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QUALCOMM Incorporated logo
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM · US · NASDAQ
164.1
USD
+7.98
(4.86%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Ms. Heather Ace Chief Human Resources Officer 2.95M
Mr. Cristiano Renno Amon Chief Executive Officer, President & Director 2.38M
Ms. Ann N. Cathcart Chaplin General Counsel & Corporate Secretary 1.05M
Mr. Alexander H. Rogers President of Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) & Global Affairs 1.17M
Mr. Colin Ryan Chief Strategy & Corporate Development Officer --
Mr. Neil Martin SVice President of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer --
Mr. Akash Palkhiwala Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer 1.13M
Dr. James H. Thompson Chief Technology Officer of Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. 1.29M
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan Vice President of Investor Relations --
Mr. Don McGuire Senior Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-08-02 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 160.5
2024-07-05 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 205.0847
2024-07-05 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 2000 205.8652
2024-06-30 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 143 0
2024-06-30 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 168 0
2024-07-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 199.47
2024-06-30 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director D - D-Return Common Stock 165 199.18
2024-06-03 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 209.61
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 203.5737
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 600 204.4829
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 700 205.2468
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 206.266
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 207.7825
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 208.285
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 209.1899
2024-06-03 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 210.555
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 547.5519 0
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 631.9386 0
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 547 0
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 631 0
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 779 197.76
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1075.9573 0
2024-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1075 0
2024-05-21 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1116 196.11
2024-05-22 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 358 202.1292
2024-05-21 Smit Neil director D - S-Sale Common Stock 3069 200.9352
2024-05-15 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8100 190.01
2024-05-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director D - S-Sale Common Stock 744.1399 181.5169
2024-05-09 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8100 181
2024-05-09 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1500 180.3448
2024-05-09 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1500 181.0253
2024-05-03 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director D - S-Sale Common Stock 2056 178.21
2024-05-03 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 182
2024-04-04 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 865 170.1509
2024-04-04 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 172.165
2024-04-04 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 174.5436
2024-04-04 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1435 175.3276
2024-04-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 168.27
2024-03-31 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 196 0
2024-03-31 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 167 0
2024-03-31 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director D - D-Return Common Stock 179 169.3
2024-03-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-10 Henderson Jeffrey William director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-10 Henderson Jeffrey William director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 Johnson Gregory N director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 Johnson Gregory N director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-10 LIVERMORE ANN M director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-10 LIVERMORE ANN M director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-10 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director D - D-Return Common Stock 663 170.57
2024-03-10 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 Miller Jamie S director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2056.6383 0
2024-03-10 Miller Jamie S director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2056 0
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 171.3225
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 172.32
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 173.1935
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 409 175.5227
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1800 176.3433
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 413 177.0466
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 78 173.95
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 350 171.4079
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 172.7415
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 173.4892
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 174.7408
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 750 175.8142
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1100 176.6393
2024-03-07 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 177.44
2024-03-07 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8100 169.6
2024-03-05 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 FIELDS MARK director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 Henderson Jeffrey William director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 Johnson Gregory N director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 LIVERMORE ANN M director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 Miller Jamie S director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 ROSENFELD IRENE B director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 VINCIQUERRA ANTHONY J director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 1624 0
2024-03-05 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 348 160.665
2024-03-05 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 341 160.6116
2024-03-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 159.39
2024-03-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8100 159.5
2024-02-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 545 0
2024-02-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 627.9604 0
2024-02-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 545 0
2024-02-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 453 151.96
2024-02-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 627 0
2024-02-21 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 371 149.83
2024-01-22 Palkhiwala Akash J. CFO & COO A - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 7850 0
2024-01-19 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8100 149.5
2024-01-11 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 139
2023-12-31 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 205 0
2023-12-31 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 240 0
2023-12-15 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23426 0
2023-12-15 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 11615 143.13
2023-12-15 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 23426.8012 0
2023-12-15 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3806 0
2023-12-15 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1887 143.13
2023-12-15 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 3806.2908 0
2023-12-15 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 386 0
2023-12-15 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3329 0
2023-12-15 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 3329.0933 0
2023-12-15 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 386 0
2023-12-15 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 386 143.13
2023-12-15 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4971 0
2023-12-15 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 2227 143.13
2023-12-15 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 4971.0629 0
2023-12-15 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8200 0
2023-12-15 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4066 143.13
2023-12-15 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 8200.612 0
2023-12-15 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7024 0
2023-12-15 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 3813 143.13
2023-12-15 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 7024.5512 0
2023-12-15 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10542 0
2023-12-15 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5723 143.13
2023-12-15 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 10542.4711 0
2023-12-13 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 14437 0
2023-12-13 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 7158 138.8
2023-12-13 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1483 0
2023-12-13 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 736 138.8
2023-12-13 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 12248 0
2023-12-13 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 58328 0
2023-12-13 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 28919 138.8
2023-12-13 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 5992 0
2023-12-13 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2971 138.8
2023-12-13 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 57637 0
2023-12-13 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 15130 0
2023-12-13 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 24790 0
2023-12-13 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 12291 138.8
2023-12-13 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 2547 0
2023-12-13 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1263 138.8
2023-12-13 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 20173 0
2023-12-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 52493 0
2023-12-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 26026 138.8
2023-12-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5392 0
2023-12-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2674 138.8
2023-12-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 28819 0
2023-12-13 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 29165 0
2023-12-13 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 14460 138.8
2023-12-14 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 12972 140.4976
2023-12-13 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 2996 0
2023-12-13 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 1486 138.8
2023-12-13 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 17292 0
2023-12-13 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 8646 0
2023-12-11 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 134.51
2023-12-02 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit 6541 0
2023-11-29 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 3098 130
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 2499.7746 0
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2499 0
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1638 129.51
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1065 0
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1065.9701 0
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1172 0
2023-11-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1172.3638 0
2023-11-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1598 0
2023-11-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1211 129.51
2023-11-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1318 0
2023-11-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1598.4308 0
2023-11-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1318.7756 0
2023-11-13 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 124
2023-11-09 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 120.1132
2023-11-01 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5701 0
2023-11-01 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 1971 110.89
2023-11-01 CHAPLIN ANN C General Counsel&Corp Secretary D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 5701.9435 0
2023-10-11 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 112.28
2023-10-01 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5218 0
2023-10-01 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 4162 111.06
2023-10-01 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6444 0
2023-10-02 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 6001 110.4
2023-10-01 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 5218.7457 0
2023-10-01 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 6444.2605 0
2023-10-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9392 0
2023-10-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8564 111.06
2023-10-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11598 0
2023-10-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 9392.4845 0
2023-10-01 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 11598.6 0
2023-10-01 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5009 0
2023-10-01 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3849 111.06
2023-10-01 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5477 0
2023-10-01 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 5009.1156 0
2023-10-01 Palkhiwala Akash J. Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 5477.0871 0
2023-10-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16698 0
2023-10-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 13367 111.06
2023-10-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12887 0
2023-10-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 16698.0996 0
2023-10-01 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 12887.4522 0
2023-10-01 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2869 0
2023-10-01 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1104 111.06
2023-10-01 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 2869.8386 0
2023-09-30 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 303 0
2023-09-30 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 258 0
2023-09-13 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 27962 113.2286
2023-09-11 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 111.27
2023-08-17 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4752 110.19
2023-08-11 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 114.16
2023-06-30 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 241 0
2023-06-30 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 283 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1827.5958 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 2742.9312 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2742 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2467 105.86
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1827 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1574 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1574.8093 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1300 0
2023-05-20 CATHEY JAMES J Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1300.1395 0
2023-05-20 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7198 0
2023-05-20 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2489 105.86
2023-05-20 ACE HEATHER S Chief Human Resources Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 7198.8481 0
2023-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1049 0
2023-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 759 105.86
2023-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1155 0
2023-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1049.8731 0
2023-05-20 MARTIN NEIL SVP, Finance and CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit 1155.7967 0
2023-04-14 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO A - G-Gift Common Stock 172015 0
2023-04-14 AMON CRISTIANO R President & CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 172015 0
2023-03-31 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Common Stock 225 0
2023-03-31 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Common Stock 264 0
2023-03-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 1091.5467 0
2023-03-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1091 0
2023-03-10 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director D - D-Return Common Stock 352 115.19
2023-03-10 Henderson Jeffrey William director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 3316.6108 0
2023-03-10 Henderson Jeffrey William director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3316 0
2023-03-10 Henderson Jeffrey William director D - D-Return Common Stock 1069 115.19
2023-03-10 Johnson Gregory N director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 1091.5467 0
2023-03-10 Johnson Gregory N director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1091 0
2023-03-10 LIVERMORE ANN M director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3316 0
2023-03-10 LIVERMORE ANN M director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 3316.6108 0
2023-03-10 Miller Jamie S director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2764.7318 0
2023-03-10 Miller Jamie S director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2764 0
2023-03-10 Miller Jamie S director D - D-Return Common Stock 891 115.19
2023-03-10 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 3316.6108 0
2023-03-10 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3316 0
2023-03-10 ROSENFELD IRENE B director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3316 0
2023-03-10 ROSENFELD IRENE B director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 3316.6108 0
2023-03-10 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director D - M-Exempt Deferred Stock Unit 2195.7419 0
2023-03-10 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2195 0
2023-03-10 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director D - F-InKind Common Stock 296 115.19
2023-03-08 ACEVEDO SYLVIA director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 FIELDS MARK director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 Johnson Gregory N director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 Henderson Jeffrey William director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 LIVERMORE ANN M director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 MCLAUGHLIN MARK D director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 Miller Jamie S director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 Smit Neil director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 ROSENFELD IRENE B director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-03-08 VINCIQUERRA ANTHONY J director A - A-Award Deferred Stock Unit 2203 0
2023-02-22 Henderson Jeffrey William director D - S-Sale Common Stock 2500 124.0529
2023-02-23 Henderson Jeffrey William director D - S-Sale Common Stock 2500 124.1874
2023-02-16 THOMPSON JAMES H Chief Technology Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 9999 131.8002
2023-02-03 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 488 130.5429
2023-02-03 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 22631 131.4942
2023-02-03 ROGERS ALEXANDER H President QTL & Global Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 4507 131.5154
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Transcripts
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, July 31, 2024. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853, International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13747430. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In fiscal Q3, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $9.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.33, which was above the midpoint of our guidance range. Revenues from our chipset business of $8.1 billion reflect a sequential growth in automotive and IoT and continued traction of our Snapdragon mobile platforms across leading smartphones. Our automotive and IoT revenues were the result of ongoing execution of our diversification strategy. Licensing business revenues were $1.3 billion. Now I would like to share some key highlights from the business. In automotive, we secured more than 10 new design wins with global automakers during the quarter. These include next-generation digital cockpit connectivity and/or ADAS and autonomy. Our Snapdragon Digital Chassis continue to scale across virtually all OEMs and is now a key asset for the automotive industry. As we look forward, we're focused on extending our industry-leading on-device AI solutions to the Snapdragon Digital Chassis to enable automotive-centric Gen AI use cases and applications. It's important to note that our architecture with capabilities across all domains is uniquely positioned to enable sensor data to be utilized simultaneously for ADAS autonomy workloads and user-centric Gen AI experiences in the digital cockpit. A great example is our Snapdragon Ride Flex solution, which combines digital cockpit and ADAS on a single SoC. Future drivers for automotive growth include Gen AI experiences the software-defined vehicle transition, central computing replacing microcontrollers, expansion into 2-wheelers and core to cloud services. In handsets, we are pleased that all Galaxy Z Fold6 and Flip6 are powered by the Snapdragon 803 for Galaxy, delivering extraordinary AI capabilities premium level performance and power efficiency for foldable devices. Together with Samsung and our other partners, we continue to push the boundaries of own device Gen AI on mobile devices. To that end, we're pleased with the growth and trajectory of AI use cases on smartphones. This continued expansion of AI features is a precursor to next-generation smartphones which we believe will become AI-centric with pervasive on-device AI working across applications in the cloud. Qualcomm is very well-positioned to help drive this transformation across the industry in the coming years. At our upcoming Snapdragon Summit in October, we will reveal details of our next-generation Snapdragon 8 flagship mobile platform, the first to be powered by our custom Oryon CPU. This platform, combined with new and unparalleled NPU AI capabilities is already exceeding both our and our customers' performance expectations. In compute, we're very pleased that Copilot+ PCs powered exclusively by Snapdragon X Series platforms became available for purchase on June 18. This marks the start of one of the most significant transitions in personal computing since the launch of Windows 95 and is restoring performance leadership back to the Windows ecosystem. 20 Copilot+ PCs from Microsoft, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, ASUS and Samsung are now available across 20 countries and 47 retailers. It's important to highlight the unique Copilot+ and Snapdragon ex-elite dedicated retail spaces in Best Buy, Costco, Curies, Harvey Norman and many more. We are very pleased with the initial response with several models sold out at retailers and online. Our retail presence is expected to expand to more than 60 retailers across 25 countries in the coming months. We're also working closely with more than 50 global commercial customers to drive Snapdragon readiness in their respective environments. Additionally, we added the Snapdragon X Series platforms to the Qualcomm AI hub, allowing developers to easily take advantage of optimized AI models to create responsive power-efficient and compelling on-device generative AI applications for Copilot+ PCs. As we look forward to 2025, we are already working with OEMs on the next wave of Copilot+ PCs. In addition to new design wins, our X Series product road map will expand to address PCs with retail prices as low as $700 without compromising NPU performance. Longer term, we believe the benefits of Snapdragon X Series platforms make it clear that the PC ecosystem has begun the transition to an ARM-compatible architecture. As we look forward, we're forecasting that at least of PCs will be AI capable by 2027. Given our clear technology leadership and competitive road map we expect to be positioned as one of the top silicon suppliers for these devices. We also remain excited about the continued positive momentum in XR, particularly the success of Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses. Sales are exceeding our expectations due in part to the integration of Llama into the experience. We foresee an acceleration in demand for extended and mixed reality devices as new use cases enabled by Gen AI gain scale. Snapdragon XR remains the industry platform of choice, and we are engaged with major ecosystem players, including Meta, Google, Microsoft, and others. Most recently, at the Augmented World Expo will showcase 2 of the latest XR devices, NTT's augmented reality glasses and Sony's upcoming head-mounted mixed reality device. In industrial IoT, we're pleased to report that we're now collaborating with Aramco on connectivity, AI and advanced computing solutions for industrial and enterprise use cases in Saudi Arabia. This also includes accelerating development of the industrial 4G, 5G and non-terrestrial networks ecosystem, including the first significant wide area private cellular network for IoT. As the industrial sector is transformed by AI, we expect an increase in demand for more complex on-device processing. This trend aligns well with our core capabilities, especially the computing and AI road map we have built for Auto and PC. As high-performance processing and intelligence at the edge becomes critical for the next phase of enterprise digital transformation, we see a unique opportunity to build a leadership position in this space. In the next few months, we will announce our new dedicated product road map for industrial IoT and including support for multiple operating systems, ability to run multibillion parameter AI models in a comprehensive development platform. Finally, we're very pleased to share that we recently signed a key long-term licensing agreement with Honor, a leading Chinese smartphone OEM. We continue to be pleased with the company's diversification beyond mobile, and we're particularly proud of what we have accomplished to date in automotive and PC. We will provide additional updates on our diversification strategy at our Investor Day in New York on November 19. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with our third fiscal quarter earnings. We are pleased to announce strong non-GAAP results with revenue of $9.4 billion and EPS of $2.33, both of which were above the midpoint of our guidance. QTL revenues of $1.3 billion and EBT margin of 70% were in line with our expectations. QCT delivered revenues of $8.1 billion and EBITDA margin of 27%, which was at the high end of our guidance range, driven by upside in both IoT and automotive. QCT handset revenues of $5.9 billion were in line with expectations, reflecting our scale in premium Android handsets and greater than 50% year-over-year growth in revenues from Chinese OEMs. QCT IoT revenues increased 9% sequentially to $1.4 billion as we continue to see a gradual recovery in the industry environment. We delivered our fourth consecutive quarter of record QCT automotive revenues of $811 million, with sequential growth of 34%. Our revenue acceleration reflects content growth in new vehicle launches as we become the leading supplier of advanced computing and connectivity solutions to the automotive industry. Lastly, we returned $2.3 billion to stockholders during the quarter, including $1.3 billion in stock repurchases and $949 million in dividends. Before turning to guidance, I would like to outline 3 factors included in our forecast. First, Consistent with our long-term financial planning assumption of largely flat handset units, we continue to estimate global 3G/4G 5G units in calendar '24 to be flat to slightly up on a year-over-year basis. Second, our license to export products to Huawei, which was set to expire in late calendar '24 was revoked on May 7. This change will impact our revenues in both the current quarter and the first quarter of fiscal '25. Lastly, our fourth fiscal quarter includes an additional week as we align our fiscal reporting period with the calendar quarter end every 5 to 6 years. Now turning to fourth fiscal quarter guidance. We are forecasting revenues of $9.5 billion to $10.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.45 to $2.65. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.35 billion to $1.55 billion and EBT margins of 70% to 74%, reflecting normal seasonality for handset units. In QCT, we expect revenues of $8.1 billion to $8.7 billion and EBT margins of 27% to 29%. We expect QCT handset revenues to grow by low single-digit percentage sequentially. This forecast reflects an increase in purchases from a modem-only handset customer partially offset by seasonally lower Android revenue ahead of our new Snapdragon premium chipset launch in the first quarter of fiscal '25. We expect QCT IoT revenues will increase by low double-digit percentage sequentially, driven by growth across consumer, networking and industrial. Following our outperformance in the third quarter, we expect QCT automotive revenues to remain flat in the fourth fiscal quarter. We are on track to deliver approximately 50% year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal '24, providing confidence in our ability to execute to our long-term targets. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $2.2 billion. In closing, we are pleased with our execution and financial performance in fiscal '24. Based on the midpoint of our guidance, we are on track to deliver strong non-GAAP EPS growth of approximately 20% relative to fiscal '23. Over the last quarter, industry support for our vision for on-device AI has accelerated and been validated by several key players. Beyond handsets and PCs, we expect on-device AI to drive competitive differentiation for us in industrial, networking, automotive and XR. Our leading technology and product portfolio has positioned us to continue to execute on our diversification strategy. And in the months ahead, we look forward to introducing new industry-leading products across all our end markets. Finally, as Cristiano outlined, we'll be hosting our Investor Day on November 19, where we'll provide an update on our IoT and automotive diversification strategy. This concludes our prepared remarks. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question will come from the line of Matt Ramsay with TD Cowen.
Matt Ramsay:
I have a couple of questions, guys, really highlighting some of the diversification the company is now starting to deliver on in the revenue. I guess the first one is in the automotive business, some pretty big upside there. And maybe you could talk a little bit about like the -- you're seeing some of this revenue come through now in OEM programs that no doubt you won 2 or 3 years ago. Do you think that continues as we roll through the next several quarters? I mean what kind of momentum could we see as some of these units start to roll out from, I guess, the programs you won a long time back? And then Cristiano on the second one, people keep asking lots of questions about AI PCs. As you know, you're getting really close here to when the holiday ramp period would start for you to sell in units. So maybe you could give us your current take on your expectations of what the PC market could bring in terms of units or revenue for your company as we look forward into the next fiscal year.
Cristiano Amon:
Very good. Thank you, Matt. Thanks for asking the questions. Let me start with automotive. Look, we're very pleased with automotive performance. And I want to start by saying this is you continue to see signs of the pipeline translating into revenue. There are a couple of things we really like it. The first one is -- our automotive revenue is all about share of new cars being launched with our content, also is independent whether the industry is about internal combustion or EV because it's all about digital, would be the Snapdragon Digital Chassis really became a key asset for the automotive industry. And just within the quarter, we have not only the launch of 10 new models with our technology, but also we actually have 10 new design wins, which continue to add to the pipeline. So we're very excited about that. We will continue to see as new cars get launched with our technology from the pipeline, the revenue to grow. And as Akash said in the script, we're actually on track to the metric we provided for $4 billion in 2026. One side comment on your question. An upside is what Gen AI is doing in automotive. Gen AI use cases, especially using large language models for audio. It was a great user interface for were behind the wheel. We're starting to see a lot of interesting use case being developed. That upside to our model, it could be an upgrade of content in the digital cockpits that we have in. The second comment which is about PCs. I will start by saying we're very pleased is exceeding our expectations. We -- it's a new version of Windows, the Copilot+ is a new architecture with an ARM compatible. We expect that, that will ramp over a period of time. But what we have seen in the market right now with the 20 models that can launch is exceeding our internal targets. Some models, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, had sold out. And I think we should expect that, that will continue to be a crescendo, slow and steady as the market transition. We will have new product announcements coming up at EFA, and you're going to continue to see more Copilot+ features coming from Microsoft we're very happy about that as the same thing we did with auto, we expect PC to be the next biggest driver of diversification for the company, and we'll continue to track every quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
Congrats on the strong print here. I guess, Cristiano, if I start you off with those smartphone question here related to VI smartphones. One, can you share if you're seeing any depreciable difference in the demand for smartphones with AI features in them from consumers already. And as you look to the pipeline in terms of design wins for next year, how are you thinking about proliferation of the AI features and capabilities into more mid-tier or outside of the flagship to your phones that you work with, with your customers? And I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you for your question, Samik. So on smartphones, I would start by saying one thing that we really like. And I think it was reflected by some of the metrics provided by Akash he talks about in his remarks, 50% growth within China with Chinese OEMs. So I has expanded the size of the premium tier. So even in a market which it's kind of flattish to low single-digits in growth. The premium tier is actually growing faster. And we've seen that. We're seeing a larger premium tier enabled by AI. And to your specific question, we are happy with the trajectory of AI features. We used to have a few. Now we have tens of AI features. And eventually, when they get to 100, we're going to start to see a change that -- a smartphone with AI feature will become an AI smartphone. We don't have any heroic assumptions in our model, but we actually like the direction this is going that could create an interesting upside if we have an AI-driven upgrade cycle. It's still early in the process, but the use cases are becoming more interesting. I pointed to the increase of use cases in the Galaxy Flip6 and Fold6. China has a number of use cases. They're going to be launched in the next flagship. And I know you asked about bringing AI to the master. We intend to do that. The same thing we're doing with the PC which is as we expand the road map, we're not compromising on AI capabilities. We're going to see us doing that within our mobile road map. But on the premium tier, I'm actually very excited given the upcoming launch of our next Snapdragon that has our custom CPU. And you're going to see the same shift in performance that we have done in the PC ecosystem restoring the performance back to the Windows ecosystem, you're going to see doing us something similar in phones. And AI is going to be a big part of the story.
Samik Chatterjee:
Got it. And a quick one for Akash. Akash, the guide for September revenues, that looks pretty similar to what you were sort of soft guiding us to back sort of 90 days ago, although you now have incremental headwinds with the license to export to Huawei. How should we think about sort of where you're finding the offsets? Where is the upside to help you offset that incremental headwind?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Thanks, Samik. Samik, we're pretty happy with the way the quarter has played out, right? If you look at our handset business, we are growing. We are -- we're guiding that will grow low single-digit percentage on a quarter-over-quarter basis. IoT, we're guiding low double-digit growth, and we're seeing strength across industrial edge networking and consumer. And then auto coming off of an extremely strong quarter in June, we're guiding flat revenue in the September quarter. And so all of these, both IoT and automotive are incremental to our previous expectations, and you're seeing that benefit show up in our guidance.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.
Chris Caso:
I guess first question is just a clarification on the extra week in the quarter that you referred to. Can you speak about what impact you might expect it to have on both revenue and cost? And if there's any implications on that the absence of the extra week, as you go into the following quarter, which is obviously a seasonally strong quarter.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Sure, Chris. If you think about the 2 factors I outlined for the guidance, which is the extra week on one hand and then offset by the Huawei reduction, revenue reduction on the other side. Those 2 largely offset each other. And so the net impact on our overall guidance is pretty limited when you consider the impact of both factors. Specifically on the extra week, as you know, not all weeks are created equal as you think about the different parts of our business. So what we've factored in is incremental revenue on the QCT side, incremental OpEx on the OpEx side. And then within -- sorry, incremental revenue on the QTL side. And then within QCT, revenue forecast and the benefit that we have from a flagship phone launch that doesn't really change based on the number of weeks. So that remains largely consistent and these factors are already included in. But kind of the big message is when you step back and look at the 2 key factors I outlined, they're pretty much canceled out against each other.
Chris Caso:
Okay. Understood. And then moving over to QTL. The guidance for the fourth quarter is -- it's outside of the range that you have been talking about before. You haven't changed your expectation for global handset units. So can you speak to the reason for the QTL guidance and if that's sustainable going forward because typically, the first quarter is a stronger quarter for that segment.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, sure. So the QTL guidance is relatively straightforward. If you look at June to September, we typically see very small growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So we factored that in. And then we have the extra week on top of it as well, which is also factored into our numbers. So that's how we got to the number we're guiding for QTL.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I want to ask the second half of Chris' question again that you didn't quite get to. The extra week, I should think about the implication for December quarter seasonality coming off of that. What are you guys thinking for December? If you could help us shape that a little bit?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Stacy. So as you know, well, we typically grow into the first quarter into the December quarter, and we're expecting that it's a seasonally strongest quarter of the year going forward. And as we think about the quarter, there couple of factors we consider. First is the launch of our new Android premium tier chip, which is going to be a tailwind for us. We do go back from the 16 weeks -- 14 weeks back to 13 weeks within the quarter. And then relative to last year, we'll not have Huawei product revenue going forward, which we did have last year. So net of all of this, when you look at a year-over-year basis, we expect revenue to be largely -- revenue growth to be largely consistent with the year-over-year growth we saw in December quarter last year.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. That's helpful. If you could also just give us any sort of incremental color. How much of the guide actually includes how much of the guide is PC revenue at this point for next quarter? I know you said the consumer piece sounds like it's growing in IoT, that's where it is, but how much of it actually is PCs?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. I mean Stacy and all candor, we're a few weeks into our launch. And so it's too early to kind of have either a bullish assumption or a specific assumption on PC. We do have indications from our customers and we've tried our best to factor it in as we usually do. But as Cristiano said, to us, this is about kind of the longer-term growth opportunity and being very specific on sell-through in the short term is not really something that we have insight into. But we will, as we get to Investor Day, we're going to give a lot more disclosure on our specific plans on revenue ramp.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
Joe Moore:
I wanted to come back to the 50% growth in China handset. And it sounds like you talked about growth in the premium tier there. Can you kind of give us a sense of how much of that is price versus units? And is that -- is the market expanding? And then maybe market share commentary because your numbers seem better than your competitor.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So if you look at the total handset market, our general assumption is that from '23 to '24, it's flat to slightly up. So the market is not growing. But within that, the premium tier, the trend has been very positive. We've gone from greater than $400 representing 21% of the market now to representing 31% of the market. And so that's very significant growth that we are benefiting from. And as you know, we are very strong at the premium tier. And as that market expands, we get to participate in that, not just from a revenue perspective, but content increase perspective as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.
Christopher Rolland:
I guess in your latest Q, you talked about a bunch of new licenses coming up. I think they expire early fiscal '25, including Huawei. I guess, first of all, the 4G at Huawei would this might affect these negotiations? Do you expect everyone else to sign in those negotiations as well? And then lastly, do we think about Huawei that impact is roughly $150 million a quarter. Is that a fair number on the 4G stuff from Huawei?
Alex Rogers:
Chris, this is Alex. Thanks for the question. So if you look at the licensing progress basically over the last year or so, we set out to execute on a number of renewals and extensions. And we've done actually a really good job doing that. The most recent was getting on or signed up to a long-term agreement. And then, as you know, Apple extended through '27. But we also noted recently that we have 2 major Chinese OEM signed long term. Well, we haven't named them, but they are significant handset manufacturers. And then we're working through negotiations with others that we still have optimistic expectations in terms of getting them signed up. We also recently announced that we signed up tranching to a 5G license, and we're still negotiating with them. There's some litigation ongoing, but I think the important thing is to focus on the 5G license with that company and the ongoing negotiations. So Huawei is a company that we've been engaged with, just like the others in terms of trying to move negotiations forward. We expect that to continue. We don't really have any news on that just yet.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then from a revenue breakdown perspective, as you know, we don't break down our QTL revenue by OEM, but a reasonable way of thinking about it is look at the scale of the market the number of units, any specific OEM contributes to the scale of the market and apply that to our overall revenue stream.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
One question, one follow-up. First one, probably more for Cristiano. I just wanted to see how you feel with your leadership position on both the modem and the apps processor side in your handset business. How do you feel about the relative market share that you'll have in the penetration at given customers? There's kind of perpetual debate about what you're doing with your lead Korean customer, year-to-year, gen-to-gen same thing with your modem only customer. So as you look forward over the next year or 2, how are you feeling about the penetration that Qualcomm can have at the major customers?
Cristiano Amon:
All right. Thanks for your question, Ross, loaded question. So I'm going to have to unpack one by one. I think the first part of the question, how do we think about modem technology. We feel pretty good about our modem technology. I think this is one of the core competencies of the company. We continue to be the number 1 company in the country in a number of wireless patents and extended essential patents and continue to be the company pushing for the road map. As it relates to our business with Apple, we still operate with the framework that we provided to you all. I think when we extended the chipset agreement, and we expect to be operating within that. We have no new update to provide it everything above what we said before is an upside. So we don't have that in our financial planning assumptions above what we had disclosure. When we think about the application processor, I think the conversation is a little bit more interesting because we have always said the leadership in AI performance, we always had the leadership and sustained peak and sustained performance in mobile gaming in other applications with our Adreno GPU. And now for the first time in a while, we're going to have our own custom CPU, which will be announced at the Snapdragon Summit and will be in the flagship devices launching towards the end of the year, beginning of 2025. So I will argue that our application processor advantage is accelerating. And as I said in this earnings, I think the launch of the Copilot+ PC was really a graduation for Qualcomm as it used to be perceived as a communications company isn't really a computing company. To the point that now we become the benchmark for others to follow within the PC industry. And I think that is going to be reflected in -- in the handset as well as we have our own custom CPU. As it relates to relationship with Samsung, we have executed agreements with them. It's largely consistent to what you have seen with the launch of the GS24, how is that going to continue. We're pretty happy with the relationship. And I think we both have a lot of opportunity with the AI coming into premium smartphones.
Ross Seymore:
I guess as my follow-up for Akash. One, in the answer to your prior question, you said that your year-over-year growth in December would be about the same as it was last December. Just a clarification. Was that just for QCT? And then I guess my bigger picture question, how should we think about gross margins in QCT going forward? Looks like you're implying them down a bit in the September quarter, but still flat year-over-year. Has the diversification process happens, automotive, PCs, et cetera? How should we think about that line in your income statement?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Ross. So that comment was really focused on overall company, so not just QCT, but the overall Qualcomm metrics. From a gross margin perspective, we did slightly better than we expected. We had guided in the third quarter. And what we're doing is we're guiding fourth quarter in line with the guidance we had provided for third quarter. I think as you look forward beyond fourth quarter into fiscal '25 using fourth quarter as a way to model the going-forward path is a reasonable way of thinking about it.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
Can you hear me?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes, we can.
Tal Liani:
Okay. Perfect. Sorry. So I need help to define your addressable market in compute, meaning. Is it mostly about consumer laptops, enterprise? How do you envision your addressable market in the compute segment? And the second thing is you talked a lot about AI, AI inclusion in handsets. When we talk to carriers, they seem to be far away from it in the sense that they can't find the applications yet. What do you -- what do you think is going to drive the deployment? What kind of applications and what's the timing of applications that will drive the deployment of AI in handsets?
Cristiano Amon:
Tal, this is Cristiano. Thank you for your question. Let me take the first one. You should think about addressable market the follow way. First of all, it's Windows 11, addressable market. We're very focused right now on laptops, whether it's commercial laptops for enterprise, consumer laptops. We're ranging price points, I think, especially as we talked in the prepared remarks, extending the road map from $700 and above. That's -- and what is defined as AI PC, a metric that I can provide to you. And I think there has been a number of OEMs indicating their respective views, but we forecast about 50% of our computers sold in 2027 will be AI PCs. That's one way to think about it. And we continue to basically see the transition of as upgrades are happening to Windows 11 and Copilot+ PCs, an opportunity for us to participate with a highly differentiated solution. I think your second question...
Akash Palkhiwala:
It was on AI applications.
Cristiano Amon:
It was about AI applications for devices. So here's how you should think about it. AI is going to do on phones, whether you're going to text, whether you're going to talk, whether you're going to touch, it's going to be a very important part of the human computer interface. And this is going to start to change a lot of the user experience on apps. It's less of a carrier conversation. It's really more of an application conversation. And those are going to start to change a lot of the use case of existing apps or you're going to start to see as we see the development of new agents that become more relevant. For example, if you are like me, a user of WhatsApp, you're going to see the ability within WhatsApp for you to search with Llama for you to do different things with their model. And eventually, a lot of the models are going to have multiple functionality across multiple apps. The way to measure this is the number of use cases. And we're -- as I said before, we're actually very happy with the trajectory. I'd like to compare what happened with the smartphone. When the smartphone -- first, there were like 10 apps and then became 100 apps and became 1,000 of apps, became hundreds of thousands of apps and then it became very clear what was happening. I think we look at a little bit the same way. We're in the beginning, but we like the number of use cases increasing, and that's going to drive a lot more AI NPU performance in the silicon and hopefully continue to expand the premium and high tier.
Operator:
Our last question is from Tom O'Malley with Barclays.
Tom O'Malley:
I have one for Cristiano and one for Akash. Just very recently here, obviously, in the quarter, there's a huge step-up in the auto portfolio, and I think you guys did a good job of kind of describing what drove that. But you've also, in your deck and kind of in your commentary talking more about AI PC being a driver. Cristiano, if you look at kind of the next 12 months, you hosted an Auto Analyst Day and you kind of talked about the opportunity being back-end loaded, and I think the end date was kind of the late 2020s. But if you look at the next 12 months, what opportunity do you think is more exciting to you the automotive side or the IoT in terms of revenue growth? Obviously, the buckets are different sizes, but just breaking those 2 out as to what can drive some growth there. And then on the Akash side, if you look into Q4, you obviously have an extra week there, but you are seeing OpEx step down. Could you just walk through the moving parts that I would expect it to be up a little bit just given the extra week?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Tom. Actually, I appreciate the question. I really like the question to give me an opportunity to explain this. You should think of Qualcomm -- we're not just trying to build one big business of differentiation. Actually, we're building a number of business -- I'm sorry, of diversification. We're really focused on this. And when we talk about Auto Investor Day, that was actually in September 2022, we kind of outline how that is going to be turning into a big platform for Qualcomm and building into the financials. And then hopefully, you can see now, especially with this quarter, that's materializing. And that will continue. That's not going away. We expect -- given the size of our pipeline, we talk about $4 billion in '26. We talk about $9 billion towards the end of the decade. We're on track to do that. But the second one is PCs. And as we get -- it's early. As I said, we're very happy. It's exceeding our expectations. Some models sold out. We just launched. I think when we get to the Investor Day, we probably will feel comfortable putting a metric out there of what that's going to represent and how that's going to grow over time when we think about the total contribution to Qualcomm. That's one they're very excited. But we don't stop there. The next one, and I encourage you to so what we're going to do next quarter, I think AI and computing, it's driving the industrial road map towards Qualcomm. So we we're completely redesigning our industrial road map, and we're going to unveil that road map in the coming months. So we think about this as -- there are many markets that can benefit from technology. We're super focused on growth and diversification and it's about a number of bets, not just one bet.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And Tom, on your second question on OpEx, we had some non-labor material-related spent and tape-out related spend in the third quarter, which is why third quarter OpEx was higher and it goes down into the fourth quarter despite the extra week. And so it's just timing of non-labor spend that drove it. But fundamentally, no change in kind of the way we are managing OpEx. We're very committed to operating discipline and hiring, even when we do it, it is very focused on specific new skills that are required for diversification. So you won't see a difference in the way we are managing the OpEx for the company.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
No, I just want to just quickly thank all of our partners. Our suppliers, our employees for a great job on PC execution. I think we're very proud of what we accomplished. We will continue to drive AI across each one of our businesses. We feel we have a very unique position in the ability to run AI at the edge. We're very happy with the automotive traction, and we're actually looking forward to the next generation of products launching coming months, as I said, hopefully creating a new vector for growth of the company in the future in industrial IoT. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded May 1, 2024. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853, International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13745532.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala, in addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session.
You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In fiscal Q2, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $9.4 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.44, was above the high end of our guidance. Revenues from our chipset business of $8 billion, reflect strong premium tier demand for Android smartphones and continued momentum in automotive.
Licensing business revenues were $1.3 billion. During the quarter, we also made significant progress on our leading technology and product road maps as well as executing on our growth and diversification opportunities. Let me share some key highlights from the business. As we drive intelligent computing everywhere, we're enabling the ecosystem to develop and commercialize on-device GenAI applications across smartphones next-generation PCs, XR devices, vehicles, industrial edge, robotics, networking and more. To that end, we recently launched the Qualcomm AI Hub, a gateway for developers to enable at scale commercialization of on-device AI applications. It features a library of approximately 100 pre-optimized AI models for devices powered by Snapdragon and Qualcomm platforms, delivering 4x faster inferencing versus nonoptimized models. As AI expands rapidly from the cloud to devices, we are extremely well positioned to capitalize on this growth opportunity, given our leadership position at the edge across technologies, including on-device AI. In automotive, the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is the industry's leading technology solution, and we're pleased to announce that our design win pipeline has increased to approximately $45 billion. We're growing faster than the addressable market and remain on track to achieve more than $4 billion of automotive revenues in fiscal '26. In premium and high-tier smartphones, our Snapdragon mobile platforms continues to set the bar for performance and on-device GenAI capabilities. Recently launched flagship Android devices powered by Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 are seeing strong demand globally, especially in China. We are extending the most sought after 8 Series capabilities, including on-device AI to a broader range of flagship and high-tier smartphones with the new Snapdragon 8S Gen 3 and Snapdragon 7 Plus Gen 3 mobile platforms launching in the second half of 2024. In cellular modems, we have again established a new industry benchmark with the Snapdragon X80, the world's most advanced 5G Modem-RF System. The X80 supports 5G advanced, the next era of 5G in addition to direct to mobile 3GPP compliant satellite communications and leading Release 18 features. Additionally, our networking solutions continue to gain traction as the WiFi 7 transition expands to the enterprise. We are excited about the upcoming launches of next-generation Windows AI PCs powered by Snapdragon. The Snapdragon X Elite is the leader in performance on device AI and power efficiency for the Windows ecosystem and is optimally positioned to lead the transition to true AI PCs. I'm also pleased to share that we recently expanded our compute portfolio with the Snapdragon X Plus platform. which is designed to address a broader range of device tiers. In XR, we're seeing good momentum in augmented and virtual reality. In particular, the Ray-Ban Meta glasses powered by our Snapdragon AR1 Gen 1 platform continue to gain traction with consumers. Additionally, the Meta Horizon OS running on Snapdragon is now open and available to third-party hardware makers. This is a significant milestone as they will expand the device ecosystem. Finally, at the Embedded World Conference in Germany, we announced 2 new solutions for the industrial IoT ecosystem. The Qualcomm QCC730 micro-power WiFi SoC in the Qualcomm RB3 Gen 2 platform. The QCC730 is specifically designed for IoT connectivity in battery power, industrial, commercial and consumer applications, featuring 88% lower power consumption than previous generations. In the RB3 Gen 2 platform is a complete hardware and software solution designed for a wide range of products, including various types of robots, drones, industrial handheld devices and more. The RB3 is supported by the recently announced AI hub and also feature support for Qualcomm Linux, a comprehensive package of operating system, software and developer tools for our IoT platforms. In summary, we're very pleased with the continued progress on our growth and diversification strategy. Beyond handsets, we have established leadership positions across automotive, XR and networking and we are well positioned to do the same in PCs, industrial and edge AI. We're optimistic about the opportunities ahead for the company and will continue to execute on our plan to deliver long-term growth and value for shareholders. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with our second fiscal quarter earnings. We are pleased to announce another quarter of strong non-GAAP results with revenues of $9.4 billion and EPS of $2.44, which was above the high end of our guidance range. QTL revenues of $1.3 billion and EBT margin of 71%, were in line with our expectations. .
QCT delivered revenues of $8 billion and EBT margin of 29%, which was at the high end of our guidance range, reflecting strength across handset and automotive. QCT handset revenues of $6.2 billion included the benefit of flagship Android smartphone launches powered by our Snapdragon Gen 3 mobile platform. QCT IoT revenues increased 9% sequentially to $1.2 billion, which was slightly better than our expectations. We had another record quarter in QCT Automotive, with revenues increasing by 35% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting increased content in new vehicle launches with our Snapdragon Digital Chassis products. We returned $1.6 billion to stockholders during the quarter, including $731 million in stock repurchases and $895 million in dividends. During the quarter, we also announced an increase in our quarterly dividends from $0.80 to $0.85 per share, consistent with our commitment to dividend growth. Lastly, the sale of the restraint control system business successfully completes the divestitures of the non-Arriver businesses related to our acquisition of Veoneer. We are very pleased with this acquisition, and the Arriver team is executing on the development of our computer vision and drive policy ADAS software stack, targeting vehicle launches starting in late '25. Now turning to guidance. Our forecast for global 3G, 4G, 5G handset units remains unchanged for calendar '24. We estimate that global handset units will be flat to slightly up on a year-over-year basis. This includes expected growth of high single digit to low double-digit percentage in 5G handsets. For the third fiscal quarter, we are forecasting revenues of $8.8 billion to $9.6 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 to $2.35. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion and EBT margins of 69% to 73%, reflecting normal seasonality for handset units. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion and EBT margins of 25% to 27%. Consistent with our previous comments, we anticipate QCT handset revenues to decline by mid-single-digit percentage sequentially, reflecting a seasonal trend due to the absence of flagship handset launches in the quarter. We expect QCT IoT revenues to grow sequentially by low to mid-single-digit percentage as we continue to see a gradual recovery from the macro factors impacting the industry. Following a record performance in the second fiscal quarter, we expect QCT Automotive revenues to grow by low double-digit percentage quarter-over-quarter as the increase in our design win pipeline continues to materialize into revenue. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $2.2 billion. In closing, we are pleased with our execution and financial performance for the first half of the fiscal year. Specifically, we saw year-over-year handset revenues from our Chinese OEM increased by greater than 40% in the first half of fiscal '24, reflecting our strong competitive positioning and recovery of demand. Looking forward, our technology leadership positions us to continue to execute on our diversification strategy across IoT and automotive. In IoT, we look forward to normalization and demand across our customer base exiting fiscal '24. In addition, we're excited about the launch of our next-generation AI PCs powered by our Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus platforms from all leading PC OEMs starting in mid-'24. These PCs will deliver industry-leading processor performance, advanced on-device GenAI features and extended battery life. In automotive, we are pleased that our design win pipeline has increased from $30 billion in September '22 and to approximately $45 billion, providing confidence in executing to our long-term revenue targets. This concludes our prepared remarks. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] One moment please for the first question from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
Matthew Ramsay:
Cristiano, I wanted to ask you a question about sort of handset, modem and RF architecture as we move into sort of the era of AI in handsets and mobile devices, where I think it's likely that the compute system and the memory system of the phone take up more battery life potentially as we try to compute some of these applications for AI inference on the device.
And I wonder if that how that changes your potential opportunity for your modem business integrated with your RF business. There was a -- one of your competitors talked about socket lost last night, and I think it went to you guys. I wonder if you might comment on how or why. But I think it's a bigger picture question as the compute subsystem of the phone puts pressure on the modem and RF does that give you opportunities for further integration.
Cristiano Amon:
Well, let me unpack this. I think as far as modern-RF, we believe we have a very competitive RF front end portfolio, and we have been really delivering unique features across the modem RF, especially on power. I -- as a general comment, not related to AI, but as general comment. I think as you look at RF AI running on device and AI running on the cloud modem becomes more important, especially things like latency of response or hybrid AI models has a new importance of real-time connectivity.
So we're starting to see more and more the modem becoming more important. The real advantage for Qualcomm is not only on the modem-RF, even though I think we're very proud of having the leadership position there is the fact that we actually created the ability to run AI pervasive on devices without compromising battery life. And that has been reflected within our NPU performance both on phones as well as PCs and cars. And I think that's the key, I think, technology leadership position for AI, which is the best possible performance per watt.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
Maybe if I can start with Cristiano asking sort of you mentioned the strong performance you're seeing in the China market, but maybe any more details in terms of just what you're seeing in the market relative to any specific numbers that you can share because there's been a lot of conflicting data points about the market being strong in 1Q and then maybe taking a breather.
So curious to understand what you're seeing on the ground there in terms of the China market. Also, it's always been sort of a leader in adopting new technology and it seems like the AI phones are doing well. So how much of the recent strength do you attribute to AI-led upgrade cycle versus a normal market rebound? And I have a quick follow-up after that.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Samik. So what moves to market for us premium and high tier. And I think what we're seeing in the China market is that the mix is improving. As the market has stabilized, when and return to some form of normality. What we really liked is that within that market, premium and high tier as a percentage continue to increase, and that's actually what's driving the results. And you -- and we are seeing the very first instances of on-device AI and GenAI being launched in premium devices, and that has been resonating well with the consumer. So it's a positive trend that we like.
The other color I'd like to add is, we have not seen signs of weakness in the Android premium market in China, especially with our OEMs. So a lot of the strength is really coming from premium devices from Xiaomi, Honor, Oppo, OnePlus, Vivo. And I think Huawei entering that market actually increased the overall TAM of premium Android.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And maybe, Samik, to add a couple of quick data points on top. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, first half of fiscal '24, our revenue from Chinese OEMs and grew by greater than 40% year-over-year, and that is also reflected in our third quarter guidance. So it's a trend that's holding up as we look forward. And then from a road map perspective, as you look into our new premium tier launches coming up later this year, in addition to GenAI, we'll have our Oryon custom CPU core's coming in as well. So we're very excited about the road map.
Samik Chatterjee:
Got it. And for my follow-up, maybe Akash, this is more for you. I mean when you talked about the seasonality into the June quarter, handset seasonality is sort of the typical seasonality that you see and the aggregate results or revenue being better than seasonal is really being driven by autos here with the low double rate growth that you talked about.
Clearly, very strong sort of pipeline of wins, but how sustainable is this sort of pace of improvement quarter-over-quarter in terms of revenue. Just want to get a sense if this is when we start to see more sort of inflection in auto revenues given the strong pipeline you have and that drives better seasonal results going forward. even into the September quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. From an automotive perspective, as you know, we've given out a target of greater than $4 billion revenue in fiscal '26. And what you're seeing is really our design win pipeline materializing into revenue on our way to that number. And so that's the framework as to how I think about it.
Two key kind of data points on our design win pipeline. So as you'll recall, the last number we had given was $30 billion in September -- about 18 months ago, September '22. The updated number that we just provided is $45 billion of design wins. So obviously, a very significant increase. And of note, within that, approximately 1/3 is driven by ADAS. So we're seeing tremendous success now in ADAS and that's adding to our design win pipeline.
Operator:
Our next question is from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
T. Michael Walkley:
And maybe just building off the 40% increase in shipments to the Chinese OEMs holding through the June quarter guidance. just based on your expanding on device AI portfolio, is this level of demand sustainable into the back half of the calendar year? Or asked another way, do you expect the smartphone market to have kind of normal seasonal trends after the June quarter dip?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So as you'll recall, Mike, we had said earlier that we expect the third quarter to be the low quarter from a financial perspective, just given the seasonality of our business. That still holds true. So as we go from third to fourth quarter and then into fiscal first quarter, which is the December quarter, we expect growth as new launches of phones happen across all major OEMs.
And as I said earlier, we're going to have the launch of our Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 chip as well, and we're extremely excited about what that chip does and the launches that will come through that chip later in the year. Specifically, as you think about fourth quarter, we expect the EPS growth from third to fourth quarter to be consistent with fiscal '23, and then we'll grow beyond that into the December quarter.
T. Michael Walkley:
Great. That's very helpful. And maybe just for a quick follow-up on the IoT business. It sounds like March is the bottom, as you laid out. Can you maybe update us on the 3 segments, just what you're seeing in terms of the inventory correction?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So Mike, we had talked about December fiscal first quarter as the bottom quarter. We grew from that into March by 9% sequential growth. which was better than our expectations. And then now we're guiding low to mid-single-digit growth into the September quarter. So it's -- as we had outlined at the beginning of the year, we would see improvement through the year, and that trend is holding, and we expect it to hold in the fourth fiscal quarter as well. In terms of different parts within IoT, consumer is more aligned with phones.
So we've seen that recover faster. And then the industrial networking is consistent with what our peers are seeing within those industries and the recovery time line is aligned with that. If you kind of step back and think about our business there, we're pretty excited about new products that are coming out. So Cristiano talked about the PC set of products coming out later this year, device launch coming out later this year. But then in addition to that, we also have new products in industrial and WiFi 7 that will drive growth into this IoT segment as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
For my first question, just on the PC outlook, it does sound like devices are going to be available for purchase in the back half. So like how much PC is actually in the Q3 outlook? And what should we expect for the PC in the numbers like into the second half and beyond, like when does PC actually get big enough for us to see it?
Cristiano Amon:
Stacy, thanks for the question. We have a lot of product momentum right now and especially with all the launches, I would encourage everybody to go watch the Microsoft Build event, especially or what is happening with on device AI. There's a lot of product momentum and launches. As those devices started ramp up in volume. And since a lot of them are going to be back to school, it's going to be more of a fiscal '25 event in terms of being material within the IoT segment. Anything you'd like to add, Akash?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Just maybe in our June quarter guidance, there isn't material PC volume forecasted in our numbers.
Cristiano Amon:
One thing we're going to do -- sorry, just real quick. One thing we're going to do, like we provide an update on auto this quarter. We're going to provide a more detailed update next quarter on PC, especially as we're going to have those devices are launched.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. That's very helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about Huawei revenues. So in the Q, it says that you're not expecting any further product revenue from Huawei beyond the end of the calendar year. So I know it's only low end 4G that's left, but like how big is that now in the numbers in the end? How much of that will be going away into the calendar year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So Stacy, if you look at Huawei, as you've seen, they have launched multiple tiers of 5G devices already with their own chips. And clearly, we don't participate in those devices. What we are shipping at this point is the license that we have is for 4G chips. And as you rightly pointed out, it's at the low end of the spectrum. What we outlined in the Q is since the devices will eventually transition all to 5G, we don't expect any revenue from Huawei product business in '25.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.
Christopher Caso:
Question is on QTL. And it sounds like that you're starting to see some degree of improvement particularly among the China OEMs in the QCT business. But that has thus far hasn't translated to the QTL business. Can you talk about sort of the lag between the recovery in those segments and what your level of optimism or not is -- for sort of breaking out of this range in the QTL business. .
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So as you know, well, QTL business is really driven by the size of the market. And there is a cap on the total ASPs, up to which the royalty rate -- the percent royalty rate applies. So as we have seen the benefit on the QCT side is a lot driven by more units at the premium tier, especially above $400 in price. It does not -- it's not something that benefits the QTL business directly, the way the royalty program is structured. So that's the disconnect between the 2.
Christopher Caso:
Got it. That's helpful. As a follow-up, with regard to the AI handsets, a lot of the questions that we receive on this is, sort of why? And what are the applications, what are the reasons for a consumer to upgrade their handsets to AI. Cristiano, you talked about the developer hub that you're running, perhaps that gives you some insight into what the developers are doing, what's going on in the pipeline that will drive these AI handset sales?
Cristiano Amon:
Look, it's a great question. And I want to step back and say, in general, I think AI is going to benefit all the devices. I think AI when extends to running on device besides the benefit of working alongside the cloud. They have completely new use cases, privacy, security, latency, costs, personalization, et cetera. Here's how you should look into this. in the same way that when the smartphone started, you have a handful of apps that eventually grew to thousands and hundreds of thousands of apps, and that was really the user experience.
I think we're in the very early stage. And you're starting to see some of those use cases and you have exactly that moment. Some of the phones have 10 apps and they're growing. And one of the reasons we have the AI hub because this is a new, I think, moment for the industry. it works a little bit different. It's different than how you think about the traditional app store. You have many models, many in the open source models, They can run on a device and they can be attached or built into any application. So I think we're starting to see is a lot of developer interest. As we said in the prepared remarks, we have over 100 different models, from -- models from OpenAI to Llama 3 and many, they're quantize and optimized to the NPU when they are optimized using the tool, they run 4x faster than the model without optimization. And those models and those use cases started to be implemented in apps, whether it's an image or associated with a camera, it's associated with language. So we're in the beginning of that transition. We really like what we see because it's really creating a reason for people to buy a new device, it's going to be the same on PC. It's going to be the same as they come to cars as well and in industrial. So it's an exciting tailwind, I think, for our strategy of actually driving computing and connectivity at the edge.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
Timothy Arcuri:
I wanted to ask about the mix of the business. And as you said, Akash, China is holding up quite well. It's up 40% year-over-year in the fiscal first half. But it's within shouting distance of kind of where it peaked on a quarterly basis back in fiscal '22 when they were obviously over building at that time. So can you talk a little bit about what's happening there? How much of the year-over-year growth is units versus pricing?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Thanks, Tim. It's -- as we said earlier, it's really the biggest benefit we are seeing is the mix being stronger. And as you know, we are competitive positioning is stronger at the higher tiers, and so that's helping us. The second is, when you look at generation over generation, the chips, especially at the premium tier are getting more capable as more -- not just GenAI, but other additional capabilities are being integrated into the chips and the strong competition between the OEMs. So there's demand for those capabilities.
So we're seeing that come through as well. And it's really a combination of those things that is driving strength versus a unit upside. The unit size we are seeing is very much aligned with the market forecast, which says flat market versus last year.
Timothy Arcuri:
Got it. Okay. And then just as a quick follow-up. How sustainable are these RF wins that you've obviously gotten for this upcoming phone? Should we consider that as kind of part of the modem. So when the modem goes away, the RF wins also go away?
Akash Palkhiwala:
So of course, we'll not talk about any specific customer here, but I think I'd go back to the very first question that Cristiano answered. The key thing for us is the modem-RF architecture and how when we develop the end-to-end together, it creates an advantage for us in terms of performance, in terms of time to market for our customers as well. And that's a sustainable advantage that will stay going forward for us.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
When I look at your numbers, you bid the numbers mainly on handsets. It's both for QTL and QCT, of course. And I'm trying to understand how much of the outperformance is just China versus the rest of the world. So when you look at the rest of the world, what were the trends when it comes to your QCT shipments and QTL? And then within China, where are we in the recovery cycle, right? There is ongoing growth, but there is -- what we are seeing now in the first half of the year is mainly recovery from last year. So are you now at normal levels? And from here, it should trend normally based on demand? Or are we still recovering from the low of last year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So a couple of comments. First is on the overall picture across OEMs. So China saw a very significant benefit, but we had strength across other parts of the Android ecosystem as well. And so it's not something that was isolated to 1 or 2 OEMs. It was a broad trend that is just represented of the overall market and the mix shift that we discussed in the overall market.
On your second question, as we think about our strength in handsets, we are very optimistic that as we go forward, this is a trend that holds forward. This is not about inventory. As I said earlier, the units are actually aligned with the size of the market and the trends are really driven by mix and increased content.
Tal Liani:
Got it. Okay. Second question, just on the AI. I don't know if it's possible to quantify at all. But if you look at the non-AI QCT contribution versus an AI QCT contribution, when AI is included in the mix, is there a number where it comes to the increase in content per phone. Does it mean that the semiconductor there is going to be more expensive, higher price for you? So even if the market doesn't grow, can you grow just by the market shifting to AI? That's theoretical, but I'm trying to isolate the impact of AI.
Cristiano Amon:
A lot of people who [indiscernible]. But let me try to give you maybe an answer to help explain this. In first step, a lot of the increased content in ASP on QCT chipsets, including premium has been driven by the compute part. And it's more performance on the compute, CPU, GPU, the NPU.
Second, the NPU has been the largest area of silicon growth in those chips. So generation over generation, one of the largest improvements has been the NPU for AI, and AI is driving a lot of silicon content in those devices because the expected computational capability to run those models. The benefit financially I think it's going to come probably in the way that you're starting to see the beginning of it right now, which improves the mix. Users want to buy a more capable phone that can run AI. So it drives the market towards a richer mix of higher improvement here, share gains and then an upgrade cycle as people want to buy a new phone. That's how we should think about it in phones. PC is a little different. As we enter the PC, I think the AI and the ability to run on device AI better than any of our peers on a laptop, I think it's going to be a tailwind to the capability. Car, it builds more value on top of the platforms that were -- that are being commercialized and design win with the increase of the pipeline, especially in many of those platforms, we can do a softer upgrade to be able to run GenAI on those vehicles. So I think that's how this is going to materialize for Qualcomm. The last part of my answer is industrial, which is a new area that we're trying to upgrade to higher performance from microcontrollers to high-performance computing connectivity. I think Edge AI is proving to be a key attribute of this market going forward.
Tal Liani:
Our final question is from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Christopher Muse:
I guess I was hoping you could speak to QCT gross margins. They impressively held flat despite revenues down 5%. And I guess the real question here is not just how you did it this quarter, but how should we be thinking about as you bring on non-handset revenues to the model, what incremental gross margins might look like for QCT, particularly as we think about the AI PC and IoT as well as auto, given that growing backlog.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thanks C.J., yes, I think the first couple of quarters of this fiscal year, we've seen -- definitely seen strength in margin, and it's driven by the return mix that we've discussed on the call. What we're guiding for the third quarter is a sequential decline, again, reflecting kind of lack of flagship launches in the quarter. No change to what we've said on gross margins before. We've given a range, and we've been operating at the high end of the range, but no kind of fundamentally change on the framework of it going forward.
Christopher Muse:
Great. As a quick follow-up, on the auto side, you talked about the higher reiterated the $4 billion plus. Should we be thinking about kind of amortizing that 26-plus percent growth equally into fiscal '25-'26? Or might that come in sooner with faster growth.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So I mean, obviously, we are not kind of guiding quarters that far out at this point. But if you kind of take the current run rate and extend it forward towards the $4 billion target, kind of generally slope x -- slope growth increase between the 2 data points is a reasonable way of thinking about it.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Just a few questions, I think we're incredibly pleased with our technology and product road map evolution. And we're really looking forward to our next-generation PCs with Snapdragon as I said during the call, I encourage everyone to look at the announcement from Microsoft Build and how that's going to drive much more AI into the Qualcomm platform.
And I was just going to leave you all with a thought. One great things about the execution of the company. Every time we enter a new market or we set ourselves to go to a new market, and we end up building a very strong position. We went from mobile to RF front-end, we became #1. Same thing when we went to WiFi. Automotive, it was something that we had ambition to build as part of the diversification. I think we're quickly becoming the industry partner of choice. We are -- believe that there is a long-term opportunity with virtual reality, augmented reality. And now we have the absolute majority of the designs. And with PC, we clearly build the leading platform, and we have the product momentum that we hopefully will translate in the financial in the coming year. So I just wanted to state that we feel good about the company technology capabilities and how we're driving growth and diversification for shareholders. Thank you very much for your support. Thank you to all our employees, and I'm looking forward to talking to you in the next call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, January 31, 2024. Playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13743224. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Christian Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that have [Technical Difficulty] on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In fiscal Q1, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $9.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.75 above the high end of our guidance. Revenues from our chipset business of $8.4 billion reflect healthy Android demand and continued strong momentum in automotive. Licensing business revenues were $1.5 billion. We're pleased with these results, and I will now share some key highlights from the business. In handsets, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 mobile platform is setting a new standard for on-device gen AI experiences for premium smartphones and powers all through flagship Android devices launched and launching this fiscal year. Notably, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 mobile platform for Galaxy is featured in the recently announced Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra globally, in addition to the GalaxS24 and S24 Plus in multiple regions. The GalaxS24-Series includes on-device AI features such as live translate, interpreter, chat assist, nitography and more. This marks the beginning of how gen AI will evolve the overall smartphone experience and highlights the significant opportunity for Snapdragon platforms. We're also announcing that we extended a multiyear agreement with Samsung relating to Snapdragon platforms for flagship Galaxy smartphone launches starting in 2024. The extended agreement demonstrates the value of Snapdragon 8, our technology leadership and our successful long-term strategic partnership with Samsung. In the quarter, we also announced the Snapdragon 7 Gen 3 mobile platform, which brings leading gen AI capabilities to high-tier Android smartphones and is a category leader in both experiences and performance. In our QTL business, we're pleased to share that we recently extended several key license agreements. First, Apple exercised its unilateral option to extend its global patent license agreement for an additional two years, taking the existing agreement through to March 2027; second, we have renewed long-term agreements with two significant Chinese smartphone OEMs. In addition, we continue to negotiate new agreements or renewals with other key licensees and OEMs, including some whose current agreements are set to expire in early fiscal 2025. Automotive continues to be an important pillar of our growth and diversification strategy. Notably, 75 new models launched commercially in 2023 were for technologies, highlighting Qualcomm's grown scale in automotive and execution of our design wins. Earlier this month at CES, we announced our collaboration with Bosch to have our Snapdragon Ride Flex SoC power their new central vehicle computer. As a reminder, Snapdragon Ride Flex enables the fusion of infotainment in ADAS functionalities on a single SoC enabling automakers to realize a unified central-compute and software-defined vehicle architecture that scales across tiers. Additionally, we demonstrated digital cockpits connected services and advanced driver systems enabled by gen AI models running locally on the Snapdragon platform. This new capabilities can be enabled on a number of existing designs via a softer upgrade. This represents significant new opportunities for Qualcomm and our partners. In PCs, we're driving towards the launch of Snapdragon X Elite in mid-2024 and are pleased that our design win traction continues to increase since the platform was announced last October. We expect Snapdragon X Elite to set the industry benchmark for on-device gen AI and copilot experiences in addition to leading performance and battery life for next-generation Windows PCs. We recently expanded our mixed reality solutions with the announcement of the Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 2. Our new platform supports 4.3k per eye resolution and 90 frames per second in 12 or more concurrent cameras to deliver crisp immersive mixed reality and virtual reality experiences. We are proud to partner with Samsung and Google to provide leading XR experiences to Galaxy users by utilizing Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 2. In edge networking, we announced the Snapdragon X35 5G Modern-RF system, the world's first commercial release 17 5G RedCap solution. The Snapdragon X35 brings a new class of purpose-built 5G for Internet of Things devices. Devices powered by Snapdragon X35 are expected to launch by the first half of 2024. We continue to believe that industrial edge devices with connectivity, high-performance computing and on device AI will become one of our largest addressable opportunities fueled by the secular trends of digital transformation. As such, we're accelerating our investments in solutions, ecosystem and broad channel enablement to position ourselves for growth while we navigate the industry-wide inventory draw down. One key area of focus is to enable our customers to unlock the potential of gen AI at the enterprise using our chipset solutions. As an example, Zebra Technologies and Toshiba recently demonstrated on-device gen AI capabilities for enterprise workflows and inventory management at retail self-checkout, respectively. Additionally, Honeywell showcased a Qualcomm-powered edge AI box for warehouse applications. As we complete the first quarter of fiscal '24, ahead of our expectations, I'm very optimistic about Qualcomm's trajectory and the opportunities ahead. The fundamentals of our growth drivers remain unchanged, our diversification strategy is working, and we're making significant progress across mobile, automotive, computing, XR, edge networking, industrial IoT and more. At the upcoming Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, we will provide an update on our seller modem and connectivity leadership as well as on our overall scale of Snapdragon gen AI. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with our first fiscal quarter earnings. We are pleased to announce strong non-GAAP results above the high end of guidance with revenues of $9.9 billion and EPS of $2.75. QTL revenues of $1.5 billion and EBT margin of 74% were at the high end of guidance, reflecting slightly higher handset units. QCT delivered revenues of $8.4 billion and EBT margin of 31%, both above the high end of guidance, reflecting strength in handsets and automotive revenues. QCT EBT margin includes the benefit of revenue scale, stronger product mix and operating discipline. Handset revenues of $6.7 billion were higher than our prior expectations primarily due to the increased demand driven by the acceleration of Android flagship launches with our Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 mobile platform. Notably, our Android handset revenues from Chinese OEMs exceeded our expectations of greater than 35% sequential growth. IoT revenues of $1.1 billion reflect the industry-wide challenges we've previously outlined. We achieved record automotive revenues of $598 million which grew by 12% sequentially, reflecting the increased content in new vehicle launches with our Snapdragon digital chassis platform. Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased 5% sequentially to $2.1 billion and included the benefit of accelerated implementation of cost actions that we had previously outlined for the first half of fiscal '24. Lastly, we returned $1.7 billion to stockholders during the quarter, including $784 million in stock repurchases and $895 million in dividends. Before turning to second fiscal quarter guidance, I'll update you on global 3G, 4G, 5G handset units. We estimate that global units declined by mid-single digit percentage in calendar '23 relative to calendar '22, an improvement from our prior expectations due to the recent stabilization in demand. For calendar '24, we estimate that global handset units will be flat to slightly up on a year-over-year basis. This estimate includes expected growth of high-single digit to low double-digit percentage in 5G handsets. Turning to guidance for the second fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $8.9 billion to $9.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.20 to $2.40. The sequential decline in revenues and non-GAAP EPS relative to the first fiscal quarter will be driven by seasonality for a modem only handset customer in both QTL and QCT. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion and EBT margins of 69% to 73%. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7.6 billion to $8.2 billion and EBT margins of 27% to 29%. For QCT handset revenues coming off strong performance in the first fiscal quarter, we anticipate Android revenues will be approximately flat quarter-over-quarter. On a sequential basis, we expect QCT IoT revenues to grow by mid to high-single digit percentage with QCT automotive revenues slightly down, consistent with the trend in the prior year. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $2.2 billion. This reflects typical calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs. In closing, we're very pleased to start our fiscal year with strong execution and financial performance. In QTL, as Cristiano outlined, we are pleased to have extended several key license agreements. We do not expect any material change in QTL licensing revenue run rate as a result of these extensions. In QCT, our technology differentiation will accelerate with our on-device gen AI leadership and introduction of our custom Qualcomm Orion CPU. We also remain well positioned to execute on our diversification strategy by extending our technology portfolio to deliver industry-leading products across automotive and IoT. This concludes our prepared remarks. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the results here. Maybe if I can start with AI and particularly the launch of the Samsung S24. Now you have some incremental sort of experience in terms of devices launching in the market and the performance and consumer reception you're seeing to that. So I know you outlined adoption of 3G, 4G, but any way of giving us some flavor of what you're thinking in terms of adoption of these AI devices or AI on edge in terms of the smartphone market? How similar or different will that curve look like relative to 5G adoption? And any insights from the sort of pipeline you're working on will be helpful for us? Thank you and I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Hello, Samik. Thanks for the question. This is Cristiano. Look, it's early, but I think it's -- we're definitely excited about what we see in the beginning. It's not only unique to the GalasxS24, that has a number of now use cases running gen AI on the device. I mentioned a few of my prepared remarks like translation and you have a much more effective assistance in a number of different applications. We're going to see productivity coming. But we'll also see that happening with some of our other customers from China, launching a number of models. So I think we have a large number now of models being ported into our hardware for gen AI. I think we're starting to see the beginning of new use cases. Reviews have been positive, and we are happy with we've seen the results following the launch. I think we need to monitor the situation. But eventually, at a minimum, is going to have a favorable impact on mix, which is a trend that we continue to see premium and high tier with more computing power -- is the fastest-growing segment in the handset market.
Samik Chatterjee:
Yeah. Okay. Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up, the -- and the Android OBX customers of the Chinese OEMs you work with, they exceeded your expectation in the fiscal first quarter -- but as you're looking to the second quarter, you're guiding to a more flattish trajectory here? I know the industry has sort of been looking at inventory refill from those customers as well, driving some of the momentum. So just wondering if you can give us an update in terms of what you’re seeing from those customers? And if at all, Huawei and their reemerges in the market is starting to have an impact in terms of volume or market share for these customers as well in the context of your flat guide for them for quarter-over-quarter? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Samik, it’s Akash. As we have said previously, as we entered fiscal ‘24, our view was that Android channel inventory had largely normalized. And so as we go through the year, we typically see normal bill bleed cycle around handset launches. So that’s kind of the phase we are in from our perspective. In the first quarter, what we saw was higher demand due to the acceleration of Android flagship launches with our new chip, Snapdragon 8 Gen 3. And we saw very strong demand across all the major Android OEMs. And so happy, of course, with that traction and that momentum carries over to the second quarter as well. And that’s what you’re seeing both in our results and our guide going forward. In terms of your comment on Huawei, really what we’ve seen since Huawei 5G launch is that the premium tier TAM in China has expanded. And so we’re continuing to see strong demand from our customers post that launch.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you very much, guys. I guess for my first question, Cristiano, I was fit to hear, I guess, the formal announcement of an extension with your partnership with Samsung. And you mentioned, I think, in your prepared script that it started with 2024 devices, but I assume it's longer than that. So maybe you could give us a little context as to the links and any details you can share on the new agreement. You guys obviously have your new custom CPUs coming into the Snapdragon road map and some expanded MPU product as well. So we see kind of what the split is of share in the flagship at Samsung currently, but I'm just trying to understand a bit more about what this means for on a go-forward basis. Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question, Matt. The agreement that we announced at this earnings call, it is a multiyear agreement. We're not disclosing the duration, but there are several years into that agreement. And I think your observation is correct. I think it starts in 2024. I think as you look at the launch of GalaxS24 is a good proxy on how we should think about the agreement between us and Samsung. But most important is the thing that you outlined. Our road map is getting stronger over time, especially with our custom CPU coming to mobile, and we're aiming to have the leadership position in the mobile performance on CPU. And our NPU continue to expand as we -- as I mentioned before, we're just at the beginning of the gen AI transition. I think in summary, we're very pleased our relationship with Samsung, and it's a very long-term relationship with this customer.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thank you for that. I guess my follow-up question is one for Akash, first of all, Akash, congratulations on the new COO hat. Well done. But my question is around margins. And I noticed that even with the IoT business down dramatically, there was some improvement in sequential gross margin in the quarter and back above 30% in QCT operating margins. So maybe you could discuss some of the moving parts with margins in the business because it was a -- pleasantly a bit better than I had modeled, and I kind of want to see what might be sustainable or what actions you took on a go-forward basis on both the gross and the operating side. Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Matt, and thanks for our wishes. I'm looking forward in this new role to working with Cristiano and the executive team to kind of deliver on our long-term priorities. And of course, I'll continue to remain committed to my CFO role, working closely with the team here and maintaining consistency and transparency and looking forward to seeing a lot of you at upcoming events. On the margin side, what you saw in the first quarter is really the fact that our gross margins were stronger because the mix was richer (ph). We had a higher set of premium tier launches coming through and that impacted our volume, and we benefited from that mix -- richer mix. And if you look at our second quarter guide, we are guiding largely in line with how our first quarter came in. So that was obviously great to see. From an operating margin perspective, it's -- in addition to the strength in the gross margins obviously, the revenue scale and the actions we took on the OpEx also benefited. And so we were happy to -- extremely happy to deliver 31% operating margin in QCT and really focused on delivering to the long-term target we’ve outlined to the investors.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on extending some of the licensing deals. I guess, just want to jump a little bit into the IoT business, the three segments, I assume, consumer is still weaker. But can you update us kind of how the inventory bleed is trending for the three business within IoT? And then within that question too, just on the recovery of IoT, share with us the X Elite ramp and how material this might become for IoT, say, in the next one to two years?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Maybe I'll address the first part and then Cristiano can talk through the X Elite question. From an IoT entry perspective, what we have seen is stabilization really on the consumer side. As you know, we were one of the first to call out the weakness in IoT, and now we're seeing it go through both on the industrial and the edge networking side. And consistent with our previous comments, we think the first quarter was the bottom for our IoT revenue stream. We're guiding second quarter up mid to high-single digits. Second half of the year -- fiscal year, as we see the inventory channel kind of normalizing and end markets kind of benefiting from that -- we're excited about what our product portfolio can bring and overall, lots of opportunities for us. So over -- in my mind, there's significant uncertainty, but we are cautiously optimistic, and I think we have a great product portfolio as we look forward.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, your question about X Elite and in PC. It's too early. We're tracking to the launch of products with this chipset tied with the next version of Microsoft Windows that has a lot of the Windows AI capabilities. We're still maintaining the same date, which is driven by Windows, which is mid-2024, getting ready for back-to-school, what we're excited about it is since we announced that Tech Summit showing the performance of the product and the AI capabilities, design traction continue to increase. So we had increased the number of designs since last quarter. and we continue to march forward towards the launch. We like that everybody is now talking about on-device AI on PC. That's where we started this journey with X Elite. And I think that proved to be a tailwind to the opportunity for us in PCs.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks. And maybe Cristiano, just a quick follow-on question. Just on the auto business, how should we think about the ramp of that business over the next one to two years? You've talked about a lot of design win activity and digital chassis ramping this year, but with ADAS coming into the model, how might that business ramp towards your target in 2026.
Cristiano Amon:
No, absolutely. Thank you for your question. Look, let me step back a little bit and say we're extremely pleased with our performance in auto, especially when you look at the overall market. Right now you can look at Qualcomm results with record revenues and very strong, I think, year-over-year growth. In 2023, in this year that just closed, we launched 75 models with our silicon with a significant improvement in silicon content as it relates to those immersive cockpit and in many cases, processing for safety. So we're very happy with the business. And I think the answer to your question is, we are on track to meet our target that we said on the Auto Investor Day of $4 billion and $9 billion, respectively, I think for ‘26 at the end of the decade. So we’re on track for that. And the next quarter, we’re going to give you an update on the design win pipeline that continues to grow.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So given that you've got Android, Android was pretty strong in December, and it's flat into March. How are you thinking about June seasonality given all these trends and moving pieces? I know it's usually down a bit for March, but I guess in the current what are you thinking about June seasonality.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Stacy, it's Akash. No change to the shape of the year comments that we made last time. Following second quarter, we do expect third quarter to be the lowest quarter. It's one of the quarters where we do not have any significant flagship launches. And as a result, you kind of see a decline in third quarter then growth back into the fourth quarter. And it's -- when you look at second to third quarter, we expect a trend consistent with the last two years. First half, obviously benefited from this acceleration of launches for Android and pretty happy with that. And I think it sets us up as we look forward in terms of both content growth with our strong road map and just positioning overall in the handset market.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. Thank you. And so my follow-up, I just want to ask about Huawei -- was Huawei still completely out of the model in December? And is it out of the model in the March guidance?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So as we’ve said in the past, Stacy, we do have a 4G license to ship Huawei and so we’ve continued to ship based on customer demand. But as you’re aware, they have launched a 5G device with their own chip, and that’s, I think, the priority going forward.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. I guess just a question on QTL and coming from your comments about the global handset market, it sounds like you're a little more optimistic on the 5G market on the year, QTL revenue has been kind of stuck in this range because of where handset units have been. Do you -- I guess what's the outlook for QTL going forward in the context of what you're expecting for the handset market overall.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So as we outlined for our handset market, when you look at calendar '24, overall market, we expect it to be flat to slightly up. But within that, 5G, obviously, is our target market, especially for the chip business, we expect that to be high-single digit to low double-digit up on a year-over-year basis. Within QTL, I will stick with the guidance we have given before. We think there's a scale to the business that's aligned with the handset market and the 2 will move in line. And then on the extensions of the license, I just wanted to make sure that I said this in my prepared remarks, but just to confirm, as a result of the extension, we do not expect any material change in our QCT licensing revenue run rate. So it's consistent with the program. In the QTL licensing revenue run rate, it's consistent with the program.
Chris Caso:
Okay. That's helpful. As a follow-up, Cristiano, I wonder if you could speak to sort of the decision to reengage in custom cores with Orion and what outcome you expect that? I mean, it sounds like that's been one of the reasons or one of the things behind the renewal of the Samsung agreement. What sort of change in the market because Qualcomm did custom cores in the past? And what do you expect to get out of that in terms of market share and content and such?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Chris, for your question. Look, it's consistent, I think, with the strategy we outlined, I think, following the acquisition of Nuvia. In the past, Qualcomm has been designing now its own custom course. And I think the first instantiation of that was for PCs. Actually, if you remember, in the past, that was the key motivation as we embark on this journey to create a leading SoC for laptops for the Windows ecosystem. We needed to have the performance leadership and we needed to design our own CPU to deliver the results that we did with X Elite. Now we're taking that across the entire road map. Your observation is correct. As we take that into mobile next, we're seeing significant interest from our partners as it truly becomes a leadership position in the marketplace now across all course, not only graphics and AI but also CPU. And we’re not stopping there, following smartphone that’s going to go into our automotive business, and we’re excited about what the team has accomplished to date. Orion is really well positioned to be the leading CPU core in the industry.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. Can you talk about restocking in China? It looks like the China Android obviously, it was up a ton and it's being guided flat. Your peer was a bit cautious on this. Can you talk -- do you think you're shipping that to consumption? And do you think you're going to ship to consumption through the rest of the year? And then I had another question.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Tim, consistent with what I said earlier in the call, I think we were kind of largely at normalized inventory for Android entering the fiscal year. What you saw in the December quarter, at least for us, to a large extent was a build for the various premium tier launches that happened during the period. And so we do expect normal bill bleed cycles through the year as devices launch. But that's kind of the framework with which we are operating going forward.
Timothy Arcuri :
Got it. And then now that you have the modem for longer for this one flagship customer, one can envision a scenario where maybe you can leverage that into some new RF content that you have not had in the past. Is this a scenario? I mean, it seems like it could add $1 billion maybe. I mean you were sort of running to $4 billion a year in your RFFE business prior to stopping to tell us what that is. So it seems like that is something you could potentially leverage the reliance on your modem business? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, Tim. I’d say that’s a conversation, obviously, that we will talk to the customer about. It’s a part of our portfolio, and we’ll make it available if they’re interested.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi. Thanks for a couple of questions and Akash, congrats on the COO role. The first one is on the OpEx side of things. You guys did a great job in the calendar fourth quarter and you gave the guidance for the fiscal first or fiscal second quarter, how should we think about that for the remainder of the year, given your commentary on kind of doubling down on some of the opportunistic investments to diversify the company, new cores, etc.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, Ross. Thank you very much. From an OpEx perspective, really, the way we think about it is any hiring that we do will be very selective and focused on really acquiring new skills that are required for diversification. But other than that, we've gone through a reduction recently. We think we're at scale to a large extent, and we're committed to operating discipline.
Ross Seymore:
Great. And I guess for my follow-up, I noticed in the 10-Q, you had a new 10% customer, I think it was a 14% customer. I don't expect you to name who that is. But is that a reflection of the strong China demand that you talked about in the continuation of good future growth opportunities or was there any onetime aspect of that customer, whoever it may be popping up in the quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
I think the you framed it in your first theory is a reasonable way of thinking about it.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Tom O'Malley:
Thanks for taking the question. Just passing on my congratulations to Akash as well. I just wanted to ask on the ASP side for Android. You're obviously kind of characterizing the market that's flattish into March, kind of the bottom in June and then improving from there. But you benefited from some good mix in the beginning of the fiscal year here. Could you talk about what you would expect from a mix perspective as you go to the back half? Would you see the same kind of strength on the ASP side that you've kind of seen over the past year? That would be really helpful to understand. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So if you think about premium flagship launches for our OEMs, a lot of the launches happen in the holiday time frame just before the holidays going into Chinese New Year as well. And so you've seen a lot of those happen. We do have some significant launches through the middle of the year, but obviously, the next big launch goes into the holiday season, starting with Apple and then going into the Android launches. So that's a typical cadence. Now when -- just to confirm, just the premium tier we are talking about. Of course, there are other tiers and including the high tier, where we have very significant presence and that does drive a significant portion of our -- the launches that happened through the year and also our revenue base.
Tom O'Malley:
Helpful. And then just on the auto business, you've clearly seen some weaker data points just out of the ecosystem. Can you explain why your auto business may not be levered to some of like the ADAS areas where you've seen the particular weakness of late? And like when do those ADAS and win start layering on? Is that more of like a '25 story for you guys or '26. Just can you talk about the pipeline and when you see those more advanced wins kind of layering into the to the revenue stream? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. This is Cristiano. Look, the automotive story of Qualcomm is primarily driven by share gains as models with our silicon part of our pipeline started to materialize into revenue. And the way you should think about it, historically, a lot of the revenue was telematics, now you see the largest component been a lot of the fully immersive digital cockpits on the car. And we already have some revenue from ADAS processing. You see a lot of cars for example, in China with both ADAS and autonomy with our processor, you see some of our customers in the United States of our processor. And I think that continues to grow as we get towards our 2026 revenue target, you’re probably going to see very healthy components of all of those elements.
Tom O'Malley:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Thanks. I have two follow-ups on answers or questions you had before. The first one is Samsung. On one hand, there is a new contract. On the other hand, Samsung is going to use their own more in '24 versus '23. So net-net, are you expecting revenues of Samsung to go up or down in '24 versus '23? What are your expectations of share losses within -- can you frame it for us? And the second question is on the auto business. You had a phenomenal quarter. It's very different from the other auto companies, most of the other (ph) companies had weakness. What is the strength related to meaning is it share gain with certain customers? Is it new product or can you just put some color on the strength, the relative strength versus the others? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, Tal. Ut's Akash. So on this -- on Samsung and this is a conversation about the premium tier, I assume. In GS23, we did have global share. In the GS24 that just launched and consistent with what we said on the last quarter, we expect to have a majority share based on the model split between us and [indiscernible]. As Cristiano indicated in his prepared remarks, one of the benefits of the agreement that we did with them is it gives us predictability on our position within the premium tier going forward. And then from a content perspective, there's clearly content expansion happening. And this is really when you look at our premium tier road map, not just with gen AI coming in our custom CPU course coming in as well, but then also across other technologies. As consumers demand more capability, we see our content and our ASP both continue to grow. Switching over to your second question on automotive. You should really think -- the way to think about our automotive business is we're tied to the launch of new cars. Clearly, the industry is going through a transformation, digitization of cars, and we are right at the intersection of that transformation. We are we're benefiting our cars put in more infotainment content for experience within the car. More ADAS content comes into the car as well. And really, we get to benefit from all those intersection points in the car, and we're increasing the content as new cars launch. So that's the maybe a disconnect between some of our peers what they're seeing and what we're seeing. Stepping back, I mean, clearly, this is an industry that's going through some shorter-term dynamics, so we'll be closely monitoring it. But when you step back, our technology, our position, our products look really good, and we're excited about where we're going.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Just in closing, I'd just like to remind everyone, look, we're as I said, we're happy with the quarter. We see the android market stabilizing after we've been to '23. That was a year of correction. We like the transition of user experience with gen AI that could create an opportunity in mobile. This is one of those times for Qualcomm. They are both our Apple and Samsung revenue on the chip side or under contract. We're very happy about that. We continue to move towards stability of the QTL revenue stream with those new agreements. As you look at the growth opportunity, I think the auto results speak for itself. We're now in the IoT segment, really focus on the launch of X Elite. In the PC, we announced a new product for XR. And if you believe that, that market is finally going to get very large scale, we're well positioned with our partnership with Meta as well as Samsung and Google. And as IoT, especially industrial goes to the correction, we expect that to resume growth. So we're focused on what we can control, busy work with the growth and diversification of the company. And I want to say a big thank you for all of our partners and employees they help us get to this quarter. Thank you very much, and I talk to you all next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Qualcomm’s Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 1, 2023. Playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 137-41-657. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In fiscal Q4, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $8.7 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.02 above the high-end of our guidance. Revenues from our chipset business of $7.4 billion reflect a more stable Android handset environment. Licensing business revenues were $1.3 billion. During the quarter, we also made significant progress on our leading technology and product road maps while improving operational efficiency. We remain fully focused on our future growth and diversification opportunities. Let me now discuss key highlights from the business. As we enter the age of generative AI, we're seeing an unprecedented pace of innovation. On-device Gen AI is evolving in parallel with Gen AI in the cloud enabling entirely new use cases. It has the potential to change how we interact with our devices making the user experience more natural intuitive, relevant and personal with increased immediacy, privacy and security. We have quickly established Qualcomm as a leader in on-device Gen AI for smartphones, next generation laptops, XR and automotive, and we are well-positioned to benefit from this opportunity. We expect high performance on-device AI to become a requirement over the next few years, driving content, units, or both. Our Snapdragon platform is highly differentiated from its competitors. First, we significantly increased the AI processing performance in power efficiency of our best-in-class NPU, CPU and GPU. Second, we are collaborating with multiple partners in ecosystems to enable a host of consumer and productivity based AI models running natively on our platform. Third, we're enabling multibillion parameter Gen AI models to run continuously and concurrently for multiple use cases, including multimodal. For example, in the latest Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 smartphone platform, state-of-the-art large language models, such as Llama and [Vicuna] (ph) up to 10 billion parameters are running at up to 20 tokens per second. And large vision models such as stable diffusion can generate images from text in less than one second with ultra-low power consumption. As always running on-device Gen AI becomes pervasive we believe it will create one of the most significant changes in user experience similar to the transition from the feature phone to the smartphone and the introduction of the graphical user interface for PCs. Snapdragon will play a significant role in this transformation. We also reached an important milestone in our expansion into PCs with the announcement of our Snapdragon X Elite platform. It is the result of a relentless pursuit to create the ultimate intelligent computing experience and establish Snapdragon as the industry leader in performance and power efficiency. The Snapdragon X Elite includes our first implementation of the custom Oryon CPU, which exceeds the multi-threaded CPU performance of any x86 or ARM competitor in its class. It also matches the single-threaded CPU peak performance of the leading x86 CPU competitors at 70% less power. Additionally, our premium integrated Adreno GPU delivers up to two times faster performance than the competition at ISO power or matches competitor peak PC performance as 74% less power. Snapdragon X Elite also features our newest Hexagon NPU. With 45 tops of performance, the Hexagon NPU is capable of running Gen AI models with over 13 billion parameters on-device. In total AI performance of the Snapdragon X Elite across CPU, GPU and NPU is 75 tops, the highest in the industry. Microsoft is redefining the entire Windows experience with the AI Copilot and the Snapdragon X Elite is built from the ground up for this opportunity. We look forward to PCs powered by Snapdragon X Elite from leading OEMs starting mid 2024. The merging of physical and digital spaces remains a significant future opportunity for Qualcomm and we recently launched a Snapdragon AR1 platform, our first dedicated platform for smart glasses. AR1 Gen 1 was developed in close collaboration with Meta and powers the new Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. It features a dual ISP camera system for premium photos and videos as well as powerful on-device AI for image enhancement virtual assistance, real-time translation, visual search, and more. Together with Meta, we're developing next generation technologies to create the future of spatial computing. The AR1 Gen 1 along with a previously announced Snapdragon XR Gen 2 are a testament to the strength of this long standing partnership. Across the industry, Snapdragon remains the platform of choice for all leading VR, MR and AR designs. In networking, we continue to be a global Wi-Fi leader across enterprise and home networks as well as broadband gateways. Our Wi-Fi 7 solutions are seeing strong traction with more than 350 design wins across all categories to-date. We recently announced several new collaborations, including with Charter Communications in the U.S. and EE in the UK, both of which are preparing to roll out enhanced next generation Wi-Fi 7 connectivity to the residential and small and medium size business customers. We’re excited about the launch of our Fiber Gateway Platform which adds 10 gigabit passive optical network capabilities to our portfolio. With Fiber, in addition to 5G and Wi-Fi 7, we're now positioned to lead in next generation broadband solutions. Additionally, our unique service defined Wi-Fi technology signature feature introduced with our Wi-Fi platforms offers a unified data flow management architecture from cloud to device. It delivers orchestration, classification, scheduling, and insights to enable the end-to-end management of home networks in real-time optimizations across devices. In automotive, the digital transformation of the industry continues to bring new levels of computing, intelligence and cloud connectivity to the vehicle. These trends are driving new user experiences, advancements in driver assistance, autonomy, and safety. They also offer the potential for new revenue opportunities as vehicles gain the ability to evolve with over the air updates in digital services. The vehicle is becoming software defined and the Snapdragon Digital Chassis remain at the center of this transformation. We are pleased that our Digital Chassis solutions will bring advanced capabilities to the upcoming Cadillac ESCALADE IQ, which is planned for commercial production in 2024. The Cadillac ESCALADE IQ will be equipped with the Snapdragon Cockpit, Snapdragon Auto Connectivity and Snapdragon Ride platforms. Additionally, we're proud of our partnership with BMW for all vehicles as well as the upcoming Neue Klasse. We're also excited that the Snapdragon Digital Cockpit and Connectivity solutions now powered the new Mercedes Benz User Experience starting with the 2024 E-Class sedan. We recently expanded our Digital Chassis offering with the launch of two new platforms for two wheelers and other vehicle classes such as motorcycles, e-bikes, scooters and all-terrain vehicles. Our new platform design wins and launches with Gogoro Harley-Davidson and others are receiving positive feedback from the ecosystem on their ability to advance technology development and bring new user experiences to these vehicles. Finally, we announced a new long-term relationship with Amazon Web Services to enable automakers to integrate cloud technologies into their vehicle development lifecycle. The offering combines the Qualcomm Cloud AI 100 solution our Snapdragon Ride platforms as well as AWS breadth of services and capabilities. This will advance the future of software defined mobility and change how vehicles are designed and developed. In handsets, we announced our latest premium mobile platform the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, which delivers industry leading performance and extraordinary experiences to consumers for the upcoming Gen AI era. Some key features include intelligent capture with the world's smartest AI powered camera, console level gaming with ray tracing with global illumination, studio quality audio, the world's first XSPAN technology, best-in-class connectivity, and the world's fastest on-device AI processing on a smartphone. We look forward to flagship device launches powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 by global OEMs and smartphone brands, including Xiaomi, Honor, OPPO, Vivo, OnePlus, Sony, and More. In addition, we recently entered into an agreement with Apple to apply Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF systems for smartphone launches in 2024, 2025 and 2026. This agreement reinforces our track record of sustained leadership across 5G technologies and products. We are proud of our ongoing relationship with Apple. As we look forward, our technology roadmap has never been stronger and the fundamentals of Qualcomm's growth drivers remain unchanged with significant opportunities in the coming years. We continue to focus on stockholder returns in executing on our ongoing diversification opportunities while maintaining operating discipline. I would now like to turn the call over to, Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon everyone. I'll start with our fourth fiscal quarter results. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $8.7 billion and EPS of $2.02, which is above the high-end of our guidance. QTL revenues of $1.3 billion and EBT margin of 66% were in-line with our expectations. QCT delivered revenues of $7.4 billion, an EBT margin of 26%, which were near the high-end of our guidance on strength in handset and automotive revenues. Handset revenues of $5.5 billion increased 4% sequentially and were higher than expectations due to the benefit from the early stages of recovery in Android demand. IoT revenues of $1.4 billion were down 7% quarter-over-quarter, including softness in industrial IoT demand. Automotive revenue grew 23% sequentially to $535 million, making this the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit percentage growth on a year-over-year basis. Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased 1% sequentially to $2.2 billion. Before turning to guidance, I'll summarize our fiscal ‘23 results. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $36 billion and EPS of $8.43 despite the challenging macro environment. We remain focused on our strategic priorities of extending technology leadership and driving revenue diversification, while taking significant steps to improve our operating efficiency. We continued our strong momentum in automotive and delivered record revenues of $1.9 billion, with year-over-year growth of 24%, progressing towards our target of greater than $4 billion in revenue by 2026. We exceeded our fiscal '23 cost action target, reducing non-GAAP operating expenses by 7% relative to the fiscal '22 exit rate, executing on our commitment to manage the cost structure given the current operating environment. Our business continues to generate strong free cash flow, with a record of $9.8 billion. Lastly, our balance sheet remains strong with $11.3 billion in cash and marketable securities. Now, turning to guidance. We are seeing early signs of stabilization in demand for global 3G, 4G, 5G handsets. We now estimate that calendar ‘23 handsets will be down mid-to-high single-digit percentage relative to calendar ‘22, an improvement from our prior expectations. In the first fiscal quarter of ‘24, we are forecasting revenues of $9.1 billion to $9.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 to $2.45. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and EBT margins of 70% to 74% with sequential growth driven by an increase in global handset units for the holiday season. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion and EBT margins of 26% to 28%. On a sequential basis, we estimate double-digit percentage growth for QCT handset revenues and anticipate both IoT and automotive revenues to decline consistent with last year. QCT handset revenue forecast includes the benefit of normalization of Android channel inventory and higher demand due to the acceleration of flagship launches with our newly announced Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 mobile platform. Notably QCT handset forecast include sequential revenue growth of greater than 35% from Chinese OEMs. QCT IoT revenue forecast reflects the industry-wide cyclical factors we've previously discussed, including lower demand and elevated channel inventory. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be flat relative to the fourth fiscal quarter. As we enter fiscal ‘24, we are encouraged by the early signs of demand stabilization in handsets and our strong competitive positioning across revenue streams. Key industry trends such as heterogeneous mobile computing and on-device generative AI provide a strong foundation for content growth and expansion to new device categories, driving growth opportunities for Qualcomm. In closing, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication and for remaining focused on execution and continuing to deliver industry leading products. This concludes our prepared remarks, back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Yes. Hi. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions and, congrats on the results here. I guess if I can start with Cristiano your comments about on-device AI becoming pervasive in a few years, I think investors are largely looking for more sort of evidence and validation that this is going to be a key focus area for a lot of OEMs smartphones and other device OEM. So, as you look over the next sort of 12 to 18 months, what should investors look at in terms of more validation of either wins or revenues that you expect from the monetization of the trend, in relation to what investors can really look to as milestones to validate that this is actually going to be sort of playing out over the next three to four years. And I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you so much, Samik, for your question. For those that have not seen, I think, I would recommend to see the highlights of our Snapdragon Tech Summit that just happened a couple of weeks ago when we announced the results of our investments in Gen AI. I'll tell you Samik that on-device Gen AI, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, are evolving in parallel to the cloud. And it's going to have a significant impact in how you change the user experience. Just think about a simple use case as you're texting, every single test that you write could be an input to a model, and that could bring prediction of your behavior and bring other applications. We demonstrated a number of use cases. They're under development by many other OEMs. There are a number of different models from large language models to large visual models. One unique position of Qualcomm we have many of those models running natively on a platform. We're creating a model zoo for Snapdragon. And you saw announcements from Microsoft, from Meta, from what we're doing on Android, we're doing with our Chinese partners. And you're going to start to see those signs. Especially what flagship device is launching in ‘24, as you started to see those use cases changing photography, changing, messaging, changing scheduling, changing assistance, how you should think about this financially for us? You have the potential to create a new cycle for phones, and it will have an impact on increased silicon content. Just to put in perspective, we have significant increased the processing performance of our AI, processing in the device or NPU is going to have silicon content, is going to have an impact on mix, and it's going to have an impact on unit of all of it. And it's likely going to start as use cases get developed with flagships launching ‘24, but it could be very significant as you look at the next two to three years.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay. Got it. And for my follow-up, I guess, you're sounding a lot more positive around the recovery in the Android OEMs, sort of the smartphone market. I think investors at the same time are grappling with the potential sort of puts and takes, particularly when it comes to your primary or a large, Android customer Samsung using more in house solutions going forward. So, when we think about sort of, seasonality beyond the December quarter, particularly around the launch periods, how should we think about your market share with Samsung progressing and what impact does that have on relative to your typical seasonality from December to March? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Very good question. Let me unpack that question. Let's divide the conversation in two. I think the first part of the conversation, as we said in the prepared remarks, we're happy that the inventory dynamics that we have seen within the Android, business are largely behind us right now. And, one data point that we provided in a cautious, I think, remarks is sequentially from Q4 fiscal to our guide, we're seeing a total growth of revenue from Chinese OEMs, both in China and outside China of 35%. And I think that shows that our customers are in a great position. I think even facing new interests in the market. And, it's also strength of our road map and the stabilization of the market. The second question is about Samsung, look, we're happy with partnership with Samsung. There's the upcoming launch of the GS24. We expect to have the majority share. Our product is really great. I think as I said, we probably have one of the best product roadmaps in the history of the company, especially in the Gen AI processing capabilities. And the product is getting better. We were happy to talk about what we have done in PC with our new Oryon CPU. That CPU was coming to mobile especially in ‘25, and we expect even more, I think, evolution of Gen AI. So the roadmap gets better over time. Overall, we're positive about our relationship Samsung. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you very much guys. Good afternoon. I guess for my first question, Cristiano, I did pick up on the 35% growth sequentially with China OEMs. But you guys, the question I've been getting a ton is around Huawei and what they're doing. So, you guys called out, I think, last quarter that they were going to be getting some supply on seven nanometer from SMIC and being able to do some devices themselves. And you called out an impact to your revenue. But I think longer term into all of next calendar year, there's some expectation that they might get some more supply. Some of it from SMIC on seven, some of it from SMIC on 16. And that might be a unit headwind to some of your other OEM customers. Maybe you can sell into them as well on 4G. So, if you could unpack a little bit of what's going on with Huawei and how you see it impacting the market in China that would be helpful. And I have a follow up. Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you for the question, Matt. I think maybe separate and first, as we indicated in the last earnings call, I think we indicated that we don't have any more projection of selling our 4G, I think, SOCs to Huawei. And, going forward, we don't expect to have any significance, it's going to be a very small, I think, contribution from Huawei. I think the more interesting answer to your question, and that's the reason I provide the 35% data point, is as Huawei launched the device, we what we are seeing from our customers is continue, I think, growth from our customers on the Android side. We see a mix improvement of our customers moving towards flagship and, it's kind of reflected in our numbers. So it does not change, I think, the trajectory that we have with our Android customers in China. And there is a possibility that I think that Huawei is upgrading their existing customer base. You know there was a data point, there's about a 100 million Huawei former customers with a four to five year old Huawei phone, and that could have an impact on increasing the TAM.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you, Cristiano. I guess as my follow-up, it was very impressive, some of the products that you put forward for the PC market at the latest Snapdragon Summit, I think you were right to call out the performance levels, the power levels and the much, much different support from Microsoft. I guess what I'm trying to understand a little bit more is support for ARM PCs, whether in gaming or in enterprise use cases, by other ISVs. So folks that might need to use other end applications that wouldn't be touched directly by Qualcomm or directly by Microsoft. Cristiano could you give us a little bit of an update there? What are you seeing from the ISV ecosystem and in what parts of the PC market do you see potential momentum for your products? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, there's a lot to unpack here. I can speak about this for a whole day, but I'm going to try to be succinct. First thing, we're incredibly proud of the accomplishments of our team. I think, Snapdragon X Elite took the leadership position in this space for any mobile computing device. We're incredibly happy with performance of the new CPU, both single-threaded and multi-threaded performance. But not only that, I think it's important to highlight the AI processing capability because that's key to answer your question. If you look, versus announcements on NPU or some of the other ARM competitors. We had 45 tops performance on the NPU with a total tops performance on X Elite of 75. And that aligns with the transition that Microsoft is making towards a Windows AI future, especially the new services with the Copilot and everything we're doing with Microsoft, on-device working together on-device AI with the cloud and with the Azure endpoint. We're excited about that. And you should start thinking about the PC business, almost like the auto business. We're focused on next generation PCs, not existing PCs, and as those windows started to switch to Windows AI and our platform launches. it create opportunity for us to start gaining scale. Specifically to your question. Microsoft has been very active together with us of bringing a lot of applications natively through the platform. I think we had, a significant progress made across consumer in commercial applications. You continue to see announcements and Windows 11 can also run every, x86, 32, and 64 bit to the Microsoft emulation. We also made significant strides in the emulation performance. So, I think Snapdragon X Elite represents the results of this Microsoft Qualcomm collaboration. And I'll finish the answer by saying, if you look at the announcements of other computing companies talking about having an ARM based PC preprocessor, that is validation that that's our TAM now. It is going to be part of the expansion of TAM for Qualcomm. We're a new player and we look at this as a growth opportunity. We’re excited about it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks. A quick question for Akash. I think a strong cost execution coming in ahead of plan for exiting the fiscal ‘23, and flattish into the start to Q1. How should we think about OpEx level plan for the year? Is there more areas to cut or you think your main kind of flattish for the year from the good start?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, thanks, Mike, for the question. Yes, we're very happy that we set a target for fiscal ‘23 of a reduction of 5% relative to the ‘22 exit rate. And we came in at 7%. As we've continued to mention, we, we have recommitting to operating discipline and we did implement additional actions this quarter proactively. And the way we are managing our portfolio is really while we are reducing cost, we want to ensure that we continue to invest, appropriately in technology leadership and diversification in some of the areas that Cristiano just went through. So that's the balance we are trying to strike. And, and as we look at the rest of the year, again, we're committed to maintaining operating as we move forward. I think we're in a very good place from an OpEx perspective. We are investing in the right areas and we'll, we'll focus on those, that scale.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks. And kind of building on that, my follow-up question to you, Cristiano. Just to follow-up on the on-device, Gen AI opportunity, how should we think about the increased dollar content per device for Qualcomm or increased ASPs relative to your high-end Snapdragon shipped today? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, let me start and see if, Akash wants to add any, something else to the answer. The way we think about this is let, you rather than provide a specific dollar content is, it has a mix improvement and it will drive towards a richer mix of higher in premium tier devices. It has an ASP increase, especially because of the accelerated performance for AI. And we're combining that with significant advancements in CPU and GPU as well. And it has the opportunity to drive units, whether it's a new upgrade cycle, or share gains. Akash, I don't know if you want to add anything.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, and maybe just the other thing to keep in mind is outside handsets as we talk about PC opportunity. Of course, our AI leadership becomes extremely important there. And then also within IoT, we think about Gen AI as something that's going to be a key technology going forward. It'll expand our addressable market, expand the dollars we make per device on, in that area as well. So, it's a much broader play for us, including automotive with ADAS, IoT and PC.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, I want to ask the March quarter seasonality question a little more directly. And Akash, can you just give us some of the puts and takes on that March quarter seasonality? I mean, we've got a strong Apple quarter presumably in December that rolls off. We've got Samsung that launches, although we can question what the share is. We've got other things going on. Just how do we think about that seasonality in the context of everything that's going on, which we'll be expecting?
Akash Palkhiwala:
All right. Sure. So let me maybe try to address, shape of the year as a broader comment. I mean, we do expect the first quarter and the fourth quarter to be the strongest quarters within the year. And then third quarter, as you know, is typically the lower quarter because we don't have a flagship phone launch that happens during the quarter. But, when you step back and kind of look at as we enter fiscal 2024, we're very happy with kind of the early signs of stabilization in the global handset market. And so we are cautiously optimistic as we go forward with that stabilizing and the normalization of Android channel inventory, we are on a strong trajectory as we go through the year.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. That's helpful. For my second question, I want to ask about the new Apple agreement. So you put that out a little while ago. You're modeling 20% share now in the phone that launches in ‘26. So that'll be primarily a fiscal ‘27 issue. How should we think about, the shape of that in ‘24 and the launches that happened in ’24 and ‘25? Do we assume that you've got close to 100% of the majority of the units there and then it drops down for modeling purposes to 20% on the ‘26 launch or like, what does that look like?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So the way you should think about the new agreement with our kind of going into specifics, the framework is very consistent with the previous agreement. It covers three launches. So, the launch in ‘24, launch in ‘25, and launch in ‘26. And, again, the framework is consistent with what we had before. For financial planning purposes, we're taking the same approach as we did with last agreement, and that's 20% you mentioned where in the last year, we are planning as if we're going to get 20% share. But you know, to the extent that we get more than that, that'd be upside for our plan.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
Ross Seymore:
Hi guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I just wanted to dive a little bit into the automotive and IoT sides of things. Just a clarification for your fiscal fourth quarter guide, Akash. I believe you said they'd be somewhat similar to last year. I just wondered what you meant by that. And then a bigger cyclical question, we've heard a number of different companies talk about inventory burn in those two markets. You guys highlighted it in IoT, so I wondered where we were there. And are you seeing anything in automotive?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So, the financial guidance we gave is that the year over -- the quarter-over-quarter trend from September quarter to the December quarter in automotive and IoT will be consistent with last year. So if you look at last year, automotive was down, I think, 1% or 2%. And so we're guiding effectively down 1% or 2% or flat for automotive. We obviously had a very strong quarter in the September quarter. The business traction continues to accelerate for us. The product roadmap is great. As Cristiano outlined in his prepared remarks, the relationship with the customers was very strong as well. So, we continue to be optimistic and we're well on our way to execute on the financial targets we have given long-term. From an IoT perspective, again the same guidance that it's consistent with last year, what the trend we saw between the September December quarter. And really when you think about IoT, we're seeing some of the same factors that other players in the industry are seeing, some demand weakness coupled with channel inventory. As we look forward, we think our first quarter as the bottom for the year for IoT. We expect to strengthen from that point on, and especially as we get into the second half of the fiscal year, with the environment normalizing, but then also very increasingly strong traction for our products. We think we'll have a strong second half in IoT.
Ross Seymore:
Just wanted to ask a follow-up on the gross margin side of things. Cristiano, you talked about AI at the edge and across a number of different products, whether it's the PC side, the handset side, etcetera. I just wondered what does that mean to the gross margin within QCT. It seems like it opens up new TAMs on the unit side. Outside of handsets, probably increases the TAM from a dollar content on the handset side. Does that yield upside to gross margin about the same? Just what are the puts and takes as we translate all that to the profitability side?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So, from a shorter term perspective, as you'll see from our guide, we did we did very well in September quarter, we are guiding in-line for December quarter. I think your question is more of a longer term opportunity of the expansion of our gross margin as we get into these new areas. And we definitely agree that I think as we scale in outside handsets especially in automotive and IoT, we have an opportunity for margin expansion.
Cristiano Amon:
You know, Ross, this is Cristiano. Just two things I want to add real quick on the first question and then on this. As, we can scale in markets, for example, such as auto and in certain segments of the IoT, like PCs, XR, those things, they also have the opportunity to give us operating margin efficiency because our R&D is highly leveraged, especially on the computing the connectivity part. So the more that we get scale, we’ll continue to probably be accretive to margins. I want to make a quick comment on your IoT. You should look at the IoT dynamics, not all IoT are created equal. I think we have a lot of things within our IoT. So there's existing business that are subject to the some of the inventory dynamics, but there are new growth opportunities there. One of I remind everyone that PC is in there, which is, likely going to be material in fiscal ‘25, if you think about devices with the X Elite or launching towards the second of ‘24, you have XR, which was still in the early phase of that opportunity, it has networking, we have Fiber, we didn't have it before. So, I think we're positioned now to expand in networking with Fiber and 5G and Wi Fi-7 is positive. And, you know, it has still an opportunity to move, processing to the edge when IoT next. So, we're going to be -- those are less subject to the some of the cyclical dynamics we're seeing right now for existing business. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next questions are from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Please proceed with your questions.
Christopher Rolland:
Thanks for the question, guys. How are you guys thinking about global handset units over your next fiscal year? And then also given your new product launches here, how should we think about Qualcomm ASPs, as we progress for the next fiscal year as well.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Chris, it's Akash. So, as we mentioned on the call, we’ve seen kind of early signs of stabilization in the handset market, including in China. And for calendar 2023, we now expect mid to high single digit versus 2022, which is an improvement from what we had before. As we look at 2024, the recent demand stabilization obviously provides a positive setup as we go into the year. So we are cautiously optimistic on how 2024 plays out. But specifically on 5G units, which is really our target market, we expect high single digit to low double digit growth from 2023 into 2024. So that's kind of the market that we pursue and we think there's growth opportunity there going into next year. From an ASP perspective, because of all the factors we discussed earlier in the call with the chips becoming way more capable, especially with GenAI, we think we are on a good trajectory to continue to expand our ASP consistent with the last three year trend. So if you look at our last three year trend, we've added, approximately 10% increase in any tier of chipset every year. And we think as we look forward, we have the opportunity to do that, going forward.
Christopher Rolland:
That's a great update. Thank you. Another question for you quickly. There was some new language in your 10-K around the, European Commission proposing regulations around standard essential patents, potentially devaluing those patents I wasn't familiar with this. How serious do you think that risk could be? And are there any other meaningful developments in any other geographies? Or are we all kind of status quo?
Alex Rogers:
Yes. So thanks for that question. This is Alex. We've been tracking these developments in the European Union. There's actually a, variety of parks to this proposed regulation ranging from wanting more transparency and ownership of SEPs and essentiality of SEPs to, to other issues relating to kind of pre-legal processes and, and other sorts of regulations that would affect the licensing and go to court process. The European Union right now is in what they call a trialogue process. It's going to take a while to get through, parliament, and the member states are going to weigh in. The commission's going to weigh in. The European Patent Office is actually opposed to parts of the regulation. Erickson and Nokia, of course, weighing in as well. So this is going to be a fairly, messy just call it legislative process that will take some number of years to sort out. It's being followed in other jurisdictions. We're following it here in the US. The US Patent Trademark Office has weighed in somewhat negatively I think. And it's being followed in China as well. So this will kind of play out over some years. It's not that unusual to have a variety of different SEP related, policy initiatives underway in different jurisdictions.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Chris Caso:
Yes, thank you. Good evening. The first question is regarding the overall handset demand and understand the comments you made about 5G units going into next year. I guess one part of the question is with the increase that you saw in the China business. How much of that do you believe was associated with just inventory normalization as opposed to actual more end market units. And then what does that mean for QTL, which has also been somewhat depressed because of the lower handset market, what should we expect on that as we go into next year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, Chris, it's Akash. So, the way we think about the handset market is we've seen a stabilization in the market and we're projecting forward, especially into the December quarter and QTL's guide as something that stable market represents. And so we're guiding a midpoint of $1.4 billion, sequential growth of 11%. In terms of breaking down the revenue growth in QCT, between inventory and market, obviously, it's kind of difficult to do over a quarter. But we do think that inventory is a big part of it. And it's really the market is stabilizing where it's at with inventory really driving a majority of the improvement in addition to our market share position and revenue growth that comes with, content increase as new chips get launched.
Chris Caso:
Got it. And with regard to QTLN, I guess I'd assume to see the QTL numbers to come back closer to where we've seen them in the past. That's going to require some more, improvement in end market demand, is that accurate?
Akash Palkhiwala:
I mean, QTL revenue forecast is really a function of the scale of the overall handset market and so as the scale changes, it would improve QTL revenues as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Brett Simpson :
Yeah. Thanks very much. My question was really on fiscal 2024 android, smartphone outlook. And I guess there's a lot of moving parts here with Huawei building up their own chipsets. And we've all seen the volumes they're talking about for next year. And you've also got a fairly high share in flagship segments with Samsung. So just looking at fiscal 2024, can you perhaps just provide us a framework for whether or not Qualcomm can grow Android's handset sales in fiscal 2024? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Brett, we're not, we're not guiding the full year at this point. We gave you the guidance for first quarter and I gave you an outline as well of how we expect the shape of the year to play out for the overall company. And I think those pointers should give you a sense of our view into the year.
Brett Simpson :
Okay. May maybe just to follow-up, Akash, in terms of your OpEx plan for fiscal 2024, I mean, we've seen your sales in fiscal 2023 decline, an operating profit down pretty significantly in fiscal 2023. How are you thinking about the OpEx for fiscal 2024? And I guess, and specifically, when I look at Qualcomm's headcount, over 50,000 people in the business and a lot of your large fabless peers have about half that headcount. How do we think about the sort of spending plan for next year just given the puts and takes here. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So, Brett, as you're aware, through calendar, through fiscal 2023 we took, action on cost reductions a couple times. And as I also mentioned, this quarter we've taken additional action. So the idea is how do we maintain operating discipline while continuing to invest in the diversification initiatives that are so important for the company going forward. And what you're seeing in our forecast is a representation of those factors.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
Tal Liani:
I want to ask about market share. Next year, MediaTek is saying that they're doing great and they're gaining share, Huawei published now their target for 100 million units versus 60 million that they had before. And the question is, how do you feel about your market share for handset sourced within China? What are the areas maybe that you are strong at? What are the areas that you think you'll see more competition? Thanks.
Alex Rogers:
Akash, I will start and maybe you had some quantitative comments. Tal, I think I will say if you just recap, in fiscal 2023 that just ended, we had a share increase, both globally and in China, of sell through. And we'd like, I think the direction that we have been going as we said, we will continue to retain, majority share at Samsung. We feel good about that relationship going forward. And we have, seen traction from premium and high tier before Chinese OEMs in spite of the launch of in the successful I think, initial sales of a newcomer, and that's kind of also reflected in the sequential, 35% growth. Akash, I don't know if there anything you'd like to add.
Akash Palkhiwala:
No, I'll just say, this competitive environment is no different than what we've had in the past. And really, if you look at our current products and going forward, we think our competitive differentiation is actually accelerating both with our custom CPUs coming into our handset product line. And with GenAI in addition to kind of other factors that differentiate us. So, we're pretty confident as we go forward, we're in a good place from a competitive positioning perspective and content increase.
Tal Liani:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question and answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
No, Thank you all for listening to and participating in the call. I just want to say thank you to our employees. Our suppliers, our partner, and I think we're being focused on the things we can control and really focus on building incredible, I think, products as we continue to change Qualcomm from a communications company to a connected computer company and go into new markets. Thank you again and looking forward to talk to you all next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, August 2, 2023. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13739729. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan :
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In our fiscal Q3, we delivered results consistent with our guidance with non-GAAP earnings of $1.87 per share, above the midpoint of our guidance. We recorded fiscal Q3 non-GAAP revenues of $8.4 billion, including $7.2 billion from our chipset business and $1.2 billion from our licensing business. This quarter also marked our 11th straight quarter of year-over-year double-digit percentage growth in QCT Automotive revenues. We are pleased with our technology, product and design win execution, positioning us well for continued leadership enhancements and future growth and diversification in automotive and IoT. I will now share some highlights from across the business. Our Snapdragon Series mobile platforms continue to set the benchmark for premium tier mobile experiences. Smartphones powered by our Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 represent the top devices according to Antutu benchmarks in Android Authority. We are also pleased that the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 for Galaxy will again power Samsung's newest flagship device lineup globally. The Galaxy Z Flip, Galaxy Z Fold 5 and the Galaxy Tab S9 series. Our fastest Snapdragon ever for Samsung defines a new standard in smartphone computing capabilities AI experiences, desk top-level gaming features, professional-grade photography, enhanced mobile productivity and more. This launch underscores Qualcomm and Samsung's mutual commitment to delivering premium consumer experiences for flagship Galaxy devices. We are extremely proud of our successful partnership with Samsung Mobile. We are also pleased to extend Snapdragon experiences to mass market 5G smartphones. The redesigned Snapdragon for Gen 2 mobile platform will bring premium experiences at reduced prices to help drive 4G to 5G migration, especially in new 5G deployments worldwide. We're looking forward to device announcements in the second half of 2023. In automotive, we hosted our first Automotive Summit in Suzhou, China, with more than 1,000 automotive OEMs, Tier 1s, ecosystem partners, media, analysts and government officials in attendance. The broad participation at the event demonstrates Qualcomm's strong position as a technology partner to the growing automotive ecosystem worldwide, especially EVs as well as Snapdragon digital chassis technology and product leadership. We also won more than 10 new designs with leading automakers across the globe for next-generation digital cockpit and telematics systems. In Consumer IoT, the recently announced Meta Quest 3 is the first virtual and mixed reality headset to be powered by a next-generation Snapdragon XR platform developed in collaboration with Meta -- the Quest 3 features 2x the graphical performance, higher resolution and a slimmer, more comfortable form factor than the Quest 2. We're also helping to drive the growing ecosystem of VR and MR developers in China. Oppo recently announced their Oppo MR Glass Developer Edition, powered by Snapdragon XR2. And in compute, our next-generation PC platform with integrated custom Orion CPUs in a significantly upgraded AI engine remains on track for commercial readiness. We look forward to sharing more information at our Snapdragon Summit in October. In networking IoT, we continue to gain momentum with WiFi 7 customer design wins. As an example, TP Link expanded its retail small and media business lines by launching 5 new routers spanning indoor and outdoor deployment scenarios, all based on Qualcomm networking Pro WiFi 7 platforms. Lastly, we're very pleased to share that we have begun shipping our fixed wireless access solutions in support of Reliance deals upcoming 5G FWA service in India. In industrial IoT, we launched a video collaboration platform suite, which provides OEMs choice and flexibility for the design and deployment of immersive video conference devices across conference rooms, health care settings and at home video calling with friends and family, enabling Windows, Android and Linux on our platforms offers the ability to customize and deploy videoconferencing products across diverse environments. Additionally, our platforms offer industry-leading AI-based noise suppression and dynamic framing. We also launched the QCS 8550 and QCS 4490, our first software-defined IoT solutions at Hannover Messe. These solutions enable next-gen smart cameras, drones, robotics, cloud gaming, industrial handhelds, panels point-of-sale devices and more. Lastly, together with Arrow Electronics, we announced a strategic collaboration to accelerate edge and AI adoption to the formation of Edge Labs, an aero center of excellence designed to help customers alleviate IoT development challenges while increasing adoption of edge AI across a variety we have an update on our progress in Generative AI since the last call. We're very pleased and encouraged by the rapid acceleration of Gen AI at the edge. This presents a significant opportunity for Qualcomm across our end markets. Use cases at the edge are evolving differently than the cloud given the inherent context, immediacy, privacy, security, application reliability and personalization capabilities available on device. For example, in handsets, models such as Stable Diffusion and Control Net or changing user experiences for content creation and photography. Large language models embedded in the user interface can also enable enhanced virtual assistance. In personal computing, real-time copilots can bring significant enhancements to productivity and creativity, the benefits of which are well understood and very compelling for enterprises across industries. We believe the automotive industry will use some of the most advanced edge AI capabilities from large language models for personalized and curated content and services driver and occupant monitoring and AI virtual assistance to contextual search. ADAS and autonomy applications can be enhanced by the fusion of data from cameras and other sensors for combined real word perception, drive path prediction and more. We're helping enable this capabilities and expect Gen AI use cases to extend to XR, edge networking and industrial IoT. Within the quarter, we expanded our collaborations across the ecosystem, and we are engaged with multiple hyperscalers, OEMs and ISVs. Notably, we recently announced a collaboration with Meta on Llama 2-based AI implementations on flagship smartphones and PCs that will enable developers to create new and exciting Gen AI applications using the AI capabilities of Snapdragon platforms beginning in 2024. Together with Meta, we're working to optimize the execution of Meta's Llama 2 large language models directly on device. We also announced a focused collaboration with Microsoft to scale AI capabilities and bring best-in-class AI experience to users across consumer, enterprise and industrial devices. At the Microsoft Build Developer Conference, our own device, Stable Diffusion, was showcased on a Windows on Snapdragon power laptop. We're also working with them to enable a host of productivity-based applications with multiple large models running on the device. As part of this collaboration, our AI engine direct SDK is now available to Windows developers to easily accelerate their AI apps on Snapdragon compute platforms. This marks a significant milestone. In summary, we are uniquely positioned to help shape and capitalize on the upcoming on-device Gen AI opportunity. Our AI technology is highly differentiated with best-in-class high-performance, low-power heterogeneous computing across our CPU, GPU and NPU. And a multibillion parameter Gen AI models run pervasively and continuously on device, we believe our NPUs unparalleled AI processing performance and power efficiency will become a requirement. We look forward to sharing more about our Gen AI capable products at Snapdragon Summit in October. Before I turn the call over to Akash, I would like to provide an update on how we are managing our business in the current macroeconomic environment. We remain focused on executing our strategy and prioritizing capital and resource allocation on our future growth and diversification opportunities. Simultaneously, we are focused on long-term operating margin targets, all while maintaining technology leadership across wireless connectivity, high performance, low power processing and artificial intelligence. To that end, we're taking a conservative view of the market, and we'll be proactively taking additional cost actions to ensure Qualcomm is well positioned to deliver maximum value for stockholders in an uncertain environment. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with our third fiscal quarter results. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $8.4 billion and EPS of $1.87, which was above the midpoint of our guidance. QTL recorded revenues of $1.2 billion and EBT margin of 66% and reflecting slightly lower-than-expected global devices. QCT revenues of $7.2 billion and EBIT margin of 24% were consistent with the midpoint of our guidance. Handset revenues of $5.3 billion reflected the industry landscape we have previously outlined. IoT revenues increased 7% sequentially to $1.5 billion, driven by consumer and industrial IoT customers. We saw continued momentum in automotive for our Snapdragon digital chassis products with revenues of $434 million, a growth of 13% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating expenses were flat sequentially at $2.2 billion. We have successfully executed on our fiscal '23 cost actions and are on track to exceed our commitment of a 5% reduction relative to fiscal '22 exit rate. During the quarter, the sale of Veoneer's active safety business to Magna was completed for net cash proceeds of $1.5 billion. Before turning to the fourth fiscal quarter guidance, I'll update you on global 3G, 4G, 5G handset units and channel inventory. We continue to estimate that calendar 23 handset units will be down at least a high single-digit percentage relative to calendar '22, reflecting the macro environment and a slower recovery in China. This forecast contemplates growth in handset units going into the holiday season. In IoT, channel inventory remains elevated due to weaker demand driven by the broader macroeconomic conditions. Since it remains difficult to predict the timing of a sustained recovery and customers remain cautious with purchases, we continue to operate under the assumption that inventory drawdown dynamics will be a factor through the end of the calendar year. Turning to guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.80 to $2. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion and EBT margins of 64% to 68%, driven by a slight sequential increase in global handset units. In QCT, we expect revenues of $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion and EBT margins of 24% to 26%. This forecast is consistent with our prior guidance of muted seasonality in QCT revenues primarily due to the timing of purchases by a modem-only handset customer. On a sequential basis, we are forecasting Android handset revenues to be roughly flat with mid-single-digit decline in IoT and low double-digit growth in automotive. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately flat relative to the third quarter. As we approach fiscal '24, our revenue growth will largely depend on macroeconomic environment, global handset units and China recovery. In the first fiscal quarter, we expect 2 drivers of sequential revenue growth. QTL seasonality and handset launch by a modem-only customer. In addition, we expect a sequential decline in IoT and automotive revenues, consistent with the seasonal trend we've seen in the last couple of years. As you will recall, we had previously communicated we would evaluate additional cost actions as the environment continues to evolve. Until we see sustained signs of improving fundamentals, our operating framework does not assume an immediate recovery. Given our commitment to operating discipline, we will proactively implement additional cost actions in the first half of fiscal '24. This will be incremental to the reductions we have successfully completed in fiscal '23. Despite these actions, we will preserve investments in our strategic priorities and position ourselves to emerge stronger as the recovery from the broader industry begins to take hold. In closing, we remain focused on executing on our vision to bring connectivity, high-performance, low-power computing and on-device generative AI to the edge. Our guiding principles remain the same. -- prioritize technology leadership, accelerate diversification and drive earnings growth to create value for our stockholders. This concludes our prepared remarks. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan :
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Matt Ramsay with TD Cowen.
Matt Ramsay :
Akash, I guess for my first question, you were kind enough to give us a little bit of color in your prepared script just now on December and went through a few things there pretty quickly. So I wanted to double-click on a few. Maybe you could recap for us, just the trends you expect in handsets versus IoT and auto that you gave. And in particular, you talked about some seasonality being better in the fourth calendar quarter in the handset market, but that inventory burn was still going to be part of the dynamic. So if you could talk through that in a little bit more detail, what kind of magnitude are you expecting for the industry in the fourth quarter? What's built into your estimates? And is the inventory burn just an Android dynamic? Or do you think that the prepurchases from Cupertino are still an effect in the December quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Matt. So there was a lot in there. I'll try to unpack it. Let me divide it into parts. So first, starting with the market. Our forecast does assume sequential growth into the December quarter as we go into the holiday season. From a financial perspective, consistent with historical years, we typically have 2 significant drivers of growth going into December from September. First is QTL, and we expect to see that growth as the market grows as well. And then second is handset launched by a modem-only customer. Off of the base we have in September, we expect to see that growth as well. So those would be the 2 significant growth drivers into the quarter. From an IoT and automotive perspective, if you look at the last couple of years, we've seen a trend of a slight decline in both areas quarter-over-quarter from September to December. So we just think the same seasonality will play out, not something that goes beyond that. It's just a normal timing that we've seen in the market in the past. Maybe the last comment I'll say is our forecast for September and December quarter does assume no material revenues from Huawei. As you are aware, we have a 4G license for shipping into Huawei. We do not have a 5G license, and we are not assuming any material revenue going forward. So hopefully, that covers all the different parts.
Operator:
The next question is from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee :
I have a couple, but maybe Akash, if we can start with the calendar fourth quarter comment that you just had. If I look back at some of the seasonality that you had in prior years there. We see a wide range. I mean somewhere between sort of 10% plus to somewhat of a higher number as well in the double digits. Maybe if you can give us a bit more color in terms of -- as you think about, you said in your smartphone outlook as well a recovery in the December quarter in terms of volumes. How are you thinking about it relative to typical seasonality in the prior years?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So Samik, maybe no additional comments to what I just said. I think if you look at our history, with the growth in the smartphone market, we see QTL grow with it. And so we expect a similar gain this year. And then I'd probably say similar to on the modem customer side as well, we'd see something similar to what we've seen in the past. So I think using historical trend as a way to model it going forward is a reasonable way of doing it for those 2 factors.
Samik Chatterjee :
Okay. Okay. And for my follow-up, I mean, obviously, the inventory on the balance sheet did come down a bit, but how are you thinking about the opportunity here to sort of discount to clear some inventory of the balance sheet or even sort of from an investor's perspective or how should we think about the risk about inventory write-down if the recovery is sluggish for a period of time? How should we think about those drivers given that the inventory drawdown has continued for a longer-than-expected duration?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So Samik, obviously, our analysis is reflected in our results. We think you will understand the drivers that got us to the industry, the inventory balance. It's the overall industry being weaker. And with 6 months lead time, you're planning for a different market. And what we're comfortable with is that we have the inventory on the right parts. There is long lifetime on it, and there's demand for it. So our latest analysis on the topic is reflected in our results.
Operator:
The next question is from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley :
Great. Cristiano, I just want to talk about the Snapdragon for Gen 2 that you talked about. How is the initial uptick in terms of Android demand from your customers looking at that? And do you think, given the supply-demand imbalance that you'll be able to now make gain share in 2024 as you move downstream on Android?
Cristiano Amon:
Mike, thanks for the question. So let me just start with the Snapdragon 4 Gen 2. What we like about it is it insource, the market needs to drive now the next wave of 4G to 5G migration. Just as an example, Xiaomi just recently launched the Redmi 12 5G smartphone yesterday in India at an ASP at USD 135. So we're very encouraged with now the ability to create this 4G to 5G migration. I think there are a number of markets now that are deploying 5G and developing economies. And as you pointed out, now we don't have supply constraint anymore at the last year. And our new product road map, we're encouraged about the ability to drive that 4G to 5G migration at those price points.
Mike Walkley :
Just a quick follow-up, just on the IoT business. Can you give us just an update on the 3 segments or any of the segments doing better than others in terms of the inventory believe or the outlook that you provided?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Mike. So this is Akash. I'll start and maybe Cristiano can add on top of it. So in the short term, the IT business is seeing some of the same dynamics as you're seeing come through with our peers from a demand side and what the impact it has on the inventory -- channel inventory. When we saw the initial weakness, it started with consumer, but we did see it go across to other parts of IoT as well, especially within China. But we're pretty happy with the results we had in the June quarter. We are up approximately 7% on revenue. And it was really growth across industrial and consumer that drove that benefit. Difficult to kind of predict the timing of recovery and the inventory drawdown. We did say that it would be a factor through the end of the calendar year. But that's the framework for the very short term on IoT side.
Cristiano Amon:
Maybe the only thing I was going to add, Mike, as we indicated multiple times, there's a lot of things in our IoT segment. And there are some of those things that they have yet to materialize. I think we talk about our PC space, which we're excited about the new product we have been developing with our custom CPUs. We're still in the beginning of virtual reality. We're encouraged by now other players entering the market, which will ignite develop our ecosystem. And I think lastly, on networking. We like the WiFi 7 design win pipeline that could materialize in a new cycle into the future. So as we outlined, there's a number of different things within that segment.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon :
Hello. Sorry about that. I wanted to ask about tip gross margins. They seemed reasonably strong in the quarter even with revenues down. They seemed like maybe they were implied up a bit sequentially the guide seems pretty stable into September. Can you give us any feeling for drivers of the margin pricing mix? You talked about some additional cost dynamics. I don't know if there's anything in there on the cost of goods side. some of the dynamics there? And how should we expect that to evolve? Is it just mix that drives it going forward? Are there other things that we should think about?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Stacy. It's Akash. Yes, we did come in a little bit better than forecasted for the September quarter, and it was really primarily driven by a mix of products. we're guiding approximately flat margins going into September from June. And that's a reasonable way of forecasting our margins going forward as well. So we expect to be in the range as we go forward.
Stacy Rasgon :
If I could ask one more briefly. Cristiano, you're talking a lot about AI and how that's going to contribute. How does AI actually contribute to the model going forward? Like are you anticipating that venture drives an upgrade cycle? Or is it more content? Or is it ASPs for the chips fall less than they would otherwise? Like how do we think about how that actually drives the model as adoption happens?
Cristiano Amon:
Very good. Thanks for the question, Stacy. Look, I think I will unpack the answer to the question. And first of all, we're very confident of what we see happening at the edge. On device, I think there's a number of reasons AI is developing on devices, a little bit different in the cloud. Everything that is real-time AI, always-on AI, context latency, reliability, personalization. And I think that can apply to products across all of our end markets. When it will happen, we are going to announce a new set of products at the Septran Taxi that are all going to be GnAI-capable products that were on phones, on computing products on all of the other segments in auto and IoT. And we think the monetization will happen 2 ways, right? The easiest way to think about it is if our customers in our partners that are working with us. We mentioned a few in the prepared remarks, come up with the new use cases and you have now an AI-capable smartphone, that changes the size of the phone market. It could create an upgrade cycle in between 5G and 6G, and changes the size of the market, also improve the mix towards our product lines and ASP increases. For you to do device, Gen AI on device, you need a different computing platform. And that's what we have been doing with our NPU. I think it's probably the unmatched by any of our peers and ability to do high-performance AI pervasively and continuously a low power. And we look, those things could create an inflection point as hard to predict the timing, but we can see how it changes the mix and improve the ASP in our products.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore :
I just have one question, one follow-up. On the December quarter soft guide that you gave, Akash, you talked about your modem-only customer having its typical seasonality in the fourth quarter, calendar fourth quarter. What is typical seasonality and/or your expectations for the Android side of things in that quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So from an Android perspective, we expect the quarterly trend to be consistent with history. If you look at what typically happens for us in Android as we launch our new chips in the in the March quarter, and that's when the new premium tier chip comes out, and that's typically the stronger quarter for us. So it's really driven by timing of product launches. But fundamentally, when you look at our position within Android, even within '23, we've actually grown share of sell-through from '22 to '23. So we continue to be in a very strong position, and it's just the market dynamics that's kind of driving the cyclicality in the business.
Ross Seymore :
And I guess as my follow-up, sticking with you, Akash, on the OpEx side of things, you talked about macro still being uncertain, and so you were going to take actions in the first half of year fiscal '24 on the cost side of the equation. Could you give us any more color on that? I assume it's largely on the OpEx side. You guys have been successful in hitting your 5% reduction, if not beating it exiting this year versus last. Any sort of quantification you can provide on what your expectations are for OpEx in that new cost-cutting plan?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure. So let me give you the framework of how we're thinking about it, and I don't have quantification at this point. But we've -- in '23, we exceeded the target we set. And as we've said before, we'll continue to look at additional reductions as the environment evolves. So given that what we're planning to do is proactively implement additional actions in first half of '24. And the framework for it is we're going to preserve our strategic priorities. We're going to reduce in certain areas, but then also have the capability to invest in new technology, especially AI and continue to invest in our diversification plan. So it's really an effort to get our investment portfolio right as consistent with the priorities going forward for the company.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.
Chris Caso :
Yes. As a first question, if perhaps you could talk a bit about mix, where is your mix sitting as compared to where it was last year? And obviously, the mix has skewed higher during times of supply constraints and now there's greater availability. So how is that affecting margins and revenue? And as things go forward, how do you expect that to change as well? I guess there's some concern that mix shifts down to perhaps some lower end of the portfolio as the 5G cycle matures and emerging markets tend to become a bigger part of the 5G mix.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes, Chris. It's Akash. If you look at the mix change, it's really happened through the year where we expanded our position in the lower tiers a bit, and it's already reflected in the comments I made earlier to Stacy's question on gross margin. So really no incremental comments to what I said earlier. As we look forward, one of the key opportunities for us is really how do we expand the ASP as just we're continuing to see incremental demand across all tiers for more capability in the chipset. And to Cristiano's earlier point with generative AI becoming so critical in edge devices going forward. it's going to drive an inflection point in terms of our presence there and our ability to expand content.
Chris Caso :
That’s helpful. Just a follow-up question about geographic revenue in particular to the handset business. And we’ve been hearing about perhaps greater macro concerns in China as compared to elsewhere. In terms of normalizing the business and getting the global handset market back to where it once was. Is this mainly a situation where we need to see China come back and normalize? Or is more of a global trend. What needs to improve in other words, to get back to what used to be normal?
A –Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes, I’d say a couple of parts. So we’ve seen weakness across China and other emerging markets. Those are definitely the 2 areas. In developed markets, it is largely held. There is some smaller impact but not as much. I think the opportunity is really across the board. I think 1 is just from an overall replacement rate perspective, you could see that increase going forward, driven by new technology cycles, but also within the emerging markets in China, you could see some normalization of return and demand as things stabilize. So those would be the opportunities. Just to be clear, in the guidance that we’re giving at this point, we are not including those, and that would be upside to our plan.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
Brett Simpson :
Akash, I had a near-term question on smartphones. I mean some of your smartphone peers are reporting better fundamentals near term. I think MediaTek's -- in the June quarter, they were up 6% in smartphones, and they're talking about mid-teens growth sequentially in September quarter. And I think Qorvo has also talked about quite a significant uplift in September. And I know you said there's weakness elsewhere in QCT, but can you just maybe home in on the smartphone business? And can you reconcile with some of the peers and what they're guiding and what you're guiding? Is it just really Apple and Huawei is going through a volatile patch for orders? Or is there something more structural you think it work? And maybe a second question for Cristiano. You talked earlier this year I think at Mobile World Congress actually that you were assuming no Apple business in 2024 because you didn't have orders and new orders there. Has anything changed with regards to Apple? And how should we think about this relationship beyond calendar '23?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes, Brett. So I'll start with your first question. If you -- let me break it down into Android and Apple in 2 parts. Within Android, two comments to keep in mind. First is we don't think there has been any significant shift in share between the players over the last few months. However, what has happened is when you look at our total share of sell-through for '23 relative to '22, as I mentioned earlier, we've actually gained share within Android. So we continue to have a very strong position and the kind of the seasonality across the quarters for Android is really a reflection of when devices are launched and which tiers we play in, which is the premium and high tier, which they center around the holiday season versus midway through the year. So that's how I would think about the Android market. On Apple, as I've said before, we expected muted seasonality in the fourth quarter due to the timing of chipset purchases. We did see them buy additional chipsets earlier in the year. And so what we are forecasting now is expected demand, expected shipments into the next quarter. So it's -- that really just speaks to timing again rather than some fundamental trend. As you know, we expect to be a majority of the share in the new upcoming launch, and so it's not really a share question.
Cristiano Amon:
Brett, to your second question, for the iPhone that is launching this year, we are going to support the modem. We're not making any updates to our prior plans for 2024.
Operator:
Our next question is from line of Tal Liani, Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
Yes. Auto market, we spoke a lot about the handsets. I have two questions related. Auto market was also weak. Can you give an update on why it grew 13% versus 16% Street expectations? But this 13% is also lower than what we have seen before. So can you talk about the trends there? IoT was in line with expectations, but it's still declining 24% a year. So what is the trend over there? And on the handset side, I'm just wondering if there was deterioration throughout the quarter or it was improvement throughout the quarter? Kind of what was the intra-quarter trend?
Akash Palkhiwala :
I understand. I understand. On the handset side, really largely in line with what we had expected. So no trend one way or the other. Auto, in our actuals, came in slightly below our expectations. However, if you see what we guided for the upcoming quarter, quarter-over-quarter growth, we're guiding low double-digit growth. So it's just timing between the quarters that's impacting it. Within IoT, I'd say very consistent with comments earlier in the call, it's really the overall environment and how it impacts demand and impact on inventory is what's reflected in our numbers, very consistent with what some of our peers have seen as well.
Tal Liani:
And Akash, just a clarification on something you said. You said that December should be in line with normal seasonality. I tried to look back at seasonality, and it's inconsistent. It's very hard to speak about normal. What -- how do you define normal seasonality for the sector?
Akash Palkhiwala :
If you break it down into parts. I think you look at QTL growth, we've consistently seen QTL grow as a result of mix of devices and total market size. So that would be part one. The second is we've seen the handset market grow primarily due to the launch of a flagship device by a modem-only customer. And so we would see that as well. So those are the 2 factors that would drive a majority of our growth into the December quarter.
Operator:
Our last question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
Timothy Arcuri :
I had 2. So Akash, I'm wondering if you can provide more color just on these channel headwinds. You gave a $2 billion number, I think, for December and then that came down to $1 billion or it was supposed to come down to $1 billion in March. And it was supposed have been gone by June. Obviously, it's not gone. Can you kind of quantify what the headwind is? And maybe also talk, is that component inventory at your customer is still coming down? Or is that handset sell-in still being above the handset sell-through? And then I had a second question as well.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So when we talk about channel inventory, we talk about total inventory across beyond us. So it's customers and channel both combined. I mean, clearly, as we've gone through the year, the headwinds have been meaningfully higher than we'd expected going into the fiscal year. So that is reflected in the updates that we're giving. No fundamental change to our view of our share position and overall market we've talked about as well. So it's just those factors running through our numbers. We don't have an updated estimate of how much the total impact would be. But it's the same factors that we've been talking about through the year. We've not changed the total market size since the last call.
Timothy Arcuri :
Got it. And then just last thing. So do you have any data on the refurbished market? It seems that it has gotten pretty large and maybe it's affecting the new Android market. Sort of what portion of the handset TAM this year do you think is used or refurb? Could it be -- I mean, we've seen numbers in the $350 million unit range, something like that. So the market is flat to down, but the market for new phones is really actually down quite a bit. Can you actually talk to that?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So we have the same data as you do on the refurbished phones. It has grown over the last couple of years. when we give the market, the global handset unit information, we're not talking about the refurbished phones. We are talking about new phones. And so it's already factored into the guidance we gave.
Operator:
This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon :
Thank you. We'd just like to thank all of our employees, our customers, our suppliers and partners. I think the key messages were -- we like our strategy, continue to execute on our strategy. We're executing to plan. I think we have 1 of the best product road maps in our history. We like the design traction. And in the current uncertain environment, we're just focused on taking action on things we can control and make sure we're prepared when the market rebounds. Last comment is we see a new inflection point, as I mentioned before, on the edge from Gen AI. And what we like about it, that to happen on device, fundamentally, you need a new computing engine. We have CPU, GPU, but you need something different, which is the NPU. I think we have been investing this for over a decade. We're very happy how it performs, and I would like everybody to follow what we're going to show and announce at the upcoming Tech Summit in October. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm’s Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, May 3, 2023. The playback number for today’s call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13737571. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, to comments from Qualcomm’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In a challenging macroeconomic environment and broad downturn across the semiconductor sector, we're pleased to deliver fiscal Q2 results consistent with our prior guidance. We delivered fiscal Q2 revenues of $9.3 billion, non-GAAP earnings of $2.15 per share were at the midpoint of our guidance. Our chipset business delivered revenues of $7.9 billion near the high end of our guidance range. Our licensing business delivered revenues of $1.3 billion at the low end of the guidance range on weaker demand for handsets. The evolving macroeconomic backdrop has resulted in further demand deterioration particularly in handsets at a magnitude greater than we previously forecasted. As a result, we're operating under the assumption that inventory drawdown dynamics remain a significant factor for at least the next couple quarters. Additionally, while expectations are for a rebound in China demand in the second half of the calendar year, we have not seen evidence of meaningful recovery and are not incorporating improvements into our planning assumptions. While the challenges we are facing are impacting the semiconductor industry, we remain focused on managing what is within our control and will continue to execute on our diversification strategy in leading technology and product roadmap. As market visibility remains limited, we're actively managing operating expenses, and we'll continue to evaluate additional opportunities to drive greater operating efficiencies without losing sight of the automotive and IoT growth opportunities ahead. Let me now provide key highlights from across our business. In handsets, we extended our 5G technology and product leadership with the Snapdragon X75 5G modem RF system. The world's first 5G advanced ready modem RF platform that will drive the next phase of new 5G capabilities globally, starting in 2024 across segments, device types and networks. The X75 modem is now the benchmark for 5G performance and features for all flagship smartphone launches next year. Our Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 mobile platform is the standard for Android flagship devices globally, with launches across leading OEMs, including Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, OnePlus, Honor, Motorola, ASUS and ZTE. Additionally, our Snapdragon 7 Series is redefining the high tier. Our recently-launched Snapdragon 7+ Gen 2 mobile platform outperform its competitors' premium-tier solutions, winning multiple accolades for its superior power and performance. We are seeing excellent adoption across Chinese OEMs, resulting in share gains. OEMs are also reporting strong initial sales for products powered by the 7+ Gen 2. In automotive, we see continued traction across global automakers and Tier 1 customers, driven by the increased adoption of our Snapdragon digital chassis. We are very pleased to be partnering with Mercedes-Benz on our next-generation Snapdragon Digital Cockpit platforms. This is a result of our long and close collaboration with the MBition Mercedes-Benz Software Factory and engineering teams and various partners to create an industry-leading MBOS premium cockpit experience. The new platforms will be featured in Mercedes vehicles beginning in 2023. Additionally, our OEM partners recently launched vehicles with our third-generation Snapdragon Cockpit platform, including the Xpeng P7i and Lotus new Eletre SUV. Notably, during the quarter, we won 12 new designs across our Snapdragon Cockpit and Snapdragon Connectivity 5G platforms with automakers across the globe. We remain on track to execute on the milestones outlined during Automotive Investor Day. In consumer IoT, we continue to be encouraged by the positive momentum with Windows on Snapdragon. Dell recently launched the Inspiron 14-inch laptop powered by the Snapdragon 8cx Gen 2 Compute platform. In addition to OEMs, we're expanding our ecosystem across bios, hardware, software, ODM and channel partners. We're also launching the Windows on Snapdragon developer portal to enable consumer and enterprise ISVs to test, port and optimize their applications directly on Qualcomm Silicon. Our next-generation Snapdragon Compute platform, with custom Orion CPUs and industry-leading AI acceleration, is on schedule to enable commercial device launches in 2024. As a reminder, we remain the platform of choice for all significant ecosystem players for XR, notably Meta, the joint partnership with Samsung and Google and broadly in China. While still in its early phases, we believe the merger of physical and digital spaces will become a significant opportunity for Qualcomm. We also continue to win designs for home robotics, smart appliances and smart camera applications with household names such as Bosch, LG Electronics, Panasonic, Samsung and Sony. In Edge Networking IoT, we're very pleased to share that we're now collaborating with Reliance Jio on rolling out 5G FWA across India, servicing millions of residents. We also recently announced the Qualcomm 5G Fixed Wireless Access Platform Gen 3, offering operators the ability to expand their service coverage to new areas while lowering cost and enabling faster deployment. Additionally, we continue to lead the transition to Wi-Fi 7 with more than 175 cumulative designs across all product categories. Access points account for 89 of these designs, with 16 launches in the quarter. In Industrial IoT, we announced the Qualcomm Aware platform to empower developers and enterprises to easily build real-time intelligence and visibility solutions. The platform combines simple, secure and scalable cloud-based services with power optimized and precise location tracking and an extensive hardware ecosystem to deliver tailored edge solutions across many industries. Additionally, we led the Bluetooth SIG working group to help establish a new standard for electronic shelf labels that are scalable, ultra-low power and highly secure. This will help enable large retailers to accelerate the digital transformation of the store with electronic labels that can interact with both store and consumer devices. Our OEM partner, SES-imagotag, recently announced an agreement with Walmart to deploy electronic shelf labels across 500 stores over the next 12 to 18 months. I would now like to provide a perspective on the disruptive trends in the artificial intelligence space and the significant opportunity for Qualcomm. Demand for generative artificial intelligence models is growing at an exponential rate. Generative AI models such as ChatGPT, Stable Diffusion and DALL-E have already scaled to millions of users in a short period of time. We believe that this model will evolve quickly, continue to grow in popularity and change user experiences across mobile, personal computing and automotive. Beyond changing Internet search, this model will have an impact on content creation such as text, images, audio and video for both entertainment and productivity. It will also transform many industries. For these models to realize their full potential and scale, they will need to run locally on devices at the edge. At Mobile World Congress, we demonstrated the world's first on-device Stable Diffusion, a greater than 1 billion parameter foundational model for text-to-image applications running completely on a Snapdragon-powered Android smartphone. In the coming months, we will significantly improve performance and be able to run models in excess of 10 billion parameters locally on the device, and we will increase this capability substantially for our products in 2024. Qualcomm is uniquely positioned to enable the proliferation of AI use cases on edge devices. We're advancing AI to make core on-device capabilities ubiquitous such as perception, reasoning, action and now, content creation. With millions of AI-enabled platform shipments per year, unparalleled AI processing performance per watts in the broadest range of device categories from smartphones to PCs, automotive and IoT, Qualcomm is firmly at the forefront of this upcoming transformation. Further, very large AI models are placing significant incremental demands on energy-intensive and expensive cloud computing infrastructure. As such, a hybrid AI architecture leveraging accelerating computing at the edge can offload or support cloud processing by running AI inferencing directly on the device. Beyond cost optimization, additional benefits of running generative AI on device include improved latency, security, privacy and the ability to meet data compliance requirements. This is a new and exciting opportunity for Qualcomm in one of our priority investment areas. As I close my prepared remarks, I would like to reiterate that the secular technology trends driving the long-term growth opportunities for Qualcomm remain unchanged. Despite the disappointing macroeconomic environment, our investments in technology leadership, our best product road map and history and strategic customer relationships across multiple industries position us well to execute on our strategy and expand across new and diverse end markets. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with our second fiscal quarter results. Despite a difficult operating environment, we delivered revenues of $9.3 billion, which was above the midpoint of our guidance, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15. QTL recorded revenues of $1.3 billion and EBT margin of 68%, reflecting lower-than-expected global handset units. On a year-over-year basis, we estimate global handset sell-in units declined by approximately 14%. QCT revenues of $7.9 billion and EBT margin of 27% were both near the high end of our guidance. Handset revenues increased 6% sequentially to $6.1 billion, benefiting from device launches with Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, our latest premium-tier chipset platform. IoT revenues of $1.4 billion reflected a larger-than-expected impact of macroeconomic environment on demand and channel inventory drawdown. Automotive revenues of $447 million grew 20% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of our Snapdragon digital chassis and are aligned with our long-term revenue target. Non-GAAP operating expenses of $2.2 billion were favorable relative to our guidance by approximately $80 million. We returned $1.7 billion to stockholders, including $903 million in stock repurchases and $834 million in dividends. Additionally, we are pleased to have announced a 7% increase in our quarterly dividend, consistent with our commitment to dividend growth. Before turning to our third fiscal quarter guidance, I'll give you an update on cyclical challenges impacting the semiconductor industry. Financial headwinds have increased meaningfully relative to our initial expectations going into the fiscal year. With a combination of an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, persistent inflation and a slower recovery in China, which continued to impact demand globally. We now expect global 3G, 4G, 5G handset units in calendar '23 to be down at least a high single-digit percentage relative to calendar '22, which is lower than our prior expectation. Given the weaker handset forecast, until demand normalizes and visibility improves, we anticipate that customers will remain cautious with purchases and reduce channel inventory risk further. Within IoT, we continue to see the impact of similar factors as Handsets. Since it remains difficult to predict the timing of a sustained recovery, we are operating under the assumption that the inventory drawdown dynamics will remain a significant factor for at least the next couple of quarters. To effectively navigate this uncertain landscape, we are focused on driving operating efficiencies while maintaining our commitment to invest in diversification and long-term technology leadership. We believe we remain well positioned to capture a rebound in demand once it occurs. We are on track to meet our commitment of a 5% reduction in non-GAAP operating expenses relative to our fiscal '22 exit rate. This includes a further reduction of spending in handsets to fund diversification investments in Automotive and IoT. As the environment continues to evolve, we will evaluate and execute additional cost-reduction opportunities to help exceed our operating expense target. Turning to guidance for third fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 to $1.90. Our guidance reflects the impact of macroeconomic headwinds, weaker global handset units and channel inventory drawdown. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion and EBT margins of 64% to 68%. In QCT, we expect revenues of $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion and EBT margin of 23% to 25%. Based on the midpoint of QCT revenue guidance, we estimate a larger-than-normal sequential decline primarily due to the timing of purchases by a modem-only handset customer. On a sequential basis, we are forecasting Android handsets and Automotive revenues to be roughly flat, with mid-single-digit growth in IoT. Consistent with our previous messaging and second quarter results, QCT gross margins reflect the impact of the transition from supply constraints to elevated channel inventory in addition to foundry cost increases. Lastly, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately flat sequentially. As we look ahead, we expect the dynamics impacting the third fiscal quarter to extend to the fourth quarter, including the timing of purchases by a modem-only handset customer resulting in muted seasonality in QCT revenues. In closing, while we are not immune to near-term headwinds, we are well positioned to benefit from an eventual recovery in the macro environment. Despite a reduction in global handset units and the continued drawdown of elevated channel inventory, QCT handset revenues has benefited from increased content per device, expanded traction with OEMs and improved mix across tiers. We remain focused on executing our diversification strategy and positioned ourselves for success in our largest growth opportunities, including Automotive, Industrial and Networking IoT, personal computers and XR. We're confident in our ability to navigate the current operating environment, given our strong balance sheet and debt rating. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question is from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Thanks for all the details in the prepared remarks. I had one on smartphone and one on auto, so if I can just start on the smartphone one. I think I know you're sort of taking down your guidance for the overall market outlook today for 2023. But if I look at your QTL guide, it does sort of imply that you're looking at more of a stabilization in the sell-through at an absolute level. So when I look at your QCT guide rate there, it does suggest that most of the headwinds you're seeing or expecting there are inventory and timing of the purchases. Maybe just sort of confirm if that's the way sort of -- if I'm interpreting that right? And what's the maybe magnitude of the timing and the inventory headwinds to the QCT revenue guide for fiscal third quarter? And I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Samik, you're thinking about it the right way. It's the right thing to connect the market forecast to QTL, and then QCT really has this additional factor that is related to the inventory drawdown. Our view of inventory drawdown is really the macro headwinds increase -- have increased meaningfully since the beginning of the fiscal year, and so what we've seen is the impact on market is driving a scenario where it takes longer to run through the existing inventory. We don't have a fundamental change in how much inventory we think the channel had going into the year that was accessed. It's just how long it takes to run through it as a result of the market forecast.
Samik Chatterjee:
Yes. Okay. Good. And on the auto side, Cristiano, you talked about the 12 design wins, but you mentioned them being in Cockpit and Connectivity. So I wanted to check if you have an update on ADAS and the engagement from your customers on that front and your product road map? And related to auto, I think there's been some concern about exposure to China volumes in terms of your pipeline. If you can sort of maybe just some ballpark estimate about how much of your pipeline is reliant on China electric vehicle volumes? And how should we -- how are you thinking about sort of the risk around those production numbers.
Cristiano Amon:
Very good. The 12 designs is what happened in the quarter. So we just highlight in the quarter, we had designs on the digital cockpit as well as 5G for telematics. We do -- we are working on some new designs on ADAS that is going to take us throughout the second half of the year, but we're not announcing at this time. The second comment is on China market. We have seen, I think, consistent with the overall theme of China, some weakness in China auto. I think consistent with the rest of the market. But our design and presence with the China EV, with the local OEMs is very, very high. And I think we continue to gain share.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Matt Ramsey of TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matthew Ramsay:
Thank you very much guys. Good afternoon. I have two questions. I guess I'll just ask them at the same time to make this quicker. The first one, Cristiano, in China, you were pretty clear in your script and I think you were -- you guys were earlier than most bellwether companies in flagging this, but the recovery in China in the second half of the year might be a bit more muted. And I think during the peak, obviously, things were being over shipped into China during the peak. I think we were 500 million units, give or take, on an annualized basis in China, and I think we're running closer to 300 million now on a sell-through basis. Maybe you could update us, are those numbers roughly right? And what are you guys seeing in terms of a recovery? And maybe how much are you undershipping that today that could still help your numbers in the back half of the year as you come back to shipping with parity of sell-through? And I guess I do have a follow-up, but maybe I'll just do that one first.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Matt, it's Akash. In terms of China sell-through, I think if you're looking at any of the analyst resources that's sizing the scale of the market, we're seeing pretty much the same number. So if you're -- that's what you're quoting, I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but that's what you're quoting, it'd be consistent. The way we are thinking about the inventory drawdown is, of course, it's a near-term phenomenon. We're going to get past it. The strength of our design win pipeline is very strong, so if you -- if one way to measure it in our minds is we look at our share of sell-through. And we've seen that share grow from '22 to '23, so that should give you a sense of our position going into the next year.
Cristiano Amon:
Just -- Matt, this is Cristiano. I just want to add one thing. Common sense, and I think the overall expectation is following the reopening, the China market was going to bounce back. It has been very suppressed, I think, during the lockdown and during the pandemic. I think what we're basically saying is we have not seen those signs yet, so therefore, we thought that prudence not to put in our planning assumptions, but you're going to be monitoring the situation. But the dynamic we see right now is exactly what Akash outlined. It's an inventory drawdown, and that's why I think the difference between the QCT and the QTL business.
Matthew Ramsay:
As my follow-up, mid-single digits up, I think, in the guidance you mentioned for IoT. There are sort of three different segments of the business there. If you could -- that there's been an inventory correction across the IoT business, and I think many of us have less visibility on a granular basis there than in your handset business. So if you could just talk through the dynamics of that business recovering a bit in June, that'd be helpful.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So it's Akash. When the initial weakness that we saw in IoT was in consumer, and then we've kind of seen that expanded into industrial and edge networking, and specifically China playing a significant role in that weakness. So it's a combination of all 3 areas. Now as we look forward, a lot of the growth that we're expecting within the quarter is actually going to be across -- recovery across all 3, so there isn't one that stands out that I would point to. And then maybe the last point on IoT is really when you step back and think about the broader digital transformation process and where we are at, our technologies continue to become more relevant. Cristiano talked about Edge AI, and that's going to be another technology that's going to be extremely important in Industrial, PC, XR and other areas. So still very optimistic about how things look longer term, and we'll kind of work through everything in the short term.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Cristiano, just a follow-on question for you just on the market dynamics. You made some comments about how well the Snapdragon 7 is performing relative to premium tier from your competitor. Can you talk about design win traction and share gains that you're seeing maybe further downstream from the premium tier? And once inventory clears, do you think that you start to see some sharper share gains coming back maybe in the Chinese New Year into calendar Q4? Is that too early to call on the inventory side?
Cristiano Amon:
Mike. Thanks for the question. I will say we are no longer in -- and that's probably an understatement, right? We're no longer into a supply-constrained environment. So as the supply constrained environment got resolved, we have the ability to gain share. And I think as Akash outlined, if you look at our share of activations and sell-through compared to '22, you see a very positive picture for us in China. We've been gaining share on what we call the high tier. The 7 -- the new 7 Series, we made a lot of investment including leveraging the Snapdragon brand and the position of the 7, very well received in the market. Our 7+ outperformed, I think, the competition premium tier, and we like because it sets the floor. And then you have Snapdragon very uniquely positioned in the 8 series. And I think as outlined from a share perspective, we're gaining share. Just the whole markets to go into the dynamic that we just outlined on inventory, but we like our position in the marketplace.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks and maybe a quick follow-up for Akash. Just on QCT margins, just given the inventory work there, is there any mix or anything else we should think about on QCT margins as you go through this inventory clearing and less modem-only shipments over the next couple of quarters?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So from a gross margin perspective, as we've consistently said, and I said this in the last call -- last earnings call as well. Once we get past supply constraint, we expected some pressure on gross margins, so you're seeing that come through. But if you step back from that and just look at mix of devices and how that drives margin 1 way or the other, there isn't anything that's significant enough to discuss. It's really the current environment playing through. And then as we look forward, as remaining disciplined with pricing as we grow in a mature market.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. For the first one, I was wondering if you could define what you mean by muted seasonality for September quarter. I think you're usually up. I mean, it's not uncommon for you to be up double digits. What are you thinking now? And I guess maybe if you could talk a little bit about the different drivers, Handset, IoT, Auto into Q4?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Stacy. It's Akash. If you look at our typical seasonality from third quarter to fourth quarter, it's really driven primarily by the launch of a new flagship device and the build that happens for that device. Outside of that, there are some other puts and takes, but that's the primary driver of the growth. What we're suggesting is, as I outlined in the prepared remarks, we expect that to be muted because the lower demand from the modem-only handset customer extends from June into the September quarter as well. And the reason for this is we saw them buy a little more earlier in the year, and so this is just kind of balancing purchases of chips from us. To be clear, this is not a comment -- to be clear, this is not a comment on their sell-through and it's not a comment on our share within the OEM either. This was just the timing of purchases from chips from us.
Stacy Rasgon:
Thank you. For my follow-up, like, I know you said you expect the inventory drag in the last next couple of quarters. But I guess, into June, given the magnitude of the drawdown is better or worse or about the same as what you saw in March? I'm just trying to gauge directionally, is it getting at least better or worse even though we know it's still there?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So honestly, Stacy, there's a different story with every OEM. There are certain OEMs who are much further ahead in reducing the inventory profile and there are others, including the ones we just discussed, happening over the next couple of quarters. So I haven't specifically sized it in terms of scale, but I would say each of the quarters has an impact from that phenomenon.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Thanks for me asking the question. Cristiano, I just wanted to focus on the diversification side of things. I know organically what you're doing in IoT and Automotive. Are there inorganic opportunities to accelerate that? Or is the diversification effort going to just simply take time because Automotive and IoT are great markets, but they take a reasonable amount of time to penetrate, especially given their relatively smaller size versus your Handset-oriented businesses?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Ross. Look, there are inorganic opportunities that we continue to look into the market. We've been clear. We have been focused in identifying M&A opportunity to help us to accelerate diversification. We've been very careful just because in the current environment, we wanted to do something that is actionable and we'll continue down this process of identifying, but we are looking at inorganic options as well to accelerate diversification. And we're also very excited about -- what I mentioned into the prepared remarks, I think this incredible opportunity that we now have. We're very uniquely positioned to do AI in a very high performance and low power and all the devices at the edge, and I think that's going to accelerate our diversification strategy across all the new segments. Even though it could create a new upgrade cycle in phones, but it's going to be relevant to all of the other segments of diversification as well.
Ross Seymore:
Thanks for that, Christiano. I guess one for Akash as my follow-up. On the Handset segment, it looks like you're guiding that down kind of low teens sequentially. I know you said Android's flat and the modem-only customer would be the headwind. How is Android flat if you still are saying macro is a problem, inventory burn's a problem, et cetera? Is that just evidence of the share gain? Or what's going on there?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. I assume your question, Ross, was related to QCT?
Ross Seymore:
Just QCT, that's what you guys call it. That's not aggregate.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Yes. So if you think about our historical kind of trend between these two quarters in the Android business, we're staying very consistent with that -- this quarter. I mean, if you look at last year, second quarter to third quarter, our Android business was roughly flat, and we're guiding the same this year. So it's just following the same trend and the factors, the market and inventory drawdown exist in both quarters.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore :
Great. Thank you. I guess as you look at the year-on-year decline in Handsets, how much of that would you attribute to inventory build in a year ago, inventory depletion now or any kind of change in kind of like-for-like pricing? Can you just kind of separate out those 3 factors?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Joe, we haven't talked about it or given specific numbers on it. But one of the frameworks to look at it would be to look at the two years combined. One year had the bill, the second year has the bleed. And if you look at that combined, it will give you a framework of what the run rate strength of the business is. The other thing I would say is just the one thing to calibrate in that framework is also to look at the market size as the overall market has continued to come down. But that's, I think, a good way to at least start figuring out the run rate of the business.
Joe Moore :
Okay. And then you mentioned you always sort of felt like as you came out of an allocation mode that there be a little bit of a gross margin headwind. What causes that? Is it just that -- are there expedite easy we're getting before? Is it more promotional now? And has there been any change in kind of like-for-like pricing as you've kind of moved out of that type of supply environment?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So it's a combination of them. I mean given supply constraints, we were able to exercise some pricing leverage that gets neutralized in the current excess inventory environment, and so that's just playing out through the numbers. The other two factors to keep in mind is we had a price increase from foundry that ran through starting first of January as well, and some underutilization in our RF front-end fabs that over time will get filled back in as demand comes back, and so that should be a tailwind for us going forward.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Blayne Curtis of Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks for taking my question. But maybe just following up on that last one on gross margin. I mean I guess if I'm looking at the numbers, it seems like your ASP is still going up. So is it really just the higher cost? And I guess second part of it is, I think there's a lot of concern about more competitive environment, MediaTek moving up to the high end. So just can you go back and just talk about that environment? I think you said there's no more like-for-like, but I mean, I think there's a lot of concern about maybe people buying older products and not taking Gen 2 and MediaTek moving up. Just kind of touch on those points.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Blayne, so I'll address the first part and then Cristiano will address the second part. On gross margin percentage, I think it's a reasonable way of thinking about it. Our gross margin dollars per device continues to grow, and that's the strength and it kind of adds scale and profitability to the business, but we have seen gross margin percent get impacted by the couple of factors I just outlined. But again, those are, to me, kind of ins and outs of the business. It's better to kind of step back and look at the broader longer-term opportunity for us to continue to add content to our chips, which we have done very successfully over the last 3 years. And we have an opportunity to do that, especially with our new custom CPU course coming into play into all of our product lines, including Handsets. And then with the AI that Cristiano just outlined, that will create an opportunity for us as well.
Blayne Curtis :
Go ahead.
Cristiano Amon:
No, I'm sorry, I'm just going to add a couple of comments to your specific questions. Look, the way we see this, we have done, I think, the right choices of investment. We feel pretty good about the road map and we took this very, very focused strategy and make sure that our 7 tier outperforms the competition premium tier. And that changes the landscape, which means we are very well positioned above that in the 8, as I outlined. Our design traction is very good especially within all of the OEMs, no exception. I remind you that we are globally with Samsung. Our agreement with them, we have the launch of GS 23, that just happened, then we have the Fold and Flip. And then we have the GS24. It's going to be a number of years of association of Samsung with Snapdragon brand globally. And the size of the market is not good, but our position is very strong. And as I outlined before, we're gaining share.
Blayne Curtis:
And then if I could just follow up with the modem-only. In terms of the timing, there's -- I guess you guys have been waiting if there's any decision of that customer to move away. I'm just curious if that timing you would be notified at this point? Or if you thought that the timing of shipments had anything to do with their transition?
Cristiano Amon:
No, it has nothing to do with the transition. The further transition, I think we said a number of earnings calls ago that we're expecting to be in the product that they launched in '23. And in '24, we have no change to our planning assumptions.
Operator:
Our next question come from the line of Brett Simpson of Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Thanks so much. Cristiano, I wanted to ask about the state of the Android market. There seems to be a sort of consistent structural share loss here. And I guess, even going back pre-COVID, Apple has been growing their business since COVID and Android just seems to keep losing share. So what do you think is going on? And how much of the structural decline in Android, do you think, is the secondhand iPhone market? And then I don't know whether you can size this, how big do you think the secondhand market is and how it's affecting Android? And what do you think the Android value chain is going to do to reboot their business?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. No, it's a great question, and there are a number of things to unpack. So first, I just want to go back a little bit in recent history. I think there was an addressable market for premium devices, and to some extent, premium and high-tier devices that became available as Huawei declined in share. And the reality, Apple pick a significant amount of their share. We did as well, I think. So our competition, I think everyone grew as the expense of the market. And I think that is resulting to a much larger -- you look at that Huawei Android as a net loss of Android, and that's for the areas that Apple gained share. The market is smaller and those -- even the component of hand-me-down phones, it's accounted in our planning of a smaller market. I think that's a -- that's where we are until we go to the next upgrade cycle, cyclical business. But our position in Android has improved, and I think if you look of our trajectory actually on the smaller Android market, we've been gaining share and focus on the value share of the market with concentration in the high and the middle tier.
Brett Simpson:
Do you think the secondhand market is growing structurally? I mean, just to understand the dynamics because some of the data we've seen, it would suggest that this is starting to have an impact on the Android volumes.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Brett, it's Akash. So I divide this into two parts. I think there's a second hand market that has been around for a long period of time in emerging markets as a hand-me-down device, and so that obviously still exists. There has been a little bit of a change at the top with the refurbished phone market, and so that's something that we're definitely closely watching and definitely contemplated in our numbers at this point.
Operator:
Our last question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Akash, sometimes you give us more indications of future quarters and I wanted to ask about QTL, QCT for the September quarter. Can you provide us some comments on your expectations?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. For QTL, typically, the market size is relatively flat between the June and the September quarter. There is a slight change in the market and our revenue is relatively flat as well, so you should think of that as a proxy based on historical trend. There isn't something specific going on this year that I'd say is different than last year, pending a recovery in the market. From a QCT perspective, on the fourth quarter, we typically have seasonality, seasonal growth. And what I said in my prepared remarks is that we expect muted seasonality this year because of all the factors that we've been discussing on this call and have been outlined in the prepared remarks as well. So that would be a framework to come up with number for September. And then obviously, as we go from there, you go into holiday season, that's typically a strong quarter for us and we would realize benefits as we go there.
