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Raytheon Technologies Corporation logo
Raytheon Technologies Corporation
RTX · US · NYSE
116.44
USD
-0.3
(0.26%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Juan M. de Bedout Chief Technology Officer --
Ms. Dantaya M. Williams Chief Human Resources Officer --
Mr. Gregory J. Hayes Executive Chairman 5.56M
Ms. Amy L. Johnson Corporate Vice President & Controller --
Mr. Ramsaran Maharajh Jr. General Counsel --
Ms. Pamela M. Erickson Chief Communications Officer --
Ms. Jennifer Reed Vice President of Investor Relations --
Mr. Christopher T. Calio Chief Executive Officer, President & Director 2.75M
Mr. Neil G. Mitchill Jr. Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 2.29M
Ms. Robin L. Diamonte Chief Investment Officer & Vice President of Pension Investments --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman A - M-Exempt Common Stock 128541 82.35
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 13891 117.74
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 16123 117.84
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 16135 117.75
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 16139 117.72
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 16146 117.67
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 17490 117.71
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 17492 117.69
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman A - M-Exempt Common Stock 271521 76
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 17506 117.6
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 32258 117.8
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 32260 117.79
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 32282 117.71
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - D-Return Common Stock 37453 117.72
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - S-Sale Common Stock 38600 117.699
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - S-Sale Common Stock 96287 117.7496
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 128541 82.35
2024-07-31 HAYES GREGORY Executive Chairman D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 271521 76
2024-07-30 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11236 71.01
2024-07-30 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4322 115.4345
2024-07-30 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 6914 115.39
2024-07-30 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 11236 71.01
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3149 82.35
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 2943 113.84
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8769 76
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 3791 113.91
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - D-Return Common Stock 8127 113.89
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 8769 76
2024-07-29 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 3149 82.35
2024-07-29 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - S-Sale Common Stock 12232 113.6475
2024-07-29 Calio Christopher T. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11236 71.01
2024-07-29 Calio Christopher T. President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4235 114
2024-07-29 Calio Christopher T. President and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 7001 113.95
2024-07-29 Calio Christopher T. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 11236 71.01
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2553 71.01
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4681 82.35
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4975 76
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8570 114.92
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12142 71.62
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 9000 114.83
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 15781 114.96
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 4681 82.35
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 4975 76
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 2553 71.01
2024-07-26 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 12142 71.62
2024-07-26 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5958 71.01
2024-07-26 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 2270 114.714
2024-07-26 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - D-Return Common Stock 3688 114.71
2024-07-26 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 5958 71.01
2024-07-26 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - S-Sale Common Stock 6741 114.761
2024-07-26 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - S-Sale Common Stock 8166 114.9603
2024-07-17 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-07-17 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace I - Common Stock 0 0
2025-02-15 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Restricted Stock Units 3830 0
2024-07-17 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Rockwell NQSP 145.6211 0
2024-07-17 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - SRP Stock Unit 474.9125 0
2023-02-04 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Right 11973 90.73
2027-02-08 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Right 18400 91.04
2025-02-15 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Right 6800 94.04
2026-02-08 Brunk Troy D President, Collins Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Right 12600 97.65
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7420 71.62
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21249 78.25
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - S-Sale Common Stock 19880 105.7155
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 84323 90.73
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - D-Return Common Stock 93112 105.73
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 84323 90.73
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 7420 71.62
2024-05-10 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 21249 78.25
2024-05-02 Work Robert O director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2061.0462 0
2024-05-02 Winnefeld James A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2061.0462 0
2024-05-02 ROGERS BRIAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3435.077 0
2024-05-02 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1913.8286 0
2024-05-02 Reynolds Fredric director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2208.2638 0
2024-05-02 Oliver George director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1913.8286 0
2024-05-02 Ramos Denise L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3189.7144 0
2024-05-02 Pawlikowski Ellen M director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1913.8286 0
2024-05-02 Harris Bernard A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1913.8286 0
2024-05-02 Caret Leanne G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2149.3768 0
2024-05-02 Atkinson Tracy A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2119.9333 0
2024-04-30 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - S-Sale Common Stock 10294.507 101.9701
2024-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3986 0
2024-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1848 101.41
2024-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 15895 101.41
2024-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 7366 101.41
2024-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3986 0
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 140884 85.47
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 17297 101.54
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 22424 101.652
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 34366 101.68
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 35014 101.4
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 224734 71.01
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 35049 101.3
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 42045 101.64
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 42049 101.63
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 67338 101.3705
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 70036 101.39
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 140884 85.47
2024-04-25 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 224734 71.01
2024-03-25 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 692 95.63
2024-03-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1872 85.47
2024-03-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 105 90.541
2024-03-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 1767 90.54
2024-03-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 1872 85.47
2024-02-15 Caret Leanne G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 130.7332 0
2024-02-14 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7406 85.47
2024-02-14 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - S-Sale Common Stock 456 91.051
2024-02-14 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - D-Return Common Stock 6950 91.07
2024-02-14 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - S-Sale Common Stock 35000 91.1929
2024-02-14 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 7406 85.47
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 55000 91.04
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5938 0
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 276.83 91.04
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1860 91.04
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 23674 91.04
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5026 91.04
2024-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5938 0
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 82400 91.04
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9963 0
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 518.31 91.04
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 2760 91.04
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - A-Award Common Stock 41428 91.04
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 9369 91.04
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2200 0
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2452 0
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 18400 91.04
2024-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9963 0
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1960 91.04
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 29.99 91.04
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 492 91.04
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 821 91.04
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2452 0
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 59500 91.04
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7301 0
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - F-InKind Common Stock 2023 91.04
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - F-InKind Common Stock 4152 91.04
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon A - A-Award Common Stock 10125 91.04
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7301 0
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 100700 91.04
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8907 0
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2914 91.04
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5488 91.04
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 11841 91.04
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 8907 0
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 55000 91.04
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4266 0
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 3554 91.04
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1131 91.04
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1237 91.04
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4266 0
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 41298 0
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 16936 91.04
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 171629 91.04
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 79533 91.04
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 183100 91.04
2024-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 41298 0
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 64100 91.04
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7508 0
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 2177 91.04
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 4477 91.04
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - A-Award Common Stock 10418 91.04
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7508 0
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Stock 4741 91.04
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1413 91.04
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1799 91.04
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5938 0
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4395 0
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5938 0
2024-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 7400 91.04
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 247200 91.04
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9956 0
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2988 91.04
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO A - A-Award Common Stock 41428 91.04
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19195 91.04
2024-02-08 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9956 0
2024-02-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4256 85.47
2024-02-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 312 92.171
2024-02-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - D-Return Common Stock 3944 92.21
2024-02-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 4256 85.47
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5873 85.47
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1545 92.3559
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9023 81.02
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 13351 92.35
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 5873 85.47
2024-02-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 9023 81.02
2024-02-07 Calio Christopher T. President and COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4767 85.47
2024-02-07 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 367 92.6302
2024-02-07 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - D-Return Common Stock 4400 92.58
2024-02-07 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 4767 85.47
2024-01-07 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-07 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon I - Common Stock 0 0
2025-02-15 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Restricted Stock Units 2894 0
2024-01-07 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Rockwell NQSP 4549.7203 0
2024-01-07 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - SRP Stock Unit 1259.1675 0
2022-02-05 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Stock Appreciation Right 47052 71.62
2024-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Stock Appreciation Right 16100 72.49
2023-02-04 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Stock Appreciation Right 37945 90.73
2025-02-15 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Stock Appreciation Right 26100 94.04
2026-02-08 JASPER PHILIP J President, Raytheon D - Stock Appreciation Right 21900 97.65
2024-01-02 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 11740 0
2023-12-15 Reynolds Frederic director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 298.9537 0
2023-10-02 Calio Christopher T. President and COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 433 0
2023-10-02 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 433 71.34
2023-10-02 Calio Christopher T. President and COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 433 0
2023-07-26 Winnefeld James A Jr director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 100 86.82
2023-05-02 Work Robert O director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2124.0012 0
2023-05-02 ROGERS BRIAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3540.002 0
2023-05-02 Winnefeld James A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3540.002 0
2023-05-02 Reynolds Frederic director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2215.0298 0
2023-05-02 Pawlikowski Ellen M director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3287.1447 0
2023-05-02 Ramos Denise L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3287.1447 0
2023-05-02 Paliwal Dinesh C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4096.2881 0
2023-05-02 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1972.2868 0
2023-05-02 Harris Bernard A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1972.2868 0
2023-05-02 Oliver George director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3287.1447 0
2023-05-02 Caret Leanne G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1972.2868 0
2023-05-02 Atkinson Tracy A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2184.687 0
2023-03-27 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 2452 96.91
2023-03-27 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 688 96.91
2023-03-20 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 1972 97.53
2023-03-20 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 369 97.53
2023-02-28 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 3622 98.551
2022-12-31 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 30.9275 0
2023-02-08 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 40500 97.65
2023-02-08 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 64800 97.65
2023-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 76900 97.65
2023-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 48600 97.65
2023-02-08 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 56700 97.65
2023-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3845 0
2023-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 6100 97.65
2023-02-08 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 267100 97.65
2023-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3845 0
2023-02-08 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 6100 97.65
2023-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 56700 97.65
2023-02-08 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 161900 97.65
2023-02-04 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1961 0
2023-02-04 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1961 0
2023-02-04 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 647 96.48
2023-02-04 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16359 0
2023-02-04 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 16359 0
2023-02-04 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 5558 96.48
2023-02-04 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10178 0
2023-02-04 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3310 96.48
2023-02-04 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 10178 0
2023-02-04 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3571 0
2023-02-04 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3571 0
2023-02-04 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1036 96.48
2023-02-04 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1961 0
2023-02-04 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 677 96.48
2023-02-04 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1961 0
2023-02-04 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 80235 0
2023-02-04 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 32385 96.48
2023-02-04 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 80235 0
2023-02-04 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7815 0
2023-02-04 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7815 0
2023-02-04 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 2266 96.48
2023-02-04 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 17995 0
2023-02-04 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6925 96.48
2023-02-04 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 17995 0
2023-01-29 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15373 0
2023-01-30 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 4946 98.71
2023-01-29 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 15373 0
2023-01-29 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4469 0
2023-01-30 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1373 98.71
2023-01-29 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4469 0
2023-01-29 Azevedo Roy President, RIS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15426 0
2023-01-30 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 5153 98.71
2023-01-29 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 15426 0
2023-01-16 Caret Leanne G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1036.2694 98.43
2023-01-16 Caret Leanne G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1036.2694 0
2023-01-16 Caret Leanne G None None - None None None
2023-01-16 Caret Leanne G - 0 0
2022-12-15 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - A-Award Common Stock 68 0
2022-12-15 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 32 98.49
2022-12-11 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 12282 0
2022-12-11 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12282 0
2022-12-11 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 5692 98.27
2022-12-02 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 60865 83.58
2022-12-02 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4260 99.156
2022-12-02 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 51270 99.22
2022-12-02 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 60865 83.58
2022-12-02 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 60865 0
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6725 83.58
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - S-Sale Common Stock 843 95.5803
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - S-Sale Common Stock 2500 95.509
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - D-Return Common Stock 5882 95.55
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 6725 0
2022-11-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 6725 83.58
2022-10-31 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5022 62.41
2022-10-31 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1697 94.256
2022-10-31 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 3325 94.24
2022-10-31 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 5022 0
2022-10-31 Calio Christopher T. Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 5022 62.41
2022-10-27 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3745 62.41
2022-10-27 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1206 92.013
2022-10-27 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 2539 92.05
2022-10-27 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 3745 62.41
2022-10-03 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 416 0
2022-10-03 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 416 0
2022-10-03 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 416 83.11
2022-10-03 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1690 0
2022-10-03 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1690 83.11
2022-10-03 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1690 0
2022-10-03 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 182 0
2022-10-03 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 182 0
2022-10-03 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 182 83.11
2022-10-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 319 0
2022-10-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 319 0
2022-10-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 319 83.11
2022-10-03 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 405 0
2022-10-03 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 405 83.11
2022-10-03 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 405 0
2022-10-03 Azevedo Roy President, RIS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 414 0
2022-10-03 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 414 83.11
2022-10-03 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 414 0
2022-03-15 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 888.1377 97.62
2022-03-15 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 888.1377 0
2022-04-25 Work Robert O A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2198.5744 99.61
2022-04-25 Work Robert O director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2198.5744 0
2022-04-25 Reynolds Fredric G A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2108.2221 99.61
2022-04-25 Reynolds Fredric G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2108.2221 0
2022-04-25 Ramos Denise L A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3413.3119 99.61
2022-04-25 Ramos Denise L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3413.3119 0
2022-04-25 Winnefeld James A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3363.1162 0
2022-04-25 Winnefeld James A Jr A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3363.1162 99.61
2022-04-25 Winnefeld James A Jr A - P-Purchase Common Stock 200 99
2022-04-25 ROGERS BRIAN C A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3363.1162 99.61
2022-04-25 ROGERS BRIAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3363.1162 0
2022-04-25 O'Sullivan Margaret L. A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 99.61
2022-04-25 O'Sullivan Margaret L. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 0
2022-04-25 Pawlikowski Ellen M A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2047.9872 99.61
2022-04-25 Pawlikowski Ellen M director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2047.9872 0
2022-04-25 Ortberg Robert Kelly A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 99.61
2022-04-25 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 0
2022-04-25 Paliwal Dinesh C A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3915.2696 99.61
2022-04-25 Paliwal Dinesh C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 3915.2696 0
2022-04-25 Oliver George A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 99.61
2022-04-25 Oliver George director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 1867.2824 0
2022-04-25 Harris Bernard A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2047.9872 0
2022-04-25 Harris Bernard A Jr A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2047.9872 99.61
2022-04-25 Atkinson Tracy A A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2198.5744 99.61
2022-04-25 Atkinson Tracy A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2198.5744 0
2022-03-25 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 2452 102.43
2022-03-25 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 692 102.43
2022-03-25 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 2522 102.43
2022-03-21 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 1972 99.94
2022-03-21 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 2079 99.94
2022-03-21 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 384 99.94
2022-03-21 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 566 99.94
2022-03-21 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 461 99.94
2022-03-21 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 1638 99.94
2022-03-01 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-03-01 Eddy Shane G President, P&W I - Common Stock 0 0
2024-02-08 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 16600 72.49
2022-12-11 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Restricted Stock Units 12069 0
2022-03-01 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - SRP Stock Unit 2638.8219 0
2022-02-05 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 50594 71.62
2019-11-01 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 8427 75.79
2021-01-02 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 25297 76
2020-01-03 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 11917 82.35
2017-01-02 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 6725 83.58
2018-01-02 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 7406 85.47
2023-02-04 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 40475 90.73
2025-02-15 Eddy Shane G President, P&W D - Stock Appreciation Right 58000 94.04
2022-02-25 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13000 83.58
2022-02-25 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1883 97.761
2022-02-28 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13814 83.58
2022-02-28 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 2443 101.484
2022-02-25 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 97.731
2022-02-28 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 101.434
2022-02-25 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 11117 97.73
2022-02-28 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 11371 101.53
2022-02-25 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 13000 83.58
2022-02-28 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 13814 83.58
2022-02-18 Atkinson Tracy A director D - S-Sale Common Stock 5340 93.6314
2022-02-15 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 77400 94.04
2022-02-15 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 53200 94.04
2022-02-15 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 48400 94.04
2022-02-15 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 96700 94.04
2022-02-15 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3195 0
2022-02-15 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 5800 94.04
2022-02-15 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 96700 94.04
2022-02-17 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - S-Sale Common Stock 15083 93.924
2022-02-15 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 294900 94.04
2022-02-15 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3195 0
2022-02-15 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 5800 94.04
2022-02-15 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 135400 94.04
2022-02-15 Azevedo Roy President, RIS A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 96700 94.04
2022-02-05 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 53083 0
2022-02-05 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Common Stock 18028 93.01
2022-02-05 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 53083 0
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1070 0
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1415 0
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1070 0
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 335 93.01
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 492 93.01
2022-02-05 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1415 0
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1895 0
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2600 0
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1895 0
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 531 93.01
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 728 93.01
2022-02-05 Timm Stephen J. President, Collins Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2600 0
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 10287 0
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10287 0
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 15046 0
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4770 93.01
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5501 93.01
2022-02-05 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15046 0
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1559 0
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2561 0
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1559 0
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 452 93.01
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 743 93.01
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2561 0
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1028 0
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 323 93.01
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1028 0
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2460 0
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 827 93.01
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2460 0
2022-02-05 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 114320 0
2022-02-05 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 46816 93.01
2022-02-05 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 114320 0
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15046 0
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 15046 0
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6758 93.01
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 26410 0
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 9682 93.01
2022-02-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 26410 0
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 11933 0
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11933 0
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 5546 93.01
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30083 0
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 30083 0
2022-02-05 Calio Christopher T. President, P&W D - F-InKind Common Stock 12496 93.01
2022-01-30 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23348 0
2022-01-31 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - F-InKind Common Stock 8265 90.19
2022-01-30 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 23348 0
2022-01-30 Azevedo Roy President, RIS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18923 0
2022-01-31 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 6519 90.19
2022-01-30 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 18923 0
2022-01-30 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6787 0
2022-01-31 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2050 90.19
2022-01-30 DaSilva Kevin G Corporate VP and Treasurer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6787 0
2021-12-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 17650 0
2021-12-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-02 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 16696 76
2020-01-03 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 7831 82.35
2017-01-02 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 2894 83.58
2018-01-02 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 4256 85.47
2023-02-04 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 18382 90.73
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Restricted Stock Units 4215 0
2021-12-07 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - SRP Stock Unit 1143.7886 0
2019-01-04 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 5958 71.01
2022-02-05 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 20069 71.62
2024-02-08 Maharajh Ramsaran EVP and General Counsel D - Stock Appreciation Right 7600 72.49
2021-11-05 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 90.541
2021-10-27 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - G-Gift Common Stock 32600 0
2021-10-27 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - G-Gift Common Stock 32600 0
2021-10-01 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 945 0
2021-10-01 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 945 0
2021-10-01 Williams Dantaya M EVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 438 87.48
2021-09-30 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 763 0
2021-09-30 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 763 0
2021-09-30 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 763 85.96
2021-09-30 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3291 0
2021-09-30 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3291 85.96
2021-09-30 HAYES GREGORY Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3291 0
2021-09-09 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Common Stock 211 0
2021-09-09 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Common Stock 84 83.66
2021-09-09 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Common Stock 842 0
2021-09-09 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Common Stock 312 83.66
2021-09-01 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-09-01 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-09-01 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - SRP Stock Unit 107.932 0
2022-02-05 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Stock Appreciation Right 5734 71.62
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Stock Appreciation Right 4200 72.49
2021-01-02 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Stock Appreciation Right 8769 76
2023-02-04 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Stock Appreciation Right 10118 90.73
2020-01-03 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Stock Appreciation Right 3149 82.35
2024-02-08 Johnson Amy L Corporate VP and Controller D - Restricted Stock Units 2307 0
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 34571 0
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Common Stock 13604 84.1
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 138027 0
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 34571 0
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - F-InKind Common Stock 51070 84.1
2021-09-01 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 138027 0
2021-08-04 Kremer Wesley D President, RMD D - S-Sale Common Stock 5512 86.8206
2021-07-15 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - S-Sale Common Stock 17430 84.7453
2021-07-15 Ortberg Robert Kelly director D - S-Sale Common Stock 42570 85.2506
2021-06-01 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 88.9804
2021-05-21 Jimenez Frank R EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 1400 85.97
2021-05-20 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18000 62.41
2021-05-24 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16476 62.41
2021-05-20 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4722 84.637
2021-05-24 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 4552 86.2702
2021-05-20 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 13278 84.6
2021-05-24 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 11924 86.23
2021-05-20 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 18000 62.41
2021-05-24 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 16476 62.41
2021-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3705 0
2021-05-01 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7803 0
2021-05-01 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7803 0
2021-05-03 Dumais Michael R EVP,Chf Transformation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3461 84.14
2021-03-22 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 433 76.92
2021-03-22 Azevedo Roy President, RIS D - F-InKind Common Stock 1499 76.92
2021-04-28 Jimenez Frank R EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9790 82.7996
2021-04-28 Jimenez Frank R EVP and General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9923 82.1547
2021-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3705 0
2021-04-26 Mitchill Neil G. JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Right 16900 81
2021-04-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer D - SRP Stock Unit 2130.0777 0
2021-04-26 Work Robert O director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4506.1728 0
2021-04-26 Winnefeld James A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4135.8025 0
2021-04-26 ROGERS BRIAN C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4135.8025 0
2021-04-26 Reynolds Fredric G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2592.5926 0
2021-04-26 Ramos Denise L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4197.5309 0
2021-04-26 Pawlikowski Ellen M director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2518.5185 0
2021-04-26 Paliwal Dinesh C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 4814.8148 0
2021-04-26 O'Sullivan Margaret L. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2296.2963 0
2021-04-26 Ortberg Robert Kelly director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2296.2963 0
2021-04-26 Oliver George director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2296.2963 0
2021-04-26 LARSEN MARSHALL O director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2296.2963 0
2021-04-26 Harris Bernard A Jr director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2518.5185 0
2021-04-26 Atkinson Tracy A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock Unit 2703.7037 0
2021-04-19 Harris Bernard A Jr - 0 0
2021-04-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-04-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer I - Common Stock 0 0
2024-02-08 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer D - Restricted Stock Units 8330 0
2021-04-07 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer D - SRP Stock Unit 2291.0069 0
2019-01-04 Mitchill Neil G. JR Chief Financial Officer D - Stock Appreciation Right 11236 71.01
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the RTX Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is [Livia], and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Chris Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Nathan Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX website at www.rtx.com. Please note except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Calio.
Chris Calio:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As you saw from our press release this morning, RTX delivered strong operational and financial performance in the second quarter as we continue to execute on our customer commitments and strategic priorities. Let me start with the highlights on Slide 3. We saw another quarter of excellent top line growth with adjusted sales of $19.8 billion, which were up 10% organically. Adjusted EPS of $1.41 was up 9% year-over-year, driven by profit growth and margin expansion across all three segments, and free cash flow was strong at $2.2 billion. We also saw continued growth in our backlog, which ended the quarter at $206 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.25. There were also some notable contract wins in the quarter, including a 10-year MRO agreement to support Collins significant content on Air Canada's 787 fleet of up to 70 aircraft, including avionics, air management and electric power systems. Collins also received a multibillion-dollar award for the U.S. Air Force's next-generation survivable airborne operations center, and Raytheon received a $639 million award for SPY6 radar production for the U.S. Navy. As you saw in early July, Germany placed an additional order for Patriot Systems. This is on top of the $1.2 billion order they placed for multiple systems in the first quarter of the year. We also saw some positive GTF announcements at the Farnborough Airshow earlier this week, with over 700 GTF engines ordered, including options and commitments. These include Cebu Pacific selecting the GTF to power the carriers order for up to 152 additional single-aisle aircraft and Avalon selecting the GTF engine for up to 160 aircraft. So another quarter of robust orders with significant wins already secured early here in Q3 and more expected as the year progresses. We also continue to make progress on our critical initiatives. Specifically regarding the GTF fleet management plan, we remain on track with our financial and operational outlook consistent with our prior comments. As of the end of Q2, we have inspected over 6,000 powder metal parts that are in the field across all programs and the associated fallout rate remains below the 1% we had assumed and the findings are consistent with the assumptions that underpin our fleet management plan. At our MRO facilities, throughput of engines continues to improve, and overall capacity is expanding with the recent addition of two new MRO shops into the network. PW1100 MRO output increased 10% versus the first quarter. We expect this ramp to continue in the second half of the year. As it relates to the PW1100 fleet, AOGs have leveled out over the past few months and remain in line with our expectations. We've also now reached support agreements with 20 of our customers, covering roughly 65% of the impacted fleet and the terms are in line with our assumptions. Beyond our operational performance, let me also comment on the legal and contract charges we outlined in our press release this morning, and then Neil will provide a more detail in a bit. We're nearing completion of agreements with the Department of Justice, SEC and Department of State to resolve several legal matters. These matters primarily arose out of legacy Raytheon Company and Rockwell Collins prior to the merger and acquisition of these companies. We've already taken robust corrective actions to address the legacy gaps that led to these issues, being implementing enhanced compliance and training measures. We also took a charge related to the anticipated termination of Raytheon fixed price development contract that was entered into before the merger. As we've been discussing in the last few quarters, we've been battling through some challenges in a handful of fixed price development programs, including this one. But this specific contract is unique in terms of its scope, deliverables and associated risk profile, which led us to pursue termination. So we're pleased to be putting these matters behind us. And as I highlighted earlier, our operational performance was very strong in the quarter. Given this performance and the continuing strength of our end markets, we are raising our outlook for adjusted sales and EPS. We've also revised our cash outlook for the year as a result of matters I just discussed. Lastly, as you saw in May, we raised our dividend 7% and remain on track to return $36 billion to $37 billion of capital to share owners from the merger through the end of next year. Okay, with that, let's move to Slide 4, and I'll spend a few minutes on our strategic priorities that will enable us to drive best-in-class performance across RTX, including meeting customer demand, continued sales growth, margin expansion across our segments and strong cash flow generation. Given our growing installed base and the unprecedented demand for our products, our first priority is executing on our commitments, powered by our core operating system, our focus is on driving incremental operational improvements to ramp output and deliver on this demand. Today, we have over 4,000 core projects being worked across the company. For example, at Collins, our avionics business improved first pass yield by 2x in its fire detection product line by reconfiguring the production sell-out, creating digital tools and upgrading equipment. And at Raytheon, the team conducted a core leadership week to identify initiatives to more than double weekly output on a key component of our AIM9X effector. As a result, the team achieved a 90% increase in output in the quarter, is on track to hit their full year target by the end of Q3. We also continue to add capacity to meet the demands of the industrial ramp-up. During the quarter, we announced a $200 million investment in our carbon break facility in Spokane, Washington. Once complete, it will add 70,000 square feet of manufacturing footprint to meet rapidly growing demand for our Collins brake solutions. And on the defense side, we're investing in test equipment and tooling to more than double production capacity by year-end in our Coyote program, which is a low-cost kinetic effector for the counter unmanned aircraft systems that directly address today's drone threats. In addition to creating new capacity, we continue to modernize our existing footprint as part of our Industry 4.0 initiatives. Across RTX, we have now connected 26 factories with our proprietary digital analytics technology, providing us with real-time data to boost equipment efficiency, improve quality and yield higher output. This represents a 30% increase in connected sites since the start of the year, and we remain on track to connect 40 factories by the end of the year. These incremental efficiency, capacity and technology improvements are critical to meeting the needs of our customers as we operate in the strongest demand environment in our history. Let me move now to our second priority, innovating for future growth. We are executing on our cross-company technology roadmap to develop differentiated solutions in areas such as sustainability, advanced propulsion, next-generation sensing, connected battle space and hypersonics, this year alone, we will spend over $7.5 billion on company and customer-funded research and development to mature and introduce new capabilities to our customers and sell our product pipeline. For example, we are working on a number of hybrid electric demonstrator programs to deliver advanced propulsion technologies and enable greater fuel efficiency across all future aircraft segments. Recently, our Collins, Pratt and Technology Research Center teams completed a significant milestone in the development of our hybrid electric demonstrator, validating the integrated system functionality of the engine, electric motor, batteries and high-voltage electric power distribution. And in the quarter, we delivered the first TPY2 radar that incorporates our proprietary gallium nitride technology. This technology is a game changer for our sensing capability, providing expanded surveillance range and supporting additional missions in the space domain and hypersonic defense. We also continue to invest in our digital transformation and AI. This year, we are adding an additional 30-plus use cases that generate incremental productivity and cost savings across RTX using advances in artificial intelligence and deep learning. In total, we have over 200 AI use cases currently deployed across various internal functions. Our AI investments are also enabling new and improved capabilities in our products such as predicting equipment failures and aiding human operators in executing complex tasks. These types of investments in innovation will allow us to continue to develop next-gen products and solutions well into the future. Our third priority is to fully leverage our breadth and scale across RTX to drive value for our stakeholders. Specifically, this includes creating a more efficient and competitive cost structure and managing our common supply chain. For example, over 35% of our product procurement spend is with common suppliers that support all three of our businesses. We're using a unified RTX approach to our contracts and sourcing strategy. It also includes harmonizing our product lifecycle and management processes developing integrated solutions for strategic campaigns and pursuits such as NGAD, FLORA and next-generation commercial platforms. And of course, we'll also continue to review our portfolio and prune where needed as well as target bolt-on M&A to support our RTX technology roadmap and grow our core franchises. And underlying all three of these priorities is our unwavering commitment to safety, quality and compliance and everything that we do. It's what we and our customers expect and a commitment we will never compromise on. Putting it all together, I'm extremely excited and confident about the future of RTX. With that, before I turn it over to Neil, I want to acknowledge the leadership update we announced last week. As you saw, Steve Tim has decided to retire after 28 years with the company. Steve was a great partner in teammate, and I want to thank him for his leadership at Collins, and we're very fortunate to have a strong bench and are very excited that Troy Brunk is taking over as the new President of Collins. Troy has served as the President of three of the six Collins business units is uniquely qualified for the role . Okay. Let me turn it over to Neil to take you through the second quarter results in more detail. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. I'm on Slide 5. As Chris said, operationally, we had a strong quarter and continue to make progress on key financial metrics across RTX. RTX adjusted sales of $19.8 billion were up 8% and on an organic basis, were up 10%. By channel, commercial OE was up 19% as we continue to support aircraft demand. Commercial aftermarket was up 14% as domestic, international and long-haul travel continues to grow. And excluding the Raytheon cybersecurity divestiture, defense sales were up 7% as we execute on our backlog. . Segment operating profit of $2.4 billion was up 19% with growth at all three businesses contributing to consolidated segment operating margin expansion of 100 basis points. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 was up 9% from the prior year, driven by segment operating profit growth as well as a lower share count, which was partially offset by expected headwinds from higher interest and tax expense and lower pension income. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.08 and included $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments and $0.03 of restructuring and other significant nonrecurring items. In addition, as it relates to the items Chris mentioned, GAAP EPS also includes a $0.68 charge related to the expected resolution of several legacy legal matters and a $0.33 charge related to a fixed price development contract at Raytheon. With respect to the legal matters, we are working to finalize deferred prosecution agreements and a civil settlement with the DOJ and an administrative order with the SEC. These agreements will cover the previously disclosed investigations of defective pricing claims for certain legacy Raytheon company contracts, which were entered into between 2011 and 2013 and in 2017. They will also cover the previously disclosed investigations of improper payments made by Raytheon Company and its joint venture, Thales-Raytheon Systems in connection with some Middle East contracts dating back to 2012. As a result, we recorded a pretax charge of $633 million in the quarter, which brings our total reserves associated with these matters to $959 million. In addition, we recorded a pretax charge of $285 million related to voluntarily disclosed export controls compliance matters primarily identified during the integration of Rockwell Collins and Raytheon Company into RTX including matters which are expected to be addressed in a consent agreement with the Department of State. As part of the resolution of each of these three matters, we will be required to retain independent compliance monitors over the 3-year term of the agreements. In total, we expect to pay about $1 billion related to these matters this year and have incorporated that into our updated free cash flow outlook for the year. I'll take you through the other moving pieces of our outlook on the next slide. While the financial impact of these items is above what we had previously reserved, we believe the provisions we have taken put these issues behind us financially, and we will continue to cooperate with the government and external monitors as we move forward. As it relates to the fixed price development contract, as you know, we've been discussing the challenges we've been working through on this front for some time. In conjunction with that effort and an anticipated termination on one of our Raytheon programs with a foreign customer, we've recorded a pretax charge of $575 million in the quarter. Again, we've incorporated the expected cash outflows into our revised free cash flow outlook for this year. For the quarter, cash flow was robust with $2.2 billion of free cash flow that was driven by strong collections across the portfolio and some lower tax payments. We also continued our deleveraging in the second quarter and paid down another $750 million of debt bringing our total debt repayments since the accelerated share repurchase was initiated last October to $2.7 billion, and we returned $867 million of capital to shareowners primarily through dividends during the quarter. On the portfolio front, we're also pleased that Italy has approved the sale of Collins actuation business, and we continue to actively support the remaining efforts to complete the transaction. And as you may have also seen, we have entered into an agreement to sell Collins hoist and winch business for over $500 million. Another great example of the portfolio pruning we are doing to focus on our core franchises. Okay. Turning to Page 6. Let me share a few details on our updated outlook for the year. As you've seen, the first half performance across all three of our businesses has been strong, driven by end market demand and continued execution. There are, of course, a few areas we continue to monitor, including pockets of supply chain challenges, inflation and the ongoing OE production rate uncertainty. But given the results to date, we are increasing our full year adjusted sales outlook to between $78.75 million and $79.5 billion, up from our prior range of $78 million to $79 billion and we now expect 8% to 9% organic sales growth for the year, up from our prior range of 7% to 8%. We are also increasing our adjusted EPS outlook by $0.10 on the low end and $0.05 on the high end, putting the new range at $5.35 to $5.45, up from $5.25 to $5.40. The improvement is driven primarily by lower interest in corporate expenses, higher pension income and a lower full year effective tax rate. We have included the corresponding updated outlook for these metrics in the appendix of our webcast slides. On free cash flow, as I mentioned earlier, we've incorporated our expected cash outflows associated with the legal and contract matters into our outlook. Partially offsetting these impacts is some improvement in current year tax payments of roughly $500 million. All in, we have updated our free cash flow outlook to be approximately $4.7 billion compared to our previous expectation of approximately $5.7 billion. With that, let me turn it over to Nathan to talk you through our segment results and outlooks.
