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  • Industrials
Pentair plc logo
Pentair plc
PNR · GB · NYSE
84.37
USD
+0.86
(1.02%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Adrian C. Chiu Executive Vice President & President of Water Solutions 1.24M
Ms. Karla C. Robertson Executive Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer, General Counsel & Secretary 893K
Mr. Jerome O. Pedretti Executive Vice President & Chief Executive Officer of Pool 961K
Mr. Demon L. Wiggins Executive Vice President & President of Pentair Flow --
Ms. Tanya L. Hooper Executive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer 942K
Ms. Marybeth Thorsgaard Vice President of Communications --
Mr. John L. Stauch President, Chief Executive Officer & Director 2.74M
Mr. Stephen J. Pilla Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer & Chief Transformation Officer 721K
Dr. Philip M. Rolchigo Ph.D. Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer 727K
Mr. Robert P. Fishman Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer 1.57M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - M-Exempt Common Shares 12067 41.08
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - M-Exempt Common Shares 5810 42.68
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6870 45.42
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - S-Sale Common Shares 23991 84.4325
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - S-Sale Common Shares 756 84.8914
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6870 45.42
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5810 42.68
2024-05-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12067 41.08
2024-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 154 78.33
2024-03-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech D - F-InKind Common Shares 464 78.33
2024-02-19 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech A - A-Award Common Shares 1116 0
2024-02-20 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech D - F-InKind Common Shares 382 74.61
2024-02-19 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 8738 0
2024-02-20 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 560 74.61
2024-02-19 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares 15726 0
2024-02-20 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 5571 74.61
2024-02-19 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of A - A-Award Common Shares 12231 0
2024-02-20 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 4384 74.61
2024-02-19 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Common Shares 14852 0
2024-02-20 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 5243 74.61
2024-02-19 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares 4619 0
2024-02-20 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 478 74.61
2024-02-19 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares 29702 0
2024-02-20 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 13739 74.61
2024-02-19 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares 87359 0
2024-02-20 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 4832 74.61
2024-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 28 68.93
2024-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 521 68.93
2024-01-04 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 379 68.93
2024-01-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 417 68.93
2024-01-04 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 983 68.93
2024-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 406 68.93
2024-01-03 Williamson Billie Ida director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1365 68.28
2024-01-02 Williamson Billie Ida director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1330 68.28
2024-01-02 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 Speetzen Michael T director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1369 68.28
2024-01-02 Speetzen Michael T director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 Knight Gregory E. director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1330 68.28
2024-01-02 Knight Gregory E. director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1432 68.28
2024-01-02 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 Harris Theodore L director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1334 68.28
2024-01-02 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1365 68.28
2024-01-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-02 Doi Tracey director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-03 Barra Melissa director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1330 68.28
2024-01-02 Barra Melissa director A - A-Award Common Stock - Restricted Stock Units 2256 0
2024-01-02 Hooper Tanya L EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2556 0
2024-01-02 Hooper Tanya L EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 7491 70.92
2024-01-03 Hooper Tanya L EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 453 68.28
2024-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 54 68.28
2024-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5941 70.92
2024-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2027 0
2024-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 353 68.28
2024-01-02 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10074 70.92
2024-01-02 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3437 0
2024-01-02 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12398 70.92
2024-01-02 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4230 0
2024-01-03 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech D - F-InKind Common Shares 739 68.28
2024-01-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4230 0
2024-01-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12398 70.92
2024-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 410 68.28
2024-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 1236 68.28
2024-01-02 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14981 70.92
2024-01-02 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 5111 0
2024-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1056 68.28
2024-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10848 70.92
2024-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3701 0
2024-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1961 68.28
2024-01-02 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18597 70.92
2024-01-02 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 6345 0
2024-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 67157 70.92
2024-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 22913 0
2024-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 628 68.28
2023-12-14 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2427 53.49
2023-12-14 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 2427 72
2023-12-14 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (right to buy) 2427 53.49
2023-12-13 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2260 51.21
2023-12-13 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - S-Sale Common Shares 2260 67.85
2023-12-13 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2260 51.21
2023-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2260 51.21
2023-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - S-Sale Common Shares 2260 64.4
2023-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2260 51.21
2023-11-06 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 4000 60.7678
2023-09-30 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 4679 63.56
2023-08-31 Doi Tracey director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2135 0
2023-08-28 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - M-Exempt Common Shares 1179 53.49
2023-08-28 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 1021 67.23
2023-08-28 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1179 53.49
2023-08-10 Stauch John L President & CEO D - G-Gift Common Shares 141883.3779 0
2023-08-10 Stauch John L President & CEO A - G-Gift Common Shares 141883.3779 0
2023-08-15 Doi Tracey - 0 0
2023-08-07 Stauch John L President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Shares 32596 51.21
2023-08-07 Stauch John L President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Shares 32596 71.4216
2023-08-07 Stauch John L President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 32596 51.21
2023-06-01 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 18686 56.32
2023-03-02 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 202 55.48
2023-03-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 454 55.36
2023-03-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 202 55.48
2023-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 151 55.36
2023-03-02 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 273 55.48
2023-02-20 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares 1639 0
2023-02-21 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 648 54.72
2023-02-20 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 9045 0
2023-02-21 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 596 54.72
2023-02-20 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares 14570 0
2023-02-21 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 4983 54.72
2023-02-20 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Common Shares 4804 0
2023-02-21 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 1403 54.72
2023-02-20 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares 1639 0
2023-02-21 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 579 54.72
2023-02-20 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares 90435 0
2023-02-21 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 5011 54.72
2023-01-04 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 374 46.7
2023-01-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 489 46.7
2023-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 567 46.7
2023-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 27 46.7
2023-01-04 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1037 46.7
2023-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 278 46.7
2023-01-03 Hooper Tanya L EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 22538 0
2023-01-03 Hooper Tanya L EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12600 0
2023-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 20 45.2
2023-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 258 45.2
2023-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10267 0
2023-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3042 0
2023-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 5254 0
2023-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 17734 0
2023-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP Ch Sup Chn Of Ch Trnfrm Of D - F-InKind Common Shares 288 45.2
2023-01-03 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18667 0
2023-01-03 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 5531 0
2023-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 20534 0
2023-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 6084 0
2023-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Pres., Water Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 100 45.2
2023-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 26134 0
2023-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool D - F-InKind Common Shares 412 45.2
2023-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & CEO, Pool A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 7743 0
2023-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 402 45.2
2023-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 515 45.2
2023-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18667 0
2023-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 5531 0
2023-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 9679 0
2023-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 32668 0
2023-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 814 45.2
2023-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 115738 0
2023-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 34292 0
2023-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 241 45.2
2023-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 260 45.2
2023-01-03 Williamson Billie Ida director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 Williamson Billie Ida director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Speetzen Michael T director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 Speetzen Michael T director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Knight Gregory E. director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 Knight Gregory E. director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - F-InKind Common Shares 847 45.2
2023-01-03 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Harris Theodore L director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-03 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Barra Melissa director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3319 0
2023-01-03 Barra Melissa director D - F-InKind Common Shares 753 45.2
2023-01-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 4915 56.04
2023-01-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2023-01-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Common Shares 0 0
2023-01-01 Wiggins DeMon L EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. I - Common Shares - ESOP 0 0
2023-01-01 Hooper Tanya L None None - None None None
2023-01-01 Hooper Tanya L officer - 0 0
2022-12-15 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 3947 33.72
2022-12-15 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - S-Sale Common Shares 3947 45.14
2022-12-15 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3947 0
2022-12-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off A - M-Exempt Common Shares 1771 33.72
2022-12-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 1463 45.88
2022-12-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1771 0
2022-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 3947 33.72
2022-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - S-Sale Common Shares 3947 46.75
2022-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3947 0
2022-08-31 JONES DAVID A /WI D - F-InKind Common Shares 3273 44.45
2022-08-31 JONES DAVID A /WI D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3947 0
2022-08-22 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2531 33.72
2022-08-22 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 2531 47.8956
2022-08-22 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (right to buy) 2531 0
2022-08-22 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option (right to buy) 2531 33.72
2022-03-02 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 275 57.4
2022-03-01 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 141 56.04
2022-03-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 200 57.4
2022-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 346 56.04
2022-02-21 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off A - A-Award Common Shares 1178 0
2022-02-22 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 466 56.37
2022-02-21 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares 77478 0
2022-02-22 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 4284 56.37
2022-02-21 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares 13376 0
2022-02-22 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 4149 56.37
2022-02-21 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 7840 0
2022-02-22 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 3078 56.37
2022-02-21 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares 1829 0
2022-02-22 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 535 56.37
2022-01-04 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1053 71.86
2022-01-04 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions D - F-InKind Common Shares 573 71.86
2022-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 504 71.86
2022-01-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 487 71.86
2022-01-04 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 367 71.86
2022-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 26 71.86
2022-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 273 71.86
2022-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1096 70.99
2022-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 11964 70.99
2022-01-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3258 0
2022-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 3012 70.99
2022-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6790 70.99
2022-01-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 1849 0
2022-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 6075 0
2022-01-03 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 22311 70.99
2022-01-03 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3874 0
2022-01-03 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3874 0
2022-01-03 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14228 70.99
2022-01-03 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14228 70.99
2022-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2641 0
2022-01-03 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 9701 70.99
2022-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12934 70.99
2022-01-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3522 0
2022-01-03 Barra Melissa director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Knight Gregory E. director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Speetzen Michael T director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Williamson Billie Ida director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2113 0
2022-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 77605 70.99
2022-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 21130 0
2022-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 558 70.99
2022-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 1884 0
2022-01-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP CHRO Chief Transform. Off A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6920 70.99
2021-12-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 10679 73.45
2021-12-01 Barra Melissa - 0 0
2021-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6307 22.73
2021-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6307 74.8
2021-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6307 22.73
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - M-Exempt Common Shares 5858 39.88
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2990 44.11
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 8709 79.72
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - M-Exempt Common Shares 1803 53.49
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - M-Exempt Common Shares 2420 35.25
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1803 53.49
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 2990 44.11
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5858 39.88
2021-08-13 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 2420 35.25
2021-06-01 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 5577 70.46
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Shares 93930 32.83
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Shares 50616 33.72
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 68274 69.3685
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 36868 69.4143
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 50616 33.72
2021-05-10 Stauch John L President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 93930 32.83
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 11754 37.77
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 11754 37.77
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 10066 38.68
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 10066 38.68
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 9159 45.42
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 9159 45.42
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 11754 37.77
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 11754 37.77
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 9159 45.42
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 9159 45.42
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 10066 69.522
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 9159 69.5934
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 9159 69.5934
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 10066 69.522
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 11754 69.4396
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 11754 69.4396
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10066 38.68
2021-05-10 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10066 38.68
2021-05-03 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 135 65.35
2021-05-03 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 346 65.35
2021-05-03 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 164 65.35
2021-05-03 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 610 65.35
2021-05-03 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 315 65.35
2021-05-03 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 257 65.35
2021-03-12 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - G-Gift Common Shares 5246 0
2021-03-09 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - G-Gift Common Shares 8217 0
2021-03-09 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares 8217 0
2021-05-03 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 377 65.35
2021-03-12 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares 5246 0
2021-03-02 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 278 57.7
2021-03-01 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 142 58.28
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 1287 0
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5321 58.28
2021-03-02 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - F-InKind Common Shares 196 57.7
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off A - F-InKind Common Shares 208 58.28
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Common Shares 0 0
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off I - Common Shares - ESOP 0 0
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1771 33.72
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 2760 32.75
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 3254 39.88
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 3744 42.68
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 4117 41.08
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 4885 45.42
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1771 33.72
2021-03-01 Chiu Adrian C EVP & Chief Transformation Off D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1179 53.49
2021-02-15 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares 50496 0
2021-02-16 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 22370 54.82
2021-02-15 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 6644 0
2021-02-16 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 2271 54.82
2021-02-15 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 7973 0
2021-02-16 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 2727 54.82
2021-02-15 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares 8971 0
2021-02-16 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 3069 54.82
2021-02-15 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares 3545 0
2021-02-16 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 1288 54.82
2021-02-15 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares 1993 0
2021-02-16 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - F-InKind Common Shares 655 54.82
2021-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 100293 51.53
2021-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 24258 0
2021-01-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 560 51.53
2021-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4366 0
2021-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18053 51.53
2021-01-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, GC, Secretary & CSRO D - F-InKind Common Shares 1138 51.53
2021-01-04 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3396 0
2021-01-04 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14041 51.53
2021-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2426 0
2021-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 10029 51.53
2021-01-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 290 51.53
2021-01-04 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3396 0
2021-01-04 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14041 51.53
2021-01-04 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 928 51.53
2021-01-04 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3396 0
2021-01-04 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 14041 51.53
2021-01-04 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 1046 51.53
2021-01-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 17050 51.53
2021-01-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4124 0
2021-01-04 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4852 0
2021-01-04 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 20059 51.53
2021-01-04 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 8248 0
2021-01-04 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 34100 51.53
2021-01-04 Williamson Billie Ida director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 Williamson Billie Ida director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director D - F-InKind Common Shares 221 51.53
2021-01-04 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 Speetzen Michael T director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 Speetzen Michael T director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 Harris Theodore L director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 Harris Theodore L director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - F-InKind Common Shares 133 51.53
2021-01-04 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-04 Knight Gregory E. director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2717 0
2021-01-01 Knight Gregory E. - 0 0
2020-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 4225 24.64
2020-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - S-Sale Common Shares 4225 52.35
2020-12-01 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4225 24.64
2020-10-26 Stauch John L President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Shares 60717 22.73
2020-10-26 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 43082 50.03
2020-10-26 Stauch John L President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 60717 22.73
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6307 22.73
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 4225 24.64
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - S-Sale Common Shares 4225 51.79
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6307 51.73
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6307 22.73
2020-10-23 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4225 24.64
2020-10-12 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6307 22.73
2020-10-12 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 4225 24.64
2020-10-12 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - S-Sale Common Shares 10532 50
2020-10-12 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4225 24.64
2020-10-12 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6307 22.73
2020-10-05 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director D - F-InKind Common Shares 563 46.19
2020-09-30 Pilla Stephen J EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 13109 0
2020-08-03 Pilla Stephen J officer - 0 0
2020-06-01 D'Ovidio Mario R EVP & Pres, Consumer Solutions A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 19241 0
2020-06-01 Fishman Robert P EVP, CFO & CAO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 38481 0
2020-05-18 Stauch John L President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Shares 54678 24.64
2020-05-18 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 45513 35.9641
2020-05-18 Stauch John L President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 54678 24.64
2020-05-04 D'Ovidio Mario R officer - 0 0
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Common Shares 0 0
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. I - Common Shares - Deferral Plan 0 0
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 2420 35.25
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 1803 53.49
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 2990 44.11
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5858 39.88
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 6870 45.42
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 5810 42.68
2020-05-04 Pedretti Jerome O EVP & Pres., Ind. & Flow Tech. D - Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 12067 41.08
2020-05-01 Fishman Robert P officer - 0 0
2020-05-04 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 317 34.48
2020-05-04 Robertson Karla C EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Shares 424 34.48
2020-05-04 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 1399 34.48
2020-05-04 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 257 34.48
2020-05-04 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 377 34.48
2020-05-04 BORIN MARK C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Shares 568 34.48
2020-05-04 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 355 34.48
2020-03-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 125 41.08
2020-02-28 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 246 39.39
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 26559 32.83
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 2979 44.56
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 13217 44.669
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 15184 33.72
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 24538 44.7303
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 26559 32.83
2020-02-21 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 15184 33.72
2020-02-03 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 19368 22.81
2020-02-03 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 24 43.36
2020-02-03 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 19321 43.38
2020-02-03 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 19368 22.81
2020-02-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 17761 22.73
2020-02-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Shares 15740 24.64
2020-02-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Shares 33501 43.4995
2020-02-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 15740 24.64
2020-02-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 17761 22.73
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2424 0
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 2424 0
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 11307 46.42
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 11307 46.42
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 426 46.42
2020-01-02 Rolchigo Philip M. EVP & Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 426 46.42
2020-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3905 0
2020-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18217 46.42
2020-01-02 Robertson Karla C EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Shares 632 46.42
2020-01-02 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3231 0
2020-01-02 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 15076 46.42
2020-01-02 BAKER KELLY A EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 501 46.42
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3635 0
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3635 0
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 16961 46.42
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 16961 46.42
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 2188 46.42
2020-01-02 JACKO JOHN H EVP & Chief Growth Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 2188 46.42
2020-01-02 Wamsley James P EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 18845 46.42
2020-01-02 Wamsley James P EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 4039 0
2020-01-03 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 884 45.98
2020-01-02 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 5005 46.42
2020-01-02 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 40831 46.42
2020-01-02 Frykman Karl R. EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Shares- Restricted Stock Units 8752 0
2020-01-02 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 35178 46.42
2020-01-03 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 293 45.98
2020-01-02 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares 3189 46.42
2020-01-02 BORIN MARK C EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 7540 0
2020-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (right to buy) 113071 46.42
2020-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 24235 0
2020-01-03 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 2151 45.98
2020-01-02 Stauch John L President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares 10516 46.42
2020-01-02 Williamson Billie Ida director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 Williamson Billie Ida director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 Stephenson Mona Abutaleb director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 Speetzen Michael T director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 Speetzen Michael T director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 Harris Theodore L director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 Harris Theodore L director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 ESCULIER JACQUES director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1661 46.42
2020-01-02 ESCULIER JACQUES director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2020-01-02 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - F-InKind Common Shares 1430 46.42
2020-01-02 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 3016 0
2019-12-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6116 22.24
2019-12-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6116 44.23
2019-12-02 GLENN T MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (right to buy) 6116 22.24
2019-12-02 Wamsley James P EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer A - A-Award Common Shares - Restricted Stock Units 13702 0
2019-11-11 JONES DAVID A /WI director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6116 22.24
2019-11-11 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6116 43.1072
2019-11-11 JONES DAVID A /WI director D - M-Exempt Director Stock Option (right to buy) 6116 22.24
2019-11-04 Wamsley James P officer - 0 0
2019-11-01 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6116 22.24
2019-11-01 BRYAN GLYNIS director A - M-Exempt Common Shares 6116 22.24
2019-11-01 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6116 42
2019-11-01 BRYAN GLYNIS director D - S-Sale Common Shares 6116 42
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Pentair Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, and welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair investor relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance, in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent form 10-Q and form 10-K. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Please limit your questions to two and reenter the queue if needed to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. As a reminder, you can reference our Pentair investor overview and investor day presentations on our IR website. Please visit our Pentair Investor relations website and click on events and presentations to find these materials. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly, and good morning everyone. Let's begin with our record Q2 results in the executive summary on slide four. During the second quarter, we achieved record sales, adjusted operating income, return on sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash Flow following the separation of nVent from Pentair in 2018 and we delivered these results on top of a record from the prior year period. I would like to thank our 10,000 plus Pentair employees for their continued commitment towards delivering for our customers and creating value for our shareholders. We worked tirelessly and impressively to deliver another quarter of remarkable income growth and margin expansion. Thank you. In Q2 sales increased 2%, adjusted operating income increased 16%, ROS expanded by 310 basis points, driven by margin expansion across all three segments. Adjusted EPS rose 18% and free cash Flow was over $500 million. Driven by a disciplined capital allocation strategy and record free cash Flow. We continue to strengthen the balance sheet and we purchased $50 million worth of stock in the second quarter. We also continue to elevate our dividend. As a dividend aristocrat we have increased our dividend to shareowners for 48 consecutive years. As we look to the remainder of the year, we are increasing our adjusted EPS and ROS guidance. This is driven by our strong results in the first half of this year and continued confidence in our ability to execute in a dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical environment while implementing and executing on our major initiative transformation now inclusive of 80/20. Our expected 2024 EPS increased to approximately $4.25. This represents the high end of our previous guidance. Bob will provide more details later in the call. We believe our record second quarter performance demonstrates the power of our sustainable and balanced water portfolio, as well as strong execution across all three segments, Flow, Water Solutions and Pool. Our strategy to help the world sustainably move, improve and enjoy water, life's most essential resource, continues to prove its resilience and we believe we are well positioned to capture opportunities from favorable secular trends such as water availability, with growing concerns over access to clean, safe and reliable water, increased awareness of water challenges led by growing concerns around human made contaminants impacting water composition, taste and water quality. Growing environmental concerns as consumers are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and impact on the environment, aging commercial, public and municipal infrastructure. Outdoor healthy living as people are interested in gathering at pools to exercise, stay cool and have fun and favorable housing migration to the Sunbelt states, which represents a large mix of our Pool sales. Let's turn to slide five. Over the last 90 plus days, we've seen reports that suggest a continuation of slower global growth throughout the remainder of the year. As we look at each of our three segments and the verticals within each, we believe that there are areas of great opportunity and some that we expect to remain slightly pressured. All in this is where we believe our balanced water portfolio diversifies the risk and enables us to control what we can and mitigate challenges where possible. For example, in Flow, we reached record sales within commercial and have seen higher activity from IIJA funding on infrastructure projects. Higher interest rates in a slow housing market continued to impact our residential vertical and our industrial vertical has experienced some delay in CapEx spending by some key customers. Within Water Solutions, our North America commercial filtration business remains strong and our commercial Ice business performed as expected while international has been impacted by economic pressures. Residential continue to be impacted by higher interest rates. That said, we are really excited about the launch of our first commercial PFAS certified filtration product in Q2, which further expanded our existing PFAS certified filtration product line. Customers showed strong interest in wanting to learn more about this product. We are proud of this new innovation and the teams that brought this product to market. With heightened awareness on water quality and interest in point of use filtration, we are excited to see this product line grow long term. Lastly, in Pool sustained higher interest rates in a slower housing market have continued to impact Pool demand, predominantly in new and remodeled Pools. New in ground Pools built in 2024 are now expected to be near the 60,000 Pool range compared to roughly 72,000 in 2023 and roughly 78,000 in 2019. Given this economic weakness, our recent dealer survey noted that the industry is expecting slightly lower growth than it did 90 plus days ago. However, our aftermarket business performed well in Q2, which in part drove double digit Pool sales growth for Pentair. Despite the near-term economic challenges for the Pool industry, we remain confident in Pentair’s ability to drive long term growth and margin expansion. We believe it remains a very attractive industry with mega trends that are in our favor. A majority of our revenue is concentrated in five Sunbelt states, which are benefiting from the higher migration to warmer weather. We're also seeing a trend toward lifestyle and wellness, with family and friends gathering outdoors and Pools for exercise and to have fun. As climate change remains a top concern, Pentair is well positioned for secular trends and preferences for smart, sustainable products. We are the pioneers in introducing variable speed pumps which save energy and money. Let's turn to slide six. Last quarter, I mentioned that our transformation initiatives remained on track to deliver margin expansion as we highlighted at our March investor Day. Approximately 50% of our total revenue has adopted and implemented value based pricing as part of our strategic pricing initiatives, we are well into wave two of our sourcing initiatives, which is beginning to drive benefits in our financial results and we have continued to drive operational footprint optimization and plan to continue this going forward. In Q2, transformation drove record quarterly productivity. Additionally, we trained about 1000 employees on 80/20, reflecting about 50% of Pentair’s revenue streams. We're starting to execute on some quick wins and continue to see larger longer-term opportunities as we expect 80/20 to further enable our transformation success. It is important to recognize that reducing complexity of low value products for lower value customers is the premise of 80/20. By doing this, resources are freed up. That should allow us to perform better for the core customers who buy our core products. When we do this, we expect to see higher core growth rates in our businesses longer term. I'm excited about the initial fact based data that we have analyzed and I am encouraging the business leaders to move quickly to exit their complexity and focus on the core. We expect to have a further update on our progress and the impact on 2025 after we have completed the initial training and implemented the actions across the entire Pentair portfolio, which we expect to complete by the end of 2024. Before I turn it over to Bob, let's turn to slide seven. We continue to drive strong margin expansion and operating income dollars through transformation despite economic weakness. Our transformation initiatives are well underway and our 80/20 analysis kicked off in recent months with strategic actions that are in the early stages. We have increased confidence in our long-term value creation and we expect to deliver ROS of approximately 23%, about 100 basis points higher than previously guided, and about 13% adjusted EPS growth in 2024. All in, we continue to build a strong foundation that we expect to drive long term growth and profitability across our diverse water portfolio. I will now pass the call over to Bob who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning everyone. Let's start on slide eight. We delivered another strong quarter of quality earnings. Sales rose 2% to $1.1 billion, while adjusted operating income increased 16% to $271 million. ROS expanded 310 basis points to 24.7%, driven by sales growth and transformation. All three metrics achieved new records post the separation of nVent from Pentair in 2018. Core sales were up 2% year-over-year, driven by 18% growth in Pool, which was somewhat offset by a 3% decline in Flow and a 7% decline in Water Solutions. Both Flow and Water Solutions reported record sales in the prior year period due to supply chain improvement and our ability to ship a large portion of backlog orders. Sales across all three segments increased sequentially from Q1 as expected, our second quarter sales have typically been our highest sales quarter of the year. We are very pleased to see Pool return to growth for the first time in eight quarters. All three segments drove significant margin expansion in the second quarter. Lastly, we delivered record adjusted EPS of $1.22 post the nVent split, which exceeded the high end of our guidance by $0.05 and was up 18% year-over-year. Please turn to slide nine. Flow sales declined 4% year-over-year compared to a record quarter last year. Residential sales declined 10% as compared to the prior year quarter, but reflected an improvement sequentially from Q1. Commercial sales rose 2% compared to a record prior year. Industrial sales were flat in Q2, reflecting our decision to discontinue certain projects that no longer met our profitability criteria. Segment income grew 13% and return on sales expanded 310 basis points to 21.3%, marking the first time ROS has reached or exceeded 21%. The strong margin expansion was a result of continued progress on our transformation initiatives. Please turn to slide 10. In Q2 Water Solutions sales declined 8% to $311 million, driven by declines in both commercial and residential. We expected our commercial business to be down in light of a record prior year comparison driven by Manitowoc Ice's ability to work through a significant portion of backlog orders. We were pleased with filtration sales strength in Q2. Segment income declined 3% to $73 million and return on sales expanded 130 basis points to 23.5%, driven primarily by transformation which continued to drive operational efficiencies as well as mix. This was the ninth consecutive quarter of ROS expansion. Margins have expanded nearly 900 basis points over the last two years. Please turn to slide 11. In Q2, Pool sales increased 17% to $392 million. Segment income was $134 million, up 27% and return on sales increased 270 basis points to 34.1%, driven by sales growth and transformation. Please turn to slide 12. At our investor day in March, we shared our updated three-year margin targets. We expect 2026 ROS to expand to 24% over 540 basis points as compared to 2022, driven by contributions from all four of our key transformation initiatives, pricing, sourcing, operations and organization. And we have the opportunity to do even better as we discussed at our March investor day. In 2023, we achieved ROS of 20.8% and expect to continue to drive margin expansion to approximately 23% by year end 2024, an increase of nearly 100 basis points from our previous guidance. Please turn to slide 13. As we mentioned in our March Investor Day, we expect 80/20 to enable and accelerate our transformation initiatives. It's another tool in our toolkit to help our businesses enhance the customer experience and reduce complexity. The 80/20 analysis uses a quadrant based strategy to assess customers and products. Simplistically, the first quadrant reflects a combination of customers and products, which drive a majority of revenue and profit. Conversely, the fourth quadrant reflects customers and products that represent roughly 4% of revenue but includes 15% to 25% of total cost to serve. We expect to focus on customer segmentation over product segmentation to enable us to implement customer strategies based on each quadrant. As a result, we can take specific actions tailored to each quadrant to drive higher and more profitable growth over time. To date, we have assessed about 50% of our total revenue using 80/20 and are currently evaluating this analysis and developing action plans. 80/20 is about treating our customers fairly but differently depending on the circumstances. The objectiveness of the data frees the organization to make the right decisions. We expect to see the largest benefit from 80/20 in operations. However, we also believe G&A and new product introductions will be impacted by the fourth quadrant due to the effort required to serve. We expect this to benefit our organizational excellence efforts as well. We believe the 80/20 analysis is a great complement to our transformation program. We expect to see a noticeable contribution in 2025 as these plans are rolled out. I'm excited about the process and the findings, and I expect it to lead to larger transformation opportunities. Please turn to slide 14. In Q2 we achieved record free cash flow of $522 million. We deployed capital to lower our long-term debt, restart share repurchases and pay our quarterly dividend. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 600,000 shares for a total of $50 million. We have an additional $550 million available on our share repurchase program. Our net debt leverage ratio was 1.6 times down, significantly from 2.2 times in the prior year period. Our ROIC was nearly 15%. Long term, we continue to target high teens return on invested capital. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment and share repurchases. As I mentioned last quarter, with the net debt leverage ratio within our target range, we have additional flexibility to strategically allocate additional capital to areas with the highest shareholder returns. Moving to slide 15. For the full year, we are increasing our adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.25, which is up roughly 13% year-over-year and is at the high end of our previous guidance range. Also, for the full year, we expect sales to be approximately flat to down 1%, driven by a continued sluggish economy. The second half of 2024 reflects the anticipated reality of a continued higher interest rate environment and its impact on the global economic landscape. For Pentair, this means we are lowering the back half revenue expectations by about $120 million at the midpoint of our guidance. About $30 million of this is in Pool, which reflects the expectation of primarily slower Pool builds and remodels. About $30 million is in Water Solutions and is in lower margin commercial services and global water treatment end markets and about $60 million in Flow is primarily related to residential delayed industrial projects and being more focused around standardized offerings and recurring revenue to drive higher profitability. We now expect Flow and Water Solution sales to be down approximately low single digits and Pool sales to be up approximately mid-single digits for the full year. Within Flow, we expect residential to be down approximately high single digits, commercial to be up approximately mid-single digits and industrial to be roughly flat as we continue to be selective around certain projects. Within Water Solutions, we expect residential to be down approximately low to mid-single digits and commercial to be down approximately low-single digits, primarily due to services. We're also updating expected adjusted operating income to approximately increase 10% to 11%. We are pleased to be able to increase our adjusted EPS guidance despite the lower revenue, we are increasing expected transformation savings to approximately $100 million for 2024 as compared to $75 million in our previous guidance, driven by higher productivity. We expect to improve our mix of higher margin businesses and continue our focus on pricing initiatives to offset inflation. Due to a continued sluggish economy we expect sales to be down approximately 2% to 3% for the third quarter, but adjusted operating income to increase 10% to 12%. We are also introducing strong adjusted EPS guidance for the third quarter of approximately $1.06 to $1.08, up roughly 14% at the midpoint. Before I turn the call over to the operator for questions, I want to say how pleased we are with our second quarter record performance. Our teams have been working diligently and effectively to mitigate uncontrolled risk like continued global economic pressures, while working to deliver strong financial results and executing our major initiative transformation, which now includes 80/20. We are very proud of the hard work and dedication of our entire Pentair team. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question-and-answer session. In the interest of time, once again, that we do ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow up. [Operator Instructions] At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. And our first question today comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning, everyone. Nice quarter. John or Bob, can you give us more color regarding what you're seeing in Pool and your assumptions for break and fix and remodeling? I think you mentioned a strong aftermarket, weaker remodeling, we obviously know what you're thinking for new Pools, but could you talk about your selling assumptions to the channel? How concerned are you? Or where you're baking in for inventories in the channel at this point for '24?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, I'll go ahead and start with that one. Andy, thanks for the question. Again, from our perspective, we started the year saying Pool would grow approximately 7% full year. We've now guided that to up mid-single digits. As a reminder, a significant piece of our growth is coming from the fact that last year's inventories correction will not be happening this year. Plus a couple of points of price and then an assumption that says the overall market's down roughly mid-single digits. And so that's how we get to our mid-single digit growth for the year. From our last earnings call, we have seen a little bit of pressure on new Pool builds and remodels. And that was the reason why we brought our guide down for the Pool season.
John Stauch:
Andy, I would just add that as a reminder. We had a really easy compare in Q2 versus a, a really low number last year. And so the growth rate in Q2 is more reflective of last year's performance than it is of anything that is outside the performance of this year.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
That's helpful guys. And then obviously, your transformation impact is impressive in raising the productivity to $100 million. But you talked about 80-20. How much of it all is that sort of helping '24? It seems like it's early days. And you've got the 23% target for this year and 24% target for '26. So does it give you a little bit more confidence towards maybe that upside case as you go into '26, any thoughts on how 80-20 could impact '25, for example?
John Stauch:
Yes. So first of all, 80-20 was not in our 2026 Investor Day longer-term targets. Very little of it is included in our 2024 update guidance. We completed the training sessions and the fact-based analysis on roughly half of our revenue streams. And we'll have the other half done in roughly the next 90 days. So we're very encouraged with what we're learning and finding and it does give us confidence that we can continue to improve margins as we go forward.
Robert Fishman:
We were very pleased to be able to increase the transformation savings from $75 million to $100 million. Think of that as primarily coming from our sourcing savings with also our manufacturing and org excellence piece helping as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Bryan Blair from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead with your question.
Bryan Blair :
Thank you. Good morning. Very solid quarter. To follow up on transformation, obviously, benefits accelerated in the quarter, you have stepped up the full year guide. Just mentioned that it's primarily from sourcing. So, should we think that there's somewhat waiting to the Pool segment in the back half in terms of contribution? And just overall, with that step up, how should we think it's Q3, Q4 waiting?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. From our perspective, in terms of the guide we gave for Q3 and then the implicit guide for Q4, we'll see significant ROS expansion in both quarters. We do think that the main beneficiaries in the back half will be the Pool business and Flow followed by Water Solutions.
Bryan Blair :
Understood. And I was wondering if you could parse out the commercial Water Solutions revenue decline in Q2 across Everpure, Menis and KBI, and then what you're anticipating in the back half by business line. We know and I said, in particular, a very challenging comp in Q2. Just curious what you're seeing there and what's factored into the outlook now?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean most of the decline that we're seeing in Water Solutions is coming from not participating in low-value service contracts within our KBI services arm, and we're adjusting our revenue down to reflect that. That would be roughly a $20 million adjustment for the year. The rest of it is filtration grew double digit in Q2 and they're having a really strong year. And the Manitowoc Ice business continues to perform to expectations. And as a reminder, we were just under $450 million of revenue last year. We'll be just in the low 420s this year. So we're managing through a really decent execution despite having those record backlogs last year that we ended up shipping. So I feel really good about Water Solutions business. We are tweaking our global residential water treatment business, reflecting some of the lower revenue streams and non-U.S. related businesses. And that's a small adjustment here, but I think it's reflected that we don't think that those will improve in the back half of the year.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. And just as a reminder, the North America filtration business, the Ice business, those are very profitable ROS businesses for us. So, the mix certainly works in our favor.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey, good morning. Can you just maybe talk about the pricing environment that you're seeing out there and how that should trend over the course of the year. It looks like -- I don't know you're assuming maybe one to two points for the year.
John Stauch:
That is correct, Steve. And I don't think we should expect that we're going to outperform that between now and the rest of the year. I think we're -- there's pockets of being able to recover some of the incremental inflationary areas, but we don't feel that inflation is significant enough to go out with another round of pricing. So we're generally doing the best we can and that the original list prices. And I think so far, so good.
Stephen Tusa:
Do you, at any point in time, see price going like flat to down and Pool at all?
Robert Fishman:
No. We do not see that happening. At the halfway point, we have -- of the year, we have two points of price reading out, and I expect something similar in the back half.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Great. And then just on the bridge, the productivity was pretty solid this quarter. What are you guys expecting for the year now on that number? I think it was like $75 million before. some of these numbers around it, but what do you guys expect for the year?
Robert Fishman:
$100 million now in my prepared remarks, and you can think about that as roughly split between -- evenly between Q3 and Q4.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Lee:
Hey, guys, thanks for taking the questions. Good morning. I guess maybe a follow-up on the last one. You raised the kind of transformation benefits from the $75 million to $100 million. I know you don't have much, if any, of the 80-20 in '24, but can you give us some sense, any sense of sort of how it would compare just your initial read on 80-20 impact into '25 when you kind of compare and contrast to what you've been able to do with the transformation initiatives this year going from $75 million to $100 million?
John Stauch:
Yes. Let me hit the transmission real quickly. I think it's fair to say we always had an internal funnel that was higher than what we had confidence with in the beginning of the year internal side. And I think the $100 million now reflects that most of the programs that we had in the internal funnel are now being realized. And so that's where our confidence level is as we exited Q2. As a reminder, we had difficult year-over-year in transformation in Q1, and we had a very strong Q2, and now we feel confident in what that full year expectation is. When we look at 80-20, I think it's important to note that the way the math works is that what we call Quad 4, which is the lowest performing quadrant. These would be less desirable products to lesser desirable customers. That's roughly usually around 4% of revenue. So just to think about that, that frames on a $4 billion-ish revenue stream, what the walkaway revenue number would be at its worst possible scenario. That same quadrant generally usually reflects about 25% of the company's cost structure. Now you're not going to get all that 25% out because clearly utilizing pieces of people's work efforts, but it starts to tell you about how it's non-profitable being Quadrant four. So, as you release yourself from the products that you're spending a lot of time on, you should ultimately be able to reduce your labor and reduce or redirect your NPI and your sales and marketing efforts to your Quad one to generally over-serve or create a better service level to your top customers, which gives you an overall better core rates. So we don't have that figured out for all the businesses yet, but the math is not going to be any different for Pentair than it is for everybody else who goes through the program. And it's really encouraging and gives us a lot of optimism that the whole another list of transformation ideas as we head into 2025.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. From my perspective, it brings tremendous focus to the things that really matter allows us to be seek perfection in QUADRA one with our best customers and best products and really to reduce complexity and simplify the business in quad 4.
Brian Lee:
Okay. Super helpful. Appreciate the color. And then, Bob, you mentioned on the guidance walk on revenue. The $120 million at the midpoint that's coming out versus prior guide. Is there any percentage of that, which is being driven by exiting some of these less profitable business lines, just a more proactive approach to kind of how you're structuring the revenue goal for this year versus it all just being market driven? Thanks, guys.
Robert Fishman:
I would say in the revenue reduction, there's nothing significant relating to 80-20. There happens to be lower profit revenue streams as we're more selective within Flow as commercial services comes down, those would be helping the overall mix. But nothing yet directly related to 80-20.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Just on Water Solutions, a couple of questions. One, the commercial filtration, you called out is strong. Is that just attachment synergies from or is it something more broad than that? And then just speak to commercial foodservice. In general, we're seeing kind of a weaker consumer or mixed results out of Starbucks, et cetera, what you're seeing in general there?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. I would say we're starting the synergies coming from that Manitowoc Ice acquisition really benefiting our North America filtration business. Again, we have the opportunity to visit distributors and dealers and talk about the breadth of our offering. We have the opportunity to cross-sell products. And we have an opportunity to go to market in a different way, whether it's setting up at a trade show and selling both Everpure and Ice. Those are all the benefits that are accruing to the filtration business this year.
John Stauch:
And I think this is John. Jeff, to answer your question, I mean, we do a lot of quick serve. And even though the traffic may be a little more challenged from time to time, it's relatively a stable industry. when it comes to the replacement side and the step-through for our related products.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay. And then just to put a finer point on Pool, just give me a sense, post some of the pre-announcements, just what feedback you're getting on nVentory levels, kind of this absence of destock and if it's a little bit less or just a little more color on that.
John Stauch:
Yes. I'd say, first of all, I mean, we're disappointed in the new Pool build for the year. I mean, we're almost near historical lows and pretty close to where we were in the '08-'09 financial crisis, Jeff. So I mean we're looking for the movement in interest rates to really start to spur the remodeling side and hopefully begin to get people to move homes and think about Pools as part of that attachment. Overall, on the way the segmentation works, we do really on the high end and high end is still strong. That's generally a cash buyer, and they're utilizing retirement income to -- or retirement of funds to buy the dream home in the Sunbelt states. It's really the mid-market and some of the remodeling that we believe has slowed. And so as we mentioned in our remarks, our dealer pulse would suggest that it's a little less optimistic here as we enter the second half of the year than we saw in the first half of the year, which is why we adjusted our guide downward by a couple of points.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone. It's -- you mentioned in the prepared remarks that Flow was seeing some of the government stimulus coming through. Can you provide any color there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean I think it's just overall, we're really pleased with the fact that there's been a fair amount of infrastructure spend and we focused our activity there, had some solid marketing programs to focus on where that got an expansion is. And I think we feel really pleased that we're participating in that segment right now.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And what kind of contribution are you expecting for the second half in that stimulus?
John Stauch:
Yes, not much at all. It's modest. We called it out as a particular area of the economy that continues to be invested in. And I'm sure you're struggling with some of that road construction and infrastructure spending as well as we all are here in the summer construction season, but it's been nice to participate in that and see a little bright spot from the government funding in that area, which offsets some of the lack of interest rate benefits we're getting elsewhere.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Saree Boroditsky from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Saree Boroditsky:
Good morning. This is James on for Saree. Thanks for taking questions. So I kind of wanted to touch on Pool here. So like very strong growth in 2Q. Can you kind of break it down by like what's the contribution from alibi, -- what was the selling and sales through?
John Stauch:
Yes. Sell-in and the sell-through about flat in the quarter for us. And the rest of what happened in Q2 was the year-over-year comparison really wouldn't happen, which was last year, there was a sizable at 5% inventory correction in this year generally sell-in matched sell-out.
Saree Boroditsky:
Got it. Thanks. And I wanted to kind of understand the Pool guidance a little bit better. So you delivered a lot of like pre-buy in second quarter 2024. So how should we think about the 4Q this year? Like what does the guidance to pre-buy?
John Stauch:
So as a reminder, the prebuy starts in Q3 and Q4 of the previous year, and we take those orders ahead of the price increases for the next Pool year. Right now, we have what we'd say is a modestly down to normalized environment as we look forward in 2025, reflecting that we think that we won't really see benefits from lower interest rates across the residential businesses probably second half of 2025.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Buscaglia from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.
Andrew Buscaglia:
Hey, good morning, guys. Just wanted to -- you're talking more about those 80-20 costs or transformation costs accelerating where like, specifically within each segment, in Pool in particular, are you finding this beneficial to one segment versus any other? And then if you could just talk more about details, maybe specifically for Pool in that regard?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean it has got the same math-based equation for every revenue stream we look at. I just want to start there. And it is roughly 4% to 5% of your revenue falls in that lower right quadrant, which is, again, the less-desirable products to the lesser desirable customers. It won't be any different. It is straight math, and it will be the same. It's harder for a Pool to execute on because they're Quadrant 4 reflective of their overall margins is a significantly higher margin than what we're seeing in some of the other businesses. So it gets a little bit more challenging to exit quickly because you fall in love with the fact that you still are making money in that quadrant in a business like Pool. The reality is that by serving that quadrant, you're taking away from your performance to your top customers, and you're taking away from your ability to produce new products and new sales and marketing programs around those top products. So it will have the same impact across the entire organization. I would say right now, Pool is a little bit more challenged in how to deal with Quadrant 4 and the other businesses who are in a lower profitability standpoint can move faster to eliminate Quad 4. Does that answer your question?
Andrew Buscaglia:
Yes. Yes, very helpful. Okay. Yes, that's interesting. And then the -- your cash Flow was really strong this quarter and seemingly a little more profitability as we exit year. What are you thinking about in terms of capital allocation at this point? Has there anything changed there? Any thoughts on a buyback and/or M&A?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. Again, very pleased with our free cash Flow generation in the quarter, over $500 million. What that's allowed us to do is pay down close to $300 million of debt in the first half of the year. We've been able to restart our share repurchases in the second quarter. And I'll also continue to pay the dividend. If you think back about when we closed the Manitowoc Ice acquisition back in July of 2022, our leverage was in the high 2s. We've now delevered down to 1.6x and created a lot of optionality for the company to drive shareholder value. So, paying down variable debt continues to make sense at the interest rates that we see continuing to offset dilution. But we'll obviously have a nice problem to have come the end of the year where we're below our target net debt to EBITDA. So again, lots of options around accelerating share repurchases or potentially bolt-on M&A.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Jones from Stifel. Please go ahead with your question.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask a couple of questions on the 80-20 initiative. You guys -- one of the comments you made was you're going to focus on customer segmentation versus product segmentation. Can you just talk a little bit more about what goes into that decision, how it manifests itself at Pentair? Is it a little bit easier to focus on customers versus products? So just like what goes into that decision?
John Stauch:
Yes, I appreciate the question. No, it's harder actually. And I think it's the right way to do it and the only way to really do 80-20 is because ultimately, your customers are determining what parts you're selling and why you're selling those parts. Nathan, we talked about, this usually self create your own complexity. I mean we did design and introduce all these parts. So we have to take accountability for that. But really, as Bob said, we're going to treat our customers fairly and basically differentiate how we serve them. And so not all our customers are buying quantities and not all our customers are buying the same levels of transportation and expectations. So it is harder. It takes longer because we have to have honest and fair and transparent pricing across the customer base. And then we have to work the rebates and the volume discounts accordingly, which takes time to work its way through. And that's what we're doing, and we're going to do it, obviously, legally and compliantly, but we're making sure that we notify everybody that at the end of the day, we can't give everybody the same on delivery. We can't give them the same volume purchases because it gets really complex to someone who's not buying the right quantities.
Nathan Jones:
Makes sense. I guess next question, 80-20 typically will create some near-term headwinds to revenue. It may increase the revenue growth in the long term, but that quite for getting that Quad 4 out usually create some near-term headwinds to revenue, got FY '24 guidance that's flat to down a little bit. Should we start to think about a base case where the 2026 target that reached with lower revenue and higher margins and get to somewhere around the same point but with a different pathway than originally targeted?
John Stauch:
I'll answer your question quickly. That is a possibility, Nathan. I don't know that yet, obviously. I mean we framed it, and I shared with you that in the near term of walking away from Quad 4 could be 4% to 5% total revenue. What we don't know yet is usually in any short-term period, there would be a little bit of a pullback, but you would get the cost out and therefore, the margin lift. What we would hope that this leads to though is a faster core growth rate because we're able to give the products and customer experiences to our top customers and grow greater than our historical growth rate. Bob and I don't know what that math looks like yet to go across the portfolio. I do think it increases our confidence level of what ROS could be. And certainly, we feel like this will be additive -- at the same time, you're probably not wrong on the fact that some of our dollar growth that we might have forecasted in 2026 could be lower.
Robert Fishman:
Yes, I would agree with that. I think we end up with higher quality revenue, higher margin revenue. We remain fanatically focused on Quadrant 1, and we improve lead times, quality, on-time delivery. We have our best service teams working with our best customers. How can that not help drive growth in Quadrant 1. So our view overall is we end up net better on the top line and then continue to drive ROS expansion through reducing the costs and Quadrant 4.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just a first around some of the operating profit levers. So just to understand, I think it's $30 million a quarter of productivity savings in the second half. And then the assumption would be you've still got good transformation waves into next year plus the 80-20. So that $30 million a quarter run rate is a sort of reasonable placeholder starting out next year. I just wanted to check ahead that right. And sort of unrelated price net of inflation was a headwind to op profit year-on-year in Q2. Is that quantum of headwind expected to remain steady through the back half?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. I would say I'll take the second one first. I mean at the turn year-to-date, we're slightly below price versus inflation. Prices read out around $40 million, inflation at $47 million. So inflation continues to be running a little higher than what we thought. I would say in the back half, our goal is to catch up and end the year, roughly speaking, price equaling inflation. On the run rate going into next year for transformation, too early to kind of give a calendarized view of that, but transformation will be significant next year in 2025 and certainly help us accelerate our ROS expansion goals.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Damian Karas from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Damian Karas:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Congrats on the transformation progress.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Damian Karas:
So first, just a follow-up to some of your earlier comments on Pool, the business being up year-over-year for the first time in a few years, but underlying markets still kind of down for the rest of the year, which would kind of suggest like an extended 3-year down cycle more or less, I'm just curious, given channels being kind of more or less normalized now, what do you think a market recovery looks like for Pool presumably in 2025?
John Stauch:
Yes, it's too early to tell yet. I do think I agree with all your earlier comments. It has been a 3-year cycle. And quite frankly, when you look point to point, it's one in which we don't yet agree that there's been any type of pull-in or anything related to COVID. We definitely think that we'll start seeing new Pool builds increase from this level as we head forward in '25 and beyond. And we're hoping to get more to that historical level, which would be just somewhere around 90,000 -- 80,000, 90,000 a year, kind of lead and aided by the interest rates starting to ease. I think overall, still pleased that we're growing year-over-year despite the challenges. And I think from this point forward, we think we're returning to growth.
Damian Karas:
Okay. I appreciate your thoughts. And then you've called out the launch of your first commercial PFAS product as well as expansion of the existing PFAS product line. I know you haven't necessarily put a number around the PFAS opportunity. But maybe if you could just speak to that, would you say that's firmly in your mid-single-digit sales target over the medium term? Or is there maybe some upside there?
John Stauch:
No, I think it helps. I think it's slightly in that. I mean, it's going to be in that mid-single digit. It gives customers a reason to want to continue to partner with us and our strong brand and our value propositions in the industry. We've been working hard to make sure that all of our food service-related customers understand the value of a high-quality water. And I think that segment of the market definitely understands it. But as we start to expand our Ice footprint and certainly expand our water drinking footprint. We want to make sure that all the other adjacencies also understand the value of a higher filtration capabilities. So we're very excited about the offering, and we're starting to make sure that we title that value proposition to the ones that aren't directly serving a customer who's coming in for a food-related drink or beverage. I think schools, institutions think about that as the backdrop.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Krill from Duetsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Andrew Krill :
Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. I don't believe it's been touched obviously, but for 3Q and the guidance for sales down 2% to 3%, now you can help us with expectations by segment there for the sales growth, just I think the inflection from growth to being down that much as a little surprising, say maybe Water Solutions and Flow, kind of down that low single-digit area. And that Pool is really what's Flowing into the third quarter?
Robert Fishman:
For Q3 and that down 2% to 3% guide, we expect Pool to be up slightly and for Flow and Water Solutions to be down slightly.
Andrew Krill :
Great. Very helpful. And then for thinking of Pool margin in second quarter, were very impressive. Just do you expect that you can maintain that level of margin in the back half of the year? I know seasonally, they tend to trend a bit lower, but you have all the transformation savings coming through, trying to see how those two factors might offset each other? Thank you.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. We do expect to have similar ROS expansion story for Pool in the back half of the year. So again, they're executing very well. They'll get some slight growth in the back half, and so we should be able to see, again, impressive ROS expansion story.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Graham from Seaport Research. Please go ahead with your question.
Scott Graham:
Yes. Hey, good morning. Two questions, most of mine have been answered. On the price cost to catch up to sort of get the parity for the year. Do you have to increase prices anywhere to get there? Is that one two the math for the second half does that work to increase -- to get to par?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. Again, a couple of points of price in the back half gets us very close to what we think inflation will read out. Again, remember, inflation is about $47 million at the turn. That's around 3% of the cost base. And so we think something similar will play out. Again, we're seeing inflation in the commodity space, the freight space. But overall, our goal, and we should be very close to price equaling inflation.
Scott Graham:
At price plus 2%, I think you're saying yes?
Robert Fishman:
That price running about 2%. That's right.
Scott Graham:
Thank you. And the second question, it's an easy one. You used the wording we restarted share repurchases. I don't know what that means, more events that you just did some this quarter for the first time in a while. Is the second quarter share repurchase number, is that maybe a good number to use from here that maybe go higher?
Robert Fishman:
We think for modeling purposes, it's a good number to use. Again, our stated goal is to offset dilution. So, $50 million a quarter is kind of what we've built into the overall guide for the balance of the year.
Operator:
Our next session comes from Joe Giordano from Cowen. Please go ahead with your question.
Joseph Giordano:
Hey, guys. Good morning. So just curious on the level of productivity you're getting in Pool, does that seem the calculus around like your desire on or like willingness to put volumes out in prebuy? I like are you willing to maybe give up a little bit of future price because of how much costs you're taking out of the organization and you know that you can keep margins on a good trajectory anyway. So just to give you more flexibility to like release more than you otherwise would have to protect volumes and maybe take some share?
John Stauch:
Yes. I just want to make sure, I mean, early buy is done and it's just really more a the factory. Otherwise, we'd have all of our revenue in Q2 and Q3 and very little in Q3 and Q4 -- Q1 and Q4. So we make that decision as we head into the year based upon what level of revenue we're comfortable with to still maintain a decent profit level and also make sure that we can keep a consistent employment level. So that's how we make that decision. It's too early to make that call right now. And as the season approaches, that's the discussions we have with the Pool team.
Joseph Giordano:
Fair enough. And then just on the PFAS solution here. I just want to clarify, is this like a secondary treatment. Like is this another product on top of like an ever pure that a commercial customer would have? Or is this kind of an integrated solution that's doing multiple -- removing multiple contaminants?
John Stauch:
Yes. The answer is yes. That is an add-on to what we currently have.
Operator:
And our next question is a follow-up from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your follow up.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey, guys. Sorry. Just wanted to like touch on this whole inflation and pricing. It looked like the kind of the stack comp pricing in Pool went down sequentially. And I think as a follow-up to the other question, just wondering, could you just maybe delve into what was so inflationary for you guys? I mean like trying to disaggregate a sourcing benefit versus cost increases that would just be more basic in nature? Just wanted to maybe, I guess, just delve into what you're seeing by category and that inflation number? Like what's really driving that?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Steve, we do have some suburb commodity inflation a couple of the raw materials that everybody is experiencing that is a little higher than our overall expectations. Also this year, labor inflation still remain high, especially in the core U.S. areas. Mexico being one of the areas that saw significant labor inflation. So those are the I say, the abnormal inflation in the year. As far as the pricing aspects, we do feel like when you look at it on a full year basis, it all levels out. But within periods, because we do give rebates to dealers, and we also give discounts to distributors, you could have a little bit of abnormality as you work through the quarters. But overall, it usually comes right in on the forecasted number.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay, that's super helpful. Thanks a lot.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference call back over to John Stauch, President and Chief Executive Officer for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us. In closing, I want to reiterate our key themes. First, solid execution across our balanced water portfolio drove significant margin expansion for the ninth consecutive quarter. Second, we are increasing our 2024 ROS and adjusted EPS guidance, which reflects continued confidence in our strategy and our ability to mitigate risk where we can and maintain agility in a dynamic environment. Third, we effect our transformation and 80-20 initiatives to continue to drive strong margin expansion. And finally, we believe our focused water strategy and solid execution are building a foundation to continue to deliver value creation beyond the 2024 fiscal year. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to the Pentair First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair investor relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Please note that we will limit your questions to two, after which we ask you to reenter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. Note that we have now published our Pentair investor overview on our IR website, which includes the overview slides we previously included in our quarterly earnings presentations. Please visit our Pentair investor relations website and click on Events and Presentations to find this new overview. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. First, I want to thank all of you who attended our 2024 Investor Day in New York last month. We appreciate your time and your insightful questions as we dove deeper into the business and provided our path to 24% ROS by full year 2026 with the potential for upside. Now, let's begin with our strong Q1 results on slide four. The eighth consecutive quarter we continue to drive margin expansion. In Q1, ROS expanded 90 basis points despite sales being down slightly against peak channel inventory challenges in our residential segments. We exceeded our first quarter guidance as our Pentair teams drove solid execution across all three segments. In the first quarter, segment income and adjusted EPS also increased year-over-year. Our transformation initiatives remained on track to deliver margin expansion, as we highlighted at our recent Investor Day. Approximately 50% of our total revenue is adopted and implemented value-based pricing as part of our strategic pricing initiatives. We are well into wave two of our sourcing initiatives, which we expect to begin to drive benefits in the second half of this year, and we have continued to drive operational footprint optimization and plan to continue this going forward. And we have recently introduced 80/20 training to 50% of Pentair's revenue streams and have identified some quick wins and larger-term opportunities. Lastly, we are encouraged by signs that we are returning to a more normal operating environment for the first time in nearly four years. Both our lead times and our backlog have been normalizing and our order rate trend has been in line with our expectations. As we expect to return to a more normal operating environment we have seen a mix of trends across our residential, commercial and industrial verticals within our three segments. For example, in Flow, commercial and industrial verticals performed well in Q1, while higher interest rates continue to impact residential and agricultural verticals. Within Water Solutions, our commercial businesses servicing the foodservice and hospitality verticals performed as expected. We believe residential will improve as year-over-year challenges moderate. Lastly, in Pool, a majority of our revenue is in the Sunbelt states, with a focus on higher-end in-ground pools. In Q1, higher-end pools and the Sunbelt states remain resilient with the exception of California, where weather had a slight impact. From our recent dealer survey, remodeled pool projects appear to be increasing and services we surveyed were optimistic about the aftermarket. Let's turn to slide six. Last week, we published our 2023 Corporate Responsibility Report with an update on our progress. At our Investor Day last month, our leader of ESG and Sustainability, Karla Robertson, provided a preview of our 2023 results on this slide. I'm very proud of the work Karla and our sustainability team are doing and the progress our teams throughout the company are making against our strategic targets. Before I turn it over to Bob, let's turn to slide seven. We delivered another quarter of quality earnings with better-than-expected results. Our Investor Day key themes remain on track. Our 80/20 training and workshops are underway with what we believe are promising early readouts and we are reiterating our full year 2024 outlook while introducing strong Q2 guidance with an adjusted EPS midpoint up 13% as compared to the same period last year. All-in, we continue to build a strong foundation to drive long-term growth and profitability across our diverse water portfolio. I will now pass the call over to Bob, who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide eight. With sales over $1 billion, we delivered another strong quarter of quality earnings. Return on sales or ROS expanded 90 basis points despite sales being down 1% versus last year's record Q1. Core sales were down 1% year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in Water Solutions, which was more than offset by slight decline in Flow and Pool. Sales across all three segments increased sequentially from Q4. Pool sales in Q1 exceeded Q4 2023 sales which in turn exceeded Q3 2023 sales as we had guided to last October. First quarter segment income increased 3% to $217 million and return on sales expanded 90 basis points year-over-year to 21.4%. These results were driven by favorable mix, price more than offsetting inflation as well as transformation. ROS improved sequentially from Q4 and approached the Q2 2023 record of 21.6%. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.94, which exceeded our guidance and was up 3% year-over-year. As John previously mentioned, we are excited to be entering what we believe to be a more normal operating environment for the first time in nearly four years. Please turn to slide nine. Flow sales declined 2% year-over-year. Commercial sales growth of 9% and industrial sales growth of 2% were more than offset by a decline in residential sales of 12%. Our residential sales are more closely tied to the overall housing and agriculture market. Segment income grew 19% and return on sales expanded 350 basis points to 20.1% marking the first time ROS has reached or exceeded 20%. The strong margin expansion was a result of price and mix exceeding inflation and continued progress on our transformation initiatives. Please turn to slide 10. In Q1, Water Solution sales were up slightly to $273 million driven by commercial sales up approximately 1% and residential sales down approximately 1%. Segment income grew 6% to $56 million and return on sales expanded 110 basis points to 20.4%, driven primarily by favorable mix and transformation continuing to drive operational efficiencies. This is the eighth consecutive quarter of ROS expansion. Margins have nearly doubled from 10.8% in Q1 2022 to 20.4% in Q1 2024. Within our residential business in Water Solutions we have continued to see improvement in our year-over-year sales rate for the last five quarters. Within our commercial business in Water Solutions, both filtration and ice drove sales growth, which was offset by lower services revenue due to project life cycles. Please turn to slide eleven. In Q1, Pool sales declined 1% to $359 million. However, Q1 sales improved nearly 7% sequentially from Q4 2023, as expected. Segment income was $111 million down 5%, and return on sales decreased 110 basis points due to lower volume an increase in costs as we prepared for the peak Pool season in Q2 and investment in transformation. We expect Pool margins to expand each quarter year-on-year for the remainder of 2024. Please turn to slide 12. At our Investor Day in March, we updated our three year margin targets to reflect margin expansion through full year 2026, extending our plan by a year. With contributions from all four of our key transformation initiatives pricing, sourcing, operations, and organization we are targeting ROS to expand by 540 basis points to 24% as compared to full year 2022 and have the opportunity to do even better as we discussed during our Investor Day. In full year 2023, we achieved ROS of 20.8% and expect to continue to drive margin expansion to approximately 22% by year-end. Please turn to slide 13. This runway provides context of when we expect each wave to deliver margin expansion in our reported results. Note that we expect our transformation benefits to compound with each additional wave and the entire process to begin to repeat in 2027, creating a continuous cycle of ongoing savings. Please turn to slide 14. In Q1, we used $127 million in cash, which is consistent with the prior year quarter. Q1 is predominantly a cash use quarter and typically followed by strong cash generation in Q2, our seasonally highest quarter. Our net debt leverage ratio was 2.1 times, down from 2.6 times in Q1 a year ago. Our ROIC was 14%. We continue to target high teens return on invested capital. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment along with share repurchases to offset dilution. With the net debt leverage ratio within our target range, we have additional flexibility to strategically allocate additional capital to areas with the highest shareholder returns. Moving to slide 15. For the full year, we are maintaining our adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.15 to $4.25 which is up roughly 12% at the midpoint. Also for the full year, we continue to expect sales to be up approximately 2% to 3% with Flow sales to be up approximately low single-digits, Water Solution sales to be approximately flat, and Pool sales to be approximately 7% for the full year. We also expect segment income to increase 8% to 11%. For the second quarter, we expect sales to be up approximately 1% to 2% compared to last year's record Q2. We expect strong growth in Pool sales in Q2 somewhat offset by challenging compares in our Water Solutions segment. We expect second quarter segment income to increase 10% to 12% with significant ROS expansion. We are also introducing strong adjusted EPS guidance for the second quarter of approximately a $1.15 to $1.17 up roughly 13% at the midpoint. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A after which John will have a few closing remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
Michael Halloran:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. So two questions here. First one just how are you thinking about the end markets as you work through the rest of the year? I mean the overall topline guidance is really unchanged. So I guess the question is, are you seeing anything different today than you were thinking a few months back? And how are you thinking about the sequentials from here across your end markets?
John Stauch:
So far, Mike, I would say things are playing out exactly like we thought and hoped for with the exception of maybe within our Flow segment, the Residential side and the Ag-side being a little weaker as we progress through the end of the year. Other than that, everything is generally in line with our previous expectations.
Michael Halloran:
Thanks for that. And then on the Flow margins, awfully impressive and certainly seems a little different than I would have expected seasonally. So maybe some thoughts on how you think those margins sequentially work from here, in particular, anything in the first quarter that's not repeatable from a mix perspective or anything else? And is this just an example of the right foundation to build ROS with all the work you guys are doing internally?
Bob Fishman:
It really is. On the Flow side, we were extremely pleased with the ROS expansion in Q1. And again, we've said that they will be one of the main beneficiaries of the transformation program. So I expect the segment to continue to expand their ROS year-on-year because a lot of the play there is around strategic sourcing, the pricing excellence, the operational footprint, and basically the complexity reduction play.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brian Lee:
Hey guys. Good morning. Kudos on the solid execution here.
John Stauch:
Thank you
Brian Lee:
I guess maybe as a follow-up to Mike's question. I mean, I think the most eye-catching metric was definitely the ROS and Flow, looks like both price cost and transformation benefits were driving a lot of this. I know it's a little bit lumpy if we look historically, but what is kind of the right run rate to think of in this segment coming off this 20% result in Q1? How much more, I guess, price cost or transformation or anything else you want to outline as we think about year-on-year improvements in ROS, just particularly for Flow?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean just to reiterate what Bob said, I think we've done a nice job of refocusing the business and driving transformation. One thing that really kind of helps is, if you think about Flow. There is a business inside of Flow. It's our sustainable gas business, which last year had several larger losing projects, and we've been able to right-size that business and bring those project executions back up to, let's call it, low single-digit margins. But we are getting a very favorable year-over-year comparison against those performance last year. So we do think this is a good starting point. And as we move through the year, we're going to continue to manage the mix and drive the transformation programs and really pleased with the Flow performance.
Brian Lee:
Okay. Great. Helpful. And then second question, just when I look at Pool, again, I know quarter-to-quarter, this can kind of fluctuate, but productivity sort of reversed in Q1, 200 basis point headwind versus the tailwind. You saw last quarter, which was about the same 200 basis points. Is this all investment? Can you kind of break down or quantify how much it was this quarter? It seems like it might have been a big send quarter and should we expect this drag for a few more quarters or does ROS go right back up positive year-on-year? I know you're saying growth is sequentially better throughout the year. How about, I guess, margins in ROS, in Pool specifically, as we think about the cadence? Thanks guys.
Bob Fishman:
Yes. In my prepared remarks, I did mention that ROS and Pool will increase year-on-year for the balance of the year. So comfortable that we'll see ROS expansion within the Pool business. I think Q1 was a little bit unusual and that the volume was declining, but we have significant growth in Q2. And so some of the costs, the ramp-up of cost to service the strong Q2, obviously put a damper on the margins in the first quarter. We also are continuing to invest to drive growth and transformation wasn't where we needed it to be within the Pool business. But those investments will pay off and further ROS expansion down the road. So again, comfortable with the ROS expansion in Pool, the remainder of the year. And again, as we ramp to significant growth in Q2, that will become a big manufacturing leverage play as well.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Damian Karas with UBS. Please go ahead.
Damian Karas:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Damian Karas:
My first question is on the Pool business. You had mentioned in your slide that remodel inquiries are up. Could you give us a sense for how much are we talking here? Is that kind of across the board or was that also just like on the high-end side of the market? And is your expectation for remodels still kind of down low-single-digits for the year in your guidance?
John Stauch:
Yes, to the second one. But we do feel there's some encouraging trends that will give us feeling that our dealers will start to take more orders, which would extend into '25 and '26. I think with all the new Pools being built, there probably wasn't as much attention being spent to getting the remodel sequenced and completed. And I think we're encouraged that we're now seeing that part of the market get some demand from our customers and again, this is primarily in the key Sunbelt states and more on aged Pools.
Damian Karas:
Okay. That's encouraging to hear. And then could you just help us think about the Water Solutions and that 9% comp year-over-year. How are you thinking about the second quarter for the segment kind of both in terms of top line and segment margin?
Bob Fishman:
From a top line perspective, it's important to remind everyone what a large quarter Q2 was last year, especially within the Ice business. So we do see a decline year-on-year within Water Solutions as they bump up against that tough compare. So think of the Ice business and services having a bit of a headwind and then the filtration business continuing to grow nicely.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Hey, guys. How are you?
John Stauch:
Good. How are you?
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good. John and Bob, just maybe following up on Water Solutions. Look [indiscernible] guys hanging in there a little bit more than you would have thought. Obviously, comps are tough as you just talked about. I think your guidance for commercial water was up low-single-digits for this year. Is that still what it is? And then what happened in services? And would you expect that to sort of come back as the year goes up?
John Stauch:
Yes, on Ice. I think Ice is going to play out right now the way we expected it to. And as a reminder, as Bob said, tough compare in Q2. But overall, I think it's going to come in line with our expectation. And still has resilience in the end industry, and we're feeling good about our filtration penetration, combined with that BU to drive it. We are going to dial our services business into more profitable annuity-based services as we exited some of the larger programs that we were doing with some of the large fast food companies and some of those were not very profitable, and we want to refocus the business into a simpler mix of service, more geared to the products that we install and so we will see that be a little lumpy throughout the year as well.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
It's helpful guys. And then, Bob, are you still thinking $75 million in productivity this year even with the slower start in Pool and the $4 million in total in productivity for Q1?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. Again, we were pleased with the transformation readout in Flow and Water Solutions, but it was offset somewhat by the negative productivity and Pool as we ramp up for Q2, still feeling very comfortable with the $75 million number and think of that as being fairly linear over the next three quarters.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning Steve.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Just a follow up to that bridge question for the year. Can you just update us on what you're thinking on price and then just the spread on price cost and price and inflation for the year?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think we're still hopeful we can get price to offset cost. I mean we did see a little incremental inflation start to enter Q1 into Q2. I think it's primarily around what we'd call freight and probably specifically copper. So we're monitoring that, Steve. If needed, we would go back out and see what we could recover from a price standpoint. And our goal is to, for the full year, try to offset price and cost.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And 2%-ish price for the year. Is that still kind of in there or -- what you did 3% in the first quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. We're still in that 2% for price and think about 3% inflation on the cost base. Those two would roughly offset from a dollar perspective.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Bryan Blair:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Solid start.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bryan Blair:
A quick follow-up on productivity and transformation read-through. You said step up somewhat ratable for the next three quarters to get to the $75 million. Given the moving parts of Q1 and divergence in segment contribution, how should we think about how that drop-through shakes out for the segments going forward?
John Stauch:
We expect Pool to have a very significant contribution in Q2 given its rate of growth and the fact that we, as Bob mentioned, we had some incremental investments to get the product prepared to ship in Q2. And so think about that as labor being roughly flat from Q1 to Q2, but getting a lot more revenue in Q2. So that would be a huge contribution. Corporate is always a timing issue. Also, Bob didn't mention that, but we have higher corporate expenses that run in Q1 typical in the industry and so that usually comes down as it heads into Q2 as well. But I think the rate of contribution will be the same for the other segments and then we get the step-up in Pool.
Bryan Blair:
Yes. I appreciate the detail. And I understand that debt reduction is the priority near term with regard to capital deployment. Although with your second quarter cash flow, suspect by June, July timeframe, you'll be under two times levered. Any color you can offer on your M&A pipeline and whether we may see any deal for the second half of this year, it's better to anticipate you get back to that growth lever in more 2025 timeframe?
Bob Fishman:
I agree with the comment that the cash flow is providing strong optionality for us. What was interesting is we started the year thinking there would be three rate cuts. We've now built into our guidance of $100 million of interest expense, no rate cuts. So we think that's prudent. We were able to keep the interest expense the same as our previous guide, primarily because the free cash flow is happening earlier in the year. So we look forward to a strong Q2 in free cash flow. To your point, we're right within our target range. We think there continues to be a debt reduction play to help the EPS. We'll restart the share repurchases to offset dilution and then there remains optionality in terms of what drives the highest shareholder value.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just wanted to put a finer point on that second quarter sales guide. So in total, it's up one to two points year-on-year. Based on your comments, Bob, is it right to think about Waters may be down mid-single digits, Flow is flattish and then you've got Pool up 10% plus. Is that the right sort of framework for Q2 sales?
Bob Fishman:
I would agree with those numbers, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
That's very helpful. Thank you. And then just my second question would really be around sort of the inventory situation. I think your own inventories are flattish sequentially in March, down a lot year-on-year. Maybe help us understand kind of how you're assessing inventories on the customer and channel partner level? And how do you assess your own sort of inventory rate versus kind of history for where we are in the year?
Bob Fishman:
From our perspective, inventory from a days on hand is still significantly higher. We go back to 2019 and see each of the segments has room for improvement. That being said, year-on-year, we were down roughly 10 days from an inventory on hand perspective. So we're moving in the right direction. To bring down those inventories, the volume will certainly help in the second quarter, but we're not quite where we want it to be.
John Stauch:
And then on the channel side, I think we're at normal levels. I think right now, we're working with our channel partners, and we're generally shipping through in the same quarter with being bought. So I feel like all that's behind us here in the Q2.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hey, good morning guys.
Bob Fishman:
Hey, Jeff.
John Stauch:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Just on Pool, I mean, John, you seem a little more confident in how things are shaping up, at least from the survey work. And I think you talked about kind of having these added costs to ramp. And so just wondering what it takes for you guys to kind of lift expectations there? And then just also any early read on the start of the Pool season here, I know weather was pretty disruptive last year.
John Stauch:
Yes, Jeff, I appreciate the question. I mean just -- as a reminder, I mean, Pool markets are -- and sell-through on a normal market basis still be down mid-single-digits. So we're benefiting from those year-over-year easier compares as we ramp up and no longer have those inventory headwinds. And then I feel like we've got better insights and into the sell-throughs and the way that we now can work to get those shipments out in five days, where we're tying the shipments to the sell-through. So, yes, it does feel better and it feels like more normal, which is why we use the word normalized for a period of time. So I feel good about that. Interest rates are going to be pesky. And I think it's affecting the financing. It's affecting dealer financing and the sense of where they're getting their working capital loans from, it is going to continue to challenge the industry. And also, when interest rates are like this, we don't see movement from people selling their house and buying another house, which are what our business tends to like, the water doesn't taste the same and then you invest in a water filtration system. So Jeff, we could use those lower interest rates at some point to send a signal that things are going to be brighter. And I think that, that's what we're reflecting in the -- in our current hold of the full year forecast. And then we feel confident we have transformation and we have cost out initiatives to make up the gaps if we continue to see this be challenged as we head through the back half of the year.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay. And then just -- Home Depot is buying kind of the number two player in Pool. And I'm just wondering if you think that drives any change in behavior or kind of tougher customer to kind of deal with any thought there?
John Stauch:
I think this year, short-term, no. Clearly, the deal is going to take a while to complete. I mean I think all we can do right now is take Home Depot and SRS Heritage on their words and what they're saying right now is they expect to run that independently and continue to service the pro channel. And for now, that's the way we would see it unfolding and therefore not a short-term impact that we anticipate.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead. Mr. Jones your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Sorry. I take off mute. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Question on Water Solutions. You talked about some verticals there that are expected to improve as year-over-year challenges moderate. Is there an expectation that demand is actually improving sequentially here? Is that just a comment that you run into some easier comparisons as the year goes by and those comparisons just get easier in the second half of the year?
John Stauch:
From an overall end market perspective, I would say it's more the latter, Nathan, in terms of, we can't with interest rates the way they are and people not buying new homes get too much ahead of ourselves on the residential side. So pleased to see that the decline year-on-year is improving for the last four or five quarters. But again it's not as robust as we would like it to be.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. And are you seeing any parts of those channels? I know we've talked a lot about the Pool inventory channel. Any parts of the channel at Water Solutions that might still be reducing their own inventory? I mean you guys have talked about reducing your inventory further. So potentially is there any destocking still continuing in any channel, whether it's Water Solutions or, I guess, across the portfolio?
John Stauch:
Not that we're aware of, Nathan. I mean right now, we would say that sell-throughs matching sell-in generally across the industry.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Can we circle back on the opening comments, you talked about that you're halfway through value-based pricing. Would love to hear some of the early read on the traction and whether any disruptions? And then I guess it's a related question, the same thing on 80/20. Just any success stories there? And any kind of product shakeouts, product lines that might be deemphasized? Any color there would be helpful. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes. So we're doing a good job utilizing the pricing playbooks that we have and I'm really proud of the businesses utilizing those tools to affect outcomes strategically in their business. And again, this is just more strategic pricing and more thoughtful value-based pricing. That being said, I said this in Investor Day, and I have now gone through a full session of training. I kick myself for not having done 80/20 sooner. Because what we're learning from 80/20 is the complexity in the portfolio is all being treated equally. And what we need to do is think of our A parts or our top parts to our top customers getting differential treatment and that's where we can be more innovative. That's where we can spend our energies for sourcing and pricing effectively. And then we get like most companies, you get all the complexity that you introduced over time, either the secondary parts of those top customers or secondary parts to what you call the lower-end customers, that drive the complexity in the organization and drive too many resources where there's very little impact that you can have. I mean, Deane, I'll give you this. I mean, think about any regulatory change and thinking about how you treat that equally, it should really just be focused on your top parts to your top customers to your top regions, right? So we're going to get a lot of value from that. And I think it comes from the complexity reduction, but I think it's really more of a growth tool because it's going to allow us to double down and really focus our innovative efforts to the top products that we have into the top end markets that we have with our best customers.
Deane Dray:
That's real helpful. I think we talked about it at the Analyst Day, it's less about cutting lines and it's more about optimizing growth. Is that right?
John Stauch:
That is correct.
Deane Dray:
All right. Good. And then just I've asked about this before because I just kind of the voice of the customer on the Pool side is, all this interest in automation, the extent to which you can automate testing and any sort of updates on the Pool chemicals and so forth, operation in the equipment? Just where does automation stand in terms of the take rate of your customers?
John Stauch:
I mean it's still about where it used to be, Deane. And I think -- we think this year will be a higher level of penetration as people have time to think. And our dealers have time to get caught up and learn and then be more productive in how they help the end customers get what they need. I think we have to make it simpler and we have to take the complexity out of that portfolio as well. And then I think we also have to think about how do we bring the right value proposition for the overall pad and I think those two things will help us really change and accelerate that penetration rate.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, good morning everybody.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, I want to come back to Pool. So just some of the preordering activity received, has most of that shipped out in the fourth and first or do you have some feather into the second quarter, just try to think about any revenue visibility there?
John Stauch:
It's strongly in the second, to be honest. I mean, it balances out between Q4 and Q1, but most of this is about servicing the Pool channel in the season, which will be Q2 and then adjusting within season, which would be Q3 for us.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. And then just back to capital allocation, certainly, deals are episodic, but I guess at what point if deals aren't coming into view, do you lean a little bit heavier into repo? Is that an H2 event or do you think you assess M&A for the course of '24 and we should think of incremental repurchase as more of a '25 event?
John Stauch:
Well, we're going to have strong cash flow in Q2, we expect, as we normally seasonally do. And then as Bob mentioned, I think our first step is we just got to reinstate buyback kind of to offset dilution and get that back as part of the capital allocation strategy. And then we're always looking at potential bolt-on M&A and pleased that we're at least seeing some things now and if we can transact them or get them over the finish line, that's yet to be determined. And we got valuations, we've got performance that has to be looked at. But ultimately, I think we're excited that we're at least looking at things again.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Buscaglia with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Andrew Buscaglia:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Andrew Buscaglia:
I just wanted to check on the Flow side, you had mentioned resi weaker than expected of down about 12%. Can you just remind us what's behind that kind of what's driving that? And then any concerns that your markets are different, but that leads into other areas?
John Stauch:
Two particular markets. It's water supply, water disposal. North America, which specifically is in ground well pumps and what you'd say is pivot spray irrigation. That's it. I think it was just clear to us within the quarter that it's not worth running any promos or specials or thinking about dealer stock outs that we really just have to understand that the market is going to be softer and work within that softer market to drive the transformation levers that we need.
Andrew Buscaglia:
Yeah. And then on the topic of areas of weakness in resi outside of Flow, Pool sounds strong, but I guess.
John Stauch:
Yeah, Pool has got the -- yeah, Pool has got the year-over-year inventory tailwinds, which are helpful, again, still mid-single-digits down and from a market perspective. And then residential water treatment saw severely -- severe jobs in their outlook last year. And so they're really more sequentially flat as they're moving throughout the year here, which if you said that's a sign of positive, they're not down substantially. But they're not seeing signs of improvement either as some of those higher-end systems require financing to move them.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks for taking my questions. So you made the comment that was positive on remodels and aftermarket in Pool. Could you just update us on how you're thinking about new Pool construction for the year?
John Stauch:
Right now, we're thinking about exactly the same as in our original guide. And it's down versus historical standards. But I think overall, from an industry perspective, we're working within that context and no update at this time.
Saree Boroditsky:
And then guidance implies you realized about 50% of your earnings second half, but I guess I would have expected to be slightly higher given the Pool recovery and transformational benefits. So what's kind of the offset to that, that's driving second half earnings to be similar to the first half?
John Stauch:
Yes. Again, we're pleased at the -- on our last earnings call, we talked about EPS being down slightly in the first half, and now we're at the point where it's roughly 50-50. So again, the strength of the first half is reading out. And we feel strongly that the momentum will continue in the second half that's in line with traditionally how the business is operated roughly 50-50.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Andrew Krill:
Hey, thanks. Good morning everyone. Just wanted a quick follow-up on that EPS kind of seasonality question. I think it makes sense on the 50-50 split. Just wondering for 3Q versus 4Q, I think historically, those are somewhat similar. Should we be expecting that or is there any reason maybe it's a little more 4Q heavy as more of the transformation benefits flow through?
John Stauch:
I think I would just say the normal cadence of our business would be generally the same or if not more skewed a little bit more to Q3 versus Q4. Most of our dealer trade businesses, which is 75% of what we do, don't see a very strong close to the year. Most people don't want them inside their homes or during the holidays. And then we don't have that normal industrial cycle where there's a push to ship everything by the end of the year. The things that will skew that is depending on what the Pool season is for the subsequent year and then that sometimes leads to stronger earlier shipments in Q4, and we have no idea what that's going to look like at this stage.
Andrew Krill:
Okay. Great. Very helpful. And then a quick follow-up just on backlog, I know you're more of a book-and-ship business, but just a lot of costs -- of that kind of a more normalized cycle patterns, et cetera. Just is it reasonable to expect like the small backlog the segments have now you think are lower kind of exiting this year and that should be the more normal run rate into 2025? Thanks.
John Stauch:
We would agree with that, that the majority is the shorter cycle and that backlog would be lower at the end of this year as the more normal operating conditions continue.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Scott Graham with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two of them. The first one is on strategic pricing, maybe a little bit more finer to the point, with the pricing guide that you've given -- that you gave on the call here earlier, suggests a little bit of a bleed off in pricing for the rest of the year, notwithstanding if you increase prices, of course, what is strategic pricing due to the pricing number? In other words, let's say that bleeds off to 2% for the balance of the year. Does that sustain 2% into next year, the pricing initiatives?
John Stauch:
Yes. Strategic pricing would do two things. First of all, it helps you have confidence that the price you set is the right value that you should expect, meaning you looked at the features and you priced accordingly. The second thing it allows you to do is hold firmer on your rebate structures. So that's usually where the net pricing benefit comes on. So there's list pricing, which is usually higher. And then what did you net or what did you realize I don't know if we have next year's dialed in yet, but we usually drive it to be, as Bob said, price offsetting cost. And when we take a look at material inflation and costs, we're going to try to drive enough pricing actions to at least be neutral along those two elements.
Scott Graham:
Okay. Thank you. My follow-up is around margin guide. I know 22%. It's just -- the first quarter was really strong margin quarter and you had no -- really no benefit from volume, you had a little bit of benefit from mix, but it wasn't necessarily in Pool, right? So the rest of the year, you have building strategic savings, the transformation, you have a building mix in Pool, which is could be material with volumes. I'm just sort of wondering if 22% -- just seems like you should be able to get there fairly easily. Are you thinking higher than that potentially?
Bob Fishman:
I would start by saying the midpoint of our guide does suggest that we're slightly higher than the 22%. And overall, for the reasons you mentioned, there's potential upside on that ROS expansion. So I like the idea that price is going to offset inflation, transformation then drive that ROS expansion. And then mix can play in it plus or minus. We got -- we saw some favorable mix in Q1, but having a slightly lower Ice business, that's a profitable business as an example. So price offsetting inflation, factoring in mix and then transformation potentially reading out better could drive an improved ROS expansion story.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joseph Giordano:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Joseph Giordano:
I think most questions have largely been asked already. But just kind of curious like bigger picture, EPA comes out with regulations on PFAS. This is something that you guys were thinking about doing like potentially like an in-home product. I'm just curious how those kind of strategies, kind of how you weigh those against kind of the 80/20 and the simplicity and wanting to focus on things that you know have a real market? And how does that dynamic play out in your thought process for thinking about that?
John Stauch:
I think it's a great question. I think 80/20 helps optimize the current revenue streams you have, but it also needs to apply to your focus on what you think you can do to make a larger impact in the future and I think we're getting better at choosing fewer, more impactful innovation projects. And I'm still behind what we're doing with the whole home system that we're working on. And I do believe that there's a strong progress around that and the more awareness we get in water and homes, and the more people are concerned about what they're consuming and drinking, I think that's better for us. The reason I don't get all pounding the table on the movements on the regulatory side is we just don't see people running out right now to buy the current products that we have that actually create or solve the problems today. So there has to be something else that occurs to get the consumer focused. And as you look at the longer term, I think we're very energetic. I think the shorter term, we're less optimistic that we're going to see a shorter-term impact.
Joseph Giordano:
Fair enough. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Today's final question is a follow-up from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Sorry. Just one last quick one. On the 2Q, do we just assume that basically that entire, call it, I don't know, $25 million to $30 million that's effectively from the transformation for the 2Q?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. In terms of reading out, we've captured $4 million of the $75 million. And then -- our view is that the remaining $70 million is fairly linear over the next three quarters.
Steve Tusa:
Right. So that basically accounts for all the year-over-year profit improvement like roughly for the second quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. With Pools incremental volume growth being offset a little bit by the year-over-year impacts in Water Solutions, but you're not far off.
Steve Tusa:
Yeah. All right. Cool. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to John Stauch for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us. In closing, I want to reiterate our key themes. First, solid execution across our balanced water portfolio drove significant margin expansion for the eighth consecutive quarter. Second, we are reiterating our full year 2024 guidance which reflects confidence in our strategy while continuing to monitor uncertainty across the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. We are mitigating risk where we can and being more agile as we expect to achieve new performance records in 2024 and drive long-term shareholder value. Third, we are pleased with our progress on our transformation initiatives, which we expect to continue to drive strong margin expansion. And finally, we expect to continue to deliver value creation beyond the 2024 fiscal year. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to the Pentair Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, Drew, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter and full year performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call, and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K. Following our prepared remarks we will open up the call up for questions. Please note that we will limit your questions to two, after which, we ask you to then re-enter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. Similar to previous quarters in 2023, we have included Slides 4 through 7 in our earnings slide deck, which provide a brief overview of Pentair as well as our investment thesis. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelley, and good morning, everyone. Our record performance in 2023 demonstrates the power of our balanced water portfolio and our focused growth strategy post the separation of nVent. We completed year one with our three-segment structure, Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool, and we finished our first full year with Manitowoc Ice. Our Flow segment, which moves water where it's needed and removes water where it's not wanted, along with our Water Solutions segment, which improves water, both posted a record year for sales and ROS; and our Pool segment, which enables people to enjoy water, delivered record ROS despite significant volume headwinds. I'm extremely proud of our approximately 10,500 global employees for their solid execution in a challenging macroeconomic environment. As we enter 2024, we are leveraging our balanced portfolio for continued growth and profitability with expectations for new records of financial performance. Additionally, we look forward to sharing more about our strategy and three-year outlook at our Investor Day on March 6th. Now, let's begin with our Executive Summary, Q4 2023 on Slide 8. We finished Q4 with record performance in a fourth quarter post the separation of nVent in 2018, specifically record segment income and ROS, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of ROS expansion. This is important to note with strong comparables in Q4 2022. In the fourth quarter, sales were down 2%, which included slightly better than expected Pool performance. Segment income increased 8% and ROS expanded by 190 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $0.87, up 6%, and we generated $97 million of free cash flow in the quarter. Let's move to Slide 9, titled Executive Summary Full Year ’23. 2023 was a record year for segment income, ROS, and adjusted EPS, post the nVent separation, as previously mentioned, despite sales ending the year flat. In full year ’23, we delivered sales of $4.1 billion; record segment income of $855 million, up 11%; record annual ROS of 20.8%, expanding 220 basis points; and record adjusted EPS of $3.75. Flow and Water Solutions set new sales records in 2023, and we delivered significant margin expansion across all three segments, setting a new annual record ROS for each. Transformation and solid execution across all three segments continue to drive operational efficiencies throughout the year. Lastly, we generated significant free cash flow of $550 million and increased our dividend for the 48th consecutive year, further solidifying our status as a dividend aristocrat. Let's turn to Slide 10, titled Balanced Water Portfolio. We are helping the world sustainably move, improve, and enjoy water through our three segments, each with over $1 billion in sales in 2023, and together creating a balanced water portfolio. Our strategy is working, and we have been delivering on the expectations that we have shared with you. I will now pass the call over to Bob, who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 11, titled Q4 2023 Pentair Performance. I will also be discussing our Full Year Performance on Slide 12. We delivered another strong quarter of earnings and significant margin expansion, despite sales being down 2% year-over-year. Volume continued to improve sequentially, with substantial progress in Q4 as compared to Q2 and Q3, driven primarily by improvement in Pool volume. Sales for Q4 were down 2%, which was slightly better than we guided. Core sales across all three segments were down slightly, as compared to last year's record Q4, when our lead times began to improve from a recovering global supply chain, enabling us to ship more backlog orders. As we move into 2024, we expect to see a more normalized operating environment. Fourth quarter segment income increased 8% to $198 million, and return on sales expanded 190 basis points year-over-year to 20.1%. This improvement was driven primarily by our Transformation initiatives. Adjusted EPS of $0.87 was up 6% versus the prior year. For the full year, sales were flat at $4.1 billion, with core sales down 5%, driven by growth in Flow and Water Solutions, which were offset by lower Pool volumes. Segment income grew 11% and return on sales expanded 220 basis points to a record 20.8%. All three segments significantly expanded margins and set new records. Adjusted EPS increased to a record $3.75. Turning to Slide 13, labeled Flow at a Glance, you can see the impressive five-year financial performance. Sales rose over 4% compounded annually and margin expanded 300 basis points since 2019. In 2023, Flow continued to reach new records in sales and ROS. We have also provided a sales view by region, channel and solution reflecting 2023 sales and the diversified nature of the business. We have eight iconic brands, some over 100 years old, and we rank first in quality, technical support and customer service. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled Q4 2023 Flow Performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for Flow, I will also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 15. Note that we have recently renamed our Industrial & Flow Technologies segment to Flow. In Q4, Flow grew sales 1% in the quarter to $379 million, a record fourth quarter. Industrial solutions was up 9% and commercial was up 2% with residential down 7%. Segment income was flat and return on sales decreased 20 basis points to 17.2% due to a return to more normal seasonality following a record Q4 2022 and an unfavorable mix from our residential business. For the year, Flow sales increased 5% to $1.58 billion primarily due to double digit growth in commercial and industrial solutions. Residential was down 4% showing improvement sequentially from Q3. Full year segment income grew 17% and return on sales increased 170 basis points to 17.8%, a record margin for Flow driven by Transformation and price more than offsetting inflation. Turning to Slide 16, titled Water Solutions at a Glance, you can see the strong five year financial record with a compounded annual sales growth rate of 17% and over 400 basis points margin expansion since 2019. Our iconic brands include Everpure and Manitowoc Ice. Our residential Water Solutions products have helped reduce the need for 7 billion single use water bottles in 2023. Please turn to Slide 17, labeled Q4 2023 Water Solutions Performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for Water Solutions, I will also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 18. In Q4, Water Solution sales decreased 5% to $270 million following a record Q4 2022. Commercial sales were down 4% primarily due to the timing of projects within our services business, partially offset by growth in Manitowoc Ice and filtration. In residential, Q4 sales were down 6% but reflect significant improvements sequentially from Q3 of this year in which residential sales were down 14%. Segment income grew 15% to $52 million and return on sales expanded 320 basis points to 19.1%, a new Q4 record driven primarily by productivity from our Transformation initiatives and Manitowoc Ice. For the year, Water Solution sales grew 19%. Segment income grew 66% and return on sales increased 590 basis points to 21%, a new full year record. Commercial sales increased 54% driven by the acquisition of Manitowoc Ice and growth in filtration. Manitowoc Ice had a record sales year with growth of 23% versus the prior year. Please turn to slide S9 titled Pool at a Glance. Looking at the five-year financial performance, Pool was able to grow the top-line significantly and increase margins to a record 31% or up 320 basis points since 2019. Our Pool business benefits from a very large installed base with roughly 80% of sales coming from remodel and break and fix. Please turn to Slide 20 labeled Q4 2023 Pool Performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for Pool, I'll also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 21. In Q4, Pool sales declined 2% to $336 million driven by a six-point drop in volume which was partially offset by four points of price. Note that volume improved significantly compared to the 28-point decline in Pool volume in Q3. For the year, Pool sales were down 18%, segment income decreased 10%, and return on sales increased 270 basis points to 31% driven by price and our Transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 22 labeled Transformation Initiatives. Similar to last quarter, we believe this slide provides a good illustration of our Transformation initiatives and our ultimate goal of driving margin expansion. We have been targeting ROS of approximately 23% by the end of fiscal 2025, expanding margins over 400 basis points as compared to fiscal 2022. In 2023, we delivered ROS of 20.8% as Transformation began to read out in Q3 and Q4, and we expect to deliver roughly 22% by the end of full year ’24, which we believe puts us on track with our Transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 23 labeled Transformation Runway. We have kept this slide as a reference to illustrate the staggered nature of each of the four initiatives and the various stages of each. We are pleased to note that we believe we are executing well on these initiatives going into 2024. Please turn to Slide 24 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. In Q4, we generated $97 million in free cash flow, up nearly 100% year-over-year, reflecting another strong quarter. For the year, our free cash flow was $550 million, up nearly 94% year-over-year. Our net debt leverage ratio was 2.0 times, down from 2.6 times in Q1. Our total debt was less than $2 billion, and the average interest rate was approximately 5.2%. Our ROIC was 14.3%, which includes the full impact from the Manitowoc Ice acquisition. With the focus on being good stewards of capital, we continue to target high teens ROIC. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment with the potential for share buybacks. Moving to Slide 15 titled Q1 and Full Year 2024 Pentair Outlook. For the full year, we are introducing our adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $4.15 to $4.25, which represents a year-over-year range of up 11% to up 13%. We expect total Pentair sales in fiscal 2024 to be approximately $4.2 billion or up about 2% to 3%. We expect Flow sales to be up low-single digits reflecting low to mid-single digit growth in our commercial and industrial businesses offset slightly by a low-single digit decline in residential. Water Solution sales are expected to be essentially flat, comping record 2023 performance driven by our commercial water business. Commercial sales in full year 2024 are expected to be up low-single digits and residential to be down low to mid-single digits. Pool sales are expected to increase approximately 7% in full year 2024 which aligns the historical compound annual growth rates of mid-single digits pre-pandemic. We expect Pool sales to increase driven primarily by inventory headwinds in 2023 that we do not expect to repeat in 2024 and some benefit of price. We expect this growth to be slightly offset by the uncertainty that still exists regarding the macroeconomic environment, higher interest rates, the potential impact of financing for new and remodeled pools and potential repair deferrals in the aftermarket. We believe Pool remains a highly attractive market for us and we look to deliver strong growth in 2024 while being mindful of macroeconomic dynamics. We expect segment income to increase approximately 10% with ROS expansion of roughly 150 basis points. Also for the full year we expect corporate expense of approximately $95 million, net interest expense of roughly $100 million, an adjusted tax rate of approximately 16.5% which is inclusive of changes in the global tax standards for a total impact to Pentair of about $0.07 per share and a share count of approximately 166 million to 167 million. Lastly, we expect to deliver approximately $1 billion in EBITDA in full year 2024, a milestone we are very proud of. For the first quarter, we expect sales to be down approximately 2% to 3%. As a reminder, many of our businesses were working down large backlogs in Q1 last year as supply chains improved and we were able to ship more backlog orders, in 2024 we expect more normalized seasonality in our businesses. We expect first quarter segment income to be flat to down 3% primarily due to lower sales with corporate expense of approximately $25 million, net interest expense of roughly $29 million, an adjusted tax rate of approximately 16.5% and a share count of approximately 167 million. We expect Q1 to drive ROS expansion both sequentially and year-on-year. We are also introducing adjusted EPS guidance for the first quarter of approximately $0.88 to $0.91. For the first time since 2020, we believe we are seeing a return to a more normalized operating environment globally. Thus we expect to see seasonality resume to historical norms across all three of our segments in 2024 with Transformation driving margin expansion. In the first half of 2024 we expect adjusted EPS to be slightly less than 50% of our full year adjusted EPS guide. Q1 is expected to be the lowest quarter for sales, segment income, ROS and adjusted EPS as compared to the remaining three quarters in full year ’24. We have continued to accelerate transformation funnels and remain focused on investing in the long-term growth of our company. Turning to Slide 16 titled 2023 Reflection, our business continued to execute well and delivered what we said we would do. We drove margins as a result of our balanced water portfolio and Transformation initiatives. Manitowoc Ice posted a record year exceeding expectations. We drove performance accountability across the organization, ended the year with an even stronger balance sheet and free cash flow and maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy. We believe we are well positioned going into full year ’24. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Drew, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. In the interest of time we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, thanks for taking the questions. This is Grace on for Brian. First question on margin, kudos on the margin executions. Just a quick question on the margin expansion trajectory here, so if I do a math correct here, your full year guide implies 140 basis point expansion while your 1Q guide implies 20 basis points at the midpoint. So how should we think about the margin expansion trajectory moving the year and which segment should we see the most margin expansion? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yeah, let me just take the first part and I will hand it to Bob. I just want to remind everybody that last year's Pool inventory correction didn't happen fully until Q2. So we are up against one more quarter of Pool compare from a Q1 perspective. And if you actually look at the performance exiting Q4 and compare it to our Q1 guide, you will see that the continued operating performance is there. And the last point I will just make before handing over to Bob is our Q1 EPS guidance is back to our normal seasonality as a percentage of the overall full year. So what you're really seeing is a reflection that we're back to our normal seasonality contribution and therefore the year-over-year compares are harder one last time in Q1. So, Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, I would agree with your numbers. So ROS expansion will continue in the first quarter as we drive approximately 150 basis points of ROS expansion for the full year and as you'd expect, with Q2 being our largest quarter, the ROS expansion will be significant in Q2 and will also play out well as we close out the year in Q3 and Q4.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you. And then my second question is more on Pool. So you're up 7% year-over-year. That's about like $90 millions of revenue incremental. I think I believe you talked about like the destocking was about $150 millions in ’23. So I’d assume that delta is driven by, you’re cautious around you called out like uncertainty in the macro, higher interest rate. Is that correct? And second, its how much visibility do you have on that 7% growth? And can you talk about like the early buy activity? Is that -- does that give you enough confidence to guide 7% year-over-year growth?
John Stauch:
That's two questions with a lot of subparts. But let me see if I can summarize it. I mean, first of all, we have given two numbers on the inventory piece. We've given $150 million and $120 million. I just want to remind everybody it's about a $150 million for Pentair from the end of Q1 to the end of Q4 2023. On a year-over-year basis, it's actually closer to $120 million, which is, you know, then if you think about exactly what you're saying, you take our reported sales, add the $120 million, you'll get to the conclusion that price and volume is down. And I think that reflects several factors. One is that we expect new Pool builds to decline only modestly but then we are not so sure what's going to happen with remodeled pools. And we're also expecting some level of discretionary purchases in the aftermarket in the first half for sure, as people are maybe a little more cautionary, depending on where the interest rates are. Net-net, it's still a fundamentally good growth rate for us as we set up the year. And we're expecting really good conversion of ROS on that contribution.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to circle back to the sort of profit bridge numbers and maybe looking at Slide 12, to try and understand what's embedded for 2024. Any help you could give us around the sort of that inflation bucket, what you're dialing in, it was that sort of $190 million number in ’23. And when we look at productivity, very good exit rates in terms of, $30 million or so tailwind in Q4. How are we thinking about that number for full year ’24 as well, please? So, yeah, inflation and productivity, any finer points on the guide assumption?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, I understand. Thank you for the question, Julian. So as we look at 2024 in the context of the walks, we're thinking that price will offset inflation. So think roughly two points of price offsetting inflation. That would mean that in order to grow to the midpoint of our guidance, we'll have, roughly $40 million of volume. That $40 million is compared to the negative $460 million that we saw in 2023. So when we talk about moving to a more normalized environment, we are very pleased that the challenging years are behind us and we can start to grow. That's really how you bridge the revenue piece. When you move over to segment income, the price of, call it two points, will offset inflation, will get some drop through, call it in the 30% range of that $40 million of income. And that leaves you with roughly $75 million of Transformation to drive the 150 basis points of ROS expansion. That $75 million compares to the $67 million that we did in 2023, but it also includes us making investments back into the business. So as we drive innovation in places like commercial water and Flow and Pool, as we look to drive opportunities to improve and make life easier for our dealers and distributors, that's all included in that net $75 million number. And that's the bridge that would take you from the $855 million of income in 2023 to the midpoint guide of around $940 million. I hope that's helpful.
Julian Mitchell:
That's extremely helpful. Thank you. And maybe just a quick follow up on the top-line outlook. So you start out Q1 down a couple of points, the full year is up a couple of points, how are you thinking about the sort of rate of improvement in that year-on-year sales line through the year? Is it just each quarter year-on-year gets slightly better? And is that true across all three segments kind of moving in a synchronized wave from down slightly to up slightly? Any clarity on that, please?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, that's really how we do view it. We expect growth to return in Q2. Again, Q2 is historically our largest quarter. We had a big Q2 in 2023, but we still expect growth and then we continue to grow in Q3 and Q4.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones :
Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Let me start with a follow up on the Transformation initiatives. I think you guys have some pretty good visibility to the savings that you're going to generate over the next more than one year, two, three, maybe even four years. Can you talk about the linearity of savings realization there out of Transformation? Kind of when do those savings peak and start to level off? Just any color you can give us on the longer term outlook?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, we're pleased with what we're seeing in terms of Transformation reading out. It was $29 million in both Q3 and Q4 of 2023. And as I just mentioned, we're looking at roughly a net $75 million number in 2024. When we look at the funnel, we would expect those type of Transformation numbers to continue over the next couple of years. We think the funnel supports the various waves, whether it's pricing, sourcing, the operations or the org excellence. So we think it's going to create runway for us over the next couple of years, for sure.
Nathan Jones:
And then I guess my follow up on the water quality business. I think Manitowoc burnt some backlog off that it had built up during supply chain challenges. Is it possible to quantify the tailwind that was there in 2023 and maybe is a bit of a headwind in 2024? And then what the underlying expectations are for growth for Manitowoc Ice in 2024 and beyond?
John Stauch:
Yeah, let me just give some color and I'll let Bob close out. I think we enter 2024, especially in the Q1 phase with much more normalized backlog levels. We still grew nicely in Q4 Manitowoc and we expect to grow again in Q1. So I think we're at normal levels. Just as a reminder, this business was only taking 60 days to 75 days of orders. So the backlog was more relative to what the nearer term dynamics were, Nathan, not some level of large backlog that wouldn't be used in the future. So obviously we had a great 2023. This business contributed nicely to overall Water Solutions and overall Pentair and we couldn't be more pleased where we are. And 2024 is more about getting the filtration synergies lined up along with the Manitowoc Ice acquisition. They're the same business unit and when we gave the numbers of what we expected this business to achieve in the longer term of 2025, it was inclusive of those revenue synergies on both the services side and the filtration side. So very pleased where we are and very excited about the contribution we'll see in 2024 and beyond.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, I would just add that historically Ice is a mid-single digit grower. When we look back at the CAGR, that's historically what they've grown. The 23% increase in 2023 included some nice wins in China and working down the backlog. So as we look to 2024, we would expect that business to take a little bit of a breather down mid-single digits. But good news is that the business unit commercial water will actually grow low-single digits. So you're seeing some benefit of filtration business as well as some of the synergies coming from the Ice acquisition but being captured within services and filtration. So overall could not be more pleased with how Ice is performing and continue to, once we get through 2024, be back on that mid-single digit type trajectory.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks everyone, morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mike Halloran :
Can we just continue on the water solution side and round out the residential piece? Easy comps, still expecting some pressure, I'm guessing the cadencing improves through the year but any context on that piece would be helpful?
John Stauch:
Yeah, there is easier comps but it's also the most global of the businesses inside that portfolio, Mike, so we're balancing off Europe, China and North America and while the comps are easier in North America, we do expect some return to growth. We're not yet seeing the interest rate environment propel new housing starts and/or a lot more movements which is usually key indicators to drive that business. But we're at levels now where we're definitely growing off of these compares in North America but we're anticipating a little bit more choppier outcomes in China and Europe in that business. So net-net probably slightly down but getting closer to flat.
Mike Halloran :
No, makes sense. Appreciate that. And then quick clarification on something you said earlier, John. The expectation was for volume and price to be down. I'm assuming you mean that on a net basis and pricing is slightly up and volume is the majority of the downside? I just wanted to clarify.
John Stauch:
That's correct. On Pool --
Mike Halloran :
On the Pool?
John Stauch:
You expect a net price benefit and a contribution in line with the way that Bob shared it across the total Pentair portfolio and the offsets to that would be the volume which would be the market challenges.
Mike Halloran :
That's what I figured but figured out to clarify. I appreciate it everyone. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Graham with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Hey, and good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just on two quickly -- the fourth quarter price cost on the order side. I was just kind of wondering what happened there. But it looks like there was some slippage. And did that reverse, maybe in the first quarter or second quarter of this year?
John Stauch:
Yeah, so I'm a couple dynamics there. I mean, just as a reminder, price in Q4 does also reflect on some of our early buy. So it's not the largest contribution to price in the quarter. Absent that, we were pretty much signaling that we would get closer to price offsetting cost versus having benefited substantially from price being much higher than cost in the first half of the year. So it came in line with expectations. And I think as you head forward, it's probably going to be a little bit better. As Bob said, we now expect it to be offsetting throughout 2024.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBank Capital Markets, Inc. Please go ahead.
Jeff Hammond :
Hey, good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Morning.
Jeff Hammond :
So just on the early buy, I think there was some question on, kind of how you're going to spread it for 1Q and just wondering, if you have more to go in 1Q? And then just I'm kind of the, maybe just speak to break fix kind of how you're thinking about that market within the guide?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, early buy came back to more normal levels in the fourth quarter. But again, as we typically do that, that gets spread between Q4 and Q1. So in line with historically how it's done, in fact, the early buy component in terms of shipment in Q4 was probably a little bit less than historically what we've done.
John Stauch:
Yeah, and on the break fix, Jeff, I will concede that we probably have what I'd call a more cautious outlook, I would not call it conservatism, I call it more realistic. And we just don't know how the interest rate environment is going to affect the consumer being more thoughtful on what's discretionary, not discretionary on the pad. Clearly, we expect products like pumps and filters to be replaced as needed to keep the pool running. But some of your heaters, especially on the high end and/or some of your lighting could see some consumer discretion push those off a quarter or two. That's just our outlook. I don't say that that's right. I think it's better to take that slant and maybe err to the fact that if that doesn't happen, we're going to see, a higher level of growth versus taking a more optimistic view and then having to reset the guide again to the lower end in Pool. So I would be very clear, I don't know. It's just what we have in our particular view.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, good morning all.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Morning.
Brett Linzey:
I wanted to come back to the capital allocation priorities. You noted the continued deleveraging path, but also the potential for share repurchase. I guess what would be the gating factor there to drive that decision and what would be the optimal leverage you'd be willing to flex for repurchases?
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, based into the assumptions that we gave, the $100 million of interest expense and the share count, we have assumed share buyback resumes to offset dilution. So typically, Q1 is a negative free cash flow quarter, but we would also start a share buyback later in the year, is what's based into our assumptions currently.
John Stauch:
And again, that's just to offset dilution at the moment. I think where we're at from a debt to EBITDA is prudent. I think at these particular interest rate levels, I think the focus still is on debt reduction. And the way we're going to look at incremental buyback or M&A is what long-term value does it create for the share owner and therefore which one's the best course of action.
Brett Linzey:
Got it. And then just want to circle back on the $75 million of Transformation that's planned this year. Curious how that feathers across the individual segments as we model ’24? And is this primarily from the Wave 1 measures and actions taken last year, or are you doing more on the operational side in 2024?
Bob Fishman:
It's primarily the Wave 1 on the sourcing side. Again, just as a reminder, Wave 1 last year looked at electronics, motors, maintenance, repair and operations, packaging, logistics. So we're at the point where that'll start making its way into the P&L and very early stages of Wave 2. Wave 2 looked at metals, moldings, resins, ocean raid and purchase finished goods. So I think we've got a nice cadence there of the Wave 1 reading out in 2024 and Wave 2 will straddle ’24 and ’25. We'll also start to see some benefits from both the pricing excellence and the operations. On the pricing excellence, we've now rolled the strategic playbook out to almost all of the different categories and [TMs]. So again, good cadence there from a Transformation perspective.
John Stauch:
You know, Brett, we've got to leave some information for Analyst Day to make sure everybody attends, comes and listens to us. And we'll go in a lot more detail as to how we see all of those Waves working and connected to what the segment expectations will be as well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Andrew Krill:
Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just want to go back to pricing. I know you said about two points net for the company, but just wondering, do any of the three segments benefit more or less relative to that 2%? And are these pricing increases basically already put through or does it require more pricing on kind of mid-year or at some point in the year? Thanks.
John Stauch:
It doesn't vary greatly across the segments as far as the expectation. And yes, they are all announced and implemented at this stage.
Operator:
The next question comes from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, so on the Manitowoc Ice, you know, obviously the growth there on an organic basis looks a lot different than the water solutions business as a whole. Can you can you kind of go through, especially kind of like buckets of what drove that? Like how much was just backlog? How much was like was price in Manitowoc different versus like the underlying water solutions of three points for the year? Like how much were there like revenue synergies with the filtration reading out already into ’23? Just if you can kind of just break those into large buckets for growth.
John Stauch:
Yeah, let me simplify it. I mean, right now we're seeing great traction, especially with Manitowoc and also then the filtrations of Everpure, through distributors into key accounts and also working our way through synergies there. I just want to mention that our services business had a very large project that it worked in 2022, which was for a large customer, the install of frozen carbonated beverages. And we ran up against the year-over-year headwind in that business in Q4. But if you actually look at the filtration and the Manitowoc, contributing nicely and it's just offset slightly by the headwind of the services business.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz :
Hey, good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Morning, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John, could you give us a little more color into your industrial CapEx, I suppose businesses within Flow? I think you have the segment up single digits for ’24, industrial businesses look good in Q4. So what are you seeing in Flow and then how are you thinking about your commercial businesses there as well?
John Stauch:
Yeah, so thank you for the question. I mean, we've had pretty nice steady order rates and steady deliveries. And what we do is very, very important because we're turning waste into value for a lot of our key customers. And we're seeing continued investment in that because it drives productivity for them. It's also a big sustainability play for them. So it's an area where doing the right thing for the planet also means a really good value for the customer. And so we've seen a steady order view there and we feel like we're well positioned heading into 2024. On the commercial side, our larger pump business has benefited from, expansion of what I call mainly infrastructure types of projects and the continued build out in North America related to data centers, warehouses, etc. And we continue to see that trend as we enter 2024 holding up nicely as well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, just want to follow up there while we're talking about the formerly known as Industrial & Flow Technologies. Is there anything, it might just be cosmetic, but is there anything to read into the renaming as Flow? And just in answering Andy's question, the point of the business today for Pentair is more of the focus on residential, commercial and the opportunities in Pool and it seems less about industrial and data centers and so forth. And maybe I'm just reading too much into it. But my sense is, are you still the natural owner for this business? And is there any potential that you'd consider a separation?
John Stauch:
Yeah, I know. I appreciate the question, Deane. And I will spend a little bit of time on this at the Analyst Day in March. But just to share with you how I'm thinking, the relabeling of Flow was actually more of a branding exercise. You know, we want to have a web presence where we can tell our story and flow represents 9.99% of everything we do and the former Industrial & Flow Technologies, well, we just didn't think worked as a naming nomenclature. So that's all it was. It's also shorter, which makes producing reports easier. And that's a big deal, right? But ultimately, Deane, the way I think of the company is we're a $1.5 billion in separations and membrane technologies. We're about a $1.5 billion of pumps across the enterprise. And then even some of our specialty applications like heating and cooling of ice, a rise in $800 million, which leaves you a couple $100 million of lighting and $100 million of other. So when you think of the portfolio, we're not geared to residential other than that's where our dealer base is. And that's where our strength and our presence has been generally accepted around our brands. But as a reminder, we do a couple of hundred million dollars industrial wastewater today. That's in the Flow side and we'll continue to build out that capability and technology to continually take advantage of water reuse projects around the world. So, it’s -- we are -- we believe this business naturally fits and we're going to demonstrate that we use those membranes that are used for industrial wastewater applications. We're bringing those back into the residential applications and we think it's going to give us a differentiated technology advantage as we do so. So really excited about the cross-pollination of technology and really excited about how the segments are working together, while also maximizing what we think is the revenue opportunities within their individual swim lanes.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa :
Hey, guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey, good morning, Steve.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
How's it going?
John Stauch:
Good. How about you?
Steve Tusa:
Grinding it out. Just on this productivity number, can you just quantify how much investments you're throwing in there, just roughly?
John Stauch:
It's not a lot. Just, you know if you thought about $10 million to $20 million of reinvestment into the areas of sales and marketing, innovation, digitization, capturing data upstream and bringing that data to help our dealers be successful. And then really just automating the experience between our dealers and our distributors and us, are the two biggest opportunities we have. And then we got some excitement around three or four of these innovation projects that we'll talk about further, Steve, at the Analyst Day. And I want to continue to invest in them because I think they could be game changers in the long haul. So I'm really pleased with the level of transpiration we're realizing and, you know, these are good businesses that we want to add a little bit of investment back into.
Steve Tusa:
You should have thrown AI in there. You missed the opportunity. But on that number, so I guess --
John Stauch:
But you [answered] it for me, Steve. Now it's in the transcript, so thank you.
Steve Tusa:
I guess, though, I thought that the messaging around productivity was more bullish than, I guess, a $90 million gross number if I just add back $20 million. Am I missing something there? Is there just like conservatism on the way some of that's coming through? I thought the productivity number you were messaging was higher than that.
John Stauch:
Yeah, you know, I hate ever using the word conservatism. I think we definitely have a funnel that would suggest we could realize more. And certainly, at the upper end of the range, we would be realizing more. So I think right now, as we sit here and we don't see any definitive movement in interest rates for the rest of the year, we haven't planned on any in this forecast. You know, we think we're well balanced in the way we're positioning this.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stauch, President and Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Well, thank you for joining the call today. In closing, I want to reiterate some key themes on Slide 27. First, our balanced water portfolio and Transformation initiatives continue to drive significant margin expansion in 2023. Second, we initiated 2024 guidance with expected growth in sales and profitability, reflecting confidence in our strategy and execution across the company. Third, our Transformation initiatives have gained momentum in 2023, with expectations to drive further margin expansion in 2024. And finally, we believe our focused growth strategy and solid execution are building a solid foundation for long-term growth, profitability, and shareholder value. Drew, that does conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Pentair Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, Anthony, and welcome to Pentair's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call, and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K. Following our prepared remarks we will open up the call for questions. Please note that we will limit your questions to two, after which, we ask you to then re-enter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. A quick reminder before I hand the call over to John. Similar to last quarter, we have included slides 4 through 7 in our earnings slide deck, which provide a brief overview of Pentair. Please see the slide titled Strategic Framework, Pentair at a Glance, Pentair Overview and Making Better Essential for more information. In reference to Slide 7, Making Better Essential, we are proud to share two recent recognitions that Pentair has received for its work in social responsibility and ESG. We've been recognized as a constituent of the FTSE4Good Index Series and we have been named one of America's Greenest Companies 2024 by Newsweek. This recognition from Newsweek evaluated Pentair's environmental performance in relation to our industry, assessing our progress against key environmental factors, including greenhouse gas emissions, water usage, waste profile and commitment to disclosing sustainability data. Pentair's achievement supports our purpose to create a better world for people and the planet through smart, sustainable water solutions. We look forward to continuing to reduce the environmental impact of our operations and further integrate sustainability into our product innovation as guided by our social responsibility strategic targets. Please refer to our published 2022 Corporate Responsibility Report for more information on our sustainability strategy. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly, and good morning everyone. Let's begin with the executive summary on Slide 8. We are very pleased with our third quarter results, which surpassed the guidance that we provided on our last earnings call. Q3 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of sales over $1 billion, and the sixth consecutive quarter of adjusted margin expansion. Segment income increased 3% and ROS expanded by 140 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $0.94 versus our previous guidance of $0.84 to $0.89 and year-to-date free cash flow was $453 million, up 115% over the prior year. As we look to the full year, we are updating our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.70 to $3.75, which reflects the high end of our previous guidance. I want to celebrate these strong results with all our employees. The resilience and dedication to serving our customers and delivering value for our shareholders during a year of global macroeconomic uncertainty is making a difference. Thank you for your leadership. Let's move to Slide 9 titled Strategic Focus. Through our mission to help the world sustainably move, improve and enjoy water, we are enabling the right investments to both deliver the core and build our future to drive long term value for shareholders. In Deliver the Core, we have driven profitability and productivity across all three segments, Industrial & Flow Technologies, Water Solutions and Pool in 2023. We have also been making better essential through our products and solutions for people and the planet with a focus on sustainability and we have been investing in our people to develop talent and build a higher-performing culture. Another strategic focus of ours is to build our future to accelerate performance. In 2023, we have further invested in the transformation, innovation and M&A. In fact, we've seen great results across all three of these areas with our transformation having begun to read out and new innovation launch this year with exciting new products coming in all three segments. And our Manitowoc Ice acquisition is exceeding expectations. Regarding innovation, in 2023, our businesses have launched 25 new products. Examples include a new high-efficiency ice maker for convenience stores and fast-casual restaurants designed in advance to meet the future EPA regulation for refrigerants, expansion of our Energy Star award-winning and smart IntelliFlo3 pump series and the advancement of our Beer Membrane Filtration solutions to operate continuously with higher levels of smart automation. In addition to these new product launches, our innovation teams continue to make great progress advancing our strategy to build our future as they focus on our longer-term growth being centered on the Pool of the future, re-imagining residential, commercial water treatment and industrial waste to value solutions. Over the last three years, we have launched over 100 new products. Let's turn to Slide 10, titled Transformation Update. We embarked on this transformation journey nearly two years ago with the intent to transform our business for the Pentair of the future. Our company has evolved substantially with the separation of nVent and then evolving to a leading diversified water company. Through our four key transformation themes, including pricing, sourcing, operational excellence and organizational effectiveness, we are streamlining our processes in building additional capabilities, which add more tools in our toolbox to drive growth and productivity. In Q3, transformation gained momentum and drove a substantial increase in productivity sequentially from Q2. After implementing Wave 1, both pricing and sourcing, we expected transformation to begin to scale in the second half of this year and we are pleased to note that our transformation initiatives remained on track. Let's turn to Slide 11, titled CEO Summary. We delivered another strong quarter with significant ROS expansion. Our Manitowoc Ice acquisition continued to exceed expectation. Our IFT and Water Solutions segments more than offset Pool's volume decline and our transformation initiatives drove margin expansion. Our performance through Q3 resulted in another positive update to 2023 adjusted EPS guidance. All in, we are building a strong foundation to drive long-term growth and profitability across our diverse water portfolio. We have updated the full year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.70 to $3.75 from the previous range of $3.65 to $3.75. We are mindful of the uncertainty across the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape and we continue to closely monitor macroeconomic developments and implement risk mitigation strategies, when and where necessary. We have continued to accelerate transformation funnels, while focusing on investing in the long-term growth of our company. We remain confident in our diversified water business model, long-term strategy and our transformation initiatives, which we expect to continue to drive shareholder returns. We have a long successful track record of generating strong cash flow and being disciplined with capital allocation. We achieved 47 consecutive years of dividend increases and are targeting high-teens ROIC. We have a strong balance sheet and an enviable five-year financial track record. I will now pass the call over to Bob who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning everyone. Let's start on Slide 12, titled Q3 2023 Pentair Performance. We delivered another strong quarter of significant margin expansion despite sales being down 4% year-over-year. The diversification of our portfolio and our transformation initiatives continued to more than offset Pool's lower volume impact on margins. Core sales for Q3 were down 7% year-over-year, driven by our residential businesses. Our commercial and industrial businesses performed well in the quarter. While Q3 sales declined primarily due to the volume headwind in Pool, the negative volume impact on Pentair and Pool improved sequentially from Q2. Third quarter segment income increased 3% to $212 million and return on sales expanded 140 basis points year-over-year to 21%. This improvement was driven primarily by productivity from transformation, accretive margins from the Manitowoc Ice acquisition and some price versus cost benefit. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.94. Net interest expense was nearly $29 million and our adjusted tax rate was 15% during the quarter with a share count of 166.6 million. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Q3 2023 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies sales increased 3% year-over-year, driven by commercial sales growth of 8%, and industrial sales growth of 12%, which more than offset a decline in residential sales of 7%. Segment income grew 18% and return on sales expanded 250 basis points to 19.4% marking the fifth consecutive quarter of equal to or greater than 200 basis points of improvement. The strong margin expansion was a result of continued progress on our transformation initiatives. IFT's continued success was partly driven by a revised go-to-market strategy and industry leadership that has been underway over the last two years. For example, within our industrial businesses, our strong reputation and industry expertise is driving above-industry growth. We've been moving away from primarily project-led business to standardized solutions focused on ease of doing business with distributors. And our key accounts have begun to reinvest in sustainable product lines following the pandemic. Within our commercial businesses in IFT, we are focused on driving business beyond warehouses and office space to datacenters and institutions such as universities, airports, hospitals, and government buildings. We also believe there are large opportunities in municipal infrastructure as driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act legislation in the US, with a focus on investments in clean water, flood control and broadband. Interestingly, one of our customers is the leader in directional drilling equipment for fiber optic cables. We continue to believe the aftermarket is a good opportunity for future growth because of our significant product install base. Lastly, we believe we are in a strong position to benefit from the Build America, Buy America Act as our compliance is expected to give us a strategic advantage. Within our residential businesses in IFT, we have seen a return to normalization. Recall that these products are typically not a discretionary spend. When a sump pump or a well pump breaks, it's critical to get it fixed. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled Q3 2023 Water Solutions Performance. In Q3, Water Solutions sales increased 9% to $299 million, driven by our Manitowoc Ice acquisition and price. Segment income grew 40% to $69 million and return on sales expanded 510 basis points to 23%, driven primarily by our accretive Manitowoc Ice acquisition and productivity from our transformation initiatives. Margins have expanded over the last seven quarters from 10.8% in Q1 of 2022 to 23% in Q3 of 2023. Within our residential business in Water Solutions, we noted last quarter that we are seeing North America stabilize. This was evident in Q3 as residential sales declines improved sequentially from Q2. Within our commercial business in Water Solutions, filtration sales in North America remained strong and Manitowoc Ice continued to exceed our expectations. Please turn to Slide 15, labeled Q3 2023 Pool Performance. In Q3, Pool sales declined 21% to $309 million. The volume decline of 28 points was primarily due to continued channel inventory corrections in the quarter and reflects a strong Q3 2022 comparison. Sequentially, the negative impact of volume, significantly improved from Q2. The pricing benefit of 7 points helped partially offset the volume decline. Despite lower Pool sales in Q3, return on sales expanded 130 basis points due to price offsetting inflation, prior actions to rightsize direct labor to align with lower volumes, and improved productivity driven by our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 16, labeled Transformation Initiatives. Similar to last quarter, we believe this slide provides a good illustration of our transformation initiatives and our ultimate goal of driving margin expansion. For reference, our transformation initiatives focus on four key themes, pricing excellence, strategic sourcing, operations excellence and organizational effectiveness. As we've mentioned in past quarters, we expect strategic pricing actions to benefit the top-line of all three of our segments. We expect our other three transformation initiatives to help improve our overall cost structure. As a result, we are targeting ROS of approximately 23% by the end of fiscal 2025, expanding margins over 400 basis points as compared to fiscal 2022. Please turn to Slide 17, labeled Transformation Runway. As you look at each of the four key themes, you can see that the work within these transformation initiatives is in various different stages. For example, in 2023, we have begun to see early readouts from Wave 1 within pricing, sourcing and operations. We are beginning Wave 2 within each of these three themes and expect margin benefits to read out in 2024. You can see how each new wave is expected to compound on the others to drive expected margin expansion year-over-year through 2025 and beyond. In pricing excellence, the strategic pricing playbook has been developed, which is just beginning to roll out across segments and categories. For example, in Q3, we began to implement strategic pricing actions across select products within our Pool segment. Within these price actions -- while these price actions are reflected in our recent annual price increase, please note that these strategic actions differ from annual price increases. Typically, on an annual basis, we evaluate overall inflation, both materiality costs to determine the appropriate price increase across our products. With regards to strategic price actions, we are evaluating all products through a value-based model and identifying which ones have opportunities for adjustments. Recall that in the past, we primarily evaluated pricing through a cost-plus approach. In sourcing excellence, the implementation of Wave 1 is underway with savings currently reading out. As a reminder, Wave 1 included materials such as electronics, motors, maintenance, repair and operations spend, packaging and logistics. Additionally, we successfully kicked off Wave 2 this summer with over 800 suppliers attending our supplier show. For reference, Wave 2 materials include metals, moldings, resins, ocean freight and purchase finished goods. We expect Wave 2 to begin to read out beginning in 2024. Incremental to our strategic sourcing waves, we have seen benefit from our rapid renegotiation process that is a part of our transformed sourcing excellence work. In operational excellence, we have completed the consolidation of three facilities while continuing our execution on lean transformation plans across our sites. In organizational effectiveness, we are in the earlier stages with Wave 1 and expect margins benefits to be realized beginning in 2024. Due to the staggered nature of these transformation initiatives, we expect Wave 3 to begin to read out post 2025 in operations excellence and organizational effectiveness. Overall, we are excited about the savings we have begun to realize from the early waves and remain confident that our teams can execute on pricing actions and savings we have identified particularly in sourcing. Please turn to Slide 18, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. In Q3, we generated $143 million in free cash flow, up nearly 100% year-over-year, reflecting another strong quarter. Year-to-date, our free cash flow was $453 million, up nearly 115% year-over-year. Our net debt leverage ratio was 2.1 times, down from 2.6 times in Q1 and 2.2 times in Q2. Our maturity stack is very manageable. Total debt is now less than $2 billion. And the average rate is approximately 5.3%. Our ROIC was 14.1%, exceeding our cost-of-capital and includes debt from the Manitowoc Ice acquisition. We continue to target high-teens ROIC in the long term. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment. Moving to Slide 19, titled Q4 and Full Year 2023 Pentair Outlook. For the full year, we are updating our adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $3.70 to $3.75 from our previous range of $3.65 to $3.75. Also for the full year, we expect sales to be roughly down 1%, segment income to increase 10% to 11% with corporate expense of approximately $85 million to $90 million, net interest expense of roughly $123 million to $125 million and adjusted tax rate of approximately 15%, and a share count of 166 million. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to be down approximately 3% to 4%. This is mainly attributable to expected lower Pool volume year-over-year and the return of seasonality in our business now that lead times have normalized. We expect fourth quarter segment income to increase 3% to 8% with corporate expense of roughly $23 million, net interest expense of roughly $28 million to $30 million, and adjusted tax rate of approximately 15%, and a share count of 166 million. We are also introducing adjusted EPS guidance for the fourth quarter of approximately $0.82 to $0.87. Moving to Slide 20, titled Full Year 2023 Guidance at Midpoint. We continue to expect total Pentair sales in fiscal 2023 to be approximately $4.1 billion or down about 1%. We continue to expect IFT sales to be up mid-single digits and Water Solutions sales to be up high-teens. For Pool sales, we have made a slight adjustment to down high-teens from previous guidance of down mid-teens at the high end of the range. Segment income is expected to increase approximately 10% to 11% with ROS expansion of over 200 basis points to 20.9%. Moving to Slide 21 titled Q3 Progress Summary. We are very pleased with our Q3 and year-to-date performance. As John mentioned earlier, our third quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarter of sales over $1 billion, and the sixth consecutive quarter of adjusted margin expansion. We have executed well in a dynamic environment and delivered on our commitments. Specifically, our diversified water portfolio and transformation initiatives have driven significant margin expansion despite Pool's volume decline. Our Manitowoc Ice acquisition has exceeded our expectations. We have instilled performance accountability across the organization, which is being measured through key metrics. We have a very strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation. And we have a disciplined capital allocation strategy that aligns to our high-teens ROIC target. I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Anthony, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
We will begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. You may now go ahead.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, good morning all.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, first question just on pricing in Pool. So it sounds like you're going to have two different actions here. So, one being the normal course of business and then on top of that, some surgical. If you could just square that comment. And then anything you can share in terms of the magnitude of the actions that you're contemplating there?
John Stauch:
No. I think just to clarify, as we go into next year, we're only counting on a price increase, which would be a more normalized price increase and modest compared to prior years, but slightly higher than what we would have said would have normally occurred, which is covering the inflationary aspects. Not aware of anything incremental than that and those price increase, they're already been announced to the market.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, our comment towards that, not only did we use an approach that looked at inflation, but for certain product lines, looked at adjustments based on a value-based model. But that is all included in the pricing that went out to be effective Jan 1.
Brett Linzey:
Understood. Thanks for that. And then just wanted to circle back to the comments around the market extensions within IFT commercial. Great to see some opportunity outside those traditional verticals. Is there any way to quantify the total addressable market size that will increase here, given this new reach, this new focus?
John Stauch:
No, but I mean it opens up what we would say would be at least $1 billion plus for our particular opportunities. And I think that's a conservative estimate, Brett.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, great. Best of luck, thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. You may now go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Bob Fishman:
Morning.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John, can you update us and give us more color on what you're seeing in the Pool market? It looks like you're suggesting with your Q4 guide slightly bigger inventory correction in the $150 million you were guiding to. Maybe you could give us some more color on that. And then how do you think that sets up Pool for 2024, especially given the higher interest rate environment?
John Stauch:
Yeah, so I think, first of all, we're pleased that we were able to predict the way that Q3 was going to unfold, and it played out, generally, as we expected. I think we focused on sell-through data. And then also focused on the metrics of our channel partners and I think that data is providing clarity of what's going on. I think the inventory is generally behind us. I don't think that's what Q4 represents. I think Q4 represents what we would say is reflecting the higher interest rates and the impact it could have on the sell-through aspects within the market and it's helping to position ourselves for the best possible 2024 that we can have. So it's a modest participation in early buy, it's making sure that we're not continuing to build inventory ahead of next year. And it's setting ourselves up for a really good 2024.
Andy Kaplowitz:
That's helpful, John. And then you beat your forecast for Q3 sales overall, were down 4%. I think you were expecting down 7%. You didn't change anything other than Pool, which we just talked about. But my question is whether you're seeing anything in IFT or Water Solutions that stopped you from raising your forecast at all? I would imagine you want to be conservative as you talked about, but any more color there on current economic conditions, how they're affecting the other segments?
John Stauch:
No. I mean I think Water Solutions has benefited from significant performance at Manitowoc Ice and we're really pleased with how that acquisition came in and has performed. Just a reminder though, we're going to start comparing against really good delivered quarters in the prior years and so that year-over-year performance is going to moderate. I think the market outlook for that business continues to be strong, but it's going to be hard to continue to put up those types of numbers on a consistent basis.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And then in IFT, anything you're seeing in terms of channel destock or anything like that?
John Stauch:
No, but I think it's only fair to suggest that higher elevated interest for longer makes sure that productivity-based projects and/or expansion investments are going to be up against higher hurdle rates and we're reflecting that in our particular revenue forecast as we go forward.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Appreciate the color, John.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. You may now go ahead.
Brian Lee:
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I know there's a lot of questions around Pool. I'll just throw another one in there. And lot of moving parts and the macro is still uncertain, but is there sort of a framework you guys can provide us to think about for Pool? Because if all goes right, it sounds like by the time we get to end of '23 here, channel destocking is fully complete, you've got normal seasonality returning, price is still kind of elevated in the mid-single digits, so I guess, first off, do you see that holding in '24 on the price side? And then just from a volume framework perspective, assuming all those things, do you play out as you expect channel destocking seasonality? Like, what is the framework we should be thinking about in terms of the Pool volume outlook here as we think about the next kind of 12 to 18 months?
John Stauch:
Yeah, first, I think we're feeling really good about the ability in 2023 to have -- continue to raise our guidance through the diversified portfolio, offsetting really consistent performer in Pool. I mean Pool has generated a lot of income and growth for us over the years and I think it was a little bit worse this year than we anticipated coming into the year, primarily because that inventory was larger and the overall market wasn't as strong as we had hoped it would be. But as we head into 2024, we're looking at the framework as being that we do pick up the tailwind from not having that inventory correction. And then as we get closer to the end of the year, we'll predict what the markets are going to be. I think it's fair to say that we're not thinking that overall Pool builds expand from here. And we don't think overall remodeling expands, but I do think we're going to see a little bit of recovery in that aftermarket, which I think was accelerated into the prior years and now has been normalized. And a lot of those are non-discretionary purchases and we think we get back to a potential overall growth, plus the benefit of the tailwinds of inventory.
Brian Lee:
Okay, fair enough. Makes sense. And then maybe just with interest rates backing up here and the macro, I think a lot of focus around kind of what it meant for your Pool business all year long. Are you seeing anything beyond the resi sector in your kind of end-market exposures that are having any impacts or constraints on spending when it comes to that sort of cost of capital environment and just financing condition is getting a little bit tougher here? Anything you can speak to at kind of a high level? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yeah. I mean I think you're calling it. I think we're seeing it everywhere to be honest with you in little bits. I mean, as a reminder, 75% of our end customers are small dealers and professional trade channel people and their borrowing of capital is higher and harder to get access to capital. I think that slows down some of the projects that we're working on. We're not exposed to commercial buildings more than a $100 million or a couple of hundred million, but I think you're going to see financing be tougher on the building side. And so an elevated higher interest rates for long, just I think produces a sluggish environment is the way we're looking at it, which is why we're really putting that accelerator on the transformation initiatives we have, pricing selectively, making sure that we understand the market back and how to position our products and services effectively in the industries and then making sure that we're managing the cost structure well within the company.
Brian Lee:
All right. Appreciate it guys. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer. You may now go ahead.
Bryan Blair:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Bryan Blair:
Just hoping to drill down a little bit more on commercial water solutions trends. It sounds like underlying market activity remains pretty solid. Just curious if your team is seeing anything shift on a sequential basis. I know a lot of questions have been asked already in terms of macro backdrop, higher for longer rate environment, et cetera. Specific to that platform, are you seeing anything as we get into Q4 or the outlook for 2024 that concerns your team in terms of the strength that you've been leveraging recently?
Bob Fishman:
There's no doubt that commercial water solutions has had a excellent 2023, going to market with end-to-end solution of water quality. Ice and services has been very compelling. Manitowoc has had an excellent year. And we've done well in North America filtration. So overall, we continue to see the market within the restaurants, primarily the quick service restaurant space being solid for us. The challenge for us is bumping up against a tough compares next year. But overall, the markets that we serve are doing well.
John Stauch:
Just to give you some indication of point-to-point, I mean, despite the fact that we're going to see significant shipments in Manitowoc this year and feel really good about their progress, the overall CAGR from 2019 to the end of 2023 is about 8%-ish or slightly a little bit higher than that which we had slightly normal than -- or higher than the mid-single digits that we had forecast the business to have. So just a reminder that the markets, as Bob mentioned, are recovering globally and they continue to participate in that recovery.
Bryan Blair:
I appreciate the color. That's very helpful. You mentioned the end-to-end solution and there's no doubt that the value proposition combining Everpure, KBI, Man Ice, that's resonating with your customer base. Can you speak to direct cross-selling traction within the platform, what's been realized to date for your legacy businesses, not just the lift to Man Ice?
John Stauch:
Yeah, I mean I would I would quantify that value is a couple of points of incremental growth as the overall commercial water solutions business from those synergies. I mean, lots of excitement and putting Everpure in the trade shows, next to the Manitowoc Ice and vice-versa and helping our customers which are a distributor and an installer realize the benefits of promoting both. And I think when you have a good filtered solution on an ice machine, you're extending the life of the ice machine. And then it also leads to the service capabilities we have and the fact that we can offer some of those services. More importantly, just understand what the service provider is up against, so that we can redesign for service and also work with our partners to help them get in and out of those end markets faster. So I mean there's a lot of energy and excitement and we couldn't be more pleased with the synergies and the go-to-market strategies of these three businesses put together.
Bryan Blair:
All makes sense. Thanks for the color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Mike Halloran with Baird. You may now go ahead.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, good morning, everyone. So two quick ones here. First on the destocking impact last quarter, you talked about a $150 million impact on destock this year. Is that still the number we should be thinking about or has that changed now?
John Stauch:
No. I think there's nothing that's changed in that number. It played out as we said as expected.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks for that. And then on the balance sheet side of things, you're two times levered now on a net basis. Bob talked to debt paydown is still the priority. Maybe you could just talk to, given the changes in interest rates, how your financing terms are. Is there a -- has there been any shifts in what kind of leverage levels you're looking at going forward or, maybe better put, where would you -- what kind of leverage levels would you want to see before you became more aggressive using your balance sheet, whether it's for buybacks and M&A, whatever it is?
John Stauch:
Mike, I promised myself I wouldn't give a target today. I think right now, I think we all have to be mindful of access to capital and managing with our capital framework and I think paying down the debt right now is a good use of it. Obviously, we're always looking at strategic complementary businesses to our current business units. The market is not robust though at the moment. And even when you're seeing assets availability, you've got to question how those interest rates environments affect their business. So you're not seeing transactions happen. So I think just paying down the debt right now and giving ourselves the maximum flexibility is where Bob and I are focused for the remainder of this year and into next year.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah. I would just add to that, that obviously staying investment-grade is hugely important to us. As the variable rates have crept up, we did undertake the interest rate swap and the collar, so that turned out to be a smart move where when you include the collar, effectively 65% of our debt is fixed. That brings us to kind of a weighted average rate of 5.3% in the quarter, maybe 5.5% going forward. So overall, we've done some good things to manage within this environment and paying down the debt has certainly helped from an overall perspective.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks for that. All very reasonable. I appreciate it.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. You may now go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to follow up on the sort of profit bridge a little bit from Slide 12. So the sort of price net of inflation number was close to zero. It seemed inflation picked up a bit as a headwind year-on-year versus the prior quarter. So maybe help us understand kind of the inflation moving part in Q4 into early next year. And should we expect that price net of inflation number to be sort of close to zero like it was in Q3?
John Stauch:
No, I think the way -- it's a good observation. I would remind you that the inflation as we showed in our bridge is as year-over-year. So it doesn't necessarily reflect sequentially this year, it could be that we saw some elevated inflation on some of the buys that we had last year. So we think that we are overall moderating to price versus cost being neutral or slightly more close to neutral and then obviously focusing on the productivity contribution that's coming from our transformation initiatives, that's the model going-forward. If you recall, we were benefiting quite substantially earlier in the year and last year on price versus cost. And now that's shifting to more of a transformation benefit as we go forward. Bob, I don't know if you want to add anything.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah. I would just add to that, that while inflation did -- the change in inflation and increase in Q3 versus Q2, the nice thing was that price was able to cover that. We do expect inflation to moderate significantly in the fourth quarter and certainly where price exceeds inflation. At the beginning of the year, we talked about inflation being around 4.5% of sales. And we're really tracking right towards that. So the team has done a nice job of understanding inflation and factoring in the impact of that. So overall pleased with what we're seeing and that'll moderate in the fourth quarter.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful. And as you said, hopefully, that productivity piece becomes larger as a driver. It was substantial already in Q3. Maybe just sort of refresh, where we are on the sort of Wave 2 from transformation savings and how substantive that productivity number should be as a segment income driver next year when you kind of roll together sort of incremental savings from transformation next year.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah, and that is a very important part of our margin expansion story. As we talk about price equaling inflation, it's important that productivity then drives that ROS expansion. So we were pleased to see the $29 million read out in the third quarter, up significantly from the single-digit in Q2 and expect to have a significant transformation benefit in the fourth quarter. We're really within Wave 1 in terms of reading out in 2023. We've built some healthy funnels around each of the four pillars of transformation. And so that will start to read out to an even greater extent next year. So overall pleased with the momentum going into 2024.
Julian Mitchell:
Got it. And your sort of second half run rate for those savings, we should expect that sort of to be steady through at least the first half of next year, I suppose. And then maybe the sort of the comps get a bit tougher on productivity.
John Stauch:
Well, and then that's when the Wave 2 kicks in, Julian. So you -- but you're right. The material took a long time to realize because of all the engineering work and the resupply efforts that we had to do with the supply community. So we're starting to benefit from those in Q4. That run rate will go into next year and then Wave 2 starts to take over in the second half of next year from a sourcing standpoint. To give you some color, about a third of our businesses engaged in the pricing exercises in 2023 will be close to two-thirds of the wave through that in 2024. So that's kind of how the waves that Bob mentioned start to unfold. And we start to benefit from that performance inside the businesses.
Julian Mitchell:
That's great. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. You may now go ahead.
Saree Boroditsky:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Just building on the transformation initiative comment, discussing and benefit from Wave 2 in the second half of next year. Can you just quantify how we should think about that as contributing to margin performance?
Bob Fishman:
We're very focused on ROS expansion. So if you think about us finishing around 21% this year, we've talked about improving the ROS to 23% by 2025, and we've said that's being done in a linear way versus it being all back-end loaded. So we expect the ROS to improve next year as we head towards that 23%.
Saree Boroditsky:
I appreciate the color. Then, just kind of going back to Pool, and a lot of questions today, but -- and you talked about some of the early buy programs having modest participation there. Maybe as you think about 4Q delivery versus 1Q, is there any way to think about how you thought about the delivery patterns and what that means for 1Q sales? Thank you.
John Stauch:
Yeah. I mean I think what we'd like to see unfold is we believe Q4 can be higher from a shipment perspective for Pentair than Q3 and then we would expect Q1 to be better than Q4. And then we would be in the normalized pattern, end of Q2 next year finally being a normal seasonal pattern, which should be the strongest full quarter of the year. And as a reminder, Q3 is modestly less than that. And then again Q4 starts the pre-load for the 2025 season. So we feel like we worked through this and now we've got a clear line-of-sight to more normal seasonality in the business and really keeping our eye on sell-through going-forward so that we don't get into this inventory situation with our channel again.
Saree Boroditsky:
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. You may now go ahead.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey. Just on IFT, can you just talk about like the order trends you're seeing? I don't know if it was really a comp issue but it seemed like there was a step-down in the growth rate. And I'm just wondering what the orders are telling you about kind of the go-forward there.
John Stauch:
Yeah. I mean, just, again, we're looking at year-over-year comps, Jeff, and our infrastructure businesses had a really solid 2022 and so some of these growth rates reflect against the prior quarter of 2023. I think the orders continue to be strong from a mid-single-digit indicator as we go forward, but the year-over-year comparisons are going to be tougher. And as Bob mentioned, we are really focused on non-project-related wins. We're focusing on service, we're focusing on aftermarket, we're focusing on recurring revenue streams with our key distributors and end-market providers, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great. And then just back on this Manitowoc Ice tough comp issue, can you just talk about -- I think you called out a lot of the success and the synergies. But just, what's been going on with backlog drawdown and order rates there to kind of think about this tough comp dynamic? We're also kind of picking up in the channel that commercial food equipment and some other markets are maybe starting to see more normal growth as well.
Bob Fishman:
Yeah. I would say backlogs have returned to more normalized levels. Just as a reminder, Manitowoc grew roughly 30% in the second quarter, will have grown or did grow 20% in the third quarter and for the full year, Manitowoc will be up roughly 20%. So they've had a very strong year. To John's point, when you look at the CAGR from 2019, that's sitting at roughly 8%. So we do expect a more normalized year next year as we bump up against 2023's 20% growth. But overall, the business remains very healthy. The end-to-end approach in terms of going to market is resonating well. So very confident in the Manitowoc business.
John Stauch:
And Jeff, your data points are right. This isn't a sustainable growth level for our ice business. I mean, when you're mid-to-high single-digits, we would have hoped that, that is a more linear growth rate that we get to and obviously, we're going to satisfy the demand and make sure that it's a Manitowoc Ice machine that someone is putting into their restaurant. So it gives us the ongoing service and relationship with that customer. But this is not normal as we've said all year.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Appreciate it, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank. You may now go ahead.
Andrew Krill:
Hey, thanks, good morning, everyone. Want to go back to the Pool pre-buy. I think you might have said you're expecting like a modest pre-buy this year. So just any more insight you can give on that and maybe try to like quantify how it's tracking versus more normal years. And just to clarify, are you assuming that as part of the 2023 guide or would that be incremental to the Pool sales guidance? Thanks.
John Stauch:
No. It's all included in our current view of what our business will do in Q4. And just to remind everybody, what we try to do is level-load factories to make sure that we're not taking down our shipments in any one quarter beyond the level of our employment groupings. So we're obviously encouraging the channel to buy ahead of next year's pool season through discounts that we offer in term extensions, right? We're now at a level that we think is prudent for us and that's where the modest early buy is. And as you know, the channel would take more if they are incentivized more to take it. And if they don't, then those become standard buy orders in the next year. And so that's always what the forecast is reflecting. And we have to do it in our economic best interest. Our channel partners do it in their best economic interest. And right now, we feel our guide is the best reflection of what we'd say a more normal seasonality and a more normal early buy, which would set us up nicely for a 2024 growth year.
Andrew Krill:
Got it, thank you. And just for the 4Q guide and the implied margins for the total company and marked a pretty meaningful step-down sequentially. I think historically you've been more flattish from 3Q to 4Q. And I know it isn't necessarily a normal year but just seems a little, perhaps, conservative, especially with the cost actions starting to come through. So maybe if you could unpack that and if like any segments in particular you think the margins are weaker than normal for 4Q. Thanks.
Bob Fishman:
What we implicit in our guide is significant ROS expansion versus last year's Q4. When you look sequentially, it does come down, but a lot of that does reflect some of the seasonality that, that is returning back to more normalized levels. So overall pleased with the ROS expansion in Q4 versus last year's Q4 and it will be the momentum we need exiting the year.
Andrew Krill:
Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Joe Giordano with Cowen. You may now go ahead.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Morning, Joe.
Joe Giordano:
I wanted to start on margins and keep it there for a sec. I mean, not -- probably splitting hairs a little bit but Pool margins went below 30%, I think we were kind of talking about 30% being like a new floor and you're close enough where that's still like a valid statement. But just from here into the fourth quarter into next year, that 30% kind of feel good still as probably kind of a bottom level?
John Stauch:
I'd say yes on the second part of your question and I think delivering the margin that we did despite the year-over-year decline in volume is what I'm most proud of the team having accomplished. And yeah, I mean, I do think we're splitting hairs. I think they're directionally in a really good spot as a business model and obviously getting growth from here is going to leverage up nicely.
Joe Giordano:
Okay, and then similarly on Water Solutions, I think you were talking about -- like the commentary coming out of last quarter was that the margins were going to step down pretty decently sequentially in the third quarter because of the deliveries that Manitowoc did in 2Q and the opposite happened, right? It went up sequentially. So how should we think about margins there? I know Manitowoc is still delivering at a high level, but how should we think about sequential margins there and the sustainability of this, like, 22%, 23% level there?
John Stauch:
Yeah. I would remind you that Water Solutions has a residential component and systems businesses and they also have the commercial water solutions. When we mix towards commercial, we're going to have a lot higher-margin profile. And what we're really doing is being very selective on the products that we're offering on the residential side. And we try to mix up that business. And so a lot of the decline in the revenue was on the residential side. And that actually helped the overall mix of the business to the positive.
Joe Giordano:
Okay, that makes sense. And if I could just sneak in one last one on just the volume. So I mean your Pool volumes this quarter came in better than what we were thinking about when we spoke three months ago. Commentary from your largest distributor calls for like fourth quarter, their inventory levels in dollars are going to go up from the third quarter. So like, that kind of implies growth for you guys. If they do normal seasonality, implies growth in Pool of like high-single-digits. If they do less, maybe it's more modest growth. But how would you kind of think about where growth can look like for Pool in the fourth quarter?
John Stauch:
Well, I think we're a piece of their puzzle. So we'll start there.
Joe Giordano:
Yeah.
John Stauch:
And I think we are indicating that we do think sequentially our revenue numbers do go up from Q3. And then it's really a discussion of how much more. And I really think that we do our best to predict that business with reasonable accuracy and getting it exactly to the dollar is improbable. And so I would say, we got really close in Q3 and I think we feel really good about our Q4 revenue estimate at this moment.
Joe Giordano:
Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Scott Graham with Seaport Research. You may now go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Good morning, John, Bob, Shelly. How are you?
John Stauch:
Morning, how are you?
Shelly Hubbard:
Morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Scott.
Scott Graham:
Good. Thank you. So the productivity jump was obviously meaningful. How much of that 2.8% maybe was some help from a better supply chain, sort of external?
John Stauch:
Well, I think a lot is coming from that, Scott. I mean, I think we're working more seamlessly with our supply chain today. Obviously, we've caught up on most of the demand to them and aligned with our channels. And so we are benefiting substantially from a lot of more seamless deliveries across the entire supply chain today.
Scott Graham:
Okay. Back on to Pool, sorry, but historically, these numbers kind of shook out as 40, 30, 30 new remodel and then sort of the maintenance of the aftermarket. As we look at a weak 2023, kind of, what does that -- where do those numbers kind of end the year at? Is that an estimate you can make?
John Stauch:
Yeah. I think they're generally in that ballpark. And we could argue, weak -- I mean I think the overall builds in 2023 are going to definitely be at pre-pandemic levels but generally in line with what we had seen prior to the pandemic. So I think we're in a more normalized area. Scott, I think the learning is, across the channel is there is high-end pools there is low-to-mid market pools and the interest rates are definitely impacting the more low-to-mid and the high-ends are continuing to be built. So I think that we'll all probably start to refine the numbers to try to break it out by the demographics that its serving, but I think generally, the model is still working.
Scott Graham:
Okay, thank you, John. Last one, you indicated builds, you are assuming kind of flattish. We're modeling flattish and then aftermarket up. Were you referring to the fourth quarter or a period of time longer than that?
John Stauch:
No, we're talking about -- if we think about heading into the 2024 pool season, that's generally what we're -- our current expectations would likely suggest.
Scott Graham:
Okay. So your mid-single-digit plus long-term thinking on Pool, it's not going to be that next year, based on that.
John Stauch:
We'll give that in January, Scott. I'd remind you that there is an inventory correction next year, which creates some benefits and then there's the overall general market conditions that we are addressing. But when we get to giving our Q4 earnings, we'll update and share with our 2024 guide.
Scott Graham:
All right, thank you. Had to try.
John Stauch:
Yeah, you tried. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital. You may now go ahead.
Jeff Reive:
Good morning, this is Jeff Reive on for Dean. Maybe my first question, you talked about your innovation, the 25 new products this quarter, 100 for the year, over the last 12 months. Is there any internal metric you target? Like, are you targeting new product vitality? And what are the typical margin differential on new products?
John Stauch:
Yeah. I mean we do. We have all those. Vitality is obviously the right product line by product line. When we create new valuable products at the market or that our customers want, we tend to see margin lift from those new products, not usually at its initial stage, it usually takes probably a year or two for that to recognize. But that is the model we work to.
Jeff Reive:
All right. So nothing to quantify. And then maybe on IFT, you kind of mentioned the Build America, Buy America provision in infrastructure spending. Are there any products that you offer where you are on -- or virtually 100% American-made where your competitors aren't? And is that a meaningful piece of the business?
John Stauch:
Yeah, we have today with the Born in America where a lot of our historic brands 120, 130 years old are -- have originated in the United States. They've been specified here for long periods of time and they're manufactured here. And so our employees are really proud of those brands. Our customers are really proud of those brands and they tend to give us the ability to have at least a fair opportunity to win those jobs when we go to market.
Jeff Reive:
Got it. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Nathan Jones with Stifel. You may now go ahead.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Couple of questions on Water Solutions. I think first one is probably on Manitowoc Ice. I think you guys have shipped out of backlog this year, you had maybe a couple of large projects that might not repeat next year. You talked about mid-single-digit plus. But should we be thinking of that long-term mid-single-digit plus as being of a low-end number than what you've done in 2023? Or do you think you can actually grow from the number that you're putting up in 2023 as we go into 2024?
John Stauch:
That's a nice try, Nathan, we're not going to go there yet. Right now, we're trying to satisfy our customer demand for the rest of the year and then we'll do an assessment of where we think we are and we'll be prepared to share that insight with you as we head into 2024.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, fair enough. In Water Solutions, I think you've also had some inventory destocking in some other business, residential water treatment businesses. Can you talk about the impact that comping against that, as we go into next year, might have without looking at the fundamental outlook of 2024?
John Stauch:
Yeah, as a reminder, we -- what we did in 2022 is we exited a fair amount of lower-margin direct-to-consumer business and we've been up against those comparisons this year in Water Solutions. Those comparisons, as we head into next year, go away. And so obviously, this is all included in Water Solutions this year and in next year, we get a little bit less contribution from acquisitions and we have a little bit less headwind from the business exits that we took on this year.
Nathan Jones:
All right. Thanks for taking the questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question will come from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.
Sabrina Abrams:
Hey, you have Sabrina Abrams on for Andrew Obin. Just wanted to ask, I know there's been a couple of questions about Manitowoc but are you guys still committed to the $370 million full year guidance?
John Stauch:
That would be an easy commit.
Bob Fishman:
Now, we had talked at the beginning of the year of that $370 million but the business has done significantly better than that and will grow roughly 20% this year.
Sabrina Abrams:
Got it. And then just going to ask another one about Pool and maybe if you could give some color on the pricing number because I know you are returning to the regular discounts in 4Q. Any color on what we should think about the pricing in 4Q '23, given that the past couple of year, you were not having normal pre-buy?
John Stauch:
Yeah. I don't know how to answer the question. I mean I think, as a reminder, we put our price increases in for the season over the next year. We do that in Q3. And so the discounts usually take you to more flattish pricing year-over-year. So the pre-buys are term extensions, but they don't include a price increase necessarily because there is a discount to what the price increase would be. So it's not like we're discounting partly to sell it, we're just not having to -- we're just not getting the full raised prices in that early buy.
Sabrina Abrams:
Got it, thanks.
John Stauch:
Okay. Thank you. Okay, so thank you for joining the call today. In closing, I want to reiterate some key themes on Slide 22. First, solid execution within our diversified portfolio and transformation initiatives continued to drive significant margin expansion in Q3. Second, we updated our 2023 guidance due to strong performance year-to-date and confidence in our strategy. Third, our transformation initiatives have gained momentum in 2023 with benefits expected for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. And finally, we expect to continue to deliver long-term value creation. Thank you everyone and have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Pentair Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, Joe, and welcome to Pentair's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter's performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] Before I hand it over to John, I wanted to highlight Slides 4 through 7 in our earnings slide deck that include our strategic framework, Pentair at a Glance, a Pentair overview and our newest slide illustrating our ESG highlights and progress. These 4 slides provide a good snapshot of who Pentair is, especially for those new to our company. Our strategic framework states our purpose, mission, vision and values that drive our performance as a smart, sustainable water solutions company. Pentair at a Glance on Slide 5 provides a great snapshot of our company, our performance, our installed base and our 47-year track record of annual dividend increases, which places us in a small group of companies. The Pentair overview on Slide 6 provides our historical sales and ROS performance on a consolidated level and by segment. Lastly, our ESG highlights and progress shown on Slide 7 are a testament to the important work our teams do to integrate sustainability into our operations, product innovation and long-term strategy. We are very proud of our achievements to date, especially considering the early stages of program, which began just about 3 years ago. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with our record Q2 results and the executive summary on Slide 8. In Q2, we achieved record sales, segment income, return on sales, EPS and free cash flow following the separation of nVent from Pentair in 2018. Specifically in Q2, sales increased 2% to nearly $1.1 billion, Segment income increased 14% to $234 million. ROS expanded by 230 basis points to 21.6%, driven by margin expansion across all 3 segments. Adjusted EPS rose 1% to $1.03, and free cash flow was $433 million. With another strong quarter of financial results, we are raising our 2023 adjusted EPS range to $3.65 to $3.75, which increases the midpoint of our range to $3.70. We also continue to strengthen our balance sheet and reduced our net debt leverage ratio to 2.2x EBITDA at quarter end, down from 2.6x in Q1. We believe our record second quarter performance demonstrates the power of our global diversified water portfolio and strong execution across all 3 segments
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 11, titled Q2 2023 Pentair Performance. We delivered record second quarter sales of nearly $1.1 billion, up 2% year-over-year. This is compared to a previous sales record in last year's Q2 of $1.06 billion post the separation of nVent from Pentair in 2018. Our IFT and Water Solutions segment continued another quarter of strong sales performance, which more than offset lower Pool volumes. Sales growth in Q2 included strong price contribution and the Manitowoc Ice acquisition, which closed in July of 2022. The volume decline in Q2 was primarily related to our pool and other residential businesses which was partially offset by strength within Commercial and Industrial. Please note that where I referenced record results, I'm referring to Pentair's performance post the separation of nVent from Pentair in 2018. Core sales improved 9% in both IFT and Water Solutions with Pool declining 28%, compared to the prior year periods, pool sales increased 19% in Q2 2022 and 49% in Q2 2021. Second quarter segment income increased 14% to a record $234 million and return on sales expanded 230 basis points year-over-year to a record 21.6%, this improvement was driven by price more than offsetting inflation, accretive segment margins from our Manitowoc Ice acquisition, the elimination of 2022 manufacturing and supply chain inefficiencies and productivity benefits from our transformation initiatives. We delivered record adjusted EPS of $1.03. Net interest expense was $33 million, and our adjusted tax rate was 15% during the quarter with a share count of 166.1 million. Please turn to Slide 12 labeled Q2 2023 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technology sales increased 9% and year-over-year, driven by commercial sales growth of 28% and industrial sales growth of 13%, which more than offset a decline in residential sales of 4%. Segment income grew 27% and return on sales expanded 250 basis points to 18.2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of equal to or greater than 200 basis points of improvement. The strong margin expansion was a result of price offsetting inflation and continued progress on our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Q2 2023 Water Solutions performance. In Q2, Water Solutions sales increased 51% to $336 million driven by our Manitowoc Ice acquisition, volume and price. Manitowoc Ice has continued to exceed our expectations. Q2 sales were approximately $135 million, up roughly 30% compared to the prior year period. Segment income grew 130% to $75 million and return on sales expanded 760 basis points to 22.2%, driven primarily by our Manitowoc Ice acquisition as well as efficiencies from our transformation initiatives. Within our residential business, we are seeing North America stabilized. We have also been evaluating our SKU mix and reducing complexity. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled Q2 2023 Pool performance. In Q2, Pool sales declined 28% to $334 million. The volume decline of 36 points was primarily due to channel inventory corrections in Q2. This year, a strong Q2 2022 comparison and cooler and wetter than usual U.S. weather. The pricing benefit of 8 points helped partially offset the volume decline. Despite lower Pool sales in Q2 2023, return on sales expanded 190 basis points due to price significantly offsetting inflation, rightsizing direct labor to align with lower volumes, the elimination of 2022 manufacturing and supply chain inefficiencies and benefits from our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 15, labeled Pentair Pool sell-in versus estimated industry sell-through. This slide provides an illustration of our Pool sale sell-in and the estimated comparison to industry channel sell-through since 2019. Here, you can see the imbalance of sell-in and sell-through beginning in 2020 and continuing to expand in 2021 and 2022 due to record inflation and supply chain disruption. In 2023, we have returned to normal lead times and sell-through is returning to normalized levels. We expect sell-in and sell-through to rebalance by 2024, following approximately $150 million of channel inventory correction in 2023. We expect this 2023 inventory correction to become a tailwind in 2024. Please turn to Slide 16, labeled transformation initiatives. Our transformation initiatives focus on 4 key themes
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question here will come from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
My first question, I suppose, was really around -- when we're looking at a couple of the guidance increases in the non-pool divisions, just wanted to try and understand the cadence of sales a little bit better through the back half. If I look at the Water business, for example, it looks like the guide implies a pretty heavy sequential declines in Q3 and 4. I just wanted to make sure I understood that right. And then also within IFT the guides implying year-on-year growth evaporate in the back half. Is that just a function of comps or something changing in the end market sell-through?
John Stauch:
I think we would describe it as more moderating, Julian. I think clearly, our Manitowoc performance from a year-over-year basis, there's a huge acquisition component year-over-year, but there's also the organic growth of nearly 30%, as Bob mentioned in his comments, those are the result of industry demand and our ability to fulfill those industry demand. And eventually, we start to moderate and compare against year-over-year comps that are more normalized. In the IFT side, I think what we're seeing is really strong growth in commercial and industrial, again, backlog related that will again moderate in the back half of the year. Moving to what I would say is more normalized on growth rates that we would expect on a longer-term basis, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood. And then just my quick follow-up on the Pool segment. On that point on inventories. So, it's obviously the sort of the weather impact early in the second quarter, which have been very well flagged for months now. Is your point that maybe delayed the requisite inventory depletion early on. But what's happened, say, so far in Q3, that's why you feel confident that the inventory depletion is on track to be finished by the end of September. Maybe just any color on how your conversations with channel partners and what you see on the sell-through, how has that evolved in the last 2 to 3 months?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think just on the Q2 numbers for Pool, I mean, it's solely in my opinion, related to more inventory coming out of the channel than we expected. I think the channel has done an amazing job of working and moving and migrating the inventory around branches to where it's needed, and they are aggressively working to eliminate that extra inventory from the channel. I think as we talk to our channel partners for Q3 and Q4, we continue to believe that all of the inventory or the excess inventory will be worked out in Q3, reflecting our current guide, and we would be talking on more normal early buy discussions as we ramp into Q4 as we anticipate the 2024 demand, and coming back to a more normalized seasonal performance. That being said, Pool is, in our opinion, really low in Q3 from our revenue forecast as it deals with that volume decline for us related to that inventory and channel correction.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John and Bob, maybe give us a little more color into the progress on transformation because if you look at the segments, obviously, IFT, for example, 18.2% seems quite a bit ahead of plan. So what has gone right for you guys here over the last couple of quarters? And would you expect that progress to continue?
Robert Fishman:
I would say we're very pleased with Wave 1 across the board, particularly pleased within sourcing. As a reminder, Wave 1 consisted mainly of motors and drives, casting, electronics, logistics, packaging and then Wave 2, you can think of that as being metals, resins, purchase finished goods and a component of indirect spend. We've seen a lot of benefit within the transportation area within Wave 1 and 2024 is setting up for benefits in the other components of the Wave 1 spend. One of the areas that we've done a really nice job is capturing deflation, particularly across resins, plastics, motors, metals and castings where our team went in and did an expedited response to what they saw in the global marketplace. We're able to strengthen relationship with suppliers and actually take advantage of pricing that was coming down in the number of different commodity groups. I would say within kind of the ocean space, the expedited air on the air consumption, that's down over 50% from where it was last year. And ocean rates are down some 65%. The final thing I would say is that we've done a really nice job of rightsizing to the volumes that we expected from a direct labor perspective, and that's all about having headlights into the business and taking the corrective action. And then finally, there were a lot of inefficiencies in 2022. Spot buys, expedites, partial truckloads, partial completion of products where we'd have to push a 90% complete product off the line and wait for a part to come in. We had overtime attrition. We've done a really nice job of addressing those inefficiencies as part of the transformation as well. So across the Board, we're very pleased and I'm very thankful to the team that works on this every day.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Bob, it's good color. And then maybe somewhat related question around pricing and particularly in Pool. I know it's one of your initiatives there, too. But -- maybe you could talk about your ability to hold price given the way the markets are. Have you seen any deterioration? Obviously, your margins were still good, and how would you think about Pool margin moving forward?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I think as we head into 2024, we're certainly pleased with the way prices held up in 2023 in relationship to what Bob said. And I think that's indicative of the way that ROS expansion has unfolded. I think we're going in a more normalized pricing environment now, Andy. And I think that -- that means that we have to rely on those price increases and work hard on the productivity aspects to drive the margin. And I think we're going to see normal and then I think it depends on how these industries fare as to what would be the expected hold rate or the realization rate of those price increases in 2024, and it's way too early to tell.
Operator:
And our next question here will come from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair :
I wanted to ask about transformation, obviously driving pretty strong results already, and you've noted that you're early stage and the respective waves of those initiatives. As we look to your 2025 gross target to level set, what are you baking in for core growth between now and then? And then what level of reinvestment is contemplated? The reason I ask is that just the simple math, if we assume any core growth in kind of moderate realization of the sourcing opportunity that you've identified that seems to drive ROS above the targeted range and then the other levers imply pretty solid offset.
John Stauch:
Yes, I think that's fair, Brian. I think I would talk about, as Bob mentioned, we're really pleased on the early indications of transformation. As a reminder, we're using outside partners to give us benchmark looks at what's possible and working with us to give us breakthrough thinking and putting in establishing core processes to drive this transformation. So we feel like it's going to be consistent and predictable. The one thing I would share with you, though, as you look at our targets is they're also inclusive of investments and we have a lot of energy around investing in our channels, our obsession around customer experiences, improving those customer experiences and investing in innovation. And those are offsets to the transformation benefits that we would expect. And as you can imagine, Pool has been an innovation leader for many years. It's been playing a little bit of defense lately. And we want to put our foot to the pedal there and really drive both product innovation and go-to-market innovation. So expect us to invest back in our businesses.
Bryan Blair :
Understood. That all makes sense. Appreciate the color. I know your attention focused on debt reduction since the Manitowoc Ice closed. But your balance sheet starting in pretty solid shape. You're generating really robust cash flow given your financial position and clearly successful integration of Man Ice, just wondering if your team will get back to bolt-on or tuck-in M&A over the near term?
Robert Fishman:
I would say that the focus for this year continues to be on debt pay down, where interest rates are. We think that's the wisest use of the capital. And then that creates optionality going into 2024 around share repurchase and M&A.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
So a couple of commercial questions here. First, on Manitowoc Ice. Can you just give some context to what's going on in the channel right now? I guess a little from an inventory perspective, but more from what are the customers saying from a demand perspective, how do you think about the sustainability of what you're seeing underneath the hood? And then some comments on how Man Ice is performing well to peers would be great.
John Stauch:
Yes. I think if you look back at the 8 years prior to 2019, 7, 8 years, like this has historically been a 5% to 6% steady grower with some years that might be slightly higher, slightly lower based upon how the restaurant and hospitality market unfolds. Clearly, if you take '19 as a starting point to where we expect '23 to finish, think about being high single-digits. What we want to remind people is there's a significant catch-up to the significant downturn that hospitality industry has faced and that's a big part of the start-up and the demand. As I referenced in my note, we're now back slightly above the 2019 restaurant numbers. So I think we're going to see more of the historical trend pattern as we look forward in this business going forward. Our ability this year to grow faster was the share capture that was really based upon -- having gone through the supply chain work that we're doing elsewhere in Pentair, ironically and completely coincidentally, Manitowoc is using the same outsource partner that we're using on the rest of Pentair and started that sourcing initiative 3 to 4 years earlier than us. And so they were able to put the supply chain into place that allow them to be prepared and ready to partner to get these increased demands, and that's been a big benefit to the Manitowoc business. It's also very encouraging for us on what the rest of Pentair can realize as well.
Mike Halloran:
Good point. Kind of answer I was going to ask on the commercial question for the second part there and on the outlook side. So let me pivot to the IFT piece. It's nice to see the margins kind of tranche higher in these last couple of quarters. And I was just hoping to get a little bit more context to how you think about what that progression forward looks like for the segment specifically, how much impact the mix is going to have? Clearly, the transformational piece is a core part of that progression. And if there's any moving pieces below the hood that we should think about as you look to the back half of the year there?
John Stauch:
Yes, special call out to our commercial and infrastructure team on just getting to margins in ROS is that, quite frankly, Mike, I didn't think were possible, right? And I think they're doing it while they're growing, which is extremely encouraging. That being said, I think as we go forward, it's going to be about how we continue to win projects and jobs that have aftermarket and service [Indiscernible] to them, how we can grow at mid-single digits, while maybe more likely maintaining these margins. Because as you know, when you get these tailwinds in the industry, it's easy to be selective -- it's harder to be selective when the jobs get tougher to find. And I think that's the discipline we're putting into the group. But it's really encouraging to see the progress they made. I think they still see opportunities to expand the ROS. But again, this is an area we want to invest in. And as you know, one of the things that has always talked about is blue water, right? So we're really strong on the fire pump side, and we've been able to find synergies by bringing the clean water side to some of the projects we've worked on, and we've been able to do that at the appropriate margins. So it's really encouraging to see that growth and the margins at the same time.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
A lot of mine have been covered, but I had a couple of maybe modeling specific ones. I guess on the record ROS, when I look at the full year guide, I know this might be a little bit timing related or -- and maybe a little bit of nitpicking, but it seems like the implied ROS is down here in 4Q. Can you kind of walk us through some of the puts and takes just exiting the year? As you think about driving more expansion into '24 as your comments suggested?
Robert Fishman:
The guidance that we've given actually has us expanding ROS year-over-year, both in Q3 and even more significantly in Q4. So that is one of our rallying crises to continue to expand ROS year-on-year again, a little bit less in Q3 because of the headwind of the Pool business. But overall, transformation continues to read out in the back half of the year.
Brian Lee:
Okay. Understood. Yes, we'll go back and take a closer look at the model. And then maybe just on Pool. It sounds like you're pretty confident around trends bottoming here, inventory sell-through, sell-in normalization. So I know it's probably too early to tell, but any initial thoughts around what all of that points to the rest of this year kind of goes according to plan and pool. Are we thinking about a reasonable base case back to like mid-single digit volume, maybe low single-digit type pricing tailwinds in '24? Just sort of what's the setup as you think about what the normalization and how quickly it plays out, gets you to in terms of a reasonable base case to get back to normal growth trends in '24, potentially?
Robert Fishman:
One of the reasons why we added that extra chart was to try and give some view of the headwinds this year and what could be a potential tailwind for next year. So we did quantify the inventory correction at about $150 million. And so that will not repeat next year. So in itself, that's a $150 million good guide in 2024. We're not giving any view as to what aftermarket might grow, still too early from that perspective. But from an overall pricing perspective, price has been sticky from our perspective and that we do expect price increases as we go into next year.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank.
Andrew Krill:
I wanted to go back to Water Solutions. Here, the margins were very strong in the second quarter. And historically, they've had a nice sequential step-up going into 3Q. So I know Manitowoc kind of changes the mix a bit. But I mean, do you still expect a meaningful increase sequentially there for the margin?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. We -- sequentially, we will be roughly in line, I would say, to maybe slightly down because we just won't drive that amount of volume and necessarily get the leverage that we saw from an Ice perspective. But overall, when we look at the different pieces, the filtration as well as the residential piece within Water Solutions, we continue to see transformation playing a big role. So I would say year-on-year, significant ROS expansion in Q3 for Water Solutions, a little bit of pressure as you go from Q2 to Q3 just because -- to John's earlier point, seasonality that's start to return to more normalized levels.
Andrew Krill:
Okay. Great. Makes sense. And I guess, to the extent you're willing to comment on weather, it seems like it's normalized so far in July. Any comments you can give on July trends so far for Pool and then maybe just for the broader company as well?
John Stauch:
Yes. I hate to bring the weather word into the focus. And as I said earlier, I don't think it played as much into our Q2 Pool softness as the inventory correction did. Weather usually intends to work its way out eventually throughout the period. So I would say right now, we're seeing heat trends that have some positives in certain areas to driving demand. And at the same time, when it gets this hot, you don't necessarily need heaters. So I don't -- I would not bring weather into our forecast at all. I think everything we know today from our weather forecasting has been included in our guide, and we don't expect weather to be a big part of our discussion going forward.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Not too bad. I'm not going to ask you about the assumptions that underlie your weather forecast. Yes. So just on the kind of phases of this transformation, you mentioned logistics? I mean obviously, the logistics prices in general are down, how do you like disaggregate what you guys are doing versus just like the normal deflationary cycles that are happening in these types of materials?
Robert Fishman:
From our perspective, and I'm not trying to be flipping here, but even in the deflationary environment, there's work to be done. We need to go back to the suppliers and point out commodity prices that are coming down. So our view is that either through our negotiation process, either through the structured 11 gate process within Wave 1 and Wave 2. We have to understand the market, first of all, make sure we're asking for price decreases or longer-term price stability and so it's all part -- from our perspective of that strategic sourcing initiative.
John Stauch:
But Steve, just to add on that, I agree with everything Bob said, and we're happy, but it is a benefit of the deflationary, the work we do to negotiate. But also, we have reduced our carriers by almost 2/3. And we did do a series of route optimizations and choose partners that are best to serve the routes and the lines that we need, and that was a big part of the work that's generating the savings.
Steve Tusa:
Right. That makes sense. Can you just remind us what the benefit from transformation is for next year? I'm not sure if you mentioned that earlier in the call.
Robert Fishman:
We did not.
Steve Tusa:
Can you just update us on what you expect that to be?
Robert Fishman:
What we've said up until now is we'll go from what will be roughly a 21% ROS this year to 23% by 2025. And our view is that roughly linear as we get to that 23%. So -- and transformation plays a big piece of that margin expansion.
Steve Tusa:
What percentage?
John Stauch:
Larger than that increase because we're also putting back investment, Steve. So I think the next wave that we'll start to realize is the significant Wave 1 benefits of the purchasing savings and the direct material that we're doing. And you could assume that, as Bob said in prior comments that, that's a double-digit savings against about 1/3 of the material buy.
Steve Tusa:
Sorry, one more on all this. Where will that show up in the bridges? Will that show up as -- in all parts of the bridges or productivity? So it won't be part of like inflation. If you if you execute better on some of those purchasing initiatives, maybe that shows up in net inflation? You're saying that the transfer -- all the transformation will be bucketed in that productivity bar?
John Stauch:
Price bar and productivity bar, correct.
Steve Tusa:
The price bar as well?
John Stauch:
Well, price is the transformation work we're doing on the strategic price initiatives, right? So it's a piece of the price contribution and then the productivity of the transformation is a piece of the productivity contribution.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc.
David Tarantino :
This is David Tarantino on for Jeff. Maybe just to attack the margins a bit different. Margin's been pretty impressive the last couple of quarters. Could you parse out what the price cost tailwinds just kind of from carryover and normal pricing actions and what was kind of the early benefits from the transformation program?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. When you look at -- price has read out nicely in the first 2 quarters, that will moderate in the back half and basically land around that mid-single-digit price benefit for the year. We are taking advantage primarily of carryover pricing with that advantage. And just as a reminder, there were many years or at least a couple of years where we were catching up and price versus cost was a headwind. It has been a tailwind over the last few quarters. But think of that as mainly carryover pricing decisions we made last year that benefited the first half.
David Tarantino :
Great. And then maybe just a cleanup one on Pool, maybe outside of the destock, how would you describe the sell-through in the channel versus expectations? It seems like trends were maybe a bit softer and then on that kind of -- maybe could you level set us on what you would expect the magnitude of the prebuy, like what's implied in the guide, given we've had an unusual recent couple of years?
John Stauch:
Yes, I'll take the first one. I think sell-through as a whole this year through the first couple of quarters is slightly behind our original expectations. And I think that is a combination of some of the prebuys that happened in previous periods. It's also probably discretionary items that are being pushed out as consumers are dealing with the rest of their finances. And then as has been mentioned, from the industry. I think some of the finance Pools are slower than they were originally anticipated. As we go forward, and you look at early buy, we talk about normalized early buy. And about half of our Q4 shipments fall into those early buy categories. And the rest of the Q4 shipments are generally more standard orders. And we work those programs through the end of Q3 into Q4. And generally, we know what those orders are and wouldn't know what those orders are at the Q3 earnings call.
Operator:
Our next question here comes from Damian Karas with UBS.
Damian Karas:
Maybe in the spirit of the summer, a couple of follow-up questions on Pool. That business is obviously operating at a really healthy level of profitability despite the demand pressures you're facing now. Just curious how you're thinking about..
John Stauch:
Your breaking up just a little bit.
Damian Karas:
I apologize. Could you hear me?
John Stauch:
If you wouldn't mind repeating the question, please?
Damian Karas:
Yes, absolutely. So I just wanted to ask you about Pool margins. I mean it's very profitable right now despite the volume pressures, so how are you thinking about what that trajectory should look like next year as the inventory headwinds reverse and you get a demand recovery?
John Stauch:
Do we have another question?
Operator:
We'll move on to our next question from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
I will ask one on IFT. Volume has been pretty flat overall for the last couple of quarters. But you've talked about being more selective on projects. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about how much the growth is where you want to grow versus maybe how much the declines are where you're not looking to grow?
John Stauch:
When you think of Flow, Nathan, you got to remind us that we've got a residential business around pumps, and that has been slow and down soft, right? And that's reflecting the residential trends in the Water Solutions as well as Pool. And so when we talk about Flows and overall growth, what we're really seeing is growth in infrastructure, commercial. As a reminder, commercial buildings aren't just office buildings, they also include data centers. They include warehousing. They include any type of infrastructure that would require or need fire pumps as well as water coming into that building and wastewater exiting that building. And so that has been a strategic point of ours, and we want to grow in those spaces. We're strong in those spaces. And so really what you've got is a residential, commercial and infrastructure mix here.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Maybe then just one more on the Water Solutions business. I think you -- there's basically inventory destocking going on there as well that you had expected to probably end in 2Q. Is that the case in where kind of a bit more back to sell-in matching sell-through in that business?
John Stauch:
Yes. We're actually through most of the inventory challenges in the residential Water Solutions side of the business, Nathan. And what we have as a reminder is we exited direct-to-consumer businesses that we had, and we did that in Q4 last year, and so we're working through those year-over-year comps related to those decisions. And so the underlying growth of our core systems -- in our core components business is moderating, but it doesn't yet have inventory challenges or doesn't have inventory challenges.
Operator:
Our next question here will come from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
So yes, we kind of touched on this, but IFT so like more than 100% of the growth is priced right now and the volumes were modestly negative. As you look into the second half, price moderates, like does volume from where we are today, do you expect that as the year progresses to further deteriorate? Or does that start to pick up some of the likely moderation of price?
John Stauch:
We continue to believe on the Flow side, and remember, IFT is an industrial solutions business as well as Flow. I mean Flow has traditionally, we would think it is a low single-digit to mid-single-digit contributor and we're moderating back to those growth rates as we get to the second half, which we believe is normal. And then what we've got to do is make sure the mix of the business is start to contribute more to the margin expansion side. And we've gotten a lot of productivity and a lot of strategic projects out of C&I. But as a reminder, R&I tends to be the higher margin side of that business. And so we would expect that contribution get more normalized as we go forward.
Joe Giordano:
Meaning volumes like don't necessarily reflect higher in the second half. Is that -- am I reading that right?
John Stauch:
That's correct. Yes.
Joe Giordano:
Okay. And then you guys -- you commented on Pool that you've done well and like adjusting headcount appropriately to the lower levels here. You have sizable revenue declines and margins up nicely. How do we think about margins as the volume start to come back, like as you need to add headcount? Like is this a good level to build off of, just like 30%, 70% rate? Or could there be kind of like -- for like -- a better way to say, like a lack of incremental margin expansion on revenue growth as that inflects?