Tal Liani:
Got it. And what's normal seasonality for Q4 for QCT? When you say muted, what's your benchmark?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, I would say if you look at last year, you would probably come with a number that would be normal, and we don't expect to be close to that. We'll see a lot of different factors. We don't have, to be honest, that clear insight into quarters at this point to give a forecast. So if you can wait for the next call, we'll definitely be updating you on that.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before ending the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Thank you so much for listening to our call. Here's the summary. Like from our perspective, while the market conditions remain challenging, we're very confident to reach our Q3 estimates at this point. We're taking action where we can control as we navigate the near-term headwinds, but it's -- most important, we'll continue to execute on our strategy. We like our strategy. I think we're investing in the right technologies for growth and diversification, especially in the IoT and Auto. I feel we have a very competitive road map, so we're well positioned to benefit when the market returns to growth. And I think the last comment is we are going to become very relevant in AI. As you look at the speed of new models appearing new companies investing, new use cases, the ability to run those things locally. I talk about having ability to run 10 billion parameter models on the phone without compromising battery life and be able to demonstrate that very shortly in this year, and you can see how that creates an even larger opportunity for us in Automotive as well the entering of next-generation personal computing. So excited about that, we'll continue to invest in this area. In summary, we're very focused on our long-term success and we're steadfast in our commitment to drive maximum value for our stakeholders. And I want to thank all the employees for their dedication and contributions to Qualcomm and also our many partners and suppliers. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, February 2, 2023. The playback number for today’s call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13735295. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. . During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, to comments from Qualcomm’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. In fiscal Q1, despite the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and short-term challenges impacting the semiconductor industry, we delivered revenues of $9.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $2.37 per share, including year-over-year growth in QCT Automotive in IoT. QCT revenues of $7.9 billion were down 11% year-over-year as a result of weaker handset demand and inventory drawdown. In the current quarter, combined auto and IoT revenues represent 27% of total QCT revenues, reflecting continued progress on revenue diversification. QTL delivered $1.5 billion in revenues within Q1. As the handset industry continues to experience reduced demand, we are now expecting elevated channel inventory levels to persist at least through the first half of calendar ‘23. In addition, multiple end industries within IoT are also experiencing weaker-than-expected demand and elevated inventory levels. Given the current macroeconomic and demand environment, we’re implementing further spending reductions and streamlining operations without losing sight of the significant growth and diversification opportunities ahead. This is consistent with our commitment to actively manage operating expenses as indicated during our last earnings call. Combined with the actions we have already taken in the quarter, we expect to reduce non-GAAP operating expenses by approximately 5% relative to a run rate exiting fiscal ‘22. Despite near-term headwinds, our long-term growth opportunities remain unchanged. Our leading technologies, such as advanced wireless connectivity; high-performance, low-power compute and on-device intelligence are enabling the ongoing trends of digital transformation across industries. From a product and technology perspective, we believe we are in the strongest position in our history. Our strategy is working, and we remain focused on expanding our addressable market to approximately $700 billion in the next decade and firmly establishing Qualcomm as the connected processor company for the intelligent edge. I will now provide key highlights from across our business. In automotive, the industry continues to evolve at an unprecedented rate, driven by the adoption of digital technologies. The software-defined vehicle is at the core of this transformation, offering automakers a significant opportunity to deliver enhanced connectivity, improved safety and security features, increased levels of autonomy as well as new business models and revenue streams. We believe the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is the industry’s preferred purpose-built platform to help drive this innovation for the next generation of vehicles. At CES, we announced Snapdragon Ride Flex, which enables digital cockpit, advanced driver assistance systems and automated driving functions to coexist on a single SoC, a first for the automotive industry. Automakers and Tier 1s can now scale a unified center compute and software-defined vehicle architecture across their portfolio. We also demonstrated our expansion into two-wheelers with the latest infotainment and cloud connected digital services to enhance safety and deliver a more personal experience for riders. Our solutions also enable OEMs and fleet providers to deliver over-the-air updates, subscription services, remote diagnostics, geofencing, theft protection and more. We are very proud of the progress we have made in automotive, and we believe that we are the best positioned technology partner to help drive this industry into the future. In handsets, our recently announced Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 mobile platform begins a new era of AI accelerated experiences for smartphones. The Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 includes our first ever AI-powered camera processor that enables real-time semantic segmentation for photos and videos. A dedicated 5G AI processor that can enhance 5G data speeds, coverage, latency and battery life and an updated general purpose AI engine with a larger tensor accelerator for increased formats. We are also pleased to enable the world’s first satellite-based two-way capable messaging solution for Android smartphones. Snapdragon Satellite will provide global connectivity for messaging, utilizing Iridium’s weather-resilient L-band spectrum and will initially be available on next-generation premium smartphones using Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 within the second half of 2023. Yesterday, I was pleased to join Samsung’s Unpacked event, where they launched the Galaxy S23 family of smartphones, powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 mobile platform for Galaxy globally. This premium platform features accelerated performance and unique customizations made possible by our expanded strategic partnership with Samsung. The Galaxy S23 represents the first smartphone announced from this partnership. In IoT, which is poised to become our largest addressable market, our revenue stream spans across three categories
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. And thank you for joining our call during a busy earnings week. I’ll start with our first fiscal quarter results. Consistent with our prior guidance, we delivered revenues of $9.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.37. QTL recorded revenues of $1.52 billion and EBT margin of 73%, reflecting slightly lower global handset units. QCT revenues were $7.9 billion and EBT margin was at the high end of our guidance range at 28%. Handset revenues of $5.8 billion reflected the impact of industry-wide headwinds we had previously communicated. IoT revenues were up 7% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, mainly driven by growth from our edge networking products. Automotive continued its momentum with year-over-year revenue growth of 58% to $456 million, driven by the adoption of our Snapdragon Digital Chassis. Non-GAAP operating expenses were lower than our guidance, decreasing 6% sequentially, which includes the benefit of certain cost actions we outlined last quarter. Our balance sheet remains strong with $8.2 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of the first fiscal quarter. In addition, we expect to receive a majority of the transaction price of $1.5 billion on the completion of the sale of Veoneer’s active safety business to Magna by SSW Partners. We expect the transaction to close by the end of the fiscal year. We returned $2.1 billion to stockholders, including $1.3 billion in stock repurchases and $842 million in dividends, in line with our capital return program. Lastly, our GAAP EPS results included a $0.10 benefit from the U.S. tax requirement to capitalize and amortize R&D expenses. This benefit is excluded from our non-GAAP results. Before turning to second fiscal quarter guidance, I’ll provide an update on short-term cyclical headwinds facing the semiconductor industry. The environment continues to be dynamic with challenging macroeconomic conditions and COVID headwinds in China, driving industry-wide demand weakness. Given this uncertainty, we are incorporating a negative bias for 3G, 4G, 5G handset volumes for calendar ‘23 relative to calendar ‘22. The impact of broadening demand weakness across handsets and IoT products and the easing of supply constraints has contributed to elevated channel inventory. Based on our current assessment, we expect QCT customers to continue to draw down on inventory, at least through the second and third fiscal quarters. At this point, we’re optimistic that the demand and channel inventory may normalize during the second half of the calendar year, and we remain in a strong position to take advantage of the opportunity when it occurs. While our business is not immune to the macro environment, we are confident in our ability to navigate this landscape. As Cristiano summarized, we have continued to expand our actions to reduce operating expenses beyond the initiatives we previously outlined. While we are reducing spending on handsets and SG&A, we continue to fund our diversification investments in IoT and automotive, which is consistent with our long-term strategy for the business. The initial benefit of these actions is reflected in our fiscal first quarter results and second quarter guidance. Overall, we are targeting a combined 5% reduction in non-GAAP operating expenses relative to our fiscal ‘22 exit rate. Turning to guidance for the second fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $8.7 billion to $9.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.05 to $2.25. The midpoint of our guidance includes an assumption of lower end market demand and the continued drawdown of channel inventory. We are forecasting QTL revenues of $1.25 billion to $1.45 billion and EBT margins of 66% to 70%, reflecting a sequential seasonal decline in handset units. In QCT, we estimate revenues of $7.4 billion to $8 billion and EBT margins of 25% to 27%. We expect handsets and automotive revenue to be flat sequentially, offset by a reduction in IoT revenues due to the factors I just outlined. We estimate non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $2.25 billion. This reflects the typical calendar year increases for certain employee-related costs, offset by the savings from our cost reduction actions. In closing, with the uncertainty of the macro environment, we will remain focused on operating discipline and managing the factors we control. Our diversification strategy is on track, as evidenced by our design win pipeline across IoT and automotive customers. In addition, our long-term secular growth opportunity remains unchanged. We are focused on executing on our strategy, enabled by our leading technology road map and best-in-class product portfolio. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question is coming from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
I have a couple. Maybe for the first one, I hear you on the inventory digestion. But maybe one of the other concerns that investors have had for this year on the handset side is sort of delay, if any, in terms of launch plans from the Android OEMs about sort of related to their new handsets or any changes in their pricing strategy and sort of the chips that they intend to then sort of prioritize or sort of the high-end versus maiden chips that they want to prioritize to achieve those pricing strategies in the market. Maybe if you can give us some color in terms of what you’re seeing from the OEMs on that front outside of the inventory digestion? And I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Samik, it’s Akash. Really from a handset launch perspective, especially in the tiers that Qualcomm is very strong at, we’re continuing to see our customers launch on time. So, you’re -- we obviously saw the Samsung launch happen yesterday. Our Chinese OEMs are also planning to launch their devices on schedule. So, no change from our perspective on launch timing in the key tiers for us.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay. And maybe just for my follow-up. On the IoT side, you mentioned the weakness that you’re seeing in that broader market, but maybe if you can delve into that a bit more. Are you seeing sort of more weakness just sort of being higher on consumer IoT, or is that more worsening across industrial IoT and edge networking as well? And if you can quantify what -- how to think about the edge networking opportunity relative to India in 2023? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So from an IoT perspective, it’s very similar impact to other parts of the industry. It’s really the short-term cyclical headwinds that the entire industry is seeing. We’re seeing a factor of that as well. And so, it’s two parts. It’s demand weakness and then OEM inventory drawdown, both of those factors similar to handsets. And within our product line, we’re seeing -- we obviously started seeing impact in consumer IoT that we’ve talked about previously, and we’ve seen that expand a bit into industrial and edge networking. But, as we look at these -- we see these are short-term factors that are clearly kind of driven by the cyclicality in the industry that’s going on. But, when you step back and look at our design win pipeline, it still reflects the opportunity in front of us.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Samik, just to add one thing, you ask about India. Yes. We -- as we said in our prepared remarks, we’re excited about that opportunity. It’s probably likely it’s going to be one of the largest opportunity for 5G as fixed wireless access. And as we mentioned, the opportunity will be across all the operators to connect in the order of 100 million homes. So, that could be very significant. What we like about it is that millimeter wave has been utilized as well for fixed wireless access. So, that’s a great opportunity for us.
Operator:
Our next question is from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
Matt Ramsay:
Akash, I wanted to ask a little bit of question -- a couple of questions about margins. You talked pretty explicitly about OpEx, but we’re seeing no surprise maybe with the dynamics in the macro and the inventory correction that the QCT operating margins have come down some. And maybe you could just walk us through the puts and takes on margins from here. Is March the bottom? And how should we model sort of gross margin in QCT as we go forward, given the mix of the segments might be a bit different during this inventory correction? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Matt. So, let me address it in two parts. First, from a gross margin perspective, we did slightly better than our expectations and the results that we announced for the first fiscal quarter. And then, we’re guiding similar margins into the second quarter. So, from a gross margin perspective, we are holding well. And even in the challenging environment we’re in, we are doing a relatively good job. As we’ve said in the past, we always expected that once we get to supply constraints, there’ll be some gross margin pressure, and that was factored into our long-term target. So, there’s really nothing new that we haven’t told you before on gross margin side. On operating leverage, which is really the second driver here is the impact that we’re seeing from the inventory drawdown reduces the operating leverage in the business temporarily in the short term. And so, you’re seeing the operating margins being impacted by that. But kind of once you step back and abstract out of that change, you should see the operating margin more in line with your expectations.
Operator:
Next question is from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley:
Cristiano, while Qualcomm has done really well in premium tier Android, with supply easing, what’s the appetite to maybe go down to into the mid- to high-tier Android? And if so, what would be time line to maybe take share if you have interest in that market?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mike, for your question. Actually, it’s a great question. What we have seen in this current demand environment as well as the inventory drawdown, actually, the premium tier had done a little bit better than what the mass tier has been impacted, I think, consistent with our expectations. I think you saw that in some of our customers’ earnings call as well. However, we expect that as you get to the second half of the calendar year, we hope that the inventory drawdown situation improves as well as China reopens. And we will see an opportunity for the mid and the low tier to come back and our design traction is good in those tiers with the OEMs, and we’ll see what happens. So, we’re not -- we’re not factoring that better second half yet in our planning assumptions. I think we’re waiting. But, I think there’s optimism just because of the inventory drawdown as well as China reopening.
Operator:
Our next question from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I have two. For the first one, Akash, you’re talking about the inventory correction, March as well as in June. You’re guiding handsets kind of flattish in March. I was wondering if there’s any sort of like preliminary color you could give us on the June quarter trajectory. Like, do you guys think March quarter in general is the bottom? And then, I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, the way, Stacy, we are thinking about kind of how things play out is the short-term headwinds, cyclical headwinds that we’re seeing that uncertainty remains, and we’re seeing that in handsets and IoT, so both from a demand perspective and inventory drawdown. So, we expect our QCT customers to be cautious. And until there is more visibility, they’re going to be careful with additional purchases and draw down inventory. So, that’s what’s factored in our updated guidance. When we look at the second half of the year, as Cristiano said, we’re pretty optimistic that demand and channel inventory normalizes. And that allows us to take advantage of the growth from that point on, given our strong position when the dynamic occurs. In terms of bottom, the way I think about it is we’re going to see impact for the March and June quarters, and I think there’s an opportunity from that point on as we grow in the second half of the year.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. If I could ask a quick follow-up. In your Q, you talked about you had a $344 million tailwind from higher average selling price year-over-year in the quarter, and that was for the overall chip segment. But you used to give that number strictly for handsets. Can you give us some feeling for how pricing has been trending in the handset business relative to that overall benefit you see in QCT?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, if you think about pricing in the handset business, it’s usually a function of two things. First is within a given year more capabilities being added to the device, especially on the application processor side. And so, you’ve seen us benefit significantly from that over the last three years. And as we look forward, we are continuing to see demand for additional functionality. So, that’s kind of tier for tier improvement opportunity for us and for the overall industry. And then, the second factor is mix within peers and that, of course, changes across quarters. And so, that goes up and down based on what sells through in that quarter and which customer it is. But that’s more timing versus kind of a fundamental trend of revenue growth.
Operator:
Our next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
I want to focus on the handset guidance for the next quarter fiscal 2Q being flat sequentially. Can you just talk about the puts and takes that are getting you to flat? And Akash, last quarter, you gave a framework about, I think, $2 billion of inventory burn headwind. I just wonder if you were indeed successful in getting halfway through that, or is the issue now pervasive because just demand has dropped? So just the puts and takes on that would be helpful.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Ross. So, from a handset perspective, what we’ve assumed in the March quarter is a standard seasonal decline, and I said this in my prepared remarks from December into March. So, it’s what you would expect seasonally happens once you go between the quarters. And so, that’s what we’ve assumed, and that informs our QTL forecast for the quarter as well.
Ross Seymore:
But you guided flat sequentially. So, I’m just trying to -- from December to March, are you saying it would be down, except for now it’s going to be flat because you’re burning less inventory?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Okay. So I understand the confusion. So, the -- what I talked about was the total handset market, which we are expecting to be down quarter-over-quarter, consistent with seasonal trend. What we said was flat was QCT handset revenue, we expect to be flat. And of course, that’s a function of mix of chips and also inventory drawdown differences.
Operator:
The next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
Joe Moore:
Going back to how much inventory you’re reducing in handsets. What’s your visibility into that? And I mean, are you -- are there certain customers where they sort of didn’t take anything in December and so you know that they’re coming back? Just can you give us a sense of are you sure this is all inventory reduction and not end demand?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Joe, we have a sense of kind of what sell-through the OEMs had because of our QTL business. And then we have the ability to compare that with what’s happening in QCT. So, we do have a pretty good sense of what is happening in the industry. And we’re confident that a large portion of it was inventory drawdown.
Joe Moore:
Okay. Great. And then specific to the China region, I think you mentioned some new launches in the March quarter, but it sounds like the situation there is pretty challenging in terms of visibility. Like, is China different than the rest of the world for you right now?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. The uncertainty in China definitely reflects in our customers’ purchases, and that’s what we talked about that we expect until there is more visibility, we expect customers to be careful with additional purchases and draw down on inventory. But in terms of handset launches, we are still seeing the OEMs being extremely active and planning handset launches on the regular cadence and driving functionality within the market.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Let me just add one thing. If you look at the China handset market, the majority of sales, even though they have a big online component, the majority of sales is offline market. So, as we have -- saw, with the lockdowns and the COVID situation, there was a big impact in the handset market in China. Common sense, and that’s how some of our OEMs are also thinking is as the COVID gets behind China, you should expect the markets to open up. And what we have visibility right now is a lot of the new device launches preparing for that and some of it, which is going to be announced at Mobile World Congress. It’s too early to draw a conclusion. So, let’s go back to that conversation that there is optimism that second half could be better.
Operator:
Our next question is from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.
Blayne Curtis:
I guess kind of a combination of the two. I’m curious inventories are up on your balance sheet, Akash. Just kind of curious whether you need to work those down as well? And then I guess for Cristiano, just going back to a prior question, on the midrange. I’m curious about the pricing environment. I mean, MediaTek is having a tough first half as well. Can you just comment on what that environment is? And then, your kind of just thoughts in general about pricing and moving for share within the modem business? You did a good job navigating at the high end during the shortages, but just kind of curious, favoring profitability versus share? What are your thoughts? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Blayne, it’s Akash. I’ll take the first one, and then I think Cristiano will take the second one. From an inventory perspective on our balance sheet, you’re seeing something similar to what you’re seeing on our peers and customers as well, the same set of drivers. As you know well, for leading-edge nodes, which is where we operate, the lead time is 5 to 6 months now for the foundry and chip production. And so, we were clearly starting wafers based on a different market expectation and before the inventory drawdown. So, we’ve calibrated that down. We are working with our suppliers and over time, we’ll get to a reasonable place. It is important to also remember that when you look at three years ago versus today, we’ve grown tremendously in terms of revenue and scale across our businesses. And then also supply has caught up to demand. So those two factors would naturally increase inventory anyways. But the remaining we’ll be working through, as I mentioned.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi Blayne, Cristiano, I’m going to take your second question. Look, it’s probably clear, both us and the other chip supplier in the handset market, dealing with the same challenges, which is the demand weakness and inventory drawdown. In the areas that we have more competition, which is mid- to low-tier, we also saw that’s the one that’s most impacted by the demand weakness. So, as we think about the market open up, our view is we’re very well positioned from a competitive perspective. We have visibility into the design pipeline. And we will remain disciplined on pricing, which is consistent to how we have behaved over the past few years.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
Brett Simpson:
I wanted to ask about fixed-wireless access. And I think you talked about in the prepared remarks that you saw a big opportunity in India playing out over the next couple of years with fixed wireless access. But can you maybe just talk a bit about the ASPs that Qualcomm gets from a typical device in fixed wireless access? And how do you see the business evolving in the next couple of years as you start to attack that in the opportunity and you can see some of the success you’ve had in the U.S. so far here and maybe other markets? Just maybe help us understand how this really plays out for Qualcomm? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
So, I will start by saying that we really like that market, and we think the market is a long-term market. I think the -- it’s clear to see now that home broadband, for the first time, you have a wireless solution that can augment fiber. And it’s really about fiber and 5G, you don’t find cable everywhere outside the United States. So, we think that’s an opportunity for both, developed and developing economies. And of course, if you look at the size of India, that’s why we’re very excited about it. We saw the auctions. The investments are being put into place by the operators and infrastructure. When we sell into that market, I think while I can’t really talk about the ASP, I tell you, it’s accretive in margins to our handset business, especially because we have a lot of content, in many cases, we also have the ability to do on Wi-Fi access point in addition of the 5G modem. And we are very well positioned with millimeter wave technology.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Did you say -- sorry, Cristiano, did you say you booked that in mobile systems, or is that an IoT business?
Akash Palkhiwala:
It’s within the IoT revenue stream.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Okay. Fantastic.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. What I mentioned is it’s compared to our handset business, the ASPs that we have for fixed wireless is really accretive to margins. That’s what I meant, but it’s in the IoT business.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Maybe just a follow-up. I wanted to ask about the recent U.S. restrictions around Huawei. Are you seeing any impact in this at all? I mean, it looks like Huawei has been shipping quite a lot of 4G devices recently. Have you been shipping components to Huawei? And if so, can you maybe just help with the impact of the latest restrictions on the business? Thank you.
Alex Rogers:
Yes. So, this is Alex. I’ll start, and then maybe Akash can fill in if he has anything further. So, I don’t think it’s fair to characterize it as the latest restrictions on Huawei. What we’ve seen are news reports to the effect that Commerce is considering not issuing new licenses to Huawei. And we haven’t heard anything from Commerce itself. Qualcomm has a set of licenses that we’ve had for a while that basically allow us to ship 4G and other chipsets, including Wi-Fi to Huawei. Those licenses were she goes Commerce reached the determination that they don’t affect national security issues. Those will continue for some number of years. And so, within the scope of those licenses, we don’t see an impact. Akash, anything else?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Nothing to add. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
Two questions. Inventory days doubled and it has been going up every quarter in the last 4 quarters, 5 quarters. Can you talk about inventory days? And what is it composed of if there is any anything special we need to discuss just because of the high value? And second, more qualitatively, I want to understand what is the lag or what should be the lag on sales in China from inventory levels versus demand recovery as China reopens? Meaning, from the time that China reopens and there is demand for handsets, how should we think about the lag from that to being translated into demand from you?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So Tal, it’s Akash. From our perspective, the way we’re about our inventory -- and it’s really not necessarily inventory, it’s really wafer starts. What we would like to do is, given the lead time of 5 to 6 months, start wafers, 5 to 6 months in advance, plus some room on top for mix changes that might happen during the period. So, that’s the framework under which we operate. You’re right that our current inventory balance is higher than where we’d like it to be. And earlier in the call, I went through the rationale as to how we ended up there. So, we’re working with our suppliers, and we’ll kind of normalize it over time, and we feel confident we can do that. On your second question on the lag, I think that’s already embedded in the way we provided our view into the future, which is -- as we expect inventory drawdowns to happen through the March quarter then going into the June quarter, but as we go into the second half of the calendar year, as demand comes back and normalizes, we have the ability to benefit from it.
Tal Liani:
Got it. Last question. I’m getting a repeated question on your licensing part. I saw today the -- what you said about Nokia and Ericsson. Can you discuss licensing portion in terms of any forthcoming discussions, negotiations or anything that we need to be aware of, or is it as stable as it was the previous year?
Alex Rogers:
So, this is Alex. It really is just as stable as we’ve described previously. All the major OEMs are signed up long term. No other new renewals are coming up until fiscal year ‘25. The Nokia license basically split into a couple of parts, infrastructure to Nokia handset to Microsoft. Those licenses as they evolved, were not -- no longer material to the QTL business. So, that’s pretty much where things stand.
Operator:
Your next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.
C.J. Muse:
Two if I may. The first one, if you look back three months ago, you talked about kind of a two-quarter correction. Now it’s at least three. And so just curious to level set kind of how things have transpired over the last three months. How much of the change statement here is just end demand declining versus your customers working down Qualcomm semiconductor inventory? And then, the second question, you kind of spoke to it earlier around building inventory, and would love to hear your thoughts around kind of wafer start volume commitments. How to think about the impact to QCT margins in calendar ‘23? And is there any risk of a onetime catch-up payment on reduced volumes? Thanks so much.
Akash Palkhiwala:
So, on your first question, C.J., from an inventory perspective, there are a couple of drivers to it. So, first is the weaker market; second is inventory drawdown. And both are significant factors. And then the third, I’d say, is we’ve also seen IoT having the same sum of the characteristics. And so, you’re seeing a combination of those factors impacting the time period for which the drawdown lasts. Again, as we look at it, this is a shorter-term thing that when you step back, it doesn’t necessarily -- the drawdown doesn’t impact the strength of the business. And so, as the recovery happens, we’ll be in a position to benefit from it. Can you repeat your second question? I’m not sure I understood it well.
C.J. Muse:
Yes, sure. As it relates to your wafer commitments, particularly with TSMC, if you’re taking down the volume purchases, any risk to pricing and/or catch-up payments?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, a lot of our commitments were more in the form of prepayments rather than volume commitments. So, that just means you get the prepayment back over a longer period of time. But we’re navigating through those and nothing to report at this point.
Operator:
That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Maybe just to summarize, I think how we see the earnings call. I think beyond 2023 for Qualcomm, we see many of our growth initiatives, increasing scale, including auto, PCs, XR and 5G FWA, we’ll talk about it in industrial. When we look at the current environment, we remain very confident in our ability to navigate the economic downturn and the short-term challenges, given our strong balance sheet and consistent history of strong free cash flow generation. As you can see, we’re taking action where we can control, and we believe we’ll emerge even stronger as we continue to execute on our strategy. We’re focused on Qualcomm’s long-term success, and we’ll work diligently to continue to drive growth, especially auto and IoT, diversify the company and deliver value for stockholders. I’d like to thank all the employees for the dedication and contributions to Qualcomm as well as our many partners and suppliers, and thank you all for attending the call. I know it was a popular earnings day today. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 2, 2022. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13733389. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan :
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon :
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Fiscal '22 has been a strong year for Qualcomm with record performance in our chipset business and a strong execution of our diversification and growth strategy. We remain focused on continuing to transition Qualcomm from a wireless communications company for the mobile industry to a connected processor company for the intelligent edge. We're driving the transformation of industries and growth of the digital economy by powering the billions of smart connected devices at the edge, utilizing our One Technology Roadmap with leadership in wireless connectivity, high-performance, low-power computing and on-device AI. While the semiconductor industry is being impacted by significant macroeconomic headwinds and other short-term challenges from which we're not immune, the fundamentals of Qualcomm's growth drivers remain unchanged with significant opportunities in the coming years. In Q4, we delivered record revenues of $11.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.13, reflecting record revenues in our chipset business and solid performance in licensing. QCT revenues of $9.9 billion were up 28% year-over-year, including record performance across handsets, automotive and IoT. Fiscal '22 revenues of $44 billion were up 32% year-over-year. QCT, the growth engine of the company, contributed revenues of $37.7 billion, up 39% year-over-year with combined fiscal year IoT and automotive revenues growing 38% year-over-year. QTL delivered $6.4 billion in revenues. Let me now summarize a few highlights from the fiscal year. In handsets, we entered into a new multiyear agreement with Samsung, expanding the use of Snapdragon platforms for future premium Samsung Galaxy products globally. We also executed on the changing OEM landscape opportunity, securing key premium and high-tier design wins with our customers in China. Snapdragon has become synonymous with premium mobile experiences worldwide. In automotive, our design win pipeline across connectivity, digital cockpit and ADAS is now greater than $30 billion. We also completed the acquisition of Arriver, which enhances our ability to deliver open, scalable, fully integrated and competitive ADAS solutions. Importantly, we have firmly established ourselves as a key strategic and technology partner for the automotive industry, and the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is now the preferred platform for next-generation vehicles. In IoT, we extended our chipset road map to capitalize on trends driving the connected intelligent edge, notably, the conversions of personal computing with mobile; the intersection of physical and virtual spaces; the enterprise transformation of the home; the expansion of broadband; and the ongoing digital transformation across many verticals. In consumer IoT, we increased OEM design wins in ecosystem traction for our next-generation Windows on Snapdragon solutions, which incorporate our custom CPUs. The game-changing AI capabilities of our Snapdragon compute platform recently demonstrated at Microsoft Ignite 2022 developer conference will redefine user experiences on Windows 11. We also announced a multiyear agreement with Meta to develop premium virtual reality and mixed reality experiences starting with next-generation devices powered by custom Snapdragon XR platforms. We continue to be a leading platform provider for virtually all commercially available and announced XR devices and remain well positioned as XR develops. In edge networking IoT, we have seen positive share traction related to the rollout of WiFi 6 and 6E solutions for enterprise access points and retail mesh systems. And we are seeing strong interest in new design wins for our WiFi 7 solutions. Additionally, our 5G fixed wireless access broadband solution is now the industry's platform of choice for wireless fiber globally. In industrial IoT, we built a strong foundation for growth with significant wins across industrial handhelds, robotics, payments, gateways, smart camera, enterprise collaboration and edge processing. The growing diversity of these end markets position us well to benefit from durable and margin-accretive growth opportunities in industrial. In licensing, we extended our agreement with Samsung through 2030, establishing an important benchmark for the long term and for future renegotiations. In addition to delivering record financial results, our fiscal '22 achievements validate our strategy and have provided a strong foundation for long-term growth. As we look to fiscal '23, further deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and extended China COVID restrictions have resulted in demand weakness and temporary elevated channel inventory across the industry. As good stewards of capital for our stockholders, we are committed to managing our business in light of the current environment without losing sight of the significant growth opportunities ahead. To that end, we're being very disciplined in managing operating expenses while optimizing our R&D investments to prudently focus on growth within automotive and IoT. We have already implemented a hiring freeze, and we have planned spending reductions across our mature product areas and SG&A to fund our diversification. We are continuing to evaluate additional actions, and we are prepared and committed to making further reductions to operating expenses as needed. It is important to note that the current inventory drawdown is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying growth and earnings power of the company in the long term. And we are in a strong position to manage the near-term headwinds. Beyond 2023, we see a number of our strategic growth initiatives increasing in scale. We anticipate automotive revenues will grow consistent with our auto Investor Day projections as the design win pipeline materializes. We expect to see an inflection point in Windows on Snapdragon PCs in 2024 based on a significant number of design wins to date. XR is just at the beginning of its growth curve. 5G wireless fiber presents significant opportunities in regions such as India and other developing economies that have just started to deploy 5G networks. Lastly, the digital transformation of industries will continue to gain momentum, driving connectivity and intelligence at the edge. In summary, despite the short-term challenges, the fundamentals of our growth strategy remain intact. We remain confident in our ability to navigate the current economic downturn given our strong balance sheet and consistent history of strong free cash flow generation. We will continue to focus on stockholder returns and executing on our ongoing diversification opportunities. The powerful secular tailwinds driving multiyear demand for our One Technology Roadmap across multiple end industries are unchanged and resilient. We remain on track to expand our addressable market by more than 7x to approximately $700 billion in the next decade and firmly establish Qualcomm as the connected processor company for the intelligent edge. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. In a challenging macroeconomic environment, we are pleased to announce strong fourth quarter results with record revenues of $11.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.13. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 22% and 23% in revenues and EPS, respectively, driven by strength across QCT. This was also a record quarter for QCT revenues of $9.9 billion and EBT margin of 34%, both above the midpoint of our guidance with year-over-year revenue growth of 28% and EBT dollar growth of 37%. Handset revenues of $6.6 billion increased 40% versus the year ago quarter on strength of our Snapdragon product portfolio across premium and high tiers. As expected, RF front-end revenues of $992 million were impacted by the continued weakness of the handset market and channel inventory. IoT revenues were up 24% year-over-year to $1.9 billion on growth across edge networking and industrial IoT. Automotive revenues of $427 million grew 58% versus the year ago quarter due to the broad adoption of our Snapdragon Digital Chassis. QTL revenues of $1.4 billion and EBT margin of 69% reflected the impact of lower handset units relative to our expectations at the beginning of the quarter. Turning to fiscal '22 results. We delivered record non-GAAP revenues and EPS with year-over-year growth of 32% and 47%, respectively. In addition, looking over the past 2 fiscal years, we've more than doubled our non-GAAP revenues and almost tripled non-GAAP EPS from fiscal '20 to fiscal '22, underscoring the strong momentum across our businesses. In QCT, we had records across all revenue streams as well as approximately 500 basis points of EBT margin expansion from 29% in fiscal '21 to 34% in fiscal '22. We are pleased with the continued success of our diversification strategy as we delivered year-over-year combined revenue growth of 38% across IoT and automotive. Lastly, we continue to be disciplined in delivering long-term stockholder value. We executed on our capital return commitments, returning 93% of our free cash flow, including $3.2 billion in dividends and $3.1 billion in stock repurchases. Before turning to first quarter guidance, I'll address how our near-term financial outlook is impacted by the challenges facing the semiconductor industry. As we communicated during the last earnings call, we had started to see a deceleration in demand for mass-tier handsets in consumer IoT. Since then, the further deterioration of macroeconomic environment and sustained COVID restrictions in China have led to broad-based demand weakening across tiers and regions. Given these considerations, we now project 3G, 4G, 5G handset volumes in calendar 2022 to decline by low double digits on a year-over-year basis, including 600 million to 650 million 5G handsets. This rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints across the semiconductor industry have resulted in elevated channel inventory. Due to these elevated levels, our largest customers have made significant changes to their inventory policy. They are now drawing down on their inventory, negatively impacting our near-term financial performance. Based on our current assessment, we estimate that there are roughly 8 to 10 weeks of elevated inventory in the channel. While the environment is very dynamic, based on the information we have today, we believe this may take a couple of quarters to work itself through with more than half of the inventory drawdown completed in the first fiscal quarter. We are confident in our ability to navigate this environment successfully, and we'll continue to monitor inventory levels and order patterns closely. As Cristiano outlined, while we navigate this downturn, we've already implemented specific actions to manage our spending levels, including the hiring freeze and reductions in handsets, other mature product areas and SG&A. We will remain disciplined and be prepared to take further decisive actions on additional reductions to operating expenses if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate. Turning to guidance for the first fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $9.2 billion to $10 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 to $2.45. The midpoint of our guidance includes an estimated impact of approximately $2 billion in revenue and $0.80 in EPS related to the drawdown of channel inventory with the remaining impact primarily due to weaker end-market demand and foreign exchange headwinds. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion and EBT margins of 26% to 28%. Following the record performance in fourth quarter, we expect our handsets and IoT revenue streams to be down sequentially due to the impacts I just described. On a year-over-year basis, we still expect revenue growth across IoT and automotive. We estimate QTL revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion and EBT margins of 71% to 75%. This estimate reflects the updated handset forecast, including a muted seasonal benefit for the holiday quarter and approximately $50 million headwind from foreign exchange on a year-over-year basis. Lastly, we now anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to decrease 3% to 5% sequentially. Before I conclude, I'd like to provide an update on RF front-end revenue stream disclosure and planning assumption for Apple product revenues. We have grown our RF front-end revenues to become the #1 player in handsets due to the breadth and strength of our product portfolio. Looking forward, we expect growth to be driven by our strong design win pipeline for 5G and WiFi 7 platforms across handsets, automotive and IoT. As a result, starting in fiscal '23, we will consolidate RF front-end revenues within handsets, automotive and IoT revenue streams. In addition, we'll continue to provide periodic updates on the combined RF front-end revenues against our Investor Day target. For Apple product revenue, we now expect to have the vast majority of share of 5G modems for the 2023 iPhone launch, up from our previous 20% assumption. Beyond this, there are no changes to our planning assumption, and we are assuming minimal contribution from Apple product revenues in fiscal '25. In closing, while the current backdrop presents near-term headwinds for our industry, we remain confident in our leading technology road map, deep customer relationships and strong balance sheet to help us navigate these challenges and maintain our leadership position. Our diversification strategy and long-term growth opportunities remain intact as we continue to drive our vision to bring cloud connectivity, data processing and artificial intelligence to the edge. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan :
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Matt Ramsay with Cowen and Company.
Matt Ramsay:
I guess my first question, Cristiano, has really 2 parts to it on the smartphone market. No -- I guess you guys were really clear in the prepared script about what's going on with channel inventory with customers and a deterioration of the macro. I guess that's -- maybe the magnitudes are different, but directionally, no big surprise. So I guess the questions are, are you guys seeing the weakness that's been there in global and low mid-tier Android? Are you seeing that worsen? Or are you seeing that weakness now moving into the high-end, premium tier? And the second part is we get questions from investors about when things do weaken, do some of the ASP -- really strong performance that you guys have had in your wireless business over the last year or 2. Do those ASPs starting rolling over? Or is this a unit dynamic and you're seeing ASPs hold up well?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Matt. This is Cristiano. I'm going to start the question. I'm going to ask Akash to also add some data. So what we have seen in the smartphone markets, and I think we tried to detail as much as we as we can in the script, it's really -- there is a combination of the weakness of demand, which is related to basically the macroeconomic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China that has kind of singled out the China market has been also down as the major factor. And it's mostly a handset consumer story. The other issue that we've been talking about, and that's the big issue really, is you have a situation that you had a lot of demand and supply-constrained environment. So companies across the board much higher inventory policies. When supply chain got resolved, then you get that with the macroeconomic uncertainty, you have a drawdown and trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint. That is starting to hit the premium tier as well as we -- as customers are basically adjusting their inventory levels on premium tier. However, we actually see as we go to next-generation possibilities for ASP to increase because we're actually increasing processor content, and we're very well positioned for the premium tier. If you take the Apple update, I would say every premium-tier device has Qualcomm content on it. Of course, the best story is Snapdragon across Samsung and our Chinese customers. And the content is increasing. We expect to see ASP going up. Akash, anything you would like to add?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Just maybe quickly, Matt, on your first question. What we saw in the September quarter through our licensee reporting is weakness across tiers and regions. So it was -- it cut across all tiers in that case. And then that's what we are projecting forward in the December quarter as well. And then clearly, on the ASP side, as Cristiano said, the content is increasing and we have opportunity on upside in that case. And also, you've seen us manage through the last couple of years of foundry price increases, and then we'll be able to keep gross margin strong.
Matt Ramsay:
As my follow-up, Akash, last year -- I guess a year ago on the call at the beginning of the fiscal year, you were a different environment, a lot less volatility obviously. But you talked to us about the next fiscal year maybe having 20% or more EPS growth for the company. And you obviously did much better than that, and I think you came in at 47%. A lot of different variables now, the inventory correction, a change and extension of the Apple business. If you have any thoughts there about how we should think about the next fiscal year, we'd really appreciate it.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Matt. So if you look at the first quarter, there are really 2 factors that are kind of inconsistent with current -- recent trend. The first one is this inventory drawdown that we are seeing in the quarter. Impact of that is approximately $0.80 within the quarter. And that's really the primary impact. Of course, there's a little bit of impact that also comes in from the weaker market environment as well. So when you take that impact in the first quarter projected forward for the rest of the year, we were very clear that the OEM inventory drawdown, we see that as a couple of quarter issue. And it's not something that's a long-term challenge for us. It's a short-term cyclical issue. So that should inform how you project it through the year. And then on the market side, given the uncertainty at this point, our planning assumption is that the weakness in the market lasts through the fiscal year. Clearly, if the market improves, we'll see that as upside. But at this point, we're going to plan based on current scale of the market. So if you take kind of current expectations and apply that framework to the year, that should hopefully inform how we do the forecast for the second quarter and also for the full year.
Operator:
Samik Chatterjee of JP Morgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
I guess I had two as well. And if I can start on IoT, so smartphone. I guess, Akash, you mentioned smart IoT revenues as well moderating sequentially. And I wanted to see if you can now provide a bit more color. You've broken out the sort of IoT business previously into consumer, industrial and edge networking, calling it roughly sort of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. Now as we start to sort of see some moderation there, can you now talk about the trends in terms of the different sort of subsegments there? And where are you seeing more resilience versus sort of maybe more weakness? And how should we really be sort of projecting that forward? And I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Samik. So on IoT, we're obviously pretty happy with the way that business has played out for us. So we've gone from $3 billion in fiscal '20 to $7 billion, $6.9 billion in '22. And then the quarter we reported was a record quarter for IoT at $1.9 billion of revenue. So pretty happy with how the business is doing. Now in terms of the macro environment impacting the IoT market overall, and it's less about Qualcomm, it's about the overall macro environment. We're definitely seeing the impact of that on consumer and in some ways synonymous with handsets. Edge networking is holding for us. And we're seeing some minor pockets of weakness in industrial. But overall, I think when you kind of step back and look at where our IoT opportunity exists, for us, it's about digital transformation and about connecting everything to the cloud. And our technology portfolio is perfectly suited to enable various industries to do that. So we feel pretty optimistic longer term.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay. Okay. And for my follow-up, I mean, I think Cristiano and Akash both sort of talked about the content opportunity in -- around Snapdragon and even sort of around fiscal '23 in the handset market. A lot of the pushback that we get from investors around that could really drive out, particularly as you think about a weaker macro setup, is OEMs opting to use sort of previous generation Snapdragon chipsets and continue to sort of prioritize price in the market to make it much more affordable for consumers to buy smartphones to -- as to trigger sort of volumes or help volumes in the market. I mean, when you think about sort of the fiscal '23, what are your planning assumptions when it comes to content gains or market share gains and how confident a few of OEMs not sort of sticking to prior generation chips just to be able to optimize the price/cost equation here?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question, Samik. Let me start by giving you a direct answer. The design activity we have for next-generation Snapdragon is not showing that. It's showing that, as we expect in the mobile market, especially on the premium tier, it's about a flagship product every year. Soon, I think we're going to announce our next-generation Snapdragon in our Tech Summit in a couple of weeks, and I think design traction is very, very high. I think what we see right now is, structurally, we're very well positioned. If you look of the agreement we have with Samsung, plus the change of OEM landscape in China and how that positions Snapdragon as the premium and high-tier device, I think we're just going to see the fluctuations on the market size and how we deal in the short term of the inventory. But you should assume that the mobile market is going to continue to do its thing and we're going to have a product cycle transition. We expect in the March quarter also to see the benefit of our increased share of Samsung.
Operator:
Mike Walkley from Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley:
Just more on the planning assumptions for fiscal '23. Do you expect with the macro environment that the handset market shrinks again by double digits from calendar '22 for fiscal '23? And then as a follow-up, I'll just ask them both now. In terms of OpEx with the down sequentially, is this an area that you expect more OpEx cuts as you get into seasonally slower quarters or kind of flattish off this level?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Mike, it's Akash. For fiscal '23, our market assumption is that the kind of the weak market we're seeing in the September-December quarter carries on to the rest of fiscal '23. And so we're not using the first half calendar '22 as the basis but really kind of the current, say, scale of the market carrying forward. So that's our base assumption. And clearly, there is unpredictability and variance around it, but that's the planning assumption we're using for now. On the OpEx side, as we deal with the short-term headwinds, we're clearly taking this is of action on things that we control. As Cristiano mentioned, we've implemented a hiring freeze. We're reducing our spend in mature businesses, including handsets and SG&A. And then we're optimizing our R&D investments to increase focus on automotive and IoT, which is obviously the core of our strategy on diversification. And then finally, the way to think about fiscal '23 OpEx is we expect it will come in below fiscal '22 exit run rate. So we're clearly taking action on OpEx from that perspective.
Operator:
Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I want to ask a little bit about March quarter. So you're saying that the inventory flush lasts a couple of quarters. You said more than half of it is done in December quarter. It seems like there's a good chunk that's still coming in March. But at the same time, you also -- Cristiano just talked about the incremental Samsung volume starting to ramp in March. How do we think about the interplay of those 2 things? Is the Samsung volume enough to offset some of that channel flush that we're still seeing in March? I mean you said big customers are changing some of their inventory plans. Are -- is Samsung one of those big customers? Is it -- it doesn't sound like it's just isolated to China. Just anything you can give us about like some of those drivers, both positive and negative, as they're going to the market would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure, Stacy. It's Akash. So from a March quarter perspective, you're right, the benefit from the Samsung launch for the new phone would be in the -- in kind of the second half of the March quarter. So it comes in towards the end of the quarter, but that will be an advantage, whereas our share from 75% in GS 22 goes up to global share in GS 23. In terms of inventory adjustment, I think you're right the way you heard it. You have an impact of $0.80 in the first quarter, and it's more than half. So we do expect to have some impact from that going into second quarter as well. And then your last question on whether it's just the Chinese or Samsung and others adjusting inventory, it's really across the industry.
Stacy Rasgon:
Right. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the QTL run rate. So I get the market is weak. But presumably, Apple should be stronger than the rest of the market into December. And usually, that gives a pretty big lift. It implies that Android must be really bad in the December quarter, unless there's something else going on. Can you just verify there's nothing else going on, no collection issues or anything like that? Is it just purely sort of Android market-related that's driving the run rate down? So I think it used to be around $1.7 billion in December quarter, and you're guiding about 150 million light.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. Purely driven by market and mix functions. It has nothing to do with any other issue overall. Now just to highlight a couple of things for the QTL numbers in the December quarter. At this point, we are not expecting normal seasonal volume increase into December. So maybe one of the disconnects or questions you might have on the variance between those 2 numbers, $1.7 billion versus $1.55 billion, is driven by that assumption. And then second, I'd say is we do have FX impact that shows up in QTL. I highlighted in my script on a year-over-year basis, that's an impact of approximately $50 million that's included in our guidance.
Operator:
Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
Akash, I want to go into the margin side of things. And I know you guys don't guide overtly to the gross margin side, but we can kind of back into generally where it is. So within that $0.80 hit to the fiscal first quarter guidance, is there anything going on with charges on the gross margin side? Because the same sort of question that Stacy just asked on the revenue side for the March quarter will likely apply when people work through their models on the gross margin side. Should we expect a snapback there? Is it a onetime thing? Any sort of progression on the profitability would be helpful.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So first, Ross, on your direct question, there isn't a set of charges that are included in the number that's anything significant. So that's the base assumption. The second thing I would say is if you look at where we guided our fourth fiscal quarter and where we came in, we actually did significantly better than our guidance. And then where we are guiding the first quarter is really in line with the guidance we had given for fourth quarter. So nothing specifically to look at there. We're kind of navigating through the environment. And then over the last couple of years, as I said earlier, we are pretty happy with the way we've navigated through foundry price increases as well. So focus for us is staying disciplined on the pricing side and kind of taking advantage of the technology and products we have to improve our market share.
Ross Seymore:
And I guess as my follow-up, I just wanted to hit on the automotive side. I guess kind of a 2-part question. In the near term, you didn't mention that as being down. So I assume -- is it safe to assume that that's going up? And then there's a general concern across the broader automotive ecosystem that it too will deal with the macro headwinds. I know you guys have a ton of market share gains were all in New York at your auto tech day. So I get that longer term. But are you seeing any evidence at all that the macro conditions might slow that -- the pace of that ramp that you're expecting over the next year or so?
Cristiano Amon:
So let me give you the first answer. The way you should think about our auto, we have been -- you have the telematics business. Then you have the digital cockpit that was a big component of the design pipeline, and those are turning into revenue. And then the next one after that is ADAS. So we expect the story of Qualcomm automotive has been about the pipeline materializing into revenues and continue to generate growth, less impacted by the short-term markets. I don't know, Akash, if you want to add anything.
Akash Palkhiwala :
I'll just say kind of as you think about our auto business, it's all about new car launches and how the adoption of our solutions kind of helps our revenue as the cars launch. So that's really the primary driver versus the overall size of the market.
Ross Seymore:
And it will be up sequentially in the first quarter? Just to clarify your guidance.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Our guidance was that we said for IoT and handsets, it will be down. We were quiet on auto, which implies it's not going to be down.
Operator:
Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.
Joseph Moore:
I wonder if you could talk about when you think the inventory built because it seems like you were on allocation until just a few months ago. Like do you think people were able to kind of get ahead of that and build inventory while it was still tight? Or did all that inventory build in a relatively short period of time, which would say that the recent numbers might be kind of overstated relative to demand?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So it's Akash. That's a fair question. So if you really think about our last earnings, one of the things we said was we expected customers to be cautious with their purchases in second half '22. But since then, what has happened really is the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, and we went from a period of supply shortages to demand declines. And it's kind of an unprecedented change over a short period of time. And what you're seeing is really OEMs responding to that and making a change in their inventory policy and now drawing down on inventory. So that's the impact that we're seeing in the December quarter that we sized at approximately $0.80. If you also think about the seasonality, you typically expect December quarter to be a growth quarter as people build inventory going into the holiday season. And what we're seeing is the opposite. So it does kind of come as a surprise in terms of how quickly the environment changed.
Joseph Moore:
Great. And then if I could follow up, what are you seeing on the pricing side in the more competitive markets, particularly in China? Is that the same as you've described? Or is there kind of incremental competition as you come out of a tight supply situation?
Akash Palkhiwala :
No additional comments to what I just said. I mean gross margin question that I answered kind of really factored. It's more of a pricing question than anything else, and those comments still apply.
Operator:
Louis Miscioscia from Daiwa.
Louis Miscioscia:
This is a longer-term question. I guess some news came out a little while ago from Ford and GM that they're closing down Argo. And also one of the big self-driving ADAS pioneers, Levanduski, actually seems to change his view. Realize that you guys just had the auto day, which is great, and you're really looking out to 2026. But just any comments on this and that how difficult it will be actually to stick to the prior time frame that you had originally talked about at the auto day?
Cristiano Amon:
Very good. Thanks for your question, Lou. The way you should think about our ADAS platform, and it's part of the Snapdragon Digital Chassis, we're really focused on scaling the technology and technology that has commercial applications. We really scale from Level 2 all the way to Level 3 plus. And we're not -- the market, I think, it's still -- for robotaxis, I think, is still a future market. We're really focused on attaching ADAS to every car. I think that's what has been the key driver of our design wins, and that's why we're winning across brands and across tiers for all the ones we announced. And we feel pretty bullish about ADAS materializing from the pipeline into revenues in the next few years. And you have to start thinking about that as they're multi-different levels of ADAS, starting with mandatory in-cap camera all the way to highway autopilot. And we're really focused in that part of the market. That's where scale is.
Operator:
Blayne Curtis from Barclays.
Blayne Curtis:
Actually, assuming -- I apologize if you kind of answered this, but I wanted to ask it again. Just in terms of the weakness, clearly, Android has a lot of inventory to work through. Just kind of curious if you're baking in any non-Android softness or there's been concerns about production and such. I know it's a tough customer to answer, but is there a way you can talk about what you're embedding for the handset business, both Android and iOS?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. I think the adjustment we talked about is primarily Android. So that's how you should think about it.
Blayne Curtis:
Perfect. And then I was just kind of curious, the thought process on rolling in the RF business. I know this is a big TAM for you guys, and you've made a lot of good progress in kind of penetrating that. So I'm just kind of curious, if you just walk through the thought of rolling that back in starting next year.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Sure. So when you look at our RF front-end business, it's kind of an end-to-end modem-to-antenna development cycle. And because of that, we've become the #1 player in handsets already. When we look forward, the way we think about the growth in the business is it's driving 5G further into handsets and WiFi 7 but also into automotive and IoT. In one of the new disclosures we gave, and you'll see this in our web slides, in fiscal '22, we had $137 million in auto RF front-end revenue, and we have a design win pipeline of greater than $900 million. And then within IoT, we have RF front-end revenue of $405 million. So those numbers are becoming of scale. And generally, still, it was mostly handsets. We kept it separate. But I think we're getting to a point where there -- it's becoming at scale within automotive and IoT. And so we thought the change in the revenue streams was -- this was the right time to do it.
Operator:
Timothy Arcuri from UBS.
Timothy Arcuri:
I had 2. I guess the first one is on Apple. You did update that you now expect the vast majority of the launch in 2023 for you to be in the product. That's not a big surprise, I think, to most people. And you said that by 2025 that you'll be out of the products, but you used the word product. So I just want to clarify that you are still assuming that once they don't need your modem anymore that they will still pay you a royalty for said patents?
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. The licensing business is completely independent of whether or not we supply modem to them. So your assumption is correct. We expect to continue to have licensing revenues. And I think consistent with what we said in the past, we're focused on our strategy on long-term customers, and we just can assume that our planning assumption is we don't have any visibility and continue to provide the modem in '25.
Timothy Arcuri:
Perfect. And then I guess also, Akash, I had a question on the financial model for QCT. I know you gave it a year ago, and things have changed a lot since then. At the time, you were sort of implying if you sort of ran the growth rate out to ‘24, it was sort of implying a $40 billion QCT revenue out in 2024. You’re now down to sort of $8 billion a quarter, so you’re now run rating more like $32 billion. Do you still feel confident that you can get back next year into the $10 billion a quarter that would get you to that $40 billion financial model next year?
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. So as I’m sure you know, we just delivered $30 billion -- $38 billion of revenue for fiscal ‘22 for QCT. And so our strategy is unchanged. We are executing so far well ahead of target. And so really what we’re focused on right now is navigating the current environment. No updates to our Investor Day targets.
Operator:
Brett Simpson from Arete Research.
Brett Simpson:
I wanted to ask just the extent to which Qualcomm thinks are under-shipping demand in the December quarter. And maybe just factoring in the weak outlook for December, and I think you talked about the flagship ramp with Samsung in the March quarter. Is it fair to assume the December quarter is a trough for Qualcomm this cycle? I mean any perspective there as we look through that fiscal '23 would be very helpful.
Akash Palkhiwala :
Yes. Brett, from an inventory drawdown perspective, we definitely see first quarter as the bottom. As we said, more than 50% of the inventory drawdown, we think, happened in the first quarter. And so that hopefully answers the question you were asking.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on China. I mean it's something that certainly is on a lot of investor minds. How does Qualcomm feel about your position in the region, particularly with the geopolitics that's happening right now? Do you see risks here long term to the business? Or is there scope for growth in China? Any perspective there would be much appreciated.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question. Look, we -- the latest set of restrictions, we were not in impacted by those. And we have seen our business in China to continue to expand, especially as we grew into auto and IoT. We see corresponding expansion of those business in China as well. I think we have a global position. I think we -- it's one global standard, especially when you think about the mobile market in 5G. And we look at a position that we have in China as one that is pretty stable right now. It's very difficult to predict this environment. But so far, I think, continue to be a strong business from Qualcomm with growth opportunities. And we're hopeful that the extended lockdown will end soon, and that's going to have likely a positive impact on the size of the phone market.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Thank you, everyone, for listening to the call. I just want to say a big thank you to all of our employees and partners that are helping us to the incredible fiscal '22 and how we navigate to fiscal '23. Just a few comments. When you step back from the current short-term macroeconomics and this temporary cyclical inventory drawdown, we feel that Qualcomm is very well positioned. A lot of the trends continue to point to our technology road map. You need connectivity, advanced processing and artificial intelligence at the edge. And as we outlined in the script, we see that everything is on track, including expanding design for our Windows on Snapdragon with our custom CPU. The ability to continue to materialize the auto as well as IoT and industrial IoT and the digital transformation has proven to be overall resilient in the long term. So we will be decisive in managing operating expenses and especially if the downturn gets steeper or more prolonged than we expect. But I would like to remind everyone that the current inventory is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying long-term earnings power of the company. And we're have -- we're well on our way, executing our growth strategy and all the fundamentals remain in place. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 27, 2022. The playback number for today’s call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13731134. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on the website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I’m very pleased with our performance in fiscal Q3 and how we continue to execute on our long-term vision of enabling a world where everyone and everything is intelligently connected. As we continue to scale our One Technology Roadmap across new industries and applications, we are transforming Qualcomm from a communications company for the mobile industry into a connected processor company for the intelligent edge. This quarter, we delivered revenues of $10.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $2.96 per share, driven by solid results in both our chipset and licensing businesses. In our chipset business, revenues of $9.4 billion were up 45% year-over-year with record revenues in IoT and automotive, demonstrating the success of our diversification strategy. Before I highlight a few notable milestones this quarter, I would like to update you on an important development in our relationship with Samsung. We’re very pleased to report that Qualcomm and Samsung have entered a new multiyear agreement starting in 2023, expanding the use of Snapdragon platforms for future premium Samsung Galaxy products globally. This validates the Snapdragon is the technology platform of choice for premium Android experiences. In addition to Galaxy smartphones, the agreement includes PCs, tablets, extended reality and more. We have also agreed to a seven-year extension of our patent license agreement with Samsung, taking the license through the end of 2030 with the same royalty terms. The extension encompasses 3G, 4G and 5G technologies and devices and will also include future 6G standards and products. This license agreement is a significant QTL milestone event. Samsung is the world’s largest smartphone supplier by unit volume with a well-developed portfolio of patents. The extended license agreement with Samsung demonstrates the tremendous ongoing value of our patent portfolio, our innovation and our longstanding leadership in driving the important and foundational elements of the mobile road map. The extended Samsung license agreement is an important benchmark for the long term and adds significantly to the stability of the QTL program going forward. Let me now share some of the key achievements from the quarter. In automotive, the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is fast becoming the industry’s platform of choice and is enabling the transition to next-generation vehicles. We are very pleased with the continued traction and design wins across global automakers and Tier 1 partners. Our automotive design win pipeline is now over $19 billion, up approximately $3 billion since fiscal Q2. This includes the design win with the Volkswagen Group’s software company, CARIAD, to power Volkswagen’s future automated driving solutions. In consumer IoT, we continue to execute on our opportunities across tablets, XR, PCs and smart consumer devices. For personal computing, we are continuing to drive the inevitable transition to ARM. We are on track to deliver Windows on Snapdragon compute platforms for next-generation PCs powered by our custom CPUs while redefining mobile productivity and on-device AI. To support the accelerating transition to ARM-based computing, Microsoft recently announced Project Volterra, a new developer kit powered by the Snapdragon compute platform featuring the Qualcomm AI engine. They also announced a comprehensive end-to-end ARM native toolchain for Windows application developers including Visual Studio, Visual C++ .NET and more. In edge networking, we launched four new networking Pro Series Wi-Fi 7 platforms, the world’s most scalable Wi-Fi 7 portfolio, initiating a new era of 10 gigabits per second Wi-Fi for enterprise access points, Wi-Fi mesh, carrier gateways and premium home routers. We also continue to see strong momentum in industrial IoT and recently announced two new 5G connected robotics platforms with enhanced AI capabilities, computer vision, 5G connectivity and a comprehensive customizable SDK, to power next-generation robotics and drones, including autonomous mobile robots, AMRs, highly automated manufacturing robots and more. These achievements demonstrate our ability to continue to grow across automotive in the broader IoT categories in addition to RF front-end and handsets. Our One Technology Roadmap is the cornerstone of the strategy with unparalleled leadership across not one, but multiple technologies required for the connected intelligent edge. This includes on-device AI, low-power, high-performance compute, computer vision, advanced connectivity and more. Importantly, as we expand into new growth areas, we’re driving our technologies to meet the highest performance requirement for each application and serve as the industry design point. For example, our dedicated automotive SoCs and accelerators for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving can deliver up to 700 trillion operations per second, TOPS of AI processing. Our RB6 robotics platform brings advanced edge AI and video processing capabilities support for up to 7 concurrent cameras and up to 200 TOPS. And we believe our upcoming custom-designed CPUs will redefine computing performance for Windows PCs. Of particular note is our significant momentum in AI. We recently launched the Qualcomm AI Stack, which unifies our existing best-in-class AI software solutions into a single package that works across all Qualcomm platforms. The Qualcomm AI Stack is positioned to become the platform for AI at the edge. The Qualcomm AI Stack supports all AI frameworks, including TensorFlow, PyTorch and ONNX as well as AI runtimes such as TensorFLow Lite, TensorFLow Lite Micro and ONNX runtime. We also have a rich variety of OS support, including Android, Windows, Linux, QNX, Ubuntu and others. With this new offering, OEMs and developers can now develop and optimize AI models once, then move the same model across different Qualcomm products and tiers for true develop once, deploy anywhere model. We believe the Qualcomm AI Stack portfolio is a revolutionary step in scaling high-performance, low-power on-device AI processing. These solutions demonstrate how our One Technology Roadmap is transforming Qualcomm from a wireless communications company for the mobile industry to a connected processor company for the intelligent edge. Lastly, as we continue to move forward and execute on our strategy, we’re mindful of the challenging economic environment, and we remain disciplined on investments that drive sustainable differentiation and stockholder value. We are focused on customers and industries that drive stable long-term growth. We believe the industry trends that are driving demand for our technologies remain unchanged and continue to validate our strategy, positioning us well for the long term. We’re still on track to expand our addressable market by more than 7 times to approximately $700 billion in the next decade. Before I turn the call over to Akash, I would like to invite you to join us in New York on September 22nd at our first ever Automotive Investor Day event. Qualcomm is the leading automotive technology platform provider for next-generation vehicles. We will demonstrate how the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is enabling the transformation of the automobile and continuing to drive growth in our design win pipeline. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong results in our third fiscal quarter despite the impact of the challenging economic environment. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $10.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.96, which was above the high end of our guidance. Non-GAAP revenues and EPS grew by 37% and 50%, respectively, versus the year ago quarter, driven by technology leadership, revenue diversification and operating efficiency. QTL revenues of $1.5 billion and EBT margin of 71% were at the midpoint of guidance. These results reflect a decrease in handset volume in mid and low tiers offset by favorable mix. QCT recorded revenues of $9.4 billion and EBT margin of 32%, both at the midpoint of our guidance and reflecting revenue growth of 45% and EBT dollar growth of 67% versus the year-ago quarter. Handset revenues of $6.1 billion increased 59% year-over-year, driven by the strength of our Snapdragon product portfolio, especially in the premium and high tiers. Consistent with our guidance, RF front-end revenues of $1 billion, grew 9% versus the year-ago quarter on increased adoption of our broad product portfolio. IoT revenues were up 31% year-over-year to $1.8 billion. We saw strong performance across edge networking and industrial IP with combined revenue growth of more than 40%. We delivered another record quarter in automotive with revenues of $350 million with year-over-year growth of 38%, driven by launches with our digital cockpit products. Looking forward to global 3G, 4G, 5G handset forecast. We now expect calendar ‘22 global handsets to decrease by mid-single-digit percentage on a year-over-year basis, including 650 million to 700 million 5G handsets. Our guidance reflects the continuation of the trends that adversely impacted handset volumes exiting the June quarter. We expect the elevated uncertainty in the global economy and the impact of COVID measures in China will cause customers to act with caution in managing their purchases in the second half of calendar ‘22. In the fourth fiscal quarter, we are forecasting revenues of $11 billion to $11.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3 to $3.30. The midpoint of our guidance includes an estimated impact of approximately $0.20 due to the macroeconomic headwinds and the reduction in the global handset forecast I just outlined. We are forecasting QTL revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion and EBT margins of 69% to 73%, reflecting normal sequential unit growth. In QCT, we expect revenues of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion and EBT margins of 32% to 34%. At the midpoint, this implies year-over-year revenue growth of 27% and EBT dollar growth of 31%. On a sequential basis, we expect growth across QCT handset and automotive revenue streams. In handsets, while Snapdragon premium tier volume remains resilient, our guidance assumes lower demand in other tiers, reflecting the updated global handset forecast. In IoT, we are seeing strength across industrial and enterprise, which is offset by pockets of weakness in consumer products. We anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to be up 6% to 8% sequentially, with approximately half of the growth due to the inclusion of 2 quarters of expenses for the Arriver acquisition. As a reminder, our third quarter results did not include Arriver since we are reporting one quarter in arrears until the fourth fiscal quarter. Based on the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we’re expecting fiscal ‘22 to be an exceptional year. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $12.55, a growth of $4 for fiscal ‘21. We are forecasting QCT revenues of greater than $37 billion, a year-over-year growth of greater than $10 billion and EBT margin expansion of approximately 5 points. QCT handset revenues are on track to grow slightly below 50% relative to fiscal ‘21, driven by increased processor content and expansion of our addressable market. With our continued focus on diversification, we are forecasting RF front-end, IoT and automotive combined revenues of greater than $12 billion in fiscal ‘22. Lastly, we are pleased to announce we signed a long-term extension of our license agreement with Samsung through 2030 at the same royalty terms. With this agreement, the QTL forecast that we provided at Investor Day remains unchanged. In closing, while we are mindful of the current environment, our long-term fundamentals are intact. We remain focused on driving growth by executing on our vision to bring cloud connectivity, data processing and artificial intelligence to the edge. Thank you, and back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everybody. Cristiano, maybe you could give us a little bit of a breakdown in how you’re seeing the handset market right now. And particularly, we’ve -- and you guys just discussed it in your prepared script, some weakness in mid-tier Android. But I’d like to sort of double-click on that a little bit. If you could contrast what you’re seeing maybe with premium, with the mid-tier Android market, specifically in China and then the mid-tier and low-tier Android market globally? And if there’s any differences in the trends that you’re seeing there, that would be really helpful. Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you for your question, Matt. Look, we’re very familiar with this market. We’ve been doing this for years. And this market, it changes with the economy. We look at the combination of the macroeconomic environment and the China lockdowns, we did see the market is likely to be smaller than we originally forecasted. But, on the positive side, I think our strategy of being focused on the premium and high tier is proven to be a resilient one. So, the weakness we saw more in the mid to low tiers, premium tier remained resilient and not only in how we report the results in Q3, but how we think about our guide in Q4. And maybe Akash can add a little bit more color to it.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Matt. So to add to that, in the third quarter, what we saw was lower handset units in the mid, low tiers. And of course, there was an impact in China, but the rest of the impact was largely in rest of the world with some limited impact in the developed economies. And what we are forecasting going forward is really that to continue forward in second half of calendar ‘22, the adverse trend that we saw exiting the third fiscal quarter extending forward. So, we are updating the overall calendar year forecast to down mid-single-digits versus ‘21, and we’re also updating the 5G forecast to be in the $650 million to $700 million range for the year.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Maybe as a follow-up there, Akash, you’ve been ordinarily kind enough to give us some out quarter views on prior calls and with all the movement in the end market and the fact that you’re lowering the forecast for the full calendar year on handsets, if you have any color that you could give us directionally into the December quarter, we’d be really grateful. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Matt. As you know, December quarter is seasonally a strong quarter for us, both up for the QCT handset business and the QTL business. So that remains unchanged. We’re still going to see flagship device launches and holiday season increases that will benefit our financial performance. And we’ll see -- we are forecasting growth from third fiscal to fourth fiscal quarter, and we’ll see growth again going into the first fiscal quarter. We do expect it to be calibrated by some of the same factors that we saw impacting us in fourth quarter, but still expect strong growth rates as we look out to the December quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Tal Liani with Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys. First question is on balance sheet. Cash and equivalents went down by $4.5 billion, if you can give us some data there? And second, I want to talk about RF. RF on a sequential basis is slowing down. And the question is, it’s basically down on a cumulative sequential basis, it’s down already. And the question is whether the share gain story is over and now it’s going to trend in line with the market. Can you take us through kind of the trends, but also the ASP trends that you’re seeing in the RF segment, RF of QCT, of course?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Tal, it’s Akash. I’ll start with the first question and also start the second one and Cristiano can add on top. On the cash balance, as you know, we closed the Arriver acquisition right after the March quarter ended. And so, the change you are seeing is primarily driven by $4.6 billion paid in cash for the Arriver acquisition. Of course, we did have very strong positive cash flow and it was a balance of that being offset by capital return, which we returned $1.4 billion -- $1.35 billion in the quarter. And then, it was also offset by other related expenses on CapEx and tax payments that we made in the quarter. So really, it kind of comes down to the payment we made for the Arriver acquisition. On second one, on the RF front-end. So, the way you should think about the RF front-end growth is, it is something that grows more in line with the 5G market for us. And as you saw, we kind of brought down the overall forecast for the 5G units for the year. And so, that has played a role. Also, generally, it is something that does not scale very significantly when you grow from a low mid-tier to high tier, RF content remains relatively similar, whereas on the processor side, you’ve seen just tremendous scale on our handset business. As we go to premium high tiers, the ASPs are much higher, the content is much higher, and you’re seeing that benefit show up at the top end of the range.
Cristiano Amon:
So Tal, this is Cristiano, just going to add a couple of things. So, we have been very focused on the entire portfolio continue to drive leadership across every single component. And one thing that we have been very focused now started to bring RF front-end to auto IoT and Wi-Fi. And we’re starting to track that. As an example, the RF front-end design win pipeline, right now, it’s in the excess of $900 million in automotive. We also see opportunity with Wi-Fi. We announced our next-generation Wi-Fi and Bluetooth for RF front-end modules to go over chips as well. So, we expect to be focusing on driving growth in auto and IoT. And as Akash said, it’s an attached story on the Snapdragon. It tracks the mobile market, and we grow faster than front-end in mobile because of processor content.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
I had a couple. Maybe if I can start with the China smartphone market. I know Akash, you referred to assuming that the global smartphone market sort of remains the same way as it is with exiting June. I sort of remember that some of the government data and that regional market data show positive signs in the June month -- the month of June, I think, after the reopening. Any sort of comments given you’re sort of seeing many cycles here, what are you thinking in terms of how to -- when does the market trough rate up to the China smartphone market? What gets it to sort of reach a trough or rebound from there on because at least I think the month of June did show some positive signs? And I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Sure, Samik. You’re right. We did see some improvement in the month of June. But the way you should think about the OEMs reacting to the data is headwinds cause these customers to act with caution in how they manage their purchases. And so, it’s really not just kind of standalone what happened in the month of June and projecting that forward. It’s really the overall environment that they are reacting to and that’s what informs our forecast for units going forward.
Samik Chatterjee:
And just for a follow-up, for the September quarter guide, if I can ask you to unpack that a bit more. You typically have a high-end North American customer launching their product, and you’ve driven sort of double-digit quarter-on-quarter QCT growth in the past on account of that. The more modest seasonality that you’re guiding to now is that primarily then sort of weaker mid-tier Android -- mid and low-tier Android, or are you expecting some softness on the high end as well with your primary North American customer there?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So, when you look at our fourth quarter guidance, so we’re guiding midpoint of $3.15 versus June actuals of $2.96. So, we’re still guiding strong growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis in this environment. And on a year-over-year basis, that implies a 24% growth on the EPS side. If you look at the guidance range we gave, we widened the range given the uncertainty and also estimated that our guidance midpoint had an impact of about $0.20 related to the macroeconomic. If you break that down on your direct question, premium tier volume is holding, right? So just from overall Snapdragon and of course, the new launch happens as planned as well. But what we are seeing is the customers buying high mid, low tiers being careful with inventory as they manage and kind of work through the market environment. And so, you’re seeing that factored into our guidance going forward.
Cristiano Amon:
Maybe if I can just add one thing. This is Cristiano. So, the way to look at our Q4 guide, including the macroeconomic environment that we size at $0.20 of EPS, we see us growing 24% year-over-year. The way I will unpack that is, we have the macro, we have the reduction in the mobile market, but if you break that down, in addition to what Akash said about the premium tier being resilient even as we have less units in mid and low, we have sequential growth in auto. We had record auto Q3. We see sequential growth in QT. And in the IoT, I think consistent what we have been in the conversation throughout this earnings season is any offset in -- any consumer weakness has been offset by strength in industrial and enterprise. And so, when we look at those numbers, a 24% year-over-year growth is actually faster than some of our peers, they have even less consumer exposure than we do because of mobile. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.
Rod Hall:
I’ve got two questions for you guys. One is going back to kind of the high end and not necessarily September, not that particular high end, but the Chinese high end makers in the back end of the year. I know that as the supply chain, Cristiano, has been kind of short, I think there was some original thinking, those guys might preorder chips, and that might affect your September quarter. And I’m just curious if that is happening, are you seeing some impact on the September quarter from those anticipated Android launches in, I guess, the late October, November time frame? And then I have a follow-up on that.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Rod, it’s Akash. We’re not seeing any front-end behavior of people buying sooner than expected that’s impacting our September quarter on the handset side. In the premium tier, the demand is holding. As you know that we have strong relationships, a very strong roadmap in that tier. And so, we are seeing customers continuing to buy as normally they would as we go into the September quarter and then looking forward to December.
Rod Hall:
So then Akash, just to clarify, most of that impact would probably come in the December quarter. Is that correct, on that comment?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, if you’re talking about Apple’s phone launch, you would see a normalized...
Rod Hall:
High-end Android launches, mainly in China.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, exactly. So, we see purchases that happen through the September quarter on a normal basis, but December, end of December is when they start launching phones, both going into holiday season and then going into Chinese New Year. So, we expect to see the seasonal benefit of that.
Rod Hall:
Great. Okay. Thank you for that. And then, I also wanted to just ask you guys on channel inventory. We’ve had spotty indications of inventory clearance. Verizon is saying they’re going to clear inventory in high end, I think all levels of smartphones as we look into the fall. And there’s a lot of inventory clearance going on in retail. We see some abnormal high-end promotions in China occurring as well. So, I’m just curious what you think the status of inventory is out there, and whether you think some of this inventory clearance might pull some demand forward out of the early part, at least of the fall season?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, on the inventory side, I mean, clearly, with the kind of the end market sides being impacted both from a macro and a China perspective, what we’re seeing is that that has an impact on the inventory cycle that the industry then needs to work through in the second half of the calendar year, both through September and December. And that’s what’s kind of forecasted within the guidance that we gave. And as a result, as I said before, we expect OEMs to act with some caution with their purchases as they work through the inventory balance.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Michael Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Michael Walkley:
Thanks. Congrats on the Samsung deal extension through 2030 that includes 6G. Just, Akash, for this deal, are there any upfront payments or anything that might impact the cash flow or the model, is it more just an extension of 2030? And then maybe for Cristiano, if you could provide any color just on the Snapdragon commitment? Is there any guaranteed share exclusivity or anything you can share on that?
Alex Rogers:
Michael, this is Alex. Thanks for the question. On the Samsung licensing deal, the way this works is we have a current agreement that’s been in place since 2009, was set to expire at the end of 2023. Instead, what will happen is we’ve agreed to extend that for seven years through to the end of 2030 at the same royalty rate. So, that’s it, it’s pretty simple, pretty straightforward. We see it as a very, very significant milestone event for the QTL licensing program, validation of our portfolio, validation of our innovation leadership. And it’s a very important benchmark for future renewals as well. It really contributes a lot to the stability of the QTL program going forward.
Cristiano Amon:
Hey Michael, thank you for the question. Yes. Look, it’s -- besides the record in auto and IoT revenues, the Samsung agreement is probably my favorite thing in the quarter. And here’s the way I would describe the growth opportunity for the chipset business. We would average over the many years of this relationship, if you remember, about 40% share versus their in-house solution with the Galaxy has 22, which was prior to signing this agreement. Our share climb up to about 75%. And now, we’re announcing a multiyear agreement to power the Samsung Galaxy smartphones globally. So, very excited about that. It provides incredible stability for our mobile business. I cannot think of anything better to validate our strategy to be focused on share of wallet in premium and high tier than this agreement. So very, very exciting. I remember -- I would like to remember you all that that’s a very good trade. When I think about the silicon content of a Snapdragon 8 Series, at least equal or better than revenue and earnings of five modem for another OEM. Now, the second part of this multiyear agreement is the opportunity for growth tied up with our diversification. So, it expands beyond Galaxy smartphones to include Galaxy books, Windows PCs, Galaxy tablets, future extended reality devices and other devices. So, a very significant agreement, very excited and really the companies are much closer together.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
My first question is on the QTL side of things, remarkably in line for the quarter and guide. And if I think about last year, when you guided for your fiscal fourth quarter, business conditions appeared pretty strong. This year, you’re talking about uncertainties, macro headwinds, et cetera. But you’re guiding to the same QTL amount. So, I guess, the big picture question I’m getting from investors is it seems like Qualcomm has derisked the QCT side, but maybe not the QTL. Can you talk about how we fold the QTL guidance in with the more cautious macro view?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Sure, Ross. It’s Akash. As I said in my prepared remarks, the other factor on the QTL side is device mix being stronger and maybe a portion of it is inflation helping the ASPs, but also we’ve seen kind of people upgrade devices as they buy new ones. And so, the mix is what is offsetting the volume on the QTL side.
Ross Seymore:
And I guess, looking forward and shifting gears a little bit. You guys obviously report and guide and talk about your EBT margins a bunch, but gross margins have been a big tailwind for the Company as well. In this last quarter, by my math, it was supposed to drop per your guidance in the June quarter, but it dropped a little bit more than I was expecting. So, Akash, could you just talk about the puts and takes within the QCT gross margins? What would be generally tailwinds, headwinds, what we should think about as we head into the back half of this calendar year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Happy to. So, when you think about QCT gross margins, the key things for us is, one, our diversification strategy as we use the technology we have created for handsets and apply it to other markets. That helps our gross margin profile and op margin profile as well, but also gross margin profile. The second is, as we sell more premium tier devices, that is also a helpful trend for us. And so, you’ve seen the benefit of that even in the face of increasing pricing from foundries, we’ve been able to do pretty well on the gross margin side. We did see a mix change as we went through the quarter where we ended up slightly lower than we had forecasted at the beginning of last quarter. But when you look forward, our mix is shifting up again, and it’s maybe a balance of the previous quarter that allows us to guide very strong on the gross margin side. If you look forward, really no change. I think, we’re very comfortable with where we are at. We’ve given a long-term operating margin guidance, which contemplates a strong gross margin profile. And we’re comfortable with that guidance, no change there.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
Joe Moore:
On a similar note, can you talk a little bit about your pricing strategy in the handset part of the business? You saw the gross margin benefit during a period of tight supply. And I think some people have worried that as that period comes to an end, you’ll see more price competition. Can you just generally talk about how you see that dynamic?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So honestly, the pricing has been relatively stable on the handset side. It’s obviously a very large market. And there are two players who are participating in that market, and there is sufficient market for both of us. So, that’s how we’re approaching the market, and we have seen them be consistent as well. The other thing I’ll say is on the operating margin side, we’ve -- the way we gave guidance for the greater than 30% at Investor Day, we contemplated some decline in the gross margin profile. But really, what we’re focused on is executing. And as I’ve said this before, we are focused on executing on the upsides to that number.
Joe Moore:
Great. And then you talked about inventory in the context of the sort of end market retail. Can you talk about component inventory of Qualcomm parts, I mean, the fact that you had a shortage until relatively recently. Does that -- is that the reason why you haven’t had some of the same inventory correction in China that maybe some of the RF guys have?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, from an RF perspective, we’ve seen some of the similar trends that our peers have seen. But when you look at the handset side, which is obviously the majority of our inventory profile, we’ve been chasing supply to get to a comfortable place. And so, as we’ve said before, we always expected demand and supply to reconcile in the second half of calendar year, and we’re really seeing that play out as planned.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. Maybe I’ll start with my last one, just given the prior question. Just on inventory, I mean, I guess, it is quite a bunch in terms of your inventory in June, 100 days. Can you just comment on do you feel like you finally caught up? I know it’s been a long time coming, but at this point is it still gaining your shipments?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Blayne, generally, we feel like we’re in a relatively good place. Now of course, there are pockets of nodes or parts that we’re still dealing with shortage on. But overall, we feel like we’ve reconciled to a reasonable place. I’ll say just when you look at our inventory balance, just we’ve more than doubled our revenue over the last couple of years. And we’re also heading into a stronger seasonal quarters for us, September and December. And so, what you’re seeing on the balance sheet is really a reflection of what’s coming up.
Blayne Curtis:
Got you. And then just for Cristiano, I wanted to follow up on the question on the Samsung agreement, because you said last quarter, your share was much higher, that 75%. Obviously, they had some struggles with their internal modem. I’m just trying to -- maybe a little bit more color as to what this agreement means? Is there any kind of handset share that’s wrapped around it, or is it more about these other devices? I’m just trying to understand the real punch line on the agreement.
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. The way you should think about it is Snapdragon low power, they’re Galaxy product line, they are Galaxy flagship products. And what I can say at this point is we were 75% on Galaxy S22 before the agreement. You should be thinking about we’re going to be much better than that on Galaxy S23 and beyond. It’s a multiyear agreement. And it’s -- that’s probably what I can tell you. You should think about us powering their devices globally.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
Brett Simpson:
Cristiano, I wanted to ask about the Apple guidance that was laid out by Akash at the Investor Day. I think, Akash, you mentioned that new iPhones in the second half ‘23, you would expect about 20% share of those new iPhones. Now that we’re getting closer to that time line, has your view changed at all by that share? And if we were to see more demand for Qualcomm modems at this account, can you secure the foundry capacity? And would you need to negotiate a new long-term agreement for modems? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Brett, we’re not providing any Apple updates at this time. And we feel pretty good about our modem road map in 5G. And I think you should expect that Qualcomm will continue to be a leader. And especially as modems becoming more difficult it is supporting more than one end market beyond smartphones. Thank you.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. That’s clear. And maybe just a follow-up for Akash. I just wanted to ask about free cash flow. You’ve had a lot of moving parts, I guess, looking at fiscal ‘22 with prepayments for foundry and some of the working capital increases. But can you talk more broadly about the ability of Qualcomm’s free cash flow margin targets, what’s the business really capable of achieving? And when might we start to see higher levels of free cash flow from the business? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Brett, you’re right. Over the last couple of quarters or several quarters, we’ve had a few ins and outs, two kind of key ones being acquisitions that we have done, but then also capacity reservations. And then, in addition to that, obviously, a pretty aggressive capital return program. So, it’s really a combination of those factors. When I step back and to your direct question, no change to our strategy that we outlined at Investor Day. We are very focused on returning most of our free cash flow to the shareholders. That’s something that we have prioritized over the last several years. We’ve been very aggressive with it, and we are planning to continue to do that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is coming from the line of Srini Pajjuri with SMBC.
Srini Pajjuri:
Thank you. Cristiano, can you talk about your position in the mid to low end? I know you’ve been focused on the premium segment. And the reason I’m asking this question is that if you look at 5G, even with your guidance for a little bit of a decline here, I think most of the premium market is fully penetrated with 5G. And as we think about the next couple of years, the opportunity seems like it’s mostly in the mid and low end. So, I just want to get my hands around what’s your market share today? And how should we think about the growth opportunity for you as the market transitions to 5G in mid-end and low-end?
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you for your question. Actually, a very good question. Maybe I’ll answer breaking down in two parts. Look, it worked very well for us to be focused on share of wallet and especially in the supply-constrained environment to make sure we secure the sockets and had supply for the sockets, really important for this strategy, which is premium and high. It does not mean that we’re not going to be serving opportunities in the mid and low. And it’s now an environment as supply gets normalized as we predicted for the second half, we have an opportunity to win a lot of the sockets in the mid, low and that’s definitely an upside to our model.
Srini Pajjuri:
Got it. And then maybe for Akash. Akash, on the discrepancy between SoC growth and RF growth, I think you gave us a pretty good explanation for this year. But as we look out to the next year or two, should we expect the discrepancy to kind of remain, or do you think the handset growth and the RF growth will be somewhat similar? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Srini. We’re going to continue to have a discrepancy. I think if you look at a couple of web slides that we included this time around, it shows how the content is increasing at the premium tier for us. And that’s just an example, obviously, that applies to really all tiers. There’s a lot more demand for processor content, whether it’s CPU, GPU, camera, AI, security, audio video, we are increasing content across the board. And so, we do expect that that will drive stronger revenue growth on the handset side. As Cristiano mentioned on RF front-end, of course, we’ll benefit from the transition to 5G, which as markets like India start deploying 5G later this year, we’ll see the benefit of expansion of SAM since 5G is where we really play there, and then also for auto and IoT expansion opportunities there. So different vectors for growth in that area.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. I just want to start by thank you to our employees and our partners for really a great quarter. A couple of things that I’d like to message. None of our growth driver has changed. All the fundamentals of strategy are in place. We’re really focused on things we can control, but our strategy is working. We are transforming Qualcomm in a company that was communications for the mobile industry into a connected processor company for the intelligent edge. We’re very excited about the Samsung agreement. It is the way to think about stability and growth in our handset business. And one of the things we mentioned in the script that we didn’t talk much about it is the incredible progress we’re making in AI and really building very a competitive development platform for the edge. That’s where we see a lot of the growth silicon opportunities in the other devices. And don’t forget to tune in for Auto Investor Day. Auto is a success story for the company, continues to be, and we’re going to have some exciting things to share with you in our Investor Day later in the year. Thank you very much for your support, and talk to you also.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 27, 2022. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13728288. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As we shared at our Investor Day last November, Qualcomm is at the intersection of transformative trends that are generating demand for our broad technology portfolio across virtually every industry. This is creating strong growth and diversification opportunities beyond handsets. These trends, which include the enterprise transformation of the home, convergence of mobile and PC, merging of physical and digital spaces, the digital transformation of industries, connectivity and processing at the edge, the automotive digital chassis and 5G have only continued to accelerate. They are driving our financial outperformance in a greater-than 7x addressable market expansion to approximately $700 billion in the next decade. As you can see from our results, we delivered record revenues of $11.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $3.21 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 41% and 69%, respectively, both exceeding the high end of our guidance. In QCT, our chipset business and the growth engine of the company, we saw strength across the entire portfolio. Revenues of $9.5 billion were also a record and reflect our continued diversification. Our automotive design win pipeline is now over $16 billion, up more than $3 billion since fiscal Q1. IoT revenues grew 61% year-over-year with strong growth across all 3 categories of consumer, edge networking and industrial. RF front-end revenues grew 28% year-over-year, and handset revenues grew 56% year-over-year. These results demonstrate that our growth drivers remain unchanged and our strategy is working. Our one technology road map across wireless connectivity, advanced edge processing and power-efficient AI is incomparable across our peer group. In fact, advanced processing and artificial intelligence are the fastest-growing silicon content areas for Qualcomm. As such, we can no longer be defined just as a communications company serving one industry, rather, Qualcomm is a leading connected processor company for the intelligent edge serving multiple new end markets and enabling the growth of the cloud-connected economy. As we continue to expand, we remain on track to meet our Investor Day financial projections, and I will now provide an update on our progress to date. In automotive, our horizontal platform, the Snapdragon digital chassis is a significant driver of our growing design win pipeline and is increasingly becoming a key asset for automakers. Our digital chassis comprises a full suite of open, flexible and scalable platforms for telematics, connectivity, digital cockpit, ADAS and autonomy and cloud services. With leading system solutions expertise and capabilities across multiple domains, Qualcomm is fast becoming the preferred industry partner for the auto industry and is well positioned for continued growth. Since our last earnings call, we significantly expanded our Snapdragon digital chassis capabilities. First, the Arriver acquisition enhanced our ability to deliver open, fully integrated and competitive ADAS solutions to automakers and Tier 1 suppliers at scale. As a result of the acquisition, we are incorporating Arriver's computer vision, drive policy and driver assistance assets into Snapdragon Ride. Second, we recently announced a long-term cooperation with BMW to jointly develop and extend BMW automated drive software to the Snapdragon Ride platform. The co-developed solution is scalable and customizable and can be offered by Qualcomm to other automotive OEMs across all tiers. We also pleased with our multiyear technology collaboration with Stellantis, which will be utilizing our Snapdragon automotive cockpit platforms across the automaker's 14 brands. Upcoming Stellantis vehicles will also be featuring 5G capabilities for telematics systems based on our Snapdragon auto 5G modem RF platforms. In consumer IoT, Android tablets are becoming collaboration tools and increasingly demand is shifting from entry-level commodity tablets to premium connected computing devices, a clear validation of the convergence of mobile and PC. We are pleased that Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 is powering the newest flagship tablets such as the Galaxy Tab S8 series globally. Additionally, we are growing in premium and high-tier devices with OEMs such as Lenovo, HP and Opel. We're also pleased to see the announcement of the first-ever premium Windows on ARM enterprise focus laptop, the Lenovo ThinkPad X13S powered by the new Snapdragon 8CX Gen 3 compute platform. This new ThinkPad features 5G millimeter wave AI accelerated experiences, advanced camera and audio technology, an ultra-slim, fanless design and up to 28 hours of battery life on a single charge. We're encouraged by the broad interest in our upcoming products, utilizing our industry-leading CPUs designed by our NUVIA team. We continue to drive the inevitable transition to ARM-based computing while redefining the future of mobile productivity. In edge networking, we continue to benefit from the demand for global connectivity required for remote work, school and play, and we provide industry-leading solutions, enabling the migration to WiFi 6 and WiFi 6E mesh technologies. We also recently announced the world's first and fastest WiFi 7 commercial solution, which we believe will further extend our leadership position. With multi-gigabit WiFi performance, ultra-low latency and unmatched spectrum versatility, we believe our WiFi 7 solutions will unlock a new era of advanced consumer and industrial applications. Our 5G fixed wireless access solutions also continue to gain traction as a last mile broadband solution. We now have more than 125 fixed wireless access designs announced or in development by more than 40 OEMs. We also introduced next-generation features such as standalone 5G millimeter wave support in our RF sensing suite to enable operators to extend their 5G service offerings to the home and enterprise. Industrial IoT experienced the fastest year-over-year revenue growth within IoT this quarter driven by continued demand for both connectivity and advanced processing at the edge. Notably, this quarter, we saw accelerated demand for ruggedized handheld devices for warehousing, logistics and health care industries as well as for robotics platforms. Going forward, we're actively building an ecosystem of system integrators and channel partners to support the scale of our industrial IoT platforms as they become critical for the digital transformation of multiple verticals. In handsets, we had record revenues of $6.3 billion driven by continued traction with leading smartphone OEMs such as Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Honor, where Snapdragon continues to be the mobile technology platform of choice for premium and high-tier Android. We now have approximately 75% of the premium tier processor volume for Samsung's Galaxy S22 smartphones, up from approximately 40% in the Galaxy S21. Samsung's strategy to adopt Qualcomm for the majority of volume is significant and validates our platform leadership as well as consumer preference for the Snapdragon brand. Our Snapdragon mobile solutions continue to define premium smartphone experiences. Let me highlight a few examples from our Snapdragon 8 GEN-1. In imaging, devices enabled by this platform achieved the highest DxOMark ever, making it the best smartphone camera in the world. In connectivity, our solution features the world's first 5G AI processor in a modem RF system, enabling AI-based performance enhancements, antenna tuning, network selection and more. In AI, our 7 generation AI engine doubles the computational performance versus the previous generation. Our handset strategy, as outlined at Investor Day, is enabling share gains and enhancing our ability to capture the most significant portion of the revenue opportunity. In RF front end, we continue to drive 5G modem RF leadership. Our fifth generation modem RF system now implements advanced features such as AI integration, millimeter wave and sub-6 dual connectivity in 5G sub-6 care aggregation with FDD and TDD spectrum. Looking forward, in addition to growth in handsets, we're expanding RF front end into automotive and IoT. In our licensing business, revenues of $1.6 billion were above the midpoint of our guidance driven by the most valuable patent portfolio in the industry, and we continue to develop and patent new essential innovations for future releases of 5G and beyond. Lastly, demand remains strong across all our technologies and continue to exceed supply. We believe our multi-sourcing and capacity expansion initiatives will continue to provide incremental improvements towards supply throughout the year. With our One Technology road map and demand for our products and solutions across virtually all industries, we are in an incredible position to continue providing high-performance, low-power computing on-device intelligence and everything wireless. Our plan remains on track, and I'm very excited for the future of Qualcomm. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. We're extremely pleased to report strong second quarter results. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $11.2 billion, our third consecutive quarter of record revenues and non-GAAP EPS of $3.21. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 41% and 69%, respectively, driven by strength across all QCT revenue streams. QTL revenues of $1.6 billion and EBT margin of 73% were above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting a slight decrease in lower-tier units, offset by a favorable mix. This was another record quarter for QCT with revenues of $9.5 billion and EBT of $3.3 billion, an increase of 52% and 111%, respectively, versus the year ago quarter. We have now doubled QCT EBT dollars on a year-over-year basis in 6 of the last 7 quarters. Additionally, QCT EBT margin of 35% surpassed the high end of our guidance and increased 10 points year-over-year driven by revenue growth and diversification. Handset revenues of $6.3 billion increased 56% versus a year ago quarter. The upside relative to guidance was driven by increased volume in premium tier and improved supply. We gained share in Samsung's flagship device, the Galaxy S22, demonstrating leadership of our Snapdragon processor technology and our ability to compete with internal chipset initiatives. RF front-end revenues of $1.2 billion grew 28% versus the year ago quarter on increased adoption of our products across major OEMs. We saw accelerated growth across IoT and automotive as we align supply to better meet the demand for our products. IoT revenues were up 61% year-over-year to $1.7 billion primarily on increased demand for our chipsets for connected intelligent edge devices. We saw strong performance across consumer, edge networking and industrial with each of these categories growing by more than 50% compared to the year ago quarter. We achieved record automotive revenues of $339 million, a growth of 41% versus the year ago period, driven by launches with our digital cockpit platforms. With the strong adoption of our Snapdragon digital chassis, we have now increased our overall design win pipeline to greater than $16 billion. Lastly, during the quarter, we announced a 10% increase in our dividends and returned $1.7 billion in dividends and stock repurchases. Our strong free cash flow has positioned us to deliver attractive capital returns that are among the highest in the semiconductor industry while maintaining flexibility for strategic investments. Before turning to guidance, I will provide an update on the Arriver acquisition. On April 1, SSW Partners acquired Veoneer for $4.6 billion with substantially all of it funded by Qualcomm. SSW Partners then transferred Arriver to Qualcomm and now plans to sell the remaining non-Arriver businesses over the next several quarters. We expect that Qualcomm will receive most of the cash proceeds from the sale. We estimate Arriver non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $50 million per quarter. However, our guidance for the third fiscal quarter does not include this impact since we plan to report Arriver 1 quarter in arrears until the fourth quarter. Further details of the transaction are included in our 10-Q and earnings presentation posted on our Investor Relations website. Turning to financial guidance for the third fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $10.5 billion to $11.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.75 to $2.95. We estimate QTL revenues of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion and EBT margins of 69% to 73%. Our guidance contemplates global handset units consistent with the exit rate from the second fiscal quarter and assumes the end of COVID-related impact in China by the end of the quarter. In QCT, we estimate revenues of $9.1 billion to $9.6 billion and EBT margins of 31% to 33%. At the midpoint, this implies year-over-year revenue growth of 44% and EBT dollar growth of $1.2 billion. On a sequential basis, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth in IoT and automotive and a seasonal reduction in handsets and RF front end. Our strong forecast for QCT is driven by the same factors which benefited our second quarter, including gains in handset premium tier volume, strong demand in IoT and automotive and supply improvements. We anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to be up 5% to 7% sequentially, reflecting select investments in product road map. In closing, we are pleased with our financial results and strong execution as we manage to supply constraints in the current macroeconomic environment. Our QCT handset revenues are on track to grow by greater than 50% in fiscal '22. And we are well positioned for fiscal '23 as we continue to benefit from increased processor content and share gains. While we strengthen our mobile leadership, diversification is the top priority for the company as evidenced by increasing design win pipeline in automotive and accelerating revenue growth in IoT. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
Matthew Ramsay:
Congrats, guys, on the strong results. Cristiano, my first question comes on the automotive business. Obviously, there's a lot going on with the Arriver acquisition, the Stellantis deal and you guys talking about a $16 billion pipeline now. I wonder if we could go back and revisit some assumptions from the Analyst Day. I think you guys had talked about getting to $3.5 billion in revenue on sort of a 5-year basis. You're running maybe 1/3 of that now, but the pipeline is expanded dramatically. So maybe you could talk a little bit about the visibility on revenue and how you're thinking about the numbers that you laid out at the Analyst Day for that strong automotive growth.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question, Matt. No, look, I think the simple answer to your question, it's looking really good. The way you should think about that is as the cars are really becoming connected computer on wheels, the digital chassis assets of Qualcomm is really resonating with carmakers. And we're probably winning ahead even of our original projections. So we feel pretty good about ability to meet what we outlined at Analyst Day.
Matthew Ramsay:
As a follow-up, just on the handset business, I think it's notable that the significant, I guess, share expansion that you guys are highlighting at Samsung. And if you go back to the Analyst Day, I think you guys talked about growing QCT handset revenue sort of in that 12% range either -- even while Cupertino came out of share in the 2023 phone in a pretty significant way. So I guess there were some questions at that time about the ability to grow through the next 2 or 3 years Android revenue in such a significant way. So Cristiano, are you thinking about the content and share expansion at Samsung as being sustainable? And how is the RF attached on that expansion and share at Samsung trending?
Cristiano Amon:
Great question, Matt. Look, I wanted to point it out. It's a pretty good trade actually. Instead of providing a modem, we provide an entire Snapdragon platform with AI, GPUs, CPUs and a lot of silicon content plus RF front end. It's a pretty positive trade, if I can say it that way. This has been consistent with what we said before. You probably saw that in the making as a lot of the new form factor from Samsung, both the fold and the flip was Qualcomm globally. And I think the GS-22 kind of outlined the strategy of a deeper partnership with Qualcomm. And going forward, we expect our relationship with Samsung only to increase. So we're very pleased. And I think it reflects that the strategy is working. We've been focused on premium and high, and that's the value share of the Android market and technology investments, our differentiation and even Snapdragon brand matters. And I think that's reflected in what happened with GS-22.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Thomas Walkley:
Cristiano, building on Matt's question, just on the smartphone market. There's some investor concern or just industry concern about slowing 5G or Android demand. But it sounds like you're still trying to meet demand with your ability to supply. Can you talk about kind of your design wins into the back half of the year? And how you feel about the supply-demand environment for premium tier Android?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question, Mike. There's a lot in there. I think both how we think about the design as well as supply. So in handsets, it is a good story. I think Akash outlined, we're growing year-over-year for fiscal '22 in the order of 50%. We grew 56% in the quarter. And it's a story of share gains with Samsung as well as if you look at fiscal '22 compared to fiscal 2021, share gains in China as well. And it's -- and we continue to see Snapdragon as probably the synonymous with premium and high Android flagship. The design pipeline is very strong. We've been reporting that as we talk about the number of designs. And I'll let Akash talk about the market. Even though the market -- it is a little bit more soft, we're not that exposed to lower-tier units because of our strategy to be really focused on premium and high and in the value share of the market. Maybe Akash, if you can comment?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Mike, from a market perspective, we saw some softness relative to our previous expectations in the March quarter in the lower tier units. But as Cristiano said, a lot of the driver for our revenue growth and our value proposition is very strong at the premium high tier. And you're seeing the benefit of that show up.
Cristiano Amon:
So the second question, Mike, on supply. The supply situation is going as we planned. I think contemplating our guidance contemplated into our projections that we made back in Analyst Day. Having said that, you're going to hear the same thing that you're probably hearing from us consistently. We still have more demand than supply across all business.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
Congratulations on a great quarter here. I just want to start with Cristiano and Akash, you both mentioned the 50% QCT handset growth for the year. If you can put that in context, we all know the overall market is either flat or down for handsets this year. Just wondering if you can quantify how much of that 50% growth is share versus content growth on apples-to-apples basis. I'm just trying to think about how you would try to sort of capture what -- how much of that growth is sustainable into next year. Then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Samik, it's Akash. So maybe I'll address the question at a higher level in terms of the key drivers there. So first is we talked about Samsung share increase. And so that has helped us at the premium tier. Second is as supply has improved, we've been able to meet more of the demand in China as well. So that's the second key driver. As we've said in the past, as the OEM mix has changed, it has opened up a larger portion of the market for us. And so being able to access that portion of the market is also beneficial. And then finally, it's -- just the thing to remember is only 20% of the global handset units come from China, right? So the rest of the market, you're still seeing strong demand at premium high tier. And so we've been able to participate in that. And then finally, from a content perspective, as you know well, when you look at one generation to the next of phones, the amount of computing that consumers are demanding keeps going up. And that provides an opportunity for us, not just from a competitive differentiation perspective but also additional content per phone. And so even if you look at one generation 5G phone to next-generation 5G phone, because of the increase in content on the processor side, you're seeing the benefits show up in our numbers.
Samik Chatterjee:
And my follow-up, Akash, maybe how you're thinking or sort of baking in the impact of the China lockdowns here, both in relation to demand and any impact on supply that we should think of?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So we've looked at it both from a demand and supply perspective. On the demand side, as I mentioned earlier, relative to our expectations, we saw some slight decrease in lower-tier units in China. So we are projecting that forward into the June quarter and where our numbers assume a recovery in COVID-related impact in China by the end of the quarter. But obviously, that's an evolving situation and we're going to continue to closely monitor it. But as I said earlier, China is 20% of the global market. You still have the remaining 80% where we're seeing a lot of positive trends from a consumption perspective with a strong demand for premium high-tier devices.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I guess, first, in this environment with China and COVID and everything, we've been hearing some players in the market talk about conservatism in their outlook. And I mean this doesn't feel conservatism, but maybe that's wrong. I guess the prior quarters, the original outlook look really strong and then you've been crushing it. So I guess can you just give us some feeling for the degree of conviction you have in this outlook. And I know you've given us a little bit, not just into June. You even gave us a little bit on some of the end markets into September as well. It sounds like the drivers are there, but can you just maybe give us a little more color on where your conviction levels are as we're sitting here today?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Stacy, it's Akash. We obviously take a consistent approach when we guide the quarters going forward. So we've taken the same approach as we have done in the past. Certainly, there is more things that we don't do, given the situation in China and then macroeconomic situation as well. But the demand signals are strong and supply is improving and a lot of the upside that you're seeing is those 2 factors coming together.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. So my follow-up, you gave us some color on handsets. If handsets are up just 50% linked in the second half, that would put them, as you said, down a little bit in June. And you'd probably be up 20% in September sequentially if you just applied 50% year-over-year. So we have a little more color on that in September. Is there any outlook you can give us either qualitative or quantitative for the rest of the business into September?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. From a September quarter perspective, as you know well, it's kind of the quarter where we start seeing the second inflection point of the year for us, where we have flagship launches late in the August, September time frame going into holiday season. So we still expect that to happen, and that's going to help our performance as we go into those 2 quarters. Also, if you look at the September quarter, we're seeing strong demand across our diversification plan. So that's playing out as or better than we had expected. And so IoT, automotive and RF front end, we also expect strong year-over-year growth in those areas into the September quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Tal Liani with Bank of America.
Tal Liani:
I have two questions. One is on margins. It's -- last quarter was record margin. This quarter, again, much better than expected. Can you discuss the puts and takes of margins and what we should expect going forward? That's number one. And number two, I just want to understand -- just kind of a follow up on China. Entering the quarter, we thought China is going to be weak. We are also hearing, and I want you to correct me if I'm wrong, that Huawei share loss in China is not materializing, meaning Huawei is still selling in the high end and many miles away from China. So I would like to know what are the kind of share dynamics in China and what is the overall demand and if you can just elaborate a bit on the Chinese market.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Tal. It's Akash. So on the operating margin side, we're obviously very pleased with our margin performance. We guided 32% to 34% and came in at 35%, pretty strong performance. We're guiding 31% to 33% going forward as well. And it's really a combination of the 3 drivers we have discussed before. Revenue forecast with diversification, that's really helping us. Gross margins, as I'm sure you'll see through the numbers. We're doing well there. And then being able to leverage the handset technology into these new markets also make it accretive to diversify. So it's the combination of those things and consistent with what we've said before. The story is playing out as we would have expected. From a China perspective, you should think of we are participating in the revenue opportunity across all OEMs in China. And so if there's a particular OEM that's winning, Qualcomm would be participating in that as well.
Cristiano Amon:
So Tal, this is Cristiano. I just want to add a couple of things. So first of all, the strategy for handsets for us, it's different. We're really focused on premium and high tier. We have been very disciplined how we think about pricing. And we're really building on our technology differentiation, preference for Snapdragon brand. And I think that has had a contribution on the gross margin on the handset business. But also, we pointed out that in China its represented 20% of the market. The premium tier devices, whether Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, Honor, Huawei for 4G as well as devices such as Samsung, they're all powered by Qualcomm. And that is why we've been benefiting of growth in a richer mix of premium and high. We're not that much impacted by the low-tier units. And we've been less interested in commodity units in the handset business. Having said that, regardless of what's happened in the China market, I think the story on IoT is strong. The story on auto is strong and all of the new business are accretive to margins that Akash outlined.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.
Roderick Hall:
I wanted to come back to the 50% growth in handsets. When we calculate what that implies for Q4, it's about $1 billion more than we had anticipated for QCT revenues. And I think we were above Street, so a very strong number there. I guess I want to try to ask the visibility question again, maybe in a different way, which is do you -- how much of that revenue is committed? And I'm assuming this would be mainly high-end Android buyers that would be interested in shipping new units at the end of the year given your prior commentary about Apple exposure and so on. But I wonder if you could just confirm that is Android and then talk a little bit about how much of that revenue is in the bag now and how much still needs to be kind of developed in the order book. And then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Rod, it's the driver of the September quarter is typically consistent with what you would have seen in the past, right? So flagship launches that happen, not just in Android but Apple as well. we see the benefit of that show up in our numbers in that quarter and then going into December quarter. So that's a factor. Android demand continues to be strong. We have obviously significant demand and visibility in terms of the information we're getting from all of our customers, even with reconciling their demand signal for the market changes. So we're pretty confident as we look forward.
Roderick Hall:
Okay. Great. And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to -- you haven't touched on Europe at all. You talked about a little bit of weakness in China. We picked up some developing weakness in Europe. But I'm just curious what you're seeing there from a demand point of view. It doesn't sound like anything, but maybe give us a little bit of color on what you see going on in the European market from a demand perspective.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. I think maybe the only -- really thing to highlight that's inconsistent with the way we had seen the market before and the way we had outlined it at Investor Day is the weakness at the lower tier when you kind of step back from that and look at the rest of the market. On a global basis, it's playing out consistent with our expectations.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
A couple of questions. Congrats on the strong results. I wanted to get back to the handset growth and the sustainability of it. The 50% number in this fiscal year is great, significantly above my estimates, just like what Rod just said about his. But as you think about the moving parts that drove that, how much of, say, the $10 billion SAM opportunity you talked about in China will already have been addressed? And if you've gone from 40% to 75% penetration than the Samsung GS 22, how much more is there? So really, what I'm getting at is how long can you outgrow the handset market by content and market share gains if you're doing so well now?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Ross, it's Akash. So when we look forward on the handset side, we still think that there is opportunity to gain share, especially as supply improves. So that would be one driver. Second is 4G to 5G transition. We have some ways to go on that for the rest of the market. So we should see that play out, and that should benefit us as well. The third driver is what we discussed earlier, where the amount of processing that's needed. And this is whether it's CPU or GPU, AI camera, audio, video security, each of these vectors are being pushed hard in terms of performance and the competitive landscape between the OEMs. It is demanding that all these capabilities get added to the handset. So that is also helping us from a content increase perspective. And then those are the drivers as we look forward.
Ross Seymore:
I guess the follow-up would be on the margin side of things. You guys have done a great job expanding both the gross and the operating margins, especially on the QCT side of things. But I'm a little curious in the near term with your guidance. The overt guidance on EBT is down a couple of points, both on QCT and QTL. But more precisely, it looks like you're guiding the gross margin down a little bit in QCT. Given the moving parts within that, is there something unique going on? Because I would have thought kind of the diversifying engines would have actually brought the margins up. But it seems like the gross margin is going down 1.5 points, 2 points, something like that.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So I think in the quarter that we just reported, we guided gross margin at a certain level, and we came in even stronger than that. And so as we look forward, we're guiding kind of in line with our recent history, more in line with the way we had guided the March quarter as well. So that -- we could have a potential opportunity based on a mix of products. But the insight that we have right now based on the mix, we think that's a good number.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
Joseph Moore:
Great. Obviously, you've seen this really healthy environment in the premium to your handset market. But you've also had a shortage. And I wonder, has the shortage contributed to the pricing and margin strength that you've seen in any way as that shortage eases? Do you see more competitive market? And you talked about as your supply gets better, you can take share. Does that imply the more price aggressive? Or are the prices going to be sticky and mix shift is the element to watch?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Joe. This is Cristiano. I think what you have to watch is the amount of processing content that is increasing. It's now beyond a 5G story, just on the premium tier for the next generations of Snapdragon coming up. It's a significant increase in GPU, in artificial intelligence and CPU. So content on the processor side has been the biggest driver of higher ASPs and gross margin in handsets. The other thing I want to continue to point it out, which is as we leverage our one technology road map to grow in the other business. And in the quarter, 61% growth in IoT. In automotive, we added $3 billion to the design win pipeline. That's all accretive to margin, highly leveraged from the R&D that we do in mobile.
Joseph Moore:
Great. And if I could follow up on the royalty side. Nice to see that those numbers are solid in the first half of the year. Can you help us put that in the context of the overall supply chain issues that your customers are dealing with? And does that imply if they have pent-up demand, could that end up being better than seasonal royalty strength and just how should we correlate that with what we're seeing on the supply side?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So the easiest way to think about that already business is really aligning it to the total handset market and then mix within that. So as you'll recall at Investor Day, we had forecasted 2022 calendar units as flat to calendar 2021. And what we're seeing play out is slightly lower units at the low tier but offset by a stronger mix. And that's the combination of factors that's impacting both the actuals for QTL and our guidance for the next quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Chris Caso with Raymond James.
Christopher Caso:
I just want to go back to the Samsung commentary and the share gains that you've had there. And of course, at Samsung, your competition is an internal competition there. Can you speak to your level of conviction that now that you've achieved this new level of share within the Samsung Galaxy series that is sustainable, that what allows you to keep this business as you go forward with Samsung?
Cristiano Amon:
Condition is very high. And I'll point you to something that I would encourage, I think, you all to observe what's happening in the market. In many of those markets that are now new markets to Qualcomm, Samsung is actively advertising Snapdragon as an ingredient brand with the Galaxy S22. And I think that's a very significant data point. And as I said earlier, I think we're very confident that Samsung relationship is going to continue to be an expanding relationship for us.
Christopher Caso:
And as a follow-up, I wanted to revisit the notebook market and your intentions on penetrating that with Qualcomm silicon. It's something you spoke about quite a bit at the Analyst Day. Could you give us an update on that and perhaps when would we be able to hear more on that and start to see some impact on that into the results?
Cristiano Amon:
No, absolutely. Thanks for the question. We are on track. We have been working with Microsoft for many years. I think Windows 11, as I mentioned before, is for the first time, you'll have full support, including 64-bit emulation on ARM. It's the first time that you actually have a platform, which is ready for commercial and enterprise deployments. We did -- within the quarter launched with Lenovo, the first enterprise ThinkPad. And we have a number of designs with our 8 CX generation 3. As we think about the next generation, we have been developing our own CPU that's been designed by the NUVIA team. And we are going after the performance tier for focus about high scale in the enterprise. And development is on track, and we expect to have that in late 2023.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.
Blayne Curtis:
I wanted to ask you, if you look at the first half of the year, I think the 50% growth in handsets, it's pretty much all higher revenue per chipset through your filings. So I'm just kind of curious, as you look at the second half, obviously, the compares on kind of the content get harder. Just how are you thinking about that mix between unit growth, which I think Android units probably went positive this quarter but were down as you -- you're starting with supply. But how are you thinking about the second half in terms of the kind of pull there to grow revenue units, i.e., share or more content?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Blayne, it's Akash. So as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing growth in content, which is a driver for us. We're also seeing the share that we picked up at Samsung that we've discussed the strength in China and the improving supply. All of these are combinations that help us in the second half of the year. Also to keep in mind that typically, the new Apple phone launch happens in the fall time frame, and that would be a driver as well.
Blayne Curtis:
Got you. And then maybe just as a follow-up, IoT, just curious the mix tailwinds you're seeing there, I mean assuming stuff like WiFi 6 is helping, but any color on the tailwinds within the IoT segment?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So as we reported, IoT grew -- total revenue grew by 61% year-over-year. So of course, very happy about that. When you kind of unpack it a bit and you look at enterprise, consumer and edge networking, each of those portions of IoT grew by greater than 50% individually. So it's not something that's concentrated in an area. It's very broad growth. As Cristiano mentioned in his prepared remarks as well, that the strongest growth came from the enterprise channel, which was really good for us. I think that's an area that the SAM is effectively unlimited. There's a lot of digital transformation that needs to happen. And our ability to expand our presence there and participate in it is a tremendous driver for us long term.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us on the call today. I also like to take this opportunity to thank the hardworking, dedicated brilliant Qualcomm employees, thank all of our partners. And I just wanted to say why we love all the questions about handsets and handsets always going to be a very big part of our business. I wanted to point you all that the Qualcomm is changing from a communications company for the mobile industry into really a connected processor company for the intelligent edge. Even how we think about handsets no longer about modems. And in the quarter, we're super pleased that IoT alone was $1.7 billion. If you look at the IoT plus auto combined plus our RF business in excess of $3 billion, and we're just busy executing on one of the biggest opportunities in our history. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please limit your questions to one question and one follow up. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, February 2, 2022. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13726028. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Based on our performance over the past several quarters and the strong fiscal second quarter guidance, it is clear that our strategy is working. Demand for our products and solutions continues to accelerate, as our one technology road map is driving the growth of premium Android smartphones, as well as enabling the connected intelligent edge, which is driving digital transformation for the cloud connected economy. As you can see from our results today, strong performance in our chipset and licensing business led to record fiscal first quarter revenues of $10.7 billion and record non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.23. Our chipset business had its second consecutive quarter of record performance with revenues of $8.8 billion, EBT of $3.1 billion and EBT margin of 35%. Notably, QCT revenues exceeded those of any fabless semiconductor company. These results demonstrate the continued success of our diversification strategy. In IoT, we continue to see strong momentum, with revenue growth of 41% year-over-year in the first quarter across consumer, edge networking and industrial. In consumer IoT, our early investments, collaboration with Microsoft and the recent acquisition of NUVIA, uniquely positions us to drive the PC industry transition to ARM-based computing for next-generation connected laptops. We recently introduced two new platforms, the 8cx Gen 3 and 7c+ Gen 3. And at CES, we highlighted broad support from ecosystem partners, including Acer, ASUS, HP, Lenovo and Microsoft as well as 200 enterprise customers currently testing or deploying Windows on Snapdragon laptops in 2-in-1 devices. We're also seeing strong growth in premium and high-tier Android tablets, further highlighting the convergence of mobile and PC. Notably, we have already doubled the total number of premium tier and/or tablet design wins launch or in the pipeline versus all of fiscal '21. Additionally, as the Metaverse opportunity materializes, we continue to build on our industry leadership position in VR and AR devices with key ecosystem players, including Meta and Microsoft. At CES, we announced a collaboration with Microsoft to expand and accelerate the adoption of augmented reality in both the consumer and enterprise sectors. This partnership includes custom AR chips to enable a new wave of power-efficient, lightweight AR glasses to deliver rich and immersive experiences as well as plans to integrate our Snapdragon Spaces XR developer platform into Microsoft mesh. We're also very pleased that Time Magazine named our Snapdragon XR2 platform as one of the best inventions of 2021. And we're seeing strong support for our VR and AR platforms from virtually all ecosystem providers, OEMs and content creators. In edge networking, we continue to lead in current and next-generation high-performance Wi-Fi 6 and Wi-Fi 6E solutions, which now make up more than 80% of our Wi-Fi access point revenues. Recently, we launched the world's first quad-band Wi-Fi 6E mesh system with NETGEAR, which was rated the best-in-class mesh platform by PC Magazine. Additionally, our Wi-Fi 6 immersive home platforms continue to gain momentum across regions, with significant growth now expanding into China, one of the fastest-growing markets for Wi-Fi 6 for both retail and carrier deployments. 5G as wireless fiber continues to gain scale and expand globally. In addition to our extended range millimeter wave platforms, we recently expanded our portfolio to include 5G fixed wireless access solutions with extended range sub-6, and we're seeing strong traction. In industrial, we're still in the early phases of digital transformation across many industries. And demand for our solutions continues to accelerate. As an example, combined smart utility meter, tracking robotics and retail revenues more than double over the last year. In robotics, specifically, we expect total fiscal '22 product launches using our platforms to increase by over 50% year-over-year, spanning applications from warehouse automation to public safety, delivery services and in-home assistance. The diversity of vertical segments and applications reflects our ability to provide a common platform that integrates advanced computer vision, on-device AI, high performance in low-power computing and industry-leading connectivity technologies. In RF front end, we successfully launched our latest 5G modules, which now include our ultraBAW technology. Our modem-to-antenna strategy is working, enhancing power and performance with average generation of Snapdragon. Notably, virtually all our Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 design wins now include Qualcomm ultraBAW filter technology. Building on our success in handsets, we're seeing traction with our modem-to-antenna solution across automotive and IoT. As examples, we're well positioned to address up to $30 of 5G RF content per vehicle, and we're also intersecting our RF front end road map with Wi-Fi 7. In automotive, Qualcomm is becoming the technology partner of choice for the industry, and we're enabling the transition of the automobile to a digital cloud-connected platform. Our innovative Snapdragon digital chassis is an open and scalable cloud-enabled platform for telematics, connectivity, digital cockpit and ADAS, and uniquely position us as the leading system solution provider for silicon, software, systems and services across multiple domains. As a reminder, General Motors, BMW and now Renault Group are cornerstone customers for our platform, including ADAS. At CES, we announced an addition to our ADAS and autonomy platform, the Snapdragon Ride Vision System, a new modular computer vision solution that combines our Snapdragon Ride SoCs with the next-generation vision perception software from Arriver. It supports the various compute functions needed for enhanced perception around the vehicle, and it scales across applications from entry-tier in-cap front camera to comprehensive front and surround view camera for enhanced autonomy. We expect the Snapdragon Ride Vision System to be available in production in 2024. In handsets, we recently announced our most advanced 5G mobile platform for flagship smartphones, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 at our annual Snapdragon Tech Summit. The announcement was viewed by more than 50 million people worldwide. The news Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 leads the way to a new era of premium mobile technology with category-defining enhancements across modern RF, camera, AI, gaming, security and more. Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 is the world's first 5G modem RF solution to reach 10 gigabit download speeds. It's the first to include commercial 18-bit mobile image sensor and the world's first platform compliant with the Android-ready Secure Element Alliance. We also announced new mobile platforms in every Snapdragon series to address global customer demand across every smartphone tier. In our licensing business, first quarter results reflect a favorable mix in the strength of smartphone shipments. With over 150 5G license agreements, QTL is well positioned for the future, and we continue to expect 5G to have a longer life cycle than prior generations due to its broad application across multiple industries. Lastly, demand remains strong across all of our technologies and continues to exceed supply. Despite ongoing challenges across the global supply chain, our multisourcing and capacity expansion initiatives will provide incremental improvements to our supply throughout the year. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano and good afternoon everyone. We are extremely pleased to report strong results to start our fiscal year. We delivered our second consecutive quarter of record non-GAAP earnings, with revenues of $10.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.23. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 30% and 49%, respectively, driven by strength across both QCT and QTL. For QCT, this was another record quarter with revenues of $8.8 billion and EBT of $3.1 billion, up 35% and 62%, respectively versus the year ago quarter. QCT EBT margins of 35% surpassed end of our guidance range and increased six points versus the year ago quarter driven by revenue scale and operating leverage. Handset revenues of $6 billion increased 42% year-over-year due to greater than 60% growth in revenues from Snapdragon chipsets for Android devices. RF front-end revenues of $1.1 billion grew 7% versus the year ago quarter, reflecting the previously mentioned pull-in of demand into the fourth fiscal quarter. Our RF front-end revenues for Android devices grew by greater than 25% versus the year ago quarter as we continued to see strong traction across all major OEMs. IoT revenues were up 41% year-over-year to $1.5 billion on continued demand for our cloud connected intelligent edge devices. Each of the consumer, edge networking, and industrial categories grew by at least 30% compared to the year ago quarter. Automotive revenues of $256 million grew 21% year-over-year on the strength of our design wins across our Snapdragon digital chassis. We recorded QTL revenues of $1.8 billion, an increase of 10% year-over-year, and EBT margins of 77%, which was above the midpoint of the guidance. These results reflect a favorable mix and slightly higher handset shipments. Turning to global handsets and our guidance for the second fiscal quarter. For calendar 2021, consistent with the previous guidance, we estimate global 3G, 4G, 5G handsets grew 7% year-over-year, including approximately 535 million 5G handsets. For calendar 2022, there is no change to the forecast provided at our Investor Day with greater than 750 million 5G handsets. For the second fiscal quarter, we are forecasting revenues of $10.2 billion to $11 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 to $3. In QCT, we expect revenues of $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion and EBT margins of 32% to 34%. At the midpoint, this implies year-over-year revenue growth of 43% and EBT dollar growth of $1.4 billion. For handsets and RF front end, we expect revenues to be in line sequentially as seasonal decline in Apple revenues is offset by continued growth in revenues from Android devices. Within handsets, the increase in Android revenue is driven by the launch of our new Snapdragon premium chipset and additional shipments across high and mid-tiers due to our second sourcing efforts. Additionally, we expect strong year-over-year and sequential growth in our IoT and automotive revenue streams. We estimate QTL revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion and EBT margins of 70% to 74%. This reflects the normal pre-COVID trends following the strong holiday quarter. We anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to be up 7% to 9% sequentially on normal seasonality, including calendar year resets for certain employee related costs. The remaining increase reflects select investments in long-term growth initiatives that we outlined at our Investor Day. Looking forward to the third fiscal quarter, we are forecasting year-over-year non-GAAP EPS growth of greater than 30%. For QCT, this reflect the seasonality following Chinese New Year purchases and the launch of our new Snapdragon premium chipset in the second quarter. We expect the next inflection point in QCT to be in the second half of the calendar year, with launch of new 5G handsets across several major OEMs. Lastly, we published our annual corporate responsibility and ESG report yesterday, which outlines progress against our company wide targets, including environmental sustainability, diversity and inclusion, and power efficiency of our Snapdragon products. We are pleased to have been recognized by several organizations, including making the Dow Jones Sustainability Index and Newsweek's most responsible company list for the third consecutive year. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Samik Chatterjee:
Thanks for taking my questions, and congrats on the results. I guess, if I can start with -- you talked about the strong launch with Android customers that you've had in both phones and tablets. And I think you mentioned doubling the pace of launches with Android. As we look to the -- beyond the first half, that is your fiscal first half December and March, how should we think about how much of the Android share gains for you or launches for you is already in the run rate? And how much of that is like weighted for the remainder of the year beyond sort of this first half of the year? If you can share some color on how to think about share gains continuing for the remainder of the year with Android. And then I have a follow-up, please.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Samik, this is Cristiano. Look, Android is a success story for us. This quarter continues to validate what we said before. OEM shared in shifts in China is benefiting Qualcomm, and we saw significant growth of Qualcomm share within the market as we have this new 10 opportunity. And we've seen that reflected in the growth we've seen in premium and high tiers. So it continues to be a story. It was the highlight of what happened in the handsets within the quarter. Akash outlined 60% year-over-year growth on Android. And I'll shift over to Akash to talk about seasonality.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Samik, I think this is something that'll sustain for us going forward. We are in a very strong position as you see in the numbers. Our product portfolio is very strong as well. So as we keep -- go forward, we continue to expect to see this benefit in our financials.
Samik Chatterjee:
Yes, got it. And just for my follow-up, I know you talked about the second source helping in terms of, obviously, in terms of realizing better revenues. But if you can talk about what you're seeing in terms of the cadence of the improvement there. Do you get to where you want to be with supply during the year? Or does it take longer? If you can just give us an update on how you're thinking about supply here?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So overall, the demand, as Cristiano mentioned in his prepared remarks, extremely strong across the board. And so we are continuing to see demand outpacing supply. As you rightly mentioned, we had put plans in place very early in the process, anticipating some of these challenges. And you're seeing the benefit of that, right? We have three second sourcing parts, especially in the mid high tiers that are shipping at scale now, and that shows up in our financial performance. And we have additional parts coming up as well. So that's definitely something that's helping us. The second is we're seeing capacity builds from some of our suppliers, and that's playing a role as well. As you look forward, we expect supply to continue to improve gradually through the year, in addition to where we are at now. And this entire picture, obviously, as you'd expect, is factored into our guidance.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, it's Cristiano. Nothing more to add, other than, in simple terms, we see supply improvements. Our forward guide, it contemplates the visibility we have in supply. And -- but we still have more demand than supply. We'll ship more, if we could.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Good evening. I wanted to ask about the commentary about the June quarter and the second half of the calendar year, your commentary there. Can you give a little more color on that? It's not typical for you to provide color two quarters in advance. So I imagine it's purposeful of why you're doing that. And maybe talk a little bit about the second half of the calendar year. Is that really a function of more supply coming on, allowing you to perhaps balance supply and demand as you get to the second half of the calendar year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Chris. Thanks for the question. So, overall, when you look at our fiscal year, we are tracking well ahead of plan. We're very, very happy with how the year is playing out for us. And that obviously puts us in a very strong position to meet and exceed our long-term Investor Day targets. If you look at the first half outperformance, beyond that, as we go into the third fiscal quarter, we are projecting EPS growth of at least 30%, an opportunity beyond that. And then as you get into the September quarter, as you know well, that's kind of the next inflection point for us with launches -- additional phone launches in -- across several major OEMs. So we're going to -- we're expecting very strong year-over-year growth in the September quarter as well. Also, when you look beyond handsets and we look at second half of fiscal 2022, RF front end, IoT and automotive all are poised to continue to show very strong year-over-year growth as we go through the year. So, generally, when you step back, we had a very strong second half fiscal 2021. Fiscal 2022 is shaping up just like that, very strong year-over-year growth rates.
Chris Caso:
That's very helpful. Thanks. In addition to the longer-term goals you presented at the Analyst Day, you also talked about fiscal 2022 guidance for at least 20% EPS growth. Based on what you're saying for June, again, it seems like you're well ahead of that as well. Any commentary update on that fiscal 2022 guidance?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Chris, that's the right conclusion. We're tracking well ahead of it. We're not updating that number yet. But I think based on the guidance that you have for second fiscal quarter and third fiscal quarter and the comments I gave on the fourth, what you're drawing is a very reasonable conclusion.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the question. I was just taking a look and we've been looking at this for a while, the quarter-on-quarter marginal contribution. So the QCT marginal contribution, if I look at the change in EBT and the change in revenue, I'm calculating 58% there in this quarter. And I know some of that is scaling, but I wonder if there's any way you could maybe at least give us some color on how much of that is the new marginal sales in QCT being higher margin and how much of it is just scaling effect on the revenue? Thanks. And then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Rod, just to confirm -- and this is Akash. Just to confirm, your question was about the actuals for the December quarter?
Rod Hall:
Yes. So Akash, what all I've done is taken the EBT of the December quarter less the EBT of the September quarter and put it over the revenue difference.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Correct. Correct. Great. So I think it's a great story. You're seeing a combination of all three drivers, right? You have revenue scale benefiting us. Gross margin strength quarter-over-quarter also benefiting us. And then operating leverage of the business. So it's a combination of all three. And we're pretty excited that not just gross margin performance was great. When you look at operating margins as well, 35% is really a great benchmark for us. It's the highest margin in a long time for us. So pretty excited about where we are at and where we're going with it.
Rod Hall:
Great. Thanks. And then on my follow-up, I wanted to ask you, Cristiano, if you could maybe comment on the -- there's been a lot of noise in the high-end Android chip market about upcoming competition and so on. And I just wonder maybe could you comment on the competitive environment a little bit there, what you're seeing -- what you anticipate seeing in the next six or nine months? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Happy to do it. Before I answer that question, I just want to add one thing to the prior question that Akash answered. Look, we've been talking about our one technology roadmap that really scales, and this is exactly what you see as our diversification strategy unfolds and more or more of the revenue coming towards QCT from non-handset business, it gives us scale to the business, is all accretive to margins, and I think that's reflected in the numbers. And I think that will continue to be the story as we are able to leverage the road map. Now back to your question on competition, we're very happy where we are. Look, I provided a metric that we not usually do that in my prepared remarks. When we launched the new Snapdragon 8 series, we had 50 million views in -- of the launch event. And we have done that simultaneously both in the United States as well in 2 different locations in China. Snapdragon is becoming the preferred brand for premium tier Android. Not a single one of our customers think about flagship without thinking of Snapdragon 8 series. It's a very strong position to be in. As our customers move to the premium tier, we're seeing that turn into gains of share of the market for Qualcomm. That's why Android is the story of our handset business right now. And the reality is, as we look at the OEM share shift that happened in China, there's plenty of opportunity for us to grow and our competitors to grow. And I expect that we'll continue to have good results, and more and more our customers will be betting on the Snapdragon brand.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Thanks. Congratulations on the results also. I guess question for me on the $10 billion SAM opportunity within Android that you've previously highlighted, how do you think much of that benefiting this first half of the year guidance? And how much further you think you have to go in penetrating that SAM?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Mike, this is Akash. What's really happening with the $10 billion SAM opportunity is with the OEM mix change in China, all of our customers, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Honor, they're all picking up share. And as they pick up share and also go up tier, going into the high and the premium tier, as Cristiano just outlined, it gives us a tremendous opportunity to tap into it. So we've done a lot of it through, obviously, our products being great, but also working on the second sources that we mentioned in our prepared remarks. We still think that there is an opportunity to continue to expand into that SAM going forward.
Mike Walkley:
Right. And just my follow-up question. I think you previously highlighted to start the first half of the year, you've kind of prioritized the strong Android premium tier handsets. And you talked about demand outstripping supply. Is it get to maybe a softer handset quarter in the June quarter? Should we see maybe automotive and IoT start to close that supply-demand balance and those businesses maybe accelerate in terms of a sequential growth trend?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Mike. We're definitely -- that's a decision that we definitely make where if we can bias the supply in certain directions based on the market demands, we take advantage of that. And so it's something that we'll definitely do as we get to the June quarter.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Let me just add one thing. I want to -- hopefully, this will explain. We're seeing demand for all of our product lines. We're seeing more demand than supply right now. I think demand continues to be up, but I think we're a very fortunate position to be in. When you think about the handset business, and you did see this very high growth rate on Android, 60% growth of Android within the quarter, we prioritize supply, as we said in the prior quarters, for the Chinese New Year launches. We will still have more demand than supply in all the growth business. As we go through the next quarter, you're going to see the growth business, and a lot of the non-handset business could growing, and then the next inflection point for handsets is the holiday season, which is our September quarter. And as we expect supply improvements throughout the year, I think we'll be able to continue to drive growth in all business. We're very happy with how the year is unfolding. And as I said, our supply picture is reflected in our forward guide. Having said that, demand continue to go up, and it's a good thing.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to ask about chipset gross margins in the quarter. I know you don't report them. But if I sort of stare at it, I think they probably were up a couple of hundred basis points. And I find that interesting just given the relative strength of handsets versus the adjacencies, which I think do have higher margins. Was that just the Android strength that you talked about that drove that margin in the quarter? And then how should we think about that into March as sort of the mix reverses? But you should have some of the higher margins of the adjacencies actually growing sequentially into March. I mean is there room for more margin expansion as we go into the next quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Stacy, it's Akash. So it's a combination of, obviously, the adjacent outside non-handsets businesses helping the gross margin. Within handsets, you're seeing the benefit come through, especially as premium and high-tier devices at the high end of Android are being consumed, and we're selling into that market. And as you'll see in the guidance that we gave, we are still continuing to be optimistic with the gross margin picture.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the buyback. You bought back quite a bit of stock, I believe, in the quarter. And I think at the Analyst Day, you talked about buybacks is only really being anti-dilutive. But it looks like we are seeing share counts come down. I guess how should we be thinking about the buyback going forward given the cash generation? And I noticed this quarter, you didn't guide the share count on a more structural level. It does look like it's down a little lower. Should we be thinking about share count continue to go down through the year given the capital return that we're seeing?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Stacy, no change on the framework that we've given on buybacks before. We're continuing to focus on prioritized anti-dilutive buybacks and opportunistically look for -- on top of that, if we can do additional buybacks. And so what you're seeing in the quarter is a portion of that showing up, but fundamentally, our framework doesn't change.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi. I have two questions. The first one is other suppliers of Apple noted that orders for March in -- were strong, but then at least one of them said that the guidance for June is very weak because there's going to be a reversion to the mean. And the question I have is, is there any concentration of QCT handsets this that gives you some concerns over any big customer that might be reducing orders that there is any abnormal behavior this quarter might be reducing orders later on? That's my first question.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Yes. Tal, nothing to look there. I mean there isn't a story. We're going -- Apple is going to have their buying pattern across the quarters. And so that will flow through. But really, our focus is on the Android market, and there isn't a specific story that we're worried about there. Our position is good, and design traction going forward looks great.
Tal Liani:
Okay. The second question, and I don't know how to look at it, but when I look at handset revenues, we are well above the consensus estimates. But RF, auto and IoT, you reported below -- slightly below consensus estimates for the quarter. And I'm just wondering, is there any -- first of all, can you discuss the quarter for these non-handset markets or maybe RF as part of handsets? And then can you discuss seasonality? What -- these are new markets, relatively speaking. What should we think about seasonality here?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Sure. So, Tal, as we had said at previous earnings call, December being a strong quarter for the handset business. We definitely prioritized business over some of the other new opportunities. Still great demand in those areas. And as we go forward, you'll see that growth rates ramp in each of those businesses. It's reflected in our guidance. As I said in my prepared remarks, we expect auto and IoT to see strong sequential growth in the second quarter and also a strong year-over-year growth. As you look at the second half of the year, you're going to see the same trend, strong year-over-year growth across the board.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi guys. Thanks for letting me ask a few questions. Whether it's Cristiano or Akash, I'm not sure who this is better aligned to, but I wanted to see what your strategy is on the pricing side of the equation. Costs are increasing. Everybody is trying to get more supply. Are you passing along those costs? Is it margin accretive? And how are you using price on the revenue side of things as a tailwind? Should we be assuming that some of the goodness that we're seeing year-over-year is coming from the price side of the equation or not?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks, Ross. This is Cristiano. Thanks for the question. Here's how you should think about it. One thing that probably separate us, we've been very focused in premium and high-tier devices, high-value devices, a lot of new technology. And, therefore, it's -- we're kind of less impacted by semiconductor cost increases. It's more about the value of the platform we offer. The second part of the answer is what we said, I think, earlier. Our one technology roadmap really scales. And as we use the technology in our R&D to serve more markets, we gained scale with our application processor in premium Android, and Android becomes the key story of mobile, not the modem. It's really the application processor. And the Snapdragon 800 is the key story. Plus, we have the processing and connectivity into automotive and IoT. It is accretive to margins. The business gains scale, and those are highly profitable, I think, product offerings. So those two things have a factor, and it's reflected in the QCT 35% operating margin.
Ross Seymore:
Thanks for the color. I guess as my follow-up, one probably for Akash, on the OpEx side of things. It looks like the March quarter is doing what it typically does in your guidance, up seasonally. Any puts and takes for the rest of the year that would be different than your traditional seasonality in that line?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Not really. It will be consistent with our historical seasonality. The one thing to keep in mind is as we closed the Veoneer transaction, they'll become a factor in our OpEx trend going forward. But overall, there's -- you should expect the trend to be consistent with historical.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you very much. Good afternoon everybody. Cristiano, I wanted to -- a lot of the conversation here has been focused on supply versus demand for your products and the wafers and et cetera that takes to make your products. But a lot of the calls we all do in semis, we're hearing about match [ph] set issues and kitting issues for your end customers making devices. And what I've heard more about in the last six months and I expect to going forward is, is maybe a push by Qualcomm to use your scale to help your OEM customers get the remainder of the kit to make phones, pushing people more closely to be strictly aligned around the reference design where you can control more of the components in those reference designs. I wonder if you're finding your scale to be an advantage, one. And number two, does that have implications on attach rates of RF and other types of components that might generate revenue for Qualcomm in those designs? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question. Here is -- it's a complicated thing here. I'll try to provide a simple answer. Look, when we talk, for example -- and I was just going to pick this product an example. We talked about Snapdragon 8 Series Generation 1, and it's a leading node SoC, but it has a lot of attach. Yes, yes. The transceiver has entire front end attach. It has power management IC. And at the end of the day, when we provide a chipset solution to our customers, we need capacity across a number of different nodes. So when we think about multi-sourcing our products and put capacity expansion plans in place, so we have supply to support both our handsets in the growth business, we have been building capacity across all those different technologies. And as an example, when you think of things like a power management IC or even transceiver, we work with four or five foundries. So in the semiconductor supply chain shortage, it is across everything. Now having said that, the second part of the answer is, scale has been very helpful. Two things have been very helpful for Qualcomm. One is the high predictability we have on our demand. We can bet on ourselves, and therefore, we have the ability to make long-term capacity planning and get long-term capacity commitments from our vendors. And also, the scale that we have to be able to utilize multisourcing, that has put us in a good position to navigate through this. Now having said that, so I'll repeat what I said before, we still have more demand than supply, even though we're very happy with the growth rates and how good was the quarter, the guide how we've been managing, I think the seasonality between handsets and the growth business. But -- and as we said, supply is going to get better as we get to the second half of 2022.
Matt Ramsay:
Very helpful. Thank you for that. Just as a follow-up. On the auto business, you guys presented a very compelling story around ADAS at the Investor Day, but I was a bit surprised that the Ultra Cruise announcement so quickly. Congrats on that. Maybe if you could give a little bit more details behind that relationship with GM and if you have other irons in the fire of similar profile. Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question. Automotive is really an incredible opportunity for Qualcomm. We're super excited about everything is happening automotive, has happened in a very short period of time. And I think we have something that is very unique. It's separate us from everybody else. So it's not about having a component. It's about creating a digital chassis with capabilities in all domains, from connecting the car to the cloud, telematics, the entire immersive digital cockpit experience and, of course, ADAS and autonomy, plus a service platform. GM is, as we said, a cornerstone customer that is not only looking into the capability of ADAS, and we're super proud of the work with them, on both the Super Cruise and Ultra Cruise, but also the ability to look of the entire chassis. BMW was another one, which we announced towards our Analyst Day. At CES, we announced Renault as an addition to the digital chassis. We -- you should expect that we have a lot of other irons in the fire. And overall, automotive is a good story for Qualcomm. It's something that we can actually take a platform approach and take some of the things we have done in mobile, it's take the technology to scale up and down to every tier of automobile. And I think we're just in the beginning of having more ADAS design wins and having the chassis be recognized as a key platform going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could talk about RF for the year, the RF businesses ability to keep pace with handsets overall. And kind of what are the metrics we should look at as millimeter wave roll out kind of more broadly an important factor? Or is it content growth in the sort of next 200 million 5G handsets, just how are you thinking about overall RF for the year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Joe, its Akash. If you go back to what we said at Analyst Day and the target that we set for the RF business, really, no change there, '22 is playing out as we expected. It's on-track to position us to achieve the target that we laid out. You should also think of RF as not just handsets. And today, most of the business is handsets, but we're going to have RF opportunities with 5G and automotive, with 5G and IoT and then WiFi RF as well. So tremendous growth opportunities outside of handsets that's in front of us. On millimeter wave, the guidance that we gave at Analyst Day did not have any heroic assumptions of growth of millimeter wave globally. We think of that as an upside opportunity.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is coming from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes, thanks very much. I have a question for Cristiano. You talked a lot about Android strength this year. But I guess on China smartphones, we've seen some volatility in sort of sell-in versus sell-through last quarter. Is this sort of typical kind of buildup ahead of Chinese New Year that we should expect? And I guess when you look at new product launches in China, last year, we didn't get any new premium Android launches in the June quarter. Nothing meaningful from Chinese customers. So I'm just keen to get your perspective around demand from Chinese customers in the March and June quarters as things look a little bit more volatile than we'd expect?
Cristiano Amon:
No, it's a great question. And I think as we've been trying to talk about on this call, when you think about the handset Android revenue for us and the growth for having in Android, you see a lot of growth right now. You saw that 60% year-over-year growth of Android, and we also have sequential growth. That's because of the Chinese New Year. And we're more skewed towards premium and high tier. And then we have -- the next inflection point will be the holiday season. And I think this is all contemplated in our guide. And the market -- we continue to see demand high. And because I think we're more concentrated in the premium and high tiers, we have been a little bit less impacted by some of the puts and takes that you see towards in the mid and the low tier of handsets.
Brett Simpson:
Great. Thanks Cristiano. And maybe just a follow-up on Windows and ARM. I mean this is something you guys have led over the last, I don't know, 3 or 4 years, but can you talk a bit about your share ambitions? I mean what do you think that an ARM platform and Windows ecosystem can command on a sort of 2 or 3-year view with -- especially with the NUVIA asset you've got now and the McKenna [ph] project? Any sort of market share ambitions you can share with us, just to give us some perspective on how you see this opportunity playing out? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Great question. Look, let's talk about short term, and then let's talk about midterm. The way we look at this -- and we have been very clear and very consistent with our vision. At the end of the day, for Qualcomm, it's inevitable that you're going to have a big portion of the PC market moving towards the connected ARM platform. I think you saw that happening already with Apple, when you think about the Apple devices. And then when you think about the use cases of PC, PCs are changing at least for the workhorse of a laptop. It's about cameras. It's about connectivities. It's about multimedia. It's about streaming with 5G, including streaming of gaming, etcetera. So our view is very clear. There's going to be a big portion of the market is going to transition to an ARM architecture. And when you think of everybody else in the industry, we are the best positioned company to do that for the Windows ecosystem. I think that's reflected not only in the developments and the partnership we have with Microsoft for the years, but also the acquisition of NUVIA. Short term, as we prepare for Windows 11, Windows 11 is really the time that you have the ARM ecosystem able to support 32-bit, 64-bit. You have things like the Android apps coming to Windows. Our new partner we just announced, the 8cx Gen 3. We talk about CES about having now the device being tested in 200 large enterprises. And it's a step function. We'll continue to work with our partners on that transition. But I think every OEM that you're going to talk to, especially on the PC Windows side, they believe there's going to be a room for ARM-based laptop, and that's what Qualcomm is doing.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. First of all, I would like to thank everyone for joining on the call today. I'm really excited for what 2022 will bring. Demand for technology is accelerating across virtually every sector, and we remain at the beginning of one of the largest opportunities in our history. Our one technology road map with -- in comparable capabilities in wireless communications, low-power advanced computing and on-device AI extends from mobile to automotive and IoT, expanding our addressable market by more than seven times to approximately $700 billion in the next decade. In closing, we have the vision and the execution capabilities that will ensure we are at the forefront of innovation. As the world transforms, we will continue to move early and quickly to address these new opportunities and deliver technologies that enable industries and communities to advance. Most important, I would like to thank our 45,000 employees worldwide. I'm incredibly proud of the significant achievements we made. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question press star, then the number two. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the numbers. Please limit your questions to one question and one follow up. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 3rd, 2021. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13723721. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez - Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you. And good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release in a slide presentation that accompany this call on an Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements and clean projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results. It could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from QUALCOMM's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As the pace of digital transformation of industries accelerates and as devices become connected and more intelligent, our broad portfolio of technologies and solutions is creating a significant long-term growth opportunity for us. As you can see from our results, the performance in our chipset business led to record fiscal fourth-quarter non-GAAP revenues of $9.3 billion and record non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.55. Notably, this is our fifth consecutive quarter of greater than a 100% year-over-year EBT growth in our chipset business. We also demonstrated revenue diversification with combined, our RF Front end, automotive and IoT fiscal '21 revenues exceeding $10 billion, an increase of 69% year-over-year. Going forward, our chipset business represents the largest growth engine for us, as virtually all devices at the Edge adopt mobile technologies. We have the relevant technologies required that continued to lead the mobile and the connected intelligent Edge. And as the Edge gains scale in connectivity and adopts own device artificial intelligence, we're well-positioned to become a leader in AI processing. Let me now briefly highlight the strong momentum we continue to see in IoT across consumer, edge networking, and industrial. In consumer, we're pleased that our XR platforms are powering over 50 commercial devices and gaining scale with the leading VR and AR ecosystems. Our early investments have established Snapdragon XR as a device platform of choice for connecting physical and digital spaces. And recent market developments position us as one of the key enablers of the Metaverse opportunity. Additionally, the ongoing conversions of mobile and compute continues to drive demand for Snapdragon power premium tablets, two-in-ones, and laptops. We are pleased with the strong market validation of ARM-based personal computing in the industry transition to a new SoC architecture. We're more confident than ever in the connected computing opportunity, our upcoming solutions powered by our NUVIA CPUs, and our collaboration with Microsoft. We're also seeing increased traction in consumer electronics. Our advanced technologies are powering category-leading devices, such as the Peloton Bike Plus and Tread, as well as the Astral, Amazon's recently announced household robot. In Edge networking, we are a leader in current and next-generation high-performance Wi-Fi 6 and Wi - Fi 6E access point solutions. And we continue to see high demand for our products driven by home and enterprise upgrade cycles. We expect this trend to continue as productivity increasingly requires video collaboration, as well as Cloud processing and storage. 5G, as wireless fiber is now a reality in gaining scale in the United States, Verizon recently announced 5G home Internet service availability in 57 markets, including more than 2 million households covert on millimeter wave. In addition, T-Mobile is leveraging their 5G network to target 7 million to 8 million home broadband customers over the next 5 years. We're seeing demand increase globally, making 5G wireless fiber, one of the fastest-growing last mile broadband technologies. In industrial, we have expanded our Qualcomm IoT services suites to more than 30 verticals. As an example, in retail, our solutions are powering digital signage, payment, and self-checkout devices from companies like Square and Clover, as well as solutions from Honeywell, Pennisonic, Zebra, and others to enable new customer experiences, help empower store associates and improve operational efficiencies. We also continue to lead the way on product innovation, with new launches like the Qualcomm Flight RB5, the world first 5G AI drone platform. In RF Front End, we expanded our product portfolio with our recently announced ultraBAW RF Filter Technology that supports frequencies from 2.7 gigahertz to 7.2 gigahertz. This is the new industry benchmark for performance in this range. ultraBAW Technology also supports Wi - Fi bands, including 5 gigahertz, the newly adopted 6 gigahertz band for Wi - Fi 6E and future Wi - Fi standards. This creates a new growth factor for RF Front End. As we attach RF Solutions to Wi - Fi. Our RF Front End portfolio, combining ultraSAW, and ultraBAW Technologies, is now best in class from 600 megahertz to 7 gigahertz. And with the addition of millimeter wave, we are the only RF front-end provider with a comprehensive solution for all bands. As Cellular expands beyond handsets, we're focused on extending our modem to antenna platform to automotive and IoT. In our automotive, we're creating a leading horizontal and open platform with our Snapdragon Digital Chassis, which includes our Telematics, digital cockpit, card to cloud service, ADAS, and autonomy solutions. Taking the same approach we used to make the smart phone, the world's largest computing and developer platform, we're currently working with automakers and Tier 1s to create a joint roadmap to build multi-tier, multi-generation, scalable, and upgradable platforms for long-term sustainable business. The strength of our digital chassis strategy is reflected in both our results, as well as a strong design pipeline and it's creating a platform for innovation, for Auto. We are also very excited about Arriver. Upon closing, Snapdragon Ride, ADAS Solutions will be complemented with Arriver 's computer vision, drive policy in driver-assistant assets, enhancing our ability to deliver on an open and competitive ADAS platform for automakers in tier-1s at scale. In handsets, we're successfully executing on our strategy. Our premium tier Snapdragon solutions continue to gain traction with OEMs. In fiscal Q4, devices announced or shipped with our Snapdragon premium-tier products increased by 21% year-over-year. Notably, all leading 5G Android smartphones OEMs, by volume, continued to power their flagship devices of Snapdragon. Snapdragon continues to be the preferred choice for premium and high-tier Android smartphones in all regions. As a result, we're benefiting from the changing OEM landscape and Android SAM expansion. Lastly, our licensing business achieved fiscal '21 revenues in excess of $6.3 billion. QTL remains the most successful licensing business in the industry, reflecting the strength of our innovation in seller technology, the value of our extensive patent portfolio in our execution in securing long-term agreements with key OEMs, as well as over 150 5G agreements to date. As we have noted throughout the year, we continue to see incredibly strong demand across all our technologies as the current environment, is accelerating the scale of connectivity and processing at the edge. We still expect material improvements to our supply by the end of the calendar year, and our second sourcing initiatives remain on track. Before I turn the call over to Akash, I would like to highlight that, we recently announced a goal to achieve net 0 global emissions for scopes 1, 2, and 3 by 2040. We also look forward to enabling a more sustainable future with 5G through its impact on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, energy and water use optimization, green jobs creation, and more. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you Cristiano and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to announce record fourth fiscal quarter results with non-GAAP revenues of $9.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.55. Reflecting year-over-year growth of 43% and 76% respectively. For QCT, this was another record quarter with revenues of $7.7 billion and EBT margin of 32%, both above the high-end of our guidance. QCT EBT of $2.5 billion grew by 143% versus the year-ago quarter on revenue growth of 56% and 12 points of EBT margin expansion. We also delivered record revenues in each of QCT revenue streams, handsets, RF Front End, IoT, and automotive. Handset revenues of $4.7 billion increased 56% year-over-year on strong demand across all major OEMs. RF front-end revenues of $1.2 billion grew 45% year-over-year, and included the benefit of full enough demand in advance of certain holiday launches. IoT revenues were up 66% year-over-year to $1.5 billion as digital transformation continues to drive higher demand across our diversified customer base. Automotive revenues of $270 million grew 44% year-over-year on the ramp of digital cockpit launches and continued strength in telematics. QTL revenues of $1.6 billion and EBT margins of 72% were in line with guidance. These results reflect slightly lower-than-expected units offset by favorable mix. Lastly, we delivered GAAP EPS of $2.45, $0.47 above the high-end of our guidance, driven by record non-GAAP earnings and approximately 500 million of gains in our QSI investment portfolio. Now, I would like to highlight some key achievements in fiscal '21. We are exceeding all targets we set at our 2019 Analyst Day, which is a year earlier than forecasted. We delivered year-over-year revenue growth of 26% in QTL and 64% in QCT. And more than doubled non-GAAP EPS to $8.54. In QCT, we had greater than 50% year-over-year growth in each of our revenue streams. And EBT margins expanded from 17% in fiscal '20 to 29% in fiscal '21. Within handsets, our Android revenues for our Snapdragon chipsets were approximately 40% higher than our primary competitor. With our focus on diversification, RF Front End, automotive, and IoT, accounted for 38% of total QCT revenues. Lastly, we returned 74% of our free cash flow to stockholders, including $3 billion in dividends and $3.4 billion in stock repurchases. Turning to our guidance for handset units and the first fiscal quarter. For calendar 2021, we are narrowing the range for 5G handsets to 500 to 550 million units. We're now forecasting mid to high single-digit growth in global 3G, 4G, 5G handsets, relative to Calendar 2020. For the first fiscal quarter, we are forecasting revenues of $10 to $10.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.90 to $3.10. In QCT, we expect revenues of $8.4 billion to $8.9 billion, an EBT margins of 32% to 34%. At the midpoint, this implies year-over-year revenue growth of 32% and EBT dollar growth of 49%. The sequential revenue growth is driven by handsets due to higher demand primarily for our Snapdragon chipsets in Android devices. Following the record performance in the fourth quarter, we expect non-handset revenues to remain in line sequentially. Consistent with our previous guidance, we expect QTL revenues of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, and EBT margins of 74% to 78%. This forecast assumed sequential unit growth in line with historical trends. Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to decrease 2% to 3% sequentially. As a reminder, operating expenses are typically higher in the second fiscal quarter, as it includes calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs. Looking forward, fiscal '22 will be another exciting year for Qualcomm, with year-over-year EPS growth expected to exceed 20% driven by strength across all QCT revenue streams. In handsets, we are positioned to benefit from the 10 billion SAM expansion due to the changing OEM landscape. A portion of this benefit, is reflected in our first-quarter guidance. And we also expect it to contribute to the rest of fiscal '22. Before I finish my prepared remarks, I would like to thank our employees for their leadership and contributions in making 2021 successful. Finally, we look forward to seeing you at our Investor Day on November 16, where we will provide additional detail about our growth strategy. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we're now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. To queue a question, press star than the number one. To withdraw your question, press star two. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the numbers. Our first question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James, please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Good evening. For my first question, perhaps you could help us out with what was different from your expectations heading into this quarter. I know that you were struggling with supply constraints like everyone else in the industry. Was it that the supply came on better than you expected? Was it the demand, was it a combination of both?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Chris, this is Akash. It was really a combination of both. We were -- we had lots of strength in QCT really across all of our revenue streams with handsets, IoT and RF Front End, those are the three areas that did really well. Relative to our expectations. And we were able to work through the supply constraints to address the demand that came up. So it was really a combination of both.
Chris Caso:
Great. And maybe you could expand on your comments, you spoke about -- and I think I have this right, EPS growth expected to exceed 20% as you go into next year. Can you give us some details? I'm sure that's something that, you're planning on hitting as you go into the Analyst Day.
Cristiano Amon:
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, just to clarify, what we guided is non-GAAP EPS growth of greater than 20%. And the key driver for that is really across all QCT revenue streams. So you're seeing the strength exiting the year, and that's the strength that's playing out both in our first-quarter guidance and also the full-year. The one thing I would highlight is within handsets, we're really in a strong position to benefit from the 10 billion SAM expansion we've previously discussed from the changing OEM landscape. And a portion of this benefit is reflected in our first quarter guidance, and that's also contemplated in the greater than 20% EPS growth we are suggesting.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Given that, we expect handsets to grow faster than non-handsets in fiscal '22. But really across-the-board, we'll have very strong growth rates and really set up to do well in the year and beyond.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen, please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes.Thank you very much. Good afternoon, guys. And congrats on the results. Cristiano, I wanted to dig a little bit with you into the guidance for the December quarter in QCT. I think you guys mentioned in the script that that was primarily going to be driven by your Android business and increase supply. So I just wanted to make sure that I got that right. Obviously, that's a seasonally strong quarter for Cupertino, but I just wanted to dig a little bit more into the dynamics that are driving the fourth-quarter and Android. Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
No, thanks Matt for the question. Look, I think what you're starting to see exactly the correlation is going a different direction. You're correct, is a seasonally stronger quarter for our modem only shipments, but the sequential revenue growth is primarily driven by Android handsets. And demand for Snapdragon mobile platforms, both across premium and high tier. And consistent why we said, we see an incredible opportunity to grow way faster than the market. And Android is the primarily growth driver in our handset business right now.
Matt Ramsay:
Very clear. Thank you. Akash is my follow-up, 33% QCT op margins in the December quarter.Obviously, there was a settlement with Apple and some things changed there, but that number I think was 13%, 2 years ago. So I guess it's pretty remarkable progress. I wonder if you might talk a little bit more and maybe this is something for a couple of weeks from now at the Analyst Day, but, the puts and takes and drivers of the QCT op margin going forward and where are we? Is this this a seasonal peak or is this a new trend? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Matt, thanks for the question. Yeah, we're very pleased by the operating margin performance as well. So maybe I'll point to a couple of drivers, but really, we're planning to address this in a lot more detail in a couple of weeks. I'll ask you to hold until then. If you see our gross margin performance in the September quarter that we just reported, very strong gross margins. And we are forecasting in similar range going into the December quarter. And then year-over-year, if you look at the full-year, so abstract back from the seasonality, we went from 17% in fiscal '20 to 29% in fiscal '21. And so, we feel, obviously, very comfortable with that number, and in a couple of weeks, we'll talk about how the combination of revenue growth and gross margin percentage and R&D leverage will take us going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Thank you. Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess, Cristiano, Akash both of you are sounding great on -- and great adoption of your premium chipsets going into the December quarter. I just wanted to see if I can get some more color about how you're thinking about adoption of millimeter wave with the Android customers. I know there has been some investor conversation or disappointment around the primary customer not deploying a more widely rolling out millimeter wave this year. So just wanted to get what you're seeing in the pipeline, we're talking millimeter wave, and how our Android customers are sounding about that. And I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi Samik, thanks for asking the question. Our position on millimeter wave remains unchanged, and will remain unchanged. There are 2, I think, answers your question, the first one is continue to track exactly as we'd expected. We have millimeter wave in United States, is now commercially available in Japan across all carriers, DOCOMO, SoftBank, KTDI, even a new carrier, Rakuten. And we continue to be optimistic about the opportunity of millimeter-wave becoming commercial overtime in China, the first milestone is the millimeter-wave for the Winter Olympics early 2022.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Japan is moving for a millimeter wave. And nothing has changed the carriers plans to continue to build the technology. And there are a number of commercial millimeter-wave smartphones in Japan that's include the Galaxy Note, the Gal -- GS21, and Galaxy Fold, and Sony. And from our perspective, just knowing what we know of wireless and how the growth of data is going in the spectrum efficiency, millimeter wave is inevitable, it's just a matter of time. And it's just different markets will deploy at different speeds, but that's how we get more Spectrum and our position of millimeter wave remains unchanged.
Samik Chatterjee:
Thank you. For my follow-up, if I can ask you right where you've got some investors asking about how to think about the opportunity with Arriver and how should we think about OEM customers that are looking for a full stack solution versus OEMs that look for more of just the hardware piece of that stack and leveraging Qualcomm from that aspect. And then if you can provide any updates. I think you've updated us on the purchase price along with SSA partners, but what -- any more details around the closing as well as the price for Qualcomm standalone for the Arriver assets?
Cristiano Amon:
We're very excited about the Veoneer acquisition and Arriver Technology. As we said before, with the natural owners of that asset, we were -- believe we're on track to get the ability to get all the approvals and close on this transaction. And more important, as we had a business preparation in place with Veoneer, prior to the acquisition, that remains unchanged and allow us to continue to progress towards our ADAS platform. We're getting incredibly positive feedback from the market, from the ability to provide truly open horizontal platform for ADAS and I highly encourage you to be at our New York Analyst Day, we have a lot more details to provide about what we're doing in ADAS on autonomy.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, I was curious just given the current state of the handset market, what kind of handset growth you have embedded in your more than 20% EPS forecast for 2022? Are you are looking for recovery, or is it all around content? How are we thinking about our unit growth in the market to drive that?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Stacy, for the guidance that we gave, there are no heroic assumptions on market growth. We are assuming similar scale to this year. And within that, we feel comfortable that we have the opportunities in front of us to grow.
Stacy Rasgon:
So it feel like mid to high single-digit?
Akash Palkhiwala:
That's right.
Stacy Rasgon:
Thank you. For my follow-up, I know you've had supply issues, I know they're resolving by the end of the calendar year. Are you still under-shipping what you could ship, if you had supply and is that supply eases up, does that have any impact on how we might think about typical seasonality in the March quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Stacy, it's Akash. So we do have constraints really across-the-board and you have to figure out how the demand would have played out if there was supply across the industry. But we feel pretty comfortable that the overall supply picture is playing out exactly as we had planned. We saw this coming early and we've been talking about it for the last couple of quarters. And we have put in place plans both for dual sourcing for certain parts. We've now announced three parts that are dual sourced, that are available. And then also capacity expansions with our suppliers that were previously being planned. Anyways, come in towards the end of the year. So that's definitely something that we are very excited about. On your question on the second quarter, we're obviously not guiding the quarter at this point, but it's a reasonable assumption to think that, as we launch our new Android premium-tier chip in the first quarter of the calendar year, that will offset some of the decline you would see in the handset market naturally within QCT. And then of course we also expect non-handset to grow from first quarter to second quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys, I have 2 questions, so I'll just ask them together, what are the trends in China, meaning the headset market is weakening, and we heard it throughout the quarter? And on the other hand, there is Huawei share loss and your share gains. I'm wondering if you can share with us the trends within China and your outlook for the market. And the second question is not related, but it's the second question I'm getting from investors, which is, you always say that the -- when Apple starts using their motives, the surface area Apple is big and there are other opportunities. Can you elaborate what are the other opportunities? What are the -- and maybe give us scenarios. What are the scenarios that you can still manage the transition of Apple using their own motive? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Tal, It's Akash. I'll take the first one, and Cristiano will address the second one. So what we saw in the September quarter and the market was weakness in units in China and emerging markets, but developed markets volume remained very resilient. So that's really the jumping off point for the December quarter. We are forecasting normal seasonality on top of what we saw in September. I'll say that a portion of the weakness was driven by supply imbalances at certain OEMs. And so, that did impact the demand to a certain extent, but that's one of the key factors we saw happening. Within the market though, 5G continues to be very strong, so we are seeing two trends in China. First, is the transition to 5G, there's a variance month-to-month, but very, very strong in the high 70% has already transitioned to 5G. And so we are raising the guidance -- the midpoint of the guidance for 5G to now, 525 million units. And then within that, we're also seeing higher tier of devices, so OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, Honor, all of our customers are moving up tier and, as they move up tier, that creates an incremental opportunity for us. So pretty positive market trends for us.
Operator:
Thank you
Cristiano Amon:
So the Second question -
Operator:
I apologize,
Cristiano Amon:
The second -- Okay. So I'm just going to answer the second question. So the second question, we're very focused right now on our contract with Apple, which is focused on providing modem for their products. We're very happy with their relationship, but anything beyond our contract with them is an upside to our model. And as I continue to say, what I said before, we have a lot of technologies, they have a large number of devices. And if there are opportunities, we'll be very happy to engage with them and supply, we just don't want to speculate at this point. And we've been very clear that our assumptions in our model is just focused on our contract. Everything else is upside.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Congrats on the strong results and guide. Akash or Cristiano, just wanted to talk a little bit about the pairing of the handset in the RF side of things. I know you said that there was a little bit of a pull-in into your fiscal fourth quarter on the RF side of things. But with the Android market share gains that you're talking about heading into the December quarter, why is the RF side not coming along for that ride? And is that pairing something that it's just a transition period, and as we look further out, those are going to be more linked together?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Ross, it's Akash. It's the exactly the right question that, we expect that two to move together in concert. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, and that's why we highlighted that, we did see some pull-in from December quarter to September quarter within RF Front End. And it was really where supply was available, our customers chose to take it sooner than receiving the chipset. And if you normalize for it, the two would have moved together. So we definitely see the growth in the Android opportunity as a tremendous growth factor for us within RF Front End as well.
Ross Seymore:
Thanks for that color. I guess --
Cristiano Amon:
No. Just to be crystal clear, all of this growth opportunity that we've seen in Android, especially the premium high, is coming with RF. I want to make that statement clear.
Ross Seymore:
Okay. Thank you for that, Cristiano. I guess, it's my follow-up. If I talk about QCT X handsets and X RF Front End. It sounds like, Akash, you said those would be relatively flat in December, but then you thought it would actually grow again in March. What's going on in those markets? And then I guess the higher-level question is given the supply constraints, there's a big debate going on in broad-based semis between the investors worried about increased selectivity from customers, changing behaviors, are you seeing some digestion period here? Why is it slowing and then why is it re-accelerating?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So as you saw, we're tremendously strong results both in auto and IoT and record results in both in the fourth fiscal quarter. You're right. Going into the first quarter, we are forecasting in line sequentially. And one of the key factors there is still we are supply constrained, and we're making certain decisions given the strong handset market in that quarter, to allocate supply a little differently based on profitability. But really when you think about the raw demand from the customer continues to be very strong. And so we are confident that when you look at second fiscal quarter or look at fiscal 2021 going to fiscal 2022, both those businesses will grow in a very strong fashion.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could just talk about the overall supply chain and smartphone. And are you seeing bottlenecks at some of your customers where they're unable to procure parts that aren't from Qualcomm that might lead to inventory buildup of Qualcomm parts? It seems like, overall, the handset sell-through numbers are a little weaker because of those constraints, but it doesn't seem like to supply chain has changed at all. Can you just describe that dynamic?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure Joe. So we're definitely seeing some mismatch of parts in the short-term at some of our customers. But you should think of those as, really timing issues. The other thing to keep in mind is that, Cristiano outlined earlier in the call that, we're focusing really on the premium and high-tier units, and so when our customers have supply mismatch, they actually end up supplying the premium in high-tier devices. So our chips and our devices are still being used and it's not something that's a big factor for us in the short-term.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes. Thanks for the question. I wanted to come back to this idea of supply versus demand in the Q1 quarter. I'd heard earlier -- someone mentioned that they were assuming that that supply would be meeting demand. That it seems to -- I just wanted to check that with you. Is that a good assumption or do you think that we'd see supply continuing to rise to meet demand on into the fiscal Q2? And then I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Rod. This is Cristiano. Look, if you remember, we had said, if I believe, two earnings calls ago that we had put -- we act early, we put a lot of things in place, multi-sourcing, capacity expansions, and we said that we expect to see material improvement in our supply towards the end of the calendar year. That's reflected in the Q1 guide, our ability to have supply. We continue to have pockets of areas that we would ship more, if we had more, but we see a lot of improvements, we see at least three announced products of multi-sourcing had been shipped. And we've been executing on that increased supply. And different companies are going to have different outlooks. We, look at the first half of 2022, we still have some shortage. But as we get to the second part the year, in general, supply and demand are going to be aligned.
Rod Hall:
Just, I guess, my question was just aimed at the idea that, this seems like it could continue to be a little bit of a tailwind for you, as you move into the beginning of next year and it's not just magically resolved here at the end of this year. My follow-up is regarding the Android opportunity, I wonder if you guys could comment on content there versus the other big high enhanced that maker you supply. We calculate a substantial increase in content, but I'm just curious, do you agree with that, with -- if you sell a high-end Android phone in January, is that phone going to have materially more content for you than another type of phone might?
Cristiano Amon:
Absolutely. Look, we are very pleased with the strength of our Snapdragon 800 Series. The Snapdragon 800 Series became synonymous with premium Android Flagship smartphones. There's a lot more silicon content besides the RF Front End that's attached to the modem. There's GPU, there's CPU, there's all the multimedia, and it's a lot more richer platform than just selling a modem. And it's a multiple times in terms of revenue and earnings contribution. And when we look of the sum available to us -- when we look at the consolidation of a Snapdragon 800 being the chipset for every Flagship, that's no surprise that we actually grow faster in the Android segments.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
Harsh Kumar:
Hey, guys. First of all, congratulations on tremendous execution and diversification. Had a question. Cristiano, you talked a lot about Android and how positive you are on that. I know you were supposed to get additional supply in the December quarter. You seem to be benefiting from units. Are you benefiting from units primarily or are you also going back and taking share that you were expecting to take from your competitors?
Cristiano Amon:
Look, there's plenty of opportunity with the changing landscape for growth between us and our competitors. I think what's important to highlight, is that Qualcomm has been concentrated into premium and high. There's very high demand for premium and high Snapdragon mobile platforms, both the 700, 800, and it is a share gain of Snapdragon in Android premium. And we're very happy with the opportunity to capture actually the higher value share of the market.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then maybe hard to answer that. I'll just draw your attention to product announcements that we had a couple of weeks ago where we announced a whole new set of 5G products across tiers.
Harsh Kumar:
Great guys and for my follow-up, I wanted to follow up on a question that was asked about the March quarter. You talked about some benefits coming from your premium chipset you'll be launching in the March timeframe, which is seasonally weak. Now, Apple for one, talked about leaving, I think it was $6 billion plus worth of revenues behind on the table. Do you think you might get a benefit from all the handset OEMs that are leaving revenue behind on the table along with your premium? Or you think it's just again, your own chipsets that are getting benefit from launch of new chipsets.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, what I said about the March quarter was really you have a seasonal decline in the handset market, but given the launch of our new chipset, and really, all the other chipset launches we've done over the last month, we feel like we will be in a very strong position to expand our units within the Android market. And then, the second thing I said is non-handset growth. We expect non-handsets, all three to grow within the quarter as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is coming from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. I had two questions. The first Akash was on the RF business. I think you said at the Analyst Day that, you were targeting more than 20% share of an $18 billion TAM next year, but you're now annualizing to almost $5 billion. So either the market's a lot bigger or your share's a lot higher. Can you just comment on that? And then secondly, I had a question on the contract with the big customer. Can you just level set us? Cristiano, you just alluded to it. So can you level set us? I think it goes through 2024, but can you just help us on the timing of that? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Tim, on your first question on the math, $3.6 billion is right, and were reported results at $4.1 billion, I think. So we have definitely exceeded the target we had set. And as Cristiano said earlier in the conversation, we're really confident that, we have several more vectors of growth left in the RF business, not just within handsets, but also as 5G expands into Telematics in IoT. And then also within Wi-Fi. There's some ways to go and we'll definitely plan to address that at Analyst Day in a couple of weeks.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Tim. It's Cristiano. The only thing we can disclose is what we've disclosed before. It is a long-term agreement and it's a multi-year agreement. We unfortunately cannot say anything more than that.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks, everyone for joining us on the call today. We are at the intersection of key trends, their accelerating Edge connectivity, efficient processing, and own device artificial intelligence. This is driving demand for industry-leading roadmap of relevant technologies creating a significant opportunity for growth and continued diversification. In addition to driving the mobile industry to 5G, we will power the connected intelligent Edge. I look forward to outlining our strategy and vision for the future at Investor Day on November 16, and sharing our next generation Snapdragon platforms at our Annual Tech Summit in December. I also want to take a moment to thank our employees for an incredible fiscal year. They are truly the best of QUALCOMM and there is no better time to be part of this great Company.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, July 28, 2021. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13720943. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and the slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. This is an amazing time to be part of Qualcomm. The need for our technologies and products has never been more evident. We're seeing demand across virtually every industry, because our products and technologies are essential ingredients that enable digital transformation in the cloud economy. We are leading and expect to continue to lead in mobile. In addition, we also expect to lead the evolution of the connected intelligent edge by transforming connectivity and processing in cars, the enterprise, the home, smart factories, next-generation PCs and tablets, XR, wearables, and many more. This is the foundation of a revenue diversification strategy. The strong performance in our business has led to fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings per share that exceeded the high-end of our guidance. Most importantly, we are on track to realize approximately $10 billion in combined revenues across IoT, RF front-end and automotive in fiscal year 2021, validating the positive financial impact of our revenue diversification strategy. Let me provide you now with some additional details. The foundation of our IoT strategy is edge connectivity and processing for the growing cloud base economy. In consumer, we're seeing strong demand, driven by a consumer electronics upgrade cycle and growth in emerging product categories, such as XR and wearables. In edge networking, we had another great quarter, with continued momentum driven by the enterprise transformation of the home in this second wave of enterprise demand, driven by return to the workplace. We're also seeing rapid adoption of Wi-Fi 6 and increased demand for both 4G and 5G mobile broadband devices. In industrial, our product offerings are purpose-built for key verticals, such as transportation and logistics, warehousing, video collaboration, smart cameras, retail, and more. We are at the forefront of enabling this new ecosystem and also making 5G for industrial applications a reality. We are becoming the connected intelligent edge partner of choice. As demand for automotive solutions increase, we're pleased to report that our automotive revenue design win pipeline has reached approximately $10 billion. And based on our third quarter results, our annualized automotive revenue run rate is now over $1 billion. This reflects continued traction across global automakers and Tier 1 customers. Our automotive telematics and connectivity platforms, digital cockpit and C-V2X solutions are at the intersection of key automotive industry trends, such as the continued growth of connected vehicles, the transformation of the in-car experience and vehicle electrification. As the digital chasses become one of the most important assets of automakers, we remain well-positioned for continued growth as a leading technology partner for the industry. In RF front-end, we believe we are on track to become the largest smartphone RF front-end supplier by revenue. Looking forward, we expect to have technology leadership across virtually all handset RF front-end components, while continue to lead in modem-to-antenna system performance. Now, I will provide an update on two key drivers for handset revenues. First, we continue to be positively impacted by the growth in 5G and changing OEM landscape, resulting in the expansion of our addressable handset opportunity. Our Snapdragon 8 Series mobile platforms have shown significant design win momentum. More than half of our 5G smartphone design wins to date are using our 8 Series and total design wins for Snapdragon 888 increased more than 20% quarter-over-quarter. We're also seeing strong traction with our Snapdragon 7 Series mobile platforms, with nearly 40 new devices shipped or announced during this last quarter alone. Based on our design win traction and performance of our customers, we have increased confidence in growing our handset revenues. Snapdragon premium and high-tier solutions remain synonymous, with Android flagship mobile experiences. Second, we're still on track to materially improve supply by the end of the calendar year. We're securing incremental capacity across both leading and mature nodes and optimizing the allocation of our products across the global supply chain. We're also making progress with our multi-sourcing initiatives. In fiscal Q3, the Snapdragon 778 G, the first of several products from our multi-sourcing initiatives, was commercialized in record time and is now shipping in volume. Additional products from our multi-sourcing initiatives will be commercialized in the coming months. I would like to thank our employees, our suppliers, and our customers for helping us navigate the challenging supply environment. In our licensing business, our third quarter results reflect the strength of our patent portfolio and the stability of our licensing program. We are a global 5G IP leader with more than 150 5G license agreements signed to date, up from more than one-third at last quarter. We continued to develop and patent new essential innovations for future releases of 5G. And we expect 5G to have a longer lifecycle than prior generations due to its broad application across multiple industries. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report another exceptional quarter in a challenging environment, as we continue to execute on our priorities, including 5G adoption, revenue diversification, and operating leverage. Our third quarter results were above the high-end of our guidance, with non-GAAP revenues of $8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.92. These results reflect 63% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP revenues and more than doubling of EPS, driven by strength across QCT and QTL, including a partial recovery from the impact of COVID in the year ago period. QTL revenues of $1.5 billion and EBT margins of 71% were about the midpoint of our guidance. These results reflect the impact of a stronger mix offset by lower than expected units in China and India. QCT revenues of $6.5 billion and EBT margins of 28% were above the high-end of our guidance. EBT of $1.8 billion nearly tripled versus a year ago period on revenue growth of 70% and 12 points of EBT margin expansion. Handset revenues increased 57% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, driven by the adoption of 5G products in premium and high-tier devices across all major OEMs. Combined RF front-end, IoT and automotive revenues accounted for approximately 40% of total QCT revenues within the quarter and grew 1.6 times faster than handset revenues year-over-year. RF front-end revenues of $957 million more than doubled year-over-year on the strength of our broad product portfolio and customer traction. As a reminder, our RF front-end revenues include power amplifiers, trackers, antenna tuners, filters, diversity and millimeter wave modules, and excludes revenue from RF transceivers. IoT revenues grew 83% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, an increase of approximately $100 million versus guidance. The outperformance was driven by demand across consumer edge networking and industrial platforms. Automotive revenues of $253 million grew 83% year-over-year on the adoption of connected cars and expansion of digital cockpit revenues. Our increasing design win pipeline now puts us on track to exceed the 2024 revenue target outlined that last Investor Day. Turning to our guidance for handset units and fourth fiscal quarter. For calendar 2021, we're maintaining our forecast for high single digit growth for global 3G, 4G, 5G handsets, including 450 to 550 million 5G handsets. Given the strong adoption of 5G in developed regions in China, we have a bias towards the high-end of our 5G forecast. In the fourth fiscal quarter, we are forecasting revenues of $8.4 billion to $9.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 to $2.35. In QTL, we expect revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion and EBT margins of 69% to 73%. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7 billion to $7.5 billion and EBT margins of 29% to 31%. At the midpoint, this implies year-over-year revenue growth of 46% and EBT dollar growth of 114%. The strength of our QCT forecast reflects sequential growth across all revenue streams, including premium and high-tier device launches and operating leverage benefit from extending our mobile technology and investments across IoT and automotive. Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to grow 2% to 3% sequentially. Based on the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, I would like to emphasize some key metrics for fiscal 2021. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $8.24, nearly doubling relative to fiscal 2020. Within QCT, we expect year-over-year revenue growth of $10 billion and operating margin expansion from 17% in fiscal 2020 to 28% in fiscal 2021. With our continued focus on diversification, we're forecasting RF front-end, IoT and automotive combined revenues to grow from $6 billion in fiscal 2020 to $10 billion in fiscal 2021. We expect to exit the fiscal year with a strong product roadmap, expanded design win pipeline, and increased customer traction. Before I finished my prepared remarks, I'd like to highlight a couple items. As part of our ongoing ESG efforts, we recently started purchasing 100% renewable solar energy for our San Diego headquarters, which will significantly reduce our annual greenhouse gas emissions. Lastly, we'll be hosting our Investor Day in New York on November 16th, where we will provide an update on our long-term strategy and financial outlook. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thank you. Congratulations on the strong results. Just wanted to focus on the QCT margins. While June is seemingly a softer quarter, with Apple back in the model, the margins came in above your guidance and you’re guiding to a 30% sequentially. Could you, Akash, maybe provide any estimates, or supply constraints or expedited shipments? Did that adversely impact guidance at all? And is 28% EBT margins, is that now good to think of it as a floor? And if not, what are some puts and takes that might move it lower over time?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Mike, thanks for the question. Really, when you look at our operating leverage performance in the year, we were pretty happy with the way we've seen the operating margin expansion with revenue growth. If you look at what happened in the third quarter, we had a guidance midpoint of 25%. We came in at 28%, and so that's on the strength largely of revenue coming in higher and then strong gross margin performance as well. And then, now we are forecasting a midpoint of 30% in the fourth fiscal quarter. So, really, when you think about it going forward, we plan our margins around revenue scale and R&D investments, and the trick really for us is to optimize those two. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, as we exit the fiscal year, we feel like we're in a very strong position from a design win perspective to continue to grow revenues. And as we optimize investments against it, I think, we have an opportunity to continue to expand our operating margins.