Nathan Ware:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on Slide 7. Sales were $7 billion in the quarter, up 10% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by strength in commercial aftermarket, commercial OE and defense. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 12%, driven by a 16% increase in parts and repair, a 15% increase in provisioning and a 9% decrease in mods and upgrades. With mods and upgrades coming off a difficult prior year compare that benefited from the 5G mandate. Commercial OE sales for the quarter were up 10% versus the prior year, driven by growth in narrow-body, wide-body and regional platforms, and defense sales were up 7%, primarily due to higher volume. Adjusted operating profit of $1.15 billion was up $230 million or 25% from the prior year driven primarily by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume as well as higher defense and commercial OE volume. Looking ahead, on a full year basis, we now expect Collins sales to grow high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis up from the prior range of mid- to high single digits, driven by continued strength in commercial air traffic and defense volume. And we continue to expect operating profit growth between $650 million and $725 million versus 2023. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 8. Sales of $6.8 billion were up 19% on both an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all three channels. Commercial lease sales were up 33% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in the large commercial engine business. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 15% in the quarter, driven by higher volume and favorable mix in both the large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. And in the military engine business, sales were up 16%, primarily driven by higher sustainment volume across the F-135 and F-117 platforms. Adjusted operating profit of $537 million was up $101 million versus the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable mix as well as favorable large commercial OE mix was partially offset by headwinds from large commercial OE engine deliveries and the absence of a $60 million favorable prior year contract matter. Drop-through from higher military volume and favorable mix was more than offset by higher production costs and higher R&D and SG&A expenses. Turning to Pratt's full year outlook. We now expect sales to grow mid-teens on an adjusted organic basis, up from our prior range of low double digits driven by stronger military volume and higher commercial OE, and we continue to see adjusted operating profit growth between $400 million and $475 million versus 2023. Now turning to Raytheon on Slide 9. Adjusted sales of $6.6 billion in the quarter were down 2% as a result of the cybersecurity divestiture completed in the first quarter. On an organic basis, sales were up 4%, primarily driven by higher volume on land and air defense systems, including Patriot, counter UAS programs and Stinger. Adjusted operating profit of $709 million was up $47 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on higher volume, favorable mix and improved net productivity, partially offset by the impact of the cybersecurity divestiture, and Raytheon had $5 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a backlog of $51 billion. On a rolling 12-month basis, Raytheon's book-to-bill is 1.13. In addition to the SPY-6 award that Chris mentioned earlier, Raytheon also had $928 million of classified awards and a $393 million award from NASA to design, produce and deliver four units that will provide advanced earth observation. Looking ahead, we now expect Raytheon sales to grow by mid-single digits organically, up from the prior range of low to mid-single digits, driven by improved material flow. As a result, we now expect Raytheon's operating profit to grow between $125 million and $200 million versus 2023, up from the prior range of between $100 million and $200 million, and this includes the impact from the cybersecurity divestiture. With that, I'll turn it back over to Chris to wrap things up.
Chris Calio:
Okay. Thanks, Nathan. I'm on Slide 10. As you've heard today, our second quarter operating results were very strong, and we're confident in our updated outlook for the full year. But if you step back and just think of beyond 2024 and look at the long term for RTX, we've got the best position franchise programs with the right content on the right platforms across commercial, aerospace and defense. Our large and growing installed base will support significant commercial aftermarket growth for decades to come, and our industry-leading defense capabilities address the threats playing out across the global landscape. All right. With that, let's open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird. Peter Arment, your line is open.
Peter Arment:
Hi, thanks. Good morning, Chris, Neil, Nathan.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Peter Arment:
Chris, nice results. Just, I guess, maybe just on the GTF fleet management plan. It sounds like everything is going according to plan and remains on track, but maybe if you just peel back the onion a little bit, I know you talked about some pacing items in the past about getting full life distant to the MRO shops and just kind of material availability. It sounds like the MRO capacity is going as planned, but maybe any kind of metrics or any color, what you're seeing and any opportunities actually where any of these metrics might still be able to come into the left before 2026? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Okay. Peter, thanks for the question. Let me take you through where things stand. As you noted, our key assumptions around AOGs, lingering turnaround time, shop visit mix between heavy and light and customer compensation all remain consistent. And as I noted up front, our assumptions on the inspection follow-up rates and the findings are all consistent, or even better than we planned. So good stability around the key assumptions. As you know, MRO output is the key enabler and we're focused on improving the material flow, better processes in the shops and we've added some capacity on this front. And again, we saw some good signs of progress here in the first half of the year. I mean, output was up 10% from Q1 to Q2 and first half output on the 1100 is up over 30% versus the first half in 2023. So continue to drive some output there, which is helpful. The key enabler of course on the MRO output is material. You had mentioned that, no upfront. We're continuing to see some progress on structural castings. Structural castings are up about 5% sequentially and 14% year-over-year, so good progress there. And then on forging, the powdered metal parts. We continue to drive output there as well. Isothermal forging were up almost 100% year-over-year. And we continue to add additional capacity for inspection and machining. For example, we've nearly doubled our sonic inspection capacity for the year. So again, driving on all the key enablers, Peter, to try to get this fleet in as healthier shape as we possibly can. I'll also just note, sort of unrelated to the fleet management plans. We continue to drive OE output as well. OE deliveries were up sequentially, up 30% in the first half on a year-over-year basis, despite sort of grinding through some of the supply chain portabilities. And we're also pleased with the additions to the GTS backlog that were announced at Farnborough recently. So again, focusing on what we can control on the fleet management plan and continuing to drive both supply chain and new orders into the backlog.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate all the details. Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Robert Stallard, your line is open.
Rob Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Rob.
Chris Calio:
Hi, Rob.
Rob Stallard:
Chris, following on the GTF theme, I was wondering if you could comment on what the situation is with Airbus and their recent forecast cut, because they've clearly not been getting as many new engines as they anticipated. So those engines instead go into the spare engine pool? Thank you.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Thanks, Rob. So again, you heard me say just a minute ago to Peter that ROE deliveries are up sequentially and up first half of the year, 30% on a year-over-year basis. We're not necessarily where we need to be with Airbus. But again, we're seeing strong growth sequentially and year-over-year. And our outlook reflects our assessment of kind of where Airbus needs support from us. And we're aligned on what they need. You alluded to the fact that, we're balancing both OE and spare engine and material. And that's true. And we need to do that for the support of the fleet. But again, I continue to be encouraged by what we continue to drive in terms of production, and getting Airbus what they need. And I think in the back half, we're going to continue to balance the OE spare engine and MRO needs. But I think, we'll be in a position to get Airbus what they need.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research. Miles Walton, your line is open.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Myles Walton:
Hi Chris or Neil, I'm not sure, which on the defense side and on Raytheon, could you maybe dig a little bit into, what are the problem programs still remaining? Maybe a percentage of revenue, if that's where you want to handle it, or backlog. And then specifically to this decision to sort of proactively cut losses and terminate the contract, not an easy decision. But are there other contracts where you could extinguish similarly, or would that cause customer distress? And lastly, was there a cash impact? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yes, thanks, Myles. I'll start and then Neil can certainly chime in. Certainly not an easy decision, but we've been alluding to the fact that we've had a significant classified program out there that was, we would say, not in our wheelhouse. Meaning the work that we had taken on, and this contract was pre-formation of RTX, was not within our core competency. And we struggled with that, and we struggled to get to the right technical solutions, and ultimately came to a point where, we just didn't think it was productive anymore to continue to go down this path. And ultimately decided it was in the best interest of us, and the customer to just kind of do a reset here, and allow us to go focus our resources on some of the other programs that we've got. You had mentioned a handful of other, I'll call them classified development, fixed price development programs that we've been talking about. I'll say those are much different in terms of risk profile than the one we took action on here. Those have some important milestones here in '24 and in '25. But we feel like we've got a much better handle on those than the one we're talking about here. And feel like we understand the risks much better there, and what needs to be done to get them to closure.
Neil Mitchill:
And just to add, Myles, in terms of the cash flow impact. So, as I sit here today, there's really just a few changes that we've made to our '24 outlook. The first is about $1 billion related to the legal matters. We sold about a $0.5 billion related to the contract matter that Chris just was talking about. And offsetting that is about a $0.5 billion of improvement that we've seen operationally in our tax payments due to some planning that we've done. So, net-net, that's $1 billion. And I would expect that that mostly sits in the fourth quarter of this year. It'll depend on when we get the final resolutions with the government agencies, but that's trending towards certainly late September, or early in the fourth quarter.
Myles Walton:
Okay. Thanks for the color.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question, coming from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Sheila, your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, guys, and thank you.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
So, right Neil maybe another one for you. Just you're going to do about $7.2 billion of net income this year on an adjusted basis, and generate $4.7 billion of cash. Some of that is one-time items with the DOJ, the powder metal and tax. So, how do we think about that gap closing on net income to cash flow? And then just on the DOJ, can you elaborate a little bit more how we think about that, the outcomes of it and the cash impact outside of '24?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Let me start with free cash. You just heard me talk about sort of the changes that we rolled into our outlook for the year. As I think about the absolute value of the $4.7 billion, remember, that includes a couple of non-recurring items that are pretty substantial. And if you adjust for those things, you kind of get to a $7 billion, $7.5 billion, maybe even higher level of free cash flow that is operational. So, I think as we look forward, Sheila, and we get the powder metal payments behind us this year and next year, just a little color, so far we're a little less than $200 million into our $1.3 billion in powder metal outflows this year. We expect that to obviously ramp up. You heard us talk about doubling the number of customers that, we've got agreements with, and about two-thirds of the fleet under agreement. So, I would expect third and fourth quarter kind of be split pretty evenly, with respect to the rest of the payments this year. But if you look at the underlying operations, you can see that there's real strong organic sustainable cash flow. And I think that's what we'll be looking to see sustain itself over time. Now, in particular, there's some working capital improvement. I've talked about like $1.1 billion of improvement year-over-year and arriving at our $4.7 billion. Obviously, inventory was a use of cash in the first half. We expect that to turn around in the second half, which is typical for our business. We've got a little bit of headwind from the OE production rates that we've contemplated in that, but we're seeing stronger collections on the customer side. So, that balances for the rest of this year. So, that's how I would characterize the free cash flow situation today. As it relates to the DOJ and the outcomes, I think we feel very certain about the amount of cash impact that's going to happen this year. As we talked about in our prepared remarks, we've reached agreements in principle. There's some work to do to get that finalized with the various government agencies. That could take a few months, but when it happens, that will get filed and be available publicly. And then shortly thereafter we'll be required to make the payments associated with that. There's very little that lingers beyond that. I'd say it's in the $50 million a year kind of range following 2024, so it's manageable. Those costs will include some residual payments on the global trade related consent agreement, as well as some internal costs that we'll obviously invest in to continue to improve our processes, as we support the monitor activities. So, I would leave it at that for now with those items.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Cool. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question, coming from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein. Doug Harned, your line is open.
Doug Harned:
Thank you. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Harned:
What you've talked about and what we've heard as well is that, your shop on the GTF, that a lot of the shops visit times, you've brought that down significantly the time in the shop, which is great. And so, presumably, this is with improved parts availability that's allowed you to do that. And I know in Q1 you did divert resources away from V2500 work in order to better enable you to provide GTF parts. And so, two things on this. I guess first, and where do you stand now on V2500 MRO? Is that kind of back to normal? And then second, even though those shop visit times seem to have come down significantly, everything we've seen is that induction wait times are still quite long. And perhaps, if you could address those two issues, it would be really helpful?
Neil Mitchill:
Doug, let me start on the V2500. Then I'll hand it over to Chris to talk a little bit about the GTF induction times and turnaround times. On the V2500 on a first half basis, we're at about 369 inductions to-date. So, we had talked about 800 on a full year basis, and we expect that. We still expect that to continue. And I guess the good news there is that, with that acceleration, not only are we seeing an increase in the number of shop visits in the second half of the year, we're also seeing more work scopes. So, these are heavier overhauls. And all of that will contribute to the second half growth that we'll expect to see coming from Pratt & Whitney, particularly in the aftermarket. So, the second half story for Pratt's, operating outlook is really focused around what we call the mature commercial engines, the V2500 being the biggest part of that. So, that's where we sit today on that front. Chris, maybe a couple comments on GTF.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Before I do that, Doug, I'll just say on the V, I mean, obviously our customers are relying heavily on that, given the other stress in the fleet. So, we're heavily focused on making sure that, V inductions, turnaround times and what not, that the support is there for the customer base. On the GTF MRO, you're right. In the shop, when we've got material flowing, when we've got material in the right positions in gate two and gate three. We are seeing significant reduction in shop turnaround time, both our shops and our partners, which is really encouraging. The induction times are really a function of what we would call the parking lot. Doug, there are a lot of engines that came off wing, obviously, when the AD hit. People did some of that proactively. So, we are still working through a large parking lot of engines that need to get inducted into the shop. But again, we're encouraged by what we're seeing when the material is there, which is why we're so heavily focused on making sure the supply chain is healthy. You heard me talk about structural castings, isothermal forgings. These are the things that are going to be the biggest unlock for us as we take the AOG numbers down, and support our customers.
Doug Harned:
Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question, coming from the line of Ronald Epstein from Bank of America. Ronald, your line is open.
Samantha Stiroh:
Hi, good morning. This is Samantha Stiroh on for Ron Epstein. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about Collins, particularly interiors, kind of what they're doing and what your expectations are there? Thank you.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Samantha. How are you doing? Let me start there. I mean, we're seeing significant improvement in the interiors business. And frankly, the second half story for Collins is going to rely substantially on the aftermarket uptick there, in mods and upgrades. And the one thing I would say about the Collins portfolio of businesses as we've seen really strong performance across all the segments, the - SBU segments there. And many of them are at or above, frankly above, where we were in 2019. Interiors is the one place where we're still lagging. So we're encouraged by the orders we are seeing there. And we do expect that to translate to substantial growth in the second half of this year that's going to be driving a substantial part of Collins aftermarket year-over-year.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Seth, your line is open.
Seth Seifman:
Hi, thanks very much and good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Seth Seifman:
Chris, Neil, I wonder if you could address the free cash flow target for next year. Kind of talk about whether you feel like that still stands, areas of risk, areas of opportunity and kind of your level of confidence?
Chris Calio:
Yes. Thanks for the question. Right now, Seth, we don't see a reason to change the outlook. The fundamental business drivers remain strong on both the commercial and defense side, our end markets have proven pretty resilient and demand remains strong as we set up front. I think with everybody else, there are several items that we're tracking that have 2025 implications. I think OE rates kind of continue to see the strength in the aftermarket. That's a big part of the cash walk in 2025. And of course, the supply chain I mean you just heard me talk about the sequential improvement and the stability we're seeing, but that's got to continue to ramp. But again, still feel like the 2025 cash goal here is achievable based on everything we see today, both within our four walls and the macro environment.
Seth Seifman:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley. Kristine Liwag, your line is open.
Kristine Liwag:
Hi. Good morning Chris, Neil and Nathan.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
Maybe back with Pratt, you guys have highlighted that isothermal forgings are getting better. You're seeing doubled capacity increases in sonic inspections, which are all good, but structural castings continue to be an issue. Can you provide more color on why structural casting continues to linger. And then also, I mean, look, this historically has been one of the bottlenecks for previous aerospace ramp ups. So I guess, how is your approach different this time around to mitigate risk? And any color you could provide on the underlying tightness would be helpful?
Chris Calio:
Sure. Thanks, Kristine. And you're right, structural castings has been a habitual sort of constrained value stream even since the beginning of the ramp-up back in the '16, '17 time frame, while we've seen some improvement here, I mentioned up 5% sequentially. It needs to be higher than that, in order to continue to meet the demands of both OE to the airframers, spare engines, and MRO. So again, while we're seeing sort of positive incremental improvement, it needs to continue to grow. And the reason its constrained is because there are very few people that do this. And a lot of us in the industry rely on the same players. And so, we're all ramping up around the same time. To your point about what we're doing differently. I would say we're really working hard on making sure that our demand signal is crystal clear that people know what we need both from an OE, but also an MRO perspective. And then getting on LTAs as quickly as we can, so that we can make sure that, again, supply chain knows what we need, when we need it and that they can go make the necessary investments to deliver.
Neil Mitchill:
One thing I would add there, too, is that we've forward deployed a lot of our own people to these suppliers to help sort through the assessments that are required around the inspection criteria. As you know, these are parts that are built to extremely tight tolerances. And it's important to have our engineering teams working collaboratively with the supply base. To make sure that we can clear those items, as they come through the production process. And that's been something that I think we've put a lot of effort into over the last couple of years, frankly, but we've ramped that up recently.
Kristine Liwag:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Cai von Rumohr from TD Cowen. Cai von Rumohr, your line is open.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thanks so much.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Cai Von Rumohr:
So operations look good at Pratt and Collins in the quarter, sales beat, margins beat, and you've increased sales for the year, but you basically didn't touch profit guide, for Pratt or Collins, is that conservative? Or are you assuming, I mean, it looks like in Collins, the margins are the same or basically a little bit lighter in the second half than the second quarter. Give us some color on that, if you could?
Chris Calio:
Hi Cai, thanks for the comments. Overall, we're pleased with the first half results as you kind of outlined there, and we've updated our full year guide to reflect that strong top line growth. When we think about the segments and what's going on there, there are some headwinds. We've got some higher product costs, primarily in the defense pieces of Pratt and Collins. We've got a little bit of under-absorption with some of the lower OE rates. And we've seen some higher E&D. Now we have offset some of those headwinds with some below-the-line items, such as corporate spending reductions and tightening. So there are a few moving pieces here, but we've got good momentum as we enter the second half of the year, and we're confident in the updated outlook.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. Yes, let me add a little bit, Cai, in terms of the top line, maybe some perspective on the moving pieces. You saw that we took up our sales 750 at the low end, 500 at the high end. So think about the midpoint, obviously, 625. If you break that down, I would put $500 million of that is in the Pratt & Whitney business. It's really two pieces of that. About $400 million of that, 80% is in the military business. We saw really strong material inputs, particularly supporting the F135 and F117 aftermarket. We dropped that through. And the rest is slightly higher OE. You saw the numbers we had in the first and second quarter. And so, we're seeing good mix and we're letting that flow through to the full year as well. As Chris mentioned, the profit side of Pratt, we're seeing higher production costs, again, particularly in the military side of the business as we burn down the F135 contract and a little bit of higher R&D spending supporting the continued certification of the GTF advantage and obviously, the powder metal related things. At Collins, we also took that guide up a little bit, see high single-digit, I think, 7% to 8% higher end of the range that we were at before. That's about $100 million of sales. And as I think about that, it's a couple of hundred million, maybe a three points lower on the commercial OE side. We've taken our rates down on the Boeing side in particular, but offsetting that or more than offsetting that is the aftermarket and the military side of Collins as well. So about a one point increase on the commercial aftermarket, two points on defense. Just to kind of round it out, at Raytheon, we now see solid flat, if you will, organically up mid-single digits. It's about $50 million. There's slightly higher eliminations at the corporate level. We're going to kind of hold as a placeholder of what we saw in the second quarter for the rest of the year, a lot more intercompany activity between Collins and Pratt and Collins and Raytheon there. So again, we're early, we're encouraged by the first half results on the profit side. But certainly, on the top end, we're seeing a trend towards the top end of our prior ranges, taking them up slightly here. And of course, if there's more, you'll see that in the results. I want to kind of see another quarter play out.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Terrific, thank you very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Jason Gursky from Citi. Jason Gursky, your line is open.
Jason Gursky:
Great. Thank you, and good morning, everybody. And Nathan, welcome to the call. Hi Chris, I know - I recognize that you're executing on the existing engine platforms. But I'm wondering if you wouldn't spend a few minutes talking about the future. These flow coming out of Farnborough suggests maybe rolls is going to get back into the narrow-body market. GE made some comments this week on its earnings call that customer interest in the rise continues to grow. And then I think somebody at Pratt at Farnborough suggested that your next generation GTF might be 25% more fuel efficient. Not clear to me whether that was relative to the existing GTF, or it was a comment about the overall existing fleet. But I'm wondering if you can just kind of paint a picture for us, on what the next generation of engines is going to look like from your perspective, where the customers are kind of starting to have more conversations with you all about that, and what the potential timing of a new engine on the narrow-body side might be? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Thank you, Jason. And as you might imagine, having been a Farnborough this week, there was a lot of conversation around the future of narrow-body on sustainability and on when those platforms will be launched and get into service. I will just - I'll kind of maybe break this into sort of near medium and then longer term. Near medium, our focus and you sort of alluded to this, is on the GTF advantage. Right now, we're about 90-plus percent of the way through that testing. We've got some good results out of our environmental and durability, and so we're continuing down that certification path. As you know, another 1% of fuel burn, 4% thrust, but a more durable and reliable engine. So that's the near term. As we think about sort of the medium, longer term, I will tell you, we're evaluating and investing in a number of key enabling technologies for insertion into future GTF configurations. Think, composite fan blades, advanced materials like CMCs, planetary gear system. And then you referenced hybrid electric. Some of those numbers that were coming out of Farnborough are, what I would call hybrid electric or electric applications. And you think about that for the narrow-body, I view that as more of an assist, if you will, around sort of corner points of the flight envelope, lower platform, smaller platforms, the hybrid electrical view more work. And we continue to invest there and have made some really strong strides in some of our demonstrator programs. So again, we've said this before, the GTF architecture continues to have runway. And so, these are all the enabling technologies that we continue to invest in that we think we're going to be able to insert in that for the next-generation single-aisle. I'll also make the point that many of us in the industry are focused on fuel efficiency, and rightly so. I will tell you that we're also really focused on durability and reliability. As we continue to go push efficiency gains in the engine, there's always going to be trade-offs. We've got to make sure that those trades make sense, which is why we continue to invest in things like advanced coatings, and other advanced manufacturing techniques that can help with the durability of the engines. If you talk to operators today, the number one thing that they want in addition to sustainability and fuel efficiency is time on win. We've got to make sure that as we're driving efficiency and rightly so, that we're also focused on the durability of the engines in the time on wing. That's frankly how - that's what the customers need and that's what we need for our business model.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Matt Akers from Wells Fargo. Matt Akers, your line is open.
Matt Akers:
Yes. Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the question. I wanted to see if you could touch on divestitures a little bit. You've been pretty active there. Could you talk about just kind of what inning we're in there? What's left to divest? And specifically, are you able to give the revenue and EBIT contribution from the Hoist & Winch deal?