John Stauch:
It's a good basis to build off of. As we grow from here, we begin to get volume leverage on the on the overhead structure of the business. The only thing that would be an add-back is rebasing commissions that would be relative to selling the product throughout the channel. But when you think all that, growth is a really good thing and this is a really good level to model off of. With that, I'd like to provide some closing comments. Thank you to everybody for joining us today. And I wanted to reiterate our earnings call key themes
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Welcome to the Pentair First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Shelly, please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, MJ, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter's performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's release. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. Please limit your questions to one plus a follow up then reenter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. Before I hand it over to John, I wanted to highlight Slides 4 through 6 in our earnings slide deck that illustrate our strategic framework, Pentair at a glance and a Pentair overview. We believe this information is helpful to understanding who Pentair is, especially for those new to Pentair. Our strategic framework states our purpose, mission, vision and values that drive our performance as a smart sustainable water solutions company. Pentair at a glance on Slide 5 provides a great snapshot of our company, our performance, our installed base and our 40-year track record – 47-year track record of annual dividend increases, which places us in a small group of companies. Lastly, the Pentair overview on Slide 6 provides our historical sales and ROS performance on a consolidated level and by segment. This information was first disclosed last quarter in the supplemental data section and is now illustrated on one slide. As you can see, over the last three years, we have grown sales by a compound annual growth rate of nearly 12% and ROS has expanded by 110 basis points on a consolidated basis. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly. Good morning everyone. Let's begin with our strong Q1 results in the executive summary on Slide 7. We are very pleased with our first quarter performance, which reflected a strong start to our fiscal year as we help the world sustainably move, improve, enjoy water, life's most essential resource. Q1 sales rose 3% to over $1 billion, segment income increased 23% to $211 million, and ROS expanded by 330 basis points to 20.5%. Adjusted EPS rose over 7% to $0.91. Segment income and ROS each achieved record levels post the nVent separation in 2018. I'd like to thank our talented Pentair employees for once again delivering for customers while creating value for shareholders. Strong results reflect the strength of our diversified water portfolio and progress on our transformation initiatives, which drove greater efficiencies across each segment. For example, growth in our Industrial & Flow Technologies, or IFT, and Water Solutions segment more than offset the expected volume declines in Pool year-over-year. We improved ROS expansion across the enterprise and realized operational efficiencies as our transformation initiatives accelerated. We are driving these actions at the revenue stream or category level, which not only provides the go-to-market and customer insights, but also the ownership and accountability to realize savings and other opportunities that we have identified. Let's move on to Slide 8, titled Q1 Highlights. Within our IFT segment, growth was driven primarily across our commercial, industrial and even residential and irrigation verticals. We are excited about the near and long term growth and margin profile of this segment as our transformation is taking hold. We are focused on capturing the right projects with improved offerings to drive margin expansion. We realized benefits in pricing, sourcing and operational excellence, and we expect more opportunities ahead. We also had customer wins for our sustainability-related technology that reduces water usage and recapture CO2. Additionally, we drove aftermarket and replacement revenue in our membranes and pump portfolio. In our Water Solutions segment, we are very pleased with our Manitowoc Ice acquisition, which complements our commercial Water Solutions businesses, enabling us to provide end-to-end water solutions for customers from filtration to ice to services. The integration remains on track, has progressed well and was accretive to segment margins. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect 2023 to be a softer year for our Pool segment. During the first quarter, unusual U.S. weather in the west, expected higher channel inventory and strong demand in the prior year contributed to declining volume. Despite the decline in year-over-year volume, the installed base has continued to grow over the last three years, and we believe the Pool segment is an attractive market. As we look forward, we continue to invest in leading innovation, specifically automation, which helps to save energy, time and water and enables pool owners control of their pools directly from their smart device. Today, roughly 50% of installed pools have automated systems. This is an area where we see the greatest opportunity as consumers look to maintain control of their pool function at the tip of their fingers. Good examples of our latest pool innovations are the IntelliFlo3 Variable Speed and Flow Pool Pump, also known as the IF3 and the IntelliCenter pool Automation System. Our IF3 is the first pump with WiFi and Bluetooth connectivity for remote control monitoring and over-the-air, or OTA, updates. It also features built-in IoT connectivity, which simplifies installation setup and operation for our dealers. Market reactions and dealer feedback to the launch of our new flagship IF3 Pool Pump has been extremely positive, and we're pleased overall with the demand we have seen despite a slower start to the pool season. We believe our IntelliCenter Pool Automation System is the most feature-rich and expandable pool automation system on the market to easily control even the most complex and advanced pools. The system is powered by AWS Cloud technology for improved stability, connectivity, scheduling and reliability. Our digital automation technology centralizes control for multiple pool devices from water features to lights to pumps. In pool, lead times have continued to improve, enabling us to better serve our customers and deliver our products more quickly. Moving on to Slide 9, titled Making Better Essential. We recently released our 2022 corporate responsibility report on April 18, and we are excited that we have made progress on our strategic social responsibility targets. We are focused on advancing a sustainable future through innovation in our products and solutions to create a better world for people on the planet through smart, sustainable water solutions. Turning to Slide 10, titled Social Responsibility Strategic Targets. In 2022, we reduced Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 29% as compared to our 2019 baseline and we decreased our water withdrawal, which represents a 9.3% reduction compared to 2021. We also implemented a sustainability scorecard process for all new Pentair product development to help us better understand the sustainability impact and opportunity of each new product. Moving to Slide 11, titled Positive Impacts from our Products and Solutions, we are proud of the continued progress we have made in our operations and towards sustainable products and solutions. A few examples include 37% of our total electricity usage came from renewable sources and 83% of Pentair's solutions support energy efficiency and 71% support water efficiency. For the eleventh consecutive year, Pentair has received the ENERGY STAR Partner of the Year Award from the EPA. This award recognizes Pentair pool pumps and Manitowoc Ice excellence in energy efficiency. In fact, Pentair was the first manufacturer of pool equipment to receive this certification for our pool pumps. Since 2005, our ENERGY STAR pool pumps have saved a cumulative 38.9 billion kilowatt hours of energy savings, reduced greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 16 million tons of CO2 and saved over $5 billion in operating costs for U.S. consumers. Before I turn it over to Bob, let's turn to Slide 12, titled CEO Summary. We delivered quality earnings across our diversified portfolio and positioned the company for sustained value creation. Our Q1 performance was a strong start to our fiscal year, which reflected sales growth and ROS expansion driven by a diverse water portfolio as well as efficiencies from transformation. Manitowoc Ice has assimilated well and contributed ahead of expectations. Bob will discuss our second quarter and full year 2023 guidance in more detail. However, I wanted to share with you some of my thoughts on our current outlook. As we look to the remainder of 2023, we continue to closely monitor macroeconomic developments and remain mindful of an uncertain operating environment. We are implementing risk-mitigation strategies, and accelerating transformation funnels is necessary while focusing on investing in the long-term growth of our company. We've reduced our pool revenue expectations, reflecting both a lower sell-through due to economic uncertainty and the previously expected inventory headwinds, while increasing our expected margin expansion, reflecting Q1 performance and confidence in our transformation progress. We also expect Water Solutions and IFT performance to continue throughout 2023 as informed by orders, backlog and transformation efficiencies. As a result, we are raising the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guidance to $3.65, reflecting our strong Q1 performance while maintaining the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance range at $3.70. We are confident in our diversified water business model, long-term strategy and our transformation initiatives, which we anticipate will continue to drive shareholder returns. We have a long successful track record of generating strong cash flow and being disciplined with capital allocation. This year marks our 47th consecutive year of dividend increases. And longer term, we are targeting getting back to high teens ROIC. We have the right purpose, the right team, the right portfolio and the right strategy to win in this market. We believe we have a very solid foundation and the competitive advantages to continue to succeed. I will now pass the call over to Bob, who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 13, titled Q1 2023 Pentair Performance. We delivered better-than-expected first quarter sales growth of 3% driven by pricing benefits across all three segments and the contribution of our Manitowoc Ice acquisition, which were partially offset by volume declines in our residential businesses. Our higher-than-expected sales in the quarter were driven by better performance in IFT and Water Solutions, offset by slightly lower-than-expected sales in our Pool segment, primarily due to unusual weather in the West. Core sales declined 3% mainly driven by a 16% decrease in Pool after Pool grew 23% in last year's Q1 and 48% in Q1 of 2021, partially offset by core growth of 11% in IFT and 2% in Water Solutions. First quarter segment income increased 23%, and return on sales expanded 330 basis points year-over-year to 20.5%, driven by price more than offsetting inflation, productivity benefits from our transformation initiatives and accretive margins from our Manitowoc Ice acquisition. As John mentioned, both segment income and ROS in Q1 hit record levels post separation of nVent. We delivered better-than-expected adjusted EPS of $0.91, up 7% versus the prior year. Net interest and other expense was $33 million, and our adjusted tax rate was 15% during the quarter with a share count of 165.8 million. Our better-than-expected segment income and adjusted EPS were driven by higher sales, price offsetting inflation and better contribution from our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled Q1 2023 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. IFT sales increased 9% in the quarter, which included two points of FX headwinds. Core sales increased 11%, segment income grew 25% and return on sales expanded 200 basis points to 16.6%, marking the third consecutive quarter of equal to or greater than 200 basis points of improvement. The strong margin expansion was a result of price offsetting inflation and continued progress on our transformation initiatives. Sales growth in IFT was driven across all businesses, led by commercial flow and industrial solutions, along with growth in residential flow. Please turn to Slide 15, labeled Q1 2023 Water Solutions Performance. In Q1, Water Solutions sales increased 32% driven by our Manitowoc Ice acquisition and price. Core sales grew 2%. The three points of volume decline was primarily due to the continued inventory correction across many product lines in our residential channels. Segment income grew 136%, and return on sales expanded 850 basis points to 19.3%, driven by our ICE acquisition as well as efficiencies from our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 16, labeled Q1 2023 Pool Performance. In Q1, Pool sales declined 16%, which was slightly below our expectations. The volume decline of 27 points was primarily due to unusual weather in the Western U.S. in the first quarter of this year, inventory corrections in this year's Q1 and a strong prior year comparison. The pricing benefit of 11 points helped partially offset the volume decline and was due to carryover from the prior year. Despite lower sales year-over-year, return on sales expanded 520 basis points to 31.9% due to price significantly offsetting inflation, rightsizing to lower volumes and benefits from our transformation initiatives. Please turn to Slide 17, labeled Transformation Expectations. We continue to make progress on our transformation with realized successes in Q1 regarding pricing and sourcing, which drove margin expansion. As we shared with you last quarter, we expect to drive ROS expansion of over 400 basis points by year-end 2025 as compared to 2022. As I mentioned last quarter, in pricing, we completed wave one, which established a new strategic pricing playbook. This creates a foundation for pricing across our different go-to-market strategies and includes looking at our dealer and distributor programs to better optimize them. We continue to gain insight into profitability by customer and product category and use this data to better drive our forecast. We believe pricing remains a big opportunity. We are building capabilities and starting to see benefits materialize. We expect future waves to include the implementation of a pricing playbook across all of our product categories. We are furthest along in our strategic sourcing initiatives. As I've mentioned previously, material costs represent roughly 40% of our revenue. We have completed wave one negotiations that focused on key categories like electronics, motors and drives, castings, packaging, logistics and MRO. Wave one included roughly 35% of material spend and identified over 12% in saving opportunities. We have unlocked value through supplier-dedicated resources, supply base reduction, inventory solutions, enhanced supplier executive-level relationships and rebate programs. In Q1, over 120 Pentair cross-functional team members attended workshops to begin the wave one implementation process. Wave two was launched in Q1 and covers another 35% of material spend for commodity groups, such as metals, plastics and molding, purchased finished goods, transportation, and indirect spend such as IT, fleet management and office supplies. We expect this will create a funnel of savings for 2023 and 2024. In operations excellence, we are focused on reducing complexity and driving lean processes across all our operations. We believe this presents longer-term opportunities but not until 2024 and beyond as we build out the funnel. Lastly, in organizational effectiveness we are focusing on sales and functional excellence to simplify our organization. From an organizational standpoint, we believe ample opportunities remain for complexity reduction across the entire portfolio and a realignment of needed skills within our top priorities. We continue to move transformation from funnel to execution, and we expect more material benefits to contribute to our longer-term margin expansion targets. We continue to believe that our transformation initiatives will be a large value-creation opportunity for Pentair. Please turn to Slide 18, labeled balance sheet and cash flow. This slide reflects the closing of the Manitowoc acquisition at the end of July of last year. We ended the quarter with pro forma leverage at 2.6 times. Our ROIC was at 15.2%, and as a reminder this includes debt from the Manitowoc Ice acquisition with only approximately 3/4 of Manitowoc EBITDA contribution. We recently entered into interest rate swap and collar agreements in order to hedge our variable rate debt. We now expect the mix of variable to fixed debt to be closer to 50/50 by the end of Q2. We have no significant long-term debt maturing for the next few years, and almost the majority of our debt is in term loans going out three to five years. We used $123 million of free cash flow in Q1, which reflects typical seasonality and was roughly $25 million better than the prior year. As a reminder, the second quarter is typically our highest free cash flow quarter of the year, and we expect full year free cash flow to be in line with our historical performance of 100% of net income. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment. Moving to Slide 19, titled Q2 and full year 2023 Pentair outlook. For the full year we are updating adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $3.60 to $3.70, raising the midpoint. Also for the full year we expect sales to be roughly down 2% to flat. We expect segment income to increase 7% to 10% with corporate expense of approximately $80 million, net interest expense of roughly $125 million, and adjusted tax rate of approximately 15% and a share count of 165 million to 166 million. For the second quarter, we expect sales to be approximately down 1% to flat versus last year's Q2 as the contribution of Manitowoc Ice and our commercial and industrial businesses are expected to help offset expected volume declines from our residential businesses. We are introducing adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $0.94 to $0.96, which represents a year-over-year decrease of approximately 6% to 8%, primarily due to lower pool volumes. We expect an improvement in the second quarter versus the $0.91 of adjusted EPS in Q1. We expect segment income to increase 5% to 7% with corporate expense coming in around $21 million, net interest expense of roughly $34 million, and adjusted tax rate of approximately 15% and a share count of 165 million to 166 million. Moving to Slide 20, titled full year 2023 guidance at midpoint. At the midpoint, we expect total Pentair sales to be down approximately 1%. While the sales midpoint has not changed, our sales mix and assumptions have. We now expect IFT to perform better than we expected 90 days ago and Pool sales to decline from our original expectations due to increased economic uncertainty and lower new pool construction. We now expect IFT sales to be up low-single digits, Water Solutions to be unchanged with sales up mid-teens and Pool sales to be down approximately in the mid-teen range as compared to down low-double digits previously. As we have discussed in prior quarters, our Pool sales consist of 20% from new pools, 20% from remodels and 60% from the aftermarket. Within our current Pool guidance, we now expect new pools and remodels to be down approximately 25% versus previous assumptions of down approximately 20% and inventory in aftermarket to be down roughly 20% compared to previous assumptions of down 15% with approximately two-thirds of the decline relating to inventory corrections. We expect price carryover of roughly mid-single digits. We do expect Pool to return to more normalized demand in 2024 after absorbing significant headwinds in the current year. Segment income is now expected to increase approximately 9% as compared to 8% previously with ROS expansion of nearly 200 basis points to 20.5% as compared to 20.2% last quarter. We are encouraged by the diversity of our portfolio, the integration of Manitowoc Ice and the continued momentum of our transformation initiatives, which are expected to drive significant margin expansion. Before I turn the call over for Q&A, I wanted to highlight why we believe that Pentair is a compelling investment opportunity. Please turn to Slide 21. There are six distinguishing characteristics that we believe sets Pentair apart. We are an industry leader with a diversified brand portfolio and a focus on driving innovation across all three segments. We have a transformation strategy that is expected to drive operational efficiencies and margin expansion. We have an ESG focus on people, the planet and governance to provide smart, sustainable water solutions. And we just recently published our 2022 corporate responsibility report, highlighting progress towards our strategic targets. We have favorable secular trends driving end-market growth. We have a strong balance sheet and cash flow, which we expect to drive additional value creation. And we are a dividend aristocrat with 47 consecutive years of increasing dividends. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which, John will have a few closing remarks. MJ, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
Mike Halloran:
Hi. Good morning everyone. Really nice quarter, really nice quarter. So a couple of questions here. First on the Man Ice side of things. Maybe can you just talk a little bit about where you're seeing the outperformance from and then also a little bit of context on how you're looking at the forward outlook? What kind of visibility you have? What customers are saying? Any kind of context around that?
Bob Fishman:
See the Manitowoc Ice performance has been significant from our perspective. We – I often get asked the question. So this year, in Q1, we drove roughly $95 million of sales in Manitowoc, and that's versus them doing around $75 million last year. And again, think of that business as high 20s from a margin perspective. I would say one thing that's helped is they have significant backlog in the business. They're clearing that. But probably more importantly, if you think about the go-to-market strategy, as we combine ice services and our commercial filtration business, my view is that one plus one plus one adds up to more than three, and the opportunity to go-to-market in that way has really helped the business.
Mike Halloran:
And then on the pool side of things, obviously, the margins were particularly impressive given where the volume levels we're at. Maybe you can just frame, provide a little bit more context around the drivers behind that? I know you commented on price transformation, but a little more detail on that. And then how should we think of the sustainability of this margin range, particularly given you still have a lot of volume variability ahead of you?
John Stauch:
Yes. Mike, I'll tag team this one. And I think we talked openly last couple of years about the inefficiencies in our manufacturing process from not having our supply chain aligned to the volume demands. And those inefficiencies came from freight premiums to get product in and out as well as the overtime that we were running in our factories. As we were able to have more visibility and clarity on the demand throughout the channel, Mike, we were able to eliminate most of those inefficiencies. And spot buys are a big piece of what we are dealing with, too, and we saw huge positive impacts in Q1 regarding that. I share that because while we're getting some of the transformation benefits in pool, what really ups our confidence as most of the transformation benefits around the ongoing sourcing savings and the operational efficiencies really are in the later quarters and we have a lot of confidence that we're going to realize those in addition to these inefficiencies going away.
Bob Fishman:
The only thing I would add is I think pool has done a really nice job back in Q3, Q4 of last year and seeing the channel correction ahead of us, they did a nice job of rightsizing to those lower volumes.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks John and Bob. I appreciate it.
John Stauch:
Thanks Mike.
Operator:
The next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Bryan Blair:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bryan Blair:
Actually wanted to follow up on Mike's question on the Manitowoc outperformance. Obviously, pacing ahead of plan. You mentioned the strong pro forma growth year-on-year. Is high 20s margin an EBITDA or ROS figure, just to clarify on that? And how should we think about that phasing through the year, whether there's lift possible? And are you willing to speak to a new accretion range for 2023?
Bob Fishman:
It is a ROS number to answer your first question. And again, our view is that Manitowoc Ice is an extremely well-run business as part of our portfolio. Our goal is to continue to keep the margins in that high 20s range and have them take advantage of the transformation initiatives as well. But we don't want to get ahead of ourselves with that business either. For now, the performance is going exceptionally well.
John Stauch:
And as a reminder, when COVID evolved, I mean, the space that we're in took one of the bigger hits across the Pentair portfolio, right? So we're still dealing with global openings of restaurants, hospitality, gyms, et cetera. And that's really driving the trends in our foodservice operations, both with Manitowoc performance, but also with our Everpure filtration and our services operations as well. So really feel good that we've got visibility in this space and that we're coming together to solve some customer solutions in a way that make those customers want to continue to work with us.
Bryan Blair:
All makes sense. It's good to hear. And within Water Solutions, resi weakness to start the year, that was obviously anticipated. Any update you can offer, insight into current channel trends and whether over the next couple of quarters, we may be more in balance in terms of channel inventory?
John Stauch:
Yes. As a reminder, we've had – part of this delta negative year-over-year is driven by our exits of our direct-to-consumer initiatives. But when you look at the core underlying residential water treatment trends, they're still positive and encouraging as people are looking for the best water that they can have in their homes. And when you look across your channels, we're still seeing modest growth across most of our end channels.
Bryan Blair:
Understood. I appreciate the color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho Americas. Please go ahead.
Brett Linzey:
Hi. Good morning all.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Brett Linzey:
Hi. I want to come back to wave two of the transformation. It sounds like you've got a lot of organizational muscle around these opportunities. With regards to wave two, is there anything unique about the phasing or the timing of the benefits relative to wave one? Or should we think of this as sort of linear through 2024?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. And just as a reminder, we have the four major initiatives in transformation. They all have different waves, in particular, around sourcing the wave one negotiations is complete now. So we're moving on to the wave one implementation, and at the same time running a parallel activity around the next $500 million, $600 million of spend in wave two. So our view is it's a really nice runway that benefits more significantly in 2024, but then also gives us upside in 2025 and beyond.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. Got it. And just on price, I mean, the traction continues to be very strong there. Was Q1 in line with your Q1 expectation? Or did that realization come in a little bit better? I'm just curious if there might be a little upward tension on that 5% assumption for the full year.
Bob Fishman:
It was a little bit better than we expected. We always knew that Q1 would be our better price quarter and that it would slowly come down throughout the year. But we have seen less discounting than we thought. So we're certainly comfortable with pricing and had a little bit of upside in the first quarter.
Brett Linzey:
All right, got it. Great quarter. Thanks.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
I am just focusing on the overall pool market for a second. Can you possibly quantify how much weather impacted your pool equipment business in the quarter? And are you still thinking normalization of pool markets occurs, end of Q2 or Q3? And I think you've been focused on attempting to take share back this year as supply chains have improved in pool? Have you been able to do that?
Bob Fishman:
So to start the question, it was a couple of points relating to weather in Q1. So it did cause us to come in slightly lower than what we thought. We – our belief is still that we are back to normal inventory levels by the end of the pool season, which will be the third quarter. So that continues to be our assumption there. Third part of your question, Andy, was what?
Andy Kaplowitz:
Share. As supply chains have gotten better, have you been able to sort of get more equipment into the market and take some share?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean we're excited about the new product offerings, as I mentioned, and getting the industry and the market again focused on those new products. I think when everybody is busy and things are active, you just kind of want to put in more of the products that you know very well. So we've been very actively training the dealer channels on the new IF3 Pump, as I mentioned in my comments, which was really the first product that has the Internet capability and WiFi and Bluetooth built into the pump itself, which allows us for some basic features that can be run without the full automation pad. The second one that we launched is – we're excited about our new IntelliCenter and the improvement in the IntelliCenter app, which we've been able to, again, get the channel excited about. And then the third element that we still have coming is a new filtration capability both for safety and clarity of space. So I think if we talk about winning, it's going to come from new products and having, again, the most innovative products for the channel and getting the channel excited to be partnered with Pentair to bring those to the consumers.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And then, John, your CapEx businesses, such as industrial solutions, continues to look strong. Can you talk about the durability of the CapEx cycle? What are your conversations like with customers at this point across that IFT segment?
John Stauch:
Yes. I'm extremely impressed with the IFT team both under Jerome's leadership when he was there and the way that De'Mon has continued to lead it. Our business leaders know that what we want is predictable growth and growth that comes both profitable on the project element but also brings with it the aftermarket and services component. So we've limited the growth opportunity to those projects that we feel like we can bring forward at a positive margin for Pentair and also then bring on those future businesses. So I think we feel good about the engagements we have with the customer space, the investments that are happening and the solutions we're providing, which again are taking waste to value. So, in most cases, these projects are bringing value to our end customers while they are investing in it. So, we're keeping an eye on it. You would expect higher interest rates to slow that industrial investment. But right now, from what we can see, the pipeline remains strong.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Appreciate the color, nice quarter guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks for taking my questions. Just kind of building a little bit on Pool. You talked about inventory normalizing after the Pool season. So if you could just update on how you're thinking about the early buy potential as we get into 4Q and what that should look like as we get into 2024? Thanks.
Bob Fishman:
We expect early buy to return to normalized levels. It was roughly at normalized levels as we closed out 2022. So no significant difference there. Again, as we said, from our perspective, the inventory correction should be done by the end of the Pool season, and then we can return to more normalized growth.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks. And when you talk about the demand normalizing for 2024, I know it's really early, but any color on how we should think about new pool construction versus aftermarket if we are entering a weaker macro environment? And then how are you thinking about price increases, does that normalize after the recent high levels we've seen?
Bob Fishman:
From a new pool construction perspective, we mentioned that we assume that new pools would be down in that kind of 25% to 30% range. So, again, think of new pool construction around that 80,000 mark back in 2018, and 2019, and 2021 declined to around 115,000; 2022, about 100,000 new pools; and this year, we're estimating kind of in that 70,000 to 75,000 range. Our view is that a lot of this is predicated on interest rates and the macroeconomic environment, but we do expect growth in new pools next year, more normalized demand across the aftermarket, really the inventory correction done. So, when you think about 2024, you are looking at normalized growth against 2023 that has significant headwinds. So, we are optimistic that as we turn the corner here in 2023, we have a positive story for Pool. And just as a reminder, we had started the year saying that Pool would be down low double digits. We did change that assumption to down low mid-teens. And if you think about that, we are absorbing about $100 million more of a headwind than what we thought at the beginning of the year. So, if you take the low end of double digit down and you take the high end of mid-teens, there is $100 million that we think will work its way through this year, again, setting ourselves up for a better 2024. And that, again, is one of the reasons why we were pleased to bring up the midpoint of our guidance this year that even with that headwind we were able to increase with the strength of IFT, Manitowoc Ice and the great start to the year.
Saree Boroditsky:
I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Follow-up on Manitowoc Ice to start with, Bob, you talked about them working down backlog in the quarter. Can you quantify kind of that increasing sales from 75 to 95, how much of that was burning off backlog? And are we going to be talking about a difficult comp there next year with that backlog reduction contributing to the performance in the first quarter?
Bob Fishman:
A piece was backlog, Nathan, I don't have the split between what was backlog. As we mentioned last year, backlog has been strong in Manitowoc Ice at the – since we acquired the business in July. But overall, our view is to go-to-market not only with Manitowoc Ice but with commercial filtration and services. And historically, this business has been a very consistent grower. So our view is Manitowoc Ice will continue to perform well.
John Stauch:
Yes. Nate, and if you look at order rates, our order rates there continue to be strong in the space. I don't think we would believe that our normal organic growth rates in the ice business will maintain at these levels. But right now, the visibility would suggest that getting back to being able to ship at the same order rates is where we're at today, and we'll begin to work that backlog down as we exit the year.
Nathan Jones:
Thank, that's helpful. And then maybe a broad one across the portfolio. We've talked a fair bit about lead times coming down across a lot of your businesses. Are there businesses that still have lead times that are longer than where they were before COVID 2019 kind of timeframe? Are you back to more normalized lead times across all the businesses? You're going to see normalization of order rates, normalization of inventory levels, and we should be basically done talking about this stuff by the end of the year?
John Stauch :
In the majority of our businesses across the majority of the high-running SKUs, we're back to normalized lead times. We still have a few specialized products and SKUs, but those are becoming fewer and fewer quarter-by-quarter.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks for the color.
John Stauch :
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst :
Hey everyone. This is Miguel on for Brian. I just had one question, maybe high level. For the – for your commercial end markets, have you seen any concerns out there on financing just given everything going on with the banking sector? I guess, what are you seeing in real time there, if anything at all? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, I think, we're all expecting it. We don't have a huge commercial building offering. We generally provide the fire pumps and then the aftermarket service pumps into that space. And then we do have some pumps that connect the building of commercials back into the city water aspects. And yes, I think, we're anticipating that higher interest rates will put pressure on those buildings and the REITs that own them and the challenges in that space. But it's going to be a modest impact to Pentair just because of the size of the business offering we have there.
Unidentified Analyst :
Okay, fair enough. Thanks a lot. I’ll pass it on.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hi guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Hi Steve how are you?
Bob Fishman:
Hi Steve.
Steve Tusa:
On the IFT growth, I know you guys went through it a little bit. I might have missed it at the beginning of the call, but the commercial and industrial solutions up mid-teens. Any more like any deeper color you can give on like the types of end markets that were driving the growth there and why that was so strong?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I mean, first of all, relative size, this business has been really focused. We're talking about those two markets, Steve, being roughly around 300 and some change on an annualized basis for us, so just to frame what the teens growth would be. And I think these are projects that we won primarily to our focus around the aftermarket, the services. And again, as I mentioned, we're into larger irrigation, we're into industrial wastewater, and we're also into commercial buildings. That would be the end markets.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And those were – I think that was stronger than you guys had expected in the quarter? Is that right?
John Stauch:
Well, I think it's probably in line with our expectations, but it's stronger than historical averages. Correct.
Steve Tusa:
Right, okay. And then as far as the behavior of your customers on the Pool side, any color seasonally on how you would expect 3Q and 4Q to play out EPS-wise? And you've given us the 2Q guide, but the third and the fourth quarter, anything to note kind of seasonally there? I guess this goes to kind of like the pre-buy question in the fourth quarter?
Bob Fishman:
No doubt that that pool will face down 16%. They will be down a little more than that in Q2 and Q3 and then should be turning the corner in the fourth quarter. So, from an EPS perspective, we think Q3 will probably be the most challenging quarter, and then Q4 EPS will improve as a lot of these transformation initiatives kick in and then Pool starts to improve.
Steve Tusa:
One more…
John Stauch:
Steve, we don't anticipate that there is hardly any dealer inventory out in the channel anymore. And obviously, the financing that they are paying, they are working more of their jobs in the sense of how do they bill and pay in the same cycle. And so the inventory we are referring to is the channel inventory distributors. And based upon feedback and conversations, everybody is aligned to try and burn all that inventory by the end of Q3, which would mean for us, our normalized Q2 will be a lot lower than normal. And then we'd expect that to be gone and behind us by the end of Q3, meaning we're growing sequentially from Q3 to Q4 for Pool and then continue to grow from there as we head through 2024.
Steve Tusa:
One more question. When it comes to pricing, are you approaching this year any differently than you have in the past? And is there – like what's the exit rate on your price capture into next year? Should we assume that that's a normal price capture? Or is there – are there signs that with the downturn that people are getting maybe aggressive in pockets?
John Stauch:
I think we would be going back to really normal areas, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Which is what, like a couple of percent?
John Stauch:
Low single digits, like more normalized based upon – I mean way too early to call it, but I mean, your general assumptions are making sure that you're selling the value, that you're going out and you're pricing effectively and you're being able to handle any fluctuations in commodity or labor wages.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, okay. Great. Thanks for the color as always.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Graham with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Hey good morning all. Thank you for taking my question. I was – just on Slide 20, where you break down the Pool view for the year. So the new remodel went from 20% to down 25%. How much of that was the first quarter weather was there, I mean, how much of this is sort of rest of the year versus what's already happened?
Bob Fishman:
It really wasn't weather-related as much as it was just the economic uncertainty, the higher interest rates. So that was our assumption was that by bringing new and remodel down 5%, it was more related to that.
John Stauch:
Yes. And then, Scott, it's Q2 and Q3 and Q4, not Q1. I mean, Q1 related to the West weather, but most of all this adjustment is in Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Scott Graham:
Okay. Got it. Makes sense. And to the same end, well not the same, the aftermarket inventory. Last quarter, you were kind enough to sort of parse that out between impacts of aftermarket versus inventory. Could you give some color on that this time?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. Our view is the mix of that, so the down 20% is roughly two-thirds relating to the inventory correction and a third relating to the aftermarket or items that were bought in advance over the last couple of years, so think heaters, lighting, those types of products.
Scott Graham:
Yes. Got it. Thank you. And last question is kind of going back to the commercial water. We've kind of had some fits and starts in that business with varying distribution plans and different channels and what have you. Could you kind of tell us, what is Manitowoc Ice doing for you in commercial? I know you have, you sort of lined up that in Everpure when you first bought this, but we're now kind of into this thing. What are you guys doing in the market right now to really leverage the three pieces of this business?
John Stauch:
Yes. I appreciate the question. I mean, first of all I'd say the fits and starts are more on the residential side. Global business and always experimenting or trying to think about how to go to market differently. We're now convinced that just accepting where we are with our pro channel, partner with their pro channel, drive leads to pro channel, that's our strategy in residential, and that's going to be consistent as we go forward. On the commercial side, we've always had a strong offering with our filtration products in Everpure and the RO systems that we sell into our commercial customers. What Manitowoc brings is added strength and capability across a wider selection of customers. And ultimately, we're able to discuss the end-to-end solutions that really drive productivity and value to our core OEM customers. So very excited and very pleased with the progress. And as a reminder, I mean, we're using the Manitowoc team to run that combined business. And we've integrated all those go-to-market strategies under one leadership team, and I believe that that's going to drive sustained value for our customers.
Scott Graham:
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
The next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Deane.
Bob Fishman:
Hi Deane.
Deane Dray:
Just a couple of cleanup questions here. Just a follow-up on the banking turmoil question, you answered it with regard to commercial construction. Interested in hearing if there's any sort of impact on the Pool side or consumer water side, maybe dealer financing. Some customers finance a pool construction with a personal loan. Just is there anything at the margin that you would call out there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think it's going to vary by geography and demographics. I think all of us that serve the channel, Deane, believe that there is some economic turmoil that could come from these current interest rates and the impact it has on varying degrees of consumers and buyers. And I think that's in Bob's expectation of the lower new Pool sales. Also, I think we're going to see it slightly impacting the remodeling space as well because a lot of those remodel pools might have used some form of home equity or some type of borrowing to do it. I think the bigger uncertainty is what happens to where interest rates are and when they settle out. So we're hopeful that we get clarity as we exit this year and people can predict what the longer-term interest rates will be.
Deane Dray:
Yes. That's really helpful. That's the way we've been thinking about it. And just to clarify on the Pool outlook, a year ago or so we were talking about how you were supply constrained on the number of construction capacity. Where does that stand? Is it – are they able to fill all the demand? Is the supply of labor at all part of this equation?
John Stauch:
Yes. We believe that they'll be at the more normalized areas. I mean, I think they're finishing up the backlog that they had that was pre-bought and they're out then probably trying to sell the remodeled pools and the upgrades on the pool equipment, which will bring us back into more, what I call normal pattern of how our dealer channel works to provide value for us and our consumers.
Deane Dray:
Great. And just last one for me, for Bob. Gross margin was significantly above our expectations. I know that's a high-quality problem to have to answer. But if you could just take us through what the impact was, maybe – is there a carryover pricing? Just how do you give color there, please?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. I couldn't have been more pleased with the margin expansion. From our perspective, it was a number of different drivers that should drive sustainable margin expansion in the future. So to the earlier point made, we did a much better job of removing the inefficiencies that existed last year. So think about logistics, think about air freight, think about even spot buy on electronics, all getting better in the first quarter. Again, our price read out better than expected because we didn't have to do the discounting that we had perhaps put in as an assumption but felt good about how pricing read out from the carryover activities that we had done. The accretive nature of Manitowoc; and then finally, just the transformation initiatives, including rightsizing to those lower volumes in pool. Those are all things that we got significantly better at in Q1 and should be sustainable as we go forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to look at the sort of the EBIT bridge assumptions that you've got laid out. Just trying to understand, when I'm looking at that first quarter on Slide 13, you've got that sort of close to $60 million headwind for the year from inflation, the productivity tailwind very narrow in the quarter at $6 million. As you look at the year as a whole, how are you thinking about those two pieces, inflation and productivity, kind of as we go through the year? Does inflation narrow as a headwind steadily and productivity move up steadily? Sort of anything you could flesh out on those two pieces, please?
John Stauch:
I think you nailed it. I think our year-over-year price contribution starts to anniversary some of the price increases we've put in midyear and three quarters away through last year. And you got it; we continue to see productivity sequentially getting better. And we think inflation starts to slide off here as it wraps around on year-over-year headwinds that it compares to.
Julian Mitchell:
And then just my quick follow-up. The pool market, I realized there's been about 82 questions on it, but just your revenue guide down mid-teens for the year, it's not that different from kind of what you did in Q1 year-on-year. So just trying to understand sort of the year-on-year cadence, like what's the kind of exit rate in Q4 – the Q4 sort of sales decline rates, assuming that you have succeeded in getting those inventories back to normal by the beginning of Q4? Because I noticed that in, say, the water piece residential there, you're down 25% in Q1. The year has guided only down 10%, so we can kind of understand the steep rate of narrowing declines through the year and makes sense given the comps and everything else. Just want to understand in Pool how we think about that down mid-teens off the kind of down mid-teens in Q1 already?
John Stauch:
Yes. Think about the biggest impact to Q2 and Q3 just being the inventory headwinds that we're experiencing. We'll still run up in Q4 of last year, some of the year-over-year challenges with early buy but will generally be slightly positive. And we'd expect to then have the tailwind of not having that inventory burn as we head into 2024.
Operator:
The last question comes from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano:
So on IFT, I mean, obviously what's going on there is interesting in a macro uncertain environment to have the margin expansion that you can have here. But it's been exclusively driven by on the top line by price like three quarters now. So as we get into a different type of market eventually where we want to see the growth side, how do you position that portfolio to be able to capitalize on like an up-cycle rather than right now capitalizing on like a flat down-cycle?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean real quickly. I mean there's several revenue streams in IFT. And we've got our focus on the ones that are higher value. And yes, to your point we're being very critical to what projects we take on, which ones we don't. And as we start to work with our customers, I do think you'll be able to see this business produce on a regular basis low-single digits, in line with our expectations with more of that being value and less being a price contribution.
Joe Giordano:
Fair enough. And then we've kind of danced around this, but like in Pool in the fourth quarter possible that, that's up, right, organically?
Bob Fishman:
It's possible. Our view, roughly flat to up slightly would be our view now after that inventory correction makes its way through in Q2 and Q3.
Joe Giordano:
Yes. That’s all I had. Thanks guys.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
John Stauch:
All right. Well, thank you for joining us. We know this is a busy earnings day. I just want to reiterate our earnings call key themes in case some missed part of our call. First, our diversified portfolio and transformation initiatives drove Q1 sales growth with margin expansion across all three segments. Second, we expect strength in our Water Solutions and IFT segments as well as transformation efficiencies to drive upside. Third, we raised the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guide due to Q1's strong start as well as our confidence in the sustainability of our performance, while acknowledging that we expect Pool to be softer than we had initially expected. Fourth, our transformation initiatives are expected to drive greater benefits later in full year 2023 and beyond, and we implement actions towards identified savings. And we expect to continue to deliver value creation beyond this 2023 fiscal year. Thank you, everyone, and enjoy your day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Pentair Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you, Kate, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter and full year performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today's release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up, then re-enter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with Slide 4, titled Executive Summary. We closed out 2022 with strong sales, segment income and adjusted EPS, which is a direct result of the hard work and dedication of our focused employees across the world. Sales increased 9% to $4.1 billion; segment income rose 12% to $768 million; ROS expanded by 40 basis points to 18.6%; and adjusted EPS increased 8% to $3.68. A few of our key wins during the year include
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9, labeled Q4 2022 Pentair Performance. I will also be discussing our full year performance on Slide 10. We delivered fourth quarter sales growth of 1% with core sales declining 3% as strong price contribution was not enough to offset volume decline. Consumer Solutions core sales were down 11%, as expected and previously communicated, due to residential channel inventory levels rebalancing and as a result of our lead times beginning to return to more normal levels. Industrial & Flow Technologies reported strong 11% core sales growth with strength in commercial flow and industrial solutions. For the full year, sales grew 9% with core sales up 6%. Consumer Solutions delivered 4% core sales growth, and Industrial & Flow Technologies saw core sales growth of 10%. Fourth quarter segment income increased 10%, and return on sales expanded 130 basis points year-over-year to 18.2%, driven primarily by price, significantly offsetting inflation. Productivity was negatively impacted by lower volume in the quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.82 was down 6% versus the prior year, but exceeded our guidance for the quarter. Net interest and other expense was $28.2 million, which represented our first full quarter of new financing post the Manitowoc acquisition. And our adjusted tax rate was 12.7% during the quarter, with a share count of 165.2 million. For the full year, segment income grew 12% and return on sales expanded 40 basis points to 18.6%. Adjusted EPS increased 8% for the year to $3.68. Our tax rate ended the year at 14.5%, and our share count was 165.6 million. Please turn to Slide 11, labeled Q4 2022 Consumer Solutions Performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for Consumer Solutions, I will also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 12. In the fourth quarter, Consumer Solutions sales declined 1% with core sales declining 11%, comprised of 15 points of price, offset by 26 points of volume decline. This was in line with our expectations. The volume decline was due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and the anticipated inventory correction across many product lines in our residential channels. Segment income grew 7%, and return on sales expanded 150 basis points to 23.1%, as strong pricing measures continued to play out along with the contribution from Manitowoc Ice. For the year, Consumer Solutions sales grew 12% with core sales up 4%. Segment income grew 10%, and return on sales declined 40 basis points to 23.3%. Our pool business had sales growth of 4% for the year. Water treatment saw sales growth of 28%, led by contribution from the Manitowoc Ice acquisition, which was completed at the end of July. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Q4 2022 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for Industrial & Flow Technologies, I will also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 14. Industrial & Flow Technologies grew sales 5% in the quarter, partially offset by a 4% FX headwind with core sales increasing 11%. Segment income grew 21%, and return on sales expanded an impressive 240 basis points to 17.4%, marking the second consecutive quarter of greater than 200 basis points of improvement. The strong margin expansion was a result of significant price contribution and moderating inflation. For the year, sales increased 6% with core sales increasing 10%. Segment income grew 14%, and return on sales increased 110 basis points to 16.1%, as strong price more than offset inflation and FX headwinds. IFT saw sales growth across the segment with residential flow up 3%, commercial flow up 6% and industrial solutions up 10%. Please turn to Slide 15, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. As a reminder, this slide reflects the closing of the Manitowoc acquisition at the end of July. We ended the quarter with pro forma a leverage of 2.5 times, and our return on invested capital was at 15.7%, declining slightly due to the acquisition of Manitowoc Ice. I would like to remind you that given the rising interest rate environment, we are comfortable being two-thirds variable as we were less inclined to lock into higher rates for longer. We have no significant long-term debt maturing for the next few years and the majority of our debt is in term loans going out three to five years. We generated $283 million of free cash flow from continuing operations in the year, which was in line with our messaging on the Q3 earnings call. Working capital was a significant headwind this year, primarily inventories, which has led to a timing issue on cash flow. Our inventories were higher largely due to inflation, [buy-ahead] (ph) and inefficiencies in the supply chain. We expect to benefit from working capital improvement in 2023 and generate free cash flow in line with our historical performance of 100% of net income. In 2022, we returned roughly two-thirds of our free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital, and we'll continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment. Please turn to Slide 16, labeled Segment Structure Beginning in 2023. As John discussed, we moved to three reporting segments effective January 01, 2023. We have included realigned historical information for these segments from 2019 to 2022 in the supplemental data section of our earnings presentation. Our Industrial & Flow Technologies segment had roughly $1.5 billion of revenue in 2022 with a ROS of approximately 16%. This business grows sales at roughly single digits over the long term in a very large industry. Water Solutions consists of residential and commercial and was roughly $1.2 billion of revenue on a pro forma basis when including a full year of Manitowoc Ice. This is a mid-single digit sales growth contributor over the long term, operating in a very large industry. Finally, Pool was roughly $1.6 billion of revenue in 2022 and is our highest profitability segment that we expect will grow sales mid-single digit plus over the long term. Please turn to Slide 17, labeled Transformation Expectations. We have moved transformation from funnel to execution, and we expect more material benefits to contribute to our longer-term margin expansion targets. In 2022, we made strategic progress on our transformation initiatives with a primary focus on two of our four key themes
Operator:
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Joe Giordano of Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano:
Hey guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Giordano:
Maybe, I'm going to start [not] (ph) on Pool. Can you talk about the residential portfolio that you have within the old Consumer Solutions group? You made a couple of acquisitions over the years, Pelican, Aquion and Rocean, and small deals, but now we're talking about some exits that you're making. So, maybe just give us an update on where that portfolio is? Where is it maybe versus what you thought it might look like when you started making those deals? And kind of like an update on the strategy going forward from there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, first of all, I think about it as roughly still 40% of the overall Water Solutions segment. And think of all the core that we were focused on for the last five to ten years, which is really about the trade and the professional channel, all being a big part of our strategy and still performing. What we did exit was our attempts at the direct-to-consumer side of the business, which we felt were not going to gain the traction that we originally hoped they would, but also they were confusing the trade channel as far as our partnership to support them. And so, now we're focused on being back to where we were, which is pulling demand through our professional trade channel and ensuring that we're winning with the best products and solutions, Joe.
Joe Giordano:
That makes sense. And then just a follow-up on the 2025 margin target. Can you maybe walk us through the relative contributions from the three segments? Like, I guess, Pool doesn't have as much upside given how strong it's been, but if you could kind of help us frame that up?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. Joe, we were pleased to be able to increase the ROS expansion due to the -- what we're seeing in the transformation initiatives. We still have work to do to break it out by segment, but overall, we would expect each of the segments to be contributors to that ROS expansion.
John Stauch:
And so, when you think of the increase in the target, as Bob mentioned, 100 basis points of that comes from candidly the fact that we're mixing up with the Manitowoc acquisition. And then we felt like stepping up the expectations on the transformation was helpful for two reasons. One is, we believe that we're making progress with the actual work we're doing. But the second one is we have inefficiencies that we uncovered over the last couple of years of being challenged by the supply chain, which we want to make sure are included in the transformation journey that we're on.
Bob Fishman:
And just to bridge the gap, when we had our Investor Day, we talked about going from 18% to 21% in 2025. We then acquired Manitowoc. So that gave us another approximately 100 basis points to bring us to 22%, and then we found another 100 basis points in the transformation initiatives to get us to the 23%.
Operator:
The next question is from Bryan Blair of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Bryan Blair:
Thank you. Good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bryan Blair:
Just to confirm, your 2023 guidance implies mid-single digit core growth in commercial water solutions. Is that correct?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. Yes, it does.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. And having owned Manitowoc Ice bit longer, any update you can offer on the commercial synergies that you've seen to date or what's expected between Everpure, Manitowoc and KBI?
John Stauch:
Yes, we're really pleased with the start. I think these all come together nicely and I think we continue to see significant opportunities for our customers to benefit from the end-to-end solutions that we now provide in commercial water solutions.
Bob Fishman:
And just to provide a little more detail, the Water Solutions does have commercial [up] (ph) approximately 40%, residential down approximately 10%.
John Stauch:
Right. He was asking for core though, and I was giving the core of mid-single digits.
Bob Fishman:
Got it.
Operator:
The next question is from Mike Halloran of Baird. Please go ahead.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, good morning, everyone. First, a follow-up to Joe's second question. Just what kind of volume assumptions are embedded in those margin targets, if any? Or are those exclusive volume expectations over the next few years? In other words, is there a level of revenue or volumes you need to get to be able to achieve these targets?
John Stauch:
Well, I mean, we're making significant impact in 2023 even with the down volume. So, I think the jumpstart in 2023 reflects the aggressive efforts to get the labor in line with the volume and also to recover those inefficiencies. As we go forward, we'd be looking at the normalized growth rates of each of the segments being included in our efforts to get to the ROS targets that we implied.
Mike Halloran:
Okay. That makes sense. And then, just from a guidance perspective, could you help with the cadencing a little bit through the year. When you think about normal seasonality and there's a lot of moving pieces particularly in Pools, some of the destocking, how are you guys thinking about what the normal seasonal cadence looks like by segment within the guidance?
Bob Fishman:
We are starting to move back to a more typical seasonality where Q2 is typically our largest quarter followed by Q3. I would say that we expect to see slightly less than 50% of our EPS in the first half, primarily because interest expense is a little bit higher in the first half and transformation initiatives play out a little bit more strongly in the back half. But we are returning to more traditional seasonality than what we saw during the COVID years.
John Stauch:
And I would just add that you should assume that most of the residential channel challenges will come through Q1, Q2 and Q3, and we have easier comparisons in the back half of the year as we look at what those year-over-year impacts would be.
Operator:
The next question is from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to understand your sort of conviction level around the price tailwinds. You had 5 points of price dialed in for this year after sort of low teens ending last year. So, maybe sort of give some more color on the price confidence and how you see the sort of needed inventory liquidation in a lot of pool products perhaps weighing on that?
John Stauch:
Yes. So, I'll start and then Bob can bring some more in. I think first of all, the price that we're anticipating is actions that have already been taken. And we feel good about the decisions we've made and we feel like we have, as we said, stickiness in the channel. I do think it's fair to assume that as we get through the year, we have to anticipate that there might be ideas from the channel to participate in rebates or discounts. We've assumed a little of that in our guide. But we're hopeful that our balanced view of the revenue projections that we have don't encourage us to think that we need to do significant discounting to achieve our expectations.
Julian Mitchell:
And you're seeing sort of competitors acting in a disciplined fashion to -- for the time being?
John Stauch:
I don't know about that. I mean, we don't have any information to the contrary.
Operator:
The next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Appreciate all the detail in the presentation this morning. I'm going to ask about Pool. You talked about in the prepared comments Bob, 2019 through 2023 double-digit growth in Pool, [indiscernible] what's in the guidance for '23. I think historically that had been more like 7% or 8%. Can you talk about what was price versus volume in that? How much higher was price than you would normally have? I'm just trying to get an idea in a sense of, are we kind of back to a normalized volume growth? If you take that period from '19 to '23 where we pulled forward demand early, we're giving some [backing] (ph) and now are we kind of back to that normal trend line?
John Stauch:
We think if you looked at it, Nathan, on a sell-through basis, we'll be normalized from a volume from a sell-through basis. Obviously, we got a little disconnected on the sell-in versus the sell-out. But overall, we believe we're tracking to historical volume levels with where we end up. So, you should assume that we've had a significant price benefit over the last four years that we've realized.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. That makes sense. So, on a volume level, we're back to normalized. That's good to know. With the change in the reporting structure, is there a change in the way you're managing any of those businesses? And if so, how do you think that benefits the customer experience of buying to Pentair? Just any color you can give us on the change in reporting strategy if there's a change in the actual business management structure?
John Stauch:
Yes. We've committed a lot of effort and resources to run at what we call the category level, which is the products that go to the market and serve the customer streams. So that's our focus. And the new segment line-up allows us to be aligned. Pool for pool, and then, we've been able to split the Water Solutions businesses to the residential and commercial where we have the varying go-to-market channels, and IFT remain the same. So, we feel really good about our customer-centric efforts both on sales, marketing and NPI. And we're very encouraged on how the new segments will help enable the focus on the growth journeys of these three different areas.
Operator:
The next question is from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brian Lee:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.
John Stauch:
Hi, Brian.
Brian Lee:
Maybe just shifting -- hey, back to the margin outlook here. I appreciate the update of you through '25. I guess just sort of drilling into '23 a bit here, you mentioned the 100 basis points from the Manitowoc. When I look at just Slide 19, can you kind of give us a sense of if that's your sort of entire transformation contribution in '23? Or maybe just walk us through some of the pieces, including how much of that 100 basis points from Manitowoc is embedded in the '23?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, let me do that. I would say roughly 50 basis points to 60 basis points comes from Manitowoc of that 160 basis point increase. So, the way that you should think about Manitowoc is we had roughly $150 million of revenue in our P&L in 2022; $60 million in Q3, $90 million in Q4. And as we mentioned before, we drive about 30% of Ross on that Manitowoc business. We'll increase to about $370 million of revenue in 2023. So, think of revenue going up about $220 million in Manitowoc at that 30% income level. We also get by exiting the residential businesses, we'll lose about $25 million of revenue in 2023, but we'll gain about $10 million of income, those were loss making businesses in 2022. So, when I talked about acquisitions and divestitures benefiting about 5% top-line and roughly 35% from a ROS perspective, that was the breakout.
Brian Lee:
Okay. That's great. Appreciate that color. And then, just a quick question on the Pool side. I don't know if you quantified this, but you're talking about the channel inventory sort of coming down maybe normalizing in the 2Q-3Q timeframe. Can you quantify sort of where you see inventory levels sort of weeks and then -- or I guess months and where you would need to get to sort of get a normalized level?
John Stauch:
Yes, I'm looking at it slightly different than that. I think we've shared with you that we think we're down about 20% each on new pool builds and also the aftermarket remodeled side. So, think of that as each of those two 20% is down 20%. And then, we group the aftermarket and the inventory piece, and we assume that what we're going to see is lower pull-through from the sell-through and demand, because as Bob mentioned, we think some of the aftermarket demand was serviced earlier. And because of that, we feel like we got to balance the shipments into the channel and the industry to serve that lower demand. And most of that we think happens over Q1, Q2 and Q3.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Tusa of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey, Steve.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Just the inflation number, I'm not sure if you said that so far, what's the actual number? I mean, you could kind of eyeball the chart there, but just curious what the actual inflation headwind is for '23?
Bob Fishman:
It'd be about 4.5% is how we view it at this point.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So, on absolute basis, what does that kind of convert to?
Bob Fishman:
Well, if you think about prices being about 5%, so call that, $200 million benefit, I think about inflation at 4.5% is being around $180 million.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So, moderately positive. When you think about the pricing in the other businesses, anything going on there? Any kind of surcharges? Or anything moving around in the non, I guess, the more industrial businesses?
John Stauch:
No, real surcharges, Steve. We're back to more normalized price actions and having to go out and compete competitively from a standpoint of making sure that quoting those jobs by anticipating the impact of inflation, and then winning [the future] (ph) sourcing inflation as we satisfy the industrial projects.
Operator:
The next question is from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Hi, Andy.
Andy Kaplowitz:
So, supply chain inflation, obviously, looked better in Consumer Solutions in Q4, but I think you mentioned productivity was negative because of a decline in revenue. I know you said you expect inefficiencies to lessen as you go into '23. So, just sort of what that happened in Q4 was just lower revenue, and do you still see that sort of $50 million of incremental improvement for manufacturing inefficiency getting better in '23 versus '22?
John Stauch:
We do. Go ahead, Bob.
Bob Fishman:
Absolutely. So, the significantly lower volume in Q4, while we put actions in place, that's what primarily drove the negative productivity. As we look at 2023, those inefficiencies whether it was air freighting, spot buys, whether it was supply chain challenges, those will reduce significantly and, obviously, help our productivity. Those will be one area. Then, just the actions we took in Q4 around adjusting for the lower volume will benefit us. And then, in addition to that, the transformation initiatives that are starting to benefit us in 2023.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Very helpful. And then, Bob, maybe the conviction level to get back to free cash flow conversion of 100%? And if you do get there, obviously, you've got some leverage here, but we've seen more recent announcements of a little bit of consolidation in, call it, the water equipment space. So, where does Pentair go from here on the M&A front?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, I'll definitely take the first one. We have high confidence in our free cash flow. We will benefit from working capital coming down in 2023, primarily inventories. We've established targets and are starting to chart progress. So, I'm confident around the inventory space. We'll also see benefits versus 2022 in terms of accruals and cash being paid out. So, overall, there's three or four different areas that give us confidence in the free cash flow. Historically, we do drive a 100% of net income. And when we've had a challenging year, we turn around the next year and get back to our typical path. So, high confidence there.
John Stauch:
Yes. And as far as the M&A, I mean, short term, we're going to service the debt just because of the high interest rates. We love our strategy. We believe the move and proven enjoy gives us a lot of flexibility to add to our existing portfolio. But we're going to be smart. I mean, call me old fashioned, but I think ROIC matters in the long run. It used to be how we measured performance. I still think it matters and I think we have to be disciplined with your capital. And we need to make sure if we put that capital work that we can make these acquisitions deliver to the expectations.
Operator:
The next question is from Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Shelly.
Shelly Hubbard:
Thank you.
Deane Dray:
We also, John, agree, ROIC matters.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Deane Dray:
Hey. And on Manitowoc, just can we circle back on this? One of the obvious upsides was the whole cross-sell opportunity, making sure every one of those ice machines has a Pentair filter. Just can you share with us on the take rate there? Any initiatives that you have to make sure that that process happens smoothly?
John Stauch:
Yes. Deane, first of all, I still think we think across all the synergies we said that we're going to experience those. And we do believe, as we said, there's certainly account management and making sure that we can service the key accounts across all three platforms, KBI being one of those platforms as well on the service side. We do believe that every ice machine should have a filter and we would hope that it's our filter since we think we are the best filtration company. But that has been [independent] (ph) choice, of course, made by the distributor and the end market. And I think we can help them be aware of why our filters do better and we do believe that take rate is going to be serviced over time.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then, for Bob, the idea here is you've got this whole working capital normalization happening. Wouldn't it be fair to expect that cash conversion would be well above 100% at some point in '23, just given the kind of cash conversion that you'd expect from working capital alone?
Bob Fishman:
We've looked at the free cash flow and certainly don't want to get ahead of ourselves. One of the pacing items is the transformation piece. So, we expect to spend less on transformation and restructuring in 2023 than we did in '22, but we still have to invest to drive the benefit. So, those will be good payback items that we spend the money on, but that is one of the items that contains the free cash flow slightly. The only other thing I want to mention on your first question relating to scorekeeping for Manitowoc is that as we drive synergies, it's all within commercial water solutions, but some of the benefits goes to commercial filtration as they sell filters, some of it goes to our Ken's Beverage as they drive more services relating to the ice machine. So, all of the synergies are not necessarily captured in just Manitowoc Ice.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Jeff.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
Just on -- just back on Pool and the destocking, I'm just wondering, one, kind of how you think of inventories on your balance sheet versus those at the distributor channel? And then, just if any early buy kind of played in any part and kind of the pacing of destocking?
John Stauch:
To the second one, and really when we think of inventories, you have -- a reminder that some of our inventories are across the entire portfolio. Our project businesses, our electronics, the tougher to get componentry is where a lot of our inventory resides, Jeff. It's not like we're sitting on finished goods inventory ready to go out. So, it's not that simple.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Just on res pool, I think you put -- around Pool, you've got 28% margins in '22. How should we think about decrementals as you go through this transition and kind of where you think those margins bottom out?
John Stauch:
We expect to drive margin improvement in 2023, Jeff. I mean, as a reminder, our volume in Pool was down roughly 30% in Q4. And that's one of the reasons we didn't get to get that leverage up. And as we take a look at 2023 when we get the costs in line and balance out against these new production levels, we do believe we're going to drive margin improvement in Pool in 2023.
Operator:
The next question is from Scott Graham of Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Hey, good morning, and welcome, Shelley. So, just to couple of questions, one on the Pool, one on the commercial water treatment. I know you said for commercial water to expect sort of a mid-single digit growth this year, I'm curious does that include Manitowoc Ice on sort of pro forma...
John Stauch:
I -- no. And I'm sorry that we weren't clear. I thought the question was what was core growth of commercial water solutions, and I said mid-single digits. Inclusive, of the acquisitions, it's much higher than that, which is on the chart as mid-teens.
Scott Graham:
Right. No, that I certainly understand.
John Stauch:
They all included.
Scott Graham:
Yes, that I certainly understand. What would you think that the growth would be in Manitowoc Ice in pro forma?
John Stauch:
Mid singles.
Scott Graham:
Okay. Thank you. The other question is around Pool. So, there's a pretty big change in your assumption. I think you were looking at, thinking, last quarter that aftermarket would be about flat, and now you're kind of looping that together with the continued destock. And I'm just curious because there are more pools in the grounds, so I would have almost thought that naturally that aftermarket might have even been up this year. So, is that essentially saying that the destock is kind of more than 100% of the decline? Or am I thinking about that right?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think it's really the result of the significant growth in '20 and '21 and first half of '22 that the industry saw. And if you think about a more normalized growth, it would suggest that key items like heaters and lighting were probably pulled into those earlier years. And that is probably challenging the aftermarket assumptions. Now all of that's great, because we're adding to content in existing pools and there will be some replacement of those products down the road. So, I think long-term trajectories are fine. We just think that some of the demand was pulled into the earlier years.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stauch, President and Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you, and thank you for joining us today. We're excited about the future Pentair and focused on creating a better world for people on the planet through smart sustainable water solutions. Our focus on driving superior shareholder value is fueled by our mission to help the world sustainably move, improve and enjoy water, life's most essential resource. Kate, you may conclude the call.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Pentair’s Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Andrea, and welcome to Pentair's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you can join us. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today's release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's Web site. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you please limit your questions to one and a follow up to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4, titled Executive Summary. We are pleased to announce that our Q3 results were strong considering near-term challenges, and were in line with our expectations. Sales growth of 9% and segment income growth of 15% included a partial quarter of our recently-completed Manitowoc Ice acquisition. ROS expanded 110 basis points, demonstrating that price and productivity offset inflation, and our adjusted EPS grew 11% to $0.99 in Q3, which included incremental debt from our acquisitions and rising interest rates. We are very excited about the addition of Ice to our portfolio and the expansion of our commercial Water Solutions platform, and the team and the integration process is off to a fast start. Bob will give more detail on our updated full year 2022 guidance later in this call. While we have modestly reduced our full year expectations due primarily to increased FX headwinds and higher interest rates, the year is generally playing out the way we thought it would after our Q2 earnings call. We are seeing the previously communicated inventory correction in most of our residential channels, which we believe the industry is now addressing as supply chain challenges begin to abate. With our updated guidance, we now expect that we will have cleared nearly $200 million of channel inventory pool by the end of the year. We are encouraged that underlying demand is still up year-over-year as evidenced by dealer and distributor sell through despite the rising interest rates within the US residential industry. I will speak in a few slides about some preliminary thoughts on 2023. But the main takeaway is that we believe we are well positioned to grow sales, segment income, margins and adjusted EPS next year. Please turn to Slide number 5, labeled Water. With everything going on and the market reacting to shorter term challenges, I wanted to take a moment to remind you that we believe Pentair is well positioned to solve some of the world's toughest water challenges in a sustainable way. Today, over 70% of Pentair's solutions support water and energy efficiency through helping to reduce water usage, reuse or recovery of water, or requiring less energy to operate or operate more efficiently. With a lot of the ongoing challenges, we believe that our solutions are needed to improve the lives of people and sustain our planning. Please turn to Slide number 6, labeled Purpose. Our purpose is important to our employees, our customers, and is growing more important to you, our shareholders. We hold ourselves to very high standards and our annual sustainability report has shown progress. We believe that further progress not only benefits the planet, but customers, employees and shareholders as well. Please turn to Slide number 7, labeled Pentair at a Glance. Given how much focus has been on our residential businesses, particularly Pool, we wanted to take a step back and remind people of the diversity of the Pentair portfolio. Our mission as a company is to help the world sustainably move, improve and enjoy water, life's most essential resource. And we do this in Residential, Commercial, Agricultural and Industrial applications. On a pro forma basis, for the full year of our Manitowoc Ice acquisition, and inclusive of our current 2022 guidance, US residential sales comprised roughly half of our revenue and the other half comes from our other served industries. I will spend the next few slides talking about our three businesses and how they help comprise the overall Pentair results. We are on track to generate over $4 billion in sales this year and we have a strong focus on profitability with our ROS in the high teens. 75 is an important number for Pentair. 75% of our products are replacement inside a large installed base that benefits from over 75,000 trade partners. We believe the large served installed base and relationships with our trade channel partners drive resiliency of revenue and create a steady funnel for continued growth as new products and technologies are introduced. We have a long, successful track record of generating cash flow and being disciplined with our capital allocation. In fact, we have increased our dividend for 46 consecutive years, and we are especially proud of our high teens ROIC, demonstrating that we have been good stewards with your invested [loans]. We believe we have a very solid foundation, and we know there is still more that we can do. Please turn to Slide 8, labeled Aligning Organization for Accelerated Success. We announced last quarter that effective January 1, 2023, we will be splitting our Consumer Solutions segment into two new segments, Pool and Water Solutions. Our Industrial & Flow Technologies segment will remain unchanged. We believe this new segment structure will help us accelerate our efforts to improve customer service, differentiate our products and drive profitability for our shareholders. Please turn to Slide number 9, labeled Pool Business. Pool is a leading in-ground equipment maker with the largest installed base in North America, primarily across the Sunbelt states. Pool is on track to generate $1.6 billion in sales this year, has return on sales in the high 20s and has generated a 10 year revenue CAGR of approximately 10%. We are preferred business partners to Pool professionals and a trusted source for all things pools. Our Pool Business helps people sustainably enjoy water by using less energy and chemicals. One of the most attractive characteristics of the pool industry in North America is serving a large installed base of approximately 5.4 million pools. The average age of these pools is approaching 25 years. The industry is roughly 60% break and fix, 20% major remodeling and 20% new pools. Over the last two years, there was undoubtedly an increase in demand for products such as heaters and cleaners that were not been deeply penetrated on the pool [bath]. People were moving to warmer climates and buying homes with a pool or wanting to build a pool. The emergence of Airbnb and Vrbo was people rent homes with pools rather than staying in hotels. Our industry leading variable speed pumps have faced supply chain disruptions that have kept us from shipping as many as the industry wants, but we are starting to catch up on these shipments as the supply chain improves. Only about half of our in-ground pools have some form of automation and we believe this is another long term opportunity for Pentair, the industry and consumers. Pool dealers continue to be constrained by the lack of available labor. While dealers may have been busier with new pools in the last two years, this has come at the expense of remodeling activity. We believe we have strong opportunities to continue to grow in key categories, particularly pumps. Our new IF3 pump was soft launched this year, as we were not able to get enough chips and drives to meet demand. The initial feedback is very positive and we believe this is an opportunity to build on our leading technology position in pool pumps. We believe the long term outlook for the pool industry remains very positive, and we are well positioned to enhance our position as a leader in North American pool equipment. Please turn to Slide 10, labeled Water Solutions business. Our Water Solutions business has undergone a transformation of its own with our acquisition of Manitowoc Ice. On a pro forma basis, Water Solution's approaching $1.2 billion in sales with return on sales of roughly 20%. The business is approximately two thirds Commercial and one third Residential. Similar to Pool, our Water Solutions business sees a large percentage of its sales growth in distribution into trusted water treatment specialists. Our Water Solutions business improves water by providing great tasting, higher quality water and ice while helping our customers use water more productively. We have discussed our commercial Water Solutions business quite a lot this year given the acquisition of Manitowoc Ice. When put together with our Everpure filtration business and our KBI services business, we have created a leading platform to provide quality water and ice to our foodservice customers. Our Residential Water Treatment business consists of components and systems. Our focus within Residential Water Treatment is reestablishing the core of components while also investing in differentiated point inventory and point of use systems. We have a strong position with our core [pro trade] specialists. We have brands such as Flex and Rainsoft that have strong recognition in their respective channels. Commercial Water Solutions was already a high margin business where the focus is on driving growth. Residential water treatment is much more on complexity reduction and margin improvement while investing in core channels. We are excited about the opportunities for the soon to be Water Solutions segment. Please turn to Slide 11, labeled Industrial & Flow Technologies segment. Industrial & Flow Technologies does not always get the same attention from investors as our other two segments but it's important to our long term strategy, as we help the world sustainably move, improve and enjoy water, our Flow business helps move water where you need it, when you need it more efficiently. While our Industrial Solutions business might not be as water focused as the rest of the portfolio, the business is focused on transforming waste into value. Our Flow business is just north of $1 billion in sales with healthy margins that are improving. Professionals represent roughly 80% of sales per flow and we have many highly recognized brands. Our deep relationships with channel partners are an important long term growth driver. Flow is roughly two thirds Residential and one third Commercial. We also serve irrigation and infrastructure on a smaller scale, which helps bring balance to the business with a combination of short cycle products and engineered products that are longer cycle. Flow has seen solid margin improvement this year, and we believe this business has a long runway ahead to drive margins even higher. Our Industrial Solutions business is roughly $500 million as a technology leader in several niches, including beer membrane filtration and sustainable gas solutions. Industrial Solutions is the one part of our portfolio that is not tied to professional trade channels, but this business provides filtration technology to help solve customers' environmental goals through smart and sustainable solutions. Similar to Flow, we believe there's a lot of opportunity for margin improvement within Industrial Solutions. Please turn to Slide 12, labeled Transformation to Enhance Value Creation. We continue to believe that transformation will be a large value creation opportunity for Pentair. We are building capabilities and training businesses and new tools to use. We are furthest along on our sourcing initiatives. We have completed wave one that is focused on key categories like electronics, motors and drives, casting and indirect. In fact, we had an early win in the quarter regarding our MNO spend where we went from over 100 different suppliers down to one. This allows us to not only save money but it also reduces complexity across our entire organization in this channel. As we institutionalize our wave one learnings, we believe this will drive future ways as we look at additional categories. On pricing, we're establishing a foundation for pricing across our different go to market strategies. This includes looking at our dealer and distributor programs to better optimize them. We're gaining insight into profitability by customer and product category and using this data to better drive our forecast. Pricing remains a big opportunity and this year has been about building capabilities and next year should start to see benefits materializing. We've made a few small strides on footprint optimization this year. We believe this presents longer term opportunities, but not until 2024 and beyond as we build out the funnel. From an organizational standpoint, there remains ample opportunities for complexity reduction across the entire portfolio and a realignment of these skills within our top priorities. Transformation has moved from funnel to execution and we expect more material benefits to contribute to our longer term margin expansion targets. We'll be providing more detail regarding specific expectations when we introduce our 2023 guidance. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Early Thoughts on 2023. While we are not yet ready to provide full guidance for 2023, we did want to share some early thoughts as we go through our internal planning process. We expect to grow revenue next year for a few reasons. First, we expect the inclusion of Manitowoc Ice will contribute significantly. Second, we expect carryover pricing from the actions we have already taken this year. And third, we believe the diversity of our portfolio will be demonstrated and create resiliency. The focus from investors feel solely on our Pool business, but we have many other contributing businesses in our portfolio. In fact, Pool has its own diversification with 60% breaking fix that we expect will likely continue to grow. While the smaller exposure to new pool construction may decline double digits and maybe there will also be softness in remodeling, we expect the 5.4 million in-ground pools in the break and fix portion of the industry will likely grow modestly. And this, along with carryover pricing, should help limit the anticipated declines from inventory correction early next year. The remainder of the Pentair portfolio has more exposure to some later cycle business, with Industrial & Flow Technologies that offers further diversification. We also expect to grow income next year. Again, we expect that Manitowoc Ice and pricing carryover will be contributors. We are also taking actions this year to better align our manufacturing costs and overhead with the lower volumes we are experiencing. We also expect productivity to return to more normalized levels as manufacturing inefficiencies abate with improved supply chain performance. Transformation is also expected to be a big contributor to income and margin performance next year. We also expect to see adjusted EPS growth with the accretion from Manitowoc Ice, overall business performance and benefits from Transformation. We expect free cash flow to return to more normalized levels or perhaps even a little better as we expect better inventory performance and supply chain inefficiencies go away, and backlogs are reduced. Overall, we believe we are positioned to grow in 2023 despite the challenges of softening economy, residential inventory and stocking challenges, and FX headwinds. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled Q3 2022 Pentair Performance. We delivered second quarter sales growth of 9% with core sales increasing 4% as strong price contribution offset anticipated volume decline. Consumer Solutions core sales were down 2% as residential channels rebalanced inventory levels as our supply chain constraints lessened and as a result of our lead times beginning to return to more normal levels. Industrial & Flow Technologies reported strong 14% core sales growth with strength across the entire segment. Segment income increased 15% and return on sales increased 110 basis points year-over-year to 19.6%. Price once again offset inflation and productivity showed some sign of improvement as manufacturing inefficiencies improved modestly as supply chain constraints eased a little in the quarter. Below the line, net interest and other expense was $18.6 million with increased debt as we closed our Manitowoc Ice acquisition earlier in the quarter. Our adjusted tax rate was 13% during the quarter as we trued up our planning for the year, with the new full year rate now expected to be 15%. Our share count was $165.2 million and adjusted EPS grew 11% to $0.99 and exceeded our guidance for the quarter. Please turn to Slide 15, labeled Q3 2022 Consumer Solutions Performance. Consumer Solutions increased sales 8% with core sales declining 2% comprised of 16 points of price, offset by an 18% decline in volume. The volume decline was due to tough year-over-year comparisons and the anticipated inventory correction across many product lines in our residential channel. Segment income grew 10% and return on sales expanded 30 basis points to 23.8%. Our Pool business had a 4% decline in sales and many product lines such as heaters, cleaners and lighting experienced a delay in orders as inventory in the channel took a pause at the end of the season. We experienced growth in pumps during the quarter as we were able to get the drive needed to fulfill demand. As we have been discussing throughout the year, we have been expecting a decline in the second half of this year as lead times for many products have returned to more normal levels and our channel partners no longer needed to place orders far in advance. Further, pool is a seasonal business and historically, the fourth and first quarters tend to be at lower levels than the second and third quarters. We believe the underlying demand for pool equipment should continue to be strong as the average age of approximately 5.4 million pools installed in the US approaches 25 years. About half of these pools have no form of automation, which we believe is also a long term driver of demand and increased content on pools. We are expecting a slowing in the next few quarters as channel inventories normalize to more historical patterns, which we expect will likely result in continued volume decline partially offset by strong pricing. Water treatment sales grew 34% in the quarter helped in large part by two months of contribution from Manitowoc Ice. Our residential business sales declined low double digits as the channel goes through an inventory correction similar to what is happening in Pool. Consumers continue to be focused on water quality and demand for the product remains strong, however channel inventory does need to return to more historical levels. Our Commercial business grew organically and benefited from the acquisition of Manitowoc Ice. Both Everpure and KBI experienced solid demand in the quarter with Everpure experiencing several new total water management contract wins. The integration of Manitowoc Ice is off to a good start and we remain very excited about the long term prospects for our commercial water solutions platform. Please turn to Slide 16, labeled Q3 2022 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies grew sales 10% in the quarter, partially offset by a 5% FX headwind, with core sales increasing 14%. Segment income grew 25% and return on sales expanded an impressive 210 basis points to 16.9%. The strong margin expansion was a result of positive mix, improved productivity and strong price contribution. Our Residential Flow business sales grew 6% in the quarter as price continued to read out oppositely, which helped to offset continued supply chain disruption. Inventory in the channel is in good shape and our focus remains on working down backlog as supply chain disruptions continue to ease. Commercial flow sales grew 13% as delayed second quarter shipments occurred and underlying demand remains solid. This business has made significant gains this year reducing complexity and has been a big contributor to the segment's margin expansion. Industrial Solutions sales increased 13% as most product lines experienced growth. Demand for our sustainable gas solutions remain strong and continue to grow in orders and backlog. Our beer business has helped many customers work on productivity solutions, given the ongoing CO2 shortage that exists. Overall, Industrial & Flow Technologies delivered a great quarter with sales, segment income and margin growth. Please turn to Slide 17, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. This line reflects the closing of the Manitowoc Ice transaction at the end of July. We ended the quarter with pro forma leverage at 2.6 times and our ROIC was at 17%. Given the rising interest rate environment, we are comfortable being two thirds variable as we were less inclined to lock into higher rates for longer. We have no long term debt maturing for the next few years and the majority of our debt is in term loans going up three to five years. Cash flow in the quarter was $72 million and $211 million year to date. Working capital has been a significant headwind this year, primarily inventory, which is leading to a timing issue on cash flow. Our inventories are higher primarily due to inflation, buy ahead and inefficiencies in the supply chain, requiring us to purchase more products. We believe we are well positioned to drive improvement in free cash flow in the fourth quarter but we expect to fall short of our target to 100% free cash flow conversion for the full year. We believe this is a timing issue and expect next year to benefit from working capital improvement as inventory levels come down. Please turn to Slide 18, labeled Q4 and Full Year 2022 Pentair Outlook. For the fourth quarter, we are introducing adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $0.79, which represents a year-over-year decrease of 9%. We expect sales to be roughly flat as the contribution of Manitowoc Ice helps offset growing FX headwinds and expected volume decline as a result of residential channel inventory correction. We expect segment income to increase 8% with corporate expense coming in around $20 million, net interest expense of roughly $28 million, an adjusted tax rate of 15% and a share count of 165 million to 166 million. With the third quarter outperformance and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we now expect full year sales to grow approximately 9% for the year. We expect segment income to increase approximately 12% with [strong] price contribution. We expect adjusted EPS of roughly $3.65 or an increase of 7% for the year. Below the line, we expect corporate expense to be around $80 million, net interest expense of $55 million, an adjusted tax rate of approximately 15% and shares to be around 165 million to 166 million. With the working capital headwinds experienced this year, we now expect free cash flow to be approximately 60% to 70% of net income with free cash flow returning to more normalized levels next year. I would now like to turn the call over to Andrea for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Andrea, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
We will now begin the question and answer question [Operator Instructions]. And our first question will come from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John or Bob, can you give us a little more color into your volume expectations for Pool in Q4, and a little more color into how you're thinking about '23 in Pool? I know you said that you baked in channel destocking in Pool in the second half of the year. But has the destocking been higher than your expectations? And then it seems like you have confidence in break and fix, but you mentioned more uncertainty regarding renovation. Have you seen a drop off in that backlog at this point?
John Stauch:
I mean, as a reminder, we did start the year saying that we expected that the supply chain constraints that were there throughout 2020 and '21 would likely, as they start to abate, identify that there's probably excess inventory in the channel. As the year played out in Q2 and after our Q2 conference call, I mean, what was happening and you can see it happening in other industries like retail, we expected that we would see a pullback again in demand and therefore, have to burn through inventory in the channel. So I would say it's playing out generally as expected, maybe a little bit higher in Q4, with a little bit higher being that the overall demand in the industry has slowed modestly. So we're not at the high to mid single digit sell through numbers that we were historically, and we're starting to see some pullback actually in the overall demand and therefore, that needs to add to the inventory correction.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And then, John, maybe backing up, could you give us a little more color into the buckets you cited that can help you provide the '23 growth that you seem confident of. I think in the past, you've talked about the Manitowoc Ice accretion being around $0.10. Maybe any sort of color on pricing carryover, or transformation and related tailwind would help, and then how much manufacturing efficiencies impacted you this year?
John Stauch:
I mean, it's really early for guide and obviously, you understand these interests. I mean, I think where our confidence level comes by growing on an absolute basis on revenue EPS is that Manitowoc is going to -- should be well over $200 million as it brings the full year performance to Pentair. And that's a fairly high margin business, so we really feel good about the income contribution. And their backlog substantiate everything we saw in the business model and we're off to a strong start in integration, so I'll start there. I don't keep low worried about Pool but we're nowhere near what we saw in '08, '09, when we saw the correction. And so when you think about how Pool Corp on their call, it's a major distributor of ours, characterized as the industry dynamics. and we look at it as 20% of the industry is new, 20% is remodeled, and we have the overall break and fix in the service to our pool business. Usually, the way those dynamics work, since our dealers are capacity constrained on labor, they'll shift their work to either building new pool or remodeling, not doing both at the same time and/or servicing the pools on a break and fix basis. So we think that that's going to -- even if you project downward trends in the industry, we think that's going to be a modest impact to Pentair. And then ultimately, we believe that we have carryover pricing as a company, and then we like the diversity of our portfolio. And we're trying to remind everybody that we're not 100% exposed to Residential. As a matter of fact, we're less than 50% exposed to Residential, and the rest of our cycles are still in growth mode. They're building orders and pipelines and backlog, and we're going to see those contributions in the next year. So that's on the revenue side. On the income side, our manufacturing inefficiencies are really more about we received product late in the quarter from our suppliers, and we have to rally and push it out to our customers. And so those inefficiencies come in the form of premium break in and less than in full truckloads on the way out, as well as a lot of overtime and extra people required to get that product out the door. So I had to quantify it, I'd say it's around $50 million. And so we're going to address all that and bring our cost in line, and we feel fairly confident that we're going to see the ROS expand next year because we're going to get back to our standard productivity levels that we were at prior to the whole COVID impact.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mike Halloran of Baird.
Mike Halloran:
So John, just a clarification on something you're saying in there. You referenced Pool Corp's commentary in the prepared remarks, talked about the splits there. Was that for Pentair specific, or was that an industry sellout thought process or the sell through versus what you're expecting for your revenue base, if that makes sense?
John Stauch:
The statistics I give on a sell through basis, we've been using for a very long period of time, and they're generally in line with what I said, like they don't change very much. It's hard to get as specific because our dealers serve all three of the channels. And as they buy product, we make assumptions based on pool permits and/or what was bought in the pool [full] pad versus maybe just a couple of products that feel more like replacement. But our dealers serve all three forms of the industry, and most of what we've been selling lately feels more pool pad oriented. And so therefore, we're convinced that there's more to go on the break and fix. And when we talk about break and fix, we're talking about putting our dealers out there to help that individual try to automate their pool. And it's hard to push that if you don't have the electronics that produce that product. And we feel like we're catching up on that and we feel like we got runway in '23 and '24 to really change that penetration rate.
Mike Halloran:
So just to clarify, I just want to make sure I understand. So the sell through piece is the 20%, that's the news was where you're going to get industry headwinds, repair, replace up a little bit, maybe flattish as per your commentary. And then the flex is in the remodel side, where we used to play out the visibility yet. And then the inventory piece would be Pentair specific as you get to the correction, so a little bit worse than those sell through numbers is what the thought process is? Correct?
John Stauch:
Yes. Mike, we feel like we're pretty good at that between what we've already done in Q3 and Q4. But as Bob alluded to in his comments, I still think there's more in Q1.
Mike Halloran:
So then on the commercial side of things, maybe just talk about the trends through the quarter here, backlog levels and what the customer base is saying? Essentially kind of getting to the confidence level and the sustainability of the solid underlying trends you're seeing on the commercial side.
John Stauch:
I mean, I think where we have the best visibility would be on the Manitowoc side. We recently acquired them but they've got a good visibility because they make a machine, and that machine takes a little longer time to make than our Everpure filtration would. And so we still see growth both in volume basis and in the backlog and order build. And then as we get to IFT, Mike, we're actually seeing accelerating orders and also building backlog, and those businesses giving us confidence that we're going to see further growth next year than the [IT] side.
Operator:
The next question comes from Joe Giordano of Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
As you mentioned, Pool Corp, but when they talked on their last quarter, their commentary on ending inventories for the fourth quarter had an enormous range, and it implied for their inventory purchases for fourth quarter like anywhere from almost minus 30% to minus 8%, so like a pretty big range. And they talked about like pre buy as well. So can you kind of talk about what you're guiding in the fourth quarter somewhat like in the context of that huge framework that they're laying out?
John Stauch:
I can't speak to theirs at all, Joe. Between Bob and I, we'll try to answer this as we can. We're only a third probably of our key distributors’ businesses because they produce a lot of other product for customers. And obviously, Pool Corp is an important customer of ours, but they're not our only customer. So when we look at inventory, we look at it broadly across the entire channel for pool equipment that we produce. If we think about pool directionally being about 30% down in volume for Q4, which is a pretty big number and therefore, pretty big dent in any inventories in the channel if volume were to be relatively flat absent that. But we're being honest in the sense that when we look at it, we see early buy needs in Q4 that our customers are going to take advantage of. And we believe that in Q1, we're going to start to have a better understanding product by product where the excess inventory is in the channel, and those also need to be looked at branch by branch and state by state. And therefore, we still think there will be a little bit further impact in Q1 as people ready themselves for the 2023 pool season, which generally ramps up in Q2.
Bob Fishman:
I would just say that our goal is to work down as much of the channel inventory this year. John talked about a $200 million number, there will be a little bit to go in Q1. But I think we're going to end this year much better positioned for 2023 by working down that channel inventory in pool. That's really our goal.
Joe Giordano:
Just to clarify, you said -- broke up a little. Did you say, John, you're talking volumes in pool of minus [30] or so in 4Q? I just didn't catch the number…
John Stauch:
Correct.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
It's very helpful, the commentary around where the pool inventory is likely to be at the end of the year. I think if you put the pieces together on your outlook for the different parts of Pool, your sell through expectations for the Pool business in '23 look like they're maybe up a little bit, maybe down a bit, and the inventory comes out mostly in 2022. Is that a fair way to characterize it? And if the pool sell through happened to be lower next year, how much longer do you think it would take to work through this channel inventory?
John Stauch:
Well, Bob, I don't know you want try this. I'm not going to comment, you've got a lot in there. I think we've already said that we do believe overall industry dynamics are down next year from a volume perspective for Pool. We just don't know how much. We do believe that builds are going to moderate on the new side. We don't know what [buyouts] are going to do on their 25 year old pools, we'll see where that steps up. And we overall think aftermarket grows, and then we got carryover pricing that helps mitigate it. So the forecast we have or the thoughts we have as we head in next year is the understanding we'll probably see down sell through for our particular product, and our inventory corrections are based upon those assumptions. And as Bob said, we're trying to clear as much as possible in Q4 but we do believe that it's not going to be a perfect solution, and we'll see a little bit of runoff in Q1. That's all I can give you right now.
Nathan Jones:
The commentary today has been pretty bullish on the improvement around supply chain. Maybe you can talk a little bit more about where you are on supply chain, what disruptions remain and what your expectation is for how those play out in '23?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, I would point to pumps as an example. While we're still catching up on pumps, our supply chain there is getting marginally better. When we look at inflation, we expect inflation to still be a headwind in Q4 but to improve from Q3. So we are seeing some supply chain improvements, we're encouraged by that. John talked about some of the inefficiencies within the manufacturing process, those should lessen as we go into 2023 and be a tailwind for us. So I would say we are seeing that piece of the business improving.
Nathan Jones:
John, I think you said about $50 million of inefficiencies this year. Do you think you can get rid of all of that in '23, or there will still be some of that lingering around?
John Stauch:
I think that's a target that we believe we're after, and we believe between transformation and catching up on the supply chain that that's what we're after.
Bob Fishman:
I would add a third component to that. So we are adjusting our manufacturing cost for the volumes that we're seeing. So being rightsized going into 2023 from a manufacturing perspective is the third lever that we have.
Operator:
And next question comes from Bryan Blair of Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
You had mentioned resi water treatment down low double digits, channel dynamics somewhat similar to Pool. Just curious what your team is contemplating in terms of fourth quarter sales from resi treatments? And given current visibility, how long you expect channel normalization to take?
John Stauch:
We're taking advantage of strength in other places and what we're doing there is refocusing the business. We were putting products probably closer to the consumer, taking advantage of some of the themes and the trends that were happening during COVID, and we now reposition that business to be 100% focused on the trade channel and/or going through our direct market, which is our RainSoft affiliated dealers. So what you're seeing there is really business exits or us doing some 80/20 and walking away from product line revenue, and then reposition the business for success in 2023. So I think you're going to see a similar trend in Q4 than you're seeing and then we think we put all that behind us.
Bryan Blair:
And just to confirm, is $0.10 still the guide for Manitowoc Ice accretion next year? And I guess, to level set a bit more if we were to exclude that, is the expectation -- just given current visibility that you grow core earnings, given all the levers that you've walked through on today's call?
Bob Fishman:
$0.10 is still the EPS accretion target for '23. And we're really not in a position to give guidance for 2023 other than to say we have the five levers for earnings growth next year, whether it's price carryover, Manitowoc manufacturing inefficiencies, adjusting for volume or transformation, we feel good about income, EPS growth and ROS expansion next year.
Operator:
The next question comes from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.
Miguel De Jesus:
This is Miguel on for Brian Lee. Just to maybe piggyback off of that last question, I appreciate the early thoughts you gave on 2023. Can you maybe give a bit more color on maybe the mix of the contribution on revenue of price and volume, and on Manitowoc Ice for 2023?
John Stauch:
No. I mean, the reason we introduced the 2023 early thoughts chart is really to remind people that we're more than just a pool company. We believe we have a strong diversity of our portfolio that goes well beyond residential. It seems like, and you can tell by the questions we're being asked, we don't get a lot of questions on the other half of the business. And we want to remind people that we just cleared an acquisition that is a really healthy contributor to our commercial water pipeline and portfolio. We're way too early to be able to give the exact science behind all of the different revenue streams as we haven't finished our planning process internally, and we haven't seen where some of the global economics are going to land. So we're not in a position to do that other than tell you given those five levers that Bob mentioned, we feel really strong about our ability on an absolute basis to grow revenue and EPS next year.
Miguel De Jesus:
And then switching gears, and it's my last question. Recognizing that new pool is relatively small part of the business, but I wanted to make sure I heard correct. Are you able to provide an early view on new pool construction in '23? I thought I heard double digit decline next year from the prepared remarks, did I hear that correctly? And if not, I guess, how are you thinking about new pool in '23?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think that's fair. What we -- the only indication we have is that pool permits uphold, we generally get a look at what those pool permits are in the main states that we serve. And they would suggest that there's likely to be a double digit decline in actual new pool builds next year. And so that's how we're formulating our thought process.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Maybe just if you can speak to price carryover into 2023 just based on what you've already announced? And then just you mentioned the transformation savings. I know I think early next year, you're ready to talk more about that. But just any kind of early thoughts on how you're thinking about those savings into next year?
John Stauch:
I mean, I think the best way I can characterize it, Jeff, and you're familiar with the industry. I mean, 75% of our revenue goes through the professional trade channel through [distributors]. So in most normalized [seasons], which we think we’ll be heading into one in 2023, when we put price through, we normally are able to maintain those price levels throughout the process. And so we feel there's a stickiness to announce price increases and implemented price increases that we feel we're going to benefit from. So I would say that we are moving into next year and in most cases, we we are experiencing labor inflation. And we did further our price increases here in Q4 for the 2023 season. So between the incremental price increases we announced and the ones that we implemented previously in the year, we believe we're starting from a fairly healthy carryover position heading into 2023.
Jeff Hammond:
In transformation?
John Stauch:
We'll give a number when we produce the guide, but we've been working very, very hard on these individual streams. And we'll give directional views of what we think we're going to achieve across each of those streams when we give our guidance for next year on the Q4 earnings announcement.
Jeff Hammond:
And then just on Manitowoc Ice, maybe just level set us on -- I think that's a fairly stable business, but how -- and you've got pretty good visibility. But just how it's acted in maybe past recessions around cyclicality?
Bob Fishman:
It's a -- think of Manitowoc Ice has been roughly a 5% grower. When we look back historically, that's typically what the business does. There's seasonality associated with it, so about 60% of its revenue comes in Q2 and Q3 with 40% in Q1 and Q4. But overall, when we looked at the business, it's a pretty solid 5% grower. We talked about revenue synergies that could accelerate that to 10% when you add on the Everpure business, the KBI and the cross selling across some of the customers that each of us have. So again, when we look out over the next couple of years, we're encouraged by the revenue growth of that business.
John Stauch:
And Jeff, it's highly -- I mean, like our [Technical Difficulty] business, we benefit a lot towards the restaurants and they generally do relatively better in downturns and recessions. And they're very focused on cold drink dispense and that market tends to do best with inside those restaurants and stores.
Operator:
The next question comes from Scott Graham of Loop Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Really two questions. Could you -- the Pool side has been beaten to death, so I'm going to stay away from resi altogether. Could you tell us a little bit more about Commercial and Industrial sort of order or sales cadence as the quarter progresses? I don't mean dollars because everything is seasonal, of course. And the year-over-years, did you see any kind of fall off at all on into October?
John Stauch:
No, I think in our non-residential businesses, we feel like we continue to see order trends and funnels as growing as we're working through those particular cycles. The only place that we've seen the year-over-year headwinds has really been on the residential channel so far, so that's where we sit today.
Bob Fishman:
I would say because we started disclosing backlog in our Q, what you'll see when we file our Q is backlogs are very healthy in the IFT business. So that's an encouraging data point as well.
Scott Graham:
And so both of your comments also are about particularly your -- year-over-year growth in the commercial side of Consumer Solutions. Is that fair?
John Stauch:
As we sit here today, yes.
Scott Graham:
And then the longer term goal talked about in the Analyst Investor Day last year of getting to, I think it was 21% margin in 2025. You got residential that's going to be a little weaker for a couple of quarters coming with Pool a big chunk of that being higher margin. Does that enable us to keep to the 20 -- I mean, netting off against some of the other things you said about supply chain and internal inefficiencies, what have you. Can you still get to that number in 2025?
Bob Fishman:
I mean, we would be very disappointed if we did not. We talked at the Investor Day about transformation being our lever to expand 100 basis points a year, that excludes Manitowoc Ice. So when you add Manitowoc Ice to the mix, we would be disappointed if we just got to 21%. And I would say that we will get there much sooner than what we had described at our Analyst Day. Our focus is very much on ROS expansion.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Matthew Shaffer:
This is Matthew Shaffer on for Julian Mitchell. I was wondering how management is thinking about balancing inventory liquidation with the potential EPS headwind from underproducing to normalized inventory here over the next few quarters?
John Stauch:
Well, I mean, I think our inventory situation, as I said today, is mainly a result of us doing the best we can to get the raw inventory in around the core aspects have been hard to get, and we would expect to work that down pretty aggressively here over the next couple of quarters. And as Bob mentioned earlier, we'd be in a position to benefit from the cash generation of that inventory. It serves two purposes, it's moving down faster. If you think we can buy it cheaper in the future, obviously, we don't want to be sitting on higher cost inventory so we're aggressively moving to that reason. And the second one is the cash mobilization and getting the cash benefit from that inventory.
Matthew Shaffer:
And then on IFT, I was just curious like how management is thinking about the price volume dynamics here in Q4 and into 2023 after a pretty strong quarter here in Q3?
John Stauch:
We want to continue the momentum that we've built over the last couple of quarters, and it's not -- I mean, we'd like to accelerate it is what we'd like to do.
Bob Fishman:
And we're very focused on the complexity reduction, and the transformation will help that segment significantly.
John Stauch:
Okay. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. At Pentair, we are focused on creating a better world for people and the planet through smart, sustainable water solutions. We appreciate your interest today and as we continue to focus on helping the world sustainably move, improve enjoy water, life's most essential resource, we remain committed to driving superior shareholder value that we maybe the world's most valued sustainable water solutions company for employees, customers and shareholders. Andrea, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Pentair Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Jim Lucas, SVP, Treasurer SG&A and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas :
Thanks, Jamie, and welcome to Pentair's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you can join us. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we'll make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to detect and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today's release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to 1 and a follow-up to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4, titled Executive Summary. Pentair delivered another strong quarter with sales, segment income and adjusted EPS, all up double digits. We are particularly encouraged with our margin expansion, both sequentially and year-over-year as price more than offset continued inflationary headwinds. We're also excited to have received all of the necessary regulatory approvals related to our acquisition of Manitowoc Ice and we expect to close the acquisition later this week. With the significant growth of pool since 2019, and our Water Solutions business expected to exceed $1 billion in sales on a pro forma basis, including Manitowoc Ice and to be predominantly a commercial platform, we'll be moving to 3 segment reporting segments starting January 1, 2023. The 3 segments will be Pool, Water Solutions, Industrial & Flow Technologies. I'll provide more details on the new segment structure shortly. We are also introducing Q3 guidance of $0.93 to $0.95, and tightening our full year guidance to a range of $3.70 to $3.75. Bob will give more details on guidance later in the call, but we are seeing headwinds from FX translation as well as higher interest expense with the rise in rates over the past several months. We continue to believe we are well positioned in attractive markets. Transformation is helping strengthen our performance and the addition of Manitowoc Ice and our new segment structure positions us to continue delivering for all of our stakeholders. Please turn to Slide number 5, labeled Building a Stronger Commercial Water Solutions Platform. We introduced this slide in March when we announced our plans to acquire Manitowoc Ice. Manitowoc Ice is an iconic brand and a great business that we expect to help our commercial Water Solutions business to deliver scaled end-to-end water filtration and ice solutions for foodservice customers, along with predictive services that identify and address customer issues before they arise. This combination will transform our current water treatment business, which historically has been roughly 2/3 residential and 1/3 commercial focused. With Manitowoc Ice, we expect water treatment [indiscernible] on a pro forma basis, with commercial representing nearly 2/3 of the business and improved profitability in addition to even greater growth prospects. Please turn to Slide 6, labeled Aligning Organization for Accelerated Success. To further expand on our announced segmentation move, the addition of Manitowoc Ice will provide us with an expanded and scaled end-to-end commercial water solutions platform for important global customers. We will also reshape our water treatment business to be more commercial focused by both revenue and contribution of income than our residential business. In addition, our pool business has nearly doubled in revenue and income since 2018, which further supports the change in our Consumer Solutions segment structure. As a result, pool and water solutions will each become individual segments, and each will be focused on the respective growth and transformation plans in line with our expectations. Our existing Industrial & Flow Technologies segment will remain the same. As a result of this new structure, we have also announced a number of management changes effective January 1, 2023, when the new structure will take effect. We believe this new segment structure will help us accelerate our efforts to improve customer service, differentiate our products and drive profitability for our shareholders. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Transformation to Enhance Value Creation. As we have shared over the past several quarters, our transformation strategy is taking shape. We are creating new tools for our toolbox, and each business is identifying their own respective opportunities to transform their business models for future success. Overall, we are focused on 4 areas
Bob Fishman :
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q2 2022 Pentair Performance. We delivered second quarter sales growth of 13% with core sales increasing 12% with strong price contribution. We were particularly pleased with the top line performance given the tough comparison to last year. As we indicated last quarter, we expected to see price outpace inflation starting in the second quarter, and it played out as anticipated. Consumer Solutions delivered core sales growth of 15% against a tough comparison, and Industrial & Flow Technologies grew core revenue 7%. Segment income increased 18% and return on sales was 19.3%, which represented a 70 basis point increase year-over-year and a 210 basis point improvement sequentially. We were pleased to see the strong price contribution more than offset inflation, but many of our businesses continue to face supply chain inefficiencies, and we expect this to impact productivity in the near term. Below the line, net interest and other expense was just under $5 million. Our share count was $165.5 million and the adjusted tax rate was 16%. Adjusted EPS grew 21% to $1.02 and exceeded our guidance for the quarter. Please turn to Slide 9, labeled Q2 2022 Consumer Solutions performance. Consumer Solutions delivered another strong quarter with sales growing 19% and core sales increasing 15%. Segment income grew 18% and price more than offset inflation in the quarter. Pool sales grew 20% in the quarter, and we continued to see solid momentum as we continue through the '22 pool season. There is understandably a lot of focus on the pool industry, given the significant growth over the past 2 years. The pandemic changed consumer behaviors early on and whether it is moving to warmer climates, investing in the overall backyard or the emergence of new traveling like Airbnb, consumers are using pools more and more. The industry is estimated to be roughly 60% serving the installed base, 20% major remodeling and 20% new pool construction. New pool permits have historically run 10% of single-family starts and have been a little ahead of that lately, but pool dealers remain constrained by labor availability. Remodeling activity has been strong, but the focus on new pools has kept some of the remodeling activity from occurring, leading to healthy backlogs for dealers. Further, pool attrition has been lower as pool owners have a renewed interest in maintaining their pools. There are roughly 5.4 million pools installed and the average age of the installed base is approaching 20 years. The near-term focus for pool is managing the supply chain, keeping up with demand and improving the inventory health of all product categories. While some categories like heaters, lighting and cleaners have improved inventory positions leading to elevated growth, other categories like variable speed pumps, automation and sanitization still have healthy backlogs, given the limited availability of chips that has impacted deliveries. We continue to believe in the long-term prospects for the pool industry and will provide further updates when we report third quarter earnings in October regarding channel inventory levels as the pool season ends in September. Water Treatment grew sales 19% which included some contribution from KBI. Residential water treatment continues to be focused on complexity reduction and improving margins. Sales were up mid-single digits for the residential business with positive contribution from both affiliated dealers and components. Commercial Water Solutions continued to see a healthy recovery in its end markets, resulting in a healthy double-digit sales growth once again. The overall industry continued to improve, and KBI has strengthened and created new relationships for the business. Please turn to Slide 10, labeled Q2 2022 Industrial & Flow Technologies performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies grew sales 4% in the quarter with core revenue increasing 7%. Segment income grew 4%, and return on sales was flat at 15.7% as supply chain and plant inefficiency has continued. Residential flow grew sales 6% as demand in its channel remains solid and backlog return naturally to historic levels as component availability improved. Price has read out quite well so far this year and capacity constraints in the plants have slowly improved as labor challenges have been addressed. We expect more normalized seasonality to end the year, but are encouraged as sell-through in the channel remains healthy. Commercial flow sales were down 6% as the timing of shipments impacted the quarter. Backlog remained healthy, and we expect improvements in the supply chain should result in these delayed shipments occurring in the second half. The business continued to make progress in driving complexity reduction. Industry Solutions saw sales increase 9%. Backlog continues to be strong and orders were healthy in this longer cycle business, particularly within the sustainable gas solution business. Although this is a longer cycle business, it was encouraging to see healthy price readout in the quarter. Please turn to Slide 11, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. The balance sheet ended the second quarter exceptionally strong with leverage at 1x and return on invested capital just under 19%. Cash flow improved sequentially and was impacted some by higher inventory levels as supply chain inefficiencies continued. This is a combination of opportunistic raw material purchases and products that have been close to being completed while awaiting final components that have been delayed. Resins, drives and electronics continue to be the categories impacted by availability challenges. We expect inventory levels to come down through the second half. During the quarter, we completed our financing for the pending Manitowoc Ice acquisition. Given the rise in interest rates that occurred since we announced the transaction in March, we ended up with 75% of the debt variable to help mitigate some of the higher interest expense that will occur versus our original assumptions and to allow us to pay down the variable debt as free cash flow is generated. We repurchased $50 million of shares in the quarter. Our primary focus for the remainder of the year will be on debt reduction upon the closing of the Manitowoc Ice acquisition. Please turn to Slide 12, labeled Q3 and full year 2022 Pentair outlook. For the third quarter, we are introducing adjusted EPS guidance of $0.93 to $0.95, which represents a year-over-year increase of 4% to 7%. We expect total sales to grow 3% to 5% against a tough comparison as we expect seasonality for the business and channel inventory levels begin to normalize. We expect segment income to increase 5% to 7% with corporate expense coming in around $20 million, net interest expense of $6 million to $7 million, an adjusted tax rate of 16% and a share count of $165 million to $166 million. For the full year, we are adjusting our top line guidance to a range of 8% to 10% increase related primarily to a 1% higher FX headwind than previously forecasted. We expect segment income to increase 9% to 11% as we expect price continues to exceed inflation in the back half of the year, offset by manufacturing inefficiencies in the near term given ongoing component and labor availability. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $3.70 to $3.75 or an increase of 9% to 10% for the year. We have reduced the high end of our previous guide by $0.05 to reflect FX and interest headwinds. Below the line, we expect corporate expense to be around $80 million, net interest expense of $21 million to $23 million as interest rates have increased, an adjusted tax rate of approximately 16%, and shares to be around $165 million to $166 million. We continue to target free cash flow to approximate net income. We are focused on bringing down inventory levels despite ongoing supply chain inefficiencies. Our third quarter and full year guidance does not include the impact of Manitowoc Ice, which we expect to close later this week. For the balance of 2022, we would expect the acquisition to be neutral to earnings. We had previously communicated that we expect $0.25 of accretion in 2023. However, we now expect about a $0.15 headwind from higher interest expense as a result of rates rising since we announced the transaction in March, and we will now expect approximately $0.10 accretion in 2023. We continue to target $0.40 accretion by 2025. I would now like to turn the call over to Jamie for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Jamie, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz :
John or Bob, could you give us some more color into how you're thinking about pool moving forward? I know you said you can give us more of an update in October, but I think you did suggest earlier in the year that you some inventory correction in the channel and pool later in '22. So given the strength you saw in pool in Q2 but obviously, more normalized inventory in the channel. Do you expect a potential channel correction to be better or worse than your initial expectations? And what could that mean for '23 pool demand?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. From our perspective, the year is playing out very much like we thought it would be when we gave our initial guide at the beginning of the year. When we look at the business, we have a comparison to last year where, if you remember, inflation started accelerating in Q2, Q3 and Q4 of '21 and price was still catching up when we looked at the volume in last year's Q3 and Q4, really normal seasonality was not in play. Backlogs were high. We were shipping the products that we were available to us and revenue growth was primarily volume driven. As we built the guide for this year, our view was that price would start to read out quite effectively and price offset inflation in Q1 and then read out really nicely in the second quarter. And our view is price will continue to exceed inflation in the back half of the year. As we look at the back half of the year, price remains strong for the business. and channel inventories return to more normalized levels against tougher comparisons. So what that means is that our guide remains very consistent with what we said at the beginning of the year, and it sets us up for a more normalized pool season in 2023.
Andy Kaplowitz :
Bob, maybe I could ask you to elaborate on price versus cost dynamics and supply chain in the sense that commodities have started to come down, but you definitely still talked about supply chain and efficiencies. So is price versus cost or supply chain stabilizing with your expectations? Obviously, you're in the green in Q2. The expectation in the second half, is it better or worse than you had, kind of the same? What are you seeing in terms of overall price versus cost?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. I'll break that into the 2 pieces because we look at really in inflation and supply availability in 2 different pieces. From an inflation perspective, our biggest challenges really are across metals, motors, drives, electrical freight, including fuel charges and labor. Of those pieces, most are about the same with commodity prices, metals, copper, steel, showing some improvement, which would likely read out early next year. So our view is inflation gets a little bit better in the back half, but continues to be a challenge. From a supply availability perspective, heaters and lighting, cleaners have all improved. The challenge remains around variable speed pumps automation, sanitization, really anything related to availability of chips. We also continue to have challenges around resins drives electronics. So supply availability, about the same, inflation, getting a little bit better in the back half, but should read out in an improved fashion in 2023.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Giordano from Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
When you think about Manitowoc Ice in the context of a potential recession and consumer weakening. I know you cut the accretion just like on the interest side, but how do you just think about the underlying performance of a business like that relative to what maybe you thought when we made the announcement?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think we're still very positive about the outlook. I mean one of the things that gives us that confidence is Everpure, which is our commercial Water Solutions business, we've seen that business perform significantly well during cycles, I mean, other than COVID. And just as a reminder, we're not yet to the hospitality levels globally that we expect to get back to. And so when that global travel starts to open up, those are great markets that have been on pause for a little bit in those spaces. So we share some of the same accounts and we have opportunities to penetrate the complementary accounts. and multiple. And then we believe that the KPI service piece of it creates that ongoing service annuity around these 2 products. So no, we think it's going to perform well.
Joe Giordano:
And then can you just touch on the leadership changes and like kind of the flip flop from -- of responsibilities from 1 segment to another and what those individuals bring with a fresh set of eyes to those businesses?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean listen, Mario has brought a lot of great leadership capability to Pentair, and I'm sad by what we're doing here from a standpoint that we've almost a victim of our own success. I mean pool, as we mentioned, has almost doubled since 2018. And along the way, we're now competing directly with 2 stand-alone pool public companies. And that business needs a different level of agility and focus for it to deliver to the customers' expectations and be the premier pool provider. On the Water Solutions side, we're adding a commercial element that skews us more from a residential into a commercial aspect. So all of the great capability that Consumer Solutions built, the stronger brand, the customer service, the connected solutions, the effortless customer experiences all phenomenal progress over the last 8 to 10 quarters. All of that capability we use, but I want to use it closer to the customer. So pool needs what it needs to do from those capabilities, and then we need to make sure we're not losing sight of servicing the foodservice customers in Water Solutions. So Jerome used to run pool, and so he's coming back to lead that segment. And within Water Solutions, Adrian has been very close to that process through the transformation work and the onboarding of Manitowoc, and I feel like he's going to bring the right capability and leadership style. And Demond has run our pool business for the last 3 years. He's a long-term Pentair employee, and I think he's going to bring great capability to IFT. And Mario and I talked, and I think this is a great opportunity for him to use the skills and either take my job somewhere else or go lead is a bigger segment somewhere else. So that's a little bit of color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Halloran from Baird.
Mike Halloran:
So just a clarification on the pool inventory levels from Bob's comments, I just want to make sure I understand. Essentially, you're saying you are at normal channel inventory levels for everything that really doesn't involve ships or electronics, whereas the pieces like variable speed motors, sanitization, things like that. Those are not at normal levels, those are below normal levels from a channel inventory perspective? Is that accurate?
John Stauch:
Well, I think, Bob, I don't want to put words in your mouth. That's an end of year forecasted statement. And we've got a fair amount of volume reduction in our pool Q3 and Q4 year-over-year that would bring us into what we expect to be normalized levels by the end of the year. Correct?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. That's built into the guidance that we have. So our view is that still catching up on the heaters, lighting -- still catching up on the variable speed pumps, the sanitization, the automation. And heaters, lightings and cleaners will be -- those backlogs will come down in Q3 and Q4.
Mike Halloran:
Okay. So the commentary you made on the guidance piece of some destocking was primarily related to some of those pieces you just mentioned?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I think we had our guide that we felt like we were going to the original guide. And as Bob said, our current guys equaled that original guide. And we always forecasted that we would see those inventory levels start to come down as our lead times started to get better to the channel. I mean, historically, we were generally at 5 days out for any product we made. Clearly, when we were trying to catch up in 2021, that exceeded 180 days in some aspects. Those lead times are not yet back in line to the products that Bob mentioned, anything chip-related or IoT related. And we expect that we'll begin to catch those up between Q3 and Q4 and get more normalized as we head into next year.
Mike Halloran:
No, that makes sense. And then within the resi flow piece here, maybe just talk about what the sequential dynamics look like. And if you -- what kind of dynamics you're seeing on the stocking, destocking piece is kind of where end markets are tracking now versus where the inventory levels are?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, resi flow continues to remain strong from a demand perspective, our bigger challenges around supply availability and labor. So backlog looks healthy. Inventory in the channel looks healthy and in good shape, we just need to deliver that backlog in Q3 and Q4.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
I guess first one, just kind of going back to your comments, Bob, around -- and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but you sort of suggested normal full season dynamics in '23. I mean historically, is that sort of a framework of low single-digit price, mid-single-digit volume? Or could we expect there's still some additional price in '23 that persists from these kind of levels? And then maybe conversely, some volume headwinds given tougher comps and maybe a slower new pool market. Just trying to get a frame of reference when you're talking about sort of the normal, if there's a new normal or sort of the historical metrics you would be referencing?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. It's still very early to give our view of the 2023 pool season. But certainly, what we see today suggests more of a normal environment. So we spoke about inventory in the channels at the end of the year being more in line. And then that allows us to have some amount of price carryover from 2022, but more normalized seasonality in the business. So that's our view right now. We'll let the Q3 and the pool season ends in October and then have a better perspective on our next earnings call.
Brian Lee:
All right. Fair enough. And then in IFT, I'm not sure you provided color on this, but this was, I guess, the second straight quarter, no volume growth in IFT. Maybe just level set us a bit where are we in the cycle? Just kind of thoughts on volume growth in this segment moving through the rest of 2022?
John Stauch:
Yes. I just want to give some color and then Bob will take it a little deeper. I mean, just a reminder that in the flow in our IFT side, we struggle with some of the same challenges we're struggling with on the consumer solutions regarding variable speed and the availability of those drives. So we are still seeing a shortage of those products, and that's where we're having trouble getting the backlog out as well as, as Bob mentioned, some of the labor and some of the premium freight associated with that lingering around the cost side. So Bob, I don't know if you want to provide any more color there.
Bob Fishman:
It's really 3 different business. So we spoke about residential flow and that business continues to have good demand. Commercial sales was down. That's primarily due to us needing to improve some supply chain inefficiencies. And then the longer cycle Industrial Solutions business is doing well, led by sustainable gas. So again, a mix of businesses, but overall, pleased with the 7% core growth in IFT.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Saree Boroditsky from Jefferies.
Saree Boroditsky:
So just given the significant growth in pool demand over the last couple of years, I know you're not forecasting 2023 today, but if you do see some declines in demand into next year, what kind of levers do you have to keep profitability?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. We have a number of levers. I'll start with transformation. The transformation program is really gaining momentum. We're seeing some small benefit this year in '22, but a significant funnel being built in the transformation. And we talked about a 300 basis points improvement for the overall Pentair business to 2025. So certainly on track to deliver that, so it starts with transformation. Then we have a number of inefficiencies to be honest, in the '22 P&L, and we're in the process of looking at those as we build out our plans for next year, but everything from air freighting product to having our labor and certain manufacturing inefficiencies in our factories. So overall, lots of opportunity to expand margins next year through the transformation and being laser-focused on the inefficiencies this year.
Saree Boroditsky:
And then just given the addition of Manitowoc Ice in a couple of days, could you give us an update on how you're thinking about contribution to revenues for this year and then earnings into 2023?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. So we have a page in the deck that talks about Manitowoc being around $325 million of revenue. If you took 5/12 of that, you can be pretty close to the revenue number. And then from an income perspective, we've talked about that being a 30% EBITDA margin business. And so again, if you took 5/12 of that, you come up with roughly what the EBITDA would be for the business.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Bryan Blair from Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
I was hoping you could offer a little more detail on underlying trends in commercial water treatment prepared remarks and pretty bullish on trajectory there. Just curious if there's any discernible shift in underlying demand as Q2 progressed or what you're seeing in the early part of Q3?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean it's a steady mid-single-digit grower normalized, and we continue to see it flip along at that rate. I think there's always a little bit of headlines on restaurants that are challenged, but then you always see or don't hear about the new restaurants that come online. And so while restaurants might not be able to fill out their capacity levels because of labor constraints, it doesn't mean that they're necessarily using less water. And that water in most of our restaurants is filtered to a high-quality standard. So I mean, we're seeing good progress there, and we're continually to be bullish on that particular space.
Bryan Blair:
I appreciate the color. And just to level set, are there any operational factors that are restricting Manitowoc Ice accretion this year or lowering the 2023 outlook? It sounds like it's strictly interest expense. Just want to make sure that, that is the case.
Bob Fishman:
Just interest. The business is tracking well, and our goal is to be focused on synergies next year in addition to that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Question on the inventory comments. You talked about looking to take inventory down in the second half of the year despite supply chain challenges. Is that more related to the seasonality in the business that you're looking to take inventory down? Or is there a move at the moment to structurally reduce inventory that you may have been carrying because of the supply chain challenges.
John Stauch:
Both. I mean, I think Bob mentioned that we're going to have a normal seasonality next year, just to be clear, regardless of what the pool outlook is for 2023. We think it will be back in line with historical patterns of peak performance in Q2, a little lighter in Q1 and Q4 regarding that pattern and that's what we think to happen. And what we expect to be at is that we're back to more normalized inventory that would reflect no more further significant supply chain issues. I had a couple more questions on that. We're still short, as you've heard from some of our key customers. And they need those variable speed pumps. They need the sanitizers. And when we finish those out and get those to them, they can get to close the pool pads out, and then that brings the inventory back in line.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Makes sense. And 1 on the transformation. You guys have been talking about the funnel of opportunities for transformation continuing to build. But I noted in the in the press release today that there's no expected expenses for transformation in the second half of the year. Can you just talk about -- have these been self-funding now? Or why are they not expenses related to transformation, but you're talking about a building pipeline of opportunity?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. We typically would not forecast transformation expenses. We do forecast the amortization on intangibles going forward, but we would not forecast that. You can expect us to continue at about the same rate as what you saw in Q1 and Q2 in the back half of the year as we spend money on third-party consultants to help us drive primarily pricing and sourcing.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Matthew Shaffer:
You have Matthew Shaffer on from Julian Mitchell's team. My first question was for IFT, you guys had good margin expansion year-over-year in 2021, but that seemed to run out of scheme in 2022. What are your expectations for margin expansion in the division for the remainder of the year? And then can you just remind us to the IFT complexity reduction initiatives and the expected impacts there?
Bob Fishman:
We are pleased with the IFT ROS improvement in the business. We do expect to finish the year with return on sales higher than the prior year. You'll remember that last year, they started benefiting from complexity reduction in the back half that trend has continued, and we continue to have momentum in that business. So overall, we were flat for Q2, but do expect in the back half of the year. to see Ross expansion in that business.
John Stauch:
And as I said in my comments, we had a supplier show, and you probably heard me talk about all the great opportunity to partner differently with supply partners, you should read into that a lot of complexity of product, both in the form of castings as well as semiconductors and PCB boards and et cetera. And so as we go forward, the opportunity to consolidate those designs is a big piece of how we think we're going to drive longer-term margins in IFT and Consumer Solutions, of course, but we'll see it in IFT as well.
Matthew Shaffer:
Great. And then the second half sales growth applied to be low single digits, mid-single digits for the company. How much of that growth will be from price first volume? Or any detail there would be very helpful.
Bob Fishman:
We expect price to continue to be strong at that double-digit rate. So we did 10% in Q1 and 14% in Q2. So I think double digits in the back half is our assumption.
John Stauch:
And then if action continues to be the headwind on a year-over-year basis, and you can back into the volume, which is comparison to higher levels in Q3 and Q4. And then also, as we mentioned, our views of what the inventory correction will be in the channel due to supply chain catching up.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Just can you give us the -- like what's the assumption for the volume decline in pool in the second half? And then just on the third quarter, I think you're saying 3% to 5% growth. What's kind of -- is there much differentiation between the 2 segments?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. We don't really want to get into all the specific pieces for each of the different segments. I would say that overall, for the company, we've talked about price reading out double-digit. You can think about acquisitions, roughly offsetting FX and then the rest is volume. So think about volume as being down low single digits to mid-single digits in the back half.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then can you give us any color on how to think about Manitowoc Ice seasonality? Is it pretty ratable quarter-to-quarter or?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, pretty flat quarter-to-quarter.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just last on transformation, just -- you guys have been talking about it for a while. What do you think is the timing where you start to kind of spike out kind of the different buckets and cost savings, et cetera?
John Stauch:
I think early next year, in accordance with when we provide the guidance, we would expect to give you the transformation expectations and break out some of the components of how we're going to achieve that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Graham from Loop.
Scott Graham :
John, Bob, Jim. I wanted to ask you maybe to develop your answer to a previous question, I think about 1 business for July. How are things in July in general? Is there any big change, 1 segment versus another versus the second quarter? Just maybe whatever you can tell us about July would be helpful.
Bob Fishman:
Off to a good start in July, a lot of it comes down to the allocation of key product, and so we're on track to deliver the quarter based on the start in July.
Scott Graham :
Got it. And forgive me for not having to put pent of paper on your last answer on download to mid-single for the second half in the volumes. But is the second quarter pricing, is that kind of the peak and then we kind of moderate a little bit because the second half of last year, you started to see the ramp?
Bob Fishman:
That's exactly right. Still double digits, but starts to moderate.
Scott Graham :
That’s great. If I could just squeeze in this last one. You’ve got a pretty healthy incremental margin implied in your third quarter guidance. Is that mostly a widening of the price cost gap or is there something else?
A –Bob Fishman:
Price cost stays about the same and I think the Q3 Ross is roughly in line with the first half.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
So I had 2 questions. One is simply on gross margin, where you noted, obviously, price is catching up and nicely so to some of the cost increases we've seen. Is there still [100 bps] or more tailwind as that continues to happen and you revert back to higher gross margin levels. I know those issues of mix and I know those issues of don't necessarily get margin on pricing. So just -- is there still a continued tailwind on gross margin?
John Stauch:
Yes. I'll take the first part, and then Bob will give you a little bit more color. I'm looking at '19, and I'm looking at my gross margins in '19. And as you recall, we took a small dip in '20 as COVID started to unfold, and we've been catching up ever since. And so our gross margins are still down from '19, and we still believe when we look at our transformation savings that we're using that historical point and then seeking to drive significant gross margin expansion from there. So as we think of pricing as we think of sourcing, it's not just about getting back from -- back to that level. We want to be back to that level and then some which would get after the right pricing dynamics that we're seeking in each of our industries as well as getting real sourcing benefits from our supply partners. And from, as I mentioned earlier, reducing the complexity of our designs through our incentives of Excellence. So Bob, I don't know if you want to bring more color.
Bob Fishman:
Yes, all of our transformation initiatives are focused on sustainable gross margin improvement. So when we talk about 300 basis points of RAS, you can basically equate that to 300 basis points minimum of gross margin.
Rob Wertheimer:
Perfect. And then from here, is that more pricing catching up? Or is that more just like reducing all the inefficiencies and then doing all the things you're talking about transformation to get there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think in our distribution and dealer-based businesses, we're pretty confident having been through these cycles before that our customers understand that labor is a big piece of the price that the price efforts we put into place, we would expect to be more sustainable levels. When you get a more project to the OEM-related businesses, I mean, there is a dynamic where we would expect to see pricing headwinds in those businesses, and we need to capture more sourcing savings to drive those gross margins as we go forward. So it's different depending on what business you're looking at, it's a combination of both of those things.
Rob Wertheimer:
Perfect. And then if I can, I mean, there's a lot of questions on -- really on the consumer, obviously, the big theme in the quarter. And you have some natural strength, I mean pool has a lot of stability to a lot of backlog, a lot of different things. I'm curious if you're able to look through all that in whether consumer treatment or anything else on just what the current mood is. If you're seeing any downturn or any inflection on near-term purchases that would indicate a change in trends, and I'll stop there.
John Stauch:
Yes. I think it's hard to see the immediate reactions. I mean, it's logical to think that higher interest rates are going to put a pinch on consumer spending. And I would say that we break those into 2 categories, what's the discretionary piece and what's the nondiscretionary piece. We don't see pool owners, in particular, on the high end, really changing behavior at all. House is still continuing to transact. Some of those or most of those, I should say, are cash based, and they're still going to seek those pools. I think where we may or may not see it as we look into 2023 and '24 is on remodeling, home remodeling, and/or what is a nondiscretionary purchase of a higher-end water softener, water treatment system, et cetera. That's where we'd see it. We have not seen it yet, but that's where we would expect to see and measure the consumer sentiment regarding our products. The rest is break and fix and I'd call that nondiscretionary and you need a pump, you need a pump. You need a filter replaced, you need a filter replaced.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Damien Karas from UBS.
Damien Karas:
Just have a follow-up question on price. You mentioned you're expecting up double digits in the second half. Is that primarily just coming from prior price actions? And how should we be thinking about what your refreshed pricing that usually hits in September is going to be aligned? I mean is there some incremental price that's likely to happen? And just we're talking lower relative to actions from the past year? Or given material deflation that we've been seeing recently, is it possibly just more of a pause on kind of the September price refresh?
Bob Fishman:
So to answer your first question, the price reading out in the back half of the year is based on all of the price actions that we have taken over the last couple of quarters. So those are locked in. As we think about price moving forward in the back half of the year, price increases, I would expect at this point that there will be some price increases. Labor continues to be high. while we are seeing some relief in commodity, we continue to see pressure on other pieces of the supply chain. So definitely moderating, but at least at this point, suggesting some small price increase.
Damien Karas:
Okay. That's helpful. And Bob, you talked about the higher interest expense and variable debt. Could you maybe just give us your updated thinking on capital structure and your capital deployment priorities post closure of the Manitowoc deal?
Bob Fishman:
So from a capital allocation perspective, maintaining our investment grade is extremely important to us. So I typically start with that. In terms of paying our dividend, we've increased our dividend 46 years in a row. That's important as well. Near-term focus will be on debt reduction as we bring down that interest cost. And then from an M&A perspective, we are entirely focused on the successful integration of Manitowoc Ice and driving the synergies that we've discussed previously. So from a capital allocation perspective, those would be the key priorities.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to John Stauch, President and Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us today. It's an exciting time for Pentair, and we are preparing to make the most of it. We expect Manitowoc Ice and our new segmentation to be accelerators for all of our stakeholders, and we look forward to updating you on our progress in the future. Jamie, you can conclude the call. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Pentair’s Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Jim Lucas. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks Jay, and welcome to Pentair's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us today. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior VP, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today's release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch :
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 4 titled executive summary. We were pleased to deliver a solid first quarter that exceeded our previously communicated expectations. Sales expanded 15% in the first quarter, and we were encouraged to see price continue to read out positively. Inflation is unfortunately not showing any signs of moderating, which is why we expect to increase price even further to cover the incremental inflation headwinds. During the first quarter, we announced the agreement to acquire Manitowoc Ice, which I’ll discuss it a little bit more detail shortly. We believe this is a great complimentary acquisition that will help enhance our strong commercial water solutions business. Bob will give more details on our guidance later in the call. But we are updating our full year guidance to reflect a little more top line growth. And our full year adjusted EPS range remains unchanged at $3.70 to $3.80. We are entering our seasonally strongest quarter with continued momentum. And we believe that Pentair is well positioned for 2022 and beyond. Please turn to slide 5, labeled building a track record of consistent growth. We believe in our strategy, and we are building a track record of consistent growth despite the many external global supply chain and inflation challenges that most companies are facing. Growing a core is our number one priority. Whether it is sales, income growth, or margin expansion, we must deliver in all areas. We are a leader in pool and continue to be well positioned to serve a large growing installed base. Water treatment is benefiting from consumers focusing on water quality, which benefits both our residential and commercial businesses. We have a sizable flow business with several strong positions in areas such as water supply, water disposal, fire suppression, and flood control. Our industrial solutions business continues to focus around its two biggest opportunities, membrane filtration, and sustainable gas. I will touch on transformation in a moment. But we believe this is one of the biggest long-term opportunities for Pentair. This is not just about unlocking value and improving margins. Rather it is about doing things better and more optimally, and positioning Pentair for the best possible future. Our balance sheet has been one of our biggest strengths, and we are currently in the process of using it with the announced agreement to acquire Manitowoc Ice. While we have built an improved track record of growth in the past couple of years, we believe there's still a long runway ahead for Pentair. Please turn to slide 6, labeled transformation to enhance value creation. Transformation is a word we chose carefully because we are not just focused on taking out costs. Transformation is about improving the way we do business. I remind the team consistently that we need to celebrate the successes of what we have been doing and the way we have done it. But that does not mean these are the right processes going forward. Transformation comes from our lean methodology. It is about identifying the current state, recognizing that you can be much better and therefore creating the future state vision and then building your transformation plan to achieve it. We are focused on four transformational areas, pricing, sourcing, operations and distribution and organizational effectiveness. While 2021 was about planning, we are now moving to the execution phase. Our two biggest opportunities are in pricing and sourcing where we brought in outside partners to help us transform these key processes. We continue to build funnels and we're seeing momentum build, as our outside partners help train us on how to unlock additional value within our four targeted areas. We are bringing greater focus and prioritization and we're using data analytics to drive our decision making. We have seen many of our more complex businesses such as flow make great strides and improving margins, and they are now turning the focus on targeted growth opportunities. Transformation is a key value creator for Pentair longer term, and we look forward to updating you in more detail and sharing our targets and expectations for 2023 and beyond later in the year. Please turn to slide 7, labeled advancing total water management and building a stronger commercial water solutions platform. In early March, we announced our agreement to acquire Manitowoc Ice. We believe it's a great business that will allow us the opportunity to bring to our customers a total water management solution through our commercial water solutions business and expand our offerings. On a pro forma basis, we expect our commercial water solutions business to be a nearly $700 million business, made up of three different growing categories. Everpure is a projected $225 million very high margin respected industry brand that allows us to provide our foodservice customers with high quality water for their specialty needs. Manitowoc is a projected $325 million high margin brands that has a proven track record of creating and delivering dependable ice machines. And KBI is a projected $125 million lower margin, but significantly important and well known service leader with a reputation for providing one of a kind service, preventative maintenance and infrastructure for commercial customers. Combined, these three businesses can offer end to end water filtration ice solutions for food service customers, along with predicted services that identify and address customer issues before they arise. Together, we anticipate that we can deliver sustained commercial water solutions, double digit revenue growth at mid-20s margins by providing ice and better cleaner water to people all around the world. We expect the closing the Manitowoc transaction to occur in the second or third quarter, subject to regulatory approvals. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to slide 8, labeled Q1 2022 Pentair performance. We deliver first quarter sales growth of 15% with core sales increasing 12% with strong price contribution. While inflation continues to accelerate, we were pleased to see price offset inflation for the first time in almost a year. Consumer Solutions delivered core sales growth of 17% and Industrial and Flow Technologies grew core revenue 6%. Segment income increased 5% while return on sales declined 180 basis points to 17.2%. The principal contributors to the margin decline were the lower margin impact of recent acquisitions, supply chain inefficiencies and elevated inflation. We were encouraged to see return on sales improve sequentially with strong price contribution. While inflation is showing no signs of moderating and supply chain disruptions remain, we expect return on sales to show strong sequential improvement into the second quarter. Below the line net interest debt expense was just under $4 million. Our share count was 166.5 million, and the adjusted tax rate was 16%. Adjusted EPS grew 5% to $0.85 and exceeded our guidance for the quarter. We made the decision to exit what has been a very small business in Russia. Exiting the business resulted in a $6 million charge relating to the write-off of receivables, inventories and other costs related to contracts that we will no longer fulfill. This was the right thing to do. And we know that both our sales before and its cost related to our exit were immaterial amounts. Please turn to slide 9, labeled Q1 2022 Consumer Solutions performance. Consumer Solutions delivered another strong quarter with sales growing 23% and core sales increasing 17%. The acquisitions of KBI and Pleatco were positive contributors to the top line. However, they do operate today at lower margins. And this resulted in pressure on return on sales. Segment income grew 6% and price nearly offset inflation in the quarter as we continue to see strong readout in both businesses within consumer solutions. Pool sales grew 23% in the quarter, and we continue to see strong momentum entering the beginning of the pool season. We commented last quarter that we are seeing channel inventory is more in line with historical levels. And while some categories are still catching up, the channel is in much better shape entering this season this year than last. Within Pool, we have a relentless focus on creating an even more effortless experience for our customers. We have recently launched a new order status portal that allows customers to have greater visibility on order status information without making calls. We have also enhanced our phone system for easier navigation to ensure that dealers and consumers alike receive the proper and advanced resource support when needed. One of our key differentiators in Pool’s long-term success is loyalty from our dealers. We have long focused on industry leading sales and technical training to enable our dealers to learn the benefits of our products and help facilitate an easier installation process. We have invested in experienced training centers to allow dealers as well as builders and service companies to have a more intimate learning of our products. One of our key areas of focus is to enable our customers, both distributors and dealers to advance their businesses. We continue to focus on building our innovation pipeline. We are launching our new IntelliFlo 3 pump to create a more efficient flow management experience. We are also launching a higher end version of this pump, with a mini automation system on board to provide the consumer with enhanced control and functionality of their pool. Overall Pool is seeing strong demand from dealers and builders with good visibility through the 2022 season. We continue to carry a healthy backlog in Pool. Although this has historically been a short cycle business with low lead times. As we continue to increase capacity, and hopefully see signs of supply chain inefficiencies easing, we expect backlog to come down through the course of the year. Water Treatment through sales 24%, which included some contribution from KBI. Residential water treatment continues to be focused on complexity reduction, and improving margins. Sales were up mid-single digits for the residential business with positive contribution from both affiliated dealers and components. Commercial Water Solutions continued to see a healthy recovery in its end markets, resulting in healthy double digit growth once again. The addition of KBI has improved and brought in many of our customer relationships. The core Everpure business has enjoyed a strong rebound in quick service restaurants and convenience stores with improvements starting to come in the hospitality sectors as consumers once again start traveling more. We have been most encouraged with the global nature of the recovery in commercial water solutions. In addition to our total water management efforts, this continues to be an important growth factor for us and is contributing a healthy funnel of new opportunities with current and new distributors, dealers and customers. We're also seeing the food service industry particularly quick serve restaurants, adapting to new standards in restaurant design and equipment that is generating opportunities for new installations and reconfiguration of existing restaurants. Please turn to slide 10, labeled Q1 2022 Industrial and Flow Technologies performance. Industrial and Flow Technologies grew sales 4% in the quarter with core revenue increasing 6%, segment income grew 4% and return on sales increase as all businesses within IFT are making progress on complexity reduction. Residential flow grew sales 1% but this included a headwind from a small product line divestiture in the quarter. Overall, residential flow continues to see strong demand as it enters its seasonally strongest quarter. The business is being impacted by supply chain inefficiencies and labor shortages, which along with strong demand has resulted in strong backlog for this historically shorter cycle business. Overall, we expect residential flow to have a solid year with price reading out nicely and backlog being worked out as supply chain and inefficiency, hopefully begin to ease as the year progresses. Commercial flow grew sales 1% as the focus continues to be on complexity reduction and improving margins. The business has made good progress in fuel reduction, driving productivity and beginning to move to more of configure to order instead of engineer to order business model. This is resulting in greater efficiency in the plan and we have seen several quarters in a row of margin improvement as a result. Industrial solution saw sales increase 11% as larger global beer manufacturers are increasing their CapEx budget, and we continue to see strong demand in orders and sales for our sustainable gas business. The business also benefited from the addition of Pleatco. Overall, the longer cycle industrial solutions business has seen solid improvement in orders and backlog. And we expect the top line momentum to continue as the year progresses. Please turn to slide 11, labeled balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet ended the first quarter in very strong shape. Our leverage ended the quarter just over one time and our return on invested capital remained in the high teens. Free cash flow usage in the quarter was more in line with historical trends than what we experienced at the start of last year when sales were more linear through that quarter. To start 2022, we saw a slow start in January due in part to Omicron related absenteeism in many of our factories. We had a particularly strong last month of the quarter that resulted in higher receivables that we should collect in the second quarter. In addition, we have been advantageously buying higher than usual level of key components as we manage through today's supply chain inefficiencies. For the year, we continue to expect free cash flow to approximate net income, and the second quarter should see traditional strength and free cash flow generation in line with historical trends. Please turn to slide 12, labeled, Q2 and full year 2022 Pentair outlook. For the second quarter, we are introducing adjusted EPS guidance of $0.98 to $1.01 which represents a year-over-year increase of 17% to 20%. We expect total sales to grow 11% to 13%, which we believe is a strong showing, given the particularly difficult comparison to the same period last year. We expect segment income to increase 14% to 17%, with corporate expense coming in around $20 million, net interest expense of $5 million to $6 million and adjusted tax rate of 16% and a share count of 166.5 to 167.5 million. For the full year, we are modestly increasing our top line guidance to a range of 9% to 11%, reflecting a slightly better showing in the first quarter in addition to further price action anticipated to offset continued higher inflation. We continue to expect segment income to increase 10% to 13%. And adjusted EPS in the range of $3.70 to $3.80, or an increase of 9% to 12% for the year. Below the line, we expect corporate expense to be around $80 million, net interest expense of $18 million to $20 million and adjusted tax rate of approximately 16% and shares to be around 167 million to 168 million. Finally, as we stated previously, we expect free cash flow to approximate net income. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jay for Q&A after which John will have a few closing remarks. Jay, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, good morning, guys. I wanted to just start on IFT actually, the volume number there was negative, which was maybe a little bit surprising. So just any color there, obviously, price is going to read through and it's offsetting that. But did that kind of like accelerate to the downside at the end of the quarter? How did that kind of looking? What's the view on volumes therefore as you go forward?
John Stauch :
From a volume perspective, it was really within our residential, our flow business. And what we saw there was just some of the challenges associated with labor shortages and supply chain challenges. That got us off to a slow start in the quarter. What we like within the flow business is the backlog remains strong, the demand is there. So from our perspective, it was more a matter of battling through some of those challenges, and then starting to grow more significantly throughout the year.
Joe Giordano:
Okay, great. And then follow up just on the inventory build. Is that like finished product ready to go out? Or is this like stuff that's still waiting for components that are still hard to get, like semi-finished inventory that you have?
John Stauch :
Yes, really the latter is, it is raw material that advantageously buying products so that we can meet demand for its product that's waiting to be built into finished goods. So it is a headwind for us in the first quarter and we're actively setting targets and managing that but it is a reflection of the supply chain challenges that we face.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran of Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, good morning, gentlemen. On the price cost side, obviously, good to see you catching up in and being towards even in the quarter, how are you thinking about that going forward from here? Obviously, put another price increase to manage the current inflation or incremental inflation. Is the first quarter peak pain and is that how you're thinking about it in the guidance and any thoughts on how that cadences through the year?
John Stauch :
From our perspective, inflation will continue to stay high, I looked at the inflation amount that was in Q1 of roughly $89 million. And we're not assuming that gets any better the balance of the year. But the good news is that prices reading out, and so we should see price cost difference increase throughout the year, which will help our margin expansion story. We're positive around margins improving from -- in the second half versus the first half, margins will improve significantly in the second quarter, both sequentially, and on a year-on-year basis. So we start winning the price cost battle, rather than just offsetting it like we did in the first quarter. So we're encouraged there. From our perspective, Q1 was very much of an inflection point, we improved margins versus Q4, and we had a number of quarters previous to that where we were showing margins declining. So from our perspective, margin expansion continues from here, with Q1 having been the biggest challenge.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks for that. And then on Manitowoc Ice, you mentioned in the prepared remarks, double digit growth expectations, just with the mid-20% margins, maybe you can help on the growth side, just parse out how are you thinking about that from market versus some of these revenue synergies targets that you laid out on the acquisition conference call? And then kind of a second part of the question is just thoughts on the timing of close, and if anything's changed on that side?
John Stauch :
Yes. So I mean, if you take the three categories we talked about, I mean, obviously, we have two of them in our portfolio today, we're still waiting to bring the third one in. But whenever cure itself has always been a mid to high single digit performer like, just volume alone. And we still don't have the full recognition of the global hospitality markets recovering anywhere near where they were pre-COVID. And we're still waiting for that to occur. And when that occurs, we're really confident that we're going to continue to see that expansion on our filtration lines. Our KBI business has been growing double digits and continues to see that type of opportunity, primarily around installation service plan maintenance for key partners, domestically. And then when we took a look at the Manitowoc acquisition, and due diligence, it has a similar growth profile to Everpure. So absent any synergies at all, we think these are mid-single digit growers. And then when you add some of the prospective synergies that we hope to deliver on that, then that's how you get to the double digits. And then the margins of blend, as I said have very high margin product businesses between Ice and Everpure been offset by a low margin KBI service offering.
Mike Halloran:
And then just timing of close, any change there?
John Stauch :
Yes, I mean, we were targeting Q2, we've clearly said Q2 or Q3. We continue to work through the regulatory processes, it's taken longer than we would expect it and there's a big deal that between two partners on the larger side that they've got to get through and then we've got to get through our, so yes, we do think that this is more of early Q3, Q2 being the best case
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, can we started in pool, very impressive growth. And you commented that you've seen normal channel inventory. How about product availability? Remember a year ago that was an issue, any issues there with products, how's the channel look and just degree of confidence about a strong start to the year without an early buy I know. And then you degree of confidence and be able to grow in ‘22 despite tough comps.
Bob Fishman:
I can start with that one. We are seeing channel inventory is more in line with historical level. Some of the categories within that doors are still catching up. So continuing to be focused really across the product lines but overall in very good shape there as we enter what should be a very robust pool season in 2022. Our view is that we're in very good shape with the backlog and with the demand to continue to grow the pool business. We have guidance, previously, we had guidance of mid to high single digits for consumer solutions, and we raised our revenue guide. So consumer solution is really trending more towards high single digits with obviously, pool leading the way. So we're confident that this will be another strong year of growth for the pool business. The underlying factors driving the growth of more of a larger installed base, due to new pool builds over the last couple of years, our focused on the replacement side of the business, more people buying second homes, more people putting in pools that underlying demand is there, which is why we're optimistic. I would say our guide for the year is realistic, we expect growth to continue, we don't want to get ourselves ahead of ourselves, and we want to get ahead of ourselves for Q4. We want to set ourselves up for a good start to the 2023 season as well. So I think we've got a very balanced forecast, and remain very optimistic about the pool business.
John Stauch :
Deane, if I can just add, I mean, you followed us for some time. I think the products that we're most excited by are the automation products, and they are the ones that are hardest to get through the supply chain. And so we're encouraged by the desires of the consumers to add more automation to their pool pads. And we're doing the best we can but we're fighting for chips and drives like everybody, and we want to make sure we got those products to the consumers and satisfying their long-term pool automation needs.
Deane Dray:
Yes, that's great to hear. I'll take the specifics on the IntelliFlo automation systems that you've added. I'll take that offline with Jim, really interested in hearing about the features and functionality. And I just as a follow up question really impressive work on price costs. I just wanted to -- I was -- I'm intrigued by your comment that you're getting additional outside consultants on pricing. And we've seen other companies do this and do it successfully value based pricing and so forth, but on the expectation for ’22, will you start to benefit from that additional, like data analytics on pricing? And is that baked into your guide? Thanks.
John Stauch :
Yes, we're working like crazy, Deane. And let me give you an inside view here. I mean, we price primarily to distribution prices to dealers, and we've done that historically more blind to what the actual consumer in the market is paying. And so getting that understanding of what the value to the end customer is regarding our products, obviously, versus competitor alternatives in the market space is very important for us to price effectively and thoughtfully. And that's what we're spending time doing, Deane. So that we can think of the end-to-end value proposition of our core products. And get our fair share of that. So most of the pricing we've done today, it is just been trying to catch up with inflation, what we want to do going forward is to really think of the value that product provides and price it effectively, we're only working on three categories right now. We have about 20 product lines that we're focused on. So our goal is to accelerate that as quickly as possible this year. So to make sure that we utilize that analytics into next year's pricing season.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.
Miguel Barrio :
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you. I just wanted to go back to just the guidance real quick. And I'd say this is Miguel on for Brian Lee. The segment income, the revenue growth guidance increase, but the segment income growth was unchanged, based on the commentary it seems like price cost is reading out well and seeing a nice deflection from the first quarter. But I think the guiding suggests a bit more pressure on margins for the full year than what was anticipated prior, is that fair, and is all of that a result of inflation or is there anything else that is kind of become more incrementally more challenging on the cost or the pricing side? Thanks.
John Stauch :
Yes, I think that's a fair assumption. I think we had a pessimistic view of inflation heading into our early guide. And it's even worse than that, which is where the incremental price comes into play. If we took a look at where that inflation is coming from, it's primarily the oil based freight. And the responses necessary to catching up the global supply chain because COVID is not over. And you're familiar with what's going on in China right now. And that means that to get that product in ahead of the season, there's going to be some incremental freight costs associated with it. And that's what we're working through. And obviously, we're working with all kinds of supply chain partners to optimize the availability of product, but we have a season and that season is Q2 and Q3. And we're going to do what's necessary to deliver the product within that season, and it is going to cost us a little bit more to get that product in. And given the demand that we feel is there in the end markets, I think we'll be able to recover that. But yes, your observation is correct.
Miguel Barrio :
Thanks. I have a just a quick follow up, if I may. Just wanted to go back on the inventory build. Are the materials and the related products there? Are they related more to I guess, one segment or another like for IFT, just based on the commentary on chips, just any color that would be great.
Bob Fishman:
The increase in inventory is really broad based and really cuts across both consumer solutions and IFT. So from our perspective, it's no one category, it's really across our businesses.
John Stauch :
And as motors drives and drives our chips, right, semiconductors, it's the same product that we've been chasing for the last five quarters. And it's the same products that the whole entire global supply chain is trying to get their hands on.
Bob Fishman:
Yes, if you look at our supply chain challenges, its residents, motor drives, electronics on the inflation side, it's sprayed metals, electronics, motors, castings, and molding. So across the board, nothing's getting easier. So big thank you to our supply and ops teams that did an incredible job, especially in the month of March after we got off to a slower start because of COVID.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys. Hey, in Pool Corp’s release, they talked about kind of five point benefit from an extra day and early buy which I assume means contractors are taking product earlier. And I'm just wondering if you're seeing that as well, and kind of how then forms kind of a 2Q ramp if that is indeed taking place.
Bob Fishman:
We're really not seeing that, no significant or early buy and really nothing outside of what we've done historically. So nothing really bad there unless we could get some more color.
John Stauch :
Hey, Jeff, I mean, our Q2 forecast assumes that we do better in April than January because we got off that slow start and then we continue to meet that Q2 seasonal ramp and at the moment, we're very confident about that. And that's where the growth is coming from. And then to remind you, most of our dealers are on a pool season ends at the end of Q3, Pool Corp is on a fiscal year end like we are and so that we start to identify and fulfill those pool obligations in Q3. And then we take a look at next year's inventory needs and we partner with our channel to figure out what's needed for 2023. So that's how we're working through it. And as a reminder, we didn't do much early buy at all because of the demand and the backlog. So what we're doing right now is building sell-through demand.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great. And then just on, we've kind of did our own checks and haven't really been able to find cracks, but we've seen kind of the consumer step back in some areas, obviously you're seeing tons of inflation rates higher. People seem to be shifting from kind of stay at home to services and I'm just wondering, as you pull your channel if you're seeing any kind of early cracks around the consumer. I understand the backlog is abnormally high but just looking for any evidence that the tone is changing. Thanks.
Bob Fishman:
Yes, I will use the word cracks because I think right now in dealing with the channel, they're doing everything they can to fulfill their obligations to their customers within this year's pool season. I think if you look at the historical data points, interest rates, housing starts, et cetera, et cetera. I think you're seeing the signs of what could be a tightening and a desire tightening from the Fed that's going to have a slowdown to the overall residential impacts, Jeff. And I'm anticipating that and I think that'll play out in 2023. I don't think there's going to be a steep decline, though, because we didn't -- we don't have these housing starts like we did in ’06 and ’07. I mean, housing starts are still at historical levels right now. And they're trying to work through their supply constraints to deliver that. And it's not in my view a bubble, it's just ultimately the fulfillment of what's needed to satisfy the movement to the warm weather state. So I think we're in pool and in residential water treatment, we're skewed towards the aftermarket, and the replacement industry significantly. And the new housing starts are moderated in the sense that they're about where they were historically. And so pools are up a little bit as a percentage of those houses, but they're not up significantly.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hey, good morning, guys. So I think one of the reasons why you guys thought that pool demand would hold up to sort of responding to last question that you have this sort of pent-up demand for renovation, and then eventually sort of more after market demand. Any more color into how you see that evolving given some of the signs that are out there, interest rates, as you talked about, John, and any more color that would be helpful.
John Stauch :
Yes, and I think I’ll take the first part, I'll have Bob, take the second. I mean, as a reminder, the reason we started disclosing the backlog and across the need to stop businesses in Pentair is because the percentage that they became of the overall revenue and the need to do that, under the SEC guidelines, this is a business historically in pool that candidly started every quarter with no backlog, right. So everything has historically been our ability to ship in five days to the end customer through our distribution channel partners, and we would book and fulfill those orders within the same quarter. That's the nature of most of our residential making stock businesses, because you have a distributor that's also holding inventory, we think we're going to get back there at some point. Right now, we do have more demand that we can fulfill because of supply chain constraints. But we're looking every single day and every single quarter at the sell- through rates, and then working with our channel partners to get the right product into the right states, because state by state all those needs, and all those requirements are different for the product sets. And it's a lot of work when you get that pent-up demand. And so we expect that to moderate, meaning that backlog will eventually get to nothing in this area. And then we'll be continuing to meet the day requirements of our channel. And, Bob, I don't know if you want to add anything.
Bob Fishman:
Other than we look forward to that day because there are inefficiencies. Some of the orders in the backlog were put in July and August. And it creates confusion not only for the distributors and dealers but for ourselves in terms of managing an efficient process. So those days are we're looking forward to as backlog comes down and becomes more current. And we drive the business based on orders and shorter lead times.
John Stauch :
And then the other component we look at is actually product value and unit sales. And when you take a look at unit sales over the last two to three years, you see a more normal trend than you do when you reflect on the pricing side and the dollars because we're trying to capture all inflation. So ultimately, I think that we feel like the heater categories we've said often is caught up. And now we have more heaters on the full path. Everything else is generally acting as a more normal sell- through level based upon the pool demand that's out there.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Thanks, John. And then maybe you can update us to give some more color on your transformation. I know it’s in the quarter productivity tailwind was a little bit low. Maybe that's just the inefficiencies in the quarter itself. But obviously, you're in the execution phase now in ‘22 on your transformation. So what are you seeing in terms of your ability to improve sort of the major areas you've talked about? We've already talked about pricing a lot, but sourcing, operations, organizational effectiveness, an update on any of this stuff?
John Stauch :
Yes, I appreciate the question. I mean, I'm excited by transformation. Obviously, I'm the CEO who's driving the initiative, so you would expect him to be excited. But I think we got two things going on. We got a supply chain, and an ops and sourcing and business unit teams that are working every single day just to meet the current demand. And so everything you're generally seeing in 2022 is just reflective of trying to offset inflation. That's not strategic, right. Ultimately, what we're doing with transformation is saying how to each of our business units become world class in their spaces. What's needed to become world class? And then how do we attack those opportunities. So think of the fact that we source out of China. And that's become very challenging from a landed cost perspective, but also the supply chain issue. Think about where we need to put our distribution centers to meet daily demand. Think about our supply base being a supply base that was probably perfect for 15 years ago, but doesn't reflect what we need today, as far as region by region shipments. So there's a lot of opportunity in supply and price as I mentioned. But also, our geographical complexity has been quite challenged by where we do business and where strategically, we should do business. And then we also have the opportunity to enable all that through what I'd call digital interfaces, as Bob mentioned in his remarks, how do we give more self service to customers? How do we solve consumer needs? How do we make it easier for you to do business with Pentair? So transformation is really about transforming. And as I said, it's a lean based methodology, what is our current state? What's our future state vision? And then how do we build the appropriate transformation plan by business unit, to really be world class in the customers’ eyes, not ours, but the customers’ eyes. And all of that we think add shareholder value, significant shareholder value, which we'll be excited to share with you later this year as it relates to ‘23 and beyond targets.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Bryan Blair of Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. You mentioned your revised sales guide is based on 1Q performance and incremental price. If we think about the 9% to 11% range for the full year is the right way to think about that? Now high single digit, maybe pushing 10% price, modest deal contribution, and flattish volume or is there more nuance to that framework?
Bob Fishman:
That is about it, we were seeing the majority of that growth coming from price with a small contribution from volume.
Bryan Blair:
Okay, that's fair. And just to confirm is the outlook still for ROS expansion in both segments for the full year? Or is there a little more potential variance in the outlook now?
Bob Fishman:
No, it would be margin contribution from both segments, again, think of that as price cost doing better as the year progresses, and then driving through in some of these inefficiencies that are in the supply chain. So both segments will benefit with those actions and improve their margins.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones of Stifel.
Adam Farley:
Good morning. This is Adam Farley on for Nathan. I wanted to follow up on the supply chain questions. Could you just give some color on if the supply chain got better, worse or stays about the same through the quarter?
John Stauch :
I think you'd have to break into two categories. One is in January and the Omicron out, I would say it got better. I think just like we're increasing our capacity on a linear basis, linearity Q2 versus Q1, Q1 versus Q4. We're seeing our supply chain accelerate there as well. So that's the encouraging part, the discouraging part in Q1 was we got hit by COVID. And I think we're starting off Q2 here with the challenges in China and COVID. And what impact that could have on the port. So every quarter, there's new challenge. But I think if you took those challenges out, it's fair to say that the supply chain is definitely getting better.
Bob Fishman:
I’ll just add a little bit of color. We're off to a nice start here in April.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Scott Graham of Loop Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Yes, hi and good morning. Thanks for taking the question. John, in answering earlier question with things tightening and clouds maybe starting to emerge a little bit on resi some of the indicators are certainly maybe moving the other direction. I'm just wondering if your comment about resi potentially being down in ‘23, if you were just talking about the market or if you were talking about Pentair.
John Stauch :
No, I wasn't talking about either, I mean, 2023 is too far to predict. I mean, I think we are very clear in our full year guidance that we gave in February timeframe that we expect a little bit of channel correction in inventory, correction in the channel towards the end of the year as distributors reset their needs when the supply chain catches up. So that's been in our guide, it's still in our guide, and we are expecting that to happen. If you focus just on the sell-through, there's no slowing of the sell-through right now that we see. And I want to be clear, if you go back historically, we're not at high levels of new home builds, there has been capacity constraints even within that space. But higher interest rates are designed to slow down consumer spending, and consumer house purchases, and I think it would be foolish not to expect that we'll see some more flattish or some slight slowdown. That being said, that isn't a very small part of the overall market, which is North American new housing starts, the overall aftermarket demand, which comes globally, across the entire install base continues to be the opportunity for our residential business. And within there, we've got growing enthusiasm for water treatment, which is helping us on the install base itself. And we also have the growing enthusiasm for more automated and connected solutions, which has been constrained because we don't have the availability of the electronics to fulfill that. So I think there's enough growth legs to continue to go. I'm not, I mean, we're going to get through Q2 and the rest of the year, Scott, before we talk about 2023, but I am in no way shape, or form, or signaling anything related to Pentair, or the industry. I'm just saying that I don't think it's going to continue to be mid-20% growth in residential and perpetuity that will settle down.
Scott Graham:
Yes, I think we all agree with that. Thank you for that. Let me just ask one other question this was a big year for Pentair automation product launches in Pool. Sounds like that maybe not, the rollout is maybe being slowed by the chain a little bit. I'm just wondering if you could shed some light on what the reception of the products are with distributors out there. Is it really positive? Are you really excited and just disappointed that supply chain is slowing you down? Maybe just give us a little color on that? Thanks.
John Stauch :
Yes, I mean, I think first of all in Q2, we got big ones coming in IF3, our new variable speed pump. And we're excited by that because it used more modern technology. And some of that more modern technology is much easier to get than some of the older base technology we had. You're right. I think when your end dealers are busy. They're not always out there trying to sell new technology. And as that starts to become more normal will get people upgrading and selling more of the newer technologies. But right now we're moving to all cloud based solutions. We're moving to better platforms and ease of use for customers. And the only thing that's constraining that longer-term growth is the supply chain, Scott.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Good morning. Hey, can you help me with the little bit with the bridge? And just what you do expect on that inflation number for the year? The one that was $89 million this quarter?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, Steve, we think that's pretty good proxy for the rest of the quarter. So we don't see inflation really moderating. So you could take that $90 million, multiply it by four, and that's a pretty good indication.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, great.
John Stauch :
No, that’s not great. That's a wild, Steve, I know you solved your question, but it's just stunning number, okay.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, sorry. I was saying great. Thanks for the detail. That's patting you guys on the back. So thanks for the details. Obviously, not great for you guys. But and then when it comes to kind of reconciling pool’s performance being their inventories year-over-year were up like 60%, or something like that. How do I reconcile that with your, I know their sales performance is about in line with yours. But how do I kind of reconcile the inventory move with your sales performance? Is that they -what could be the differences there?
John Stauch :
Let me start the first part, there's always a lag, Steve, you know that. I would say build inventory had and we're then fulfilling their sell-through and a lag position and I think that lag is even more exasperated now because as I said earlier, five days lead times have moved into 90 and 120 lead times. So and that's the result of the overall supply chain. So we feel right now on a dollar basis on the sell-through versus where the inventory levels are, we're about back to historical levels. I think that will always vary in a season like Q2 where nobody can be caught without the appropriate demand, or the inventory to meet the demand. And then that'll start to moderate or start to get fixed in Q3 and Q4, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then just one more question for you. What is the price you expect in the second half, or just basically tell us what you expect in the second quarter? And then we can obviously back into the second half.
John Stauch :
I mean, we think price will be higher in Q2 than Q1, primarily because we're still working through some of the backlog issues in Q1. So that's just on the natural pricing, it'll go higher. And then we've raised prices even higher than we anticipated this year. And so you could expect the price contribution sequentially in Q3 and Q4 to be higher than it will be in Q2.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Matthew Shaffer:
Hi, how's it going, guys? This Matthew Shaffer for Julian Mitchell's team on. I am curious, so stocks been under pressure, any reason management is not set up buybacks? Is that just through the deal or will management not buying back for the next two quarters, should prices remain at similar levels?
John Stauch :
You should assume we were not allowed to be in the market at all due to the working on the deal and the quiet periods associated with that.
Matthew Shaffer:
Okay, great. And then, so the Q2 guide implies that it's over 50% sequential incremental. I'm curious how confident you are in that guide? And how should we think about Q2 guide by division?
Bob Fishman:
Q2 is typically our biggest quarter, we're confident in the guide.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Yes, hi. Thanks for all the answers. John, just to return to a subject you talked about before, obviously, new housing severely under built and maybe not that big within the mix. How do you think about normal volatility as consumer on the repair and replace and upgrade side? There's a lot more options. You mentioned an automation as a lot more attractive offerings. But how do you think about volatility as consumers cycle up and down within that space? And then I'll just ask my second one right now, any indications from your restaurant customers on their propensity to spend, given the same overriding concerns of the consumer? Thank you.
John Stauch :
Yes, I mean, I think I believe that the desires of existing homeowners are to improve their overall experiences within their home. And as new and newer opportunities come along to do that they do. The reason the replacement cycle works is once you have a pool, for instance, you want to keep it running, you don't want to turn it into a pond, and you're going to keep the overall non-discretionary maintenance cycle going. I mean, I think your more discretionary purchases, do I need automation? Do I need an automated pool or not. And I think that always varies depending on the abilities of those consumers to spend, or to have discretionary income to spend. One of the things associated with a pool market is it tends to be higher economic, wealth individuals, and they tend to be in communities that neighbor has something and then that becomes the awareness, and then you generally go off and do the same thing. For water treatment, I do think that one cycle is more up and down based upon need, and ability to spend, because that is a more varied economic group purchasing with water treatment. So we tend to see the remodeling, replacement of whole home water treatment turned into be more of a break and fix and/or to get it working good enough for the time being, and then figure it out later. So I think if we're going to see an impact, we'll see it a little bit more on the water treatment side. And so that being said, that's more of a 90% to 95% aftermarket, replacement business today, than it is what we've seen in cool.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay, that’s helpful. And just any thoughts on restaurants spend?
John Stauch :
Yes, I mean, I think we continue to see with the traffic and the demand in that space, we continue to see things pick up. I think where I was making my comments earlier, I don't think I could give you a global answer on that at the moment that's been consistent because all three regions have faced COVID at different times. So while we see North America pick up as we have in the US domestically right now, there is a little bit of slowing in Europe and a little bit of slowing in China relative to where they are on their COVID journey. There are no further question at this time, and I would like to turn the call over to John Stauch for closing comments.
John Stauch :
Thank you. And thank you for joining us today, we continue to be inspired about how we are in the business helping to solve some of the biggest environmental challenges of today. And we are focused on engaging our employees and stakeholders while we do it. Whether through our sustainable gas solutions and helping to turn waste into value, or working to reduce the consumption of single use plastic bottles, or increasing energy efficiency through the products we offer. Our products and solutions are helping to make the world a better place. Our work on ESG and social responsibility continues to be on the forefront of how we operate and how we work to make the planet better. We are excited to share more about this in our 2021 Corporate Responsibility report, which we plan to issue by the end of the month. I'm extremely proud of what we have accomplished in this past year, which is a testament to the commitment and dedication of our Pentair employees. Contributions for our various stakeholders and guidance from our board of directors. I look forward to continue our great momentum on ESG as we continue through 2022. We were pleased with the first quarter start, and I'm grateful to all of the Pentair employees who helped deliver it. The first quarter gives us confidence in delivering further growth in 2022. We are building momentum in our transformation processes and combined with our intended closing of Manitowoc Ice. This gives us great confidence in our future. Jay, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you. And thank you for joining us today. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2021 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
James C. Lucas:
Thank you, Stephanie and welcome to Pentair’s fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us today. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter and full year performance as outlined in this morning’s press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K as well as today’s release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair’s website. We will be sure to reserve time for questions-and-answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you please limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure that everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you Jim and good morning everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. We exit 2021 feeling very grateful for the tireless efforts of all of our employees who helped Pentair deliver for our customers and create value for shareholders despite significant inflation and global supply chain challenges. I am humbled and proud of our employees who remained agile and accountable throughout all of 2021. While we faced ongoing supply chain disruptions and inflation that was almost five times higher than during 2020, our 2021 results exceeded our expectations and create momentum heading into 2022. Sales grew over 20% while segment income and adjusted EPS increased over 30% each. Our return on sales expanded 100 basis points for the full year over 18% despite significant inflation pressures. We had another strong year of free cash flow generating over 550 million which represented over 100% conversion to net income. We returned approximately half of our cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases while also funding two strategic acquisitions. We now see dividend increase at the end of last year and the first quarter dividend in 2022 will mark Pentair’s 46th consecutive year of increasing dividends. We are especially proud of this record as we are in a small and distinguished group of companies who can say that. Our balance sheet ended the year in excellent shape and is poised to be deployed to drive additional shareholder value. We are introducing Q1 and full year 2022 guidance today which Bob will highlight in more detail later in the call. For 2022 we're looking for continued sales, income, and earnings growth as well as further margin expansion. While Q1 faces a tough comparison to last year through the largest price versus cost impact and continued disruptions caused by COVID-19, our full year outlook remains optimistic and we believe our businesses are well positioned to create further value for shareholders. Our residential businesses served mainly the installed base. We estimate Pentair’s overall exposure to new residential construction is roughly 10% of the entire company. Our pool business benefits from a large installed base, movement to more autonomous and more energy efficient pools, and favorable population migration trends. Our water treatment business has built momentum on the residential side with smarter, connected solutions while our more profitable commercial business has recovered nicely despite restaurant traffic still not back to 2019 levels. Finally, our industrial business has exited 2021 with continued growth in orders and backlog particularly in our food and beverage and sustainable gas businesses. Overall we believe we are well positioned entering the new year although we recognize that disruptions from COVID-19 are impacting the global supply chain as we start 2022. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled ESG priorities are integrated with business strategy. Since becoming a pure play sustainability focused company about four years ago we have been focused on integrating our ESG priorities with our business strategy. We believe this supports our efforts in cultivating a long-term value proposition for Pentair. It is the right thing to do, it is good business, and this is tied to what our employees, customers, and shareholders value. Sustainability is more than an initiative at Pentair, it is core to how we operate. At Pentair we are united in our belief that our products and actions are making a difference. We are providing clean safe water to millions of people while eliminating plastic bottles that are harming our environment. Our products help people use less chemicals and detergents in their lives through our water treatment solutions. We have many products that help reduce carbon based electricity needs through variable speed pumps and LED lighting, and we're building a growing business for capturing CO2 gas for reuse. We believe our solutions help make the most of life's most essential resources. We're also focused on decreasing our carbon and water footprint with energy efficient processes and bottle free facilities. In 2021 we established four more goals to reduce Pentair’s Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions and water withdrawals. We're driving inclusive and diverse workforce and leadership team. As a member of the CEO action for diversity inclusion coalition, leading our organization forward on diversity inclusion efforts is a priority and I am proud of the work we are doing in this regard that contributes to us being an employer of choice. We're also working to build a more sustainable supply chain yet continue to make progress while we are navigating global supply chain disruptions. Finally, we believe we've always had strong governance practices and we remain focused on ensuring that these are the best practices. We have strong diversity on our Board of Directors and we also have strong Board oversight at ESG. We recognize that our work will never be done but we believe we are focused on the right priorities and we will continue to engage with our stakeholders on focus areas where we can improve. Please turn to slide 6 labeled building a track record of consistent growth. As we highlighted during our Investor Day last June we believe we are well on our way to establishing a track record of consistent growth. We believe that we are in the right spaces for the future. Global water awareness is increasing and we serve large and stable end markets. In fact, our two largest businesses, pool and water treatment are serving sectors that when combined are nearly 40 billion sized and are growing faster than GDP. Growing the core is not just about top line improvement but continued income growth and margin expansion. We know we must focus on all elements of growth and we believe we are better aligned on this focus today more than at any time in Pentair’s history. Over the last few years we've been investing in building our brand, our digital capabilities, and our innovation in our smart and sustainable solutions. We have successfully rebranded Pelican acquired in 2019 to Pentair Water Solutions, the water treatment space and we believe we are delivering compelling and consistent messaging across all consumer touch points to generate awareness and provide consumer confidence in our solutions and expertise. We recently launched a new home water platform on Pentair.com to empower consumers to learn, shop, purchase, and gain service and support on our website. We improved consumer engagement with multiple digital properties which is web, app, social, and digital ads to optimize customer journeys and deliver consistent, differentiated brand messaging across all platforms. We saw double-digit increases last year to new visitors to pentair.com, in fact this increased engagement has led to a substantial number of leads in our pool business. While we're a leader in pool equipment today we must continue to invest to maintain and improve our position with customers and consumers. Major part of our effort is around building an effortless pool ecosystem. We not only strive to have the most reliable products in the pool industry, but we are also focused on providing the best information about pool ownership and we believe we offered the highest level of training and education of anyone through the professional channel. We're also increasing our services offerings in many of our businesses. The acquisition of KBI last year brought service capabilities to our commercial water treatment business and helps us create end-to-end solutions for our customers. We are also focused on expanding services within pool and are developing network to easily connect homes to the appropriate partnered service provider to take care of their needs in a proactive improvement situation. We're also developing more connected products that provide information about the performance of the equipment that will enable our channel partners to quickly react to the needs of the consumer. When we talk about strategic growth initiatives to accelerate the top line, just about prioritizing, sequencing, and resourcing the critical few ideas that we can deliver to our customers while also driving shareholder value. This is primarily around investments at our leading pool and water treatment businesses, there are other opportunities such as our sustainable gas business in industrial and flow technologies. We're focused in two areas today biogas and carbon capture. Our technology helps capture and purify both CO2 and biomethane in addition to capturing excess CO2 created at the manufacturing processes that can be purified and reused. We're also driving transformation to both unlock value and to fund growth. In 2021 we launched and committed resources to drive transformation across Pentair. This is a multi-year initiative to transform how we do business and how we serve our customers. We're focused on four transformational areas; pricing, sourcing, operations, and organizational effectiveness. Last year was all about completing our planning and assessment phase and we're moving to the implementation phase in 2022. Pricing, sourcing, and operations are big opportunities to drive our gross margin improvement while we expect organizational effectiveness should help drive efficiencies across Pentair. We believe that transformation will be an important contributor to our goal of greater than 300 basis points of margin improvement by 2025 in addition to helping fund our strategic growth initiatives. Finally, we believe our balance sheet provides flexibility to our long-term value opportunity. Pentair has been a consistent cash flow generator and we've built a successful track record of disciplined capital deployment. We ended 2021 with our balance sheet levered at only one times which is below our targeted leverage. This balance sheet flexibility allows us to fund acquisitions in our key growth areas which is KBI in water treatment and [indiscernible] pool which we completed during 2021. We believe that we are well positioned to continue delivering consistent growth and we look forward to updating you on our journey. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail after which I'll provide an update on our overall strategic position. Bob?
Bob P. Fishman:
Thank you John. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Pentair’s sales performance. I will also be discussing Slide 8 to help frame how we exited the year in context to our full year performance. Fourth quarter sales grew 24% with core sales increasing 19%. Consumer solutions core sales growth was 23% and industrial and flow technologies delivered core sales growth of 13%. For the full year, sales grew 25% with core sales growing 21%. Consumer solutions delivered 30% core sales growth and industrial and flow technologies saw core sales growth of 9%. We were encouraged to see price read out the strongest of the year in the fourth quarter. Nearly half of the price for the year came through in the fourth quarter. We have discussed all year the multiple price increases we implemented across all of our businesses and the fact that there has been a delay in some of the price reading out given the strong backlogs we have carried throughout the year. We believe that fourth quarter demonstrates our ability to have priced readout and we expect that momentum carried over into the new year. For the fourth quarter segment income grew 18% while return on sales declined 80 basis points. The margin degradation reflects further acceleration in inflation in addition to the lower margin contribution of last year's acquisitions. We would note that we experienced inflation in the fourth quarter that was double what occurred for all of 2020. Adjusted EPS grew 24% in the quarter. For the full year segment income grew 33% and return on sales expanded 100 basis points to 18.2%. Adjusted EPS increased 36% for the year to $3.40. Our tax rate ended the year at 15% and our share count was 167.5 million. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Q4 2021 consumer solutions performance. In addition to the fourth quarter performance for consumer solutions I will also be referencing the full year performance on Slide 10. Consumer solutions grew sales 31% in the fourth quarter with pool sales increasing 35% and water treatment up 23%. For the full year consumer solutions grew 34% with pool up 40% for the year and water treatment increasing 24%. Growth was fairly consistent throughout the year and this has been due to the hard work of the teams to meet record demand while facing significant supply chain disruptions throughout the year. The pool industry has received a great amount of attention the past couple of years with the acceleration of demand where already positive industry dynamics have grown stronger. Pools have become enhancements to residential properties and are desirable features that new home buyers are searching for in their future homes. The population migration to warmer climates is another positive trend for the industry as homeowners are looking to add pools to existing homes or purchase new homes with pools in warm weather states. We believe that signs continue to be strong for pool growth to continue not only in 2022 but well into the future. Channel inventories ended the year approaching levels more in line with historical levels. There are still some product lines and geographies however where title [ph] inventory levels are not back to normalized levels. Our pool team did a great job beating robust demand while managing supply chain disruptions and expanding capacity at the same time. We have also developed capabilities to enhance our ability to better procure products and improve a smoother delivery for our customers. We completed the Pleatco acquisition during the quarter and this adds to pools aftermarket capability. Pool made great progress in improving its customer service capabilities and we believe that continues to be a differentiator for our leading pool business not only with industry dealers but increasingly with consumers. We saw strong growth across all product categories and we believe that pool exited the year better positioned to save the ongoing supply challenges in order to continue meeting strong industry demand. Water treatment saw continued growth in residential and further improvement in commercial. Within residential we saw growth across all channels and within our legacy tanks and valves businesses. While the teams were battling inflation and supply chain challenges throughout the year, we continued to invest in the future. With Rocean being integrated into Pentair at the beginning of 2021, we made great progress in commercializing the first product that is expected to be launched this year. We are excited about the innovation that Rocean brings to consumers around point-of-use countertop technology and we look forward to updating you on the progress of the launch as the year progresses. The recovery in our commercial business continued but industry traffic is still not back to 2019 levels. We continued to focus on the integration of KBI and the creation of an end-to-end solution for our customers that has generated an increasing amount of interest. By offering both products and services, we believe our commercial business is better positioned to benefit from continued recovery in the industry in addition to benefiting from new customers that are showing interest in our solutions. For the fourth quarter, consumer solutions grew income 10%, while ROS declined 410 basis points. The margin decline is due to three areas
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Good morning guys. John you talked in the past about construction moderating replacement and accelerating, you have talked about dealers having back up in the second half of the year in pool so you basically have visibility into the end of the year at this point in pool and I think you mentioned channel inventories are more normalized but not completely normal. So can you give us more color there and then why wouldn’t price be a big number for pool in 2022 so pool revenue can be at or higher than that in Consumer Solution guidance of mid to high single digits?
John L. Stauch:
Yeah, I will take the first part and I will let Bob chip in here. Yeah, I mean we're exiting the year with a pretty lofty backlog and while inventory in the channel have moderated to more normal levels, we're still seeing strong sell-through, and we're still chasing our backlog and trying to work it down. So you see that impact in Q1 and Q2. As we think about the year, the way the full year will play out, most of the dealers will take stock of where they are sometime around the Q3 quarter and then assess what the 2023 outlook looks like and then adjust either inventory or their purchasing desires as they head into the 2023 full year. So we have visibility that we feel like there's pent-up demand, but we won't know exactly how that's going to play out in Q3, Q4 next year until we get through Q2. Bob, do you want to add the pricing comment?
Bob P. Fishman:
Yeah, we expect pool will have another strong year after growing 17% two years ago and 14% [ph] last year. We expect significant growth again from pool. We want to be realistic in our guidance and not get ahead of ourselves. COVID continues to be a challenge, but we do expect a strong full year led by price.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Got it, guys that's helpful. And then can you give us a little more color into the implied margin that you're assuming for 2022 for both of your segments, I know you mentioned the acquisitions diluting some solutions inflation pressure, but are you assuming flat to down margin in consumer, then can you sustain the strong incremental margins you achieved in the second half of the year in IF&T?
John L. Stauch:
So to answer the question, overall for Pentair, the guidance that we've given has the ROS expanding to 19% from the 18.2% that we finished 2021 with. So up 80 basis points after being up 100 basis points and very much in line with what we discussed at our Analyst Day earlier in 2021. We would be disappointed if Consumer Solutions did not expand its ROS for 2022 and certainly we see continued momentum with -- from IFT. So again, helped by price/cost favorability for the year and the transformation activities, but both of the segments will expand margins.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Helpful Bob, thanks.
Bob P. Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Robert Jamieson:
Hey, good morning. This is Rob Jamieson on for Joe. I just want to quickly touch on like inventories. So it looks like there's a little bit of build in the quarter here. Is that just trying to get yourself set up where you can help meet demand for 2022, just wondering if you could provide some color there?
John L. Stauch:
A little bit of the build is acquisition related around Pleatco and KBI. The rest is us setting ourselves up for the higher demand in 2022. Overall, days on hand very much in line with what we've seen historically.
Robert Jamieson:
Okay. And then sorry if I missed this, but what's the pool growth embedded in your guidance for the full year, do you have any breakdown between new versus replacement?
John L. Stauch:
We've given guidance for Consumer Solutions of mid-to-high single-digits. So you can extrapolate from that what you're saying full might be. And I would say that water treatment will continue to have another good year, but we've given guidance at the Consumer Solutions level.
Robert Jamieson:
Okay, that's great. And then if I can just sneak one more in. I appreciate the sustainable gas update that you provided. It sounds like that business is performing well. I just wondered if you could kind of talk about the growth opportunity there. We've seen a lot of corporations come out with like carbon reduction, carbon neutral initiatives for 2020, 2030, 2050. I'm not looking for guidance, but just how should we think about that growth opportunity for you going forward like in the medium term, do you think that should help you accelerate it, what are your thoughts there?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I mean, we grew that business roughly 20% last year, and we would think that we can continue to grow spend as we look into 2022 and beyond. Clearly, all of those initiatives are creating an opportunity for us to participate in quotes and activity. And we're really encouraged about what the potential front log and backlog could look like in this business.
Robert Jamieson:
That’s great. Thanks so much.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Michael Halloran:
Hi, good morning gentlemen.
John L. Stauch:
Hey, good morning.
Michael Halloran:
Thanks. So could you just talk through some of the competitive dynamics in the pool space right now, I think different players are deciding to go with price increases at different times, handling backlog change it differently and capacity onboarding differently. So maybe just kind of sink all those things together, talk about how Pentair is doing in the marketplace, and also layer in some capacity commentary in there, if you don't mind?
Bob P. Fishman:
Yes, maybe I'll start with that one, then let John add to it. Obviously, the demand has been strong within the pool business. Backlogs were up significantly in most of last year and coming into this year. We -- as we looked at the backlog last year, wanted to honor the commitments that we made to our customers. That loyalty was important and will serve us very well in the future. When we look at the backlog entering the year, that backlog has been repriced and will read out fully in the second quarter. So we think we struck the right balance around dealing with the higher orders and the backlog. That repricing of the backlog will help us with a strong second quarter and it's not lost on us that our Q1 started below the guidance, the consensus that was out there, and that's because price does not fully read out in the first quarter and inflation remains high. The good news from our perspective is that Q2 will rebound quickly, and so we're not asking for investors to wait for the back half of the year. You'll see a strong first half from Pentair as that backlog reprices in the second quarter. That would be my response to your question. John, is there anything that you'd want to add?
John L. Stauch:
No, Mike, I think Bob answered that.
Michael Halloran:
Great. And then second question, just on the complexity reduction initiatives in IFT, where do we stand and as far as that journey goes and what are the next steps as you look forward from here?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I think we've made tremendous progress, and I want to compliment the team. I mean you know this business well, Mike. I mean these are 100-year-old brands or 100-year plus brands, right? So there's a lot of SKUs and a lot of part numbers, and they've been doing a really good job of reducing and trying to aggregate into more common buys and more common part numbers and products. So I'm excited about where we have progressed from to. But that being said, there's still so much substantial opportunity in front of us, just the way that we think about our global supply chains, think about the way that we bring a product through distribution. And I'm really excited about the momentum, but I'm more excited about the opportunity.
Michael Halloran:
Appreciate it, thank you.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hey, good morning guys. So just back on price, how should we think about price in the guide, I mean, I think you got five points in 2021 and maybe it looks like a mirror image in 2022, but just how much price is kind of built in?
Bob P. Fishman:
The best way to think about it is the growth guidance that we gave is primarily price. So price is a significant impact to our overall revenue growth. A little bit of acquisitions, but primarily price.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay. And then just on supply chain, can you maybe just speak versus third quarter, what you see is starting to get better or stabilizing and what's still may be most challenging?
John L. Stauch:
I'll start and I'll have Bob chip in. I mean, I'm actually proud of the fact that we made sequential progress every year or every quarter within 2021, which means we expanded our capability and processes. So we still got the same global supply shortages that everybody else is dealing with. And we're still balancing around the freight disruptions and needs about getting the product to the right locations at the right time. And I think the team has done a great job of moving through all that. As we started 2022, COVID reared its ugly head again in the form of Omicron, and we saw some fee and rates increase in our factories for the first time in a very long time, but we also saw those same increases across the entire global supply chain. And so I think as we think about it getting better, which it is better now, we still have to think that we're not through this, and we need to be cautious and realistic about what Q1 could look like.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay, thanks guys.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John L. Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Just a question on some of the volume. It sounds like volume is roughly flat in the guidance with Bob your commentary there that it's primarily priced a little bit of acquisitions. I know you talked about expecting new construction to moderate a little bit. Can you talk about which pieces of the business that you're thinking are going to see volume growth and which pieces are likely to see some modest volume declines?
Bob P. Fishman:
Yes. I mean, I think it's prudent to enter 2022, still optimistic and excited about the contributions that we're making, especially in water treatment, residential integration flow, and pool across the residential channel. And I think if we were thinking about the first half versus second half, we think we had volume price and acquisition contribution in the first half. And I think we have a little bit of volume moderating as far as the thoughts around the new housing builds and/or the way the channel reacts to those expectations for 2023. So while we still feel really good about where these markets are going, I think it's prelim at this stage to assume that we'll see a little bit of moderating in the back half of the year as it relates to people taking stock on the 2023 build season.
Nathan Jones:
I guess that's reasonable. So a little bit of just caution on the back half given some uncertainty there at the moment. Second question I wanted to ask was one of your prepared comments, John, you said you were looking to build a more sustainable supply chain. Can you talk about what that means to Pentair and how you measure those things to try and ensure a more sustainable supply chain?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. So, we are spending one of our top transformation initiatives is sourcing. And like many other companies, our global sourcing, just the whole entire supply chain is from 10 to 15 years ago. And you can see that there's been more of a demand in the United States with more onshoring. And we've got to make sure that our supply chain is related to the lead times that we need for our customers and is optimized, which is not just a cost issue, but it's a total landed and total end-to-end cost as well as making sure it has the right availability. So you can measure through our less expansion, and you can assume that as far as our transformation initiatives over the next several years, we believe sourcing is a significant contributor to that expansion.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, thanks for taking my questions.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Kudos on the strong quarter. I guess a couple of questions just again around the guidance. Q1 revenue guidance, it's only a bit ahead of revenue growth outlook for the full year. Comps obviously are going to be much tougher for you in the second half, but are you expecting to kind of maintain positive growth year-on-year through 2022, is Q1 kind of in the high water mark here, just how should we be thinking about seasonality in 2022?
Bob P. Fishman:
That's -- that part is what's encouraging about our guidance as we see growth throughout the year, even as we bump up against those tougher comparisons in Q3 and Q4. Obviously, it helps having the stronger price that's built in and the price reading out fully in the second quarter. But overall, pretty good balance. We mentioned that there'd be 50% of our EPS in the first half of the year and the remaining 50% in the back half. That's more in line with historical norms. John touched on the fact that we've given realistic guidance, that we've not gotten ahead of ourselves on volume for the back half. But hopefully, we'll be pleasantly surprised there with the positive trends that we talked about in our prepared remarks. So our view is that we'll have a very strong and balanced 2022, then we will enter 2023 with lots of momentum around demand and also the transformation.
John L. Stauch:
And the only thing I'll add to Bob's comments because I think he answered that very well is Q2 is historically our strongest quarter. And we think 2022, that is how it will play out again.
Brian Lee:
Alright, that's super helpful. And then I guess, just shifting to the profitability. I know you alluded to this a few times throughout the call, but segment income is flat in Q1, you are expecting EPS and income growth to be ahead of revenue for the year off of 19%. And I think you've quantified kind of the price, but there's a few other moving parts that gets you kind of that leverage as you move through the year. Can you give us a little bit more quantification outside of price as to what some of the big levers are to get earnings and income growth above revenue for the year and for that ROS to get to that 19% expansion level? Thanks guys.
John L. Stauch:
The expansion in margin from the 18.2 [ph] that we did in 2021 to 19 will be primarily us being ahead from a price cost perspective. So overall, we feel very confident that price will exceed inflation for the year, that will help expand margins. And then the transformation, we talked about pricing opportunities, sourcing, operations, and then organizational efficiencies that we would drive. 2021 was very much a planning year for transformation, we're moving into the execution phase in 2022, and that's going to significantly help our ROS expansion as well.
Brian Lee:
Alright, thanks a lot guys.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
Thanks, good morning guys. Certainly you can offer a little more color on Pleatco integration and how Pleatco is performing relative to your deal model in the early stages, I think you had framed something in the range of $100 million of revenue and ROS approaching 20%, is that still the outlook?
John L. Stauch:
Pleatco is performing very well. It was included in our -- for a couple of months in our Q4 results. Very strong aftermarket business, great cultural fit with our full business, and very much in line with the numbers that you talked about. So for us, just a great strategic acquisition and performing very well.
Bryan Blair:
I appreciate the detail. As a follow-up, is there any nuance or anything unusual in how the asset is being managed? I believe it's about two thirds pool, some more B2C alignments and one third industrial filtration, more B2B type exposure, just curious how you are managing that now being in the consolidated portfolio?
John L. Stauch:
Really, we talked about -- you are right in terms of the two third, one third split, and we talked about the filtration business fitting nicely with our IFT portfolio in terms of that one third. So really, not operating it much differently than how Pleatco ran it. They have a separate manufacturing facility in Louisville, both factories are running well. And again, they benefit from having -- being part of our consumer solutions portfolio and also our IFT. So really no significant difference from how that business was run in the past.
Bob P. Fishman:
Yes. It's being run as -- the unit itself has been run the same way in the past, and then we're score keeping the IFT related revenue in IFT and the pool related revenue in Consumer Solutions.
Bryan Blair:
Understood, makes sense. Thanks again.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone. Impressive growth in pool for 2021 and also your -- the implied guidance there. So like seeing that. Just a couple of cleanup questions on pool, just -- this got discussed last quarter, but just to verify, there was no early buy this quarter, it was not needed, and just what's your perspective on that?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I mean, there was a modest early buy to what we'd call the non-warm weather states Deane, but it was managed very, very modestly in the extent that we're just positioning them to have the inventory they need for their particular business when it ramps up in Q2. And obviously, not running the program was really more about that we're still in catch-up mode from backlog, and it made little sense to put more backlog on top of existing backlog. So I think as we head into next year, we're planning that we'll have some level of that as we take stock at the way the channel may or may not need to position itself for 2023.
Deane Dray:
Good. And as a resident of one of those non-warm weather states, I appreciate your comments about the migration trend that's happening into warmer states. So that would suggest the demand will be there, but how about the capacity either dealer pool build capacity, do you think that will take time, is that increasing in proportion, or will that take some time to read out?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. As Bob was saying, I mean, the channel has historically and we think it played out exactly this way in 2021 as well, puts their energy towards the new pools and then begins when that starts to moderate moves to the remodel pools and then get serious about the aftermarket upgrade opportunity. So it's generally worked in those three tiers. That's why we're excited that as it moderates the new pool builds, we get that focus again on getting those variable speed pumps, the LED, the more autonomous pools back into either the remodeled pool or the aftermarket upgrade side to the service channel. So this is a great industry. It's a great set of products and we want to come back to what I'd call a more normalized pattern, which gives us that better predictability to manage our supply chain more efficiently.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then just last one for me is we have seen -- already seen this earnings season of companies giving what constitutes lower first quarter guidance and certainly effects of price costs is and inflation, Omicron, et cetera, it's sector-wide. So we're really not surprised to see that. But I did like seeing a point estimate in your guidance, which suggest there's pretty good visibility for you to give that -- to be that specific. So just maybe talk about the visibility for the first quarter, where -- how is January, how did that readout, and that would all be helpful.
Bob P. Fishman:
Let me take that one. It was important for us to indicate that 50% of our EPS would come in the first half in line with historical norms. We have strong headlights into the second quarter, primarily because of the repricing of the backlog. We will have that benefit in the second quarter more fully. So the improvement in the second quarter is driven by price. Our view is that inflation will continue to be high, but we'll get better in the second half of the year. So we've not gotten ahead of ourselves with regards to inflation. So good headlights into our Q1 and Q2. January, for us, was to be honest, a little bit slower because of the COVID-19 impact on our suppliers and on our own production facilities. So good news is we've seen improvements in the last week or so, and we're wrapping up to achieve our commitment. But we did see a slower start in January, and that's one of the reasons why we've been able to then have better headlights into the second quarter.
Deane Dray:
That’s completely understandable. Thank you.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Graham with Loop Capital Markets. Mr. Graham, go ahead. Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning. Just on that 80% of the pool business, that's -- you identified as being remodel, what did that grow in 2021 in total?
John L. Stauch:
North of double digits.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, I think that's pretty clear. I guess a little more specifically, did it grow above the aquatics average?
John L. Stauch:
No, it didn't. I mean it was a significant contributor to the 40-ish percent growth that pool had but we saw the new pool increase if you think of that 20% and you think about what size that was up, it would probably be like half and half contribution from each of those two quadrants. But Steve, I was also saying, though, there's an aftermarket and there's the remodel, right. So the remodel piece is the best opportunity to talk to the homeowner around the upgrades because you're replastering the pool or you're doing some other types of things that allow you to add more penetration. And then the third element is really more of the service and/or the break and fix piece. And we think there's an opportunity to upgrade the channel in the break and fix that was kind of not focused on in 2021. And that's where we think the upside is on the aftermarket side.
Steve Tusa:
And so just to be clear, you guys are guiding like the pool business volume to be like down low singles for the year 2021? Just trying to kind of…
John L. Stauch:
We're not down, Steve. I mean, because we see a pretty strong Q1, Q2, and then we feel like we've got the price in the back half of the year. And right now, we're being cautious about where the dealers and distributors, but we repositioning their inventory levels as they look into 2023. And I think what's captured in this particular guide is the most realistic case of assuming that there will be some type of pause as they reset and look forward to what they're going to do in 2023. And I think it is very important that we don't get ahead of ourselves and anticipate that growth continues, and then we're here talking at the end of the year about adjustments in the channel in Q3 and Q4.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, that's totally fair. You've been -- you talked a lot about your opportunity. I mean, are you saying that you think that the -- let's call it the non-new construction, everything not new pool construction, the consumer spending on like everything but new construction in pools will be kind of your addressable market, I would call it that, that will be kind of flattish and that you'll outperform because you'll be able to kind of execute on these opportunities we're talking about, is that the way to think about it?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I don't think that's a bad way to think about it. I think we believe, we see the thrusts to the new pools being finished, right. And there's still going to be -- we think new pool demand continues to increase. As we head into 2023 we think the market will continue to reposition the labor to serve the remodel side and then we'll move into the aftermarket side of the equation. And then Steve, not to really confuse you, but I think we see product lines like heaters moderate, which has been a huge product line growth play for us, right. As people moved into those stage and extended their season there was a big heater penetration. And then we think things more on the autonomous -- the automation, chlorinators, those types of things start to see more penetration and accelerating and those two things start to offset each other.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, awesome. Great color, appreciate it. Thank you.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.
Brett Linzey:
Thank you. Good morning all. Wanted to come back to the price and repricing, obviously, outsize versus history, given the operating backdrop get that. Are those actions -- or are you seeing some surgical surcharges around logistics, I'm just thinking, if we do see a pullback here in commodities or other inflationary pressures, do you see some of that price recede or what's been the historical precedent there?
John L. Stauch:
We are focused on list. So what Bob is sharing with you is list price increases. And ultimately, we care most about realized prices, right. So we don't want to just raise list pricing and then negotiate it away. So we believe that we're in -- what we're sharing with you today is our realistic view of what we're going to realize in 2022.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, got it. And then consumer, very strong pricing in Q4 10 points. Is that actual like-for-like price or is part of that mix up on the higher ASP, given the industry shift from single speed to variable speed or is that just simply all pure price?
John L. Stauch:
That is price.
Brett Linzey:
So there's no mix. Okay. Great. And then just last one, if I could sneak one in here. Just in regards to the DOE efficiency change over last year, a fairly significant step-up in the cost of the replacement pump as we enter the selling season. Do you guys see or expect any negative demand response there to those higher prices or do you actually think the ASP starts to gradually come down as that becomes the base offering, any thoughts there?
John L. Stauch:
No, I think we think that, that continues to be the heartbeat of the pool pad. It is where people are -- you need that product to run your pool and there's been a significant interest level as upgrading. And even in within 2022, we're launching a new version of that, which is even smarter than the current version, and we think we'll continue to see the interest level there from the trade channel and the consumers.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch:
It lasts longer, it's better. And it's ultimately chosen because of its variable speed and the energy efficiency, but it's just a better overall product.
Brett Linzey:
Makes sense. Okay, thanks a lot. Appreciate the color.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Hey, good morning guys. John, I want to follow up on Steve's question regarding kind of the remodel versus replacement dynamic. So everything outside the new in the pool space, what's kind of the typical level of visibility that you would have I would guess in remodel because break and fix sort of implies that you don't see it coming. What do you normally have at this time of the year, like maybe some context on what you have this year because it just doesn't seem very consumer-like to plan the stuff out too, too far in advance, but I get that maybe there's some deferrals or lack of availability from last year, so like how does that look and how would you kind of numerically score it?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I mean the pool season plays out through Q3. So it starts in Q4 and it goes up to Q3 of 2022 as an example. And we feel like we've got really good visibility and we partnered really well on that particular part. There's the dynamics of how they do against the volume discounts and rebates that go into that Q3 buy. And then we start all over again in Q4 of 2023. And we're not signaling anything other than we have great visibility this year, and we're pausing as we think about working with the channel to see what they see for 2023. What gets confusing is, it's the same dealers who do the news, it's the same dealers that do the remodel, and most of those same dealers also do service. So it's where they spend and focus their time that we're always working with them. So we see their visibility thereby, but we want to be a little bit more surgical on where they're spending the time and then give them the tools and capability to begin to work with consumers on getting those upgrades on the aftermarket pads.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And then dealers are obviously very integral to the business kind of across the various product lines. Any place where you're watching for bottlenecks on kind of the installer side, so not a Pentair employee per se, but you're kind of further down the chain where the industry just can't grow faster because there's not enough warm bodies turning wrenches?
John L. Stauch:
Well, we've seen it this year. I mean it's not just the labor, it's also the supply ability of all the products that go into the pool around the pool, right. And it's getting better. I think the supply chain is better, so it's probably taking a little less time to build those pools. But that's delayed the remodel efforts, which has then delayed some of the aftermarket efforts. So I think this is going to be a great pool season and I think we're going to continue to see the sustained demand into 2023. I just think right now, we're making sure that we call 2022 pool season accurately. And then we'll deal with 2023 when we're done with 2022.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Alright, appreciate it. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We have reached the allotted time for questions. I would like to turn it back over to John Stauch for closing.