Mike Walkley:
Okay. Thanks. And just for my follow-up, maybe for Cristiano. Just focusing on the IoT business, the impressive 83% year-over-year growth. You – maybe you're going to say this for the Analyst Day, but how should we think about -- what's a reasonable CAGR for this business? And how much of the business today is 5G, and what could 5G do in terms of growing the IoT business?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks Mike. That's a great question. We're very excited about this business for a number of reasons. First, is very diversified. There's a lot of things in our IoT segment. It has consumer, it has networking and it has industrial. And what we see is really secular growth trends, which is all based to an accelerated digital transformation. And we are going to provide a lot more details about how we think about growth rates of this business in our Analyst Day. It is one of the largest SAM expansion opportunity for Qualcomm. It is highly diversified and it has not only higher growth rates than handsets. I think Akash outlined a 1.6 times our non-handset growth rate, but also is accretive to more -- to margins and create operating leverage. So, stay tuned for more, but we're very happy about what we see with IoT right now.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. I guess for the first question, maybe you could talk about what generated the upside in the quarter as compared to your expectations. Was it a matter of getting more supply? Because I know supply constraints were a big concern coming in. And then if you could talk to us about the status of those supply constraints going into the end of the year? You talked about getting some additional supply. Does that benefit the December quarter, or where does that supply come farther out in time?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hey, Chris, it's Akash. So, let me try to answer both of your questions and I'm sure Cristiano can add comments to it. For the third fiscal quarter, as you know, our guidance midpoint was $1.65. We came in at $1.92 and really most of the upside was driven by QCT. We did come in a slightly stronger than QTL, which was really just a trade-off between slightly lower units on -- in India and China, the low tier, but offset by stronger product mix, especially with 5G in various regions. So that helped us. Going over to QCT, what we really liked about the growth that we saw in the quarter is really we saw strength across all the different revenue streams. So, it's not just handsets, but also IoT and RF front-end and auto. And within that, we had a stronger mix, product mix that helped us. And as we just discussed on the IoT side, significant upside, $100 million higher than the revenue guidance we had given. So that helped as well. And then maybe the last thing I'll highlight is gross margin performance. We're pretty happy with the gross margin performance in the quarter. So, those were kind of all the key factors that contributed to it. Turning over to supply. As we said in Cristiano's prepared remarks, consistent with what we provided last time, we continue to expect that supply will improve materially by the end of the year. And it's really a combination of two drivers. We're seeing multi-sourcing initiatives that we've put in place over the last several months. We're seeing the benefit of that as we can use available capacity across the foundries. And then the second is really, previously planned capacity builds with some of our suppliers that comes online towards the end of the year as well. So both of those initiatives that we have previously discussed are in play and that's helping us. The first one of our multi-sourcing product, we'd recently commercialized and we have a couple more coming up. So, that's really -- you're seeing some of the benefits of those initiatives in our September quarter guide and we'll see even more benefit in the December quarter guide.
Cristiano Amon:
Chris, this is Cristiano. And only thing I would like to add is, in spite of having great results, both revenue and EPS, all exceeding the right end of our guidance. We still have demand outpacing supply. We're -- we have more demand and supply across all of our business. And as you look up our guide in the next quarter, it's consistent with the statement we made that we see material improvement in supply to Qualcomm by the end of the year. And that's great news. And -- but overall, we continue to see a strong demand in every single business outpacing supply.
Chris Caso:
That’s very helpful. Thank you. For my follow-up, I wanted to address one of the investor concerns to give you the opportunity to address it. And that's the modem socket at Apple. And of course, Apple has expressed that they're also working on their own modems. So that's a concern to investors. I know that getting Apple, it's limited -- you're limited in what you can say on that, but I guess I wanted to hear what you could say on it. And perhaps if you could talk about perhaps the magnitude of that risk, if Apple were to take that path, what would it mean for Qualcomm?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for your follow-up question. Two answers for you and not any different than what you would expect from Qualcomm. I think, the very first one, yes, we're very happy with relationship with Apple. We're just on their first phone. We have other phones to go and we're very happy with it, the way things are progressing. At the end of the day, you should always think of Qualcomm. We have always been really focused on seller technology, the first with every new generation of wireless. And as long as modem continued to be relevant, there's always going to be a place for Qualcomm in this business. The second part of the answer, which I think is the most important and an opportunity to address investor concerns is the biggest opportunity for Qualcomm in mobile is the changes that are happening in the mobile landscape right now. As a matter of fact, this quarter, Xiaomi is now the number two OEM in award and shipments. And we see the shifts in OEM market share create an incredible opportunity for us. Snapdragon became synonymous with Android premium and high-tier. That is how are we going to go faster than the market and incredible opportunity for revenue and earnings, looking at the whole value of the Snapdragon platform. We're super focused on executing on this opportunity, and it's going to be one of the key drivers of growth in Qualcomm handset strategy going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi. Good afternoon. Congrats on the results. Hi, Cristiano. Hi, Akash. Just -- maybe I wanted to start off here on the RF -- results on the RF side and really great progress there. Does sound like you're on track, and targeting to become one of the largest RF suppliers. Just if you can give us more of an update. I know you do it more annually, but update on where you stand in terms of share relative to some of the incumbents there? And what's driving the conference here, particularly as you go into heavy period of design wins and launches, what's driving the confidence about getting to that pole position in that market. And then I have a follow-up as well.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hey, Samik. It’s Akash. Thanks for your question. Overall, on the RF front-end side, the starting point for us obviously always is, having the right product portfolio. And so, over the last three years, we've been investing in the breadth of the portfolio and we are in a very good place. I think, as you look forward, not only are we the leaders in the modem to RF end-to-end system solutions, but also each individual component within RF front-end. We feel like we're in a very competitive and strong product position. The second is just the design win pipeline that we have in front of us. We have great relationships with the OEMs in the mobile industry. And so that relationship then extends into providing an end-to-end solution for them. And so, as we look forward and based on our conversations to commitments we have from the OEMs on the designs, we feel very confident that we have an upward trajectory going forward. And then finally, in terms of scale, really when we look at the scale within handsets, we already feel like we're maybe the largest player in the industry in RF front-end. And the opportunity for us is as 5G expands outside, how do we take our position in the handsets while we continue to grow within handsets, but also take it outside and grow in other areas.
Samik Chatterjee:
For my follow-up, Akash, you talked about the growth in handsets, just kind of thinking a bit more longer-term and into next year, how should we think about what's the primary driver here is? Is it still content increase as you get more on 5G phones, or is it really the $10 billion Huawei TAM that you've talked about? And in that context, can you talk about MediaTek products and the competitive landscape there and how that's evolving?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. So maybe I'll address the first part and then Cristiano can address the MediaTek competitive landscape. Overall, I think the answer to your question is all of the above, right? We clearly have a long ways to go within 5G. We're at the front-end of it. And we're going to see the rest of the tiers transition over as well. And as that happens, we still think the metric that we gave previously of a 1.5 X multiplier on our revenue and margin opportunities still holds. In addition to that, as you're seeing the changing OEM landscape is benefiting us with our customers winning share. And as that happens, when you combine that with our product portfolio within 5G and design commitments from our customers, especially in the premium and high-tiers, that positions us to grow significantly as we move into fiscal 2022. Maybe a quick data point to give on Honor, they are in the process of launching three phones with us. One is a premium-tier Snapdragon 888 phone, and then two in the high-tier. And so, it's just an example of how we are expanding our customer base.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Samik. So, really simple answer, not to talk about MediaTek, but we think that there's plenty of opportunities for growth for us in other companies in the changing landscape. What is really important for Qualcomm, and I'll give a couple of metrics. One outlined by Akash, not only we have a strong roadmap, but we have customer commitments to premium and high-tier designs for Qualcomm. The total design wins for Snapdragon 800 increased 20% quarter-over-quarter, and all for total 5G design wins, half for the design is Snapdragon 8 Series. So that -- it's the clear indication about Qualcomm opportunity into premium and high, where we can capture the majority of the value of the market. And we look at the growth of handset segment -- I know we talk a lot about a growth upside handset, but handsets up 6 billion year-over-year. Q3, 2021 handset revenue up 57%. So that's a clear indication that we're in the good position. We see that as one of the largest growth opportunities we have for the handset business, and we'll continue to be executing into this new TAM with a premium and high-tier devices.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask you a question. I guess this is my first one. I wanted to ask a question on gross margins to Akash. It's impressive that you guys grew your gross margin 70 basis points sequentially, despite the QCT side of the equation dropping in your mix. So, I just wanted to get into a little bit about what's driving that upside in gross margin in the quarter. And more importantly, structurally going forward, given the new markets you're entering into the position you guys have in the market, is there anything structurally that would keep you from getting a gross margin more aligned to kind of even the mid-fifties range where a lot of your fabless [ph] peers currently reside.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hey, Ross. Thanks for your question. Yeah. As I said earlier, I think pretty happy with how we did on the gross margins. It's really a combination of a couple of things. One is just having a stronger mix of products. And so, as we see more adoption of our solutions at premium and high-tier, that helps our percent gross margin profile in addition to the dollar margins. The second is really mix of businesses and it leads into your second point is as we grow into these other areas, automotive and IoT, our margin profile at the gross margin level help is -- that growth helps the gross margin profile. And so, that's a key factor for us going forward, as you rightly noted.
Ross Seymore:
Great. Thanks for that color. And yeah, I should have clarified that the mid-fifties gross margin would be for the QCT side, not overall. But I guess as my follow-up question separately, whether it's Cristiano or Akash, how should we think just pluses and minuses for the calendar fourth quarter, you have a lot of different dynamics, the timing of premium launches, new launches from the Huawei, Honor, China ecosystem supply coming on board. So just a lot of different puts and takes that could make historical seasonality really be thrown out the window. So, any sort of just even directional color there on those puts and takes would be helpful.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So, as you know, well, it's a seasonally strong quarter for the company overall. And let me just maybe quickly hit the two businesses. Within QTL, we've said in the past that we expect the holiday quarter to be around $1.7 billion range. So, at this point we're not seeing anything different at this point to give separate data points. On the QCT side, we expect the seasonality to be a favorable thing for all of our businesses. So not just handsets, but RF front-end, IoT and auto. And so, we'll see a typical seasonal benefit. Within handsets, obviously we're getting the benefit from the launch of new handsets that happened during that time, especially in the premium and high-tier, and then, some supply improvements coming into the picture as well. The one thing to keep in mind as a reminder last year, we had a higher than normal sequential increase from September to December quarter. And that was obviously because of two reasons that we would not have this time. First is Apple coming back as a customer to Qualcomm. And so that exaggerated the seasonality. And then also, there was a delay in their phone launch. So, those are two key factors. If you compare to last year, that'd be -- would not be factors that would imply this year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and appreciate the detail on the IoT business that you released. Obviously, a very broad business. So I'm wondering if any way you can dial it in and maybe by the three sub-segments to where you've seen the strength, obviously the business nearly doubled since you started breaking it out. I know there's a lot of segments in there. I know it's pretty diverse. So, I was just curious, how you would answer the question as to -- within these segments, where are you seeing the most strength?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Blayne, it's Akash. Let me take a crack at that. If you look at what happened in our IoT business this year, we were somewhere in the $1.1 billion range -- revenue range for March. We grew to $1.4 billion. And as I mentioned earlier, we feel like we're in a strong position to continue to grow that revenue stream. So, pretty interesting trends for us. When you break down the business and we broke it down in the slide you're referring to in three buckets. We had edge networking, consumer and industrial. Neither of those are dominant category. So, you should think of all three as contributing very materially to the total amount of revenue. Maybe I'll highlight a couple of things. Within edge networking, both the Wi-Fi access point business and the 5G fixed wireless business, they’re both very strong for us. And especially when you think about the 5G fixed wireless business, we're really at the very front-end of that having very material impact for us. So, we're looking forward to the growth that that offers to us over the next several years. In the consumer business, clearly there is a very broad set of products we have. The revenue is split between several products. But then also as you look forward, the opportunity within the next-generation PCs and AR/VR are very material things that could be growth -- material growth drivers going forward. And then within industrial, that’s a very broad field and we are really not even in the first innings on that market. So, long ways to go for us. And we're excited all these markets are looking for technologies from us.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yeah. Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I guess, my first question goes back to the TAM, that is you guys outlined $10 billion from what Huawei is exiting and your customers are going to go into. We've been all trying to track as Huawei has kind of depleted their own inventory and now yourselves and MediaTek are growing into that business again some supply constraints. So, of that $10 billion TAM, that’s out there for you, just ballpark about how much do you think you can realistically address in the September quarter? And how much of that TAM is still ahead of you guys as you go into fiscal 2022? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thanks Matt for that question. We will stay away from kind of breaking down that TAM. I don’t think we have that level of precision in kind of estimating our opportunity going forward. What gives us confidence that we will get a portion of it in the September quarter, but really this is a big tailwind for us going into fiscal 2022 is our conversations with the OEMs, commitments from them on designs, and really the supply improvements that we will get at the end of the year. And so, those are the three kind of factors that play into our confidence as we go into fiscal 2022.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thanks. And as my follow-up, I wanted to ask a question, Cristiano on your automotive business, it seems really well positioned and you guys have talked about the pipeline growing with 5G connectivity being a fulcrum, and then the ability to do Wi-Fi, GPS, Bluetooth, in-dash display, et cetera, on the same integrated platform. I guess, what's the competitive landscape like that across those sockets for Qualcomm right now. And what kind of ASPs are you guys envisioning for that business, if as you would sell it as an integrated solution including RF? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks Matt for the question. Look, we really like our position in this space, especially because the trends of connecting the car to the cloud. It’s just the first step where you can do within the telematics or to connect the communications box in the car. You can add to that Wi-Fi, Bluetooth as you outlined, but also Cellular-V2X capabilities. So, a long roadmap. I think we have a very strong position given our understanding of the market, and the ability to provide a very modular solution. I think, we're highly differentiated in the space, and it's really showing based on our design wins. Also, you're starting to see digital cockpit becoming more material in the revenue, which is really a much richer silicon opportunity for us. As we look at dashboard, the infotainment, rear seat entertainment, heads up display, smart mirrors, smart side view mirrors and so forth. And there is a completely redesign of the in-car experience. I will argue today, Qualcomm is now winning the absolute majority of premium-tier car RFPs. We are engaged with 23 of the 26 brands, highly differentiated in the space also because we can take a system approach connecting all those different systems together. You should start thinking about our automotive business, as there are going to be a digital chassis than automotive company will have to build. And we are differentiated, because we have capabilities across multiple domains and it's starting to reflect in the magnitude of our contracted pipeline.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you. I wonder how the end of kind of supply chain tightness and shortages affects your EBIT margin in QCT. And is there kind of an active process of thinking that through, can we trade off some of that 30% EBIT margin to retake some share, that maybe we lost? Or is it sort of -- just how are you approaching that? And is there an ambition to achieve a certain EBIT margin, or a certain market share and what's the trade-off between those two things?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Joe, it's Akash. Our framework on margins really is unchanged from the way we outlined it at Analyst Day last year. It's really a combination of two things. It's optimizing the gross margins and the way we do that is a combination of the mix between premium high-tiers where the gross margins are lot more attractive in handsets versus the lower-tiers. And then second is focusing on diversification outside, and so that adds scale to the margin profile. The next point I'd maybe highlight is a lot of the technology that funds the growth in IoT and auto is coming from mobile. So, mobile technology is being reused in these areas in very large scale and that allows us to really get the operating leverage benefit that we were planning for. And then, of course, we are balancing that with R&D investments and making sure we're investing in the right things that position us to continue to win in these exciting areas in the long term. So, it's a combination of those factors.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the question. I wanted to dig into millimeter wave a little bit. Last quarter you said, it was about 20% of RFFE revenues. I wonder if you could tell us what it was this quarter. And then, if you might be able to indicate whether you expect that to continue. I mean, assuming it’s risen, do you expect to continue to rise where did that end the year, the calendar year for you? That’s my first question, and then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Hi, Rod. It's Akash. I'll give you the metric on it and then I'll defer to Cristiano to add color on top of it. From a percent of total RFFE revenue, this quarter was not that different than last quarter in pretty similar range. When you think about it very long-term going into next year and the following year, as millimeter wave gets deployed, we expect that to be a vector for growth within RF front-end, so it will become a larger percent of the total pie.
Cristiano Amon:
Rod, on the second part of your question, here is how millimeter wave is tracking. Everything aligned over expectations commercial networks, United States, Japan, Italy and Singapore. The upcoming one is South Korea, Germany. There are some countries in Western Europe, Southeast Asian, and Russia, as well. And during the MWC Barcelona, the recent trade show, 150 carriers around the world indicated they are investing in millimeter wave technology. So, we’re excited about that. And we continue to highlight what we think could be an incredible upside opportunity to the model, which is millimeter wave going to China. We are continued to be engaged in -- for the Winter Olympics in early 2022, and if there becomes a broader deployment in China, you should expect a lot of upsides to our model.
Rod Hall:
Great. Okay. And then, I wanted to dig into the China weakness a little bit more. I know that you guys called it out in your comments, there is the Huawei opportunity I got. But curious if you could just comment on the wider market there, the weakness that we are seeing in handsets. Do you think this is just consistent with the maturity of that market? Do you think there are macro factors that are coming into play here? Could you just give us a little bit more color on what you think is going on in China? And maybe what the outlook there is in the next six months or so? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Rod, it's Akash. I think, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we did see some weakness within the quarter relative to your expectations in China and in India. A lot of the weakness we saw was at the low-tier. So, the phenomena we saw is really kind of weaker low-tier, but then mix shift towards the high-end in these markets. And so, that’s a key trend that we are monitoring, which obviously on net/net, the mix shift is a very positive thing for us. The impact in India that we saw in the June quarter, obviously was related to the COVID situation there. And so, as that improves and has improved materially already, we would expect that some of those units come back into the September quarter and that's been factored into our guide.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Pradeep Ramani:
Hi. This is Pradeep Ramani for Tim Arcuri. I had a couple of questions. Maybe the first one, just given the recent Intel announcement where you're partnering with Intel or IFS, what sort of commitment is this on your part? Is that sort of a volume commitment at this point? I realize it's some ways out, but it would be fair to say that it's going to service the U.S. customer?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. Thanks for the question. Look, it's exactly very simple. Qualcomm, we are probably one of the few companies that given our scale is able to have multi-sourcing at the leading node. We have two strategic partners today, which is TSMC and Samsung. And we're very excited and happy about Intel deciding to become a foundry and investing in leading node technology to become a foundry. I think that’s great news for the United States, fabless [ph] industry. We are engaged. We are evaluating their technology. We don't yet have a specific product plan at this point, but we're pretty excited about Intel entering into this space. I think, we all determine that semiconductors are important, and resilient supply chain is only going to benefit our business.
Pradeep Ramani:
Okay. And for my follow-up, can you provide some more color on how the licensing -- the 5G related licensing agreement work for the non-smartphone adjacency? Is there sort of a price cap, or is it revenue based? Or can you provide some color on the arrangement?
Akash Palkhiwala:
So, what you see with QTL right now is in the top line numbers that you're seeing result of executing on long-term agreements with the major handset OEMs. On the non-handset side, we've had license agreements in place for a long time. Some of those agreements are on a percentage basis. Some of the agreements are on a dollars per unit basis. We don't break out those individual agreements or the collective non-handset revenue, but we're moving forward successfully with 5G in the automotive space and then the IoT space, as well. It’s just the overall revenue is a relatively smaller part of -- the overall non-handset revenue is relatively smaller part of our overall licensing revenue, so we don't break it out.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yeah. Thanks very much. Cristiano, you made a lot of references to the Snapdragon 888 in your prepared remarks. And I wanted to ask more broadly about the Android flagship opportunity you see ahead. And I guess, historically, Huawei and Samsung has kind of dominated this segment, and that’s limited your share to some extent in flagship. But can you just share with us just your perspective on how you think this market plays out for Qualcomm? And what sort of market share you think you can attain? And what sort of timeframe do you think it takes to fully supply this segment of the market? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Great question. Look, the market right now is a lot more favorable. And I want to take a minute to outline this. It used to be highly concentrated. If you look at the opportunity right now we have, we have a great relationship with Samsung, which is expanding. We have a relationship with Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, all in the premium-tier. We have a relationship with Honor. In record time, we launched Snapdragon 888 with Honor, the Magic3 device. So, if you look, it’s a much healthier market. You have at least five companies at scale that driving the premium-tier, and that creates an incredible opportunity for us. And as you know, the Snapdragon premium-tier devices, there are lot more revenues and earnings compared, for example, to just a modem technology alone. And the last comment I want to make into this, we're just at the beginning of this opportunity. We're showing with 5G a much better mix across the devices. The market is moving towards premium and high. We're very well-positioned in this space. And over time, we find investments we have been doing in CPU with NUVIA. We expect to take the differentiation to a whole another level. Thank you.
Brett Simpson:
Thanks Cristiano. Maybe just a quick follow-up on automotive, because obviously with the backlog growing to $10 billion, what sort of silicon content do you think Qualcomm can address in autos? I mean, you talked about digital cockpit, and there are obviously 5G, and there is RF. When you add it all up, what sort of total silicon can Qualcomm address say by the middle of the decade in integral cars?
Cristiano Amon:
There is a lot of silicon opportunities for Qualcomm, and not to make an ASP disclosure. We will provide a lot more color in our Analyst Day, especially how all of the different elements of the digital chassis is evolving. But you see in the automotive business an opportunity for a lot more silicon content and much higher ASPs that we see in other business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is coming from the line of Srini Pajjuri with SMBC. Please proceed with your question.
Srini Pajjuri:
Thank you. I have a clarification and a question. First, on the RF business in the quarter that you reported, Akash. Historically, I've seen kind of handset and RF move hand-in-hand. But this quarter I think RF grew about 5% or 6%, and the handsets declined about 4% or 5%. Just trying to understand what explains that discrepancy?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Hi, Srini. There are couple of reasons. One is, you will see some differences in purchase timing for various things within our portfolio. So, sometimes RF components are purchased earlier that are not explicitly tied to a specific handset, so sometimes you see a timing difference that impacts these things. And then second is design wins, right? While RF is largely thought of as an attach business for our Qualcomm baseband, we do have business outside of Qualcomm baseband. So, we do attach to other devices and so that also becomes a different factor.
Srini Pajjuri:
Got it. And then on the QTL side, I think you said for the Q4, the run rate should be about $1.7 billion in the peak quarter. Just trying to understand, how we should think about growth in this business, Akash, because obviously you're guiding for handset units to grow high single digits and obviously 5G is potentially doubling or even more than that. And some of the adjacencies are adapting 5G. So, as we look into next year or two, can you talk about some of the potential growth drivers? I mean, whether it's in low end or mid end smartphones adapting 5G, or some of their adjacencies. I'm just curious as to why we are not seeing a bit more pronounced growth here. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Srini, I'll reiterate what we said at the Analyst Day a couple of years ago. When you look at our licensing business, we kind of have a base case for the business and we think of it other things as upside opportunities. The way to model our business is really, you have our June quarter numbers and then we are forecasting September and then we gave a data point for December. So, those are reasonable data points to project forward to get to an annual number for the licensing business. There are few things that could drive upside on top of that, but again we think of it as upside opportunities. The growth outside handsets is a factor. Second is, as I mentioned earlier in the call, we're seeing a mix shift, that's very positive for us. And so, as mix shift continues, we will see the benefit in QCT, but we'll also see the benefit in QTL. And so that would be another upside driver and especially with 5G penetrating the lower tiers, there will be a factor for QTL as well. And again, it would show up through better ASPs and as a result better revenues. So, hopefully that helps in framing the forward path for it.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks everyone for joining us on the call today. Once again, I would like to say thank you to our employees who are staying focused and delivering results. I look forward to leading Qualcomm, leading in 5G and building on the success of our diversification strategy.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 28, 2021. The playback number for today’s call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13718356. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice-President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Cristiano Amon, and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and the slide presentation that accompanies this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent 10-K, which contains important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm’s Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. When we reported Q2 just one year ago, we were in the early stages of the pandemic. Much has happened since then, including many things that will define our future well beyond this past year. One of the undeniable things we have experienced and at an accelerated pace is the importance and reliance global citizens have on robust connectivity and the need for low power, high-performance devices. This has reinforced and amplified our mission. Sitting here in San Diego today, we are optimistic about what we see on the horizon. Yet while the pandemic impacted nearly everyone at the same time last year, the experience today is very different depending on where you are in the world. In particular, I want to acknowledge our employees, customers, and partners in India. You and your families are in our thoughts and we are here to support you through this very challenging time. Of the many things that have impressed me during my 26-year career at Qualcomm, at the top of the list is how our company mobilized in the past year leading to strong results like we reported today. Our fiscal second quarter non-GAAP earnings of $1.90 per share exceeded the high end of our guidance, driven by higher licensing revenues and solid performance in our chipset business, representing non-GAAP revenue and EPS year-over-year growth of 52% and 116%, respectively. Despite the backdrop of a challenging environment, these results and our guidance reflect the strength of the company and the importance of our technologies, not only to the mobile industry, but across many industries. Several years ago, we put in place a strategy to lead in 5G, which today is delivering results beyond our expectations. Even this fiscal year, with all the unusual challenges, we are on track to deliver results better than what we expected when we started the fiscal year. As exciting as our current performance is, I cannot underestimate the long-term opportunity for Qualcomm and how well-positioned the company is, where we have a unique opportunity to exceed our success in handsets as industries adopt the wireless roadmap. This enviable position is what I find most rewarding when looking back over the past seven years. Undeniably over my tenure as CEO, I dealt with and overcame unprecedented challenges, which I always put in perspective. Our mission and singular focus of inventing breakthrough technologies, transforming how the world connects, computes and communicates is important and hard to do. Our challenges tightened our focus on this mission and at the core innovation was always the solution. As a result, Qualcomm enters the 5G era with our whole company stronger and more resilient. Most importantly, we never lost focus on the impact and opportunity digitization will bring to our customers, partners, governments and consumers worldwide as a result of our collective efforts. Speaking as a soon-to-be former CEO, I believe there is virtually no limit on where Cristiano can lead Qualcomm, the industries he can enter and the role the company can play in the global ecosystem. I am very excited to watch this play out. To all our employees, I thank you for your tireless devotion and commitment to our strong culture and core values. I know it is very exciting for everyone at Qualcomm to witness how our inventions change the lives of billions of people around the world as we know they will. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Cristiano.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. The quarter-end guide reflect the great execution across the company in a very challenging environment and reinforces the significance of our technologies. Our Snapdragon premium and high-tier products, along with our modem-to-antenna RF front-end, are the foundation of our 5G handset strategy now and into the future. The expansion of our addressable market in this smartphone tiers has positioned the Snapdragon 800 tier as synonymous with Android flagship mobile experiences. We continue to be the mobile technology platform of choice for these tiers, and this is reflected both in our product performance as well as our traction with leading smartphones OEMs such as Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and now Honor. Our latest generation Snapdragon 888 5G mobile platform has now more than 40 device shipped or announced globally and we expect to see more than double this number come to market in the coming months from future product announcements. Our highly differentiated position in premium and high tiers, our modem-to-antenna leadership and the continued transition of Huawei volume to OEMs using our solutions have positioned us to grow faster in smartphones, while being able to capture the most significant portion of the revenue opportunity. In RF front-end, we continue to see broad and growing adoption of our solutions. 5G leading performance at the component and system level, ease of design and global reach continue to be key differentiators of our modem-to-antenna solutions. As a reminder, virtually all of our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front-end solutions whether they support 4G, 5G sub-6 or 5G millimeter wave. Beyond smartphones, we’re extending our RF front-end solutions in automotive, PCs, mobile hotspots, fixed wireless access in the broad IoT category. Of note, given our design win pipeline and revenue run rate, we are on track to exceed our Analyst Day RF front-end revenue target of $3.6 billion by fiscal year 2022 with 5G sub-6 and 4G representing the majority of our RF front-end revenues. Additionally, as 5G millimeter wave technology expands into other geographies, we expect significant expansion of our opportunity due to increased silicon content and value. At Mobile World Congress Shanghai in China and in collaboration with China Unicom, ZTE and the GSMA, we worked with 39 Chinese industry-leading companies to showcase the high-performance and rich applications on a live 5G millimeter wave network. This level of collaboration underscores the significant attention to millimeter wave in China and the opportunity ahead beginning in 2022. In automotive, we’re growing across telematics, C-V2X, digital cockpit, ADAS and autonomy, and we’re also well positioned for upcoming general computing in Car-to-Cloud platforms. We expect to lead in the segments as cloud connected business models evolve and electrification of the car accelerates. As the digital chassis become one of the most important assets of automakers, we are becoming a leading technology partner for the automotive industry with capabilities across all this domains. Our automotive design win pipeline is up over $1 billion since the end of fiscal 2020 to approximately $9 billion today. Along with auto, IoT is becoming a significant growth engine with better-than-anticipated performance across all categories, namely consumer, networking and industrial. We achieved our second consecutive quarter of over $1 billion in revenue. Trends such as the enterprise transformation of the home, expansion of broadband, the conversions of personal computing with mobile, the intersection of physical and virtual spaces, and the ongoing digital transformation across many verticals are driving growth in one of the largest SAM expansions opportunities for us. In consumer, as the industry redefines personal computing, we’re confident about our growth in Android, Chrome OS in Windows and Snapdragon where we expect new products with leading NUVIA’s CPUs by the end of the next calendar year. We’re also seeing our early investments in XR platforms reaching scale. And in the growing category of wearables, we believe Snapdragon Sound and Snapdragon Wear will become the leading technology solutions within the Android ecosystem. In networking, we are a leader in Wi-Fi access points in 5G broadband. We’re benefiting from the global connectivity required for remote work, school and play, and the migration to Wi-Fi 6 and mesh technologies. Our 5G fixed wireless access solutions are seeing broad adoption globally. Going forward, we also have an opportunity to expand into upcoming private 5G networks and public open RAN. In industrial, we have seen continued adoption of our technologies across the broad industry segments. Key growth areas to name a few, includes smart energy, tracking, metering, industrial handhelds, retail, automation and autonomous drones. As connected IoT edge devices get scale and provide access to the data and contextual information that is fuelling the exponential growth projections of cloud ecosystems, we’re increasingly confident in the long-term growth opportunity for our IoT business. Turning to our licensing business. Our second quarter results reflect the strength of our unmatched patent portfolio value. We are the global 5G IP leader with more than 130 5G license agreements signed to-date, up from over 120 last quarter with all major handset manufacturers around the globe licensed. We continue to develop and patent new essential innovations for future releases of 5G, which we expect to have a longer lifecycle than prior generations due to its impact on multiple industries. We believe that our model of early research and development, consistent with standard leadership, flexible licensing, and global implementation support will continue to add value to our partners and stockholders for years to come. Overall, we continue to see unprecedented demand across all of our technologies and businesses as the current environment is accelerating the scale of connectivity and processing at the edge. Despite the industry-wide semiconductor supply shortage, we’re utilizing our scale and working across our entire global supply chain to maximize our ability to capture this opportunity. We expect material improvements by the end of the calendar year due to planned capacity builds and multi-sourcing initiatives. As one of the leading drivers of advanced semiconductor technology platforms, we’re also excited to see more foundry investment in the United States consistent with the United States government’s strategic priorities. Finally, we’re extremely proud of our collaboration with NASA’s jet propulsion laboratory on Ingenuity, the Mars helicopter powered by Snapdragon. Snapdragon made it to Mars and helped power the first-ever autonomous flight on another planet. This is yet another example of our ingenuity. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong second quarter results with non-GAAP revenues of $7.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.90, which was $0.15 above the high end of our guidance range. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 52% and 116% in revenue and EPS respectively, driven by strength across QTL and QCT. In QTL, we recorded revenues of $1.6 billion and EBT margins of 74%, both above the high end of our guidance range. The outperformance was primarily driven by stronger handset shipments, especially in China. In addition, our results include a benefit of approximately $80 million from adjustments to prior-quarter royalty estimates. In QCT, we delivered revenues of $6.3 billion and EBT of $1.6 billion. On a year-over-year basis, revenues were up 53%, while EBT grew 137%, delivering on our commitment to increase operating leverage. We achieved the high end of our guidance range with EBT margins of 25%. This reflects our strong operating performance driven by favorable product mix and gross margins, which more than offset a reduction in the orders within the quarter by a global handset OEM. RF front-end revenues increased 39% year-over-year to approximately $900 million on the strength of our product portfolio across 4G, 5G sub-6, and 5G millimeter wave. 5G millimeter wave products accounted for less than 20% of our second quarter RF front-end revenues. We expect millimeter wave deployments in other regions such as China to be a tailwind for long-term revenue growth. Automotive revenues of $240 million grew 40%, and IoT revenues of $1.1 billion grew 71% on a year-over-year basis as we continued to see strong momentum for our differentiated product portfolio. During the quarter, we completed the acquisition of NUVIA for a purchase price of $1.4 billion before working capital and other adjustments. This acquisition provides us with a strong CPU team with industry-leading expertise in high-performance processors and SoCs. Lastly, we returned approximately $2.3 billion to stockholders during the quarter, consisting of $734 million in dividends and $1.5 billion in stock repurchases. Turning to our global 3G/4G/5G handset forecast for calendar 2021. Based on the strength in the first quarter, we have an upward bias relative to our prior estimate of high single digit year-over-year growth. Our calendar 2021 forecast continues to include an estimate of 450 million to 550 million 5G handsets. Next, I’ll summarize our guidance for third fiscal quarter. We now expect a stronger outlook in both QTL and QCT relative to our prior expectations, which we shared last quarter due to several positive tailwinds. We are forecasting revenues of $7.1 billion to $7.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 to $1.75 with year-over-year growth of 53% and 92%, respectively, at the midpoints. In QTL, we expect revenues of $1.35 billion to $1.55 billion, up 39% year-over-year at the midpoint, with EBT margins of 68% to 72%. Our revenue guidance midpoint is $100 million higher than our previous estimate, reflecting the positive bias in total handset shipments. In QCT, we estimate revenues of $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion and EBT margins of 24% to 26%. At the midpoints, this represents year-over-year revenue growth of 59% and EBT dollar growth of 151%. Our stronger forecast for QCT reflects upside in IoT, design traction in handsets and RF front-end, and improved product mix. We are pleased with the success of our diversification strategy as we continue to extend the adoption of smartphone technologies in automotive and IoT. In the third quarter, we expect IoT revenues to increase to $1.3 billion. We anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to grow 3% to 4% sequentially, which includes a full quarter impact of expenses from the NUVIA acquisition and investments to enable additional sourcing for supply. Beyond third quarter, we expect growth to be driven by 5G flagship launches for the holiday season by major OEMs and strong demand across IoT and automotive. In addition, with the continued transition of Huawei handset volume to other OEMs, we estimate QCT’s annual addressable handset and RF front-end revenue opportunity to increase by up to $10 billion. Given our strong product portfolio, we are positioned to benefit from this opportunity starting in fiscal 2022. Before I finish my prepared remarks, on behalf of all Qualcomm employees, I want to thank Steve for his contributions over the past 26 years and wish him the best for a well-deserved retirement as CEO. During his successful tenure as CEO, he navigated significant challenges to put the company in a strong financial and strategic position. I look forward to working with Cristiano and the rest of the Qualcomm team to build on his vision and capitalize on the opportunities in front of us. Thank you. And I’ll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thank you. Congratulations on the strong results and, Steve, my best wishes for whatever is next, including some hopeful fruitful fishing trips for you. My question for the group is with June seasonally softer quarter for QCT but the guidance quite strong, could you just update us if there is any supply constraints that are still adversely impacting the guidance for the June quarter? And then just a follow-on, with the Huawei SAM opportunity you highlighted at the end, Akash, maybe you guys could just touch on your view for the second-half of calendar 2021 in terms of potential share gains for you into the Android installed base? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Mike. It’s Akash. I’ll take the first one. From a third quarter perspective, we are really seeing a lot of benefits on the QCT side, both in terms of kind of improved product mix, which is helping our performance. What we’re seeing there is really since we saw supply constraints and which we continue to see across a broad set of businesses, we were able to take action to optimize our product mix, both across tiers and then also when we had reductions in orders by a large OEM – handset OEM, we were able to redirect that capacity to integrated Snapdragon products with strong margin profile. So it’s really a combination of those things. So while we remain in supply constraint, we’ve been taking actions to manage to optimize the mix within the constraints we have. Your second question was...
Mike Walkley:
Just on the…
Cristiano Amon:
Yes, I can take that. This is Cristiano. Look, it’s – we’re extremely happy at the opportunity in terms of SAM expansion. If you look at a market such as mobile which is mature, you don’t see that very often an expansion of SAM of about $10 billion. And Qualcomm is very well positioned for that. So as far as second-half 2021, we’re very happy with the traction we have in our premium and high tiers across our customer base with new customers as well as Honor, and that’s a great opportunity. It’s going to be one of the largest growth drivers for our mobile business alongside our RF front-end and the ability to have Snapdragon 800 equal premium Android.
Mike Walkley:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. And, Steve, congratulations. All the best. My first question is related to supply, and you talked about in your prepared remarks, supply coming at the end of the year and being able to attack that Huawei replacement market in fiscal 2022. Can you give us some sense of how much incremental supply comes in before then? Or do we have to wait until the December quarter in order to get that volume? And as a follow-on to that, how does that align with your customer product introductions? Again, a lot of product introductions typically happen towards the beginning of the year in the Android space.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Chris. This is Cristiano. Look, there’s a lot in there. Let me just start with the supply. The overall supply constraint in semiconductors for us is really across all product lines. It’s not unique to one thing or the other. It’s not only smartphone. Frankly, it’s a good position to be in that we actually have more demand than supply across all of our business. And that’s a good sign, gives us confidence about the growth position. We are utilizing our scale and with that we have the ability to be supporting our suppliers’ capacity planning. We can provide stability of demand and in turn get stability of capacity. We are one of the few companies that have the ability to do multi-sourcing at the leading node, and we have done a lot of that with our roadmap. All of that combined, it give us material improvement in supply by the end of 2021, positioned us very well for 2022, and the full extent I think, as Akash outlined, the $10 billion SAM expansion on Huawei. Now, I want to go back to your question about how we think about our customers and customer product introductions. As I said before, we’re very happy with the progress we’re making in premium and high tier. That’s a great opportunity for Qualcomm and is reflecting in the product mix. As we still have right now even as we show growth, we still have more demand than supply, give us an opportunity also to have the ability to focus on the products that give us more value to us and to our customers, both on the premium side with RF front-end attach and that’s really showing in the numbers with a much-improved product mix.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then, Chris, it’s Akash. Just to add quickly to Cristiano’s comments, as you know, towards the end of the year, a lot of the flagship phones get launched both for the holiday season going into Chinese New Year. And so we do feel that with supply constraints opening up a bit, that allows us to take advantage of those launches and really expand into the Huawei SAM.
Chris Caso:
That’s great. That’s good color. Thank you. Next question is on QTL, and based on your guidance, it would seem that the revenue that you’re suggesting for the third quarter is back on what you previously expressed as the normalized QTL revenue. Is that what we should expect now going forward that – is that a reflection of the handset market is now normalized and therefore, the QTL revenue is normalized against the plan that you’ve talked about in the past?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, that’s definitely a reasonable conclusion. We did see upside – significant upside in the March quarter and which is reflected in our results. But as we go from March to June, what we are forecasting is really a normalized market within the handset market consistent with the historical framework we’ve set up, and that’s a reasonable way to model the business going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could give us more color on the reduction in orders you talked about from one vendor. How does that play out when you’re in kind of an allocated environment? And then in terms of the supply constraints, maybe if you could just talk about if I’m placing a new order now that’s not in backlog, like how long am I waiting? How tight is the situation? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Joe, it’s Akash. Really, as you’d expect, given the kind of broad breadth of demand we have across not just mobile but all of our adjacent markets, including IoT and auto, we take benefit of any reductions on orders from an OEM to really redirect the supply towards the highest margin product that we have in working with our customers. So that’s really the action we took. It’s obviously a good thing for us to be able to optimize the available supply across our customer base, and that’s what’s reflected as one of the benefits in our June quarter guidance.
Cristiano Amon:
Maybe if I can address, Joe, your second question. As far as supply constraints, look, not much more than it’s going to get better at the end of the year. So we – some of the orders that we still cannot fulfill even though we’re seeing growth and is reflected in the results and the guide, we expect to see towards the end of the year and into 2022 a much more favorable supply environment.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the – first about the sequential guide across the businesses. You’re guiding QTL down 10%. It looks like chip revenue is guided down about 4%. I know you talked about normalization of the market, but is that just a timing thing given the nature of the constraints in what you’re making? Is it indicative of mix of like the interplay between handset versus non-handset? What can you tell us about the drivers behind the differences of those two segment guidance?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. Stacy, it’s Akash. So let me start with QTL. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the two key drivers for QTL in the March quarter were significantly higher than expected units primarily driven by China for the total handset markets. That was the main driver. And then we also did see a benefit of approximately $80 million due to adjustments to prior quarter royalty estimates that benefited our second quarter performance. So as we go from Q2 to Q3 on the QTL side, we obviously don’t have that royalty estimates adjustment benefit in Q3. And then the second factor is really what we’re assuming is a more normalized handset market going into Q3. We saw some weakness in the December quarter, strength in the March quarter, but when you kind of abstract back from the quarter-to-quarter variances, we think it’s prudent to forecast going forward on a normalized market. So that’s really what’s driving QTL. From a QCT perspective, you’re right, we’re assuming a 4% quarter-over-quarter decline. If you – as you’d recall, our new premium tier product launches in the March quarter, so when we go typically from March to June, there’s a little bit of seasonality. Part of that is offset by really the supply framework, and so that kind of calibrates a little bit on what happens between the quarters anyways. So that’s really kind of the key drivers there. The one thing, I’ll highlight is and I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, for IoT, we have very strong demand going into the June quarter. We have a forecast of $1.3 billion increasing from $1.1 billion in March. So very happy to see the diversification across the businesses.
Stacy Rasgon:
That’s helpful. Thank you. If I could ask a brief follow-up, I mean you called out Honor specifically several times as both a customer and a potential growth driver. Can you talk a little bit more about them? Do you have any thoughts on where – I guess your share is low today, but any thoughts on where that can go, what your average ASP or tier that you’re attacking with Honor is going to be, and does the Huawei license that you signed last year, does that license directly transfer over to Honor, or did you have to sign a new license with them, and if that’s the case, have you signed one with them?
Alex Rogers:
Stacy, this is Alex. Let me just answer that question really quickly. We have separate agreements now with Huawei and with Honor, so all that is covered under separate licenses.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Stacy, this is Cristiano. We had traction with Honor across their product portfolio, but as you would expect a lot of our focus and that’s where we actually have a very unique position to market is really high-end premium tier. And that has also been kind – as I said earlier, it’s really reflected how our product mix is changing as we see a lot more demand for premium and high.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then, Stacy, I’d just add, it’s Akash. I’d just add that we do expect Honor to be a significant customer going forward with our traction with them.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on millimeter wave, you talked about I think China in fiscal 2022. I was just curious if you saw any additional geographies rolling out millimeter wave this fiscal year or this calendar year really?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Blayne. This is Cristiano. Millimeter wave is commercial today in United States and Japan. We also see a lot of investment in Korea as the next market. There are a few things you see as the initial signs in Europe. Its auctions have completed in some states. We’re excited about China just given the scale of the China market. Right now, we have a lot of activity leading into the Winter Olympics as China Unicom and companies like ZTE are working to have a lot of millimeter wave activity and coverage and services around the Winter Olympics and we think that’s the beginning of starting to get more traction in China. The reason we talk about China is because the scale of China will significantly change the dynamics of millimeter wave, getting it faster to more markets due to the economies of scale of China.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks. And then if I can just ask you, you highlighted NUVIA. You’ve been in the ARM PC market with Snapdragon before. Just curious, there’s a lot more focus on both client as well as data center for ARM processors. Maybe just elaborate your plans in the next couple years and where you see the best opportunities to lever that NUVIA asset?
Cristiano Amon:
The NUVIA asset give us a lot of flexibility. You should think about it as having a scalable leading CPU asset to together with the other Qualcomm assets. Our focus right now as outlined in what we’ve been saying and what we said in the earnings call is we have an incredible opportunity now with compute and of course premium tier, phones and automotive and some of the segments we are right now. We are very happy how computing has been redefined. Number one, use case in a PC right now is a communicator device, and I’m sure you relate to this. In some of the transition across the board to ARM architecture really create a big expansion opportunity for Qualcomm, and we’re very focused to make that happen with the leading position leveraging the NUVIA CPU. Having said that, I think this asset gives us a lot of flexibility to continue to be expanding to all the different business vectors we’re building in the company.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question and, Steve, congratulations on your retirement. I guess, Akash, one for you, in the last couple quarters, you’ve given us a heads-up one quarter beyond guide just when there was something unique happening in the market. I guess in this instance, given the fact that you’re talking about share gains in the Huawei ecosystem, the seasonality has had different implications over the last couple years with some of your bigger customers. Is there any sort of color that you’re able to give in the back half of this calendar year, puts and takes versus what you would deem to be normal? Any sort of guidance along those metrics?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, sure, Ross. So while we’re not guiding fourth quarter at this point, let me highlight a couple things that maybe is a framework to think about the rest of the year. First is, just when you think about the demand profile, handsets, RFFE, IoT, automotive really extremely strong. We’re gaining share pretty much in all markets and very, very strong position in each of them. So you should think of each of those as a growth vector for us and extending into kind of Q4 and then going into next year. Second is flagship phone launches. As I mentioned earlier in the call, they usually start in the August/September timeframe going through December. And so as those launches happen, that’s a favorable trend for us. Not just for handsets but for RF front-end as well with or without millimeter wave. And then the third is really supply improvement. As Cristiano mentioned, we’ve been working very hard on kind of partnership with our suppliers to improve the supply profile going forward, and as you said towards the end of the year, we expect a material improvement in supply. So that will be another vector that will drive us forward. And so those maybe are three things that can be used to frame the QCT profile. And then from a QTL perspective, it’s really consistent with our model the way we’ve portrayed it as seasonality in the handset market changes. That changes the revenue opportunity for QTL as well.
Ross Seymore:
Got it. Thanks for those details. I guess as my quick follow-up, Akash, another one for you. On the gross margin side of things, we know the perturbations that happen with mix between QCT and QTL, but the QCT side has been very, very strong. I just wanted to see what are you envisioning as the sustainable drivers of that? Are the gross margins today at all over-elevated or inflated due to your ability to prioritize in a limited supply environment, or are there attributions or aspects of the mix between handsets, RF, auto, IoT, et cetera, that gives you the belief that the gross margin improvement that you’ve delivered in QCT thus far is truly sustainable and can continue?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Ross, we feel like we have tailwinds on the gross margin side really across each – across the mix of products, across the markets we have, but also within each market. And it’s really Cristiano’s point earlier in the call, where we’re focusing on the industry-leading performance across premium and high-tier products that allows us to really have that price premium that results in expansion of margins. Also, as we kind of take the products that we have for mobile and the technologies we have for mobile and we leverage it in auto and IoT, that’s a tremendously scalable way for us to expand in those markets. And as we do that, we’re also able to expand not just gross margins but also operating margins.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. Good afternoon, guys. Akash, my first question is on QCT EBIT or operating margins. I mean, I think I went back and looked, and we’re pre-2010, I mean, pre-4G since you had a non-holiday quarter that was 25% margin. So well done there. Maybe you could talk a little bit about the sustainability of margin expansion in QCT, and given the June quarter’s likely the revenue trough quarter for the year, is that 25% margin, how we should think about the floor in margins going forward? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Matt. Thanks for the question. We’re really happy with how the margin profile has played out. I mean, it’s a plan that we set in place and outlined at Analyst Day about 18 months ago, and we’re pretty happy to be able to execute to it. Your observation is right. I mean, typically the June quarter is a trough from a margin perspective, and really as you look forward from here, for us the most important thing is the revenue scale and hence the things we highlighted in my prepared remarks both from an IoT growth perspective just gives us scale that allows us to expand operating margins. And then finally, the Huawei SAM, as we start approaching that SAM and really leveraging the existing products and roadmap both across handsets and RF frontend and growing into that SAM, we already have the product portfolio to go there. So as we grow there as well, it will be accretive to operating margins. So, pretty happy with where we’re at and looking forward to improving it going forward.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thanks for that. As my follow-up for Cristiano, you guys were kind enough to share a slide tonight that highlighted the diversity of the RF footprint across I think, I don’t know, a dozen or so premium Android devices both from global OEMs and in China. The question that I still get from investors is your confidence and ability to sustain or maybe expand that footprint as we go into next generation devices maybe as some of the RF competitors have a bit more mature 5G stances in their portfolio. So do you have any visibility as to how the – with those OEMs, the footprint might continue as you go forward and be sustainable in the RF franchise? That would be really helpful. Thanks, guys.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, Matt, thank you for your question. It’s a great question. And I want to start by maybe providing some data points and emphasize some of the data we provide in the earnings script. We heard a lot in the past that our RF frontend business, a lot of people thought that most of it was because of our leadership position in millimeter wave which we do have a leadership position in millimeter wave. But the reality is millimeter wave represent less than 20% of the revenues that were shown in RF frontend. The absolute majority of it is sub-6 and 4G actually, which actually shows that we’re winning not only at the system level, we’re winning at the component level. Otherwise, we would not come in as a fifth supplier and be winning 4G sockets. And it kind of really highlighting what we said at the end of the day, you’re going to have every single spectrum, whether it’s existing spectrum through DSS that goes to 5G, plus the new mid bands and the millimeter wave bands. We feel pretty good about our roadmap of RF front-end. The fact we’re winning designs across the board, it’s a testimony that our strategy is working. And to your specific question about is this going to go away, we’re now probably – if you look at the beginning when we launched 5G in 2019, in early 2019, we’re now multiple product generations and we continue to win RF frontend. So we’re very confident about this business. It is a great growth story for Qualcomm, and the beauty of this we’re actually winning on technology.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Cardoso:
Hi. This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik. My first question is on competitors. One of them commented pretty bullishly about targeting flagship millimeter wave, SoC opportunities next year. So I’m just curious [Audio Gap] competitive landscape and market share dynamics going forward and whether you expect the return of more aggressive pricing in the industry?
Cristiano Amon:
Look, there’s a lot of good things in this data point. I think this data point when our competitors are targeting millimeter wave in China, it just validates that China is going to have millimeter wave. And that’s how we read it. That’s a great data point consistent with what we’ve been saying. It’s going to add a lot of scale to millimeter wave. Look, Qualcomm has been very focused in our strong position in premium and high tier. There’s an incredible opportunity with the expansion of SAM. Everyone is benefiting. I think it’s an opportunity for everyone to be successful and generate growth. And we really becomes – we become equal to premium Android flagship opportunity and that’s going to continue to be a key part of our mobile strategy going forward.
Joe Cardoso:
Got it. Appreciate the color. And then my second one is on the automotive revenue opportunity. I appreciate the color on the RF revenue target, but was just curious relative to the automotive revenue target provided during the Analyst Day. With the pipeline now at $9 billion, is the revenue target now completely accounted for, or are we even north of that? Or is there more room to make on the pipeline there? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, so just on the automotive side, really since the Analyst Day, we feel like our position has really strengthened and then this is not just kind of in telematics and infotainment or digital cockpit, we’re seeing an expansion of our product portfolio within the market. So while we’re not updating the guidance at this point, we feel very comfortable with our position and we see it as expanding versus where we were 18 months ago.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes. Thanks for the question. I wanted to come back to China. I know that last quarter things were weak and then we observed that Chinese demand on mobile phones improving this quarter. And that’s obviously been part of the QTL story here. I’m just curious, I know that you guys were thinking that China was moving into more of a mature market phase where we would see elongating replacement cycles and so on. I wonder if the result here changes your mind on that at all? And then I also wanted to come back and talk a little bit about RFFE and whether you think you have a chance to see content increasing particularly in high-end phones as we move into the backend of the year? Or do you think that on a per-phone basis your content looks roughly similar? So just wonder if you could comment a little bit on how content – I’m sorry, I meant millimeter wave not just RFFE but kind of how that progresses through the backend of the year. Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Rod. It’s Akash. So on the China data point, really the market in December was slightly smaller than we’d expected and the March quarter was slightly bigger than we’d expected. I think you made a note of it in your report as well. But really when you normalize for it, which is how we think about the forecast going forward, it’s reflected in the market guidance we gave. So we think of high single digits as still a reasonable metric for 2021, but we do have upward bias given what has played out and we’ll see how the rest of the year rolls out.
Cristiano Amon:
And on millimeter wave, Rod, you’re right. If millimeter wave become a component of the RF frontend, we highlighted that today is less than 20% of the RF front-end revenues. The silicon and content and value increases substantially. When you do millimeter wave, you’re talking about multiple modules into a device, and you have antenna arrays, and it is a key accelerator RF frontend once millimeter wave becomes deployed more broadly across the 5G footprint. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. I guess I wanted to ask about the auto’s pipeline. It’s now up to $9 billion. I assume that most of this is probably parked out into the middle of the decade, something like that. But can you sort of help us maybe size the average age of that pipeline and maybe how you think that that revenue rolls out? It’s a big number, but it’s a lot different if it’s over five years versus over, say, nine years. So can you help us on that? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Tim, it’s Akash. So one of the reasons why we gave a revenue target at Analyst Day was really to put a framework around the scale of – annual scale of the business. And so as you’ll recall, we said we’d be greater than $1.5 billion in 2024. And so that’s still a reasonable way of thinking about that business. And as I said earlier, we feel like our traction in the market is accelerated and so we’re well positioned to kind of execute at that scale and continue to grow really in the – even in the 5, 10-year timeframe. So it’s pretty attractive long-term growth and we like the fact that it’s predictable and it adds a slightly different mix than the rest of our business.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, I’ll try to give you a little bit more color when we think about the timelines. The development lifecycle within the automotive industry is well known, and the way we think about it is when a decision is made and a contract is awarded, usually you get the technology contract award for the upcoming models. And that’s what is exactly building on our pipeline. So everything you see on the pipeline is basically contract awards, and they start to show up in revenue when those models get to SOP and they launch. And it continue to increase as we’re basically expending throughout multiple brands as the car companies are trying to be really be focused on electrification and the digital chassis component of their assets.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. I guess just as a second question, so, Akash, have you sort of handicapped where you think the tax rate could go with these changes? I mean, obviously if it goes through at face value and the statutory rate goes to 28% and if the global intangible low tax income rate goes to 21%, what – if you just take that at face value, what does that do to your tax rate?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, so, I mean, honestly it’s kind of early to see how it plays out, right? We’re obviously talking to – looking at the various proposals that have been made. So you kind of have one extreme proposal that I think you outlined. There’s other proposals that are a lot more favorable. What we’re really doing at this point is really working with folks in D.C. and educating them on the most important thing for us is really to make sure U.S. remains competitive, and there is really a strong reason for U.S. companies to continue to invest in R&D especially companies like Qualcomm who have a very high bias towards domestic R&D investments. So that’s been our focus. There is missing details in the proposals that allows us – doesn’t really allow us to give you a right answer to this question just yet, but we’re hopeful we’ll get some more clarity soon.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess first question, can you give a sense of what the revenue headwind for QCT is as a result of supply constraints? I’d be curious if that’s concentrated primarily in handsets or are you also seeing it on the adjacency front?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, C.J., so we’ve not sized the revenue headwinds really within QCT. We have not shared that data point. But it is something that is impacting all of our vectors. So this is not just handsets but also stretching into RF front- end, IoT, and automotive. And it’s a very significant number, right? So we could – in a perfect supply situation, we would have been much better off versus the results we are offering. And as we look forward, we think of that as a tailwind as we resolve these supply issues and things are much better for us towards the end of the year, we’ll be able to grow into the opportunity in front of us.
C.J. Muse:
That’s helpful. As my follow-up, I guess two-part question on the adjacency side of your QCT business. Near term into June, do you think that IoT and auto can offset the seasonal decline in RF front-end such that that business could be flat excluding handsets? And then bigger picture for fiscal 2021, given what you’ve put together in the first-half of the year, it looks like the business combined is growing 50%, 60% year-on-year. Is that the right kind of framework we should be thinking about? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, so C.J., we gave a pretty direct number on the IoT forecast for fiscal third quarter. We said it would be in the $1.3 billion range. So that’s a pretty good indication of how that business just continues to grow. We just reported a quarter with $1.1 billion and then sequential growth from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion. Similar trends in auto as well. So this is really a business portfolio that has strong growth vectors across the board, and as we look forward, we continue to see a similar trend.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question is coming from Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes, thanks very much. I wanted to ask a little bit about QCT and the second-half seasonality that you see, second-half calendar year seasonality. And just factoring in the supply challenges particularly in the first-half of the year, maybe the weaker flagship Android market in the first-half of the year, and then you look into the second-half and you’re talking about getting much more supply particularly in the December quarter. Should we be looking at – can you just maybe share with us that sort of first-half to second-half dynamic that you see today and could it be similar to what we maybe saw in calendar 2020? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, so from a second-half perspective, clearly kind of as one of the key drivers I outlined earlier was flagship launches that happened starting in the September timeframe. And so we do expect to see seasonality as those launches happen. And it would be across the board across all OEMs, across Snapdragon 800 as well. So looking forward to those launches materializing and especially as Cristiano said as supply gets addressed to a large extent into that quarter, it will allow us to benefit from those launches.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Thanks. And maybe just a follow-up, Akash. Can you maybe just comment on smartphone ASPs? I know it’s not something that you specifically comment on as you used to, but would like to get your perspective particularly with COVID at the moment and 5G adoption sort of like rising at the moment. What sort of – how do you see smartphone ASPs and how do you see the outlook as you go through this year into next year? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, as we said, while we don’t disclose the specifics, I mean, if you look at some of our customers and them reporting their results, you’d see that at least at the premium high tier, there’s some upward bias on those smartphone ASPs. So that’s really the tier in which 5G is penetrating first and you’re seeing some of the benefits roll through our customers’ results.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Cristiano Amon:
As this was Steve’s last earnings call, I’d like to take this opportunity to thank him for his leadership and tenure. It has been a privilege to work alongside him for more than 15 years through the good times and the hard times as we have grown and diversified the company. I look forward to building on his legacy, and I’m humbled by the opportunity ahead. This is an amazing time to be part of Qualcomm.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded February 3rd, 2021. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13714808. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan. Please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopfl and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements include projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio and good afternoon everyone. Fiscal 2021 is off to a great start with record first quarter non-GAAP revenues of $8.2 billion, up 63% year-over-year and record non-GAAP earnings of $2.17 per share, more than doubling from the prior year. The simultaneous global adoption of 5G combined with the increasingly complex technical requirements and a pace of change that it's accelerating drives a significant multi-year industry transition that plays to our strength. QCT revenues of $6.5 billion were also a record, up 81% year-over-year and 32% sequentially. Notably, our strong performance and outlook would have been even stronger had we not been supply constrained. Within QCT, we saw strength across our portfolio. Our RF adjacency demonstrated continued growth with quarterly revenues more than doubling year-over-year and crossing the $1 billion threshold, a significant milestone. We are executing extremely well in our strategy to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a true modem-to-antenna 5G experience and capture a higher dollar share of content in smartphones. We are also well-positioned with design wins across the mobile handset ecosystem, a strong pipeline for further growth in smartphones and a roadmap to bring our RF expertise to adjacent industries. Our automotive revenues of $212 million were up 44% year-over-year and our design win pipeline has grown to $8.3 billion from just $3 billion three years ago, placing us on a trajectory to achieve our fiscal year 2024 revenue target of $1.5 billion. Our IoT adjacency also passed the $1 billion threshold in Q1 and grew 48% year-over-year, driven by the growth of our core technologies for the digitization of consumer, networking, and industrial applications. Our team continues to execute extremely well in spite of supply constraints and the continued impact of the pandemic. Our strategy is playing out largely as we expected, positioning us well to capture the rapid deployment of 5G in both the core handset industry, as well as creating new opportunities in adjacencies. In our licensing business, our broad portfolio of foundational system-level innovations and intellectual properties across 3G, 4G, and 5G, along with valuable implementation patents is unmatched and recognized in part by having signed more than 120 5G license agreements, up from 111 license agreements last quarter. Our continued success in licensing reflects our development of foundational technologies enabling 5G standards coupled with leadership in developing the standards themselves; leadership in developing the products necessary to implement 5G technology and leadership in enabling the industry to rapidly implement 5G seamlessly worldwide. This process continues through the successive releases of 5G currently under development as our foundational innovations, coupled with our ability to implement 5G in products and coordinated deployment in new verticals, continues to drive progress outside the handset industry. We continue to invest in complementary technologies that will enable the adoption of 5G use cases that will benefit consumers and businesses in a variety of industries, as well as agriculture and the advanced important social objectives of both urban and rural environments, including improvements in healthcare and education in a more widely connected future. We have also spent the past decade deep in AI research and development, resulting in the creation of the technology necessary to scale AI across industries and products from smartphones and automotive to the IoT and data centers. To make AI ubiquitous, we focused on making efficient hardware, algorithmic advancements, and software tools available to developers and OEMs. We believe AI will transform industries and our technologies will help accelerate the commercialization and scale of AI, making AI ubiquitous around the globe. Our commitment to our high-performance processor roadmap was reflected in our recently announced proposed acquisition of NUVIA. We look forward to combining NUVIA's world-class CPU and technology design team with Snapdragon to enable our ecosystem of customers to redefine computing performance, drive innovation, and deliver a new class of products and experiences for the 5G era. Just two years ago, we first announced our Snapdragon 855 mobile platform, the world's first commercial platform supporting multi-gigabit 5G and demonstrated end-to-end 5G consumer experiences with real demos over live millimeter wave 5G networks and devices. Today, we have an expanding portfolio of differentiated 5G solutions across multiple tiers of our Snapdragon mobile platforms. With high performance basebands, advanced RF front-end designs, and leading-edge process nodes for our flagship solutions, we are well-positioned to address growing 5G demand in the handset space and across our adjacencies. In RF, our position today is the result of executing on our strategy to extend the breadth of the products we offer. In just a few years, we have emerged as one of the largest RF suppliers in the smartphone ecosystem with a long-term roadmap supporting 4G and 5G sub-6 bands, in addition to 5G millimeter bands, enabling us to expand our RF leadership end-to-end product applications. The automotive industry continues to change rapidly and the car is becoming more connected, more autonomous, and more electric. As these trends disrupt the industry, 5G connectivity and new experiences and user demands, such as always-connected digital cabins for infotainment, real-time navigation, and entertainment are becoming the new standard. We are working to meet the increasing demands of safe and premium driving experiences powered by 4G LTE and 5G connected services. With integrated cellular V2X, WiFi, Bluetooth and precise positioning technologies, our 4G and 5G platforms are designed to securely connect vehicles to the cloud, each other, and the surrounding environment. With over 150 million vehicles on the road today connected with our modems, we are a leader in automotive telematics. We are evolving our strong position in automotive telematics to a strategic industry partner building incumbency with continued innovation as the auto industry undergoes rapid transformation. Our third-generation automotive cockpit solutions have been selected by 20 of the top-25 automakers and our recently announced fourth-generation automotive platform demonstrates our leadership in high-performance compute, computer vision, artificial intelligence, and multi-sensor processing. Lastly, our recently announced strategic engagements with General Motors and leading Tier 1 suppliers including LG Electronics, Google, Panasonic, and Visteon are further evidence of our strong alignment with the automotive industry. Turning to IoT, we continue to drive momentum in compute with the launch of our second-generation Snapdragon 8cx, the introduction of our commercial and educational platforms for both Windows and Chrome and continued ecosystem progress. We are also driving industry leadership in XR with over 40 design wins and strong ecosystem momentum with global operator partnerships. We believe XR has the potential to be the next computing platform. Our networking solutions target the full potential of Wi-Fi 6 with a blend of advanced technologies and protocols, targeting networks deployed in enterprise, venue, and prosumer applications. We are also extending our advanced Wi-Fi 6 feature profile into the 6-gigahertz spectrum with second-generation platforms. We are capitalizing on the transformation in private and public networks, enabling millimeter-wave indoor and outdoor launches in North America and Japan with our small cell solution, bringing higher reliability and speeds to consumers, as well as providing connectivity for 5G enterprise private networks of the future. Lastly, we are accelerating the deployment of our core technologies for digitization of non-mobile industries across retail, utilities, transportation, and manufacturing applications. It is exciting to see the strategy we laid out several years ago playing out largely as expected and placing Qualcomm in a very strong position for Cristiano to carry the vision forward as he executes on the many opportunities in front of us over many years. Being CEO of Qualcomm for the last seven years has been a privilege and an honor. The foundation of Qualcomm's leadership is a relentless commitment to innovating with great products, focusing on large industries with technical challenges that are hard to solve. This is what always gave me the confidence we would succeed even when it wasn't obvious and I have every confidence Cristiano shares this vision. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon everyone. We are extremely pleased to report strong results to start our fiscal year. We delivered a record first quarter with non-GAAP revenues of $8.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17, which was above the high end of the strong guidance we provided at the beginning of the quarter. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 63% and 119% in revenues and EPS, respectively, driven by strength across QTL and QCT. In QTL, we recorded revenues of $1.66 billion, up 18% year-over-year and EBT margins of 77%. In the December quarter, we saw a year-over-year reduction of 7% in global 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments compared to our planning assumption of a 5% reduction, reflecting the impact of COVID and softness in the domestic China shipments. In QCT, we delivered record results with revenues of $6.5 billion, up 32% sequentially and 81% year-over-year. These results were driven by strength across handsets, RF front-end, automotive, and IoT. Our strong revenue growth drove EBT margins of 29%, which was above the high end of our guidance and increased 900 basis points sequentially as we realized the benefit of operating leverage. We are also pleased with our continued diversification as we delivered record revenues in RF front-end, automotive, and IoT. RF front-end revenues of $1.1 billion more than doubled on a year-over-year basis, reflecting the strength of our broad product portfolio across all frequency bands and customers. Automotive revenues of $212 million grew 44% year-over-year as our telematics and digital cockpit products continued to benefit from the industry rebound. In IoT, revenues grew 48% year-over-year to $1 billion across consumer, networking, and industrial applications, driven by an acceleration in demand for our products and technologies. Our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses of $1.78 billion was lower than our previous estimate, primarily due to the timing of certain R&D expenses within the fiscal year. Turning to 5G adoption, we estimate approximately 225 million 5G handsets in calendar 2020 and forecast 450 million to 550 million units in calendar 2021. We are extremely pleased by the adoption of our 5G chipsets across OEM partners with over 800 designs using 5G modem and RF Solutions. Our recently announced 5G premium tier mobile platform, the Snapdragon 888 already has over 120 design wins. We now have 5G offerings across several tiers, from our premium tier Snapdragon 888 to our recently-announced Snapdragon 480, all capable of supporting millimeter-wave. For global 3G, 4G, 5G handsets, we estimate that shipments declined 12% on a year-over-year basis in calendar 2020. In calendar 2021, we expect total handsets to grow in high single-digits year-over-year. This assumes an impact from COVID in the first half, consistent with the exit rate of 2020 and a recovery in the second half. In addition, QCT's addressable market will expand to include Huawei's existing share which is estimated to be approximately 16% of total handsets in 2019. Turning to our second quarter guidance, we are forecasting revenues of $7.2 billion to $8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 to $1.75, a year-over-year increase of 46% and 88%, respectively at the midpoints. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.25 billion to $1.45 billion and EBT margins of 66% to 70%. This is in line with normal seasonality following the strong holiday quarter and reflects the slightly lower handset forecast I previously outlined. In QCT, we expect revenues of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, up 52% year-over-year and EBT margins of 23% to 25%, reflecting EBT dollar growth of 125% versus the year ago quarter. Consistent with historical trends, we estimate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up 5% to 6% sequentially due to normal calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs. We estimate that the pending acquisition of NUVIA will increase fiscal 2021 non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses by approximately $100 million, a portion of which is contemplated in our second quarter guidance. Looking forward to the third fiscal quarter, we estimate QTL revenues to be in a similar range as our second quarter guidance and expect QCT earnings to double on a year-over-year basis. This forecast contemplates the current seasonality of the QCT business, following the strength in the first half of the fiscal year, which was driven by 5G flagship launches, including Apple, the holiday season, and Chinese New Year. In addition, we are seeing demand significantly outpacing supply, given the constraints affecting the industry. Beyond the third quarter, we continue to forecast strong growth across QCT, driven by new device launches, design win traction, and strength in our adjacent platforms. Lastly, we launched our latest annual corporate responsibility and ESG report yesterday, which is now available on our website. I'm pleased to share that we have successfully met or exceeded our 2020 goals and have disclosed 2025 targets, focused across key areas of diversity and inclusion, purposeful innovation, and reducing our carbon footprint. We continue to respond to the expectations of our stakeholders to disclose ESG information in alignment with international standards. Before I finish my prepared remarks, I want to thank our employees for their continued hard work and focused execution. I will now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi, thanks for taking my question and before I ask my question, congratulations to both Steve and Cristiano. And so, if I can just start off with the seasonality here, I think, what you're guiding to for the QCT segment is a mid-single-digit decline in -- seasonally in revenues versus more of a mid-teens decline in QTL. Can you just help us understand the drivers, what's causing that difference? And I think that's leading to some concerns in investors today that the sell-end of chips is greater than the sell-through base and leading to some inventory build. So, I just wanted to see if you can address that as well.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi, Samik, this is Akash. We are not seeing any significant inventory build in the channel. So, let me just maybe clarify that to start with. If you think about QCT -- QTL revenues sequentially from December quarter to March quarter, we've talked about seasonality in that business consistently in the past. And so our guidance really reflects that. So, it's no different than kind of the shape of the year that you generally see in the handset market and mix of OEMs being reflected in the dollar. So, in the past, we talked about $1.7 billion midpoint going to $1.4 billion from December to March and what we are guiding is, we came in just below the midpoint in the December quarter and we're guiding similarly just below the $1.4 billion for the March quarter. So, that's the message on QTL. On QCT, clearly with Apple now in our revenue stream, there is a different seasonality than we've had in the past and so you see kind of that becoming a factor, but when you take -- remove that, our seasonality is actually extremely strong with significant growth from December to March quarter and really strength across not just mobile platform, with the launch of our Snapdragon 888 chipset, but also across RFFE, auto, and IoT being strong as well. So, it's really strength across the board. And what you see in the numbers is the seasonality of the revenue profile showing up.
Samik Chatterjee:
Yes. Got it. If I can quickly follow up, I think historically pre -- before the U.S. restrictions came into place, you've talked about Huawei not really being material in terms of contribution to earnings even though you had some MSM in your shipments there. Do you see a likely change or any material change post the restructuring of that business where there is a part of the business sold to Honor brand and I think there are also some restructurings going on for the Huawei brand, any changes that could lead to?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, as I -- Samik, as I said in my prepared remarks, we see the Huawei market share -- Huawei portion of the market really as a significant SAM growth opportunity for us as either the share goes to other OEMs or to Honor or Huawei continues, we have an opportunity to sell into it. So, kind of, longer term, in the second half of the year, we feel like that's a significant opportunity for us, but at this point, in our second quarter guidance there, we don't have material revenue assumed for Huawei or Honor.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks. And, I guess, my best to Steve navigating some tough times and best wishes to Cristiano also. My question, I guess, just focusing on the margin front, really strong margins on QCT. I know there's some seasonality into Q1 and an increased cost. But given the strong margin start to the year, Akash, how should we think about margin trends over time as you leverage and harvest that 5G investment?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, so, thanks, Mike, for that question. Very happy with the QCT margins in the December quarter, I mean, really at 29% operating margins and gross margins were extremely strong as well and contributing to the strength in the operating margin profile. So, very happy to see that. Really, when you look forward, there are a couple of factors driving our margin profile. Overall, from a gross margin perspective, there really isn't a specific trend. As we've said in the past, we feel like we have the ability to hold margins in the -- consistent with our recent history and potential upside opportunity to grow it and so we still have the same view. And operating margin will then just become kind of something that falls out based on the revenue profile. But just kind of when you abstract out the seasonality, we're pretty happy that we set a target at the Analyst Day last -- about 15 months ago and we are on our way to meeting and exceeding what we set out.
Mike Walkley:
Okay. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on the margins on the QTL side with a lot of the legal things dying down and signing over 120 5G contracts. Do you see the leverage on that side also maybe if you can reduce legal costs, or there's still high audit cost involved there? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Mike, from a QTL perspective, really legal costs have been at a stable lower level for the last several quarters. And so the margin profile that you're seeing kind of reflects stabilization of the legal cost and really it's about the topline revenue and focusing on kind of expanding and keeping the licensing business steady going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question. Chris, your line is live; you may proceed with your questions.
Chris Caso:
Hi. Excuse me. Thank you. So, for my first question, wondered if you could address the shortages and obviously it's something we've heard from a number of others in the industry this quarter. Can you talk about the extent to it? And in your opening remarks, you mentioned that revenue would have been higher if not for the shortages. Could you help us to quantify that some and then perhaps talk about the next couple of quarters, how that may play out if you recapture some of the business that you weren't able to ship in the December quarter and how that proceeds?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Chris, this is Cristiano. Yes, happy to address. We have seen, I think, probably shortage across the entire industry. There is a couple of factors driving that. One is V-shaped recovery, I think, across many of the sectors that were present now. We saw acceleration of digital transformation also consistent with this trend of the enterprise transformation of their home. And especially for Qualcomm and QCT, we have seen an opportunity with the expansion of addressable market. Huawei represent -- or it represented 16% of the market that becomes available to us across all of our OEMs. So, that's driving a situation that demand is outpacing supply. We're happy what we see right now on the premium tier, for example. In high tier, we see share gains in fiscal 2021 and we expect the situation to normalize towards the second half of the year.
Chris Caso:
Okay. Thank you. And with that, you made some comments about the fiscal third quarter, that perhaps you could clarify. First on the QTL side, you were talking about similar levels on QTL, if you can help us to reconcile that with your view of mobile handset units, I think you said growing 7% sequentially. And then you gave us something to go on with regard to the QCT side with the profitability doubling. And I guess, with that, should we assume that would -- that profitability doubling would be at similar operating margins to what you're guiding for, for the March quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Chris, so this is Akash. I think QTL, as we've said in the past, we're going to see the market consistent between March and June quarters in terms of how the overall market -- mobile market behaves. And so that's what is reflected in the data point we provided for the June quarter. QCT, I think it's a fair way of thinking about it. We are expecting it to be extremely strong, doubling profit year-over-year basis and margin profile is really going to kind of fallout from the scale of the revenue as we discussed earlier. From -- just what is reflected in our third quarter numbers is just the natural seasonality of the business now that we have Apple in our revenue stream and their -- the timing of their purchases within the year is reflected in the data points we are providing.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you. I wonder if you can give us color on the growth in RF being so impressive when you look at 5G units potentially kind of more than doubling, when you look at millimeter-wave really at one customer and one region. I'm just surprised at how robust December is and kind of can you talk to the sustainability of those revenue levels and the growth drivers going forward.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Joe, it's Cristiano. Yes, it's very consistent to what we have been saying since the beginning of 5G. We saw 5G as an entry point for us. We have a highly differentiated solution with our modem-to-antenna platform and all of those designs. I think we updated the design count now 5G is in excess of 800 designs. They all contain 5G RF front-end components. Also we like that it's very diversified RF front-end revenues across our customers, also with a lot of sub-6, it's not only millimeter-wave, even though we are very happy with the expansion prospects of millimeter-wave and that's definitely an accelerator for Qualcomm. So, it's a business which is now one of the fastest growing business we have. We're happy we achieved the threshold of $1 billion and we'll continue to grow as we grow 5G.
Joe Moore:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to dig again in the chipset margin guidance. So, you're guiding chipset profit dollars down over $400 million sequentially on about $280 million revenue decline, that's like a 150% negative incremental margins. But presumably the mix ought to be getting better as Apple and the handset stuff rolls off in the adjacencies. It sounds like they grow. So, like what is going on in there? Like why are the margins coming down that much, given the revenue trajectory?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, a couple of factors, Stacy, its Akash. First is, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we typically see kind of a resetting of certain expenses on the OpEx side, so you have OpEx growth that happens between the December and the March quarter. And this is consistent with history. So, if you go back and look at our numbers in the past, you kind of see the same increase. So that impacts the margin a bit. Second is we did see some strength in certain pockets in the December quarter in our gross margin profile. So, gross margin profile was higher in the December quarter than our recent trend and what we're guiding forward is some something that's consistent with our recent trend. So, any upside to that would be something that, of course, we're going to try to execute on, but it'd be upside to our guidance.
Stacy Rasgon:
Thank you. And then if I can follow-up on QTL margins. So you're guiding 68% on, whatever it is, $1.35 billion at the midpoint. In 2019, you were actually running higher than that, you were at like $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, so lower revenues, you've had margins that were in line to higher than what you're guiding now with legal costs that presumably were higher. So, like what's going on on the QTL side, why aren't margins higher on this revenue level?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Stacy, there is no something specific going on. I mean, if you go back to Analyst Day -- and I don't have the 2019 numbers in front of me, but if you go back to Analyst Day, what we laid out in front of you for the full year for QTL where we thought the margin for the year would be higher than 70% with Huawei result, we are very much executing to the target we laid out. We think we're in good place to execute on it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey thanks for taking my question. Just revisiting on the margin side, given the shortages you're seeing and just kind of if you could just comment on your input costs and whether that's kind of rolled in yet or whether that's an impact kind of going forward to EBT margin?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, I think, Blayne, as you'd expect, a lot of our conversations with the customers and suppliers are around how we address supply and our agreements on price generally tend to be longer term. So, really that's where we are focused on, as kind of being good partners to our customers and focusing on supply. Margin is consistent with our recent history and that's what's reflected in the guidance.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks. And then just for the June quarter, the doubling of QCT profits. I think, obviously, the new large customer; you may be seasonally down there just on the Android side, that's typically a stronger quarter particularly if the market is going to double. So, just kind of the moving pieces, actually looks like Q-to-Q would be down sequentially from March to June to keep that doubling of profit. So, just any perspective on your outlook with your Android within that?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Blayne, there isn't a specific trend that I'd like to point out there. I think our -- the strength of our business remains consistent between the quarters on Android.
Cristiano Amon:
Maybe -- this is Cristiano. I just want to add a small data point. If you -- there is, as Akash outlined, seasonality because of one large U.S. customer. But if you look at what is happening outside that, actually we're very happy with what we see in terms of a premium and high-tier share gains. I pointed to the addressable market that is becoming available to us from Huawei and that's going to be a growth story, especially for the QCT premium and high-tier as we go throughout the quarters.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi guys. You guided smartphone to be going up -- going from minus 12% last year to go up high single-digit this year. Can you give us like a little bit of color of regions, also kind of types of smartphones, any color on the composition of the growth this year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi Tal, this is Akash. So, really what our guidance -- just to reiterate it, we are saying the market was down 12%, 2019 to 2020 -- calendar 2019 to calendar 2020 and would grow in high single-digits from 2020 to 2021 and this reflects kind of continuing COVID impact in the first half and then recovery in the second half. Really within that market, what's the critical driver for us is how 5G plays out. And so if you look at our 5G forecast, we're expecting it to go up from 225 million in calendar 2020 to a midpoint of 500 million. So, very strong growth and that's kind of the key driver for us in terms of how our revenue expands on the chip side. And then maybe last thing I'll point out is to Cristiano's comment earlier, Huawei has been a very large OEM and it was -- really from a chip perspective, it was mostly high silicon that was satisfying their demand. Now, with the change in the market, we have kind of 16% of the market that was not available to us before being available. So, as we kind of look further out, we see this as a pretty material expansion of SAM for us.
Tal Liani:
So, just as a follow-up, if the market is going from declines to growth, what's the impact on QTL at the high level? Meaning, is this growth going to be in high end countries where anyway you're hitting the limit of the ceiling for the price of $400 or is it going to be mostly in developing markets where the growth in -- the improvement in growth can translate also improvement in the total addressable market, meaning units times price? I'm trying to understand the impact of the ceiling to the price for QTL.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, I think from a QTL perspective, the way we see 5G benefiting the ASP is just 5G goes into lower tiers. Below the ceiling, it kind of makes the mix richer for us. As people upgrade devices, they buy more expensive devices and that would be the opportunity for QTL. But we -- again, we are not planning that into our forecast at this point and we see it has a potential upside as it materializes.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
Ross Seymore:
Hi guys. Thanks for letting me ask the question and first of all, congratulations to both Steve and Cristiano. I wanted to go back on the QCT side to the China dynamic and that 16% increase in your SAM. How are you guys handling the potential inventory dynamic where the Honor side might keep the share and you could get design wins there? But all of the aspiring share gainers are also going to build to take share, so there's the potential for inventory coming back. I realize, in a period of shortage, it might not be an issue for you, but how are you managing avoiding that pitfall?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hey Ross, it's Akash. It's definitely something that we are trying to manage carefully. I mean, we do have very strong demand from various OEMs. But as you rightly pointed out, it really is more of a supply-driven market and so we have more opportunity to sell and increase our revenue than we can supply at this point. So, it's really -- that's the primary focus and we don't really have any inventory concerns at this point with our customers.
Cristiano Amon:
If I could answer your question--
Ross Seymore:
As my follow-up--
Cristiano Amon:
Ross, this question, I just want to add one thing. Given the size of those customers, the semiconductor supply chain is probably sized for where the market sizes. So, that in itself provides some correction on inventory.
Ross Seymore:
Great. Thanks for that color, Cristiano. I guess, as my follow-up, if I went back to the margin side of things, it seems like you're guiding the implied gross margin down about three points sequentially in the March quarter. And then I understand QTL goes down and QCT up. So, from a mix perspective, that would happen, but it's still a little bit greater than I would have expected. You answered in a prior question, Akash, a little bit about a normalization that you're assuming there. I wanted to dive a little into what was driving the upside in the December quarter and why would that change going into the March quarter.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, I think, Ross, it was -- the December quarter upside was just driven by mix across businesses and we have certain customers who made purchases earlier than they would usually purchase. So, it's just more operational mix that drove the upside and so, we're not forecasting that at this point going forward.
Ross Seymore:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon guys. For my first question, I think a number of folks have asked about this 16% of the market that was Huawei that's now available to you, and I think you guys all answered about potential inventory buildup to this point, but no secret that Huawei had been building finished goods and semiconductor inventories going into the situation. Cristiano, any thoughts as to how long they can remain in the market and win that opportunity to -- for share shift that may present itself to you guys from a timing perspective? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi Matt. Thanks for your question. Look, we measure those things based on the design activity and why we can't really predict how much inventory they have, especially on the high and premium tiers, whether you get range through a carrier in the portfolio or you get range in the retailer, the market's already moving. And as I said earlier, we have -- we've seen very strong design activity. We are in a positive position, because we're very well hedged. If iOS win, if Samsung Android wins, if Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi wins or even if, over time, companies like Honor wins, we're very well-positioned there and we'll see how they'll play out. But I will say that the -- because of how distributors and the carriers think about it, the portfolio is already switching and that's reflecting in the design activity we see right now.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thank you for that. I guess an unrelated follow-up question. I was interested in the acquisition of NUVIA. The team had made some changes on the CPU side a few years ago to be, I think, more dependent on, I guess, licensed cores directly from ARM for the Snapdragon portfolio and I wonder what the acquisition of NUVIA might signal around your intentions there, number one. And number two, about ambitions into markets that include Chromebooks, notebooks, 5G connected, consumer prices, et cetera, if there is any comments there on the TAM, Akash that would be helpful. Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
So, Matt, let me just start and I will shift to Akash to talk about the TAM. We're very excited about that acquisition. And it's probably very clear, if you look on the announcement we made, one thing that was really incredible is the support we received from the mobile ecosystem, every single OEM was there, with the exception of two, which -- it doesn't really apply to them. And then you have the entire computing ecosystem there, both across the Windows and Chrome. For us, it basically reflect this view that we had of full conversions between mobile and computing. I think we are in the very beginning of that with our Windows and Snapdragon program and create opportunities for us to do a step function increase in performance with the -- obviously, the power advantage of Qualcomm, both across premium smartphones, as well as the computing segment and that is likely to be a key differentiation for Qualcomm going forward.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And really for the -- if you think about the addressable market for the PC and Chromebooks market, this is over a couple of hundred million of units, right? So, it's a very large market and what's really important for us is to be able to combine CPU -- leading CPU technology along with the other assets that we have in mobile and address that -- and address this market in a differentiated fashion. And so we feel pretty good about our ability to do that. I'll also say the CPU has lot of implications outside mobile phones and PC market along with -- into auto and IoT as well. So, it's an asset that's going to be broadly relevant to the end markets we pursue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mitch Steves:
Yes. Congratulations guys. I just had a couple of questions here, just kind of circling back to the inventory thing, kind of looking at the full year. So, maybe first, I mean, how does Qualcomm kind of mitigate the idea that some people are overbuilding on the smartphone side, trying to gain share from Huawei and if they're going to have the back half kind of drop-off? And then secondly, maybe a better way to ask this question, I know you guys don't give full year guidance, but if I look at the full year in terms of calendar year basis, what kind of balance do you guys think the revenue is going to look like? Is it going to be more 45%, 55%? Just how should a calendar year look like now, now that Apple is kind of a major customer for you guys?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Mitch, on your second question, if you just look at our profile of customers, right, as we go past the third quarter and go into the fourth quarter, we're going to have flagship devices being launched again, going all the way to the holiday season. So, it does become a kind of a pretty area of strength as we go into September and December quarter relative to June. So, we are expecting revenues to grow significantly, not just in mobile but in RF front-end that goes with it, and then also in IoT and auto, we're continuing to see strength in the design win pipeline. So, it's really across the board.
Cristiano Amon:
And maybe to your first question, Mitch, maybe reiterating what we said before, we don't see -- I think we heard a lot in this call about discrepancy between sell-in and sell-out, we don't see that. We actually see demand outpacing supply and the supply availability is what's really regulating the market. So, we're not too concerned about that at this point.
Mitch Steves:
I guess maybe if I can sneak this in, so I guess what do you think is causing that demand surge? Is it just 5G? I'm just curious as to what's giving you guys the confidence that continues for the rest of the year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sorry, Mitch, can you repeat that question?
Mitch Steves:
So, you guys are saying you're confident that demand is out-stripping supply and the sell-through is fine. So, I'm curious as to why you believe the demand is there and it's so significant versus prior cycle.
Cristiano Amon:
It's Cristiano. Let me address it again. It's a couple of things, right? We have been saying, and I think that's been a key driver in QCT, we are growing on a market that grows single-digit, we're growing faster than the market as both, I think, our expansion into 5G as well as the addressable market that is expanding for us, the Huawei 16% example, that's one. The other one is we have seen good numbers on 5G. We -- for the calendar year, we actually -- the range we went to the high end of the guide with 225 million 5G units and our guide for 2021, it's -- I think the upper side of the guide is in the 550 million, so the 5G transition is robust, device ecosystem has to move on and we see an expansion of addressable market. That is all giving confidence and the supply chain situations, I said earlier, it's been broad across the industry, it's not unique to handset. We also saw the acceleration of digital transformation across the industry in the V-shaped recovery, but it should get normalized towards the later part of 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes. Thanks very much. I just wanted to dig in a bit on the shortages that you flagged. Just specifically what is the main sort of source here of the shortages? Is it more sort of 5-nanometer yield challenges you're seeing and that's sort of impacting the premium flagship segment that you operate in or is it more sort of PMICs and what's happening with SMIC? I mean, can you maybe just talk a bit more about some of the challenges you're having here? And specifically, when do you think we come out of the shortage situation? Is it going to be the June quarter or do we have to wait for the second half before things get back to normal? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you for your question. Look, the simple answer is the shortage in the semiconductor industry is across the board, not only leading nodes but also legacy nodes. You should think about it that it's used -- legacy process is used in a lot of automotive, it's used in all of the networking products and consumer electronics and also you see that in a lot of the attaches, whether power management chips or RF chips. So, the V-shaped recovery that we've seen across the industry and all of the accelerated digitization is driving semiconductors and we've seen that across the board. Specific to a 5-nanometer, I think we're ramping a new process; it's very consistent to our expectations. I'll argue that we probably -- for a ramp of a new process with our partner, this time we shipped more in the quarter on -- early in the ramp for Snapdragon 800 and we expect, to your question, this to normalize towards the later part of 2021 as capacity is put in place and we see some of the demand across other sectors of the industry to catch-up with supply.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Thanks. And maybe just a follow-up on QTL. So, I mean, you spoke a lot about some of the success you're having in QCT regarding autos and you referenced 20 of the top-25 automakers are using the cockpit platform and you've got a $8.3 billion backlog. How do we think about the QTL opportunity here for -- specifically for autos? I mean is there something you can share with us in terms of how royalty agreements are going here and what sort of royalty rates we can expect for 5G, given the use cases are very different in autos going forward? Thank you.
Alex Rogers:
This is Alex. Thanks for the question. We've had a long-term licensing program in automotive telematics for 3G, 4G. We're actually having quite good success with our 5G licensing, of course, not a lot of 5G units have hit the road yet. We haven't released details of the licensing program or the particular royalty structure at this point in time, but maybe at some point in the future.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, first question, with RF front-end doubling calendar 2020 versus calendar 2019, curious if there is a framework that you could provide in thinking about the growth trajectory into 2021. Obviously, you had two quarters now of Apple millimeter-wave in there, would love to hear any thoughts that you could provide in terms of how to think about the growth here in 2021 and beyond, if you can?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi C.J., it's Akash. At Analyst Day, we laid out kind of the financial targets for the RF front-end business. We said we want to be greater than 20% off an $18 billion market. We are very confident that we are on our way to achieving that in an accelerated fashion versus the timeline we had laid out. So, we had said we'd get there in 2022 and we feel like we are there -- able to get there in an accelerated fashion. So, pretty happy about that.
C.J. Muse:
Okay, that's helpful. And as my follow-up, you've had a number of questions, I guess, on the supply constraint front and EBT margins for QCT. But, I guess, I wanted to ask a little bit differently. In terms of higher wafer and OSAT costs and you talked earlier about how you have longer term contracts with set pricing, curious how we should be thinking about perhaps higher costs earlier in the year versus later in the calendar year and what that might mean for the trajectory of QCT margins over time. And I guess as part of that, you showed great growth from 14% to 22% in calendar 2020. Considering your outlook for 5G, should we be seeing another kind of stair step higher for margins there? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. C.J., from a wafer cost and fab cost perspective, really kind of not much of a story for us. It's really consistent with what we had expected before and we feel confident that we can execute to the margin profiles that we've outlined, both kind of from an Analyst Day long-term perspective and also guidance we are providing. Really as you look at the second half of the year, we are looking forward to strong revenue growth across all of our businesses and, of course, the margin will benefit from that as well just as we get scale and the operating leverage benefits shows up.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. I guess my first question is just on QCT. So, you'd guided QCT down, I think, 15% for March last call and now it's down just a little bit off of the December base, it was about as you guided. So, -- and that's even despite some of the constraints that you had talked about. So, the story really is that March on the component side is even better than what you thought it was three months ago, but that's despite sell-through on the licensing side being actually little bit worse than you thought due to COVID. So, I guess, the first question is why is QCT so much better than what you saw three months ago? And this is the fourth quarter where these two businesses are sort of going in opposite direction. So, I guess I wanted to better understand why -- Cristiano, why I think it's a problem as you get into the back half of the year. Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Tim its Akash. One of the things we -- the one of the key factors that kind of drives the two businesses going in different direction, in this case, is just timing of purchases by large customers and so we saw some accelerated purchases in -- going into the March quarter versus June. And so it's just depending on how the inventory strategies play out for different customers. The timing makes an impact as to when we see the improvement in our financial performance. But underlying trend, there is no kind of specific story; it's just how things play out based on sell-through and timing of when people buy parts.
Cristiano Amon:
Look, if I can add one thing just real quick. Also, maybe it's the beginning of this process, but QCT is showing also other growth drivers, like the automotive growth driver, the IoT growth driver. So, over time, as the business get more diversified, I think, you're going to have probably less correlation between the two.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks. Thanks for that. And I guess my last question is on millimeter-wave. So, I guess, the first 100 megahertz of C-band is going to clear at the end of this year. And it seems like the big U.S. carrier that was kind of driving that is going to maybe shift some of their CapEx over to build out C-band in the next two years. I know some of the other U.S. carriers are talking about building out millimeter-wave in 2023 and beyond. Can you just talk about the pace of adoption for millimeter-wave? Obviously, you have a lot of leverage there. Do you think it's going to be lumpy, or do you just see it growing from here? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. This is Cristiano. Look, we are very pleased with what we see in millimeter-wave. We restate what we said, I think, you need millimeter-wave for the full potential of 5G and especially as you look at some of the more advanced applications beyond smartphones, millimeter-wave continue to be a requirement for the premium devices in the United States. We're very pleased to see that one of our large customer had brought millimeter-wave across all price points of their devices. In this quarter, we saw Germany with the auction rules starting for millimeter-wave at 26 gigahertz and we continue to see activity indicating that China is likely to have millimeter-wave for 2022. So, we're happy what we see, it's progressing as we plan, and as you said it correctly, millimeter-wave is probably an accelerator of our 1.5 multiplier in QCT.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. Thank you. First of all, I want to thank folks who gave the kind words on the call, I know Cristiano feels the same way. This is actually, if I count correctly, my 50th earnings call. So, I appreciate the hard work from the Qualcomm team, making it a record. I look forward to seeing where the company goes; it's exceedingly well-positioned. And thank you all for joining us today. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 4, 2020. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853, international callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13711766. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan. Please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopfl and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question and answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements include projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements, please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K once filed which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2020 was an extraordinary year, presenting both a unique set of opportunities as well as challenges. We achieved a number of significant accomplishments including scaling 5G devices globally with our partners, while navigating the sudden onset of the global pandemic. In March with the safety of our employees as our top priority, we rapidly aligned our operations to a completely different work environment. We were able to limit the number of onsite essential workers, while simultaneously executing on product commitments and driving our business forward. The challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the critical importance of our technology and products. I want to thank our 41,000 Qualcomm team members for their steadfast commitment to our mission of inventing and commercializing breakthrough wireless technologies. As you can see from our results, the early stages of the 5G ramp are well underway with our strategy playing out largely as expected. We delivered Q4 non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and a record non-GAAP earnings of $1.45 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 35% and 86%, respectively both exceeding the high end of our guidance. QCT revenues of $5 billion were up 38% year-over-year. It's worth noting that our Q4 QCT revenue a new record included only a partial quarter impact from a large US OEM customer. This strong result demonstrates the breadth of our customer traction. While our transition from a 4G leader to a 5G leader was faced with numerous challenges, our employees remained focus throughout. Since January 2016 confident in our ability to execute on the upcoming 5G ramp, we spent $30 billion to retire 25% of our shares at an average price of approximately $64.50, amplifying the benefits of the organic growth you are seeing today. As you can see in our results, we have successfully commercialized our innovation leadership in our product business through a combination of higher dollar share of content combined with significant 5G design wins with leading OEMs around the world. Our foundational 5G innovations unmatched patent portfolio and ecosystem collaborations enable us to drive the industry forward to facilitate the rapid global adoption of 5G. Our continued innovation drive success and stability in our licensing business. All major handset OEMs are under license and we now have over 110 5G agreements. In fiscal '20, our focus on innovation continued at an accelerated pace despite COVID-19 challenges. Year-over-year invention disclosures were up over 60% and 5G related invention disclosures more than doubled. We continue to drive innovation advances in 5G through releases '17, '18 and beyond, which will enable the adoption of wireless technology broadly beyond smartphones and into other industries. We have sustained this focus despite unwarranted legal challenges and we now look forward to continuing our decades-long commitment to fundamental transformative innovation. Over the years, we have built strong portfolios in several key areas that converge with and enable wireless systems and applications, such as multimedia, security and artificial intelligence. Our proven ability to invent and commercialize leading technologies is the foundation of how we drive long-term value for our stockholders. The early success of our 5G rollout is a great testament to our strategy of investing well in advance of these large opportunities. 5G represents the single largest opportunity in our history, creating new opportunities to extend our leadership. This will continue to play out over many years as wireless disruption will impact many industries. As an example, several years ago, we identified RF as a unique transition opportunity to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a 5G experience. I am particularly proud of how the team has executed against this opportunity, creating a leadership position in a short period of time. In fiscal '20, we delivered $2.4 billion of RF front-end revenue, up 60% year-over-year. Qualcomm is now one of the largest RF suppliers with design wins across all our premium-tier smartphone customers and with a long-term roadmap to continue to grow our RF leadership, as 5G is adopted in other industries. Our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front-end solutions, whether they support 4G, sub-6, millimeter wave or both 5G bands and whether they are in smartphones or other products such as embedded modules for PCs, IoT solutions or mobile hotspots. As we have in RF, we have built beachhead positions in both auto and IoT. Our scale enables us to make multiple profitable bets in areas we expect a tailwind as each of these industry roadmaps adopts cellular technologies. As you can see taking place today in automotive, where we have emerged as a strategic technology partner through the automotive industry, with nearly all the major OEMs adopting our products. Next-generation 5G telematics design wins in addition to our 3G and 4G design wins solidify our position as a leader in connected cars. We are also extending our mobile RF front-end leadership into automotive, where 100% of our next-generation 5G and a majority of our next generation 4G telematics design wins include our automotive-qualified RF front-end products. In addition, our digital cockpit solutions now in the third generation enable best-in-class capabilities across premium, mid and entry tier solutions. Our automotive design win pipeline is now approximately $8 billion, up from almost $6.5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into meeting the long-term revenue targets we provided at our Analyst Day last November. The automotive industry is transforming at an unprecedented rate and we are incredibly well-positioned to lead the industry with a long-term opportunity to expand our dollar share of content in auto as we have done in smartphones. Turning to IoT, we are extending our IP investments from across the Company into our portfolio of connected and non-connected products with a broad portfolio of technologies, including connectivity, lower power processing, and security. We are also diversified across multiple product areas and industry verticals as we have nearly 13,000 customers. In fiscal '20, we saw better-than-anticipated performance in IoT with strong revenue growth driven largely by demand in networking, retail, industrial, tracking and utilities verticals. Our high-performance WiFi solutions continue to drive WiFi access point toward record levels. And looking forward, our WiFi continues to evolve, our execution on WiFi 6E has put Qualcomm into a leadership position. We've also brought wearable solutions to our smartphone OEMs, as well as the broader ecosystem of consumer product companies. Our inventions, technology and roadmap have also enabled us to establish a leadership position in XR. With over 30 commercial devices our Snapdragon XR solutions that connect physical and digital spaces are the consumer and enterprise platforms of choice. We have been driving the cost and performance curve of low-power high-performance compute since our first launch of the Snapdragon in 2007. We are also investing in next-generation infrastructure and edge compute, two areas today that we believe will create significant opportunities in several years. Our objective is to provide technology differentiation that will enable us to achieve a leadership position. As the cloud converges with the mobile Internet, wireless networks are transforming and becoming virtualized. Beyond the cost and operational benefits for service providers, virtualization is enabling new service provider models, where infrastructure is intersecting with digital services such as you have seen with Rakuten and Jio. Turning to inference, with over 10 years of AI R&D and over 1 billion AI-capable devices enabled with our technology and fundamental assets such as low power compute, process node leadership and signal processing expertise, we are well-positioned to extend our smartphone AI leadership into growing applications such as data centers, edged appliances and 5G infrastructure. Building on our modem and RF expertise, we recently announced our new 5G RAN platform offerings. These platforms will provide foundational technology for high-performance infrastructure and will accelerate the cellular ecosystem transition towards virtualized and interoperable Radio Access Networks, a trend driven by 5G. Our expanded portfolio which is scalable from macro to micro sites will include integrated support for 5G millimeter wave and sub-6 gigahertz spectrum across all key global bands. Together with our partners, we are helping to drive the vRAN transition with commercial products expected by calendar year 2023. In summary, with leading technology and intellectual property, a differentiated product roadmap and 5G, we are well-positioned for a multi-year growth opportunity. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. We are extremely pleased to report another strong quarter to conclude a challenging year in which we remained resilient and achieved several key business milestones. Our fourth fiscal quarter non-GAAP results came in above the high end of our guidance range for revenue and EPS, driven by strong performance in both QTL and QCT. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and record EPS of $1.45 with year-over-year increases of 35% and 86%, respectively. We delivered GAAP revenues of $8.3 billion and EPS of $2.58. As a reminder, these results include the benefit related to prior periods from our recent licensing and settlement agreements with Huawei. In the fourth quarter, we saw a year-over-year reduction of approximately 5% in global 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments relative to our prior planning assumption of a 15% reduction. The upside was driven by a strong rebound in emerging markets, following the impact of COVID-19 on handset demand in previous quarters. In QTL, we delivered revenues of $1.5 billion and EBT margin of 73% both above the high end of our guidance range. This upside was driven by higher global handset shipments and a favorable OEM mix. In QCT, we delivered strong results with MSM shipments of 162 million units, revenues of $5 billion, which was above the high end of our guidance range. We are pleased to report EBT margins of 20%, achieving the long-term target we had provided at our 2019 Analyst Day. QCT revenues and EBT increased 38% and 103%, respectively on a year-over-year basis, driven by strength in handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. RF front-end revenues of $852 million were higher than our prior guidance of $750 million, reflecting design traction across major handset OEMs. In automotive, we saw sequential revenue growth of 36%, to $188 million as our telematics, connectivity and digital cockpit products benefited from the industry rebound. In IoT, increased demand for connected devices due to the work from home environment drove 21% sequential revenue growth to $926 million. We're excited about our opportunities in this growing industry segment. I will now summarize the results for fiscal 2020. Despite the challenging economic environment due to COVID-19, we achieved non-GAAP revenues of $21.7 billion, and EPS of $4.19, up 12% and 18%, respectively, versus fiscal 2019. In addition, we executed on several key milestones, including the completion of long-term license agreements, acceleration of 5G and RF front-end design traction and building a platform for long-term growth in automotive and IoT. Turning to 5G handsets, we are pleased to see that all major handset OEMs have now commercialized 5G smartphones, many of which are using our modem to antenna system solution, including millimeter-wave for select regions. In total, we now have over 700 5G designs announced or in development. We are maintaining our bias towards the high end of our previous forecast of 175 million to 225 million units for calendar 2020 5G handsets. In calendar 2021, we are forecasting 450 to 550 5G handsets, a year-over-year growth of 150% at the midpoint. For our global 3G, 4G, 5G handset forecast, we are using a planning assumption of approximately 5% decline versus calendar 2019 for the December quarter and for calendar 2021. This estimate is consistent with the impact we saw in the September quarter. This implies year-over-year growth of high-single digits for total handsets in calendar 2021. I will now outline our decision to provide enhanced QCT revenue disclosures going forward. Starting with this quarter's results, we are providing revenue breakout by handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. With this change, we will not provide MSM guidance or actuals going forward. This disclosure will allow tracking of our progress for each of these categories as 5G expands our growth opportunity outside mobile. In addition, this change is consistent with the framework we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. Please refer to our Investor Relations website for additional detail and historical revenue breakout. Turning to our first fiscal quarter guidance. We are forecasting strong earnings with revenues of $7.8 billion to $8.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 to $2.15, a year-over-year increase of 62% and 107% respectively at the midpoint. In QTL, we are estimating revenues of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion and EBT margin of 74% to 78%, reflecting a sequential increase due to flagship handset launches and holiday seasonality. In QCT, we estimate revenues of $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion, up 80% year-over-year at the midpoint, driven by growth across handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. We expect QCT EBT margins to be between 25% and 27%, reflecting an EBT increase of $1.2 billion versus the year-ago period. Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up approximately 2% sequentially. Looking forward to the second fiscal quarter, based on the handset assumptions I previously outlined and the seasonal decline after the holidays, we estimate QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. In QCT following the launch of a flagship 5G handset, we now expect second quarter seasonality to be consistent with QTL and global handset shipments. As a reminder, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses are typically higher in the second fiscal quarter as it includes the normal calendar year reset for certain employee-related costs. For the second half of fiscal 2021, we expect the quarterly profile for both our QTL and QCT businesses to be consistent with the seasonality of the global handset shipments. Lastly, for each quarter in fiscal 2021, we are forecasting net interest expense of approximately $125 million, weighted average shares outstanding of 1.15 billion and a non-GAAP annual effective tax rate of 14%. Before I finish my prepared remarks, I want to thank our employees for their contribution throughout this unprecedented year. In fiscal 2021, we are focused on delivering revenue growth and operating leverage in line with the financial targets we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. We remain focused on executing on our 5G roadmap and commercializing breakthrough technologies that will drive growth for many years. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks for -- thanks for taking my questions. I hope everybody's well on the call. Just a question on the EBT margins, very strong implied guidance for the seasonally strong Q4, but you also highlighted some investment for growth in new areas. How should we think just about trends in terms of margins for QTL and QCT as you harvest 5G investments? And in QTL, perhaps you lower legal expenses and maybe see some higher margins there. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Mike. This is Akash. Really from a margin perspective, we are extremely happy first of all to deliver the 20% margin in QCT in the September quarter. I mean that's -- we have guided a midpoint of 18% and we are happy to see us get to that target a quarter sooner than we had anticipated. As you saw, we are guiding strength going into the December quarter as well with the midpoint that's at 26% in QCT. As we go forward, one of the things that you have to keep in mind is just the seasonality of the businesses. If -- let me address QTL and then QCT again. For QTL, seasonally strong quarter in December, given kind of the handset launches that happened and then overall holiday impact. As you go beyond that, we've provided a guidance of -- for the March quarter, so that will give you a second data point. And then really between those data points and our actuals for September, you'll be able to forecast kind of the rest of the year. From a margin perspective, we had given guidance at Analyst Day and that contemplated how our financials would play out in QTL. So it's very consistent with that. So we don't really have an update relative to that guidance point. For QCT, as you think about the December quarter guidance, again, a very strong quarter seasonally now with the launch of flagship 5G handset with our chip in it. It drives our -- December quarter is very strong. The seasonality of the business changes though with this launch and what happens is when you look at -- it's different than the last couple of years, you almost have to go back three or four years, where typically, we saw a decline of 15% in revenues between first quarter and second quarter in QCT just based on seasonality. And so we'll be reconciled more to that seasonality going forward. From a margin perspective, strong margin in QCT in first quarter and then really the margin will change based on the profile of the revenue as we move forward.
Mike Walkley:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on the results, strong results here. I just wanted to start off, I have a couple of questions. Wanted to start off on the RF content, which you -- on smartphones, which you clearly outlined is doing better than you expected, just based on the visibility you have into the pipeline in fiscal '21, how should we think about either meeting or even exceeding the targets you outlined for RF on smartphone. I think it was about $3.5 billion of revenue that you outlined at the Analyst Day. If you can just share your thoughts on that and I have a follow up?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Samik, it's Akash again. So I think from a guidance perspective for RF front-end, as you'll recall at Analyst Day, we said we expect to be more than 20% share in an $18 billion market and that target was really for fiscal '22 and we're very happy with the way our RF front-end business has played out, we are seeing, seeing a lot of strength, not just in the quarter we reported and the forward quarter, but just really in the long term design win pipeline across the board. So we're very optimistic that we'll be able to get to -- get to our target sooner, but really beyond that, we are not updating kind of our longer-term guidance at this point.
Cristiano Amon :
Hi, Samik. It's Cristiano. Just one quick comment for you. The -- as we increase the number of designs to 680, the trend continues, we see 5G [prior to front end] [ph] attached to some of those designs, so we feel pretty good about the pipeline, continue to grow that business.
Samik Chatterjee:
All right. And if I could just follow up, obviously, there's been a lot of changes in the environment here with the current restrictions on Huawei smartphone business or kind of the restrictions impacting that, how should I think about how that is impacting results right now? Is it proving in your kind of view to be a headwind to industry volumes or kind of our -- competitors to Huawei ordering more, that's kind of helping results. How should I think about the impact?
Cristiano Amon :
Thanks for the question, Samik. This is Cristiano. So as you know, right now, we -- as we don't have a license to sell products to Huawei, we're not selling to Huawei. The way you should think about this and consistent to what we have said on the last earnings call, the Huawei opportunity creates an expansion of addressable market for QCT. We feel fully hedged in our position given our very high traction with all the premium and high tier OEMs, and whether that in the long run, it's an opportunity with Huawei, in the event that we receive a license or if an opportunity for our customers, we actually see that is a net positive in the expansion of TAM for QCT and we expect that to play out as we look at demand in the handset towards 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everybody. Akash, I guess, maybe this question is for you and Cristiano partly, really appreciate the additional disclosures in QTL or in QCT rather, maybe you could talk about given the magnitude of the upside to the outlook for the December quarter. And just help us a little bit to break down that upside in the chip business by maybe units and then also RF versus maybe core ASPs and units in the modem business. If you could just sort of give us some help there just given the magnitude of the upside and the change in the disclosures, just so we can all foot model that at least for this first quarter out of the gate? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Matt. So, let me just kind of quickly run through the disclosure change. What we really wanted to do was over the last couple of years our business has evolved a bit and so we are seeing a different set of drivers for revenue growth than units and so it's driven by obviously 4G to 5G transition, driving more content, RF front-end and then automotive and IoT playing a key role in our growth as well. And so the goal with it was to give data points that will allow the investors to track our progress in this area, and then again, it's very consistent with how we outlined our business at Analyst Day. And then that's kind of the core thought process behind it. As you see in the September quarter, we've given a disclosure on the breakdown, a lot of strength across each of those areas, you've seen a strong growth in IoT which was driven by a demand for connected devices and in the home and as kind of the work from home environment permits, there is just an increasing need for connectivity. And then we also saw a rebound on the auto side, that drove significant strength. As we look forward, all of those trends are holding for us, so we expect kind of a similar strength going into next quarter for each of those areas. We are obviously not providing a breakdown of our forecast, we are providing it at the total QCT level. But the underlying strength really all those drivers remain looking forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes, thank you. I guess, first question was with regard to QTL, and I guess the results for the September quarter and the guidance for the December quarter is above what the sort of normal levels that you've referred to before. So -- and I guess, what you're talking about for the March quarter is as well. Is this sort of a new normal level for the QTL business going forward and if you could explain why that's the case and the permanence of this level of revenue?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure. So, Chris, As you will recall, in the March quarter, the market was down approximately 21%, because of the impact of COVID and June quarter was 20%. Our forecast, our planning assumption going into the September quarter was down 15% and really what happened is, we saw a rebound especially in emerging markets, we're following a couple quarters of lower demand because of COVID, the demand went up and we ended the quarter down approximately 5%. So that was kind of the key driver for our performance in the September quarter. And in addition, we saw a stronger OEM mix that helped QTL a bit as well. So that's kind of the data point for our results for the September quarter at $1.5 billion. Our forward guidance of $1.7 billion midpoint for QTL is really kind of just projecting that same market impact, the 5% market impact that we saw year-over-year in the September quarter projecting it forward into the December quarter, and then into the March quarter and that's the basis for the numbers we provided. As you think about kind of the full year forecast for it -- for QTL, using the September quarter number along with the December quarter and the March quarter guidance, that's a good way to project a year.
Chris Caso:
Got it. Thank you. A follow-up question is on the RF front-end business. And if you could provide some color now, I know that millimeter-wave is an important part of that business for you, it's something you've talked about a lot. Could you help us to quantify how much millimeter-wave has been contributing to the RF front-end business, sort of what's the content increase that you're anticipating for millimeter-wave? And then now that we've seen millimeter-wave kind of do what you said in terms of being a must-have on flagship handsets, what's the potential for that proliferating around the world to becoming a must-have in other geographies?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, Chris, I'll take the first part of the question and then Cristiano can follow up. Just from a breakdown of technologies across our RF front-end revenue base, we are obviously not providing that, but you should not really think of our revenue being driven by millimeter-wave, we have a broad portfolio of technologies, 4G, 5G sub-6 and 5G millimeter-wave and our design traction reflects the strength of our portfolio. So it's really across all those technologies.
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. So, this is Cristiano. So first I want to just build on what Akash had said, we're even starting to win some 4G content in RF front-end as well in especially some of the sub-6 frequency started to get converted into 5G, so we're excited about I think how broad of -- and diverse is RF front-end business is. Specific with the millimeter-wave, it does add a lot more content, it probably would drive a lot of higher on our average 1.5 multiplier if you remember. And we're happy about it is significant data points that continue to show the potential for growth. In addition, there have been a requirement for markets such as United States, Japan, DoCoMo launched millimeter-wave services back in September, Korea still tracking to launch service. And we have now 130 operators globally investing in the millimeter-wave. And especially as we see the price point devices, as you saw in the United States becoming very reasonable with millimeter-wave that opportunity for attach is going to be a significant tailwind for our business.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then maybe just to add a quick comment, I think for millimeter-wave really what has happened is, we outlined a vision a year ago of how the technology deployment will play out and really everything is happening consistent with what we had outlined and so we're very happy to see that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Moore:
Great. I think the question I get the most is just the sustainability of handset builds, obviously, it has been very robust. It seems like there is some investment to try to take share away from Huawei and yet. Huawei still has inventory still shipping. So can you just generally characterize the handset environment and the inventory environment that you're in heading into the strongest part of the year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi. This is Akash. So we are seeing some minor elevated demand across certain OEMs, given the uncertainty of the OEM mix, especially in China and how things play out. So that's already contemplated in our forecast. As we look forward -- and in our forward commentary. As well as we look forward, we expect some uncertainty over the next few months. But really when you step back from that, and just look at overall design win pipeline and customer traction, it's really very consistent with the comment Cristiano made earlier where our technologies and our portfolio are really set up to take benefit from it, whether it's Huawei, who -- if we're allowed to ship to them or if other OEMs pick up that share.
Joe Moore:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then are you guys constrained at all on foundry capacity, is there -- are there any supply constraints that we should be aware of?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Joe. This is Cristiano. We're very diversified from a supply standpoint, I think we're probably one of the few companies that have leading now the supply diversity. We are all seeing demand upside. We're driving a lot of our supply, and I will say, there probably, you're going to see some tightness of supply as we have this big [ph] demand, but we feel good about how we look about the year in 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. And sort of [ph] a follow up on Joe's question, just kind of curious as you look at the build you're seeing today and then kind of the visibility in models, I think people have looked at some of the stats from the China market, saying, it's already 60% 5G. Kind of just curious with these builds, the strong builds you're seeing now, do you have any perspective where we're at in that adoption curve of 5G already and then kind of just trying to parse it together, where you're not getting MSM guidance anymore, but I mean are we already pretty close to that kind of run rate for 5G on a quarterly basis?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Blayne. This is Cristiano. When you think about China market, we're very happy because the price points of 5G became very aggressive and we saw that even starting in the last quarter, and that's driving probably more than 50% of all the new activations and all of the new phone launches with 5G. We like that position as Akash outlined in the prior question, we're very well hedged regardless of who wins in the marketplace. And we expect the China accelerated transition of 5G with lower price points to have an impact and how we're going to see this unfolding in emerging markets, as China provide a lot of the handsets for emerging markets as well.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then also just to add that we are providing an additional data point on the 5G side on the total size of the market for 2021, we are forecasting a range of 450 million to 550 million devices, which really when you look at year-over-year basis that's a 150% growth. So extremely strong growth going into it. And as we exit -- exit the calendar year 2020, we were seeing that that velocity going into '21.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks. And then a follow up just really appreciate the segment detail. When you look at IoT you answered why it's liking [ph] up so much. I'd be curious to know a little bit more about the history of that segment, it looks like you kind of modeled it back to the details you gave, it's been running around $700 million a quarter. So I'm just trying to put in perspective the strength you're seeing here and how to think about it going forward obviously, everybody seeing a big work from home push, but as you move forward, does some of that roll-off or has this business been at higher levels prior, just any context will be great.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, if you look at the disclosure we have on our website, we are providing detail for fiscal '19 on an annual basis and '20 on a quarterly basis. And so, I think there is enough data there for you to kind of come up with some trends on the business. And then -- and then maybe I'll go back to our Analyst Day commentary last year, we outlined a growth and a vision forecast for the IoT segment, and so you could think about at the same way, where you'll be able to look at how the SAM [ph] grows and the parts of that SAM that we are interested in and how that grows and that be a good way of thinking about the long-term opportunity?
Cristiano Amon :
Blaine, this is Christian. If I could add some qualitative comments, as you pointed out, there is this enterprise transformation of the home, it's driving a lot of connectivity, you also have an accelerated digital transformation, but most importantly, you have 5G going to other industry. So, this business and what it is today, is probably a good proxy of a growth business for us as we realized this vision of 5G in other industries going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question and a follow-up and congrats on the strong results. The first one is, I think everybody appreciates the end market splits that you're going to have, but before the MSMs and the revenue per MSM disappear for good. It's great to see that you've gotten it back above $30 on the revenue per MSM side. I just wanted to dive into looking forward, does the 1.5x content framework continue or is that $30 largely capturing it and really I guess what I'm getting at is if you're going to have a 150% increase in your 5G units next year, is that going to be a tailwind on both the unit and the revenue per MSM side or more so one than the other.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, from a unit perspective, Ross, it's really kind of the 4G margin -- market transitioning over to 5G, right, so it's less of a unit growth story, it's really a transition between technologies. And then within 5G, the framework we still think apply. So, there is a benefit on the core chipset side and then there is the incremental RF opportunity on top of it.
Ross Seymore:
Great. And I guess for my follow-up, I want to switch over to the margin side of things. You talked Akash a little bit about the OpEx for the fourth quarter or the calendar fourth quarter than the calendar first quarter. You said it go up a little bit, now that you've hit or exceeded your targets, especially on the QCT side for EBT, any sort of idea of how we should think for fiscal '21 or calendar '21 about the general trends on the OpEx side of the equation?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, I mean, first of all, we are very happy to see -- as revenue has grown we're seeing the leverage -- operating margin leverage show up in our numbers, so happy to see that in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. As we look forward, I think you have data points for both of those quarters, first quarter and then we gave soft guidance for the following quarter, it's very reasonable to use those two data points to project forward for the OpEx for the year. The other thing I'd say is just as we look forward, as Steve outlined in his prepared remarks, there are lots of opportunities we have for -- areas for growth in the long term, all organic opportunities and so we are selectively investing in a few of those consistent with what we said at the Analyst Day.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, I wanted to dig a little bit into chipset gross margins. I know you don't like actually provide them, but I know last quarter you gave us a little bit of qualitative color on what to expect, gross margins in the current quarter in chips were supposed to come down a little because of mix, and I think they did. In December quarter, is it fair to say that your guidance contemplates gross margins at least flattish sequentially even with the slug of revenue coming in and the mix changing somewhat. Is that an accurate statement?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Stacy, from a gross margin perspective, I mean, there really isn't something that we want to highlight on that topic. I think what we -- what we have is very consistent trend and we feel like that's something that holds going forward.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. Thank you. And so my follow-up, I want to ask about the trajectory of the RF business. So obviously you had a bunch of RF this quarter, does all of that RF revenue ship together with the rest of the platform or does some of that RF revenue like have to ship before and go into modules. So I guess what I'm asking is, is some of the RF that you shipped in Q4 actually going into some of the chip platforms that you're booking revenue for in Q1? Or are they all coincident with each other?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So just broadly as you think about RF business, there is a combination of factors, right? There are times when we make the module ourselves and those modules would -- timing-wise would be aligned with the chipset. If we are shipping components that go into someone else's module, there would be a shift in timing related to it. But really, all those are really timing comments, the fundamental trajectory remains the same.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mitch Steves:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just have one just going back to kind of the QCT breakout here. So if we look at the long-term SAM, I mean it's kind of low double digits but then you're your guiding to significantly higher than that. And it looks like '21 is going to be a good year, so how do we think about just modeling correctly kind of the four segments we look out over, over the implied SAM targets. I mean, is there a bogey we should think about in terms of you guys being able to outgrow that number across the board? Just looking for any sort of detail there would be helpful?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. I think in terms of kind of longer-term modeling of each of the segments, we gave some disclosures at Analyst Day. We still think those are very relevant metrics to use to model our businesses. So when you think about RF front-end, we gave a disclosure on greater than 20% of $18 billion dollar SAM. On the auto side, we had given a pretty specific disclosure on our longer-term revenue target. And so that should be -- that should be instructive. And then, really IoT, it's really more about what's the -- the growth of the SAM addressable market for us, and then what's -- what are the components within that market that are growing faster than we'll be able to participate on.
Mitch Steves:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes. Thanks for the question. I wanted to start with the supply chain and I know that COVID has been ramping up again in certain parts of the world and some participants in the industry have talked about potential for supply chain disruption again. And I wonder if you guys could just talk a little bit about your thoughts on that, is your guidance for fiscal Q1 contemplating some disruption or do you believe that the production is most likely to just continue normally? And then I have a follow-up?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi Rod, it's Akash. We are -- our guidance for the quarter is really constrained by what we can supply and so that's really contemplated in our forecast.
Rod Hall:
Okay, great. Thanks, Akash. And then my follow-up was on, I wanted to come back to millimeter-wave in terms of your preference for doing business there. I know you guys have talked about an interest or a willingness any way to sell components, and we've seen some of the net effect [ph] a lot of the early millimeter-wave is it looks like it's that, someone else's module assembly process your components probably, but then you do also sell your own module. So I'm just curious, which of those two things you prefer. I mean is it -- I would think it's preferable to go for the component side of things and let someone us worry about the module but I don't know if that really is your preference or do you -- do you have a preference one way or another. Just wondering how you want to do that business going forward?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi Rod, this is Cristiano. Look, we're very happy about the traction we're having with millimeter-wave. I feel the technology in itself requires a module because you have to have the RF front-end and the transceiver working together side by side. We're flexible, we have been commercializing our silicon within modules as well as commercializing our own module. The important is the direction we having for customers in general is that when we provide a complete solution fully validated from a performance standpoint and from a scale standpoint, you save them a lot of R&D. So we'll continue to maintain the flexibility for our customers as they see value.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes, thank you for taking the question. I guess for my first question and thank you for the disclosure on that sub-segments, but curious, could you provide some help around how we should think about the PBT margins for each of those relative to the overall QCT business?
Akash Palkhiwala:
I think C.J. at this point, we're really talking about a portfolio of businesses within QCT. As I'm sure you appreciate and we've discussed this in the past, one of the core premises of how we are addressing some of the incremental opportunities and especially auto and IoT is leveraging technology from mobile, and so it's really kind of one set of technology and product pools that we're leveraging across. And so I think it's best to look at the total QCT segment on margins.
C.J. Muse:
Okay, that's helpful. And then as my follow-up. There's a question earlier and you talked about foundry supply constraints. And I guess curious what is the impact on the issues around SMIC, and I guess what kind of impact at least on the near-term side of things has that had on the pricing that you're getting from foundries, because I believe only TSMC has 28-nanometer capacity available. So we would love to hear your thoughts both from a near-term and medium-term perspective on sourcing supply from the leading-edge foundries?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Sure, C.J. So really from our foundry strategy is we're very diversified across a lot of different foundries. So we have close partnerships with all of them and typically went up from a pricing negotiation perspective, we are typically locked for a reasonable period of time. And so really, I'd say maybe no impact at this point, we are just operating as we would with our supplier partners.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thanks a lot. My first question, I wanted to see if we could -- if I could double click on the QCT mix. And I'm just wondering if you can give us either in terms of revenue or units maybe the split between 3G, 4G and 5G, because if you look at the China government data about two-thirds of the sell-through last month was 5G and about 50% year to date. But I'm sort of wondering on if you don't want to talk about units. Can you talk about QCT in total and maybe give us a sense of how much 5G is of QCT today?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Tim, probably the best way to think about this is to really look at our forecast for total handsets. We are providing a range for calendar 2020 at 200 million and then going into next year at a range of 450 million to 550 million. And so I think those are reasonable data points to think about mix between 4G and 5G for the market and then it applies to our business as you think about individual OEMs.
Timothy Arcuri:
Okay, okay. Thanks for that. And I guess, I also wanted to ask about the RF business. It's great that you actually breaking that out now. And I'm sort of wondering if you could help us maybe with what the attach rate looks like. Because if I just divide the 852 [ph] in September by the 162 million MSMs, I get about $5 per unit. I mean obviously that had a very straightforward way to look at it, because the attach rate is not 100% but maybe can you help us think about what the attach rate is right now for the RF business? Thanks a lot.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. As we think about the RF business, really there's tremendous complexity in that business, right, between which tier of device, t is, which OEM whether it's being designed for a specific geography or multiple geographies between sub-6 and millimeter-wave. The SAM addressable market per device changes quite a bit. And so we try to not think of it as an attach rate business rather we think of it as an available addressable market and we try to maximize our position within that.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. Just to thank you to the employees. I think this quarter probably more than any quarter I can think of really demonstrates the strength of not only the businesses and the products that we're working on, but also I would say the culture of the company and its ability to keep things on-track in a very difficult time. So, thank you very much for your hard work. It's great to see the recognition of that in the market and keep it going. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we’ll conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, July 29, 2020. The playback number for today’s call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13706353. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm’s, Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fiscal third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.86 per share was above the high end of guidance, driven by strong licensing revenue and solid performance in our chipset division. We recently signed a new long-term global patent license agreement with Huawei, including a cross license granting back rights to certain of Huawei’s patents. We also entered into an agreement settling amounts due under the prior license agreement. We are pleased to have successfully reached resolution with Huawei. As Akash will explain later, royalty revenue from Huawei begins in fiscal Q4 and is not included in our fiscal Q3 results. Alex and the QTL team have done an outstanding job in executing over 100 agreements covering 5G and building by a wide margin, the most extensive licensing program in mobile. This is a tribute to our track record of driving important and fundamental innovation. With the signing of the Huawei agreement, we are now entering a period in which we have multi-year license agreements with every major handset OEM. Our entire company has executed very well despite the ongoing impact of COVID-19, while maintaining the safety of our employees as our highest priority. We continue to advance our product and technology roadmaps, support our customers and meet a very complex set of R&D and supply chain requirements. And the current environment has not impeded the pace of our innovation. In the last four months of work-from-home, invention disclosures are up over 30%, with 5G related invention disclosures up even more. Turning to the handset market, fiscal Q3 was better than the expectations we shared with you last quarter. In China, just midway through the calendar year and despite the impact of COVID-19, 5G now represents the majority of domestic mobile phone shipments. According to the China Academy of Telecommunication Research, June domestic 5G smartphone shipments represented 63% of total smartphone shipments, more than double the penetration in the month of March. Given the strength of June 5G handset data in China along with flagship 5G device launches in the second half of the calendar year. Our calendar year 2020, 5G forecast of 175 million to 225 million handsets remains unchanged, with our bias now towards the upper end of that range. As Akash will explain shortly, we are anticipating the next inflection point in our 5G ramp to start in fiscal Q4, with strong year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings per share, leaving us well positioned for continued growth in fiscal year 2021. Turning to QCT, design win momentum remained strong. There are now over 660 designs announced or in development based on our broad portfolio of 5G solutions using Snapdragon 8 Series, 7 Series and 6 Series platforms, who are using our X55 modem, with a strong pipeline headed into next year. In the premium tier, we now have over 165 designs announced or in development from our Snapdragon 865 5G mobile platform. We recently announced our 6 Series Snapdragon 5G mobile platform, which has the potential to make 5G accessible to more than two billion smartphone users around the world. Our systems approach to 5G RF front-end has been extremely well received. Virtually all of our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front-end solutions, whether they support 5G in sub-6, millimeter wave or both. And as a consequence of our RF front-end strategy, we expect to emerge in fiscal 2021 as one of the largest global RF front-end vendors by revenue. We remain focused on executing on the significant growth opportunities that we have in place today in the handset space. As you would expect, we are also working in parallel to position Qualcomm for similar success as 5G moves beyond smartphones. We see a significant market transition occurring as the cloud converges with 5G and AI, positioning 5G as the next evolution of the internet. This new architecture at the edge plays directly to our strengths in low-power, high-performance computing and connectivity, where Qualcomm’s wireless innovation leadership can drive new opportunities for growth, as we have in 5G enabled smartphones. Qualcomm’s leadership in global standards bodies is an early indicator of how we are working with the mobile ecosystem to meet the high technical requirements to drive adoption of 5G to new industries. Just this month, 3GPP completed 5G New Radio Release 16, the second 5G standard that will greatly expand the reach of 5G to new services spectrum and deployments. It delivers key technologies spearheaded by Qualcomm for transforming industry, such as enhanced ultra reliable low latency, advanced power saving and high-precision positioning needed for mission-critical applications like industrial IoT. While Release 16 is now complete, our work driving 5G technology evolution to fully realize the potential of this latest release continues. In addition, we are already working with the mobile ecosystem on Release 17 projects and are researching advanced technologies for Release 18 and beyond. We are very excited about our 5G future and our ability to commercialize the breakthrough technologies that will drive differentiation for Qualcomm over many years. I would like to now turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We’re extremely pleased to report strong third fiscal quarter results, demonstrating the resilience of our business in a challenging economic environment. We delivered total revenues of $4.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.86, which was above the high end of our guidance range, primarily driven by stronger results in QTL. In the third quarter, we saw an approximately 20% year-over-year reduction in 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments due to the impact of COVID-19 relative to our prior planning assumption of a 30% reduction. In addition, we saw a stronger mix with higher shipments in China and developed regions offset by weakness in emerging regions. In QTL, we delivered revenues of $1 billion, and EBT margin of 62%, both above the high end of our guidance range due to higher units and stronger regional mix. Please note our third quarter QTL results do not include any revenues from Huawei settlement or global patent license agreement. In QCT, we delivered MSM shipments of 130 million units, revenues of $3.8 billion and EBT margin of 16%, which was at the high end of our guidance range. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging regions resulted in fewer, low tier MSM units, offset by improved gross margin as a result of favorable mix. QCT revenues and EBT increased 7% and 20% respectively on a year-over-year basis. This performance reflects 5G design traction, RF front-end growth and strength in certain adjacent platforms that benefited from the work-from-home environment. Our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses of $1.68 billion were slightly below our guidance. During the third quarter, we paid $733 million in dividends, refinanced $2 billion in debt, and temporarily suspended stock buybacks. I will now provide a financial overview of the resolution with Huawei. We expect to record approximately $1.8 billion of revenue in our fourth fiscal quarter for amounts due under the settlement agreement relating to the prior license period and the new license agreement for the first half of calendar 2020. This amount will be excluded from our non-GAAP results. Please note that this amount is consistent with the framework of our licensing program and incremental to the partial payments received from Huawei under the interim agreement in prior years. In addition, our fourth quarter non-GAAP financial guidance includes estimated QTL revenue from Huawei sales in the September quarter. With the completion of this agreement, we have now licensed all significant handset OEMs worldwide. Turning to the global 3G, 4G, 5G device forecast. Given the ongoing uncertainty around the timing of economic recovery, our fourth fiscal quarter forecast is based on a planning assumption of approximately 15% year-over-year reduction in handset shipments. This planning assumption reflects a gradual recovery in September quarter based on the regional trends we saw in the June quarter. Consistent with our prior expectations, our forecast for the first three quarters of 2020 implies a year-over-year reduction of approximately 10% to the calendar year, total device forecast. However, total units in the fourth quarter will depend on the speed of the economic recovery. Lastly, we are maintaining our forecast of 175 million to 225 million units for calendar 2020 5G devices. In the June quarter, we estimate that the sell-in of 5G devices increased to greater than 50 million units. This data point is a strong leading indicator of our confidence in the 5G handset forecast for the year and our bias towards the high end of this range. Turning to our fourth fiscal quarter financial guidance. We estimate fourth quarter GAAP revenues to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8.1 billion and GAAP EPS of $2.12 to $2.32, which includes the revenue related to the settlement with Huawei. We expect fourth quarter non-GAAP revenues of $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion and EPS of $1.05 to $1.25. This guidance includes an impact of greater than $0.25 due to the reduction in handset shipments due to COVID-19, including a partial impact from the delay of our 5G flagship phone launch. In QTL, we estimate fourth quarter revenues of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion and EBT margins of 67% to 71%. At the midpoint, this guidance implies year-over-year revenue growth of 12% driven by the addition of royalty revenues from Huawei, partially offset by our planning assumption of a 15% reduction in handset shipments. In QCT, we expect MSM shipments of 145 million to 165 million units, revenues of $4.3 billion to $4.9 billion, and EBT margins of 17% to 19%. These guidance midpoints imply year-over-year growth of 27% in revenue and 66% in EBT, reflecting the strong execution of our strategy in a challenging economic environment. As we have previously outlined, RF front-end is one of the key drivers of our revenue growth. Our fourth quarter forecast includes revenues of approximately $750 million for 4G, 5G sub-6 and 5G millimeter wave content. We anticipate fourth quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up approximately 5% sequentially, reflecting normal seasonality in 5G investments. In closing, I want to thank our employees, customers and suppliers for their commitment and partnership during these extraordinary circumstances. Looking forward, we are excited to have a strong foundation of growth across our product and licensing businesses. Thank you. And I’ll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great, thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the strong results in a tough environment and the Huawei settlement. My question is just helping us understand your revenue per MSM trends going forward. You highlighted in 2021, you expect to be the revenue leader in RF, obviously, that could take up the revenue per MSM and then you should have a much greater mix of 5G phones over time. So, as we look out in the future quarters, how should we think about the pluses and minuses on a revenue per MSM calculation? Thank you very much.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi Mike, this is Akash. If you look at our trend over the last couple of quarters, on a revenue per MSM perspective, we were just over $31 in the second fiscal quarter. And then we reported a little over $28 in the June quarter and we’re guiding a similar number over $29 in the upcoming September quarter. The premise behind the growth in the revenue per MSM is still consistent with what we had said before, which is as we transition from 4G to 5G, we expect our revenue opportunity to grow by 1.5 times. And so as we look forward, we still think that’s kind of a reasonable way of thinking about the trend on revenue per MSM long-term. And I think these quarters where we have delivered the results with higher numbers kind of bear out the math behind it.
Mike Walkley:
Right. And maybe just a quick follow-up, is there any seasonality to those type numbers based on mix of premier smartphones that we should think about in modeling kind of those trend lines?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, sure. There will be a little bit of a seasonality based on when our premium tier chipset launches and which is typically we go heavy on volume on the premium tier in the March quarter. So there will always be some seasonality, but I think overall the trend that the last few quarters suggest is a reasonable way of thinking about it.
Cristiano Amon:
Hey, Mike, this is Cristiano. I just want to add one thing maybe to help you understand it. We may have seen over the short period of time as we look at where the market is given the pandemic, we feel good about 5G units. But when you think about trends, thinking about the 1.5 metric, the more the 5G penetrates into the handset base, I think more that helps our trend of increasing the revenue per MSM. And I think we still have a lot of 4G units out there. We like that accelerated transition to 5G.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess just maybe first off if I could try and understand the MSM unit guidance here and the improvement. It would help if you can kind of unpack it for me a bit in terms of what’s the normal kind of market recovery in terms of the sequential improvement that you’re thinking of? And then what’s – I know you mentioned the delay in the product launch, but what are you assuming in terms of the product launch in that sequential improvement that you have of roughly kind of 15 million at the low end and 35 million at the high end. So how much of that is a market recovery and how much of that is the product launch?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Samik, this is Akash. So the midpoint that we’re guiding is 155 million units relative to June quarter actuals of 130 million. So, I’ll try to address it around the midpoint. There are really two drivers for the increase. The first one is, we saw some weakness in the low-tier units in the June quarter because of the impact of COVID on emerging markets. So, we are seeing that come back in as we look at the forward demand that we’re seeing from our customers, so that drives growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis. And then second, we talked about partial impact from a delay of our 5G flagship phone launch. If you think about a large flagship phone launch, typically for a QCT perspective, our customers end up buying chipsets that facilitate the launch in the couple of months before the launch. So what we’re really seeing here is because of the delay, a portion of those purchases are happening in the September quarter and they’re factored into our guidance and another portion would get pushed out to the December quarter. So it’s a combination of those things. And so going back to answering your direct question, the increase from 130 million to 155 million is really two drivers, increase in units especially at a low-tier and then benefit from the new launch.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay, got it. And then if I can just follow-up on the restrictions in place here to Huawei right now, is there an impact on the MSM unit guidance from that? And then with the licensing agreement that you now have, does this potentially open up an opportunity to even kind of ramp up your chip shipments to them in the future if in the absence of high silicon being able to kind of provide them the chipsets that are required for their 5G handsets?
Akash Palkhiwala:
So, Samik, I’ll address the first part of the question. At this point, we really don’t have any material business with Huawei. So, when you think about our MSM unit guidance, there really isn’t Huawei volume around it, it’s really the other OEMs that we would be shipping to.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes, this is Steve. On the second – the second part of the question, I think the way to think about it is, we’re working hard to figure out how to sell to every OEM including Huawei, but really nothing to report as of yet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes, thank you. First question is on QTL and there’s a lot of moving parts as we go into September with Huawei coming in the global handset decline, excuse me, and the timing of the flagship. In the past, you’ve given us some metrics about what the normalized QTL revenue run rate would be. Is that something you could provide us now if I normalize for all of those exceptional events that are happening now, once I put Huawei in? And maybe you can give us some indication because of those changes this quarter, how much Huawei contributes to QTL in the September quarter?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Chris. This is Akash. Let me try to give you a few data points that I think will help with your triangulation. Historically, as we’ve guided our revenue range for QTL, we’ve said for the first three calendar quarters, a number of $1.1 billion is a reasonable range and then for the December quarter somewhere in the $1.4 billion range. That’s kind of our run rate before two key factors. First factor is really the impact of COVID on our guidance. So in the June quarter, we came in a little over $1 billion in revenue in QTL, with a market that was 20% lower on the handset side from a year-over-year perspective. So 20% reduction year-over-year. And we came in a little over $1 billion against a normalized run rate of $1.1 billion. When you look forward what we’re guiding is a midpoint of $1.3 billion and really there are two factors, right, Huawei coming in and increasing that number and a little bit of a decline based on a 15% market weakness that we’re assuming. So, I think between those numbers, you should be able to triangulate what a normalized run rate is. The key thing for us is just not having insight into COVID going forward and how the recovery happens. So for now we’re guiding the September quarter, but as we proceed, we’ll look to give guidance into the normalized run rate.
Chris Caso:
Well, that’s very helpful. Thank you. As a follow-up to that, with regard to QTL margins, you’ve given guidance for this quarter also. So what should we expect going forward on that? I’m assuming that the new Huawei revenue was all incremental, there’s no cost associated with that. So is this a reasonable margin run rate at least for the first three quarters of the year, I suppose it would go higher as you went to the seasonally stronger December quarter.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Chris, you’re correct, on the revenue really falling down to the bottom line from a Huawei perspective, so that’s an accurate assumption. I think at the Analyst Day last year, we provided our view on kind of longer-term sustainable margins for QTL, where we said a midpoint of 70% and with Huawei it would be slightly higher than that. So, I don’t believe there is any change to that point of view. I think we still think those are good reasonable numbers to use to model our business going forward.
Chris Caso:
Got it. Very helpful, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys, thank you so much. So, let me ask the question and congrats on the Huawei settlement. Akash, you mentioned earlier in the call about the gross margin within QCT performing well. Can you go in a little bit deeper into that and really what I want to get into is, it doesn’t seem like there is a great correlation between the revenue per MSM and the gross margin in the QCT side of things. And given that that revenue per MSM line could be moving all over the place in the next couple of quarters, given some of these flagship launches, I want to understand the relationship between those two dynamics better.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, Ross. So let me – let me kind of maybe quickly talk through what happened in the June quarter. What we saw was versus our guidance of mid-point of 135 million units for the MSM, we saw some weakness at the low-tier. And what I referred to in my script was because of the fewer low-tier units that was driven by COVID impact on emerging markets, we saw higher revenue per MSM and a higher gross margin as a result of it. So, they both moved in concert at the same time and in same direction. As we look forward to the September quarter, what we are implying in terms of guidance for our gross margin is more in line with what we had guided for the June quarter, because we expect the lower-end units to come back into our mix and really from a margin perspective, it’s very consistent with what we’ve outlined, pretty strong margin profile going forward.
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. And Ross, I think it’s – this is Cristiano, consistent with, I think, the conversation we had before about revenue per MSM, as some of those low 4G units starts to get replaced by 5G units and we go into the future quarters, continue to see accelerated 5G penetration, that’s going to be also a good driver for gross margin improvement in QCT.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you very much, guys and congrats on the Huawei deal from myself as well. A couple of questions, Akash. The first one is on opEx. You talked about it being up with 5G investments and other things. Maybe, you could give us a little bit of context as to whether the September quarter number is a realistic run rate going forward as I know opEx had – cost controls have been top of mind given COVID and given some of the QTL things that have happened in the last few years, so that’s one. And then the second one is on the settlement – the back payments from the settlement, there is a big sort of cash payment coming in to you guys from Huawei, any thoughts of use of that cash. Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Matt. So, on your first question, really what we’re guiding is a 5% increase in OpEx quarter-over-quarter. If you look at our historical trend, what we’ve seen between these two quarters, as an example last year, we saw an increase of 4% when you adjust the June quarter for the variable compensation related to the Apple deal. So, what we’re guiding is really consistent with our historical trend. There is a little bit of an increase and extra 1% increase just because of timing of 5G investments. When you pull back and kind of look at the whole year, we will end up total opEx of $6.8 billion, very consistent with what we told you at the Analyst Day and our forecast for the year. So, we really think of opEx as consistent with our previous commitments and it’s super important for us to continue to manage opEx well and deliver operating leverage as we grow revenues. And then on the second question, on the $1.8 billion, what we have is – Huawei is going to pay us $1.8 billion for historical periods and it’s a combination of two things; really, it’s the settlement agreement, which goes through the end of 2019 and add to it the first six months of 2020 through June. The combined total of that is $1.8 billion. And so that some – that’s an amount that they’re going to pay over a one-year period with the first payment due in the September quarter.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up for Cristiano or I guess for Steve as well. You guys talked about being the view of 2020 5G units now being maybe, at the upper end of the range. And if you put that against a major global launch that might be pushed slightly. Was all of that maybe, incremental confidence in upside in 5G units in China or are there other markets that we should be thinking about that are now ramping 5G units with some – with some visibility? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Matt. this is Cristiano. Well, look, there is an overall I think confidence in 5G. If you look at the comment made by Akash in the quarter, I think we saw a better mix than we originally expected, which is offsetting weakness in the emerging markets and mostly 4G low-tier units. What we saw is better units on developed markets, which is just a result of 5G. Traction 5G continues to be high. We now have over 80 commercial networks in 35 countries. We have a large number of operators now 380, 120 of which are working on millimeter wave and our design to traction jumped to 660 designs now on 5G. So, 5G momentum has not slowed down and it’s giving us confidence on the estimate we made for the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Great, thank you. It’s actually a follow-up on the previous answer. When you look at the U.S. and Europe and other places, can you give us a sense of how much of the launches are planned to be with millimeter wave? And then when it – do you have an estimate of your market share within millimeter wave, kind of, if you look at the global – at the globe, how much do you think you’re capturing of this market initially? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
All right, Tal. this is Cristiano. Thanks for the question. So, let me just start talking about millimeter wave, I know that’s a big component of the question. So, it’s a – traction of millimeter wave technology is moving kind of as we expected. I think the current scorecard I can give it to you, United States continue to ramp, Japan recently launched, we still forecast Korea to launch within the year. Europe and Russia are targeting commercial launches before the end of the year with millimeter wave. And then spectrum auctions had occurred in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Finland for commercialization in 2021. I think worth noting is there is still expectation that China will have also millimeter wave by 2021. There is a total of 120 operators. So, it’s really – continue to gain traction. We don’t disclose specific share, but we do have significant technology leadership in millimeter wave and have been showing into some of the expansion of our designs. And I think specifically, within the United States, which is the largest millimeter wave market, we have now for example Verizon with 35 cities now live with ultra wideband. AT&T continued to expand, as well as T-Mobile and remains a requirement for all of the flagship devices across the three operators.
Tal Liani:
Got it. So that means all devices in the U.S. will have millimeter wave, all devices that are being launched in the U.S. will have millimeter wave to support it?
Cristiano Amon:
No. you have a combination of millimeter wave in sub-6 and I think as you get some of the reform spectrum with DSS, you’re going to have the combination of both. Millimeter wave today is a requirement for all flagship devices and we expect that technology to penetrate down the lower tiers as well over time.
Tal Liani:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. thanks for taking my questions. For the first one, I wanted to see if you could give us some feeling for how that $1.8 billion splits up. I know you gave a little bit of color on kind of 2019 and before and then the first half of 2020. But do we think about that $1.8 billion broadly applying to like every phone over that period that Huawei didn’t pay you for, I mean since Q3 2017 on top of the $450 million that they paid you already. And I guess for my follow-up, you’ve talked about revenue per MSM obviously up 50%. If I look where that revenue per MSM number ran especially when you add Apple in the mix back in the day, or it was about $20, so 1.5 on that would be $30, is that kind of like the new sort of normal ones everything kind of gets into play, that’s where we should be thinking about revenue per MSM?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Stacy, it’s Akash. Yes. So, on the $1.8 billion that there – again, there are two components to that – to that amount. One is the settlement of our previous agreement and it really captures the period since the entire dispute period that we had with them. And second component is the first six months of calendar 2020. So that total adds up to the $1.8 billion. It is additive to the two previous shorter-term agreements that we had with them. The total amount of those agreements was approximately $1.2 billion. So, it’s really $1.2 million and $1.8 million as a total additive number for the historical. And then going forward, we’ll – you’ll see it in our forecast for the September quarter. And really, as I said in my prepared remarks, we – these terms are very consistent with the overall framework of our licensing program. So, it’s what you would expect given other OEMs and overall licensing program terms. And then revenue per MSM, I think your math is a reasonable way of thinking about it, it’s really the 1.5 times, which is what you are using is the framework we use to think about it as well. The one thing I would maybe, caveat is your calculation assumes a 100% 5G. So obviously, it’s going to take some time to get there and so there will be a curve into it.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Ashwin Gupta:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Ashwin on behalf of Rod. Akash maybe, this is for you. You mentioned about 5G flagship phone delay and its impact on your QCT, but I was wondering if you could help us understand how you thought about it, it’s backed on QTL. And in the past, like when Samsung got delayed, it had an impact not just on Samsung, but overall handset market. So, just wondering if you could give us some color there. And sort of related – well, not exactly related, but my second question is on the June quarter. Units were better and – QTL units were better and you self-tied that to the improvement in China, but I was wondering if you could talk about trends outside China and where you potentially saw some strength in the overall market?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, I’ll maybe start with your second question. In the June quarter, what we saw is strength across China and developed markets. So, it was kind of broad-based across the developed market landscape in addition to China. China, obviously, as I’m sure you’re aware, extremely strong numbers. And what it was offset by weakness in certain emerging markets. So that’s kind of the trade-off – trade-off that we saw between the various markets. On your first question on 5G flagship phone launch delay and how that impacts QTL, the specific scenario that we are talking about the launch is typically pretty late in the quarter. So, it’s a much smaller factor for QTL within the September quarter guidance. And we think of it as captured in our total market weakness guidance as a part of COVID. But again, I think it’s a much bigger factor for QCT than it is for QTL, because the chipset purchases typically happen in large quantities in advance of a launch.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Pradeep Ramani:
Hi. This is Pradeep Ramani standing in for Tim. I guess my first question was around your – the QCT adjacencies, autos, IoT and so on. Did they do better than last quarter and are they sort of approaching now roughly $1 billion in the quarterly run rate. Can you just provide some color on that? And then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So overall, the way our adjacencies have been performing, we’ve been pretty happy with it actually. There are certain markets that we are in that definitely benefit from COVID and the work-from-home environment. We have the mobile broadband market, the 5G and 4G CPE and Dongles market, all of those have done extremely well. WiFi, we’re a very large player in WiFi and clearly with demand for improved connectivity within the home as people work-from-home. That has been a pretty strong spot for us as well. And then overall, IoT is also continuing to see strong traction. So, when you look at all those markets, which make up kind of the broader IoT category for us, a lot of strength across the board. Auto obviously, got impacted as a part of just what the industry is going through. But really within auto, a lot of our products are forward leaning, which is focusing on new launches and the demand for connectivity and infotainment really hasn’t changed fundamentally. So, while we are seeing an impact, it’s probably a smaller impact than a lot of other peers are seeing in the industry as well. So, those – that’s kind of the landscape of our adjacencies.
Pradeep Ramani:
Okay. And as my follow-up, when we think about your 5G opportunity, especially on the RF front, are you sort of gaining share, is your share gain largely driven by millimeter wave or – or are you sort of gaining share across the board. And can you maybe sort of speak to just your broad 5G share versus 4G share, I mean beyond just the 50% increase in ASP?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. This is Cristiano Amon. Yes, we – on the RF front-end especially as this is a growth market for us as a new entrant. We are seeing share gains and we have been very clear, our strategy to really scale in RF front-end. We’ll be using 5G as an entry point. And as we continue to gain traction for 5G, we’re getting designs across sub-6, across millimeter wave and started to get some traction within 4G RF front-end content as well. And we expect that to continue to be a positive trend of attached to our baseband, because of our modem-to-antenna differentiation at the system level.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And this is Akash, just to add a couple of quick points. As I said in my prepared remarks for the September quarter, we are expecting RF front-end revenue of approximately $750 million. So very happy about getting to that milestone. And really as we outlined previously, our target is to grow to approximately 20% share of the RF front-end market. And so between that data point and really, the forward traction that Cristiano talked about, we feel very comfortable in being able to hit that target.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes, thanks very much. Two questions. Maybe, just first on Huawei, the settlement. Can you talk about how much of the $1.8 billion is going to be cashed in the September quarter? And then if I look at the licensing with Huawei before the dispute, I think with the SAP licensee, maybe you can confirm that. And I’m just wondering with the settlement, are they still a SAP licensee or are they taking a full platform license? And what sort of licensing PD is the agreement going to cover? And then second question maybe for Cristiano, on automotive. I think it was a year ago when you last spoke about your backlog at about $5.5 billion. Can you give us an update on the backlog for QCT and how we should think about the ramp up here with 5G? And what’s the content per car is QCT now able to address? And maybe also for QTL, how do we think about automotive; clearly, there’s going to be a big push for V2X and 5G is going to be a big licensing opportunity for Qualcomm, we haven’t seen any license deals from automakers on 5G specifically. So, how should we think about that going forward? Thank you.
Alex Rogers:
This is Alex. In terms of the Huawei deal, obviously the terms are confidential. And Akash has already talked about the financials to the extent that we can. As we’ve mentioned in the disclosures, we have and agreed-upon payment schedule with respect to amounts that relate to the prior license period. This is a long-term deal and a broad agreement with the license back to certain Huawei patents. And so we’re very happy with the deal. Your question on automotive, we’ve actually had quite a longstanding automotive licensing business in the 3G, 4G space for a decade or so. And so we’re transitioning into licensing for 5G, but essentially, we’ve been licensing in automotive for quite some time. And so that’s also reflected in our revenue.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. So Brett, this is Cristiano. Let me answer your question on automotive business. So, why we’re not providing an update right now on the backlog for the design wins, I will talk about some of those trends. I think we continue to see that increasing for us, especially as the automotive industry, it’s impacted by the current pandemic. I think more and more we’re starting to see even higher interest in moving the programs of bringing more electronics and a digital cockpit transformation within the car. So, we continue to gain traction, continue to get incremental design awards and we’re very happy about how that automotive business is growing for us. So, within regards to the content, we have been now really focused on the Telematics unit for the connected car, the digital cockpit transformation that includes content for the infotainment, the rear seat entertainment, dashboard and smart mirrors and connectivity across our WiFi and Bluetooth. We’re just in the beginning of ECU for ADAS, but most of the silicon content is really within the digital cockpit transformation.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And Brett on your question on the design win pipeline, we’re not providing an update at this point. But the last number we’ve disclosed is greater than $7 billion design win pipeline.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with SMBC Nikko Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Srini Pajjuri:
Thank you. I have a couple of questions, first on the ASP. Obviously, nice improvement last few quarters. I’m just curious; Akash, as we go into the next couple of quarters, obviously, your modem mix will increase. I’m just trying to understand how that might impact your ASPs as well as margins? And then I have a follow-up.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So, I mean at this point, we’re not really kind of guiding specific ASPs and margins through fund specific product. So, I think it’s probably best to go back to the broader framework and broader discussion we had on the ASP trend. I think that still holds true even with your question. And then – and I think margin trends also the same applies. So, I think it’s rather than talk about a specific socket at the broader – broader trend, it’s still accurate and that’s probably, the best way of thinking about it.
Srini Pajjuri:
Okay, fair enough. And then maybe, for Cristiano, just trying to get a better handle on the competitive landscape, Cristiano. So obviously, with the situation with high silicon, I’m guessing, you have one less competitor going forward. Just curious, if you could look – if you could kind of talk about the modem competition between you and MediaTek and others, kind of compare that and contrast with at this stage in 4G cycle, what are some of the similarities and differences you’re seeing and what do you expect going forward. And then that also relates to my margin question longer-term and this is a business you’re running it like close to $5 billion run rate. And I’m not aware of any other semi company at this scale running at below 20% margin. So, I’m just trying to understand what the potential margin – longer-term margin potential for this business is? And how the competitive landscape is shaping up in 5G? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. This is Cristiano, thank you for your question. All right, let me just start with the competitive landscape. We always said in the smartphone mobile space a lot of competition, it’s been probably one of the most competitive segments within semi. And we feel very good right now especially, given the complexity on 5G, given the opportunity for us to move faster to different releases of this technology as it go beyond smartphones into other industrial use cases and the ability to have RF front-end differentiation and I think it’s showing now when we think about our design traction. We started being first-to-market with 5G. Of our 660 designs right now, 570 of those designs are based on our second-generation. And then our third generation, I think [indiscernible] product we kind of indicated over 165 designs. So, we’re seeing our leadership propagate from one design to the other including with the attach of RF front end. So, we’re very happy about that. We expect that more as many of our customers especially in China, companies like Vivo, Oppo and Xiaomi continue to grow outside China; I think more demand for global solution like Qualcomm, will increase our differentiation abilities and that’s also true as 5G goes to other industry. So, we feel much better about the differentiation of our 5G solution, compared to 4G. And as far as margins, I think we have been consistent. 5G provides significant growth for us in expansion of earnings and we are approaching our long-term operating margin target for QCT and we’re on track to get that.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. just thank you for the – to the employees for their hard work and obviously, there has been unusual circumstances. And so I appreciate very much the hard work that has been happening. It’s great to see the strategy we laid out result in such a positive traction for the business. Thank you to all of them, who worked on the Huawei deal, it’s great to get that behind us and look forward to giving an update in a quarter. Thank you, everybody.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 29, 2020. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13700396. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's, Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. This sudden and dramatic change in how we are living today has impacted nearly every citizen on the planet. On behalf of the 37,000 people in the Qualcomm family, I would like to extend our best wishes around the world, as we collectively manage through this unprecedented time. The global stay-at-home orders highlight the critical role that broadband has played in facilitating remote workforce, distance learning, entertainment, telemedicine, communications and many other things. With billions of people around the world using Qualcomm technology, our mission to invent and commercialize breakthrough wireless technologies like 5G has been reinforced and amplified. Over the last three months I have seen countless examples of our resilient and strong culture, working together to solve the daily challenges we face. Our response to the pandemic has been evident in the exceptional execution of our team on all fronts. In Q2, we transitioned to a totally different working environment with the safety of our employees as our highest priority. As a result of the many operational changes we have made over the last several years, we were able to respond quickly when the work-from-home orders began in mid-March with minimal disruption to our operations. Importantly, we were able to limit our on-site essential workforce to a very small number and remain on schedule with our product commitments. From an engineering and operations perspective we have maintained very high levels of productivity. We continue to advance the 5G road map and support customers while meeting a very complex set of R&D and supply chain requirements. We have also implemented remote access to labs, transition to cloud-based collaboration and enabled remote device testing without the need for physical access. We were also able to mitigate the COVID-19 impact to our global supply chain. Despite the challenging environment, where in Q2, we estimate the overall handset market was down approximately 21%, our Q2 non-GAAP earnings of $0.88 per share was at the midpoint of our guidance range we gave in early February in the early stages of the pandemic. Our QCT growth drivers of 5G design wins along with higher share of dollar content are very much intact as you can see in our revenue per MSM and as virtually all our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front end solutions. In our licensing business, we have now signed more than 85 5G license agreements, up from 80 license agreements last quarter. As expected, we recently entered into new long-term global patent license agreements with two leading Chinese handset suppliers OPPO and Vivo to cover 5G multi-mode mobile devices. Turning to the handset market. Fiscal Q2 China demand saw a sharp decrease coinciding with COVID-19 restrictions followed by month-over-month growth as restrictions subsided. This provides a basis to model rest of world handset demand trends. As I mentioned earlier, the overall handset market was down approximately 21% in the March quarter, principally from the China impact. In the June quarter, we estimate the overall handset market to be down approximately 30%, driven by the impact of shutdowns in the rest of the world while benefiting from the rebound we are seeing in China. Total demand will depend on the speed of the economic recovery. However, we see no change in our calendar year 2020 5G smartphone forecast. As we look to the second half of calendar 2020, while there are a few regions with minor delays in 5G network deployments. Overall, 5G is progressing as planned and we continue to be well positioned to drive the rapid adoption of 5G globally. In closing, Qualcomm is in a strong position and on track with our industry-leading product road map. We continue to add people in key areas and we are executing well with a strong balance sheet. I would like to turn the call over to Akash, where he will provide more detail in his prepared remarks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon everyone. Prior to addressing our second fiscal quarter results I want to echo Steve's thoughts and thank our employees' customers and suppliers for their commitment and partnership during these extraordinary circumstances. Our second fiscal quarter results demonstrated strong performance in both QCT and QTL despite the challenging economic environment. We delivered total revenues of $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.88, which was at the midpoint of the guidance range we provided in February. QTL delivered revenues of $1.1 billion and EBT margin of 63%, both consistent with the midpoint of our guidance. We have now entered into new long-term global patent license agreements with OPPO and Vivo. Our ability to finalize these 5G multimode agreements in a challenging environment reiterates the strength of our IP portfolio and the relationship with these customers. In the second fiscal quarter, due to the spread of COVID-19, we saw a reduction in 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments of approximately 21% compared to our prior expectations and on a year-over-year basis. This decline was based on two factors. First, pronounced weakness in China in late January and February, followed by a substantial recovery exiting the quarter. And second a decline in demand in many other regions globally starting in March. This negative impact on QTL was partially offset by a benefit related to updates to previous royalty estimates and favorable mix. In QCT, we delivered revenues of $4.1 billion, MSM shipments of 129 million units and EBT margin of 16%, which was at the midpoint of our guidance. QCT revenues and EBT increased by 13% and 39% sequentially. This reflects the benefit of the first wave of 5G flagship launches, increased content from our RF front end chipset solutions and improved gross margins. In addition, we saw strength in our IoT and networking products due to increased demand for connectivity in this work-from-home environment. Consistent with our expectations, our results included a greater than 50% increase in RF front end revenues on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis. Our total non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses of $1.7 billion was below the low end of our guidance range including savings in marketing and travel expenses. With that, I'd like to turn to Global 3G, 4G, 5G device forecast. Given the continued uncertainty around the timing and the pace of the resolution of COVID-19, our third fiscal quarter forecast is based on a planning assumption of approximately 30% reduction in handset shipments relative to our prior expectations. This planning assumption is based on two drivers. First, China sales for the quarter gradually improves from the exit rate of the March quarter; and second, other regions see a recovery starting in June, which is modeled based on the trends we are seeing in China. Our forecast for the first half of 2020 implies a reduction of approximately 10% to the calendar 2020 total device forecast. However, total devices in the second half of 2020 will depend on the speed of the economic recovery. Turning to 5G device forecast. Launches across all regions remain on track. While we expect some minor changes to the launch timing and sell-through of certain devices, our calendar 2020 estimates remain unchanged at 175 million to 225 million units. Now, let me walk you through our third fiscal quarter financial guidance. We currently estimate revenues of $4.4 billion to $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.60 to $0.80. This guidance includes a greater than $0.30 adverse impact attributable to the reduction in handset shipments due to COVID-19. Given the uncertainty around the time and the scale of the economic recovery, we are providing a wider-than-normal EPS range for the quarter. In QTL, we estimate third fiscal quarter revenues of $750 million to $950 million and EBT margin of 50% to 56%. This guidance reflects a normalized run rate of $1 billion to $1.2 billion adjusted for the impact of lower handset shipments due to COVID-19. As a reminder, our third fiscal quarter forecast for QTL does not include revenues from Huawei. In QCT, we estimate revenues of $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion, MSM shipments of 125 million to 145 million units and EBT margins of 14% to 16%. Our guidance reflects the latest demand signals from our customers as they contemplate the global impact on device sales and reconcile their supply chains to the lower sell-through. We expect revenue per MSM to decrease sequentially, reflecting the normal seasonal mix shift, following the 5G flagship handset launches in our second fiscal quarter. We anticipate third fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be approximately flat on a sequential basis. We returned approximately $2.3 billion to stockholders during the second fiscal quarter, including $705 million in dividends and $1.6 billion in stock repurchases. Additionally, we announced a 5% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.65 per share. Given the current economic landscape, we have performed scenario planning with a focus on liquidity and we will continue to evaluate our cash flow and capital policy as the situation evolves. In these challenging times, we are glad to have a strong balance sheet, liquidity position and debt rating. Looking forward, our top priority is the health and safety of our employees, and the communities in which we operate. Our business strategy remains unchanged. We remain confident in the long-term growth opportunities, including 5G adoption, RF front-end content capture, and the expansion of our technologies and adjacent platforms. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord. Please proceed.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thank you and congratulations on the strong results in a tough environment. Question's more just big picture. Back in February, before COVID-19 was seen as expanding more around the globe management indicated they expected two inflection points based on timing of 5G launches. Just given your ongoing discussions with customers, do you still see a second inflection point for 5G later this year? Or is it more pushed maybe exiting the year and into calendar 2021? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mike, its Steve and thank you. The – in terms of overall timing of handset launches, I would say in general, we're seeing people keep the same slots that they've talked about, been a lot of intensity to maintain those schedules. My guess is you'll see things move around a little bit, because of just people dealing with the environment they're dealing with. But in general, I don't think you're going to see big changes in that. Certainly, for us to reiterate our 5G unit call for the year. I think hopefully that helps you get a sense for how we feel about the second inflection point.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Thanks, Steve. Just for my follow-on question then. With your Q2 guidance certainly appears based on your 30% cut on the macro that you're gaining share in terms of MSM shipments strong in terms of that base. Are you seeing maybe what the strength of your portfolio and execution opportunity to gain share as the year plays out? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yeah. I think there's a couple of things. I think share picture is pretty good. Assuming – if you use the market assumption that we have my guess is you'll probably come to – you'll probably be surprised on the upside in terms of, how we look in terms of the financials. One key component, I think gross margins continues to be a good story and would be sequentially as well for us. So I think in general with the exception of a big dip in the market, we still like those factors that we're looking at.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with you question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi, good morning – good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So it's good to see you reiterating the 5G volume outlook. Just wondering, with the weaker macro that everyone's expecting are you – what are you seeing in terms of pricing for handsets from the OEMs themselves particularly in China as that market is recovering. If you focus on 5G handsets are you seeing them become more aggressive in terms of pricing? And what implications can that have on the supply chain?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Samik its Akash. Yeah, it's clearly true. The OEMs are being very aggressive. We had a set of launches planned before COVID and the OEMs were able to execute on all those launches in this environment. And if you look at some key metrics that came out of China in the month of March 30% of the devices that were sold into the channel were 5G devices. So that's really much stronger than even we had expected. And so we're seeing tremendous traction across tiers, across OEMs and looking forward to it.
Cristiano Amon:
Samik, this is Cristiano. I just want to – also there's another data point, which is worth reiterating. 71% of all models launched in China is 5G. That shows that the market is really preparing for 5G broad penetration across all tiers.
Samik Chatterjee:
Got it. And if I can just follow-up on the MSM shipment outlook that you have, which is roughly flat quarter-on-quarter, just wanted to understand that would generally imply that you're seeing order trends remain fairly stable start to improve as you exit – enter into 2Q. So just wanted to understand, if that's fair just given that even with the kind of drop-off in volumes in terms of sell-through you're kind of guiding to flat quarter-on-quarter shipment volumes?
Akash Palkhiwala:
That's right. We – there's a little bit of a seasonality. We typically see a slight bump between the quarters. So we're seeing that as well. But even in this environment, we continue to see the strong order pipeline is very good for us too.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. I guess, the first question is about, how your view has changed versus 90 days ago. You mentioned in your prepared remarks, the 30% reduction. Could you walk us through that bit of about how you got to that assumption? It sounds like there's a different assumption between China and the rest of the world. And as we go into the second half, do you -- are you -- to the extent you have forecast right now expecting some improvement on that as economies start to open up?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Chris, it's Akash. So the way we looked at the third fiscal quarter for us is we kind of focused on the -- what we saw in the second fiscal quarter, which was we saw weakness in China earlier in the quarter really starting from late January all the way through February, but a strong recovery exiting the quarter. And then outside China, we saw weakness exiting the quarter. And so we use that as the starting point. And our framework for how to model the June quarter was to use the exit rates and apply the China recovery model to the rest of the world. So as you think about the June quarter the 30% decline that we're expecting in handsets it's a combination of China being not as weak given that they've already gone through a substantial recovery and then the rest of the world seeing more weakness. As you look beyond the third fiscal quarter, it's really kind of -- it's uncertain at this point as to how and when the recovery happens, but if you look at the 5G number, which is a leading indicator for our business feel very comfortable with the full year guidance. And so we are reiterating the guidance of 175 to 225 and 225 million units for the calendar year.
Chris Caso:
Okay. Understood. Second question is on revenue per MSM. And it seemed like that was consistent with what you said previously that seasonally the mix comes down as you go into the June quarter. What about as you go into the second half of the year? You've got some new flagship ramps as you go to the second half of the year and I'd imagine that 5G penetrates some new price points there. What do you expect the trend to be in revenue for MSM as you go to the second half of the calendar year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So fundamentally nothing has changed versus the guidance we have previously given you. As we go from 4G to 5G, we feel like there's an opportunity for us on the core chipset ASP side, which you've now seen the evidence of. And then on top of that also on the RF front end attach, which adds to the ASP. In addition to that what we've now seen in the March quarter results and in our June quarter guidance as well has implied a very strong gross margin performance. So combined the ASP increase with the gross margin strength really kind of delivers for us on the bottom line. And so from a framework perspective, as we look at the rest of the year and the other OEMs that framework should still hold.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe I'm confused here. I'm just curious you're taking a 30% haircut. And I thought when you're explaining QTL; you said the market would be down 30%. So if you could just clarify that that would be helpful. And then I guess the second part of the question, you signed these two new agreements. I think you noted in your filing you've seen a headwind with the royalty rates in terms of customers just taking the essential patents. I'm just curious if that's what these deals are. And if you can just comment on the body of your patent portfolio the ones that are just taking essential patents versus all your patents?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah. Hi, Blayne. From a forecast perspective, the way we forecasted QTL for the June quarter is with the market reduction of 30%, we -- if you think about a normal run rate for the QTL business, it would be in the $1 billion to $1.2 billion range midpoint of $1.1 billion. We applied the handset market reduction of 30% to that to get to a range of -- range with the midpoint of $850 million for QTL. So it's pretty straightforward methodology really reflecting the weakness in market on the revenue guidance.
Alex Rogers:
And Blayne, this is Alex. Look QTL is in a really good position. We expected to get the OPPO and the Vivo license agreements negotiated and signed and we did. So those are long-term worldwide SEP agreements covering multimode products. Those agreements are consistent with the $1 billion to $1.2 billion run rate absent COVID-19. And so we basically got all of the top OEMs, but Huawei. Any major OEM is fully signed up. And so for the next number of years we don't have any renewals that -- so it's a ways out. So I don't see the SEP agreements that we've signed as being subject to headwinds. I actually kind of see it the opposite way around. We launched the 5G licensing program back in 2017 and we have executed really well on it. And come to a position where we're really in a good position with one negotiation with Huawei still ongoing.
Blayne Curtis:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys. I have two questions. Now the first one is pricing -- MSM pricing, it was $23 two quarters ago, then went up to $32. And now you're guiding implied for $29. So the question is what are the puts and takes here? What are the factors that are driving it up so much from only two quarters ago? And then the second question is, just if you can give some color on your assumptions next quarter. You said, that unit – for QTL you said that unit shipments you're assuming, it's 30% below your previous guidance. What does it mean? What kind of assumptions do you have for the environment next quarter? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Tal. On the revenue per MSM trend, going from our fiscal first quarter, the December quarter to fiscal second quarter, as we had outlined previously, the key drivers there were three factors. First is, the transition from 4G to 5G helping us on the chipset pricing side, the core chipset. Second is RF front end design traction on top of that, along with the 5G launches. And then third is a typical seasonal mix shift that works in our favor when you go from the December to the March quarter, because that's when our new premium and high-tier chips come out and several of our OEMs launch their new phones. When you go from -- so we outlined these assumptions and we delivered on those results. I'm extremely happy that we were able to do that along with expanding our gross margin percentage. When you look forward to the June quarter, one of those three factors that I outlined for the March quarter changes, which is the mix shift towards premium and high-tier devices. So you kind of have a change in that which reduces your revenue per MSM a bit, but it's more a function of which chips are being sold in that quarter rather than a fundamental change in the business. We're still continuing to see extremely high revenue per MSM, given our historical trends and strong gross margins on top of it.
Tal Liani:
And is this 29 -- is the high 20s the new environment we need to get used to going forward, going from kind of low-20s to high-20s?
Akash Palkhiwala:
So we're not really kind of guiding this number going forward. But if you go back to the framework that we've given, which is, we expect with 5G to see an increase of 1.5x from where we've been in the past, that would lead to a framework very similar to yours.