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning Matt, this is Neil. We're really happy, obviously, with some of the transactions that we've announced recently in Hoist & Winch in particular. Not going to be able to give you the numbers today, but once that transaction is closed, we'll get that out there in the right form. But we got good value there. We expect to close that in the fourth quarter as it relates to the actuation business at Collins. We are pleased to see the Italian approval in the last quarter. We're continuing to support Safran and the efforts that are required to close that transaction. Again, nothing that we see we can't get through here, but it's going to take a little bit of time, some regulatory hurdles still remain there. But there's other things we're looking at. We're always looking at the portfolio. As Chris and I have talked about, we're targeting bolt-on type M&A that fits into our technology road maps where it's appropriate. We want to be opportunistic there, but we also want to be thoughtful and careful. And then we're always looking at the portfolio from a pruning perspective, nothing to announce today. But I can tell you that we're going through a rigorous process, as we always do every year. And there'll probably be a handful of others that we come up with. We've talked about some of them in the past, but again, nothing to say today.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Maybe just to add to that, Matt, we do have a robust and rigorous process, to take a hard look at the portfolio every year. And while there are businesses that might be solid performers, we want to make sure that they fit into the criteria long-term within RTX, namely technology differentiation and strong aftermarket tails, right? So continuing to look at the portfolio through that prism. I'll also remind you that we've set up an RTX Ventures. We've been making investments in early-stage companies keeping our eye on some of those trends, both commercial and defense. And so those may yield some opportunities as well for bolt-ons that fit into, again, our criteria.
Matt Akers:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of David Strauss from Barclays. David Strauss, your line is open.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Chris Calio:
Hi David.
David Strauss:
Went through Neil, your comments on Collins and the Boeing OE reach, you said took them down. I didn't know if that meant you actually have reduced the rate at which you're building on the MAX and 787, or are you just going up more slowing? Maybe if you could clarify that? And if possible, talk about where you are exactly on the MAX and 787? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, David. Listen, I'm not going to get into specific rates per se, but I'll tell you that, obviously, we started the year with a more aggressive outlook in terms of what that rate ramp would look like. What I would tell you is that we're in the low 30s in the first half of the year. And we do expect the rate to ramp up as the year goes on. So it's not a flat rate assumption, but I'd say it's a calculated increase. And you'll be able to hear from Boeing next week. I think I'm sure they'll have something to say about their rates. I'd say today, we're aligned with the airframers, but we're monitoring it just like everybody else. On the Airbus front, Chris talked about it already same thing. We're aligned there with the Airbus team on output. There is always a desire to increase those rates, but we're doing the best we can to balance between airline customers and the OEMs here. But I'd say from an outlook perspective, we're reasonably well calibrated, barring some change that we're not aware of right now.
David Strauss:
Thanks very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Robert Spingarn from Melius Research. Robert, your line is open.
Scott Mikus:
Thank you. This is Scott Mikus on for Rob Spingarn.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Scott Mikus:
Neil or Chris in the past, you've mentioned that you don't exactly like the business model where the engine OEMs go through a heavy development cycle, lose cash on the OE sales and have to recoup your investment in the aftermarket. So I'm just wondering with the general misalignment of profit drivers between the airframers and the engine OEMs that can create tension when allocating scarce resources. On a future clean sheet aircraft program, is there going to be a broader industry discussion to better align those profit drivers between the airframers and engine OEMs?
Chris Calio:
Thanks for the question, Scott, and it's a good question. Yes, the short answer is yes, there's going to need to be a discussion around aligning our business model. And I believe that's not only in the interest of -- I'll speak from the engine side from the Pratt team, but also from the airframer team. When you are - you've got different incentives in terms of how you make your money, it does just drive a tension. And ultimately, sometimes the customer is the one that's sort of caught in between there. And so again, I think the more that we can align our business models the better will be for the OEMs and for the customer base. And you're right, the opportunity to do that is going to be on the next platform. We're already obviously entrenched in their current platforms. But I think we're both seeing this at times, misalignment play out. And I think with the new platforms, it gives us a chance with a clean sheet of paper to sketch out how do we get better aligned and better serve our customers.
Scott Mikus:
Thanks. I'll stick with one.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. Noah, your line is open.
Noah Poponak:
Hi, good morning guys.
Chris Calio:
Hi Noah.
Neil Mitchill:
Hi Noah.
Noah Poponak:
With regard to the GTF powdered metal process, is it possible to put numbers around of the number of engines that will need to come off wing, how many - what percentage even if a range have come off wing and of that, how many have actually fully gone through the full fixed process, versus are waiting in line to do so?
Chris Calio:
Thanks, Noah. So let me just step back and give you sort of a powder metal sort of ramp-up and insertion background here. So as we've talked about before, since late last year, everything coming off the line going to the OEMs had the full life powder metal parts. Now all spare engines have those as well. MRO was always a, I'll call it, a phased ramp-up. And so we'll start to see this ramp up here in the second half of the year, and it's going to continue to accelerate into 2025 and into 2026. Again, we've put a lot of emphasis on isothermal forging production. As I said, upfront, we put a lot of demand into the system, as you might imagine, given what's happened with the fleet. And we've seen some solid progress we need to continue to see some more ramp up. And as we said before, when a shop - excuse me, when an engine comes into the shop for a visit, we do an evaluation based on the work scope it needs, where it operates, when it was naturally going to see another shop visit to determine whether or not insertion of those parts makes sense. Again, we're trying to get the longest time on wing that we can and make sure that we allocate these resources appropriately. And so that -- those are all the things that go into decision as to which engines get the full life parts in, which we can do an inspection and do all the other things in the engine, because it was already slated to come back in advance of the time limits that, we've established. So there's a lot of moving pieces here. But suffice it to say, it's going to be a continued ramp back half of this year, '25 and '26 on powdered metal production and insertion and MRO.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. As you are going through incremental customer negotiations, are you finding yourself able to change assumptions either are better or worse based on what you've experienced thus far? Or is it more kind of the assumptions remain similar, because the output has been in line?
Chris Calio:
The assumptions remain similar, Noah. But I'll tell you, each customer negotiation is different based upon where they operate and how they operate. And so the agreements are tailored to those, I would say, airline-specific metrics and criteria. But we're using the same, I'll call it, key assumptions that we outlined upfront across the board.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And final question coming from the line of Scott Deuschle from Deutsche Bank. Scott, your line is open.
Scott Deuschle:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.
Chris Calio:
Hi, Scott.
Scott Deuschle:
Hi, Chris, are you seeing progress with the FAA in terms of getting some of these wide-body first-class seats certified? And then I'm sorry if I missed it, but are you seeing momentum on ramping up output on the 787 heat exchanger? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yes. Thanks, Scott. So yes, we - on the seating question, we continue to work our way through the certification there. These are actually a lot more complex, and I think people understand and the certification requirements are relatively high bar, but we think we have our arms around what we need to do there to get these certified and ultimately into the hands of airframers and the airlines. On the heat exchanger, I'll just remind everyone that, that was a part that we had to move as a result of the conflict in Russia/Ukraine, out of Russia, and then set up another source here, and set up a separate supply chain, and that has taken some time. But we're starting to ramp up there to the rates that we need to support what we think Boeing's demand is.
Scott Deuschle:
Thank you.
Chris Calio:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And with that, I will now turn the call back over to the RTX team.
Chris Calio:
All right. Thanks, Olivia. That concludes today's call. As always, I and the Investor Relations team will be available for follow-up questions. I really appreciate everyone joining us today, and have a good day.
Neil Mitchill:
So good day everybody.
Operator:
This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from RTX website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. As you all know, next week at our annual shareholders meeting, I'll be stepping down as CEO and turning the reigns over to Chris Calio. For the past two years, Chris has had responsibility for leading our three business units, Pratt & Whitney, Collins and Raytheon. There's no better evidence of his success than our results this quarter with strong sales and operating profit growth and a record backlog of over $200 billion. I'll be back at the conclusion of the call for some final comments, but let me turn it over to Chris right now to give you an overview of the company and our first quarter performance. Chris?
Chris Calio:
Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. First, I want to acknowledge and express my appreciation for Greg's leadership. He has created significant value over the last decade as CEO and has shaped RTX into the best portfolio in A&D with our three industry leading businesses leaving a strong foundation for a continued success. Before we discuss our first quarter, I want to spend a few moments on the strength of this foundation and how we plan to build upon it in 2024 and beyond. I know we've highlighted it before, but I think it's worth repeating. Collins is an industry leader, number one or number two on 70% of its product portfolio and has an off-warranty installed base of $100 billion, which will create decades of aftermarket growth. At Pratt, the large commercial engine business has an installed base of 12,000 engines and a backlog of over 10,000 GTFs, which will also drive growth for decades to come. But Pratt is much more than the GTF. Pratt & Whitney Canada remains the premier small engine business with sole source positions on over 200 platforms and 63,000 engines in service, which also comes with long aftermarket tails. And Pratt's military engine business is set to power the F-35 and B-21 bomber well into the future. At Raytheon, our defense franchises are essential to the US and our allies as they confront the threats of today and tomorrow with programs like the Patriot air defense system, GEM-T, NASAMS, SPY-6 radars, AMRAAM, Tomahawk and the Standard Missile family, and future technologies like LTAMDS, hypersonics and LRSO, the long range stand-off cruise missile. So as we move forward, our focus will continue to be transforming RTX from the best portfolio in A&D into the best company in A&D. This means being recognized by our customers as a trusted partner that executes on its commitments, it means leveraging our core operating system to help drive operational excellence in terms of quality and cost, it means being the provider of differentiated technologies that create a competitive advantage, and it means converting all of these attributes into best-in-class financial performance and long-term shareholder value. All right, with that, let me move to the quarter on Slide 2. We've gotten off to a strong start to the year, with organic sales up 12%, segment operating profit up 10%, and free cash flow in line with our expectations. Commercial OE was up 33% across RTX, driven by continued strong demand for new aircraft. The commercial aftermarket was up 11% as we continue to see strong growth in both domestic and international RPKs. So clearly the commercial arrow demand is there. But as you all know, the industry is still working through supply chain constraints and other challenges, which is leading to some OE production rate uncertainty. And this will continue to be a watch item for us for the year. On the defense side, we delivered 7% growth year-over-year and ended the quarter with a defense book-to-bill of 1.05 and a backlog of $77 billion. We're pleased the fiscal year 2024 spending bills have been enacted and provide $886 billion in defense spending, which is up 3%. But more importantly, the budget supports our key programs and technologies, including next generation propulsion, critical munitions, and upgrades to the F-135, ensuring it remains the only engine powering every variant of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The budget also supports investment in key capabilities to address current and future threats, such as systems that counter unmanned aircraft and hypersonics, where RTX provides leading technologies. And we are encouraged by the progress on the Ukraine supplemental bill, which the DoD will use to further deepen critical US munition stockpiles such as TOW, Javelin, and Excalibur, and provide needed air defense capabilities to the region with NASAMS and Patriot. Internationally, we continue to see heightened demand from US allies. In the quarter, Raytheon was awarded a $1.2 billion contract to supply Germany with additional Patriot air and missile defense systems. Okay, let me move beyond the end market dynamics and talk about some of our critical initiatives. And I'll start with an update on the GTF fleet management plan. Continue to stay on track here, and our financial and operational outlook remain consistent with our prior comments. As you may have seen, in March, the GTF airworthiness directives were issued and are consistent with our service bulletins and service instructions. On the technical side, the results from the ultrasonic angle scan inspections have all been in line with our initial expectations and assumptions. With regard to new engine production, as we said in our last call, all GTF engines being delivered to our customers' final assembly lines have full-life HPC and HPT disks. And on the MRO side, we have started the process of incorporating full-life disks into certain engine overhauls. And as we previously said, we expect to progressively ramp this effort throughout the year. In addition, the PW1100 engine shop visits completed in the quarter were in line with our plan and up 50% year-over-year. With regard to overhauled turnaround time, our average wing-to-wing turnaround time assumptions remain consistent with our prior guidance of roughly 250 to 300 days. With the AD now issued, we are now essentially at our peak AOG level. We continue to expect an average of roughly 350 AOGs from 2024 through 2026. And lastly, we have reached support agreements with nine of our customers. And these are in line with our assumptions. With that, let's turn to Slide 3 and I'll share a bit more on how we're leveraging our core operating system in digital transformation to drive quality, efficiency and productivity. As I said before, our core operating system is all about driving continuous improvements that compound over time to create a significant impact on our business. Let me give you a few recent examples. Our nacelle business within Collins deployed core across seven factories that support the A320neo program, resulting in an 8% improvement in on-time delivery and a 17% improvement in quality. And at Raytheon, on the TPY-2 program, which is a radar designed to detect and intercept ballistic missiles, we leveraged core practices to help double first-pass yield on high-volume circuit cards, resulting in a 40% reduction in manufacturing hours per unit and improved on-time delivery. We also remain committed to enhancing our factories through digitization, automation, and connected equipment. Last year, we connected 20 factories and have another 20 planned to be completed by the end of this year. Once fully connected, these factories will achieve improved overall equipment efficiency, better quality, and ultimately higher output. And lastly, we will continue to invest both directly and indirectly through RTX Ventures and our cross-company technology roadmaps to develop differentiated technologies to fill our product pipeline. These include areas such as advanced materials, electrification, power and thermal management, and microelectronics. This year, we will invest about $3 billion in company funded R&D along with $5 billion in customer funded R&D to develop new technologies and products. We are also expanding our manufacturing capacity in key areas to meet customer demand, a key priority within our $2.5 billion of capital investment in 2024. One of our most significant new products coming to the market is LTAMDS, which is the next generation advanced 360-degree air defense radar that provides significant performance improvement against a range of threats, including UAS and hypersonics. This program recently completed another successful live fire event with representatives from seven countries in attendance. We expect both the first domestic LRIP and international FMS contracts this year. And today, we're announcing $115 million expansion of our Raytheon Redstone Missile Integration Facility in Huntsville, Alabama. When complete, the factory's capacity for integrating and delivering several of our critical munitions programs will increase by more than 50%. So with the best portfolio within A&D, core driving our continuous improvement in operational excellence and ongoing investments in next generation technologies, I'm incredibly confident in RTX's future and our ability to transform into the best company in A&D. With that, let me turn it over to Neil to take you through our first quarter results. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. I'm on Slide 4. As Chris said, we got off to a really good start this year on a number of our key financial metrics across RTX with Collins, Pratt and Raytheon all making progress in line with our expectations. Additionally, we completed the sale of Raytheon cybersecurity business at the end of the first quarter with gross proceeds of $1.3 billion and we've made progress on deleveraging the balance sheet, having paid down over $2 billion of debt since we initiated the ASR last year. RTX sales of $19.3 billion were up 12% organically versus prior year, and that is on top of 10% growth in the first quarter of last year. Demand strength was also reflected in our backlog, which is now $202 billion and up 12% year-over-year. Segment operating profit growth of 10% was partially offset by expected headwinds from lower pension income and higher interest expense. And our effective tax rate for the quarter included a current period foreign tax benefit. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.34 was up 10% year-over-year. And on a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $1.28 and included $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments, a $0.21 benefit related to tax audit settlements, an $0.18 net gain related to the cyber business sale, a $0.13 charge related to initiating alternative titanium sources, and $0.03 of restructuring and other nonrecurring items. And finally, free cash flow was an outflow of $125 million in the first quarter, in line with our expectations, and a $1.3 billion year-over-year improvement. As planned, the timing of defense milestones and increase in shop visits, along with inventory build to support our growth drove higher working capital this quarter. Okay. Let me turn to our business units and some of the progress we made in the quarter. You heard Chris give a status update on the GTF fleet management plan, so let me touch on our top priorities at Raytheon and Collins. At Raytheon, the business continues to see incredible demand. And as we said on our last call, we're taking actions to advance our key franchises, improve our supply chain, and drive margin expansion. In the quarter, Raytheon saw 50 basis points of sequential margin improvement and 20 basis points on a year-over-year basis. On the material front, we saw a double-digit increase in material receipts in the first quarter versus prior year, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, which of course is driving the top line, but more importantly, helping to alleviate bottlenecks in the manufacturing processes and burn down overdue sales. Moving over to Collins, our focus remains on driving incremental margins through continued commercial OE and aftermarket growth and the benefit from ongoing structural cost reduction. In the quarter, Collins saw strong sales growth and 90 basis points of margin expansion on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. And we expect future volume increases to drive continued fixed cost absorption benefits across the business this year. On the cost reduction front, we continue to make progress as well. For example, Collins is in the process of shifting 2.7 million manufacturing hours to best cost locations by the end of 2025. To date, over 2 million of those hours have already been moved, with 400,000 more planned for the rest of the year. And finally, we also achieved an incremental $105 million of RTX gross merger cost synergies in the quarter, and we're approaching the $2 billion target we updated last year. So good progress on our top priorities to start the year. With that, based on our first quarter results and strong backlog, we remain on track to deliver our full year outlook, including full year sales of between $78 billion and $79 billion, which translates to between 7% and 8% organic revenue growth. In addition, we continue to see adjusted earnings per share between $5.25 and $5.40 and free cashflow of approximately $5.7 billion. Now, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results. Jennifer?
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on Slide 5, sales were $6.7 billion in the quarter, up 9% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by continued strength in commercial aftermarket and OE. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 14%, driven by a 17% increase in parts and repair, a 16% increase in provisioning, and a 3% decrease in mods and upgrades. Commercial OE sales for the quarter were up 14% versus the prior year, driven by growth in wide-body, narrow-body and bizjet platforms. And defense sales were up 1%, primarily due to higher volume. Adjusted operating profit of $1.05 billion was up $145 million, or 16% from the prior year, which dropped through on higher commercial aftermarket volume, partially offset by unfavorable OE mix, higher space program costs, and increased R&D expense. Looking ahead, on a full-year basis, we continue to expect Collins sales to grow mid to high single-digits on both an adjusted and organic basis with operating profit growth between $650 million and $725 million versus 2023. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 6. Sales of $6.5 billion were up 23% on both an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all three channels. Commercial OE sales were up 64% in the quarter and higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in the large commercial engine business. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 9% in the quarter, driven by higher volume within large commercial engines, primarily related to GTF overhaul activity, as well as an increased volume at Pratt Canada. Legacy large commercial engine aftermarket revenues were down slightly versus prior year as a result of increased allocation of material to support the GTF fleet. And in the military engine business, sales were up 21%, primarily driven by higher sustainment volume across the F-135, F-117, and F-100 platforms, and higher development volume, primarily driven by the F-135 engine core upgrade program. Adjusted operating profit of $430 million was flat to prior year. The benefit of favorable commercial OE mix and drop through on higher commercial aftermarket volume was partially offset by headwinds from increased commercial OE deliveries, unfavorable commercial aftermarket mix, and the absence of a favorable $60 million prior contract matter. Higher military volume and favorable mix was more than offset by higher R&D and SG&A expenses. Turning to Pratt's full year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow low double digits on an adjusted and organic basis and adjusted operating profit to grow between $400 million and $475 million versus 2023, as large commercial engine aftermarket continues to ramp and military volume grows. Now turning to Raytheon on Slide 7. Sales of $6.7 billion in the quarter were up 6% on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by higher volume on land and air defense systems and advanced technology programs. The increase in land and air defense system programs reflect higher customer demand for the Patriot, counter-UAS systems, and NASAMS. Adjusted operating profit for the quarter of $630 million was up $46 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volume and improved net productivity, partially offset by unfavorable mix. Also recall that Q1 2023 net productivity included the exercise of a significant unfavorable contract option that did not repeat in the first quarter of this year. Bookings and backlog remain very strong. In the first quarter, bookings of $8.1 billion resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.23 and a backlog of $53 billion. In addition to the German Patriot award that Chris mentioned earlier, Raytheon also saw significant orders for the GEM-T, NASAMS, and classified work. Looking ahead, we continue to expect Raytheon sales to grow low to mid-single-digits organically, with operating profit up between $100 million and $200 million versus 2023. As a reminder, the profit outlook includes an $80 million year-over-year headwind from the sale of the cybersecurity business. With that, I'll turn it back to Chris to wrap things up.
Chris Calio:
Thanks, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. With our portfolio strength and current demand, our overall backlog is at a record $202 billion. And our focus as a team remains on executing this backlog to meet our customer commitments and driving operational performance. And our top priorities for the year remain unchanged. First, at Pratt, it's about continuing to execute the GTF fleet management plan. Second, at Raytheon, it's about delivering the backlog and improved margins. And third, at Collins, it's about generating strong incremental margins. As I discussed, our core operating system underpins our execution on these priorities and drives continuous improvement across RTX. At the same time, we're investing over $10 billion in research and development, modernization, and digital capabilities, continuing to evaluate our portfolio for incremental opportunities to further enhance our focus and prioritize future investments. And as we do this, we remain on track to return $36 billion to $37 billion of capital to shareowners from the date of the merger through next year. So with that, let me turn it over to Neil.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. Before we go into Q&A, I want to quickly update everyone on an Investor Relations team leadership transition. After three years leading the team, Jennifer Reed is moving on to her next opportunity. Jennifer took the helm in an unprecedented environment and worked tirelessly to ensure all of our stakeholders had timely and clear information during the critical post-merger years for RTX. I want to thank Jennifer for her leadership and I also want to introduce Nathan Ware, who is coming over from our Collins business to lead Investor Relations. Some of you will remember Nathan as he was a member of the UTC IR team leading up to the merger. But since then, Nathan has held a couple of roles at Collins and most recently as CFO of the Interiors business. Jennifer and Nathan will work to ensure a smooth transition for all of us and all of you. And with that, we are ready to open the line for our first question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research. Your question please, Myles.
Myles Walton:
Thanks, good morning. And thanks for the help, Jennifer, over the years. Can you talk to the Pratt aftermarket first to start and sort of if there is risk to achieving the full year guidance, given the harder comps that play out for the rest of the year, given the 9% in the first quarter and low double digits expected for the full year?
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Myles. This is Neil. I'll start out, and Chris can add anything here. But a couple of things on the Pratt aftermarket. I think 9% aftermarket growth in the first quarter was largely as we expected. We took the first quarter to make sure that we started off on a strong foot with respect to the GTF aftermarket overhauls, and I'm sure Chris can provide a little more color there. In doing so, there was a little bit lighter material allocation to the V2500s. We're actually down a handful of shop visits year-over-year in the first quarter, a little bit -- around 175 or so. We still feel confident though that we'll hit 800 shop visit inductions on the V2500 for the full year. And so what we expect to play out over the remainder of the year is that we will see more and more of those shop visits come in. We'll also see the content on those shop visits increase. So we'll see better drop through on the legacy aftermarket. Back in January, we talked about the PW2000s and PW4000s. There's some puts and takes there. They largely offset for the year. So it's really about seeing that legacy aftermarket continue to grow. So full year, still expect low teens sort of growth in the aftermarket of Pratt and we're confident that we'll see the material flowing to support that.
Chris Calio:
Yeah, I mean, I guess the only thing I would add, Myles -- this is Chris -- is to Neil's point, we know we needed to come out of the gate strong on GTF MRO given the situation in the fleet management plan. And so we were allocating material and resources with that in mind. And I think we saw the fruits of that here in the first quarter. But as Neil said, we continue to see the demand on what we call the mature fleets, the V and others. And that ramp up is calibrated in our number for the year. So still feel confident it's going to deliver the full year shop visits that we need.
Myles Walton:
All right, thanks. Makes sense.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Kristine.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Chris Calio:
Morning, Kristine.
Kristine Liwag:
Greg, thank you for your leadership over the years. And, Jennifer, wish you the best in your next endeavor. So, maybe on GTF, Chris, thank you for providing more color in the GTF fleet management plan. And at this point, it seems like everything is progressing well. So as we look forward to understanding the risk retirement, are there other milestones you're monitoring to see if there could be potential risk reduction? Is there a number of specific completed AOGs or more customer agreements to be completed? Any sort of gauge to help us understand risk retirement would be helpful?
Chris Calio:
Sure. Thanks, Kristine. Good morning. So look, the GTF fleet management plan is a multiyear process, and we're going to continue to grind through that over the next three years or so. And we've laid out all of the key enablers. We listed them on the call today. We've done it historically. And that's going to be AOG levels. That's going to be turnaround times. And so, again, we've given those sort of ranges on each of those key enablers, and we're going to continue to do everything we can to stay within or move to the lower end of those ranges. And again, the single biggest enabler for us is MRO output. We have a very good first quarter, but we've got a large growth plan here in 2024. And so for us, it's about material flow, including the new powdered metal parts that we're going to be putting into the engines as we said during the last call and during our comments. We continue to add the full life HPC and HPT in MRO, and it's going to ramp throughout the year. So that will be a key indicator for us. The more output we can get, obviously the more relief we can get the fleet, the less AOG days, and then the less penalties. It's really that simple. So for us, it's all about the MRO enablers, chief among them, continuing to ramp up the powdered metal part production and insertion into MRO. [Technical Difficulty]
Kristine Liwag:
Great. Thank you very much.
Chris Calio:
Yeah. Sorry about that feedback there, Kristine. So hopefully that all came through.
Kristine Liwag:
Very helpful. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Your question please, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, thanks very much and good morning. Maybe kind of a small picture question here, but it is one that we get a lot. When you think about the trajectory of aircraft on ground, and it seems like we are right around the highest level we'll see here at -- in the 550-ish level, when we think about where that goes from here, do we think of that more as a plateau for the remainder of the year or for a couple of quarters? Or do we start to see some progress there? And when you think about where turnaround times are kind of now and the improvement that you can make over the next few quarters, is there anything that you can kind of lay out for us to gauge that?
Chris Calio:
Hey Seth, this is Chris. Thanks for the question. Yeah, so look, we are as we said in our comments essentially at peak AOG. I mean, there'll be some perturbations a little bit above, a little bit below, but we see that as kind of the peak and we're going to start to gradually chip away and move that down. So again, as I said to Kristine's question, the number one enabler of that is our MRO output. And again, strong start to the quarter but we've got a big plan for the year and we're focused on turnaround times and new material. At the end of the day, in terms of our MRO output, it's not so much about capacity. We've got enough shops, we've got enough labor, it's about material flow. The faster that we can flow material, faster we can take turnaround times down, increase output, and then burn down the backlog of those engines waiting for induction.
Seth Seifman:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Your question please, Ron.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Ron.
Ron Epstein:
Could you speak a little bit to the supplemental that got through the house and how that plays out for your defense business. What goodies are in there for you guys?
Chris Calio:
Hey, good morning, Ron. This is Chris. So, as I'm sure you've seen, if you break down sort of the supplemental into its big buckets, it's about $60 billion for Ukraine, another $25 billion or so for Israel, and $10 billion for INDOPACOM. So, when we look at our product portfolio against those big buckets, we look at Ukraine and say about two-thirds of that is addressable with RTX products. Think GEM-T, NASAMS, Patriot, AMRAAM, AIM9X, Israel, we kind of handicapped that as about 30% addressable, stockpile replenishment, Iron Dome, David's Sling procurements, and then INDOPACOM, again, roughly that 30% addressable with the RTX product suite, namely SM-6, Tomahawk, AIM9X. So again, the services will have their specific lists of what they're looking for, but again we think our product portfolio is pretty well positioned to address the needs in each of those theaters.
Ron Epstein:
Great, and if I may, just a quick follow on. You had some challenges with the fixed development -- fixed price development program within missiles. How's that going?
Chris Calio:
Yeah, so again, when you look at the productivity story at Raytheon, Ron, that's a big part of the continued margin expansion. And so in the quarter we saw improvements in productivity, which is really helpful. Again, as you know, our productivity plan for the year is effectively no productivity, but last year, of course, we had some headwinds in the productivity department. So again, overall an improvement for the year. We've still got some classified programs, fixed price that we are continuing to work through. We said that's kind of a 12 to 18 month journey as we work through those. I would say on a number of them, we've made some good progress towards milestones and others we're going to continue to battle our way through during that period.
Neil Mitchill:
Chris, I'll just add with respect to the productivity, in the first quarter we saw about a $58 million year-over-year Q1 to Q1 improvement. Of course, we had the exercise of an option last year, which accounts for maybe, 55% of that improvement. But nonetheless, we're expecting $200 million year-over-year and continue to expect $200 million year-over-year. And so, good progress in the first quarter. But there's still three quarters to go, but we are encouraged by the shift that we've seen here in the first quarter so far.