John L. Stauch:
Thanks, Stephanie and thank you for joining us today. We have delivered on commitments in 2021 whether measured by sales, income, EPS, cash flow, or ROIC. The good news is we believe there's still significantly more value to deliver at Pentair. It is becoming a pure-play sustainability-focused company in 2018. We have been building a track record of consistent growth, while also driving our commitment to creating long-term shareholder value. We are proud of our pool business, but Pentair is more than just a pool equipment provider. Our water treatment, Flow and Industrial Solutions offerings are all proving to be sustained value contributors within our portfolio. When we combine our growth momentum with our transformation efforts and our balance sheet, I'm excited about the future value creation opportunities for our shareholders. Stephanie, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please hold the line.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2021 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thank you, Stephanie, and welcome to Pentair’s third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, we will provide details on our third quarter performance as outlined in this morning’s press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today’s release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair’s website. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4, titled executive summary. I’d like to thank – start by thanking our Pentair teams for delivering outstanding third quarter in the face of unprecedented material shortages and inflation. We were pleased to once again, deliver strong double-digit sales and EPS gains. While it was easy to focus on the supply chain and inflation challenges that we all currently face. It is also important to appreciate how strong 2021 has been for Pentair. Year-to-date we’ve delivered 25% sales growth, nearly 40% segment income growth. We’ve expanded margins 170 basis points, and grown EPS 40%. We have said that we view our businesses as more seasonal than cyclical and our robust backlogs give us further confidence in our ability to continue our strong momentum in Q4 and into 2022. In addition to the strong sales and earnings growth, we have generated over $500 million of free cash flow this year. And our balance sheet is strong. We ended a quarter under one-time levered, and I am especially proud of our 19% ROIC. We have completed two acquisitions this year, that further advance our strategy. We acquired KBI earlier this year, that added commercial services capabilities to our growing water treatment business. We recently completed the Pleatco acquisition that brings strong aftermarket filtration products, not only to our flagship pool business, but also to our industrial filtration business. Given the strong third quarter performance, we are tightening our full-year guidance range, which Bob will give additional color on shortly. There remains a lot of uncertainty as we end the year, given the ongoing material shortages, logistical challenges and inflation. In fact, we experienced more inflation in the third quarter of 2021 then we did in the full year of 2020. We have gone out with multiple price increases across most of our businesses this year. There’s a lag from when price increases are announced and when we recognize them particularly given our strong sales and backlog growth this year. The good news, however, is we ship strong pricing tailwind entering next year. This has been a great year and we believe we have a lot more runway ahead to become an even stronger company. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled building a track record of consistent growth. We believe our strong performance over the past several quarters reinforces that we are in the right spaces for the future. Our portfolio of industry leading products and now services help consumers move, improve, and enjoy their water in addition to a growing industrial filtration business focused on faster growing niches, such as sustainable gas. We are building a track record of consistent growth. Our residential businesses have enjoyed robust growth and we believe there’s more to come. Our commercial and industrial businesses have been recovering back to 2019 levels and backlogs have been building in these longer cycle businesses. We’re making great progress in building out our strategic growth initiatives. As I mentioned previously, we have completed two acquisitions this year, that furthered our pool and our water treatment strategies. We are also driving transformation to both unlock value and to fund growth. While some of our businesses are further along the journey. We have identified a strong funnel of opportunities to help us become more productive, better serve our customers and drive growth and margin expansion. Our balance sheet is another lever available that offers great flexibility to invest in our core, return cash to share owners and to fund strategic acquisitions. 2021 has been a great year for Pentair, and we believe there’s a lot more yet to come. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail, after which I’ll provide an update on our overall strategic position. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q3 2021 Pentair performance. Third quarter sales grew 21% with core sales increasing 18%. Consumer Solutions grew core sales 26%, and Industrial and Flow Technologies delivered core sales growth of 8%. Segment income was up 28% and return on sales expanded 90 basis points to 18.5%. Adjusted EPS increased 27% to $0.89. Inflation continued to be a significant headwind, but we saw price nearly offset it in the third quarter. Corporate expense was $17 million in the quarter, and our tax rate was 16% in the quarter. Overall, the third quarter was another solid performance across the enterprise. As our teams continued to deliver in the face of material shortages, logistical challenges and inflation. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Q3 2021 Consumer Solutions performance. Consumer Solutions sales growth was 30% as both businesses continued to perform at record levels. Segment income increased 27% while return on sales contracted as price did not fully keep up with a significant inflation headwind. While we have implemented additional price increases, our record backlogs and strong double-digit growth, create a lag from when the price – new prices readout. We believe this creates a tailwind on price entering next year, but inflation does not appear to be moderating. Pool experience sales growth of 32% in the quarter and was up 5% sequentially. The demand in the industry remains strong even as the pool fiscal year ends, an activity begins to moderate. In fact, dealers are booked well into the third quarter of next year, which we anticipate will result in another strong pool season next year. Favorable mortgage rates continued increases in home equity and the ongoing trend of suburban migration are all contributing to robust demand for the industry. We continue to see strong demand for our variable speed pumps as new efficiency regulations drive transition from single speed pumps. The majority of our mix as shifted to variable speed. 2021 has been a good year for new products, including our IntelliBrite, HD Light and higher energy-efficient tiers. We expect next year to be another strong year, including advancements in filtration and continued expansion of connected products. Demand for new pools remain strong with many builders reporting backlogs into the later half of next year. Our record backlog and favorable demographic trends give us increased confidence and momentum as we look to next year. Water treatment delivered 28% sales growth, as residential demand remained robust, and commercial showed strong signs of post-pandemic recovery. We saw our direct-to-consumer business improving leads and closings in several new markets and we continued to evolve our business model. We’ve made great progress in rebranding the business and are also building out our service capabilities. The commercial recovery continued and the integration of KBI is going well. We had a total water management winning the quarter. That was a great example of taking a product sale and adding installation and services with an existing KBI customer. While restaurant foot traffic is still not back to 2019 levels average ticket prices are up and the result has continued improvement in orders and backlog for what has historically been a shorter cycle business. While Consumer Solutions has felt the biggest impact from inflation and material shortages in the short term, we have successfully implemented multiple price increases that are yet to fully readout and strong backlog levels point to anticipated continued growth for the segment. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q3 2021 Industrial and Flow Technologies performance. Industrial and Flow Technologies increased sales 8% in the quarter while segment income grew 23% and return on sales expanded 180 basis points to 14.8%. Residential flow grew at a double-digit rate for the fourth consecutive quarter. This growth was accomplished even in the face of supply chain constraints that are not showing signs of mitigating. Our customers have continued to experience strong sell through, which gives us confidence that we will continue to grow. Price is also beginning to readout further and should a tailwind entering next year. Commercial flow increased sales 6% in the quarter. The focus in commercial flow continues to be on complexity reduction, better price realization, and building out the aftermarket business given the large installed base. Industrial filtration delivered 8% sales growth that once again by recovering the shorter cycle business of food and beverage. We continued to see strong orders and our sustainable gas business had strong backlog growth and a growing order funnel where we experienced an improvement in our win rate. IFT is building momentum on return on sales expansion, and our transformation initiatives coupled with price realization improving, we believe should drive more improvement going forward. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. Free cash flow continued to be a great story, as we have generated over $500 million year-to-date. We have returned $200 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase during 2021. The balance sheet ended the quarter exceptionally strong with leverage remaining under one times. The return on invested capital ended the quarter at 19% a number we are particularly proud of. We had a higher than average amount of cash on hand at the end of the quarter, as we awaited the completion of the Pleatco acquisition, which occurred last week. Our balance sheet gives us a great deal of flexibility to invest in our strategic growth initiatives, both organically and through strategic acquisitions like KBI and Pleatco. Please turn to Slide 10, labeled Q4 and full year 2021 Pentair outlook. We are initiating fourth quarter and updating our full year 2021 guidance. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to grow 15% to 19%. Segment income to grow 16% to 24%, and adjusted EPS to grow 16% to 24% to a range of $0.81 to $0.87. Our forecast reflects ongoing material availability headwinds and higher inflation. For the full year, we expect sales to grow 22% to 23%. Segment income to increase 32% to 34%, and adjusted EPS to grow 34% to 36% to a range of $3.34 to $3.40. In addition to supply chain and logistics challenges, we would also remind investors that the fourth quarter historically incurs a seasonal slowdown for many of our residential businesses, as the weather turns less favorable for outdoor activity, in addition to fewer work days around the holidays. Below the operating line, we continue to expect corporate expense to be around $80 million. We now expect net interest to be around $15 million and our tax rate assumption remains around 16%. We anticipate the share count to be around $167.5 million, both for the quarter and the full year. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $60 million, while depreciation and amortization is anticipated to be about $80 million. We continue to target free cash flow to be greater than net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Stephanie for Q&A. After which, John will have a few closing remarks. Stephanie, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.
Eitan Buchbinder:
Hi, this is Eitan Buchbinder on for Andy. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Eitan Buchbinder:
So inflation in I&FT appears to have been balanced with price in the quarter. Should price cost for the segment inflect positively in Q4? And what is your expectation for price cost positive in Consumer Solutions?
Bob Fishman:
As we said in the prepared remarks, price is reading out nicely, in both of our segments. Unfortunately inflation continues to be a headwind as we look at the fourth quarter. I think that, Consumer Solutions, there’s probably the bigger impact of the margin challenge with the bigger backlog. And the fact that, prices reading out a little bit more slowly in that business. I think we’ll continue to see a challenged margin at least in the fourth quarter. For I&FT they have some really nice productivity improvements. And so margins should continue to improve even though inflation continues to be a challenge.
John Stauch:
The other point I would make is, and you saw a little this in the quarter, despite KBI being a very strategic acquisition, it is a services business, services businesses don’t have the large margin profile. And so it’s not going to have the same margin profiles, Consumer Solutions. So it is slightly dilutive to margins. And as we bring Pleatco in as well, even though it’s a really highly valuable asset and one that we think is going to have great runway in the aftermarket side, it will also have a lower margin profile than Consumer Solutions today. So both of those will be a slight drag on the margins, but on both are various strategic tuck-ins that we think add significant value over the long time.
Eitan Buchbinder:
That’s helpful. Thank you. And you called out improving capacity in pool as supporting results in this quarter as well as in Q2. Where would you say capacity utilization stands now relative to its potential within your existing pool footprint?
John Stauch:
It’s hard to answer that. I mean, I think, we’re not the capacity challenge, right? Our factories have capacity to meet the demand. We’re still working through the supply chain. And as we mentioned in Bob’s remarks, I mean the supply chain is hugely volatile right now. Even when we can get supply, we have to worry about ports. We have to worry about freight. We have to worry about transportation. So, we’ve got a real lumpiness as far as what’s coming in each day and we’re doing the best we can. And the teams are, I’m really proud of the team’s agility to move forward and deliver again, a really solid quarter in the wake of challenged supply chain areas. So, I can’t answer the capacity issue, but we have plenty of capacity lost within our buildings.
Eitan Buchbinder:
Thank you. I’ll pass it along.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hey guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, so sorry. I joined on a couple minutes late, so apologies if you covered this. But in our checks that we’re doing with the pool sector, it seems like price the next year is comfortably in the double digits. I think I saw you guys plus eight or so in consumer. Do you expect that to kind of like be a lagging indicator? You see that kind of going up with what’s currently in the market?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think we, obviously too early to guide on 2022 right now, but given where we are with inflation and, as I said more inflation in Q3 than all of last year combined. And, even though we planned for doubling inflation, we’re in the quadrupling and quintupling range, which is startling, right? And so I do think with the supply chain logistics, we should anticipate that inflation continues to grow in the next year and therefore, we would continue to price to hopefully offset that inflation. And so, yes, I think the ranges that you’re suggesting are more the probable direction.
Joe Giordano:
And if I can sneak in one more just on pool, if you were to categorize your business, I know we talk about like new bills versus retrofits versus just your traditional kind of break and fix. Like, how would you categorize the growth that you’re seeing now? Does anything like in any one of those seem like just way off of, what you would expect or is it kind of balanced across those three verticals there?
John Stauch:
It’s really balanced. I mean, we’re seeing new pool builds, which is obviously driving pool growth. We’re seeing expansion of the pad, as we’ve been mentioned all year, which is driving pool growth and adoption and usage, which is on driving pool growth. So it’s across the spectrum of both new pools and aftermarket consistently.
Joe Giordano:
Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Good morning gentlemen. So on the comments that Bob made about some seasonal slowing, which is normal going in the fourth quarter, just digging on that a little bit, is the thought that you can get pretty normal sequentials across your business units going in the fourth quarter, or is there some sense of any weakening or strengthening demand in any of the two area, any of the areas you sell into or are there areas where the supply chain might be a greater headwind going into the fourth quarter than maybe what you would have saw in the third quarter?
Bob Fishman:
The guide for Q4 from our perspective is roughly flat since sequentially is kind of, how we think about it. We have a little bit of challenges in terms of the seasonality of some of the residential businesses, but to be honest that the backlog is so healthy going into the fourth quarter, that it’s really about the supply chain and the material challenges that we face. So the business continues to be very healthy from a demand and backlog perspective. We are seeing some seasonality in the fourth quarter about residential. It really does come down to the supply chain.
Mike Halloran:
So in other words, there’s nothing long that you’re assuming in guidance versus normal seasonality.
Bob Fishman:
No, nothing, no.
Mike Halloran:
Okay. And then follow-up, balance sheets in a great spot, sub one times levered and so twofold. One, could you just talk about actionability of pipeline, obviously done a couple good deals so far this year, and then secondarily, what would the calculus be to increase, the rate of share buyback at this point?
John Stauch:
Yes. Mike its John, I think without a doubt, you mentioned, I think the funnel is healthy and there’s a lot of M&A activity. While we’re not going to necessarily accomplish everything, I think we want to be active and we want to be focused on our SGI activities. So that’s where we’re at right now. And, if in fact those, the pricing gets too lofty or they’re not the right deals for us, I think we’d lean back into utilizing, the cash on the share buyback side. In addition to our normalized targets that we publish as 150 a year.
Mike Halloran:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Hey guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just a bit of a follow-up on the last one, the revenue guidance for the year is up $15 million at the midpoint for 2021. I guess first question is, does that include Pleatco now and if so, how much are they adding? I think you said $95 million in the press release when you announce the deal. So it does seem like something, maybe falling out or coming down maybe about, $70 million, $80 million, if we’re adding that relative to the original guide. So maybe about, two percentage points, can you help reconcile a bit what’s going on with the guidance there?
John Stauch:
Yes, just to clarify, we have just the complete Pleatco is roughly $20 million of contribution in Q4. So it’s relatively modest, on a full year basis, we think that’s close to a $100 million, but we’re not going to have it this whole quarter. And, it’s about two-thirds pool and it’s about one-third Industrial Filtration that’s where I would share with you what that contribution is. Let’s, as Bob said, we don’t think we see the supply chain ramping up between Q3 and Q4 while there’s still this strong demand. We don’t think it’s prudent to anticipate that we would ship more in Q4, given that there’s holiday seasons that are also, clamoring for the same ports and the same freight routes that we’re trying to get to. So, we’re doing the best we can to sequentially improve every single quarter. And I think we made great progress from last year into Q1 to Q2 to Q3. And now what we’re suggesting is it’s wise to think that we’re flattish in our ability to get product out the door from Q4 to Q3. The seasonality of the businesses, which is normal, is more of our service businesses. The businesses, that go into people’s homes to treat water treatment. And those businesses are seasonal. Not too many people look to do that over the holiday season. And as Bob mentioned, that’s why we usually see a Q3 to Q4 dip in those particular offerings. So normal seasonality with the belief that we’re not going to raise our expectations beyond what we delivered in Q3.
Brian Lee:
Okay, fair enough. And then, I know you don’t want to get into a 2022 guidance and quantifying the pricing here, but can you maybe give us a sense of what recent or anticipated price actions are in terms of timing and then even into early next year. And then, when you think those start to really readout as you say. Thank you guys.
John Stauch:
As we’ve mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have had multiple price increases this year to offset the inflation. We’ll continue to follow that process into next year, where as inflation trends higher, we will pass along that the price of that headwind.
Brian Lee:
That’s fair enough. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.
Saree Boroditsky:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Could you just talk through what you’re seeing from an early order program and how you’re thinking about those deliveries in the fourth quarter versus the first quarter, and then any commentary on what you’re seeing in the channel from an inventory perspective?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. We don’t expect a significant early order program in the fourth quarter. There might be pockets, but at this point, nowhere near the size that it’s been historically.
John Stauch:
Part of that is with the, with the significant backlog we have, it’s not prudent to think about adding more to it. So, we worked with our channel partners around, certain stocking areas differently than we worked with our channel partners around where they already had significant demands on us. And we were just trying to meet those demands. So that’s the point that I want to make sure that we emphasize that program is usually a level of the factories. And there’s no need to do that since we’re trying to be full out on the supply chain right now.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks. That’s helpful. And obviously you’ve had strong sales in the quarter, and it talked a lot about the supply chain headwinds. Could you quantify any loss sales that occurred in the third quarter or that you expect to occur in the fourth quarter? That’s being pushed out to 2022?
John Stauch:
I would suggest that, the incremental backlog over last year that we’ve now reported would be the gap that we’re trying to get through. Right? I mean, we have typical backlog businesses, and then we have more book and ship businesses, and then the book and ship businesses, which is primarily the residential. We’re not able to get everything out that our customers want every quarter. And so we start the quarter off and in a backlog situation, continue to add orders to it, ship as much as we can. And then we’re still having those rich backlogs, which are a combination of demand and the inability of the supply chain to meet that demand.
Saree Boroditsky:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Bryan Blair:
So that sort of follow up on Joe’s question, I guess, to ask more directly, is there anything that you can see today? Are there any meaningful watch items that would prevent pool from posting solid growth again next year?
Bob Fishman:
No.
Bryan Blair:
All right. No, that’s what I wanted to hear. And it looks like Pleatco, essentially paid for by your second half cash flow. So that’s a pretty good setup. Is there anything you can offer, in 2022 base case outlook growth rate relative to the $95 million ROS level. Anything else that would help us to gauge, a reasonable accretion range for year one?
Bob Fishman:
Again, we’re not in a position today to provide the 2022 guidance, but what we do have a number of tailwinds in place, we talked about that the strong backlog on entering the year. We’ve also is as you’d expect with the supply chain challenges, having the number of inefficiencies this year and that’ll help the P&L. And then probably most importantly, the transformation initiative that we talked about should be a tailwind as well for 2022.
John Stauch:
Yes, and just Pleatco specifically, which you asked, just think about it roughly a $100 million of revenue give or take and around and think about roughly 20% and a little bit of interest headwind given the fact that most that’s cash and you can get yourself into, what you think accretion might be, obviously we’ll be doing some integration work, which will offset that slightly, but that gives you a general direction of that asset.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. Appreciate the detail. Thanks again.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital.
Jeff Hammond:
Hi, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Jeff.
Bob Fishman:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
I noticed in both businesses you got, productivity was in the green, and I’m just wondering, what’s driving that just given all the crosscurrents and headwinds on supply chain that would be, I guess, eating into that.
John Stauch:
Operating leverage, I mean, these are some pretty significant growth rates, Jeff, and when you leverage your fixed costs factories, and generally what’s been, a very productive, variable labor and fixed cost labor, the factories, that’s where we’re getting that productivity front.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on, a lot of questions on kind of price in the next year. And I think he has mentioned how substantial the carryover is, is the thought that that price cost dynamic, it looks like it’s a little bit negative, 3Q and maybe into 4Q, but is there a point where you start to see that flip positive or should we continue to think about, this trend of those being pretty close as the trend into 2022?
John Stauch:
Yes. Jeff, I think, it’s fair to say that when you take a look at the rate that we’re exiting at, from an inflation standpoint, that creates an inflation headwind into Q1, right. And level it off in Q2 and Q3. And that’s where we got to get the incremental price to try to mitigate that. So full year, next year, I think we would feel like we’re in a position to offset it. There might be some lumpiness by quarter, some tailwinds and some headwinds, and that’s what we’re working through.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And have you announced your Jan 1 price increase magnitude?
John Stauch:
No, not yet.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. We’ll stay tuned for that. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
I kind of like tact this a little bit from the gross margin side. So the real inflation started reading through in the third quarter. Gross margins in the first half were a little bit over 36%, about 34.5% in 3Q. Do you expect to be able to get those gross margins back to that kind of 36% range when you’ve offset all of the inflation increases with price, assuming inflation stops going up at some point here. But will there be a – just some of the math of adding the same number to the top and bottom that will keep you below that 36% level that we saw in the first half?
Bob Fishman:
No, that is our goal is to get back to that, as quickly as we can. And certainly, doing better from a price and inflation perspective is important, but also the transformation is a key part of our margin expansion story.
John Stauch:
And Nathan, I’d like to use the opportunity to share that a little bit. I have desires to have a four in front of that gross margin, as we exit the transformation period that we talked about and, most of the levers that we’re pulling, we believe that pricing is a big initiative and we’re leaning into that with outside help more looking at our value-adds and looking at end-to-end costs and trying to think about even our partners cost and how we help mitigate some of the expense. And we agree to that logistics and end-to-end freight costs are pretty sizeable, not just for us, but for our partners. So, how do we get after that with price? Second one, sourcing, how do we lean in on sourcing, and really I’m looking at global supply chains on a total landed cost basis, and make sure we’re making the best choices and SKU rationalization is a big enabler there as well. The third one is the manufacturing and distribution footprint, I think the distribution one gives us a big opportunity. And the fourth one is the organizational enablement. And that’s really about making sure that as we find new channels, new adjacencies, we’re getting productivity from the old way of doing things to fund the new way that we want to do things. And so those are the four big pillars of transformation. We made a lot of progress and we hope to create tailwinds to 2022 from those initiatives.
Nathan Jones:
I was actually going to ask about the transformation initiatives next. I know when you announced these things back in June, there was a period of planning that needed to be gone through in order to finalize what exactly you needed to do. Can you talk about where you are in that process and when you should really start to see the benefits in these things?
John Stauch:
Yes, really rich funnel, and I’m really proud of the way the teams drove the brainstorming, the ideation around what we could do and should do. And ultimately the opportunity is significant. And I want to make sure we set those targets against those new gross margin levels that you mentioned, because we have gone slightly backwards here, which means we have more that we have to go get. And then we also have to look at it pre-inflation, currently in the inflation environment and post-inflation to make sure that these are really contributing to the end state of Pentair. So really pleased with the progress and the team. And as I mentioned, we expect it to start contributing in 2022.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Your next question is from Ryan Connors with Boenning & Scatter.
Ryan Connors:
Boenning & Scattergood is the name of our firm. Thank you. So, yes, I don’t want to jump across the valley prematurely here. But obviously, we’ve seen what a difference a year can make. So kind of a big picture, structural question around price costs. You’ve gotten a lot of price to pass all this stuff through. So let’s just say hypothetically the fed does tap the brakes early next year. Inflation pretty quickly comes down. Some of your raws go down, your freight goes down. How should we think about price in that scenario? Do you keep a lot of that price and that scenario and realize the margin upside, at least for a while, or, and how long could that be, or do you think that the competitive dynamics and that kind of a scenario would dictate that the price has given back pretty quickly? And I know that the answer might differ by business, but just interested in your perspective on it from that kind of point of view?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, the way I look at it is that, if you think of that decision tree, you take that scenario, or do you take the scenario where the inflation continues to go forward? I’m going to choose the one where inflation continues to grow, because if that happens and we’re out in front, because we’ve been trying to catch up on price all year long, but if we can get out on the front of it, then the worst case scenario is that we start to turn back pricing to our channel, to basically reflect the lower inflation rate that we have. That’s an easier mitigation strategy than trying to get new price in an area where people are anticipating the inflationary pressures to subside. So, I think those, that’s the scenario planning that we’re going through, which is why we’re not ready to share 2022 with yet, but I’m going to lean towards that. We think inflation and supply chain challenges continue. And the worst case scenario is we dial back from there.
Ryan Connors:
Okay. But then in terms of different businesses, I mean, which would be the ones where, based on the competitive dynamics, you think you could hold price and, which are the ones where you think would be a little more competitive and they give-back would be quicker?
John Stauch:
Well, I mean, we’ve always said that we’ve got three general business models at Pentair, and our manufacturing build the stock, make the stock that goes through dealer distributors are the most responsive to inflationary pressures and price increases normally. This year is literally unique in the sense that we’ve had these large backlogs and it’s hard. We’re not going to go back and reprice backlog, right? So there’s a little timing delay related to that backlog. Another business model we have is project-based and you’ve got to predict where your price increases need to be to reflect the inflationary pressures that are out there, six to nine months in advance. And that’s always the hardest to get, right. Especially in these environments. And then the third one would be more OEM or larger customer base business models where, again, you’re in a process of negotiation and before those price increases go in, you got to get both sides to agree on what that partnership looks like. It’s those are the three basic premises. And so obviously the make to stock a little easier, most normal times the project, you have to be more careful and the OEM system negotiation of ensuring that everybody got the best productivity in the cycle.
Ryan Connors:
Got it. No, that’s really helpful perspective. Thanks for your time.
Operator:
Your next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for the informative responses and I’m sorry for one more on price cost, but it’s obviously a hot topic and I’m just curious on a couple of things. Is the volatility and variability in the supply chain getting more predictable? I mean, can you get your hands around what the end points might be on, where it is or is it still kind of unpredictable in the next year? Have you changed the way you price? You just mentioned not repricing the backlog, which I understand if you changed the way you, the way the cadence or anything else about the way you do pricing for more inflationary environments?
Bob Fishman:
The headlights into the business on material challenges and inflation, could continue to really be a challenge. I would say, getting the material and that we need to drive the demand that we’re seeing is as much a challenge in Q4 is it, as it was in Q3. Inflation continues to trend higher and maybe a little bit more visibility on that, but not a whole lot better in Q4 than Q3.
John Stauch:
Yes. I think that this has taken our entire skill set, which is one of the reasons I want outside help on this. When you think you’ve got the raw materials side, right, which I think we’ve got closer to more accurate throughout the year, the surprises have been more on the freight and logistics cost of the availability and oils continuing to be volatile right now. And then there’s actually a cost of the routes. So that’s been a little trickier to get right. And then, I think when you get into these ranges, it’s retraining everybody that these are the appropriate coverage ranges because these are not ranges in price increases that we’ve historically sought. So it’s been a journey and a lot of learning’s, and I think we’re getting better at it, and I’m really proud of the way the teams are leaning in.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then just for clarification, when you’re looking at, sold through into dealers are taking orders in 3Q et cetera, I want assumes volume is up next year then, right. I guess maybe that’s partly the ability of what you can deliver and then price ought to be up what mid-high singles, sorry if that’s going too far and I’ll stop there.
John Stauch:
It is going a little too far. I mean, I think we’re not ready yet to commit to anything next year, other than we do believe that demand is relatively strong. We do believe that inflation is going to continue and we do believe we got to put price increases out there to cover inflation and not just the raw materials I mentioned, but covering the freight, covering the raw material and also covering anticipated wage inflation as well. So that’s the work we’re going through right now. And we want to get as close to accurate as possible.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Trish Gorman:
Hey, good morning guys. This is Trish Gorman on for Julian. So a lot of questions in on price cost, maybe looking at the other side is on productivity. I know you guys have made some investments here and you got the transformation savings coming and it’s stuff that nicely in Q3. So just wondering how we should think about this kind of moving forward, is this Q3 rates sustainable or does it step up further from here?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, as John mentioned, a lot of the productivity improvements that we’ve seen in Q3, and we’ll see in Q4 related to the operating leverage as 2022 plays out, it’s really seeing some of the benefits around the pricing, the sourcing that the manufacturing and distribution efficiencies and the organization as John described it. So those would continue to be that the levers as we move into 2022.
Trish Gorman:
Okay, great. And then just at the Investor Day, as you’ve talked about some of higher investment spending to support these strategic growth initiatives, just wondering if you can give us an update on kind of how that spending has trended to date and what we should expect for that in 2022?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. So then we continue to invest in these throughout 2021. And as we lean into 2022, I think it’s fair to assume that, as I mentioned in the organizational enablement side, that we would expect that some of the traditional ways that we did things would be the funding mechanism for the new ways that we need to do things. So, I don’t see it stepping up significantly from here. And I think we have to find a way to self-fund it as we look into next year and then into 2023.
Trish Gorman:
Great. That’s very helpful. Thanks guys.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Taylor Wade:
Hi, this is Taylor Wade on for Deane Dray. Could you guys just give us a quick update on some of the new IoT product launches and how those have gone and more specifically the app launch in pool?
John Stauch:
Yes. Okay. So, we’re excited. I think, first of all, we’ve got 12 connected solutions out there in the market today, and we’re starting to see the ramping up of the downloads of our applications and use of those products. They cross all of our residential streams from also including R&I flow our small pump lines and as well as our water treatment and our pool applications. So, I think one of the bright spots I’ve seen this year is that we continue to see the automation penetration pool. In addition to the upgrades that we saw across the pad. Well, for new pool builds, and in the aftermarket side, sometimes in the busy seasons, you don’t see people also upgrading to those solutions and so that was very positive. And we started to make progress on our IoT related valves for water treatment, and also our pressure treatment and in our small pumps. So really good progress. And I think we’re getting good feedback on that capability to usage from our channel. And we’re excited about the momentum we were really building. And not to mention that we’ve also got the brew assist, and on the large F&B side within IFT, we’re making great momentum as well as building out our services model for our partners regarding the filtration of the year.
Taylor Wade:
Very cool. And then just getting back to the supply chain, I know you’ve mentioned, resins and motors have been kind of in short supply in the past. Is there more that’s been added to that list and, or where does that stand?
Bob Fishman:
Yes, we would say that, we would add freight and some of the challenges that we mentioned adding to the inflation headwind, but you’re right, that the resins, the electronics those types of products continue to be higher inflation.
John Stauch:
Those chips are what we’re all seeking, right, as products become smarter than you mentioned it with the IoT initiatives. So, we’re not the only company putting an IoT enabled initiatives. Everybody needs chips that goes in our case goes into drives or electronics, which then go into, it becomes sub-components into the assemblies that we’re trying to produce. So that’s where the catch-up in the supply chain really is.
Taylor Wade:
Great. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
John, you mentioned something in your opening remarks about being, a dealer being booked through 3Q of next year. Just wondering if you can unpack that a little bit more and I guess, for mostly replacement oriented business, that’s an awful lot of lead time. Is that just on doing full construction or something may be a bit more discretionary? Like what should we actually like read into that?
Bob Fishman:
Those were – yes, and those were my prepared remarks. So, I will take the, take the lead on this particular question. The dealers booked into Q3 of next year includes, both the new and remodeled pool. So seeing strong demand in those two areas.
John Stauch:
I mean, Josh, similar to the construction industry, the constraint is really labor and or material availability for the larger builds or remodels, right? So that is a longer lead time item than even our equipment. So those demands on the channel are out there, the channels, trying to meet the demands. And we’re trying to then meet the equipment demands of those remodels in the new pool builds.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. Would you still say, kind of the majority of the strength you’re seeing today is on kind of sweeping the pool pad and like the broader upgrade versus the – kind of one for one replacement. Like how would you characterize, even growth in the quarter, if you wanted to break that down that’s the level that you go you guys have.
John Stauch:
Yes, I think it’s a good way to look at it, Josh. I mean, I think, traditionally we would look at the new pool builds is getting an opportunity to expand – do the whole pad. And that’s why we enjoy that new build, the remodels we have that same opportunity, right to talk to the consumers and share with them the possibilities and upgrade that pool pad. And then we always had the break and fix, and you don’t get this type of growth from just break and fix. So the predominance of the incremental demand over what we’ve historically seen, call it mid-to-high single digits is likely penetration into the aftermarket pool pads or into the new pool pads from adding out to the pad.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That’s helpful. Yes, it’s breaking fix, Bob is out there too much with the wenches banging on pool pumps in Florida. Appreciate it. Good color. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Patrick Baumann with JPMorgan.
Patrick Baumann:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just had a – I think so pricing consumer was up high single-digit in the quarter. I think people have asked us every which way, but just want to ask one more time. Like, can that accelerate next year, given kind of what you’re seeing as things exit the year and does it need to accelerate to offset kind of what you’re seeing cost inflation?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think the way to think about it is, when you look at a year-over-year, you have to add what it also increased the previous year. And so, when we think about adding to the price increases next year, I mean, it’s important to realize how inflation is compounded from 2020 and 2021, and then how much more will be added as we go into 2022. So obviously when you look at it year-over-year, it’s a piece, but when you go back and look at the start of this, which for us was Q2 2020 we’ve seen the significant demand and that demand is turned into supply pressures. And then we’ve seen the corresponding inflation across the freight and all the other components here. So, I mean, I’m not going to give an exact answer, because I know everybody’s asked me in every single way, but we’ve got to price appropriately to cover the anticipated inflation that we see coming to us in 2022, but we don’t yet have that number. And when we do we’ll share it, but we’re going to price it appropriately.
Patrick Baumann:
Okay. And can you talk about maybe the competitive landscape in pumps around the variable speed transition? We’ve seen Hayward pitching this midrange product of compliant pumps that’s like lower priced than they’re variable speed, but it’s compliant with the new regs and we’re hoping to gain some share with it. Just curious if you have any thoughts on that and if you’re hearing any customer interest on that type of a product and what your response could be if there was?
John Stauch:
Yes, there are some small markets or some small regions, I should say. Where –a non-variable speed, and we still have a non-variable speed line is appropriate to meet the standards around certain horsepower levels and in certain outputs. So, you’re always going to see a couple of substitutes and a couple small regions, but the truth is most of the energy efficiency standards are driving to a higher level of efficiency. And we all got advance our products, as we try to keep up with sustainability goals and less electricity usage. So that’s where really where the future is. And currently there’s a few small markets or small regions where a substitute could be appropriate.
Patrick Baumann:
Got it. Okay. Thank you. And then last one really quick, if I could fit one more in. Could you size for us kind of the percentage of your business that is like I guess, infrastructure related where you might see some benefit from stimulus, if its moves forward?
John Stauch:
Yes. I’d say, less than a couple of $100 million is what I would say our exposure is where we might see some benefit from some stimulus, so not a large number for Pentair.
Patrick Baumann:
Is that like the muni-pump business or is there something beyond that?
John Stauch:
Yes. It’s the muni-pump business and then possibly the pumps that connect the muni to the subdivisions.
Patrick Baumann:
Got it. Okay. Helpful color. I really appreciate the time. Thanks guys. Good luck.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no additional questions at this time. I would like to turn it back over to John for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you everybody for joining us today. We have delivered on commitments in 2021, whether measured by sales, income, EPS, or cash flow. And the good news is, we believe there’s still more to come for Pentair. And it’s becoming a pure play sustainability focused company in 2018; we have been building a track record of consistent growth while also driving our commitment to creating a longer term shareholder value. We have focused on portfolio and aligned around attractive secular trends, and we believe our strategic growth initiatives should contribute to us growing at rates even faster than the markets we serve. Our focus on transformation should help us not only unlock additional value, but also fund these growth initiatives. Our balance sheet provides us a lot of flexibility and our 19% ROIC demonstrates our focus on being disciplined with our capital. Stephanie, you can conclude the call. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second quarter 2021 Pentair earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks Michelle and welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter performance, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and today's release. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you Jim and good morning everyone. Please turn to slide number four titled Executive Summary. We were pleased to deliver strong second quarter with sales up over 30%, adjusted EPS growth greater than 40% and free cash flow up over $100 million in the first half of the year. I would like to thank our Pentair teams for helping deliver these results, even in the face of unprecedented material shortages and inflation. Our orders continued to grow and our backlog ended the quarter at record levels. We believe our order trajectory gives us increased confidence not only in our ability to growing the second half but it also gives us comfort that the topline momentum we have built the past several quarters will carry over into next year. Our transformation work is on track and we built a strong pipeline of initiatives across the enterprise. Regarding the current inflationary environment, we have implemented further price increases and we expect the price cost gap to further narrow in the second half. Our cash flow remained robust and our balance sheet is in a very solid position. We have a strong M&A pipeline tied to our strategic growth initiatives and we plan to remain disciplined with our capital allocation. We are introducing third quarter guidance and raising our full year expectations once again, which Bob will give more detail on later in the call. Our forecast reflects our expectations that material shortages and inflation are not going away nor will they improve materially. We believe we have better visibility than we have had in the last few quarters and that our proven focus around manufacturing and sourcing gives us the tools to navigate the current environment. We are encouraged to see our commercial and industrial businesses recovering and our residential businesses remaining seasonally strong and as mentioned earlier, our backlog support continued growth. Please turn to slide five labeled Building a Track Record of Consistent Growth. At our June 10th Investor Day, we introduced several targets for 2022 to 2025, including mid single digit sales growth, 300 basis points margin expansion and 10%-plus CAGR for adjusted EPS. Our 2025 targets were based on our guidance as of June 10, which we are raising once again following our strong second quarter performance. Our longer term target provided at Investor Day would now be based off of our revised guidance. We have experienced significant growth since the second half of 2020 and we believe the momentum that we have created will continue into the foreseeable future. We continue to believe that we have a well-positioned portfolio benefiting from many positive secular trends. Our pool business serves a large installed base. Water treatment helps solve water quality issues for residential and commercial customers. And industrial and flow technologies serves some attractive niches like biogas in addition to a large installed base the pumps. While our consumer businesses are seasonal, we do not believe them to be cyclical. Wile our focus is on driving the core to create consistent value creation, we are investing in a few strategic growth initiatives to accelerate the topline. These include getting closer to the consumer in pool, expanding water treatment further into services and biogas and carbon capture within industrial and flow technologies. As we drive transformation more broadly across the entire enterprise, we expect that this will drive both ROS expansion and help fund growth initiatives. Finally, we believe our balance sheet provides a great degree of flexibility to drive further upside, primarily through M&A tied to our strategic growth initiatives. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail, after which I will provide an update on our overall strategic position. Bob?
Bob Fishman:
Thank you John. Please turn to slide six labeled Q2 2021 Pentair Performance. Second quarter sales grew 32% with core sales increasing 28%. Consumer solutions grew core sales nearly 40% and industrial and flow technologies delivered core sales growth of 12% with second consecutive quarter of growth. Segment income was up 40% and return on sales expanded 110 basis points to 18.6%. Adjusted EPS increased 42% to $0.84. Consistent with our guidance, the second quarter did not see price fully offset inflation as we saw higher inflation and we have continued to implement price increases to help offset. The second half should see price cost start to even out, but unprecedented amount of material and wage inflation coupled with robust demand has contributed price reading out at a slower pace. Corporate expense was $26 million in the quarter as we recorded higher levels of compensation expense, given the performance our businesses delivered this year. Our tax rate was 17.4% in the quarter as we now expect the full year tax rate to approximate 16%. This is due primarily to higher levels of North American income as our residential businesses continued to grow at strong double digit levels. Please turn to slide seven labeled Q2 2021 Consumer Solutions Performance. Consumer solutions sales growth was 44% as both businesses delivered strong double digit growth. Segment income increased 48% and return on sales expanded 80 basis points to 24.9%. Consumer solutions experienced significant inflation during the first half as demand continued to grow. Pool experienced sales growth of 50% in the quarter. While we have seen significant growth two quarters in a row to start the year, we believe pool dealers are doing their best to keep up with robust demand. The theme of consumers investing in their backyards continued. The pool team have significantly increased capacity even in the face of material shortages and inflation. Backlog remains at record levels and orders have more than doubled. Even when the record year, we believe the improvement in orders and strong backlog gives us improved visibility that growth will continue looking ahead for next year. The macro trends continued to be favorable and the installed base of pool continues to grow. Demand for new pools remained strong with many builders reporting backlogs into next year. We believe consumers remain committed to enhancing their at-home quality of life and enjoying the pool is a major part of the experience for many consumers. In addition to new pool construction, aftermarket growth remains strong as consumers have used their pools more. Water treatment delivered 35% sales growth as residential demand remains robust and commercial showed strong signs of post-pandemic recovery. Our residential business grew nearly 20% and our commercial business grew sales by over 40%, excluding the contribution from KBI in the quarter. Overall, we believe consumer solutions is well-positioned to deliver continued double digit growth in the second half based on strong order and backlog trends. We expect price to read out further in the second half and close the gap on the higher inflation experienced in the first half. Please turn to slide eight labeled Q2 2021 Industrial and Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial and flow technologies increased sales 17% in the quarter and its end-markets further recovered and the business continued to execute its strategy. Segment income increased 30% and return on sales expanded 160 basis points to 15.7%. Residential flow grew at a double digit rate for the third consecutive quarter. Orders continued to exceed sales and we expect the seasonal business to end the year well-positioned within all of its channels. Commercial flow increase sales 11% and further built backlog. The commercial recovery has gained momentum with orders continuing to improve. We expect growth to continue for the smaller part of the segment. Industrial filtration delivered 14% sales growth as the short cycle aftermarket showed further signs of improvement, particularly within food and beverage. We experienced double digit increases in both orders and backlog. Industrial and flow technologies remains focused on reducing complexity, selective growth and margin expansion. Please turn to slide nine labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Free cash flow continued to be a great story with over $100 million improvement year-over-year. We generated $340 million of free cash in the first half. We have returned $117 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the first half. We also repaid a $104 million bond that matured during the quarter and paid approximately $80 million to acquire KBI. As we continue to invest our capital wisely, we ended the quarter at just under one times leverage. We are extremely proud and excited to see our return on invested capital exceed 18%. As we look at our cash flow needs going forward, we plan to remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach. We plan to continue working the M&A pipeline and to buyback at least $150 million of our shares this year. Please turn to slide 10 labeled Q3 and Full Year 2021 Pentair Outlook. We are initiating third quarter and updating our full year 2021 guidance. For the quarter, we expect sales to grow 16% to 19%, segment income to grow 18% to 23% and adjusted EPS to grow 16% to 21% to a range of $0.81 to 0.85. Our forecast reflects our expectations that material shortages and inflation are not going away nor will they improve materially. For the full year, we expect sales to grow 21% to 23%, segment income to increase 30% 5o 34% and adjusted EPS to grow 32% to 36% to a range of $3.30 to $3.40. Embedded in our full year sales guidance is anticipated growth in consumer solutions around 30% with pool expected to be up nearly 40% and water treatment up over 20% as commercial is expected to further recover and KBI is expected to contribute in the second half. Also incorporated in the revised guidance is anticipated low double digit growth for industrial and flow technologies. Below the operating line, we expect corporate expense to be around $80 million, given the higher levels of compensation expense in 2021, given the record performance expected this year. We expect corporate expense to go back to more normalized levels next year. We now expect net interest to be in a range of $15 million to $16 million and our tax rate to be around 16%. We anticipate the share count to average between 167 million and 168 million shares for the full year. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $60 million, while depreciation and amortization is anticipated to be around $80 million. We continue to target free cash flow to be greater than or equal to net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Michelle for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Michelle, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Mike Halloran:
Hi. Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. So can you just give some context behind the incremental confidence you are seeing in the pool trajectory from year? Maybe just how far is the backlog stretching out? Maybe a little more details on some of the commentary you getting from the channel? Inventory levels? Any more context would be great.
Bob Fishman:
Well, as said in the prepared remarks, the backlog is at record levels, demand at all time high and remains very strong. We see pool build into next year and beyond. So the metrics around demand are very strong. Certainly with what we see now, we have confidence that the growth will continue for a variety of reasons, everything from second homes being built to people spending more time on in their backyards and a number of different products coming out. So I believe that that will continue. We are confidence into next year. Inventories, they are still catching up. So we are working through that to satisfy our distributors and dealers.
Mike Halloran:
And then, just in that question, how far out is your backlog specifically tracking at this point? Or is it just meeting with what's available in the channel?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Mike, this is John. First of all, we look at the pool season is coming to a completion at the end of September. And then we start the next pool season when we get to October. So our first goal is to get the backlogs and the inventories related to this pool season out. And as Bob mentioned, we feel like we are in a really strong position regarding that. And then we got to work on next year, which we feel is also going to be strong demand. I think another level of confidence is, we have been able to start to attract labor and keep labor in our pool factories which was harder to do three to four months ago. And we are starting to manage the supply chain, the uniqueness because of that, availability product and being able to demonstrate the agility in the factories to get product out to customers. So those are the differences of how we feel. As far as higher confidence, Mike, I think we have always been confident this is a good business and that this is a good demand. But we wanted to make sure we were able to make progress on meeting that demand throughout the year.
Mike Halloran:
That makes a lot of sense. And then on the other side of the business. Just maybe some incremental commentary on the recovery cadence you are seeing in IFT? Sustainability, what customers are saying? How it's tracking versus normal seasonality? Any incremental color there will be great.
Bob Fishman:
Yes. I will start with that one. We were very, very pleased again to see the IFT growth return. The residential piece of the business within flow continues to be strong. The recovery in commercial has also helped the flow business. And then within industrial, food and beverage has been a nice growth area for us. So it continues to grow to be able to guide for the full year low double digit growth for us is exciting after the challenging year last year. And we expect the momentum to continue as well in IFT.
John Stauch:
And Mike I would just add that we saw in our commercial filtration businesses in water treatment finally get back to levels that they saw in 2019. Obviously, it wasn't easy compared to 2020 coming up the dip that we had there. But we are encouraged on those trends and we are encouraged as more restaurants and hotels and hospitality open globally that we will continue to see sequential improvement there.
Mike Halloran:
I appreciate it. Thanks John. Thanks Bob.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano:
Hi guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano:
Can you kind of just talk us through regionally how like, if you had like a scale, one to 10, how crazy pool has been regionally? Are certain markets just more out of whack from a go forward basis? Like I live in New Jersey. So I know Northeast new pool inflation is probably at levels that have been seen before. But can you kind of scale how this is in more traditional markets? And maybe it's more balanced than some of these growth rates might appear when you normalize businesses for like the comps?
John Stauch:
Yes. So we had a couple of things going on this year, as you probably know. One, we had the department of engineering changeover from single speed to variable. So we are already expecting that we are going to see strong growth in that particular product line. And then obviously the acceleration of new pools and remodel pools is really putting a significant demand nationally on that product. And that is the same product generally sold in all of the pool regions. And then state-by-state, you got these disruptions like Texas that has been disruptive for everybody and the fact that all of that aftermarket demand still needs to be satisfied of what happened with the freezes. And then the rest of the markets, I would say that they are just accelerated, meaning that the rate of new builds are consistent across those areas. And then the aftermarket demand replacement cycles or the additive, I want more products in my pad, have been traditionally across the Sunbelt states. So right now, I would say the demand is not easing and we are all trying to catch up with that demand and work through our supply partners to do that.
Joe Giordano:
And if I could just sneak one in and apologies if I missed it in the very beginning. But any update on like timeline of new product introductions from some of these like in-home point-of-view systems like with Rocean?
John Stauch:
Yes. That's our next year product introduction for us as we work to try to get that technology up to speed and then launch that somewhere around the end of the year, the early part of next year with a soft launch and then expect to ramp that up throughout next year.
Joe Giordano:
Great. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Brian Lee:
Hi guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just a follow-up on Joe's question. Just any initial views on the new pool market for 2022? I know it sounds like from listening to other supply chain players, the general expectation is for about 110,000 or so, call it, this year. But wondering if you think that number grows next year? And then with respect to backlog trends, I know you are at record but kind of what sort of visibility can you quantify to any degree you have with builders currently heading into next season?
John Stauch:
I think builds will continue to grow. I think you it's capacity constrained generally by labor and product availability beyond just pool equipment after we do the landscaping in those backyards. So, we continue to think that 2022 will be a robust year there. And then additive to that number, we always have remodels. So the pools that needs to also be done in addition to those new pools. And then where we are really pleased is the penetration rate of the products on the pad and more and more awareness of heaters, automation, salt-based chlorinators, those effects of products are where we have really seen the acceleration. So I think we want to continue to grow from here and we believe that we have right now up enough visibility to feel like 2022 is a growth year.
Brian Lee:
That's fair enough. And just my follow-up on the price increase. You mentioned the latest price increase. Can you give us some quantification around what that level was? When that was implemented? Or when that's going into effect? And then what parts of the portfolio here? If I look at your consumer solutions segment for the back half, it seems like you are implying kind of 20%, 25% year-on-year growth number for the he back half year. How much of that is price? How much of that is volume? I am assuming a lot of that's going through that part of the portfolio here? Thanks guys.
Bob Fishman:
What I will do is just share a little bit of color around price and inflation overall for Pentair. In Q2, price was a two point benefit for us and inflation was quite high, close to five points. As we move into the back half, think of inflation in that by the five to 5.5 point range, so slightly higher but think of price reading out at closer to four points in the back half. So we improve from Q2 and narrow the gap but it continues to be a challenge. And the whole material shortages is a challenge for our ops and supply team and we are really appreciative of all of the work that that team has done. In the second quarter, they really did a nice job helping us drive that 32% sales growth. They did have the luxury of more raw materials sitting in that opening inventory. So as we move into Q3 and Q4, the challenge for the team is really to deal with the lumpiness of the material shortages. So every week is interesting as they plan the production schedule and the team is doing a remarkable job to achieve the numbers that we have guided to.
John Stauch:
And then just to follow-up on your price question. We have three general business models. In our dealer-distributor short-cycle businesses, obviously, it's easier to work with the supply chain and then work with the channel partners to raise price in those areas. They usually get through relatively quickly. Then we have our more OEM related businesses or our larger company programs, which takes time. And then we have got the projects that you quote and you are basically dealing with the cost of inflation until you quote that next set of projects. So that's the other color I bring across those three business models and it all blends to the numbers that Bob shared with you.
Brian Lee:
All right. Thanks guys for all the color. I will pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jeff Hammond:
Hi. Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
So the incrementals in the quarter were certainly better than I thought and I think how you guys started on the June Analyst Day and I think that was a concern. It seems like price is more of a help in the back half. But what kind of surprised you to the better in the second quarter and how should we think about incrementals in the back-half?
John Stauch:
Well, I think we have got some of the IFT productivity that we were expecting and it read out and we feel like that's generally sustained, which was definitely better. And then obviously, when we get more pool product out the door, it generally drives higher levels of margins for Pentair. And we were able to get capacity levels up in pool and we benefited from that.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on, I guess, this view into 2022. Just in the strength here in pool, where do you think some pull-forwards happening or stuff off that maybe isn't repeatable? I know there is good demand trends on new and remodel. But where have you seen maybe the most pull-forward in terms of consumer attitudes?
John Stauch:
Well, I think every single channel partners we have is spending a disproportionate amount of time trying to work with us to get product to the next job there you are doing, right, on the new build side. So when you see increase in the new builds simultaneously with the demand for aftermarket, you are trying to balance those two things at the same time. So I think some of the traditional filter and pump are obvious because every pool pad needs those and they have to be repositioned to where the jobs are and how to get the inventory where you need. And then some of the more nice to haves in the pool that can be deferred and/or added later is really where we think the majority of the backlog is repositioned for next year.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Thanks John.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Bryan Blair:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Bryan Blair:
I was hoping you could offer a little more color on KBI integration and how the service network is influencing your commercial water treatment recovery and process going forward?
John Stauch:
So for us, KBI is really an exciting acquisition for us that closed in the second quarter. We now are able to provide services within the commercial space. It's a business that we can learn from and then leverage to help grow in that area. So really strong start for us in that business and exciting to see the footprint and the opportunity within that area that we really haven't been able to drive into.
Bryan Blair:
That's excellent. And then I think you said 40% total growth for commercial treatment in the quarter. I apologize if I missed it. But did you cite the organic figure?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. The growth for the full year in water treatment, we gave -
John Stauch:
It was 35% in the slides. I think Bob, right, for Q2 and then there is just a modest contribution from KBI in the quarter. And then for the year, in the full year outlook that Bob gave, think of roughly $20 million a quarter for KBI.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. I appreciate that. And then John, -
Bob Fishman:
Yes. the growth that we gave for the second quarter excluded the 40%, excluded the contribution from KBI.
Bryan Blair:
It did, okay. I appreciate the color.
Bob Fishman:
Thank you.
Bryan Blair:
So with that momentum, John, you said over the last couple of quarters that it's unlikely that commercial demand would recover to 2019 levels. With the pace, the momentum you have in the business now, does the changes anything?
John Stauch:
Right. Actually, as I said, we are at 2019 levels now. So we took a dip last year and now we are recovering to modestly growing versus 2019. We do believe that starts to accelerate from here. But we need the rest the world to continue to open. Primarily hospitality would be the one area that is not yet as robust driven by global travel primarily. Once that gets going, I think we feel like we are growing off of 2019 levels again.
Bryan Blair:
That's great. Thanks again guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
I am just going to follow-up on the discussion there on commercial water treatment being back to 2019 levels. I can't imagine that the market is actually back to 2019 levels. So can you talk about where you think you are gaining share in this market? Or what's driving your ability to get back to 2019 levels when I can't imagine that the market could possibly be back to that level yet?
John Stauch:
Yes. It's the spaces that we have a higher participation rate in, Nathan, like quickserve restaurants and also you got gas station service. And those are beverage hotspots as you can imagine. And we participate in both filtering the ice and also filtering the beverage dispensed. So that is a area that has definitely picked up faster than it was in 2019. And the rest of the fullservice restaurants and hospitality have been slow to recover it is but still recovering.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. So your mix is more skewed to stuff that does have a market level back to where it was?
John Stauch:
Yes. We benefit from that, yes, right.
Nathan Jones:
And then a follow-up on that price cost equation as well. Narrowing the gap in the second half, pretty big gap there in the first half. In the unlikely event that we get kind of stable input prices, would you expect to be net price cost positive in 2022 as you make up these deficiencies from 2021?
John Stauch:
Don't know yet. I mean, we definitely have learned a lot about inflation. I mean the sourcing inflation is usually easier predicting and I think we have done a relatively good job on that one. Where I think we have still been playing catch-up this year is labor inflation and the amount the wage increases that occurred throughout the year, Nathan. We are making sure that we are using best practices as we quote the next projects and next year's projects ahead of time. And then were making sure that we keep agility in focus as we think about how to price more effectively on the shorter cycle businesses.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Yes.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ryan Connors with Boenning & Scattergood. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ryan Connors:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a big picture question on sort of the aftermarket opportunity. You alluded earlier to this idea that there are so-called nice to haves on the pool pad that maybe aren't going in right now because of the supply chain constraints. And so my question is, how should we think about the growth of the installed base over a couple of nice years here on new builds? And what that does to the structural aftermarket opportunity in the next several years, three to five years out? I mean, is that meaningful, that expansion in aftermarket? And do you believe that's a good thing from a mix perspective? Can you just give us your thoughts there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean we look at it as, every new pool that goes in is additive to the 5.3 million in-ground pools that exist today. And as people use their pools more and more, the number one thing they look to is the water chemistry of their pools. And then how do they make it more enjoyable and comfortable as an experience. And those things tend to drive higher degrees of automation and consumer awareness and also then lead you to figure out what else you can do to either self manage or self monitor your pool or control heat and/or the other comfort aspects of your pool. So we look it as, all this is good news to build out the long term demand in the channel.
Ryan Connors:
Okay. And then my other one was, just want to get your reaction, there is a lot of the news about this global minimum tax rate and lot of movement on sort of tax rates. And I know you have got the unique jurisdiction as a corporate. So any thoughts there on how that could impact Pentair or not from a tax rate standpoint, depending on how that plays out?
John Stauch:
We are in the process of assessing what the impact would be. It's still too early to really give a perspective. But our early view here is that there would be some upward trip in the tax rate but not significantly higher at this point. And then certainly better than a number of our competitors.
Ryan Connors:
Yes. Okay. Fair enough. Thanks for your time.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Hi. Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John, you mentioned you are excited about how much smart automation in heaters and your really new pool pad products in general are adding to remodel and aftermarket growth. Can you give us a little more color into how much the new upgrades to the pool pad are maybe more secular? Have you invested enough in your sales and product capability to take advantage of this trend? And what do they tell you about the longer term growth potential in pool? How much do you think they could contribute to longer term growth?
John Stauch:
Great question. I mean we have been stuck and the industry is has been stuck and we have been with it somewhere around just modestly in the double digits of automation. And I think just with the recent trends in more mesh networks and getting Wi-Fi into the backyard in a more dependable basis, it creates more opportunities for more automation. You really need awareness and you need people to use the pool with care to really drive that behavioral change. And that's what we are most encouraged by. There is also better technology at great price points that we are participating into to manage and monitor water chemistry. And then to begin to determine what's necessary to balance those water areas. So that's what I am really super excited. We also saw and we shared this openly that as use their pools more, the heater matters. And that was always the nice to haves on the pad on the older builds and I would say most people remodel now they are putting those heaters in, both the spa and for the pool. So we have seen the trends in lighting earlier. We saw the trends working around some of the variable speed pump penetration. We are now starting to see that extend to the other capabilities around the pool. So I think it's a few points of overall pad penetration for the industry over the next several years. And that encourages us and excites us.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And John, I might have missed this is in the prepared remarks. But at your Analyst Day, you had mentioned that you are right in the middle of 12 weeks sprint to come up with ideas to form more of the basis of the transformative plan that you laid out through margin improvement. So maybe you could update us on sort of what sort of ideas have come out of that? Any sort of interesting observations you would make?
John Stauch:
Yes. So my official report out is this Thursday with the executive team and I am looking forward to that set of brainstorming actions. We have engaged a lot of people so that we have got a voice from the broader organization. It's required patience for my part to not jump and know what the answers are. So I am not going to jump out of that. But I have seen the funnel and I have seen a list of ideas and I would say that it's more sizable than I originally thought. And that was about how do we put the programs around it to action them and to think about sequencing them to derive the value from that. But really, really encouraged right now on the participation in the organization and the ideas that are starting to surface.
Bob Fishman:
Yes. This is Bob. And I have probably been a little less patient than John. So I would confirm that the pipeline of opportunities is very robot. A lot of complexity reduction initiatives. There is huge opportunity to drive margin expansion and to really help with those Analyst Day numbers. We said in the prepared remarks that even with a higher guide this year, we are going to go ahead and add on to this year the 300 basis points of margin expansion into the future with where revenue will grow at that mid single digit plus number that that we shared at Analyst Day. So transformation will be a big part of to us achieving those results. And embedded in all of this is ease of doing business with Pentair, so a much, much better situation for our distributors and dealers as well.
Andy Kaplowitz:
I appreciate it guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Hi Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
John, just on some of the inventory commentary out there in distribution or kind of your channel. And sense for what that's like kind of on a normalized basis? Maybe absolute levels versus 2019? I think days on hand were probably pretty well, just given how strong the growth pace is. But if we were to sort of dial that back a little bit or normalize that, would inventory sort of be in the right ZIP Code or would they still be low on an absolute basis?
John Stauch:
Josh, without getting to specific, we are lower than we should be and our customers and channel partners are asking us every single day to pick up the pace and get then more equipment, right. That's the way I would say it. it's exhausting to the plan teams to keep up the demand and the sell-throughs you can articulate from other people's releases and you see that we are trying to do what we can to catch up with it.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And then just touching on the last question that I think got asked on some of the other quantified discretionary stuff. You mentioned heaters. How much were those up relative to rest of the pool business? I would imagine a lot of that is more kind of first fit than necessarily replacement of an existing theater. Is that fair?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mentioned it because we saw that really go into the back half of last year in a broader way, if you recall. And so now when we think about anniversarying the back half, we are still growing on top of those levels which gives us encouragement that these aren't necessarily one-and-done but we are seeing a long term penetration of the product lines.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. I appreciate it all.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Rosenblatt. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Scott Graham:
Good morning John, Bob and Jim. I have questions, a couple of questions about price cost. And I was wondering, Bob, would you be willing to split out the labor piece of the inflation that we saw in the quarter?
Bob Fishman:
Roughly speaking, two-thirds material, one-third labor.
Scott Graham:
And maybe help us maybe understand a little bit on the labor side. So are you talking about increases to the compensation pool for your current employees to retain them because your business unit heads are saying, hey, we are going to lose people. So you kind of got to get more aggressive there? Are these new employee adds? Could you give a little color on that, if you don't mind?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think it's both. I mean when you look at having to add to your labor base, you are confronted with what are the real market dynamics to add. And then you have to go back and you have to make sure that your existing loyal employees are paid at least that, if not more. So it creates a dual impact. One, trying to get the new people and then making sure that your current employee base are well taken care of.
Scott Graham:
Thank you for that. On the productivity, particularly IFT, is that the beginning of some of the reduction in complexity, the $10 million, is there a piece of that in there?
John Stauch:
Yes. There is a big piece of that in there. And I think we are really encouraged with their efforts around that. And we think that that is, that's why Bob also mentioned transformation. I think we learn from certain categories of dullness. We have seen how it reads out in better efficiencies on sourcing and also less complexity for customers. So we are really encouraged by that trend and we expect to bring that across the enterprise in a faster way.
Scott Graham:
Okay. Thank you. Last question is a question you might not be able to answer, but I am just going to shoot anyway. The prices of assets are pretty inflated, speaking of. And we have IFT, which is a business that needs to some fixing to improve the margins there. But it looks like, particularly as of Thursday you are going to have a very clear path to do that. As in acquisitions announced in this space, I would say, in this space in sort of a multi-area just the last couple of days where it affects them about 17 times EBITDA which is your multiple. And I am just assuming that the pool multiple is higher than the IFT multiple embedded within your valuation. Is there any thinking around IFT spinning that off at some point down the line, particularly with asset prices where they are now?
John Stauch:
Yes. Scott, I mean the way I look at it is, I think we have a really good IFT business that continues to demonstrate progress towards its goals. I mean I am really encouraged by the way its growing. Double digit core growth this quarter and starting to build out the order pipeline. And I am also encouraged about its focus, its complexity reduction and its commitment to the margin expansion. Now I am going to get through the transformation work. And I believe that this business has significant margin expansion in front of us. So I believe the course of action is, that's can create value for Pentair, a large part of our portfolio. And then it is a big important part of our portfolio.
Scott Graham:
Got it. Thank you both.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thank you. Good morning everybody. So you have talked on this a couple of times before. But water treatment, we are looking at a really cyclical rebound but a bit less as you have impact from product changes and the solution in residential and commercial. Is that correct? Or is some of the work you are doing underlying will allow this to some of that growth more structural than the nice rebound that we had? And then just maybe just kind of reiterate the timeline of the impact you are seeing from what you are doing there? Thank you.
John Stauch:
Yes. So just within water treatment to remind you, roughly $100 billion pro forma business. We have residential and we have commercial. And the residential has been fairly strong. Little lumpy through COVID with the ability to get in people's houses or not as far as what we are trying to do there. But now it's at a point where I think we have got steady-state growth. If you recall, when commercial happened, there was generally a closure of most restaurants and hospitality and offices where people drink water. And that was a huge step back to our business last Q2. That has slowly been recovering as people return to more of the normal of the way it used to be pre-COVID but we are not yet back globally to where we expect it to be. I think our addition of KBI gives us the ability to have services components on top of products with strategically what we think our customers want and we are very encouraged about the early signs there. So I think we are starting to return and I think we are now in, what I would say, every part of that portfolio growing versus being more residentially led, as it was in last several quarters.
Rob Wertheimer:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Trish Gorman:
Hi. Good morning. This is Trish, on for Julian. So just on free cash flow, it's been very strong year-to-date. Under normal seasonality, I think second half free cash flow represents 50% or 60% of the full year free cash. Should we expect this normal seasonality to occur this year? And maybe if you could just walk us through the moving pieces there for the balance of the year?
Bob Fishman:
Yes. Balance of the year free cash flow remains strong. What's really helping us is, we get off to fast start at the beginning of each quarter that the linearity is very strong. So I expect another strong free cash flow year following last year. And we will continue to drive it over 100% of net income.
Trish Gorman:
Great. And then maybe one more. On IFT, I know you guys have talked about the significant margin expansion opportunities there. But how should we think about inorganic opportunities there? Can you just remind us what end-market or products you might look to increase your exposure to within that segment?
John Stauch:
Yes. So we hinted at Analyst Day. We really right now like the carbon capture and also the sustainable gas parts of that portfolio. And we feel like that we have got a fairly good position there and we would love to continue to scale and also be able to provide the regional partners the solutions they need. We are at the heart of everything we do. We are a membrane focused company. So we like to look into filtration and have opportunities to expand our filtration capabilities as well. And as a reminder, even though we use some of these technologies in the consumer solutions, they initiate those applications in IFT and we cross-pollinate those across both segments. So those are the two areas that I would say are definitely areas of a focus in the IP portfolio.
Trish Gorman:
Okay. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital management. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Dean Tyler:
Hi. This is Dean Tyler, on for Deane.
John Stauch:
Well, hi Tyler, on for Deane.
Dean Tyler:
Sorry if I missed this, but could you discuss some of the supply chain issues that you guys are seeing? Obviously, you mentioned product availability in some of the prepared remarks. But are you seeing other supply chain issues like port congestions or anything there?
John Stauch:
Yes, yes and yes. I mean everything that you are hearing, we are experiencing in some type of inconsistent way, right. So we would say that even though we have had availability of most of the supply we need, it's very inconsistent in its predictability of when and how it's coming, which is forced tremendous agility in our factories to rearrange in a lean way where we put the labor efforts. And sometimes we are producing 75% of the product and then coming back and fishing 25% later, to give you an example. That's why we are very complementary of you teams, as Bob said, because it's required all kinds of different skills to be able to move forward. Main challenges to us are chips, would be drives, would be motors, those would be the areas that are in high demand for the products that we serve.
Dean Tyler:
Great. Thank you for that. And could you guys provide just any updates on some of your new IoT products that have launched recently or planning on launching?
John Stauch:
Yes. So we are excited by that. And I think, first of all, really excited about the momentum we are building in IFT on lot of their IoT enabled services ability. We have launched products on the consumer solutions side that allow you to connect to our Pentair Home app. And we continue to add product capability to give you a better consumer experience. So I would say, most of those been soft launched in 2021 and we will expect accelerate in 2022 and beyond. And then I have to take a plug because I know Deane would be very interested in this, Tyler, is we feel like we are really making some of progress on some smarter filtration technology for pool as well and we are excited as we mentioned at the Analyst Day about the progress on that technology and making pools clearer and more visible and utilizing less chemicals to achieve the same outcomes.
Dean Tyler:
Great. Thank you very much.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And I am showing no further questions and I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stauch for any further remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you Michelle and thank you for joining us today. 2021 is experiencing a phenomenal year of growth and we believe the future continue to bright for Pentair. We believe we have strong business platforms that are industry leaders in their designated spaces. We are in spaces that are growing faster than the overall global markets and are propelled by attractive secular trends. And we have carved out exciting strategic growth priorities in which we have already begun to demonstrate performance. Further, our transformation journey is designed to unlock value that allow us to grow faster than the industries that we participate in and help us to expand margins rapidly by 2025. And finally, our balance sheet is strong and we believe we will continue to get stronger, supporting incremental value creation above and beyond what are base businesses can do on their own with tuck-in M&A. Michelle, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2021 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Stephanie, and welcome to Pentair's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter performance, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4 titled Executive Summary. I would first like to start by thanking the entire Pentair organization and the contributions they have made to help deliver on our commitments to all of our stakeholders. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all of our global channel partners and suppliers for their patience and efforts and working with us and our consumers to meet our commitments despite the effects of decreases in the South, canal blockages, supply chain constraints and, of course, the ongoing pandemic. Building off the momentum from last year, we started 2021 strong, with sales up 22%, adjusted EPS increasing 56% and free cash flow improving significantly from the comparable period last year. Our residential business has led the way as Consumer Solutions experienced a 34% increase in sales. Encouragingly, we saw sales in all three businesses in Industrial & Flow Technologies return to growth for the first time in over a year. We announced the acquisition of Ken's Beverage earlier this week. This is a strategic bolt-on acquisition that provides Pentair a valuable national direct service network to expand our commercial water treatment business. We believe we will be in a position to seamlessly manage the full customer experience from product development, sales, installation and service to ensure the best quality products are matched with the most reliable and dedicated service network for all commercial applications. We believe Ken's provides us a platform to grow from as well as an opportunity to continue to expand our products offered to this important channel. Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape, and we are well positioned to fund organic growth and inorganic growth opportunities and return capital to our shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. With a strong start to the year, we are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.80 to $2.95. While inflation remains high, we have instituted a number of selling price increases across the portfolio that we expect to help mitigate inflation in the second half of the year. The strong start to the year and continued strength in our Residential businesses gives us confidence that we will have another strong year of growth for Pentair. Equally important are the signs of recovery in our commercial and industrial businesses. We plan to continue to invest in our strategic growth initiatives, and we will remain disciplined with our balance sheet. Please turn to Slide five labeled 2021 Execution Expectations. As we highlighted at the end of last year, we understand the importance of delivering the core while we also build our future. The focus has been and will remain on consistently making our commitments. Our actual results for the past three quarters have come in significantly better than our expectations as residential demand has been very strong. While we have experienced robust sales and EPS growth, we have also improved our cash flow and our balance sheet is the strongest it's been in years. Building our future means focusing on the things that are within our control. We look forward to providing more depth on this topic at our June 10 Investor Day. However, this is a continuation of the hard work we have been undertaking for the past several years. It starts with our focus growth initiatives primarily in our Consumer Solutions segment. We are a leader in the pool industry, and we continue to build on our leading position. Investments in this area include automation, smart and connected solutions, energy efficiency offerings and now better filtration solutions. Within water treatment, we have expanded from components into systems and services within both residential and commercial. We have made significant investments in digitally building our brand and expanding our reach. We recently created a transformation office as we embark on the journey to drive growth while being more agile and flexible. Transformation can have many meanings. But to us, it means that we will have the right strategy, organization, leadership and culture while accelerating growth and driving margin expansion by leveraging our internal capabilities and reducing complexity. This is not an either or but a both and. We recognize that we must grow and drive productivity in order to maximize our ability to deliver for customers and create value for shareholders. We plan to continue to accelerate our digital innovation, technology and ESG investments, and we expect to fund many of these initiatives through our complexity reduction efforts. We believe that we are better positioned to deliver consistent growth and margin expansion while also generating strong cash flow. Our goal has been and continues to be delivering consistently for our customers, employees, shareholders and the environment. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail. After which, I'll provide an update on our overall strategic position. Bob?
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q1 2021 Pentair Performance. First quarter sales grew an impressive 22%, with core sales increasing 19%. Consumer Solutions grew in excess of 30%, and Industrial & Flow Technologies returned to growth for the first time in five quarters. Segment income was up nearly 50% as we saw strong drop-through, and return on sales expanded 330 basis points to 19%. Adjusted EPS jumped 56% to $0.81. We saw price and productivity offset inflation in the quarter. This was the third consecutive quarter of strong double-digit sales growth within our residential businesses. But just as encouraging was our commercial and industrial businesses showing sequential improvement and some pockets of growth. We were very pleased with our first quarter performance, and we believe the momentum should continue. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Q1 2021 Consumer Solutions Performance. Consumer Solutions sales growth was 34% as both businesses delivered double-digit growth. Segment income increased 54%, and return on sales expanded 330 basis points to 25.1%. Pool experienced remarkable growth of almost 50% in the first quarter. Traditionally, the first quarter is preparing for the upcoming pool season, but we saw strong demand flow through the channel as we believe pool dealers continue to do their best to keep up with robust demand. The theme of consumers investing in the backyard as part of their home oasis continued. Demand for new pools remained strong as many builders saw bookings well past the current pool season. An already strong pool maintenance space grew only stronger as the freeze earlier this year in the Southern U.S. caused many premature equipment failures due to water freezing within the equipment. Pool has experienced strong double-digit sales growth for three consecutive quarters, and this would not be possible without our operations and supply teams and their ability to continuously increase capacity and execute at historically high-volume levels. We saw strong demand for pumps during the quarter and continued to see broader adoption of our variable speed pumps as a new DOE regulation goes into effect later this year. Demand for heaters remains quite high, and we have significantly increased our production capacity. Water treatment delivered 12% sales growth as residential demand remained robust and the decline in commercial volumes showed further sequential improvement. Within residential products, we saw strong growth in valves, tanks, pitchers and faucets. We experienced strong growth in the U.S., Europe and especially in China. We're in the early stages of integrating Rocean, but we believe the acquisition will greater enhance our product offerings going forward. Within residential services, we continue to experience strong demand and healthy conversion of leads into actual orders. We've made good progress on our journey to become the trusted, nationally branded experience, led in part by our brand transition to Pentair Water Solutions. We are launching a number of new recurring revenue services, including preventative maintenance programs, service bolt-ons for plumbing services, cartridge change-outs and extended warranty programs. We are seeing continued signs of these foundational building blocks coming together, leading to more consistent, predictable growth. We believe that commercial demand is finally finding a bottom and expect comps to get easier going forward. We continue to build a strong new business funnel, particularly for our total water management offerings. We believe the addition of Ken's Beverage will help strengthen these offerings. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q1 2021 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies sales increased 7% in the quarter, led by another quarter of double-digit growth in residential flow, and both commercial flow and industrial filtration encouragingly posted modest growth in the quarter. Segment income increased 12%, and return on sales expanded 60 basis points to 14.5%. Residential flow grew at a double-digit rate for the second consecutive quarter as demand remains strong across residential, irrigation and ag spray. We also experienced strong growth across retail, Pro and OEM channels. Commercial flow returned to growth, with backlog growing for the first time in many quarters. While infrastructure remains soft, we were encouraged by a growing backlog within commercial. We were pleased to see industrial filtration return to growth in the first quarter and improve its backlog both year-over-year and sequentially. While headwinds remain in our longer-cycle businesses due to caution in larger capital investments, we saw solid improvement in short-cycle component demand. Within our food and beverage business, we are beginning to see orders for our beer membrane filtration systems, including a new system for beer stabilization. In addition, we continue to expand our IoT offering with existing beer customers. Finally, we have seen a substantial increase in backlog for our biogas systems. Industrial & Flow Technologies remains focused on reducing complexity, selective growth and margin expansion, and we are encouraged by the improving top and bottom line to start the year. Please turn to Slide 9, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. While the first quarter is historically a period of cash flow usage due to seasonal working capital being built, we were very pleased to see only minimal usage this year and over $150 million year-over-year improvement. This was driven primarily by our pool business and improved linearity. We expect another good year of free cash flow driven by strong demand and continued disciplined working capital management. We ended the quarter at 1.3 times leverage, and our return on invested capital was a strong 16.3%. As we look at our cash flow needs going forward, we have a bond maturing in the second quarter, and we will be paying our quarterly dividend. Beyond that, we will continue to be disciplined in our capital allocation as we continue to work the M&A pipeline, and we continue to have in our plan a buyback of at least $150 million of our shares this year. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled Q2 and Full Year 2021 Pentair Outlook. We are initiating second quarter and updating our full year 2021 guidance. For the second quarter, we expect sales to grow 13% to 16%, segment income to grow 12% to 20% and adjusted EPS to grow 17% to 25% to a range of $0.69 to $0.74. For the full year, we expect sales to grow 6% to 11%, segment income to increase 10% to 16% and adjusted EPS to grow 12% to 18% to a range of $2.80 to $2.95. We continue to work through material shortages and inflation that is impacting the second quarter. We believe that our pricing actions taken in the first half will help mitigate full year inflationary pressures. We have not factored in Ken's Beverage into our forecast as we are awaiting finalization of the transaction. Embedded in our full year sales guidance is anticipated low double-digit growth in Consumer Solutions, with pool expected to be up mid-teens and water treatment up high single digits to low double digits. Within Industrial & Flow Technologies, we expect the top line to be up low-to-mid single digits, with residential above the segment average. While we are experiencing an increase in orders for the short-cycle parts of our commercial and industrial businesses, we have not yet seen larger capital spending materialize. Below the operating line, we expect corporate expense to be around $65 million, net interest to be in a range of $16 million to $18 million, our tax rate to be around 15%, and the share count is expected to average between 167 million and 168 million shares for the full year. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $65 million, while depreciation and amortization is anticipated to be about $80 million. We continue to target free cash flow to be greater than or equal to net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Stephanie for Q&A. After which, John will have a few closing remarks. Stephanie, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John, just focusing on your Q2 guide for a second, I think we all understand that pool was unusually strong in Q1 versus normal seasonality, but is there any reason why pool would be down sequentially in your usually seasonally strongest Q2? How much of a boost did you see from Texas weather-related issues in Q1? Or are you worried at all that supply constraints could get worse? Maybe just give us some more color because for the overall company, you're still forecasting lower year-over-year growth in Q2 than Q1 despite easier comparisons.
John Stauch:
Andy, totally understand. I'm going to have Bob answer that one.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. While we're pleased with the Q2 guide versus the prior year, it's not lost on us that with the demand that we're seeing in the overall business, not just pool, why couldn't we have done as well sequentially versus Q1. We look at that, and we do face some material shortages in key components, resins, motors, circuit boards. And while we have shown an improvement over the last couple of weeks, it is an impact to the second quarter. We're also facing some inflationary pressures in the second quarter. And while we have increased prices, most of that will read out in the back half. So we're doing everything we can to catch up and basically satisfy this increased demand, but there are some supply challenges that we are facing in the second quarter.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Thanks, Bob. And then just focusing maybe on that inflation, it looks like you got a nice uptick in productivity in Q1 and productivity plus prices more than offsetting inflation. It seems you've been able to get over the labor availability issues you talked about in the past. And we know your guidance in the past was for price and productivity to offset inflation, but is it possible for you to actually stay ahead of the inflation despite all these constraints?
Robert Fishman:
That is certainly our goal. Obviously, in the second quarter, we have the inflation challenge. But for the back half of the year, what you just mentioned is our goal. I did want to congratulate the operations team, the supply chain. A lot of the issues that we saw in 2020 as we ramped up production, we really addressed head on and did a nice job. So a lot of that productivity improvement is driving the leverage over a fixed cost base and driving the efficiencies in a really cost-effective manner.
Andy Kaplowitz:
And Bob, you're able to get the labor you need to meet this ramp up?
Robert Fishman:
Labor continues to be a challenge, and it's something that we need to address. It's -- in many places of the business, it's a challenge, to be totally honest. But we -- our guidance should not be impacted by that, but it's certainly on our radar screen.
Andy Kaplowitz:
Appreciate it, guys.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Hey, guys. Good morning and thanks for taking the questions. Great job on the quarter.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Brian Lee:
You alluded to this, John, during the prepared remarks, but can you quantify a bit what your exposure is to Texas? We know it's one of the top three pool markets in the country, but specific to kind of your, I guess, indexing there versus other parts of the country, can you give us some sense? And it sounds like that's driven some near-term demand, just the winter freeze and the fallout of that. But do you see kind of with pool backlogs and how busy dealers are that some of that's even having to push into 2022 for people that are needing to go to their pools in Texas and fix things or outright replace them?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think it's fair to say that there's an industry capacity constraint in overall pool that we're always working to the dealers, the pool builders, the availability of that as it relates to the consumer demand. As far as Texas goes, we did get a little nearer term on some of the break and fix that happened in Q1, but most of that will also be satisfied here in Q2 in the normal course of shipments. What I also alluded to in -- that Texas was more related to material supply chain challenges, and many of the resins are produced in that area of the country. And those -- that capacity is coming back online. It's getting better every day, but that's what Bob was referencing as well. So with that net, I can't call Texas a win for either Q1 or Q2. And I think it just goes into the overall demand being a large pool state that we always serve.
Brian Lee:
Okay. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then I guess, just a second question here and I'll pass it on. Clearly, we've seen a good housing market here. We've seen the new pool number steadily ticking up for the past several years, especially here recently. Can you give us a sense of -- I know you're heavily aftermarket-levered, but percent of new pool mix versus retrofit, how much has that changed here of late? And do you have kind of an expectation on that trend continuing to shift maybe a little bit toward new pool even through the balance of the year and into next year?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. I can take that one. Our mix remains fairly constant
John Stauch:
The new pools are definitely up large on a year-over-year basis, and we still see that trend continuing. But as an overall impact to the business, it's not as beneficial as continuing to build the aftermarket growth and the remodeling growth for us. That being said, every new pool that goes in, we want to convince those consumers and the pool dealers to put all the new content in and make those smart automated pools. And that adds to the aftermarket opportunity later as well.
Brian Lee:
Alright. Thanks a lot, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Hey, Mike.
Mike Halloran:
So just some questions on the guide here, the first one at least. Obviously, good answer to understand why 2Q may be a little bit more muted relative to what 1Q would imply from a pool perspective. But inventories, lean in the channel, I mean, how do you think that plays out through the balance of the year then? I mean it seems like you're implying that there's some pushouts into the second half of the year. Supply chain constraints are kind of rampant throughout the industry. Not like that demand goes away. So maybe just help with some of the cadencing and how you're thinking about the year and what all of these challenges can equate to as you move over the next few quarters, not just 2Q.
Robert Fishman:
In terms of the year, when you look at the -- what we guided for in Q2 and what that implies for the back half, it has slight revenue growth over some pretty big compares. So business did well in the back half last year. So we're pleased to see growth. Can we do better? Potentially. For us, we're also focused on margin. And while we will win the price cost war, there are continuing to be an element of strategic growth investments in the back half that are putting a little bit of a impact on our overall margin expansion. We think it's money well spent that will benefit 2022 and beyond, primarily in the pool space, in the water treatment side, but that does have an effect on our overall margin expansion.
Mike Halloran:
Just a point of clarification on the first part of that. Are you implying pretty normal sequentials from 2Q into the back half of the year on the pool side?
John Stauch:
I think, Mike, we're -- the way I'd say it right now is we're still trying to catch up. I mean the inventory in the channel is relatively low. We've been catching up since last year. We made -- I think you could see that we probably met sell-through demand in Q1. And we've got to do our best in Q2, Q3 and Q4 to catch up with the demand in the channel as well as continue to rebuild those inventory levels.
Mike Halloran:
Thanks for that. And then switching gears to a different part. The more cyclical parts of your business where you've had a few more headwinds, how are you thinking about the recovery curve where you sit here today? Obviously, prepared remarks imply that trends are starting to get a little better. Aren't seeing the bigger stuff yet, but at least we're starting to see some progress. Maybe just some thoughts on that cyclical progression and what level of optimism there is right now.
John Stauch:
Yes. I think the biggest level of optimism we referenced is it's nice to see commercial filtration starting to at least move sequentially better. And I think we said for this particular full year, it's still not going to catch up to where it was, but it is good to see the openings and things starting to drive that commercial filtration space again. So that was encouraging in the quarter. We saw some sell-through better than Q4, and we think that continually sequentially gets better throughout the year. As far as Industrial & Flow, I think we saw more break and fix and certainly, the recovery of some of the break and fix in those spaces. But we also started to see quote activity, order activity and backlog start to really move sequentially, Mike. So I think those are definitely where I was referring to encouraging, and we weren't ready to call that earlier, and I think we're now saying that we're sequentially seeing ourselves come off the bottom in the IFT side.
Mike Halloran:
Good stuff. Appreciate it. Have a good one.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hi, guys. Congrats on the execution in a kind of a challenging supply environment, I guess. Just first of all, what are you assuming for price for the year?
Robert Fishman:
We should see an improvement in price to, call it, 2.5% to 3%. I think earlier in the year, we were probably down in the low 2s. So we are seeing a nice uptick there.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And when is the timing of that increase going in? Is there kind of a -- are there a couple of bites at the apple here? Or are you kind of one and done in the spring? Like what's the timing of the price increases?
John Stauch:
Yes. Steve, I'll take the first part. I'll have Bob give you a little bit more of the details, but we've increased those prices across the board where we're going to. But we're still servicing some backlog on the old pricing that works its way through in Q2. So we don't expect to realize those price increases fully until Q3 and Q4.
Robert Fishman:
Yes, I would agree with that. We'll start to see them, Steve, in Q3.
Steve Tusa:
When are you putting it through, though? Like when would that guy -- when would the guys -- when would the [guide be in] the channel?
John Stauch:
We already have put it through, Steve. But we're still -- people bought -- we're still servicing the backlog, the product that -- yes, we took orders at preprice increases, so we're still servicing that in Q2.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then just on the second half, I mean, it kind of looks to me at the midpoint like you guys are just kind of flat across the board, right, like flat on sales, flat on profits. I mean actually, margins might kind of be a tick lower year-over-year. I mean with that kind of price coming through in the second half, I would think things would be better with that on the margin front. Or is that -- is there just a -- maybe just for the year, give us what the kind of price productivity -- you expect that to be neutral for the year, that kind of price productivity -- sorry, inflation productivity equation? Maybe just give us the annual, what you expect there [Indecipherable] inflation.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. For the back half of the year, so the headwind we are facing is continued higher inflation. But when you look at what we've done with price and the productivity that we're seeing, we will offset the inflationary headwind. So really, what it comes down to is if the higher end of our guidance does show some revenue growth, but the margin expansion is really impacted by the strategic growth investments that we're making in the back half.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. And then one just last one for you. I guess this kind of complexion of the second half, if you're going to be reasonably flat, the toughest comps are obviously in consumer. So if your business is flat, should we think about the IFT business as being up and consumer being down? Is that kind of the right profile for second half?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. For the second half, overall, again, if you take the higher end of guidance, you will see our Consumer Solutions grow. And then IFT, as we mentioned, will grow in the back half and for the full year, which is good to see. The question, I think, we have right now is can we drive have a better back half. And so again, not wanting to get ahead of ourselves, we have the natural demand that continues in many of our businesses. So at this point, I think our guidance is very prudent on the top line. And the question is can we do better.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the details.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Stephen.
Operator:
Your next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
John Stauch:
Hey, Josh Pokrzywinski. Happy Earth Day.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Happy Earth Day, John. Thanks for taking the question. So I guess maybe just to start off here on the pool front. No surprise. Any way to talk about kind of what's happening under the surface with whether it's kind of replacement versus new or wallet share versus like-for-like as -- yes, 50% is a lot of growth. I can appreciate that the last year has been kind of a unique environment, and comps play into it as well. But at the end of the day, I don't know if we've seen that much more kind of utilization in breakage. In theory, the stuff is always kind of out there, spinning around somewhere. Yes, how much of the strength that you're seeing right now kind of speaks to that upsell of the pool pad that you guys have been talking about versus the volume side of the equation?
John Stauch:
Yes. That's a good question, Josh. And it's mostly on the upgrades, candidly. I mean we've got two things happening. We've got the sale of homes in warm weather climates have done really well, right? So we've seen a change and a big push to get to warm weather climates. And I think people are not traveling as much and using their backyard more as their vacation destination spot so they become more aware. Without a doubt, and we shared this, we've seen a lot better penetration than we've ever seen before as people want to extend the season and make sure that their pool water is the temperature that they want. But where we've been excited is we've seen the upgrades around the energy-efficient lighting, the automation and also the self-chlorination and the self-saltwater capability. So the maintenance of the pool side is well, Josh. So it's been a really good situation because the more we made those consumers aware, the more they were able to expand the offering. And we think the more that expands, the more people talk about it, and I think we believe that's a trend that's going to sustain.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe a question or a toss-up between you and Bob on the supply chain element for 2Q. Might be a little hard to answer, but if you guys could get infinite supply, what is that worth? Like how much is that bottlenecking holding back near-term results?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I think we'll tag team that one, Josh. I mean first of all, I just want to thank our supply team, and we've been doing everything we can to just, first and foremost, just try to access material -- and the raw materials that we need. And so I mean, I'm bringing that up because I think we're seeing two things happen. I mean we're doing everything we can to get the volume out. And we're not really spending time on negotiations as much as we're spending time on trying to get the available material, which leads into the inflation issues that Bob referenced earlier. And then Bob will give you the art of possible here.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. Where we started with was the $866 million that we just did in Q1. And with the backlog we're seeing and the demand, the question is why couldn't we see that -- our top end of our guidance is closer to $830 million. So we really view it as in that space, the $30 million to $35 million as the art of the possible if the supply shortage weren't there. Now again, I'll echo John's comments and congratulate the supply team because two weeks ago, that number was double, and they're doing a nice job of improving the allocation that we're getting for those materials. So that's how I view it. Then on top of that is the inflationary headwinds that we're seeing in the second quarter.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That is awesome detail. Really appreciate the color there, guys.
Robert Fishman:
Thanks, Josh.
Operator:
Your next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hey, good morning, everybody.
John Stauch:
Hey, Rob.
Rob Wertheimer:
So a lot of things went right in the quarter. I know managing through this isn't easy. I just wanted a little bit more breakdown on water treatment, which is growing nicely. I don't know if you can characterize or split resi and commercial stabilizing, you said, I think. And just whether you're on a sustainable path there on penetration, et cetera, just talk about the drivers there. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Yes. I appreciate it, Rob. Thank you. I mean I think water treatment has been doing really well and also is residentially exposed. I would say our R&I flow business has also seen a nice pop on the IFT side relative to demand. And obviously, they're being overshadowed by the strength in pool and the success of pool. So it's great to talk about it, Rob. I mean I think we've got several things going on. We've definitely spent a lot of time upgrading our capability around our products to sell to the independent dealer channel. And people are more aware of the water in their home these days, and they're doing things to try to make it better, either to -- either for base reasons or trying to improve the overall benefits regarding their water. So we've got a lot of interest, and we've been expanding our portfolio to be more consumer-friendly. We've also, through the acquisitions that we purchased, through Pelican and RainSoft, have the direct access to the consumer through the affiliate channel and/or building out the services network ourselves. And so thank you for noticing that growth. We feel we're making great progress there, and we're excited. And that's why I'm excited about Ken's. I mean we just now put a services extension on top of our ability to sell products into the foodservice space, where we've always had a nice product offering. And that allows us to create end-to-end solutions, inclusive of the service and the ability to take care of the customer when the customer needs us to show up. So really building out that part of the portfolio, and we really like the momentum, and we're seeing the fruits of the work.
Rob Wertheimer:
Great. Thank you so much.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, guys. So a lot of moving pieces around inflation and supply chain investments. Can you just remind us how you're thinking about incrementals in Consumer Solutions before and how you're thinking about them now, kind of given all that, those moving pieces? Is it same, better or worse?
John Stauch:
It's generally the same, Jeff. We're comfortable in that 35% drop-through, which we actually did in Q1. And it might vary a little bit based upon the price cost squeeze. And then the only thing that's different in the back half of the year is those accelerated investments as Bob mentioned. So that's it. And you might ask why is those investments delayed. It's not like we did anything differently. We're trying to get those people in place and the assets that we're at to, digital, IoT, smart connected solutions, I mean, those are tight labor markets with a lot of people chasing the same skill set. So it's just more of a timing issue to put them in. And then we're also expanding the markets that we're serving. And so that's the investments that we're really talking about in the back half of the year. We think about it as that 35% is drop-through, and then it's only muted by any incremental investment that Bob mention
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Great. And then it seems like the early buy shifted for the industry from 4Q to 1Q. Is that more a function of just the demand environment we're in today? Or do you think this is kind of a new paradigm or a new structure where you kind of persistently do the early buy a little bit later? And just on the $35 million, is that just shift into 3Q as you catch up?
John Stauch:
The answer to the second one is yes. We're hopeful we catch up throughout the quarter. And if we're not, we're expecting that to be early Q3 when we get that supply chain. As Bob said, the supply chain issue is getting better every single day. It's just a matter of how we muted them or mitigated enough to be able to solve it by the end of Q2. As far as the early buy, I mean, just remind you, I mean, this is a seasonable business. It's not necessarily cyclical where we do the early buy in pool. And we're trying to manage our capacity levels. So we're not spiking our labor and then laying the labor off. So we work to trying to fulfill those labor outlets. And basically, when you get this type of demand, there really isn't room for that early buy because you're full out trying to meet the ongoing demand and you're working through that season, Jeff. So you're right. I mean it feels like it didn't necessarily happen, and I would just say that it didn't shift. It just got to the need to sell to the market need.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.
Saree Boroditsky:
Hi, good morning. So just a follow-up on Ken's. Could you provide us with some more detail? You said it's not built in to guidance, but maybe some color on the sales and margins in the business? You talked about the service benefit, but any other commentary on what you're excited about there?
John Stauch:
Yes. I'll let Bob give you the details. I do want to say one more thing. I have had a partnership with Ken's for some time. And Ken is someone we admire in his ability to have worked with his customer set and built intimacy around real needs for foodservice customers and the projects and the services that he provides. And he's built this business over his career, and we're excited that he's going to come and partner with us and be a part of our team and help us expand this. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it's not just growing his service levels, which I think we can do. It's also about them having the insights as to what other products those customers need and expanding our offering beyond just our water treatment that we sell to those customers. So I'm really excited strategically. And some of the best deals take the longest to get to the finish line, and we're just really happy that he trusted us and he's willing to be part of the Pentair family. And Bob, do you want to give the...
Robert Fishman:
Yes. We mentioned in the press release that we spent about $80 million or we'll be spending $80 million for Ken's. Think of that as about 1 times sales. And then from an EPS contribution perspective, it's -- in 2021, it's minimally accretive. We need to invest in the growth platform in that business. We really do believe it's foundational for bigger things in the future. So that's how we're thinking about Ken's contribution in 2021.
Saree Boroditsky:
That's helpful. And then maybe you could just update us on what you're seeing on the foodservice side. We've obviously been hearing some pretty positive comments from the restaurant space as things have opened up. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean the percentages seem exciting, right? And I just want to keep reminding us that we're not anywhere near where we were pre-pandemic levels. But sequentially, as things open up, we're seeing things definitely feel better. And I think sometime in the 2022 time frame, we expect to be back to where we were. While restaurants are opening across the United States, they're a little bit slower to open in Europe. They have been opening very rapidly in China. But we've not yet seen the hospitality play, and that's the one that we'd also like to see, the hotels opening to the levels that they were before. But sequentially, definitely better and working our way toward hopefully getting back to where we were sometime next year.
Saree Boroditsky:
Perfect. Thanks for the call.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hello. Can you hear me? Can you hear me, guys?
John Stauch:
Yes, we can.
Joe Giordano:
So I just wanted to touch on industrial. I mean it's good to see backlog building, and you've made a lot of changes to that business over the last couple of years. Do you feel comfortable that throughout all of that, share is being maintained? Because I feel like just listening to other companies talk, it sounds like a little bit more like spending is coming back. So I know you guys are being cautious here, but just curious to how you feel about share maintenance as you transition that business.
John Stauch:
Yes. So first of all, I'm really proud of Jerome and team for the discipline because, as I said many times, I mean, we could chase growth here with some of the lower-margin projects, and that's not what we want to do. We want to use our configure to order and specification capability to win projects that either meet our margin potential or provide the aftermarket opportunities that we want to invest in. So we're trying to be disciplined. And I don't want to say we're muting because we're focused, and there's a lot of growth to be had around our core capabilities and skill sets. And I think where we have the right to compete and the right to win, that's where we're focusing. And I think that's going to produce a better set of business opportunities for us that produce the margin profiles that we desire. We've seen these businesses that are more cyclical in nature come back really strong. And then all of a sudden, you get all these projects, and then your cost to serve gets higher than the actual quote. And that's not what we're doing here. These are projects that we feel confident with and comfortable with and that they meet our skill sets, and that will lead to the profitability profile, for one.
Joe Giordano:
Yes. That's fair. Last for me. Just I think some of the deals you've done here seem interesting, very strategic and make a lot of sense for what you guys are trying to accomplish, fairly small. So when I look at your balance sheet, just curious to what your appetite is for larger M&A. And what's the target environment out there? Are there larger assets out there that kind of meet -- fit in with your strategic profile right now?
John Stauch:
Maybe. I mean I think my focus has been and our team's focus has been that we've carved out some specific areas that we think we want to grow. And we think we've got the organic capability to really grow. Now we always have to trade the make versus buy, right? Are we better off doing it ourselves? Or are we better buying the capability needed? Sometimes you don't have the channel reach, sometimes you don't have the brand or the skill sets. When we look at our spaces, there isn't really a large one that we need, and there's not really a large one that's available. And so I kind of like the path we're on, and I'm hopeful that more of these start to accelerate and that they add to our capability but don't distract us from the strategy that we're embarking upon.
Joe Giordano:
And so just a quick follow-on that. If that's like the -- yes, how comfortable are you like getting leverage down? Like do you -- at what point do we think about more aggressive buybacks just to kind of -- from a capital allocation standpoint?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean I think we're really pleased with the cash flow generation progress we've made. I think Bob mentioned in his prepared remarks, we had a couple -- we have bond maturing and we had a little bit of cash flow need, and we usually utilize cash in Q1. But given where we sit right now, I think we're committed to the buyback that we said we would this year. And I think that still gives us capacity to do any strategic bolt-on deals that become available in the near term.
Joe Giordano:
Thanks, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey. I would love to get an update on the pool app soft launch that you talked about last quarter. What's been the receptive rate? How many installations? And is it really pulling through the products that -- at a rate that you were expecting?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I mean, just to clarify, Deane, I mean, we've always had our pool ScreenLogic app that's been out there, and we're pleased with the progress on the pool side. And it's -- where we've launched that new app was on the water treatment side. And yes, we've got a couple of new exciting products. We got the under sink Easy Flow, and we've got the salt sensor that we've launched. And we feel good about those and the connectability. Growing pains? Yes, right? We're servicing a new customer, and we've got tweaks. I think the soft launch, I would describe as successful, but now we've got a little bit of work to do to make it the ultimate product that the consumer desires.
Deane Dray:
Good to hear. And then how about new product introduction expectations for the year? I think you had talked about a number of new IoT products. Any updates there on launches? And any impact on 2021?
John Stauch:
Yes. Deane, and I appreciate it. I mean I'm really excited about one in pool, and this might be where you were focused. We launched a side stream filtration product in a soft launch basis. So we're seeing amazing results as far as the clarity of the pool water by putting what was the CPT X-flow membranes on the side of a regular pool filter application. And that smart filter capability that we have in the soft launch applications has really demonstrated superior results. So that one, I'm really excited because that's a category that we haven't really seen new product introductions in pool for some period of time. And then on the Consumer Solutions side, it's really about connecting to that app that we mentioned around the smart product launches, the technologies. And then the most exciting one we have is this acquisition, Rocean, that we purchased and more of a countertop POU unit that will be launched either later this year or early next year.
Deane Dray:
Great. And how about any sneak preview on format, topics for the upcoming analyst day?
John Stauch:
Well, we're going to make you wait because we want you there on June 10. But I think you can expect that we're going to talk about the fact that we think we have great well-positioned businesses. I want to talk a little bit about the strategic growth investments we're making, Deane, and why do we feel good about these investments and show you a little bit of the progress along the way. I'm going to give you some insights on how I think the transformation office that we're leading and how that transformation can create value and help fund this organic growth. And then I'm probably going to share with you that we've got a strong balance sheet, as previously highlighted here, and give some indications of how do we use that balance sheet to create incremental value as well. So that's probably what we're going to talk about. And of course, no Investor Day would be fulsome without Dr. Phil sharing you with some sneak previews that were we're going to bring the technology at Pentair and why we're excited about the longer-term technology investments.
Deane Dray:
Looking forward to it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
Hi, guys.Great start to the year.
John Stauch:
Hi, Bry.
Robert Fishman:
Hey, Bry.
Bryan Blair:
I was hoping that you could parse out the core decline in commercial water treatment in the quarter and give us a sense of how the monthly sales cadence progressed through Q1.
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean -- I don't know, Bob, if you have that exact. I mean we're still down single digits in Q1 in the commercial water treatment. I think we're expecting to be inching hopefully, I mean, we got an easier compare in Q2, candidly. I mean just to remind you that the Q1 impact last year was muted as far as COVID, and then this is our first year-over-year comparison. And Q2 is where commercial filtration took a deep, steep decline. So you're going to see a pretty nice growth rate for them in Q2, but it's nowhere near where the 2019 levels were, but getting better off at the Q1 run rate.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. And just a level set on pro forma scale for commercial water treatment. As demand continues to normalize and get back to prepandemic, core volume then layering in KBI, is that two 75 plus at that point?
John Stauch:
Regarding when you say two 75, you're talking about the actual commercial water treatment piece?
Bryan Blair:
Yes, commercial water treatment revenue at that point.
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean that's -- I'd say that's directionally correct, yes.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. Excellent. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe I just wanted to circle back to the investment spend. You've mentioned it a bunch of times. And you gave some good color about some of the areas those funds are being dispersed toward. But perhaps maybe just help me understand the scale of that investment spend in the second half. Or is it just a sort of toggling function to sort of solve for that incremental margin that you're looking for? That's what I wanted to sort of better understand. And whether that deferral of investment spend, is that pushing much into next year as well? Or do you think the catch-up this year gets you to the right level medium term?
John Stauch:
Yes. So let me tell you where we're spending it and strategically why. So in pool, it's really around how do we be a destination site through our pool brands on the pad to bring you into Pentair, help you understand what's available and then connect you to our channel. So there's no desire to work around our channel. We want to go directly through our dealers and our distributors to continue to service you, but we want you to come and learn what's available to you to help pull demand. And that's where the investment has been going in pool as well as making sure that we've got a consumer services mindset around both services that you might need as well as making sure there's someone to answer the phone or chat with you upon your particular challenges and then connecting you with the dealer to solve that for you. And we've been steadily seeing more consumer inquiries into our service network than we've traditionally seen the dealer network. So we've had to augment that and build that up. In water treatment, it's about accelerating our residential services offering, building our brand and again, being more effortless to do business with, which you should read into as digitally transacting. And that's where those investments have been. And then on the IFT side, as we mentioned before, we believe we've got a nice biogas upgrading capability and sustainable gas. And we want to shift the investments to North America, which traditionally been on the European side. And we think that we've got a nice run rate ahead of us to grow that sustainable gas offering over the next several years. So that's where the investments are focused. And then obviously, one of those categories, we just filled in with the acquisition of Ken's, which was a buy investment platform instead of trying to do it on our own. And as far as the actual dollars, Bob?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. Just to help you quantify that, on our last call, we talked about that spend being roughly 1% of revenue. We spent a little bit of that in the first quarter. But as John mentioned, it does ramp as we head toward the back of the year. So think about a little bit more in Q2, but the majority of that spend, in Q3 and Q4.
Julian Mitchell:
I see. And then at that point, you're at the right level sort of medium term? Or does it go up again next year?
John Stauch:
No. I think at that level, we would expect to see that more flatten from a year-over-year standpoint because then, we've jump-started these programs, got the right people in. And then we're in more of a percentage of sales basis.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you. And then just one quick follow-up. If I look at sort of across the multi-industry group, Colfax and another company announcing a sort of separation into two pieces fairly recently. Just wondered your latest thoughts on the portfolio, overlaps between the two divisions. Or is it more of the view that the synergies are there now that you're sort of three years as a stand-alone company? And when you sort of look around, that public peers like Hayward and so forth, there isn't kind of obvious value creation from any kind of separation anyway.
John Stauch:
I understand the question. We get asked that all the time, but here's the way I look at it. We move -- we help you move, enjoy and improve your water. And the move side is the $1 billion on the IFT side that directly correlates with that phrase. And very important -- I mean, it's hard to produce any water application without moving the water through some type of pumping application. And we like our portfolio there. We have an opportunity to improve it, focus it and really expand the margins, which I'm comfortable that Jerome and team is working on. And then we've got a really nice set of industrial assets, and there is some cross-utilization. The membranes that we talk about on the industrial side are the membranes that are servicing this pool filter that I mentioned and also, hopefully, will be the foundation for our salt-free softener that we'll introduce in water treatment in the next several years. So I think there's cross -- a lot more cross synergies. I think with the IFT side, it's about focusing it, returning its ROS to historical levels and making sure that we're disciplined with where we grow and how we grow.
Julian Mitchell:
That's good to hear. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Graham with Rosenblatt Securities.
Scott Graham:
Hey. Good morning, John, Bob, Jim. Nice quarter.
Robert Fishman:
Thanks, Scott.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Scott Graham:
I wanted to maybe square for my mind what you're saying, maybe more specifically on price cost. I apologize for beating this up. But raw materials prices increased throughout the first quarter. So what we see in the first quarter for inflation of 240 basis points, I'm just thinking that, that number probably goes up from here. And you're saying, to Steve's question, pricing, plus 2.5% to 3% for the year, with the emphasis on the second half. And are you saying that price can offset raw materials inflation? Or are you saying that you need maybe a little bit of help from productivity?
John Stauch:
We need price and productivity both to offset inflation for the full year. That's what we said. And in Q2, as you imagine, when you're catching up in the channels, we are -- most of your orders there are at pre new price levels, and that's what we're still fulfilling, and the material supply has risen pretty rapidly here from a cost perspective. Everything sold in Q3 and beyond carries a new price -- selling price with it. And therefore, we see more of a positive contribution in Q3 and Q4 than we see the headwind in Q2.
Scott Graham:
Yes. Understood that. Thank you. So also the productivity jumped in the quarter. And I'm wondering, is that the G&A initiatives? Is there something more than that? And can you sustain that level?
Robert Fishman:
It's really a combination of a number of things. I mean our OpEx spending from Q1 of the prior year had not come down. And so we're benefiting from the efficiencies that we drove in the last half of last year and into this year. We're also driving a lot more volume, and the team is doing a really good job to create leverage. But also a number of the issues from last year around expedites and inefficiencies as we ramped production lines were much better at driving that extra production. So it's really across the board that's driving that productivity benefit in Q1.
Scott Graham:
Got it. Last question from me. With the large competitor's IPO, how do you think that changes things in the market? Obviously, they now have more resources, and they can get more resources on top of that. What are you thinking about Hayward going forward as a competitor?
John Stauch:
I mean I think they're -- have always been a formidable competitor. And I think to your point, they may be a more formidable competitor. I think the way I look at it, Scott, is it works its way through the way we think about our transformation. And we have to treat our pool business as if it was this independent business that's got to compete every single day with the agility and the flexibility against a set of competitors. We can't slow it down. So we're really working with our pool leadership team, and Mario is doing this in Consumer Solutions to make sure they have what they need to continue to stay in front. And so we welcome the challenge. I think it's going to make us better. And you want strong competition because that generally makes you a better company. And I ultimately think this will certainly put a kick in our butt, and we'll start moving forward at a faster rate.
Scott Graham:
Appreciate your responses, thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel
Adam Farley:
Yes, good morning. This is Adam Farley on for.
John Stauch:
Hey, Adam.
Adam Farley:
Going back to the capacity and labor management within pool. Is this -- is there any permanent capacity additions? Or is it mainly just running additional shifts? And does the pool business require any additional investment to increase capacity?
Robert Fishman:
It's a combination again of things. We've added second shifts. We've also increased the number of production lines, for example, in heaters, investments that we made last year, so to satisfy demand. Certainly, for the current year, we're in good shape to -- going forward, as we look out a couple of years, there would be some investment required.
Adam Farley:
Okay. And then shifting over to I&FT. Within the industrial business, I think you called out some strength in short cycle, but could you provide some color on what specific end markets are seeing some improvement?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean I think simply put, our industrial, more capital-intensive businesses, that need that capital investment to spur the demand. So it's really more in the industrial side we're seeing a pop. And then we're seeing some movement in the infrastructure side on our -- in the commercial and industrial side of our flow business. Those will be the two areas that we're encouraged by the trends.
Adam Farley:
Alright. Thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no additional questions at this time. I would like to turn it back over to John for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Stephanie, and thank you for joining us today. We believe Pentair is in the right space for the future. We believe we have great well-positioned businesses. We are accelerating investments in focused, higher-growth, strategic priorities. This includes our leading pool business and our growing water treatment business. Transformation is important to us, and we believe that our focus on our transformation efforts will drive higher levels of accountability and performance. Transformation should help us better allocate our resources as well as drive longer-term margin expansion. Our balance sheet remains quite strong, and we believe this provides an additional lever of value creation. Thank you for your continued interest, and we look forward to sharing more of our story at our Investor Day on June 10. Stephanie, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
[Operator Closing Remarks]
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q4 2020 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your speaker today, Mr. Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
James Lucas:
Thanks, James, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter and full year 2020 performance, as well as our first quarter and full year 2021 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to please request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure that everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. I would first like to say how proud I am of the entire Pentair organization and the contributions everyone made to help deliver on our commitments to all of our stakeholders in a uniquely challenging year. Our teams navigated this unprecedented environment and I believe that our company will emerge stronger as a result. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all of our global channel partners and suppliers for their patience and efforts in working with us and our consumers to meet our commitments despite the effects of the ongoing pandemic. We are pleased to deliver 2% sales growth and 5% adjusted EPS growth for the year. We generated over 500 million in free cash flow and we turned over $275 million to our shareholders through dividends and buybacks. While navigating these uncertain environment and making sure our employees and customers were safe as possible, we continue to invest in our top growth priorities through digital transformation, innovation and technology. During the year, we successfully launched both the Pentair Home and Pentair Dealer Apps. We also launched a brand redesigned the pentair.com website allowing for better cross-functional use and microsite enablement based on the feedback on how people want to interface with us. We also were able to fill out our management team by hiring Bob, as our new CFO; Mario as the new leader for Consumer Solutions; Steve, as our Chief Supply Chain Officer; and appointing Jerome Pedretti as our IFT segment leader. We have been busy building out capabilities throughout the organization, including adding over 100 IoT engineers in 2020 to drive connected solutions for consumers and for our OEM customers. We introduced new products like fresh point and easy flow in our residential POU category. Our connected solutions self sensor for installed water softeners advanced our leading sustainable gas solutions offering to recover and reuse methane and CO2, as well as introduced our beer assist digital services remotely optimized our beer membrane solutions. By the end of 2021 we expect to have over 20 new IoT products in the pipeline as we continue to move our Consumer Solutions platform to Smart Solutions. We also made great strides in advancing our ESG stewardship. Most recently importing, our General Counsel, Karla Robertson to the additional role of Chief Social Responsibility Officer. We recently completed a comprehensive ESG assessment to identify key topics of importance to our shareholders, customers, suppliers, employees and communities. We are planning to announce specific targets, including science based environmental targets in 2001 to further advance our social responsibility goals and progress. We have spent the past few years repositioning our portfolio and making investments to build out the Pentair brand and create a better experience for consumers to help solve their water treatment needs. While we benefited from a residential focused portfolio in 2020, we believe that the momentum will carry into 2021 and beyond. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail, after which I will provide an update on our overall strategic position.
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled, Q4 2020 Pentair Performance. During the fourth quarter we delivered sales growth of 5% and core sales growth of 3%. On a core basis, Consumer Solutions was up 8%, while Industrial & Flow Technologies declined 3%. I will discuss the details for each segment on the subsequent slides. Segment income was flat while adjusted EPS increased 3%. Our tax rate was 14%, while net interest came in at $5 million. Price improved from the third quarter. Productivity did not read-out in the quarter due to the fact that we paid bonuses this year and we continue to see some of our facilities disrupted with higher absenteeism due to COVID. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Full Year 2020 Pentair Performance. Given the unusual timing of 2020 by quarter we thought it would be helpful to look at the full year results to better appreciate the progress we were able to make in these challenging times. For the full year, core sales increased 1%, with Consumer Solutions growing 7% and Industrial & Flow Technologies declining 6%. Segment income was flat for the year, while adjusted EPS grew 5%. Price and productivity mostly offset inflation. But as we highlighted in the third quarter, the robust growth in pool led to higher-than-usual rebate activity that lowered price. We expect price and productivity to offset inflation going forward. Given the challenges that we faced in 2020, we were very pleased to deliver overall growth while still investing for the future. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Q4 2020 Consumer Solutions performance. Momentum for Consumer Solutions in the third quarter carried over into the fourth quarter. For the quarter, sales grew 10%, segment income increased 9%, and return on sales was essentially flat. Considering the challenges the team faced in the first half of the year, the fourth quarter performance was a strong close to a remarkable year, and we believe validation for the growth prospects of the segment's portfolio of businesses. Pool experienced tremendous growth of 15% in the fourth quarter and slightly above that for the full year. The total pool industry received significant tailwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced consumers to stay at home and increase their desire to invest in their backyards. This trend has continued into 2021 as demand for new pools and pool maintenance remains strong. We believe the business enters 2021 with strong momentum. While the market dynamics assisted in the growth of the pool business, this could not have been achieved had there not been previous focus on increasing dealers and driving new products into the industry. That strategy allowed pool to reap the benefit of the remarkable growth in 2020. This past year, we spent time building the foundation of data analytics, specifically around the performance of dealers and channels. This advancement allows leaders in the business to better dissect the areas where the business is winning and where there are opportunities to improve. Specific plans are being developed down to the individual dealer to accelerate growth in core product areas. The data shows there is still growth potential in the core, even though the business has seen significant historical growth. Water treatment grew 4% in the quarter, with strong residential growth being offset by continued weakness in commercial. In particular, we saw the second consecutive quarter of growth in China, which we believe is a positive sign that the markets hit earliest by the pandemic have stabilized and are showing potential signs of a sustained recovery. Residential components posted high single-digit growth with strength in all geographies and product lines. We saw very strong growth in our key valves product line, which is a positive indicator for overall industry growth. We launched the flat connected valve during the quarter and are seeing early signs of market acceptance. We believe the overall North American industry as well as Europe continues to benefit from consumer focus on in-home water quality. Our residential systems and services businesses both delivered strong double-digit growth as our investments to build out these businesses are beginning to read through. We had two new product launches during the quarter
John Stauch:
Thank you, Bob. Please turn to Slide 11, labeled 2021 Execution Expectations. Our focus for 2021 does not change from last year as we are focused on delivering on our core while continuing to build out our future. As we enter 2021, our residential businesses remain strong, and we are encouraged to see ongoing signs of stabilization in our commercial businesses. Although we have not yet seen indicators of year-over-year growth, we are expecting recovery likely in the tail end of 2021. We believe that our smaller exposure to industrial capital spending will remain hindered for now. We have a long successful history of price realization across the majority of our portfolio. We will monitor closely the rapidly evolving inflation environment and respond accordingly. We are also pacing our growth investments and have the ability to modulate as needed, but we prefer to remain on offense and build on the momentum of the past two years. We recognize that we have opportunities to address our cost structure, particularly within IFT, and we plan to act as appropriate. We discussed last year the G&A benchmarking efforts we undertook and identified that we have room for improvement. We are well underway in terms of our G&A efforts and are looking closely at our overall global enablement structure. Our goal is to deliver transformation plans that we expect will drive significant ROS expansion by 2024 while funding our strategic growth initiatives. As we look to the future, our priorities are unchanged around growing both our pool and water treatment businesses. We have identified growing interest in our sustainable gas solutions business. I look forward to updating all of you in the future as we believe this business has exciting growth opportunities ahead. We believe that pool has a long runway of continued growth. The Department of Energy regulation going into effect in mid-2021 is shifting the industry even further toward variable speed pumps, which is a category we helped to create over a decade ago. Today, nearly 60% of the pumps we sell are variable speed, while the industry adoption rate is closer to 50%. Over the next two years, we expect the industry, including us, to move closer to 85% as it is expected that there will still be certain parts of the industry that will be able to use single speed pumps. We also continue to invest in our automation platform for pool and see strong adoption of our new offerings. In addition, despite being a leading brand in the U.S. on the pool pad, when a consumer contacts us directly on pentair.com, it has not been the best experience for the consumer. We believe that there's a tremendous opportunity of engaging the consumer and curating their experience through our existing channel while also ensuring that the consumer received the experience that they desired. Within water treatment, we believe there are opportunities to rapidly expand our $50 million end-to-end residential services business and to be the leader in advanced technology and connected solutions and residential point-of-use solutions through our existing technology and the acquisition of Rocean. We also have a leading commercial foodservice offering that we look to expand into other segments as well as add important services for our customers. In sustainable gas, it is merely focusing on our high-growth segment within Industrial and adding global capability to accelerate our offerings. Finally, I wanted to touch on our approach to capital allocation, which remains unchanged. Our top priority is our commitment to our investment-grade rating. Our strong cash flows allow us to invest in our top organic growth opportunities. From an M&A perspective, we remain focused on strategic bolt-on and tuck-in deals and focused strategic priorities, like I just shared with you. While M&A valuations remain elevated, we continue to actively build our deal pipeline and plan to remain disciplined. Finally, we are committed to returning cash flow to our shareholders through dividends and opportunistic buybacks. We believe that Pentair has a bright outlook, and we will continue to invest for the future while delivering on our core business. Our goal remains to deliver more consistent, predictable results for our customers, the environment, our employees, and our shareholders. I would now like to turn the call over to James for Q&A, after which I will have a few closing remarks. James, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Mike Halloran:
So couple things here first, can you just help I also had a couple comments that Bob made on a whole and how that tracks for this year around inflation price cost? The commentary was price cost positive expectations this year, but not a lot of channel-fill even though there were some rebates last year inflation kind of hits you in the fourth quarter a little bit? And just give some context on how you think that balances out through the year and then what the pricing environment looks like for you as we sit here today?
John Stauch:
I'll take the first part, I'll have Bob comment the second. It still like 18 I think inflation wise where we're seeing a lot of the commodities that we buy, hitting record levels, right. I mean if you think about its simple context just take a pump. The copper goes into a motor, gets wound copper is up it goes into a metal housing. Metal is at all time highs and that goes into a corrugated box that gets shipped to a customer right. All three of those are seeing record inflation levels primarily being driven by what we think is a spike the China recovery and demand, Mike. So I think inflation is high. I think as we enter this guidance and look at next year. We think we're balanced between the price, we think we can realize from the channel and where we are on the inflation pressures as we head into next year. If we need to do more, I think there is an opportunity to do so. Because I think the inflation that's hitting us will also impact the whole entire industry. Bob I don't know if you want to add anything.
Robert Fishman:
I'll just add that price was challenged in Q3 and Q4, we did see higher rebates that miss that masks some of that price gains and the planning assumptions for the year or that price and productivity offset inflation. And then to John's point as circumstances change we will need to work on the different levers that are at our disposal.
Mike Halloran:
That makes lot of sense. And then maybe just talk a little bit about the supply chain on the pool side? How you’re thinking about visibility as we go into the front part of the year backlog levels channel fill, things like that and any reason to think that whether besides that a normal sequential pattern is a reasonable thought process moving through the year?
John Stauch:
No, I mean I think you're thinking about the right way. I think we've got our supply chain in our plant capacity to a level. Now we're shipping at rates that are helping us catch up in a more rapid pace and clearly the demand remains strong. But we're able to meet that demand. And I think right now, pending any other COVID disruptions which we're hopeful we're getting through most of those, we feel good that your assumptions are accurate, Mike.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
John, Bob you’ve obviously - can you talk about the significant leadership change at the company. We know you've got a plan to get G&A out as do you think about 2021 maybe sort of talk about what's in the guidance. And it's interesting you talked about maybe getting out of several product lines and C&I and industrial filtration. So, how much could sort of the productivity in the self-help help you in terms of your margin in 2021?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, so Andy I don't think we've made any decisions to exit any parts of our portfolio. I think we've got certainly areas of the portfolio that can do better. But when I step back and we looked at the G&A transformation, I believe it's more than a G&A transformation. I think what we learned for 2020 the way we sell globally, the way we interact with our customers a lot of the virtual capability that was brought in and how we work with our channel partners. The demand to have a more consumer-enabled and have that be an effortless process through ordering on the Internet that's a shift. And we think we have an opportunity to take a look at our global cost structure and to think about where we should put the work. And where is the right person doing the right work at. And there is an opportunity across the portfolio to drive significant margin expansion for that same in operations and sourcing. I mean we have factories that are at record capacity levels and we have other factories that are under capacitized right now. So all of that is and what we are going to have transformation plan. In 2021, I think it’s more planning the efforts to get after it and then I think we're confident in 2022 and beyond. We start to realize the benefits of all those effort.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And then I think you mentioned some improvement in orders within industrial filtration and turning backlog. So have you seen in general your customers start to revisit their budgets, you talked about still tough environment in capital spending, but maybe is that starting to turn you mentioned China, couple quarters in a row - a little bit better there. So in general, what are you seeing in some of those CapEx businesses?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, so what we saw in 2020 for many of those businesses were down double-digits. And so the good news as we look into the 2021 plan is those businesses we're planning to be roughly flat. So stabilization for those businesses some growing backlog in certain cases and some signs of increased demand. So I would consider 2021 is being a stabilization year and potentially some upside if things improve.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
Thanks guys.
Robert Fishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Good. So - throughout 2018 I mean, I'm not sure that was like that memorable year for your stock. And I think that there was some difference in the timing of seeing that inflation, if I recall, I mean you guys got I think like a point of price back then. But then in 2019 you obviously got a lot more price and I think the realization of the inflation kind of hit you mid season in 2018. So maybe just talk about like the differences in timing between now in 2018? Because it seems to be kind of like a slow moving train that you can see from a mile away and perhaps react to it. And then what are you assuming for price, are you assuming a point, are you assuming 1.5 like what, what exactly is the kind of price assumption in the numbers?
John Stauch:
Yes, so first of all, Steve thank you for letting me clarify them - not looking for 2018 stock performance efforts, but if you recall 2018 started to experience significant tariffs that were put into place. And we made some decisions there to weigh it out and to go on cycle with a lot of our price increases. In retrospect I think we learned that might end up in the right playbook to use. What I was referring to is the 2018 levels of inflation feel like that. And I do think we're out in front of the price increases because it was a slow moving train. What I'm also saying that if we need to do more, we would do more Steve. Because I don't think we want to take that position again that we did throughout the 2018, which may despite catch up all year long if you recall.
Steve Tusa:
Right and so, what is the price assumption?
John Stauch:
And so for the question, again, the price and productivity offsetting inflation the assumption for prices back to the historical levels of around two points.
Steve Tusa:
Two points, okay got it. I mean in 2019 you guys got I think like 2.5% of price. So I mean this is not that level is not, certainly not unprecedented in an inflationary time, am I correct?
John Stauch:
No, it’s more normalized and I think when you look at 2018 and 2019 together it felt more normalized, but it was very disruptive from timing perspective as you mentioned.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, okay that makes lot of sense. And then just lastly on this variable speed transition, how are you embedding that in guidance. And what are you assuming for, just remind us of kind of like what the profile is on that as you know every point of that conversion goes to variable speed kind of what that does from a revenue per unit and margin perspective?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, so I mean - think about it is maybe 1.5 times the product price or sales price. Steve, when we sell at variable speed versus when we sell a single speed and not that the margins any better, but the margin dollars are much better. I think it's a slower conversion. I think we did made progress picked up about five points in the last couple quarters. And as we mentioned moving from 60.85 I think more of that is towards the tail end of 2021 and into 2022. As the channel reacts and begins to buy that for us, but I do think that's out there is a nice transition that will benefit us and its energy efficiency to. And so these are better pumps they last longer. I think is better value for all the customers that buy them.
Steve Tusa:
One last question for you just on balance sheet, you guys are now at 1.3 times you’ve clearly, you're generating very strong free cash flow in a downturn like kind of eye-popping strong there. So clearly, you can kind of defend yourselves when volumes go down, and when you have a volatile environment? Another residential name like Linux is trading at a substantial premium to you guys, they have bought back basically 30% of the earnings growth in the last five years has been driven by buyback. And they do it in kind of a programmatic way. Why would this kind of free cash flow yield and with your balance sheet you could buy back 20% of the float programmatically over the next two to three years? Why not - be more aggressive on the buyback side. I mean what are you waiting for to come along on acquisitions to not at least be more aggressive in programmatic about the buyback given how cheap your stock is?
John Stauch:
Well, I think we certainly have options, Steve. And I think we're going to look at all those options to create the best return. Right now, I think we are actively looking in the three areas I said within the M&A side, but those M&A deals are going to have, to have the right returns to be able to lean into them. And if we feel the stock is a better purchase, we'll make the deal on the stock. So I think we've got flexibility, and we're going to continue to maintain that flexibility. And I feel confident we're going to choose the right one that adds most value over time.
Robert Fishman:
At this point, we have $150 million of share buyback built into the forecast, and so our typical starting point for the year. And then to continue to be opportunistic based on the circumstances.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Joe Giordano:
We kind of touched around this a lot with the transition to variable speed. But how do you think about like the cadence of the year? Do you - is there maybe more of like a pre-buy than seasonal? Is there more like activity in the 2Q than like - than seasonal because of like a pre-buy ahead of a regulatory change? And does 3Q kind of see the offset to that? Is there maybe a little bit of like a shift in the order patterns this year?
John Stauch:
Yes. Q2 and Q3 would be the heat of the pool season for our customers. And yes, we would expect to make significant progress during that time frame. I'm just cautioning, even though there's regulations that go in mid-season, I just don't think we're going to go all the way to the end point this year. And I think it's going to be opportunities for people to work through existing inventory supplies and work through the channel. We're spending all of our marketing efforts, helping people convince that - trying to convince the end consumer that now is the time to buy the better product. And so I think we're going to make progress, as you said, in the pool season. And I think the tail of that will fall into next year's pool season.
Robert Fishman:
I'd say the good news from my perspective is, you know, built into our guidance of up 3% to 5% is a pool business that's growing roughly mid-single-digit-plus after a year where pool saw 17% growth. So the natural demand continues. Could it be better? Potentially. But not a bad place to be after seeing such significant growth in 2020.
Joe Giordano:
Yes. Certainly not. And Bob, just on the tax rate, if we move into an environment where the U.S., U.S. tax law changes, how protected are you given your domicile? How protected do you think the overall rate is?
Robert Fishman:
We would - We would see a little bit of headwind in that situation, but significantly less than our competitors would see. So overall, we like our tax profile.
Joe Giordano:
Perfect. And then last for me. Just, John, you talked about sustainable gas a lot over the last couple of quarters that's something you're focused on. Can you scope that out a little bit, like what exactly are you selling into that market? How large is the business for you now? And where you think that can go?
John Stauch:
Yes. So real quickly, we benefit from significant demand in Europe because Europe has really leaned into the environmental impact a lot stronger than we have in the United States. And most of our customers are in the beverage industries or the processing industries. And there's an opportunity to capture the off gases and turn them back into either energy, which produces value for them or to throwing them back into the process in the form of food-grade CO2. So it's a business that has substantial legs to it. What we're starting to see is an environmental movement globally. And certainly, our current administration is leaning in to try to do things that are going to help our greenhouse gases over time. So we see an opportunity outside of Europe now, and we want to make sure we've got the sales force, the engineering capability and move more to a standard product offering that's more of a plug-and-play with global partners that can help promote what we do. So we're very encouraged by the order trends and the projects that we've received outside of the traditional spaces. And that gives us excitement that with just a little bit more investment, we can certainly accelerate the outcomes.
Joe Giordano:
How big is that business now for you?
John Stauch:
Roughly $90 million in total.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Can we get an update on the launch of the Home and Dealer apps for pool? You know, any color in terms of how many users, the level of engagement, are you seeing online ordering? Any updates would be appreciated.
John Stauch:
Yes. I appreciate that, Deane. There's soft launches on both, and we moved to more hard launches here as we head into Q2. So the experience rate has been good without giving the actual quantification numbers. And really, what you need is the app, and then you need some smart products to connect to it, which is why we're spending time promoting the salt sensor and also the Easy Flow under sink application, as well as other POU units that we expect come from the Rocean acquisition, combined with our technology team. So the app is designed to do two things. It's to provide a better consumer experience, to be able to understand salt sensor levels retroactively on installed base. The new valve connects to it on pre-installs. And then it also gives you an understanding of what's coming through your water and your flow rates and your - you need to change your filters. But the more exciting aspect is connecting with dealers. So when a, an end consumer needs a service on any product they have or they're interested in learning more, we would have our dealers in that app as well and be able to connect the consumer with the dealer to help curate the experience for the individual. So very excited about the early stages of that, and its connection to Alexa, connection to Google Home, connection to Apple Home, all those other features. And so we're very excited, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Great to hear. So we'll be watching that for the full launch. And then second question is, could you provide some more color on that growth you're seeing in China? You said the second quarter of growth. How does that look for the commercial side versus the residential side?
John Stauch:
Yes. So candidly, residential is up more significantly. I mean commercial is back in China, but they're still experiencing a little lesser demand on the openings of restaurants and stores as people are still cautious about the pandemic. So they're back and they're open, and it's growing. But it's not growing at the same rate that the residential water filtration is growing at this stage, Deane.
Deane Dray:
And then just the last one for me. Can you comment on the product lines that you exited in commercial. Just any color there, especially on the - if you could size it.
John Stauch:
Yes. These are really small products...
Robert Fishman:
Yes, those were small product lines. And just an example of us reducing complexity and driving cost out, but again, small product lines in terms of the C&I portfolio.
John Stauch:
SKU reductions more than anything, Deane.
Deane Dray:
That's good to hear. I appreciate that. I mean it's - it's walking away from unprofitable businesses. It's always the right decision. So I like seeing that. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks for taking my question. Could you update us on what you're seeing on the foodservice side? And should you start to see that improve as more restaurants open and need to change their cartridges?
John Stauch:
Yes. So I'll take the first part, and Bob will give you the second. Yes, we saw a steep decline, significant double-digit decline in Q2 when the pandemic hit. And we've seen a modest recovery off of that deep decline into Q3 and in Q4. We're sort of in that flattish range now. And that basically has restaurants open at roughly half capacity or quarter capacity depending on where they're living. The piece that we have not yet seen the recovery on is really the hospitality side of the hotel industry. And we're expecting that, as we said in our prepared comments, probably to the tail end of 2021. That would be a really big help to that business. The, obviously, replacement of cartridges are continuing, probably at a slower rate because the usage is slightly slower. And our portfolio is skewed more to some of the faster service and to the drive-through coffee shops. So we do get a little bit better than the overall restaurant average.
Saree Boroditsky:
Then you talked about opportunities to lower G&A spending by, I think, 150 to 200 basis points over time. Could you talk through any improvements you're looking for in 2021? And then what's driving that improvement?
John Stauch:
Yes. We're going to get a little bit of leverage in 2021. That's about it, keeping the existing cost base and growing on top of it. What we're really looking to do is, how do we think of our centers of excellence and where do they best serve the business unit, the segment and the enterprise. Within that construct, how do we get the best resources, the point of impact. And that's globally, right? I mean we've all learned that some of our people are now able to work virtually or work from home. And we don't need all - the necessarily facilities we have. But at the same time, we want to create workspaces and collaboration centers for our businesses to work with customers and work with dealers on. So with this is going to be a fairly sizable transformation. I think in 2021 as I said not expecting a lot other than the planning elements of this. And then we expect significant contributions in 2022 and beyond, beyond G&A even as the sales and marketing resources also get more effective and efficient.
Robert Fishman:
Yes and I would just add, we're really rallying around that theme of right work in the right place. And to John's point where should that work to be done closest to the customer at the product line, is it at the business unit level, the segment or the enterprise and then what is that work. So if I pick my own area of FP&A as an example I have big businesses like pool that probably drive their own kind of FP&A piece. But then I have other businesses that would benefit from an efficiency and effectiveness perspective of having a shared approach or center of excellence approach, it goes to data analytics as well. So those are the types of things that we're thinking through.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a first question on the assumptions and the guidance for the pool business, some of the consumer-facing businesses we cover guiding for double-digit declines in the second half. Heard your guidance about mid-single for the year for pool, but maybe help us understand first half versus second half dynamics?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, I'll take that one and then, John if you want to add. It was important for us to specify mid single-digit plus as our guidance for the pool business embedded in our overall guidance. We continue to see strong momentum as we enter the first quarter, a good natural demand. So as the year plays out, we expect obviously stronger growth as we have a weaker comparison in the first half, but still strong business in the back half as we bump up against those bigger compare. So overall, I think we're optimistic about the growth in the pool business and that will certainly help free cash flow as well.
Julian Mitchell:
But are you assuming the pool business is up or flat or down in the second half year-on-year?
Robert Fishman:
Right now, we would say that we're at high historic levels, but generally flattish to modestly down in Q3 and Q4. That's at the mid-single digit level, if we get that mid-single digit plus, we would expect that we could be producing modest growth in the back half of the year. I think the more important piece that we want to make sure we convey is. Our quarters last year represented a softer Q2 as the orders came through the distribution channel. We were not yet producing those. So we had pretty sizable Q3 and Q4 as we're catching up and this year, if you think about the demand and the way we're meeting in Q1 and Q2 will have stronger year-over-year comparisons there. As we assess where the market is going, as we start to think beyond this pool year and the next pool year we'll have a better understanding as we exit Q2 what the back half of the year looks like.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you. And then my follow-up would just be around the segment margin assumptions. So it looks like segment margins might be up a few 10s of basis points this year. Maybe just help clarify that. And then also, again how do we think about the first half versus second half in terms of the margin expansion potential? Understand the volume leverage is a bigger tailwind in the first half and in the second half, because of the comp, but maybe give us any color around the inflation headwind and how that's falling first half versus second half?
Robert Fishman:
Yes Julian I promise the first part of my answer here is not to filibuster. But I want to make sure we describe that one of the reasons we're setting up these three strategic growth investments two are in Consumer Solutions and one is in IFT. It’s really a disproportionately fund those with investments to drive the future. What we're going to do a better job on this sharing with you as we go forward is the value of the core. Meaning - to take a look at the core performance absent those incremental investments, we're getting the drop through as you would expect. We're getting the price and productivity offset inflation. The volumes coming through - a nice flow-through rate and then we're taking the opportunity to build out a services organization and residential in Consumer Solutions build out the front-end capability in pool. And then also make sure we put the investment ahead of the likely growth opportunities in SGS and there is pretty substantial investment there in those three things which drawdown those margins for both of those two segments. Absent that, I think we're pretty balanced then more normal year. And so, we'll do a better job highlighting throughout 2021 how we're doing in the core and then how these investments are starting to roll through.
Julian Mitchell:
There is no rest of the question.
Robert Fishman:
Was there a second part to the question?
Julian Mitchell:
I guess it was really around that - is the margin expansion sort of steady through the year or do you see a bigger first half increase because of volume leverage and then the second half sort of rolls over because of the top-line comp and more inflation coming in?
Robert Fishman:
Yes.
Julian Mitchell:
That was really…?
Robert Fishman:
Just I would say yes you're right, it's more in the first half and its lesser contribution in the second half, because of the - not so much the inflation, but the investments.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
I think you mentioned the supply chain stabilizing from your standpoint in pools. Can you just talk about where do you see inventory levels in the channel, is there is still need for destock or restock sorry?
John Stauch:
Yes, we're catching up and yes.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on the first quarter guidance, can you maybe give us a little more color about how you're thinking in either the segments or some of the businesses that are driving that higher growth rate?
John Stauch:
Yes, the guidance we gave was that 7% to 12%. And so again think of Consumer Solutions with pool driving significant growth in Q1 and think of the - IFT business has been roughly flat in those numbers.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
I'm going to follow-up here on some of the strategic investments that you're talking about - they're starting to make I guess ramping up in the second half. Can you give us any color on kind of what the incremental level of increased investment is in 2021? And how you're planning for that to, I don't know whether it increases in 2022 in 2023. Are we continuing to ramp up the level of investment, when do you think we kind of we'll hit a plateau and maybe that becomes less of a drag on the margin increases?
John Stauch:
Yes, I'll start with the investments that we see 2021 to 2020 that we want to make is more than a point of overall Pentair revenue kind of frame that out a little bit, Nathan. This is uniquely different capability than we have today. This is about building out our water treatment brand that people recognize so that they can come in and work with Pentair to help curate their water experience. This is about customer experience capability more consumer-related, so that we can quickly get consumers the dealer help and/or the technical support that they need to fix their particular challenges. So it's capability we don't have today. It's capability we think will add a lot of value. And then, and also it's about pretty more trucks on the road as far as the services in residential. The paybacks are enormous from an IRR perspective of a two year intervals. But the breakeven point is roughly a year when you put the sales team in place and you put the dealers in a geography and you wait for the return on the accrual of the annuity base there. So that's the type of investment we're making and we pace it a little bit more in 2020 then we would have liked. And we really want to accelerate it if we can here in 2021. And so, it can be modulated but that's an example of what it is and the likely levels a bit.
Robert Fishman:
And for all of these investments what we're building strong business cases and return on investments, holding the teams accountable, because it's a significant investment for us and we want to make sure we get the type of numbers John just talked about in terms of return.
Nathan Jones:
And if you don't need to modulate those investments we get back to kind of a more normal business environment through 2021? Would you anticipate ramping those investments up again in 2022 or are you kind of going to be at a level that you need to be at for strategic investments?
John Stauch:
I think we would think that would be a new normal level with may be slightly more Nathan, but what we would then start to see is the benefit of what we think the Pentair transformation efforts would be as far as ROS expansion that would fund that and maybe give us a little more ROS structure.
Nathan Jones:
Got it. That's great color. Thank you very much.
Robert Fishman:
Yes, big picture from my perspective is that even with those strategic investments, our view is that with the Pentair transformation return on sales expansion will be significant by 2024.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer:
Hi, good morning and thanks for all the clarity, this is a minor one?
John Stauch:
Hi, Rob thanks, for the book by the way I’m mostly through it. So thank you.
Rob Wertheimer:
Excellent, excellent hope you like it. So just to help me I guess maybe our apps a little bit newer, but with the pricing dynamic in pool and the rebates. You obviously had very strong sales and I understand that sort of generates higher rebates, how does that sort of reset next year if we continue to have strong sales, you retain more of the pricing, as rebate level stay similar. And maybe just explain that dynamic and I'm all set? Thank you.
John Stauch:
Yes, I think more simply that the rebate structure resets off that higher base. So its goodness for the P&L in 2021.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay, perfect, perfect the environment obviously pretty strong. I mean, yes, [indiscernible] I mentioned, which I think it's true, you can get a contractor to do any kind of homework. I mean how far out is your visibility do you think on consumer demand heading into the summer. I know a lot of folks couldn’t get stuck on that one of two last summer and I'll stop there? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes, we have strong confidence through what I would call this pool season Rob. And the real question mark, which we'll get through as we get more into the summer is how does that lead into the next pool season we start to see that at the end of Q2 and Q3 for the next buying season. And that's as Bob was talking mid-single digits plus, the plus is that we actually see upside in the 2022 pool season versus the 2021, which all indications are that demand is likely to continue, which is not ready to say that yet.
Rob Wertheimer:
Okay, thank you.
John Stauch:
Also I want to be in a chapter in your book on a positive side in the next version in addition, so I'm going to work hard at that I think.
Rob Wertheimer:
You guys got a lot underway, which is awesome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Bryan Blair:
I know we're late in Q&A I'll just ask one. I was hoping you could update us a little more on total water management and how that's influencing your commercial trends stabilization. It's good to see there, you are clearly outperforming the market. I know that's early stage, but is that initiatives significantly accelerating into 2021 and could that be more needle moving as we look to the back half into 2022?
John Stauch:
Yes, so let me explain quickly what it is, I mean in the commercial office water space many of the units that people buy and purchase are actually at least a rented to the maintenance groups that install them. So their monthly contract services, since we deal on the foodservice side with larger restaurant towards or franchises or chains, the more profitable ones just purchase the product from us and then do that replacement cartridges as they go along. But there is a huge opportunity to attack the smaller restaurants or the smaller franchises with more of the leasing model and that's what that is about. And yes, the uptick in the early going is a really nice proof of concept that shows that is a business model that people are interested in and has good returns for us and it's a good four way into having the right equipment for the restaurant. So we're encouraged. Obviously, we had to do that during COVID year, but made good progress last year and we expect to continue to expand as we go forward.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Rosenblatt Securities. Go ahead please. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
I do have a question, I'd like to go back and revisit the prepared comments on the G&A, where I wasn't quite sure you're meaning. John in the G&A, because I thought last quarter, we were talking about with the new management team in place, there has been identification of G&A reduction opportunities, some 150 to - 200 basis points per year the next three years. Are we on track for that this year?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean to get the not all of that savings, but we're on track to the longer term savings per G&A absolutely. So I want to compliment my by leaders who lead G&A. But as we started to work through this and COVID started to emerge. We are realizing some efficiencies we thought we could bring to the sales and marketing and the operation side as well. So I may be slowed the process down maybe 30 to 60 days Scott to make it a more enterprise wide look at what we need to do to support the segments more thoughtfully. And drive a higher level of return because there is a demand for the newer types of technologies and more digital transformation needs we do, we have to serve our customer, and I wanted to make sure we weren't putting more of the old legacy costs in. At the same time we're going to add the new cost, and I think that ships can drive significant on transformation opportunity for Pentair. Bob, you want to add?
Robert Fishman:
Yes, I would just add that as a significant owner of a big piece of the G&A. We are definitely on track in terms of the numbers that you mentioned, and we still see improvement here in 2021.
Scott Graham:
Thank you, that's very clear. The other question I had is about pools, the new pool build market in particular trying - just hoping you could base on what you're hearing from your distributors, anything that you're hearing from the contractors about - what new pool builds look like this year?
John Stauch:
They are up. The pool permit data we have is partial for the states that we work and, but they're up anywhere from 20% to 25% in lot of those markets and regions. So that’s - I mean that's encouraging. And as you know, that's not the biggest part of our business, the biggest one is the aftermarket, but when you're putting your new pools you’re getting new pool pad and you're filling out that pool pad at least to further equipment in the aftermarket space down the road. So all encouraging data right now Scott.
Scott Graham:
John to that end, if I may just tack this on to that, because I know that you're trying to look beyond your distribution channel and kind of like what rights and who is doing the installing. And - some of the work that you're doing in data analytics, are you finding ways strategically to get more content on the pad with the new pools, what are you doing there?
John Stauch:
Yes so, I mean - just we believe our pool channel is the right channel, and these are professionals that we work with for many, many years, and we want to continue to work through them and with them. But when we sell into the channel, we don't know where the end product went unless it's an automated product that someone downloads an app, which we said is only about 15% of consumers today. So what we also know is that consumers out there are just trying to get something repaired or replaced. And right now, what is happening is these contractors or these dealers are really busy. So they're not always able to get to them. And so when I talk about getting more through the consumer, A) its helping them understand what they should be expecting in their pool pad as you mentioned, but B) if they just need some service, how much you can call Pentair and we can get your service technician out. And it will be through our channel because we want to continue to honor it, but we want to make sure that you're getting served within the timeframe that you needed to be, that's what we're really talking about, and I'm really excited by that Scott.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion of today's call, I'd like to turn the call back over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, James. And thank you for joining us today. We continue to believe that Pentair has a strong foundation and portfolio business to build upon. We have a strong purpose, mission and the vision focused on delivering smart sustainable solutions that empower our customers to make the most of life's essential resources. We believe that we are in attractive spaces that are expanding. We are a leader in the pool industry and our global Water Treatment business is helping us become an even more integral player to the global Residential and Commercial segments. We believe we have the right enterprise strategy businesses, talent and culture, from our win right values to our Pentair Integrated Management System and through our win strategies we are enabling all of our employees to continuously improve. Finally, we continue to prioritize providing superior customer experiences and delivering more predictable and consistent results. Thank you for your continued interest. James, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q3 2020 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Mariama, and welcome to Pentair's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us today. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2020 performance, as well as our full year 2020 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you please limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure that everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. First and foremost, we hope that everyone is and remains healthy and safe. I’d like to start by expressing my sincere gratitude to all of our frontline employees for their continued commitment to our customers and shareholders. Our performance could not have happened without these teams and their dedication to the Pentair Win Right Values and our customers. While the world we live in continue to face much uncertainty, we were pleased to deliver strong third quarter results with double-digit gains in sales and EPS while also delivering robust free cash flow. We’ll discuss the details for the quarter shortly, but we believe our mix of residential focused businesses has helped differentiate our results in these uncertain times. Despite the ongoing challenges and uncertainties that persist we have continue to invest in our top growth priorities in digital transformation. We have successfully soft launched both the Pentair Home and Pentair dealer apps and we expect 2021 to be a great year for a number of new connected products across many of our businesses. While our businesses are seasonally stronger during the second and third quarters, we are expecting a strong finish to 2020. I am proud of all of our businesses’ commitment to strong execution in a continued challenging environment. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail, after which I will provide an update on our overall strategic position. Bob?
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled Q3 2020 Pentair Performance. During the third quarter, we delivered sales growth of 12% and core sales growth of 10%. On a core basis Consumer Solutions was up 23%, while Industrial & Flow Technologies declined 4%. I will discuss the details for each segment on the subsequent slides. Segment income grew 14% while adjusted EPS increased 21%. Our tax rate of 13% was a true-up as we now expect our annual tax rate to be 15%. Price was minimal in the quarter as the elevated volumes we experienced in the quarter primarily in pool resulted in a higher than usual level of rebates with our channel partners. Likewise, our productivity was offset by additional expenses incurred such as increased hiring to help keep up with demand and higher overall incentive compensation on a year-over-year basis. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q3 2020 Consumer Solutions Performance. As a reminder, nearly 80% of Consumer Solutions serves residential markets. Many of our products has been in higher demand this year given consumers staying at home. For the quarter, sales grew 25%, segment income increased 39% to 24.2%. Pool was clearly a strong performer this quarter with a 46% increase in sales. This follows a flat performance in the second quarter, which is worth discussing for a moment. In a normal year, the pool season starts in March or April. In 2019, we saw a late start to the season due to cool wet weather in several key markets. This year, we saw a pause in business in the first part of April as the industry tried to understand the impacts of lockdowns in the U.S. By May, orders start seeing unprecedented demand as consumers sheltering at home were investing in their existing pools, upgrading their pools or seeking a new pool to be built. In fact, dealers across the country began to experience a backlog of activity that resulted in many quotes for new pools being delayed as dealers were struggling to keep up with demand. As those events transpired, we experienced some delays in our supply chain at our own manufacturing plants in April as we adapted to a new normal that included social distancing within the plants. This had a negative impact on productivity and affected our usual ability to deliver quickly, which resulted in a higher than usual disparity between our sell-in rates and the industry sell-through rates. As the third quarter began, we had our manufacturing ramped up and our supply chains in line and we worked diligently to meet strong industry-wide demand. While the pool season officially ends in September, orders have remained healthy, albeit not at third quarter levels. Not only did pool see consistent linearity throughout the third quarter from a sales standpoint, but we saw strong demand across all product categories. Some products such as heaters have experienced above average demands as consumers are looking to open their pools earlier and close them later given we are all filled in the home for the foreseeable future. Despite the higher than usual demand, and a delayed start to the season, we’ve continued to invest appropriately in the business and have made good progress in furthering our automation offerings, as well as expanding our overall product portfolio. There has been focus around an upcoming DOE regulation that will see further adoption of variable feed pumps. We’ve been working closely with our channel partners on educating them on the upcoming regulation. We continue to optimize our variable to speed pumps to exceed DOE requirements in addition to introducing new select models of single speed pumps for categories that will still be able to use single speed pumps in limited applications. While the pool season has been far from normal for the second year in a row, we still believe in the long-term growth prospects for this attractive space. Further, we believe that the first half of next year should benefit from still solid demand in addition to an easier comparison. We will continue to build on our position as a leader in the pool industry and we expect 2021 to be a strong year for new products introductions for Pentair. Water Treatment, which was formerly called Water Solutions is more appropriately named given the breadth of our offering in the markets we serve within Consumer Solutions. Water Treatment as a reminder is comprised of components and systems for the residential and commercial markets. While Water Treatment overall was up 2%, it has two very different stories to tell. To level set, Water Treatment revenue is derived from roughly 60% residential and 40% commercial markets. Within the residential facing businesses, we experienced near double-digit growth as consumers became more comfortable around dealers back into their homes to test their water and install new systems. We have seen an increase in demand for our brands as consumers continue to focus on the water quality in their homes. On the commercial side, sales were down in the mid-teens which is a dramatic improvement from the declines experienced in the second quarter. While restaurants are experiencing a slow recovery, and traffic levels remain depressed, our portfolio and focus on the quick service restaurant market provided some relief to the depressed overall market. We have had some success with new offerings like Total Water Management, which is a new seamless end-to-end service where we specify and install high-quality solutions and provide ongoing service to ensure consistent, great quality water. While in the early days of offering this new service, we are seeing strong interest from new and existing customers. We expect the food service sector to remain challenged for the near-term, but we are encouraged that we are not declining at the same rate of the industry and are identifying the new areas of growth despite the challenging environment currently. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Q3 2020 Industrial and Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial and Flow Technologies or IFT saw sales decline 3% as residential and irrigation flow through in the quarter, while the other two businesses continued to be negatively impacted by a global freeze in capital spending. Segment income decreased 24% and return on sales declined 360 basis points to 13%. Productivity was challenged in the quarter, principally as a function of a mix with lower margin backlog in addition to lower revenue spread across a higher fixed cost base. Residential and irrigation flow grew 6% in the quarter, following a 12% decline last quarter. While distributors are still not stocking across the board, demand for some of the higher moving items continued throughout the quarter. The business experienced gains across all channels, particularly in the Pro channel and at retail. Within agriculture, our OEM sales were flat, while aftermarkets returned to growth. Commercial and infrastructure flow improved on a sequential basis as we continue to ship our lower margin infrastructure backlogs. This mix negatively impacted the overall segment margin performance, particularly the drag on productivity. Orders in both commercial and infrastructure were down in the quarter, but the quote funnel in infrastructure remains active. Industrial Filtrations continue to be negatively impacted by a global capital spending freeze, but the business saw the rate of decline improve sequentially. In the larger food and beverage and sustainable gas businesses, we have experienced softness in both components and longer cycle projects. The other niches within Industrial Filtration have also experienced softness. Given this business overall is more exposed to capital spending, we would expect the order activities to resume in early 2021 as customers revisit their capital budgets. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. While our sales and income performance were encouraging this quarter, we were exceptionally pleased with our cash flow performance. For the first nine months of the year, we have generated over $450 million of free cash flow. The third quarter benefited from strong pool sales spread evenly throughout the quarter and our ability to collect on those receivables. We talked last quarter about the seasonality of our cash flow with the second quarter historically being the strongest period with a later start to the pool season and the shift of business to the third quarter, this contributed to higher than usual cash flow in the quarter. We entered the quarter with a net debt debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.3 times, which is at the lower range of where we have talked about our target levels longer-term. Between our $900 million revolver and no meaningful cash outlays outside of the dividends, we have more than adequate capacity to fund our growth initiatives both organic and inorganic. We are trying to remain disciplined with our capital and we feel good about the strength of our balance sheet and expect to deliver free cash flow for the year greater than our net income. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Full Year 2020 Pentair Outlook. Following our strong third quarter performance, we have updated our full year sales outlook of approximately $2.95 billion and our adjusted EPS range is now approximately $2.35 to $2.40. Below the line, we expect corporate expense to $60 million to $65 million, net interest other of approximately $28 million, a full year tax rate of 15% and average shares to be around $167 million. We expect free cash flow to be greater than 100% of net income. I’d now like to turn the call back to John to provide an update on some of our key strategies.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Bob. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled Our Longer-Term Aspirations. Our first two years are focused on developing our new standalone strategy, aligning our organization to our strategy, improving our new product pipeline and growth capabilities, and developing the right operating rhythm. Growing the top-line organically, consistently and predictably is our main area of focus. We start to growing the entire portfolio at least greater than GDP and delivering income from our core businesses, and we realize that not all businesses will contribute evenly, while we believe that our Consumer Solutions businesses are well-positioned to drive above average growth and are important to building out additional legs of the business and creating our future. In addition, we continue to focus on improving our commercialization process, investing in our digital transformation to deliver more effortless customer experiences, and building our brand. We are focused on accelerating fewer, larger growth actions including expanding our content in pool and building out our residential water treatment offerings. Within RFT, we are exploring a few promising growth areas around sustainable gas and smart solutions within our food and beverage business unit. In addition to growing organically, we believe that there are attractive areas to add tuck-in and bolt-on acquisitions. We expect this will primarily be within our residential, commercial water treatment business and includes both products and services. The addition of Pelican and RainSoft portfolio have allowed us to both accelerate our learning and improve our growth performance. We are currently focused on building a robust opportunity funnel given many of the businesses we are looking at are smaller and privately owned. We are also focused on driving productivity and cash flow, while optimizing our ROIC. PIMS, the Pentair Integrated Management System is an extensive toolkit that we must continue to deploy effectively. This includes not just our existing business and employees, but also future acquisitions and hires. We must ensure that PIMS is truly engrained in our DNA. We do not have a capital-intensive business and we believe this asset light business model will help us further optimize our longer-term investments. We also believe there are further opportunities in our G&A spend that can become sources of self-funding for our growth investments. Our aspiration to become a top quartile performer in our space is well within our control and we believe we are well positioned across our portfolio. Please turn to Slide 11 labeled Living Our “Win Right” Values Through ESG. One of the foundations of our culture is our longstanding commitment to our “Win Right” Values. These values help guide our organization which we work to achieve our highest potential. We are dedicated to holding ourselves accountable with the highest ethical standards as we drive to deliver on our commitments. Our focus and our mission help to empower employees to make a difference within and beyond the workplace. As we experienced in our recent 2019 corporate responsibility report, sustainability is not an initiative, but it’s core to how we operate, the products we create and the customers we serve. Our goal is to demonstrate leadership as responsible corporate citizens in every country and community where we conduct business and whatever our products that put into use. As we highlighted last quarter, over 60% of our solutions support water efficiency and roughly 75% of our solutions support energy efficiency. Our sustainable gas offerings are supporting CO2 reductions and reuse across the industry. At Pentair, we are committed to building and advancing unity, equity and inclusion in our company and in our communities. We have amplified our focus on diversity and leadership roles and bench strength. We are committed to safety, and healthy workplace. We are focused on philanthropy and we walk the talk as our efforts spans six continents and reached more than 9.4 million in 2019. We have strong governance practices. We have a diverse Board of Directors, which includes three female directors. The majority of our Board is independent and our Board is led by an independent, non-Executive Chairman. We also have an anonymous employee helpline to report compliance or other concerns with dedicated compliance and audit functions. We also have a code of conduct in place for our employees and our suppliers to help align around responsible, sustainable business practices. I would now like to turn the call over to Mariama for Q&A, after which I will have a few closing remarks. Mariama, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi. Your line is open.
Aton Bookbinder:
Hi, this is Aton Bookbinder on for Andy.
John Stauch:
Hey, good morning.
Aton Bookbinder:
So, 46% growth in pool, could you give us more of a breakdown of what you are seeing? Did you see an uptick from the normal 20% of original equipment business? And can you discuss any progress in catering for the share on the pool pad?
John Stauch:
Yes, we were very pleased as we mentioned in the prepared remarks. Coming into the quarter, demand was high, but making sure that we were able to fill that demand which was extremely important and we were able to ramp up manufacturing production significantly. So, again, pleased with the execution and very pleased with all of the works of our frontline workers. The 46% was really as I mentioned across the board, across all product categories. Demand remains strong going into the fourth quarter and we are optimistic getting into 2021 as well. I would say that, I think a good way to look at that would be spread it over Q2 and Q3, because as mentioned in Bob’s remarks and talked for the last earnings call. We were catching up and we still are catching up to what the demand is in the industry. As far as expansion on the pad, I mean, Bob mentioned, heaters is a category that has substantially grown this year. That would be another product that we probably added as far as the content on the pool and we are very pleased with our automation pull through over the last couple quarters as well. And we think we are getting an uptick in our automation sales as more homeowners enjoy the ability to manage their pool more remotely or utilize it as it’s controlled through their iPhone. So, quite pleased with those two upticks. And as I mentioned, we ended the quarter even catching up as well.
Aton Bookbinder:
Thank you. And just as a follow-up. For margin in IFT pulled back sequentially despite higher volumes, you’ve been in the second quarter, can you talk about some of the factors that impacted margins and what you see as the outlook for margin while rightsizing the segment going forward?
John Stauch:
Yes, from an overall margin perspective and also mentioned this somewhat in the prepared remarks is that, we did have a catch up of items like compensation-related expenses in the quarter. Rebates were higher than typical as the pool revenue grew significantly again ramping up production, expediting inventory to make sure we capped up it with the demand. But those were some of the headwinds that we saw in the quarter. I would say that that Q4 from a drop through perspective does return to more normalized levels.
Aton Bookbinder:
Thank you. That’s helpful. I’ll pass it along.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
John Stauch:
Steve?
Operator:
Steve Tusa, your line is open.
John Stauch:
Steve? You are on mute.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Lee :
Hey guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe as a follow-up to the prior one a little bit if you guys could, can you quantify a bit on some of the trends here heading into Q4? I know you got a point of pricing in Q2, but then nothing in Q3 and then productivity did swing from being kind of a good guy to a slight bad guy, as well in the quarter. Can you kind of talk about trends on those metrics in the context of Q4 expectations? And then, I guess, separately any early read on those two heading into 2021?
John Stauch:
Yes. I would say that, from a pricing and productivity perspective, a lot of the benefits in those two areas were somewhat masked, pricing by the rebates and then productivity by some of the compensation-related cost and some of the expedited and ramp up cost relating to pool. So below that, it was very much in line with kind of what we saw in Q2 and as I mentioned, price and productivity to do return to more normalized levels in the fourth quarter.
Brian Lee :
Okay. Fair enough. So, maybe, not to put words in your mouth, but a point – a positive point on each if we are thinking about putting that into quantified terms for Q4 and heading into 2021?
John Stauch:
That would make sense at this point.
Brian Lee :
Okay. Fair enough. And then, just a second question on the guidance here would imply low-single-digit revenue decline implied in 4Q year-on-year. Can you give us a sense of how that breaks down between Consumer Solutions and IFT? And then also, I know you guys just put up a very big 3Q. So was there some pull forward activity or just trying to get a sense for the sequentials here into 4Q? Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Okay, I view, last year’s Q4 as having been a solid quarter. This year’s Q4. Pool will continue to grow significantly. Demand is good. We satisfy the natural demand here in the fourth quarter. So, pool continues to do well. The residential businesses continue to grow, so outside of pool and the residential piece within IFT, we continue to face headwinds on volume within commercial and industrial. And so, that is what’s bringing the overall growth rate down. We are hard at work in terms of addressing productivity challenges within the IFT business. And so, as I mentioned, again in my prepared remarks, we expect that the demand to continue for full in the early part of the year and we expect that IFT productivity will improve as well.
Brian Lee :
All right. Thanks. I’ll pass it on.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hey. Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Steve. How are you doing?
Steve Tusa:
Sorry if I missed in the – missing the bell.
John Stauch:
No worries.
Steve Tusa:
This morning, I guess, just getting out of bed here. So, just as we – I am not going to ask you to make a call on the weather or COVID next year. But when you guys kind of look out to what’s coming your way in particular on kind of the regulatory driver, when we turn the corner the next year, is it’s just like a really hard comp or is there something that kind of bridges you into future years and you can kind of keep this growth at a reasonable level obviously per pool, not saying that 20% is sustainable, but maybe just curious as to how you kind of gauge next year?
Robert Fishman:
Hey. This is, Bob. Let me take a shot at it and then I’ll let John add to it. He is probably better at predicting the weather than I am. But yes, we had to net Q1, Q2, Steve, basis easier comparisons, obviously within the pool business. Demand is strong in the fourth quarter and we expect it will remain strong in the – as we go into 2021. So, feeling good about that. As we face the tougher comparison in the back half next year, primarily in Q3, we should have a number of things going our way. We will have a number of new product introductions. We’ll have the DOE regulation. We’ll have the IFT business that’s facing softer compares and hopefully an improved capital spending outlook. So, those are the things that could help us in the back half. But in terms of the first half of the year, again, much of it is pool and residential-driven.
Steve Tusa:
Got it.
John Stauch:
I think, Steve, we don’t guess the weather and COVID. We are expecting pool to have a very strong year next year, as well based upon the dealer activity and the pools and the pent-up capacity. Don’t know what it looks like by quarter yet. But I think Bob has given you a pretty good look at Q1 and Q2 easier compares and Q3 obviously we’ve discussed the growth maybe slightly more challenged. But at the same time, we’ll probably have the same desires of the dealers in the channel to ensure the rebate is matched and I think we are expecting good year. And what we are doing now is, how do we get the IFT margins roll in. How do we get the year-over-year contributions of IFT to produce a lot of value next year. That’s how we are thinking about 2021, Steve, and we are excited about the way we expect to end.
Steve Tusa:
And then, just on the earnings bridge, productivity was little weak this quarter. Is there anything in kind of price and productivity in the fourth quarter that would influence the result there? Is it really just kind of a function of the volumes?
John Stauch:
It really is volume related as was mentioned, our guide suggests, that’s down low single-digits in the fourth quarter. A strong pool offset by continued challenge in commercial and industrial. But price and productivity will return to more normalized levels, because they are facing the Q3 headwinds that we saw around rebates and catch-up compensation.
Steve Tusa:
What I don’t quite understand about the fourth quarter is that, IFT wasn’t that bad this quarter. I mean, is there something that makes it worse next quarter year-over-year?
John Stauch:
Well, I think, we are starting to see the – we had the backlogs in – carried in from Q2 into Q3, Steve, that we’re able to shift through the backlog that we have and now we are trying to build the backlog, but mostly orders that we’ve taken in Q3 are really shippable next year. So, we are not seeing our customers step up and want most of their products in IFT in Q4. And I think they are looking out in the horizon and trying to work more their deliveries in the next year. So, we’ll weather the storm in Q4 with IFT. But I do think we are starting to build the order rates and coming off the bottom as we look at IFT going forward.
Steve Tusa:
Right. So it shifts from kind of a weak 2Q into 3Q and then, I guess, the step back down, it seems like with the economy where it is, to go from positive 10 to negative 5 or negative 4 even is, it seems like a real kind of step back and it doesn’t seem like the trend in the business supported that step back.
John Stauch:
Yes. I agree you, Steve. I also just – I know where it’s usual compared to the most of the industrial companies. But Q4 is not a highly strong quarter for Pentair. What mitigates that a little bit is the pool early by in the shipments of pool into the channel. Other than that, we tend to have a slightly weaker industrial end sales.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. Makes sense. All right. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Hey, Steve, I know you’ve always been focused on cash. I did want to mention that we felt that linearity of operations to drive great cash flow and I just want to make a note that that came through this quarter.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. Got it. Sorry. I meant to say great quarter guys. Great quarter. I meant to say that really. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Cash matters.
Operator:
Next question comes from Brett Linzey with Vertical. Your line is open.
Brett Linzey:
Hey. Good morning guys. Congrats on the quarter.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Robert Fishman:
Thank you.
Brett Linzey:
Hey. I appreciate the color on the top-line for next year, but just want to focus on the cost side, you talked about some catch-up here on incentive comp here in the quarter. How does that roll into next year? And then, as you think about the temporary cost that come back, some of the restructuring savings you are going to have that do rollover. What sort of the netting effect of those next year and what that inform for incremental margins for the total company?
Robert Fishman:
At this time, now we continue to be hard at work driving those productivity improvements. I mean, the fact that we are booking compensation this year means that will be a headwind next year which can be a good thing. I had talked earlier about opportunities within G&A. We had a benchmarking study done and it’s apparent that our G&A structure is really sized more for a much larger company kind of post-spin. And so, we have, call it a three to four year runway here to not only improve how we spend our G&A dollars but to get back closer to benchmark. That study suggested that our spend today is roughly 150 to 200 basis points higher than our peers. And so we’ve got an opportunity within G&A. We’ve got an opportunity within complexity reduction within the IFT business primarily in skew reduction. There is also opportunities within supply chain and procurement to become more efficient. So, plenty of things that we are working on now that should drive margin expansion next year.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. Great. And just as a follow-up on the IFT margins, you mentioned the negative mix in backlog. Was that a one quarter year-over-year event? Or should we expect some drag there for another couple quarters before it starts to normalize?
John Stauch:
We are seeing a little bit of mixed challenges within the commercial and infrastructure space. We are hopeful that that then normalizes going into 2021.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. Great. I will leave it there and pass it along. Thanks, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is open.
Joseph Giordano :
Hi, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Robert Fishman:
Morning.
Joseph Giordano :
Hey, I just wanted to kind of follow-up a little bit on the regulatory pushing to next year and how do you think of the positive benefits on the price that you are going to get versus what maybe the volume benefit that you’ll get ahead of that from pull-through a single speed? How should we think of all this in totality and maybe are you entering 2021 with a higher level of kind of visible backlog into the first half?
John Stauch:
Well, two different answers. I mean, firstly, we are heading into next year, still catching up with the demand that we feel the dealer is trying to satisfy for the consumers. So we feel like we are going to be catching up for several quarters on the demand pull-through in pool. As it relates to DOE, I am always cautious on these transitions as to how the industry reaction and smooth that these transitions over time. So, I don’t think there is a huge windfall necessarily in any one particular quarter. I think it plays out thoughtfully over time as people work around state-by-state and building out the inventory and still putting in the older product. The margin, actually the operating margin or the drop through margin on the variable speed is slightly lower, but the variable speed pump in itself is almost 1.8 times more expensive than the single speed. So, overall, from a content and a simplification of our business model and giving people quite frankly a better pump, we think those things will work their way out over 2021 and 2022. But I think it will be a smoother transition over those periods.
Joseph Giordano :
Fair enough. And on the IFT, as you look through your total company and new product introduction being very focused on some of the resi applications and your capital deployment likely targeting there. What’s the business evaluation process looking out on IFT, like, how core are all these businesses are you thinking about them? Has that changed at all over the last two years?
John Stauch:
I certainly understand that the margins in IFT at this point in time are not where we want them. They are definitely not where leadership wants them. But I do want to complement the team. This is a truly global business. This is a hugely complex business. It’s an engineering oriented business and if COVID has been hard from a manufacturing standpoint across one part of the portfolio, it’s certainly been really hard to the IFT team. That could be more proud of how they stepped up and they are answering the bell as far as getting their customers the products. Those are lot of inefficiencies in the way that you ship product or you deliver a product in an engineered order business when you got challenges as we are experiencing with stay home orders and COVID. So, again, I just want to say that I think some of this is going to work its way out over time naturally as we get better at working through the new rules. The second piece is, we are seeing the activity around the focus in the portfolio. We believe we have a really investible industrial business where we provide technology, especially smart technology, the membrane technology to a lot of sophisticated customers around the world that we are getting a lot of momentum on IoT related to those products. We are also participating in CO2 recovery and CO2 use that’s getting a lot of push from the regulatories and it’s environmentally-friendly product. So really excited about some of those growth aspects. We got a good RNI business. It’s not going to be a rapid grower, but it’s got high margins and contributes nicely to the cash in the P&L and we got some project challenges in C&I. But we got a new leader there and we are focused on what we need to do to write the shift there and make sure that we are going more after the aftermarket products, so less after the projects. But either we are going to see recovery in 2021 in a meaningful way in margin and IFT and I think over the longer haul, this is going to be a good contributor to Pentair’s portfolio.
Joseph Giordano :
And if I could just sneak one for Bob, it’s near about six months now, obviously interesting time to be starting a job anywhere, just curious as to – as you look about what you thought going in, in terms of how to budget and how do view this process like, what’s gone most according to plan? What’s been a little bit different and what kind of changes do you – are you kind of adapting to?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. Thank you for asking that. It’s been a great decision from my perspective to join Pentair. I could not be more pleased with the people that I work with on a day-to-day basis and the opportunity for the company. So, for me, that I have joined the company that has a great foundation. But there are opportunities for improvement. The things that I am probably more focused on is around helping to drive consistent organic growth. We’ve implemented a number of processes around driving growth on a category level. We are developing better analytics. So think of analytics of products and customers as opposed to necessarily just P&L. We have opportunities to drive efficiencies and margin expansion. And I am excited about both Consumer Solutions and IFT. So, from my perspective, a really great future here at Pentair and look forward to the start of 2021.
Joseph Giordano :
Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Rob Wertheimer :
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Rob Wertheimer :
So, you’ve talked on this in a number of different ways, but just to sort of get a broader overview, you mentioned just trying to catch up with the strong demand that’s being going on with pool. Can you just sort of talk across the segments on the backlog/channel inventory versus normal. They are mostly fully caught up or whether the channel has a bit bunches on gains, just sort of characterize that across segments. Thank you.
John Stauch:
I would say that the catching up is generally a theme that applies across the portfolio. I think right now, we believe that inventory levels are correctly right sized with the exception of what we think is still a channel that needs more inventory for pool. But I think most of our distributors and dealers are being prudent even in areas like commercial filtration where there hasn’t been any pre-stocking ahead of the expectation of restaurants opening or hospitality opening. So, I think right now, we are seeing a really nice situation where the demand is equal to the shipments that we are experiencing.
Rob Wertheimer :
Okay. That’s perfect. And if I may just ask a little bit more of a structural question, you mentioned, a consumer water treatment how you guys are able to get into homes again sort of – I know, you are working on education and just people aware of the good solutions that there are for the home. Can you touch a little bit on what the structural growth drivers are there? Whether it’s signing up dealers or how you are getting that education out and how you really sort of take advantage of a reasonably lower opportunity? Thanks.
John Stauch:
There has been tremendous search demand. So people on the internet searching for water filtration or water treatment needs and Pentair isn’t a brand that you recognize if you do that and we are going to be. And the consumer cold demand that we think people want is the right solution for their particular need. Water is not consistent both from an input across the world and it’s certainly not consistent from the way that you desire your water and Pentair has all the technology capability to take whatever input water you have and deliver the quality and the pace of the water that you want and that’s what we think the biggest opportunity for Pentair is and we think we have to build out the channel and the consumer pool and the demand and we have a lot of new products we are launching next year to do that to make you aware. And the second piece would it be make sure that we are aligned with our service channel to be able to meet the demand and then give you the technology you need. So we’ve been at this for a couple of years. We’ve learned a lot from the Pelican and the Aquion acquisitions. And we are poised to really make a lot of progress in 2021 and 2022 around the residential water treatment side. So we are excited, excited about the progress, excited about the learnings, and excited about the future.
Rob Wertheimer :
Excellent. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital. Your line is open.
Deane Dray :
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Hello, Deane.
Robert Fishman:
Hi, Deane.
Deane Dray :
Hey. Hearing some more about this total water management initiative you have in commercial water treatment, just by the sound of it, what seem to be some of what you be doing at one of the major coffee chains globally. So, could you just size for us what the applications would be, what the opportunity is, what kind of investment? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes, Deane, I mean, that’s really a reference to – there are franchises and/or restaurants mainly that don’t necessarily the higher wealth of the company-owned stores in which franchisees are buying a lot of equipment and we are really giving them an expertise and allowing them to lease those solutions from us, right. And really building a connectivity between us and that end-customer and renting them or leasing them the solution instead of them buying the solution. That’s what total water management is about, Deane.
Deane Dray :
Great. And is there an investment – a front investment that you need to be making? And can you give a commentary?
John Stauch:
Yes. We are obviously putting that unit into the field and instead of collecting the revenue from that unit at once, we are collecting that revenue over time as a way to promote our solutions. So, I mean, it’s in its infancy right now. Several million dollars of revenue, Deane. And we just want to make sure it’s a solution that we have out there for our customers that they choose to rent that model and we are doing them an IoT enabled. So we know if they are being used and how they are being used and we have the ability to work with that partner to make sure they are optimizing their water experience. We are excited about that.
Deane Dray :
Good to hear. And then, on capital allocation, just given the strength in the balance sheet, given the cash flow and the line of sight on your cash flow, where do buybacks that in priority the stock sitting right by our calculations at the low end of its relative PE range for last three years. So, it really does look attractive if you want to make that case. So, just update us on buyback plans.
Robert Fishman:
From a buyback perspective, we start most years with the goal of buying back roughly $150 million of shares. This year we have done $115 million in the first quarter and then we suspended our buyback period our buybacks as we set free cash flow and liquidity. Obviously, as free cash flow has been robust the last two quarters, we – you’ll see in the Q later today, we’ve removed the suspension around buybacks and certainly have that opportunity as we close out the year and move into next year.
Deane Dray :
Great. That makes sense. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thanks, Deane.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Jeff.
Robert Fishman:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
Just want to go back to pool and kind of the momentum in the fourth quarter. I mean, I think if I hear you, you are seeing strong underlying demand and you expect that next year and inventories are still low. So, just, any read on further catch-up on inventories in the fourth quarter and what your distributors are saying about that early buy?
Robert Fishman:
I’ll start on that one. Again, I view Q4 as being satisfying natural demand. So, really not dipping into early buys, which is a good situation as we get into 2021. And so, Q4 is all about delivering on the orders that we have. That then sets ourselves up for a good start to 2021 as we deliver on early buys and more of the standard orders that will come.
Jeff Hammond:
And is it fair to say, like, underlying demand is, if you kind of put 2Q and 3Q together is like high-single-digit is kind of the order runrate into 4Q?
John Stauch:
I think it’d be higher than that, Jeff. I, for sure believe it’s double-digit as far as the underlying demand – actually double-digits.
Jeff Hammond:
And are you doing something different with early buy incentives to disincent early buy or?
John Stauch:
No.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Okay. And then just quick on IFT, in your presentation you talked about growing the entire portfolio about GDP which would include IFT, but in the earlier question, the focus kind of continue to be more on the margin and margin improvement. So just talk about what changes to kind of drive the growth profile for that segment going forward?
John Stauch:
Yes, I can just focus. I mean, there are some of these businesses that it’s just doing the basics that’s going to generate 2% to 3% of growth and that’s okay. I think some of them are margin opportunity and let’s just do the 2% to 3% consistently and predictably every single quarter and let’s do it well. There is other businesses as I mentioned stable gas and our IoT offerings in F&B that have an opportunity to be high-single-digits over a cycle. And that’s where we want to focus and so it’s really disciplined, Jeff. When you have projects in front of you, you could chase whatever projects you want and by the time you realize the lower margins, you are challenged and some of that still exists in this portfolio and we are working through that. And that’s what we don’t want to do anymore. So we want each business to play its role in Pentair and by choosing what that is and making sure they are focused on it, I think they can be a big contributor to Pentair’s outcomes.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.
Scott Graham :
Hey. Good morning. Very nice quarter guys.
John Stauch:
Thanks, Scott. Appreciate that.
Robert Fishman:
Morning.
Scott Graham :
So, I wanted to understand a little bit about, I guess maybe I am just kind of not put a final point on this for the fourth quarter. The low end of the EPS guidance suggest a quarter very similar to the second quarter yet, your highest margin businesses, demand is up double-digits, you are saying productivity is going to be better or the tax rate goes little bit the other way perhaps, maybe there is some cost to push things out the door because of COVID and bottlenecks. But is there something that I am missing here? I mean, typically, they are a like a flood factor in the fourth quarter?
John Stauch:
No, Scott, I mean, it is simply this. The hardest thing for companies today is to produce a low end of the guidance range when incorporates which you think a hiccup related to COVID could be that is it. We are guessing at that end of the range to, how a second wave or a third wave how wanted to describe the COVID might impact Pentair. We know nothing today that would suggest it. But when you put a range out there, we want to have a range that we can address throughout the quarter, that’s simply what it is, Scott.
Scott Graham :
Understood. Thank you for that. A further question about your capital allocation, but maybe more from the M&A side you talked about water treatment being an area of potential targeting. Could 2021, your - the residential businesses are doing better, you have a better – you have a better understanding of what consumers are buying off of your kind of very long and elaborate study of consumer buying habits and desires. Could 2021 be a pretty big year for M&A with you guys in water treatment?
John Stauch:
I hope so. I mean, we are continuing to look at options, Scott. I definitely look at M&As and accelerators to what we can do organically. Water treatment is definitely a focus area. I think where – that’s where the funnel is more robust and I certainly hope it’s accelerated.
Scott Graham :
Got it. Last question. The productivity number obviously being a bit of net number was depressed by the things that you guys talk about. What was the gross productivity for the quarter?
John Stauch:
It was more in line with what you would have seen in Q2. So, and then again, I had mentioned that that will return in the fourth quarter. So, productivity continues to be a consistent enhancer of the margins. It’s just unfortunate that that in Q3 we caught up on compensation and on the pricing side had higher rebates. But behind the scenes or underneath that, our gross number is very much in line with what we saw in the second quarter.
Scott Graham :
Right, which I also know I think includes some of your productivity, your cost out actions that you talked about two quarters – or a quarter and a half ago, and I guess, I am wondering have enacted any of those that we need to enact any of the, call it 80 plus million dollars that you had identified as the potential to lower cost this year?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. We – our goal was to take out cost in line with the volume drop and we’ve done a reasonably good job there. A lot of hard work has gone on within manufacturing and supply chain. We continue to spend less on what we call purchase spend, discretionary spend. We’ve renegotiated. We took a hard look at policies across the board from travel and entertainment all the way to how we train people, recruit, relocation. And so, those are finding their way through, as well and on a full year basis will help 2021.
Scott Graham :
Understood. Thanks. Appreciated.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
Great cash flow quarter there, John.
John Stauch:
Thank you. Thanks for noticing.
Nathan Jones:
No worries. A follow-up here on pool. You guys got off to a slow start to the selling days in 2Q 2019 around some of the bad weather in the southern states and the big states where pool installations happened. And last year you were pretty cautious telling that being there was labor constrain, it was difficult to catch-up with some of those things as the year went by. This year, in 2Q, 3Q of 2020, you are probably closer to 20% overall growth. Can you try to square those comments from last year to this year? You were expecting to be on a catch-up because of labor constraints in the later part of 2019, yet the industry is being able to support such fantastic growth this year over the last six months. And I am sure there was some inventory restocking, I know you did pool cope and now that is where selling out their own inventory in 2Q. I am sure you were catching up with some inventory refill into them in 3Q. But just if you could square those comments?
John Stauch:
Yes, I can, Nathan. Let me just give you some – the way I think about it. I think, given the weather we know happen this year, because there was a good weather year. So let’s say nothing abnormal happened against this. We would expect it a double-digit full year, primarily because of the challenges we had last year and where we thought overall inventory was, I mean, overall double-digit. I think, let’s say, we were close to mid-teens. I don’t think we are seeing more than the 5 point tailwind, in my opinion from what would be the COVID order rates, because I do think there is a constraint in the industry anyway. I think what we are hearing and feeling is the demand is going to extend and that extension will be managed through the capacity that you are mentioning. So, that’s why we are sitting here today relatively confident we are going to have a good year next year.
Nathan Jones:
It does seem like there is still plenty of demand left going into next year to continue to see growth in the pool business in 2021. I know it’s a long way out to look at 2022, but do you think we are pulling some demand forward there and potentially that your below average growth for a year or two after we get past COVID if that ever happens?
John Stauch:
Nathan, I would not guess – I haven’t figured out 2021 yet, so to – just I am feeling 2022 is - like a COVID, I got elections, there is all kinds of things that have to unfold first. But I think which is being in people, I think people are really vacations might not be in the horizon and they are choosing destinations for second homes that they can retreat to and I think that has been a unique pull across the entire industry and most of those states are where a pool is in the backyard.
Nathan Jones:
I think that’s a fair evaluation. Just want to follow-up on Jeff’s question about the grow – all your business greater than GDP. Does the number of business, primarily the industrial businesses that – the last number of years have not been able to do that. Do you have different strategies that you are going to deploy that now to get those businesses up to growing GDP? And what are the plans to those businesses if you are unable to get those up to growing at GDP levels? \
John Stauch:
Yes. I think, just to put in perspective, we have product categories that sit below our businesses and there is some 23 of them and when we talk about that, we're talking about averaging and if something is not able to grow, we would look at how it's doing across its cycle and is it still doing well relative to the cycle that it's in. But we want to make sure predictably and consistently that we can deliver that core every single year and that it starts with a positive contribution to our shareowners. The second piece is now let's talk about the strategic growth of our plan on top of it and we are trying to get both and that's not something we've done consistently over time and I want to be consistent with both of those. We need a stable core growing and then a few incremental things you can put on top of it. And then if you could put M&A on top of that, now you are really – you are really lightened up and that's our goal.
Nathan Jones :
And just one clarification. I think I heard you say you believe that the inventory levels in per pool in the channel are balanced at the moment?
John Stauch:
No, I think we're still catching up. We are balanced across the rest of the portfolio, that's enough in pool. Yes.
Nathan Jones :
Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Emily Shu :
Hey. Good morning. This is Emily Shu on for Andrew Obin. Thanks for squeezing me in.
John Stauch:
No problem.
Emily Shu :
Were there any supply chain adjustments made in the quarter to deal with the outsized pool demand and the catch-up? If you could just give some color on the overall state of your supply chain, that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Robert Fishman :
I'll take that. We've talked about emerging from COVID stronger. I would say that's an example. We've added second suppliers where it made sense closer to the markets we serve. But generally speaking, Q3 was a quarter of ramping up manufacturing productions, adding a second shift, adding more people. So, I do think we've addressed the supply chain challenges, but also given us more optionality around manufacturing production.
Emily Shu :
Okay. Great. And then – and my last question is just with the federal election coming up and potential change in administration, have you guys assessed if there could be any impacts to the business from a potential green new deal? Thanks.
John Stauch:
While we are obviously, we are learning how to balance risks or opportunities all the time between tariffs and COVID and now election. I think, we are a sustainable solutions provider. So we would expect to benefit from any movement in green initiatives or societal changes that affect the environment in a positive way.
Emily Shu :
Okay. Thanks so much guys. And congrats on the quarter.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Robert Fishman :
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Saree Boroditsky :
Hey. Thanks for squeezing me in.
John Stauch:
No problem.
Saree Boroditsky :
So with the implications that pool demand remains strong next year, how are you thinking about the opportunity to push through pricing since it was really not a contributor to sales in the quarter given rebates?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think, listen, we – as Bob mentioned, we are deep in the planning cycle right now and one of the key inputs to any pricing decision is what are you seeing with inflation and what's going on with suppliers and material. And we'll make those assessments and based upon those assessments, we'll make sure that we're pricing effectively. So, this is the time we do that and if we need to make adjustments, we make adjustments.
Saree Boroditsky :
Great. And then just following up on the 150 to 200 basis points in G&A opportunity. Can you touch on how you're thinking about the timing on this and how we should think about if any benefit into next year?
John Stauch:
We think of it as a three-year runway more or less linear, so not back-end loaded. So improvements. And again, as the improvement in margins will come in two forms, it will be some cost out, but also avoiding cost as revenue ramps. So, I think it's good that we've got a three-year past year and we are hard at work at operationalizing that improvement.
Saree Boroditsky :
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.
Trish Gorman :
Hey, good morning. This is Trish on for Julian. Maybe just one more follow-up on seasonality, I know you mentioned perhaps there is some contingency in the guide. But the implied Q4 guide suggests sales decline kind of high-single digit sequentially and then, versus normal seasonality at mid-single-digit increases. And so you mentioned IFT kind of normal seasonality it's typically down into the fourth quarter versus the third. Should we expect consumer to follow normal seasonality as well? I know you said those satisfy kind of natural demand. But I think that's typically up quarter-over-quarter into the fourth quarter.
John Stauch:
Yes. So – so simply stated, I think our normal seasonality is Q2 is our strongest quarter followed by Q3, Q4 and then Q1. And pool is the strongest in Q2 and Q3, because that - how it ramps for the season and then it usually has what's called an early buy, which is a level loading of the distribution base so that we can maintain our employment levels and satisfy the industry demand. Other than that, we tend to see a tail-off with the Christmas season meaning that we've only produced probably to mid-December and shipping products in mid-December. So, the natural tendency is for Q4 to be a little soft across our particular lines. As Bob mentioned, we had a good Q4 last year. And so our IFT businesses, they are still experiencing that headwind on a year-over-year basis and that's simply what the challenge is in Q4.
Trish Gorman :
Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then, just maybe one follow-up on free cash flow, given the strength to-date, as we look out, how should we think about working capital movements? And maybe free cash flow into 2021, do you think it's possible to grow free cash flow next year, given the products have built some supply in pool?
Robert Fishman :
For free cash flow, again, our starting point is 100% of net income and that will continue to be our goal. I mean, to me, it speaks to the quality of the earnings that we have in here at Pentair. One thing as John alluded to was, there is nothing like linearity to improve free cash flow, either from a quarterly perspective or from an in-quarter perspective. So, with the strength that we are seeing in pool, our factories are busy from the start of the quarter to the end of the quarter, and that revenue that comes in early in the quarter allows us to collect that by the end of the quarter. So, I would say linearity will continue to be in our favor. We'll continue to drive free cash flow at or higher than net income. And also remain disciplined around things like CapEx.
Trish Gorman :
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to John Stauch for closing remarks.
John Stauch :
Thank you for joining us today. We continue to believe that Pentair has a strong foundation and portfolio of businesses to build upon. We have a strong purpose, mission, and vision, focused on delivering smart, sustainable solutions that empower our customers make the most of life's most essential resources. We believe that we are in attractive spaces that are expanding. We are a leader in the pool industry and our Water Treatment business is helping us become an even more integral player in both residential and commercial water treatment. We believe we have the right enterprise strategy, businesses, talent and culture. For our “Win Right” values to our Pentair Integrated Management System, we are enabling all of our employees to continuously improve. Finally, we continue to prioritize providing superior customer experiences and delivering more predictable and consistent results. Thank you for your continued interest. Mariama, you can conclude the call. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q2 2020 Pentair plc Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Mariama, and welcome to Pentair's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us today. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2020 performance as well as our full year 2020 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions]. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide #4 titled Executive Summary. First and foremost, we hope that everyone remains healthy and safe. While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to create uncertainty, our focus on the health and safety of our employees, our customers and our businesses continue to be our priority. Throughout the quarter, we built strong COVID-19-management capabilities, which are now part of our standard work processes. We recognize that there will continue to be disruptions due to the pandemic, but we believe we are better positioned to help manage any potential impact. While we had withdrawn our guidance entering the second quarter, we were generally pleased with the overall performance of the company. We anticipated that our commercial- and industrial-facing businesses would face challenges as global capital spending came to a halt in April, but the rate of decline did moderate as the quarter progressed. Our residential-facing businesses, including our leading pool franchise, saw healthy improvements during May and June and exited the quarter with continued improvement in trends. As consumers sheltered in place during the quarter, it appears swimming pools were being opened earlier and demand for swimming pools overall grew, resulting in increased demand for our equipment. Consumers also remain focused on their water quality, which led to improved orders for our Water Solutions business. We are extremely pleased with our free cash flow performance as we generated over $400 million of free cash flow during our important second quarter. We use this cash flow to reduce our outstanding revolver balance and the result was further strengthening of our liquidity profile. We continue to position ourselves to take advantage of opportunities as business recovers. Residential comprises roughly 60% of our portfolio, and we believe these businesses should continue to benefit from improved demand. While we anticipate that the rest of the portfolio serving commercial and industrial will likely remain challenged, we remain focused on aligning the cost structure appropriately while continuing to invest in longer-term opportunities. I'd like to thank all of Pentair's employees for continuing to deliver for our customers despite these unprecedented times. Please turn to Slide #5 labeled Segment Focus. We wanted to remind everyone of our focus within our 2 segments, which remain relatively unchanged. Within Consumer Solutions, our largest segment, our primary focus is advancing our growth in pool both in gaining content as well as extending our aftermarket reach. As a reminder, there are approximately 80,000 new pools built each year and there are roughly 5.5 million pools installed in the ground. We believe that automation represents a longer term opportunity, and we continue to evolve our product offering. We have launched the Pentair Home app and are rolling out a number of new products that can and will be interconnected. We also wanted to comment on an upcoming Department of Energy regulation that goes into effect in July of 2021, which we expect will result in further adoption of variable speed pumps. As a reminder, this is a category that we helped invent over a decade ago. We estimate that roughly 30% to 40% of in-ground pools have a variable speed pump today, and we expect this number to only increase after the new DOE regulation takes effect. While we believe we are well positioned from a product standpoint, we are working closely with our dealers and distributors to better educate them about what the new regulation means as well as help them manage the transition away from single-speed pumps. Within our Water Solutions business, we continue to invest in innovative components such as our flat connected valve for water softeners, while also expanding our residential systems business. Within our commercial systems business, we continue to invest in new areas around commercial office water and total water management. We see this as a long-term opportunity where we believe we are well positioned, and we look forward to updating you in the future. Finally, we continue to focus on our M&A funnel, primarily around tuck-in and bolt-ons. During the quarter, we made a small acquisition of an in-floor pool cleaner company that expands our product offerings. We see opportunities for other product line extensions in pool and much broader opportunities within Water Solutions. While our focus within Consumer Solutions is principally around growth, Industrial & Flow Technologies, or IFT, has more of a focus on productivity. We have reinforced our PIMS processes as we believe that there are a number of opportunities across the segment to improve the cost structure and also improve quality and delivery within a few select businesses. We continue to invest in productivity-enhancing technology in our manufacturing plants. While the focus in IFT is more on margin improvement, we believe that there are some potential niche-growth opportunities, particularly in our food and beverage business focused on CO2 recovery as well as our beer membrane business. We continue to prioritize our opportunities for both segments to ensure we are allocating our resources most effectively to optimize our shareholder value creation opportunities. We have a balanced focus between growth and productivity and believe that both segments are well positioned to make contributions to Pentair and all of our stakeholders. Please turn to Slide #6 labeled What We Do Really Matters! Doing well by doing good has been a long-standing tradition at Pentair. Our purpose and our mission helped to energize our employees to make a difference within and beyond the workplace. Sustainability is not an initiative at Pentair, but instead is core to the products we create and the customers we serve. This slide is a brief snapshot of how some of our products are helping to make the world a safer, more sustainable place. Pentair is a water-focused company, and many of our products are energy-efficient solutions. Our variable speed pool pump has helped us to be named ENERGY STAR's Partner of the Year for 6 consecutive years, while helping consumers save nearly $2 billion in energy costs. Our Residential Water Solutions business has helped reduce the need for almost 10 billion of water bottles annually. We also have a leading CO2-recovery business within industrial filtration that has helped customers capture and reuse over 11 million metric tons of CO2 every year. We remain focused on leveraging our strong product and technology offerings to help our customers deliver smart, sustainable solutions. This is core to Pentair and essential to our purpose and mission in building a leading water treatment company. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our financial position and our results in more detail. Bob?