Tal Liani:
Got it.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And then on your second question on QTL, the forecast really is -- we're looking at the midpoint of our normal revenue guidance range of $1.1 billion and the 30% is what we're seeing in terms of reduction of handsets. And so, we're applying that to the overall forecast that we had prior to it, which kind of reflected or was reflected in the annual guidance of 1.8 billion units that we'd given, which was roughly flat for the calendar year. So you should think of it as that's reflective of a market that was similar to last year and we are taking a reduction off of that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I want to start out on the QCT side. Akash, you did a great job in QTL of kind of saying what the moving parts were in the quarter for June guidance, especially relative to the 30% reduction in units. If I take that $0.30 hit to EPS that you guys said COVID impact, is that just on the QTL side? Or are there some puts and takes you could walk us through on the QCT side as far as the general market weakness might be applying to Qualcomm as well?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Sure, sure. So, Ross, we outlined an impact of greater than $0.30 and it's a combination of QCT and QTL. So I think you've got the math on QTL. It's really taking the $1.1 billion midpoint and comparing it to our guidance midpoint of $850 million. The delta of $250 million is a part of that $0.30 calculation. On the QCT side, we looked at a couple of data points. One is, kind of, how have the signal's changed bottoms-up from the OEMs that we've been receiving over the last three or four weeks, which kind of reflects the weakness they're seeing in the sell-through. We also looked at our OEMs and what their sell-through has been in certain regions where we have higher share. And it's a combination of those factors that we use to estimate the impact on QCT.
Ross Seymore:
Got you. And I guess, as my follow-up, just going to the QTL side, one housekeeping item and then a kind of a bigger picture question on this. How is it relatively in line with your $1 billion to $1.2 billion estimate if the market was 20% weaker in the March quarter? And then any sort of updates on the Huawei negotiations, now that you successfully got the OPPO and Vivo side done? And then finally anything on the FTC.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So on the QTL side for the March quarter, there are a couple of things that went in our favor. First is the weakness that we saw, the 21% on the handsets. If we look at the mix of the regions on that weakness it was more -- much more so in China and less in other regions. The impact in other regions came later in the quarter. And so, in terms of how that translates into a mix impact from a dollar perspective is a combination of which tier devices got impacted and then which with OEMs. So that's kind of one key factor. The second factor, as I said in my prepared remarks, was we also had some updates to previous royalty estimates, which kind of is part of our normal licensing program. You see some changes based on updated reporting we received from OEMs. So we had a little bit of that in the quarter that helped as well.
Alex Rogers:
So, this is Alex. Let me handle the last two parts of the question. So the Huawei discussions are ongoing and we're still working on trying to negotiate a deal. And as we've discussed previously, both parties have the right to seek a binding arbitration to set new terms for a new deal going forward, but neither party has decided to do that yet. We're still engaged in the negotiation process. With respect to the FTC, look I think the first thing is, we have a lot of confidence in the merits of the appeal. But I think it's also important to go back to a basic touch point and that is the district court decision did not invalidate existing agreements. And so before during and after, we signed up essentially every major OEM and many, many other OEMs in this context. And these agreements are not going to -- the notion that these agreements are going away actually is not a factor, because it never was an issue with this court opinion the way that came out. And the licensees continue to honor their agreements. So again, I think however the FTC matter turns out that aspect of the decision is not going to change.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. Good afternoon. Cristiano, I want to follow-up on I think a couple of data points you mentioned earlier just to make sure I got them right. You said 30% of units in China 5G at this point and something like 70% of device launches. And if I have those right maybe you could talk a little bit about the 5G carrier subsidies and promotional environment, and how aggressive the carriers may be in China? And how you think about that kind of aggressive 5G promotion sort of cascading through the rest of the world markets as the rest of the world turns on 5G? Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Thank you, Matt for your question. So let me address the first one. So the data point is what we saw is 5G sell-in penetration reached 30% in the month of March. That is up from 19% in demand for December. So you can see that the market continued to transition the devices towards 5G. And the other data point which is in the month of March of all the phone models launched in China 71% was 5G, which shows actually 5G getting to all the different price points. So if you remember last quarter, we saw that with some of our platform, which is Snapdragon 700, we saw price points at $285 for 5G devices. And I think that further validate the total 5G units for the year and I think China is going to be driving a lot of the volume. And our position with China remains very strong. Now to your other questions about the 5G rollout. What we -- it's an interesting question. I think while we've seen some delays in places for example like Europe where auctions have not yet been completed in all the countries. What we have seen is acceleration in some other places. For example, in the United States, some carriers are actually ahead of scheduling the build-out, taking advantage of probably less traffic. And important to note that Japan had launched both 5G sub-6 and millimeter wave within the quarter and Korea Telecom announced millimeter wave in Korea before the end of 2020. So you may have some puts and takes. But in general, I think the 5G story remain intact. And if anything this current environment probably underscored the importance of connectivity in telecom. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to revisit QTL in the quarter. So I know you mentioned it was -- you had some mix benefits as well as catch ups. But I mean if units for the market were down 21% year-over-year. I know China units were down relative to I don't know 35% year-over-year give or take, 50% sequential. I mean your Q2 revenues were only down $50 million year-over-year. It was like 4%. I mean, the catch-up or adjustment must have been very sizable. Can you give us an idea of how much that adjustment or catch-up payment-wise and what was the driver of it? Was any of it coming from OPPO and Vivo? Like what would the QTL have been in the quarter without that catch-up?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, hi, Stacy, it's Akash. So maybe just to kind of quickly address the catch-up comments. The way the QTL model works and I think you're very familiar with this. We -- as we get reports from licensees in the past, sometimes we get updates from them in the future, as they kind of finish up their accounting of the units and the ASPs. So that usually results in a catch-up. The second is that if there are audit settlements that would give us catch-ups as well. And then really if we end up finalizing licenses, that would be a factor also. So there are several factors that cause it. And as you know, we've had a couple of these in our history consistently. Usually, the number is smaller. So we don't specifically talk about it. And there is a run rate in each quarter of these factors. Clearly, we had a larger impact this time. But we –
Stacy Rasgon:
[Indiscernible].
Akash Palkhiwala:
We are not disclosing the specific number at this point, but it is a significant impact and that's why we clearly highlighted it and outlined it. The other factor that I think I mentioned clearly was the fact that they were China units and there were -- significant portion of it was at the lower end had an impact as well. Also this is a handset decline. If you look at non-handsets, we saw -- we estimate somewhere in the 5% to 7% range on impact of total units. So the weighted average impact across the market was smaller than the 21%.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. And I guess does that reverse next quarter then, because you're guiding the market 30% below your expectations, but you're only guiding your QTL revenues like 23% below normal expectations. So is that what's driving that boost? Is it the 5G mix? Is it because -- like what's going on there that's actually helping the revenues relative to the unit shortfall in Q3. Is that it?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yeah, that's right Stacy. So there is a factor of that that is the impact to non-handset devices versus handset devices that's benefiting and that's why it's not down the full 30% in the third fiscal quarter.
Stacy Rasgon:
It's not one --any one-timers or anything?
Akash Palkhiwala:
We are not expecting that. I mean, as we kind of finish the quarter, we might see some benefits but that really happens as we get updated reporting from licensees and not something we forecast.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mitch Steves:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I'm going to combine two into one because they're kind of related. So it's good to hear that China's coming back online. I just had a couple of questions related to that. So number one is, how do we know that China is not really trying to stockpile a little bit of inventories ahead of a potential additional U.S.-China relationship getting worse? And then secondly just any, sort of, like eyeball or any sort of rough metric to think about 2021? I think the majority of investors are looking out to next year in terms of what the impact is going to be. I mean, is there any granularity you can give in terms of what you guys think the recovery is going to look like even if it's not quantitative? Thank you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Well, I mean, we obviously spend a lot of time looking at the sell-in of chipsets versus the device sales and matching them and getting a sense of how the inventory profile is shaping out in China. Typically you would see a decline in inventory following Chinese New Year in the March quarter. And we've actually seen it play out consistent with our expectations and there's been a slight decline in inventory through the process.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And Mitch this is Steve. With respect to fiscal year 2021, I would say the general view within the company is that we need to be prepared for the opportunity that we think lays ahead. I mean, if you look at fiscal 2021, we think we're in a much better position in terms of the economic situation. And then the other thing that we've -- we're definitely getting from the market is just this desire to launch 5G and connectivity. I mean the -- I think there'll be some desire to increase infrastructure and some of the telemedicine tele -- the educate-from-home, work-from-home will be served through 5G here in the near-term and we need to be prepared for it. That's really how we're thinking about 2021 at this point.
Mitch Steves:
So no comment just in terms of it being like more of a You-shape or any sort of like shape of recovery for the smartphone side?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yeah. We haven't been trying to give a shape other than what we've talked about in terms of our market at this point. And as we've talked about internally in terms of the company, we're really trying to make sure that we are prepared to take advantage of any shape, recovery that appears. And so that's really how we're positioning the company, and then trying to communicate the best we can in terms of how the market looks at least over the next quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yeah, good afternoon, thank you for taking the question. I guess, first question, I was hoping you could perhaps speak to what you're hearing from your customers in China as they recover. What they're seeing, what customers' preference are in terms of mix price points and perhaps I guess what signals you're taking there. And then bringing to the rest of the world that underpins your overall recovery view?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks C.J. for your question. This is Cristiano. Look, we have had a lot of engagement I think very frequent, I think with our customers right now not only China across the globe. But what we're seeing, it's phones are continuing to launch. And as Akash outlined we've kind of be tracking not only sell-in, but sell-out in the market and we see the market started to recover. That's why we believe China, it can be a very good model of what we expect to see in other markets since their shift in time.
C.J. Muse:
Okay. That's helpful. And then based on the attach rate on the front-end side and what you do know in terms of flagship launch coming in the back half of the year. Does that 1.5 times content in the move to 5G include what you're seeing both from 5G and RF front-end? Or is there upside there based on what you're seeing on the attach rate side?
Cristiano Amon:
Okay. So a couple of updates. We have been tracking a total number of 5G designs. In the quarter that now went up, we have now 375 5G devices announcing. And we repeat, continue to repeat for the absolute majority of those virtually all of them continue to have our modem-to-antenna solution with RF front-end attach. And I think it got reflected in this quarter that this business is starting to have an inflection for QCT. It started to be meaningful. We're very happy with the results so far in the front end and we expect that to continue. To your question about the 1.5 metric that holds remain true for us. And that -- even as the market scale down from flagship to the lower tiers like-for-like in the 700 tier or 600 tier or even 400 tiers we'll see that metric of 1.5.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Hi, I guess I had 2. First on Huawei, they're really kind of an outlier now because we have OPPO, Vivo and Apple have all signed. And I guess at the same time obviously the U.S. is sort of turning up the heat on Huawei. So why would they sign now, if you're sort of one of the more obvious leverage points that China has in all of this. So the question there is how long do you let this go on with them? And sort of when do you decide to just arbitrate with them?
Alex Rogers:
So, this is Alex. Look there are a number of environmental factors some that are -- maybe you can view as in one direction. Others can view in another direction. For example the Phase one outcome is good -- a good environment for moving toward a negotiated resolution here. Look we're still in this negotiation. And so, we still are looking at this as something that we want to drive to a conclusion. The question of whether or not we have to trigger arbitration is still some months out. And so, we're going to keep moving with this and see if we can get this thing resolved. So I don't have an answer for you other than that.
Timothy Arcuri:
Okay. I guess -- and then the second question is on OPPO and Vivo. I know there was a prior question on this but my question is around June. Because in the footnotes it sounds like there are some catch-up payments in June from these two licensees. Can you just help us quantify Akash what the catch-ups are in June specifically? The footnote says near term. So I assume that all of the true-up for those two licensees will be in June? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So this is really the accounts receivables that's outstanding that they're going to pay going forward. And so as a part of our license agreement there's an alignment with them on kind of remaining payments that are outstanding and a very near-term schedule for them to finish those payments.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Rolland:
Hi guys, tying into perhaps a earlier question. Can you talk about your adjacencies business? How big it is now and perhaps changes we've seen in the size of that business since the TDK acquisition and then growth in 2019 and any expectation for 2020 in that adjacency business as well?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi Chris. So at our Analyst Day we had kind of sized the total scale of those businesses when -- for the fiscal year 2019. And then we gave an assumption forecast on how fast the market is going to grow approximately 8% and with our target of matching or beating the market growth. And so that's the framework for forecasting those businesses and we're still kind of on track along those lines. In this environment one of the things we have seen is several of our businesses including IoT and networking they benefit from the work-from-home environment and we've seen a lot of strength in those areas.
Christopher Rolland:
Excellent and then just tying into the RF more specifically. Are there any conditions? Or is it even technically possible for a situation which you would break up the various parts within your antenna module and sell them individually? For example, could you sell just the transceiver? Or is this an all or nothing deal for you guys for millimeter wave or even sub-6? How are you thinking about that?
Cristiano Amon:
Hey Chris, it's Cristiano. Thanks for the question. Look we have been very clear about the technical advantages of the modem to antenna. But having said that, we have seen opportunities that we're starting to sell silicon in some of our competitors' baseband as well. And there is a number of different open interfaces. So I think you will see flexibility from Qualcomm, but we still feel strongly that you'll probably get the best performance when you actually have an integrated modem to antenna solution.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes, thanks very much. A question for Akash. Can you maybe just help us with the split in the MSMs in the March quarter between 5G and 4G? And then just looking into June, which you've guided 125 million to 145 million MSMs, again how would that look between 5G and 4G particularly now that the 765G starts to ramp up?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, Brett. Yes. So we've so far not disclosed a breakdown of our MSM units. I mean it's clearly an important metric for us in terms of 5G penetration. The way you should think about it is, if you look at kind of the key launches in the premium and the high tier, we pretty much – premium tier every launch that has happened has used our premium tier chip outside of Huawei. And so it's really a mix of premium tier launches and volume in different regions and that could be one way to kind of back into a number for us for 5G versus 4G. We will keep – as we go forward we'll look at how we can get additional disclosures so that it gives us a sense – it gives you guys a sense of the traction we have in 5G. Overall very strong design win pipeline across all customers. And we're seeing demand not just at premium tier but across high and mid-tiers as well for our 5G solutions.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Akash. And maybe my follow-up for Cristiano. On millimeter wave, I just wanted to get your perspective given all the changes in the market in the last 90 days. I think in the past you talked about there's a mandatory – millimeter wave is a mandatory feature for flagship smartphones in the U.S. for many U.S. operators. And we would see a Japanese and a Korean launch for millimeter wave. Is that still on track? And then how should we think about millimeter wave in the grand scheme of your overall 5G volumes this year? Thanks very much.
Cristiano Amon:
Brett, thanks for the question. Yes it remains a reality. And as we have probably mentioned earlier in some cases the current environment had accelerated the build-out of the new millimeter wave market. So it continues to be a requirement for flagships in the United States market. We expect to see millimeter wave coming down to the high-tier as we're bringing the capability across our chipsets. We saw that IGA [ph] launch in Japan as expected. Korea announced that they will provide millimeter wave service – Korea Telecom announced within the calendar year. And we expect that to continue 2021, you'll start seeing this going to other markets as well.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. Thank you. First of all I just wanted to say thank you to the employees of Qualcomm. We obviously had a very unusual quarter with respect to the work environment. And even with that a very strong execution and I want to thank everyone for their hard work. I also want to remind everyone that I think the technologies we're all working on have probably never been more important than they are today. So thank you very much for your hard work and we look forward to taking advantage of everything that we're putting together. So thank you everybody. See you next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, February 5, 2020. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13697473. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong results in the first fiscal quarter with non-GAAP earnings of $0.99 per share, above the high end of our guidance range, led by strength in our chip business. We're also pleased to see strong year-over-year revenue growth in our licensing business. As you can see from our strong results, our business reached a key inflection point exiting fiscal Q1, demonstrating the positive financial impact of our 5G strategy to grow our addressable dollar content per device with higher-performing core chipsets and new RF front-end content. Virtually all of our 5G Snapdragon design wins are using our RF front-end solutions for 5G sub 6 and/or millimeter wave, including design wins based on our second-generation solutions. As we continue to execute on our RF front-end strategy, we are pleased to see our RF design win pipeline contribute to the strength of our quarterly results and our outlook. We are in a strong position with leading technology and intellectual property and the best products in the company's history. Our 5G roadmap extends beyond release '17, placing us on the cusp of a multi-decade mobile transformation as 5G increasingly becomes the foundation for the digital transformation of industries beyond smartphones. Turning to QTL, we have now signed over 85 G license agreements up from 75 license agreements last November. Most recently, we signed extensions with 2 key Chinese OEMs through the end of March as we work to complete long-term 5G license agreements. Let me now spend some time updating you on 5G traction globally. As we start the year, there are over 345 operators in nearly 120 countries, investing in 5G, including 45 operators in over 20 countries that have launched commercial 5G services, spanning both the sub-6 and millimeter wave spectrum. Looking forward, we continue to expect millimeter wave to be deployed in all regions. Additionally, more than 45 OEMs have launched or announced commercial 5G devices, many of which are using our Snapdragon 5G platforms. On the product side, we recently introduced our flagship Snapdragon 865 mobile platform that we expect will power many premium tier Android smartphones this year. We also introduced the Snapdragon 765 and 765 Gaming Mobile platforms with an integrated 5G modem. With over 275 5G devices announced or in development, spanning multiple price tiers, our product offerings will help make 5G more accessible to consumers. We also expanded our 4G lineup with new mobile platforms that enable our partners to offer sophisticated solutions that meet global 4G demand, particularly in emerging economies across multiple tiers and price segments. Turning to Korea, last December, all three Korean operators combined reported approximately 4.7 million 5G subscribers and are forecasting continued growth throughout calendar year 2020. We see Korea as a leading indicator for the pace of 5G adoption. Of note, the expected 5G subscriber growth is not just isolated to the sub-6 frequency bands. Carriers are planning millimeter wave service in 2020. Turning to China, 5G device sell in increased through December. The China Academy of Telecommunication Research reported sell-in of 13 million 5G handsets in calendar Q4 2019. Importantly, 5G handset sell-in penetration reached 19% in December 2019. We are already seeing devices priced as low as RMB 2,000 or approximately USD 285 million. At this point, 5G can address approximately 40% of domestic China smartphone sales. In the U.S., the 5G network build-out is progressing well at the top 4 carriers across sub-6 and millimeter wave spectrum. Verizon is leading the deployment of enhanced mobile broadband with millimeter wave service in 31 cities and is expanding their device roadmap to approximately 20 new 5G products this year. T-Mobile's 5G network now covers more than 200 million people and more than 1 million square miles across the United States. AT&T expects to have nationwide 5G coverage by calendar Q2. And Sprint expanded their 5G network coverage to 9 metropolitan areas. I would also like to highlight two recent developments on spectrum in the United States that will help drive even greater momentum for 5G. First, the FCC gave final approval for commercial use of the CBRS band, taking advantage of spectrum sharing techniques that we and others in the industry began working on years ago. The CBRS band is well suited for enterprise, smart city and industrial IoT deployments. And second, the FCC's latest millimeter wave auction which includes the largest amount of millimeter wave spectrum ever up for bid in an auction, is ongoing and will bring up to 3.4 gigahertz of additional millimeter wave spectrum to the U.S. market. Turning to automotive, as a measure of our continued automotive success, our design win pipeline is now over $7 billion, up from $5.5 billion a year ago, which does not include any impact from our recently launched autonomous driving platform, Snapdragon Ride. We continued to benefit from our systems level expertise, expanding our automotive solutions to include an autonomous driving platform, Snapdragon Ride. With a long history of automotive innovation, we now -- we have now become a trusted adviser to many of the world's leading automakers. Over 125 million vehicles use our broad range of automotive solutions, including telematics, in-car connectivity and infotainment platforms. Our Snapdragon Ride ADAS platform represents a significant expansion of our addressable market. We look forward to seeing our Snapdragon Ride ADAS and autonomous solutions on the road in 2023. We are very pleased with the FCC's unanimous vote in December to move forward with allocating spectrum in the 5.9 gigahertz band for cellular vehicle to everything technology. Since that vote, we are seeing traction for cellular V2x in the 5.9 gigahertz band across regions. Looking forward, we continue to remain optimistic about our growth opportunities in IoT, always connected PCs and cloud AI. Lastly, as the coronavirus situation continues to unfold. Our thoughts are with the many Qualcomm employees in China, our customers and suppliers, their families, as well as those who are impacted by this unprecedented situation. As Akash will share with you, we have considered the impact of the coronavirus in our forward guidance based on the limited information we have at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with a discussion of first fiscal quarter earnings. Our results demonstrated strong execution with revenues of $5.1 billion at the high end of our guidance range and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.99, $0.14 above the midpoint of our guidance. The outperformance in the quarter was driven by strength in QCT across 5G, RF front-end and adjacent platforms with revenues of $3.6 billion, an EBITDA margin of 13%, which was above the high end of our guidance range. MSM shipments of 155 million units were consistent with the midpoint of our guidance. QTL delivered revenues of $1.4 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year and EBIT margins of 72%, reflecting the benefit of a seasonally high quarter. We returned approximately $1.5 billion to stockholders during the quarter, consisting of $710 million in dividends and $762 million in stock repurchases.. With that, I'd like to turn to our global 3G/4G/5G device forecast. We continue to expect approximately 1.75 billion devices for calendar 2019. Our forecast for calendar 2020 remains unchanged at 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices, including 175 million to 225 million 5G devices. This forecast continues to reflect flat handsets and low double-digit growth in non-handsets. Now let me walk you through our financial guidance. For our second fiscal quarter guidance, we are estimating revenues to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 to $0.95. There is significant uncertainty around the impact from the coronavirus on handset demand and supply chain. Based on the information we have at this time, we are widening and reducing the low end of our guidance range. We remain in active contact with our employees, customers and suppliers as we continue to monitor the situation. In QCT, we expect second fiscal quarter revenues of $3.9 billion to $4.5 billion, an EBIT margin of 15% to 17%. The midpoint of our revenue guidance represents approximately 16% growth sequentially. We estimate MSM shipments of 125 million to 145 million units, a 13% sequential decline at the midpoint. This trend is consistent with historical seasonality and reflects the latest demand signals from our customers. Sequentially, we expect revenue per MSM to be meaningfully higher, reflecting increased content with 5G device launches in addition to normal seasonal mix shift towards higher tier chipsets. Our guidance includes a greater than 50% increase in RF front-end revenues in the second fiscal quarter on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. For QTL, we estimate second fiscal quarter revenues to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion with EBITDA margins of 61% to 65%. We anticipate second fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up 5% to 7% sequentially due to normal seasonality. Looking forward, we continue to see two inflection points in fiscal 2020. The strength in the first half of the fiscal year reflects the first inflection point on the acceleration of 5G demand. We expect our third fiscal quarter performance to be in line with our second fiscal quarter, consistent with historical trends in our QCT business. We expect the next inflection point with the launch of additional 5G flagship handsets to be in the fourth quarter and extend into fiscal 2021. In conclusion, we remain confident in the long-term growth opportunities we outlined at our Analyst Day, including 5G adoption, RF front-end content capture and expansion of our technology into adjacent platforms. Thank you and I will now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Samik Chatterjee:
So if I can just start off on the guidance itself and you mentioned kind of the seasonal decline in some unit shipments. So just wondering if you can walk us through the kind of sequential move from the 155 million unit shipments you had this quarter to the new range of $125 million to $145 million. How much of that is seasonality and what are you really factoring in terms of the kind of budgeting for the virus impact? And what you're hearing from OEMs in terms of delays that might be impacting that range that you're guiding to?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Samik, this is Akash. So if you take the midpoint of our guidance range and look at the sequential decline, it's approximately a 13% decline. And if you consider the seasonality in previous years, we've seen a decline of 16% to 22%. So it's largely consistent with the sequential decline we have seen in the past. So that's kind of your question on seasonality. This also -- our forecast also reflects the demand that we currently have from our OEM partners. And so that's -- it's also consistent with the demand we're seeing at this point.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay. And then if I can just follow-up on the ASP ramp here. So if you take the guidance that you have, the average ASP seems to ramp up sequentially from $23 on the MSM unit to $31. I'm just wondering if you -- that's already a 23% sequential increase, if you're doing the math right. Just wondering if you can share your thoughts about what that ASP ramp looks like because it sounded like you're expecting more RF content to come through later half of the year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Samik, yes, you're doing the math right, it's consistent with our view. Really, there are 3 drivers to the ASP increase. First is our normal sequential increase because of the benefit of the mix improved. What happens is we launched our new premium tier and high tier chip during this time frame and new devices are launched with it. And so you see a mix shift to premium and high tiers, which benefits us. So that's the first driver. The second driver is with 5G coming in, the transition from 4G to 5G, it gives us an opportunity to increase the content in the core chipset before RF front end. And so you have incremental monetization from that. And then finally, RF front-end also impacting that because we have, as we've talked about, we have a very strong design win pipeline, not just on the core chipset, but on RF front end as well. And now that is being reflected in our guidance. I'd also note that in my script, I went through -- I provided a data point on RF front-end revenue growth. So we're seeing 50% -- greater than 50% revenue growth in RF front end both on a sequential basis, so first quarter to second quarter, and a year-over-year basis. So it's our design win pipeline going up and the revenue and the forecast now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley:
Great. Yes, just building on some of those questions. I guess, first, maybe for Cristiano. Can you update us on the competitive environment for 5G, particularly on the Android side? How do you see 5G ramps potential Qualcomm share improving over the course of the year? And with the x55 coming, how should that also maybe impact share and ASP trends?
Cristiano Amon:
Mike, thanks for the question. So there's a lot there. Let me just talk a little bit about the ramp and the impact on the new chipset. So we said in our script that the number of designs on 5Gs are now 275. 2/3 of that design pipeline now is on our second-generation chipset. So we continue to see traction especially as we go from our first 5G product or second product that is increasing. And in that traction, we continue to see the trend of high RF front end attached on Snapdragon. Competition, we expect to have competition since the very beginning. This is a very competitive market. However, we're not seeing anything on competition different than what we expected in our planning assumptions. So we expect QCT share to remain strong. We have made assumptions on -- throughout the year, that it is consistent to what we have seen in the market, and there's nothing new there.
Mike Walkley:
Great. And just a follow-up for clarification with the ramp laid out in the guidance on Q4, is that also an ASP ramp coming again on better 5G mix? Or is it more towards a unit ramp? Obviously, new customer, Apple coming back into the model and just more seasonal trends, can you help us think about what kind of ramp on those 2 metrics? That would be great.
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. So on the ASP side, the way we think about ASP is a factor of -- a combination of a couple of factors. One is just as we go from 4G to 5G, we've talked about how we expect the revenue opportunity for us to expand by 1.5x between the core chipset and the RF front end. But then also, as we go across the tiers, down the tiers, starting with the premium and high tier, but then eventually going into mid-tier later in the year as well with 5G, the combination of those factors will inform the average revenue per MSM. And then for later flagship launches that happened in the fall time frame. Again, it will -- kind of the same 1.5x rule should apply as we go from 4G to 5G, and it's really a question of how the mix plays out across the tiers and the OEMs that drives the weighted average ASP.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.
Chris Caso:
Just first question is just a clarification of what you guided to for the third fiscal quarter. And you said the performance to be in line with the second fiscal quarter. Just give some more color around that, is that with regard to QCT, QTL together? Is that simply referring to revenue? Is that a margin assumption as well?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So I mean, the way we think about the year, Chris, it's kind of playing out largely as we had expected. In the last call, we outlined that we saw a couple of inflection points through the year, kind of both in the first half of the year and then in the fourth quarter. And our view kind of hasn't changed. We've seen a little bit of an acceleration in 5G deployment which shows up in our results for the quarter and the guidance. And beyond that, as you go from second quarter to third quarter, it just plays to the normal seasonality of our businesses.
Chris Caso:
All right. And with regard to QCT now. Just a couple of questions there. With regard to the MSM guidance for the March quarter. Of the 135 million midpoint units, how many of those are 5G now? Can you give us some sense of how, I guess, the 5G penetration into the product line right now and then following from that, with the big jump that you've had in ASPs for all the reasons that you mentioned. Is that something we should expect to be sustainable through the year? Perhaps, does it get better as 5G attach rates increase? Is there perhaps some natural ASP declines as products mature? Could you give us some sense of how that progresses through the year?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So Chris, this is Akash. We're not breaking down our 5G units at this point as a percent of our total MSM units. But the way to think about that number is really look at new handset launches. That launches that will happen in the quarter and over the next 6 months. And those where we expect primarily to be, at the premium and the high tier, mostly be 5G launches. And so the volume driven by those launches would be 5G.
Cristiano Amon:
Chris, this is Cristiano, just to add a data point maybe it will help to get to the answer. If you look at markets such as United States, I think the device requirements where they move on some of all the flagships and the high tier products, they are 5G products today. But the China one is an interesting one we said in the script, which is 5G sell-in penetration reached 19% the month of December. And some of the price points already can address about 40% of the total China market based on the price points we see in the market. So all of this is good indicator about the 5G transition.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I was wondering if -- I want to ask the coronavirus question a little more explicitly. What was your QCT MSM guide be for Q2 if you weren't baking in any coronavirus?
Akash Palkhiwala:
So Stacy, what we are factoring into our guidance is really looking at the demand that we have from the customers and the information we have from them. When you look at -- on the MSM side, when you look at the overall EPS guidance, as you're aware, we typically guide a $0.10 range. And what we did to include the impact of the viruses to reduce the bottom end of the range by $0.05 to reflect the information we have at this point. But it's really something that we're going to continue to monitor as we go forward.
Stacy Rasgon:
Got it. For my follow-up, I want to ask about QCT pricing and margins into Q2. So you're guiding revenue per MSM up 33%, give or take, sequentially. And I get that. Why are you guiding chipset margins only up a few points, like 3 points. Like, what are the gross margins of these 5G parts look like? Is there like a headwind there? Or is there something else that's going on with the remainder of like 4G pricing as that flushes out? I guess, I would have expected more margin upside given that share of magnitude of ASP upside? What's going on there?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Stacy, it's Akash again. I think the numbers we gave out are actually very consistent with what we had outlined at previous earnings release. We had indicated a mid-teens growth in revenue and a mid-teens margin profile. And we're guiding 15% to 17%. I mean, as you know well, it's a combination of this total units, the pricing environment and then -- and the profitability around it. And it's very consistent with our expectations.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
I wanted to stick on the theme of the revenue per MSM side, but maybe take a slightly different spin to it. You guys always do a great job of explaining in detail what the revenue per MSM assumptions are and then you tie it together to the EBT margins. But I wanted to see just conceptually going forward, if the AP side or the revenue per MSM is the most powerful driver of the business, is that accretive to the gross margin side? And I guess, somewhat similar to Stacy's question, is there something detrimental to the gross margin side that's capping how much the operating margin would otherwise go up? Because I would think the ASPs or the content going up that much would be a very accretive outcome for you?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Ross, so it's a combination of a couple of things. I think as we see more percent of our devices move to 5G, we're going to see a benefit not just on the revenue per MSM, but also in the operating margin. The second is we're going across tiers. And so as we go across tiers and we have a second inflection point, that will further expand the scale of the 5G opportunity for us. As we outlined at the Analyst Day, we definitely expect to realize the operating leverage from the investment in 5G. And so as we go forward, we'll continue to see, as we had -- especially as we hit the second inflection point later in the year, expansion in our operating margins.
Ross Seymore:
I guess as my 1 follow-up, moving over to the QTL side of things. I think Steve said earlier that you had 10 new licensees or 85 versus the 75 before. Does that do anything to change things in the QTL revenue outlook to some sort of above seasonal trends, whether it be in the March quarter or beyond as you're getting more people to pay for you with those -- the new 5G licenses?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So the way we think about we planned QTL from a 5G perspective, is we've assumed that the market kind of stays at its current structure. And any 5G benefit that comes either from higher replacement rates and more devices as a result of that. Or it comes through an improved ASP, especially at the mid and the low tiers, that would be incremental to our forecast. I mean, clearly, as we go and sign the remaining licensees on 5G and go through our entire licensing base to convert the 2 5G licenses, that's something that's very important to us and critical to us as the transition to 5G happens.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. I guess, I wanted to ask a little bit about -- I know I caution in the commentary in the guidance, you talked about the normal seasonality from December to March of 13% on units. But if you look back on a year-over-year basis in both of those quarters, the total numbers are down fairly substantially. And with 5G ramping, I wonder if the team could give a little bit of update on the 4G business that you have and the market share shifts that may or may not be happening? Or is this just all a market volume story?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Matt, it's a combination of a couple of things. In these quarters last year, a year ago, we had a higher volume at Apple since we were in the previous models and still shipping volume to them, which is one reason for the decline. And then second is Huawei. While in the scheme of things, they're a small customer for us, they were a small customer for us, we still had material volume with them. And so when you adjust for those, the delta to what you would expect is extremely small and it just reflects the general market environment.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it. And as my follow-up, I don't know if this is for Christian or Steve. It's sort of an interesting juxtaposition that one of the big drivers of growth at your company is 5G RF content. At the same time, one of the big players in RF is deeming that business as noncore. Maybe you could just share your reactions to that news if do you think is a result of your business or a future opportunity for your business? And just how you've seen the customer base react? That would be really helpful.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. This is Steve. I would say, obviously, it's not a surprise to us. We've been building this for some time and working really to get this opportunity into the business. The growth of opportunity on the RF side for us due to 5G, I think, is a good story, a good continuing story. We're happy to see it grow across tiers. I think there's still an opportunity for other players. There's obviously an opportunity on the 4G side. In terms of competitive dynamic or what we're seeing from the customers, we're definitely seeing the customers resonate with the system solution. There are some features that we can add, that we've been investing in, that I think people are finding valuable. But we're happy to see it flow into our business. We've been talking about it for some time, and it's great to see it actually in the results and in the guide.
Cristiano Amon:
Matt, this is Cristiano. I'll just add one thing real quick. Look, for us, the way to think about it, this is going to become part of our core business. And that's what you see reflected in the revenue per MSM. We expect that uplift that we've seen on 5G and RF to continue going forward, especially as we go down the tiers.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.
Rod Hall:
I wanted to start with channel inventory. And kind of -- I know you don't generally like to comment on it. But as we exit March, given what's going on with demand in China, do you have an expectation that handset channel inventory there will be higher than normal as we exit March? And just kind of what you think the flow of inventory might look like over the course of a couple of quarters here. And then I also wanted to kind of come back to the competitive environment on 5G and ask you, how important share is to you in that environment? And maybe, Steve, you could comment on what you would see as advantages to having higher market share? Obviously, there are cost advantages and so on. But there are other strategic advantages we might not be thinking about that are important to you.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Rob, from a channel inventory perspective, I mean, obviously, given how we are closely following the situation in China, but this is something that we need to continue to monitor. The key driver for us is 5G and 5G launches. And so in terms of inventory on 5G, we're really at the front end. And we have increasing demand from our OEM base. And really, the challenge for us is how do we keep up with increasing demand, because it's an incredible opportunity for us to grow.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes, I think on share. I think -- this is Steve. I think on share, we're not seeing anything that we didn't anticipate. We benefit, I think, a bit from a bit more geographical capability. We sell into handsets that sell into more markets. They tend to be better units for us and they give us not only scale kind of from the normal scale perspective, but also, I would say, feature and diversity scale from things. If we have an issue, a supply chain issue in the -- or demand issue in China, we tend to have the ability to have other regions to back it up. So we tend to look at the business in terms of our planning. We want to make sure that we maintain that strength across different markets. And I think that's going to serve us well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.
C.J. Muse:
Just a follow-up question on the corona, earlier question to Akash, just trying to get this right, have you tempered the midpoint of your guide either on royalties or chipsets or you're just reflecting a wider EPS range?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, C.J., you should think of it as a wider EPS range. I mean, it's clearly something that we wanted to factor in our guidance. So what we did is we kind of held our normal guide but moved the lower end by $0.05.
Cristiano Amon:
Okay, helpful. As my follow-up, you're guiding revenues up roughly 5%, OpEx up 5% to 7%. So I guess, can you walk through what's driving the greater spending on the OpEx side? And how we should think about operating leverage as we proceed through calendar '20 and beyond?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So maybe two points to it. First is on the OpEx side, the increase is being driven by normal calendar year resets for employee expenses. And so it's really -- that's the primary driver. As you think about the full year, we are -- we have given guidance before where we expect it to be -- expect to be at the exit rate for '19 plus some small incremental on top of it. And so we're still sticking with that. I think if we execute to that and we have the growth on the revenue side, it will allow us to expand our margins and realize operating leverage.
Operator:
Our next question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
Timothy Arcuri:
There's a lot of questions on MSM ASPs. But obviously, RF front-end really is the big piece of the story. But I guess, we don't really have any benchmarks in terms of what your revenue is there. And I guess, in early 2018, I think you said that you thought that fiscal '19 revenue would be roughly $2 billion to $3 billion for RF front end. And it sounds like, in prior calls, you sort of hinted that you didn't get there. But I guess, just because it's such a big piece of the story. Can you sort of anchor it for us, where are you right now? How much revenue maybe in fiscal '19, did you do for RF front end. If you're doing so well, I would think you want to give us some numbers there?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, Tim, this is Akash. At this point, we're not giving a breakdown of our RF front-end revenue base. I mean, you have data points from a while ago. And kind of the market has changed since then. And we've kind of grown our business through the RF 360 transaction and just the incredible opportunity to grow RF front end on top of 5G. So we're excited about where it takes us, and we'll look for opportunities as we go forward to provide more data to you. But at this point, we're not providing any additional information.
Timothy Arcuri:
Okay. Okay. Okay. I guess then, I had a question on expenses in QTL. And it looks like they bottomed in the mid $300 million range back in September. But based on the guidance, they're sort of ramping back up by about $40 million per quarter. Is all of that legal expense related to the appeal? And sort of how do you think about the trajectory of margins in QTL and particularly the OpEx ramp through the year in that business?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So for QTL, if the way to think about the OpEx and the business going forward is really look at the first quarter actuals and use that as the basis for the expense going forward. I mean, it's -- at this point, we're not necessarily looking to scale expenses and litigation we see it as largely steady state. You will see some normal increases and declines. But it's really kind of flat OpEx. And then based on how the revenue shape changes through the year, that will -- that is how the margin will get impacted.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with SMBC Nikko Securities.
Srini Pajjuri:
A couple of questions. Akash, on the gross margin, obviously, a lot of questions there. My question is, my model, I think I'm getting close to flattish gross margin with almost 40% ASP increase here. My question is, I know you're ramping 5G and I'm suspecting most of the 5G initially is high tier. As we go through the year and as you ramp more mid and low-tier, is there a risk that gross margins could actually decline? Or are you comfortable saying that gross margins can at least remain at these levels?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Srini, we're not giving guidance on gross margins. But really, from an operating margin perspective, the way we think about leverage is really as we transition from 4G to 5G, we should be able to hold or improve our structure. And then with OpEx guidance that we've previously provided, the combination of those factors should allow us to meet our long-term operating margin guidance.
Srini Pajjuri:
Got it. And then maybe for Cristiano. Cristiano, on the RF, you said vast majority of the modem design wins are using your RF solutions. Any way to give us an idea as to what percent of the mix is using millimeter wave? And where do you see that going by the end of the year?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question. Right now, we see millimeter wave as a requirement for at least the majority of the United States operators in this year, we are working towards the millimeter wave launch of Japan and Korea. So we expect that to start to be a requirement on devices as well. And we have an optimistic view that by 2021 we're going to start to see that going into other geographies such as China and Europe. So 2020 is a United States, Japan and Korea story.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before turning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. So just number one, thanks to the employees of Qualcomm for driving 5G, as I know you spent a lot, a lot going on in the last year. I appreciate all that hard work. It's great to see the results flow through into the financials. We look forward to continuing that and talk to everybody next call. Thank you, everybody.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, November 6, 2019. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13695634. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and the slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong results in the fourth quarter with non-GAAP earnings of $0.78 per share, above the high end of our guidance range on solid performance in our licensing business. We are also pleased to see our licensing revenue return to a seasonal pattern with fiscal Q1 as a high, based on our recent licensing agreement with Apple. Over the last several years, we have invested to establish Qualcomm as a leader in 5G. As a reminder, 5G brings a significant increase in complexity over 4G, such as new and dense network architectures, high performance basebands, advanced RF front end designs, increased processing requirements, in addition to driving the leading edge process node. We are actively focused on helping to define and standardize releases 16 and 17 features to support the expansion of 5G into new large adjacent markets such as enterprise, industrial IoT and automotive. The complexity and expansion of cellular technologies beyond the smartphone into nearly every industry play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and are why we believe 5G will represent the single biggest opportunity in Qualcomm's history. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2020, the Company remains focused on these three key priorities. Number one, continue executing on 5G with our partners around the world. The number of OEMs and operators launching 5G products and services continues to increase throughout the year. There are now over 40 OEMs and over 30 operators launching or announcing 5G products or commercial service, up from approximately 20 OEMs and operators respectively at the start of the year. Looking forward, we expect 5G to launch in all regions, within the next two years to three years. On the product side, in September, we announced plans to accelerate 5G global commercialization at scale by expanding our portfolio of 5G mobile platforms into the Snapdragon 7 Series and 6 Series, launching as early as calendar Q1 2020. Our integrated 5G SoCs will support both sub-6 gigahertz and millimeter wave at the volume tiers across all geographies. As we continue to expand our 5G product portfolio, our design wins are also increasing. We now have over 230 5G design wins launched or in development, up from 150 in the prior quarter, virtually, all of which are using our RF front-end solutions for 5G sub-6 and/or millimeter wave. Notably, multiple OEMs are now shipping or have announced their second or third 5G device models using both our Snapdragon 5G core chipset and our modem to antenna RF front-end solution. In Korea, the migration to 5G continues at a strong pace. According to the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT, Korean operators have already signed up 3.5 million 5G subscribers through September, a pace that remains faster than its migration to 4G. Additionally, 5G millimeter wave services are in planning stages by Korean carriers for calendar 2020. In the United States, Verizon has committed to deploy 5G Ultra Wideband millimeter wave in 30 markets by year-end and T-Mobile separately announced plans to cover 200 million people with 5G on 600 megahertz before the end of this year. And in Europe, there are multiple 5G launches across Switzerland, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In China, all three mobile operators commercially launched 5G services last week bringing 5G to the largest smartphone subscriber base in the world. We now estimate that by the end of this year, the three operators will deploy a total of approximately 130,000 5G base stations. We further estimate that by the end of 2020, 5G base station deployments will increase to approximately 1 million which to put in context is 10 times the scale of the entire network of a large US operator. Lastly, TSMC recently attributed the significant increase in demand for their leading technology nodes to a stronger outlook for 5G deployment next year. This is yet another significant indicator of the 5G ramp into 2020. Second priority, to expand our technology platform into adjacent industry segments. In automotive, we are very encouraged with the engagement and design win traction we are experiencing from automakers and Tier 1 customers with our Telematics and third-generation Snapdragon automotive cockpit solutions. Our design win pipeline has now increased to almost $6.5 billion, up from $5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into strong growth in auto over the next several years. Over time, as the technology roadmap in auto converges with the cellular roadmap, we expect to see an increased opportunity to lead in new product categories, notably ADAS. In compute, we continue to build traction in the Windows on Snapdragon always-on, always-connected PC category. In August, Samsung announced the Galaxy Book S, based on the Snapdragon 8cx. This is the Samsung second Windows on Snapdragon device, and the first announced Snapdragon 8cx always-connected PC. In October, Microsoft launched the Surface Pro X, our first design with Microsoft in this premium tier, powered by a Snapdragon 8cx variant that is designed for the always-on compute environment, the Microsoft SQ1 developed in partnership with Microsoft. This is the finest surfaced ever and has three times the performance per watt of the Surface Pro 6. Priority three, drive revenue growth, operating leverage and earnings per share. Consistent with our comments last quarter, we continue to expect a positive inflection point as 5G ramps beginning in our fiscal second quarter. With the conclusion of our cost plan and significant share repurchases over the last year, we are poised to deliver margin expansion, an outsized growth in earnings and earnings per share as revenue growth accelerates. We are pleased with the progress we have made over the course of 2019 and believe the business is very well positioned for sustained long-term growth as we benefit from the decisions and investments made over the last several years, including 5G, the return of Apple licensing and product revenues, growth in RF front-end and growth in adjacent businesses. Before I turn the call over to Akash, I'd like to congratulate him on becoming Qualcomm's Chief Financial Officer. As QCT Finance Lead for the past four years, Akash brings a deep knowledge base of our company, both operationally and strategically. I'm looking forward to working closely with Akash as we enter this next chapter of our history. I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. It is a very exciting time to become Chief Financial Officer of Qualcomm and I'm looking forward to engaging with our shareholders and analysts. I will begin with a discussion of our fiscal fourth quarter earnings. We delivered strong results with non-GAAP EPS of $0.78, $0.03 above the high end of our guidance range, and revenues of $4.8 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range. The outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by QTL on higher units and stronger mix resulting in QTL revenues of $1.16 billion and EBT margin of 68%. As a reminder, we did not record any royalty revenues from Huawei in our fiscal fourth quarter results. QCT delivered revenues of $3.6 billion and $152 million MSM chip shipments, in line with our expectations for the quarter. QCT's EBT margin was approximately 14%, flat sequentially and at the midpoint of our guidance range. Turning to fiscal 2019, we recorded $19.4 billion in non-GAAP revenues and $3.54 in non-GAAP earnings per share. During the year, we achieved several key milestones that position us favorably for fiscal 2020 and beyond. First, our early investments in 5G played a key role in accelerating 5G deployments and we have secured over 230 chipset design wins. Second, we completed the acquisition of the remaining interest in RF360 Holdings and established a strong design win pipeline for RF front-end products across 5G sub-6 and millimeter wave devices. Third, we signed global patent license and multi-year chipset supply agreements with Apple. Fourth, we concluded our cost reduction plan announced in January 2018. And lastly, since our July 2018 announcement, we have completed approximately $23 billion in stock repurchase through fiscal 2019, at an average price of $65 per share, resulting in a 22% reduction of our shares outstanding. Turning to our outlook, we are maintaining our estimate of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion units for calendar 2019 for global 3G, 4G, 5G device forecast. For calendar 2020, we are estimating 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion units, up approximately 3% at the midpoint, reflecting flat handsets and low double-digit growth in non-handsets. We are estimating 175 million to 225 million 5G handset units in calendar 2020. Consistent with our comments on our previous earnings call, our business outlook is impacted by several factors including weaker demand in China and certain developed regions, Huawei share gain in China and OEMs managing 4G inventory ahead of the transition to 5G. Turning to our first quarter guidance for fiscal 2020, we expect revenues to be in the range of $4.4 billion to $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 to $0.90. We estimate fiscal first quarter QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and EBT margin of 70% to 74%. We expect QTL revenues to be up 21% sequentially at the midpoint in our fiscal first quarter due to normal holiday seasonality driven by timing of flagship phone launches. Our fiscal first quarter forecast does not include any royalty revenues from Huawei while we continue to pursue a negotiated resolution of the licensing dispute. With the completion of the global patent license agreement with Apple earlier this year, QTL revenues will begin to reflect a seasonally high fiscal first quarter. Following the seasonal uplift, we expect QTL revenues to return to a range of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion in our fiscal second quarter. In QCT, we estimate fiscal first quarter MSM shipments of 145 million units to 165 million units and EBT margin in the range of 10% to 12%. QCT's EBT margin guidance reflects lower volume in the premium and high tiers, driven by a pause ahead of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020 and the normal timing of handset launches by our customers in these tiers. As we look beyond our fiscal first quarter, we see a significant inflection point for QCT as we expect to realize the benefits from the ramp of 5G handset launches. In the fiscal second quarter, we anticipate QCT revenues to grow in the mid-teens sequentially and QCT EBT margin to return to the mid-teens. In our fiscal first quarter, we expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be flat to down 2% sequentially. As a reminder, expenses are typically higher in our fiscal second quarter as it includes the normal calendar resets for certain employee-related costs. Interest expense net of investment and other income in the fiscal first quarter is expected to be approximately $100 million and is a reasonable estimate for each of the remaining quarters in fiscal 2020. For our fiscal first quarter, we also estimate approximately 1.16 billion weighted average shares outstanding and a tax rate of 14%. Looking forward, 2020 is an exciting year for Qualcomm as we expect the financial upside of our 5G strategy to begin to play out with multiple drivers of non-GAAP revenue and earnings growth, including the launch of 5G devices, RF front-end design win traction, growth in adjacencies combined with operating leverage and a substantially reduced share count. We look forward to seeing you in New York at our Analyst Day on November 19th, where we will be providing additional details about our long-term growth strategy. Thank you. And, I will now turn the call back over to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes, thank you. Good evening. I guess, first question would be on the pace of the 5G ramp as we proceed through the fiscal year, you've given some indications on where you expect overall revenue to be, if you could talk about that in percentage terms of 5G as a percentage of the mix as it goes through the year even on revenue terms or MSM terms, whatever you could do to give us some sense of how 5G penetrates as the year goes on?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks, Chris. This is Cristiano. Consistent I think with what we just said, in the earnings call, I think timing, our fiscal Q2 is that we started to see the inflection point as the devices have just started to show up in volumes and overall I think mix, we expect that to be ramping in the high and the premium tier and some of the markets that we've seen launching 5G, within that, we provide a metric before that we will see probably 1.5 times the ASP as we look at higher content, both the modem as well as the RF front-end.
Chris Caso:
Okay, thank you. And as a follow-on for that maybe you could give us some commentary on how that impacts QCT margins as the year progresses. Obviously, you've got that additional content. The margins are depressed that you're making the transition now, what should we expect as the year goes on those QCT margins?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. Hi, Chris. This is Akash. The way you should think about the year playing out for QCT with 5G is really there is going to be two inflection points in the chip business. The first inflection point will be flagship launches in early 2020 by both our global and Chinese OEMs and you should think of it as RMB3000 and above handsets will start adopting 5G. The second inflection point will be in the fall time frame when another set of flagship devices will adopt 5G. So that should be kind of the shape of 5G adoption through the year, and how this translates into margin is, we gave guidance for our second quarter margin. We are expecting from first to second quarter revenue will go up mid-teens and operating margins will also be in the mid-teens range in the second quarter. We are not guiding longer term margins at this point, but we will talk about it at Analyst Day as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
James Faucette:
Thank you very much. I wanted to ask kind of a follow-up to that and maybe, Cristiano, you can talk about where you see Qualcomm where it's particularly strong positioned in terms of like, if we look at flagships down through the different tiers of phones, where you've talked a lot about design wins, but where should we expect you to show up most strongly versus where may there be a bit more variety of suppliers?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question, James, We updated our design pipeline. The design pipeline is about now 230 plus 5G devices across now multiple tiers. It's up substantially since 6 months ago, and I'll answer your question in two ways. First, I think, it's been very clear that our early investments in millimeter wave have provided Qualcomm with a significant technology advantage in having the technology to maturity and we're optimistic about millimeter wave going from the United States initial launches into Korea and Japan and other markets, including being license already in Europe where Telecom Italia was the first one happening throughout 2020, that's a very good thing for Qualcomm. Having said that, I would probably say that every single launch of a flagship OEM today with the exception of Huawei, they use their own silicon, every other launch of every other OEM has been a Qualcomm Snapdragon platform, and that positioned us very well about partnering with OEMs for 5G ramp including Samsung, which we have not only launched with the traditional markets, but also I point you to the A Series, which is the second tier below the flagship that are being launching with Qualcomm globally in addition to the Galaxy Fold. So those are positive things as we think 5G transition for Qualcomm
James Faucette:
Great. And then follow-up question, maybe for Steve and Don. You mentioned that you're in ongoing negotiations with Huawei, but haven't reached any agreement as of yet. How do you think or what needs to happen to move an agreement across the line? And are we going to is -- I guess I'm wondering how China-US trade relations and potential resolution or at least a trade agreement may factor into those negotiations and conversations with Huawei?
Steve Mollenkopf:
James, it's Steve. So we continue to talk to Huawei. I would characterize the discussions as ongoing, but really nothing to report on. Obviously, we don't have the numbers. We don't have any revenue in the numbers right now for licensing revenue. In terms of how the trade discussions between the two countries impact the probability or chance that we can get a resolution, I think it's too early to tell. I think it's pretty opaque at the moment. it's good that we're talking, but there's really nothing to report on right now. And you know that the product business for us is actually quite small. We tend to be a little bit more insulated I think from the trade talks compared to maybe other companies, but too early to tell in terms of what it will mean to the licensing discussions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi, thanks for taking the question. I would just wanted to start off firstly on the -- by focusing a bit on the RF front-end opportunity. You mentioned that most of the design wins you're seeing kind of both the modem and the RF front-end go together. So just wanted to kind of get your thoughts about how you're thinking about market share in RF front-end and the early-generation 5G phones to do some of the incumbents in the space and then how should we think about sustaining that market share and kind of the second-generation, third-generation 5G phones? And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks for the question. So, we look at 5G as the key entry point for RF front-end business and we're very satisfied with the ability as we started to look into the designs with the 5G content, which are specifically sub-6 spectrum as well as millimeter wave spectrum. We actually have seen a very high percentage. Virtually, all of the 230-plus designs now for 5G content have Qualcomm modem to antenna design. We have seen in those devices, some of our existing incumbents continue to support and provide content for 4G, but the 5G position of Qualcomm is very strong. What we are very happy especially at this time, as we head into the Q2 ramp of 5G, we see now as we go into second-generation designs for these -- for the second-generation devices as well as lower tiers, we have maintained that pattern. So we're now going into design number two and design number three that maintain the 5G caught on the RF front-end and we're very happy with that development.
Samik Chatterjee:
Okay. And if I can just follow-up, you've talked extensively about the opportunity on 5G handsets. If you can help me quantify the revenue opportunity outside of handsets, be it like small cells or IoT that is also tied to 5G opportunity, but outside of handsets? Just looking for some color there.
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. So I may give you the first part of the answer, and I'll ask Akash to add. Devices and smartphones are definitely going to be the vast majority of the earnings, especially as we had in 2020 is how 5G is going to ramp. However, we are happy about the 5G traction in all of our adjacents from upgrade of Telematics in automotive to 5G, we've seen a lot of industrial IoT applications and even our small cell business is getting traction including with traditional infrastructure vendors. So we expect that to be a growth story in as we head into 2021 and '22. In '20 the ones I want to single out is CPE for mobile broadband. And that's part of a lot of the carriers deployment of 5G and fixed wireless.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi guys, congrats on the strong results and 5G color. I just wanted to see about the seasonality in the QCT side, Steve -- or QTL side, excuse me. Steve, you mentioned that you were happy it was returning to a seasonal pattern. You talked a little bit, I think Akash about what it was going to do in the fiscal second quarter. Can you just talk about the seasonality of that? Is the range that you've given in the past of kind of the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, is that the new range in kind of the weak quarters and the stronger quarters be closer to the $1.4 billion you just did? Or how should we think about that as the year progresses?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi, Ross, this is Akash. I think that's a fair way of thinking about it. We just reported actuals for the September quarter at $1.16 billion and we are guiding the December quarter at the midpoint of $1.4 billion and the March quarter at $1.1 billion. So that kind of gives you a sense of the seasonality in the business, and those are fair numbers to use to project the business going forward.
Ross Seymore:
Thanks for that. As my follow-up, perhaps one for Cristiano on the revenue per MSM side of things, just would hope to get a little more color on why is that going down sequentially in your fiscal first quarter guidance. And perhaps more importantly, it seems like it's up very nicely, almost 12% year-over-year in fiscal ' 19 and still despite that sequential decline in your fiscal first quarter is still up, the better part of 10% there. I was wondering what's driving the sequential decline, the year-over-year increases. And then, if that's all pre-5 G, how should we think about the lift off of this level?
Cristiano Amon:
All right, Ross. So our ASP per MSM has a very high sensitivity to high and premium tiers and I guess if you look at what happened in the quarter and the guide for the next one, I think consistent with what we said on the last earnings call that we're going to see the dynamic throughout the calendar year. We have seen a weaker market, weaker demand in China and that combined with Huawei gaining share in domestic China as well, that's one dynamic. The other dynamic is OEMs canceled some of the 4G flagships and moved their portfolio towards 5G getting ahead of the launch. So that created basically a change in the composition of MSM because of the high and premium tier units as we go through that transition. However, the inflection point for Q2 is where you started to see the effect and when we talk about at the 1.5 times. If anything, the guide that we provide in Q2, it contemplates the core market environment, the typical seasonality of our business, no significant changes in OEM share and does not include yet the ramp of the Apple business, you will see that change just with the 1.5 which in average has higher ASP content on the modem plus the RF front-end.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thank you very much. Good afternoon. Congratulation Akash. I guess, Steve, my first question is around the 5G unit numbers that you gave for calendar '20, I guess the midpoint that you guys have laid out is 200 million units. Maybe you could give a little color on what you're assuming the geographic mix of those units is, in particular, what percentage might be China versus rest of world? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi Matt, this is Akash. So the way we thought about the 5G forecast for 2020 is a couple of ways. We looked at the tops-down of how transitions have typically happened in previous generations. And the one - - the two things that are different with 5G versus transition from 3G to 4G is China is adopting 5G at the same time as the other geographies versus in 4G they were a couple of years late. And then also within 5G, we are seeing multiple tiers of products being launched simultaneously, which we did not have for 4G. So that's why we think the intensity of the 5G rollout is actually faster and you have China as a big portion of it happening early in the lifecycle. Of course, in addition to that, we are obviously talking to all of our OEM customers and we have a very good sense of how many devices they are planning to launch over the next and several months with 5G and at what price points and that also allows us to inform our tops-down forecast.
Matt Ramsay:
Got it, that's really helpful. As my follow-up a quick one for Alex on the licensing agreements and obviously we're all encouraged to see the progress you've made on 5G. There has also been this dynamic of SEP-only licenses become a bigger piece of the mix and some implications for the implied royalty rate. I know that moves around a bit, but I think you guys talked about in an answer to an earlier question about how to model the QTL business going forward. I wonder if we're now at relative steady state for implied royalty rates as we go forward? Any comments there would be helpful. Thank you.
Alex Rogers:
So, I think that may be a fair way to look at it, but I think what -- the way you should look at it for guidance is we're guiding revenue. And so, as we noted, we're going to see seasonality and we're going to see the remaining quarters at the range that we identified, and of course, that's without the Huawei numbers, but we have made really good progress with signing up 5G agreements. We have over 75 agreements now in place since we started our 5G licensing program. So I think that reflects a very strong IP position. But I think again, if you look to our guidance on revenue, that's probably the easiest way to think about it.
Akash Palkhiwala:
And Matt, this is a Akash. Just a quick reminder that our revenue guidance numbers does not include Huawei. So as that gets resolved, that would be incremental to the range.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Thanks for taking my questions. Around the March quarter on QCT guide. So units in March quarter for MSM units are typically down seasonally, you're obviously guiding revenues up mid-teens on the 5G ramp. So is that all or even maybe more than 100% due to increases in revenue per MSM, like is it with the 5G ramp itself and content is enough to offset the normal seasonal decline in unit shipments? Or are you seeing kind of like an ending of the flush that we've been having and maybe a reversal with some fillers when the new products get in. How do we think about that unit versus ASP trend in that -- embedded in that March quarter revenue guide for chipsets?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, hi, Stacy. So there are couple of factors. This is Akash by the way. There are couple of factors that affect our second quarter numbers for units and ASP. You're correct about the seasonal -- seasonally lower quarter, but that is also offset by a stronger mix because we launched our new premium tier chip and new high tier chip during that quarter as well. So there is a mix implication before we get to the 5G benefit. And then the third factor is our -- what we have disclosed previously, which is with 5G devices on a like-for-like device basis, we expect 1.5x monetization as a combination of the chipset and the RF front-end revenue on top of it. So those are kind of the three factors that impact the volume and price revenue per MSM mix in that quarter.
Stacy Rasgon:
Thanks. And maybe just a follow-up on that. So, you mentioned 1.5 times content increase, but at the same time, you also mentioned multiple tiers launching simultaneously, which is something we didn't really see in 4G. So how do we think about that, I guess that -- that differential of those drivers on content increase overall versus the general, a mix of tiers that are launching, and do you think that is enough to keep revenue per MSM rising through 2020 -- through fiscal 2020 as 5G becomes more mainstream?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, so the way we think about the 1.5x is really for a given tier device, so comparing a premium tier to a premium tier device, when you go from 5G -- 4G to 5 G, the revenue opportunity increases by 1.5x. And then this would also apply to the tiers as it penetrates further down, and so you should, you should think of that as a mechanism of modeling our business as the mix improves from 4G to 5G
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mitch Steves:
Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to focus a little bit back just on the pricing you guys are getting. So I realized this to be down a little bit in December quarter. But, so two really clarifications. If Huawei does come back, would you get an implied ASP that goes up or down? And then secondly, how do we think about that kind of ramping over the next 12 months. I mean, I think most models have it going up a few dollars. But is that rate still or do you guys think it needs to be changed after seeing the mix come through?
Alex Rogers:
So, this is Alex. You're asking about on the licensing side or is --
Mitch Steves:
Yes.
Alex Rogers:
Okay. Look, again, the way we think about it is that -- Akash maybe weigh in here, the way we think about it is that Huawei is incremental and I'm not sure what more to say to that other than what we've already provided by way of guide.
Mitch Steves:
Okay. I guess, maybe we should return to Huawei piece that if that comes back is that, are you going to be increasing ASPs, or you think that the ASPs will be flattish or similar?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, the way -- this is Akash, Mitch. The way you should think about Huawei is we don't have Huawei units or revenue contemplated in the QTL guide at this point. So when Huawei gets included into the guide, it would be based on what their device ASP is and our licensing deal with them. So it will just fall out of the agreement that we end up having with Huawei.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes, hi guys, thanks for the question. I wanted to just go back to the progress of 5G and particularly millimeter wave attach. And I wonder, Cristiano, if you could talk a little bit about -- of the 230 wins or maybe Steve, you want to address this, how many of those have millimeter waves attached to them or at least some version of them? And then as we get to the flagship launches at the beginning of next year, kind of proportionally, how does it look? And then as we get to the end of next year, how does that look? Do we do we get to most phones by beginning of next year having millimeter wave attach or some smaller proportion? Could you just walk us through that and then I have a follow-up.
Cristiano Amon:
Rod, thanks for the question. So the way to think about it, it's pretty much at this point by market, for example, the United States market, all of the devices they have launched, there is a requirement for millimeter wave that the spectrum utilized by all of the three of the four carriers right now and therefore we have seen the initial launches of millimeter wave. Going into 2020, the current planning assumption is you're going to start to see millimeter wave also coming in the Korean market, is going to come into the Japan market, and in the later part of '20 and beginning 2021, you start to see that in Europe. And that's how it's going to change the mix. So right now, you should look at some of the China launches that we're going to see in '20, they're all going to be sub-6,and the Europe in '22 first half will be sub-6, Japan, Korea, and United States are going to have millimeter wave. That's how to think about it.
Rod Hall:
And is it your -- Cristiano, just to follow that up, is it your assumption then or our assumption should be that every market that has millimeter wave deployed in the wireless network, you would expect to see millimeter wave attach to most phones in that market. Is that correct?
Cristiano Amon:
That's correct. Especially because you have in the wireless industry today you have probably a single SKU launched by an operator within their entire geography, even if you're going to have some markets with millimeter wave, some markets with sub-6, that has been the requirement of a millimeter wave capability in many of those 5G devices.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking the question. I guess to follow-up on the last question, as you think about the 200 million 5G unit market plus or minus in 2020, what percentage do you believe will have millimeter waves? And then as part of that question, can you kind of talk through the tax rate that you're seeing on RF front-end for you guys at sub-6 versus millimeter wave. I would assume a much higher rate there on millimeter.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Hi, let me answer in reverse order. So, on the Snapdragon platform today, the attach rate on millimeter wave in sub-6 is the same. I think we have modem to antenna designs including RF front-end in all of the Snapdragon. There are very few exceptions, and sometimes exception is just one or another band and is very small quantities. I will say the absolutely majority of the devices, we've been winning RF front-end across millimeter wave and sub-6, is not unique to millimeter wave. However, millimeter wave drives a lot more content because unlike sub-6 you need multiple antenna modules and multiple RF change of millimeter wave. So the content is disproportionately higher on the millimeter wave side.
Akash Palkhiwala:
C.J., on the mix of sub-6 versus millimeter wave within the 200 million, at this point, we're not disclosing a mix really. But the way to best think about it is what as Cristiano mentioned earlier, is by market and so there are certain markets, US and then Japan and Korea next year, where millimeter wave would be required from an operator perspective. And so those markets would have millimeter wave. So the best way to think about it is a mix of markets
C.J. Muse:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question
Timothy Arcuri:
Hi, thanks. I wanted to just clarify the answer that you had to a prior question on the March guidance for QCT. So are you basically implying that units are going to maybe be seasonal plus just [indiscernible] and most of the increase in QCT revenue in March is ASP. Is that right?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes, I think the units will have kind of the regular cadence of seasonality, maybe with some increase that's driven by 5G launches, but primarily it will be a mix of the tier mix within the chips we have and then also the 4G versus 5G mix.
Timothy Arcuri:
Okay. And then I guess just following on to that then if you're not getting much of the unit benefit yet in March, obviously you're going to eventually have to see that unit benefit. So, how sustainable is the growth in QCT revenue into fiscal Q3 when you would I would think see much more of the unit growth in that quarter? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
So from a market perspective, the way we are planning our business going forward is, we're assuming the current market dynamics hold, and within that, our benefit as the transition happens to 5G and then so that's -- that should be the basis for the assumptions for next year. Now, as we have both kind of initial set of 5G launches happen and then additional 5G all launches happen across flagship models later in the year, we will see our operating margin ramp in addition to revenue per MSM as we see the benefit of 5G going through our portfolio.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson:
Yes, thanks very much. Cristiano, I just have a couple of questions, maybe first up on the 5G outlook for calendar 2020. You're talking about 200 million units at the midpoint. And I know other chipmakers who have reported in the last week or so were talking more like 300 million units globally for 5G next year. I just wanted to sort of delve in a little bit into your assumptions. Are you expecting the large flagship launches next year to be only 5G or do you expect global flagships to also be 4G in that outlook? And anything you can tell us about what your assumptions are for China within that 5G outlook you've given would be very helpful. Thanks.
Cristiano Amon:
Excellent question, so let me break that down. As we said earlier in this earnings call, I think Akash also mentioned this. We are assuming existing market dynamics. And I think that's why you probably see us in a more conservative estimate. If you believe that there is a pent-up demand for 5G devices and it's kind of consistent with other transitions, you could have a change in replacement rates and that's going to drive a bigger market, bigger market is even better news for Qualcomm. So we're just assuming existing market dynamics in our projections. Now, going back to the outlook in '20, we talk a lot about the dynamics on Q2, but maybe to add to the prior question, you should expect as we get into the second half of '20, then we're going to see the addition of Apple volumes and so that's, you should think about really a 5G ramp for Qualcomm in 2020. Your last question is about China. The order of magnitude of deployment in China is significant in we said during the script that it's now the projection is 1 million [indiscernible] or base stations by 2020. That's going to drive a very aggressive migration. So China could also be upside if the market dynamics don't hold and you have higher replacement rates, and also if you assume that the current Huawei share gains in China, which we're assuming as our going assumption if that changes and get to some more normal levels, that's upside as well.
Brett Simpson:
And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow up here, just to clarify on the RF front-end side, when you talk about modem to antenna in 5G, are you also including 4G modules, 4G RF modules, like low band, mid high band etcetera? Or are you really talking about ultra high band RF and also just on millimeter wave because I know there's a lot of investors questioning the viability of millimeter wave at the moment. What are you doing in your second-generation millimeter wave platforms to improve things like battery life, or how do we think performance is going to pick up here? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Okay, maybe I'll -- two questions. Let me try to go quickly to them. So the first one is we have been very focused in 5G as the entry point. So we have been winning RF front-end in the 5G mid bands, and the 3.5 bands in some cases, and some of the reform bands as well at lower frequencies as well as millimeter wave. It's both. We continue to see the incumbents providing the 4G, but I pointed to what we're going to see in 2020 especially with dynamic spectrum sharing is going to be the re-farming of existing 4G bands, and we expect that to be an expansion of our existing 5G RF front-end solution. So that was the first question. If you -- can you remind me the second question -- on the millimeter wave performance. Yes. So as we launched a new technology, there is a lot of features that come across the device and the infrastructure and they don't come all day one. So some of the initial I think battery life or even terminal, that was experienced by millimeter wave in the first-generation chipsets, they've already been addressed with software updates and we've seen a full day battery life on existing first-generation chipset. As we go to the second-generation Snapdragon, we see with across process node and evolution of our modern technology also significant improvements in battery life area for the millimeter wave footprint as well as terminals.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Srini [ph] with SMBC. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you. Couple of follow-ups actually. I guess first on the 5G ASP boost. There has been a lot of talk about the chipset ASP boost, but I'm just curious, I mean do you see any benefit on the QTL side, I know, I think most of the 4G premium phones are probably already hitting your cap, but as we transition to 5G, what sort of benefit, if any, do you see on the QTL side?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi Srini, this is Akash. When -- again kind of going back to history, what has happened from 3G to 4G and previous generations. We have seen typically an increase in replacement rates and an increase in ASPs when we go to a new generation. So that is certainly something that is possible and maybe even likely with 5G. For our business planning purposes, we are, as we said earlier, we are planning based on a market being consistent and then within that having a transition to 5G. So that could be an upside opportunity for us. That's not included. And then, you could also see users with low and mid-tier devices upgrade and buy higher tier devices because of the increased capability that 5G brings and that could help QTL ASPs as well, but again, that is not modeled into our business at this point.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And one quick point with our early R&D and IP leadership, it's just a really good context for driving new agreements.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. And then Akash, on the margin front, at QCT, I know you said the margins will improve over the next few quarters. But my question is on a like-for-like basis, does 5G give you better margins? Meaning, if I go back to the second half of 2017, I think you hit your 20% and 21% EBIT margin for QCT at that time. Your revenue run rate was close to $1 billion. So when we get back to that kind of revenue run rate, do you expect the margins to be higher than the 20%, 21%?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Yes. So Srini, at this point, we are not disclosing kind of separate margins for our 4G versus our 5G business or a specific target for long-term margins. But this is something we will address at Analyst Day. So if you can stay tuned for a couple of weeks and we'll plan to address it there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Vijay Rakesh:
Yes. Just wondering -- just looking at the RF front-end wins that you're seeing into next year, if you could give us exiting calendar '20, what you see would be the mix of RFFE within your QCT or could you give us some dollar number on what you think your RFFE would be? Thanks.
Akash Palkhiwala:
Hi, thanks for the question. We're not really breaking that down, but we did provide that metric of 1.5 times that include both the ASP increase in a 5G modem as well as our RF front-end content in average per tier.
Vijay Rakesh:
Got it. And on the QCT side, I know you guys talked about a nice pickup with the mix going to 5G. What kind of ASP assumptions that you assuming on that as you go through 2020 especially as you might have some other merchant suppliers entering the market? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Well, the way to think about it is, we always have competition and there is nothing that we see in the market on the competitive side that is different than we expected and that is factored in our projections.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Walsh with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Walsh, Your line is live. You may proceed with your question.
Patrick Walsh:
Sorry about that. I had it on mute. I just had two quick questions. So the first question on the RF side, when you hear the traditional RF players, Qorvo Skyworks talk, they talk about a change in RF content from either 18 to 20 going to 25. And so my question for you, it seems like, initially you guys are focused more on that incremental $5 to $7. Is that a fair assessment and is the majority of that $5 to $7 made up by millimeter wave? And then if we think about that core 18 to 20 that's been historically there, are you really aiming for these kind of re-farmed band, and then I guess within the bands, can you -- do you have -- I know you have bought capacity via TDK, I wouldn't imagine it's too much just given that [indiscernible] and Qorvo have probably I think 80% of the capacity out there. So would you be targeting more like low-band paths?
Akash Palkhiwala:
Patrick, in terms of kind of the ASP question you asked, I think the examples you were quoting was for a premium tier device. Really, as you look at different regions and you look at different frequency bands in a given region and tier of device, those numbers could be vastly different. So I think it's very difficult to generalize in terms of ASP advantages. The way you should think about that is, there is a certain market for RF front-end that exists. With 5G coming in, that is going to expand, and that's going to create an opportunity for us to significantly improve our share in the market. And then on top of that, as Cristiano mentioned, as DSS happens, dynamic spectrum sharing and bands get re-farmed to 5G, we'll be able to participate and further expand our revenue opportunity. So that's kind of the framework you should use.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes, thank you. I just want to thank the team -- the Qualcomm team for their hard work and the great execution through 2019. 2020 is the year of 5G. I want to thank everybody for their hard work, we're on the cusp of it, and I'm very excited about it. But thanks everybody, see you next time.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 31, 2019. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13692366. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you. And good afternoon everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Dave Wise. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com. And a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from, QUALCOMM's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio. And good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We executed well this quarter, against challenging industry conditions. Despite weakening demand for our 4G solutions, fiscal third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.80 per share was at the high end of our guidance range, driven by improved product margins, lower R&D and SG& A and a lower tax rate. In QTL, following the district court's ruling, our licensees continue to perform under their agreements. In parallel, at the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, we are pursuing a partial stay in appealing the ruling. Of note, with a statement of interest of the Department of Justice in support of our stay motion, stating that Qualcomm is likely to succeed on the merits in the appeal. The Huawei export ban, along with the pivot from 4G to 5G which accelerated over the past couple of months, has contributed to industry conditions particularly in China that we expect will create headwinds in our next two fiscal quarters. As a result of the export ban, Huawei shifted their emphasis to building market share in the domestic China market, where we do not see the corresponding benefit in product or licensing revenue. In addition, our customers in the China market are working through their existing 4G inventory and deemphasizing their second half 2019 4G launches, as they shift their priorities to their 5G launches in early 2020. As a result, we do not expect the typical seasonal benefits given this unique market dynamics. For the first calendar quarter of 2020, we anticipate reaching the inflection point as our financial results begin to reflect the benefits of our substantial efforts over the years to bring 5G to the market worldwide. Let me walk you through the dynamics of 5G rollouts. 5G network rollouts are progressing at a much faster rate when compared to 4G. We expect over 20 operators to launch 5G service and over 20 OEMs to have 5G devices in the first 12 months after the first commercial launch. This compares to four operators and three OEMs with the launch of 4G with the major difference being that China is launching 5G in the first year. In China, 5G commercial service was officially approved in early June and our current estimate is that by the end of this year, the three operators will deploy roughly 100,000 5G base stations, which to put in context is the equivalent of the scale of the entire network of a large US wireless operator. And in the US, 5G is being deployed across sub-6 and millimeter wave for nationwide coverage. Verizon has noted that they expect three quarters of the phones they are launching next year will be 5G. AT&T announced that they are on track for a nationwide 5G coverage in midyear 2020 and we expect the proposed T-Mobile-Sprint merger to result in an accelerated nationwide 5G rollout. I would add, that we expect the millimeter wave to be a mandatory requirement at all major carriers in the United States. Also helping to drive this accelerated transition to 5G is dynamic spectrum sharing which enables carriers to dynamically repurpose 4G spectrum for 5G use. DSS is a game changer for the carriers and will result in a much more rapid proliferation of 5G than we have seen in prior G transitions. Before I talk about our products, I would like to remind you of our contribution to develop the fundamental elements of 5G including innovations that enable massive MIMO, millimeter wave, security and the deployment of 5G technologies in networks across broad spectrum allocations. This early work has resulted in a valuable IP portfolio and provided us with an early insight into what products need to be developed and commercialized at scale. This will continue as 5G expands beyond Release 15 and the feature sets continue to evolve. Today, we are the only chipset vendor that has 5G system level solutions spanning both sub-6, gigahertz and millimeter wave bands. This is key to global deployment. Our 5G system level solutions span baseband, transceiver, RF front end and antenna elements as the components are tightly coupled together for best in class performance spanning multiple KPIs including power area and modem benchmarks. Let me now give us an update on our OEM traction. All of the major Android OEMs have announced 5G devices for this year and as volume ramps in early 2020; device offerings will expand beyond premium tier devices. As an example, China Mobile plans to drive 5G devices to price points under a US dollar equivalent of $300 by the end of 2020, representing about 40% of the Chinese smartphone segment by price band. Our Chinese customers have recently made product portfolio decisions consistent with that carrier objective to drive 5G into lower price bands. On the product side, our 5G design wins have doubled since our last earnings call. We now have over 150 5G designs launched or in development using our 5G chipsets. In addition to core chipsets, virtually all our 5G design wins are powered by our complete RF front-end solutions for 5G sub-6 and millimetre wave. We are the only company today delivering an end to end comprehensive modem to antenna solutions. The complexity of 5G and the value of innovative solutions enables us to expand our ASPs significantly from 4G. Turning to more detail on our legal matters. On July 8, we filed our motion for a partial stay with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. And as you may have seen, the Department of Justice on behalf of the United States filed a statement of interest that supports our request. We cannot predict the exact timing, but we expect the Court of Appeals to rule in our stay motion in the near future. In the meantime, as can be seen from our results this quarter, licensees continue to perform under their agreements, consistent with our view, that the District Court decision does not nullify the existing license agreements. On our appeal on the merits of the FTC matter, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals granted their request for an expedited briefing schedule. We expect briefing to be complete by the end of the calendar year. And the court has said it will schedule the case for oral arguments on the next available hearing date, after briefing is completed. With regards to Huawei, we continue to pursue a negotiated resolution of the dispute, focused on a final agreement. Turning to QCT, on July 15, we announced our Qualcomm Snapdragon, 855 Plus mobile platform, providing about 1 billion mobile gamers, a leading flagship option for pro-like gaming devices. Expanding on our China relationships, we are pleased to announce a strategic cooperation with Tencent, to deliver premium 5G and gaming experiences to consumers and developers in China and other regions. This cooperation includes joint efforts on Snapdragon-based mobile gaming devices, Snapdragon Elite gaming, cloud gaming, AR, VR and always-connected PCs. We continue to execute on our growth opportunities across automotive, AR/VR, connectivity and networking and IoT. In compute, we are on track to see the first Snapdragon 8cx based designs, to launch in the second half of calendar year 2019. In summary, while near term demand trends are not surprisingly soft as the entire market and industry transitions to 5G, we are very excited with our design wins and growth in device content as 5G ramps, particularly into 2020. Put simply, our position at the center of developing this incredible technology represents a large opportunity for our stockholders. I would now like to turn the call over to Dave.
Dave Wise:
Thank you Steve. And good afternoon, everyone. We delivered third quarter GAAP revenues of $9.6 billion which included $4.7 billion related to the settlement with Apple and its contract manufacturers. GAAP EPS was negatively impacted by a $2.5 billion non-cash charge to income tax expense due to a write-off of a deferred tax asset, resulting from recently issued US tax regulations. Our non-GAAP revenues were $4.9 billion despite top line softness. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.80 at the high end of our guidance range due to better QCT gross margins, lower combined R&D and SG&A expenses and a better-than-expected tax rate. During the quarter, SG&A expenses benefited from a faster than expected reduction in excess litigation expense. QCT delivered revenues of $3.6 billion on 156 million MSM shipments, below the midpoint of our guidance range given a larger-than-expected impact from market weakness. QCT's EBT margin was 14% in line with our guidance reflecting improvements in both gross margins and lower operating expenses. QTL's third quarter revenues of $1.3 billion came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range, and included both current period Apple royalties and the last $150 million interim payment from Huawei. Our third quarter QTL results reflect the view that post the ruling in the FTC case, our licensing agreements remain enforceable and our licensees are expected to perform under their agreements which they have done to date. QTL's EBT margin was 70% above the high end of our guidance range on lower operating expenses due to a faster than anticipated reduction in excess litigation expense. Turning to our outlook. As Steve mentioned, as we look forward over the next couple of quarters, our business is being impacted by several factors in advance of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020. We see continued weakness in China demand, Huawei gaining share inside of China and our Chinese OEMs managing their inventory ahead of 5G. We are lowering our estimates for global 3G, 4G, 5G device shipments in calendar 2019 by 100 million units to a range of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion. We now expect handsets shipments to be down mid-single digits year-over-year. In China, through the June quarter, while device shipments from handset makers into the carriers and retailers was down only 5%, the device sell-through from carriers and retailers to consumers was more pronounced, down approximately 20% year-over-year, reflecting in part a pause by consumers ahead of 5G and an uncertain macro environment. As a result, we have seen a meaningful build in channel inventory during the first half of calendar year 2019. Over the next two quarters, we expect a significant impact on device shipment as sell-in and sell-through growth rates realign and channel inventory levels are drawn down in China. In other regions including North America and Europe, we are seeing lengthening of handset replacement rates impacting unit volumes, as well as some softness in India and in non-handset devices. Further, as a result of the trade dispute, our business is being impacted by a shift in OEM share towards Huawei as they increase their focus on domestic China sales and to a lesser extent by the loss of the direct sales to Huawei affected by the trade ban. Lastly, we are seeing our Chinese OEMs respond to these factors by pulling back on new 4G device orders and managing their inventory in advance of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020. Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter guidance. We expect revenues to be in the range of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.65 to $0.75. For QCT, we estimate MSM shipments to be in the range of 140 million to 160 million units, down 4% sequentially at the midpoint. Historically, we have seen mid teens percentage growth in MSM shipments from our third to fourth fiscal quarter reflecting normal seasonal strength in the latter part of the year as OEMs build for the upcoming holiday season. The estimated lower MSM shipments in our fourth quarter are being impacted by the factors I just described. The China related weakness is particularly impactful to QCT revenue subject to our leading position with a Chinese OEMs in the premium and high tiers. We estimate QCT's EBT margins for the fourth fiscal quarter will be 13% to 15%, flat sequentially at the midpoint. We estimate QTL revenues will be in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion with EBT margins of 62% to 66%, down sequentially versus the third quarter. Our fourth quarter forecast does not include any revenues from Huawei with the last interim $150 million payment, recognized in the third quarter. Similarly to QCT, QTL is not seeing the seasonal uptick in our fourth fiscal quarter, reflecting weaker device shipments. We expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expense to be down 1% to 3% sequentially, reflecting the absence of the catch-up and employee bonus expense that occurred in our third quarter offset by an increase in R&D spend. We plan to remain disciplined around cost management and expect operating expenses to increase slightly from our fourth quarter run rate as revenues ramp through fiscal 2020. We estimate our fourth quarter a GAAP tax rate to be 16% and our non-GAAP tax rate to be 13%. We believe the 13% rate is a good proxy for both our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates going forward. As an update on our share repurchase activity as of today, we have completed approximately 90% of the ASRs at an average price of approximately $64 per share. As a reminder, we expect to complete the ASRs in early September. We are estimating 1.21 billion weighted average shares outstanding for the fourth fiscal quarter and expect to exit the fiscal year with approximately 1.16 billion shares outstanding post the completion of the ASRs. Looking beyond the quarter, we expect these market headwinds impacting our business to continue through the remainder of the calendar year and expect our revenues and earnings in our fiscal first quarter of 2020 will be in a range similar to our fourth quarter forecast. We are optimistic that 5G will be a catalyst to market improvement with broader rollouts of 5G networks globally, including the US, China, Europe, Korea, Japan and Australia. We expect 5G device volumes to ramp more meaningfully in early calendar 2020 with new flagship device launches from global and Chinese OEMs supporting 5G. In QCT, as we transition to 5G, our addressable dollar content opportunity per device is up to 1.5 times greater than a comparable 4G device, given greater chipset complexity and our ability to capture 5G RF front-end content. We remain confident in the incremental $2 of EPS related to the longer term contribution from the agreements signed with Apple as product shipments ramp. And one final comment, we will be hosting an Analyst and Investor Day in New York on November 19 this year. Please stay tuned for further details. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Dave. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
James Faucette:
Great. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask, you’ve mentioned that a couple of different forces that are impacting demand for QCT right now, both Huawei's more internal focus on China as well as pause in demand ahead of 5G. Can you talk a little bit about how that is impacting, not only unit volumes but the pricing and mix currently? And then how you're looking at the impact on at least qualitatively your anticipation for 5G volumes et cetera next year, especially since we seem to be coming off of a lower base? Then as a follow-up, can you just talk a little bit more and give a little more color on how you may be handling any requests for renegotiation for the FTC ruling and what the roadmap is that you’ve laid out for those licensees in terms of treating those requests and dealing with compliance in the interim? Thank you.
Dave Wise:
This is Dave. Let me start and Cristiano will jump in. So if you think about the dynamics in the market we called down the market 100 million units, a meaningful portion of that is related to China where we’re seeing softness. We referenced in the comments the sell-through market to consumers being down 20% year-over-year through the first half of calendar ‘19 and our sell-in down 5%. So we see the back half of the year, a conversion of those growth rates so the sell-in rates coming down more aggressively in the back half of the year. That in the back half of the year is compounded by some runoff of channel inventory that's been built up over the first half as well. And so some pronounced impacts on really Q3 with respect to the channel inventory runoff. And so we think that the market dynamics in the market units flow out a little bit in Q3 and then hitting our Q4 and our fiscal Q1 as those dynamics play out. And the way to think about how that impacts the business is first you think about QCT. We typically would see from a seasonal perspective maybe a 15% to 17% increase in MSM shipments as we move from Q3 to Q4. I mean, obviously, we guided down 4%. So if you think about jumping off from 156 million MSMs in Q3 that gap from what we normally expect to see is about 35 million units. About two thirds of that is market related with China being a meaningful component of that. I would point out that a lot of the China dynamics and certainly the things related to pause before 5G are more premium and high tier dynamics that are more impactful from a revenue perspective for us. And the other third would be really share shifts, there's OEM share shifts towards Huawei away from some of our OEMs, as well as a little bit of a share loss at the low tier, but that's not really sort of financially impactful. So that's I think the way to think about the impacts on the next quarter to hear.
Cristiano Amon:
Jim, this is Cristiano. Just to add some additional color. So building what Dave had said, if you remember I think China got authorization to launch 5G back in the June. And so there was a lot of uncertainty whether they will launch or not given the environment they did the launch. And what we’re seeing to some counterintuitive, but actually building confidence on the 5G transition as we had some of the OEMs cancel some of the 4G launches and moving their portfolio towards 5G designs. We’re seeing a lot of requests for pulling in and we see preparing for the 5G ramp at the next selling season. And one we do have this I would say onetime impact as Huawei demand got suddenly reduced in Europe there we saw an increased focus of Huawei in China. That kind of changed the OEM mix. But the general sentiment and that's what we're seeing in the activity is to drive as fast as possible to the 5G ramp as we bleed this inventory on the premium and high end channel and we see 5G ramping across multiple tiers as Steve said even at the price points of $300 and above.
Alex Rogers:
Jim, this is Alex. On the second part of your question, how we're handling requests for renegotiations. As you may have seen we had a number of request for renegotiations coming. We've also had license agreements that were in the process of renegotiation recently. And with respect to those requests, we’re ensuring essentially what we call a FRAND process that the licensee has an opportunity to drive to a fair reasonable and non-discriminatory result in any license agreement that's ultimately reached. And so we’re engaging as we always do very thoroughly with licensees to try to get to a process that recognizes the value of our portfolio. We think -- which we think is a very, very good as 5G ramps.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. I guess first question is on the sell-through versus the sell-in expectations over the next couple of quarters and understand what you guys said on the revenue expectations for you that take into account some of the inventory adjustment that's going on. What are your expectations for sell-through? Does it stay at this sort of down 20% year-on-year rate as we get into the 5G transition at the beginning of next year? What's embedded in the guidance?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yeah. Essentially what's in our guide is we’re not expecting to sell-through to remain low through the rest of the calendar year reflecting as we said sort of some of the macro environment, but also really some of the pause before 5G ramps more meaningfully next year. So we expect that to remain low and then the sell-in to start to converge towards that over the remainder of the year. And then that's just as we said compounded by the fact that there's been some channel inventory build - built in the first half that will bleed off that’s more of a Q3 probably factor.
Chris Caso:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. As a follow-up, I guess we all understand that you're hoping to get a stay in the FTC ruling. Could you lay out for us what the contingency plans are in the event that a stay is not granted? What are the steps that would need to be taken and what would be the financial impact of having to take those steps before appeal is finally decided?
Don Rosenberg:
Hi. Chris, this is Don Rosenberg. As you know, we are smack in the middle of the Court of Appeals reviewing our motion for a stay. So we’re limited in what we can say about that. But I should point out, I don't think it's missed your eyes that it's fairly widespread consensus that Judge Koh’s order is erroneous in many, many respects. And the fact that United States, the Justice Department through the - with the support of the Department of Defense and Department of Energy have filed a brief - statement of interest rather in support of our motion to stay, in which among other things they objected both to the remedy, but also indicating that they think we’re going to be successful on the merits. In addition the Court of Appeals has expedited their review of our appeal on the merits. And so I think we’re very encouraged by this kind of support, we think as I said that there is a widespread view that our chances are very good. So we’re at the point where we want to wait for that decision on the stay and then proceed from there.
Alex Rogers:
This is Alex. I’ll just add very quickly. One of the, I think fundamental points that can't be missed is that the current agreements are valid and enforceable even the FTC has waited and said that the agreements are not nullified, and so that's very important. In addition we have a couple of what I would call anchor agreements that are very good agreements that we're quite happy with and that's Samsung and the recently signed Apple agreement. And as I said our IP position is very, very strong through 4G and ramping into 5G.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could comment on Apple purchased Intel's modem and then as you think longer here, it sounds like Huawei's focusing more on post this ban – attempted ban here, focusing more internal on their modem. I know you shift to a portion of that, so I'm kind of curious. Any view on how this Apple purchase affects the $2 you guys talked about? And then can you just comment on Huawei and if they gain share and do more in-sourcing, the opportunities for you as you go into 5G?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Blayne this is Steve. I'll handle the first one and Christiano I think is going to jump in onto Huawei question. I would say in terms of the recent news flow, it's really - I think that was pretty highly anticipated. It was clearly anticipated in the agreement that we did. Remember we did two agreements a patent license agreement as well as a product agreement, multiyear product agreement. We don't see anything changing in terms of our ability to deliver on those agreements and we think it still remains a pretty competitive at least attractive competitive dynamic for us when you look at industry and our roadmap versus others even after those agreements expire. And I think very clearly in answer to your question we don't see any impact to the $2 number that we have put out there.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. This is Cristiano. So on the Huawei, Huawei has been in a number of years that their premium and high tier has been focused on their own. And I think our shipments to Huawei so kind of that mid-to low tier pair. But I look at the Huawei focus on China a little different; I think it creates an opportunity for our customer base coming out of China companies like Vivo, Oppo, OnePlus, and Xiaomi, outside China especially in Europe that's accretive to us especially in the 5G transition. And we look that opportunity is probably permanent not one-time. I think the interest on the European carriers have been very high. And when some data came out that we’re very pleased that show since we're kind of generations ahead on our 5G chip, I think the latest report show that the Huawei modem is at least 50% bigger in area than the first generation QCT. I think, we had compete with many other companies throughout the years and we’re optimistic about that lead we have in 5G. And hopefully, that will drive a good transition for us to look for customers in China including competing with Huawei in domestic China as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Samik Chatterjee:
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to start off with - kind of question on 5G. You're clearly excited about your position in 5G, but as you kind of think about the impact on the smartphone industry you’re expecting volumes to improve, but lowering the cost of solution also there’s probably going to a big driver. So how you are seeing kind of the progress on that front? And just as a follow-up, I think you mentioned kind of plenty of operations you expect to launch 5G. Can you just help us think about the mix of sub-six versus millimetre wave? And you mentioned you would expect the millimeter wave to be mandatory kind of what's driving your view there given what we hear is the infrastructure is not really ready to support millimeter-wave in most geographies yet? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Samik, this is Steve. Maybe I'll take the first one and Cristiano will jump in a bit on the RF components. I would say, I look at the 5G rollout in general has a higher intensity and a more global nature than what we saw even in 4G. So the pressure that we are getting to accelerate not only the premium tier, but also higher tier devices is pretty amazing. If you were to look China Mobile came out with a data point that said essentially RMB 2,000 devices roughly $300 phone that will be where they're going to target the 5G line next year pretty substantial by the end of the year. That's pretty substantial move. I would expect at the beginning of the year, which is what really focused on right now, you'll start to see that line be somewhere close to the RMB 3,000 so roughly $430 price point. That's pretty significant actually. And it's anticipated in our roadmap in terms of our integration. You may have seen us and remember that we have talked about how we have been moving our 5G into an integrated roadmap even more quickly than we did in 4G. Now two things happened to us that I think are beneficial in addition to just a good a dynamics that happen when you have transitions in technology. One is because the complexity of 5G goes up the ASP of the baseband, we tend to have an attractive move just from the ASP baseband alone tier-to-tier. So 4G same tier to 5G same tier. The ASP the baseband is good for us. Secondly, we see a strong opportunity in the RF to grow the content of the device. As you know, we have had strong traction there in part because of the importance of wrapping the system design around the antenna. You will see consistent with the design that I mentioned or the feature that I mentioned dynamic spectrum sharing you'll see an opportunity to extend of those 5G RF design opportunities into the legacy 4G bands as they are effectively dynamically reformed with that feature. So we see a continued roadmap for us to continue – to grow content per device and that's why we've been investing so heavily to put that in place. It's in a place now, and the real activity is for us is how quickly can we get this to ramp and can we do it worldwide. So we are pleased with that, I would say the dynamics. And we have a lot of visibility to that. We have a lot of confidence that we think that we'll be able to do it.
Alex Rogers:
Hi. So Cristiano, just to answer your question on sub-6 and millimeter wave mix. So millimeter wave right now is a requirement across all the main carriers in United States. I think we saw phones again launch the millimeter wave, and in 2020, we'll see that in Korea and Japan. So if you look at developed economies, I think of Japan market, Korea market and the States market require millimeter wave. That will be no high attached in terms of the total 5G volumes. But it's not stopping there. So Europe that is launching with sub-6 millimeter wave has already been auctioned in Italy. And it is a now likely to get license in the UK as well. So 5G's really been designed for the combination of sub-6 and millimeter wave. And we are optimistic about millimeter wave attach increasing. One other thing to mention is, sub-6 in general, we will see in ‘20 a lot of reforming on existing spectrum because of the dynamic spectrum sharing technology. So that also create opportunity for us to expand our RF front-end that today is focused on 5G, these new sub-6 bands and millimeter wave to also add the reform bands and so that's how we think about the RF.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys. When you say that there is slowdown in the 4G versus 5G, is it only China-specific? Or can give the global context of this comment? It's just hard for me to believe that there is any slowdown in Europe or the US because of 5G. So I want to understand it? Second can you comment on relationship with Apple, post the acquisition of Intel's modem business by Apple? How do you view it? And what’s - where do you see yourself kind of in the future playing with Apple, kind of how do you work with Apple, given that they're going to have a modem asset in-house? Thanks.
Dave Wise:
This is Dave. I'll start. So let me start with China. So we are seeing a pause or a slowing in terms of 4G orders in advance of 5G in China. Really there is a number of – as we reference a number of dynamics going on in China right now. There is sort of a realignment of the sell-in towards the lower sell-through growth rate, so some compression on growth rate in the back half of the year, the channel inventory being drawn down. And so headwinds for the OEMs in terms of the market in the China in the back half of the year. And then what we're seeing is an element of the softness in the sell-through market, really being attributable to more high and premium tier segments of the market pausing before 5G. So we are seeing that - some of that pause before 5G and a desire by some of our OEMs try to accelerate efforts to bring 5G into the market, so seeing that there. Outside of China we referenced lengthening replacement rates in developed markets like the US and Europe. And so, we think a little bit at play there as well in terms of some pause again at sort of the higher tiers in advance of 5G.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And Tal, this is Steve. With respect to Apple, I think the relationship is quite good what really characterizes it now is the 100% of the intensity is how do we get products out together. Very natural I think for both companies. We and I think both sides really anticipated that there would be some announcement like you've seen. But it hasn't changed the way in which we move forward. We’re used to that and the real effort is how do we get products out together and I think that's very healthy relationship.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hey, guys. I want to talk about the 5G side. You're clearly excited about the first half of next calendar year. Can you talk a little bit through do you think it's going to be more of a unit demand environment where that's really going to rise? Or is it going to be more of a substitution effect there? And people on the sell side and buy side should more or less focus on that 1.5x increasing content that you talked about Steve?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yeah, Ross. I think as we look out over the next year and the transition to 5G, we don't really look at it in terms of being a unit growth story, where the market units increase. What we really see is in a flat market, the transition over to 5G creating an opportunity for us by the fact that our monetization per phone is going up as Steve referenced. We see high rates ASPs associated with the complexity as well as the capture of the 5G RF front-end content. So it's really more about of that as a growth driver for us as we head into the first calendar quarter next year and on into rest of fiscal 2020.
Cristiano Amon:
Ross, this is Cristiano. I'd like to add the following. When you look at the first half just the launch of the 5G by the operators and how unlimited data plan starts to move to the 5G devices you'll see that replacement and with that you do see this 1.5 factor coming in as we grow content and RF front end. Overtime, it’s hard to make predictions, but we've seen it with every different a transition. Some of the service of every a video or gaming or streaming gaming starts to become more popular and device form factor changes for a larger screen. You could see the market growing faster than single-digit. But we're not making that assumption for 2020.
Ross Seymore:
That's helpful. I guess as my follow-up question sticking with China theme in general, can you give us whether its your QCT revenues or the MSMs any sort of even rough estimates about the percentage of those that are associated with China, because the year-over-year growth rates you're talking about, or decline in this instance are quite acute. I know in the September quarter you had 14 weeks last year and some of things have changed and you walked through the inventory dynamics. But even if I adjust for those, it seems like you're down a better part of 15%, 20% year-over-year. So to the extent China is such a larger exposure for you, can you just talk about how big is it? And is there anything that you can do to help mitigate these sorts of booms and busts as we go into that first half of 2020, when the count with the 5G ramp could lead to the same sort of volatility?
Dave Wise:
Yeah. A quick comment on year-over-year, so if you take a look at where we are year-over-year there's a couple of thing – couple of factors that affect the decrease, or the reduced level of revenues. One, I would remind you that last year there was significantly more Apple in our business versus the current quarters. So that's a meaningful portion of the decrease in revenues on a year-over-year basis. We also had some low end share loss over the last year that had some contribution to the reduction as well, but Apple a big part of it in terms of QCT. On the QTL side, just to highlight it in the year ago quarter we had $500 million from Huawei compared to $150 million in the current quarter. So, overall that contributes to the comparison also.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And I will just add one - this is Steve. I would just add one I think you have an unusual event here, which was the reaction of Huawei to the ban and how it retrenched into China. And I think that was a very unusual share shift that obviously we got impacted probably more than other folks probably because the tiers and the OEMs that were impacted are ones that we tend to monetize. We think that gets back into more normal position kind of snaps back the other way with the launch of 5G. And hopefully, wouldn't have a one-time event like that, but it should be more stable post that big ramp with 5G.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Yes. Thank you very much. Good afternoon. A couple of additional question on China, one from each side of the business. I know Steve or Cristiano, I know you've talked a little bit about the Huawei retrenchment and the impact on QCT units. It's been topical that obviously China after the Huawei entity list stuff and other factors has maybe focused more as a country on indigenous development. Have there been any movements for high silicon to supply any other OEMs in China or for OEMs broadly source from China? And then on the QTL side, since Judge Koh's ruling any change in compliance with Chinese OEMs outside of Huawei that we should note? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thanks for the question. Look, I think the way to think about it, Huawei had a sudden change in their phone landscape, especially what happened with Europe. I think there was a drastic reduction in demand. And I think that causes them to be very focused on China, because that's the place they could be focused on. I think the big picture answer to your question is China has many initiatives and their initiative in China is not only about China domestic market, but also the Chinese mobile system growth outside China. And what we have seen, it's - our relationship with China remains a very healthy and is expanding, and in addition to the relationship with Vivo, Oppo and OnePlus as they range in Europe, we recently signed an agreement with Tencent talking about content in 5G use case development. And I expect that the relationship between QCT and China in the 5G era will continue to be healthy, because we help the expansion outside China. And that's how we look at. We don't see any signs today that the dynamic is changing.
Alex Rogers:
And then this is Alex. On the QTL side, there was as we referenced one incident that would have affected the compliance and we engaged very rapidly on that take to it very seriously. But as you can see as we ended the reporting here we've got good compliance.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the QCT trajectory. So, I know you talked about inventory flash and some of the weakness in everything else. But at the same time, if I look at your forward guidance on chipsets, I mean you've been missing for the last several quarters. So why all of a sudden is the inventories in a pause in front of the 5G versus just a continuation of the trend that we've already been seeing for the last three or four quarters? And for my follow-up, I just want to know do you guys think 5G overall is accretive to licensing revenues? I mean, you lowered the rate when you included it you have the ASPs capped, it doesn't sound like you’re looking for incremental unit growth for the market for 5G. So, how do we think about 5G's impact on the run rate of royalty revenues as it is today? Thank you.
Dave Wise:
Hey, Stacy. So, with respect to QCT side, first of all, I would make the comment that stepping back over the course of this year, I think with the recent 100 million unit reduction, we've seen a sort of a continuing erosion in the handset market over the course of this year. So, this has been something that has been a headwind for the business I think for the last several quarters. And so I think that's been a dynamic that has been impacting MSM units as well as sort of the overall business. I think what we saw this -- what we're seeing now is maybe a little more pronounced growth impacts on the back half of the year as again we go back to the sort of sell-through rates remaining down in China and the sell-through -- sell-in rates not yet aligned with that. So realignment there -- the fact that they weren't aligned in the first half resulting in some channel inventory build. So, really more market dynamic in terms of pressure on units. As we said a little bit of share loss at the low end, not financially significant. And then the more I would say unique situation was Huawei really entrenching and focusing on the domestic China market and really putting their attention there and grabbing significant share. So, that little bit more of a unique situation to what we're seeing right now. But I would say a lot of it is really attributable to the market headwinds that we've been frankly seeing all year long. And then QTL, with respect to how to think about that as a 5G as an upside a lot of the agreements we signed are for 4G -- 3G, 4G, 5G. And so really we look at it as just a continuation and extending of the monetization of the handset market as it evolves from 4G to 5G just like we did from 3G to 4G.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Mitch Steves:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just had a quick one just kind of turning back to the ASP as expected if we're going to ramp 5G faster. So I guess two parts. So, first does this mean that essentially we're going to see kind of a bigger pause in smartphones shipments and then to increase demand for the kind of 5G shipments out in 2020? And then secondly, if that's not the case, what should we think about as a kind of a normalized unit base for the smartphone industry at this point?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. In our comments when we talked about the 100 million unit reduction, we kind of gave a sense it's 1.7 billion and 1.8 billion units in total. We indicated that now translates into a handset market being down sort of mid single digits year-over-year. And so if you look - if you step back over the last number of years, it's been relatively flat handset market, so down a little bit as we see some of this pause and some of the macro environment impacts affecting us. So we don't really see any sort of it changes in the overall unit market beyond the comments that we made.
Mitch Steves:
Yes, just to clarify a quick, I heard you guys, did a good job as a question referring more to 2020, so essentially, if people are pulling down the numbers for this year. Does that mean essentially 2020 should be up like 7% or 8% to kind of offset those as more of a down year or is it too early to call that?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Probably too early for us to call what we’ll see in ‘20. But I think we would expect to as we said see an inflection beginning in the first calendar. So it will be our second fiscal quarter with 5G launches happening more significantly in China, as well as other flagship device launches at Mobile World Congress and things like that and then sort of a building over the course of the year as we think about moving towards really more flagship launches happening in the fourth fiscal quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yeah. Thanks for squeezing me in guys. Just a couple of things, I wanted to ask kind of deviate from all the demand staff and just ask you if you could update us on the CFO search kind of what the status of that is? And then I also want to come back to just the demand stuff, just to kind of clarify what your -- what information you're acting on? So are you seeing - did you see deterioration of demand through the quarter? Could you just kind of talk to us about what sort of data points you've seen here and how they came to you? Did things weaken toward the end of the quarter or they just remained weak or kind of give us some idea what trajectory look like to you? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Rod hi, it's Steve. We continue to look nothing to announce right now. But we'll keep you updated.
Dave Wise:
Then with respect to sort of how things have unfolded I guess more recently. So one I think we tracked like the CMMR Report. I mean, we track that like probably a lot of others in terms of watching what's happening with the sell-through. And so we've seen that continue to be down even through the June quarter with really no significant movement away from that trend. And then we'll look at that relative to kind of where we see handset demand coming in with respect to sort of our own data points around the markets. And so we look at it from that standpoint. We look at our demand profile is coming in from customers in QCT and factor that into the mix as well. And that's why we've seen some of the pullback that we talked about with respect to 4G units.
Cristiano Amon:
This is a Cristiano. Like we - I think I've mentioned it before. We saw some phone model cancellations, which is on the 4G segment second half launch. So that's an indication they wanted to accelerate the 5G and that’s unusual metric having the phone model cancellation on the 4G side.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen that concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you. I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. And maybe just to the employees of Qualcomm, thank you for a good quarter. We have a lot of work ahead to launch 5G. It's a big opportunity for the company and look forward to the next several quarters. And a lot of work to do, but I think a great opportunity for us. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, May 1, 2019. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13689810. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Dave Wise. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.
You can access our earnings release and the slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statement. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf
Steven Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today.
We are pleased to report another strong quarter. Our fiscal second quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.77 per share exceeded the high end of our guidance range, driven by higher licensing revenues and stronger QCT margins. As we look forward, the rest of the fiscal year will be impacted by a slower market for devices, particularly in China, upstream of the larger rollout of 5G worldwide.
Two weeks ago, we announced the global settlement of our disputes with Apple and its contract manufacturers. We believe the settlement is a win for both companies, and we are pleased with the result and pleased to have it behind us. Dave will provide more details on the financial impact of this settlement in his prepared remarks. But at a high level, this settlement includes 2 long-term agreements with Apple:
a global patent license agreement, and a multiyear chipset supply agreement. The settlement also includes a one-time payment from Apple to Qualcomm.
The term of the global patent license agreement is for 6 years with an option for Apple to extend for an additional 2 years. This represents a significant milestone as it is Qualcomm's first patent license agreement directly with Apple. In addition, we believe our resolution with Apple enhances our position with respect to resolving our ongoing licensing issues with Huawei. We will also be supplying modems to Apple for future devices under the terms of our new multiyear chipset supply agreement. In the long term, we will also have the opportunity to provide Apple with other Qualcomm technologies and products to expand our dollar content share in Apple's products, as we have done with our other handset OEMs. We are committed to a strong partnership with Apple. Now that the dispute with Apple is behind us, I thought it would be helpful to describe how we are thinking about the positioning of the company going forward. First, 5G will be a significant opportunity for Qualcomm, both within cellular and in other industries. It is the key technology enabler for the future of the Internet, and having a strong and differentiated technology position is an important asset for our shareholders. This past quarter was a tipping point for 5G when in February at Mobile World Congress, representatives from major Android device manufacturers, network operators and infrastructure providers, joined Qualcomm in celebrating our collective achievement in bringing 5G to life. Since that event, I am pleased to report that the rollout of 5G has officially begun. In the last months, we have seen carriers and OEMs announce and launch commercial 5G services and devices in North America, South Korea, Europe, and most recently, China, representing the first global rollout of a new wireless standard. The arrival of 5G in China is particularly exciting as it brings 5G to the largest mobile user base in the world. To date, the vast majority of the announced 5G devices for China include Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipsets. Second, we enter into the 5G era with strength in products, a favorable competitive dynamic, and more customer diversity and technology breadth than in earlier generations of cellular. This is due to Qualcomm's continued focus on investing in innovation and R&D during a time of much activity and attention on our company. We've transformed QCT by diversifying our customer base, focusing our investments and streamlining our cost structure. Our year-to-date non-Apple QCT operating income doubled compared to a 2-year-ago period, putting us in a strong position to grow revenues and profits as we began ramping 5G in addition to supplying Apple under this new agreement. As 5G network launches continue to grow, so does our QCT design win pipeline. We now have over 75 5G design wins, more than double the number we announced last January, driven by OEM designs with our first and second generation 5G modems. In February, we announced our second generation 5G modem, the Snapdragon X55, our second generation 5G RF front end solutions and the world's first mobile platform with integrated 5G, all of which position us to power the second wave of 5G devices launching in late 2019 and early 2020 to drive mainstream adoption of 5G. Our early investments in 5G now allow us to offer the world's first modem-to-antenna system for commercial 5G new radio smartphone devices, spanning millimeter-wave and sub-6 gigahertz bands, including baseband, RF transceiver, RF front-end components and millimeter wave antenna modules. This systems approach is creating a benchmark for 5G RF front-end performance. Qualcomm is heavily engaged as a critical partner to leaders across many industries as they see 5G mobility as a foundational technology for their digital transformation. Third, our cost structure and investment focus are aligned with the opportunities ahead. We will continue to invest where we can leverage our core competencies and bring innovative solutions to large markets. In 5G, this presents opportunities for growth in our core cellular market in addition to many adjacent industries as they leverage 5G to accelerate their digital transformation. In summary, with our agreements with Apple, the beginning of the 5G ramp, our focus on operational execution and capital return, we think we've laid the groundwork for growth in revenue and EPS and stockholder returns over the next several years. As a management team, we are committed to driving stockholder value by taking thoughtful and deliberate actions that we believe will ensure the long-term growth of our company, as you have seen. We appreciate the positive reaction from investors and analysts to our recent announcement with Apple, especially the feedback from many stockholders over the last 2 weeks who have recognized and appreciated our commitment to sustaining Qualcomm's long-term differentiation and focus on technology and innovation. I would now like to turn the call over to Dave.
David Wise:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone.
We are pleased to announce strong second quarter results with GAAP revenues of $5 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range; and non-GAAP EPS of $0.77, $0.02 above the high end of our range. The outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by QTL revenues of $1.12 billion that were positively impacted by approximately $100 million of out-of-period catch-up, offsetting some impacts from overall market weakness. Additionally, we saw improved QCT gross margins and operating expenses, which came in lower than expected. QCT revenues of $3.7 billion were in line with expectations. MSM shipments of 155 million units were within the guidance range but below the midpoint, reflecting overall weakness in global device shipments. QCT EBT margin was 14.6% for the quarter, at the high end of our prior guidance range, driven by improvements in gross margins. Please note results this quarter do not contain any contributions from the settlements of our disputes with Apple and its contract manufacturers. Turning to our global 3G/4G/5G device forecast. We are lowering our estimates for calendar 2019 by another 50 million units at the midpoint to 1.85 billion units due to continued weakness in China and a lengthening of handset replacement cycles, potentially reflecting a pause in advance of 5G rollouts. We now expect global handset units to decline slightly year-over-year, offset by continued growth in nonhandsets, resulting in total overall unit growth of approximately 3% at the midpoint. In regards to our recently announced Apple agreements, we expect to record revenues resulting from the settlement of matters prior to the effective date of the agreement of $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion in our third fiscal quarter. This includes a cash payment from Apple and the release of related liabilities. The settlement amount will be excluded from our non-GAAP results. Our guidance for the third fiscal quarter, we estimate GAAP revenues to be in the range of $9.2 billion to $10.2 billion, and estimate GAAP EPS of $3.57 to $3.77, which includes the revenues related to the settlement with Apple and the contract manufacturers. We estimate fiscal third quarter non-GAAP revenues to be in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS to be approximately $0.70 to $0.80. For QTL, we expect revenues to be between $1.225 billion and $1.325 billion, including the addition of ongoing Apple royalties, offset by a relatively modest impact from previously discussed market weakness and impacts from OEM mix. This compares favorably to the second quarter of QTL revenues, which after adjusting for approximately $100 million of greater-than-expected catch-up revenues, was about $1.025 billion. As a reminder, our third quarter guidance includes the last $150 million payment under the ending term agreement with Huawei. We expect QTL EBT margin to be 65% to 69%, up sequentially, reflecting the inclusion of Apple licensing revenues and modestly lower litigation expense. In QCT, we estimate 150 million to 170 million MSM shipments for the third quarter and EBT margins between 13% and 15%. QCT is also being negatively impacted by overall market weakness, unfavorable OEM mix shift, including share shift towards Huawei, and near-term impacts to adjacent businesses from economic weakness in China. With respect to the cost plan, we have completed and achieved substantially all of the target $1 billion savings based on our second quarter run rate excluding excess litigation costs. For our third fiscal quarter, we expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to increase 6% to 8%. About 6 points of the sequential increase reflects an increase in our employee bonus plan as a result of the impacts of our Apple settlements. Litigation expense savings are expected to be modest in the third quarter given expenses incurred in advance of the resolution with Apple and its contract manufacturers, as well as continuing costs related to the ongoing regulatory actions in the U.S., Korea and EU. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we expect further litigation cost savings, partially offset by investment in our employees. Longer term, we expect litigation cost savings to be somewhat offset by increased investment to support Apple product ramp. Turning to our tax rate. We estimate our third quarter non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 14% to 15%, and expect it to be a good proxy for the remainder of the fiscal year. As an update on our share repurchase activity, as of May 1, we have completed approximately 65% of the ASRs at an average price of approximately $61 per share. As a reminder, we expect to complete the ASRs in early September. We are estimating 1.23 billion weighted average shares outstanding for the third fiscal quarter and approximately 1.2 billion weighted average shares outstanding for the full year fiscal 2019. Looking longer term, when we announced our settlement with Apple, we indicated the deal would add an incremental $2 of EPS from the combination of ongoing Apple licensing revenues and product shipments as we fully ramp. The $2 EPS estimate excludes any impacts from the $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion of revenues resulting from the settlement, and it does not incorporate any impacts from the reduction of FX litigation expense. The $2 estimate also does not reflect any contributions from potential resolution with Huawei. Before I finish my prepared remarks, let me summarize the key drivers of our long-term earnings growth opportunities. First, with the global launch of 5G starting in the second half of calendar 2019, we expect to see an increase in both device and chipset selling prices and are well-positioned given the strength of our 5G chipset road map. Second, with the multiyear agreement with Apple, we expect to see significant revenue and margin expansion for both our licensing and chipset businesses, with further additional opportunities to capture broader product content over time. Third, we are seeing increased design win traction for our RF front end products across all OEMs, driven by the upcoming launches of sub-6 and millimeter wave 5G devices. Fourth, while some of our adjacent opportunities have seen short-term impacts from economic weakness, we remain confident in our ability to scale these opportunities over the next few years. And lastly, we will continue to focus on increasing gross margins and driving operating expense efficiencies as we realize our growth opportunities outlined above. Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, Dave. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
T. Michael Walkley:
Congratulations on the Apple settlement. A couple of questions built into that. With the settlement reached with Apple, can you update us on how negotiations are going with Huawei? And with the Apple settlement, does the agreement, the way it's structured with Apple, trigger any changes to current licensees or open up any other current licensee agreements?
Alexander Rogers:
So Mike, this is Alex. In terms of the negotiations with Huawei, they're ongoing. We feel that the Apple resolution enhances our ability to resolve issues with Huawei. So we think that's a good thing. In terms of the triggers, I can't get into the specifics of MFM-type provisions. Those are confidential. But we're confident that we'll be able to address any inquiries coming in relating to the nature of the Apple resolution and essentially address other licensees. And I think if you take a look at our Q3 guide in our fiscal year '21, incremental $2 EPS gives you a sense of kind of how we see that all working out.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.
James Faucette:
I wanted to ask, as it relates to just handset demand, clearly, you're making adjustments, and that has an impact on QCT. But from a demand perspective, are you seeing any sequential changes or stabilization in that? Just trying to get a sense for where you feel like we're at in terms of potential incremental risk to those estimates. And then dovetailing on Mike's question related to Huawei. Can you walk us through a little bit, maybe on a year-over-year basis, how Huawei's share gains and those kinds of things may be limiting QTL's benefit, particularly post the Apple settlement?
Cristiano Amon:
James, this is Cristiano. I'm just going to get the first question and then hand it over to Alex. I'll start with sequential. No, actually, if you look at our non-Apple MSM business, I think our growth have been consistent with sequential growth historically when you look at our guide for Q3. So I think sequentially, we've basically seen the business behave in exactly the same way. What we did see, there was a little bit of market weakness. I think it was in the script, economic weakness, particularly in China. But the offset of that, we see a pause ahead of a 5G launch. And I want to remind everyone that China just launched. They were supposed to launch in September. China Unicom, and then followed by Telecom, just launched weeks ago, and I think that has an impact. But if anything, it builds our confidence, I would think, about the later part of the year with the 5G transition. With that, Alex, do you want to take the other question?
David Wise:
Actually, I'll jump in. This is Dave. On the Huawei share, a couple of thoughts. One, obviously, as they pick up a little bit of share right now, we are only being paid in QTL under an interim agreement, which is fixed at about $150 million a quarter. So we don't see any financial pickup from share shifts that way. And then similarly, QCT, some of that share coming from OEMs that we monetize a little bit more.
Alexander Rogers:
I'll just add one more point. This is Alex. And that is while we have this interim agreement arrangement, I just want to remind people what we do have an existing agreement with Huawei that was entered into at the end of 2014 on the eve of the NDRC resolution. We think that's very good, very fair agreement. And so that is the context in which this ongoing negotiation is occurring.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James.
Christopher Caso:
I guess the question is just helping us to get a little more granularity on what's in the $2 number that you mentioned. I guess firstly on that, is the timing of that $2 impact -- obviously, as some of the chipset designs ramp, that happens over time. So does the $2 impact represent the full impact of that, or perhaps some interim? In addition, does the current QTL guidance fully reflect the full royalty payments paid by Apple now such that we should be able to annualize that, and that will get us to the licensing portion of the $2?
David Wise:
Yes. This is Dave again. So first of all, on that second part of the question. So our Q3 guide reflects the inclusion of Apple go-forward royalties. It does also reflect some headwinds related to the market. But it can give you a sense of the Apple contribution and where we are on a go-forward basis in QTL. I would think about the quarter as -- it's a seasonally one of our lighter quarters for QTL. So if you think about annualizing that, I would take that into consideration as you think about the number on an annual basis. And then the $2. So the $2 we've indicated, the $2 is reflective of contribution from licensing, ongoing licensing now going forward, as well as chipset contributions once we ramp. We expect that as we ramp to see a more significant contribution on the QCT side. So I think if you kind of look at where we see the contribution from Apple on the QTL side, based on our quarterly guidance, you can get a sense of that element of the $2, and then the rest is coming from QCT as we ramp. And I think as Steve said, we would see -- there's potential opportunities to do more with Apple down the road, but it's reflective of our views at this point.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I had a question on the QTL revenue run rate. So the revenue guide is 12 75; obviously includes Apple; also includes $150 million in Huawei. If I take all that out -- if I take Huawei out, you're sort of guiding 11 25. Before, you had told us the right run rate was kind of $1 billion to $1.1 billion. So even with Apple, you're only guiding a little bit above that. Is this just purely a function of the ongoing market weakness? Because I mean, you've been running that core business $900 million or lower the last quarter or 2? Or is there something else going on? Like what do you think the actual run rate of that core QTL is ex Apple and Huawei versus the $1 billion to $1.1 billion guidance that you had given us previously?
David Wise:
Yes. The $1 billion to $1.1 billion we have given previously was inclusive of the $150 million with Huawei.
Stacy Rasgon:
No, no. No, it wasn't. No, it wasn't.
David Wise:
So 2 quarters ago, we had guided where it did not have it in. And then we adjusted that in the January call to be inclusive of the $150 million from Huawei. And in the January call, we guided down the market by 50 million units. And in this call, we're also guiding down another 50 million units. So the bulk of what we're seeing -- we are seeing some continued headwinds in the market for QTL in our Q3 guide, which is somewhat offsetting the impacts of the addition of Apple.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.
Blayne Curtis:
Wanted to ask on just the legal front, what's left? You talked about reinvesting some of the potential savings in litigation cost. Maybe you can just level set us as to what that number was, and then just walk through what's left. If you can speak about the FTC, I'd appreciate that as well. But kind of just walk us through the rest of the year as to what you have left on legal and so we can get an idea of what you're reinvesting.
David Wise:
Yes. So litigation, we said in the prepared remarks, Q3, we're not expecting to see a lot of savings. We have some modest savings in Q3. We had a heavy run rate on litigation in advance of reaching settlement with Apple ahead of the San Diego case. And then in Q4, we are expecting additional savings as we wind off of the Apple-related litigation expense. A couple of offsets to that, we are -- namely, the adjustment to our employee bonus accrual, which had a big impact. It was, as I said, about 6 points of our 6% to 8% increase was related to that adjustment in the employee bonus, and we have some of that flowing through into Q4 as well. So we're not expecting to see a lot of overall savings with the ramp down of litigation and some of that offset in Q3 and 4, but we expect to see more of those savings flowing into fiscal '20.
Donald Rosenberg:
And Blayne, this is Don Rosenberg, picking up on Dave's point about litigation. Clearly, we were spending a lot of money and a lot of time and resources on the worldwide litigation with Apple. As you know, it's grown dramatically. So eliminating all of that now is pretty much the -- has been the key to getting us back in kind of a normal litigation cadence. We still have -- obviously, are waiting for the judge to rule on the FTC case, which we won't comment on. And we've got the normal amount of various patent cases and others around the world. But a couple of class actions that flowed from some of the previous allegations relating to Apple and the FTC and others. But it's a dramatic decrease in the amount of litigation where they have to be managing over the next several years, I think.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee:
Steve, I just want to check if you can lay out for us the competitive landscape in 5G, particularly as it relates to baseband modem software or Intel Select. Like does that change how you think about kind of your position in 5G and the peak either the pricing or the margin opportunity created for your content in 5G? Additionally, just to follow-up, I know you guys talked about kind of the one-time payment from Apple. Any color on kind of what the uses of that cash are in terms of how you're thinking about capital allocation around that, that will be helpful.
Steven Mollenkopf:
It's Steve. Maybe I'll ask Cristiano to take the first part of that, and then I'll add my perspective and answer the second part.
Cristiano Amon:
Samik, we feel very, very strong about our 5G position in the marketplace. I think I remind you all that we actually accelerated the timeline by one year, and we've been the silicon of choice in every single trial and development across infrastructure and operator and device. So it's a very strong position, consistent to what we saw the company doing in 3G and 4G. And we expect that's going to be a significant opportunity to expand ASPs in a silicon content for QCT and in the -- we just updated a number of designs, we see about 75 designs for 5G right now. And we also have that in all those 5G designs, I think the absolute majority of it has our RF front end content. So 5G is a very good story for QCT and will be a very material event in fiscal '20.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Yes. And I would just add very briefly that I think there's -- it's unfolded very -- in a way that's pretty similar to the way in which we thought. It's very important to be at the front end of these transitions. Right now, the team -- and the front end of this transition really meant you had to have a lot of modem expertise across multiple technologies, but also RF expertise to really handle all the RF bands and the complicated antennas, which is I think we're getting good traction on those investments in the past and we're hoping to see that really flow into the business, particularly in the next fiscal year. Now the real race is how do you bring 5G down in price point through integrated products? And so you saw the first one of our products announced. You'll see more and more of that. Very pleased with the way those products are being demanded, or at least the road map traction that we're getting from those, and we'll continue to do that.
In terms of the use of the one-time payment, I think we gave some data here about how our capital return program, particularly the ASR, has done, which has been good. That's been a strong program for us. We are, I think, in a different mode in terms of our ability to look at the landscape here over the next couple of years. The thing that the, really, the Apple settlement and the launch of 5G coming together, we think it puts us in a very stable position in terms of our visibility into revenue and kind of the competitive dynamics. So now the question is, how do we add to the company? What do we need to do in order to really drive some of the opportunities that we're getting from 5G? So we're looking at that, but still committed to all of the operational excellence, both cost and capital return that we talked about. But we've got a lot of opportunity ahead, we think, particularly with the stability that this resolution provides us.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Tal Liani:
The $4 billion -- $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion for Apple, is it -- is all of it a retroactive payment for what they didn't pay? Or is some of it going to be related to future, kind of upfront payment for future? And that means how will you recognize revenues for this amount? Would it all be recognized as one-time? Or will you recognize some of it ratable over the life of the contract?
David Wise:
Yes. The $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion is all for resolution of things prior to the effective date of the agreement. So it's all past. We'll recognize it one-time as revenue in Q3 in our GAAP results. And then our go-forward guidance on QTL includes the forward impact of ongoing royalties from Apple starting in Q3. And I would note, our $2 estimate is solely go-forward licensing revenues plus chip contribution.
Tal Liani:
The question is -- so that means you're going to recognize the $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion, you're going to recognize one-time? Or you've already recognized it on a GAAP basis?
David Wise:
Yes, it'll be in Q3. Yes. We'll recognize it one-time in Q3.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
Congrats on the settlement with Apple. Just had a question on the revenue premise. I believe you guided for it to be up substantially, and it was. And I think you said it was in line with your guidance. So 2 parts to the question. Can you give us a little color what drove that up so nicely in the March quarter? And then of equal importance, it looks like you're guiding for that to be flat sequentially in the June quarter. So can you talk about some of the puts and takes that benefited margin, and why those are continuing or not in the June quarter.
Cristiano Amon:
Ross, this is Cristiano. Yes. I think when we look at the March quarter, I think with product mix, and especially, I think as some of the premium tier chipsets, we are seeing seasonality with our Chinese customers. And as we look at the guide for Q3, those are some of the comments we made before. We had overall market weakness in China, but we also see in the premium tier, a pause as 5G has launched. 5G has launched in China. And it is an Android ecosystem phenomena, 5G launching on Android, and -- or see the MSM800, which is our 5G designs. We see that pause as the 5G phones are coming to market. Also consistent with some of the other OEMs that report their earnings and they talk about dynamics on the premium tier in the market. So we see that. I think the other comment we made is, when you look at sequentially, our growth sequentially when you look at our guide, Q2 to Q3 for the non-Apple business, when it eliminates the legacy Apple units, it's been very consistent and it's in line with the historical data.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen and Company.
Matthew Ramsay:
Steve, you gave I thought some helpful information in your prepared script about some of the non-Apple progress that you made in QCT over the last couple of years. And you've dropped us some data in the last few quarters about some adjacencies that have been growing. I wonder if you might step back and give us a little color on the investments that you've been making in areas like auto, networking, some of the adjacencies that you had talked about growing the company into over the last maybe 3 or 4 years ago before some of the headwinds with Apple. And Cristiano, specifically about RF. It looks like a ton of RF attached in the early 5G programs. Any thoughts about how sustainable that might be until volume ramps in 2020?
Steven Mollenkopf:
Why don't I start with the general one, and Cristiano, you can dig into the second one. So if I look at the adjacencies, and we've done a couple of things here over the last several years. First of all, we've really tried to focus the company on things that we can see that heavily leverage the technology road map that we have for mobile. We're doing that upstream of 5G primarily because we think that technology road map is the relevant road map in these adjacent industries. So a great example of that is cars. So in the car, the connected car, the opportunity for us to sell modems and now computing capability in the head units, and then ultimately, some of the broader communicate -- or computing in the car increases, and we've seen that progress well here over the last several years. That's a good business. Longer timeline, harder to get into, harder -- but stickier, I guess, which is good. I think that's going well. Industrial IoT, which is a business that I think leverages the -- this digital transformation aspect I mentioned in my remarks, is going well. Consumer IoT, I think, has yet to really embrace some of the opportunities that are coming. We still think that's going to be an interesting opportunity, but the industrial side is probably a little better for us.
We are continuing to invest in the go-to-market aspects. We have a pretty strong technology road map. It's our ability. How do we mesh into those different-shaped markets versus what we see in cellular, but a very strong road map to go into there. You mentioned the RF side. We think there's significant opportunity, particularly with the advent or the growth of 5G and the importance of the RF there, to grow content within the device. And when we see opportunities to do that, we're doing that. So you see that in RF. Cristiano will comment about that. I also don't want you to miss some of the opportunities like fingerprint that we've been able to invest into. And those are interesting opportunities. So we see 5G as an opportunity to allow us to really leverage some of the R&D scale that we have in mobile. And as we see that, we're going to take advantage of it and try to stay focused along the same way.
Cristiano Amon:
So I'm just going to add a few things. First, when you look at the -- as you mentioned, the adjacent for us, non-Apple, when you exclude Apple, even with some of the economic weakness we're seeing, we're still growing both Q2 and Q3. When we look at year-over-year, it's still double-digit growth. Some of those bets, very small, but the trends are very -- they're very good. I think I want to highlight a few that Steve mentioned on industrial. The alignment on our industrial bet with the 5G and the fact that 5G is going to go to many other industries beyond mobile, it's going to be a major tailwind to get a scale on industrial IoT. We see the same thing with the Cellular V2X, and it was going to be added to our existing digital cockpit and telematics business. One data point that we didn't mention, we still have a bet on computing. And you should expect to see in the second-half calendar, our 8cx, which refers to Snapdragon dedicated for PCs with Microsoft. And that will be the first opportunity that we started to see that investment materializing.
Now going back to the front end. I believe that our position in 5G is differentiated. What's happening with 5G, the speed of the road map, especially as you think of a number of antennas and carrier aggregation, is moving faster than we saw with 4G. And the ability to design as a system and claim some of the real estate that you had on devices for the front end is giving us an advantage. We're the only company now that actually has everything from digital to the antenna in house, and that give us an ability to build on our strength of being a system versus just a component provider. And that materialize in the fact that every single 5G design right now, you'll find our front end, and we expect that to continue.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.
Christopher Muse:
I'll ask 2, if I could. First one, trying to level set QTL revenues ex Apple. So could you help me understand what catch-up payments or input/output were related to ASC 606 and other kind of moving parts within that QTL for March and any expectations for June? And then the second question. Your goal, I believe, was $6.4 billion OpEx without excess litigation for fiscal '19, obviously, will come in above that because of the litigation. But as you look to fiscal '20, is that a number that we could get to considering that most of the litigation that we've been talking about is behind us now?
David Wise:
Yes. So let me start with Q2. So we communicated in the prepared comments, there was about $100 million of more-than-expected one-time -- or out-of-period in the QTL revenues of $1.12 billion. So that relates to, I would say, both ASC 606 adjustments for prior as well as some one-time adjustments related to some cleanup from prior periods on a few programs. And then on a go-forward basis, our basis, obviously, with 606 is forecasting our revenues. There is always going to be some chance of true-up as we move forward and move from, really, actuals that are based on somewhat of an estimate, to sort of final understanding of how quarters rolled out. So Q3, nothing specific with respect to out of period. But we'll have some of that, I think, every quarter just based on the nature of 606. Then with respect to the OpEx. So yes, the target was to get to 6 4. We do still have excess litigation. And as I said before, we expect to realize some of those litigation savings as we move into fiscal '20, maybe somewhat offset by our need to invest a little bit more to support ramp of Apple.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Stifel.
Kevin Cassidy:
For your chipset ramp with Apple, is there an opportunity to win back the sockets on 4G?
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Look, we're not providing a lot of details, but I think you -- it's fair to assume that it's going to be a new engagement. It takes a little bit of time to develop devices of the chipset. And independent of our engagement of Apple, in general, I think all developed economies will have 5G launch in 2019.
Kevin Cassidy:
Okay, great. And the RF front end, you're saying the majority of those designs will include your RF front end. Can you give us an idea of what percentage increase of content that might be?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes. My comment is about in the Android ecosystem. I think we're not detailing any RF front end engagement with Apple right now. What I will say, as we reestablish ourselves as a supplier of Apple, we reopened the door for opportunities beyond the modem.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
Timothy Arcuri:
Steve, so I wanted to go back to this $2 number. The QTL piece is clear. You were clear about a 6-year agreement with them. But on the QCT side, obviously, they have a pretty big modem team. So what sort of supply agreement, if any, is there on the QCT side? I think you said multiyear when you announced that $2 number. So should we just infer that you'll be the supplier to them for 2020 and 2021, and then beyond that, who knows? Or is there something else to think about there?
Steven Mollenkopf:
Yes. I'd say this maybe a little bit unsatisfying, but I'm not going to go through all the details, other than to say, on the chipset agreement, it's a multiyear agreement. I think both companies are happy with it. Its something that, at least the way we look at it from the QCT side or from the Qualcomm side, is it provides a lot of stability to our business. So we think that's a good, good agreement for us. And then also, I'll just remind you, there's a lot of tension removed out of the system as a result of these settlements, and I really like the opportunity to have the 2 teams just working together on products in the future, much more natural relationships, something that I think both sides can find and maintain a good relationship. But it is a multiyear agreement. And other than that, I really can't talk much about it. You know the terms on a licensing agreement, 6 years plus an option to extend 2 more years for Apple.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie.
Srinivas Pajjuri:
Steve, just to follow up on the previous question, to the extent you can tell us. What sort of ASP increase do you expect in 5G for the 10 modems? And then I'm guessing the $2 number has some market share assumptions at Apple. To the extent you can tell us, is it 100% or is it less than that, at least for the first generation? And then, Dave, on the QTL EBIT margin, your guidance is for 65% to 69%. When do you expect to get back to the previous 80%, 85% ranges?
Steven Mollenkopf:
Okay. On the product assumptions with Apple, I won't give share numbers, but I will comment on ASP. The ASP story, at least in the case of as we move to 5G, they tend to be good for us. And the ASPs, as we're moving in through the 5G ramp, we said that they're going to be a good story. And looking at what we're seeing broadly across the industry, that seems to be playing forward.
David Wise:
And 2 things will drive the QTL margin going forward. One will be some of the wind down of litigation, excess litigation spend. The other important one will be top line expansion as we now add Apple back in and when we resolve Huawei. Both of those will be factors driving margin up over time.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
Brett Simpson:
Just a quick question on the corporate overhead you're assuming for the June quarter. I guess when we look at the midpoint of your margin guide for QTL and QCT, there's about a $300 million corporate overhead. Can you maybe just go into detail as to what -- how that's built up, please?
David Wise:
Yes. That's the bonus adjustment that I talked about in my script. So resolution of Apple, we adjust our normal employee bonus accrual for the addition of the impacts of Apple. Because it's third quarter now, we take a number of quarters of catch-up into the quarter. That is not pushed out into the business unit margins. It's held in corporate. So that's the bulk of the delta you're seeing.
Brett Simpson:
And so just to understand the movement in OpEx that we can expect through the end of the fiscal year, you talked about the litigation. Can you size it at all of us? Can you help us understand like the magnitude of how this sort of plays out over the next few quarters and how you see the underlying OpEx rising? And how we should really model the next sort of 2 or 3 quarters of absolute OpEx?
David Wise:
Sure. So first of all, in Q3, I think the midpoint of our range is around $1.7 billion, $1.8 billion or something like that of OpEx. That includes when you look at this bonus adjustment, it's about $100 million. So it puts us at about $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion. That's up slightly from where we were in Q2 for a couple of seasonal-type things and includes some modest savings in litigation. In Q4, we expect further savings in litigation. The one-time elements of the bonus catch-up will be out, and we think that it puts us probably somewhere flattish on the adjusted Q3. So you think about Q3 without the $100 million at $1.6 billion, $1.67 billion.
Brett Simpson:
Okay. That's really helpful. And maybe just finally on op margin targets for QTL. Now you've settled with Apple. I mean, obviously, there's still a Huawei settlement at some point, hopefully, fairly soon. But can you give us a sense as to how you think QTL op margins are going to trend beyond the June-quarter? And is there a path to get back to the sort of op margins that you were used to before a lot of these overhangs? I think you were sort of delivering something around about 80% op margin level for QTL? Do we ever get back to those type of levels? And maybe for QCT. Cristiano, now that you're seeing a lot of op leverage from winning a big 5G deal with Apple, how do we think about op margin target for QCT longer term?
David Wise:
Yes. So QTL, I think as I said before, I think a couple of drivers that will improve, and that is the reduction of litigation savings. So I said that we'd see more of that flowing into fiscal '20 from a timing standpoint. And then resolution of Huawei and the addition of more on the top line in QTL. So obviously, that timing would be reflective of whenever we reach agreement with them, is I think the 2 major drivers.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Just on QCT, I think the plan remains unchanged as we gain scale, continue to grow in mobile. And we've been -- we have made a lot of progress growing our non-Apple business. And then I think as the -- all of the agreements get in place, we expect to get back to our long-term profitability target at QCT, and we're looking forward to having a 5G Christmas as the year ends.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho Securities.
Vijay Rakesh:
Just wondering if you could give some more color on the RF front end wins that you mentioned. I think you said 75% were design wins and majority of them have a front end. Are you doing more of the mid-end or low-end? Or -- and just if you could kind of ballpark what content you are looking at.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Very good. Thanks for your question. On the 5G, if you look at all the 5G bands, the sub-6 bands as well as millimeter wave, that's where you'll find our RF front end content in all of those 75 design wins for 5G Android. The majority of them are flagship smartphones in the premium tier. And our content goes from the envelope trackers to the permits, which is to the PA modules, feature-rich content across all bands, switches and antenna tuners. And we -- as I said before, I think we have been seeing significant differentiations in performance on 5G, which had allowed us to have the whole solution from the digital baseband all the way to the antenna.
Vijay Rakesh:
Got it. And on the QTL side, if you look at the June quarter, you talked about seasonality. But as you look beyond, with the Apple payments starting to normalize, what would be a normalized QTL run rate that we should be looking at?
David Wise:
Yes. I think the best way to look at that is the guide, we have now in Q2 includes Apple on a go-forward basis. It includes some headwinds associated with market weakness. And it's one of our seasonally lighter quarters for QTL. So I think if you sort of take those factors into consideration, you can -- it'll help you triangulate to sort of how to think about it on an annualized basis.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven Mollenkopf:
Yes. First of all, thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Just a quick note to our employee base. Just thank you so much for staying focused during this period of time. You put the company in a great position. I look forward to the ramp of 5G and really the opportunities that are ahead of us. Just thanks a lot for all your hard work, and we'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 30, 2019. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13686071. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations Web Site. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our Web Site later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our Web Site. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to report a strong quarter especially in light of the challenging headwinds impacting the entire industry. Our fiscal first quarter results reflect continued execution by our team on the things within our control and influence. Our Q1 non-GAAP earnings of $1.20 per share were $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance range. Revenue of $4.8 billion was in line with our guidance. Several positive trends enabled us to absorb the impact of general market weakness. Notably, number one, QCT's strong roadmap and financial performance in the high-end; number two, QTL's second interim agreement with Huawei; and number three, lower than expected operating expenses, which includes the impact of our cost reduction initiatives. Our business prospects remain very healthy as 5G begins to ramp through the balance of this year and beyond. Our Snapdragon platform continues to outperform industry benchmarks and is well-positioned to successfully enable the low latency, high reliability and security requirements of 5G. We continue to extend this expertise with handset OEMs and adjacent industries of compute IoT and auto. Our Wi-Fi business continues to gain share against longstanding incumbents in enterprise. Reliable intelligent and secure Wi-Fi will be an important part of future 5G networks. And we've introduced innovative and differentiated solutions as the market transitions to Wi-Fi 6. In parallel, we remain focused on resolving our Apple and regulatory disputes. Before I turn the call over to George to cover our results in more detail, I want to provide an update on some important legal milestones and our ongoing efforts to defend the value of our intellectual property and drive shareholder value. As most of you know, we are one of the main architects of the wireless ecosystem and our leading investments in R&D have positioned the company at the forefront of 2G, 3G, 4G and now 5G leadership. We have one of the largest patent portfolios in the industry with more than 130,000 patents and pending patent applications worldwide. And it is critical that we protect our IP and ensure that we are appropriately compensated for our inventions and investments. Through these various legal cases, we are working to ensure this happens. Courts in China and Germany have found Apple to be infringing our patents consistent with our prior messaging where the potential of multiple patent infringement rulings before the end of 2018. We are pursuing enforcement of the injunctions awarded by these courts and believe the decisions will be upheld on appeal. These favorable rulings demonstrate Apple's infringement across a broad range of our patented technologies that are unrelated to modem chips, but are widely used in smartphones. We expect additional favorable patent infringement decisions in the coming months in the United States, China and Germany as more of our cases go to trial. In addition to our patent litigation there are more legal milestones ahead including the trial involving Apple and its contract manufacturers starting in San Diego in April and a separate case in California state court we filed to stop Apple's misuse and misappropriation of Qualcomm's trade secrets. We continue to believe that over the course of 2019, we will reach a resolution on the key outstanding issues in our disputes with Apple through settlement or litigation and we are prepared for both outcomes. Yesterday, we concluded our arguments in the case with the FTC in the Northern District of California. As stated before, we believe that the FTC's case is based on a flawed antitrust theory and that it failed to meet its burden of proof for its claims. You can access the transcript of our closing arguments and the related slide presentation on our Web Site at qualcomm.com/news. Over the course of the trial, we made a strong showing that our licensing practices are consistent with industry norms have not harmed competition and in fact the industry is thriving. We have earned or maintained our leadership in the mobile wireless industry with superior foresight, investment and execution driving superior technology solutions compared with our competitors and we have never interrupted commercial shipments of modem chips to any customer in order to obtain unfair licensing rates. Moreover, the evidence presented at trial proved that our agreements with Apple which expired over two years ago were run-of-the-mill incentive agreements that were actually demanded by Apple in order to win its business. The trial reinforce the important role we play in the mobile industry. This is especially critical now as we enter the early innings of 5G, the first mobile generation that is truly shaping industrial policy. In summary, we are hopeful that the law and fact-based analysis will prevail in our FTC proceedings. In parallel, we continue to look for an opportunity to reach a negotiated settlement with the FTC. Let me now spend some time providing you an update on how we are driving the transition to 5G. We are extremely pleased with the growing 5G momentum around the world. In December, we hosted our annual Snapdragon Tech Summit and we're joined by leading 5G ecosystem partners, infrastructure vendors as well as device manufacturers. This level of representation from the mobile ecosystem is a testament to our broad industry commitment to 5G, our solutions and our leadership position. At the summit, we announced our new Snapdragon 855 mobile platform, the world's first commercial platform supporting multi-gigabit 5G and demonstrate an end-to-end 5G consumer experiences with real demos over live millimeter wave 5G networks and devices. We also announced that the Snapdragon 855 is gaining significant momentum with over 100 design wins in development. Since the summit, 5G service has begun to roll out in Korea and the United States and as 2019 progresses we anticipate continued 5G network launches in the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia and China. We are working with more than 20 operators toward commercial rollout starting this year and we expect to be the 5G modem supplier of choice for the majority of the first wave of 5G devices. In addition to commercial 5G service, device manufacturers are also ramping production of consumer 5G devices. At CES, we announced 30-plus commercial 5G mobile design wins based on our 5G chipsets. The majority of these designs are smartphones from global OEM featuring the Snapdragon 855 mobile platform and the Snapdragon X50 5G modem family, which are expected to launch in the first half of 2019. Notably, nearly all of the devices related to these 5G design wins use our RF front-end solutions and we expect these design wins to have a meaningful positive impact to our RF front-end product line. Consistent with the past, 3G and 4G transitions as 5G launches in 2019 across multiple geographies, we expect the carriers to play an active role in driving the transition to 5G devices. Turning to our adjacent opportunities, in automotive, we announced our third generation Snapdragon Automotive Cockpit platforms, which provide a multi-tier scalable architecture across tiers to expand the addressable market for our infotainment solutions. Importantly, to an automotive manufacturer a scalable architecture delivers a consistent experience across budget to mid-tier to premium car lines. We also launched the custom-built Snapdragon 8cx Compute Platform which represents the largest generational performance increase ever for Snapdragon product. We look forward to growing this category with Microsoft and expect more announcements throughout the year. In summary, in a challenging market QCT is continuing to execute consistent with our expectations at the beginning of the year and we are looking forward to our upcoming product launches. Finally, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and focused execution. We continue to make great progress on our important strategic objectives. We are driving the transition to 5G and we are leveraging our core technologies to expand our reach into many exciting new industries. I would like to now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to report solid results in our fiscal first quarter. Our revenues were $4.8 billion in the first quarter in line with our prior guidance and non-GAAP EPS of $1.20 was $0.05 above the high-end of our guidance range. Importantly, our Q1 results include a new interim agreement with Huawei, which contributed $150 million of revenue in the quarter. As discussed last quarter, our Q1 guidance had not included any contribution from Huawei because the final payment under the previous interim agreement was recognized in retained earnings pursuant to our adoption of ASC 606 in Q1. QCT delivered revenues of $3.7 billion and an EBT margin of 16% for the quarter above our prior guidance range of 13% to 15%. The operating margin reflects improvements in gross margins and lower operating expenses driven by our continued focus on driving operating efficiencies. MSM chip shipments of 186 million units came in modestly above the midpoint of our guidance range. QTL generated revenues of $1 billion in the quarter including $150 million from the successful negotiation of the Huawei interim agreement. This new agreement was signed in our first fiscal quarter and runs through the third fiscal quarter of 2019. Under the agreement, we will receive $150 million for each of those three quarters. Relative to our previous expectations, which had excluded any revenue from the interim agreement licensing revenues were lower by a $150 million to $200 million in the quarter. Given the headwinds facing the market broadly, we have reduced our global 3G, 4G device forecasts for the calendar year '18 to the low-end of our previous guidance range consistent with lower royalty units in the December quarter. Emerging regions and China were responsible for the largest shortfall in units relative to expectations although the lower levels of demand appear to be fairly widespread. The weaker global unit market accounted for the majority of the revenue impact in the quarter along with some mix effects. Against this backdrop, we continued to demonstrate disciplined execution on our cost reduction plan. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were $1.56 billion down 15% sequentially and well below the low-end of the guidance range. Maintaining our focus on our OpEx efficiency remains a top priority and we're on track to deliver against our $1 billion cost reduction plan excluding excess litigation. Expenses in the first quarter also benefited from lower than expected litigation spend due to timing and the effects of a weaker stock market on re-evaluation of deferred compensation allegation. As a reminder, there is a corresponding offset on the deferred compensation liabilities in our investment income. So there is no net EPS benefit. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was a benefit of 40%. This is in line with the benefit we included in our guidance for the quarter. Today, we have executed on $22.2 billion in share repurchases of the $30 billion authorization we announced last July. This includes $5.1 billion through a Dutch auction and $16 billion under our ongoing ASR programs executed in the fall of last year. As of today January 30, the ASRs are approaching 40% completion and the average repurchase price to-date is approximately $61. As a reminder, the ASR settle at the average trading price less a discount over the life of the agreements. The ASR agreements are scheduled to end in early September 2019. Let's now turn to our financial outlook for the second fiscal quarter of 2019. We estimate fiscal second quarter revenues to be in the range of $4.4 billion to $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $0.65 to $0.75. We expect QTL revenues to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion including the $150 million under the interim agreement. We expect the market factors that we saw in Q1 to persist with continued softness in the handset market and weaker overall mix of devices. We expect fiscal second quarter QTL EBT margin to be approximately 54% to 58%. In QCT, we estimate approximately $150 million to $170 million MSM chip shipments for the fiscal second quarter down sequentially as a result of typical volume seasonality, market weakness particularly in the low and mid tiers, timing of OEM product launches and overall competitive dynamics. Lower MSM units admit in low tiers is offset by favorable product mix due to seasonality and broader adoption of our newly launched Snapdragon 800 chipset. We expect this mix shift to drive significantly higher revenue per MSM in the fiscal second quarter. We expect QCT EBT margins to be between 13% and 15%. We anticipate fiscal second quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to increase by 6% to 8% sequentially due to higher litigation spend and the impact of the counter reset of normal employee tax costs. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A sequential growth is also being impacted by the expected absence of the revaluation adjustment for our deferred compensation liabilities which benefited OpEx in Q1. We remain on track to deliver $1 billion in cost savings from our $7.4 billion baseline. At present, we have achieved approximately $850 million of savings toward our $1 billion target. However, due to excess litigation, we are tracking somewhat above the $6.4 billon run rate. Nevertheless, we are on track to deliver the $1 billion in operating savings and expect additional savings post licensing resolution as litigation costs come down. Non-GAAP interest expense, net of investment and other income in the fiscal second quarter is expected to be approximately $100 million, which is in line with our prior guidance and is a reasonable estimate for each of the remaining quarters in fiscal 2019. Turning to fiscal 2019, we expect our non-GAAP annual effective tax rate in fiscal 2019 to be approximately 0% and reflects both the run rate impacts of tax reform and the fiscal first quarter impacts of our tax restructuring. Excluding the first quarter benefit, we estimate a non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 12% for the rest of fiscal '19. We now expect calendar year 2018 3G, 4G device estimates to be at the low-end of our prior guidance range. For calendar year 2019, we are revising the device forecast to be in the range of 1.85 billion to 1.95 billion units which at the midpoint is a reduction of 50 million units from our prior forecast. This reduction is entirely attributable to handset market softness. We expect handsets shipments to be up 1% percent year-over-year with non-handset devices driving overall unit growth up 5% at the midpoint of guidance. Despite this, we anticipate improving conditions for our chip business in the second half of the year as a result of new product launches including devices with 5G chipsets and growth in our adjacent businesses. That includes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Mauricio.
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Q - Chris Caso:
Yes. Thank you. Just with regard to the MSM business and the guidance you provided, it looked like that had been running down about 20% year-on-year in December. I think your guidance reflects down 15% in March. Recognizing that that includes a rather large design loss, what would you characterize that the continuing business what would that be running on a year-on-year basis is perhaps a better indicator of the underlying business?
George Davis:
This is George. Chris you're correct in citing that the real difference year-over-year in Q1 was driven by the thin modem business share change at Apple. We're actually seeing strong positioning in our products really everywhere else. And if we're seeing any weakness in the guide it's really in low tier units, which is partially seasonal and also just I think a reflection of the economy in China.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. We can add one thing. As George said we see that on the low end of the units, but we continue to see a favorable product mix towards the higher features smartphones and we expect that trend to continue especially important as we look at the launch of 5G technology towards the later part of '19 and 2020.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great thanks. I'm going to follow on to Cristiano's comments there at the end. Could you just update us about how we should think about revenue per MSM trends? Clearly a stronger mix implied in your guidance, but could you talk maybe about the RF attach rate and what this could do to the calculation of revenue per MSM or maybe just talk about the RF opportunity and how much your RF business could grow as 5G takes off over the next couple of years? Thank you.
George Davis:
Hey, Mike. It's George. Maybe I'll cover off on the revenue per MSM. What we're seeing is even with a softness in the marketplace our premium tier devices continue to be strong and growing both year-over-year and quarterly, which is really a testament to the new products. And we're also seeing continued strength in the high-end mid tier overall. So, revenue per MSM and in what is normally seasonally challenging second quarter is going to be quite healthy as your back of the envelope calculation is correct. It should be a very strong revenue per MSM and quarter for us.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mike let me just answer your second part on the RF front-end. We see right now our RF front-end business excluding the impact of Apple. Outside Apple continue to see growth continue to see double-digit growth rates in their business as we head into 2019. But most important, this trend of moving towards higher end devices especially with the transition of 5G is was one data point that we like for the absolute majority of the 5G designs we have on the recently announced 855 or the x50 modem, we have RF front-end attach and we're very pleased with their metric.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Tim Wong with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Wong:
Thank you. If I could just ask a two parter on China. First, on the chip business there was some mention about macro and a challenging end markets would love your perspective on the market? And also, George I think you've mentioned for the QCT, the MSM sequential down competitive dynamics as one part of that. So, should we take that to read more low-end competition, or potential share loss in China? And then, on the flip side, if we just get an update on the QTL business in China obviously the Huawei deal is pending, but could you talk a little bit about compliance and just how the licensing deals are going with the rest or the longer tail of Chinese OEMs? Thank you.
George Davis:
Yes. So just to answer your question on the competitive dynamics. We continue to see pressure at some of the lower tier devices. And so, which we see down in Q2 some of it is we believe based on share loss and some is based on just the size of the market which you would typically see pullback seasonally on that. I would say China overall has been probably the -- while it's been extremely good for Qualcomm overall, if we look at '18, compared to our expectations going into '18, demand in China has been substantially lower than we would have estimated for total demand in China not speaking to our share in this case which has led us -- is one of the factors that led us to put the estimates for the calendar year '18 units down to the low-end of our guidance range from last quarter. I will let -- were you going to jump in…
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. I'm was just going to add one thing. So, Tim on the chip business, I think there is, as George outlined, there's competitive dynamics on the low end. But the biggest factor really seasonality of product launches. So many of our customers probably have product launches in in the coming quarter and it's just typical seasonality. We've seen overall China has been a good story for us. And again, the most important thing is they move towards the higher end devices.
Alex Rogers:
This is Alex stepping in on the QTL question. The story with China also is good on the QTL outside. Under our new 5G FTC licensing program, we now have over 35 new licensees or licensees signed up to the new agreements and amendments and a good significant number of those are Chinese OEMs. So, the licensing program is doing well in China including with respect to compliance.
Tim Wong:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the revisions to your market outlook. So, you're taking your global units down I guess to the low-end of the range a few points versus where you were. But your QTL revenues right now excluding the Huawei settlement are running 900 million give or take. That's more than 10% lower than your prior outlook which was like $1 billion to $1.1 billion. So how do I reconcile that I guess with your comments on where you're seeing the weakness in the market which seems to be more like a low end it seems to imply that ASPs would have to be down a lot given the revenue you're blushing since you're down more than the unit revision. I guess how do we think about the trends of units in ASPs playing out and what effect that's having on your QTL revenues right now.
George Davis:
Yes. Really what you're seeing Stacy is the adjustment that comes from the change in reported units which is consistent with what we're seeing in the numbers that we're now using to revise our guide. I would also say in -- you get some of the dynamics in our outlook that relate to how much in a given quarter is reflected by OEMs that are not paying on their licenses and reporting and those that are. And so, one of the things that you'll see is, we're actually -- while we're seeing market conditions overall worsen in Q2 when you adjust for the Huawei payment. We're seeing modest improvement in the underlying revenue for QTL. And that really reflects the fact of the mix of the parties in there.
Stacy Rasgon:
Are you seeing improvement, I mean, in Q2 of last year actual Huawei pavement you did like 965 and you're guiding [indiscernible] Huawei payment, this time 900, it is still down pretty, decently isn't it?
George Davis:
You're talking about Q2 in terms of an apples to apples comparison factor.
Stacy Rasgon:
Yes.
George Davis:
Yes. I think again I would say the market if I did apples to apples comparison, I would say the market is down basically modestly compared to that quarter where we had that very low demand quarter out of China that we talked about. And I think that's the biggest factor, but it's -- we do see it down somewhat but not as much as you might have expected because of dynamics in -- what was effectively Q3 last year.
Stacy Rasgon:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Matt Ramsay:
Thanks guys. Good afternoon. I guess a couple of things. The first just to follow on to Stacy's question. I guess a lot of the data that we're seeing is globally not related to your QTL revenues, but just globally out of the smartphone market isn't great. And I guess Cristiano talked about launches in the second quarter potentially that will help that. But an up 5% unit growth for the whole industry seems a bit aggressive. And maybe that embeds growth in auto and some other areas. So maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the market that that leads you to think the smartphone market is going to grow this year? And then, secondly, George any additional thoughts a lot of investors asking me about additional breakouts in QCT to reflect some of the adjacency businesses in the revenue versus just one line. Any thoughts that would be helpful. Thank you.
George Davis:
Yes. This is George. I'm going to take the -- I'll take a little bit on the device forecast. Just to be clear the up 5% includes non-handsets as well and that's where you're getting the growth -- the real growth year-over-year. We've said 1% growth in handsets over '18. And '18 was down 1% over '17. We're still seeing in our forecast we see continued softness we expect the developed handset demand to be down. We think that's the replacement rates as people start to think about 5G devices coming into the marketplace. And then, you're not seeing as big a impact in '19 from China as you saw in '18. But you're also not seeing quite the growth in some of the other emerging markets including India. So, we see more modest growth out of the emerging markets in '19, but overall handsets. That puts you at about flat to 1%.
Cristiano Amon:
This is Cristiano. Just want to add one important data point. So, you have the overall market dynamic, but then you have the chip business, one thing that we see happening when we think of our China business and we see that accelerating as many of our customers had expended globally outside China domestic especially now from Southeast Asia, India and LATAM going into Europe, we've seen our customers starting business in U.K., Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and France and that's an addition and it's a good trend to the chip business. Thank you.
George Davis:
And we'll look to have I think a more robust discussion on the adjacent as we get to an analyst meeting which we think is the right environment to go into that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
James Faucette:
Great. Thank you very much. I want to turn back to some of the comments that Steve made around licensing in asserting Qualcomm's IP portfolio. You talked about China [indiscernible] cases there. Can you just update us as to what -- how you're feeling about the need to assert and eventually put in place IP licensing over non-essential IP for the Chinese OEMs. And that is the case with Apple have any implications there? This is my first question and I guess kind of related to that how are you thinking about or specifically as it relates to Huawei and the interim payment they are been making. Can you give us an estimate of what Qualcomm estimates may be do under the previous licensing agreements? And help us understand what that delta might be. Thank you very much.
Donald Rosenberg:
James. This is Don Rosenberg. I'll start, Alex may want to chime in. So, with respect you -- good point about the value of our NEPs as well as SEPs they often seem to get lost in the discussion. You probably know that actually a majority of those 130,000 or so patents that Steve -- applications that Steve referred to earlier are in fact NEPs. Also, all the lawsuits we brought around the world against Apple involve NEPs non-essential patents. And as Steve has indicated, we've been very successful so far and we've got a number of cases that are going to be rolling out over the course of this year almost every month. There's a significant milestone in terms of either hearings or final rulings in Germany and China and in the U.S. and the ITC and district courts here. So, the value of our overall portfolio is extraordinarily high. And it's certainly something we constantly think about when we look at our licensing program. And one point that I think people often miss is that we started this licensing program what almost three decades ago and there were no standard essential patents in our portfolio at the time because we weren't even in the standard yet we were licensing that portfolio. We continued to license that portfolio essentially at the same terms as our patent portfolio grew with standard essential patents and non-standard essential patents into the numbers that Steve was talking about.
Alex Rogers:
This is Alex. James let me just respond to some -- the first part of your question. I think Don is correct that we've demonstrated significant value in our non-essential patents. But I think again you have to step back and take a look at what we've done over the last four years or so. We have really done a very good job of establishing an SEP only portfolio licensing program both inside of China and now outside of China. But despite the fact that we continue to sign up significant numbers of SEP only licensees, we still have a very good number -- a very significant number of licensees that choose to keep portfolio wide agreements. And so that's a very significant mix in the overall licensing program. So, I think that the overall program is heading in the right direction. We've got a few issues to deal with in terms of the Apple litigation. But right now, I think the focus is on successfully establishing the 5G program which we have done over the course of the last 12 months. In terms of the Huawei interim agreement that's a minimum non-refundable agreement. I don't know that I would get into the overall numbers in terms of what's at issue. I think we'll just leave it at that.
James Faucette:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross Seymore:
Hi guys. Thanks for let me ask a question. I want to return to the QCT side, kind of a two-part question. First, last quarter when you guided, you cited not only the obvious issue sequentially with Apple, but also China inventory burns. So I want to see what the update was on that is the weakness you're pointing to in MSMs in 1Q. Just demand or is there inventory burn and if so how much longer will that last? And then, the revenue per MSM side of the equation. obviously, a big pop up in your fiscal 2Q guide. How should we think about that continuing through the rest of the year? Just the 5G side obviously come in as a tailwind, and then, how does China and answer to the first part of the question potentially weigh against that. Thank you.
George Davis:
Hey, Ross. This is George. Again, I think we've definitely seen sell-through ahead of sell-in continue in China. So, inventory continues to come down whether it reflects the new normal yet what we'll have to see, but that certainly was part of it. But again, the overwhelming year-over-year effect was just related to the one customer. I think on revenue per MSM as we start to see 5G pickup and additional premium tier devices increase that's definitely going to be a tailwind for revenue per MSM. We haven't forecasted it out yet, but we think that'll certainly be a tailwind force both not only at the end of this year but as we go as we ramp 5G in 2021.
Ross Seymore:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Hi. Thanks. Question for Steve or George. There was a lot of testimony in the trial in the past couple of weeks that Apple wanted to buy your modem, but you would not sell it to them. That's for the current phones. But now, Intel is talking about the XMM 8160, which is going to ship in the back half of this year. So obviously there's going to be a performance difference, but that's a 5G modem. So, is that enough to get them to the table? Is the performance difference enough? And then, I guess as a follow-on to that what would the deadline be for them to settle, and then, be able to get your modem in their phone for the fall? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
This is Steve. I would say -- we feel very, very comfortable with where our roadmap is relative to the competitors. It doesn't mean there aren't a lot of competitors out there but we feel like we have a very, very strong position across the board. And if you look at a feature set, you look at power size everything. We feel very strong about it. In terms of when a person would need to make a decision, it's hard for me to say typically you need to make decisions kind of in the first quarter of this year if you're going to impact products that are going into next year. That would be my typical side, but I couldn't speak for other folks. Some OEMs particularly the Asian OEMs move a little bit more quickly but that would be my general sense for what the timing is.
Timothy Arcuri:
Okay, Steve. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks for taking the question. Actually, maybe just following on that in terms of the 5G landscape you mentioned you had the majority that early wins here. Just kind of curious your visibility into next year and you just comment on the landscape how diverse the 5G landscape would be next year in shipping phone?
Cristiano Amon:
Thanks. This is Cristiano. One of the things we like about 5G; 5G it's not a static target, it's a moving target. There is a multiple variations of 5G capabilities. And as soon as we launch we continue to see that increasing from sub-six to millimeter wave to new cores and care aggregation and we have now basically line of sight to a number of devices that will be continuously being added to the market as we have most developed economies launching 5G in the second half of '19. So, we're very optimistic about how fiscal '20, how significant 5G will be for us.
Steve Mollenkopf:
This is Steve. I might add one other thing to that which is -- don't -- there are a number of different mode changes. If you look at how the network will operate and the number of bands that you need to deal with between now and really the next 24 months. So -- and I think if you're not involved in that at the beginning you're going to have a very difficult time, I think fielding a solution that is competitive at any given time if you show up too late that's one of the advantages of being early and one of the reasons why we try to make sure that we're there. The other aspect I think that we should also acknowledge is that I think there's a lot of concern early on with 5G, as would the handsets be at the right size or would they be at a size that that people would find attractive particularly given all the RF complication that exists. And what we have seen from early indications that is not something to be worried about. They are very, very attractive ideas. So, I think it's going to be really an important part of the industry. The other aspect that I just make sure people remember about 5G is the economics to the operator. They really have an incentive to push this. And I think you're going to not only see that in the handsets, you're going to see that in the people selling the devices, the channels that the salespeople will be incentivized to press 5G. And so, we look forward to having that happen over the next year or so.
Cristiano Amon:
And please stay tuned to this year of Mobile World Congress. I think will be very exciting in this area.
Blayne Curtis:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess if I could squeeze two in. First one, as you think about non-handset growth driving the up 5%. Could you share with us what the implied non-handset unit growth is and how you think about the implications to both royalties and MSM ASP. And then just as a quick follow-up question, based this question on QTL, I think you're guiding that up 3% at the midpoint. I'm a little surprised it's higher Q-on-Q given the FX headwinds and unit volumes out there, are there any sort of catch up payments or things like that we should be considering in there. Thank you.
George Davis:
Now no real big anomalies in that respect. So, it's really more the mixed element that we talked about. In terms of non-handset growth again to get to 5% overall growth, you've got to see something like 27% growth in the non-handsets to get to that. That is largely driven by growth in IoT. Obviously, you still see growth in everything from automotive to compute. But, it's really IoT and we're certainly seeing strong growth in industrial IoT in our own business there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Srini Pajjuri:
Thank you for taking my question. Steve, I want to go back to your comment about the FTC litigation. You said you're still negotiating with FTC. And given that the closing arguments are done, do you think you have enough time to reach a potential settlement, and then, how are you feeling about it? And then, hypothetically if the ruling were to go against you, what are some of the options that you have going forward? And then, in the interim, I do think -- do you anticipate any changes to your business model? Well if you are appealing or any other options that you're exploring?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. Well, I'll take the first part of that and then maybe ask Don to jump in on the second part. With respect to settlement talks with the FTC as you might imagine we have been engaged with them for some time. We continue to be engaged. And if we think that we can find a resolution we would take that to try to remove this risk off the table not a statement on how we feel about our case. But as you might imagine this is an important element and we continue to work it. I think the judge gave some direction at the end of trial in terms of when she might rule. And I would just point you to that in terms of timing, but we have the ability to continue to work this and as you would expect we are.
Donald Rosenberg:
Yes. This is Don, Srini. With respect to the judge's comments at the end, she didn't actually say when she would rule, but she did indicate over the last couple of hearings that this is a complicated case and she'll probably take more time than she might otherwise. We think we've put on an extraordinarily strong case here, so we're not obviously going to comment or predict outcomes when a case is now before the judge for ruling. But I can only tell you that we think that the government failed to prove what we thought was an ill-conceived theory. They still had a burden. We don't think they supported it with any convincing evidence at all. Indeed, I think we made the case as this industry and these people know -- you people on this call know for a very competitive industry that we have facilitated over the years through our licensing program. And so, we are hoping for obviously a victory here. And that's what we are focused on and we are not going to talk about possibilities until we faced them. I would say this, the judge, as she indicated this is the complicated case and based on what she has been asked and not asked by the FTC for in terms of a ruling. It's going to have to a weight a particular ruling if she would go the other way because there are multiple variations of what that ruling might be and so we couldn't comment on the possibilities.
Srini Pajjuri:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. Thank you. Thanks everyone for joining us today. This would be I think a very important quarter not only due to legal milestones but also just continued innovation from the team and continued milestones for 5G. Thanks everybody from Qualcomm for working so hard. And we will talk to you again next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc. Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc. George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc. Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc. Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc. Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.