Ron Epstein:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr of TD Cowen. Your question please, Cai.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thanks so much. So you had a 23% gain at Pratt in the first quarter. If we're going to low double digits, call it 11%, 12%, you have to have a sharp deceleration as you go through the year and yet you're still guiding to what, low teens for the aftermarket which would suggest either your total guide is low or we're going to see a flat to down year in commercial or military as we go through the year. Can you give us some color in terms of each of those three parts of Pratt's business and their quarterly sequence as we move through the year?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Kai, let me start here. I mean, we had a really strong start to Pratt's first quarter. Most of that was on the back of commercial OE deliveries, up 40% almost in the first quarter on a unit basis. So that obviously drove the top line and some good mix there too between installs and spare engines as we look to position the GTF fleet as best we can to start the year. I think some of that's going to moderate clearly as the rest of the year unfolds. So I think we had a good start out of the gate on installs. On the aftermarket side, you're right, we're going to see more of the mid-single-digit type of growth in the next three quarters. So again, that will be fueled by V2500s coming up a little bit. The top line is going to be also bolstered by GTF aftermarket, which of course doesn't come with nearly as much profit, but will certainly help the fleets get healthier. And military also had a really strong first quarter start. The material coming in in the first quarter was positioned to support the aftermarket principally in the military business. And we do see that slowing down a bit in the next part of the year. So those are the key ingredients. Not going to get into the specifics on a quarterly cadence here, but we're just one quarter into the year, but do -- a good start to the year, and we'll see we're kind of holding on to our guidance at this point.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your line is open, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hey, good morning, Chris and Neil. Thank you. And, Jennifer, congratulations on your next move. Wishing you all the best and thank you. I wanted to ask one on Collins, maybe Neil or Chris. Just the guidance for the year implies a step up 16.6% margins versus a 15.7% adjustment in the quarter -- adjusted basis in the quarter. Can you maybe talk about what drives that margin expansion as we progress through the year at Collins and if you could give us any more detail on the impairment of $175 million?
Neil Mitchill:
All right, let me start, Sheila. As I think about -- first, let's start with the first quarter for Collins. It was a really good quarter. We had about $145 million of profit growth on an adjusted basis. We've talked about the Collins growth trajectory really being driven by the aftermarket. Now, there's still a long ways to go. We put out a range of $650 million to $725 million for the full year. And so what we're going to see is increased drop-through on the continued cost reduction essentially that Collins embarked upon several years ago. And we're starting to see the cost associated with achieving that cost reduction ease, as well as the benefit from the actions start to drop through in the form of stronger incrementals. So feel like the aftermarket trajectory supports that at this juncture. And that I think is going to really continue to be the key driver for the Collins profit growth for the rest of the year. If I just comment for a minute on the $175 million. As we said in our remarks, that charge related to some procurement of titanium, which I know you all know is an important commodity for the aerospace industry. Given a number of ongoing supply chain dynamics around aerospace-grade titanium in particular, especially as it relates to the titanium that we use in our landing gear manufacturing at Collins, we've taken some steps to secure alternative sources for that supply. And it's taken us some time to do that, frankly. So specific to the charge, we reached an agreement with tow new suppliers during the quarter in connection with those agreements as well as some sanctions imposed by Canada, which were announced in February. We took a charge to reflect two things. One was the higher purchase commitment cost that came about as a result of these two new agreements. And the second is the impairment of about $75 million of costs that had been previously capitalized on the balance sheet associated with a specific program that are no longer recoverable. So as we talked about since 2022, we've been evaluating our global sourcing strategies to mitigate the potential impact of sanctions and other restrictions. And frankly, we've de-risked that in many areas. And I think this is an important step in putting this issue behind us. So, feel good about the agreements we have, but they're certainly at a higher cost, and so we took a charge to deal with that.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein. Please go ahead, Doug.
Doug Harned:
Yes, good morning. Thank you. On the defense side, so in Raytheon you made a leadership transition, Wes Kremer retired in Q1. Can you talk about how, if at all, you're thinking about the strategy differently? And I'd say in two areas, one, you mentioned a little bit about this before in terms of bringing margins up to your objectives in 2025, which presumably fixed price contracts play into that, but also the supply chain progress. And then second, back in Paris, you talked about a need for a new strategy on the space side, to really reinvigorate growth there. Can you comment on how you're thinking about those now with the new leader in place in Phil Jasper? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yep. You bet, Doug. Good morning. This is Chris. So let's start first on the first part of your question here on the supply chain and Raytheon margins and how we're thinking about that. If you just take a step back for a sec, Doug, it's a tremendous backlog at Raytheon. You saw the increase here in Q1. A big part of that, obviously, is the continued focus on execution, in particular the supply chain. We've had four consecutive quarters of material receipt growth at Raytheon. So feeling like the focus on the supply chain and the health of the supply chain is starting to pay dividends and we're seeing that flow through, again, with some of the margin increases here in Q1. And so again, Phil and team are incredibly focused on execution, head down and execution on this backlog at the margins that we need. And again, big part of that is supply chain. And we're adding production capacity as well to meet the demands of this ramp. You heard us announce today Huntsville. Last quarter we talked about the expansion in Camden, Arkansas. So again, putting in the production capacity that we need in driving material. So that's where the focus is. On space, we did talk about a bit of a pivot, Doug, from a space prime, if you will, to being more of a component supplier to the space primes. And I think when you look at our strengths in that portfolio, I think that pivot is the right one. We've got historical strength in some of the exquisite space areas. We've got some other strengths in some of the key components that go in to the prime satellites and buses. But again, I think that's where we're going to be shifting away from perhaps being a space prime to being more of a component supplier.
Doug Harned:
Very good, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays. Your line is open, David.
David Strauss:
Thanks, Good morning. Best of luck, Greg. I enjoyed working with you. Same thing, Jennifer. Chris, on the GTF plan, I think it's calling for disc replacement, replacement on 3,000 or so engines. Can you just tell us at this point how many have actually seen full replacement actually having been done at this point? That's my first question. Then the second question, you reached an agreement with Spirit Airlines in the quarter that was made public. Is that amount kind of on a per-AOG basis representative of your other customer agreements? Because that would seem to imply a higher compensation number than you've baked into your forecast? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yep. So on the first question, David, yeah, the disc replacement. So, again, we're at early stages. I told you this was going to be a three-year process. Again, the priority was making sure everything we delivered to our customers' final assembly lines had the full life powder metal parts and that's what's happening today. It was going to be a ramp throughout the year into ‘25 on insertion of those full life parts into MRO. So I would say today it's early days. And so there haven't been a ton that have received all of those things. But as we said before, we're working hard to optimize the work scopes there, depending on where the engine is operating, what configuration it has, was it going to come in for another visit within this time frame anyway depending on where it operated. So again, the focus is on output and part of that is optimizing the work scope. But again, early days. As for the customer compensation, we've got about nine agreements under our belt, which represents about a third of the fleet. I think we're close on a number of other significant ones, and the compensation on all those remains within the guidance that we provided on this.
David Strauss:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard of Vertical Research. Your line is open, Rob.
Rob Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Rob.
Rob Stallard:
Greg, all the best for the future, and Jennifer, thanks for all your help. It's been interesting times, obviously.
Greg Hayes:
Obviously.
Rob Stallard:
A question for Chris probably. At Collins, there's clearly some things going on with the 737 MAX at the moment. I was wondering what sort of implications they could potentially be for the Collins business and what do you see as the risk of potential de-stocking as this year progresses?
Chris Calio:
Yeah. Hey, Rob. Yeah, as you pointed out, significant content at Collins on 737 and 787, so across the main growth platforms there at Boeing. I would say that, I mean, we've kind of mentioned this upfront, we've got some, I guess, some uncertainty around rates today. We think that we've calibrated a lot of that in, but again I know the Boeing company will provide their guidance tomorrow, so we won't get out ahead of them. We're just kind of focused on working with them, supporting them through the dynamics in play, and preparing to take whatever actions we think necessary, depending on the guidance that they provide. But I'll just say that the team has worked very hard to go drive the material and we need to support their rates, and we've got the capacity to do so.
Rob Stallard:
Okay, thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Chris Calio:
Hi, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Two follow-ups on topics already asked about, but on the powdered metal process, can you quantify even if roughly how many engines that are off wing are actually in an MRO facility now versus waiting in line to get into one? And then, Neil, on the defense margins, the guidance implies that each quarter, the rest of the year looks roughly similar to the first quarter. You have the framework next year for a decent amount of expansion. I would have thought you would have sort of ramped through this year into that ‘25 expansion. How do we kind of flip in ‘25 or do I just have the numbers off there?
Neil Mitchill:
No, let me start with defense and I'll hand it off to Chris to hit your first question. But, listen, I think we had a number of headwinds last year. I think you're all well aware of that. And so as we put together our outlook for this year, we essentially assumed no productivity for the year. Now, as Chris said, and I talked about earlier, that's a significant step-up from what we experienced last year, and largely last year was driven by a handful of fixed price development programs, but we're not out of the woods there. So what I would say is, we took an approach that is not assuming a huge uptick. Remember, this is a business that several years ago was kicking off $300 million, $400 million, and $500 million of positive productivity. There is still positive productivity in the Raytheon business each quarter, but it's been overwhelmed by the negatives. And so at this point, I think we're really pleased to see a quarter like this to start the year. There's work to do, obviously, to get multiple quarters together that look like this one going forward. And that's what we're focused on. We're really focused on improving the health of the supply chain and moving the material through that you could see has come in, and now we got to get it through the entire manufacturing process to meet these important needs of our customers. And that's really where our focus is. I do think it will step up in ‘25. One encouraging thing is we had significant orders during the quarter and the margins in that new backlog are very healthy. The mix of those new orders, about 60% foreign sales. So it's a good start, but one quarter at a time. Chris, maybe a couple of comments?
Chris Calio:
Yeah, sure. So I'm not going to get into the specific numbers on where things stand in terms of those engines waiting to be inducted. But again, you look at the turnaround times, the extended turnaround times that we've talked about, engines coming off today are going to have to wait a bit before they actually do get inducted and enter into gate one in the MRO process. Suffice it to say, and we kind of alluded to this up front, big step up this year in GTF shop visits. And that's why we've played a little bit of the allocation game, in the last year, early this year, to get off to a strong start there. Again we've got a big ramp on GTF MRO throughout the year in order to support this fleet. Again we think we've got the capacity to do it, the labor to do it, the partners in our MRO shops who are incredibly adept at this, it's about material flow.
Noah Poponak:
Neil, the fixed price development programs that have been a challenge in Raytheon Defense, when do those end? When do those move out of development?
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, so here's a couple ways to look at it. About 1% of our existing Raytheon backlog today constitutes those programs. And I'd say it's about 12 to 18 months. There's a few of them. So we still have a little ways to go. We are making progress, critical milestones on each program. In the first quarter, we had net unfavorable productivity of about $28 million. Nearly all of that was associated with these programs. So there's still some headwinds that we're encountering as we get additional technical learning and going through testing. But that's the timeframe and that's the magnitude I would put on it.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, thanks for taking my questions. And, Greg and Jennifer, thanks for all the help over the years.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Noah.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Peter, please go ahead.
Peter Arment:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and Greg and Jennifer, best of luck. I’ve enjoyed it over the years. Chris, on Raytheon, Europe continues to be a really strong region for bookings. Maybe you could talk about the outlook there and how should we think about, I guess Neil just touched upon it, the FMS mix kind of ramping and going to benefit margins. Is this -- should we expect the FMS mix to kind of be a multi-year process as it plays out where that shows up favorably on margins, but also just maybe just talk about the outlook on bookings? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yeah, I think that's right, Peter. I think it is a multi-year process. To your point, if you just think about what's going on out there today, the integrated air missile defense, the demand there is exceptionally strong. Obviously, Patriot, NASAMS and of course, GEM-T and the like, you saw a huge order from NATO at the end of last year for us, and the demand continues to be really strong. To your point, when we look at our margins throughout the year, our margin progression story at Raytheon, we're expecting a tailwind from mix as we increase the international backlog. About 60% of Raytheon's Q1 bookings were international, and so that's provided us a nice tailwind, and we expect that to continue.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color. Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Matt.
Matt Akers:
Yeah. Hi, good morning everybody. Good luck, Greg and Jennifer. I had a couple of questions. One, what's the current wing-to-wing turnaround time for GTF full stop visit? Is it close to that 250, 300 days, or is it shorter and it sort of builds as the pipeline of planes waiting gets bigger than, I think you might have said, Pratt aftermarket, mid-single digits, the rest of the quarter. Did I mishear that? Is that actually mid-teens?
Chris Calio:
So let me start with the, now with the wing to wing turnaround time. Yeah, it's in that range that we've provided in that 250, 300. Again, a lot of that will continue to be dependent on the mix of work scopes. We're still believing that it's going to be more of a 90% heavy, 10% lighter shop visit. And with that, we'll stay within that range. If we can find a way to come up with medium work scopes and other things that can alleviate the need for new, we'll call it non-powdered metal, material repair development and the like, perhaps we'll be closer to the lower end of that range, but we're in there today, given the shop visit mix that we see and the material flow that we see.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. Matt…
Matt Akers:
Great. I guess the aftermarket?
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, sorry. I didn't put my mic on. Just a couple of clarifications. So, When I said mid-single digits, I was referring to the military growth. We had really strong growth, obviously, in the first quarter. On the aftermarket, think about that as low to mid-teens for the rest of the year.
Matt Akers:
Great. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
Yep.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky of Citigroup. Please go ahead, Jason.
Jason Gursky:
Yeah, good morning, everyone. Jennifer, Greg, best of luck with your new roles and ventures, and Nathan, welcome back. Chris, just a quick question for you on Raytheon and the defense side of the business. Solid book-to-bill here in the first quarter. So I'm wondering if you can talk about the pipeline that you see here for the next 12 to 24 months and what you think the book-to-bill is going to look like over that time period. Do we have a prolonged period here of book-to-bills above 1 that forecast or shadow -- yeah, forecast growth here for multiple years? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yeah. Hey, Jason. Look, I think, given the threat environment we described and we kind of laid out in the question on the supplemental, we're going to continue to see strong top line growth at Raytheon and strength in bookings. And again, if you just kind of go region by region, it's replenishment in the US, it's the integrated air and missile defense in Europe, it's naval munitions in Asia. So, again, feel like the strength of demand is going to continue to be there. And then the other thing I'll say, Jason, is we're also thinking through some of the advanced capabilities that we're trying to bring to market as well. LTAMs, which I mentioned up front, the 360-degree radar, the refresh on AMRAAM, SPY-6 radar, which has gone through its initial sea trials, counter-UAS capabilities with our Coyote system, and then things like high-power microwave as you look to sort of the drone swarm threat that continues to build. So again, strong demand for the existing pipeline of products. We continue to invest in that next generation product, which we think meets the emerging threats.
Jason Gursky:
And to be clear [indiscernible] you think that leads to a book-to-bill above 1 here for this year and maybe going into ‘25?
Neil Mitchill:
I was just going to comment on the book-to-bill. I mean, certainly, really strong first quarter With top line sales projected to where we see them, it's obviously going to change the math a little bit on the book-to-bill calculation, but we still expect a book to bill over 1.1 for this year. And I think it's going to be strong next year. But obviously as sales go up too, that'll level off a little bit. But the backlog is going to continue to grow. To put a finer point on some of the awards for this year, we see AMRAAM, we've talked about LTAMDS, both with the US Army and Poland, certainly Patriot, SPY-6, and SM-3. So a good list of potential things. The large international ones can be lumpy. They can come in this year. They could fall into next year. But, we see a lot of demand signals that are really strong there.
Jason Gursky:
Great. And thanks [for cutting you out] (ph) before you could get to it, Neil. Appreciate it.
Neil Mitchill:
No problem. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question -- our final question comes from the line of Gavin Parson of UBS. Your question please, Gavin.
Gavin Parson:
Thanks. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Gavin.
Gavin Parson:
First, I was wondering if you guys could just give an update on what ratio of GTF customer compensation agreements have actually been completed. And then second, if you could just give a little more detail on the OE rate uncertainty you talked about. I know we're waiting for Boeing tomorrow, but if you're actually already seeing a lower pull on any of those programs and if that's considered in Collins guidance? Thank you.
Chris Calio:
Yep, sure, Gavin, This is Chris. So again, on the GTF customer piece, we've set up front, we got about nine done. We're in the final throes of a few more and those nine that we've got under our belt represent about a third of the GTF fleet total. And then on the rates again, Boeing will provide the guidance tomorrow. I just think we're very much embedded with them 737, 787. What do we need to do to support a ramp on 787? And then what do we need to do to help them go wherever they need to on 737? And so we won't get out ahead of them, but just know that we're working a number of scenarios and we'll take whatever action is necessary based upon what they need.
Gavin Parson:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Greg Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thank you, Latif. I'll keep these comments brief, but as I step back from the day-to-day responsibility as CEO of RTX, I want to take this opportunity to thank our team for their trust and support over this past decade. Any success we have had is the result of the hard work and dedication of the entire team, the senior leadership team, but also the whole 185,000 people that make RTX a great company that it is. I also want to thank our investors. It's been an interesting decade or so in the role. And thank you for your patience as we've transitioned and transformed what was United Technologies, a multi-industry company, into RTX, which is, I believe, the best positioned A&D company in the world today. We've got great products, great portfolio of people and technologies, and a great backlog that I think is going to serve us well into the future. There is, of course, always more to do. We can talk a lot about that. I think Chris is absolutely on the right track, that is focusing on execution, focusing on technology and making sure we have the best team possible. And I can't think of a better leader than Chris to lead RTX for the next decade or so. You should all know that Chris has the full support of the Board, but not just the Board, the entire senior leadership team and the entire organization. And I look forward to working with Chris in the near term and watching from the sidelines beyond that as he is successful. I also want to thank Jennifer. Jennifer and I have worked together for a decade from Sikorsky's disposition to the integration of Raytheon and UTC and lately for the last three years as Head of Investor Relations, she's been a great resource for the company and a great friend. So, Jennifer, thank you. With that I think that's all. Thanks for listening today. Jennifer, Nathan and team will be available all day to answer whatever questions you have. But thanks for listening and take care.
Operator:
This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners, that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone opportunity to participate. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
All right, thank you, and good morning, everyone. We've got a lot to cover today, but let me start with the news we shared last month, which I'm sure you all saw. Effective on May 2, the date of our annual share owners meeting, Chris Calio will become the new CEO of RTX. Chris's appointment is the result of a very deliberate and thoughtful succession planning process conducted by our Board of Directors over the past three years. While I'm going to remain in my role as Executive Chairman, Chris will be taking the reins of the company. As you all know, I've worked with Chris for many years and I can't think of a better person to take on this role. Chris has a deep understanding of our industry our customers' needs, and our operation. And most importantly, he's an outstanding leader. Here I'd like to say that I'm honored to have led this organization for almost the last 10-years. But most importantly, I'd like to thank each and every employee, who has supported our mission over the last decade. We would not have been able to accomplish all we did if not for you. Going forward, I have the utmost confidence in Chris's ability to lead this great company and continue to drive performance and value creation for all of our stakeholders for years to come. With that, let me turn it over to Chris to take you through an update on our end markets and the year. Chris?
Chris Calio:
Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you, Greg. I'd like to start by thanking all RTX employees for their contributions last year. And I want to share how humbled I am that our board has given me the opportunity to lead this world-class team. As we move forward, our focus will continue to be on delivering our record backlog, accelerating innovation, and driving operational performance across the portfolio to meet our customer and shareholder expectations. I'd also like to acknowledge a couple of other leadership changes we've recently announced. First I'd like to thank Wes Kremer for his significant contributions to the company as he transitions into retirement. Over the course of his 20-year career here, Wes has led the development of some of Raytheon’s most successful programs, including LTAMs, Standard Missile 3, and a range of strategic missile defense systems that defend the homeland and our allies. Wes has also played a critical role in restructuring the Raytheon business unit to better align with the needs of our customers. With Wes's retirement, Phil Jasper has been appointed as President of the Raytheon business. Phil brings with him over 30-years of experience in aerospace and defense, and most recently led the Collins Mission Systems business, where he played a critical role in integrating RTX's connected battle solutions this past year. Phil's deep knowledge of our military customers and their priorities, and his experience leading many business transformation initiatives throughout his career, positions him well to lead Raytheon. Now, before I cover the highlights of the year, let me get into an update on our end markets. First and foremost, demand for our products and services in both commercial aerospace and defense has never been stronger. Air travel has returned to, and in some cases surpassed, pre-pandemic levels, and the global threat environment is driving unprecedented demand, especially in air defense systems. Starting with commercial aero, we saw solid air traffic growth this past year with global revenue passenger miles back to 2019 levels and domestic air travel now 5% above 2019 levels as we exited the year. The strong recovery has helped drive significant aftermarket demand for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft, with growth expected to continue into 2024. On the defense side, increases in global spending have led to a defense backlog which is now at $78 billion, up $9 billion from a year ago. Just this past quarter, we received a GEMT order with $2.8 billion from NATO, which is the largest GEMT contract recorded in Raytheon history. Domestically, we are pleased that a bipartisan funding agreement has been reached supporting increased defense spending and expect Congress will complete their work on the full-year ‘24 appropriations bill in the next several weeks. With that, let me turn to slide two, provide an update on 2023, and I'll start with some of the highlights. We delivered $74.3 billion in adjusted sales for the full-year, up 11% organically and adjusted EPS of $5.06 was up 6% year-over-year, both of which were ahead of our outlook. And more importantly, we ended the year with $5.5 billion in free cash flow, which also exceeded our commitment. On a full-year basis, commercial aftermarket was up 23%, commercial OE was up 20%, and defense was up 4%. On the capital allocation front, we returned over $16 billion of capital to share owners for the year, including $12.9 billion of share repurchases supported by our $10 billion ASR and $3.2 billion in dividends. We're beginning the process of deleveraging this year to ensure we maintain a strong balance sheet, which will be in part supported by the closure of our previously announced divestitures. At the same time, we remain focused on ensuring that business continues to be positioned to achieve sustained growth. In 2023, we spent almost $10 billion in CapEx in company and customer funded R&D, while capturing $95 billion in new bookings, resulting in company-wide backlog growth of 12% in a book-to-bill of 1.28, ending the year with a record RTX backlog of $196 billion. So while there's a lot of positive momentum in our markets and across the business, we have two matters we've been heavily focused on, Pratt's powdered metal situation and Raytheon's margins. So let me hit these two head on and I'll start with powdered metal. Our top priority continues to be executing on our fleet management plans, and both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with our call last October. While we are still in the early stages, I'm going to provide a few more details on the progress we've made to-date. As you saw, Pratt has issued the necessary service bulletins and service instructions to operators, which are entirely consistent with our underlying financial and operational assumptions that we previously communicated. The FAA is in the process of drafting the corresponding airworthiness directives, which we expect to be issued within the next month or so. And just as a reminder, it is common practice for a fleet management plan to be communicated through multiple service bulletins and airworthiness directives to address different engine models, compliance times, or components and sections of the engine. Continue to conduct ultrasonic angle scan inspections and powder metal parts, and our findings remain consistent with our prior analysis and assumptions. Let me now turn to our industrial plans. You'll recall our focus is on ramping production of HPT and HPC disks to support both OE and MRO deliveries. We've made solid progress here as well. Continue to secure the necessary machining and inspection capacity for increased disk production. Today, all OE GTF engines being delivered to our customers final assembly lines contain disks produced from powdered metal manufactured after Q3 2021 and have full certified lives. On the GTF MRO front, we have begun installing full life disks during certain shop visits. And the number of engines receiving full life disks in MRO will increase throughout the year as we continue to ramp up production of these parts. Our estimated wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with our prior guidance. Pratt grew GTF MRO output by almost 30% year-over-year in 2023, while also making investments in additional shops, test cell capacity, and repair capability to support even more growth in 2024. With respect to the number of AOGs, we continue to expect the roughly 350 on average that we previously guided. However, we will likely see a lower peak level than previously anticipated due to the timing of the AD issuance and proactive fleet management by our customers. Additionally, our conversations with customers continue to progress. To-date, we have finalized several customer support agreements, and these have been in line with the assumptions we outlined last year. And lastly, just a comment on the remaining Pratt & Whitney fleets. Both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with what we discussed on our prior call. We continue to execute on those plans. I'll now shift to Raytheon's performance. We continue to experience profitability challenges driven by productivity headwinds within the business, primarily attributable to legacy fixed price development programs that we have previously discussed, as well as continued supply chain and operational headwinds. Let me start by providing some color around our productivity issues. And it’s important to note that we are in fact achieving productivity in several parts of Raytheon's business, in particular on certain legacy product families where we've received successive awards that are creating scale in our factories and in our supply chain. For example, we increased GEMT output by 50% year-over-year by using our core system to refine work instructions, increase test equipment uptime, and reduce product cycle time, all without additional capital or manpower. We also recognize productivity gains when we successfully retire technical and schedule risks on our contracts, which is more frequent in our programs in the production phase. However, those gains have been overcome by unfavorable productivity in other areas. In 2023, about 70% of this headwind came from challenges on fixed price development programs, and the remaining 30% was driven by unfavorable material costs, as well as supplier delinquencies, which have had the effect of extending the period of performance in several cases. So what are we doing about it? Our plan to stabilize the current performance and deliver profitable growth consists of a few elements. One, we expect improvement in our fixed price development programs as we satisfy certain technical and programmatic milestones. We will also be more selective and disciplined about the work we pursue moving forward. Two, we are making modifications in our approach to winning new work. We continue to ensure that our new contracts and additional contractual lots have better protection from supplier inflation. This will take some time to play through, but we expect this will help us improve our margin profile. Three, we continue to drive improved supply chain performance and material flow. Overall, our material receipts were up 8% in 2023. And we need to continue on that trajectory here in 2024. Four, we continue to take indirect cost actions that will help us avoid some of the headwinds we experienced in 2022 and ‘23. For instance, we optimized Raytheon's realigned business structure by further consolidating and streamlining several of our sub business units earlier this month. This will reduce indirect costs and overhead and better position the business for profitable growth. And lastly, there will be some tailwind that comes from a mixed shift in our business as development programs and technical refreshes move into production, and the mix of our sales shifts more towards FMS and DCS. So there's obviously a lot of work to do, but this business has a strong foundation and it starts with its product portfolio. As I said earlier, the demand for Raytheon's products is incredibly strong, and I'm confident that Phil and the team are focused on addressing these challenges and delivering this record backlog at the margins that we need. With that, let me turn it over to Neil to take you through our fourth quarter results.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Chris. Turning to slide three, we finished the year strong and ahead of our expectations with solid growth in organic sales across all three segments, even as the year-over-year comparisons became more difficult. And overall segment operating profit for the year was up 18% versus 2022. We also ended the year with strong free cash flow as you heard from Chris. For the fourth quarter, we had adjusted sales of $19.8 billion, up 10% organically versus the prior year. This was primarily driven by growth in commercial aerospace, as well as growth across defense in all three segments. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was a bit better than our expectations and up 2% as profit from higher commercial aftermarket at Pratt and Collins and drop through on higher defense volume was partially offset by the expected headwinds from higher interest taxes and lower pension income. Keep in mind we dealt with about $2.3 billion of inflationary headwinds in 2023 of which about a quarter of that was in the fourth quarter, which we largely overcame through pricing and cost reduction actions. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.05 per share and included $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments, a $0.06 benefit related to a customer settlement, and $0.01 net charges associated with restructuring and other non-recurring items. And finally, we delivered free cash flow with $3.9 billion in the quarter, bringing our total free cash flow for the year to $5.5 billion, which is about $700 million ahead of our prior outlook, as powder metal related impacts have shifted and year-end collections were stronger than expected. With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results and I'll come back and share our thoughts on 2024 and 2025.