Robert Fishman:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Q2 2020 Pentair Performance. For the second quarter, our sales declined 11% and decreased 10% on a core sales basis. Consumer Solutions was down 8% on a core basis, while Industrial & Flow Technologies core sales declined 13%. I will discuss each segment's performance in more detail shortly. Segment income declined 19% and return on sales contracted 180 basis points to 17.5%. We made progress on our cost-reduction efforts, but the timing of these actions reading out did not fully offset our decremental margins in the quarter. Below the operating line, our net interest and other expense ended the quarter at $8.1 million. Our adjusted tax rate was 16%, and our average shares outstanding in the quarter was $166.4 million. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.59, which represented a 14% decline year-over-year. Overall, we were very pleased with the progression of the quarter following a difficult April. While there's still much work to do, we feel positive about our ability to align our cost structure with the weakened top line. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. While the P&L faced its fair share of challenges during the quarter, we were extremely pleased with our cash flow performance and the further strengthening of our balance sheet. For the quarter, we generated free cash flow of $417 million, over a 20% increase for the comparable period 1 year ago. We used our strong cash flow performance primarily to pay down our revolver balance. We ended the second quarter with $764 million available under our $900 million revolver. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio ended the quarter at a very manageable 1.6x. While we have one small maturity upcoming in September, we have no other pressing capital needs outside of dividends in the second half. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital, and we feel good about the strength of our balance sheet and expect to deliver free cash flow for the year equal to or greater than our net income. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Q2 2020 Consumer Solutions Performance. Consumer Solutions sales declined 8%, segment income decreased 11% and return on sales declined 80 basis points to 24.1%. Before discussing the full results of the 2 businesses within the segment, we wanted to remind you that Consumer Solutions is 75% residential and 25% commercial. Our pool business delivered flat sales for the quarter. This included a mid-teens decline in April, followed by continued improvements in May and June. As consumers were sheltered in place, it appears that more and more people were opening their pools earlier than usual. Further, demand inquiries for new pools were up substantially throughout the quarter as confirmed in various publications about dealers having limited ability to keep up with the increased demand. This resulted in strong demand across all of our product categories. While we were focused on meeting this demand, we were impacted in the quarter by COVID-related manufacturing delays and supplier disruptions, notably during the early part of the quarter when we would historically be ramping up productions. We have seen less downtime in our own manufacturing facilities and have been able to ramp up production in several key product lines. The supplier disruptions occurred principally outside the U.S., and we have worked to add suppliers in addition to our current suppliers being able to produce once again. Within Water Solutions, the mid-teen sales decline does not tell the bifurcated story of the business. The smaller commercial business, which is exposed to restaurants and other hospitality industries, experienced a double-digit sales decline. It was encouraging to see the rate of decline moderate throughout the quarter, but we are not expecting any meaningful recovery for this business for the remainder of the year. Our residential business was a different story as we did see signs of improvement throughout the quarter in what can best be described as stabilization exiting the quarter. Early in the quarter, many of our dealers and customers were unable to get into consumers' homes to test their water and install systems. As the quarter progressed, we saw dealer activity increased and we also saw some pockets of stabilization in our components business. We believe Consumer Solutions is well positioned as we enter the third quarter based on the strong demand in pool and the continued improvement in orders. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled Q2 2020 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies, or IFT, saw sales decline 14%, with all 3 businesses down in the quarter. Segment income decreased 26%, and return on sales declined 240 basis points to 14.1%. The rate of decline in IFT was steep, limiting our ability to quickly take out cost, but there was a sequential improvement in sales as we exited the quarter. We are working on rightsizing the cost structure in IFT according to the demand run rate as we believe the top line will likely stay pressured in commercial and industrial as customers continue to pause their capital spending and reduce their aftermarket orders to lower asset utilization. Our Residential & Irrigation Flow business experienced a low double-digit sales decline as customers were actively managing their own balance sheets and their demand was severely impacted earlier in the quarter due to many states residents being sheltered in place. We experienced an improvement in activity as the quarter progressed, with orders in June up significantly versus April. Commercial and infrastructure flow posted a high single-digit decline in sales, with commercial demand down low double digits as the smaller infrastructure business continued to ship its backlog. We are monitoring orders closely in this business, but it appears to be too early to determine at what rate the backlog will be replenished. Industrial Filtration was hardest hit during the quarter, with sales declining just over 20%. This was broad-based as virtually all industries served saw a severe freeze in capital spending as well as lower asset utilization that had a negative impact on our aftermarket sales. It remains to be seen when these trends will reverse, and we are preparing for this part of IFT to remain under pressure for the remainder of the year. We expect the top line to remain pressured in IFT, and we are taking appropriate actions to rightsize the cost structure. We expect decrementals to improve throughout the second half of the year. Please turn to Slide 11 labeled Full Year 2020 Planning Assumptions. Despite a brief period when COVID first appeared in the U.S. in a meaningful way, our pool business has enjoyed an otherwise stronger first half of 2020. We expect this trend to continue in the third quarter as demand remains strong across the channel and we make progress in satisfying the strong demand the industry is experiencing. Our Water Solutions business, on the other hand, is not expected to have a second half recovery as hospitality and commercial offices are likely to remain impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We are also watching closely as COVID infection rates increased in key water quality states such as Florida, Texas and California. If tighter shelter-in-place restrictions are instituted, this could have an impact on our Residential Water Solutions business. As we stated earlier, IFT is expected to not see much in the way of recovery as we anticipate customers continue to pause their capital spending for the remainder of the year. Finally, the pandemic environment continues to create challenges for us as we make base economic assumptions. We expect continued uncertainty, but with the expected performance of our pool business, we are reinstating guidance as we expect the rest of our portfolio to face continued challenges. Please turn to Slide 12 labeled Full Year 2020 Pentair Outlook. While full visibility remains limited, with half of the year behind us, we are reinstating the full year guidance. For the full year, we expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2 to $2.20 on total sales of roughly $2.8 billion. Below the line, we are expecting an adjusted tax rate of 16% and average shares outstanding of approximately 167 million. We continue to target free cash flow greater than 100% of net income. Capital expenditures are expected to be $60 million to $70 million while D&A should approximate $75 million, and noncash stock compensation should be around $20 million. I would now like to turn the call over to Mariama for Q&A. After which, John will have a few closing remarks. Mariama, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
So no surprise, first question on pool. John, can you just talk a little bit about point of sale in the marketplace versus your business? Anything on backlog channel inventory that we should be thinking about as we head into the second half, and how maybe those two come into lockstep?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think -- first of all, I think we're pleased with the order trend and the sell-through rates in pool and very excited about the business' resiliency. And as we think through what's happened in the channel, I think most of that -- those orders in Q2 were served through inventory, so there's an opportunity, and certainly, the demand is to refill that inventory in the channel and continue to meet the external demand. So that's why Bob's comments we're very optimistic about what the back half looks like, and we're very hopeful that we continue to see that strong demand.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And then I'm assuming I win some sort of price or a T-shirt for a nonpool question. Just on commercial filtration. I would imagine that shelter-in-place was pretty punitive to things like restaurants and institutions. Any kind of swing factor that we should be aware of where 2Q maybe doesn't tell the story, but June exit rates or July, some of these organizations went from 0 to something better than 0. Any shift in demand there that you can speak to?
John Stauch:
No. I think because even in June, you'd have to look as two halves. I think as the country started opening up, certainly in June, very strong demand recovered. And as we started to see a pullback across the main states, and certainly across the United States, we started to see the trends start to slow again. I think our forecast assumes we just don't see recovery. And in fact, we continue to see continued pullbacks to deal with the pandemic. And so I think it's a balanced place to be right now. As Bob's notes determined, we saw a big -- we did see a big pickup in residential. And residential water quality, especially in people's homes, is a high-demand area. That accelerated throughout the quarter. And we've muted that expectation in the back half of the year as well as we're concerned if states start to reverse their views on the openings. I think the highlight would be we did see China recover in the quarter, and we're very optimistic certainly of its year-over-year June rates and what we see as the trends heading into Q3. So that does give us the indications that when things start to stabilize around the pandemic, that we really feel the strength of our portfolio will start to unfold.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeffrey Hammond:
So just on the pool kind of supply chain issues, can you just talk about what you think defers into 3Q as a result of that? And just what's your assessment of kind of those supply chain issues? Have they fully abated? Or are they still lingering?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Jeff, we're carrying a fairly substantial backlog into Q3. The order trend was very positive throughout Q2. And yes, we did have some supply disruptions primarily related to COVID and our supply base. And so we are consistently trying to meet that demand, and we expect a very strong July, and we're doing everything we can to meet the existing demand and also the demand that was created in Q2.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay. And then IFT kind of surprised me in the model and the upside, like where did you see maybe better trends versus what you were expecting? And then I think Bob made a comment on decrementals getting better, how should we look at decrementals for the back half for IFT?
John Stauch:
Yes. We'll split this answer, Jeff. I think on IFT, first of all, I think on long-cycle businesses, you carry a little bit backlog into the quarter. So we did have a backlog from some orders that we had booked in previous quarters that we continue to ship throughout Q2. But also I am as pleased that we become less dependent on large projects and we've got more of a recurring revenue stream across the IFT portfolio than we had maybe 3 to 5 years ago. So I think the efforts around the team to position ourselves in more predictable revenue stream started to show through, especially in -- as orders started to pull back. And I think we're positioned not to return to growth anytime soon, but at least to mitigate the downside growth potentials that we had in the last cycle. So I feel good about where we are in the portfolio. As Bob mentioned, we still have cost actions here to rightsize the business to where the trends are going to take it. We've been encouraged with a little bit of the order pattern as we started Q3, but we got to get this business in line with what the longer-term revenue stream looks like. And those are actions that we'll be discussing here throughout Q3. I'll have Bob talk about decrementals.
Robert Fishman:
Thanks, John. There is a tremendous amount of work going on around the cost structure, understanding fixed variable, discretionary, nondiscretionary, especially within the IFT business. I would say the best way to model the back half is to continue to use low to mid-30s as decrementals for that business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just a follow-up question on pool. As we look at sales reported by public distributors, how long do you think it will take for your sales sort of to match what the industry is doing? And as I said, I'm using public guides as an example, but there's just the disconnect. You guys were flat, the industry pool I think reported up 14%. Should we expect the gap to close in third quarter? Or how long does it take?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean we're going to do everything we can to close that gap in Q3. And as I said, I think the orders continue to remain strong. So I think, through the back half of the year, we expected to see our revenue increase significantly, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Fantastic. And just on the supply chain, you did talk about adding suppliers. Are you at -- in the same geography? Or are you guys considering maybe derisking supply chain and moving some of the suppliers to the U.S.? Can you just talk about how you're thinking about your supply chain post-COVID?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think -- like most companies, I think we have to first do what we need to do to get our demand out. And what we have is, in a couple of cases, we have suppliers that use Mexico as the source of that production. And as you know, Mexico was hit hard in COVID here throughout Q2, and that disrupted the supply chain a little bit. As we move forward, I think we're very aware that supply chains are going to need to be much more localized, not just the U.S. but also in Europe and also in China. I think the disruptions that were caused as the pandemic worked its way through, highlighted a couple issues. But as a reminder, I mean, tariffs were another indication of where supply chains needed to move as well. And there hasn't really been any movement, and feeling better about where tariffs are going to be longer term, which really, I think, drives all of us in the manufacturing space to think about more localized production to serve the demand and the needs, but also to balance and derisk the aspects associated with disruption to global supply chains, Andrew. So I think that's a trend not just for us but for everybody.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Charles Tusa:
What was the impact of the supply chain issues, dollar volume-wise?
John Stauch:
Well, it was a big piece of what would have helped close the gap between the industry trends and where we shift our products, Steve. Let's just put it there. Part of that being that, as Bob mentioned, we got off to a slow start in the quarter as the orders started coming in just from our manufacturing operations and ramping ours up to the demand. But then when the supply disruptions happened, as I mentioned earlier, that put us further behind and now we're digging out of that aspect. We've seen a strong demand across the entire equipment portfolio, so it's not just a product line. And as we head into Q3, we're confident we have a path to get the customers their orders within Q3, but we also see the demand working its way into Q4 as well, Steve.
Charles Tusa:
How strong were our orders kind of in June and July? You said you can grow significantly? I mean are they up more than double digit?
John Stauch:
Yes. No, not more than double, that'd be triple, right?
Charles Tusa:
Sorry.
John Stauch:
They're up double digits. They're definitely up double digits.
Charles Tusa:
They're not 100% right. So are they up more than 20?
John Stauch:
Yes.
Charles Tusa:
Okay. So can you, in consumer, actually hold the flat line this year, do you think, for this segment?
John Stauch:
I think that would be aggressive. I think like we said on -- I think it's Slide 11, Steve, we expect and -- listen, we acknowledge the pool, we think we're just going to have a good year this year anyway. As you know, we had easier comparisons year-over-year. And we didn't have great weather last year, and we've had tremendous weather for the pool season this year. In addition to that, we think that the shelter-in-place has changed the consumers' behaviors, primarily around seasonal products that aren't always purchased, "Okay, we're going to use our pool earlier, so let's talk about our heaters. We're home, and we're maintaining our pool, should we consider chlorinators? Should we consider automating our pool?" Those are all the things that we are hopeful for long periods of time, that our consumers would begin to understand and start to invest in it. And we're really encouraged about those order trends related to that. So we're acknowledging pool is going to have a really good year, and our only limit there is our supply chain and making sure we're managing through it. We're acknowledging the fact that we probably had a much more optimistic forecast in Water Solutions. And the commercial impact in the likelihood that people are going to open up their offices for people to come back to work or that hotels and hospitality sections are going to see travel to the level that we used to, that's what we're taking out of this look as we build this guide, Steve. And so I would think it would be very hard for Consumer Solutions to get all the way back, but I do think we're encouraged by the trends. And as we started to see things open in June, we really liked our positioning in the Water Solutions business, and we started to see that recovery. But then towards the end of June, we saw it pull back a little bit as a lot of closures started to happen. So I know it's a long-winded answer, but I just wanted to give you the color. And I felt that slide was important because while there's a lot of optimism in our businesses, the final bullet point is the sobering reality that none of us know what's going to happen with this pandemic, both in the impact that it has on the economic outlook to our businesses, but also on what it's going to do to our global supply chains and our own manufacturing factories.
Charles Tusa:
Right. Sorry, one last quick one. On productivity, you did $9 million this quarter. Is that kind of a good consistent run rate for the back half? Or do you have some more kind of costs coming through timing-wise that can improve that in the last couple of quarters?
Robert Fishman:
We're focused on improving that number. Again, looking at the portfolio of businesses, we think there's opportunity to do better than that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey with Vertical Research Partners.
Brett Linzey:
Just wanted to circle back on the DOE efficiency changeover. How do you see that playing out as we roll into next year? Do you expect some prebuy of the single-speed ahead of the deadline and then you get the mix up kind of beyond '22? Or what's your thought process there?
John Stauch:
Yes. We've always felt that there would be some prebuy just because of the way the other industries have handled transitions of this like. I think we obviously are working with our distribution and dealer channels to help understand that the value of the variable speed is significant, both in the form of how quiet it is, its efficiency and just the fact that it plainly is a better pump. So while we do expect some of that prebuy to mitigate the impacts of not having it available next year, we really are hopeful that more of the mix switches to the variable speed pump in a very short order here.
Brett Linzey:
Yes. Got it. And then just on price, encouraging, you're able to hold the line there in both the businesses in the quarter. Just given the strength in pool, you've got some commodities moving against you, do you think you have a price lever to kind of move price back up through the second half of the year, specifically in pool?
John Stauch:
I think it's going to be a more normalized pricing environment, similar to the way we approach this year. While there are some challenges across certain product lines, I mean, overall, commodities have generally held in there, and we haven't seen significant inflation. So I think it's going to be a more normalized year as we head into the season.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joseph Giordano:
Can you hear me?
John Stauch:
Yes. We can, Joe.
Joseph Giordano:
All right. Good. So just following up on that question on the regulatory change. Just can you kind of frame out what that means for you guys on like a margin profile basis or -- and what it means to the competitive landscape and who's producing efficient single-speed versus variable speed, and how that kind of works for you guys, the give and take in the industry?
John Stauch:
Yes. So this has been a product that's been out there for 10-plus years. And as I said in my comments, we helped with the channel and the needs, primarily on the high-cost energy states, introduced this product. So we've been the leader in it for a period of time, but candidly, everybody has got a variable speed pump. And I think our biggest challenge across the industry I think is getting people to understand that even though the cost of that product is almost double, the value in the pump both in how long it lasts and the value it creates is significant. So there's not really a change in margin profile. It goes out at more revenue and it throws out more margin dollars, but not higher margin.
Joseph Giordano:
Got it. That makes sense. And I was just curious about kind of like the channel evolution. Have you seen more of your business going through like an Amazon-type sale more recently? How has that kind of shifted over time?
John Stauch:
Online has definitely picked up on do-it-yourself products like filtration or replacement filtration cartridges. There's definitely interest in water filtration that's going through those online channels. And then just as a reminder, we have our own online capability that we've got through the Pelican acquisition that we utilized to take some of that demand and shift it over into more of a water expertise because what we want to do is give people the right solution, not just sell them a product that they think they need.
Joseph Giordano:
And what was that -- I mean, as it shifts towards that channel, what does that mean for you guys from a margin standpoint?
John Stauch:
Well, I mean, we think -- I mean, there's always going to be a curated set of products in any industry in which people are going to be able to do and replace themselves. We don't necessarily feel in pool or in our Water Solutions businesses that, that solves the real consumer concern around taste and quality of their water. And so we believe, long term, that creates leads that really drive the nice services revenue for us over the longer term.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Just maybe firstly on the decrementals on Consumer Solutions, specifically. They seem to come in pretty strong, a bit better than we would have expected given the 8% decline in sales. Anything in the quarter that might have helped the margin profile? Was it all a function of mix? Or was there something else? And then how should we think about whether this level of decrementals in the segment sustains in the next few quarters?
Robert Fishman:
For Consumer Solutions, again, mix was helpful in the quarter. And we expect that trend to continue in the back half of the year. There's also, within Consumer Solutions, a number of productivity plays that are underway. So I expect decrementals to continue to do well within the Consumer Solutions segment.
Brian Lee:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just secondarily, with respect to mix in the pool business specifically, do you see different margin profiles when it comes to business coming from renovation projects as opposed to new construction? And are you seeing -- I think you mentioned both, but are you seeing trends in those 2 segments being similarly strong? Or is one outperforming the other? It sounds like backlogs on the new construction side are actually above average according to some of the supply chain players, but just be curious to hear your read and also what the relative impacts are from one type of business versus the other?
Robert Fishman:
Right. When we've been looking at it, both new construction and remodel are both strong in this environment. And the margin profile is very similar between those 2 pieces. So again, good news from our perspective in terms of consistent demand in both of those areas.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Rosenblatt Securities.
Scott Graham:
I have three for you. If you could just give us a quick comment on IFT mix. Can you maybe tell us also when the new pool inquiries, when your dealers and when trade is expecting that to manifest into actual breaking of grounds? And if you could also tell us what your thoughts are on reinstating share repurchases.
John Stauch:
Sure. So I'll take this with Bob. I mean it's interesting, and I want to frame that, I think when we heard the pandemic hit where we saw it start to hit late March and April, when we checked with the channel in pool, I mean, it was -- the phones weren't ringing and people were nervous. And what happened throughout Q2 is people started to focus again on how do I get a quality of life with what I have versus maybe vacationing and going elsewhere. So we saw that demand come in very, very strong and continues be strong through this call today. So I think that is a signal, and usually people know that they're not going to get a pool built in weeks. It's usually a couple of quarters. And so I think we feel good about that trend and what could happen in the new and remodeled pools as it goes forward. As a reminder, Scott, we look at every one of those opportunities as a way to convince that particular homeowner that there is a best solution for that pool. That includes automation, it includes their ability to dose the chemicals in themselves and maintain that pool themselves and get the best overall experience. So we love the new pool trend and the remodeled pool trend because it's our best opportunity to increase the content. We obviously continue to serve the installed pools, which is, again, you're using your pool and you're going to run through your equipment, but that tends to be more of a like-for-like replacement. So we like the trends right now. We think it's continuing in the right direction, and we're hopeful it continues into 2021. Bob, do you want to talk about the capital allocation question?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. On share repurchases, to me, it fits within the whole approach around capital structure. We continue to have a very balanced, disciplined approach. First and foremost, to me, it begins with driving free cash flow greater than or equal to net income. And we're on our way to do that here in 2020 and very pleased with the second quarter from a free cash flow perspective. The debt position at the company at 1.6x, very manageable, especially with covenants of 3.75. And then our liquidity position, if you were to take what's available in the revolver and add it to the cash, is over $850 million. And to me, what a difference 90 days makes, we were coming out of Q1 with that same liquidity position closer to $500 million. So $350 million higher going into the back half of the year. All those things then give us the optionality around return of cash to shareholders and investing in the business. We targeted $150 million of buybacks this year. We completed $150 million. We may resume the share repurchase in the future, but depending on market conditions and our capital needs, we still need to make that decision. We'll continue, obviously, to pay the dividend and invest in our highest margin growth opportunities both organically and inorganically. So I would best describe it as a balanced capital structure with really a lot of optionality but based on our liquidity position.
John Stauch:
And then, Scott, your final question was really about mix in IFT. And I would say they're all relatively the same across the businesses, except we do better when agriculture does better. So we haven't seen that uptick in demand on ag this year as it pertains to OEM ag or spray irrigation ag, but that's the one piece of the portfolio we love when the market is strong.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair:
I wanted to circle back on the runway for new pool demand for a minute. Is it reasonable, given construction backlogs, labor constraints, the limited length of the construction season, to assume that the spike in new pool demand is going to remain significantly supportive through 2021? Or am I oversimplifying that?
John Stauch:
That's a reasonable expectation. Obviously, there's all kinds of things that you need to consider like economic impacts, how people are feeling about their 401(k)s, those type of things. But based upon the trends we've seen right now, it's very realistic to assume the scenario that you shared.
Bryan Blair:
Okay. And you touched on M&A -- the M&A funnel in your prepared remarks. Has the pandemic in any way shifted, meaningfully impacted, the specific technologies or capabilities that are of interest to you as you scale Water Solutions or tuck-in to the pool platform?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean it's reinforced several. I think we just did a small one in pool that we think really fits nicely in the portfolio. It's in-floor cleaning, so as you build and create a remodeled pool, it's the ability to put the jets at the bottom of the pool to create more of a mixture of filtration capability. So that's an example of a technology that you wouldn't go retrofit, but you'd certainly put in a new and remodeled pool. And adding that as a portfolio is really nice to have. As we think about where we want to take Water Solutions, we really believe more than ever now that the trends are going to shift faster, meaning people want touchless solutions when it comes to dispensing water. They're going to come back into office buildings and have a different feeling about the water they drink. And so people are going to maybe tend to think of branded water or certain forms of water being dispensed to a taste profile or a health profile that they seek. So all of those things were in our portfolio, and I feel we either want to accelerate the innovation internally or augment them with channel accelerators and/or service offerings into the markets that we'll go to. So I expect that we'll have some looks at some deals over the next 6 to 9 months. We're going to continue to be disciplined, as Bob said, because most of this capability we can do organically. But if there's an accelerator out there that we can put in as a bolt-on or tuck-in, we're going to consider it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
You obviously had a big cash flow quarter in Q2, and we understand the cash flow strength and seasonality coming out of pool, but could you continue to see working capital tailwind in the second half, given the strength in pool? And obviously, your guidance have greater than or equal to 100% conversion. I mean it's a little vague. So given what we've seen already, it would suggest that you could see conversion well above 100%. So I don't know if you could just comment on that.
Robert Fishman:
Yes. So I would describe this year as a typical year from a free cash flow perspective. I would not describe '18 and '19 as such because of movements in working capital. But to us, it's playing out like we thought it would. In Q2, we saw strong cash collections and we did not have the headwind of payables in the first half that we had in '19. So that's 2 reasons why we're up so significantly at the turn. We'll continue to drive positive free cash flow in the back half of the year. What I really like about the profile right now is that the linearity, both in Q3 and Q4, is going to be much better than what it's been in the past. So I start each quarter off level-loading the plans and then having the opportunity to collect that cash. So I like the linearity. We do have potential to be better than 100% of net income. That's what we're calling right now. But overall, I think we've got exactly the right focus on free cash flow. One of the things we've changed in the last 90 days is building out a free cash flow forecast down to the business level. And so we have accountability around everything from CapEx to inventory to cash taxes throughout the company. So it always helps me when the company as a whole are focused on this metric. So I expect we'll continue to have strong cash flow performance in the back half of the year.
Andrew Kaplowitz:
And then, John, can you give us a little more color into your comments regarding frozen CapEx in industrial filtration? If I'm not mistaken, it's a backlog business, so could you comment on the backlog trends you're seeing? And then as your customers have slowly come off of shelter-in-place, have they started to spend at all? Or is it that they're just waiting for more economic certainty? I think you mentioned in the past that you had a number of self-help opportunities in this particular business, so what are they? And are they helping you at all?
John Stauch:
Yes. It's a great question. I think when you think about our industrial filtration offerings and you think of food and beverage and then you think of our membrane applications into broad industrial, many of our customers just don't yet have any economic outlook for the business that they can feel comfortable at. And even within F&B, even though that the stay-at-home liquor and beer sales have been pretty tremendous, we have to offset that with the hospitality demand that has dropped off considerably. So a lot of our food and beverage and beer customers that we're very intimate with are considering beer manufacturing in remote locations around the world that they're uncomfortable making that strategic investment right now given where the pandemic is. So we -- I don't want to say it's a freeze, and I've been very careful with that because our dialogue has really been about more where they're going to put it and when they're going to do it versus if they are. And then on the industrial side, our customers, again, are in need of capital investment to accelerate productivity, and most of our membrane offerings create that, but they're in the evaluation stage of where those will be. So we've chosen that word carefully, pause, because we think it is really paused right now pending either more of a freeze or a reboot to that capital spend to drive the productivity they need.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
I want to circle back on the new pool construction industry, and we've been stuck at this 80,000 capacity for a while. Do you think the industry is going to put new capacity in place and you're seeing any signs of that? And how would that change your mix? I mean you're typically 85% more about aftermarket, but would that increase the new pool sales?
John Stauch:
Yes. Deane, I don't know if I can get there yet. I mean last year, we did have a pullback, as we talked about, due to weather. And this year, there's a little catch-up. And we'll be looking at those pool permits and the pool permit trends by these states as we go forward. I'm encouraged because I do think most people in these warm-weather states when they retire and/or they choose to be there, they look at the pool as a necessity for their lifestyle. So I think we believe that the trends are still in our favor. Where it goes and how fast it goes, I'm not ready to make that choice yet, Deane. I do think what we can do is continue to make you aware of if you have a pool, how we can help you maintain it better and how we connect you with our professional channel that can give you the solution that we feel is best for you.
Deane Dray:
Got it. just an observation. I'm surprised that there's not more penetration of the variable speed pump because it is such a compelling economic decision. So anyway, that looks like the natural lift there is for more sales. And the second question on the Home app for automation. Where does that stand today? How many installations or users do you have? What's the expected pull-through in terms of products? And then more of a qualitative question is, does that in any way put you in competition with the pool service folks? I mean these are your channel partners typically. Or does that enhance the relationship?
John Stauch:
Yes. Deane, thank you for asking. I mean we soft-launched it, so we've got it in the test phase right now, around a couple products that we've introduced. And so I believe we'll start to see that acceleration into 2021. We want to make sure that we work the bugs out and we're giving you a better end-user experience. It brings all of our in-home products into one Pentair app and makes it more consumer-friendly. So we have a dealer-specific app that we'll have so that more technical needs and understanding will be supported through the dealer network. And then the consumer app will give you things more like things are good or I need more salt or I need to adjust appropriately. We think it's actually going to augment and accelerate our dealer relationships, Deane, because the main point of the app, and I call it the -- quite a bad analogy now -- but I call it the Uber app, is how do we connect you with the best dealer for your particular solution or need? We still believe, and I strongly believe, that we're going to be best served if we're giving you the right expert decision for your water quality needs, and then we're connecting that with our best dealers to give you the best experience. So we're trying to create the awareness through the app and give you a better experience. But when you need something, we're not going to be at odds with them, we're going to connect the consumers through our best dealers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Damian Karas with UBS.
Damian Karas:
Just a few minor model questions on my end. First, I want to ask you about the investment. It just -- it looks like you've been cutting back on R&D a little bit in the first half and in particular in the second quarter. I know you've talked about, John, continuing your long-term strategic investments. Just wondering if that's perhaps the result of maybe some of the facility shutdowns that you had in the second quarter? Or just any thoughts on what's going on there?
John Stauch:
You nailed it. It wasn't by choice. It was because R&D was one of those functions that was hard to maintain at the consistent levels that we had prior year. It was the one function certainly in Pentair, but probably in the industry, that was hard to do remotely in work-from-home. And we are, candidly, on some of the key NPI programs, probably lost 90 days, and I would expect that R&D spend to pick up here in the back half of the year as we try to catch up on some of those interruptions in those projects. We are back now. Obviously, social distancing and working through all of the different requirements, but yes, that was a result of COVID, not from a strategic choice.
Robert Fishman:
And I would just add to that. We do spend $60 million and $70 million of capital which is, to be honest, probably a little bit higher than what we talked about on our last call. And we look at that capital spend in 3 buckets
Damian Karas:
Okay. Great. That makes sense. I'll leave it at that. I appreciate the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
I guess I'll start just a question on the overall guide. I mean it looks like you've got pretty good visibility into a strong second half for pool, and it looks like you've taken a pretty conservative approach to the IFT business in the guidance. Can you just talk about how you approached giving guidance for the full year, particularly the second half? Have you taken a pretty conservative outlook to IFT where you're really confident that you can deliver that second-half guidance? And if things get a little bit better than you've built into the guide, then maybe there's some upside? Or do you think it's more of a realistic kind of look at the second half?
John Stauch:
Yes. Nathan, I mean first of all, I'm pleased that we could introduce guidance again. I think it's important externally to frame the goalpost of what you're trying to accomplish, but also it's very important internally that people are working towards expectations and actions and targets that they're held accountable for. And I feel really good that we worked as hard as we could in Q2 to deliver the best result. And that's always been our goal here, how do we keep our people safe? And how do we continue to lean in and produce the best financial results possible? That being said, the fourth bullet that I put on that one slide is that uncertainty around how the pandemic plays out is still a question mark for us. It's easier to think about it now with only 6 months in front of us and really more like 5 as we work through July. So I think we've got a better reasonable estimate of where we're going to land. And so I think we think it's an appropriate expectation. And there are scenarios that get to the high end and there are scenarios that are on the low end, Nathan. But one of the things we don't want to do is have to pull back guidance because there may or may not be some issue that we have to deem to be material. So a big thought process was, what do we feel comfortable with? And how can we give The Street what they need and give ourselves what we need to continue to operationalize the business and then deliver the best financial results possible, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe a question around the cost reduction. I think you alluded earlier in this call to some stepped up cost-cutting perhaps at the IFT segment. But if I look at the guidance provided in the release, it looks like you're only assuming about $4 million of restructuring for the year and maybe $1.5 million, $1 million or so in the second half. So just trying to understand, am I misreading that? Or is there a lot of pending restructuring to be announced? Or is the cost-cutting more of a variable-type approach and that sort of flows back once the top line recovers?
Robert Fishman:
Yes. I would not associate any of the cost-reduction efforts relating to restructuring. We're primarily focused on our variable labor and our discretionary spend. So those typically do not bring significant restructuring costs with them. We'll continue to evaluate the top line and take actions as we need to, but the focus is primarily on those variable components.
Julian Mitchell:
And then my second one, sticking with IFT. That relative resilience you saw in the commercial and infrastructure business, with the organic sales only down high single-digit in the quarter, is that a trend you think stays fairly similar through the second half? Or is there something where as the backlog softens, it gets worse? Just trying to understand what's moving that business specifically more, is it the backlog or is it the flow-driven part, and how you see them in the second half?
John Stauch:
Was that specific to a business, in IFT? Or is that a broad item?
Julian Mitchell:
Yes. Yes. No. So specifically around the commercial and infrastructure piece.
John Stauch:
Yes. So we had a fairly decent backlog, and we saw orders remain strong through Q1. I think what you're feeling from us is the anticipation that I mean it's municipalities and some of the commercial building needs might be lower in the future. And so it's not necessarily indicative of a trend we know. It's more indicative sequentially of a trend we're anticipating.
Julian Mitchell:
I see. So the down high single digits is a reasonable sort of run rate in that sense?
John Stauch:
Yes. Yes.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to John Stauch for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Well, thank you for joining us today. We are all navigating these uncertain times together, and I would like to offer my best wishes to all of our employees, customers and shareholders and urge you to all stay safe as we grind through this pandemic. While no one is expecting the type of year we have all experienced, we continue to believe that Pentair has a strong foundation to build upon. We have a strong purpose, strong mission and strong vision focused on delivering smart, sustainable solutions that empower our customers to make the most of life's most essential resources. We believe that we are in attractive spaces that are expanding. We are a leader in helping people move, improve and enjoy their water, and we are making the world more sustainable through our smarter systems and applications. We have the right enterprise strategy, businesses, talent and culture. Our win right values, our leadership competencies and our Pentair integrated management system enable all of our employees to continuously improve customer experiences and deliver more predictable and consistent results. Thank you for your continued interest. Mariama, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thanking for standing by, and welcome to Pentair's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jim Lucas. Please go ahead, sir.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Shelby, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us today. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2020 performance outlined in this morning’s press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K, and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the Appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions-and-answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. This is certainly a historic time that we're experiencing and the last few months have tried the patience of the entire world and Pentair. I would like to extend my sincerest sympathies to all that have suffered loss during this horrific global pandemic. I want to also thank all of our employees, their continued efforts to stay safe and protect each other. We're taking care of our customers, and will continue to focus on delivering the best financial results possible. I also want to take a moment to thank our COVID-19 Crisis Response Team for all of their efforts to respond to this global challenge and a very special thank you to all of our manufacturing employees for their tremendous commitment to our customers and to Pentair. They truly represent the spirit of our culture. And I appreciate their dedication, their courage, and their contributions to the first quarter results. We were very pleased to deliver adjusted EPS for the quarter that was above the high-end of our prior guidance range, inclusive of the challenges from COVID-19 that initially impacted our business in China earlier in the quarter, and then globally toward the end of the quarter. We also recently announced key hires for CFO and for our previously announced segment structure. First, I would like to welcome Bob Fishman, who will become CFO tomorrow, May 1, as part of an orderly transition for Mark Borin who previously announced he would be leaving Pentair for another opportunity. Bob joins Pentair after a long successful career at MCR, where he was a central part of the company's transformation from a hardware and systems manufacturer into a software and services provider. We also announced the hiring of Mario D'Ovidio to lead our Consumer Solutions segment. Mario joins us most recently from Electrolux and brings a strong background from several consumer influenced businesses focused on multiple channels. Mario will bring a growth mindset and a sense of urgency to our Consumer Solutions businesses. Jerome Pedretti who has been with Pentair for nearly 15 years will lead our Industrial & Flow Technologies segment. Jerome has held experiences at Pentair and has proven himself as a developer of talent. He also embraces our PIMS processes and culture, and we utilize his experiences to improve the operating capabilities of the Industrial & Flow Technologies businesses. Finally, we announced the elimination of the COO role, and that Karl Frykman, will help oversee an orderly transition with Mario and will also work with me to the end of the year as a Special Advisor. I would like to personally thank Karl for his leadership and partnership over the years. Turning back to market demand, when we formally withdraw our quarter and annual guidance at the end of March, due to lack of visibility, we're planning for significantly reduced demand throughout the remainder of 2020. We do not have clarity at this time around the potential impacts to each of our lines of business or when the markets will recover. Because of lack of clarity, we're taking appropriate actions to adjust our cost structure, while still keeping a focus on the longer-term as we expect that demand will eventually return for most of our businesses. Finally, we're focused on maintaining a strong liquidity position. Pentair is a long track record of being a strong cash flow generator, and our balance sheet is in a solid position. We understand that the remainder of the year will be a challenge to bring uncertainty. However, we believe that our strong operating culture and well-positioned businesses will eventually prevail over this pandemic and its impacts on the economy. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled COVID-19 update and focus. Our focus has been and will continue to be on the safety and well-being of our employees, while also being mindful of serving customer demand to the best of our abilities. Our business in China and Southeast Asia saw considerable negative impact in the first quarter, but we did not see much impact in Europe or the U.S. until later in the quarter. While we have seen our operations in China return to more normalized levels, demand still has not returned to China and Southeast Asia to levels before the pandemic. Outside of China, we have seen softening demand to start April, and we took actions to reduce the bottom-line impact of expected revenue declines. In the short-term, we're focused on cost reductions in line with lower revenue levels. We feel good about our balance sheet, cash flow, and liquidity and believe that we are well prepared to survive the storm. We remain focused on our long-term goals and strategy, and we will continue to prepare to take advantage of opportunities when business recovers. Please turn to Slide 6, labeled Consumer Solutions. I want to spend a few moments on our portfolio exposure and what demand trends we are currently experiencing. Consumer Solutions is a $1.6 billion segment comprised of our pool and our water solutions businesses. As you can see on this slide, Consumer Solutions is approximately 75% residential and approximately 75% of the revenue serves installed/aftermarket base. Our pool business is a leader in the North American pool equipment business. There are approximately 5.5 million pools installed in the ground. Our dealers continue to operate in most geographies and we expect the aftermarket business which represents roughly 80% of our pool business to see some short-term softness, but not to the extent that we might expect will occur in the new pool construction and remodeling parts of the business. While we had a solid start to the season in March, we have seen some softness to start April. We believe that inventory levels in the channel are in line with historic levels. But we'll be monitoring demand throughout the season. Our Water Solutions business is made up of components, residential systems, and commercial systems. Within our components business, we have not yet seen many changes within the important wholesale channel. Residential systems, which includes the Aquion and Pelican businesses we acquired last year are somewhat dependent on in-home visits and retail traffic. While we have not yet seen a material drop-off in demand, there are concerns over consumer behavior in the short-term. Finally, our commercial systems business has large exposure to restaurants and hospitality. They've seen significant slowing of demand, as expected with the closures of businesses in these industries. While we expect some short-term disruptions for our Consumer Solutions segment, we continue to believe that water quality will remain a key focus for consumers and other commercial businesses and we anticipate this business will be well-positioned when markets eventually recover. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Industrial & Flow Technologies. Industrial & Flow Technologies or IFT is a $1.3 billion segment comprised of our Residential and Irrigation Flow, Commercial and Infrastructure flow, and Industrial Filtration businesses. As you can see, IFT is a more diverse segment than Consumer Solutions with approximately half of sales tied to various industrial markets. IFT does however generate approximately 65% of sales in the installed aftermarket base. Within Residential and Irrigation flow, we have seen some slowing among our distributors. So this is more in the retail and professional channel. This business is where we have some exposure to agriculture and while the OEM exposed business is down, our aftermarket business is performing better than it did a year-ago. It is important to note that the majority of the Residential and Irrigation flow portfolio consists of products that are breaking sticks in nature and tend to be less discretionary purchases. Our Commercial and Infrastructure Flow business manufacturers' larger engineered pumps, it tends to be a backlog-driven business. Our commercial businesses have seen some slowing of orders but backlog has not yet been impacted. Within infrastructure, which is the smaller piece of this business, we're seeing strong backlog but we'll be watching orders for any signs of slowing given this is a long cycle business. Our Industrial Filtration business is comprised of a number of product lines that serve a wide variety of applications. For instance, we have a strong niche in beer membrane filtration, and other components of the beer industry. We also have a sustainable gas business that recycles CO2. We continue to feel comfortable about our overall portfolio given our large installed base and limited industrial manufacturing exposure. Our products are solutions that help customers solve needs and will be prepared to serve demand when it returns. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mark Borin to discuss our financial position and our results in more detail.
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Before discussing the business, I want to first welcome Bob to the team and I feel proud to be leaving a strong finance and IT team as I move on to the next chapter of my career. It is hard to leave after 12 years with Pentair, but I believe the company is well-positioned and will emerge from this current situation stronger as a leading water treatment company. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled cost structure and actions. This chart is to help illustrate our cost structure and the levers available to us as the top-line visibility remains challenged. Materials is our biggest cost at approximately 40% of sales, and is the one piece of our structure that is truly variable. We're engaged in a number of supplier rapid renegotiations to continuously look for opportunities to further reduce input costs. The rest of the cost structure has variability but requires actions on our part and many of the actions come with causes and/or consequence. In the short-term, we will look to drive manufacturing labor reductions in line with volume declines with temporary measures such as furloughs to keep as much of the team intact for the eventual recovery. Although a significant portion of our overhead is fixed, we are focused on deferring and reducing non-labor outside spending. We're targeting overhead reduction at roughly half of the potential volume drop. On the operating expense side, we have implemented hiring freezes and we're driving significant savings from delaying, reducing, or eliminating purchase services and travel. There are other costs to go after depending on the extent and level of the volume decline. And we also recognize if the decline is expected globally in the second quarter carryover to the remainder of the year, then sales and management incentive plans may not pay out at planned levels. We're taking necessary actions in the short-term to mitigate the expected top-line decreases and we'll watch closely for signs of stabilization before looking to pull additional levers. Our goal is to manage through this environment to the best of our abilities, while doing what we can to prepare for an eventual recovery. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled balance sheet and access to liquidity. With liquidity and focus, we want to spend a few minutes highlighting why we feel comfortable with our financial position. As this slide illustrates, we do not have any meaningful debt maturities for the next few years. We ended the quarter with $169 million in cash and $326 million available under our revolver. Given the seasonality of our pool business, we tend to use cash in the first quarter, and our second quarter tends to be our strongest cash generating period, given the collection on the pool receivables. We do not expect that trend to change this year and therefore we anticipate our financial position strengthening even further as the second quarter progresses. We ended the first quarter with a leverage ratio of 2.1 times which is well below our 3.7 times covenants. Given the dramatically changing environment, we have lowered our capital expenditures forecast by over 10% for the year. During the first quarter, we repurchased $115 million of our shares. But we suspended the buyback during the quarter and are currently choosing to remain on the sidelines as we focus on our strong liquidity. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. This is our standard slide we present each quarter. On the left hand side of the page, our free cash flow improved rather dramatically from the comparable period last year. As we highlighted on our fourth quarter earnings call, we did see some timing issues around payables at the start of 2019. But we believe that this year's performance is more reflective of our normal seasonal pattern. The right hand side of the page highlights our debt position at the end of the quarter. While we covered our liquidity position on the previous slide, we would point out that we have a healthy mix between fixed and variable debt, our average borrowing rate for the quarter was a very respectable 2.6% and we ended the quarter with 14.4% ROIC. Overall, we feel our balance sheet is strong and while the outlook for the P&L in the near term is a bit challenging given the lack of visibility, we believe that our balance sheet is well-positioned to help us navigate through these uncertain times. Please turn to Slide 11 labeled Q1 20 Pentair performance. For the first quarter overall sales grew 3% and core sales also increased 3%. Segment income grew 13%, return on sales expanded 140 basis points, and adjusted EPS increased 21%. This performance was helped by positive sales mix, price costs, and productivity. Below the line we saw an adjusted tax rate of 16%, net interest other expense of $7.5 million, and our average shares in the quarter were 168.7 million. Please turn to Slide 12 labeled Q1 '20 Consumer Solutions performance. Consumer Solutions saw sales increase 9% with core sales growing 7%. Pool grew at a low double-digit rate against an easy comp and more normal weather pattern. The pool season appeared to start-off more positively this year. And as John alluded to earlier in the call, it seems anecdotally that pool owners who are sheltered in place are opening their pools perhaps a bit earlier than normal. Our Water Solutions business grew high-single-digits in the quarter as positive acquisition contribution help offset sharp declines in China and Southeast Asia that were impacted by the global pandemic. Within the larger U.S. market, demand had not begun to falloff at the end of the quarter and we are monitoring trends closely. The segment had strong segment income performance growing 13% year-over-year and ROS expanded 80 basis points to 21.8%. We are pleased with a strong start to the year by Consumer Solutions, but we expect that this will reverse course in the second quarter. While we plan to manage the cost structure accordingly, we remain focused on the long-term opportunities for the segment. Please turn to Slide 13 labeled Q1 '20 Industrial & Flow Technologies performance. IFT reported a 3% decline in sales with core growth down 2%. Residential and Irrigation flow saw flat sales performance as positive pricing and a still healthy professional channel was not enough to offset weakness in agriculture and retail. Commercial and Infrastructure Flow experienced a mid-single-digit decline in sales, as some of the backlog-driven business was negatively impacted by COVID-19 related delays. In addition, we continue to focus on improving internal delivery rates for this business, but overall backlog remains solid and we are monitoring the order book closely. Industrial Filtration saw sales decline low-single-digits due primarily to global delays and global projects. Similar to Commercial and Infrastructure Flow, this is a backlog-driven business and we will also be closely monitoring the order book for the business. Segment income was a positive story with a 9% year-over-year increase and ROS improved 150 basis points to 13.9%. While mix and price costs were positive contributors, productivity was especially strong. While its mix of businesses will create some near-term challenges for IFT, there remain a number of self-health opportunities that we remain focused on intently. I would now like to turn the call over to John to discuss our assumptions for the rest of 2020.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to Slide number 14 labeled 2020 current planning assumptions. While we have suspended our guidance until better visibility returns, we wanted to provide some of our current planning assumptions to help you understand how we're approaching the outlook for the remainder of the year. First, we are planning for recessionary environment. Forecasts call for double-digit declines in GDP in the short-term and it's hard to imagine that we would be immune from these external forces. While we have some businesses that may fare a little better than others such as our pool and water solutions businesses, other parts of the portfolio might see more significant near-term headwinds. As a result, as Mark highlighted earlier, we are aligning our costs with a lower expected value. We do have additional cost levers to pull if necessary. But we want to be thoughtful in pulling any of these levers too soon. We've made a number of significant investments to better position our Consumer Solutions business. And while we may delay some of those investments, we do not want to cut them off altogether. Our Pentair employees have been a big part of building our businesses. And I would like to keep our talented teams in place. And I'm hopeful that we can weather the storm and aggressively pursue opportunities in our segments as the economy recovers. As Mark highlighted earlier, we feel our liquidity is in a very strong position. We have historically been a strong cash flow generator. And I believe that we're well-positioned financially to weather this uncertain environment. Finally, our goals remain on protecting our employees, customers, and our businesses. We will continue to optimize our free cash flow and liquidity. And we expect to deliver the best financial results possible in near-term, while focused on our longer-term strategies. Before I turn the call over to Shelby for Q&A, I want to thank Mark for his partnership to me since 2008, and his tireless dedication to Pentair. I'm sure when Mark said he would stay to oversee a smooth transition, he never envisioned a quarter like this. I'm very excited to have Bob on board and he and Mark are driving a seamless transition. I'm very confident that Bob will be a great replacement for Mark, but I'm still losing and will miss one of my best friends. I wish you all the best, Mark. You truly deserve it. I would now like to turn the call over to Shelby for Q&A after which I will have a few closing remarks. Shelby, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski of Morgan Stanley.
John Stauch:
Hello Josh Pokrzywinski, how are you?
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Well thanks. How are you guys doing?
John Stauch:
Good.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Excellent. So I guess just first question anything that you can share with us, John, on exit rate, any kind of shutdown impact, impacting the commercial and hospitality level? Just trying to get a sense of maybe kind of the snap the line impact on demand today?
John Stauch:
Yes, Josh, I mean clearly we thought we're going to have a Q1 and quite frankly, it would have even been better than it was given the fact that we had to at given times we had five factories that were completely closed, and we were working through all of the global challenges around the shelter in place or the orders, country-by-country. So as I'm sure many companies have already shared that that became a little bit disruptive. Really proud of the teams about how they moved to create the social distancing and get most of our factories up and running because we didn't see supply chain disruptions very much but we did leave a little bit of backlog heading into the quarter. We did see starting April that the order rates are declining. And as I mentioned in my comments, we're not going to be immune. I think the fact that most global restaurants hospitality, et cetera closed, it's going to take a while for our distribution channel to balance that inventory need. One of the things we did learn though is that when these restaurants come back and open up, they're more likely to change those cartridges out for our water filtration unit. So that's the visibility we need to actually be able to call it. But across the portfolio as we started April, we certainly started to see order declines and revenue declines.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And maybe just a follow-up that might be a little bit easier to point to, anything in the portfolio or any sites that are closed as non-essential as we sit here today?
John Stauch:
Right now all of our factories are open. The degree of open and degree of capacity varies obviously, Josh, but right now we have 100% of our facilities deemed to be essential and therefore available to produce product.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
So really understand that the guidance pull but just trying to get a better sense of kind of April trends, as we and I don't know if you can go through either by business, what you're seeing in order of magnitude or what's proving most resilient versus most challenged as you look across the board, just trying to get a sharper more granularity there.
John Stauch:
Yes, Jeff, I appreciate the question. I mean I'd answer it a couple ways. First of all, we're global business, as you know, so everything's in a very degree of response to what's going on with this pandemic. I don't think April's a great month to judge anything on in general just because it's a very short month; it's got some holidays in. But if I put it in a context, I mean nothing was immune from an order softness, even including our pool business. As we mentioned, in our comments, I do think while we believe our pool business is likely to hold up through this at least Q2 because it is a key season and we do think those in-ground pools are going to be serviced, we do think that we're going to see a slowdown or push-out as some of the remodeling or the new pool builds as people monitor their spends. So I would just say overall, I mean we saw a pretty sharp decline in April to start. And we think our steepest decline for the year will be Q2. That being said, we also have the season for most of our businesses that might help mitigate it. So we're in a observe mode here for the next week or two as we watch orders and the order patterns. And also as we make sure that we're checking beyond our distributors into the sell-through into the channels, because that's key for us is what's tapping the sell-through to the consumer and then we can make our decisions on what we think the buy is going to be for the rest of the year.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then so you mentioned pool is maybe one of the more resilient ones what specifically are seeing the sharpest declines into April?
John Stauch:
I would say things like Ag OEM where we have the OEM offerings or we have into maintenance or equipment builds that would be on the sharper side, but they're here in the sort of like a 20% decline kind of range.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on the Industrial segment, margins looked really good there. If you were to see a 10% to 15% decline in that business on a full-year basis like what -- how resilient can the margins be or how should we think about decrementals?
John Stauch:
We're thinking mid-30s.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Tusa of JP Morgan.
Steve Tusa:
Sorry that that last answer was that for kind of total company what you would target for, what was that decremental margin comment again related to?
John Stauch:
I would say the question was specifically to IFT but I would say it would be relatively same across both ends of the portfolio and so that's both the total company and an IFT response.
Steve Tusa:
And that's for 2Q or that's for like total year?
John Stauch:
I would say if you look at the revenue for the total year, I think that would be the relative expectation we would have. So sales minus material, and then mitigated by cost actions to get to somewhere around a mid-30s decremental.
Steve Tusa:
And are you taking any of these cost actions? Are you taking structural costs? Do we see -- are we going to see restructuring go up? Or is it more of the temporary actions like furloughs and things like that and just kind of waiting and seeing how the volumes play out?
John Stauch:
Yes, our actions right now been limited to trying to pace the manufacturing labor in accordance with the volume declines and utilizing furloughs in those particular areas to make sure our employees are well taken care of and be there when the volume comes back as well as aggressively attacking purchase services and obviously getting benefits from things like PED and no Trade Shows for remainder of the year, Steve. So that's been where we are today which has been a cash focus. We have not yet looked at those 2008, 2009 levers, those are the ones that we're talking about would be the next lever to pull or any permanent reductions. And that would be based upon how we see things start to uncover here as we work our way through Q2.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. Okay. And is there a revenue decline that kind of breaks those decrementals like if revenues are down, I know Lennox talked about if revenues are down greater than 20% that they're decrementals kind of go to hell are you, a) is there like a level of revenue that you're thinking about that like hey, all bets are off on kind of those, those decrementals for you guys?
John Stauch:
I think you probably gave a pretty good answer there that once you get up to that like mid-20s then I think our decrementals start to get worse, right? I mean there's a level one of actions we're taking right now, we feel very confident. If volume continues to get challenged, we take that next set of actions and can still hold those decrementals. But yes, when you start, if you got up to like a mid-20 number, I think the decrementals would start to get worse. I don't see that at the moment, I don't see that happening in the long-term. And so what we're really looking at is really where are the longer-term order rates are and where are the longer-term sell-throughs for our products, and then have more visibility of product line by product line, what we think the impact is going to be, not just for 2020 but what we think a potential recovery could be into 2021. So I mean, really what we're doing is trying to position ourselves as best for how we recover.
Steve Tusa:
Right. And what are you seeing so far in April in the pool business?
John Stauch:
Sell-throughs have hung in through the visibility that we have not to our original forecasts, but we're doing relatively okay. But as I mentioned, I would be concerned as we proceed here through Q2 and Q3 that we start to see a slowdown or a pullback in the new construction build side or the new remodel which is a much higher price tag for the end consumer.
Steve Tusa:
Got it. One last one for you. Inflation has been kind of a stubborn drag for you guys. Any potential relief there? And then on free cash flow, can you guys kind of as volumes go down, can you translate that into better cash release some working capital?
John Stauch:
Yes. Mark? You want to --
Mark Borin:
Yes. So first just on inflation is we talked previously, certainly see that moderating this year and continuing to just focus on kind of that price cost being more neutral and not being the headwind that has been in the past so and looking for opportunities to mitigate continued inflationary pressures. So pursuing those things pretty aggressively. And then on the cash flow side, that's certainly the way we would think about it as well as is looking -- as we see that volume decline looking for opportunities on the working capital side to help us further, further improve the overall cash flow performance. But keeping track of it as you would expect really, really close monitoring of our customer receivables and ensuring that we feel comfortable that that those are continued to be credit worthy. And those are going to come in as planned, managing and monitoring our payables. And then being opportunistic, if necessary, to the extent we see places where we can help customers. We haven't seen a significant amount of that yet. But if opportunities come up where we need to help customers or work with our suppliers, we're certainly going to look at that as well all within the context of managing our own liquidity, which as I said in my comments we feel very good about.
Operator:
Your next question is from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Good morning, not to beat a dead horse here. But just on the pool business, know a lot of focus here just around the run rates and sort of activity levels you're seeing just because it's such a big piece of the business for you. And it sounds like it's been more resilient here at least in the early part of this COVID crisis. Would you say that, it's actually been tracking better year-on-year, even through the month of April. I know you're saying there's some slowdown, but the comps from last year, at least for the early part of Q2 are pretty, pretty solid. So wondering if you're still tracking better to that degree in the pool business?
John Stauch:
I'd say no. I mean, I just clearly share with you where we are. I mean, the sell-through to us matters because it's ultimately an indicator of how our distribution channel is going to prepare to support the dealer channel for those views and held up, like I said, for the most part, but we expect that as we move through Q2 and head into Q3 that we're going to see the order rates decline primarily around servicing those new pools or remodel pools. That's the working assumption right now. So I would say as we head into Q2, I don't think this pool business will fare better, it's not going to be immune to a year-over-year headwind.
Brian Lee:
Okay, fair enough. And then just a second question here on price, you had a positive two points here in Q1. Just wondering if you're expecting this to soften through 2020 given the weaker demand outlook, or just maybe if you could provide some context around how you've seen pricing trends in prior downturns and how you'd expect this one to compare to those?
Mark Borin:
Given the nature of our business, much of it through distribution, we would expect to see kind of price continue to readout. A lot of that price has already been put in and so it's in place. And it's at lower levels, again as I mentioned earlier, lower levels than we saw in late 2018 and into 2019. But continue to expect to see kind of price readout and again offset inflation.
John Stauch:
And I think if we thought about price adjustments as we head in 2021, that's probably where you'd see less of an increase if things continue the way they were.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano of Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
I apologize if you touched on any of these things in your prepared remarks, I had some issues getting into the call, but can you talk about the spending that you're going to plan on doing for some of the new tech enabled parts of the consumer platform like how does that change in an environment where you're managing cash and there might be slower adoptions of these things as consumers are a little bit weaker. So can you just talk about how you're thinking about those businesses going to help, how kind of fundamental they are to the forward view of the dumping?
John Stauch:
Yes, so just to put in perspective, the big consumer enabled investment we're making across Consumer Solutions is really the front-end win capability to be able to create a digital lead and to be able to transact that lead all the way into a collection. That project is ongoing; it will be completed by the end of the year. But order of magnitude think about a $3 million to $5 million kind of cash flow spend there, so not sizeable or significant in any one quarter and certainly something that I want to get after because of the impact it has in the business. There's natural delays in spend things like new product developments, new product development actions. Those are going to delay even if I didn't want them to because our lab capacity is not yet back up to 100% and a lot of new product designs are being pushed a little bit, at least a quarter to the right. As I mentioned, the Trade Shows, the marketing activities, et cetera, they're going to have a lot less impact. And so they're easier to moderate the spend on as we think about the investment cycle and the value of that investment. So I mean I think the only one that I'm keeping going really is our web enabled and I think it's important that we continue to build our brand and lean into this as a water expert, and a Consumer Solutions leader and that that's really, just that web capability, which I think is pretty modest given our overall cash generation.
Joe Giordano:
And how you're thinking about like the pacing of like once economy is open, how willing are people going to be to have people in their house, so how fast do commercial facility start ramp-up like I know you're not giving forward guidance but how you guys kind of framing that out once kind of orders are lifted?
John Stauch:
No, you got it right. And in my remarks, I said our Consumer Solutions water business or Water Solutions has several different channels. There's the traditional lead generation which would be more localized in nature, health probably not going to state fairs to do that business or kitchen and bath show, but you're still doing direct mail. We're seeing a lower response rate as far as the overall customer asking people to come and do the water filtration installs. That being said, we have a higher yield of the people that are asking to the actual convert, right. So less quotes but overall a higher percent of those quotes turning into sales. And that's what we're monitoring here as we move through. I mean other industries are dealing with this too. And I think we're just moving to contact less visits, training our employees to not touch things while they're there, looking at wearing masks, all those types of things to prepare for a safety environment. So we'll see how that unfolds in the next couple of quarters that's really where we're, Joe.
Joe Giordano:
Okay, and just last for me, I'm just done. Can you touch on the productivity you saw on consumers this quarter being a little bit light?
John Stauch:
Yes, I would say primarily two things mix of business. As I recall, I mean both businesses did fair bit well. We did have some challenges to get product out in our pool business. We continued some of those investments, as I said, but we also had to move to the shelter and place expectations primarily in China first where we had China shutdown. And so across all of our factories even though we were up and running between social distance things and the types of things we had to do to keep those factories running, we certainly weren't at 100% of our expected productivity yields.
Operator:
Your next question is from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz:
John, can you talk about your China and Southeast Asian business in particular, you had good momentum going into the pandemic. You mentioned you're back online, but demand hasn't recovered. So where is it versus pre-pandemic demand and is there any more color you can give us in the shape of the recovery? Is it UV? Anything more that you can give us there?
John Stauch:
Yes, I can. I obviously am very interesting curious of how things unfold because they were the first experiencing -- experience things they're first to go back to normal or you saw they work. But candidly even though we're having and seeing restaurants open in China, we're not seeing the traffic in those restaurants anywhere near pre-pandemic and think of that maybe is a third or 50% and the aspects of people coming back into the capacity used to have. When it comes to the residential commercial side and the retail elements, the way people transacted was going into a retail area, looking at the particular device that they wanted to buy, and then ordering online, that traffic is also a lot slower than it was pandemic. So while our capacity is up and running, we're seeing demand slowly recover but at a very moderated rate. And I can't predict when it's going to come back to pre-pandemic levels. But let's say it's climbing up the curve slowly.
Andy Kaplowitz:
That's helpful. And then if I look at your food and beverage filtration business around the world, not just China obviously, you talked about it falling-off significantly, when the shelter in-place initiatives ramped up, has that rate of decline stabilized yet outside of China and how much overall exposures you have to that particular filtration business?
John Stauch:
Yes, so a couple of things. In filtration our F&B is really around pure membrane filtration components into dairy into beer and then as the CO2 recovering the sustainability. So productivity and efficiency is what it really promotes on the Industrial Filtration side, that business is still doing relatively okay, especially given the fact that beverage is generally up across the world. If you flip that into Consumer Solutions, that's where we've got the water filtration into hospitality. So hotels, restaurants that is the business that's been extremely challenged. And while we expect that to come -- start coming back online as we see states and countries open, I think that's going to be a long slug to get back to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Saree Boroditsky of Jefferies.
Saree Boroditsky:
Thanks. So you suspended your share repurchases on lower CapEx in the quarter. Could you just talk to how you're thinking about capital deployment in this current environment? And what was unique in the market in order to start lifting these restrictions?
Mark Borin:
Sure. As I talked about, the really a very strong focus on liquidity and maintaining our liquidity in light of the uncertainty and so we're going to wait and see with respect to share repurchases and just how we deploy and utilize our capital. So really pulling that back and sitting on the sideline and waiting to see how things play out. We continue to pay our dividend and that's something that's very important to us. And so we'll continue to look at that as well. But that would be something that we would see as a priority, as we think about how we're allocating and spending our capital.
Saree Boroditsky:
And then you highlighted material savings as one cost stuff that you're targeting. Could you provide some color on how your conversations with suppliers are progressing and are you getting any pushback there?
John Stauch:
Yes, couple of things. I mean I want to be clear. I mean, as far as direct sourcing savings, we're expecting inflation to moderate, but I haven't put a lot of savings into the forecast regarding that just because of the length of time it takes to realize. What I was talking to is purchase services more discretionary spend or outside purchased services. And listen we're not the only company doing that. So delaying, deferring, eliminating is really what we're doing there. So it's not really supplier negotiations, more of our choice not to spend.
Operator:
Your next question is from Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Hey just wanted to wish Mark all the best and a welcome to Bob when he starts I think you said tomorrow.
John Stauch:
Well, he's actually officially there tomorrow. He's been here for --
Mark Borin:
He's been here for two weeks and he's intently listening to this call.
John Stauch:
And he's listening on this forecast. He owns this forecast. And he's been a big part of it. So thank you, Deane.
Deane Dray:
That's good to hear. All right. So first question, I guess I'm qualified as one of these high quality problems to ask because I'm still kind of unclear. Why did you pull the first quarter guidance, when you ended up with what we would consider a high quality beat? You've pulled the guidance in right towards the end of March so you probably had a good sense of how you were going to shake out in the quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes, I appreciate it Deane. That is a great question, I mean, but here's really where I was at. I got to a point where we have large facilities, especially at support pool and pool as you know is a big piece of our overall revenue stream. And as these state shelter and places started to be named and there was confusion about what was essential and non-essential, I felt we needed to pull the guidance because the decision on any given day could become a material event to Pentair's earnings and disclosures. So we were able to work through those better than I anticipated and we shipped more products than I thought we would. But that's -- that's the short answer to you.
Deane Dray:
That's -- that's real helpful. And just on that theme because we were watching this carefully regarding which businesses states were saying were essential, and it wasn't clear whether pool servicing was going to be consistently considered essential or not like in Connecticut, it was in parts of New York and not the whole state, it was not. So where does that stand in terms of state-by-state? I will not go through them all, but just are they all now considered essential or are there pockets where it's not?
John Stauch:
I would struggle saying all. I think we're well into the 90% type of range where our pool dealers are sharing with us that they're servicing pools in their particular areas, and probably even higher than that and pool turns green if you don't do anything with it. So it's also an outdoor backyard type of activity. So I think they've been able to work through that relatively well-being. But we're in constant contact with that channel that channel is reporting that they're back servicing pools for sure.
Deane Dray:
Yes, we agree. We think that's well-positioned. And then last question is I know it's not a big piece of the business but on the municipal side, what's your sense of the muni-budgets over the near-term, a big chunk of your businesses break and fix that tends to be really resilience but in terms of projects, there's usually a delay before munis start pulling back, but is there anything different this time? What's your expectation?
John Stauch:
I think it's lack of visibility right now, Deane. I mean one hand you would say in your gut, that states are going to be challenged certainly for budgets and tax revenue. And they're going to see a compression of the overall tax revenue and how to spend it. So you'd say that that would be a negative potential headwind that would start to unfold in Q3 and Q4. In the same sense, a lot of these states and the federal government are talking about infrastructure builds to try to get people working again. So I don't know yet. And that's a big part of the lack of visibility that we're referring to. So we're monitoring the backlog. We're monitoring the orders. It is a break and fix for the most part, Deane. But that's the one that I really have no visibility into at the moment.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
I'd like to start on channel inventories outside of pool; I think you said on the pool business you think the channel inventories there are okay. But could you comment on the channel inventories outside of pool, any expectations you have for destocking and what kind of impact that could have on the top-line over the next two, three quarters?
John Stauch:
No, I really -- really don't have the specificity except everything looks more normal, Nathan, it doesn't walk out of line. That being said, we don't yet have all of that visibility around the sell-through into the dealers, into the channel. And one of the things we'll be monitoring. One of the areas that I would envision the inventory being slightly high, and I don't mean by a lot, but a little bit would be in the foodservice area where if we think about our revenue streams as we exited the quarter to where we are and what mode that channel is in right now. I think these inventory in the channel will service the startups and will have that slower ramp-up in that particular business than we will in most of the others.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. A follow-up on that productivity question from earlier. With volumes likely to decline ahead here, does that put pressure on your expected productivity numbers for the year? If we take out discrete events like having to close down a facility or something like that and the impact that could have? Or are you able to accelerate productivity actions to make up for that, just how you're thinking about productivity in a declining volume environment?
John Stauch:
No, you're right it does put pressure. And if you don't get the cost out in the labor and the overhead in the factory, you end up producing unwanted inventory which usually challenges you and the recovery occurs. So it is the keenly -- it is the most focused area we are. We also learned and the last recoveries both in this one in valves and control to the downturns in 2008/2009. And valves and controls is the area that you got to have the most amount of focus on because if you don't get after that cost on the input side, you don't see in the short run from a P&L issue but you start seeing it in the form of cash and then you don't benefit when the market recovers as I said. So it is Playbook 101 to make sure we're pacing that manufacturing cost with the downturn volume and it should reflect orders more than sales data.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, I've got one more. I'm going to have one more crack at the top-line question because we don't have a lot of historical data about these businesses and how they've reacted in recessions. You said you're preparing for a recessionary environment. Can you give us any color on what these businesses have typically seen in a recessionary environment? And whether it's a reasonable expectation for this time to be shorter and sharper than historically?
John Stauch:
Nathan, I got all of these notes in front of me. Don't give guidance on revenue. Don't get -- I'm not going to give it to you even though you asked it different way. I mean, here's the challenge we have, this is not like anything we've seen before. When we took a look at this and people say looking at 2008/2009, you're looking at 2000. What recession are you going back to? Keep in mind our businesses got residential, significant residential exposure. And when we entered that 2006, 2007, 2008 timeframe, we're talking about housing starts, two to three times normal levels. And that that was an inventory that had to work its way down. We're not in that situation with housing today. Where we're at is the pandemic is causing stay at homes, it's causing loss of employment, it's causing stress to people on where are they in their spending patterns. And until there's visibility there, it's hard to predict how those wallets can open up again, and then how that demand comes back across our businesses. That's -- that's why I can't give you a number, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Graham of Rosenblatt Securities.
Scott Graham:
Yes. Hey, good morning, and good luck to you, Mark.
Mark Borin:
Thanks, Scott.
John Stauch:
Thanks, Scott.
Scott Graham:
So I'm going to beat that dead horse a little bit further. I'm sorry, but that's the best way. So, we are April 30 and we're kind of the first month and you were kind of giving us some order rate numbers as sort of we turned into April, I guess I was curious to understand that the use of the word sharp, which we're just trying to hang on to anything here to try to make our models work, essentially. And then you turned around and you the first place you went to was Ag which is a very small business and you said down 20, down 20 doesn't feel sharp to me, maybe that's to you, but if Ag OEM down 20 in April on orders, are you suggesting that that was the worst business model?
John Stauch:
That is sharp. That's -- I would think -- I feel sharp to me, especially given the Q1 we had, Scott. So keep in mind, we're continuing to see orders rising throughout Q1. And even though the pandemic worked its way across the globe in various degrees, we did still see demand hang in there to what would have likely been up until the last couple of weeks of March. And even some of that was, we still saw orders, we didn't know if that was customers buying inventory with the anticipation of supply chain disruption et cetera, et cetera. So but you had an April and I think most people have been very planful the way they thought about reacting to shelters in place and overall volume and demand. And just like us, if we're going to see a decrease in Q2, I mean shouldn't we pace our manufacturing in line with that that expected decline and get in front of it in a planful way as I think a lot of our customers were doing. So yes, you got the outer end of where I think Q2 could be. But that being said, I don't think April was indicative of any pattern or trend yet. And as we enter into May and June, we'll have a much better clarity, primarily because this is our season. This is usually our peak quarter in the year, Scott.
Scott Graham:
Yes, no understood, understood that was great additional color. Thank you. Just one other question. And I'm hoping you can connect these thoughts maybe very simply. You have in your decremental of 60, and that's with no cost actions. And you're now alluding to a sort of mid-30s number. So can I take that to mean that that line, that connection is very simply all of these variable cost actions that you're doing because obviously, you're not doing anything structural yet, is that how you get there?
John Stauch:
Yes, yes.
Scott Graham:
I told you, it would be simple. Thanks a lot, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Scott.
Mark Borin:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning and I'd like to give a thank you to Mark for all the help. Maybe just my first question around you've mentioned that several times the issues in the hospitality and restaurant sector, maybe just size those for us in terms of Pentair kind of firm wide. How large is that piece of your end-market exposure, where you're most worried about a sluggish recovery? And then could you just remind us or update us on the status of organic sales trends within Aquion and Pelican and how satisfied you are with their integration to-date?
John Stauch:
Yes, so 6% of sales roughly would be that that commercial food service revenue for overall Pentair. Okay, most of that tied to cartridge replacement, or aftermarket replacement. And we'll call that the predominant 75% to 80% of it and the 20% maybe on original equipment install. As far as the second question, yes, very happy with both of the acquisitions for different reasons. So, as a reminder, what we like about the Aquion acquisition was it made softener systems and POU systems and that systems integration and capability is something we're excited about as we start to brand it Pentair and Pentair Water Solutions and offer it to a broader channel set. This front-end, though, is an affiliated channel. And that affiliated channel primarily works through Home Depot, and the traffic in Home Depot is not there to demand or ask for those leads. And also a lot of those leads come from larger appliance purchases where softening the water is kind of critical. So let's say we've seen a drop-off in the demand on that front-end of the channel. Opposite story, the Pelican Water Solutions where we do our own direct lead and we market and we can market on digital media, things like Facebook, I see us on LinkedIn, et cetera. Those are different channel dynamics. And as I mentioned earlier, even though we're getting less leads, we're converting those leads at a higher rate, meaning we have a much more interested party to gaining. So the revenue up on the direct channel is up significantly, I mean it's in line with what we expected. And on the other side, we have seen a fall-off demand because of our retail traffic, as I mentioned, but we're happy with the systems capability that it brings. And that's why I want to continue to invest in the front-end of the channel because I think if we're doing our lead-generation and we're converting that into our systems and the things we're selling, we gain that higher margin but we're also controlling our own destiny. And so that's why I'm excited about seeing through the Water Solutions piece.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you very much. And just my follow-up question, you'd noted that the sell-through of pool product has been good so far in Q2. And I just trying to hone in on that sell-in, there was a company this morning also in the sort of building products arena focused on tools. They talked about double-digit sort of point-of-sales increase in April but their sell-in into that market could be down 30% or so. So enormous disparity between the sell-in and the sell-through. I guess what I'm looking at Pentair. Am I right in thinking that there is a large disparity, but perhaps not on the scale of what that tools company had mentioned they had seen in April?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think you're thinking about it, right. I think the magnitude is a lot less than Tool Company. But that is exactly where I'm at meaning I think the sell, sell-through the channel remains positive, I would expect us to be in a sell-in negative not because there's extra inventory today but because that channel is got to anticipate the falling demand as it looks forward into the new pools and remodeled pools. And I think they'll moderate their orders until they see that that part of the market continues to unfold.
Operator:
Steve Tusa of JP Morgan has a follow-up question.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys, sorry. Did I say you had no basically no disruption from the kind of plant shutdown in California?
John Stauch:
I did not say that. So thank you for the clarification. What I said was at one point we were shut down or told to shut down, we deemed ourselves as essential. Got backup online, obviously, not at the full capacity. And quite frankly, Steve it was as I mentioned having backlog and pass-through at the end of the quarter which is not a normal pool that is actually a facility in which we have backlog and past dues still due today.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So like you would -- would you have been able, was there any meaningful impact to the quarter?
John Stauch:
There would have been at least another $10 million of revenue from that one plant alone.
Steve Tusa:
That said, it's -- thanks for not I mean a lot of companies are kind of using obviously many trying to kind of use this as many piece as possible. We appreciate you guys just kind of eating that to a degree and putting it in the results. So thanks for the clarification. Best of luck in the second quarter.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
There are no other questions in queue. John, do you have any closing remarks?
John Stauch:
I do. Thanks Shelby. Thank you for joining us today. I just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone of our long-term strategy which remains unchanged. We believe we serve large and stable end markets, particularly within our Consumer Solutions segment. Our pool business has a proven track record and we believe we're positioning our Water Solutions businesses to take advantage of helping consumers and businesses solve their water quality needs. We still see a number of growth levers longer-term. Our 2019 acquisitions of Aquion and Pelican help move us closer to the consumer and we have continued to invest in building our digital capabilities and new product pipeline. In addition, we're accelerating PIMS to help fund many of our growth initiatives. We've been and will continue to be focused on disciplined capital allocation. We started with our commitment to our investment grade ratings. We've increased our dividend for 44 consecutive years and are proud to be a dividend aristocrat. We expect to continue to use our strong cash flow to fund the most attractive growth opportunities. Before I turn the call over to Shelby for Q&A -- I just want to let everybody know that we are navigating these uncertain times together and I would like to offer my best wishes to all of our employees, customers, and shareholders. Thank you for your continued interest. Shelby, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thanking for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 2019 Pentair PLC Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Mariama, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us today. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter 2019 performance, as well as our first quarter and full year 2020 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions-and-answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4 titled, Executive Summary. We were very pleased to deliver fourth quarter and full year results in line with our expectations. Despite a few macro challenges at the beginning of 2019, we stabilized performance, we continued to invest in our top priorities, and believe we made very good progress in further positioning Pentair as a leading water treatment company. During 2019, we completed two strategic acquisitions that allowed us to move closer to the consumer and we made great strides in accelerating our growth investments around marketing, brand building and innovation. While our Pentair Integrated Management System or PIMS has been a strong foundation for how we operate our company. We continue to evolve PIMS to go well beyond just operational excellence and make it an integral part of driving the high performance growth culture. As we approach the two year anniversary of becoming a pure play water company, we believe our strategy is sound and we must continue to be agile to better align our organization with our strategies and just as important to better align with our customer base, we are moving to two reporting segments. I will discuss the new segment structure in greater detail shortly. We are introducing guidance today for 2020 and we expect to return to core sales growth and solid segment income and EPS growth, along with strong cash flow performance. I also wanted to take a moment to comment in a second press release that we issued this morning. Mark Borin has informed us that he is resigning from Pentair as CFO to accept an operational leadership opportunity at a private employee-owned company. Mark has been a trusted partner for the last twelve years and has been an important leader in building a strong finance foundation at Pentair. We have commenced a search for our new CFO and Mark plans to remain in his role with Pentair through the search process and to assist with an orderly transition. Mark will truly be missed and we wish him continued success as he moves to the next chapter of his career. Please turn to Slide number 5 labeled Executing a Consistent Strategy. When we embarked on a strategy as a pure play water company a few years ago, we were excited at the significant opportunities that existed with a leading cool franchise, we have a large installed base to serve and therefore significant opportunity to increase content. We also identified a number of exciting opportunities in residential and commercial water treatment and we continue to build on our strong foundation. We have made notable progress in the migration from being a component supplier to offering systems and solutions to help consumers solve their water quality needs. Sustainability awareness is increasing around the globe and we have a broad portfolio of technologies and services to help solve many of the world’s challenges regarding access to clean, safe and great tasting water. During 2019, we made two strategic acquisitions that we disclosed to the consumer. We have learned a lot in a short time about consumer needs and preferences and we look forward to updating you throughout the year as we expect to further expand our business to directly solve these consumer desires. We have shared with you in the past that we identified two key priorities for Pentair; advanced pool growth and accelerate residential and commercial water treatment. We continue to fund these initiatives as well as build out our overall capabilities. These investments are now in our base and we plan to continue to fund the most attractive growth opportunities as we head into 2020. We made a lot of progress last year around digital transformation, innovation, technology and building our brand. During 2019, we consolidated 35 websites to one Pentair.com, which resulted in a 60% increase in web traffic for the year. We are still in the early stages of our digital transformation. We are very pleased with the progress we have made in a short time and we are excited about what more we can do. Also in 2019, we had an enterprise-wide launch of Salesforce.com that is enabling our various businesses to better share information and is linked to our digital strategy with customers. As the company completed its separation in 2018, we identified a need to improve our new product development pipeline and we are pleased that 2019 was a productive year for our technology development initiatives. Over the next 12 to 18 months, we expect to introduce a number of exciting new water treatment solutions and today, we are proud to give you an update on the major progress we have made on our journey to develop smart IoT-connected solutions. This past year, we made significant investments to build the internal talent and strategic partnerships to develop our IoT cloud architecture that supports our residential, commercial and industrial applications. Based on this IoT platform, we developed two Apps, the Pentair Home App for the consumer and the Pentair Pro App for our dealers. We expect these apps to seamlessly connect an entire suite of soon to launch residential products. Ten in total throughout 2020 including a smart water softening valve, two new pool automation systems, and a host of residential flow control products. Considering the breadth of our residential water products, this new IoT platform is a major differentiator for our single product category competitors. We believe this new platform will play a key role to raise Pentair’s brand awareness with consumers as we become the go to company for solving consumer water needs. We also believe it will create increased dealer loyalty by generating new sales leads, as well as improved customer loyalty to more easily attainable service offerings. Finally, we expect this platform to also enable improved sales of additional Pentair products and services, as well as being avenue to drive recurring monthly revenue services directly to Pentair. We have also made significant progress in both commercial and industrial food and beverage applications. The next generation of our leading RO system for high-end coffee shops, and other food service applications is now IoT enabled for real-time performance monitoring and to incorporate new features to while predictive maintenance of key system components including the pumps and filtration elements. Finally, in our food and beverage business, we developed and implemented the brewer cloud, an IoT solution to enable monitoring of the service for our industry-leading beer membrane filtration systems. The IoT service includes 24/7 support, a proactive monitoring and reporting. The use of IoT is helping to accelerate the adoption of the innovative BMF solution and enable the service contracts to scale efficiently with real-time analysis. By using the brewer cloud service platform, we’ve been able to demonstrate strong increases and production efficiency for customers. Ultimately, we believe this IoT service solution helps both stronger, strategic customer focus relationships with our brewing partners, also opening up new application opportunities for our products. The final element around our strategy is disciplined capital allocation. We recently announced that 2020 will mark the 44th consecutive year of dividend increases which places Pentair in rather a lead company as a dividend aristocrat. We plan to continue to use our cash flow to fund the most attractive growth opportunities both organically and inorganically while still being mindful of returning capital to our shareholders and remaining committed to our investment-grade ratings. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Evolving to Attain Our Vision. Over the past year, we completed a 5,000 person North American segmentation analysis that has provided us detailed information on how consumers make purchases decisions. In essence, codifying the customer journeys with Pentair and our products. This helped us move forward with an informed decision on how to better position our portfolio to align with our strategies and our customer base. We must move with a greater sense of urgency in supporting the needs of our varying customers. This segmentation data helped inform us as we reorganized into two business segments, Consumer Solutions and Industrial & Flow Technologies. While the businesses have always had different customers, influencers and go to market strategies, various parts of our business are more closely aligned. We believe the new alignment into a business to consumer-focused segment, Consumer Solutions, a primarily business-to-business driven segment, Industrial & Flow Technologies, better positions our teams to build upon our core strengths, more aggressively pursue our growth opportunities, increase productivity and enhance profitability. The ultimate goal is to exceed the expectations of our customers, and all other stakeholders and we believe that we can do that. But we have moved forward into 2020 with great enthusiasm. Let me now expand in more detail what the two segments are. Consumer Solutions is made up of pool and water solutions. Historically, pool comprised the majority of our prior Aquatic Solutions segment, while Water Solutions is comprised what we historically refer to as Residential and Commercial Filtration that was part of the Filtration Solutions segment. Water Solutions consists of components, systems, end-to-end services and our focus on the China’s Southeast Asia region. The objectives for the Consumer Solutions team are to accelerate revenue growth and income, enhance consumer branding and experiences, and build an expanded services capability. We believe the opportunity to grow our Consumer Solutions business is significant. Industrial & Flow Technologies or IFT is made up of three businesses. The first piece of IFT is the remainder of what was previously in the Filtration Solutions segment. These businesses are focused on Industrial Filtration, including a strong niche in food and beverage filtration. The other two pieces of IFT comes from the previous Flow Technologies segment. The two businesses are Residential Irrigation Flow, big, small pumps and Commercial and Infrastructure Flow, which is primarily larger engineered pumps. This segment is primarily focused on B2B customers. The businesses that make up this segment have similar operational characteristics and we believe combining these businesses in this new structure can realize incremental value in the areas of engineering, solutions, sourcing, technology, IoT innovation and regional support. Our new segment structure is focused on better alignment around our product and service offerings by customer type to maximize the customer experience and drive profitable growth. We expect this new structure to further each teams’ ability to prioritize opportunities, accelerate decision-making processes, optimally allocate resources, innovate to develop improved new products and services, and maximize our go to market strategies. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark to focus on our financial results in more detail. Mark?
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Q4 2019 Pentair Performance. For the fourth quarter, overall sales increased 2% with core sales down 1%. Segment income grew 5% and adjusted EPS increased 13%. We'll provide more color on the individual segment performance shortly. Below the line, we saw an adjusted tax rate of 13.4%, net interest, other expense of $7.3 million and our average shares in the quarter were $169.3 million. The lower tax rate during the quarter and for the full year was the result of our tax strategies being spread over a lower income level in 2019 and we would anticipate a higher tax rate in 2020 as we expect income to grow. For the third consecutive quarter, price was in line or better than inflation and productivity was strong in the quarter. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Full Year 2019 Pentair Performance. This slide looks at Pentair’s full year performance. For 2019, sales were flat with core sales down 1%, while we experienced a very slow start to the year, we saw continued stabilization in the subsequent quarters, and an overall improvement in our performance. For the full year, segment income was down 4% and return on sales declined 60 basis points to 17.5%. Price nearly offset inflation for the full year and productivity built momentum as the year progressed. The adjusted tax rate for the full year ended at 16%, net interest other was $34 million and the average share count was 170.4 million. Adjusted EPS of $2.38 represented a modest year-over-year increase. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Q4 2019 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the fourth quarter performance of our three segments; Aquatic Systems’ core sales grew 1% as normal early buy programs returned to more historical patterns. Segment income for Aquatics grew 9% and return on sales increased an impressive 260 basis points to 30.8%. While we have to wait to see how the spring season unfolds, we are encouraged that our channel inventory appears closer to more historical normal levels. Filtration Solutions saw core sales decline 2%, segment income fall 4% and return on sales contract 210 basis points to 15.8%. There continues to be a number of moving parts to Filtration Solutions, but overall, we believe the business is better positioned exiting 2019. On the residential and commercial side, the integration of Aquion and Pelican made good progress throughout the year. In the core business, we saw systems grow nicely, which impart offset continued softness in the components business. Within the Industrial business, there was some softness during the quarter due to the shipment timing of certain large orders. We continue to invest in the residential and commercial business, which did had some impact on the income performance during the quarter. However, we believe this better positions the business going forward. Flow Technologies saw core sales decline 1%. However, segment income grew 10% and return on sales expanded 150 basis points to 13.5%. While the top-line remain mixed within Flow Technologies, strong pricing and easier inflation comp and improved productivity contributed to the strong income and ROS expansion in the quarter. We made a number of investments in Flow Technologies in 2019 to help improve productivity and we would expect that momentum to carry into the New Year. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Our balance sheet ended the year in great shape with leverage comfortably below two-times, a well-balanced mix of fixed and variable debt, and our average borrowing rate just below 3%. Free cash flow for the year was just below $300 million and we were clearly disappointed in the results. However, we believe that most of the contributing factors were one-time in nature and we would expect 2020 to see cash flow return to greater than 100% conversion of net income. As the table on the left side of the slide shows, the two biggest contributing factors to the weaker cash flow performance were working capital and other accruals. The biggest comfort within working capital was around payables timing. Just as we had increased prices to help mitigate unprecedented material inflation, we experienced a similar phenomenon from many of our suppliers. The timing of some of these increases and our subsequent actions saw inventory come on the balance sheet and the timing of payables slip from the end of 2018 into the beginning of 2019. With that now behind us, we expect working capital to normalize and not be as big of a swing going forward. Within other accruals, there were a number of one-time factors that were not big individually, but collectively added up to contribute to the year-over-year swing. This includes timing of tax payments and pension termination that included the funding of an annuity. Similar to the comment on working capital, we have now cleaned up most of the long-term liabilities on the balance sheet and we would expect less volatility in this category going forward. Our long-term cash profile remained unchanged and we are committed to delivering free cash flow to be greater than our net income. The balance sheet has a lot of flexibility and we strengthened our overall capital structure throughout 2019. Please turn to Slide 11 labeled Q1 2020 Pentair Outlook. For the first quarter, we expect core sales to be up 4% to 6%. We expect Consumer Solutions to be up 9% to 11% driven by pool. We would remind you that the pool season in some years varies from a March to April start depending on weather, but overall, we expect a strong pool performance in the first half. We expect Industrial & Flow Technologies to be flattish reflecting modest recovery on our Residential Irrigation business, offset by slightly softer Industrial sales. We expect segment income to be up approximately 9% to 13%, driven by solid volume growth, better price cost and improved productivity. We expect adjusted EPS to be in a range of $0.48 to $0.51 per share. Below the line, we expect corporate expense to be approximately $17 million to $18 million. We expect our first quarter adjusted tax rate to be around 17%. We also expect net interest other expense of roughly $8 million and shares to be approximately 169 million to 170 million. Please turn to Slide 12 labeled Full Year 2020 Pentair Outlook. For the full year, we expect core sales to be up 2% to 4%, driven by an expected 5% to 7% increase in Consumer Solutions and relatively flattish top-line performance from Industrial & Flow Technologies. We expect segment income to be up around 3% to 6%. We are introducing guidance of an adjusted EPS range of $2.50 to $2.55 per share. Other items embedded in our guidance include, expected corporate expense of approximately $65 million, an adjusted tax rate of 17%, net interest, other expense of $27 million to $29 million, and an average share count for the year of 168 million to 169 million shares. We are targeting free cash flow greater than 100% of net income, capital expenditures of approximately $60 million, depreciation and amortization around $80 million and non-cash stock compensation expense to approximate $25 million. Before we turn the call over to Q&A, I would like to take a moment to thank everyone, especially, John for the support I have received through my long tenure with Pentair. I believe that Pentair’s strategy is strong and I am excited about what we have built here. I will help to ensure an orderly transition and I am excited about the opportunity to become an operating leader at a private employee-owned company. I would now like to turn the call over to Mariama for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Mariama, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond :
Hey, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Jeff.
Mark Borin:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond :
Just with the segment change, can you give us a better sense of how you are thinking about pool core growth versus Filtration within that 5% to 7%? And then, Mark, you mentioned inventory levels kind of approaching normal. Would that suggest there is still a little bit high or lean coming into the year? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Sure. So, first on core growth side, you can assume that the majority of that higher core growth in the first quarter and for the full year is driven by the pool business within Consumer Solutions with their Residential Commercial Filtration Systems side being little bit more moderated but also contributing to the higher core growth. On the inventory side, yes, we see inventory levels now back to more normalized levels and so, as we’ve talked about throughout the year, that was the objective and we saw those come back in line and we would anticipate not having to really comment on inventories going forward.
Jeff Hammond :
Okay, great. And then, looking at the new segments, it looks like the margin differential, pretty start – just how do we think about capital allocation, portfolio simplification within the two segments, and just maybe comment on where you think entitlement margins should be in the two segments? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes, I think, one of the reasons to put the like businesses together we mentioned was really about the consumer focus and we had the opportunity to share digital marketing strategies across the Water Solutions and pool. We all have the ability to utilize branding, messaging and also when you think about where the pool revenue is by states and geography, those are huge water opportunities from a drinking water perspective. So there is a lot of strategic growth opportunities on the Consumer Solutions side. On the IFT side, we think we have a lot of operational efficiencies we can drive both in the way that we – it’s a very global business. So the geographical footprint has the opportunity to be better understood and better optimized. And we also have project learnings from each of the businesses Jeff that we think we can expand to PIMS capability to be more efficient in a way that we deliver projects to our end-customer base. So, ultimately, we feel really good about this line-up. Both have margin opportunities. I think in the short run, you are going to see more margin expansion in the IFT side while we invest heavily in the Consumer Solutions to build out the consumer side, but as you know, the Consumer Solutions businesses have a higher starting ROS level.
Jeff Hammond :
Okay. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jeff.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
John Stauch:
Steve? Steve? Maybe the mute button Steve.
Operator:
Steve Tusa, Your line is open.
John Stauch:
Should we come back to Steve?
Jim Lucas :
Yes. We’ll go to the next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Lee :
Hey guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey, good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Brian Lee :
Morning. Just a question on the guidance, I guess for Q1 and 2020, it would seem to imply the segment income growth is fading quite a bit starting from the 9% to 13% in Q1 to average out to just a 3% or 6% for the full year. I assume some of that is the tougher back half comps versus the first half, but maybe give us a sense for what else is embedded in there moving through the year in your assumptions that kind of drives little bit of that fade as you move through the year?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think you nailed it. I mean, we have some easier comparisons than the first half of the year and we believe that we are going to get back to normal seasonality given what we are expecting around the overall demand in our business. So, you got it. The second one is, we are going to continue to invest in our growth opportunities and that core assumption of that continued investment is in all year, but it’s muting kind of the back half performance.
Brian Lee :
Okay. Fair enough. And then, John, speaking of investment, you talked about the water services opportunity here in resi and commercial. Can you maybe give us some more context, the infrastructure you have in place today for that? What new investments you are making there? And then, what sort of revenue opportunity and timing is reasonable to expect there? And then maybe just if I could squeeze one in lastly, just on the margins, with respect to that opportunity any sense of where that stacks up in terms of ROS ranges versus the rest of the portfolio of offerings? Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Yes, so, what infrastructure we have, we purchased Pelican which gave us the end-to-end solutions and the in-home residential experience that we think we can move forward under what would comp Pentair Water Solutions. And we want to be the fully integrated supplier to be able to give to consumers good quality drinking water at their point of use in the home. We also think we can expand that capability into commercial and really utilize our commercial expertise and our water expertise to expand where you work and where you live. So, we are building out that infrastructure and capability. A lot of that’s digital. The rest of it’s really highly around the technical capabilities we are bringing around our ability to solve those solutions either in the home or in the commercial application through carbonation and/or chilled water and/or salt free applications. So that’s really where we’ve been spending our time. I would also say that the margins in these businesses start out on a really nice basis. Think about around 20%-ish and we believe that growth highly leverages both the investment and the existing infrastructure we have.
Brian Lee :
All right. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, sorry about missing that – missing you guys calling.
John Stauch:
No problem, Steve.
Mark Borin:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
The kind of the bridge for next year, can you just kind of clarify what kind of the magnitude is some of these moving parts when you said you have investment and then you know, price inflation, productivity, just kind of the big buckets that roughly you are expecting for next year? For 2020?
Mark Borin:
Sure, sure, let me try to walk through it, Steve. So, maybe first just thinking about price cost. As we talked before, we expect to be back to kind of a more historical normal level, look at price cost kind of offsetting and being in that 1% to 2% range. We have got the – so that’s embedded in the core growth and volume growth, on top of that, we would expect to see drop through and that’s kind of mid-30s range to 40% on the volume drop through. And then, from a productivity perspective, John referenced earlier, we would expect to see productivity coming out of Industrial or the IFT segment. And then offsetting that, we certainly do have there are some things that will be headwind in 2020 coming out of 2019. If you think about incentive compensation and some other variable expense items that would have been lower in 2019 that really is headwind to negative productivity in 2020. So that would be an offset to the actual productivity that the businesses are driving.
Steve Tusa:
So, ultimately, kind of on a net basis, productivity versus kind of those investments, is that flat? Is that still positive or what would you kind of expect to see on that front?
Mark Borin:
Yes, it’s kind of flattish to slightly positive.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then, on the cash flow side, big working capital headwind this year. Are you expecting working capital, you said it’s going to be now 100, greater than a 100 to net income, do you expect to see working capital as a positive obviously next year, if that’s the case?
Mark Borin:
So, I think, working capital, think of it as a positive on a year-over-year basis. So, as I said in my comments, it’s negatively affected us this year primarily looking at payables timing and a little bit on just receivables and much of that is related to the situation from 2018 and then bleeding over into 2019. And as we look at 2020, we are back to – well, I think it’s a more normalized level. So we shouldn’t see big swings either to the positive or the negative frankly on working capital and you know, just to be clear on the guide around a 100% of net income versus a 100% of adjusted net income, we do recognize there are certain things that are reflected in adjusted net income that our cash expenses and so that’s also part of – as we think about what the reasonable expectation on a conversion basis. So, it’s something on an adjusted basis, just slightly less than a 100%. But the guide would be greater than a 100% of net income.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot guys. I appreciate it.
Mark Borin:
Thanks, Steve.
John Stauch:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is open.
Joe Giordano :
Hey guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey, Joe.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano :
Hey, and so, I wanted to start on the segmentation. Just like optically, it seems like you are putting the assets that you have been more happy within one bucket on the ones and another like. Is some sort of portfolio change or sale of a business or spin of a business? Is that like something that’s on the table? Or is that even something that’s been thought about?
John Stauch:
No. I mean, clearly, this is more of a growth in operational efficiency and we like the business as we have. I do think when it comes to prioritizing across the portfolio, you can expect more of the capital allocation as far as the acquisition to be on the Consumer Solutions side. And as far as the day-to-day growth investments, probably in the near-term on the Consumer Solutions side. But we have businesses that have performed well in the IFT side and we want to continue to prior to those – prioritize those within the IFT space. So, to answer your question just say simply, no. We don’t anticipate a spin.
Joe Giordano :
I understand the business-to-business versus the business-to-consumer, but like within the consumer, the channels are pretty different. So, with pool versus like the in-home resi filtration, so can you talk to what the – how this changes that what you guys act internally or how can you – like what are you leveraging out of this?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean, starting with the point that we sell over $1 billion a year of branded pool products and we have a very active user in pool that references and comes to the Pentair.com website often, right? So, we have a really large despite there is 5 million installed pools with an active user Googling and certainly seeking more information about their products. That gives us the ability to bring traffic to Pentair.com and then make those consumers and more aware of the types of things we can do to also help their quality of water in their homes. From there, we expect to take those leads and move them to our independent dealer channels and solve those - needs of those consumers. And so, we are starting from a really good place and when I mention that our web traffic is up 60%. A lot of that increased web traffic is people looking for drinking water or in-home solutions. And then, with our Pelican direct-to-consumer and services model, we are expanding that to do things beyond just to solve free systems that they offer. And we have the ability over the next three or five years to really build what we think is the right services and consumer focus to model that we can give people the national awareness and the differentiation by zip code that I think people want.
Joe Giordano :
That’s helpful. And then, maybe last from me, what’s the embedded expectation for Ag in 2020? I assume that’s all going to be in Industrial, I mean, it has a pretty easy comp particularly in the beginning of the year. So, kind of what was the end – kind of percentage of sales or how big was that business in 2019? And what’s embedded in growth for the Industrial business there?
Mark Borin:
So, you want the Ag business?
John Stauch:
Yes, it’s another that we’ve talked about that a bunch this year, yes.
Mark Borin:
Yes, yes, we’re – the overall guide includes an assumption of Ag being around flattish. So, you are right. There should be easier comps overall, but we are not anticipating any big rebound and just in terms of size, that business is about kind of 15% of the IFT segment.
Joe Giordano :
Okay. Thanks guys.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Your line is open.
Mike Halloran :
Hey, morning gentlemen.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning, Mike.
Mike Halloran :
So, first, staying with the segmentation side, maybe just a more in-depth discussion on lessons learned. I know you obviously just addressed the – whether there was divestitures associated with a lot of the core work you did. Obviously, the investment dollars are – you've already mentioned are starting to swing towards the digital side because of some of the work you did. Anything else that you would point to that you are capitalizing or changing where you are allocating your capital early internally? Or where are the investment initiatives might spring up based on that work?
John Stauch:
Yes, just to thank the internal Pentair team, so may we did – as I mentioned in my script, 5,000 people in the United States wait in. Those are consumers of water as to how they engage and buy water and how they want to buy and engage water and we use that to reform where we think we want to go. As you could imagine the type of web capabilities or digital capabilities we need on B2B business is a more things related to awareness, content, some dealer portals and then also on the consumer side, we need to have the consumer engagement and the ability to work directly with the consumer and the dealer to satisfy that need. Also, when you think operationally, we got to get to next day shipments and same day shipments in our Consumer side of the business. We don’t need that same type of infrastructure capability on the IFT side. So, what we learned about how we can differentiate ourselves against competition in these spaces inform how we create the segmentation and then build the capability around the businesses to help each of the business to succeed. Mike, that’s what we really learned and those are lessons learned and I am very proud of how we’ve organized the organization. I am very optimistic and excited about what we can do with these two organizations.
Mike Halloran :
Makes sense. And then, just on the capital allocation side as we think about 2020, what’s the M&A environment look like and how are you thinking about kind of the acquisition opportunity versus the buyback opportunity as you sit here today?
John Stauch:
Yes, so, as we continue to generate cash and have opportunities, I like what we are doing organically and I think we are well positioned today and we have to opportunistically participate in the M&A at the right return levels. There has been some acquisitions that have been announced and kind of went beyond us here and I think we have to be disciplined because we have to, when we engage in acquisitions deliver a significant ROIC over some period of time. So, we are going continue to be disciplined and we have options and I think those options gives the ability to create the best shareowner value.
Mike Halloran :
Appreciate it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi. Your line is open.
Eitan Buchbinder:
Hi, this is Eitan Buchbinder on for Andy. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Eitan Buchbinder:
So, coming out of the third quarter, you had an expectation for an Aquatics core sales decline and ends up slightly positive. What happened during the progression in the fourth quarter that may have benefited this segment in your initial forecast? And are there any scheduled price increases that may have impacted sales?
John Stauch:
Sure. So just in terms of that looking at the sequential on why they did slightly better than forecast, really just continued back – getting back to what I said is a more normalized level. So, good solid demand in the quarter and really nothing unusual from an overall demand perspective.
Eitan Buchbinder:
Okay. And looking towards next year’s guide, core sales within Industrial & Flow Technologies, they are expected to be down 1 to up 1. With the understanding that the legacy Filtration segment is coming off of relatively easy comp albeit for part in the portfolio, could you maybe parse the expected performance of the different pieces?
John Stauch:
So, in Consumer Solutions, right, we guided sort of for the full year up 5% to 7%. I think portion of that is being driven by the pool business within Consumer Solutions. And then, the Filtration piece that’s in there is, maybe kind of the mid-single-digit, low mid-single-digit type of growth and the pool piece would be more of that kind of mid to high-single-digit.
Eitan Buchbinder:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Jim Lucas:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
I know this is not the primary reason for consolidating here to two segments. But typically, you do see some cost reductions come out of these kind of combinations. Are you guys expecting to see cost savings by consolidating down to two segments and if so, could you quantify that for us?
John Stauch:
I do think over three to five years, Nathan, without a doubt we are going to see functional efficiencies across these two segments and driving higher efficiencies to the businesses. It’s not the main intent of doing this. As a matter of fact, we are adding back resources and the differential capabilities into the businesses and segments based upon the needs we have. But over a three to five year period, I do think we will start to identify function-by-function, how we can differentiate ourselves in these segments and that will drive some value. But I can’t quantify right now, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. Productivity over the last couple of years has been a little up and down. Are you guys confident now that you're on a path to be able to more consistently deliver productivity quarter in, quarter out? Do you see any specific discrete headwinds this year or anything like that we should be aware of?
John Stauch:
But Mark mentioned the headwind. I think the reinstatement of variable compensation, which tends to be extremely low in a tough year like 2019, it is going to come back to a headwind as we head into 2020. That’s the only thing we see out there in the horizon. We have added about 2% of revenue over the last couple of years in the form of investments in the R&D, sales and marketing, and the development of people as we mentioned. And we continue to invest and I read for you some of those big advancements on the IoT side and the digital front. I do think now that’s going to stabilize as we go forward and that level of investment will continue. But we don’t see those sizable year-over-year headwinds that I think has been mitigating what has been real productivity in the businesses. And finally, growth. I mean, when you get back to growth and you get core volume growth, that goes a long way in factories to drive productivity. So I think the cost input sides have stabilized and I think our ability to invest is going to pay dividends and continue with an investment will no longer be a year-over-year challenge. And then, when we return to growth, we should see ourselves getting back to the productivity that you mentioned, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. So just on the investment side, you have reached a plateau there now. You are comfortable that you have the right spending level there. It's not too high, it's not too low. That's kind of what you anticipate going forward?
John Stauch:
I mean, it’s going to vary up and down a little bit, Nathan, but we probably have over the next three to five years some G&A opportunity and at the same time, we are going to continue to invest in more innovative products around R&D. So, a couple of the lines that are going to move from quarter-to-quarter or year-to-year. But overall, we don’t see a step change investment that’s required to grow our existing businesses.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks very much for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Nathan.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Saree Boroditsky :
Thank you, good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Saree Boroditsky :
Going back to the comments on Ag, last year, you saw some headwinds on the precision side from the late planting season. Could you just comment on what your expectations are for that side of the business?
Mark Borin:
Sure, as I was tracking earlier about sort of the expectation for Ag coming into 2020, thinking of it sort of being flattish. So it was down last year and really returning to flat. But not anticipating and nothing is embedded in guidance in terms of any significant recovery.
Saree Boroditsky :
Okay. And then, could you provide some color on what you saw geographically. I believe last quarter you talked about some moderating growth in Europe along with some continued growth in China. Did these trends continue in the quarter and any expectations for next year?
John Stauch:
Yes, very similar really from the commentary I would had last quarter in terms of geographic split. So, some softness in Europe in certain product lines. We continued to see good momentum in China and then, the remainder of the puts and takes coming out of North America.
Saree Boroditsky :
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my call.
John Stauch:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Graham:
And good luck to you, Mark.
Mark Borin:
Thanks, Scott.
Scott Graham:
So, two questions for you, really one of the things you were talking about last year was that you had a little bit excess inventory in the channels in the other business – in the non-pool businesses. I guess, my first question would be, how are you feeling about those? And then, secondly, I am hoping you can unpack the Filtration margin decline in the quarter by size of issue and the impacts that the carryover effects of the same into the first half.
John Stauch:
Yes, so let me take the margin impact in Filtration and I’ll hand the rest over to Mark. I mean, what we are doing in Pentair Water Solutions is adding what’s called a global retail center. We think of it as a salesperson in a vehicle that helps the consumer be able to take a look at the product that we are trying to sell and see that product in action in the actual vehicle itself. We are accelerating the rate of investment of putting those vehicles and those people on the road and training those new sales organizations, right. So, think of that investment being significantly ahead of the revenue that they generate. And right now, we are targeting somewhere around three quarters of $1 million a year in revenue from a vehicle that’s been in place for 12 months or greater. And so it takes a while to ramp up to that level and to have that working. So that is the primary investment that’s continuing in Filtration and we’ll probably continue for some period of time as we believe that we are doing the right things to drive long-term value, but there is a push of cost ahead of that growth. Mark, can you take the second please?
Mark Borin:
Sure, and just to go back to sort of the inventory question. So, it’s a good point. We talk about pool or inventory both in the pool and then some of the other business as it relates to some of the buy ahead that happened in the back half of 2018. So, a couple of things that introduces and factors into our guidance for 2020, but it also helps explain the Q4 2019 performance as on a year-over-year comp basis, we’ve got the tougher comps in 2018 that are tied to that buy ahead that was related to the price increase.
Scott Graham:
So, I am translating that to mean you are okay with the inventories in the channels as we enter 2020 in those businesses?
Mark Borin:
That’s correct. That’s correct. So, my comment on sort of normalized inventory levels would be applied really across all of the businesses.
Scott Graham:
Thank you. And John, if I could just revisit your response, you talked about the investments, is that the only item that drove down the margin? Or were there other factors as well in Filtration?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean, Filtration, on a historical basis, there is a lot of different pieces to that business is that we talked about with different margin profiles. So, some of that is just a mix in the fourth quarter related to other quarters as we just look at the makeup of the product sales in a quarter.
Scott Graham:
That’s great. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair. Your line is open.
Joseph Aiken :
Good morning. This is Joe Aiken on for Brian today. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about what you are seeing in some of your end-markets right now. Are you seeing more stability across some of those end-markets right now? And particularly on the Industrial side, are you seeing demand start to level off there?
John Stauch:
Well, two different questions. So let me try to address. I think when we look at the linearity of our revenue and you take a look at moving throughout a year from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 to Q4, we have seen significant stability in most of – all of our product categories. Where we are exposing residential commercial, we still see resilience and we still see a strong consumer sentiment driving incremental demand. In Industrial, yes, I mean, things had gotten a little slower globally. We don’t have a lot of Industrial exposure, but the product lines we have, have shown basically more of a flattening of the quarter-to-quarter growth trajectory.
Joseph Aiken :
Okay. Thanks. And then, just on the non-pool residential business, I know you mentioned some normalized inventory levels, what are your expectations in terms of revenue growth for that business in 2020?
Mark Borin:
That would really be tied to kind of my comment on the Filtration business. So, sort of the low mid-single-digit growth rate.
Joseph Aiken :
Okay. Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning. This is Trish [Ph] on for Julian. Just a quick one on the Consumer Solutions segment, kind of what percentage of sales go through ecommerce at this point? And I don’t know if you have any target for that and then just any significant difference in margins there between ecommerce and other distributions?
John Stauch:
Yes, I don’t have a target for that, primarily I would look at – what we are trying to do is, consumer-enabled which is different than B2C, right? So, we are trying to gauge the consumer and make the consumer aware of all the different options available to them. And then we are trying to bring it through a professional channel either in the event of us providing those services or our affiliated partners bringing that through their channel. Our direct-to-consumer business today is just Pelican and it’s what they did before. I think of that is $20 million to $30 million maybe, that gives us a little bit in the form of a product the rest of it’s all sold to services.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Great. That’s helpful. And then just, maybe any early feedback on the Pentair home App? I know it’s launched last quarter, but anything there?
John Stauch:
Yes, well, we did a soft launch and we'll be continuing to take the consumer feedback and evolve it. But we are excited. We obviously are not trying to be the integrated home platform. There is other companies who will lead in that area, but we want to tie into those platforms. And then, we want to have a whole suite of products and capability that would help you make the consumer more aware of their water needs. Where I am most excited by though is on the dealer side, right? And as we provide a connectability of that App and allow the consumer to get their dealers scheduled or request the service in an most efficient way and then also follow-up on the consumer experience, that’s what we are really excited about with that application launch.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brett Linzey with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Brett Linzey :
Hey, good morning all.
Mark Borin:
Morning.
Brett Linzey :
Hey, just I want to come back to the 2020 guidance specific around just margin. So you said core incrementals of 30 to 40 for the total company. What are you expecting for margin performance by segment? Do you think both are up year-over-year? And then, any color on restructuring what you are targeting for this year?
John Stauch:
Yes to margin expansion in both segments. And right now, we are not targeting or forecasting any major restructuring or restructure.
Brett Linzey :
Okay. And then, it looks like you are guiding a 2% divestiture in Consumer Solutions. It looks like it takes place later in the year, well maybe just some color there strategic rationale what’s being sold?
Mark Borin:
Sure, and just to clarify, so there is kind of a net going on in Q1. So there is the acquisition timing of Aquion and Pelican from 2018 that lapses and coming into this quarter. So that’s about $12 million and then, the rest of it is the sale of the agriculture business that we had announced previously. So that sale has been ongoing and so, the guide reflects the assumption that that business has been divested in 2020.
Brett Linzey :
Okay. Great. I’ll pass it along. Thanks.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us today. Despite the challenging start to 2019, we made great progress with respect to our vision to build a high performance growth culture. We believe we have significant opportunities ahead of us and with our customer-centric structure and shared services support platform, we are ready to further advance the Pentair strategy more efficiently and with a greater sense of urgency. I speak for the full Pentair team when I say we are excited about our future, optimistic about 2020 and motivated to create value for all key stakeholders in the near and longer-term. Thank you for your continued interest. Mariama, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thanking for standing by. And welcome to the Q3 2019 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jim Lucas. Thank you. He may begin.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Dorothy. And welcome to Pentair's third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2019 performance as well as our fourth quarter and full year 2019 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions-and-answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4 titled, executive summary. We are pleased to deliver solid third quarter performance. In particular, our return to segment income growth and ROS expansion. And building on our performance from the second quarter. We are maintaining our full year EPS guidance. We've seen price cost stabilized and we are encouraged to see further signs of top line stabilization in our important aquatics business. We continue to invest in our two key strategic growth priorities. Advancing pool growth and accelerating residential and commercial water treatment. These investments are centered on building out a consumer experience inclusive of our brand, channel, innovative products and services. We continue to believe we are well positioned to return the core sales and income growth in 2020. And I'll talk little more later in the call about our optimism about long-term strategy an prospects. I'll now turn the call over to Mark to discuss our third quarter results and updated full year outlook. Mark?
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled Q3'19 Pentair performance. For the third quarter, overall sales increased slightly and we saw core sales declined 2%. Segment income grew 1% and adjusted EPS increased 7%. We'll provide more color on individual segment performance shortly. Below the line we saw an adjusted tax rate of 15%, net interest, other expenses of $7.7 million and our average shares in the quarter were $168.6 million. The tax rate in the quarter reflects our long-term strategy spread across a lower income base in 2019 resulting in an expected full year adjusted tax rate of 17%. Finally, free cash flow was just over $150 million and in line with normal seasonal patterns. We were pleased to see segment income grow and ROS expand despite the softer top line and we believe this is a reflection of price cost stabilizing following the headwinds of significant inflation we discussed in prior quarters. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q3'19 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the third quarter performance of our three segments. As expected our Aquatic segment experienced a 5% core sales decline against an extremely tough comparison. Following rather abnormal weather during the first half of the year, it appeared that weather in much of the country was more normal during the quarter and a result was an improved sell-through. Aquatic saw segment income declined 9% and ROS contracted 60 basis points but still came in north of 25%. As we have repeated throughout the year, we remained focused on exiting 2019 with channel inventories more in line with historical levels. Filtration Solutions reported core sales growth of 4% with solid contribution across all business lines but particularly within the smaller food and beverage business as we shipped out some of our improved backlog in both beer and sustainable gas. The integration of both Aquion and Pelican remain on track and both businesses performed in line with our expectations. Segment income grew 17% for Filtration and ROS expanded 50 basis points to 16.5%. In Flow Technologies, core sales declined 5% during the quarter. We continue to see strong headwinds in our Ag business both OEM and after market. Despite the soft top line performance, segment income grew 4% and ROS expanded 170 basis points to 17.1%. As a reminder, Flow Technologies was hit hardest by tariffs and broader inflation in the segment half of 2018 and a comparison in the quarter was its easiest of the year. While we continue to see mix results across the three segments, we are most encouraged by size of stabilization and price cost as well as only one more quarter of tough top line comparisons for our products. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen and third quarter delivered another seasonally strong quarter of free cash flow. During the third quarter we had one bond matured and we have another maturing in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, we successfully issued a 10 year note during the second quarter. Between our healthy free cash flow and improved leverage ratios, our balance sheet remains well positioned to fund both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q4'19 Pentair Outlook. For the fourth quarter, we anticipate core sales to be roughly flat. We expect Aquatic Systems to be down approximately 1% to 3% as we continue to focus on making sure channel inventories return to more normalized levels by the end of the year. We expect core sales growth in both Filtration Solutions and Flow Technologies to be essentially flat. We anticipate segment income to be up approximately 6% to 8% as we expect price cost to further stabilized and we continue to drive productivity. We expected adjusted EPS to be in a range of $0.64 to $0.66 per share. Below the line we expect corporate expense to be approximately $14 million to $15 million. We expect our fourth quarter adjusted tax rate to be around 17%. WE expect net interest and other expense of roughly $8 million and shares to be approximately 169 million. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Full Year 2019 Pentair Outlook. For the full year, we expect core sales to be down roughly 1%. We expect total sales to be essentially flat with roughly 2% contribution from our two acquisitions offset by 1% headwinds from FX. We anticipate segment income to be down around 3%. We continue to expect our full year adjusted EPS to be approximately $2.35 per share. Other items embedded in our guidance include expected corporate expense of $60 million to $63 million and adjusted tax rate of 17%, net interest other expense of $35 million and an average share count for the year of roughly 170 million shares. While there are undoubtedly many moving pieces to our 2019 pack to expected flat EPS, we continue to be encouraged by signs top line stabilization and further price cost improvement. We are encouraged by the performance our businesses are delivering in light of the top line challenges faced this year. I would now like to turn the call back to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to Slide 10, labeled Executing a Consistent Strategy. We continue to be focused on driving our long-term strategy and we believe there is a lot of evidence at the focused investment we are making is the right investments and driving results. Most people would agree that global water quality is a challenge. While many companies are participating in offering to solve this global issue, we've chosen to focus primarily on the residential and commercial markets. There is little argument that consumers can benefit from taking ownership of their water experience. They can do it to their own taste and with solutions that meet their individual needs and preferences. And Pentair has a variety of solutions to help consumers treat, move and enjoy water. In fact, Pentair is one of the few total solution providers to residential customers. Also, when we aligned on our strategy nearly two years ago, it started with our leading Aquatic franchise. With over 5 million pools installed in the US, and over half of them being over decade old, there is large and installed base to serve. We've built the strong business focus on new product development and strong dealer loyalty. The introduction of the Variable Speed Pump nearly a decade ago created awareness around energy savings and the results has compounded with other product categories from LED lightly to hybrid heaters. We believe the continued adoption of automation which is small today, roughly 275,000 pools versus an opportunity north of 2.5 million pools in the US, creates a new avenue of growth where we have leading position. Within residential Filtration market, the acquisition of Aquion and Pelican earlier this year moved us being leading component suppliers to now being a provider of systems and solutions. We've learned quite a lot in our short time owning both of these businesses, and we believe there are many paths to create value as we help consumers solve their water challenges in their homes. On the commercial side of the business, we've historically enjoyed a strong position in food service area. Increasingly, we are focusing on total water management with customers and we believe this presents an opportunity, better positions us with many our existing and potential customers. Within the commercial office water space, customers are increasingly looking at opportunities to decrease the use of plastic bottles. And we've a number of technologies today that can serve this space. And we believe there are opportunities to further expand in this area. Outside of the residential and commercial verticals, we've a number of technologies we've developed around nano and ultra filtration. As we develop new IoT products, we see even more opportunities to solve customer challenges. For instance, within the beer industry, we've approximately 150 plants globally that use our digital BMS system, enable our customers to become more sustainable, lower cost, move from static to dynamic live reporting and improved overall operating performance. We've transition this technology into the sustainable gas industry and we believe there are opportunities to expand this technology to other parts of our portfolio over time. We also continue to believe there are multiple paths to drive consistent, sustainable growth especially in our core residential and commercial businesses. And our recent acquisition allowed us to move closer to the consumer. And while we have built stronger aquatic business, we believe that by better focusing on the consumer not only the dealer, it will enable us to maintain an already healthy growth rate in one of our best businesses. We believe that we have the right portfolio, the right strategy, the right culture and the right technologies to further our positions as a leading water treatment company. With the strong core to build from and healthy balance sheet to support both our organic and inorganic opportunities, we look forward to demonstrating our strategy to our shareholders in Q4, and in 2020 and beyond. I would now like to turn the call over to Dorothy for Q&A, after which I will have a few closing remarks. Dorothy, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.
SteveTusa:
Hi guys, good morning. Hey, can you just breakdown a little more like what’s going on in the Flow business? The revenues were way off versus our model, but the profits kind of held in. and I know this dispersion in the margin profile of some of those businesses, so and that was one. I think, in the first quarter that was tougher to kind of figure out. What’s going on in that segment? I think the other two are pretty straight forward. What’s going on in this segment?
JohnStauch:
Yes, Steve, let me speak to the revenue miss and I’ll let Mark to give the details. But during the end of Q2, we saw a little both positive in some of the Ag orders. And right out of the gate in Q3, we just saw that Ag did not recover at all, so we had anticipated a little more recovery sequentially in Q3. And it just slide out, didn’t happen. So now we’ve adjusted heading into Q4 next year the fact that we don’t see Ag recovering at all. And I think the lot of the global data would suggest that, and we’d probably figured it out right now. But that was a little bit of a bounce in Q3 that we had expected that didn’t happen.
SteveTusa:
How big is Ag? It isn’t that relatively profitable? Shouldn’t that had a -- shouldn't that have had a kind of more negative impact on the margin like? What am I missing on that front?
MarkBorin:
Yes, Steve it’s Mark, and it’s a great question. What we saw positive signs here were two things really, you’ll see price cost getting better. As I said in my prepared comments, Flow was hit hardest by the inflation pressure so we see price cost turning positive in Q3. And then also productivity, we touched on that in Q2 that, that although we weren’t, we didn’t see the productivity reading out in Q2 we saw signs that gave us a high degree of confidence that we would start to see that in Q3 and that’s really what happened. So, you’re right that, being down in Ag from a mix perspective would push margins down and income down but, that was --we were benefited by better productivity and improved price cost. And Steve--
SteveTusa:
And how big is Ag, for you guys?
MarkBorin:
Ag would be somewhere in the $200 million range.
JohnStauch:
Per year.
SteveTusa:
Okay, and then one last one just on the Aquatics, pool made some pretty positive comments that their channel is clear. Can you kind of validate that comment or are there other considerations and thinking about next year a little bit, I would think you guys have some easy comps here coming up in the first half of ’20 or is there something else that we should keep in mind when thinking about kind of the trajectory in the next year?
JohnStauch:
Yes Steve, so I think you’re right. I mean we do track a lot of our largest customer’s earnings calls and we agree that inventory is definitely getting more normalized here. And our goal is in between now and the end of the year and make sure that it gets into that normalized pattern. I do think though that, the pricing this year is relatively more normal which we’ll not suggest that any of the channel would reach to do the buy heads that we saw last year with a much more elevated pricing levels so, Mark, I don’t know if you want to add anything more?
MarkBorin:
Yes. I agree, I mean, we’ve said we continue to believe that by the end of the year, we’ll exit with normal levels and we think of 2020 more in line with historical normal seasonal stabilized perspective.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
NathanJones:
Good morning, everyone. Just maybe thinking a little bit about where the returns organic growth comes from in 2020. I think we have probably being in the pool business thinking kind of understand why that should return to growth. But I mean look if I'm having a look at the last couple of quarter's results; organic sales have been down with positive impacts from price. This quarter, you're down to with 3 points to price, and volume down 5. Outside of the pool business with -- what I would imagine are moderating price tailwinds and some negative volume trends here, where would you expect the growth to come from in 2020 outside of pool?
JohnStauch:
Well. I mean it’s good question, and I thank you for asking. But I mean, I think first of all, we beyond pool, we also had some channel inventory in both Filtration and Flow. That was built up for some of the same buy ahead patterns that happened in last year's Q3 and Q4. So this year's Q3 and Q4 have those difficult comparisons and then Q1 and Q2 of next year have much easier comparisons across Filtration, Flow and Aquatics.
NickStokes:
Okay. So some tough comp issues this year for the same reasons is pool latest ones next year. That makes sense. Can you maybe talk a little bit more about some of these? You talked about focused investments being the right investments and driving results. Maybe talk a little bit more about where those investments and what kind of results you're seeing them drive? And maybe specifically a little bit more about building out the channel for the commercial and residential filtration.
JohnStauch:
Yes, so we have three specific growth priorities in both pool and residential and commercial filtration. It’s really about having, I’ll start with commercial first, and it’s about having the best commercial systems and capabilities. And we’re really excited about the technology that we’re building to sell at commercial office water opportunities, as you know, people are seeking carbonated water and they’re also seeking flavored carbonated water. So really excited about the investments we made on technology side, while we’re more than a year away from launching that product that our product is really better solution that we think that the market will benefit from. So excited there. We are also through both the acquisitions and also internally within Pentair; we’re having the best residential systems. Smarter, more innovative valves technology, smarter water softener systems technology, I am hooking those to automation and then having the services piece to the Pelican acquisition to complete that last mile. And we’re really excited about the progress of that in home sales capability, and the build out of what we call our mobile resource centers which are our brands that we go out and sell with. So huge progress there. On the pool side, we continue to see technology advancement, new technologies around filtration, new technologies around automation, so we’re excited that that penetration rate will show up. When you look at the sell-through rates of pool in both Q2 and Q3, they’re back to the high single-digits again. So once we get through this inventory channel issue and the pool business normalizes, I think we’re very positive that we’ll see that return to growth next year.
NathanJones:
On the commercial water filtration product, the flavored and bubbly water, have you guys done enough work to kind of talk about what you think the size of that opportunity is for you?
JohnStauch:
I think it’s really fragmented. I think the overall momentum is there. I think what we wanted to do is make sure that we have the systems that can give you chilled, heated, sparkling and as you know our other peer filtration is a big part of that overall component. So we want to be talked about in the space, and we want to make sure we have the right systems that can solve any solution, that basically a commercial customer has.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen.
JoeGiordano:
Hey guys, good morning. John, I just wanted to clarify something you said earlier on Steve’s question regarding Ag, Flow. I think you mentioned that there was some headwinds kind of exiting Q2 about Ag, that didn’t materialize in the quarter. I was under the impression that once Ag that when we have that bad weather in the first half that like any recovery in Ag was taken out of guidance. So I'm just a little confused about, can you kind of square that for me? +
JohnStauch:
Yes, there are two forms of Ag. We have a precision Ag spray business and that we did address earlier and that is a very-very high margin offering. The other part of Ag is more of the pivot Ag spray in the irrigation side of the business, that’s specifically what I was referring to.
JoeGiordano:
Okay, so this is the irrigation not the precision, okay cool. Okay, can you talk about maybe some of the impacts you’re having with some of just the internal cost that you shared? Because clearly, I mean, particularly in Flow, I mean, you’re seeing the margins come through on weak number on a weak growth number, so may be you talk about some at a high level maybe there’s a couple of examples you can kind of take us through or sort of some things that are being done differently today than maybe a year ago, across the enterprise maybe?
JohnStauch:
Yes, sure. One of the things we talk a lot about is we separated with optimization and really looking at where did we have complexity and how can we get after complexity reduction and into the Flow Technology segment was certainly one of those businesses where we saw high degree of that skew rationalization things, that inherently drives up cost and drive down margins. And the team really got after that in as we exited 2017 and throughout 2018, and so we started to see those activities and actions pay off here in 2019. And also, we’ve also talked about some of the factories where we had some challenges. We’ve been investing in automation and other technology to replace and improve some of the older equipment and machinery that’s used in some of those factories that’s also starting to readout early stages. So there’s more of that to comments, we think about 2020 but we’re again seeing favorable signs and encouraged by what we’re seeing.
JoeGiordano:
And one last for me on, if we look and it’s too early to talk 2020, but if we just think about the situation where there is inventory cleaned up through your partners, and we can start ramping a little bit. When I think about free cash flow, there’s nice performance here in the quarter. Is that going to be, how much of the headwind do you see that being into ’20 as things kind of ramp up and start producing at higher rates?
JohnStauch:
I think we still have opportunity to really focus on cash flow and we continue to view cash flow targeting at approximating adjusted net income, so we wouldn’t change that point of view even though as we grow to your point, there maybe some working capital type things that we need to invest. But there are opportunities in other places that we would manage and balance out to have that long -term target still maintained.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird.
MikeHalloran:
Hey, good morning everyone. So a couple ones first, just on capital usage here, any thoughts to bring back being more aggressive on the buyback side again? And then secondarily related to that, how’s the M&A pipeline look? What's the willingness, ability to bring something in and how are the evaluations looking out there?
JohnStauch:
Yes, I mean I think clearly we’re focusing on execution right now Mike and part of that was making sure that we’re delivering on our commitments, Q2, Q3, and Q4 so that’s our first focus area. I think there are the growing opportunities to invest in the platforms that I mentioned. And we’re continuing to look at those tuck-in acquisitions I would say that feed more what we’ve done already. But you can never time those. We have no idea where they’re going, and we just want to make sure that we’re protecting the balance sheet heading into next year and giving ourselves flexibility to do what we think is going to drive most amount of value.
MikeHalloran:
The pipeline on that side, John?
JohnStauch:
Good.
MikeHalloran:
All right, and then just some thoughts on the price cost side, you talked --it seemed like you’re implying the price cost side should be a little bit more favorable moving forward from here. Maybe talk about puts and takes on the pricing side? Is that kind of flattened out a little bit relatively to the commodity side? And how you’re thinking about that moving into next year?
JohnStauch:
Yes, so maybe the way to think about it is, we had significant price cost headwinds as we talked about coming out of last year and into the beginning of this year. Now what I referenced in Q3 in particular was favorability because we’ve got favorable price and we have inflation moderating. As you move forward that favorable year-over-year price will start to be a little bit more than normal, at a more normalized level versus the unusually high price increases that we had in 2018 that spilled over into 2019. So, I don't -- it's more of a stabilization story rather than a benefit. It’s just mitigation of what had been a pretty significant headwind. And on the inflation side, one thing to always kind of keep in mind is inflation is not just the material or commodity inflation, but we certainly also have labor inflation and we don’t see that going away or moderating. So that will continue to be part of how we think about what our 2020 will look like.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
JeffHammond:
Hey, good morning guys. Just on, can you just talk about what is in forming the lower growth rate in filtration and then just as you look forward here a lot about our macro-slowing and just where and just where are you seeing some signs of slowing in your business outside of that Ag space?
MarkBorin:
Sure. As we-- as I talked about in Q3, we saw pretty, pretty improved performance in the food and beverage part of the filtration business. That moderates a little bit in Q4, so that's part of the story. We do see continued stabilization and incremental improvement on the important residential and commercial side. Both the systems and components businesses, where those -- the investments in those acquisitions took place. So overall, just more of a moderated view given their performance in Q3, and then would expect to kind of as we think about moving into 2020. A similar level of performance and starting to see some of the investments that John talked about reading out and improve core sales growth.
JeffHammond:
Okay, and then just on pool. What are you assuming and what are customers telling you about kind of the normal early buy situation? And then just, if we look into 2020, certainly you've got some easy comps and typically this business grows mid-to-high single digits. Should we think of 2020 is kind of an easy comp and you can get back to those levels or above? Thanks.
MarkBorin:
So on the first question and from an early buy perspective, we're seeing kind of a consistent early buy pattern, of last year was a little bit unusual because of the blend of the impact of the price increase. But what we're seeing this year is more in line with kind of the historical trends. In terms of next year, as we said, we're exiting Q4, you see that the Q4 guide is what I would think of as back to a little bit more level of normalization improved income performance, flattening of the top line, which had been decreasing, and as we think about 2020, we're just going really focus on getting back to what we believe would be performance in line with our long term objectives.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
DeaneDray:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Hey, very well, thank you. How about, can we put a little finer point on the working down the excess channel inventory and pool? If we had been thinking it was around a $60 million excess it just based on commentary about expected 4Q normalizing. How much should we think about that $60 million haven't been worked up so far?
MarkBorin:
So as we talked, and we worked down some of that inventory in line with sort of our expectations and we continue to see that coming down further in Q4 and exiting the year at levels that are in line with more historical seasonal patterns.
DeaneDray:
Okay, and then on pool, John, you talk about some of the new product development in filtration and pool and automation are just to set expectations, might you have some new automation offerings for the 2020 season?
JohnStauch:
Yes, we do already. And I think we're learning how to sell it better. We believe everybody can benefit from that automation capability. It's a different type of sale though. And we have that we believe the right products that can really help the user along, and we have to tweak our ability to sell technology. It's not like selling a product. It's more like selling a service or capability. And so we learned a lot this year. And I think we're encouraged by the progress we're making in Q3 and Q4. And I think those products can really accelerate as they head into next year.
DeaneDray:
When you say sell a service, is that something that Pentair would benefit from on a recurring basis or is that a pool dealer that would be part of their revenue stream?
MarkBorin:
Well, clearly the vision would be that everybody would benefit, right? And that at the end of the day, most people buy technology on more rented basis because they believe whatever they have is going to be obsolete. We'd have to line the channel that way, Deane but ultimately, we think that's going to be the right answer. We're launching in this quarter, the new Pentair Home App, which basically is a broad umbrella that takes all of the suite of products that Pentair offers and allows you to be connected into that Home App. And we're hopeful that as the consumer sees more and more things that are available to either connecting with Alexa or Google Home or Apple or whatever your devices that you start to see the benefits of, some of the monitoring your water quality, and then starting to buy some of the products and services that would attach to that.
DeaneDray:
That's good to hear. And just last one for me when you talk about the commercial office water opportunity, are you thinking and still we agree that it's still very fragmented. Are you thinking of a rental opportunity or would this be equipment sales or both?
MarkBorin:
Today, it's about having the right systems and likely out selling them, Deane, as you know the market does rent them. The end solution providers do rent units. Don't know yet if that's the space that we want to be in. But we were -- we introduced carbonated water some 8 to 10 years ago. We were probably early in the market. We have all the technology and we deliver that for food service and so how do we bring that into a commercial office environment in a productive way, if that's what people want. As you guys know, there's a lot of fickle drinkers. The first one is get tea and coffee. Most all tea and coffee needs to be filtered, so you don't scale the units or cause damage to those units. And our filtration plays a big part in that. And if we expand that filtration into other forms of water, we think there's a huge opportunity for Pentair. And look, this is forward thinking, we believe we have the technology where it's probably not a 2020 launch, it's probably somewhere in 2021.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
JoshPokrzywinski:
Good morning, guys. Quick question on price cost, I guess, with working down channel inventory and kind of generalized market weakness, some of that related weather earlier in the year. I would imagine it's harder to get price certainly, probably more room for incentives than to try to raise prices in the channel. Is that something we should expect to start expanding more rapidly from this point now that we've kind of cleared the season, cleared the channel overhang from an inventory perspective?
JohnStauch:
I think the best way to think about it is, as I said before, it's just more of a normalized level of price, as you know a big chunk of the price that we see overall comes from the pool business that they had unusually high price last year in response to inflation. This year, they had a price increase that would have gone into effect in September, which is the normal timeframe that those price increases go into place. And I call that a more in a more normal historical level and something similar in the other businesses. So we are not seeing --we didn't see any unusual reaction to price this year as a result of channel inventories and but we do see just going to a more normalized level given that last year's higher price was really driven by that incremental inflation.
JoshPokrzywinski:
Got it. And then I guess as it pertains to the aquatic season, just as we kind of round it down there in the third quarter, obviously you had a slow start with weather and particularly in some of the warmer regions that would have been bigger contributors in the first quarter. Did any of that get made up later in the year just with the season, maybe stretching out longer, not even weather related, but just thinking of folks are always going to be busy kind of May through August, but maybe they do an extra job in September. Is that something that you guys noticed and maybe sets up, accomplish and think about and sell through next year?
MarkBorin:
Yes, I think some of it will. I don't think first of all, the comp is meaningful enough. But yes, those pool builders will continue to work as long as they can in those areas. And they'll fill in jobs in the slower season that they would have otherwise not done. But they will also probably likely celebrate the holidays that exists in Q4. And so you're not going to see that same level of build that you tend to see in the more summer seasons.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.
SareeBoroditsky:
Good morning. Could you provide some color on what you saw geographically? I believe last quarter you talked about Europe and China being positive. Did that continue? And any expectations as we look forward towards the end of the year?
JohnStauch:
Sure, that -- it did continue. So we had commented earlier in the year that we saw some weakness in Europe, particularly on the filtration side, as we move through the year in Q2, and then again in Q3, and we really see to the balance of the year, we saw improvement there. So Europe now has -- is back to moderating growth and China as well is returned to a reasonably good growth level.
SareeBoroditsky:
And then just a more longer term question on aquatic. How should we think about the impact from the Variable Speed Pump Legislation that goes into effect into 2021?
JohnStauch:
We believe in 2021 it should help our overall sales. Variable Speed Pumps for us today are probably just over half of our total pumps sold. They do sell at a higher sell through value. So we do believe as the transition happens. Those of us who've been through these transitions before always have to go question, one of those dates going to really happen and will there be slippage and also, how does the inventory work its way through. And so we're not putting anything into 2020, obviously, and, we'll see if there's a relative bump in 2021, but overall should be positive to our business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
JulianMitchell:
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just following up on that geographic point, you had emphasized some of the weakness in Ag. We've talked a lot already about residential trends in the US in the past few months. Just wondered if you could give any detail around what you've seen in some of the more commercial or industrial markets in the US? If there's been any particular shift in demand from month-to-month since July?
JohnStauch:
Nothing significant from a month-to-month perspective, our -- 80% of our businesses overall is driven by the residential and commercial end markets and as we move through the balance of the year, we've talked about sort of the inventory impact, but beyond that the underlying demand has remained positive and we continue to see that kind of reading out through the balance of the year.
JulianMitchell:
Thanks. And then on your sort of segment Income Bridge I guess on slide 5, when we're thinking about the productivity portion of that in aggregate, it looks like it's probably a maybe a $20 million tailwind or something for the year as a whole. If you could just sort of clarify that sounds about right and then when thinking about next year, do we think about some of those measures that you've accelerated around productivity pushing that number up or is that a pretty good run rate for the current demand environment?
MarkBorin:
Yes, I think what you're seeing in Q3 is more in line with the level that we would anticipate. And I think to remember kind of what makes that up. There are multiple elements. So there's material productivity which is we're working on trying to mitigate some of the inflation headwinds. There's operating costs productivity that would think about that as you're looking at opportunities to reduce G&A costs. And then there's factory productivity, but then what's offsets that is also the investments we're making in the growth areas around R&D and selling, marketing investments and technology and things like that. So as we think about this year and into next year, we will continue to look for increasing levels of productivity but utilizing some of that to continue to invest in the areas where we see the biggest growth opportunities.
JulianMitchell:
Thanks very much. And one last quick one for me. Looking at the filtration operating performance, you had pretty healthy sales growth there in Q3. The incremental margin was around 20% or so. Is that a reasonable sort of placeholder for that business with its current mix or do you see anything sort of one time within that figure?
MarkBorin:
I wouldn't call it one time but with this, this is where we do have the residential systems and also the consumer services and we are significantly investing in those businesses, right. So we're very encouraged by the top line growth we have and we continue to add back digital marketing, advertising, branding and R&D spend to really accelerate the long-term growth there. So I think this is a more normalized pattern, as we head into 2020 is benefiting from the growth and then reinvesting a portion of that income back into fuel more growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Walter Liptak with Seaport Global.
WalterLiptak:
Hi. Thanks, good morning. I want to ask a geographic question, and understand the comments about the EU filtration kind of moving up from moderating growth in China doing okay, now. I wonder if we could just get a little bit more detail about why that as we look at macro numbers, Europe continues to get worse. China, the GDP numbers continue to weaken. What's going on with your sectors or the market share that's helping those regions?
JohnStauch:
Yes, so let me talk about China, first. In our China business, we said before in China, Southeast Asia overall is residential and commercial filtration primarily. And think about that being just north of 100 and some million dollars on an annual basis. So the growth rates we're talking about are really about starting from a relatively low base in a very enormous market in which we have a dedicated China team and we have a dedicated factory dedicated R&D lab. And we really invested a lot of new product growth and marketing. So, we're winning in a space that may or may not overall be growing, but we have a lot of runway left in that area. In Europe, Mark gave the overall numbers and that is appropriate. Within those overall numbers, those things that are doing well in Europe, and there's things that aren't doing so well in Europe. So as we look at you know, some of the global industrial product lines, we definitely saw slow downs. And when you take a look at some of the more installed base, residential and commercial aftermarket businesses they're doing okay. Than no way would we call a robust market environment.
WalterLiptak:
Okay. Can you help us with the size of the EU industrial business?
MarkBorin:
Yes, I think it's roughly $100 million.
WalterLiptak:
$100 million total for the year.
MarkBorin:
For the year, right. Not in a quarter.
WalterLiptak:
Okay, great. And then just switch gears over to the R&D, hearing about the investments in 2020, or is it similar levels of R&D, but more focused around some of these growth opportunities, or should we expect some kind of a step up in R&D spends?
JohnStauch:
Yes, I think you're going to expect a step up. I've said many times that we have the ability to invest a lot more in R&D. And we'll feel better about that investment when we feel marketing has done the work to produce the roadmap of where our R&D will be best utilized. And we're really excited about our automation platforms and we have a global innovation center around automation, one Pentair solution that would work across the enterprise, really excited about that roadmap. And then around our treatment, and water treatment Innovation Center, really excited about the nano and ultra filtration technologies out of the CPT acquisition our X flow business, and expanding those into both residential and commercial, very excited. And then as I mentioned earlier building systems capability that takes that technology and gives the overall solution. Those are the double downs for me and the team, and I'm going to accelerate that investment in 2020 and probably 2021. And we're encouraged and excited by the products of the other end of that investment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
BrianLee:
Hey, guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just first one on price going back to that topic to clarify a bit. I know 2019 was a bit of normal with the three points here and I know it's early for 2020. But do you think it's reasonable to assume we just settle back to somewhere around the point in price for next year, like we've seen in past years, or was the pricing this year late enough in the year where there's still some spillover into the early part of next year?
JohnStauch:
Yes. I think about it a slightly higher than that, 1% that we've seen, so prior to 2018 for the few years prior to that, it been right around 1%. But that was I call that like historically low, so something in the 2% range is probably a little bit more in line with what would be historically normal. With a rounded range on that 50 basis points. Okay. I mean, I think it's too early to say. The businesses that went out in September as Mark said, I mean, we were out in that range that Mark said and we saw those pricing stick, and we’re generally well received by the overall customers, and there was a more normal, and then we'll see how the others do.
BrianLee:
Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just a second question going back to Flow for a second. I know you, you kind of walk back to core growth outlook for that segment through the year and you sort of did the opposite last year and walking it up through the years. So how do you de-risk the view here for 4Q just given how lumpy it's been all year, and then as you think about 2020, is this a segment you'd expect to grow year-on-year along with the overall business? Thanks.
MarkBorin:
I can't call it de-risk. I can just tell you that it represents the last multiple quarter trends, it doesn't produce any incremental upside sequentially from things growing off of how they did the previous quarter, and then there is some year-over-year benefit as you look at Q1 and Q2 in this business next year. And then we'll see how confident we are when we come up with the guide of being able to drive organic growth in Q3 and Q4 of next year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey with Vertical Research Partners.
BrettLinzey:
Hi, good morning, guys. Hey, I just wanted to come back to Aquatics. You talked about some of the technology and growth priorities you have there and pool. As we think about those incremental costs and price moderating, but also some relief on ROS and other spending. What's the right incremental margin range we should be thinking about next year as you maybe see a more normal top line?
JohnStauch:
This business has a fairly sizable drop through. And because it's sales wise material and a really efficient manufacturing process. So good drop through. I'm not going to give you an answer because this is a huge value contributor to Pentair. I want to invest in this. And I think we have some really exciting technologies in the pipeline here as well. And we'd like to put some investment back into sales channel. Primarily around the aftermarket side, I think we do a really nice job with our dealer channel covering both new pools and remodel pools. I think our opportunity is and being further down the aftermarket cycle with the services channel, and making sure we're the company of choice for consumers and that services play. And then also making sure that we go back to our roots and I'd still say we are the technology leader, but we used to be significantly more advanced than we are today. And we believe we have those technologies in the pipeline and need to drive them through a new product development phase, and that will be an investment thesis for 2020 as well.
BrettLinzey:
Okay, great. And then shifting to restructuring, it took I think $6 million this quarter, $7 million last quarter. Are you budgeting more spending in Q4? And then just thinking about the payback? Did most of that get realized in the quarter? Do you see some of that rolling over into 2020 and from saving standpoint? Thanks.
JohnStauch:
So we don't include in our guidance and expectation around restructuring, but I would anticipate there would be some incremental restructuring again in Q4. And the investments and restructuring that we've made in this year really wouldn't see those necessarily reading out now. But those would be part of how we think about 2020. As Mark mentioned, we're attacking some of the factories and some of the efforts within the factories. Those tend to have a little bit longer payoff than just structural changes to the business. So we have a right investments, we do have a larger footprint than we need and it is always geographically perfect. So we've addressed some of that especially the flow side, as Mark mentioned. And while we're seeing the margin improvement, I think there's still an opportunity for more margin improvement down the road.
BrettLinzey:
Okay. And geographically where those costs were focused restructuring?
JohnStauch:
Little bit everywhere. Yes. End of Q&A
Operator:
And there are no further questions. At this time, I will turn the call back over to our speakers for closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us today. We are encouraged by our third quarter performance, and we continue to see further signs of stabilization in our core business. We saw further productivity improvement in the quarter and we continue to build on our strong culture. We've been investing and we'll continue to invest in our key growth strategies, as well as digital enterprise capabilities to better serve our customers. We have a strong capital structure, solid free cash flow and we will continue to invest in our strategy to be the leading residential commercial water treatment company. Thank you for your continued interest. Dorothy, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Rob and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q2 2019 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After your presenter's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Jim Lucas, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Rob. And welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2019 performance as well as our third quarter and full year 2019 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions-and-answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim and good morning everyone. Please turn to Slide Number 4, titled Executive Summary. We are pleased to deliver second quarter results in-line with our expectations, even as weather issues lingered throughout the quarter. We continued to believe that the underlying demand trends in our businesses remain healthy and we have plenty of growth opportunities ahead of us. Our second half outlook demonstrates progress against unprecedented inflation inclusive of tariffs and we now believe that we will get back to our 18% tax rate for the remainder of 2019 and for 2020. Our recent acquisitions Aquion and Pelican are performing in-line with expectations. Further, both deals help us accelerate our Residential Water Treatment strategy, which I will provide an update on later in the call. We are continuing to invest in our top growth priorities and I will provide more color on our focused opportunities after Mark shares details on Q2 and our updated guidance. I will now turn the call over to Mark.
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled Q2'19 Pentair Performance. For the second quarter, we saw core sales increased 1%, segment income fall 6% and adjusted EPS was down 3%. We will provide more color on the individual segment performance shortly. Below the line we saw an adjusted tax rate of 18%, net interest/other expense of $10.6 million and our average shares in the quarter were 170.5 million. We had originally expected our tax rate to increase in 2019 due to proposed IRS rule changes, because the proposed rules have not yet been finalized and enacted, as well as actions to help mitigate the expected impact; we now believe our full year adjusted tax rate will be at the 18% level we reported in 2018. Finally, free cash flow was well north of $300 million and in-line with normal seasonal patterns. As John, mentioned in his opening remarks, we are pleased to deliver operational results in line with expectations, despite the lingering weather issues. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q2 19 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the second quarter performance of our three segments. As this slide illustrates two of our three segments delivered core sales growth in the quarter. The one exception was Aquatics, which continues to be impacted by weather delays and excess channel inventory. Aquatic saw segment income declined 4% on a 2% core sales decline. Filtration Solutions returned to growth, delivering 1% core sales growth. We commented that the first quarter results were impacted by a number of one-time issues and we believe that the second quarter performance shows that many of those issues have moderated. Segment income was down 4% and margins declined 250 basis points against a very tough comparison last year and negative mix during the quarter. We saw growth in our industrial and food and beverage businesses, while residential was relatively flat in the quarter. We continue to focus on positioning Filtration Solutions to drive more consistent and predictable growth and anticipate margins mixing up over time. Flow Technologies delivered 5% core sales growth as price continue to read out and we also saw improvement in our commercial and infrastructure businesses. Although the agriculture markets continue to be down for us, agriculture performed in line with our revised expectations. Segment income declined 6%, however, the segment margin decline was half the rate we experienced in the first quarter. This was the last tough comparison around inflation and we are expecting flow margins to turn positive in the second half. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. We are pleased with our second quarter cash flow performance and delivered $343 million in free cash flow, which is in line with normal seasonal patterns. During the quarter, we successfully completed a $400 million 10-year note offering, which was used to repay debt incurred to fund our first quarter acquisitions, and will also be used to help fund our second half debt maturities. With the new offering, our debt structure is now predominantly fixed and we continue to have strong balance sheet optionality. Also in the second quarter, we repurchased 150 million of our shares in line with our annual share repurchase plan. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q3'19 Pentair Outlook. We anticipate third quarter sales, core sales to decrease 1% to 3%. We expect Aquatic Systems to be down 8% to 10%, as we continue to focus on making sure channel inventories return to more normalized levels by the end of the year. We expect Filtration Solutions to be up 1% to 3% and Flow Technologies to be flat to up 2%. We anticipate segment income to be approximately flat to up 2%, as we expect inflation comparisons to ease and price to fully read out and we continue to drive productivity. We expect adjusted EPS to be in a range of $0.54 to $0.56 per share. Below the line, we expect corporate expenses to be approximately $14 million to $15 million. We expect our third quarter tax rate to be 18%. We also expect net interest other expense of roughly $9 million and shares to be approximately 169 million. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled Full Year 2019 Pentair Outlook. Slide 9 looks at the different components of our updated 2019 outlook. For the full year, we expect core sales to be flat to down 1%, as we continue to expect price of roughly 3% for the full year. We expect flat to up 1% with roughly 2% contribution from the recently announced acquisitions offset by 1% headwind from FX. We anticipate segment income to be approximately 2%; we expect full year adjusted EPS to be approximately $2.35 per share. Other items embedded in our guidance include corporate expense of $60 million to $65 million, a tax rate of 18%, net interest other expense of $37 million and an average share count for the year of 171 million shares. As we look at our 2019 second half and full year expected performance, it is important to consider the unusual circumstances we have experienced in 2018 and the first half of 2019. Starting in the second half of 2018 and through the first half of 2019, we experienced significant material inflation partially driven by tariffs of over $120 million. In 2018, we implemented price increases in part to address this dramatic increase and inflation and the net result was a significant increase in inventory levels in our distribution channels. Through the first half of 2019, as these elevated inventory levels are being worked down, several of our key markets and pools in agriculture were hit with historically wet cold weather, resulting in a delay and inventory channel levels being worked down. We believe this perfect storm of unusual external factors resulted in far from normal experience in the first two quarters of 2019. As we look forward to 2020, we expect to return to a more normalized level of performance more in-line with our long-term expectations. I would now like to turn the call back to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to Slide Number 10, labeled Focused Strategies. I wanted to provide an update on our two focus growth strategies. We recently completed a comprehensive North American residential consumer segmentation, which has provided great insights into how to better position two of our key businesses pool and residential and commercial water filtration for differentiated growth. The segmentation analysis gave us granularity as to our customers' needs, behaviors and key attributes. These insights allow us to better understand their buying behaviors, as well as customer journey mapping in future product insights to meet their needs. These insights are critical to driving our marketing efforts and to be more targeted in the types of personas that we want to engage with in the future and how to best connect them with our channel partners. As we focus on advancing pool growth, we have opportunities in both the new and replacement markets. Whether only about 75,000 new pools built a year, we see opportunities to increase our content per pool, particularly around automation and connected solutions, as well as new products in the areas of remote monitoring, advanced energy efficiency and simplicity of maintenance. These are also similar opportunities with approximately 5 million installed in ground pools, we continue to look at the poolpad as pools ecosystem. Through this lens, we are developing more efficient treatment technologies as well as smart, an IoT enabled products that seamlessly configure and operate more effectively together. These solutions are being managed by what we believe are best-in-class apps that enable a superior user experience, as well as opportunities to drive improved levels of customer service. Accelerating residential and commercial water treatment is our other primary growth opportunity; the first area we are focusing on is end-to-end residential consumer filtration. Here our two recent acquisitions are playing an important part. Aquion brought to us systems capabilities as well as affiliated RainSoft dealers. Pelican brought an online capability that expands our omnichannel reach. Similar to what we have done in Aquatic Systems, we have been looking at water treatment applications throughout the home as a system offering. Through this work, we have identified many customer back opportunities to create differentiated water treatment products and systems. We are developing more efficient treatment technologies tackling some of the challenges that are top of mind for consumers today, such as lead removal and delivering great tasting water at every tap in your home. We also been developing and we will soon be launching the Pentair home and Pentair pro apps that bring our new suite of smart IoT enabled products to life. These sets of apps seamlessly connect consumers, water treatment service providers and Pentair to provide product performance monitoring, control and service. The second opportunity we see is building our commercial filtration business. We have enjoyed strong presence in foodservice historically and we plan to continue to focus in this area. There are other areas such as commercial office water that offer additional growth opportunities over time. We believe that these are two significant and focus growth opportunities that can accelerate our organic growth rates and create significant share on the value. I would now like to turn the call over to Rob for Q&A, after which I will have a few closing remarks. Rob, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Just thinking about the fourth quarter, I mean, how are we -- how do we think about kind of the comp there in Aquatics, there is a lot moving around, obviously you had a bit of a pre-buy last year, you're still saying it's going to be I guess, up what -- are we comfortable with that?
John Stauch:
Hi, Steve; when you say up -- time up, revenue up, income up, just trying to…
Steve Tusa:
Yes, I guess whatever revenue and income, I think it's up -- I don't know, I'm sorry I've been in another call, so I didn't -- I'm not -- maybe I missed that. Just talk about -- just talk about how you approach the comp in the fourth quarter I guess?
John Stauch:
Yes, first to talk about Q4 overall. So, with respect to Aquatics, Aquatics on the top-line is when you work out the math is down slightly.
Steve Tusa:
Okay.
John Stauch:
In volume, so that is kind of acknowledging a bit of the comp from the prior year, as well as are the continued working down of the inventory that we talked about previously. The other two businesses, we do see those as improving from a revenue perspective some of that's driven by price and some driven by volume. And when you look at the bottom line and think about kind of the year-over-year we start to get, we get more help from price, we are less of a headwind from inflation. We certainly had the acquisitions are embedded in there, so those start to add as well. And then productivity gets better in Q4, if you remember last year we called out some challenges in the Flow business, so we start to see some productivity improvements. They start to read out in Q3, but then continue to ramp up in Q4.
Steve Tusa:
And when you think about the myriad of items, the kind of hit the other businesses, the non-Aquatics business in the first quarter could you maybe just discuss any changes in some of the bigger moving parts in the first quarter? You know the negative items like there were some weakness in Europe in Filtration, there were few things. And any kind of changes on those front that bounce back or anything here, I mean, it looks like it was a little more stable and a little better in those businesses.
John Stauch:
Steve, I think that's the right way to think about it. Things were a little more stable, you know, in particular -- in filtration, we did call out a number of what I referenced a sort of unusual or one-time type items in Q1. Those stabilize and moderated in Q2. We didn't see certainly a headwind from Europe, for example, in Q2, in filtration and the businesses was better performance in Q2 and we would anticipate seeing something similar as we work through the balance of the year.
Steve Tusa:
Okay.
Mark Borin:
Steve, the only issue we had in Q2 outside of Aquatics was weather impacting our irrigation businesses and flow in Q2 and that didn't get better off the Q1, but other than that is we don't think that's a lingering effect because the seasons kind of come and gone.
Steve Tusa:
And then are you guys buying back stock? Did you buyback any in the quarter? And what's your appetite for the second half?
John Stauch:
Yes, so we've bought back 150 million shares in the quarter and that represents our plan for the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone. I'd like to focus a little bit on the productivity line here. It was a headwind of $6 million bucks to operating income in the quarter. I know your net growth investments against underlying productivity there. So, can you just give us a little more color on what led to that $6 million headwind in the quarter?
Mark Borin:
Yes, Nathan. It's frankly it's a number of sort of small items that you know that individually don't really amount too much, but overall what drives the $6 million. I think one of the things that we see is, we do see productivity starting to build. As you know productivity, as we start to work through, it takes a little time to work its way through inventory. So, we can see that building up in inventory and that's what gives us confidence that we will start to see that, that productivity number churn as we work our way into Q3 and Q4, and we see our operational and supply productivity actions starting to read out.
John Stauch:
Nathan, I would just add that we have significant progress on sourcing that we're making up on against the inflationary issues and that is a positive, and we feel confident about that continuing. We had one lingering productivity issue, which is our larger pump flow business and we're continuing to experience headwinds there that we feel confident, we've got the on-time delivery back up and we've got most of the past due being worked down as we head into Q3 here. So, we feel good about that turning around to a positive in the back half of the year, as Mark mentioned. And I just, like, lastly mentioned that these two growth initiatives, we have a great pool business and we're continue to invest in it despite what's going on with the weather headwinds. So, we're putting a fair amount of sales, customer service support against that. And then also on the end-to-end residential solutions, which is our Pelican business; we're investing heavily to build out the brand in the marketing efforts there. So, those are some negatives against what I think is a sustained positive productivity that you should see in Q3 and Q4.
Nathan Jones:
Well, I wouldn't call growth investments in negative even though that does negatively affect that productivity number. But maybe I could push you a little bit further on this because I did go back and read the transcript from third quarter last year. And there was talk about productivity improvements coming from sourcing improvements that would come at a later date. There was talk about some of these inventory, the productivity improvements building an inventory and three quarters later, we're still seeing a negative number here in productivity. So, any color you can -- if more color you can give us on where the confidence comes that we are going to see a turnaround in that number in the second half of the year, when it's been quite a long time coming here.
John Stauch:
Yes, Nathan, all I can say is that, as I said, we do start to see it actually reading out in inventory, which would then come through and we see it through the P&L. And the funnels that gives us the confidence are built in a very detailed granular level action start to build up and we see them starting the anniversary and carry over. So, I can't comment on sort of the relationship to last year, but certainly when we look at this year and the activities that the teams are working on, we feel confident about the Q3 and Q4 trajectory there.
Nathan Jones:
Would you be prepared to give us a number that you'd expect out of that productivity line in the second half of the year?
John Stauch:
We wouldn't specifically comment on that other than to say that, it certainly is going to improve over the number that we see for Q2.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. Okay, thanks for the help. I'll pass it on.
John Stauch:
Nathan, I share your energy and passion around this. I think we feel good about the sequential run rate of our cost structures, if they go forward. When you look at a year-over-year, I mean, if you take back at Filtration Solutions Q2 last year and the ROS that they had, you saw a pretty high ROS. So, we've got some year-over-year comparables in this Q2 that aren't the same comparables as we head into Q3 and Q4. In growth is such a huge component of this drop through that, that's why Mark is not going to give you an exact number at this time.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. I'll pass it on. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Joe Giordano from Cowen. Your line is open.
Joe Giordano:
So I just want to start on Aquatics just talking through the progression throughout the year. So, we make last quarter we kind of readjust everything, we have some -- you had some tough comps coming through in the back half of the year. And so what, -- what when you look at that landscape today is different versus three months ago outside of like some of the weather impacts, when you think about second half specifically for the revenue side of things for Aquatics?
Mark Borin:
Yes, really, Joe, the underlying fundamentals continue to be similar to what we commented on at the end of the first quarter, it's really the impact of continued wet cold weather in April and May that significantly impacted sort of our ability to bring down those inventory levels, and so the inventory reduction is led to the right and now that's what's effect in Q3 and Q4. That's really the story for a products, both on the top-line and then when you think about the drop-through on to the bottom line as well.
Joe Giordano:
And then when I think you mentioned in the slides commercial office water, I'm not sure I remember hearing too much about that in the past. Is that something new that you guys are working on, can you kind of talk to that opportunity what that landscape looks like?
John Stauch:
Yes, thank you for bringing it up. I mean it's really as we have a good foodservice relationship and when you take a water in foodservice it's really critical and important to our end consumers even the form of making coffee, pizza dough, making sure they got safe clean water and good tasting water for their restaurant customers. We also have all those products that we sell into the commercial office water space. And what we're seeing with the office space is being reconfigured and redone, as people want the good tasting water more at the tap, or the capability and then we feel we have superior technology around carbonation capability and also mineral dosing or flavor dosing capability. We could bring that either through OEM partnerships. We can bring that through our existing channels or we're looking for ways to accelerate that through service or total water management in the commercial office water space. So, it's an area that we've been strategically working on for the last 18 months and we really feel like we've got great technology and great products to bring to market there and just wanted to highlight it is an area that we're going to be focusing on.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Let's stay with the commercial office water opportunity because it does seem like a natural fit for Pentair that whole sector is seeing a disruptive change getting away from that five gallon jug business. But it does bake the question, how do you approach this from a growth ambition how much would be organic, you're looking at M&A in this opportunity? Some folks have approached it with rentals, other outright sales through dealer networks, but some additional color would be helpful as well as a timeline, if you could?
John Stauch:
Yes, Deane, I appreciate it. You know clearly the market from a service or delivery perspective is highly fragmented, which has always been a challenge to kind of breakthrough and make sure that your products and capabilities are there. I won't mention by name, but several large OEM producers are looking to get in this market, primarily around delivering the flavored and/or carbonated water needs as well as there's other partners that are thinking about how we bring heated water for tea and coffee to bear. So, I think the movement of having fresh new differentiated technology advanced products is a great opportunity for Pentair, to certainly partner and bring those products through. As far as going to the services end, or doing the last mile, Deane as you mentioned, I think that would have to be more likely an inorganic strategy, which is not what I was addressing today, but I was talking about bringing those products to market.
Deane Dray:
Certainly, that makes sense. We'll be watching that space carefully. And then going back to the Aquatics and the inventory and the channel, you had sized it previously at $60 million excess. Where do you think that stands today? And then, just remind us on what the weather impact because that has you get lower utilization of pools, fewer starts and some of those starts just don't happen that they get pushed out to next year, but just share with us the ripple effects of the weather and how that's reflected in your guidance?
Mark Borin:
Yes, sure. As I mentioned, when we look at Q2, we had assumed some level of inventory reduction and because of the weather impact continuing from Q1 into Q2, we didn't see that. So, the overall level of inventory did not go up. It's not that we built inventory in Q2. It's just that the planned reduction did not happen at the rate we had anticipated. And so now that, that inventory level that existed is got to be worked down further in Q3 and Q4. So, think of that, if you think about the level in which we adjusted the guidance for Aquatic Systems revenue that's reflective of the further need to reduce inventories, driven primarily by weather.
John Stauch:
Deane, if I could just add that I mentioned 75,000 pools, new pools being built. If you put that in context, I think, we estimated at the beginning of the year be close to 80, which is generally what last year was. So, clearly we're seeing in your point the 80,000 going to 75,000 being the labor constraint on that pool construction build and that's likely to slide to the right. Now, we're confident based upon the demands in the area that we think we're going to see those pools get built actually next year based on the overall demand. But weather had to have an impact we think on pushing some of those pools outside of this year's building build cycle.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
So, just to continue down the Aquatics path here. John, just between the absence of destocking and you talked a little bit about the weather push outs. And I know you individually, you probably don't want to make too big of a deal out of each one of those is maybe positive drivers for next year. But if you add all these things up plus some of the commercial initiatives, is Aquatics a business that instead of being a mid-single-digit grower can go to something more like high single-digit next year, just as you start to sell the underlying demand versus destock, and maybe catch up on some of these weather anomalies, whether it's push out or just kind of an unseasonably rainy year?
John Stauch:
Yes, normalize this business has grown mid-to-high single digits Josh, if you go back. I think fundamentally you know overall demand in the aftermarket on the 5 million pools needs to have more penetration of the new pool pad, which is what I'm really pushing here to say that if you put more content into the new pool. And you expand your average pool content you will build your aftermarket capability to basically replace those with like-for-like product. If that like-for-like doesn't exist then you're looking at a channel that needs to go sell your products or upgrade the consumer for you. So, I think we got to take advantage of a shift in focus here and make sure we're spending as much time building out the new content in those 75,000 pools and then benefit from that aftermarket revenue stream as we go forward. The big shift we're having here and where I think we're going to see a huge penetration is on the connected pool side itself, Josh. But I am challenged the team I said, that's a different sale right. I mean it's a technical sale and it requires a little bit more customer and consumer support. So, we're very bullish about what this business can continue to do because we see substantial opportunity in front of it. I cannot guess what weather is going to do next year if we learn one thing from all of this, it's that we've got to have contingency plans against whether not unfolding the way we wanted to.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
That's fair. But I guess mathematically just selling the underlying demand next year, yes, gives you a few points head start anyway right?
John Stauch:
We do think the labor constraint that affected us this year will be in catch-up mode and we do think we'd be entering next year with a relatively healthy backlog, correct.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And then, just one more on the more commercial filtration initiatives. What's your sense on the channel penetration or kind of that channel build out your presence with dealers. Because I know you have a great business on more the national account side, but in markets that are perhaps a little bit more fragmented or, it sounds like there is something a lot of investment on the product, but is there product in the right dealers hands and is that dealer base something that you can penetrate easily?
John Stauch:
Yes, that's our opportunity, Josh, and I wanted to call it out today, because we are focused on building out the acquisitions around the residential side. But we don't want to forget the fact that we have a really good commercial offering and we're also simultaneously working on that. And what that means is getting back to what we used to be great at and what we are going to be great at, which is selling the spec and working with our global partners to convince them that we have a superior product and that they should be designing and specking that, that product into their expansions. I think a global hotel chains, think of all the hospitality efforts, think of anybody who's moving their stores overseas, those are great opportunities for us to make sure that we're designing in our Everpure product in all of those instances.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Thanks, John. I'll leave it there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Good morning. Just wanted to go kind of touch on price cost and productivity, it looks like you're kind of got price matching inflation this quarter. How should we think about that delta in the second half. And then on productivity, I think, you're nicely positive in 1Q and went negative. I know you mentioned the one large pump business, but what's the change there?
Mark Borin:
So, you kind of hit it on price cost, so we do expect, as we sort of thought throughout the year that the price that we referenced about three points of rice should offset inflation. So, that continues to be the point of view. And then just on productivity, as we talked about, there is some negatives that affected us in this quarter. John referenced the fact that last year was a pretty solid quarter for us so the comp is there and that kind of read its way through year-over-year productivity. And then we've got all the actions in place that have been worked and we are starting to see read out through inventory that will then find their way into the P&L starting in Q3 and Q4. So, we've got good visibility to the actions and the things that are going to take place in the Flow and Filtration businesses that should drive that incrementally improving productivity.
Jeff Hammond:
So, price versus inflation, you still think is neutral in the second half, you don't get a net positive with some of the deflation?
John Stauch:
No, I mean no, because you get the deflation and also just the timing of price. So net-net, it continues to be kind of a push. I mean, I think Mark you were also -- you're putting labor inflation in there as well.
Mark Borin:
Yes, total inflation, but not just the material inflation.
Jeff Hammond:
And then just last one on Aquatics. If you kind of our successful kind of getting inventory down, within line with what's kind of this new guidance? Where do you see inventories entering 2020 versus normal? Thanks.
Mark Borin:
Yes, our plan and what our updated guidance is reflective of is inventory levels being brought to a more normalized level. So, -- and when we do that, we look at sort of days on hand on a forward basis and think of it that way. So, we're looking at it, what it was historically and then bring in the inventory levels down to sort of that more normalized historical level on a day's basis.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Brian Lee:
Just maybe on filtration again, can you elaborate a bit on the trends you're seeing there, it seems like you had a nice rebound off of 1Q, you had the one-time issues there. But you mentioned food and beverage was up, resi is down in the quarter, but maybe any more color there and also the trends you're expecting heading into the second half?
John Stauch:
Sure. Yes, so just thinking about the different businesses, residential and commercial I think of them as sort of flat in the quarter. And then as I mentioned industrial was strong and food and beverage was moderating. We see those trends kind of continuing. We start continue to see residential and commercial improving as we work our way through the year. Within residential is where those two acquisitions exist so those is, as we referenced are performing in-line with expectations, but we're really seeing some exciting opportunities from a growth perspective there and starting to see the rationale for why we did those deals starting to read out and really giving us some confidence that there is some great ideas there, they're going to help us continue to grow those businesses, but then also help us think about the broader residential portfolio. So overall, we're seeing the trends going in the right direction and seeing that continue through Q3 and Q4.
Brian Lee:
Okay, fair enough. And then just maybe a follow-up on since you bring it up on the new acquisitions, I noticed that a subtle tweak here. But it seem like you're taking down the full year contribution from 3% to 2% in the updated guidance, maybe if you could comment on what's driving that as well?
John Stauch:
Sure. We haven't talked about it necessarily, but we did announce earlier in the quarter that we were getting out of what we refer to is the aquaculture business. So, that wasn't actually reflected in our original plan or guidance and so that's the slight tweak. So, it's not that the acquisitions aren't performing at a level of expectation, it's that we've included an additional divestiture that, you're right that's pulling down the top-line acquisition number.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi guys, this is Jason [ph] on for Julian. How are you?
John Stauch:
Good. Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
All right. Just a couple of quick ones on Filtration and Flow in general trends, I know you guys have said that the residential and commercial trends are improving throughout the quarter. I just kind of wanted to clarify that, that is sort of an underlying demand commentary and not a reversal of maybe sort of one-time issues that you saw in both of those businesses in Q1. And if so, is there any sort of bifurcation in the differences of strength between the residential and commercial underlying market?
John Stauch:
Let me hit part of that first. I mean, as you recall, when we talked about putting in the price increases last year in September, relative to the tariff and the inflationary impacts, we did see some inventory pull aheads in the residential and commercial flow & filtration space as well. We felt like we work through all of those in Q1 and work those inventory issues behind us. So, we had already started in a better inventory position in Q2 and that is continuing to read out here as we head into Q3 and Q4, meaning that we don't have those same challenges that we had in Aquatics. Mark, I don't know if you want to add.
Mark Borin:
No, I think that, I mean, I think you picked up on that correctly. So, it's not -- it's underlying fundamentals rather than reversal of anything specifically one-time other than the things, John, that you mentioned.
Unidentified Analyst:
But I guess just as a quick follow-up, would you characterize the underlying demand as sort of improving? Or is this sort of just an inventory issue that was being worked through as a result of pricing increases across last year? I guess what I'm trying to get at is, is it sort of, are the customer conversations getting better, or is that, you know, the issues that were present in Q1 are just completely behind you and now Q2 and Q4 tell sort of the different story?
John Stauch:
On filtration, residential and commercial are improving. We're excited about the awareness of the products and the offerings available in the channel and the migration towards more of those making into the consumers' hands. In irrigation flow, I'd say no. The weather patterns did not read out in Q2 and we think we're going to be relatively experiencing the shipment demand as we head into Q3 and Q4 as well. Those are submersible wells.
Unidentified Analyst:
Understood. Thank you for your time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Walter Liptak from Seaport Global. Your line is open.
Walter Liptak:
You commented about the perfect storm in the channel inventory. I wonder, first, is it -- or is it not far enough behind us where we can do a postmortem on the situation with the inventory build from tariffs and weather? And then I don't mean to -- Monday morning quarterback, but have you learned anything from it? Like what could you have done differently? Because I don't think that the tariff issues or weather are going to go away. What is about the channel that you can do to keep this from happening again?
John Stauch:
Yes. We're hopeful that this goes in the category late '08-'09 financial crisis of the learning that we don't have to ever use again. When you can think about 10% material inflation over the course of a couple of years and then raising prices to mitigate that impact, we did not anticipate that the channel would buy so much ahead of that demand. You know and we realized that and we corrected course as you're -- what did we learn from that, I think we have a lot of sell-through metrics, we have a lot of information available to us that we're now looking at to make our own assumptions of what's in the channel, so that we will rely on partners it's one thing, but we also want to make sure that we're triangulating that information and ensuring that we feel like the sell-through is reflecting what we know it to be. So, there's always a learning and I'd say that's the learning and I think we're more informed now and we have a better idea of what our actual end sales are through the channel versus into the channel.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. And then switching gears over to your comments about segmentation, you know, we've seen other companies like IDEX do a really incredible job with segmentation. And it sounds like you're doing product segmentation, I wonder if you're doing channel or customer segmentation too? And then as a follow-on on the product question, the R&D spending, what do you do -- doing the track some of the incremental R&D? How much is R&D going up, just some looking for some data or details about the kind of return you're expecting from some of these investments?
John Stauch:
Well, first of all, thank you for noticing the segmentation comment it is in fact a consumer end user segmentation. And it was pretty exhaustive and a particular piece of marketing that we're using significantly and you can sense by our confidence level that gives us extreme confidence because as we start to target these personas, or we start to understand these personas better and we've used marketing campaigns, we're actually seeing the results from it. And you know these personas and the consumer needs, attributes and behaviors that we're spending time to understand are true and they're ringing out. And now we're building product sets and customer support around those that we can continue to grow faster. So, thanks for noticing. On the R&D, I'm a big advocate that we need to spend more and have the right differentiated and innovative product. I think these marketing insights that we're creating will give us a better connectivity to what's needed. So, I don't know, in the short run if it's spending more, it's spending more wisely and having the right products available to the right customer set.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Brett [ph] from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, just want to come back to Q3, if I'd just assume normal incremental margins and progression you talked about in flow and filtration. Basically implies you need some margin expansion in Aquatics in Q3 to get to the midpoint of the guide, I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that right?
Mark Borin:
Yes, that -- maybe slightly, but that -- but not the margin decline that we've seen in the first -- in the first quarter and the second quarter.
John Stauch:
Think about it as what we had half a month worth of price benefit last year and we're getting a -- that's we're getting the carryover of this year of that price and what we're seeing is the price in inflation headwind year-over-year significantly positive across all three businesses.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. So, despite the lower absorption, you expect to see you think you can overcome all that?
John Stauch:
Yes, yes.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, good. And then just geographically, maybe just walk around the different regions, we didn't really talk about China. I think, last quarter you said Europe was a little bit weaker than you had expected. How was Europe specifically in the quarter and then maybe any color on China and what you're seeing there?
John Stauch:
Sure, yes. So, overall, we saw Europe kind of get back from some of the negative commentary made in Q1 to growth in Q2. So, Europe it was a positive story and we think that's going to continue through the rest of the year. China continues to grow. I mean, so as we've talked before it's not a huge market for us overall, but we see strong growth in China, that's a continuation from the trend that we saw in Q1, continuing in Q2, and we expect to see that as well continuing through the balance of the year.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, good. Thanks. I'll pass it along.
John Stauch:
Thank you. All right, thank you for joining us today. We continue to believe that we will exit 2019 positioned to deliver more normalized performance in 2020. We are accelerating PIMS and sourcing and strengthening our productivity culture. We are funding the two key strategies discussed earlier in the call, and we hope you share in our excitement for these two key growth strategies. We have a strong capital structure, solid free cash flow generation and we will continue to invest in our strategy to be the leading residential and commercial water treatment company. Thank you for your continued interest. Rob, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. And ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation today. This does conclude today's conference call and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is a Zetania, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair 2019 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host Mr. Jim Lucas. Sir, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Zetania and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2019 performance, as well as our second quarter and full year 2019 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q, Form 10-K, and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. As we shared earlier this month, our first quarter of 2019 reflected cold wet weather in many parts of the country and this had an adverse impact on our first quarter sales of our high margin pool and specialty ag spray businesses. This weather pattern combined with distribution inventory that was created to avoid our heavier than usual price increases related to 2018 tariff impacts created a significant impact to the bottom line. The slower pull-through of demand in Q1 related to weather and pool, means that we expect inventory will now be worked out of the channel in Q2 and Q3, causing the further reduction to our full year guidance. While these two events created unique impact on the business, we feel that this situation is isolated to 2019 and our overall thesis for our pool business remains healthy and intact. On a more positive note, we completed two strategic acquisitions during the first quarter that further our strategic initiative to accelerate residential and commercial water treatment. Both acquisitions are performing well and the integrations are on track. I will now turn the call over to Mark, who'll provide more detail on Q1, Q2 and the full year forecast. Mark?
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to slide 5, labeled Q1 2019 Pentair Performance. For the first quarter we saw core sales declined 4%. Segment income fall 16% and adjusted EPS is down 12%. We'll provide more color on the individual segment performance shortly. Below the line we saw an adjusted tax rate of 18%, net interest other expense of $8.5 million, and our average shares in the quarter were 172.5 million. Net interest other expense was a bit higher than planned due to the two acquisitions closing earlier than expected. Please turn to slide 6, labeled Q1 2019 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the first quarter performance of our three segments. Following robust growth in 2018, which we believe was somewhat elevated as distributors bought inventory ahead of price increases as we commented on our fourth quarter call, first quarter core sales in Aquatics declined 6%. Segment income in Aquatics declined 13% as the produced top line led to under-absorption in the quarter. Core sales declined 6% in Filtration Solutions, but segment income was flat due primarily to positive mix. Within the core residential and commercial business, we saw two areas of softness that we believe are short-term in nature. First, we experienced lower component sales as Aquion is now represented as intercompany sales and is no longer reflected as external sales. Second, Europe saw ongoing weakness but the comps are easing. While this had an impact on our first quarter sales mostly due to timing, we continue to see positive growth prospects for the key residential and commercial piece of Filtration. We note that the food and beverage and industrial businesses were on plan for the quarter. Flow Technologies reported flat core sales but that does not capture the story of the 22% segment income decline. While price helped the residential piece of Flow, we saw our specialty business, which is exposed to agriculture crop spray faced significant top line pressure. Specialty is one of the most profitable product lines within Flow and the sales in this contributed to the income decline in the quarter. We are rightsizing the cost structure of specialty to the adjusted demand levels now expected for 2019. Please turn to slide 7, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Our first quarter saw cash flow usage in line with seasonal trends as we tend to build working capital in advance of the important residential selling season primarily in our Aquatics segment. In addition, we closed on two strategic acquisitions during the quarter and saw our debt level increase as a result. While our debt level increased from the end of 2018, we expect cash flow to turn positive in the second quarter and we anticipate debt levels coming down as cash flow improves throughout the year. While we did not repurchase any shares during the first quarter, we remain committed to buying $150 million in 2019. Please turn to slide 8, labeled Q2 2019 Pentair Outlook. We anticipate second quarter core sales to be flat to up 1%. We expect Aquatic Systems to be flat to down 1%, Filtration Solutions to be flat to down 2% and Flow Technologies to grow 2% to 4%. We anticipate segment income to be down approximately 5% to 7% as some of our more profitable businesses continue to see short-term top line pressure. We expect adjusted EPS to be in a range of $0.63 to $0.66 per share. Below the line we expect corporate expense to be approximately $14 million to $16 million. We expect our second quarter tax rate to be 22% as we anticipate a true-up during the quarter. We also expect net interest other expense of roughly $11 million and shares to be approximately 171 million. Please turn to slide 9, labeled Full Year 2019 Pentair Outlook. Slide 9 looks at the different components of our updated 2019 outlook. For the full year, we expect core sales to be flat to up 1%. We continue to expect price of roughly 3% for the full year. We expect total sales growth of roughly 1% to 2% with roughly 3% contribution from the recently announced acquisitions offset by a 2% headwind from FX. We anticipate segment income to be flat to up 2%. Our full year adjusted EPS range is $2.30 to $2.35 per share. Other items embedded in our guidance include corporate expense of $60 million to $65 million, a tax rate of 20.5%, net interest other expense of $38 million, and an average share count for the year of 171 million shares. I would like to turn the call back to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to slide number 10, labeled Full Year Guidance Update. Before I discuss our longer-term outlook, this slide is meant to be a helpful look at what has changed since we provided our initial 2019 guidance. While we do not like to use whether as a reason for sales miss, the reality is that cold wet weather had a pronounced impact on two of our businesses, pool and agriculture precision spray. The main change from original forecast is our very profitable Aquatics business. In 2018 Aquatics delivered higher than average growth of 11%. We anticipated that some inventory was pulled ahead of the price increases, but it is worth talking about what was -- what has happened to the start of the year. Wet and cold weather delayed pool construction activity in several key markets such as California, Texas, and Arizona. The inclement weather also impacted pool openings in other parts of the country primarily the Sunbelt. As a result, sell-through in our distribution channels was impacted and therefore inventories were not reduced at the levels we would have expected if the pattern would have been more consistent with historical trends when weather was not a factor. Of importance is that we have not seen any significant changes in demand trends within the key Aquatics markets. Our dealers continue to report strong backlog and while weather created delays, we expect inventory levels in the channel to come down as activity resumes in the second and third quarters. Within Flow Technologies, we saw our higher margin agricultural precision spray impacted as many parts of the country were under water to start the planting season. Given these delays and the limited number of months in the season, we are not anticipating a rebound in activity and are adjusting the cost structure of this business accordingly. With Aquatics and the specialty business in Flow experiencing slower topline growth rates in 2019, this has led to reduced expectations for segment income and adjusted EPS growth. We do believe this is a short-term issue, but unfortunately, the weather-related delays were compounded by the higher inventory levels in the distribution channels. Please turn to slide 11 titled Segment Positioning. We wanted to take a moment to speak to our three segments and why we believe we are well-positioned for the longer term. Aquatic Systems is a leading franchise where we believe long-term demand trends remain in place. We expect to continue to invest in dealer engagement and consumer pull. We have been expanding aftermarket products including in the faster-growing automation space. We have built a strong business and while the growth rate in 2019 is not up to historical standards, we believe that averaging 2018 and 2019 is more reflective of the longer term growth rate of this attractive business. As we mentioned earlier in the call, we strengthened our residential and commercial water treatment business with two strategic acquisitions. Aquion brought water treatment systems capabilities and an affiliated dealer network, while Pelican brought a water conditioning systems capability and an established e-commerce platform. In 2019, we will experience some modest impact to the topline as former component sales to Aquion are recognized as inter-company sales. We continue to focus on digital marketing and engaging consumers to build our brand. Flow Technologies continues to be a business where we are focusing on leveraging our core PIMS competencies and improving margins. While parts of the Flow portfolio have been impacted by inventory and weather issues, we are accelerating operations, sourcing, and structural changes to improve our overall cost structure to create a solid foundation for 2020. Please turn to Slide 12 titled Long-Term Value Creation Goals. This is an updated version of a chart we have referenced in the past, but an important slide as it highlights our longer term goals. With last year's separation and our emergence as a pure play-focused residential and commercial water treatment company, we remain committed to delivering more consistent performance. We continue to believe that we have a portfolio capable of delivering low to mid-single-digit core sales growth over this cycle. With a portfolio capable of delivering positive price coupled with the relentless focus on productivity, we expect segment income to grow mid to high single-digits. We generate strong free cash flow and have committed to repurchasing 150 million of our shares annually. We believe that this should result in top-quartile EPS growth and disciplined capital allocation would add upside to a strong base performance. We recognize that consistency is the key to being recognized as a top-quartile performer and we remain committed to achieving these long-term goals. I would now like to turn the call over to Zetania for Q&A after which I will have a few closing remarks. Zetania, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey Steve.
Mark Borin:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
So, just curious as to what really kind of changed from when you gave guidance in I guess late January or early February to today. I mean I missed it as well. But pool was very clear that they were not going to have the greatest first quarter on the planet and with the destocking impact, you guys actually had guidance like above what they said they were going to guide. I don't know what that is. That's either a disconnect -- there's a disconnect somewhere. What happened there? Why didn't you guys just come out in January and say hey first quarter was going to be -- is going to be weak given these dynamics?
John Stauch:
I think it's a fair question and a good question Steve. I think the different dynamics are it's easy to sit here now and look backwards at what inventory is in the channel. But as we raised prices last year, primarily related to the tariffs, we knew there was a little bit of inventory in the channel being built. But that's all based upon what the expected sell-through is through our dealers into the markets that they serve. And so we had anticipated that the inventory would be dealt with in Q1. But the significant drop in the sell-through produced more inventory in the channel and therefore it didn't make sense to continue to sell into the channel. And that was really what happened later in the quarter Steve.
Steve Tusa:
No, I understand that. And I'm just saying like is there something in the FP&A function here that you guys aren't kind of picking up what the channel is saying? Because again like it was a public company telling you what the growth rate was going to be. And if there was destocking in the first quarter, then you guys would have been below that growth rate instead of guiding to something like 4% to 6%. And then going around to conferences and kind of not really insinuating it all that things were weak over the course of the quarter. Because I think visibility here is a question that I'm getting from investors all the time. And I think there's just a bit of a confidence issue that people have that you guys aren't picking up the right PVs in the channel.
John Stauch:
Yes. Again, I wish it was that easy Steve. I think we're looking at four days of inventory on hand and there's a lot of inputs in there. And I do want to remind everyone there's more than a distributor, right? I mean the pool market and also part of this is distributors in Flow as well, it's not just all pool. And there's lots and lots of distributors and lots of estimates that go into a four days of inventory on hand. And I think we didn't know till late in the quarter that we were in the situation we were and as soon as we knew, we went out and told people and we dealt with it accordingly. And we're taking out the cost and we're taking all the actions we can to position ourselves the best we can for next year. I don't want to damage a great business like pool and I think we're off doing all the right things to grow share and pull demand in that particular business. And I think it's demonstrated that success consistently over a series of years. And I do want to remind you that the tariff changes and the significant price increases was part of this issue as well and those don't happen often.
Steve Tusa:
Sure. On Filtration, what was the -- why was that weak? Because I mean I think we were expecting some weaker sales in Flow given the flooding and all that kind of stuff which is completely legitimate issue. Everybody is kind of seeing the weather and the flooding out there that's definitely not specific to you guys. But Filtration was definitely weak. Can you maybe just talk a little bit more about what happened there? And you guys cut guidance there as well and revenue.
John Stauch:
It definitely was slightly weaker than we expected Steve. I think weather impacted it as well primarily on the service and the installs. The timing of the acquisition was positive as far as the reported acquisition, but it also changed the way the intercompany sales moved from us to those two acquisitions because we sell to both of them. And then we did experience slightly weaker European demand which we have adjusted our full year guide to reflect.
Steve Tusa:
That also would have been helpful to know that you're going to kind of like have a little bit less of an organic impact from these deals that could have been communicated better probably at the time of the deal just some feedback. That's about it. Thanks a lot.
John Stauch:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
I'm going to follow-up on the pool business here. I understand it's seasonal. I would have thought that customers would have been making these decisions -- spending decisions on an annual basis. And if we had cold weather in the first quarter that might defer revenue out of the first quarter into the second quarter or third quarter. Can you guys talk maybe a little bit more about the dynamics there and why you're not just going to catch that the revenue up? I mean, I can understand why the spray business doesn't catch up. But I'm just a little confused on why that pool -- the pool revenue wouldn't just shift from one quarter to the other rather than disappear altogether?
John Stauch:
Yeah. It does. I think clearly, if we didn't have the inventory situation in the channel that we have, part of the Q1 miss would be made up in likely Q2 and Q3, Nathan. I mean, there is limited labor. So people don't go out and necessarily hire more. They're going to slide job's a week or two, or so in the schedule. And so they tend to do as best they can to make them up in the season. What we're really reflecting in the outward quarters is the fact that we still have to deal with the inventory in the channel. So, I do think the dealers will make up the demand. I do think that, our channel partners will see that demand come through and it's more muted on us because of the inventory build that occurred from the Q1 sell-through.
Nathan Jones:
So does that mean there was more inventory in the channel than you guys had predicted when you reported 4Q? I mean, you said you thought there was $30 million of pre-buy in 4Q 2018 ahead of the price increases. Did that end up being higher than you expected which is part of what contributes to this 2018 was higher than it should been and 2019 is lower than it should be?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, what we anticipated to be about a point of headwind for overall Pentair is now a couple points of headwind. Now again, I'm reminding you that it's not just pool. There's a little bit in the Flow Technologies distribution channel as well related to the weather, but yeah as I was mentioning, we were looking as you looked at days of inventory on hand forward-looking in Q4 it felt like 30. Because of the lack of sell-through that happened in Q1 that number expanded and it's got to be dealt with in Q2.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. I just want to follow-up on Steve's question about maybe looking inwardly at your own forecasting tools. Have you run a root cause analysis on this thing kind of looked at the FP&A processes to see if there's things that you guys can do to improve the predictability results here?