Analysts:
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm fourth quarter and fiscal 2018 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 7, 2018. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International callers please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13684055. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf, who is speaking from our offices in China.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report a strong set of results this quarter, as we continued to execute on our strategic priorities to drive technology and product leadership, particularly in 5G, manage our operating expenses, and return capital to our stockholders. Fiscal 2018 was an extraordinary year in the history of Qualcomm. We successfully navigated through many challenges, yet remained focused on execution and the significant opportunities in front of us. I believe we enter fiscal 2019 a stronger company and extremely well-positioned for the future. Our fiscal fourth quarter results reflect continued strong performance, with non-GAAP earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.05 above the high end of our guidance range, reflecting better than expected QCT performance and lower operating expenses. The growth of our leading customers in China was a positive for the company in the fiscal fourth quarter, both on volume and improving mix of devices. We expect further growth from our China business in fiscal 2019, particularly in the second half of the fiscal year. The combined impact of Apple instructing their contract manufacturers to stop paying their contracted royalty payments and Apple's decision to use a competitor's modem for their latest device has had a significant impact to our financial performance. Notably, over 50% of the expected fiscal 2019 headwind related to Apple is reflected in our first fiscal quarter guidance and impacts our QCT business. As we progress through the year, this will become less impactful to our quarterly results. Despite this, as you can see from our results, we are continuing to execute well with our customers. Importantly, we've laid a strong foundation for growth as we differentiate through our industry-leading innovation ahead of some very big opportunities, including the launch of 3G (sic) [5G] (4:00), the ramp of our RF front-end business, as well as industry transitions in Wi-Fi and the connected car. Looking ahead to fiscal 2019, the entire company remains focused around these three key priorities. Priority number one is to drive the transition to 5G. When the world is introduced to 5G early next year, we believe we will be the technology partner in nearly all the commercial launches around the world. This position is no small accomplishment. Transitions in wireless like 3G, 4G, and 5G are unforgiving to companies and competitors that are late to these transitions, especially in the initial ramp years. Our focus and investment priorities over the last couple of years have enabled us to successfully establish a strong technology position and lead the 5G industry transition, which will represent a significant opportunity for Qualcomm to expand revenue and earnings as we exit fiscal 2019. Just as 5G launch dates were accelerated by one year from the original timeline, we also expect the pace of 5G adoption to meet or exceed that of 4G. The first mobile 5G network launches will begin in the second calendar quarter next year, and there will be commercial launches occurring simultaneously across North America, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. In total, we are working with more than 18 OEMs who have committed to launch 5G handsets in 2019 based on our 5G and our X50 modems. We believe that Qualcomm is the leader in 5G, with the ability to launch sub-6-gigahertz, millimeter wave, standalone and non-standalone 5G. Furthermore, 5G brings an order of magnitude increase of complexity over 4G across spectrum, network dark architecture, RF front-end, device form factors, especially the millimeter wave frequencies, power consumption and application and AI processors. This complexity plays directly to Qualcomm's strength as an innovator and systems provider. Priority number two is resolving our dispute with Apple. Regarding Apple, our view on the timeline to resolve our licensing dispute has not changed. We have previously highlighted key litigation milestones in fiscal 2019 that we believe could help drive a resolution. Those litigation milestones have not changed, including the potential for multiple patent infringement rulings in China and Germany before the end of this calendar year. Aside from infringement of unlicensed intellectual property and other claims, including the recent product-related claims, there are billions of dollars in damages in the breach of contract claims against Apple's manufacturers. We expect a trial date to be set for that matter in San Diego during the early part of next year. We have continued to have discussions with Apple to try and reach a resolution, and we remain focused on driving the appropriate value for our stockholders, either through settlement or litigation. Resolution of the outstanding licensing disputes represents significant value to our shareholders and provides the foundation for very strong earnings growth, separate and apart from the 5G opportunities we have described. Priority number three is to execute well across our core product businesses. The strategic decisions we made to diversify our revenue in our mobile channel while expanding into adjacent opportunities is working. Our engagement with customers across multiple industries continues to expand, and our QCT business outside of Apple continues to grow. Our Snapdragon 800 solutions continue to define the premium tier benchmarks, and we expanded our leadership to the high tiers with Snapdragon 700. Consistent with our expectations, the product mix is improving in the China region, and key Qualcomm China-based customers are gaining share globally, most recently in India and Europe. In fiscal 2018, our non-Apple RF front-end revenue nearly doubled year over year, reflecting the full-year impact of the TDK acquisition and revenue growth across all key OEMs, leveraging one of the broadest portfolios of RF front-end products in the industry. Given our strong design win pipeline, we expect to grow RF front-end revenues by double-digit percentage in fiscal 2019. In 4G, our RF front-end traction includes 80 module design wins across key OEMs such as Samsung, Google, Sony, LG, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, and OnePlus. Importantly, current commercial devices such as the Pixel 3, Pixel 3XL, Samsung Galaxy Book 2, and Sony ZX3 all have our complete RF front-end modem to antenna solution. We are pleased to have established RF front-end design wins at major accounts in a mature 4G technology cycle going against more than four RF front-end suppliers. This validates the competitiveness of our components across PAs, filters, switches, tuners, and modules. In 5G, we are well-positioned with design wins at all our key Snapdragon 800 customers. The added complexity of 5G is also driving additional RF content per device, including combinations of sub-6-gigahertz and millimeter wave. As an example, a large number of 5G smartphones in the United States will require millimeter wave capabilities at launch. Across our adjacent opportunities, we are continuing to see exciting traction for our technologies and products in these new growth industries. In auto, our integrated platforms are driving leadership and growth across telematics, infotainment, and in-car connectivity, with an order pipeline of more than $5 billion, up from $3 billion earlier this year. We are leading 5G innovation in cars and have secured the world's first major 5G design win with a leading automaker, and we are working with numerous other automakers and Tier 1 suppliers to bring 5G to vehicles. Infotainment is a particularly strong story for us given our very strong long-term order pipeline with a broad set of key global customers. In networking, we remain the number one share leader in retail and enterprise channels and continue to gain share. We are also number one in mesh Wi-Fi, which accounted for 50% of all U.S. retail Wi-Fi network equipment sales during the first half of 2018. In fiscal 2018, leveraging our success with Wi-Fi mesh, we have expanded into the carrier segment and have significant design traction headed into fiscal 2019. Historically, we have benefited from technology transitions, and we are now driving industry adoption of 802.11ax, now called Wi-Fi 6, with more than 50 design wins in the pipeline. Looking ahead to 60-gigahertz Wi-Fi, we just announced the industry's first 802.11ay chipset, recently-announced 802.11ad devices from NETGEAR and ASUS, and are working with Facebook on the Terragraph project. Turning to QTL, fiscal 2018 results were impacted by the disputes with Apple and its contract manufacturers as well as the other licensee. However, global 3G/4G device trends were favorable, driven by strong trends in average selling prices. Our number of 5G licensing agreements is growing, with more than 20 agreements signed to date based on our previously-announced 5G licensing framework, including Meizu and Motorola Lenovo, and we have significantly more manufacturers in discussions for 5G agreements and amendments, positioning QTL for stability as the 5G transition gains momentum. On regulatory matters, we are pleased to announce in August that we reached a court-approved settlement with the Taiwan FTC. As a result, the underlying decision was revoked and replaced by the terms of the resolution. Regarding the U.S. FTC, we continue our discussions to work toward a resolution outside of the current litigation. Yesterday, the court issued a ruling in the case regarding licensing practices of certain standards organizations. This is a partial summary judgment ruling on one of the issues, and a full trial is still to come next year. In our view, the ruling is incorrect. In addition to the product and technology actions I have discussed, we are driving operating leverage into our business by delivering on our operating expense commitments. With the potential resolution of our dispute with Apple in front of us, we believe there is a very substantial opportunity to grow value for our stockholders that is incremental to the strength of the current business. The combination of these elements leaves us well-positioned to drive stockholder value throughout fiscal 2019 and beyond. Finally, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and focused execution throughout the past year. Our team has made great progress on our important strategic objectives, and we are extremely well-positioned for the upcoming transition to 5G and to grow into the many exciting new industries that are adding our leading-edge technologies to their products in fiscal 2019 and beyond. I would now like to turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with comments on our fiscal fourth quarter and 2018 results, followed by our fiscal first quarter of 2019 guidance and some additional perspective on 2019 overall. In our fiscal fourth quarter, results were strong, with revenues of $5.8 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.90, above the high end of our prior guidance range. Revenues benefited primarily from stronger than expected demand for chips from Chinese customers. Non-GAAP EPS results exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $0.10. $0.06 of that impact was driven by operating performance in QCT and QTL and from lower operating expenses. The remaining $0.04 was driven by favorable tax impacts and lower share count from our repurchase activity. QCT delivered revenues of $4.6 billion and an EBT margin of 17%, driven by strength in MSM chip shipments of 232 million, above the high end of our guidance range on stronger than expected demand from Chinese OEMs. In QTL, revenues were $1.14 billion, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range, and EBT margin was 65%, better than expected, reflecting lower operating expenses, largely from litigation spending. We also recognized $100 million of revenue from the other licensee in dispute under the interim agreement. In our fiscal fourth quarter, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were down 1% sequentially on cost reduction actions and lower than expected excess litigation expense more than offsetting the impact of an extra week of operations in the fiscal fourth quarter. Our non-GAAP tax rate was a 1% benefit in the quarter, lower than our prior expectations, reflecting a modest benefit related to tax restructuring completed in the quarter. Now, turning to fiscal 2018, non-GAAP revenues for the year were $22.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.69. We returned $26 billion to stockholders in fiscal 2018, including approximately $3.5 billion of cash dividends paid, an increase of 7% year over year, and $22.6 billion in share repurchases, largely via our accelerated programs, including a $5.1 billion Dutch auction and a $16 billion ASR. In terms of average price realized under the ASR, that will be based on ratable pricing over the term of the ASRs, which will run through August 2019. Turning to 3G/4G devices, for calendar year 2018, we continue to forecast approximately 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion 3G/4G device shipments, growth of approximately 5% year over year at the midpoint. Our forecast for handset unit shipment growth in the year is approximately 100 million units lower than our forecast at the outset of the year on lower demand in both developed and emerging regions, particularly in China. Global device sales have been less impacted, as global handset ASPs have been better than expected, growing more than 10% year over year in fiscal 2018. In QCT, we saw strong performance in fiscal 2018, with 8% year-over-year growth in earnings before tax dollars and EBT margin at 17%, with strong demand trends in China, particularly in the mid and high tiers, offsetting the impact of lower share at Apple. In QTL, results in fiscal 2018 were significantly impacted by the disputes with Apple and the other licensee and by the related litigation costs. These dynamics mask the strong global device sales growth in fiscal 2018, as higher handset ASPs across multiple price tiers made up for the modest handset unit growth. Looking at handsets in the fiscal year, we estimate that global sales grew 13%, driven by 1% unit growth and 11% ASP growth. Let's now turn to our financial outlook for the first fiscal quarter of 2019. We estimate fiscal first quarter revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.5 billion to $5.3 billion. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $1.05 to $1.15 per share. Our first quarter estimate assumes continuing nonpayment of royalties by Apple and the other licensee. As we have noted on previous calls, the impact of these nonpayment of royalties has largely eliminated the seasonal effects that we would normally see in QTL. Our fiscal first quarter outlook also reflects the change in our share in Apple from approximately 50% modem share in our fiscal first quarter 2018 to zero share in the flagship launches in our first fiscal quarter 2019. We have also seen our RF front-end share at Apple drop in the current launch. I will discuss the impacts here in more detail shortly. More than offsetting the demand and share impacts in the quarter is a one-time estimated benefit of approximately $0.45 of deferred tax asset impacts resulting from tax elections made in the first quarter of fiscal 2019 as part of our previously announced tax restructuring. We anticipate fiscal first quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be down approximately 5% to 7% sequentially, primarily reflecting one less week of operations. Our cost management efforts will be somewhat muted in the quarter due to timing of certain divestitures expected to be completed later in the fiscal year. In QTL, we expect revenues of $1 billion to $1.1 billion in the fiscal first quarter. As a reminder, we are adopting revenue accounting standard 606 in the first quarter, which results in us moving from reporting QTL revenue in arrears to estimating revenues in the period our licensees sell their products. ASC 606 requires us to report revenue in a manner that will include an estimate of our QTL royalty revenues before all information is received from our licensees. This will lead to quarterly true-ups against reported numbers. Despite the change in revenue recognition method, we continue to expect revenues to range between $1 billion and $1.1 billion quarterly in the near term, as we see more muted seasonality on the absence of Apple licensing revenues. This range also excludes any payments from the other licensee in dispute under the $700 million interim agreement signed in fiscal 2018. As a reminder, the final $100 million payment received under that interim agreement is being taken to retained earnings and not reported in the P&L as a result of the transition to ASC 606. We expect fiscal first quarter QTL EBT margin to be approximately 53% to 57%, lower sequentially, reflecting the absence of the $100 million interim payment and a change in R&D cost allocations, which I will discuss shortly. In QCT, we expect approximately 175 million to 195 million MSM chip shipments for the fiscal first quarter, down 20% sequentially at the midpoint, which is a result of one less week in the quarter, lower Apple legacy shipments, and lower demand from China on weaker sell-through following very strong demand in fiscal Q4. Year over year in the first fiscal quarter, we see a large decrease in units, which is fully explained from both a unit and EBT basis by the loss of share in the new Apple devices. We expect the Apple share reduction to be most impactful in our fiscal first quarter. In fiscal 2018, Q1 units represented approximately 50% of the full-year MSM orders from Apple. Compared to the same quarter last year, Apple volumes are expected to be down 50 million to 55 million units. We expect QCT EBT margin to be between 13% to 15% in the quarter, reflecting the lower MSM volumes and the impact from a lower mix of modem sales. We expect a recovery to high teens percentage in the second half of the fiscal year on improved product mix, the initial 5G launches, growth in adjacencies, and the impact of cost actions. We expect QCT's demand profile and EBT in the fiscal second quarter to reflect more muted seasonality, as the normal pullback in Q2 versus Q1 was historically heavily driven by Apple. Non-GAAP interest expense net of investment and other income in the fiscal first quarter is expected to be approximately $100 million, which is a reasonable estimate for each of the remaining quarters in fiscal 2019. We forecast diluted weighted average shares for the first fiscal quarter to be approximately 1.23 billion. Turning to 2019, as Steve mentioned, resolving our two licensee disputes is a key driver for fiscal 2019 performance. Upon resolution, we continue to forecast significant positive revenue and EPS impacts. For calendar year 2019 3G/4G/5G device shipments, we are estimating approximately 1.9 billion to 2 billion units, up approximately 5% at the midpoint, reflecting low single-digit handset growth, driven primarily by migrations to 3G and 4G in emerging regions, and strong double-digit growth for non-handsets. We currently see limited macroeconomic risk to our outlook from the trade dispute between China and the U.S., as there are currently tariff-related impacts on only a limited number of our revenue drivers. For Chinese imports to the U.S., some networking products will be subject to U.S. tariffs, potentially impacting end market demand if the incremental cost is passed to consumers. Cellular phones at present are not currently subject to U.S. tariffs, and for U.S. imports to China, ICs are not currently on the China tariff list. In fiscal 2019, we expect relatively flat global handset average selling prices and low to mid-single-digit percentage handset sales growth year over year, with strength coming from the emerging regions, providing solid end market trends for QTL once the licensing disputes are resolved. We are making some changes with respect to our allocation of certain technology items, predominantly in our corporate R&D spending. With the commercialization of 5G devices in 2019, the spend for device development will be reflected in QCT, consistent with past practice, and the technology development currently in corporate will largely be reflected in QTL. Also moving into QTL is a minority share of some IP technology items previously shown in QCT, but which are related to future technology. The net effect of these changes will be decreased spend in our corporate expenses by approximately $500 million and an increase in QTL expenses of approximately the same amount. The increases and decreases in these R&D changes are solely related to location of reporting in the segments and are not related to the cost reduction program. The cost program remains on track to deliver $1 billion in savings from our $7.4 billion baseline spend. At present, we are trending somewhat above the $6.4 billion run rate, as excess litigation expenses have increased relative to the baseline. However, we are on track to deliver the $1 billion in operating savings and expect additional savings post-licensing resolution as litigation costs will come down significantly. We expect the net effects of the cost reduction in corporate and other plus the change in corporate R&D expense allocation and increased interest expense to result in savings of approximately $300 million in our Other segment outside of our core businesses in fiscal 2019. Our forecast for our non-GAAP tax rate in fiscal 2019 is approximately 3% to 4% and reflects both the run rate tax impacts of tax reform and the fiscal first quarter impacts of our tax restructuring. Excluding the impact of the deferred tax asset item, we expect the non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 15% for the year. We expect fiscal 2019 weighted average diluted shares to be approximately 1.19 billion to 1.2 billion, lower year over year by approximately 280 million shares or 19% of shares outstanding on the full impact of our ASR, the Dutch tender, and open market repurchases. In summary, we expect fiscal 2019 earnings to be heavily weighted toward the back half of the year, as the impacts of a number of factors increase over the next several quarters. We expect QCT to return to year-over-year earnings growth in the second half on growing China OEM share, initial 5G shipments, growth in adjacencies, and margin expansion. Our additional cost actions and share repurchases over the year will further lever our second half performance. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura. Please proceed with your question.
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet:
Yes, thank you. I was hoping you could talk about the dispute with Apple. We've noticed during the quarter that there were judgments in your favor, ITC, for example, but those judgments are coming without any injunctive relief. I'm just curious why this hasn't changed your timeline on resolution. It would seem like this dynamic would allow Apple to kick the can down the road for as long as they can.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Romit, this is Don. I think you got it a little off. So the ITC ruling that you're referring to was the recommendation of the administrative law judge. We've previously given the dates, so that was the initial determination. That now goes to a final determination before the commission. It's true that he found infringement, which we were very pleased with, but he also decided that from his perspective, there shouldn't be an exclusion order issued. We obviously disagree with that, and we have the opportunity before the commission to convince them otherwise.
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet:
In China, what do you expect? Do you think it's going to play out like it has in the U.S., or do you think there could be more punitive actions, for example?
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah, sorry. Your first part of your question, I think, was in China. You were asking about our actions in China?
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet:
Just the process in China and how that might compare to what we've seen so far here in the U.S.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Sure, so I think as I've said in the past, we've got over 20 patent infringement cases in multiple jurisdictions in China, where the IP courts have shown to be very good at protecting intellectual property rights and issuing in many cases injunctions. And so we continue to press those cases, and we remain optimistic about the results of those. We've also, I should say, gone through multiple reviews of the validity of our patents that are at issue in those cases, and we have won all but one, I believe, so there are many validity findings already through the CIPO, the Chinese Intellectual Property Office.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great, thanks. George, I just wondered if you could walk us through some of the changes in your guidance. Earlier in the year when Broadcom was trying to buy you, you shared some financial targets for fiscal 2019. Now you've given us some startup guidance for the year that's going to be lower than those targets. Can you just maybe walk us through some of the things that might have changed, whether it's higher legal costs, a weaker smartphone market, maybe less of a buyback given the timing of NXP? Can you help us reconcile your guidance relative to the one earlier in the year? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Mike. Let me generally characterize it for you. And as we've discussed previously, the extension of the NXP contract, first from April and then to July, and then of course the termination last quarter and then the implementation of our capital return program in August, accounts for a material part of the difference, as accretion is still the biggest single difference in the share repurchase case versus NXP, which came with accretion on day one. And under the share repurchases, we've said it's the combination of the licensing resolution and the share repurchase can actually bring higher accretion than we would have seen with NXP. I think in terms of just looking back to what we see now versus the beginning of last year, clearly we see a weaker handset market in both 2018 and 2019 than we saw at the beginning of the year, and I think that's one of the major factors. I think there's other minor factors like interest rates being higher. You've got some other factors like operating expenses related to what we were referring to as excess litigation being higher. But the key point is the same elements that drove our earnings performance at $5.25 and actually the higher range, which is really how we have discussed our performance post-dispute resolution, those things are all still in front of us, even with a weaker handset market overall. So the key thing is going to be resolution with Apple, and then of course, obviously the various implications of that resolution, whether it includes possible reengagement on products, and then of course, the ultimate accretion that comes with that. We also see, quite frankly, 5G, which ramps in 2020 and 2021, as providing further underpinning to that strong earnings potential.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. If I could just go back to Don, you mentioned, or maybe Steve mentioned in the initial remarks about the FTC complaint and the initial decision and not agreeing with it. Could you just talk a little bit? Just a few of the questions I had, one, I thought Qualcomm had previously been licensing to modem suppliers since they're shipping in the market. And then second, is this potentially risking the whole license royalty rate based on system rather than chip? And then third, if you can just maybe talk about how the FTC may impact or may not impact some of the other Apple or ODM cases that are out there, that would be helpful. Thank you.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah, sure. So the first – let me go back to the order. The first question was with respect to – no, the modem was the third question, wasn't it? Yeah, with respect to the ITC?
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
No, I think it was the FTC.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Sorry, the FTC.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Could you go ahead and repeat your question so we make sure we get the proper answer?
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Sure, it was the FTC. Were you previously licensing to modem suppliers since they are selling to market, what's the impact of a potential decision on chip level versus device level? And then what's the relationship with this case potentially and anything with Apple or the other ODMs?
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Sorry, I've got it now. So on modem licensing, your assumption was right. That is to say that competitive chip makers have been free to sell their chips to device makers. Our practice has been because we license to device makers that competitive chip suppliers can sell to licensed device makers and not have to pay us a license fee, and that's been the case for many, many years. There was a time long ago when we provided some non-exhaustive licenses to some chip makers, but that was in the past. So your point is well taken because there was no need for a license – there is no need for a license on the component level as long as the device makers are licensed, which the industry has practiced since the very beginning of industry practice here. The primary standards bodies have constantly reiterated device-level licensing is the norm, and every player in the industry has followed that process. So that's why I say I think the judge respectfully got it wrong here, and we're looking forward to an opportunity for a full trial later in January. I think I've answered your second question as well, so I'll pass that one. And in terms of the impact, there really is, on ODMs and other Apple situations, there's no immediate impact here. We have licenses, as you know, which remain valid. This is a partial summary judgment, which the judge decided a particular issue in this case. It's not a final judgment, and so we'll just continue advocating our position in court and continue to have multiple licenses around the world, as you know.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay, thank you.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Tim. This is Alex. I'm calling in remotely. Let me just jump in very quickly. On the royalty rate issue, one of the things I think is important to remember is that our licensing program with respect to essential patents in cellular is really properly valued at the system level and the device level. And so the value of this intellectual property is realized at that level, and that doesn't change by virtue of this particular partial summary judgment ruling. The other thing I think is important to keep in mind is that we've dealt with similar issues like this before, for example, in the TFTC matter, and we found a way to resolve it there in a way that's not disruptive to the licensing business and satisfactory to the TFTC obviously. So I just wanted to add a couple of those additional points.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay, thanks for the extra color.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Tim, this is Steve. Also, I would just add. In all of, I would say, the legal detail, I want to make sure the point is not lost. Really our focus here in the near term is really how do we settle the FTC case. It's been public that we've had some discussions in that regard. And that's really where the focus is right now, and there's nothing really in that order that we think complicates that or keeps us from doing that. And in the meantime, we're really not compelled to do anything differently with the business. But that's really where the focus is. Hopefully, that isn't lost in the discussion as well.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is coming from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you, I have two as well. I guess first off, to get towards the high teens operating margin target for QCT, what sort of MSM unit expectations do you have on the back of this? I'm just trying to understand. To go from low teens to high teens, how much of this is going to be volume-driven versus some of the cost take-out benefits that you guys are already implementing? That would be helpful. And then the second question, I think ahead of the FTC, ahead of the judge giving you this preliminary judgment, I think Qualcomm and the FTC had asked for a 30-day deferral to reach some sort of settlement. Does the ruling by the judge in any way prevent you guys from getting to some sort of settlement with the FTC away from the courts? And is that a likely option over the next six to nine months for you guys? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Amit, hi. This is George. I'll cover the MSM. We're seeing both benefits more from mix in our MSM outlook in the second half versus the first half, not so much a volume question, although it's good. But we're continuing to see a trend that we've seen before, which is a very strong volume move from low and mid up into the high and premium tiers, and that continues. And that also relates to the timing of launches in China, which Cristiano is probably better to comment on. Of course, we still expect to see some additional benefit from the cost program as well.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Maybe I'll just make a small comment and hand it over to I think Don on the FTC question. So, Amit, also at the very tail end of fiscal 2019, that's when we're going to start to see the ramp of some of the 5G devices. And it's meaningful volume in fiscal 2020, but the initial launches will also happen at the very end of 2019 fiscal for us. Thank you.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
And I think your question was does the partial summary judgment ruling affect our continuing settlement discussions. And I think as Steve just indicated, we have ongoing settlement discussions with the FTC and we will continue those discussions with the FTC.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is coming from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd like to know why you're including a discrete tax benefit in your Q1 non-GAAP earnings. Did you know it was there when you gave the guidance for 2019 last year? And does that benefit, $0.45, go toward the $5.25 EPS target that your compensation is based on? And if so, why is that there?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Stacy. The timing of the tax adjustment item relates to the timing of the tax restructuring that we've taken. And that's been a process that has been continually under review over the last several months, but it really relates and reflects the timing of the actions. In terms of the compensation, we still are very focused on delivering the numbers that we have talked about and that the board has based the compensation plan for management. And I think the one-time items are not the driving factor in delivering that business or those business results.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Yes, thanks very much, a question for George. I think earlier this year during the Broadcom situation, you guided on adjacency revenue for fiscal 2019 at $7 billion to $8 billion from QCT. Can you give us an update on this? Just give us some sense as to what the December quarter looks like for adjacencies and how you see fiscal 2019 now playing out. And maybe, George, can you give us some insight in terms of QCT sales overall for fiscal 2019? Just now you've given some guidance for December quarter, why we can't get a revenue guide overall for fiscal 2019 for QCT. Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So adjacencies, when we look at the previous forecast, probably the biggest difference is we've seen slower adjacent growth in 2018 than we had forecasted. We start to see recovery to that growth rate in 2019. We also have seen our RF front-end business, which had an Apple component, which was in that forecast, all of that business has moved away from our front-end group. Despite that, absent that, there's been strong growth outside of Apple. In terms of the mix, though, as we've seen some of the favorable business trends that Steve talked about, not only in the win area but in the IoT and in auto, we're actually seeing far less margin EBT impact from the slower growth than what we had forecasted as opposed to what we saw in 2018. With respect to guidance on revenue, our practice, consistent with really what the rest of the industry does, is to give it a quarter out.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
And maybe just to confirm, can you give us any sense as to – you said $7 billion or $8 billion earlier this year. Can you give us a range or any insights on adjacencies for fiscal 2019 now? I understand it's slower growth. And maybe just a separate question for Cristiano. On 5G, when you talk about Snapdragon 800 wins and the RF opportunity as well, can you maybe just frame? What is the revenue opportunity per 5G phone when you're selling a Snapdragon 800 and the RF, the complete RF front end for 5G? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Again, we're not providing an updated guide against the $7 billion to $8 billion. The biggest difference between the range and what we see today is really slower growth in IoT and the impact of the Apple change in our front-end business. But from – again, when I look at the EBT impact relative to our expectation to get to the earnings potential that we talked about, it's a very minor impact overall.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Brett. This is Cristiano. On 5G, we expect 5G to be a significant expansion, even on existing units, both in revenue and earnings for QCT, but also likely to be an expansion of share. And we see two drivers. One is we have a lot more content in the device. Besides the performance of a premium-tier application processor and the 5G modem, we also have high traction on the RF front-end design, including the incremental value you get from millimeter wave modules, which is going to be very important. Certain markets, for example, the United States, will require millimeter wave. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys. You gave guidance before for expense cuts of $1 billion. Can you discuss the linearity? Should we expect a drop in expenses early in the year, or is it going to be even throughout the year? That's for modeling purpose. Second, your guidance for next quarter for MSM shipments was lower than expectations, I believe, that are in line with the Street. Can you discuss the areas of strength and the areas of weakness as you see it next quarter? And how do you refer to the reports about global weakness in demand for smartphones? Thanks.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Great. So on the operating expense linearity, we expect to continue to see operating expenses coming down over the year and more in the back half than we would normally see in a cost reduction program just because of the timing of some of the divestitures that are a part of it but not a key and driving part of it. The other part is just the timing of some roadmap items and when it made sense to take certain actions. So overall, we're very confident that we're on track for that. In terms of the MSM share, maybe I'll just comment on the big deltas. I think the year-over-year is, in some ways, most instructive because that's where you really see the Apple effect. And we're down in the first quarter 55 million units versus where we were last year in the same quarter with Apple, and that's really the effect of zero share. One of the things that I think has made the impact of that harder to see is that, in 2018, we saw very strong demand increase in China, and at the same time, the mix of that demand improved in the high and premium tier. And so the impact of going from 100% to 50% share last year was really addressed by the growth of the non-Apple business. Obviously, this quarter we don't have that same benefit. So you're seeing a front-loaded – which is how Apple ordered last year – so comparatively, a front-loaded Apple environment that we're not participating in.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Maybe I'm just going to add one thing. This is Cristiano, Tal. So if you remove the Apple effect, the seasonality we see in 2019 is very similar to what we saw in 2018. And I think as George outlined, when you look on the MSM shipments versus Street, if you look at it – because, as George said, Apple front-loaded 50 million to 55 million units, you see the strength for the MSM is still with the growth on the non-Apple business. And that's why we're going to continue to see that as we go to the second half when we don't have that Apple impact anymore.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. I had two. George, so just going back to the guidance for fiscal 2019, so is the apples-to-apples number now $4.80 versus the original $5.25 baseline? Is that right?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So, Tim, we're not re-guiding 2019 against the numbers. Again, the largest delta as I look at where we are versus – and again, it depends on whether you're looking at a $5.25 case that had NXP coming in on day one or how do we get to the higher range that we talked about back in January of 2018. It comes down to, again, the largest part of that being the timing effect of when the share repurchase activity started, and also the impact of getting the accretion that comes with a resolution, which then I think we're in a much stronger position. Otherwise, the biggest difference is really the market is a little bit weaker than we had expected before, and the balance being things like, such as I said, the slower growth in adjacents, actually a little bit higher interest rates having an impact, and slightly higher tax rates having an impact.
Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay, George. Thanks. And then there's a lot of moving parts obviously with Apple, but it seems like every call we hear more about a potential for an injunction in China. Maybe that's why they don't want to talk about units anymore, but I'm wondering. What is the catalyst for you to get an injunction? Is it a single one of these infringement cases going your way, which sounds like it might happen this quarter? So I guess the question is could you get an injunction before the end of this year? Thanks.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, this is Don. Yes, as I mentioned, there are over 20 cases that we've filed in various jurisdictions within China. And the vehicle for an injunction is we request an injunction as part of the case. China, unlike some other countries, actually will issue even preliminary injunctions and not wait through a full trial for permanent injunction. But as I said earlier too, they also have a parallel process where the patent office reviews patents for validity, and we've been very successful so far there. So as soon as we get an infringement judgment in our favor, there is a real chance of injunctive relief there.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I had two. First on the MSM side dropping 20%, George, you've said there were a number of things, Apple, extra week, et cetera. Can you just talk about – even if I took the Apple out, on a year-over-year basis it looks like the MSMs are flat to very slightly up. Given the dynamics of taking share in China, I'm surprised that it's not a little bit better than that, so any color on that. And the second unrelated question is on your tax commentary, not for the quarter, but you indicated it would be 15%, I think, for the rest of the fiscal year after fiscal 1Q. Is that correct? And how does that tax rate of 15% change after you resolve the two outstanding disputes?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So let me – maybe I'll start with the tax rate first. You're correct. It's 15% on the remaining quarters, which gets you at roughly 3% to 4% for the full year given the tax benefit in the first quarter. Effectively, the tax restructuring is bringing our offshore revenue onshore, and most of that revenue is going to be subject to the FDII rate, the foreign-derived income rate, which is 13% as opposed to the statutory rate of 21%. And so I think, as we said, I think the mid-teens is still a good number to think about in terms of modeling because of that. The 15% you get pulled up a little bit because not everything falls into that bucket, and so you get pulled up a little on rate from the FDII rate. In terms of the MSMs, I want to make sure I understand. Are you talking about sequential or year over year? Because it's a very different story as we look at sequential versus year over year.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
On year-over-year you're guiding to 185 million units at the midpoint. And if my model is right, I think you did 237 million in the same quarter a year ago. So if I just did the math of taking the 50 million to 55 million units that you said from Apple out of the equation, it seems like you're still only talking 180 million – 182 million units.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Now I've got your question. So the difference – one of the differences, we're seeing some lower demand in China. As we said Q4, part of our outperformance in Q4 was high and premium tier devices in China. And so we're seeing that come down a little bit as sell-through for some of our customers was below expectations. So there's a little bit of a digestion period, and I think that's part of why it looks like we're not getting as much pickup year over year potentially from the growth in China. And by the way, Q1 last year was not a bad quarter for China units either.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thanks. I just wanted to thank everybody for joining us on the call today. We're on the cusp of I think some very big industry transitions that we're well-positioned for' 5G, the ramp of our RF front-end business, and of course, the ramp of the design-in pipeline, particularly in auto. I just want to thank the teams for their hard work. They never took their eye off the ball this year, and I think we're really well positioned as a result going into 5G. Thank you, everyone. We'll talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John T. Sinnott - Qualcomm, Inc. Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc. George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc. Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc. Alexander Rogers - Qualcomm, Inc. Donald J. Rosenberg - Qualcomm, Inc.
Analysts:
Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Chris Caso - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Bernstein Research James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet Matthew D. Ramsay - Cowen & Co. LLC Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Srini Pajjuri - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP Edward. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm third quarter fiscal 2018 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 25, 2018. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 39466129. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John T. Sinnott - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now for comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We reported very strong results this quarter, which I will comment on shortly, but first I want to update you on the status of the NXP transaction. As you've seen from our press release, pending any new material developments, we intend to terminate our agreement to acquire NXP at the end of the day. The decision for us to move forward without NXP was a difficult one. Continued uncertainty overhanging such a large acquisition introduces heightened risk. We weighed that risk against the likelihood of a change in the current geopolitical environment, which we didn't believe was a high probability outcome in the near future. In the end, we determined this was the best path forward for our customers, partners, employees, and stockholders. To say the least, the 21 months since we announced the NXP acquisition have been volatile. In spite of all the potential distractions, Qualcomm and NXP leadership remained focused on laying the foundation for the successful integration of our two companies. I want to personally thank Rick Clemmer and his management team for being tremendous partners and compliment them on the excellent company they have built at NXP. Consistent with our prior commitment to return capital that was previously earmarked for the NXP acquisition, our board has approved a new $30 billion stock repurchase authorization. We intend to execute on a large majority of the authorization by the end of fiscal 2019. The rationale for the NXP acquisition was to accelerate our strategy of growing into adjacent opportunities where mobile compute was becoming ubiquitous. This strategy remains unchanged. Over the past two years, we continued to leverage the powerful industry dynamics of mobile everywhere. The results of these efforts are strongly evidenced in the growth of our adjacencies and RF front-end opportunities, which we estimate will contribute to our fiscal year, ending this September, approximately $5 billion in revenue, up more than 70% in the last two years. In key industries like auto, our pipeline of awarded design wins has expanded dramatically this year to $5 billion, up $2 billion from January, as auto makers and Tier 1 suppliers leverage the strength of our roadmap and begin gearing up for 5G-enabled cars in 2021. Our infotainment solutions account for more than half of the $5 billion pipeline, just four years after we announced our entry in this category. We've continued to gain share in Wi-Fi and have now achieved leading positions in several Wi-Fi segments. Our Snapdragon franchise has moved well beyond mobile devices, becoming the leading platform in areas like AR and VR, and is positioned to be a critical enabler in AI and machine learning at the edge. We are also transforming the notebook segment to a true smartphone experience and are growing our ecosystem of partners, including recently adding Samsung. Our industrial IoT product revenues are also growing rapidly and are on track to double this fiscal year versus two years ago. We anticipate our addressable opportunity in the industrial IoT space to grow at approximately a 20% CAGR over the next few years, and we expect to exceed that growth for our industrial IoT revenues. In the past two years, we brought forward 5G R&D spending to ensure Qualcomm's sustained leadership in the next generation of mobile technologies. Today, with every passing week, carriers around the world are announcing an expansion of their 5G rollouts, and we are a partner in nearly all of them. Our significant investment in 5G leadership will become even more tangible with the early rollouts and device launches in 2019 along with larger deployments in 2020 and beyond. As a complement to our 5G modem leadership, our RF front-end technology will continue to be differentiated in the market, as we bring a systems approach to solve many of the technical challenges of delivering a 5G experience. This transition presents a win-win for us and our customers, enabling us the opportunity to grow our dollar share of content in mobile devices while lowering the total cost for handset OEMs. With continued execution on our growth strategy combined with systematic cost discipline and capital return, we are very well positioned to drive shareholder return in fiscal 2019 and beyond. As you can see from our quarterly results, our business continues to perform well, and the timelines we have previously highlighted to resolve our licensing disputes remain unchanged. Our fiscal third quarter results were very strong, with non-GAAP earnings per share $0.31 above the midpoint of our prior guidance range. Our results reflect continued strong execution across our businesses and continued focus on expense management. In QTL, our third quarter results reflect a $500 million payment from the other licensee that is in dispute with us. This is a partial payment made while the negotiations continue for past royalties due going back to the third quarter of fiscal 2017. The payment does not reflect the full amount of royalties due under their existing licensing agreement, but we believe it is a positive step as we continue the negotiations in an effort to reach a resolution. Also within QTL, we continue to make progress on signing agreements under our new 5G licensing framework. Recently, we have concluded more than 10 multiyear 5G multi-mode handset license agreements, including agreements with Xiaomi and Sharp, and we are in active negotiations with many more OEMs. In QCT, we shipped 199 million MSMs in our third fiscal quarter, above the midpoint of our guidance range, reflecting stronger than expected demand in China due to the strength of our roadmap, particularly our 700 and 800 series Snapdragon solutions. Looking ahead, our fiscal fourth quarter guidance reflects continued favorable trends in our businesses. We estimate calendar 2018 global 3G/4G device shipments to be approximately 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion units, consistent with our prior forecast, and continue to see handset selling prices trending stronger than expected. In QCT, demand for our Snapdragon 845 continues to grow, and we now have more than 130 Snapdragon 845 device designs in development. Consistent with our prior statements, we continue to see our key Chinese OEM partners leveraging our Snapdragon roadmap to improve their products in the domestic Chinese region and grow share in new regions, including Europe. We have also seen very favorable third-party test results with our Snapdragon 845 and X16, X20 modems significantly outperforming other merchant modem solutions in premium-tier devices. We are also seeing further momentum supporting our RF front-end growth strategy and product differentiation, with four design wins of our complete modem-to-antenna solutions. Our gallium arsenide, MMPA, and module solutions have launched in customer premium-tier devices, with more key Tier 1 launches coming this calendar year. We have also made two RF product announcements earlier this week, which are extremely important Qualcomm innovations to help solve the challenging, complex antenna requirements for 5G devices. We announced commercial shipment of the world's first commercial 5G New Radio millimeter-wave RF solution and also announced a fully integrated sub-6 GHz RF solution. These announcements further expand our industry-leading 5G product and technology position, and there are 18 network operators and 20 manufacturers who have selected our X50 5G modem for trials in 5G devices. We are leading the industry to 5G commercialization next year and are pleased to see our OEM partners finalizing their 2019 5G smartphone launch plans. Qualcomm's chipsets are now the leading 5G development platform of choice for operators, infrastructure suppliers, and smartphone OEMs. In closing, we are pleased to report very strong results this quarter and look forward to continuing to update you on our progress across the key strategic areas we have outlined for shareholders. This is a very exciting time for Qualcomm. With 5G approaching, our core technologies of advanced computing, connectivity, and security are continuing to drive growth and disruption in mobile, automotive, IoT, and networking. I will now turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I discuss our quarterly results, I would like to join Steve and thank the NXP team for their partnership and collaboration over the past 21 months. Now turning to the quarter. We are pleased to report very strong fiscal third quarter results with revenue of $5.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.01. As Steve mentioned, these results reflect $500 million of revenue in QTL related to an interim payment with the other licensee in dispute. This is a partial payment made while the negotiations continue for past royalties due going back to the third quarter of fiscal 2017 and does not reflect the full amount of royalties due from the underlying license agreement or our expectations of royalties that will be due once the dispute is settled. The interim agreement provides for an additional $200 million, with $100 million paid in each of the next two quarters. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.01 was $0.31 above the $0.70 midpoint of our guidance range. The partial payment accounted for $0.26, with the remaining $0.05 above the midpoint driven by favorable interest expense, tax rate, and QTL OEM mix during the quarter. QCT earnings before tax was up 6% year over year, representing the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in EBT. EBT margin was 15%, at the high end of our guidance range, on higher volume and favorable product cost initiatives. In QCT, MSM shipments were 199 million, above our 195 million guidance midpoint, on stronger-than-anticipated demand from Chinese OEMs. QCT revenue for the quarter was $4.1 billion, flat on a year-over-year basis, reflecting strong demand from Chinese OEMs, offset by lower demand from Apple. In QTL, excluding the $500 million payment from the other licensee in dispute, revenue was modestly above the midpoint of our prior guidance range on mix. QTL EBT margin was 72%, including the partial payment. Excluding the partial payment, EBT margin was 57%, coming in above our prior guidance range of 50% to 54% on OEM mix as well as lower-than-expected litigation expenses. In our fiscal third quarter, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A was up approximately 1% sequentially, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range. In the fiscal third quarter, excess litigation expenses were approximately $140 million, and we expect litigation expenses to be similar next quarter, as the cases against Apple continue, including hearings in several of our patent infringement cases in the U.S., Germany, and China. We continue to execute on our $1 billion cost plan, and as a result incurred approximately $110 million in restructuring costs, primarily related to severance and asset impairments. These items were excluded from our non-GAAP results. For fiscal 2019, we remain on track to reduce total operating expenses by $1 billion from our prior baseline of $7.4 billion. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate for the quarter was a 6% benefit, lower than our prior expectations, reflecting the change in our estimates of U.S. earnings, principally due to the interim payment in QTL. We returned approximately $1.9 billion to stockholders during the quarter, including approximately $900 million in dividends paid and $1 billion in stock repurchases. Our Q3 cash and marketable securities balance was $36 billion, which excluded $2 billion held to collateralize letters of credit for the NXP acquisition and $2.8 billion restricted for our recent redemption of acquisition-related debt. We ended the quarter with total debt outstanding of $22.5 billion. Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter guidance, we estimate revenue to be in the range of approximately $5.1 billion to $5.9 billion. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $0.75 to $0.85 per share. We expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be flat sequentially, including the impact of an extra week in our fiscal fourth quarter. Excluding the extra week of operations, we estimate that non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses would be down mid-single digits percentage sequentially, in line with the timing of our cost program despite the ramp in 5G development activities. We expect QTL revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion. This revenue guidance includes the expected $100 million payment from the other licensee in dispute while negotiations are ongoing. We expect QTL's EBT margin to be between 58% and 62%. It is worth noting that beginning in our fiscal first quarter of 2019, we will implement the new ASC 606 revenue recognition guidance. This requires that we estimate QTL royalty revenues each quarter rather than recognizing them one quarter in arrears, and then make revenue adjustments in the following quarters once actual amounts are reported by our licensees. Accordingly, the September quarter results for our Licensing business will not be reported in our fiscal Q1 results, but will be recorded on the balance sheet into retained earnings, with offsetting entries in accounts receivable. And our first fiscal quarter will now reflect estimated December royalty revenues for our Licensing business, consistent with the absence of a one-quarter lag. This change will alter QTL typical seasonality, as the busy holiday quarter for our licensees will now be recognized in our fiscal first quarter rather than our fiscal second quarter each year. Of course, the impact of our two disputes, in particular Apple, has also impacted seasonality over the past year given the absence of the usual impact of the flagship launches of these large OEMs. Turning to QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments in the fiscal fourth quarter to be in the range of 205 million to 225 million units, up approximately 8% sequentially at the midpoint, on seasonality and strength of our roadmap with Chinese OEMs. We expect QCT EBT margin to be approximately 16% to 18%, up 200 basis points at the midpoint sequentially, on a favorable mix toward Snapdragon 700 and 800 tiers, partially offset by lower shipments to Apple. We believe Apple intends to solely use our competitors' modems rather than our modems in its next iPhone release. We will continue to provide modems for Apple legacy devices. We expect that non-GAAP interest expense net of investment income will be approximately flat sequentially. We expect our non-GAAP tax rate for the fiscal fourth quarter and the full year to be approximately 2% expense. As Steve mentioned, we expect to terminate the NXP transaction after today's end date, subject only to receipt of evidence of a material change of circumstances related to the deal. Termination will trigger payment of the $2 billion termination fee. Consistent with our previously announced Plan B alternative, following the termination of the agreement, our board has authorized the purchase of up to $30 billion of stock, replacing the existing $10 billion authorization. We intend to execute on a large majority of the authorization by the end of fiscal 2019. Our repurchases will be funded almost entirely from balance sheet cash, and we will update you on the specific plans as we come to market. Our fourth quarter guidance does not include any impact of this new stock repurchase program or the impact of the $2 billion termination fee. The termination fee is expected to have approximately a $1.35 impact on GAAP earnings when recorded. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet, maintaining a strong investment-grade rating, and to ongoing growth in our dividend over time. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John T. Sinnott - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Amit Daryanani from RBC Capital Markets, please go ahead with your question.
Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. I guess just a question on the NXP dynamic. I guess, Steve, how do you think about M&A to achieve what you really wanted to get out of NXP going forward? And is your sense that Qualcomm can't really do any deals till the global macro tariff issues improve, or do you think NXP was perhaps something unique that you couldn't do and you could still go do other deals? I just want to understand. How do you go about the divorce that you talked about with NXP? And then on buybacks, how do we think about the pace, and how do you execute such a large buyback in a short timeframe?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Amit, this is Steve. I'll take the first one. George, why don't you take the second half of that? So I'm not sure there was anything particular about this transaction or any engagement around the transaction. I think it's probably more a statement of the overall macro environment that everyone's operating in right now. For us, I don't know if it signals any difference in terms of our ability to do things in the future. We are obviously from a capital allocation point of view obviously moving very rapidly into a stock buyback, which is where the focus is right now. But I don't know if I see anything closed down outside of the fact that it's just an unusual window, I think, for everybody involved in the industry right now.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
On the pacing of the buybacks, we'll come out with some information on that soon. But obviously, if we're going to get a large majority done within 2019, there will have to be some form of accelerated buyback as a part of that plan.
Operator:
Mike Walkley from Canaccord Genuity, please go ahead with your question.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, George. And just following up on the buyback and your guidance, is there any changes to the $5.25 in 2019 that you expect to generate assuming that the two licensing agreements are not settled? Can you maybe just walk us through the puts and takes towards getting towards that number, if that's still the case?
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Let me just give you an update. So first off, we've not changed our FY 2019 guidance. And as a reminder, resolution of our licensing disputes will be critical to our $6.75 to $7.50 objective. And if you think about the legal milestones that we've talked about in the past in support of driving these disputes towards resolution, we believe those milestones are on track and fundamentally unchanged. In terms of the timing and impact of the share repurchase accretion relative to NXP, obviously the share repurchase will depend on the timing of when the shares come in. It will also depend on the timing of the licensing resolution. You can get to actually a higher number than the NXP accretion that we talked about for 2019 of $1.50 with share repurchase. But of course that requires the licensing disputes to be completed. So right now, no change in our outlook of $6.75 to $7.50. On the $5.25, we'll have to look at really what the timing is on the share repurchase and the implications of that.
Operator:
Tim Long from BMO Capital, please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you, just two, if I could. First, a lot of talk about 5G. Could you just update us on what you think that will mean to the Qualcomm model for both the chip and royalty businesses as far as ASP increases or market share gains you think that would result in? And secondly on the chip business, it sounds like with thin modems going down and a pretty favorable mix, I'm assuming you're expecting a pretty good ASP and probably gross margin move the next few quarters. If you could, discuss that a little bit. Thank you.
Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hi, Tim. This is Cristiano. So I'll start with the 5G chip, and I'll shift to Alex for the license, and then we can come back and talk about the modem. We're very happy with what we've seen in 5G right now. 5G is accelerating. I think we said there are a large number of operators. And I can say that all of our Snapdragon 800 OEMs today are planning to launch a 5G device smartphone in 2019. I think that positions us well. It's early ramp of a technology. But while we have seen revenue generations, I think if we are in a good leadership position as the market moves, it could be a significant event in the later part of 2019 and 2020. And as you would expect, we see an opportunity for both revenue and margin expansion on the chip business.
Alexander Rogers - Qualcomm, Inc.:
So this is Alex. On the QTL side, the 5G transition is very good for the QTL business. We have a strong IP leadership position, including within the standards arena and standard essential patents. We're also very well positioned with the licensing framework that we rolled out, as evidenced by the over 10 license agreements that we have just recently signed. And so we think that we're in a very good position for long-term stability through the 5G transition.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Tim, on the gross margin, as you think about Q4, probably the biggest single impact pulling margin down is the absence of the other licensee payment which came in. What we're seeing is, despite lower Apple business, both quarter over quarter and year over year, you're seeing strength in the 700 and 800 tiers in China in the chip business, and that's actually really moderated what otherwise would have been a more difficult margin story.
Operator:
Chris Caso from Raymond James, please go ahead with your question.
Chris Caso - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Yes, thank you. Just a question on the 606 adoption and how that affects fiscal 2019 guidance. Was that already incorporated in the fiscal 2019 guidance that you have provided previously? Because I guess my understanding, as I'm thinking it through, is it would be a benefit to the fiscal first quarter against prior assumptions because that would capture the strong season. Am I thinking about that correctly?
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
606 was always in our estimates for 2019. And really, if you think about it, it just affects the shape of the year, not the size of the year. You get all four seasonal quarters in.
Operator:
Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research, please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Bernstein Research:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First on the timing of the buyback, if the buyback was supposed to give $1.50 for the full year, but it's going to take you through the full year to actually execute on it, how does it give you the full $1.50 in 2019? For my second question, the $100 million in revenue you have built into your guidance for next quarter and the quarter after, is that $100 million representative at all of your expectations for the run rate following settlement? And effectively, did you take down your QTL revenue guide? It used to be $1 billion to $1.1 billion. Now it's $1 billion to $1.2 billion, but it includes an additional $100 million. So it looks like ex-that $100 million, the core business was taken down. Is that in fact the case, or is that just some sort of seasonal or other issues that are going on? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Yeah. Let me maybe just start on the back end of it, on the numbers with respect to the $100 million. And maybe, Alex, after I'm finished with the answer, you can jump in. But the $100 million really does not represent a change, or the $1 billion to $1.2 billion guide is really not a change. We said that depending on seasonal factors, we expect to be roughly between $1 billion and $1.1 billion each quarter. And as you know, we're seeing the more seasonally weak quarter, although, quite frankly, a lot of the seasonality has come out as we look at the year because we're missing some of those flagship launches. So, the absolute market is generally pretty flat relative to that period. So, I think, overall, you're actually seeing a little bit better mix from QTL along with the $100 million. In terms of the buyback, really you're going to need the – you would be below $1.50 absent any resolution, and you could be well above $1.50 with resolution, which is the dynamic between the accretion that would come from a full year of NXP with the synergies in place and the share repurchase program, no real change in the math.
Alexander Rogers - Qualcomm, Inc.:
So, this is Alex. Really quickly, the $100 million in the quarter does not set an expectation for the licensing revenue should there be a resolution to the negotiation process. That is just a partial payment, but it does not reflect what's owed under the agreement. And as we said before, we're in active negotiations. And this is just a partial payment, and the negotiations are ongoing. As long as we think the negotiations are heading in a positive direction, we'll keep driving them. And we think this payment is a good faith indication that they are heading in a positive direction.
Operator:
James Faucette from Morgan Stanley, please go ahead with your question.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Steve, I wanted to ask you a big picture question back on the decision-making process, and hopefully we can help interpolate a little bit into how you're thinking about the future. But wonder if you could give a little more color as to where you saw the opportunity cost of continuing to wait for China to go through its process and, as you described it, that political window to change maybe back more favorably. How are you thinking about the opportunity cost of continuing to wait, and why make the decision to move on now? And how should we be thinking about that and how you're thinking about the future opportunities for Qualcomm, particularly in some of these new areas that you're pursuing? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Sure, James. So, I think the situation – a quick reminder. We signed the agreement about 21 months ago. We also had already extended the agreement once. And I think very good discussions, by the way, with the regulators worldwide and, in particular, in China. It was very clear to us that the macro environment was a very difficult macro environment to get something of this size through. And it was not clear that that was going to change in the future dramatically, particularly in the time window that we saw that we had to really move, and I'd say move toward two things. One is, I think, the company needs to focus on the opportunities that are ahead. I think that's important. The other aspect is we just need to provide certainty, not only to our partners and shareholders, but also to the employees as to where we're going. And we looked at that all together in a big mix and basically decided the right thing to do was to move on. We obviously have some time left on the clock here today, to be exact, but hopefully that helps you understand where we're headed. I think you should also view it as a statement of what we feel very good about the business, where we're headed and the forward aspects, and we want to move on and really deliver that to shareholders, as we said we would.
Operator:
Romit Shah from Nomura Equity, please go ahead with your question.
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet:
Yes, thank you. George, going from 14 weeks in September to 13 weeks in the calendar fourth quarter, do you anticipate any impact to MSM shipments? Is that something we should contemplate? And then can I just ask you about Apple and your thin modem share? Do you guys believe that you're locked out of that account indefinitely? What will it take for Qualcomm to win back that business? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Really, what we see with an extra week is more the purchasing dynamics and decisions tend to be more indifferent to whether there's an additional week in the quarter or not. It's really around timing of launches. So it's really the – we're seeing the major effect on the cost side of the extra week, really of the run rate.
Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hi, this is Cristiano. Talking about your question on Apple, look, this is a very dynamic industry. I think we've been very clear, and we don't expect to be in the next product launch, and we'll continue to support them with the legacy. And I think those are decisions that are made as the industry moves and design by design. I think we continue to be focused on technology. We feel pretty good about our modem leadership. I think we disclosed there are some very interesting, I think, third-party customer reports that show our performance, and we will continue to be investing on the modem. And if the opportunity presents itself, I think we will be a supplier of Apple.
Operator:
Matt Ramsey from Cowen, please go ahead with your question.
Matthew D. Ramsay - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much, good afternoon. Steve, I wanted to ask a little bit about the adjacencies. One of the big thesis points of doing the NXP transaction was to give you guys or sort of jump-start the scale, particularly in automotive and the micro-controller IoT businesses. And now that the deal seems to be off the table, if you could, talk a little bit about the scale that you currently have in the adjacent businesses that you're ramping and how you think about that competitively without getting NXP done. Thank you.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Matt, I think maybe I'll differentiate it. The answer depends on which market you're in. So I think in the automobile segment, we already feel that we're a pretty large player. We benefited from the fact that we are strong in the technologies that are defining many of the new use cases, in particular telematics and the connected car through telematics as a product line, but also in our infotainment business. So we feel today we already have significant scale. Obviously, we'd have a much stronger scale with NXP, and we liked the transaction as a result. But our auto business is already a significant business, as I mentioned, $5 billion backlog and growing. So we're pleased with that, and I think we're well positioned in the technologies that will define the key excitement in the future as well. In IoT, again, I think we're in the right place with the core technologies and the technologies that the industry is working toward. We do not have as strong an organic channel as would be brought to us by the NXP transaction. It's growing and it contributes to the business today, but we're going to have to augment that a bit here in the future. We hope to also move forward on that, but also deliver on the stock buyback in the interim as well. So this is a two-pronged capital allocation perspective I think from the company, but we feel lucky and pleased to have a strong position in the technologies, which we think are the key technologies to winning in those markets long term.
Operator:
Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank, please go ahead with your question.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks for letting me ask a question. Steve, just a follow-on to that is the first part of my question. How do you reconcile the $1 billion of cost-cutting where there's a number of press reports saying that adjacencies are exactly where the trimming is occurring with your goal to diversify? And then my second question, which is somewhat unrelated is, George, it looks like your MSM guidance is at least seasonal if not above seasonal at up 8%. Considering what you said about Apple, is there something else going on there? Does the extra week benefit the revenue outlook for QCT? Any color on that would be helpful.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Ross, this is Steve. Let me answer that first question about where the focus is. Our focus of the cost-cutting is really more about focusing the company's resources on these areas as opposed to taking R&D or resources away. As you know the history of the company, we've had a number of other bets that I think are a little bit further outside of the core competency of the company, and we're trying to focus on R&D in the areas where we think there are growth. Industrial IoT, automotive, networking are clearly above the line there for us, which we are excited about. We are moving some focused R&D toward those businesses versus away from them in total. We are also looking at how we can spend money to execute on the licensing business with less spend. We hope to move into more of a peacetime situation with the licensing business, but rest assured we are very focused on focusing the company toward the areas that we've mentioned.
Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hi, Ross. On the MSM, I think there are a number of things that we see in our business, and I think that's reflected in the guide. I think number one is we see an extension of our key China customer going towards the premium tier. We mentioned I think we saw high demand on Snapdragon 700 and 800 as they expand into the segment. We also see large-scale Chinese OEM international expansion that's increasing the MSM sales for us. As an example, some of our key customers now have products in the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and France, which is a new geographical region for them. And we expect that to continue, as China will bring large-scale 5G deployment in the later part of 2019.
Operator:
Timothy Arcuri from UBS, please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. I have two. First of all, on the payments in the QTL, George, with the $100 million that you're going to get in September and the $100 million that you'll get in December, does that fully catch you up by the end of December? That's the first question. And then the second question is on the potential to get an injunction in China against Apple. I think there's a practical process around you to validate your IP. So my question is what is the process and whether you've checked all the boxes so that if you did want to pursue that, you could? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Tim, in terms of the payments, the $700 million in total is a portion but does not represent the full amount that we would expect to receive. In fact, I would say it's a fraction of the full amount that we would expect to receive under an agreement. It's not meant to be a catch-up, it's meant to be a good faith payment while negotiations are going on.
Donald J. Rosenberg - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Tim, this is Don. So I think your question was about China and our patent litigation there against Apple. And the answer is yes, we are seeking injunctive relief there. In some cases in China, you're not only entitled to permanent injunctions, but you're entitled to preliminary injunctions on occasion. But China is definitely a jurisdiction which is willing to enjoin infringers for patent infringement.
Operator:
Chris Danely from Citigroup, please go ahead with your question.
Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, guys, just a couple quick ones. On the dispute with the $700 million in catch-up payments, I think before you've commented that you expect that to end or to close before the end of the year. Do you still expect that? And would you expect the royalty rate to decline there? And then could other customers get wind of that and have their royalty rates go lower? Then any update on when you think the Apple resolution will be settled.
Alexander Rogers - Qualcomm, Inc.:
This is Alex. Again, I would not characterize this $700 million as catch-up payments because, as we've said, what these payments are, are partial payments during the context of a negotiation which we feel has been moving along somewhat slowly but in a positive direction. And the partial payments are an empirical data point that we're making progress in the negotiation. So it's not final by any means. It doesn't represent what is at issue in the agreement and what the values are at issue in the agreement and what the end result might be. And so this is not a data point for other licensees to take and say somebody else is getting a different sort of deal. These negotiations are ongoing. We think they're positive. If they don't result in an amendment or a resolution, then as we've said in the past, there's an opportunity for dispute resolution. So again, I would just think about this as a good faith partial payment, not indicative of the value of the overall agreement. What was the question again on Apple?
John T. Sinnott - Qualcomm, Inc.:
What the timing is, is there any timing question?
Alexander Rogers - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Okay, got it. So with respect to Apple, the way you should think about it is we're on the same schedule we've laid out over the last several quarters. We continue to talk. We also have a number of legal strategies that are in flight. They're further in flight than they were the last time we spoke. And we hope that through the combination of either of those paths, we could get to a resolution, and we're confident that we will. No change in the timeline from what we've said previously.
Operator:
Srini Pajjuri from Macquarie, please go ahead with your question.
Srini Pajjuri - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
I have a clarification and a question. George, on the ASC 606, I think you said, the September quarter revenue for the devices that are shipped in the September quarter, you said that's going to go on the balance sheet. I think it's going to be more than $1 billion going on to the balance sheet. Just curious, when do you expect to recognize that? When will that flow through to the income statement? And then my question is on the OpEx, the $1 billion savings, could you give us an update in terms of where you are in terms of achieving that $1 billion? And once we get to that level, what do you expect the OpEx on a non-GAAP basis excluding legal range to be? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Qualcomm, Inc.:
So, under 606, the quarter that goes on to the balance sheet goes basically directly to retained earnings, never flows through the income statement. So, we shift ahead one quarter, which is where we talked about on the call the change in the seasonality. So, our old Q2 is now Q1, and then the Q4 the following year will be the old Q1 of the year after that. So, you're going to get all four quarters in the year under 606, but you basically lose one quarter on to the balance sheet. Obviously, we get all the cash flow and other elements associated with it, and we will just report the December quarter instead of the September quarter. We continue to make progress on the timing of the cost program. We've said the baseline was $7.4 billion for OpEx and that we believe we'll be able to take out $1 billion in 2019, which would put it at $6.4 billion. We'd be down about 5% quarter over quarter in Q4 or mid-single digits, as we said, 5%-plus quarter over quarter, absent the extra week. So, that gives you an indication directionally. And we would expect another step down in the quarter following that as we make progress into the year. We believe we're on track and we're still confident we'll take $1 billion out relative to the baseline.
Operator:
Brett Simpson from Arete, please go ahead with your question.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Yes, thanks very much. Can you, perhaps, just talk us through the timing of the court cases you have with Apple, so the timing of the cases, but more importantly the timing of the judgments, and when you expect these to be finalized for Germany, for China, for ITC, for FTC, that would be very helpful? I've got a follow-up. Thank you.
Donald J. Rosenberg - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hi, this is Don. So, that's a tall order. I don't think I can give you all the precise dates, but we've got, as you said, in the ITC, for example, our first case has already had hearings. We're expecting what's called an initial determination in September and a final determination there in January. We've got another ITC case that will be going to hearings sometime very early in the year, I think in January as well. In China, we have multiple patent cases running in at least three jurisdictions there. Each of those is on a different schedule, but they are moving along quite quickly. And so, we would expect something either by the end of this year in terms of hearings and trials or early in next year. In Germany, we've got a number of patent cases filed there as well in both Munich and Mannheim, and those are moving toward – same type of later this year, early next year in terms of trial dates.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Okay, that's great. Thanks very much, Don. And then just maybe for Cristiano, on the RF business, you're talking a bit about design wins for the first time on 5G RF. Can you maybe just talk about what type of attach rates you're getting with 5G RF with your 5G modem wins? Could you talk about addressing system solution modem to antenna? And where do you think Qualcomm is really differentiating in 5G RF, specifically? And I just wanted to circle back to the revenue targets for fiscal 2019 for RF. You talked about $2 billion to $3 billion, I think, of RF revenue in fiscal 2019. What's the revenue opportunity that 5G might give you on top of this, over time? Thank you.
Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you for the question. So, I think maybe I'll start by saying we are expanding RF today. We have a number of designs that we have been reporting throughout the year. I think those designs, some are getting to market; some will get into the market soon. We'll be able to see the teardowns, and we're happy that not only we're getting the complete end-to-end solutions in the low band, but also the mid and the high band, including the PAMiDs, and the filters, and we expect that will continue. With 5G, the reason we're optimistic about the opportunity of increasing attach rate is, when you think of millimeter-wave, you have to design the front end in the antenna and the transceiver integrated into a package, and also you have to optimize performance of a new technology in a new environment, where we have a time-to-market leadership. Those things are great trends for us to expand the RF business, which we're actually pleased with the results we're starting to get right now.
Donald J. Rosenberg - Qualcomm, Inc.:
This is Don again. I just wanted to correct something. I believe I said the ITC second case is going to hearing in January. In fact, it's going to hearing in September.
Operator:
Edward Snyder from Charter Equity, please go ahead with your question.
Edward. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc.:
Thank you very much. I'd like to hit, if I could, the QCT results, especially with regard to the Snapdragon 700 series. I'm sure you guys have seen the uptick in wins for MediaTek's P60. They've seemed to have abandoned the high end to you, which is obviously very good news for your Snapdragon 800 series. I know the Snapdragon 700 series has been positioned to fight back on that platform. The checks said they have gotten quite a few dozens of wins on that. Can you just help us out with the dynamic between your Snapdragon 700 series and their P60 series, especially in the mid-tier 4G market? And then if I could also, China has lagged in 4G overall. They've really got basic 4G, and I know they've put a flag in the ground about commercial 5G deployments by next year. That would suggest they're going to have to cover a lot of ground between LTE Advanced and LTE Pro between now and then to make that target. Do you think there are some risks to their deploying 5G? Or maybe it will be delayed a bit beyond where they have targeted while they're trying to catch up? And what impact does LTE Pro or LTE Advanced increase in mix that China's going to have on your modem business especially? Thanks a lot.
Cristiano R. Amon - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Thank you, Ed. So let me just start with the Snapdragon 700. The dynamic we saw in the China market with our key OEMs have been consistent with what we have said for probably the past two years is the market is moving up. And I'll answer two of your questions with the Snapdragon 700 series. The Snapdragon 700 series, it basically was an opportunity, as a lot of – some of the mid-tier devices – OEMs are more interested in bringing that to a more premium feature set. And one of the features that also drove a lot of the Snapdragon 700 is the advanced modem performance on LTE. In some other markets, especially outside China, you see some markets advertising that even as a 4.5G technology. We saw that, for example, in Latin America. That was how the Snapdragon 700 series got labeled in terms of performance. So this is a good sign. But also the Snapdragon 800 series, we saw pickup as some of the key customers entered the market. So our view is the market continues to move into the right direction for us, and that bodes well with the expansion of our customers into other markets. Not to single anyone out in particular, but just looking at Xiaomi as an example, they're now in 70 countries, and they were the number four smartphone in Europe within one year. That's a good thing, and look at the global feature set of LTE as the design point for our customers in China, not only China domestic. Going to 5G, that's where things become more interesting. The scale of the user-friendly trial of the largest operator in China, China Mobile, which everyone on the infrastructure side and the OEM side is working towards the second half, is very large. And that gave us an indication that the transition could be as meaningful as we saw with 4G, so that creates an opportunity for basically, jump in feature set in China towards the 5G with 5G in radio standalone, and we're excited about that as well.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Qualcomm, Inc.:
Yes, thank you. Just an observation that obviously the company has been through a lot in the last year, but I also want to recognize that we've accomplished a lot as well, not only the strong quarter and outlook that we've put in, but also just the breadth and the depth of the product delivery that's occurred, the 845, the products Cristiano mentioned, as well as the leadership position in 5G. I think it's a testament to the tenacity and the dedication and the competitive spirit that Qualcomm has been known for. And I just want to thank the employees and our partners and our customers for supporting us through this period and look forward to delivering for them in the future. Thank you, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc. Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc. George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc. Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc. Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.
Analysts:
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Chris Caso - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Srini Pajjuri - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 25, 2018. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 39466125. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fiscal second quarter results were strong with non-GAAP earnings per share 14% above the midpoint of our guidance range, driven by continued strong performance in QCT and cost management throughout the company, which was balanced by some headwinds from weaker industry conditions and litigation costs in QTL. We returned approximately $1 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $845 million of dividends paid and $200 million in stock repurchases. We also announced a 9% increase to our quarterly dividend rate in the quarter, effective for dividends starting in the June quarter. Looking ahead, we see some near-term headwinds, but our longer-term outlook is consistent with our fiscal 2019 targets that we shared with you in January. Our fiscal third quarter guidance reflects some softness in global 3G/4G device shipments, particularly in China, the impact of some changes we have made to our licensing framework, as well as the impact of increased litigation expenses in our licensing business. QCT continues to execute well with strong performance in China and growth in adjacent areas, offset by some impact of lower modem shipments. For calendar 2018, we are adjusting our growth estimate for global 3G/4G device shipments lower. However, handset selling prices continue to be stronger than expected, which continues to be a favorable trend. As we navigate the short-term industry weakness in QCT, we continue to execute well in that business and our market share remains strong. The Snapdragon 845 platform, our latest premium tier offering, has achieved substantial commercial success with over 100 design wins already, including launched flagship devices by Samsung, Sony, ASUS and Xiaomi. Our modem leadership continues. We recently announced our X24 LTE modem, which is the world's first 2 gigabit 4G modem and the world's first announced 7 nanometer chip. As the market transitions to 5G, the engineering challenges embedded in the 5G opportunity play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and the focused investment we have made over the last several years. We are leading the industry to 5G and we are pleased to see the strength of our roadmap helping to enable the upcoming commercial launches of 5G networks and devices, including the 18 network operators and 20 manufacturers that have selected our X50 5G modem for trials and 5G devices. We also recently announced the world's first 5G module solutions, which include highly integrated turnkey 5G modules, including application processor, baseband, transceiver, memory, power management, RF front-end, antennas and other components that are designed to expand the ecosystem and accelerate 5G deployments. Our products continue to be differentiated, driven by our unique systems-based approach to the complexities across wireless networks and devices. We are delivering industry-leading technologies and performance, which translates into a more efficient use of spectrum for operators and a lower bill of materials for device makers, delivering attractive economics for our partners and higher device content share for us. In auto, our backlog of awarded design wins has increased to $4 billion, as automakers and Tier 1 suppliers begin gearing up for 5G-enabled cars in 2021. We continue to be the supplier of choice, given our decades of wireless technology leadership. In infotainment, we have designs with 14 of the top 25 global automaker brands, including Audi, BYD, Geely, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and Volkswagen. In networking, we see favorable trends with continued share gains and growth in the Wi-Fi infrastructure opportunity across enterprise, retail and carriers. And we launched the world's first draft 802.11ax carrier gateway, which started shipping in March in KDDI and NEC. In summary, we are well positioned to grow in our adjacent opportunities of auto, IoT, networking and compute as we leverage our core competencies to gain share in these emerging areas. In November 2017, we announced a global framework for licensing Qualcomm's standard essential patents at an effective rate of 3.25%, covering multimode devices inclusive of 5G Release 15 standards. We also recently set the selling price cap for a handset at $400 for all licensees. This global rate is consistent with the SEP-only licensing program we successfully established in China since 2015, which has resulted in over 120 agreements for 3G and 4G devices. We are now in negotiations for license extensions under the new program announced in November that include rights to our 5G patents and expect to conclude a number of agreements in Q3. The transparency of our worldwide SEP-only licensing program, including announced rates for 5G Release 15, facilitates the effort to conclude agreements and extensions in 2018 and early 2019, providing for a seamless transition for the launch of 5G devices in 2019. Longer term, we believe this SEP-only licensing program enhances the stability of QTL with extended contract terms that incorporate 5G pricing. While execution of new agreements with existing handset licensees will create some near-term revenue impact in QTL, they are consistent with our assumptions that we set for fiscal year 2019 EPS targets. Looking ahead, we are focused on executing on our strategy to deliver our fiscal 2019 earnings per share targets. We have identified a number of specific strategic areas as part of that plan, and we will be updating you on our ongoing progress. First, we continue to focus on closing the NXP transaction. As we announced last week at the request of MOFCOM, we withdrew and refiled our application for Chinese regulatory approval. We also agreed with NXP to extend the purchase agreement to July 25. While we continue to work closely with the Chinese regulators and remain optimistic about getting the necessary regulatory approvals there, it is clear that the geopolitical environment and trade actions are having an impact.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. I apologize, but there will be a slight delay in today's conference. Please hold, and the conference will resume momentarily. Thank you for your patience.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
On the timelines we previously discussed and should converge toward multiple important milestones later this year. In addition, our breach of contract case against Apple's contract manufacturers and our claim against Apple for interfering with those contracts is on schedule to be prepared for trial setting by the end of the year. As the legal cases progress, we continue our direct engagement with Apple and prefer to ultimately reach a negotiated settlement. Regarding our other dispute with a large licensee, we are in discussions toward a negotiated resolution and those discussions are very active. Third, we are progressing on our previously announced plans to reduce our spending by $1 billion. We have made good progress on this commitment, taking steps to reduce spending across SG&A and R&D. We are also focused on spending reductions in our noncore product areas. Fourth, we are executing our product roadmap and continue to make the investments necessary to maintain our technology and product leadership, lead the industry to 5G and grow our adjacent areas across the RF front end, automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute. In closing, we are pleased to report strong results this quarter and we remain 100% focused on delivering on our fiscal 2019 commitments and creating that value for stockholders. We look forward to continuing to update you on our progress. I now turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. Our fiscal second quarter results were above the midpoint of our guidance with revenues of $5.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 per share, $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance. The non-GAAP EPS outperformance in the quarter was driven by higher MSM shipments, improved gross margins in QCT, a more favorable tax rate from lower domestic versus foreign earnings and lower operating expenses. In QCT, MSM chip shipments were $187 million, towards the high end of our guidance range. QCT revenues were $3.9 billion, in line with expectations. As we expected, QCT results this quarter reflected the normal seasonal effects of lower demand, typical in the calendar first quarter, a reduction in orders sequentially from a large modem customer and reduced demand from customers in China as they reduced inventory balances. As a result, we saw handset inventory balances in China come down in line with long term trends. While we remain conservative on demand for the second half of the year, we think the lower level of inventory is a very healthy development. QCT's earnings before tax was up 28% year-over-year, the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. QCT EBT margin was 16%, above the high end of our guidance range, reflecting stronger than expected gross margins in mobile, primarily in product cost benefits, including some discrete benefits related to conclusion of negotiations with a supplier. QTL fiscal second quarter revenues were $1.26 billion, slightly above the midpoint of guidance and included a modestly higher amount of out of period catch-up that we anticipated offset by lower than expected 3G/4G units reported by licensees for the December quarter, particularly in the emerging regions. Note that these results exclude royalty revenues on Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute. It is also worth noting that in the December quarter we continue to see strong year-over-year trends in global 3G/4G handset ASPs across various price levels. We are seeing significantly higher run rate spending this year driven by litigation matters related to Apple and the FTC. In the second fiscal quarter, we spent approximately $125 million on these cases and expect that to ramp further in Q3. Spending is somewhat more heavily weighted in the second half of our fiscal year, in line with broad-based discovery activities and the timing of IP cases globally. We will provide information on our OpEx, both with and without excess litigation, so that the underlying cost structure changes are more visible. QTL earnings before tax was $850 million, or 67% of revenues, above the midpoint of expectations or 78% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense. For Qualcomm overall, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased approximately 2% sequentially or down 4% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense. We began implementing our $1 billion cost plan that will accelerate in the latter part of the year. In Q2 we booked restructuring and related charges under the cost plan of $310 million or $0.18 per share. These items were excluded from non-GAAP results. It is important to note that these initiatives will not impact our strong investment in 5G and our commitment to grow in mobile, RFFE, IoT, automotive, networking and mobile compute. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate during the fiscal second quarter was 4%, favorable relative to our prior guidance due to the catch-up associated with a lower estimated annual effective tax rate on lower domestic versus foreign earnings mix. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $39.6 billion or $16.5 billion net of outstanding debt. Turning to our financial guidance for the fiscal third quarter. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Our guidance incorporates a relatively balanced mix of positive and negative factors in the quarter with tax benefits related to potential restructuring opportunities under tax reform offsetting the impacts of initial plan changes in our licensing program, higher litigation costs in the quarter and approximately $0.03 of expected ZTE order effects across the company. In QTL, we are expecting QTL fiscal third quarter revenues of approximately $950 million at the midpoint, down sequentially approximately $300 million. This outlook reflects three primary issues. First, about half of the sequential decline reflects the combined impact of a seasonably low quarter along with generally weak industry conditions along with approximately $40 million in higher onetime catch-up payments in Q2 relative to our outlook for Q3. Second, we have begun to recognize this quarter the impact related to the recent amendments to our Samsung licensing agreement, including the effects of the expanded cross-license agreement. And third, we are seeing the initial run rate impact of the licensing SEP-only framework including 5G that Steve described earlier. Slightly less than half of the sequential impact on revenue is from the changes to the Samsung agreement and other licensing program terms. I should note that we have also implemented a voluntary revised cap in which the maximum net selling price of a handset on which the royalty is based will be capped at $400 per device, down from $500 per device. This will be broadly implemented in fiscal Q4 and we do not expect a material impact overall. We expect QTL EBT margin to be approximately 50% to 54% in the fiscal third quarter, down sequentially at the midpoint on lower revenues and increased litigation cost. Without the extraordinary litigation expenses, QTL EBT margin expectations would be approximately 65% to 69%. Turning to QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 185 million to 205 million units during the June quarter, higher sequentially at the midpoint on increased demand in China as inventory improved in the last two months of the fiscal second quarter. We expect QCT's fiscal third quarter EBT margin to be approximately 13% to 15%, down sequentially, primarily due to seasonally weaker product mix including lower thin modem shipments and the absence of the discrete product cost benefit in Q2. We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be roughly flat to up approximately 2% sequentially, primarily due to increased litigation expenses as we continue to defend our business model, somewhat mitigated by the impacts of our cost efforts. Excluding the elevated litigation costs, we estimate that our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses would otherwise be down approximately 1%. Non-GAAP interest expense net of investment income in the fiscal third quarter is expected to be roughly flat sequentially. Turning to tax matters. As a result of the recent tax legislation enacted in the U.S., we anticipate implementing certain restructuring options that will reduce our current year tax rate and have been factored into our fiscal third quarter guidance. As a result, we expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fiscal third quarter to be a benefit of approximately 20% to 25%, which we expect to provide a benefit to non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 per share. Regarding our 3G/4G device shipment forecast, we are updating our unit estimates for calendar year global device shipments for both 2017 and 2018. For calendar year 2017, we now estimate approximately 1.755 billion global 3G/4G devices shipped, up approximately 3% year-over-year at the low end of our prior estimates, primarily due to lengthening replacement rates in North America and China in the fourth calendar quarter. For calendar year 2018, we now estimate approximately 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion global 3G/4G device shipments or growth of approximately 5% year-over-year. This is lower from our prior estimate by 50 million units at the midpoint, reflecting a lower 2017 base as well as reduced demand expected in China. Within this population, handset growth is expected to be approximately 3% year-over-year. With respect to global 3G/4G device sales for fiscal 2018, we now expect growth of approximately 10% year-over-year at the midpoint, as the reduction in our estimate of global 3G/4G units in the year is expected to be more than offset by strength in ASPs. Within this population, 3G/4G global handset sales are expected to grow at similar percentage in fiscal 2018, driven primarily by strength in handset ASPs year-over-year. I will provide some additional color on our committed 2019 targets. As I noted earlier, we are making good progress on the $1 billion cost plan. This is a critical element of our $5.25 non-GAAP EPS target, along with closing NXP, or alternatively moving ahead with our option to repurchase stock. For our licensing business, the 5G royalty rates, the reduced NSP cap and the effects of the amended long-term Samsung license agreement were all factored into our fiscal 2019 guidance. Taking into consideration these items and the expectation of continued growth in global 3G/4G handset sales in fiscal 2019, we expect QTL quarterly revenues in the near and medium term to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion on average, excluding the royalties from Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute. Of course, the amount in any one quarter will be subject to seasonal fluctuations, OEM mix, out-of-period catch-up amounts and continued progress on the licensing and compliance front, among other factors. In QCT, we expect that fiscal 2019 performance will benefit from continued handset growth, particularly in emerging regions, continued strength in our China share in the mid, high and premium tiers, and growth in adjacent opportunities, including automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Our first question is from Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Sorry. I was on mute. Can you hear me? Hello?
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes, we can hear you, Tal. Go ahead.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Well, good. Can you repeat the reasons for the weak QTL guidance for next quarter? And how does it change going forward, especially what happens with Release 15 licensing? What I didn't understand is so far – and maybe it's just my understanding – so far your license covered all the patents and clients had to pay regardless of what patent you're using. Does it mean that LTE licensing is separate? And is the royalty rate for LTE licensing different, lower than the general licensing rate?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So, what I'll do – Tal, this is George – I'll cover the questions on the bridge, and then maybe Alex can talk a little bit about the structure of the SEP-only program. So if you look at the sequential bridge, we said that it's down about $300 million. Some of that is the normal seasonal drop-off that we get, because this – remember, we're reporting on a lag, so this is calendar Q1 activities. This is where we saw the significant pullback in demand across four devices in general. So, we have a weak market. We also have the pullback that's just natural with Q1. The other piece is we also had some higher onetime amounts in Q2 than we're reporting Q3. So, that's about a little more than half of the $300 million. The other half is the changes that we talked about, reflecting both the amendment to the Samsung agreement, which among other things includes the cross-license rights that are quite extensive, and the changes that we anticipate to see in the quarter to contracts for licensees that will take an SEP-only license, which has a number of favorable characteristics that I'm sure Alex will cover.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So, this is Alex, picking up where George left off. Just a little bit of context, I think, is helpful. Since 2015, we established a very successful licensing program in China for SEP licenses for 3G and 4G through Release 11 at a set of rates that came out of the resolution of the China matter. And what we've done and what we announced in November of 2017 is that we were extending that set of rates to a worldwide program for SEP-only licensing for 3G and 4G through the remaining releases also to include the first release of 5G, where the standard, the specification was finalized in December of last year. That is our SEP-only licensing program going forward. Of course, we still have a portfolio-wide licensing program at the standard rate of 5%, but we expect on a go-forward basis that there will be a number of licensees who are interested in extensions and renewals who may want to have SEP-only license agreements. And of course, we'll negotiate those sorts of agreements, and we expect that there will be a few of those agreements being reached even in this quarter. So, the program is rooted in a very successful program that came out of China with over 120 license agreements. We expect this program to be successful and to facilitate a very good transition to 5G in the second half of 2019. We expect there will be a number of licensees who want to maintain portfolio-wide agreements worldwide, but there will also be licensees who want to have SEP-only agreements on a worldwide basis. And that is, of course, something that we can accommodate on a case-by-case basis.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And I apologize if it sounds stupid, but would you mind to discuss what does it mean SEP-only?
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
No problem. Standard essential patents, so our standard essential patents that have been declared for 3G/4G, and the first 5G standard. Those patents as distinguished from nonessential patents, implementation patents, other patents that are relevant to other standards other than cellular standards. So when we refer to SEPs, we're referring generally to cellular standard essential patents for the technology generations that we all understand to be 3G, 4G, and 5G.
Operator:
Our next question is from Chris Caso with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Chris Caso - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. Just to follow up on the previous discussion a little bit, with regard to the fiscal 2019 guidance, you talked about that this new licensing scheme was included in that. Could you walk us through a bit of how you get to that fiscal 2019 EPS guidance, what are the puts and takes there and how this new licensing scheme falls into that as well?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah. This is George, Chris. The $5.25 base, as we said, included approximately $1.50 from NXP accretion. It included the benefit of $1 billion in the year of OpEx reduction and then it had the underlying run rate of the business absent the Apple license payments, new Apple business that we presume would be held up as part of the process of the litigation. And so we said to help people model, we indicated in my script that for modeling the levels of licensing revenue excluding Apple and the other licensee, you can plan on, on average between $1 billion and $1.1 billion per quarter. Obviously that can fluctuate a little bit depending on some of the onetime items that show up or the strength of the market overall changing. We think that's a reasonable number. The balance of that, then, is going to be driven by fundamentally the performance of the QCT mobile business and the adjacent businesses as part of that. And I think the $5.25 is consistent with the basic position we have in QCT today and continued growth in the adjacents.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. Just for the $5.25 in guidance for that out year, can you walk us through maybe what you expect for QCT in terms of margin targets that you expect to hit as the cost reductions come out of the business model implied in that guidance? And then also for the $5.25, what is management's plans should China continue to block NXP? When do you finally just pull the plug and is the buyback really the best thing to do with that cash to get to that $5.25? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah. We haven't put out margin targets for QCT. Obviously we've said that we expect to get to our long-term margin target of greater than 20% over time, and certainly you would expect to see that as part of the kind of recovery case that the $6.75 to $7.50 envisions where we start to get some product business back that was taken away and also probably additional RF front end business is part of that. So I think overall, the $5.25 is really just a continuation for QCT of their current position strength in China, strength in the premium tier, which has been a positive relative to what we've seen with the fall-off in the thin modem business and then growth in the adjacents.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Mike, this is Steve. Maybe on your question related to NXP, there was probably a point in there, as I understand in the audio where people couldn't hear my comments related to NXP, but in short what I said was that we continue to work closely with China. The environment is obviously quite difficult from a geopolitical point of view, at least right now. However, we expect to ultimately receive approval and I'd just remind folks that we have eight of nine jurisdictions that have already ruled on it. So although we remain committed to it and we think it's going to get done. However if it does not get done, as you mentioned, we think we have the ability to move very rapidly on a buyback as we communicated earlier in the January timeframe. I'll just remind everyone that we did a 90-day extension to the merger agreement and we're going to work very hard to get that done. And if it doesn't get done, we're going to move onto another approach. So hopefully that answers the question.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks a lot for taking my question, guys. I guess, Steve, maybe just to follow up on the line you had earlier, is July 25 sort of the drop dead deadline where if this is not done by then, you will move to plan B, i.e. buybacks or would you just extend the merger agreement further? And then any sense on what the MOFCOM issues are or what remedies they want above and beyond which you agreed to in other jurisdictions?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Well, I would say, Amit, with respect to the agreement, yes, we have just extended it by 90 days. So I think both companies are moving toward that timeline and we certainly have other ability and avenues to drive value and that's how we're thinking about the issue. Of course things can always change as we move through the process but that's the way that it's set up right now. With respect to MOFCOM and remedies, our evaluation of the environment is such that, really, I think the issue is probably more related to the higher level discussions between the countries as opposed to any individual issue related to MOFCOM. Of course, we continue to work with the regulators and work through any issues that pop up, but I think the environmental issues between the countries are probably more the situation today than anything else but obviously we work closely with the regulator.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. Just wanted to closeout one more on the QTL part and then a question on the QCT piece. So, Alex, I just wanted make sure I understand this. So the impact of the SEP-only and 5G licenses that's hitting revenues, is that because those deals will have a lower rate structure? Or is it because there's some kind of onetime impact of nonpayment as those deals are being negotiated? And then on the QCT side, units are holding up very well. I think you mentioned some ZTE hit in the quarter. You mentioned inventory reductions but it's a pretty weak market in China. And I guess we got a new set of iPhones coming out, and you guys have intimated that you potentially could do a little bit worse there or you're at least planning that you might not have as much share in that win. So could you just maybe is this predominantly market share that you think is keeping your numbers better I'd say than the end market for the last few quarters? That would be helpful. Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Tim. This is George. Maybe I'll take the point on what is the impact that we're seeing from these changes. Again, what we said is a little less than half of the $300 million is related to what I would call the run rate changes associated with the amendments to the Samsung agreement that we announced last quarter and also the SEP-only expected impacts that we expect to be in the run rate this quarter. So it would be effectively a lower effective rate for those licensees than if they had had a portfolio license prior to that time.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
This is Alex. What I think it's important to note that again, some licensees may choose to have an SEP-only agreement, including the 5G IP rights going forward. And they may choose to expand on that basis. But others will prefer a portfolio-wide agreement for obvious reasons. They enjoy the benefits of the entire portfolio and protected under the entire portfolio. And these are going to be determined on a case-by-case basis as we get into these negotiations, but we do believe that some licensees will choose SEP-only on a worldwide basis.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Tim. Let me add one more thing I think before Cristiano comes in on some of the demand things, the demand environment for QCT. As I look at Q3, one of the difficult stories is because we're seeing some, this is the quarter where QCT is seeing some of the weakness in reports that we talked about because they report a month lag, so those are the weakness that QCT saw in Q2 but is seeing recovery in Q3. But we continue to see an underlying growth in the licensing markets when you look at units and ASPs. If we just looked back to Q3 2017 and we looked at the market as for the licensees that are paying today, and we look at today the market has grown to the point where essentially the cost of these changes in the program on a run-rate basis is being covered by the growth in the market because of the strength of both units and in particular ASPs. Cristiano, did you want to?
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. Hi, Tim. So on QCT, it's exactly a simple story. Q2 has been a great quarter for us, particularly if you look compared to our year-over-year. I think we saw continued strength in our portfolio. As we look forward, and that's I think George said that we still take a conservative approach. However, we do see that the inventory levels came down back to normal in China. So it's a story that we look at the units, we still think there is overall the drivers of our strength in China business continue. I think we see an improvement of mix. We see an improvement of handset ASPs. We have some interesting transitions ahead of us, such as China Mobile recently got a license for FDD. We have 5G coming in 2019. So I think the story is good. We're just dealing with how we think about the overall industry is in the second half, and we have seen a decline in thin modems, probably consistent with everybody else in the industry.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Guys, thanks for taking my questions. I just want to make sure I have this straight. So basically, you're folding 5G now into the licensing model and you're getting paid less for it and you're talking about it like it's a good thing. Why is this a good thing? Is this being proactive to halt the spread of other disputes? Or like what's the driving force behind doing this?
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Stacy, this is Alex. We are including 5G in the SEP-only licensing model. We're not getting paid less for it. I think the best way to think about this is building a foundation for long-term stability in QTL. The current program that we've announced for SEPs that we announced back in November has tremendous consistency with the program that we successfully established in China coming out of the China investigation. We actually now have over 150 SEP-only licensees through the 3G and 4G program there. And in addition, with the announcement in November ahead of the adoption of the first release of 5G, we have tremendous transparency for the program going forward. And so, what we've done is we purposely built the program to facilitate a transition to 5G in a way that successfully enables us to bring on new licensees and extend their agreements for longer terms. And so, this creates tremendous stability. Now, we do expect that a number of licensees will want to have portfolio-wide licenses, and so there's going to be a mix. But the effect of all of this has been considered in our FY 2019 numbers. So, we've looked at this and purposely built this program for stability long term.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much. I wanted to, I guess, follow up on that question or at least as it pertains to the unnamed licensee. I guess with the new structure, how should we expect the impact to compliance and ability to assure compliance, firstly? And secondly, I guess I'm wondering a little bit why anybody would offer a portfolio-wide license, especially when from the time that you introduced the standard essential patent licensing program in China, you had indicated that negotiations around nonessential IP would be done separately. But I don't think we've really seen any movement there. So, it seems like you're moving towards a standard essential patent-only licensing program, and I'm wondering how we should expect you to be able to collect on nonessential IP and how this may impact bringing the non-complying unnamed licensee into compliance. Thank you.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So with respect to the unnamed licensee, having a consistent program that's widely adopted is very good thing from a comp perspective. So, it actually creates an environment that enables us to essentially engage in the ongoing negotiations with that licensee from a position of strength, essentially saying that this is a widely adopted program. So, that unnamed licensee is an outlier. In terms of SEP-only in the rest of the portfolio, there are a number of licensees that still have portfolio-wide agreements and will continue with those portfolio-wide agreements. And we expect that to happen. As I said, it will be a mix. The rest of the portfolio is still valuable. It's a very large portfolio, as you know, 130 patents and pending applications.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
130,000.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
130,000 patents and pending applications. And the value and strength of that portfolio, I think, is demonstrated in the assertions that we've had when we've had to have them, including against a company in China that signed up to a license and the assertions that we're making now in our litigation where over 40 nonessential – excuse me, over 50 nonessential patents are being asserted. So, the rest of the portfolio is still valuable and licensees will still want to have portfolio-wide protection. In fact, we have many portfolio-wide agreements that will continue. It will be a mix.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Just one question and one follow-up. So, I guess, two questions here. Just to wrap up the QTL side of things, embedded in the $5.25 base and then the road towards $7, et cetera, in your 2019 goal, do you believe that the implied royalty rate that we had before of roughly 2.9% will be higher or lower given all the moving parts that you've described on today's call? And then the second question more for George, specifically, on the OpEx cuts and the $1 billion number, can you talk a little bit about the linearity of that, when are we going to start to see some of those absolute dollars come out? And how important is that litigation that's currently elevated, going back to some normalized level, how important is that in getting to the $1 billion annualized savings? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah. Hi, Ross. This is George. So on the implied royalty rate, obviously, there's a lot of moving parts when you have two major licensees, one of which is reporting, one of which is not reporting. So it's really not a very meaningful number, which is why we have stopped guiding total reported device sales and some of these other items. We think the rates that are embedded in the SEP-only licenses are fully consistent, as we said, in the run rate that we had factored into the FY 2019 numbers. As you remember, we actually announced the 5G program in last November. Also, if you applied them to the volumes, these same standards to the volumes of the non-paying licensees, you would very easily get to our $6.75 to $7.50 range. So, I think that's a key point. And with respect to litigation normalization, the cost reduction program expects to take out $1 billion in the run rate without relying on a change in the litigation run rate of the company. I would describe that as a peace dividend that would flow through post the resolution of the litigation matters.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Equity. Please go ahead with your question.
Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet:
Yes. Thank you, guys. I had two questions. One, George, just the litigation costs rising a little bit in June. Should we assume this level for litigation for the foreseeable future? That's the first question. The second question, I just wanted to ask about just the smartphone market overall and unit growth. You guys mentioned in your monologue that replacement rates are going out. When we saw this happen with PCs, unit growth actually went negative and today we're seeing weakness in smartphones that for the most part seems fairly broad-based. And I guess my question is what makes you confident that this weakness we're seeing is just temporary and that the market overall can grow from here? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So on the litigation pattern, where we're in a period during this quarter, Q3, where we have very, very significant discovery processes and active preparation for multiple cases. So I would like to believe that this represents kind of a high water mark, but of course it's very important that we get this right. So we're going to spend what we need to spend as we see necessary to protect our licensing program. But I would say the second half is going to be heavier in the fiscal year 2018 than the first half, but we're kind of at a level now where we're supporting a lot of activity on multiple fronts. So I don't expect it to be significantly higher on a run-rate basis, but it could be sustained at this level for a little period of time. In terms of the handset market and units, what you're really seeing is the impact of replacement rates has really slowed growth. In the developed markets you're getting a little bit of growth in Europe. But the emerging markets continue to be a positive source of growth, and in particular in India, in Southeast Asia, in Middle East, Africa, we're continuing to still see healthy mid to high, well you've seen double-digit growth in India and mid to high single digit growth in some of these other areas. So I think that remains a positive. Also we think in 2019, you're starting to see the first 5G phones come into the marketplace, and as you go in 2019 and into 2020, you could start to see a replacement cycle just really driven by people wanting to take advantage of the capabilities that 5G brings.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. George, I actually had two questions. The first is I'm wondering how you handicapped for the fiscal 2019 guidance, how you handicapped the potential for the trade issues to broaden. Obviously, there's news now that Huawei's being looked at as well. So I'm wondering how you handicap that in your guidance, number one. And then number two, the guidance for the June quarter. If I read your comments right, are you basically saying that the normalized earnings guidance, if you assume that 8% tax rate that you had said previously, would be like $0.50? Thanks.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Tim, so on the first, obviously the trade talks are current, and it's very hard to forecast. Those were not part of our thinking, and we've seen even in China some pretty big swings in demand intra-quarter. So there's always going to be market fluctuations, but we think the fundamentals, if we think about the licensing business, the fundamentals, particularly on ASPs, are a real tailwind for that business going into 2019. We also like the growth that we're seeing in our adjacent businesses and we like our position overall in China. But we'll have to see. The trade issues are an intangible. We'll have to see how that plays out. In terms of the June quarter, what I would say is if you back out simply the tax items, which to me are really fundamentally offsetting what is a weaker market. Also clearly ZTE is coming out of there. We have the absence of some onetime items that were in our Q2 that are not in the Q3. So I think it would be wrong to draw a line to $0.50, which is what I think your question was.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Danely with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey, thanks guys. Just a question on plan B if NXP does not happen. Could you give us any color on what the potential size and timing of a buyback would be? And then if this does not go through, does this necessarily sort of end any M&A potential for you guys? Or would you look at doing something else?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So on plan B, it would be a large, very large program. It would be in the $20 billion to $30 billion range. Obviously, at these prices we think the stock price is quite attractive. We don't think M&A would necessarily be closed off to the company. We think these are pretty unusual circumstances that we're seeing today. So we will continue to look at opportunities to add to the portfolio over time. We will generate the kind of cash flow that will allow us to consider other options down the road.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Srini Pajjuri - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. I just have a clarification. I guess, Alex, can you talk about where we are in the SEP-only transition in terms of how long will it take? And then I guess the real question is you're guiding for $950 million in QTL revenue for Q2 or the next quarter. And then you also said that that run rate will come back to $1 billion to $1.1 billion. So I'm just trying to understand what will drive that incremental growth.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So this is George. Maybe I'll take the second question first and then Alex can jump in. So remember that our Q3 is the very weak calendar Q1 quarter for QTL, so you're seeing some seasonal elements there. That being said, we believe in addition to some of the other moving parts that I talked about, not to mention just the general, the broader market weakness and the seasonal elements, the lower out-of-period, you factor all of those elements in and also we're continuing to see very strong ASPs and ASP growth in the marketplace. That all moves you towards the $1 billion to $1.1 billion number.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
And then with respect to the first part of the question, the chronology is that in November when we announced the 5G program, the SEP program including 5G release 2015, we're anticipating devices coming to market in second half of 2019, so we've got close to a two-year window. And there are a number of agreements that will extend through this entire timeframe. Those agreements, there are a number of agreements that will simply remain in place but there are other agreements that will come up for extensions and renewals. And so the timing of the announcement was to essentially provide transparency before the release, the specification was adopted but also to facilitate a transition to negotiating these agreements, these extensions and renewals during this current timeframe. And we expect that to happen with significant pace. So we do expect a number of agreements to be reached or renewals and extensions to be reached even in this quarter and in the following quarters, both on an SEP-only basis but also on a portfolio-wide basis.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please go ahead with your question.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Thanks very much. I have a question for Alex and a follow-up for Cristiano. Alex, I just wanted to talk about the non-SEP part of the portfolio. So you said there was a transition where you'll be offering SEP-only licenses. Can you talk about the nonstandard essential portfolio and how you plan to monetize the patents here from a licensing perspective? What royalty rates do you think can be achieved here and how many deals have you signed already for non-SEP only deals thus far?
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
So the history of the licensing business is that most licensees have wanted full portfolio agreements. It's the most efficient and most cost efficient way to take a license to this portfolio. And so the commercialization of the non-SEPs has always been in the context of full portfolio agreements. It is very rare that a company asks us for a separate license to non-SEPs only. So typically a company will want a full portfolio agreement if they want full protection. Again, that has happened historically the majority of the time. We don't have a separate distinct program at this point in time for non-SEPs. Again, our primary commercial objective is to license the full portfolio, but we do have a number of aspects of the portfolio, for example, in multimedia, in position location and then other areas where if we decide to do it, we can license them on a disaggregated basis, But that's really all that I can say about that at this point.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
And so you have not licensed any company who have taken SEP only. There's a whole raft of nonessential patents that you have not licensed to these companies that are taking SEP-only deals. Is there a plan to monetize that out with doing platform deals, trading up to a platform deal so to speak?
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Again, I'll go back to what I said before. I apologize if it wasn't clear, but the licensees have typically wanted, overwhelmingly wanted, full portfolio agreements. SEP-only licensing has been primarily a function of the program that we laid out in China and very successfully established in China since 2015. And we do expect that on a go-forward basis, even though we've offered SEP-only in the past, on a go forward basis there will be more companies that want SEP-only to include 5G. But the primary commercialization of the rest of the portfolio will be in the context of full portfolio licensing.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. I just want to thank everyone for joining us on the call today. I also want to thank the employees for their hard work and I just want to say that the management team and the company will continue to focus on executing toward our fiscal year 2019 targets and we look forward to updating you next quarter on our progress. Thank you everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Sinnott - IR Steve Mollenkopf - CEO George Davis - CFO Cristiano Amon - President Alex Rogers - EVP Don Rosenberg - General Counsel
Analysts:
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Romit Shah - Nomura Equity Srini Pajjuri - Macquarie Securities James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Brett Simpson - Arete Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank John Pitzer - Credit Suisse
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, January 31, 2018. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 39466104. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. We have also recently provided a presentation detailing how we are creating substantial near and long-term value for our shareholders, including our fiscal 2019 financial forecast. That presentation as well as additional materials, including videos from our management team are available at qcomvalue.com. And now, the comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, John and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report a strong set of results in our first fiscal quarter with non-GAAP earnings per share above the high end of our prior guidance range, driven by better than expected ASPs and units reported by our Chinese licensees and stronger than expected demand for MSMs. Our strong results reflect the actions we have taken to drive our strategic objectives and improve profitability. We are benefiting from our technology and product leadership in mobile and leveraging that leadership into a growing set of opportunities across RF Front End, Auto, IoT, mobile compute and networking. Our fiscal second quarter guidance reflects some higher than normal seasonality due to near-term inventory build in the handset market, consistent with what others are reporting as well as the ongoing impact of our non-paying licensees. In QCT, we expect the strong year-over-year performance to continue in our fiscal second quarter, driven by favorable mix and product cost actions. Longer-term, our outlook for our business remains unchanged as we continue to see positive trends with higher than expected global smartphone ASPs in QTL and stronger share and product trends in QCT across multiple growth areas. We made two very important announcements today that expand and strengthen our overall relationship with Samsung. In our licensing business, we announced that we have amended and expanded our long-term licensing agreement. The license remains at the device level and continues through 2023. It is important to note that the amended agreement reached with Samsung is fully consistent with brand licensing practices and is consistent with our long term model. More importantly, it provides the foundation for a long-term stable licensing relationship with Samsung following the KFTC investigation. And importantly, as part of the agreement, Samsung is withdrawing its opposition to our appeal of the KFTC's order. We look forward to continuing our long and mutually beneficial relationship with Samsung for many years ahead. In our product business, we also announced a multi-year strategic agreement with Samsung in various technology areas and across a range of mobile devices. This agreement expands the company's longstanding relationship as technology and business partners into 2018 and beyond as we transition to 5G. QCT had another very successful Consumer Electronics Show earlier this month with important product and partner announcements across RF Front End, auto, networking, mobile computing and IoT. QCT and its partners were awarded 52 Best of CES Awards this year, up from 17 last year, clearly indicating execution in adjacent opportunities and the strength of our design pipeline. In automotive, we now have more than $3 billion of order backlog, including more than $1 billion of order backlog in infotainment alone. At CES, we announced new auto designs with Honda, Jaguar Land Rover and BYD in China as well as a collaboration with Ford on cellular V2X. We also announced new flagship RF Front End design wins with Google, HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung and Sony, as we expand our share position, including filter rich modules and newly designed gallium arsenide power amplifiers. We also introduced our unique 5G tunable front end solution, which utilizes modem intelligence at a system level to dynamically tune multimode RF performance and power efficiency when sharing radio frequencies and components across 3G, 4G and 5G. We believe this disruptive technology will transition RF Front End design leadership from dedicated component suppliers back to the system solution provider in 5G, consistent with what happened with prior wireless generation transitions. In networking, we announced solutions with expanded WiFi mesh capabilities as well as a new and upgraded mesh networking platform. We are the number one provider of retail and enterprise WiFi and we are reshaping the carrier segment with our mesh solutions while gaining share from key incumbents. Our success in networking is a result of a deliberate investment several years ago to position our WiFi business with the structural changes we anticipated in the market. Last week, we also made some significant announcements at our China Technology Summit in Beijing, further demonstrating our strong ecosystem partnerships and product leadership in China. Lenovo, OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi joined us at the summit to announce that each had signed non-binding MOUs for the multi-year purchase of our RF Front End solutions, totaling at least $2 billion, which would represent a substantial increase in our RF Front End share at these accounts. The scope of our broad RF Front End platform includes gallium arsenide Pas, envelope trackers, LNAs, multimode PA and modules, RF switches, discrete filters and filter rich modules and antenna tuners across cellular and connectivity technologies. We also announced collaboration agreements in China called the 5G Pioneer initiative with Lenovo, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, ZTE and Wingtech for the development of advanced 5G Mobile devices, targeting the 2019 timeframe. 5G represents a market discontinuity in the mobile ecosystem and it coincides with China based OEM's plans to expand globally in the premium tier. In our dispute with Apple, we continue to move closer toward a number of key legal milestones later this year and early next year. In various jurisdictions around the world, in cases concerning Apple's infringement of Qualcomm's patents, there will be hearings and determinations on whether Qualcomm should be entitled to injunctive relief and exclusion orders. Also, Qualcomm's case against Apple's contract manufacturers for breach of their license agreements continues to move toward resolution in the same timeframe, as does Qualcomm's case against Apple for improperly interfering with those license agreements. We value Apple as a customer and would like to continue that relationship into the future, but it is in our stockholders best interest that we ensure that Apple pay a fair and reasonable royalty and operate on a level playing field with the other OEMs. While the litigation with Apple is necessary to protect our IP assets and our contract rights, we remain open to finding a path to resolution and collaboration with Apple as a partner. Turning to demand trends for 3G, 4G devices around the world. Consistent with what others have been reporting, we are forecasting some short-term end market softness, driven by larger than typical sequential correction in orders from a fin modem customer and near term smartphone trends in China. George will provide more details on our updated forecast, but we continue to see favorable long term trends, including flagship handset launches later this year and the ramp of 5G device shipments beginning in early calendar 2019. Turning to our pending acquisition of NXP, with recent approvals in both Europe and Korea, only Chinese regulatory approval remains and we hope to receive that soon. We continue to see this as an attractive deal for both our stockholders and NXP’s stockholders at $110 per share as the combination brings together a comprehensive set of capabilities to address next generation auto and IoT devices and provides us with greater scale in auto, IoT, security and networking with their highly complementary products and world-class sales channel. On January 16, we released an investor presentation that outlined the near term and long term value opportunity for our stockholders and our plan to deliver $6.75 to $7.50 in non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal 2019. We believe this appropriately frames the core earnings power of Qualcomm and the multiple levers we have within our control to achieve this, along with a significant value for our shareholders as we work through our outstanding licensing disputes. We took a conservative approach to modeling our fiscal year ’19 earnings target and our management team is very committed to driving this result for our shareholders. We outlined a huge opportunity for growth and diversification through our expansion into new complementary adjacent opportunities. This growth is underpinned by the expansion of our service addressable market from $23 billion in 2015 to approximately $150 billion in 2020 or more than six times the size of Qualcomm's 2015 SAM. Another important area of value creation is 5G and Qualcomm is leading the industry. Whether you are a phone maker and infrastructure company or a network operator, Qualcomm is already identified as the key partner for accelerating your roadmap to 5G commercialization around the world. We are partnering with leaders across the globe as we work to bring 5G to market, including Verizon, AT&T, Nokia, Ericsson, China Mobile, SK Telecom, Telstra, Vodafone, Orange, NTT DoCoMo, T-Mobile, Sprint and now Samsung. Our announced 5G Pioneer initiative further builds on this strong global momentum. In closing, we reported a very strong set of results this quarter and our products and technologies are leading in their respective categories and are set to lead as we enter the 5G generation. These generation changes have always provided us with the opportunity to benefit from our significant technology lead and this will be true again to an even greater degree in 5G. Our technologies will expand into many industries as we enter the age of IoT, autonomous vehicles, always on mobile computing and ubiquitous networking. I will now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal first quarter non-GAAP results were very strong. Non-GAAP revenues were $6 billion, just above the midpoint of our prior guidance range and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.98, $0.08 above the midpoint of our guidance range, reflecting strong performance in both QCT and QTL, In QCT, MSM shipments were 237 million, towards the high end of our guidance range. Overall performance in QCT was above expectations, driven primarily by the higher unit volume on a build ahead for a customer’s flagship launch. QCT's earning before tax in the first fiscal quarter was up 32% year-over-year, the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, reflecting the strong MSM demand, improved product mix and product cost initiatives. QCT EBT margin was 21% for the quarter, above our prior guidance on the higher MSM volume and up more than 280 basis points over the same period last year. In QTL, revenues were $1.3 billion, at the high end of our prior guidance range, driven primarily by stronger than expected 3G, 4G device ASPs and units reported by OEMs in China for the September quarter. Recall that this excludes royalty revenues from Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute. QTL EBT margin was 68%, at the low end of our prior guidance. EBT margin would have been 72% or at the high end of prior guidance, if not for bad debt expense recorded in the quarter related to a licensee that is facing significant financial difficulties. This charge also accounted for the modestly higher than forecasted OpEx expense in the quarter. The GAAP loss this quarter reflected the impact of a $6 billion charge related to the enactment of US tax reform legislation and the accrual of the European Commission's $1.2 billion fine announced last week. These two charges impacted fiscal first quarter GAAP EPS by $4.79 per share and were excluded from non-GAAP results. The $6 billion book charge largely relates to the one time repatriation tax on our offshore deemed repatriated earnings and profits. After application of applicable tax credits, we expect to pay $3.3 billion in cash taxes, back end loaded over eight years, beginning in January 2019. In general, we expect US tax reform in the longer term to result in a modest positive improvement in our effective tax rate as the increase in tax on offshore innings is more than offset by the benefit to onshore earnings. The European Commission fine relates to a decision on its investigation of a modem chip agreement that was in effect from 2011 through 2016. While we disagree with the decision and will immediately appeal it to the General Court of the European Union, it is important to note that the decision does not relate to our licensing business and has no impact on ongoing operations. We will post a bond in lieu of paying the fine during the appeal period. Turning to return of capital, we returned $1.1 billion to stockholders in the quarter in the form of dividends and buybacks. Turning to our financial guidance for the fiscal second quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.75 per share. These expectations are reflecting weaker than forecasted smartphone demand in the December quarter. As a reminder, the fiscal second quarter is normally the seasonally high quarter for QTL revenues, absent the two disputes and the seasonally low quarter for QCT. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion in the fiscal second quarter, down approximately 4% sequentially at the midpoint. We expect QTL EBT margin to be approximately 64% to 68%, down sequentially at the midpoint on lower revenues and increased litigation expenses. It is important to note the impact of Apple nonpayment is more pronounced in the fiscal second quarter as it is typically an outsized quarter for royalties related to Apple products relative to other licensees, given the timing of their product launch cycle. Our QTL revenue forecast for our second quarter is also being impacted by softer sell through as demand in China in the December quarter was down on a year-over-year basis. We'll be closely watching Chinese New Year device sell through results to assess the time period necessary for the supply and demand dynamics to rebalance. Turning to the chip business, we expect MSM shipments of approximately 170 million to 190 million units. This outlook includes the normal seasonal effects of lower demand in the calendar first quarter, a larger than normal reduction in orders sequentially from a large modem customer as well as near-term lower than expected orders from customers, particularly in China on inventory concerns from the demand dynamics. This forecast is consistent with continued strong chip share in the quarter. We expect QCT revenue per MSM to be up on a sequential basis in the fiscal second quarter, driven by seasonal factors and favorable product mix. We expect QCT’s fiscal second quarter EBT margin to be approximately 13% to 15%, down sequentially on lower MSM volumes, offset by benefits from product cost initiatives, but up 100 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal second quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be flat to down approximately 2% sequentially, as increased litigation expenses and the reset of Employee Benefit taxes are more than offset by the absence of the prior bad debt charge. We will be implementing the cost reduction initiatives in the quarter and are in the process of determining the expected charges for severance and other related costs. We will provide that information once that estimate is finalized. Non-GAAP interest expense, net of investment income, in the fiscal second quarter is expected to be roughly flat sequentially at approximately $60 million. Given the market dynamics we have described, we are updating our unit outlook for calendar year global 3G, 4G devices for both 2017 and 2018. For calendar year 2017, we have adjusted the midpoint lower and narrowed our range. We now expect 3G, 4G device shipments of approximately 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion units, up approximately 4% at the midpoint year-over-year. For calendar year 2018, we are bringing down our estimate modestly to reflect the lower 2017 base. We now estimate a range of 1.85 billion to 1.95 billion 3G, 4G device shipments for calendar 2018 or up approximately 7% from the midpoint of our expectations for calendar 2017. With respect to fiscal 2018 global 3G 4G device else, we now expect global device ASPs will increase year-over-year, based on strength at the mid and premium tiers as opposed to our previous expectation of a low single digit percentage decline. We are not revising our estimate for fiscal 2018 device sales until we get a clear picture of whether the ASP pick up well more than offset the sell through issues discussed earlier. Turning to 2019, we continue to be highly confident in our outlook for fiscal 2019 as recently disclosed in our investor presentation with base non-GAAP EPS of $5.25, growing to between $6.75 and $7.50 per share upon resolution of the licensing disputes. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets.
Tim Long:
Just wanted a little more color on the Samsung arrangements here. It sounds like you extended with FRAND terms, just talk to us a little bit, I know the prior deal had an upfront payment, it had some technology IPR transfers as well, so can you just talk a little bit about how those two in the new collaboration factor into the FRAND rate discussion for Samsung? And then I have a follow-up after that.
Alex Rogers:
Tim, this is Alex. So the amended and expanded agreement basically takes the prior deal and just adds some changes to it. So a lot of what was in the prior deal remains in place. So for example, the upfront payment that you talked about. The key things to keep in mind about this Samsung amended license agreement is that it's consistent with our FRAND licensing practices. It remains a license at the handset level. This is not a chipset level royalty bearing license. And so it also -- one key element also is an expansion of rights back to Qualcomm to Samsung's patent portfolio. And one of the key factors to keep in mind is that as part of this amendment and this new arrangement with Samsung, Samsung is going to be withdrawing from its intervention in the KFTC appeal, adverse to Qualcomm. So they'll no longer participate in that matter adverse to Qualcomm. And from a financial perspective, it supports the numbers that we put out for 2019 fiscal year and beyond and provides a strong foundation for Qualcomm and its relationship with Samsung through 2023.
Tim Long:
And then just if I could just follow-up on the China business, it sounds like a lot of moving parts there. September was really strong for the device manufacturers, then weakening. Could you just talk a little bit about what you think is going on with the reason for the change in demand there and second could you talk -- it's been a pretty good market share gain region for you. Can you talk about if you still think you're taking share in the Chinese end market? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Tim. This is Cristiano. I think we talk about a near-term weakness in the domestic China market based on the sell through data in the December quarter and that was contemplated in our guidance. I think you need to think about there was a super -- expect a super cycle and I think one of the flagships and you think that the Chinese OEMs didn't want to go ahead and most of the new products are going to launch in the Chinese New Year. So that’s one thing on the demand sell through in the December quarter. I think we will monitor the Chinese New Year data and whatever could be inventory into the quarter, we should rebalance in the first half of the year. We also see that the forecast is consistent with two things happening for QCT. I think both are strong chip share with those OEMs as well as mix improvements. So we can't really talk about the second half of the year, but the Chinese New Year launches is just ahead of us.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley:
Cristiano, just talking about 5G, Qualcomm historically gains share with new wireless technologies. Can you just update us on how you see 5G ramping and why Qualcomm is ahead of the competition, maybe what technology areas you see the competitors might lack and then also just on the China side, also a follow up question, just can you talk about some of these RF agreement and how you see your RF business ramping over the next two years?
Cristiano Amon:
Yes, Mike. So let me start with 5G. We have been pretty consistent talking about a 5G acceleration in the industry and we now probably have line of sight of a number of the appointments that are going to happen of the network, of the 3GPP global 5G standard in the later part of this year and we are working with a number of OEMs to have smartphone launches in the first half of 2019. And part of that, I think we also announced in China last week a 5G Pioneer I think program of a number of OEMs of the China market, they see 5G as a discontinuity to basically enable their expansion plans to become global players, leveraging their 5G transition. So I think the motivation to have early launches in the first half of 19 is high and we’re marching towards that date. So your second question is about competitiveness of 5G. 5G brings a number of complex technologies. One is you have the foundation, which is gigabit LTE, which is we've been investing in 4G continuous to evolve the 17 smartphones in the market today with that capabilities used in a Qualcomm modem. We also have the addition of two other frequencies, sub-6 and millimeter wave and we continue to see complexities in the RF. So we're looking at our position as been a company that has been in a good position for the 4G, which continues to evolve and being supporting multiple global activities with 5G. We have announced probably trials in over the year, I think test towards all of the infrastructure vendors across all of the operators launched. So I think scale is going to be an advantage for us and we're optimistic about the prospect. Your last question is RF Front End. We announce a total of $2 billion in RF Front End purchase across four OEMs. We're starting to ramp designs. I think, it's probably a second set of announcements. The first one was CES, when we announced a number of OEMs and then Chinese OEMs was in the second wave. We also feel good about the 5G story in front end. When 5G technology gets launched, I believe the baseband in the system platform, the reference design plays a stronger role in defining RF Front End configuration. As part of the same discussion, we saw support in China for our tunable front end solution.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.
Amit Daryanani:
Couple from me as well. Could you maybe help us understand how much of an impact are you seeing in your revenue line from the China inventories that you guys talked about and do you think this is something that gets worked through the March quarter or could it persist through the June quarter as well?
George Davis:
Clearly, I think two major factors when we think about Q2 is, one is the China weakness really impacted customers that felt they were going to have a stronger sell through at the end of December. And so as Cristiano said, we're going to be watching very closely the Chinese New Year sales to see how much of that gets absorbed in the second quarter. So we don't know yet. There may be some activity that carries on beyond that. But for our revenue overall in the second quarter, there are some other factors that are also at play. One in the licensing business, normally, obviously, this is the very strong quarter for licensing, but it also happens to have usually a very heavy weighting of Apple because their flagship launch tends to take place as you know in the fourth calendar quarter, which is the second fiscal quarter for our licensing business. The absence of that, we're not seeing as much of a seasonal pick up as we would normally see there plus the licensing estimates reflect the lower sell through that we ended up seeing in December that really didn't impact the chip business.
Amit Daryanani:
And I guess if I could follow up, the OpEx guide that you guys have for March quarter, if my math is working correctly, the implication is OpEx as a percent of sales will be something north of 35%, and I realize there are some one-time variables there, but should we talk about what are these one-time variables, what’s the right way to think about OpEx as a percentage of revenues and when do you get to realize all the $1 billion cost takeout benefits you talked about.
George Davis:
Yeah. I think the OpEx as a percent of revenue, it certainly had a little bit of a bounce, but that was more in Q1 relative to the bad debt charge. When I think about OpEx for the company, I think you've seen really since the strategic realignment plan, the major drivers of any pick up have either been our investment in pre-commercial 5G or the increase that you've seen in SG&A to support the higher litigation and model defense spending that we have. We think under the $1 billion plan, we can absorb the 5G costs that you've seen. We think as we move our focus further into these new sort of available markets we've talked about, we're going to be able to reprioritize our investment portfolio and take an additional cost out, but really the biggest savings are going to come out of SG&A, which has been a big driver of our growth in OpEx over the last four or five years. In particular, in the licensing area and in this model defense and we think we have a clear path to -- by ’19 to getting some of those costs taken back out. Of course, we'll have a real focus on overhead cost as well as part of the SG&A.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon:
I had a question on the 2019 guidance. So you're talking a lot about 5G ramping and everything else, which sounds great. But it seems like if I take a look at that guide, 525 without fixing licensing, 375 without the buyback, if I take out the 1 billion cost cut that isn't really in numbers right now, it's more like 315, which seems to be quite a bit worse than where the street is and I would say inconsistent with some of your commentary on some of the good things coming down the pipe. So I guess can we talk a little bit more about what's actually in that guide, what are you assuming is getting worse between now and then. You mentioned Samsung's new royalty payment line with your numbers, are those getting worse versus where they are now, what you assuming for Apple share and any color you can give us on that would be helpful? And then I have a follow up.
George Davis:
Sure, Stacy. This is George. I think your math is generally good, but what we – I think what's missing is we’ve said we're going to put some conservative assumptions into the numbers that quite frankly if you did the math based on a run rate today, you would say would be a lower run rate than we're experiencing today and that is by taking out Apple, all Apple revenue related to new products, including both the modem and the front end and saying if for whatever reason, we're still litigating or pursuing an agreement with Apple and haven't reached it and they decide to take the decision to carve us out completely, what does that look like? So again the purpose of that estimate was really to provide stockholders with a high confidence based number before resolution of the licensing. So as they consider alternatives that they can understand what does the kind of core earnings look like on a conservative basis, but you're right, it would be below the run rate today and it was purposefully conservative. We also have some tax impact in the 525 number. Tax reform for us is a little higher tax on offshore earnings, lower earnings on onshore. Net-net, it's slightly positive, but when you break it out the way we did in that analysis, it's negative in the 525 and it's positive on the resolution basis.
Stacy Rasgon:
So my follow-up, you mentioned a lot of the 1 billion coming out of SG&A and obviously have a lot of accelerated litigation and other costs there. Is it imperative that you actually do sell out licensing in time for 2019 in order to realize that full 1 billion.
George Davis:
No. We think there's some contribution but that's not the primary driver. We’ll be -- again we’ve grown SG&A within the licensing business beyond that as part of the process of addressing the many other challenges leading up to this. We think we have some opportunities there. We certainly believe that as we look at our roadmap that we had to reduce overhead related SG&A over time, we’ll take the steps necessary to accelerate that. So we're not highly dependent solely on a piece dividend to get this number. We think we'll be able to deliver the number.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Equity.
Romit Shah:
I had two. George, just on the tax rate. There's a lot there. Could you just tell us within the fiscal ’19 EPS guide, what's the tax rate that you're assuming? And then the other question I had was just on NXPI. It would seem that closing this deal in a timely manner would be an important part of your value creation story. And so assuming you close or you get regulatory approval from China, could you give us a feel for what the timeline would look like from there to the actual closure of the deal?
George Davis:
So on tax, we've guided the tax rate this year for non-GAAP at 8%. Obviously with the impact of tax reform and the fine, which is not tax deductible, the GAAP number doesn't really hold a lot of information. For ’19, we would, as I said, long term, we expect the tax rate to be somewhat accretive relative to our history. We have not guided, but we were in the midteens before in our tax rate and I would be closer to that number than I would to the guide for ’18. And then on NXP, not a lot we can say at this time other than we're very focused on working with MOFCOM to secure the final approval. Shortly after regulatory approval, the tender process will begin and then within -- depending on, there's two tender processes anticipated depending on how that process goes and you could close within say three weeks of the approval of regulatory.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie Securities.
Srini Pajjuri:
Cristiano, just a question on the RF strategy. It looks like you're winning a lot of designs out there. If I look at the landscape out there, the margin profile in that business is quite strong at least at the operating margin level. As you expand your footprint, how should we think about QCT margins? Do you see an expansion potential here or are you being a little bit aggressive on the pricing side, given that you're starting very early?
Cristiano Amon:
We talk about in our 2019 projections, I think this could contribute $2 billion to $3 billion in revenue and I think we're starting to, as we have the complete portfolio and particularly the ones that have higher value such as the PA and the high filter content modules, we see as an opportunity for us to grow faster than the market because we attach an existing MSM and an expansion of margin contribution in the device and I think that's consistent with the strategy we have pursued of diversifying and growing in other areas, leveraging our existing channel.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.
James Faucette:
I had a couple of quick follow-up questions. I guess the first one for Cristiano, you talked about bringing to market a mobile device 5G in 2019. At the same time, we've heard a range of comments from carriers on their own outlook for 5G. So maybe you can help us understand kind of their circumstances and the geographies where 5G starts to make first -- makes sense first and then where we would sit it develop from there. And then I guess my second follow-up question is just on the cost containment or reduction program, what are the things that would allow you to expand that further and further reduce expenses versus what are the competing elements that may limit it to that roughly $1 billion target? Thank you very much.
Cristiano Amon:
I'll take the first one and I’ll ask George to answer the second question. So on 5G, I think 5G as it becomes a significant contributor of volumes are really looking at the fiscal 2020, but early launches in ’19 are very important and particularly, for our position in the chipset, I think early launches and ability to cover that globally define your competitive position and the ability to have a mature product, so you can ramp volumes in premier devices through fiscal ‘20. As you think about the launches in geographies, we see activity across all the developed markets, we see activity in the United States with at least two of the four carriers that is consistent with the timeline of starting to have the devices launching in the first half of ’19. We see in Europe, at least three operators. You should expect in markets such as the UK and markets such as Germany, you’re going to see a high degree activity. Many of those operators, we had announced trial activities and the timeline is the same as the first half of the 2019. Of course, you have Korea with all of the operators driving o the timeframe. You do have a technology race there. You have Australia in the same timeframe and you have Japan towards the second half of ’19, beginning of 2020. The most significant data point is the one that I’m providing last, which is China Mobile. In an event that we had in China last week, I think the executive management of China Mobile made a presentation together with Qualcomm talking about a very large scale activity in the second half of ’19. The reason China is important because China, it's a very technology focus and harder focus market and as you look at the position that the Chinese OEMs have in the market, that enables an acceleration of the scale for the smartphone market. So China is likely going to be a significant development in the second half of ’19.
George Davis:
On OpEx, I think the -- if you think about our R&D, we're always going to be focused on making the level of R&D investment that is necessary to keep us ahead in things like generation transistors and where you’ve seen today. So the ramp -- one of the ramps, the biggest part of the ramp and spending over the last couple years has really been tied to 5G. I’'s absolutely critical not only to the ability of the chip business to come out very strong in a leadership position in the early phase of the generation, but it's also why the value of our licensing program remains strong throughout the ecosystem. So you're going to see us take actions that are consistent with maintaining a strong level of R&D to preserve that position over time. We do think that SG&A has been inflated by a number of the challenges that we've seen over time. We think we have the opportunity to take that down, something on the order of 200 to 300 basis points on a stabilized basis. And we will look very strong within the industry with SG&A at that level. It'll look like a very appropriate cost structure, but we’ll always have a little more focus on R&D because quite frankly we have the channels to get a return on that R&D, not only from the chip business and the licensing business but we're now seeing an even greater return on R&D as we expand in to automotive, IoT, networking, mobile compute, all of these markets are looking to the technologies that we lead in mobile as part of their next roadmap. And so we think that's ahead of us. We think that's part of the growth and we think anything we do on this billion dollar OpEx action will be consistent with that outlook.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete.
Brett Simpson:
I just had a question about the margin structure in QCT long term. I guess when you look at leadership franchises in semiconductor, you’ve seen margins structurally rise over the last few years, typically leadership franchises that are returning 40% or so operating margins. And if I look at your QCT PBT margins, they have been really disappointing in the 4G era. So I was just wondering when you look to 5G and you believe you have a competitive advantage, a structural competitive advantage in this market and you're going to be selling more platform into RF and baseband and RF has been a much higher returns business than QCT over the years, is it a path where you see the QCT margin starting to inflect and you can reflect the returns of a real leadership franchise long term? Thank you.
George Davis:
This is George. As we said, we expect QCT margins to continue to improve over time and rise above the 20% level. But one of the things I would point out, we've said that the growth in adjacencies has been a positive in that respect and it's certainly growing. It is accretive to the margin profile and I think it is getting us into markets where the structure -- the margin structure is more attractive over time. And so we'll continue to push hard on margin expansion and I should point out as the 2019 performance that we put out for the company doesn't include the margin benefit that we would expect to see as we enter the 5G era where we get both improvements in share and improvements in ASPs in the new devices and that's part of even in the core business where we're going to see expansion of margin.
Brett Simpson:
And maybe just a follow-up on the Samsung arrangement that you announced, does it have any bearing on how you think about foundry relationships long term. I think in the last couple of years, you've been exclusively using Samsung LSI at 14-nanometer and I'm wondering whether that's something you think will continue as you move to 7 or particularly with this recent agreement with Samsung or will you be multi-sourcing leading edge going forward? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Brett, it’s Steve. In terms of sourcing agreements, I would say we make them on an individual basis depending on what node and the details of a node. So it really just depends on the generation in terms of where we go. Now that being said, I think it is advantageous for us to have a broader set of assets in the company to be able to resolve issues with companies. And so we view our wafer volume and the fact that we have wafer volume from RF to the leading node as being a strategic asset for us. It's actually proven to be that way over the last several years. So I won't talk about where we're going, but I do think it is something that helps us strategically.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
Ross Seymore:
Two quick questions here. First on the QTL side, when you put your fiscal ’19 earnings targets out there, it looks like you have a high level of confidence that the licensing issues will be resolved. So my first question is what gives you that confidence? And then the second question that's somewhat related is I wondered if we could get an update if any on the unnamed dispute that's going on and I assume given the arrangements today and agreement that that second dispute is not with Samsung? So those are the two questions.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Ross, well maybe I'll start and I’ll kick it to Don to provide some detail here, but on the disputes, a couple of things. I think there are a number of legal milestones that occur this year that are helpful typically in a licensing dispute, legal milestones provide an opportunity and a forcing function for the parties to sit down and to finally work things out. We've seen that in the case of our past history, both recently and over the last decade, which I think is helpful. Don can – with any follow up can answer that pretty well. I'm sorry you had another question toward the end.
Don Rosenberg:
So on the unnamed other licensee, our practice has been that while we still believe there is -- it's productive to continue with negotiations that we don't name the licensee in a dispute. t's only when we get to the point where we feel like we've exhausted all practical activities there and so you should take that as we're still negotiating to see if we can resolve the dispute.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And I would say also, this is Steve again. I think that the significance of the agreements that we announced today with Samsung I think are -- I think they're pretty evident, but we're quite pleased with those agreements. They're consistent with what we have done in the past in our forward looking plan and I think they also provide a good benchmark or reference point for our general licensing program moving forward as well. So I think those things to us provide good indicators that I think we're headed in the right direction as a business.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.
John Pitzer:
I guess my first question is for Cristiano. Cristiano, I was wondering to make sure I understand the RF market opportunity. To what extent can you guys drive revenue on the 4G node versus the 5G node and I guess as you think about 5G and it sounds like your value proposition goes up significantly at 5G. How are you guys thinking about sort of the dollar capture potential per phone -- the incremental dollar capture?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, John. Thank you for the question. In 4G, we have been in the process to complete our product portfolio. We have been players within the antenna tuner and the envelope tracker and I think now we add into the portfolio starting to have designs and get ready to ship with our PAs in filters and actually going after the higher value segment, which is the multimode PA and the payment modules. And I think you're going to start that traction -- starting to happen within the second half of the year. That's the reason we talk about China in the China announcement with our OEMs. I think the China nature of the market, they look more of a system solution. I think as we establish our business there, we see a power off our MSM platform and be able to actually have a complete platform and so it's natural that you see that reaction coming from the China OEMs and that's how it's going to start building the business in 4G. As you said, 5G changes the landscape significantly because it changes giving a little bit more voice to the system solution provider and the baseband provider about what is the technology and they are at design that goes in the technology launch configuration as well as the opportunity for innovation with the tunable front end. And as we said earlier, I think we expect that to be an expansion of margins and allow us to grow faster than the market.
John Pitzer:
George, maybe as my follow-up, in your comments around the chipset guidance being below seasonal for March, you called out both in modems and China, I’m just kind of curious of the two which ones are the bigger driver of the below seasonal for the March quarter on the chipset business?
George Davis:
Yeah. I would say from a below seasonal, China certainly is a factor, because the drop off at the end of December was more significant than expected. I would say sequentially, clearly, the big pullback by the modem customer is an important factor as I look sequentially for the chip business.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you. Yes. I would just want to thank the employees for their hard work and for the good quarter, for the hard work in terms of not only delivering across the expectations, but also for the number of announcements that have gone out here over the last quarter or so. So keep up the good work. I really appreciate it. Thank you. We’ll see you all next time.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc. Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc. George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc. Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc. Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc. Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.
Analysts:
Matthew D. Ramsay - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc. Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP John William Pitzer - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, November 1, 2017. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 394660043. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Christiano Amon, Alex Rogers, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, the comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, John, good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report better-than-expected results in our fourth fiscal quarter, completing a year where we saw strong performance across our chip businesses, healthy global demand growth for 3G/4G devices, and we expanded on Qualcomm's fundamental leadership in 5G technologies. I am particularly pleased with the actions our teams have taken this year to advance the strategic objectives we set for the company. Almost two years ago, we set an ambitious target to significantly grow our serviceable available market by 2020. This past year saw substantial progress in the most critical new opportunities for the company. First, the announced acquisition of NXP provides important capabilities to grow our footprint in automotive, IoT and security. Second, we closed the RF front-end joint venture providing us with the remaining products and capabilities to fully compete in this growing area. Third, we announced the partnership with Microsoft to bring the advantages of low-power, high-performance computing to the mobile PC market. In QCT, product demand and mix trends continue to be favorable and profitability improved again this quarter; now six quarters in a row of year-over-year growth in EBT and EBT margin expansion. For fiscal 2017, QCT EBT dollars grew more than 50% year-over-year driven by our strong product portfolio, favorable product mix, and growth in China and adjacent areas. QCT revenues outside smartphones in adjacent areas were more than $3 billion in fiscal 2017, up more than 25% year-over-year driven by better-than-expected growth in auto, networking and IoT, as we continue to successfully execute on our strategy to extend our mobile technologies into these new growth areas. We continue to see good trends in our business in China. We increased our share in fiscal 2017 with approximately 25% year-over-year growth in both QCT revenues and MSM chip shipments to Chinese OEMs. And looking ahead, we are pleased to see 5G momentum there, including our 5G NR trial with China Mobile. In QTL, the second half of fiscal 2017 results were impacted by disputes with Apple and its contract manufacturers, as well as one other licensee. And we remain focused on defending our business and the value of our patented inventions for the long-term. 3G/4G trends around the world are very positive. We are pleased to see that global shipments of 3G/4G devices remain strong, and we continue to forecast calendar 2017 device shipments to grow 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. Looking ahead to calendar 2018, we forecast stronger growth with 3G/4G device shipments expected to grow approximately 8% year-over-year at the midpoint, reflecting continued handset shipment growth, as well as stronger year-over-year growth in non-handsets. In addition, estimated global 3G/4G device ASPs are trending better-than-expected with ASPs in fiscal 2017 flat versus fiscal 2016. The favorable end market trends for 3G/4G, the accelerating commercial timing for 5G, as well as the adoption of wireless technologies into new industries continues to be very positive for us. And our global scale, combined with our technology and product road map, are leading the industry. We are very excited about the increased momentum in 5G around the world. We are leading the industry and are accelerating the commercial launch of 5G across millimeter wave and sub-6 gigahertz in early 2019. We recently announced the world's first 5G data connection achieved on the Snapdragon X50 modem chip set, and our leading 5G 3GPP standards development, ongoing prototype efforts and are supporting global 5G new radio trials. In September, we announced our 5G new radio millimeter wave prototype that will be used for interoperability testing with our infrastructure vendor partners along with our previously announced sub-6 gigahertz prototype. With 5G commercial devices shipping in 2019, we expect to further expand our product and technology leadership position in modems. Gigabit LTE is the first step in network operator's transition to 5G, and there are now 41 operators in 24 countries supporting Gigabit LTE. We have demonstrated download speeds of greater than 1 gigabits using our X20 LTE modem in the U.S. with both Ericsson and Verizon, as well as Nokia and T-Mobile. Most leading device-makers are rapidly adopting Gigabit LTE into their device portfolios. In the premium tier, our gigabit-enabled Snapdragon 835 now has more than 120 designs launched and in development, including recent flagship devices like the Samsung Galaxy Note 8, Pixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL, LG V30, and the Xiaomi Mi MIX 2. We have also introduced new high-tier and mid-tier Snapdragon products to further expand our competitive position in China across all tiers. Turning to our pending acquisition of NXP. We remain focused on the last few regulatory approvals. We believe this acquisition will provide us with greater scale in automotive, IoT, security and networking, with their highly complementary products and world-class sales channel, serving a long tail of customers that are driving growth. Of the nine jurisdictions reviewing, we have approvals from five, including here in the U.S. and Taiwan with China and the EU the largest remaining. We are constructively working with each remaining regulator. And while the clock is stopped in Europe, there is nothing unexpected or surprising in that process for an acquisition of this size. Significant effort was expended throughout the year on integration planning with NXP. Along with NXP, we continue to see this as an attractive deal for both our stockholders and NXP stockholders at $110 per share, as the combination brings together a comprehensive set of capabilities to address next generation auto and IoT devices. We continue to focus on closing the acquisition by the end of calendar 2017 with a potential for the close to slip into 2018 based on the current status of approvals. On the regulatory matters, we are pursuing appeals and resolutions and are confident in the pro-competitive nature of our business. We will continue to appeal the KFTC ruling and look forward to presenting our case in the U.S. FTC matter in early 2019. In Taiwan, we strongly disagree with the recently announced decision and have significant objections concerning the lack of due process that led to the decision. We will appeal and seek to stay the decision. The TFTC ruling was not by consensus. We understand there was dissent among the commissioners resulting in a split decision. We were also pleased to see the Taiwanese Ministry of Economic affairs publicly question the TFTC process and decision. Finally, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and focused execution throughout this past year. The team reported strong results in the product business validating both our strategy and the strength of our product portfolio. We will maintain our strong commitment to and focus on technology and product leadership as we drive innovation into new opportunities and toward the path of 5G. I would now like to turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with comments on our fiscal fourth quarter and 2017 results, followed by our fiscal first quarter of 2018 guidance and some additional perspective on 2018 overall. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we delivered non-GAAP revenues of $6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.92. Performance was strong in our operating businesses relative to expectations, particularly in QCT. Non-GAAP EPS results exceeded the high end of our prior guidance range by $0.07 with the majority of that outperformance coming from QCT with the balance from QTL and better-than-expected performance in our investment portfolio. QCT delivered strong results with revenues of $4.7 billion, reflecting MSM shipments above the midpoint of expectations. QCT EBT margin was 21%, above the high end of expectations on the higher unit volume, improved product mix, and product cost initiatives. QCT earnings before tax was up 42% year-over-year in the quarter. In QTL, revenues were $1.2 billion and EBT margin was 68%, both above the midpoint of expectations, driven primarily by better-than-expected 3G/4G device ASPs due to a favorable mix of premium tier devices, as well as strong ASPs from Chinese OEMs in the quarter. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were up 3% sequentially, at the high end of expectations on increased 5G investment and litigation expenses as we continue to defend our business model on several fronts. Investment income in the quarter came in ahead of expectations due to market favorability as we nearly completed the liquidation of our RISC (11:42) portfolio in advance of the NXP deal close. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 18% in the quarter, and our GAAP rate at 61% reflected the impact of the non deductible TFTC fine. Now, turning to fiscal 2017. Non-GAAP revenues for the year were $23.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.28. Non-GAAP gross margin at 60% of revenues was a good story for the company in 2017 as strong gross margin performance in QCT nearly offset the impact of the licensing disputes. Non-GAAP free cash flow was approximately $6.1 billion, down 15% year-over-year. We returned $4.6 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2017, including approximately $3.3 billion of cash dividends paid, an increase of 9% year-over-year; and $1.3 billion in share repurchases. Turning to 3G/4G devices. The trends were strong in fiscal 2017 with estimated global 3G/4G device sales growing at a mid-single digit percentage year-over-year, consistent with prior expectations. Underpinning this growth was a flat ASP for global 3G/4G devices versus fiscal 2016 despite some FX headwinds. For calendar year 2017, we continue to forecast approximately 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion 3G/4G device shipments, which projects growth of approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint, consistent with our prior estimates. In QCT, we saw strong performance in fiscal 2017 with 52% year-over-year growth in earnings before tax dollars and EBT margin expansion of approximately 500 basis points to 17%. The business delivered these strong results despite the full year impact of the second source decision at Apple. Three elements were the key drivers of the strength in QCT. First, we had a strong year-over-year growth in MSM shipments to OEMs based in China. Second, QCT revenues from adjacent areas, which includes auto, IoT, networking and mobile compute, grew more than 25% year-over-year and now provide revenues of just over $3 billion. Finally, QCT results also benefited from seven months of our RF360 joint venture, which closed in February; a very strong year overall for QCT. In QTL, results in fiscal 2017 were impacted by the disputes with Apple and another licensee, primarily in the second half of the year, as well as by the increased cost of litigation and spending on brand defense. Absent these disputes, we believe revenue would've shown healthy year-over-year growth, in line with the strength of the underlying markets. Let's now turn to our financial outlook for the first fiscal quarter of 2018. We estimate fiscal first quarter revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion, roughly flat sequentially at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $0.85 to $0.95 per share, down 2% sequentially at the midpoint. We anticipate first quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be down approximately 1% to 3% sequentially, on both seasonal and operating cost savings. In QTL, we expect revenues of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter, approximately flat sequentially at the midpoint. We expect fiscal first quarter QTL EBT margin to be approximately 68% to 72%, flat to slightly up sequentially. In QCT, we expect approximately 220 million to 240 million MSM chip shipments for the fiscal first quarter, up 5% sequentially at the midpoint, reflecting typical seasonality trend and strength in our product portfolio. There's potential upside to these estimates on indications of a possible build ahead on a customer's flagship launch. We expect QCT's fiscal first quarter EBT margin to be approximately 18% to 20%, down slightly sequentially on product mix. As a reminder, the fiscal first quarter is the seasonally strong fourth quarter for QCT and we expect the fiscal second quarter to reflect normal seasonal trends with lower demand for units impacting margins. We estimate our non-GAAP fiscal first quarter 2018 tax rate to be approximately 7%, reflecting the lower mix of licensing revenues in our business at this time. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $60 million to $75 million in the fiscal first quarter. Net expense is up nearly $175 million on the effects of lower realized gains on sales of marketable securities and lower investment returns now that we have substantially completed the liquidation of our longer term investment portfolio and our holding assets in short-term liquid investments. Turning to 2018. Consistent with last year, we're providing selective guidance points for the year. For calendar year 2018, 3G/4G device shipments, we are estimating approximately 1.9 billion to 2 billion units, up approximately 8% at the midpoint, reflecting strong growth of 3G/4G handsets in India and other emerging regions, as well as above-average growth in 3G/4G non-handsets, primarily in IoT. In fiscal 2018, we expect mid-single digit percentage growth in global 3G/4G device sales year-over-year, and estimate that the global 3G/4G device ASP will decline at a low-single digit percentage year-over-year, primarily from strong unit growth in the non-handset category at lower ASPs. This includes our estimate that global 3G/4G handset ASPs will be roughly flat year-over-year with continued ASP growth for Chinese OEMs (18:33) premium tier handsets, offset by increasing shipments into lower ASP emerging regions. We estimate our full year non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 7%, lower versus fiscal 2016, reflecting a full year assumed impact of lower licensing revenues resulting from the licensing disputes with Apple and the other licensee. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Tal Liani from Bank of America, please go ahead with your question. And, Tal Liani, your line is open. There is no response from that line. And Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity, please go ahead with your question.
Matthew D. Ramsay - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
This is Matt Ramsay on for the team and Mike. Steve, you might have seen there has been some sort of questions about the position of your chipset business with premium tier OEMs going forward. And it occurred to us that with 5G trials coming online and lots of work being done both with carriers and with those premium OEMs as the industry moves toward 5G, you guys might be well-positioned to retain and maybe even expand some of those positions. So maybe you could talk a little bit about the competitive position of your QCT business for 5G and the engagements that you have on the OEM and with the carriers as we move forward in those trials? Thank you.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Mike (sic) [Matt] (20:39), it's Steve. I didn't hear the front part of that. And also, it's kind of hard for me to talk about rumors or any particular, let's say, media report. I will say that our road map and the positioning of, in particular, our modem road map, we feel very good about. Not only the ones that are already launched, but if you look at the upgrades that are going to occur to LTE upstream of 5G and then when you get to 5G, I think we're going to be – we feel very good about that positioning. We can go into that in some detail. But I would say, the overall sense of the competitive dynamic, we feel quite good about.
Matthew D. Ramsay - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
James Faucette from Morgan Stanley, please go ahead with your question.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you very much. Wanted to ask quickly on the NXPI process. I think, Steve indicated that you're making good progress with the regulators even though that deal might slip into next year. How are you feeling about your part of the process, et cetera, and whether if you feel like you're on the same page with regulators as to the things they may need to ask for? And then, my second question is, in the past you've talked about a non-Apple licensee that there were some collection issues with. Can you give us an update on any progress there? Thank you.
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
James, this is Don Rosenberg. I'll take the first part of that. On the regulators, we are, as we said before, working with the rest of the regulators that haven't yet cleared. As you recall, we have five regulators who have cleared already. We are deeply engaged with the others and we are making progress. It's a little slower than we'd like to make, but that's more the process than anything else. And we are feeling good about our engagement and that we were going to get to the end as quickly as we can with them.
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
James, this is Alex. On the other part of your question regarding the non-Apple licensee, the short answer is we're still in negotiations with that licensee. Other than that there's really no other news.
Operator:
Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research, please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. For my first question, I wanted to ask about the licensing results and the guidance. I know last quarter there had been some, I think you've characterized it as substantial catch-up in the quarter and that was the reason for the flat guide on revenues into Q4. Was there any catch-up or anything unusual or otherwise one-time that impacted either the Q4 licensing results or the Q1 guidance? And if so, what was it?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. Stacy, this is George. The Q4 results had a very small amount of, what I would call, out-of-period or catch-up dollars in it. So no material effect. Really, the improvement was driven by the strength of the market relative to our expectations in the guide. If you look at our Q1 guide, I would say we probably would be up a little bit more if we had out-of-period amounts similar to what we had in Q4. So it's having a little bit of impact Q4 to Q1, but we're still showing the strong guide.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you. For my second question, I wanted to ask a little bit about the linkages or lack thereof between the various disputes. I know, again, on the last earnings call, I think, Derek had made some statements that sort of essentially dismissed any linkage or contagion worries. Your attorneys in court told Judge Curiel the opposite, and I think the injunction was denied partially on the basis of that discrepancy. Can you give us a little more color, like which one of those statements is more valid in terms of the linkage between Apple and any of the other disagreements that seem to be developing at this point? And how can investors kind of get a little more comfort that going forward the disputes that exist as they are today don't continue to give rise to more?
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Stacy, I'll take the first part of it. It's Don. First of all, there is really no contradiction to be cleared between our arguments in court and statements that, as you indicate, Derek and others made. And I think we'll get into the second part of your question in a minute. What we argued in court, under the court standard, which as we've said is a very strict standard, which is very hard to meet in the context of a contract case. We thought we had a pretty strong argument. And, unfortunately, the judge didn't ultimately agree with that. But the court arguments were not inconsistent with what we've said. If you're thinking about the notion of irreparable harm versus, as you describe it, kind of linkage to others, it's a different concept. And I think we were pretty clear in how we argued that position.
Operator:
Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets, please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. Maybe just two, if I could as well. I guess, it seems like you didn't give out the standard. You gave the industry view of units and ASP. I'm just curious if we can get any color on kind of what was paying it and what was paying units ASPs implied royalty rate in the quarter. And is that, going forward, going to not be given or is that just because of the disputes? And then, separately, be interested to hear on the chip business. Obviously, doing great with the Chinese OEMs and the adjacencies. Just any color you can give us on what the mix of those businesses would mean to the margin profile of that business. Margins seem to be going up with them, so is that a trend that we should expect to continue? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Tim. It's George. On the TRDS, we took a look at whether or not once we had the two disputes, whether the TRDS number that we used to give out really had any information in it. And we felt it was actually just confusing and we find ourselves reconciling a bunch of numbers. So we went straight from Point A to Point B and just guided revenue, which we think gives a lot of visibility into what we think is happening in the business. We do think the underlying trends are actually quite strong. And you're seeing the benefit of that both in growth of the licensable market even if we're not fully participating in it. We've seen good growth in device sales globally. And it's being driven by strong ASPs, which is also having a positive impact in the mix and the performance of the company, where we're very well-positioned in the markets where we're seeing the largest impact and, in particular, China. So I think we're sensitive to your concern. And if we can find a way to get out more information that is actually helpful and gives insight into the business on TRDS, we will. But in the meantime, we feel like guiding revenue is perhaps the best alternative.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Maybe, Cristiano, you want to start off on the adjacents and I can jump in if you want.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Tim. This is Cristiano. You had a question on China and adjacencies. China has been a good story for us. I think China is the world's most competitive market, and our product road map has done well for us in China. We remain confident in maintaining our position there as a market leader. And the trends have been very good. We saw, in China, when we look at fiscal 2017, we saw 25% year-over-year growth in our China business. When we think about that market going forward, we saw good transitions on modem technologies to 4G+. And I think a lot of the activity towards an early 5G in China as well is positive for us. One other comment to note, just a commentary on China. One of the data points in 2017 was consistent with the trends we have talked over the year. We start to see an increase in exports of the Chinese OEMs as they become a larger percent of the global market. And the adjacent business, we saw growth across multiple segments, automotive, IoT, networking. And we can leverage mobile technology, so they have been providing a good margin story for QCT.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank, please go ahead with your question.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, guys, Thanks for letting me ask a question. The first one is on the Apple litigation. It seems like whether it's in press reports mainly or otherwise, that it's escalating, not actually getting closer to resolution. So maybe, Don, if you could provide us a timeline in the upcoming court cases if we're going to come to the conclusion that this probably will be decided in the courts or at least have to get a lot closer to these court cases before any resolution comes to pass?
Donald J. Rosenberg - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes, it's Don. It's important to keep in mind that litigation of this size and magnitude takes a while, and you can't focus on any particular event in the short-term. As you know, there are multiple cases that have been brought by Apple and multiple cases that have been brought by us, and we're going through a process. There'll be some motion practice; there'll be some discovery disputes. But that process is going to proceed under the court's schedule. I would say that, as you know, we brought a couple of patent cases against Apple in the ITC and district court here in the United States, in Germany, and in China. And those tend to move a little faster in the ITC, Germany and China, than litigation generally. And so, I would say that those will be on somewhat faster track, including potentially Germany by some time mid to end of 2018. And China, too, we expect to be on a fairly fast track. And as you know, the ITC action will move forward rather quickly. But until then, I don't think you're going to see much that's going to be of any particular consequence in terms of the ultimate outcome. And it'll play out the way a lot of this kind of complex litigation plays out generally.
Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I think as a quick follow-up on that litigation side of things. The unnamed dispute that you have, seems like that's been coming up on a year's time. I know you're still in negotiations. You're not really going to comment on the name of the party, et cetera. But is that duration typical for one year? And what's the trigger point that changes it from an informal to a formal dispute where we can get more information?
Alexander Rogers - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
This is Alex. So it's a fairly lengthy discussion, but I don't think that that's atypical. There are a lot of issues involved to work the way through. I think when it changes over to some formal litigation, obviously, that's when we'll go ahead and disclose that.
Operator:
David Wong from Wells Fargo, please go ahead with your question.
David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks very much. Following up from the earlier question, we can see what's happening between you and Apple publicly in terms of the filings and the counter filings. But can you give us any feel as to whether there is direct dialogue between you and Apple outside of what we can see publicly?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, this is Steve. I would echo what Don said earlier. It's very difficult to look at any one particular data point, whether it's true or not and kind of come to a conclusion. I think it's also important for investors to understand, we really try to compartmentalize our engagement with Apple. We have a product engagement and we have a dispute over, really, the price of IP. And I think if you net that all together, we do have a lot of engagement with the company and we do speak and are engaged on a daily basis with them across multiple areas that I've mentioned. But we try to compartmentalize those two discussions. And as I've said many times before, I think there are a lot of levers between the company to figure out things. I just think we're not at a point where we're announcing anything different, and I think we want to be upfront that this could take some time to resolve. But we're working very hard on the product side to make sure that we continue to be a good supplier and a good showcase for our innovation products.
David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho, please go ahead with your question.
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Just one thing on NXPI. Do you still expect it to close in the year, in 2017?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. We've said that we're still working towards closing in the year. But, clearly, we have some activities going on at regulators that are taking a bit longer than we thought. So we could see it slip into early 2018, but we're confident it's on track to close and are still working to close it in the year.
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Got it. And on the second IT litigation, I know you guys haven't given a lot of color there. But do you expect it to get resolved at the same time as the Apple IP? Or do you think that's more of a mutual discussion that you're having outside court, and so that should see a faster resolution there? Thanks.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. The second licensee, the facts and circumstances around that actually started before the other dispute and have issues that are unique to that licensee. And that will go play at its own pace and will be unrelated to – unless it's coincidentally resolved at the same time as the Apple dispute.
Operator:
Chris Danely with Citigroup, please go ahead with your question.
Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Thanks, guys. I guess, another question on NXP, why not? So if we get through all the approvals, but the tender doesn't go through or is rejected, can you talk about what would cause you to walk away versus just raise the price? What would be the circumstances there?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. Right now, we're really just focused on the regulatory close. We think $110 is a very full price. And I think as you saw on NXP's earnings release, the management team there is also reinforcing that $110 is an attractive price for their stockholders as well. So, right now, we'll stay focused on just getting this thing to the finish line.
Christopher Brett Danely - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet, please go ahead with your question.
Unknown Speaker:
Hi. This is Kristen Sharp in (36:53) for Romit. Thanks for taking my question. I apologize if this was asked earlier in the call, I'm juggling two concurrent calls right now. But going to QCT operating margins, I know you did very well in this quarter on that. Can you give any directional, I guess, guidance as for the trajectory for fiscal 2018 for operating margins in QCT?
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
We are not putting out full year guidance, but we did give an indication of Q1, which again continues the strength in margins in QCT. 2017 was a very, very strong year. You saw EBT up over 50% and six straight quarters of margin expansion. So we think that the fundamentals of strong markets, strong products, growth in the adjacencies, are all factors that will continue into 2018 and help margins.
Operator:
Brett Simpson with Arete Research, please go ahead with your question.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Yes. Thanks very much. Just a question on the business structure at Qualcomm. I mean, when you consider the antitrust that's underway with regulators and the litigation with Apple now that's impacting your chip market share and the issues with your other licensee, can you perhaps talk about the benefits that QTL, being combined with QCT, particularly after you close NXP, to become much more diversified chip business. What's the real benefit, do you think, of having the combined businesses there together? And is there scope for a fresh review into a potential split between QTL and the enlarged QTC?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Brett, hi, it's Steve. I would say it's something that we look at all the time. We have, as you know, over the course of the company's history, looked at this in I think a formal way a number of times. But it's something that we always look at. And, however, I think I would just remind folks that we're now sitting here – if you look at what most people are working on in the company, we're trying to drive 5G and we're very excited about that. And I think that's good for both businesses and it's something that we think is going to have a long-term payoff for the company. And I think as you could tell from our actions, we really view the ability to drive both innovation ahead of the market and have a channel to move that into the market is very important. So that continues to be something we think contributes to long-term growth, but it's also an area or it's a topic that we look at all the time to make sure that we are driving shareholder value as best we can. But nothing really to talk about here other than, I would say, the primary focus on driving 5G and what that means really to our business structure is very important at the moment for us.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
And maybe just a quick follow-up for George. In the QTL business, you booked $95 million of additional revenue in non-GAAP for QTL for licensing that wasn't in GAAP sales. Can you perhaps just talk about that and give us a sense for why QCT margins are falling sequentially at 18% midpoint for December quarter? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yes. We had a dispute settlement. And because the dispute settlement was with a customer, it has to be taken as counter revenue. So that was the difference between the GAAP and the non-GAAP revenue.
Operator:
John Pitzer from Credit Suisse, please go ahead with your question.
John William Pitzer - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Yes. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for letting me ask the question. Steve, just on the 5G front, you've been perhaps a little bit more aggressive than some others in the ecosystem talking about timeline. And, clearly, trials are coming up and you guys will have to be an integral part of those trials. I'm just kind of curious, how do you think about the timeline for 5G to be meaningful volume to the chipset business? And, I guess, equally important, to the extent that that might be 2020 or beyond, what can you do around the feature set and/or cost in 4G to kind of keep or maintain or even widen perhaps sort of (41:19) your dominant lead there?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Okay. I'll give you my perspective on it, which I think is, we're already in the position in the industry where the impact of 5G coming in 2019 is impacting the feature set even in 4G. So if you look at 4G, the push to Gigabit LTE – and actually there's even another update before we get to 5G that you'll see roll out into the networks. So I would say, we're already in the early stages where it's very important to have that road map, not only to deliver products into 2019, but I think to be meaningful in the networks that lead up to that 2019 transition. And so, if you're getting the sense that we are more aggressively pushing 5G and the higher tier feature set of 4G, I think that will be an accurate read. I would also say that it's not just us, our OEM customers and, in particular, I would say leading tier, high tier Android OEMs are taking that modem feature set aggressively as well. So we think that's a good strategic position to be in. We are driving it hard. And I think we're all going to be pleased with the initial ramps and the speed by which people are going to go to 5G, and we're certainly going to try to make that happen.
John William Pitzer - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
That concludes today's answer-and-question session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Well, thank you. I just wanted to again thank the Qualcomm employees for a very strong year of execution and, in particular, I would say the broad-based delivery of products and earnings growth in QCT. Thanks a lot, folks. Appreciate it very much. Looking forward to driving 5G and a strong 2018. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Sinnott - Vice President, Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer Derek Aberle – President George Davis - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Cristiano Amon - Executive Vice President, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. and President of Qualcomm CDMA Technologies Don Rosenberg - Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Rod Hall - JPMorgan Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Doug Clark - Goldman Sachs James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Vijay Rakesh - Mizuho Romit Shah - Nomura Instinet Tavis McCourt - Raymond James
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm's Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 19, 2017. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 38395118. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John Sinnott:
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our investor relations website. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, or industry trends, or our business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, the comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to first take a few minutes to discuss the performance of the company both in the quarter and against our longer term goals before providing my perspective on the legal and regulatory matters impacting the company. I'm very pleased that in the time of these external challenges our employees are executing well on our expansion into new opportunities and at the same time improving the competitive strength and profitability of our industry leading product. We reported fiscal third quarter non-GAAP earnings per share and revenues consistent with our revised guidance and above the guidance range midpoint driven by better than expected product mix in our semiconductor business. Our QCT business is executing very well with profitability up both sequentially and year-over-year. QCT has now delivered improved year-over-year quarterly profitability for five consecutive quarters on the strong execution, as we have continued to refresh our product roadmap, delivered improved product cost and grow EBT margins despite the impact of second sourcing at Apple over this same time period. In Mobile, QCT continues to see strength in the highly competitive China region and is executing well across all price gears. Our gigabit LTE and 5G leadership combined with our Snapdragon 835 and new Snapdragon 600 product are well ahead of our competitive solutions. We continue to see good traction in our QCT adjacent opportunities of automotive, networking, mobile compute and IoT, where our efforts deliver, our technologies are gaining momentum. We saw a strong revenue growth in those adjacent businesses in fiscal 2016 and forecast growth of more than 25% in fiscal 2017. As reflected in our fourth quarter MSM guidance, we expect QCT's strong performance to continue. We are ramping investments necessary to extend our leadership position in 5G as operators and customers seek to accelerate their launch date. We now believe that both millimeter ways and sub-6 gigahertz capability will be table stakes for 2019 5G launches. The modem technology and complexity is increasing and we believe we can continue to outperform our competitors with our level of 5G innovation. It is clear that our technology position and product roadmap are strong as they have ever been. In addition, we believe the pending NXP acquisition will provide us greater scale in automotive IoT security and networking with their highly complementary product and world class sales channel, serving the long tale of customers that are driving growth. The combined company will be a technology and semiconductor leader with future annual revenues projected to be more than $30 billion. The NXP transaction remains on track to close by the end of calendar 2017. We have regulatory clearance in four jurisdictions including here in the U.S. and Taiwan and we continue to make progress in our work with regulators in five remaining regions. In QTL, third quarter results and fourth fiscal quarter guidance reflect the impact of our dispute with Apple and the licensee dispute that we disclosed last quarter. Despite the near term financial impact to our business by the actions of a small number of powerful industry players, the long-term outlook for our licensing business continues to remain strong. With more than 300 freely negotiated global license agreements and a technology portfolio that is fundamental to the performance of wireless and mobile computing devices today and for many years to come. The licensing business will continue to be a significant revenue and profitability generator for the company longer term. Moreover it is important to remember that 3G, 4G device trends which are a key driver of QTL financial performance remain very healthy. We are forecasting 3G, 4G device shipments to grow by approximately 6% in calendar 2017. The long-term growth outlook for units combined with moderating ASP decline, are consistent with our prior expectations for longer term globally 3G, 4G device sales growth. Turning to the current legal matter, we believe we hold the high ground with regard to the dispute with Apple. We will take the actions that are needed and appropriately defend the tremendous value that our innovations bring to this industry, innovations which enable a competitive ecosystem to thrive. You have now seen some of the steps we have taken in our dispute with Apple, including the filing of patented actions in the U.S. ITC and in U.S. and Germany court to address the use of our unlicensed IP in their devices. We do not take these challenges lightly and we are focused on achieving the right long-term results for the licensing business, which also is in the best interest of our stockholders. We know that fundamentally these issues are driven by commercial interests and contract negotiations and we will continue to work to reach resolutions as we have done in the past. As you know, we have a strong relationship with Apple for many years and they have been a long standing and valued customer. We intend to continue to provide them with our industry leading products and technologies as we always have and do our best to remain a good supplier to Apple even while this dispute continues. Derek will provide further detail on the actions we have taken in connection with our dispute with Apple as well as the specific steps we have taken in the other matters to defend the value of our innovations and our business model. Looking ahead, our innovations driven by decades our R&D investments are at the forefront of multiple new industries and product categories. Our intellectual property as never been more valuable and relevant and opportunities ahead for Qualcomm have never been greater. Our breadth of technologies and products continues to benefit from our ongoing strategy to invest ahead of the industry and combined with our global scale and partnerships, we are extremely well positioned to grow into an expanding step of new opportunity. Further with the pending NXP acquisition we will further accelerate our move into these exciting industries. I will now turn the call over to Derek.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon, everyone. QTL fiscal third quarter revenues were $1.2 billion with earnings before tax as $854 million. As Steve mentioned, QTL fiscal third quarter results reflect non-payment of royalties on Apple products by Apple's contract manufacturers, as well as the non-payment of royalties by the licensee with which we have a dispute that was disclosed last quarter. During the fiscal second quarter, the licensee reported and paid only a portion of the royalties it owed under its license agreement and at that time, we expected the licensee to continue to report and pay sum, but not all of the royalties they owe for the fiscal third quarter. Although, we remain in discussions with this licensee in an effort to resolve the dispute, the licensee did not report or pay any royalties during the fiscal third quarter. This is a dispute as per the terms of the licensee's existing agreement that is similar to a number of the ones we have resolved in the past and we expect to be able to do that again here. With Apple's contract manufacturers refusing to fully report their total reported device sales for Apple products and the licensee with which we have a dispute also with holding reporting, we are not providing quarterly actuals or guidance for total reported device sales and related unit shipments and ASPs by our licensee. Because the significant portion of quarterly activity is not available and would not be included in those metric, making them incomplete in a limited value. We are however, providing quarterly QTL revenue guidance to help our investors model our expectations for the licensing business going forward. Despite the near term impact of these items, which we believe we will be able to resolve over time to QTL financial performance it is important to note that 3G, 4G global sales and device trends remain very positive. For fiscal 2017, global 3G, 4G handset ASPs continue to track consistent with our prior expectations of low single digit percentage declines year-over-year. Global ASP trends continue to be strong this year with ASPs continuing to increase in China and for devices sold by Chinese OEMs globally. We also continue to see healthy growth in global device sales for the fiscal year, consistent with our longer term growth expectations of mid-single digit annual percentage increases. For calendar 2017 3G, 4G device shipments, we continue to estimate shipment of 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices globally, up approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. Our licensing and compliance initiatives remain on track and continue to bear fruit. Excluding the effect of the underreporting caused by the disputes with Apple and its contract manufacturers as well as the licensee I just described which we do not view as compliance issue. We estimate that the level of compliance by our licensees were sales during the March was in line with sales by our licensees during the December quarter. As you have seen from our recent announcements, we continue to actively pursue resolutions of the challenges to our licensing business that have been orchestrated by a few of the most profitable and powerful companies in the world. And to defend a well-established value of our patented technologies in the regulatory and other legal matters in which we are involved. And our appeal of the Korean FTC decision hearings were held last week in the Seoul High Court on our motion to say that remedial portion of the KFTC's order while we proceed with the appeal. We expect to get a decision on the request per se in the coming month. The U.S. FTC lawsuit is on track to be tried at the beginning of 2019. We look forward to demonstrating that many of the facts are wedged in the complaint are wrong. And the FTC's legal theories are without merit. As to the Taiwan FTC investigations, we continue to work to find a resolution and we are continuing to cooperate with the TFTC. We also continue to work through additional investigations in Europe. However, those investigations do not target Qualcomm's licensing business or practices. Finally as Steve mentioned, we have now filed patent infringement complaints against Apple with both the International Trade Commission and in Federal Court in the US. The six patents are assorted in those actions enable high performance in a variety of areas of the smartphone while extending battery life. Each of the patents does so in a different way for different popular smartphone features. While the technologies covered by the patents are central for the performance of the iPhone including internal performance, graphics, higher data rates and network capacity, flashless boot and power management. The assorted patents are not essential to practice any standards in a mobile device or subject to a commitment to offer to license those patents. We expect that the ITC investigation will commence in August and that the case will be tried next year. We expect the Federal Court case to trail the ITC action will be stayed pending the conclusion of the ITC act. This week we also filed two patent infringement lawsuits in Germany against the Apple seeking damages and injunctive relief for iPhones imported into or sold in Germany. The patents we are asserting in these cases represent two technologies important to iPhone functions. But again they are not standard essential patent and are not subject to end commitments to license those patent. Similar to the ITC process here in the US, we expect this litigation in Germany will move on a fairly fast timeline with an outcome likely in approximately 12 months. In addition, we have filed a motion asking the Federal Court in San Diego to require Apple's contract manufacturers to comply with the terms of their license agreement with respect to Apple product, while the various cases are heard. Before it instructed its contract manufacturers to stop paying royalties to Qualcomm, Apple had been indirectly paying royalties on its products based on the contract manufacturer agreement for 10 years. Nothing has changed Apple continues to generate substantial profit by using our technology in the contract manufacturer agreement remain valid. There will be a hearing on that motion in mid-August. Yesterday, Apple's contract manufacturers responded to our claims against them and the motion I just described. In addition Apple start to oppose our motion in the contract manufacturer cases, as well as to consolidate the contract manufacturer cases with the Apple cases. These filings by Apple and its contract manufacturers prove what we have been saying all along. Apple has interfered with our license agreement with its contract manufacturers by instructing them not to pay the royalties they owe for sales of apple product and then agreed to indemnify and protect the contract manufacturers against any damages and payments they would owe to Qualcomm as a result of Apple instructing them to breach their license agreement. It is clear that Apple is controlling all of the contract manufacturers’ statement and actions in the litigation. If Apple hadn't interfered with the licenses and instructed the contract manufacturers to take these actions, the contract manufacturers would not be contesting the licenses now. It is important to remember that in most cases our license agreements were negotiated and entered into with the contract manufacturers before Apple ever entered the smartphone market. And then Apple decided to rely on them for a decade, before now trying to disrupt them. One of Apple's claims has been that this is just a dispute about how much they should pay for using our valuable intellectual property and that they have stopped paying because, they don't know how much to pay us. This is quite obviously wrong. As I just explained the long standing and valid contract manufacturer licenses clearly specify the royalties that are due and payable on Apple products, yet Apple is interfering with those contracts. Further, we have made several offers to Apple to have an independent third-party result of parties best agreement over the value of Qualcomm's technology and set the royalty terms of a direct license between Qualcomm and Apple once in for all. Apple has refused those offers each time, which shows they are more interested in pursuing the strategy the way rather than good paid resolution. We will continue to vigorously defend the value of our innovation and our pro-competitive business model. Turning to our datacenter business, we remain on track for commercial shipments of the Qualcomm Centriq 2400 processor family by the end of the calendar year and we have already shipped more than 1000 evaluation platforms to leading customers and partners. We continue to be very encouraged by the engagement with and feedback from a variety of our growing list of customers and partners as to the performance of our product. In parallel, we are working hard to continue to build the datacenter ecosystem for Centriq-based server. This quarter we announced the collaboration with Packet a leading bare metal cloud provider to deliver a consumable cloud platform based on the Qualcomm Centriq 2400 processor for access by the software development community. We demonstrated with Canonical a highly scalable OpenStack NFV infrastructure running on a Qualcomm Centriq 2400 platform. And we announced the collaboration with MariaDB to implement MariaDB's enterprise grade, database architecture on the Qualcomm Centriq 2400 processor to drive performance and compute that scale. That concludes my comments. And I will now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report a solid fiscal third quarter consistent with our revised expectations. Revenues were $5.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.83. Our results were above the midpoint of guidance driven by better than expected QCT results on higher revenue and stronger margins. QCT EBT margin was 14.2% for the quarter at the high-end of expectations driven by favorable mobile product mix. We are continuing to see strong traction in QCT adjacent opportunities with quarterly revenues from these areas in total up approximately 30% year-over-year. As a reminder our adjacent opportunities include our chip sales into automotive IoT networking and compute. In QCT MSM shipments were 187 million up 4% sequentially and modestly below the midpoint of our expectations, on softness in mid and low tier devices. In QTL, revenues were $1.2 billion largely in line with expectations. Consistent with our revised guidance, the quarter was negatively impacted by our dispute with Apple, as they instructed their contract manufacturers to not fully report and to not pay royalties due on sales of Apple products. In addition, we did not report QTL revenues from the ongoing dispute with the licensee that we disclosed last quarter, as that entity did not report or pay royalties this quarter. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses overall this quarter were up 6% sequentially, which was above our prior guidance of up 3% at the midpoint. Our prior guidance reflected the impact of a full quarter of the RF360 joint venture spending being included in our results. The increase in spend relative to our original expectations was driven by higher than expected litigation expenses, as actions related to our dispute with Apple escalated and from accelerating investment related to pending 5G trials and related technology development. We believe these priorities are critical for value creation and preservation, but are contributing to higher than model spending in the near-term, which we will address as we get through this period. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 5%, reflecting the prior period impact of our revised April guidance of a full year non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 14%. As a reminder, our effective tax rate is influenced by the mix of onshore and offshore earnings. The result of a lower mix of licensing revenues which are onshore impacts that a full U.S. rate is a reduction to our overall blended tax rate. Turning to our balance sheet, in May we issued $11 billion of debt in the capital market. The funds from this offering will be used to finance a portion of our proposed acquisition of NXP and for general corporate purposes. With this financing, we have now completed our prefunding for the NXP transaction. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $38 billion and total debt outstanding of $22 billion. Our non-GAAP operating cash flow in the fiscal third quarter, which excludes the impact of the KFTC fine and the BlackBerry arbitration was approximately $2 billion or 39% of non-GAAP revenue. As a reminder, while a charge related to the KFTC fine was recorded on our income statement in our fiscal first quarter and the charge related to the BlackBerry arbitration was recorded in our fiscal second quarter. The related cash payments for both were made in our fiscal third quarter. Through our fiscal third quarter, we have returned approximately $3.4 billion to stockholders this fiscal year, including $2.4 billion in dividends paid and $1 billion in share repurchases. This is consistent with our continued commitment to the dividend program and dividend growth and our intent to repurchase shares to offset dilution. Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter guidance, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion down approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. Our revenue and EPS estimates exclude QTL revenues for Apple related products and for the other licensee in dispute. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal fourth quarter to be approximately $0.75 to $0.85 per share. We expect fiscal fourth quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be approximately 1% to 3% sequentially driven primarily by increased litigation related expenses and 5G investment. As Derek explained, we are providing guidance for QTL's segment revenues for the fiscal fourth quarter, which we expect to be in the range of $1.0 billion to $1.3 billion. We expect QTL's EBT margin percentage to decrease sequentially and be between 64% and 68% reflecting lower revenues at the midpoint and increase litigation related expenses as we continue to defend our business model in various forms. Turning to QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments in the fiscal fourth quarter of approximately 205 million to 225 million units up 15% sequentially at the midpoint driven by OEM product launches and continued traction with OEMs in China. We expect QCT EBT margin to be approximately 17% to 19% in the fiscal fourth quarter increasing from 16.7% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016 favorable mobile product mix and growth in adjacent opportunities year-over-year. For our Snapdragon 835 premium tier chipset, we expect to supply of 10 nanometer to largely meet demand in the fiscal fourth quarter consistent with our prior expectations. We expect that interest expense will be up sequentially in the fiscal fourth quarter reflecting a full quarter's impact related to the $11 billion of debt issued in late May. For fiscal 2017 overall, we now expect the combination of investment and other income and interest expense to be roughly flat versus fiscal 2016. Lower interest income year-over-year has been supplemented with gains on the sale of higher risk assets in our portfolio, as we move into highly liquid short-term investments in preparation for funding the NXP acquisition. That concludes my comments and I'll now turn the call back to John.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Mike Walkley:
Thank you very much. Just really trying to get a clarification, so for the licensing dispute outside of Apple, can you just walk us through what from that licensee maybe was included in your Q3 results and what's excluded for Q4 guidance maybe you can help us on a sequential basis, just on that licensee maybe in ballpark that dealt between Q3 and Q4? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Hey Mike, this is Derek. So, I think when we reported last quarter, we had some amount of revenue from that licensee in Q2, but it was an underpayment, they didn't pay the full amount. And we at that time had expected Q3 to include an underpayment, but include some payment. And basically the way things turned out, they did not report or pay anything for Q3 and that's consistent with the way that we have guided for Q4. So, basically both of the quarters exclude any revenue from the licensee that's in dispute.
George Davis:
Mike, hi it's George. Let me just add to that, I think one of the things that we've seen people struggle with is, the - there is no constant since this is an individual OEM. So in Q2 going to Q3 is typically a step down in the level of revenues and then you have a seasonal uptick picking up for Q3 and Q4. So, I think it’s going to be hard to model a flat level of impact. And so it's one of the reasons why in the guidance for this quarter we guided QTL revenue overall, because we understand using the old method of trying to get their TRDS's can be too difficult.
Operator:
Our next question is from Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Rod Hall:
Yes great, thanks guys. I guess, I had one clarification and one question. So, I wanted to on that last question with regards to this licensee, it looks like, I mean are detailed your guidance deviating another 100 million from what we were forecasting and even though I get that you guys don't want us forecasting or it’s hard to forecast using your methodologies most of our models to run that way. So, I'm just wondering, can you give us any idea whether the full with holding us payments from that licensee is in the ballpark of say $250 million or something like that? Just so we can think about what the deviation from our model looking forward might be? And then, the real question I've got is on the European review NXPI that's moved a full review, can you, Derek could you just give us any color on what is happening there, why reportedly anyway you guys have not decided not to go along with remedies that have been suggested and now we are into a more detailed review, was that always the expectation in Europe or has something changed in regards to your discussions with the regulators there. So could you just give us a little bit more color on what's happening there? Thanks.
George Davis:
So hey Rod, let me comment. I think one of the things I would remind people as they look at particularly the year-over-year comparisons for the licensing business, both in Q3 and Q4 comparatively. We saw good market underlying market in both of those, so there is no the - any shortfall in your estimates are not really related to the market. What we saw is there was catch up from the settlement of Chinese agreement in Q3 and Q4 of 16 that are impacting year-over-year comparisons. And so, one of the things that the models would need to show is the lower catch up in Q1 or should be in Q4 up 17 relative to 16. And then the rest is really just Apple and the other licensee and the impact of the specific dollars related to those OEMs. But those are really the only factors impacting the underlying estimate.
Derek Aberle:
Hey Rod, this is Derek, let me just add that, our practice historically has been not to disclose the identity of licensees when we're trying to resolve dispute and it hasn't yet gone to litigation. And so, we're going to go ahead and stick to that practice and so, we're not going to give specific color on the amount of underpayment coming from any particular licensee. I think one of things just to think about in terms of volume, we have had catch up payment kind of flowing through QTL from prior period sort of quarter-to-quarter, we said that's going to be lumpy and will be hard to predict in coming over time. And there were some those amounts, meaningful amounts in Q3,but I would say the midpoint of our -- QTL revenue in Q4 doesn't really include a significant amount of that so, that maybe another kind of deviation when you look into your model.