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on slide four. Sales were $7 billion in the quarter, up 12% on both an adjusted and organic basis driven primarily by continued strengths in commercial OE and aftermarket growth. By channel commercial aftermarket sales were up 23%, driven by a 27% increase in provisioning, a 26% increase in parts and repair, and an increase of 7% in mods and upgrades in the quarter. Commercial OE sales for the quarter were up 17% versus the prior year, driven by continued growth in both narrow body and wide body platforms. And military sales were up 1% primarily due to higher deliveries. Adjusted operating profit of $104 billion was up $190 million or 22% from the prior year with drop through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable mix partially offset by lower commercial OE as drop through on OE volume was more than offset by higher production costs. In addition, higher R&D expenses offset by lower SG&A. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide five, sales of $6.4 billion were up 14% both on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all three channels. Commercial OE sales were up 20% in the quarter, driven by higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 18% in the quarter, driven by higher volume in both large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. And in the military business, sales were up 4%, primarily driven by higher sustainment volume, which was partially offset by lower material inputs on production programs. Adjusted operating profit of $405 million was up $84 million from the prior year, primarily driven by drop through and higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable commercial OE mix. This was partially offset by higher commercial OE volume, higher production costs and unfavorable military contract adjustment in the absence of a benefit from a prior year customer contract adjustment. And finally, higher R&D expense was offset by lower SG&A. Now turning to Raytheon on slide six. Sales of $6.9 billion in the quarter were up 3% on an adjusted basis and 4% organically, primarily driven by higher volume on advanced technology and air power programs. Adjusted operating profit for the quarter of $618 million was up $48 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volume and lower operating expenses partially offset by unfavorable net program efficiencies. Bookings and backlog continue to be very strong as we finish the year. In the fourth quarter, $9.1 billion of booking resulted in a book to bill of 1.33 and an end of the year backlog of $52 billion. And for the full-year, Raytheon's book to bill was 1.22. With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on 2024.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Jennifer. Let's turn to slide seven. Before I get into the specifics on our ‘24 financial outlook just a couple of comments on the environment as we look ahead. So let me start with the positives. As Chris said global RPMs are back to 2019 levels. However, they have not fully recovered with respect to long-haul international travel, particularly widebody, but that is expected to continue to be a tailwind for us going forward. On the narrowbody side, demand for new aircraft remains strong, which continues to support both OE and aftermarket growth. Specific to the commercial OE side, with increasing commercial production rates, we expect commercial OE revenue will be up between about 10% and 15% in 2024. Now, with respect to commercial aftermarket, we currently expect sales to be up over 10% in ‘24, and that's on top of the 23% growth we saw in ‘23. Turning to defense, global defense spending remains elevated, which will continue to support our backlog ahead as our key programs remain well funded. Across RTX, we remain laser focused on driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin expansion. In 2023, we achieved $295 million of incremental RTX merger cost synergies, keeping us on track to achieve our $2 billion in gross cost synergy goal by the end of 2025. On the challenges side, there are certain pockets where inflation remains elevated, we will see the lingering effect of the past couple of years inflation as we deliver on our backlog. In ‘24, we expect to see about $1.7 billion of material and labor inflation, which we expect to be more than offset by higher pricing and the benefits from our digital transformation projects and other aggressive cost reduction initiatives across the company. And as Chris said before, we continue to focus on executing on our GTF fleet management plans and are working relentlessly to mitigate further disruption to our customers. And of course, we're continuing to support the health of the supply chain. While we are seeing continued improvements, there are areas that remain challenged where we are dedicating resources, including suppliers, who provide structural castings and rocket motors. Two critical areas that continue to pace our recovery. And as I mentioned back in October, we continue to see headwinds due to the actions we have taken to preserve the improved funded status of our pension plans, as well as the recognition of historical asset experience. And finally, we're keeping an eye on the U.S. and global tax environment, congressional action on the fiscal year ‘24 budget, and of course the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. So with that backdrop, let me tell you how this translates to our financial outlook for the year on slide eight. At the RTX level, we expect another year of solid growth and adjusted sales, segment operating profit, and earnings per share, along with continued strength and free cash flow. Before I get into the details, let me share with you a couple of key assumptions embedded in our outlook as it relates to the two dispositions we announced last year. First, with respect to the Raytheon cybersecurity business, we have assumed that this transaction will close here in the first quarter. Therefore, on a reported basis, we will see about a $1.3 billion year-over-year reduction in reported sales, and about an $80 million year-over-year headwind to operating profit. The Collins ‘24 outlook still includes the actuation business as we continue to work on the business disposition. So with that, starting with sales at the RTX level, we expect full-year 2024 sales of between $78 billion and $79 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 7% and 8% year-over-year. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of between $5.25 and $5.40, and that's up 4% to 7% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $5.7 billion for the year. And despite only being up $200 million year-over-year, there were strong operational improvement. So let me take you through the moving pieces. First, we're expecting strong segment profit growth and working capital improvement to drive $2.3 billion of improvement year-over-year. Embedded in that is about a $100 million headwind on higher CapEx in ‘24 as we continue to invest in capacity expansion, digital transformation, and operational modernization. Payments related to powder metal impacts are expected still be a headwind of about $1.3 billion. We’ll also see a net headwind of about $500 million, primarily from higher interest expense principally from the debt we issued to fund the ASR. And finally a headwind of about $300 million from lower pension cash recovery. Now let me turn to our EPS walk, starting at the segment level, operating profit growth of about 16% is expected to result in approximately $0.72 of EPS growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. With respect to pension while markets have improved since our call in October there will still be a headwind of about $0.36 year-over-year. And as I just mentioned, given the increased debt outstanding, interest expense will be a $0.30 headwind. A lower average outstanding share count resulting from our recent ASR will provide a tailwind of about $0.37. And finally, our tax rate in ‘24 is expected to be approximately 19.5% versus the 18.5% in 2023. This combined with higher corporate investments in digital transformation will result in a $0.16 headwind year-over-year. All of this brings us to our outlook range 5.25 to 5.40 per share. Okay with that let’s go to slide nine, to get into our outlook by segment where we expect continued organic sales and earnings growth across all three businesses. Starting with Collins we expect full-year sales to be up mid to high-single-digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by both widebody and narrowbody commercial or reproduction ramps and continued commercial aftermarket. Military sales at Collins are expected to be up low to mid-single-digits for the year. With respect to Collins adjusted operating profit, we expected to grow between $650 million and $725 million versus last year. This is primarily driven by drop through on higher volume across all three channels, as well as higher pricing and the benefit from continued costs reduction initiatives. Turning to Pratt & Whitney, we expect full-year sales to be up low-double-digits on an adjusted and organic basis versus prior year driven by higher OE deliveries in Pratt’s large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in shop visits across legacy large commercial engines, GTF, and Pratt Canada. Military sales at Pratt are expected to be up mid-single-digits driven by higher F-135 sustainment volume as heavy overhauls continue to ramp. As a result, we expect Pratt's adjusted operating profit to grow between $400 million and $475 million versus last year primarily on commercial aftermarket drop through and military growth, which will be partially offset by higher large commercial OE deliveries. And at Raytheon, on our organic basis, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single-digits versus 2023, as we deliver our backlog and continue to see supply chain improvement. Adjusted operating profit at Raytheon is expected to be up between $100 million and $200 million versus prior year driven by drop through on higher volume and improvement in productivity, which will be partially offset by mix headwinds. Keep in mind we'll see about $80 million of year-over-year headwind from the divestiture of the cybersecurity business this year. And to wrap up our outlook at the RTX level, higher intercompany activity will increase sales eliminations by about 10% year-over-year. And we've included an outlook for some of the below the line items and pension in the webcast appendices. Finally, let me make a few comments on our 2025 financial commitments. As you know, there have been some significant changes in the macro environment since we first established these long-term targets, impacts ranging from Russian sanctions, elevated inflation, issues with labor availability, and of course the associated disruptions throughout the supply chain. And we continue to take incremental actions to further reduce costs, realign our business units, increasing pricing, and investing in productivity improvements to combat these headwinds. Other factors underlying our long-term assumptions however have been also positive, such as the pace of the commercial air recovery and demand for our defense products and services. All that said despite those puts and takes we continue to expect Collins and Pratt to be within the sales and operating profit 2020 to 2025 growth targets we discussed last year at our Investor Day. However, because of the recent performance at Raytheon, we are recalibrating our outlook for this segment. When taking into account divestitures, we now expect the 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate for adjusted sales to be between 3% and 3.5% that's down slightly from our previous expectation of 3.5% to 4.5% for the same period and driven largely by the initiatives we talked about upfront it will take some time to convert over the next couple of years. As you know, demand remains strong and our robust backlog will continue to support significant top-line growth going forward. Similarly, with respect to Raytheon's adjusted operating profit growth, given the continued productivity challenges we described, we now see Raytheon's 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate to be between 1% and 2.5%, which is down from our prior outlook of between 5.5% to 7.5%. As a result of this segment change, we now see the RTX level adjusted sales annual growth rate from 2020 through 2025 to be between 5.5% and 6% on an organic basis, that's down slightly from our prior outlook of between 6% and 7%. And taking into account the adjustment to Raytheon's operating profit outlook, we now see overall RTX adjusted margin expansion to be between 500 and 550 basis points between 2020 and 2025. And that's down from our prior outlook of between 550 and 650 basis points. However, importantly, there is no change to our RTX 2025 free cash flow target of $7.5 billion, as we remain confident in the significant cash generating capability of our businesses and we are continuing to drive structural cost reduction and working capital improvements as we invest in the business and deliver on our commitment to return $36 billion to $37 billion of capital to share owners with the date of the merger through ‘25. So with that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thanks, Neil. On slide 10, let me just wrap this up. I know we've covered a lot of ground today, but I know there's some key takeaways that everybody should focus on here. Obviously, 2023 was a challenging year. The earnings performance of our Raytheon business obviously was disappointing, as was the Pratt powder metal issue. But importantly, demand remains strong across both of our commercial and defense markets. 11% organic growth in 2023 is just the beginning. With the strength of our $196 billion backlog, we're confident that we'll continue to see strong organic sales and earnings growth, along with accelerated free cash flow generation over the coming years. I believe we have the best positioned A&D portfolio, industry-leading franchises, and robust demand for our products and technologies. This positions us well for the future. Secondly, we're intensely focused on execution to support our customers and to drive operational performance improvement. We're clearly going to face challenges this year with the continued ramp of the supply chain and the impact of higher costs. But everyone at RTX is working tirelessly to overcome these obstacles and ensure that we deliver on our commitments. Lastly, we're staying disciplined and managing the business to continue investing in differentiated technologies and innovation, strengthening our balance sheet all while continuing to return significant capital to our share owners. I want to close again by thanking all the RTX employees, who have been working diligently every single day over the last year to deliver on our mission to create a safer, more connected world. With that, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research. Please go ahead, Robert.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Chris, inevitably a first question on the GTF situation. It does sound like some things have moved since your update in October. And I think you mentioned that the scheduling of the AOG looks like it's going to be slightly different profile and also there could be a related cash impact of that? So I don't know if you could give us some more color on that to development?
Chris Calio:
Yes, you bet Rob and good morning. So we did say here this morning that we do expect the peak to continue to be here in Q1 in terms of AOGs and then tread downward thereafter. Again, we think that peak is going to come down a bit since our initial assessment, because really two reasons. One, timing of the AED has shifted a bit to the right. And then two, customers took some proactive fleet planning and decided to, in some cases, accelerate some of their removals. They were doing their fleet planning for the year. They were pairing engines and doing all those things to make them more efficient. So again, peak here in Q1, trend downward after that and then it'll be more of a steady state as we talked about in our October and September guides on the matter. You mentioned a little bit on cash being pushed out. Again, that was the dynamic time as we're going through and having discussions with our customers on special support. We've made some progress on special support. I think we've talked about that upfront. We've signed several agreements with our customers, some important customers with large fleets. But the timing of that cash just simply moved out from the second-half of ‘23 into ‘24. Same total aggregate amount from 6 to 7, but the timing moved a little bit to the right for the reasons I talked about.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks, Chris.
Chris Calio:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr of Cowen. Your question, please, Cai.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thanks so much. So your cash flow hit from the powdered metal issue is $300 million higher in ‘20 than you said. Can you tell us how big was the impact in ‘23 and are we still going to be at $3 billion and therefore there's a plus of $300 million pickup in ‘25? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Hey, Cai. Good morning, it's Neil. Yes, and I'll take that one. So, you know, as Chris was just talking about when we closed out ‘23, for a variety of reasons, the cash flows shifted to the right. So the impact in ‘23 for powdered metal related dispersion was essentially zero. So we moved about half of that into 2024, that's the $1.3 billion that you're seeing. Still holding a $1.5 billion in our ‘25 outlook. And then we see the rest spilling into early 2026. So we'll continue to work, obviously, the agreements with our customers, and that will drive the ultimate timing of the payments, but you can see our assumptions that we've laid out there.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thank you very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your question, please, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, everyone. I can't help, but compare and contrast given GE just reported this morning and they're talking about margins being flattish in aerospace based on OE mix and LEAP services mix? So, you know, just looking at Pratt, can you talk about the dynamics there given GTF volumes are growing, early GTF shops as it's climbed higher? So what drives margins 100 basis points higher? What's embedded into the guide? Neil, you gave great color on the revenue assumption. Can you give some assumptions on maybe the aftermarket specifics on the margins as well as the military overalls increasing? Is that beneficial?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, thanks Sheila. Let me share a couple of other details that we didn't get into in the prepared remarks. So we did talk about the overall sales of Pratt being up in the low-double-digit range, you know, $400 million to $475 million of operating profit. The aftermarket sales are going to be up sort of low-teens. So the drop through on the aftermarket is going to be the principal driver of the year-over-year profit increase. We talked a lot about expanding the margins on our, you know, both our legacy and GTF aftermarket as we increase the volumes there. And so some of that will start to show up in ‘24 and that's a driver of drop through. On the OE side, we think the sales are going to be up in the mid-teens range. The good news there, as we look at engine productions, which think about that as up about 20%, we'll see about a headwind of maybe $125 million associated with that higher volume. So we're getting much better absorption as the volumes return back to levels that we had seen pre-pandemic and that we've been capacitized to. So I think that's another place that we're going to get some margin expansion. And then again, I'm not sure we got into this, but military will be up in the mid-single-digit range. I'd say again, we had 5% growth on the top line there. And of course, that comes with good drop through too, you know, as we get into 2024. So that's the Pratt story as we look into 2024, just a little more color there.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research. Your question, please, Myles?
Myles Walton:
Thanks, good morning. I was wondering, maybe Neil, if you can comment on the offset to the lower implied earnings drop through from the ‘25 guidance? What was the offset to allow you to maintain the cash flow there? And maybe Chris, what by the end of, say, ‘24 would you have achieved in terms of incorporation of fully life parts into the fleet? Just as a metric, maybe we can sort of monitor by it? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Myles. Good morning. Let me start, let me maybe start to frame the answer to that question with a little bit of an updated walk between ‘23 and ‘25 on free cash flow to get to the $7.5 billion. And then I'll talk about, you know, what obviously offset the reduction in the profit as part of that. So, as we look from ‘23 of $5.5 billion, that $2 billion increase is going to come principally from, you know, what I would call operational growth, about $4.8 billion, $2.9 billion of which is going to come from the pre-tax segment operating profit, and you pointed out that, that will be lower than our prior guide, and that's around the midpoint. The remaining growth is going to come from working capital improvement, about $2.2 billion, about half of which we will deal with here in ‘24 as we look to hold our inventory flat. So our ‘23 headwind operationally was about $600 million, so we're looking year-over-year to improve that. And then we'll have about a half of the, I'm sorry, $400 million of CapEx between ‘23 and ‘25, so that'll be a headwind. And then I just talked about the $1.5 billion powdered metal impact and about $1 billion headwind that split pretty evenly between -- sorry pretty evenly between interest and improvement in taxes and then finally a few $100 million of pension headwind. All of that should get you to $7.5 billion. So what's changed as we look out to 2025, there's been really three things that are different. The first is we've got about $1 billion net of tax lower operating profit baked into this long-term guide. But that's been offset by about $700 million of improvement in taxes, most notably on the back of improvements in our R&D position, as well as a $200 million based on the assumptions we see today with respect to our pension outlays. And then a little bit of additional working capital. So those are the key drivers.
Chris Calio:
And I'll talk to you now about the full life incorporations. As we said upfront, I think we had made this commitment early on in September, October timeframe, full life powder metal parts in OE, so at our customers final assembly lines, starting this year. So that's a good thing. Keep in mind the OE engines have the latest build standard and so when you add in the full life parts to those you get the maximum time on wing for the customers and also keep in mind that means that the full life parts will go into our spare engines, which are going out to lift the fleet again, maximizing the time on the wing. On the MRO side, what we said was we were going to start the incorporation in Q2 of this year. We actually started that a little bit earlier. We've found opportunities to put full life parts into MRO where we think it makes the most sense from a time on link perspective. As we said early on in the year, we're not going to get all of our shop visits with full life parts. We're going to ramp throughout the year where we don't incorporate the full life parts into MRO. We're going to continue to obviously inspect those parts with the angle scan inspection that we developed and they will be put back into service until the next inspection interval. And keep in mind, one of the things that we've been doing is just looking at the build standard and the interval for each of these engines that are coming in. There are opportunities to sort of match up just based on the condition of the engine and where it is and where it flies in terms of the environment. A part that's been inspected that's not at full life, match it up with an engine that's going to be coming in for another reason around that same time, so you're not actually driving you know an incremental visit. So again that's sort of the algorithm that we're kind of going through each and every day with the Pratt team to sort of maximize our allocation in the full life parts. But the MRO will be a ramp throughout the year. I think ultimately we'll get to roughly the same place that we had assumed we would had we started in Q2, but it'll be a ramp throughout the year. And all of that's been factored into our outlook.
Myles Walton:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Please go ahead, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Hey, Chris, on Raytheon, you talked about some of the headwinds. Could you maybe give us a little more color on just where we are in terms of the profile of the fixed price development programs and whether we're peaking now? And then kind of related to all this just is when should we start to see more of that mixed shifts from more of the FMS that you kind of talked about where we could see some better pricing flow in terms? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Yes, okay. Thanks Peter. So again as we talked about the productivity issues at Raytheon, about 70%, as we said upfront, were in the fixed price development programs. And I'll characterize some of these, Peter, as in some cases these are contracts that we took on that maybe weren't in our core capability suite, and we signed up for requirements and other specifications that were really, really difficult. And so it's taken us some time to continue to work through those. In some cases, what we're doing, Peter, is we're taking subject matter experts from across the company and just adding resources to these programs. It adds a little bit of expense, obviously, but I think in the long-term, it gets the capabilities of the customer faster and ultimately is better financially for us and for the customer. And then in some cases on these fixed price development programs, we're having discussions with customers about either restructuring specifications or altering the requirements in a way that still get capability that's needed and that's helpful. But you can get to them, frankly, in a shorter period of time and with a better financial profile. Those conversations continue to go. I'll tell you that we will, got a handful here that we're still going to be powering through in 2024 and see that horizon getting better in the next 12 to 18 months as we go through certain milestones, Peter and satisfy some contractual requirements. We then get into a different phase of the agreement and feel better about our ability to go and execute.
Neil Mitchill:
Chris, maybe I would add Just a couple of the financial points around our assumptions, financially going into 2024. As you think about the $100 million to $200 million profit increase, the first thing I would say is in ‘23, we had about a $240 million headwind associated with these negative productivity. As you said two-thirds, 70% associated with these fixed-price development programs, principally a couple of them. As we look to ‘24, our assumption is that our absolute value of productivity is zero. So we'll see about a $200 million improvement year-over-year. We'll see about $100 million at the midpoint from volume and a little bit of headwind as the lower margins roll through the backlog in ‘24. And that's what we've contemplated both in the ‘24 and the ‘25 outlook. All of that gets you down to our guide, of course, is that $80 million ahead I talked about. And as you kind of look into ‘25, our productivity assumption is about $100 million step up. So again, this business at one-time generated $300 million, $400 million, $500 million a year of productivity. But we need some time for that to play through to see those kinds of margins. But 2025 would not mark the peak of where we see Raytheon's margin potential.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate it. Thanks, Chris, yes.
Chris Calio:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Chris Calio:
Hey, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Neil, just want to make sure I have the -- I guess, the starting point and the implied margin correct in this new $500 million to $550 million, ‘20 to ‘25, so given restatements and the like. So I'm looking at 2020 segment operating margin all in of $8.2 implying that the ‘25 is $13.2 to $13.7, so is that correct? And then can you just talk a little more about getting there from this ‘24 guidance it would seem to either require a pretty nice step up in the Raytheon defense margin or acceleration in the incrementals at Pratt and Collins or all of the above?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Noah. So as you kind of look at the multi-year outlook here, what we've done at the top end is we've tightened up the range a little bit for the RTX sales and margin. We still see Collins and Pratt being within the ranges we talked about. Frankly, the drivers are all the same that we talked about six months ago and the last quarter as well. The aftermarket is going to fuel that. We're going to get better absorption and we'll see the benefits of lower spending on investments we've been making to drive cost reduction and the benefit of that cost reduction. So if you put all that, that's going to put Pratt and Collins in that range, probably closer towards the middle of the high-end of that range. And then we just talked about the Raytheon pieces altogether. So I think at the midpoint, when you take into account the dispositions that we've either completed or have announced, you'll see that our margin assumption at the RTX level is about the same as where we were projecting before these tweaks for the Raytheon recalibration.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, and just to make sure I have your -- you said to Myles correct, in the $5.7 million of free cash this year and the $7.5 million next year, each of those assumes about $1 billion of positive change in working capital each year, is that right?
Neil Mitchill:
That's correct. And as you think about from ‘23 to ‘24, inventory is going to essentially, our plan is to stay flat, that will be about 80% of what generates that year-over-year working capital benefit in ‘24. And then as you look to ‘25, you know, we'll see continued improvement in inventory, as well as the benefit of customer advances. So we've realized a lot of customer advances over the last couple of years. They will burn down. And then as we see these international orders come back in, you'll see that pick up in the year ‘25.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, thanks very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein & Company. Please go ahead, Doug.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you. It sounded, from what you said, Chris, that you made some good progress on the AOG profile here for the GTF. But when you look at your customer base, you may have some who find that a high number of AOGs could put their financial performance at risk. Whether or not those issues are caused by Pratt, you could easily be targeted for responsibility. You already have the earlier go-first lawsuit. So how do you think about the risk for you with airlines that could be in a stressed financial position? And maybe more difficult perhaps than how you might normally compensate a customer?
Chris Calio:
Yes, thanks Doug. I mean, first of all, I'll tell you that we are engaging with our customers each and every day to try to figure out how best to support them, whether that's through induction, whether that's through special support, whether that's the spare engine allocation, whatever it may be. And you're right, Doug, there are some customers out there, 10 to 12, I think, as we've talked about before, they're going to be more impacted than others. There's some that are all Pratt fleets, whether it be GTF and V2500. So again, working very hard with them to come up with a compensation structure relative to the powdered metal AOG situation. That's fair, and that can give them a little bit of lift. Obviously, it won't make up for all of the disruption that they're having in their fleet and all of the things that they've got to do to accommodate for these removals. But again, doing the best we can to come up with a fair set of compensation structures to help out during these trying times. And then, of course, communicate with them consistently about what we're seeing in terms of the assumptions that we're talking about here. Full life incorporation, MRO, MRO output, all the things that are going to drive better fleet support for them. So obviously don't want to be in a position where we're putting our customers in harm's way and where they're going to be very upset with us and want to take action. But I'll tell you, we've got a track record of coming to agreement with our customers on some of the more difficult problems we've faced. I'm confident we're going to be able to do it again.
Doug Harned:
And if I can, are you seeing any improvement in the time, the induction time to get these engines in the shop as part of this AOG profile?
Chris Calio:
Right now, Doug, the wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with what we had talked about previously. I will tell you, and we kind of alluded to this earlier, we are continuing to aggressively pursue with our aftermarket partners. Again, we've got some Tier 1 aftermarket providers as part of the GTF aftermarket network trying to come up with, you know, what I would call light or medium type work scopes that can take the, you know, in shop time, down further. Again, trying to maximize the time on wing, just depends on the operator, depends on the condition of the engine, but we're aggressively pursuing a number of work scopes that can take the in-shop time down. In addition, I think you've heard us talk about this before, we've industrialized a significant number of repairs on the GTF, I want to say about 1,300 in 2023. We've got another significant step up here in 2024 [Technical Difficulty]
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays. Your question, please, David.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning.
Chris Calio:
Good morning.
David Strauss:
Wanted to ask, what exactly is the bottleneck, Chris, to be able to ramp up production of full-life discs, given that I think the powdered metal switch occurred a while ago I guess I'm just kind of confused there why it's not easier to ramp up the production of these full-life discs? And then could you touch on what you're expecting for large commercial engine deliveries in ‘24 and your confidence in being able to meet Airbus's requirements? Thanks.
Chris Calio:
Sure. So, you know, as we talked about, David, the powdered metal value stream, we're asking it, both our own shops and our supply chain, to step up significantly here so that we can incorporate into MRO, as we talked about earlier, and in OE. So much more than that value stream clearly had anticipated mid-year last year. Again, we feel like we've got pretty adequate forging capacity within our own four walls and with the supply chain. But again, we've got to continue to ramp up inspection capacity. We've got to ramp up machining capacity, all critical parts of that value stream. And I'll tell you, as you ramp up, and we saw this in 2019 as we were ramping and we're ramping up again here, as you take these parts to a volume that our supply chain wasn't necessarily anticipating and that we weren't necessarily anticipating, you've got to continue to double down on the fundamentals, the quality, the yield, the tooling, and the maintenance, all the things that are instrumental in enabling that volume jump. So, again, I would say we've made solid progress thus far in our, you know, generally tracking to where we thought we would be. But again, we've got to continue to step up throughout the year, especially as we want to increase the number of full life parts we put into MRO. To your question about Airbus, I think Neil said it before, up about 20% year-over-year here in ‘24. And again, we have discussions with Airbus all the time. They understand the fleet condition. They understand where we're ramping on powdered metal parts and the like. And so, we feel good about our ability to meet the commitment we made to them here in 2024.
David Strauss:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America. Please go ahead, Ronald.
Ronald Epstein:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Chris Calio:
Good morning, Ron.
Ronald Epstein:
Just change the subject a little bit. Everybody seems to be talking about the powdered metal thing. And Collins, Collins outlook looks really good. Can you give some color around how much of that is being driven by widebody and interiors and if you're starting to really see a pickup there. Because the one thing that we're all kind of waiting for is the pickup in the widebody market. And that interior's business is generally a good leading indicator of what's going on.
Greg Hayes:
Let me start, Ron, and maybe Chris can add something. Let me give you a couple details first. On the aftermarket side at Collins, we expect that to be up high-single-digits to low-double-digits, I'd say 10% or more. On the OE side, mid to high-single-digits. And we're going to see, as everyone knows, about 40% incrementals there. And yes, wide body is going to be a big driver. So as we've seen a lot of narrow body, I'll call it catch up in growth over the last couple of years, we do expect that to shift to the widebody. Now keep in mind on the widebody OE side for Collins, the margins are a bit thinner there, but it does set us up for good longer term projections, especially as you get into ‘25 and ‘26 and beyond, as that comes off warranty and converts to aftermarket. Around the interior business, I think Steve Tim had said this back in June, that business is growing, but it's nowhere near levels of 2019. And so we don't see that coming back until about 2026. So the good news is, you know, there's a lot of runway there. And we are seeing a lot of activity there. So I think that will be a growth driver. But clearly, we're starting to see a bit more of a shift from narrow body into wide body as we go into the next couple of years.
Chris Calio:
Yes, maybe the only thing I would add to that, Ron, is that Steve and team are very focused on the transformation within interiors. I think there's some opportunity to consolidate sites, to continue to remove ERP systems. As you know, there's been an integration that's been going on in that interiors business in particular. So I think a lot of good work on continuing to transform the cost footprint in the interiors business. So when that volume continues to come back, it'll be at the types of margins that you would expect.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it. Got it. And have you guys seen any airlines, any customers yet requesting retrofits and upgrades to interiors on their existing widebody fleets?
Greg Hayes:
You know, Ron, that's actually an ongoing process. We're in the process of working with a number of airlines as they are going through their retrofit. And keep in mind, that is a three- to five-year process to upgrade these things. So we are still finishing out things that we had signed up for back in 2018, 2019. But again, as Neil said, the business is coming back. But given the long cycle nature of these upgrades, you're not going to see a heck of a lot of that in ‘24, more than ‘25 and certainly more than ‘26.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it, cool. All right, thank you very much.