Mark Borin:
Nathan, yeah, I mean, as you'd expect we have our PIMS toolkit and that doesn't just apply to how we run the operations it applies to how we run our back office functions as well. So we are using our root cause countermeasure tools to try to understand what are the things that we could had better visibility to and gotten more out in front of. But as John said, sometimes it's a little bit easier to do that when you're --when you've got hindsight information to look at. But that's the information that we need to think about and how do we put that more at the front end rather than seeing it at the back end. So absolutely, we're working on that and looking for improvements across the board.
Nathan Jones:
Is there anything that you found that you could -- that you could share that could change -- could improve those kind of processes? Are you still in the -- are still in progress?
Mark Borin:
That would be such an easy answer, if that was it. I mean, there's no way we could predict the Q1 weather patterns.
Nathan Jones:
That’s fair.
Mark Borin:
I mean, California Arizona and Texas I mentioned are such significant markets to the pool business. And what happened there was so unusual as far as the wet cold weather and that stops production or stops pool builds for a period of time, because they can't move machines in. So, I don't know what we could do. I mean, we always run sensitivity analysis on our forward-looking analysis, but that's not one we would've predicted.
Nathan Jones:
I should have qualified that question to be outside of weather effects and things that were -- would be obviously unpredictable?
John Stauch:
The answer is no. Because I mean, we found out afterwards as we shared in our Q4 call that we felt there was inventory in the channel and that inventory would have normally burned off in Q1. The specialty ag business was also uniquely impacted and that all happened throughout the process in Q1 as well. So those two things led to the Q1 challenges and we've not sensed -- we’ve not put in a forecast of the recovery in pool and we've not put any recovery of the specialty ag in the outlook. And then we've adjusted demand to be what we think are on the lower ends of our forecast models and then we're working the cost actions to go build the foundation for 2020. And that's the only way I could think of reacting to the situation.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Fair enough. I'll pass it on. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Giordano:
So, I don't want to keep asking the same question, but one thing that's confusing to me a little bit. I -- I heading into the quarter when you had your look at inventory and pool I totally understand that that changes because of weather on a day's basis, because the demand side of it changes. But like on a gross level of inventory that number is a fixed number. And so if we're saying that this is largely going to like shift quarters on the revenue side that's where I don't get why the overhang doesn't like kind of fix itself sooner. Because yes we could change like what we thought was 40 days is really 50 or something like that, because the denominator changes but the top -- the actual amount of inventory was a fixed number of units. So that's kind of where I struggle with. I don't understand that.
John Stauch:
That's fair. I mean, I think the one thing I'll remind you is that, if it was just a product sale it was not dependent on labor required to install it. I do think you'd see a quicker recovery. But the labor is not excessive, right? I mean, it's not going to like you're going to go out and add more labor to build more pools in the short-term. So it will come through the channel clearly and we do think that that will spread itself over Q2 and Q3. But the Q1 hit to us is going to be reflected as an inventory reduction in Q2 and Q3. It won't affect the channel that same way.
Joe Giordano:
How much is that -- like is that actual construction element weighing down? Because I always -- we talk about this business being like that's not really a big piece of it at all. So I'm just curious as to how that--
John Stauch:
Well, every dealer is out there either installing a new pool or they're also out there doing the aftermarket aspects or scheduling the aftermarket pool product install. So they're -- they generally are the same people and they're going to do their best to get those pools in place. And so there will be a delay on both ends the aftermarket and the new pools.
Joe Giordano:
Okay. And then on the forward guide for that business so 2Q implies like more of a seasonal sequential ramp than normal, which I guess maybe some of that is a snap -- a little bit of a shift in that demand. But the second half guide is essentially flat year-on-year versus last year and we keep talking about how much pull-forward there was and that was a plus 12 comp. So, how comfortable are you with the back half being flat year-on-year? And what kind of visibility do you have into that?
Mark Borin:
Yeah, Q2 and Q3 as we talk will be impacted by the inventory coming down and then Q4 we expect kind of as you look at it sequentially, it will pick-up and get better and we'll see some of that recovery coming through. And we -- when we look at it for the full year we're confident that the full year expectation is appropriate. And as John said, we factored in everything that we know today as we look at the out quarters.
Joe Giordano:
Okay. And then, if I could just shift quick to last one on Filtration just to follow a bit on what Steve asked initially, to me that was like the biggest surprise was the magnitude of the miss there. It's not pool. It's not Flow. And it was a pretty sizable miss versus the initial guide. So the -- your comment on lower component sales like not being intercompany makes sense, but that -- those I assume were kind of factored in, because you announced those deals before you gave the initial guide. So, can you maybe talk through what -- some of a little bit more detail there?
Mark Borin:
Yes. Let me just frame that. I mean, the intercompany sales are roughly about a point overall total Filtration Solutions for the year, okay? Which will give you an impact on kind of what it is per quarter. Keep in mind we did not have the acquisition as a contribution in Q1. We had it closing after Q1. So these two things you're seeing the benefit of the acquisitions. But we had not forecasted in the quarter the impact of the intercompany sales. But the real impact that we saw was a little bit slowing in Q1 where the weather impact us. We do expect to catch that up in Q2. And then the European trends are not where we'd want them to be. And that's really the reflection that we added to the full year forecast. I don't think we know that. I think we're anticipating it and we're planning for it.
Joe Giordano:
Good. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Mike. Good morning.
Mike Halloran:
So question on the margins on the Flow side. So talk a little bit about the inefficiencies in the mix side please? And then also when do you think that can normalize back to what your previous run rate suggestions were? And how long does some of these headwinds render?
Mark Borin:
Yes. Sure. The biggest contributor to the margins in Flow is the mix impact from the decline on the specialty ag spray business at a higher profit component of that overall portfolio. So that's the -- is the biggest driver. And then the other driver is just the timing in how price works its way in throughout the year as all their price actions take hold. We had talked last quarter about the couple of factories. Those are stabilizing and we see those not having a negative impact to margins during the year and improving as we get through the balance of the year.
Mike Halloran:
Sounds good. And then when we think about the second half of the year here, just explain what's changed now versus your previous guidance. Obviously, so, on the Aquatic side the assumptions on the top line have come in a little bit. Obviously, we're adjusting a little bit through some of the costs on the Filtration side that are no longer external sales. Anything else you would point to that's changed in the back half of the year versus the previous guidance?
Mark Borin:
Sure. I mean, I think the -- overall when you think about it, not a lot has changed. So that's how I characterize kind of the headline. We talked before about just the timing of inventory and how that works off. But -- and then specialty that the business that we referenced right the softness there. We have not projected that that is going to improve as we work through the balance of the year. And so those are probably the two biggest factors when we think about what's different, but overall really the back half of the year is not significantly different than what we had previously been thinking. We have also not assumed like any benefit from tariff relief in this outlook. So that's consistent with the previous outlook. And we've also most of the operations and sourcing and the targeted actions this year are not expected to have 2019 benefits. But they generally are expected to offer contributions in 2020. Meaning, we're driving the activities this year and assuming it's going to take a longer-term to -- longer time to realize it, and therefore are really driving them as a 2020 foundational benefit.
Mike Halloran:
So in other words, if you hit your plan, your expectation is that the run rate exiting 2019 is slightly lower than what you were originally expecting, but not meaningfully lower like the front half trajectory would imply?
Mark Borin:
Yes. That's correct.
Mike Halloran:
Good. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Hey, Deane.
Mark Borin:
Good morning Deane.
Deane Dray:
I might have missed this, but are you able to separate and quantify the impact of weather this quarter from the inventory dynamics?
Mark Borin:
We didn't specifically quantify it earlier Deane. But think of it as $30 million to $40 million. So if you think about the majority of the Q1 impact is really driven by weather, which as John said delays the bleed off of that excess inventory that then happens in Q2 and Q3.
Deane Dray:
Got it. I just wanted to make sure that part had been quantified. And then just is there any ripple effect on pricing? I know you called out the 3% pricing assumption. But with an incentive to work inventory down, is there going to be any compromise on pricing? And what might the dynamics be there?
Mark Borin:
No. No. The overall pricing profile stays the same as you referenced, we talked about 3% for the year, and so nothing changing from a price perspective.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And just last one for me is, it's more of a business model question and maybe it's just an observation. But as Pentair has refocused the portfolio to a water pure play, you've lost that benefit of earnings diversification that you had when nVent was part of the company. So now we're -- we see this vulnerability to weather that really maybe just as magnified versus what the company structure was before. Is this variability or vulnerability just something that comes with the more focused portfolio? And has that been part of the framework that you're looking at for the company Pentair as it is today?
John Stauch:
Deane, I think it's a great observation. The answer is -- to the first question is, yes. I mean, that is definitely exposed more vulnerability on weather impacts. Now what we got to do is build more diversification into our portfolio to account for that. I mean, we did see spots of that. I mean, we did have a good China quarter. I think things in China have improved. We had that little bit of softness in Europe. Normally that wouldn't have happened. But I think the diversification of portfolio is something we will focus on and ensure that we do not subject ourselves to these types of weather patterns and the variability that they can cause.
Deane Dray:
Got it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Hi. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Scott Graham:
So kind of a follow-on to that question. Would it be fair to say that even though Aquatics is really the flagship, the best business, the highest margin and all of that that the business will be built more going forward through organic means aftermarket, consumables that kind of thing and then your acquisitions would be more focused on the other two segments?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, I think, the pool business is well-positioned, and I think we have a lot of organic growth runway remaining. And I think we continue to innovate there from a new product perspective, and we continue to have good intimacy with our channels and our consumers and understand what they have. So I think that's going to be more of our organic strategy as we go forward. As evidenced by the two acquisitions that we just did, our goals in Filtration Solutions is to build out a closer-to-customer model and also make sure that we're doing our part to drive demand in the channel. The overall penetration rate of Filtration systems in homes is relatively low. And, although, it's better in the commercial office space and/or commercial restaurant space, it's still not where we think it should be or can be. And so, most of our acquisition activity will be focused about, how do we drive that demand and how do we get closer to the customer to drive that demand in Filtration.
Scott Graham:
Good. Thank you for that, John. That helps. My follow-up is, really, not to beat the horse even deader here, but would you be able to maybe answer this question, because you indicated that there doesn't seem to be a much of a change in demand on the pool side. I'm not quite sure what you meant by that. And maybe, the question specifically would be, what was sell-through by your dealers in the quarter?
Mark Borin:
Yes. When we see -- when we talk to our dealers and we hear from our -- from the builders and understand, sort of, what's going on out in the market, backlogs remain high, business remains solid. So when we talk about we're not hearing anything from an underlying perspective that the market is slowing, it's based on those discussions and that insight. And that's really what -- kind of, what informs the way we're thinking about that. I mean, sell-through, from the information that we have access to, remains strong. I think, we'd expect an impact in Q1 from weather, but as we said that starts to turn around and as we move into the heavy season here in Q2 and Q3. So, again, underlying trends in demand, we're not seeing anything that would indicate softness there.
Scott Graham:
So your -- from what, I think, I'm gleaning from this is that, your distribution channel is kind of normalizing right now?
John Stauch:
I mean, I can't speak to that. But I can tell you, what Mark is saying is, the sell-through is accelerating, right? The March sell-through was definitely towards the end high from the dealer channel and then we also know the dealer channel is going to make up. As we mentioned, most of that whether loss in Q1, they're going to do their best to make that up in Q2. Why that's muted to Pentair is, because there is that inventory in the channel that needs to be worked out before we're going to see the benefit of that recovery of the channel shift.
Scott Graham:
That makes sense. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.
John Stauch:
Hi, Josh Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Josh
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just a follow-up, just a finer point on pool that I think Mark raised earlier, I want to not miss it in passing that, the business should normalize by the fourth quarter. I guess, just given everything we've seen from tariff pre-buy and even your callouts about the inventory position exiting the year. I guess, mathematically looking at guidance, you do have to pick up the growth rate by the fourth quarter. Is that explicitly something that you're calling for? And, I guess, why not take a more conservative track, just given some of the surprises this quarter?
John Stauch:
I think, we have, Josh. I mean, I think, if -- when we take a look at what our new estimates are in that sell-through demand throughout the year, we are assuming taking inventory down to at or below normalized historic levels, right? It is still a growing market and is still a growing industry. And so, you'd expect inventory to actually be accelerating through this period. I think, what we wanted to do is, make sure we forecast it on the downward end. And I know it looks like Q4 is out of the norm, but we would expect our normalized patterns to continue and Q4 is usually a pretty good quarter for Pentair.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And then, I guess, just following up a little bit on Deane's question on pricing. Looking holistically at price-cost productivity, I know you kind of think about that, those three different legs of the stool. I would imagine there was some drag there from all the disruption this quarter. But thinking about that total bucket the rest of the year, how should we think about that gap closing, improving or getting worse? I would imagine something happens in the world as it pertains to rebates or pricing power, given volume. But just thinking about it holistically, should that get better or worse from here?
Mark Borin:
Yes, you hit on it. It does get better as we move through the year, which is in line with sort of how we expected it to move. Just, with the timing of when price is impacted with rebates and other things. But, as we said on our earlier guidance, we continue to believe that effectively price and inflation will offset each other. So we continue to view that as the overall way to look at the guidance and that's a full year statement, so we see that and we sort of see that starting to turn as you get into Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. And if I can just sneak one more here, more of a question, philosophically, on how you guys get impacted from a weather perspective. If I think back to 1Q of 2018, I think, some other folks in the broader construction ecosystem called out weather then in January. Was there anything in the comp that would have said, 1Q of last year wasn't particularly smooth sailing on the weather front?
John Stauch:
No, Josh. Last year's Q1 actually was one of our stronger organic growth quarters of the year. I think we benefited from some of the tax changes that occurred and demand was strong out of the gate. So I'd say, we don't think that weather had a significant impact on Q1 of 2018 at all. And usually if it happens earlier in the quarter, it's not as big of a deal, because those things can get made up. I mean, really, what we're talking about is the end of January and February was six significant weeks in a row of a consistent pattern in the states where it matters to us.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. All right. Thanks, John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brad Vanino:
Hey, good morning. This is Brad on for Jeff. Just to clarify something. In the first quarter, it seems like cash flows is particularly weak. I understand some of the abnormalities going on there. But just, on a full year basis, what's your confidence on hitting the target?
Mark Borin:
Yes, I mean, Q1 cash flow, as you referenced, is traditionally our weakest quarter. As a reminder, Q1 of last year was when we were going through this separation. So we were -- there's noise in 2018 and sort of the visibility to what a run rate level of Q1 cash flow for this separate water business would look like. So this, I think, is the -- in many respects, sort of, the new view of what Q1 looks like and we'll start to turn that in Q2 and go -- and to turn positive in Q2 and then continue that through the balance of the year. So, remain confident in our ability as we target cash flow to equal adjusted net income.
Brad Vanino:
Okay. That makes sense. And then, just on the strategic initiatives and investments you have going on. You talked about on the last call, some flexibility to kind of throttle those back, should demand kind of weaken a little bit. Just given what happened in the first quarter, have your strategic investments changed and plans for those for this year? And kind of -- does that have any kind of trickle-down impact over the longer term?
John Stauch:
No. I think we're focused on still building out a portfolio that we think has a lot of runway around organic growth. Couple of small additions that we're looking to do again on the tuck-in side, on the residential and commercial Filtration side to continue to build out our portfolio. And then from an organic standpoint, continuing to make the consumer aware of what Pentair can bring to the table. And then how we bring that through our channel partners, and how we give the consumer what they want. That's where the strategic investments are and we're going to continue to invest in high-priority areas throughout 2019.
Brad Vanino:
All right. Thanks for the color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Rebecca Yuan:
Hi, guys. This is Rebecca Yuan on for Brian. Thanks for taking the question. So aside from the weaker demand in Europe that you've pointed out, have you seen any slowdown in your end markets? And can you maybe speak to the growth trends you're seeing or any broader macro comments?
John Stauch:
No, we haven't. I mean, we did as evidenced by our particular outlooks for the year adjusted to what we've called the lower end of the ranges for some of our revenue forecasts that we could get ahead of the cost curve and work on the foundational aspects. But as I mentioned, I think we're starting to see a stronger China as we move forward here in 2019 and we think we got maybe one more quarter of headwinds in Europe. Some of the slowdown started in Q3 and Q4 last year for us in our particular markets. And overall, we think that our end markets continue to be solid and I think our position in those end markets is solid.
Rebecca Yuan:
Okay. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up for some of long-term goals that you highlighted, can you maybe give us an idea of the time frames whether it's like three years or five years?
John Stauch:
Well we'll continue to move rapidly to build out the portfolio in those strategic growth areas. I mean, yes, this is a three to five-year vision and we want to move aggressively and fast as we can to achieve that vision. But it's a combination of organic growth efforts that we're doing with marketing and sales and new product development organically as well as a series of tuck-in acquisitions that we would do over time. Can never time those and obviously we continue to try to grow the funnel, but executing them is not always within our control.
Rebecca Yuan:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Walter Liptak with Seaport Global.
Walter Liptak:
Hi, thanks. I wanted to ask a capital allocation question. The share repurchase, it looks like there was no share repurchase done in the first quarter and with the shares that you guys talked about, it looks like 80 million in the second, have you started on the share repurchase yet this quarter?
Mark Borin:
We can't really comment on the timing of when we're in the market doing share repurchases. But as I said in my comments, we're committed to the 150 million for this year and would expect to execute that in the -- from now to the balance of the year. And you're correct, we did not do any purchases in the first quarter. And generally, that's because as we talked about cash flow, we utilize cash in the first quarter and so we think it's most prudent to manage the planned buybacks in Q2 three and four.
Walter Liptak:
Okay. And with the share repurchase, can you be opportunistic with it? Could you do a bigger amount in the first -- in the second quarter? Or do you have to spread it through the rest of the year?
John Stauch:
Short answer is, yes.
Walter Liptak:
Okay. All right. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just a question on something below the top line for a change. You talked on slide 13 about optimizing the cost structure in the operational footprint and it was notable that your SG&A to sales rose quite a bit year-on-year in Q1. Is there any way that you could quantify the scale of the savings program, when we're thinking about the sort of base number for 2020? And then also looking at the sort of operating profit in Q1, the GAAP profit was about 30% lower than the adjusted segment profit. It looks like there was an asset impairment charge in there. So maybe just give us some background on that charge?
John Stauch:
Sure. I'll handle the first one and I'll let Mark handle the second. I think when we talked about going forward what our actions are I mean, the first and foremost I think making sure that our sourcing activities are connected to our business units and quite frankly, the product lines is the number one priority. Because we have to have the anticipation of what's happening in the commodities that we're buying and be able to make the determination of either cost out on the sourcing side or value-added -- value engineering on the cost side or be able to price appropriately and give our distributor partners enough heads-up that those pricings would come. The second one is the operational footprint. Some of our businesses have way more capacity than they need and that capacity might not be in the right regions. And so getting after the operational footprint is the second largest priority. The third one on the operating structure is making sure that we're adjusting our cost investments to the priorities of the company and not what we feel is the priorities of the individual product lines of the businesses. And that is a huge opportunity for us. And as Mark mentioned, we're going to right-size the areas that are affected by what we call more cyclical trends where they're not going to recover any time shortly. That's really the cost efforts. I don't want to quantify it yet, because they're fairly sizable targets internally that we expect to go after and get as a foundation for 2020. And at the appropriate time, we'll share what those benefits are. Mark you want to handle the second part?
Mark Borin:
Sure. The asset impairment items think of those as relating to the optimization and some of the actions and activities that we talked about in 2018. Part of that was exiting certain businesses. In this case, these are a couple of cost-based investment businesses. So they're not businesses that are part of what we're running as Pentair, but small investments. And we wrote those down in Q1 based on an updated view of what we would be able to sell those assets for. But it's -- so it's not something new. It's really just the continuation of some of that work that we talked about last year. And as we finalize that and get those things behind us that was an adjustment that we had to record.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks for the color. And just my follow-up would be around the top line in Flow Technologies. The core sales were sort of flattish in Q1 guided to grow 2% to 4% in Q2. It sounds like ag is still going to be weak. So maybe just talk a little bit about, how much of a reacceleration in the resi parts of Flow you expect? And what types of products were really affected by the excess channel inventories in Flow?
Mark Borin:
Sure. So maybe a couple of things. So in Flow, there's really three parts to that business the residential, and irrigation, and commercial, and infrastructure and the specialty business. So as you said specialty is -- pulls numbers down. But then we do expect to see the residential irrigation and commercial infrastructure parts of the business start to pick up as we move through the balance of the year. Some of that comes from price. So we -- a lot of the price impact that we're projecting for the year is coming from the Flow business and particularly in the residential side and then that starts to readout as we move into Q2, Q3 and Q4. And so those are the -- those would be the biggest drivers there. The residential irrigation business would have been impacted in Q1, somewhat by the channel inventory and weather and that starts to correct itself as we get into Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you, very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair.
Brian Drab:
Hey good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a point of clarification. I'm not sure that it was clear, what exactly was the weather impact on the Filtration business? And which markets were you seeing that in the months?
John Stauch:
It's just as you think about the installs of water treatment and water conditioning systems, they were affected by some of the weather patterns and those are like days, right? So we pushed -- we didn't get to do it in a day. So they pushed out their installs weeks or so. And that's why we feel that that all will be recovered in Q2.
Brian Drab:
Okay. So it just made it harder, even though these are -- and this is all primarily inside jobs, right, I mean you're installing food and beverage Filtration system, you're installing something -- it's in a factory, it's in a facility? You're just saying that the weather in general just kind of dampened -- sorry about the pun which kind of dampened that activity. Is that what you're saying?
John Stauch:
Yes, it was minor in Filtration. But yes.
Brian Drab:
Okay. Okay. And then can you quantify at all what growth or decline overall you reported in Europe and in China for the first quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean China had a recovery and was up double digit. And in Europe, we're talking about modestly down.
Brian Drab:
Okay. You broke up a little bit on my end on China. You said it was -- what you said in China?
John Stauch:
Double digits and then we were modestly down in Europe.
Brian Drab:
Got it, okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Hey guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Just a simple math question. So if I look at the guidance on Aquatic Systems before for the year and where you end that up, it seems there is eight percentage points difference, which is, I think for the year is a little bit over $80 million. And if I look at the delta for first quarter versus what you were guiding or versus what you reported, so it seems $30 million. So if I think that $30 million is a combination of a little bit too much inventory and weather that sort of implies that non-weather-related stuff is $60 million for the remainder of the year. Is that how I should think about it?
JohnStauch:
On the outer end, yes, you got it right meaning the inventory did not get worked down in Q1 as we've said. And that inventory will be worked down in Q2 and Q3. And so yes, you got it right. So the weather impact for us, you've got it quantified correctly. The rest of it is the inventory burn that we're expecting in Q2 to Q3 and using the outer end or the lower end of the projections as you do that math. So yes, you got it right.
Andrew Obin:
And I'm just struggling with the concept. So you said if you can't do pools in Q1, so you can hire people to dig pools in Q2 and Q3. Because it seems that you say there are labor constraints. And I'm just struggling to understand the concept I apologize?
John Stauch:
Yes. So again, we're talking about a couple of things. Certainly, they will do their best to work as fast as possible to build those pools in Q2 and Q3. But as I've said, we're not going to benefit from that because we have to work our inventory down through our distributors and dealer channels. And so that will recover in the industry, but because Q1 demand was so soft and the inventory did not get reduced in Q1, we are planning on reducing our inventory in Q2 and Q3 as all of that activities that you mentioned gets happening in the outer end of the market.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. Thank you so much for taking my call.
Operator:
And your final question comes from the line of Damian Karas with UBS.
Damian Karas:
Hi, good morning everyone. So a follow-up on Aquatics, you highlighted some of the areas of U.S. that were most impacted by the colder weather and the inventory destocking. Just thinking about your expectations for the further destocking over the next one to two quarters here and then what ensues. Could you give us a sense on whether you're really expecting a similar level of activity across all these regions? Or could there be some dispersion or any unique regional circumstances that you're perhaps factoring in?
John Stauch:
We're not factoring any unique dispersion or circumstances. What we're doing is trying to get below this and get to the bottom of the range. And so, we're assuming that the inventory gets worked out. Obviously, it's not perfect. The inventory is not ideal or perfectly balanced by region or all those other things. But we feel like we need to work to get this inventory out of the channel. We have a great business. It's a business that has performed historically at the upper single-digit growth range and we believe it's going to perform again to mid to upper single-digit growth range. And so what we want to do is get it right-sized from the inventory perspective, work on the demand pull to the consumer, our new product development and all our great marketing and sales activities and make this business the right business -- the great business it used to be in 2020 and beyond. That's what we're doing.
Damian Karas:
Okay, sounds good, makes sense. And just on CapEx. So you've guided that $10 million higher. Just wonder, if you can give any additional color on what led you to up the budget there and just any color on where you're planning to spend this?
John Stauch:
Yes I think we've gone out and made sure that our businesses understand that capital was important factor in driving productivity. It doesn't matter if it's not on -- it's on the software or the front-end, marketing and sales-related activities, as well as automation in the factories and capital investment in the factories to drive productivity. So just a philosophy of Mark and myself that we need to use capital to help drive productivity and we wanted to make sure that the businesses have the capital they need to do that.
Damian Karas:
Got it. Thanks for clarifying.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call over to Pentair for any closing remarks.
John Stauch:
Thank you for joining us today. We continue to invest in our prioritized growth initiatives around advancing pool growth and accelerating residential and commercial water treatment. We're driving operations, sourcing and cost-out actions where appropriate, particularly in our Flow Technologies segment. We have a strong capital structure, solid free cash flow generation and we will continue to invest in our strategy to be the leading residential and commercial water treatment company. Thank you for your continued interest. Zetania, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kathy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q4 2018 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Lucas, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Kathy, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter and full-year 2018 performance, as well as our first quarter and full-year 2019 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q, Form 10-K, and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors Relations section of Pentair's Web site. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim, and good morning everyone. Please turn to slide number four, titled Executive Summary. 2018 was a very busy year for Pentair, and one we are very proud of. We completed the successful separation of nVent to shareholders, we developed a detailed and executable residential and commercial water treatment strategy, and we overdrove our 2018 commitments despite the impact of tariffs and inflation. In addition to financial performance, we returned nearly $700 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Our cash generation remains strong, and our balance sheet is in great shape. To start 2019, we announced agreements for two strategic acquisitions that will help us advance our residential and commercial water treatment strategy. After Mark discusses our financial performance, I will speak more about these two deals. We are very pleased with what we believe was a successful 2018 for Pentair, and we continue to believe we are well-positioned for 2019 and beyond. Please turn to slide five, labeled Financial Highlights. Before turning the call over to Mark, I wanted to spend a moment reviewing some of the highlights for the quarter and the year. In the fourth quarter, we saw core sales grow 6%, and our adjusted EPS grow 15%. For the full-year, our sales grew 5%. We expanded our return on sales 60 basis points, while making a number of strategic growth investments to position us for the longer term. Adjusted EPS grew 21%, and we generated over $400 million in free cash flow. For 2019, we expect core sales to grow 4% to 5%, segment income to increase 8% to 12%, and adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.50 to $2.60 per share, an increase of 6% to 11%. Once again, we are targeting free cash flow to approximate adjusted net income. While we expect some of the headwinds we face in 2018, mostly inflation to continue, we believe we are well-positioned to deliver on our commitments once again as we anticipate consistency, predictability, and sustained performance to return to Pentair. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark to discuss the fourth quarter results and provide more details on our full-year 2019 outlook before I provide an update on our key strategic growth initiatives.
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to slide six, labeled Full Year 2018 Pentair Performance. As John mentioned, core sales grew 5% for the full-year. Our Aquatic Systems businesses led the way with robust 11% core sales growth, while both the Filtration and Flow segments contributed low single-digit core sales growth for the full-year. Segment income increased 8%, while ROS expanded 60 basis points to 18.1%. We are particularly pleased with our segment income and ROS performance for the year given the significant inflation headwinds we faced. Adjusted EPS grew 21% to $2.35 per share, which exceeded our initial 2018 guidance of $2.20 to $2.30 per share set last February. Finally, we generated over $400 million in free cash flow. With strong core sales growth, ROS expansion, and adjusted EPS growth, we were very pleased with our full-year 2018 performance. Now, turn to slide seven, labeled Q4 '18 Pentair Performance. For the fourth quarter, we reported core sales growth of 6%, ROS expansion of 40 basis points to 18.1%, and adjusted EPS growth of 15% to $0.60 per share. We will provide more color on the individual segment performance shortly. Below the line, we saw an adjusted tax rate of 18%, net interest/other expense of $6 million, and our average shares in the quarter were 174 million. As we mentioned at the beginning of the call, we bought back another 100 million of stock in the quarter. Please turn to slide eight, labeled Q4 '18 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the fourth quarter performance of our three segments. Aquatic Systems delivered another strong quarter with 13% core sales growth and 10% segment income growth. We do believe that some of our distributors likely pulled forward some sales in an effort to beat the impact of our price increases. We believe Aquatics remains well-positioned entering 2019, and its industry dynamics remain favorable. Core sales were flat in Filtration Solutions, with segment income growing 8% and return on sales expanding 170 basis points to 17.9%. Throughout 2018, we have been refocusing our filtration business to be less depended on lower margin lumpy project business and instead focused on our core component and systems businesses. Although the top line trends were less favorable than in 2018, we were pleased with the income and margin performance of this segment. Flow Technologies reported 4% core sales growth, which represented its fifth consecutive quarter of improved sales performance. The segment income performance was adversely affected by rebate activity as increased volume levels in front of price increases occurred in the quarter. Overall, Flow Technologies is entering 2019 with its price realization more in line with the increased inflationary pressures that materialized in the second-half of 2018. Please turn to slide nine, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. We are very pleased with the results of 2018 as we significantly reduced our debt levels, while returning nearly $700 million to shareholders. We ended 2018 with our net debt to EBITDA leverage at less than 1.5 times. Shortly before the end of 2018, we announced a 3% dividend increase for 2019, which will mark our 43rd consecutive year of dividend increases. We announced agreements for two acquisitions that when completed we expect to invest $280 million. Although we do see some seasonal cash usage in the first quarter each year, we believe we remain well-positioned to invest in our core businesses, look at attractive strategically aligned tuck-in or bolt-on acquisition targets, and continue to return cash to shareholders. Please turn to slide 10, labeled Full Year 2019 Outlook. Today we are introducing our 2019 outlook. We expect core sales to grow 4% to 5% which is comprised of about 3% of price and 1% to 2% of volume. We expect total sales growth of 5% to 6% with roughly 3% contribution from the recently announced acquisition, offset by 1% headwind from FX and another point headwind from divestures. We anticipate segment income growing 8% to 12% inclusive of acquisitions. While inflation is anticipated to remain a headwind, we expect price to principally offset inflation for the full-year and productivity to provide to our improved performance. We are introducing an adjusted EPS range of $2.50 to $2.60 per share, an increase of 6% to 11%. Other items embedded in our guidance include corporate expense of $60 million to $65 million, a tax rate of 20.5%, net interest/other expense of $37 million, and an average share count for the year of approximately 172 million shares. We wanted to provide some additional color on a few items. First, the increase in corporate expense is reflective of how we allocate some of our cost in addition to four quarters of our new structure as 2018 represented just three quarters given the timing of the separation of nVent last April. Next, we are guiding our 2019 tax rate to increase to 20.5%, but this requires some further explanation. Late in 2018, the IRS proposed new regulations that if approved as final could present a headwind to our current tax rate of 18%. These proposed changes are not expected to finalize until June or July if they do indeed get approved as final. However, we are factoring in a 250 basis point increase to our full-year tax rate. We expect our first quarter tax rate will remain at 18% with any true-up happening in Q2 or Q3 if and when the regulations are finalized. Finally, our estimated share count of 172 million does account for us buying back $150 million in shares for the full-year, which is consistent with our previously communicated long-term plans regarding buybacks. Please turn to slide 11, labeled Seasonality Expected to Continue. We wanted to remind everyone that our business does experience some seasonality during the year. The past two years have seen similar trends that we would expect to continue. We thought this would be a useful reminder as you think about the quarterly distribution of sales and adjusted EPS. Please turn to slide 12, labeled Q1 '19 Pentair Outlook. We anticipate first quarter sales to grow 4% to 5% with all three segments contributing. We expect Aquatic Systems to be up 4% to 6%, Filtration Solutions to be flat to up 1%, and Flow Technologies to grow 3% to 6%. Segment income is anticipated to be up approximately 2% to 5%, and adjusted EPS is expected to be in a range of $0.52 to $0.55 per share, which would represent growth of 6% to 12%. Below the line, we expect the first quarter tax rate to be 18%. Net interest/other expense of roughly $7 million, and share to be approximately 172.5 million. While the first quarters are seasonally lightest period of the year, we believe we are positioned to see our core sales growth trends continue. I would now like to turn the call back to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to slide number 13, titled Pentair Strategy Summary. We have used this page consistently in our earnings presentations to remind everyone of strategy to the leading residential and commercial water treatment company and to share with you the areas where we are investing in growth. Our focused areas of strategy remained on advancing growth in pool and accelerating residential and commercial water treatment which requires investment at the business and the enterprise level. Our approach to capital allocation remains disciplined. And we are committed to maintaining our investment grade rating, reinvesting in our most attractive core businesses and paying a competitive dividend. We also look at a balanced approach between M&A and intelligent buybacks with our M&A decisions being informed by overall valuations and the quality of assets available as well as our ability to integrate them successfully. Please turn to slide 14, labeled Two Strategic Deals. We discussed throughout 2018 that accelerating residential commercial water treatment is one of our two key strategic growth initiatives. We also discussed throughout 2018 that we are building our M&A funnel, and we are very pleased to have announced agreements for two strategic acquisitions that help us further this key growth initiative. On January 7th, we announced that we have signed agreements to acquire Aquion and Pelican Water Systems. We discussed last quarter that we are in the early innings of moving up the value change, from being a leading component supplier, to introducing smart, connected, branded products and solutions. We expect these two acquisitions to add roughly $110 million in revenue, and combined, have margins that are above the Filtration segment's average. Both of these acquisitions help us further our move up the value chain. We are really excited about Aquion bringing a national affiliated dealer network which is under the RainSoft brand. Aquion also brings a diverse line of whole home water treatment systems in addition to ozone and ultraviolet disinfection systems and internet-enabled solutions. Pelican is an exciting acquisition for us because it brings us a direct-to-consumer model through a proprietary ecommerce platform. Pelican also has a number of innovative water treatment systems and services that we'll be able to sell through all of our distribution channels. We still expect these acquisitions to close in the first quarter of 2019 subject to customary closing conditions and necessary regulatory approvals. We remain excited about our opportunity to advance our residential and commercial water treatment strategy. I would now like to turn the call over to Kathy, for Q&A, after which I'll have a few closing remarks. Kathy, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Yes, sir. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Mark, I think you commented that you thought there was a little bit of pull-forward in aquatics business. I know it's probably pretty tough to try and estimate how much that was, but any kind of color you could give there, and if you think there was any kind of pull-forward in any of the other businesses that's worth calling out?
Mark Borin:
Yes, I talked about it in the Aquatics business and also referenced a little bit in Flow as well. And if you think about it, it's probably about one to two points of growth in 2018 that then presents a headwind for 2019.
Nathan Jones:
One to two points total for the year or just that in the fourth quarter you're talking about?
Mark Borin:
For the year.
Nathan Jones:
For the year. I would also like to talk about that productivity bar that you guys disclosed, which was fairly low in 4Q and in 3Q. Can you maybe talk about what the delays are there on seeing the productivity improvement? And then I think you talked about, for 2019, price offsets, inflation and productivity drops to the bottom line, so many any discussion about what you're expecting out of productivity in 2019.
Mark Borin:
Sure. I think as you think about it amongst the three segments and then when you look at the segment performance in Q4 you can see that good performance in Aquatics and Filtration. And so really the productivity story for Q4 was driven by Flow Technologies. And they're main drivers of productivity there relate to some operational challenges in a couple of factories that manufacture large pumps. And so we saw that in Q4. The team has been focused on improving that, and we see that likely turning around in the first-half of 2019.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, so a couple of discreet things there that are dragging the productivity numbers down in the second-half, they get solved in the first-half. Any idea what we should expect out of productivity in 2019?
Mark Borin:
As we think about kind of our overall guidance for 2019, we talked about price and inflation kind of offsetting each other, and then the margin expansion coming from volume and from incremental productivity.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, thanks. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hi, John.
John Stauch:
Hey, good morning.
Joe Giordano:
Good morning. So, can you guys talk on the filtration side, I know this is a real focus for you guys. Can you talk about maybe the brand that you're building here, and as you're bringing in these new businesses you're getting out of some kind of non-core assets there as well. Can you talk about the value proposition and how it's changing and also like how consistent is the messaging around this one cohesive Pentair filtration brand, and kind of where you see this going?
John Stauch:
Clearly it's not today. And it is our goal to have a Pentair brand that represents our filtration opportunity. And these acquisitions that we bring in are helpful in that regard because we have to get close to the consumer. And the consumer is making choices, and we have to make that a brand-based loyalty program in which then we can give the whole value chain of distributions in the products to the systems to also the services that are necessary, either through our direct channel or our affiliated channel. So, it's important as we think about building it out. I ultimately think that most consumers just want water as a service. They don't necessarily care about the products or the components that they're buying. They want a solution for the zip code or the geography or the country they live in, and that's where this is all heading, Joe. And that's why we think we need to have that consumer touch and be close to the consumer to be able to bring that story forward.
Joe Giordano:
And as that kind of happens is that something that leads to like a sustainably more predictable higher margin business like consistently?
John Stauch:
That's absolutely the goal. I mean, these are -- our residential commercial filtration business today is already higher margin, but I think you mentioned the predictable and consistency part of that is the main driver. And making sure that there's more of an annuity-based view of how we service that customer over time.
Joe Giordano:
Okay, that's great. And then two kind of clarifications here, do you have any color on the margin guidance by segment into '19, and on your comment about price offsetting inflation, is that a consistent statement across all three segments as well?
Mark Borin:
That would be consistent generally across all three segments. And no, we don't have specific guidance on segment profitability for 2019.
Joe Giordano:
Is there anything with direction -- like we could do the math to get to it -- not a segment level, but is there anything you'd point out on an individual segment basis that we should take into consideration as we do that?
Mark Borin:
I think if you think about our overall segment growth of 8% to 12%, and continued strong margins in aquatics and the upside that we talked about on flow technologies businesses that productivity in Q4 turns around, I think that would kind of frame the way to think about 2019 by segment.
John Stauch:
Joe, we expect them all to improve, but we do want to maintain some flexibility for our strategic growth investments as we think about ramping up or ramping down the investment based upon how we see the organic growth. So, don't want to lock into specific targets by segment, but we're expecting them all to improve.
Joe Giordano:
And Mark, can you just get into that tax thing that you mentioned, just -- I think there's some people who aren't sure exactly what this is. So what is this proposed regulation and how does it apply to you guys? And then I'll -- thanks.
Mark Borin:
Yes, sure. I know that's a new data point. So, right at the end of 2018, the IRS published new regulations, and a lot of that related to them writing regulations around laws that were passed a year earlier. And specifically related to us, and not surprisingly part of our global structure, there were regulations specifically around the deductibility of interest in the United States, and it's those new regulations and the technical interpretation of those that applied to us, and that's where we see this headwind of 250 basis points, going from 18% to 20.5%. As I said in my prepared remarks, we've included that in our guidance for the year. The regulations are proposed right now, so they're not final. As proposed, they're effective as of January 1st, 2019, which is why we put them in our full-year guidance, but they wont actually get finalized, we don't think, until the end of June or perhaps early July. And so that's why we guided to 18% in Q1 because they wont have been finalized, so we wont implement them in Q1, and then we'll see what happens in Q2. And if they're revised or if they're kept the same as they were originally proposed, and then that'll inform the tax rate in Q2 and the true-up that would happen in Q2 to get to a full-year rate of 20.5%.
Joe Giordano:
Great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Mike.
Mike Halloran:
So, quick question here then on just underlying assumptions for the broader environment as you work your way through the year here. It seems based on the guidance that core trends are expected to be relatively stable through the year. Just want some clarification on that, and if there's anything that we should know about trajectory as we work through the year on the demand side?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean I think you read it right. I mean we're expecting about three points of price in this outlook, and we got one to two points of volume. And we're basically seeing the same core trends throughout the year, Mike. I mean as we mentioned, I think given the substantial price increases that were put into place in Q3 and Q4 we do think that distributors and dealers took advantage of buying a little bit ahead, so we'll probably expect a little slower start into Q1. And if you recall, we had a very strong Q1 last year, and we probably expect to have a stronger Q2 or 3 outlook as we did have such a great Q2. So, we're going to see that type of movement I think as we go through. But overall, core trends remain stable. We're not necessarily a new housing install, we tend to be more of the aftermarket served, and certainly in the residential commercial space we're close to 85% in the aftermarket side, and so all those trends feel pretty much the same as they were last year.
Mike Halloran:
Any regional variances you would point out that you're seeing right now?
John Stauch:
No, I mean I think we're aware, and then we're hearing that China is slower. I mean it's a good news/bad news story for us, I mean it's less than 4% of our overall revenue so we're not big enough to really matter in China. And our opportunity to continue to grow our business there is because we're not starting from a big base, so we have an opportunity to expand our revenue. So, other than that, I think Europe remains the way it generally was last year. It wasn't a huge contributory factor in '18, and we don't think it's a huge headwind in '19.
Mike Halloran:
And then just one clarification, the Aquion and Pelican acquisitions, those are assumed in your guidance, and based on the divestiture acquisition contribution first quarter versus the rest of the year, it seems like those are soon to be coming in at the beginning of the second quarter, late first quarter, is that about right?
Mark Borin:
That's right, so we're expecting to close sometime here in the back-half of the first quarter, and we've added them to guidance on that basis.
Mike Halloran:
All right, great. Thank you for your time. Appreciate it.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Patrick [indiscernible] with JPMorgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my call. Had a few questions, but maybe first just on the cadence for the year, the first quarter segment income growth of 2% to 5% versus -- 8% to 12%, I think you mentioned maybe the pull-forwards impacting the top line a little bit in the first quarter, but what's impacting the margins, is it just inflation still a drag in the first-half and it gets better in the second-half. Just curious if you could help understand the underlying factors behind the profit growth in the first quarter versus the full-year guide being a little bit lighter.
Mark Borin:
Sure, yes. John had mentioned before that Q1 last year was a really strong quarter, so that certainly the year-over-year comps are a part of that. I talked about the guidance around the corporate investment being up slightly year-over-year, and a fair bit of that comes in the first quarter, in particular because of the timing of the separation last year, and that our standalone structure was in place from May 1st going forwards. So, those are really the key drivers, the underlying operating performance is not that significantly impacted as you look quarter-over-quarter.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. That probably answers my second question; I missed the first part of the call around corporate going up so much. That's probably because of that standalone structure not being in place, so my first -- I guess you had said that, I guess, earlier?
Mark Borin:
That's right, and then just overall kind of the way we allocate to the businesses.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. And then just on interest expense. Is that just going up because of the deals?
Mark Borin:
That's right, so that includes an assumption around the interest associated with the two acquisitions.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then on tax rate, if finalized, can you just confirm the normalized rate for 2020 would be that 20.5%?
Mark Borin:
That's right, 20.5% would be our new run rate.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then are there things you can do capital structure-wise, to offset some of that, or was it kind of it is what it is?
Mark Borin:
We're always looking for opportunities to effectively manage our structure, just like any company. So, we'll -- the tax team will be looking to be as efficient as possible, but based on our existing structure, the 20.5% is our estimate for 2019 and would be our run rate going forward.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. And then sorry, one last clean up for the first quarter, that the growth you expect is you're going to get the three points of price starting in the first quarter, or does that layer on more in the back-half of the year, you start a little bit slower there?
Mark Borin:
Yes, most of the price was driven by the increases that we announced in Q3 and Q4 of 2018. And so it's pretty evenly spread throughout 2019. A little bit lower in the first quarter, and then slight ramp, but for the most part, pretty balanced.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot, guys. Good luck.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Jeff.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
So, what's informing the better growth profile in the organic for Flow Tech?
John Stauch:
Well, they had been building a backlog primarily around the commercial infrastructure, Jeff, and so, we were able to build that backlog up, and that's helping a lot in volume. We also had some buildup in the residential and irrigation side, you know, we had -- as we mentioned last year, we had one kind of global de-stocking incident that happened in the Middle East with the distributor. We switched over a system and identified that they had too much inventory. So those headwinds are gone as we look forward, and that's helping, yes.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, then just on the price cost dynamic, are you contemplating a move in the list three from 10% to 25% or how is that captured in your price?
John Stauch:
Yes, our inflation assumption includes the increase from 10% to 25% in list three that's scheduled for March 1st. So that is built into our inflation assumptions for the year.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then on the last one, just on the acquisitions, can you talk about the long-term growth rates of those businesses, and what you're kind of putting in the outlook or expecting for those businesses in terms of growth in '19?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean, we see -- you know, the Aquion acquisition being somewhere in that 3% to 5%, longer term growth range, and then we obviously see Pelican, which has been historically growing at very strong double-digits, close to 20% as being at least for the near term, the expectations that we have upon it. So it's really about how do we think about these all at the right time, you know, and after we get regulatory approvals behind us, we'll take a look at the better longer-term outlooks for these businesses.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great, thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Jeff Reive:
Hi, good morning, this is Jeff Reive on for Deane Dray. So just sticking to the deals, will the new e-commerce capabilities from the Pelican deal have any meaningful conflicts with your dealer channel?
John Stauch:
Don't expect them to, which -- it's a different segmentation of the overall consumer market, and it's very specific and targeted to areas in which they feel like they can help, you know, more ZIP code by ZIP code. So we're excited to be able to explore it deeper. Again, after we get the regulatory approvals, and we're hopeful that we can maybe take that capability and expand it and really help our dealer channels as well.
Jeff Reive:
Got it, thanks. And then maybe just more broadly, can you give us an update on your M&A pipeline?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean, we have a really well-thought-through strategy that we align with our board on, and I think it was an exhaustive global strategy that we feel really good about being aligned on, which really gives us a better visibility to the types of deals that we're looking at. So we're always looking at building the funnel. But it's also about, you know, do they meet the strategy and then ultimately, are they cultural fits and are they financial fits? And so, right now, I'd say we have a strong funnel, but what makes it to a final acquisition stage also has to get through that cultural aspect and also the financial aspects.
Jeff Reive:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brett Linzey with Vertical Core Research Partners.
Brett Linzey:
Hi, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Brett Linzey:
Hey, just want to come back to inflation. Sounds like that's an all-encompassing number with the tariffs included, you know, if I'd assume three points of price, you know, and you're going to offset commodities and inflation fully, that's about $85 million to $90 million. If you could just unbundle what is commodity inflation in that number, and then how much is tariff-related?
John Stauch:
Yes, we've been hesitant to try to unbundle the two, because there's the direct impact of the tariffs, but then there's really the indirect impact of tariffs and that's been the trick is to be comfortable identifying that. So when we think of our kind of inflation number in total, it's really the combined impact of both of those things and there's the direct impact that tariffs is not really that relevant, it's really more important to think about the total.
Mark Borin:
Yes, and also keep in mind about, you know, just a little under about 30% of that number as you do the math, next year is also wage inflation, you know, which is -- globally wages are up as well.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, that's helpful. And then filtration, just want to understand the demand backdrop there, and what you're seeing, I mean, the business showed some signs of life in Q3, softened in Q4 and the Q1 guide implies a little bit of a slow start here, maybe just a little color on demand and what you're seeing from a regional perspective as well?
John Stauch:
Yes, there's -- we have three different businesses underneath filtration. One is food and beverage. We have also a business focused on the industrial filtration side, and then the third one is our residential and commercial filtration where these two acquisitions fit. The residential and commercial has been relatively steady. It's a global business, and it's been growing in low-to mid-single digits for the last year or so. We have had a little bit of volatility as we mentioned earlier on some projects on the food and beverage side. We expect those to be behind us at the end of Q1. Don't want to continue those as an excuse, but we went out and really de-backlogged our large projects. On the food and beverage side, it really moved more to a component strategy which has also been a big lift to the margins in Filtration Solutions overall. So, once we get through Q1, we have that year-over-year impact behind us and then we are moving forward.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, great. I'll pass it along.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning. This is Rebecca on for Brian. Just following up on the filtration margins that picked up this quarter, I was wondering how of that was shifting away from the lower margin productions versus if price helped at all. And then, how we should think about the trend for 2019.
Mark Borin:
Yes, sure. And price has a smaller impact in the Filtration business overall. John just talked about those three businesses price you really see that just in the residential and commercial side of the business. So it is less about price. It is about the mix as you referenced. And then also just core productivity in segment as they have opportunities to get after some of the lower productivity and lower margin businesses and improve that. So it's less price and more productivity and mix.
John Stauch:
Yes, and sequentially we would expect the performance this year to roll in the next year. Obviously, the year-over-year impact will start to shrink as we realize that benefit of the mix in 2018.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then, just following up on that question about the ecommerce channel, can you provide a little more color on your strategy heading into 2018 in terms of the dealer channel? And then how much wholesale change do you expect for filtration in the U.S. and how you are struggling [ph] any potential customer channel conflicts?
Mark Borin:
Yes, we are after the end consumer. And we believe by being closer to the end consumer, we can bring those leads back to not only the acquisitions that we're looking at closing. And again, we need the regulatory approval to close them. But also those leads can be also served by our independent dealer channel. And I think it gives us an opportunity to give to the customer the right solution that they are looking for. And so, that's where we are going with ecommerce platform is to make sure we've got a targeted solution by ZIP code that meets the consumer needs and then ultimately bring in the right solution through all of our channels to that consumer, and we will continue to built that out over time, and we will share more information when it's available.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, thanks. I'll pass on.
Operator:
Next question comes from Damien [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
In Aquatics, could you elaborate a bit on your outlook for the 5% to 7% core growth there? I think you still have some solid price that's carrying over from the September increase. So could you maybe just talk a little bit about the drivers there, and how much recent growth investments are expected to contribute in 2019?
Mark Borin:
Sure. So you're right, Aquatics is our strongest segment from a price perspective, so price certainly makes up a big chunk of the core sales growth for Aquatics. And then the remainder are coming from volume, and I mentioned in earlier questions around the impact of the pool and so thinking of 1% to 2% impact overall for the business and a lot of that coming from the Aquatics business. So that's factored into the way we think about our volume assumption for the year.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And I wanted to ask you about China, obviously, it's been a key strategic focus area for you, could you maybe give an update on how the region performed in the quarter and what kind of growth expectations you have for China and Southeast Asia for 2019?
Mark Borin:
Yes. And it's less than 4% of our revenue, and I am not apologizing for that. It's just wise. It's going to be a strategic growth investment and why we need to get behind it and grow at a much faster rate. 2018 was a really solid year for repositioning, we were able to get four, five, new products launched here in the back half of the year and through the ministry of health approvals in China. Then we also were able to make some pretty bold moves through our distributor channel, and move more direct so that we can participate in the e-commerce platforms in China. So I think we repositioned and did all that in 2018. You know, we were lower on the growth side in Q4, you know, probably closer to low single-digits. As we head forward we're expecting double-digit growth in 2019 to continue, and we would be very disappointed if we weren't closer to 15% to 20%, because again, we're starting from a relatively low base.
Unidentified Analyst:
Right, makes sense. Thank you very much.
Mark Borin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, it's Jason on for Julian. Just one quick question on the pricing tailwind that three points expected in 2019, would the correct way to think about this be since it's contingent -- so, a portion of it is contingent upon offsetting a 25% of re-rating of tariffs…
Mark Borin:
No.
Unidentified Analyst:
That is not -- never happens, you know, the pricing could come in a little bit lower, as not all of that would be necessary to offset the rest of inflation or is that 3% sort of locked in, and you would just see the inflation side of the equation come down and you would just enjoy a nice tailwind from that?
Mark Borin:
Well, first of all, just in terms of determining price, so as I said the majority of that is from the actions that have already been taken, and then some that would -- still to be taken, but it's not going to be dependant on what happens with the status of the list three moving from 10% go 25%. And you know, how that all ultimately shakes out if and when that changes or who knows what else may happen with respect to tariffs, you know, that's yet to be seen. So right now our guidance is based on you know, the assumption that I talked about earlier. And we wouldn't expect that to change.
Unidentified Analyst:
Definitely. And then just a quick one on the core sales guidance, infiltration solutions, you've given a lot of helpful color around Q4 and the Q1 trajectory, just given the wide range of outcomes that seem to be embedded in that 1% to 4%, could you kind of just talk to what it would take maybe in terms of the underlying demand environment to get closer to that 3% go 5% on the high-end organic sales guidance, and how that sort of differs from the Q1 environment right now?
Mark Borin:
Yes, I think it's a good catch, I mean, it is our most global business and we have a wider range on Filtration Solutions because we do have more than -- you know, half of our revenue come in from outside the United States, so we see that the U.S. economy remains strong, and we feel like there's no real reason why see slowdown in Europe right now and as we mentioned earlier, we do see some volatility in China. So I think the range is there, because of its global aspects, and also, some of the industries that they're serving, food and beverage and also the industrial investments being tied somewhat to -- just industrial on oil and gas, so again there's more volatility in those spaces, and so, we just included a wider range to capture that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Understood, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Aiken with William Blair.
Joe Aiken:
Hi, good morning, just had a quick question looking at our model. Do you have any expectations for gross margin at least directionally in 2019?
John Stauch:
Yes, no, I'd say -- right, we talked about the segment income margin assumptions, and we wouldn't go beyond that and talk about the gross margin assumptions.
Joe Aiken:
Okay, got it, thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Walter Liptak with Seaport Global.
Walter Liptak:
Hi, thanks, good morning and a good year, guys. I wanted to ask about, you're sticking with this price situation and it sounds like you've got most of the price costs covered for this year, how would things play out if inflation reignites, what would be the timing on price increases and did you learn anything last year that might help you with price in 2019?
John Stauch:
Sure, I mean, we'll continue to monitor the inflationary environment, but we feel like what we've got reflected in our outlook is certainly based on what we see the landscape looks like and our pricing actions are in place. So we're going to remain nimble, but right now we think we've got the right assumptions built into our expectations.
Walter Liptak:
Right, okay. Now, I wanted to ask, the pools business, if I recall, last year -- your pool installers in not jamming them with a price increase, you know, I wonder how is the price increase, how is it accepted so far? You said there was a little bit of pull-forward, but it predominantly -- this was something that you are going -- you expect to see flow through, you're getting pushed back on some of the price.
John Stauch:
Now, the comments last year on the timing of the price increase was really related to the pool season and the hesitancy to do an early price increase that would have put a price increase in the middle of the pool season, that's disruptive to the dealers and installers, but there is a time price increase that coincides with the pool season is what we talked about and that you know -- if that doesn't, we don't get pushback from our distributor or dealer channel as a result of that, so there hasn't been any blowback because of that.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. Okay, all right, thank you.
Operator:
And there are no questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to our presenters for any closing remarks.
John Stauch:, :
Operator:
Thank you, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer John Stauch - President and Chief Executive Officer Mark Borin - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Joe Giordano - Cowen Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets Mike Halloran - Baird Steven Winoker - UBS Nathan Jones - Stifel Brian Lee - Goldman Sachs Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Brian Drab - William Blair Walter Liptak - Seaport Global Brett Linzey - Vertical Research Jason Carr - Barclays
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Pentair Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Lucas, please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Crystal and welcome to Pentair’s third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We are glad you could join us today. I am Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2018 performance as well as our fourth quarter and full year 2018 outlook as outlined in this morning’s press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company’s anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair’s most recent 10-Q, Form 10-K and today’s press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today’s webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair’s website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jim and good morning everyone. Please turn to Slide #4 titled Executive Summary. We are pleased with our third quarter as we were able to deliver results in line or better than our forecast on all of our key metrics marked by 6% core sales growth, 10% adjusted EPS growth and over $100 million of free cash flow generated in the quarter and $265 million year-to-date. All three segments contributed to the top line performance with Aquatic Systems delivering a strong 12% core sales growth in the quarter. We also used our strong balance sheet and cash flow to buyback 100 million of shares in the quarter and have purchased 400 million to the first three quarters. For the full year, we raised our core sales growth expectation by a full point to be 4% to 5% and we are still expecting ROS expansion of approximately 50 basis points to 18%. We are also raising our adjusted EPS guidance to be approximately $2.33, which reflects the third quarter performance as well as the small benefit from share repurchases in the quarter. This marks the second consecutive quarter that we have raised our expectations driven in part by continued healthy end markets as well as continued execution across our portfolio. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark to discuss the third quarter results and update you on the details of our full year 2018 outlook before I provide an update on our key strategic growth initiatives.
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 5 labeled Q3 ‘18 Pentair performance. As John mentioned, core sales grew 6%. All three segments contributed this quarter with particular strength in Aquatic Systems. We will provide more color on the performance of all three segments shortly. Segment income increased 1%, while ROS contracted 40 basis points to 17.1% in line with expectations as price increases implemented to offset inflation took effect late in the quarter. We will expand on the margin performance when discussing the individual segments. Adjusted EPS grew 10% to $0.54 per share, which was $0.02 ahead of our prior guidance. Our adjusted tax rate remained 18% and our share count came in at 175.7 million shares benefiting in part from the 150 million in shares we repurchased during the second quarter and an additional 100 million we repurchased during the third quarter. Free cash flow was strong in the quarter at $108 million and we have generated $265 million in free cash flow year-to-date, which is in line with normal seasonal patterns. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q3 ‘18 Pentair segment performance. This slide lays out the performance of our three segments. Aquatic Systems delivered a strongest performance of the year with 12% core sales growth in the quarter, income growth of 13% and ROS expansion of 60 basis points. We saw strong demand in the quarter, favorable mix and continued dealer gains. In addition, we implemented our annual price increase in September, while continuing to increase our growth investments in this important segment. We believe the outlook for Aquatic Systems remains very favorable and we continue to believe in the long-term outlook of our franchise business. Filtration Solutions returned to growth in the quarter, with core sales increasing 2%. We continue to see pockets of strength in our important North American residential and commercial markets. We saw particular strength in our niche industrial businesses, but just as important, our food and beverage business showed signs of stabilizing after first half declines. Segment income decreased and ROS contracted 70 basis points to 16%. We implemented price increases in September to help mitigate increased inflation due in part to tariffs implemented in July, but we do not expect to see the full benefits of the price increase until the fourth quarter. Flow Technologies reported its third consecutive quarter of core sales growth and it’s 5% core sales growth was its strongest performance of the year. We saw solid performance in our North American residential and irrigation business and our large pump business showed further signs of stabilization, but we would remind everyone that this is the smallest part of our Flow Technologies segment and tends to be longer cycle and therefore a bit lumpier than our other businesses in flow. Segment income was down 7% and ROS contracted 150 basis points to 15.4%. The margin performance was similarly impacted as Filtration Solutions due to the timing of inflationary pressures and the corresponding price realization. Please turn to Slide 7 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. This continues to be one of our favorite slides as free cash flow remains strong and we have significantly reduced our debt levels during the year. As we pointed out last quarter, our debt is now at a level not seen since 2010. Given the strength of our balance sheet, we believe we are well-positioned to invest in the business, look at attractive strategically aligned tuck-in or bolt-on acquisition targets and continue to return cash to shareholders. We have bought back 400 million in shares year-to-date and we would remind everyone that we have raised our dividend for 42 consecutive years. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q4 ‘18 Pentair outlook. We anticipate fourth quarter core sales to grow 4% to 5% with all three segments contributing. We expect Aquatic Systems be up 10% to 12%, Filtration Solutions up 1% to 2% and Flow Technologies to grow 2% to 3%. Segment income is anticipated to be up approximately 6%, while ROS is expected to expand roughly 30 basis points. Below the line, we expect the adjusted tax rate to be around 18%, net interest and other expense to be approximately $7 million and our share count to be around 176 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately $0.59 per share, which would be the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Please turn to Slide 9 labeled 2018 Pentair outlook. This slide is one we first introduced at our Investor Day in February and we wanted to provide an update as we enter the homestretch of 2018. Given our strong year-to-date performance, the expected overall sales number is slightly higher than our initial forecast for the year. All three of our businesses implemented price increases in September. Consistent with the second half outlook we discussed in our second quarter earnings call in July, the price implementation is essentially in line with our prior expectations and our full year outlook for inflation has not materially changed. The net result is that our full year segment income expectations have not changed and we will continue to expect to drive productivity in addition to price increases we have implemented. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled full year 2018 Pentair outlook. For the full year, we have raised our core sales growth forecast by a point and now expect core sales to increase 4% to 5%. We expect Aquatic Systems core sales to grow roughly 10%, Filtration Solutions to be up 1% to 2%, and Flow Technologies to increase 2% to 3%. Segment income is expected to be up around 8%, while ROS is expected to end the year around 18%, which would represent an increase of roughly 50 basis points. Below the line, we expect the full year adjusted tax rate to be around 18%, adjusted net interest and other expense to be roughly $30 million and shares to be around 178 million. For the full year, we now expect adjusted EPS to be around $2.33 per share and we continue to target free cash flow to approximate 100% of adjusted net income. I would like to turn the call back to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to Slide #11 titled Pentair’s strategy summary. We have used this page consistently in our earnings presentations to remind everyone of our strategy and be the leading residential and commercial water treatment company and to share with you the areas where we are investing in growth. Our focused areas of strategy remain on advancing growth in pool and accelerating residential and commercial water treatment, which requires investment at the business and the enterprise level. Our approach to capital allocation remains disciplined and we remain committed to maintaining our investment grade rating, reinvesting in our most attractive core businesses, and paying competitive dividend yield. We also look at a balanced approach between M&A and intelligent buybacks with our M&A decisions being informed by overall valuations and the quality of assets available as well as our ability to integrate them successfully. Please turn to Slide 12 labeled focused strategies. As we prioritize our growth priorities, we believe this allows us the best opportunity to drive differentiated growth in what we believe is a very attractive water quality space. I would like to give you a quick update on our progress regarding our two most important focused strategies. The first strategy is advancing pool growth, one of our biggest opportunities around automation and connected pools and products. We continue to increase our new product introductions, inclusive of smart technologies and have launched two new automation systems. Our IntelliConnect is an entry-level automation system that connects only a few existing pool products and we have also launched our next generation of our more advanced IntelliConnect platform that provides the highest level of automation for our end consumers and pool dealers. Less than 10% of the 5 million installed in-ground pools today have some form of automation system and we believe this represents a continued runway of growth where we will continue to invest. Our second key growth initiative is accelerating residential and commercial water treatment. We have conducted several consumer surveys to better understand the market, but equally important, we are engaging consumers through digital marketing to build brand strength and drive demand through our dealer network. We are in the early innings of moving up the value chain from being a leading component supplier to introducing smart connected branded products and solutions. We have made several investments in China and Southeast Asia as we see a lot of opportunities in this large market. Please turn to Slide #13. This is the slide that we publicly introduced at the EPG Conference in May of this year. We wanted to remind everyone of our long-term goals. In the current inflationary environment where price has been easier to get and assuming this continues, we would not be surprised to see core sales growth trending toward the upper end of the range if not slightly better. We are currently expecting the pricing environment, coupled with productivity to generally offset inflation and we will provide more details on the impact to 2019 guidance when we release our fourth quarter earnings at the end of January, but we wanted to remind everyone that our long-term goals have not changed. I would now like to turn the call over to Crystal for Q&A after which I will have closing comments. Crystal, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, start off with congratulations on that pricing power and pool and last quarter it was controversial at the time that you were one of the few companies to hold off on implementing price increases for this one segment, but it certainly came through. Could you give some color as to what that process was, how much price did you get, how much of it stuck, and what you think the underlying growth and pool was in the quarter?
John Stauch:
Sure, Deane and thanks for the comments and agree that the pool business certainly has the ability to control their pricing decisions and had a strong result. Pricing was in line with expectations as we have discussed before. The price went in, in mid-September. So, in Q3 when we saw small impact of that for the pool business in the Q3 quarter, but we will see the full benefit of that in Q4 and it’s in line with our expectations overall and is part of the price that you see for the full year expectation on our full year walk. In terms of their growth split between price and core growth, I think most of the growth in Q3 coming from volume rather than price, only maybe 1 point to 2 points of growth coming from price and then as that grows, about double that in Q4.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then just could you clarify the outlook for this IntelliConnect product. This seems to us to be – have the potential to be one of these revolutionary products similar to the variable speed pump that you introduced. So today what's your expectation for growth in IntelliConnect, and do you have to retrofit pools in order to implement this system?
John Stauch:
The answer to the last question is no. I mean, it is an automation system that obviously works off of WiFi or the Internet and then connects to the products to basically giving intelligent pool system, Deane. And yes, we do believe that – you're talking about 5 million installed pools and less than 10% of them today run on some type of automation capability and that automation capability provides two opportunities, one is for dealers to remotely monitor pools and manage the proper pool for – composites for people. But the other one is for the consumer themselves to interact with their pool more effectively, lighting, variable speed pumps as you mentioned, salt water pools, the chemistry. So, we see it as a revolutionary product for sure, and this one is an easier one that creates over-the-air software updates and really has a better graphic user interface capability. And its open architecture meaning it will work not only with Pentair products, but it will also work with our competitors’ products as well, which we think is also revolutionary.
Deane Dray:
Good to hear. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Deane.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
Hey, guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Joe Giordano:
So, if we look at the other non-pool businesses, how do you feel like you are with your price increases, do you think you are forward thinking enough or were they large enough to deal with your forward expectations for inflation, how do you see that kind of playing out over the next few quarters?
John Stauch:
Yes. Yes, we do – so again similar response for the other two businesses. The price kicked in, in the back half of September and the realization is consistent with expectations and it's – we see that reading out as expected in Q4. We had a little bit of pull-in in Q3 ahead of the price increase, which we had anticipated. So that reduces a little bit of the price expectation for the full-year, but overall, on a run rate basis, it's consistent with our expectations. And our views on inflation, which price was put into offset or mitigate remain unchanged as well, so you can see the full-year expectation on inflation remains about $80 million.
Joe Giordano:
And then as it relates to your China strategy, have you – have your discussions at least changed a little bit to consider what's going on trade wise and geopolitically there, and do you – is there any alterations that you need to make to how you deploy that strategy?
John Stauch:
It's a great question. I mean, we do about $160 million in China and Southeast Asia overall from a revenue stream and most of that in our filtration businesses. We still are committed to our China strategy primarily because they advanced in the way that the market is evolving, I mean, the rate of pace, they're going to put 3,000 new Starbucks stores in, there is a competitor coffee chain called Luckin doing 1,000 stores this year, 2,000 next year. These are some enormous growth rates. We also have the context of – we’re working with the Internet there and the way that people buy off the Internet and looking at two to three-hour delivery windows to the product. So, I think it's an area that we're going to continue to participate in, because we’re learning and growing and establishing a lot of the tools and principles that I think ultimately are going to work themselves back into Europe and into North America as well.
Joe Giordano:
And then last for me, it's still early days post-split, but maybe can you – John, can you just talk about maybe what are some of the biggest changes you've seen internally so far and maybe couple of examples something that's taking over a bit longer than you'd like to move forward in the direction you see?
John Stauch:
Yes, I am very impatient, so everything takes longer, but I'm very proud of the way the teams leaning in. Obviously, a great result in the quarter as evidenced by dealing with a late announcement of a tariff impact and reacting to it the best we could and managing through those expectations and we’re getting back to consistency and predictability. But what we're most excited about is we're having discussions about winning at the product line level again. We have some 30 major product lines and that's where the way you win. You differentiate your product against the competition in the customers' eyes and we're having good discussions about how to utilize technology and innovation and business model innovation to really differentiate that customer experience and that’s going to take longer time, but that’s ultimately how we are going to get back to the core organic growth that I know we can achieve.
Joe Giordano:
Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Steve.
Mark Borin:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Just on free cash flow, you guys I think are running slightly ahead of net income, I don’t know which net income you use whether it’s adjusted or GAAP or whatever year-to-date and I think fourth quarter is usually relatively strong, anything different about this year or am I just not getting the normal seasonality right?
John Stauch:
You got it, right, Steve. I mean, we are still targeting adjusted net income, cash flow to be 100% of adjusted net income and obviously we will work through the normal seasonality patterns and there is nothing really to update at this time.
Steve Tusa:
And anything unusual about the performance in the third quarter that stands out, that’s not sustainable on the cash front?
John Stauch:
No.
Mark Borin:
Third quarter was in line with expectations and we don’t see anything necessarily unusual in the fourth quarter as well.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. I don’t know if anybody asked it yet, but tariffs, just kind of give us an update on how you are thinking about that? And maybe just give us an update on – or some color remind us about your kind of sourcing structure? I think you noticed anything from China is getting it marked up, so how are you guys thinking about it into 2019?
Mark Borin:
Sure, Steve. And the overall story on tariffs and inflation in general is as I mentioned before is just the consistency with our previous expectations. So, as we look at the balance of the year, our inflation expectation remains at about $80 million, that includes all the tariffs that have been announced and implemented. So, it includes sort of the people talk about lists 1, 2 and 3 in the different sections that make that up. So that’s all reflected in our expectations, so really no change from what we talked about before as we have already touched on pricing and our expectations there. And we certainly are going to continue to evaluate the overall supply chain and look for opportunities to be able to make changes to reduce the impact of tariffs long-term as those things take a little bit longer obviously, but we are certainly looking at that. We have a factory in Suzhou and so we will evaluate what we do there and how our overall supply chain structure is organized.
Steve Tusa:
Yes. I guess just more specifically, I mean there you are only getting hit by part of this year and then there is other list, who knows 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 coming through, what do you see as of today assuming some of these things come through just using a kind of simplified view of what you are sourcing from China and then sticking some sort of an increase in cost on that, what would you expect that headwind in 2019 to be that you could overcome with productivity or whatever else you do?
John Stauch:
Yes. So, Steve just to reiterate, the 2018 – for 2018 reflects everything that we currently get out of China including direct sourcing. When we put the pricing forward on September 15 we assume that we would likely see another couple of points of inflation heading into 2019. That is probably at least a likely scenario given the fact that we are going to continue to see inflationary pressures come from all of these lists that happened. So I think right now we feel like we have got things well contained and we can only deal with what we know, Steve and if there is anything else that comes about, we reserve the right to go back with incremental price increases.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. What – sorry one last question, what is that bucket of cost that you talked about either direct or indirect coming from China?
John Stauch:
What do you mean, Steve?
Steve Tusa:
What is the total cost of the stuff you are sourcing from over there, so maybe we can just do the math ourselves?
Mark Borin:
Think of it as roughly $300 million both direct and indirect.
Steve Tusa:
Great. That’s exactly what I am looking for. Alright, thanks a lot. Great color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Yes, hi, good morning. I guess I just want to piggyback a little bit on Steve’s question here, because if we look in the third quarter, the waterfall, the inflation is a $24 million number and I know you guys indicated that it’s still in line with your expectations, but the most recent lists, the most recent 2 lists were post your second quarter earnings report and the 24 million does not seem to be yet fully loaded with inflation. So, could you give us an idea is there going to be need to go out with more pricing, let’s say in pool and have your price increases in the other two segments contemplated, what could be over $100 million number next year?
Mark Borin:
As we – as John referenced before, I mean, our expectations haven’t changed and the forecast that we have put forth of approximately $80 million reflects all the tariffs that have been announced and implemented which is there is nothing new that’s out there. This is the list that you are referring to even though they hadn’t been implemented and effective prior to our last quarter’s guidance, there was enough information out there that we had some visibility to that. And as John said, we frankly don’t know what we don’t know and so we reserve the ability and the right to be able to go back and adjust and go back for more price if necessary, but the guidance that we have for the year stands on its own and remains unchanged from what we provided previously.
John Stauch:
Just to add, Scott, as I said I mean we have put in price increases that not only reflected our 2018 expectations for inflation, but that inflation would continue. And so we are hopeful that we have got enough in there, if not we will adjust accordingly.
Scott Graham:
Okay, great. And then maybe this is a quick follow-up to that, I know that the model has been so far as an independent to sort of do the price plus productivity will offset inflation, I am just wondering you have given your answers to the above your thinking on the price increases which you have answered affirmatively that they have contemplated more inflation. Can we get to where we are price cost neutral in the first half of next year, excluding productivity just fewer price cost?
John Stauch:
I don’t think so, Scott. And I think we are counting on prices, the majority of it, but we also need productivity and keep in mind our sourcing teams are active every single day seeking alternative sourcing. So we even within the inflation numbers this year have favorable productivity and you see that in the column offsetting that, but I think we are going to need productivity and we are also going to need growth contributions, Scott, I think that’s just the environment we are in right now.
Scott Graham:
Got it. And if I could just squeeze one more in if you don’t mind and thank you for that answer. I was very interested in your comments, John about the surveys understanding the market which you and I have discussed before, how you are engaging consumers more, the dealer network the whole thing. I was just wondering if you can give us maybe a couple of win examples, things that you are really excited about that the team actually was able to monetize over the last quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think first of all, we really 3 – go across the segments. I think pool really has a great dealer intimacy. And why I mentioned the dealer, it’s the actual dealer talking to the consumer and working with the consumer. And what we are learning is that, that consumer is becoming more and more educated and as they become more and more educated we are able to create more content, because as you put your pool in or you think about your retrofits to the pool you are very excited about all of the other products that you can bring to the table. So, we are clearly getting more content through to the aftermarket and I do think that that’s a result of learning that the consumer is important in helping to influence that and stay. In infiltration, what we are learning is as you would expect, it’s not a national or global issue it’s more local. Your city and where you live, your water quality varies and obviously I have shared this with you, New York City is not a problem for water. As you start to move into other particular regions, you have challenges and getting more specific around the challenges to each region allows us to have the right products to our dealer channel to solve those issues, so very excited about your growth there. And then flow, I think we are starting to realize that we have a good brand across to what we have major brands that we are very well respected and that we need to continue to work to get those products and make those available to the end customers and we have to work through various distribution channels to do that since there isn’t a large distributor, a large dealer that covers nationally. And in China and Southeast Asia, as I mentioned, people want to buy on the Internet. They want ready-now products. They want an experience center. And I do think all of those things we’re doing in China that we’ve learned from connecting with the consumer, we’ll work that way in the North American market as well. So, thanks for asking, Scott.
Scott Graham:
Thanks a lot for that answer. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mike Halloran:
So, on the food and beverage side, you’re starting to see some stabilization there. Maybe just dig a little bit more granularly into what you're seeing in the market, why the stabilization is occurring, and how you're thinking about that as we move into the fourth quarter next year?
Mark Borin:
Yes, sure. As we’ve talked before as that business has experienced challenges and has been shrinking for quite a while, frankly, it’s gotten to a point where it's a smaller portion of the portfolio and it's really not something that that’s going to drive our overall performance. And so it's – feel like it’s sort of hit the bottom and we’re seeing some signs of life and decent order rates. And it's something frankly that hope to not have to continue talking about because it's just a small piece of the overall picture and we’re focused on – more importantly on our residential, commercial side of the business.
John Stauch:
And Mike just to remind you the market is growing and we’re growing with the market, but we have a very high value membrane and we have products that are really helpful in the overall food and beverage processing. What we are no longer doing is building the systems and the skids around them and just assembling other people's products to go forward. So that’s what really drove the decline. And we feel confident that we have a product that other people combine, assemble and put into the process and that's really where we think we should be long-term. It’s also better margins for us and better predictability and consistency as our future revenue streams. So, it was all conscious and it was all an effort that we put in this year.
Mike Halloran:
Makes sense. And then on the capital deployment side, obviously, been running the buybacks through pretty aggressively last few quarters, I know balance is what you are thinking about on a forward basis, but it takes time to build the funnel backup, how are you thinking about that M&A funnel and how are you thinking about balancing the two M&A verse buybacks, obviously dividends are a core part, but that's been pretty consistent?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think our first goal is get back to predictable and consistent results and I'm pleased that we are making progress on that. I think we've got three quarters now where we're starting to build that consistency and we're starting to also understand strategically where our best businesses are and how those businesses are positioned and we're really aligned not only as a management team, but with our Board of where we'd like to make those acquisitions, the tuck-ins and cores like basically bolt-ons. And so, I do think we're starting to build a really robust funnel and I really – I’m hopeful that we'll be able to get some things done over the next year.
Mike Halloran:
Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker with UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks. Good morning, all.
John Stauch:
Hi, Steve.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Steven Winoker:
Hey, so just on the thoughts around holding, I think you still expect ROS to be about 50 basis points up, but why not more given the additional point of growth and particularly the concentration in Aquatics. I think I – if you can just talk through the puts and takes there a little bit that explain why there's not more ROS coming in?
Mark Borin:
Sure. I mentioned it earlier. As we were coming through September, we did see some pull-in to beat the price increase, so we do have slightly less price benefiting the year than we had previously forecasted. I mean, and we're continuing to see sort of the ramp in our growth investments as we move through the balance of the year. So, when you think of those two things on balance, overall, that's where we've landed at maintaining our guidance on income.
Steven Winoker:
How much do you think that took away from, if you were to quantify the impact that you would have otherwise had?
Mark Borin:
Well, the price change was about $3 million, $2 million to $3 million, and the investment is probably couple of million dollars.
Steven Winoker:
Okay, great. And just as you guys were thinking about that growth for the fourth quarter also coming off at 6 to 4 to 5, these are exceptional growth rates. But just any thoughts on slowing mostly comps other factors here?
Mark Borin:
No, I mean, part of it is as I ventured it’s the price increase acceleration that we experienced in Q3. So Q3 was higher than expected driven maybe half of that increase was driven by the pull-in to be priced, and so we don't see that continuing into the fourth quarter.
Steven Winoker:
And John…
John Stauch:
You’re talking about a point of – we are going from 6% to 4% to 5% on the Q4. And right now, we don’t see as you ask – we don’t see markets slowing. I mean, we still feel good. I remind you Steve you know this, but in our residential commercial businesses, this is primarily an installed base that we serve. It isn’t a new housing start really phenomenon or anything. As a matter of fact we shared this before a lot of new housing starts are actually urban, which don’t utilize our water systems as much as they do out in the rural areas. So we really just believe there is a consumer pull on demand on the aftermarket channel and we see consistency so far on those outlooks.
Steven Winoker:
Great. John, that’s actually leading to my follow-up, which was within that all of this great pool growth, more than three quarters or roughly the business is usually aftermarket, I suppose. So, maybe just anyway chance you can breakdown your thoughts around how much is coming from new installation versus the existing installed base on this growth and the new product introductions are connected that you mentioned?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, we have seen – this is general rule of thumb for that business. If you take housing starts which it’s somewhere around 1.2 million housing starts and about 10% or 11% of those are generally point pool permits. And I think it’s just the way the demographics generally work out, so think about 120,000 to 130,000 new pools, which if you really think about what that’s up versus last year, it’s not ups very much, you would be talking out single digits. So, we continually work the dealers in the installed base to convince people that more larger systems and more capability in their pool is the way for them to reduce their energy costs both in LED lighting and also the efficiencies that they can get on the variable speed pump. And then as I mentioned in my comments giving them easier ways, like their iPhone and/or remote monitoring to actually manage their pool and that’s what’s driving a lot of the content and capability and so a really growing content on the pad fairly significantly and then taking more share through our dealer channel within that growing content. That’s been our [indiscernible].
Steven Winoker:
And you said converting dealers as well right?
John Stauch:
Correct. Absolutely, yes.
Steven Winoker:
Any percentage or any numbers around that?
John Stauch:
No.
Steven Winoker:
Alright. Thanks a lot.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
I would like to pickup the productivity side of the price cost productivity equation, you guys had $20 million of productivity improvements in the first half, dropped to 1 in the third quarter and I think the implication is about 5 in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about the things that have driven those gains down in the back half is there comp issues, timing of projects whatever color you can shed on that?
John Stauch:
Yes. So, I mean I’d start with as Mark mentioned that we are ramping up the growth investments. In the beginning of the year, we are identifying where we should place our bets working on our strategies and making sure we are all aligned. And as we went through the year, we are starting to see our innovation centers per technology certainly, our digital marketing, our consumer insights and putting more spending in first of all and that’s really what you are seeing is generally offset in the productivity, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. So growth investments count against your productivity number?
John Stauch:
Correct.
Nathan Jones:
Underlying that has the productivity number improved declined, stayed about the same as we have gone through the year, if you excluded the growth investments?
John Stauch:
It’s improving primarily because we started the year with significant inflationary pressures on the material side as we mentioned and then we have begun to work sourcing alternatives and opportunities which tend to take time and those have started to ramp up here as we head into the back half of the year.
Nathan Jones:
If you think a little bit longer time as a percentage of revenue, what kind of number would you expect to be able to get out in terms of productivity every year, is it 1 point, 2 points if we exclude growth investments from the equation?
John Stauch:
I mean, it’s a question that I don’t want to dance around. I mean, in a normal environment, we would we would seek for productivity less in inflation on a gross margin basis to drive 100 to 150 basis points of expansion and then we would look to offset with somewhere around 50 to 100 basis points of growth investment that’s a normalized model. Obviously, we are not in normal times. And so I think we are still thinking we can get continued margin expansion and still invest.
Nathan Jones:
And then just want to follow-up on some of these revenue numbers. I think Mark you said about half of the organic growth rate in 3Q ‘18 you thought was pull-forward from 4Q ‘18?
John Stauch:
No, that’s not true, but –
Mark Borin:
Yes, and I’ll start to clarify that. Half of the beat in the third quarter, so we were higher than expected by about $10 million, about half of that came from the pull-in [Technical Difficulty]
Nathan Jones:
Got it. That makes sense.
Mark Borin:
Yes.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Mark Borin:
Clarifying question. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Brian Lee:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe staying on the revenue topic here for a moment just, when you think about the pool business, I know this may be tough to quantify. But can you give us some sense of how much of the strength in Aquatics was just broader volume based versus how much was maybe driven by mix of new products and increased share that’s specific to you. Just trying to get a sense for maybe what the market's underlying growth is versus how much share expansion you guys are seeing right now?
John Stauch:
I mean, we think we're taking somewhere in the 1% to 2% share range and the rest would represent the market growth that we think broadly others are experiencing as well.
Brian Lee:
And then when you think about the new product introductions and sort of the vitality index, if you will, as you look into next year. Is that still the same range of target share outcomes you'd be hoping for or does that start to accelerate even further?
John Stauch:
I mean, if you took kind of where we are, if you take double-digit growth, we think about half of that is coming from new content ads, that we're going out and creating more content on what we call the pad. So, what used to be a pump and a filter gets expanded into the automation, gets expanded to the lighting, gets expanded to a chlorinator, saltwater pool, those types of things, and we think that adds about half of the growth, and then as I mentioned, the rest is share.
Brian Lee:
Okay, that’s helpful. And then maybe just last one from me, I will pass it on. The – I guess specific to China, some of your industrial peers have alluded to weaker volumes in various end-markets and the macro recently. Can you level set us a bit on your China exposure and then how you're comping there versus maybe some of the more cautious commentary that's been starting to pop up as of late?
John Stauch:
Yes, I will start with the fact that we are not as big as some of those peers. I mean, keep in mind, as I mentioned, we're $160 million total in the China and Southeast Asia region. So, we're not anywhere – some of our competitors are two times our size and those comps get harder. I also think that we are definitely growing double-digit, but we're also working through changing channels over there in China as well and making sure we're controlling our own destiny. As I said, most of the consumers want to deal directly with the Internet and then they want to connect directly with the experience center and the company themselves. And so I think our comps are a little easier from where we're starting from, but I also very excited about what the teams doing over there and I really like how we're going about winning and just the innovation and the excitement that we have for our new products and new product introductions.
Brian Lee:
Okay, fair enough. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Jeff.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, just on the – it looks like your divestiture number was about 2%. Is that – were there discrete divestitures in there, is that just run-off of product lines that you're ramping down and how does that look kind of into 4Q and into ‘19?
Mark Borin:
Yes, that really is – there’s no new discrete divestitures there, it’s the product line exits that we have talked about previously.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And when do we – when are we done seeing those?
Mark Borin:
It completes in Q4 and survive a little bit of that in the first half of the year, but then it will lap itself.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then what went on with the interest expense, it was a little bit lower and how should we run rate that going forward? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Well, we gave you the Q4 number.
Mark Borin:
Yes, I mean, we’re still thinking around $7 million, it’s become – frankly, it's a relatively small number given our overall debt levels, and so it can bounce around a little bit really mainly driven by how much interest income we had. So that's why it was a little bit lower in Q3.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, thanks, guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Jeff.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair.
John Stauch:
Hey, Brian.
Mark Borin:
Brian?
John Stauch:
Brian? Brian, mute button.
Brian Drab:
There we go. Alright.
John Stauch:
Welcome back.
Mark Borin:
Good morning.
Brian Drab:
Yes. My kids were running around in the background. So I forgot I pressed that button. I just have one question at this point, the aquaculture and agriculture end-markets, I don’t believe we are mentioned on the call here at least not significantly, I joined a little bit late. But what percentage of revenue roughly do those account for today and are you seeing any growth off the bottom here in ag and just any update on aquaculture, which I think has been good growth market for you?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean, it’s those two things total somewhere around $150 million of total revenue, so not really a big piece of the overall Pentair and not really worth mentioning to be honest, but I think ultimately those are cyclical markets and they have been performing well lately.
Brian Drab:
Okay. I will follow-up more later then. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Walter Liptak with Seaport Global.
Walter Liptak:
Thanks for taking my question and good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Walter Liptak:
I have a question about weather. We haven’t talked about that at all in this call, but there has been a couple of big storms and I wonder about any third quarter impact and if you are seeing any pipeline for renovation pools, especially in the fourth quarter?
John Stauch:
No, I will say it’s just a really thank you to our team and I am sure a lot of companies had this as well, but we do have our pool businesses in Cary, North Carolina. And I can’t thank the team enough for how they stepped in and we have lost a few days of deliveries due to the hurricane, but they were able to recover all those shipments in Q3 and did a marvelous job just protecting the plant, protecting the assets, protecting the people and then also protecting the products out, but other than that, there is no meaningful amount of revenue one way or the other that we can track to weather.
Walter Liptak:
Okay. And then in the fourth quarter, track pools that were damaged by flooding pumps filters, any of that replaced?
John Stauch:
Not on a real-time basis, no, I mean we usually expect and do see a little uptick in the aftermarket repair business there and we will see that in the order rate as it comes through Q4, but not able to track this specific amount.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. And then staying in aquatics and the price increase, I wonder if you could walk us through the pricing that you guys did and the competitive situation, do your competitors pickup pricing earlier in the year and so you are just playing catch up, how would – where is your supply chain I guess versus some of your competitors?
John Stauch:
We did our price increase on cycle, which was in mid-September. Our competitors did do some targeted price increases earlier for various reasons, but we chose to continue to stick with our standard timeline. We implemented 5.5% price increase and that’s been consistent with what we have communicated previously and it’s our expectations have been consistent.
Walter Liptak:
Okay. Are your competitors in the same kind of supply chain situation with you where tariffs impact them and they have to react?
John Stauch:
Some of our competitors have similar supply chain, some of them don’t, I mean, everybody looks a little bit different than us, but as we have talked about, it’s not just the direct impact, it’s ultimately and maybe more importantly just seeing what the indirect impact ends up being as tariff start to impact the overall pricing not just from China suppliers, but others as well.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. Alright, thanks for taking my questions.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey with Vertical Research.
Brett Linzey:
Hi good morning all.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Brett Linzey:
So just want to talk about some of the regional growth, I mean obviously, U.S. was strong mostly driven by pool, you talked a little bit about China. Could you just maybe walk around some of the major international markets you serve and then any concern or on the pace or tenor within your European business?
John Stauch:
Yes, I mean, we just generally overall you have got it, North America have been relatively strong this year, China as I mentioned has been a growth area for us. We have selectively chosen to get out of lot of geographies, which is part of the product line exits that Mark has referenced in our divestiture line, geographies, where it’s not so much a geography call, we just didn’t have scale or didn’t have the appropriate presence in those areas to compete long-term. And then Europe has not been of a robust growth environment, it’s been relatively muted most of the year. And so we don’t see that picking up in the back half of the year, but we also don’t see it declining in the back half of the year.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. And then maybe just back to growth investments, I think you had previously said this year your incremental investment was around $20 million, what have you spent year-to-date, how Q3 look and then as we look into 2019 you broaden out the China and Southeast Asia strategy, does that incremental number step up 2019 versus 2018?
John Stauch:
Yes, I don’t know, if we are just certainly not going to give it in detail by quarter, but for the full year, we expect still to be in that range for 2018. And I would say as we think about going forward, maybe $5 million to $10 million incremental next year is the way we are thinking about it for primarily digital investment and also our R&D and innovation activities we have identified this year, but not a meaningful step up from where we are currently.
Brett Linzey:
Okay, great. I appreciate the color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Jason Carr:
Hi, guys. This is Jason on for Julian. Just looking at the aquatic systems demand and taking into account that the 1% to 2% of share gain is roughly consistent with the color given on Q2 backing out the demand you saw as a result of pre-buy, does this imply given the tougher year-over-year comp in Q3 versus Q2 that there was sort of a end market demand acceleration here and then what was the cadence of that demand acceleration going to the quarter? Was it stronger in September etcetera?
Mark Borin:
No, I don’t think there was anything unusual about the end-market demand in the quarter, it was strong in September, but that’s not unusual and some of that was driven by the price increase timing. And when you are seeing the guidance for Q4 we don’t see a significant slowdown as we look at the Q4 run-rate and expectation on growth in pool.
Jason Carr:
Understood. And just going back to the pricing increases you did – there was sort of an acknowledgment that if there was further inflation sourcing in the pipeline there would be – there would have to be pricing increases put into net that out, sort of just on the pace of those increases, what would be the lag post the acknowledgment of further inflation, i.e., like 30 to 60 days or maybe a quarter in terms of how long it would take for those pricing increases to be effective?
Mark Borin:
Sure. And then maybe to clarify we said that we will continue to use price as a lever, but we didn’t say that we would have to do that in light of inflation.
Jason Carr:
Right, right, sorry.
Mark Borin:
To lever in and it would take approximately 90 days to get that price fully implemented. That being said, it’s also about 90 days for us to see the impact of increases from our suppliers as well. So what was the news about Q3 if you recall was the timing of the tariff announcement and the increase of that coming pretty quickly and not having the time to react.
Jason Carr:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
And presenters, did you have any closing remarks?
John Stauch:
Yes, I do. So, thank you everybody for joining us today. And I hope you agree that we delivered a solid third quarter and that we are demonstrating our ability to use agility and prioritization to meet our commitments. By building up a track record of meeting and exceeding commitments, we hope to earn the trust and right to pursue a compounding strategy that allows us not only achieve core growth in earnings, but to also utilize our strong cash flow and capital structure to pursue strategic targeted and accretive bolt-on and tuck-in acquisitions. Thank you for your continued interest. Crystal, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc
Analysts:
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC Brian Lee - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc. Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and thank you for standing by. My name is Lee Wei and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter 2018 Pentair Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Mr. Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President Investor Relations and Treasurer. You may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Lee Wei, and welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We're glad you can join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. And with me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Borin, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2018 performance as well as our third quarter and full-year 2018 outlook as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to John.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Jim. And good morning to everyone. Please turn to slide number 4 titled Executive Summary. Overall, we are pleased with our second quarter performance, which marks the first quarter we have reported since completing the separation of nVent. Despite a slow start to the quarter, we reported core sales growth of 3%, ROS expansion of 90 basis points to 21%, adjusted EPS grew 18% to $0.71 and we generated $364 million of free cash flow. Also in the quarter, we took some of our cash flow and bought back $150 million worth of stock or about 3.3 million shares. For the full year we have maintained our core sales growth expectation of 3% to 4%, we are still expecting ROS expansion of approximately 50 basis points to 18% and we are raising our adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $2.31, reflecting the benefit of purchased shares as well as slightly better operating performance, offset by slightly worse FX impact. With half of the year now behind us, we feel more confident in our ability to deliver earnings that should be above the high-end of the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark to discuss the second quarter results and update you on the details of our full-year 2018 outlook.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, John. Please turn to slide 5 labeled Q2 '18 Pentair Performance. As John mentioned, core sales grew 3%, with Aquatic Systems and Flow Technologies delivering growth and Filtration Solutions declining modestly. We will provide more color on the performance of all three segments shortly. Segment income increased 8%, while ROS expanded 90 basis points to 21%. Adjusted EPS grew 18% to $0.71 per share while our adjusted tax rate remained 18% and our share count came in at 178.6 million shares, benefiting in part from the $150 million in shares we repurchased during the quarter. Free cash flow was strong in the quarter at $364 million, which was in line with normal seasonal patterns. Please turn to slide 6 labeled Q2 '18 Pentair Segment Performance. This slide lays out the performance of our three segments with trends somewhat similar to what we saw in the first quarter. Aquatic Systems delivered robust 10% core sales growth in the quarter and income grew 7%, while ROS contracted 50 basis points. ROS was negatively impacted in the quarter by growth investments and inflation as the business elected not to implement any off-cycle price increases. We continue to have a favorable outlook for Aquatics and believe the business is well positioned entering the second half of the year. Filtration Solutions saw core sales decline 2% as strength in our North American residential and commercial businesses was offset by declines in our industrial and biogas product lines in the food and beverage business. Segment income for Filtration grew 7% and ROS expanded an impressive 140 basis points to 20%. This is due in part to the business mixing up as we continued to move away from lower margin project business and further remove complexity from the segment. Flow Technologies had 2% core sales growth, segment income growth of 10% and ROS expanded 130 basis points to 18.4%. North America remains strong, driven by improvement in our commercial pump business. We saw continued strength in our specialty business. And similar to Filtration Solutions, we saw improvement as we exited or walked away from lower margin business. Please turn to slide 7 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. This is one of our favorite slides this quarter as free cash flow was a very positive story. And the balance sheet has further improved as we reduced our debt levels with the cash received as part of the nVent spinoff. In fact, our debt is now at a level not seen since 2010. Considering our free cash flow generation expected for the remainder of the year and our current debt levels, we believe we are well-positioned to invest in the business, look at attractive strategically aligned tuck-in or bolt-on acquisition targets and continue to return cash to shareholders. We have bought back $300 million in shares year-to-date, and we would remind everyone that we have raised our dividend for 42 consecutive years. Please turn to slide 8 labeled Q3 '18 Pentair Outlook. We anticipate third quarter core sales to grow 4% to 5% in Aquatic Systems up 8% to 9%, Filtration Solutions up 1% to 3% and Flow Technologies growing 2% to 3%. Segment income is anticipated to be flat while ROS is expected to decline roughly 50 basis points. This is due principally to higher inflation, including the impact of tariffs and the timing of price increases we are implementing in the third quarter but we do not expect to fully read out until the fourth quarter. Below the line, we expect the adjusted tax rate to be around 18%, net interest and other expense to be approximately $8.5 million, and our share count should be around 177 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately $0.52 per share. Please turn to slide 9 labeled Second Half 2018 Adjusted EPS Outlook. As mentioned on the previous slide, we are seeing increased inflation across the portfolio. And as a result, we are implementing price increases in all three segments during the third quarter. We have announced the price increases and we are currently implementing them, but we do not expect to see the full benefit of the increases until the fourth quarter. As a result, we expect to see more pressure on third quarter margins but benefits in the fourth quarter. In addition, second half earnings are expected to benefit from the shares we bought back in the second quarter. While there is some anticipated shift in earnings from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, we are still raising our outlook for the full-year. Please turn to slide 10 labeled 2018 Pentair Outlook. This slide is one we first introduced at our Investor Day in February, and we wanted to provide an update at the halfway point of the year. The overall sales number is in line with our initial forecast for the year while segment income has moved up but the walk to get to each of these numbers has changed. We continue to look for core sales growth of 3% to 4% for the year with price being a little more favorable. FX has gone from appearing to be a nice tailwind to being modestly positive for the year. The right hand section of this slide has seen a significant increase in our outlook for inflation and we are now looking at $20 million of incremental growth investments, which is down from our initial target of $25 million. We are not dialing back the investments but the timing of some of the investments for this year were slower in the first half and we wanted to update our full-year forecast to reflect this revised timing. Please turn to slide 11 labeled Full Year 2018 Pentair Outlook. As previously mentioned, our full-year core sales growth outlook remains 3% to 4%. We expect Aquatic Systems core sales to grow 8% to 9%, Filtration Solutions to be flat to up 1% and Flow Technologies to increase 2% to 3%. Segment income is expected to be up around 8% while ROS is expected to end the year around 18% which would represent an increase of roughly 50 basis points. Below the line we expect a full-year adjusted tax rate to be around 18%, adjusted net interest and other expense to be roughly $33 million and shares to be around 178.5 million. For the full-year we now expect adjusted EPS to be around $2.31 per share and we continue to target free cash flow to approximate 100% of adjusted net income. I would like to turn the call back to John.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to slide number 12 titled Pentair Strategy Summary. This page is the same slide we showed you at our Investor Day and in the first quarter earnings discussion. The good news is nothing has changed. And all I'd like to do is remind you that we are focused on our desire to be a pure play water company, drive focused organic growth strategies and utilize our precious capital wisely to create incremental shareowner value. Regarding capital allocation, we remain committed to maintaining our investment grade rating, reinvesting in our most attractive core businesses and paying a competitive dividend yield. We will also look at a balanced approach between M&A and intelligent buybacks with our M&A decisions being informed by overall valuations and the quality of assets available, as well as our ability to integrate them successfully. Please turn to slide 13 labeled Focused Strategies. As we prioritize our growth opportunities, we believe this allows us the best opportunity to drive differentiated growth in what we believe is a very attractive water quality space. I'd like to give you a quick update on our progress regarding two of our most important focused strategies. The first strategy is advancing pool growth. During the second quarter, we launched a segmentation study to better understand the behaviors of pool consumers. We believe we made great progress in winning more dealers to allow for greater aftermarket penetration and we completed an in-depth study of how to accelerate our efforts in the expanding automation space and better penetrate the automated home platforms. Also during the quarter, we launched our next generation of automation called IntelliConnect. Our second key growth initiative is accelerating residential and commercial water treatment. In the second quarter, we kicked off a consumer segmentation study here as well to better understand the residential water needs of our end-consumers and made great progress driving dealer loyalty back to Pentair through our True Blue dealer initiative. We also have included our strategic roadmap of innovative product offerings and how to expand our service offerings in both residential and commercial water treatment. More to come in these two areas, both on the organic priorities and potential acquisitions as we continue to dial-in our clear priorities to differentiate ourselves to customers. I would now like to turn the call over Lee Wei for Q&A, after which I'll have a few closing remarks. Lee Wei, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And excuse me presenters, so we have our first question, comes from the line of Scott Graham from BMO. Your line is now open.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Scott. How are you doing?
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey, John. Good morning. Hey, Jim. So, I just really – I apologize for jumping on a couple minutes late, so I missed the early. I just want to maybe ask you a broader question. I know you've talked about and I heard you at the end here say two to three years of movement toward more of a sales model involving reaching deeper and this kind of thing. I was just wondering if you can kind of give us some gates on that, John, sort of like when do you expect to be where type thing. By the end of this year with your channel partners, what do you expect to have accomplished, by the end of next year, that kind of thing? Because obviously, there's a big opportunity here to connect more closely with customers than you have before, I know that that's what you want to do. And I'm just kind of hoping you can kind of give us how this lays out, maybe if you have any type of benchmarks, any type of metrics that you use internally to measure yourselves on this end of this year, end of next year kind of thing?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
All right. Thanks, Scott. Yeah. I mean, I just want to remind everybody we're 85 days in and I think the best way to express it is we're where we thought we'd be at this stage. I think we're really excited about our strategy. But more importantly, our commercial excellence process that we've rolled out and really utilizing the commercial excellence process to drive our prioritized growth. And so, as an example, making sure that we understand that we serve a traditional dealer channel, distribution and dealers, but we also have to influence the consumer. And so, this consumer segmentation work that we're doing is to inform us of what are the buying behaviors of the consumers that we service and how do they want to be served and then, helping our dealers run their businesses better so that they can take advantage of what those consumers want. I think in the pool business where we do roughly $900 million of revenue in pool and we have about $800 million of that in the U.S., we have a lot of scale, and we have a good offering, and we have a really good business model. We have to go through our next sets of businesses which for us would be our residential and commercial water filtration, which is just under $600 million and then, also our residential pump business which is just under $400 million and we have to have that same model, Scott. So I have high expectations for the team, clearly, but to answer your metric question, it's going to be accelerated organic growth and that's the one measurement we're trying to drive here and then, making sure that's profitable, and we're getting the same drop-throughs. So we've got other metrics. How are we doing on dealer conversions, how are we doing on turning leads into sales. The earlier indications suggest we're becoming more of a growth culture. But again, I just want to be balanced here, it's 85 days in. So it's hard to call victory on it, but I love the attitude. I love the way the team leaned in, and I am really appreciative of how they're doing it. The other thing I would tell you, Scott, is as we move to a growth culture, I was proud that the team worked the price angles the way they are. I mean, we saw some of our competition going off-cycle with price increases. We considered that. But we also thought that it would be better if we were to wait, reflect, and go on our normal cycles so that our dealers and our customers can prepare for those price increases, quote their jobs and not have to suffer the consequences of us going off-cycle. So it is hurting us here a little bit in Q3, but I'd say the long haul we think that that's going to help us out in Q4 and into next year and our customer is very appreciative of the way we responded with our price increases.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Right. And as just my quick follow up to that, one of the things that you and I talked about recently was that there's going to be a cost to this and I – certainly it's a welcome cost to get more sustainable organic on a go-forward basis, particularly given your markets are pretty positive. I guess my simple question is and I heard you say this, you want to keep the same drop-through. That's obviously a key point. So are you out there internally kind of telling the business units, hey, this is kind of if you want to spend this, you have to fund it with that? Or is that more of a corporate kind of funding?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I think the funding that we're working on is the focused priorities and the two that I took you through. And most of that is more what I call enterprise funding, meaning we all know what we're spending the money on and we have ability to measure it. We're willing to do some slightly lower margin revenue. I don't think we want to just be margin focused. But at the same time, we want to make sure that as we grow our revenue, we're not adding complexity and we're making sure that that growth leads to shareowner value. And that's critical to us. I mean, we are a public company. We're here for the benefit of share owners, and we have to serve our customers in a way that's good for all.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Got it. Thank you, John.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Scott.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano from Cowen. Your line is now open.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Joe. Good morning.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hey, John. Maybe if you could take us through some of the more obvious like immediately accretive things that you've done to kind of drive margins in business and like particularly Flow, like margins there look pretty good considering where the growth was. So, what are some of the things that you were able to put through very quickly that are seeing like kind of early results?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I'll hit it quickly and then Mark can chime in as well, but in Filtration it's about mix. As you know, we've had some really interesting businesses and we still have those interesting businesses, and we love the technology of those businesses. But we're a lot more focused on where we actually make money and where we should be spending our time and energy. And I think you're seeing that in the benefit there. In Flow, to Flow's credit and I really appreciate all the hard work by the team. We've introduced the optimization effort, getting out of some product lines and getting out of some geographies that were not only not making money, but constraining resources and challenging the resources of the SBU. So by being focused on these core businesses, we've actually been able to really improve the mix in both of those two businesses. And I think you're seeing that in the margin expansion in the quarter.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And is there anything that you'd call out kind of between the 3Q and 4Q split? I mean, generally, I think those quarters for you are fairly similar in terms of margin and it looks like maybe a bit more of an acceleration into 4Q. Is it just timing of initiatives that you're putting through? Or is there anything more specific you'd call out there?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Really the key driver of the Q4 ramp is that's when price kicks in. So price comes in at the back half of the end of Q3 and then we see it fully implemented in Q4.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
So we've publicly announced our price increases here in the last week. Those go effective mid-September-ish. For most of our businesses, that's a normal cycle by the way. And that is what Mark said, we're not getting the benefit in Q3 but we expect to receive that benefit and then some in Q4.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And then just last for me on the Aquatic side, I mean there was obviously some fear in the market given some comments made earlier by like POOLCORP. It seems like you're – not just the numbers that you put up but the guide, it seems like you've gotten through that. Does the channel seem pretty clear? And I know POOLCORP comments for the second half seem pretty robust. Like curious as to like what your view on the channel is there? And any maybe update on some of the newer technologies in that business on the automation side and how that's progressing there?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So yeah, we just had a slow start in April. I mean weather was not as we hoped it would be. And I think the team did a really good job responding and making sure we got all the shipments and all the demand serviced in the back half of the quarter. The outlook for pool is very, very strong. And I think we're reflecting that in our current guidance and demand continues to be almost full up in that business and things are progressing nicely. As far as the new products, yeah, we got a couple really good products that we're launching. We launched a new hybrid heater and we have another version of a heater that's got a high efficiency rating. So those are two products that we've been working on for some period of time. And we're really excited by IntelliConnect, which is a lower price point. And the purpose of that is to really make sure that automation gets more penetrated across pools. The penetration rate for automation across all the 5 million pools is less than 10% right now. And we really think by raising that penetration rate gives us the ability to really upgrade our products and capabilities. What's really cool about IntelliConnect is it connects to all of the other Pentair products in Filtration and pump and Flow, which gives you the ability to control those devices. But also, and I think this is the real breakthrough, it connects to all of the products in the industry if Pentair makes it or doesn't make it within pool. And we do think that that is what's necessary to really increase that penetration rate. And then it also gives us the ability to connect with the consumer and begin to think about their experiences with Pentair versus maybe their experiences with some of our competitors in the industry today. So we're very excited by that.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thanks, guys.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Mr. Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good, how about you?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
On Filtration Solutions, what was the weakness in industrial? Can you give some color on that, the projects you said were down?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, food and beverage. It's in the sustainable gas area where there's a merger that's taking place. It's not yet completed and those investments have substantially stalled. And it's also on the food and beverage space regarding beer and the de-investment in some of the global breweries that are out there. That's the weakness.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just more specifically. I'm not sure, I might have missed this. But what is now kind of the guidance on price/cost for the year?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Meaning?
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Price/cost like material inflation versus pricing?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes. So it's in the slide, Steve, I'll point it out to you. So full-year, we're getting $0.19 of price and our inflation is $0.35. It's on slide 9.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
And about two-thirds related to material and about a third of that being related to – no, I'm sorry what is it? A third to two-thirds?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Two-thirds of it is material and a third of it is labor.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And as far as the timing of these price increases, I mean, have you already kind of gone out with some of these early in the third quarter here or is it more kind of back-end loaded?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I shared that too Steve. We went out with everything (00:24:03) so far, but they're not effective until mid-September, and that's why we're...
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got it.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
... getting (00:24:08) slightly in Q3 and then, we expect to have more of a benefit in Q4 related to those price increases.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Real quick, Steve. I shared this – I think it was important that we – we listen to the channel. We listen to our customers. And our customers were asking for non-off-cycle because they're out there with quotes, especially in the pool industry, you're quoting six to nine months ahead of time. We just didn't feel it was right for them to absorb that price without having a heads up that it was coming. So we feel that this is giving 60 days' notice. Is what's appreciated by the channel, and I'm proud of the team for bringing that forward and for us exercising these price increases in a way that everybody can get behind.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I mean, is your competition not putting price through like – I mean, in HVAC, they didn't really seem to have that kind of problem of conditioning the channel. They went with kind of a mid-season – unusual mid-season price increase. Is there something going on in the industry that kind of drove that kind of behavior? I mean, it's just a little unusual to kind of ask your customers and then oblige when they say that they don't want a price increase.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I mean, they didn't say they didn't. The issue is, I mean, it's any job that was quoted – and I do know the industry you're referring to, that's more of a break and fix and other than the new construction jobs that they're working. But if you're installing a pool for instance and you quoted a customer, those price increases coughing (00:25:41) off-cycle are coming completely out of your pocket. You're not passing that along. If you have the ability to know that price increase is coming and even those significant price increases we're going forward with, you at least have the ability to know how to quote your next set of jobs and you're not losing on the job you originally have. So I don't know about the HVAC industry. We're not in it but for our industries we think we did it the appropriate way.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So, just a different industry dynamic. All right. No problem. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Mr. Deane Dray from RBC. Your line is now open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, I'd like to start with Mark and get some perspective on the free cash flow this quarter which was significantly above expectations. I think part of it, the explanation is both we should be looking at this as a first half as opposed to a second quarter. And aren't we also now seeing the Pentair as a water pure play in the pool sort of the build of inventory in the first quarter and then that gets – comes through in the second quarter. I just want to make sure that's – we're just seeing the seasonality to this and is it a first half comparison is more appropriate. Thanks.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Sure. That's right. You kind of answered the question there. A couple things, one what we're seeing now is Pentair on its own with nVent in discontinued operations. And that includes the cash associated with the separation in discontinued operations. So what you see in our numbers is the continuing operations which is really reflective of the ongoing business. And as you said, the pool business really has that big seasonal cash influx in the second quarter at the end of the second quarter. So, on a year-to-date basis, we're at about $160 million. And then we see – to get to the 100% of net income which is about $410 million, that will be a little bit more ratable in the back half. Think of it as $125-ish million per quarter to round out the year. But yes, felt very good about – with the cash that came in in the quarter and where we are on a year-to-date basis.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. And then just shifting back to the price increase and price/cost, just a couple clarifications. The first being wouldn't it make – first of all, I get why you're not – you didn't put the – go off cycle with pricing, and that makes sense to us. But the idea here is wouldn't you maybe get some pull forward as you had some dealers doing some pre-buy ahead of the price increase and wouldn't that benefit the tail end or benefit third quarter more? So, that question and then what's the impact of tariffs and how have you calibrated that?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Sure. So, maybe first just on the timing of the price increase. So, as John referenced, we announced it last week effective middle of September. And to clarify, the normal cycle of price increases is mid-September for the pool business. The other businesses are typically the beginning of the year. So, in fact, the timing of the increase in the Flow and Filtration side was accelerated for the very reasons that we talked about. And so, as we said, that will start to pick up at the end of September and then be fully in our Q4 numbers.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Tariffs?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Oh, and tariffs – sorry. Thank you. Tariffs are included in our number. And frankly, the reason why we're not breaking those out separately is we really think of tariffs as just a form of inflation. And when you look at the direct impact, that's not really the most significant piece. What we're really looking at is the indirect and the indirect-indirect, so trying to make assumptions around what do we think is going to be passed through to us, and really what are other suppliers that may not be impacted by China, how are they going to use that as an opportunity potentially to raise price to us. So, we factored all of that into our inflation assumptions for the back half of the year and for next year as we think about the price increase that we put in place here now. And we're going to stay agile and continue to look at things as they develop. And as I said, because this was off cycle in Flow and Filtration, if we need to re-evaluate further, we certainly have the ability to do that.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. And then last question is we had the opportunity a couple weeks ago to meet with Pentair at Singapore Water Week and then in Shanghai to see your big commercial beverage customer. And just reflecting what your opportunities are in China and Asia-Pacific., John, under focused strategies, it looks like maybe it didn't fit on the page, but there was a third priority earlier in your outlook that talked about the China opportunity in Asia-Pacific broadly. So, if you can just bring us up to date on that. Appreciate it.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Still a very important priority, it's more longer term. As you know, Deane, it's $160 million in China, Southeast Asia today, and we think it can grow at a very significant rate. And as you probably saw and I really appreciated you spending the time out there, we got to control our own destiny, especially around the Internet and the fact that we have to think of MSRP or list price and then work back off of that and really understand Tmall and JD.com and make sure that we've got our capabilities and we're controlling our own destinies around that. So, in the near term, I would expect a little bit of disruption as we start to manage a lot of that product descriptions and how we want to demonstrate our products in the marketplace and control the consumer and the customer experience. But in the long run, we're very excited about our growth opportunities there and really are excited about the market and our ability to serve it. We do have the right products, I think we're well-positioned, especially around food service and I'm really proud of the way the team is leaning in and driving those results. Thanks for bringing that up.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much, Mr. Dray. Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Steven Winoker from UBS. Your line is now open.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks and good morning. And John, congrats on the first quarter as a standalone. That's great.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Steve. A lot of work went into it as you know.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
I do. I do. I just want to first hit on the capital deployment comment that you made in light of debt levels also coming down fairly quickly here. As you look at those priorities at this point and we look at the share repo et cetera, is that – should there be an expectation in the investment community that given the pipeline and given where you are in sort of building the standalone right now, that the repurchase could accelerate even further?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No, Steve. I think first of all, we did. We did buyback some stock and I think we want to be agile with our capital allocation strategy. And if we see an opportunity or we feel that we're not – the value we think we could drive is not properly reflected the market. I think we're going to use our capital in that way. At the same time, I do think we have the ability to really build some great businesses here and we want to continue to build out those funnels and those pipelines of opportunities. And as those opportunities become more and more realistic, we want to be able to act upon them and then integrate them in a way that the shareowner benefits significantly from. So we're active. We're looking. We're encouraged by the direction of the funnel right now and the potential discussions that didn't seem likely six months ago and now we're starting to see more discussions happen as I think some of these owners of these properties looking forward and it might not feel as robust to them on a look-forward basis as it did just three months ago before there was maybe global supply chain challenges, to use a fancy word there. But I think the opportunity in front of us, Steve, is great. And I want to be flexible with our capital and use it in the shareowners' best interest.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Well, I was going to ask about Aquatics but given that answer, if you look at Filtration and Flow Control versus Aquatics on the M&A pipeline that's out there and given the levels of consolidation globally and all of that, I mean, should we expect activity on the Filtration side more, the Flow or how are you thinking about that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I think we should look at it as water filtration is our second biggest business next to pool and it's a business that's definitely worth investing in. I think some of the themes about getting closer to our consumer, meaning how do we connect through automation and how do we maybe connect through the services realm are a couple themes that we would think are likely to occur as we build out the M&A pipeline, Steve.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And just one other question or clarification maybe for Mark is on that tariff answer that you gave, does that mean in the pricing increases that you've already taken that you are contemplating sort of the 301 tariffs but nothing further at this point? Because it was a little unclear to me sort of which part of the tariffs you were already kind of baked in that the current price announcement that you've talked about cover, versus some of the ones that are maybe, I don't want to use the word – that are still uncertain that are out there?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So our price and our view of inflation overall is reflective of all of the tariff information that's currently out there, whether it's actually enacted or not. And frankly, the second or the third round or the most recent round that was announced a few weeks ago has very little impact to us. But we did take a look at that and feel that we have that covered, but again, very small dollars.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Steve, at some point, we'll be having tariffs on all of everything that we get out of China, right, there's very little left to tariff for.
Steven Winoker - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. Very helpful, guys. Good luck. Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Brian Lee - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just had one, most of mine have actually been covered. But on the guidance specifically, Mark, here, you're moving around the sales growth outlook for Aquatics and Filtration quite a bit here. And then you're also coming off a quarter where ROS beat by a pretty healthy margin. So wondering why there's no change here to the full-year ROS views across the board and by segment? And I guess curious, is that some conservatism for the back half given some moving pieces around price/cost and mix, but particularly for Aquatics given the better growth expectation here, was wondering how you're thinking about the ROS targets here through the back half of the year? Thanks.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Sure. As I said in my remarks, the numbers themselves are pretty similar but the way we get to the numbers are quite a bit different. So it is some of the things that you mentioned. As we talked about Q3 with inflation kicking in and the impact of tariffs coming in, but price not yet being there. That's really the biggest driver of why, as you look at margins across the three businesses and overall, why they tend to not be expanding as much as you might otherwise think. And then we see that ramp and improve a little bit in Q4. And we're continuing to invest, so I talked about the fact that in the first half, the timing and the pace of our growth investment was a little bit lower than what we had originally planned. But we're still very committed to investing for growth. And in the back half of the year, we were maintaining the growth investments in those key parts of the business that we think we have the biggest opportunities.
Brian Lee - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
All right. Thanks a lot. That's all I had.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you so much, Mr. Lee. And your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
John, you talked a little bit about exiting some low-margin revenue, I think, particularly in Filtration at the moment, but you've also talked about opportunities to do that in Flow. Can you guys comment just a little bit on what potentially the drag to your core sales growth numbers for fiscal 2018 are from voluntary exit of some of this revenue so we can get maybe a little bit of a better idea of what core sales growth really is?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. That's all – just to be clear, all of that is being handled in the divestiture, right, so it's about...
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
About a point.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
About a point. About just shy of $40 million for the year.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So those – the Filtration targets of 0% to 1% and Flow 2% to 3% are actually independent of those exited product lines?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That is correct.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Productivity goal for the year, I think is about $28 million. I know you guys had been disappointed in 2017 with productivity, though I think a lot of that resided in nVent. Is that a number that you can see accelerating as we go through 2019? Is it a number you're happy with? You think that can be improved? Or just any color you can give us on future productivity expectations?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Sure. One thing I'd remind you is that the productivity that's reflected, it's on page 10 of the presentation. That doesn't include the $20 million of growth investment, so it's really something closer to $50 million. But that said, we certainly think that there remains opportunities to get after further productivity. And as we've talked about before, that $20 million will then be embedded in the underlying numbers of the business. So it'll still be there for continued investment in the future but it won't be a year-over-year headwind.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Are there specific initiatives that you're looking at at the moment to improve productivity?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, I mean, I think we're – and just to remind you, I mean, productivity is also – and think about OCOGS, right, or manufacturing efficiency. We've got higher freight cost going through which we're working on those elements as well. And I think that we feel that we have a path to accelerate our organic growth and we're going to get that leverage on top of the existing facilities. But if you look longer term, I mean automation is a theme, more intelligent factories is a theme, I mean we've got a lot of things we're working on, Nathan. But as far as large cost out initiatives or incremental restructuring, we'd like to say that that's generally behind us.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital. You may now ask your question.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Thanks, guys.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Just to be clear on the investment. So I think you were saying $25 million and now you're saying $20 million? So, it's pretty de minimis what the deferral is?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
That's correct. Yeah.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then just on Filtration. I know you cited the industrial project weakness but it just seems like in a pretty good global demand environment, growth still seems to be problematic, anemic. So, what do you need to see to kind of start to see better growth within that business?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, just to be clear, we have an industrial filtration business within Filtration Solutions as well. And that's doing really well, obviously with the recovery of oil and gas and a lot of the global manufacturing. It's specifically the piece exposed to the food and beverage which is beer, Jeff, and also our sustainable gas offerings that also go into that industry via a couple gas management companies that are in the process of a merger. So, that's where we're really seeing that headwind. And yeah, what do we need? We need to make sure that the residential and commercial portfolio, which is done well, continues to become a higher percentage of the revenue. It continues to grow at a rate greater than it's currently growing today. So, it's the focus within the portfolio and I think the focus is help margins. You're not yet seeing that on the core growth in Filtration. We understand that and we got to get that going.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And anything in food and beverage that would indicate that starts to get better or are these gas management companies indicating that they would be picking back up into 2019?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Only in the sense that if you think about where those projects are in the whole scheme of things, you're looking at about $30 million, $40 million right now, right? So, as a percentage of the overall portfolio it's come down substantially. But it's not necessarily – I mean you take the worst case scenario of that and you'll see it's not that much of a headwind going forward.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
So, the headwinds that we saw on the first half of the year we don't anticipate continuing in the back half of the year mainly because of the comps and because as John said, the business has shrunk to a point that it's a lot smaller, so.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then just back on Aquatic I don't know if I missed this, did you see any pre-buy impact or just maybe talk about sell-in versus sell-through?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
No, no change in the normal buying habits and process. No increase in any kind of early buy or timing of orders. So, a pretty normal process in the sell-through, sell-through was strong.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you so much, Mr. Hammond. And your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Your line is now open.
Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, guys. This is Ronnie Weiss on for Julian. Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Ronnie. Good morning.
Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I know you don't want to get into 2019 guidance yet, but back on the growth initiatives but...
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Definitely not.
Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
...back on the growth initiatives, as I think about them being pushed out, should we think about these growth initiatives being a multiyear initiative? And given the volume is a little lighter than initially expected, could we see acceleration into that into next year or 2018 is the peak of what you guys are going to be putting into that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No. I mean, we set out to spend around $25 million and we knew that it would be tough to spend it all wisely given the fact that we ratably didn't get there in Q1. So, what we're doing is really reflecting where we think the full-year spend will likely be. We're running these ideas and we're a lean company which is a process rich, but we also want to be a growth culture which is much more innovative. But innovative ideas still have to run through a standard process and you have to test these ideas and we're doing that and to – before we launch a brand new product for instance, we'd like to have consumer feedback on it. That takes time. And so, we're gathering that consumer information and deciding if consumers actually want what we think they want. And once we have that, we move on to the next phase and move on to the next phase. So, yeah, do we expect to ramp this a little bit next year? Probably, as far as investment. But as Mark said, we've ramped $20 million incremental this year. If you put it on a scale next year, maybe it's $5-ish million incremental, maybe it's $10 million. So, you're still going to have a ratable impact that's positive next year as part of the year-over-year investment there. So, I'm not worried about it.
Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Understood. And then, you guys mentioned some mix benefit for Filtration. I'm just wondering if you could quantify how much of a margin uplift that was for the quarter and kind of how much it should be for the year.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Benefit is on the income side about a point, point and a half.
Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab from William Blair. Your line is now open.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Hi. Thank you. Most of my questions have been answered but I just wanted to get clarification on the pricing. I know there has been a lot of questions on pricing. But in terms of the three business segments, which price increases are going through on cycle versus off cycle, and when is the normal cycle for those price increases to go through? I know, Mark, you mentioned some were accelerated. Can you just clarify that?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Sure. And so, the Aquatic Systems business is – always follows the pool season, which is September to September. So, those price increases are normally in the September timeframe. It's the other two businesses that for the most part within the business the normal timeframe would be the beginning of the year. So, early January would be the normal timeframe. So, those two with the announcement here in July with an effective target of mid-September have been accelerated.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
And just to clarify my point there, we're hopeful we're going forward with one, that reflects what we need in 2019 as well, and we're doing that in mid-September, as Mark said. And so, that's hopeful that this stays as the pricing necessary and that those businesses can get on with that expectation in their forecast and our customers can react to that in the appropriate way.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And then just a last quick one is on slide 7, 2018 forecast D&A of $183 million. I think I just need to think about this more, but $21 million in D&A in the second quarter. How do we get to $183 million for the year? I assume that has to do everything with the split but...?
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
I'd say good catch. Wrong number. We'll update it. It's $90-ish million for the full year.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Yeah.
Mark C. Borin - Pentair Plc:
Yes.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your last question comes from the line of Walter Liptak from Seaport Global. Your line is now open.
Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask – we've talked a lot about Aquatics but I wanted to ask about market share gains. It sounds like with a more focused strategy that you may be gaining market share. This 9.5% growth is pretty good. I wonder if you could help us understand what was market growth, what was market share gains.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I mean, we're estimating that we call it incremental penetration or differentiated growth is probably somewhere around 1.5 to 2 points and the rest would reflect the general volume and the price that we're getting.
Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Okay. Good. Right. And so there was some price in there. Can you split that out volume versus price?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I think it was – oh we don't do that. No, just price is just about under a point.
Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. And then in the restructuring charges, it looks like you're done with the charges now year-to-date. And I wonder if you can help us to understand what the restructuring charges were for. Is that part of the productivity benefits that you're already receiving or is that going to show up in the back half? You talked a little bit about productivity already, I wonder if this is part of that productivity that you're talking about?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Sure. The restructuring is really the – it's the end of the program that we started last year and into this year associated with the separation of the businesses and optimizing the portfolio as we were standing up the standalone water business. A lot of that relates to some of the business exits and the product line exits that we've talked about. So those are underway and certainly, we would expect we'll drive further productivity as we move into 2019.
Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. Presenters, there are no further questions at this time. You may continue.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you. So thank you for joining us today, and I hope you agree that we delivered a solid second quarter, and we're demonstrating our ability to use agility and prioritization to meet our commitments. By building up a track record of meeting and exceeding commitments, we hope to earn the trust and right to pursue a compounding strategy that allows us to not only achieve core growth in earnings but to also utilize our strong cash flow and capital structure to pursue strategic, targeted and accretive acquisitions. Thank you for your continued interest. And Lee Wei, you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you so much, presenters. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
James Lucas - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury Randy Hogan - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer Mark Borin - Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Treasurer
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Mike Halloran - Baird Steven Winoker - UBS Nathan Jones - Stifel Brian Drab - William Blair Ronnie Weiss - Barclays Robert Barry - Susquehanna Walter Liptak - Seaport Global
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Angie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Pentair's Q1 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas. Please go ahead, sir.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Angie, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer and future President and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Borin, our future Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2018 performance, as well as our second quarter and full-year 2018 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. There will be a second conference call this morning immediately following this one to discuss the Electrical segment, first quarter performance and second quarter and full year outlook for nVent. There is a separate dialling required for that call. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Jim. And good morning, everyone. We’re very pleased to report that Pentair started 2018 on a very positive note with solid core sales growth in both of our reported segments, Water and Electrical, and also strong segment income and adjusted EPS growth. The next two slides are standard presentations reported results in the balance sheet. But given the expected imminent separation of the Water and Electrical businesses, we wanted to concentrate on this particular call on a new Pentair where the water business excluding electrical. Before I turn the call over to John and Mark to discuss the first quarter water results in the outlook for the remainder of 2018 for the new Pentair, I wanted to provide an update on the planned separation of electrical for nVent. As you may have seen earlier this week, nVent began to trade on a when issued basis. nVent has its management team and board in place and there will be a separate call following this one to discuss the results and outlook as Jim just said. This is the last earnings call for Pentair as it is constructed today. It's also my last earnings call. For over half a century Pentair has gone through many changes and the results have been stronger company with successful long-term track record. While our history has been around transformation and create shareholder value, we're excited for Pentair’s next chapter, as we create two industry leading, pure-play companies in Water and Electrical. I believe the excellent performance in the first quarter demonstrate the quality of both these businesses. For the consolidated company overall sales grew 7% and were up 4% on a core basis. Segment income of $211 million represented 13% growth and adjusted EPS of $0.88 per share was up 35% versus the comparable period a year ago and was a full nickel [ph] above the high end of our first quarter guidance. Thus, both companies have a strong foundation from which to build. And I feel confident that both companies have strong leadership in place to drive more shareholder value and they focus on their respective strategies. It's been my honor and privilege to lead Pentair for the last 17 years and I feel that Pentair and nVent will continue to be successful under John and Beth’s leadership. I'll turn the call over to John, who will focus on first quarter Water segment performance and the outlook for the full year for the new Pentair.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Not only for your 17 years or 68 quarters of distinguished leadership as CEO, but also thank you for the opportunity to lead the new Pentair. Please turn to slide number eight, titled New Pentair Executive Summary. As a reminder, Mark and I will be discussing the results, outlook and strategies for the new Pentair or the Water business, excluding Electrical. We reported core sales growth of 4% with all three of our businesses contributing. Return on sales showed solid expansion of 180 basis points to 16%. For the full year for the new Pentair, we have narrowed our guidance to core sales growth of 3% to 4%, ROS expansion of approximately 50 basis points to 18% and adjusted EPS is now expected to be $2.25 to $2.30 as our strong start to the year gives us confidence to raise the lower end of the range. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark to discuss the first quarter results and update you on our full year 2018 outlook.
Mark Borin:
Thank you, John. Please turn to slide nine, labelled Q1 ‘18 New Pentair Performance. Core sales grew 4% with Aquatic Systems leading the way with 8% percent growth Filtration Solutions core sales increased 4% and Flow Technologies core sales grew 2%. Segment income was up 21%. And as John mentioned previously, return on sales expanded to 180 [ph] basis points to 16%. Please turn to slide 10, labelled Q1 ‘18 New Pentair Business Performance. We wanted to give some additional color on how all three of our business has performed in the quarter. We expect that these three businesses will be our reporting segments after the separation. Aquatic Systems despite a tough year-over-year comparison delivered 8% sales growth, driven by strong demand for existing and new products in addition to continued dealer gains Filtration Solutions saw 9% overall sales growth and core sales grew 4%. The strength within the core residential and commercial offerings, as well as China, but equally important we saw stabilization in our industrial businesses. Segment income grew dramatically and ROS expanded significantly as we improved in many of our cost actions last year to remove complexity in the business are reading through. Flow Technologies grew its top line 5% with core sales up 2%. This marked the second consecutive quarter of core growth for Flow Technologies. Segment income grew 17% and ROS expanded over 150 basis points to 16.1%. Specialty sales, principally precision spray enjoyed strong growth in the quarter. We also saw continued gains in North America and further stabilization in our long cycle backlog. Please turn to slide 11, labelled 2018 New Pentair Outlook. Given the solid start to the year, we wanted to update the revenue and segment income walks that we provided in our Investor Day in February. We raised our core growth outlook for the year to a range of 3% to 4% which moves the bottom end of the range up a point. FX is providing a little bit more of a tailwind than we originally anticipated, but we are also exiting a few countries and product lines, as you can see on the left hand side of the slide. Our expectations for segment income in ROS have also improved following the strong start to the year. We are seeing some more inflation headwinds, but the better top line growth and productivity give us confidence in healthy ROS expansion even as we make the previously mentioned $25 million of incremental growth investments this year. Please turn to Slide 12, labelled Q2 ‘18 New Pentair Outlook. We anticipate second quarter core sales to grow 3% to 4%, with Aquatic Systems up 7% to 8%, Filtration Solutions up 1% to 2% and Flow Technologies growing 2% to 3%. Segment income is anticipated to be up approximately 5% and ROS relatively flat as the aforementioned growth investments accelerate. Below the line, we expect the tax rate to be around 18%, adjusted net interest and other expense to be approximately $8 million and our share count should be around 181 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.67 to $0.69 per share. In addition we see free cash flow improved sequentially and be in line with historical seasonal trends. Please turn to slide 13, labelled Full Year 2018 New Pentair Outlook. As mentioned previously, we now expect full year core sales to grow 3% to 4%, while our outlook for Filtration Solutions is unchanged at 2% to 4%, we have tightened the range on Aquatic Systems and now expect 5% to 6% core sales growth and Flow Technologies to grow 1% to 2%. Segment income is expected to be up around 8%, while ROS is expected to end the year around 18% percent, which would represent an increase of roughly 50 basis points. Below the lines, full year tax rate will be around 18%. Net interest and other expense to be around $33 million, and shares will be around 181 million. For the full year, we expect adjusted EPS to be $2.25 to $2.30 per share. And we continue to target free cash flow to approximate 100% of adjusted net income. I would like to turn the call back to John for more on the new Pentair strategy.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Mark. Please turn to slide number 14, titled The New Pentair Strategy Summary. This is slide that we introduced at our Investor Day in February that was designed to frame our vision for the new Pentair and prioritize our path to achieving our vision. As you can see on the left hand side of the page, we want to be the leading Residential & Commercial water treatment company. While we are organized around three businesses that we expect to be our reporting segments after the planned separation, roughly 80% of our sales of the Residential & Commercial verticals. From a geographical standpoint, we are more weighted toward the U.S. today, but we see opportunities in other parts of the world, particularly China and Southeast Asia. The middle section of the page starts with who we plan to be, a pure-play water company with healthy profitability and strong cash flow, and with annual sales of approximately $3 billion. The next areas are focused strategies, which I'll expand on in the next slide, but want to spend a moment discussing. Historically we have sometimes been distracted by doing too many things and trying to be everything to everybody. We believe focus is the key to driving long-term sustainable and predictable growth. While all of our businesses have a purpose, we have identified three key areas to focus on, advanced pool growth, accelerate residential & commercial filtration and expand in China & Southeast Asia. We intend to accelerate investments and efforts in both digital transformation and technology innovation, focused on the end consumer to accelerate these three prioritized growth strategies. Our foundation of win right values and our Pentair integrated management system gives us the tools to successfully and continuously deliver for our customers and our shareholders. The right hand side is an abbreviated look at our long-term value proposition, that starts with serving markets that are growing and focusing on driving differentiated growth and ultimately looking for tuck-in and bolt-on M&A to augment the organic opportunities. Regarding capital allocation, we remain committed to maintaining our investment grade rating, reinvesting in our most attractive core businesses that pay a competitive dividend yield. We will also look at a balanced approach between M&A and intelligent buy backs with our M&A decisions being informed by overall valuations and the quality of assets available, as well as our ability to integrate them successfully. Please turn to slide 15, labelled Focused Strategies. This is an important slide and one that I wanted to spend a moment on because this is how we plan to drive differentiated growth and hopefully be a top tier growth performer. We spent a lot of time looking at our portfolio over the past nine to 12 months and identifying the most attractive opportunities for growth and that is how we arrived at these three focused strategies. The first area is to advance pool growth. Our Aquatic Systems business has a great track record of high single digit core growth. And while the business has been successful, we believe that some incremental investments can make their growth rate even better. The two areas that we have identified are expanding our aftermarket product offering and increasing our position in a fast growing automation space. There are roughly 5 million in ground pools in the U.S. and the aftermarket and upgrade market continues to make up nearly 80% to 85% of all pool product equipment sold and used by pool owners. There is significant opportunity remaining to grow both base content and upgrades. Over a decade ago, we revolutionized pool pumps by introducing variable speed technology. A decade later, variable speed pumps still are only 20% penetrated, leaving ample room for continued growth. In addition, there are many other energy efficient products in areas like, lighting, heating and cleaning that we believe have significant runway for growth. Our investments will include technology upgrades, digital marketing campaigns, incremental sales resources and dealer tools, as well as working on value propositions and alternative channel support. Our second focused growth strategy is to accelerate residential & commercial filtration. We are a leader in residential water treatment components today and we have an opportunity to capitalize on increased water quality awareness globally, both in homes and restaurants, where we are developing innovative products and engaging consumers. We see opportunities to enhance dealer loyalty similar to what we have done successfully in our pool business. The majority of water treatment dealers are not affiliated by brand and we see an opportunity to drive higher demand of our products through a loyal dealer network. As we build out our value proposition for dealers and consumers, we believe we can generate the same type of loyalty that we have achieved in the pool business. Investments in this focused growth area will include branding, refresh value propositions, selling tools for our partners and technology advances that utilize smart capabilities. The final focused growth strategy is to expand China and Southeast Asia. While water quality is an issue globally, we have purposefully focused on China, as we have a strong presence to build from and our brand is well known. We see opportunities in both the residential and the commercial space. For consumers in China our biggest opportunity is building out our portfolio and creating products that consumers in China are demanding. On the commercial side, we have a strong presence with our global customers that have expanded to China and we have also developed many new customers through entry level food service offerings. As we increase our local manufacturing, we see opportunities to further expand our customer base outside of the Tier 1 cities and into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, as well as expanding rapidly in the Southeast Asia. As we prioritize our growth opportunities, we believe this allows us the best opportunity to drive differentiated growth in what we believe is a very attractive water quality space. I would now like to turn the call over to Angie for Q&A, after which I will have a few closing remarks. Angie, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Congrats on getting through the - getting to this point of the spin. Just on the free cash, you know anything in there that was related to the separation? I mean, it was - you know, it's usually - first quarter is usually weak, but it was definitely a little weaker than I was expecting?
John Stauch:
Yes, Steve. Certainly there is some in there in the first quarter related to separation and then you know, comparing to last year, we were down a little bit, but really when you look at it historically around down $150 million - is a little bit more of the norm. So last year was a little bit better than normal this year, is a little bit more in line with historical levels. And you know, we're not seeing any major concern through the remainder of the year with respect to hitting the target of 100% of adjusted net income.
Steve Tusa:
How much in there was from the spend from - I notice you know, working capital is particularly weak, what was in there from the spend exactly. Can you quantify that?
John Stauch:
Yes. $20 million, $30 million probably now and then there'll be more of that, that will have additional separation related cash outflows in the second quarter as well.
Steve Tusa:
How much?
John Stauch:
Another $20 million to $30 million.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. On the Ops, on price costs, you talked about a little more inflationary pressure. Can you maybe talk about what you're doing to perhaps offset that and you know, how the channel is saving [ph]
John Stauch:
We've got a strong funnel of material productivity actions that the team's been building and there's a high level of confidence that through the remainder of the year, through the productivity actions we'll be able to offset that increased inflation. So we still view productivity and price offsetting inflation…
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then one…
John Stauch:
If you look at water quality real quickly, on the full year you'll notice that inflation is slightly higher than when we gave our guidance in February. And also though embedded in there productivity is a little better and then just assuming the productivity column and we might have a little contingency as we work through the rest of the year.
Steve Tusa:
And then John, I think you guys bought back some stock in the quarter, was that you know, how do we think about the next kind of nine months as far as your capital allocation priorities. And then also interest is a little bit higher and anything going on there in that, that's it?
John Stauch:
Yeah. So we bought 150 back in the quarter and we think that was prudent. And you know, as we look forward I mean, as we mentioned, first of all we want to drive the cash and we do think we're a strong cash generator and then we want to continue to work on organic growth and maintain investment grade. And then really choosing wisely between you know, incrementally more buybacks or doing tuck-in acquisitions and that's how we think we can drive value and our capital is precious and we want to use it wisely.
Randy Hogan:
And Steve, on the on the interest question, we did see - for the full year we've increased the estimate for interest expense, think of that is higher interest rates. The timing of when we'll use or be able to use the dividend back from nVent in the separation to pay down our existing debt and then its really just you know, the imprecision in our original estimate as we were trying to balance all the moving pieces as we were heading into separation.
Steve Tusa:
Great. Thanks a lot guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
So just on capital allocation, can you one, just talk - I mean, you mentioned investment grade, but what you think the right leverage profile is for the company and how fast you think you get there through bolt-on M&A and buy backs? And just on the M&A the pipeline, can you just talk about how you’ve been building the funnel, where the opportunities lie and kind of how those align with what you talked about, John on the focused strategies? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yeah. I mean, it is long-term, I mean you know, 2 to 2.5 times leverage is you know, probably the appropriate place to be, but we're no rush to get there. We’ll be slightly under levered. And I think we want to continue to focus on organic growth capabilities and preserve and manage our potential funnel focused on areas that have historically organically grown, which you know for us is our Aquatic Systems business. And you know just continue to add value where we can. So I think - you know, I think for modeling purposes that's a good place to be, but I wouldn't certainly think we feel any urgency to get immediately up to that level. Right now I think we're really encouraged by the work we're doing to build the growth culture internally. These three strategic priorities have really got the focus of the organization and we're getting good tack and execution plans are below them and I think we're all excited about the opportunity that we can drive an organic growth.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just back on price cost, can you just talk about any - you know, what price actions you've taken, what you've announced, maybe across the different businesses to kind of get to that one point of price for the year? Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Jeff. I mean, the price actions that we've taken so far this year, nothing out of the ordinary. So it would be our normal activities that we would do heading into the season and I mean, have not done anything unusual that those actions have been taken and really nothing planned incrementally going forward. I mean, just to the inflation that you see there is a combination of wage inflation and also material inflation and you know, wage inflation was a little larger this year and the material inflation you know, we're working on to offset that with productivity as Mark mentioned earlier and you know, right now we're not overly concerned about it as we look forward.
Jeff Hammond:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Good morning, all.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Graham:
So what does price cost, if we look at it plus one and then minus two point for the first quarter. What are those numbers look like based on today's commodity prices? Because I assume you know your labor inflation. What are those numbers look like on an exit rate basis in ’18?
Randy Hogan:
I think you know, we mentioned this that the total full year ‘18 is out there, but it is a $58 million, I think…
John Stauch:
The inflation for the year…
Randy Hogan:
Inflation for the year and think of that is - roughly half of that is related to labor and the other half of it roughly material and that's what we think and that includes the current work and what we're seeing in all the commodity prices Scott.
Scott Graham:
Right. And I do see that, I guess I was just sort of wondering we had a pretty heavy dose of steel inflation in the second half of the first quarter. And I know you want to do your best here to kind of make sure that everything looks square versus what you've talked about previously. But I guess I was just assuming that price would be a little bit better than that on a full year basis or certainly as we exit the year end, it sounds like you're not saying that?
Randy Hogan:
That's true on price. And the steel side you know, really when you look at our overall purchase steel is not that significant of a component of our overall spend. And so the steel inflation that you know, maybe you've seen on the other side of the business, we haven't seen that impact us in the same way.
Scott Graham:
Got you. Fair enough. The other question I had is about you know, tariffs, obviously a lot going on both in the headlines and being executed to U.S. and China or maybe I should say U.S. versus China, even Russia a little bit here. Did you talk about - you know, have you analyzed how this could affect your business going forward?
Randy Hogan:
We have looked at it and we’ve really looked at it really in the two components, so the initial announcement focused on steel and aluminum. And as I mentioned earlier that that has a very limited impact on us for the year, so not even something that is worth mentioning. Kind of the second round, the more recent round of announced tariffs. The team has been diligently working to evaluate what that looks like for us. As I'm sure you know there's a host of product codes that have been announced are being impacted, but at the same time you know, this is – it’s evolving every day and there's a lot of ongoing review and comment that's coming in. So it's really too early to be able to tell you know, what that's going to look like and how that's going to impact us. But rest assured that the team is on top of it and looking closely to understand what the implications are, as we get closer to a timeline where it's finalized and it's more clear what it may or may not look like when it's actually put in place and we'll be able to talk a little bit more specifically about how we think that might impact us.
Scott Graham:
Understood. Thank you and nice quarter, amid a lot of moving parts in the quarter. Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you. Appreciate that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Deane.
Deane Dray:
Hey, to just start off, Randy congrats. I remember the first transformational move you made way back when you pivoted Pentair out of the woodworking tools business and into water. So the company and you have come a long way.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Deane Dray:
And then a question for John, and we saw the slide on your Investor Day, on page 15, the new Pentair Focused Strategies and look it makes a lot of sense to us to have you go down the path of your biggest strengths in Commercial & Residential and you said 80% of the business already are in those focus areas, but it still begs the question about that other 20%. And I'm not sure, you may not be in a position to disclose exactly how you're going to approach this. But just share with us your thinking, what's on the table here, because you had some really strong brand and they are valued and maybe a lot of people interested in them, but maybe you want to keep them in some sort of a run-off for a no-core segment. But just what's the thinking there in terms of how that value might get unlocked?
John Stauch:
And so half of that - half of that you could classify as more industrial facing opportunities, which is our food and beverage and our ex [ph] flow membranes play in there, Deane, and they're very important not only to our short term value creation, but also into our long-term value creation and coming back into the residential, commercial markets. Because I think you know that technology starts with the applications of the municipal side and the industrial side and then usually get scaled and gets then some traction in the commercial and residential, so very key. The other half of that would be our municipal products, primarily our pumps. And again you know, technology and the partnerships we have with different municipalities and the APCs help create some value and translate in the rest of the business. So right now it's really more about, they’re important businesses and they need to continue to grow and continue to drive cash. But the incremental investment will be geared to the 80%. That's what our messaging is both externally and internally. And I think it's resonating.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And. Just to clarify, would those be in separate segments or separate business lines that we might have some clarity as to how they're doing?
John Stauch:
They're in Flow Technologies and they'll also be in the segment called Filtration Solutions. And we'll be sharing that on an annual basis kind of what are you know, percentages of revenue are and sure as you ask us we'll be able to tell you how those market segments are doing.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then a question on Aquatics. This is an important quarter for you always because there is elements, at times where there's an early buy. You highlighted new products. What kind of expectation are you looking for contribution from new products and is there anything baked in for all the rebuilding and replacement from the hurricane damage in Texas and Florida. Is any of that included in your assumptions?
John Stauch:
Yes, that's included and you know, all in, we are having new product introductions this year like we usually do. It's all of that is included in the expectations for the year Deane. And you know, as you mentioned, Q2 is a very important quarter, right now all indications are it's going to be another great season and we're going to participate in that.
Deane Dray:
Was there any early buy that was a factor in the first quarter or is that comparable to last year?
John Stauch:
Nothing unusual from an early buy perspective in the first quarter.
Deane Dray:
Excellent. Thank you.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you, Deane.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird.
Mike Halloran:
Morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning, Mike.
Mike Halloran:
So just on the filtration and the flow tech side, two questions for both actually. So one, top line was pretty healthy on both sides. You know, obviously just got the color on what that looked like last year with the backdated information you guys gave us. But maybe talk a little bit about what the sustainability of those healthy trends look like, anything that you thought was unique to the quarter? Because we're certainly encouraging to see the revenue start coming through there?
John Stauch:
Sure. Really I think the story in both places is stabilization, as I as I talked about a little bit. So both businesses continue to focus on the things that will improve and reduce some of the variability and stabilize both topline and bottom line, removing and reducing the complexity in the businesses and focusing on the areas where we can profitably grow. So we're cautiously optimistic that in both cases we're going to see that those trends continue and see the return to topline growth and see improve profitability.
Mike Halloran:
So that the second question for both is just on the profitability side, very healthy year-over-year gains in both segment. The expectations for the year seem pretty healthy as well. Any way you can parse out what directionally what's internally driven, what’s price cost, what volume related just to help understand what the sustainability looks like and then also understand what the drivers are, specifically…
John Stauch:
Yeah. As Mark mentioned, there's a big mix benefit here. I mean, when we - when we go after the large projects in filtration which have been a nuisance to you guys, as well as us, they don't bring any real value to the bottom line. So by not growing those areas we actually do get a mix pick up like. The second one inflow, I mean, the reducing of the complexity as well, I mean, we had a lot of under scaled product lines globally and by exiting those and you know, optimizing the portfolio we're seeing the benefit of what the residential, commercial drop-throughs are. So I think it's a focused portfolio on both around the things that we really honestly think we can differentiate against competition and differentiate our consumer’s eyes. And then we're benefiting from that growth.
Mike Halloran:
Make sense. And then last one here, just making sure I understand the impact from the divested businesses that you guys talked about or the product launch shutdowns. What's the segment income impact? I'm guessing relatively negligible otherwise you would have pointed it out, but just curious and how that flows through?
Randy Hogan:
That's right. The segment income impact is small, so it really did reference back to what John just said, it's part of a focused optimization strategy to really exit the things that are - that are unprofitable and we don't believe we can be successful and so that's why we didn't call it out separately.
Mike Halloran:
Make sense. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Congratulations.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker with UBS.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks. Good morning. Congrats on the separation guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks. We’re getting there.
Steven Winoker:
You're always there. So listen, just first on flow tech, why 1% to 2% on the guide given you had the uptick to 2% I mean, maybe it's just so close. I shouldn't worry about it. But is this any kind of deceleration though for the rest of the year. I looked at the comp, I don’t think that really explained it, just little color for that, just conservatism?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, there's no there's no messaging there, its no - there's no deceleration. It's just as I said earlier cautiously optimistic and you know, trying to stay, not get too far out over our skis and we'll see how the rest of the year plays out before we call it a success.
Steven Winoker:
And you mentioned long cycle backlog improving, a little color there would be helpful?
Randy Hogan:
The point there is that after years of kind of bouncing around and declining, it's stabilized, we're seeing a relatively strong order rates and the backlog stabilizing as we look forward.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And restructuring $6 million in the quarter I think, but no more for the rest of the year. I wasn't sure if that was total anyway, but just maybe a little perspective you know, given kind of what you're seeing, given the separation all these other things going on that you think there's no more restructuring for the rest of the year or is this just kind of you know, a little color there would be helpful?
Randy Hogan:
Sure. So think of the restructuring is all being tied into the optimisations and some of those the product lines of business exits that John referenced earlier. And so while we didn't necessarily indicate that we've guided to any more restructuring in Q2, I do anticipate there will be some in Q2. But what we're really focused on - and that restructuring again it's associated with the separation and the activities around setting up the two separate businesses to be successful going forward. So I see some more in Q2 but then after that we can expect that to taper off and not anticipating anything in the second half of the year.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And John, one for you on Aquatics, you know, another great quarter in terms of growth here from the business, but if you – you know, a lot of other businesses who have focused tended to kind of under-invest in various pieces and finally find these great opportunities when they start investing again. Your point around focus here in advancing growth in aftermarket and automation, I mean, were there as great as it's been in terms of performance as much as this kind of contributed to helping the other businesses when they've had troubles for recent years. Have there been areas where you would have liked to have seen more dollars flow that are kind of pent up and now you're getting to do that. Or is this just a case of normal course of focusing growth?
John Stauch:
Well, I think, first of all the former, right. I mean, we have our best business that often is - unfortunately became the cash cow for funding some of those non-prioritized areas of business that we’re talking about. So is allowing them to invest where they think the opportunities are. On the automation side, we are - we have a great product on the high end of the market, but not everybody can afford the high end automation products. So it's about serving the mid-market and the entry level of automation and we think we've got a great product there, that's going to be introduced in the short run. And then also making sure we got a high efficiency heater, which we just launched this year. So both the technology and a new product introduction, as you know those things need to be nurtured in the early quarters of launch and we also think that we have to build our brand at the consumer level, we're really well-known at the dealer level. And we like to market ourselves direct to the consumer to make sure we're taking advantage of all the different aftermarket opportunities that we would have.
Steven Winoker:
Okay, great. I’ll let it go. Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
The question on operating leverage and so I'm looking at slide nine here, you got $24 million of volume growth and then $20 million of income growth from growth price acquisitions. So if I knock [ph] the $5 million of price out, there you've got $58 million on $24 million of volume or incrementals that are in the low 60s. Is that the right way to think about it? Just on volume growth how much did mix impact that and how should we be thinking about that kind of incremental over the longer term?
John Stauch:
I think the long-term incremental is closer to 45 days and all in. And I remind you guys that you know, we had a tough project challenge last year and we call that out last year and that was a help this year. But beyond that you know, 45-ish to 50 that's our drop-throughs. And then how do we invest wisely goes into the productivity bucket.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. That's helpful. Then on the product line exits business divestitures. How much of that is - I'm just getting out of these businesses - I can actually sell this for some cash. Is there going to be much of cash flow back to you from here or is this just exiting markets and can you give us any detail on what kind of marketing products –product launch that you're going to be exiting?
John Stauch:
Sure. It's really the focus is getting out of product lines or markets that are underperforming. So I wouldn't anticipate that there's any significant cash that comes in. We're certainly not giving the businesses away by any means. But you know, given the nature of the businesses and the size it's not it's not something that we're seen as a big uptick in cash. For us it's small geographies that we don't feel that we can - that we've got the scale to be able to be competitive, so exiting businesses in Brazil in Russia in South Africa, places like that and then small product line, product line in Australia, a few other smaller product lines, things that we wouldn't have talked about before. But think of them as distractions that you know, pulled resources away from the focus on what are the priorities in the areas that we think we can really double down on and do better. And so the intent was to get those behind us all again as part of this process of separating and standing up to new businesses and creating a water business that we feel can be successful going forward. So - and those things are all underway and we anticipate that they'll be completed over the course of the next couple of quarters.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair.
Brian Drab:
Hi. Good morning. Brian Drab from William Blair. Two questions. One, basically the same question one for the Aquatic segment and then same question for Filtration. The growth in Aquatic obviously off to a very strong start, you're forecasting you know, its bit about 8% growth again 7.5% growth for the second quarter within 5.5 for the year. So you know, it implies a deceleration from 8% growth in the first half to about 3% in the second half. So I wonder if you could talk about why that would be?
John Stauch:
No real reason. I mean, if we continue trends it will be better, but we’ve got to see how Q2 comes out and then we'll adjust accordingly as the year unfolds.
Brian Drab:
Okay. So sort of a similar mentality to what you're forecasting for the flow tech, it seems like the theme here is that there is some conservatism in the in the second half guide?
John Stauch:
Well more we have to see to make a determination.
Brian Drab:
Okay. And then on the filtration side you know, just doing that same exercise looking at what you know first quarter results, second quarter guide, here you’re going from 4% growth down to 1.5 and then you know, if you take the full year guide into account then it reaccelerates back to you know 3 plus in the second half of the year. You know what's happening in the second quarter. And then you know, what drives that rebound in the second half of the year? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Right now it's just year-over-year comparisons in Q2, Q3 and Q4. We generally took the Q1 upside and moved it the year and we haven't adjusted anything yet in Q2, Q3 and Q4 until we see how the seasonality unfolds in Q2.
Brian Drab:
Okay. John, than you very much.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Ronnie Weiss:
Hey. Good morning, guys, Its Ronnie Weiss on for Julian.
Randy Hogan:
Hi, Ronnie.
Ronnie Weiss:
Of the $25 million of growth investment, how much of that came in Q1 and then can you walk through how that trends through the year and what the payback timing on that investment spend looks like as we go forward here?
John Stauch:
Yeah, if you were to put it linear by quarter, we spent a couple million less than that linearization in Q1 and it ramps up as we head into Q3 and Q4.
Ronnie Weiss:
Okay, great. And then going back to the inflation point, I was wondering if you could quantify or bucket out you know, what came from raw mats, what came from labor inflation, maybe there were some great inflation there as well. And you know, how those three buckets look for the year?
Randy Hogan:
Think about it by half - half of that inflation is labor, half is material. No real significant change in freight. And then think of that consistently throughout the year.
Ronnie Weiss:
Okay. That’s all I had. Thanks, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Barry with Susquehanna.
Robert Barry:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, Robert.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Robert Barry:
Just curious another take on the tariff question about what you're seeing in the ag end market any impacts there from kind of uncertainty around tariffs?
John Stauch:
Yes, so as Mark mentioned, I mean, there's tariff one which is steel aluminum, is really nominal impact to us for the year and that's focused into this forecast or factoring in this forecast. As far as the next round of tariffs as Mark mentioned, we're grinding through all the different codes and the products and you know, trying to explore what the impact to us would be and the actions would be and we're not prepared to share anything on that at this moment.
Randy Hogan:
I think, the thinking of it from a market perspective, we have a global ag business, so if the market moves from one place to the to the other the business can pick that up, regardless of whether it's here or in other geographies.
Robert Barry:
Got it. You also had called out precision spray. Can you just remind us how big that business is and what in particular caused it to outperform this quarter?
Randy Hogan:
We've got about a $100 million of revenue annually in which we create precisions spray. We have an OEM relationship where we've been really driving our nozzles onto the OEM side and then we also are getting good aftermarket lift in that business. So it's a share and creating new products and those new products create value to the farmers.
Robert Barry:
Got it. And then just finally the divestitures, is that having a material impact on one mix in helping the ROS this year or will it?
Randy Hogan:
As John talked about that, that's part of the reason why we've mixed up is because we’ve exited through divestitures of product line exit, so some of the lower - lower performing parts of the business.
Robert Barry:
The 10 basis point change since the Analyst Day is that…
Randy Hogan:
Basically think of really no income impact on the revenue that is highlighted there.
Robert Barry:
Got it. Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of Walter Liptak with Seaport Global.
Walter Liptak:
Hi, thanks. Good morning. Congratulations, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks.
Walter Liptak:
I want to ask about, you know, on the growth strategies slide 15, should we think about you know you've got more in - more focused programs in filtrations, I mean, you've got more spending on new products going on there are these you know, somehow weighted by segment?
Randy Hogan:
I think in the filtration side take that as a global business and a global opportunity, so yes there is more innovation and technology required there. There's also today we don't go to the consumer with our brand. So there's some brand investment required. So I think you're thinking about it correctly.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. And then if you can just refreshes on timing of when you think you'll get benefits from the incremental spending and how will that look in terms of growth rates?
Randy Hogan:
I think, we’ll start to get benefits here in the second half. But I mean, will - it will be generally rounding error as you think about differentiated growth and we hope to build over time to getting a predictable and consistent incremental 1% to 2% of differentiated growth over the long haul from these three activities.
Walter Liptak:
Okay, great. And then just a couple of kind of housekeeping things. What's your expectation for R&D spend this year and corporate expense?
John Stauch:
$55 million for corporate and roughly 3% of sales for R&D.
Walter Liptak:
Got it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you. Randy Hogan Okay. Thank you for joining us today and I hope you have heard our excitement for the new Pentair that is expected to be completed by April 30th. As a pure-play water company we believe we'll be well positioned to benefit from strong secular trends. We are driven by the Pentair integrated management system and we have a proven and capable management team in place. One of the things we like most about our portfolio of businesses is our large and installed base. This allows us an opportunity to drive differentiated offerings for our customers across all of our businesses. Finally, we have a strong capital structure. Our free cash flow generation is robust. We plan to continue to be disciplined with our precious capital. Thank you for your continued interest. Angie you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Certainly. Thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.
Executives:
James Lucas - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury Randy Hogan - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer Beth Wozniak - SVP and President, Electrical
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Mike Halloran - Baird Scott Graham - BMO John Walsh - Vertical Research Nathan Jones - Stifel Josh Pokrzywinski - Wolfe Research Brian Drab - William Blair Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Karenna, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Pentair's Q4 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury you may begin your call.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Karenna, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2017 earnings call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter 2017 performance, as well as our first quarter and full-year 2018 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Jim. I’d like to thank everyone for joining us today. 2017 was an exciting year for Pentair’s who saw organic growth return, strong margin expansion, robust cash flow as usual and the announcement of plan to separate our Water and Electric businesses into two publicly traded companies. We had two goals in 2017, first, to deliver on our 2017 commitments, and second, to prepare to stand up two independent companies. We accomplished both and believe the momentum we have exiting 2017 will continue into 2018. Our top line continue to gain momentum, driven by improving end markets and also by growth investments in both of our businesses. We saw very strong margin expansion in the fourth quarter and for the full year. I'll discuss the specifics around this in just a moment. We’re also introducing our 2018 outlook today, which is approximately $4 per share for the full company, expecting double-digit EPS growth once again. The $4 per share represents approximately $2.25 per share from Water and roughly $1.75 per share from Electrical for the full year. John will discuss the outlook in more detail later in the call. We remain on track to spin our Electrical business in the second quarter and are targeting April 30th for completion of the spin. 2017 was the year that's our predictability return to Pentair and we believe that both Water and Electrical are well positioned as we approach our separation into two focused growth companies. Now let’s turn to slide 5 for discussion of our full year 2017 results. In 2017 we saw adjusted core sales increased 2%, which excludes the impact in 2016 of three large jobs in our Electrical business and one large job in Water’s that did not repeat. We saw the growth rate increase throughout the year, particularly within Electrical, as industrial end markets continue to recover. Segment income increased 7% for the year and return on sales expanded an impressive 100 basis points to 18.2%. We achieved these results due to the cost actions we took in 2017 read through and positive leverage from sales hit the bottom line, all while still making growth investments in the business. Adjusted EPS grew 16% and our free cash flow was over $600 million. This was a 100% of adjusted net income when excluding a one-time tax payment. Overall we were very pleased with our results in 2017 and we’re optimistic that this path of improvement is sustainable. Now let’s turn to slide 6 for discussion of our fourth quarter 2017 results. Our fourth quarter results showed strength across almost all financial metrics. Adjusted core sales grew 4% in the quarter with Water up 3% and Electrical growing 5%. Segment income increased 11% and return on sales expanded 80 basis points to 18%. Although material inflation remains a headwind, we continue to drive productivity and pricing actions to help offset the impact. Adjusted EPS grew 19% and met our guidance of $0.93. Free cash flow was over $200 million in the quarter. So we ended the year on a positive note indeed. Let's turn to slide 7 for a look at Water's performance in Q4. Our Water segment delivered adjusted core sales growth of 3% and 6% growth overall. Segment income grew 15% and return on sales expanded 160 basis points to 19.2%. Our Water business delivered margin expansion of over 100 basis points every quarter in 2017 due to strong productivity and improved product mix. We don't expect this rate of margin expansion to continue, but we believe the cost structure is right and mix should remain favorable. Filtration solution saw core sales declined 2%. It remains a tale of two stories, our residential and commercial filtration sales which represents nearly two thirds of the business remains strong, especially in food service. These are higher margin businesses and are a contributing factor to the positive mix comment made earlier. The smaller process business continued to be hampered by low global diesel activity and muted spending in the beverage industry. Although we've been disappointed with the top line performance of that part of filtration solutions in 2017, we expect the business to face easier comps in 2018 and we believe the higher margin residential and commercial business is well positioned to keep growing as we continue to invest in this very attractive space. Flow technology saw the top line grow for the first time all year, as core sales were up 4%. We saw broad based strength across this business for the first time in quite some time, with agriculture, residential and commercial all up. Our smaller engineered pump business saw some short cycle recovery and the longer cycle backlog continues to improve, which you believe foretells improvements in 2018 and 2019. Aquatic systems ended the year on another strong note with core sales up 5% in the quarter and delivering 7% growth for the full year. We saw normal early buy activity and overall demand remained strong, as we continue to gain ground from advanced product adoption and ongoing dealer gains amidst to market ops – optimism. Now let’s move to slide 8 for a look at Electrical’s performance in Q4. Adjusted core sales grew 5% in the quarter and were up 7% overall. Segment income grew 6% and margins were down modestly, as price and productivity were not enough to offset inflation. We expect material inflation to continue, there's a roadmap to productivity accelerating in 2018, while price headwinds moderate. Enclosures core sales grew 8% in the quarter and the strength was broad based. The uncharacteristic productivity shortfalls are isolated to Enclosures. Recent plant closures and a distribution center relocation resulted in some near term delivery challenges compounded by very strong demand. We see this demand remaining strong and expect the issues that impacted productivity in 2017 to abate in the first half of 2018. With the stability of these capacity investments and a strong outlook, we believe Enclosures is poised to stabilize margins and grow income in 2018. Core sales declined 3% in thermal, but this was due solely to the top line headwind in the three large energy jobs last year in Canada that we outlined at the outset of the year and I mentioned earlier. Excluding these large jobs, thermal grew once again on both the small project and product side of the business with particularly strong sales in the industrial MRO business. Even more positive is that the business dramatically improved its margins in 2017. As a result of its realigned cost structure and better overall mix from higher margin product sales, making this an even more attractive business for Electrical. Electrical & Fastening Solutions saw core sales increased 7%, as commercial remained strong and infrastructure showed growth for the first time all year. More important price cost within EFS has gotten back to a more favorable position than we saw at the beginning of the year. Now please turn to slide 9 for an update on our planned separation. Before turning the call over to John to discuss the financial outlook in more detail, I wanted to provide an update on our planned separation. We made tremendous progress preparing to stand up two companies in 2018. The nVent Form 10 has been filed and the review process is ongoing. The leadership teams for both Pentair and nVent are now complete and the new teams are coming together well. Enterprise separation activities, such as finance, treasury and IT are all on or ahead of schedule. As we prepare for the separation we expect that both capital structures determined by the end of the first quarter. We're looking forward to sharing our excitement for the prospects of both companies at the Investor Day as we're hosting in New York on February 13. There are both management teams will present their strategies and discuss their futures in more detail. We remain excited for Pentair's next chapter as we create two industry leading pure play companies in Water and Electrical. We strongly believe that both companies are well-positioned for long-term growth and value creation with the scale and strength to control their own destinies. The increased focus of both companies should help to raise the execution even further and drive higher differentiated growth. We believe that our performance in 2017 has demonstrated our ability to better forecast our business and execute against our commitments. Both companies can become appreciated for the jewels that I believe they are. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 10, titled balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the year with our balance sheet in the best position in over two years. Our ending debt balance was $1.4 billion, which does not include just over $100 million of cash on hand at the end of the year. Our free cash flow into the year was over $600 million and represented 94% of adjusted net income. However, when excluding a one-time tax settlement payment from a prior year in 2017 free cash flow once again equalled adjusted net income. Our ROIC continued to improve and ended the year at 11.6%. Please turn to slide 11 titled 2018 outlook. Today we are introducing our 2018 adjusted EPS outlook for all of Pentair of approximately $4 per share, comprised of core sales growth of 2% to 4% and margin expansion of roughly 20 basis points. Embedded in our guidance is corporate expense of %100 million. Interest expense of $50 million and an effective tax rate of 18%. While we recorded a fourth quarter charge of roughly $85 [ph] million related to US tax reform, actually a gain of $85 million related to US tax reform. We believe the expanded - the expected 18% go forward tax rate to be an improvement over our current 20% tax rate and sustainable. The share count for 2018 is expected to be 183 million shares, inclusive of a completed share buybacks and before any incremental repurchases. While we have not yet finalized the capital structure of both companies heading into the separation, we continue to target investment grade metrics for both companies and our interest expense forecast reflects this target. We are also introducing 2018 adjusted EPS guidance for Water or RemainCo of $2.20 to $2.30 per share, on core sales growth of 2% to 4% percent. While we continue to make growth investments, we believe return on sales should expand approximately 40 basis points. I would remind you this follows a 140 basis points expansion in 2017. Corporate expense for Pentair RemainCo should approximate $55 million and interest expense is expected to be around $20 million. For Pentair Electrical or nVent, we are introducing 2018 adjusted EPS guidance of a $1.70 to $1.80 per share, based on core sales growth of 2% to 4%, flat return on sales, corporate expense of $45 million and interest expense of $30 million. Both companies will have more details on their 2018 outlook at the upcoming investor days on February 13 in New York City. While 2017 was a year of many changes for Pentair, both businesses have seen improving fundamentals and improving growth rates. As a reminder, the key rationale of the separation was to create two focused growth companies, which would require some dedicated growth investments in 2018, which should result in improved top line growth, EPS expansion and robust cash flow to be allocated in a disciplined manner to create share owner value. Please turn to slide 12 titled seasonality present in both businesses. We wanted to remind everyone that both businesses, particularly Water do experience some seasonality during the year. The past two years have seen similar trends that we would expect to continue. We thought this would be a useful reminder as you think about the quarterly distribution of sales and income for both businesses. Please turn to slide 13 titled Q1 2018 outlook. We are targeting that the first quarter should represent the last time we will report earnings as one company. With Q1 as a launch point for both companies, we are estimating core sales growth to 3% in both businesses for the first quarter. Segment income is expected to increase about 6% and return on sales is anticipated to be flat at 15.5%. Also we are expecting a tax rate of 18%. Net interest of around $13 million and shares to be roughly 183 million. Overall adjusted EPS is expected to be up over 20%. We exited 2017 continuing to build top line momentum, and while we continue to make growth investments in both Electrical and Water, Electrical’s also correcting its productivity issues and dealing with significant inflation challenges. We believe both businesses are positioned to deliver strong overall results, while preparing to stand up as two well positioned industry leading companies. I would now like to turn the call over to Karenna, after which Randy will have a few closing remarks. Karenna? Please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Okay. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
John Stauch:
Morning, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
So first of all just on kind of the top line trajectory in ’18, you know, your growth this quarter was okay, but not great in the context of the economy. I mean, I think 2% to 4% seems you know, reasonably conservative. Is there anything you know maybe in the Electrical business that you'd want to point out that you know could potentially be an upside surprise you know into next year, whether it's Enclosures or anything else?. Maybe just talk about the profile of some of the sub-segments as you set up in the next year, especially in Electrical?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, I think - I think that our outlook is realistic, but there's more upside than downside. I mean, we have - a lot of people calling synchronous growth. First time I've seen in 30 years. The markets are good for gaining momentum in Electrical, specifically we've got some the disappointing execution in Enclosures that we have. We've got that stabilized, it’s not productive yet, but now it's stabilized. I would hope that we could gain even more share and get back our rightful share that maybe we lost a little bit of it in Enclosures…
Steve Tusa:
So how fast - so how fast do you think the Enclosures market is growing?
Randy Hogan:
I don't have that number right in front of me, but I'd say…
John Stauch:
High singles.
Randy Hogan:
Yeah.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So you think that it's possible to kind of - if that trend line slows maybe a tad next year you think it's possible to kind of work your way into that. You know something above mid single digits at some point here in the near term as those issues get remedied?
Randy Hogan:
For Enclosures, yes, yes.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And what exactly are the issues again?
Randy Hogan:
You know, we had a number of plant moves – just a consolidation of a distribution center that we started in 2016, it took a little longer to get them done. And then the market took off and that's just the additional demand just basically overwhelmed the moves. They weren’t stable. So we're getting to the end of that, that's why the first quarter outlook is what it is.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then just on the margin side of Electrical, you guys give you know, pretty good bridges as far as you know price inflation, et cetera. Can you just give us a little bit of color on how we get to the you know, margin you're guiding to for next year with regards to Electrical and if you are not kind of prepared to do that maybe just a little bit of color on what you're assuming on kind of the you know the price cost side there?
Randy Hogan:
Let me give you an overview and then Beth will go into it in more detail on the 13th, I think it's fair for her to let her do that. But basically we were very cautious on price while we were having these delivery challenges because of the operational faux pas. And so price – price is still going to be a headwind in the first part. And we're not counting on productivity in the first you know, five months or so, four months of the year…
Steve Tusa:
And inflation - and inflation?
Randy Hogan:
Kind of run rate continues…
Steve Tusa:
For Electrical?
Randy Hogan:
In the fourth quarter we didn't get any productivity.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then one last question, your ForEx up 1% what rate is that based on?
John Stauch:
Roughly a $1.20, the euro. You know, obviously lots of currencies, Steve, but that’s the main one.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Deane.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Hey, maybe start with John, if you could give us some insight into the puts and takes in tax reform, you can count us among the people that were pleasantly surprised to see you actually benefiting more than what we expected. So on top of this whole separation, you also had to flow through tax reform. But just give us a sense of how it turned out that it's as favorable as it is.
John Stauch:
Yeah. So I mean, I think when the legislation emerged we thought we'd - just like you did probably thought we'd have a slight headwind and a couple of things went favorable for us. One is there's less of a border adjustment tax impact on us, you know, US manufacturing tax than originally assumed and then also we were able to carry forward our deferred tax assets related to debt and debt restructuring for an infinite period of time which allows us to utilize those in the future. Those are the two main changes.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then going back to the Water discussion in Randy's prepared remarks, and I'm not sure if Randy answered this or John, but the idea of the mix being more favorable on residential and especially on foodservice's side remained strong, and Randy said where you look to invest in this business going forward. So what are the kinds of opportunities for investing? Is this internal growth or are these acquisitions?
Randy Hogan:
Well, I think you know we'll talk about this definitely in length on the 13th. But first and foremost, we have lot of organic growth opportunities. I mean, one of the reasons we want to separate both these companies is they both have the ability to focus on organic growth. Organic growth is you know - delivering that growth muscle for us is key and what that means is we're going to focus on where we're really good, which is residential, commercial water treatment. That is our strong position globally and we want to continue to invest in that area and maybe deemphasize a little of the other pieces of portfolio.
Deane Dray:
That's helpful. And just last question for me. Is there any news or development on the hurricane impact, the rebuild especially on the Aquatic side?
Randy Hogan:
No, I mean, we continue to see the order rates continue in that area both in - definitely Florida and the Houston area. So you know, as both the states continue to rebuild outside of that hurricane damage that they suffered.
John Stauch:
The optimism - I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, the optimism in this business is as high as I've ever seen it. Its - growth is really, really solid there.
Deane Dray:
Great. Thank you. See you on the 13th.
Randy Hogan:
Exactly.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Just on - back to Electrical margins being flat you know in the guide, outside of this Enclosures issue it sounds like it'll be you know cleared up by 1Q. What are the other kind of headwinds to not getting you know more leverage out of Electrical?
John Stauch:
I want to see more yields from price, right. And you know I'm taking a bunker attitude here, you know, which is don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes. In other words, let's see some delivery here. This is a business that just delivers. So it's - I expect to be an anomaly what we're seeing now.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then on Thermal, I mean, it looks like the - you know the big projects you're lapping, kind of the big project com, you know, we're at $65 oil, it sounds like after markets been better. Can you just maybe carve out where you think the outlook is for that business into ’18?
Randy Hogan:
A shout-out to the Thermal team. They did an incredible job this year. You know, if you look at their overall and the top line coming down those was big projects. They not only right sized cost structure, but actually made investments, they made investments against driving MRO and driving product sales only much higher margins than the products that were coming down. So we saw a nice increase in margins in that business and frankly with a little bit of mojo behind capital spending in energy that's going to bode well for the smaller projects and the product sales and our investments we made in MRO. I expect another dazzling year for Thermal.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Mike Halloran from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, Mike.
Mike Halloran:
So on kind of a comparable question though you guys have been answering on the Electrical side, maybe similar puts and takes on the Water side for the margins into next year, just how you're looking at the price cost curve and also how you're looking at productivity? And then for the cumulative company also some thoughts on the restructuring side how much benefit for both Electrical and Water you're assuming in numbers for next year?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Mike, you know, on the Water side, we had a strong productivity year in 2017. But you know, we have to get back to investing in organic growth. So for 2018 we've got some $25 million of incremental investments in primarily sales, marketing and innovation technology into the outlook for 2018. And we want to get back to investing to control our destiny as far as the future and begun to build an organic growth muscle. So we're excited about the opportunity to you know focus on where we think we're strong, which is residential, commercial, water treatment and then starting to invest in the longer term growth trajectory. So other than that, price cost for us is not as big an issue as it is in Electrical you know, we deal with the trades channel and usually have the ability to take the price and cost and mitigate them through our channel. So we're a little bit blessed in that regard. And then Randy, do you want to add to the Electrical.
Randy Hogan:
Well, I just did on the margin side, I think I’ve...
Mike Halloran:
Yeah. No, no I was comfortable on the Electrical side. Was there any restructuring benefits for either the two pieces into next year?
John Stauch:
Oh, yes, significant. I mean, both groups have taken the opportunity to optimize their portfolio and both sides are looking at you know some tailwind associated with 2017 restructuring.
Randy Hogan:
And kudos to John and Beth both as they - built the structures as you recall when we first said we're going to separate, we thought we might have a $20 million headwind in the corporate cost and we actually came out with a neutral, no headwind. A lot of good work too.
Mike Halloran:
And any willingness to give a dollar number on those or too early and just want to leave it up to the individual companies over time?
Randy Hogan:
Too early.
Mike Halloran:
That’s fair. And then on the engineered pump side, first positive commentary in a while there, maybe just some thoughts on what you're seeing in the market and sustainability of what could be an early turn toward something more positive?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, the market is definitely recovering and has been recovering throughout 2017. And we have built the order backlog for the breaking fix side of primarily municipal. So I think we – we’re now moving from what used to be a headwind to let's say a slight tailwind.
Mike Halloran:
Sounds good. Thanks for the time.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Scott Graham from BMO. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Morning, Randy and John, Beth.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Scott.
Scott Graham:
Couple questions for you. You know, where we were talking in 2017 about what felt like about a 1%, maybe 1% to 2% headwind to sales from businesses that were sort of - let's just call it being run off so to speak. Could you tell us kind of what that is in Water and if there's any in Electrical as we stand today still happening?
John Stauch:
Yeah. So what we are referring to is you know, we shipped some projects in 2016 that had a headwind you know, and we looked at those as being somewhere around a point of headwind on the Water side. And then you know, larger impact in the Electrical side, primarily all in Thermal, which was the large jobs that had completed in 2016 that had no revenue in ‘17. That's all behind us now. And as we look forward we no longer have those challenges and each of the businesses will produce the organic growth or the core growth that - that will be just reflective of no longer having those year-over-year challenges.
Scott Graham:
Right. I guess, John I was referring to and what I thought and may - correct me if I'm wrong, that you were even in some of like the lower margin Water businesses, residential, maybe you were walking away from some customers there, did I have that wrong?
John Stauch:
No. I mean, it was more about more geography prioritization. You know, we as two smaller focused companies can't afford to be in every geography in the world. And you know, it gets very difficult to have a small scale and compete in Russia or a small scale and compete in Brazil and so both sides we’re looking at optimizing those opportunities. But those will be some surrounding headwinds next year, Scott as we look to move the revenue that we have to a distribution or an alternative channel, but we removed the costs – associated [ph] structure, being cost structure of being local there.
Scott Graham:
Got you. Last question from me.
John Stauch:
Okay.
Scott Graham:
You know, as these companies take their - you know, each independent paths, have you - I know that there's a lot of work going on behind the scenes in terms of what you want to be and all that and the separation mechanics themselves. But if you thought about M&A pipelines. I know you mentioned John where you kind of want to be just now, but have you started to identify some things on the Water side and on the Electrical side. Is there one of the three platforms you maybe want to develop a little bit further?
John Stauch:
So I'll handle the Water side. I mean, clearly you know, disciplined capital allocation is important for both sides. And I think in the near term we think we have a significant amount of organic growth opportunities and I'd like to see our businesses demonstrate the organic growth that that they have and then tuck in behind it the M&A. So yes, we're identifying them. I think you know, where we have strong organic growth and they probably have a readiness and an ability to move sooner. But I really want to see the discipline around that steady consistent organic growth and then putting the fuel behind them as a bolt on. Randy, if you want to answer the Electrical…
Randy Hogan:
Yeah. In Electrical you know, there's quite a few parts of the business, if you look at all three of what will be the segment, they are actually all three very attractive from a profitability standpoint and they all have opportunities on the M&A. But I would say 2018 as a prove it year from an operation standpoint and a continuation year from driving the organic growth that we're really building great momentum on. At the same time there have been and there will be opportunities I think to do little plug and play acquisitions, particularly in the EFS side, Electrical Fastening Solution side and maybe some Thermal too. But again, I think Beth could talk more about that on the 13th.
Scott Graham:
Got it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from John Walsh from Vertical Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
John Walsh:
Hi. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
John Walsh:
So one question about the Q1 top line guide, in prior slides you'd called out you know, a days comparability issue on a on a year-over-year basis, we obviously lived through some of that in 2017. I think the last update I saw Q1 ‘18 actually has one less selling days from your prior slide. Is that still the case or how should we think about that?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, I would say it's a rounding error. I mean, a day is not all that meaningful and that's reflected in what we have in the core guide for Q1.
John Walsh:
Okay. And then you know, clearly good cash conversion execution here. You know I like or applaud that you do it on the adjusted net income. As we think about next year, you know, in working capital I mean, clearly as you execute on that it does get harder to keep getting gains out of that line. You know any particular cash items you have visibility into next year that give you know, confidence in that 100% conversion on the adjusted net income, whether it's on the inventory line or payables or anything like that?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, the first thing I'd like to state, maybe it's clear already, is both Water and Electrical have and will convert at 100% level. So the capability is on both sides. There's a seasonality in Water that John talked about that's important, but for the year both will deliver. I believe that Electrical it does because of the distribution - short term distribution challenges that I just talked about will have some inventory opportunities, as well as we've really only begun to think - make - scratch the surface on EFS opportunity on inventory.
John Stauch:
Yeah, I think the biggest tailwind opportunity for both companies as we go forward is to read – the reducing of the separation related costs and the severance and restructuring costs. I mean, on the gross cash rate both companies will start to you know get into more of a stabilized mode and no longer have these large restructuring actions that have hurt us on the cash flow side.
John Walsh:
All right. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Morning, Nathan.
Randy Hogan:
Morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
John, on the Water side, you talked about focusing on the areas where you're seeing good growth, where you're having strong positions and maybe deemphasizing some of the other businesses. Given the opportunity you have with the split, is -- have you given a thought and consideration to perhaps disposing of some of those assets using that capital to bolster the businesses where you have better and stronger positions?
John Stauch:
Yeah. I don't know if we're there yet. I think it's really about the fact that it's prioritization. And you know, we've been - we have a lot of great growth opportunities across all of Water, but we have to focus our energy and focus our actions - our actions. And so you know, it's about not chasing the large jobs that are one and done. It's about focusing on the aftermarket. The annuities, the stability of our customer base and that's really what it's about at this point Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
And then I know you guys said you're looking at investment-grade balance sheet for both companies. But judging by the interest expense line that you have there, Electrical is going to get more of the debt on what is a somewhat smaller company. Does that indicate that you guys believe that the Water business has more opportunities for M&A?
John Stauch:
Obviously that that reflects roughly what we think will do. As you recall you know, now that we've retired all - retired the debt with the proceeds from Valves & Controls, while money is fungible, the debt that remains is really around EFS. So I just think by rights it sort of an Electrical debt, which is the guiding principle. I think there are more opportunities on both sides, but Waters is been on the sidelines for first because of Valves & Controls and secondly because of the EFS acquisition for a while. So those are the guiding principles that I gave the team to use as they put this together, still have to finalize things though.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, fair enough. And then the $25 million of incremental investments, I think that was related to Water. Can you quantify what incremental investments are related to Electrical? And then maybe talk about some of the major initiatives, some of the major investments that you're making to drive growth here in the future?
John Stauch:
Yeah, about 50 basis points on the Electrical side. You know, and again I mean, those are to further off the automation, get the delivery and quality issues and also to be creating the one event opportunities across the portfolio for some of the key initiatives that they have, like rail and data centers. So I mean I think each of these companies feel that the incremental investment in 2018 is really going to create a sustained and more predictable organic growth in ’19, ‘20 and beyond. And so obviously if it doesn't materialize that's an opportunity, but it would be disappointing if we weren't able to invest that in the future growth.
Nathan Jones:
Is that a number that you think is a run rate number? This $25 million in Water, 50 basis points in Electrical, is this a step-up for 1 year that will step down again? Or a step-up to a level that you would imagine sustaining as we go forward investing in growth opportunities?
John Stauch:
We'd like to sustain it.
Randy Hogan:
I think we need to build the business model to be able to sustain that, so we keep it going. John made a good point earlier about these large projects that are won and done. And I mentioned earlier about Thermal, as redirecting and restructuring their cost to go after smaller sustainable MRO and product that's really an opportunity in Water as well, which as John said that those investments should sustain, those investments should give us more reliable organic growth.
Nathan Jones:
Excellent. Thanks very much for the color.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
That was closer, John.
John Stauch:
Hello, Mr. Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Yeah, I thought it was closer. We're again improving, hopefully another 10 years and we'll be all the way there. So John just to follow up on something you said about you know, emphasizing versus deemphasizing points within Water. Does deemphasizing you know, could that mean outright sales of businesses? And you can kind of ring fence you know, maybe not the exact lines of business, I don't want to spoil the fun for the Analyst Day. But you know the rough size of businesses that could be in that deemphasization [ph] you know bucket?
John Stauch:
Josh, let me take - let me take it and of course, probably will come up again on the 13th [ph] But you know, the fact is that, we have always focused on capital allocation, if look at all the things we did, I mean, we just - we sold the pipe business right after we bought Tyco. We ended up making different calls and selling valves. You know we have trimmed and pruned the business, as well as replanted it. And so that sort of I think almost in the DNA of the business to think that way. And I would expect both businesses to continue to do that.
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, Josh, I mean to put it into context, 85% of what we do falls into one bucket in Water called residential commercial water treatment. I want to focuses to be there. We've moved to more of an enterprise model where we have the ability to look at marketing across the enterprise you know, in innovation across the enterprise and we want the extra energy to be focused on where we think we can differentiate against the competition and differentiate on behalf of the customer. One of the big areas that we have to invest in is digital marketing to pull the consumer through our professional channel and that's going to be done first on the residential commercial side. The technology is transferable, I mean when we take a look at what we have and what we do in Industrial Filtration that technology is useful in residential commercial, it hasn't been used that way in the past. And so it’s more about a redirection as we go forward than it is necessarily an asset sale.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got you. So when you think about that - the 15% that doesn't fall into the core, we shouldn't you know think about Pentair long-term is maybe parting ways with those as we add in other things that are closer to the core. That's not necessarily in the agenda?
Randy Hogan:
That's correct.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Okay. That was all. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Brian Drab from William Blair. Please go ahead. You line is open.
Brian Drab:
Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Morning.
Brian Drab:
So back to Water if I could just for a second, you mentioned that the pace of margin improvement in Water shouldn't continue, but you are guiding up 40 Bps for ’18 and this is really good operating margin in Water in the back half of the year here and really for the whole year. I guess my question is just can we continue to track up above 20% and as I look back at the old reporting structure, you know Water quality was of course sustain margins above 20, but flow and filtration was well below that. And I'm just wondering if you know combined what is the longer term trajectory for this combined business?
John Stauch:
Yeah, what Randy meant was even though we delivered a 140 year-on-year this year and we're up 100 every single quarter, we did not make those future investments in the growth that we're doing in 2018. So if you add back that $25 million of incremental growth I shared with you it suggests that these margins continue to expand before that growth. And I would just look at it that way. The other thing we did and you know we used a playbook that's been proven in the PIMS for some period of time and we did a lot of product rationalization, SKU rationalization and reprioritizing some of the lower margin product and really didn't suffer all that much in the top line - significantly expand margins. So I mean, there's a ton of opportunity still remaining in these businesses from an operational standpoint, but we want to invest in future growth.
Brian Drab:
Okay. But we shouldn't think about 19.6 or wherever we are as a ceiling in 2019, 2020 we can continue to move up?
John Stauch:
No, and our peer group demonstrates that too. I mean, if you take a look at some of the older water peers they have really nice margins as well.
Brian Drab:
Yes, for sure. And then if I could just a couple of questions on Thermal. Are you starting to see demand specifically in the in the petro-chem market. You know, there's talk of - a lot of talk of a second wave of investment there in over the next few years, could that be a tailwind for you?
John Stauch:
Yeah, we are we're seeing a pretty broad base. As we mentioned before, particularly now with the tax law change, I expect - I would expect the investments in petro-chem on the chem side, right, on the plastic and monomer side is going to be quite substantial here with low cost natural gas in North America. The whole industry should be here. So with the tax law change you know, I think it could be - we could have a sustain capital spending even at this oil price level, that would be pretty exciting.
Brian Drab:
All right. Okay. Thanks. And then just one last quick one. You mentioned MRO again is picking up steam in Thermal and in the Americas. And can you kind of break that down into what…
John Stauch:
It’s also in Europe, its everywhere.
Brian Drab:
Okay.
John Stauch:
Now if you want to go back and just look at the energy side, you know, now they're back $65. You're back to more normalized maintenance level and this is a business and has a wonderful MRO flow. And our focus now on our investment as we took down the elephant hunting, forgive me - forgive the metaphor, but of the large projects we invested in the things out to more aggressively focus on getting that after marketing and serving it and we're enjoying that. So I expect it to continue.
Brian Drab:
Okay. So my question is going to be, just thank you for that. But my question is going to be within the Americas are you seeing the same kind of momentum in Canada versus the US and kind of broad based across end markets or are there any specific pockets of strength?
John Stauch:
As I mentioned it is broad based. So it is Europe. It has come back from Canada, it has – it is strong in North America.