Don Rosenberg:
And Rod, this is Don. I'll take your question about NXP in Europe. There is not a lot to say about that at all, but phase I process as you know is fairly short. We're dealing with significant acquisition here in both with both the U.S-based company and a major European-based company. So it’s not surprising that we are moving into phase II, we are engaged in phase II, we will listen to any concerns that maybe expressed and we'll respond to them, we think within the time period that should be the normal run of phase II process. Obviously can't predict, but we're very optimistic about our ability to continue to demonstrate the complementary nature of this acquisition with four regulatory approvals already we think - we're on a pretty good track there.
Rod Hall:
Great. Okay, thank you guys.
Operator:
Our next question is from Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha:
Thank you. My question is for Derek, well just on the dispute with the licensee, which is not, just to be clear not like a regular audit type which is a fundamental disagreement, on the both parties in terms of how the licensing agreement how that is being interpreted. So, this may come last for some time is that the right way of thinking about it? And the second question is, in a world in which the smartphone market in revenue terms is building up growing very much, I would say 2% or 3%, if Apple do gain meaningful market share in the next two years it's reasonable to assume that even this licensing run rate would contract or the other drivers that we should think about, can we just think there is obviously a super cycle coming up there and Apple getting a lot of share in the [complete process] [ph]? And based on your [Technical Difficulty] these are right way to thinking about it?
Derek Aberle:
Kulbinder, this is Derek. I think on the first one, I would characterize it this way, I mean we have -- the dispute we have with this licensee is a dispute over the terms of their agreement, not to just similar to ones that we've had in the past. They've resolved themselves in a variety of different ways historically, some of them, most of them frankly we've been able to resolve through some period of negotiation. We're still in that phase with this licensee and then you might recall back even just most recently with LG that did escalate even arbitration but, then we were able to resolve it fairly quickly even after the arbitration is to, was resolved. So, I don't think we can predict with any certainty that exact timing, but I don't think it's a full drawn conclusion that this will be something that takes a long time to resolve either. I think it’s highly dependent on the circumstances. I think you might have some, let me try to reframe kind of the second question, our view, I'll give you some data points to support this is that the license business has the ability to continue to grow with the end market. We see end market growth continuing going forward, once we have these disputes resolved, and, I think even if you look at this quarter, we would have seen year-over-year growth in licensing business that you adjusted for kind of all the anomalies of the disputes and some of the one-time payment. But, if you step back and look longer term at the end market, the units continue to grow in line with our projections last year, unit growth was about 10% in our current forecast, which were holding in calendar 2017 is about 6% unit growth, and you combine that with the moderating declines in ASPs and we still believe, the TRDS independent of any particular OEM. So even if Apple were to gain share is something that we'll grow in the mid-single digits. And I think the, the thing that's been very positive for us this year is that ASPs probably a moderating even the ASP declines are moderating even more than we expected meaning the declines are less than we would have expected going into the year. And that's largely being driven by strength in China as well as increasing ASPs by many of the Chinese OEMs as they build their businesses outside of China, which are couple of the important trends that we highlighted starting 2 or 3 years ago of why we believe we would see long term growth in the market. So again, if you wrap that all up end market will continue to grow, we think it can continue to grow meaningful. And we think once we get through these disputes we can continue to grow the licensing business in line with that.
Kulbinder Garcha:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs.
Doug Clark:
Thanks. This is Doug Clark on behalf of Simona. One follow-up question to kind of the historical context of disputes with some licensees, I mean putting all of those together is there any generalization or kind of role that you've come to notice as a result of the resolution of these disputes they've either resulted in kind of deflationary to the royalty rate or as in certain cases you've been able to hold those royalty rate constant. I want to know if there is kind of any conclusion that you've drawn from those.
Derek Aberle:
Doug, this is Derek. It's pretty hard to answer, in kind of at a high level. I think each individual deal is different, I would say through any of the negotiations and dispute resolutions we -- I think we've been successful historically and obtaining, what we believe is a fair value for the portfolio. Some of those deals have taken different forms and different structures over the years, but I think by enlarge, that sort of the principle that we operate by, it's the same principle that we operated by as we resolved the remaining agreements we negotiated in China over the last couple of years and it’s really the same principle that we'll be applying to our dispute with Apple as we look for trying to achieve the right long-term agreement for the company and consistent with the value of our intellectual property.
Doug Clark:
Okay. Got it. And then my follow up question is, as we move to kind of the key market product launches particularly upcoming iPhone, have any of the disputes in your opinion had any impact on how share will shakeout from a chipset standpoint?
Cristiano Amon:
Hi Doug, this is Cristiano. Look I think we had said, I think the things go back in time that we have planned for multi-sourcing. And I think at this time, I think what we see will continue to be engaged with them on the product side, we feel very confident about, I think the capability of the product, I would argue that generation-to-generation our differentiation is actually increasing. And right now we see continue to receive orders from the CMs. So, I don't think we can at this point identify anything different than what we have been expecting.
Doug Clark:
Got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from James Faucette from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James Faucette:
Great. Thank you very much. Firstly Don, I know you touched on [Technical Difficulty] how since the NXPI acquisition was announced or the intension to acquire NXPI, how are your conversation with kind of these opportunity with [Technical Difficulty]? Thanks.
Don Rosenberg:
Hi, this is Don. So, on your NXP question to remind you there were nine jurisdictions originally that had to approve, we've -- as I said had four approved the U.S, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan, those that are left are the EU, China, Japan, South Korea and Philippine. We are proceeding in each case by engaging with the regulatory bodies and each to a restriction we are, we think on track in terms of following their processes and as we've indicated, Steve indicated earlier, we expect that the timeline as we've outlined it will continue and we're shooting for the end of 17. And I don't think there is really, there is really much to say about those other regulatory bodies other than that, as I said we're cooperating with them and haven't seen any issues at the moment.
Steve Mollenkopf:
James, this is Steve. I would say the discussions with the customers have been good, I mean obviously we have limitations, since that agreed to which we can have discussion given that we are pretty close. I've been pretty pleased with what we are hearing with respect to kind of the industrial logic behind the deal. So some of the -- the, I think the bringing together of the Qualcomm IP roadmap and technology roadmap to the channel of and the broader portfolio of products at auto has been, I think positively received by the customers as far as my discussions. And I think also the, importance of increasing the scale and the channel in the IoT spaces is definitely being validated in terms of our view of the market. And, I think also if you look at the last two quarters of the product business here for us, it really seems to be headed in the same direction, or headed in a way that is consistent with the industrial logic behind the acquisition, which is that, has things get connected, you're going to start to see more overlap in terms of the required technologies across these business. I think that's actually good for the end markets and we've been hearing comments consistent with that from the customer. So, we're planning for, actually planning for the integration and working through the regulatory issues and moving quickly before the closing at the end of the year, before the end of the year.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets.
Tim Long:
If we could maybe switch over to the chip business, George you mentioned in the guidance for MSMs next quarter some product launches and China strength, it's a little bit of more stronger than normal seasonal. So, could you talk a little bit about were, was inventory a little low heading in, China has been a pretty touch end market so far this year, so do you think there is going to be a turnaround in the business there, is there is market share, is it more exports. So maybe talk a little bit about that strength and maybe sustainability and then related to that, I would assume that we might be up for a little bit weaker of ASP calculated in that division in the September quarter? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi Tim, this is Cristiano. Look I think, it's probably important to understand the trends in China market. China has been a growth, strong story for us and I think we see that continuing. So, first your point about what we thought about the product mix, I think we see the market moving up and we see that consistently, we saw that, the ASP market matures, they pierced on the devices we see higher low freights in the higher tiers than in the lower tiers. And I think Snapdragon 600 and the Snapdragon 800 are doing very well; in particularly the Snapdragon 600 has been a very good story for us. When you ask about the going forward, I would maybe remind you we -- we've said in the past about things like Al Mode in caraggregation now 70% of every single device in China is Al Mode 4G plus is now well understood by consumer as a caraggregation. And we speak things, moving towards higher speeds both on our integrated WiFi as well as cellular leading to gigabit LTE. And I think 5G is likely going to be one of the largest market that China would not want to be behind all the other economies. So, I think the story in China is very good. In your last point about growth, we saw the top ten Chinese OEMs, which I think that we are very well-positioned going aggressively outside China. And I think that is enabling our China business to grow faster than the market. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Ross Seymore:
I have two questions. The first one on the OpEx side of the equation, George, obviously the litigation coming in [to the extent] [ph] so why the spending will be a bit higher in the quarter and the guide? But, the other side of the equation the 5G acceleration, can you talk a little bit about the sustainability of that, is it kind of last for a couple of quarters and then fall-off generally the strategy behind that. And then, the second question I had was on the NXT deal, the regulatory environment a lot of people have asked about that roadmap. But, I'm receiving a lot of questions with people debating that the price that you paid given the move in the semiconductor market may appear to be low. So, I was wondering if we could just get your thoughts on the price that you guys have agreed upon with NXT.
George Davis:
Ross, let me start with the OpEx question. Clearly, as you said we are escalating the activity with respect to litigation and so that you will continue to see growth in the spend there. But, on the 5G side and I may have Cristiano add some thoughts on this as well. We are seeing polling of activity by customers. And the number of trials increasing and we feel is very important to be seen and continue to be seen as leading those activities of course and on top of that that just means that the roadmap for 5G is getting pulled in more rapidly. So, it's not clear to me that this is a one or two quarter type event, I think we are going to see some elevated spending here over the next year to two as we get through these 5G trials and the beginning of commercial 5G launches. I will stop there for a minute and Cristiano if you want to add something.
Cristiano Amon:
No. I'm just going to say that I think more and more we see 19 as a reality for 5G commercialization.
George Davis:
Great. Thanks. And then, on the NXT deal, I will just reemphasize, our focus is really on the regulatory matters and getting those closed out along with the integration planning and we are confident we are going to go ahead and close this on the terms that we've agreed to by year-end.
Ross Seymore:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi. Few questions, first, puts and takes if you can discuss puts and takes of gross margin of QTL next quarter? And is there anything outside of lower revenue of level in the litigation expense? That's number one. And then, the second question is, now you lost big QCT business with your largest customer Apple. You lost -- there are some disputes with one of your largest customers on licensing. And the question is, does it will make more sense now to break up the company into two pieces or you are in the same position as before. I want to understand if you think there is any correlation between your ability to maximize the value of each segment separately in light of these disputes and these arguments with customers? Thanks.
George Davis:
Tal, its George. What you are seeing in the gross margin effect or really the margin effect that we guided for QTL is really revenue and revenue coming down based on these disputes that we have discussed actually the market is quite healthy, so all the other dynamics are very attractive. And then, the fact that we are ramping spending into that lower revenue for litigation matters. So, its combination of the two just pulled the margin down. It's not like a product business where you have a variable cost as revenue comes down where your cost come down. So, this one where until we get through this period of higher litigation spending and the dispute period, you will see lower than historic but the fundamentals behind the business outside of these disputes are quite attractive.
George Davis:
It's also Steve with respect to the business structure, I think we have looked at it pretty heavily in the past and it's still an area that we look at as the environment changes and make sure that we are -- we are making sure that we are putting the business in the right place to maximize value. But, at this point I think we feel like we have the right structure to resolve this dispute as well as the position the business for the future in terms of the transition into 5G as well as the growth into driving the cellular roadmap into new technology areas or new end opportunities. So, again, we look at this from time to time, continue to look at it the way to maximize value but I think we feel like we have the right business structure to resolve it.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Here are my questions. First, regarding this other licensee dispute, is it safe to say that this other dispute is not with the Chinese OEM given that you have already settled with the large Chinese OEMs, or is that not a leap of logic that it would be appropriate for me to make? Secondly, given the escalation here and given everything else has been going on, how do we gain conviction that we don't see further contagion, further spreading of this to other customers given this as soon as we bleeding out across the rest of your business?
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, this is Derek. As I said in response to an earlier question, we are not going to at this point disclose the identity of the licensee that we have the dispute with. So, not going to comment on that one further. I think on the question of contagion, if you think about we are working very hard across a number of fronts to really stabilize the regulatory environment and that remains a priority for us. Historically, we've had disputes with licensees large and small going back all the way to even with Nokia where they had 40% to 50% of the market and we are not being as for a period of time and that did not translate into our other licensees stopping payment. That's just one data point. But, as we sit here we are focused on resolving the issues we have, the current dispute with the licensee beyond. Apple is focused on their agreement, the contract dispute under their agreement. We are going to focus on getting those things resolved and I don't think as we sit here, we have any indication that that this somehow going to result in the bunch of other licensees deciding not to report and pay royalty.
Stacy Rasgon:
But, you never have any indication do you?
Derek Aberle:
If we didn't ever know -- which you ever know, but I'm saying historically -- if you look at it historically we haven't had that problem as we had disputes, we have been able to work through and resolve them without other licensees necessarily just deciding that they are not going to comply with their agreements. So, I think that's the best we can tell you at this point.
Stacy Rasgon:
But that's exactly what's happening right now, isn't it?
Derek Aberle:
No. That's not what's happening. We have a dispute with Apple and their contract manufacturers and we have dispute with one other licensee.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Please go ahead with your question.
Vijay Rakesh:
Thanks guys. Just going back on that other licensee, am I need to understand that it went from a partial non-payment to a full non-payment for the next quarter, is that what you are assuming in the guide? And on the Apple side, with the new litigation that you announced which is non-spend IT, can you give us some timelines from that, how does that stand? Thanks.
George Davis:
This is George. I will take the first question. Our guide in Q3 assumed a partial payment which we did not receive and we assume no payment or report in Q4 guidance.
Don Rosenberg:
And this is Don. On the -- I think you are referring to the two in the U.S. that we brought, and one recently in Germany. As we've said before the ITC case in the U.S. generally takes about 18 months, so we are hoping it will stay along that timeline. The cases in Germany could go as quickly as one year. But, obviously every case is somewhat different, but that's a good estimate, I would say.
Vijay Rakesh:
All right. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet. Please go ahead with your question.
Romit Shah:
Thank you very much. George just want to follow up on Rod's question regarding the NXT deal, with semiconductor stocks broadly up 30% to 40% since you announced your intension to buy the company. There has been uncertainty more recently on just whether or not you will get the 80% approval. And I know you are confident but I'm just curious like what's the -- how is the process work if you were to reevaluate your offer price. Would you only do so after the shareholders have voted or does it work differently?
George Davis:
Romit, I will just repeat, really our focus is on getting through regulatory and getting prepared for the close of the end of the year. I think everything else here is just speculation and I'm not going to comment further.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt:
I think my question have a couple. First one into to make sure that the closing of the TDK joint venture, did the June quarter have a full quarter of revenues and cost from that, or is that just partial? And then, Derek, I think you mentioned in the answer to a previous question if there were some catch-up payments in the Q3 QTL revenues, can you dimensionalize that or give us an indication that if you back those out, it would be pretty similar to their Q4 guide. And then, a question I guess for Steve, I think there was a lawsuit threat by Intel during the quarter related to Windows 10 and X80 simulation and I'm just wondering as it moved beyond a threat and does it change your opinion on that in market opportunity for you? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
On the -- for the third quarter we had a full quarter of the TDK joint venture. It’s ever since they are gone, on the catch-up payments they were, for Q3 I don't think we gave a specific number. They were meaningful and I think the way to think about the guide on Q4 is that the midpoint for the QTL revenue guidance, it doesn't have significant amount of catch-ups. So if you kind of look at it, quarter-over-quarter Q3 to Q4 relatively flat based on our guide. But, you are coming off a Q3 that had some meaningful catch up in it.
George Davis:
And with respect to the lawsuit and I think it was actually just a press report that I had heard and I think if anything, if I remember correctly wasn't directly toward us, it is probably directed toward the customers and the ecosystem involved in the PC space. We haven't heard anything about that since then. I will say that we are actively engaged with customers who are interested in that opportunity and that opportunity is coming here per the schedule that we gave in the past. So, it's a -- I think it is building some excitement, and we are pretty excited about what we are seeing there.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. Thank you. First of all, I just want to thank all the employees for their hard work and maybe I will finish up with four final thoughts. The first one is, given the environment that we are in just want to recognize and thank everybody for the strong results on the product side. It's really an indication of the strategy playing forward and we are pleased to see the results here in the business. Second one is the timing of NXT, it's on track. And I think building momentum and looking forward to that happening. We mentioned that on the third point that we are -- we believe we have the high ground on Apple in terms of our legal dispute we obviously ask for some patience in terms of us getting through that. So, we do feel good about our positioning there and hope you will be able to report people or we able to provide status as we report it. And finally, I just want to acknowledge the team for putting together a great roadmap and consistently showing up not only in the results, but also in some of the 5G excitement. And with that, I will just close and look forward to talking with you all next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Sinnott - Vice President, Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer Derek Aberle - President George Davis - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Cristiano Amon - Executive Vice President, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. and President of Qualcomm CDMA Technologies Donald Rosenberg - Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Rod Hall - JPMorgan Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Tavis McCourt - Raymond James
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM’s Second Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded April 19, 2017. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 95200877. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, everyone and good afternoon. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our investor relations website. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, or industry trends, or our business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, the comments from QUALCOMM’s Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong results this quarter. Fiscal second quarter non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.14 above the midpoint of our prior guidance range, reflecting a continued focus on operational performance across the businesses. Our semiconductor business continues to benefit from both a strong product roadmap, perhaps the strongest in our Company’s history as well as industry trends that bode well for our ability to further grow the semiconductor business outside of handsets. Automotive, networking and IoT were particularly strong this quarter. Several of these product lines became part of QUALCOMM largely through M&A and will be further strengthened with the upcoming addition of NXP. Our QCT business continues to deliver a broad set of industry leading products, positioning us well for the opportunities ahead. We delivered strong topline results this quarter and operating margins were ahead of expectations. Our partners are already announcing new premium tier devices based on our new Snapdragon 835 mobile platform including the Samsung Galaxy S8 and S8+, Sony Xperia XZ premium and the Xiaomi Mi 6. Additionally, the 835 is extending to new categories beyond smartphones such as the ODR or ODG AR smart glasses announced at CES. Our high and mid-tier Snapdragon 600 and 400 platform offerings continued to see high adoption, particularly in China with 200 plus devices and design in the 600-tier and 190 plus devices and design in the 400-tier worldwide. In March, we announced our 205 mobile platforms designed to bring 4G LTE connectivity and 4G services for entry level feature phones and we expect OEM devices to be announced starting this quarter. The increasing number of gigabit LTE operator launches around the world this year validates our early investment and enabling gigabit speeds across 4G networks and our modem roadmap continues to be more than a generation ahead of the competition. Telstra launched the world's first gigabit LTE network and device earlier this year and all four major U.S. carriers have announced plans to launch gigabit LTE in 2017. Our Snapdragon X16 gigabit LTE modem was featured in February in a live demo of the Sony Xperia XZ premium and more recently versions of the Samsung Galaxy S8 including in North America, China and Japan also featured gigabit LTE based on the Snapdragon 835. We continue to lead the industry to 5G through our 3GPP leadership, ongoing prototype efforts, announcements of meaningful 5G new radio trials as well as our industry first X50 5G modem. In February, we demonstrated the first 3GPP based 5G new radio connection and announced the extension of our Snapdragon X50 family of 5G modems to include support for the global 5G NR standard across the millimeter wave and sub-6 gigahertz frequency bands, along with backwards compatibility for 2G, 3G, 4G, including gigabit LTE. We expect commercial products to be available to support the first large scale 5G NR trials and commercial network launches starting in 2019. Turning to QTL, the licensing business had a strong quarter. Total reported device sales were a record driven by strong 3G/4G unit shipments and higher than expected ASPs. QTL results were in line with expectations as the stronger market and improved licensing in China offset the impact of a new dispute with a licensee. During the quarter, we returned approximately $1.1 billion to stockholders through dividends and stock repurchases. We also announced a 7.5% increase in our quarterly cash dividend now at $2.28 per share annually reflecting our confidence in the strength of our ongoing cash flows and future earnings growth. During the quarter, we closed on our joint venture with TDK, which is an important strategic milestone to grow our portfolio of RF front-end products and technologies. I am very pleased that we now have all the critical components to build industry-leading RF modules across tiers and to compete in the total RF front-end service available market. We also received U.S. regulatory clearance for our pending acquisition of NXP. We remain on track to close the transaction this calendar year and integration planning continues across both companies. Looking ahead, the adoption of mobile technologies and mobile computing is accelerating around the world. Our broad and growing set of technologies and innovations are fundamental to mobile communications and are enabling entirely new business models and ecosystems. This trend will continue for years to come as advanced 4G, 5G and other mobile technologies expand their footprint into new industries. Looking across the growing set of new industries embracing mobile technologies, we have more opportunities ahead of us than it any time in the Company's history. Against this backdrop, we have had a series of legal and regulatory challenges that have unfortunately overshadowed otherwise strong operating performance at QUALCOMM. We have successfully navigated challenges like this in the past and we have confidence in the sustainability of our licensing business. But we know these periods can generate added volatility in near-term results and require open and regular dialogue with our investors, which is something we are fully committed to providing. While we work to conclude the right deals that will deliver long-term value to our shareholders. Most importantly, we will remain focused on investing to lead innovation in key mobile and related technologies as that has always been the core of what's placed us in this unique and unmatched leadership position. While Derek will provide more details on the recent legal challenges, we have taken several specific steps to address the KFTC and FTC matters during the last quarter. And last week, we filed our answer and counterclaims in the Apple litigation here in Southern California. It is important to remember that ultimately this is about a contract dispute and business negotiation and we will work to reach the right resolution for our shareholders as we have done so often throughout our history. Further, the Company will continue to focus on developing and delivering the best products to our customers including Apple consistent with our track record to-date. We are optimistic about the speed of innovation in the modem and RF areas with technologies such as gigabit LTE, 5G NR, multimode and millimeter wave becoming increasingly important. Considering the strength of both our product roadmap in R&D investments, we expect to continue to be an important supplier to Apple now and into the future. As we continue towards the closing of our pending acquisition of NXP later this year, I thought it would be good to review some of the larger growth opportunities that will be enabled by our unique collection of technologies, sales channels and scale for the interconnected world. First, we will lead in 5G. 5G is the interconnecting fabric for the connected world and will drive not only an upgrade cycle in mobile, but will also enable new industries to take advantage of the mobile ecosystem. We will continue to work closely with global infrastructure vendors and operators on 5G NR trials to drive the mobile ecosystem toward validation and timely commercialization of 5G NR. To-date, we have announced 5G NR trials with SKT and Ericsson in Korea, AT&T and Ericsson in the United States, ZTE and China Mobile in China, Telstra and Ericsson in Australia, and Vodafone and Ericsson in Europe. The interoperability testing and trials are planned to launch in the second half of 2017. Second, we will grow our content in the device with our expanding RF front-end capabilities. We have taken a big step forward in closing the RF360 JV to transform this business and we also have already started delivering our first gallium arsenide PAs. As we move to 5G, the device will become more complex from an RF point of view as massive MIMO and multi-element arrays exist on many devices and our unique ability to provide solutions across the baseband and RF will become even more important to our customers. Third, automotive will continue to be a source of growth and we are winning more than just the telematics systems. Our automotive solutions, including cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and infotainment SoCs have been adopted by every major global automaker. Our Snapdragon, automotive infotainment platforms have won new designs at 12 of the top 25 global automaker brands. This strong design pipeline shows the strength of our computing solutions in the automotive market and represents an opportunity to sell multiple Snapdragons per car. With the addition of NXP, the opportunity to grow content in the car increases dramatically and we will be uniquely positioned for ADAS and autonomous driving, a large multi-decade mega trend that is just starting. You will be hearing more from us on this important topic in the future. Fourth, IoT will drive meaningful growth across a broad range of opportunities. Success in these opportunities will be defined by the ability to combined connectivity, computing and security along with a broad channel to serve not only industrial verticals, but a long tail of customers to deliver high complexity products and platforms that are easy for our customers to use and integrate. Here again the acquisition of NXP will uniquely position us with IoT systems solutions and channels and builds on the success we are seeing in the business today. Fifth, we have an opportunity to disrupt the existing suppliers of the PC and the datacenter. Our Snapdragon 835 is expanding into Mobile PC designs running Windows 10, which are scheduled to launch in the fourth calendar quarter this year. In the data center, we announced the collaboration with Microsoft and demonstrated Windows Server Running on our 10 nanometer Qualcomm Centriq processors, the first 10 nanometer server processors in the industry. To close, we are very focused on resolving the challenges to our licensing business and business model and we are confident we will be able to successfully navigate through this environment. At the same time, this is an extremely exciting and transformative time for our Company as the technologies and products are well positioned to expand into a growing set of opportunities and will be further enhanced with the completion of our pending acquisition of NXP. I would now like to turn the call over to Derek.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon, everyone. As Steve noted, QTL had a strong fiscal second quarter with record total reported device sales of approximately $82.6 billion, up approximately 18% year-over-year and just above the high-end of our prior guidance range. The record TRDS for the quarter reflects significantly increased year-over-year unit reporting from recent China licensing progress as well as ASP strength particularly in China and typical seasonal strength in North America. We estimate that reported 3G/4G device shipments were approximately 400 million units within ASP of approximately $207 at the midpoints. Global 3G/4G handset ASPs are tracking consistent with our prior expectations of low single-digit percentage declines year-over-year. We also continue to see healthy growth in global 3G/4G device shipments. For calendar year 2016, we have increased our estimate of global 3G/4G device shipments to reflect even stronger December quarter shipments than we previously expected led by stronger sales in China. We estimate that approximately 1.7 billion 3G/4G devices were shipped in 2016, up approximately 10% year-over-year. For calendar 2017, we are reaffirming our estimated global 3G/4G device shipments of 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices, up approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. We believe that some of the December quarter shipments strength in China resulted in a modest build-up of inventory there, which we expect will be sold through in the first half of calendar 2017. We estimate that this will push some of the expected first half calendar 2017 shipments into the second half of the calendar year and thus into QTL’s fiscal 2018 instead of fiscal 2017. The fiscal second quarter revenue and operating profit results for QTL, which were largely in line with our prior guidance were negatively impacted by a dispute with one of our licensees. This dispute resulted in the licensee underpaying royalties of more than $150 million for sales during the December quarter. We are working to resolve this dispute, but we expect the licensee, which is not one of the suppliers of iPhones to Apple to continue to under report its royalties until the dispute is resolved and therefore have factored that into our guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2017. Last week, we announced that an arbitration panel awarded BlackBerry and $850 million refund of royalties that have previously paid to QUALCOMM for past sales. The dispute related to whether our voluntary per unit running royalty cap program applied to BlackBerry’s non-refundable prepayments of royalties for a license to sell a specified number of handsets from 2010 through the end of 2015. We strongly disagree with the ruling, but it is binding and not appealable. It is worth noting that this was a specific contract provision that was unique to BlackBerry’s agreement, so this outcome has no impact on agreements with any other licensee. The contract provision also does not apply to BlackBerry sales after 2015. It is also important to note that even after this refund, BlackBerry paid royalties for all devices it sold during the 2010 to 2015 time period equal to the per unit amount specified in our voluntary per unit running royalty program. We continue to actively pursue resolutions and protect the established value of our patented technologies in the regulatory and other legal matters in which we are involved. We have plans for addressing each of these proceedings and are confident that the QTL business will remain a strong cash flow contributor to the Company for many years to come. Regarding the KFTC, we have begun the formal legal process for both an appeal and a stay of the decision pending the outcome of the appeal, as the ruling is clearly inconsistent with the facts and the law reflects a flawed process and represents a violation of due process rights owed American companies under the Korea, U.S. pre-trade agreement. We expect to have a decision on our application for a stay in the coming months. As to the U.S. FTC investigation, we have filed a motion to dismiss the FTC’s compliant consistent with our ongoing view that the complaint which was filed just days before the change in administration in over a strong objection by the commissioner who is now the acting chair of the FTC fails to state a plausible antitrust claim and offers no facts or economic theory supporting the claim of competitive harm. As to the Taiwan investigation, we are continuing to cooperate with the TFTC as we work towards finding the resolution of this matter. While certain investigations in Europe remain pending. These investigations do not involve QUALCOMM's licensing business or practices. Finally, as Steve mentioned, we have now formally responded to the complaint filed by Apple here in Southern California. Apple’s complaint includes numerous misstatements and mischaracterizations of our agreements, negotiations and contributions to the industry. I urge you to read our answer which clearly describes in detail the facts and corrects these misstatements and mischaracterizations as well as details of the value of the fundamental technologies we have invented, contributed and shared with the industry through our licensing program. We have a strong track record of establishing and defending the value of our technologies that have played an important role in enabling the entire mobile ecosystem, including the incredible smartphone experience. We have freely negotiated and entered into more than 300 license agreements over many years, including with the largest and most sophisticated companies in our industry. The offers we have made to Apple for a direct license to QUALCOMM cellular standard essential patents are consistent with the value of our patent technologies established by these more than 300 arm’s length license agreements and are fully compliant with QUALCOMM's FRAND commitments. It is unfortunate that Apple has rejected these fair and reasonable offers. Also our license agreements with Apple suppliers remain valid long-term agreements many of which were negotiated and entered into before Apple sold the first iPhone. Despite Apple's claims against QUALCOMM, Apple suppliers remain contractually obligated to pay royalties to QUALCOMM under their license agreements with us, including for sales of iPhones to Apple. In our fiscal second quarter, Apple interfered with the license agreements between QUALCOMM and the Apple suppliers by actively inducing them to underpay the royalties they owed to QUALCOMM for sales during the December quarter. Apple withheld payment to their suppliers for sales in the December quarter in an amount equal to what Apple claims QUALCOMM owes to Apple under a separate cooperation agreement between the companies. This was consistent with what Apple said it would do in the complaint it filed in San Diego prior to our last earnings call. Apple suppliers then underpaid royalties to QUALCOMM in the same amount. In the aggregate, this amount is approximately $1 billion. Most of Apple suppliers have already reported the royalties they owe to QUALCOMM for sales to Apple during the March quarter and they are obligated to pay the full amount of those royalties to us. While would expect Apple suppliers to pay the royalties they owe us under their license agreements, it is possible that Apple will continue to interfere with the Apple suppliers license agreements leading those suppliers to breach their contract with QUALCOMM by underpaying some or all of what they owe us. We expect to have more visibility into this in the coming weeks. Given this uncertainty, our fiscal third quarter guidance assumes a range of possible payments from Apple, from the Apple suppliers, but does not reflect a scenario that Apple suppliers pay nothing to us for March quarter sales. Turning to our data center business, as Steve mentioned, we recently announced the collaboration with Microsoft to accelerate next-generation cloud services on our 10 nanometer Centriq 2400 platform, which will span multiple future generations of hardware, software and systems. We also showcased our first public demonstration of Windows Server on ARM running on our processors and contributed a Qualcomm Centriq Open Compute Motherboard to the OCP community. We remain on track for commercial shipments of our server processors by the end of the calendar year and we continue to receive good feedback from our customers. That concludes my comments, and I will now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fiscal second quarter was another solid quarter with non-GAAP revenues of $6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.34, up 13% sequentially. We exceeded the midpoint of our non-GAAP earnings per share by $0.14. Better than expected performance at QCT accounted for approximately $0.05 of the upside on solid MSM demand and strong performance across auto, networking and IoT. The balance of the performance came from better than expected investment portfolio gains and a lower estimated annual tax rate. QTL was in line with expectations for the quarter despite the impact of a licensee dispute join the positive effect of licensing progress in China, strong 3G, 4G demand and a focus on costs. In QCT, MSM chip shipments were 179 million, modestly above the midpoint of our prior guidance. QCT revenues were $3.7 billion and implied revenue per MSM was up sequentially on stronger product mix consistent with our expectations. QCT operating margin was 13% above the high-end of our prior expectations, reflecting higher gross margins in mobile and better than expected operating results in auto, networking and IoT. As Steve mentioned, we were pleased to close the RF360 joint venture in February. We are consolidating the results of the JV on a one-month lag basis and it added approximately 75 million in revenue in the quarter on one-month of activity. QTL fiscal second quarter revenues were $2.2 billion in line with expectations. Total reported device sales were a record and exceeded our prior guidance range on strong ASPs offset by an estimated underpayment of more than 150 million related to a dispute with a licensee. As Derek explained, Apple suppliers reported royalties in the fiscal second quarter for sales activity in the December quarter withheld approximately $1 billion from their payments. This amount is equal to the amount that Apple claims QUALCOMM owes it under a separate cooperation agreement between QUALCOMM and Apple. It is worth noting that fiscal second quarter royalties revenues were not impacted by the underpayment because the suppliers reported the full royalties for the term of their agreement and acknowledge they were due, but underpaid by the same amount that QUALCOMM is withholding from Apple under the cooperation agreement. This is consistent with the guidance we provided last quarter. GAAP results for our fiscal second quarter reflect a $974 million reduction of revenues associated with the BlackBerry arbitration award including estimated interest in attorney's fees. This reduced fiscal second quarter GAAP EPS by approximately $0.48 per share. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses increased approximately 7% sequentially including the RF360 JV, which was not in our original guidance. Absence of JV, we would have been at the low end of our prior 6% to 8% guidance range. Our non-GAAP tax rate during the fiscal second quarter was 15%. We now estimate that our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP tax rate will be approximately 17% down from our prior estimate of 18% on changes in business mix. We returned approximately $1.1 billion to stockholders in the quarter including $782 million of dividends paid and $283 million in stock repurchases. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $29 billion. The balance sheet this quarter merits some additional commentary to explain the impacts of the licensing related matters as well as the close of RF360 joint venture. First, there were notable adjustments associated with our joint venture with TDK. As a reminder, we are fully consolidating the results of this joint venture as we have the ability to control the business. As a result, our balance sheet reflects the addition of approximately $3.1 billion of the JVs net assets including $1.7 billion of intangible assets in goodwill, $800 million in property, plant and equipment, $260 million in inventory, and $250 million in accounts receivable. Our accounts receivable balance at quarter end also reflects the approximately $1 billion due from Apple suppliers and we continue to carry approximately $1 billion in other current liabilities for the unpaid disputed amounts with respect to the cooperation agreement with Apple, which expired at the end of calendar 2016. Note that these unpaid disputed amounts have been accrued as a reduction to revenues in our P&L over the past few quarters. Also including other current liabilities is $974 million related to the recent BlackBerry award, which we expect to pay in the next few months and $921 million related to the KFTC fine, which was paid shortly after the end of the fiscal second quarter. I will now turn to our fiscal third quarter. Our guidance range for earnings per share is wider than our typical practice primarily due to the uncertainty around whether Apple suppliers will withhold some portion of the royalty payments they are obligated to pay another contracts with us. We have considered a variety of scenarios within the range. Our guidance range does not include the case where no payments are made by Apple suppliers. We will update our guidance if we subsequently learn of any action that would take us materially outside of the announced guidance range. We have also assumed in our guidance that the licensee dispute that Derek mentioned, which arose in the fiscal second quarter remains unresolved in the third quarter and will result in an underpayment relative to what the licensee owes for the third quarter. As a reminder, we are coming off the seasonally strong fiscal second quarter for QTL and our fiscal third quarter typically reflects our low quarter of the year for both revenues and EPS on a normalized basis. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.3 billion to $6.1 billion. The year-over-year comparisons for both revenue and EPS are impacted by more than $400 million in catch up licensing revenues recorded in the third quarter of fiscal 2016. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal third quarter to be in the range of approximately $0.90 to $1.15 per share. We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up approximately 2% to 4% sequentially primarily due to a full quarter impact of the RF360 JV operating expenses and growing spend on litigation matters. In QTL we estimate total reported device sales between $59 billion and $67 billion will be reported by our licensees in the June quarter for shipments they made in the March quarter, down sequentially compared to the seasonally high holiday quarter shipments reflected in fiscal Q2. This includes estimated 3G/4G device sales from Apple's contract manufacturers as well as from the licensee currently in dispute in underpaying. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 180 million to 200 million units during the June quarter, higher sequentially at the midpoint despite the excess inventory at certain OEMs in China exiting Q2. We expect inventory levels at those OEMs to largely correct within our fiscal third quarter. For the Snapdragon 835 premium tier chipset, we are seeing strong demand exceeding supply. Our growth in operating margin relative to demand in the quarter is being limited by our ability to ramp volumes at 10 nanometer. We expect this to begin to normalize in the fiscal fourth quarter. We expect QCT's fiscal third quarter operating margin to be approximately 13% plus or minus 100 basis points reflecting year-over-year improvement as we continue to gain traction in adjacent opportunities particularly auto, IoT and networking. Our current expectation is that we will be in the capital markets in the second half of fiscal 2017 to fund the remaining portion of our acquisition related needs. We continue to sell longer dated and higher volatility assets in our treasury investment portfolio in anticipation of funding the close of our pending NXP acquisition later in the calendar year. Based on the current market environment, we expect the total of net investment income and interest expense for fiscal 2017 to be flat to down modestly on a non-GAAP basis versus fiscal 2016. The outlook has improved somewhat on the higher yields on short-term assets. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod Hall:
Yes. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Hope you can hear me okay. I just wanted to clarify George what you guys are saying about the withholding, and Derek as well. So our understanding is the rebates, the alleged rebates were withheld for a couple of quarters, and so it sounds like what you're saying is the amount of royalty withheld is catching up for two quarter of rebate withholdings. So I just want to clarify that is in fact the case. And then I also wanted to see if you guys could give us any further color on the guidance range and are you assuming that the royalty withholdings at the midpoint would be equivalent to these rebates that are allegedly not being paid, and then how does the top and bottom end of that EPS range figure into what you're assuming on royalties? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Hey, Rod. This is Derek. So if you think about Q2 which we had talked about last quarter in our reporting obviously for this quarter. Basically what happened is, we have a dispute with Apple as to whether we owe them about $1 billion under a cooperation agreement we have. That spans over several quarters of possible payments. What they said in their complaint and what they ended up doing as it relates to the second quarter which are sales through the end of December of 2016 is they effectively withheld payment to their contract manufacturers who then in turn withheld payment to us for royalties that were owed under the contract manufacturers agreements with us in the amount of this disputed cooperation payment, which is about $1 billion. And so that is all reflected in Q2, and as George mentioned because the amounts were reported to us and acknowledged as due, and then we have the cash that we haven't paid to Apple, effectively we took the revenue in Q2 for the amount of the four royalties that were paid net the reserve we had for the payments that are being disputed going back towards Apple. So that's the situation on Q2. On Q3, the guidance as we mentioned includes sort of a variety of possible assumptions on what may play out in terms of what gets paid to us by the contract manufacturers for Q3. I would say the high end of the guidance would be reflective of us getting paid in full, but we've got some other scenarios that are reflected in the range. The agreement itself with Apple which is where we have the dispute of what is owed to them expired at the end of 2016, so has really no relevance or impact to what the contract manufacturers would owe us for sales during the March quarter which is the guidance we’ve provided for Q3. One last point on this is what is not contemplated in the guidance range is for the contract manufacturers to pay us nothing or very low amount. If that were to happen then we would update you all.
George Davis:
Rod let me add one thing as well, when you look at Q2 you can look to the balance sheet and see the accounts receivable has had a fairly significant pop, not only because we've brought in RF360, but the receivable is up by the - $1 billion of that is the amount owed by the CM’s which are not disputing the fact that they have reported and are obligated to pay under the contract for this amount. So it has shown as a receivable. We are still holding the $1 billion related to the dispute from the prior quarters under current liabilities on our balance sheet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder Garcha:
Thanks. Along the same subject I’m afraid and then - on the - just a clarification on your own building was withheld by the contract manufacturers, but something was paid to you, something else was paid to you above that level I assume and it’s not good lead indicator for being paid going forward, am I thinking if I wrong?
Steve Mollenkopf:
No. Yes, go ahead and ask your second question, would jump and then…
Kulbinder Garcha:
And then the other question was really more strategic about how the Apple and QUALCOMM thing plays out. The Foxconn agreement you have is that due to expire anytime soon? I assume it's not you haven't told us about device when it clarify that and it's very rare from what I can remember where you have an agreement with a party and it just stopped paying you. You had a deals expired in the past and you've had disputes perhaps and you have people that want to report on you all day, but is has ever been a scenario where you've had an agreement that last or some period of time and vendor in question just stops paying?
George Davis:
So Kulbin, I'll take the first part of the question, which is what they paid to us, was simply the difference between the full amount owed under the contract minus the disputed amount. So there was some incremental payment that came in, but it was net of that $1 billion that that we described in the prepared remarks.
Derek Aberle:
Yes, just to add to that - this is Derek. The cooperation agreement between QUALCOMM and Apple as I said expired at the end of 2016. So unlike Q2 there really is no basis on which to even argue that there should be a payment of something less than the full amount that the contract manufacturers owed to us. In terms of the Foxconn agreement, it's a long-term agreement. It is not set to expire any time soon. Those are again long-term agreements that are valid in binding and include the contractual obligation to pay the only thing that expired or the direct agreements between QUALCOMM and Apple and those went away at the end of 2016. And to your last point, yes it's been very rare, actually as I sit here can't think of a situation where somebody just simply stop paying us entirely under their agreement where we didn't have a dispute with them as to what they owed or some other thing going on, so that would be rare.
Donald Rosenberg:
This is Don. Just to add one or two things. So to be clear, the excuse that the contract manufacturers used was that Apple wasn't paying them and what Apple was saying was that they are holding back payment to them to match the payments that they claim we owed them from the other agreement to BCPA, no connection to the license agreement between us and our contract manufacturers. So with this totally improper for the contract manufacturers to withhold and we now look at what they're going to do going forward and we say well even we excuse that they used before that is Apple claiming that they were making up for amounts that we didn't pay them doesn't exist anymore. So there doesn't seem to be even an arguable rational reason for anybody to withhold payments.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Michael Walkley:
Great, thank you. Just staying on this topic, just trying to understand maybe the guidance in accounting ramifications, one, you have a licensee that you're dispute with and you didn't recognize $150 million in revenue and I think when you had a dispute with Nokia going back in time when they materially underpaid during that process you have withheld Nokia revenue from your guidance. So if say the contract manufacturers pay some smaller dollar amount that Apple theoretically said they should pay them, do you still recognize a portion of that revenue or do you just take out for altogether like maybe you've done with some of the licensee. Just trying to understand the accounting ramifications if there is any change from your licensee? And then my more fundamental question just on the outlook for QTL, if you can help just walk us on a sequential between seasonality of this the Apple range and then you had this licensee disputed maybe if you could help us just see the sequential decline kind of those different puts and takes that would be helpful? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
So in terms of taking revenue in the case of a dispute, typically if there's a formal dispute then we would not take revenue until the dispute is resolved and I'll let Derek or Don comment on what constitutes the formal dispute, but certainly entry into arbitration or lawsuit is one case in the past. For the customer in the second quarter, the customer reported fully and underpaid and as not filed a formal dispute and in that case we take the revenue for the amount paid while we're working on collecting the balance owed from the customer. And then do you want to add to that at all?
Derek Aberle:
Yes. I think just the difference Mike - this is Derek - in the two scenarios that the situation we have the current dispute where we didn't take revenue this quarter about 150 million - little more than 150 million. That situation where we did not get paid, so typically if there's a dispute and we're not getting paid, we wouldn't take the portion that's being withheld, which is different than if we are getting paid. On your sequence question, I think really got to remember the Q2 obviously is seasonally high quarter for the year, December quarter obviously typically the high quarter for QTL, so there would normally be a sequential decline going into Q3. I think other factors to consider, I would say we're assuming as I mentioned in my remarks that this dispute will not get resolved with the licensee we mentioned in Q3. So Q2 to Q3 were both assuming an underpayment and then we have a range of possibilities in the assumptions for what we'll get paid from the contract manufacturers supplying to Apple. If I up level it to the market, the market I think is continues to be quite strong. I would say it played out just a little bit differently in terms of what came in, in Q2 versus Q3. If you look at the TRDS range, we were above the high-end slightly of the Q2 TRDS range because of the phenomena of just more sales into China with a little inventory build that we expect will get sold through in Q3, which is therefore a bit of a drag on Q3 TRDS. So I think those are sort of the main drivers to keep in mind.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Long:
Thank you. Just two quick ones if I could here. First, I just want to clarify the guidance for next quarter. Are you still booking the operating expenses or COGS hit that you were taking for the payment that was going back to Apple previously under that agreement. So if you can clarify if that's still hurting your EPS and reserving against it on the balance sheet and when would that change? And then secondly, the licensee with the $150 million dispute, Derek could you talk a little bit about, I know you can't get into too much of the details, but I just want to understand is this something that maybe is a by-product of other licensees seeing some of these special Apple agreements that were mentioned in their dispute in the BlackBerry arbitration and if not are you getting a lot of phone calls from other OEMs that have seen these other deals that they maybe do not have an understanding they have separate arrangements is that potentially causing any renegotiations? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Tim on the - in terms of the accruals that we've taken, those stopped as the contract expires at the end of the calendar year with the last period that that would be reported in - for us was in fiscal Q2.
George Davis:
And just to be - just a reminder, we didn't characterize sort of where those - were accruing on the P&L and that’s I don't want to make it seem like we're validating your description of them. On the second point, I think the way to think about that is the licensee with, which we have a dispute now, those discussions with the licensee I would say have been ongoing for some time and predated the filing in any of the litigation between us and Apple. A lot of times these discussions will go for a period of time before they escalate into a dispute and so that the timing is what it is, but I think it's important to note that the discussions leading up to dispute predated into the BlackBerry or the Apple litigation. And I don't really see a connection to that if you think about the BlackBerry decision. It really is an isolated agreement. And as I mentioned in my remarks even after we make the refund, the amount that BlackBerry paid per unit during that time period was basically consistent with the caps that we have for premium tier devices. So I don't anticipate really any impact from that decision on what other licensees would claim in terms of what it means to their agreements. The Apple situation as we mentioned in a lot of detail in our response, the terms under those agreements I think were grossly mischaracterized in Apple submission. So, yes we've had to have some discussions with licensees to try to clarify what it is and isn't. But I would say that's sort of normal course discussions we would typically have with companies.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Tim, I would add that as I said in my prepared remarks that the disputed amounts under the cooperation agreement were accrued as a reduction to revenues in the P&L. So we can give that level of commentary.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
James Faucette:
Thank you very much. Just a couple of questions, first on that the topic of royalties from the contract manufacturers, have you received any payments sense that the original lawsuit was filed and is that part of the reason that you feel comfortable assuming that at least some royalties will be paid and in the June quarter? And then I did want to touch quickly on the NXPI acquisition. Any update on timing of other regulatory body approvals? And can you give us a rough outline yet as to what the financing cost for that portion will be or what the interest rates may look like et cetera if and as that deal closes? Thank you very much.
Derek Aberle:
Jim, this is Derek. On your first question about the contract manufacturers. So yes for Q2 what was reported and owed to us by the contract manufacturers actually exceeded the amount that's in dispute between QUALCOMM and Apple under the cooperation agreement. So we did receive payments under those licenses for the difference as George mentioned between what those companies owed and basically the disputed amount that Apple withheld. And for the Q3, basically we've already received royalty reports from most of the contract manufacturer suppliers to Apple and believe there is a clear and binding payment obligation as it relates to those payments and there is no dispute about other money that is owed from QUALCOMM to Apple. So again if these licensees are operating in accordance with the terms of the agreement they should pay and they should pay the full amount, but again more - a little cautious until we actually get the payment in hand and so that's reflected in the guidance as well as just pointing out that the situation where there's zero payment is not reflected in our range today.
Donald Rosenberg:
This is Don. On the NXP question. So yes, we're pretty much moving as expected as Steve mentioned, we have past the HSR process in the U.S. We should be filing very shortly in Europe and we filed in China already that has not yet been doctored by China, but it's there. And we would anticipate filing in the other jurisdiction very quickly after we’ve completed filing in Europe. So we believe we’re still on track, and we're moving forward.
George Davis:
On the financing front, we expect to be in the market in the second half, we have not put out an estimate yet on the financing costs. No material change in our expected sizing, which was between $10 billion and $12 billion of acquisition debt. But the form of that debt, the term and the tenor will all have an impact on estimated cost and we're not locked down on those yet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona Jankowski:
Hi. Thank you very much. First, I just wanted to clarify if the payments to Apple under the BCPA were previously reported as comes from revenues in QCT or in QTL. And then the question on the new licensee that was underpaying in the quarter, did they still pay the majority of what they owed you or what’s the $150 million that they underpaid in fact the majority of what they owed you? And then along the same lines, your accounts receivable increased by about $2 billion of which you commented that $1 billion was due to the Apple withholding and then some of that was the TDK joint venture, but in the filing - in the Q, you also say that some of the increase was due to the delayed payments of other licensees. So I was just curious if there are other potential disputes that contributed to that or if that's just purely timing?
Derek Aberle:
Hi, Simona. This is Derek. Maybe I'll take the first two and then George can take the last one. Yes, the amounts that are in dispute between us and Apple as we mentioned last quarter have been fully accounted for and run through the P&L in prior quarters. We did not specify sort of where in the P&L, the various payments were flowing and I think at this time are going to continue on that path. As to the dispute with the licensee, I'm not sure I can characterize majority versus minority, but they did pay a significant amount of royalties to us and didn't withhold - they withheld only a portion of what they owed not the entire payment.
George Davis:
So on the accounts receivable outside of the Apple related $1 billion and the RF360 amounts, what you had was growth in receivables related to QCT, which was just a timing issue or payment relative to when shipments were made. And then on the QTL piece that is really just the timing of payments that are being made on some of the catch up payments where they're spread out over a short period of time just to allow customers to get caught up in addition to fully paying at their new run rate.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I know you're making the point that the contract manufacturers are under obligation to pay no matter what they're getting from Apple, but let's be honest they're going to pay you whatever they get from Apple given presumably. So given what you know at this point of Apple's intentions, how can we assess that risks just the fact that you're - you aren't contemplating Apple completely ceasing their payments, so I just think you judge their risk of that happen to be lower, it's just not a scenario that you want to contemplate at this point? And on the revenue recognition, you give us some good color on kind of what constitutes a deferral versus not, but let's just say hypothetically next quarter the contract manufacturers were to pay you 50% of what you believe they owe you for Q3. Would you be able to recognize all that 50% or would you have to defer at that point and send an arbitration and call it zero? How do we think about revenue recognition depending on what's coming in?
Donald Rosenberg:
Stacy, this is Don. Maybe a couple of us who would want to respond to the first question, but yes, to start what you said, I understand it’s a figure of speech, let's be honest. We are being honest and what is a good thing to think about is I disagree with you that it's a foregone conclusion. As I said earlier, Apple's claimed in its case against us is that they would held the specific amount of money in payments to their contract manufacturers because they said it's an offset against money that they claim, we withheld from them improperly in another contract. While we disagree with that claim obviously, the rationale for that no longer applies. As Derek said earlier, that BCPA contract is expired. So they're no more moneys even arguably due from us to them and therefore no basis or rationale to continue withholding from the contract manufacturers. And as Derek also said the contract manufacturers have valid binding contracts with us and our expectation is that they will abide by those obligations and pay us the amount they owe us, which they reported for the quarter.
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, this is Derek. I think on your second question, I think probably the best way to think about it is, we’d have to wait and see all of the circumstances under which the revenue got reported and paid to us to sort of make a final judgment on that, but at a high level I would say we have binding valid agreements with them if they reported half of what they owe and paid that to us. I think the most likely scenario is as long as we're not in litigation with them that we would recognize that revenue within the quarter that is paid.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis McCourt:
Hey, thanks for taking my questions. The $150 million or so license payments that have been withheld in the second quarter, was that contemplated in your second quarter guidance or is that something that happened after the last report? And then, so just to be clear on the contract manufacturers payments for your third quarter guidance, the high end of the guidance would presume they pay in full, but there's no presumption of, obviously, the cooperation agreement payments from you towards Apple with that guidance? Is that correct?
George Davis:
Let me start with your first question which was - we did not contemplate the underpayment in the Q2 guidance. It’s one of the reasons why we made the point that actually if you factor that out it was a strong quarter for QTL, they were able to come in at expectation despite that, and you saw that in the strength of the market and also the strength in ASP's, they also worked hard to manage the cost. In terms of our guidance for Q3, again we’ve looked at a variety of scenarios, I’m not going to lay out every one of the scenarios, but the things that we thought could happen. We are anticipating in our guidance that we have not resolved the dispute with the one customer that made the underpayment in Q2, so that is factored into our guidance. And then there's a variety of scenarios for the Apple contract manufacturers and also just the normal range of uncertainties that we have when we give guidance.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Well, I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. I also want to thank the employees for delivering a great quarter and particular the folks who are delivering on the new businesses. It was really a strong quarter and I appreciate all the hard work. We'll talk to everybody next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Sinnott - VP, IR Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - President and CFO Cristiano Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies and President, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies Don Rosenberg - EVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Rod Hall - J.P. Morgan Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM First Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 25, 2017. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 48860663. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
John Sinnott:
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our investor relations Web site. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our Web site later today. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures, as defined in Regulation G. And you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our Web site. In addition, we will make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, or industry trends, or our business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, the comments from QUALCOMM’s Chief Executive Officer, Steven Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered a strong quarter with revenue and non-GAAP EPS growth of 4% and 23% year-over-year respectively, reflecting strong results of technology leadership and disciplined execution in our core mobile businesses. Before discussing our business activities further, I would like to first comment on the recent legal challenges facing QUALCOMM. This is something we take very seriously, and we’ll cover in depth today. But before that, let me say that, historically, we’ve had a strong relationship with Apple, and they have been a long standing and valued customer. We intend to remain a good supplier to Apple, even while this dispute continues, and believe there is no better long-term partner for Apple than QUALCOMM and our industry leading technology. We believe that our strong and highly differentiated product roadmap will continue to be the foundation for our relationship, and covers a broad range of technologies that will be fundamental to new products for years to come. Our preference is always to resolve customer disputes through negotiations, instead of litigation. So it is regrettable that Apple has chosen to take this path. We are well prepared and confident in our ability to successfully defend against Apple's claims, as well as the related regulatory matters in Korea and with the FTC. Apple's complaint contains a lot of assertions. But in the end, this is a commercial dispute over the price of intellectual property. They want to pay less with the fair value that QUALCOMM has established in the marketplace for our technology, even though Apple has generated billions in profits from using that technology. QUALCOMM has always been and remains a systems innovator, and R&D engine for the mobile industry. Unlike virtually every major company in our industry, sharing technology broadly with the industry through our licensing program has always been a paramount aspect of our business model, along with enabling competition. Our inventions have fundamentally enabled the mobile industry, and while those contributions began more than three decades ago. We continue to invest heavily and lead the way in 4G LTE technology and mobile computing, and we are now leading the industry to 5G. And, although the initial market value of our portfolio was established a long time ago, that value has tangibly and meaningfully increased overtime as our technology contributions and our patent portfolio have grown significantly. Yet, we have never raised our royalty rates. This established value, that has been reaffirmed time-and-time again as we have renegotiated existing licenses and entered into new license agreements with numerous licensees over the years, including over 120 new licenses in China within just the last two years. As many of you on the call today are aware, we have a long history of successfully defending our licensing practices and business model, which have been tested around the global, most recently in China. The resilience of our practices reflects both the fundamental and differentiated contributions we make to the core technology, enabling the smartphone platform and the mobile industry as a whole. We invest heavily to push the technology boundaries for the benefit of our licenses and their customers, and the industry as a whole. And their licenses become more valuable and comprehensive overtime. We out-innovate and out-invest other players in mobile and have negotiated and signed more than 200 license agreements, which validate and recognize the value of our technology contributions and related portfolio of IP. At the same time, I believe we have more opportunity ahead of us than at any time in the Company's history. And I assure you that our teams remained focused on executing on those opportunities, which when realized, will provide the next significant growth period for QUALCOMM with an estimated $138 billion serviceable addressable market in 2020. Our pending acquisition of NXP is reflective of and consistent with these opportunities. This highly complementary combination accelerates our scale and portfolio of products and technologies, as well as expands our go-to-market channels in the growth segments of automotive, IoT, security, and networking. We are seeing very strong support for this transaction, and our conversations with customers. And look forward to realizing the full potential of bringing the two companies together. We are progressing on our regulatory filings for the NXP transaction and integration planning is well underway. Another important opportunity comes with the formation of our joint venture with TDK. We are concluding 12 months of preparation and expect to close the JV this quarter. I believe this JV would transform our activities RF front-end from a strong niche player to a truly formidable challenger competing with all the necessary technology blocks to build our presence in that space. I’m also excited about our recently announced program with Microsoft to bring Snapdragon to mobile compute. This allows us to bring the advantages of mobile innovation, leading consumer electronics technologies, and connectivity of the Snapdragon platform to laptop PCs, and expand our participation in a serviceable addressable market opportunity, expected to be $6 billion in 2020. As another example of our ability to expand our computing presence, our data center business also continues to execute well, as Derek will explain in more detail in a moment. I would like to thank the QUALCOMM team for a strong showing at CES. Our newly announced Snapdragon 835 sets new standards for the next generation of smartphones, computing, VR and AR, and many other applications. And we are leading the semiconductor industry in 10 nanometer technology. We also continue to set new bars in modem technology, including our new X16 gigabit LTE and X55 modems. Simply stated, the roadmap is as strong today as it is ever been. To summarize, we are very excited about the future and the many opportunities directly in front of us. This is a truly transformative time in the Company’s history. I’m confident we will address and get through the legal challenges underway as we have done many times in the past. And in the meantime, I’m pleased to see our results reflect strong execution in both our major businesses. I would now like to turn the call over to Derek.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. First, I would like to build on Steve’s earlier comments regarding Apple’s recent legal claims. Not only our Apple’s claims without merit, but the attempt to undermine the standards-based agreements that have been the backbone of the mobile revolution, the framework that has facilitated and motivated a small number of companies, like QUALCOMM, to make investments to develop new technology, as well as the products and infrastructure to support that technology. The cornerstone of the global mobile technology ecosystem and the success of so many industry participants is based on the notion that companies that are willing to invest the necessary capital and devote engineering talent to invent technologies long before they can ever be implemented be fairly compensated for sharing those inventions through licensing. At QUALCOMM, we have spent billions of dollars, and have continually focused on inventing the breakthrough technologies that have fuelled the mobile revolution, and enabled multiple generations of technological innovations in smartphones and other connected devices. Our industry leadership today comes from making these significant focused investments ahead of the industry over many years to create leading technology. From our inception, QUALCOMM has been at the forefront of the industry; imaging, inventing and commercializing the fundamental technologies at scale that brought high-speed mobile data and computing to a global mass market reality. It is QUALCOMM, which drove the development of ubiquitous cellular connectivity in mobile computing, including increasingly higher data rates and spectrum efficiency, as well as more powerful and efficient mobile computing solutions that enable the key features and functions of smartphones, and which are making consumers’ lives better, connecting billions of people to the Internet for the first time, and enabling countless new businesses in industries. Our technology has enabled the mobile economy and the foundation for business models and applications of companies like Uber, Snapchat, Instagram, messaging apps like WhatsApp and iMessage, streaming services like Spotify, smart assistance like Siri and Google Assistant, and many others across the globe. Our innovations in assisted GPS have also led to location based services, real-time mapping, and navigation service on which hundreds of millions of people around the world now depend. This mobile application revolution was enabled directly by QUALCOMM's business model of inventing and broadly sharing through licensing our key technologies with hundreds of companies in the mobile ecosystem. Without our technology, our investments and our innovation, the mobile world today would not be nearly as disruptive, efficient or useful. QUALCOMM led the industry in producing innovations that provide or support almost every aspect of your smartphone’s capability. And Apple has been among the largest beneficiaries of our efforts in investments by been able to easily enter the smartphone space with little to know investments in the core technology. Apple has utilized our technology as the foundation for becoming the most profitable smartphone supplier in the world. Apple's own marketing statements recognize the value QUALCOMM technology contributes to its products. For example, Apple recently acknowledged that the roll-out of LTE networks in India will be the transition that unleashes the power and capability of the iPhone in India. As the leading innovator in 4G LTE, we agree. Touching briefly on Apple's complaints filed in San Diego and China, they claims that QUALCOMM should be required to license its cellular, standard essential patents for SEPs to modem suppliers, that even when licensing those patents at the device level, QUALCOMM should only be able to charge royalties on the price of the cellular modem chip inside the device. These positions, however, are inconsistent with long-standing industry practice, the IPR policies of the relevant standard setting bodies, the realities of licensing large portfolios of patents, and basic notions of efficiency fairness and economics. First, QUALCOMM and many other major patent holders have long-followed the practice of licensing portfolios of SEPs at the device level, including for 3G and LTE. There has been no sudden change in the law to make this practice improper. And it remains the most efficient and fair method of licensing. Second, neither QUALCOMM's licensing commitments nor panel requires QUALCOMM to license its SEPs at the component level, or charge royalties on the modem chip within a smartphone. There was an attempt by Apple and others to modify the IPR policy of SE, which governs licensing commitments for cellular SEPs to include these concepts. But that effort failed. Third, QUALCOMM has a vast technology patent portfolio that is broadly applicable to the technology and features implemented in smartphones. Focusing on just our cellular SEPs, which is a subset of our overall patent portfolio, only a small percentage of the claims in those patents are implemented entirely within the cellular modem chip. So, even if QUALCOMM were to license that subset of its cellular SEPs to a modem chip supplier. The device supplier using that chip would still need to take a license to the reminder of our cellular SEPs and other patents. Engaging in licensing at multiple levels create significant inefficiencies with no tangible benefits. And the established value for a portfolio of patents, like QUALCOMM’s, does not change by moving from device-level licensing to multi-level licensing at both the model chip and device levels. Finally, Apple claims the QUALCOMM’s licensing terms would require Apple to pay higher royalties whenever they add new features that they claim have nothing to do with QUALCOMM’s technology or intellectual property. As I just explained, QUALCOMM’s mobile technology enables the applications and functions that Apple highlights. In addition, it is well-know that QUALCOMM has per unit running royalty caps as part of its licensing program. This effectively results in licensees not paying running royalties as a percentage of the device price above a certain net selling price of any given device. Apple’s claim that royalties are uncapped is simply incorrect. Licensing at device level provides the licensee with the certainty that it has the rights needed to design, manufacture, and sell devices, regardless of which components within the phone, implement the patents, or whether the component supplier has a license for those patents. Charging royalties, as a percentage of the device price, is fair and consistent with the fact that lower price devices can be used and rely upon less of the licensed technology than the more expensive fully featured devices. The recent KFTC decision, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission compliant, and the filing of Apple’s complaints are not coincidental in terms of content and timing. Apple has been actively driving regulatory tax on QUALCOMM’s business and jurisdictions around the world, and misrepresenting facts and withholding information. Apple claims the QUALCOMM retaliated because Apple cooperated with government investigations. To be clear, we did no such thing. We simply objected to Apple making false and misleading statements and withholding information to motivate a tax against QUALCOMM. We welcome the opportunity to have Apple’s claims heard in court where we will be entitled the full discovery of Apple’s practices in a robust examination of the merits. We will prove that Apple’s irresponsible claims of extortion are false. With respect to the KFTC decision, in December, it announced that it intends to issue a corrective order and impose a fine. As we said last month, this is an unprecedented and unsupportable decision. Inconsistent with the facts in the law and representing a clear violation of due process rights under the Korea U.S. pre-trade agreement. We recently received a written decision from the KFTC, and we’ll be appealing the decision and seeking a stay in the sole high court, which we expect will rigorously analyze evidence and apply sound antitrust principles. It should be noted that the KFTC usually takes some number of months to go from a post-hearing decision to a written final order. Here the KFTC completed a very lengthy written decision in less than a month time, which is further evidence the KFTC hurry to judgment without regard to the merits of the case. With respect to the FTC complaint, filed last week, as we outlined in our press release, it was a split decision taken in the last days of the Obama administration and is very focused on Apple, which filed its related case just days later. It is based on a flawed legal theory, a lack of economic support, and significant misconceptions about the mobile technology industry. It is also very important to note that FTC commissioner, Maureen Ohlhausen, voted against filing the complaint, and went so far as to issue a strong defending statement. We look forward to vigorously defending our business. We have faced legal challenges to our business model over the years, given the powerful commercial interest that play. But there is clear evidence of vibrant competition across the mobile industry. And this environment is enabled by our broad pro-competitive licensing program. We expect and look forward to outcomes that confirm the valuable contributions to innovation and competition that our technologies bring. Apple's attack on QUALCOMM's business model is not only an attack on QUALCOMM, but also an attack on the smartphone competition that QUALCOMM's business model enables. Shifting gears, as Steve noted, QTL had a strong first fiscal quarter, as we continue to make very good progress signing new license agreements in China, including a complete resolution of our outstanding legal issues with Meizu. QTL revenues were $1.8 billion, up approximately 13% year-over-year, driven primarily by favorable trends in China including handset sales growth and licensing and compliance progress in the region, as well as strong growth of global sales by Chinese licensees. Total reported device sales in the fiscal first quarter were $62.9 billion, above the mid-point of our prior guidance. And we estimate that reported 3G/4G device shipments were 330 million units with an ASP of $189 at the mid-point. After the end of the first quarter, we completed licensing agreements with both Gionee and Meizu, and have now completed agreements with all of the top 10 Chinese OEMs according to IDC. To date, we have completed agreements with more than 120 manufacturers in China consistent with the NDRC terms. We estimate that we are now collecting royalties on approximately 80% of Chinese OEM global 3G/4G device sales. We remain focused on improved compliance and completing additional agreements, which could provide upside to our estimates. Turning to global 3G/4G device shipments. For calendar 2016, we estimate 1.56 billion to 1.7 billion devices were shipped, up 8% year-over-year at the mid-point and in line with our prior forecast. For calendar 2017, we continue to expect approximately 7% growth year-over-year with global 3G/4G device shipments of 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices, driven by demand in the emerging regions. We estimate the global handset ASP in fiscal 2016 was approximately $185, down approximately 6% year-over-year, consistent with our expectations and well below the 12% decline in fiscal 2015. We continue to expect that the annual decline in the global ASP for handsets shipped, during fiscal 2017, will further moderate as compared to fiscal 2016, despite FX headwinds. You may recall that a few years ago we forecast that global handset ASP would go through a period of accelerated erosion for a couple of years, and then those declines would moderate overtime. We are seeing those trends play-out as we predicted. We expect total reported device sales from licensees in the second fiscal quarter to be approximately $74 billion to $82 billion, up approximately 24% sequentially and 11% year-over-year at the mid-point, driven primarily by the busy holiday December quarter shipment activity, and reflective of increased licensing and compliance progress. In our data center business, we achieved a key milestone as we announced the commercial standpoint and conducted a live demonstration of the world’s 10 nanometer server processor. And early customer feedback and testing have been encouraging. As the first in the QUALCOMM Centriq product family, the QUALCOMM Centriq 2400 series has up to 48 cores, and is built on the most advanced 10 nanometer FinFET process technology. It features the QUALCOMM Falkor CPU, QUALCOMM data center technologies, custom RMVA compliance core, which is highly optimized to deliver both high performance and power efficiency, and designed to tackle the most common data center workloads. In China, we also have made great progress with our data center joint venture, which is now busy developing a customized server CPU product based on our technology and designs for the China market. Although, we have several ongoing challenges to our licensing program, we are confident in our positions. And we believe we will come out of these challenges stronger as a Company in the end as we have done many times in the past. That concludes my comments. And I will turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal first quarter results were in line with our outlook with revenues of $6 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.19, $0.02 above the midpoint of our guidance, driven primarily by performance in our licensing business. In QTL, revenues were $1.8 billion and total reported device sales by licensees were $62.9 billion, just above the midpoint of our guidance, driven by stronger ASPs in developed regions. The Q1 results for QTL exclude contributions from the recently signed licensed agreements with Meizu and Gionee, which expect to start benefitting -- we expect to start benefitting QTL in fiscal Q2. In QCT, MSM chip shipment were 217 million, modestly above the midpoint of our guidance range. Overall, performance was in line with expectations and we had strong contributions from our adjacent areas, including IoT, wireless networking, and auto. QCT’s earnings before tax was up 23% versus the first fiscal quarter of 2016, reflecting strong demand for our new products, growth and adjacencies, and an improved cost structure. QCT operating margin was approximately 18% for the quarter, up more than 300 basis points over the same period last year. For the Company, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses increased by less than 1% sequentially, modestly above our prior guidance. GAAP earnings included the accrual of the KFTCs approximately $868 million fine announced in late December, which is excluded from our non-GAAP results. The accrual impacted fiscal first quarter GAAP EPS by $0.49 per share, and raised our full year GAAP estimated tax rate by approximately 280 basis points to 22%. We plan to appeal this decision, but we are still required to pay the fine within 60 days of receiving the written order, which was received earlier this week. We returned $1.2 billion to stockholders in the quarter in the form of dividend and buybacks. As of the end of the fiscal first quarter, we had approximately $2.5 billion of our stock repurchase authorization remaining. Turning to our guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2017, our outlook reflects the seasonally stronger December quarter, 3G/4G device shipments for QTL, and the seasonally lower first calendar quarter MSM shipments for QCT, typical for this time of year. We are not forecasting any impact to revenues related to the dispute with Apple as we are continuing to meet their supply needs in good faith, and expect Apple will continue to meet its obligations. We have not reported any benefit to the P&L associated with non-payment of disputed amounts to-date or in our Q2 guidance. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $1.15 to $1.25 per share. We anticipate fiscal second quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up approximately 6% to 8% or $110 million at the mid-point sequentially, reflecting employee related costs that typically begin with the new calendar year, increased QTL compliance initiatives, and growing investments in data center and 5G. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $74 billion to $82 billion will be reported by our licensees in the March quarter, for shipments they made in the December quarter, up approximately 24% sequentially and 11% year-over-year at the mid-point. Our financial guidance includes an estimate for some catch-up licensing revenue, we expect to record in the quarter, including some benefit related to the recently concluded license agreements with Gionee and Meizu. In QCT, we expect MSM shipments of approximately 165 million to 185 million units lower sequentially, reflecting typical seasonal trends. Year-over-year differences also include lower modem sales, given second sourcing by a customer. We expect QCT revenue for MSM to be up modestly on a sequential basis in the second fiscal quarter on stronger product mix. We expect QCT's fiscal second quarter operating margin to be approximately 10% to 12%, reflecting significant year-over-year improvement, consistent with the product and cost elements that drove our fiscal first quarter performance, but down sequentially on seasonality. We expect to close the TDK joint venture later in this quarter, but are not including the expected impact in our guidance. We will update the go-forward implications of closing the joint venture on our next earnings call. Turning to our investment income, in anticipation of funding the acquisition of NXP, we will continue liquidating the longer duration risk assets in our treasury portfolio over the next couple of quarters, which we expect to result in lower yields and total returns, more in line with short duration high credit quality portfolios. The impact of these changes will primarily be seen in the second half of the fiscal year. We also plan to execute a meaningful portion of our acquisition related financing in the second half of fiscal 2017. As a result, we expect the combination of lower net investment income and higher interest expense to impact EPS by approximately $0.15 or approximately $300 million before tax in the second half of 2017 as compared to the levels we saw in the second half of fiscal 2016. Despite recent foreign currency headwinds, we continued to estimate mid single-digit percentage growth of global 3G/4G handset sales in fiscal 2017. We are estimating that FX headwinds of approximately 200 basis points based on current exchange rates will be partially offset by a better than expected outlook for global 3G/4G handset ASPs on a local currency basis. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.
John Sinnott:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Michael Walkley:
A couple of questions -- just here one on the business just in terms of seasonality of the business in to the March quarter, could you talk about some of the puts and takes with major customer in Korea’s new product timing ramp, seasonality for Apple and then what you’re seeing in the Chinese market in terms of your sequential MSM shipments. And then just a clarification for Derek and Don, as you look at the global dispute with Apple going on, it’s my belief that Apple actually paid you through some of their ODMs, such as Foxconn. Could you just walk us through that and maybe any accounting issues should these ODM decide not to pay on Apple’s behalf? Thank you.
Cristiano Amon:
Maybe, I’ll start addressing the Q2 seasonality on the chip business. So, I think Q2 MSM unit movement is largely seasonal. I think we see seasonality tied to two main effects; one, I think you have build on the Chinese customers in anticipation of the Chinese New Year. And I think they basically build and bleed as related Chinese New Year sales. We also saw -- in units in Q2 are dependent on timing on launching on Flagship devices within the quarter. And I think we’re going to see some of those clear to I would say, MCC announcement. So it’s going to be more on flagship device, it's going to more of a second of the year. And I think in terms of your question in China, market position, we’ll continue to see strong demand for industry products, leading products in China. I think we see good traction with the OEMs for MSM roadmap. So, it’s mostly a seasonality that we out-experienced in Q2.
Derek Aberle:
Yes to answer your question, so you’re right, Apple does not have a direct license with QUALCOMM today. And so the royalties on Apple products, they get paid to QUALCOMM or reported and paid by their contract manufacturers. So, although we do have a dispute now with Apple and they’re challenging some of the offers and some of our licensing terms. The contracts that we have in place with their suppliers remain valid and enforceable. And we would expect that our licensees will continue to comply with the terms of their agreements. And we would also hope and expect that Apple would not interfere with the terms of those agreements. But of course, we can’t fully control those actions. So, I guess, a little bit that we’re going to have to have a -- take a wait and see approach. We have no indication as we sit here today that our licensees will stop paying royalties. In the past, when we have had disputes with companies related to the royalties they own under an existing valid agreement, generally, those companies tended to report and pay royalties, even when we were in disputes like in arbitration. You might remember that was case with LG, not only have the recent arbitration with them also the case with Panasonic when we had a previous arbitration with them. So we’ll have to wait and see what happens, but that’s the indication we have today. I guess, the final pointy I’ll make is we don’t believe or expect that we will see an impact in the second quarter or second fiscal quarter from the dispute, and our guidance reflects that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona Jankowski:
Two questions for Derek. Apple claims that your NDRC rectification plan has never been adopted or endorsed by any agency or court. And they are challenging your royalty rate in China, and have now taken to court there. So can you clarify if your new license structure in China was in fact endorsed or not by the NDRC? And then the second question is, I don’t think you addressed Apple's charge that your chipset exclusivity agreement was evidence of abusive monopoly power. So I would love to hear your position there as well.
Derek Aberle:
So, in China, basically the way that the NDRC investigation was resolved, QUALCOMM -- the NDRC issued an order and QUALCOMM submitted what we called a rectification plan. And within the rectification plan, we basically committed to offer a new set of licensing terms for sales for use in China under our Chinese essential patents. And as part of that, the NDRC agreed, and this was main public I believe in the press release at a time that QUALCOMM’s rectification plan and the commitments that we made in that fully addressed the issues that were raised in the NDRC's order. So, although, I am not sure I would use the term endorsed, certainly, we believe the NDRC agreed that the rectification plan and the licensing terms are very consistent with addressing the concerns in their order. Of course, since then, we’ve gone out and negotiated and signed over 120 license agreements with terms that are consistent and reflective of the NDRC terms, and that was done under the supervision of the NDRC. So, we feel very confident that those terms are fair and reasonable, and we think it's a difficult position for Apple to claim that those terms are not fair. By the way, we have offered those same terms to Apple we did with all our other licensees, and they have refused to accept them.
Don Rosenberg:
With regard to your question about, so called, exclusivity deal, first of all, I think you’ve called us monopoly power and monopoly power. We don’t believe we have monopoly power in the chip market or any other market, and nor do we have an exclusivity arrangement. We have never prevented Apple or anybody else from buying from competitive chip makers. And in the Apple case, it's pretty clear since, as you know they’ve been buying from Intel fairly recently. So, it's a mischaracterization to call it an exclusive dealing arrangement. We have been defending that accusation in Europe for about, I don’t know, four years now, and it's not new. Although, now it's out in the open that Apple is the one who has challenged us on this. And we will continue to defend it both in Europe and in this case. But we are quite confident that it doesn’t fit the definition of an exclusivity deal here, and it doesn’t violate any competition loss.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
James Faucette:
Just one clarifying question, I think, Derek you’ve mentioned a couple of times that the Apple’s ODMs continue to comply. So, should we understand that according -- I mean your understanding of the contracts that they are paying, the contracted amounts in full? And then I guess for Derek and Don. How should we think about timeframes for both, for the KFTC and FTC case, the U.S. FTC cases, in terms of how long to go through the process of appeal or be a case itself here in the U. S.? And then Don you also just mentioned Europe. Where we are on that investigation, and any since of timing on when we may see further progress or the next steps there? Thank you very much.
Derek Aberle:
So, on the ODM contracts, I think the point to keep in mind is that, again Apple is not a direct licensee. And we have valid and enforceable contracts in place with their contract manufacturers who are our licensees, and have been paying royalties to us under those agreements. Again, we would expect and hope that our licensees will continue to comply with their agreements, and that Apple will not interfere with those contractual relationships that we have in place. And we have no indication, as we sit here today that the ODMs will stop paying or that Apple will interfere. But we obviously can’t control their actions down the road. So, we’ll have to see how that develops. As to our guidance in Q2, we believe at this point that it will not be an impact in terms of the revenue for QTL in Q2, which would be sales through the December quarter.
Don Rosenberg:
So, with respect to, I think I guess three questions; one, timing of KFTC timing of the FTC and then DigiComp status. The KFTC, as Derek indicated earlier, has now issued its order in that case, which means that the order is now effective as opposed to the press release that was issued less than a month ago. And we will now be able to seek an appeal at the sole High Court. And once we’ve start the appeal process, we will immediately seek a stay of the remedial release that was ordered by the KFTC. And we are obviously going to pretty strong arguments with respect to their conclusions, and hope that that will lead to a stay. And then the appeal process can take quite sometime in the sole High Court, and then if necessary, subsequent courts. The FTC case, which was filed in District Court in the Northern District of California, as you know, we’ve said very clearly we think that case was lacking in any real coherent theory of competitive harm didn’t, and all one needs to do is read the descending statement of commissioner Ohlhausen to get a good sense of how we object to that, and how she did. And I commented to you if you haven’t read it. We have two paths to follows. Obviously, once a new Federal Trade Commission is assembled, we will probably go back to the full commission, or at least when there is a majority of more than -- at least, there are more than two commissioners in place. And seek a re-evaluation of that late decision to file. And hopefully we might be able to get that withdrawn, if not, we will proceed with, as usual, defenses in the northern district and that will take some time obviously. With respect to DigiComp, we have two statements of objections, as you know, that we have been defending there, and I have no new news as to timing there. We are waiting at this point for the next step from DigiComp.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Long:
Two quick ones, if I could, or maybe not quick. George, you’ve mentioned, I think your language, is no benefit to P&L impact from non-paid amounts. Are you referring to what Apple called the rebates or the payments in their complaint? But either way, if you can just talk about changes in contracts, it sounds like nothing has hit the P&L yet. But where was that impacting, was that a COGS item in QCT, was it somehow in the QTL line? It would be helpful for us to understand where that is. And if there is more that’s not going out, at what point, would that become a benefit to the QUALCOMM model? And then Derek, I mean, you talked a lot about this thing about just raise in the commercial agreement. I’d just love your perspective on the other major patent holders, the Nokia's and Ericsson's that I think also license at the device level, but their rates wind-up, you’re five or 10 times higher than them. So, can you just talk a little about maybe your difference in materiality of your patent pool relative to other players that might result in higher rates than the others, which consider something lower to the FRAND? Thank you.
George Davis:
So, yes, there has been no P&L benefit from the payments to-date, they’ve been held on the balance sheet as current liabilities. As you know, the agreements are now subject to litigation. And so there is a limit to how much we can describe, where they might -- how things might be resolved in the future. But the amounts will remain on our balance sheet until the dispute is resolved. And then we’ll account for them in whatever way that the resolution has reached.
Derek Aberle:
So, I’ll try to keep this as concise as I can. If you think about the contributions that QUALCOMM has made to the technology-first and all the way back to 2G, but then moving on to 3G and 4G and now on to 5G, all the way along the path. We really have been, from our perspective, the leading contributor to the most valuable portions of the technology that are in those standards. And I think that has borne-out through the commercial agreements that we’ve been able to negotiate through arms length and fair negotiations over the years with 250 plus licenses. As Steve mentioned in his remarks, those aren’t agreements that are just 20 years old. Many of those have been renegotiated several times with the largest players over the year, and continually reaffirm the value of our portfolio. So, we believe our contributions, which are tend to be more focused on the device side and then the overall system as well, are just frankly more valuable than some of the other contributions that we see across the industry. And the second piece is you have to look at the circumstances under which the other companies negotiated their licenses. Obviously, when Nokia negotiated a number of their licenses, they had a significant device business, and they bargain for cross-licenses from other patent holders, which would have been offset and help establish the value of their portfolio. Same is true with Ericcson. So again, those companies both have made significant contributions. I am not doing anything to suggest, otherwise. But we believe that our contributions have been different in kind. And again, the market has valued those contributions through the agreements we have negotiated over the years.
Don Rosenberg:
I just want to add one or two points to Derek’s -- primarily as he said, we have enormous contributions. But the point that Derek was making needs to be hammered home, because people get confused. He was talking about cross-licenses, like the Samsung and Nokia. As you know, we are not in the device business. So, when we’re negotiating, we’re not seeking cross-licenses to be able to sell devices as they are. And so that’s a whole different dynamic in the negotiation, and people often get confused about that. And the other thing is, it’d be interesting for people to take a look at, there’s is lot in the record of this. Of all the losses that Apple has brought against its competitors and look at what they’ve sought in damages for just couple of patents, or less than a handful of patents. So, that’s an interesting comparison to their claiming in terms of the portfolio that we have.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Rod Hall:
I guess, well, I’ve got a bunch I’ll try to pull it down to just a couple. One is can you clarify whether Apple’s deal or Foxconn’s deal was set to expire at the end of 2016? We understand it probably was good. Could you just clarify, whether that is the case and in fact this is part of normal deal expiration and then negotiations and then through after that that’s my first question? Second question is on materiality of this. If they were to stop paying, we’ve done our own calculations with EPS impacts of around 30%, others have gotten around 25%. I wonder, could you guys just say whether those calculations are in the ballpark? And if not, give us any kind of idea of what sort of EPS impact we might expect if they were to stop payment? And then I guess my last question for you is, whether you had any direct discussion with Foxconn? Or the comments you’re making that they should continue to pay, strictly based on legal agreements. Are they based also on some discussions that you had with them, and that have been sued after the suits were filed? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Maybe I will take your first and last and last question, and then maybe George can jump in on the other one. So, we don’t have -- the agreements that are subject to the dispute with Apple are with Apple. We don’t have agreements with Foxconn. And I think it’s fair to assume that those agreements basically expired at the end of 2016. As to Foxconn, again, we don’t typically get into discussions we have with our licensees. What I can tell you is we have no indication and we do have frequent interactions with our licensees. We have no indication at this point that Foxconn or any of our other licensees will not comply with the terms of their agreement. So, that’s probably the best we can tell you at this point.
George Davis:
Rod on the materiality, clearly, Apple and Samsung are two very large customers. Apple being one and we’ve said that two largest, about 40% of revenue, but that includes both chip and licensing for both. The way we think about it is, one we’ve customers actually continue to pay even during disputes in many cases and also our ongoing relevant to customers across their business generally provides additional coverage there. But part of why we have a strong balance sheet is, so that when events like this happen, we are able to not only sustain ourselves and the investments that required but we’re able to fund acquisitions and other key initiatives of the Company. So, we feel we’re in a very strong position to continue to execute going forward and under almost any circumstance.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri:
I guess, my question, Derek, is really what does Apple want? Because if you look at the effective rate that they are paying, they pay basically on-cause and they pay the contract -- and the contract manufacturer pays you. If you do some math, they are sort in the low to mid-200 basis points as a percentage of COGS, which doesn’t seems to be that much different than what the 4G rate that you signed in China is. So, what do they want other than just getting a better deal? I guess, that’s my first question.
Derek Aberle:
Really, I mean, if you peal apart all of the arguments that Apple is making, as we said, we believe firmly that they are all without merit. In the end of the day, they essentially want to pay less for the technology that they are using. And it's pretty simple. And that’s really the motivation. And again, they wrap a lot of stuff around that, which really we think overtime, we will be able to clearly show is false. But in the end of the day, they want to get to a lower payment. And we think that’s not appropriate, given the value that we’ve established. We think they should pay a fair value, the fair value that we have established and our other licensees are paying. And that’s unfortunately why we’re in dispute.
Timothy Arcuri:
And then I guess just as a quick follow up Derek. What is the way to think about to sustained royalty rate? Does this change how we should think about it this and particularly what's happening with the KFTC as well? Does that change the 290 basis points longer term rate that we should think about? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
I think from our perspective, again, as Don mentioned, we are going to appeal and seek a stay of the decision in Korea. And in the end of the day if that decision even were to come into effect, it's not going to -- it does not invalidate the contracts that we have. It just set forward process for having us enter into renegotiations with some number of companies. And then if we can't resolve that, ultimately enter into some kind of dispute resolution. But we believe firmly that the contracts that we have in place are complaint with FRAND and consistent with our obligation. So we would expect, even if we had to go through that process that we would end up in the same place. So again, as we look at all these things, also the FTC, we believe, that we will be able to defend against that claim hopefully more quickly rather than over a longer period of time. And we ultimately believe we will prevail into seeding the arguments that are being brought by Apple. So, really none of this affects our long-term view for the growth of the business, or the 2.9%-ish effective rate that we’ve talked about over -- as kind of normalized rate over time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Rasgon:
I have one on Apple and then two quick operational ones. Just on Apple, the structure of your business, obviously, device level pricing. You’ve laid out I think a good case for why it's done this way. Has this model ever actually gone to an actual court in front of a judge and jury? And if so when, and what happened in that case? And if it hasn’t, can you please tell us if it never actually gone in front of -- in the court. In terms of operation, we just -- recently give us feeling for how much of the TRDS guidance next quarter is catch-up? And can you give us feeling for what’s going on with your inventories, why are they so high? Why do they go up so much into a quarter where chipsets are falling a lot?
Steve Mollenkopf:
So, Stacy, let me take your first question. Listen, as we noted in some of the comments, if you look at Apple’s complaint one of the things that they argue is that royalty should be based on just the base band chip within the phone or what they refer to as small and sellable unit. But that is -- there really is -- there is no legal precedent to suggest that when you’re licensing a portfolio of patents, such as a large portfolio of standard essential patents, that that legal document has any application. And there are numerous examples, reasonable royalties being set in court cases as a percentage of the end product. So, this is a well understood, I think, a well laid out concept. And it’s consistent with the way that, not only in QUALCOMM has licensed in our own industry for decades, but also virtually every other patent holder when they are seeking to collect royalties on their intellectual property. And I think, as Don mentioned, even when non-standard essential patents are asserted, royalties have been sought on a per unit basis far in excess of what QUALCOMM charges for a much larger technology contribution in the license. On the question on TRDS, I think, probably you have to -- the impact of the -- was that on Q2?
Derek Aberle:
If you think about on in terms of the impact of catch-up, the overwhelming growth is coming from the seasonal movements, and less than a third of the EPS impact is related to catch-up, which is pure revenue, pure profit.
Steve Mollenkopf:
I can address the inventory question. So, Stacy, I think inventory maybe three topics for you to think about it on the chip side. I think one is, as we said the Chinese New Year. So, I think given how we feel good about our position in China, it’s just providing increased assurance to supply and meeting customer demand with some of those products launch. The other thing to think about it is we had early in the year as normal with any new process know that we had as conservative planning on 10 nanometer ramp, we just had a little bit more parts of the predecessor in case of some of those things shift in into the quarter. And the last one, I think, you probably know there is cancellation of orders from a customer for one of this, or flagship products, last year they got cancelled. And I think endorsing will flow through normal inventory levels throughout the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder Garcha:
I have a couple of questions, on the Apple situation maybe for Derek. Apple has put in the lawsuit that they would be withholding payments to their contract OEMs. Now, I know your licensees are saying that they will continue to pay you, whether it's Honhi or whoever. But there must be a risk that that gets withheld from you at some point. Are you just saying that you don't see it right now? That's my first question. And my second question is that -- linked to Apple is that there was various points in their lawsuit that seemed to imply that they didn't have visibility over which intellectual property they had indirectly licensed. And so my question is are there vast parts of your portfolio, which they have not licensed? And what are you doing about maybe pursuing them? Or is that something you are considering right now? And my operational question, just on China, is what level of compliance that we got now over the market, like with the deals you’ve recently signed, what [indiscernible] [59.20] in the area? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
So, let me take each one of those. On the first question, basically, what Apple said in its complaint was that it would withhold payment to its contract manufactures of an amount equal to what it claims that we owe them. But it didn’t go beyond that. In other words they didn’t say that it was going to withhold payment for all royalties going forward. They just talked about the amount that was in dispute. And I think George covered off already how we’ve already deal with that in our P&Ls. But again on a going forward basis, these are valid and forcible contracts with our ODMs, there is no question there. And we would expect to get paid on a going forward basis, and we would also expect that Apple wouldn’t interfere with those contracts. And we have no indication as we sit here that either party will be either of those things, meaning withhold payment or interfere. But again, we’re going to have to take somewhat of a wait and see approach. This is a fluid situation. Complaint just came late last week, and we’re continuing to monitor the situation, and we’ll be updating you all as things progress. We have given Apple more than full visibility into the scope of our technology, and the scope of our patent portfolio. And they have tremendous amount of information from us in terms of what we expect them to pay for in terms of our technology position. There is, as I said before, the contracts that we have today are with their contract manufactures. Those agreements do not include licenses to all of our portfolio. But we both been -- we have been discussing a direct license with Apple as well, which would obviously include a broader portfolio license. So probably not going to comment today on our legal strategy as to what we may or may not do with the patents that are unlicensed to Apple or a contract manufacturers, but there are some patents in our portfolio that are outside those agreements. I mentioned in my remarks that with the further progress in China, we’re now in a position of collecting on about 80% of the Chinese OEM global device sales. You may remember back in February at the last Analyst Day, we talked about trying to get to about 75% collection with the key deals, and we’re now at 80% and hope to overtime take that number higher.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes, thank you. I just want to thank everyone for joining the call today. We obviously are working through our dispute here. We’ll get through it like we have in the past. I appreciate everybody’s patience here, but we're going to do the right thing for shareholders. I also want to recognize, and thank the employee base for their, really their strong work in not only repositioning the Company, but also delivering the results that we show today. So, thank you all and talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc. Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc. Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc. George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc. Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.
Analysts:
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co. Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Romit J. Shah - Nomura Securities International, Inc. Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Edward Snyder - Charter Equity Research Daniel Joseph Bartus - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Welcome to the QUALCOMM Fourth Quarter and 2016 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 2, 2016. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 95313544. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott please go ahead.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call on our investor relations website. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on the website later today. During this conference call we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. In addition, we will be making forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business, or industry trends, or our business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from QUALCOMM's Chief Executive Officer, Steven Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered strong results this quarter with better than expected earnings per share reflecting continued disciplined execution on the strategy we outlined last year. We had a very productive year. QCT delivered the improved operating margin target we set last year and QTL made additional progress on new license agreements in China. Last week, we announced our agreement to acquire an NXP, an established global leader in industrial grade computing, security, sensors, RF, and networking. The proposed NXP acquisition accelerates our strategy in growth areas with complementary and world-class technology, products, customer relationships, and strong sales channels across automotive, IoT, security and networking. Our strategy and disciplined execution has put us in an excellent position to maintain our leading position in mobile, and strengthen it into the next wave of growth. And we continue to invest in technology leadership just as we led each mobile technology transition from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G LTE, we are leading the way to 5G. Further, 5G will be the communications fabric for our emerging hyper-connected world. In our licensing business, we continue to execute well as we enable the industry to benefit from the tremendous opportunities around the world, including in China. We have now signed license agreements with nine of the top 10 largest Chinese OEMs according to calendar second quarter 2016 global IDC data. We expect to continue to sign additional licenses with Chinese OEMs and increase the level of compliance throughout fiscal 2017. Looking ahead we are very excited about the future. We have spent the last 30 years interconnecting people. We will spend the next 30 years interconnecting their worlds by building on our mobile technology leadership in advanced computing, connectivity and communications systems. Our priority growth segments, IoT, automotive and networking, are being transformed by mobile technologies and our proposed acquisition of NXP and our 5G leadership further accelerates our positions in these segments. As evidenced by our fiscal fourth quarter results, we continue to drive operational and financial discipline to execute on our strategy to create a competitive cost structure, and we continue to focus our investments in new growth areas. As we've executed this strategy to drive profitable growth, we've maintained our strong balance sheet and commitment to attractive capital returns, returning $6.9 billion to stockholders this fiscal year and $21 billion over the last two years. We believe we are on a path to build QUALCOMM into the semiconductor engine for the connected world. Turning to our QCT business, we continue to invest to lead the industry. In the premium tier, the Snapdragon 820 is in more than 150 smartphone and tablet designs, including iconic devices such as the Samsung Galaxy 7 and 7 Edge, the Xiaomi Mi 5, and the LG G5, and this past quarter we announced the follow-on Snapdragon 821 that was recently launched in Google's Pixel. In October, we hosted our annual 4G/5G Summit in Hong Kong, where we announced new products in the high and mid-tier segments with the Snapdragon 653, Snapdragon 626, and Snapdragon 427, designed for enhanced experiences and improved connectivity. All three processors feature the X9 LTE modem capable of 300 megabits per second on the downlink and 150 megabits per second on the uplink. We continue to extend our modem leadership across tiers and lead the industry to 5G. Our Snapdragon X12 LTE modem with features such as carrier aggregation, 4x4 MIMO, and 256-QAM modulation is capable of supporting 600 megabits per second on the downlink. Recently T-Mobile launched the first 4x4 MIMO technology service with the Galaxy S7 and S7 Edge and has publicly talked about plans for implementing 256-QAM in the near future. SKT and Telstra have launched similar capabilities, and we expect to soon see other operators do the same. In February, we announced our Snapdragon X16 modem, capable of gigabit class LTE speeds, and we recently announced the world's first gigabit class LTE mobile device and gigabit-ready network in collaboration with Telstra, Ericsson and NETGEAR. This modem also includes support for LAA, the global standard for deploying LTE in unlicensed spectrum. The FCC recently began issuing equipment authorizations for LAA, and we received the first. We also recently announced our first 5G modem, which will support early 5G trials and deployments. The Snapdragon X50 5G modem is designed to support peak download speeds of up to 5 gigabits per second and will initially support 28 gigahertz millimeter wave spectrum. The first 5G commercial products that will integrate the Snapdragon X55G modem are expected to be available during the first half of 2018. In addition, QUALCOMM is accelerating the path to 5GNR, the global 5G standard for a 5G new radio standardized by 3GPP. 5GNR is expected to not only enhance mobile broadband services but also enable conductivity and management for the Internet of Things and new types of mission-critical services. In January we announced our planned joint venture with TDK to enable delivery of RF front-end modules and RF filters into fully integrated systems for mobile devices and IoT. The joint venture will draw upon TDK's capabilities in micro-acoustic RF filtering, packaging and module integration technologies and our expertise in advanced wireless technologies to serve customers with leading-edge RF solutions into fully integrated systems. In our adjacent businesses, fiscal 2016 revenues were up more than 40% year-over-year driven by growth in auto, networking and the addition of the CSR business. For IoT, we are leveraging our leadership in both connectivity and computing to deliver platforms to help accelerate adoption across multiple device types. We now offer over 25 platforms that help manufacturers quickly and cost-effectively deliver IoT products including the Snapdragon VR 820 virtual reality reference platform, and a suite of connected camera solutions. Smartwatches using Snapdragon Wear processors continue to be launched or announced, and drones using our Snapdragon flight platform are already commercially available in the U.S. and China ahead of the holiday season. There is also an increasing trend to use LTE connectivity for IoT. Building off the 100 plus designs we announced in June using the MDM 9x07 modems, we have recent traction among many ecosystem players where the MDM9206 category MB1 modems featuring a purpose-built design for IoT, with lower power consumption and longer-range connectivity than previous LTE generations. We are broadening distribution of Snapdragon processors with two announced parts, the 410E and 600E, available globally by third-party distributors. In automotive, we expanded our design win momentum with global automakers across telematics, connectivity, and infotainment. We maintain our position as the leading supplier of modems for telematics, benefiting from increased cellular attach rates in cars and the transition to 4G LTE vehicle solutions. And with the pending addition of the NXP business, we will have the breadth of technology and products to capture even more of the opportunity in these rapidly growing adjacent areas. To summarize, fiscal 2016 has been a very productive year for QUALCOMM. Our strong results this quarter reflect the progress on our strategy and disciplined execution for technology leadership in mobile and new growth areas. We are excited about the future as we continue to build QUALCOMM as the semiconductor engine for the connected world. I would now like to turn the call over to Derek.
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. As Steve noted, QTL had a strong fiscal fourth quarter. Revenues were $1.9 billion, and total reported device sales were $74.2 billion, driven primarily by the conclusion of key license agreements in China as well as stronger than expected 3G/4G device ASPs. QTL revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter was higher than our prior guidance based on the timing of concluding a key new license agreement in China. Total reported device sales in the fiscal fourth quarter were also above our prior guidance with reported 3G/4G device shipments at a record 403 million units and ASPs at $184. QTL continues to make good progress in China, both in terms of signing new license agreements and collecting catch-up amounts for prior period sales. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we completed new agreements with both vivo and OPPO and recorded catch-up revenues related to prior quarter sales, including a significant amount for prior period 3-mode sales. The externally implied royalty rate in the fiscal fourth quarter was approximately 2.5%, reflecting the impact of the catch-up amounts in the quarter, which included significant royalties from 3-mode device shipments and other device shipments in China. In fiscal 2016, QTL revenues were $7.66 billion, with total reported device sales of $267.4 billion, reflecting continued handset growth, particularly at Chinese OEMs, and catch-up amounts for prior period sales. The externally implied royalty rate for fiscal 2016 was approximately 2.9%, as expected. Excluding catch-up amounts related to sales prior to fiscal 2016, the multi-year amortization from the agreement that expired after the first quarter of fiscal 2016, as well as the acceleration of the license fees for the terminated infrastructure agreement we previously disclosed, we estimate that fiscal year 2016 QTL revenues would have been approximately $7.2 billion. We estimate that we collected royalties on approximately 73% of both 3-mode and non 3-mode Chinese OEM global device sales in fiscal 2016. As discussed last quarter, we initiated litigation against Meizu in order to protect our rights, and equally importantly, to prevent Meizu from continuing to compete unfairly against our other licensees that are respectful of intellectual property rights and have entered into license agreements with QUALCOMM, consistent with resolution we reached with the NDRC. In June, we filed complaints against Meizu in the intellectual property courts in both Beijing and Shanghai, China, and last month we filed a complaint with the United States ITC, a patent infringement action in Germany and an infringement seizure action in France. Regarding the Korea Fair Trade Commission investigation of our licensing practices, we have submitted an extensive response to the case team's report and are currently in the hearing phase with the commissioners. We have been providing further responses to the case team's report. Turning to our expectations for global 3G/4G device shipments, in calendar 2016 we estimate 1.625 billion to 1.725 billion devices will be shipped, consistent with our prior forecast, with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 8% at the midpoint. We continue to see a strong 4G ramp in China as each of the operators pursues aggressive subscriber growth targets with their 4G plus service offerings, and design momentum continues to drive an increasing percentage of all mode devices across China. We estimate that the global ASP for handsets shipped during our fiscal 2016 was approximately $185, reflecting an annual decline of approximately 6%, which is in line with our prior forecast. As we expected, the year-over-year handset ASP erosion moderated significantly in fiscal 2016 to approximately half of the rate we experienced during fiscal 2015. Looking ahead to calendar 2017, we expect continued year-over-year 3G/4G device shipment growth. We estimate 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices will be shipped during calendar 2017, with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 7% at the midpoint. We forecast healthy 3G/4G handset shipment growth to continue in calendar 2017, driven primarily by emerging regions, particularly in India. We expect that the annual erosion in the ASP for handsets shipped during fiscal 2017 will further moderate as compared to fiscal 2016, driving mid single digit year-over-year global handset sales growth. We expect strong growth in 3G/4G connected IoT device shipments in calendar 2017, driven by the increasing demands of industrial and commercial applications within the smart cities, connected home, wearables and consumer electronic segments. Additionally, several of the world's largest cellular providers are expected to launch commercial operations of scalable narrowband LTE platforms in the coming year. To summarize, we are pleased with the progress we are making in China and continue to see favorable trends for global 3G/4G device sales. We're focused on concluding additional licensing agreements and improving compliance in fiscal 2017. That concludes my comments, and I will now turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon everyone. I will begin with comments on our fiscal fourth quarter and 2016 results, followed by our first fiscal quarter of 2017 guidance and some perspective on 2017 overall. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we delivered revenues of $6.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.28. Our performance was strong in both QTL and QCT relative to expectations. The incremental EPS results that were above the high end of our guidance range were largely driven by the new license agreements and related catch-up payments Derek described along with stronger-than-expected performance in our investment portfolio. In QTL, in addition to the new licenses and related catch-up, stronger-than-expected 3G/4G device ASPs also contributed to the above expectation TRDS results. QCT had revenues of $4.1 billion, reflecting MSM shipments modestly above the midpoint of expectations, driven by higher demand in thin modems and from OEMs in China. Revenue per MSM was modestly higher sequentially, primarily due to growth in adjacent businesses. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were down 3% sequentially, as expected, on cost controls and spending reductions under our strategic realignment plan. During the fiscal fourth quarter, we returned $1 billion to stockholders including approximately $780 million of dividends paid and $225 million in share repurchases. For the full year in 2016, we returned just over 100% of free cash flow to our stockholders on share repurchases of $3.9 billion and dividends of $3 billion. Our goals for fiscal 2016 were designed to improve our cost structure while repositioning the company to capture the next phase of growth. We set three primary guidance points for 2016 as a result. First, we committed to making significant progress on signing new licenses under the approved terms in China, and provided a revenue target range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion for QTL. We executed well on that plan by signing key license agreements with leading Chinese OEMs and delivered approximately $7.66 billion in revenue in the year. Second, we set an ambitious $1.4 billion spending reduction program which was comprised of $1.1 billion in savings and operating expenses, and engineering costs and COGS, and a $300 million reduction in the annual grant of share-based compensation. The program was fully realized by the end of fiscal 2016. A comparison of the program reductions against the SRP baseline is found on our website and our quarterly investor deck. Finally, we targeted to exit fiscal 2016 with a minimum of 16% or better operating margin in QCT for the fourth quarter, which was met as we reported 16.6% in that quarter. Let's now turn to our financial outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2017. We estimate fiscal fourth quarter revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.7 billion to $6.5 billion, down approximately 1% sequentially at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $1.12 to $1.22 per share, down 9% sequentially at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal first quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be approximately flat sequentially. In QTL, we expect total reported device sales of approximately $58 billion to $66 billion in the first quarter, down approximately 16% sequentially at the midpoint, primarily as a result of the timing of signing new license agreements and related catch-up payments recorded in the fiscal 2016 fourth quarter. In QCT, we expect approximately 205 million to 225 million MSM chip shipments for the fiscal first quarter, up 2% sequentially and reflecting seasonally strong demand, primarily from OEMs in China across a broad range of products. Share loss at a large thin modem customer is expected to moderate the normally strong seasonal MSM shipment trend in the December quarter. We expect QCTs operating margin percentage to be within approximately 100 basis points of the fourth fiscal quarter. Both of our businesses are seeing a modest impact in their outlook for the quarter as a result of a major customer's product launch challenges. Turning to 2017, we are providing selective guidance points for the year. We're estimating mid single digit percentage growth for global 3G/4G handset sales for fiscal 2017, and 7% growth at the midpoint in calendar year 2017 3G/4G global device shipments, as Derek described. Consistent with last fiscal year and aligned with our semiconductor and large-cap tech peers, we are not providing fiscal year revenue or earnings per share guidance. We estimate our non-GAAP fiscal 2017 tax rate to be approximately 18%. As we discussed last week when we announce the proposed acquisition of NXP, we are modifying our capital return program ahead of the expected close of the transaction later in calendar 2017. However, we remain firmly committed to our current dividend program and to continuing to grow our dividend in the future. We are also committed to share repurchases at a level that at least offsets dilution. Depending on the level of stock option exercises by our employees, we could return close to 75% of free cash flow to shareholders during fiscal 2017 as our outstanding stock options have approximately two years on average remaining on their lives. We expect to delever quickly after the NXP transaction is closed, providing a strong foundation for future capital returns and enabling us to approach our pre-transaction leverage ratios within two years of transaction close. That concludes my comments, I will now turn the call back to John.
John T. Sinnott - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. I guess I'll focus the question on the QCT segment with a nice increase in the revenue per MSM. Is this just mainly just stepping up a higher mix within the Chinese smartphone market? And then can you help us model into Q1 2017 given the Samsung Note recall and the better mix of the iPhone, how should we think about revenue per MSM on a sequential basis? Thank you.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Mike. It's George. I'll take this and then maybe Cristiano will want to jump in. So if you look at Q4, I would say you saw some benefit from mix for sure. I would also add that you saw the impact of the adjacent businesses, which had a strong quarter both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Going into Q1, it's definitely the fact that you're seeing real strength in the high and mid-tier that's helping offset what might be some of the other impacts that we're seeing in the quarter. And also you're seeing some lower low tier, which helps the overall picture there.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
And Mike, this is Cristiano Amon. Just an added comment, while we don't provide I think guidance for the year, I think within 2017 we expect to see the introduction of our new premium tier Snapdragon at 10 nanometer, the flagship. We also expect to continue to have growth in adjacent business, and that's going to have a positive impact and offset some seasonality we saw with OEM mix.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much. I also wanted ask a couple of questions related to QCT. Steve, you talked about the performance advantages of your modems, but yet in the last couple of years, we've seen a couple of the highest profile phones opt at least in some regions to use modems that were somewhat inferior in performance. Can you talk a bit about what you can do encourage and make sure that at least the best phones are using the best modems and really playing to your advantage? And then my second question is that, George, you talked a little bit about or your expectation that QCT margin should be within about 100 bps of what you put up for the September quarter in the December quarter. But how should we think about QCT margins on the more medium to long-term basis? Are we kind of at a new low or is this a new baseline? Or should we expect some volatility both up and down from current levels? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
James, this is Steve. I'll handle that, the first piece of it. I think it also depends on where you're looking the world. If you look in China, for example, I think the migration to uplink carrier aggregation in the 4G plus has really been helping the business actually. So I think that's an area where feature leadership in the modem has certainly been able to be highly correlated actually with success. But you're right. In some areas we have seen people either de-feature or go with a less advanced modem. Now the way we think about that is that the networks themselves are moving, and that's not a sustainable long-term position to be in. When we look at tear downs are or we look at comparisons between competitors' parts, the tear downs are very consistent with our view in terms of modem leadership. We are getting feedback from operators that they do want to upgrade their modems, and actually that includes their end market devices. The pressure to go to gigabit-class modems as well as 5G we think set up a good environment for us. But we do like the position of having modem leadership in the future, and we think we are going to be able to maintain that. We did, as you know, have to make some changes to our cost structure to make sure that we can sustain an environment where maybe that isn't always the case at any particular moment, but we still think that's strong strategic ground to hold.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
James, hi. It's George. On QCT margins, as we said, we expect to be within the 100 basis points of where we finished the year. And I think that's at a time, too, when we're dealing with the impact of the share loss at the modem customer. So I think that's a positive sign. It shows a couple things, one, the strength of our position in China and how that's been impacting us overall, the strength of the product portfolio coming out in the second half of the year of 2016. In terms of looking forward, clearly we'll be up year-over-year in our expectations. We haven't guided what we think that will be for margin, but there's still going to be seasonality. Obviously there is usually a big movement seasonally between our Q1 and Q2 for QCT and then strengthen the second half of the year. I don't know, Cristiano, was there anything else you wanted to add?
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
No, I just wanted to add that when we look for 2017, we feel comfortable right now with the product roadmap and traction across our broad customer base. I think China definitely want to highlight. I think we expect to repeat in 2017 the success we had in China in 2016. And we're going to be upgrading all tiers across thin modems, the premium tier MSM and the mid-tier MSM while we maintain the operating discipline implemented during strategic realignment plan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. I wanted to shift the focus to QTL. I think last quarter you had suggested about $400 million in catch-up royalties that you had expected, which was basically the delta between the $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion in your full year revenue guidance for QTL. And it looks like you recognized about half of that in Q4. So is it fair to assume that there's another $200 million of catch-ups left? Or is that amount larger? And by when do you expect to collect all of the catch-up payments?
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Simona, this is Derek. Actually what we said was last quarter in Q3 we had about – we had north of $400 million in out-of-period revenue in QTL. Part of that was from the resolution of our dispute with LG, and the other chunk of it, about $200 million-ish was from licensees that we were still negotiating with began reporting some of the royalties even ahead of signing agreements. That was all in Q3, and it was reflected in the $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion annual fiscal year guidance. When you fast-forward into Q4, we've got some additional catch-up payments, as I noted in my remarks, north of $200 million additional coming in in Q4, which gets us to – and if you might recall from last time, we guided some additional progress with license negotiations in Q4, but not all of it. And we kind of over-delivered on that in terms of concluding additional deals which brought us above our Q4 guide, and right around the midpoint of the annual fiscal year guidance.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
And I would just add, we had said going into the fourth quarter that there was more risk to meeting the midpoint of our guide because the market had been softer than we would have thought at the time when we came up with the $7.3 billion to the $8.0 billion, and so – but we felt we were making enough progress that we could make the guide that we did, and it turns out we made even more progress.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yes, hi guys. I kind of want to follow up on that last question. So your underlying royalty rate calculated, as I think Derek had called out, or one of you guys had called out, is 2.5%. And you're talking about a couple hundred million of catch-up payments. Can you give us any idea what the underlying royalty rate here was ex the catch-up payments? Are we talking about rates as we look forward that are similar to the average for the full year? Or are we talking about something else? Just to help us think about what the underlying rates look like here. And then the other question I had for you is related to the overall market demand. It's kind of hard because there's so many moving parts in terms of your TRDS, et cetera. It's a little bit hard to understand what's happening with the end market. So I just wonder if you could help us understand what you've seen in this last quarter with respect to end market demand and how you think that's trending as we look into next year. Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hey, Rod, this is Derek. So as we pointed out at the outset of the year, this year and probably even going forward into fiscal 2017, the externally implied rate is going to fluctuate quite a bit quarter-over-quarter. If you look back in Q3, we were north of 3.2%. Then this quarter it swings down to 2.5%. Really the main driver in this quarter was the amount of catch-up that came in within the quarter, both – all of it really coming from Chinese OEMs, a combination of folks reporting under the NDRC terms, but also a significant portion of that under the lower rates that apply to 3-mode. So we think that's largely sort of a historical thing. If you look at the projections for 3-mode in China, they are expected to be below 30% of the volume at China Mobile by the end of 2016, end of calendar 2016. So we think this is just going to be kind of the fluctuation that we pointed out would happen as we signed agreements and brought in catch-up. For the year, we came pretty close to the 2.9% longer-term kind of normalized rate we talked about in February at the Analyst Day. I expect we're going to see some continued fluctuations through 2017, but structurally and in terms of how we see the future unfolding, I think you can sort of think of that normalized 2.9% as a good longer-term metric. And we do expect next quarter will be up, because even if we conclude some additional deals that we're making progress on, the amount of the prior period catch-up will likely be smaller. And then on the end market, really, let me try to unpack it a couple of different ways. We're continuing to see good growth in units, so we're holding our guide for calendar 2016, which is about 8% year-over-year growth, and we put out a guide now for 2017, which is 7% year-over-year growth. And then the story that we really highlighted maybe three years ago is playing out very, very accurately to what we expected. The ASPs have continued to moderate in terms of erosion, and 2016 came in about where we called it at the beginning of the year, around 6% year-over-year erosion, and we expect that to further moderate into fiscal 2017. So one of the guideposts we set out in my remarks is if you look at the unit growth and the expected ASP erosion, we think the handset piece of the market in fiscal 2017 will grow about mid single digit. And then of course on top of that, you have the non-handset piece as well as some continued improvement that we expect to drive in compliance, which means we expect to grow the business, the QTL business, at or above the handset growth in the market.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. Derek, just a quick clarification and the question. On the catch-ups, I'm assuming you're saying that vivo and OPPO are things that have past. Those catch-ups are done, and anything next year in the future will be from new deals. And then I just wanted to talk about that 5% to 11% for this year. Thanks for the color on the 2017 number. But IDC and others, IDC I think just lowered their number for smartphones from 3% to 1.5% for the year. So to get to this 5% to 11% range, could you help us out a little bit? Is it more of the non-handset stuff? And in there that's driving it higher, do you think there's some misunderstanding about China? And related to that, the QTL long-term goal of $10 billion I think by fiscal 2020, it sounded like normalized was about $7.2 billion. So maybe just walk us through the unit ASP or new markets that would get us to that longer-term number. Thank you.
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Tim, this is Derek. Yeah, the catch-up that came in over the last two quarters related to the signing of new deals. That's basically largely baked and behind us. We have signed nine of the top 10 Chinese OEMs now, so great progress throughout the year. We do have another one that we're continuing to negotiate with and continuing to make progress, as well as we've noted the litigation against Meizu, which we are hopeful will drive to an agreement at some point. So there will be some continued fluctuation in the revenue in QTL based on catch-up, both on combination of new deals as well as driving compliance resolutions. But the ones that we've talked about from the announced deals are I think basically behind us. In terms of the market, I think if you look at the way the market has developed throughout the year, a number of industry analysts have been more pessimistic on handset growth than we were at the outset. But at least so far, I would say the market's trending more in line with our view than what they set out. China continues to be strong, and we saw another good quarter in the September quarter of 4G adds, and going forward we're expecting some pretty meaningful growth in 2017 coming from India and Southeast Asia, Middle East. So there's definitely big markets where we see the opportunity for a lot of continued growth. On top of that, we do see a lot of good trends with operators focusing more attention on things like narrowband LTE and more of the industrial, and in addition to consumer launches of IoT devices. So that will be a growth opportunity as well, but the handset, underlying handset growth that we called for 2017 mid single digit I think is something we feel very comfortable with. We're not going to update the sort of the $10 billion call that we gave in February, but guess what I can say there is in terms of the new agreements that we've signed, and the way that the market is playing out since February, there's nothing really that would change the long-term view for the business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead.
Romit J. Shah - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Yes, thank you. Just could you help us understand what's driving the moderation of ASPs in 2017, Derek? You mentioned a higher mix of emerging markets. And I would just think India, Southeast Asia would put more downward pressure on ASP. So if you could talk about that. And then the timing of the NXPI deal closer for late 2017 seems conservative when you consider just the complementary nature of the asset. And if we look at other deals in the space over the last year or two, they have been closing within eight to nine months. So I'm just wondering if there's potential for this deal to close earlier than what you guys communicated a week ago.
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
This is Derek. So on the first question, I don't think, it's really nothing new. I mean, we've been talking about the trends that we expected to play out in the handset market, like I said, for the last few years. We expected to see some pretty accelerated erosion in ASPs for a couple of years and then start to moderate. But what we are seeing in the emerging markets, although most of the growth going forward is coming from the emerging markets, it's the same trends that we had talked about we're continuing to see play out. The Chinese OEMs are continuing to kind of move up tier as they gain share. Cristiano mentioned some of that in response to an earlier question. That's really been a good story. A lot of growth in China and across the Chinese OEMs even outside of China, in the mid to high tier, that volume is not just coming in at the low tier. And part of that's being driven by the replacement rate story that we expected as people started to replace their phones and move up tier. We believe those trends are playing out and they'll continue to play out as we go through 2017. And interestingly, if you look at the reported ASP in the business for fiscal 2016, it was down less than the global. So even though we're pulling in some of the catch-up amounts from prior period, and some that stuff tended to be at the lower tiers, there has still been some good stability across the ASP picture.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
And let me comment on – this is George – I'll comment on the NXP closing date. We totally agree with your comment that this is a highly complementary deal, and the industrial logic for customers is quite attractive. So we didn't pick an outside date because we thought there would be a lot of regulatory push back. It was just designed to recognize that at the outside it would be by the end of the calendar year, but it could certainly be well before that depending on the regulatory reviews.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thank you. I guess I had two questions on QTL. First of all, Derek, I think you had said that the gap in terms of dollars between TDS and TRDS exiting fiscal 2016 would be less than 10%. Obviously that gap is coming down, but can you give us some milepost in terms of where that gap will be exiting fiscal 2017? Could it be only 5% for example?
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Tim, so we've given a couple of guideposts. One is that as we continue to negotiate and close what we call the key Chinese license agreements that were remaining, that if we could get those done, we believed we would be around 75% of their global sales that would be reported. We're not quite there yet. We've got a lot of good progress and certainly the largest player is done, but we're still in negotiations with one more of those. So as I'd mentioned in my remarks, we're kind of at the 73% mark now, and we need to make some more progress to get closer to the 75%. But I do think that we're on track to get there. And then from there, we'll have to drive some additional signings and some compliance improvements to get that number up. The 75% that we last gave, it sort of aligned with around a little less than 10% global sales that would be unreported. And so we don't, I'm really not in a position today to guide where we end up in 2017 other than to say we've been making steady progress, and we've got a number of initiatives underway in addition to just negotiating closing new agreements to drive the compliance in a more favorable picture for us. And we're going be working hard on that throughout fiscal 2017 and hope to continue to narrow that gap.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I had one and then a follow-up to it. The first, I guess Derek's comments on OPPO and vivo, what appeared to be catch-up in Q3, your comments that you just made seem to suggest that wasn't catch-up. That was actually run rate revenue they decided to report while they were negotiating. So can clarify, is that in fact true? Were OPPO and vivo actually in the run rate of revenues in Q3, starting in Q3 and obviously going forward from now? And then to that end, how do you guys, how to I get your QTL guidance for next quarter? At the midpoint, $62 billion, it's only up about 2% year-over-year, and a year ago you should have been having very serious collection issues in China, much better than you're having now, and yet you're only guiding it up 2% year-over-year. So I guess are those two issues related and can clarify both of those, please?
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Stacy, this is Derek. Yeah, so the catch-up situation is a bit complicated. I guess the best way I can lay it out for you is we got some catch-up in from the licensees that we closed on in Q4 into Q3 that were for prior-period sales, and they were not in the run rate in Q3. We closed the deals in Q4, which brought an additional catch-up for prior periods, but then also brought them into the run rate into Q4. So it's a blend of the two. Now George, if you want to take the next one.
George S. Davis - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah. In terms of trying to then guide to how you get to the outlook for Q1, which I believe was your second question, was it's really just fundamentally the step down in TRDS quarter-over-quarter. So it's, otherwise it's a fairly strong guide, and if you blend the two quarters, I think you're right on top of it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks very much. Are you still on track for closing the joint venture arrangement with TDK as expected? Does it look like this will be a March 2017 event?
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi. This is Cristiano. I think we are still on track. We see some of the regulatory approvals getting near completion, and we're on track to close this towards the end of the year, beginning of 2017.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Edward Snyder - Charter Equity Research:
Thanks a lot. You mentioned that some of the offset to your QCT business was because of share loss in thin modems, and you made comments on the premium that QUALCOMM has enjoyed and still enjoys among performance isn't as valued by some of your OEM customers as it has the past. Do you see that reverting back to the mean in any of the product roadmap in the next year or two that you're looking at? Because I know that a lot of these phones are white boarded three years in advance. It suggests that there will be an increase on a premium for performance at some of those OEMs. Or is this going to be the state of the industry for some time on both competitor solutions, say like Intel, but also in internal solutions? So I'd get a feeling for that. And then in terms of Note 7, I know the cancellation, how much of an impact did that have on the quarter? And I know there's probably some forecast for that into the March period. Is it all in now? Or do you think you will have a little bit more out in the first calendar quarter of next year? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Yeah. This is Steve. I'll take the first piece and maybe George can jump in on the end. What I meant to say earlier was I think there's maybe points in time where you can get away with not the leading quality or the leading edge feature set, but I don't think that's good strategic ground to hold. And our view of where our roadmap is going, the speed at which the industry is moving, meaning the networks that are in the operators – what their plans are to upgrade the networks, we feel very good about where our modem roadmap and modem business is going. I gave a couple of data points about people launching some of the more advanced either MIMO or 256-QAM networks. We see that happening. We see things like license assisted access happening, particularly in the United States, being a positive thing. The upgrade to 802.11ax, and the interconnection or the simultaneous operation between that and cellular being a good thing. And then just the general pressure on OEMs from other OEMs to use, let's say things like gigabit-class modems, we think is creating a positive design win, good feedback from our customers in terms of how that sets up. So the individual, how that relates to an individual model and such and timing of that I think is really a better question for the OEMs. But we like where the modem business is headed, particularly as 5G happens and things like narrowband IoT come into the networks as well. So I think that's where we are. Quickly, maybe on the Note 7 and other devices, I think we did comprehend a little bit of impact from that in the forward guide. I think you should think of that as if there's kind of a momentary hole in the market and we have a view as to how that's going to fill in. It may fill in maybe not perhaps in the entire first quarter, but it will fill in and we feel like we're well positioned for almost any scenario that you can think of. I mean a lot of different OEMs could fill it in, including just a product transition within the OEM that we're talking about. So we feel like we're well positioned in any of those scenarios, and we did comprehend some impact of that in the first quarter guide.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Daniel Joseph Bartus - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys, this is Dan Bartus on for Tal. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to understand the QCT opportunities for next year a little bit more. When we look to next year, the growth is mainly coming from India. So wondering if you guys could discuss the strategy there and how can you differentiate in such a low ASP market? And then just separately, I was wondering if the share loss at that key thin modem customer was greater than you guys had originally baked into your QCT planning and margin assumptions. Thanks.
Cristiano R. Amon - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Hi, Dan, it's Cristiano. Maybe let me just start talking about the growth. I think one of the things we had said priorly, that we have been quite successful with our product line in China and we see a lot of the Chinese OEMs, and particularly the market in China, you see some of the larger OEMs in China consolidating the volume. And they look to export that into growth opportunities in emerging markets. That is actually a differentiating position of QCT. So I think the more that the Chinese customer base export outside China, I think actually help our position both within China as well as the growth opportunities. Specifically to India, we're actually excited about it. There has been a very large-scale LTE launch with Reliance that is moving the market towards – from feature phone accelerated path towards smartphone with 4G and technology such as Voice-over-LTE. All of the concepts of all mode that has been successful in China can also be a driver in India. So I think that's how we feel good about basically ability to generate growth in those market as well. I think your second question, you want to take the second question?
Derek K. Aberle - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Sure, be happy to. So we had talked actually the previous quarter about the fact that we had contemplated the impact of second sourcing in our full year guidance in terms of where we thought QCT would come out on margin. And actually if you look back on the year, QCT not only exceeded the new margin target that we set, but they did it in a year where quite frankly the market itself was weaker, particularly in the thin modem area. And it required us to recapture an important slot in the premium tier, which they did, but also rolled out a series of products across the low, mid and high tiers where we saw much stronger traction in China than we expected going in. So I think overall, it's a very strong year and our planning assumptions with respect to the second sourcing were always a part of that.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - QUALCOMM, Inc.:
Thank you. I just want to thank everyone for attending the call today and reiterate how excited we are about the future. We're executing on our strategy to maintain our leadership in mobile and grow in adjacent opportunities with disciplined execution. With the pending additions of TDK JV and the NXP business, we are in an excellent position to grow our businesses. Lastly, I want to thank all of our employees for their hard work and dedication through this evolution of our business model. We look forward to the many exciting opportunities ahead. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - VP, IR Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - CFO, EVP Cristiano Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc., President, QCT
Analysts:
Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Tim long - BMO Capital Markets James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Rod Hall - JPMorgan Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company Blayne Curtis - Barclays Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Amit Shah - Nomura Tal Liani - Bank of America CJ Muse - Evercore ISI Tavis McCourt - Raymond James Brett Simpson - Arete Ed Snyder - Charter Equity Research David Wong - Wells Fargo
Presentation:
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 20, 2016. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 44801007. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you and good afternoon. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations Web site. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on the Web site later today. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our Web site. As well, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon everyone. We delivered strong results this quarter with revenues at the high end of our guidance range and earnings per share well above the high end of our guidance range on strong operating performance and progress in licensing. Our strong fiscal third quarter results reflect good execution across our businesses as we position the company for a return to growth. We are investing to expand our technology roadmap and lead in 5G, are pursuing new opportunities in fast growing areas that build on our core technologies and are committed to operational excellence. In QTL, we are pleased to report that we made good progress on the outstanding license negotiations this quarter and receive reports for a significant amount of prior period sales. This is a good indication of the progress we are making and we expect that momentum to continue into our fourth fiscal quarter. We now have more than 110 companies that have signed licenses consistent with the terms of the NDRC resolution. In QCT, the favorable demand trends for our new chipsets across the mid and high-end smartphone tier, especially with the top 10 vendors in China are helping to deliver improved financial performance. We are also seeing incremental demand for our lower tier chipsets in China versus our prior expectations driven in part by our differentiated all mode and modem leadership. In the premium tier, our Snapdragon 820 now has more than 150 premium smartphone and tablet designs and we have just announced the Snapdragon 821 which offers further performance enhancements and will help set a new bar for flagship smartphones increasingly popular mobile VR head mounted displays and other new devices. Our updated Snapdragon 600 and 400 product families are becoming the preferred choice for OEMs driving growth in the high and mid-tiers as users seek more performance and features in these segments. We continue to expand our presence in adjacent opportunities including automotive, networking, mobile compute and IOT. These industries are rapidly adopting smartphone technologies. Our leadership across 3G, 4G, 5G, WiFi, multimedia, graphics, processor and RF front-end technologies positions us well for these new growth areas. Collectively, the addressable opportunity for these adjacent areas is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% over the next five years from $12 billion to $29 billion according to a combination of third-party and internal estimates. In automotive, the pace of innovation is accelerating and we are seeing a strong alignment between the industry needs and Qualcomm's technologies. We continue to build momentum and strengthen our position through significant design wins at global automakers. This includes telematics where our modem leadership is well-recognized, infotainment with our Snapdragon automobile processors and in connectivity with our WiFi Bluetooth and location products. Our momentum in IOT continues as customers turn to our broad offering of IOT development platforms to accelerate their product innovation. At CompuTech, we introduced the Qualcomm's Snapdragon Wear 1100 processor for the fast growing targeted purpose wearable segments such as watches, fitness trackers, smart headsets and wearable accessories. Our Snapdragon flight platform as helped OEMs quickly commercialize new smaller, lighter drones leveraging Qualcomm's integrated SOC connectivity, GPS and drone software solutions. We are also extending our proven leadership in modem solutions into the Internet of Things with over 100 design from more than 60 manufacturers using our low power LTE IOT modems. In networking, we continue to drive the transition to the new Wave 2 11ac standard for WiFi networks and now have over 350 home and enterprise products either in production or design across mainstream and premium segments. We are on track to close our TDK JV by early calendar 2017 and to deliver our next generation Gallium arsenide and CMOS PAs in 2017. This will enable us to provide a comprehensive set of technologies and module capability for the RF front-end positioning us well for key industry trends, complexity increases within smartphones, the proliferation of radio bands in 4G and 5G and the growth of cellular in IOT. We are on track to deliver operating margins of 16% or better in QCT in the fourth fiscal quarter and it is important to note that our planning assumptions incorporates second sourcing at our large modem customer. Looking forward, our global scale technology leadership and differentiated chipset roadmap across multiple tiers and regions and dozens of spectrum bands continues to position us well for the future. Our modem expertise continues to lead the industry and as we did in both 3G and 4G, we are leading the world to 5G. 5G will make wireless broadband indistinguishable from wireline requiring devices with ultra high-speed, ultra low-latency and ultra reliable connectivity. The technology roadmap required for 5G will drive significant advancements in modem and front-end features, the technologies in which Qualcomm excels. Let me take a moment to review a few of our core strengths that will underscore our continued wireless broadband leadership. Our gigabit LTE leadership with the Snapdragon X16 modem will pave the way to 5G. Many of the technologies enabling gigabit LTE will be common to 5G, use of more antennas, use of multiple types of spectrum simultaneously, more sophisticated signal processing et cetera. And the mastery of these features in 4G will be essential to leadership in 5G. Many of these features are already being trialed or commercially deployed in phones using our Snapdragon 820 processor X12 LTE. Qualcomm also pioneered 802.11ad operating at 60 gigahertz, which is shipping into access points and computing devices today. The design and commercialization of this technology into smartphones is enabling the company to build leadership and expertise in the high-band known as millimeter wave to be deployed broadly in 5G. We are also designing a new OFDM based 5G air interface that will not only enhance mobile broadband services but also enable connectivity and management for the Internet of Things and new types of mission critical services. Our 5G design is intended to get the most out of the wide array of spectrum available across regulatory paradigms in bands from low bands below 1-gigahertz to mid bands from 1-gigahertz to 6-gigahertz to millimeter wave. 5G devices will bring the next level of convergence with the ability to work on licensed and shared spectrum concurrently. We are very pleased that regulators around the world are beginning to allocate spectrum for 5G consistent with our 5G design and development efforts. Recent spectrum regulatory decisions and movement in the U.S. and Europe combined with progress on the spectrum regulatory front in China, Japan and Korea are good indications that the world is preparing for 5G. We recently announced our new 5G prototype system and trial platform operating in spectrum band below 6-gigahertz and showcasing multi gigabit throughput at low latency. We demonstrated a prototype system at Mobile World Congress Shanghai in collaboration with China Mobile. The new prototype adds to our existing 5G millimeter wave prototype system operating at the 28-gigahertz millimeter wave band and is capable of robust mobile broadband communications in non-line-of-sight environments. We are utilizing these prototype systems to test and demonstrate our innovative 5G designs to drive 3GPP, 5G, new radio standardization and enable timely 5G NR trials in anticipation of future commercial network launches. To summarize, fiscal 2016 has been a transition year for Qualcomm, which has played out largely as expected. Our strong results this quarter reflect a good progress, we have made positioning the company for improved financial performance and continued technology leadership in mobile and the many exciting new industries and product enabled by our smartphone technologies. We are continuing to make progress in our licensing business and expect that momentum to continue positioning us well for the future. I will now turn the call over to Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. As Steve noted, we made significant progress in the licensing business this quarter both in terms of new agreement signed and catch up amounts reported. As a result, QTL had a very strong fiscal third quarter with total reported device sales of approximately $62.6 billion and revenues of $2 billion driven primarily by the catch-up reporting of certain prior period sales and revenue as well as stronger than expected 3G, 4G device ASPs. As a reminder, as a result of the resolution of our dispute with LG in April, in the fiscal third quarter we recognized over $200 million in revenue for sales reported during the prior two fiscal quarters and resumed to recognizing quarterly LG revenues for sales reported in the third quarter consistent with our prior guidance. We continued to make steady progress in China executing new license agreements. In addition, we are still actively negotiating with a small number of the key remaining Chinese OEMs and making progress in those discussions. Based on the progress we are making, those licensees agreed to report and pay a portion of the sales and royalties they have been withholding while we continued to negotiate their new agreements. These amounts plus additional catch-up payments we received from other licensees during the quarter resulted in more than $200 million in revenues in QTL for the third fiscal quarter related to prior period activity. QTL revenue for the quarter therefore included a total of more than $400 million in revenue related to prior period activity as a result of the LG resolution and these catch-up payments. As we have said in the past, we are prepared to take action against OEMs that are not negotiating in good faith to conclude license agreements or underreporting to royalties they owe us. Consistent with that approach in June, we filed complaints against Meizu in the Intellectual Property Courts in both Beijing and Shanghai, China. Regrettably, we have had to turn to litigation against Meizu in order to protect our rights and importantly to maintain fairness in a level playing field for the companies that are respectful of intellectual property rights and have entered into license agreements in accordance with the resolution reached by Qualcomm and the NDRC. We are also continuing to work hard on a number of fronts to improve compliance. We are actively implementing our compliance plans and expect them to deliver a meaningful improvements over time. Looking ahead, we continue to estimate calendar 2016 global 3G, 4G device shipments of 1.625 to 1.725 billion devices with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 8% at the mid-point. We continue to see a strong 4G ramp in China as each of the operators pursues aggressive subscribe growth targets with their 4G plus service offerings and design momentum continues to move rapidly towards all mode devices across China. Other emerging regions continue to be negatively impacted by macroeconomic headwinds. Outside of handsets, growth in automotive telematics is offsetting weaker tablet volumes. We continue to expect low single-digit growth in global 3G, 4G device sales in fiscal 2016 consistent with our prior guidance reflecting strong unit growth partially offset by ASP declines that are consistent with our prior expectations. We continue to expect that the rate at which handset ASPs will decline during the fiscal 2016 will be about 50% of the rate of decline experienced in fiscal 2015. In terms of the outlook for QTL for the fiscal year, we now expect revenue to be between $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion. We have narrowed the range to align with our current view of expected progress in China for the remainder of the fiscal year including increased confidence that we will conclude additional agreements with some other remaining key OEMs within the fiscal year. Although, we expect to continue to see quarterly fluctuations in the externally implied royalty rate for the reasons we have previously explained, we expect the rate for fiscal 2016 to be in the range of 2.9%. With respect to the Korean Fair Trade Commission investigation of our licensing practices, we have now submitted an extensive response to the case teams report and have entered the hearing phase with the commissioners. During this phase, the commission will conduct a series of hearings over the next few months during which we expect to have the opportunity to further present our response. The first hearing was held earlier today in Korea in contrary to the recent press reports, the commission has not reached a decision in our case. In conclusion, we continue to make good progress in China. We are keenly focused on concluding agreements with the remaining OEMs as well as improving compliance and are working towards continued progress in the fourth fiscal quarter. That concludes my comments. And I will now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to report a very strong fiscal third quarter. Revenues were $6 billion up 4% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.16 up 17% year-over-year. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $31 billion reflecting strong operating cash flow of approximately 30% of revenue in the quarter and the acceleration of our share repurchase activity into the first half of the year. Through our fiscal third quarter, we have returned approximately 120% of free cash flow or more than $5.9 billion to stockholders this fiscal year including the completion of the remainder of our 10 billion stock repurchase commitments. And we are on track to achieve our targeted 75% return to cash flow in fiscal 2016. Our third quarter results reflect both our commitment to operational efficiency and the strong performance of our operating businesses. Performance above the high-end of our guidance range primarily came from continued progress in our licensing business in China. In QCT, MSM shipments were $201 million approximately 9% above the mid-point of our prior guidance range reflecting greater than expected demand in the low-tier particularly in China. QCT operating margin had 9.5% was inline with our prior expectations on higher volume and cost reductions with increased low-tier demand impacting our product mix and revenue per MSM versus expectations. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses overall were lower than forecast decreasing 2% sequentially reflecting continued cost initiatives. Our non-GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 19% up modestly against expectations as a result of a higher mix of licensing revenues in the quarter. We continued to expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 18% for fiscal 2016. Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion up approximately 6% year-over-year at the mid-point. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal fourth quarter to be approximately $1.05 to $1.15 per share up approximately 21% year-over-year at the mid-point. We expect fiscal fourth quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be down approximately 2% to 4% sequentially reflecting further strategic realignment plan cost actions particularly in QCT. In QTL, as Derek mentioned our fiscal year revenue outlook is $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion and we believe our recent licensing progress will continue throughout the remainder of the year. Aligned with that view, our revenue guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter assumes some additional progress in China. However, our fourth quarter guidance does not include the full potential benefit from the completion of all license agreements under negotiation and is consistent with the low-end of the QTL range for the full fiscal year. For the fiscal fourth quarter, we estimate total reported device sales of between $57 billion and $65 billion. Our TRDS forecast reflects our estimate that global device sales will be lower year-over-year reflecting a decline in the premium tier at a large OEM partially offset by the impact of closing new licensing agreements and the resulting catch-up we expect to receive. Like our revenue guidance, this forecast includes the impact of closing some but not all of the remaining agreements in China. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 195 million to 215 million units and operating margin to improve sequentially to 16% or better consistent with our prior operating margin target. Our QCT operating margin forecast reflects the strength of our new product cycle, our cost actions throughout the year as well as strong demand from mid and high-tier devices. Now, turning to fiscal 2016. We remain on track to meet the $1.4 billion reduction in spending under our strategic realignment plan and we continue to expect more than $700 million of savings in fiscal 2016 relative to the SRP baseline, ahead of our original $600 million target. A summary of the savings program is included in the Investor presentation for this call on our Web site. We continue to expect fiscal 2015 non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be down approximately 2% to 4% year-over-year, which includes the full year impact of acquisition related increases of approximately 5%. Adjusting for M&A, estimated spending in these areas will be down 7% to 9% year-over-year. We are committed to maintaining a strong discipline of cost management, while remaining extremely focused on the important role Qualcomm will play as the leading innovator in mobile technology solutions. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona Jankowski:
Hi. Thank you for breaking out the benefit to QTL from the China catch-up royalties. Would you be able to also breakout the contribution to units and the level of ASPs for that catch up? And then, is there much left in terms of the already signed agreements that is yet to be recognized?
Derek Aberle:
Simona, hey, it's Derek. Yes, I think we are not in a position today to breakout the split of TRDS kind of units in ASP that came in through the catch-up payments in Q3. I think, if you look at it, you sort of look at it for the year, you will be able to see that we are sort of making progress and closing the gap and if we continue to make progress and close these key remaining agreements. We talked at the Analyst Day of being in a position to capture about 75% of the global sales from the Chinese OEMs. I think we'll actually sort of on an exit rate basis, if we can close these remaining deals, it will be better than that. So I think it's just a continued story of progress and you are starting to see the results were all through this quarter.
George Davis:
Simona in terms of the upside to guidance as we indicated our Q4 guidance is really set at the low-end of the full year range for QTL. So the upside would be the agreements in addition to the ones that we expect to sign that we put into the guidance. There is still $400 million of revenue upside that is possible for the quarter and not in our guidance.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Mike Walkley:
Hi. Thank you. Derek just another question on QTL, with the progress in China certainly encouraging and as you continue to make progress with a few of these other large Chinese OEMs, how should we maybe think about the exit rate basis in terms of maybe units you believe are being underreported entering fiscal 2017, do you think it's still more than maybe 10% of the market under reporting or are you getting close to those levels? And then, just overall high level how is this progress as you exit the year relative to your expectations towards your longer term $10 billion in QTL revenue by 2020? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Mike, this is Derek. So I think the way to think about it is sort of if I bridge back to the answer I was just giving to Simona's question we continue to believe that if we can close these remaining agreements that the exit rate actually on the China portion of the global sales -- Chinese OEM portion will now be north of 75%. And I think, if you look that also in terms of then the global sales, it would be less than 10% on a run rate basis going forward. And what we have seen actually is, some of these key Chinese OEMs have actually been gaining share. And so we will get an even larger benefit on a run rate basis, if we can close out the remaining couple of agreements we have here.
Warren Kneeshaw:
The second question.
Derek Aberle:
Oh, yes. And I would say, basically we are -- I think the progress we are making in China and the view in the market we see is consistent with what we talked about in terms of the $10 billion target.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Long:
Thank you. Just sticking on the same topic, it's hard to beat it too much. It looks like Derek, the markets units were only down about 4% sequential, so I'm assuming that's some prior period catch-up. So, if we were to normalize the full year 8% growth, would that be lower because of those aren't in there and maybe if you could just give us a sense, I don't know if that's breaking out those numbers too much? And then, just on the chip side, I think I just wanted to hit on the gross margin. I guess, was it mix that caused it to be down even though the ASPs were up in the quarter and what's kind of the outlook for the next few quarters on the gross margin line for QCT? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Hi, Tim. It's Derek. So on the first question, yes, the units in Q3 would have included some amount of catch up which rolled into the catch up number that we talked about. If we look back, you will see we have effectively held our unit call for calendar 2016, which is about as you said about an 8% year-over-year growth, obviously that has quarterly fluctuation given seasonality and other variability. I would say largely from a market standpoint things are tracking in line with what we would have expected last quarter. We talked about China being stronger, some softness in the premium tier and a little bit of weakness in some of the emerging markets but the net-net still giving us confidence that the 8% forecast was good. You may have seen China reported numbers out recently probably stronger than most people had expected and largely in line with what we thought would happen there.
George Davis:
Hi, Tim. It's George. I think we don't break out the gross margin, but I think your point is on revenue per MSM. And yes, it was a little soft during the quarter than we had expected on mix. Obviously, the unit story was quite good and in particular we saw a lot of strength in the low-tier. Gross margin is going to be a good story for us as you look into the end of the year, you are going to see the impact of not only a very strong set of new products starting to get the lift in the marketplace in Q4. But, the adjacent business continues to do well, our adjacent businesses are continuing to do well. And of course, we reiterated the 16% op margin for QCT and that being said, it will also benefit from the OpEx actions that we are taking in the quarter as well. So, good story overall for QCT.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
James Faucette:
Thanks. I just wanted to ask a follow-up question as it relates to the collection that you guys are doing or the payments et cetera. Derek maybe you can just talk a little bit about how we should think both timing, but also what maybe the long-term implications are. I guess just a little more color on anything that you can say as to why the negotiations with [indiscernible] the outstanding licensees are still there? And at what point do you feel like you end up having to do something along the lines of filings through with Meizu? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Yes, James. It's Derek. So I think the way to look at it is, we have this small group of licensees that were withholding their reports and payments while they continue to negotiate. And that was inconsistent with what a lot of the other companies did. And I think the way to look at that is, given the progress that we have made within the last quarter with those companies towards closing agreements which aren't yet closed, but we are making progress towards that and sort of put them in a position to feel the right thing to do was to go ahead and report a portion of the prior period sales which is what roll through in the quarter. Taking that up a level, as I said, for the year at the Analyst Day we talked about, if we could close these key deals, we would basically be sort of on an run rate basis collecting on about 75% of the total sales by the Chinese OEMs, and then, there would be additional compliance work we would need to do to kind of close the gap on the remainder. I would say now as we look at that picture, if we accomplish the same goal this year meaning that closing the agreements, the exit rate will actually be north of that 75%. And then, of course, we are already actively moving on a number of fronts to improve the compliance in other areas. So, I think that's largely tracking in line with our plans and as you can see if there are companies that we believe we are not making progress with and we won't conclude agreements with because they are not negotiating in good faith we will take action against them and that's what we did against Meizu. We don't feel like at the moment with other companies, but of course that could change in the future. Our current view though is we are making progress and we have higher confidence now than we did a quarter ago that we will be able to close those deals within the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder Garcha:
Thanks. Just a couple of quick ones. Derek for you, just a clarification on the licensing side. You said that it was $400 million worth of catch-up payments from Samsung and from the Chinese OEMs. There is going to be some catch-up payments already included in your Q4 guidance and [indiscernible] for QTL, I assume and eventually those catch-up payments tail-off to zero because it's an ongoing run rate. I just want to clarify if that's the way it works. And the second part of the QTL, is that, this move from 75% compliance to move towards the 700% is it, as you exit this year, is that more about getting your existing licensees are reporting to 100% comply under all of their units or is it signing are still further you made your vendors? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Kulbinder, it's Derek here. On the -- we basically said the combined catch-up amounts across is actually LG not Samsung. LG and the companies that then reported some prior period activity was in the quarter north of $400 million. If you think about Q4 as George mentioned, the way we looked at that kind of throughout the year we had a little bit of a difference in the way we treated guidance meaning the QTL full year revenue guidance as always included revenues associated with closing new deals. But that, when we were just guiding one quarter out, we have been cautious and not including the benefit of what would be required to close those deals within the quarter. Now, as we get towards the end of the year with just Q4 remaining and we look at the progress we are making, we have effectively narrowed the range brought up the low-end of the range. And as George said, while we have included some amount of benefit from closing new deals but not the full benefit. So what's rolling through our Q4 guidance is really consistent with the low-end of the full year QTL revenue guidance. And then, there is incremental revenue that would come from closing additional deals in the quarter which we -- we believe is possible which is why we have continued to have a higher range for the full year on QTL. Going forward, I think the way to think about the run rate is, again, if we get that done, we will be north of probably 75% of the Chinese OEM sales on a run rate basis, which would mean sort of the under reporting percentage of total global sales would be less than 10%. And then, to really close the gap on that is going to be a combination of -- I would say signing up some of the smaller players as well as obviously we have the dispute with Meizu. And then, driving higher compliance from some of the companies that are already licensed and just not reporting their full sales. So it will be a kind of a combination of a few different elements there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod Hall:
Yes, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to come back to QTL in the mid-point. Your mid-point guidance in QTL is down $0.5 billion and so I get all the commentary around the puts and takes. But, I'm just trying to understand what caused that shift down in the mid-point, is it demand, is it ASPs, is it the catch-up payments for quite as much as you thought? And then, can you help me understand what's going on there? And then, I have one follow-up on that was well.
George Davis:
Hi, Rod. It's George. So, yes, the mid-point, if you do the 73 to the 28 versus 740, yes, it's down a 500. I wouldn't read anything into it. There is a number of agreements that were put within that space. We have tired to every quarter give an update on where we think the range is going. And even last quarter we said it looks because of the market and some other issues, the range is probably had a little more downside, but we held the low-end of the range based on progress. So, we are constantly adjusting to make sure that we reflect what's possible. You've also seen us take some litigation action which actually puts things outside the -- potentially outside the window for the year. But, there is a number of factors that went into the range. And so, I wouldn't over read a $50 million change. And again, we are guiding to the low-end of the range, which means we have significant upside to that, if we are able to sign more agreements.
Rod Hall:
Okay. And then, I just also wanted to ask you the 16% exit rate, you said that's now -- it sounds like a minimum and I just wonder how conservative it is that margin exit rate now that you know more about market share changes et cetera in the back end of this year. Can you just comment a little bit about, do you feel that's a very conservative number now or is it as conservative as when you started out with that 16% exit rate, just give us some idea there.
George Davis:
We are pleased with what we have seen in the marketplace. As you know, the year probably overall has been a little softer in the premium tier than we would have thought. So, but we have also made good progress on both market share and on the -- our cost efforts relative to expectations going in. So, I think overall, we feel comfortable reiterating but I really don't want to characterize it beyond that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thank you. I had two questions. I guess the first one, Derek, I'm still trying to maybe get at what some people are asking about the pro forma royalty rate. So maybe can you -- maybe pro forma out for us, what the royalty rate was net off all the catch-up payments in June? And then, maybe what the pro forma royalty rate would be for September as well?
Derek Aberle:
Yes, Tim. This is Derek. I think the way to think about it is, we -- on my script we included a statement for the full fiscal year that we believe for the full year will be around the 2.9% level. I think if you try to kind of normalize Q3 to adjust for the prior period activity things like the LG resolution which pushed the rate up. I think it would be in that range as well for the quarter. Q4, we believe will be down sequentially but it's really hard to give you a forecast on that just because it will be fairly dependent on -- how many of the deals we get resolved within the quarter and how much catch-up comes in as you might remember some of the guys that were still negotiating with were larger -- historically larger three-mode players and the rate on three-mode devices is lower than on other devices. And so that could have within the quarter when that catch-up comes in could have a dilutive effect. But, we are still comfortable with the longer term view on the rate that we talked about in February and also for the year that I mentioned today.
Timothy Arcuri:
Got it. Thanks. And then, I guess just my follow-up is really for Steve and the team. Can you talk a little more about 5G and you guys were talking more about this every call. So, I guess the question is really about timing and your position in the standards and sort of when that will be finalized and what's your IP position will be for 5G relative to what it has been for 3G, 4G? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. Time, its Steve. In general, we are obviously trying to drive 5G as quickly as we can. It's an area which we think to be a strong player in 5G, you have to be a strong player in 4G, 3G and WiFi and consequentially we think that we will maintain a very strong IP position moving forward. The standards bodies are working on that right now. So, I think we have a lot of visibility into the strength of our submissions as well as to how the industry is unfolding. I think in general, if you'd have asked me that question, a year ago, I would have said that it would have happened closer to 2020. Certainly over the last year and accelerating here over the last quarter there has been a real pull to push that in or to pull that in closer to 2018/2019 timeframe depending on what the deployment is. And of course, we are going to support that with our products and with our standards submissions and all the R&D that we are doing. And as you would expect we are accelerating as well as protecting that R&D as we are repositioning the company for growth. And I think it will be a good story for Qualcomm here over the next decade.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Blayne Curtis:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple on QCT, you talked about outside from the China market, it's been a lot of concerns about maybe some overbuilds, you have the best perspective knowing what you shift in versus what selling through. Just your perspective on China maybe seasonality as you get into December. And then, you said, you factored in some second sourcing out of marquee phone, do you think that share that you will have ultimately on this generation is sustainable?
Cristiano Amon:
Okay. This is Cristiano. Thank you for your question. First, maybe addressing China, I think as we said in addition to seeing stronger demand for high and mid and even low tier units and then it also give us a higher unit in the quarter. I think we are seeing significant traction within our new product family not only the Snapdragon 800 but more important the 600 and 400 tiers. And we see that market in China is moving up, we spoke earlier in other calls about things such as all mode and care aggregation. We see that is materializing all-mode is becoming the preferred configuration which is a multi-mode solution across all the carriers in China and I think here, China exactly moving faster to higher speeds. So we see that exactly a positive trend for Qualcomm in particular as the market in China moving up. With regards to how we view about second sourcing and one large customer, I think we said very, very clear that's our planning assumption and we stayed within -- driving towards to meet our commitments in 2016 and I think that has no impact in our 16% projection of operating margin for QCT.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I was wondering if you could give us an indication of where you saw a revenue per MSM trending in Q4? And secondly, I wanted to get your thoughts on operating margins as we go into next year, do you think 15% in Q4 will be the trough for operating margins as we go through 2017, they should never drop below that?
George Davis:
Hey, Stacy. It's George. Again, we would expect to see strong revenue per MSM again in the fourth quarter and so not giving a specific guide. But, if you look at the product mix and you look at where we are seeing an up tick and the positioning of our new products, it's all consistent with improved revenue per MSM, also of course the adjacent businesses contribute to that as well as they did in the third quarter. We are not going to guide 2017 at this time and but we are pleased with the progress that we are making on the cost program and we think that will certainly carry into 2017 but we are not going to forecast margin at this time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Amit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead.
Amit Shah:
Yes. Thank you. Just on the second sourcing with the key customer, just wondering if you guys can give us some feel for whether you were able to obtain majority share and looking into next year, you talked a little bit about gigabit LTE that you are going to have with the X16 Snapdragon. Is that an important factor as you all think about design wins in 2017, I think the feedback from some of the competition is that while it's ahead, 1-gigabit download this will be fairly rare in practice and not really a variable when it comes to design wins.
Cristiano Amon:
Hey, Amit. Thanks for your question. This is Cristiano. So I will try to -- it's very difficult for us to comment specifically about our customer plans with regards to volume and share. I think what I can say as -- we always had second sourcing in our business in QCT throughout the year. And I think, we have always rely and to strengthen our product roadmap and technology transitions to drive value and volume from our solutions. That I think that leads into your second question. I believe the gigabit LTE transition, it is going to get a lot of traction across all the developed markets. And also, you are going to see that as pre-deployment ahead of 5G. I think the ability to drive gigabit LTE technology with 4G using advance or other techniques is going to be key to drive a transition of 5G. And I think in addition to that we see both the WiFi and the LTE evolving at the same time across license in a licensed spectrum. As in a licensed spectrum with 3GPP is standard, it's called LAA and license spectrum becomes available that's going to give many operators worldwide the ability to get to gigabit speeds. And we are very confident about the ability to build that with a roadmap.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And this is Steve. The only thing I would add is, I think betting against feature leadership at the modem level has never been a good way to build a sustainable business. We think it continues to be a defensible franchise. And in fact, if you look at the strength that we are seeing in the business today in China, I think its good proof that that you do not want to be on a wrong side of modem feature leadership and we think that becomes continues to be important and becomes even more important as the industry transitions to 5G. So we feel like we are on a good support to maintain position on the modem franchise.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys. Is there any impact on pricing of the competition with Intel? And second about QCT, when should we see the bulk of the 820 RAM hitting the numbers? I'm trying to model this properly since the ASP so much higher than the average and I don't know if you expect -- you expect it to hit the certain time or more moderate growth kind of across many quarters. Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Tal, obviously, we can't specifically talk about anyone customers pricing. But I can tell you or reiterate what I said about going Q3 to Q4, part of how we are going to be getting the operating margin to 16% is a strength that both the gross margin level and across our product suite. So I think we feel very good about the positioning of our products and the ASP implications to that.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi. I think Tal and to comment on the 820 RAM, I think we will continue to see 820 launches throughout the year. I think you have the normal seasonality of the holiday season. But also, you have now different seasonality in China as well. So, I think, we will continue to see 820 launches throughout the year and when we get into 2017, you are going to start to see launches regarding the next generation platform.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
CJ Muse:
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I guess two quick ones. First one, can you share what the dollar value of catch-up payment is embedded in your September Q revenue guide? And then, secondly, if I look at your EPS guide and your QCT operating margin guide, it seems to suggest that PBT margin for QTL closer to 74% versus 86% last Q. Curious, if you could walk through what's driving that down tech? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
So for QTL, we would expect obviously, we are coming down quarter-over-quarter relative to the -- because of the amount of -- kind of out of period items that were in Q3, spending, staying flat will impact operating margin not as much as certainly what you are forecasting. We haven't guided the amount of licensing that we anticipate assigning but, it's not a material amount, but there is some -- included in our guidance forecast.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis McCourt:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Derek, I wonder you gave us the catch-up payments for the fiscal third quarter embedded in the $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion guidance for QTL, can you give us the full year estimate or if it's a range of catch up payments? And then, secondly, Steve on the gigabit LTE, I missed it before, was that in the roadmap for next year's modem, have you said that specifically? And if so, what level of carrier aggregation would be needed for that? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Tavis, its Derek. So, we are not going to break out specifically what's in the -- how much catch-up was in the sort of in the range. The way to think about it though is, sort of the two of the larger companies that we have been negotiating with have been withholding payments. This quarter reported and we recognized more than $200 million of catch-up payments related to them. That's not the entirety of the catch-up amount, but it's obviously a significant portion. And then, as you think about what catch-up means, there is obviously some 2015 activity but now we are half way -- essentially half-way through 2016, so there will be additional catch-up. So you have in-quarter activity plus catch-up payments related to those agreements when they get signed and if that happens in the fourth quarter that would roll through there. But, pretty hard for us to give more color than that just given the timing and uncertainty of when they will get done and how much we will roll through in the quarter.
Cristiano Amon:
Hi, Tavis. This is Cristiano. To your question on gigabit LTE; gigabit LTE I think we already sampled some of the first products of gigabit LTE, you are going to see this in product throughout next calendar year, maybe some of the early products could come as early as this calendar year. And you need a three or four carrier aggregation to be able to do this. One important thing is, you have a lot of carriers today doing three carrier aggregation today. I think that plus four carrier aggregation, you can get to gigabit speeds.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete. Please go ahead.
Brett Simpson:
Yes. Thanks very much. First question for Derek on QTL, so just looking at the China license agreement that you are signing off late, my understanding is, they don't include implementation patents anymore and you have an outlook for $10 billion of QTL revenue by 2020. Can you talk about how you might monetize your non-standard essential patents, your implementation patents in the future? Should we expect Qualcomm to consider separating implementation patents, are there separate license agreement with your customers as you move towards let's say 5G?
Derek Aberle:
Hey, Brett. This is Derek. You are correct as it relates to China. So as part of the NDRC resolution, we committed to offer licenses to -- actually not even the entirety of our essential patent portfolio. But, the 3G, 4G standard essential patents in China. And so, in a sense that has resulted in us doing something different in China than we have done historically which is a disaggregation of the portfolio. And as I said in the past, we do believe there is an opportunity to monetize the remainder of the portfolio. Our focus has been really sort of a sequenced approach meaning try to get through the all of the key deals covering the 3G/4G portfolio and I think we are getting towards the finish line on that. And then, once we do that, I think there is a number of different opportunities and ways that we are thinking through monetizing the remainder of the portfolio. And as you may recall that we mentioned that wasn't built in even to the $10 billion number that we have talked about in February. So, we do think there is an opportunity there over time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ed Snyder with Charter Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Ed Snyder:
Thanks a lot. Steve, you mentioned that to be strong in 5G, you really have to be strong in 4G given the legacy standard, isn't that also the case to some extent with 4G that you had to be fairly strong in 3G, and how does that impacted the second sourcing and some of your larger customers. Is this one of the things that's keep you in majority share and you think you are just going to play out that way for the rest of the 4G and then into 5G to. It's been the case, lot of folks have been in the modem business with great plans and almost all of them falling away, there seems to be most of it done because they are on the legacy software to do all the hand-off in the corner case if Qualcomm does? So just trying to figure out, how that applies to some of the marquee phones are playing out now, and then into 5G, you see that being a big factor, we're going to go so far through reservation like IOT and all that legacy stuff is going to be as big of a deal? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Ed, you know, I actually agree with the way that you characterized it. It's been very difficult to build, I would say a high-quality modem business without having the ability to handle all the modes they come up. This becomes increasingly important when you are looking to get into SKUs that are sold, let's say worldwide because essentially you get the entire world feature set come into your product. And so what you tend to see is, people might split their products and go with one region with a particular solution, but it's difficult to get the lion share and certainly difficult I think over time to protect that those design wins. So we have seen that over a number of generations and I would say one of the reasons that we were successful in 4G besides just being ahead on 4G was the ability to make it very easy for multi-mode to occur at the chipset. Really, all the multi-mode work tends to be abstracted to the user by the chipset. That continues to be important and I would add in Wi-Fi and many different brands when you go to 5G. So we think that's going to continue to be an important component of our business moving forward. And one of the reasons why we think it's important to invest not only in the modem but in the RF and all of the technologies that make that very easy to occur. With IOT it even becomes more important in my opinion because the SKU that goes into these industrial applications, you're really trying to make it easy for someone to go and access cellular without having to learn about all of the complications that cellular provide. So, we think that's not only a defensible strategy for cellular products but also for the Internet of Things and the franchise moving forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
David Wong:
Thanks very much. I had a question and a follow-up. The first one is that if you look at your royalty business, what is your license business China, what is your attitude to capturing all of the license business, will you in every case you can't come to an agreement seek a legal remedy or will there be many cases in which it's not worth the cost?
Steve Mollenkopf:
The business in China obviously is pretty diverse. And I think we've approached it in the right way which is -- we have kind of a stage plan, the first is to get the key agreements done, I think we are making good progress as you've seen on that front. There is a number of in-country in China compliance initiatives, we have ongoing with existing licensees including active audit and other efforts to make sure we really have a clear understanding of the market landscape and who is doing what. There will be I think a piece of the market that is sort of the long-tale piece that tends to be, lower ASP, low cost, lower featured devices. They might be a little bit harder to get after than some of the other pieces. But, we are seeing consolidation across the OEMs both in terms of share and also even some early M&A activity. So the number of players we believe will reduce over time. Beyond that, so obviously, legal proceedings will be an element of our compliance efforts and you have seen that with Meizu. But, there are many, many other things we are doing as well both in China and I talked about some of these at some length at our Analyst Day in February. But, there is a lot of activity we are also doing outside of China and a lot of the other regions in the world that we think have the ability to impact and change behavior for some of the players that have been less compliant in the past. So litigation will be one tool, but it's not going to be the only tool. And there is other things that are less costly that we think we can do to drive higher compliance over time and big area focus obviously for the business right now.
David Wong:
Okay, great. And for leading edge chip manufacturing technology in the future, do you plan to use a single foundry for any given advance mode or might you split your business between foundries, when do you expect to tape-out 10-nanometers and have the sampling?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Well, I think in general, we tend to have a multi-sourcing strategy and that includes the leading node. We have already taped out 10-nanometer and sampled it to customer. So, our focus tends to be on the leading node even beyond 10 nanometers and because our business is so diverse we tend to use everything from the leading node all the down to analog processes. So it's a multi-sourcing tends to be one of the tenants of how we operate the business.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you. I just wanted to thank everyone for attending the call today. We had a stronger than expected quarter and are executing well on our plans to position the company for the next phase and profitable growth. We continue to make good progress in the licensing business in China and have favorable new product momentum in QCT. Lastly, I want to thank all of the Qualcomm employees for their hard work, for the strong quarter and we look forward to the many exciting opportunities ahead. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director Derek K. Aberle - President George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Cristiano R. Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.-President, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm, Inc.
Analysts:
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co. T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Bernstein Research Tal Liani - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Tavis C. McCourt - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC C.J. Muse - Evercore ISI Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc. Dean Grumlose - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm second quarter fiscal 2016 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded April 20, 2016. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 82473415. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you and good afternoon. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. This call is also being webcast on Qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on the website later today. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. As well, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered a stronger than expected quarter as we continued to execute on our strategy to position the company for the next phase of profitable growth. Non-GAAP earnings per share were above the high end of our guidance range, driven by strength in both QTL and QCT. QTL revenues reflect seasonably strong December quarter activity, and we are pleased with the progress we are making in China. We signed several new China licenses in the first few months, with more than 100 companies now having accepted the NDRC [National Development and Reform Commission] terms. We remain in active discussions with the few key Chinese OEMs that have not yet signed and believe we are making progress in those discussions. We are also pleased to have recently resolved our licensing dispute with LG. In QCT, our chipset shipments were above the midpoint of our prior guidance range, driven by strong demand from Chinese OEMs, and we had favorable product costs. During the quarter, we returned approximately $2.3 billion to stockholders through dividends and stock repurchases. We also announced a 10% increase in our quarterly cash dividend, reflecting our confidence in the strength of our ongoing cash flows and future earnings growth. We remain focused on improving our financial trajectory exiting the fiscal year, and we are on track in this regard. In QCT, we have updated our roadmap across tiers, and our new products have been very well received. The flagship Snapdragon 820 is now available in leading devices such as the Samsung Galaxy S7, the LG G5, and the Xiaomi Mi5, along with devices from Sony, HTC, HP, and others. We now have over 115 Snapdragon 820 designs, and expect volume to ramp on this platform through the second half of the fiscal year. Our strategy of offering differentiated all-mode modem solutions with carrier aggregation capability is extending our leadership and enabling strong design traction, particularly in China at the mid and high tiers. In China, new use cases for carrier aggregation are providing product differentiators for our customers and enhancing our design traction. We are continuing to pursue additional content opportunities in the smartphone and recently announced a suite of next-generation Qualcomm RF360 technologies. We are on track to deliver our next-generation CMOS and Galliumarsenid PAs in 2017 and will extend our product offerings, including complete RF front-end module solutions once the TDK transaction closes. Further, we are broadening our presence in adjacent opportunities, including automotive, networking, mobile compute, and IOT. Collectively, the serviceable addressable opportunity for these adjacent areas is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% over the next five years, from $12 billion to $29 billion, according to a combination of third-party and internal estimates, and we are well positioned to benefit from this expanding opportunity. We expect these adjacent opportunities to drive approximately $2.5 billion in QCT revenues in fiscal year 2016. We are seeing significant momentum across these areas. In automotive, we have very strong design traction in telematics across Tier 1 manufacturers. With the completion of our CSR acquisition, we now have a comprehensive connectivity portfolio, including Bluetooth Smart, Wi-Fi, and LTE, which allows us to offer a broader suite of products to our expanded set of customers. In networking, we have a strong pipeline of over 240 designs with our 802.11ac solution across router, home gateway, and set-top box implementations. We continued to gain significant traction and win category-defining designs in IOT segments such as wearables, action cameras, security and surveillance cameras, virtual reality headsets, drones, and smart city infrastructure. At MWC, we announced ecosystem expansion for our next-generation Snapdragon Wear platform, and we are pleased to report that there are now over 100 wearable devices using Qualcomm technology, which includes over 80% of all Android Wear smartwatch designs. Looking at the IOT more broadly, there are now over 1 billion IOT devices that have shipped using Qualcomm technology. We continue to forecast QCT operating margins of 16% or better in the fourth fiscal quarter and are targeting 20%-plus operating margins longer term. It is important to note that for planning purposes, both our near-term and long-term margin targets have consistently factored in a range of second sourcing assumptions at our large customers, and we believe our margin targets are achievable under those scenarios. We have strong confidence in our technology leadership, differentiated modem roadmap, and unique global scale. For instance, we recently demonstrated our Snapdragon X16 LTE modem, the first commercially announced gigabit-class LTE chipset, designed to deliver fiber-like LTE Category 16 download speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second, at least two generations ahead of the competition. This modem also supports Licensed Assisted Access, the global standard for LTE in unlicensed spectrum, becoming the mobile industry's first commercially announced LTE advanced pro modem and marks an important step towards 5G as we enable deeper unlicensed spectrum integration with LTE and more advanced MIMO techniques to support growing data consumption. Further, we are leading the world to 5G, as we did in both 3G and 4G. To support this, we are designing a new OFDM-based 5G air interface that will not only enhance mobile broadband services but also enable connectivity and management for the Internet of Things and new types of mission-critical services that require lower latency, higher reliability, and robust security. We demonstrated our 5G millimeter wave 28 GHz prototype system at Mobile World Congress, showcasing robust and sustained mobile broadband communications at these higher spectrum bands. Looking ahead, we continue to execute on our strategic plans to position us well for the future. Fiscal 2016 is a transition year, and we are making very good progress. We are taking decisive steps to enable us to capitalize on the significant opportunities ahead while delivering improving near-term performance. I would now like to turn the call over to Derek.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. As Steve noted, QTL had a stronger than expected fiscal second quarter, with total reported device sales of approximately $70 billion, reflecting the seasonally strong holiday quarter. I am pleased to report that we recently resolved our dispute with LG. As a result of the resolution, we will resume recognizing quarterly LG revenues in fiscal Q3 in addition to recording the revenues we deferred from the first two fiscal quarters. As a reminder, LG continued to report and pay during the dispute, so the sales they reported for the first two quarters of fiscal 2016 were included in the total reported device sales for those quarters, but we did not recognize revenues for those quarters given that the arbitration was underway. We are also continuing to make steady progress in China, completing new China license agreements. We recently signed new agreements with Lenovo, EWPE, Yulong, and Hisense, and now have more than 100 companies that have accepted the NDRC terms, including the top five worldwide Chinese licensees. Yulong and Hisense were signed after the close of our second fiscal quarter and will be reflected in our third quarter results. In addition, we are still actively negotiating with several of the other remaining key Chinese OEMs and are making progress in those discussions. As we explained at our Analyst Day in February, we are also working hard on a number of fronts to improve compliance with our licensees in China. We have begun implementing those plans and expect them to deliver meaningful improvements over time. The percentage of global units not reported to us during the second fiscal quarter increased modestly quarter over quarter, driven primarily by share gains from OEMs that have been withholding royalties during license negotiations. Looking ahead, we continue to see growth in global 3G/4G device shipments. LTE penetration is only approximately 16% of cellular connections globally, and cumulative smartphone unit shipments are forecast to be more than 8.7 billion from 2016 through 2020 according to GSM Intelligence and Gartner. For calendar year 2015, we now estimate global 3G/4G device shipments were approximately 1.55 billion units, slightly below the midpoint of our prior range and up approximately 13% year over year. We saw strong growth in emerging regions, particularly in China, and expect this trend to continue in calendar 2016. We are adjusting our estimate of calendar 2016 global 3G/4G device shipments to 1.625 billion to 1.725 billion devices, with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 8% at the midpoint, down from our previous midpoint estimate of approximately 10% growth. The strong 4G ramp in China continues, as each of the operators pursues aggressive subscriber growth targets with their 4G-plus service offerings, and design momentum is moving rapidly towards all-mode devices across China. The strength in China, however, is being offset by a reduction in growth rates in other emerging regions, which we believe is attributable to macroeconomic headwinds. In addition, our forecast for premium-tier device shipments is down slightly versus our prior view, driven by slower than expected upgrades within one of the premium-tier ecosystems. Global 3G/4G handset ASPs are tracking slightly better than our prior expectations of an approximately 6% year-over-year decline for the fiscal year, driven primarily by stronger premium-tier ASPs. We continue to expect low single-digit growth in global 3G/4G device sales in fiscal 2016, as unit growth is expected to more than offset ASP declines. Despite adjustments to near-term shipment estimates, we believe the long-term growth drivers for 3G/4G device sales remain intact and provide a solid foundation for the licensing business to deliver greater than $10 billion in revenue in our fiscal 2020. Turning to our QTL revenue outlook for fiscal 2016, despite weaker than expected unit shipments for the fiscal year, we continue to expect QTL revenues to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion. Given the weaker than expected 3G/4G device demand, we will need to make some additional progress on signing the remaining license agreements in China in order to be within that range, but continue to feel that is achievable. As we said at our Analyst Day, although there will be quarterly fluctuations in the externally implied royalty rate that you calculate based on the information we provide, we estimate a normalized rate for fiscal 2016 will be approximately 2.9%. This is based on adjusting for one-time items and other anomalies such as a difference in timing between when revenues for catch-up payments are recognized and when the related TRDS may be reported. In conclusion, we continue to make good progress in China and are pleased to have resolved the LG dispute. We are keenly focused on concluding the right long-term agreements with the remaining China licensees as well as improving compliance, and expect continued progress throughout the rest of the fiscal year. That concludes my comments, and I will now turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal second quarter non-GAAP revenues were $5.5 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.04, up 7% sequentially and above the high end of our prior guidance range. In QCT, MSM shipments were 189 million, 2% above the midpoint of our prior guidance, reflecting stronger demand in China. QCT revenues were $3.3 billion, with a sequentially higher implied revenue per MSM. QCT operating margin was 5%, toward the high end of our prior expectations. In QTL, total reported device sales and revenues benefited from strength in both developed and emerging regions during the holiday quarter. As a reminder, we report QTL on a one-quarter lag, so these results reflect the strength of fourth calendar quarter holiday demand. QTL results also include a one-time revenue benefit of $266 million, resulting from the merger of two infrastructure licensees, as we forecasted on last quarter's call. This was partially offset by the end of a multiyear license fee amortization of approximately $100 million per quarter as well as the impact of the LG dispute revenue deferral, which will now be included in our fiscal third quarter results, consistent with the settlement announced today. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased 1% sequentially, slightly less than our guidance range, due to an increase in legal and litigation related expenses. We returned approximately $2.3 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including approximately $700 million of dividends paid and $1.5 billion in stock repurchases at an average price of approximately $49 per share. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $30 billion. Our non-GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 18%, consistent with our expected rate for the full year. Now turning to fiscal 2016, in QTL, as Derek indicated, we continue to forecast revenues will be between $7.3 billion to $8 billion despite a weaker overall TRDS outlook for the year. In QCT, we continue to see improving demand for premium and high-tier devices in the second half of the fiscal year, offset by reduced demand for thin modem products and low-tier chipsets. We remain on track for operating margin of 16% or better in the fourth fiscal quarter. We also remain on track to meet the $1.4 billion reduction in spending under the strategic realignment plan, and we continue to expect at least $700 million of savings in fiscal 2016 relative to the SRP baseline, ahead of our original $600 million target. A summary of the savings program is included in the investor presentation for this call on our website. We continue to expect fiscal 2016 non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be down approximately 2% to 4% year over year, which includes the full-year impact of acquisitions of approximately 5%. Adjusting for M&A, estimated spending in these areas would be down 7% to 9% year over year. Turning to our fiscal third quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.2 billion to $6 billion, up approximately 1% sequentially at the midpoint, driven by strong product mix in QCT and the favorable LG dispute resolution in QTL, including catch-up revenues from prior-period activity. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal third quarter to be approximately $0.90 to $1.00 per share, down approximately 4% year over year at the midpoint. We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be approximately flat sequentially. In QTL, fiscal third quarter revenues will include recognition of more than $200 million that was deferred in the first fiscal and second quarters related to the LG dispute resolution. Separately, we estimate total reported device sales between $52 billion and $60 billion will be reported by our licensees in the June quarter for shipments they made in the March quarter, down sequentially compared to the seasonally high holiday quarter shipments. We have not included any potential benefit from license agreements under negotiation, consistent with our prior practice. We expect QTL's operating margin percentage to be down sequentially, in line with seasonal trends reflecting the first calendar quarter. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 175 million to 195 million units during the June quarter and expect revenue per MSM to be up more than 10% sequentially. We expect QCT operating margin to improve sequentially and be in the range of 9% to 10% for the fiscal third quarter. These expectations reflect the benefit of a stronger chip roadmap on both performance and cost leadership across tiers, favorable product mix, growth in adjacent opportunities, and lower operating expenses. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. James, please make sure that your line is not on mute.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hello? Can you hear me now?