Chris Calio:
Welcome. Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JP Morgan. Your question please, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
Yes, thanks. So, good morning. Maybe just following up on Collins and kind of the growth outlook for this year when we think about how much OE production rates are rising. We think about the strengths in the aftermarket. What's the potential for upside on the top line there? And I guess how much is a drag on the military business? It's a pretty significant chunk of the portfolio and given the growth rate in the second-half and what you're forecasting overall for ‘24, it seems like maybe this isn't a business that's really a military business that's going to participate in the budget growth and outlay growth that we're seeing now?
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Seth. Let me start, I wouldn't characterize the defense business within Collins as a drag. I think the defense business in ‘23 was flat at the top line and it experienced a lot of the same issues we've been talking about on the Raytheon side in terms of the impacts of inflation, the delays in the supply chain. But as we look to ‘24, we're going to see, I'd say, healthy growth there, low to mid-single-digits as we catch up and the supply chain catches up and we burn down the overdue there. And I think we're really well positioned on a lot of strategic platforms. Remember, we moved businesses from the Raytheon segment into the Collins Mission Systems business to create more synergistic opportunity there. And I think that's really taking hold and there's a lot of good proposal activity there. So I think it's a great fit. It's in the right place in Collins. More broadly, I think just talking about the aftermarket potential at Collins, very strong, but we just put up some significant numbers there with aftermarket of 26% and provisioning up 42% on a full-year. So clearly there's been a surge in aftermarket over the last year, and so we're dealing with some very difficult compares. And on the OE side, we'll start to see that growth moderate, but again, still on the back of some really strong 17% growth in ‘23. So I think Collins is well positioned and I think the defense business is a good fit and it's in the right place there for it right now.
Chris Calio:
Again, I'll just add, much like the interiors, I think Steve and team have a plan to continue to drive structural cost reduction within Collins to help, you know, margin expansion. We've talked about, you know, moving engineering presence to best cost locations by 2025 by significant number, same with manufacturing hours. So a lot of Center of Excellence activity going on in Collins that will continue to help with their cost footprint and support the margin expansion.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks very much.
Chris Calio:
Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for calling in and listening today. As always, Jennifer and her investor relations team will be available all day to answer whatever further questions you might have. So with that, thank you and have a wonderful day. Take care.
Operator:
This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners, that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone opportunity to participate. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Gregory J. Hayes:
All right. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we start, I want to spend just a minute acknowledging the tragic situation playing out in Israel today. It has been devastating to see what has unfolded there over the last couple of weeks and our thoughts and prayers are with the people impacted including the thousands of RTX employees that call Israel home. With that said, let me turn to an update on our end markets. On the commercial aero side, air travel demand remains strong. We're seeing solid air traffic growth with global revenue passenger miles essentially back to 2019 levels and domestic air travel well above 2019 levels. We also expect strong demand for holiday and business travel for the remainder of the year, supporting continued aftermarket strength for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft. On the defense side, the elevated threat environment is continuing to drive increased defense spending globally. Just one example in the quarter, the United States approved moving forward with the sale of F-35 aircraft to South Korea. That's estimated to be worth about $5 billion and will support further growth with this customer for F-35 content for years to come. Additionally, the U.S. State Department approved a significant sale to Spain for the Patriot air and missile defense systems earlier this month. And that's expected to include approximately $1 billion of Raytheon content. And as Russia's invasion of Ukraine unfortunately continues, we are seeing significant demand from the U.S. and our allies for advanced air defense systems and munitions. During this past quarter, this included additional orders for NASAMS, Excalibur, which are precision guided artillery shells, Stinger anti-aircraft munitions, and TOW anti-tank guided missiles. Domestically, despite what we've seen over the last few weeks in DC, we remain confident that there is bipartisan support for increased defense spending and RTX continues to be well-positioned across all three of our businesses. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney. Let me give you an update on the powdered metal manufacturing quality matter. Our efforts to-date have been heavily focused on ensuring the safety of our engines. As you saw in the press release this morning, we have finalized the charge recorded here in the quarter, which is in-line with what we had previously disclosed. So, just a few thoughts on the powdered metal issue. Through the early stages of removals and inspections of the PW1100 engine, which powers the A320 Neo aircraft, our outlook both financially and operationally remains consistent with our expectations. We've also made significant progress on the safety assessments for the other Pratt & Whitney powered fleets. That includes the PW1500, which powers the A220, the PW1900 which powers the Embraer E2, and the V2500, which powers the legacy A320. With the analyses substantially complete, we do not expect any significant incremental financial impact as a result of those fleet management plans. The focus of both Pratt & Whitney and the entire RTX organization is on maintaining the trust of our customers, and our partners, and we are relentlessly working to improve upon the plans we have in place today. As I said to many of you over the last few months, we remain confident in the future of RTX because the demand for our products is robust, our end markets remain resilient across both commercial aerospace and defense, and our team is laser focused on driving performance excellence to meet our customer needs. Our backlog is now a record $190 billion with a pipeline of both existing franchises and new technology developments. As we always have, we continue to actively manage our portfolio. As you saw this morning, we reached an agreement to sell Raytheon’s cyber services business and a cash sale for approximately $1.3 billion, which combined with the recently announced sale of Collins actuation business, this will generate approximately $3 billion of gross proceeds in 2024. So with that, let's turn to slide two. As we also announced this morning, our Board has approved a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program or ASR, which we will be initiating tomorrow. Simply put, we see a significant discount between the intrinsic value of RTX and our current stock price. The long-term outlook of the GTF remained strong, and Pratt’s franchises extend well beyond the GTF. The V2500 has about 6,000 engines still flying and is in the sweet spot of its aftermarket cycle. Pratt Canada continues to be the world's premier small engine manufacturer with an installed base of more than 60,000 engines. And the military business of Pratt is the sole provider of engines the fifth generation fighters. Collins, has a great portfolio, with 70% of their product line serving is number one or two in their segments, and strong margin expansion opportunities. And lastly, our newly combined Raytheon segment has an incredible number of well-established franchises along with a growing portfolio of next generation technologies. This includes LTAMDS, which is the next generation Patriot Defense System, and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile or HACM. Given the fundamental strength of the company and growth opportunities ahead, our Board recently approved an $11 billion authority to repurchase RTX shares. This includes $10 billion through an ASR program to help capture some of that value more immediately. The new authorization replaces the company’s previous program, which was approved in December of 2022. This ASR of course is on top of the $2.6 billion we've already repurchased year-to-date. Altogether, this will increase our capital return commitment to share owners to $36 billion to $37 billion through 2025 from the time of the merger. That's up from our previous range of $33 billion to $35 billion. As I said, this ASR program will commence almost immediately and will be funded through a combination of short and long-term debt. And importantly, we'll begin the process of deleveraging in 2024 in parts supported by the proceeds from the recently announced dispositions that I just mentioned. So despite near-term headwinds, the future of RTX remains bright and we remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver long-term shareowner value. With that, let me hand it over to Chris, to provide additional color on the Pratt matters and to cover the Q3 highlights.
Christopher Calio:
Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm on slide three. As Greg said, the powdered metal situation is our top priority. The bottom line is that our outlook for managing both the fleet impact and the financial impact remains intact since our last call, and our team continues to execute on our fleet management and recovery plans. Let me provide a few more details, and I'll start with the GTF. With respect to the PW1100, there is no change to the plan we outlined in our September call, the fleet management plan and financial estimates remain consistent with what we said six weeks ago, and our focus is on executing all elements of the fleet management plan, in particular, industrial output and material flow, MRO output and customer support. The first launch of the engine removals has occurred, and several of these engines were eligible for project visit work scope, and the turnaround time for these visits averaged roughly 35 days. While project visits will be a smaller portion of the overall shop visits, the turnaround time is encouraging, and our teams are continuing to identify further process improvements. And from a process perspective, additional bulletins will be released in the next few weeks that outline the life limits and repetitive inspection requirements that we detailed on our prior call. And just by way of background, it is common practice for a fleet management plan to be communicated through multiple service bulletins and airworthiness directives, to address different engine models, compliance times, or components and sections of the engine. Now let me share some details on our other GTF programs. For the PW1500 and the PW1900, we will institute a fleet management plan that will largely fit inside the shop visit plans that are already in place for these fleets. We believe the financial impact will be significant and has contemplated in our current contract estimates and the financial outlook for Pratt. As part of this plan, we will place a shorter life limit on certain early configuration parts, and an inspection requirement at about 5,000 cycles for current configuration parts. There will be some incremental AOGs in the first half of 2024, we believe these will be largely mitigated by the end of the year. Regulators and airframers are aligned with this recommendation , we expect the service bulletin implementing these actions will be released beginning in November, followed by airworthiness directives. Let me now turn to the V2500. And as a reminder, we've had a fleet management and inspection plan in place since 2021. We're going to augment this plan by accelerating certain inspections, but expect this too will have very little impact operationally or financially. It will result in a total of roughly 100 or less incremental removals stretched out over the next four years. The majority of these visits having a project visit work scope. Again, very manageable given the size of the V2500 fleet, the number of spare engines available, and engines in the market with available Green Time. All of this is contemplated in our current contract estimates and Pratt's financial outlook. This action will be communicated through a service bulletin to be released in the November timeframe. And lastly, turning to the F135, the joint program office is reviewing our fleet management plan recommendation which we believe will have limited, if any, operational impact on the customer. We continue to evaluate the balance of the Pratt fleet containing powdered metal, and expect any fleet management plan updates, if needed, to have limited impact. With our fleet management plans largely set, let me turn to the operational initiatives we are focused on to support our customers, increasing capacity and reducing turn times in our MRO shops, and ramping up the production of new full life powdered metal parts. First, with respect to MRO, we're accelerating previously planned investments in the GTF network to increase capacity and bring more shops online to support our customers. Just last month, Pratt announced they're adding capacity at their Singapore engine center which will be Pratt's third facility expansion this year. And earlier this month, MRO shops operated by China Airlines and Korea Air inducted their first GTF engines. And by the end of the year, Iberia maintenance will also be joining the GTF aftermarket network. Once complete, this network will have 16 sites globally, having brought online six partner shops this year with plans for an additional three shops to come online by 2025, bringing the total to 19. This will enable the network to be able to conduct more than 2,000 annual shop visits in 2025 to support the global GTF fleet, a roughly fivefold increase from 2019. We're also leveraging our extensive knowledge and talent across RTX to drive process enhancements to help us improve turn times in our MRO shops compared to our baseline plan. This includes a cross functional team focused on part availability, repair development and industrialization and process improvements on the shop floor. Second, and as we said in September, our objective is to replace as many HPT and HPC discs as possible with full life discs when engines come in for a shop visit in order to maximize their time on wing when they leave the shop. As we've said before, we previously made the necessary powdered metal production in forging capacity investments and now are increasing our machining and inspection capacity. Our baseline plan today forecast Q2 2024 to get to run rate capacity for disc production, we are working to accelerate this timeline, which will allow us to replace an even larger portion of the fleet with full life parts. So to wrap up on powered metal, our fleet management plans on the most impacted fleets are largely complete. The financial impact has been reassessed and remains consistent with what we said our September 11th, call on this subject, and we are fully focused on executing these plans. I'll shift now to the third quarter highlights, which Neil will provide some additional color on in a few minutes. On an adjusted basis, organic sales grew 12%, our third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth and segment operating profit grew 15%. Adjusted EPS was in-line with our expectations at $1.25, with strong free cash flow of $2.8 billion in the quarter. Sales growth was again led by the continued commercial air traffic recovery with strong commercial OE growth of 26% and 25% commercial aftermarket growth, while defense sales were up 2% year-over-year. In the quarter, we captured $22 billion in new bookings and had a book-to-bill of 1.19 across RTX, bringing our backlog to a record $190 billion. Finally, Q3 was the first quarter we officially began operating in our realigned three business unit structure. We are continuing to develop initiatives to leverage our scale and breadth to better enable customer alignment and best-in-class cost structure. With respect to our 2023 outlook, with one quarter to go, we are raising both our reported and adjusted sales outlook for the year. On a reported basis, we expect sales to be approximately $68.5 billion, and on an adjusted basis, we expect sales to be approximately $74 billion, up about 10% organically versus the prior year. We're also tightening our EPS range and have incorporated a few cents of tax headwind from some recent IRS guidance around R&D capitalization, which Neil will discuss further. As a result, we now see adjusted EPS between $4.98 and $5.02 for the year. Additionally, we expect free cash flow for the year to improve by approximately $500 million, driven primarily by the IRS guidance I just mentioned, just favorable from a cash perspective, and we are therefore increasing our free cash flow outlook to approximately $4.8 billion. So with that, let me turn it over to Neil, to take you through the additional details on the quarter.
Neil G. Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. I'm on slide four. As you saw, we finalized our estimate for the PW1100 powered metal matter here in the third quarter, and have recorded a $5.4 billion sales charge our share of which resulted in a $2.9 billion operating profit impact. This is in-line with what we communicated in September, and resulted in reported sales of $13.5 billion in the third quarter. As Chris said, we had adjusted sales of $19 billion for the quarter up 12% organically versus the prior year. Growth was primarily driven by strong demand across our commercial OE and aftermarket businesses as OEMs continue to ramp production and airlines supported the busy summer travel season. We also saw positive growth in defense, as we continue to execute on our growing backlog. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was a loss of $0.68 and included a $1.53 charge from the Pratt matter, as well as $0.40 from acquisition accounting adjustments, restructuring and other non-recurring and non-operational items. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.25 was up 3% year-over-year with higher segment operating profit partially offset by lower pension income, a higher effective tax rate and higher interest expense. As Chris alluded to you, the IRS recently provided guidance on R&D capitalization with respect to customer funded R&D for certain cost plus contracts. This means a portion of our previously capitalized R&D costs for tax purposes will now be currently deductible. While this will result in a slightly higher effective tax rate going forward and will reduce our cash tax payments. In the quarter, this resulted in about a $0.02 headwind to adjusted earnings per share for the full year, we expect this to be about $0.03 of headwind. Finally, as we had anticipated, we had strong free cash flow generation in the quarter of $2.8 billion which included a benefit of approximately $500 million from the IRS's R&D capitalization guidance, I just discussed. Now with that, let's turn to slide five, to get into the Q3 segment result. So before I begin, just a reminder, we are now reporting as three business units Collins, Pratt and Raytheon. Starting with Collins, adjusted sales were $6.7 billion in the quarter, up 17% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket growth. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 30%, driven by a 35% increase in both provisioning, as well as parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 6%. Commercial OE sales were up 27% versus the prior year, driven by growth in both narrow-body and wide-body platforms. And military sales were down 1% primarily due to the timing of deliveries. Adjusted operating profit of $1.04 billion was up $287 million or 38% in the prior year with drop through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE volume, partially offset by higher production costs, unfavorable military mix, and higher SG&A expenses. For the full year, given the continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket, we now expect Collins sales range to be up low to mid-teens an increase from the previous range of up low double digits to low teens. With respect to operating profit, we are maintaining adjusted operating profit in our prior range of up $825 million to $875 million versus the prior year. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 6. As it relates to the powder metal matter for the PW1100, in September, we communicated that we expected the gross financial impact to be in the range of $6 billion to $7 billion with an expected Q3 pretax operating profit impact of approximately $3 billion. As I just mentioned in the third quarter, we recorded a $5.4 billion sales charge resulting in a $2.9 billion pretax operating profit impact, representing our net program share in line with where we expected. Recall, I mentioned that certain elements of the gross $6 billion to $7 billion cost will be booked upfront and the remainder will be booked over the remaining life of the contract. So looking at Pratt's quarterly results on an adjusted basis, sales of $6.3 billion were up 18% and 17% on an organic basis with sales growth across all three channels. Commercial OE sales were up 25% in the quarter, driven by higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in the large commercial engine business. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 21% in the quarter, driven by both higher volume and content as well as favorable mix in both the large commercial engine and Pratt & Whitney Canada businesses. And in the military business, sales were up 7% driven by higher F135 development and sustainment volume. Adjusted operating profit of $413 million was up $95 million from the prior year with drop through on higher commercial aftermarket sales partially offset by higher commercial OE volume, higher production costs, unfavorable military mix as well as higher R&D expenses. Looking ahead, due to higher commercial OE and military volume, we now expect Pratt's adjusted sales to be towards the higher end of our prior range, or up mid-teens versus prior year. Given the higher military sales, as well as better mix across OE and aftermarket, we're also increasing Pratt's adjusted operating profit from our prior range of up $200 million to $275 million to a new range of up $350 million to $400 million versus the prior year. Turning now to Raytheon on Slide 7. Sales of $6.5 billion in the quarter were up 3% on an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by higher volume in Naval Power programs, including AIM9X and Advanced Technology Classified programs. Adjusted operating profit of $570 million was down $124 million versus the prior year driven primarily by higher volume on lower margin programs and lower net program efficiencies including additional headwind on certain fixed price development programs. In addition, as expected, there was an unfavorable impact of about $20 million from a significant contract option exercised in the quarter. Raytheon had $7.4 billion of bookings in the quarter, including $1.9 billion in classified awards, a $412 million award for the next generation short range interceptor program, and a $383 million award for Hawk and Patriot sustainment. This resulted in a book to bill of 1.16 and backlog of $50 billion. Year-to-date, Raytheon has a book to bill of 1.17. For the full year, we continue to expect sales to be up low to mid-single digits with respect to operating profit while the supply chain continues to improve as evidenced by the increase in material receipts we have seen in the last three quarters, Raytheon continues to have productivity and mix challenges. These stem from a combination of the fixed price development programs we have previously discussed, as well as higher production costs. As a result, we're reducing Raytheon's adjusted operating profit from the prior range of up $125 million to $175 million to a new range of up $25 million to up $75 million versus the prior year. Before I hand it back to Greg, just a couple of comments on the environment for 2024. Overall, we anticipate another year of solid growth in organic sales, segment operating profit, margin and free cash flow. However, the level of free cash flow growth will be tempered by the step up in cash impacts associated with the powder metal matter, as well as some headwind from cash taxes related to R&D. While commercial air travel demand has been incredibly strong from passengers and airlines, we see growth beginning to normalize as we head into 2024, with RPKs back at 2019 levels and the year over year compares becoming more difficult. However, overall, we expect continued growth in OE and aftermarket including the on-going recovery of the wide body. On the defense side, we continue to expect strong international and domestic demand which is already driven at 2023 year to date book to bill of 1.22 and a record defense backlog that will continue to convert to solid growth over the next several years. While inflation has begun to moderate, there are still pockets that remain persistently high within our manufacturing base, we expect this to continue into the next year. We'll continue working all the mitigation actions we've had in place the past two years and will implement additional strategic initiatives to offset the pressure we expect to see in 2024. Finally, as you know, we have seen a lot of volatility in the financial markets and interest rates. We expect this to drive further pension headwind next year that could be about $0.45 on a year over year basis given current market conditions and the actions we are taking to preserve improved funded status of the pension plan. So obviously, a lot of moving pieces here, but we are focused on driving execution an aggressive cost reduction and remain optimistic as we look ahead towards 2024 and 2025. With that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. Let's just take a step back if we can for a minute. I know there's a lot of information we've given you today, but really I think there are three key takeaways from our discussion. First of all, I believe we have our arms around the operational and financial impacts of the powdered metal issue. Our focus at Pratt & Whitney and across RTX is now executing on those plans that Chris laid out. Secondly, strong demand continues in our end markets. That's evidenced by the 12% organic revenue growth we saw this quarter and the $190 billion backlog we ended the quarter with. Finally, we see tremendous value in RTX today and we're going to utilize our strong balance sheet to take advantage of this through a $10 billion ASR. With that, let me stop and open it up for questions.
Operator:
In the interest of time and to allow for broader participation, you are asked to limit yourself to one question. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.
Peter Arment:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning.
Peter Arment:
Hey, Greg. The last time you guys, on the update call September, you talked about kind of the headwinds that you would see in Pratt & Whitney margins as you look out kind of to the mid-decade. Has there been any change to that or you can just give us an update on how you think that progresses? Thanks.
Gregory J. Hayes:
No, I think -- thanks, Peter. What we laid out, as you recall, back in September, we talked about the fact that some of the costs associated with the inspection interval, will end up in contract accounting at Pratt. And that'll depress margins on the aftermarket by about a point over time. Not significant, but it’s all contemplated in the Pratt guidance as we think about 2024, 2025.
Peter Arment:
Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Thanks Peter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Can you spend a little more time on defense margins? I mean, I heard the specifics you noted in the quarter, but just you know, continues to move lower. Is there some bigger, broader thing happening at the at the end market level. And Neil, did you ever provide a new consolidated, once you consolidated the two segments, margin target that's in the 25s. And just, you know, as you, as you spoke to 24 earlier in the call, can you just kind of update us on how you're expecting that defense margin to progress into the middle of the decade from here.
Christopher Calio:
Hey, Noah, it's Chris. Maybe I'll start and then ask Neil to talk about the consolidated Raytheon. First, in terms of the end markets, demand remains very robust. Here, Neil, talk about the 1.17 book to bill in the quarter, excuse me, year-to-date, the $7.4 billion in bookings in the quarter and the overall backlog of $50 billion. So really strong demand for the products. That said, we have had some headwinds. We've had some inflation hitting some fixed price programs. We've had a handful of challenging fixed price development contracts that have been a bit of a drag. That said, we have had some productivity gains in certain areas. As you might suspect, those mature higher volume programs, we have had some efficiency gains by leveraging supply chain with larger buys. And as we look forward, the supplier volume is growing. Labor attrition rates are decreasing, and frankly stabilizing. So those are some very positive signs as kind of we look forward in the defense business. And I'll say we just need to get through key milestones on those fixed price development contracts. We've talked about those on several calls now. And we've got some key milestones coming up over the next 12 months or so, that we've got to hit and get these programs through those milestones and then ultimately sold off.
Neil G. Mitchill:
Thanks, Chris. Let me just pick up on that where you left off. We definitely did provide a consolidated view, you're looking at margins around the midpoint, a little bit north of 12% when you get into 2025. I think as we look at the backlog, and the mix of what we see the sales shifting to between now and then we talked about, this year being sort of the low point of our mix, more domestically focused that we see that increasing over the next couple of years to be bit heavier on the foreign side, not surprising given the demand signals that we're seeing. So those are going to be the key drivers that get us heading in that direction. What we do know is that we have a really large backlog, $50 billion on the defense side right now and expect that to continue to grow. And we're focused on executing as we transition a number of programs as Chris was alluding to from early production to full rate production and those programs mature. So we know the formula for driving productivity. We have seen some challenges this year. And I think on the development programs, we'll see that happen over the next 12 months, but that's the story longer term.
Noah Poponak:
Is the rate of expansion in 2024 and 2025 similar, Neil, or is it more weighted to 2025?
Neil G. Mitchill:
It's going to be more weighted to 2025. We've got, as you know, a growing backlog here, but that will play out in sales probably later next year and accelerating through 2025.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. Hey Neil, maybe on the GTF, I'm looking forward, you're about to endeavor on something that looks pretty challenging in terms of 45% of the GTF powered A320 fleet on the ground. And managing all of the customers and their expectations and then you're on execution. I'm wondering, could you just lay out sort of the biggest risks in your screen that you're looking at? Is it part availability? Is it discovery of what incremental work might happen when you open up these engines? Is it maybe this MRO network coming online. There's just a lot balancing and maybe just a prioritization of the risk register would be helpful.
Christopher Calio:
Myles, this is Chris. Maybe I'll kick it off. The single, I think, biggest lever that we've got here and you kind of alluded to it is MRO output. I mean, obviously, it's a challenging time for the customers. There's going to be a fair amount of the aircraft on the ground. We've got to accelerate MRO output. And the key parts of those are capacity and material flow. On the capacity side, you heard about the expansions that we're doing both within the Pratt shops and across the network. In terms of material flow, you've heard us talk about this before, our objective is to put in full life HPT and HPC disks at these shop visits. And we've got to go continue to ramp those up. Again, that ramp up is well underway and progressing in key process steps like the powdered metal production, forging and heat treat. Investments have already been made and that capacity is in place. And then for more downstream processes like sonic inspection and machining, we're accelerating capacity there to make sure that we can meet this demand. And so some of this performed by Pratt and our partners and some by third parties. But again, very, very focused on the inspection capacity and the machining capacity. But at the end of the day, MRO output is what's going to support our customers and ultimately take down the AOGs and therefore take down the penalties we're going to have to pay to our customers.
Myles Walton:
Just a quick follow-up. Is that 19 number in 2025 of MRO shops different than your target earlier this year, I think it's the same. And so maybe just what has changed in terms of MRO network expansion?
Christopher Calio:
Yeah. Fair enough. It is the same, but we've accelerated as best we can. Some of these investments, I mean, they were in our plan. We've accelerated as much of that spend as we can. And again, it's bringing on the inspection capacity into the MRO shops. That's a key to unlocking, sort of the MRO throughput that I talked about. And then just, beyond that for a second Myles, you heard us talk earlier about the 35 or so day turnaround times on those project visits. And again, we know those aren't preponderance of the visits we're going to get. But there's a lot of learning’s that go on and a lot of learning curve that gets tackled when we're doing these things. So it's how quickly can we tear down? Inspection limits, repairs, test sell time, literally every part through every gate and MRO, taking time out and being more efficient and putting more resources in those areas.
Myles Walton:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
This might be a question for Chris. I'm following up on the powdered metal issue. When you spoke about this in September, you seemed pretty convinced that the issue would not be a problem on the A220, the E2 and the V2500, but it does sound like, there is something going on there now, although you said it's not significant. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on how the inspections have progressed on those engines. Thank you.
Christopher Calio:
Sure. Yeah, thanks for the question. So I think we had telegraphed on the last calls, we're going through our analysis is that those fleets would be far more manageable in terms of the impact. And while we will have, inspections and life limits on the 1500 in 1900. As we said, they will largely fall within the shop visit forecast we have today. The maintenance intervals on those frankly, are shorter than on the 1100. And so that's why many of these life limits and inspections fit within those plans. On the V2500, again, we've continued down that, inspection, accelerated inspection path we've had in place for about two years now. We're about halfway through that, through that fleet. And as we continue to do those inspections and learn more and analyze the data from those inspections. We're able to pinpoint, certain engines based on sort of their profile. Parts they've got in them thrust, you know, other characteristics that we've targeted for accelerated, you know, inspections. But again, think that's very manageable. That's a total of about a 100 or less shop visits stretched out over four years. And again, those are largely going to be project visit work scopes. And we've got a lot of experience on project visit work scope on the V2500. Those are in a 40 to 45 day turnaround time. We've become very, very proficient at those. So again, that's why we're calling those very manageable and will not have significant financial or operational impact.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe if you could just walk us through cash, $1.6 billion generated year-to-date, $4.8 billion for the year. How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment basis, as you head into the final quarter of 2023. And then just given stepped up GTF payments next year, what are the puts and takes there? And then if you don't mind, I just have to ask on the $10 billion ASR you know, why announce it now and not, you know, derisk some of the MRO output risk on the GTF?
Christopher Calio:
All right. Thanks, Sheila. Let me start with, what we need to do on free cash flow. So we were pleased to see $2.8 billion of free cash flow for the quarter, clearly strong and in line with the trajectory we need to see for the full year. And as you look at the fourth quarter, there's really two major parts that are going to drive, getting to the $4.8 billion. The first is clearly operating profit and we feel comfortable with that given the ranges we just put out there. And we need to see about $2 billion and a little over $2 billion of working capital improve in the fourth quarter. And I would break that down into about three buckets, about $500 million of inventory improvement Again, I think given the demand signals we're seeing and the growth we'll see in sales in the fourth quarter, we see that as achievable and manageable. We are expecting some significant advances and achievement of milestones on the defense side. So when you think about net liabilities and advances on contractual, long term contracts, that's about $1.2 billion. So that's a big piece of the fourth quarter. And then the rest really is the timing of disbursements that I would call normal in the course of business here. So a lot to do but we have good line of sight to those things as we look to the closing out the year. I'm not going to get into specifics about next year or the year after other than to say, we do see free cash flow growth in 2024. And we'll come back in January and provide more of a roadmap as to how you get there. And Greg, do you want to talk about the ASR?