Brian Drab:
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Hey, maybe I'm going back to Electrical for a second and your commentary earlier around price cost. So if I kind of take a look at 2017 it looks like you've been running last few quarters about $10 or $11 million price cost negative last few quarters and it sounds like that's going to continue now at least through next four or five months. On top of that you've got strategic investments call it $2 to $3 million a quarter in Electrical. What I'm trying to do is I'm trying to bridge to flat margins. Is there any expectation then as we get into the back half of the year that price costs reverses or are there other things that are coming through on your bridge to get to a flat margin guidance for ’18?
John Stauch:
Yeah, I mean the productivity – the stabilization then leads to positive productivity and you know that's more in the third and fourth quarter as opposed certainly not first quarter a little bit the second that I think about it.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. So is there an expectation also from a pricing standpoint and I guess my understanding was that and I could be wrong here with that typically you guys put price increases through at the end of the year, early part of the year and so I'm just wondering whether there's an opportunity for you to get additional pricing as the year progresses?
John Stauch:
Let me say this carefully, but I hope there is an opportunity. You know, we haven't broken that process. But this business, I mentioned it's an anomaly and most in the Enclosures business for this kind of performance. So controlling your destiny means controlling what you can. So there's been a price increase but do we count on that or we count on the productivity that we own and we drive, you kind of what you can - would you own and drive that's what controlling our own destiny means. If the price really read through that would be good. But we want to deliver on our commitments in any case.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. And maybe then just kind of following on what you can control, which is partly the cost angle. Do you guys plan to typically hedge any of your commodity costs or are we just kind of going to roll through because we've seen a little bit of an increase here in copper and steel and just wondering like you know, whether we should – what kind of headwind we should be expecting from that?
John Stauch:
What our process is you know, we're not commodities traders. So what we'd like to do is we would like to lock in our price so that we can have good operating plans and predictability in our business. So we typically are locked out about 6 months on those commodities and copper is one of them.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Okay, guys thanks very much.
John Stauch:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Steven Winoker from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
This is actually Chris on behalf of Steve. Can I just - can we just go back to the price cost and productivity kind of topic. You know, you guys said that you control your own destiny with regard to productivity. Are you seeing customers being more reluctant to accept price. Is that kind of something that you know you're seeing with their customer base right now?
Randy Hogan:
Well, again, talking about Enclosures, it’s really hard to actively set price when you can’t get deliver, right. And so we've got stable and we'll see whether they accept it.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay.
John Stauch:
But I mean, people are seeing inflation, so any material inflation that typically in that business has led us to be able to achieve some price.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then you know, I know you said you're not - did the elephant hunting is a thing of the past, but in terms of just project activity in general, I mean, are you - is there more activity or is there anything you guys are seeing there or is the growth going to continue to be kind of more shorter cycle in nature more MRO kind of mix there…
John Stauch:
In this kind of a robust economy there will be - there will be larger projects, but we want projects to come to us and we want to own other parts of the business. And so it's a different - we certainly will accept them as they come. But we're not going to have the major effort that we had in the past and the cost structure associated with that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And again just one more, on Electrical & Fastening, I know there was year-over-year comp, but you know the strong sequential acceleration there. Is there anything more to that and how should we kind of expect that to flow through ’18?
John Stauch:
Well, the CADDY business, the CADDY brand product line which is largely commercial is seeing – it saw some variable growth in EFS, but CADDY was pretty solid, it was it was really solid in the fourth quarter and then the industrial - the infrastructure business was - really came back and I think again in this economy with what's happening, I would expect infrastructure to continue with some strength.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions on the phone at this time. And turn the call back over to presenters.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks for your questions and your attention. Just to wrap things up, we remain on track for the separation to be completed by April 30th. But this still remains work to be done. Both businesses are well positioned entering the New Year with improving top line fundamentals. We expect both companies have strong balance sheets upon launch. We report to updating you further on February 13th with Pentair and nVent presenting their strategies and we hope you share our excitement for the future of both companies. Again thanks for your continued interest and operator you can conclude the call. Thanks.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. You mean now disconnect.
Executives:
James Lucas - Vice President, Investor Relations Randy Hogan - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co. Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets, LLC John Walsh - Vertical Research Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets Steven Winoker - UBS Research Michael DeLalio - Susquehanna International Group, LLP Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Brian Drab - William Blair & Co LLC Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kim, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Pentair's Q3 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Jim Lucas, you may begin your conference.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Kim, and welcome to Pentair's third quarter 2017 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2017 performance as well as our fourth quarter and full-year 2017 outlook, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the Company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-Q and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks Jim. I'm starting on Page 4 of the deck. Our third quarter results met or exceeded virtually all of our expectations entering the quarter and represented another positive step on delivering our 2017 commitments. I will discuss the quarter in more detail in a moment, but we saw adjusted core sales grow; strong margin expansion, and adjusted EPS increase over 20%. We remain on track to separate our Water and Electrical businesses next year and both teams are making good progress in preparing for next year's separation. We are raising our full-year adjusted EPS estimate to approximately $3.53 per share reflecting the solid third quarter performance and our expectations for another solid quarter to end the year. We should exit 2017 with improved topline momentum and we expect to benefit in 2018 from carryover on our cost out initiatives this year as well as benefit from lower interest expense that we did not recognize for all of 2017 as a result of the April closing of our sale of Valves & Controls. As we stated last quarter, we have two goals this year. Deliver on our 2017 commitments and prepared to stand up two companies in 2018. We believe that our third quarter performance and improved full-year 2017 outlook are positive steps towards meeting those commitments. And the activity is underway on the separation are right on track with our expectations. Now I'll turn to Slide 5 for discussion of our third quarter results in a little more detail. As mentioned, the third quarter performance was in line or better on nearly all metrics. Adjusted core sales grew 1% in the quarter with Water up 1% and Electrical growing 2%. Segment income increased 7% and return on sales expanded to 100 basis points to 18.9%. Although material inflation remains a headwind, we continue to drive productivity and pricing actions to help mitigate the impact. Our corporate expense was a little lower than anticipated. This helped to offset slightly higher than expected interest expense. Adjusted EPS grew 22% and $0.95 exceeded the high-end of our guidance. Free cash flow is nearly $200 million in the quarter and we continue to target free cash flow approximating adjusted net income for the full-year. Let's turn to Slide 6 for a look at Water's performance in Q3. Our Water segment delivered adjusted core sales growth of 1% and 3% growth overall. Segment income grew 10% and return on sales expanded to 120 basis points. This was the third consecutive quarter that Water margins have expanded in excess of 100 basis points, which reflected continued strong productivity and improved mix. Our Filtration & Process business saw core sales declined 4%, but once again we saw a dichotomy between the vertical served by the business. We continue to see strength in Residential and Commercial and especially in Food Service. These are two higher margin businesses and contributed to the improved margin performance in the quarter. The smaller process business continued to be hampered by minimal global desal activity and muted spending in the beverage industry. Although, we have been disappointed with the topline performance of Filtration & Process year-to-date, we are approaching easier comps as we exit the year. Flow Technologies saw core sales declined 2%, which is an improvement from the 4% decline we saw last quarter. While we've seen a recovery in agriculture, softness in our smaller infrastructure pump sales has hamstrung the topline performance year-to-date. We have seen orders and backlog improving in this longer cycle business, but we expect it will take until next year before we see any topline recovery in infrastructure sales. In the meantime, Residential, Commercial, and Agriculture remain healthy and we expect the comparisons to continue to improve exiting the year. The Aquatic Systems saw a very strong end to the pool season with third quarter core sales growing 9%, which is slightly faster than the year-to-date growth of 7%. Similar to the quarter-to-quarter volatility we experienced in the first half, we did not expect the strong third quarter growth rates to repeat in the fourth quarter, but likely a blended second half growth rate to approximately what we experienced in the first half. While the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma in two of the largest pool markets in the U.S. has not fully played out in our results. We believe that any near-term disruption has not and we will not materially impact our full-year's results. Now let's move to Slide 7 for a look at Electrical's performance in Q3. Adjusted core sales grew 2% as we continue to see strengthening in our short cycle Industrial businesses. Segment income grew 2% and return on sales expanded to 50 basis points as improved mix was not enough to offset continued price cost headwinds. While material inflation has been a significant headwind in Electrical throughout the year and more specifically in Enclosures and Electrical & Fastening Solutions, we continue to drive productivity and pricing actions to help mitigate the impact. Enclosures core sales grew 2% in the quarter and improved sequentially. Strength continued in the Industrial business with broad-based sales growth across all regions. Within infrastructure, the smaller Electronics businesses following lap it is tough comparisons and grew backlog this quarter and we believe it is poised to return to growth. Core sales declined 11% in Thermal, but this was due solely to the topline headwinds of three large energy jobs last year in Canada that we've outlined at the outset of this year. Excluding these large jobs, Thermal grew nicely. Thanks to its focus on both the small project and product side of the business. It was particularly strong sales in the Industrial MRO business. It's worth noting that the business has dramatically improved its margins this year, as realigned as cost structure and benefited from better overall mix of higher margin product sales. After growth in the first quarter followed by a decline in the second quarter, core sales for Electrical & Fastening Solutions were flat. The Commercial business remained strong as we expand into prefabricated solutions and the Industrial business stabilized. Infrastructure sales were mixed with continued declines in our engineered construction product line offset by strength in rail. Now please turn to Slide 8, for an update on our planned separation. Before turning the call over to John to discuss the financial outlook in more detail, I wanted to first provide an update on the Separation announcement we made in May. As a reminder, our Board has approved a plan to spin-off our Electrical business, which remains on track to be completed in the second quarter of 2018. Shortly after we issued our earnings release this morning, we issued a second press release announcing the name of our spined calling it nVent. We previously announced that Beth Wozniak, who will be the CEO. We also announced today that we've hired a CFO for the business, Stacy McMahan, who was coming to us after two successful stands as the public company CFO. The other key dates outlined in the slide include our expectation that the nVent Form-10 will be filed before the end of the month and then we anticipate hosting separate Pentair and nVent investor meetings on February 13 of next year. As stated previously, we're expecting the separation to be completed in the second quarter of next year. We remain excited for Pentair's next chapters. We create two industry leading pure play companies in Water and Electrical. We strongly believe that both companies are well-positioned for long-term growth and value creation with the scale and strength to control their own destinies. The increased focus of both companies should help to raise the execution even further and drive higher differentiated growth. We believe that our performance throughout 2017 as demonstrated our ability to better forecast our business and execute against our commitments. Both companies can now become appreciated for the jewels they are. I'll now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide number 9, titled balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the third quarter to balance sheet in the solid position. Our ending debt balance is $1.5 billion, which does not include just over $100 million of cash on hand at the end of quarter. Our free cash flow generation remains strong and was just under $200 million for the quarter and $375 million year-to-date. With a slow start to the year, due to tough comparisons, but we continue to make good progress on cash flow and remain on track to generate free cash flow equal to adjusted net income for the full-year. Our ROIC continued to improve and we ended the quarter at 11.5%. Please turn to Slide 10, title Q4 2017 Pentair outlook. We are introducing fourth quarter adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $0.93 per share, which is almost a 20% increase year-over-year. We expect the adjusted core sales to grow approximately 2% and both segments are expected to grow at this rate. This marks increased momentum from the growth rates last quarter and we believe better represents the growth trajectory of both businesses, which still have not fully recovered. We anticipate segment income to increase just over 10% and return on sales to increase roughly 80 basis points and likely exceed 18%. We expect the tax rate to be 20%, net interest expense of $14 million and the share count to be around $184 million. Free cash flow should end the year strong once again. Please turn to Slide 11, label full-year 2017 Pentair outlook. We continue to expect adjusted core sales to grow 2% for the year with both segments close to that growth rate. We have seen continued improvement in our base business as we projected for the year and many of the tough comparisons we face throughout 2017 should finally be behind us as we exit the year. We expect segment income to increase roughly 7%, return on sales to expand north of 80 basis points to 18% or better, and adjusted EPS to be up over 15% for the full-year. We continue to target free cash flow to be 100% of adjusted net income. As I stated previously, we expect seasonal fourth quarter free cash flow strength. As we exit 2017, both of our businesses are not only demonstrating strengthening topline trends, but we continue to have some carryover of cost savings and lower interest expense in the 2018. We have one more quarter to deliver for 2017, but we feel better about the momentum we are building exiting the year. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which Randy will have a few closing remarks. Please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Good morning, guys.
John Stauch:
Hey, Jeff.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hey, so you mentioned building momentum into 2018, can you just talk about some of the more challenged businesses organically flow Filtration, Thermal and kind of how orders and funnels are shaping up that would support growth into 2018?
Randy Hogan:
Let me talk about Thermal and I'll let - you can talk about processes. So Thermal is really is - I think it's a real bright spot in performance. You just can't see it because of the oil sand projects, which aren't occurring this year. The business has totally repositioned itself, redeployed just focused on the smaller projects, which are frankly more profitable and they're numerous, and on the product sales, and on the servicing the installed base. So we're very active in building the balance sheet - I mean building the backlog, and as we mentioned in the script, margins are up despite the decline in revenue overall, so I am really pleased with Thermal's progress, I think you'll see next year and I'm not going to put out a specific forecast. But I expect to see growth from that next year from the work they're doing in Thermal.
John Stauch:
And Jeff on the Water side, we've been hampered by the fact that we had a fairly depleted backlog in our infrastructure pumps and we've been building that backlog. And on a quarterly basis those businesses, the infrastructure pumps are getting better sequentially, and therefore, the year-over-year impact is less. On the Process side and in Filtration, we did have some projects last year as we called it out and once again if you look at the business on the quarterly rate, Q2 versus Q3, Q3 versus Q4, the business is improving and the year-over-year comparisons are easing. And so the business overall is getting healthier and the year-over-year comparisons are easier and that's why we think the organic growth rate begins to accelerate as we head into next year.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay, great. And then John, just as you kind of develop the Water long-term strategy in your early observations around cultivating organic growth, capital deployment, M&A pipeline? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yes. We'll be talking more in detail on that certainly in our analyst meeting in February, but we do think we - both part of the reason for the spin is so that both companies can look at their own capital allocation strategies. I think both are going to focus on bolt-on M&A and using the capital in discipline way primarily because both have great organic growth opportunities.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Stephen Tusa:
Hey guys. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Steve.
Stephen Tusa:
What was the pure kind of price cost headwind for the quarter and maybe if you could just talk about updating that on the bridge for the year?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Steve just to clarify, inflation for Pentair is running about 2% of cost and that's been pretty steady throughout the year. So when we talk about price cost, the inflation came out of the gate pretty strong, but has been right around that level. It's been the pricing that's been challenged primarily on the Electrical side, the ability to gain the price that we expected as we end the year. It hit what we think is a low point in Q3 and we believe that we're going to start to see increased pricing in Q4 and throughout 2018. On the Water side, we've been right around 50 basis points of price throughout the year, Steve, so we've been able to recover some of that and that's why it's been really isolated to an Electrical explanation.
Stephen Tusa:
Got it. And then when we think about the kind of the calendar event here, at what stage will you be able to kind of opine a bit more on the capital allocation priorities of the new companies, and how you see deploying the balance sheet?
Randy Hogan:
Well, we want to go through the full strategy in detail with both Beth and John, and that's what we're talking about the February 13th session that we're planning; I guess we're announcing today that we want to do that, so that we can really describe the companies in their own right. But both have top of comparison margins, both have really strong cash flow. And one of the reasons we're splitting the Company as we were fighting the oil and gas downturn in Valves & Controls, these businesses - these businesses weren't funded the way they need to be. And I think this year is beginning to show that that focus is going to make a difference and it's going to make any bigger difference when they're separate because they're - we intend them to deploy that cash flow both in M&A, but also to be consistent with Pentair's legacy of dividends and having a sound balance sheet. And that's what's guiding us right now.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Great.
John Stauch:
Steve, I would just add to that. I think as we've discussed, certainly, we've started to talk about. I think both companies are going to think about simplifying their portfolios, focusing their portfolios, and I think you're going to see capital allocation going to where each company's swindling is identified and making sure that that's clear externally and internally and then our customers understand why they're coming to us to buy our products and we're giving them more what they need.
Stephen Tusa:
So just to be clear, I think you had said Water pricing was consistent, but I think it was up more like 1% in the first half, so this is somewhat of a deceleration. What drove that deceleration again?
John Stauch:
Yes. That's just where we are in the year-over-year basis, Steve, and that's a fair observation, but we have a seasonal type of pricing plan and that starts generally now as we look at some of our businesses. And so it's really - you'll see that start to get better as we head into 2018.
Stephen Tusa:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Baird. Your line is open.
Michael Halloran:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Michael Halloran:
So just trends in the quarter, did those shape up as you expected. I know you highlighted a little improvement, looks like on a segment basis, the underlying expectations for the year are down a little bit I think a point for each. So just curious how the trajectory to the quarter went and how went relative to your expectations?
John Stauch:
I mean obviously the revenue number externally hit the expectations. So we did have in the slides last quarter, we had some foreign exchange benefit and what we called core. When you take a look at the absolute numbers of both Electrical and Water both achieved their expectations for the quarter and both are on their expectations for the full-year for a revenue standpoint. So things are trending exactly as expected. Despite having to navigate as Randy mentioned the hurricanes and two relatively important states, so I think we feel good about where we are both and in Q3 and heading into Q4.
Michael Halloran:
Then maybe just an update, okay, I'll just add some large project type. Could you just remind me to what extent your large projects are in the fourth quarter? And then I'm assuming there are no large projects going to be assume, so we should get clean organic numbers next year?
Randy Hogan:
That is absolutely the goal.
John Stauch:
Yes. In Electrical for Q4, the headwind on that for Q4 would be around $8 million.
Michael Halloran:
All right. Great. Appreciated guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Maybe you can circle back on Filtration & Process and some of the end market color. Desal is always lumpy. Maybe give us a sense of what the visibility you have on some projects over the near term. And then on food and beverage, they've been CapEx or hesitant to spend on CapEx. Is that still the trend? Is there any sense that there might be some share loss there?
Randy Hogan:
No, I mean in both of those instances Deane, we have a total forecast booking in diesel of zero in 2017 from a standpoint of major projects. Last year we had roughly $20 million of revenue into a diesel projects. So it's just that there's not a lot going on there. If you look at the industrial wastewater side of membranes that's up double-digit and continuing to improve significantly throughout the year. So we're doing well on what we call the core revenue opportunities and we're not counting on these projects and we don't want to be a project-oriented business. On a food and beverage side, it's just the capital investment is very lumpy right now, due to some consolidation in the space and we're continuing to improve again sequentially throughout the year. It just the year-over-year headwinds reflect, strength in those projects last year.
Deane Dray:
Great, and then just as a follow-up, can you highlight some of the dynamics this quarter across the geographies and then specifically what do you seeing in China, especially on the Residential side?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, so Residential and Commercial for China is primarily - there's a little bit in Thermal as well in Electrical. But we're up in the high-teens, year-over-year basis, so performing well. I still we think we have opportunities there that we need to capture by being a little bit more local in the way we go to market. Europe is actually up slightly and so it's hanging in there, despite our forecast of that being more challenged. It's actually done better and obviously the United States is strong here as we finish the year.
Deane Dray:
Was that China high-teens - was that overall company?
Randy Hogan:
Yes.
Deane Dray:
Great, thank you.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Walsh from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, John.
John Walsh:
Hey, so not meaning to nit-pick on this number, but as we think about the Q4 free cash flow bridge, I mean normal seasonality at least in my model gets you pretty close to 100 and I don't know if it's just the squiggle or are there any other items on a year-over-year basis either timing of cash tax or anything like that to be aware of or is it all normal seasonality that drives that lift in Q4?
Randy Hogan:
No, it's what it is. I mean if - you said, do we think we're slam dunking a 100% this year, no. I mean there's probably some margin of error to that and that margin of error would be driven by the fact that both sides are also looking at how we optimize the portfolios and what restructuring we're doing and the number that we're giving you includes the restructuring headwinds or restructuring cash headwinds as well. So we want to knew both we want to delivered the strong free cash flow, which we think comes from working capital, but we also want to set both companies up for a really successful spend.
John Stauch:
One of the capabilities that we've built in Pentair has been a focus on cash flow and managing for cash, because cash is what the bills and we have a solid track record and we have in sent people. It's part of the incentives. So I'm quite confident in our cash flow forecast.
John Walsh:
Gotcha, and then as my second question, as we're starting to get the filings here, should we think that the portfolios are pretty static? I mean I think there were some comments probably within both portfolios maybe more so in Water that there could be some pruning at some point maybe in term of product lines where you might not have full scale relative to other competitors, but I guess you kind of address the addition earlier in the call, but what about on the subtraction side and are they pretty set now going into the separation of that?
Randy Hogan:
Well, John mentioned earlier that we're taking the opportunity to really look at the whole portfolio and simplifying streamlining and prioritizing, and by prioritizing I mean what are we going to double down in nVest and that's going to leave things on the other end of the spectrum. And so we'll take a look at those and we'd like to do that earlier rather than later in this process. So that we can have the new companies are focused on growth. So I would say we're not done with that, but it is a priority to accomplish.
John Walsh:
All right. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Hey. Good morning.
John Stauch:
Hey, Scott.
Scott Graham:
I was just hoping you could help us maybe it's my understanding of how some things are presented here. So when we look at the slides on Pages 6 and 7 for the acquisition large jobs piece. I guess I would have thought that that would have only been one number whereas you kind of have a different number representing the bar versus the 2016 large jobs and those numbers, and maybe you can just sort of help us understand how those numbers tie into your Page 14?
John Stauch:
Sure. I mean, I think first of all, I mean I think we've given the data there, but let me just make sure it's clear. When you think about these large jobs and just as a reminder, these are jobs that we shipped in 2016 that have no shipments in them for 2017, right. So everything is behind us, we have not been producing on these large jobs, but it is a year-over-year headwind and that's why 2018 is so longer an issue. But those large jobs roughly in Q3 were $31 million as we highlight. And if you break that down, it's about $25 million-ish in Electrical and the remainder is in Water.
Scott Graham:
Yes. I get that and as you were talking, John, I think I actually just answered my question because I think on Page 14, we're supposed to take the large jobs and the acquisition divestiture columns and add them together.
John Stauch:
Right.
Scott Graham:
Right, that's kind of where this is, okay. I apologize for that. Lack of confusion. Now on the press release, you say core sales declined 1% and that's an absolute number. Is there - you also had fewer days this quarter right?
John Stauch:
That's correct. We have one less day.
Scott Graham:
Okay. So what was that impact for [indiscernible], so your organic sales really didn't decline 1% apples-to-apples excluding the large job impact, but apples-to-apples on the days to days, you were essentially flat?
John Stauch:
That's correct.
Scott Graham:
Okay, great. Thank you. John, I know this is really kind of up your alley that the margin expansion has been excellent this year. Could you tell us kind of what the 100 plus basis points of improvement this quarter was sort of cost savings wise from - and maybe just sort of give us some buckets. I understand price cost might have been a little bit negative, but maybe give us a little bit on what the restructuring savings were verses sort of pure productivity?
John Stauch:
Yes. So if you take a look at where we are on a cost out basis, we've hinted strongly and we had that slide before that we're on a run rate greater than $100 million. And so when you think about where we are here in Q3, we're getting a full quarter benefit of that. And so a lot of cost out here Scott and all relative to the fact that when we sold Valves & Controls, we needed to resize the organizations for what is now a $5 billion company and both of them are also focusing on a $3 billion and $2 billion company. So there has been a lot of effort and work and the change have really done a really nice job getting after the cost side. So significant productivity there and thinking of that is at least $25 million in the quarter.
Scott Graham:
And that's exactly what I was looking for. Thank you. And the last question simply is as the quarter progressed, could you kind of tell us how the order rates progressed in each segments?
John Stauch:
Sure. I'll give you directionally where they are, but we thought we would see strengthening Electrical orders and throughout the year and we have been seeing that pretty steady Q2, Q3. And it actually improved in Q3 even versus Q2 on a daily order rate basis. So we're seeing recovery, I mean some of that's probably related to some of the oil and gas recovery we're seeing down setting.
Randy Hogan:
I think more stabilizing…
John Stauch:
Stabilizing and then I think that continues to be a driver as well as Industrial volumes, Scott. On the Water side, really had healthy residential commercial throughout the year and I think people have thought that that would slow. We have not seen slowing in that space. And we're seeing recovering on the industrial wastewater side and also the Industrial investments. So right now I think exiting Q3 and Q4, things are strengthening pretty much across the board.
Scott Graham:
Great. Thanks a lot.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Winoker from UBS Research. Your line is open.
Randy Hogan:
Welcome back Steve.
Steven Winoker:
Hey. Thanks guys. Appreciate that. Good to be back. Listen, just a question, Randy, on following up your comments around under investment in the business given the Valves & Controls pressure over time. I know you meant capital allocation, but from a sales and marketing and R&D standpoint, can you maybe comment on kind of where those were taken to and the question of normalization in those investment areas across the business to kind of where we stand now versus under those pressure times?
Randy Hogan:
Well, I can't give a specific number, but I think the focus, certainly my focus on the crisis we're having on Valves & Controls because of energy, reduced the amount of focus we had on driving organic growth. And so some of the sales and marketing investments that were still made just didn't payoff. They didn't payoff. And that's part of the simplification and redirection we want to make right now in both Water and in Electrical. So there were investments going on. Now we are also holding those businesses accountable to make their numbers. So they probably didn't put all the investment than they would have wanted to. If we had the kind of performance we've had over most of my 17 years, which is pointing at the bleachers and then hitting it towards that. I wouldn't point to any specific thing that was in both Water and Electrical and it was one of the things that we considered as a board that told us that we - these businesses are going to perform even better separate than they will together.
Steven Winoker:
Have you brought back those investment levels though or the effectiveness, I mean you're mentioning things around payoff on what you guys are investing?
Randy Hogan:
One of our objectives and John just talked about; we've taken more than $100 million in cost out. But what we've taken out is structure. As we've collapsed, we've collapsed segment and corporate into - there's only two corporates now. We are actually investing in marketing. We've put in Chief Growth Officers. We put it in Water. We're putting one in Electrical. We've high graded our assignments in marketing and we're investing in a number of places. One of the reasons in fact in Water that we're doing well in Residential Filtration is we've been investing in sales resources there for probably last two years I'd say. So I'd say we've begun, but there's more to do.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And just a reminder, John, if you could. I know the things are going to move around obviously a lot. But just remind us about the difference in free cash flow conversion characteristics between the two if not stand up companies the two divisions at this point?
John Stauch:
Yes. Right now, Steve, I'd say each are going to be roughly around that 100% of adjusted net income, which as you know adds back amortization. So they're both strong cash flow generators. The only difference is the seasonality and Water will have a more of a dip in Q1 as we have our Residential loads and we collect those in Q2. And Electrical is lot more linear in its producing of its cash flow throughout the year, but on an annual basis, both are strong cash flow generators and both about 100%.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. I'll leave it with two questions. Thanks guys.
Randy Hogan:
Steve, welcome back.
Steven Winoker:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Robert Barry from Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Michael DeLalio:
Good morning. This is Mike DeLalio on for Rob.
Randy Hogan:
Hi, Mike.
Michael DeLalio:
Hey. Anything notable holding back the Enclosures business with industrial macro data so strong, we have expected growth to be a little better there?
Randy Hogan:
I think it's a business that generally lags by about six months. So that's why we've been confident it would build. And the other piece of it is there's two parts of Enclosures, part of it is Electronics, and part of it is Industrial. So the Industrial growth is about what you think it would be which are more than twice the overall Enclosures, but we do have the drag of some large telecom projects. I don't want to use that very well pressure and telecom business that has nothing growing this year.
Michael DeLalio:
Okay that makes sense. And can you remind us of your U.S. non-res exposure and what the outlook there? We've had some concerns non-res market growth has starting to slow?
John Stauch:
U.S. loans…
Randy Hogan:
Yes, I mean I would contend that we're seeing slowing, but we're still seeing mid single-digit type of projections versus coming down from a high single-digit. So it's still what we would call a relatively strong opportunity, and so I think - yes we are seeing a little bit slowing, but it's still around mid single-digits.
Michael DeLalio:
Okay, thank you.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
If I could just go back to the Filtration & Process, Flow Tech, and Thermal Management, the businesses that have been down this year, some of that's large projects. It sounded like Randy; you think Thermal's going to grow next year. The two Water businesses look to be flattening out potentially growing. Do you think you've got the cost structure for those businesses appropriate for the level of revenue? Is there more cost cutting that needs to be done, if you're expecting growth is that the cost that need to be added back just where you think you are with the cost structure in those businesses?
Randy Hogan:
On the Thermal side, one of the big reasons we've had margin expansion as we have adjusted the cost structure and at the same time we invested a new products. We increased our R&D activities in Thermal, and we redeployed sales coverage from the really large projects in the oil and gas business to focus more on Industrial MRO. And so I think that's already well-positioned and we're in the process of doing that and in Water. I think virtually all the costs are out. And there are investments to be made, but there in our plan, there in our forecasts.
Nathan Jones:
And then just one question on - it's on the Slide 7; the productivity bucket on segment income for Electrical was it zero this quarter versus $12 million last quarter? Can you just talk a little bit about why there wasn't any visible productivity improvement this quarter timing, whatever the case maybe?
John Stauch:
Yes, I would say it's primarily timing.
Randy Hogan:
But there was some productivity issues because the Hurricanes too.
John Stauch:
So expedited shipping things and timing.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, so that's something that you would expect to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter?
Randy Hogan:
Absolutely.
John Stauch:
Yes.
Nathan Jones:
All right, thanks very much.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Brian Drab from William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian Drab:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, Brian.
Brian Drab:
I just wanted to get a little more detail on the Thermal business, you talk about more small projects in that business and just wondering if you could elaborate on which end markets and regions you're seeing the strongest demand from and are you seeing the MRO business turning back on in the Energy business with some of the larger customers there?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, I mean like - really we're seeing strength everywhere. I wouldn't call it any particular market geographically as stronger. Our focus on Industrial and the application of Thermal Management technologies is more than just oil and gas or you chemicals and then some other process industries. I think our increased focus there may be helping us. And then when we talk about products, we're really talking about MRO. These are product - these are installations that need to be serviced and we return to - I think a more normal level of maintenance spending in the oil and gas industry and I think that's been a - I think that that's stability is giving rise to some predictable and attractive business opportunities.
Brian Drab:
Is there a chance you're going to see this business really step up over the next few years for some of these petrochem projects ramping?
Randy Hogan:
Well, we have a right to play in those and we are competing for them. And so I expect that that will be a positive market benefit for us and again I don't want to front run Beth with our forecast.
Brian Drab:
Understood, and then can you just - and then you said that hurricane damage is really immaterial, but in the fourth quarter when you see some tailwind related to - I don't know damage to refineries in Texas or Enclosures business in general or the pool business even?
Randy Hogan:
Even pools, yes.
John Stauch:
Yes.
Brian Drab:
Is that a just yes? No, we're not - does that mean we're certain those to the extent of that tailwind and it's not material though you're saying, is that…?
John Stauch:
No.
Randy Hogan:
We view it as - it's hard to say it's something like that investors and net positive to be over time.
Brian Drab:
Okay, understood. Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joseph Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
John Stauch:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Hey. Maybe just sticking on Thermal for second, for the fourth quarter - what's the drag from the large projects in 4Q and to the extent that you can maybe just quantify quoting activity X that's clearly the large projects in 3Q. I'm just trying to get a sense for how healthy things are?
John Stauch:
Yes. So Q4 is about $8 million of 2016 shipments that are still in the year-over-year comparisons. So significantly down from the 25-ish that we had in Q3. So the year-over-year headwinds are dissipating. And as far as quoting activity in Thermal, it's accelerating and backlog building is accelerating.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. Fair enough. I also noted that restructuring looks like you've kind of gotten through all your restructuring actions for the year de minimis in 4Q. How should we be thinking about that next year for the two separate entities? Is there any color on that at this point?
John Stauch:
Yes. So we don't really forecast what we don't know, but I think both businesses will be looking at opportunities to prioritize their portfolios and to simplify the portfolio as we head into next year. And I think over Q4 and Q1 there could still be a little bit left in the tank.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. Got it. Maybe one last one, John, you mentioned earlier on the pricing side being a little bit more difficult to get pricing on the Electrical side of the business. Are you guys - is there some type of a lag that we should expect? I mean is there a possibility for a tailwind for that business next year or is it just that the markets right now across that that piece of the portfolio are pretty competitive and we just shouldn't expect much from a pricing standpoint moving forward?
John Stauch:
No, I think what they are a seasonal price increases that go on standard cycles and it's really hard to get the off cycle through. I think there's a natural cycle that gets followed and I think we're expecting that price next year is better than it was this year, but you got to be moving with the system. And I think it was hard to move incrementally against that system throughout the year.
Randy Hogan:
Well and when the market was not growing, it's harder to get pricing and we priced to a different expectation for these businesses and earlier in another…
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. Got it. Thanks guys.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions. I'll now turn the call back to Randy Hogan for closing comments.
Randy Hogan:
Okay, great. Just in sum, we believe our third quarter was another positive step towards demonstrating the return to predictable and improving performance in our business since we divested Valves & Controls. Both Water and Electrical are building momentum as you heard in our comments and questions as we exit 2017. We remain confident in our ability to deliver double-digit EPS growth for the year. And as we highlighted earlier in the call, we're making great progress in standing up Pentair and nVent to be both successful and thrive after separation next year. Thank you for your continued interest and operator you can conclude the call.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's Pentair's Q3 earnings conference call. This call will be available for a replay, beginning at 11 o'clock Eastern Time today through 11:59 PM Eastern Time on November 24, 2017. The conference ID for the replay is 56848154; again the conference ID number for replay is 56848154. The number to dial for the replay is 1800-585-8367. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas – Vice President-Investor Relations Randy Hogan – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch – Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Steve Tusa – JPMorgan Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets Deane Dray – RBC Scott Graham – BMO Capital Markets Ronnie Weiss – Credit Suisse John Walsh – Vertical Research Josh Pokrzywinski – Wolfe Research Joe Ritchie – Goldman Sachs Brian Drab – William Blair Nathan Jones – Stifel Robert Barry – Susquehanna
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Hope, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations, please go ahead.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Hope, and welcome to Pentair’s second quarter 2017 earnings conference call. We’re glad you could join us. I’m Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2017 performance as well as our third quarter and full year 2017 outlook, as outlined in this morning’s release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company’s anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair’s most recent 10-Q and today’s release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today’s webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair’s website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks Jim. We’re pleased that our second quarter performance came in slightly out of our expectations. Sales were in line with guidance, while segment income and adjusted EPS slightly exceeded the high end of our range. We completed the sale of our Valves & Controls business during the second quarter and with the proceeds had significantly improved our balance sheet. Later in the call John will discuss the balance sheet in more detail and the impact of the Valves & Controls sales closing somewhat later than our initial timeline. We’ve tightened our full year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $3.50 per share, which is the midpoint of our prior guidance. We experienced higher than planned interest expense in the first half due to the delay in the Valves & Controls close. And we’ve also seen our share count increase modestly. Offsetting these two headwinds was our better first half operating performance. Performance that we believe is carrying momentum into the second half of the year. Also factored into our tightened guidance is the fact that we will incur some incremental redundant corporate costs in the second half, as we prepared to spin-off our Electrical business next year. With an improving top line, continued margin expansion and a stronger balance sheet, we believe the prospects are bright for both our Water and Electrical businesses exiting 2017. Now let’s turn to Slide 5 for a discussion of our second quarter 2017 results. As mentioned, the second quarter performance was in line with our top line expectations and a little better from an income and adjusted EPS standpoint. Adjusted core sales declined 1% in the quarter, but we’re up 1% for the first half. This is important to mention, because the pool season heated up in March this year as opposed to April a year ago, resulting in a tough comparison in the second quarter. Segment income grew 6% and operating margins expanded an impressive 170 basis points with both segments delivering margin expansion greater than 100 basis points and corporate expense coming in a little more favorable than we’d anticipated. We’re pleased with our strong margin expansion, which we were able to deliver despite worse material inflation and price recovery than planned. Adjusted EPS grew 14% to $1, which exceeded the high end of our guidance by $0.01 despite incurring a slightly higher interest expense and share count during the quarter. Free cash flow of $289 million during the quarter was in line with normal seasonality following the cash usage reported in the first quarter. Now let’s turn to Slide 6 for a look at Water performance in Q2. Our Water segment delivered an adjusted core sales decline of 1%. Segment income grew 5% and return on sales expanded a very healthy 120 basis points. Our Filtration & Process business saw a core sales decline 3%, and strength in our residential and food service businesses were offset by ongoing softness in global diesel and muted spending in the beer industry. Food service was the bright spot in the quarter growing high single digits on strength in the convenience and grocery store channels. Floor technology saw a core sales declined 4% as we continue to proven lower margin product lines and focus on driving margin and cash flow improvement. We saw our Residential and Irrigation business grow in the quarter, but this was not enough to offset continued weakness in our engineered pump businesses serving industrial and infrastructure. We saw orders improved for those large pumps for the second consecutive quarter indicating that we’ve reached the bottom in this business. But we’re not expecting the top line to benefit from those improved orders until 2018. Finally, our Precision Spray business which largely serves agriculture bodes another quarter of healthy growth. Following a very strong first quarter Aquatic & Environmental Systems saw a core sales grow 1%, which yielded our first half core sales growth of 7%, in line with the growth rate seen in the past several years in the business and what we expect to continue. As a reminder, the pool business can be impacted by timing of the season, which is what we believe happened this year between the first and second quarter. We continue to look for Aquatic & Environmental Systems to deliver another strong year of growth in 2017. Now let’s move to Slide 7, for a look at Electrical performance in Q2. Adjusted core sales grew 1% in Electrical as the strength we saw in the first quarter carried over into the second quarter. Segment income grew 1% and return on sales expanded a robust 140 basis points due to improved mix and ramping productivity. Within Electrical Enclosures declined 1% and remained a tale of two verticals. Our Industrial business grew mid single digits for the second consecutive quarter and we believe this represents momentum that will carry over into the second half. Offsetting this strength with continued softness at our smaller telecom business, which continue to match the strength within the Industrial business. Core sales in Thermal declined to 12%, as a reminder our Thermal business is facing a nearly $100 million top line headwind in 2017 as three large jobs from 2016 were completed. Excluding these large jobs, which we’ve called out before, we saw Thermal grow on both the projects and product side of the business. The focus continues to be on aligning the business to a smaller order size world and the underlying improvement in the second quarter gives us increased confidence that the business should exit 2017 in a strong position. Our Electrical & Fastening Solutions business saw a core sales decline following 7% growth in the first quarter. The Commercial business remained strong with the quarterly volatility stemming from the smaller infrastructure related business. As we mentioned last quarter, this piece of Electrical has faced a fair amount of material inflation to start the year and we’ve continued to take select price actions to help mitigate some of those higher inflation. We expect the Commercial business to continue to grow in the back half and we’ll look at areas to help reduce the quarterly infrastructure volatility experienced in the past few quarters. Please turn to Slide 8, for an update on our planned separation. Before turning the call over to John to discuss the financial outlook in more detail, I wanted to provide an update on the separation now what we’ve made in May. As a reminder our Board has approved a plan to spin-off our Electrical business, which we expect to be completed in the second quarter of 2018. We’ve organized a dedicated project management office that is currently driving some 20 different work streams. We’ve made the decision on the organizational structure of the direct reports to the future CEO’s of both companies and the next level work is underway. We expect to have an initial Form-10 filing during the fourth quarter. Finally, we should have further updates on the capital structure of both companies by early 2018. Our second quarter performance was another step towards regularly delivering our forecast of the business. The second quarter performance also highlights, why we believe the long-term prospects of both businesses are attractive. We’re excited for Pentair’s next chapters; we create two industry leading pure play companies, one in Water and one in Electrical. We strongly believe that both companies are well positioned for long-term growth and value creation with the scale and strength to control their own destinies. The increased focus of both companies should help to raise the execution even further and drive higher differentiated growth. Both companies can become appreciated for the jewels that they are. I’ll now turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide number 9, title Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. We ended the second quarter with a dramatically improved balance sheet after using the proceeds from our sale of Valves & Controls to retire a significant portion of our debt. Our ending debt balance was $1.7 billion, which was does not include nearly $200 million of cash on hand at the end of the quarter. We had a strong free cash flow quarter in line with seasonal trends. But our first half performance trailed the comparable period last year due primarily to a couple of higher tax payments in 2017. We continue to target free cash flow equal to adjusted net income for the full year. Our ROIC continue to improve and we ended the quarter at 11.1%. Please turn to the Slide 10, title 2017 Cost Out Update. We provided this slide last quarter as an update on our cost out actions, which are now completed. We are now on track to realize over $80 million of net cost benefits in 2017, which is up slightly from the target we presented last quarter. We remain on track to exit the fourth quarter benefits yielding greater than $100 million of net cost out in 2018. The reorganization activities that we began right after we announced the sale of Valves & Controls are now behind us. And we must now move forward with setting up the organization structures with two independent companies. Please turn to Slide 11, label 2017 Guidance Update. Slide 11 is an update of what we’ve presented last quarter when our strong first quarter operational beat offset higher interest expense due to the delayed closing of the Valves & Controls sale. While we’ve successfully closed the transaction in the second quarter and subsequently retired a significant amount of debt. The tender process was completed later in the quarter resulting in slightly higher than anticipated interest expense in the second quarter. This was offset by better than expected operating performance. We also have seen our share count increase as the stock has appreciated this year. While the higher than expected interest expense in the first half was offset by higher operating performance, we have one other factor influencing our decision to update the full year guidance to approximately $3.50 per share from a range that included $3.50 as the midpoint of that range. As we are preparing to stand up two companies to be publicly traded, we will incur some overlapping costs in the second half, as we prepare for the spin-off Electrical in the second quarter next year. I would remind you however, that our goal remains to have two public companies with minimal incremental corporate costs. Please turn to Slide 12, labeled Q3 2017 Pentair Outlook. We are introducing third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.91 to $0.93 per share, which is an 18% increase at the midpoint of the range. We expect the adjusted core sales to grow approximately 4% for the third quarter with both segments expected increase at that rate. We anticipate segment income increasing approximately 5% and return on sales to increase roughly 70 basis points and approaching 19%. The tax rate is expected to be 20%, net interest expense of $13 million, and the share count should be around $184 million. Free cash flow is expected to continue to improve in line with historical seasonal patterns. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Full Year 2017 Pentair Outlook. While we did see some shifting of top line growth from Q1 to Q2, we’ve seen improvement continue in our short cycle Industrial businesses and our Residential and Commercial businesses have remained healthy. As a result, we expect full year adjusted core sales to be up 2% versus our prior forecast to flat. We expect segment income to increase 6%, ROS to expand roughly 100 basis points around 18% and adjusted EPS to grow approximately 15%. We continue to target free cash flow to be 100% of adjusted net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Hope for Q&A. After which Randy will have a few closing remarks. Hope, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa:
Hey guys, good morning. So Slide 20 talks about you’re shipping days dynamics maybe I’m not sure if you call this out explicitly in the first quarter. But how much do you think it impacted kind of Q2 and maybe quantify how much it will be in kind of Q3, saying it normalizes in the fourth quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. It’s somewhere between 1% and 2% impact, Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So that’s kind of contemplated obviously in the third quarter guide?
John Stauch:
Yes. It is.
Randy Hogan:
Yes.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Got it. And then can you just quantify the higher costs in the second half? I mean, I guess from an operating perspective relative to what you were expecting. Did you actually kind of tweak up that operating performance in the second half? What are the sources of that?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think, as you take a look at the second half obviously we have some benefits from foreign exchange, it’s dropping through it called low double digit benefits. And then we have the stronger organic growth, which is offset slightly by the material and more difficult pricing environment. And then operating wise we would have expected to deliver a little bit more income, but we’re planning to – have to transition to the two corporate structures and bringing on those costs. And then certainly getting back to hopefully a minimal incremental cost as we spend, Steve, but we have to balance all that, while delivering 2017 and standing up two successful public companies in 2018.
Steve Tusa:
Right. Okay. And then just on this price cost stuff. Can you maybe just give us some color and quantify what you were expecting at the beginning of the year? And then where you are now and what kind of price for that kind of enterprise are you looking at?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. I’m just overall, Steve, I mean for both Water and Electrical, I’d say that we’re looking at somewhere between $15 million and $20 million headwind for the full year. Some of that realized in Q1 and Q2 and then Q3 and Q4 related to little less benefit from pricing, and a little stronger impact from inflation on the sources side, both of them together.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And then just on the pricing side. For the enterprise, what do you expect for the year?
John Stauch:
Just under a point.
Steve Tusa:
Positive price.
John Stauch:
Correct.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Great thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning guys.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Just back on price cost, can you just talk about what’s driving maybe a little more challenging environment on the pricing side. Are there certain businesses where you’re struggling to get price or is it just a timing issue?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, Jeff. I mean, I think we started the year anticipating the fact that as inflation rises both of our businesses Water and Electrical have historically been able to take advantage of those situations and raise price in the industry and have that price accepted and therefore mitigate most all of the material inflation. I think we were concerned about one issue this year, which was we’ve never had that experience with a stronger U.S. dollar. And we’re seeing the fact that most of the channels that we participate are fighting on price and therefore asking us to absorb and become more productive in serving them. And that’s the way it’s playing out. The good news is there’s a lot more growth and I think we’re all experienced in that growth and we’re able to offset that impact. But it’s generally across the board, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And can you talk about what your plans are for your second half free cash flow. And as you get closer to the spin how you’re thinking about leverage within the two companies? Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Yes, Jeff we haven’t – we’re thinking about that. But we’re not in a position to share that yet. We’re running different scenarios and planning for what the capital structure to be at both companies, but we don’t have any information yet.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, Deane.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Maybe start with Aquatic. You called out the tough comp in the second quarter. We know weather is the big factor there. And the first half looks like you’re on track. Or anything else other than weather that contributed and was a factor in the second quarter for Aquatic?
Randy Hogan:
When you look at, we had such a strong quarter last year and the season started late, it didn’t start until mid-April. And this year it started early. So we had a great March. And that really explains all the difference. When we look at the sell-through in the channel and we look at the activity in the end market, we think that business is every bit as strong as it has been, hence my comments about it. The 7% growth in the first half is more representative of the kind of growth we expect in the industry. So it’s really just timing.
Deane Dray:
Got it. You also called out a pipeline of new product introductions. Maybe some color there and would any be launched this season? And would they move the needle this season?
Randy Hogan:
They’ll be introduced this season, but they won’t move the needle this season. We continue to be the innovator in the industry. So we’re not going to give up that mantle.
Deane Dray:
Got it. And then over on Electrical. Maybe if you can expand on the infrastructure volatility. What do you actually seeing is this shorter cycle?
Randy Hogan:
It’s really rail related, I mean, if you take a look at commercial and what I would call more traditional industrial is just fine. But the infrastructure, there was an anticipation that we would be spending on roads and bridges. Now here in Minnesota, looks like you what we are, but broadly in the rest of the country, it doesn’t picked-up as much. And then rail spending is off. And that’s for our EFS business, that’s the biggest part of the infrastructure.
Deane Dray:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets.
Scott Graham:
Hey, good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Hey Scott.
Scott Graham:
I’m just wondering if you guys can give us a little bit more on the third quarter sales improvement that you’re talking about. Maybe just kind of give us something on the business lines, which you think are going to be the bigger contributors?
John Stauch:
Yes. I think just to mention this, this dynamic between Q1 and Q2 that Randy mentioned is roughly $20 million of revenue in pool that shifted amongst the two quarters. And so, when you take a look at Q3 and where we’re shooting for the core organic growth rate, I mean, it’s not – that one item generally explains it and then a little bit easier comparisons in some of our businesses like Enclosures and Electrical and then ultimately water technologies in Water. So it’s really about keeping the same general shipment rate that we saw in Q2 and then just the comparison year-over-year in Q3.
Scott Graham:
Okay. And then further on that John within Water I know that you guys are – let’s just say, quietly deemphasizing some of the businesses there. Was there a half a point or a point drag or nothing discernible?
John Stauch:
Yes. I’d say somewhere around a half a point is a fair estimate. And I mean, Randy has asked both Beth and I to look at the types of things that maybe we could have done $5 billion company that might not make sense in $3 billion and $2 billion company. So we’re both actively looking at our infrastructures and support primarily in fast growth region…
Randy Hogan:
And the initiatives.
John Stauch:
And initiatives, and we’re trying to make sure that those projects are eliminated and also that we’re addressing how to serve each of the regions that we serve in a more effective way.
Scott Graham:
Got you. Last question is on the incremental separation cost, you’re talking about within the guidance. We can see that roll through corporate or is that going to be within the volumes?
John Stauch:
Actually most of that will roll through what we have in the Electrical business, Scott.
Scott Graham:
Very good. Thanks.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse.
Ronnie Weiss:
Hey, guys. Ronnie Weiss on for Julian.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, good morning.
Ronnie Weiss:
Good morning. On the free cash flow big, big cash inflow from the working capital as sales ramp in Q3 and Q4. Do you guys kind of assume the same kind of benefit going through? And just talk a little bit about the improvements being made there.
Randy Hogan:
We’re seeing normal seasonality, we see that because particularly Water is so seasonal. The cash flows are following the normal pattern with a negative cash flow in the first quarter a big pickup in the second quarter and then continue to building in the third and fourth. I wouldn’t expect the pattern to be any different.
Ronnie Weiss:
Got it. And then just on the margins for Q3, guided up 70 basis points, a lot stronger in Q2. Is all of that contributed to some of the stronger material cost headwinds you’re seeing? Or is there some mix issue in there as well. Just talk a little bit about that.
Randy Hogan:
Yes. There’s a little bit of mix issue, I mean, it is not the strongest pool quarter. Our Aquatic’s businesses got a pretty good margin. So that’s the only mix issue and the rest is just Q2 performance carryover to Q3.
Ronnie Weiss:
Got it. Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Walsh with Vertical Research.
John Walsh:
Hi, good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Hey, John.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
John Walsh:
Just wanted to know, if we get a little finer point on the full-year Electrical margin. So we’re now at 22%, you talked about a couple of different items impacting that. Just want to know if we can deconstruct those buckets, it looks like there’s some overlapping costs that sit there, we had the commodity discussion. Maybe there’s some mix impact as well. But maybe if you can talk about it from that 23% to the 22% in that kind of walk.
Randy Hogan:
Where is the 23 come in front of you? Okay, let’s go. So, I mean, it really is just one item. And it’s the fact that we are now projecting for the rest of the year what we believe the realized price and the realized material inflation will be and that is the only difference between the two forecasts.
John Walsh:
Okay. And then just kind of one point of clarification for the models, is the large project impact for the next quarter is $27 million. Is that’s the right ballpark number we should be using?
Randy Hogan:
You’re talking about for the – in Electrical?
John Walsh:
Yes. For the entire, I guess, it’s primarily Electrical for the entire company. Can you walk back through the adjusted core?
John Stauch:
Yes. For Q3 that’s right.
John Walsh:
Okay.
John Stauch:
And then slightly less than $10 million in Q4.
John Walsh:
All right, great. Thank you, appreciate it.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Wolfe Research.
Randy Hogan:
Hello, Mr. Pokrzywinski.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Good morning. John, can you just talk about some of the seasonality in – I suspect it’s Thermal in the fourth quarter or just the uptick in the Electrical growth in the fourth quarter. I get the comp as easier but it still seems like there’s a lot of push out in especially some of these larger energy projects. Can you talk about maybe the 3Q to 4Q walk there and maybe the seasonality of margins that gets attached as well?
John Stauch:
Yes, I’ll start it and I’ll have Randy as we color. But I mean, one of the things we’re finally realizing and we saw it happen in Q2 is refining and moving into positive territory on the MRO and the aftermarket and small projects on the Thermal side. So we’ve seen a really good uptick in our Thermal revenue in the heat-tracing side especially related to the downstream maintenance that we’ve anticipated for some period of time. So that’s a big positive and then as we move into Q3 and Q4 that is the season that Thermal certainly benefits from the industry and the anticipation, the cold weather…
Randy Hogan:
Yes, both commercial and industrial. Particularly as winter cools-off I guess, winter heats up is rather its better term. That’s really Thermal’s biggest season. And the nice thing is the smaller projects and the products MRO it’s a better mix of business. So, I’m pretty please right now with the progress we’re making in Thermal. So each side, Water seasonal business is obviously the pool. And on the Electrical side the business that really experiences the seasonality of Thermal. And then everything else is steady state throughout the year.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got you. So this is just a small project MRO phenomenon, there is really – there’s nothing else do you guys have anticipated in the backlog.
Randy Hogan:
No, no.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Okay. And then just one more from me, square away some of the – maybe put a finer point on the corporate headwinds or I guess costs headwinds related to this spend versus where we’re coming out on currency versus where we’re coming out on inflation. I know the walk that you guys gave in the deck, had some higher level comments but it seems like everything I just mentioned be more of a second half dynamic that can really get bridged out per se.
Randy Hogan:
So Josh, if you want us to square away – are you an old Navy guy? Square away, it’s pretty good. Anyhow, so as we set up the – we’re really standing up to companies, we have an open CFO job, we have two open CHRO jobs, we want to get these jobs hired, we want to get – so there’s going to be some overlapping as people come and go. But those all go to the P&L. And those are just a couple of examples. But as John said, our objective is to minimize any leakage if you will at the corporate cost level in another words we minimize any additions once we’re on a separate run rate in the two companies.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
So I guess maybe from a high level, should we think about currency and inflation is being a push then?
John Stauch:
Yes, a couple of things. I mean, keep in mind we’re raising our income $10 million and that’s going to cover shares in the back half of the year. If you think about it, we have some benefit from foreign exchange as I mentioned, that’s low double digits. Call that roughly $10 million, we have some operational benefits and revenue benefits. And then we’re offsetting the combination of the slightly higher material cost and the incremental transition cost of the corporate side. Josh, that’s the positive $10 million in the outlook. So I don’t want to quantify it because we don’t know it, right? But we have to manage it while delivering 2017 and also stand up both public companies in 2018.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood. Thanks for the color.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie:
Maybe just kind of stand on inflation for a second, kind of the emerging themes we’ve been hearing about this quarter is raising steel costs and the inability for a lot of the companies that we cover to pass on those costs. You guys are talking about a little bit more inflation, in the back half of the year. Maybe just touch on that topic and how much of your business is impacted by steel?
John Stauch:
Yes, we buy roughly a couple of hundred million dollars of steel, the end markets that utilize the steel, probably somewhere around, $1.5 billion, Randy. So, I mean, material is not the highest cost of our – I mean it’s the highest costs, but it’s not the huge percentage of the revenue. But it’s a phenomenon, that usually when inflation comes, we can pass it along. And I think this year, as we said earlier and I made this comment, we’d never dealt with the stronger dollar before and there are competitors on at Europe, who have a better cost position then they did have a year before. And so you’re hearing these things about price transparency and the Internet and everything else, like that. I don’t think our products are really installed in that way or affected by it. But I do ultimately think that we’ve got a cost conscious end-user. And that challenges being pushed on our channel and we are being expected to absorb the majority of the costs this year. And it’s reflected in our guidance and I think that as we go forward, we’ll look at the opportunities to adjust that appropriately as we ahead into 2018.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it, okay. That’s fair. I guess maybe, my one follow-on question, I don’t think we’ve touched on it yet, is really on the Enclosures business. So you called out, good industrial strength, within the quarter, core growth is still down slightly. And you mentioned that you had telecom headwinds are going to alleviate, as comps get easier, after 2Q. So can you just maybe talk about the trajectory, from here, when you expect this business to drive the positive organic growth?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, we expect a better second half for sure. Actually on the telecom side, we had some big projects there, that are just they haven’t reloaded yet and we’re hopefully it will. But they haven’t. So that’s why it was negative in the second quarter. I think in the third and fourth quarter that will be – that it will still be a drag. But it won’t be as bad. And Industrial, despite the more challenging price environment, the volume is good. And that’s a really profitable business for us on the Industrial side. But many of you know is our Hoffman brand, so, that’s the big driver, Hoffman doing better. So we’ll have – we expect to have low single digit core growth in Q3.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. And just a follow-up, real quickly on that, on the pricing side do you expect the pricing to get better in this business as well, in the second half?
Randy Hogan:
No, we think that the pricing dynamic in Q2 continues to move forward into Q3 and Q4.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, great, thank guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair.
Brian Drab:
Hi good morning, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to, step back to the Thermal business for a second. And you said Thermal MRO was picking up, can you comment specifically on whether you’re seeing that in a particular end-market, oil and gas versus power-gen or general industrial?
Randy Hogan:
It’s really – what’s happened in capital spending, across those, it’s normalized, right. In oil and gas, there was a huge decline and basically it was a rough justice. They cut everything and now they are on capital level, so they returned finally to normal. So it’s actually oil and gas and industrial, it’s chemicals, it’s really across the board. Now CapEx is better in petrochemical, the petrochemical side and in some of the other industrial side. So we talk about Hoffman being up in industrial – general industrial.
Brian Drab:
Okay, okay thanks. And then, on the petrochemical side or in any other end-market, and in any other geography, are you starting to see any large projects in the pipeline?
Randy Hogan:
No and it really hasn’t been our focus, as I mentioned, we do really well, when large projects happen. And so we’re not focused on those, and we’ll do well when they come back. Our focus is making sure, we are getting more than our lion share in the smaller projects and I’m really pleased with the progress that we’re making on that. And that’s really around the world.
Brian Drab:
Okay. And then I did want to ask, because you made the comment that you are doing some work to realign the Thermal business, is that world of small orders, can you comment more specifically on what is being done to drive that realignment?
Randy Hogan:
Well, I mean it was a reduction in force and redeployment areas, where business from where there isn’t?
Brian Drab:
Okay, got it. And just one last, very broad question as you step back and look at these two separate operating companies and kind of the world that where in today for example for Thermal, it’s a very challenging operating environment. But what do you think; the long-term growth rate is for each of these businesses, at this point across all the cycle?
Randy Hogan:
Right now, we’ve got some really great work, defining the strategies in each of water and electrical. And when that whole strategy work is done, we will tell you exactly, what we think the growth rates, that we believe we’ll achieve these two separate companies will be. But I’m not going to pre-suppose that, I’ll let John.
John Stauch:
Hey, Brian, I just want to clarify one thing, the Thermal environment is actually improving, significantly for us. I mean we have these large projects year-over-year, which we’re calling out. But inside of the actual Thermal business, we’re seeing substantial margin increase. And we’re getting back to record, and in fact, we’ve cleared what we call record highs of margins at this period of business that we’ve experienced before. Again part of that is the focus that Randy shared with you. But if you take those projects out, we’re growing nicely and we’re expanding margin significantly.
Brian Drab:
Yes. Thanks for that clarification John. I guess I was just referring to the large projects, kind of not being in the picture, anymore. Thank you, got it.
Randy Hogan:
We’re looking forward to talking about.
Brian Drab:
Right got it. Thank you.
John Stauch:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning, Nathan.
John Stauch:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
A couple of questions on the Water business, you talked about softness in the pump business there. Can you talk about what you’re seeing in terms of end market demand in municipal water market, whether you think you are performing in line with the market, better or worse?
John Stauch:
Well, I think the market is definitely improving, we’re seeing the backlog begin to build. The break and fix is certainly being invested in and I think we expect to get back to core revenue growth there, as Randy mentioned, towards the tail end of this year and definitely into 2018. Are we performing with the end market? I would say, no. I think there is an opportunity here, for us to commit to where we think, we should be and play consistently in those spaces. And I think we’ve been chasing the opportunities around the world and we need to get back to our core netting and be better at what we do. And I think that’s huge opportunity for this business.
Nathan Jones:
Maybe you could talk a little bit more about what you need to change there in order to get back in line with the market, maybe where you are playing that you shouldn’t be, where you should be focused?
John Stauch:
When you are everywhere, you don’t seem to have focus. What Randy is been challenging, the team on and which I am going to take the [indiscernible] and continue to drive with focus, focus, focus. I think this is a business that’s good at, North American infrastructure. And we are good at global fire and that’s where we need to spend our time and energy on the engineered side in those two areas and continue to be good at those two things.
Nathan Jones:
That’s helpful and then just a question on the new products pipeline. You talked about that continuing to grow. Can you maybe give us a little more color on what kind of things are in the pipeline? When they are expected to come to market, maybe what kind of impact that could have?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think most of – just to give you some color and I don’t want to get to ahead of ourselves here, but a lot of the products that Randy mentioned are related to home automation certainly and the way that we can play within that space and provide the types of things that our end consumers are looking for, utilizing that capability. We’ve always been the leader in pool innovation and we’ve got some exciting new product lines coming out, to take advantage of those home automation themes and that the way that people want to continue to use their backyard and benefit from that experience. So I think we’ll start to roll that out, certainly around our Analyst Day and limit to our expectations. And I think we’ve got some exciting things in the pipeline.
Nathan Jones:
All right. Thanks very much.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Barry with Susquehanna.
Robert Barry:
Hey guys, good morning.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Robert Barry:
So I wanted to clarify the update, the P&L segment income now up 6%, so was that the net impact of better core growth offset partially by the weaker price cost, and that’s a net $10 million improvement, is that?
Randy Hogan:
Yes.
Robert Barry:
How to summarize it?
Randy Hogan:
Yes.
Robert Barry:
Got you. And then just a follow-up on the working capital question, I mean bottom line is working capital, a source or use of cash this year on continuing ops?
Randy Hogan:
It’s a slight use.
Robert Barry:
Okay. And then, just to clarify the interest, you talked about higher interest expense. I think the outlook for interest is the same at $85 million?
Randy Hogan:
That’s rounding Rob, it was a little higher in the first half, as we talked about, but it’s rounding.
Robert Barry:
Got you, okay. Thanks guys.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions, at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Randy Hogan for any closing remarks.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Hope. 2017 has been another eventful year for Pentair, as we’ve successfully divested our Valves & Controls business. Significantly strengthen our balance sheet, with those proceeds. Delivered our first half commitments and announce that we’re separating our Water and Electrical businesses into two standalone companies. We remain confident in our ability to drive double digit adjusted EPS growth for the year, as our focus remains on delivering the second half of 2017, against our commitments while standing up, two public companies. Thank you for your continued interest in Pentair and we’ll talk to you soon. Bye.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today’s Pentair second quarter 2017 earnings conference call. This call will be available for a replay, beginning at 11:00 A.M. Eastern Standard Time through 11:59 Eastern Standard Time on August 25, 2017. The conference ID number for the replay is 55516215, again the conference ID number for the replay is 55516215. The number to dial for the replay is 1800-5858-8367 or 404-537-3406. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc
Analysts:
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Beth and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair First Quarter Earnings Conference. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Lucas, Vice President, Industrial (sic) [Investor] Relations, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Beth, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2017 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us today. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2017 performance as well as our second quarter and full year 2017 outlook, as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Jim. First quarter of 2017 was a solid start to the year, as both of our segments came in ahead of their commitments. Our adjusted core sales increased 3%. We saw margins expand 50 basis points, and adjusted EPS grew 7% and exceeded the high-end of our previous guidance. The sale of our Valves & Controls business to Emerson is in the final stages of regulatory review and we expect the deal to close in the coming days. We're pleased with the progress we're making on our productivity actions, including our previously disclosed cost actions. We have seen some additional material inflation, so many of our businesses are exploring additional price and productivity actions to help mitigate this higher than planned material inflation. We're maintaining our full-year adjusted EPS forecast of $3.45 to $3.55, reflecting the first quarter beat and the delayed closing of the Valves & Controls sale. While the first quarter was better than expected, we want to watch the all-important second quarter to see if these trends continue. Now, let's turn to slide 5 for a discussion of our first quarter 2017 results. Our first quarter sales results came in better than our forecast, as both Water and Electrical delivered solid low-single-digit adjusted core sales growth. Segment income grew 3%, yet the usual leverage did not drop through. We believe this is solely a timing issue. First, our cost out actions are still ramping, so we did not get the full benefit of those actions during the quarter. Second, as mentioned, a few of our businesses have experienced higher material inflation. There is a one to two quarter lag we experience before additional price increases offset any inflation. Return on sales expanded 50 basis points to 15.5% and adjusted EPS grew 7%. All below the line items were in line with our forecast, including our 20% tax rate and our share count. First quarter free cash flow was a usage, in line with normal seasonal patterns, and we again expect full year free cash flow to equal adjusted net income. Overall, the first quarter was a good start to the year, but one quarter does not make a trend. As we enter our seasonally strong second quarter, order trends remain solid and we're monitoring progress throughout the quarter before revisiting our full year expectations. Now, let's turn to slide 6 for a look at Water performance in Q1. Our Water segment delivered adjusted core sales growth of 4%. Segment income grew 15% and return on sales expanded 180 basis points to 17%. Within our Filtration & Process business, core sales were flat. Our Residential & Commercial business showed solid mid-single-digit growth, as we saw the negative trends of the back half of 2016 reverse course. In particular, China experienced strong double-digit growth as both residential and commercial filtration returned to growth. Within our Process Filtration businesses, results remain mixed. We've seen some capital beginning to flow again in the beer sector following the pause in 2016 as the industry went through a round of consolidations. We've faced some tough comparisons within industrial and infrastructure but we continue to see nice gains in our growing Biogas business, which we further strengthened earlier this year with the acquisition of Union Engineering. Flow Technologies saw core sales decline 3% as we continue to focus on reducing complexity to drive margin and cash flow improvement. Our Residential and Irrigation Pump businesses experienced nice gains, but we saw continued headwinds within our commercial, industrial and infrastructure sales. In our Precision Spray business that largely serves agriculture, we saw another quarter of growth. Aquatic & Environmental Systems had a great quarter, with 13% core sales growth. This was driven by yet another double-digit quarter of growth from our Aquatics business. We do not believe that this strong a growth rate is the norm, but we do expect growth to continue on the heels of industry strength, continued dealer wins, and strong new product innovations. Now, let's move to slide 7 for a look at Electrical performance in Q1. Electrical performed better than expected as we saw several long challenged industries return to growth. The segment overall grew adjusted core sales 3%, segment income declined 8% and margins contracted 90 basis points to 20.6%. The margin contraction was due in part to a challenging year-over-year comparison and also some higher than anticipated material inflation. Our Enclosures business grew core sales 1% in the quarter. Our Industrial business increased mid-single-digits and experienced growth for the first time in nine quarters. The smaller Telecom business experienced a mid-single-digit decline, but we anticipate only one more tough year-over-year comparison in the second quarter before comps get easier in the back half of the year for Telecom. Core sales in our Thermal business declined 17% as a result of the three large jobs in 2016 not repeating. We are encouraged however to see MRO growth for the first time in two years. This does not mean that there is a recovery in the short cycle but it is a positive sign to see growth in this profitable part of the business. We continue to be focused on sizing the business to a smaller order size world and Thermal is making progress in building that order funnel, with activity in the smaller jobs that are out there to be secured. Our Electrical & Fastening Solutions business had a strong quarter with 7% core sales growth. We saw continued strength in our Commercial business and saw some signs of improvement in the electrical grounding product line. This business experienced a fair amount of material inflation in the quarter and we're looking at additional price increases to help mitigate the higher inflation. After a challenging second half of 2016, we're encouraged to see signs that the worst may be over for our Electrical segment. And although order trends remained solid to start April, we'd like to see another quarter or two of improvement before declaring that we're in a new world. Now, let's turn to slide 8. Before turning the call over to John to discuss the financial outlook in more detail, I wanted to provide a status update on the pending sale of our Valves & Controls business to Emerson. We have only two more regulatory approvals to receive and have an expectation that both should be arriving in the coming days. As a reminder, following the closure of the transaction, we plan to use the proceeds to retire debt, at which point we'll have a fair amount of balance sheet capacity again. As this balance sheet optionality returns, we will be disciplined in our capital allocation strategy. I'll now turn the call over to John to discuss our second quarter and updated full year 2017 outlook. John?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 9 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. Our free cash flow for Q1 was a usage of $112 million, consistent with expectations, and reflects our seasonal Q1 cash usage. This was higher than 2016, mainly due to timing of previous year tax payments and a working capital build in our Aquatic & Environmental Systems business, reflecting their strength at the beginning of the pool season. We tend to collect that cash in Q2 consistent with our business model. Our debt balance ended Q1 at $4.53 billion, reflecting the slight delay of collecting the expected proceeds from the V&C sale. ROIC ended Q1 at 10.6%. Please turn to slide 10 titled, expected impact of V&C delay. Slide 10 attempts to make three points. The first point is the $0.04 of operational beat in Q1 covers the $0.04 impact expected in Q2 for the delay of the receipt of the V&C proceeds and, therefore, not been able to restructure the debt in line with previous expectations. Point two is that we have not updated our Q2 through Q4 performance versus previous expectations and we will do so after we see the results from Q2 operations. This means we are still holding our full year guidance at $3.45 to $3.55 or a midpoint of $3.50 for the full year. And the third point is that while we had a slight delay in our debt restructuring for 2017, we want to remind you that this means we will see a four-month benefit in 2018 where we carry higher interest in the comparable period in 2017 or about $0.15 of incremental benefits in 2018 results. Please turn to slide 11 labeled cost out update. Due to the sale of V&C, we quickly got after our organizational structure and streamlined into two reporting segments and a leaner Pentair enterprise support organization. We did this to produce more standard business structures with clearer functional expectations, designed to serve our customers better at a lower cost structure. We are pleased to update that we are more than 95% complete against the previously stated cost out expectations and expect that all actions will be fully implemented by the end of Q2. These efforts results in over $75 million of net cost benefits realized in 2017 with an exit rate in Q4 that yields $100 million of net cost out heading into 2018. These costs include labor, manufacturing and operational overhead reductions designed to make us more consistent, predictable and higher performing. They do not include the net impact of material and inflation and are before the previously communicated headwinds related to higher expected employee bonuses and compensation adjustments in 2017 versus 2016 results. This is a great progress and it's good to put the reorganization behind us and allow us to focus on driving organic growth and leaner manufacturing and shared service support. Please turn to slide 12 labeled Q2 2017 Pentair outlook. As previously shared, we have kept Q2 operationally in line with previous expectations and only adjusted our Q2 EPS for the higher debt levels expected for the delay in our debt restructuring efforts. While we experienced much higher volume performance in Q1, we have not yet reflected that in Q2 results. We feel it's prudent to see how our important seasonally stronger second quarter plays out before declaring that revenue and operating results will be higher for the year. While we expect some of the Q1 sales momentum to continue, we're also monitoring increasingly higher material inflation and our ability to offset that inflation through a material negotiations or incremental pricing actions. Overall, for Q2, we expect that our adjusted core sales to be roughly flat, segment income to be up roughly 4%, ROS to expand nearly 150 basis points to around 20% and adjusted EPS to be up 14% reflecting a 20% tax rate and slightly better interest and a share count of around 183 million shares. Please turn to slide 13 labeled full year 2017 Pentair outlook. For the full year, we expect our overall adjusted core sales to be up slightly. We expect segment income to be up 5%, ROS to expand greater than 100 basis points to around 18%, and adjusted EPS to grow approximately 15% to around $3.50 at the midpoint. We expect cash flow to be 100% of adjusted net income. As previously mentioned, we will update our full year outlook after we see how Q2 growth and operational performance plays out. We have the V&C cash in hand and have a better view of our capital allocation decisions for 2017. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which, Randy will have a few closing remarks. Beth, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc:
Hello, Beth? We're ready for Q&A. Beth?
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa, JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good Morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Steve.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Steve. How are you?
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good. So, just on the kind of core trends through the rest of the year. Just remind us of in the second quarter what the large jobs headwind is.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, it's consistent with what we previously shared, Steve. I mean, there's no incremental impact on the year-over-year basis versus what we guided to earlier. So, we said it would be roughly $33 million and that's what we're counting on.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
For the second quarter?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
For the second quarter, correct.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Got it. So that doesn't really – it actually gets a little bit better relative to the first quarter?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. And the other thing that happens there, too, Steve, is the profitability gets a little bit better as we go through the year. Meaning the year-over-year profit impact isn't as bad because in Q1 last year we had a lot of product sales on that project in thermal and those bring higher margins. So, the margin pressures ease as we go through the year as well.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And so when you guys had given your guidance in the fourth quarter, you would've shown a seasonality chart on EPS that was about 30% in the second quarter. I think my math gets to me to like $1.05 just using 30%. It doesn't seem like anything is getting worse. Maybe there's a little bit of price/cost or something like that. But adjusted for the timing of Valves & Controls is – what's kind of the difference between that? What changed between kind of that implied number and your kind of $0.97 to whatever it is, $0.99 today, or is that just conservatism?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Well, I mean I think – I don't know if I can reconcile with a $1.05, but I think clearly, if we saw the volume continue at the 3% to 4% level that we saw in Q1, continue in Q2, we would expect that to produce incremental drop-throughs associated with it. At the same time, we did have a little bit more material inflation in Q1. It wasn't significantly meaningful to the Q1 results, but we're starting to watch some of the inflation on some of the key components like copper, et cetera, start to rise. And as you probably saw from some of the distributor releases, the ability to get priced right now in the end markets isn't necessarily consistent in all markets. And that's what we're watching, is what happens to that end price and the material inflation squeeze and how does it affect us throughout the quarter, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And just to remind us, is there anything else in the second half of the year that stands out that should be getting worse? It seems that with such a tough end to last year, the comps should get, I mean, just like materially easier even excluding the large projects?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I'd say generally no. Nothing we expect to get worse. As I said, we'll update our full year guidance after we see second quarter because it is so important to us.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one last question just on the capital allocation now that we're – hopefully, we're towards the end of the tunnel on this Valves process. Just remind us again what kind of the aim is with the proceeds. I think your guys had said – it was John. You had said in March that there'd be kind of a split between debt reduction, maybe a little bit of buyback, some acquisitions. Maybe just your latest thinking on how you kind of chop up the proceeds into those three buckets?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, I think that still holds. We certainly will take a lot of debt off the table, but we have acquisitions. We've continued to fill the funnel on acquisitions. To the extent the prices are too high then we'll put money to work on stock buyback. But we have work to do to decide on that split, and we will be disciplined. We want to get back to creating the shareholder value we did in the first part of this.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Sorry, one more question for you. Randy, you've had a really nice run. The stock has done really well under your leadership. Where are you on succession planning here?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, look, it's direct, right. One of the most important things boards do is to ensure proper succession. And I think we have a robust plan and we have one that we're comfortable with. So, when there's something to announce, I'm sure the board will.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray, RBC. Your line is open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Deane.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey. So much for the one question, one follow-up, but I got – let me start off on the...
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
The script for the prepared remarks early, Deane. That's what we get.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. Maybe start with Aquatic, up 13%. Randy, I think, your comment was you weren't expecting quite to see this amount of strength. You called out dealer wins. You called out some new product introductions. But how would you parse out that 13% upside between those or other factors?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I think the market – I do think the market is strong. I think everyone is experienced. And I think we had an earlier year. I think a lot of – what we might have seen in April last year, we might have seen a lot of that in March, that's – March and April, you can see things swing back and forth. But, by and large, we've got some exciting new products in controls and in heating and lighting coming out. And we continue to gain new dealers. So, the playbook keeps working.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. And was weather at all a factor? February was fairly warm in the Northeast. Did that trigger any particular pull-in from maybe what you'd have seen in the second quarter?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, I think, right now, the industry is really optimistic. And they clearly were laying inventory in in the quarter, because they're expecting a good year. And I think weather probably helped that some.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. And then, over on Electrical, Hoffman ending its drought of growth after nine quarters. Which end markets were driving the uptick? Was it just easy comps? And can you comment on orders?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. When you take a look at the core Hoffman, it's really general industrial. Energy stabilized. They're part of energy, but it's just general industrial across the whole product range. And, again, I think, optimism played a role and distributors getting back to more normal stocking levels. But I don't think it was a pure stock up. I think it was selling through as well. And so, we exited with an order rate that was still sound and consistent with the first quarter.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Did you put a number on the order rate?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Mid-single-digits.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Deane.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell, Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Hi. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Just my first question is around the price of raw material topic which you mentioned a couple of times. Maybe just give us some historical context about how large that impact had been, say, six years ago, the last time input costs were a big factor. And how you look at the ability to get pricing in the context of what your competitors are doing.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, overall, I mean, we got about 1% price in Q1 and that's generally in line with what we expect to get. But what's more important is the predictability of the raw materials earlier than the pricing model works, right. So you go out with price increases and then you've got to figure out what's going to happen to materials. The materials are rising at a fairly quick rate. Steel, nickel, copper, those are our three main inputs to our material view. And it's just a matter of can we go out with another round of material – or pricing increases. Now, I think we were planning on about $50 million (23:02) of favorability from material as we – material and inflation as we headed into the year. And I think now, we're taking a look at maybe is that flattish. So given the upside in the revenue and also the acceleration of the cost out, we feel we're fine. But before we declare victory, we like to see it through Q2.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Understood. Thank you. And then if we look at the Electrical & Fastening business, you had a very nice kind of snapback, it looked like, in the first quarter versus what happened late 2016. Maybe give us some sense of how the cadence of that business moved through Q1 and how you look at things today in terms of the visibility there, because that business has been so volatile.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. The fourth quarter certainly was – it was not expected. And I do believe, looking back on it in hindsight, I think a lot of distributors were just – with the uncertainty around a number of things in our economy, they just didn't stock up, whereas that optimism returns and it returns pretty quickly. We saw as early as January that we have returned to a more normal state. And 7% growth is better than any quarter growth last year. So, we have some really differentiated products there and that helped with productivity in construction – in commercial construction. And I think we're getting good uptake on those products.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Thank you. And then just a last quick boring one. The adjustment to the GAAP earnings guidance – is that just due to those stock comp type issues and the restructuring that you'd mentioned?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
The main one we have is amortization. So, we show that to you both on operating income and then what we call EBITDA which puts the amortization back in. That's the main one.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
The cash earnings.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
And then, occasionally, we have restructuring that flows through that as well, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Okay. So, the change from before on the GAAP side is the restructuring?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Correct.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities:
Okay. Thank you.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran, Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Mike.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
So, on the cost out update, obviously, good execution so far in what you've laid out. What's the next step for you guys? Obviously, the two pieces are – it's now two segments and historically there's been some pieces within each segment you've been focused on. Is it more the same in driving the improvement in those pieces? Is there some other program that you guys are contemplating, maybe just thoughts on the next step from here?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, we really – the going into two segments was – as John said, it was to allow us and give us leverage to take the cost out and more than the stranded cost of the exit of Valves & Controls. And it let us really to streamline and simplify a lot. And so now we still have the same priorities we have on the Electrical side, some very attractive high profitability businesses that all have opportunities to grow. We want to get the organic growth and then we can augment that with bolt-ons. And then particularly in the Filtration area and the Aquatics area of Water, same thing. And we really have been more on the sidelines on a lot of that acquisition because of where we were with Valves & Controls in our debt levels. So, we'll be disciplined. We're not going to rush to the trough but we're excited to get back to growth because we want to show you. We know we can and we want to show you we will.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
On that acquisition side, maybe just talk about the quality of the funnel out there. Obviously, you had to start rebuilding it a little bit or at least to some extent after the V&C sale. What's it look like today? How full is it? I know you said it was filling up from a multiple perspective. Are you shut out at this point? Are there enough attractive things out there?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, shut out, we have – when we say disciplined, we don't believe in doing a deal just because it's quote strategic. We have to be able to make financial sense. And so on the Water side, things are pricey. On the Electrical side not so much. But we can be creative. We still have our ownerships, our European structure that's helpful. So, we still have some bullets in the gun or we're putting bullets back in the gun.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Appreciate the time, guys. Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Scott Graham, BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey. Good morning. Nice quarter.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Scott.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
So, could you give us a little bit more end-market detail on Flow as well as – Flow Technologies that is, as well as the Electrical & Fastening? You gave us the pluses in Flow. Can you give us the larger minuses, obviously, ag and then on the Electrical & Fastening side sort of the puts and takes there as well?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
No. Actually ag was up in Flow for us, both in the Spray side and Irrigation side. It's really the larger pumps. That's the industrial pumps, fire protection, and the break and fix municipal that are the slow pieces both in Europe and the U.S.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. And that's slightly down is the way I would answer that, Scott. Obviously, Residential & Commercial is doing well. I think it's doing well everywhere but what we would call rural pump, rural submersible. We're seeing much more urban development and we're seeing that to the Water Filtration business. We're seeing that to our food service offerings. So Residential & Commercial, as Randy mentioned, even Electrical, CADDY very strong which is in the EFS business that we have. Municipal, it's okay. I mean I think everybody expected a big push in the infrastructure. We're not seeing headwinds there but we're not seeing the tailwinds of growth either. And then industrial, through what Randy mentioned in our Hoffman order take up mid to high-single-digits on orders, which we haven't seen growth in that space in a while. So that was nice to see, the recovery. So, overall, I would say food and beverage continues to get better. We had the large headwinds last year as we saw the mergers take place and some of the capital be delayed but that's returned. So, overall, right now, the verticals are moving forward in a very positive way and our only caution is that we have a lot of work to do this year. And one quarter behind us is good, but we have to now deliver on the commitments for the next three and that's what we're working on.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Good progression. The other question I have for you was essentially on pricing and obviously there's a couple questions here on price/cost and you guys called it out. I'm a little curious about that because steel prices really start to rise last summer and then kind of reaccelerated several months back. And copper/nickel for sure have been more recent inflation issues. But you have market-leading businesses across most of portfolio. A lot of your business is shorter cycle. Is there any reason why you're not out with price increases maybe more broadly already?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes, Scott. I mean real quick and I'll let Randy answer. I mean, I think, first of all, we have good discipline around locking material. We don't like to gamble or play the hedge bets here, right. So we go out and we lock our material in a disciplined way. What we're up against a little bit though and we shared this before is euro. And, certainly, the stronger dollar allows for potentially European-based competitors into the market and they're getting the benefits of their weaker currency. And that's a dynamic we haven't seen in the last several years. So it came about last year and we're monitoring that. Now, where we think we have the opportunity to raise price, we will, but at the same time, we're not going to lose share. And we're going to manage the sourcing end of the material inflation as well.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
And I would just add. One of the marks of an attractive business to us is – and it's a true tell, is do you have any kind of pricing leverage in your industry. If you do, then you probably have some differentiation. If you don't, they you probably don't. And it's a simple test that we use. And so yes, we in all of our businesses have pricing capability. What we want to do is make sure that we don't get out of whack with market share. And so we're trying to be more nuanced about it because we haven't grown enough.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Understood Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
All right. Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe, Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks, guys. Since we've abandoned the one question, one follow-up, I've got five questions here.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Well, we've got three answers for you.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Just kidding. Only four questions. So, John, you mentioned the municipals soft, not getting worse, not getting better. But if you look at the (32:57) data, it does feel like water/wastewater is significantly weaker since the election. I know it's not that big for you guys, but is that one reason why you're a little bit more cautious perhaps than perhaps 1Q would suggest or is that too small to really move the needle?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, too small to really move the needle, Nigel. I just think that we're not counting on any huge tailwind there from any reinvestments in the government, et cetera. We never have. Even when we've seen the big programs being invested on, we've not yet – we never really saw the realization of those investments. So, it's not a big enough of matter, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then, Randy, you alluded that there was some channel rebuilds in driving that Electrical plus 7% performance. Is that based on just sort of conversations with the customers or is it based on POS data? I'm wondering was inventory a factor elsewhere across the portfolio?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I think we need to do a better job of getting real sell-through from a lot of distributor – in all of our businesses. But from the indications we have, it is selling through. But I think – there was a real sense of – real surge of optimism, frankly, after the election, if you look at the timing of it. It didn't really hit in December. It was certainly when people got back from Christmas. You just saw business start to flow again. And some of that was restocking but most of it we believe was flowing through. Distributors are much more effective at keeping their stocks low and counting on manufacturers to deliver quickly to refill. And that's across the board. That's in every industry.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's great. And then just finally, we've shut a box around this already but on the refi post V&C close, John, can you maybe just gives us any additional color in terms of gross proceeds that you're planning to pay down debt with and any kind of breakage fees that you would expect on the refis?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, we'll be approaching somewhere around $3 billion in net proceeds, is what we think we'll be bringing in. And, obviously, our breakage will be minimal, so let's say less than a $100 million. And so we've got a lot of cash to work with on the refinancing and we'll run out of – in some cases with our cash generation this year what we're saying is we'll run out of debt to actually pay down. And so that forces us to...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
So high quality problems.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
So high quality problem but that's where the M&A and the buyback discussion start to come in because we wouldn't want to be sitting on cash and not putting it to work. But we have to do it in a disciplined way and we have to monitor the right acquisitions or is it time to go out and buy back a little bit of stock.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Let's be clear. Your guidance doesn't assume any buybacks?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That's correct.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Joe.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey. So just a quick question. Look, your sales number was better than we expected this quarter. But this thought process around giving an adjusted core sales number, are you guys trying to signal that the large project business is basically going to de minimis or what is kind of like the thought process behind giving that number?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I've told our businesses, no more. There's no more of this – this is the last time.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
These are three large oil sand projects that were won and it really represents the end of the reset in the energy market. And they completed in 2016 and this year we have a headwind. But really what we're trying to do is give you both, right. So, we're giving you the volume, the price, and then we're sharing with you what those jobs are. And what we want to do is make sure that we take a look at what we're going to be exiting from an organic growth rate and what we should expect in these businesses as we go forward into 2018.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And then I may have missed it earlier, but the impact from large projects for the rest of the year, clearly it was a big impact in Q1, but what's the impact for Q2 to Q4?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. As we said, Q2 was around $33 million, which is $30 million in Electrical. And then we're about $27 million in Q3 and we're $10 million in Q4. And all of that was listed in the Q4 earnings where we gave the guidance for 2017.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Cool. Thanks, no, that's helpful. And then I guess just a couple quick ones. The Electrical margins got off to a little bit of a slower start than we expected. I know there's been a lot of discussion here on price/cost. But you have that ramping back up to 23% for the full year. And so, maybe talk a little bit about some of the puts this quarter and then where you really start to see a pick-up in Q2 through Q4?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
It's the ramp of the cost and it's in the first quarter. And it was really – John mentioned it earlier, the big projects we just talked about. It was shipping all products and so the margins on that were very high, in Q1. And then the margins fell off in Q2, Q3, and Q4. So that was really the two – that was the pressures in the Electrical side and we expect them to get better. So we expect the margins to look better going forward.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. So you just have easier comps as you kind of head through the year and – okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That seems to make sense.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
And the cost out will read out.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And the cost out. Okay. And then I guess maybe just lastly, you touched on V&C, but maybe just a real quick update on untangling those assets and your confidence on being able to close by month end?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I have great confidence. I'm really grateful of the Pentair team and the Emerson people who've worked on it too. I'm grateful. I'm proud of the work they did. We've been ready to close this for a while, so – both sides. So I have high confidence that we can close when they tell us we can close.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. But is it – I mean, are you guys still planning to close this week or is this something that can push out a little bit further into May, June?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
In the coming days; we're waiting for two – we're waiting for Mexico and the United States and we feel good about them, but we can't close until we get the official word.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got you. Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Just on the Electrical 2Q guide. I just want to get a better sense of kind of where the caution still lies. Just, it sounds like the order rates in Hoffman are better, MROs picking up in Thermal, and it seems like ERICO, 1Q is maybe the better trend versus 4Q. So, what gives you the most pause?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Just execution, Jeff. I mean I think – we want to see – we haven't grown at the mid-single-digit rate, as Randy mentioned, in a couple years. And when that happens, you've got to get your delivery and your execution done. We were moving a factory and we still are moving a factory. And we've received significant volume into that factory. And so, we delayed it from Q1 into Q2 and we're in the process of closing that factory, exiting it. And so, we're managing a lot of things simultaneously. That's all it is, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. But there is no indication that there's any delivery issues or...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
No.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, just on the Water guide for 2Q, does that reflect any kind of timing or pull forward that you think might have happened in the 1Q results?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. It does. I mean, I think we usually know the pool season. But we can't always time it by the precision of the month. And so, we did have a strong Q1 and, therefore, we think it will be a slightly less strong Q2, still strong, but a little less strong, as we see how that sell-through gets managed and that inventory gets managed by distributors.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Walsh, Vertical Research. Your line is open.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, John.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
A lot of ground covered, so just kind of two quick cleanup ones from me. In terms of the $21 million of restructuring, does that all have at least a 1 for 1 payback, and maybe you can characterize what those actions are?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. That $21 million is reflecting what we're talking about as the $75 million. So, it's better than 1 to 1, and that's the cost efforts – or that's the restructuring actions that are leading to the net cost out that we're referring to.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got you. Understood. And then as we think about the ability for additional capital allocation maybe kind of level set us what the number of capacity you have is? I mean if you go back – you used to talk about running the business 3 time levered. Is that still right? Is it closer to 2? How should we think about that just to kind of level set us all on what the actual capacity you're thinking about?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I think about 2.5 is the steady state. We can go above 3 occasionally, but 2.5, 3 at the top.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
All right. Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
You guys took the organic sales number up a point. Can you maybe split that out between the impact of raw material inflation and assumed price increases and volume increases?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I don't know if I understand it. I mean you said...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Price and volume.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Price and volume. Okay. I mean, all we did was take the Q1 number and we let it ride through the year. We kept Q2, Q3, and Q4 exactly the same, adjusting only for the debt in V&C. So, I think, I would answer your question it was all volume.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. So, in your guidance for the rest of the year for the top-line, there's no impact from assumed price increases in response to these raw material increases?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No, there is none.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And then, on the 4Q call, you guys had guided to $39 million of large project headwinds and that shook out at $49 million. Can you reconcile those two numbers?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. There's an incremental $10 million related to project accruals that we took in Q1 that were anticipated project settlement cost that we had related to those projects last year. So, it took down the revenue number in Q1 by approximately $10 million.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. That's all I had. Thank you. I'll stick to my two questions.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Drab, William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask on the raw materials again. I don't know, John, if you could give us any sort of sense or how cost breaks down in terms of raws, overhead, labor? And then within the materials, how big a percentage is steel versus copper? And the main thing that I am still just trying to figure out is how do you deal with 50%-ish increase in steel and these other raws and only increase – have to increase price 1 to 2 points to stay flat in terms of that headwind or tailwind that you mentioned that went from 15 to flat on raws?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So real quick, I think we don't want to overdo this. I think our material is 38% of sales, right, roughly for Pentair. And our largest commodity purchase is around $200 million and most of the other clients we're talking to is about $100 million, $150 million on an annual basis. So, the big increases are also mitigated by the locks that we talked about earlier, but the timing of when we lock versus the timing when we price is sometimes disconnected. So, we're identifying maybe $10 million to $12 million material risks in the back half of the year. And if the volumes continue, we feel like we've got enough to offset that right now, even if we didn't get incremental price increases. But we're monitoring all this as we go through the year and we're listening to the same earnings call as you are. And we're hearing that price isn't easy to come by in the end markets. And that's why we're not as confident that we can just push through another price increase. So that's what we're managing. And right now I just want to clarify. We have not adjusted Q2, Q3 and Q4. And we're admitting that there might be some upside volume but we're also sharing with you that there could be some upside material risk – or downside material risk.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Okay. Got it. And then, I think I just missed this earlier but did you talk about pre-buy activity in the Aquatics business first quarter 2017 versus first quarter 2016 and maybe what the difference in incentives were between those period?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
There was really no difference, actually. The higher growth was really just normal business. It wasn't early buy.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Product going though.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Which is – yeah, just standard order, which is a bullish sign on us in a bullish business.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
All right. Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Barry from Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Would you mind giving us some color on how you expect each of these sub-segments to track this year within Water and within Electrical?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, we talk about the segments, is that what you're asking about?
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Like the general outlook for growth in Enclosures versus Thermal versus Electrical and Filtration versus Flow versus Aquatic?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I think that's a little more granular than we'd want to go to at this point for a forecast. I mean, what I said was what we gave on the – whatever we gave for guidance in Q4, into Q1 the only thing that's changed is Q1 performance and we haven't assumed any updates to the forecast of any of these throughout the year. And that's why we're waiting, is to see how Q2 comes out and then we would update all this information.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. And the $15 million of favorability on price or cost – was that – that went to flat. Is that a net number, price net of cost?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That's material source net of inflation.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. And then just to – yeah, I'm sorry.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
$15 million was assumed and what I'm saying is a worst-case scenario would be close to flat.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Okay. So, flat is not in the outlook?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Flat is not currently in this outlook, no.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
I see. And then just finally, earlier, John, I think you'd made a comment that it's kind of easier or harder to get price in some places than others, I guess just depending on that end market dynamics. And where are the areas that are a little more challenging to get price now?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Basically fast growth markets is always a challenge. That's the most challenging place. And, as John said, we're dollar-denominated in most – to the most part and so the dollar is strong, so any place where we're competing with the euro-based competitors.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. Thank you.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa, JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Didn't we hear from you? Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. Yeah. Just with Deane taking a shot at me, I just wanted to clarify that you guys didn't feel about sort of like some other companies do. So it was a very trend intro. And the fact that I'm getting a follow-up here means that we could end the call 10 minutes early but I just wanted to clarify something. On the proceeds, you had said $3 billion or something like that. Is there any change in the amount of net proceeds you're going to pull in here or is it still the same? I think you had initially said $2.6 billion, maybe just rounding.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hi, Steve. You're listening. It was originally $2.7 billion. We are approaching closer to the $3 billion mark. We believe the taxes are going to be a little bit more favorable to us than originally estimated. And then we also have timings of the accruals and the working capital and the cash performance of the business.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll leave the small talk – the rest of small talks for offline with Jim. Thanks a lot, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
This ends the Q&A session of the call. And we'll now turn it back over to Randy Hogan for final comments.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
All right. Thank you. Thanks all for your interest and all the questions. As we communicated last quarter, 2017 is a transition year for Pentair. And we believe that our first quarter performance is a solid start. We're days away from the expected closing of our sales of Valves & Controls and look forward to regaining a stronger balance sheet. Of course we're going to remain disciplined in our capital allocation strategies. When we have more on that, we will announce it. We're even more confident in our ability to drive double-digit EPS growth for full year 2017. And we continue to position the company for continued long-term success. Thanks again for your interest in Pentair.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's Pentair first quarter earnings conference call. The call will be available for replay beginning at 12:00 noon Eastern Standard Time today through to 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time on May the 25, 2017. The conference ID number for the replay is 55576170. Again, the conference ID number for replay is 55576170. The number to dial for the replay is 800-585-8367 or 855-859-2056 and internationally 404-537-3406. Thank you. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc
Analysts:
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Pentair's Q4 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Matthew, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2016 earnings conference call. We're glad you can join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter 2016 performance as well as our first quarter and full-year 2017 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section on Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Jim. 2016 was a historic year for Pentair as we marked our 50th anniversary as a company. The year was memorable for many other reasons but, unfortunately, the challenges with the energy and industrial markets made from memories that we're looking forward to putting in the rear-view mirror. We were disappointed to have to lower our fourth quarter guidance, but we delivered against to revise expectations. When looking at 2016 on a full year basis, we did have some good memories to point to. Including ERICO, sales grew 6%. Segment income was up 11% and adjusted EPS grew 8%. And we had a very good free cash flow year with 109% conversion of adjusted net income. Now on a core basis, sales were down 1% and segment income was up slightly, which was in line with results from other industrials. Water Quality Systems was the strong performer for us once again. We have improvements to make in Flow & Filtration Solutions and Technical Solutions and those improvements are underway. As we change the structure to be simpler and more streamlined post-Valve & Controls, we're moving from three segments to two. We're combining the former Water Quality Systems and Flow & Filtration Solutions into one Water segment as this will allow us to better execute our Water strategy and lead to more predictable long-term growth. As an update, we believe the sales of our Valve & Controls business remains on-track for close in early 2017. We continue to make good progress on aligning our cost structure with the reality of a slower growth world, as well as repositioning the company with the divesture of Valves & Controls. Finally, we're introducing formal 2017 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.45 to $3.55, which represents 15% growth at the midpoint of the range. This guidance assumes the sale of Valves & Controls closes by the end of the first quarter of 2017. John will walk through the guidance in more detail later in the call. Now, let's turn to slide 5 for a discussion of our full year 2016 results. For 2016, total sales grew 6% with core sales declining 1%. As I mentioned previously, segment income grew 11% and operating margins expanded 80 basis points. Adjusted EPS grew 8%. We're most pleased with our robust cash flow performance after being somewhat disappointed on this important metric last year. In 2016, we generated free cash flow from continuing operations of $609 million which represented 109% conversion to adjusted net income. Total free cash flow including discontinued operations was $770 million. Overall, despite the top-line challenges in 2016, we were pleased with our income, margin, and cash flow performance during this year of change. Now, let's turn to slide 6 for details on Pentair's Q4 2016 performance. As we foreshadowed in October, we knew the fourth quarter would have its share of challenges. As expected, we saw many distributors on our short cycle business take a pause on ordering in the quarter, particularly in October. We saw trend start to stabilize in December and order rates, overall, improved as we exited the quarter. Core sales for the fourth quarter were down 7%. We had 6 percentage point impact from 4 fewer selling days. We knew this was going to occur so it's important to point out that we do not see the fourth quarter growth rates as a trend because of this impact. We make good progress during the quarter in executing our cost-out initiatives and we expect them to begin reading out as the new year unfolds. Now, let's turn to slide 7 for a look at Water Quality Systems performance in Q4. Water Quality Systems reported core sales growth of 2% or up 8% when excluding the impact of fewer selling days. Aquatic & Environmental Systems led the way with nearly double-digit core sales growth on the same basis. The Aquatics business delivered growth against a very tough comparison and continues to make good progress in adding new dealers and introducing a steady stream of new products. The Water Filtration business was down modestly when excluding the impact of fewer selling days. The residential side of Water Filtration was focused on reducing complexity during the year with a renewed focus on its go-to-market strategy to improve growth which was somewhat muted for the full year. On the foodservice side of the business, we saw a broad-based pause globally in new installations particularly internationally. We were, however, encouraged to see an improvement in orders in the fourth quarter. Now, let's move to slide 8 for a look at Flow & Filtration Solutions performance in Q4. With Flow & Filtration Solutions, we've been focused on reducing complexity and driving margin improvement. We made some progress in 2016 and we see some signs of stabilization improvement in areas like agriculture and North America infrastructure. For the Water Technologies business, fourth quarter core sales excluding the impact of fewer selling days, declined 7%. The business faced a number of challenges in the quarter as commercial and international orders slowed along with continued declines in irrigation. This was further exacerbated at the end of the year as distributors slowed their orders. Core sales for Fluid Solutions grew in the quarter, adjusting for the fewer selling days. The precision spray business grew for the second consecutive quarter in a soft agriculture market. This business has consistently demonstrated its ability to deliver differentiated growth through geographic expansion and expanding its customer base. On the beverage side of the business, we saw strong orders in both beer membrane filtration and biogas. Finally, Process Filtration once again faced a challenging comparison and core sales were down, in line with expectations. But encouragingly, we saw orders increased for the second consecutive quarter. Now, let's turn to slide 9 to discuss how Technical Solutions performed in the fourth quarter. Technical Solutions is the remaining segment with the broadest exposure to energy and industrial and, not surprisingly, faced a number of challenges in 2016. For the fourth quarter, our Enclosures core sales were down modestly, excluding the impact from the fewer selling days as we saw a number of telecom order deferrals. But we were encouraged with further improvements of the daily order rate in short cycle North American industrial orders. Thermal Management faced two challenges in the fourth quarter
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 13 titled full year 2017 Pentair outlook. As Randy mentioned, for the full year 2017, we're expecting overall Pentair EPS to be around $3.45 to $3.55 on an adjusted basis. This guidance assumes the sale of Valves & Controls closes by the end of the first quarter of 2017. We expect to achieve this guidance on core revenue of down 3% and margin expansion of 120 basis points, driven by simplifying the organization and the resulting cost-out from those efforts. Please turn to slide 14 labeled 2017 forecasted revenue. Slide 14 walks our revenue from the reported $4.89 billion of revenue in 2016 to our expected revenue of approximately $4.7 billion, inclusive of the large jobs and foreign exchange headwinds. Starting on the left, we expect volume, inclusive of one dairy job in Water and three large oil sands jobs in Electrical, to impact revenue by about four points. Excluding the impact of the large jobs, we are expecting volume to be down around two points. We're anticipating one point of favorable pricing and about one point from tuck-in acquisitions already completed. These two acquisitions consist of a small tuck-in to our Electrical & Fastening Solutions strategic business group and a biogas recovery acquisition in the Filtration & Process SBG. So, excluding the impact of year-over-year currency, we expect revenue to be down around 2%. Inclusive of another $75 million of revenue headwind at around $1.05 to the euro, we expect overall reported 2017 revenue to be down around 3% versus 2016. Please turn to slide 15 labeled 2017 forecasted segment income. On slide 15, we're walking 2016 reported segment income to expected 2017 segment income. Starting with 2016, we expect about $20 million of total headwind of the net of volume growth, $8 million from the acquisitions, price and large jobs. We expect $135 million of gross cost-out from both material and labor and we expect to generate $60 million in net benefit after the impact of about 2% of inflation in material and wages. This drives about a 5% segment income growth year-over-year versus 2016. After the impact of about $10 million of FX, we are at $870 million of segment income at the midpoint, which is up about 4% year-over-year on a reported basis. Please turn to slide 16 labeled 2017 forecasted adjusted EPS walk. Slide 16 walks EPS from 2016 to 2017. Starting from the left, you see there is about $0.15 of headwind from the large jobs and FX and about $0.30 or 10% expansion from net cost-out and growth in price. Another 10% or about $0.30 comes from the expected closure of Valves & Controls by the end of the first quarter and the resulting three quarters of interest benefit from paying down the debt or about $0.09 to $0.10 per quarter. This takes us to our $0.50 at the midpoint or up about 15% versus the $3.05 in 2016. Please turn to slide 17 labeled anticipated 2017 sales and income seasonality. Slide 17 shows the expected 2017 seasonality of our revenue, segment income, and EPS versus 2016. You could see that revenue and segment income are in line with contribution percentages in 2016. The only difference is EPS, which is skewed by the interest benefit in Q2 through Q4 and no contribution of this interest savings in Q1. Excluding the interest, operational EPS would be in line with 2016. Please turn to slide 18 labeled Q1 2017 Pentair outlook. Slide 18 shows you our expected earnings per share estimates for Q1 of about $0.61, which is flat with the comparable period one year ago. You could see that we expect core sales to be down around 4 points or down 1 point excluding the impact of large jobs. We expect ROS expansion of 20 basis points, driven by the headwinds from the large jobs and the fact that we have yet to receive the full run rate benefits of the cost takeout which we are expecting in Q2 through Q4. Overall, adjusted EPS for Q1 is anticipated to be flat year-over-year. We're expecting our tax rate should be 20%, which is consistent with 2016. We expect net interest expense of $35 million as we will not yet have any debt pay-down benefit. Finally, we expect shares to be a little higher at 184 million, which does not yet reflect any benefit of the approximately $100 million in buyback that we anticipate to benefit us in Q2 through Q4. As a reminder, cash flow in Q1 is usually a usage, given our normal seasonality of cash flows. Please turn to slide 19 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. My final slide shares with you our current balance sheet and cash flow performance. As Randy mentioned, we had another strong year of cash flow at $609 million or 109% of adjusted net income for our continuing operations businesses. You could see our debt levels before our anticipated net proceeds from our Valves & Controls divestiture. We expect to use the proceeds to immediately reduce our debt levels. I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A after which, Randy will have a few closing remarks. Matthew, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Can you just walk through the $135 million in productivity savings for next year? It's a pretty significant bump-up. What's the visibility around that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, good visibility, first of all, Steve. I mean, the simplification of the organization is driving tremendous amount of opportunity to take incremental cost out. But if you think about it, we're going to – we're expecting to get $59 million or $60 million of material productivity against an inflation number of $45 million, $46 million. So, we're starting to be squeezed a little bit on the benefit and material productivity versus inflation. But we expect our net cost-out actions from the people cost minus any delta on inflation and/or compensation to yield us close to $45 million on a net basis.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. That makes sense. And then on just the interest expense, the run rate exiting the year is definitely lower than what we were expecting. Are you guys – is the refi of the debt kind of in line with what you guys had talked about previously? Or is there more debt pay-down? Anything changed on that front?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. It's just that as we collected cash in the quarter, we trickled down the debt a little bit, Steve. And so, we expect to be maybe slightly lower in Q1, and then we'll see the significant benefits in Q2, Q3, and Q4.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC. Your line is open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Deane.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Maybe just start with the 4Q kind of tone of business. One of the things you talked about heading into the quarter was don't expect any sort of normal seasonality, no budget flush, and kind of see more of the same deferrals of MRO and so forth. And so, how did it play out from a broad level in terms of what you would typically see in a 4Q?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Across the number of the businesses, as I mentioned in the prepared script, October was soft. And then, we saw a return to more normal levels except in a couple of different segments where, basically, distributors weren't remotely close to getting rebates, so they were particularly slow. The deferral in Thermal is not surprising given the – well, people are optimistic about energy. That has not really improved the spending, particularly in the larger companies. But I'd say that rates are stable and we're not assuming a bounce-back in our forecast in 2017 until we see something. So, that's how – I guess that's – (23:14)?
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And then, in the change to the core revenue outlook, previously, minus 2% to positive 2%. You're now at minus 3%. You discussed, at a high level, the impact of the jobs. So, maybe just kind of next layer of detail, how did this play out in the quarter? Have you ring-fenced this in terms of its impact with regard to being at the lower – below the low end of the core revenues?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I mean, just to cut through it, I think our core revenue, if you exclude the projects, is down about 0.6%. Let's round it to down 1%. That's generally where we were this year. And so, what Randy is saying is we don't see an improvement off of the run rates that we're at. I think we're as optimistic as anyone that we'll start to see some improvement in the industrial spending and also some return to normal spending on the downstream MRO activities. But right now, our forecast does not assume any of that.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. We've been head-faked on it before. We're not going to (24:21) again.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And just last question for me conceptually going to one segment in Water. You've got these SBGs. So, it's Filtration and Flow and Aquatics, but each of them has such a different growth potential, different end markets, different technologies. Will we still get line of sight and clarity into the SBGs on a go-forward basis? Will you have margin targets within them? Just kind of give us some color there, please?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, of course, we will. And what we see is more coherent strategy, particularly on much, much better coordination on the technology side between, say, the Residential Filtration all the way through to the process industry. I mean, these are technologies that can be applied and much more seamlessly and we can flow resources to the best growth opportunities. So, yeah, we will have separate targets. And for example in Water Technologies, it's still a margin. We can improve margin there. That's the focus there. And on the Filtration side, it's driving growth like we already have good margins, we want to drive growth like we're getting in Aquatics.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks, and good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Can we just start – I guess I'm about to lose visibility of Flow & Filtration margins with the re-segmentation. So, where do you see yourselves in terms of the margin improvement initiatives that are going on? I could obviously see what happened in the quarter, but it doesn't really probably tell the full story given with 5% productivity versus price and all that. Maybe just in price, can you talk about that a little bit?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I think one of the things that we wanted to do in Water is we want to make sure that we can rise up and invest appropriately across the entire water space. And when you subdivide into segments, you lose that ability to generate the cash and deploy the cash back to the best growth opportunities. And there are good growth opportunities in the old Flow & Filtration space. At the same time, there is margin needs and the need to get the complexity out of it, as Randy said, the pump side of the business where there has been significant competition globally in that space. So, when we take a look at these margins – and when we get to Analyst Day, we'll certainly give you guys direction in where we are. But the real opportunity here is to say how do we disproportionally invest in the longer term. So, these are all high margin businesses with Aquatics being the highest margin and Flow being the lowest margin. But I think, ultimately, we think that they're all – got 20%-plus margin potential, Steve. On the pricing side, we're getting a little bit more price and we expect to because of commodity inflation that we're seeing. And so, where we have the distribution-related businesses, we're seeing that work its way into somewhere around the 1% range. And then where we're in projects, where we're against global competition because of the challenges of the currency, we're not getting any price. And we're obviously taking a look at those jobs and making sure that we understand the currency impact in competing on that basis.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And on the reorganization, you talked about simplification and cost-out as being one of the benefits of this. But I didn't see any kind of restructuring built into the 2017 plan on that front. Maybe some idea of how you're thinking about that?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, a lot of the costs we're taking out – we have operating people at corporate in three segments. It's basically that the cost and the productivity that John talked about earlier, that's the real benefit of it. And we're taking out structure which we believe is going to improve our focus and our ability to execute.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah and...
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Without restructuring...
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
(28:36) of total restructuring cost is the estimate and that would have been spanned over the last Q3, Q4 and into Q1 of 2017.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Perfect. And just lastly on ERICO. That was, I think, really I hope to stabilize portfolio. Here's a quarter where it was down 4% excluding days impact on Engineered Fastening. Maybe – and I know you talked about some of the dynamics there, but was this surprising to you or how do you think about the dynamics of that segment?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
They surely saw an acute softness in October and it recovered. But we don't know whether we saw that in three separate businesses that were unrelated to each other. So, we think it was more channel softness that then firmed up again and there's more optimism now. So, yeah, we didn't expect – and we're back to where we thought we'd be.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Thank you. Just a question. There's a lot of talk throughout the release of the large jobs impact and you also mentioned the sort of merits of predictable growth in your prepared remarks. So, could we assume that there has been – or there's a potential change in focus underway, away from bidding on a lot of large jobs activity? And maybe give us some sense, overall, under your definition of large jobs, how much of that $4.9 billion sales base last year came from them.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, good question. I think when you take a look at the roughly $90 million to $100 million of job impact that we're expecting in Technical Solutions, which is now Electrical, that's all in Thermal. And in fact, we were actually up slightly in 2016 revenue versus 2015, and 2015 and 2014 were flat. So, we've run historically roughly this $100 million to $125 million through the pipeline of always having larger jobs. With what has happened in the global oil and gas investment space, that landscape is clearly changing, and I'll let Randy talk to that.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I mean, we're excited to win those jobs even as the energy markets turn down. They had a longer tail now. And now that they've gone down, there just aren't a lot of those large projects in hostile environment. It's basically cold environments, it's where the thermal big projects are. And there aren't as many developments there. So, we're not focused there. We're focused on making sure we get all of the MRO in Thermal we can and focusing on that more profitable. That was one of the challenges on our margins in Technical Solutions, those project margins versus MRO. And we are more focused on driving the MRO.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Got it. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
So, while the top line gets affected by the lack of projects, we don't think the bottom line is as affected.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Understood. Thank you. And then my follow-up would be around just the margin opportunities on the sort of two new segmentation bases. Should we assume, I guess, the Water margins expand in 2017 at a much faster rate than Electrical just because there's less of a large jobs impact? And maybe talk a little bit about sort of medium term margin expansion across the two segments on the new bases.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, actually, Electrical, we expect margins to snap back. They took a – they went backwards in 2016 versus where they've been. So, (32:32).
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Well, yeah, I mean, we're looking at the same general margin expansions of both the businesses of low hundreds of basis points expansion. I think we get there in two different ways. I mean, we have a little bit more growth contribution in the Water side. And in the Electrical side, we have the benefit, as Randy mentioned, between not having the margin squeeze of the projects and we also have a fair amount of cost take-out planned relative to the volume rightsizing. I mean, as we go forward, I mean, clearly, the biggest margin opportunity is going to be in the Water side, certainly in the focused areas that Randy mentioned earlier. And we're going to see the growth contribution in the Electrical as the markets begin to recover, generate some substantial drop-through as they're higher margin businesses already.
Julian Mitchell - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan from UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. So, just on the marketing hire, can you give a little more color on sort of why now and why create that new role now? I mean, the growth challenge has sort of been something that persisted for a while. So, why make the move now and what do you expect it to deliver?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, we've actually been working on the move for a while, trying to find the right person who had experience and capability in marketing and had actually done it in industrial. So, John has worked in a number of companies including Honeywell and Kennametal and his track record is very, very helpful. So, he's going to work with our two Presidents, Beth and Karl, and me, to make sure that we have deployed people in the right place and that we are driving stronger execution on the marketing programs of the company.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then, John, on the decisions around what to do with the proceeds from Valves & Controls, looks like you're pretty much mostly delevering a little bit of buyback. Can you just talk about the thought process of why you chose that route and then thoughts around relevering and ideal leverage ratio?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I think first of all, just introducing some modest buyback is important to us. I mean, taking care of the creep and also just making sure that we're consistently doing that on a basis. So, we're talking about $100 million, it's a modest amount. And as far as paying the debt down, we expect that we'll bring the debt levels down. We have strong cash flow generation that can fund bolt-on acquisitions. And if we need to borrow a little bit more, we got plenty of capacity to borrow under all of our current capacity lines to fund the bolt-on or tuck-in acquisition path that we expect to embark upon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Robert Baird. Your line is open.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
So, on the productivity side, just back to that $135 million. Could you just bucket out where that's coming from kind of highlighting what portion of that is stranded cost, and where the opportunity set, how that looks like? And the other piece is, obviously, from the other comments, Flow & Filtration remained the focus, but just a little more granularity.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Good question, Mike. I mean, I think we are focused on the stranded cost in the beginning. But we're really looking at is enterprise-wide reduction. So, how do we get best optimal finance cost across the entire organization? How do we get the best HR cost across the organization? So, what we've done is taken a look, as Randy mentioned, and functionalized the G&A aspects to the corporate executives and we've driven about a 10% expectation reduction off of those. And happy to say that we've made good progress against those, and embarrassed to say it was easy. But, I think we were doing a lot of costs to support the Valves & Controls organization, the global nature. And post-Valves & Controls, we have a much simpler organization to support. So, there's a huge opportunity there. Other things, we're moving 52 selling teams to 6. Obviously, some big opportunity from a structure standpoint there. So, we didn't have, at the SBG level, the selling organization. Those exist today. And so, a ton of opportunities especially after – in the non-scaled regions in the fast growth areas, same with marketing, same with technology, same with all of those structures. So, that gives you a little bit of an insight to, as Randy mentioned, the simplification of the organization structure. But more importantly, the accountability of the organization structure and the ability for us to have visibility to who's performing, who's not, and then how to partner with them to achieve it.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. That's helpful. And then just a clarification from earlier. It sounds like you guys are saying no fundamental improvement from current run rate assumed in the 2017 guidance. Do I have that right? In other words, pretty normal sequential pattern assumed through here. Is that the thought process?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
If you look at the waterfall that John showed, you don't see a lot of lift from growth and that's where we'd expect higher execution in sales and any recovery of market would read out.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Appreciate the time, guys. Take care.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Walsh with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
So, I guess just going back to earlier question Deane asked around the Q3 framework. I mean, clearly, you would have had visibility into the projects back then. We're hearing from other companies kind of leveraged in the industrial world that things are getting better. It does sound like things obviously got better for you through the quarter. But are there any other kind of comments on why we're no longer looking at towards the high end of that or what would have to change to kind of get back to that framework?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I think in our original thought process, in the framework, we did see and expect a little uptick in some of the core markets. And in this particular guidance range, we're assuming that those don't occur. Now, we're hopeful like everybody else that they will. But right now, in this guidance framework, we're not assuming that they do.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. And then, I guess, a question about the new segmentation. I guess thinking about it from a structural tax inefficiency way, is there any inefficiency from actually splitting Water and Electrical from a tax perspective?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I don't know.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I don't know.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. All right. Well, thank you for the color.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey. Good morning. Two questions, one on organic sales, the little bit of lower guidance that you're putting out here today. Is that – I know you've just indicated that you're no longer expecting an uptick. But is part of the reduction maybe that you put pen to paper on these projects and said really kind of crystallize that for you in realizing that those are going to be non-repeats? Because that's a minus 2% for you? Is that part of it as well?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Scott, I mean, candidly, I will share with you that a big piece of what we're trying to figure out on a longer-term basis is the impact of a stronger dollar globally and the global competition and how that affects our growth views. And then there's a lot of global change that has occurred in the last three months, a new presidential administration, there's some emerging tax strategies there but none of that has been identified, none of that has been decided. So, what is the impact on that going to be to industrial investment? And also what's going to happen in Europe and are there going to counterviews (40:53) to any decisions that our administration makes. So, we see a lot of uncertainty, from an investment standpoint, in the first half of the year that I don't think we have the ability to call. So, what we're forecasting is what happened in Q4 continue to exist until there is some type of change.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
John, that's a really good answer – thank you – particularly the FX, which I wish more companies would call out. The other thing that I wanted to ask was about the impact of the organic decline vis-à-vis the $20 million worth of – in the waterfall. Is the $20 million enough? Or is there so much pricing or is the pricing component here enough where the minus $20 million kind of works? I mean, obviously, you're assuming that that's what works. But I guess with just a minus 3-ish organic, the minus $20 million looks like it could be a little bit deeper.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, the projects themselves didn't yield very much return, right? So, they're usually quoted on a more of a gross margin rate that's normally equal to a segment income or operating margin rate. And we did have some overruns in some of those jobs that forced those down as we took you through in Q3 and Q4. So, the price is a big factor as you got about 1% price increase helps that drop-through quite a bit.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. That's great. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Good color so far. So it seems that from your comments that channel distributor ordering activity is weak in the first half of the quarter, a little bit of – maybe some channel clearance. Just the inference would be that December was stronger and, therefore, given that's – I think you said, John, down 0.6% core sales ex large projects, ex days. So, therefore, that metric, would that be a positive number in December? Just thinking about the exit rate as we exit the year.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
You're talking about December of 2016?
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
December 2015. So, just thinking about once we cleared out the channel impact, would we be back to growth in December?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yes, a little bit, yes.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Okay. That's clear. But you're assuming that the run rate is for the quarter, not December?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No. I think we got to take a look at the quarter itself as the run rate and we're carrying that...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
4 days.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
...lesser days, yes.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then, just back to the cost reductions. Obviously, it's a big part of the bridge. How much of that, just to be clear, how much of that target is driven by the formation of the Water segment sort of gone from two to one in that segmentation?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I would say we think that there is an opportunity somewhere in the $15 million to $20 million range regarding that.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Okay. And then, just finally on the debt reduction, just to be clear, so the vast, vast majority of the proceed is being used to take down debt. Obviously, that includes some of the higher cost debt. Any sense yet on the breakage costs of doing that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No. But clearly, as the interest rate rises, it does make the costs lower for Pentair. So, obviously, looking at that every day, but we have not given guidance on what that impact is yet.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then just one more, if I may. On the large projects, is the bulk of that washed through by the second half of the year?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I think so.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. There is about – I'd say through Q3, the bulk of it is work-through, Q3.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks. Great. Thanks, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Or around Q4 (44:52). Yeah. That's on page 14.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Marketing [Markets]. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Jeff.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Just with – you mentioned the presidential change and some of the moving pieces, can you just talk about border adjustments, tariffs, and how you're manufacturing footprint kind of aligns with that? Are you – in your Mexico footprint – and how some changes there might impact your thinking?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
It's all speculation now. We're keenly watching and listening. We have plants all over the world. So, we're cautious and prepared to react whichever way it goes.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then just real quick, I don't know if I missed it, did you give a corporate expense number for the year?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We did not but we should assume that it's right around $100 million.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hello, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
John, could you just be a little bit more precise to what the total anticipated debt reduction is post the closure of the V&C deal?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That's roughly around $2.6 billion.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. So, pretty much all of it is going in there. I think you had talked before about planning to deploy a good chunk of that capital into either M&A or share repurchase. Can you talk about the decision over changing of that decision and to focus more on debt reduction now?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I think we always intended to, A, reduce the debt. And then, B, was to re-establish a more normal recurring buyback which is what I said was $100 million. And then we believe we're going to have a rich pipeline of opportunities which we call tuck-in or bolt-ons, which tend to be the smaller, much more strategic and highly-accretive opportunities.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
And we'll lever up to do the ones that are prudent and create shareholder value. But we don't want the money sitting around on our balance sheet. We're waiting on that.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Fair enough. And then I think in response to Steve's first question, you talked about $45 million of cost out in 2017. When we talked about this a few months ago, that number was a fair bit higher. Is that number a fair bit higher on a run-rate basis, and it takes some time to work up to get that $45 million? And what's kind of the run rate that you would assume for simplification/cost-out of the organization post the divestiture of the Valves & Controls business?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Just a couple of clarifications, we showed $60 million of net productivity. So, think of that as $15 million of net material and $45 million of net labor. And we do have labor inflation globally and that's the difference between the numbers we previously talked about, and these are net numbers versus gross numbers. And the other was gross, right.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then just on the project in cold areas, if the U.S. government now looking like they're going to go ahead and approve Keystone and Dakota Access, what kind of opportunity would that be for you guys?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I think eventually, it probably will help the oil sands be more competitive, eventually when completed.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Is there any numbers you could frame around that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Could not.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
It would be speculative at this point...
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. Okay. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning. Just on the re-consolidating of Water, you split it at one point after the Valves & Controls acquisition. So, I'm just wondering what the idea was in previously splitting that, that didn't hold or maybe that was always an interim structure for a specified goal.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Chris, we did it then so we could have a focused leadership over the different parts. We were more complex when we picked up three businesses, when we did Flow Control. And we just felt like it would get more focused leadership that way. What we've found as we simplified, right, and selling Valves, a (50:01) big a piece of the business, as we looked at simplifying the organization – I think we said it was like $27 million of stranded costs, we said there's really more we can do and there's ways we can streamline. And also as we looked at growth and we looked at where resources were in Water, we really felt that we want to remove the barriers, organizational barriers so that we could flow – John mentioned earlier all the different sales forces. We're overstaffed in some sales forces, understaffed in others. We need to be able to make the organization more facile in moving those investments around. So, that essentially is the new thought.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That makes sense. Was there any notion at any point that Flow & Filtration was under any kind of strategic review?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
No.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Got it.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
We've made progress on margins there and some of our best growth talent was on the other side. So, we've made it easier to move folks.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Sounds good.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to the presenters.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Okay. Thank you very much, and thanks for all of your questions and your attention over the last hour. We believe our move to two segments better positions us for more predictable long-term organic growth while also improving the cost structure of the organization post Valves & Controls. We look forward to completing the sale of Valves & Controls by the end of this quarter, at which point, we'll be able to significantly strengthen our balance sheet. We will see an improvement in EPS from lower interest expense. But just as important, we'll be able to get back to our disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on bolt-on acquisitions and stock buyback. Thank you for your continued interest in Pentair. Good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call, You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc
Analysts:
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Ronnie Weiss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Scott and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q3 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Scott, and welcome to Pentair's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you can join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. With me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2016 performance as well as our fourth quarter and full-year 2016 outlook, as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thanks, Jim, and thank you all for joining us today. I'll be starting on slide 4. We delivered third quarter results that operationally met the high end of our forecast and were slightly above our guidance as a result of anticipated separation costs that did not materialize. While two of our three segments did not deliver core sales growth as a result of continued slow industrial spending, the margin performance overall is a testament to our strong discipline around cost management. We announced in August that we reached an agreement to sell our Valves & Controls business to Emerson. This transaction is on track to close at the end of this year or early next year, subject to regulatory approvals. We're not expecting any recovery in industrial capital or maintenance spending at the end of the year in contrast to the typical year-end lift. Given this muted top line outlook predominantly on industrial-facing businesses, we're lower our fourth quarter outlook. We do not believe the fourth quarter is indicative of a trend, and we expect at some point maintenance spending will return in a more meaningful way. And longer cycle projects, particularly in food and beverage and infrastructure, are also likely to break loose. As we look ahead to 2017, we believe we are positioned to deliver strong EPS expansion despite this ongoing slower growth environment. I'll discuss this in more detail later in the call. Now let's turn to slide five for discussion of our Q3 2016 results. Third quarter core sales decline 2% as we saw further slowdown in capital spending throughout the quarter and ongoing referrals deferrals in maintenance spending. Water Quality Systems was our only segment to deliver core growth as the pool business once again finished the season in a strong position. We reached the one-year anniversary of the ERICO acquisition and the performance has met all of our expectation. Segment income grew 15% and return on sales expanded 110 basis points to 17.9%. Water Quality Systems delivered over 300 basis points of margin expansion. And despite the core sales decline in Flow & Filtration Solutions, income and margins were down only modestly as the segment delivered on better internal execution. Adjusted EPS grew 11% to $0.78 per share and exceeded our forecast of $0.70 to $0.75 per share as our core operating results met our income forecast while we did not incur the one-time separation costs we were expecting below the segment income line. Free cash flow continued to be bright spot, up over $150 million year-to-date compared to last year, and our conversion to adjusted net income remains just north of 100%. Now, let's turn to slide six for more detail on Pentair's Q3 2016 performance. Once again the residential and commercial vertical was a bright spot, driven in large part by our strong North American pool performance. While ERICO's performance was not captured in the core, its commercial sales also remain strong. After a good second quarter, we did see overall infrastructure sales decline modestly in the third quarter. We continue to see strength in engineered pump orders and backlog but our process filtration business faces difficult second half comparisons as large projects in the comparable period last year are not repeating. Food and beverage declined with delays in a number of larger beverage projects being the largest factor this quarter. While we've greatly reduced our exposure and energy, our remaining sales for this vertical remain under pressure. Industrial was down in the quarter due in part to ongoing deferrals in short cycle MRO spending and a global capital spending freeze that shows no sign of thawing. The right-hand side of the page shows that price and productivity continue to more than offset inflation as we continue to control costs across the enterprise. ERICO's contribution also helped drive the strong margin performance in the quarter. Now let's turn to slide seven for a look at Water Quality Systems performance in Q3. Water Quality Systems delivered core growth of 2%. These results were below our expectations as within our water filtration business we saw foodservice and commercial market softness in North America and Western Europe, as well as shifts in timing of key account program installation. We also experienced a moderation in growth rates in the fast growth regions as our distributors closely managed inventory levels due to slower growth in China. The North American pool market ended its season on a strong note. We continue to view this market favorably longer-term. We also believe our water filtration business has good long-term prospects and expect growth to return in 2017 as new product rollouts and key account program installations, particularly in foodservice, return to growth at a normal level. Segment income grew an impressive 15% and return on sales expanded 240 basis points to 21.2%. Robust operating leverage was once again the largest contributor to this strong margin performance, with the strong growth in the pool business contributing positively in the quarter. Now let's move to slide eight for a look at Flow & Filtration Solutions performance in Q3. Flow & Filtration Solutions saw core sales decline 6%. While we anticipated sales to contract in the quarter, water technologies and fluid solutions were down more than expected, as we saw softening demand in short cycle pump sales and weaker capital spending and beverage. Water technologies core sales declined 3% as distributors managed inventory levels tightly and we saw continued declines in irrigation sales, albeit at a moderated pace. We experienced a dramatic slowdown in fast growth regions, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America as sell-through was soft in the quarter and, as a result, distributors are not restocking. In contrast, Western Europe was a bright spot, up double digits in the quarter with good momentum. We continue to see an improvement in infrastructure bid activity, which points to a stronger 2017. Fluid solutions core sales declined 1%, which is slightly better than the 3% decline we saw last quarter. Sales in agriculture grew modestly in the quarter and, importantly, we expect this momentum to continue. Our biogas and beer membrane filtration businesses remain strong, offset partially by our beverage business seeing a number of large project delays globally and softer component sell-through. Core sales in process filtration declined 22%, largely in line with expectations, with the key drivers being project timing within infrastructure as well as declines in oil and gas and industrial filtration. Segment income and return on sales declined modestly as the impact of lower volumes were not fully offset by the continued strong productivity and pricing seen for the past several quarters. We remain vigilant on improving the cost structure to offset the impact of lower volumes. Looking ahead, we expect food and beverage to rebound with agriculture turning positive, along with growth in biogas and beer membrane filtration. As we continue to reduce the complexity in the business and drive better execution in projects, we believe we have a long runway for margin improvement. Now let's turn to slide nine to discuss how Technical Solutions performed in the third quarter. Technical Solutions reported 26% sales growth for the quarter, consisting of 1% core sales decline and a 27% positive contributions from ERICO. Core sales in enclosures declined 1% as industrial sales continue to bounce along the bottom, diminishing chances of any order rate growth acceleration for the remainder of 2016. Thermal management core sales declined 5% as downstream energy MRO product sales are not showing any signs of recovery. Our industrial heat tracing business continues to win small projects, but our project growth was challenged as large Canadian projects are nearing completion. While the results of ERICO are captured as acquisition contribution, the business performed in line with our expectations at the completion of the one-year deal anniversary. The majority of ERICO's sales are into commercial vertical, which continued to deliver growth in the quarter, although the rate of growth is moderating. Segment income grew 18% as return on sales contracted 140 basis points to 22%. Margin contraction was isolated to our thermal management business, as the sales of projects versus higher-margin MRO product sales negatively impacted mix and we face the productivity issues at the end of the large Canadian projects. ERICO has performed as we had anticipated, and enclosures continues to stabilize. The performance of these two businesses was not enough in the quarter to offset the margin impact from thermal management. We're not expecting downstream MRO spending to rebound for the remainder of the year. We also expect the Canadian project margins to pressure thermal margins in Q4, as we substantially complete them before the end of the year. This will undoubtedly have an impact on fourth quarter margins for Technical Solutions. With ERICO and enclosures performing as expected and thermal completing the large Canadian projects, we still believe Technical Solutions remains well positioned longer term. I'll now turn the call over to John to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2016 outlook and then I'll have a few closing remarks about how we're looking at the world entering 2017.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 10, titled Q4 2016 Pentair outlook. For the fourth quarter, ERICO is now captured in the core results, so core sales and total sales are currently equal to each other. For the fourth quarter, we expect overall sales to decline approximately 6%, as we expect MRO trends in energy and customer capital spending in all verticals to worsen as we head into the end of the year. Motivation for customers to push our projects and commitments shows no signs of stopping by the end of the year. On a core basis, we expect Water Quality Systems to grow approximately 2%, while we expect Flow & Filtration Solutions to decline approximately 9%, primarily related to project spending in the food and beverage vertical. Technical Solutions is expected to decline approximately 10%, due in large part to the completion of previously mentioned large Canadian projects and mid-teens declines in year-over-year MRO spending within energy. We expect segment income to be down approximately 10%, and return on sales to decline roughly 70 basis points to 17%. Below the operating line, we continue to expect the tax rate to remain around 21.5%, net interest and other to approximate $35 million, and shares outstanding to be around 184 million, about flat with Q3 ending levels. We expect free cash flow to end the year on a strong note, greater than continuing operations net income of $550 million and nearly $780 million inclusive of Valves & Controls. Please turn to slide 11, labeled full year 2016 Pentair outlook. As Randy mentioned at the beginning of the call, we've taken our full-year adjusted EPS outlook for continuing operations down to approximately $3 for 2016. For the full year, we expect core sales to decline 1%. Water Quality Systems full-year core sales are anticipated to be up approximately 4%. We now expect Flow & Filtration Solutions core sales decline of 4% and Technical Solutions core sales to be down 2% for the full year. We expect segment income to grow roughly 11% and return on sales to expand approximately 70 basis points to 17.1%. Our revised forecast factors in slightly better operating performance from Water Quality Systems, while Technical Solutions and Flow & Filtration Solutions are expected to have margins impacted by negative mix related to unfavorable market conditions. The pressure on higher-margin short cycle sales has been felt most acutely within Technical Solutions. We anticipate full-year corporate cost to be just under $110 million, net interest and other roughly $141 million, and the share count to be roughly 183 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow approximately 6%. Finally, we remain on track to generate free cash flow in excess of adjusted net income for the full year. Please turn to slide 12, labeled balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the third quarter with $4.4 billion net debt inclusive of cash on hand. This continues to improve as we used our strong cash flows in the quarter to reduce our debt levels. On a year-to-date basis, free cash flow has increased over $150 million versus the first nine months last year. We continue to expect to deliver free cash flow greater than adjusted net income for the full year. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 10.6%. When the sale of Valves & Controls closes, we expect our balance sheet will look dramatically different for the better, with lower debt levels and balance sheet capacity available for tuck-ins or incremental buybacks. I'll now turn the call back over to Randy for some closing comments and preliminary thoughts around 2017.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I'll wrap up beginning on slide 13. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, the sale of Valves & Controls remains on track to close at the end of this year or early next year, subject to the regulatory approvals. With the closing and the Valves & Controls separation, we expect the infusion of cash to alter our balance sheet dramatically for the better. As we discussed in August, we know what debt we will retire, mostly within our bank line. We're also exploring other options to restructure our debt, substantially reduce interest expense on our higher cost fixed rate long-term debt. We also continue to build our bolt-on acquisition funnel for businesses that have earned the right to grow, primarily within Water Quality Systems. We're doing what we can to control our destiny and while we still see some pockets of growth within residential and commercial and infrastructure, the uncertainty around any type of recovery within industrial gives us pause. So we're taking a closer look at our cost structure and adjusting it accordingly. Now, let's move to slide 14 for a look at segment positioning. Water Quality Systems has been a bright spot within the Pentair portfolio for several years, and while we've seen the growth rate moderate some, we continue to believe in the long-term prospects of this high-performing segment. With strong residential demand, dealer intimacy and a steady stream of new products, our outlook for the aquatics business remains strong. Within water filtration, we continue to believe we will benefit from increased awareness around water quality globally, and our investments in a more focused sales effort in North America and Europe are already paying early dividends. Foodservice has been a relatively consistent growth business for us longer term. We continue to believe there are many avenues for growth, including traditional restaurant sales as well as edging on into adjacent products and connected solutions. We believe Flow & Filtration Solutions remains the biggest opportunity for improvement within the Pentair portfolio. Our number one priority is reducing the complexity of the business, accelerating cost-out action and focusing on the most attractive growth prospects. We continue to see momentum around biogas and beer membrane filtration. It is encouraging that agriculture seems to have bottomed. So, we believe we're building some momentum exiting this year after a tough couple of years. As I discussed previously, we are seeing improved orders in backlog and infrastructure, which is a longer cycle part of the business, and is positioning for a return to growth. Finally, we're placing an increased focus on building our aftermarket service capabilities to leverage our installed base. Flow & Filtration Solutions has a number of opportunities and our principal focus is to prioritize which opportunities drive first and build momentum to restore growth and raise margins. We believe Technical Solutions has an attractive position in profitable areas of the electrical industry. We expect the 2016 headwinds will begin to dissipate as industrial order rates are near trough levels, hints of inflation returning are on the horizon, large projects in Canada are complete, and deferred MRO spending cannot continue forever. While we expect the strong growth in commercial to moderate, growth is likely to continue, progressively right-sizing the cost structure with the slower growth environment. This is the piece of our portfolio where we still have energy exposure. And while oil prices appear to have stabilized, we'll watch closely for signs of improving thermal MRO spending. While we still expect some near-term headwinds in parts of our portfolio, we still believe there are many avenues for growth longer-term. Now let's move to slide 15 for a look at the framework for 2017. Given the portfolio change and attendant P&L and balance sheet improvements we're undergoing, we think it's important to provide some framework for thinking about our prospects for next year. As we discussed throughout the call, we expect the slow growth world we are all facing today to continue, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery in 2017. Therefore, it's prudent to focus on having our cost structure aligned with this reality, the result of which should be margin expansion from all three segments next year. Upon the closing of the Valves & Controls sale, we expect to have an opportunity to restructure our debt, which will reduce interest expense. Also, we expect to have the financial flexibility to explore other opportunities to allocate capital in a disciplined manner. By focusing on cost, simplifying the business and improving the capital structure, we expect to be able to deliver EPS growth in excess of 15% next year with minimal top-line help while still positioning the company for the longer term. Thanks. And operator, can you please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan from UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Shannon.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, so, just on kind of the 4Q caution, I mean, is there anything in October that's making you think we've seen yet another like down or you just, is this lack of inflection, concerns around election – maybe just a little more color on what keeps you cautious on 4Q? And I know you're more optimistic beyond 4Q.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, Shannon. It's John here. I think what, if you take a look at Q3, we started out really strong and we ended okay, but we certainly didn't see acceleration towards the end of Q3. And what we're seeing is continued project slippage, where these are projects that we've either won, but the start dates on the projects continue to move to the right. And given where we are right now, with all the uncertainty you mentioned, we just don't think our customers are going to rush to conclude them between now and the end of the year. The other main issue is we've been hoping that MRO would recover throughout this year and that's on the operational side, primarily in energy, and we're not hopeful now at this point that that's going to recover for the end of the year as our customers manage cash to the end of the balance sheets. So, those are the main issues.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. We almost always see an uptick in the industrial spending in the fourth quarter and what we're saying is, we're not counting on that this time, with these deferrals.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just, in terms of all segments improving margins next year, the one that's been a little bit tougher has been Flow & Filtration, maybe just an update on how you think they're progressing operationally? I know volumes were a little tougher this quarter, but what – do you have confidence that segment can improve margins next year?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. If we had hit the forecast of down 2% instead of down 6%, we would have expanded margin. I think we're making a lot of progress on simplifying the product line and on driving productivity. It's a business that frankly didn't get as much attention as we focused on Valves & Controls and now we're getting back to it. So I think there's lots of opportunities and things like agriculture coming back, the crop spray business and some of the other businesses that are some of the more profitable businesses, those stabilizing and even getting a little bit of growth is going to help in the mix.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, all.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Morning, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Just first a quick question on ERICO. So I know it's not in core growth. What would that have contributed to core growth? What was just the ERICO core growth for that business?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
1% to 2%, Steve.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And just on Water Quality Systems, this was one of your strongest businesses that could do no wrong historically and clearly you had a forecast for 8% at least in terms of guidance, came in at just 2%. You talked about a couple of those dynamics, but maybe also for John, I mean where was the forecasting error here and in terms of that business that's supposed to be so much more stable.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I'll hit your last part first and then I'll have Randy. We had three key businesses in Water Quality. We have our aquatic and environmental systems, which is primarily the pool business. The pool business continues to be very strong and we continue to hit all of our forecasts relative to that business. Where the softness came in the quarter, which also relates to the way we're thinking about Q4 was in the foodservice business, which has been up, high single-digits throughout the year and had moderated back to flat in Q3. And then also we had the water purification business which also was strong most of the year and took a little bit of pause in Q3. So that's where the misses came, Steve.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I'd just add, on the foodservice side, we've been growing at high teens rate in Asia, and while we're still growing there that took a step down to high single-digit growth rate, which was one change. And then we've seen some, I would call, variability in some of the deployments in some of the chains as restaurant growth has slowed down. So we expect those deployments to continue, or get positive again, as we launch a new range of products, which I referenced in my comments, but that won't happen in the quarter.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And Randy, in terms of how you're thinking about M&A. You early on talked about those businesses that have – I guess, have earned the right to capital deployment soon – shortly after Valves & Controls closes. Maybe a little more guidance on how you're thinking about bolt-on, just any kind of size range or just a little bit of sense for investors of what we might expect early next year?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, we're going to be disciplined, I mean, we're getting out from under the overhang of a lot of the debt and we take our lessons from that, okay. But the place that we have the most opportunity. We are one of the leading players in water. We expanded that with the Tyco merger into the broader flow space and I think we want to get narrowly focused again in what I'll call the water side of the flow space. So, that's why I mentioned Water Quality. There are some that are sort of in between Water Quality and FFS, which is really, I mean, both of them together are our water business. And so, we want to continue to build that leading position and, so around water quality and availability. We like the food and beverage business, although we want to be careful about the heavy capital side of that versus things with annuity, which is why we like the membrane, the beer filtration, and also biogas, which is I think a nice growth business. So, it will be in areas that expand our reach and deepen our expertise in water – way to think about it.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Robert Baird. Your line is open.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
Hey. Morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Morning, Mike.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
So, first on 2017 thought process, obviously, no meaningful improvement embedded in those numbers. Yet I got the sense from some of your commentary more specifically on the divisions that there was some expectation that fourth quarter doesn't represent the right run rate. So, maybe help kind of reconcile those two right there and then what areas should start getting maybe a slightly better in the next year and which ones you're more worried about?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Let me start with Technical Solutions. We mentioned thermal. As the thermal business saw the decline in the energy business, we got aggressive in going after projects to replace the product. Those have proven to be more challenging from a profitability standpoint and those are coming to an end. And so, we'll immediately mix up, if you will, on the profit side. On the growth side, we expect more normalized. We're assuming in the fourth quarter this muted impact on the usual bump in sales we would see in industrial. We don't think – we're hopeful that after the fourth quarter, we'll return to a more normal level, which won't be the negative impact we see in the industrial market for the fourth quarter. John, if you want to add anything?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
No. I agree with that.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
So, you're basically saying beyond that, though, it's a pretty steady run rate from the fourth quarter other than the maintenance side reverting back to normal?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. If you take a look at the full year, core growth was down 1% for full year, that had a lot of choppiness in it. We started the year with almost double-digit declines in industrial. We've worked a way back to flattish numbers as we close out the year. So sequentially things have stabilized. What we're really saying is these larger projects that were out there for the Q4 cycle are going to be pushed or deferred into next year or may be deferred permanently. And we don't see me environment that's reflected in Q4 in the pause and concern of our overall customer base being the same cause of concern that we see as we enter 2017. Now, we said negative 2% to plus 2% next year so that's clearly not a robust growth environment, but it's flattish and then we have the operating income cost structure changes that we're driving as an organization to drive margin improvement.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
And I would add as – and that's the framework. We're planning on a minus 2% to plus 2% top line, which means to drive the performance that we know we can drive, we need to focus on simplifying. We're already working on simplifying the cost structure with the removal of Valves & Controls. We're going to do more than that, as a result of that outlook. If we get more upside, we will be in a position to serve (26:22) on the volume side.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
Makes sense. And then, second one on the stranded cost side, maybe just an update there on how that's going? And then, just with the margin levers in the next year, some sort of thought process on how much is discretionary oriented versus something more permanent?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, we're looking beyond just the stranded cost and we're looking at how do we simply the cost structure and, in a lean sense, how do we really take out waste and variability in the course of that simplification. I'm confident that we will get to a run rate at the beginning of the year that takes that overhang away or more.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Just follow on to Randy's point, real quickly. I mean, we had a focus to integrate and standardize a lot of the Valves & Controls activities, because that's where the biggest opportunities were for improvements. And so we repositioned a lot of our cost structure savings towards Valves & Controls. Now we're going to bring back the focus to reintegrating ourselves, if you will, to our Pentair standards on the rest of the portfolio, and we believe we can accelerate a lot of those cost-out actions in simplifying the company as Randy mentioned.
Michael Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Good morning. Hey, how do you get so – you got the 5% operating profit increase, I guess 15% EPS growth. Just remind us kind of how you bridge that, I'm not sure if you mentioned early in the call and if you did then I guess I'll take it offline, but just a little more of a precise bridge on how you get there?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. We didn't, Steve, I mean, but I think the element we're now working to right now is we believe there is opportunity in the debt structure of the company. And we do think for relatively inexpensive investment, we can get a fair amount of interest out by putting our capital position or our debt position more in line with where we want it to be on a permanent basis. And there would clearly be significant interest savings associated with that, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So that's a refi or that's, I mean, because your interest rate, I think your average interest rate is pretty low already, right, or is there...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Right. We're carrying gross debt fairly high without taking out fixed debt structure and we think there's an opportunity to take out some of the fixed debt structure in a productive way and therefore it's incrementally better than what we had mentioned before. And we think we then have a capital and a debt structure that mirrors where we think we can be longer term as a growth oriented company.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I got it. So it's a kind of combination of use of the proceeds effectively and then a little bit of a different structure in the underlying.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Correct.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
In what's leftover.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Correct, but no (29:07) buybacks or --
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
The 15% plus, think about it as one half on the capital side focused on debt, and one half on the performance side.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then in Technical, what's going on in the core enclosures business? And is that decline in the fourth quarter, is that all thermal related? Is that just a tough comp on thermal because it doesn't seem like the enclosures business would have that kind of a drop-off from flat given the short cycle nature.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
The profit impact is almost 80% thermal and usually in the enclosures business, that's the place where we would see a fourth quarter uptick and we're assuming we won't.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So that's within enclosures, though, like the kind of short cycle CapEx, the box business, is that stable down in that negative 10%? What is that kind of trending?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Bumping along the bottom...
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
It's stable, Steve, from Q3 sequential. The overall...
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So, but down year-over-year, because you may have had a good fourth quarter last year, or something like that?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Slightly down year-over-year, but not 1% to 2% down.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I think that's it. Thanks a lot, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Ronnie Weiss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, guys. It's Ronnie Weiss on for Julian.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
Ronnie Weiss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Can you just talk a little bit about the pricing dynamics in each of the segments, still holding up decently well and how that kind of looks into 2017?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
As you can see overall, pricing is – it's not moving a lot in either direction. We actually think with rates go up and inflation goes up a little bit, it'll give us some more pricing leverage. I mentioned in the script that in the thermal projects, that's been tougher on the project side. But we've seen the impact of that. Now, we're being more selective about going after them because we don't want to get low-profit projects anymore. Rather just get the products of it. So I'd say there's really no dramatic change in the pricing environment in any of the businesses.
Ronnie Weiss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then kind of on the accelerated alignment of the cost structure going into 2017, can you frame some of those numbers? Is the 50 basis points all productivity, is that 2% benefit that you guys had in Q3, is that the right number to think about into 2017, or does it step back up as you maybe see some more opportunity?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I don't think we're ready to give our final number yet. I think the number that you mentioned, about 2% of sales, is certainly in the ballpark of where we're targeting as we head into next year. And obviously, being more selective at where we apply that cost out to where we think the economic conditions will not as robust as other places of the portfolio. But overall, you're in the ballpark.
Ronnie Weiss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, good morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, so, I was trying to follow the answer to Steve's question earlier on the fourth quarter in Technical Solutions. You guys have that stepping down organically 10%, so what exactly is driving that in the fourth quarter?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
It's primarily all of our thermal business related to energy, MRO...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
MRO.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
And energy projects.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
And a couple of points on enclosures.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. So, enclosures are going to be down, I think, low single-digits and thermal and the heat tracing business could be down more than double-digits in the fourth quarter?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, keep in mind that that's a year-over-year comparison, so last year we had projects roll through. So it's a comparison against the projects. If you actually look at it sequentially from Q3 to Q4, it's just down slightly on the top line.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then the second question is just around the ERICO business. I think you guys mentioned earlier that the annual run rate was about $507 million for this year. And then, I think the numbers that you gave us at the Analyst Day were closer like $530 million, $540 million. So what's happened in that business throughout the year and also maybe some commentary on recent trends there as well?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I don't know where the $507 million came from, we think it's $530 million for the year, slightly better than $530 million for the year. So...
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Got it. So, basically that business is flat right now?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Slightly up.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Slightly up. Yeah.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Right in line with the plan.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. All right. Great. I'll get back in queue. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hi, good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I was hoping to get underneath some of the inflation numbers here. Where exactly are you guys seeing inflation emerge?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Steel, starting to see some pickup in steel related pricing, as a material buy. We're also seeing some uptick in some of the commodity prices for mining related commodities, Scott.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
All right.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We also have wage inflation, labor inflation.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Are there price increases set for the fourth quarter, given the steel situation or have they already occurred?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, as Randy said, we have modest increase as planned and they have already or will already have been in place this early quarter.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
All right. And then I have one other more holistic question for you guys. This is the same portfolio as we kind of left off pre-Valves in 2012. And with of course the addition of ERICO, yet we seem to be talking a heck of a lot more about project business today than I really ever recalled in the older portfolio. What has happened to your businesses and the dynamics of the market where so much of your business now seems to be more project oriented? And if there's any way of quantifying how much of your businesses now project oriented now, versus what it was then, I guess sort of the last question within that would be, how does that affect your cost down plans for next year, project orientation makes that a little bit harder or otherwise?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Let me – there are – it's not wrong. We do have more products – as we move from products to solutions, they tend to be larger, more complex and we call those projects and then of course the thermal business. We saw the thermal business and about half of that is projects, a little bit more than that because of the MRO, the product sales has been impacted. So we expect that the solutions sales can still give us the same amount of margins. We need to get better at predicting when they're going to shift. We need to make sure that we're getting the same margins we're getting as we move the products to solutions and that's all underway. So strategically it's where we were going anyway because it's where customers want us to become. So there are projects in both Technical Solutions and in FSS.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah and the total would be roughly just under 8% of sales – would be our total project revenue for 2016.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
But a lot of the variability. That's why we need to get better at predicting.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Right.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
And would you say that is maybe double or more what it was pre-Valves & Controls?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Probably, yes.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
All right and does that affect how you pull cost out next year?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
It doesn't because the way we look at it is most of that is variable spend, right. So we flex it up and flex it down and so we look at that and as we referenced cost out targets, it's those targets plus what needs to go away related to the project.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I got you. All right, very good. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I'd just like to follow up, John, on the point you just made about increasing prices in the fourth quarter. Can you maybe give us an idea of historically how much of that pricing sticks and given that we're in a pretty weak demand environment at the moment, if you think that pricing increase will be more or less sticky than it historically has been?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We think that the price increases that we put forward which are more modest price increases will all generally stick. There's only one area of our particular portfolio right now that's unusual versus prior trends and I'd call it the strengthening dollar, right. So...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Right.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We're in a situation where Europe and you heard it in Randy's commentary, Europe's doing relatively okay. So there are imports coming from Europe that are realizing lower cost basis. Now we have European business as well that we're benefiting from that. But overall, I think we put in a net price increase, modest less than 100 basis points for the total company, next year that we think we can realize.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. Next question, you talked about I think this call and last call about industrial order rates being at trough levels. But your guidance on that end market there has taken a step down this quarter. Can you reconcile those? Have the order rates taken a step down and now you think they're at trough levels and what gives you confidence that maybe there's not another step down to come from here?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. Actually it's flat. I mean, the thing is in my 20 years or 30 years in industrial, I'd say 19 out of the 20, there's been an uptick in the fourth quarter and we're saying is that doesn't happen. So we're flat essentially in the third quarter and fourth quarter, and compared to last year, that's down a couple points.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
But what gives you confidence that that improves going into 2017? I mean, on a year-over-year basis, we've taken a fairly significant downtick in the fourth quarter, even if it's flat sequentially?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Well, ISM actually went positive in September, that's only one month. We'll see what it does in October. It's usually a precursor of recovery and...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
But, Nathan, just to be clear, I think our framework, not guidance, but our framework for next year doesn't assume it does, and I think that's what we hope you took away. That, yes, we think Q4 is an anomaly, but if you take a look at the overall core growth for the company at negative 1% and moving to that general framework next year, I don't think we're counting on a big recovery next year. We think it's a slower economic growth environment and we're going to double down on the simplicity of the company, work on the debt restructuring and disciplined capital allocation to drive the value.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's fair. Thanks very much.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hope we're wrong, but I don't...
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hopefully not wrong in the wrong direction. Hopefully wrong in the right direction.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
There you go. There you go.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Walsh from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi, good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Morning.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
I didn't see it on the slide, but just wanted to talk about free cash flow conversion to the adjusted net income for the next year and what some of the levers are you have to pull to keep the conversion rate really strong, whether it's CapEx or working capital or any other items to be aware of on the cash side.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We think on a go-forward basis, we're still targeting to achieve greater than 100%. While we've lost some of the working capital opportunity in Valves & Controls, we still have plenty of working capital opportunity in FFS, and we also believe we have a less severance environment, right. So, our cash flow captures our severance outflows as well, and there were a fair amount of those in the Valves & Controls business that as we move away from Valves & Controls no longer are headwinds to the company. So we still think 100% or greater than 100% of net income is our targeted cash flow conversion.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Which is what we did before the Tyco merger on a regular basis, so...
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah. And then just wondering if you can give us an update on the valuations that you're seeing out there on the deal front, kind of seller and buyer expectations are getting tighter and if it's kind of still a – I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it seemed like it was kind of evenly split between preference for share repo and M&A when you did the Valves & Controls call?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah, when we did that, we said we're going to have this firepower. We are about shareholder value and we will as a board look at the opportunities of how we deploy that. Our bias is to grow the business and grow the company, but we're not going to do it with non-strategic acquisitions. So if we can't find them at the right price, and it's hard to generalize as to pricing, but there's a lot of people looking at deals, so usually that causes prices to go up. But we have been disciplined, and we will continue to be disciplined as we look at it. And we're not rushing to put the capital to work. We want it to be informed by a good strategy, and the board is totally aligned on that.
John Fred Walsh - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
All right. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Just another one on M&A. I think, Randy, your comments were much more focused on Water ,and I think you've talked in the past about both Tech Solutions and Water having the right to grow, so kind of what informs that bias? Is it what's available out there or how you're thinking about the businesses strategically or the end markets? Maybe just a little more color there.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Well, Technical Solutions has to get back to earning again. I'm not happy with the forecast that we got on the thermal side. So we want to support high execution. So there are opportunities in Technical Solutions. It's a great business. I mean, as I mentioned in the script, we have great positions in the electrical industry and there are ways to build upon those, but we need to get the cost structure in that business right. We need to get the execution back to where I know it can be, and then I'll let them come up to the front of the line again.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, John, just back on the debt restructuring. So this ability to restructure some of the debt -- that is built into the guide? Is that the right way to think about it?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
The framework.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes. We haven't given guidance yet.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Into the framework, yes. Okay. So you're putting that in and are you paying down more – within that framework, are you paying down more debt or you're just getting a more favorable rate based on a restructuring?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We will be paying down more debt. I don't what yet, we're still exploring it, but given our original views, we quickly after the Valves & Controls hadn't had time to look at it.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Right.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
We're now looking at it and we're seeing that for a very good return, we can invest a little bit of money and get a longer term savings. So we're looking at exploring those options and when we give our guidance, we'll be able to fully share that. But right now we're anticipating it's better than we previously said.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Pokrzywinski from Buckingham Research Group. Your line is open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Hey, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Just to follow up on I think Steve's earlier question on ERICO. I guess I'm still struggling a little bit with the plug there. I'm looking at the slides from when you guys initially did the deal, $570 million in 2015, $595 million in 2016 forecasted revenue. And it still seems like even with some margin error or maybe some reporting differences, we're still talking about a number in the low $500 million range, whether it's $507 million or $530 million. What am I missing in that bridge?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. So, thanks for bringing it up. Those original numbers were gross sales.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Gross sales.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
They're not net sales. And on a net sales basis, we're closer to the $530 million this year and that is roughly a 1 to 2 percentage point growth over where it was on a full year basis last year. It is made up of – roughly half of that is CADDY, which is a commercially exposed business, and then half of it is more related to infrastructure and also rail and utilities. So the big difference in those original slides to what we published later was gross to net deductions.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. And the just to circle back on Flow & Filtration, clearly you guys have a lot of initiatives going on there all at once and the market certainly not helping you out, but what should we expect to see first when you're starting to get traction there? Is it organic growth stabilizing, is it margin improvement, is it a little bit of everything? Because I think you guys have been focused on this for at least the last year and clearly at a high level things are still probably disappointing to you, but I'm trying to figure out what would be the green shoots from your perspective that you'd want people to look at and say, hey, we're starting to get some traction here?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yeah. I would say margins and, Josh, go back two or three years, we were making some good – FFS was, if you will, in the legacy venture side, it was the lowest performing margins and our goal was to get it to 15% or more. I still think we can get them there and we get close at some point. And so you'll see it in our margins first and then growth. So right now we actually have, as I said, some of our innovations like biogas and membrane filtration of beer, even though general the food and beverage industry isn't growing, these applications are and we're doing well in them. So we are getting good progress in a number of growth areas, it's just not enough to offset some of the areas that aren't growing. So margins first, growth second.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
To be fair, though, Randy, the 15% target, that was inclusive of AMR (47:10), right, the way you guys used to report it, or is that wrong?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
I'd say, yeah. In addition though (47:18)
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
The margins in Flow & Filtration should approach what they are in Water Quality. I mean these are some high technical specs. I mean, I don't think we'll get our core pump business that high, but the filtration side of this business and the technology side of the business has a lot more potential than 15%.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Barry from Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Hey, guys, good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Good morning.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
So the talk about the large beverage projects being pushed out, is that beer and is that related to M&A or just maybe a little more color on what's happening there?
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
It's basically the valving in all beverage, it's dairy, it's beer, but the biggest ones for us in beer.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes, and there is a capital pause happening, as you mentioned, that's driving some of that delay.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Related to M&A activity, I know you've talked about that before.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Yes.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
And so when you talk about the beverage projects, should we think about that bucket of revenue, is that about $350 million of sales that's kind of...
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
No.
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
$250-ish million.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Yes.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
$250 million. Got you. Okay. And maybe just to put a finer point on some of the earlier questions about the framework for next year. I mean what should we plug in our models for 2017 for interest expense and corporate?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
Not there yet. We have to get through and figure out where we end and then we'll give guidance at the appropriate time. We just wanted to provide the framework so that people can understand how we're thinking about it.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
I mean the corporate sounded like maybe it would go back to the 90 (48:47) that it was the pre the V&C sale or maybe even a little lower. Is that kind of ballpark?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
I think that would be the low end of the range.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. And then maybe just finally in Tech Solutions, you talked about some of the productivity issues with the big projects. I mean in the quarter and maybe year-to-date how much of a drag on the margin has the thermal project productivity issue been?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
300 basis points.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Okay. So when we're looking year-over-year, that's like a 3 point headwind that's just going away?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That's correct.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
For the segment?
John L. Stauch - Pentair Plc:
That's correct.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. Okay. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to the presenters.
Randall J. Hogan - Pentair Plc:
Thank you very much. And I'm sure it will be on replay. Thank you. Bye.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Today's call will be available for replay in approximately two hours time. To listen to the replay, please dial 1-800-642-1687 and enter the conference ID 55576168. Again, dial 1-800-642-1687 and enter ID 55576168. Thank you and have a nice day.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - VP, IR and Strategic Planning Randall Hogan - Chairman & CEO John Stauch - CFO
Analysts:
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Deane Dray - RBC Steve Winoker - Bernstein Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Mike Halloran - Robert Baird Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Inc. Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Robert Barry - Susquehanna International Group
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q2 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Jim Lucas, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Emily, and welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. We're glad you can join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2016 performance, as well as our third quarter and full year 2016 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and get back in the queue for further questions in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall Hogan:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I’m starting on page 4. We are pleased with our second quarter results which came in at the high end of our expectations. The top line was consistent with our forecast and income and margins were slightly better than our expectations driven by strong execution and continued benefit from our cost-out actions. Integration of ERICO is meeting our expectations, we remain on track to meet or exceed the $10 million in synergies we targeted. Free cash flow was once again a positive story and we’re very pleased with our performance here. For the first half of the year we’ve generated $304 million in free cash which is over a $150 million better than what we delivered in the first half of last year. We’re updating our full year adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $4.05 to $4.20 which is bringing a nickel off the top end of the range. Valves & Controls have started to become more predictable, we’re seeing the negative impact of sales mix in both Flow & Filtration Solutions and Technical Solutions. Now I’ll turn to slide 5 for discussion of our Q2 2016 results. Second quarter core sales declined 1% which is slightly better than our previously communicated expectations. Water Quality Systems delivered solid growth once again against the tough comparison, our Flow & Filtration Solutions felt the impact of continued difficult agriculture markets. The declined Valves & Controls sales moderated and Technical Solutions was flat compared to our expectation with a slight decline in the quarter. ERICO contributed positively with sales in-line with our expectations. Segment increased 7% and return on sales expanded 30 basis points to 16.8%. Water quality systems saw 200 basis point expansion and Valves & Controls slightly beated second quarter income and margin commitments which were big steps up from the first quarter. Adjusted EPS grew 3% to $1.11 per share and was at the high end of our guidance of a dollar rate to an $11. As I mentioned previously free cash flow was very strong in the quarter. Now let’s turn to slide 6 for more detail on Pentair’s Q2. Our sales performance was mix by vertical with strong growth in residential and commercial and infrastructure. We saw signs of stabilization industrial with a rate of decline continue to moderate and energy did not get worse. Food & Beverage was down in the quarter due to ongoing declines in agriculture who we believe our beverage business remains healthy. Our largest vertical residential and commercial saw 2% sales growth with strength in residential and water quality systems and ongoing strength in commercial in both Flow & Filtration Solutions and technical Solutions. Well, ERICO’s performance is not captured in core results yet, we would point out that commercial markets remain solid for it too. Infrastructure was positive once again led by continued growth in both North American Municipal Pumps and improved project activity in Process Filtration globally. We’ve been looking for Flow & Filtration Solutions to see infrastructure growth this year which has played out as expected and we’re encouraged that biding activity remains healthy as well. The rate of decline within Industrial moderated further and we believe that this our largest vertical appears to have found a bottom. There we’re not looking for a second half rebound comparisons even in the second half and should reported results. Food & Beverage declined for the second consecutive quarter as Flow and Filtration Solutions continued to feel the impact of agriculture the decline to the double digit rate for us. Energy declined at a low double digit rate for the second consecutive quarter, but we expect energy sales to find a bottom in the second half based on the bottoming and sequential orders we’ve experienced. As you can see on the right hand side of the page, productivity remains strong and more than offset inflation. ERICO contributed strength to the bottom line and strong underlying performance in synergies. Now let’s turn to slide 7 for a look at water quality systems performance in Q2. Water quality systems delivered another strong quarter with 3% core sales growth. Although growth rate declined sequentially with the tough comparison as the second quarter last reflected slightly different timing in the North American cool season then what we’re experiencing this year. Although timing is different, we believe the North American cool season remains very healthy. Water filtration grew sales 1% as both our residential filtration business and our food service business faced tough comps. Segment income grew an impressive 11% and return on sales expanded 200 basis points to 24.7%. Robust operating leverage was the key contributor to margin expansion in the quarter. Timing of growth investments may mute the rate of margin expansion in the second half but we anticipate the prospects remain strong for water quality systems. Now let’s move to slide 8 for a look at Flow & Filtration Solutions. Flow & Filtration saw core sales decline 1%. We had anticipated the segment to return to growth in the second quarter and rather infrastructure growth came through as expected, but food and beverage performance was negatively impacted by very challenging agriculture sales. Water Technologies core sales declined 3% at strength in residential and commercial and infrastructure pump shipments were more than offset by double digit declines in irrigation pump shipments. This is very similar to what we saw last quarter in this business. We expect both the residential and commercial and infrastructure businesses to see continued growth, irrigation headwinds will likely persist, this comparisons remain challenging given the drought conditions in the west that helped our sales last year. Core sales in Fluid Solutions declined 3%, well beverage returned to growth in the quarter and experienced strong orders growth as well. The precision spray presence was negatively impacted by the beleaguered agriculture markets. Process filtrations up core sales growth of 10% as we continue to see momentum build from our focus on industrial water reuse solution and return to growth in infrastructure with some desalination investments. This business has some lumpiness given the timing of projects that we believe we continue to gain momentum from our focus on industrial water reuse. Segment income and return on sales contracted modestly this negative mix weight on the segments results. We believe this is just a pause in the margin improvement journey in the Flow & Filtration Solutions and there is still a long runway ahead for further margin growth. Now let’s turn to slide 9 to discuss our Technical Solutions performed in the second quarter. Technical Solutions reported 32% sales growth for the quarter consisting a flat core sales growth and 1% headwind from FX and a 34% positive contribution from ERICO. Core sales in Enclosures declined 5% or encouraged by the stabilization in the daily order rate which reinforces our view to easier comparisons in the back half of the year. Thermal Management delivered core sales growth of 7% helped in part by two projects in Canada that we previously discussed that are reaching completion. We’ve talked this year about our Industrial Heat Tracing business continuing to win small projects and unfortunately we’re seeing no sign of downstream MRO spending growth return yet. All the results of ERICO are captured as acquisition contribution, the business performed in-line with our expectations. As a reminder over 75% of ERICO’s sales are into commercial end markets which remained very healthy in the quarter. We remain on track to deliver over $10 million in synergies for the year on top of the base business profitability which is performing as expected. Segment income grew 30%, the return on sales contracted 60 basis to 20.6%. The margin contraction was isolated to our Thermal Management business as the growth we mentioned in projects versus higher margin MRO product sales negatively impacted mix. ERICO has performed as we had anticipated, Enclosures are seeing signs of stabilization. The performance of these two SPGs was not enough in the quarter to offset the impact of the negative mix experienced in Thermal Management on the ROS. We’re not expecting downstream MRO spending to rebound in the second and we expect this will undoubtedly have an impact on third quarter margins for Technical Solutions. So with ERICO and Enclosures performing as expected Technical Solutions remain well positioned long term. Now let’s move to slide 10 to discuss the Valves & Controls performance in Q2. For the second consecutive quarter Valves & Controls met or beat its forecast for both sales and margins. Even more the heavy lifting we’ve done to right size the cost structure of the business read out in the nice gain and margin sequentially. And orders appear to have stabilized. Valves & Controls reported a 13% decline in revenue with core sales down 11% and a 2% headwind from FX. Backlog was down 7% sequentially, which includes negative FX translation. Core orders were down 27% year-over-year against the tough comparison, but as stated we did see a flattening of orders sequentially. Core sales were down 6% in aftermarket and down 17% in projects. In line with our expectation, the aftermarket business remained weak as OpEx continue to be constrained along with CapEx at many customers. We believe the order funnel overall is beginning to strengthen, which reinforces our view that orders will bottom in the second quarter and will begin to expand near double digit rates sequentially starting in the third quarter. The right half of the page shows second quarter segment income and return on sales, which both met our forecast. Return on sales of 10.1% was slightly ahead of our forecast and up significantly from the first quarter as our cost-out benefit registered in line with our previously communicated expectations. The Valves & Controls team has done a courageous job in realigning the business to reflect the significant energy industry reset. It executed in the cost side while aligning the business with the opportunities exists today and over the next several years. We continue to believe that Valves & Controls is well positioned for an eventual recovery in its end markets beginning in 2017 and will continue to enjoy rising margins sequentially even before that. Now, let's move to slide 11 for look at Valves & Controls backlog. Much of the backlog decline we saw has come as a result of progress we're making in reducing our past dues. Last year we booked roughly 100 million in orders from projects greater than $5 million. However, we have not booked even one order greater than $5 million during the first half of 2016. Yet orders of bottoming out sequentially and as our customers sort out the spending plans, we expect to see a return of some larger projects. So we believe that the second quarter marks the bottom for orders and we're expecting orders to improve in the second half of the year from the depressed first half levels. For the past three quarters, the business has improved its forecasting capabilities and with aftermarket orders now approximating 55% of orders that should improve the margin mix. We're encouraged with Valves & Controls meeting or beating its forecast on sales, orders and income for the second consecutive quarter. There has been tremendous progress made on right sizing the cost structure of the business and better alignment between sales and operations has improved forecasting and execution ability of the segment. We believe the order funnel will continue to strengthen and while the top line will not show it right away orders bottoming and margins improving show brighter days ahead. With that, I will turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you Andy, please turn to Slide number 12, titled balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the second quarter with $4.6 billion of net debt inclusive of cash on hand. This was an improvement from where we ended the year as we used our strong cash flows in the quarter to reduce our debt levels. As Randy mentioned earlier, free cash flow increased over 150 million during the first half of the year versus the comparable period last year. We continue to expect to deliver free cash flow greater than adjusted net income for the full-year. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 9.6%. Our forecast for capital expenditures remains a 150 million as continue to invest in businesses that have earned the right to grow and drive standardization and productivity across the enterprise. We remain focused on generating strong cash flow and further debt reduction. Please turn to Slide 13, labeled Q3, 2016 Pentair outlook. For the third quarter, we expect core sales be flat and total sales to increase 7% inclusive of FX head wins and a positive contribution from ERICO. As a reminder, we closed on the purchase of ERICO just before the end of Q3 last year. And starting in Q4, ERICO will be included in the core. On a core basis, we expect water quality systems to grow approximately 8%, while flow & filtration solutions is expected to see core sales decline approximately 1%. Technical solutions is expected to be flat on a core basis and valves & controls is anticipated to see core sales decline 6%. We expect segment income to increase approximately 11% and return on sales to expand roughly 60 basis points to 16.7%. Below the operating line, we continue to expect the tax rate to remain around 20.5%, net interest in other to approximate $35 million and shares outstanding to be around a 183 million. We expect free cash flow to continue to be strong during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 14, labeled full year 2016 Pentair outlook. As Randy at the beginning of the call, we have taken a nickel off of the top end of our range and our full year adjusted EPS outlook is now $4.05 to $4.20. For the full year, we expect core sales decline 1%, water quality systems full year core sales are anticipated to be up approximately 6%, which is slightly better than our prior forecast. We now expect flow & filtration solutions to see a core sales decline of 1% versus our prior forecast of modest growth for the full year. Technical solutions core sales expected to be flat for the full year, which is slightly better than our prior forecast. Finally, valves & controls expected to see core sales decline of approximately 9%. We expect segment income to grow roughly 8% and return on sales to expand approximately 70 basis points to 16.3%. our revised forecast factors in slightly better operating performance from water quality systems and valves & controls, or technical solutions and flow & filtration solutions are expected to see margins impacted by negative mix related to unfavorable market conditions. We anticipate full year corporate cost to be just under 90 million, net interest in other are roughly a 140 million and the share count to be roughly a 183 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow approximately 5% at the mid-point of the range. Finally, we remain on track to generate free cash flow in excess of adjusted net income for the full year. Emily, can you please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan from UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Good morning, guys.
Randall Hogan:
Good morning, Shannon.
John Stauch:
Good morning.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
So, I guess maybe just start with current assessment of strategic views on valves & controls and given news items and also does the fact that executing so much better impact your view of set. How do you think about that currently?
Randall Hogan:
Well, I'm not going to comment about speculation, if we have anything to say, we would have said it. But I'm really pleased with the progress. There is a lot of doubters, there is doubters in a lot of places about how well our actions would read out. And I think this was a proved quarter. And to go from the margins we had in the first quarter, the second quarter, and see the bottoming of orders, I'd say valves is a like has a like clear future today than it had in the first quarter.
John Stauch:
Yes, and I would add. This is a great business in the difficult market condition and 2014, we're nearly 17% margins and roughly 400 million in segment income. And what we feel like is a trough year, we're still going to be 11.5% ROS. We're slugging through it, I mean, obviously seeing some sequentially bottom of the orders is a good sign and seeing the order funnels start to become a more robust time in Q3 and Q4 give us excitement that we can feel like we can start contributing more and more as we go forward in valves & controls.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay. And then, maybe just within valves & controls but even technical and more broadly some things you're saying are bottoming. You talked about I think within valve's essential double-digit order increased sequentially in 3Q. But then there is other things like downstream you said you assume, you're not expecting any recovery. I guess, where do you expect sequential recovery and where do you think market is still going to remain depressed?
Randall Hogan:
This is just a weird time. I mean, there's such a mix geographically and between verticals in terms of the growing and not growing and I think that reflects the greater uncertainly in the world. We feel really good about industrial and commercial, we feel like infrastructure is coming back with some momentum, as I mention the orders not only a sales op but orders act, order activity has remained up. And while the agriculture continued muted spending in agriculture, mutes our Food & Beverage like. We feel really good about food service a beverage overall. So, we think a lot about what individuals are spending money on, is good, residential, commercial, food and beverage and even in industrial. The fact that we're getting to the point where we're seeing flattened daily order rates and industrial tells us that we're, that's why we are seeing the bottom there. We just don’t expect it to increase a lot in the second half yet.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay, great. Thanks guys.
Randall Hogan:
Thanks, Shannon.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randall Hogan:
Good morning.
Deane Dray:
Hey Randy, I was hoping you could expand on a comment you made in your opening remarks regarding that negative sales mix. I think you addressed it pretty clearly, you're on the Valves & Controls business. But I'd be interested in hearing where else you're seeing a negative mix as it relates to customers in this environment instead of buying such and such, they're opting for either a cheaper replacement. But how does it translate into your customer behavior into a negative mix this quarter?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. Thanks Deane for asking that, so I can clarify. It's not the mix, the mix we're seeing is not mix between a customer saying buying a lower margin, lower performing product for the same application. It's specifically in flow and filtration, our Ag business has higher margins than our residential and commercial business. And so when Ag goes down and residential goes up, we get a negative mix. So, it isn’t product substitution in application, it's just a mix of what's growing and what isn’t. And in the Thermal business and technical solutions, again products MRO has high margins, project doesn't. So, we actually expected MRO to come back, maybe that was Pollyannaish, probably was but it didn’t, and therefore all the projects that we were happy about winning kind of overwhelmed margins for Thermal.
Deane Dray:
And just to clarify, when you say in your reference Ag, this is irrigation pumps that you primarily exposed?
Randall Hogan:
There is two pieces in there, both in inflow and filtration that we're talking about that have seen big negatives. One is irrigation and year-over-year it held up pretty well last year because we have pretty high share where there were droughts and then was a lot of activity drilling new wells because of the drought. We don’t have that impact this year. And the second is in crop spray, where we had we've actually been listening to the graveyard a little bit because we've been not declining the shaft as the market, and this is largely OEMs and distribution where we sell these precision spray systems that are used in agriculture as well. And that market remains depressed.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. And then on as unrelated topic. We had the opportunity last month to see Pentair as attractive new business in China for residential water treatment. So, this is a brand new market for us to see. And estimates reported like 20% to 30% growth annually and you all have being recognized as one of the leaders in this business, are basically mini RO systems for home appliances that are being bought by the rising middle class who just can't drink the water without boiling it. So, I haven’t seen you talk about this opportunity before but we saw everyone's talking about it. Maybe you can talk about what the opportunity is, how it fits, what the ramp is and what kind of contribution you should expect?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. I probably should talk about it more, stop fighting fires. What's really interesting is there is much more awareness about the importance of safe clean water among the middle class and the developing world than there is in the US and Europe. Now, for sad reasons, there is increasing awareness in the US. We say a bump in the US because of the concern about drinking water in cities and schools and we could see that in our orders. And we are the largest provider of equipment for residential water treatment and filtration in the world. That business has been growing nicely. The little bit in China, we do have a nice exposure there, it has been lumpy because a lot of ours goes through distribution and it's been as credit has been harder to get there. Some of our distributors have had to slow down. But if you take a look at it over the last few years, it has been growing very substantially. And I move that business to Karl Frykman and his WQS team a couple of years ago because we were the largest player in that business but we weren’t the best performing in that business. And we made huge progress under Karl's leadership in taking that order, filtration, that part. It did water filtration, water filtration is made up of that residential and commercial and the foodservice piece, the Everpure brand, if you will. And a lot of the margin expansion you saw in WQS is actually because of the momentum we're gaining there. And we'll talk more about it.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Winoker from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning folks.
Randall Hogan:
Good morning.
Steven Winoker:
And can maybe talk a little bit through the progress Bess is making in flow & filtration and kind of I mean it's still early days in many ways. But just talk about where you are in that task and how the quarter as you sort of look forward where you think this could head at least to over the next four quarters?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. I think Bess' progress is good. I mean, no one was more disciplined, it was not getting growth in the second quarter than she will. And I think we need to get more traction and she believes we need to get more traction on the things we're investing in the grow. We shouldn’t be surprised by what happened in irrigation. We need to be more intimate and close with the customer. And we need to keep driving on the areas that are working, like the shift to industrial water and capture as much of the infrastructure and rest as soon as possible. We still believe that there is probably more growth opportunities in the offerings that she leads and the markets that she served and any other business we have. There's no reason FFS shouldn’t be able grow and perform just like WQS.
Steven Winoker:
And what are the biggest ones that jump out of you in that, beside sort of the in Chinese water, when we all saw over the last year?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. Well, I mean, the infrastructure globally, there's a return to investments particularly in the [indiscernible] Moses and other water filtration on the municipal and the commercial scale. We have leading positions in advanced technologies for water we use, methane capture, CO2 capture for food & beverage and we're having promising early results, we need to flood this own and get more advanced in those businesses. And also, just in terms of our membrane technology. I think there is too narrow of focus of where we're applying our technologies and we need to be planful about it but the opportunities for us to be if you well Pentair inside, on membranes in a lot of applications which we are component supplier to high value applications.
Steven Winoker:
Okay and Randy if I could just come back at that Valves & Controls answer you gave earlier, I guess something come out little bit differently which is considering how you are thinking about Valves & Controls from kind of day one in terms of strategic fit with the rest of the portfolio and the opportunity, I mean to what extend is for getting price and everything else here, to what extend is the strategic fit of that segment important to how Pentair grows going forward in your mind and then the importance to the other segments or from some other perspective that would suggest that it's really still going to be worth more to you than somebody else.
Randall Hogan:
Well, I see a good runway ahead for performance improvement there and what are we good at. We are good at performance improvement. So I think we have really turned the corner in the business. I am not going to strategy right here but it gives us great scale and it has great scale. I mean it's a large player in a large fragmented business and we speculated before on what needs to happen in industry we are not going to speculate anymore right now.
Steven Winoker:
Alright, that's helpful. I got it. Thanks very much. I will pass it on.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi guys.
Randall Hogan:
Hi Steve.
Steve Tusa:
Thanks for the color on Chinese water business, I appreciate that. The tech product segment, the margins were cut there and you talked about mix is there any how do you look kind of price cost dynamics there and how much deal do you guys buy on an annual basis?
Randall Hogan:
How many deals we buy in? A lot, I mean there is couple hundred million dollars Steve but I think we take a look at the technical solutions margins. It's really simply that there was expectation that we would see the MRO in the aftermarket product side which is a very, very high margin product line kind of basically not gravity and it was going to where they were planning on to be flat to up and it's down double-digits in Q2 and so we are seeing a margin squeeze between that products fall off and it was an expectation that that would rally in the second half and we have taken away that expectation to second half now and the anticipation that we are not going to see any recovery in the aftermarket side. We deferred that aftermarket. We covered it to 2017 and so that product decline of double-digit is really impacting the squeeze in the margins for technical solutions.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. Got it. It's ritually the thermal stuff, I mean what are you seeing in the chain in technical I mean Wesco reported today pretty weak volume number and all these distributors and Rockwell talked about push outs in their business. So what are you seeing in the - you talked about the stabilization but -for Enclosures, for the core Enclosures business?
Randall Hogan:
Yes, for the core Enclosures we did see, we have seen stabilization in our daily order rate and it's interesting there is quite a mix of what we are learning from what distributors are saying and clearly ones that are deeply industrial facing are facing more challenges than one more balanced are skewed towards commercial and we do serve multiple market. So maybe that's why we are seeing the flat.
Steve Tusa:
Okay and then one last question just on Valves, does the order I know like things bottom sequentially but I mean historically I think seasonally Q2 kind of an average single business in the world is better than first quarter so not sure what that tells us I think you said double-digit increase sequentially in the third quarter, something that the order comp year-to-date probably? Sorry.
Randall Hogan:
Double digit.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, double-digit. Okay. So that kind of brings the year-to-date probably year-over-year to down still down double-digit does that change the complexion of how you are feeling about 2017 or does this sequence to the sequential dynamics now kind of like really make feel maybe little worse in 2Q but better in 3Q make you feel like you are still on track for that kind of flat EBITD type of hope for 2Q for 2017.
John Stauch:
Yes Steve, I think what we feel is that we have got a fairly high past two backlogs that we are still working on from standpoint of on time delivery roughly 70% not great by any standard I mean not horrible in the industry but not great by Pentair standard. So we are working at past two backlogs that's helping revenue. When you take a look at the orders and what Randy mentioned not getting any large orders it means that our conversion ratio is going to be higher. So we feel like as we head into 2017 even ending the year with lower orders in 2016, we think our conversion ratio is going to get back to historical norms which is around 51% of orders that are booked in the year and shipped in that year. That trough last year around 43% so I think we feel like we are starting to get that mix up as we mentioned with more aftermarket standard and so we feel like right now 2017 is an up year versus 2016 for me from the income side for sure. And orders will continue to rally in 2017 from this point the way we are looking at.
Randall Hogan:
Exactly and the other thing I would add is that we have really fixed funnel, we are looking at has been cleansed, high quality.
Steve Tusa:
Pretty attractive for any buyer out there. Thanks a lot guys.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Hi, thanks. Good morning guys. I am going to ask Steve's questions slightly differently. And so, if you look at your expectation for double-digit sequential order growth that would imply that your orders for the second half of the year were down call it like roughly mid single-digits. Comps would kind of get you to down mid tens and so there is underlying improvement embedded in that number and I am just wondering like did the things get much better, is the quarter progress and what’s given you the confidence in the underlying improvement in the order number in the second half of the year?
John Stauch:
Yes, I hit on this in Analyst Day last year and then we have had several sessions with the business since. But we have a fairly sizable project contribution as we worked our way through the 2014 and 2015 timeframe and as Randy mentioned not having a single order greater than $5 million over the last several quarters means that we have got a rich backlog or rich funnel of shorter cycle orders, higher margins. So I think where we are is that we do believe we are going to start to see some projects and we are working on those on the funnel and those will be contribution but if you look at the order rates and the order levels absence of those large project orders is actually a pretty good contribution and so when you think about that as a base and that base moving fairly stable, any orders on top of that gives you great excitement that we are going to start to see a ramp from here.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Okay but is there like any specific end markets that are driving these improvements?
John Stauch:
Yes, we are starting to see the downstream investment again. The OpEx has been turned off for some period of time. We are starting to see a fair amount of aftermarket consolidation. So our customer spending with the scale providers which gives us great excitement of being the largest valves supplier in our space that we are going to see a lot more aftermarket consolidation and that's a big growth opportunity for us. And then, we also are back in the game in the Middle East and we are starting to see order contribute to the Middle East where we have been out of that game for some time.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, alright. Maybe one follow-up and it looks done a really nice job on the tech solution side, I guess the question I have is you saw a little bit margin degradation this quarter on flat growth. Your expectation for the back half of the year is for growth to be down from margins to flatten and actually improve versus 2Q and so maybe just kind of talk through some of the puts and takes there on the tech solutions margin from the second half?
John Stauch:
Yes, we are finishing a job in Q2 that was a six bit job in thermal and we had some overrun on the labor side on that project. So that job is ending early Q3 and so with that behind us we are back to more of a normal project margins and normal product margins so it was one large job that we worked through last year and we have the final labor runs going through Q2 and early Q3 and then it's behind us.
Joe Ritchie:
And what was that impact John?
John Stauch:
It was a project order and it was fixed hourly or fixed fee and we over ran the labor to install it and complete the job. And so it ended in Q2 and Q3 so it's finishing up here in July and then we are going to see those orders or see that margin get better from here.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay I have a follow-up on impact later. Thank you guys.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Robert Baird. Your line is open.
Mike Halloran:
Hey good morning everyone. So, a couple full filtration questions. First on the water reuse side obviously you got some lumpiness in your process filtration piece in general. Maybe you could just talk about in the underlying momentum there what the core trends from the industry look like and then how your positioning is and how are you doing on a relative basis?
John Stauch:
Just the process filtration piece?
Mike Halloran:
Yes, and I have a second one on the hag side.
Randall Hogan:
Yes, I think that we have a lot of capability and we have not fully achieved ignition in the marketplace. Infrastructure we have pretty good reach globally to basically the components that go in the large projects and we do pretty well there. Our hit rate when we compete for industrial is pretty good. We need to get more FX on that. And similarly I think that there is a vast opportunity for us to sell membrane bundles and not just modules and systems. So I think we are early days in terms of all the growth opportunities of the process filtration have.
Mike Halloran:
And then, on the hag side obviously some challenging comps year-over-year some challenging trend industry wise, talk about the sequential trends are you seeing any signs of stability in industry relative to what a normal sequential would look and what’s the thought process going forward?
Randall Hogan:
You are talking about full filtration in total? Well, given the lack of good predictability that we have going in the second quarter I will be less confident in answering we expect to see some improvements in crops rate coming and but irrigation I think is going to be we are - this is irrigation season. So the fact that it wasn't up now it means it won’t be up in the third quarter. It tracks pretty closely with farm income unless you have an issue like we have with the drought.
Mike Halloran:
Right but I guess I am more asking stability emerging at on that side for you guys with all the headwinds there or do you think that there is still more swing ahead?
Randall Hogan:
Not worsening, not bettering no. I would say.
Mike Halloran:
Great. Thanks guys.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning gents. Hey so $20 million of steel purchases you called out is that just for TSO, was that Pentair wide?
Randall Hogan:
Pentair wide
Nigel Coe:
Okay that's what I thought. I just wanted to clarify on that point. So on BNC margins can you maybe just help just to from 2Q to 15% do we still have a FIFO tailwinds into the second half-of-the-year or is the gap between low doubles to mid tens is that primarily cost saves at this point?
Randall Hogan:
This is small little tailwind from the variances associated with last year productivity working its way through Q1 and Q2 but most of it is the momentum of the incremental cost saves on the operational side and also some momentum around material savings working its way through the shipments.
Nigel Coe:
Okay and I guess the fact is that there is no price and degradation in the margin bridge, its board line shocking I think we were all expecting that to be price and headwind this year is that because the price in the markets is, we just haven't seen price cuts because the end market conditions are so awful? Or is it just primarily a function of Pentair walking away from low price projects maybe a bit of a mix issue as well. Maybe any kind of color on pricing would be helpful?
John Stauch:
Yes Nigel, just to be clear and thank you for asking the question our price that shows up in the Valves & Controls chart is a like product to like product. Sub-standard product and it's an aftermarket usually and it's a like for like. We are seeing as we have talked about over the last several quarters the project margin headwind that works its way into the growth and the FX bar on the right as far as segment income so we are seeing that project mix and project pricing work its way through that and that is stabilized but it's still on the year-over-year basis pretty large as you can see there.
Nigel Coe:
Okay and then quick clarification FFS, the three point delta the true down on the full year, is that a little -- issues or is there something there?
John Stauch:
That's pretty much just the hag issues.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, great that's good. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
Randall Hogan:
Morning Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Just a follow-up on Nigel’s question there we have heard company talking about demand is so lousy and some of those oil and gas kind of markets that there is no point in telling price. Would you expect that there could be any increased pricing competition as orders do rebound as spokes to compete for that volume?