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Yes, we can hear you, James.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hello? Okay, I'm sorry. So I just had a couple of quick questions. First, I just want to clarify the comments around QTL and its potential licensing. Should we take from your comments that the risk of it potentially falling outside of or below the targeted range for this year have gone up, or are you just trying to clarify that? And I guess my second question is related, and that is as you continue to pursue licensing agreements with some of the larger Chinese OEMs with whom you don't have agreements, does it reach a stage or when do we reach a stage that you may have to start to pursue legal options through the courts there, and what would that look like? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Great. Thanks, James. On the range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion, our point was the range was initially defined solely by the outcomes based on our market assumptions at the beginning of the year if we were able to. If we weren't able to make much progress, we saw ourselves ending up at about $7.3 billion in QTL on the licensing agreements. If we made significant progress, that could take us to $8 billion. Obviously, the LG issue from last quarter created some confusion. We said that was really outside the range. Now that that has been resolved, what we're saying is that the end market is softer than we had anticipated when we set the range up front, and that's pulled down the overall size of the market. So we would have to make up some of that in the form of some additional progress on the licensing agreements. And we feel that we're making progress there, so it would be premature to say that we don't believe that we'll end up somewhere in between the $7.3 billion and $8 billion that we started with.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
James, this is Derek. On your second question, right now we're really focused on trying to conclude the remaining agreements through negotiation if that's possible. And I think as you've seen and Steve mentioned and I mentioned in my comments, we have been continuing to conclude additional agreements over time. So if we get to the point where we don't believe that that's possible through continued negotiation or the companies aren't negotiating in good faith, then we're certainly prepared to take the next step and enforce our rights. With most of the companies, it would really be more along the lines of an action to enforce their agreement that they have in place today. And like I said, we've been preparing for quite some time to do that if necessary, but so far have felt like we're still making enough progress with the licensees. And I think the progress that you're seeing through the announcements is supportive of that. And so we're going to keep at it and see if we can get across the finish line without the need for litigation. But of course, that's always an option for us if we need it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Timothy Patrick Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you, just two if I could. Steve, you mentioned chip margins with regard to thoughts about second-sourcing at large customers. Could you talk to us, just expand a little bit about that on timing, when you think you might see second-source at most of your major customers? And on the cost side of it, do there need to be OpEx cuts if there is a second sourcing going on, or can you handle it without that? And then just one follow-up for Derek on the Chinese, could you just clarify? There have been a lot of announcements from these large players. Have they pretty much all been just adding three-mode to existing deals, or have any of those large ones announced been fully incremental? Or again, has it just been just three-mode additions? Thank you.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Tim, this is Steve. So on the second-sourcing, I think the main point is that we have been assuming that in our plans really since the beginning of when we did our restructuring. Difficult for me to talk about timing related to that, but I think the point we wanted to communicate was that we are assuming for planning purposes that that is the case. And even with that, we are comfortable with our margin targets and our improving financials in the chip business in the second half.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Tim, on your second question, I would say we've commented on this a couple of times, and unfortunately there's still a little bit of confusion on the catch-up picture. As we've said, most of the companies that we've been negotiating with to try to conclude agreements on the non-three-mode part of the market have been continuing to report and pay under their agreements. And so when we sign them to the new NDRC terms, that doesn't result in most cases any significant catch-up on the non-three-mode part of the market. As you noted though, in many cases, it will result in them starting to pay royalties and pay past royalties on three-mode devices that were previously not licensed. It's turned out so far that a number of the players have been the smaller players in the three-mode market. And so the contributions from that haven't been significant, or the way we've structured the deals and how the past royalties have been structured to be paid over time, those are things that will come into our P&L through probably a period of time later in 2016 and maybe even into 2017. And so we are getting agreements for those to be paid. It's just that they're being probably spread over a longer time than people anticipate. There are less than a handful of companies that we're in negotiations with that are larger players also on three-mode and non-three-mode that have been not reporting while they're negotiating. And when we conclude those deals, you would expect to see more significant catch-up payments for prior-period sales compared to the ones that we've signed to date.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi, thank you very much. Can you clarify for the June quarter, what is the royalty rate that we should be thinking about? I understand that 2.9% is the longer-term number. But just in the nearer term given the LG and the China catch-ups, how should we think about that for the June quarter?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Simona, this is Derek. At this point, we're not going to guide quarter by quarter on the implied rate, as I spent a fair amount of time at the Analyst Day going through, there are so many factors that impact it. And the timing of a number of these elements, some of which are in our guidance, some of which are not in our guidance because we haven't yet reached closure on it, can have an impact on the rate. We do feel, continue to feel, as I noted in my script, that for the year, for the full fiscal year, that we will be in the range of around the 2.9% that I spoke about at the Analyst Day, so still consistent with that. But you are going to continue to see fluctuations quarter over quarter as some of these disputes get resolved or catch-up payments come in. That is going to move, so we're not going to be guiding one quarter out on that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity:
Great, thanks. Switching over to QCT, to hit your 16% margin, can you walk us through revenue per MSM trends? Is the step-up of 10%-plus going to continue to go higher based on mix shift? And then also, if you could, just talk about your momentum in China on the mid to high tier. How sustainable you think that is over a multi-quarter period, and what that might do to the revenue per MSM trends longer-term? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Mike, it's George. We're seeing a lot of factors that support stronger revenue per MSM growth, not only in the third quarter but also in the fourth quarter, including the lower thin modem. You've got very attractive mix shift between the low tier to the mid and the high tier. All those things will play strongly in revenue per MSM, and we expect that to hold in the third and fourth quarters.
Cristiano R. Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.-President, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hey, Mike, this is Cristiano. I think to your question on China, I think if you remember, in the last earnings call and during the Analyst Day, I think we talked about an interesting trend in China that was very helpful, is the transition of the market to the new version of LTE with carrier aggregation and as well as all-mode. I think we're starting to see this strategy materialize not only in this quarter but as we think about the coming quarters. And this is driving also the mix improvement on the mid and the high tier. We see the mid and high and premium tier in China actually growing faster than the market. That helped drive the mix improvement for QCT. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I had two. One, I wanted go back to this change in the TRDS unit expectation for the calendar year versus the guidance range for QTL, and just understand. Is the reason that you're not changing the QTL guidance range because these puts and takes, you've signed some deals, the market's a little bit weaker than you thought, you just end up at the same midpoint? Or can you give us some more color around why those two things seem to differ from each other in terms of movement? And then the second thing I wanted to do, Derek, you mentioned in your commentary I think an ecosystem player and expectations for slower upgrade cycle there. Is most of that expectation happening later this year, or are using it happening now? Can you just clarify what's your definition of ecosystem player? Is that a vendor or is that a particular region of the world? Just give us a little bit more clarity there. Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Rod, so let me try to take the first one on. So really what we're seeing is if we look at the market for calendar 2016, and 2015 came in just slightly lower than what we expected for the year. We are seeing some softness in the premium tier, some puts and takes, some other weakness in emerging regions, but actually improvement in China. China continues to be quite strong. And overall also, the ASP picture is looking good as well. We expected moderation in the ASP declines year over year, and that seems to be at least so far tracking better than our assumption. So we do feel like there is – the net-net of that is a bit weaker market for the fiscal year, but we gave a pretty wide range on QTL revenue for the year just given all the different elements in there. And we felt with still some time left in the year, we do believe we can continue to make progress in China as we have been demonstrating over the last few months. And so as George mentioned, we just felt it was premature to adjust the range. We will need to make more progress relative to where we were before, just given the change in the market, but we still think the range is a reasonable range to hold for now. On the second question, really I think what we're saying is we are seeing some continued softness in the premium tier. We saw that earlier, and our projections were based on that. It's a little bit more softness, and I think that plays out. It has played out through some of the previous quarters already and will continue through the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question, just two related questions. Just when you talked about with the second sourcing that you had a good idea and had right-sized the OpEx, the definition of second source, would you have an idea of what percentage you'll get? And the second part is as you look forward into next year, you've always been ahead on the modem, but here is a top-tier phone using someone else's. Can you just talk about the sustainability at the leading edge and talk about what percentage of the market actually uses the Cat 12 modem and whether that can increase over time? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Blayne, this is Steve. I'll take the first part and maybe Cristiano can jump in on the long-term question. I think we took an appropriate planning assumption really for sizing the OpEx. We wanted to make sure that when we implemented our realignment in terms of cost structure that we comprehended, I think, the proper range of outcomes. I think we feel quite strong or quite good about our modem roadmap and where it's going, but I think we're doing the appropriate thing from the perspective of planning our OpEx. And maybe Cristiano could add some of the product details of that.
Cristiano R. Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.-President, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm, Inc.:
Hi, this is Cristiano. Look, I think it's important to understand. When we think about technology, not only in the modem space but even on the MSM, I think we continue to maintain at least two generations lead over the competition. But I think more important is some of the transitions and trends we're seeing in the market. I think one of the things is more the Internet is becoming wireless, and you see the 4G transition becoming more mature in developed markets. You see carriers now competing for premium customers. And the transition that we've been talking about, LTE to carrier aggregation, I think that's actually growing faster. So I think you're starting to see gigabit LTE modem that we demonstrated. And we will see from that one, the user from licensing spectrum with the global standard, I think was mentioned by Steve, the LAA, and maybe within the next two to three years an accelerated timeline of deployment of 5G. As we continue to invest and we see those technology transitions ahead of us, we feel very confident that the whole nature of the market is probably going to demand the latest technology and the key devices. So that's how we're feeling about the market and our modem business. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks. I just have a couple of questions. For Derek first of all, at the analyst meeting, Derek, you laid out Chinese OEM revenue of $83 billion this year, and you guys really weren't collecting on I think about 44% of that between what was unlicensed and what was basically under-reported. Just given you've now got 100 of these deals done and you've got some of the negotiations and you're doing your compliance program and auditing as well, should we think about – is the hard work by the end of this fiscal year done that that level that you're not really collecting on today you would have at least addressed through deals and under-reporting, or is this a program and situation that could roll all the way into 2017? And then for Steve and for Cristiano maybe, on the LTE modem probably the last comment you made, I take the point, by the way, that there's carrier aggregation and everything else. It looks like you lost market share last year in the chipset industry on the wireless side. It probably sounds like there's some risk as we go through this year as well, and I'm just wondering. Does it take till actually 5G comes out and carrier aggregation wouldn't really drive home your competitive advantage, or could the market share for you at some point start inflecting and you start gaining share in this industry again? Many thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Kulbinder, this is Derek. On your first question, I think you got the numbers right. The chart that we showed at the Analyst Day was again for fiscal 2016, basically just in your revenue note catch-up from prior periods. And we said if we completed these remaining negotiations with the handful of companies we have left that that would get us to about 75%-ish collection rate on the TRDS, but that we would continue to have compliance issues that we were going to need to work through. And that really is going to be something that we hope to make progress on and expect to make progress on as we move through 2016, but certainly will also be a longer-term project. There's a fair amount of work involved and it's going to take some time. So I think the way to look at it is if we can achieve the results that we hope in the negotiations, we'll have a meaningful step function up on collections, but to get to the remainder of that 25% issue is going to take some time.
Cristiano R. Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.-President, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm, Inc.:
This is Cristiano. I think maybe to address your question on share, I think it may be important to decompose that question into different segments. One, if you look on the premium tier, we have been – there have been a number of announcements. We've been very confident in the Snapdragon 820. I think we made a lot of progress there. I think even if you look with one of the large customers, both the Samsung Galaxy S7 and S7 Edge that launched in the second fiscal quarter, they're using the Snapdragon 820. And I think we have about 117 designs. We feel good about that portfolio. And in China, if you look at what happened, when China entered 4G – when we started the transition to 4G, we expected over time, we started with very high share. We expected that to normalize over time. But what we've seen actually in this year, we are doing better than we expected in share in China, and also seeing the impact of those technologies changing the product mix from growth being higher from the low to the mid and high tier, showing that modem continues to be a good point of differentiation even in a growth market like in China. I think maybe to clarify this, I believe we had said early in the year as we went through the SRP that we were planning so that we could derisk the market concentration in our planning assumptions, I think that's what we're saying. We're planning that we have conservative planning assumptions. But at the end of the day, we're still designing a very competitive product roadmap, and we're seeing good traction in the marketplace, not only on the modem, but the MSM premium tier and the product portfolio that we have been commercializing in China. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thanks, I had two. I guess first of all, a question for all of you. Do you worry that we're talking about share loss at the premium tier? And there's some consensus as to who you're going to lose that to on the chip side. And of course, they make their own chips. So do you worry that that becomes a competitive disadvantage over time, having access to world-class manufacturing that your foundry partners, just frankly, aren't able to just keep up?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
So, Tim, this is Steve. I think a couple things. One is just to reiterate that for the purpose of when we plan OpEx and our margin trajectories, we do assume that something will happen, but we're quite confident in our roadmap. Now right now, our products that we are competing against are really not manufactured by – it's not a vertical play in terms of who we're going after. And then specifically when you look at our foundry partners, they – we're very happy with what we're seeing from a transistor roadmap out in time, actually from multiple sources. So we feel not only can we compete in the modem tier and the connectivity tiers, but even more importantly in computing and even computing going into very high-performance computing, we have the transistors to be able to make that successful. So I think we feel very confident both in the transistor roadmap that we're seeing from our suppliers and also with the business model that we will be in a strong position. I think also our scale within the fabless industry is actually helping us a lot in terms of pricing. I think that's one of the things you're seeing the benefit of in terms of some of the margin improvement that you're seeing embedded in the business in the second half and even delivered out here in the second quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Bernstein Research:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. The first one on the QTL licensing guide, I've got to be honest. I still don't understand why you're guiding like you're guiding. I understand what you're saying. You need to get more collection out. But if your trends of collection, the range of collection right now was the same today as it was when you first gave the guidance, what would the guidance range be? What are we talking about here? Secondly, it seems to me like you are implicitly guiding your QTL margins, your operating margins into the mid-70% for next quarter, which is lower than seasonal. And I know you said you had some increase in legal and litigation costs, which I assume is what's driving that. So are these compliance-related, or is there something else going on the legal and litigation front that's taking the QTL operating margins down next quarter?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Stacy, this is Derek. If you look at the Q3 guide, I think our view has been that we're not going to include in guidance in-quarter deals unless we have clear line of sight to those and they're essentially either done or close to done. And so we've been taking a more conservative approach maybe than we have in the past, and we've been doing that for a couple of quarters now. I think as you see, the guide in Q3 is consistent with that. And I think really if you step back and look at it, the difference may be just the terms of the assumptions and timing if I look at some of the other models out there in terms of what lands in Q3 versus Q4. Because of the way we're guiding, that would essentially mean that more is in Q4 versus Q3 as you look at the profile for the year, assuming we're able to conclude those remaining deals. So that may be part of it. On the margin question, I just think you're – I'm not sure how you got to your number. That's not consistent with what we're modeling in the business.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I would add that that would be well below our assumption for QTL in any of the remaining quarters. And I think what we've seen is on some of these licensing arrangements, they can be large and lumpy, and trying to forecast what is inherently a negotiation process proved over a number of quarters to be something that either
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Tal Liani - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Hi, guys. I wanted to understand two things. First, the contribution of LG this quarter, when you guided the quarter, I think that LG was not in. And I'm trying to understand how much of the strength this quarter is related the addition of LG versus your previous expectations and how much is the underlying market. And then second, this is a broader question. Your QTL is down 11.6% year over year, and I know there was a catch-up payment last year. But if I look at – think about things at a high level, China was not in last quarter outside of the catch-up payment I think from Huawei. This year, this quarter you do have China in. You also have LG in. So why are we seeing – we don't see much higher contribution of China just on a like-for-like basis. Again, the TRDS between the two quarters is down 7.5%, but your revenues are down 11.6%, so you're down more than the TRDS. That shouldn't happen given that China is kicking in this year. So I'm just trying to understand the dynamics of China contribution and why isn't it at a much stronger pace or a much stronger revenue level than we are seeing right now. Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Tal, just to be clear, the LG settlement happened in our third quarter, so it is not in the second quarter numbers. It will be roughly $200 million. We said it's a couple hundred – roughly $100 million a quarter for the first two quarters that will be catch-up that's embedded in our guidance. And then we'll be back to a run rate with LG. But that's all in Q3. Really, the Q2 item that we talked about was the fact that you had the ALU [Alcatel-Lucent] agreement, which added approximately $250 million. And then we had seen the discontinuation of a licensing amortization of about $100 million in that quarter. Derek, did you want to comment on...
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Yes, I think just to add to what George said, I think really what we said about LG was it's in the quarters we've talked about, it's been more than $100 million per quarter. So as George said, that is not in Q2. That will be reflected in Q3, both the in-quarter activity for Q3 as well as two prior quarters of catch up. In terms of trying to do the walk between last year Q2 to this year Q2, George hit on some of that. Obviously, we've got a one-time event in Q2 this quarter with the acceleration of the license fee that came in, the $266 million-ish payment, but then being offset by the fact that LG revenues are deferred, they're not in the quarter. And then we also have the end of this $100 million-ish a quarter amortization that's reflected in this quarter. Plus, as you mentioned, a year ago we had some catch-up payments, about $150 million from the resolution of a prior dispute. And then the China contribution, China was reflected pretty strongly in a year-ago quarter, meaning that was the last quarter that was reported to us before the NDRC resolution. The effect of that took hold in January of 2015. And so one of the other issues you're dealing with, with the year-over-year comparison is you've got application of the NDRC terms now in this quarter that wasn't a factor a year ago, as well as we saw the amount of units that are being under-reported accelerate throughout the year last year, in particular related to these negotiations where licensees stopped paying. And that was not really a primary driver in a year-ago quarter. So I think that's the walk as probably best we can break it out.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis C. McCourt - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question, a couple of them here. First on the MSM guidance, unit guidance for next quarter, so if I look at that on a year-over-year basis, it's down high teens. And obviously you're gaining some share at a major customer. I assume all of that cannot be related to unit weakness at the other major customer. And yet everything I hear so far is China is good, China is good. So help me with that disconnect. What's driving that unit growth in light of some share gains at one of your – or unit decline year over year in light of some share gains at one of your larger customers? And then secondly, to help me get to that 16% operating margin guidance for June, should we expect a more material change in the R&D or SG&A line item as we go from Q3 to Q4 than we've seen earlier this year? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. On the MSMs, as you look at year over year, there's definitely a significant delta from one major customer that is contributing. And what you're seeing in China is a shift in low/entry to mid and high, and so it's one of the reasons why you're seeing strong pickup in revenue per MSM in the quarter. So it's a story more of mix shift. It's pretty neutral outside of that. And so the low tier units, they tend to be more of those low-tier units that we're trading off, but we're picking up a significant amount of mid-high. In terms of OpEx, we expect OpEx to continue to decrease into the fourth quarter, but I think some of the comparisons that you may be doing would be looking at R&D period over period. But in one period, we didn't have the CSR OpEx; in the other period we do. So just make sure you're doing an apples-to-apples comparison because we've already seen a fair amount of the reduction already in the base level OpEx.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks very much. A clarification, the LG resolution of the dispute, did it actually end up in any of the terms of the payments from LG changing? And if so, are there any adjustments to prior periods that you've already recognized payments from LG?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
This is Derek. No, there are not any. The deal will not result in any modifications or changes to revenue that was previously recorded by the company. And as we said, really the results of this will be reflected in Q3, not in Q2.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please go ahead.
C.J. Muse - Evercore ISI:
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess two questions. First on OpEx, your fiscal year guide implies OpEx down 7% in September. I'm curious if that's right, and what we should think about going into the December quarter. And then secondly, with the nice uplift to ASPs for MSM in the June quarter, I'm curious how we should think about that heading into the back half of the calendar year as you layer in both the high-end as well as mid-level handsets. Thank you.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes, we said for the full year on OpEx, if you just look at the reported numbers, we'll be down 2% to 4%, but we have about a 5% impact from acquisitions. So it would be down in the range of 7% to 9% year over year. And as I said, we would continue to expect some cost reduction continuing through the back half of the year just on some of the actions that have taken place. In terms of revenue per MSM, as I said earlier, I think the dynamics that are driving the significant pickup that we are seeing in Q3 remain in place for Q4, very good mix, strong demand for our premium tier, again, a shift from low tier into the mid and high tier, and then some softness certainly comparatively year over year on thin modem volumes, which tend to depress revenues per MSM.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc.:
Thanks. Steve, you said that the forecast for QCT margins include expectations for second-source at your largest customers. Are we to imply from that statement that the mere mention of it means that it will be material in either units or margins, or do you see it more as a headline risk? And then along those same lines, since we are talking about Intel, it is true that every modem they've shipped so far has been fabbed at TSMC. But does your calculus on competition or market share change if they move that modem into their own process, or does it have no bearing at all on your outlook? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Ed, I think on the second question, it really doesn't bear much to it. The modem business is all about feature leadership and RF, and it's really about technology breadth and technology complexity. It tends to be less about die size and those things. And first to market, first to market with complexity tends to be the thing that leads the most. I think on your first question, it's really a communication of a planning assumption and also confidence in us meeting our long-term trajectory, both in this year and outside of this year with that assumption. I think it's important to make sure people understand that. We do feel very confident, though, in our position in the modem segment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Dean Grumlose - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hello, this is Dean Grumlose calling in for Kevin. Thanks very much for taking my question. I have seen numerous announcements of infrastructure and ecosystem progress with ARM-based server effort. Can you provide any additional color of your progress in ARM-based servers at this time, and when we might possibly see products or initial revenues?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Kevin, this is Derek. We went into some detail on the server opportunity that we're pursuing a couple months ago at the Analyst Day. And so we feel very good about the opportunity there. Not only is it a big and growing opportunity, but we feel like we're very well positioned to be successful in going after it. We're looking – we have some development platform out that's in customers' hands today and we're getting feedback on that, and that's going quite well. In terms of commercial product, basically our assumption is that we will be shipping samples towards the end of the year, and revenue would be something that would flow through mid to late next year.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yes, thank you. I want to thank everyone for attending the call today. We had a stronger than expected quarter, and are executing well on our plans to position the company for the next phase of profitable growth. We continued to make good progress on the licensing side in China, and this remains a key focus area for the company. We are also seeing positive impact of new product releases in QCT along with the efficiency gains from our realignment program. In closing, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment as we move forward to capture the many exciting opportunities ahead. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - VP, IR Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - EVP & CFO Don Rosenberg - EVP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary Cristiano Amon - President, QCT
Analysts:
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Rod Hall - JPMorgan Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Timothy Arcuri - Cowen and Company Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Research Tavis McCourt - Raymond James & Associates Srini Pajjuri - CLSA Securities Edward Snyder - Charter Equity Research
Operator:
Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter FY '16 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 27, 2016. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers, please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 240-998-43. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you and good afternoon. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call on our investor relations website. This call is also being webcast on Qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on the website later today. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G and you can find the reconciliations to GAAP on our website. As well, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the Company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. I'd also like to remind you that our Analyst Day will be held on Thursday, February 11 at our headquarters in San Diego. To attend in person, you must be a financial analyst or institutional investor. The analyst meeting will be webcast for those of you unable to attend in person. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered a stronger than expected quarter, with earnings per share coming in above the high end of our initial guidance, driven by strong 3G/4G device sales and lower operating expenses in QCT. QCT chipset shipments were near the high end of expectations, with low tier strength across OEMs particularly in China, offsetting some weakness in thin modem sales at a key customer. QTL revenues were higher than expectations on strong 3G/4G device volumes and ASPs and we continue to make progress in signing up Chinese licensees, although there is still more work to be done on that front. During the quarter, we also returned approximately $2.8 billion to stockholders through dividends and stock repurchases which included the completion of the incremental $10 billion in stock repurchases we announced last March. This $10 billion is over and above our commitment to return a minimum of 75% of free cash flow to our stockholders. We're also very pleased to have announced an agreement to form a joint venture with TDK to enable the delivery of RF front-end modules and RF filters into fully integrated systems for mobile devices and other IoT applications. Once closed, we will add TDK's capabilities in micro-acoustic RF filtering, packaging and module integration technologies to our RF 360 portfolio to offer leading-edge RF solutions in fully integrated systems that we believe will provide significant advantages in performance and time to launch across our Snapdragon product tiers. The deal is expected to close in early 2017 and is forecasted to be accretive to non-GAAP earnings in its first year. We have a strong pipeline of new RF front-end products, including new generations of our envelope tracker, antenna tuner, switches and CMOS and gallium arsenide PAs. Our gas PAs are anticipated to enter production in 2017. In addition, we continue to deepen our level of cooperation with an investment in China. We just announced a cooperation agreement with the province of Guizhou, including the formation of a joint venture that will design, develop and sell advanced server chipset technology in China. This builds on the announcement we made in October, detailing the availability of our server development platform which is now sampling to tier-one cloud customers and the strategic partnerships we have established with Xilinx and Mellanox. We continue to make good progress on the elements of our strategic realignment plan and are on track to achieve our cost-savings targets. I would also like to welcome Jeff Henderson to the Board. Jeff brings extensive financial and operational management experience to his position as an Independent Director, including 10 years as CFO of Cardinal Health and past automotive industry experience. Following our annual meeting in March, assuming our slate of directors are elected, our Board size will be reduced to 12 members and the average tenure will be reduced to approximately five years. I would also like to congratulate Cristiano Amon on his promotion to President of QCT. He provided exceptional leadership over his 18 years at Qualcomm and will play a critical role in expanding QCT's road map, enhancing our customer relationships, structuring our efforts for success in our adjacent opportunities and positioning the business for long term success. On that note, we continue to be pleased with the performance and design traction of our Snapdragon 820 processor. The first product announcement based on the 820 occurred at CES and we expect a number of exciting launches in the first half of this calendar year, including many at Mobile World Congress. We now have more than 100 design wins based on the 820 and the product is entering mass production using 14 nanometer LPP technology. At the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this month, it was clear that many industries are looking to leverage mobile technology into their products and businesses are looking to the leaders in communications and computer systems, such as Qualcomm, to make the world more connected and smarter. Our many announcements at the show reflect our progress extending Qualcomm technology into adjacent and new areas, including automotive, IoT and networking. In auto, we announced that Qualcomm Snapdragon 602A processors will be commercially available in 2017 Audi vehicles. We also introduced our next-generation Snapdragon 820 automotive processor, as well as several other products, including our wireless charging technology. For IoT, we announced a smart home-reference platform using the Snapdragon 212 processor, the new Qualcomm aptX HD solution for high-resolution audio over Bluetooth, a new Bluetooth smart SOC, the first commercial drone based on the QUALCOMM Snapdragon Flight platform and the Snapdragon X5 9X07 LTE modem which broadens our family of modem solutions for IoT. In networking, we launched Qualcomm Wi-Fi SON which is a self-organizing network solution, to simplify Wi-Fi networking and optimize user experience. And we showed significant traction in multiband Wi-Fi 802.11 AC and 11 AD, enabling products across multiple segments. As we did in both 3G and 4G, we're leading the industry in the development of a unified, more capable 5G platform that will take on a much larger role than previous generations and deliver new levels of efficiency. The foundation of this platform is an OFDM-based unified air interface, that will not only enhance mobile broadband services, but also enable connectivity for the Internet of Things and new types of mission-critical services that require lower latency, higher reliability and robust security. 5G will also include native support for advanced technologies, such as the use of unlicensed spectrum, multicast and device-to-device capabilities. We're pioneering these technologies today with our leadership in LTE Advanced and LTE Advanced Pro. These new technologies are paving the way for 5G and accelerating our path to a truly connected future. Overall, we're pleased with our progress on key initiatives, execution of the strategic realignment plan, design traction for the Snapdragon 820, refreshing the QCT road map across tiers, broadening our presence in adjacent opportunities, progress on new licensing agreements in China, execution of our data center strategy and advancements that will extend our technology leadership position. I want to reiterate that we remain focused on execution to improve our financial trajectory, exiting the fiscal year. Our industry and Company are undergoing rapid changes and we're enthusiastic about the opportunities ahead. We're extending our leadership in mobile and are driving our mobile technologies and core competencies in communication systems and high-performance low-power computing into significant new areas. We have taken action to enable us to seize these opportunities, while delivering improved performance. I'm optimistic about the future and have great confidence in our employees to execute on our strategies and drive growth. I look forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Analyst Day and would now like to turn the call over to Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve and good afternoon, everyone. QTL had a strong fiscal first quarter, with total reported device sales of $60.6 billion which was above expectations on both higher ASPs and reported units, as well as some catch-up reporting from recently concluded license agreements in China. QTL revenues in the quarter were higher than expectations and would have been even higher if not for a contract dispute with LG that resulted in us deferring revenue of more than $100 million for the quarter. Although LG continues to report and pay, we're not recognizing revenue while the arbitration regarding the dispute proceeds. We believe LG's claims are without merit. The deferral of this revenue has the effect of depressing the implied royalty rate as you would calculate it, as their shipments are included in total reported device sales without the corresponding revenue. Assuming we conclude this matter successfully, as we have done with others in the past, we would expect to recognize the deferred revenues at that time. Looking ahead, the outlook for global 3G/4G device shipments continues to be strong. With respect to smartphones in particular, there continues to be a significant opportunity for Qualcomm. LTE penetration is only 14% of cellular connections globally and smartphone unit shipments are forecast to be more than 8.5 billion from 2015 through 2019, according to GSM Intelligence and Gartner. Calendar 2015 global 3G/4G device shipments are largely in line with our prior expectations, driven primarily by migrations to 4G in China, partially offset by some recent weakness in developed regions. We continue to estimate that calendar 2016 global 3G/4G device shipments will grow approximately 10% at the midpoint, driven primarily by the migration to 3G/4G devices in emerging regions, with particular strength in India. Our estimate for premium tier shipments is down slightly versus our prior view, driven by slower-than-expected sell-through at a large OEM. But that is offset by a slightly stronger outlook for emerging region shipments. We continue to expect low single-digit growth in global 3G/4G device sales in FY '16, as unit growth more than offsets ASP declines. We will provide further color on our long term outlook for the 3G/4G device opportunity at our upcoming Analyst Day. Now let me provide an update on our progress with licensing in China. We're continuing to aggressively seek to conclude new license agreements on the NDRC terms with the remaining Chinese OEMs and improve compliance. We're making progress with these negotiations and recently concluded new agreements with Xiaomi, Haier, QiKu and Tianyu. These agreements include royalty-bearing licenses for three-mode devices and contain terms that are consistent with the terms of the rectification plan submitted to the NDRC. Having said that, we still need to conclude agreements with a handful of key Chinese OEMs and those negotiations continue. Our progress and our ongoing interactions with the NDRC and other parts of the Chinese government continue to give us confidence that we will be able to conclude agreements with the remaining key OEMs. While we're working to conclude new license agreements and improve compliance through commercial negotiations and audits, we're prepared to enforce our agreements and take other actions against certain OEMs that are not negotiating in good faith, underreporting royalties or refusing to conclude agreements in the near term. Turning to our outlook for FY '16, we continue to expect QTL's revenues to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion. Although additional risk has been introduced as a result of the new LG dispute, given that it could be resolved outside of FY '16. In conclusion, although we're seeing some near term softness in the premium tier, the sales of smartphones remain healthy and should continue to grow. We remain confident that we will be able to resolve the dispute with LG, conclude new agreements with the remaining key Chinese OEMs and improve compliance over time. That concludes my comments and I look forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Analyst Day. I will now turn the call over to George.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter results reflect a strong quarter relative to November guidance and are consistent with our update a few weeks ago. Fiscal first quarter revenues were $5.8 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.97, $0.12 above the midpoint of our original guidance. The outperformance primarily reflected stronger revenues in our licensing business and accelerated cost reductions in QCT. We also benefited at the end of the quarter from the permanent reinstatement of the R&D tax credit, impacting non-GAAP earnings per share by approximately $0.01 to $0.02. In QTL, higher-than-expected ASPs and shipments led to stronger revenues at $1.6 billion and more than offset the dispute impact in the quarter. Total reported device sales include some reported devices without the corresponding revenue from the LG dispute that Derek described, as well as some deferred three-mode revenues. QCT shipped 242 million MSMs, with revenues of $4.1 billion and operating margin of 14%, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand in the low tier, particularly in China, partially offset by lower-than- expected shipments of thin modems. For the Company, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were lower than our expectations, decreasing approximately 2% sequentially, reflecting an acceleration of some of our SRP cost initiatives originally forecasted to be taken later in the fiscal year. Operating cash flow was strong at $2.7 billion or 47% of revenue for the quarter and we returned $2.8 billion to stockholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. As of the end of the fiscal first quarter, we had approximately $4.9 billion of our stock repurchase authorization remaining. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 17% in the fiscal first quarter and we now estimate that our FY '16 non-GAAP tax rate will be approximately 18%, including the impact of the permanently reinstated R&D tax credit, down from our previous estimate of 19% to 20%. Now turning to FY '16, for QTL, we're not modifying the prior $7.3 billion to $8 billion revenue range for the year. However, that range did not anticipate deferral of revenues related to the LG dispute. While we're working hard to resolve this dispute and believe their claims are without merit, it is possible that the resolution will not occur in FY '16. In this case, the deferral of the LG revenue outside of the fiscal year could impact the range by several hundred miIlion dollars. In QCT, we continue to expect improving trends in the second half of the fiscal year on new product traction. We also continued to expect to achieve a QCT operating margin of 16% or better in the fiscal fourth quarter. We remain on track to meet the spending reduction objectives under the strategic realignment plan and now expect at least $700 million of savings in FY '16 and to exit the year at a savings run rate of $1.1 billion. We expect FY '16 non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be down approximately 2% to 4% year over year, down an additional 1% at the midpoint on earlier capture of cost savings relative to previous estimates. Turning to our guidance for the second quarter of FY '16, our outlook reflects a seasonally strong December quarter for 3G/4G device shipments for QTL and the seasonally lower first calendar quarter MSM shipments for QCT. Consistent with last quarter, our guidance does not include a forecast of potential revenue from signing new license agreements in China and we have excluded estimated revenue from LG as a result of the dispute. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.9 billion to $5.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.90 to $1 per share. We anticipate fiscal second quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be down approximately 2% to 4% sequentially, reflecting continued progress on our SRP initiatives. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $65 billion to $73 billion will be reported by our licensees in the March quarter for shipments they made in the December quarter, up approximately 14% sequentially at the midpoint, reflecting the seasonal strength of the holiday quarter. If the dispute-related units continue to be reported and the matter is not resolved during the quarter, then we could again see units included in PRDS for which revenue would not be recognized. Also in QTL, we're expecting a one-time benefit of approximately $250 million in revenue in the fiscal second quarter, based on termination of an infrastructure license agreement that resulted from one of our licensees acquiring another one of our licensees. This was partially offset by the end of a multi-year amortization of approximately $100 million in quarterly license fees. These events were expected and contemplated in our prior guidance. In QCT, we expect MSM shipments of approximately 175 million to 195 million units, lower sequentially, reflecting seasonal trends, somewhat exaggerated by an above seasonal decline in demand for thin modem products. We also see some modest negative impact from mix shift across OEMs and devices in China. We expect revenue per MSM to be higher quarter over quarter, reflecting stronger mix, including a lower mix of thin modem shipments. And consistent with our prior guidance, we expect QCT's fiscal second quarter operating margin percentage to be in the low to mid-single digits. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we're ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
MikeWalkley:
George, just following up on the QTL guidance, is that $250 million from the merger of your infrastructure customers, is that included in the guidance? I just wanted to clarify that. And then overall, longer term, as you look at QTL with the royalty rate and more three-mode devices coming in, Derek, can you just help us think about maybe the implied royalty rate going forward? That would be very helpful.
GeorgeDavis:
Sure, hi, Mike. This is George. Yes, the $250 million is included in the guidance. And remember, it is netted against the expiration of about $100 million a quarter from a previous multi-year agreement. Mike, this is Derek. On the implied royalty rate question, I think there are so many moving pieces on this, but let me give you a high-level view. I think there's going to be some lumpiness as we go forward just in terms of catch-up units coming in and some of those will be three-mode units for prior periods, as well as then as licensees start reporting more three-mode, that will put some pressure on the rate. Although, actually what we're seeing in the market in China is more of a shift to five- and six-mode devices and away from three-mode devices. And so a lot of the design traction has moved and I think as you go into the second half of 2016, we will probably start seeing, as a percentage of units in China, a reduction in the amount of three-mode on a go-forward basis.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
TimLong:
Just sticking on the royalty rate and the QTL business, Derek. First, I just wanted to make sure I understand. I guess there's the moving parts, but if the LG is a little more than $100 million and that number still seems like the calculated number would be 10 or 15 basis points under 3. So is that -- do we have a new reset to rate there or is there something else that dragged the number in the quarter down? And then, the unit numbers, the paid units were pretty good above what we've seen as normal seasonality. Can you break down for us how much of that was catch-up? Or maybe how much of that was contribution from some of these new deals that have been signed recently? Thank you.
DerekAberle:
On the rate, there's a few things affecting it in the quarter. We gave $100 million, we said more than $100 million and so we're not being entirely precise on that number. So I think you need to be a little bit careful about just taking it to the $100 million. But we also had some catch-up units come through in the quarter, for which we didn't have revenue in the quarter, given the structure of the deal in terms of when it's going to get paid out. That revenue we expect will come in in future quarters, so that's also having a drag. So you have got the disputed TRDS, as well as this three-mode element that is collectively putting some pressure on the rate. There are catch-up units in the quarter. I would say that they are not a huge contributor, but they are probably less than about 20 million units for the quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
KulbinderGarcha:
Can you just maybe talk through the drivers of the QCT modern decline into the next quarter? It seems like quite a severe drop. I know there's seasonality, but we haven't observed it to be that volatile in the past. That's the first question on QCT. And on QTL, Derek, maybe thinking about it another way, it looks like now, if my math is right, you've signed with vendors all -- with the new terms that account for almost 50%, 60% of the Chinese smartphone market. And I would've thought at some point, the increasing compliance in China will drive an uptick to the QTL revenue profile. It doesn't seem to be doing that, even if I take out the impact of LG this year. So how should we think about the future compliance of more vendors you want to sign up? Should that QTL revenue [indiscernible] reflecting that or are there other factors at work that we should think about this year? Thanks.
GeorgeDavis:
So on the margin decline quarter over quarter and again as a reminder, we actually guided this at last quarter's call as well. As you see, the big seasonal pull back in volumes and the mix change that we see, that has both an absorption of OpEx issue and a gross margin reduction element to it. And the combination of those at this level of revenue pulls it down to our forecast. I will say, as we've talked about, we see those dynamics actually reversing themselves and actually providing momentum into the back half of the year in terms of margin improvement. And we still see getting to 16% in Q4 in QCT.
DerekAberle:
Again, I think you got to break down the TRDS picture in China. There's really three elements. One is the underreporting which I think is largely referred to as the compliance issue. Then there is three-mode volume that is unlicensed and we're working actively to get companies signed up so that they start paying on three-mode. And then the third thing that we talked about last quarter were actually a small number of companies, but actually meaningful in size that had actually started withholding reports and payment of licensed non-three-mode units. And so as we conclude new agreements with those companies, you'll see a meaningful improvement in the run rate collection because there also tend to be some of the larger three-mode players in China. So you will capture the three-mode, plus you'll get them back reporting on the non-three-mode which will leave you really with this compliance question which will still be something we need to work through. But those two, I think it's really a relatively small number of companies that need to get signed and you'll see a pretty material improvement in the run rate in QTL.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
JamesFaucette:
I just had a couple of questions related to royalty collections. First, in the contract dispute with LG, can you give a little color there as to is this at all connected to the KFTC process within Korea? Or is resolution somehow of one dependent on the other? And then along those same lines, maybe if you could give any update on your engagement and progress with the different governments that are looking at Qualcomm's practices in Korea, Taiwan and the EU? Thank you very much.
DerekAberle:
I will take the first part of that. Really the dispute we have with LG is really unrelated to the issues that are before KFTC. We've had this throughout the history of the licensing program. It is just part of the business that will from time to time have disputes with our licensees. This is really a contract dispute under their agreement similar to a number of the ones we've had in the past which we have resolved successfully for the Company. And we feel very firmly that we're going to be able to do that again here. And so there will be a question of timing. We decided for now not to adjust the QTL revenue guidance for the year, because we still have three quarters left to resolve it. And we think there is a chance that that can happen. If it goes all the way through the arbitration process, that will likely push it outside the fiscal year. But we feel very good in our position and again, we've been through a number of these in the past and they have worked out well.
DonRosenberg:
In terms of the more color on some of the regulatory issues that we're dealing with, not much more color we can add other than to say our licensing model, as you know, has been in effect for quite a few decades. It's been modeled after others. Everybody in the industry follows the device-level licensing, for example. And we're very confident in the chances of trying to convince regulators that this model has not only been effective, but has enhanced competition. We have through our licensing model of sharing our intellectual property, I think we have broadened the field and our immense investment in research and development and the core technologies which we patent and then share I think has contributed to the growth of this industry. And hopefully, we will be able to demonstrate that as we go through these regulatory matters.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
RodHall:
I got a couple. First one I wanted to ask you, you talked about -- you said less than 20 million catch-up units in the quarter. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the potential timing of catch-up in China and what the outstanding unit number looks like. We have our estimates, but it would be nice to get some indication from you guys. And then I also wanted to talk a little bit about QTC margins again. Two questions within that. One is, can you give us some idea of what the fixed cost level there is? And should we be looking at fiscal Q1, fiscal Q2 and that margin move as some indication of where that number is? The second question I had is those margins are pretty strong in Q1 and just wondered if you could talk a little bit about what is going on underlying that since the mix was shifted to the low end. I would've thought that would drag margins down, but they were actually quite strong. So could you just comment on that? Thank you.
DerekAberle:
On the catch-up units and compliance, we've -- we gave some color on that in-- for the full-year FY '15. And if you looked at the delta between what we gave as the global device sales and the reported device sales, it was about 9% or $25 billion. So that was the range for 2015. For 2016, it's really going to be dependent, I think, highly on the timing of getting these additional agreements signed. The underlying underreporting by licensees that have agreements, I would say has largely been in line over the last couple of quarters. It's not materially improving or worsening; it's really been more the dynamic of the people that have withheld payment and reporting which will get resolved upon signing the agreement. So I think the rough-sizing that we gave for 2015 with that color hopefully will get you there.
GeorgeDavis:
On Q1, I think one of the things that you saw was better performance by QCT, particularly on OpEx pulling in some of the cost savings earlier into the year which actually helped that margin and improved that margin relative to our expectations going into the quarter. I would say that some of that has narrowed. In terms of the OpEx improvement quarter over quarter, you're not getting quite the move. So on lower revenue, OpEx as a percent of revenue is obviously going to weigh on the margin. And then of course, you just have the natural gross margin impact when you see a big seasonal adjustment in units and that's really what we're seeing. So nothing more than that and again, those things tend to reverse themselves, as I said earlier, in the second half of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona Jankowski:
Another question on the royalty rate, I just wanted to clarify again of the 2.65% implied rate in the quarter, if you took out the one-off impacts like the catch-up of the China licensees as well as the LG, what would that number have been? And then once we get past the March quarter and that one-time $250 million benefit from the infrastructure merger, did I understand you correctly that there is going to be a $100-million impact on the royalty rate collection on a go-forward basis past that? So effectively about a 15-basis-point hit to the implied rate? And then I have a follow-up.
Derek Aberle:
So I think last quarter, basically what we said about the implied royalty rate for the year, we said, listen it's going to be highly dependent on the timing of signing up some of the new agreements in China and moving people over to the CPLA rates. But on balance, we expected it to be down modestly for the year. So I would say if you adjusted for the impact of the disputed revenue and the reported sales in the quarter that didn't have revenue coming along with it because of the catch-up units, we would be broadly in line with that. You are correct, that once this amortization of the $100 million expires that will come out. We've talked about the fact that we have license fees and those are amortized over a period of time. So once those go way, that will become a drag. But that was anticipated. And so when we gave the color of what we expected the rate to do for the year with all of the moving pieces in mind, that was factored in.
Simona Jankowski:
Okay, so the clean rate for the quarter was something close to 3%. And then looking out a couple of quarters, like for like, it would come down to something like 2.8% once you remove the infrastructure amortization.
Derek Aberle:
Yes, that is generally correct. I would say that the second part of your question, it would imply no other changes. But we do think that there is some other things that could potentially play out throughout the year that would be a positive bias on the rate. So I think that's maybe the piece you're missing. But otherwise, I think that's generally right.
Simona Jankowski:
Okay, understood. And then just a quick separate question was on the comment about your server chips sampling with the tier-one hyperscale customers. When would you expect to see production volumes? And when would you expect that to be something that can move the needle for QCT?
Derek Aberle:
When we first started talking about this, we were pretty clear that we're going to be in investment mode for a period of time here before this becomes a meaningful contributor. We're very positive on the signs we're seeing, both in North America with the large cloud players, as well as in China. And so you'll start seeing some shipments within probably the next year or so. But really, when you think about it as a contributor, it's going to be out a few years.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri:
I had two the first one is on M&A. Obviously, you have a lot of offshore cash and I just wanted to get your opinion. I think that the TDK deal was great, but I wanted to get your opinion on maybe something bigger, some sort of transformational deal that maybe you could do in QCT. So, just wanted to get your general thoughts there.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure Timothy, it's Steve Mollenkopf. The way we think about it is we obviously have the ability to execute on something like that. We don't feel like there's really a gun to our had to be able to have to do it. We feel we have a good growth path. But we're pleased to be able to return the cash that we have and will continue to do and have options to do that. As the industry consolidates, I think we're going to consider ourselves to be getting in a stronger position versus a weaker position to be able to take advantage of that trends that I spoke about it my script. So, we feel like we're in a good spot, but we don't feel like we have to do something in order to grow.
Timothy Arcuri:
And then a question for George, on the 185 million MSMs in March, can you give maybe a sense in terms of how many of the new design wins for 820 are included in that number? Or is that more of a June event? Thanks.
George Davis:
Yes, I can't give you the specifics too much on that. But what I can tell you is that we really see the 820 as more of a second half. We certainly see that we'll be shipping some devices in the latter part of this quarter, but it's really going to be more evident in the second half of the year. And maybe Cristiano, I'll let you jump in on that. It's -- we're seeing more -- it's more -- I would say Q2 is more of a strong season effect with an exaggerated effect, as I said in my prepared remarks, on thin modem.
Cristiano Amon:
Just one comment, I think it's very optimistic about the 820 design traction. Right now, we're supporting key flagship designs through care recertification, then volume ramp will happen the second half of FY '16.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Tal Liani:
Just one clarification before my question, you said in response to what Simona asked you, you said that there are positives on the rate that could come through the rest of the year. Outside of LG coming back, is there any other positive on the royalty rate that could -- any other positive that could impact the royalty rate? So that's question number one. Question number two is about the implications of 820 in the second half of the year. Can you discuss the implications on margins and the implications on ASPs? I think the ASPs are quite straightforward. But the question is, when you start ramping 820, does it have positive implications on margins right from the beginning? Or to the contrary, it has negative implications at first until you ramp to a certain level or you expense certain expenses and only then it goes up? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
On your first question, there are couple of things. Really the primary positive driver would be OEM mix. So share gain by companies that are paying a higher running royalty rate than others and we think there is some potential for that as the year progresses.
Cristiano Amon:
On the 820, I think as we said is the volume ramp is going to be in the second half of the year, that's where we go into mass production. But I think we feel pretty good about the 820 and the overall economics. I also think we're on, as we said, on a 14 LPP process node. Another thing to think about [indiscernible] the second half is, we're seeing increased design traction across all tiers, not only the 820, in particular in China because of the acceleration of LTE Advanced which is 4G plus and the all mode that was mentioned by Derek earlier.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Rasgon:
I have two, first on the chipset guide, I know you're pointing to a seasonal effect, obviously driven by -- exasperated by thin modems. At the same time, it's a 24% quarter-over quarter decline, 57 million units. I think this is your biggest sequential chipset decline ever. Can you give us or at least help us parse out the impact of the seasonal effect? Is there any inventory flushing going on? Do you think this is a normal run rate exiting the quarter? How should we be thinking about those other seasonal drivers impacting that guide? And for my second question, you have this $100 million license amortization rolling off. Do you have any other licensees with amortization that's rolling off, say within the next three years?
George Davis:
Let me just respond to the chipset guide question. So I would say it, we're certainly seeing above normal seasonality in this quarter, in particular on the thin modem side. We have also seen some OEM mix in China having an effect. But I would say that is a deep third effect to what is a seasonal first, above seasonal in modem and then some modest OEM mix where customers of ours are ceding some share to customers that use other devices.
Derek Aberle:
On the amortization question, we have over the years done different kinds of deals, some of which have license fees that are amortized over a period of time. And so there are things that come into the amortization and go out. That's just an ongoing basis, but beyond that, you saw an acceleration of $250 million of license fees that would've been amortized over a longer period of time that will come in next quarter. And those are really the two that we're highlighting this time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis McCourt:
George, just to make sure I have -- the $250 million coming in, that is coming in through QTL, correct? And then, I think you mentioned in the prepared comments outside of the thin modem customer, I forget if the verbiage was you're seeing some strength or least stability in emerging markets in your chipset business. That is not completely obvious to me why that should be typically in a strong dollar environment, handset sales can really get hurt in emerging market. So I'm wondering if you're just not seeing that yet? Or is there some channel inventory issues going on? Or perhaps some market share gains as we exited last year and enter this year. And then a final one for you, Steve, on the TDK joint venture. You mentioned gas PAs and wasn't sure if you were referring to having them sampling in FY '17? Or we should see those in commercial products in FY '17? Thank you.
George Davis:
So on the $250 million, that will be reported in QTL. In terms of what we're seeing in the channel, I would say we're not seeing an unusual inventory build like we saw a couple of quarters ago, with the exception, like I said, we're probably seeing a stronger-than-normal seasonal pullback in thin modems. But that's really what I would say is more of the outlier for our quarter.
Cristiano Amon:
Just to add a comment, I think when you look at the Q2 $185 million midpoint of the guidance, I think what we said is the China was a very minor impact. It's not any unexpected design change. What it is the mix of OEMs in the marketplace. We saw a slight increase of volume for an OEM that is not used in QCT as a vertical OEM in China, but I think it's very minor. The main thing really is seasonality and the thin modem demand adjustment.
Steve Mollenkopf:
This is Steve, just one other additional thing. Really what's driving worldwide unit demand for the products is just the transition to 4G. So you're still only seeing what something like 14% of the market is using 4G now and that continues to be a positive trend for us across tiers. With respect to TDK, the TDK commentary and the gallium arsenide PAs, we will be in production in 2017 and I think comfortably so. So we expect to see products in the market using those PAs in that timeframe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA Securities, please go ahead.
Srini Pajjuri:
A couple of questions, first a clarification, George, on the annual guidance for licensing, I'm just curious if LG is impacting only $100 million or is it $100 million per quarter? And then a follow-up to Steve's question or answer on the gas PA and TDK deal. Steve, obviously RF market in general has been growing very nicely over the past few years and some would argue that actually that market is slowing down now. It grew very nicely last two years ago and it is beginning to slow down now. I'm just curious as to why the deal now? What do you see out there that gives you that this is the right time to invest more aggressively in this market?
George Davis:
So the LG impact that we talked about of over $100 million is a quarterly number, so the annual impact, of course, is going to be dependent on what their royalty obligation would be for the year, relative to the guidance range. It was not anticipated or included in the $7.3 billion to $8 billion range. So it would be an adjustment to that and it really will be a function of when it is resolved as to what the potential impact would be until then.
Steve Mollenkopf:
On the RF front-end business, I think it continues to be a very large TAM that for us, we haven't been participating in outside really largely by our envelope tracking business. And like all of our RF businesses or analog businesses, they are actually, that's a good, profitable business. So our ability to grow that, even within that TAM is, I think a good story for us. Our view of the market is that you're going to need to have all the pieces, filter, module, PA, base fans, switches to really be meaningful as a long term player. And that that capability will continue to be important, not only in the handset market, but also across all of the connectivity markets that open up as everything becomes connected and certainly in 5G. So we think that's a good set of assets. We will be able to grow that moving forward. We've got some execution to do to prove that. But we feel like we're getting the right pieces and we're going to make it happen.
Operator:
Your final question comes from line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity. Please go ahead.
Edward Snyder:
On the same theme on the RF, I think you launched RF 360 in early 2013 and now you've got the TDK [ph] relationship which expands upon that. Should we expect revenue from RF material to consolidate results in FY '17? Or is that something more of a 2018 event? And then with respect to the RF products you're selling now, do you anticipate that you'll be selling these RF modules into solutions that don't use your base -- obviously your solutions that do use base benefits, you would be a natural home for those. But do you think you are intending to reach beyond where you are, your baseband sockets wins move out to general markets? And then a follow-up if I could on makeshift in QCT
George Davis:
We will consolidate as soon as we close the transaction, because we will have 51% and effective control from a reporting standpoint. In terms of supporting other devices and other customers, we would anticipate continuing to do that just as TDK does today.
Edward Snyder:
Would this show up in one of the existing segments once the consolidated [indiscernible] are you considering breaking it out on its own group?
George Davis:
It will be reported in QCT.
Edward Snyder:
Okay. And finally, was the mix shift away from thin modems in the December period, was that a major component in this sequential increase in QCT margins? Or was it not really material?
Cristiano Amon:
I think George answered that earlier. I think one of the things where we're ahead of the plan of delivering some of the cost savings that we had a part of our strategic realignment plan. I think that has been a key contributor of our stronger margin in Q1.
Operator:
This is our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have any further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure, I just want to thank everyone for attending the call today. We're executing on the plan to get the Company growing again. We're focused on improving licensing in China. I look forward to the second half of the year as our new products ramp. I also want to remind everyone that we will hold our Analyst Day in San Diego in two weeks, where we will go into more detail on our strategy and priorities. I will close by thanking all of the Qualcomm employees on their hard work and for delivering a stronger-than-expected Q1. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director Derek K. Aberle - President George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Tavis C. McCourt - Analyst, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
Analysts:
Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co. James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Stacy A. Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets LLC Alex D. Gauna - JMP Securities LLC George M. Iwanyc - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Vijay R. Rakesh - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc. Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc. Srini R. Pajjuri - CLSA Americas LLC
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2015 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 4, 2015. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 60312462. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steven Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. On our Investor Relations website, you can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call. This call is also being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay of the call will be available on the website later today. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. As well, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual results or events could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent 10-K which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from QUALCOMM's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results, which were at the high end of our prior expectations. Performance was better than expected in QCT, driven by stronger than expected MSM shipments. We are pleased with our progress in QCT, and we are entering 2016 with a strong product roadmap and a clear path to revenue and margin improvement. This performance was partially offset by delays in concluding new license agreements in China and share gains by Chinese OEMs that have been under-reporting royalties in QTL. Despite near-term results, the overall QTL business remains strong with a healthy industry backdrop. And we are highly focused on taking actions to close the gap between global 3G/4G devices sales and total reported device sales. Before we get to the details, I want to take a step back and review our progress in 2015 and key business drivers. We faced a number of challenges in fiscal 2015, and we've taken aggressive actions to address these challenges and drive meaningful change to improve performance. At the same time, we are continuing to drive innovation and growth through investments in our core businesses and emerging growth areas. First, the NDRC resolution in February was essential milestone, removing significant uncertainty and providing a framework for our licensing business in China going forward. Second, we executed a major increase in our capital return program, one of the largest in the tech sector, reducing our share count by 9% year over year. Third, we remained focused on addressing areas within our control, including making sure we have the right cost structure for the future, a corporate structure that maximizes value and will position us for the strategic opportunities ahead within a dynamic industry landscape, the appropriate capital structure and level of dividends and share repurchases, the optimal board composition and management incentives, and a capital allocation plan that ensures that our investment dollars are spent in areas with the most promising risk adjusted returns. We are on track with the strategic realignment plan announced in July, and we are making excellent progress on each of the initiatives. In the fourth quarter, we made significant progress in implementing our $1.4 billion cost reduction plan. We took action to decrease spend in QCT and reduce investments outside of QCT and QTL with the recently closed sale of Vuforia and significant reductions in areas such as display. We are on track with a review of financial and structural alternatives and continue to expect to complete the review by the end of the calendar year. Our two new board members have already made valuable contributions and we are in the process of adding another new member to the board. We have also implemented changes to our executive compensation plans that further align our compensation with performance. In fiscal year 2015, we remained extremely focused on driving our position in key adjacent areas. In August, we completed the acquisition of CSR, which we expect to drive meaningful growth for QCT in key adjacencies such as automotive and IoE. Finally, QUALCOMM's innovation pipeline remains strong. Our technology and product roadmap continues to lead the industry and we are investing to drive the next wave of growth in mobile as well as in other opportunities. We are excited about our latest products, including the Snapdragon 820, and expect momentum for these products to build through fiscal 2016 and into 2017. Before turning to the business, I want to comment on the change we've made to our approach to guidance. Going forward, we will provide quarterly financial guidance as we've always done but adjust our approach to annual guidance. We will continue to provide certain industry and financial metrics, but we will no longer provide guidance on total company annual revenue and earnings per share. To help you with this transition, we will continue to provide certain fiscal year information for 2016 which George will detail shortly. This change aligns our guidance practices more closely with our semiconductor and large-cap tech peers. To be clear, we're not changing any of our long-term guidance metrics provided prior to this call. Specifically, our 20%-plus operating margin target for QCT, our 86% to 88% operating margin target for QTL, or our ongoing capital return commitments. We also continue to target a QCT operating margin of at least 16% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. In QTL, our path to growth is driven by continued strong unit growth in emerging regions, the replacement trends in developed regions that we have previously explained, and the adoption of 3G/4G cellular connectivity in adjacent segments. In China, we have been working hard to implement the NDRC licensing terms and improve compliance. While we have made progress with these negotiations and concluded new agreements recently with two major Chinese OEMs, progress has been slower than we had originally anticipated. The timing of concluding new agreements and progress with compliance is inherently difficult to predict, but we fully expect to successfully conclude new agreements and improve compliance over time. In the near-term, these factors will continue to impact our ability to grow the licensing business in line with global 3G/4G device sales. However, as we work through the compliance and licensing matters, we expect our growth rate to converge with the rate of global 3G/4G device sales growth. Depending on the amount of catch-up reporting, we could exceed global 3G/4G device sales growth for a period of time. QTL remains a source of significant strength for QUALCOMM and we are confident in our long-term QTL business outlook based on continued growth of 3G/4G across mobile devices and new product categories, as well as our continued innovation in new mobile technologies. Let me now turn to QCT. Fiscal 2016 will be a transition year for this business, and we expect our performance in the second half of the year to be much stronger than in the first half, which will continue to be affected by the factors that impacted 2015. Our performance improvement will be driven by our strong lineup of new chipsets across tiers, benefits from our cost reduction efforts, operational improvements, and reduced product costs as we transition to the 14 nanometer node. Specifically, at the premium tier, we are seeing strong customer interest in Snapdragon 820 among leading OEMs with more than 60 designs overall. We have launched our fifth-generation Snapdragon X12 LTE modem, which offers industry leading throughput and power efficiency with support for all modes and the latest Cat 12 downlink and Cat 13 uplink capabilities. We have confidence in customer traction and expect it to be a significant product for us in the second half of the fiscal year. In addition, we are upgrading our mid and low tier roadmaps. We recently announced our new Snapdragon 430 and 617 processors which have added support for carrier aggregation with X7 and X8 LTE modems respectively, and new support for dual cameras. We are also continuing to expand in adjacent areas where we can build off our differentiated skill set and core IP roadmap in smartphones to create new revenue opportunities. To highlight just a few examples, in the networking space we launched a Wave 2 802.11ac Wi-Fi system-on-a-chip for routers, gateways and access points. We also expanded our portfolio for smart carrier home gateways following our acquisition of Ikanos Communications. In the IoT space, we launched a reference design for IP cameras, new LTE Cat 1 and Cat-M modems for connected devices, and the Snapdragon Flight Reference Design for consumer drones. The IoE applications for QUALCOMM technologies are vast, and I believe we are just at the beginning. We also continue to advance our position in the compute space with three tiers of Snapdragon LTE modems for Windows 10 notebooks, 2-in-1s and tablets. Further, CSR expands our distribution channels and strengthens our position by accelerating our time to market in the key IoE and automotive segments. Revenues from our adjacent business areas, automotive, mobile compute, IoE and networking delivered approximately 10% of QCT revenues in fiscal 2015, and we expect this to grow significantly in 2016 with the addition of a full year of CSR revenues as well as through organic growth. We expect our momentum in QCT to continue into fiscal 2017 and beyond. As we did in both 3G and 4G, we are investing to lead the industry in the development of 5G technologies such as a unified air interface with optimized OFDM-based waveforms. 5G will offer native support to unlicensed spectrum and enhanced mobile broadband performance and enable connectivity for the Internet of Everything as well as new types of services that require lower latency and higher reliability and security. Our focus on 5G, along with leadership in LTE advanced and Wi-Fi, including Wi-Fi 802.11ad in 60 gigahertz, allows us to offer integrated modem solutions that leverage licensed and unlicensed bands. We are enabling mobile operators and new wireless players such as cable companies to deploy a multitude of new services to their subscribers. We've announced LTE-U chipset support for small cells and mobile devices, and operators in the US including Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile are commencing trials as early as this year, with some of them planning for initial commercial deployments in 2016. We are well positioned to address this increasing complexity of wireless networks and bands by offering integrated solutions at scale and enabling rapid worldwide deployment capability to our partners. We are confident in our leading technology and multiyear roadmap and we are focused on improving the efficiency of our operations and taking advantage of the significant opportunities for growth available to us. We believe our business initiatives will enable QUALCOMM to drive value and growth momentum so that we exit fiscal 2016 on an improving financial trajectory. With that, I will turn the call over to Derek.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. Fiscal 2015 was a record year for QTL with total reported device sales, revenues and earnings before tax all reaching record levels. We concluded the NDRC investigation and resolved a dispute with a major Chinese licensee. We launched a significant effort to implement the terms of the NDRC resolution in China, including signing licenses for 3-mode devices and to improve compliance by our licensees. Looking ahead, the outlook for global 3G/4G device sales continues to be strong. We expect low single digit percentage growth in global 3G/4G device sales in fiscal 2016. However, longer-term we expect stronger global 3G/4G device sales growth as unit growth continues to stay strong and annual ASP declines further moderate over time. We estimate that global 3G/4G device shipments will grow approximately 14% in calendar 2015 and 10% in calendar 2016 at the midpoint, driven primarily by the migration to 3G/4G devices in emerging regions and cellular connectivity growth in adjacent segments outside of handsets. We expect global 3G/4G device ASPs to decline at a more moderate rate in fiscal 2016 versus fiscal 2015, although still at a higher rate than we expect over the longer term. This outlook reflects a number of factors including heavier than normal discounting of high premium tier devices in the near term and continued share gains by Chinese OEMs that are currently selling at lower prices than other licensees. Over the longer term, we expect ASP declines to moderate for a variety of reasons including OEM consolidation in China and increasing device ASPs by Chinese OEMs, as well as users in emerging regions replacing devices at higher price points. We are continuing to aggressively seek to conclude new license agreement with Chinese OEMs on the NDRC terms and improve compliance with Chinese licensees. To date we have offered the NDRC license terms for our current 3G and 4G essential Chinese patents to our licensees and to a number of unlicensed OEMs and manufacturers. We are continuing to make progress with these negotiations and recently concluded new agreements with two major Chinese OEMs, ZTE and TCL, on terms consistent with the NDRC terms. This brings the total number of new China patent license agreements we have signed to over 60. Importantly, these agreements also include royalty bearing licenses for 3-mode devices. While we continue to make progress in our continued interactions with the NDRC and other parts of the Chinese government give us confidence that we will be able to conclude agreements with all of the important OEMs, the negotiations with a handful of these licensees are taking longer than we previously expected. In some of these cases, although the licensees acknowledged they need to pay royalties to QUALCOMM, we believe in connection with the negotiations they have stopped reporting certain of their sales and royalties or did not report their sales and royalties in a manner that allows us to record revenue. Similar to the dispute we resolved during fiscal 2015 with a major Chinese OEM that resulted in a catch-up payment for prior period amounts, we expect these licensees will report and pay the royalties they are improperly withholding once we conclude new license agreements with them. While we continue to work to conclude new license agreements and improve compliance through commercial negotiations and audits, we are actively preparing to enforce our agreements and/or take other actions against OEMs that are not negotiating in good faith, under-reporting royalties, or refusing to conclude agreements within a reasonable period of time. We have a number of tools at our disposable that can be deployed both within and outside of China that we believe will ultimately resolve this activity. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, the global 3G/4G device sales were in line with our expectations but total reported device sales for the quarter came in below the low end of our guidance range, primarily as a result of the Chinese licensees I just mentioned refusing to report royalties, slower than previously expected progress on signing license agreements covering 3-mode devices, and Chinese OEMs that are either unlicensed or under-reporting royalties growing at a faster rate than the overall market and thereby gaining share. These factors resulted in approximately $200 million less in QTL revenue for the fourth quarter as compared to our prior expectations and lower than expected QTL operating margin. We expect QTL operating margin be flat to down quarter over quarter in the first quarter of fiscal 2016 but then improve with revenue growth throughout the rest of the year. We expect the factors that impacted our fiscal 2015 fourth quarter results will continue to impact the licensing business until we conclude additional license agreements with the remaining major Chinese OEMs and improve reporting compliance, the timing of which is difficult to predict. Despite our expectation for continued progress, given this inherent uncertainty, we are taking a cautious approach to our QTL guidance. Under this scenario, total reported device sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2016 are expected to be in the range of $50 billion to $58 billion and fiscal year 2016 QTL revenue is expected to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion. The key drivers between the low and the high end of the fiscal 2016 range are the timing of concluding new license agreements with the remaining major Chinese OEMs and the pace at which our efforts to improve compliance deliver results. The $7.3 billion low end of the range assumes a meaningful year over year increase in the number of unreported device by Chinese OEMs, little to no progress on signing new license agreements or amendments with Chinese OEMs and no significant catch-up amounts related to prior periods or audit recoveries. The $8 billion high end of the range assumes meaningful progress in a number of these areas but does not reflect the reporting of royalties on the full fiscal 2016 global 3G/4G device sales or the receipt of catch-up amounts for all prior period sales. It is also important to understand that we expect QTL fiscal 2016 revenue growth will be impacted by the full year effect of applying the NDRC terms for sales in China as compared to only a partial year in 2015, and expected year-over-year increase in reported mix to more 3-mode sales as the year progresses and a full year effect of FX headwinds. We are not satisfied with the gap that exists between the global 3G/4G device sales and total reported device sales, and we are highly focused on taking actions to close that gap and collect catch-up payments from prior period under-reporting as quickly as possible. We continue to expect QTL revenue to track global 3G/4G device sales growth over the longer term and catch-up payments to provide additional growth as we work through these issues. We expect roughly similar seasonality in fiscal 2016 as in prior years with December shipments driving a stronger fiscal second quarter for QTL. Depending on the pace of progress in China, the implied royalty rate that you calculate based on the information we provide is expected to be down modestly in fiscal 2016 as compared to where we exited fiscal 2015, based primarily on an increase in devices being reported under the NDRC terms, including 3-mode devices. In conclusion, we continue to see favorable long-term market trends for our licensing business and remain confident that we will be able to conclude new agreements with the remaining Chinese OEMs and improve compliance over time. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to George.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon everyone. I will begin with comments on our fiscal fourth quarter results, update you on our cost reduction initiatives, provide our first quarter guidance and then discuss some key metrics for fiscal 2016. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we delivered revenues of $5.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.91. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licensees were $58.3 billion, below the low end of our guidance range for the reasons Derek described. QCT had a stronger than expected quarter with revenues of $3.6 billion and an operating margin of 8%. While industry trends in the quarter were mostly in line with our July expectations, we also saw incremental demand strength for low tier devices, particularly at a large customer. Revenue per MSM continued to reflect the mix shift toward modem-only products at a large OEM in the premium tier. We closed the CSR acquisition in August, which contributed approximately $80 million in revenue in the quarter and was marginally accretive to our non-GAAP results. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were down 2% sequentially on cost controls and spending reductions under our strategic realignment plan. During the fiscal fourth quarter, we returned $3 billion to stockholders including approximately $738 million of dividends paid and $2.2 billion in share repurchases. We also completed our $5 billion accelerated share repurchase program that we launched last May. Additionally, since the end of the fiscal fourth quarter, we have repurchased an additional 24.6 million shares for approximately $1.4 billion. During fiscal 2015, we returned over 300% of free cash flow to our stockholders on share repurchases of $11.2 billion and dividends of $2.9 billion, which included the 14% dividend increase we announced in March. These actions represent significant progress on our SRP commitment to reaffirm our ongoing return of 75% of free cash flow in dividends and share repurchases in addition to our commitment of an incremental $10 billion in share repurchases by March of 2016. We are on track to achieve the $1.4 billion of spending reductions related to the SRP. As a reminder, the $1.4 billion number includes a $300 million reduction in annual employee stock grants and a $1.1 billion, or approximately 15%, reduction in non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A and engineering spend in cost of goods sold. This plan excludes the impact of acquisitions. We continue to expect fiscal 2016 results to benefit from $600 million of these cost reductions which represents approximately 8% of the SRP spending baseline. Fiscal 2015 spending came in approximately $200 million below the SRP baseline. This includes approximately $100 million of SRP cost reductions as well as lower than baseline variable compensation, which combined impacts the year-over-year comparison by approximately 2% relative to the baseline. Including recent acquisitions, of which CSR is the largest, we expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expense will be down approximately 1% to 3% year over year. Without the acquisitions, we would be lower by approximately 6% to 8% year over year. Our IR website provides an updated overview of the SRP spending reductions, including the impact of acquisitions. During our fiscal fourth quarter, severance and others costs related to the plan were $190 million and were excluded from non-GAAP earnings. We continue to expect the range of charges to be $350 million to $450 million. And as previously discussed, our cost actions ramp throughout fiscal 2016 and are more heavily weighted to the back half of the fiscal year. Let's now turn to our outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2016. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.2 billion to $6 billion, up approximately 3% sequentially at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our first fiscal quarter to be approximately $0.80 to $0.90 per share, down 7% sequentially at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal first quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up 2% to 4% sequentially, reflecting a full quarter of CSR in our results and increased variable compensation accruals, partially offset by the early stage benefits of the SRP cost reduction program. For the reasons Derek explained, we're taking a more cautious approach in providing our QTL guidance for the fiscal first quarter. In QTL, we expect total reported device sales for the fiscal first quarter, reflecting reports of our licensees for shipments they made in the September quarter, to be in the range of $50 billion to $58 billion, down approximately 7% sequentially at the midpoint, driven by the China impacts that Derek described as well as a sequential decline in the ASP, but to a lesser degree than the decline we experienced in the same quarter last year. In QCT for our fiscal first quarter, we expect MSM shipments will be in the range of approximately 225 million to 245 million units, up approximately 16% sequentially at the midpoint, reflecting the seasonally strong fourth calendar quarter and our view of a more normalized inventory environment. We expect healthy demand growth for our modems and high and mid tier chipsets providing support for QCT operating margins to be at 10% or slightly better. With respect to our annual guidance, we're providing our outlook for global 3G/4G adoption trends including calendar year 3G/4G unit shipments and fiscal year global 3G/4G device sales. We are also providing fiscal year guidance on operating expenses, combined interest expense and investment income, and tax rate. We expect the industry trends we saw develop in the second half of fiscal 2015, particularly in the premium tier, to continue to impact QCT in the first half of fiscal 2016. Consistent with prior years, we expect QCT's fiscal second quarter to be down sequentially with operating margins in the low to mid single digits, driven primarily by seasonally lower MSM shipments, annual pricing resets, and increased costs tied to the ramp of new products. We expect improving product mix from new chipset introductions, particularly in the second half of fiscal 2016, resulting in improved revenue per MSM. Combined with the benefits of our cost savings over time, this mix shift underpins the improvement we see in QCT's profitability in the fiscal fourth quarter. We continue to expect QCT to improve to at least a 16% operating margin in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2016. In QTL, as Derek commented, our guidance reflects the timing uncertainty in China inherent in signing new licensing agreements and resolving compliance issues. This scenario implies a range of QTL revenue from $7.3 billion at the low end of the range to $8 billion, approximately flat year over year, at the high end of the range with progress on signing new licensing agreements and other compliance measures the key drivers of that range. Combined interest expense and investment income is expected to be lower by approximately $400 million year over year, with about half from interest expense related to higher average debt balances, and the other half reflecting lower expected realized gains on financial market conditions as well as lower investment balances due to our expanded return of capital initiatives. We estimate our non-GAAP fiscal 2016 tax rate to be approximately 19% to 20%. That will conclude my comments, and I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Thank you very much. I just wanted to clarify a little bit more what is causing the hold up in the collections within QTL, especially considering that the couple of large licensees you cited are taking the NDRC terms rather than your traditional more flexible terms. So it would seem like that's little bit more cut and dry. And then as far as what you're assuming in the guidance for QTL for the first fiscal quarter, it sounded like you're not really assuming any recovery of the prior royalties even though you've just signed a couple of the licensees, ZTE and TCL. So I just wanted to clarify if the catch up for those two is included or why wouldn't you be seeing some improvement just from those two alone?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Hi, Simona. This is Derek. Yes, really in China, I think it's much of the same story that has been playing out through the year. We are making progress, as you said. We signed both ZTE and TCL this quarter, which I think is good continued traction on significant OEMs, now that's added to the list with Huawei that have accepted the NDRC terms. But there are a handful of still significant Chinese OEMs that we're continuing to negotiate with and as we noted before, these things are difficult to predict from a timing standpoint. And so we're going to continue to work through that and as we do, we expect that the picture will improve moving forward. I would say the thing that's a little bit new this time is as the negotiations have progressed, you have discussions around 3-mode licensing where the companies were unlicensed in the past and therefore not paying while the negotiation progresses, but in most other cases, licensees have continued to report and pay on their non 3-mode devices, such as WCDMA devices. And that is a little bit different this quarter in the sense that a handful or less than a handful of these companies have actually, we think as a negotiating tactic, stopped reporting and paying similar to what we went through last year when we were dealing with the other dispute with the Chinese OEM, which ultimately got resolved as you may recall, with a catch-up payment coming in. So again our feeling is that in the end, we will get these agreements concluded, and when that happens, these payments will come in. But we are taking a cautious approach to the guidance for Q1 as well as the full fiscal year in QTL just because the timing of these things is uncertain. On ZTE and TCL in particular, those companies were reporting royalties while we were negotiating those deals, so even though we signed, there will not be significant catch-up payments coming through, although there will be some royalties coming in on 3-mode. Those players are not the largest players in the 3-mode space in China.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. And James, please make sure that your line's not on mute.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Sorry. It was on mute. So I just want to ask a clarifying question there, Derek. On Huawei, ZTE and TCL, it sounds like then whatever catch-ups – or should we assume that all the catch-ups from those players are either quite small or already built into the reported numbers in the December quarter guide? And then I wanted to ask quickly about chipset shipments, what drove the upside to your estimates in the December quarter? It seemed like coming out of the June quarter that you were concerned about overall channel inventory and you seemed to imply that came down in spite of the much stronger shipments. So I'm just wondering where the upside came from. And then finally, George, in the September quarter results and the December quarter outlook, how much of a contribution are you getting from CSR for those two periods? Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
This is Derek. On the first one, actually Huawei was signed earlier in the year, didn't come through this quarter. And as to TCL and ZTE, there will be some catch-up payments that come through December, but they're relatively small in comparison. So you should think about the cautious Q1 guidance as really not reflecting resolution of these pending negotiated agreements or any catch-ups that would flow through there.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
James, this is Steve. With respect to the chipset shipments in Q4, what happened was really there was a broad-based improvement in share relative to expectations in that quarter, in particular at a large customer, our mid and low tier shipments were stronger than we expected. So I think we're exiting the fiscal year a bit stronger than we would have said we were going to exit in July. So we're pleased with that.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
James, this is George. On CSR contribution, it was $80 million in revenue in the quarter. It was very modestly accretive, so if you back that out, you can see that we were above the midpoints of our guidance without consideration of CSR.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. Maybe just give China a break, over to the chips again. Two things on the margins here. First, could you just talk a little bit – it looks to us like the gross margin did improve in the quarter. Was that just a mix thing or are we starting to see either better pricing discipline or some of the benefits of the restructuring program taking effect and could we expect that to continue? And then related to it, talking about $400 million in OpEx coming on from the acquisitions, seems a bit large. Is that a number that will be subject to the similar type of analysis about a restructuring program that the rest of the QCT business went through? So in other words, is there opportunity to move that number lower being combined with the broader QUALCOMM? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Tim, it's George. On gross margin, I would say it was more a function of mix that you were seeing in the quarter. And if I look at acquisitions, that includes, I should point out since we were talking about it in the context of the baseline for the strategic realignment plan that that was, includes the engineering spend within cost of goods sold as well. So now again, the majority is OpEx. We will have synergy plans and we do have synergy plans for both of the acquisitions that are included in that, and again CSR being the largest. We're going to talk about our view on these acquisitions and the synergy plans as part of the Analyst Meeting which we expect to be in the first quarter, and we'll give you little more color there. So we will execute on the synergy plans, but it is not part of the strategic realignment plan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great, thanks. Derek, just going back to the units, can you ballpark for us how many units you think you weren't paid for in fiscal 2015 and where you think that gap can close to? Has it been as much as 20% of units under-reported in the last one or two quarters?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Mike, without really getting into the units, because I don't think we have broken that out, if you actually look at the metrics we did give, we gave you a global 3G/4G device sales number for the fiscal 2015 year and the midpoint of that is about $275 billion-ish, and if you look at where we rolled up for the reported TRDS at about $251 billion-ish. You can see that the gap there's a little more than $24 billion of TRDS for fiscal 2015. That probably was a little more back half weighted versus front half weighted, but the delta is more in the range of approximately 9%.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to understand, it seems like ASP for MSM is down. Obviously more thin modems may contribute to that in the December quarter. And then as you look into next year, if you just comment on the progress of the 820. You said customer acceptance, there has obviously been some talk again about issues with that. You would think that would have a positive impact for your MSM ASPs. When would you expect to get a more material contribution from that product?
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Blayne. It's George. I'll just give you the quick overview. We do think revenue per MSM improves throughout the year on mix. It is driven by our view of the premium tier improving in the second half, and first part of the year, we see much more of a weighting of the impact on the modem on the business driving the mix effects in the first part of the year. Steve?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
On the 820, it's looking great and the customer feedback is quite strong on it. It's going to be something that contributes in the second half of the year. It's certainly not going to be in the first quarter necessarily. But we have high hopes for that product, and you heard me say that customer traction is quite strong. It's over 60 designs. I think it's going to be a good product for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, hi guys. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask about the QTL margins. They were depressed in the September quarter and then the guidance on our math anyway seems to suggest that they're at least flat and probably down in the fiscal Q1. I wonder first of all if we got that right on the QTL margins. And then could you comment on what those margins are likely to do next year? Are they likely to stay at these same depressed levels or do you think they bounce back as you recover more of the unreported revenue? Just kind of give us some idea for what the trajectory of that looks like. Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Rod, this is Derek. Yes, I think you got it right. It's really largely a revenue driven story. There's a little bit of the OpEx that rolls through in the current quarter that we wouldn't expect to see again in next quarter. But you know, it's really a revenue story. So as the year progresses and we make progress, we do believe the margins will be stronger kind of as we move forward through the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks. A question for Derek. Just on the QTL business, as I look at it from a fiscal year perspective, you're basically implying it's going to shrink. The overall TAM is expanding, which you talked about. And then I've got to assume that in fiscal year 2016 versus 2015 you're having more of the under-reported units that were there paying you. So it should kind of grow, I think. So is it because the people that are under-reporting last year are gaining so much share that that's having a negative impact on the QTL revenue line? Is that one of the drivers I'm missing? Or is something happening to the actual royalty rate going down for some sort of mix? Can you just comment on, is there something wrong with that high level way of thinking about fiscal year 2016 from fiscal year 2015 numbers on the QTL side? Or is there any other facts I should think about? Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Kulbinder, this is Derek. Yeah, let me try to break it down. So if you think about the end market, the global TRDS we expect will grow kind of low single digit over fiscal 2015. So there will be some growth there, but not as strong as we saw last year. We think that that actually picks up over time as the ASP declines further moderate and we continue to see good unit growth. But in 2016 in particular, the growth is somewhat muted. On top of that, you do have some headwinds facing the business and I mentioned them in my remarks. One is that in 2015 we had a partial year effect of the Chinese companies that accepted the new NDRC terms, reporting under those terms as opposed to the old ones, which were higher. In 2016 we would have a full year impact of that. In addition we had some FX headwinds in fiscal 2015 that were really a partial year effect that we expect will actually be a full year effect in 2016. And finally we expect within the China market a higher mix of 3-mode devices, which under the NDRC terms come through at a lower revenue per unit, is one way to think about it. So when you roll all that up just from a nonstructural standpoint, that gives you a growth picture for the business. On top of that, there is obviously an impact from the negotiation process where these handful of licensees that were in negotiations with stopped reporting, and we've rolled a cautious approach to that through our guidance. And as we make progress on those negotiations, we expect that to improve. So if everything came together and we were able to get the remaining agreements done and resolve some of the other compliance issues and recover the catch-ups, we would come in above the high end of our range. It's just that's a lot to promise within fiscal 2016, so we haven't built all of that upside into the guidance range.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy A. Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I got to say, I'm a little confused. I was hoping you can clear this up for me. So it seems like you've been holding your outlook for the global market flat to even up over the last few quarters and yet you've been stepping what you're capturing down, which implies to me that your ability to get paid in China has been getting even worse and worse after you signed the NDRC settlement, which to me just doesn't make a lot of sense. Why would your ability to get paid get worse after you settled with the government? How do you know you're not just underestimating the market growth itself rather than your ability to get paid in that market? Like how can we get comfort around that?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Stacy, this is Derek. So listen, we have a view on the market. We think that that's a pretty well informed view and it is modest growth year over year, 2015 to 2016. I think what you're seeing in China is a picture play out that was not all that unexpected, meaning once the resolution happened with China, we had to go through the process of implementing the agreed-upon terms with our licensees, and we knew that that process would take some time. We have made a lot of progress on that. As I mentioned, we've got a number of agreement signed up, but there are still a handful of significant ones that are under negotiation. So what's played out through the course of this year really are a few different things. One is we have made slower than expected progress in these negotiations which means that we're not getting paid on as large amount of the 3-mode volume that we expected. And that's really a negotiating dynamic from our perspective. Once we get these agreements done, we will get paid. The second is as I mentioned, more recently the handful of negotiations that we are involved in, we've had some of the licensees take probably a little more aggressive negotiating stance and start withholding payments while we're negotiating. We do have confidence, they acknowledge that they owe the royalties and that we will get paid on these once the agreements are concluded. But the timing of that's uncertain and so we're being cautious about the guidance on that. Finally, if you look at the share of the Chinese OEMs worldwide, the Chinese OEMs have continued to gain share throughout 2015 and we believe that will be the case in fiscal 2016 as well. And so you essentially have a piece of the market that has very high compliance losing share to another part of the market that has some compliance challenges and the issues that I just mentioned. So that's really what's driving the gap between the end market and what's getting reported to us. And we believe we have a well-thought-out aggressive plan for how to deal with that. It's just a question of when that will all get resolved.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis C. McCourt - Analyst, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey. Thanks for taking my question, got a couple. First for George, if you could outline the onshore cash position at the end of the year. And then two for you, Steve. In terms of the Snapdragon 820, obviously 60 design wins sounds impressive, but equally obviously there's a handful that really matter, right. So I'm trying to figure out based on your full year guidance of improving trend, how much of that is still business to be won versus business that's in hand, design wins on the high volume projects? And then also, if you could talk a little bit about 5G. You mentioned OFDMA. In terms of a near (49:36) interface, is there debate about that at this point? Or are pretty much all sides of the industry firmly aligned with OFDMA at this point? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi. This is George. In terms of onshore and offshore, we ended the year with $31 billion in cash, $5.3 billion of which was onshore.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
On the 820, this is Steve. On the 820, I feel like we've got broad-based design wins there and we feel good about it. It's certainly a component of the improving trend that we think is going to play out in 2016 in QCT. There are also a number of other products that we have upgraded that will also contribute to that, but on the product side, we feel good about that product, as I said. And I think that will be a good story as we roll through the year if we continue to execute. In terms of the timing of these products, as you know it continues to move throughout the year. So from everything that we see so far, we're pleased with how we see it. On 5G, a couple things on 5G. First, when we look at 5G, we look at that as an area where it will be a continuation of – we think the strength that we've had in 4G will also transition over to 5G. One of the reasons is that the anchor bands or the anchor, 5G actually uses a 4G anchor. I think there's pretty well – a pretty good alignment at the physical layer on how we put things together. We are obviously contributing a lot on 5G. 5G compared to maybe 3G and 4G, there are probably fewer companies really carrying the load there. We're certainly one of them. And then upstream of that will be we think a number of products that deliver on 4G and Wi-Fi together. And so from the modem perspective, I think it's going to roll out and be a pretty good dynamic moving forward. It will be more complex, but we think complexity is something that we're equipped to handle and handle at scale for the industry.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. On QCT, if I consider your qualitative comments today, the worst seems to be over and next year will show a return to growth. The renewed optimism aside from the product competitiveness and the diversification, do you feel that you are winning back a lot of the OEMs? And also in terms of quantifying IoT, is there an opportunity to take a leadership pole position in IoT considering the rapid growth that we should see in this segment over the next few years?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Mark, yeah I would agree with your characterization. I think this year was a real transition year for the structure of the QCT business. We had to change two things. One is we changed our cost structure. We're obviously executing on that and we will be throughout the fiscal year. The other one is that we've restructured the way in which we are organized to enable us to go after new markets yet still leverage the same IP roadmap that we build and continued to develop to service smartphones and mobile. And in particular in the area of IoE and such, it's really become an interesting story. I mean we have created products that from an engineering perspective feel like derivative products, but now they are products that enable us to take our modem leadership and to deliver it into new markets. I talked about a couple of our modem upgrades where we take products, we focus them on some of the machine-to-machine applications that exist in the 3GPP standard, and it really opens up our ability now to sell products into things like Chinese white good manufacturers or into automobiles and machine-to-machine products. So I think there's a good pipeline and a good fan-out for our IP roadmap and we'll start to deliver that more and more as we go through fiscal year 2016, and it will be one of the reasons why we think we'll be on an improving trajectory as we exit the fiscal year.
Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Alex Gauna with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.
Alex D. Gauna - JMP Securities LLC:
Thanks very much for taking my question. Steve, just to return to that topic we were just on. Even though I think the 820 probably gives you a great chance to recapture some share in the market, the trend seems to be towards the lower end now, and where the high end does exist, it seems to be captured or dominated largely by the iPhone right now where you don't have the apps processor attached. What is the risk that when we do move into the back half of the year, this same dynamic exists and challenges your ability to show those improvements you're looking forward to?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Well, I think a couple of things, Alex. One is that we do participate in I think a broader cross-section of the market than just the high tier Snapdragon products and that's obviously something that's helped us in Q4 right now. And we've also taken our cost structure and made fundamental changes to it really to desensitize the business to some of the concentration impacts that you've seen in fiscal year 2015. Taken a lot of work from the team to do that. I think that will isolate or at least insulate us a bit from those things in the future. That being said, I'll tell you I'm looking at what's happening in the industry and the share shifts and the design-in momentum and it's probably a little bit more optimistic a view from our view looking at the customer space than some of the narratives that you'll hear about the products. I mean we've upgraded the product line from top to bottom here in the last six months and we're very pleased with how we're getting traction and I hope the market will support that as the products move forward. And we've got the things that we can control hopefully in the right spot as well. We're clearly executing on those things and we're going to keep people up to date as to how we're doing.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Iwanyc with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
George M. Iwanyc - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thank you for taking my question. Steve, following up on those line of questions, how do you feel about your relationship with Samsung right now and how broadly are you exposed to their product mix?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Well, I think we have a very good relationship with Samsung. I think also the relationship with Samsung is much broader than perhaps people ask us about. We are a strong foundry partner and foundry customer of theirs. We obviously have an IP arrangement as well as a product arrangement. We also have partnerships with products that we put on our Reference Design, so it's a very broad relationship. And the way I would characterize it is that it's getting stronger versus moving the other direction. So it's good to have the scale and the breadth of products that we have. I think it gives us probably a little bit more to bring to the table when we talk to large multinational companies.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Vijay R. Rakesh - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks. Just on the handset ASPs, I was wondering since you talked about China being a drag longer term, where do you see handsets ASPs exiting fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2017? Thanks.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
This is Derek. Yeah, so I think what you're seeing is the trends that we've talked about for some time playing out broadly in line with what we expected, meaning we did expect ASPs to moderate over time and if you look at what we're projecting to happen in fiscal 2016 as compared to 2015, we do expect further declines, but probably at about half the rate that we saw in 2015. And over time we expect that that will moderate further for a lot of the reasons we've already explained including the fact that there will be further concentration we think within the Chinese OEM base. And we are continuing to see evidence that the Chinese OEMs' ASPs are increasing over time to come closer in line with some of the non-Chinese suppliers. And that's a trend that we think will continue going forward. And then importantly, as we see more of the growth in the future coming from the emerging regions, we're going to get to a place, probably starting next year, where there's more of a replacement market in the emerging regions as opposed to the first migration from 2G to 3G/4G. And that will have a moderating effect on ASP declines over time. So again, I think like I said, broadly in line with what we've been expecting and we'll definitely be updating this picture when we do our Analyst Day early in the next calendar year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity. Please go ahead.
Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc.:
Thank you very much. In terms of the competitive environment in A6 (59:20) as it stands now, I know that there were some struggles with the ASP erosion in this period and it sounds like you're going to continue that maybe the next too. What is 2016? I know you've got a new product roadmap coming out here, but if you look at both the emerging market products coming out of MediaTek and Intel, and the internal solutions which seem to be spreading at least to their own OEMs and Samsung, Huawei and Xiaomi, how does that change next year? Do these OEMs continue to use these products and will they propagate out? And will 5G help you at all since most of that is probably RF driven more so than basebands? I'm just trying to get an arm around how the dynamic that's causing some of the problems in QCT changes in the next year or so. Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Ed, this is Steve. I think the competitive dynamic, it's still a very competitive market, particularly at the low tier. We consider ourselves to be in a very strong position there. I feel good about our competitive position. At the higher tiers and particularly in the areas where people want to have international launches, I think our position, it feels quite comfortable. That being said, there are a lot of people going after this market. It's an attractive market, but I think it's getting harder and harder for people to have the breadth of technology to deliver on all of these products. But you know, the competitive marketplace, it's still a lot of people that want to enter into it. But we feel good about our competitive position.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA Securities. Please go ahead.
Srini R. Pajjuri - CLSA Americas LLC:
Thank you. Steve, I had a question on your modem business. I'm just curious as to how much visibility do you have into your design wins, and based on what you see out there, how you feel about your market share in the high tier modem segment?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, on the modem side, it's obviously a strength of QUALCOMM's. We tend to be several if not multiple generations ahead of our competitors, primarily on feature set, but also on maturity, geographical breadth. And those are important things when you're talking about dealing particularly with worldwide OEMs, and it's an area that we obviously defend very rigorously. The other aspect that's happening and will play out over the next couple of years is that the importance of having RF, the access to multiple bands, the ability to deliver products not only in the licensed bands but in the unlicensed bands will continue to become, actually will increasingly become more important, and those things will be table stakes by the time you get to 5G. Now we're driving to have those things happen as quickly as we can. In terms of visibility into design wins, I think probably the most important thing is we have visibility into the competitive positions of where we sit relative maybe to some of the competitive or the competing chipsets, and I think we feel good about those positions. That being said, we do try to manage our business to never take those things for granted and keep driving it forward, and hopefully you're hearing that tone from us on the call today. We're continuing to invest in what we think are the things that drive benefit to the business, and this is certainly one of them.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you. Yeah, I just want thank our employees really for delivering a strong quarter in a period of difficult decisions and realigning the company for the future. So this year, 2016, will be an important transition year for us. We're focusing on a great set of products. We're clearly focused strongly on improving our licensing compliance, as Derek said, and then we're executing on the strategic realignment plan. So I just want to thank the employees for all their hard work, and it's an important year for us, and I'm optimistic about it. And I just want to thank everybody for coming and listening to the call. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Paul E. Jacobs - Executive Chairman Derek K. Aberle - President
Analysts:
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Timothy Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Tavis C. McCourt - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc. Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Timothy M. Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets LLC David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc. Srini R. Pajjuri - CLSA Americas LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Qualcomm third quarter fiscal 2015 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 22, 2015. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers, please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 78002754. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Dr. Paul Jacobs, Derek Aberle, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. I would like to highlight that we issued two press releases today, our fiscal third quarter earnings release as well as a release announcing our strategic realignment plan. Both are available on our website along with associated slide presentations. Please visit our website at qualcomm.com to access these along with the audio broadcast that accompanies this call. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. As well, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks, Warren, and thank you all for joining us. Today's call will have a different structure than prior calls given the significant announcements we made today. I will focus my remarks on the strategic realignment plan and some brief updates to the business and industry environment. George will then spend a few minutes reviewing our third quarter financial results and outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. We will then take your questions. Today, we are announcing a broad package of initiatives designed to increase stockholder value and position the company for success in an ever-changing industry environment. These initiatives are focused on areas within our control, including making sure we have the right cost structure for the future, a corporate structure that maximizes value and will best position us for the strategic opportunities ahead within a dynamic industry landscape, the appropriate capital structure and level of dividends and share repurchases, the optimal board composition and management incentives, and a capital allocation plan that ensures that our investment dollars are spent in areas with the most promising risk-adjusted returns. We are also pleased to be adding two new directors today. We intend to add a third new director promptly, pursuant to an agreement with JANA Partners. I will speak in more detail about our two new directors, Mark McLaughlin and Tony Vinciquerra, in a moment. We are committed to driving meaningful change to improve our near-term performance while preserving our ability to create sustainable value over the long term. These steps are being implemented on an accelerated timeline and are designed to help us improve execution, enhance financial performance, and drive more profitable growth across the company without jeopardizing our ability to retain and build upon our technology leadership position in both our core and new businesses. Over the last three decades, Qualcomm has thrived as both the company and the mobile industry have grown and gone through a number of significant transformations. We have demonstrated the ability to successfully adapt and change, and that ability will continue to serve as well as we implement our strategic realignment plan and continue to examine any and all ways to maximize shareholder value. Our strategic realignment plan is designed to enable us to extend our core strengths and deliver value for our customers and stockholders in more efficient and powerful ways. The plan has six key initiatives
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon to everyone. Our fiscal third quarter results were in line with our expectations, with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share within our prior guidance ranges. In QCT, revenue was in line with expectations at $3.85 billion. And the operating margin at 7.5% was at the low end of the guidance range as stronger than expected share and units in the low tier in China were more than offset by weaker mix in the premium tier. We believe that in addition to reduced demand, sell-through for some of our premium tier customers was weaker than expected, leading to an inventory build, which we now expect to impact QCT MSM demand in the fiscal fourth quarter. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licensees were $60.4 billion, up 4% year over year, but below the low end of our prior guidance range, reflecting lower than expected reported device shipments. The lower-than-expected reported device shipments were primarily driven by a higher mix of unlicensed three-mode units and the fact that it is taking us longer than previously expected to conclude new license agreements with certain Chinese OEMs. QTL revenues were up 7% year over year and modestly ahead of our expectations. Audit recoveries and other payments for prior-period activity recognized in the quarter more than offset the impact of lower reported device sales. We estimate that the average selling price of reported devices sold during the third fiscal quarter was approximately $208, up approximately $12 sequentially at the midpoint. Turning to capital structure, we continued our aggressive capital return program, returning a record $6.2 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $757 million of dividends paid and $5.4 billion in stock repurchases. These amounts include a $5 billion accelerated share repurchase, which we expect to be completed no later than November. Our shares outstanding were reduced by 3% in the last quarter and 6% since the start of fiscal 2014. Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.7 billion, down approximately 22% year over year and 11% sequentially at the midpoint. This outlook puts us at the low end of our previous revenue guidance for the full fiscal year. We expect sequential QTL revenues to be flat to up slightly in the fourth quarter, driven by increased 3G/4G total reported device sales, including from the execution of new agreements with Chinese OEMs, offsetting the absence of audit recoveries and prior-period revenues recognized in our third fiscal quarter. Our outlook also incorporates a continuing foreign exchange headwind. Let me comment further on our progress implementing the revised licensing terms in China. We are adding new agreements and continue to expect improvement over time in the underreporting we have been experiencing, including collecting on three-mode shipments. However, the timing of executing new agreements and improving the underreporting is likely to remain somewhat difficult to predict. As we evaluate TRDS for the second half of fiscal 2015, we now estimate that TRDS will be lower than previously expected, primarily driven by a higher mix of three-mode devices in China, an increase in share by Chinese OEMs globally, as well as the timing uncertainty relating to new agreements and compliance I just discussed. Having said that, our outlook for global device sales remains strong, and we continue to believe we will successfully conclude new agreements in China and improve collections over time, consistent with our prior views. Turning to QCT, we have reduced our outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter on lower shipments, which I will discuss in a moment. We now expect QCT operating margins to be approximately 2% to 4%. The revenue and margin downside to our previous expectations for the fourth quarter are driven primarily by three factors weighing on premium tier demand. First, we are seeing share concentration in the premium tier impact demand for certain OEM devices that use our chipsets more than our previous expectations. This dynamic led to inventory build in the fiscal third quarter for these OEMs, which is driving reduced demand for our chipsets in the near term on inventory drawdown. Second, we are seeing weakness in demand for our premium tier chipsets from a vertical customer based on a change in the mix of devices that are selling through. And third, lower than expected sell through in China of certain handset models using our premium tier chipsets is impacting demand in the fourth quarter. Product costs are expected to be modestly higher than previous expectations, as some of the yield-related benefits forecasted on higher volumes will not be realized. We are pleased with our design traction across all tiers, and our view on fourth quarter low-tier unit volume and share in China is consistent with prior expectations. Let me spend a moment on the sequential change in units. We are guiding to a 45 million unit sequential decline in MSM shipments. This decline is explained by two factors. First, our previous guidance expected MSMs to be down sequentially by 10 million to 15 million units in the fourth quarter. And the addition of 5 million units into the third fiscal quarter brings the anticipated impact closer to 20 million units. Second, the remaining approximately 25 million unit reduction is largely explained by the premium tier developments I explained a few minutes ago. Turning to our earnings outlook, we estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal fourth quarter to be approximately $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Fiscal 2015 full-year earnings guidance range is $4.50 to $4.70 per share. While it is too early to forecast fiscal 2016, the strategic realignment plan is designed to deliver significantly improved QCT margins, even assuming the industry trends experienced in the second half of fiscal 2015 persist and does not assume the potential upsides from market improvement or recovery of premium tier share at a leading vertical OEM. We believe these actions position the company well going forward and will require our complete focus over the next year to ensure we execute well on our customer commitments and technology roadmaps while delivering on the plan. That concludes my remarks. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great, thank you. Steve and George, maybe you can just share with us a little more on the cost reductions. Can you help us think about the cadence to reach this run rate? Is it more linear through fiscal 2016, or is it more front-end loaded? And then could you talk on maybe any program that you might be shutting down? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes. Hi, Mike. This is George. The cost savings will come in over time, as you would expect, throughout the year. We'll have some front loading, but we see costs actually based on the timing that's required for meeting the roadmap requirements and other factors spreading it out. But we expect the cost savings to be fully realized by the end of the year. And if you average out what we expect, we think about $600 million will come out in the fiscal year.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Mike, this is Steve. Just very quickly on programs. Essentially what we're doing is we're going to protect our IP roadmaps. We are not going to withdraw from tiers. We're going to do some changes to how we're doing things and where we're putting employees, and obviously, we'll be out talking to customers and making sure they're comfortable with that as well. But I think you're looking at a case where we've had some significant growth and we're trying to get our cost structure in advance or trying to react to what's happening in the industry and get ahead of it, and I think we'll be healthier as a result. But we're going to definitely be continuing to invest in the roadmap.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Timothy Long - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you. I just want to get back into the chip business here. I get the moving parts around units and market share, and it sounds like a little build this quarter and a little burn next quarter. But if I average the two of them and just divide by the TRDS units and compare that to the few quarters before that, it looks like about 10 full points of market share reduction. And at the same time, it looks like ASPs have come down and gross margins dip into 40% or maybe even lower for that segment. So is there something else going on competitively, other than the Samsung vertical integration and the channel build? It seems like we're at a step function down in market share above and beyond the high end at that one customer.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hi, Tim. If you look at the fourth quarter effects that we're talking about, they're effectively all premium tier. I know Derek may want to jump in, in a minute, on the TRDS point. So our design traction in the premium tier has not had any change. So we did cite that we had lower volumes at one vertical OEM, which you could describe it as share loss. But overall, it's really the fact that we have this concentrated environment and a very large impact on a number of our premium tier customers as a result of that. The other piece is we cited in China that certain handset models using our chipsets had lower demand than was forecasted going into the quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis C. McCourt - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Steve, I was wondering if there's any way you could quantify the impact of the Snapdragon 810 issues, whether it's some of your customers choosing to use prior-generation chips or any expenses that you've had to incur that are abnormal related to that. And then secondly, I know you've looked at the separation in the past. Can you remind us the logic of having QTL and QCT together, at least the major points that came to a conclusion in the past to keep these together? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Sure. Why don't I ask George to handle the first one? I'll be happy to do the second part about separation.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. In terms of the Snapdragon 810, I think probably the biggest single impact as we look at the year – first off, again, much like the fourth quarter, it's almost entirely attributable to changes in the premium tier and certainly the socket loss at a major vertical customer. And so that would typically have been a customer for the Snapdragon 810 for their new-generation devices. But it's also been a factor of the impacts that are happening in the premium tier overall, that we're seeing SKUs other than the leading SKUs that are not selling through at the levels that customers thought that are impacting some of our premium tier chipsets as well. So the only other thing from a cost standpoint is we have had some increased E&O and certainly some portion of Snapdragon 810 is a part of that. But overall, it's really been more a function of the significant shift in demand that we've seen throughout the year.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
And with regards to the separation, I think each individual time that we've looked at this, the circumstances were different. I think we've looked at it a number of times over the last decade and a half. Today, given that we're on the other side of the NDRC investigation, the structure of the industry, how we're looking at the market, I think it's time to take a fresh look, and I think that's what we're describing. There's no foregone conclusion either way here. But we want to make sure we do a thorough look to make sure that we're looking at all ways to drive shareholder value. One of the reasons that we look at our board composition, we do have some new eyes coming in that can help us look at that as well with some unique experience, so we're going to go through the process and we will update you shortly.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Blayne Curtis - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, thanks for taking my question. George, I just wanted to clarify on the timing of the OpEx cuts. I thought I heard you say $600 million this year. I just want to make sure that it was – obviously, the fiscal year ends in September. When did those cuts start and how linear is that? And then I just wanted to better understand the inventory picture here. You mentioned 25 million units. Does that clean up this issue? And then I just wanted to – as you look into China, in terms of differentiating your – you said you're investing in your modem. I think one of the issues is that you haven't had the market move to carrier aggregation. Just any progress on moving the market ahead in terms of getting the carriers to actually roll out more carrier aggregation to create an advantage?
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Blayne. This is George. On the $600 million, my point there is that we'll take $600 million of the $1.1 billion run rate out in fiscal 2016. I didn't mean to imply 2015, if that's how it came across. In terms of the inventory, we're really going to have to see how it plays out. We certainly are coming into the quarter with a significant overhang that we didn't forecast coming into the quarter. And so we will – I mean in the previous guide. So it will really depend on how our customer sell-through plays out in the quarter.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
With respect to the carrier aggregation question in China, China Telecom has already launched. It's starting to work its way through the design cycle and through the ecosystem. China Mobile is expected to launch at the end of this calendar year. And we think this will be a good dynamic and has been anticipated in our roadmap, as you may know. The other dynamic that's happening in China is just also is just the desire for the Chinese OEMs to be exporters, and that's also been a good trend for us. But we're looking forward to this carrier aggregation launch happening in China.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Just a couple of questions. One just on clarification on the cost savings. All these are gross numbers. So are you guys going to be reinvesting some part? And I'm trying to figure out of the $1.1 billion how much will actually drop to the bottom line that might enhance profits over the longer term. Can you just speak about how you think about reinvestments? And then for Paul or for Steve, on the separation point of QTL and QCT, I just want to understand what the basic arguments are because in the sense that previously I was under the impression that there's joint R&D and there's clear synergy between it. What are the dyssynergies of separating these businesses now, especially I think one thing that is maybe very different versus the past is that the QTL business has achieved...
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Kulbinder, we can barely hear you. Can you speak more closely to your...
Kulbinder S. Garcha - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Sorry, let me start again. I was just saying that first of all on the cost savings side, how much of them will be reinvested? And furthermore, will some of the $1.1 billion, that's a gross number I think, how much drops to the bottom line, how should we think about that? And then on the separation point, can you please just give us the pros and cons of separating in the sense that right now QTL license is so much of the handset industry, it's almost achieved a large part of what you needed to do to be with QCT in the first place? Is now the right time to separate? What's the dyssynergy of separating, for example? I'm not asking for a number, but what are the arguments we should think about? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Kulbinder, the cost reductions are meant to be reductions relative to the run rate that we had in 2015, so they are effectively net reductions in that sense. We'll certainly spend some more in certain areas of the company, but it's a pretty broad-based reduction, and the $1.1 billion is meant to be the amount of savings that are coming out pre-tax.
Paul E. Jacobs - Executive Chairman:
Kulbinder, this is Paul. We don't want to get into a lot of the details on separation arguments because we're going to do a fresh review, and there are really no preconceived notions right now. So I think it's best if we leave that situation as it stands and allow the new directors, the outside advisors to make some decisions on their own.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James E. Faucette - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much. I wanted to touch on the cost reductions. You've talked about OpEx reductions, and I am wondering how much improvement in cost of goods and gross margin, particularly on the chip business, may be attainable. I guess I'm interested in that simply because if I look at what you're targeting for a run rate exiting next fiscal year and apply that to just the QCT gross profit you put through this quarter, it would indicate a better operating margin then you've even targeted for next year. So I was just wondering how we should think about COGS and that as a cost reduction effort. And my second question is back on the demand. I guess I'm wondering how long you think it will take to work through this inventory because 25 million units roughly, as George outlined, is a huge proportion of the customers that you have in that high-end segment. And so I'm just wondering how long you think it will take to put through and get through that inventory adjustment? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So most of the cost savings that we've talked about are coming out of OpEx, although there are engineering activities within cost of sales that are part of the overall $7.3 billion base that we've talked to. In terms of COGS, we've had, as you know, for some time a significant focus on improvements in our supply chain, including some long-term agreements, some prepayment activities. We've said that we expected to start to see the fruits of those things after 2015 and getting through the initial ramp of 20-nanometer. So most of the savings we're focusing on here are really OpEx related, but we will continue to look for opportunities to improve COGS. And we have not forecasted margin improvements as part of this exercise, but of course that's something that we'll be focused on as well. In terms of the demand, the 25 million is really the number of units that is below what we had anticipated in the fourth quarter, which accounts for really the bulk of the revenue and margin decline that we're seeing. It's not necessarily just the inventory balance. So it's not – as you know, the inventory, we can look into the channel and we can certainly clearly see significant build across that channel, but to know exactly how it will come out would be hard to forecast. We just know it's going to have a significant impact in the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead. Mr. Arcuri, please make sure that your line is not on mute. Mr. Arcuri, please make sure that your line has not been muted. Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question, I just wanted to clarify. It doesn't look like you took your global unit forecast for QTL for calendar year 2015 down. That's still sitting at 1.560 billion, which suggests you're not seeing any further degradation in the second half versus your prior outlook for the global market. I just wanted to verify that and ask you how confident you are that there are no impending headwinds building in the market itself in the second half of the year. And for my second question, on chipsets and the 16% margin guidance, I know you said you're not factoring in anything improving in the market. But at this point, why shouldn't we be factoring in the prospect for the market getting worse, given a lot of the issues that seem to be hitting here on margins in terms of competition and mix and everything else, at least to me, would appear to be structural rather than something that would be fully in your control?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Stacy, this is Derek. Why don't I take the first one? I think we looked across the market. There are obviously some puts and takes, a little softness we're seeing in the premium tier and a little bit slower early parts in China for the year. But as we look at the full year, we do think that will reaccelerate in China in particular. And the net-net of the overall reevaluation of the market we still feel confident in the prior forecast that we put out there, so we're not going to adjust it at this time.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Stacy, on the planning assumptions that we used, we think that the second half gives you a pretty balanced view. We saw weak mix in the third quarter. We obviously see a very difficult environment in the fourth quarter. And really it's meant to be a planning assumption so that we can give some sense of where we see the company and QCT in particular on margins coming out at the end of next year. We believe there are certainly upsides and downsides to that planning assumption, but to try and forecast what that means for 2016 until we get closer is too difficult at this point. So we'll do that in November, and we'll have a better view whether we're in a weaker or stronger situation.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Timothy M. Arcuri - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thank you. I had two. First of all, George, relative to the new QCT operating margin targets by the end of next year, when you say that that doesn't assume any improvement in the industry, does that mean to say that it assumes that QCT revenues stay in this low $3 billion per quarter range?
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Tim, what we've said is that we're assuming that the conditions of the second half of fiscal 2015 continue. And so you can – but saying I'm not going to guide 2016 revenues.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys. You've said in the past that you may consider acquisitions in order to grow to the markets. The fact that there is a business change as well as a big restructuring plan and you need to deal with all these issues, does it mean that they're going to put any M&A aspirations on the back burner more and focus internally on the other things you announced? So that's question number one. And question number two, when I calculate the implied price for MSM, what are the puts and takes this quarter when it comes to the price? I'm trying to reconcile your verbal comments with the price change. That is not very different from what we expected. So what are the puts and takes there? And then what's your best guess – again, not in terms of numbers, but in terms of the drivers – what's your best guess for what's going to impact this implied price in the coming quarters? Thanks.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Tal, this is Steve. I'll give my answer to the first one. Perhaps my colleagues can jump in on the second one. With regards to M&A, we obviously have CSR outstanding and getting to the point soon here where we hope to be talking about that as something that influences earnings, obviously something that's accretive to our fiscal year 2016 plan. I don't think we've made a change in terms of our M&A stance. I will say that when we look at the management team and what we're focused on, we're very focused on delivering this cost plan. I think right now, we look at that and we say that really positions the business in a way that will really benefit the shareholders and drive value. So that's what we're focused on.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Tal, on the revenue per MSM in the third quarter, you're right. It wasn't terribly different than expectations as the quarter pretty much on an operating basis came in where we thought it would. But you did see higher MSMs. Those are really part of the story of us having stronger than expected share in the low tier in China in the third quarter. That just created a little bit weaker mix. We're actually seeing some of that. As we said, we expect to see lower low-tier volumes in China in Q4. That was already in our forecast in our prior guidance. So we actually get a little bit of mix benefit in the fourth quarter even though overall it's not as strong as we would have thought because we had a much better premium tier mix in our original expectations.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Rod B. Hall - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. So I just had two. I guess the first one is back to the MSM chip unit guidance. Even once you reconcile this back, the difference between the guidance and last quarter or this quarter you just reported, we're still flat quarter on quarter, which is abnormal seasonality. Typically in fiscal Q4, you see unit volumes on MSM up. And it doesn't sound like, even after all the reconciliation, you're expecting that. So I just wanted to just ask you guys if you could talk a little bit about why the seasonality is somewhat abnormal this year. Is it a demand issue? What's going on with seasonality once you make all the adjustments? And then the second thing I want to ask you is maybe just a little bit longer-term question, which is we know about the vertical integration into one ODM. I'm just curious. What probability, Steve, would you assign to further vertical integration, especially up in the high tier? Thanks.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So on the seasonality, again, I think the effects that we're seeing in the marketplace of concentration and again, as we said, the pullback in unit share that we're seeing in the low tier in China, I think those things dominate our view of the MSM situation I think much more than the seasonality adjustment would explain.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
This is Steve. My view on the vertical aspect, I would argue that what you're seeing was probably more of a product cycle issue versus a general trend. The overall difficulty of delivering MSMs or delivering something like our MSM is actually getting harder. And the same dynamics, particularly with concentration in the industry, the same dynamics that occurred over the last decade and a half to people like Nokia or Motorola with a vertical strategy, I think still happen with chipsets today. So I think I don't see that as a trend that's going forward now. Clearly with our planning assumptions for planning our OpEx, we wanted to put the business in a position where it is less susceptible to those individual design wins, which I think is part of our cost program, but I think it's going to get harder and harder. The other thing I would note too is that feedback from customers and particularly customers who you may be worried about with respect to vertical aspirations have been strong with respect to our Snapdragon 820 and other designs. So I feel like our roadmap is getting a warm reception broadly, and we just have to continue develop on it and get our cost structure in the right spot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you, gentlemen. I understand the OpEx issue and also the potential split, maybe some consideration for the issue related to the maturing smartphone market and the change, possibly permanent change, in your customers who want to do their own chipsets. So perhaps how Qualcomm can quickly move into new markets to find a home for new chipsets, and are they large enough to replace the substantive smartphone market?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
This is Steve. I think our challenges are – the smartphone and the handset business continues to be an attractive market. I think we need to get our profitability up in that opportunity, which is why we're taking these changes to our cost structure and get ahead of what we see happening in the market. But equally, I think there's significant growth available to us as we leverage the IP roadmap that you develop in smartphone SoCs and take that and really fan that out into a number of new markets. If you look at what's happening across the board from every major consumer electronics industry, they're all trying to embrace the smartphone, and part of what we are doing is moving resources off of the phone space into supporting those new markets. So if we can boost profitability in our home market and take opportunity of these new or take advantage of these new opportunities in adjacent markets, I think we'll have the business back on a good track for growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
David M. Wong - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you very much. The cost cuts that you are contemplating for QCT, do they have any effect on the number of foundries that you might consider working with or on future technologies that you might be putting chips currently in design?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
This is Steve. No, really we're trying to protect our IP roadmap. And obviously with the scale that we have, getting changes and making sure that we're optimal from the supply chain point of view, particularly COGS, is very important in terms of driving value. So we're continuing to protect those opportunities.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research. Please go ahead.
Brett Simpson - Arete Research Services LLP:
Thanks very much. You mentioned, Steve, that you won't be withdrawing from certain tiers in QCT. But can you share with us with your business activities on the low end consistently make money as we continue to hear about aggressive price cuts in this segment, particularly in the last couple of quarters? So just can you give your perspective there? And, George, just following on from the last question, on COGS savings in QCT, that wasn't mentioned as part of the cost review. I'm just wondering whether you think there's an opportunity to improve gross margins in QCT since your scale is way more than any of your rivals and you are diversifying with different foundries. Should we expect any savings at the COGS line? Thank you.
George S. Davis - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So let me take the COGS savings question first. We have had, like I said previously, we've had a keen focus on leveraging our scale throughout the industry to make sure that we have competition for the volumes among our foundry partners, and we believe we have a very good roadmap to maximize the cost of our use of that supply chain over time. And we had cited as part of the reason we would be off on margins at the start of this year that we are really coming out of a situation where we had, at 20-nanometer, a less than optimal COGS situation. That being said, volume matters, and we've seen some of the issues that came with lower than expected volumes, so we're not quite seeing some of the benefits. As volume recovers, we would expect to see that. But the basic structural changes that we need to make in terms of working with a broad range of very capable foundry partners is part of our existing plan, so we're not really making a change to that. That being said, of course, it's critical that we get both margin expansion as well as improvement in the OpEx areas, and we'll be very focused on that. And as we make progress beyond what is in our base plan already, we'll keep you informed.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Brett, this is Steve. With respect to the low tier, I think the entire industry is actually challenged in terms of making money at the low tier. We're probably in a better position than most because of the ability to leverage our IP roadmap across the tiers. We're making some changes in this realignment plan where we're doing work to try to get the cost per head more in alignment with some of our competitors. But we still think it's an interesting opportunity for us to go after. And as George mentioned, we are assuming that this aggressive price environment continues with respect to our planning assumption on the realignment plan. So we're probably better than most in terms of where we're going, and we think it's an important market to contribute in. It will also be a market that will move more toward 4G. Today, it is split between 3G single-mode. It will move to multi-mode 4G, which should advantage us worldwide. We just need to get ourselves better set up to address it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Edward F. Snyder - Charter Equity Research, Inc.:
Thank you very much. There have been several mentions of a more focused look at expanding into markets that are already in prices you have or very closely adjacent products you are going to develop. It seems to make sense. Where does that put you on the RF side of the business? I know RF360 has been a big initiative for you for the last several years, and you're still working on that. Does that change your view of moving into that vertical? And then in terms of investment in QTL, I know that you put out a notice about more regulatory action from Europe. What's your thinking now on the settlement you had in China spreading to other geographies? Although the laws are different, it seems like there's still a lot of interest from other regulatory agencies in maybe changing Qualcomm's licensing agreements. If you can comment on that, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Ed, this is Steve. The opportunity to grow content in the device we think still exists, particularly in an environment where the LTE band proliferation continues to be very wide. We're actually quite pleased with the RF360. It's still early days. I think we have something like 350 OEM designs already on the parts, and we think that that will build over time as we start to add more capability. But the environment for growing content in the phone we still think is a good opportunity for us.
Derek K. Aberle - President:
Ed, this is Derek. On the regulatory question, actually the European Union investigations that were I think announced this last week or so, really it's just a new phase of the proceeding, and it's still relatively early in their process. But it's focused really not on the licensing program of the company. It's really focused on chipset pricing and rebate type agreements. So again, as we look at it, we've commented on this quite a bit over the last couple of calls. We do believe that the result in China is unique to China. And although we could very well have other regulatory proceedings to deal with, we're very confident in our ability to defend against those.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA Securities. Please go ahead.
Srini R. Pajjuri - CLSA Americas LLC:
Thank you, just a question on the China comment. You said it's taking a little longer than expected to improve the collections. I'm just curious. What actions, if any, can you take locally in China to improve collections going forward?
Derek K. Aberle - President:
This is Derek. Actually, there are a couple of drivers here. As we said coming out of the resolution with NDRC, we were going to need to go through this process of offering new terms to our licensees. We're getting pretty far along in that process. We've made progress. But as we noted last time, this is going to take some time, and it's a bit hard to predict. We've given you our best view on the timing of when we'll be able to conclude agreements. But some of these things take a bit longer than others, and so that's going to probably have some impact. We now think that just pushing some units out of our fiscal year into next year that we thought we may be able to get earlier, but again, it's not a change in our view as to whether we'll be able to ultimately collect royalties on those units. It's just more a question of timing. So really the process is to get these new agreements in place and get companies that were previously unlicensed for three-mode devices signed up. And again, we're going through that process now and have companies that have signed agreements and are reporting royalties to us now on three-mode, but we still have some work to do there. And then beyond that, it's a lot of the things we've talked about in the past in terms of ratcheting up the level of auditing and compliance activities in China. And ultimately, if necessary, which we always try to do everything we can to avoid this, but if we have to, enforcing the terms of our contracts that are in place there. So we're going through that process now, and we'll be updating you as we continue to progress there.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I'd like to thank everyone for being on the call today. We are excited about our growth prospects, and the major initiatives announced today will put us in an even better position to lead the next wave of growth for the company and our industry and enhance value for our stockholders. Implementation of the plan is underway, and I look forward to updating you on our progress on a regular basis.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President, Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer Derek Aberle - President George Davis - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup Blaine Curtis - Barclays Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company C.J. Muse - Evercore ISI Srini Pajjuri - CLSA Tavis McCourt - Raymond James Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm’s Second Quarter Fiscal 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 22, 2015. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 18876512. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our Web site at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I'd also like to direct you to our 10-Q and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our website. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm’s Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon, everyone. We just completed a solid quarter with record performance in QTL, as the global adoption of our broad set of technologies drove all-time high 3G/4G device shipments by our licensees. In addition, we had several major accomplishments, including the resolution of the NDRC investigation, our announcement of a $15 billion stock buyback authorization, and a 14% increase in the dividend. We are pleased that the NDRC investigation has been concluded and believe that our licensing business is now better positioned to participate in China’s broad adoption of 3G/4G technology. The impact of the resolution and the recent agreement with a large licensee in China announced on the January call are starting to positively impact the QTL business. Derek will discuss this in more detail in a few moments. While we are ahead of our expectations in the first half of the fiscal year, we are guiding the second half lower due to a number of factors in QCT. First, the extent of the impact of OEM concentration at the premium tier and the impact of share loss in the Galaxy S6 and Note. Second, the altered launch plans of the OEMs in the premium tier with some OEMs delaying launches and then OEM rationalizing their portfolio by deemphasizing designs using our legacy parts. We are not seeing a change design share or the competitive environment, but rather a change in timing of some 810 designs. And finally, QCT continues to face competitive pressures in China. The China contribution to earnings is roughly flat to the previous outlook with more strength at the premium tier offsetting some expected share loss in the low tier in the fourth quarter. As I will explain later, we expect this near-term trend to improve as we launch new parts and China enters modem transition later in this calendar year. Based on our current customer engagements and our future product roadmap, we do not believe these product cycle issues reflect the long-term change in QCT’s competitive positioning. However, we do believe the impact of the current product cycle will extend into next fiscal year. Clearly, we are not pleased with our reduced outlook. Accordingly, we have initiated a comprehensive review of our cost structure in QCT and throughout the company. The goals of this review are to align our cost structure with the changing marketplace and improve efficiency. We have begun a comprehensive assessment of costs and opportunities for greater efficiency company-wide with the help of an outside expert and will be reporting on those initiatives on the Q3 earnings call. With respect to the roadmap, we remain confident that our differentiated Snapdragon processor and modem leadership positions us well across multiple price tiers and customer segments entering the next product cycle. In the premium tier, we are very pleased with the design traction on the Snapdragon 810 with over 60 designs having won the key premium design slots with the exception of Samsung. Since our last earnings call, LG has begun shipping the innovative G Flex2, Sony has announced the incredibly thin Xperia Z4 phone and tablet, and Xiaomi has announced the Mi Note 4 with category 9 carrier aggregation. Recently teardowns and press reports correctly highlight the advantages delivered by our integrated approach. We are also encouraged by the customer interest in our new Snapdragon 820, which is on track to ship in the second half of this calendar year and is built on the latest FinFET node. The Snapdragon 820 represents a new design point for our SoC architecture and will be the first to include our new custom 64-bit CPU microarchitecture. Since our last call and in response to the competitive environment in China, we have also enhanced the Snapdragon 615, which will be commercial this year. In addition, we expect a modem transition in China later this year and we are seeing signals to the OEMs from the operators consistent with this view. Our Snapdragon 425 with industry leading uplink carrier aggregation and a new low-cost RF front-end is well positioned for this opportunity and is on track to be in devices later this calendar year, well ahead of our competition. Turning to the longer-term outlook, the smartphone opportunity remains a strong positive for Qualcomm and we forecast continued healthy global demand in the near-term and over the next several years. IDC estimates that over 8.5 billion smartphones will be sold from 2015 through 2019. We also continue to gain traction in adjacent areas where our mobile technologies and capabilities can deliver next generation solutions. Areas such as automotive, the Internet of Things, mobile computing, and networking, these areas are expected to represent large new opportunities for Qualcomm with over 5 billion new non-phone connected device shipments expected in calendar year 2018. Further, shipments in these areas are contributing over 10% of QCT’s fiscal year 2015 estimated revenue. In automotive, for instance, we have over 40 connected car programs with 15 plus OEMs and we recently announced two new modems, the Snapdragon X12 and X12 that augment our portfolio to support connectivity across all tiers of the automotive industry. Our scale and position in mobile makes us well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. In summary, we are well positioned to address the significant opportunities ahead given the strength in our core businesses and traction in new growth opportunities. We are focused on completing our implementation of the rectification plan in China, concluding new license agreements in China and improving compliance. We’re also investing in the future generations of the modem and connectivity, including 4G enhancements such as LTE-U and 5G, as well as future evolutions of Wi-Fi and the convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular. We are confident in our QCT roadmap for the reasons I just explained, but intend to take a comprehensive look at our cost structure in-light of the changing industry dynamics and structure. I would now like to turn the call over to Qualcomm’s President Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle :
Thank you Steve and good afternoon everyone. As Steve noted, we delivered a solid quarter achieving record non-GAAP operating income. QCT operating performance was in-line with expectations as favourable operating expense offset slightly weaker mix. QTL performance was ahead of expectations with revenues, earnings before tax, and total reported device sales all setting records driven by strong 3G, 4G device shipments, improved compliance in China and a catch up amount for prior period sales from the licensee with which we recently resolved the dispute. Fiscal Q2 revenue for QTL was up approximately 17% year-over-year even without this catch up amount and in the face of foreign exchange headwinds, QTL would have delivered a record quarter across these same metrics. As you are aware, we recently announced a resolution with China's National Development and Reform Commission regarding the investigation of us under the China antimonopoly law. As part of this resolution, we agreed to implement a rectification plan that modifies certain of our business practices with respect to the licensing of our 3G and 4G essential Chinese patterns for branded devices sold for use in China. Since that time we have been implementing the plan and offered the revised license terms for our current 3G and 4G essential Chinese patterns to both our current licensees and to a number of unlicensed OEMs and manufacturers. Following the offers we have met with a large number of licensees both in and outside of China to discuss the revised terms. Although we are still relatively early in the process, we are making good progress to date as over 35 licensees have accepted the revised terms so far, including with respect to 3-mode devices sold in China. The rate at which licensees are accepting the new terms and signing new license agreements has been accelerating throughout the process. We now have 125 licensees in total with licences covering 3-mode devices with more than 85 in China, including Huawei and ZTE. We are making progress on the underreporting issues in China as well. We estimate that approximately 200 million units were sold during calendar 2014, but not reported to us by our licensees in line with our prior guidance. To put this in greater context, we have also increased our estimates for the calendar 2014 global 3G 4G market by approximately 20 million units versus our prior guidance and now believe that a larger percentage of the units shipped in 2014 where 3-mode devices where we had a low collection rate during the year. In other words, the percentage of calendar 2014 units that were reported to us came in higher than previously expected. As we continue to implement our compliance and audit plans, as well as conclude new 3-mode license agreements we believe that this collection percentage will continue to increase and we are seeing early evidence of that in the March quarter sales. While we are making good progress we do expect this process to extend beyond this fiscal year. It is also possible that in some cases it may require litigation and/or actions to compel certain licensees to honour the contracts and for unlicensed companies to execute new licences. We are prepared to pursue that path if it becomes necessary. We are raising our fiscal year outlook for QTL based on favourable total reported device sales in the second fiscal quarter, in addition to higher forecasted total reported device sales for the second half of the fiscal year. Total reported device sales for the second fiscal quarter came in above the high-end of our guidance range, a portion of which was driven by higher than expected catch up amounts. Our outlook for the second half of the fiscal year reflects updated favourable reported device sales trend, improved compliance in China, and expected continued progress on concluding license agreements in China, offset by foreign exchange headwinds. We now expect QTL revenues to grow approximately 8% at the midpoint year-over-year. This includes the favourable effect of some catch up payments for prior sales offset by the negative effect of foreign exchange, without including these two effects we estimate that QTL revenues would grow by more than 8% in fiscal 2015, as we believe the negative foreign exchange impact is larger than the catch up benefit. Turning to our view of global 3G, 4G device demand we continue to see very healthy growth and have increased our calendar 2014 global 3G, 4G device shipment estimate to approximately 1.37 billion units, up approximately 27% year-over-year. As a reminder, this includes those devices we expect to be reported to us, as well as our estimates of unreported and unlicensed device sales, but excludes TD-SCDMA devices that do not implement LTE. We saw strength in both developed and emerging regions during 2014 and finished the year with favourable replacement rate trends in developed regions, as well as LTE volume strength, particularly in China. We expect these growth trends to continue throughout calendar 2015. We now expect global 3G, 4G device shipments to be 1.25 billion units to 1.6 billion units in calendar 2015, up approximately 11% to 17% with our buyers continuing to be towards the high end of that range. It’s worth noting that we are still in the very early days of LTE adoption. According to GSMA intelligence only 8% of global connections are LTE. In February, China granted nationwide FTD-LTE licenses to both China Telecom and China Unicom, each of the Chinese operators has announced significant investments in LTE network build-outs and has set aggressive targets for subscriber additions this year. For calendar year 2014, we are increasing our estimate of reported 3G, 4G devices to between 1.17 4 billion units and 1.19 billion units. Turning to estimated 3G, 4G device ASPs, the ASP of devices reported to QTL during the second quarter of fiscal 2015 was approximately $196 at the mid-point. Absent the effect of prior period catch up units the reported ASP would have been approximately $211 at the mid-point up $14 sequentially, driven by stronger ASPs in both emerging and developed regions, reflecting a favourable mix of higher tier handsets. We are now forecasting global 3G, 4G device DSPs to the decline approximately 11% to 12% year-over-year in fiscal 2015, an improvement to our previous estimate of 12% to 13%, despite an increase in negative foreign exchange effects. The improvement is primarily due to a favourable mix of higher tier handsets and stronger pricing in the low to mid-tiers of LTE devices in China. We now expect global 3G, 4G total device sales in fiscal 2015 to be up approximately 8% to 11% over fiscal 2014, despite foreign exchange headwinds, driven by both stronger units and ASP, particularly in emerging regions. Turning to the regulatory issues, we have been notified that the Korean fair trade commission is conducting a new investigation of the company. We believe this new investigation relates primarily to our licensing business and we are cooperating with the agency. To conclude, QTL is making good progress on our efforts in China, while experiencing strength in underlying demand where we continue to see strong global 3G, 4G device sales and stronger global ASP trends. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to George Davis.
George Davis :
Thank you Derek and good afternoon everyone. Fiscal second-quarter revenues were $6.9 billion, up 8% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.40, up 7% year-over-year at the high end of for prior guidance range. In QCT, MSM shipments were $233 million in-line with expectation with revenue of $4.4 billion. Implied revenue for MSM was approximately $19, down slightly quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a lower mix of premium tier shipments than previously expected. QCT operating margin was 17% in-line with our prior expectations. In QTL, total reported device sales for our licensees were a record $75.8 billion, up 14% year-over-year and at the high end of our guidance range, including the impact of our higher than expected catch up report. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses increased 2% sequentially, driven primarily by seasonal increases in payroll taxes. We continue our aggressive capital return program, returning approximately $2.6 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $689 million of dividends paid and $1.9 billion in stock repurchases. And as you will recall, in March we announced a major increase in our capital return program, including an increase in our stock repurchase authorization to $15 billion and our plans for a $10 billion buyback in the next 12 months, which is incremental to our ongoing return of a minimum of 75% of free cash flow. Fiscal second quarter cash flow from operations was negative at approximately $650 million this quarter reflecting a long-term capacity prepayment of approximately $950 million made by QCT as part of our supply chain cost reduction initiatives and the payment of the approximately $975 million NDRC fine. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $29.6 billion. Our non-GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 20% above expectations due to business mix. We now expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 19% for fiscal 2015. Looking ahead, as we already indicated, we are reducing our financial forecast for fiscal 2015 primarily due to lower excepted and profitability in the premium tier for the QCT business. We now estimate fiscal 2015 revenues overall to be in the range of approximately $25 billion to $27 billion, down approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. The increased impact of the product cycle issues in QCT is affecting our revenue and margin outlook for the chip business. We now expect QCT revenue for the fiscal year to be down approximately 6% year-over-year with operating margin for fiscal 2015 between 14% and 17%. We expect combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense to be up 1% to 3% year-over-year. This represents a reduction of 2% overall relative to our prior guidance, however, this outlook does not factor in potential reductions to be identified as part of the cost assessment that Steve discussed. On the QTL, as Derek indicated, we are raising our fiscal 2015 revenue outlook to approximately 8% growth year-over-year reflecting higher total reported device sales as well as the larger than forecasted catch up royalties reported this past quarter. We continue to expect QTL operating margins will be within our prior 85% to 86% guidance range. We expect fiscal 2015 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $4.60 to $5, down approximately 9% year-over-year at the midpoint relative to fiscal 2015 and down $0.15 at the midpoint from our prior guidance. Turning to our fiscal third quarter, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion, down approximately 15% year-over-year and 16% sequentially at the midpoint. The sequential changes reflect both the chip revenue challenges and the normal seasonal effects of QTL coming of its seasonal peak quarter. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal third quarter to be in the range of $0.85 to $1 dollar per share, down approximately 36% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up 6% to 8% sequentially, primarily driven by QCT product roadmap spend that back half loaded, certain supply chain initiatives, as well as cost related to marketing and legal. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $61 billion to $67 billion will be reported by our licensees in the June quarter for shipments they made in the March quarter, up approximately 10% year-over-year at the midpoint, but lower sequentially as compared to the seasonally higher holiday quarter shipments in Q2. We estimate that the QTL reported device ASP will be modestly up versus the second fiscal quarter, which included higher-than-expected lower price catch up units. We expect QTL’s operating margin percentage to be between 83% and 85%, lower sequentially due to seasonal factors, OEM mix, as well as increases in marketing and legal expenses. We expect that the implied royalty rate as we calculate it will be lower quarter-over-quarter, reflecting licensee mix, as well as the impact of the new licensing terms in China. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 210 million to 230 million units during the June quarter, down approximately 6% sequentially and down approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect revenue per MSM to be down 8% to 9% sequentially due to unfavorable mix in the premium tier and price competition in the mid tier. We expect QCT operating margin for this product cycle to bottom in the fiscal third quarter at approximately 7% to 10% of revenue, reflecting lower volumes, weaker mix, and timing of roadmap spending pushed into the quarter. That concludes my comments and will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long:
Thank you. Just a question on the chip side, I guess you mentioned before the GS6, you also mentioned the Note, so just curious is that this upcoming one later this year? And maybe talk a little bit about how we should think about the rest of Samsung’s portfolio? And clearly, it’s hit the revenue numbers, I’m curious if that’s also been something that looks like the gross margin is down again for the division. So if you could just maybe touch on Samsung impact across the model? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Hi, Tim, it’s Steve. So you should think of the current generation of flagship products at Samsung. We anticipate a similar share picture than what you see today on the GS6. I think that’s what we’re seeing. Now, next design cycle, as I mentioned in my remarks, I think we feel that we have a very competitive roadmap. We are also seeing OEMs and I think the supplies to that OEM, looking at their portfolio and rationalizing, what that really means is putting more concentration on the newer products and less on the legacy products as you would typically see in a particular year and that obviously given our design and share impacts the outlook as well. So, those product cycle issues I think we’re seeing being compounded by the fact that the premium tier is very concentrated really in two players right now.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff:
Hi, guys. Can you perhaps talk about some of the cost synergies or cost saving that you might see as you go through this kind of evaluation of your cost structure? Are you targeting things like wafer design cycle times? Or can you maybe talk about it and how do you see that potentially helping your operating margins particularly in QCT as move forward? Thanks.
George Davis:
Hi, Brian, it’s George. I would call it an acceleration of many of the things that we started in 2014, which were fairly comprehensive. We brought down the rate of spending substantially in 2014 exiting the year lower than the run rate we had coming into 2014. We then forecasted to bring it down further in 2015 and we’ve actually are a couple of points below our original guidance on OpEx as well. But we will be looking pretty comprehensively across the board and certainly that touches everything from how can we be – become more efficient testing projects once again for ROI and things like that. So, as you would expect, it will be comprehensive and we look forward to reporting on it next quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley:
Great, thanks. Just down on the last two questions, on the QCT with operating margins potentially bottoming out below 10% in the third quarter, September quarter, and you talked about it extending into the first half of fiscal 2016. Other than looking at operating cost, how does the gross margin improve given the competitive cost environment? Or to ask it another way what’s the timeframe in the thought process to maybe get back to high-teens to 20% operating margins in QCT? Thank you.
George Davis:
I think we view it as a bottom because, first, Q3 really is an incredibly concentrated quarter when you look at the premium tier and it has within that meaningful Samsung GS6 impact. We expect to see some improvement with the premium tier launches of other leading OEMs that use our Snapdragon. We also expect cost and efficiency activities to start to moderate some of the market structure impacts over time, but ultimately we are going to continue to invest strongly in the roadmap and we think that's the basis for having a competitive position in the next product cycle that is different than what we are experiencing now.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mike this is Steve, I think also if you look up and down the product line, the current product cycle that we are in at the top tier, we think it turns over with the 820, at the bottom tier you tend to see a modem transition, particularly in China, which is advantageous we think to us. We are also moving rapidly toward advanced notes which we think will actually help us in terms of delivering products to market at better costs. There is a little bit of a trough right now in the cost equation because we are at 20 nanometre. As we move on to further notes we think we get into a better cost perspective and I think we are differentiated also in our ability to do it. We are also - just to follow up on the cost side, cost structure of the company, we want to make sure that we put ourselves in the position, we are a little bit less sensitive to the these market dynamics and then we can write them out easier as well. One other thing element on that also is that the adjacent markets as they start to contribute more, again I said they were about 10% of QCT this year that tends to help us as well. They tend to be fairly highly leveraged from the same investment on the selling space.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum:
Hey guys appreciate it. I know Derek you are not going to totally tell us, but trying to try and give a couple of data points you gave us with respect to the catch up and how large that was, any other information you can give us in terms of the access TRDS this quarter that the catch up helped would help kind of bridge the gap between the TRDS this quarter and next quarter. So, whatever you can do to give us a sense as to the size of the catch up period in this quarter would be helpful. Then Steve question on GS 6 and note going forward, I understand of the revolution of using your custom core and moving them to 14 nanometre et cetera with everything you said about concentration at the premium tier, if in a situation you don't get back into Samsung, where does that leave you? If your share in the GS 6 and note going forward is roughly the same as where it is now when it is back-and-forth, is there enough other market to make the margins work back into the 20% plus range at QCT?
Derek Aberle:
Hey this is Derek. Yes we are not, as you suspect we weren't planning on breaking out exactly the amount of the catch up. One of the points I wanted to highlight was we had 17% year-over-year growth in QTL this quarter and that was in the face of some meaningful foreign exchange headwinds. And so when you sort of looked at that impact netted against the catch up amount, you know the foreign exchange impact was actually for the year will be greater and would be for the quarter as well. So still even if you strip out the ketchup would be a record quarter for QTL and really strong growth.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And Ehud on the question about the premium tier and the concentration. First of all when we look at customer interest we don’t think that that is the scenario to plan for. We do think that our roadmap is very compelling, we like the impact that we are getting, the interest that we are getting from the OEMs, I think broadly we also think our business, which is also supported by our modem leadership also we think is in a good position when you look at the competitive dynamics as well. That being said, it would help us a lot if the industry structure was to be different. We don't have a lot of control over that, but I would say the history of that is that it does move around quite a bit. We want to be in a position to participate in that and I think one of the reasons that we are looking at our cost structure is to make that easier to handle, should we have to ride out a product cycle or not.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blaine Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Blaine Curtis:
Yes a [indiscernible], just maybe from a very high level you obviously already reduced full-year guidance based upon kind of same factors and Apples place generally hasn’t changed that much since December they had a knock out quarter and it’s been kind of holding in. Samsung has been very public about their AP plans for a longer time here for a change. So, I am just trying to figure out what has changed really since the end of the last year and definitely spend your first negative revision of maybe a billion dollars, now that you are doing again. And then when you look at gross margin, clearly the GS6 that shouldn’t have an impact on gross margin, I’m just curious it looks like it is down again in June. What’s really the driver for another step down over a couple hundred basis points? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
So, the change in the guidance is really more a change in our view of the sizing and concentration in the third quarter compared to our original estimates. And you know Steve talked about some things about some of the OEMS pushing out their timing based on what they were seeing in the marketplace and other factors. There is some gross margin impact actually that we see going into Q3 and then I think the balance of the impact is really the timing roadmap spending is heavier in the second half. I don’t know, if Steve, you want to say something.
Steve Mollenkopf:
I was just going to say, just a little bit of color from a perspective of an OEM, OEMs typically have a pretty broad portfolio and they may put emphasis in one place or another depending on the reaction of a flagship launch and the timing of a flagship launch. I think this year is probably characterised a bit by the first calendar quarter of 2015 was probably a little stronger in quarter for U.S. based flagship company. And then people move around I think based off of big launch. So, I think when the Galaxy S6 came out people moved around their plans a little bit, including Samsung. So, that tends to ripple through to us beyond our control. Those things can also change a lot during the year, but I think this is our best estimate of where we are today.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha :
Thanks. My question is for Derek on the licensing side, what I'm trying to understand is I think you said you had signed 35 licensees on these new terms since you’ve started discussing with them recently, can you give us some kind of broad indications to, does that actually cover a significant part of the forms that you weren't licensing the 200 million or so run rate. That’s just one question, because I’m trying to think about the visibility you might have as we head into fiscal year 2016 of recapturing some of those licensing revenues. That's my kind of first question. The second one is as I think about what you weren’t collecting on last year that 200 million number this year would have grown I assume given the market shares the Chinese vendors have gained and they would have grown revenues quite meaningfully as well. So, should we think about at some point over the next whether it is one two or three years? That 200 million unit number which has a revenue number attached to it in TDRS, so you then license against and it should be significantly higher when it starts coming in or is that the wrong way of thinking about it. Thanks.
Derek Aberle :
Kulbinder this is Derek. So just to be clear the 200 million number that we put out for 2014 is sort of a combination of units that we think are actually being sold by licensees who didn't report them, as well as basically unlicensed activity, you know the most prominent one we talked about is 3-mode. So, it is a little bit hard to translate that over into the – kind of the new terms. If you think about the new terms that we are going out to offer, if the licensees accept them after we offer them and discuss them with them they will impact both the 3G volumes which would be sort of how we’ve thought about the under reported amounts, as well as then impact the 3-mode, which we had kind of bucketed at unlicensed. So it is a little bit hard to split that out in terms of what percentage get picked up that we weren't collecting anything on at all, but we are, well I think we are making good progress, we've got relatively significant number that kind of run the spectrum of very large to small companies that have already accepted the terms and generally when they’ve accepted them they’ve applied to the 3-mode devices sold for use in China. So, I think that has been a positive trend for us. There have been a couple of other positive things. One is as I try to explain the market we think actually came in larger in 2014 than we thought when we originally gave out that 200 million unit number, which means by that holding steady effectively our collection percentage went up. It also went up in the face of kind of a worse or a more difficult market shift because more of the market also we believe was three-mode where there is a larger portion of unlicensed activity. So kind of in a worsening marketing environment and a growing market, we were able to kind of hold the number flat, which means we are making progress. We believe that that’s going to better even going into the March quarter based on the early evidence we’re seeing. And we do have kind of a plan as we’ve talked about that – that the past sales will be things that we are working on to drive collection, but it’s going to take some time and I think we’ve indicated just where we sit in the fiscal year with kind of the June cut off for shipments flowing into our fiscal year. It’s likely that more of that will come-in in fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2015.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, if I sort of back into the royalty rate trajectory, you seem to be guiding royalty rates or implied rates next quarter to maybe 3%, probably down 20 basis points and maybe even a little more in fiscal Q4. So I’m assuming that is mix as the China volume starts to come back in which it actually is coming at the lower rate, how should I think about the trajectory of royalty rates as I go into 2016 and beyond is presumably the Chinese volume should be the piece that’s growing the biggest and it will be under the new royalty rate terms?
Derek Aberle:
Hey, Stacy, this is Derek. Yeah, I mean we’ve indicated that. If you look at sort of quarter-over-quarter Q1 to Q2 relatively speaking sort of in line in terms of the implied rate that you guys calculate, we do see that taking a step down in the back half of the year and I think you pretty much hit it on the head that really the primary drivers, there’s some OEM mix in there and a number of the other factors that always move it around. But we do expect a couple of things impacting the back half, two of which are the licensees, kind of the impact of the licensees accepting the China terms in China, but also with us concluding agreements on three-mode where we were collecting before. As we bring that revenue into the program that will come in at a lower rate as we talked about when we announced the resolution. So kind of the combination of those factors will push it down. Really hard to say longer-term beyond kind of this year where that goes just for all the reasons I’ve previously explained in terms of market share of OEMs and ASPs and caps and all the other drivers that moving around.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James Faucette:
Great. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask two follow-up questions on a lot of those that have already been asked. First, can you talk a little bit about from a visibility standpoint, I think one of the things that may be concerning to some investors is, I guess, the poor or lack of visibility relative to new product launches. They seem to taking a little bit by surprise. Can you talk about it if that indeed has been the case et cetera on the chip side? And then on the royalty side, Derek, I just wanted to ask about, as you are addressing the new licensing structure how are you handling the non-essential IP licensing and how we should think about the impact of that and can you give us any sense of – I know that you weren’t very specific in terms of like what the – the rate at which things are – or you are signing up new licensees, but that it’s improving. But in the long run how should we think about your – what a reasonable alternate capture rate should be and that kind of thing? Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
James on the chip side, the way I think about it – one of the big OEMs what they tend to do, in fact the one that you are probably concerned with, they tend to hold two designs until very late in the process and make a decision very late in the process. And in some cases, actually might go to market with multiple designs, one with our chip, one not with our chip, and then make a decision regionally even during the ramp of the design. So it can be quite difficult to project share and units as a result of doing that much later in the process than I think people typically think. The other element which is mix of OEMs and who wins in the marketplace and whether an OEM decides to rationalize their portfolio by no longer focusing on SKUs in the n-1 product cycle for example. That tends to be something that we don’t have great visibility into and it tends to be something that the market controls. So I think we are all trying to figure out how to get a better handle on that.
Derek Aberle:
And then – it’s Derek. So, on the first question, which really was around how we are going to deal with the patents that are sort of outside the scope of the commitment we made to the NDRC. As you know, we’ve typically licensed generally our whole portfolio together, but one of the things that we agreed to as part of the rectification plan in China is that we would separately offer to license just the 3G/4G essential Chinese patents and then we would negotiate agreements for the rest of the portfolio kind of separate from that. So really the first order of business for us is to go out and really implement the commitment that we made which is to offer these terms and around the essential portfolio and get those concluded. And then as part of those discussions, it could involve some of the other patents or we could end up dealing with the need for licenses to the rest of the portfolio down the road a little bit. What we’ve included in our guidance and are thinking around fiscal 2015 really just is based on what we would expect to collect on the essential portfolio and doesn’t build in incremental revenue at this point for the remainder of the portfolio, although we do believe there is an opportunity there. On compliance, we think that we are in a position really to kind of drive the business back more to normal course before we had the investigation and I think we are pleased with some of the early trends we are seeing. It’s going to take some time to get there, but we do believe that we can get back to a high compliance environment in China with some of the tools that we have available to us and now with the investigation behind us. We do also think there is going to be some industry dynamics that will help, I do think there is going to be consolidation around the OEM base in China, so you’ll have a fewer number of larger payers, which I think is just an easier thing to deal with from compliance standpoint than a lot of smaller players. And they are going to build successful export businesses where there is a need to play by international rules both inside and outside of China. So I think over time those trends really point in a positive direction for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani:
Hi, guys. I just have two questions quick questions kind of big one. First, when it comes to exchange rate, are we – what’s the mechanism for exchange rate? Is there a risk that actually you see the impact of exchange rate next quarter because of the mechanism that you can clarify? And then the weird question I have is really for next year and this question was asked many times, but may be a different way, is it all – if you think about competition, I mean you think about MediaTek and Intel and Marvell and the local Chinese, how does it get better from here? I understand that this one is a trough from an expense point of view and margin point of view, but on the business, how does it get better from here? What needs to happen for you to see growth in revenues on the semiconductor side? And let me stop here [indiscernible]. Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Tal, this is Derek. Maybe I will answer your first question on the FX. Really the primary FX effect on the company is really around the licensing business. And couple of things to remember there I think that you know is that obviously the sales are reported to us one quarter in arrears. But the basic – probably the most significant exposure for us is really the euro and basically when the licensees and not all of them do it the same, so it’s somewhat difficult to always estimate precisely the impacts, but I think we have a pretty good sense of it at a higher magnitude. But basically there is a mechanism for them to convert their sales in local euro back into dollars for purposes to calculate in the royalties and that creates an impact to the business. If you think about this year, in particular, there is probably at least a couple of percentage points of revenue growth that QTL has been impacted by just on FX alone.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And on next year and to the forward-looking view in terms of the competitive environment, it’s – I would say for us, it’s – we don’t see it changing that much and I would say our view of the current competitive environment may be different than what you see, you know we look at the modem tier and modem leadership and the accounts where that’s important and we pretty good about our position there. I think that’s an important differentiator for us. We have also moved quickly to advanced nodes. One of the things we did this year and we are currently investing in is moving rapidly across the tiers to the advanced nodes, which we think is a good strategy and enables us to leverage our feature leadership in the premium tier down and that I think has good results. It's being offset a little bit now because of the concentration in the premium tier, so you're not seeing that maybe as broadly as you would think. The product cycle is quite fast in China as I mentioned. The modem transition later this year, I think a number of OEM, our competitors are having a difficult time producing five more designs and certainly have in the ability to do multi-SIM and all of the VOIP and international features that allow them to grow, at the same time we are changing the table stakes across the tiers on the modem. So we actually view our roadmap as getting stronger over time at least based on our view of the competitive environment. I don't think at the premium tier with the exception of the vertical threat at one of the OEMs. We don’t see that dynamic being as threatening as perhaps was implied in the question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Thank you very much I had two. First of all Steve, can you again just from a higher level, can you remind us or maybe discuss the high level merits for keeping the two businesses together. You had filed previously to spit the business up in the past, but you are being hit with these investigations and this new one from Korea. So again just getting your view there would be good. And then secondly I noted that George talked about having to pre-pay 950 million for some capacity and that’s in the space of declining economics in the ship business. So, I was wondering if you can just discuss how we should be thinking about that pre-payment is this opportunistic or is it more of a defensive I guess?
Steve Mollenkopf:
So, on the business structure it’s something that we’ve looked out throughout the company’s history, I think a couple of times even publically it is something that is constantly and periodically discussed at the management team and at the board level. There are lot of puts and takes and those puts and takes change over time depending on the situation, but I would say just broadly you should think of the businesses as having significant synergies in the ability to deliver products to market. So, for example the channel of QCT is very, very important to be able to introduce new technology into the industry and share it’s scale and be able to work. There are many things like that, but that is one of the ones that we want to make sure we can maintain, particularly given that we are driving into an environment where you’re going to see convergence between Wi-Fi and Cellular and the modem itself is moving much more rapidly then I think people are thinking. At the same time the industry, the number of players who are investing in those technologies and that breadth of technology is decreasing. So we think we have an opportunity for us to continue to deliver modem innovation. That being said, it is something that we actively evaluate and it’s obviously something that is one the minds of investors and something that we spend time talking to them actively about getting their perspective.
George Davis:
Hey Tim, it’s George. On the capacity pre-payment it’s really part of our overall supply chain initiative to drive more cost effective supply chain and it’s an opportunity that we saw and that our partners saw to bring them a little bit more certainly and for them to provide us with a better long term cost roadmap.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.
C.J. Muse:
Yes good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess first question, in terms of QCT, can you walk through implied PBT [ph] margins into September and your long term outlook for MSM pricing and then a little bit bigger picture thanking on the chipset side. As you think about adjacent growth, particularly hyper connected areas like IOT and Auto, do you have the scale across technology customer relationships and distribution to succeed or do you need to look at acquisitions, and if yes, would you consider large scale M&A, or would you continue to focus solely bolt-on acquisitions. Thank you.
George Davis:
It’s George. On our margin you are seeing the effects both of the positioning within the premium tier which is having some impact on the gross margin, but also primarily it’s the increase in Opex in the quarter having a little bit of an effect as well. So, it is a combination of mix of the Opex effects and just the market overall in the third quarter.
A – Steve Mollenkopf:
And with respect to the adjacent businesses, there are a lot of technologies that are leveraged from the mobile space. There are some things that are not, for example, we got things like networking from the Atheros acquisition and we believe we are going to get a strong portfolio of technologies with the announced acquisition of CSR, which we hope will close here in this year. I think one of the things you get besides technology is the sales channel and the ability to sell into different types of customer then our current slate in the handset business. And we actively plan that out and that’s one of the reasons why we have done M&A. It is also I think an environment in the industry right now where there is a lot of consolidation, particularly in the semi-conductor space and it is something that we think about and I think we can potentially have an opportunity to de-risk some of those things if we continue down through our strategy and we are trying to keep our strategic options open at the same maintain our capital structure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri with CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.
Srini Pajjuri:
Thank you. Steve, this question has been asked, but I just want to ask a little differently, you said in the modem differentiation is your key competitive advantage and you seem to be banking on that, you know to regain some of the business, I am just curious you know given that in a lead that you have, it appears that Samsung is using an internal modem even now, even though I guess they could have used your modem with their own processor, I am just wonder, is the modem technology that mature that customers don’t care as much about the differentiation or in a - what do you think cause that.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Well I think when you have a vertical decision there could be many more elements in the decision than just technical merits or what might have happened outside of that environment. They have the ability to share one place or the other. When we look at the tier downs of those decisions we tend to see that it compares at least from a feature and a geography point of view to a product that we probably delivered two generations ago. So, I would actually view it as more evidence of our modem lead. Now it is possible to portions of the SKUs without having the modem expertise, but I think you are always better off having in the application processor and the modem together and have that worldwide scale, particularly given the industry structure today. We are seeing that the very attractive in the case of the internal OEMs or the Chinese OEMs that want to go international. So, we still think that modem is an important component. If you look what’s in the head of any modem player they have enormous number of [indiscernible] they have to sink up Wi-Fi and the cellular network. Just recently the FCC gave a very positive ruling on the spectrum that will be used for LTE-U. So, we think the modem still has an enormous migration and then upstream and then beyond that you are going to have 5G. So the modem continues to be big. In addition, hopefully we are not downplaying the strength of our application process. So, we have – we think the best mobile CPU coming and that’s going to be a portfolio of products, not just one product and our strength in the GPU is, I think quite strong, we are market leader in terms of mobile GPU shipments and look at the performance of the 89, 94 I think you would see it’s quite strong. So, we feel like we are in a good position. We just need to get through this product cycle, maintain the investment in the roadmap and at the same time sort of get ourselves in a position where we can weather out these storms a little bit easier and I think we are going to have a reasonable business there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt:
Thanks for taking my question. Derek you ran through a few numbers, now I want to make sure I had them right, they are not addition up to me. I think you said QTL ASP this year would be down 11% to 12% in the fiscal year. Device sales would be up 8% to 11% but revenues will be up 8% or so, was that the right numbers for fiscal 2015?
George Davis:
So I think we probably – we kind of mix-and-match a little bit. The units are for calendar year. The ASP that we gave was a global ASP, that’s remember not the one that necessarily will get reported to us, that sort of the all-in number assuming we were getting 100% compliance. We haven’t given guidance on a reported ASP for fiscal 2015 for a number of reasons, including it’s probably going to get bounced around by things like catch up payments and the timing of signing some of these new agreements. So I think that may be your difficulty in trying to triangulate the numbers back to the 8% revenue guide for QTL.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Sue:
Thank you. In the past [indiscernible], it didn’t make economic sense where some of the smartphone makers do spend money to develop their own chipsets just for their internal consumption. However, it doesn’t seem that would change anytime soon because the market is maturing and Samsung, Apple, they all want to focus on improving their margins. So within those confines, how should we think about the automation in terms of pushing it to new markets outside of smartphones and how to fund those investments so that we can actually see a better return on the invested capital in other segments of the business? Thank you, gentlemen.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mark, you are breaking up a little bit. So I will try to answer what the question was and I think it was related to how we can continue to invest and have confidence given that some people are trying to go internal. Our evaluation of the efforts to go internal, they actually tend to be more expensive than if you had bought them externally, particularly when you amortize the R&D investment across all of the many different technologies that are required to produce and integrate it or a mobile smartphone offering. In fact, I would say, particularly, given the fact that in some cases people are launching very early in the node, you really pay a penalty for yield. And our estimate is that it would be quite expensive right now to be launching without good yield. I think you will also see if you look at teardowns, the difference between the size both footprint on the board as well as cost to assemble all of the components that we have in Snapdragon using external partners, it tends to be fairly expensive. For example, Snapdragon has GPS integrated inside of it and putting that on externally tends to be fairly expensive. There are number of things, codec, a number of things that sit there and become more expensive. So our view of the trend is that things are moving more toward integrated versus less toward integrated. And when we look at the economics, it’s quite difficult we think to have people compete, have the same internal offering unless you have a fairly large scale, R&D scale.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you very much for your attention. We look forward to a call next quarter and will give you an update on our cost initiative at the time. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - VP, IR Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Ehud Gelblum - Citi Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company Stacy Rasgon - Bernstein Tavis McCourt - Raymond James Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Tal Liani - Bank of America Rod Hall - JPMorgan Amit Shah - Nomura Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets Brett Simpson - Arete
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, January 28, 2015. The playback number for today’s call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 55501467. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast is accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our Web site at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our Web site. I'd also like to direct you to our 10-Q and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our Web site. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the Company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now to comments from Qualcomm’s Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon everyone. We delivered a strong quarter, achieving record revenues and non-GAAP operating income. QCT shipped a record number of MSM chipsets and delivered our highest ever revenue and earnings before tax. QTL operating performance was ahead of expectations and I am pleased to report that we have resolved our previously disclosed dispute with a large Chinese licensee. We are continuing to cooperate with the NDRC, as it conducts its investigation and believe it is progressing toward a resolution. During the quarter we also returned approximately $2.4 billion to stockholders through dividends and buyback activity, consistent with our increased capital return targets. Turning to QCT, our first fiscal quarter was very strong with revenues in MSM chip shipments up 14% and 27% year-over-year respectively. MSM chip shipments were at the high end of our expectations as we saw broad strength across multiple OEMs, driven by demand in emerging regions and strong device replacement in the U.S. While our outlook for the first half of the fiscal year is ahead of our prior expectations, our QCT forecast for the second half of the fiscal year has been reduced due to a number of factors. First, we are currently seeing a shift in share among OEMs at the premium tier, which has reduced the near term addressable opportunity for our Snapdragon processors and has skewed our product mix towards more modem chipsets in this tier. Second, we now expect that our Snapdragon 810 processor will not be in the upcoming design cycle of a large customer’s flagship device, impacting our outlook for both volume and content in that device. And thirdly, although we had a very strong competitive position exiting fiscal 2014, we are seeing heightened competition in China at the mid and high tiers. We are continuing to gain share year-over-year with OEMs based in China, but not at the pace we had previously expected. This is in part due to some product challenges with one of our chips in meeting some of the more demanding design points of those tiers. This has provided an opening to competitors who are being very aggressive in order to establish a position in the marketplace, resulting in more pricing pressure than previously expected. We have already addressed many of the initial product challenges in order to support early customer device launches in these tiers and are continuing to further enhance the performance of this chip. As a result, we continue to expect to see a broad range of devices successfully launch and drive volume with this chip. We estimate that these factors will impact our QCT revenue growth and operating margins through the near term product cycles. However despite these near term factors, our view of the long-term strategic environment and QCT’s leadership position remains strong. Despite -- our design momentum for the Snapdragon 810 processor remains robust, with more than 60 products in the pipeline, including the recently announced LG G Flex2 and the Xiaomi Mi Pro Note. Snapdragon 810 is performing well and we look forward to a growing number of devices to be launched by our customers throughout the year. Snapdragon 810 delivers 64 bit CPU capability using licensed technology and is fabricated in 20 nanometer. As you know, the use of internally designed custom CPUs has been a core part of our strategy that has worked well for some time. With the 810 we made a conscious decision to use licensed cores to accommodate the accelerated shift to 64 bit. The competitive landscape has underscored the importance of differentiation associated with our internal custom designs and looking ahead, our next premium processor will use our own 64 bit custom CPU architecture as well as the most advanced process node. We expect this product to sample in the latter half of calendar 2015. In China, the expanded FDD licenses increased competition between carriers, and the accelerated pace of LTE device penetration aligns with QCT’s LTE leadership. We believe we are well positioned going forward for three primary reasons. First, we expect a modem transition driven by LTE Advanced, including uplink carrier aggregation will drive a new device design cycle beginning later this year, which our roadmap anticipates. Second, we will drive our roadmap to advanced performance nodes to enable us to competitively address the opportunities ahead. And finally we are differentiated both in terms of features and scale, which will allow us to help OEM’s based in China, meet the specification and deployment challenges related to expanding their businesses outside of China. For Qualcomm overall, our longer-term growth drivers remain strong, both in smartphones and adjacent areas where our mobile technologies and capabilities can bring next generation solutions; areas such as automotive, Internet of Things, mobile computing, networking, small cells and datacenter solutions. As a Consumer Electronics Show, it was clear that many industries looking to leverage mobile technologies into their products and businesses are looking to the leaders in mobile such as Qualcomm for support creating an Internet of Everything. We demonstrated a broad set of products and equipment that are already shipping with Qualcomm solutions inside, including the areas of automotive, smart home, smart city, networking, mobile healthcare and wearables. On a related note, the very strong results of the AWS-3 spectrum auction here in the U.S. reinforces the need to continue to invest in cutting edge modem technologies that provide great user experiences, while helping operators improve their return on the spectrum asset investments. We are very well positioned to enable operators and OEMs to bring new spectrum bands online as quickly and as broadly as possible with technologies such as advanced carrier aggregation. I would like to now turn the call over to Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you Steve and good afternoon everyone. QTL delivered a strong quarter with revenue and earnings ahead of expectations and total reported device sales of $56.4 billion, which was slightly above the midpoint of our prior guidance. I am also pleased to report that we have resolved the dispute with major Chinese licensee that we previously disclosed. Importantly, we were able to successfully resolve this dispute despite the pending NDRC investigation. In addition to the licensee agreeing to report and pay royalties on past unreported sales, the resolution includes an expansion of the existing license agreement to include royalty bearing licenses for 4G only products, including 3-mode LTE smartphones sold for use in China. We believe the licensee has fully reported its September quarter shipments in our first fiscal quarter and we expect the licensee to report in our second fiscal quarter a catch up for units that were sold in periods prior to the September quarter, but were not previously reported due to the dispute. We continue to believe that some of our Chinese licensees are not reporting all of their sales of licensed products. We have increased the number of audits that we are conducting of these licensees and are attempting to resolve the instances of under reporting. While we always prefer to resolve these types of issues amicably with our licensees, we are of course prepared to enforce our rights under our license agreements if that becomes necessary. Although we continue to sign new 4G only and other license agreements, including in China and the recent resolution of the licensee dispute gives us even greater confidence that we'll be able to collect royalties over time on substantially all LTE device shipments, including 3-mode devices in China, and other currently unlicensed products. OEMs supplying a meaningful portion of 3-mode devices and lower Tier 3G connected tablets remained unlicensed. We are in discussions with many of these OEMs and are making progress, but we expect it will take some time to conclude all of the negotiations. As to the NDRC investigation we are continuing to engage and fully cooperate with the NDRC as it conducts its investigation. We have discussed with the NDRC a number of proposals for addressing its concerns and we believe we are making progress towards a potential resolution. Having said that, the timing and outcome of any potential resolution remains uncertain as does the potential impact on our future business in China. Now let me provide an update of our view of global 3G/4G device demand. We’re seeing demand for global 3G/4G devices continue to grow at a very healthy pace and we have increased our calendar global 3G/4G device shipment estimate to approximately 1.35 billion units, up approximately 25% year-over-year. As a reminder, this includes those devices we expect to be reported to us through the first calendar quarter of 2015 as well as our estimates of unreported and unlicensed device sales, but excludes TD-SCDMA devices that do not implement LTE. The broad availability of compelling devices at the mid and low price tiers in emerging regions is driving strong demand for and migration to 3G/4G devices. We’re also seeing an increase in the replacement rate of devices in the United States. Looking forward, we are also increasing our estimate for calendar 2015 global 3G/4G device shipments. We now expect approximately 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion units to be shipped during 2015, up approximately 11% to 19% year-over-year, with a bias towards the high end of the range driven by continued positive upgrade trends in the United States and accelerating migrations to 3G/4G devices in China, and other emerging regions. As we explained last quarter, several factors primarily related to challenges in China are currently causing shipments reported by our licensees to be less than the global 3G/4G unit shipments I just explained. For calendar year 2014 we are increasing our estimate of reported 3G/4G devices to between 1.135 billion and 1.175 billion units, which is approximately 200 million units below the global 3G/4G device estimate of approximately 1.35 billion units at the mid-point. This represents our current view of unreported and unlicensed activity for calendar year 2014, and after adjusting for resolution of the dispute, is in line with our prior expectation of the percentage of global device shipments that we expect to be unreported or unlicensed. Turning to estimated 3G/4G device ASPs, the ASP of devices reported to QTL during the first quarter of fiscal 2015 was approximately $197 at the mid-point. The sequential decline in the reported ASP was primarily driven by a weaker premium tier in the September quarter, ahead of new flagship launches, heavier price reductions of certain handset models, additional reported units from the Chinese licensee whose dispute we resolved and foreign exchange effects. In the second fiscal quarter, we expect both the global and reported ASPs to be higher sequentially as the strong holiday season at the mid and high-tiers more than offset some additional foreign exchange headwinds. We expect the reported ASP will be significantly impacted by the dilutive effects of catch up units sold during several prior periods that we expect to be reported in the second quarter as a result of resolution of a licensee dispute. We are now forecasting global 3G/4G device ASPs to decline approximately 12% to 13% year-over-year in fiscal 2015 instead of our previous estimate of 9% to 10%. With the delta being driven by stronger than expected unit growth in emerging regions, the September quarter pause in the premium tier, increased OEM competition and mix shifts and negative effects of foreign exchange, which alone contributes approximately $2 of the ASP decline. Within this overall view we are seeing relative stability in developed region ASPs as well as increasing ASPs from Chinese based OEMs. In total we expect global 3G/4G device sales in fiscal 2015 to be up approximately 6% to 9% over fiscal 2014 global 3G/4G device sales, which is in line with previous expectations as the growth in volume from an increase in the replacement rates in the U.S. and accelerated emerging region migration offsets moderately increased ASP declines, including the expected impact of foreign exchange headwinds. To conclude, we continue to see strong 3G/4G device demand from both higher replacement rates and faster 2G to 3G/4G migration. We are pleased to have resolved the previously disclosed dispute with the major Chinese licensee, and we remain focused on resolving our remaining challenges in China. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to George Davis.
George Davis:
Thank you Derek and good afternoon everyone. Our first quarter results came in above expectations on better than expected operating performance from both QCT and QTL. Fiscal first quarter revenues were a record $7.1 billion, up 7% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.34, up 6% year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.10 above the $1.24 mid-point of our prior guidance range. QCT accounted for approximately half of the upside on strong MSM demand and lower operating expenses, with the balance coming from improved total reported device sales, lower operating expenses in QTL and other businesses, as well as the restatement of the R&D tax credit. In QTL total reported device sales by our licensees were $56.4 billion, slightly above the mid-point of our guidance range, with an average selling price of $197 at the mid-point and reported shipments of 286 million 3G/4G based devices at the mid-point. QCT achieved a number of records in this quarter including shipments of 270 million MSMs, revenues of $5.2 billion and earnings before tax of $1.1 billion. Revenue for MSM was lower sequentially as expected, reflecting a greater mix of modems. QCT operating margin was 22% in the fiscal first quarter, reflecting strong MSM shipments and lower operating expenses. For the Company overall, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were lower than our expectations, decreasing 3% sequentially, reflecting timing of certain program spending and cost initiatives in the quarter. Turning to capital structure, during the fiscal first quarter, we returned approximately $2.4 billion to stockholders, or 112% of free cash flow, including approximately $700 million of dividends paid and approximately $1.7 billion in stock repurchases. As of the end of the first fiscal quarter, we had approximately $3.6 billion remaining of our stock repurchase authorization. Additionally, since the end of the fiscal first quarter, we have repurchased an additional 6.8 million shares for approximately $500 million. Cash flow from operations was approximately $2.4 billion or 33% of revenues and we ended the fiscal first quarter with cash and marketable securities of $31.6 billion. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 18% in the fiscal first quarter and we now estimate that our fiscal 2015 non-GAAP tax rate will be approximately 18%, slightly higher than our original estimates on business mix. Now turning to our guidance for fiscal 2015, our revised financial guidance for the fiscal year reflects a reduced outlook for the QCT business in the second half of the fiscal year. We now expect 2015 total Qualcomm revenue to be in the range of $26 billion to $28 billion, up approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint and lower than our previous guidance midpoint by $800 million. We now expect 2015 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $4.75 to $5.05, down approximately 7% year-over-year at the midpoint and down 6% from our previous full year guidance midpoint. We estimate fiscal 2015 QCT operating margins will now be in the range of 16% to 18%, which reflects a reduction of about 200 basis points at the midpoint. Our QTL forecast for the fiscal year is modestly improved, driven by an improved TRDS outlook, partially offset by a modest increase and the impact of foreign exchange. We continue to expect that fiscal 2015 QTL operating margins will be approximately 85% to 86%. Combined non-GAAP, R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to grow approximately 3% to 5% year-over-year, in line with prior expectations. As a reminder, we continue to expect lower investment income in fiscal 2015 as compared to the strong investment gains supported in fiscal 2014 as we rebalance the risk levels in our investment portfolio. Looking to our guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2015, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $6.5 billion to $7.1 billion, up approximately 7% year-over-year at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our second fiscal quarter to be approximately $1.28 to $1.40 per share, up approximately 2% year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate second fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up 6% to 8% sequentially, reflecting normal increased seasonal expenses primarily related to employee payroll taxes. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $69.5 billion to $75.5 billion will be reported by our licensees in the March quarter for shipments they made in the December quarter, up approximately 9% year-over-year at the midpoint, reflecting the busy holiday season. We also expect to see a benefit from previously uncollected royalties for prior period sales related to the resolution of a customer dispute in China. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 220 million to 240 million units during the March quarter, down approximately 15% at the midpoint sequentially coming off the busy holiday quarter and up approximately 22% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect revenue per MSM to be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. We expect QCT operating margin to be approximately 16% to 17% in the fiscal second quarter, lower sequentially, reflecting the impact of lower seasonal volumes. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Brent, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James Faucette:
I guess I just want to focus on operating margins for QCT, et cetera. Can you give a little bit of color on what’s driving those down in the -- for the year, like how you're having to spend additional funding or spend additional money versus just pricing pressure and that kind of thing. And I'm also wondering if you can talk through more medium to long run what you think your to do list looks like to recapture the loss share and better reassert yourself in the markets where you're feeling the most pressure. Thank you.