Gregory J. Hayes:
Yes, sure. Sheila, the question around the ASR timing, I think it's a relevant question. And I would tell you we had a fulsome discussion with the board, about the timing of the ASR. And what convinced the management team and the board that it was the right time is our confidence in the powdered metal resolution. And having bound the financial impact of that, we saw this as an opportune time to double down on the stock. And again, if you think about it, we bought $2.6 billion back year to date. This is another $10 billion at what I believe to be a significant discount to intrinsic value. And this is the time to buy. And I think we're doubling down in terms of our confidence, confidence in the future of RTX, but also confidence that we really do have our arms around the powered metal issue.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.
Ronald Epstein:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Gregory J. Hayes :
Good morning, Ron.
Ronald Epstein:
When you look back on this situation, right? I mean, my understanding is, it first kind of creeped up, call it, the 2015 timeframe. And here we are today, what are the lessons learned? Like, on a go forward basis, because perhaps a going concern, there'll be new engines in the future. What are the big takeaways to not have this happen again?
Christopher Calio:
Hey, Ron, this is Chris. Yes, the incident that led to all of this was in March of 2020. And it wasn't until after we went through sort of a rigorous records review and did all of the investigation and the metallurgical analysis. Did we actually come to realize this was an incredibly rare defect. We hadn't seen it before. And then we were able to go back and trace it to 2015. But again, we didn't we didn't have that, the data in hand to make that determination until again much later into 2020. And if you just sort of step back and say, okay, once you figure that out, what would you guys do about it? Well, we made a number of systemic changes, you know, a Pratt powder metal processing facility, both manufacturing process changes and inspection techniques, we've gone through a rigorous safety risk assessment. I think you've heard us describe before, which incorporated all of the learnings from all of our inspection data into our models, right across every one of our programs. And you've seen us kind of go through those one by one as we prioritize the most impacted fleets. But again, it gets read across every single engine program that we've got. And then of course, we've responded by developing comprehensive fleet management plans that have a combination of the enhanced inspections that we've developed and the life limits on the parts. I would say maybe more broadly and unrelated to powdered -- the powdered metal situation. We've continued to leverage outside resources and expertise. We've got a product safety review committee comprised of outside industry experts and veterans that come in, look at our key engineering processes, do site visits, interview senior management and then below trying to understand culture and processes and what we can do better and they make recommendations. And we implement those. And that's something we do on a regular basis. Again, unrelated to the powdered metal, but we're not afraid to go leverage outside resources to give us another perspective.
Ronald Epstein:
And does that mean kind of going forward in just sort of the nuts and bolts of Pratt? It's just going to require some more investment in, you know, I don't know, infrastructure engineering or whatever to just, you know, kind of make sure everything's where it should be.
Christopher Calio:
But we're going to continue to invest, Ron, in automation for sure, both in terms of manufacturing process, and our quality system. I'll tell you, we're also making investments in machine learning so that we can look at all of this, the thousands and thousands of inspection records and data that we've got, you know, in house to help us better identify anomalies get out ahead of issues before they, turn into something, unfortunately, that has an impact on the fleet and on our customers. So we're going to continue to invest in those areas. We've had those investments plans in place. We're going to continue to accelerate those. Again, all part of the modernization of our footprint, and how we do things better, faster, leaner.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of J.P. Morgan.
Seth Seifman:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning.
Seth Seifman:
Maybe a small bundle here of questions about cash. I mean, given what the consensus is next year, $5.2 billion, you're buying back $10 billion stock or you're accelerating stock repurchase. I mean, is it pretty fair to assume that, you know, streets not going to be disappointed in what you guys have to say in January regarding cash. And then when we move out to 2025 and we think just about the impact, the change in R&D and the change in the interest expense that you'll have from the share repo. How should we be thinking about the 2025 target versus, what you told us last month.
Neil G. Mitchill:
Okay. Set. Thanks for the question. You know, we're not going to get ahead of 2024, but we do see free cash flow stepping up. We are comfortable with our $7.5 billion 2025 free cash flow target that we've talked about. And as you think about what is going to be higher interest and increased benefit from the R&D impact. Those will just about offset in 2025. And so that's why today, I feel comfortable staying with the $7.5 billion target for 2025. Of course, there's a lot of time between now and then, but those are the two moving pieces we see today.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks very much.
Gregory J. Hayes:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning, Kristine.
Kristine Liwag:
So maybe moving to a defense question, you know, the White House is requesting $106 billion (ph) in supplemental spending for a number of national security priorities, which includes over $50 billion in investment for the U.S. Defense industrial base. Looking at this request, you've got equipment for Ukraine, air and missile defense for Israel, and replenishment of stockpile for both. And this seems to fit quite nicely with the Raytheon Defense portfolio. So how much of this opportunity is addressable to the company and if the dollars are appropriated, when would be the earliest you could see this convert to revenue?
Gregory J. Hayes:
Kristine, let me start on that. So as I think I mentioned earlier in the conversation, we've seen about $3 billion of orders so far related to Ukraine replenishment. And that's really the replenishing U.S. war stocks. We expect another $4 billion of orders in the next two years. And most of that will play out over the next 24 to 36 months in terms of delivery. So you won't see a big revenue pop, even next year from this. As we think about this next tranche, the president's $100 billion plus request, which is more than $40 billion for Ukraine. What you're going to see is the same things that we have been seeing but in much higher quantities. So obviously, NACAM systems, which is the short range air defense system, and the Amram, munitions that we're using there. We're going to see those orders pick up. We would think significantly. The same is true with the Patriot air defense system. Again, those are GEMT (ph) missiles, that we supply for that. Those are in short supply today. So again, a big ramp there. But you'll also going to see other weapons systems come into play, specifically around countering the unmanned air vehicles. And we have systems today like the Coyote, which is very effective in terms of short range, dealing with these unmanned air vehicles. So again, I think really across the entire Raytheon portfolio, you're going to see a benefit of this restocking. On top of what we think is going to be an increase in DOD top line. Again, as we continue to replenish war stocks and also replenish some of the fleet in Pacific. So that's SM2s, SM3s, and other munitions that are really a huge part of this backlog that we've got today.
Kristine Liwag:
Thanks, Greg. And how do we think about the margin profile of these incremental opportunities? Are these new contracts margin accretive?
Gregory J. Hayes:
I would no -- actually, I wouldn't say they're margin accretive, nor would I say they're detrimental to margins. These are going out at kind of normal cost type programs, right? So you're talking about margins 10%, 11%, 12%. And again, these are well known in terms of the cost of these systems. We've been producing them for years. So we know what the costs are. And again, I think -- again, it's helpful to overall margins, but it's not hugely accretive. Again, I think Neil 10 to 12 was kind of kind of the sweet spot.
Neil G. Mitchill:
I think that's exactly right. These are mature programs that we've got a lot of history on. It's all about getting the supply chain ramped up to deal with the increased production that we expect.
Kristine Liwag:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of Wells Fargo.
Matt Akers:
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the question. I guess maybe just to clarify, the section 174, the $500 million benefit is part of that recovery from the 2022 payment. And I guess, how should we think about that sort of carrying forward that benefit into 2024?
Christopher Calio:
Thanks. That's a good question. Yes, some of that is, in fact, the recovery of the 2022 overpayments, if you will, we were able to file our tax return on a basis that assumed deductibility of these cost plus R&D contracts. What will happen though is it'll be a little bit of a headwind next year because we'll get a little bit more cash back this year in the form of making lower estimated tax payments. And then next year, we'll start to bake that into our next year's estimated tax payments and filing. So that's how that'll play out. If you kind of look at it over a multi-year period of time. It's about 40% of what we previously were deferring and amortizing. So if you kind of stretch that through 2026, that's about $1.7 billion of incremental goodness in free cash flow over that period.
Matt Akers:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein & Company.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Good morning.
Doug Harned:
Chris, when you talked about the -- on the GTF on the project visits, I mean, 35 days sounds like a very short number. When you look forward, before you would talked about removal to return time of 250 to 300 days, kind of a peak level of AOGs in H1 of 600 to 650. Now that you're looking at this process in more detail. Can you give us a sense of how any of that may have changed? And then also, if you're unable to do the replacements of discs and fibers and so forth, in the short term, presumably, that's an earlier revisit than you would have liked before. How does that affect your customers and the way you're thinking about the economics.
Christopher Calio:
Yep. Good questions, Doug. So the reason I mentioned the early, very early sort of handful of project visits and how we've done on turnaround times is honestly just to show, people that we are incredibly focused on taking minutes, hours, days out of this. And that can translate to the larger scope shop visits that we're going to face. And the organization's incredibly focused on literally every gate, within that process, including taking time out of the test cell process. But right now, Doug, those key assumptions that you just laid out the wing to wing 250 to 300, the PKOGs, those are the assumptions, those are what's baked in to the financial impact that we talked about here. And we're doing everything that we can to go, improve upon those. And as I said earlier, MRO output to us is the linchpin on that. And so I -- that's kind of where the organization's focus is, Doug, and that's where we've got to get better each and every day. To your point about, the new full life discs, yes, our plan today is to put those in, at OE first, in the first quarter of the year and then starting an MRO in the second quarter of the year at each of these shop visits, to the extent that the ramp up and the output isn't where it needs to be on those. We're not going to waste the induction slot. Doug, the engines will come in, they'll get an inspection into your point. They'll have to then come back in at a 2,800 to 3,800 cycle re-inspect, depending on the thrust of the engine, which is why it's so critical for us to continue this, ramp up in powdered metal forgings. So that when the engines leave the shop for these visits, they have got the longest time on wing, they can have and we don't see these back in our MRO shops during this period just because it'll add just more congestion.
Doug Harned:
Then if I may, one of the frustrations that I've heard out there is, you've taken the original tranche, the first tranche off in September, but airlines haven't seemed to be somewhat in the dark on the next set of engines that need to come off-wing and when that impact will, what is taking so long and being able to, help them know exactly what the impact and timing will be.
Christopher Calio:
We're actually having those discussions, Doug. I've been part of many of them, again, customer-by-customer looking at their engines by serial number. Again, because you've got to look at the cycle times on those and bounce them off against the fleet management plan. So it is, it's a rigorous thorough process, but we're having those conversations with customers. So they understand their specific impacts. As we said back, on the September call, the lion's share of these incremental shop visits that we're going to have the 600 to 700 in that ‘23 to ‘26. But two-thirds of those are ‘23 and relatively early in 2024. That's what causes that bow wave, Doug, that peak of 650 AOGs. And I think we talked earlier about when we're going to, provide some of those service bolt-ins and the ADs that are going to follow on. So that -- those communications are happening, you’re going to see that impact early in ‘24.
Doug Harned:
Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.
Ken Herbert:
Yes. Hi, good morning.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Morning Ken.
Ken Herbert:
Hi, Chris, I wanted to follow-up on that comment regarding your customer conversations. Can you provide any more sort of granularity on where you are in those conversations? And obviously, you've got, it sounds like incremental confidence in the ability to sort of bracket the risk around these, with all the uncertainty still with sort of timing on the shop visits. How are those conversations going and just give us any sort of metrics around what gives you that incremental confidence, I guess, on the customer side?
Christopher Calio:
Sure, Ken. Yes. Thanks for the question. So the focus, as you might imagine, over the last several months is walking our customers through the safety risk analysis, so that they understand that and what we're doing to ensure the continued safe operation of the fleet, then understanding the fleet management plans, cyclic limits, the inspection intervals, and its impact on their specific fleets. We're going to have certain customers, Ken that are going to be more impacted than others, just by virtue of their size, their reliance on the GTF. Again, it differs by customer. Conversations, as you might imagine, they're difficult. Customers understand what we're doing from a safety risk perspective, and think we're doing the right thing, but they're certainly not happy with the net effect. And they've not been happy with the fleet health even prior to powdered metal and our output on MRO and getting them the spare assets, and the engines in our shops, that the need. And so those are obviously difficult conversations, as you might imagine, Ken, and we’re having them with each customer individually as we go through and tailor their support packages. Again, some are more impacted then others, but those conversations are ongoing, and they will continue into the early part of year once people truly understand a fleet-by-fleet customer-by-customer impact and the changes they’re going to have to make for their flights, their network and what not. So those conversation are happening will progress early into next year.
Ken Herbert:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude the Q&A portion of our call. I would now like to turn the call back to, Greg Hayes, for closing remarks.
Gregory J. Hayes:
Okay. Thanks Latif, and thanks all for listening in today. As always, Jennifer and the IR team will be around to take your calls, and we look forward to seeing all of you in the coming weeks and months. Take care. Thank you.
Operator:
This now concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the RTX second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. My name is Latif and I will be your operator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Gregory Hayes:
Thank you and good morning everyone. It was another strong quarter for RTX with continued strength across all of our end markets. On the commercial aerospace side industry-wide, we saw 1,200 new orders announced around the Paris Air Show. This is the largest number of orders in the history of the air show as airlines look to secure production slots well into the next decade. Global commercial air traffic remains on track with our projections with a very robust summer travel season, driven by incredibly strong consumer demand. This dynamic is supporting strength in the aftermarket and growth across the globe with revenue passenger kilometers now tracking at about 95% of 2019 levels, and long haul international, which has lagged in the recovery is showing strong growth with passenger flight hours up 18 points year-over-year, a good indicator for increasing demand for wide body travel. Turning to defense, we’re pleased that the House defense appropriation bill fully funds many of our programs, including importantly the F-135 engine core upgrade, which is the only engine funded for the F-35 joint strike fighter. Additionally, the bill also recommends the full budget request for other key RTX programs such as LTAMDS, LRSO, hypersonics, and Standard Missile-3. Internationally, we saw the State Department approve a large sale of advanced air defense systems for Poland as it bolsters its security amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This would expand our existing partnership with Poland and make Poland the first international customer for our LTAMDS system, representing a key transition for this next-generation Raytheon franchise. Before we get into details of the quarter, as you saw in our press release this morning, we are working through an issue resulting from a rare condition in powdered metal that will require Pratt & Whitney to remove some engines from service for inspection earlier than expected. I want to make just a couple of comments here at the outset. First of all, it’s important to know that we understand the issue and we have begun to address it through an inspection protocol that we already have in place. That said, clearly this will have an impact on Pratt & Whitney and our customers. Chris and Neil will provide additional color later in the call on how we’re going to address the issue as well as the operational and financial impacts. As you’d expect, we’ll dedicate all the necessary resources to manage this. Now let’s turn to Slide 2 to go through some key highlights from the quarter. Q2 was another strong quarter of strong demand in both the commercial and defense segments of our business with $25 billion of new orders. This brings our total backlog to a record $185 billion. On the commercial side, Collins continues to convert its industry-leading portfolio into solid order strength. As I mentioned, industry-wide there were about 1,200 new aircraft orders announced in Paris. The aggregate amount of Collins and Pratt content on those aircraft will be about $20 billion through the life of the programs. On the defense side across the RTX businesses, we captured $13 billion in net bookings in the quarter, driving a strong book-to-bill of 1.22, and this takes our defense backlog to $73 billion. Contributing to the backlog in the second quarter were a number of significant awards, including $2 billion at Pratt & Whitney for Lot 17 of the F-135 engines and $1.5 billion for 117 sustainment. The Raytheon segment was awarded its largest ever AMRAAM contract for $1.2 billion from the U.S. Air Force and international partners, including Ukraine. The AMRAAMs will work in concert with their existing NASAM batteries to help protect the Ukrainian people. Earlier this month, we executed the business realignment. We are now officially operating as three business units. Our team has done a tremendous job in a relatively short period of time, shifting roughly $3 billion of sales and thousands of employees across our portfolio to better meet the evolving needs of our customers. Of course, our transformation isn’t done. We will continue to develop initiatives to better leverage our scale and breadth and to enable operational excellence and a best-in-class cost structure. Finally, as many of you saw last week, we agreed to divest Collins’ actuation business to Safran. We expect this deal to close in the second half of 2024 with proceeds from the transaction about $1.8 billion. With respect to our full year outlook, we’re going to raise the top line to reflect the strength we’re seeing in our end markets. The new range will be $73 billion to $74 billion. We’re also going to bring up the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by a nickel to $4.95 to $5.05; however, we are going to reduce our 2023 cash flow expectations by $500 million to $4.3 billion, and this is primarily to reflect the developments at Pratt & Whitney that I discussed earlier. With that, let me turn it over to Neil to walk you through our financial results in more detail. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Greg. Let’s look at Q2 results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we had another solid quarter with sales of $18.3 billion, up a strong 13% organically versus the prior year with growth across all four of our segments. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was up 11% year-over-year with strong adjusted segment operating profit growth of 26%, partially offset by lower pension income and a higher effective tax rate. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.90 per share and included $0.26 of acquisition accounting adjustments, an $0.08 charge related to an airline customer insolvency, and $0.05 of restructuring and segment and portfolio transformation costs. Free cash flow of $193 million was generally in line with what we discussed when we were together in Paris last month, and finally on the capital allocation front, we repurchased $596 million in shares, putting us at about $1.2 billion year-to-date, on track for $3 billion in share repurchases for the full year. Let’s turn to Slide 4 to get into the Q2 segment results. Beginning with RMD, sales were $4 billion in the quarter, up 12% on an adjusted basis and 13% organically primarily driven by higher volume from air power, advanced technology and land warfare and air defense programs. Adjusted operating profit of $427 million was up $79 million versus the prior year, driven by favorable net program efficiencies and drop-through on higher volume, partially offset by unfavorable mix resulting from early stage production programs. RMD had $3.6 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $35 billion. In addition the AMRAAM award that Greg mentioned earlier, RMD also received a $265 million award for Javelin and a $251 million award for AIM-9X missiles. Year-to-date, RMD has a book-to-bill of 1.17. Shifting to RINS on Slide 5, sales of $3.7 billion were up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted and organic basis. This was driven by higher revenue from sensing and effects as well as cyber and services programs, which was partially offset by lower sales from command, control and communications programs. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $297 million was down $18 million versus prior year, primarily due to unfavorable mix and higher operating expenses which more than offset improved productivity and drop-through on higher volume; however, as I mentioned in June, we still saw unfavorable productivity in the quarter due to a handful of fixed price development programs. In the quarter, RINS had $3.1 billion of bookings, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.96 and a backlog of $17 billion. Bookings at Q2 in RINS included about $1.1 billion in classified award and $322 million for federal and civil cyber defense services. On a year-to-date basis, RINS has a book-to-bill of 1.15. Turning to Collins on Slide 6, sales were $5.9 billion in the quarter, up 17% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by strong demand across commercial aerospace end markets which resulted in higher flight hours and higher OE production rates. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 29% driven by a 68% increase in provisioning and a 28% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 7%. On the commercial OE side, commercial OE sales were up 14% versus the prior year, which included growth in wide body, narrow body and business jets, and military sales were up 5% due to higher development volume. Adjusted operating profit of $837 million was up $220 million or 36% from the prior year with drop-through on higher sales volume and favorable mix which more than offset higher production costs, as well as higher R&D and SG&A expenses. Turning to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7, sales of $5.7 billion were up 15% on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across the commercial segments partially offset by lower military volume. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26% in the quarter due to higher shop visit volume and content in both large commercial engine and Pratt & Whitney Canada businesses. Commercial OE sales were up 22% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries and favorable mix. In the military business, sales were down 3%. The decline in sales was driven by the timing of the F-135 production contract award in the prior year, which was partially offset by higher F-135 sustainment volume this year. Adjusted operating profit of $436 million was up $133 million from prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales and favorable large commercial OE mix partially offset by higher production costs and higher R&D expenses. Note that both this quarter and the prior year quarter had a similar sized contract benefit of roughly $60 million. With that, before we get into the updated outlook for 2023, let me turn it over to Chris to give some additional color on the Pratt fleet.
Christopher Calio:
Okay, thanks Neil. Let me share with you what I can at this point about the Pratt matter. As you heard from Greg, Pratt previously determined that a rare condition in powdered metal used to manufacture certain engine parts may reduce the life of those parts. It’s important to note upfront that the current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. I’ll come back to that in a minute. As a result of this rare condition in powdered metal, Pratt instituted enhanced inspections to be performed at scheduled shop visits; however, based on very recent learnings from these inspections, Pratt has now determined that the timing of these shop visits needs to be accelerated. While powdered metal parts have been widely used throughout Pratt’s product lines for decades, Pratt has bounded the potentially impacted material. It has concluded that this condition was present in rare instances in powdered metal produced from approximately Q4 2015 into Q3 2021. The PW1100 engine fleet which powers the A320 Neo will experience the most significant impact due to production volumes during this period. Based on the current assessment, Pratt anticipates by mid-September that approximately 200 PW1100 engines will be removed for enhanced inspection. Beyond the initial 200 engines, Pratt also anticipates that approximately 1,000 additional PW1100 engines will need to be removed from the operating fleet for this inspection within the next 9 to 12 months, though the exact number of engines and the timing of those removals is not yet finalized. It’s important to note that some of the engines that must be removed for inspection in 2023 and 2024 are already forecasted for a regular shop visit during this time period, and so the incremental impact to the fleet is still under evaluation. Capability to perform the accelerated inspections, which are focused on the high pressure turbine discs, is already in place and Pratt is developing plans to optimize shop visit capacity within its network to complete these inspections as quickly and efficiently as possible. As I said earlier, current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. This is a result of the combination of extensive improvements that were made to our powder processing to remove possible contamination sources and the deployment of enhanced inspections for improved detection. Pratt is also analyzing any potential impact to other parts of its fleet, but the current expectation is that they will less impacted based upon existing inspections, utilization profiles and maintenance intervals. Let me take a moment to explain the timing of these developments. We proactively monitor the performance of our engines throughout their life cycle. It’s foundational to how we maintain and manage the safe operation of our fleet. We do this in a number of ways
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Chris. Let’s start with the segment outlook. As Chris mentioned, there continue to be a number of evolving assumptions around the financials at Pratt. Let me try to put some additional color around that, starting with the top line. Commercial aftermarket demand remains strong and we are continuing to ramp production. Because of this, we are confident in our prior sales range of up low to mid teens. On the profit side, given the strong first half results and continued top line growth, we still expect between $200 million and $275 million of operating profit growth for the year. Within that outlook for Pratt, here’s what we are assuming as it relates to the increased engine removals and inspections. Given Pratt’s results to date and aftermarket strength, the impact of the first 200 engines is contemplated within the range we just provided. Keep in mind, given the percentage of completion accounting for the aftermarket contracts and the relatively early life of the programs, the P&O impact will be less significant today. However, for the reasons Chris described, the impact of any further engine removals from service for inspection is not currently assumed in our outlook. Moving to Collins, given the strong results in the first half and the continued strength we are seeing in commercial aftermarket, we are increasing the full year sales range from up low double digits to a new range of up low double digits to low teens, and as a result of this increased demand and continued execution, we now expect Collins adjusted operating profit to be up between $825 million and $875 million compared to the prior range of $750 million to $825 million. Turning to the new Raytheon segment, given the strength of the backlog and the accelerating top line, we expect sales for the combined segment to grow low to mid single digits versus 2022. While we have begun to see increased material flow and improved efficiencies, we had lower productivity than we expected in the first half of the year, including costs associated with fixed price development programs, and similar to Q1, we anticipate another contract option exercise that will lead to a headwind in third quarter. With all that said, we’re expecting continued volume growth and second half productivity improvements, and altogether we see adjusted operating profit up between $125 million and $175 million versus prior year. Now let me summarize all this at the RTX level. As Greg mentioned, we’re increasing our full year RTX sales outlook to $73 billion to $74 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 9% and 10%. This is up from our prior outlook of $72 billion to $73 billion. With respect to earnings, we are tightening our adjusted earnings per share range by $0.05 on the bottom end and now expect adjusted EPS of between $4.95 and $5.05, given the first half results and some improvement in below-the-line items. We’ve provided an update on those below-the-line items in the appendices. Turning to free cash flow, the impact of the Pratt matter will be more meaningful on cash flow as we begin to ramp up inspections and MRO activity this year. As a result, we now see free cash flow up approximately $4.3 billion for the year, about $500 million below our prior outlook. Finally, we’ll transition to the new segment reporting here in the third quarter and we’ve provided the re-cast 2022 and 2023 quarterly financials in the appendices. With that, let me turn it over to Greg for some closing remarks.
Gregory Hayes:
Okay, thanks Neil. Just some closing thoughts before we get to the Q&A. We obviously had a very strong second quarter with $25 billion in new orders, which brings our backlog to a record $185 billion. Sales were also very strong with 13% organic revenue growth. This strength in sales and orders reflects the strength in both our commercial aero and defense markets. RPMs are on track to return to pre-COVID levels as we exit 2023, and military spending globally continues to increase in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the emerging threats in the INDOPACOM theater. Based on the continued strength in our markets, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for 2023 and beyond. With that, let’s open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks very much, good morning.
Gregory Hayes:
Morning Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Let’s start with the GTF, shall we? By my count, this is the third issue you’re dealing with at the moment - you have that quality escape noted at Paris, the ongoing time-only issues in these challenging environments, and now the metal problem. Is there a root problem or cause that’s linking these issues, and are you concerned about the potential impact on Pratt’s reputation for reliability? Thank you.
Christopher Calio:
Yes, thanks Rob, this is Chris. I’ll start. Obviously this is a disappointing development and will impact our customers. Let me just sort of take a step back and kind of walk you through the processes that are in place across Pratt. It’s got a strong process of fleet surveillance, evaluation, and taking corrective action that is used to support the safety of the fleet. In this particular case, the process worked, but I will tell you that, again, we continue to monitor the situation with the fleet, we continue to find learnings in fleet, and then we take those actions and update our models and correct them. But if you step back, this is not a GTF design issue, this is a manufacturing process issue on our part with metal. We very quickly went and enhanced those processes to make sure this doesn’t happen again and put in place the enhanced inspection techniques to make sure that we can continue to find this and address them promptly. We’re taking prompt action. Right now, we’ve got work through how we define work scope and the turnaround time that’s required, and of course do all the impact to the fleet that’s going to be required. Again, we talked about the comments upfront, GTF is going to have a lot of shop visits here in the back half of ’23 and into ’24. We need to figure out how many of those are incremental and what the true impact to the fleet is, but that’s ongoing. But again, we’re going to continue to invest in the GTF in the durability improvements that Shane talked about at investor day in June, and of course the GTF advantage. We will work through this difficult time, but again we continue to believe in the GTF, its architecture and its future.
Robert Stallard:
Okay, thanks Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Thanks, good morning. Neil, I’m trying to understand the scaling of the $500 million lower free cash flow to the total population of engines that you’re going to be removing and inspecting. I think you said that the first 200 are encompassed in the guidance, but it wasn’t clear if that was just the segment profit guidance you were talking about. Also, obviously this is lingering into ’24 to get that whole 1,200 population, so should we think about a similar sized cash impact in ’24?
Neil Mitchill:
Got it. Let me start with what I can tell you now. First, let me remind you, it’s very early in this process. We have begun to investigate what the costs and the work scope and the timing might be, but there will be some learnings over the next 30 to 60 days and we’ll certainly come back and talk to you a little bit about that. As I think about the guidance, the comment I made was with respect to the Pratt guidance. Again, we had a first half that was very strong at Pratt. I think we’re well on track for the year, all else equal; but a couple of dynamics that will likely keep the P&L impact associated with the 200 accelerated inspections manageable for the year. First is we’ve talked about 85% of this fleet is under a long term contract, and we’re less than 5% complete on those programs on average, so as Chris just mentioned, we don’t know exactly how many but some of those 200 are already scheduled for a visit this year. When we think about those two things, that sort of helps us bound what the impact could be for this year with respect to that population. Given the thousand and the fact that a number of those are also already scheduled for a shop visit, we still need some more time to go think through that. As it relates to the cash flow, similar train of thought there - we really do need a little bit more time to go through this, but we’ve put a risk into our outlook because we know that we’ll have some calls on cash over the rest of the year. I would say there’s two things that are impacting the cash flow. The first is what I’d call the direct impact, and the second is what I’d call the indirect. On the direct side, it’s really going to be things like accelerated capital, some inventory to get ready for these inspections, expenses associated with the work that we’ll start to perform during the last quarter of the year, and then obviously customer disruption, so more to go there. Indirectly, there’s other work that this may disrupt in our business, and so we’re contemplating some of that as we look at this year. I think it’s a bit too early to kind of extrapolate that out to ’24 and ’25. Certainly we’ll come back over the next couple of months and provide a better update.
Myles Walton:
Can you clarify if the powder metal supplier is internal to you?