Randall Hogan:
Yes, I mean I don't know if it gets worse from here, Nathan but I don't think we are planning on getting too much better from here on those projects. I think I personally believe that a lot of that reset in pricing was the foreign exchange resets since a lot of these valve producers are outside United States and the euro going down major products more affordable and I think the big EPC is taking advantage of that and so I think it's stabilizing now as most people have taken up the capacity but I don't think it's going to recover to the levels that it used to be at either.
Nathan Jones:
So you wouldn't expect to say in the back half of the yea order rates improve any additional pricing pressure as people compete for that volumes.
Randall Hogan:
We don't think so, no.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Then my other question on water quality solutions you talked about growth investments in the second half can you give us some more color on what those growth investments are and maybe what the impact on margins is in the back half-of-the-year and if there is continuing investments or disgrace investments?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. Before I get into the specific investment so what we meant was that we had such a nice increase in margins I just don't think people should expect it to be that good and we gave you some insights on what we expect the margins to be. The investments are basically in two. One is product innovation and the other one is in channel in geography investments and sales coverage. So maybe it's 50 bips a quarter in the investment increase and one is it's a business that as the conversation about China and the conversation we talked earlier about pool business it really is a business that is yielding the innovation so product innovation pays and then as I mentioned we are applying some of the pool playbook to water purification to get more eminent and closer to the customer and those are the geography and channel investments we are making.
Nathan Jones:
So it sounds like continuing investment that you grade the rewards on the top line?
Randall Hogan:
Right, right.
Nathan Jones:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond from KeyBanc, your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hey good morning guys.
Randall Hogan:
Good morning.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Not to beat this too hard, but the I am just trying to - get a better sense of where you are seeing this sequential improvement visibility that 10% improvement what sub verticals and is it your customers telling your or actually in order rates or --
Randall Hogan:
You are talking about valves?
Jeffrey Hammond:
Yes.
John Stauch:
Yes okay. Great. Yes, listen we are - we have had a fairly sizable frontline for a period of time and I think as Randy mentioned we scrubbed it. We have discounted the larger projects from the expectations that those were closed this year, but what we did when we reorganized the sales force is put a lot more energy and effort in the aftermarket side and one of the things we bring to the table to a lot of the larger customers is the ability to service a vast majority of valves and the way that we are servicing those right now is on an aggregated buy basis from those customers and then also working inside their factory to their plants to be able to benefit from that. So that's the big piece of it. The second one is that there has been some Pentair demand on the downstream side especially the MRO downstream and as we always said we don't think that that could be deferred forever and we’re starting to see that start to come in. So, we are not declaring victory yet I think we are saying is that we believe the Q2 represents the bottom of the orders and we are starting to see the increase from here. A double-digit increase of the Q2 is still a modest level of orders that we - versus what we are used to but at least the sign that we are going to see that downstream investments start to come back.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay helpful and then just free cash flow came in a lot better how are you thinking about upside the free cash flow for the year?
John Stauch:
Right now we are committed to the 100% of that income and we are tracking as we said $150 million better than last year but we are focused on this and obviously getting our debt paid down.
Randall Hogan:
We are not only $150 million ahead of last year we are ahead of where we thought be this.
John Stauch:
Yes, but Jeff I think we got to see another quarter too before we obviously - we will too have it but anyway we need to see another quarter before we are going to declare that there is upside to that number.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay thanks guys.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Hey good morning. I have a question on water quality system first not Valves & Controls. You are looking for a nice bump up in organic in the third quarter and we are just hoping you can give us little color around that?
Randall Hogan:
Yes, there is a couple of factors. One is the Europe comp in water purification in the second quarter was tough so we didn't show growth there. We think that it gets better. And then and we talked about the pool timing. And the pool marketing you can look at comp, there is few comps you can look at. The pool market is really quite strong and we think that more that will read out too. You will see that more because of the timing comp, the timing won’t mess up the comp.
John Stauch:
Yes, the weather can have an impact on the timing of the pool season Scott and last year there was a very, very strong Q2 and we are now back to more of a normal trend on a year-over-year basis in Q3 and as we shared I mean our product and environmental system business has been growing yearly double digit now for four five years in a row so we feel really good about the visibility to the summer and feel very good about the growth rate for Q3.
Scott Graham:
Yes, makes sense. Thank you. The other question I had was simply on the shrinkage of the footprint in the past you have given us some metrics of improvement that where it was whether it was facility or people or otherwise anything you are willing to share this quarter?
John Stauch:
No. I mean we have few more factories in the works to reduce. So we are just under 100 total factories to Pentair and we expect to have reduced it by around five or six by the beginning of the year to the end of the year so we are modestly addressing it where we feel we have excess capacity due to the end markets that we are serving but we are not aggressively reducing the factory at this time.
Scott Graham:
Alright, very good, thank you.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joshua Pokrzywinski from The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Your line is open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Hi good morning guys. I have heard all at this point. I will put them on the roster with the rest of them.
Randall Hogan:
Joshua Pokrzywinski go ahead.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Yes, just to come back to tech product side, I understand there is some mix issues that you are talking about in thermal but we have heard a lot of companies call out particularly price cost obviously it's a steel intensive business. I would have imagined a bit more support from price cost in this quarter particularly on the Enclosure side and maybe a bit more turnaround headwind in the second half and I guess all the questions or responses around tech product seems to be focusing more on thermal than on Enclosures or ERICO so just trying to dimension out within I guess Hoffman or maybe ERICO specifically how you see mix evolving there, how you see some of the margin read out particularly it retain price cost?
Randall Hogan:
Yes, we have done really well on the price costs on both ERICO and Enclosure so we did single out the thermal business Josh primarily because that is not really steel related it's more of the heat tracing cable versus the labor and the integration cost to bring that project to there so when we take on the projects and we are doing the design the engineering and the install and then we’re bringing the cable along we are going to have a compression of margins when the product side is down. And as we mentioned the aftermarket MRO sometimes goes to distribution or go direct to the end site and again installed and that's the part that's been down double-digit. So we are up significantly in the project side. We are down in the product side and we’re experiencing an overall mix issue even though we are up in the revenue.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
But just to be clear on Enclosures and ERICO, no change increase, decrease in the margins versus 1Q for the full year outlook?
Randall Hogan:
No change and we have probably experiencing a little bit modest headwind on Q3 and Q4 and I save a couple million dollars in the rising cost of the steel, but not anything significant.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got you and then just shifting gears to water quality. I think I know you mentioned the easy comp in Europe is that a low mix dynamic where you wouldn't see lot of pool through profitability on that I guess having just said there is a late start to the pool season maybe that's still over in the third quarter you got the strong volume quarter coming. I would imagine that margin would look little bit better than what you showed or what you are showing in guidance?
Randall Hogan:
Well, water purification in Europe pool isn't that big in Europe but the water purification side is and margins there are bad. Is there little mix…
John Stauch:
I think there is, Randy mentioned, there is the desire to do significant growth investment and this is a business that absolutely deserves to do these growth investments and we factor them in at the business, spending them. The likelihood that they would actually spend them would be low.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got you but there is no blue bird in the second quarter apart from just good mix - okay.
Randall Hogan:
No. not at all.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got you, alright, thanks guys.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer & Co. Your line is open.
Christopher Glynn:
Thanks good morning. Hey so the tech solutions trends overall shown a little revenue upside but some negative mix on the thermal side. With the intuition be for 2017 to have some favorable mix versions on margin and little bit of net organic pressure or you kind of see thermal more likely to compound the growth?
John Stauch:
Early to call that but I think your intuition are about right.
Randall Hogan:
Yes, I would certainly start with that. William started that.
John Stauch:
I think your intuition we are doing now is correct.
Christopher Glynn:
Okay and then just comment on how to size the corporate line in the second half?
Randall Hogan:
Yes, I think you should look at around $43ish million divided equally between Q3 and Q4.
Christopher Glynn:
Great, that's all I got. Thanks.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Robert Barry from Susquehanna International Group, your line is open.
Robert Barry:
Hey guys, good morning, so I wanted to clarify in Valves the improvement you expect in the second half, is that on the aftermarket?
John Stauch:
Yes, we've got a little bit more short cycle, product shipments and also getting up with past two backlog, so we see that we're expecting to get a slightly higher standard margins we move that through the shipments, and we also as we mentioned that we took in a fair amount of deferred variances from last year, which I think we spent more than we should have on the labor side and we had a belief that off in the first couple of quarters this year, so we have a little tailwind associated with that.
Robert Barry:
Got you, and I think in an answer to an earlier question you alluded to some of the deferred maintenance starting to show up, is that refinery maintenance you're seeing come through it?
Randall Hogan:
I don't think refinery, we're seeing more of the petrochem spending come through, which has been actively being bit, one thing that seems pretty clear is that now that the rapid decline in capital spending has happened, our customers are really sorted out normally who is working on it, who has stored and formed it, which projects are going to go forward with and we execute a little projects, we talk a lot of our big projects as the thing is that they move a needle a lot, but our average project size is $100 million, so those are small outage turnarounds just maintenance related activities and so I think we’re going to get into a more normalized albeit lower level of how they’re deployed.
Robert Barry:
That’s good to hear. Just lastly you’ve been making a lot of changes to the sales organization in Valves, at this point are all of these changes kind of net, net helping or hurting the order growth?
Randall Hogan:
I think the structure itself is the right structure I think when you make this level of change where you have project oriented sales people trying to call in the aftermarket you’re going to find areas where that’s the wrong skill set and I think that’s where we’re going to have to continue to migrate the sales force to the right skill set overtime and to say we’re optimized to the moment I would say is not accurate and I think we think the structure is right and what we now need to do is get the processes, the support for the structure operating fully and then we think we can benefit going forward. Has that hurt us, probably here and there but not dramatically.
Robert Barry:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time and if you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference you may dial 1-800-585-8367. Again if you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference you may dial 1-800-585-8367.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good morning. This is Steve, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. Please go ahead.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Steve, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. We're glad you can join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. And with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2016 performance, as well as our second quarter and full year 2016 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to preserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and get back in the queue for further questions in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. We were pleased with our first quarter result, beating the expectation set at the beginning of the year. The top line was consistent with expectations, and we saw a strong execution in all businesses led by three segments delivering over 100 basis points of margin expansion each. We recently announced a new leader for our Valves & Controls segment. We're all glad to have Dennis Cassidy join us most recently from AlixPartners. I appreciate John Stauch leaning in and leading Valves & Controls the past few quarters; and Valves & Controls business delivered first quarter results in line with our guidance. Integration of ERICO is meeting our expectations, and we believe we're on track to meet or exceed the $10 million in synergies we targeted. Free cash flow, while a seasonally usage during the quarter, was much better than the comparable period last year. Given the strong start to free cash flow this year, we feel good about our ability to deliver approximately $750 million in free cash this year. We're maintaining our 2016 full-year adjusted EPS outlook of $4.05 to $4.25 per share. Execution for cash and earnings remain our key focus in the first quarter given the good start to the year. Now, let's turn to slide 5 for a discussion of our Q1 2016 results in more detail. First quarter core sales grew 1%, which is an improvement from the declines we saw the past couple of quarters. Three over four segments met or beat their top-line commitments with Flow & Filtration Solutions being negatively impacted by timing of beverage shipments. ERICO contributed positively with sales in line with our expectations. Segment income increased 5% and return on sales contracted 20 basis points to 13.3%. Three segments delivered margin expansion greater than 100 basis points, and Valves & Controls met its first quarter income and margin commitments. Adjusted EPS was flat at $0.76 per share and was ahead of our guidance of $0.70 to $0.72 per share. As I mentioned previously, free cash flow started much better this year with a small usage in the quarter, and it was over a $100 million improvement year-over-year. Now, let's turn to slide 6 for more details on Pentair's Q1 2016 performance. Our sales performance by vertical was mixed with strong growth in Residential & Commercial and in Infrastructure, which helped partially offset continued sluggishness in Energy. We saw some signs of stabilization in our Industrial businesses. And while Food & Beverage was down in the quarter, we continue to believe this vertical will deliver full year growth, as shipments in our Beverage business can be choppy. Our largest vertical, Residential & Commercial, saw 11% sales growth to start the year led by double-digit growth in Water Quality Systems and Technical Solutions and solid growth in Flow & Filtration Solutions. Infrastructure did turn positive on strength in both North American Municipal Pumps and improved project activity in our Process Filtration business globally. The rate of decline within Industrial moderated for the quarter, and we're encouraged by what we believe are signs of stabilization in this, our second largest vertical. Food & Beverage started the year slowly, impacting our Flow & Filtration Solution results, that is principally the result of timing around Beverage shipments I mentioned and ongoing weakness in Irrigation. It's no surprise that Energy remains weak. And while we expected this vertical to continue to be down this year, we believe our non-Energy businesses are positioned to more than compensate for this weakness. Energy now represents just over 20% of our sales and an even smaller percentage of our profits. We continue to believe the remaining 80% of our portfolio is well positioned particularly, within Residential & Commercial and Food & Beverage verticals. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, productivity remains strong and more than offset inflation. Price was a modest positive in the quarter, and ERICO contributed strength to the bottom line on strong underlying performance and synergies. Now, let's turn to slide seven for a review of our segment and major platform structure. We want to remind everyone of the alignment of our businesses which we introduced at our Investor Day last November. Underneath, are four segments, we've grouped activities into 10 strategic business groups or SBGs to better prioritize our resource allocation across the company. We'll discuss the SBG performance within each segment. For a more detailed look at each SBG, please refer to our presentation on our website from the 2015 Investor Day. Our Water business is split between two segments, with Flow & Filtration Solutions focused around a solutions approach and Water Quality Systems business, aligned by product distribution. Technical Solutions has three well-positioned electrical businesses. And we've realigned our Valves & Controls business around two key selling motions
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 14, titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. We ended the first quarter with $4.8 billion of net debt inclusive of cash on hand. This is a slight increase from our year-end debt levels due to seasonal working capital build, particularly in our residential and commercial businesses. As Randy mentioned earlier, our free cash flow was over $100 million better to start the year versus the comparable period last year. While we did consume minimal cash in the quarter, in line with historical patterns, we continue to expect to deliver our free cash flow target of approximately $750 million for the year. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 9.6%. Our capital expenditure forecast remains unchanged at approximately $150 million as we continue to invest in the businesses that have earned the right to grow, especially Water Quality Systems and Technical Solutions and drive deeper disciplines into our Valves & Controls factories. Please turn to slide 15 labeled Q2 2016 Pentair outlook. For the second quarter, we expect core sales to decline approximately 3% and total sales to increase 4% inclusive of FX headwinds and a positive contribution from ERICO. On a core sales basis, we expect Water Quality Systems to grow approximately 5% as the segment enters its seasonally strongest period. Flow & Filtration Solutions' core sales are expected to be up modestly as the business continues to reposition itself and comparisons become easier. Technical Solutions is expected to have a core sales decline of roughly 3% as two projects in the Thermal Management business are completed and Enclosures faces another tough year-over-year comparison. Finally, Valves & Controls core sales are expected to decline approximately 13% as the project backlog remains weak and we remain cautious in the short term as to whether the Aftermarket business will accelerate after the slow start to the year. We are expecting segment income to increase approximately 5% and return on sales to be roughly flat at 16.5%. Below the operating income line, we continue to expect the tax rate to remain around 20.5%. Net interest and other to approximate $35 million and shares outstanding to be just over 182 million. Our second quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $1.08 to $1.11, which is an increase of approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect a seasonal ramp-up in free cash flow and further improvement in our working capital performance. Please turn to slide 16 labeled Full Year 2016 Pentair Outlook. We are maintaining our full-year adjusted EPS outlook of $4.05 to $4.25 with very few changes to our prior forecast. For the full year, we still expect total Pentair core sales to decline approximately 1%. Water Quality Systems full-year core sales are anticipated to be up approximately 5% as both its Aquatic and Environmental Systems and Water Filtration businesses are well positioned to continue driving the growth rates experienced the last several years. Flow & Filtration Solutions core sales are expected to be up approximately 2% for the full year, led by stabilization in Water Technologies and growth in both Fluid Solutions and Process Filtration. Technical Solutions is expected to see core sales decline roughly 2%, which is slightly better than our prior forecast, as the Thermal Management backlog has grown and we have seen stabilization in Enclosures daily order rates. Finally, Valves & Controls core sales are still expected to decline roughly 8% given our current view of orders for the full year. We expect segment income to grow roughly 9% and return on sales to expand approximately 90 basis points to 16.5% with three of our four segments delivering full-year margin expansion. We continue to anticipate full-year corporate cost to be just over $90 million, net interest and other roughly $140 million and the share count to be just over 182 million; all essentially in line with previous expectations. Adjusted EPS is expected to be up approximately 5% to midpoint of the range. Finally, we expect a strong year of free cash flow at approximately $750 million, which represents roughly 100% of our adjusted net income. Steve, can you please open the line for questions? Thank you.
Operator:
Yes. And your first question comes from the line of Steven Winoker from Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks, guys, and good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Just a couple of quick questions. The first one is can you maybe comment on the treasury rules and regulations that came out, particularly regarding earnings stripping and the impact you see on Pentair's tax rate over time?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes, Steve. Still obviously, processing, it's a very generic rule now. We've got to look into the specificity of all of it. But in the next several years or at least the longer term, for however long we have the debt in place, we don't see any impact to our overall tax rate. But clearly, the rules would challenge acquiring North American businesses and layering on new debt onto those businesses. So, we would have to take advantage of our operational synergies to get to those tax synergies that we would have. And, clearly, any acquisition in the future needs to strategically fit and be an operational synergistic acquisition, and then we would look to utilize our advantaged structure to still gain the cash fluidity and then, ultimately, advance the cash strategies on a more permanent basis.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then there's been quite a lot of speculation, Randy, about how you're positioning Valves & Controls. Clearly, you've been improving the business and we can see that. But part of that debate is whether Pentair is a consolidator or consolidatee in this business over time or what your desire is? Can you maybe comment on how you're thinking about it?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, yeah, I think there's been some confusion about that. I think it was not a secret that we saw ourselves with our structure and with this really great business that we have in Valves & Controls. And in a fragmented industry like Valves & Controls, or in Flow in general, as a likely consolidator. And what I've said is right now, we're not focused on being a consolidator. We're focused on fixing what we got. So, our focus really is on continuing to get our margins back. And we believe, as I've mentioned in the prepared remarks, we believe we are on the road to do that. We'd like to see the first quarter be the natter, if you will, on return on sales for the business, and continue to execute, because the business has a lot of headroom. Even without revenue, as I've said, even without revenue recovery, I believe we can get back to teens. And we want to prove that.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. And just when...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't want to be laying stuff over it at this point.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's clear. And just a quick one, organic growth ex those large projects, the large thermal projects in the quarter, what was that if you took those out, the big one?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Flattish.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC. Your line is now open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Deane.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, in Water Quality specifically Aquatics, that's impressive core revenue growth of 13%. So, it looks like you got off to a strong spring selling season in pool. Anything regarding like a pre-buy that happened? Are there going to be any comp issues? And how does this business set up for the second quarter, because that's also seasonally important?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Deane. Our dealers are the pool builders. They exited last year with a pretty good backlog of pools unbuilt. So they entered the year with a backlog of business to do, plus we have all the rebate programs and all the advanced equipment, the Eco Select line we have. So we really think it's – there's share gain, but it's generally market. There's not a lot of pre-buy. The early-buy program we had was not remarkable. And so a lot of this is not the big early-buy product but real – if you will, stocking to sell through or normal seasonal stocking to sell through. So we've had a lot of momentum in that business and we continue to invest in that business in sales and in new product development in order to keep the momentum going.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Do you have a sense of the product vitality of your pool equipment recently? I know you had the IntelliFlo, but just how much of that product line is new in the last three years?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think I'll get the number wrong. It's close to 30% right now. And it's not just the IntelliFlo – in fact, we have a new – the next versions of IntelliFlo are coming now. But there's new controls, there's new LED lighting, there's new heaters. There's really a complete new suite of product, all aimed at fitting that Eco Select sustainability mark. And as you – I think as you saw we just got the third ENERGY STAR award from the EPA which makes us a sustained sustainer. I don't think they call it. So, we feel really good about that business, and we got a lot more growth. And, as you know, that was the basis, it was our strength there, that was the basis of foundation of our aquaculture business, which is, again, just managing bodies of water.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Understood. And then, over on the Valves & Controls side, so you've added Dennis Cassidy to the team. And I'm interested in hearing, as you bring him onboard, he's coming in midstream and that's an unfortunate pun, but he's onboard when you already have an existing restructuring plan, existing commitments and just what's the continuity in terms of leadership there? Was John going to be still part-time there? Does he roll off? And should we expect any tweaking to the plan and the commitments because you said you're going to exit 2016 which will be if the math works in the teens in margins. I just want to know what kind of variability there might be with the change in leadership?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, it took us a while to find the right person for the reason that the business is facing some challenges and we needed someone who's up to it. I'm quite excited to have Dennis. Dennis from AlixPartners, I know AlixPartners has a reputation for transformations and restructuring. And he has some of that experience, but he also has some extraordinarily deep and successful experience doing value stream transformations in the oilfield services business. And he's deeply engaged in the energy field. So, as we – well, let me back up. He spent a lot of time getting to know the business and the programs that are in place, and he's totally onboard with them. And he'll tweak them, and he certainly has – as president, he has full right to do that. But, it's again, tweak to, tweak, it'll be tweaks to get us to the objectives we have. One area where he will be very focused is on these two value streams, Aftermarket and Projects and tuning, if you will, the business, so that we can really focus on the Aftermarket so that as it comes back, we can gain share there. I think, as we've said before, we really didn't differentiate the way we served Aftermarket versus Project. And by tuning the system, we believe that we can get growth in that market. And the fact that he's intimate with the industry is really, really beneficial and that he's done things like this before. As for John, he's back to being CFO full time and Dennis doesn't need his help anymore than, what he'll get with John as CFO.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And that's plenty.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's great to hear. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Joe.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey. So, I heard a few times in your script, you guys mentioned the word stabilization. And so, I want to touch on that a little bit, specifically is it relates to the order rates what you're seeing in your front log in Industrials. And, I guess, what implication, if anything, did that have to the guidance range – did the guidance raise you had in Tech Solutions?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I can answer that, Joe. I mean, very little. I think the word stabilization is really related to the fact that when we exited Q4, we saw double-digit declines in our North American Industrial space. And clearly, Q1 became a big quarter to see if that was going to continue or start to recover in. Clearly, we had achieved our expectation in Q1, but we also saw order rates on a daily basis start to, as we said, stabilize, which means becoming less worse and starting to improve on a day-to-day basis. A long way to what we'd say is a growth recovery but certainly gives us more confidence of the Enclosures business and also the North American Industrial hitting its expectations for the year. The tweaks to Technical Solutions are really around, we continue to build a project backlog in the Industrial Heat Trace business. We feel really good about that backlog. It is impacting margins slightly, but we ultimately feel that that project backlog will shift this year, and that was our tweak to the revenue numbers in Technical Solutions.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And just was there any change to the kind of $30 million to $40 million headwind that you guys expected to see from the megaprojects rolling down?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No, there isn't. It's the same.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then, I guess, maybe my follow-up question, just touching V&C. So, you hit your margin target for the first quarter. And clearly, there's a ramp in your guidance for the remainder of the year. Can you just kind of touch on the key factors that are going to help you get to that ramp? I think, last quarter, we touched on short-cycle mix. There was something related to your inventories as well. Maybe touch on the factors that are going to allow you to get from the 6.5% to teens margin in V&C as we progress through the year.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think Randy said it very eloquently in his script on last year's higher inventory rolling off this year. And to help you quantify that, let's think of somewhere around $25 million of cost that needs to roll into the first half of the year. And you can think about that split between Q1 and Q2. And if you think about that as last year's coming in and we've got our cost base now in line with what we're shipping and building, you kind of see the headwinds that we're factoring in Q1 and Q2 that are no longer there in Q3 and Q4. Plus, we see the acceleration of a lot of the head count actions and people-related cost-out actions come into the benefit to Q3 and Q4 as well. So, very little revenue expectations from a standpoint of anything beyond what's in the backlog and still assuming double-digit declines in aftermarket in Q2. And it's really about the actions we took last year and the timing of how those actions flow through between Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So, I just wanted to be clear on the tax question. So, is there – like, is there risk that the tax rate is going up or what are you kind of messaging here? That there's kind of TBDs that need to be worked out? What is kind of the final message on that for now?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
The simple answer is everything they've announced has nothing to do with anyone who's already got the structure, and we already got the structure. That's point one. Point two is we have to figure out what it means for things we do in the future. But right now, we're not doing anything because we're focused on cash and earnings execution. But when we get back to doing acquisitions, we're going to have to look to see what the impact is in terms of what's called the debt pushdown strategy, what they called earnings stripping. We still – on whatever we do, we'll still have the opportunities to focus on operating synergies, as John said. And we still have the ability to move cash around freely which is an extraordinary advantage that doesn't get focused on as much in our tax structure versus our former tax structure.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right. And you don't have to keep as you grow earnings, you don't have to keep adding inter-company debt to kind of make sure that that extra income is shielded, for lack of a better term?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Got it. On the Valves, I think, you made – I joined the call a little bit late, but I think you called the Valves recovery two years out. Can you just maybe expand on that a little more? Does that mean you don't expect growth until really 2018, is that a simple way of saying that?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No. What we said was that we – and it was an imprecise comment. It was actually an adlib off the script. We think there's a chance that project orders will bottom out in the second half this year which wouldn't give us growth until next year, second part of 2017 – so, maybe 18 months. Right now, we're not clairvoyant. But if we saw projects start to recover in the second half then ultimately it will give us growth about (36:16).
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So, can you grow in 2017 do you think at this stage?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think we can grow in 2017.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Particularly, Aftermarket has to come back. I mean, the fact that Aftermarket is down and short cycle. Basically, there's a continuum of ongoing maintenance. There's must do. There's good to do. And there's nice to do. And right now, they've taken a cleaver to all their spending and it's just bang, down 40% and so, they haven't really fully sorted it out, and to the OpEx too. Now, they got to get back to the must dos and the should dos but they don't have to get back to the nice to dos. So, that's what we want to be close to and help them as they sort out – now, they've insourced things they're going to figure out longer term that they probably should be outsourcing things. It's very fluid.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Steve, I think real quickly, I just add to what Randy said. I mean, I don't think we see or we'll be able to call the recovery this year. Which means, any growth we get will be our backlog plus modest expected growth in 2017. Given where we are in the base this year, we would expect to grow modestly next year, continue to work the cost actions that we need to, and then any long-term recovery or rapid recovery is definitely in our views beyond 2017.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got it. And then one last question just on the Flow & Filtration segment. I think that implies a relatively strong back half of the year. Is that some lumpiness in Food and Beverage? What's kind of the driver there?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. It's just Food and Beverage. I think what we've got is we've got a little bit of customers who have completed some consolidations and they're a little bit more lumpier in their execution of the projects and how their letting the capital flow through. And so, while we still have a very solid backlog, we're seeing a little bit of retiming of that backlog, which is impacting what quarter that ships.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got it. Thanks a lot. Way to go.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan from UBS. Your line is now open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Shannon.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. On Valves & Controls, just in terms of actually hitting the forecast this quarter, that seems regardless of what the actual numbers were, it was on plan, which has been a challenge. John, can you talk about kind of the actions you took while you were there? And do you feel changes you've made to the processes there are going to enable more kind of reliable delivery on forecasts regardless of what those forecasts actually are?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I appreciate that, Shannon. I think what Randy and I are introducing, and what I took into the business and we tried to improve the discipline is there's known ways to think of project execution and working long-cycle businesses and project backlog. You start out with a shippable backlog, and then you get – you look at standard deviation and what's going to happen between being pushed out or pulled in? Customers are always going to retime you. But if you look at that over a period of time, it's always a percentage of the backlog. And what happens is people work deep in the business is they have a lot of hope in their forecast, that all, everything is going to be good and nothing bad is going to happen. And so, when you take a look at it at a high level, we just started to take out those stretches from the expectations and, really, build on the precision of what's going to get shipped out on a weekly basis. And I really think that muscle has now been developed and built within the team. And I'm very proud of what they've accomplished, as Randy mentioned. And, I think, we're going to be much more predictable as we go forward. So, that's what I would say...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'd add in complement to you John. If you will, the algorithms, there was not great coordination between the sales forecast, the operating forecast and the materials forecast and the finance forecast. They were not – as you said, there was assumptions. But I mean, John, really streamlined that, got people talking and we have higher quality forecasts now. And this is the second quarter. I mean, we hit the fourth quarter too.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, we're a long way away from a perfect SIOP (40:51) process. But, I think, we're on our way to getting the expectations aligned and, therefore, not trying to have anticipated production against demand that's not needed.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. No that helps. Thanks.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And then just a little follow-up on the stabilization in Enclosures. You talked about exiting last year down double-digits, and then getting less negative. Are we turning positive yet? Or when do you expect it to turn positive, maybe just a little bit more of the cadence to that daily sale (41:08)?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No. No. We haven't turned positive yet. And so, what we're saying is, if we stay at the level we're at when we start lapping the second half, the comps will look better, But we're not – I would call bouncing along the bottom, maybe.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We think we get back to flattish as we exit Q3 and maybe some slight increase in Q4 Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Howard from Baird. Your line is now open.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Mike.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
So, just continuing that thought process then, when you think about stabilization beyond just the Enclosures piece, are you at the point where you're starting to see a little bit more normal sequential patterns through the year? And when you get towards the back half of the year, is there any fundamental improvement embedded in some of those kind of core industrial markets or is it just following that normal sequential pattern?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Yeah. I think we are getting back to sort of more normal expectations. I think one of the learnings for everybody is that when the Energy business spends $1 trillion a year, and goes down to $600 million a year, the knock-on effect into many other industries is pretty profound. And that's really what's I think is the core driver of a lot of the – what we call Industrial, but sort of the second order effect of the cuts in the Energy business. And so, those are getting sorted out. I mean, people are adjusting to the new reality at this new level. And so, I think we'll see more seasonality. And, as John said, we're hopeful that there'll be an increase in the fourth quarter. We typically would see a bump in the fourth quarter in Industrial so.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
And then on the Aftermarket side, you guys talked about insourcing versus outsourcing before and obviously still competitive out there. But when you think about what the competition is doing, not so much some of the larger valve guys, but some of the smaller valve guys, what are you seeing with them and what are you seeing your customers doing? Is there a migration towards some of the lower cost guys at this point and how are you defending core share?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. We're certainly looking out for that, but I think what's happening right now is dynamic. First of all, we've got the cutback of OpEx because it's a spend. But the downstream right now is where all the cash is being generated on for our customers' customers, and they're running them full out to bring cash into the organization. And so, a lot of the deferrals are still happening because we don't have the planned shutdowns we used to have. As Randy mentioned, you can only do that for so long and then ultimately you got to – you do the shutdown. Now, we haven't assumed any recovery in Q2 in that pattern, and we're thinking that that's more likely a Q3 event.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
And just from that perspective, what do you guys need to see besides time? Is there anything specific or is it just time needs to push on and then these guys can come back to the market again?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, I mean, what they need to do, our customers need to adjust to the fact that this may not recover soon. So, they have to adjust their own operating practices. So, I mean, it's not just the maintenance but the first thing you do when you have downturn like this is before you lay people off, you insource everything. You can't end up bringing maintenance in-house. And then when you start realizing that that's not as efficient as if I have a contractor do it, you end up then going out more aggressively. It's not a mystery. I mean, this is what we are expecting. So, we want to be in a position. That's one of the reasons why we want to focus more in Valves & Controls on the aftermarket value stream is so that we can be in a position to be that provider on valves because with the breadth of our product line, we – and with the service centers we have, we can be more aggressive as they make that next step and they haven't gotten to that next step yet.
Mike P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks for the time.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Scott.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
This is more of a question for John. You guys are looking to do a lot in your footprint rationalization plans over the next several years. I was just wondering if you can kind of give us a little bit more on the metrics, the factories, distribution centers closed, things that are in process and what have you. I know you've said that you feel good on track there, but it's still early and – I was just wondering if you could share some more metrics with us.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, to put that in perspective right now, we have 29 factories in Valves & Controls, and we have announced the closure of maybe two to three, well it is three factories. I think we're focused right now on making sure that we've got good standard work and that we've got good documentation as Lean generally requires you to do, because moving these factories is not very easy. So, I don't think we're going to announce or discuss substantial factory reductions over the next several years. I think where the big opportunity is and where Dennis is focusing is, how do we improve the linearization within a quarter of how we're shipping, how do we reduce the inefficiencies, these are all great tools that, Lean brings that tool to the table. And I think as far as the distribution in the outside service centers, we have 43 independent service centers that aren't part of a current distribution center or a customer's factory. I think the customer is going to help define that for us over the next three to four years because it's moving in-house into their operations is where we see it going because eliminating that brick and mortar in between us and them seems to be where the industry is heading. So, I can't give you specifics, but I think there's opportunities in both of those areas. But I'd say on the factory side, I wouldn't expect very many closures in the next several years. I'd talked about optimization.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Right. Fair enough. My follow-up is about the Valves & Controls split of revenues where you guys are calling that business essentially half aftermarket and MRO, and every valves company has their fair share of standard products. So, it just seems like half of the business coming from the aftermarket just seems like a pretty high number because typically when a standard valve fails, the end users essentially cuts it out and throws it in the garbage. So I'm just kind of wondering, is it possible that there are some CapEx from your customers in your aftermarket?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Look. Yeah. Let me – aftermarket, short answer. It is aftermarket in standard product because you can't tell the difference particularly if it's sold in the U.S. it is heavy distribution. If you've got a standard keystone butterfly valve, and it's sitting in stock, if it's going in to a new installation or replacement, you can't tell the difference. But it's the same selling motion. So, to be precise, we put aftermarket and standard product together in the same selling motion because there's an urgency and an intimacy that you need with the customer in order to win. And we haven't had that clearer focus on it and that will help both the aftermarket, serviced valves and the standard replacement valves. Now when you get to engineered valve, it's closer to a project selling motion. So, we'll try to be more precise.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
That sounds much more specific. Thank you. Would you say the standard valve product which is essentially a cat backs item, is that maybe half of the MRO?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, it isn't always the CapEx, it's OpEx. The only difference between an operating expense dollar and a CapEx expense dollar is how the accounts treat it. And to me, it's money spent, and then different people control it. So you – I don't mean to be flip but the operating expenses to run a refinery, a petrochem plant, they're enormous. And a lot of it looks very much like – particularly in the standard valves side, it looks the same. So, I think a lot of people, including us, were surprised by how much the OpEx spending was impacted given that it was the CapEx that was intended to be cut, but it's a blunt weapon, and we all know all that from our own, when we have to crank down costs, it's cranking down costs. We don't differentiate when there's an urgency about it. And then we get better, right? We say we got to put more into the efficiency of the existing plants and we've already cut as many projects as we can. So – I don't mean to go down to, into the depths here but, that's all I got.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Thank you. I was just wondering, if you wouldn't mind, if I can just tack this one on. Could you tell us at all how April is looking outside of Valves & Controls?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, we don't do that.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I mean, it's all incorporated in our Q2 guide, Scott.
R. Scott Graham - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Fair enough. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Let's start in Water Quality, some very nice margin expansion there. But, Randy, you also mentioned increased growth investments. Can you talk about the kind of investments that you're making there, and perhaps quantify the increased headwind. I know you're always making growth investments, but maybe the increased headwind to margins in the quarter?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We talked a lot about investing in products which we're doing both in Residential Filtration, a lot in Food Service, which is a really attractive business, and in the pool side. But in addition to that, we're making investments on the sales coverage side on our Residential Filtration business. We moved Residential Filtration to Karl Frykman and his Water Quality team about 18 months ago. And what we want to do is we want to replicate what we've done in Pool in the Residential Filtration business. We're the largest maker of product and components for water treatment and water filtration in the world for residential. We are the largest. But we don't have the same kind of customer intimacy that we see that we have in the pool business that has turned into such a sweet business for us. We believe that Residential might have the same potential for us. So what Karl and his team has done is they're replicating the kind of coverage, direct dealer coverage on the other side of distribution in order to drive brand and drive product adoption and get customer intimacy and getting voice of customer back to our product. So, a lot of the investments are actually on the sales side and that's global and we're doing it in the United States. We're doing it in Europe and Canada. Less so, it's a different kind of coverage investment in the emerging markets. But I'm quite excited about the early returns on that. I don't think it's really affected our numbers yet, but it's given us great insight and I'm expecting great things.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And Nathan think about that as somewhere around $10 million to $12 million on an annualized basis.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
That's helpful. Thanks. Second one is on the Enclosures business. You talked about Industrial stabilizing, but there's also a bit with a couple mentions of some price pressure in Enclosures. Is that something you expect to continue as Industrial stabilizes, perhaps the pricing pressure eases, just how you're thinking about that?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. One of the things we're seeing is, we've been more aggressive on the Enclosure side of going back after what we would call modified standard product and there's a little more pricing pressure in that and that's what we're really seeing there. Plus there isn't a lot of commodity inflation, so there's not really a lot of price being passed on on the standard size. So, we're not assuming we're going to bounce back to getting 1 to 2 points of price, but we don't think it's a systemic issue.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hey. Could you just update us, John, on what you're seeing on the price cost side and how we should think about your guys' purchase commitments or hedges and how those weigh out over the course of the year? I guess, Valves & Controls is its own animal so maybe the rest of the portfolio?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, I'll hit Valves first, we said we expected roughly 4 points of price for the year and that includes standard product which is not a lot of price and then margin compression coming from the project side and I would say that that's still the right forecast. I think we hoped that that would be a little bit conservative I think right now, that's playing out to be realistic. On the rest of the portfolio, very, very modest as far as what pricing we could get across the general portfolio, areas of two-step distribution we have normal price increases, we're seeing it. But for the most part, the low inflation on material, which are recognized as material productivity is leading to a more flattish pricing environment globally.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Is that – when is that gap largest just based on the timing of purchases as you see it today?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think you're seeing – in Q1, you see kind of by segment what the prices cause we break it out. And I think we expect that rate of price increases to be the – what we think for the rest of the year. But I think the inflation starts to become a little bit more on the raw material side as we move into Q3 and Q4. We're expecting some modest inflation the back half of the year, which then would lead to what does the pricing cycle look like for 2017.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. And just to shift over to the Food and Bev comments – I don't remember if you guys mentioned this in the script or not, but the push outs there, are those are all getting made up in 2Q or will those filter in as we move through the balance of the year?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Balance of the year.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. All right. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask about the free...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Brian.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Hey, good morning. Just wanted to ask about the free cash flow forecast. Having done about $635 million in 2015, you got the $100 million improvement in the first quarter of this year, and the target is $750 million. Just any thoughts regarding why we wouldn't see more significant year-over-year improvement as we move through the balance of 2016 given you're just – you're talking about these opportunities to further improve working capital as we move through the year.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think the linearity of the cash flow, first of all, great Q1 and I think the linearity looks a lot like last year. The opportunity to do better than $750 million would be incremental working capital opportunities, and right now, although we're making progress, we're not confident enough yet to say that we're going to realize those in 2016. So, it is the opportunity and now we got to get after it and make it a realized benefit in 2016.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Got it. And then could you give an update on the geographic trends that you're seeing in Water Quality. I think it was on the outlook call in December that you talked about the different geographies. You mentioned in Europe, you were seeing some strengths, but that it might be fueled largely by restocking, do you have a better sense for how much restocking was driving that growth, and have you seen any improvement in China? And then also if you could just comment on what you're seeing in North America? Thanks.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll grab it really quickly. I mean, first of all, we did see a recovery in China in Q1. It was nice to see. So, we saw a recapture of our normal sort of double-digit growth rates in the China space. Europe is stable, modest growth, single-digit core growth in Europe. And we had strong shipments in North America in the Water Quality side. So, overall, I think the developed region's doing well in that space as you would expect and then doing pretty well and seeing some recovery in China as we add new distributors, and we work on different distribution channels.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
So, this wasn't just a blip in Europe, a positive blip with restocking you're seeing the continuation of that?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I mean, Water Quality globally is a pretty good market. And it's up more in North America. It's up modest in Europe.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Which is good.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Really great. Yeah.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Eighteen months ago (58:51).
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Barry with Susquehanna. Your line is now open.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Barry.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
So, just kind of a big picture question on the margin outlook, it's staying the same even though you came in ahead on 1Q and raised the outlook for growth in the highest-margin segment. I'd think FX would probably also be maybe a little less of a headwind. Is it that all just the kind of slight tweak to the Tech Solutions outlook, or is there anything else going on there?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. It's pretty much just Tech Solutions. And we feel good about the first quarter, it's kicked off the year well, but we're still pointing at the same commitments we made. Second quarter, we're focused on right now.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. Okay. And then in FFS, just to follow up on some of the questions about the shortfall there, is that delta between the down 2% that you did and the guided 4%, is that all in the Beverage shipments or is there anything else going on in there?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Irrigation was a little worse. I would – I almost going call it like – I think we whiffed that one, I think – before we got the plans finalized, we came out with a 4% organic growth in Q1. If we take a look at 2% for the year, just put that one on me, I don't think we had ever an expectation to deliver 4%, but we apologized and we said it would be up 4%.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, I think we start to think the municipal ramp and all the contribution in the back half of the year. And so, we think we ramp our organic core growth as the year goes along and...
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. Could you actually just shed a little light on what's going on in muni? It does sound like that's an end market that's been building momentum. It sounds like it was pretty good in the quarter.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think the break and fixes are starting to accelerate, and we're starting to see municipalities start to let some of those projects – and obviously not large ones, but we're seeing a market that's starting to grow 3% or 4% on a more sustained basis.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And globally it's still a good market as well.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. And the recovery in the beverage piece in FFS, is that all in the backlog? It's just timing or...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes. Yes, it is.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Actually, they built backlog. We had a good orders quarter. So, there's still – we have a lot of newer technologies that are being applied, but it's just in a sense lumpy in terms of when they get shipped.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. And as those projects come on in Food & Bev, is that mix positive or negative?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's slightly negative. I mean we're putting a project in. We wait for the aftermarket to pick-up on the better margin rate.
Robert Barry - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP:
Got you. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Rose with Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. Thank you for taking my call. Just a quick housekeeping. Can you highlight some of the biggest changes in the accruals for the quarter, and how they stack up against fourth quarter comparisons or back half-of-the-year comparisons?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
What do you mean by accruals?
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Well, are there any compensation accruals or any other accruals that might change the comparisons this year versus last year in Q1 and then in the back half of the year? Just something that we should be watching?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. The only one of note would be the incentive accrual or the compensation accruals in Q1 are generally different this year as we look at the vesting periods of directors and officers and so you can kind of see that if you take a look at a full year of 90 and roughly 30 in Q1. The rest of the quarters looks a lot more like last year from a seasonality standpoint, a little bit of a benefit in Q2.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then last, if I may, were there any particular variances, V&C was spot on but within the different segments, was there anything that stood out from forecast as it relates to labor and materials or productivity within the either different segments?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
One more?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Joe Giordano from Cowen. Your line is open.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You mentioned desal in industrial water reuse in your prepared remarks. And I am trying to remember, I don't think we've talked too much about that on calls in the recent past. So what are you seeing there?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We haven't talked much about it because it's been kind of dead.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Yeah.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I mean, we're a large supplier of subsystems for desalination projects and they, after the financial crisis, they kind of went all soft around the world. And they're getting let loose. We have some in Eastern Europe. We have some in the Middle East. And some on the industrial water reuse side, where everything is distressed, industrials don't vote, so they get curtailed on the water faster than anything and they're the ones that will be the early adopters of water reuse technologies which we have a number of different technologies applicable there. That's what we're talking about. And it's been a focus of ours. We've been trying to get more focus there. (1:04:41)
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Can you maybe scale that for us? Like how big was that at its peak for you? And where is that today, those two, like maybe those two businesses in terms of just overall size?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Probably $100-ish million and it's probably in the $20-ish million in the quarter.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Is that in the quarter or...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. It's probably – yeah, it's roughly just less than $20 million on a quarterly basis and the $100 million is some was annual. So, we're down 20% from peak.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay, okay. And then just last from me. Can you talk about the magnitude of the price pressure on the Aftermarket you've seen in V&C just on that piece of the business?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
On the standard MRO side, it's not significant on a product versus a product basis. We are seeing a mix issue in the sense that the larger markets, North America and Europe, we're down substantially in the quarter and we saw some, the fast growth markets actually pick up on the Aftermarket side and the margins are slightly lower. But on a like-to-like product, roughly, around 1% to 1.5% is all we are seeing on the pricing at the moment.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Thank you.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Steve, thanks.
Operator:
You're welcome. And ladies and gentlemen, a replay of this conference call will be available within two hours. If you wish to listen to the replay, please dial 1 855 859 2056 and enter the conference ID 55576145. For international callers please dial 404 537 3406. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Jordan, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Lucas, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy:
Thanks, Jordan, and welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. We're glad you can join us today. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. With me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter 2015 performance, as well as our first quarter and full year 2016 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which could be found in the Investor section of Pentair's website. We will reference these sides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and get back in the queue for further questions in order to ensure everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the executive summary on page four. There's no doubt that 2015 was a challenging year for Pentair and most other industrial companies. But we were encouraged that our fourth quarter results met our expectations operationally. Overall, earnings came in higher than forecast due to a better ongoing tax rate. And our ability to forecast sales demonstrates that the quarter-to-quarter volatility in some of our served markets may finally be showing signs of stabilizing. While our businesses serving the Energy and Industrial markets will likely face continued challenges in 2016, the two bright spots in 2015, Food & Beverages and Residential & Commercial, appear to still have more upside. In addition, we've finally seen signs of stabilizations and some green shoots of growth within our smallest vertical, Infrastructure. We understand why Valves & Controls has been the focus of many of our investors as our efforts to right-size the business in the face of this significant energy – in the significant energy industry reset remains a big priority. While we're now seeing sales and orders in Valves & Controls meet our forecast for the second consecutive quarter, gross margins remain under pressure due to project pricing and mix. Our acquisition of ERICO, completed at the end of the third quarter, is delivering what we expected and the integration is well underway. Cash flow, which has historically been a hallmark for Pentair, did come in slightly short of our forecast as we had foreshadowed on our outlook call last December. This is due exclusively to working capital timing and we're fully committed to demonstrating our cash flow prowess in 2016, expecting greater than 100% adjusted net income conversion as we double down on working capital, following the dramatic top line challenges faced in 2015, principally within Valves & Controls. We're maintaining our 2016 full year adjusted EPS guidance of $4.05 per share to $4.25 per share. We made good progress on further reducing the tax rate as demonstrated in the fourth quarter. While this improved tax rate will add just under a dime compared to our prior forecast, we've lowered our Valves & Controls forecast by a similar amount given the degree of margin compression the business has faced due to project pricing and uncertainty around the timing of the recovery in the short-cycle business, which slowed in 2015. Overall, we're pleased to have met our fourth quarter expectations and our 2016 outlook remains intact. Now let's turn to slide five for discussion of our Q4 2015 results. Fourth quarter core sales declined 4%, which was a modest improvement from the 5% decline in the third quarter. Valves & Controls was slightly better than our sales forecast, and the rate of decline is stabilized in the mid-teens. Water Quality Systems delivered strong 7% core growth. Technical Solutions' core sales were flat and Flow & Filtration Solutions showed further signs of stabilization on the top line. Overall, FX remained a headwind in the quarter, and ERICO contributed positively and in line with our commitments. Segment income declined 7% and margins were down 90 basis points to 15.9%. As expected, Valves & Controls was the major contributor to the margin contraction, while Water Quality Systems had a very strong margin quarter. Flow & Filtration Solutions had another quarter of margin expansion, which is why we believe this segment is well positioned for further gains in 2016. Due to end-of-the-year tax adjustments, the tax rate in the quarter was favorable and our full year rate finished just north of 21%. We believe this is an ongoing rate and expect further improvements to the tax rate in 2016. Free cash flow ended the year at $643 million, which was short of our $700 million forecast. As mentioned, free cash flow has been impacted by working capital timing due to the top-line softness we've experienced so quickly, but we expect the free cash flow to return to greater than 100% of adjusted net income in 2016. Now, let's turn to slide six to discuss Pentair's Q4 2015 performance elements. Our performance by vertical was similar to the third quarter with solid gains in Residential & Commercial and Food & Beverage being offset by ongoing pressures in both Energy and Industrial. Encouragingly, infrastructure was flat in the quarter and continued to show signs of stabilization and potential return to growth in 2016. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, we had another solid quarter of productivity, and with price, they more than offset inflation. Our cost-out actions in Valves & Controls continued through 2015, and we still expect over $135 million in savings to read out in 2016. Negative mix impacted both Valves & Controls and Technical Solutions. But our other two segments, Flow & Filtration Solutions and Water Quality Systems, delivered improved margins. Now let's turn to slide seven for a review of Valves & Controls. For the fourth quarter, Valves & Controls' core sales declined 15% which was a point better than our forecast, an improvement from the 18% core decline experienced in the third quarter. FX remained a considerable headwind at 7%. Backlog was down 4% which includes the negative FX translation. Core orders declined 15% which is consistent with the double-digit rate of decline the business experienced throughout the year. Core sales declined in three of the four sub-verticals served by Valves & Controls as mining showed growth in the quarter on the result of one project shipping. We continue to see weakness in our short-cycle business as many of our customers have cut their operational budgets in addition to their capital budgets including scaling back maintenance turnarounds. We do not expect this trend to reverse in the first quarter, but we remain optimistic that customers will begin spending more in maintenance as 2006 (sic) [2016] (7:31) progresses. As we indicated last quarter, we've seen a trend of customers delaying shipment, but there are few order cancelations at the current time. The right half of the page shows fourth quarter Valves & Controls segment income and margins. While we continue to drive productivity, which offset inflation, it was not nearly enough to overcome the dramatic top-line drop experienced during the quarter and the year. We've aggressively been rightsizing the cost structure, but it does take time for the benefits from those actions to read out. In addition, we've seen higher-than-normal margin compression due to pricing pressure within the project business. Mix has also been a headwind to margins as the higher-margin short-cycle business has remained under pressure. Now let's turn to slide eight for a look at the Valves & Controls backlog. As you can see on slide eight, Valves & Controls' backlog is broken down into four key sub-verticals, three of which fall into our Energy vertical, oil & gas, power, and mining. And one, in our Industrial vertical, which is the process business. Orders declined in all four of our sub-verticals, with oil & gas the only business to not decline double-digits. As 2015 progressed, we saw customers continue to curtail spending as they assessed their long-term plans and adjusted to the new reality of lower oil prices. Many expected oil and gas to feel the pressure, but delays in project timing have extended to other areas like LNG and petrochem. As stated previously, it has not just been projects that have been delayed or cut. It's clear the customers have been delaying maintenance spending as well. It's still too early to call a bottom. We're encouraged at orders and (9:06) forecast for the second consecutive quarter. It's uncertain when the short-cycle business will return, but maintenance cannot be deferred forever, and we're watching for some signs of improvement beginning in the second quarter this year. Now, let's move to slide nine to discuss the Q4 performance of Flow & Filtration Solutions. Flow & Filtration Solutions had an 8% top-line decline with core sales down 2% and foreign exchange translation, a 6% headwind. The fourth quarter showed signs of stabilization for this segment, and we continue to expect the business to return to growth in 2016. We did see all four serve verticals contract in the quarter. Food & Beverage was down as growth in our Beverage business was not enough to offset the ongoing headwinds within agriculture. We would note that our sales decline in our agriculture-related businesses was not as bad as the overall industry. Residential & Commercial was down due to product line exits we made to better position the business longer term. While Infrastructure overall was down, this was the result of a tough comparison last year when we had a large filtration project shift. We were encouraged to see further improvement in the trends within our North American municipal pump business. Segment income was down modestly, but margins expanded 40 basis points to 11.3%. This marks the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin expansion and believe it is a positive sign that the actions taken in 2015 positioned the segment for further gains in 2016 and beyond. Now let's move to slide 10 for a look at Water Quality Systems. We believe that the slower top-line growth seen in the third quarter was an anomaly and the fourth quarter growth performance was validation that Water Quality Systems remains on a positive track. During the quarter, sales grew 4% which consisted of 7% core sales growth offset by a 3% FX headwind. Both Residential & Commercial and Food & Beverage grew at high-single-digit rates in the quarter. Our aquatics business led the way once again in pre-buy activity as a good foretoken that 2016 should be another good year for aquatics. Our water purification business saw favorable growth in Europe but China remained weak as distributors exhibited caution in their order patterns. Food service had another solid quarter and saw growth return in China after a pause in the third quarter. Segment income grew 30% and margins expanded an impressive 450 basis points to 22.3%. This dramatic improvement was a combination of strong productivity execution and positive mix on top of an easier comparison against last year's fourth quarter results. Water Quality Systems has proven to be a consistently high performer, and we remain committed to getting all of our businesses to the same level of performance. Now let's move to slide 11 for a look at how Technical Solutions performed in Q4. Technical Solutions reported 23% growth for the quarter, which consisted of flat core sales, a 6% headwind from FX, and a 29% positive contribution from ERICO. Industrial sales were down 2% overall as we saw further caution exercised by North American electrical distributors, offset partially by our ,industrial heat tracing business. Energy was down 3% after growth the past few quarters, as a couple of larger heat tracing projects began to wind down. Infrastructure saw modest 2% growth following tough year-over-year comparison for the past two quarters. Residential & Commercial showed strong 7% core growth in the quarter, and ERICO, which generates a large portion of its sales from commercial, tracked with our expectations. Segment income grew 17%, while operating margins contracted 130 basis points to a still-strong 22.6%. Principal factor contributing to the margin performance in the fourth quarter was more project shipments than product shipments within industrial heat tracing, and the margin differential between them created a negative mix impact. ERICO met our income expectations, including synergies. While 2016 will see headwinds with the absence of two energy projects and expected first half softness continuing in the short-cycle industrial business, we remain focused on driving productivity and have taken further cost actions to deliver in this typically high-performing segment. Let's now turn to slide 12 for a look at our full year Pentair results. For the full year 2015, our core sales declined 4%, as performance in Water Quality Systems and Technical Solutions was not enough to offset significant challenges faced by Valves & Controls served markets. Segment income declined 12%, and margins contracted 60 basis points to 15.5%. Our tax rate ended the year at just over 21%, which was better than the 23% we projected at the beginning of the year. We believe this improved tax rate is sustainable, and would expect further improvement in reducing the tax rate in 2016. We're not pleased with our free cash flow performance of $643 million, which represented only 90% of adjusted net income, but we know this is due fully to working capital timing, and remain committed to correct it in 2016. Overall, 2015 was a challenging year where we saw two of our segments deliver strong performance, one segment stabilize, and we're addressing the reality of the other segment. Now let's turn to slide 13, to the 2016 outlook assumptions. Before I turn the call over to John to provide additional insight on Valves & Controls and to discuss our first quarter and 2016 outlook, I wanted to update you on what has changed since we issued our initial 2016 outlook in mid-December. As you can see on this slide, the majority of our key assumptions remain unchanged. We continue to expect solid performance from our businesses serving Residential & Commercial and Food & Beverage. We've seen signs of stabilization within Infrastructure. Industrial is expected to continue to have a challenging first half of the year, but comparisons become less difficult in the second half, and we're encouraged that distributors may begin ordering once again in the back half of the year. Foreign exchange has been tracking to where we plan. We all know that this can change at any time. The one area that has worsened is Energy, particularly the further decline seen in the price of oil. We've seen several major energy companies announce capital expenditure plans that call for additional 20%-plus cuts following similar reductions in 2015. Further, the delays in the short-cycle business give us pause. Don't expect any signs of improvement in the first quarter, and we'll watch the second quarter trends closely to see if customers stop deferring their maintenance spending. The other bright spot we have is the improvement in our tax rate. This added structural improvement provides an offset to the further weakening in Energy and gives us increased confidence in maintaining our full year guidance. With that, I'll turn the call over to John.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 14, titled V&C update. We thought it would be helpful to provide an update on our Valves & Controls business and the further deteriorating conditions in its space since issuing our initial 2006 (sic) [2016] (16:18) guidance last December. We continue to see pressure on incoming orders, and now expect orders to be down as much as 5% for the full year of 2016. The well-publicized decline in oil prices is just one of the factors that leads us to remain cautious about the timing of order stabilization. But even more, we are watching the short-cycle business for signs that customers will begin to accelerate maintenance spending. As a result, we have modestly lowered our full year revenue forecast for 2016. We continue to see pricing pressure on the project side of the business, and this shows up as margin compression. While we have aggressively implemented cost-out actions, we expect industry uncertainty to persist, and we plan to remove additional cost from the business. When forecasting where we see sales and orders, coupled with further anticipated margin compression, we now are forecasting return on sales in Valves & Controls to be 100 basis points lower than our original forecast, at 10.5%. Please turn to slide number 15, labeled Non-Cash Goodwill Impairment. We performed step one of our goodwill impairment analysis as required by the accounting rules, and concluded that the fair value of Valves & Controls is below its carrying value. The carrying value was determined when we completed the Flow Control merger in 2012, when oil was over $100 that year. Since 2012, the energy industry has reset significantly, and uncertainty remains around the timing of any recovery. We are finalizing the analysis, but we currently estimate there'll be a non-cash impairment charge in the range of $400 million to $600 million, to be recorded at the time that our 10-K is published. Please turn to slide number 16, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Our balance sheet changed significantly with the closing of the ERICO acquisition. We added the – ended the year with $4.6 billion of net debt inclusive of cash on hand. While our balance sheet leverage at 3.75 times is higher than our targeted 2.5 times leverage ratio, we expect to bring that leverage ratio to around 3.3 times by the end of 2016. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 9.9% as our operating income came under pressure with the top-line challenges experienced within our Valves & Controls segment. Although free cash flow ended the year at roughly 90% of adjusted net income, this was due exclusively to working capital timing and we expect a 100% conversion rate in 2016. Please turn to slide number 17 labeled Q1 2016 Pentair Outlook. For the first quarter, we expect core sale to be up a modest 1% and total sales to grow 7% inclusive of FX headwinds in the ERICO acquisition. On a core sales basis, we expect Valves & Controls to be down roughly 7% which is a slower rate of decline than we experienced throughout 2015. Flow & Filtration Systems (sic) [Solutions'] (19:09) core sales are expected to be up 4% on an easier year-over-year comparison and project shipment timing. Water Quality Systems' core sales are anticipated to increase approximately 5% on continued strength in aquatics. Finally, Technical Solutions' core sales are expected to be up 4% as industrial heat tracing and electronics help to offset ongoing sluggishness and closures. We have not made any changes to our ERICO forecast or expectations our synergies. We're expecting segment income to decrease modestly and return on sales to contract 110 basis points. Below the operating line, we expect an improved tax rate of around 20.5%, net interest and other around $33 million, and the share count around 183 million. Our first quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $0.70 to $0.72, which is roughly a 7% year-over-year decline. We expect historically typical free cash flow usage in the first quarter, but turning positive as the year progresses as we continue to focus on improving our working capital performance. Please turn to slide number 18 labeled Full Year 2016 Pentair Outlook. We are maintaining our full year adjusted EPS outlook of $4.05 to $4.25, although the components have changed some from our initial outlook provided in December. For the full year, we expect core sales to decline approximately 2%. Valves & Controls' core sales are now anticipated to be down 8%, which is 3 points worse than our original forecast, as I highlighted few slides ago. We now expect Flow & Filtration core sales to be up modestly for the full year. Water Quality Systems' core sales are anticipated to grow approximately 4%, and Technical Solutions' core sales are expected to decline 4% for the full year. We expect segment income to be up 9% and return on sales to expand 100 basis points to 16.5% with three of our four segments delivering full year margin expansion. We expect overall corporate costs to be approximately $90 million; net interest and other to be around $135 million; our full year tax rate to be around 20.5%, and the share count for the full year to be around 183 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to be up 5% at the midpoint of the range. Finally, we expect a strong year of free cash flow, expected to be approximately 100% of adjusted net income with our working capital opportunities providing potential upside. Jordan, can you please open the line for questions? Thank you.
Operator:
Our first question comes from Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I'm sure there's going to be plenty of Valves & Controls questions but I just wanted to switch to the other segments. And you've raised organic outlook by about 1 point across the board and you called out Infrastructure looks a bit better in 2016 then perhaps back in December. So maybe just comment on what you're seeing in Infrastructure that makes you feel more confident. And perhaps within TS, given the midstream CapEx outlooks getting cut, what gives you confidence that that would be better than back in December?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, infrastructure is looking better but also aquatics is looking better. The Water Quality Systems, aquatics is the pool business and it exited the year with a really good tailwind. But in terms of Infrastructure, we've seen the order rate pick up and our backlog pick up in both pumps and in filtration. So it's been a while building and we expect that to actually lift growth for mostly Flow & Fluid (sic) [Filtration] (23:00) Solutions next year.
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(23:05)
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. And then within TS, Randy what gives you more confidence there?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(23:14) question.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Nigel, what gives us a little more confidence in Technical Solutions...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh, Technical Solutions.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We' were waiting to see where ended the year with the backlog in the industrial heat tracing solutions business primarily around the projects. And it ended stronger, and therefore, the shippable backlog heading into 2016 was slightly higher and that was the (23:31).
Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. I see. Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC. Your line is open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, wanted to touch on Valves & Controls first and maybe you can update us on what the 2016 customer CapEx decline assumptions that you're making. We know with since December oil has worsened and you cited customers' CapEx plan at 20% plus down. But how are you thinking broadly if you divide that up between upstream, midstream, downstream?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, I'd say first and foremost, I don't think we see a lot of upstream activity and a lot of these projects were in the process of being cut throughout the year, Deane. So, we look at front log which is the things prior to coming into the quote funnel. So, what are the opportunities we might be quoting in any given year? And that front log this year is significantly low as it relates to upstream activity. When we get into midstream, midstream still has a fair amount of the front log activity and we are still quoting a significant amount of midstream activity. And then the downstream business, we would've expected that to be a productivity-based investment. And we've seen delays in the quoting activity there. So, we've got an order outlook next year as we suggested that's down further than what we anticipated. And then we expect the conversion ratio of how many of those orders that we convert within the year to be down further. And hence, that's why we've taken down the Valves & Controls forecast even further.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah. What I'm actually looking for is your broad market assumption about how much will your customer CapEx declines be in 2016? So, we've seen estimates as high as down 35% in the upstream side. So, I just wanted to know, what assumptions are you making for your customers on their CapEx plans for 2016?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. If I could – Deane, we haven't in the past shown a really good relationship between the CapEx numbers of the – the big CapEx numbers and then what really happens to our orders numbers. We've had – obviously, we've gotten better at forecasting our sales. What we focus on is what John called that front log. We've seen a lot of projects that were being thought of that are no longer in that front log, or things that we're chasing. So, we're focusing on what's in our backlog and what we can ship and what is in that – what real projects are in that front log, and what's our probability of getting them. And that's how we come to it.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. That's fair. And then, just on the pricing side, you called out pricing pressures on projects. We've seen that now for a year and half. Maybe you can give us some sense of how much pricing is down, size that. And then, we've started to see pricing pressure on the short cycle. Look, everyone's seeing this maintenance deferral. We're seeing that sector-wide, but give us a sense of what that's impacting on pricing on short cycle as well.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, the short-cycle pricing, Deane, is called out on our Valves & Controls walk because we list prices part number to part number and, therefore, the standard product is a light product. And so, you get a sense of where that price is. And right now, that's roughly around 1% today. We're anticipating that to get a little bit tougher as we head into 2016. The majority of what we call margin pressure is around the project side and the fact that the projects are coming through at a slightly lower margin. But we're also experiencing a mix differential between less standard product on the short cycle and more of the projects coming out of the backlog, and that caught us by surprise in Q4, especially around December, and we've loaded in those expectations continuing into Q1 and ramping a little bit better as we get the cost benefits reading out in Q2, Q3 and Q4 from our efforts.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Got it. And just last question for me. On the free cash flow, you talked about this in December, so it's not a surprise that you came up short on the 2015 target. But just to clarify, was there any extension of payment terms for customers at year-end? We saw this in some of the other flow names that, to help customers at year-end. Was that a factor in this? And then real specifically, when do you expect to recoup those receivables?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
The short answer is no to the first question, Deane. It's not something that we've done or needed to do. And as we think about recovering this year, we felt like we had realized the impact of the working capital builds right when I took over in the interim role and we've been after reducing those inventory levels and therefore getting after those receivable collections. So, we're very focused on getting the cash in here in Q1 and Q2. And we feel like we're going to make very good progress.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's good to hear. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That chart that you guys gave, I think slide number 10 from your Investor Day where you talked about Valves & Controls' backlog and orders. First of all, the scheduled backlog of $990 million, is that still intact or has there been some movement in that? And also, how do I reconcile the orders down 8% in that slide and the orders of flat to down 5%? Is that just short-cycle orders you're talking about?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, real quickly, we're down about $40 million to $50 million on the starting backlog position, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And that would represent movements out of 2016 into 2017, and that's what we know of today.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
The orders on the slides are still the same number. I apologize. One's core and one's inclusive of FX so roughly the same.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And what we're having a little bit of change to our forecast on is we usually convert about half of those orders within a year, but we're expecting the orders to be a little bit more back-end loaded and therefore, we won't be getting as many of the orders shipped in 2016 as we originally anticipated.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then the start to the year in Valves & Controls, this 6.5% margin, I don't recall it being that seasonal historically. Is there something, I guess, just it's a function of the timing of the cost-saves ramping throughout the course of the year. Anything unusual here in the first quarter to have that – and that's kind of an unusually low-margin rate.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think there's three things, Steve. One is we have an unusually low shipment number of 385, and we haven't been below 400 in this business in some time, and that reflects the shippable backlog. But it also reflects the number two issue which is we're expecting the standard product to be slow again in Q1 as we wait for our customers to get their expense budgets aligned and decide where they're going to spend the expense and maintenance dollars, so we have a low mix ratio related to that and also a lower expectation. And then the third element is exactly what you said. We've recognized about $11 million to $12 million on a quarterly basis with a cost takeout of $150 million and that ramps throughout the year. And the first quarter reflects what we have to do with the inventory accounting and putting that into the inventory and then shipping the old inventory first, before we can recognize the benefits. So, those are the three unusual aspects to Q1.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. One last quick one. You mentioned weakness in LNG. I know it's kind of a slow-moving train here over the course of the next couple years, and should roll down dramatically toward the end of the decade. I guess, are you surprised at how early you're seeing some weakness there? Is that just – are they cancelling some projects? Is there a destocking going on there? I know that some of the compression orders at others have been very, very weak on that front. I'm just trying to kind of understand the timing, because...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(31:43)
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. Just on the timing of the LNG stuff. What you're seeing there.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Our view is ultimately, LNG is going to play a bigger role in the energy mix worldwide and the U.S. will be, and should be, a net exporter. There were a lot of projects in pre-feed, in planning. They've all been pretty much put on the shelves, and some of the other ones that actually were in design have been slowed down. So that was the reference that we're talking about. Because what we're really looking at, things we were expecting to be happening in the near term versus – they may still happen, but they may be two or three years out now instead of 2016, 2017.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think we were hinting at Analyst Day that, although people were bullish about that activity because of low feedstocks, you got to look at global demand. And the global demand just isn't there at the rate that would support all of those projects coming through. So, I guess to answer your question, are we surprised in this whole energy reset aspect? No, we're not surprised.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
No, no. I get that. I'm just trying to get an idea. I think LNG is going to be kind of a debacle at some point in the next couple years. But I guess the timing is kind of hard to nail down, just because of how big these projects are and the multi-year nature of them. So I'm just more of a timing question than anything else. Thanks, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Winoker with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks and good morning, all.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey Steve.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Morning.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey, can you maybe comment on Resi & Commercial construction a little bit further? It sounded like you're still bullish here, but maybe a little more of what you're seeing out there and the kind of rate of deceleration, or a finer point on what actual growth do you expect in that vertical this year?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, this year, we're expecting mid-single digits in the U.S. And actually, we've seen some life in Europe as well. We actually saw some growth in the fourth quarter in Water Quality, and a little bit in the aquatics business – excuse me, in the water purification part of Water Quality, both of those both being Water Quality Systems. So, stronger Europe than last year and continuing strength in the U.S. Multi-family and then continuing, as home prices increase, the pool business is back. And the innovation and the switch to energy-saving products and more sustainable products are still – that conversion is still happening ,and we're the leader in that. So, all of the things that's been working for us in aquatics are still working.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Do you think there's upside to the $0.40 number from ERICO then?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You know what? I want to get that $0.40 number, and then we'll talk. But I was pleased with the fourth quarter, and the order rate, the execution rate. And there's some clear sales synergies that we weren't counting on, that are being worked, that I'm hopeful we'll see read out, even this year.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And, Steve, I would just add on that we're really impressed with the talent that we got with ERICO. It's a great sales and marketing capability, and really excited about the opportunities across the channels that their selling team and our selling team combined can bring to bear.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And just one more comment on, or question on impairment, the non-cash goodwill. The $400 million to $600 million impairment, what's your sense that this is kind of the last impairment that we'll see here?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think the goal of any impairment is that it should be the last that you see.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yeah. But I guess, when you were quantifying this in the first level, were you taking a look at – were you assuming that the energy headwinds would sort of tail off and come back by 2017? Is that kind of embedded in the valuation?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No. If that were the case, there wouldn't be one.
Steven Eric Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. All right. Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So maybe going back to Steve's question earlier around the V&C margin ramp post 1Q. It looks like you guys stepped up your cost-outs to $150 million. Should we be thinking about the benefits coming through in a linear fashion, starting in 2Q? Or is there a ramp as the year progresses?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
There's a ramp when we – as we progress. I mean, we hit a full annual rate right around Q3. And it really is more about the manufacturing cost-out having to work its way through the inventory side. The benefits on the selling and marketing and the benefits on the G&A are linear, and we've got most of those behind us. And so those are going to be experienced in Q1, Q2 and Q3 and Q4 pretty evenly. And the manufacturing side has to work its way through the inventory, and we have to move the old inventory out first. And we don't have the quickest inventory turns in this business, so that's why it takes till the end of Q2 to really get on a full run rate for Q3 and Q4.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We also believe the mix between short cycle and projects – short cycle, and then aftermarket and projects, is going to improve.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Got it. And maybe – and Randy, if for some reason it doesn't improve, and especially in V&C, if the orders turn out to be worse than flat to down 5%, are there other areas within the cost structure that you guys can continue to take cost-outs? Or are we getting closer to the maximum amount that you could actually take out before you start to impact any service levels?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I never like to say never, but I think we'd have to think differently about – I mean, the team there has done a heroic job of adjusting the cost structure to one of the most precipitous drops in sales that I've ever seen. And they're executing well. We're going to have to think about it more creatively if we need to do anything else in terms of costs. I mean, it's just conjecture at this point.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think as a forecast that John showed you is one – and I understand, first quarter is lower than was expected. But it really is that mix and it's the cost readout in the overall volume level, as John said.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
There hasn't been a shipment volume below $400 million in our records.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah. We didn't have it in our numbers either. And maybe one broader question on just Valves & Controls, and as you kind of think about the portfolio longer term. Clearly, when you bought this asset back in 2012, it turned out to be a lot more cyclical than you guys initially anticipated. How do you guys think about the long-term opportunity for Valves & Controls within this portfolio? And is there an opportunity to maybe think about whether Valves & Controls should actually even be part of the broader portfolio?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
It may be hard for people to believe but we still believe this Valves & Controls business is a high-quality business with good people, and a lot of the product lines are real crown jewels. Not all of them, but a lot of them are. Right now, it certainly is a boat anchor to the rest of the business which is rising. And so, we want to correct that. And we wanted this diversity, this exposure to energy. I would say this is much more than just a cyclical turn. There hasn't been anything as deep as this since the 1980s. And so, I think it's too early to conjecture.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think either way, I mean what Randy's asked me to do is think about this business being much more – how do we think about it as more predictable, consistent earnings stream, meaning a lot less project dependent and a lot more aftermarket installed-base dependent. And then, making sure we understand what our customers value of what we sell and what they don't value of what we sell. And then, thinking about the fact that when you lose this amount of revenue, what's more important is your income and your margin dollars as you think forward. So, either way, we've got to make this a really good business, and I think we have the opportunity to take what Randy's direction is and have it contribute value in the future.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Shannon.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. In terms of this watching the short cycle in Valves & Controls and the maintenance spending, there's been the view from you guys and others that you can't defer maintenance forever and this should come back. But we're probably a few quarters past where a lot of people thought it would have started to come back already. So, do you have any more visibility into, could this really continue to get pushed? Are people finding other ways to actually operate without doing the typical maintenance just because – go ahead.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We have real examples of people servicing a valve instead of what they would have replaced before. In-sourcing service to keep their people busy, if they have them, versus where they would have usually contracted it. That sorts itself out. It laps itself. But we saw it was worse in the second half than the first half, and it was worse in the fourth quarter than the average of the second half. And that can't continue. These are a lot – these are mission critical products that are part of processes that are precision and can be – well, by law, they have to be serviced. And so, they can't do it forever. I mean, right now, as I think you know, crack spreads have been great. So, the longer you can run a refinery, the better. But ultimately, you have to maintain them. So, that's the other thing, those two things. One is a shift to lower-cost ways of servicing and then there's the fact that if they can run them a little bit harder when the crack spreads are high, they make money on the refining side.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then similar question on the Industrial side. As you look at Hoffman, anything changing there on the margin? Do you think we've worked our way through any more of the destocking dynamic or just general malaise? Anything in the market there that you think things changing?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Our assumption for the first quarter and the first half is that it's going to be like it was in the fourth quarter. And in terms, if you just look at the stocking in North America distribution, in the fourth quarter, it was down. I think the whole uncertainty around CapEx is distributors always freeze a little bit more. And so, I think we aren't seeing anything for this first half. It's different than the fourth quarter, but the fourth quarter wasn't good.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Robert Baird. Your line is open.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hello, Mike.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Mike?
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy:
Mike?
Operator:
Mike, your line is open.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Mike?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I guess he ...
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy:
I guess we'll go to the next one.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, go to the next one.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, Randy, John, Jim.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy:
Hey, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
If I could just look at the mix issue that you're talking about, Randy, I understand that short-cycle orders or probably short-cycle revenues drop off before project revenues do, but I'm (44:34) that eventually, project revenues will decline more than the short-cycle revenues, and you will actually flip that mix from being a headwind to a tailwind. Can you talk about how that progresses through the year or into next year and what kind of impact you'd expect that to have on margins as we progress through that mix shift?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. You got to look at it business by business. In Valves & Controls, actually, the short cycle held up much better than projects. And it was really in the fourth quarter where the decline was about the same. So, we would expect that to – we don't think it gets better in the first quarter. That's why I was saying that we're watching to see whether there's improvements and we're certainly taking actions to help improve that in Valves & Controls. In the case of Technical Solutions where we have the industrial heat trace projects, which a lot of them are not oil and gas related. There are other industries. And the backlog is good there. There is the Hoffman business being down versus those projects. That gets better in the second half because, just by comparison. Because Hoffman was down in the second half and we don't think it's – as we get to lapping that, we don't think we'll see further down. So, there should be a mix improvement in Technical Solutions in the second half.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
But Nathan, I think you're right long-term, is that as you work the backlog off and you work the large projects off, those do have a lower margin and mix overall. Over time, should be a mix benefit. Now that being said, as Randy was just saying, we ship about $900 million of short-cycle. So, it would take a lot of incremental short-cycle sales to make up for the project sales that are declining. So – and we've got to fill the factories as well, as you know, and work our way through this, so. I think it's a short-term issue on the mix challenges and I think the business will sort its way out. And I think there's still productivity opportunities and I think it's into 2017 before we see that turning favorable.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Is it possible to quantify what the positive mix impact will be or what the negative one has been thus far?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, we did give a hint that the negative one so far, which is total standard margin, has come down about 600 basis points over the last two years.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And you did make a positive comment on the North American municipal pump business. Can you give me some more color on what that's up, how it's progressing, what your expectations are for 2016 and beyond?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I did make – I think I may have a positive comment about that. No, the order rate has picked up and so that's gone into the backlog. So, we're expecting improvement. We saw improvement in the fourth quarter. And after – it was down in the first half, flat in the third quarter, up in the fourth quarter. The backlog is good. I think as governments healed a little bit with tax revenue, they were able to get back to spending.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for the help.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is open.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Just quickly back to the ramp in V&C margins. What do you think the exit rate for margins would be if you get this short cycle normalizing and all the cost savings in?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Jeff, hi. Help me with that question one more time. The exit rate. What do you mean by that?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Exit rate for (48:26).
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Exit rate in 2016, where do you think the margin's going to exit.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, I mean, I think we're looking at a full year rate of around 10.5%. I think we'd be closer to 15% on an exit rate.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, John, any update on a new Valves & Controls leader and when that would be wrapped up?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We will announce it when we're done. We're finding – we're looking for the right leader. John's doing a good job right now.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
But we are actively still working through it.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And we're looking for the right fit and the right type of individual to lean into this type of situation and lead with positive energy and get us to where we need to be.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Konigsberg with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Brian.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Just coming back to the free cash flow. So, with the working capital disruption you mentioned in 2015, I would've suspected you would've had some early collections in 2016. So, why – I'm making the assumption that that's not coming through in the first quarter, and maybe just extend on that. Why wouldn't the full year be better than 100%?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We certainly will attempt to do that. And the first quarter is always a negative quarter for us because we pay taxes, we pay bonuses, we're building working capital in the businesses that didn't do a bad job in working capital which is the water businesses and as getting ready for their seasonal highs in the second and third quarter. So, that's why.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
But would the working capital that was pushed, are you expecting that in the first quarter or is that (50:29) sometime later in the year?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I mean, Brian, if you're asking will the Q1 usage be better than the Q1 usage last year, the answer is yes. We believe it will be better.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah. Okay.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
But our seasonality is we do use cash in Q1 and we start to deliver significant cash in Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. Okay. And then, just the commentary about maintenance starting to improve, why – I mean, are you confident that this is not more of a secular change about in-sourcing or internalizing some of that maintenance? Do you just provide a superior economical offering, where that's probably only temporary, where your customers are able to do it themselves but maybe, over the long-term, it's not worthwhile for them to do it? Why are you confident...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, part of it is we'll...
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We'll start lapping the declines and it'll be flat year-over-year, number one. Number two, ultimately, when they really want to adjust costs, they should outsource it. And so, right now, this is in major industry changes. And before, you'll see people in-source work to bridge a soft spot, if you will, and then, when they realize that there's a structural change, they start looking at their cost structure. Look at BP's announcement, for instance. And then, when they don't have the people, they have to go outside the (51:58).
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
But, Brian, just to clarify, we did not say it's improving in Q1. Matter of fact, we said it is not improving in Q1.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think he meant...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah, maintenance. Yeah.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
In the future.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And in the future, we do believe it gets better than the current outlook. I think it's still not robust.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
If I could just sneak one last in, I think you also mentioned that petchem actually was a bit weaker than you thought it would be. I guess the project work on that front still seems to be pretty decent. But you did experience delays and some weakness there?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. It's decent, but not as decent as it was expected to be. And there's even delays there, so. And you can just imagine, if you're a company that is integrated.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Right.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oil, gas, petrochem.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Got it. Thank you.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Buckingham Research. Your line is open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Just from a high-level perspective, and I want to make sure I'm understanding this correctly. So, maybe versus mid-December and, John, I think you put up a slide about normal EPS seasonality. And that would have read out to something in more like the high $0.70s versus the low $0.70s for the first quarter. And, I guess, if I'm understanding this right, a lot of the issues in Valves & Controls just come from being kind of below threshold in the first quarter on shipments. But, I guess I'm not really seeing a lot of the incremental caution that you're talking about, whether it be from price or from delayed maintenance spending readout. Is that the right way to think about it, or are those happening and then just some of these pockets of surprise growth versus a month ago in the other segments are offsetting that? I guess, if you were just to zoom out and look at it from the highest level.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, let me go back to that seasonality. I agree that we put that up. I think we have two elements that I will draw attention to. One is, our corporate costs are going to be significantly higher in Q1 than the rest of the year. That's related to vesting schedules of options in restricted stock, directors, officers, chairmen, as well as just general corporate spending. And that's about $0.04, Josh, to that level. And that is different this year than it has been in prior years. The other element is that we feel that the shippable backlog and ability to do better than the shippable backlog in Q1 in Valves & Controls is at its weakest opportunity in Q1. And those are the only two things that we're reflecting differently than the normal seasonality schedule that we shared with you.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess, just as a follow-up from an earlier question on midstream as it pertains to, I guess, both Valves & Controls and Technical Solutions, I kind of lost the answer somewhere in there between the quote log and shippable backlog and what your customers are seeing and how those all interplay. But is your expectation that that market is okay this year? And how should we think about that from a timing schedule into 2017 or beyond, I guess, just given some of those big cuts that we've seen at some of your customers?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think it all reflects it, if you think about the front log of what I'd say the projects that we're looking at, or the opportunities before we're even quoting, you should think about that being down at least 25% versus normalized levels. We then have to then quote, and we're going to get our fair share of products where we're automatically specced in or we're the likely player, and that's what represents the quote log, and then the orders are an output of that. And as you can imagine, that's a moving funnel of opportunities where, every single quarter, you're converting each of those. So, I think the news that we're sharing today is that we still think we're going to get our fair share of what our opportunities are, but the opportunities are lower. And we think that continues through 2017.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Gotcha. Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Chris.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations and Strategy:
Morning.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Just a question about the capital structure, and what are the shifts in urgency and priority bias right now? Because we've clearly seen that leverage is out of fashion in terms of its impact on equity values, and maybe it's a more durable dynamic than to say merely out of fashion. And would you say the bar has raised on what qualifies as a viable deal prospect?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say so. Right now, cash flow and our focus on our balance sheet is number one. And the board and management are unified in that.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. That's all I got. Thanks.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Good morning. Thanks. I just wanted to ask about the progression of EPS and organic revenue growth in 2Q, 3Q, 4Q. If we're going to do about $0.70, $0.71 in the first quarter, how do we think about EPS in 2Q, 3Q, 4Q? Is this going to be more like a $1.10, $1.10, $1.25? Or – any direction there would be helpful.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think we gave out seasonality before, and we kind of took a look at what Q1 is. And as we mentioned, there's a reason, or two reasons, that Q1 is slightly lower. But we would then expect that our normal seasonality, which is reflected in last year's delivering on that EPS, to be appropriate.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Then for organic revenue growth, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Ramping throughout the year. As we suggested, our year-over-year comparisons get a little easier in Q3 and Q4. So we have the trends out of Q1, or Q4, continuing through Q1 and into Q2, and then we begin to get a little easier comparisons in Q3 and Q4.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
John, that's a little confusing to me just because in first quarter you're going to be up 1% in core sales and then for the balance of the year forecasting down 2%. So there's got to be – you're going to be down from 1%, right? So it's not really progressing up throughout the year.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah, yeah. No, no, no, no. I get that. I'm sorry. I mean, we have some projects that are running out and those are in the Technical Solutions side. And so absent the Technical Solutions projects, my point is that Q2 is our seasonal quarter.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And then Q3 is down due to the fact that we tend to have the August. But on a year-over-year basis, everything other than the projects in Q3 and Q4 are about the same. And, Brian, I'm just not going to give you Q2 EPS guidance on this call today. That's where I'm going there.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. I'm just trying to actually be helpful given that I'm expecting to have Q2 EPS guidance all over the place and then, you're going to give ....
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. I appreciate that.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
... relative to guide.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to our presenters.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you all for your interest and questions, and I'll turn it back over to you for the replay. Operator?
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations & Strategic Planning Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Andrew J. Ronkowitz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kim, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategic Planning, you may begin your conference, sir.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations & Strategic Planning:
Thanks, Kim, and welcome to Pentair's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. And joining me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2015 performance as well as our fourth quarter and full year 2015 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and get back in the queue for further questions in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim. And good morning, everyone. As you saw in this morning's release, Pentair achieved earnings at the high end of the range, driven by core growth in two of our segments, plus solid margin expansion in three of our four segments
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 14 titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Our balance sheet changed significantly with the closing of the ERICO acquisition as our debt ended the quarter at $5 billion on a net debt basis, inclusive of cash on hand. We were able to successfully complete two bond offerings during the quarter. And while our balance sheet leveraged at 3.75 times, a little higher than our targeted 2.5 times leverage ratio, we have a detailed plan in place to bring that leverage ratio to around 3 times by the end of 2016. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 10.1% as our operating income has come under pressure with the top line challenges experienced with our Valves & Controls segment. Free cash flow did improve once again but as we indicated last quarter, our working capital performance is not where we would like it to be given our top line challenges this year. The fourth quarter is a seasonally strong free cash flow generation quarter and we expect to deliver free cash flow approximating 100% of adjusted net income for the year. Please turn to slide number 15 labeled Improved Cash Generating Capabilities. The left-hand chart shows how dramatically our free cash generating capabilities have changed over the past few years. We have a long successful track record of converting 100% of adjusted net income into free cash flow. Given the working capital opportunities over the next few years, we expect our free cash flow conversion to remain at these higher levels. The right-hand side of the page highlights our capital allocation strategy which has remained consistent in recent years. While our balance sheet leverage has increased with the ERICO acquisition, we remain committed to maintaining an investment-grade rating. We had raised our dividend for 39 consecutive years and our dividend yield remains at over 2%. We have invested in organic growth and expect to see three of our four segments positioned to deliver organic growth entering the new year. Given the increased leverage on the balance sheet, our near-term use of cash will be of paying down debt. Please turn to slide number 16, labeled Q4 2015 Pentair Outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect core sales to decline 5% and total sales to decline approximately 3%, inclusive of foreign exchange headwinds and the ERICO acquisition. On a core basis, we expect Valves & Controls to be down roughly 16% as we anticipate continued declines in the short cycle business and further customer push outs as we experienced in Q3. Flow & Filtration systems' core sales are expected to be down 5% on slower Industrial sales and lower distributor stocking. Water Quality Systems' core sales are anticipated to increase approximately 8% by continued strength in aquatics and favorable comparables for our water purification business. Finally, Technical Solutions' core sales are expected to decrease 2% as we expect sales from closures to remain sluggish exiting the year. Due to pullbacks and capital spending and distributor year-end stocking, as well as tougher comparisons for our thermal business as two large projects in Canada anniversary. The inclusion of ERICO in Q4 will help both the top line and adjusted operating income, but we are accelerating integration costs into Q4 from 2016 to get a head start on integration activities. We are expecting adjusted operating income to decrease roughly 7% and adjusted operating margins to contract 80 basis points. Below the operating line, our tax rates should remain around 23%. Net interest and others are expected to be around $34 million, including approximately $16 million of new debt from the ERICO acquisition. And the share count should end the year around 183 million. Our fourth quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $1.03 to $1.05 which is a roughly 10% year-over-year decline. We expect free cash flow to end the year strong with continued focus on improving our working capital performance. Please turn to slide number 17 labeled Full Year 2015 Pentair Outlook. We are tightening our full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.84 to $3.86. For the full year, we're expecting core sales to decline approximately 4%, and foreign exchange to remain around at 6% headwind. Valves & Controls' core sales are anticipated to be down 14%. We expect Flow & Filtration core sales to decline roughly 4% for the full year. Water Quality Systems' core sales are anticipated to grow approximately 5%, and Technical Solutions' core sales are expected to grow approximately 2% for the full year. We expect adjusted operating income to be down 12% for the year and we anticipate adjusted operating margins to contract 50 basis points to 15.6%. We are working aggressively to right-size the cost structure in Valves & Controls, while we believe our other three segments are positioned to deliver margin expansion. We expect overall corporate costs to be approximately $90 million, net interest and other to be around $91 million, our full-year tax rate to be around 23%, and the share count for the full year to be around 183 million shares. Adjusted EPS is expected to be down 9% at the midpoint of the range which remains unchanged. Finally, we expect another strong year of free cash flow into, once again, approximate 100% of adjusted net income. Kim, can you please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
And your first question comes from the line of Deane Dray, RBC Capital. Your line is open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hello. Morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Deane.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Morning.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, I'd like to start in Valves & Controls and maybe some more color on the pricing dynamics. It was interesting to see that last call out on page seven where standard pricing is stable, but you have a pressure on project orders. And I'm betting the project orders is where you're seeing competitors looking to fill up their factories; that's kind of the playbook that they will run. But be curious how is it that standard is holding up so well.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, you're right. I mean, obviously, on the larger projects and there isn't a lot of large projects, but larger projects are the most price pressured. Even some of the smaller projects are receiving a fair amount of price pressure. But the like-for-like highly-sensitive safety-related valve applications in the standard product have not yet seen a price deterioration. I mean, we are anticipating some, but it's kind of – as of Q3, it's generally held on the price-to-price. We have visibility of that in the systems.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Can you give some specifics in terms of how much pricing pressure you've seen on those – on the project orders?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I mean I would say in general, I mean, we're seeing anywhere from – on a standard larger project, we're seeing 10 points to 15 points of pricing pressure. Now...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
With a lot of standard product.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Now, some of that is foreign exchange. Some of that is recoverable through the material and the sourcing lines and some of that we're asking our partners to participate. But it's generally in that range on the larger projects. It's probably in the 5 points to 10 points range on the midsized projects. And as I said, it's relatively holding on standard.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And that sounds like an absolute price difference because you had some adjustments if you're going to go after your partners as well to share in that.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. That would be what the customer is asking for, and then, obviously, we're trying to...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. That would be the headline price and then the issue is how much of that can you recapture in terms of source product and others. So, that's – in other words, that's – really, the comment is about net – what nets to the margin, right.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. And then just staying in the Valves & Controls side, maybe some perspective from you, John, and you can answer the question either as CFO or as the Head of Valves & Controls, either one is fine. But the idea is how have you retold the workforce? You've talked about maybe converting or, not maybe, but converting the workforce in more contingent labors. So, is that still the plan? Where does that stand, and is that something that's built into 2016?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, real quick. Our customer buys from us either in a short cycle, I need it quickly, I want it for a installed based or MRO aftermarket application, or I'm seeking an engineer to order application or a project. So, our sales force has been working to meet those customer needs in that regard. So, what we've done is we've aligned the two value streams to support that within the business around those two buying proposals, which starts to identify the needs to serve the short cycle, which means I need local inventory, I need to get it to you in 24 to 48 hours, I have to have service centers to be able to give you the service you need. And then on longer projects, I can generally ship that from anywhere in the world, and I can begin to work and then engineer the order to the customers' needs. The standard is obviously a higher margin, and you're buying something that you need on a like-for-like basis. The engineer, we have options, and the first option is, where do we want to play? And where do we want to build our annuity base over the next 10 years? And as I mentioned, I think it was at your conference, Deane, that we have to look at our variable nature of that project business. So, can we buy some of the products that we're making today? Can we source in some of the products that are lower margin. And then ultimately, as we build that business back over time, we don't want to carry the large fixed cost structure that we had when we were $2.5 billion to $3 billion business. So, I think as we shape this into 2016 and 2017, those will be the priorities. The team is rallying behind that, as Randy said. It is the right way to shape the business. And we think when we do this, we're going to be in a great position to capture share and to serve our customers better.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let's talk a lot more about that at the Analyst Day.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Pleasure. (27:16)
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Deane.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Andrew J. Ronkowitz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
This is Drew on for Nigel. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about Tech Solutions and just what you're seeing on the general industrial cycle? I think it sort of come up on every call that an industrial recession is potentially in the cards. Just whether or not you're seeing that and what you're looking for?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Drew, I think – I mean, as you recall, we saw what we were characterizing as a pause in industrial spending, I'd say really starting in the first quarter, went into the second quarter. We saw it really roll over into a decline with the short cycle which we really see in our Hoffman business. North America Hoffman which is high share in the industrial world, but broad-based industrial, right? And we saw that, in particular, September; we saw a deceleration. Now, a part of that is uncertainty, how much of it is destocking. But it is what informs us into – you usually see an Industrial – in Energy, you would see a fourth quarter catch-up on spending. And what we're saying is we don't think it's smart to think that will happen in the fourth quarter this year as a result.
Andrew J. Ronkowitz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Got it. Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And then we don't know how long it will last, but we do think there's a bit of a knock-on effect. We talked about it before from Energy into the Industrial. I think that's really what this is.
Andrew J. Ronkowitz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And just as a follow-up, on ERICO, I know not really industrially exposed, more resi-commercial. But just how you're thinking about top line trends for that business into next year and should we think about the historical rate of growth is in that sort of low-single digit, 4%, zone is the right way to sort of model top line?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We're thinking about 2% to 3% next year for the ERICO. And you're right, it is skewed commercial; 75% of the sales is commercial, which we like that exposure. Our share is low in the rest of our Technical Solutions offering with the exception of the thermal building. We're one of the key players there on the thermal side. But on the closures and related equipment side, our share is lowest in commercial. And so, we see some opportunities there and we're – we don't have any – we know there are synergistic opportunities, but that 2% to 3% wouldn't include whatever synergy to growth we can get on the Hoffman brand.
Andrew J. Ronkowitz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Got it. All right. I'll pass along. Thanks, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Morning, Steve.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hey. Just a little bit of clarification. What's the thinking behind moving amortization back from corporate to the segments?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I mean we had done it from a standpoint of moving to adjusted EPS last quarter. And with the inclusion of ERICO, it didn't seem proper to leave $130-ish million or $140 million in amortization just down below the line. And so, by moving it back to the segments, it more appropriates where that amortization is held and gives a relative margin range excluding that amortization, which then makes it more relative to the industries in which they compete.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We thought ultimately it would be more helpful. The $0.40 of accretion we talked about for 2016 is on an adjusted income basis. So, we felt that that was more parallel to do – to pass that back down (30:53).
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. And as you guys are starting to think about and build your plans, your operating plans, for 2016 across the different segments, are you baking into that an assumption about a return to growth within 2016 for Flow & Filtration, or how are you – if you sort of think about a couple of the business units, maybe help us understand – granted it's early, but you still must be already building those operating plans or starting to think about it. So, how are you positioning on that front for an inflection point?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We're going to go into that framework in a fair bit of detail at the Investor Meeting. But the way to think about it is that we talked it – what I talked about it on the script is, and I'll just walk through segment-by-segment, we are going to control our own destiny in Valves & Controls. That's why we're taking the $135 million out because we want to build a plan that has income growth next year even if revenue is softer. So, that's sort of the planning effort there. On Flow & Filtration, as I mentioned also on the script, we really are making progress back towards growth. We will have no more of this lapping of the exit of the large but unprofitable big box segment for us, plus we're seeing – we are seeing Infrastructure, as I mentioned, a quarter earlier in growth there and the backlog supports – our order rate supports that to continue. So we do think Flow & Filtration's heading in the right direction and we'll have a lot more background on that. And in Residential & Commercial, the third quarter was a little lower but we think that was more ephemeral than anything structural. So -- but that's how we're thinking about it.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. All right. I'll pass it on. Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Morning, Joe.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, my first question, clearly, you guys reduced the 4Q guide slightly on this weakness in short cycle Industrial and Energy. I'm just curious -- how bad was – and how weak was September? Is there any commentary that you guys can give us on just cadence as the quarter progressed?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I mean, I think we saw the Industrial short cycle down double-digits as we exited the quarter, and we're assuming that, as Randy mentioned, we're not expecting restocking to occur. And usually in the Q4, we're helped in that segment by people buying ahead of what's anticipated to be price increases next year. And also, we're assuming there's uncertainty in their buying pattern. So, we're adjusting Q4 to reflect September levels carrying through Q4, and we think that's appropriate given where we are in the understanding of the markets that we're participating in today.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
I mean, what are your customers or distributors saying right now regarding inventory that's in the channel? I know you guys made some comment about inventory destocking continuing, but I'm just curious on how you guys are thinking about the outlook there.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, really, it's part and parcel of what John just talked about. I mean, there are – the double-digit decline in September, we think, has a big component of destocking, but it has some real end market decline as well. And that's that maintenance – deferred maintenance, there's lower operating expenses, lower capital spending on a broader base than just oil and gas in the other industries.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then maybe one last question. As you kind of look into 2016 again, you clearly – you guys stepped up the restructuring spending and specifically as it relates to Valves. I'm just curious
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, we'll be addressing incremental actions in Q4 as we suggest, and obviously some of those are the identified Valves & Controls actions which will be actioned in Q4, and we'll have benefit next year. We'll also be taking a look at the Technical Solutions business as it relates to the industrial footprint and taking some actions there to right-size that cost structure to be competitive with the market conditions we mentioned. Clearly, from Valves & Controls perspective, we are very targeted long term to be at that 18% ROS margin range which we thought was a competitive benchmark. And then, you look at that in the new adjusted operating income, somewhere 20% over the next five years. So, we think we see margin expansion next year regardless of what the top line is in Valves & Controls and that's a huge benchmark for us to continue to work back the cost model. So, when growth returns, and it will return, we start leveraging nicely up and really start to benefit from all the cost actions that we're putting behind us.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thanks, guys. I'll get back in queue.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
On the Valves & Controls side, the seasonality has kind of been all over the place from the last couple years. I know you guys had that kind of the change in the year-end around the business in 2012 and then 2013. I think, sequentially, you're up a decent amount, the revenue guide is, in the fourth quarter. Can you maybe just talk about what supports that? Because I think you talked about being more conservative for the fourth quarter, not assuming stuff comes back.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, we saw a fairly significant push-out of revenue from Q3 to Q4. We're assuming that gets pushed out all the way into 2016. The only real difference between Q3 and Q4 is that Q3 has the August which is generally a shutdown month in its entirety, and we have an extra shipping day in Q4. But there's not a big expected seasonality jump for Q3 to Q4. We're just assuming the same level of push-outs and what our existing shippable backlog is, Steve.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And on the incentive comp front. I mean, is that a meaningful number next year? You talked about dialing some of that back in. Is there a number you could give us on what that could be, what – how much of an offset that would be to the growth? It's clearly a lot of good growth cost out on your front.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I mean, I think if you took a look at Valves & Controls incentives and the total GBU opportunity paid at 100% target, we have no idea what those targets will be after 2016, that would be about a $30 million number. And you can assume that not much of that's being paid this year. So, that gives you a kind of an idea. Now, obviously, we're going to expect some growth next year. We're going to expect some effort, and we'll align those targets appropriately.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then, what's...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We'll also see wage inflation, Steve. I mean, we won't – we don't expect to see much on the material side. Definitely, we're seeing commodity prices weakening. But we are still having wage inflation to keep good talent around.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one last question just on the free cash flow. I mean, I think the number, the 100% number refers to the – around – is that around $700 million for the year?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
That's correct. It would be 120% on the old base and 100% on the new adjusted income base. Yes.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
So, I mean, that's such a huge number in the fourth quarter. Are there discreet things that you're looking to pull through? Are there certain big projects that are coming through on that front? And I guess if volumes are weaker than expected, is that a – does that turn into a positive? How do you kind of – how do you judge the risks around that and what should we think about it as we move to the quarter about kind of the levers that we should be watching to make sure that that come through?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. As we said, both in Randy's remarks and my remarks, we're behind in working capital and we don't want to give up yet. I mean, there's clearly probably a $50 million risk associated with that. But we feel like that working capital is ours to go get, and we don't want to give up on it yet and we feel like there's path and actions to go get it . So, we'll work with the GBUs. We also have capital. We've seen our customers adjust their capital spending; we're adjusting ours as well.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We identified the inventory was heading in the wrong direction to support growth in a number of places where the growth wasn't there to get. So, that reversed. I mean, we got good focus on it and we made some progress in the third quarter. We expect a lot more progress in the fourth on...
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right. Okay. Okay. Thanks a lot.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Morning, guys.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Just on Valves & Controls, can you give us a sort of a geographic look at how that business is doing? Any key geographies that are weaker or stronger than others?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I mean, the weakest geography is not a big geography for us. But the weakest on a percentage basis will be Brazil. Clearly, everybody is seeing that. China has not been a strong environment this year, but it's starting to see some power benefits. And for the most part then, it's just a broad-based – as you stop these larger projects globally, it's affecting all regions. The only strength that we've had this year is North America.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's LNG deposit.(40:56)
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. LNG.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
LNG and what else?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Petrochem.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Petrochem.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Petrochem. Okay. And then, John, just as you've dug in a little bit more into Valves & Controls, other than adjusting the cost structure to the lower volume environment, any kind of things that has grabbed you as you've gotten in there that are kind of the two or three things you think really you guys need to get working better on that business?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I mean, it's a good organization, first of all. It's been always customer-centric. And what we needed to do and what we have done as a leadership team and certainly with Randy's sponsorship is addressing the way that the customer or we go to the customer in these value streams. And when you get the simplicity of how the customer wants to be served either short cycle or long cycle, it gives you the clarity to build your SIOP processes and really reduce the complexity in the back office to support it. And so, the team has embraced it. It's a seasoned team who understands the industry, understands the customer needs, and we're excited about the game changer that I think that's going to be.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And you're just starting that? When did that – the shifts begin, I guess, and how long does it take to (42:13)
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Within the last 90 days. Within the last 90 days. Yeah.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Jeff?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Jeff?
Operator:
I'm sorry. And your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, Randy, John, Jim.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Nathan.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I guess I'll just hit Valves & Controls for something different. You talked about the $30 million incentive potential coming back next year. There's also a couple of other offsets. So, I'm hoping you could shed some more color on – there's a pay-as-you-go restructuring. I assume that's going to be some restructuring expense that you're not planning on excluding next year. Any color you can give us on where that'll be focus and what kind of number we could be looking for?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I'll hold back in the number until we identify it specifically. But we have to address – as I mentioned, we have a short cycle of footprint that we need to optimize around which is where our customers' installed base is and how do we serve that most effectively. And then we also have the long cycle or the project-based engineer-to-order footprint that we have to address. I, as the Valves & Controls leader, owe both of those plans to Randy and we'll be taking a look at some footprint actions and beginning to right-size primarily that project side to make sure we got the right cost structure to compete on those larger projects which, again, we'll be prioritizing those types of things that we think grows our installed base over time.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So, you're not planning on excluding those charges? They will be included in your adjusted results?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
These are the things about the cost of transitioning one factory to another factory or the downsizing of those particular...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Redeployment...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Redeployment, yeah.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
...around from where they are now to where the market opportunities are in the future.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Got you.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
(44:17) always had that duplicative cost while you're ramping up and then ramping down.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Yeah. Understood. And then there was another comment, I think, Randy, you made in your prepared remarks that you expect short-cycle growth in 2016. I understand this deferred maintenance on the short cycle going on this year. You also have had like, I think, a deterioration of the macro environment. I'm just wondering if you could give us some more color on what gives you confidence that you can see short cycle growth in 2016.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, let's just talk about oil and gas. You can't defer maintenance forever. They're actually running pretty flat out. Usually, they have refinery turnarounds right about now. A lot of them haven't happened because they have a lot of end market demand and they are maximizing crack spreads. They can't continue that forever. I mean, it's a very safety-sensitive, safety-focused industry. And we also think that a lot of the short – there's been – the capital – the spending reductions in oil and gas and now industrials has been rapid and it has been blunt as opposed to precise. We believe that the planning that's going on right now in the oil and gas industry from the window we have is that there's no intention to keep maintenance down and – unless they're a factory. Yeah. So, for upstream ongoing maintenance, clearly, will be lower. But most of what we're talking about is really refining petrochemical gas plants, industrial factories. Those – unless you're shutting down a factory, you're still doing that. And so, we – history says that you can do it for a short time, but you can't do it forever. So, that's our core planning assumption. We haven't seen anything to tell us different.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
That's helpful. Could you just give us some color on what the refining turnaround maintenance season is down this year?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I don't have a number. I'll be pulling it out anecdotally, and I'd rather – I don't have a specific number. I can't give it to you.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That's fair enough. Thanks very much.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Can you hear me?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah, Jeff.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, Jeff.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Sorry about that.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
That's all right.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Can you just go through the rationale of the management change on Flow & Filtration? You talked about that. And then also just how you're thinking about timing for kind of a permanent replacement for Valves & Controls.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Beth is someone that I had known by reputation for a while. And we're – we may be dealing with some short-term issues in terms of end markets that we don't control, but we do control our own destinies. You've known us a long time. And we intend to continue to build the company. And to build the company, you need great people. So the opportunity to have Beth join the team was one that we were quite excited about. And so she is, so she's on the team. Valves & Controls, we're actively searching right now. And I'm not going to put a date or tell you, but we have a legitimate candidate. I know at least one person in this room that's anxious to get the person onboard; maybe two.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So, it won't be quarters. Okay.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Brian.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
I just wanted to touch, sorry, one more time, just on Valves & Controls. But the bridge that you guys provided. So effectively, you've had no price impact, seems, to-date. It hasn't at the revenue line at least. So I assume it's not in the OP as well, given that it's not in revenue. But when would you expect that to start to impact?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Brian, Brian, can I just clarify.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Sure.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Obviously, we would measure prices the way most companies do, which is I have the like product last year and I have the same like product this year. And when I compare those two prices, I've got a year-over-year price impact. And as I've said earlier, we're not seeing a price negativity yet on the standard side where that would show up. Where we are seeing the pricing is on booked margin, when we go off to win a job and we would've won that at maybe 44% gross margin, and then we're down to 42% gross margin because of the effective price pressure that's in the engineered components. And again, that would be a brand new product that we don't have compared against new product today (49:01).
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right. They're not like-for-like, so you don't put it in price. It ends up hitting productivity.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. Got it. Yeah. And I don't know if you could provide any increments (49:12) color on this but for 2016, you're still assuming that you're going to have operating profit higher. I mean, how – so what's the assumption that price is going to get away and offset by productivity and restructuring?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So we've shared that we think it's at least a couple more points of headwind that you see on that booked margin.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. And then just separately, I know you touched on the working capital and the opportunity but mostly on the inventory side, but can you comment on receivables? There's been some incremental reports recently that customers are holding back on payment especially in the Middle East with Aramco. What has your experience been there? And what's the expectation and are you seeing stress among other customers where that could be a concern?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm going to answer this even though you think the CFO would, because I would like to give John and his team credit.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Sure.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We have really good disciplines around receivables and really conservative practices in terms of watching for late payments and the like. And John and his finance team have been watching it like a hawk. We also have heard some of these reports, and so we're active – we're proactively making sure that we are not hurt by that. And we're not seeing it. We're not seeing anything meaningful in that regard.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to drill in a little bit more on Tech Solutions and talk about the 9% growth that you saw in the Energy vertical there. Can you talk a little bit about why the energy market's holding up so well in that segment, especially relative to Valves & Controls, and maybe comment on the activity that you're seeing within that segment in the petrochem market?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. First of all, if you recall, the biggest part of Energy, oil & gas in (51:24) specifics in Technical Solutions is the thermal business. The thermal business Industrial business saw a huge decline in opportunity. If you recall, things like Voyager up in Canada got cancelled. We had won that. We were seeing those declines back in 2013. I mean 2013, 2014. So we had already sort of seen a decline and, if you want, this is sort of a positive off that bottom, because two large projects are going forward and we won them both. So, we're shipping those now. We're enjoying those now. When I talked about the margin pressures in Technical Solutions, it's the margins on those large projects versus the product margins specifically. So, those – we're actively winning other projects. They're not that size. So, that'll be a headwind but that's a headwind we're planning on managing through. So, that's those projects. So, it's really not – it's not whistling through the graveyard. It's those specific projects.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. And can you comment on what geographies, end markets those projects are in? Those in the oil sands?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Canada. Canada.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Okay. And can you comment on what you're seeing in the petrochem market? I guess specifically within that thermal controls heat tracing market.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, there is opportunities there. They're not as large as some of those ones there, we're actively looking at and bidding on some, particularly in North America where a lot of that activity is. We think we'll do fine there and we've actually got a good backlog on the industrial thermal side. So – and a lot of is non-oil sands. And that's where the activity is, so...
Brian P. Drab - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Chris.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hey. So, sounds like $125 million or so of the $135 million cost-out's already been executed. I think you...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
The actions taken. They're not reading out yet, right? I mean let's just be clear. (53:37)
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. So I think the general framework is sort of a January 1 starting line for readout, but that's a little bit simplistic. How would you advise for a little more nuanced view of how the benefits start to ramp into the run rates?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So Chris, we obviously are getting the cost out this year. But as you know, that gets hung up in the inventory side in what we call deferred productivity or capitalized variance in the manufacturing side. So the costs we got on the manufacturing, we won't start to recognize till next year, and that's a big piece of the cost that we've been after this year. We are getting a little bit of benefit from what we're doing in the G&A in the selling and marketing sides, and we'll experience some of that in Q4. But the main goal here is that we are hitting the ground on January 1 with a full run rate of those savings to offset the types of things that Randy mentioned in his prepared remarks.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thanks for that. And then on the capital allocation side, the Valves & Controls angle maybe rethinking, I think, a year or two ago that was probably a focus for long-term capital allocation. How much has that been supplanted by a view towards scalability around ERICO and Technical Solutions? And even with a little bit of a near-term color with debt paydown, would capital allocation optionality still be part of the plan?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, I'll tackle (55:09) Valves & Controls real quick. And first of all, we are committed to what we call the operating model transformation, which is putting our company – our valves business headquartered in Switzerland and benefiting from the global cash advantaged structure that we have. And so, we'll continue doing that. Obviously, we'll tweak it a little bit to mirror the value streams that I mentioned. But we are – three of those major ERP migrations are behind us, and then we'll continue to right-size the factory structure. But I think you should expect a little less capital spent in Valves & Controls primarily because the volume's down. ERICO itself was not a capital-intensive purchase. Matter of fact, very cash rich and spent less than $10 million...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Except the purchase price.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Except the purchase price. We spent less than $10 million a year on capital. So not a hugely capital-intensive play. Where we've been spending the money in Technical Solutions has been primarily automating our enclosure lines, obviously reducing labor and improving quality, reducing warranty. So we continue to do that because the payback and the IRR was quite high. So, again, mindful on capital. We always say creativity before capital, something Randy's taught the organization. We'll continue to implement that.
Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski. Your line is open.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Josh. Are you there?
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Just – yeah. Can you hear me?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Got you.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
So, just on the Valves & Controls outlook into next year, obviously, all the costs coming out. I would presume, though, that some of this is part of kind of normal PIMS operation and decremental margin management. If you had to put a thought on kind of the core decremental margin on volume declines that we can add these cost-outs as an offset against, how should we think about that next year? I mean, you're talking about price being a bit more of a headwind. Obviously, that's going to be detrimental to that. Any puts and takes we should think about kind of the core decremental before the cost-outs.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, I'll handle the first one, then I'll let Randy clarify it. But right now, material in Valves & Controls is roughly 33% to 35% of sales. So, it gives you an indication when you lose $1 of revenue what the impact is if you can't mobilize the cost-out. And after several cost-out plans, you could assume that we have a fair amount of fixed cost to the business.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would just say two things, Josh. Number one, the level of complexity that – we have made goods strides, particularly in the Four-Wall Lean, reducing the complexity in the business. But in terms of the business complexity, it's still enormous. And so, really, John and the team have gotten a really good focus on that. So, there's a lot more structure to take out. But I would also ask you to – I mean, I know – I'm anxious to get to those answers, too, and more fully, and we'll be better prepared to give you more insights on November 6.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. I'll stay tuned. And then, just one question on ERICO. How does pricing typically function for them? Does it end up being list pricing, job specific? How does that work in kind of a go-to-market?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Most of what they sell is sold through distribution, so it'd be a classic discount to a book list. And then, they have a sales force very much like our pool (58:47) sales force which, even though our product goes through distribution, we have a sales force on the other side that helps sell it through and sells through the applications. There also is some project pricing. But think of it more along – more akin to like a Hoffman structure.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Got you. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is open.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Joe.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Just a question on share. Given the magnitude of the declines in Valves across the space broadly, how do you guys think you're doing in terms of maintaining your growing share in that market?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We think we're maintaining, not growing, not losing. We think we're maintaining.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Particularly in the product lines we care the most about.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. And on the Infrastructure side, you mentioned a little bit more positive view. Maybe you can flesh it out a little bit, like where – is that more of a municipal call?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Yeah. Municipal, it's not just in the U.S., it's more broadly than that. I think it's a recovery of municipal spending. Our backlog – or excuse me, our order rate has been improving the last several quarters and as I mentioned, we figured we were going to turn to growth in Flow & Filtration in the fourth quarter and we actually got growth in the third quarter. So, it's a little bit early. Now, we also put telecom in Infrastructure.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Right.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And that's in Technical Solutions and that's – we talked about that in the call; I mean on the script.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And John, just one quick one for you. On the tax rate, how should we be thinking about that directionally going forward over the next couple of years?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, we expect to finish this year 23% as we shared, and I think we believe this point of opportunity into the next several years.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks. The last question.
Operator:
And your last question comes from the line with David Rose with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Morning. Thank you for taking my call.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, David.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Just a couple last ones. Just to be clear on the accretion – net accretion from ERICO, you say that $0.05 of net accretion after accelerated integration costs. So, is it $0.05 you're adding back the amortization? Are there any other things that we should think about?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, it's on an adjusted basis, right? So, it's ex-amortization. The things like it's rebranding, re-signing, all the startup costs, if you will, that we'd like to get them out of the way quickly, as opposed to, less quickly.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So sort of we might expect sort of a kitchen sink dump in the fourth quarter on that part, like we did with Tyco.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't like that characterization.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Sorry, I didn't mean it in a pejorative sense.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. It's expenses that might have been realized overall a -- within 2016 that we're going to get done and behind us in the fourth quarter.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Okay, perfect. And then lastly, just as we start to think about – you had some comments about destocking in the channel, and I think you addressed some of the receivables issue. But maybe you can provide a little bit more commentary about the strength in the channel. Do you see some channel partners weak that might get even weaker and you might have to, I guess, reshuffle some of the partnerships where you might see some impact? And then lastly, just sort of a little bit more emerging market color. You touched upon Brazil and China on the Valve side, but maybe you can kind of talk about the rest of the business.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
The first part, no, we don't see any of this causing disruption in our channels, certainly not at the moment. And obviously, we'll be closely watching that as we enter into 2016 and help (1:02:36) sustain this capital spending pauses. As far as the other geographies, I mean, as I mentioned, I mean, North America was doing well and then we saw the currency change, and we saw pullback in the overall North American model. And now we've seen a global malaise, I guess.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, in fast food we have fast growth. I mean, China and Brazil gets a lot of attention, but actually Southeast Asia is growing for us.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm talking about at the Pentair level. Latin America, ex Brazil, has grown for us, actually the Middle East overall has grown for us. So, we still have opportunities and promise in those markets even as those larger countries struggle a bit.
David L. Rose - Wedbush Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you very much.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you all.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations & Strategic Planning:
All right. Thank you, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations & Strategic Planning Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC Michael P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Lindsey, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q2 2015 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Mr. Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas - Vice President-Investor Relations & Strategic Planning:
Thanks, Lindsey, and welcome to Pentair's second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. With me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2015 performance as well as our third quarter and full-year 2015 outlook, as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and get back in the queue for further questions, in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on slide four with a summary of how 2015 has started and how we see ourselves positioned for the remainder of 2015. When we reported our first quarter earnings a few months ago, we indicated cautious optimism that the first quarter was simply an anomaly and a slow start of the year that we and others were facing. While second quarter results came in close to our expectations, with Technical Solutions and Water Quality Systems delivering strong organic growth, we exited the quarter with increased concerns about our Valves & Controls segment. We now have a more cautious outlook on spending in energy and industrial and the ability of our Valves & Controls segment to navigate this more difficult environment in 2015. While energy was expected to be down this year, the first quarter slowdown in the broader industrial market has proven to be more than a pause, and we expect sluggish industrial capital spending to continue throughout 2015. Our Valves & Controls segment ended the quarter without the proper plan in place to manage through these increased market challenges. We've already made significant changes and are accelerating cost actions to position our Valves & Controls business better for the long term. As part of these efforts, we made a leadership change in Valves & Controls. I asked John Stauch to lean in and lead the efforts to more rapidly take out the costs needed to right-size the business given the market challenges we face. I'll talk in more detail in a few slides about what we're doing to more appropriately position the business given the ongoing industrial challenges that are expected to continue into 2016. With the industry challenges within Valves & Controls and no improvement expected in industrial, we've revised our 2015 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.80 to $3.90, which now excludes approximately $0.45 of non-cash amortization. Our prior guidance of $3.80 included amortization. So on a like-for-like basis, the new guidance range would be $3.35 to $3.45. Going forward, we will exclude non-cash amortization for our adjusted EPS guidance to better reflect the company's performance. John will discuss this in more detail later in the call. Our balance sheet remains healthy and we expect 2015 to still be a strong free cash flow year. We'll continue to invest in M&A where appropriate. We have two segments performing very well. And now that it's stabilizing, we are accelerating actions within Valves & Controls to right-size the business for the industry reset. Now let's turn to slide five for a discussion of our second quarter results in more detail. The second quarter saw core sales decline 2%, which is an improvement from the 4% core sales decline experienced in the first quarter. Food and beverage remained strong and we also saw growth within residential and commercial. FX remained a significant headwind in the quarter. Given the continued top-line pressure, particularly within Valves & Controls, productivity and price were not enough to compensate, and adjusted operating income declined and margins contracted in the quarter. Free cash flow improved sequentially but was behind last year's comparable level due to working capital timing. We expect free cash flow for the full year to still be roughly 120% of net income. Now let's turn to slide six for a more detailed look at the second quarter results. Our 2% core sales decline consisted of negative 3 points of volume and 1 point of positive contribution from price. Foreign exchange subtracted another 7%. Adjusted operating income declined 12% in the quarter and operating margins contracted 50 basis points, even though we continued to see lean, sourcing actions, and standardization efforts in G&A gain traction. We expect to see continued margin contraction in the second half, as the accelerated cost actions in Valves & Controls are not expected to read out until 2016. Now let's turn to slide seven for a review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. For the second quarter, Valves & Controls core sales declined 11% and foreign exchange translation was a further 10% headwind. Currency translation continued to have a negative impact and the quarter ending backlog was flat sequentially, following declines in the preceding two quarters. However, we do not believe this is a turning point and we expect order volatility in both long-cycle and short-cycle businesses to continue over the intermediate term. Core orders declined 12%, which we will discuss in more detail in the next slide. Core sales in all four Valves & Controls sub-verticals were down during the quarter, with a particularly sharp decrease in industrial process sales. In particular, we saw a continued slowdown in spending, including MRO in chemical and petrochemical in Europe and Asia. We also saw a further pause in buying decisions in North American chemical and petrochemicals. The projects in the backlog, while delayed, still appear to be moving forward. As we indicated last quarter, many customers are delaying shipments and this is not just confined to upstream oil and gas. LNG in North America is one area that has been a bright spot, but it is not nearly enough to offset the overall continued decline in CapEx in the global Oil & Gas value chain. The right half of the page shows second quarter Valves & Controls operating profits and margins. While our lean, sourcing and G&A standardization continue to drive productivity within Valves & Controls, it was not nearly enough to offset the sharp volume declines. In addition, FX translation had some impact on the 42% drop in operating income. Now let's turn to slide eight for a look at the backlog in orders for Valves & Controls. As you can see on slide eight, Valves & Controls backlog is broken down into four key sub-verticals, three of which we've put in our Energy vertical, Oil & Gas, Power, and Mining, and one in our Industrial vertical, which is the Process business. Orders were down in all four sub-verticals, with the exception of Power, which did see a 7% increase in core orders. As we indicated previously, LNG in North America has been the one bright spot compared to overall weakness across the entire Oil & Gas value chain. In addition, with project activity being weak, short-cycle MRO business was down mid-single digits for the second consecutive quarter. The good news is that our quoting funnel remains quite healthy, but these quotes have not yet turned into orders. These ongoing push-outs essentially yield an even lower market demand. As we indicated last quarter, we do not expect orders to improve during 2015, as customers continue to reevaluate existing projects in their pipelines of planned projects. The next several quarters will be focused more on cost while handling the increased pricing pressure on the existing business today. However, we continue to believe in the long-term prospects for Valves & Controls and the transformation underway. Now let's move to slide nine to discuss the actions we're taking to right-size our Valves & Controls segment. Valves & Controls is facing increasing challenges across its businesses. Oil and gas CapEx is down over 20% across the globe, and that's not been confined to just exploration and production. We continue to see orders shift to the right and uncertainty with respect to the timing of these projects only increases each quarter they're delayed. We continue to see pricing pressure within the quote funnel. The two pockets of strength we've seen in North America, LNG and petrochemicals, have not been enough to overcome the global capital spending cuts elsewhere. Though there's been some optimism that delayed projects would break loose and this would be just a cyclical downturn, we now believe what has occurred is truly an industry reset. We must acknowledge this reality and aggressively right-size the cost structure of the Valves & Controls business. While we announced previously that we were beginning cost-out actions, the pace has not been urgent enough. We've now identified over $100 million of targeted 2016 savings. This will come in a few different areas. First, we're more aggressively driving sourcing initiatives to offset the pricing pressures. Second, we're looking at the entire footprint from distribution to manufacturing to service. Third, we're also retooling the sales force with more of a focus on key accounts and selling motions, including more specialized sales. We've made good progress on reducing G&A, but there's still room for further improvement. We've made many, many great strides in the nearly three years we've owned the business, and we've run this playbook successfully in other businesses in the past. With the right leadership and planning now in place, we believe we're in a position to navigate successfully the sales decline we expect to continue through next year. We expect to come out of this stronger. A simpler, higher execution business combined with our leadership in the valves and controls industry will enable us we believe to get Valves & Controls back on track to achieving our profitability goals. Now let's move to slide 10 for a look at our Flow & Filtration Solutions segment. Flow & Filtration Solutions saw a 12% top-line decline, as core sales fell 5% and foreign exchange translation was an additional 7% negative impact. Food and beverage showed growth in the quarter, as global beer and dairy remained strong. Residential and commercial was down 10%, as floods throughout the Central region in the U.S. impacted sales of our pumps. Both infrastructure and industrial showed a small decline, but infrastructure saw orders and backlogs stabilize and we expect to see this read out in a return to growth as we exit the year. Segment income declined 8%, but margins expanded 60 basis points as cost action and pricing read out in the quarter. Productivity was strong and the decision to exit low-margin products, while impacting the top line, is helping the profitability of the segment. The focus for Flow & Filtration Solutions is to stabilize the business and drive margin expansion in 2015, and the second quarter performance was a good step in getting the business to where we want it to be. Now let's move to slide 11 for a look at Water Quality Systems. Water Quality Systems was a bright spot once again, with core sales growth of 6%. Despite the flooding in Texas and its impact on pool sales, we saw our residential and commercial vertical grow 5%. In addition to continued growth from our aquatics business, our water and purification business saw gains in Europe and China. The food and beverage vertical was up an impressive 10%, as both our foodservice and aquaculture businesses delivered another strong quarter. The right half of the page shows first quarter Water Quality Systems operating profits and margins. Segment income grew 5% and margins expanded 40 basis points to 22.1%. Price offset inflation and productivity remained strong. We continue to invest in this business in the form of sales, marketing, and new product development. Our outlook for the Water Quality Systems remains very positive, and we expect to see solid growth and margin expansion for the full year. Let's now turn to slide 12 for a look at Technical Solutions results. Technical Solutions saw core sales growth of 6%, which was offset by a 6% FX translation headwind. After a challenging first quarter, the segment posted strong growth in both energy and residential and commercial, while industrial was up a solid 4%. Infrastructure was the only vertical that was down. This was against a very tough comparison last year. Within energy, we continued to ship on two projects in Canada. But more importantly, we saw good backlog growth during the quarter. We recognize that many of these smaller project wins could be subject to delay and are watching them closely. Within our equipment protection business, we saw an improvement from a very challenging first quarter, but the outlook for industrial is guarded and the second half could see muted growth. Within residential and commercial, our building solutions business had solid growth, and the recent acquisition of Nuheat has gotten off to a good start with Pentair. The right half of the page shows first quarter Technical Solutions operating profits and margins. Segment income grew 5% and margins expanded 110 basis points to 19.9%. Price was modest in the quarter but material inflation began to moderate. Productivity was strong despite some ongoing negative FX translation costs. Going into the second half, we expect to see some mix pressures on margin as we see more project than product sales in our industrial heat trace business, while the top line growth will drive good income growth. Now let's turn to slide 13 for a look at our key priorities for each of our four segments. Before I turn the call over to John to discuss our outlook in more detail, I want to update you on our key priorities in each of our four segments. As we discussed in detail already on the call today, our key focus near term within Valves & Controls is aggressively adjusting to the significant industrial reset they're facing. Our second half financial outlook sees further income pressure as our repositioning of the business is not expected to read out in the financials until 2016. We're confident the issues Valves & Controls faces are fixable and we can return the business to its improvement agenda. While John will be leading the business in the interim, we have a strong team in place, including a new sales leader. We believe we have made great strides operationally as well as reducing complexity in the business, yet there remain many opportunities to better align the salesforce, especially on driving the short-cycle business. We're also aggressively looking at the footprint, which includes manufacturing, distribution, and services. While we have made good progress on reducing G&A and we remain committed to our operating model transformation that's underway, the depth of the initial reset will allow us to further improve G&A. There are growth opportunities within Valves & Controls, particularly with North America LNG and petrochem, and we will continue to competitively bid in a disciplined manner on projects across all served industries. We expect orders to remain pressured through the first half of 2016, and we will watch closely for signs of the bottom. Our focus within Flow & Filtration is margin expansion in the short term, but we remain excited about the long-term growth opportunities within this segment. When we aligned our Flow & Filtration businesses earlier this year, it was to improve our ability to deliver solutions to our customers. We've discussed often that our strategy is informed by the food, water, and energy nexus in the growing middle class globally, as this places pressure on the demand for resources. We have a strong portfolio technologies to help solve the needs of a range of customers by combining pumps, valves, and filters into solutions that allows us to drive growth in areas such as industrial water reuse, beer, dairy, and energy recovery. By the end of 2015, we expect to see our investments start to deliver growth and that will be seen in a return to a more consistent predictable top line. We have two high-performing segments in Water Quality Systems and Technical Solutions. Water Quality Systems had some good momentum as the majority of their businesses is within the residential and commercial and food and beverage verticals. Technical Solutions is weathering a slower industrial CapEx cycle, but a solid energy backlog puts them in a good position to grow within a very challenging industry, at least this year. While both Water Quality Systems and Technical Solutions have strong organic growth opportunities ahead, we also continue to build the funnel around strategic bolt-on acquisitions, as these two segments have earned the right to do M&A. With that, I'll turn the call over to John to provide additional color on our outlook.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Andy. Please turn to slide number 14, titled 2015 Current Outlook. This slide looks at the changes that have occurred since we last updated our forecast in April. The biggest change to our guidance, as you can see, is that volume remains a challenge, primarily within our Valves & Controls segment. Price remains in line with what we have been expecting, and FX has actually improved modestly from when we last updated guidance. The negative operating leverage on this additional volume decline could not be offset quickly enough, and we are working to right-size the Valves & Controls business, as Randy stated earlier on the call. Food and beverage remains strong as does residential and commercial, but energy is facing a large reset, as excess capacity that we've built has not been met by expected demand. For our industrial vertical, we are not expecting any second half recovery as industrial CapEx remains muted. While three segments are expected to deliver margin expansion for the full year, given the challenges within Valves & Controls, overall operating margins are expected to contract for the company. Last quarter we discussed cost actions we were taking to help mitigate FX headwinds and top line pressures. But now we'd like to be even more aggressive in right-sizing the Valve & Controls, and we expect we will get the cost out and better position the business for an eventual industry recovery. Please turn to slide number 15, labeled 2015 Adjusted EPS Outlook. I want to take a moment to discuss the change we are making to our adjusted earnings outlook to avoid any confusion that may arise. Our prior guidance included the amortization that we carry from past acquisitions, which we do not believe accurately reflects the underlying performance of the company. Beginning with this quarter, we will exclude intangible amortization from our adjusted EPS guidance. On a like-for-like basis, our prior guidance of $3.80 per share for 2015 has been lowered to a range of $3.35 to $3.45, which relates to what we view as an industry reset faced by our Valves & Controls segment. As a result, excluding $0.45 of amortization, our new 2015 guidance of $3.80 to $3.90 would compare to $4.22 in 2014 on a like-for-like basis, not the $3.78 of adjusted EPS we reported last year. We have included a reconciliation at the back of our earnings presentation to show what the comparable year-ago period would look like in our new adjusted EPS look. Please turn to slide number 16, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Ending debt was approximately $3.3 billion, or $3.2 billion on a net debt basis, inclusive of global cash on hand. In the first half of this year, we returned over $300 million of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. As a reminder, we completed $200 million in share repurchases during the first quarter, and we have $800 million left under our current $1 billion authorization. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 10.9%. As expected, free cash flow did improve from the first quarter, but our working capital performance is still not where we'd like it to be given our top line performance so far this year. The working capital opportunities, mostly inventory, are within Valves & Controls and Flow & Filtration Solutions, and we remain strongly committed to our free cash flow targets for the full year and still expect to generate 120% or greater of net income. Please turn to slide number 17, labeled Improved Cash Generating Capabilities. The left-hand side of the slide is one we introduced recently, and it demonstrates how the cash generating capabilities of the company have changed over the past couple of years. We have a long successful track record of converting 100% of net income into free cash flow. But for the past couple of years, that number has been close to 120%. Given the working capital opportunities we believe that we have over the next few years, we expect our free cash flow conversion to continue to run at these higher levels. However, over the longer term, given our amortization, we expect to generate free cash flow close to 110% of net income. The right-hand side of the page is a reminder that our capital allocation strategy remains disciplined and consistent. We remain committed to maintaining our investment-grade rating. We have raised our dividend for 39 consecutive years, and our dividend yield is competitive at 2%. We continue to invest in organic growth. And finally, we'll continue to look at using our excess cash flow in the best way to drive long-term ROIC improvement, whether that be acquisitions, share repurchases, or a combination of both. Please turn to slide number 18, labeled Q3 2015 Pentair Outlook. For the third quarter, we expect core sales to decline approximately 2% to 3% and FX to present a 6% headwind. At a core basis, we expect Valves & Controls sales to be down 11% to 12% based on the shippable backlog, and we expect to be further project delays. Flow & Filtration Solutions core sales are anticipated to be down 4% to 5% on slower industrial and infrastructure business. Water Quality Systems core sales are expected to grow 7% to 8% on continued strength in aquatics, foodservice, and environmental systems. Finally, Technical Solutions core sales are anticipated to be up 2% to 4% on the strength of energy backlog in our heat management solutions business, offset partially by continued sluggish industrial capital spending. We expect adjusted operating income to be down roughly 18% and adjusted operating margins to contract 140 basis points to 13.8%. Below the operating line, we anticipate our tax rate to be approximately 23%, net interest and other to be around $19 million, and the share count to be approximately 182 million. Our third quarter adjusted EPS guidance range of $0.94 to $0.97 represents a decline of roughly 14% year over year. We also expect free cash flow to continue to improve as we manage working capital closely. Please turn to slide 19, labeled Full Year 2015 Pentair Outlook. For the full year, we are now expecting adjusted EPS of $3.80 to $3.90, which excludes intangible amortization. For the full year, we expect core sales to decline 2% to 3% and FX to be around a 6% headwind. Valves & Controls sales are anticipated to be down 11% to 12% on a core basis. Flow & Filtration Solutions sales are expected to be down 4% to 6% on a core basis. Water Quality Systems sales are anticipated to be up 6% to 7% on a core basis, and Technical Solution sales expected to be up 1% to 2% on a core basis. We anticipate growth in our residential and commercial and food and beverage verticals, with energy declines expected to continue and industrial to remain sluggish. We expect adjusted operating income to be down 14% for the year and adjusted operating margins to compress 70 basis points to 13.8%. We have talked at length during this call about the actions we are taking to right-size the Valves & Controls business, and we expect to enter 2016 stronger as we navigate near-term market challenges, mostly in energy and industrial. We expect overall corporate costs to be approximately $90 million, net interest and other to be around $73 million, our full-year tax rate to be around 23%, and the share count for the full year to be approximately 183 million. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be down roughly 9% at the midpoint of the range. Finally, we expect another strong year of free cash flow at approximately $750 million or greater than 120% of net income. Lindsey, can you please open the line for questions? Thank you.
Operator:
Certainly. Your first question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks and good morning, all.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Steve.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I'd love to dig into the whole commentary around industry reset and make sure I understand the difference between a reset and structural problems, as evidenced by pricing pressure and increased competition in Valves & Controls. So, Randy, could you just maybe clarify your thinking on this front? Are you seeing increased competition? What are you seeing in the marketplace? You talked about excess capacity, et cetera, from a structural perspective.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me back up and just talk about – what we did during the quarter is we actually saw – as you can see, we saw revenue come in about where we thought we were seeing, but we weren't seeing the margins come in. So when we dug in deeper, we saw that the business was under more margin pressure. That was less about price and more about the fact that the costs that we had agreed would come out weren't coming out, and that's cost above material. And at the same time, we saw too much optimism in terms of all of the products not only in the quote log that was going to close, but in the backlog some more hope than certainty about when those things would ship. So as we looked at those realities, we said we need to be much more radical about our cost reductions, we need to accelerate a lot of our thinking about reducing the complexity in the business. And that's why John and I leaned in, and I have John specifically leaning in even deeper to drive a bigger cost-out agenda. Yes, we're seeing more price competition. We even feel it a little bit on the MRO side, though that's anecdotal, not a trend. And I think basically the longer this goes on and if you look at the whole industry serving oil and gas and all elements of it, there's going to be a wringing out of cost to get efficiency. And so for us to compete in this environment, we characterize that as an industry reset. The business was hoping it was just a temporary downturn. That's why we used the language we did. That reality is well understood now in the business and the requirements to take the costs out are known and we want to show a commitment to action.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
John, I don't know if you want to add anything, but go ahead, Steve.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
What do you think is happening on the competition side? Given the industry situation and excess capacity, are you actually seeing some of the smaller or mid-sized guys struggling to the point where you could see some industry consolidation occur more aggressively as a result of that, and what do you think is on that front?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Absolutely, Steve. This is John. I think to Randy's point, we're seeing quotes in funnels that we're getting quote dates on them and then those quote dates are being pushed again to next quarter and the quarter after. The reality is the longer those quotes gets pushed off, the more likely they are not to be let, at least not in this year. So we do have a lot more competition quoting for jobs. There's a lot more time to evaluate other competitive orders against other competitive orders because we're not in a rush to get it done in 30 days or 60 days on the quote side. And there is more competition coming in. And as Randy mentioned, we've got to be competitive ourselves and we are going to continue to see the smaller people be more aggressive. But if they don't win, then I think there's a consolidation that has to occur.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right. Over time I think it will lead to more consolidation. The smaller guys, they're bidding to keep their doors open and they get aggressive on price.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And is that a place where you'd want to participate in the consolidation in that sector as opposed to your other businesses?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
As I mentioned, we have two really high performing, as high performing as any business as anybody has in Water Quality and Technical Solutions, and they're ready to go on M&A. I think we could do well in the consolidating of the valves space, but I want to sort our own situation out first so I can do that with confidence.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
All right, fair enough. Before I hand it off, just one more thing. Are you seeing on the inventory commentary inventory advances or working capital pressure as a result of the current environment? Is your outlook for working capital pressured at all because of the customer situation at this point?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I think not. You can see the signs. We still improved working capital in the quarter, we just didn't improve it as much as last year. And that's as much because sales was down so much. It takes a while to shovel it out, if you will, as sales come down. So we've got great processes on receivables. And a big part of it is in Valves & Controls, and because of their hopefulness around some of the stuff breaking loose, they were less aggressive on the inventory side than I think they will be going forward.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I'd like to stay within this industry reset definition and maybe if you could share with us in Valves & Controls what the CapEx decline expectations are for this year. You said it's 20% year to date. How bad do you think it turns out for the year? And maybe if you can give the specifics around upstream, midstream, downstream.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
There's a lot of data out there, Deane. We've seen it as bad as 30% on the high end of the data that we've seen. And that would probably represent the upstream CapEx spending where the cuts are harder, and we've seen the average that we were using around 20%. It's a little less than the downstream and a little deeper in the upstream. The midstream is, as Randy mentioned, especially outside oil and gas and LNG, et cetera, is still in a relatively growth mode. So it's a pretty deep cut. And we think that given the fact that we've come through two quarters, it's not likely that August and July, which tend to be slower months, are going to rapidly pick up. And then when you come out of the Q3 window and you've got one quarter left, it's very easy to push those projects into next year. So we're taking the view that the high end of the range is what's likely to occur, and we think that this lingers through the first half of 2016, and then we're hopeful that it starts to recover at the end of 2016 as some forecasts would suggest.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So I would think of it as – obviously exploration and production, the exploration side is down the most, and that's well understood. But particularly the large integrateds, they cut capital more generally. And we understand how that works for a big company. It could be as much as 30%. That's what we're using as our planning assumption.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Is that 30% across the upstream, midstream, downstream, so in total for Valves & Controls?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, I'd say roughly it fits. It's how we're looking at it, how it will impact us.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So that's why we're being more aggressive on cost. And, Deane, you followed us a long time. We've been, unfortunately, at this movie before, so we know how to get it to turn out right.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
All right. So just from our perspective, it looks like you are being very conservative, and certainly you couldn't look at this and say you're being optimistic. So we like seeing a point that it could worsen from here, and we know this is an industry event, not a Pentair execution side. And then, just to switch gears, if we could, Randy, to the extent that you can, can you comment on the activist news, any initial discussions? And very specifically, I think where everyone was a bit surprised was the emphasis that you all would be a consolidator in the Flow segment. And maybe if you could, reconcile what your ambitions are in M&A versus what the activist might be suggesting.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We have a lot of shareholders, and we've talked to all of them. We welcome constructive input from all of them. So we've had discussions with a lot of folks. That's why we've led to a lot of things we've done. I talked for some time about the fact that we have – and it's one of the reasons why we changed the way we were talking about earnings. We believe we have an advantaged structure. We have strong execution skills. We have proven that we can do large and creative deals and pull them off well despite what we're seeing now, which is as you said, a market downturn, not an issue with what we've done with the business. So we are logically the right consolidator. It was part of the vision as we looked at it to build the company and get scale and have this advantaged structure. And we want to put it to work. We want to put it to work across the segments in a way that creates shareholder value going forward. We think we are aligned with shareholders on creating shareholder value. We're not happy. We're not satisfied at all with recent performance, and we're open to all kinds of ideas. And we believe we've earned the right to be a consolidator, and we want to be.
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Robert Baird. Your line is now open.
Michael P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi.
Michael P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
On the cost saves side, could you just line out what's incremental this quarter versus what you guys lined out on the first quarter? It certainly sounds like you're layering on more cost saves going into next year based on just three months ago, but I wouldn't mind hearing what the difference is and, if you can, put some numbers around it.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So when we came out of Q1, and I'll just talk to Valves & Controls specifically, Mike, and I'm going to come back to the other GBUs, which are actually performing relatively well in the markets that they're involved in. We wanted to get $40 million to $60 million across Valves into 2015 to 2016, and that was relative to expecting that the foreign exchange headwinds would be about that and suggesting that that would be a permanent reset that needed to be dealt with. We're now tasking, if you look at the slide, close to $135 million of costs out when you add in the sourcing benefits, and so those are comparable numbers. We did not and have not felt like we're going to realize much of that first opportunity of cost that we wanted to get out, and that's why we're making the change and ongoing in there with Randy's direction. And we're working through how to get it out in a way that actually reduces complexity, improves the customer experience, and positions us well for the recovery when it happens.
Michael P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
That makes sense, and then on the pricing, last question there. I don't want to beat a dead horse. But can you talk about the pricing on a net basis in the marketplace today? Obviously, you're seeing some pressure from a bidding perspective. But when you think about how you guys are sourcing with commodity deflation – probably there's a little bit of a benefit for you guys. How is that lining out cumulatively for you guys?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
As we look at it, even in Valves & Controls, when we're into the aftermarket or the MRO or the like product in a like market, the pricing pressure has been relatively flat. There's competition, but for the most part there is a desire to replace a like-for-like component there. And we're not seeing huge pricing pressure on the installed base. It's more the larger projects. The same would be true in the rest of Pentair as we go through into the aftermarket. We're seeing modest price increases right now. Certainly we're not in a situation where we can raise price given where raw materials are. But we are net-net in a positive position on that, as you suggest.
Michael P. Halloran - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good morning. So obviously, the process markets are treating you with a lot of difficulty like everyone else. My question is really about within 30 days – I'm sorry, 90 days, we've had what I would call a draconian change in the way you guys are talking about this business. It was looking weak, and now it's looking really weak. So my question is a couple years ago, we went to a structure where your global business unit heads reported directly to you. And I'm wondering now if we need another layer in there because it just seems as if whatever happened in Valves & Controls I believe should have been sniffed out a little earlier than this given the degree. Could you bring some thought to that, Randy, and whether in fact the company needs a COO?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Scott, it's John. Real quick, let me just give you the Valves & Controls view. When you take a look at the quote funnels Randy mentioned, it was at record levels. We have a record quote funnel. I think the a-ha moment for us was when we started to ask appropriately the movement in that funnel, what was actually getting quoted, what was actually getting pushed out, how many of those projects have been there for long periods of time. And then you get to the fact that there was a lot of projects in there that we honestly felt were not going to get quoted this year and therefore not going to come into backlog. It's very easy for people to want to believe in an optimistic forecast, especially in the future, because it takes away the pain of having to deal with the reality. And so we're acknowledging the reality of where we are. We're getting on with the solutions that we have to implement, and that's where we're going forward. I think it was our questioning of the leadership and going through that funnel that led to the realization that the back half was not going to recover. Now there's a lot of market data out there that would say that there is some hope that the second half will recover. We're just not buying into it.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Layers don't improve. Simplicity layers don't improve communication. Layers don't do anything except for expand capacity which – I think that would be a fair question to ask. When our COO retired, we asked four presidents to step up to be mini COOs. Could we have seen this sooner? Probably. Should we have seen it sooner? Your judgment, it's up to you. But we did see it. And we thought we acted as fast as any COO would have ever acted.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC:
Fair enough, thank you for that answer. Let me just ask this one follow-up, if I can. On the synergies with the Valves & Controls business, we had that number pegged at about $270 million, if I recall. I was just wondering how much synergy savings, separate and apart from your restructuring, is still on the come for you guys in this business.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me start by – let's look at the arc of Valve & Controls since we got it. If you take a look at our current outlook on a like-for-like basis – John, correct my numbers to get them accurate, we were down $400 million in sales. Yet on $400 million down in sales, we will have the same margin as the business had when we bought it. That isn't because we haven't done anything. That is because we've done a lot. And with volume, we get the cost structure down more. Even with pricing pressure, we'll be a winner in this. We've had to do this before. It's not pleasant. Yes, I wish I started it six months ago or even three months ago. We started it a month ago. And so all the cost we took out is out. This business wouldn't be making 10% right now in this outlook if we hadn't. It was making 10% when we bought it. John?
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC:
So you're saying that the answer to my question is that the costs are out, the $270 million is done.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, run the math and you'll see what this business would look like if we hadn't done what we did already.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
But there's still too much complexity. There's still too much. There's still opportunity.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Joe.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Just touching on the leadership change for a second in Valves & Controls, can I just better understand what your thought process is right now? John is going to take over in the interim. You mentioned you hired a new sales leader. I'm just trying to understand what the long-term direction of the management team is on that business.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. One of our management philosophies is when you don't fully understand what the core issues are, you go to the problem. That's what we expect in leaders. You go to the problem. You understand the problem yourself. And then you define the execution plan, and then you act. And that's what John and I did on this. And what we do is, to the earlier point, you've got the layers out of the way in order for you to see that. And we decided that rather than appoint a new president right away, we should understand the problem more fully. And I have ultimate trust in John. And barring myself doing it, John is the right guy to do it. So we will find and appoint the right president for that and make a very thoughtful choice. And so the structure will still be four presidents, four segments.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. But I guess from a timing perspective, how long do you think it will take to really decipher what's going on and then start to think about who the successor would be?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right now, we've got a good handle on the cost and we're working through some of the changes we want to make to be more effective on the sales end. But I'm not going to gate it to that. We're going to take the time this time to find the right – and judge the people to get the right leader, which maybe we should have taken a little more time to do.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
All right, that's fair enough. And, John, maybe going back to your comment earlier on the $135 million in cost-outs, to your point, it seems like you didn't really realize much of it in the second quarter. And so I'm just trying to get a sense for the cadence. How much do you expect to see in 2015 versus the benefits that you would expect to see in 2016?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We have very little of that expectation into the 2015 forecast.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We did have some in the prior forecast.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We did have some modest in the prior forecast, but very little of the overall expectation is in the actual 2015 expectations at the moment. I would expect that we're at a full run rate basis by Q4, but the nature of how we bring that through to manufacturing and inventories, we would expect to see that benefit in 2016.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, all right. That's helpful. Maybe just following up on that for one second. Given that we haven't seen a lot of pricing pressure yet on the Valves business but maybe there's some to come in the second half, would you then expect the decrementals to potentially get worse then from here in the second half of the year, or do you expect some of the benefits to help offset that? I'm just trying to get a sense for what your thinking is within the guidance.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We've gauged the trend on the margin pressure into the back half of the year, and we have not yet put any of the expectation of the savings into the back half of the year.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So we believe we have pretty sober assumptions about the decrementals.
Joseph A. Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, fair enough. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just on Technical products, you guys cut the forecast there on sales as well as margins a bit. I think on the sales front, it looks like the fourth quarter is going to be really tough there. Can you maybe just talk about those dynamics?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We have an energy and industrial business in Technical Solutions, and we took a little bit of the trends that we're seeing in the Valves & Controls business and applied them to some of the fourth quarter assumptions, thinking that some of that might slip into 2016.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And so that's like backlog-related business like maybe some offshore stuff where the backlog rolls down?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Correct.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then on this cash EPS change, obviously there was a filing from one of your major shareholders that talked about this move. This happens a few weeks after that comes out. Was there something that was in consideration prior to the activist discussion? It just seems the timing here in concert with the $0.40 EPS cut, I'm just curious as to what the thought process was on that front.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We've been considering this for some time and we've been hinting at this for some time in several of other earnings calls and analyst discussions where we had the slides out there showing the impact of the amortization. When we take a look at our advantaged structure, how Randy said, we don't think necessarily people are looking at below the EBITDA valuation of the company and we think the performance isn't being properly reflected.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. One last question. If you adjust to the new margin guidance for Tyco Valves & Controls, and clearly I think without the cost-out you would be at a lower profit level. That's pretty clear in light of the revenue dynamics. What is your return? Have you reset that return on that investment? Where is your return now on the Tyco Flow deal ROI?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's still exceptionally high. We're well north of 10% on that deal. You've got to remember that the advantaged structure also leaks over into the value on the rest of the Pentair businesses. So the structure itself and what it's done to optimize the below the line has helped us immensely.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right, the tax benefits.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thermal has done very well.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS. Your line is now open.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Shannon.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Can you explain a little bit more this retooling of the sales force in Valves & Controls? I know obviously there's just a ton of end market pressure on you guys right now. But even back when those end markets were pretty decent, it seems like there was work to be done on retooling the sales force. What are the issues there that you're trying to resolve and what do you think the fix is?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We're working with a professional sales leader. And we have always felt that where a territory leader might have a budget, that budget is not properly broken out by account. And we feel it takes a different type of sales leader to call on a global account, a different type of sales leader call on an EPC and then a different type of sales leader to call on the base MRO/services opportunities. In some cases, that was the same sales leader in that territory calling on all three. So we're looking at it from a customer back account-based optimization and looking at those metrics globally to make sure we're properly dealing with the opportunities in the regions where those opportunities exist and we're making sure that we have that optimization. We're also going a step further to say once that quote comes in, how do we optimize the quote process. And when we're in a standard product quoting, we should have that in hours, not days. And when we get into longer-cycle engineer to order, there should be some thoughtfulness put into which projects we should be quoting and what is the prioritization of what's in the backlog, not all projects being equal. So that's what we've been working on. We've been working on that for close to nine months now. We've rolled it out in some of the regions and seen some great results from it. And we think we're going to continue to advance that sales optimization throughout the rest of 2015 into 2016.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And is there another business within Pentair that you're modeling that off of that does that well, or is that something outside the company that you're using where you've seen that work?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Clearly, our aquatic systems business is account-based, sales-focused, calls on the end user, specifically on the end user, and that's served us quite well. We do also have other pockets of success in Pentair that we're modeling that against it as well.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
And then just in terms of the acquisition potential in Water Quality and Technical Solutions, I understand those are the ones operating well, and so they're the ones that are ready to fire away on acquisitions if they find them. But can you just give us a little sense what that market map looks like for those businesses in terms where you could take them via acquisition?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
There are a number of opportunities for consolidation there. They're still pretty fragmented, too, when you take a look at Water Quality, which includes the whole residential and commercial filtration area. It includes the aquatics area, which is pool; and then the aquaculture space, which gets us into some food processing, which is growing very rapidly. It's just small still, still small. So really there's a pretty broad play there. We're large in residential filtration. We think residential and commercial filtration is a good space. And now I think it's really well in a good home in Water Quality Systems. Then in Technical Solutions, we have a high-performing, high-execution business that has done great with everything we've ever put in there. And there's still – despite the consolidation that's going on in the whole industrial and electrical space, there are still opportunities there.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm not going to get into it right now.
Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks a lot, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Jeff.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, just as a follow-on to Shannon's question, can you just talk about what's in the pipeline more imminent or visibility within those two segments where you want to grow and how that does or doesn't impact how you're thinking about buyback?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm not going to talk about – we have things in the pipeline. That's as far as I want to go. And we have a $1 billion authorization. We already did the first $200 million of it this year, and that was what we intended to do. So I wouldn't announce any change in that. So we've talked for some time about the fact that we've been looking. But there have to be sellers as well as buyers. I guess that goes without saying. I don't know if I...
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Jeff, and the other thing I would add is we have a very active pipeline. It's across a lot of our growth, as we call them, platforms or technology positions. We're always looking at that active pipeline. And right now, I would feel that we're far enough down the line on several of them that we feel that our current capital allocation plan is appropriate.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then just real quick on Tech Solutions and the Thermal business, can you just speak to maybe why that business is growing so nicely in this tough environment and maybe the disconnect versus what you're seeing in Valves & Controls?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say that they went through their – the thermal business went through their adjustment to the new reality in oil prices when oil prices first started to fall. And even before they started to fall, when the oil fans, which is a large segment for thermal large market, cancelled a lot of projects. And so a lot of their opportunity was wrung out during 2013, even the fourth quarter of 2012 and 2014. And then their focus was on winning the things that we thought would really happen, and they did. So those are in the backlog now. That's why we showed a measure of caution about how long that will continue. But right now, they have a good backlog. They have great execution. They've been very responsive to customers' needs to reconfigure projects to save money, and our team is really good now. And so the backlog is good, but I mentioned actually the backlog is up in the quarter and there are a lot of smaller projects. There's a fair degree of maintenance in that business. So these small projects we think are pretty solid, but we're going to be cautious given what we've seen in Valves & Controls.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
All right, thanks a lot.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, Randy, John, Jim.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
If I could just ask you a question about slide 14, you have a lower sales outlook there of $110 million and an operating income impact there of an additional $90 million just on volume, which is a decremental margin on that of about 82%, which seems incredibly high. I would have thought just not buying steel would have the decremental being lower in that. And obviously, it looks like zero benefit from any restructuring actions. What could move the needle there so that that is not quite as bad as what you've put in that forecast?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So your math is right. The slide is right. We reviewed the slide and did the same look internally. It is solely related to the drop in the operating income outlook of Valves & Controls, and you're seeing there both the high volume drop-through, which is the high decrementals in the first bullet, plus the realization that the cost actions that Randy and I tasked them to focus on this year are not likely to occur this year.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(59:23).
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And that's the impact that you're seeing that drifts into (59:28).
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. So the absence of some benefit from cost actions in there as well, as Jeff illustrated, leverage on sales.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
The positive change is accelerating those actions and realizing the benefit on these actions or doing slightly better on the expected booked margin of those projects.
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, thanks. And then I'm just going to actually ask a question that's not on energy. You said the residential and commercial – I thought you'd enjoy that. The residential and commercial part in Flow & Filtration was down 10%, with a big impact there from the floods. Could you possibly quantify that and how that business is tracking ex those discrete events?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
As we've said before, we've exited some product lines, which has been a good margin – not products but basically the big box sales. We've been over a two-year process of exiting that, and that's been a margin lift, but it's been a top line and that's probably half of it. And then we actually think we're making pretty good progress on the pro side. But basically, all our distributors stopped buying and it just started raining and that's a pretty big market. And we believe others have seen that as well. So we don't believe it's going to stay down that low. We think the residential/commercial growth or market growth that's showing in Water Quality Systems is more along the lines of the end markets that we're seeing. There, we even grew in China.
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And we must be about lapping the big box exit now, correct?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
At the end of 2015.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
End of 2015.
Nathan H. Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
End of 2015. Okay, thanks very much.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yes, hi. Good morning.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. I'm going to ask one in Valves & Controls and then I'll move on as well. But on Valves & Controls, and I think it relates to Nathan's question also. So I guess I just didn't understand the explanation there, just the fact that you're not going to be realizing some of the savings you had previously anticipated. I don't understand why that would add to the incremental the way you're describing it. The incremental should be incremental on the volume. Just because you're not getting the savings, I would assume that doesn't – that would reduce the decremental, not augment the decremental.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We're comparing to a previous forecast where the expectation of realizing those benefits was in it. We're not comparing to prior year. So what we're looking at and what we're saying is that the change in the year, the change in the forecast and revenue versus the April forecast about changing the operating income, that was the question he was asking. If you look at it year over year, you'll see those high decrementals as well, but they're close to being in the 60s, and that's just the difference between sales and material.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay. But maybe you could...
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
(1:02:27) other costs out.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay, I got it. But just maybe touching more on that, previously Valves & Controls, you were looking at 14% previously. Now you're looking at 10%, and 10% excludes intangible amortization as well. So it's probably more like a 500 basis point decline, maybe more, I don't know.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It depends. We have not adjusted any of the segment margins for enhanced lag (1:02:50).
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
That hasn't been adjusted, okay. But can you bridge that a little bit? How much of that is volume? And I know you're not baking any savings than they are now. How much of that is volume, price, and exclusion of savings? Can you maybe give a little bridge from that perspective?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
There are one to two points of standard margin decline on a year-over-year basis, and the rest is just the volume drop-through.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Just leverage.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
So no price is in that number pressure?
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I just said it's one to two points of margin decline.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay, got you. And then I'll just move on to – in Water Quality, so resi, commercial, food and beverage still doing well. Maybe food and beverage specifically, so that's been doing very well for a long time. Maybe just give a taste of how do you see the market progressing from here. Is that still going to be a source of growth for you? Is there an opportunity for that to remain a nice contributor for the top line?
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We think it will. We have innovative products. We have a great relationship with customers. Our newer products are gaining share. So in both the foodservice business and in food and beverage manufacturing, we expect that to continue.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Okay, thank you very much.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right.
John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Randall J. Hogan - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, thank you very much for your questions. Operator, you can give the call number or the replay number?
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's Pentair Q2 2015 earnings conference call. This call will be available for replay beginning at 12:00 Eastern Time today through 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 28. The conference ID number for the replay is 77788152. Again, the conference ID number for the replay is 77788152. The number dial for the replay is 800-585-8369. Again, the dial-in number for the replay is 800-585-8369. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President of Investor Relations Randy Hogan - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Scott Graham - Jefferies Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer Brian Drab - William Blair
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Jody and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q1 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Jim Lucas, VP of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Jody. And welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2015 earnings call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and CEO; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2015 performance, as well as our second quarter and full year 2015 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow up and get back in the queue for further questions in order to ensure everyone an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let me just begin on Slide 4 with a summary of how 2015 has started and how we see Pentair positioned for the remainder of 2015. As we announced two weeks ago this year has started off significantly below our initial forecast. We expected most of our energy related businesses to be challenged this year given the dramatic decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014. But a global capital spending freeze and its impact on industrial businesses was not foreseen. We do not see this to be a Pentair specific issue as this broad-based decline was across virtually every business, every geography and every market. In fact, the only geography of growth we saw was North America. We believe there is broad, economic uncertainty that is contributing to delays in our customer’s spending habits, and we have felt this in both large projects and some MRO business. As a result of the dramatic impact of FX translation and a significantly slower start to the year we are now taking a cautious position on any expected recovery this year. So we have gone back to our cost [paybook] and are working aggressively to adjust our cost structures accordingly. Our balance sheet remains healthy and we expect 2015 to still be a strong free cash flow year. We will continue to invest in M&A where appropriate while executing on costs. Given the uncertainty, we have rebuilt the plan to drive performance in 2015 to equal 2014. As a result we are adjusting our 2015 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $3.80 per share, making 2015 a pause year. We believe that Pentair is in attractive markets for the long term. We have detailed plans in place to work through the anticipated near-term challenges and we are executing them. Now let us turn to Slide 5 for a quick look at our key 2015 forecast assumptions. Given the significantly slower start to 2015 as a result of the global capital strike we are experiencing, we are now expecting our core sales for the year to decline 2 to 3 percentage points instead of growing 2% to 3%. Given the first quarter top line shortfall and its negative operating leverage, we could not adjust our cost structure quickly enough in Q1. But we still expect operating margins to expand roughly 50 basis points for the full year. We completed $200 million of share repurchases in January, and we’re still focused on our active M&A list in our most attractive businesses. John will outline in detail the cost actions being taken both variable and fixed as we adjust to the start of 2015. As a result of these actions, we are expecting roughly 40 million of repositioning benefits this year, an accumulative 100 million plus in 2016. Our balance sheet capacity is over 800 million. Although the external headwinds have worsened, we are focusing on the elements within our control. This includes getting more aggressive on cost actions, continuing to invest in differentiated growth, and as I mentioned, select M&A where appropriate. Now let us turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of our first-quarter results. This first quarter saw our core sales decline 4% as all verticals declined except Food & Beverage. The one geography that performed well was North America, but we saw weakness in all other key geographies, particularly in fast growth regions. As previously mentioned, FX was a significant headwind in the quarter. Given the sharper than anticipated volume declines, productivity and price were not enough to compensate and we saw adjusted operating income decline and margins contract in the quarter. Cash flow was a typical seasonal usage where we expect another strong free cash flow year, and expect significant improvements in sequential cash flow improvement. Now let us turn to Slide 7 for a more detailed look at the first quarter results. Our 4% core sales decline consists of 5 points of volume decline and one point of positive contribution from price. FX subtracted another 6%. Adjusted operating income declined 15% in the quarter and operating margins contracted 60 basis points, even though we continued to see lean sourcing actions and standardization efforts and G&A gained traction. We are accelerating our cost actions to adjust to the reality of the FX environment and lower core volumes, which should reverse this operating margin contraction. Now let us turn to Slide 8 for a review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. Valves & Controls has seen a fair amount of quarter to quarter volatility in its performance, and the first quarter saw both sales and orders fall double digits. North America was the one pocket of strength, particularly in processed and with LNG customers. But all other geographies were down with double-digit declines in fast growth regions as customers seem to be delaying and in some cases canceling projects. For the first quarter, Valves & Controls core sales declined 11% and FX translation was a further 8% headwind. Including significant adjustments due to currency translation the quarter ending backlog declined 4% sequentially following a 7% decline in the fourth quarter of 2014. Over half of this six-month backlog decline was the result of FX headwinds. Given that backlog is generally shippable in the next 6 to 12 months we feel it was prudent to adjust backlog for FX to give the most appropriate view of the state of the business. Core orders declined 15%, which we’ll discuss in more detail in the next slide. Total orders declined 22% while including negative FX translation. During the quarter we saw some customers [directed] delays of scheduled shipments, and this accelerated near the end of the quarter. We anticipate some delays and expedites in shipments every quarter. The first quarter saw an even greater amount of net delays than we are accustomed to seeing. We did not see a material increase in project cancellation. We are seeing more customers requesting delayed deliveries which is not surprising within oil and gas, but we have also seen in the process industries. The right half of the page shows first-quarter Valves & Controls operating profits and margins. While our lean sourcing and standardization continued to drive productivity within Valves & Controls, it was not enough to offset the volume drops in an already typically slow period, and FX translation also had some impact in the 30% drop in operating income. We are still making progress with our changed agenda and gross margins in Valves & Controls expanded as a result of strong productivity. So we continue to feel good about our efforts underway, including lean transformation and the OMT initiative within Valves & Controls. While the strong margins gains of the past two years are encouraging, there is much more to do. So we plan to go even more aggressively after the cost structure and getting results from where we are investing for growth. Now let us turn to Slide 9 for a look at the orders and backlogs for Valves & Controls. As you can see on Slide 9, Valves & Controls backlog is broken down into four key industries, three of which fall under our energy vertical, those being oil and gas, power and mining, and one in our industrial vertical, which is called [process here]. Orders were down double digits across all four industries in the quarter, while the impacts to our energy related businesses were not a surprise given the decline in oil prices, process order weakness was not expected and declined globally with North America the lone bright spot. We are not expecting orders to improve during 2015 as customers continue to re-evaluate existing projects and in their pipelines for planning projects. Although backlog has been hurt by the stronger dollar, we saw a decline in our backlog in real business terms as well. We will continue to focus on capturing shorter cycle MRO business, which has remained somewhat stronger than projects. While we do not expect the global capital strike to last forever, we are being cautious and are rightsizing to the current reality that Valves & Controls is likely to see top line pressure throughout the year. We continue to believe in the long-term prospects for Valves & Controls and the transformation underway. For the next several quarters we will be focused more on cost, while anticipating increasing price pressure on the existing business. Now let us move to Slide 10 for a look at flow and filtration solutions. Flow and filtration solutions saw a 13% top line decline. Its core sales fell 7% and FX translation was an additional 6% impact. All four verticals served by flow and filtration solutions saw a decline. Residential and commercial fell 11% as global weakness and destocking in some of our North American distributing channels impacted the top line. Infrastructure was down 14% as municipalities continued to delay spending, although we have remained more disciplined on pricing and believe we are seeing declines greater than in the served market. Food & Beverage was down 2% as the strength in global beer and diary was not enough to offset declines in agriculture spending. Segment income declined 16%, but margins contracted only 40 basis points despite the volumes, FX and mix drags during the quarter. Productivity readout was strong and we believe we continue to have a long runway for improvement in margins within flow and filtration solutions. Given the weaker top line environment we plan to go after more than just G&A standardization opportunities and accelerate our rightsizing efforts within this segment. Now let us move to Slide 11 for a look at Water Quality Systems. Water Quality Systems was a bright spot in the quarter with core sales growth of 4%. The growth within Water Quality Systems was not a surprise given that they are over 70% in North America and mostly serve the residential and commercial, including beverage verticals, which have been our two growth verticals recently. Our aquatic systems business started strongly and we believe it is well positioned entering the pool season. Our foodservice business continued to grow globally with core sales up 11% in the quarter. The right half of the page shows first quarter Water Quality Systems operating profits and margins. Segment income grew 3% and margins expanded 40 basis points to 16.1%. Price and productivity offset inflation and new product development investments continue. Our outlook for Water Quality Systems remains positive and we expect to see solid growth and margin expansion for the full year. Let us now turn to Slide 12 for a look at technical solutions results. Technical solutions saw core sales grow 1%, which was offset by a 6% FX translation headwind. Energy was up 2% as our heat management solutions business entered the year with strong backlog, including two larger projects beginning to shift. We will watch orders closely as the year progresses. Industrial was flat as our equipment protection business was impacted by delays in industrial spending that occurred in the quarter. Residential and commercial grew nicely and despite a tough comp, infrastructure also was up modestly driven by telecom. The right half of the page shows first-quarter technical solutions operating profits and margins. Segment income declined 8% and margins contracted 70 basis points to 18.4%. With the absence of price in the quarter, productivity was not enough to offset inflation and mix further hampered the income and margin performance during the quarter. Negative FX transaction cost were a factor in margins as strong growth in Canada, combined with the strengthening dollar, squeezed margins on our U.S.-made products. Following the end of the first quarter, we closed a small bolt on acquisition within technical solutions for our thermal building solutions business, which we believe has attractive growth opportunities. We have five criteria around acquisitions and this transaction met all five. The deal made strategic sense. It made financial sense. We were the right buyers. We have a detailed integration plan, and we know who will lead that integration. Process and Technical Solutions will be addressed in cost structure as a result of FX and mix, we believe we have interesting M&A tunnel for this segment. Now let us turn to Slide 13 for a review of our key verticals and our expectations for growth in 2015. Given the difficult start to the year, we have adjusted our expectations across all verticals. Starting with industrial, our largest vertical representing roughly 29% of sales, we now expect core sales to decline 4% to 6% in 2015. While Valves & Controls continued to see strength in sales with its North American customers in the first quarter, the rest of the globe saw a sharp decline in orders. The remaining parts of Valves & Controls, industrial business, also saw weakness including industrial gas and shipbuilding. We now expect the channel and customer destocking to continue throughout the year and pricing is something that we are actively managing. Core sales in our second largest vertical, residential and commercial, are still expected to grow 2% to 3% for the full year. But the slow start to the year has lead us to shave a couple of points off of our expected full-year growth rate. We believe that our aquatics systems business within Water Quality Systems is well positioned for another strong pool season in North America, and while a smaller piece of our vertical we expect improvements in non-residential construction as well. Roughly 10% of our sales are within our Food & Beverage vertical, which we expect to grow 5% to 7% on a core basis for the full year. This is on the anticipated strength of our global beverage and food service businesses. Food service had a great first quarter and should stay strong through 2015. While core sales growth in beverage is also expected to be strong, this is a global business and we expect to be negatively impacted by FX translation. The strength in beverage is in both beer and diary. Within Food & Beverage, we also include the agriculture related businesses in flow and filtration solutions. While we are driving differentiated growth in agriculture, it will likely continue to be a drag on growth in our Food & Beverage vertical. Within our infrastructure vertical, which accounts for less than 10% of our overall sales, we are now anticipating a modest decline in core sales for 2015. We knew our electronics protection business in the technical space had tough comparisons to start the year, but we are encouraged to see modest growth in the first quarter. We expect our infrastructure related businesses within flow and filtration solution, serving global desalination, water treatment and water supply to continue to be challenged. While it appears the municipal desalination markets have bottomed, we do not expect any recovery this year. Within North America the infrastructure break and fix business, we expect it to remain mixed with continued price competition. We now expect energy core sales to decline 6% to 8% for the year. This includes oil and gas, power and mining industries for us. The upstream business has been as weak as we had anticipated. We now expect to continue the pause in shorter cycle downstream business with capital spending delays or reductions have spread to midstream and downstream as well. We saw continued strength in North America in LNG, but the majority of global oil and gas was as weak if not weaker than we are expecting entering 2015. Let us now turn to Slide 14 for a look at our updated 2015 adjusted EPS guidance. As we take into account the challenging start to the year and the pause in global capital spending we are adjusting our guidance to approximately $3.80 per share from a range of $4.10 to $4.25 per share. The volume shortfall will not be overcome in one quarter. We are taking corrective cost actions that we expect to begin to read out in the second half of 2015, and also benefit 2016. Begum not foresee the industrial pause continuing indefinitely, but until we see customers beginning to spend again, we will remain cautious. In the meantime, we plan to continue to invest for the long term. Not all of our businesses have been impacted in the short term and with our strong balance sheet and cash flow we will be thoughtful as we look at M&A opportunities. With that, I'll turn the call over to John to give more details on the cost actions we are taking and provide additional color on the outlook. John?
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide number 15 titled 2015-2016 cost actions. As Randy mentioned, we faced increasing headwinds in the first quarter and we are working to align our cost structure appropriately. To start, we saw a strengthening dollar create both top line and bottom-line headwinds. With euro at $1.07, we anticipate a $65 million operating income headwind for 2015. If the Euro were to move to parity against the dollar, it would create another $10 million impact on operating income. We’re not planning for the dollar to weaken, in fact we are assuming that this will be the new norm for the year, and are now implementing cost out actions to mitigate the translation impact on the go forward basis. If the dollar weakens, we would expect to benefit, but we’re not counting on it. The cost actions will primarily be in Valves & Controls and flow and filtration solutions, the two segments hit the hardest by the global capital spending pause. We expect these actions will yield $40 million in savings in 2015, an accumulative $100 million plus in 2016. We plan to continue to continue to focus on G&A and variable labor, but we are also expanding our cost actions through our fixed cost structure. Please turn to Slide 16 labeled 2015 current outlook. This slide looks at the changes that have occurred since we last updated our forecast in early February. We experienced lower than expected volumes in two of our larger verticals, energy and industrial, and we are now anticipating pricing to be flat for the year and down for the next three quarters. As our Valves & Controls segment is expected to see increase in pricing pressure as the year progresses. Within the residential and commercial vertical, we expect another strong year in North America, while anticipating residential spending around the globe at slower levels. We believe that Food & Beverage will continue to be a bright spot, where we expect benefits from commercial expansion. We do not expect the negative operating leverage from lower volumes to be offset immediately, and the translation impact discussed previously has become more challenging. We plan to continue to drive productivity and expect the cost savings from our actions to read out in the second half to help mitigate some of the top line challenges. We still expect operating margins to expand approximately 50 basis points to 15% for the full year. Please turn to Slide 17 labeled balance sheet and cash flow. Quarter-ending debt was approximately $3.4 billion or $3.3 billion on a net debt basis, inclusive of global cash on hand. In the first quarter, we returned 258 million in cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. We completed $200 million in share repurchases during the quarter and we have $800 million left under our current $1 billion authorization. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 10.9%. The first quarter has historically been a seasonal usage of cash, just as it was this year, but we expect strong cash flow during the second quarter and throughout the second half of the year. Please turn to Slide 18 labeled 2015 forecasted cash flow usage and capital allocation. For the full year, we are expecting free cash flow of approximately $900 million or greater than 120% of net income. We anticipate returning nearly $200 million to shareholders through additional dividends for the remainder of the year. We remain committed to our investment grade rating and will remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach. We expect to continue to fund organic growth opportunities and that capital expenditures will be slightly ahead of depreciation. We still see select opportunity for M&A in some of our businesses. If these deals do not materialize as we get later into the year we will consider incremental share repurchases. Please turn to Slide 19 labeled Q2 2015 Pentair outlook. For the second quarter we expect core sales to decline approximately 3% to 4% and FX to present a 7% headwind. On a core basis, we expect Valves & Controls sales to be down 13% to 15% based on their shippable backlog and what we expect to be further project delays. Flow and filtration solutions core sales are anticipated to be down 3% to 4% on slower industrial and infrastructure business. Water Quality Systems core sales are expected to grow 6% to 7% as we enter the peak period for North American residential, which includes another expected strong pool season. Finally, technical solutions core sales are anticipated to be up 3% to 5% in the strength of energy backlog in our heat management solutions business, and some expected increase in industrial capital spending as the quarter progresses. We’re expecting adjusted operating income to be down roughly 10% and adjusted operating margins to contract 10 basis points to 15.1%. Below the operating line, we anticipate our tax rate to be approximately 23%, net interest and other to be around $18 million and the share count to be approximately 182 million. Our second quarter adjusted EPS range of $0.95 to $0.96 represents a decline of roughly 6% year-over-year. As mentioned previously, we are expecting a strong quarter of cash flows. Please turn to Slide 20 labeled full year 2015 Pentair outlook. For the full year we are now expecting adjusted EPS of roughly $3.80 as the cost actions we’re implementing in the second quarter not anticipated to be enough to fully offset the volume shortfall and negative FX translation impact that hit our first quarter results. For the full year, we expect core sales to decline 2% to 3% and FX to be around a 6% headwind. Valves & Controls sales are anticipated to be down 8% to 10% on a core basis. Flow and filtration solution sales are expected to be down 4% to 6% on a core basis. Water Quality Systems sales are anticipated to be up 6% to 7% on a core basis and technical solution sales are expected to be up 2% to 4% on a core basis. We anticipate growth in our residential and commercial and Food & Beverage verticals with energy and industrial decline expected to continue. We expect adjusted operating income to be down 5% for the year and adjusted operating margins to expand 50 basis points to 15%. We will continue to right size our cost structure for the economic realities we are facing. It will take time for those savings to begin to materialize. We expect overall corporate costs to be approximately $100 million, net interest and other to be around $73 million, and our full-year tax rate around 23%, and the share count for the full year to be approximately 182 million. Adjusted EPS is expected to be roughly flat in the pause year we are anticipating. Finally, we expect another strong year of free cash flow of approximately $900 million or greater than 120% of net income. Jody, can you please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Randy Hogan:
Good morning.
John Stauch:
Hi Deane.
Deane Dray:
Yeah, maybe we could start with the comments about the global CapEx spending freeze, and maybe take us through the cadence of the months and I am particularly interested in the comments regarding how it may have spilled into some of the MRO spending and maybe this was part of the destocking comment in your – the negative [Ph] announcement, so could we start there please?
Randy Hogan:
Yeah, thanks Deane. Basically if you take the industrial market that we follow most closely is of course our equipment protection business, and actually industrial and that business, industrial showed some increasing weakness in Valves & Controls as the quarter went. But really we saw a pronounced decline in March in the other industrial businesses, the sell through distribution, which we believe is some destocking and uncertainty as the knock-on effect, which we can see in valves as we saw the knock-on from oil and gas into some slowdowns in other projects and delays in other projects. So we think there is a bit of a knock on effect and uncertainty that has caused this and we do believe this destocking, we even saw some destocking in the residential and commercial side in flow. So we do believe that distribution has taken a cautious turn in their re-ordering in industrial and in some places in residential and commercial.
Deane Dray:
And then could you expand on that comment on energy regarding seeing the softness starting to work its way into your midstream and downstream businesses, I mean, clearly everyone has been set up for an upstream headwind, and that seems to be playing out a little bit earlier, but could you expand on the comments and any specifics regarding the midstream and downstream activities?
Randy Hogan:
Well, we – particularly the downstream is bigger for us than upstream. So to see the oil and gas decline that we did and when we look at the projects we see a slowing in the orders rate across the board really. Our hit rate seems to be okay. But with the exceptions we pointed out, process, which we count as industrial, in North America was pretty good, but we saw a slowdown in process. In the fast growth markets we saw a slowdown in refining in the fast growth markets and now a lot of that is in specific countries like Brazil, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise. But we do think there is a knock-on effect and I think you can see it in oil and gas companies, who are basically constraining capital and [Indiscernible] constrains capital it is a blunter instrument than just precisely focused on projects. We also saw MRO decline, you know, single digits, but MRO sales in Valves & Controls generally has been up every quarter, and we actually saw a decline, which to us feels like a – obviously you have to maintain things. So, it feels like a slowdown in general capital spending to us in the downstream. We will see how this – if they see it too.
Deane Dray:
And just last one from me related to the energy side, Randy you made some comments about delays versus cancellations in some of the orders and maybe just expand there by your major energy businesses, you know, how much are delays?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, it was a comment about Valves & Controls, primarily the – our Valves & Controls ship later in projects cycles. And so, you know, every quarter we see projects get pushed out some because they don’t want the valves onsite until they are ready for them. But also usually there is some that get pulled in because projects speed up and slow down. So we always see a mix of delays and expedites in a quarter. We basically saw no expedites in the quarter. I would say delays were probably 20% higher than normal, but there were no expedites to offset it and that to me – that feels like to us just a general slowing on project execution. We have had some specifics, which I won’t get into, people exploring, we have had a few cancellations, but I can’t say that that is any – that is abnormal. You know, orders that we thought were going to go the projects we cancelled. But we are very cautious as to that was my comment about customers reviewing project pipelines. I think mergers in the industry affect that and the customers industry affects that and as they look at adjusting the capital obviously they’re going to take some projects off the list.
Deane Dray:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs, your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you and good morning Randy, John and Jim. So, my first question clearly oil and gas is weaker you’ve got this contingent effect it’s still over into industrial Randy you mentioned in your prepared comments that the delays accelerated in March. And so, I’m just trying to get, I’m trying to understand I guess, when I think about your organic growth guidance for the year of down 2 to down 3, your complicated puffer organic growth is down 4 in the first quarter and just trying to get the sense for what gives you the confidence that you’ll get some improvement as the year progresses?
John Stauch:
Joe just to clarify its John. I think some of the Valves and Controls as we call Q3 and Q4 were not great quarters for us, so we started to see some of the slowdown from the order shortfalls in last Q1 and Q2, start to work its way in Q3 and Q4. So, some of those comps and Valves and Controls gets a little bit better, same thing in industrial (indiscernible) business solid backlog that we feel comfortable is going to continue to shift throughout the year. And then, residential commercial has been strong as Randy said in Water Quality Systems and we also start to anniversary some of the tougher headwinds in our flow and filtration solutions. I think we’ve looked at the organic growth and although we don’t see if we took a 90 day rolling average of historical sales we don’t see that improving throughout the year. We do think that gives us a little bit easier comparison to the back half of the year.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Do you guys have any clarity at this point on the destocking and when you would anticipate some of the headwinds associated with destock to subside?
John Stauch:
We think it continues in the Q2 for us, I mean, we look at some of the same bell weathers that you guys do in the industrial distribution side, I think they saw the slowdown a little later then we did and they started to correct as Randy mentioned and that started to work its way through our March shipments, we expect that to continue through April and May.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. And then, I guess one last question on – I’ll pass it up. On the restructuring side I applaud your efforts to take cost out just given the economic backdrop, can you just maybe provide some more clarity on the run rate that 100 million plus in 2016 just given the restructuring actions that you have 60 million this year, does that bake into some of the restructuring actions that you took last year as well because the magnitude of that number just seems like a big number and the payback seems quick?
John Stauch:
Yes. These are new actions incremental to the things we’re working already in synergies and in fact as Randy and I met with the business precedence we’re still hopeful and our sales people are still hopeful that things going to improve throughout the year, we’re trying to be hopeful as we were trained, hope it’s not a plan and we think our view now is react to this new economic uncertainty and take the cost out. So which you’re seeing in G&A and then some entry into footprint actions finally in our Valves and Controls and other businesses where we can get after some product line moves and get ourselves right sized and competitive. As Randy mentioned in his remarks and I followed up, I mean, we now expect pricing to be the new norm in Valves and Controls and so even the projects that we’re anticipating wining we’re expecting to come at lower margins and so we’ve to accelerate our competiveness to continue to bring those projects in at the same drop through that we anticipated for.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, helpful guys, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan, your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
Hi guys, good morning.
John Stauch:
Good morning Steve.
Steve Tusa:
So, just on the pricing dynamics, I guess this is just happening in Valves and the orders, just happening a little bit faster than expected in Valves and Controls, I mean, is pricing, are these orders kind of going to impact ’16 now or is this say kind of reshuffling in the backlog such as becoming more, it was longer cycle on the way up and it’s now shorter cycle on the way down I guess. And then, from that perspective prices already kind of stating here in that business in revenues, so I mean, how we think about pricing in the back half of the year does that actually go negative in the back half of the year in Valves?
John Stauch:
Let me talk about 2000 – we think, we were very cautious on orders through the year which we think will effect Valves and Control sales in 2016. So, we don’t see a change really in sort of things going faster or slower, I think it’s going to be a tough year on order and we’re going to do everything we can do to win in a discipline way which will put switching the price. We already see pricing and you already heard about what customers are asking in terms of pricing. It might not just be in Valves and Controls, I mean, one of the things that effects does is if you’re, the example I used in – which was a surprise, it won’t be a surprise next time in terms of the transactional impact of effects that was an impact in our technical solutions business. Technical solutions really did pretty well in the quarter but we had a few surprises that being one that was a Canadian dollar transaction in the U.S. dollar cost and that hits prices. And as competitors as foreign, as non-U.S. competitors start using their change in cost advantage, price advantage we expect the challenging price environment in more than just Valves and Controls.
Steve Tusa:
So when think about kind of this total price of Pentair going negative in the second half of this year?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. We do think it goes slightly negative still in some of our distribution business we still expect to gain normal price increase and we have those through and they’ve been accepted but we would expect any project and certainly areas where we got a bid on a cost to the price negative to the back half of the year.
John Stauch:
We’ve good material productivity that’s hung up on the balance sheet so that will get more productivity as we go through the year too which will help offset some of that price. But, we think it’s a more cautious plan to assume, we’re going to see tougher pricing environment.
Steve Tusa:
And then, I think you said in Valves and Controls next year, just kind of a high level 100 to 200 basis points as kind of not out at the question, I mean, as you move through the quarter here and assume you’re just seeing on your dashboard, I mean, is that now maybe a little too aggressive, I mean, could we see more, we did – price decline in the long time in any of the markets we cover so the magnitude is always kind of tough, could it be worse in that do you think in ’16?
John Stauch:
I don’t know, I think we’re – to address the previous question, we’re getting after the cost in aggressive way to continue to be competitive, so we’re anticipating a tougher environment on the quotes and we’ve got to have more cost competitiveness and so we’re looking to our suppliers to participate as we’re being after participate and we’re also looking on our own cost structure and trying to be more competitive within that cost structure. So, the goal here is to continue to improve margins even with the decline of the revenue and we’re going to have to be very aggressive to accomplish that.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. One last quick question on free cash, what’s kind of the key lever to ramp that cash flow throughout the year, what’s kind of the one or two things that you’re looking at to play out because it’s little bit weaker than expected in the first quarter?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. It’s right sizing the inventory in our working capital levels to the new one.
John Stauch:
Yes. Basically we’re relying on working capital inventories to support the higher sales level and needs to be corrected and we know how.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. So that’s a negative for margins going forward then?
John Stauch:
That’s baked in.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, thank you, thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Bernstein, your line is open.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning. Just I want to stick on pricing and margin for a minute, we are entering this environment you had significant material deflation I think as a tailwind as well as pricing up until now has been helpful. Now those are both going against you and my question is given that you don't know how long this will last the restructuring that you have already taken and that is going to be fairly aggressive here how much more can you do there because there seems to be some risk to the margin opportunity going forward?
John Stauch:
Yes Steve, I do want to be – I want to clarify something. I think we expect we have done really well in material productivity we expect material productivity to do even better going forward. We can see that and what we call the deferred productivity as Randy said what’s done in Q1, but its hung up in balance sheet and we work its way in a positive way throughout the rest of the year. We’re continuing to partner with our suppliers to anticipate these potential pricing headwinds and the pricing is an anticipated pricing. It’s not realized so we are expecting that environment is going to be tougher and we are managing it appropriately as when I want you to take away. In addition we are saying if it continues to get more competitive we have to be more competitive and therefore the other actions that we are taking to make sure the long term our margins are still very high.
Randy Hogan:
On the comment about – concerned about cost cut getting into growth we are very cautious about touching our growth resources but what we are doing is, I am personally redoubling my efforts with our platform, we’re using our precedence to make sure that those investments we made are paying off. I didn't see enough read out of some of them in the first quarter.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And I think it’s also leads into sort of the broader question on M&A that you put out there which is clearly you are on the hunt for attractive M&A at this point in the current environment. But how are you thinking that about that as well given all the pressures that you are seeing yourself and what makes an attractive acquisition given the weakness that you are seeing out there?
John Stauch:
One thing is that given how difficult and uncertain things are sometimes opportunities become available that weren't available before so it’s actually a good time to be looking but to your question how are we sure that we are ready, we that's one of the reason I put in the comments that we did in the prepared remarks on the small acquisition we just made, -- this is a good example, our thermal building solutions businesses is a growth business. We have some great innovations there and had a great year in growth last year. We expect to have a great year growth this year. This business built on is augment that are offering gives us more to put through our distribution channel. So, it fit those five questions, it fit our strategy well so there are strategy to drive growth, profitable growth it fit it well. The financials may think, we were able to do that deal with the comfortable set of financials that we know we can execute. We were the right buyers. We have the best fit that's why the financials work the best. And the last two things, we don't do a deal unless one we understand how we are going to integrate into the company and then two, we know who is going to in-charge be -- the in-charge of the integration and we trust them to execute it well. And so we are going to keep that – keep to that discipline and make sure that might start at the bottom and say which businesses are ready, which businesses are more strategically ready and capacity ready and we always do that but I think you should all count on this to continue to put that first.
Steven Winoker:
And is Australia process on track the divestitures?
John Stauch:
Yes.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. Alright. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Hey. Good morning. I am sorry to beat the old dead horse here but if we can just go to slide 13 where we have the forecast for organic by vertical. The energy number has only really been taken down 1 point versus two months ago and we are talking about more concerns about pricing and moving into mid stream and downstream which I think many of us did expect that but nevertheless I am just wondering why we are only down 1 point incrementally from the two months ago guidance particularly given the order scenario that was laid out on an earlier slide?
John Stauch:
Yeah its fair question. Thanks for asking it. I think its couple of things and couple of factors in here, Valves and Controls is experiencing more challenging entering into environment, we are also experiencing some key wins in technical solution primarily around industrial e-trace so these are down streams and later projects there are productivity related and we are starting to see a pickup in that area. So, we do have a mix of where the projects are coming through our typical businesses but all in we have backlogs and those backlogs give us confidence that this is not only appropriate number that we will ship this year.
Randy Hogan:
Yeah we also don't think that the – we think - -we don't think the MRO declines on the first quarter this sounds like one orbit plan, is going to be as acute as it was in the third quarter, as it was in the first quarter.
Scott Graham:
Alright. Thank you. And the other – my follow-up would essentially be on the share repurchase so I know we are kind of back into the M&A hunt mode and all that which is great I think I am wondering though is that why would we wait on share repurchases given this environment. Do we, you say if we don't find anything then you are kind of – you buy shares sort of a guess that was implied for the second half of the year you have a ton of balance sheet capacity why would we wait for that?
John Stauch:
We feel optimistic. We have been working for fair amount of time as Randy said we have what we call platforms or businesses underneath the four segments that are high performing both in revenue and also on the operating side and we want to continue to feed the core and we have enough in the pipeline that would give us the feeling that we are going to execute on some of those throughout the year if in fact we don't feel that those are going to come through we are not going to execute clearly we would take a look again at share repurchases.