George Davis:
This is George. Really the out margin effect in the near-term that we're talking about is really typical seasonal, coming off of a very strong December quarter. For the full year the reduction of the 200 basis points we talked about is really a function of the change in outlook for the year, which is being driven by impacts at the premium tier and so that’s having margin pressure. You're also seeing some of the OpEx benefit we saw in the first half was really timing of programs, and so that will be in the second half of the year, impacting margins as well.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And this is Steve. With respect to the medium tier, long tier, or long-term I think I would view this more as a product cycle issue versus anything else. If you look at -- one of the hardest things for us do is to project what the mix is going to be, whether we're going to sell a lot of thin modems or whether it’s going to be Snapdragon processors. And I think the largest impact in terms of the change of the outlook is really due to the mix of products. As I said in my remarks, the 810 is actually doing quite well. Any concerns about the 810 in terms of design traction really are probably limited to one OEM versus anything else. In the low tier in China it's very competitive right now, primarily because there are a number of new entrants trying to get share. We think there will be a modem transition in the second half of this year and we are anticipating that. We think that will be a good strategy. I think long-term though, I don’t think we see a change in the competitive dynamic, or even a change in the strategy of particular customers. We think this is more of a product issue.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff :
Steve, off that last statement you made in terms of modem transition in the back half of the year, can you give us more color around this? Is this still 20 nanometer? Is it going to be more of a 16? How is it going to different? And then what you're seeing competitively in China? Are you seeing competitors coming with something more than a 3-mode solution? Are you seeing something more advanced than that? And then on George, the question, or Derek, this licensee that you settled with in China, can you give us an idea of what the rates are for that licensee? Is it around your corporate average and it does include single mode LTE as well, and an ability to collect on that as well as collect on multimode that includes TD-SCDMA.
Steve Mollenkopf:
So Brian in China, we're not seeing anything different than really 3-mode in China. We're not seeing much ability for the competitors to go outside of China. And we have anticipated that carrier aggression would be important in China across tiers and we think that that will happen here sometime in the second half of the year. It’s always difficult to time transitions in China, but as you're aware, it’s a pretty fast moving situation there. If you look at really kind of year-over-year, we're still going to see share move up in China in these tiers. We just anticipated that it would grow even more. And that’s exacerbated by the pricing pressures as I mentioned. And so we're looking forward to see a modem transition. We will follow that up with FinFET products. Eventually we are going to transition our existing products to move advanced nodes but I'll try to keep some of that proprietary for us right now.
Derek Aberle:
Brian this is Derek. Yes, we can’t talk too specifically about the terms in the agreement, including the rates, but I guess I'll just say that we're pleased with the resolution of the dispute. As I said we believe that in this quarter the licensee has now reported sort of the full volume that they were supposed to report under their agreement. They will also we expect be reporting a catch up amount for prior period sales next quarter. That will benefit for us. And then we were able to extend the scope of the agreement to your question, to include LTE only licenses. This particular licensee was already licensed for 3G, but we've now extended that to include 4G-only, including the 3-mode devices sold on China mobiles network. So all-in-all, we feel very good about the result.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long :
Just one follow-up and another one if I could. If we could just go back to the, maybe George, the $800 million revenue reduction and $0.30 in earnings, it seems like pretty large incremental margin implied there. So maybe you can just walk us through how there is that big of an impact on that type of revenue mix? And then I loved the opinion of you guys on this Xiaomi-Ericsson deal in India, where you guys -- Xiaomi allowed to ship with your products in there. Just curious what do you think that means for the chipset business for the Chinese to export, and does it mean anything for the licensing business and potential discussions with NDRC? Thank you.
George Davis:
Hi Tim, this is George. So on the flow through issue, which is essentially seeing $0.30 off for the full year on what we’re looking at, what you’re really seeing is the fact that while we describe kind of three themes in terms of impacting the second half of the year for QCT, it’s really the themes that impact the premium tier that are driving the impact. And so the margin flow through impact on that revenue is in line with the adjustment that we’re talking about. So it’s really driven by the fact that the impact is happening at place a where we have strong operating margins.
Derek Aberle:
Tim this is Derek. Let me answer your question on Xiaomi. So I think we’ve consistently said that we believe that we’re uniquely positioned to help the Chinese OEMs build their businesses outside the China. That comes obviously both from a product perspective, in terms of our scale and ability to do that, as well as the cross license rights that we’ve obtained as we've negotiated agreements over the years and I think you're seeing some of that play out now in India. On the licensing side, I wouldn’t draw any direct correlation to the NDRC, but what I would say is we’ve talked from time to time about tools that we have at our disposal to deal with companies that are not complying with their agreements or not signing licenses, and I think you can look at what’s going on in India as just one example of the tools that are available.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley :
Just for Steve, going back to the QCT guidance, can you update us on expectations for revenue per MSM that’s implied in your guidance with the mix shift? And also just longer term, on a bigger picture view, which Qualcomm's long-term business model really has been about increasing dollar content or revenue per MSM over time. After this product cycle, some of the misses do you think this metric can return to growth in fiscal 2016? Thank you.
George Davis:
Mike, this is George. On the outlook for the year, we haven’t guided but effectively what we did say it will be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. For the full year in the second half, again pointing to the premium tier waiting of some of these issues, it will have a dampening effect but we’ll just leave it at that.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mike, this is Steve. Also in the longer term I would say I’m not sure we see a difference in terms of what the market is looking for. In fact I would suggest that even though our mix is probably more in modem versus Snapdragon based, the overall market appears to be absorbing new technology quite rapidly, even to the point where it appears that perhaps even in certain tiers, the replacement rate is improving, because people are upgrading to a larger screen and what have you. And we think that’s a good trend for our business both on a licensing side as well as the chip side eventually. I want to be clear. I think -- the 810, we think is going to be quite strong in terms of design traction, and they will be in a lot of devices. As I said, it will be over 60 devices. And it will be interesting to see how it sell through. But we’re definitely getting the sense that you still have to provide leadership technology in order to win.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line Ehud Gelblum with Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum :
A couple of questions. Can we just hit at the heart of the 810 issues, obviously been lot of news in the press about overheating and if you can just kind of hit on your -- just want to confirm, is it your opinion or thought process that the issues with that flagship device happened on a compatibility issue or incompatibility issue between the 810 and that particular device and that in any other device those issues are not a concern? If you can just give us a little detail on why that might be, to let us get a feeling as to, maybe there is nothing particularly wrong with 810 per say, but that it just happened to be a matchup with that one device, that would be helpful. George, or Derek, now that you have that licensee signed up, can you give us sense as to how large is this catch up going to be next quarter and is that in guidance, so we can kind of take that out and get a sense as to what the pure guidance for next quarter will be without that catch up. And your new numbers for the recognized volume for 2014 I believe it was, included just 20 million higher than it was before. So 195 million is the delta between the recognized and unrecognized TRDSs whereas now -- so now it's 195. Last time it was 215 million. I don’t mean to get too complicated, but is that 20 million improvement and the difference between the global TRDS and your recognized TRDS, is that all due to this one licensee. Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Ehud, this is Steve. On the 810, let me be very clear. The device is working the way that we expected it work and we have design traction that reflects that. If you look at the number of designs, it's over 60. It's essentially won all the premium designs across multiple ecosystems in China, Windows Mobile, as well as Android. So we’re quite pleased with how that is performing. There is a concern. As you mentioned it’s related to one OEM, and I don’t think you should extend that to imply that something has changed fundamentally between us and that OEM. And of course that OEM has a number of different models that we feel well positioned across our entire product tiers. So I think that’s going to be a great product for us. We are going to follow that up as I mentioned in my script with a device that returns to our internally developed CPU with integrated modem and are going at the latest node. So, I don’t think we see any change in strategy, and we’re quite pleased with that device. We just wish it had won one more design.
Derek Aberle:
Ehud, its Derek. So you might recall that when we gave prior guidance, just given the amount of issues that were on the table and the uncertainty associated with the timing of resolution of each of those, we gave quite a wide range and said to get towards the higher end of the range we needed to resolve or make progress on several of them. So in essence, the resolution of the dispute was already baked into guidance from that perspective. The catch-up payment is also effectively included within the guidance that we provided for Q2. On the math exercise, I actually figured somebody was going to ask this question. So let me try to break it down for you. Remember we gave quite a wide range of the under-reported or unreported amount, because again there is uncertainty around exactly what that would be. And everybody kind of gravitated towards using the midpoint of 215 as the talking point, although we don’t have any more confidence necessarily in the midpoint than we do on other parts of the range. And the way you get to the 215 is sort of assuming at the low end of the range there is no resolution with this particular licensee, and at the high end of the range assuming that there would be full resolution. So the midpoint is actually something in between. So when you actually try to deconstruct the math, it’s pretty hard to get there. But let me just basically tell you, the net-net of all this is, there is an improvement based on resolution of the dispute. So therefore less units being under-reported. But also the overall end market we believe, is going to grow at a faster pace than we did during the last time we provided guidance. And so even though the percentage of units that we believe will be unreported is basically staying in line with our prior expectation, the actual number of units would have gone up, but for the resolution. So the net-net of this is it comes down, but it doesn’t necessarily -- can’t attribute the delta exactly to the amount that’s resolved from the dispute.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri:
Derek, just on that point about the increase in the TAM for 2014 and then also 2015, can you talk about what regions that that’s coming from and maybe what portion of that is China? And then as a follow up for George, just on capital return, the stock is down now sort of into the mid-60s here post market. You bought back $500 million during January, which is sort of the same run rate that you bought back during the entirety of calendar Q4. Yet it doesn’t even really scratch the surface on really what you could do. Is the thinking around more capital return just China and getting that resolved?
Derek Aberle:
Tim, its Derek. So I think on your first question, really the growth in the market is primarily coming from a stronger view on emerging regions, which includes China, but it’s not entirely China. So other regions such as India, Middle East and Africa and some others are contributing to that as well.
George Davis:
Tim, on capital return, obviously we increased our program in this area substantially starting last year. And this quarter we talked about returning over 112%, our minimum commitment being 75% return of capital. So we’re pleased to be increasing in this environment. But we’ll continue to focus on shareholder returns but we’re again not going to forecast our future repurchases other than we’re committed to the return of capital commitments that we made in our program announcement last year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon:
I have two. First, I want to take a little bit of exception to the -- your point that the unit TAM is going up. It looks like the unit TAM is going up, but for the global market. But your global ASPs, you guided them down quite a bit. They were down 9 to 10, now they’re down 12 to 13. It doesn’t look like you took your estimate for the global market value up that all. So all of these units are coming in, but they’re coming in at lower ASP and there is no revenue growth upside versus where you were modeling before. So how should we be thinking about I guess the impact of elasticity here in units and growth and how do we think about the market growth going forward? Secondly, I’d love to get some feeling. I know you’re enabling -- doing your best to enable the China OEMs to grow outside of China. And maybe you don’t have any choice. So I'm just wondering is that a good thing to do? Maybe get back to the first one, what does it mean for the long term business as the China OEMs gain share outside of China and start to take share in potentially developed markets with ASPs that are probably quite a bit lower than what you’re enjoying there today.
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, its Derek. On the market growth, effectively when we think back to the discussion we had in New York, really what we said is about 6% to 9% global TRDS growth, and we had a view on what ASPs would do throughout the calendar year. But we also made the point that in 2014 and ’15, we really view this fundamentally as an elasticity of demand exercise, and as ASPs come down, that units would go up. So even if there was an increasing pressure or decline on the ASP in the next year or so, that would drive higher units and essentially that’s what we're seeing. So those two dynamics are playing out. The growth in the market overall from a TRDS perspective is in line with what we expected in New York earlier in the year, but it’s just a little different mix in terms of units versus ASP. And you might recall we did talk about a number of factors, which we think long-term cause the ASP declines to moderate. And I think that also applies to your comment on the Chinese OEMs. I think a couple of things we expect will happen over time. One is that there is going to be consolidation among the Chinese OEM base. There's just really too many players to sustain themselves long-term. And if that happens, as well as they become more successful outside of China, invest in building their brand, invest more in R&D, that there is no reason that their pricing profile would not become more in line with what we're seeing from some of the other OEMs today. And actually we commented on that today in the scripts, that we actually are starting to see Chinese OEM ASPs increase.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Stacy, its Steve. I think also you should think about the Chinese OEMs really as being multiple tiers. We see a grouping that in many ways is filling in some of the gaps that are being left because some handset manufacturers that historically have been in the United States and Northern Europe or even in Japan have exited portions of the world, and they've been filled in largely by some of the higher tier Chinese OEMs and they have strong ambitions and they're really developing the assets to be able to do that. In addition there is a lower tier product which I think is being used really to drive the migration from 2G to 3G/4G and both of those trends we think are good for our business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt:
Steve two for you. Just to clarify on your answer to Ehud’s question on the large OEM, is that a product line that you'll be selling a thin modem into or no chipset at all? And then secondly you mentioned or I guess hinted at a modem transition in China later this year. I suspect that’s carrier aggression. Do you have any sense of your lead against your major competitor there on getting a carrier aggression chip in that market. Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
It's Steve. I'll try to stay away from talking a lot about the different design dynamics in a particular OEM, in part because I'm not sure it’s even been determined yet as to how that’s going to settle out, and also it's just part of our -- we just don’t talk about those things. But we did think it was important to disclose how it impacted our financials with respect to the 810. On carrier aggression, and I would say LTE feature set broadly, which is quite diverse as you probably recall from our trip in November to New York, we feel like we're in a very strong position, not just in terms of future leadership at the high tier, but we have moved carrier aggression down in through the tiers. And similar to what we did with the transition to 4G where we made a transition to make sure that we were there for that move in China, we think there will be feature updates happening in China. We also believe that long-term you need to offer international markets to the Chinese OEMs because of the answer to the previous question. And therefore you trip on the requirement to add new bands, to support things like VoLTE and SRVCC, things that really stress the modem feature set. So we feel like we have a strong lead there. We are starting to see 3-mode competition come in, but we don’t believe that to be enough of the feature set to really cause us to change our view of the strategic environment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha :
My first question for Steve which is the, with this transition of the major OEM, I guess I know you got a lot of 810 design wins. That's reassuring. The issue being at the high-end of the market, what has become very clear in the last three years or four years is its two vendors. One of them doesn’t use your Snapdragon, which is the one seems to be deemphasizing it frankly. And so the issue here being is that, if that condition prevails, you're making a better market share in the high-end which has proved very hard to track if there is somehow [ph] change. And what confidence do you have that therefore that the 810 will drive an improving mix at some point towards three quarters? I'm just trying to understand the dynamic of whether confidence coming from it could be a good product for you in the QCT business, really? And then for Derek, my question is on the resolution you've had of this one licensee in China. The lower-end of your TDRS range has gone up by only $5 billion. And so high-end hasn’t going up. You probably anticipate it maybe coming through. What I'm trying to get is -- has the outlook for the licensing opportunity in 2015 echo this resolution [indiscernible] ForEx or ASPs or mix and that kind of thing? Is that the right way of thinking about it ex this resolution.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Kulbinder, its Steve. So in terms of the long-term, I think our view is that it probably won’t consolidate to just two OEMs. And in fact I think it would be broader than just two ecosystems will be successful in the mobile computing area. And I think even in the near term if you were to look at a market or a region such as China and you would look at how the share has changed around over time, you’ve seen a number of different OEMs who have really taken share at the premium tier. They tend not to be household names in the U.S. or in the developed world yet, but we think there is an opportunity for that to occur. In addition I don’t think you’ve seen things -- we haven’t seen things settle out in terms of how the different ecosystems will play over a multiyear period. And I think if you look at the views that we have had over the years in terms of which OEM was going to win, we’ve been very, very hesitant to make a particular bet or a strategy based off of that, and just to shift chairs between what’s happened in either Nokia or RIM or what you have over the years have really I think reinforced that to be the right place. What we tend to do is drive technology. We tend to have an interest in technology and make sure that that’s a key thing. Now we are very, very aware that as the market opportunity narrows because of a particular thin modem going better versus the CAP, we have to watch that in terms of how we spend our investment and we’re trying to do that judiciously.
Derek Aberle:
Kulbinder, this is Derek. On the second question, really if you look at, like you said, we kept the high end of the reported TRDS range the same, but brought up the bottom into the range by about $5 billion which would actually shift the midpoint up. And there is a bunch of puts and takes in that. Obviously the resolution of the dispute would push it up but there's also some offsetting factors with FX, ASP and unit. So you can necessarily triangulate the 5 billion just to the licensee dispute, but the net-net of that is actually probably a more positive not negative picture and I would say kind of incrementally we’re feeling more positive about the outlook for the business in the fiscal year than in November even.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani :
I have questions about your cash position, U.S. cash position. It declined year-over-year substantially from $8.7 billion to $4.1 billion if my numbers are right. And that means that you will run out of domestic cash in the next nine months or so if you burn the amount of cash. So it also declined substantially sequentially. What are the puts and takes in the cash burn? Is there anything else outside of dividends and buybacks that we need to consider? Then the second question is assuming you’re going to have access to more capital, whether it’s through debt raising or repatriation even, whatever it is, what are going to be the uses of cash? Are you going to increase the dividend substantially or do you have any agenda on the right dividends if you have more access to capital. Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
So consistent with what we’ve said, the step up and our return of capital is going to drive down our domestic cash balance and that’s really what you've seen. We indicated either on the last call or at the Analyst Meeting, I believe it was on the last call, we would actually be in the market raising debt in our second fiscal quarter, which we still believe we will do, and again really to try and maintain a cash balance in the $2 billion to $4 billion range at all times domestically for flexibility. But as you’ve seen, in ‘14 we returned capital ahead of our minimum commitment of 75%, closer to 100% and we’re ahead of that in the first quarter, having returned 112%. So it’s really returning capital more aggressively in the former share repurchase, plus the last two dividend increases where 40% and 20%. So significant increase in our divided outlays as well, all part of our program that we talked about last year and are executing to.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Rod Hall :
Thanks for taking my question. I guess you talked a lot about the Snapdragon and what’s going on there and the redesign of the -- using your core and so on. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the second half of the year and the trajectory of the baseband business, the thin modem business. Do you think that you expect to maintain share in the second half of the year? Do you think that share starts to slip a little bit as new competitors come on? Can you just walk us through kind of how you see share progressing on that through the year. And then I wanted to return back to this market growth question. Our model is now predicting a further deceleration of unit volume in 2016. So looking out another year. And I’m just wondering, do you think that ASP declines like you’re expecting this year continue on into that year? Are we looking at a year with even slower growth on the total market value? I know that’s a long ways out but I’d be curious to know what you’re thinking there on ASPs.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Rod, this is Steve. So on share, I think what you're really seeing is a change in mix versus a fundamental share picture in QCT. You tend to see more thin modems versus Snapdragon processors. And as everybody is working through changing their portfolio to respond I think to a very strong player in the premium tier that’s changed the mix of products. And then in addition I would say in China, we’re going to see share gains year-over-year but not as much as we had expected. It’s pretty competitive in terms of the environment there. But it’s really more a mix story versus a share story.
Derek Aberle:
Rod, this is Derek. Let me just kind of go back. I’ll try to recap some of the stuff we talked about in New York. We really gave a view on ASPs for ’14 and ’15 and then talked about -- we think that they’re going to stabilize or moderate more longer term. And so we haven’t given guidance all the way out into ’16. But if you kind of think back to some of the drivers that we still see as playing out over the longer term, right now we think a lot of this is coming from an accelerated growth of emerging region volume, which we think will -- the relative growth versus developed will moderate over time. We also think there's going to be a replacement cycle over time in the developing regions. And then we gave a number of statistics I think back in New York around increases and affordability and the amount of disposable income that people are willing to spend on their mobile device. And in fact there was just a Boston consulting group report that was released last week in Davos that really underscored that. I think in India it was about 45% of disposable income. It’s what people would spend on their mobile device. China was around that same range, maybe a little lower. So we see a longer term picture where affordability and then people trading up as they move into the smartphone tiers will help actually stabilize or even increase selling prices in emerging regions. And then as we talked about on the -- with the Chinese OEMs, one of the things that’s going on right now is basically share shift between non-Chinese players to Chinese OEMs in China and other regions. And today that’s coming at a lower ASP, although we think over the long term that that will stabilize as well as there is consolidation and these companies get a stronger position in the market.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Amit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead with your question.
Amit Shah:
Derek, you may have read that Apple and Ericsson are in a licensing dispute, with Apple saying that among other things that the royalty should be -- the rate should be based on the price of the baseband chip. And that sort of added to concerns that we may have this spillover effect from China and into other regions. I was hoping you could talk about that. And if you could just update us on when there might be some major contract renewals?
Derek Aberle:
Why don’t I take the first -- I'll try very hard not to comment specifically on the litigation between Apple and Ericsson, given that they’re both partners and customers. But let me just kind of take it up a level and talk about the baseband chip licensing. There have been I would say efforts or arguments made for a number of years, both in patent litigation as well as standards bodies that the appropriate royalty base should be the chip instead of the full device. Those have actually never succeeded anywhere where the argument has been made. And even the damage as well in the U.S. is not consistent with that when you think about portfolio based licensing. So we’ll have to watch this and see where it goes. But certainly the norm in our industry has been very much in line with the way that we have licensed historically and we think there's a lot of good reasons that support that long term. Also I don’t want to comment too specifically on China. There have been obviously a lot of rumors and things in the press. But you even look at the Chinese OEMs that have disclosed how they might license their IP portfolios and they talk about licensing at the handset level, not the chip level, and some of the decisions that have come out of China, and the legal system has been consistent with that as well. So there certainly will be arguments made over the years because there's a lot of incentives to make those arguments, but at least as the law stands today, I think we’re pretty comfortable with the way that we've structured our program.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Sue:
In the early stages of the smartphone market, it was really about getting your phones out to market, velocity [ph] of market, getting it out there. And so that favored the integrated solutions. Now with this concentrated market share and the increased choice of components, local competition in China and as the market further matures, is this part of a broader trend to kind of unbundle and disintegrate components in flagship devices? How we should be thinking about it over the longer term?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Mark this is Steve. So I’d say when we look at the accounts and we look at the competitive situation, I would really not make that conclusion. Most of -- in fact without question every competitive solution is trying to get to an integrated space. Part of that is in order to compete in the marketplace, you have to fit within an area and a cost target that without integration very, very difficult to do. It’s really only one OEM that doesn’t do that and does that well. And they tend to play at a very high tier which gives you little bit more freedom not to do that. But the vast majority of units worldwide don’t have that luxury. And so we tend to see everybody trying to produce integrated solutions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete. Please go ahead with your question.
Brett Simpson :
Just on QCT, the high-end, the situation with the 810 share loss, is this really focused on one launched device with this OEM or will it something that you see impacting other flagship launch devices with this OEM throughout the year? And just as a follow-up on QCT, I wanted to square this relationship you have with Samsung LSI. So, on hand you are competing with Samsung LSI’s Exynos chip and on the other you are partnering with Samsung LSI on the foundry side for FinFET. So can you help us make sense of this and how this isn’t a dangerous position for Qualcomm? Why are you so confident this is good for the Company?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure Brett on your first about the 810 and in a particular account, I would think of it as isolated really to one account and one portion of their portfolio. I can’t really talk about what would happen in the future. It’s really a better question for them versus us. Broadly in the industry I think we're quite pleased with the design traction and we just would love to see them take more share versus some other folks in the -- see premium tier growing more would be great for that product, I think this is really the key. In terms of the relationship with Samsung LSI and Samsung in general, it really hasn’t changed. We've had a long standing relationship with Samsung across different things, whether it’s the licensing or our product business or the foundry or even our collaboration across mobile and different devices. We have a very broad relationship. I wouldn’t think that there is a change in that and it’s not a new relationship as well. As I've mentioned number of times, the fact that Samsung now has a leading node tends to be something that’s good for the Qualcomm business. It allows us to compete with other competitors in the marketplace. So we have a very intricate, but I think a good relationship with Samsung.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you everyone. Brent, please wrap-up the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - EVP and CFO Christiano Amon - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies Murthy Renduchintala - EVP, Qualcomm Technologies Don Rosenberg - EVP, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Blayne Curtis - Barclays Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Tal Liani - Bank of America Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company
Operator:
Welcome to the Qualcomm third quarter fiscal 2014 conference call. [Operator instructions.] I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Murthy Renduchintala, and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast is accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our web site at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, we use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I'd also like to direct you to our 10-K and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our website. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future business or results of the company. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contains important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. I would also like to remind you that our New York analyst day will be held on Wednesday, November 19. To attend in person, you must be a financial analyst or institutional investor. The analyst meeting will be webcast for those of you unable to attend in person. Consistent with past analyst days, we will be providing guidance disclosures at that time, which are in addition to those provided in our earnings release and on this call. And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon everyone. I am pleased with Qualcomm’s performance this past fiscal year. Despite challenges in the licensing business, we delivered record revenues of $26.5 billion and record non-GAAP earnings per share, up 17% versus last year. Total reported device sales and MSM chipset shipments also set records, as our multimode 3G LTE and related technologies continue to enable the global growth of wireless data and our broad range of semiconductor solutions continue to be used in leading devices across all price tiers globally. We increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year and returned approximately $7.1 billion to stockholders in the form of buybacks and cash dividends. Looking at the fourth fiscal quarter, we shipped a record number of MSMs, driven by broad-based demand for our 3G and multimode 3G/4G chipsets, particularly in emerging regions. We continue to benefit from our tiered roadmap and diversified customer base as MSM chip shipments were up 24% year over year. QTL was in line with expectations, as we continue to work through the issues facing the licensing business. Eric will discuss this more fully and update you on the ongoing NDRC investigation. We made significant progress against our strategic and operational objectives this year. First, we set out to compete effectively across all tiers in LTE while driving the modem and AP roadmap to maintain our competitive lead. We are very pleased with our design activity in the premium tier, including the leading flagship devices. The Snapdragon 805 is the first processor to offer system-level ultra HD support and 4K video capture and playback. In addition, our fourth generation modem, the Gobi 9x35, featuring CAT6 carrier aggregation, is now shipping. Further, we introduced our new lower-cost architecture that debuted in the Snapdragon 410, which is now shipping in volume, and we recently announced the Snapdragon 210 processor, which will offer integrated multimode 3G/4G LTE and LTE dual sim for entry-level smartphones. This effectively brings multimode LTE with carrier aggregation across all tiers of the roadmap. Second, we continue to focus our investments on adjacent opportunities that adopt our core technologies as well as technologies that address the 1000x data challenge and drive IOE adoption. Notable milestones this past year include the extension of our wifi solutions with a comprehensive set of products that use multiuser MIMO to make 802.11 AC networks up to 3x faster and more efficient. Our overall wifi handset related revenues grew more than 40% in fiscal 2014. We acquired Wilocity, a leader in the development of 60 GHz chipsets based on the IEEE 802.11 AD standard, which provides us with a technology to address high bandwidth use cases. We announced our second generation RF360 products and now have over 225 devices launched or in design that incorporate one or more of our RF3560 components. On the automotive front, we have very strong design traction with our LTE solutions, and have announced our automotive grade infotainment chipset, and we are now engaged with over 15 OEMs on 40 different programs. We completed the sale of our Omnitracs business and restructured our Mirasol business. And finally, we recently announced our offer to acquire CSR, which would complement our current offerings by adding products, channels, and customers in the important growth categories of IOE and automotive infotainment. Third, we achieved our operating expense targets while continuing to invest in our leading roadmap and our long term supply chain initiatives. We believe that we are operating at scale and have exited fiscal year 2014 at a lower level of R&D and SG&A spending than last year. And finally, we committed to significantly increase our return of capital to stockholders and finish the year well ahead of our target of returning 75% of free cash flow to stockholders. Separately, as we note in the 10-K, two competition agencies have recently commenced investigations related to our licensing and/or our chipset businesses. We are fully cooperating with these agencies and believe our practices comply with the laws of our countries, but given that these matters are in their early stages, it is difficult to predict what, if anything, will come of them. Looking ahead, we have clear strategic priorities for fiscal 2015
Derek Aberle :
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. I would first like to provide an update on our view of global 3G/4G device demand for the remainder of calendar 2014 and 2015. As a reminder, global 3G/4G devices include not only those devices reported to us, but also our estimates of unreported and unlicensed device sales, but excludes TD-SCDMA devices that do not implement LTE. Prior to calendar 2014, we believed that our estimates of global 3G/4G devices and reported 3G/4G devices were not materially different. Last quarter, however, we introduced the separate global and reported naming conventions in light of the challenges we are experiencing in China. We think it is important and helpful to discuss both global and reported 3G/4G device estimates so that we can separately explain our views on our overall demand trends versus the portion of that demand that we expect will be reported to us during the applicable periods. We believe that global demand for 3G/4G devices continues to grow at a very healthy pace, particularly in the emerging regions at mid and low price tiers. The broad availability of compelling devices at these price tiers is driving demand for, and the migration to, 3G/4G devices. Although we are not increasing our calendar 2014 global 3G/4G device shipment estimate at this time, we now have a positive bias to our prior estimate of approximately 1.3 billion units, up approximately 20% year over year. As we explained last quarter, several factors primarily related to challenges in China are creating a divergence between our estimates of the global 3G/4G device that I just explained, and what is being, and what we expect to be, reported to us in the near term. We estimate that approximately 258 million 3G/4G devices were reported to us during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014. For calendar year 2014, we continue to estimate reported 3G/4G devices will be in the range of 1.04 billion to 1.13 billion units, which is approximately 215 million units below the global 3G/4G device estimate of approximately 1.3 billion units at the midpoint. This is in line with our prior expectations. Look forward to calendar year 2015, we estimate global 3G/4G device shipments to be approximately 1.5 billion units, up approximately 15% year over year. Turning to 3G/4G device ASPs, the ASP of devices reported to QTL during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014 was $223 at the midpoint and $225 at the midpoint for the full fiscal 2014. We estimate that the reported ASP for fiscal 2014 was approximately 6% higher than it would have been if the full global 3G/4G device demand had been reported to us during fiscal 2014, given that the ASP of the unreported units is estimated to be below the reported ASP. We forecast that the global 3G/4G ASP will further decline by approximately 9% to 10% in fiscal 2015. Although we forecasted a modest year over year decline in the global 3G/4G device ASP at the outset of fiscal 2014, the global 3G/4G device ASP decreased more than we expected in fiscal 2014, driven by accelerated migration from GSM and TD-SCDMA devices to low and midpriced 3G/4G smartphones in emerging regions. As price elasticity drives strong unit growth at lower tiers, we believe the total dollar amount of global 3G device sales grew by approximately 10% in fiscal 2014, despite the approximate 6% ASP decline at the midpoint, and we forecast approximately 7% to 8% year over year growth of such sales again in fiscal 2015. Beyond fiscal 2015, we expect further declines in the 3G/4G global ASP to moderate as the weighted impact of the factors that are driving the near term declines in ASP ease, and users in emerging regions trade up as they replace their low tier devices. We will provide more detail on these trends during our upcoming analyst day in New York. I would now like to provide an update on the four issues impacting our licensing business in China that we discussed last quarter. We are still in discussions with the licensee regarding a dispute that has resulted in a portion of that licensee’s device shipments being excluded from our results. Like other disputes we have had in the past, we expect to resolve this situation in due course and have been making progress toward that end. We now have signed more than 75 single mode LTE licenses with Chinese OEMs. Having said that, OEMs supplying a meaningful percentage of three-mode devices remain unlicensed. We remain in discussions with many of these OEMs, but the negotiations are being delayed, at least in part by the pending NDRC investigation. We also believe the volume of three-mode devices that will ship during calendar 2014 has increased from our prior expectations. Despite these near term challenges, we do expect to collect royalties over time on substantially all LTE device shipments, including three-mode devices sold in China. We continue to believe that some of our licensees are not reporting all of their license shipments. We are engaged in conducting audits of these licensees and attempting to identify and resolve instances of underreporting. Of course, if these efforts are unsuccessful, we are fully prepared to enforce our rights under our license agreement. We have also seen an increase in sales of lower tier 3G connected tablets by a number of Chinese OEMs, and we expect sales of these devices to continue to grow. This is a good trend from a market growth perspective, but we still need to conclude license agreements with many of these tablet suppliers in order for QTL to participate in that growth. We are continuing to pursue licenses with this new base of potential licensees, but those discussions will take some time to complete, and the timing may be impacted to some extent by the pending NDRC investigation. As to the status of the NDRC investigation, we continue to meet with, and are fully cooperating with, the NDRC as it conducts its investigation and have discussed with the NDRC a number of proposals for addressing its concerns. But the timing and outcome of any resolution remains uncertain, as does the potential impact of our future business in China. We also believe that the timing of the resolution of some of our other challenges in China will be impacted by the timing of the conclusion of the investigation. Bringing this matter to closure remains a top priority for the management team. Given the difficulty in predicting the timing and impact of resolving our China challenges, our QTL outlook for fiscal 2015 incorporates a wide range of potential outcomes. The low end of our guidance reflects the status quo [unintelligible], relative to the four China issues I just covered, in other words, no material resolution or change to these items, and the high end of the range reflects more favorable outcomes with respect to several of the items. Due to the uncertain timing and range of potential outcomes, the potential for higher than normal quarterly variation in our results is possible. We have widened our guidance ranges as a result. Finally, again it is important to remember that our forecast for reported TRDS units and ASPs reflect only that [unintelligible] 3G/4G device demand that we currently expect will be reported to us, and will therefore vary from the global 3G/4G device metrics we have described. Although QTL revenue growth may be muted to some extent, as we work to resolve the current challenges in China and global device ASPs are expected to decline during fiscal 2015 at a faster pace than in recent years, we still expect reasonable growth in global 3G/4G device sales driven by very strong unit growth. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to our chief financial officer, George Davis.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. I will begin by covering our fiscal fourth quarter results, followed by a summary of fiscal year 2014 before discussing our outlook. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we delivered revenues of $6.7 billion, up 3% year over year, and non-GAAP operating income was $2.3 billion, up 20% year over year. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 20% year over year to $1.26. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licensees were $57.4 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range. QTL’s reported ASP was $223 at the midpoint, and down $8 quarter over quarter. QCT had record MSM shipments in the quarter, as forecasted, although the demand related to mid-tier chipsets was somewhat below our expectations. Implied revenue per MSM was down sequentially, reflecting an increased mix of thin modem chipsets in the premium tier. QCT operating margin was 22%, achieving our target to exit fiscal 2014 above 20%. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were 5% lower sequentially, better than expected due to spending discipline across all businesses. During the fiscal fourth quarter, we returned $1.9 billion to stockholders, including approximately $700 million of dividends paid and $1.2 billion in stock repurchases. As of the end of fiscal 2014, we had approximately $5.3 billion remaining on our stock repurchase authorization. Cash flow from operations was $1.6 billion and 24% of revenues, and we ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $32 billion. Turning to our results for fiscal 2014, revenues were up 7% from last year, reflecting stronger than expected QCT shipments, partially offset by the impact of QTL’s challenges in China. As a reminder, we sold our Omnitracs division in the first fiscal quarter and the impact of the absence of this business was just over 1 percentage point on our growth rate on the year over year comparison. Non-GAAP operating income was $8.9 billion, up 3% year over year, led by strong performance in QCT, partially offset by certain impairments and higher spend in our emerging businesses, reported in other. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $5.27, up 17% year over year, led by QCT performance, along with the benefit of gains on rebalancing of our treasury portfolio and the positive net impacts of the gain on the sale of Omnitracs and the ParkerVision reversal, partially offset by the writedown of [QMT] assets. QTL’s fiscal 2014 revenues were flat year over year, as challenges in China offset strong global 3G/4G device growth, and QTL’s operating margin was 87% of revenue. QCT’s fiscal 2014 revenues were up 12% year over year, and QCT’s earnings before tax were up 19% year over year. Operating margin was 20%, and at the high end of our full year guidance range, overall, a very strong year for our QCT team, where product leadership across all tiers led the stronger than expected top and bottom line growth in an environment where we saw increasing margin compression, particularly in the mid and low tiers. In fiscal 2014, we generated $8.9 billion in cash flow from operations, or 34% of revenues. We exceeded our 75% of free cash flow commitment, returning approximately $7.1 billion or 93% of free cash flow to stockholders during the fiscal year. Now turning to our guidance for fiscal 2015, we estimate total Qualcomm fiscal 2015 revenues to be in the range of approximately $26.8 billion to $28.8 billion, up 1% to 9% year over year. We expect QCT segment revenues to be in the range of $19.3 billion to $20.3 billion, up 6% year over year at the midpoint, and QTL segment revenues are expected to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8.3 billion, up 3% year over year at the midpoint. Our range for QTL is relatively wide, as it is difficult to forecast the timing and potential outcomes in China. We expect 2015 non-GAAP operating income to be in the range of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, up 7.5% year over year at the midpoint. Overall, non-GAAP operating profit is expected to grow modestly as a percent of revenue. We estimate fiscal 2015 QTL operating margin will be approximately 85% to 86%. Consistent with the guidance provided over the past year, we estimate 2015 QCT operating margins will be in the range of 18% to 20%. We expect fiscal 2015 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $5.05 to $5.35, down modestly at the midpoint versus fiscal 2014. Non-GAAP year over year EPS growth is expected to be impacted by the continuing challenges in QTL, lower QCT revenue per MSM and margin flow through, lower investment gains in our treasury portfolio, and to a lesser extent, negative foreign exchange impacts. Our estimate is that revenue per MSM will be modestly lower year over year, down 3% to 5%, as a result of continuing pricing pressure, product mix, and increasing competitive dynamics. Combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to grow approximately 3% to 5% year over year, driven by continued investments in our multitiered chip roadmap and increasing compliance and enforcement initiatives in QTL. We estimate our fiscal 2015 non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 17%, higher year over year due to business mix, the absence of the federal R&D tax credit, and other unique items in 2014. The impact from the potential CSR acquisition has been excluded from our fiscal 2015 forecast. For the first quarter of fiscal 2015, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $6.6 billion to $7.2 billion, up approximately 4% year over year at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal first quarter to be approximately $1.18 to $1.30 per share, down 2% year over year at the midpoint, as stronger chip performance is more than offset by the absence of favorable one-time items and lower licensing revenues related to China. We anticipate first fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be up 5% to 6% sequentially, reflecting increased investment in QCT’s product roadmap. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales for the quarter will be in the range of $53 billion to $59 billion, as reported by our licensees in the December quarter for shipments they made in the September quarter. QTL’s reported ASP is estimated to be sequentially lower, reflecting competitive dynamics at the premium and high tier, and an increased mix of lower-priced handsets in emerging regions. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 250 million to 270 million units during the December quarter, up approximately 22% year over year at the midpoint and 10% sequentially. We expect fiscal first quarter implied revenue per MSM to be down approximately 5% quarter over quarter and down approximately 10% year over year, reflecting a greater mix of thin modems and chipsets for lower cost smartphones. That concludes my comments. I look forward to seeing many of you at the analyst day in New York, where we’ll provide further detail supporting our financial outlook for fiscal 2015 and beyond. I’ll now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we’re ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions.] Your first question comes from the line of Tim Long of BMO Capital.
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets :
Derek, a clarification here. There’s a discussion of a prior period catch up in the numbers for QTL this year. Could you just let us know what that is? And then for the whole team here, just curious, as we enter a new fiscal year, the previous guidance of 10% top and bottom line growth looks like for guidance it will be the second year that we don’t hit that. Could you just re-address that, and maybe if you ex out China, do you think those targets are still realistic?
Derek Aberle :
I’m a little bit confused on what you’re referring to on the prior period catch up. In terms of our guidance for fiscal ’15, as George mentioned, we have a relatively wide range on the QTL guidance given just the uncertainty on what’s going on in China. And you know, I would say that sort of at the low end of that, we’re assuming probably more or less a status quo scenario on the four items that we discussed last quarter and updated you on today, and then towards the high end of the range would anticipate that we actually reach resolution at various points in the year on several of those items. And certainly, part of that could include things like catch up payments, but that’s sort of a probability adjusted set of assumptions that got us to this range.
George Davis :
:
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.
James Faucette - Morgan Stanley:
I just wanted to ask one more clarification from you, Derek. As far as resolution, getting to the high end of your range, I think you said that’s probability weighted. So if I’m understanding that correctly, that would mean that if it were in fact to happen, that you could actually exceed the high end of the range. Just a little clarification on how you’re formulating that would, I think, be helpful. And then back on QCT, maybe broader question for the team. Just wondering if the issues with the NDRC in particular, how that’s impacting the demand for chips in China, with your Chinese customers, if it’s impacting a relationship there and margins at all. And finally, just last question, can you just, a couple of comments on the new EC and FTC investigations might be useful as well.
Derek Aberle :
Just let me clarify on the range. So what I was saying is the low end of the range really basically assumes no resolution of the items that we’ve discussed. And also, things like unreported activity wouldn’t get worse. So it’s sort of what we’ve seen now, one quarter in, of reports and also the estimates on the September quarter sales. As I mentioned in my comments, we feel like we’re sort of tracking in line with kind of what we expected, meaning the underreporting isn’t getting worse. So assuming that holds, and we don’t resolve things, that would get you to the low end of the range. The high end of the range basically includes assumptions that several of the items would either be resolved or get better for us. And to be clear, the midpoint is basically sort of a probability adjusted version of several different scenarios that kind of put you in the middle.
Steven Mollenkopf :
With respect to the chipset question, I don’t think the investigation helps the situation, but I think the team has done a good job really separating the issues between the product side and the licensing side. And I would characterize the demand in China as being fairly robust. It’s probably a little bit more three mode than five mode, which is really a mix statement relative to what we would have thought a year ago. But it continues to be a significant part of the growth of the business moving forward, and we’re pleased to be participating in it.
Don Rosenberg :
With respect to the investigation, the E.U. and the FTC, basically, we’ve said in the K what we can say there, both very early stage. The E.U. relates to, as far as we can tell, the chip business and the FTC relates to, as far as we can tell, the licensing business. But important to note that these are very preliminary. They’re in the information gathering stages in both cases.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity :
Derek, just a little more clarification, what’s embedded on your guidance, on QTL, maybe on the ASP front, one, on the high end, the high tier market, with Apple in a strong product cycle, and our surveys and work show them taking share from high end Android, how much does that impact your ASP outlook? And then second, assuming a lower mix of these emerging market units for the underreporting, if that could help the ASPs. And then thirdly, if some FX headwinds that could hurt Qualcomm. So how much of those factors may be impacting your ASP outlook, or is it more just the mix that is leading to the ASP outlook?
Derek Aberle :
I would say sort of elements of all of those things are kind of embedded in our guidance. You probably noticed that unlike prior years, where we gave a fiscal year ASP range, this year we decided to just give a new metric, which is the all-in TRDS. Because given the uncertainty in the timing of some of these resolutions, and in addition to the normal market dynamics that we need to forecast, trying to give a meaningful range on the ASP was pretty difficult. For example, if we get the dispute resolved and some of these underreporting issues resolved, and that comes with it catch up units that are at lower ASPs, that’s going to have a distortive effect on the quarterly profile. So we’ll kind of take you through that as the year progresses, depending on what comes out. But yes, certainly as OEM share ships around at the high tier, that can impact the ASP as well, and we’ve got a set of assumptions in there. And we do anticipate, both from a reported and kind of a global market dynamic, that the emerging market units will be an increasing portion of the units sold in 2015 compared to 2014.
Steven Mollenkopf :
Mike, I think you asked about FX as well, and I think it will have a modest impact driven by what we’re seeing with the yen and the euro.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.
Blayne Curtis - Barclays:
Just first on QTL, the step off in the device ASPs, how much does the three-mode have to do with that, and just any expectation on the mix between five-mode and three-mode next year. And then George, just on the opex clicking up, you had said that you’re just investing in products. This is kind of a change from trying to keep it more flattish. So what’s driving that change as the top line seemingly is a little weaker.
Derek Aberle :
Yeah, so if you look at kind of what we referred to as the global ASP, if all the units have been reported to us this year, really a big part of the year over year decline is driven by growth in China, and in particular three-mode and Chinese OEMs I think gaining share over non-Chinese OEMs. So that’s a big part, coupled with strong unit growth in other emerging regions as well. I think we see similar dynamics playing out as we go from 2014 to 2015. Throughout the course of this year, the percentage of three-mode devices on China Mobile’s network compared to five-mode has really continued to shift over time to more a three-mode. And we expect that will probably continue at least into 2015 as well.
George Davis :
On opex, we are slowing the growth of opex. Last year we had forecasted 6% growth, we brought it at 5% this year. We’re forecasting 4% at the midpoint. And really what you’re seeing is continued investment in the QCT roadmap. What’s maybe having a little bit higher effect that we would expect on an ongoing run rate is we are investing more in the enforcement side for QTL, so we’ve embedded that growth year over year. But you’ll see, again, moderate growth in QCT, and in our other segment you’re seeing opex come down in that area.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank :
First, on the back to the long term growth rate, obviously the QTL, you are the market there, so single digit growth there is probably a given. But on the QCT side, you’ve got a combination of things. You obviously have lower ASP product [scrolling] number faster than higher ASP, but you’ve also got integration of functionality like wifi and RF360. So how do those two things play into the overall growth rate of QCT? Second, Steve, if you could talk about LTE competition, how you see that evolving as we move into next year. And then finally, given you have a couple of investigations going on, what are you assuming in your guidance relative to legal expense. Is it kind of the midrange, or is it high or low? Could you give some measure of that? That would be great. Thank you.
Steven Mollenkopf :
I think on the QCT model, I don’t really see anything that’s different than our long term model. We had a very strong 2014. I think we’re seeing a little bit of a mix issue now in 2015, but still consistent with our long term. Remember, we had a really strong 2014, I think is important to remember. Long term, I think all the growth vectors that we talked about that you mentioned, integration, a bunch of adjacent markets, just continual, actually even improvement of our cost structure, which we continue to focus on, contribute to that. So I think we don’t see really anything different in the QCT outlook, albeit it’s a little bit weaker market from a mix perspective here sequentially in 2015. And I think some of our opex discipline that we’ve had over the years has helped us actually maintain that. With respect to LTE competition, you know, it’s there. It’s been there for some time. We feel fairly good about our competitive positioning right now. Most of that is because I think we’re stronger across tiers. We are assuming that there’s LTE competition in the way in which we are pricing our chipsets and the way in which we’re defending our share, but you’ve seen us do that in the past. I don’t think that’s a real change in our strategy. Maybe George could talk a little bit about the legal expense.
George Davis :
Sure, on the legal side, we’re definitely increasing what we expect to spend more this year, not only for China, but for these other items that we talked about. But that’s all in the forecast.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citigroup.
Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup :
The concept of three-mode versus five-mode comes up a lot in conversation, and you mentioned it today as well. Can you just give us a sense, in both modes, you have LTE. In three-mode you have TD-LTE and five-mode you have both TD and FD LTE. For you, is there a distinction between the two? Is there any reason we should be seeing a distinction between the two? Have any vendors or any carriers or anyone been able to make a distinction between the two that you can discern? Is there a reason that the royalties you eventually get on three-mode would be different from five-mode, as a percentage, other than the fact that three-mode will most likely have a lower ASP. If we can just kind of understand. I was always under the impression that LTE was LTE was LTE, so if you can kind of clarify that a little bit, as well as this large licensee that seems to be making a distinction between a portion of its devices, but they’re not willing to pay royalties on, is that the distinction between three-mode and five-mode? And then I just want a clarification, when you said the 9% to 10% ASP, that was including China, I assume, and the 1.5 billion units. If we exclude China, what is your estimate on ASP declines for the QTL in the TRDS that we’re right now going to be looking at going forward, as opposed to hoping this thing gets resolved issue?
Derek Aberle :
The three-mode versus five-mode question, just to clarify. So three-mode, when we use that term, refers to devices that have GSM, TD-SCDMA, and TD LTE. And five-mode is both flavors of LTE as well as GSM and WCDMA. And so when you think about the five-mode devices, those are essentially covered by what we refer to as our 3G agreement. So you know, there’s no need to go out for us and sign up new agreements to cover those products. The three-mode, the reason that we’ve drawn a distinction between those is, in many cases, either companies did not take licenses for TD-SCDMA or as we’ve talked about in the past, we’ve had challenges in China collecting on TD-SCDMA. So as they roll those TD-SCDMA devices to include LTE, we believe that really puts us in the position to collect royalties on all of the formerly TD-SCDMA volume. So in many cases, that requires us to actually negotiate and sign new license agreements. And those are the agreements that you’ll hear us refer to as LTE only or single mode LTE agreements. Really, from an OEM perspective, we did have some concerns a while back about the issue of whether we’re going to have challenges collecting on LTE TDD, similar to TD-SCDMA. We’re not really seeing that to be a big issue. It’s more around just getting the agreements in place. And as I’ve talked about, we were making very good progress on that up until recently, and I think we’re experiencing some delays in those negotiations, primarily around the timing of the NDRC resolution. The dispute we have with the licensee, we really haven’t characterized that in too much detail, other than to say it is really the underreporting aspect of that is not necessarily related to a particular technology. It’s really a different kind of dispute, similar to what we’ve had in the past, where we just have companies taking position under the agreement in terms of what they have to pay. And we have to work through that. And we’ve continued to be engaged with that particular licensee, and are trying to make progress towards a resolution. On the ASP, when I referred to the 9% to 10% estimated year over year decline, that was referring to the global ASP, which is sort of the all-in number that would include China. Yes, if you extracted out China, we would expect that ASP to be higher, but as I mentioned before, we’ve decided not to provide guidance at this point on the fiscal year reported ASP. Instead, we gave you the TRDS range for fiscal 2015.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse.
Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse :
Derek, on the unit numbers, the 210 million unit shortfall, you’d previously implied that the shortfall, a significant part was just this one licensee, and the rest of it was a bunch of underreporting. My question is what other remedies are possible for the licensee that you had? Because you obviously have or had an agreement with them, and they just suddenly stopped paying. And I would have thought that that would leave us there to bring that to some sort of close quite quickly. And what I was thinking of it, these other underreporting vendors is just much more complicated. Is that the right way of thinking of it? Or is this whole thing very uncertain? Then for Steve, my question is despite the cash that you guys did pay out, you obviously ended the year with more cash than last year, and I’m not sure that you’d even agree that you need $30-odd billion cash on your balance sheet. So if you are confident of Qualcomm’s LTE position and their chip position, which it sounds like you are, isn’t this the time to step up the shareholder returns?
Derek Aberle :
Let me try to kind of step through this. Remember, we gave a range last quarter. It was relatively wide, of potential units that would not be reported to us for calendar 2014, and the midpoint of that estimate was about 215 million units. And as we explained, that was made up of four elements. One of them was the dispute that you mentioned. Another was underreporting by licensees. A third was the unlicensed three-mode activity in China, and the fourth were these white box tablets. And the white box tablets, although also meaningful, are probably the smallest out of the four, but we didn’t otherwise kind of characterize the composition of what made up the 215. So I just wanted to clarify that. The dispute that we have currently with the licensee does involve a company that has an existing license agreement. And so our typical process, when we have these types of disputes, as you probably recall from years earlier, is our first and preferred approach is to try to engage with the licensee and resolve it amicably through negotiation. And that’s the process that we’re going through right now. We’ve had a lot of success doing that in the past, but from time to time, that doesn’t work, and if that doesn’t work, then you need to take the next step, which is typically seeking to enforce your rights under the agreement, which would either be in litigation or in arbitration, and you might recall for instance the arbitration that we had with Panasonic a few years back. That resolved quite favorably for us. So I would say we’re sort of in the pre-dispute resolution procedures, meaning we’re continuing to be engaged with the licensee, and I think we’re making some progress towards a resolution, but there’s no guarantee that that will ultimately happen without the need for some other mechanism to resolve it. But those do take some time. Even when you resort to the contract remedies, that’s a period of time as well. So it’s not something you can just do overnight.
Steven Mollenkopf :
I think the way you characterized our view of the business is consistent with our view. That being said, I think we talked about last fiscal year about how we increased our capital structure commitment to return 75% of free cash flow to the shareholders. Given our split of offshore and onshore balances and kind of the future view of what might happen with tax reform, we think that’s probably the right split right now, but I’m sure that we will hear a lot about that, and also provide our own perspective of that again in New York.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Tal Liani of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Tal Liani - Bank of America :
First is on the royalties. I’m here in China this week, and I’m getting confused with the information, because there’s going to be about 70 million to 80 million 4G subscribers this year, and you’re guiding to 215 million. And the majority of these 80 million to 90 million handsets will be paying royalties, just because they’re five-mode or they’re the other technologies that are supposed to pay royalties. So the dispute seems to be going. It’s not about TD or local technology. It’s more about the Chinese not willing to pay you, period, and there is something to do with technology, but it cuts across all technologies, and it’s also for the exports, not just for the imports. So can you discuss this? What suddenly prompts this, after they paid for so many years according to the plan? And the second question is about R&D. You referred to opex before, but R&D, if I look at the last five, six quarters, R&D, the growth rate had been constantly down from 36% year over year to 11% the previous two quarters, and this quarter it’s only 1%. What is the outlook for R&D, and how do you manage to maintain the leadership with R&D only growing 1% year over year?
Derek Aberle :
Just to clear up maybe the potential confusion there, last quarter when we described this, it’s really the issue of unlicensed activity and underreporting is really one that’s unique to Chinese OEMs at this point. But it is not limited to a particular technology. So I think we were pretty clear that the three-mode was sort of a unique issue that was a combination of probably underreporting and unlicensed activity. But the underreporting itself, given the magnitude of the 215 million unit midpoint we talked about included more than just LTE. It was across 3G as well, and it wasn’t limited to even sales in China, but it would likely include sales by Chinese OEMs that would be for export outside of China to some of the other emerging regions. So I think when you go back and maybe look at your numbers in that context, hopefully things will make a little more sense. In terms of timing, really, I think you can think about this from a couple of different perspectives. One is the unlicensed activity, it’s not atypical to have a situation where product begins to ship before you can finally get agreements in place, so they come usually closer to the time of shipments. So that’s why the three-mode is a bigger issue for us right now than the five-mode or other 3G devices. But I think there’s also an element, given the uncertainty in China right now, with the pending NDRC investigation, which we’re obviously working very hard to resolve. There’s a little bit of the licensees pushing the envelope. And it’s not really a situation of companies just saying generally they’re not going to pay us, but I think that they’re sort of pushing the envelope in terms of thinking that they can get away with not reporting all of the activity that they’re undertaking. And you know, we are preparing to respond to that, and I think that’s something we’ve had to deal with in the past, and I think we’ve had a pretty good track record of resolving it. We’re probably approaching the problem a little bit differently than we have in the past, just given where we are in our current discussions on the investigation. But once that’s behind us or we get a little further down the line, I think you’ll see our stance on those types of things change.
Steven Mollenkopf :
On the R&D, I think you’re referring to the quarter numbers, which had more modest growth than we’ve seen for a couple of quarters. And some of that is just timing of certain activities within the programs, but if you look at the full year of 2014, where we had a little more front end loading, we grew R&D at about 3 points higher than the top line rate of the company. If you look back over five years, R&D as a percent of revenues is about 18%, and that’s the same level that we would expect to see in 2015.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon of Sanford Bernstein.
Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein :
You’re talking about issues with China impacting the guidance next quarter, but let’s talk about the rest of the business. You’re guiding at the low end of your TRDS. That assumes China doesn’t come back, but that also implies TRDS goes down year over year, which implies something must be going on in the rest of the business. So can you tell us about how you see the rest of the business trending ex-China? Secondly, you’re guiding your TRDS up 4.5%. You’re guiding your QTL revenues up 3%, which implies royalty rate degradation next year. What’s driving that? Thirdly, with the issues signing these China guys to three-mode licenses, I guess currently they’re not in violation of anything yet, because they don’t have agreements. So if they continue to refuse to sign, what are your options? Do you have to go into China and make the explicit decision to sue them for patent infringement?
Derek Aberle :
I think the first question was from a reported TRDS year over year. When you look at the numbers, that appears to be down. I think actually the midpoint would be up year over year, about 5%. So you should probably take a look at that one. I’m not sure I fully caught the second part of that.
Steven Mollenkopf :
Well, I think your point was that the growth rate for QTL… And I think it’s one of the reasons why we gave a range of what the top line for QTL would be. But if you just took the midpoint of that, it would be up 3%, and we’re saying TRDS up 5% on FY 2015 guidance. And again, I would say to draw a straight line between that and saying there’s a specific royalty rate issue, I think there’s so many moving pieces in the forecast right now that I wouldn’t draw quite that straight a line.
Derek Aberle :
And then I guess on the last question, about three-mode, really I think that’s the question. We have, I think 75-plus companies that have already signed agreements for three-mode in China. So obviously the way that we would ensure payment and compliance on those companies would be different than the companies that don’t yet have agreements. So I think there’s kind of a lot of factors involved in terms of if we run into problems getting companies to actually sign agreements for three-mode. And one of the potential actions would be to assert patents against them in China. There certainly are other avenues at our disposal as well, in particular, as these companies continue to grow their businesses and their aspirations outside of China as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of Cowen & Company.
Timothy Arcuri - Cowen & Company :
First of all from me, the guidance takes into account the issues in China, but can you assess the potential for the new FTC and the E.U. investigations to maybe add some risk to the low end of the guidance? And then secondly, are the new FTC and E.U. investigations fully independent from the NDRC issues? Because it seems like in some other situations that the various global agencies are sort of working together on stuff like this. So I’m wondering if one can be resolved totally separately from the other two.
Don Rosenberg :
The first question was in terms of the impact. Look, these are investigations that, as I said, are very preliminary. As you know from our experience and other experiences in the past, these take some time. As I said, these are informational at the moment. So there’s going to be a lot of interaction and discussion before this leads anywhere, frankly. So I don’t think we can predict with any degree of certainty where it’s going to go, and it’s certainly not going to be a short term kind of impact.
Derek Aberle :
I think if you look back historically, we obviously had an investigation in Europe and in Korea previously. The European investigation went on for four years and ultimately resulted in no findings or actual complaints against us. Korea, that was a multiyear process as well. I think in our experiences, it’s not uncommon that if there’s a high profile investigation by one competition agency, that potentially others might become interested and ask for information, but the regulatory regimes and the legal processes in each country are quite different, and in particular quite different than China.
Warren Kneeshaw:
I see we’ve run out of time. We look forward to picking up this conversation at the analyst day in a couple of weeks.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - CEO Derek Aberle - President George Davis - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup James Faucette - Morgan Stanley Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein Romit Shah - Nomura Timothy Arcuri - Cowen and Company Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets Rod Hall - JP Morgan Anil Doradla - William Blair
Operator:
Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2014 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 23, 2014. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers, please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 63935250. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle, and George Davis. Steve is joining us from Beijing, where he is attending the U.S.-China CEO dialog, co-convened by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the China Center for Economic Exchanges. Murthy Renduchintala and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast is accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our web site at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, if we use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I'd also like to direct you to our 10-Q and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our web site. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or company results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-Q, which contains important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. And now, I would like to introduce Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to report another very strong quarter, with record revenues and earnings per share, driven by broad-based demand for our 3G and multimode 3G/4G chipsets. In QCT, we shipped a record 225 million MSM chipsets, well ahead of expectations, driven primarily by strength in emerging regions. We continue to benefit from our tiered roadmap and diversified customer base, as revenues in MSM chip shipments were up 17% and 31% year-over-year respectively. Total 3G/4G device demand in the March quarter, was stronger than our expectations. However, QTL total reported device sales and revenues were down from our prior guidance expectations, as a result of a dispute with the licensee. Under reporting by certain licensees, in China, and sales of certain unlicensed devices in China. Derek will discuss this more fully, including the actions we are taking to address this situation. We will also give a brief update on the ongoing NDRC investigation. We began the year with several key objectives; first, we set out to compete effectively across all tiers in the LTE rollout in China, while driving the modem and AP roadmap to maintain our competitive lead. Second, we have developed plans to focus our investments on adjacent opportunities, that adopt our core technologies, as well as technologies that address the 1000X data challenge, and drive IOE adoption. Third, we set challenging OpEx targets to achieve greater operating leverage from our scale, and finally, we committed to materially increase our return of capital. As I will explain further, I am very pleased with our results to date on all of these elements. I will begin with the operational front, where we are executing against our initiatives to drive productivity. We remain committed to exiting our fiscal year at an overall operating expense run rate lower than our exit from last year. Our team is executing to this, while making critical investments in our roadmap and supply chain initiatives. We also continue to make progress on our efforts to focus our new business initiatives across the company. As part of that effort, we are accelerating our transition from the current generation Mirasol display technology to the licensing of the next generation, with a focus on wearable devices. However, we will continue to make and sell the current generation Mirasol displays, to support certain existing customer requirements. As a result of this new plan, we expect a significantly lower spend in our QMT division in fiscal 2015, providing an expected annualized savings of more than $125 million. The actions related to these changes resulted in an impairment to the QMT business this quarter, which George will cover in more detail. Adding to our portfolio of important technologies, we recently completed a few noteworthy acquisitions. First, we acquired Velocity, a leader in the development of 60-GHZ chipsets based on the IEEE, 802.11ad standard, also known as WiGig. We have been working closely with this team for many years, and see this technology as important to the new high bandwidth used cases we expect. The Black Sand acquisition supplements our RF team, and expands our RF 360 roadmap. And finally, we acquired leading digital still camera technology from CSR, which further enhances our differentiation in the important area of image processing. On the product front, the first device based on our Snapdragon 805 and fourth generation multimode 3G/4G modem was launched. The Samsung Galaxy S5 broadband LTE-A. The Snapdragon 805 processor is the first mobile processor to offer system level Ultra HD support, 4K video capture and playback and when coupled with our industry-leading Gobi modems, enables users to stream and watch 4K content over LTE. The fourth generation Qualcomm Gobi 9x35, is the first 3G LTE modem to commercially ship in smartphones, that's the port's global carrier aggregation deployment, up to 40-MHZ with both LTE TDD and FDD Category 6. QCT has seen very strong design traction across its peers, with the emerging China customers. It is worth nothing that our success to-date in China is based on chipsets that were launched last year, and we are on track this quarter to commercialize our new low cost architecture with our Snapdragon 410. We believe the launch of the Snapdragon 410 and our follow-on LTE chipsets, raised the competitive benchmark and improve product costs. With our Wi-Fi and RF360 solutions, we continue to pursue growing our share of content in devices. Both product lines continue to ramp, with our overall Wi-Fi unit volumes on track to grow more than 40% this fiscal year, as our attach rate in mobile continues to grow significantly. We now have over 100 devices launched or in design incorporating RF360, including the first launch of the device to feature the Envelope tracker, antenna tuner and power amplifier. Looking forward, the continued roll-out and growth of multimode 3G LTE has a significant opportunity for the company. According to the GSA, 300 operators have deployed LTE and more than 200 more have committed to deploy LTE. In addition, over 55 operators have or are planning to deploy LTE Advanced services, including carrier aggregation. We are now positioned to help enable this opportunity with our LTE Leadership position, including chipsets across multiple product tiers, and we expect to launch the Snapdragon 810, the world's first premium tier integrated SoC with Category 6 for smartphones, later this calendar year. To-date, over 2,000 multimode 3G LTE devices have now either been launched or are in design, based on our chipset solutions. The LTE feature set continues to evolve, with features such as LTE Broadcast and LTE Direct. LTE Broadcast has been commercialized in Korea, and has been demonstrated in the U.S., Europe and Australia. We have also announced an LTE Direct trial in Germany, in collaboration with Deutsche Telekom. Although still early in the adoption cycle, opportunities in the automotive, healthcare and wearable segments are taking shape. Our automobile pipeline continues to add OEMs and design wins. Our leadership in LTE is an advantage in this segment, as it moves from 3G to multimode LTE and this quarter, we saw General Motors launch OnStar LTE. In addition, new Android Wear devices were recently announced and Snapdragon 400 is enabling devices offered by Samsung and LG. Adjacent opportunities allow us to build off our core investments into new growth segments. We expect to see an increasing impact of this over time. In closing, we are making substantial progress on the key objectives we set for the company. We delivered a record quarter, and see significant opportunities ahead. Our portfolio of multimode 3G LTE chipsets has strong design traction, which positions us well, and we are working hard to address the near term challenges in our licensing business. That concludes my remarks, and I will now turn the call over to Qualcomm's President, Derek Aberle.
Derek Aberle:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. We continue to see healthy end user device demand, spurred by among other things, the transition to 3G LTE in China. In fact, we now believe 3G/4G device demand, excluding TD-SCDMA GSM devices for calendar 2014, will be at the high end of the 1.22 billion to 1.3 billion device range that we provided last quarter, reflecting strength in both developed and emerging regions. Turning to China, China Mobile has launched LTE service in over 300 cities, with over 300 LTE device models, and has seen increased data usage in ARPU from its LTE subscribers. In addition, LTE FDD trial licenses have been granted to both China Unicom and China Telecom. Both operators are launching hybrid LTE TDD and FDD trial networks in 16 cities. We expect those trials to expand to additional cities throughout the year. We are working closely with the operators to help them optimize their networks, and our chipset solutions, which support both the TDD and FDD modes of LTE, provide the mode, band and hand-off combinations they require for their 3G and LTE networks. As Steve mentioned, we continue to have strong LTE chipset design momentum with manufacturers in China, and we are seeing significant demand for our multimode 3G LTE chipsets. Here in the U.S., we have also seen positive trends as a result of competition amongst the carriers. In addition, promotions tied into the World Cup have shown success in Latin America, and we have seen positive 2G to 3G migration trends in Southeast Asia as well. Despite this healthy 3G/4G device demand environment, we have reduced our financial outlook for QTL for this fiscal year, to reflect some challenges in China, that could prevent us from collecting royalties in the near term on the full 3G/4G device demand. First, we have a dispute with the licensee that has resulted in a portion of that licensee shipment activity being excluded from our fiscal third quarter results and fiscal fourth quarter outlook. Like other disputes we have had in the past, we expect to resolve this situation and are in active discussions with this licensee. However, the timing of a potential resolution is uncertain. Second, as we have previously said, the timing of the LTE launches in China, as well as device composition at China Mobile, has been a bit difficult to forecast. Although, we have signed more than 70 single mode LTE license with Chinese OEMs, we still need to sign agreements with a number of other Chinese OEMs, in order to be able to collect royalties on all three mode devices in China. Given the time it will take to complete the remaining single mode LTE licenses in China, we expect to experience a delay in the timing of our collection of royalties on these devices. Third, we recently have seen an increase in sales of lower tier 3G connected tablets by a number of Chinese OEMs, and we expect sales of these devices to continue to grow. This is a positive sign for 3G/4G attach rates and tablets, but the tablet OEMs are largely not the same companies that have been supplying the handsets in China, and therefore in most cases, are not currently licensed. We are in the process of negotiating licenses with this new base of potential licensees, but those discussions will take some time to complete. Fourth, we believe that some of our Chinese licensees are under reporting, and may continue to under report a portion of their 3G/4G device sales. As we have explained in the past, we have robust and active compliance programs in priority for the business going forward. We are taking steps to confirm the underreporting and to work with the licensees to resolve the issues. In summary, primarily, as a result of these four items, a revised QTL fiscal year outlook reflects a reduction of approximately 8% in total reported device sales for the second half of fiscal 2014. The timing of the resolution of these items is uncertain, and we will update you on our progress next quarter. For the calendar year 2014, 3G/4G device forecast, we now expect that total unit demand will be at the high end of our prior unit estimate, for approximately 1.3 billion devices. However, we currently expect that QTL will not participate near term in the full device demand, based on the four items we just explained. We now expect that between 1.04 billion and 1.13 billion 3G/4G devices will be reported to us for sales during calendar 2014. We estimate the impact from these four items on total reported device sales on a percentage basis to be between 6% and 9% for calendar year 2014. The percentage reduction in units is greater than in total reported device sales, because the units are expected to be lower priced devices. Although we have these near term challenges, we continue to expect to collect royalties on all LTE devices globally, including three mode devices sold in China, and have executed more than 110 single mode LTE licenses, in addition to our more than 260 3G licenses, which cover multimode 3G/4G devices. We have had disputes in the past, and have a good track record of successfully resolving those disputes. It is also not uncommon for a licensor to experience some delays in collecting royalties, while they negotiate license agreements covering new entrants or new products. Finally, we are closely monitoring and in discussions with companies that we believe are underreporting or operating without a license, consistent with our longstanding compliance activities around the world. Let me now move on to discuss the status of the investigation in China. As previously disclosed, the China National Development and Reform Commission or the NDRC, is conducting an anti-monopoly investigation of certain aspects of the company's business, primarily the company's licensing business and certain interactions between the company's licensing business and our chipset business. We have met with and are continuing to fully cooperate with the NDRC, as it conducts its investigation, but the timing and outcome of any resolution remains uncertain, as does the impact on our future business in China. That concludes my comments, and I will now turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, George Davis.
George Davis:
Thank you, Derek and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to be reporting strong operating and financial results this quarter, primarily driven by record QCT performance. Fiscal third quarter revenues were a record $6.8 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and 7% sequentially. Non-GAAP operating income of $2.43 billion was up 19% year-over-year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.44 was up 40% year-over-year and up 10% quarter-over-quarter. Overall, non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.24 above the midpoint of our guidance range. Our results included a $164 million charge or $0.08 per share related to the transition of our Mirasol business, as well as a $208 million gain or $0.12 per share for reversal of expenses, related to the favorable ruling in the ParkerVision litigation. Excluding these two items, non-GAAP earnings per share would have been $1.40, $0.20 above the midpoint of our prior guidance range. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licensees were $58.1 billion, and we estimate that 250 million to 254 million 3G/4G based devices were reported by our licensees for the March quarter at an average selling price of $228 to $234, up approximately $7 sequentially at the midpoint. QTL's ASP in the fiscal third quarter reflected strength in mid to high tier devices, as well as the absence of lower ASP devices associated with the licensing challenges, summarized by Derek. In QCT, revenues, earnings before tax and MSM shipments were all quarterly records, as demands strongly exceeded our prior expectations. QCT shipped 225 million MSMs, 12 million units above the high end of our prior guidance range, primarily driven by shipments to Chinese manufacturers for 3G and 3G LTE devices. Implied revenue per MSM was approximately $22, slightly lower sequentially on the mix of demand. QCT operating margin was 23%, also above our prior expectations, reflecting the stronger than expected MSM demand, as well as some favorable impact as a result of the ParkerVision ruling. Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses grew 7% sequentially, in line with our prior expectations. Investment income was strong this quarter, adding $0.06 in EPS relative to our prior guidance. Strength in the financial markets, and changes in asset allocation to lower long term risk in certain of our investment portfolios drove this contribution. Looking ahead, we forecast fiscal fourth quarter investment income to be in the range of $200 million to $250 million, which is down sequentially on lower realized gains. Cash flow from operations was strong at 39% of revenues, and we ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $32.7 billion. During the quarter, we returned almost $2.1 billion to stockholders, including approximately $700 million in dividends and $1.35 billion in stock repurchases. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $6.5 billion remaining on our buyback authorization. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 13% and lower than expected on business mix and the effects of the ParkerVision reversal. Now, turning to our guidance; we are updating our financial forecast for fiscal 2014 to reflect our fiscal third quarter results, and increased outlook for QCT, partially offset by our lower estimates for QTL. We estimate fiscal 2014 revenues to be in the range of approximately $26.3 billion to $27.2 billion, up approximately 8% year-over-year and unchanged at the midpoint from our prior guidance. We expect fiscal 2014 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $5.21 to $5.36, up approximately 17% year-over-year at the midpoint, and up $0.14 per share from our previous guidance midpoint on the strength of our fiscal third quarter. We are increasing our estimate for the reported fiscal 2014 QTL average selling price to approximately $222 to $228, which is $2 above our prior $223 estimate at the midpoint, again reflecting the absence of the mixed impact of underreported and disputed devices. We expect combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense to grow approximately 5% to 6% year-over-year, and as Steve indicated, we are still on track to exit the fiscal year below the run rate at the end of the last fiscal year. Turning to the fourth fiscal quarter, we estimate our revenues to be in the range of approximately $6.5 billion to $7.4 billion, up approximately 7% year-over-year at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fourth fiscal quarter to be approximately $1.20 to $1.35 per share, up approximately 21% year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate fourth fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be between 2% lower and flat sequentially. In QTL, we forecast total reported device sales of $53 billion to $59 billion, down approximately 4% sequentially at the midpoint, reflecting the uncertain timing of potential resolution of the licensing matters. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 230 million to 245 million units during the September quarter, reflecting continued strong demand across all tiers, with particular strength in low and mid-tier chipsets for Chinese OEMs. We expect QCT operating margin to exit the fiscal year above 20% as previously forecasted, as a result of solid execution on spending and supply chain initiatives. We continue to expect 3G/4G channel inventory to remain within the normal 11 to 16 week range through this calendar year, with China related inventory increasing on LTE channel fill. That concludes my comments, and I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity:
Great, thank you. Derek, just going back, as you take the midpoint of the units now excluded, roughly 215 million units, can you help us maybe break it down between the four reasons you gave excluding those units, and the one licensee dispute, is that a meaningful piece of that 215 million excluded now from your outlook?
Derek Aberle:
Sure Mike. Yeah, it’s a little bit hard. We have a pretty wide range on the units, because of the uncertainty of the timing of the resolution, and they are all kind of different in kind. But the licensee dispute is a meaningful contributor to that number during this timeframe, and of course, if that particular licensee were to gain more share or lose share, that can impact the estimate that we have at this time. But they are all meaningful contributors to the numbers that we put out for the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets:
Thank you. If I could just follow-up on the China piece here; maybe, if you could talk to us a little bit about the complexion of some of these customers and what Qualcomm could do to some of them to sell outside of China, where you might have a little bit more leverage. Are they chipset customers, where maybe you also have some leverage on the supply side? And then related to that, do you -- are you concerned about the spreading maybe to some of the other Chinese, and also there has been some stories about some Google initiatives in China with a few handset companies that are not Qualcomm licensees. So maybe can you just talk a little bit about this as potentially being a broader issue than just these OEMs in China? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Sure Tim, this is Derek. Yeah again, there are kind of multiple factors here, so let me try to break them down. On the dispute, I think that's something that we have had -- we have had several of these in the past, as you know, over the years, and our typical process is to try to engage with the licensee and see if we can resolve it through negotiation, which we usually are pretty successful at. And when that doesn't work, things need to take a different course, and even in that route, we have, I think, had a history of pretty successful results there. On the other OEM; so it's really a mixed bag. In the white box or the lower end tablet space, it's really a set of -- kind of a new set of suppliers, that at least today are I think primarily focused in China, and then maybe some of the other emerging regions. And much like the mid to smaller sized companies in China in the past, we have had a lot of success in getting those companies to sign licenses over time. It's really just a timing question, I think, in my mind, because we are kind of at the outset of this growth in a new segment and its new supplier, so it's going to take some time to get those licenses in place. The same is really true for the three mode volume. I think its, from our perspective, more of a timing question, in terms of getting the remaining licenses in place. And then around the underreporting, it is -- again, we are at the pretty early stages of trying to confirm sort of the extent of this, and engage directly with the OEMs in China. But our typical process is, we will uncover something and then we will work with the licensee through the compliance and also an audit process which takes some time, to try to get, what we believe, is a compliance situation. And when that doesn't work, obviously, we have different mechanisms we can pursue under the agreements themselves. So I think, you know again, I think we have a number of avenues available to us, which have proven successful in the past, and we just have, with a little bit of more uncertainty right now in China, we have a period where we need to push these things and its going to take a little time. In terms of things spreading, I am actually -- my sense is that the units that are supplied even into the local brands in India, are really supplied primarily today out of China, and so it would be sort of the similar set of suppliers as we have discussions with for supply in China and the other emerging regions. Its not a -- in other words, it's not a new set of suppliers cropping up in India, that aren't supplied elsewhere from the licensee base.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank:
Yeah guys. So it’s a little bit of math. So we are talking 215 million units for the year, that are, potentially, you are dealing with this licensing collection issue, approximately?
Derek Aberle:
Approximately, that's the midpoint of the range that we gave. Brian, from a TRDS standpoint though, the range is more like 6% to 9%, so it's about half the percentage effect that the units would imply.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. and then if you're -- if these are lower end products, you are probably looking at royalties, on ASP of say $100 or maybe even lower depending on what the product is, is that correct?
Derek Aberle:
I mean these are lower -- yeah, these are lower priced devices that we believe are kind of in this bucket, generally.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse:
Question for Derek again, not surprisingly today Derek. I guess I am trying to understand how this whole thing came about? What I am getting at is that, you mentioned the whole thing about connected tablets taking off, were you previously assuming your guidance, you would license them, and now you can't. I am surprised you have even included that, I guess is my point, and then the additional thing I was just thinking is, in terms of the -- same thing applies to new licensees you were targeting but you weren't able to close them. I am surprised that caused you to revise your estimates down, so that would be an incremental upside, if it ever occurred? And so what I am getting at, is it just the people -- is the main driver this major licensee that's not paying you now, and the underreporting generically by everyone? Because that $200 million on the Chinese market is a really big number on that market frankly; and so I am trying to understand, how this kind of came about, and why it suddenly hit you now, or was it warning indicator [ph] for the last six months about this? Any kind of context around that would be helpful.
Derek Aberle:
Okay. Kulbinder, this is Derek. Let me try to break that down a little bit. So first of all, the 215 million is the midpoint of, as I said, a relatively wide range, and the reason we gave a relatively wide range is just because of the number of factors involved and the uncertainty around the timing of each one of those potential resolutions. The dispute that we have with the licensee, as I said, is a significant contributor to these units. If not all of their units, we have a dispute around some of them, and frankly, I don't think it’s a question of whether they are going to end up paying royalties, it's just a question of the timing of trying to resolve it, and what that resolution will look like. On the white box tablets, we have been monitoring that, and we have been in discussions with a number of those companies. Frankly, just the acceleration of the growth that we expect to see over this period is faster now than we expected a few months ago, or even before that. And that is a contributor, but I am not going to suggest if that's the largest contributor of the units, it's just a piece of it. On the underreporting, again, if you think back to calendar 2013 as we have been monitoring this, and I know you have asked questions about this periodically. You know, we have been really on top of the compliance aspects in China. And really, the first time we are really seeing a meaningful impact of this is in the current quarter that we are reporting, and it's really a relatively recent phenomena. And part of it is really just trying to understand where this will go in terms of a trend, and we have provided a relatively wide range on that for that reason. Again, the typical process is, when we notice things that look suspicious, we will engage with the licensees quickly, and then usually move to an audit process, which takes some time to get the data and then work through the issues. But once we get through that process, we are able to typically get a resolution. So again, I think there is just a number of factors that came together at the same time. Obviously, we are also seeing a ramp in the LTE volumes, from China Mobile, which is a good market phenomena. But given some of the uncertainty there right now and the discussions around the LTE licenses, although they have been ongoing and we have been progressing and increasing the numbers, has been a little slower than we had anticipated. So it's taking longer now to get to some of these agreements. And so we believe we will get there, it's just a question of timing, and it's uncertain in terms of when that will be.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs:
Hi, thank you. I just wanted to see if you can give us a little bit of color Derek, on -- of the 70 licensees that you have in China, what percent of the total volumes in China do those cover? And then is there a distinction in terms of your collection of Chinese-made devices that are sold in China, versus those that are sold overseas?
Derek Aberle:
Yeah, its really hard for us to pinpoint a -- or give a range even for the percentage of the units that will be supplied over the calendar year, where we are giving these projections from the licensee base, that are currently licensed for LTE. There are significant companies in the group of companies that have signed licenses for three mode devices in LTE generally. But there are a number of other meaningful suppliers in China that haven't yet signed up, which is why you are seeing the impact -- and those negotiations are continuing, and I suspect will get concluded, its just a question of when they will be concluded.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup:
Hey guys, thanks. I appreciate it. Sorry about that, I was messing up my phone. Thank you. A couple of questions again, I am trying to get this straight; first of all, on the NDRC, could a possible conclusion of that investigation be something that relates to the royalty rates that you will end up having with your licensees in China, or is that completely separate, and the negotiations you do with the licensees, that will -- and the royalty rates that come out of that, will be totally separate from what the NDRC conclusion is? And then again, just to understand a few of the specific things, I just want to confirm the dispute that you're having with the Chinese vendor, and that is with handsets, as Simona said before, both that they sell within China, as well as ones that they sell outside of China, just coming back to some of the other questions; we can't get to a player large enough in China to be a significant player of that 215 million, if we only consider their Chinese handsets. So just trying to get a frame of that. And if I could sneak one more in, these vendors are not paying, or either underreporting or not paying you now, are these ones that were licensed in the past, and therefore had paid you in the past, not now, or are these new vendors that had never paid you? Sorry for all the questions.
Derek Aberle:
Okay, a little hard to -- hopefully I got all of them scribbled down there. So Ehud, I think -- on the NDRC, I think we have made a pretty robust -- not a pretty robust, a very robust disclosure in our 10-Q, in terms of the range of potential outcomes that could come out of a decision of the NDRC. And so, at this point, we are continuing to fully cooperate, as I said, and try to work through this, but we can't comment specifically on what any particular outcome may be from that proceeding. In parallel, we are in negotiations with a number of licensees as is typical for the business, and there is a little bit -- I would say, a little bit of a more complication and a little bit slower pace of those negotiations, given the backdrop of the investigation, which is having some amount of impact. As to the units, kind of inside versus outside China; the 215 million midpoint or the overall range, would not necessarily be limited to sales, in fact, likely is not limited to sales just for China. Number of these suppliers, as you know, supply worldwide. And so really it’s a phenomena that's right now we believe unique to Chinese OEMs. And as to the ones that are -- that we believe are underreporting, its not a question of companies that have stopped paying or reporting entirely, I think its just -- as we look at the market data that's available to us, which is a very extensive process we have, we now believe that there is a gap between what we expect it to be reported to us, and what actually was reported to us in the third quarter and what we expect for the fourth quarter and for the remainder of the calendar year, unless and until we an get resolution on some of these issues. So its really companies that are under agreement and the typical process I outlined before is to go through sort of the compliance discussion, which has started already, and then from there, if its not resolved, we move to audit, and if ultimately that's unsuccessful, we have other mechanisms to pursue it under the contracts themselves that they have signed.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
James Faucette - Morgan Stanley:
Thanks a lot. Just a quick follow-up to that then Derek; I think you mentioned that you felt like some of the negotiations with potential new licensees were being impacted by the NDRC investigation etcetera. Do you feel like that some of the compliance issues with existing licensees are also being impacted by that same investigation? And then just a quick question, maybe for Steve on the overall market for chips into China, and the emerging markets is that, clearly you're seeing good success and that's evidenced by the large volumes you shipped last quarter, but just wondering how you're feeling about the competitive environment and anything that you need to do from a pricing or a promotion standpoint to continue to [indiscernible] that you'd like to, in those developing markets? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Sure James, this is Derek. I mean, it's clear to us that the investigation, among other things is creating an increased level of uncertainty I think with the licensee base in China right now. I guess the way I would answer that is, we believe the investigation will be resolved at some point. We are working hard to try to see that through, and once that is resolved, I do believe some of the challenges we have had in the near term, will become easier.
Steve Mollenkopf:
James, this is Steve. With regards to your question about chips; it has been an area of strength for us, actually shipping chips into the Chinese customer base. Not all of those, by the way, are being sold in China as well, we have had actually some strength in the 3G portfolio over the last quarter for devices, head into Latin America and rest of the world. So I think its in general, been a very strong picture, and I would say we feel very good about where we sit competitively, and I think if you look at the guide, its consistent with that view.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank:
Yeah guys. The way I was going with that line of questioning earlier was, if you -- its like you assume 215 million units, and you assume probably an ASP of around $100 getting into China, and [indiscernible] royalty rate, we are talking about say $645 million, $650 million of revenues in royalties that you will need to pull back over time, once these disputes get settled. Is that a kind of good way to look at it? And then a second question for you Steve, you're doing a lot of work around -- your 28-nanometer RF getting ready to start shipping in October. You have got a ton of 14-nanometer taken off the curtain with Samsung. Can you talk a little bit about how some of these advances you're doing on the substrate side would help you from an economies of scale and margin standpoint against the competitors, that should push forward aggressively in these areas? Thanks.
George Davis:
Hey Brian, this is George, I will take a shot at your -- the sizing issue. I think your basic math is in general, right. The way I would look at it, in terms of -- these are lower price devices on average, less than 50% of the average for the overall ASP for the company that we report. And I think -- one of the things you can do is, this is a very strong year relative to our expectations, on the QCT side for the year. Now we talked last quarter about there being a bit of a lag, just because of the timing of the ramp in QCT that QTL wouldn't fully participate this year, all things being equal, but it was really good momentum going into 2015. So I think if you look at the -- if you want to try and size the impact, I think you would have started to see this impact more fully realize in the third quarter, fourth calendar quarter, and if you look at what the year-over-year looks like there, we are down about 3% year-over-year on QCT this quarter, it widens out a little bit next quarter -- QTL, excuse me, not QCT. Obviously QCT was up significantly year-over-year. So I think you can size it. We would have expected and expect this result, that this will be a strong momentum for QTL as well.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And Brian, on your question about the substrates and different technologies that we are going to -- there were a couple of things I think, one is, its clearly been an advantage to have the scale that we have and to have that scale across multiple foundries that's helped us with supplies, its helped us with pricing, it has helped us with a number of items. And then I think probably the most important thing is from the design perspective, your ability to go to advanced node and to integrate a number of different technologies on to the same die and increasingly, those technologies are F technologies, that has been a competitive advantage for us, and we think its going to continue to be in a competitive advantage moving forward. So we continue to push that -- that's one of the things that I mentioned in my script, that we were pleased that we are able to even execute on that strategy, while cutting back on the OpEx as well. So its -- we feel like we are pretty positioned well from a product perspective.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. The first one, 215 million units out of your forecast seems too big to me to be strictly 4G in China situation. So can you give us some feeling for -- suspect this is beyond 4G, this is 3G as well, so do you ha actually have 3G licensees that we are paying, who are now underreporting as its leaking out? Secondly on the NDRC, I know in your Q you talked about that there would be likely a probable impact, a financial impact, but you're unable to size it at this point. Can you talk about what some of the possibilities are, anywhere from a [indiscernible] business model transitions. Is there a possibility that there could be an adverse change to your business in China, and if there is, how do you stop that adverse change from leaking out of China into the rest of your regions, and impacting your royalty business overall?
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, this is Derek. Yeah so on the 215 million midpoint, again, from the TRDS impact, you will see significantly less than that. The reason I try to kind of break it down into four different buckets, is because of the underreporting bucket that you mentioned, that we believe is going on right now, is broader than just LTE, would include 3G volumes as well, and so that's -- when we look at the market, in terms of both China and devices flowing outside of China to other parts of the world, that's encompassing the broader technology set than just 4G. On the NDRC, really I don't think I can say much more than I said in response to a prior question. Other than, yes, we did change the disclosure to indicate that -- we believed some loss would be probable. But given the many factors that are involved there, we are really not in a position to be able to estimate what that might look like, we just believe whatever the resolution may be, will likely include some form of payment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead with your question.
Romit Shah - Nomura:
Thanks. A couple. Derek, first, the NDRC investigation, should we expect some resolution this year, or should we be waiting for this thing to spill into 2015? The other question I had was, on just the strength in MSM this quarter, you mentioned emerging -- can you talk a little bit about how the -- your tier-1 customers influence the performance here in June and your outlook for September? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
So this is Derek, I will take the first one. It is pretty difficult to determine timing on the NDRC resolution. As I have said in the past, we are -- this is obviously a large priority for the company to resolve it, and we are cooperating and actively engaged with the NDRC to try to get to resolve this as expeditiously as possible.
Steve Mollenkopf:
And on the second question, I think this last quarter, we really benefited from our diversified customer base and our strength across tiers, and that continues to be something that we think will be a good part of the business. What we are seeing in China, and I think most people probably don't realize all the time, is that it is very much a multi-tiered market, and we are seeing strength across the tiers. And what's really interesting is that, you're seeing a lot of the OEMs in China going international as well, and that's -- I think that's helping us on the chipset business as well. One other thing that I wanted to mentioned and it was in my script, is that we will be focusing more and more of our chipset roadmap and energy on increasing the pace in which we refresh that roadmap and I think that will benefit us as well moving forward, in the customer base.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri - Cowen and Company:
Thanks a lot. I have two. First Derek, of the 215 million units, can you somehow put those into each of the four buckets, the dispute, the tablets, the three mode and then the underreporting. And then, a question for George; George, I a trying to get the pro forma op margins for QCT. It looks like it's about 19%. And if that's right, I am surprised it wasn't a little better given the revenue upside, so I wanted you to comment on that. Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Tim, this is Derek. Again, the 215 million is the midpoint of a relatively wide range of units, and a number of different assumptions in terms of potential outcomes are baked into sort of the high end versus the low end of that. And so it's really hard to break down the bucketing of that. As I said, I think, probably the smallest contributor in this timeframe would be the tablet space, which shouldn't be surprising, and kind of the other three are all pretty meaningful contributors.
George Davis:
Tim, I am not sure I followed that. The operating profit percentage that was reported was at 23% for QCT, very strong, certainly above the expectations. We said we are going to exit the year above 20%. If you put all those together and look at our 18% to 20% range for the year, we are clearly at the high end of that. And I think that's fully -- in keeping with our outlook for the year, and benefiting a little bit more from the upside in MSM units.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi guys. Before I go to the main question, just a few housekeeping items; implied royalty rate was higher than you said last quarter. Last quarter you said its going to be 3.1%, and you reported 3.24%, you can go over it. Also the ASPs were higher, is this just related to the elimination of China in the number that there -- that was part of China that we are talking here about? Or is it also related to other things? Also financial expenses --
Derek Aberle:
Could you repeat that question, I think -- okay, go ahead.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Should I repeat the question?
Derek Aberle:
No its okay. He got it.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Half of the outperformance this quarter outside of the revenues was higher financial income, lower taxes, what's going on there, if you can discuss? So these are all the P&L items. One question that I have on the issues of the licensing issue, is -- what I want to understand is, is it related to MediaTek not reporting anymore the numbers to you, so you have more limited way to audit the numbers that the vendors are reporting? Or is it more related to new technology and vendors basically making it very broad kind of claim saying, this kind of technology we are not paying, which is -- there is a difference in the difficulty to convince them to pay in one scenario versus another? Thanks.
George Davis:
Maybe I will jump on the P&L items first, and the implied royalty rate. So I think we are looking at different numbers. The reported number would be 3.1%, which was right on top of what we had guided. So if you have got some more questions, you should may be check with the IR team, they can go through the calculation. In terms of tax, what you saw is, actually last quarter, we reached a settlement which lowered out outlook for the tax rate for the year. We got an additional benefit this quarter as well from the effects of the reversal of the ParkerVision judgment and so that was a -- it didn't carry tax with it, so it had the overall effect of lowering our tax rate. And as we have been reporting, we are seeing higher investment income on gains in the portfolio, as we have started to implement higher return of capital, we have had a program to reduce some of the volatility in the higher risk assets that are in our long dated portfolio, just to keep our risk levels in line and so, that's led to gains; and the gains turned out to be a little bit higher than we thought in the quarter, because it has just been such a strong financial market. As we've sold those down, we have had greater benefit.
Derek Aberle:
Tal, this is Derek. On the ASP for the quarter, I think really the primary driver was the fact that we got -- we had less volume in than we expected at the lower tier devices in China, that's really the primary driver. On your second question, really the underreporting, it's not an issue of kind of a new technology issue as you described it -- meaning, licensees taking a position that they don't owe royalties on a particular product or technology under their agreement. We really think it is just a -- as we dig into this we are going to -- we believe we will find that they are only reporting something less than 100% of their sales, and hoping they are going to be able to get away with it. Again, we have always been very clear that, you know, the effort involved in making sure we collect on everything in China is significant, and we have a lot of resource in that, and we triangulate a lot of different information at -- we get from MediaTek as one element, and certainly, having less information makes things a little more difficult than having more information. But that, we don't believe is the primary sort of indicator for what's going on here.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets:
Thank you. Gentlemen, historically, when Qualcomm worked and settled with the Korean vendors, the Japanese, or even the European vendors, we have always had a subsequent resolution and subsequent recovery, and along the way, there was a little bit of give or take, which then sets a precedent. China just seems like a whole new animal in terms of the size and the scope; so conceptually, should we think about just kind of the different structural rate going forward, considering that there is a balance of allocating power that seems to be shifting. How do we kind of containerize what happens in China, so that is not inflicted by others as a precedent; and also additionally, is there additional OpEx that we should be thinking about, in terms of the cost of doing business in China, auditing the extra data for example? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
I am not sure -- again, I think the way that we have been handling China is very similar to the way that we have addressed our licensing program worldwide, very consistent. You're right that -- I would say the typical resolution of these things, when there is a period of uncertainty in a period of time where amounts are not being paid to us, that we believe are recoverable. That resolution usually carries with it, some kind of recovery for past, and I have no reason to believe, that would also be the case with the items that we have outlined. Again, we look at the compliance activity very carefully, and that's a meaningful part of the program and has been for several years, the number of audits that we do has increased pretty much every year. But we do have, I mean -- I think we do have a reasonable amount of resource and we have that in the plan, I don't see like a significant increase in OpEx that would be needed to address the issues. Again, our best assessment is, that these are near term challenges that given a period of uncertainty we have, may take some time to resolve, but will get resolved, and we will just have to see how this plays out, as we move forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Rod Hall - JP Morgan:
Hi guys, thanks for the question. I guess I had a couple. Derek, I wondered if you could talk a little bit about the likelihood this turns into a collective bargaining situation, or if it is already there, and if that's the case, who the negotiator on the other side of the table would be? Would it be a consortium of these companies, or some representative of them? So if you could just kind of talk about how you expect this to play out in the single deal you do with all the companies, or do you do individual deals with everybody? Also, I wanted to go back to the question on the reports that -- the question on the chips and the involvement of the chips, it seems clear that that 215 million number involves people pulling CDMA royalties from you that they'd already agreed to pay. So why wouldn't chips at some point, get involved in this, if the negotiation drags on? Is there any good logical reason why that wouldn't happen? Just would be curious to hear that. And then lastly, given that the fun place that China is to do business, we have also got these reports the government is talking about limiting high end marketing spending from the carriers, I wonder maybe Steve, since you are there, could you comment on what's going on with that? Is that's a real issue? Is that's something that's going to impact high end smartphone demand over time? Be interested in some color on that, thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Rod, hey this is Derek. Let me try to take the first two, and then Steve can cover the last one. So again, we have sort of two things; we do have the NDRC investigation ongoing, and as we have said, we are actively engaged with them, to try to find a resolution. We don't know exactly what the impact or the resolution will look like, both looking backwards or looking forward; we are just continuing to try to -- just try to work that one and get to a resolution. Beyond that, we don't anticipate that there will be sort of a need or a movement to collective negotiation with companies in China. That has not been the practice that we followed successfully over the last many number of years. And that continues to be the way that we were operating. We are basically in discussions with individual companies, which every company has different needs, different business models, etcetera. And so collective deal really isn't typically appropriate in any event. So I expect going forward, we will continue to negotiate like we have in the past, individually, with the various companies, and that won't be a change. On the chip side, I am not sure I fully understood your question, but let me try to answer it as best I can. Certainly, if you look at the magnitude of the number of units that we have kind of in this range, there are -- we do expect that there will be products in that mix, that aren't reported to us for a period of time, that could include our chipsets. Our typical practice, when that has happened in the past, is to engage with the licensee and try to work it out and find a resolution and pursue payment under the license, without an impact on the chip side. And that's what we would plan to do here as well.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Rod, this is Steve. There have been reports about the level of subsidy changing in China. I don't know to a degree that we are seeing that reflected in the demand. I mean, if you look at the raw number of dollars that are actually authorized, its quite a number. And I would say, I would characterize our demand across tiers to be fairly robust. So I am not sure we are seeing a downstream impact of that concern.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Anil Doradla with William Blair. Please go ahead with your question.
Anil Doradla - William Blair:
Hey guys, if I recall, Derek, some time ago you talked about maybe all the licensees now due to 2017. I think that was the comment you made maybe a year, year and half ago. Can you give us an update on that from the Chinese guys? And as a follow-up, Broadcom obviously exiting the baseband business, they talked about even writing down all that stuff, what immediate impacts have you seen in your business with them getting out of baseband? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
So I think straining my memory a little bit, but let me try. Going back several years ago, we did talk about at one point in time, we had basically five WCDMA licenses that had to get extended before that time frame that you mentioned, 2017-2018. And then we kind of knocked all of those off some time ago. We haven't really updated that or given color, as to whether there are other agreements that need to be extended beyond that. So that's a little bit of a dated number, and I don't think we are prepared to update that today.
Warren Kneeshaw:
I'd like to thank each of you for joining us here today. Brent, we are ready to wrap up the call.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Investor Relations Steve Mollenkopf - Chief Executive Officer, Director George Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President Derek Aberle - President Don Rosenberg - Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Tavis McCourt - Raymond James Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Timothy Arcuri - Cowen and Company Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein Tal Liani - Bank of America Blayne Curtis - Barclays Mark McKechnie - Evercore
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded April 23, 2014. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers, please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 25607511. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Derek Aberle and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast is accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our website at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, if we use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I'd also like to direct you to our 10-Q and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our website. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or company results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contains important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Now, I would like to introduce QUALCOMM's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon everyone. I would like to start by congratulating Derek Aberle on his promotion to President of QUALCOMM. Derek has been instrumental in creating and growing many important areas of QUALCOMM's business over his tenure, including our licensing business as well as our platforms and services businesses. Under his leadership, QTL has more than doubled its revenues and profits, completed key license agreements and established QUALCOMM's 4G licensing program. I'm looking forward to continuing to work closely with Derek as we lead the next chapter of growth and success for QUALCOMM. Turning to our performance, we delivered another solid quarter driven by continued leadership of our multimode 3G LTE chipset solutions and record licensing revenues. In recognition of our strong financial position and the continued growth of our business, we recently announced a 20% increase in our dividend as well as a new share repurchase authorization of $7.8 billion. QTL had a record quarter from both, the revenue and earnings standpoint. Total reported device sales were also a record, but came in at the low end of expectations. In particular, licensee shipments in China were lower than expected. We believe consumer purchasing decisions were delayed in advance of the rollout of LTE and TDS CDMA volumes were stronger than anticipated and negatively impacted sales of WCDMA CMA 2,000 units. We believe much of this situation continued through the March period as well as a slower than expected ramp of LTE sales in China. Despite these near-term headwinds, we continue to forecast strong growth of 3G/4G -based device shipments in calendar 2014, albeit somewhat more backend loaded than our previous expectation. We continue to grow our base of single mode 4G OFDMA licensees and now have over 100 globally, including more than 60 in China. These are in addition to the over 255 CDMA-based licensees we have globally. QUALCOMM continues to invest heavily in developing the leading and most widely licensed portfolio of patented technologies applicable to 3G and 4G devices. In addition to our industry-leading position in 3G and 4G technologies, our licensed technologies include a wide variety of other technologies implemented in the same devices. In QCT, we continued to build on our broad customer footprint as revenues in MSM shipments were up 8% and 9% year-over-year, respectively, MSM chip shipments were in line with expectations with a stronger mix of products in the premium tier. QCT's strong product leadership continues. Multiple products based on our Snapdragon 801 chipset have recently launched, including the Samsung Galaxy S5, the new HTC One M8 and the Sony Xperia Z2 smartphones and tablet. Products based on our Snapdragon 805 and fourth-generation multimode 3G/4G modem, featuring Cat 6 LTE are expected to launch later this year. In addition, we recently announced several new products in our roadmap, further demonstrating our leadership position in bringing 3G LTE modems and 64-bit CPU architectures across multiple product tiers. Globally, the momentum of Snapdragon-based devices continues to grow with more than 525 designs in the pipeline. In the second half of the fiscal year, we expect more than half of our MSM chip shipments to be LTE-enabled. Our Wi-Fi revenues are strong and growing and fiscal year-to-date Wi-Fi shipments are up more than 45% year-over-year. We now have over 350 802.11ac designs, including more than 250 on our mobile solutions. We also announced our next innovation in Wi-Fi, with a comprehensive set of products that use multi-user MIMO to make it to the 802.11ac networks more efficient, delivering up to a 3X improvement in throughput. Here, we are able to take use of spatial reuse techniques we developed for cellular and use them to improve our Wi-Fi chipsets. Looking forward, we believe LTE and unlicensed spectrum will provide further capacity enhancements and coexist nicely with Wi-Fi to help meet the expected significant increase in data demand. We are making excellent progress with her RF360 solutions, particularly the envelope tracker. Total shipments more than double this quarter and we now have over 75 designs across 15 OEMs. Looking forward, our long-term growth drivers remain intact. Gartner forecast approximately 1.9 billion smart phones to be shipped in 2018, while cumulative smartphone shipments between 2014 and 2018 will reach approximately 8 billion. We continue to forecast strong 3G/4G device shipments for calendar year 2014 and the rollout of 4G in China continues to be an important near-term growth catalyst for our business. Each of the operators in China have aggressive LTE rollout planned with China Mobile alone planning to expand its network coverage nationwide to more than 500,000 LTE base stations by the end of 2014. We have strong LTE design momentum with the OEMs in China, which is driving significant demand for our multimode 3G LTE chipsets. On a global basis, the deployment of overlay LTE networks continues to be a key growth driver for us as over 270 operators have now deployed LTE and more than 210 additional operators are planning deployments according to the GSA. Further, they report that 48 operators are investing carrier aggregation across 28 countries and seven operators have launched commercially. The extension of mobile technologies into industry such as automotive, healthcare, smart city's, energy and other consumer electronics wearables and other segments is also another set of growth opportunities for us. Looking forward, industry analysts forecast approximately 400 million 3G/4G non-handset device shipments in 2017. Our inventions provide key building blocks in solving complex issues across these different verticals. Our strategy is to help the ecosystem use these technologies in a most innovative and effective ways. On the mobile computing front, there have been several positive developments. Microsoft is now offering its Office Suite on non-Windows-based tablets, further enhancing the utility of these devices by augmenting their productivity features. In addition, there are continued efforts from operators to encourage wireless data usage on connected tablets, including T-Mobile which recently announced an offer of up to 1.2 gigabyte of free data monthly for connected tablets as well as an offer for LTE-enabled tablets at equivalent prices to the Wi-Fi-only models. In closing, we delivered another solid quarter and we are pleased to be raising our fiscal year earnings per share guidance. We have strong momentum with our semiconductor solutions and see significant growth ahead for 3G/4G devices, including the continued rollout of multimode 3G LTE devices in China and elsewhere throughout the globe. That concludes my remarks and I would now like to turn the call over to George Davis.
George Davis:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report record non-GAAP earnings per share this quarter, driven by better than expected operating performance from our QCT business and record QTL performance combined with strong investment gains and a lower than expected tax rate. Fiscal second-quarter revenues were $6.4 billion, up 4% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share were a record $1.31, $0.06 above the high-end and $0.11 above the $1.20 midpoint of our prior guidance range. The $0.11 improvement was driven by about $0.04 of operating items, including the combination of stronger margins in QCT and lower than expected operating expenses, partially offset by lower total reported device sales and mixed effects in QTL. Non-operating items added $0.07 from the combination of investment gains and the impact of the tax agreement. QCT revenue and earnings before tax were above expectations, with revenues of $4.2 billion and shipments of 188 million MSM chipsets. Implied revenue per MSM was higher sequentially on mix contributing to a 17% QCT operating margin. That was above our prior expectations. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licensees were a record $66.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year, but at the low end of our guidance range primarily reflecting lower than expected total reported device sales in China. The estimated average selling price was $224 at the midpoint, higher sequentially reflecting a slightly higher ASP in developed regions and estimated 3G/4G-based device shipments were 297 million at the midpoint. With respect to reported units, we have reduced the midpoint of our calendar 2013 3G/4G device shipment estimate by approximately 17 million units to reflect the lower than expected device shipments reported for the December quarter. The unit shortfall was driven primarily by lower sales in China and North America. In the second quarter, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased 3%, sequentially, as seasonal increases in employer taxes were more than offset by the absence of our Omni business, continued spending discipline and other employee-related cost reductions. Year-over-year OpEx in the quarter is up 1% as R&D increases are being partially offset by lower SG&A and lower employee related costs, various cost initiatives, lower patent and legal expense and the absence of Omnitracs. Returns on our investment portfolio reflect gains from strong investment results being recognized as we balance risk in the portfolio in line with our increased capital return targets. Our forecast includes continuing gain recognition over the next two fiscal quarters although at somewhat lower levels than in Q2. During the fiscal second-quarter, we returned approximately $1.6 billion to stockholders, including $589 million of dividends paid and $1 billion in stock repurchases. During the quarter, we announced 20% increase in our dividend and increased our stock repurchase authorization to $7.8 billion. Cash flow from operations was $1.8 billion or 28% of revenues and we ended the fiscal quarter with cash and marketable securities of $32.1 billion. Our tax rate was lower than expected during the quarter as we reached agreement with the IRS on certain U.S. tax matters relating to ongoing royalties and transfer pricing. We now expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 16% for fiscal 2014. On the legal front, the company received a Wells Notice from the SEC regional staff regarding their FCPA investigation. The notice reflects the staff's preliminary determination to recommend that the SEC file a civil action against the company. We responded with a Wells submission expressing our belief that we have not violated the FCPA and that therefore no action should be taken. We are continuing to cooperate with the investigation. Looking ahead, our guidance for fiscal 2014 is mostly unchanged except that we are modestly increasing our earnings per share expectations for the fiscal year to reflect the better than expected performance year-to-date. We have increased our outlook for QCT business for the remainder of fiscal 2014, driven by our strong LTE product leadership and the expected ramp of LTE in China. We have reduced our outlook for QTL for fiscal 2014, as a result of among other things, the soft seen in the December 2013 quarter for reported devices and near-term spike in sales of TDS CDMA devices in China to clear the channel for new LTE devices, a more backend loaded ramp from LTE deployment in China, which will push volumes outside of QTL's fiscal 2014 and lower revenue per unit on the impact of global OEM share mix. We now expect fiscal 2014 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $5.05 to $5.25, up approximately 14% year-over-year at the midpoint relative to 2013, and up $0.05 at the midpoint from our prior guidance. We are holding our forecast for total calendar 2014 estimated 3G/4G-based device shipments, but our forecasted now weighted more towards the second half of the calendar year, reflecting our updated view of the timing of the expected LTE device ramp in China. It is worth noting that this revised forecast results in shifting a greater portion of QTL royalty units out of fiscal 2014, which reflects reported units for the 12 months ending in June 2014 and then into our fiscal 2015. In QCT, we continue to forecast operating margins to be 18% to 20% for fiscal 2014 and to exit the year above 20%. For the third quarter of fiscal 2014, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion, up approximately 4% year-over-year at the midpoint and 2%, sequentially. Our estimates reflect high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for QCT and relatively flat year-over-year growth for QTL as unit growth is offset by lower revenue per unit on mix. We estimate non-GAAP earnings-per-share in our fiscal third quarter to be approximately $1.15 to $1.25 per share, up 17% year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be higher, up 6% to $8%sequentially, primarily driven by QCT product roadmap and supply chain initiatives. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $56 billion to $62 billion will be reported by our licensees. In the June quarter, for shipments they made in the March quarter, up approximately 4% year-over-year at the midpoint, but lower sequentially as compared to the seasonally higher holiday quarter shipments. We estimate that the QTL device ASP will be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter and we expect QTL's operating margin percentage to be modestly lower sequentially, primarily due to lower revenue. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 198 million to 213 million units during the quarter, up 9% at the midpoint, sequentially, and up approximately 19% year-over-year at the midpoint and we expect revenue per MSM to be similar. We expect QCT operating margin to be approximately 18% to 20% for the third quarter, higher sequentially reflecting increased MSM volume. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs:
Hi. Thanks very much. Just a couple of questions, the first one was on your guidance just clarifying. It sounds like you are raising your overall QCT guidance for the year on higher LTE expectations in China, but at the same time you are lowering QTL because of the how they have held within the fiscal versus calendar year, so what gives you the confidence that even though the timing is pushed out, the absolute magnitude of that is going to be higher, hence driving upside in QCT. Then the second question was on the implied royalty rate which has been now about 3.1% for three quarters in a row. Previously it had been about 2.3% for six quarters in a row. Is this the new rate that we should be thinking about going forward? Thank you.
George Davis:
Hi, Simona. This is George. One of the things I would point to the guidance, first off you are right. The biggest single factor is how the LTE ramp is going to take place and you'll see it quite demonstrably in the QCT results. If anything that should give you confidence in what is coming for QTL, but we are also seeing much more TDS CDMA inventory drawdown going on in China right now which really QTL doesn't participate in and that's another factor that kind of exacerbates the China effect.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Simona, this is Steve as well. In terms of the confidence, what you're seeing in the QCT numbers is, I think you are strength really across the board in fact broadly in China across tiers and across OEMs and our problem now is not really a demand problem. Actually in the near-term, we are actually trying to fight through some short-term supply issues because the demand has been even more than we thought. I think we feel pretty good about the QCT numbers. Also although it's outside of the fiscal year, I think thinking about QCT as a leading indicator for QTL is also a good way to think about the business as well.
Derek Aberle:
Simona, this is Derek. On externally imply growth rate that you guys calculate, we were at 3.08 last quarter and kind of indicated we expected that the trend in Q2. It did come up a little bit to 3.11, but frankly I we expected it would be a bit higher and it was hit by a couple of things. One was the timing of some of the cash-based payments we now have from some of the smaller licensees, little bit of OEM mix and then also a higher percentage of the TODS hitting the caps with things like tablets and the strength that still remains in ASPs in the developed regions. As we look ahead to the year, I think we gave the range in November of sort of 31 to 33 for the full-year, full fiscal '14 and I think just given away the year is playing out we've seen for instance a little bit higher deductions from some of the price discounting that went on in the early part of years, year before some of the iconic phones we expect to come out here in the back half. We've also again as I said had a higher percentage of things hitting cap, so I think we are now looking at it and assuming for the year we would likely to be towards the low end of the 31 to 33 range for fiscal '14.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt - Raymond James:
Thanks for taking my question. I guess, Steve, you mentioned that the MSM business potentially being a leading indicator for the royalty business. I guess that premise there is that ultimately these LTE chip builds results in sales in China, but I am wondering how much visibility do you have on promotional activity given the lack of demand so far. Then secondly on MSM ASPs, can you talk about what drove those up sequentially relative to last quarter? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. On QCT side, that I think if you look at the QCT numbers, obviously it's really a quarter prior to the same units hitting a QTL, so we feel pretty good about what's happening there and how it leads into the QTL side on. On the chip shipments, probably the best indicators, we are just seeing a lot of design pipeline and request for chips. As if it's almost like a spring that wound and they are waiting for kind of the official start to happen, but we are really pleased with how that been happening so far. Now, as we have said in previous reports, it's very difficult to predict the exact timing on the start of the ramp and in particular one that has so much intensity around it, but we are working like crazy to get chipsets into multiple OEMs to support it, and that's why you know we tend to have a reasonable confidence based on what we are seeing in QCT. I am sorry. You had a second question, our MSM ASP, really we had a strong mix actually. If you look at what happened in the March quarter is the mixed was pretty strong, in particular some of the devices that than have been launching worldwide that continues to be something that's good for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity:
Great. Thanks. Steve just on the revenue per MSM, I think you guys talked about in the call, it's 50% plus of your shipments with the LTE in the second half of the year show that mix shift to expect the revenue per MSN to increase throughout the remainder of the year. Then also with OpEx up a bit sequentially R&D, just update on the cost optimization program and how is that trending versus your 20%-plus operating margin target for fiscal year. Thank you.
Steve Mollenkopf:
On the second one first, I think we feel pretty good actually how the cost discipline in QCT has been in transpiring throughout the years, so I think that's it in a good direction. Same thing with the supply chain. Now, in terms of your first question about mix, I think George gave them indications about what it would be sequentially, which I think was roughly I think if I look at your comments that you just made. The one thing to remember about the launch of LTE and in particular our strategy to support that launch is that this will be a launch across multiple tiers, so we are going to be launching at the high tier with products in 800 class as well as the 400 and 200 class, so we are going to be refreshing those portfolios as well as we go into '16, so I think it's going to be a broad based launch and the way to think about at least the way we think about is you are you're adding a new tier which is the premium LTE tier, but also replacing the tier which is now sitting a TDS CDMA, so those blended numbers may not produce the premium uplift hat you are thinking about, but I think that's a good trend for us broadly as the business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Brian Modoff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank:
Hi, guys. A couple of questions. With regard to LTE, you are talking about the 6% of volumes in the back half, what are you seeing from (Inaudible) demand playing up from we are just talking about low to high end, what are you seeing competitively from other vendors in terms of any volume shifts. Do you expect to see any of the - and any volume this year. Then with regards to the Wells Notice, you know what have you guys seen historically as kind of what we could expect from the government from a standpoint of any disciplinary rulings like what are typical outcomes that that you see what companies do actually end up having to settle with the SEC and things like this.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Brian, this is Steve. On your question about the competitive environment, it's obviously a very competitive market. A lot of people are going after the market, but we feel good about our leadership position and actually I would say it's a leadership position across tiers and across multiple technologies in the tiers. For example, we have been launching - we announced and are now ramping the 64-bit products across tiers that go along with the LTE and we think that's going to be an important component of how we compete and continue to compete moving forward. Just being ahead of people and being ahead of them across tiers, I also think that that will be very important outside of China as well, which as you build a strong position in LTE across tiers and you use that to convert the emerging markets as well, so we feel pretty good about where that sits right now from what we are seeing in the accounts.
Don Rosenberg:
Brian, it's Don Rosenberg. On your Wells question, I mean, you and everybody else can do the same research we do. You can look at the historical record on these kinds of things, but I should say that as we say in our keep in mind that the Wells Notice is a reflection of the regional staff's preliminary recommendation. We've responded. We think with our good arguments as to why we don't think there is an FCPA violation here. This is going to continue in terms of discussions, so at this point I wouldn't want to say anything that sounds like any kind of prediction, but in terms of how these things have played out in the past, as I said you can take a look yourself.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets:
Thank you. I wanted to go back to the units for the December quarter. Maybe for you, Derek. Just looking overall first on the China piece, I am just curious do you think there is some of OEMs have reported numbers for the December quarter and it didn't really look that bad, so just curious if you think other than the mix shift TDS CDMA whatever, do you think you are getting paid less by licensees in China now? If so, or if not does government and all the U.S. China issues have anything to do with that? Second part of it, the $6 million that you took out of developed for the year 2013, I'm assuming that's all Q4. That's a pretty meaningful numbers, so you mentioned North America, but what do you think is going on there and do you think the upgrade programs will help that. Then just last, even if you just give normal seasonality over the last few years, it looks to me like you are still probably $25 million $30 million phones light, so is there something else going on more broadly that you think impacted the December and now the March quarters? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Tim, this is Derek. Let me try that. I'll just take those one-by-one, maybe I will jump into North America first actually, so I think this was pretty widely seen across a number of the OEMs. Really in North America, in particular is where we saw the softness in the developed regions in the December quarter and I think it was kind of a combination of a couple things, but one of the key drivers was many of the operators appear to have really more stringently enforced, the two-year upgrade cycles versus kind of their historical practice I think in an effort to try to move more people to their early upgrade programs and at least initially end of the December quarter kind of the net-net of that was negative and we saw a slowdown in the replacement cycle. I don't know if you have caught, but AT&T reported just in the last day or so and it looks like they had a pretty interesting shift in Q1 of replacements going to the early upgrade program, so what we have kind of done for the calendar '14 year is assume we had already had a reduction in the replacement rate into our calendar '14 numbers and we have taken a little bit further reduction on that in North America, but there are at least some early signs that more people are embracing the early upgrade programs and so we will have to kind of wait and see how that plays out in terms of driving the replacement rate in developed regions. In China, I think again approximately 11 million units that we were down in the December quarter, primarily from China although there were some impact in a couple of the regions as well really is again consistent with the data that I think that has come out of the China market in terms of a slowdown before the LTE launch and I think what got reported to us I think is largely consistent with what sort of people expected after the reporting came in for the December quarter. Again, I think more of a market dynamic in terms of a slowdown before the LTE launch. Then as George pointed out earlier, what we saw coming into the March quarter is, I think it's very clear to the OEMs that the subsidy will be shifting from 3G to 4G devices in the near future so I think an effort really to kind of believe the channel of TDS CDMA, which is having a negative impact on us from a QTL standpoint in the in the March quarter. Again, we continue to be very vigilant in our compliance activities in China, and as I have said in the past, there is always a certain amount of leakage there, but we continue to do all the things that we think that worked well for us in the past and we are going to continue to stay on top of that, but I think really you are seeing a lot of market dynamics driving the results there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Timothy Arcuri with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Timothy Arcuri - Cowen and Company:
Thanks. I had a couple. First of all, can you talk a little bit about the pricing environment for LTE, particularly there was a very large semiconductor company that now is segment about how much money that they are losing in their mobile business, so can you talk a little bit about the pricing environment in LTE number one. Then number two, can you update us on the pace of the ramp for LTE in China and maybe speak how long it will take until LTE unit volumes in China cross over with TDS CDMA? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Tim, this is Steve, I will hit the first part. I don't have answer to the second one. Maybe my colleagues can work on that while I am first part. On LTE, that's actually one of our premium areas, so we tend to have - that tends to be a good area for us in terms of pricing. As I previously mentioned, in addition to supporting that in the premium tier, we also support that across tiers and part of the purpose of doing that is to accelerate the transition globally to multimode 3G/4G, so therefore we actually we do have chipsets specifically designed to hit the price points of mass-market smartphones and even and even the transition things like that TDS CDMA volume into the TD LTE volume as well, so it's really a mixed and today the majority, actually the vast majority of our chipsets support LTE and as has been our practice, we supported across tiers, so it's really a very much at a mix. Now, because we have a leadership position and we think we can maintain leadership position because we were really several generations of folks, we have been able to - that has been good for the business and we are endeavoring to keep that going.
Derek Aberle:
This is Derek. On kind of the shift from TDS CDMA to LTE, again I think we are seeing as in the March quarter, I think in anticipation of the shift in subsidy from 3G to LTE devices that's coming really the OEMs pretty aggressively trying to try to burn through the inventory there, so we saw a pretty meaningful increase in sales in the March quarter and that also had the effect of love cannibalizing to some extent the WCDMA and feeding a volumes in China. As Steve has commented on, we really are seeing know the supply chain, the OEM base really aggressively prepared the launch and growth of LTE devices so I think we will continue to see some amount of TDS CDMA sales. We believe they really be pushed to the to the very lowest tiers of devices. LTE is already starting to come in the low tier as well, so I think that there is going to be pretty accelerated transition as LTE takes off.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup:
Hey, guys. Appreciate it. Thank you. A couple of things, in the past you guys had mentioned that the caps on tablets were voluntary. Just wondering if there is a strategy at some point to take those caps off at the time we get a date, but is that something that's still out there [to consider] and how should we be looking at that down the road. George, you talked about exiting the year on the QCT operating margin at above 20%. How do we look at that then going forward? Are we still looking at kind of the low 20s going forward in out years or are we going to get some sort of (Inaudible) 21 22 sort of on average as we get to next year and beyond. Third question, is China Mobile obviously was in the first calendar quarter of the year was still under three mode requirement by June, they will move to five mode requirement, do you see that impacting at all your success in the QCT side and how do you factor that into and what you are telling us. Then finally anything else about? I mean, I saw the 10-Q commentary in the Wells Notice, I am looking for some more detail on specifically what were the instances that that are in question and what are they alleging besides from this overall allegation? Is there anything specifically you can tell us as to what they are specifically saying and what you are rebutting or is it complete kind of secret.
Derek Aberle:
Ehude, this is Derek. On the tablet caps, yes, you are right. We put that in as a voluntary program and I have to say obviously we have been a little bit disappointed with the uptake on the connected attach rates for tablets, but the good news is I think we are starting to finally see some positive signs both in terms of the way that the operators are approaching data plans and some of the incentives that are being provided to drive more WAN connected tablets and then also kind of the on-ramp in some emerging regions where Wi-Fi is no less established than in the develop regions, so I kind of feel like we are bit at an inflection point and you know this would not be the right time to look at altering kind of the licensing model around tablets, but we will continue to monitor the marketing and see where things go. On the QCT operating margin, yes we do expect it to be above 20% at the end of the year. As we said in our of guidance coming out the analyst meeting that the we see 20 to 22 moving from an 18% to 20% regime to more of a 20% to 22%-type operating margin. We might not get there in '15 as we indicated on at that time because the dynamics around the supply chain for 20 nanometer devices, so we will see how that plays out. We are still confident we can meet with an 18% to 20% range, but we haven't taken '15 up yet in line with our long-term view.
Steve Mollenkopf:
This is Steve. On the three-mode, five-mode, we have designs on both and we actually have the ability to do on the same chip, so we are prepared, whichever way that goes.
Don Rosenberg:
Ehud, this is Don. I think, you are the only that's fiddled four of us in one question. Notice and all four of us one question so, I think you know the answer. I can't give you more detail than is included in our Q. We have done that and you can see over the time that this has been subject of the Q, we have been fairly consistent with what we've described in that continues until this day and again read the Q. You will get a sense there, but we are still obviously in the middle of this process so am unable to give you any more details on what we concluded there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Stacy Rasgon with Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein:
Hi, guys. Thanks for my questions. I think, I have three, so the first one I'm trying to wrap my head around the shortfall again in December. Some are push out in LTE. I can kind of buy it March maybe, but in December unless you had a sizable amount of LTE phones in China in your guidance or there is a significant amount of cannibalization of TDS CDMA aiding into WCDMA. I am not quite how the logicals given the timing of subscribers 40 subscribers in China. I don't know why you have had a large amount of 4G phones in your guidance for December quarter shipments. I am not sure how a bunch more TDS CDMA shipments on China Mobile cannibalizes in China Unicom and Telecom unless there are - I am having a hard time seeing how subscribers are moving over and mass in front of what would eventually be the 4G launch. Why wouldn't they just stay where they were? Second question, you talked about an upward bias originally to units forecast and now it sounds like you are taking that off the table, which you are pushing it in to 2015. I think the impression you had given before was with your basement was conservative and then that you have that potential upward bias and it doesn't sound like - it sounds like, where China is coming in so far is actually the low for our base line was any commentary you can give on that would be helpful. Then finally on OpEx, this was the second quarter in a row you have pushed OpEx out. That's great. Actually that would take EPS guidance down to the back How much room is there I guess to have continued control on OpEx and can those cuts kind of be permanent? Does that OpEx eventually have to get spent as it pushed into the back half? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, this is Derek. Let me try your first question. Really, let me try to break into quarter, so I think there was a few different dynamics which were playing out over different periods of time in China. In the December quarter, again, which I think this is pretty consistent with know the data that's come out of China since December. Really, we believe it was more of a slowdown of the 3G device sales, kind of a pause in the purchase cycle from folks that anticipated LTE launching a little bit earlier than it did in '14, so there was that slowdown at that point. Then when you shift over into maybe at the tail end of the December quarter, but really in earnest in the March quarter, I think the realization that the subsidy dollars were going to go away as it related to the TDS CDMA devices. There was this window in which the OEMs really decide to aggressively push the TDS CDMA devices and those tend to be, I mean, they are kind of a broad portfolio, but they certainly create quite a bit of competition against China Unicom, China Telecom in the mid to low tier, so when TDS CDMA does well, it does have an impact on the volumes by the other operators in China, so it's really sort of the two effects there. Then again I think most less expected the ramp to move little bit more quickly on LTE and for variety of reasons that's pushed out a bit, yet again all indications from the supply chain are that everybody is aggressively getting ready for that to happen very shortly. On the units guide, we said last quarter that we thought there were some upside to that and really what we are saying is that with the push out in timing that really it's more backend loaded, so we would probably be a little more cautious in our view, but we are holding guidance. In terms of OpEx, the teams have done a very good job of looking for opportunities to defer, reduce wherever we can. We do have some things that we know we are going to have to get to on the product roadmap and also on some supply chain initiatives and just some general cost escalations, so we will be coming up a little bit, but I would say that we are going to be still meeting our objective of only being up 6% year-over-year and exiting the year at a lower run rate in OpEx, coming out of '14 than we had going into '14 and that's for the whole company and for QCT.
Steve Mollenkopf:
This is Steve. Just one more note really on the units is that if you look at the units in QCT, they are probably up actually relative to what it would have been a quarter ago, and I think that's indicative of some strength across different OEMs as the mix has moved around a bit, so they are up and actually it has been really strong and that gives us some confidence also to make the statements that we made with respect to the full-year calendar numbers which is really where George's comments went to, so we are seeing an up uplift on units in the next semiconductor business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani - Bank of America:
Hi, guys. Hopefully you can hear me. I have three quick questions. First, if I am right then the tax rate goes down from 18% to 15% on a permanent basis, if you can clarify it? Second, have you seen any impact of China litigation on your discussions for QCT business in China? Is there any correlation between the two or not at all if you can discuss the puts and takes? The last part is going back to comment about the QCT margin, you spoke about - you said hope you can maintain 18% to 20%, what are the projects that would bring your QCT margins or what are the investments that you may need to make that would bring the QCT margins below the current target and what are the projects or the conditions that would bring it above, so we have kind of the full range? Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
On tax rate, it's 15% actually in the quarter, but that includes a catch up from the agreement for the first quarter. I would say the baseline run rate that we seeing today based on the agreement would come down about 1% and we had forecasted in roughly 17% or 19% just under 18% for the year. That's coming down now to 60% but some of that is the effect of the one-time element. Now I'll remind you that does not include any benefit for the benefit for the R&D tax credit, which would have an effect when and if it is renewed and we are also seeing a little bit benefit this year from the mix effects on the tax rate because we are seeing a little bit more revenue in QCT relative to QTL for all the reasons we discussed earlier on the call and that has a positive impact on the tax rates for the year, so 16% is sort of the baseline run rate for the year, little below that in the second quarter. With respect to the China litigation, I would say it's hard to say really. I think there's technology leadership tends to jump most concerns actually and that's what we are seeing. In fact if anything in that market we are seeing probably more concern about our ability to be able to supply as much as we have. We are probably fighting more demand than less demand I guess and trying to make sure that we can be supply given how quickly the people are ramping up the desire to chipsets which is helpful. On the QCT margin, I think the main thing to take away is it's going the way that the plan we laid out in fact I am very pleased with the organization being able to shift and be able to do that things that are applying pressure, I mean, we do see the opportunity to work on our supply chain both, from a supply assurance but also from a cost perspective and we are interested in making sure that those things happen, but the main thing is I think we have good visibility into how that's going to layout and it's going according to plan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes. Hi. Thanks, guys. Thanks for taking my question. This is Ashwin on behalf of Rod. Steve, I think questions are primarily aimed at you. The first one is on basebands. In light of recent reports that major vendors trying to produce their own basebands, I would be interesting to know how open are you to license your based band designs for probably a lower price, but better margins. Do you think there will be a big long-term business opportunity for you? Also, it would be interesting to get your comments on the performance of Snapdragon 808.10 versus like an Intel i5 chip that primarily goes into laptop, if you could provide any color on, where we have more ARM chips shipping into laptops that would be good.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. On the baseband side, it's actually not a new trend for people to kick off their own baseband designs. The history of that is that tend not to be successful in particular are not terribly successful at the leading technology tier. That's really where the majority of the margin is and we have been able to maintain and I would submit that's it's actually probably harder to do that today than it would've been in the past just because technology is moving and it's moving across multiple mode, so I don't know if I see that as the biggest concern right now. We have not entertained a licensing model so far and it's actually quite difficult to do with the modem unlike and something like an ARM core or CPU or graphics, because there's so much technology and so much fieldwork that you have to do to make sure that those things work globally. In fact that's one of the areas that helps us are just our global scale. It is very difficult for people to repeat even if they are large OEMs, so that's one of the things complicates doing a licensing model. It has not been really one of our strategies moving forward on the baseband. In terms of performance relative to some of the others on the tablet side, we feel very good about that actually. If you look at our power performance, we feel good but then also the name of the game there is really performance and feature set across a wide range of technologies. They have to look at things across the entire multimedia camera graphics modem connectivity and CPU and people tend to compete with us on one or two of those factors, usually just one but not across all of them and that's really what's important in the phone space and important in the tablet space. One of the things that we are hopeful for down the road, it's consistent with my remarks is that Microsoft putting Office Suite on OSs other than Windows that really opens up I think the tablet device to be more than just a media consumption device and it becomes much more of a productivity device, so we are anxiously awaiting that the results of how the market excepts that, so we tend to think of our position from the smartphone is being the place to attack the tablet market versus the other way around when we look at it, so we feel pretty good actually where our product family looks relative to those aspects.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Blayne Curtis - Barclays:
Good afternoon, guys. Three quick questions. First, on the supply constrains that you mentioned, does that clear up in the quarter and if you could just provide any color if possible on where you are seeing the constraints. Then you talked about 30% LTE adoption only seven carriers on interrogation, so I am assuming those volumes are small, do you see any material uptick this calendar year there you talked about how much that in terms of additional [content] and whether accretive to margins. Then finally the comments on Wi-Fi of those 250 wins, if you could give any color of approximate how many are shipping today. Thanks.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sure. On supply constraints, I really mentioned, it's something that's cleared up actually in this quarter and we are I think well ahead of it now, but I really mentioned it to provide color as to the demand picture in China. We are seeing significant ramp up demand, and the way the China market works, it tends to have a little bit less headway or lead time relative to some of the other markets and it's also the way that that new product launches are intense technology launches work, so I mentioned that not to highlight a problem, but more to highlight the intensity of the demand picture in LTE, but that does get cleared up in the quarter as I said. In terms of a carrier aggregation, it really is the key feature set. This year and although I only you have only mentioned mention seven tiers, they tend to be the carriers that pushed number one a lot of volume, they also push the key design win, so North America, Korea, Japan and Europe are dealing with very complicated spectrum allocation pictures and they tend to be the places that determine where key designs are won or lost, so the number of carriers are growing, but also the significance of those carriers is actually probably more than just one on the scale of one, so we tend to do well. That' tends to be like any new modem feature something that helps our margins and that we have a whole list of them of them that are coming out, so that's really what we have been good at doing. On Wi-Fi a lot of them are shipping. If you think about our Wi-Fi business, it's really an extension of our platform business, so if you look at the tiers from the low tiers moving up, we have been steadily increasing the attach rate of our Wi-Fi in fact with the exception of a small number of flagship devices. I think we are closing even that window as well, so pretty pleased with what's happening with Wi-Fi. I think long-term, you are going to see Wi-Fi moves a triplet, we are going to have a high-end AP, the high-end mode feature set and the high-end connectivity feature set traveling together as a triplet and we feel like we are in a unique position to provide that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Mark McKechnie with Evercore. Please go ahead with your question. Mark, your line is open. Please make sure that your line is not on mute.
Mark McKechnie - Evercore:
Okay. Thanks. Here I am. I appreciate it. First question for Derek on China, can you comment what percentages of royalties that you get from China, just kind of high level?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Sorry, Mark, I am not sure I fully understood the question. You are saying what is the royalty rate in our deals with the Chinese?
Mark McKechnie - Evercore:
No, what's the mix of the overall revenue base to China, I mean, is it I am just kind of curious to get a sense for how much of an impact that had on your outlook.
Steve Mollenkopf:
Yes. We haven't really got into a disclosure of a breakdown of revenue by region, I think, for QTL specifically. I think you have decent sense of where the selling prices are in the region and in the units and probably can sort of try to back calculate where that ends up, but we haven't provided that specific guidance point in the past.
Operator:
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further before turning the call?
Steve Mollenkopf:
Well, I just want to thank everybody for being on the call today and I know it's probably been a little bit different shape of the year 2014 in the mix of QTL and QCT, but I think we tend to be very enthusiastic about the future and we are doing I think the things that we need to do to position the business broadly into what is I think unique set of opportunities if you look at the growth of smartphones in China and LTE in China and really the growth of those same technologies into adjacent markets. We feel like we are really doing the right things to be well positioned, so I appreciate everybody being on the call and we will talk to you again next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Warren Kneeshaw - Vice President of Investor Relations Paul Jacobs - Executive Chairman of the Board Steven Mollenkopf - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director George Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President Derek Aberle - Executive Vice President, Group President Don Rosenberg - Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary
Analysts:
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs Romit Shah - Nomura Ehud Gelblum - Citi Rod Hall - JPMorgan Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse Mark McKechnie - Evercore Tavis McCourt - Raymond James Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the QUALCOMM First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 29, 2014. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers, please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 31476192. I would now like to turn the call over to Warren Kneeshaw, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kneeshaw, please go ahead.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Dr. Paul Jacobs; Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Derek Aberle and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. An Internet presentation and audio broadcast is accompanying this call and you can access them by visiting our website at www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, if we use non-GAAP financial measures defined in Regulation G, you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I would also like to direct you to our 10-Q and earnings release, which were filed and furnished respectively with the SEC today and are available on our website. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or company results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K and 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Now, I would like to introduce QUALCOMM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Paul Jacobs.
Paul Jacobs:
Thank you, Warren, and good afternoon, everyone. We are off to a solid start in fiscal 2014, and we are pleased to report record revenues this quarter driven by strong growth in both, QTC and QTL. Steve will provide more color on the businesses, but I did want to comment on the executive changes we recently announced. First, I am extreme pleased that Steve Mollenkopf will become our next Chief Executive Officer. He is an exceptional leader with a stellar track record over his 20 years at QUALCOMM. Throughout his tenure, he has played a critical role in developing a number of new technologies and strengthen our relationships with our industry partners. This change will ensure management continuity, will allow me to work on new technologies and help set the future direction for the company as Executive Chairman of the Board. I look forward to continuing to work closely with Steve and the rest of management team. Secondly, I wanted to thank our employees, customers and suppliers for their support over my tenure as CEO. We have seen tremendous change over the last almost nine years, I began my services CEO, we were predominantly known as the CDMA2000 Company. Fast-forward to today and we have developed a broadly license and diversified portfolio of technologies not only from an air interface perspective, but also in many other mobile technologies such as computing and connectivity, with an industry-leading approach of integrating these core technologies that define the mobile experience. Looking back, we had a vision for what a smartphone could be and we worked together with our partners to bring this vision to reality. Really dates back to the early 90s, when we had the idea to put the Internet protocols in to CDMA. We really knew that data will unlock tremendous opportunities for mobile devices. We were the first to put GPS in phones. We developed the first Palm OS based smartphone. We were pioneers in the mobile apps space with our Brew Appstore and we continue to lead with innovation such as first gigahertz smartphone processor and obviously more recently advanced multimedia technologies such as Ultra HD video capture and playback. Looking forward, opportunities are vast. We work with our partners to help them expand their data capacity by up to 1,000 fold with solutions such as our small cells and other innovations such as LTE in unlicensed spectrum. We are helping to drive adoption of mobile technologies into several exciting new categories including automotive, healthcare and the connected home through our industry leading mobile computing connectivity offerings. And the AllSeen Alliance was recently formed to drive interoperability for the Internet of everything which is based on the use of the AllJoyn software framework. Now this industry leadership and vision has translated into strong business performance with revenues more than quadrupling and EPS more than tripling since Fiscal 2005. In addition, we have returned over $25 billion in capital to stockholders during this timeframe and recently announced our intent to return 75% of free cash flow to stockholders. We expect that we will more than double the amount returned to stockholders over the next five years as compared to the last five years. So we continue to be extremely excited about the future, but still in the early rounds of global smartphone adoption, we are in the early rounds of the transition to mobile computing and then we have this broad connection of the Internet of everything. So we have the right technologies and more importantly we have the team to execute on these opportunities ahead. So we are pleased with the start fiscal 2014 and I look forward to continue to work with our team to drive growth in the years ahead. Thank you and I will now turn the call over to Steven Mollenkopf.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Good afternoon, and thank you, Paul. I appreciate your kind words. I am humbled and extremely honored to have been named CEO elective of QUALCOMM. Under Paul's tenure as CEO, the company has established a leadership position in 3G, 4G and next-generation wireless technologies, developed a deep and diverse set of industry-leading mobile technologies and has generated extraordinary results. We are well-positioned to address the significant opportunities ahead and I look forward to guiding the company during its next phase of growth. Paul, I would like to thank you for your leadership and mentorship and I look forward to continuing to work closely with you in the years ahead. I am proud to have been given this opportunity and I look forward to assuming the CEO role in March. Turning to our fiscal first-quarter. Our QTL and QCT delivered strong financial results and we are off to a solid start to fiscal 2014. In the quarter, we also returned approximately $1.6 billion to shareholders in dividends and buyback activity, consistent with the increased capital return targets that we outlined in November. QTL had a strong quarter, in line with our expectations with revenue and earnings before tax of 8% and 9% respectively, year-over-year. Total reported device sales by our licensees was a record and above the midpoint of our prior guidance range. Global smartphone adoption continues to be a key driver of royalty revenue growth. In the fiscal first quarter we saw increased sequential shipments by our licensees of smartphones in emerging regions. According to Gartner, emerging regions smartphone shipments are expected to grow at close to 30% CAGR between 2012 and 2017. Globally, Gartner expects approximately 7 billion smartphones to be shipped from 2013 to 20 17. In QCT, revenues and MSM shipments were up 12% and 17% year-over-year respectively MSM shipments were above our expectations driven by demand in emerging regions. Actions taken to manage spending contributed to better than expected operating margins. From an operating expense standpoint, our outlook for moderate year-over-year growth remains on track. We are still investing in both the core businesses and new business opportunities and with our expense management initiatives this year, we continue to forecast that we will exit fiscal 2014 at a lower operating expense run rate for the company than we exited fiscal 2013. Tuning to China. We are pleased to see that the 4G spectrum licenses have now been issued. We are working closely with the operators as well as domestic and international OEMs to meet this new growth opportunity. We continue to add single mode OFDMA licensees including in China. Given the high degree of similarity between the TDD and FDD modes of the international LTE standard and our position as the leading contributor to LTE, the royalty payable by our licensees under their single mode or OFDMA licenses are the same for devices that implement either or both of the TDD and FDD modes of LTE. QUALCOMM continues to invest heavily in developing the leading and the most widely licensed portfolio of patented technologies applicable to 3G and 4G devices. For QTC, the growth of LTE, FDD and TDD in China aligns with our strength, both from supporting local Chinese OEMs looking to leverage LTE and build their business outside of China, as well as global OEMs hoping to leverage LTE growth to grow their businesses in China. For each of these customer types, our multi-mode 3G LTE modem leadership and Snapdragon solutions, combined with our global launches position us well. We have over 70 3G LTE multi-mode designs with leading Chinese OEMs based on our Snapdragon 400 chipsets for the high-volume handset tier. We believe the recently announced Snapdragon 410 with integrated LTE will also be the world's first 64-bit processor for the high-volume tier and will establish our 64-bit leadership there. On the legal front, as we previously announced in November, the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission or NDRC, notified us that it had commenced an investigation of us related to the Chinese Anti-monopoly Law. The NDRC has advised us that the substance of the investigation is confidential. We will continue to cooperate with the NDRC as it conduct its investigation. Globally, the momentum of Snapdragon-based devices continues to grow, with over 1,350 designs announced for shipping and more than 500 designs in the pipeline, including over 40 tablets. We are pleased with our design activity and anticipate good volume growth in flagship tablets, such as the new LG G Pad tablet, the Samsung Galaxy Note Pro and the Samsung Galaxy Tab Pro announced at CES. Looking ahead, our newly announced next-generation chipsets are progressing well and continue to demonstrate our leadership. Since Snapdragon to go five sets a new bar for performance and premium tablets and smartphones with end-to-end Ultra HD capability and the world's fastest mobile CPU. It is on track to ship in commercial devices in the first half of this calendar year and will help our customers take advantage of the increasing interest in Ultra HD across the entertainment and consumer electronics industries. Our new 9x35 modem delivers our fourth generation of LTE, and is on track to extend our LTE leadership into Category 6. We have already demonstrated the world's first 300 megabits per second LTE Category 6 data session on Ericsson infrastructure and we expect to see our Category 6 modem in the cards, hotspots and smartphones this year. Our overall Wi-Fi sales are strong and growing, with unit sales this quarter up 50% year-over-year and we have over 200 designs of our premium 802.11 AC solution in the pipeline. Our RF 360 family of products also continues to progress well. Our envelope tracking solution has been shipping for a number of months and is in key devices such as the Samsung Galaxy Note 3, the Google Nexus 5 and the LTE Nubia 5S. Our dynamic antenna tuner recently launched in flagship Lumia 1520 and remaining RF 360 products are on track to ship later this fiscal year as expected. In closing, we are off to a solid start in the first fiscal quarter and we see the year developing broadly in line with our previous expectations. That conclude my remarks and I would now like to turn the call over to George Davis.
George Davis:
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter results came in above expectations on solid operating performance and the positive net impact of certain discrete items. Fiscal first-quarter revenues were a record $6.6 billion, up 10% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share was $1.26 above our prior guidance range. Our results this quarter included a $655 million gain or $0.25 per share related to the sale of substantially all of our Omnitracs business. We also recorded a $444 million impairment or $0.20 per share in other expenses related to the fab assets in our QMT business. The remaining items in other expenses impacted results by an additional $0.01 per share. In total, these items added a net $0.04 per share gain to results. Excluding these items, our non-GAAP EPS would be $1.22 per share or $0.07 above the midpoint of guidance and $0.02 above the high-end of our guidance range. Result in QCT and in our treasury portfolio was a major contributor to above expectation performance. In QTL, total reported device sales by our licenses were a record $61.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year and above the mid-point of our guidance range, with an average selling price of $222 at the mid-point and shipments of $278 million 3G/4G based devices at the mid-point. We saw strength in both emerging and developed regions with increased penetration of smartphones into lower tiers. Emerging regions continue to show the highest unit growth rates for 3G/4G based devices. QCT earnings before tax were above expectations with record revenues of $4.6 billion and record shipments of 213 million MSMs. Revenue per MSM was lower sequentially reflecting a higher mix of thin modems and increased MSM shipments for emerging regions. QCT operating margin was 20% in the fiscal first quarter above our prior expectations reflecting actions to manage spending in the quarter. For the company overall, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were below our guidance decreasing 3% sequentially primarily driven by our QCT business. Turning to capital structure. During the fiscal first quarter, we returned approximately $1.6 billion to stockholders including approximately $600 million of dividends paid and $1 billion in stock purchases. As of the end of the first fiscal quarter, we had approximately $3.8 billion remaining of the $5 billion stock repurchase authorization announced in September of last year. Cash flow from operations was very strong again this quarter at approximately $2.8 billion or 42% of revenues. Timing of shipments in Q4 and Q1 led to a higher than normal reduction in receivables which was the major factor in our above trend working capital and cash flow performance. We ended the fiscal quarter with cash and marketable securities of $31.6 billion. Now turning to our guidance for fiscal 2014. Our outlook for the fiscal year is mostly unchanged but we are increasing our earnings per share guidance to adjust for the above expectation performance in the fiscal first quarter, modestly tempered by a somewhat softer outlook in our fiscal second quarter. We expect fiscal 2014 non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $5 to $5.20, up approximately 13% year-over-year at the midpoint relative to 2013 and up $0.05 at the midpoint from our prior guidance. As it is still very early in the year we are also holding our forecast for calendar 2014 3G/4G based device shipments, however we do see some potential upside to our forecast perfectly related to LTE deployment in China. We are also holding the midpoint of our calendar 2013 3G/4G device shipment estimate, although modestly narrowing the range. As we outlined in November, we forecast improving trends in the second half of our fiscal year versus the first half. We expect higher device ASPs for QTL and a better mix of leading parts in QCT including the impact of LTE in China. We also continue to forecast favorable trends in product cost. For the second quarter of fiscal 2014, we estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $6.1 billion to $6.7 billion, flat to up approximately 9% year-over-year. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share in our fiscal second quarter to be approximately $1.15 to $1.25 per share, up 3% year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate second fiscal quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be slightly higher, up 1% to 3% sequentially, reflecting modest growth in R&D. In QTL, we estimate total reported device sales of $66.5 billion to $72.5 billion, it will be reported by licensees in the March quarter for shipments that they made in the December quarter, up approximately 14% year-over-year at the midpoint reflecting the busy holiday season. We estimate that the QTL device ASP will be relatively flat sequentially. In QCT, we anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 180 million to 195 million units during the March quarter down 12% at the midpoint sequentially and up approximately 8% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect revenue per MSM to be up modestly on mix quarter-over-quarter. We expect QCT operating margin to be approximately 15% in the fiscal second quarter, lower sequentially as expected, reflecting the impact of lower seasonal volumes and the effects of annual pricing resets typical for this time of the year. We continue to forecast QCT operating margins to be 18% to 20% for the full fiscal year. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Warren.
Warren Kneeshaw:
Thank you, George. Brent, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets:
Thank you. [Two] you mind if I could. Maybe could you give us some update? It looks again the calculator went down a little bit more. Was there anything in there, we are hitting more tabs what's going on with that? Then secondly, if we could just get your perspective on China, collecting in China, particular as it seems like there has been a lot more three-mode products being announced relative to the five-mode? Do you think that changes the dynamic at all in collecting with the Chinese OEMs? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Tim, this is Derek. On the rate question, I think again we have kind of gone through a numbers of times all the factors that move this thing around. This quarter, it's sort of a combination and probably for the few things you know TRDS obviously was up again another record, so again we get a little bit of a drag based on the fixed elements of the revenue. Also, you know, I think just given sort of the product launches there were some discounting going on during this quarter that impacted the deductions that our licensees take and so that has also an impact as I explained in New York a couple of months ago. Then a little bit of OEM mix again, so a number things bounce around. I do think based on the visibility we have into next quarter that the rate should improve some into next quarter and we still believe kind of the range that we gave for the year is still where we think we are going to end up in and that was I think 31 to 33. On China, really I think not much of a change from again what we went through in New York. Again, we are very active. We are continuing to negotiate agreements on single mode OFDM in China and we added some additional licensees to the mix here over the last quarter. We got a number of other discussions ongoing and expect some other agreements to get signed here hopefully in the next couple of months, so I think we are just continuing to do the work that we started several years ago to make sure we are in a position to collect and still feel comfortable that that will be the case.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Walkley Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Walkley - Canaccord Genuity:
Great. Thank you. Paul, just wanted to say congratulations on a great job of navigating some tough time this year with all those renegotiations a few years back. Steve, I just want to ask questions to you about the QCT operating margins. Doctor and the teams here in Q1 just seasonality, but can you talk about how you feel on the cost optimization programs and some of the steps that gives you confidence the recovery in the second half of the year. Thank you.
Paul Jacobs:
Thanks a lot. I certainly hope we don't see anything like that, for Steve is starting his tenure. It was, I think, a lot of people decided that was time to test our management team and it wasn't the most fun thing to go through but it was good to get it behind us and also the to see with all the stuff that's going on in the world in terms of litigation that we are no not in the middle of a lot of that stuff. We are actually partners with a lot of those companies that we had battles with in the old days. So its nice to see that change. But thanks for saying that.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Mike, this is Steve. With respect to the Op margin, if I look at the year, particularly as the year, first-half, second-half, its unfolding basically the way that we thought it would. I think Q1 was pretty strong and I think particularly strong actually in the emerging markets which we were pleased to see. So I think we are still confident in our outlook in terms of that Op margin guidance that we gave in November. Just pleased to have a good quarter in the book in order to head our direction. As you know there's always some seasonality in this quarter. I don't think we are seeing anything more than that really in what you are seeing in the outlook.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead with your question.
Tal Liani - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys. I have two questions. First is, what was impact of foreign exchange on the numbers in the guidance or if you can explain given the broader picture of hedging and the impact on the P&L? And then secondly, when I look at your number for next quarter, they are below street expectations somewhat. When I look at your numbers for the year, you have brought them up and that means that you expect a second-half recovery in EPS or second-half recovery in the trends. Could you go over the reasons for second-half acceleration versus the previous expectations and what stands behind the increase in EPS? Thanks.
George Davis:
Sure. This is George. Let me start off with the FX impact. We had a modestly positive impact in the in the first quarter. As you know, really most of our exposure comes from our licensing business and we have hedging programs in place to help us with that. We expect that the full year again to be modestly positive after our hedging programs but FX has not been a major impact for us over the last couple of years. In terms of the second quarter and the full year, really actually the year is pretty much playing out in line with our expectations. A little bit more positive in the first quarter but we are seeing a little more softness in the second quarter. Net net, the first half looks about as we said in the second half that really were not calling for anything other than the same environment that we expected going into the year. We have said that we think that whether you are looking at devices or you are looking at potential sales around the world, China LTE looks like an area where there may be, depending on the timing, there might be some benefit, more benefit the hits our fiscal year which as you know closes out a quarter before of the calendar year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Modoff for Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Brian Modoff - Deutsche Bank:
Yes, guys. A couple of them. So at the beginning of the call, you talked about being in the early rounds of smartphone adoption growth and can you kind of give a little more color around that, looking at what we are seeing from a maturation standpoint in places like the U.S. but growth in the emerging markets and how do you see that playing out in terms your ASP trends? Second question. Steve, each of your main competitors in LTE in the last nine months has gone outside their company to acquire technology to try to compete with you in that market and none of them have really come to market with a product of any scale. Can you talk about what you see for LTE competition in the year. And then Paul, just briefly, can you give us a rundown of some of your focuses in terms of your venture ideas or venture investments as you move on to your next role? Thank you.
Derek Aberle:
Brian, this is Derek. Let me answer your first question. Obviously we look at the market as a whole which we break up in developed and emerging regions. Yet while it's true that there is a fair amount of maturation of smartphone adoption in the developed regions, we do still think that there's a lot of things coming that will drive replacement cycles there and then bring the last bit of the tail over, but then when you look at emerging regions, there are still a huge runway for growth there, so I think when we look at it in totality, although the areas where we probably spend most of our time seems like the smartphone space is well penetrated there is still a huge opportunity for us in the emerging regions.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Brian, this is Steve. On LTE, yes, I think what we have seen a lot of folks are, obviously, working on LTE. We are continuing to see strong design-in activity and I think what's happening we had an early lead we are driving it across tiers. At the same time, the feature set is turning over, and one of the things that has been important for us, we since day one of our LTE solution we have had the TDD mode in there. That's been, I think, exceedingly important in terms of being able to grow our business into China, which is a good thing, but also what we are seeing in China the effect where people want to use the LTE solution that, number one, has maturity and feature leadership, but also gives them the ability to deliver a product outside of China and to become a global smartphone OEM and not just a regional smartphone OEM, so I think we are continuing to stay ahead of people in terms of technology and certainly maturity and scale, but the things that we bring seem to also be more important as well, so we hope that continues. We are going to continue to invest in that area as it has been our practice.
Paul Jacobs:
…I am going to look at in the future and obviously there is a whole set of projects that we have favorite continue to invest in that area as has been our practice and so on the familiar look at the images and obviously visible set of projects that we have going on right now - think it will be nice to spend a little bit more time hands-on with those projects and hopefully it can help accelerate some of the those coming to market. Then sort of farther out stuff that we haven't talked a lot about yet and everybody is talking about 5G already, I think we have some good ideas for what 5G should be and the kinds of things that it should do in addition to just being faster and more spectrum and more bandwidth and those things, so I got some good projects ahead of me.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Simona Jankowski with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs:
Hi. Thanks very much and I want to congratulate both of you, Paul and Steve on the new roles. I just wanted to ask you first about your guidance as it pertains to QTL and device sales in particular. It was relatively strong even though we have seen some of the major OEMs actually come in with slightly lower than expected results for the December quarter, so I was just wondering if you can go into some of the drivers for that. Is it emerging market? Is it tablets or any other categories. Then relative to your unit guidance for MSM chipsets in the March quarter, it's a bit below seasonal and I just wanted to dig into that a little more if it has anything to do with market share or inventory or end demand, if you can just give us a bit of color there as well. Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Simona, this is Derek. Why don't I start and if George wants to jump in and add something he can. As you know, we at this stage, we get a fair amount of visibility in from our licensees typically before we provide guidance, so we do have a reasonable amount of confidence in the guide that we have provided for the December quarter sales. I think it is again a blending, we are seeing a lot of strength in the emerging regions, continue see strength in places like China. Although there was little softness, I think in the in the U.S., some of the other developed regions, it continue to do well such as Europe and I think we are probably going to see a little stronger tablet uptake as well and there are evidence of that coming out of some of the statements Verizon and AT&T made this last week.
George Davis:
On the MSM front, I think what we are seeing and it's one of the reasons why we didn't update the number for MSMs for the full year. We think there were some of the benefit that we saw on Q1 were MSM that were being pulled in, so maybe a little bit of a timing issue between Q2 and Q1, but again overall the first half of the year looks very much like we thought it would and second-half the same, so probably not a lot of news in those numbers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura. Please go ahead with your question.
Romit Shah - Nomura:
Yes. Thanks a lot. You basically reiterated guidance for the full year revenues, but year is turning out to be a little bit backend loaded than I was thinking. June is historically flat, which if that plays out again, would imply that September is up, north of 10% sequentially. Is that the right way to think about the rest of the year? That's my first question. Then second. Steve, China Mobile indicated, I believe, in December that they expect to sell 100 million LTE devices. That number seems like it is overstated but I wanted to get your thoughts on that. Thank you.
Paul Jacobs:
So on the first-half, second-half, again all I can say is, and we spent some time on this in the original guidance, the year does look a little bit different than the historical pattern with more of the earnings coming in the second half. We still believe that is the case and also you get a slightly higher revenue rate in the second half of the year. So I think in terms of any specific quarter, it is too early to comment beyond our second-quarter guidance but that's why when we raised our guidance, it really was more just to reflect the outperformance in Q1 than a fundamental change in first-half and second-half.
Steven Mollenkopf:
This is Steve. On the China Mobile forecast for devices. My guess is if I remember correctly, that was a calendar year number. It is difficult for me to comment on the numbers but I will say that the intensity with the industry is getting prepared for the launch of LTE is quite high. If you look at our designing intensity and you look at the preparations that we are going through with carriers, it is consistent with the big launch of that scale. Now it's always difficult, as we have said before, to pick when those things happen and the start of a new launch is always difficult to pick, particularly as early as it is but we expect that to be a big, pretty significant launch when it occurs and we are going to be prepared for it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ehud Gelblum with Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Ehud Gelblum - Citi:
Hi, guys. I appreciate it. Thanks. A question for you on China. Is there a reason that China Mobile having said they are going to test three mode phones rather than five modes? Is there any reason that your royalty rates on three mode phones will be different than on a five mode phone, obviously due to some difference because of the lack of 3G but, if you can get us a sense as the difference between those two? On that note, then also, if the share of TD-LTE China Mobile ends up being, say, roughly similar share wise to what 3G looks like right now in China, given that you count a lot of the major Chinese players like Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Coolpad as good customers of yours, and I presume therefore paying whatever royalty that they do pay you, if they end up getting the similar shares in the TD-LTE world as that develops, can you give us a sense as to what would that mean for the royalty rates that you collect on LTE? And then, you made a comment, Steve, I think that there is a higher percentage of thin modems sold, or George, you may have said that, thin modems sold this quarter, and that's what effected the ASP on your MSMs. Is that a trend you are seeing as nonintegrated chips in smartphones or is that an indication that 3G/4G feature phones are making a comeback? Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Hi, this is Derek. Let me answer your first question. We have talked a lot about some of the challenges we have had with collecting on TD-SCDMA in China and the things that we have been doing to either push things like five mode, so that there is WCDMA in the device or also the move to LTE should be a good one for us. So our 3G deals would cover anything that you called a five mode and in fact in many cases would cover the phones that are three mode. So absent the challenges we have had around TD-SCDMA, we wouldn't really have a need to negotiate new deals on those but like I said, we are signing a number of companies to the LTE licenses and so as we talked about we do expect the rate on what we call the single mode LTE device to be lower than 3G. Although I spent some time going through that in New York, if you recall, in terms of trying to explain the delta between the 3G and 4G royalty picture as a whole based on the companies that were signed up so far, so maybe you can go back and think about that. I can't really specifically comment on any particular licensee or any particular agreement and obviously we are going to have to see how the market develops in terms of the three-mode versus five-mode adoption and who are the suppliers that get share moving forward.
Steven Mollenkopf:
This is Steve, so just one follow-up on that question by the way. I think what you are going to see in China Mobile, because it's so big and because the launch is likely to happen across tiers, you are going to get a lot of attraction from international OEMs using their LTE expertise worldwide to exploit that technology change. At the same time, I think you are going to see domestic OEMs looking to leverage their strength in China to the international OEMs. Both of those trends, we think, are positive to our core businesses, which I think is important. With respect your high or to the number about the thin modems, I don't think is really a trend. I would say the vast majority of our chipsets are actually shipped as integrated and that's really what most people do in the industry. What you are probably seeing is just sort of concentration of some of the OEMs that used in modems and how that might be associated with particular phone launches in the timing of those phone launches through the year as opposed to a trend.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
Stacy Rasgon - Sanford Bernstein:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, I just wanted to dig in a little bit. You are guiding QTL ASPs for December shipments flattish. You saw upside on chipsets, so that shift in the December quarter from the low-end, how do I reconcile those two things, upside from chipsets and December low-end versus guidance for device shipments in December ASPs flattish. Secondly, in the current quarter, the quarter just past you had ASPs down, but a lot of unit outside which would imply a lot of growth at the lower end. What is it actually imply for continued QRD traction? I think you had said last year the revenues in QRD were in the ballpark of $1 billion. Do we read into the results that we just saw continued traction with QRD or more traction with QRD than we have had?
Derek Aberle:
Stacy, this is Derek. I think that part of this might be a little bit of timing in terms of the chip shipments versus one of the devices actually gets sold into the market and reported to us, but we do see some strength in the emerging regions really driving the Q4 results as well. The ASP I think as we said last quarter, we expected this to be kind of in line in the calendar Q4 quarter versus Q3 and that's what we are expecting. We do expect the back half of the year, which is consistent I think with what we have seen in the last three years to be stronger from an ASP perspective just given the timing of some of the iconic product launches we expect to see here shortly.
Steven Mollenkopf:
Stacy, this is Steve. Regarding the QRD, we have had another good quarter for our emerging accounts. I would probably categorize that group of accounts. A lot of them use the QRD, but this is really a new channel that we had to develop over the years and with strong quarter for them in the December quarter and we expect that to continue to be a good channel for us moving forward, something we can we can also use our LTE leadership into as well, so we are pleased to be able to see the upside there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Rod Hall - JPMorgan:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple for you. I just wanted to go back to China and see if you guys could talk about two things more there. One is, maybe Derek, if can give us any idea what proportion of the potential LTE volume is licensed or some idea how far it's utilized in process for LTE you are there. Then and also maybe George, you could comment or someone could comment on the if there is any press ruling in China, how that plays our recruiting for potential fine there, when do we get more sort of I guess firmed up in terms of what the impact might be financially from that. Then lastly, Paul, I just wanted to ask you to give us an update on 1000x and just kind of where that is. I know guys have thought you might have some trial this year. I just wonder how that's progressing along and whether we will be doing trials on that this year. Thanks.
Derek Aberle:
Rod, this is Derek. Little bit of a hard to answer, but let me give it a shot. We have signed more 50, I think it's more than 55 companies now to LTE licenses in China, but actually I think large part of the volume initially here will be stuff that is actually covered by our 3G deal. Certainly the volumes that go to China Telecom, China Unicom, the five mode volumes at China Mobile and then also, as Steve mentioned, the international volumes that will be coming in to China likely will be of the same flavor. So its going to depend, like I said, we are continuing to be in discussions and find additional companies as we speak. So again, I think, we are on track to doing the things we needed to do. Without knowing exactly who is going to have what share and how this is all going to play out, I can't really give you any more granularity than that.
Don Rosenberg:
Rod, this is Don, and George may answer after me, but just to be clear, you talked about an antitrust ruling. There isn't any ruling in China. The articles that you read are speculating at this point. There is investigation. We have talked about that. We have been told by the NDRC that it is confidential but we are cooperating with them and we are going to continue to cooperate with them, and so at this point anything that anybody is saying is pure speculating at this point, while this proceeds.
George Davis:
One the 1,000x, obviously I don't want to announce other people's products, we are supporting the technology. We have obviously done a number of our own trials based of our own products but the traction with the customer base is good and so I feel confident that's continuing to move along and there's obviously a lot of dynamics in the operator market between operators who have a lot of spectrum, operators who have fixed network capabilities and so there are certain ones who will be, I would say, more the leaders and that we are focused on the driving opportunity with those people but it would be done through customers of ours who will deliver the product.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.
Kulbinder Garcha - Credit Suisse:
Thanks, Just a couple of questions, if I can. On the addressable market growth for the overall business of 15%, also unit growth, you guys are talking about, you mentioned I think George, that just you saw more upside to that number. I guess the things that we have heard suggest otherwise, in the sense that you had a number of large handset smartphone vendors, there is point near-term involvement give us a relatively cautious guidance and I understand the upside in China, so equally, China Mobile's network is only really rolling out now. It may take some time. the service pricing seems a bit on the expenses side. So I just kind of curious that there seems to be more kind of downside distance than three or four months, given those things we have learned than before. So what is that you are seeing that gives you the confidence you could see the upside as we go through this year? This is my first question on the addressable market and the confidence you have in that growth rate. And then, for Steve, is it the case that, I think, when you initially were rolling out LTE chips that they were meaningfully accretive to our ASP because of just the technology, the competition as well as the fact that you were selling more integrated devices and higher end Snapdragon chips. As we go through this year, will that level of accretion still hold, or do you guys have to become more aggrieve even if your peers aren't as competitive, just to kind of ensure that you really dominate that segment. How do you think about managing the business between those various levers? Thanks.
Paul Jacobs:
Sure. Let me start off with the size of the market and the outlook for '14. I try to leave the message that, if anything, we have a bias to the upside in these numbers and I think sometimes in the year-over-year comparison when you see the U.S. coming in a little bit softer than people may have expected, it's easy to lose the track of the very high growth rates, certainly well above 15%, 20% type growth rates in emerging markets. You are also seeing actually developed markets maintain overall their growth rates similar to what we saw '12 to '13, because you are seeing, on a year-over-year comparison, more strength in both Europe and Japan and while the rates may not be comparable to emerging market growth rates there, on a year-over-year basis, they contribute to our outlook. So in the upside, we would assign to how the LTE deployment in China plays out.
Steve Mollenkopf:
So with respect to LTE pricing. So you should really think of LTE as a tiered offering. In the leadership tier, the high-tier, it's a strong area for our pricing. We continue to have leadership there, we continue to drive there, but we expect the lower tier or more the entry-level LTE feature set to be important and we assumed that that's going to be have to be a priced at a different pricing level than will be one of the leaderships here. I would also just generally say that I think that the scale that will be built up in the LTE world will also spread to the developing market as well and provide I think some positive view on chipset ASP relative to what you see really like more commoditized 3G pricing in terms of the 3G chipset, so LTE it's definitely a tier, I think it something that provides some kind of an upward trend in terms of pricing for us relative to see in 3G.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark McKechnie with Evercore. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark McKechnie - Evercore:
Great. Thanks. A couple of quick question. You might have answered these before, but the chip QCT, you are looking at ASPs or pricing for those to trend up in the March quarter. Maybe you could explain a bit some of the drivers. Then for George, so housekeeping questions on your guidance specifically, how much interest income? There was a pretty big difference you did like $255 million of interest other expense. Usually would prefer to dwell on that, but that was a pretty big mover earnings. Any assumptions or can you give us a sense of what you are assuming on your guidance for the full year on that line item? Thanks.
Paul Jacobs:
Mark, thanks. I will start with your last question first and then I will get to the QCT ASP. On investment income. It's one of the things, actually the performance in the portfolio that we cited as part of adder to the outperformance in the first quarter. As we have been accelerating return of capital, we have a portfolio that has a broad range of risk and so we are starting to take that risk level down as we draw down more cash for repurchase, so you are seeing some gains embedded in the quarter associated with that. Again, maybe I would say above trend maybe, $0.02, $0.03 from that. I wouldn't count on that every quarter, that's really more a function of just making sure that we keep the risk level and the portfolio in the right place. For QCT, really what you are seeing is a little bit of a reversal of what you saw in Q1 which is that the mix particularly thin modems will not be quite as higher percent that gives a natural lift to the ASP.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Tavis McCourt - Raymond James:
Thanks for taking my question. First, a housekeeping question, George. The $1.26 non-GAAP earnings, does that include the Omnitracs sale and I was under the impression that the previous guidance and full-year guide excluded that sale. Just want to make sure we are talking apples-and-apples. Secondly, a question for Derek. It's been an interesting trend. Nokia has now sold their business and kept the patents. Ericsson did the same and now Google is doing the same. What I am wondering is, does that change the competitive dynamic of QTL at all having multiple patent pulls out there that aren't associated with devices? Thanks.
George Davis:
Okay. Let me cover the housekeeping. As we said, the Omni gain was always going to be in non-GAAP, but when we gave guidance, we treated it as a discrete item, so we guided excluding the discrete items. We also had another major discrete item, which was the impairment on the QMT asset, so the net effect of that was $0.05 and then there was about another $0.01 of items and other, so a net $0.04 benefit that's how when we talked our performance would have been $1.22 if not for those which is really the comparable apples-to-apples that you are looking for, so still $0.02 above the upper end of the guidance range and $0.07 over the midpoint?
Derek Aberle:
This is Derek. I don't think it really changes the competitive dynamic for QTL for our business. I think, we have obviously been very successful in establishing the value for our own portfolio in the marketplace and the fact that other companies may decide to come in and become more active doesn't really impact our value proposition, per se. Both Ericsson and Nokia have had active licensing programs for many years. The way that they have positioned and valued their patents won't simply change based on whether they have an active business. Now it might change any individual deal based on the relative exposure but again they have been active and I don't think there will be a major disruption or impact in the industry as a results of it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sue with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Sue - RBC Capital Markets:
Thank you. Paul, it's a matter of time before the smartphone market matures and it's one of the reasons that the stock multiplied over the last few years. As we look out over the next few years, what do you think will replace the smartphone market in terms of opportunity growth where QUALCOMM can really dominate similar to what they did in smartphones? If we look at tablets, for example, the attach rates have been low because of the pricey data plans, although it seems like a niche opportunity. Just maybe how we should think about it longer term. And then George, as growth matures for the company and the free cash flow improves, any thoughts on your preference between the split between dividends and also share repurchase? And longer term, can that 75% returns move higher so that we could actually decompress the stock multiples?
Paul Jacobs:
I think we are going to do better and better in the computing space and I agree that it's been not as successful as we had hoped in the past in terms of attach rates. I think the operators are getting better at that. We are also building other technologies, obviously, LTE and their license bands do, I think, a lot, some of the small cell stuff should do a lot there. But the other part is just mobile as an enabling technology into other areas. You can see the beginnings of things, automotive space. Yes, those numbers are relatively small, but people talk about Internet of everything as only low value, low margin devices and I think there is going to be a tiering of different kinds of devices. So there will be high value segments in the Internet of everything. There will be also the very cheap ones, but then we are talking about high volumes also. So there is some kind of decent growth there. Then you look out and there is a bunch of areas where we can do things that are just adjacent to the phone, additional content in the phone. Obviously to this point, this play of investments have been not as quick to come to fruition as we had hoped, although I think the wearable spaces is a really interesting part, but also connected home spaces is quite interesting. So lot of opportunity for that going forward. We have some other display technologies as well that are getting a lot of traction with the Pixtronix technology which is more applicable to larger displays, and you know that's a nice licensing business. We have got a bunch of other things in the hopper. The vehicle charging and we are looking at working with partners on that in terms of a larger play there as well. So there is a broad range of technologies out there that we are working on that will drive, I think, a reasonable amount of growth going forward.
George Davis:
Mark, just to answer your questions on the capital structure and return of capital. So what we have said is that we expect to grow double digit topline and bottomline over the next five years and really largely driven by the core businesses that we see today and with that we expect strong cash flow to continue. We are going to grow the dividend rate ahead of earnings is what we have committed to. We are going to return 75% of global free cash flow and so then you will see a large, what isn't going through dividends will obviously go for share repurchase, and as Steve mentioned in the script, we expect to more than double the return over the next five years from what we have returned in the past five years.
Operator:
Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Dr. Jacobs, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call.
Paul Jacobs:
I just wanted to say thanks again to everybody for all the support over the years and it's been a great run as CEO, I think both, measured by the financial metrics and also by sort of the way we expanded the business and the way the company operates and it's really not one person that does that. That's our employees, our partners, all my colleagues here have done just an amazing job over the years and I am looking forward to Steve take the reigns as CEO and drive the company forward. I am very, very excited by the future. It's going to be very fun to see how we have this expanding impact of mobile and I am saying that given the background of how much it has already impacted all of our lives, so it's going to be great to be able to refocus my energy on innovation. I don't think I am going to be presenting at any future earnings calls, but if you guys want I may show up for Q&As and I hope to see you guys, or some of you at least, at Mobile World Congress, so thanks everybody.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.