Randy Hogan:
Right I mean we can only use the part or one so if we can't use our M&A then we will have through that but if we use that when we won’t have M&A.
Scott Graham:
Right. Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Good morning guys.
John Stauch:
Hi Shannon.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Hey. Can you give a little more color on the geographic difference in Valves and Controls, I mean, you mentioned that the fast growth regions were getting hit the worse maybe a little more kind of specific countries or types of projects just being on there and then in terms of North America being the only piece up was that basically just L&G being the area strength that was there a more positive in North America beyond that?
John Stauch:
Starting with that North America was strong in process in industrial as well stronger and L&G was a nice pick up. We had a particular focus on North America and we have actually invested in coverage there and I think that actually helped in Valves and Controls when – few years ago when we first got into it, it looked like our coverage and our share in North America was weaker than it was in other so that's an investment that I think is actually has paid off a little bit. It’s obviously – somewhat by the overall trends. But on the fast growth side both China and Brazil we’re down significant double-digits in the quarter. And Brazil I guess isn’t that surprising, but China was more surprising than we expected and that was in chemicals as well as in oil and gas in industrial.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay. And then just maybe a follow-up on this global capital strike point, I mean, as you kind of made sense over the first quarter and talked to your customers what are the most cautious about or uncertain about that sort of driving the decision making is there one sort of macro concerns that's particularly weighing on people one or two things you tend here?
John Stauch:
Well, I think the oil and gas industry is one of the biggest drivers in capital spending in the world and I think it’s the uncertain here on the knock-on effect and there is a lot of cuts and there is a high degree of caution and uncertainty about – well, there is projects that are getting delayed and won’t get done but just concern about what all that mean we believe that is the fact and that's why we think destocking. When we see in industrial space where we kind of exclusively distributors we were pretty confident that there is destocking effect going on. But we also – we have seen delays in not just oil and gas we have seen continued delays in deferrals and power. And I think that has more to do with the general need for electricity and the fact that the economy generally is just buttering along in the world and electricity needs grow with the economy so we have had a lot of power projects that are just delayed, delayed, delayed and the fact that percent delays in the first quarter in power were in the projects that we tracked whereas the percent delays was high in oil and gas.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Randy Hogan:
And I would just add to that I think all the investment tasks could be considered now in the fact of where are the cost basis and while ago you wouldn't have thought of investing in Europe and look at the new competitive nature of how the European factories on the global basis are competitive again and all that gets paused to people to say where do I put my investment and what is my likely return is going to be. So I think there is a lot of uncertainty out there that needs to be worked through. I think we feel good that energy as long term is a great investment cycle and we are going to see that rebound and we also think the industrial cycle long term will rebound. We are not just planning for 2015.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Got it. Great. Thank guys. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning Randy, John, Jim.
John Stauch:
Morning.
Nathan Jones:
There has been a lot of talk about the pricing pressure that you guys are feeling and are planning on feeling, can you discuss a little bit more where the opportunities are for you to put pressure on your suppliers in terms of pricing to participate in the pain if you will?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think clearly global commodity prices are not increasing as Randy mentioned we don't want to use the word deflation yet but it feels like we are heading a little bit more into deflation area environment and so we are put our main suppliers on notice that we all have to work competitively to reduce our cost structures and certainly in the long cycle businesses we usually are participate in the “going in and asking everybody to participate with you” so we have our supply base primarily in those long cycle businesses that we certainly put on notice early, we tell them where we are in the quoting cycle and they are prepared, they being in the same headlines we all are and they know what’s coming so we just all have to be more productive and we all have to participate to win the orders.
Randy Hogan:
So couple of things, if I am just going to add to that is the decline in oil prices has led to some good declines in prices in resins. We want to make sure that we are getting the benefit of that. The change in FX means say we are buying something in dollars today if we can get it from supplier who is making in the Euros or the Canadian dollar that can be a transactional benefit to us. So, I mean that's those are the kind of things that we have been working as we said because of the productivity gets defer to the balance sheet to the shipment. So, I mean, we actually feel pretty good about our material productivity, we feel good about the actions our team is taking even beyond what they have already booked in the balance sheet.
John Stauch:
Nathan I think just to finalize this question I don't think this is unique to us and that's my point. I think the industry in itself is going to go through it together and so we are all going to be dealing with the same dynamics and I think we are prepared for it and we are anticipating to be prepared for it and we are making sure that all our partners are prepared for it.
Nathan Jones:
Okay and my follow-up you talked about increasing pricing pressure in Valves, you talked about the residential and commercial part of flow and filtration thinking you saw a greater than market decline due to holding price. Can you talk about where the decision or how you think about the decision to hold the price and lose share versus cut price to protect share in various parts of the business.
John Stauch:
To clarify the on the point about where we are being very discipline that's in water, that's in large pumps infrastructure. Large infrastructure pumps. It wasn't I might haven't – I am going to have it blend it together with a sentence before the residential and commercial but just to clarify that comment was about basically our large engineered flow pumps and they had loss on pricing, we felt took some things on lower margins so we changed that and we have more discipline now. We make those products in Europe. Those are more competitive we make those products in North America and in Mexico and well Mexico is good in North America is less competitive. So we are trying to keep pricing disciplines that reflect our margin goals but also where we make things in that infrastructure space. On the residential and commercial side, I would say we haven't really seen pricing pressure. We feel pretty good about that. There are some of the areas that were weaker in residential or not in North America, Europe and Middle East but we think Europe is actually showing some signs of life in residential and commercial that we didn't see it clearly in the first quarter. But we saw some promising signs. So, I would say that pricing is really more of a concern in energy and in industrial not in residential and commercial.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
I’m all set guys, my questions have been answered.
John Stauch:
Okay. Thanks Jeff.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg of Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Brian Konigsberg:
Yes. High good morning. Couple of more on Valves and Controls just when it comes to the MRO and slowing that you noted are you seeing any in the customer base trying to in-source that service component to try to save cost or is that economically beneficial for the customer to do?
John Stauch:
Right. I don't think, we haven’t seen any kind of trend in that regard at all because ours is mostly replacement in parts there is some service, in sort service but on the replacement which is replacing whole valves or whole servicing on existing valves that's I mean the parts for service valves. They have come back and our service revenue was not the issue. It was the parts and replacement valves that was down.
Brian Konigsberg:
Okay. That makes sense. And also just on the pricing front are you seeing re-pricing of existing backlog or is it that the pricing pressure really on the new bids that you are pursuing?
Randy Hogan:
New bids only.
Brian Konigsberg:
New bids only. Okay and then lastly are you seeing any trends where for larger projects you are seeing the customer base or potentially EMC substitute start to substitute maybe some of the domestic higher quality suppliers of Valves and Controls with – maybe in some of the non-critical applications with some of the lower cost and potentially lower quality suppliers potentially out of Asia?
John Stauch:
We have seen that before the decline in oil prices, we saw some more uses on – particularly on with close of the commodity products throughout the more commodity products and we expect that particularly where companies go to the EPCs for fixed bids. The EPCs have for some time used that as a focus to try to drive profit into their box frame. So that doesn’t always pay off in launch in Valves – don't work but we have seen that in the Middle East. We have seen that in Asia for a long time and we expect that will just continue.
Brian Konigsberg:
That's it from me. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab of William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian Drab:
Hey good morning. There is one more left I guess. You talked about the 100 million in cost cuts and the timing of that and that we are going to see it I guess more likely in Valves and Controls infiltration but I am just having I don't know how much color you can give on it having trouble figuring out where do you find that much in cost cuttings when you are so successful in developing cost synergies and attacking that after the merger if there is any more detail around the types of moves you can make that will be helpful?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think the discipline is, we forecast where we are going to be in organic growth and we certainly look at right sizing labor and the variable cost associated with what those declines would be and then we also take a look at our fixed cost structures and our plans on where we want to be on standardization and we accelerate those based upon where we are on our ratios I mean when you are declining you got to hold margin and to hold margin you got to take your cost out at the rate of sales and then sum. So again we are – we have $6.5 billion in the company in sales and when you take a look at this as a percentage overall cost we are still relatively modest as far as the cost take out on the percentage cost and we have been pretty clear that the more we saw on the standardization front the more opportunities we actually saw in front of it.
Randy Hogan:
The way we look at it is we benchmark against the best and you can look at our businesses and you can see two of our GBUs that do not have margins close to the best of the peers and that would be on filtration solutions GBU in our Valves and Controls GBU. So these are not plans that we invent in the moment. These are long range plans that we accelerate it. The – we have ambitions to get to the valves and control business to be the best among the bests in right margin so that's a roadmap that we have contemplated for some time and it’s just the matter of in this environment that you accelerate and we have done that before.
Brian Drab:
Right. What's the long term target there Randy for that business if you could remind me.
Randy Hogan:
Well we have talked in Valves and Controls I mean I don't want people to think I am hallucinating given the first quarter we just had you know valves and controls was well above 15% margin we got it to 45 with lots of more opportunities. So we have talked about a number of well north of 15 but I don't want to give that again because I think it might lack credibility right now.
Brian Drab:
Understood and then John what percentage of your cash is broad versus in the U.S. today?
John Stauch:
Well, I mean two roughly – keep in mind we are outside the United States, so it’s not as relevant but we have roughly $100 million of cash that we hold in any given time under 150 and most of that is international are outside the U.S.
Brian Drab:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer, your line is open.
Christopher Glynn:
Yes thanks. Hey good morning. So you made an effort to sort of ring-fence the price pressure dynamic. How do you feel about that exercise of being able to ring fence it in the guidance?
John Stauch:
I am – I guess Chris I would say again we don't think it’s going to be unique to us and we think we are in the forward looking piece of it and I think if you are in this industry and space as you are not anticipating and I think it’s going to be a challenge later and so we feel like we have pushed the business to accept the reality of where we are and to get on with the solutions that would be required to still maintain competitiveness and bake the margins that we expect within that environment. We are hopeful we’re wrong, but I think the worse case is if we are wrong we feel like there is upside to it. I wouldn't want to be anticipating it not coming and then have to rely on the back half of the year to take the cost out. So, I think the fact that we are dealing with it now and right sizing where we think the businesses are, I think it’s going to put us in much better position for 2015 and 2016.
Christopher Glynn:
Fair enough and then just quickly the MRO side I think would be debt pressure more concentrated in the first quarter could you just elaborate briefly on that?
Randy Hogan:
Well, I mean most MROs is maintenance related and you can defer maintenance for a little while but you can't defer it forever and I mean there are – these are industries that care a lot about safety and so we believe that its MRO side is one that should be at least zero, and it wasn't it was negative and it has been positive right up until the first quarter. So that's why I mean I kind of view it as the same thing of destocking in distribution that can't go on forever.
Christopher Glynn:
Right. It makes sense. Okay. Thanks.
Randy Hogan:
Was that last question or – okay one more question. Thanks.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski of Buckingham Research, your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi good morning guys and thanks for taking question. Just back on the comment on MRO Randy, if you can help me out on Valves and Controls it looks like first half to second half there is about maybe 500, 600 basis point acceleration in core growth actually looks like the comp gets a little tougher so maybe from your earlier comment Jim and I can follow up on the math there but how much of that acceleration would you call MRO kind of normalizing versus some visibility have in the backlog just trying to dimension out some of the drivers there?
Randy Hogan:
Yes, I think it’s right sizing the shippable backlog and timing that out I mean I think there is most certainty as you move into Q2, Q3 and Q4 with what that backlog produces. We are not expecting a significant order rate in the back half of the year to be helping our revenues this year and we think you can't unless you are going to cancel the job you can't push these projects out for a while some of these are so far along and that will be – we’re pretty confident that we ship, it’s just the matter of the timing of when they are going to ship. So clearly we are taking a look at current run rate and you can look at the current run rates that we are seeing in Q1 and Q2 and take a look at the seasonality bumps that we normally see we are not expecting those seasonality bumps that usually happen to Q3 and Q4 at the full year capital projects finish out to be consistent with where they were in prior years.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Okay. I guess if you have to think about it backlog visibility versus MRO normalization half and half, 60:40?
John Stauch:
We are probably most confident about the MRO which you know in any given years call it a billion dollar of business and we feel like that's within a deviation certainly going to be closed to right around where it was last year if not slightly better on a core basis. And then, the projects are coming out of the shippable backlog from that shipment timing.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got you. Alright. Thanks John.
Randy Hogan:
Alright. Thank you all.
Jim Lucas:
Alright thank you. And Johnny if you can give the replay number.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's earning conference call. This call will be available for replay beginning at 11 o'clock central time today April 21, 2015 to midnight on May 29, 2015. The conference ID number for the replay is 22709435. The number to dial for the replay is 8558592056. And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Lucas - Vice President of Investor Relations Randy Hogan - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Shannon O'Callaghan - UBS Scott Graham - Jefferies Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Elisa and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q4 2014 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Jim Lucas, you may begin your conference.
Jim Lucas:
Thanks, Elisa. And welcome to Pentair's fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our fourth quarter 2014 performance, as well as our first quarter and full year 2014 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and 10-Q in today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference to these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and follow up and get back in the queue for further questions in order that everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randy Hogan :
Thanks, Jim. And good morning, everyone. Let me just begin with the summary of 2014 on Slide 4. As we highlighted during our outlook call in December, we are very pleased with the integration of Flow Control and our progress for last two years demonstrates the power the Pentair integrated management system or PIMS as a differentiating tool for integrating acquisitions. We are very pleased with how the company has come together and one Pentair culture has been firmly established. Yes, we know the best is still to come. In 2014, we delivered 2% core sales growth which we recognize as mid- pack at best. But our 160 basis points the margin expansion, 24% adjusted EPS growth and very strong free cash flow clearly places us in the upper quartile of performance last year compared to our peer group. In addition, we returned $1.4 billion to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, a very solid year indeed. While the market environment remains challenging, we further simplified the business and consolidated GBU. We are more closely aligned around channels solutions than ever, we have structured our four business units as reporting segments allowing even more strategic alignment. 2014 was another good year for Pentair. We built momentum on our internal execution to drive shareholder value in 2015 and beyond. Now let's turn to Slide 5 for a quick look at our key 2015 forecast assumptions. Lots changed in the world since we provided initial 2015 outlook just last December. In our initially EPS guidance we provided a list of key variables that could impact the low, mid and high end of the range. Some of these have gotten better but unfortunately some more critical factors have gotten more negative. The further fall in oil prices is rightly came under the lot of attention with many other companies have indicated the ongoing strengthening dollar has created substantial foreign exchange headwinds as well. In mid December we forecasted an FX headwind of roughly $0.10 per share. This headwind is now doubled as the dollar further strengthened against most currencies. We've not sat by idly, and have continue to go after further cost structure resulting in recognizing additional restructuring in the fourth quarter as we've positioned for a continued push to achieve top line growth. These external challenges are also reflected in our core sales growth outlook, which is now targeted to be 2% to 3% down from 2% to 4%. To point out the top line is a response to the reality of substantial uncertainty in our energy vertical due to oil and gas. We've forecasted $200 million also buyback for 2015 and that is already been completed. Our balance sheet capacity remains over $1 billion and we will continue to remain disciplined in our capital allocation as we build an active M&A pipeline. Taking all these into consideration, we are adjusting our 2015 EPS guidance to a range of $4.10 to $4.25 from a range of $4.20 to $4.35, with a dime adjustments being solely related to the increase FX headwind. John will cover the 2015 outlook in greater detail later in the call. It is important for us to be realistic about the economic environment of the world day while we continue to execute on the elements within our control at a very high level. Now let's turn to Slide 6 for discussion of our fourth quarter results. We delivered a strong fourth quarter with the core sales growth of 2% which is in line with our forecast. We saw continued strength in our Residential and Commercial and Food & Beverage vertical while Industrial improved in the second half and appeared to build momentum entering the new year. Technical Solutions had another strong quarter with 7% core sales growth and Process Technologies also delivered strong core sales growth of 5%. We delivered 10% adjusted operating income growth, 160 basis points of margin expansion and 23% adjusted EPS growth. Free cash flow was very strong in the quarter and a full year as we generated nearly $900 million of full year free cash flow. We've represented 121% conversion of adjusted net income. This is a large part of Pentair's ongoing value proposition. Now let's turn to Slide 7 for more detail look at the fourth quarter results. Our 2% core sales growth consisted of one point of volume growth and one point of price. But FX was 4% headwind as a dollar strengthened later in the year. We are expecting this type of foreign exchange headwind to persist in 2015 with the first quarter facing a particularly tough comparison. The quarter's 10% adjusted operating income growth is also consistent with our long-term value proposition with price and productivity offsetting inflation. We saw inflation run fairly consistent throughout 2014 and raw material inflation may moderate, wage inflation is expected to persist. Our lean sourcing and standardization efforts continue to deliver, contributing to our 160 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter. The fourth quarter showed solid core sales growth which we believe demonstrates the diversification in our portfolio and our strong internal execution highlights our unwavering focus to over deliver on the elements within our control. Now let's turn to Slide 8 for review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. Values & Controls' fourth quarter sales declined 1% as we faced the very tough year-over-year comparison since the prior year Q4 included over $30 million of loan margin shipments out of the backlog. Including significant adjustments due to currency translation the quarter ending backlog declined 7% sequentially with over half of the decline a result of FX headwinds. Given the backlog is generally shippable in the next 6 to 12 months; we feel it's prudent to adjust backlog for FX to give the most appropriate view of the business. Core orders declined 6% which we will discuss in more detail in the next slide. Once again the sales results were mix for Valves & Controls with process up modestly, oil and gas down and power and mining both flat in the quarter. The right half of the page shows fourth quarter Valves & Controls' operating profit end margins. Although the top line had its fair share of volatility, the operating income performance within Valves & Controls has been very strong. Operating income grew 30% and operating margin expanded 470 basis points to 16.9%. While the comparable quarter's results were dragged down by the low margin shipments last year, Valves & Controls make tremendous progress in driving productivity as they build momentum in lean sourcing and standardization all part of PIMS. Now let's turn to Slide 9 for look at the orders and backlog for Valves & Controls. As you can see on slide 9, Valves & Controls' backlog is broken down in four key industries, three of which fall under our energy vertical, those are oil and gas, power and mining and one in our industrial vertical which the process business is. It's clearly been a lot of focus on our Valves & Controls business particularly its oil and gas exposure, 65% of the Valves & Controls is not oil and gas related. Orders remain volatile, core is growing in process and mining while they decline double digits in both oil and gas and power. The decline in oil and gas orders follow two quarters of orders growth was not unexpected given the dramatic decline in oil prices throughout the fourth quarter. Power and mining both continue to see evolved order pattern but excluding the negative impact of FX, backlog in these two smaller sub verticals appears to be stabilizing. Process orders showed small growth in the quarter and we continue to expect orders to grow in 2015 as the North American chemical build out continues. Valves & Controls' orders come later in the procurement cycle and projects that have already been commissioned continue to move forward, giving us confidence and some order momentum building in 2015. Now let's move to Slide 10 for look at our Process Technologies segment. Process Technologies achieved another strong quarter growth with 5% core sales growth overall with all key verticals contributing. Food and Beverage growth is 7% and spread across both our beverage and food services businesses and residential and commercial saw growth from both pool and residential filtration. The right half of the page shows fourth quarter Process Technologies' operating profit and margins. So while the top line showed strength once again, this is the second quarter in a row where incoming margin performances were challenged. We continue to see opportunities to drive lean and standardization within many of our filtration businesses and have combined these businesses with flow to focus on accelerating the pace of change. While price and productivity were not enough to offset inflation this quarter, we've taken the necessary root cause counter measures and are focused on driving the type of income growth and margin expansion we expect on the strong core sales growth performance. Now to move to Slide 11 for look at Flow Technologies. Flow Technology reported a core sales decline of 4%, half of which was attributable to our strategic decision to exit the big box channel and focus on a profitable pro channel. Despite this headwind our residential and commercial business showed a modest increase in the quarter. We are now pleased with our performance in industrial and infrastructure in the fourth quarter. We believe backlog is stabilized. While we do not anticipate this would read out fully in the first half of 2015, we do expect continuing improvement in both of these verticals within the segment as 2015 progresses. The right half of the page shows fourth quarter Flow Technologies' operating profits and margins. Operating income grew 5% and operating margins expand at 110 basis points to 10.3%. Flow Technologies delivered strong price and productivity while differentiating growth and improving mix should help continue the momentum we built to drive margins to higher performance level. Let's now turn to Slide 12 for look at Technical Solutions results. Technical Solutions had another fantastic quarter with 7% core sales growth led by energy and residential and commercial. For the first time this year Technical Solutions posted a small decline in infrastructure as comparisons for the electronics business began to get more challenging. Within energy, we saw strength once again in the Canadian oil and sand shipping and projects currently in the backlog. Our heat management solutions business is more than just oil and gas and we saw strong orders and backlog growth in the fourth quarter driven by two large projects. Residential and commercial benefited from continued growth in Europe and North America. Industrial growth of 6% was led by our North American equipment protection and North American heat management solutions businesses. The right half of the page shows third quarter Technical Solutions' operating profits and margins. Operating income grew 7% in the quarter and operating margin expanded 90 basis points to 22.9%. Our price and productivity initiatives continue to outpace inflation while core sales growth leverage is partially offset by increased FX headwinds during the quarter. Now let's turn to Slide 13 for review of 2014 full year results. In 2014, we delivered 2% core sales growth led by our Process Technologies and Technical Solutions segment. We completed our previous share buyback program during 2014. Adjusted operating income for the full year increased 13% and adjusted operating margin expanded 160 basis points to 14.5%. We made a lot of progress for last year's improving our operating margins but many opportunities remain to drive overall margin even higher. Free cash flow was nearly $900 million and represented 121% conversion of adjusted net income. I am pleased with our operating performance in 2014 and recognized we must continue to drive more consistent, predictable organic growth. Let's now turn to Slide 14 for look at our Oil and Gas profile. Pentair has narrowly diversified industrial company operating in five verticals. Just under 20% of our business is exposed to global oil and gas market and over 80% of the portfolio participates in other verticals where we believe growth exist today. We highlighted this part of our portfolio in December outlook call and wanted to remind our shareholders that even within oil and gas we are diversified, specifically we are 5% exposed to upstream, 5% midstream and 9% downstream on a total Pentair's sales basis. Our upstream and midstream exposure is mostly in our Valves & Controls segment and are split roughly 60:40 between new constructions and install base. The upstream portion is where we believe the greatest uncertainty exists today. Our downstream exposures will involve Valves & Controls and Technical Solutions. During the fourth quarter, we mentioned previously we saw strong orders and backlog growth in our heat management solutions business within Technical Solutions. While there has been some focus recently on the outlook for refining, we continue to see strong MRO activity that I have not seen any slowing in maintenance spending as our focus on the install base continues to gain traction. The continued volatility in oil prices which remain below $50 per barrel does create a level of uncertainty within 19% of our portfolio. So our focus for our growth is squarely on the other 81% of our portfolio where we have several areas of opportunity entering 2015. As shown on Slide 15, our overall 2015 core sales growth profile by vertical. As you can see on 15 starting with industrial, our largest vertical representing roughly 29% of sales. We are forecasting 3% to 5% core sales growth in 2015. Our Valves & Controls business is expected to see improving orders during the year in North America as expansion and process industries continues. Within Technical Solutions our North American equipment protection business saw improving order trends in the second half of 2014 and globalize ISM report remain positive and support our expectations in industrial will remain solid. Our second largest vertical, residential and commercial has been our bright spot for past couple of years. In 2015 should see momentum that momentum continues. This vertical represents approximately 27% of our sales with large portion of our residential and commercial business exposed replacing spending which remains positive. We've recognized that our big box exit within Flow Technologies creates some modest headwind for this vertical but overall we are forecasting 46% core sales growth in residential and commercial. Roughly 10% of our sales are within food and beverage vertical. Our agriculture related businesses are facing markets that are likely to be down overall again in 2015. But both or irrigation and crop spray businesses are expected to deliver differentiated growth to mitigate some of the market related headwinds. Our food service business is expected to continue to perform well expanding with customers globally while also further penetrating areas such as grocery stores and convenient stores. We believe our beverage business is well positioned with global customers in the beer industry and we expect to see more growth as our dairy business gains momentum. Within our infrastructure vertical which accounts for less than 10% of our overall sales, we are forecasting modest growth in 2015. Our electronics business and Technical Solutions faces tough comparison in the first half of the year but the business is focused on winning new opportunities. Within our advanced filtration business it appears to global desalination markets and water treatment and finally reached a bottom after prolonged hibernation. And we are encouraged to see order in the fourth quarter of 2014. Within our engineered flow business, our infrastructure backlog improved in the back half for 2014. And leads us to believe that after challenging first quarter this business should see growth return in the second half. In addition to our 19% in oil and gas, we have another 8% of our sales in power and mining within our energy vertical. For 2015, we now expect core sales in energy to be down 5% to 7% on a core basis. With the momentum we are seeing in a majority of our portfolio there is non energy related is expected to drive low single digit overall core sales growth in 2015. Let's now turn to Slide 16 for look at how we believe will driving shareholder value. Before I hand off the call to John, I wanted to focus on what we believe we are doing to drive shareholder value. Simply put, we remain focused on three areas. Organic growth, margin expansion and free cash flow and capital allocation. We've recognized in the last couple of years when the second and third performance quartile in organic growth. That's why we continue to sharpen the growth tools within our PIMS tools box. At the beginning of last year, we organized into 18 growth platforms under our four reporting segments, which provide us a better mechanism to prioritize investments across the enterprise. The platform focus allows us the ability to differentially fund and track growth actions on a more granular level within the businesses. While we cannot control the external economic environment, we are focused on driving differentiated growth in our most attractive businesses in our portfolio. That's already reading out in spots. Regarding margin expansion and free cash flow and capital allocation, we believe we have proven track record of success that places in the first quartile of performance, top of class. Over the last two years, we've expanded our adjusted operating margins over 300 basis points and we believe we have the proven play book to continue driving productivity and cost structure. Our free cash generation has increased dramatically for the last two years. We returned $2.3 billion to our shareholders through buyback and dividends for last two years. We remained disciplined in our capital allocation and our free cash flow is nearing $1 billion per year on an annual basis, allowing us more degrees of freedom than any other time in Pentair. All three components are important to driving shareholder value. We are doing very well in two areas and are focused on improving the third area, organic growth which we know is important to driving long-term shareholder value and we are committed to delivering that. So with that I'll turn it over to John.
John Stauch :
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide number 17 titled 2014 Free Cash Flow Generation. Cash flow was strong 2014 as free cash flow for the year was $889 million, which represented 121% of net income. This is the second consecutive year that free cash flow exceeded a 120% of net income. Just as important, ROIC increased over 11%. Free cash flow is an important component of our value creation story and we remain committed to delivering strong free cash flow on a consistent basis. Please turn to Slide number 18 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. As I mentioned on the previous slide, ROIC ended the year just over 11%, which we believe demonstrate the value creation from the Flow Control acquisition. We returned $1.4 billion to shareholders in 2014 through share repurchases and dividends. Our capital expenditures were lower last year to $130 million as we focused on fewer, higher return investments. But we expect that number to increase in 2015 as we continue to invest in growth and productivity initiatives across the company. Ending debt was $3 billion or $2.9 billion on a net debt basis inclusive of over cash on hand. Please turn to Slide number 19 labeled 2015 Forecasted Cash Flow Usage and Capital Allocation. We expect another strong year of free cash flow in 2015. With free cash expected to be around $925 million or greater than 115% of net income. We anticipate returning at least $440 million through share repurchases and dividends. Through January 2015, we completed $200 million of share repurchases under our current $1 billion authorization. And we've recently announced a dividend increase for the 39th consecutive year. We remained disciplined in our capital allocation approach which starts with our investment grade upgrading. We continue to fund organic growth opportunities and expect capital expenditures to be slightly ahead of depreciation. We are building our M&A funnel and expect to see acquisition activity return as the year progresses. We've made great strides in our standardization efforts and many of our businesses have earned the right to make strategic acquisitions. If we do not see deals materialize as we get later into the year, we will consider incremental share repurchases. Please turn to Slide number 20 labeled New Pentair Segmentation. As Randy mentioned earlier in the call, we are further streamlined the organization and have eliminated a GBU. This means that each of our four remaining GBUs will now also be an external reporting segment. We expect this new alignment to help optimize the revenue expansion of our growth platforms while also driving standardization to PIMS within the platforms and GBUs. We have moved our former filtration and processed platforms and combined them with our former flow technologies business to create flow and filtration solution. The Process Technologies segment has been renamed Water Quality Systems and includes our product systems, water purification, food service and environmental systems platforms. Valves & Controls and Technical Solutions remains the same. For your modeling purposes we have included restated segment numbers in the appendix in today's presentation. Please turn to Slide number 21 labeled Q1, 2015 Pentair Outlook. For the first quarter we expect core sales to increase 2% to 3% with the FX anticipated to be large 4% to 5% headwinds. On a core basis, we expect Valves & Controls sales to be flat based on their shippable backlog. Flow and filtration solutions sales are anticipated to be down 2% to 3% on a core basis which includes the big box exit. Water quality system sales are anticipated to grow 6% to 7% on a core basis with pool energy efficient penetration and continued growth in food service. Finally, Technical Solutions sales are expected to be up 2% to 3% on a core basis with strength in both industrial and energy. We are expecting adjusted operating income to be flat and adjusted operating margins to expand 40 basis points to 12.6%. Below the last operating line we anticipate our tax rates to be approximately 23%, net interest and other to be around $18 million and share count to be approximately 180 million. Our first quarter adjusted EPS range of $0.75 to $0.77 represents 7% growth to the mid point. As a reminder, free cash flow is historically run negative in the first quarter. Please turn to Slide number 22 labeled Full Year 2015 Outlook. As Randy mentioned earlier in the call, we are lowering our 2015 adjusted EPS guidance by a dime to range at $4.10 to $4.25. This reduction is solely attributable to the anticipated increased FX headwinds that we and most others are expecting. We continue to focus on the elements within our control and are working to deliver another year of double digit adjusted EPS growth. For the full year we expect core sales to grow 2% to 3% which we anticipate will be more than offset by 4% to 5% FX headwinds. Valves & Controls sales are anticipated to be flat to down 2% on core basis. We'll watch orders closely and continue to drive the short cycle business. Flow and filtrations solutions sales are expected to be up 3% to 5% on a core basis inclusive of the big box exit. Water quality system sales are anticipated to be up 5% to 7% on a core basis and technical solutions sales are expected to be up 3% to 5% on a core basis. We anticipate growth in our residential and commercial, industrial and food and beverage verticals while infrastructure is expected to improve as the year progresses. We expect adjusted operating income to be up 5% for the year and adjusted operating margins to expand 90 basis points to 15.4%. We continue to drive lean sourcing and standardization, expecting growth leverage to materialize within our businesses that are growing although FX headwinds will mitigate some of their leverage. We expect overall corporate cost to be approximately $105 million, net interest and other to be around $71 million. Our full year tax rate amount to 23% and the share count for the full year to be approximately 183 million. EPS growth is anticipated to increase 10% at the mid point of the range. Finally, we expect another strong year of free cash flow at approximately $925 million or greater than 115% of net income. Elisa, can you please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa:
What are you assuming on the raw materials dynamics for this year?
John Stauch :
We are seeing -- we are expecting to see little inflation if no inflation is there, Steve. I mean clearly we are going to expect especially in Valves & Controls more difficult pricing environment with our large customers and they are going to ask us to work with our channel partners and suppliers to keep cost down. So we are basically assuming no inflation right in material.
Steve Tusa:
Okay. And is there anything that you kind of marked to market, is there any kind of benefit or anything like that?
Randy Hogan:
Not really that. We are looking for -- how do we turn the FX change and doing advantage from a sourcing standpoint, yes. That's one of the active actions we have on; we don't have anything quantified yet, so Europe on sale and some other countries are too.
Steve Tusa:
Right. On the oil and gas weakness in the fourth quarter. Where exactly could you maybe little more precise that where you saw that? The orders?
John Stauch :
We are downstream for sure. So what we saw was -- what we are recalling earlier, Steve is we saw those orders being delayed in Q2 and Q3. And in fact they just continued to push out so most of the weakness was in the downstream and the capital expenditure models of our customers.
Steve Tusa:
Sorry downstream or upstream?
John Stauch :
No, upstream.
Steve Tusa:
Yes, too many streams.
Randy Hogan:
Yes. You are already seeing rig counts declining. Projects that are committed the downstream once refining and other profit-- those committed ones are we think are moving ahead and we are seeing releases on those. What it means for downstream in 2016, we will figure out but we are seeing a much faster change in the upstream activity. Midstream, they look good.
Steve Tusa:
Within your upstream, I know the business is pretty diverse globally. Within your upstream, is there any geography that you know I know this kind of parses it again but any geography that you are seeing that in? I mean it's pretty obvious the North America rate of changes obviously pretty dramatic keeping even though there were some companies that didn't really see it in the fourth quarter yet. Is it a global thing? Is it North America?
Randy Hogan:
Well, yes, North America clearly is a lot of coverage on that. But North Sea offshore which is obviously North Sea even Middle East.
Steve Tusa:
Okay, so it's in global stuff and then --
Randy Hogan:
Really the -- on the upstream side they are rapidly looking at all the budgets globally so --
Steve Tusa:
And then just one last comment. I mean this re-segmenting, I understand that there's a degree of perhaps cost saves associated with realignments and stuff. But this constant re-segmenting just breed's skepticism, I think, in the investment community. Hopefully, this is the last one. It really does not help, especially in an environment like this where there's a lot of stuff moving around. It does not help people gain confidence in the numbers.
Randy Hogan:
I appreciate that. And we didn't do it to make anyone's life difficult or to make things opaque when we merge the companies two years ago; we have seven GBU that wasn't sustainable. We got down to five GBUs and what this alignment was we have some under performance in one of the GBUs, we are getting cost structure that's easy and fast but the real focus is to get -- we now have all of -- in water we have all of our standard product sold through distribution in one business and now we move the engineer solution or filtration together with the engineered solutions or flow particularly with the exit of the big box so we have more consistency of end market and channel this way. And hopefully get some leverage.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Steven Winoker:
Thanks and good morning, all. Randy, it sure sounds like you were declaring victory on Tyco Flow at the beginning of this call. And we are two years in, obviously some great margin expansion. But could you maybe expand a little bit on that and where you are headed? And what does that imply for your thinking about M&A going forward?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. We feel pleased about where we are, we are two years in. I hesitate to call and declaring victory but we are pleased with our progress and I put it that way. And we are pleased because we believed in going in there, there were some very good businesses, they were not performing at the level they could perform if you apply good operating discipline. And this two years has proven that number one, yes, they are good businesses. Number two, our approach which we call PIMS was fundamental to bringing operating disciplines to those businesses very quickly. It raises our confidence and raises the Board's confidence; it raises many of shareholders' confidence that we can do it again. Our capacity is larger and what I mean by that our capacity and our expertise and the talent base we build to do it again. And we believe that we created a lot of value through doing it. And we talked before that the biggest myth in Tyco was the fact that if you go back to the Form -10 forecasted growth that they would see in those businesses was at least 3x higher than in all of the segments than what the world really delivered on that two years so we over delivered on what we controlled in an environment that turned out to be not as good. So what's the implication for M&A, we believe we have capability and we should put it to work. But we are going to remain discipline. We have the capacity, we mentioned in a $1 billion worth of capacity and but we are going to remain disciplined. We wanted to fit our five -- our five questions we always go through which is how does it fit our strategy? Number two, how is the financials work? Number three, why we the right buyer? Where is the value? And actually we have more offered there now with our capital structure and tax structure and our domicile. We actually have more unique opportunities to bring to play there. And then what's the integration plan importantly and what's the integration team? And we really got that right on Tyco. And we are not going to rush anything but we certainly up on our toes, on our balls of our feet looking out.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And on the oil and gas topic, let's assume for a minute that oil prices stabilize maybe even get a little bit better from here. In terms of -- I don't want to -- maybe I shouldn't use this word. Well, in terms of the damage that has already been done to this point right as this just -- the time -- can you help me with the pacing through orders and revenues and earnings, assuming things were to get a little bit better from here on the commodity side? Does that still -- how would that maybe change your outlook or how you're thinking about everything flowing through the business?
Randy Hogan:
Well, I'll ask John to give you a little more detail on the forecast. As we look at our forecast -- our forecast is we restart valves to basically be flat year-over-year and it is going to work to be there because we are seeing some price pressures. Our base case of how we are looking at this is where our underlying base case is that oil is going to be in turmoil for at least another 9 to 10 months. And even when it gets back up to more what let's call it sustainable level of $70 a barrel. The spending in the oil companies isn't going to snap back as quickly and snapped away. And I think they remain cautious. But it is basically supply demand in balance. So the price went lower than people expected, so they weren't forecasting the six months ago, I tend to be cautious about the forecast they make now. That's why we are assuming -- we are not assuming that there is any kind of snap back.
Steven Winoker:
Okay. And when you mentioned downstream and petro -- and North America process build out on page 15 in industrial, the North America process build out, are you talking about petrochem and everything or do you include --
Randy Hogan:
We put process industries and petrochemical not in a sort of after the refinery, petrochemical and other chemicals that aren't just petrol related. We put that in our industrial category. There are still a lot of attractive economics to most of those projects and we are not seeing cancellations there. Some of the ones that are on the deep planning board may have a little bit of doubt to them now but even the LNG facilities, all the ones that FERC has approved and we expect those to go forward. We still have the opportunities to ship natural gas overseas to other countries. We have in North America; we still have an advantage if not an even more advantaged situation.
Steven Winoker:
Okay and just building on Steve, just one last question. That page 10, process technology, is the only place where you had inflation not offsetting productivity and price. So is that part of having function of this additional segmentation? Is that what you're saying?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. Our performance on productivity and managing inflation and actually price realization wasn't very good in that GBU.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate all the calibration you are providing on your oil exposure. And I know it's 19% of your portfolio, but that's where we're seeing most of the changes, and that's why you're getting all of these questions. So let me just chime in with mine. Just for clarification on slide 9, the energy backlog, the sequential decline. I believe you said that you had re-priced your backlog for FX. So how much of that sequential decline was in FX versus push-outs?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. It is about half. What we did there as we -- that's the reality if you price it today and revalue it with FX today, so we just think that's like the better way to do it because if you sold it today that's what sort of would be add and Valves & Controls business we have fairly large book of business actually in Europe is booked in euros but to change that more in dollars, it is work to be done yet. So that's what we are doing there.
Deane Dray:
Have any of those backlogs been re-priced, customers coming back to you?
Randy Hogan:
No. We are hearing from customers as John mentioned customers asking us to look hard at price and on what's being lack, what's being worked but not in what's in the backlog.
Deane Dray:
Okay. And then if we go back to slide 5 which was very helpful in saying, look at the changes since the December outlook call, maybe just clarify on the restructuring comment, where in December there was modest, and then saying more aggressive. But it says 2014 restructuring. Does that suggest you did more in the quarter? And what about -- can you give us some color on the restructuring actions for 2015?
John Stauch :
Yes. We did more in the quarter. It's really what we were referring to as we started to see some of the currency challenges and the oil and gas headwinds we went to the businesses and took incremental restructuring. So far up to 2015 we are not anticipating any more so our current guidance reflects net adjusted end reported are equal there. If we need to do more we will do more.
Deane Dray:
And then last question, John, since I've got you here. On FX, just refresh us on what types of natural hedges that you have, the currency exposure; might you be doing any translational hedging? We're seeing companies like GE and Honeywell talking about that. We're in an unprecedented FX headwind right now. Might you be doing anything additional on the hedging front? And especially if it ties to your foreign domicile, whether that's an advantage or a disadvantage?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. So this number here represents the translational impact of the dollar against global currencies. It is unprecedented and being that the dollar strengthens against every currency generally in the world. I mean usually there are natural hedges where the dollar weakens against some and strengthens against others. There is as Randy mentioned also the transactional benefit that we would expect and that would come through the sourcing line where the lower currency is actually giving us productivity and less expensive purchases. I would think that somewhere in the 40% of this number range. And that we will see to the sourcing benefit. As far as what everybody else is doing a hedging, I remain interested and curious. We are looking at some of those options but quite frankly we got to find a way to make them work into our reporting and as you know you can hedge sequentially but you can't hedge year-over-year. So we have to be comfortable that if we were to do that everybody would understand what we are doing and I think right now there is -- it is anybody's call what's going to happen and so I am not a genius at hedging so we have to look at the upside and downside.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on V&C. The margins were incredibly strong this quarter. And I basically wanted to just get a sense from you on the long-term trajectory of these margins. I think we've talked historically that this could be a high-teens type business. But just in light of your commentary on wage inflation, pricing could be a little bit more difficult in 2015. I'm just trying to understand the trajectory of that business moving forward.
John Stauch :
Yes. I'll start with just framing and I mean we still think we are roughly 400 to 500 basis points behind what we call a peer group that continues to perform and improve their margins as well. And so we still haven't -- I look at this as opportunity but we acquired some 20 ERP systems and lots of global back offices and lots of entities that we never integrated, and so what we are doing and we are launching this year is OMT initiative which is our operating model transformation and as we go live we will be able to put all these businesses on a common framework and really believe that there is enormous potential that still remains on the margin side. I'll let Randy comment on incremental value for them.
Randy Hogan:
Well, I mean really and we wanted to turn some of that increased capability to improving our differential growth. But we actually haven't touched the go to market side of Valves & Controls, so we are focusing on the operating side so that we can keep growth going but frankly I am disappointed with the performance on the growth side of Valves & Controls, so I think we need to leverage that to get better connected and leveraged and gain share on -- based on the execution improvements we've had in things like pressure management where we have moved situations very difficult up to being almost high performing in terms of delivery and quality. We should be gaining a lot more share from that.
Joe Ritchie:
Now that makes sense. But maybe following up on OMT, did you guys start to see some of the benefit already this quarter? And can you just remind us what your expectation is for the benefit in 2015?
John Stauch :
A lot of the benefits that we have been getting in 2013 and 2014 were lean sourcing, lowering operational fruit, fixing quality delivery and over time and premium freight --
Randy Hogan:
Then a few plant shutdown
John Stauch :
And then a few small plant closures as Randy mentioned. Also fixing some low margin product mix challenges, so a lot more of the operational prioritization side and what we realized in 2013 and 2014. What we are going to see now coming in 2015 and beyond will be the benefits of related to OMT is we would see coming through primarily the G&A side as well as more operational efficiencies and working capital improvement.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. And is there a number that you guys have quantified that is embedded in your guidance?
Randy Hogan:
It is probably 200 -300 basis points more on that regarding over the next couple of years.
Randy Hogan:
That's couple of years not this year.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. And maybe one last question. John, you mentioned earlier -- clearly you guys bought back about $200 million this quarter. You've got about $1 billion left. And I think you mentioned earlier that you'd consider incremental share repurchases if M&A didn't come to fruition. So is it fair to say that you are going to put the buyback on hold for now just based on what you see in your pipeline, and then could get more aggressive in the back half of the year? Is that how we should interpret your comments?
John Stauch :
That's a fair assessment, correct.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with UBS. Your line is open.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Good morning, guys. Well, I do have one non oil questions.
Randy Hogan:
Thank you. You win the prize. How many minutes in are we?
Shannon O'Callaghan:
On tech solutions, this industrial strength that you started to see the last couple quarters, could you may be fill that out a little bit in terms of what you're seeing, and your confidence that that's real, sustained momentum? And then also on kind of on the flip side there of -- I guess I'm not totally avoiding -- is the energy piece on Canadian oil sands. Where does that head from here?
Randy Hogan:
Sure. On the first one, a lot of that strength in industrial is North America, is the North American investments and you can see the ISM numbers. We've also had -- one of the reasons we are up energy there is that we've launched a new line of product that is finding good promise particularly in the downstream refining and really very well received by customers. So we believe we are gaining share in that product line. So it's end market it is North America and it is both the discrete and process manufacturing so that's why we feel like second half bodes well for the industrial part of technical solutions there. On the oil sand, the oil sand there is small projects are going forward the MRO, it is a hostile environment that requires money to be spent to keep it going. And we think it will, that money the MRO the short cycle will keep going. Couple of larger projects have been affirmed and going forward. And I think all the other projects are probably -- all the projects that haven't been given the go ahead are questionable at this point. That would be my conjecture.
Shannon O'Callaghan:
Okay. And then on the re-segmentation again, could you just fill out a little bit more what you expect the benefits to be? Is it more of a -- you think it's going to show up -- you mentioned where you are in quartiles on growth, versus things like cash or margins. Do you expect this re-segmentation to benefit more on the growth side or margins? Or what was exactly not working?
Randy Hogan:
Yes. Let me start with -- seven GBU was too many, I think four was just right. We are really driving towards a simpler structure that is more intimate for John and I in particular to deal with the presidents on the opportunities and challenges that they each have. We had a mix, we had two in the process technologies we had the water quality businesses which included pool and residential filtration. These are products that were -- they are largely standard, they are engineered but they are standard set of products largely sold through distribution. And it is a different go-to-market model than the engineered bespoke filtration systems that was at the high end. And it is closer to the infrastructure and industrial kind of things that flow does particular as flow is moved away from the big box business. So we have the opportunity to get cost but we have a simpler organization, they are each well over a $1 billion in size so we have scale and we have expectations on those four presidents that are higher, clear and more demanding.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Scott Graham:
Hey, good morning. And thanks for all this clarity. The one thing I would hope that maybe you can bring a little bit more to bear on would be the Valves & Controls 2015 outlook, which actually looks like was upgraded from what you said a month ago, month and a half ago, of down 2% to 4%, to flat to down to 2%, in an oil environment that has obviously deteriorated. So could you give us your thinking on that?
John Stauch :
Yes. I think just to clarify to you Scott, I think the update we probably gave last time included the foreign exchange impact and the flat to down 2% that we are looking at now which is core, if you look at them on a FX or the same basis we think it is maybe two points worse on the top line --
Randy Hogan:
And on same, same basis.
John Stauch :
On same, same basis.
Scott Graham:
So you're saying that within your 2015 outlook, that was a grossed up number?
John Stauch :
Yes. I think we definitely adjusted two points down on the top line. As you know, there is piece every single year that you head into the year and shippable backlog, so we've FX adjusted as shippable backlog and that makes up almost 50% of the shipments we expect this year and then the rest is what orders you take in and the booking ship nature of those orders within the year. So I think we are really talking as Randy mentioned earlier what is the impact to 2016 and 2017 as we kind of go to through the year with Valves & Controls and what happens with oil prices and what happens with this end market that we are facing.
Scott Graham:
Okay, got you. On the adjusted margins, no change there, but obviously a little bit lower on the operating leverage. And you are essentially saying and obviously a little bit off on the FX but you're saying that the restructuring kind of fills a lot of that gap, yes?
John Stauch :
Yes. I mean I think we took out the translational impact of foreign exchange; it still seems double digit operating income across most of these segments.
Scott Graham:
Okay, great. Thank you. Last question. How skewed towards the second half of the year is the share repurchase going to be? Could you maybe be a little bit more specific on that prior question?
Randy Hogan:
We've already finished it.
John Stauch :
We've already finished the $200 million --
Randy Hogan:
$200 million out of the $1 billion. The original approval was the $1 billion over multiple years and first $200 million was what we intended to do this year -- we finished it already.
Scott Graham:
I was referring to the 2015 within the guidance.
John Stauch :
Yes, Scott, I think we really -- we are seeing a richer funnel of M&A activity right now and we think that our business that we mentioned that are more standardized and certainly the ones that are growing organically you could certainly benefit from adding some content to their customers. And I think this could be a year where we complete several transactions. And if those don't materialize and we feel like they are fading away from the funnel then we would look at our capital allocation strategy again and certainly buyback is a smart thing to do if you don't have any use of the capital.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Hi, guys, good morning. Just to clarify so what's the offset to the oil and gas top line weakness? Is that the additional restructuring within the guide?
John Stauch :
Yes.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on the new segments, how should we think about the long-term margin trajectory in the two segments? You have one that sticks out as very good margins and one as much lower. Where can those go?
John Stauch :
I would just say you are going to see a higher level of basis point improvement in Valves & Controls and flow and filtration solutions. Both have significant standardization opportunities in front of them. And both obviously Valves & Controls because they started lot later but both have more lean opportunities. What I call the systems and technical solutions, they have pretty nice margins. And the majority of their platforms but some of their platforms still substantial opportunities as well. So we see margin improvement across all of them. But you are going to see the majority of the opportunity in flow and filtration solutions and Valves & Controls.
Randy Hogan:
And I just add also those higher margin ones, water quality systems and technical solutions, they have really good growth opportunities and we want to make sure that we are taking that high profitability and high grading with they are going after so that we can continue to drive that. You see that in a technical solutions performance in the fourth quarter where we had good quarter growth and we got significant margin expansion on top of that which is the operating leverage.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Brian Konigsberg:
Yes, hi, good morning, guys. Just actually one clarification. On the guidance, it just looks like you reset the base a little bit both on the Q1 comparison also the full year. Is that just purely the water transport business that is being reflected there?
Randy Hogan:
No. Water transport we took out -- we had no water transport in for the year.
John Stauch :
Yes. That's in discontinued operations, Brian. So there is no impact of water transport. The full year guidance was just adjusted $0.10 on a lower end and $0.10 on a higher end for further foreign exchange. And when -- as the currency moved probably just the year ago from the mid $1.20 all the way down $1.13, so that's really what we are adjusting for this Q -- sorry Q1 is little bit more FX on a year-on-year basis of headwind and then there is plus shipping days in the quarter and it is just overall not the strongest quarter of the year.
Brian Konigsberg:
Actually, I guess I was asking a different question. I was just looking at your Q1 2015 guidance. You're looking -- the comparison is $1.64 billion. When you reported it, it just was $1.725 billion in the first quarter of last year.
John Stauch :
I have to follow up with you; I'll find Brian on that.
Brian Konigsberg:
Okay. And I think actually the full year 2014 number -- well, actually I'm sorry. The full year 2013 number is a little bit different too. Anyway we'll follow up on that.
John Stauch :
Just to clear, I mean last year's shipments were $1.644 billion Q1 on a continued operation basis.
Randy Hogan:
So probably is water transport
Brian Konigsberg:
Okay, so it was the water transport. It was just in disc ops.
Randy Hogan:
Yes. You are probably right.
Brian Konigsberg:
The base was just -- okay, got it. Separately, just on working capital, so you kept the free cash flow assumption. I think when you gave the outlook for 2015, you only anticipated about $10 million of working capital benefit. Is that still the same in the outlook? And maybe separately, just maybe comment on the lower CapEx, where you're cutting and --
John Stauch :
I mean roughly yes we do still have significant working capital improvement in front of us. We are not forecasting a lot of improvement in 2015. But it remains our largest opportunity and so really on a cash flow to net income basis we are somewhere that $1.15 to $1.20 range I mean you can like collect cash once, so we had a strong cash performance in 2014 and we are expecting a strong gain in 2015. Not really cutting capital, we are prioritizing it. And we are prioritizing it to program that have the highest level of return. And right now we've always generally had a concept here that we have creativity for capital. And that's part of lean and a lot of our businesses are realizing that through the lean adoption especially our newer businesses they have less capital are required. So where we have opportunities to upgrade for automated purposes or driving significant productivity, we continue to fund those projects as they generate substantial returns.
Brian Konigsberg:
If I could sneak one last in, just on the FX. So obviously with the stronger dollar and the weaker euro, would you anticipate that to translate actually into greater demand within the European region? Is that in the plan at all or maybe just general thoughts on --
Randy Hogan:
I mean we would expect that the European business is -- European base businesses will be more competitive globally and so that over time macroeconomics would say that would favor economic growth there, economic growth there -- it would be good for the world unless it comes with the expense of another region like --
Brian Konigsberg:
But not in the 2015 plan?
Randy Hogan:
No.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of clarifications. Did I hear right on Valves & Controls pricing that you are renegotiating with the customers given the current environment?
Randy Hogan:
No. We said -- what we said was that customers are asking us to participate in the difficulties they are facing. But nothing has been renegotiated. This is on new things. So just what I would characterize, I would characterize it is tougher pricing environment on the horizon.
Andrew Obin:
So, do you think pricing could turn negative?
John Stauch :
In Valves & Controls, yes, I mean obviously it is anticipated pricing so it's not anything to do with margin and backlog. So these are projects that on horizon so you don't usually score keep price but the competitive dynamics will be tougher. And so therefore we will have to get tougher in our cost reductions to be competitive on those projects.
Andrew Obin:
And just another clarification on Valves & Controls backlog. Did I hear you right that you guys think that it will start going up in the second half? I'm just questioning, where does the confidence come from given that so far I think it has been somewhat below expectations?
John Stauch :
Yes. I don't -- I think we don't want to interpret; there is a lot of confidence in the backlog increasing. I mean what we are suggesting is that the orders throughout the year will reflect the projects in the market that we are participating in. And so I am not suggesting that we are going to raise backlog substantially for the year. We are actually saying --
Andrew Obin:
But did I hear right that the expectation is that sometimes this year backlog will turn positive?
Randy Hogan:
No. What we said specifically was that we think that the process segment which is an industrial, order will go forward and we expect that we will get orders. We didn't read that across the backlog at all. Do some more work on us, okay?
Andrew Obin:
Okay. Then just a last question on M&A. It sounds like you said certain businesses have earned their right to do business, to do deals. And clearly you guys are very happy with underlying performance at Tyco. You also highlighted that I think I heard a comment that Europe is on sale. Private equity guys are pulling back due to regulations. Does that mean that energy is probably the most likely place where you guys are going to look for M&A? Just a little bit more color there.
Randy Hogan:
Our performance on the integration of Tyco is what I said it has been very, very good and we have one company now, it is not Tyco, it is not Pentair, it is one new Pentair -
Andrew Obin:
Yes, I apologize, yes.
Randy Hogan:
We are -- we have demonstrated with our performance and we have lots of happy shareholders as a result. The M&A -- I would not rule out oil and gas but I wouldn't say if that was necessarily the priority. I wouldn't say anything in particular to priority, we will apply our disciplines, we will apply our four questions or five questions and if we find things that are -- that meet our screen we will be active. If we don't --
Andrew Obin:
So what are the other businesses that earned their right to do M&A, then? You were very, obviously and deservedly so highlighting very strong underlying execution. So what other businesses should I think about?
Randy Hogan:
Well, Technical Solutions and water quality systems are our highest performing businesses. We like those a lot but all four of the businesses do have opportunities in one or more of their 18 platforms, but I won't in the interest of competitive thus --
Andrew Obin:
No, sure. I appreciate. Thank you so much.
Randy Hogan:
All right. That was last question. About the replay information. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's Pentair Q4, 2014 earnings conference call. This call will be available for replay beginning at 12 O'clock noon Eastern Standard Time today though 11.59 PM Eastern Standard Time on February 27. The conference ID number for the replay is 63853866. Again the conference ID number for the replay is 63853866. The number to dial for the replay is 800-585-8367 or 404-537-3406.
Executives:
James C. Lucas - Vice President of Investor Relations Randall J. Hogan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Member of International Committee John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC Mike Halloran - Robert W. Baird Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus Scott Graham - Jefferies Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research Brian Drab - William Blair Andrew Obin - Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Jonathan Wright - Nomura Securities David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Keith and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q3 2014 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
James Lucas:
Thanks, Keith, and welcome to Pentair's third quarter 2014 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations, and with me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter 2014 performance, as well as our fourth quarter and full year 2014 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and 10-Q in today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference to these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall Hogan:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin with our third quarter performance, which is on Slide four. We are very pleased with third quarter performance as revenue met our forecast and we delivered strong margin expansion and EPS growth once again. Sales grew 3% during the quarter with Technical Solutions leading the way with 8% growth. Our operating income grew 12% and operating margins expanded 130 basis points to 15.2%. EPS grew 22% and exceeded the high end of our guidance for the quarter. Free cash flow continued to be strong and was greater than 120% of net income in Q3. We remain on track to generate free cash flow greater than 110% for the full year. Now let’s turn to Slide five for a more detailed look at the third quarter results. After a slow start to the year, the 3% sales growth was an encouraging continuation of the top-line acceleration experienced in the second quarter. Volume grew 2% and we delivered a positive point of price in the third quarter. Foreign exchange was neutral, but we are closely watching the strengthening of the dollar against many currencies and are anticipating FX headwinds to pick up in the fourth quarter. We will discuss the geographical and vertical performance of the company in more detail shortly, but it was particularly encouraging to see all five vertical markets grow in the quarter. The right half of the page shows third quarter Pentair operating profits and margins. Our adjusted operating income increase of 12% and adjusted operating margin expansion of 130 basis points to 15.2% were driven by growth leverage and strong productivity and synergies. Inflation remained consistent with the first half and price and productivity continued to more than offset inflation. We continue to make great progress with our lean and sourcing initiatives, particularly in our 16 focus factories. Now let’s turn to Slide six for a review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. In the third quarter, Valves & Controls had flat sales with price mostly offsetting slightly weaker volume. Orders were flat in the quarter and backlog was down 3%, excluding FX, to $1.3 billion. During the quarter Oil & Gas grew 3% and process sales saw a 5% growth, while the smaller Power and Mining sales declined. We continue to see quarter-to-quarter volatility in Power, but the Mining weakness is expected to continue. The right half of the page shows third quarter Valves & Controls operating profits and margins. We were very pleased with the operating performance of Valves & Controls in the third quarter, with adjusted operating margins expanding 260 basis points to 15.7%, even including $4 million in cost for the segment Operating Model Transformation, or OMT. As a reminder, we expect the OMT investments in Valves & Controls to continue on an annual basis through 2016, with that investment expected to drive nearly $80 million of annual operating income savings, once completed, and overall tax benefits to Pentair of roughly three points through the optimization of the global Valves & Controls structure. We continue to see strong adoption of PIMS and momentum in Lean is accelerating as seen by continuing improvements in on-time deliveries in Valves & Controls Now let’s turn to Slide seven for a look at the orders and backlogs GBU. As you can see on Slide seven, Valves & Controls backlog is broken down in four key industries, three of which fall into our energy vertical, Oil & Gas, Power & Mining and one in our industrial vertical, which is the Process business. Overall backlog at the end of the quarter down 3% including FX to $1.3 billion. Energy remained mix in Valves & Controls with Oil & Gas delivering strong order growth while Power declined and Mining was weak. This is the second consecutive quarter of orders growth for Oil & Gas and quoting remains healthy. In particular, we continue to see strength in North American LNG. With a sharp decline in oil prices the past month, we are monitoring quoting activity closely. Overall Power orders were down in the quarter. We did see some large Power orders finally break in India and China during the quarter, while Europe remained soft. Mining continued to be in a secular decline. And while we’re seeing maintenance orders comes through in Mining, the overall outlook for this smallest piece of Valves & Controls remains guarded. We saw the biggest backlog declines in Process and Power. Although Power is expected to remain volatile quarter-to-quarter, we expect improvements in Process in 2015 as we continue to see positive signs with an acceleration in North American orders based upon strong quoting activity. Now let’s move to Slide eight for another view of Valves & Controls orders. Obviously, the fluctuations around orders and backlog are disquieting. That’s why we’re building more rigor in our forecasting of Valves & Controls orders and sales. This chart is an example of one way we’re looking at the business. The left side shows the quarterly volatility we’ve seen in Valves & Controls orders. So to see clearer trends, we look at running averages. You can see on a trailing six-month basis, orders are showing that a positive trend may be emerging. On a trailing 12-month basis, that potential trend is further evident. It's likely that quarter-to-quarter volatility will continue with this business given project timing and customer needs, but our improved forecasting models are showing improvement in both the trailing six and trailing 12-month orders for both industrial process and oil and gas. Given these two industries comprise nearly 75% of Valves & Controls business, we remain cautiously optimistic for the GBU. Now let’s move to Slide nine for a look at our Process Technologies segment. Process Technologies reported solid top line growth of 4%, with volumes contributing 3% and a positive 1% from price. Residential & Commercial remained strong with 7% growth, Food & Beverage grew 5% and Infrastructure was up 2%. Our beverage business experienced some customer delays in spending, but these projects or delays are not cancellations. Our food service business delivered another strong quarter of double digit growth, which was broad based globally. The right half of the page shows second quarter Process Technologies operating profits and margins. We are disappointed with the operating margins of Process Technology during the quarter. Mix was a primary factor in the income and margin declines as we saw more growth from our lower margin project businesses within Process Technologies and our pool business began managing its early buy program more closely. In our Residential Filtration business, we have seen a shift to more point-of-entry than point-of-use solutions, which also had a detrimental effect on margins. While mix will be important to improving margins, we continue to have a lot of opportunities to drive productivity within the businesses and so this is an area of focus for Process Technologies. Now let’s move to Slide 10 for a look at Flow Technologies. Flow Tech reported a 2% revenue decline as a point of positive price contribution was not enough to offset a 3% reduction in volume. As we indicated last quarter, we have strategically been deemphasizing lower margin retail business and this did have a negative impact on the quarter's reported results. This is the correct strategic and financial decision. And while we will have a few more quarters of top-line headwind, we more clearly focused on driving differentiated growth in the more profitable Flow channel. The retail shift was the contributing factor to the Residential & Commercial decline in the quarter, but we also saw the industrial and infrastructure businesses decline in this GBU. Industrial saw growth in its global fire offerings, but this was not enough to offset sluggish OEM demand. Within infrastructure, we saw some growth in the break and fix business where project activity continued to be slow for our engineered flow business. We saw growth in Food & Beverage as our applied water business once again delivered differentiated growth, which more than offset continued weakness in agriculture. The right half of the page show second quarter Flow Technologies operating profits and margins. Operating income was flat with operating margins expanding 30 basis points to 14.1%. Flow Technologies delivered positive price and productivity that offset inflation during the quarter. The weaker top-line, including the retail shift we mentioned previously, hindered income growth. But operating margin expansion is expected to accelerate as mix slowly improves. Let’s now turn to Slide 11 for a look at Technical Solutions results. Technical Solutions had a great third quarter with 8% sales growth, with all verticals contributing in the quarter. Volume grew 7% and price was a positive contribution of 1%. Industrial grew 5% led by our North American Equipment Protection business. Energy still showed strong growth of 13% in the quarter with strength globally, particularly in Canada. While it was encouraging to see Canada turn positive for the first time this year for Technical Solutions, it is far too early to call this a trend, but we’re watching order rates in the oil sands very closely. Infrastructure was up 12% on the strength of our European Electronics business where comparisons will begin to get tougher starting in the fourth quarter. Finally, Residential & Commercial grew 9% as last year’s cold winter has led to early stocking in both North America and European channels. The right half of the page shows third quarter Technical Solutions operating profits and margins. Operating income grew 15% and operating margins expanded 140 basis points to 22%. Price and productivity remained a hallmark of this GBU. What the strong top-line demonstrates is leverage in this business and how little bit of growth can quickly flow through to the bottom line. Again, we’re very encouraged by the strength of Technical Solutions in the quarter. And while the growth rate is expected to moderate in the fourth quarter, it does appear that the industrial business is strengthening the back half of the year as we had expected. Let’s now turn to Slide 12 for a closer look at the total Pentair growth profile. Like the first half of the year, during the third quarter we saw solid growth in developed countries while fast growth regions remain mix. U.S. grew at a mid single digit rate and Canada grew double digits. But we saw Europe decline for the first time this year. Overall, developed economies delivered solid growth. Fast growth regions were down modestly for the quarter, but it truly was a mixed bag. China, South East Asia and Latin America, all grew double digits, but we continue to see declines in the Middle East and softness in Eastern Europe and Africa. While weakness in the Middle East is due mostly to a couple of large projects last year that did not repeat, we still see attractive growth prospects for the Middle East long term. Energy turned positive for the first time this year, but remains down year-to-date. Part of the decline is the previously mentioned large projects in the Middle East. We’re seeing strength the last few quarters in oil and gas, particularly in North America, but the declines occurring in the smaller power and mining industries are masking the oil and gas improvement. Industrial grew modestly overall and is up year-to-date. We're particularly encouraged to see the strength in our high margin North American equipment protection business. While process orders have shown quarterly lumpiness, we believe that we’re well positioned for what we see as improving North American orders in 2015 and 2016. Quoting activity remained strong as process companies made CapEx commitments to take advantage of lower energy and feedstock prices. While we’ve seen residential and commercial growth rates moderate, growth remains healthy on the strength of a strong North American housing market. We also saw continued signs of recovery in our smaller commercial businesses. Food and beverage has seen growth moderate largely due to two factors. First, as mentioned earlier, the slowing in agriculture is clearly having an impact on our Ag related businesses. Second, delays in beverage projects have muted the growth in this vertical. Infrastructure was a positive story once again this quarter, driven mostly by our electronics business within Technical Solutions. While the comps begin to get tougher for electronics next quarter, we’re seeing small signs of encouragement that make us believe our water related infrastructure businesses are slowly turning positive. After a slow start to the year, we’re seeing improvements in our two largest verticals, Energy and Industrial. We continue to grow albeit at a more moderate rate than was anticipated at this point of an economic recovery, and we’re positive about the progress we’re making around productivity and standardization. While the global economic environment has its share of challenges, we remain cautiously optimistic. Cash flow remains a very bright spot for us and we remain focused on disciplined capital allocation. With that, I’ll turn the call over to John.
John Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide #13 titled Q4 '14 Pentair Outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2014, we expect sales to be up approximately 1% to 2% to 1.85 billion which includes about a point of anticipated FX headwinds. Valves & Controls is forecast to be flat, Process Technologies is expected to be up 5%, Flow Technologies is estimated to be down 4% with tougher comps in Ag and further deemphasis of lower margin retail business, and Technical Solutions is expected to be up 4% on continued strength in industrial. We expect operating income to be up roughly 9% and operating margins to expand 90 basis points to 14.5%. This includes ongoing OMT investments in Valves & Controls unless of a negative mix issue in Process Technologies. Our EPS forecast for the fourth quarter is a range of $1.02 to $1.04 for an increase of roughly 20%. We are expecting the tax rate to be around 23.5% and the share count to be around 187 million, reflecting recent stock buyback efforts. Please turn to Slide #14 labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Quarter end debt was approximately 3 billion, or 2.7 billion on a net debt basis, inclusive of global cash on hand. In the third quarter we returned over 450 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. At the end of the third quarter we had approximately 300 million remaining under our current 1 billion share repurchase authorization, but we plan to exhaust the remaining authorization levels in the fourth quarter. Our ROIC ended the quarter above 10%. We continue to have a lot of opportunities on the working capital front with the legacy flow control businesses and we expect to make further progress as the year continues. Please to turn to Slide #15 labeled Full Year 2014 Pentair Outlook. We are raising our 2014 adjusted EPS to a range of $3.72 to $3.74 from a range of $3.65 to $3.70 or greater than 20% growth reflecting the third quarter results. For the year, we’re expecting the top line to grow 1% to 2% inclusive of the impact of foreign exchange to 7.1 billion. We expect Valves & Controls to be down modestly for the full year. Process Technologies is expected to grow 5% for the year on the strength of pool, beverage systems and food service. Flow Technologies is anticipated to be down 2% for the full year and Technical Solutions is forecast to grow 4% due largely to an improving industrial business. Adjusted operating income is expected to be up approximately 13% to just over 1.01 billion and this includes roughly 20 million of OMT investments within Valves & Controls. Adjusted operating margins are anticipated to expand 140 basis points to 14.3%. For the full year, we expect the tax rate to be around 23.5% and the share count to be about 195 million. Free cash flow remains on track to be north of 110% of net income. Operator, can you please open the line for questions? Thank you.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
So when we think about the dynamics around the valve orders and some of the stuff that's coming out of process or which segment is the one that’s down in the fourth quarter, the flow segment, this year along with some other incremental headwinds, how does all this kind of mix together and set up for the growth dynamics for next year? You talked about the rolling valve orders being good. Does the fourth quarter look okay on that front? Maybe you could just talk about those dynamics.
Randall Hogan:
I think we never put too much emphasis on Q3, first of all. I mean with August being a pretty light quarter month traditionally than July, and we take a look at a couple of dynamics. We look at our win rate in the quarter’s that we're quoting. We look at how strong the front log is than where the quote log is. The actual quoted activity in Q3 was down, so we feel like our win rate held in. And we still see a bunch of projects heading into Q4. So we're expecting Q4 to be another strong orders growth and we need it as we set up our expectations for next year. But we're certainly in wait-and-see mode on the pace of those orders and obviously mid-December we'll be providing guidance that will give an update on how we feel about next year.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
And so can you still -- that $4.50 number is still kind of out there as a possibility or is it too late now to book enough orders to have that at least as part of a range?
Randall Hogan:
I wouldn’t take it off the table at all, no. I mean we are not done until we're done. As we mentioned, our hit rate is good. There is lots of activity out there. We track hit rate, and things have slid, we all know that, everyone in the industry has seen that. But we haven’t seen massive cancellations or share loss that we can calculate.
John Stauch:
Steve, I think when you look at the dynamics of what we are trying to drive, and I think Q3 is indicative of this, we want to have most of the things in our control. And one of the things not in our control is the market. But we still have a lot of synergies remaining and we are building momentum at Lean. We have got carryover restructuring that we are still working on heading into next year. And the operational performance is encouraging because we are building momentum there. We want to grow more than anybody. And every time we see some markets go forward, a couple of markets go backwards. And so we have got to look at things we can control and within the things we control, we're exceeding our expectations. And then we have to see where the market is going to shake out next year. But I think given our operational execution, we still feel confident that we can deliver superior value to the company.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
What percentage of your oil and gas business is midstream, upstream, downstream? How do we think about that?
John Stauch:
Just under a third would be midstream.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan:
And then upstream? Is it a third, a third, a third?
John Stauch:
It is more than a third and then downstream is a little down of third.
Randall Hogan:
The way we look at Valves & Controls, we are particularly strong in mining and power. They are not as big as oil and gas obviously, or process. So their being weak is not great news for us. But frankly, we are very strong in LNG and we are very strong in process. And those two, the outlook for those two applications, LNG in particular with cryogenic applications, we are very strong in that. We see a number of projects there that are quite exciting. And there is going to be five-six -- in just in North America there are going to be five or six new plants every year for the next three years in the Petrochem space and probably five to six expansions. And it's early days for the valves to be led in that because in the way it rolls out, there will be plant level awards first and then get to the valves. But we are tracking them all and we feel good about those.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Bernstein Research. Your line open.
Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC:
Hey Randy, maybe you could follow up a little bit on that. In terms of if oil prices were to stay similar to the current range for a little bit more of an extended time and you look at the balance of your exposure that you just described upstream, midstream, downstream, I mean to what extent do you see that as kind of a headwind versus tailwind for the company?
Randall Hogan:
Well I am not an oil guru, but we are watching with great anticipation like everyone else on what the impact will be, what oil price is, different activity change. But the end customers don’t -- they are not changing their CapEx plans based on movements week-to-week on oil prices. They are waiting – they'll take the year to do directionally drill the well in a tight shale formation. So it's not something that you turn on and off on a weekly or monthly basis, so – if we look at overall CapEx plans. But in particular if you take a look at the two businesses that I just talked about, LNG, the thing that’s driving LNG right now is the opportunity to export LNG from North America. If you take a look at it, we have a vast amount of natural gas that is priced for the first time the lowest BTU value since the deregulation natural gas and the first time natural gas is trading at a price lower than its BTU value. And with the abundance of natural gas, you can see us having a real opportunity to export that gas to other countries, but basically Asia and Europe. And there's four or five projects underway right now then there are 17 being planned. And then on the petrochem side same thing. A lot of the investment left overtime as natural gas, which is the feedstock at petrochem, the natural gas liquids, as they even up in price, that capacity left in the country and now it’s coming back and all for the same reason, natural gas prices were pretty low. So, those two in particular benefit from the longer term lower cost of natural gas. So that’s why I'm encouraged and I’m worried less about what oil prices do to those two things than I am to what it would do to E&P.
Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC:
And then John, Page five, which is really helpful, the operating income walk that talked about growth inflation and productivity versus price. The inflation you're saying is sort of 1.5% for the whole company. I mean I make the assumption that that’s including wage and material, total inflation, And then mix is somewhere baked in here, maybe you could describe where you put it. And then the basic business model then is kind of 1.5% inflation offset by 1% of price and 1% of productivity. Is that the way – that just happened obviously this quarter. But as you think about kind of the business model for the company in the absence of growth, how should we think about this? And then how do you think about it sort of a little bit longer term?
John Stauch:
You’re right. I mean our inflation numbers include both labor inflation and material inflation, so you’re right. And then mix is netted into productivity and price columns and that’s inclusive of a negative mix we have. I think as we think about where we are right now, I think inflation is going to get a little higher and that’s not a bad thing, we’re actually hoping it to go up a little bit. And then overall we do strive to get about a point of price. I mean where 70 to 80 basis points of price is a full yield for us given the fact that half of the revenue -- or about 40% of our global revenue is more projects and systems now, so less price opportunity there. And our productivity is two points and that’s what we try to archive. And right now we've got a lot of tailwinds there. We'll start to see benefits in OMP next year. But as I mentioned, we have to carry over restructuring and we’re really building momentum around lean and sourcing in the new flow control additions. So I don’t think it’s time to pull back on productivity anytime soon. As a matter of fact, we want to push the pedal harder on that, Steve. And those – I said it earlier, those are in our control.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Baird. Your line is open.
Mike Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
So just on the thermal side of the business, maybe you could just talk a little bit about how backlogs are trending there, project acceptance, some of the Canadian activity. But then also what that quoting activity looks like and how that’s tracking relative to expectations?
John Stauch:
So a couple of elements there, I mean I’ll start with Canada first. Canada, we are at levels now on an annual basis that we feel really reflect hopefully a floor. But we’ve been tracking at those levels and starting to see an uptick and we did see an uptick at both orders and shipments in Canada in Q3 that we think continue into Q4. As far as the order rates, certainly getting a strong pickup in the order rates on the industrial side, industrial heat tracing, and starting to see the benefits of some of those petrochemical, particularly sulfur orders that Randy mentioned earlier and we’re starting to see some fairly strong encouraging news on what’s happening in energy in that space. And so we feel pretty optimistic heading into Q4 that we’re starting to see those orders pick up in a way that could be helpful in the future.
Randall Hogan:
And I’d add, one of the things, as we've talked before, we’ve gone underneath the segments we’ve gone to 19 focus platforms to drive growth. In the thermal areas what that did was we broke out the commercial thermal business, commercial thermal solutions, and that focus has led to higher growth. I mentioned in the script that we’ve seen some nice stocking orders in preparation for – or as a result of the cold winter last year we actually had stock out last winter with the heat tracing for snow melt and rail protection and et cetera. And so our business, with the focus we have, we've been able to get out front make sure the stock is in place for what might be needed for this upcoming winter and that whole focus has led to some more innovations in terms of other applications in the commercial space for install on hot water and some other interesting applications. So thermal is looking pretty good.
Mike Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
And then at a higher level, obviously you guys took down revenue expectations last quarter. There is still talk of push outs and there is a few moving pieces within the portfolio. I guess what I’m asking is if you take out the FX swings with the strengthening dollar here, relative to your expectations, how much on a revenue line on a forward basis has really changed? So maybe you could just talk about a couple of the puts and takes as you see versus where you guys laid out expectations last quarter?
John Stauch:
Yes. The way we do FX is we take the ending rate at the end of September of about 28 on euro, and there's other currencies of course, but that one had the biggest impact. And so if you would take that into next year and assume that we’re tracking right around where the euros to dollar is today, that is roughly a 1% headwind next year and that is current views. We can forecast where the currency is going to go. The way I would tell you is every penny of euro to dollar movement is worth about 10 million to Pentair on an annual basis.
Randall Hogan:
On the revenue line.
John Stauch:
On the revenue line. And what it gives the operating income line is the natural transactional benefits that also occurs of not being substantial headwind. Other than that, I think we’ll be watching as we head into next year where the Valves & Control backlog is and how that impacts next year. And then we’ve had a couple of headwinds. We’ve had this retail issues in flow which is about a point of revenue to Pentair and that continues next year. So, I mean there is puts and takes. At the same time, the industrial and the thermal is performing at a higher level.
Randall Hogan:
But I'd say with the exception of FX, we kind of see the world where we did when we talked last quarter. I mean FX is different. But other than that...
Mike Halloran - Robert W. Baird:
That makes sense. And that’s what I thought you were driving to. So, appreciate the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs:
So, my first question is -- really just not to delve few much into the oil & gas pressures that we’ve seen of late, but perhaps maybe you can talk a little bit about the quoting activity that you mentioned, it was lower this quarter. Is that a seasonal factor? How much of that related to what you were hearing from your oil and gas customers? And specifically going back to the question that was asked earlier on your exposure, when you talk about your upstream exposure, what percentage of your business is linked to longer term projects versus shorter term projects?
Randall Hogan:
On that one, I can’t give you how it splits in here right now. I don’t know if John, you can get that?
John Stauch:
Yes. So, I mean yes, Q3 is seasonal. We inherited some businesses that used to have a fiscal year of September. So just to remind everyone, it used to be a big push for them because it was a fiscal year end. But naturally, Q3 would be a lighter quoting activity given kind of shutdowns in August in Europe and that kind of leaking over in the United States lifestyle. When it comes to projects, large projects do make up about 70% of our overall quote activity still today and so we are looking for large projects. I want to define large projects as anything over $1 million to $5 million. These aren't mega projects at all. They're just larger valve order rates. So those continue to be the trends that we are looking to. And like Randy said, the quarters have been very volatile and what we’ve been looking to is the six-month, the trailing month order rates to try to get some sense of normality as to where these markets are going.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs:
And so is it fair to say in a sense necessarily from the conversations you were having with your customers that the project push outs we’ve been talking about for quite some time now, but there wasn’t really -- was there much of a change in the quarter and in the tone relating to the projects that you’re looking at?
John Stauch:
We would have expected to be up modestly in orders entering into the quarter and we came out around flat. So there were a couple of projects that we could point to that felt like they slipped primarily around EPC actions and activities that have pushed those out. And so that’s consistent with what I think you’re hearing from others. And we don’t feel like there is any share loss in there and therefore we feel like as the market comes back, we’re going to participate in that.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs:
Okay. And just one follow-up question on the margins, because look, the margins in your Valves & Controls business was really strong this quarter. The expectation as you head into 4Q is another really strong quarter. So, two follow-ups there. One, can you tell me the OMT headwind that you’re expecting in 4Q versus 3Q? And then secondly, you’re basically expecting to see about 280 basis points of margin expansion in 4Q. Just help me understand the confidence in that number from where we sit today.
John Stauch:
Yes. So we're expecting 5 million of OMT in Q4, which is about 1 million higher than it was in Q3, but no tracking to the 20 million on the annual basis. That’s fairly consistent. The margins last year, just to remind you, we had a little challenge in a couple of our factories and a couple of...
Randall Hogan:
We had one big project too that shifted.
John Stauch:
One big project that was a very low margin project. So, when you take a look at it sequentially, it looks more normal. And we feel like Q3 performance is indicative of how we are performing in our factories and the sourcing benefits we’re receiving and the mix of projects that we’re shipping. So we feel comfortable heading into Q4 with that same margin look.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones – Stifel Nicolaus:
If we go back to the Valves & Controls business, you said you were looking at order rates pretty closely with the decline in oil and gas. If you looked more at the short cycles part of that business, have you seen any meaningful change there over the last couple of months with the price decline in oil?
Randall Hogan:
Well, we were softer in short-cycle orders than we'd have liked to have been in the third quarter. That’s largely due to lower mining activity and lower power than it is in oil and gas. As when we take a look at what the change rate was, not so big a difference in oil and gas.
Nathan Jones – Stifel Nicolaus:
Okay. You also called out softer Middle East relative to some tough comps from projects last year. It’s pretty typical of the Middle East to build a lot, digest for a while, build a lot, digest for while. It sounds like we are in that digesting period. Can you talk about the outlook there and where you think we are in those cycles, maybe when you expect to pick up in Middle East?
Randall Hogan:
Well, I would say second half next year would be when we would expect to see it. I mean there is some activity in terms of quotations now that wouldn’t hit sales until the second half of next year.
Nathan Jones – Stifel Nicolaus:
So you would expect orders to start hitting maybe six months before that?
Randall Hogan:
Yeah.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Scott Graham from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Scott Graham - Jefferies:
When we look at the fourth quarter sales guidance and we adjust for the FX, it doesn’t really look a lot different than what we saw in the third quarter. Yes, we've had a bunch of negative headlines in press from second quarter till now. Is this essentially a function of your saying -- or are you essentially saying to us that your customers have really not -- their orders have not been impacted. And again, the company as a whole I am talking about here. I think that there was some fear of that out there heading into the quarter and you guys are in a lot of markets. So just as a general statement, are you not seeing your customers pull back off of some of these negative headlines?
Randall Hogan:
Well, let me start with your last point. We do serve a diverse set of end markets and they are not all moving together. And they don't all move with move oil and gas. Even within oil and gas, as I mentioned, the lower prices are actually good for some applications. But, we think food and beverage is still strong. We think our residential position in the U.S. is going to continue to give us growth, albeit maybe at a little bit more moderate rate. And so we think that particularly those two businesses are quite good. Europe is the thing that is weaker now than we thought it would be. So we are cautious on oil and gas. But again, oil and gas is just part of our energy exposure and energy is only 28% of our sales. So oil and gas is less than 15% or so. I will give you exact number. So we look at all of those end markets as important to us. And particularly the industrial North American growth and capital spending is a huge driver for us. And we saw that in the third quarter and you can see what it does when we get some growth there if we don’t expect to book another 8% in the fourth quarter then.
Scott Graham - Jefferies:
It sounds like there was nothing knee-jerk from what you saw in the quarter, essentially?
Randall Hogan:
Right.
Scott Graham - Jefferies:
The second question is more about the intended usage of cash next year. With sort of the reset to the guidance and the divestiture of that business, kind of looking at that $4.50 maybe a little bit differently, is there a chance that we could see some M&A mixed into your cash usage next year on top of share repurchases?
Randall Hogan:
Yeah.
John Stauch:
There's a chance, yes.
Randall Hogan:
There's a chance.
Scott Graham - Jefferies:
Okay. From anything sizable? Are you no longer looking at small things? Are you looking at things that are maybe a little more sized as the company is larger?
John Stauch:
We are always actively looking at and we have been actively looking hard. We think that we have proven that we can integrate. And there is some of our platforms and businesses that are -- certainly have an appetite to do deals and have the capacity to do deals. So we are constantly looking and we got to have the right price between the seller and the buyer and those things have to line up. So it’s hard to predict.
Scott Graham - Jefferies:
Fair enough. In the absence of M&A though, we should, I think realistically then, expect more share repurchases in 2015 kind of maybe not along the lines of year and a half ago, but maybe something along the lines of maybe the last couple of quarters that we have seen?
Randall Hogan:
Currently we are a new company, but we used to be -- before our merger we had 250 million in cash flow, that was a big deal. We are going to do over 800 million and as we get bigger it's going to be in the billion dollar range . Over the last -- since the merger, which was just two years ago, close to two years ago, we have returned almost -- we have almost done 2 billion in share buybacks already. So we see the benefit of doing that. At that level and with that rate, it would be pretty dramatic. But we do believe in returning shareholders -- giving shareholders return. And we have done it about 38 years in a row – or was it 39 -- 38 ears in a row with our dividend increases. And our belief is that capital should be used, not wasted.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
John, just back to your comment about we expect strong orders in the fourth quarter, can you just clarify that? I mean, is that just translating some of this quoting activity into orders?
John Stauch:
Yes. What I was saying is that obviously we’re going to put the pedal to the metal on trying to get as much orders as possible. And there still is activity out there. And as Randy mentioned, we can’t just be wed to the price of oil and there is a lot of other markets in which we serve that we’re focused on. So, I mean we've got to keep going after it and there is still a good solid quote log heading into Q4 and we want to continue to take advantage of that.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
And then just on this $4.50 number, clearly you’re doing a lot more buyback here than certainly I would have thought. That helps. You seem to be pushing pretty hard still on productivity and you should get some OMT benefit. But can you maybe frame how you think about -- what do you need in terms of top line growth to kind of approach that $4.50 number?
John Stauch:
I mean, I think just to remind everybody, the $4.50 was in response to the $5 target with about a quarter of that related to losing water transport contribution, the other quarter due to macro environment and that’s all at a point in time. So as we talked about earlier, mid December we’ll be giving guidance heading into next year which will frame kind of how we feel about the overall contribution based upon what we see in December. That will include our Q4 order rates and include current foreign exchange views, include where we think the balance sheet participates in that and we'll have a better insight to what to provide. Right now there is really nothing out there against that number.
Randall Hogan:
Yes. Where we are in our process right now, over the next month and a half we will be doing the heavy lifting and doing the discipline planning. Productivity will always be part of our strategy. We plan our work and we execute that and I think you can see in our integration and you can see in our consistent productivity overtime, we know how to do that. What we'll be doing is building that detailed growth plan. That will roll off into our budget. Those budgets will then form the guidance we give in December. So we'll tell you then.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg from the Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners:
Can you actually just give an update on where you stand with the synergy number? I know you've been kind of moving away from it. But you talked about 200 million completed as of the end of Q2. Where do you stand at the end of Q3? And to the extent you can, maybe what the bridge will be between '14 and '15?
John Stauch:
I think the 200 million was – it might be the same number, but it was also the repositioning our cost takeout that we were actually driving to, so permanent cost structure reduction. I mean, as we gave the update, we’re looking to get over $275 million of synergies by the end of next year, which was the new number exclusive of the water transport contribution. And given where we ended Q3, it’s fair to say we’re tracking stronger than that number. And if you would push me for a number, I would say we're $10 million to $15 million, maybe $20 million better than expectation. We’ve been blending this in. What we’re really looking at is what we do in gross margin and how much that gross margin is coming from lean and sourcing, and then what are we doing on cost structure, primarily G&A, and what is that percentage of sales in the reductions there. That’s really where we’re driving it. It falls under standardization category, the reductions in ERPs, reductions in accounting centers and then where are we as far as lean evolution in the all factories, including legacy Pentair side as well. We feel really good about what we've achieved so far.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners:
Yeah, it's been good. Another question, just coming back, you talked about your strong position in LNG and chemical. When you’re bidding for these projects, are you really appointed as a sole source supplier as valves and heat tracking equipment on these projects or are they breaking it up amongst multiple suppliers?
Randall Hogan:
It really depends on what the specific quotes are. Sometimes it will be a multiple package. The range of technologies and then performance characteristics of valves are pretty broad. So for instance we’re a leader in triple offset valve, we’re a leader in pressure relief valves. And all of those get specified and you bid those, sometimes you bid them as a package. The EPC and the end customer in our large project will decide how those split up the packages. They'll let the DCS go and then they'll do the pumps and then when they get to the piping and the valves, each of those common packages. So it’s not a one-size-fits-all on how it gets bid. And then it depends on, I mentioned LNG. LNG has a lot of cryogenic applications. We’re a leader in that in terms of our valves, our triple offset valves and our pressure relief valves. So we tend to have higher share in those applications. Other applications, maybe not, so maybe not so high a share. So it's kind of hard to generalize.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners:
Can I just sneak one last quick one in? I see you changed your CapEx modestly to downside, same with D&A. Can you just address what the thought behind that was?
John Stauch:
Yes. I mean it's really as simple as every year the GBUs -- our businesses and segments start out with a plan and we approve the capital if it goes along and we make those capital decisions based on the returns. And usually they overestimate in the beginning on what we're going to spend. And usually by the end of the year we get to the correct number. So we’re just kind of getting to the correct number.
Randall Hogan:
Brian, in my 14 years it's probably 12 out of 14 years where that's been the case.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Christopher Glynn – Oppenheimer & Co.:
Hey John, just wanted to go back to the Valves and Controls margins, sort of showed some pretty significant upside versus the margins. The plant issues last year were known and so a pretty sudden sharp uptick. I’m wondering is that just all sustainable structural step up?
John Stauch:
I think that we crossed into the upper 15%s. We are forecasting just slightly above 14.5% to 15% for Q4. The only difference is that we get a stronger level of manufacturing in the September and December we sort of have those last couple of weeks where we start to tail off which creates some absorption issues in some of the factories. So we think that we’re now at this type of run rate, we feel very good about the progress being made around sourcing, as I mentioned, and we can see margin of backlog and we’ve got a better handle on a lot of the inter-company shipments between each other. So, feeling good about the Q3 performance and feeling good about our ability to sustain it.
Christopher Glynn – Oppenheimer & Co.:
Great. And then you mentioned being aggressive to get the orders in place in the fourth quarter. Just to kind of beat the dead horse on the Valves and Controls margin sustainability. Do the second half run rates here – do they reflect the level of quoting discipline that you have room to back up a little bit?
John Stauch:
Yes. And I don’t -- I wouldn’t say that we’re necessarily backing off. But one of the things that the Valves and Controls team has done a nice job of is using Lean across the quoting activity. And we’re spending quality time on the right quotes and right engineering jobs. And when we’re doing that, we feel good about our ability to go on with a quote that we think meets our margin needs and meets the customers' value proposition. So, I think we feel good about the progress we’re making using the Lean tools outside the factory and I think you’ve seen that in our quoting activity.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Buckingham Research. Your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research:
Hey guys. I think it's me based on the announcement. On the -- just to circle upon Valves and Controls, you mentioned some of the other areas that you’re participating in and are focusing on outside of oil and gas and maybe why we shouldn’t be focused on the correction in oil prices and I get all that. But I guess thinking about a comment you made earlier, John, on 70% of the business being project related in some way, even if those projects are smaller, how much of this business that you’re going after in pockets of strength is a legacy position for Flow Control or for Valves and Controls where you’re calling on customers where you have relationships versus trying to start things from scratch and maybe in an environment where projects are getting pushed around and it’s a little tougher to kind of calling a customer for the first time?
Randall Hogan:
Yes. We have -- our brands are well known and they're known pretty much to all the EPCs and all of the oil and gas or any other customer set for that matter. But we are, for instance in sub-sea, we're not really strong in sub-sea. So, a lot of the sub-sea activity we’re not going get. We do better on land. In that category I mentioned, we do better in liquefaction stations and natural gas than we do in pipelines. And this is really more of a product mix. So, we look at all of that and we look at our hit rate and what I would like to do is I'd like to see a higher hit rate on where we’re strong and I would like to see us figure out how to get better in some of the places where our hit rate isn't. So there isn’t a general answer I can give you on that.
Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research:
I guess what drives the better hit rate though is my question. I mean clearly it’s not price. I mean you guys have been very forthright with that. Is it lead time, is it capability, is it just...
Randall Hogan:
We believe configured-to-order can help us on smaller projects in particular. Having product in stock and being able to configure to order in our 80 locations is something that we think we can do better at. That’s an idea yet, it’s not a plan. We are doing some alpha test on that that will be helpful for the smaller projects. The rest is a lot of specification work. And we’d rather be specified and take our chances than just compete on price, as you said. We have been more disciplined, we believe, on price than maybe before.
Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research:
Got you. And then John, just two follow-ups, little housekeeping items. If spot rates stay where they're at on FX, and you mentioned that point of top line headwind in the next year, what does that work out to on an EPS basis with some of these transactional benefits you get that you mentioned? And then on the share count, if you do what you claim in the fourth quarter, what is the starting share count for 2015?
John Stauch:
Yeah. So a couple of different answers there. I mean on the transactional and translational FX basis, if we saw somewhere around a $0.10 movement in the currency, that would be the impact on the revenue line of $0.10 times what I said before. $100 million on the top-line, we would be inside of a nickel is what the impact would be on EPS. That’s a model that we run quarterly and annually. And there is, as I mentioned, benefits to currency going down that offset some of the impacts of currency going down. When we take a look at where we are in share count heading into next year, we are anticipating what purchase should be made. And as of today there is $70 million remaining on the authorization and that would drive somewhere around 185 million of the share count next year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Drab from William Blair. Your line is open.
Brian Drab - William Blair:
I think at this point in the call I need to drive in some finer detail on a high level that hasn't been touched on. One comment you made today is that you are seeing a shift I think the point of entry water filtration system.
Randall Hogan:
Yeah, I said that back. I am glad you asked that. It’s point of use, not point of entry. I said it backwards. I've read that script three times and I didn't think [indiscernible]. Basically a lot more under sink, a lot more point of use versus point of entry. Point of entry has a bigger content for us and frankly a better mix of margins on the products. So I'm glad you asked.
Brian Drab - William Blair:
All right, thanks for that clarification. The related question was just going to be around that Hybrid DI system. I think it was last year with your Milwaukee team, they said that they are working hard on that product, but it didn’t seem to be at the point yet where the price was going to result in an inflection point where you'd see a significant uptick in adoption of that product. But how is that going with that Hybrid DI product?
Randall Hogan:
We are still in development. We have actually done some redesigning work to take some of the cost out and improve the efficiency of the what's called the sack, a membrane sack, and improve the control of it so that it doesn’t have to cycle as often. And so we have got that on beta test now and looking at it. We don’t have a new launch date yet to go public with. But we still have positive thoughts about what that can do in the marketplace to eliminate – we basically provide the softness.
Brian Drab - William Blair:
And then I guess you touched on this but I just wanted to ask maybe a little different way. For the fourth quarter forecast for Valves and Controls and I am just trying to get a better, a higher level of confidence in the forecast. Your forecasting plant revenue for the segment suggests a 5% sequential increase, but backlog was down sequentially in the third quarter. Is this just the typical end of your push seasonality dynamic or is there a particular vertical you have more confidence in or better than average visibility in? Thanks.
John Stauch:
Yeah. Part of the backlog decline was foreign exchange and that’s already reflected. But that rolls through over the next 12 months. So there is a small impact to Q4 related to that. It is a combination of how we feel about the shippable backlog. And then just as a reminder, we had about 35 million to 40 million of one project last year that went out on zero margin, which was in the Q4 number last year. So if you pull that out, you're going to see a little bit more revenue growth excluding that project. And year-over-year you should see the benefit of that drop through as it pertains to the operating income and where the margin. Does that help?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank Of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin - Bank Of America Merrill Lynch:
Just a question on your bridge, just going back to Slide 5. As I am think to the fourth quarter and I am thinking about your productivity price in the fourth quarter. Should we see it roughly in line with the third quarter? Because if you sort of do the math, it implies a slight deceleration.
John Stauch:
Yeah, I mean as I mentioned earlier, we don’t tend to get the same December contribution that we get out of June and September on an end of quarter basis primarily because of the way the holidays impact the last couple of weeks of shipping in the year. But all other components, inflation roughly there, little bit of headwind from foreign exchange, not a lot, and then also we expect to see a good productivity price push as well.
Andrew Obin - Bank Of America Merrill Lynch:
And just to clarify, no restructuring this quarter? And what’s the thinking -- does that mean we are accelerating in the fourth quarter?
John Stauch:
We have not taken any incremental restructuring in Q3, as you indicated. And as Randy mentioned earlier, the context of rolling up plans and taking a look at where we think we are going to be next year and what contribution we have in productivity and growth, any further decisions on that would be taken as necessary.
Andrew Obin - Bank Of America Merrill Lynch:
So are we waiting for the board meeting or right now there's plan for no restructuring in the fourth quarter, it's just a placeholder?
John Stauch:
No, we are evaluating where the markets are going. We are evaluating the confidence in the growth plans. We are evaluating the confidence in the current productivity views and how all of those things work their way into any further access we need.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Wright from Nomura Securities. Your line is open.
Jonathan Wright - Nomura Securities:
Just on SG&A, 18.7% sales this quarter. I think in the past you've talked about a long term target of 20% of that. Is there anything going on specifically in the quarter that was weighing on or bringing down SG&A or is that longer-term target now sort of sliding down a little bit? Can you get more cost out there than you originally thought?
John Stauch:
It is a combination of a couple of things. I mean one is we do think we can get more G&A out, no doubt about it, but certainly feel even on current levels of G&A, we don’t need to add any, so growth helps to leverage that down. And then we certainly -- we come up the difference by adding more into the R&D line overtime and adding to selling and marketing if necessary. And right now we’re evaluating these 19 growth platforms that Randy mentioned and we’re certainly giving them all the money that need at the moment as they earn the right to invest in more, we’ll add more to the growth pocket.
Jonathan Wright - Nomura Securities:
So looking forward, do you think SG&A as going to sales is going to be more like 18% to 19% sustainable?
John Stauch:
Yes, I think so. I mean the quarters fluctuate. So we can take a look at where your full year's coming it and right now we think around 20% is achievable and then also drifting down to 19% would not be -- there is no magic formula there.
Randall Hogan:
But we are disciples of Lean enterprise. And G&A -- no offense to anybody on my team -- G&A is considered muda in the lean concepts. Muda is waste. So we want G&A to be as productive. In a perfect world there would be no G&A.
Randall Hogan:
Operator, any more questions in the queue?
Operator:
We do have one more question from the line of David Rose. Your line is open.
David Rose – Wedbush Securities:
I don’t want to beat this to death either. But just to get a little bit more clarity around the comfort in orders for Q4, if I look at Q4 last year, you really had an exceptional period and you've got some very tough comps. Mining, as you mentioned, is not doing that great. That’s probably your easiest comparison. Help me get more comfortable on the specific projects that you’re looking at and how do we frame the risk at Q4 orders on the upside and the downside given where they were last year?
Randall Hogan:
I can say comfort is a word that I’m not familiar with while you’re projecting the future. But I mean in terms of the model, when you think about it, we look at our backlog we have and we look at what's shippable and we look at the quotation activities and that’s what we use to drive our forecast.
David Rose – Wedbush Securities:
So this is all front line, right?
John Stauch:
Yes. And I just -- what we’re doing is we’re trying to build the backlog up to get the next nine to 12 months of shippable backlog. And there is also booking shift in the order take as well. So I agree with Randy. I wouldn’t use the word comfortable. But the level of execution around consistently getting robust orders growth is where we’re trying to drive to and we are not yet ready to say that it’s not where we needed to be. But I also want to remind you it relates to a third of our business and we also are looking at all the order and the booking shift business and the other two thirds of the business. And there is, as Randy mentioned, when you see oil and gas move in a particular direction, that’s not necessarily bad for some of the industrial segments that we serve either. So all of it has got to weigh into what we think we can achieve for next year.
David Rose – Wedbush Securities:
And maybe last one is, last time we had a big disruption in Europe or at least concerns over Europe, there was a lot of destocking in the channel. Has October shaped up to be that way at all?
Randall Hogan:
I'd say too soon to tell in terms of Europe specifically. I mean, Europe was the surprise weakness and Europe was -- we had growth in Europe in the first half and then it declined in the third quarter. So that’s a note of caution in terms of what we’re looking at.
John Stauch:
It was one of the bigger pull-backs in September -- with the Europe performance in September was really soft.
Randall Hogan:
And for Europe, because July and August are vacation months, it’s all about September in Europe. So making sense of what that means when you have a weak September in Europe takes a little while.
Randall Hogan:
Thank you. So that’s it then. You can give the calling information please, operator. Thank you for listening.
Operator:
Thank you. As a reminder, today’s call was recorded and is available for playback at approximately 12 PM Eastern Time until 11:59 Eastern Time on November 21st. Please have your participant dial-in number ready, (800)-585-8367 or (855)-859-2056 or internationally on (404)-537-3406 and then to your conference ID to listen. Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
James C. Lucas - Vice President of Investor Relations Randall J. Hogan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Member of International Committee John L. Stauch - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Hamzah Mazari - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners, LLC
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kim, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q2 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
James C. Lucas:
Thanks, Kim. And welcome to Pentair's Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today is Randy Hogan, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Stauch, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second quarter 2014 performance, as well as our third quarter and full year 2014 outlook and updates to our 2015 target as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and 10-Q in today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in Investor section of Pentair's website. We will reference to these slides throughout our prepared remarks. All references today will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise indicated, for which the non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will make sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall J. Hogan:
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Before looking more closely at the second quarter results, I thought it would be helpful to provide a summary of what we will cover on today's call. We have a lot of information to share and we want to leave time for your questions. The second quarter met our expectations despite ongoing economic headwinds in our 2 largest verticals, Energy and Industrial. We announced this morning that our board has approved our strategic decision to exit the Water Transport business, which we will cover in more detail shortly. We're reducing our 2014 expectations mostly due to our exit of the Water Transport business, but also due to a reduction in what we see as a more modest topline outlook. This is based on an Industrial recovery that's slower than originally anticipated and continued pushouts within Energy. In particular, we continue to see lower-than-anticipated contributions from Canadian oil sands. And while we continue to win with both small and large customers, many of the large projects have continued delays in releasing capital spending. Six months before the start of 2015, we do not see enough strength in the Energy and Industrial markets in particular to hold the 2015 $5 EPS target. We're adjusting that target to $4.50, reflecting the exit of our Water Transport business and factoring in these lingering economic uncertainties and ongoing deferrals in Energy CapEx. While we have continued the overdrive on synergies and are seeing some growth, it's not enough to close the gap. Nevertheless, we're still targeting EPS compound growth rate greater than 20% overall across 2014 and '15. As we have overall -- as we have overdelivered on synergies, we continue to show the power of PIMS adoption in the businesses that we acquired and our ability to integrate the acquisitions. Lean enterprise is a part of our DNA now and it's gratifying to see it delivering this way. The results is that our free cash flow continues to be strong in capital allocation disciplined as we continue to run the company for the long-term, focused on creating sustainable, long-term shareholder value. Now let's turn to Slide 5 for a review of our second quarter performance. This slide is a review of our second quarter including Water Transport. We will have a more detailed look in the quarter in a few moments excluding the results of our Water Transport business. With it, second quarter revenues declined 3% on a reported basis. Adjusted operating income increased 5% and adjusted operating margins expanded 110 basis points to 14.8%. Adjusted EPS grew 13% to $1.04, which met our outlook of $1.02 to $1.05. Please turn to Slide 6 for a review of our balance sheet and cash flow. Free cash flow was $384 million in the quarter, which followed a small usage in the first quarter from the seasonal working capital build in many of our Residential businesses. We expect to generate full year free cash flow greater than 110% of net income in 2014. Our balance sheet remains strong, ending debt with approximately $2.7 billion or $2.5 billion on a net debt basis. And the second quarter returned nearly $250 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. At the end of the second quarter, we had approximately $700 million remaining under our current $1 billion repurchase authorization. We recently increased our quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share from $0.25 per share, which marks our 38th consecutive year of annual dividend increase. Our ROIC ended the quarter above 10%. We continue to have a lot of opportunities in the working capital front in a number of our businesses and we would expect to make further progress as the year continues. Please turn to Slide 7 as we look more closely at our rationale to exit our Water Transport business. As we mentioned in the beginning of the call, we announced our decision to exit our Water Transport business and move it to discontinued operations in the third quarter. As we discussed at length last quarter, this is a business that came with the Flow Control acquisition that was completed nearly 2 years ago that has consistently underperformed our expectations. At the time the acquisition was completed, Water Transport generated over $700 million in annual revenue with operating income of $50 million and had a couple of large projects in the backlog and several others in quote stage. At that point in time, the expectation for 2014 was for revenue to decline sharply, but operating income continued to remain near $50 million. Shortly after the deal closed, we saw some larger projects that canceled and while there have historically been a flow of smaller projects each year, there's been virtually no new activity of consequence over the past year. This is due in part to the impact of the Australian economy from a sharp downturn in mining. We worked aggressively to rightsize the business. It has remained profitable despite revenue levels, declining significantly from where it was expected to be. We believe the decision to exit the business will allow us to better allocate resources to growth areas. The decision to exit the Water Transport platform is consistent with our new platform approach, leaving us with 19 technology platforms. We aligned around these platforms at the beginning of this year within our 4 reporting segments. We have leaders in place to drive all 19 platforms and have recently completed our first round of strategic reviews with them. The platform approach allows us to more clearly define and invest in areas that have differentiated profitable growth opportunities. This approach also helps us identify businesses that may not have the same prospects and will have to play a different role for Pentair. We've talked for some time about flowing our resources to our best opportunities and this platform structure enables that more effectively. Please turn to Slide 8 as we review the past performance of Water Transport net impact on reported results. To provide a baseline of Pentair excluding Water Transport, we want to share the impact on last year's result without it. On a reported basis, sales were up 3% in 2013 and adjusted EPS grew 26%. Without Water Transport in last year's results, sales would have been up 4% and adjusted earnings per share would have grown 29%. Going forward, we'll exclude Water Transport's results from the discussion of this quarter's results. So let's turn to Slide 9 as we look at Pentair's second quarter results excluding Water Transport. For the second quarter, sales grew 2%, with 3 of our 4 segments growing. Adjusted operating income was up 13%, adjusted operating margins increased to 150 basis points to 15.2% and adjusted EPS grew 21% to $1.02. Again, a very solid quarter of execution. Now let's turn to Slide 10 for a more detailed look at our second quarter performance. The waterfall on the left-hand side of the page shows that our 2% sales growth was the result of 1 point from volume and 1 point from price. FX was a slight positive in the quarter as strength in the euro was partially offset by continued weakness in the Australian and Canadian dollars. We saw many of our markets firming throughout the quarter with backlog and most product platforms expanding. The right half of the page shows second quarter Pentair operating profits and margins. Operating margin expansion of 150 basis points was driven once again by strong productivity, which includes our synergies. We continue to gain momentum on both Lean and sourcing initiatives and our standardization effort continued their progress. As the top line has remained sluggish, we've taken further repositioning actions to accelerate our productivity results. While the top line continues to be slower than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year, we continue to focus on the elements within our control and feel good about our ability to continue delivering on productivity and synergies. Now let's turn to Slide 11 for a performance review of our largest segment, Valves & Controls. For the second quarter, Valves & Controls grew 2%, which is comprised of 1 point of volume and positive 1 point from FX translation. This was slightly better than our forecast. Orders grew 7% from their comparable period 1 year ago and backlog remains firm with a slight sequential increase to $1.4 billion. During the quarter, oil and gas showed a slight increase. Power was up modestly, Process grew 6% and Mining was down once again. The right half of the page shows second quarter Valves & Controls operating profits and margins. Adjusted operating margins expanded 60 basis points to 14.1%, which includes $4 million in cost for the segment's operating model transformation or OMT. As a reminder, we expect the OMT investment in Valves & Controls to continue on an annual basis through 2016. But that investment is expected to drive nearly $80 million of annual operating income savings once completed and an overall tax benefit to Pentair of roughly 3 points through the optimization of the global Valves & Controls structure into Switzerland. Now let's turn to Slide 12 for a look at the orders and backlog for Valves & Controls. As you can see on Slide 11, the Valves & Controls backlog is broken down in 4 key industries, 3 of which fall into our Energy vertical. Those are Oil & Gas, Power and Mining and one in our Industrial vertical, which is the Process business. Overall, backlog ended the quarter near $1.4 billion, which is consistent with where it has been since we acquired the business in the end of 2012. We saw healthy order growth in Process, Oil & Gas and Power, but Mining orders were down due to a combination of a tough year-over-year comp and continued weakness seen throughout the mining industry. As we've seen many energies subverticals experience pushout for several quarters now, we're encouraged by the strength in Oil & Gas orders during the second quarter. In particular, North America was strong in LNG and pipelines. We'd like to see a few consecutive quarters of strong order growth before we start to view a trend materializing. The quoting activity remains healthy. With Power, backlog has remained steady but orders remain lumpy. While Mining is the smallest part of Valves & Controls, we're seeing signs that a bottom may be near and since we have a good installed base, we expect to see stable MRO demand. Within Industrial process, orders and backlogs are up and we anticipate continued order growth as capital spending in North American capacity expansion in particular continues. Now let's move to Slide 13 for a review of Process Technologies. Process Technologies reported solid top line growth of 4%, with volumes contributing 3% and a positive 1% from price. Residential & Commercial remains strong with 10% growth during the quarter, as our Aquatic Systems business benefited from healthy demand during its seasonally strongest quarter. Food & Beverage was down modestly as the business faced a tough year-over-year comp with strong beverage shipments in the comparable period 1 year ago. But we still expect Beverage to be positive for the year. Infrastructure, now a small piece of Process Technologies, was down another 11%, as demand within the global desalination industries remains weak. The right half of the page shows second quarter Process Technologies' operating profits and margins. Operating income grew 17% and operating margins expanded 200 basis points to 18.6%. We discussed last quarter a slow start to the year for the segment and the impact of negative mix. But we saw that trend reversed during the second quarter, as Aquatics, one of our higher-margin businesses, had another strong performance. Although price was not quite enough to offset inflation, we saw a strong productivity that contributed to the robust margin expansion in the quarter. Now let's move to Slide 14 for a look at Flow Technologies. Flow Technologies reported a 2% revenue decline, as the point of positive price contribution was not enough to offset a 3% reduction in volume. Residential & Commercial was down modestly as we continue to emphasize the more profitable pro channel and deemphasized the lower-margin retail business. Food & Beverage, which is ag in this segment, was up a modest 2%, a sign that our agricultural business is delivering differentiated growth since overall agricultural demand has been slower this year, particularly on the irrigation side. Industrial was up 6%, led by continued global expansion in our fire suppression product lines. The right half of the page shows second quarter Flow Technologies operating profits and margins. Operating income was up slightly, with operating margins expanding 40 basis points to 13.9%. Mix did have a negative impact due to the lower contribution from Infrastructure and Food & Beverage. We continue to focus on improving productivity within Flow Technologies and have actions in place to drive margin expansion as the top line remains more challenged short-term. Let's now turn to Slide 15 for a look at Technical Solutions' results. Technical Solutions grew 3% in the quarter, with 1% volume growth and a 2% contribution from price. Industrial was down modestly in the quarter due to slower-than-anticipated recovery for our Equipment Protection business. Energy was down 11% as our Thermal business has seen continued weakness in Canada. Infrastructure, which is primarily datacom and telecom in this segment, was a bright spot, with a 33% gain reading out on our Electronics business driven by improving demand in new products. The right half of the page shows second quarter Technical Solutions' operating profits and margins. Operating income grew 10% and operating margin expanded 120 basis points to 18.8%. Productivity and synergies remained strong, but slower growth in our profitable Equipment Protection businesses did limit margin expansion in the quarter. Standardization and repositioning remain on track, but as our most profitable segment, more growth is needed to leverage that high profitability. Let's now turn to Slide 16 for a closer look at the total Pentair growth profile. During the second quarter, we saw solid growth in developed countries while fast growth regions were mixed. U.S. grew at low single-digit rates. We saw a larger decline in Canada, primarily in our Technical Solutions business, where the oil sands impact reads out. Meanwhile, our other businesses were up modestly in Canada. In Western Europe, we saw a very healthy mid-single-digit growth with all segments positive. China and Latin America showed growth, but we saw declines in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The weakness in the Middle East was due to a very large project that shipped last year. We still see attractive growth prospects for the Middle East longer-term. Energy continues to see demand shift to the right, to face the tough comp in the second quarter. We expect Energy to turn positive in the second half based on the strength of our backlog in Valves & Controls and overall improvements in order activity, particularly in Oil & Gas. Industrial continues to grow modestly. While we expect that overall CapEx activity to begin to accelerate, this is a trend that has not materialized for the last 2 years and we believe it is more realistic to taper our second-half expectations. We experienced healthy mid-single-digit growth in our Residential & Commercial vertical, driven by strong Residential demand globally and in the Infrastructure vertical led by our Electronics business. Food & Beverage faced a very tough comparison and was flat in the quarter, but the growth prospects for this vertical remains strong for the year. Our North American Residential business have continued to see growing in demand and Europe and China showed healthy demand for our Residential products as well. While a smaller piece of our Residential & Commercial vertical, we continue to see improvements in Commercial demand, too. Infrastructure enjoyed a strong quarter and we expect a good year of growth on the strength of our Electronics business and Technical Solutions. Although comps will begin to get tougher later this year, overall demand has remained relatively steady for the past few quarters while we wait to see how and when Infrastructure and the water businesses rebound. Food & Beverage is expected to post strong mid-single-digit growth for the full year, following strong double-digit growth last year. While the U.S. agricultural base businesses has slowed on lower farm demand, our businesses are experiencing growth due to expanded coverage from global expansion. Beverage continues to have a healthy backlog and foodservice continues to experience strong international growth. Let's now turn to Slide 17 for an update on our guidance. We're updating our full year adjusted 2014 EPS guidance to a range of $3.65 to $3.70 from a range of $3.85 to $4. The principal reason for the revision in guidance is the exclusion of our Water Transport business, which is about $0.20 of the guidance reduction. At the top of the range, we've also lowered our full year organic growth expectations as continued delays in energy met slower global industrial recovery are factored into our expectations. Energy started the year very slow and while our orders in backlog give us increased confidence the first half declines will turn to growth in the second half, it will not be enough to overcome the slow start to the year. Our cost actions remain on track. Our cash flow remains very strong. We continue to have flexibility with our balance sheet and adjusted EPS remain on track to grow an expected 20% for the full year. We continue to be confident about the elements within our control, but many of our end market segments remain lower-than-expected and we feel it's prudent to adjust our second-half outlook accordingly. Please turn to Slide 18, labeled Q2 Assessment and Full Year Outlook. We delivered on our first-half expectations as operating income grew 15%, despite only 1% gain on the topline. Operating margins expanded 180 basis points to 13.8% and EPS grew 25% in the first half. As we entered the second half, we're expecting a modest pickup within Industrial and our orders and backlog gives us some expectation that Energy will accelerate in the second half. While we're seeing some signs of inflation, price and productivity are expected to continue to offset inflation and projected synergies remain ahead of our initial expectations. We also will continue our OMT investment in Valves & Controls in the second half. We're expecting the top line to grow 2% to 3% for the full year, operating income to grow roughly 12%, operating margin expansion of 120 basis points to just over 14% and EPS growth of roughly 20%. We believe we are on track to generate free cash flow greater than 110% of net income. With that, I'll turn the call over to John.
John L. Stauch:
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to Slide #19, titled EPS Impact on 2015 $5 Per Share Target. As Randy mentioned at the beginning of the call, we are updating our 2015 EPS target to $4.50. While the $5 target is a number that we have been committed to, both internally and externally, the current economic backdrop is just not strong enough to overcome the impact of moving Water Transport to discontinued operations. We are still very excited in the value creation capability from this transformational deal and continue to expect strong organic growth rates, double-digit operating information for the base, plus the benefit of synergies and the balance sheet, just not quite at the levels necessary to offset the ongoing deferrals in Energy CapEx and lingering economic uncertainties. We're quite pleased with our ability to overdrive in synergies, which we believe speaks well to the power of PIMS and our ability to integrate acquisitions and the higher synergies we needed to offset lower core organic growth rates than were originally anticipated. We have seen continued deferrals in Energy CapEx and a muted Industrial recovery has contributed to grow not quite at the levels of our original expectations. Our decision to exit our Water Transport business removes $0.25 from our base. And as we highlighted earlier in the call, we believe this is the right strategic decision to allow us to reallocate resources to other platforms that have differentiated profitable growth opportunities. We've seen lower CapEx in many areas, but particularly in the Canadian oil sands. We have seen 2 larger projects continued to be delayed and although we have secured supplier-of-choice contracts for these projects, these are the types of pushouts that we have been experiencing with projects of all sizes. This does not mean that these projects will not eventually become revenue, but rather, we are choosing not to keep focusing on the recurring delays and will welcome the revenue if and when they finally come to fruition. The $4.50 EPS targets still represents a 21% EPS CAGR, which we believe continues to demonstrate the shareowner value creation from this transformation deal. Please turn to Slide #20 labeled Disciplined Capital Allocation. We've used this slide in the past to remind everyone of the strength of our cash flow and the flexibility our improved balance sheet gives us. We continue to create further opportunities for more value creation, both on the cash we generate and the leverage opportunity from the incremental EBITDA. All in, we expect to have significant capacity for further bolt-on acquisitions and share buybacks as opportunities arise. We recently raised our dividend for the 38th consecutive year and we still have roughly $700 million left under our current share repurchase authorization. After looking at our current dividend commitment and our buyback authorization, we still have capacity. We've continued operating performance of nearly $1.3 billion to fuel further acquisitions or buybacks. This is nice flexibility to have and we will continue to make smart capital allocations to improve overall shareholder value. We continue to run the company for the long term and we'll not exhaust our balance sheet flexibility simply to reach a near-term target. We'll continue to optimize our balance sheet strength to create sustained, long-term shareholder value. Please turn to Slide #21 labeled Deal Economics Overview. We continue to believe in the long-term reasons why this was truly a transformational deal for Pentair. We acquired 2 leading businesses in Valves & Controls and Thermal Management that further diversified our portfolio and strengthened our position globally, particularly with the exposure to Energy. Our portfolio was better-balanced today, not only from a vertical and geographic standpoint, but also with stronger technologies. We still expect Energy to recover, albeit later-than-expected, and the progress we have made on the cost side is expected to read out in strong leverage as this important vertical rebounds. We have made great progress with regards to our standardization and integration efforts, particularly in Lean and sourcing, but there's still a long runway ahead as evidenced by G&A levels that have more room for improvement. When looking at the value of the transaction after excluding Water Transport, we acquired 2 leading businesses in Valves & Controls and Thermal at less than 9x EBITDA, which is a multiple that cannot be found in today's M&A environments. We believe this deal has demonstrated our ability to create significant value for our shareholders at a very reasonable price. Please turn to Slide #22 labeled Q3 2014 Pentair Outlook. For the third quarter of 2014, we expect sales to be up approximately 3% to $1.76 billion. Valves & Controls is expected to be up roughly 3% based on our scheduled backlog and seasonal improvement in the shorter-cycle MRO business. Process Technologies is expected to grow nearly 8%, led by Aquatic Systems related to the strong end of the pool season and backlog infiltration and process. We're anticipating Flow Technologies to be flat with tougher comps in ag and continued deemphasis of our lower-margin retail business. And Technical Solutions is expected to be up roughly 4%, as comps at Thermal get a little easier and improved daily order rates and equipment protection continue. We are expecting adjusted operating income to be up roughly 8% and operating margins to expand 50 basis points to approximately 14.4%. This includes ongoing OMT investments in Valves & Controls, as well as a negative mix in several of our businesses. We expect mix to be more favorable in the fourth quarter, which is factored into our full year forecast. Our EPS forecast for the third quarter is a range of $0.93 to $0.95, or an increase of roughly 15% versus 2013. We are expecting the tax rate to remain around 23.5% and the share count to be around 193 million shares. Please turn to Slide #23 labeled Full Year 2014 Pentair Outlook. Our revised 2014 adjusted EPS outlook of $3.65 to $3.70 represents growth of roughly 20%. For the year, we expect the top line to grow approximately 2% to $7.15 billion, which excludes Water Transport. We expect Valves & Controls to be flat for the full year after a slow start to the year, but the second quarter order growth gives us increased visibility that the topline growth rate should accelerate modestly in the second half. Process Technologies is expected to be up roughly 6%, with strength in Aquatics, Beverage Systems and Foodservice. Flow Technologies is expected to be flat for the year. Technical Solutions is anticipated to grow roughly 3% for the full year, with Electronics remaining strong, equipment Protection growing modestly and Thermal seeing continued slowness in Canada, offset by a seasonal pickup in the business in the fourth quarter. Adjusted operating income is expected to be up 12% to just over $1 billion, but this does include roughly $20 million of OMT investments within Valves & Controls. Operating margins are anticipated to be up nearly 120 basis points to 14.1%. For the full year, we expect the tax rate to be around 23.5% and the share count to be about 196 million shares. Free cash flow remains on track to be north of 110% of net income. Kim, can you please open the line for questions? Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Steve Winoker from Sanford Bernstein.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
I'm sure it was hard for each a few to come off of the $5 promise, so I understand that. But I'm just now trying to understand, you still got 18% EPS growth in your '15 over '14 plan at the midpoint, I guess. And when I look at that, it'd be hopeful to understand the cost -- the operating margin and cost synergy side again. On the op margin assumption now, where are you next year versus this year?
John L. Stauch:
I'm sorry, the question, Steve, was op margin or...
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Op margin expansion 2015 over 2014.
John L. Stauch:
About 120 basis points.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. And the cost synergy, that old $310 million number, you keep talking about overdriving now. Of the $310 million I'm talking about, full cumulative, where is that coming out now?
John L. Stauch:
Well, I think we -- the $310 million, which I do acknowledge, had about $35 million or so that would be moved to discontinued ops along with Water Transport, so I think that would give you roughly a $275 million ongoing synergy rate that we think would apply to the continuing [indiscernible]
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. And that's still the same number. You're not changing that at all, the $275 million?
Randall J. Hogan:
Yes, Steve, we're not giving -- I mean, it's -- just to put this in perspective, we're not -- we're going to go back to our normal giving actual guidance for the year in -- when we get -- when we talk in December, which is our fair practice. We felt, as all our degrees of freedom began to get pinched away for us against the $5, we felt we owed it to you to tell you. So the way to think about the $4.50 is we know Water Transport goes, but we also looked at all the puts and takes, the overdrive and synergies, the -- frankly, the lack of confidence that we have in these head fix we keep getting from the economy. And we've been counting on those to come through on a positive way. And they're coming through, even though we're getting some growth in line with what looks like everyone else's, it's just not something I have a lot of confidence in right now. So that's -- so think about the $4.50 that way. We don't have a definitive guidance -- we're not giving a definitive guidance. The $5 was a target and it was something that we held out there for everybody; us and you. We had multiple degrees of freedom to get there. It's 6 months before 2015. I...
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay, okay. Fair enough. And Randy, I remember the last time we talked about Water Transport, you described it as "What do you do with an empty bag of groceries?" And so now, we're putting it over and this is -- it sounds like obviously the right strategic decision over many years to exit this. But what's your confidence in, I guess, even that process moving forward? How are you thinking about it now?
Randall J. Hogan:
Well, I mean, we really did feel like we needed to build a backlog. And the business, the people in the business have worked so hard and committed to the brutal activities necessary to keep their nose above water and it's profitable. There's 2 reasons to discuss. One is it really isn't part of our strategic roadmap going forward. And right now, it has been a distraction within Flow Technologies. Flow Technologies without them doesn't look that great, right? And now they can focus, really can -- the Flow Technologies can really focus on driving the growth in the areas that look quite attractive for them and continue the exit of the retail side of residential and really focus on what we believe is the bright future for Flow Technologies. We've moved -- we're moving the business to actually report to our VP of Ops, which reports up to John. And we're just beginning the process, but we believe that there are prospects for the business in someone else's hands. And I don't know who that is. We haven't started the process yet. It's early days. We just went through a rigorous discussion with our Board about the right way forward and we think this is certainly the right way forward. And this -- our platform, I mentioned this in the script, this platform approach is really quite helpful in that regard in terms of really identifying and letting us differentiate who's going to -- where we're going to flow more of our resources, a much more granular approach than the GBU approach.
Steven E. Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Right. And I fully appreciate that. Just before I hand it off, last quick thing. Price is less than from a inflation in Flow Tech that you called out. What's going on there? And are you -- is this just a question of timing and catch up on the pricing side?
John L. Stauch:
Yes, it is. I mean, the short answer I mean, we are exiting, as Randy mentioned, several product lines within Home Depot in which we did take a large -- within our retail space, which we did take some large concessions on. So that's what we're managing through right now. But that headwind starts to go away in the second half and into next year.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
The -- so the restructurings this year, I guess, how much is that going to be? $60 million or something like that, the total?
John L. Stauch:
Yes, that's probably about right. Yes.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
How quickly does that -- do you think that pays back?
John L. Stauch:
We feel like it -- all in, we're just slightly -- since we've done this and we're sort of concluding our large restructuring actions, we've taken about $200 million of restructuring today. And the expected full year run rate benefit of that is roughly $200 million on an ongoing basis. So I would say that this last grouping is consistent with that. I mean, a little bit delayed in the sense that we notify and then the benefits come a little bit later, but that's what we're really running to is an ongoing run rate of about $200 million since the inception of the merger.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. So when we think about the year-over-year increment on that debt has yet to come in 2015, what is that number?
John L. Stauch:
It would probably be approximately $30 million.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
For '15?
John L. Stauch:
Correct.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And then are there any other -- I think there's this OMT benefits. Is that separate and is that also a plus for '15?
John L. Stauch:
Again, we would think that the investment continues, so the $20 million we're spending this year, we'll have another $20 million of investment next year. And there would be a slight pickup from the G&A savings that we'd expect once we go live with that program.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And just lastly, on the balance sheet, I mean, very strong free cash flow in the quarter. If -- the $1.3 billion you guys highlighted as kind of an opportunity and then on the next page or a page before that, whatever, you talked about how well you've kind of integrated this deal. You're buying back a little more stock. Is the priority -- given kind of what's transpired here, is the priority to descend the stock with more buybacks or should we take your comments around how well Tyco Flow has been integrated as we're ready to go on to do another deal and we're going to be opportunistic on something of size if it comes along?
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I think the way we look at it now is just really $2 billion of capacity less the $700 million remaining in share authorization. Our goal is to create long-term sustainable value and acquisitions continue to be a big part of that. But right now, there isn't a plethora of significant acquisitions to go get. So short-term, we've been doing what we feel is a disciplined capital allocation model of choosing between all of the options and making sure that we're looking at the one that drives the right long-term value creation.
Charles Stephen Tusa - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Right. And sorry, one more question. In terms of the Valves & Controls, the order -- the visibilty on the kind of the order pipeline. Things have been lumpy. Is this the real -- like this 7% growth, did you think there's enough visibility now in the pipeline to say that at least the orders should continue to grow here, acknowledging you're conservative on timing and the revenues and stuff like that?
Randall J. Hogan:
Yes, I mean, there's a certain amount of lumpiness, as you say. But the 7% growth in orders this quarter, we think portends more positive things coming. We have the quote log, we track ahead of that and that's up as well. It seems to be legitimate, the -- and the real projects and that's up. I think that, that will be good. And I'm really looking forward to seeing how we clock it in third and fourth quarter. That's really going to tell us a lot. I really like the discipline that the Valves & Controls team has put around the quote following now. I think we're in a much better shape than we were a year ago in terms of tracking and managing that.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
My first question is on the restructuring. And I think that you're pretty much through it now for the year at $69 million. But I think your original expectation was something closer to the $23 million. You did $46 million this quarter. 2 questions. What surprised you such that you accelerated the restructuring actions this quarter? And the follow-on, is it safe to assume that we are done with the restructuring for the rest of the year?
John L. Stauch:
I'll never say we're done. I think we aggressively went to everybody and said, "Listen, we want to put it behind us and we want to move forward. We want to start having reported and GAAP be the same -- I'm sorry, reporting just be the same number for the rest of the year." And on that context, I think we were more aggressive in the quarter based on the fact that we gave that guidance that we needed to put this behind us. But I think, overall, we feel really good about how the teams have stepped up. We feel really good about the productivity actions. And a lot of this is being driven, as Randy mentioned, by PIMS and Lean standardization and all the right things that we're doing to simplify the businesses to be better to deal with from a customer perspective and also to get the standardization in line so that we can be better at acquisitions going forward.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And I guess something that I'm struggling with a little bit is the impact of the Water Transport business. And so I think in Slide 8, you guys mentioned that the impact in 2013 was about $0.16 from Water Transport. And yet you gave us a delta last quarter on Water Transport, expecting to be a $0.13 negative headwind to 2014 results, which implies that the Water Transport business was going to add roughly about $0.03 this year. And so, I guess, help me bridge the gap of that $0.03 versus the $0.20 impact that you guys are talking about in terms of the guidance reduction for this year.
John L. Stauch:
Yes. I mean, I think you'll see it in the documents that where we were with Water Transport last year was what we described, which is the fact that the numbers we gave you were last year's 2013 numbers. We expected the business to the roughly flat for '14. When we came out and saw that the projects on pipeline was going to be less and there was going to be less contribution from Water Transport after we gave our original guidance, the goal was to drive the other businesses and hope that we would see back half upside to make up for that difference. And what you're seeing now is what the actual forecast for the business looks like this year, which is significantly less than the way we planned it and significantly less than its contribution last year. The other element that's going through the impact of the EPS is the changing share count from where we were in 2012 at 213.8 million shares to where we expect to be next year, which is sub 190 million. So that if you take that off the contributions, that's where you're seeing the impact.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And I mean, maybe trying to slice that up a slightly different way. It seems like the Water Transport business was in a loss position in the first of the year. But in the second half of the year, was it your expectation that you're going to get about $0.20 in benefit in Water Transport in the back half?
John L. Stauch:
Well, it was about in a breakeven position for the first half and we thought it would have a slightly larger uptick in the second half. However, we're talking apples and oranges here. Again, the plan was that we'd have contribution in the first half and we'd have contribution in the second half. When we didn't get the contribution in the first half, we adjusted our Water Transport outlook. We tried to overdrive the other businesses to get back on plan. And therefore, we are now telling you, we don't think that, that's...
Randall J. Hogan:
That's not happening.
John L. Stauch:
That's not going to happen.
Randall J. Hogan:
Because of the revenue. I mean, we were encouraged when we saw some of these projects getting released and that's why we're talked about the oil sands. We talked -- we saw some of these things getting released. We were getting excited about them and then we see them all pushed to the right. We just -- it's -- I don't -- just not going to comment on stuff until they happen.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham from Jefferies.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
The 2 questions that I have are when we talked about the step down on the 2005 -- 2015 target, it looks like you're only carving like 1 point or so out of the topline, yet $0.25 a share out of the bottom. Can you maybe walk us through that?
Randall J. Hogan:
That's really, as 1.0 out of '14 -- it's a 1.5 out of '14. It's a 1.0 out of '15. It's the general bad news in missing the growth profile for 3 years running and the compounding of it.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
That's fair. Okay. My only other question was really about the Valves business. So some of your wording, are you suggesting that your 2015 target is really devoid of the project business because you're kind of, I think as you said, kind of tired of waiting for it. Is that gravy to the $4.50?
Randall J. Hogan:
Well, I mean, these -- this CapEx pushing to the right affects Valves & Controls. It affects -- it, really, it affects 3 out of our 4 segments. But it really effects Valves & Controls and it really effects Technical Solutions. The big number, the big project that I was referring to really wanting to sort of fill in the upside to what we're saying are the thermal ones. There's some big Valves & Controls ones, too, that are -- would also be a risk of sliding, but Valves & Controls is thousands of projects. And so with the -- the law of large numbers helps us a little bit of that. In Thermal, they've had some really large, large projects that we were all excited about starting on and they're on ice.
R. Scott Graham - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
That's -- I get that. And I actually did have one last one I wanted to squeeze in, just on the -- based on the December Analyst Meeting you guys typically have, maybe it's November, whenever it's going to be, where were you really formalized your next year guidance. Randy, you're suggesting that $4.50 is sort of approximate, the final range that you give at that meeting could be higher, could be lower, or are you saying that your guidance will capture that number?
Randall J. Hogan:
That will be my best guess right now. It could be higher. It could be lower. I mean, frankly, as I said, I can't go out and tell you anymore that I'm -- that I have a path to $5. I had to decide -- we had to decide, do we just take it away? Or do we give you some indication of what our best thinking is now? Obviously, our -- we weren't thinking -- it wasn't our best thinking that gave us $5, was it? I mean, so I think that would say that the $4.50 is our best guess right now based on what we know today. That's how I would want you to think about it.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond from KeyBanc.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Just to kind of a follow on the large project. But Randy, more broadly, you mentioned kind of multiple degrees of freedom to hit the $5 and maybe now to hit the $4.50. And I'm assuming you're kind of talking about added buyback, kind of the $1.3 billion and the large projects and tax. Can you just talk about some of those levers that you can pull to kind of get you to the $4.50, or maybe nudge it above the $4.50 if the macro cooperates?
Randall J. Hogan:
Yes, let's -- let me go back. Let me talk about it. I mean, that's exactly -- how we thought about the -- when we said that we were creating a business that had $5 of earnings power in 2015, when announced the merger on March 28, 2012. That was the takeaway on my last page. And when we thought about that $5, we said we believe we can overdrive synergies. We believe we're looking at a market, thought that should have really -- the economy should have rebounded really nicely and that'll be really good for Industrial and really good in Energy and we're going to clock some nice organic growth and we'll get drop through on that. And we have buyback. And we added all that up and we were comfortably above $5, right? And as the buyback, we were grateful that the stock responded to the early performance of the business and so the stock buyback didn't get quite as much impact because the stock price was higher. We did overdrive synergies. That was great. We had big disappointments in Water Transport, which we talked about. But also, Energy. And we really have underrun by 1% to 1.5% in '13 and '14 and now we think '15, what we really needed to have that great headroom above $5. So as we look at $4.50 and we came to that number, it's going to take another 1.5 -- more than 1.5 points of growth on the organic side to really help drive the topline, to drive above that number. Is that possible? I think it's possible. But we need less uncertainty in the world. We need more commitment to capital. We need some of these animal spirits of the economy to come to the floor. And look at the profitability we have. We're building in Valves & Controls and we have in our Technical Solutions business. We need organic growth. We will mint money when we get it. So I'm very focused right now. And that's one of the reasons why Water Transport, God bless the people in it, put them aside and focus everybody else on driving growth. Now we have the $700 million that's already approved in stock buyback. I'm committed to that. And we've got this other $1.3 billion. But how we use that $1.3 billion is to create shareholder value. And it could be stock buyback. It could be acquisitions. And we're going to look at all of it. So that's how we think about it. It's the way we thought about it when we put the businesses together. And I think our prospects as a company are every bit as good as they were. And we're going to exploit the ones we can capture.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. Just a couple of clarifications. Process margins in 3Q look a little bit light. What's going on there? And how do think about tax x Water? I'm kind of...
John L. Stauch:
The process margins, real quickly, is we do have some systems that we're beginning to ship and especially in our filtration processes. And so when we ship those systems, we generally get a little less margin. We do them for the aftermarket revenue of the membrane annuity stream. So every once in a while, we're going to have some lumpiness with the project margins in that business. Everything else is as is. And on the tax rate side, we continue to do all the right actions to benefit from the global structure that Randy mentioned in the OMT. We also have a similar project that were leading in Technical Solutions.
Randall J. Hogan:
And I think, yes, the Water Transport x doesn't affect tax.
John L. Stauch:
We're not expecting that to dramatically impact our tax rate, Jeff.
Operator:
And you next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
A little more on the process margins. I -- Fourth quarter implies snapping back pretty quickly. So it sounds like the mix impact is pretty localized in the third quarter.
John L. Stauch:
Yes. Keep in mind that our product systems business is generally a stronger-margin business right now than the Filtration & Processing. And so they have a strong Q2. They have lighter Q3 and then they usually have a stronger Q4. So the contribution for Aquatic Systems within the Process Technologies side versus the contribution from Filtration & Process also has an impact on the overall segment margins.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Okay. Great. And in terms of realizing value for Water Transport, you're exiting it at a pretty high bottom. Could you just comment on the timing a little bit?
Randall J. Hogan:
Well, I mean, that was the early comment about the hard to sell an empty bag, an empty shopping bag. It's also not worth carrying around forever. So we showed you the evaluation of the deal economics as we see it today, one of the charts that John showed. And that basically is assuming modest value for that. So those multiples of how everybody, all the shareholders involved here, did very, very well with this acquisition, assumes we get a realistic number for Water Transport. Let me leave it at that.
Christopher Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And I heard a fair amount of companies saying the oil sands is picking up. You said sliding to the right, but also said you're seeing some pickup in the orders there. So how would you characterize that?
Randall J. Hogan:
It's the releases against the orders that we need because we don't -- until we ship something, we can't bill it. And we can't make it until they release the order. And that's what really has me shaken because I've seen it slip 3 times and it's baseball season.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari from Credit Suisse.
Hamzah Mazari - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
You folks talked a lot about projects getting pushed to the right. Maybe give us a sense of, within the Energy, as well as in Industrial vertical, how much of your business would you say is tied to growth or discretionary CapEx versus maintenance? Any color around that will be helpful.
John L. Stauch:
Yes, I mean, I think we gave you a rough percentage. I mean, our installed base is obviously substantially higher than what our greenfield projects would be. So with any given quarter, we're looking at about 50% to 60% our revenue comes from serving what we would say is the general installed base. And it's not like we're a project-dependent business. We're more CapEx-dependent. And this CapEx in these Energy spaces usually continues to flow. Right now, we're in about 2 or 3 years straight of that amount of capital being reduced or being timed, as Randy said. Our belief is that there's not a great fear of inflation so there's no sense of urgency to put the projects in motion.
Randall J. Hogan:
Or in effect, the bids and rebids, they keep getting lower prices. So that's why they keep them in rebid.
John L. Stauch:
So what we're really referring to is we're not counting or hoping, because hope is not a great plan, on any large, unique bluebird projects that may or may not be coming into the forecast.
Hamzah Mazari - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Great. And just a follow-up, any color you can give around North American residential markets? Are you seeing any pause there or continued momentum in your business?
Randall J. Hogan:
I would say, we have, we've got the 3 businesses that serve. We have the Aquatics business, we have Residential pump and we have the Residential Filtration business. And in the pro channel, Residential Flow, we've got some modest growth, but nice growth. It's masked by the exit of the retail side that we've talked about. And Residential Filtration is growing, again, single digits. Not exciting, but decent, not quite mid-singles, but -- and then Aquatics continues to do well with the share gain and the energy savings and the leading product lines and the best sales force. So that's pretty high. And that's continued. I see it as pretty steady. And the thing that really drives, certainly, the Residential Filtration and the Aquatics business is people putting money into homes. It isn't just housing starts, it's actually investments, if you will, in the housing stock. And so we -- it's been pretty stable for the 3 or 4 quarters of growth and even for a couple of businesses longer than that. And so we've actually seen in a couple of markets, where we think the markets can be stronger if there were -- if contractors could actually hire skilled labor. There's skilled labor shortage in some of the crafts in some areas of the country. It's affected our pool business and I think it's affected some of the remodeling business as well. On the pump side, it's really good for all of our pump players when -- the well pumps, so homes being built. When communities are being opened up and when larger homes built outside, they have the most pump content. Most of the housing that's being done is multifamily. So it has a more muted benefit to the Residential business when you have multifamily housing tighter to the city. That's probably too long an answer. Sorry.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg from Vertical Research.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Coming to just the lock on the free cash flow and the buyback and everything else. You did keep your free cash flow estimate despite the fact that you are taking operating profit down between now and 2015, I think about maybe $100 million. So a little bit less on that income line, but maybe just talk about what the bridge is. Are you getting better working capital performance out of -- versus your original plan? It would be helpful to get some detail there.
John L. Stauch:
Yes, the -- I think the original forecast did not include any real contribution from working capital. And yes, we are performing better in working capital. And yes, we continue to feel confident about achieving greater than 110% of net income. So I think it was really more of a conservative first look at the cash flow. And generally our forecast right now is what the see and therefore, what we shared with you.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Okay. And that's mostly on the Valves & Controls side of the business or is it coming elsewhere?
Randall J. Hogan:
No. Valves & Controls would be the primary contributor.
Randall J. Hogan:
Yes. But we have -- in our Process Technologies business, we have a lot of opportunity. We really have opportunity on working capital in all of our businesses, but Valves & Controls is a big one.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Got you. And just secondly, just on the Valves & Controls and the outlook. I mean, we actually have been hearing, I guess it's been mixed, but generally positive data points on orders our pumps related to oil and gas and other projects. And typically, you do see the Valves follow that by a couple of quarters. So most of the pump guys have been, I guess, giving a little bit more confidence that things are starting to happen. I guess, why are you being so conservative in that case if you do see the leading indicators actually starting to improve?
John L. Stauch:
I think as Randy mentioned, we're optimistic that we can see a couple more quarters of sustained order growth. Our Q2 reflected a pretty solid order quarter and we're hopeful Q3 and Q4. But we're now in the point of the cycle where if we book the orders and the valve is processed, we're looking at 2015 shipments. So what we're reflecting right now in the 2014 forecast is our shippable backlog, plus what we believe we can get to the book and ship and get out by the end of the year. We're hopeful that -- we looked at that same days that you did and that is the right leading indicator. And we're hopeful that we see those order start to come in Valves space and that would set up a nice 2015.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
And can you just touch on the pricing of some of the emerging projects that are coming to market? Is it more competitive, or is it holding fairly stable?
Randall J. Hogan:
I don't think there's anything -- there's nothing surprising or any kind of large move that I have seen in pricing. I mentioned earlier about a lot of rebids that are happening in the Energy business. That's really for the whole project. It didn't really affect our scope of the projects. But some of these huge, huge, $10 billion projects, they want to cut $1 billion out. That comes from redesigning the plan and doing things differently. So that's what I was referring to there.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time.
Randall J. Hogan:
All right. Thank you, all. You can give the replay. Things for listening in.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, the encore playback will be available 2 hours after call end time. To access this, dial (855) 859-2056. You will then be asked for your conference ID number, 66099974. Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
James Lucas - Vice President of Investor Relations Randall Hogan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer John Stauch - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Mike Halloran - Robert Baird Deane Dray - Citi Research Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein Shannon O’Callaghan - Nomura Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase Joshua Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Scott Graham - Jefferies & Company Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus Hamzah Mazari - Credit Suisse
Operator:
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pentair Q1 2014 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Lucas, you may begin your conference.
James Lucas:
Thanks, operator, and welcome to Pentair's first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. We're glad you could join us. I am Jim Lucas, vice president of investor relations, and with me today is Randy Hogan, our chairman and chief executive officer, and John Stauch, our chief financial officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter 2014 performance, as well as our second quarter and full year 2014 outlook as outlined in this morning's release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent 10-K and today's release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investors section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. All references today will be on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise indicated, for which the non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. We will target to be done in an hour. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow up, and get back in the queue for further questions so that everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. I will now turn the call over to Randy.
Randall Hogan :
Thanks, Jim. Good morning everyone. Let me begin with our first quarter performance, on slide four. Before I go through the results in detail, as has been our practice since the Flow Control merger, I want to note that we’re discussing our operating results on an adjusted basis to more clearly show the core operating performance of our businesses. With that, here are the first quarter numbers. First quarter revenue grew 1% on a core basis, but showed down 3% on a reported basis, which we will explain in more detail in a moment. Adjusted operating income was up 14%, and adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points to 11.8%. Adjusted EPS grew 26%, coming at the high end of our expected range at $0.73. Free cash flow was a small usage, which is normal in our first quarter. This reflects a seasonal working capital build in many of our residential businesses and in this year’s first quarter, the fact that a larger than average portion of revenue was generated in March due to the slow January and February. We believe we are on track to deliver full year free cash flow greater than 105% of net income. During the quarter, we completed our original $1.2 billion share repurchase authorization and are now into our next $1 billion repurchase authorization. Now let’s turn to slide five, for a more detailed look at the first quarter results. As I said previously, our reported sales declined 3%. The waterfall on the left-hand side of the page shows that we experienced 2 points of foreign exchange headwinds, principally the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, a 1 point headwind from divestitures, and another point of headwind from the nonrepeating Glebe Weir project in our water transport business in Australia. We’ll provide more detail on this business when discussing our flow technologies segment. We do not believe we were alone in seeing a slow start to the year, with weaker revenue in January and February, but the majority of our business has experienced nice revenue acceleration in March and early April has seen many of those trends continue. The right half of the page shows first quarter Pentair operating profit and margin. Operating margin expansion of 170 basis points was helped in large part by strong productivity, which includes synergies. As we have discussed in the past, in order to deliver on our targeted margin expansion of 150 basis points per year, we need to deliver on both base productivity and synergies, so we track them together. We continue to gain momentum on both Lean and sourcing initiatives, and we identified 18 focus factories that we expect to drive additional margin gains in 2014. As we’ve experienced additional top line challenges, we took further repositioning actions in the first quarter to accelerate our productivity results. Overall, while we are not satisfied with our top line performance in the first quarter, we continue to deliver on productivity and synergies and see strengthening of the top line as we enter the seasonally strong period for our residential and commercial businesses. Our backlog gives us further confidence in our expectation for an accelerating top line growth rate in the second half of the year as well. Now let’s turn to slide six, for a performance review of our largest segment, valves and controls. Valves and controls organic sales declined 7%, which followed strong double-digit growth in the fourth quarter 2013. This segment has shown a great deal of variability quarter to quarter, and we will continue to seek improvements in our forecast for the top line. One of the ways we’re doing that is by looking at longer periods for comparisons and evaluations. For instance, if we combine the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, and compare that six-month period to its prior year comparable, sales show growth of 5% year over year as compared to the 19% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the 7% decline in the first quarter of this year. A fair amount of the quarter to quarter swing relates to timing of large project shipments, but we also experienced a fair amount of variability in our shorter cycle business. All four industries served by valves and controls posted a decline, with sharp drops in power and mining. The declines in oil and gas were principally related to the timing of large project shipments, while the power decline came from weaker nuclear demand. We did see some softness earlier in the quarter on our overall short cycle business, but service showed solid growth in the quarter. The right half of the page shows fourth quarter valves and controls operating profits and margins. Adjusted operating margins expanded 140 basis points to 11.5%, which included $5 million in costs for the GBU’s operating model transformation, or OMT. As a reminder, we expect the OMT investment in valves and controls to continue on an annual basis through 2016, and that investment is expected to drive nearly $80 million of annual operating income savings once completed, and an overall tax benefit to Pentair of roughly 3 points due to the optimization of the global valves and controls structure in Switzerland. Now let’s turn to slide seven for a look at the orders and backlogs for valves and controls. As you can see on slide seven, the valves and controls backlog is broken down into four key industries, three of which fall into our energy vertical, oil and gas, power, and mining, and one in our industrial vertical, which is process industries. Overall backlog remained near $1.4 billion, which is relatively consistent with where it has been since we acquired the business near the end of 2012. Orders were relatively flat in process, oil and gas, and mining, but power showed a sharp decline in orders. We’ve experienced a fair amount of quarter to quarter variability in sales and orders within oil and gas, but we still see healthy quoting activity. Industrial process is still expected to benefit from increased capital spending related to anticipated growth in North American chemical capacity. We anticipate this will be more of a second half and 2015 benefit for our valves and controls business. Power remains a wildcard, but the backlog remains relatively consistent, and despite the quarter to quarter volatility in orders, we expect shipments to pick up later in the year. We remain very cautious on mining, but this is the smallest portion of valves and controls. Now let’s move to slide eight for a review of process technologies. We indicated on our fourth quarter earnings call that we would begin to report in four segments, as our previous water and fluid solutions segment was split into process technologies and flow technologies. As a reminder, process technologies comprises our filtration and process and aquatic systems GBUs. Process technologies reported good top line growth of 5%, which included a 1 point FX translation headwind. Both the residential and commercial and food and beverage verticals grew at a double digit rate, building on the momentum we saw in this business last year. The right half of the page shows first quarter process technologies operating profit and margins. Operating margins expanded a disappointingly modest 10 basis points to 11.7% as a result of two principal factors during the quarter. First, we saw strong shipments of larger system sales in our beverage business, which as we indicated last quarter has a dilutive impact on the overall segment results, as these systems carry lower margins on initial installs, but they’re important to building an installed base to drive higher margin replacement sales in the future. Second, our residential filtration business experienced a slow January that resulted in poorer operating leverage than normal that month, followed by a strong increase in demand in March, which led to overtime and some expedited freight. We expect more normalized sales trends and greater operating margin expansion in the seasonally strong second quarter. Now let’s move to slide nine for a look at flow technologies. This is the first quarter that we’ve reported our flow technologies segment, which as a reminder is a combination of the legacy Pentair flow technologies business and the Australian water business that was part of legacy Flow Control. As expected, we saw a sharp decline in flow technologies, with sales down 7% on a reported basis. There were two main causes of this decline. We saw a 4 point headwind from the Australian dollar and another 4 point headwind from the nonrepeating Glebe Weir project in 2013. We’ll discuss the impact of the Australian water transportation further on the next slide. The legacy flow technologies businesses actually saw modest growth in the quarter. The right half of the page shows first quarter flow technologies operating profits and margins. Operating margins expanded 50 basis points to 9.9% as the impact of no project activity in Australia and the tough comp it created was nearly a full point of margin headwind in the quarter. We continue to aggressively rightsize the cost structure of the Australia water transport business to reflect the reality of a much different looking business today than was expected over a year ago. We continue to see strong productivity in the other parts of flow technologies, and the repositioning benefits are helping to partially offset the sharp declines experienced in water transport. Let’s now turn to slide 10 for additional color on our water transport business. Given the dramatic decline in water transport, we thought it would be helpful to explain how much of an impact the decline in the Australian economy has had on this business. When the mining industry was strong, in 2012, and there were a number of large projects in Australia, this business generated over $550 million of revenue. This is about the average revenue over the five year period five years prior to 2012, with the peak around $715 million in 2010. At the time of the Flow Control acquisition, based on projects booked and being bid, this business was anticipated to generate over $800 million in 2015. We knew, based on the backlog and the debooking of two large projects shortly after the acquisition, that we were facing a decline in 2013, but this business has faced a significant lack of projects that has led to further declines in 2014 to historically low levels. We’ve been aggressively going after restructuring in this business, but there is a fixed cost element that, on these lower sales, is creating earning headwinds in 2014. As shown in the slide, the second quarter is the last expected large headwind, and this is likely to lower our overall EPS in the quarter by $0.08. It’s not realistic to expect this business to rebound anytime soon, as demand from China on the mining industry remains low and municipal investments just aren’t happening. We’ve taken significant costs out of this business and the tough year over year comps diminish in the second half of the year. A decline in Australia of this magnitude was not foreseen, but it in no way does it lead us to back off of our commitment of $5 of EPS in 2015. We’ve stepped up the restructuring activities and driving up side performance in other businesses, and we continue to drive productivity and synergies across all of Pentair to help offset this lingering headwind. We’ll keep you posted on our progress. Let’s now turn to slide 11 for a look at the technical solutions results. Technical solutions sales grew 1% in the quarter, but price and volume contributed 3 points of growth, offset by 1 point of headwinds from FX and another point from divestitures. As a reminder, we sold our [unintelligible] specialty motors business in the first quarter last year, so this divestiture comparison goes away in the second quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter of growth that technical solutions has delivered following declines in the first nine months of 2013. We saw growth in the industrial, residential, commercial, and infrastructure verticals while energy declined in the quarter. After a slow start to the year, we saw daily orders rates in our electrical business accelerate in March, and this trend has continued into early April. The cold weather in the U.S. did have some benefits for our thermal business, but Europe experienced unseasonably warm weather, and we saw weakness in Canada offsetting that. At the same time, our electronics business has benefited from improving demand and new products. The right half of the page shows first quarter technical solutions operating profits and margins. Margins were a great story yet again, as adjusted operating margins expanded 210 basis points to 19.1%, with strong productivity, synergies, and operating leverage all on display during the quarter. While thermal is entering its seasonally slowest quarter, our equipment protection and electronics businesses are seeing improved momentum entering the second quarter. Let’s now turn to slide 12 for a closer look at the total Pentair growth profile. First quarter saw solid performance in the U.S. and Western Europe, weakness in Canada and Australia, and mixed signals in fast growth regions. In the U.S., we continue to see strength in residential and commercial. In Western Europe, we saw a modest recovery. In the fast growth regions, the Middle East declined due to timing of one large project. We still expect strong growth for the full year. Southeast Asia remains mixed, and we continue to see growth in China and Latin America. Our residential and commercial and food and beverage verticals remain the bright spots. We still expect growth in all of our verticals except infrastructure, which is weighted down by the weakness in Australia. Energy continued its trends of lumpiness with a first quarter decline, following a 15% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013. First quarter weakness was principally related to the power declines in valves and controls, as we discussed earlier. We continue to see strength in oil and gas quoting activity, so we expect to see low single digit growth in energy for the year. Industrial was down modestly in the quarter, with the improvement in our electrical daily orders rate and the continued strong quoting around the anticipated North American chemical manufacturing renaissance gives us increased confidence that industrial will grow at a modest pace for the full year. We’re entering the seasonally strongest period for our North American residential businesses, which follows another strong mid-single digit growth quarter for this vertical. We also saw improvements in both the European and China residential markets and our businesses exposed to commercial construction are also seeing signs of improvement. Infrastructure remains the weakest vertical, but again, this is due exclusively to Australia. Our North American break and fix business remains steady. We’ve seen a bottoming in desalination, and datacom, telecom, electronics has bounced off the bottom, as evidenced by a second consecutive quarter of strong growth. Food and beverage is expected to see solid mid-single digit growth this year, which follows strong double-digit growth last year. We expect continued slowness in our U.S. agriculture related businesses, both irrigation pump and crop spray OEM, but the aftermarket piece in cross spray remains solid. Our food service business continues to experience strong international growth, and beverage systems continues to have a healthy backlog. Please turn to slide 13, labeled Q1 Assessment and Full Year Outlook. Before turn the call over to John to review our outlook for the second quarter and full year 2014, I wanted to offer a summary of why we remain optimistic that we’re on track to deliver on our full year commitment. Our top line came in a little lower than we anticipated, but this was due in large part to a slow January and February after robust growth experienced in the fourth quarter of 2013 to end the year. We saw strengthening in many of our businesses in March, and that has continued into early April. We will still have the Australian water transport headwind in the second quarter, but we expect this will be partially offset by the seasonal strength of our North American residential businesses. As we look out to the second half, we’re seeing signs of increased capital spending by industrial customers and a building backlog in our valves and controls business. We continue to drive our productivity and synergies and have put additional action plans in place to drive even more productivity gains. And our OMT investment in valve controls is on track. Of course, we’re committed to investing in growth, which we expect to start reflecting in our results in the second half of 2014. In addition, our balance sheet remains in great shape, and we’re on track for another record year of free cash flow. Our businesses that have earned the right to grow are building their acquisition pipeline. We continue to focus on the elements where we can control our own destiny, and while we still have to earn the right to talk about growth, we believe the second quarter will represent our last difficult year over year comparison, and of course we have opportunities to drive further margin expansion into 2015 and beyond. With that, I’ll turn the call over to John.
John Stauch :
Thank you, Randy. Please turn to slide number 14, titled Q2 2014 Pentair Outlook. For the second quarter of 2014, we expect sales to be flat to down about 1%, and approximately $1.95 billion. Valves and controls are expected to be flat due to timing of current backlog and an expected ramp of short cycle orders. Process technologies is anticipated to be up 6% to 8% in its seasonally strongest quarter. Flow technologies is expected to be down approximately 20% due to the last tough comparison in our water transport business that Randy discussed in detail earlier on the call. Excluding this project, sales should be up approximately 3%. Finally, technical solutions is expected to be up 4% to 6%, led by our equipment protection and electronics businesses. We are expecting adjusted operating income up 6%, and adjusted operating margins to expand approximately 100 basis points to 14.7%. This includes about $7 million more of OMT investments in valves and controls and the impact of the Australian headwinds mentioned earlier. Excluding these, operating income would be up approximately 16% versus Q2 of last year. Our EPS forecast for the second quarter is a range of $1.02 to $1.05, or an increase of roughly 13%.. Please turn to slide 15, titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. Quarter end debt was approximately $2.9 billion, or $2.7 billion on a net debt basis, inclusive of global cash on hand. In the first quarter, we returned $300 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. At the end of the first quarter, we have now completed our initial $1.2 billion share repurchase authorization, and have just under $900 million remaining under our current $1 billion authorization. We are seeking authorization from our shareholders at our May annual general meeting to increase our dividend to $0.30 per share per quarter from $0.25 per share per quarter, which, if approved, will mark our 38th consecutive year of annual dividend increases. Our ROIC ended the quarter at 10%. We continue to have a lot of opportunities on the working capital front with legacy Flow Control businesses, and we expect to make further progress as the year continues. Please turn to slide number 16, labeled Full Year 2014 Pentair Outlook. We are reiterating our full year EPS guidance of $3.85 to $4.00 on approximately $7.7 billion in sales. We have moderated our growth rate by a point to a range of 2% to 4%, reflecting the impact of FX and the slower start in January. Valves and controls is now expected to grow 1% to 3%, as backlogs remain strong and we continue to focus more on the short cycle businesses. Process technologies is expected to grow 8% to 10%, with continued strength in aquatics, beverage systems, food service, and an improving residential and commercial filtration business. Flow technologies is anticipated to be down 5% to 7%, related to the lack of project activity in Australia, the tough comps we discussed earlier, and [unintelligible] backs. Excluding the water transport business, we expect flow technologies to grow approximately 4% to 5%. Technical solutions is expected to grow 4% to 6%, as we signs of business improving in the North American electrical distribution channel, strength in our electronics business, and easier comps for our thermal business. We do not expect any megaproject activity in 2014, but as we have stated in the past, we will update accordingly at the appropriate time if any megaprojects enter the backlog. Adjusted operating income is expected to expand to approximately $1.1 billion, which would represent a record for Pentair. We expect three of the four segments to expand operating margins in excess of 100 basis points, with only flow technologies not achieving that level, as we continue to aggressively rightsize the cost structure with a dramatically reduced demand environment at our water transport business. Overall corporate costs are expected to be down due to lower corporate integration costs. For the full year, we expect the tax rate to be around 23.5%, net interest expense to be approximately $70 million, and the share count to be around 198.5 million. We expect EPS to expand around 22% to $3.93, at the midpoint of the guidance range. We are expecting another record year of free cash flow, with at least $850 million, or greater than 105% of net income. Operator, can you please open the line for questions?
Operator:
[Operator instructions.] Your first question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Robert Baird.
Mike Halloran - Robert Baird:
Let’s start on the revenue guidance. It sounds like the two main pressure points, a little bit of Canada FX and maybe some volumes there, but the predominant part is the Australia side. Maybe you could just go into a little bit more detail - and by the way, great color on slide 10 on the year over year and some more water transportation information - but maybe if you could just talk about what you’re seeing on the short cycle, kind of everyday business over there, as well as what the outlook on the project activity looks like, and if there are even any projects embedded in the guidance as you look forward in that specific piece today.
Randall Hogan :
The volume we get is really all small projects, maintenance. There’s always some of that. That business has always had at least one or two larger projects, and then they’d get big ones on top of that. This year is unprecedented in that it has none of those bigger projects. And we don’t have any bigger projects coming in the forecast. So that’s what’s different. We thought we’d get a couple of those. They went away.
Mike Halloran - Robert Baird :
And on the regular way side, how’s that business? Is that a little bit worse than expected as well right now?
John Stauch :
No, that’s clipping along at roughly flat or modestly up. As Randy mentioned, primarily a break in fix or reestablishing fixing things that are already installed. That business has always been relatively steady. But it’s the project business, and usually at this particular point in time, we’ve always got two or three, or we at least have meaningful ones at the front [log]. We’re not even seeing front log activity in Australia related to these projects.
Mike Halloran - Robert Baird :
If I take out the Australia and some of the Canada pieces and things like that, it looks like the core businesses outside of that are tracking consistent, if not ahead of your expectations, on a full year basis. You obviously have commented on some improving trends as you look through March and April here, but what gives you the confidence on the energy side that you’re going to see some improvement as you work through the year there? And then also, maybe just a little bit more color about some of the end markets you’re starting to see improve a little bit.
Randall Hogan :
We’re getting better at seeing the businesses in our current configuration, and as we’re looking at our bidding activity. In energy, bidding activity remains strong. The power surprise, nuclear valves is a nice business, and that was surprising to see the short cycle in that. So, short cycle, which is repair and maintenance, was actually weaker in the nuclear business than we would have anticipated. That was really the only surprise in energy. But the variability quarter to quarter is not that big a surprise. So we feel good about energy because of the bidding activity, and that’s consistent across all of the GBUs that serve energy.
John Stauch :
The only thing I would add to it is, I’m sure like a lot of the companies you follow, our January and February slow start, March was very strong. And we’ve anticipated or put in the normalized view of what we think the year’s going to be, so we’re obviously monitoring April, and is April tracking more like March, and how comfortable do we feel. We’ll have a better picture of that, obviously, as we close out Q2.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray of Citi Research.
Deane Dray - Citi Research :
It looked like corporate expense came in lighter than what we were looking for, and right at the end of your prepared remarks, you commented that corporate is coming down with lower integration costs. But maybe just what were the dynamics this quarter on the corporate line that might have made it more favorable?
John Stauch :
We’re looking at around 23 to 25 this year, probably closer to 23, each and every quarter. So we’re about $1 million under that. We’re going to have variability in things like stock comp timing, medical timing, and litigation. That’s about the only variability we would have. So it wasn’t a big delta. The year over year is the integration costs. We were obviously very heavy into the corporate integration last year, and you see that number reflected in over $30 million of expenses. That came down throughout last year. So most of our integration activities now are all in the businesses. So we mentioned OMT, that’s being absorbed in the valves and controls business. And most of all, our Lean activities and costs that are being borne to drive the synergies that are all being managed by the businesses now.
Deane Dray - Citi Research :
And then on process tech, the margin hit, or just the margin pressure because of the mix, maybe you could just expand on that. When you ship these larger systems, is that also because you have content that’s not Pentair content, and that’s more of a pass-through. If you could just give us some context and color regarding those kinds of shipments, and what that outlook embedded is, for the balance of the year.
Randall Hogan :
It’s both. It’s both a lower margin because the systems are direct to the OEMs or part of lower projects, and they’ve always been a little bit tighter. But there’s also, as we build a valves kit, or we build a [cold] block, there is a lot more purchase pass through parts. That’s part of it too.
John Stauch :
But as you know, we’re doing it because we’ve got the memory there that within 12 to 18 months, it’s going to be replaced, and we look for those aftermarket sales, and that’s much higher margin. So this is the razor, if you will, and the razor blade is to come.
Deane Dray - Citi Research :
Yeah, I’d much rather see you shipping these systems as solutions as opposed to component pieces. And then just a quick clarification on the nuclear business. We’ve seen this elsewhere, from mothballed plants, that just would have ordered these valves that are now just being mothballed, or is it lower utilization, lower maintenance spending?
Randall Hogan :
Well, it’s some of both. Germany was down, but Germany is moving away from nuclear, so those are being mothballed. So that’s maintenance that isn’t going to get done unless, for some reason, they open them up. At the same time, France has recommitted to another 50 year life extension for their whole nuclear fleet, and they’re going to be net exporters of electricity to all of Europe. But their maintenance was lighter than we would expect. The U.S. maintenance was lighter than we would have expected. And then there’s project businesses in China and other countries that are there to ship, and they just don’t ship. But the mothballing factor, we believe that we have that factored in. The surprise was more on the expected maintenance and the shipping of projects that are new installations, in countries that are building them.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Sanford C. Bernstein.
Steven Winoker - Sanford C. Bernstein:
John, question for you. When you sort of now think about how long you’ve had valves and controls, and the difficulty in forecasting this business, when you look within your FP&A process and talent pool, what kind of changes are you putting in place so that - I know there are big projects, I know you’ve gotten certain surprises, but nonetheless, there are a lot of highly diversified companies with similar dynamics who have a maybe more mature FP&A process in businesses like this. How far away from that are you, do you think, in terms of time to get there? Or do you think it’s just going to be a tough business to ever get there?
John Stauch :
I think we’ll definitely get there. I mean, we talk about blue chips being top priorities here, and believe me, this is Randy’s top blue chip, which means it’s my top blue chip, which means it’s the business’s top blue chip. And right now, it’s complicated. These acquisitions were acquired, and we basically have 40 individual businesses that really take sales in 128 different locations, and then those sales are put on the factories. And you could imagine, some of these are in stock, and some of these make the stocks, and some of these configure the order, and some of these are larger projects. But this is all solvable, and this is where our Lean tools really come in, and we’ve initiated and kicked off that project. So there is a financial element to this, but there’s also a process element that goes all the way through the sci op process. And as I mentioned, it’s Randy’s top priority, which means the business is all over it right now. I can’t tell you why they reach at the end of the quarter so much, like in Q4, and then you see the slowness this quarter, and then the catch up. I think that’s their lack of confidence in what that shipments needs to be to manage those quarters.
Randall Hogan :
We all have experience in those kinds of businesses, in our past life, that with longer cycle, should be more predictable. That’s one of the benefits of a longer cycle business. But as John said, it’s a function of the fact that the businesses have not been integrated, and that’s our big opportunity. That’s what our OMT project is about. And beyond the OMT, to get more granular understanding of the forecasts that come in, it’s not just in FP&A. It’s the sales forecasting. It’s an organizational capability. And we know how to do it, and we’re working on it.
Steve Winoker - Sanford Bernstein :
And then on capital deployment, what is your willingness or desire to step up the repurchase part of the deployment over the next year or so?
John Stauch :
We definitely have the ability to. I think we will, if we need to. Right now, we’d like to balance that with acquisitions, especially in the platforms that Randy mentioned [unintelligible], they’re growing nicely, organically. They have a great standardized back office. And right now, there’s a big willingness to have discussions around acquisition. There is an agreement on price. But that’s what we’d like to do, is balance this between share buyback and acquisition.
Steve Winoker - Sanford Bernstein :
And then this food and beverage has been a fantastic contributor now for some time, and offset a lot of weakness in other segments. As those segments start to come back, do you think food and beverage has got this sort of longer-term secular story, where it’s not like we’re going to see that decrease as the other ones come up?
John Stauch:
I don’t think we can sustain 20% growth a year, but the reason we think we’re more in the double digits on a long term basis is we have solved something significant for the large beverage manufacturers, which is a way to filter their product, which has become a standard element. And so as they expand the breweries or rearranged the breweries, we’re a big piece of that. The other element that’s in the food and beverage is not only our ag offering, but what we believe is, you know, aquaculture and aquaponics, and a lot of other offerings. So we are focused on it. We have a lot of new product introductions there, and we have a global offering, which is really being well accepted.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shannon O’Callaghan of Nomura Securities.
Shannon O’Callaghan - Nomura :
First, I was just wondering, I know you touched on this a little bit, but the fast growth markets have been rather lumpy in the recent quarters. Can you talk a little bit more about the moving parts there, and maybe some detail around your outlook for these regions for the rest of the year?
Randall Hogan :
The Middle East is still in a long term growth trend. We just had a really big project that shipped last year in the valves and controls business, in the Middle East. And that [unintelligible] in the Middle East looks weak. The secular trend, if you will, for our Middle East growth, is good. China has come back in residential spending. It’s nice to see that again in China. And it’s slowed down. And for us, that’s in the water business. So we think now that that’s coming back, it should continue for us. Latin America had suffered some setbacks from Brazil, but the rest of Latin America is lifting that.
John Stauch :
I’d say any time you get to see a valves number like this, you’re going to see its impact. It’s been our largest fast growth provider product, it’s going to have a general toll on the reporting. But the underlying water businesses right now in the fast growth regions is seeing nice, sustained, consistent growth. We’ve put a lot of investment and effort there, and I think I’m with Randy, I think we feel like these markets continue to be better than they were last year, with the exception of Brazil, and I think we have a long term growth rate here that I call mid-single digits.
Shannon O’Callaghan - Nomura :
And then just maybe on acquisitions, what are these main areas of priority? Do you have a range in mind when you think in terms of size, of what you’d be willing to do? Or is that kind of a rolling target?
John Stauch :
We look at everything. And as I said earlier, obviously the integration effort, we’d like that to be on something that’s much more lean today, and could accept a larger acquisition.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
Just kind of a nitpicky question on the process technologies. You had two businesses that are, I guess, representing about 85% of the segment, residential, commercial, food and beverage, they were up 10%, 17% respectively. But sales were only up 5%. What was down so much in that business? Presumably, it’s forex or anything like that. Am I missing something on the end market dynamics?
Randall Hogan :
It’s the water purification, the business that serves desalination and just the pure water side.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
How big is that business?
John Stauch :
A little over $160 million annually.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
So it must have been down a lot.
John Stauch :
Yeah, it’s a muni play. It was down around 20% in the quarter there. And we were also slightly down in our energy, which is more of a timing issue, and when those shipments will go out. That was down roughly 10%. That’s about a $100 million a year business.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
And then on valves and controls, your profits were up $3 million this quarter on a pretty significant revenue decline. I think the guidance for the next quarter has kind of a similar profit on a flattish revenues. Is that like OMT flowing through? Is there something there? Why wouldn’t that be better? Why wouldn’t the $3 million and increase be better with flattish revenues?
John Stauch :
I actually love your question, because we feel the same way. Right now there’s a couple million dollars more of OMT, and we do think that the productivity that we’ve seen in the last several quarters, we believe that that’s going to continue to come through here. So we’re looking for that increased Lean and sourcing savings, and I think whenever you’re flat, I think businesses find it hard to forecast significant operating income on flattish growth.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
So the OMT, I think it was $5 million in the first quarter, I think we thought it was going to be more like $7 million. I know this is nitpicking, but what’s the number for the second quarter in OMT?
John Stauch :
Roughly $7 million.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
So you get back to that kind of run rate. And then just one last question on overall productivity. I know you’ve changed the slide somewhat, but getting to about $45 million in combined productivity and synergies for the quarter, I know you’re not going to give us explicit guidance, but I would assume, are the synergies on track here as far as what you had laid out on an annual basis? Are you still expecting the same amount of synergies from [unintelligible]?
John Stauch :
Absolutely. I think the piece that we absolutely know about is the restructuring, and when you take a look at what we’ve done today, we’ve taken roughly $200 million in charges, and that run rate on those savings would be north of $200 million. And that’s the piece that we absolutely have tangible confidence that we’re going to achieve. The piece that’s a little harder to gauge is some Lean savings, and how much is core, and how much is synergies, especially when you need growth leverage to benefit from both, and also, on the sourcing side, how much would you have gotten anyway. But right now, I did the same math you did. We exited at $40 million. I think we picked up some incremental synergies on top of that, probably knocking on the door of close to $45 million to $50 million, from a run rate basis. And we continue to believe that we’re going to escalate through the year, based upon the incremental actions we even [drilled] in Q1.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
But I guess the comp gets tougher on synergies year over year, into the second quarter. Is that where the restructuring comes in? You just did some restructuring and that kind of reloads that, if we want to call it a core productivity pipeline. So that does look like, in the second quarter, that that productivity, if you kind of parse those out, and use what you had guided to previously, on synergy, it does look like that steps up in the second quarter on your guidance, because the revenues are obviously weaker, but in the context of those weaker revenues, the profitability still looks pretty decent in the second quarter. So is that kind of the way to think about it, that the restructuring, if we assume that the synergies were what they were, does the restructuring kind of help that productivity number step up in the last nine months of the year?
John Stauch :
Yeah, because we’re getting the restructuring, we’re getting the synergies, and when we start to grow on that reduced cost structure, the leverage is very nice. And when we track this year, synergies aren’t the problem. We’re slightly underperforming on the core, and that’s related to the revenue. We’re also utilizing those incremental synergies, as you know now, to cover the water transport impact. And we anniversary that in Q2, so I feel like we’re well positioned on restructuring and when we get the growth, we’re going to see some pretty nice leverage.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
Is this it for restructuring for the year? Are you guys done for the year?
John Stauch :
We expect to be done by the end of Q2.
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan Chase :
Okay, so it will be more than $22 million or $23 million or something like that.
John Stauch :
I think they’ll carry over into Q2, correct.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Pokrzywinski with MKM Partners.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners :
First question, on slide 10, that’s helpful color, but did any of that come together or become more clear as we worked through Q1. I guess as I look at that, a lot of that seems like it could have been more helpful to point out last quarter. So I’m just wondering how much of that is more of a recent revelation in terms of sizing up some of those things.
Randall Hogan :
Well, it’s not recent. As we were doing the restructuring, one of the things we knew was this business was one of the reasons we wanted to consolidate GBUs, is we want to take out cost structure around businesses that just didn’t need the cost structure, and couldn’t afford the cost structure. The new information is the fact that the expected additional one or two projects just aren’t materializing. It was at that point we realized, this is something we should share. It’s not a surprise. What’s a surprise is the fact that none of the projects that would be reasonably expected, and that were actually being talked about, have materialized as real projects.
John Stauch:
This isn’t a highly configured business. It’s apparently a standard product that goes into our factories that maintain a fairly high fixed cost structure. So when you get a project, you can usually start shipping it within 30 to 60 days. And so this is the season that we usually see those projects enter at least the front log, if not the back log. And what Randy’s saying is, we don’t even see them in the front log, let alone the back log. So this was the time we felt we needed to share with you guys what we’re absorbing in the rest of the base business.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners :
And then just shifting over to valves and controls, it seems like there’s a bit of a gap forming between pretty healthy quoting activity or tone from customers and orders that I think have hit a new low since, on a quarterly basis, since you guys took over the business. And then I guess the same question on backlog versus shipment. Backlog seems like it’s pretty healthy, and you get these persistent delays. What am I missing? Or what is the gap there? Is it walking away from unprofitable business, like you guys had talked about? Is it a forecasting/timing issue that you’re still getting your arms around? I guess are there any other unintended consequences of this transformation, like sales force attrition or anything else?
John Stauch :
Not seeing that. We’re feeling the same optimism in the market that everybody else is talking about. Last Q2, we had a difficult orders quarter. We saw a little bit of recovery in Q4 of last year. And I wouldn’t say we’re at a historical low, but we’re not ecstatic about the Q1 orders. But if you take the March order rate, it was relatively strong. So I think we’re hearing the same optimism in the market, and we’re expecting that quoting activity to turn orders, and we’re tracking this to a weekly order rate, and looking at the variances and doing our root cause countermeasures. I don’t think there’s any systematic issue to what you’ve asked. I think it’s a matter of getting this capital investment spent, and getting those projects put into place.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners :
Is there anything else outside of nuclear, which sounds like it was a bit of a short cycle surprise in Q1, from a short cycle perspective, that was particularly underwhelming in the first quarter. I guess you’ve seen energy bounce around in general. Any other kind of quick lead time…
Randall Hogan :
Well, yeah, on the short cycle. We have probably the lowest conversion of, if you will, short cycle orders in quarter four quarter the business has seen in a while. And mining affected that too. If the mine’s open, it’s going to have maintenance. And so that was lower than we would have expected. So I would say it’s both power and mining.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch :
Just a question on markets and how should I look at performance? It seems that nuclear was a little bit weaker. Mining was weaker, Australia was weaker. If we strip that out, and if we look at the forecast, what else has changed? And what are the positives and what are the negatives? Just another level down.
John Stauch :
Yes, Europe remains a slight positive. They did have a warm winter, as Randy mentioned. We had a thermal business that obviously was impacted, but the rest of our other businesses we saw a slight benefit from that warm weather.
Randall Hogan :
Yeah, it seems to be stable and heading up.
John Stauch :
The U.S. continues to do really well in the market. Canada was a little weaker this time. And Southeast Asia and China, as Randy mentioned, as well as the Middle East, from a core basis, are good, solid markets right now.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch :
You also highlighted the fact that you have some overtime in March. Is there enough time to catch up, given the construction season? Or do you think we now basically have to wait until…
Randall Hogan :
That comment was really specifically to the process technologies segment, and particularly the water purification or U.S. residential. It was the U.S. residential and European residential comment. And no problem catching up.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch :
Are we going to catch up in the second quarter, or do we have to wait until the second half?
Randall Hogan :
No, it’s building now. The second quarter and third quarter are the residential quarters.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Jeffries.
Scott Graham - Jefferies & Company :
I calculated about $76 million of productivity plus synergies, which would be net of the pricing. I think you indicated that you did about $40 million of synergies in the quarter, which would suggest, if my math is right, about $36 million of productivity, which on the sales base, is over 200 basis points. Is my math about right on that?
John Stauch :
Yeah, I think I’d say about $50 million in synergies, but your $26 million is right. And then obviously some of that’s going to offset the inflation. So we always look at two elements. We want price to offset inflation. We want productivity to offset inflation in the core. Sometimes we don’t always get there perfectly, but that’s our targeted actions. And so we’re always looking to offset that inflation rate on the [unintelligible] core productivity. But yeah, we’re seeing that strength of operating performance, seeing good cost structure, good cost discipline management. And that’s why Randy and I are optimistic when we see the growth, we’re going to get that leverage. And the growth is frustrating, because we have 20 product technology platforms, half of them are growing. And when we talk about growing, they’re growing high single-digits. And we’ve got a couple of these platforms that are in significant contraction mode. The good news is, most of the ones like water transport aren’t our highest margin, but some of the ones that are growing are higher margin, and so that’s part of that positive mix we expect to see as well. But I think your math is generally correct, yes.
Scott Graham - Jefferies & Company :
I’m actually calculating off that adjustment about 150 basis points of productivity, which is still 50 basis points above what your target is. So I just wanted to confirm that. The next question is really more of a question for you, Randy. And you know, once out of every three or four quarters, there’s some questions surrounding the top line that maybe should have been maybe a couple of points higher. Could you maybe talk about some of the things that you’re doing to maybe address some of the vagaries that you see in sales from time to time across the businesses? Anything that you’re hatching that’s new to start to build on the critical mass that you now have in this company?
Randall Hogan :
You know, we’ve gone from seven GBUs to five. And then underneath the five, John mentioned that we’ve identified and defined and staffed 20 platforms, focused platforms, to manage profitable growth, so that we can make sure that we’re flowing the resources to our best opportunities. And we just put that in place at the beginning of this year. And John can say what he just said, which is we really do understand which ones are leveraging us for growth, and which ones are laggards, and what do we do about it. So we have much more granularity to that. At the same time, we’ve invested in a growth function, and we’re very much targeting that right now to get a better handle on the forecasting ability in valves and controls. And so really, our focus right now is on growth and our growth processes. We’re building the competencies and capabilities for growth that we have built in Lean. It’s taken us 13 to 14 years to get where we are on Lean, but we are among the companies that are, if I dare say so, great at it. We don’t tend to take that long in growth. We’ve been working on it for a couple of years. We want to see more results, more sustained results. And one of the benefits, on the flipside, of being a narrowly diversified company, is we’re able to still execute and perform to promises, even when stuff happens. And growth is clearly the number one agenda for me. It’s the number one agenda for the company. And that’s really where I’m putting all my focus right now, to make sure we are funding the right things. We need to get the average growth rate up to the low end of what we believe is possible. The profit potential is amazing. The best driver of productivity is growth, operating leverage. We get that. And so between the organization changes we made, between the way we’re flowing resources and we’ve changed resources, it’s all about to drive a more sustained growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets :
Just kind of back on the guidance, and maybe a follow-on to what another caller was asking about, just within your guidance range, you seem like you’re talking about more negatives than positives. And I’m just wondering if I’m not picking up on any kind of positive offsets within the number, whether it be lower corporate expense or some additional restructuring savings that you get later in the year. Or should we just be taking our numbers down a little bit within the range?
John Stauch:
I think we’re looking at a couple of things. We were hopeful that water transport would recover, but we didn’t plan on it happening. We never really gave Q2 guidance, so within our plans, I don’t think we’re bringing up anything new today within water transport. We’re just sharing with everybody that we doubt it’s going to recover back to historical levels and be any positive contributor past the $3.85 to $4.00 that we’re giving. We continue to work all those restructuring actions, which are more than offsetting the water transport headwind, and we feel very confident that we’re building the growth process, as Randy said, that is going to generate the growth that’s going to give us the leverage. So right now we feel like we’re being really balanced. Obviously, we’re managing the corporate expenses for two reasons. One is we’re keeping the spending lower as a contingency, but the other reason is there’s a lot to absorb in the business right now in integration, and they don’t need more initiatives on top of what they’re already driving. So those are all the normal things that a business goes through, this cycle. But I think we feel like we’re on plan for the year, and we feel like we’ve got enough positives to offset the negatives. Things have been a little bit more choppy in the external markets. I don’t think anybody anticipated a slower start to January. I think we scrambled, like most companies, to make that all up, absorb those costs within our productivity in Q1 as well. So I think you’re just hearing a balanced view from us, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets :
And then just on this bidding activity, when do you think you start to see that acceleration in the order book?
Randall Hogan :
[crosstalk] better, and expecting the second half to start seeing some shipments from it.
John Stauch:
Randy’s put the business on a weekly pulse cycle. If you want to take a look at orders and you want to look at your front log, which is a manageable process, to have visibility into what’s coming, they you want to have a predictability on the hit rate, you want to turn that into what you expect your daily orders rate would be, and what you want to see is a day to day improvement against that. And clearly, given what we saw in valves in Q1, that’s where Randy’s got the business target in Q2. And we all have visibility into how we’re doing against that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Konigsberg from Vertical Research.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners:
Just coming back to valves and controls, it sounds like you are optimistic that you will start to see a better ordering environment, but I guess I don’t know if you’re getting any indications as far as the pricing of the early surge in potential orders coming to market. Typically when we see these types of cycles, it does get pretty price competitive in the beginning, and then [unintelligible] takes place, it gets better. So I guess from what you see today, do you see pricing pressure potential associated with the early projects and how disciplined do you expect to be associated with those dates?
John Stauch :
I think oil and gas, as we said before, will always have a price element there that’s the most competition in that space. I think the thing that we’re looking at now is based upon our substantial productivity that we’ve driven, we have to have the confidence to maybe take a little bit lower gross margin knowing that we can drive the productivity in those projects. I can’t tell you that we’ve lost anything over price, though. But we want to have that type of visibility to know that if we are this confident we can continue to get the productivity, does that open up an increased order book for us? Randy, I don’t know if you want to comment, but I don’t think there’s been any of that element. I’d also say that a window that we have as well is we have an [unintelligible] and controls business, which serves our competition, the whole industry. And I can assure you that based upon their performance in the quarter, it doesn’t feel like we’ve lost share. So we have an inside view to the rest of the world in the valve space. We are still the world’s leading valves and control player, so we feel we’re involved in every project. And we feel like we’re going to win our fair share here.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners :
And then just moving over to working capital. That was a little bit more of a headwind than I thought it would be in the first quarter. Is it just related to the cadence of how activity progressed through the quarter?
Randall Hogan :
You know, we had more stuff that would have sold in January that we would have got cash for. But it just wasn’t balanced in terms of the usual mix of sales by month. The quarter always is a cash usage quarter for us, just because of the nature of the business.
Brian Konigsberg - Vertical Research Partners :
And I know you’ve made comments before on bringing working capital from Flow Control down to more in line levels with legacy Pentair. Is that a benefit you expect you’ll see in 2014? And I guess how much more typical does that become if the cycle is starting to get going?
John Stauch :
No, I think we made great progress in ’13. We still have a long way to go, but I think we expect to make another big jump forward here in 2014. It’s just receivable discipline. It’s inventory disciplines, and it’s tracking it and managing it, and holding people accountable to it. No, we think we’re still going to make progress, even with growth in the business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus :
A couple questions on the short cycle oil and gas business. You talked about in your prepared comments that there’s more variability in that business than you thought there was going to be. I think we all understand the timing issues in the long cycle business, but what’s behind their variability in that business, in your opinion?
John Stauch :
What I was saying was, in this quarter, we saw a lower short cycle business. That was a surprise, frankly, that, if you will, book in the quarter, ship in the quarter was the lowest conversion that we’ve seen going back in history since before we owned it. And it just seems like that in our area, in our installed base, that there was a little bit of a slow start. And I don’t know if that was weather related in the U.S. There’s a lot to conjecture, but I can’t give you root cause analysis on it. But we’re certainly focused on it. That’s one of the things that, as John mentioned, we have some new disciplines in terms of weekly reviews on order rates. It’s one of the things I think we’re watching to understand better. So I wouldn’t say that that’s something that was worse in the first quarter than we have seen.
Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus :
At this point, are you able to say that you expect that conversion rate to improve?
Randall Hogan :
We would expect it to revert to the mean. That short cycle business is largely replacement. You know, as long as the refineries are running, as long as work is being done, products get worn out. So it’s the kind of thing you wouldn’t expect to have a high percent of deviation around the mean.
John Stauch :
One of the things that we’ll have a clearer picture as we conclude the year, Randy and I both have a lot of experience in long cycle businesses. And when you get into project and maintenance related businesses, Q1 is usually the lowest quarter and Q4 is usually the highest quarter. So one of the conjectures is, the high rate of book and ship in Q4 of last year impacted the low rate of book and ship in Q1, but they were on a different fiscal year. Really shouldn’t be an element of difference. Quarters should be quarters. And you should be responding to whatever the customer demands are. And so we should probably see a more normalized cycle with Q1 being the lowest shipment quarter, Q4 being the highest shipment quarter. And we’ll see how that plays out this year. But that’s what Randy and I are expecting, and that’s what we’ve forecasted.
Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus :
And you also said that you expect the ramp in short cycle oil and gas as the year goes on, I know we’ve heard similar things from other companies. Can you just provide a little bit more color on what you’re seeing out there that gives you that confidence?
Randall Hogan :
Well, again, it’s the bidding activity, and it’s the quoting activity that gives us that confidence.
Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus :
Are we seeing those turn into orders in a timely fashion?
John Stauch:
That’s what we continue to track, which I was talking earlier about. We want to make sure that we’re looking at those hit rates, we’re looking at the time in the cycle, from the time that the bidding goes into the front log to when it converts to an order. And we obviously have a lot more data and much more track record now that Randy and I can push the business to see. We are very optimistic as the market is, and we’re tracking those orders. And our expectation is April is a big step up from March, and right now we’re not off of that expectation.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari from Credit Suisse.
Hamzah Mazari - Credit Suisse:
On valves and controls, can you just remind us what share of sales is aftermarket short cycle sales over there and how much of the growth in that business is driven by share gain? And also, some pretty quick update on if you’re seeing any revenue synergies coming through, or any color on that front?
John Stauch :
Roughly we would expect a normal cycle to be somewhere around 50% to 60% into what we call the installed base. And that’s mostly like for like replacement against whatever spec you won, for the most part. And then the rest would be a major expansion and/or some type of greenfield application. Obviously, when you’re on large project types of cycles, it probably shifts to more 40% in the installed and 60% elsewhere. The second part of your question, on sales synergies, we continue to be able to take these 20 product platforms, now that we have the visibility, and those that are strong in energy, try to pull the rest with them. And we continue to be excited about the pull through opportunities that a leading product provider has to bring the rest of our product technologies through product. So we’re as excited about that opportunity as when we acquired [unintelligible].
Randall Hogan :
All right, thank you very much.