Gregory Hayes:
Myles, this is Greg. Yes, so we actually manufacture the powder in our facility in New York. That powder is then processed down in our Columbus, Georgia forge into a number of different parts. The parts we’re talking about here are turbine discs, but they are all internally manufactured with a proprietary powder.
Myles Walton:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.
Ronald Epstein:
Yes, hey. Good morning. A question for you, Greg. Kind of getting back to Rob’s question, when you look at the litany of issues that have happened here with this engine, everything from hot section issues, manufacturing issues, do you have a cultural issue in your engineering workforce? Are people not talking to each other? I mean, it also begs the question, how could you guys possibly not know about this at Paris when you did this major investor event? Can you just give us all some insight into how people are communicating and what’s going on in your engineering workforce?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, you know Ron, we should differentiate between the durability issues that Shane talked about and that I’d call this a manufacturing quality issue. Let’s just take a step back. This is an issue that we first uncovered back in 2020 when we had an incident with a V2500 turbine disc. As a result of that investigation, we determined at that point that we had some contamination in this powdered metal that we make. It occurred very, very rarely, but it did happen, and it actually resulted in the turbine disc failure on an airline. As a result of that, we went through and did two things. First of all, we went out and inspected the V2500 fleet, but we also went back and we took a look at the powdered metal process to determine how this contamination happened. Through a lot of work, through a lot of discovery, we figured out what the contaminants were and by the end of 2021, about a year after that, we were able to manufacture powder that was, I would say, contaminant-free to the best of our ability. At the same time, we knew that this contamination had occurred between late 2015 and late 2020, early 2021, so we knew we had a suspect population in the fleet. We went out and so we started inspecting. We inspected the turbine discs as they were manufactured, we inspected turbine discs as they came back in, not just for the V but for the whole GTF fleet, in fact the entire fleet of Pratt products that were manufactured during this time frame. Those inspections, and there were over 3,000 of those inspections, yielded a very, very small fall-out rate, less than 1%. As Chris said, all of this data goes into our lifing model for the turbine disc, and based upon everything that we knew until very recently, we believe that the life of the turbine disc was such that we would see these discs in the shop and be able to inspect them before we ever had an issue. Now as we looked at the data again over the last couple of months, our safety risk assessment, our safety board went through their process of updating the data based on all the recent findings, and they said, you know what? We’re not absolutely positive that the lifing model is accurate, and so we want to take a look at these discs on a much accelerated basis. I would tell you, that is exactly the way the process is supposed to work, and so we’re going to pull back 200 discs, or 200 engines and look at the discs here in the next 90 days or so. In the next year, based upon those findings from the first 200, we think there’s probably another 1,000 out there, so 1,200 out of a little over 3,000 engines out there have to be inspected. But this is not a manufacture--sorry, it’s not a design issue. In fact, the engineers have been working on this issue hand-in-glove with the safety board and everybody else in manufacturing for the last three years, so I don’t believe that we have an engineering issue. Obviously this was a quality escape back from--you know, sometime between 2015 and 2020, and we are doing, I think, exactly the right thing, which is to bring these engines back, inspect them and ensure the safety of the fleet going forward. I think again, it’s--look, this engine, Ron as you know, has been a challenge since we launched it back in 2015. You guys can remember talking about bode rotors and all the other issues that we had, but if you think about this engine operating at the temperatures that we do, it has been a continuous discovery. This is not one of them. This is simply a quality issue from a manufacturing problem, so I would say, look, we’re on top of it, we’ve got this. It’s going to be expensive. We’re going to make the airlines whole as a result of the disruption we’re going to cause them, and I think we’re going to work ourselves through it. It’s not an existential threat to RTX; it’s not even an existential threat to Pratt. It is a problem, and we have them every day. We’ll solve it.
Ronald Epstein:
All right, got it.
Gregory Hayes:
Thanks Ron.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.
Peter Arment:
Yes, thanks. Good morning. Greg, thanks for that color there, I appreciate that. On the powdered metal just specifically, when did you make the change? Was it back in 2020 or ’21, just so we can have better clarity on the engines that are being delivered today?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, so it was mid to late 2021 where we changed all the processes in terms of the screening of the powdered metal to identify the contaminant, to eliminate the contaminant. Let’s be clear - this is a--these contaminants are microscopic, and unfortunately the original process, as we scaled up production for GTF, it got away from us a little bit. We fixed it, but I would tell you everything that we have shipped, or almost everything we have shipped, I should say, in the last three years, we believe is going to be just fine. That’s why we’re confident we can continue to support Airbus, continue to support customers with new deliveries, as well as with spares this year and next.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate it, thanks Greg.
Gregory Hayes:
Thanks Peter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning guys, thank you very much. Just on free cash flow, can we walk through the bridge, $1.2 billion of free cash flow usage in the first half, $4.3 billion expectation for the year? How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment level basis in working capital? What are you expectations for factoring for the year, whether it’s a benefit or a headwind, and do we think about $500 million of Pratt impact for 200 engines, is that the rate we should assume going forward in future years or is that something you guys are working through?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Sheila. This is Neil, and good morning. I will take that one. First of all on the half a billion dollars, I wouldn’t extrapolate that. We need some more time, as I said earlier in the call, so let’s just focus on ’23. As I look at the walk from the first half to the second half, I’ll also say that we ended the quarter with positive cash flow, pretty much as expected, so the back half of the year is as we expected it to be. Obviously there’s some work to do there to generate the cash consistent with the profile we had last year. The major piece is really our--I’d put it in four major buckets. Obviously we have the rest of the year segment operating profit - it’s a little less than $4 billion or so. We feel pretty good about that, consistent with the guides that we just provided and updated. We’ve got capital, second half capital which is going to be a headwind of about $1.4 billion, and then we’ve got a working capital item that we have to kind of burn down - it’s about $3.5 billion, about $2 billion of that is inventory, I’d say split pretty evenly between Pratt and Collins, and then a billion dollars of the net contract asset liabilities, which is principally in the Raytheon segment, and that lines up to milestone payments we expect to receive in the back half of the year, as well as some international advances similar to what we had last year, that would occur late in the fourth quarter. The rest of the puts and takes are really the things we’ve talked about - pension, taxes, interest and other. The net of that is about half a billion dollars of an outflow in the second half. Again, same profile we were staring at 35, 45 days ago. We’ve layered in the Pratt impact - I think that mostly will impact working capital, it may have some capex as well.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning guys.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning Kristine.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
For the Pratt issue, it seems like the free cash flow impact in 2024, 2025 is still a little bit unclear. How should we think about how this affects your 2025 free cash flow outlook of $9 billion, and is that still the number you’re reiterating or should we think about potential downside risk?
Neil Mitchill:
Hey, good morning Kristine. I’ll take that to start. Clearly all things equal, the issue we just talked about is going to put some pressure on Pratt margins and would put pressure on cash. I think it’s too early to put a number on that. We’re going to need some time to go through and understand what’s the work scope, how does that intersect with already planned work scope and the profile of those shop visits, and of course we’re always focused on trying to drive more out of our businesses and we would do the same here. I think I’ll leave it at that. We will come back to you over the next couple of months with more detail. Greg?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, just maybe the way to think about this is we’re going to pull 200 engines back this year, a bunch of those were going to come back anyways, and then next year it’s another 1,000 and a bunch of those were already planned. Having said that, though, we know right now we’ve got 13 MRO facilities, we’re going to have to--our plan was to go to 19, we’re going to have to accelerate some of the tooling - that’s contemplated in this cash. We’re going to have to dedicate some spares to a rotable pool of engines to support some customers. Those things, again, will be behind us, I would say probably by the middle of next year in terms of the cash outflows associated with that. The big question in everybody’s mind will be, what are we going to have to do in terms of compensation to the airlines. We have contracts and special support agreements that are out there, so we’ll work through that but it’s going to take time. I guess the main point, though, is by the end of next year, this inspection program will be almost all complete and the 2025 outlook really shouldn’t be impacted, other than as Neil said, potential margin impact as some of these costs roll through the GTF support contracts. But again, we’ve got two years to work through that and we will figure that out, but in terms of the cash, really probably not a big difference as you get out to 2025.
Kristine Liwag:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JP Morgan.
Seth Seifman:
Thanks very much, and good morning. I wanted to ask a question about the Raytheon business. It looks like, and I want to make sure I’ve got the right recapped numbers here, but it looks like first half to second half, only kind of a modest sales increase expected but fairly healthy profit increase to get to the 150 of profit growth at midpoint. I guess if you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that, especially in light of the option exercise you mentioned, and then also, I thought there was pretty good top line momentum at RND in the quarter, and the degree to which you do or don’t expect that to continue in the second half.
Christopher Calio:
Hey Seth, this is Chris. When you look at RND--we’ll break it down into the pieces of the new Raytheon segment. When you look at RND, we started to see some positive momentum in particular around material growth, right - about 14% year-over-year material growth. The kit fill rates that we’ve talked about for some time that were hovering in those mid to low 50s, were up into the mid 70s, so we’re starting to see material flow which is a big part of the continued productivity story at RND. At RIS, I would say, again, less material intensive but very good material flow and kit fill rates. The issues that we’re continuing to grapple with are the fixed price development contracts that we’ve got. We’ve mentioned before, we’ve got a handful of fixed price development contracts that are technologically very complex, that we continue to work our way through. We believe we’ll make significant progress on those here in 2023 and into early 2024, but overall again seeing positive momentum on the productivity front at Raytheon.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Chris. Let me add a couple comments here too regarding productivity. I think the first half of the year was encouraging in some regards - we turned the corner a bit. I think on a year-over-year basis for the first half of the new combined business, we’re essentially flat year-over-year. We are expecting about $100 million of productivity step-up in the second half of the year - think about that as--I’m sorry, on a full year basis, so about $75 million or so in the second half of the year. The material receipts is what makes us have the confidence around that path to the second half of the year. The other encouraging point I would say is particularly at the missile business, we saw the sales tick up on that material receipt and the mix of that material had good drop-through on it, so we’re starting to see the transition of the mix of production from development. We talked about 2023 being the low point. That’s how we’ve calibrated this into this revised outlook. We’ve also taken into account the first half performance as we’ve readjusted this realignment in the second half of the year.
Seth Seifman:
Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.
Ken Herbert:
Yes, hi. Good morning.
Neil Mitchill:
Morning Ken.
Ken Herbert:
Maybe Chris or Neil, if you could dig a little bit further into what you bucketed as the other disruptions as we think about maybe an incremental diversion of engines into the spare pool and how we think about stresses on the capacity of the network as you deal with not only the 200 this year but the 1,000 next year. Within that other bucket, where do you see the primary risks or maybe the greatest unknowns as you think about the potential eventual impact on cash?
Christopher Calio:
Hey Ken, thanks. This is Chris. I’ll start. As we kind of noted upfront, there are a number of variables that are going into the fleet impact, both this year and next
Ken Herbert:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason Gursky of Citi.
Jason Gursky:
Hey, good morning everybody. You talked a little bit about the capacity in MRO. Can you talk a little bit about the capacity for the part itself, the internal manufacturing capabilities that you have there and whether this is another potential constraint for you all on the GTF?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, thanks Jason, this is Chris. Greg mentioned upfront that we’ve had this enhanced inspection technique in place for some time and have been doing these inspections. On the V2500 in particular, we’ve had, I think Greg, you said almost 3,000 of those inspections. I will tell you that the fall-out rate from that on this part has been very, very low, and so at this particular time, Jason, we don’t believe that the HPT will be the limiting factor, if you will, in terms of the turnaround time and our ability to work through this as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Jason Gursky:
Mm-hmm. If you were to go and do one of these inspections today, do you have a sense of--are we talking about weeks or days, or months to do this inspection?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, so we’re talking HPT discs, Jason, and so that particular module, you can’t necessarily do that on wing. You’ve got to take the engine off wing, you’ve got to disassemble the engine to get to that particular area. Unfortunately, based on the geometry and location of the part, you do have to remove the part to do this enhanced inspection capability, reassemble and then get it back out to the fleet. I think I mentioned before, we’re trying to turn this into, as best we can, what we would call a project visit, not a full interval shop visit, but that work is still underway. Obviously making sure the wing-to-wing turnaround time is as short as possible and doing what we need to do is an important element of understanding the fleet impact and what we need to do from a network perspective.
Jason Gursky:
Is there any silver lining to this at all, in the sense that you mentioned optimization on how you’re going to deal with these visits and these inspections? Is there an opportunity here to get through some of the durability swap-outs that you need to do anyway, so that you can kill two birds with one stone, so to speak, as you do these inspections?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, so when you think about that 2024 shop visit population, we’re going to, again, take a look at the utilization on those, the cycle time on those engines, and in working with our customers making a decision, a mutual decision on is this the right candidate for a project visit or should that work scope increase to take on additional work, which will benefit the time on wing and the interval of that engine moving forward several years. That is a decision, that is a conversation that we will have once we better understand again how many of these visits are truly incremental in 2024, and then the related fleet impacts. As you know, Jason, that is a part of the equation.
Jason Gursky:
Then lastly, do you think you’re going to learn enough by the time we have the October earnings call to provide us a little bit more clarity on things, or do you think this is going to be a discovery process that takes us out a number of months, into the end of the year?
Gregory Hayes:
Jason, we’re discovering something new every day here, so I think--all I would tell you is that over the next, I would say six weeks as we finalize the inspection protocols, as we finalize the turn times and work with our customers, keep in mind we’re trying to get the first 200 engines back by the middle of September, so I think by the middle of September, we’ll have a much better feel for what is involved here. We’ll have an opportunity to update everybody around that time. I think by the time we get to October, obviously we’ll know even more as we go through some of the initial inspections, so this is a learning process. We understand what it takes to inspect, we understand what it takes in terms of the inductions and the processes, and unless there is some surprise, I think we can have this pretty well bounded in terms of what the cost impact is, in terms of what the cash flow impact is, and so by the time we get to the third quarter call, obviously we’ll have a hell of a lot more knowledge than we do sitting here today.
Jason Gursky:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr of Cowen.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thank you so much for taking my call. By my calculations, you delivered something like 1,600, 1,700 GTFs by the middle of ’21, so how do we get to 1,200 engines? I mean, are we sure that’s the number? Could it be a larger number, and is this just related to the PW1000 or does it also impact the Vs?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, so let me start maybe with the second part first, Cai. Our current assessment is that we don’t expect the same type of impact on the V2500. It has had an enhanced inspection fleet plan and management plan in place for some time, and as I noted and as Greg noted, we’ve completed a significant number of those inspections thus far and feel comfortable that this can be managed at this point within the existing shop visit forecast. As Greg noted, we’re still going through that analysis, it will take us into August to finalize that, but that’s our current expectation. Same on the other Neo applications - there are different characteristics and attributes on those engines, whether it be stress on the part, whether it be thrust, that we believe differentiates it from the 1,100, and such our current assessment is those can be managed within the existing shop visit forecast that we have for 2024. In terms of the population, Cai, you heard Greg talk about when we bounded the potentially contaminated material, we put in place the enhanced processes for powdered metal at that time and also put in the enhanced inspection techniques that we’ve talked about. Many of the engines that have come off, all of the engines that come off since that time have gone through this inspection and have been a part of what we would call this better powder processing regime. Ultimately we will inspect parts when they come in for their normal shop visit on down the line, Cai - as you know, these engines will come back for shop visits and we will inspect this, among other things during that time. What we’re talking about right now are those that we need to accelerate the shop visit for. Again, that’s based on all the variables that we talked about. We feel confident that as part of the safety management board that Pratt has, that we’ve got the right population and the right plan in place.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Just one quick follow-on, we’ve hit on all the negatives, but you just got this announcement of this $2.9 billion potential AMRAAM order from Germany. Can you give us some color on your munitions outlook in the out years, is that substantially better?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes Cai, it’s nice to talk about something other than GTF. Look - this AMRAAM order is an order that will be for both Germany, really for all of the NATO countries, that will also benefit Ukraine. I would tell you, that is on top of what we expect to see as relatively large order for GEM-T missiles associated with the Patriot air defense system. We have orders there from Saudi Arabia, we have orders coming from NATO. I think in the back half of the year, you’re going to see significant--we’re planning significant order intake on both AMRAAM and GEM-T, as well as of course Excalibur. Neil mentioned we’ve got the Javelin order, we had the Stinger order already - those orders will continue to grow. But I’ll tell you right now, we still have only seen $2 billion of orders associated specifically with Ukraine replenishment. We think there’s probably another $2.5 billion coming in the next 12 months associated with just the Ukraine replenishment on top of the GEM-Ts, and the GEM-Ts, again they’ll go to Germany, they’ll go to Poland, they’ll go to all 18 of those countries that are currently operating Patriot, so I think that’s a very positive sign and that’s why we’re so bullish on the defense outlook for the next couple of years.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks, good morning. Sorry, back to the GTF.
Gregory Hayes:
Come on!
David Strauss:
Sorry. I just wanted to ask you about how closely coordinated you are at this point with the regulatory bodies with regard to this, and have they kind of signed off on your plan or is there any risk here of potentially the population or the timeline of these inspections getting accelerated?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, thanks David, this is Chris. I would say all of this has been very closely coordinated with the FAA. I think you heard me upfront talk about that this will come in the form of a service bulletin that Pratt will publish, and then likely an AD that the FAA will distribute. But our safety management process, whether it be through events that happen in the field, things that we find through our continuous surveillance process or recommendations and assessment like this, are always very closely coordinated with the FAA, and then of course with the other international regulatory bodies as well. FAA of course is where we start, but we of course continue to coordinate with the FAA and those other international bodies, but bottom line, very closely coordinated with them.
David Strauss:
Okay, and a quick follow-up, you keep mentioning fall-out rate, low fall-out rate. I assume that is where you actually have to replace the high pressure turbine discs. What exactly have you assumed in terms of a fall-out rate, and given it sounds like the inspection here is pretty involved, how much more involved would it be and costly to be to actually replace the high pressure turbine blades versus just the inspection--or discs, sorry?
Christopher Calio:
Yes, so you’re absolutely right - that’s what fall-out rate means, those that we inspect and decide need to be removed and replaced. Our experience has been that’s been very, very low. If of course we had to replace the turbine disc, then we’d factor that into the turnaround time and that will of course potentially add some time to the process. But as of now, again David, our assumption--and we’re continuing to work through that and through the month of August here, but our assumption based on everything that we’ve seen thus far is that the fall-out rate will be very low, and that’s what’s embedded in our assumptions today.
Gregory Hayes:
David, keep in mind in order to do the inspection, as Chris said, we literally have to pull the high pressure turbine disc off of the engine and put it through this inspection protocol. Now, whether we put that disc back on or a brand-new one, it’s not a significant impact, and again with a very, very low expected fall-out ratio, I wouldn’t--of all the things I worry about, that would be low on the list. We have plenty of capacity for turbine disc out of Columbus, especially given what we expect to be a very small number of replacements. That is, I would say, the most manageable portion of this.
David Strauss:
Got it, thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question will come from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning everyone.
Neil Mitchill:
Morning Noah.
Noah Poponak:
On the powder metal, are you able to bound at this point whether you expect the free cash impact next year to be larger or smaller than this year, and then also following up on the Raytheon defense margins, can you just spend another minute on the fixed price development programs you’re citing - which ones are they, when do they move out of the development phase, and how do they play into the multi-year margin expansion you’re expecting?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, yes. First of all on the free cash flow, again Noah, I hate to keep saying this, but we really need a little bit more time to put a finer point on our estimates, and we will come back to you on that part as it relates to ’24 and beyond. But I think we’ve talked at length about what the considerations are there and how we’ll be thinking about that, and that there is a possibility that some of these shop visits are already planned and there will be effects that counterbalance some of this in the out years, so more to come on that front. On the defense margins, you’ll recall back in Paris, I talked about $40 million to $50 million of headwinds we expected from the RINS business, and that happened just as we expected as we closed out the quarter. It’s literally a few contracts - I’d say most of them are classified, so hard to get into the names. The duration, I’d say the most--you know, the period of time that we’re looking at, probably 18, 24 months before those programs are fully behind us. We’re in the test phase, we’re obviously learning through that phase, but I think we have a little bit longer to go here. I think we’ve got it calibrated in the second half of our year outlook, but all the right resources are on it and, like I said, absent that, we are seeing productivity turn in the rest of the business, so it really is a focused set of programs that we’re dealing with.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Gregory Hayes:
Okay, thanks to everybody for listening in. Just to put all this in perspective, I think you need to keep in mind, we have very strong franchises between Collins, Raytheon and Pratt & Whitney, and the $185 billion of backlog. I know this GTF issue, this quality issue is a bit of a surprise. We have been working it for the last, I would say, 10 days or so. We will know a lot more in the next six weeks, and as that information becomes available, we will of course be sharing it with investors. But again, keep in mind this is a small piece of what is a great franchise across RTX. Having said that, Jennifer and her team are obviously going to be available the next couple of days to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you all for listening, and take care. Bye bye.
Operator:
This now concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies SEC filings, including its forms 8 -K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Gregory Hayes :
All right. Thank you, Latif, and good morning, everyone. I trust everyone had a chance to see the press release. It was clearly a good start to the year for RTX, and demand remains strong for both our commercial aerospace and our defense businesses. And I think, importantly, we're seeing some stabilization in the supply chain. Before we get to the highlights for the quarter, let me just spend a couple of minutes on the macro environment. Starting on the commercial side. Domestic revenue passenger miles are now back to pre-pandemic levels, 2019 levels, as we exit March. This was led by a very strong rebound in China following their zero COVID policy reversal. On the international front, we have seen continued improvement in RPMs, reaching nearly 80% of 2019 levels. With strong consumer demand and record advanced bookings, we expect total global air traffic to fully recover to 2019 levels as we exit the year. On the defense side, we're very encouraged by the President's most recent fiscal year '24 budget request of $886 billion. That's up about 3%. And that's on top of last year's nearly 10% top line budget increase. The proposed budget includes broad-based support for many of our key programs, technologies and capabilities, including a request to fund multiyear munitions purchases for AMRAAM. It also prioritizes HACM, that's the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, as the future long-range hypersonic missile. And perhaps most importantly for us, the budget reflects the DoD's decision to move forward with the engine core upgrade for the F135 engine, which we believe is a win for both the war fighter and the taxpayer. This program will solidify Pratt & Whitney's position on the F-35 and will provide additional thrust, range and efficiency necessary to support the needs of the war fighter well into the next decade. Looking internationally, we're also seeing strong demand for defense capabilities as our allies prioritize additional defense spending. Poland recently announced plans to spend 4% of their GDP on defense this year. That's the highest level across all of the NATO countries. And we continue to support Ukraine's ongoing needs, including the Pentagon's accelerated deployment of the Patriot missile defense system, adding another RTX capability to the Ukraine mission. Clearly, the demand environment remains strong across our end markets. And with that as a backdrop, let's turn to Slide 2 for the Q1 highlights. Importantly, we exited the quarter with a record backlog of $180 billion. This included over $20 billion of new awards from some of our key franchises in the quarter. As an example, RMD received a $1.2 billion award for Patriot for Switzerland. That marks the 18th Patriot partner nation. RIS was awarded $1.9 billion in classified awards. We also delivered solid financial performance with strong year-over-year organic sales growth of 10% and adjusted EPS of $1.22. Regarding free cash flow, we started the year slowly due to some timings of higher working capital, which Neil will talk to you about in a bit. Importantly, though, we remain confident in our full year outlook of about $4.8 billion of free cash flow. As expected, sales growth was led by commercial aerospace, with aftermarket up close to 20% and OEM shipments up close to 17% year-over-year. Additionally, in the quarter, we achieved an incremental $50 million of gross merger cost synergies, and we are quickly approaching the $1.5 billion target, with more opportunities still ahead. On the capital allocation front, we repurchased more than $560 million of our shares in the quarter. And we remain on track for $3 billion of share repurchases for 2023. And as you saw yesterday, we increased our dividend over 7% from $0.55 to $0.59 a share, in line with our commitment to return at least $20 billion to shareowners in the four years following the merger. We've done all this while continuing to invest in R&D, additional capacity, automation and the digitization of our production facilities in order to support our growing backlog. As you can see, we're extremely well positioned for growth this year and well into the future. Every day, we are furthering our integration to unlock the scale and breadth of RTX, all while driving additional technology synergies and a focus on operational performance. With that, let me turn it over to Mr. Calio to talk about the progress we're making in regards to our business realignment. And I'll be back at the end for a wrap-up and Q&A. Chris?
Christopher Calio :
Well, thank you, Greg, and good morning, everybody. I'm on Slide 3. As you know, we announced back in January, our plan to realign our portfolio into three business units
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Chris. I'm on Slide 5. As Greg noted, sales of $17.2 billion were up a strong 10% organically versus the prior year. This growth was driven by both commercial aerospace and defense, despite some of the environmental challenges we continue to face. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.22 was up 6% year-over-year, with strong segment operating profit growth of 15%, partially offset by the expected lower pension income and a higher effective tax rate. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.97 per share and included $0.25 of acquisition accounting adjustments, restructuring and nonrecurring items. And finally, free cash flow was an outflow of $1.4 billion in the first quarter, which is historically our lightest quarter of the year due to the timing of incentive compensation payments and seasonality in our defense businesses. In addition to these typical dynamics, the timing of sales and cash collections as well as supply chain and capacity constraints drove higher working capital in the first quarter of this year. We expect to generate positive free cash flow beginning in the second quarter as commercial deliveries accelerate and performance as well as other funding milestones are achieved. And importantly, as Greg said, we remain confident in delivering about $4.8 billion in free cash flow for the full year. So with that, let's turn to Slide 6 and get into the segment results. Beginning with Collins. Sales were $5.6 billion in the quarter, up 16% on an adjusted basis and up 17% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets, resulting in higher flight hours and higher OE production rates. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 24% on an adjusted basis and 26% organically, driven by a 43% increase in provisioning and a 29% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 1% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 8%. Commercial OE sales were up 12% versus the prior year, driven by production ramps in narrow-body, business jets and widebody. And military sales were up 9% due to both higher material receipts and manufacturing throughput. Adjusted operating profit of $800 million was up $216 million from the prior year, with drop-through on higher volume and favorable mix, partially offset by higher production costs and higher SG&A expense. Looking ahead, on a full year basis, we continue to expect Collins' sales to grow low double digits and operating profit of between $750 million and $825 million increase versus 2022. Turning to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7. Sales of $5.2 billion were up 15% on an adjusted basis and 16% on an organic basis, with sales growing across all segments. Commercial OE sales were up 27% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries within both Pratt's large commercial engine and Canada businesses. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 14% in the quarter, primarily driven by increased volume and favorable mix. And in the military business, sales were up 13%, driven by the F135 production contract award in the second quarter of last year and higher F135 sustainment volume. Adjusted operating profit of $434 million was up $126 million from the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, favorable contract matter and higher military sales, which was partially offset by conversion on higher commercial OE volume. Turning to Pratt's full year outlook. We continue to expect sales to grow low to mid-teens and operating profit growth of $200 million to $275 million versus 2022. Shifting to RI&S on Slide 8. Sales of $3.6 billion were in line with our expectations and flat versus prior year, both on an adjusted and organic basis. This was driven by lower command, control and communications programs, which was mostly offset by higher revenue from Cyber and Services programs. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $330 million was down $48 million versus prior year, driven primarily by lower net program efficiencies spread across several programs. RIS began the year with strong orders in the quarter of $4.3 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.34 and a backlog of over $17 billion. This brings RIS' rolling four-quarter book-to-bill to 1.09. In addition to the significant bookings Greg mentioned earlier, RIS also received a $650 million award for the next-generation jammer and a $275 million Space Development Agency award for missile tracking satellite constellation. Looking ahead, we continue to expect RI&S' full year sales to be flat with operating profit growth of $75 million to $125 million versus 2022. Turning now to Slide 9. RMD sales were $3.7 billion, up 4% on an adjusted basis and up 5% organically, primarily driven by higher sales in the Advanced Technology and Air Power programs. Adjusted operating profit of $335 million was down $52 million versus the prior year, driven by the lower -- by lower net program efficiencies and higher development program mix, partially offset by higher volume. Lower net program efficiencies included the unfavorable impact of a significant option exercise in the quarter, which had about a 100 basis point impact on the margin. Like RI&S, RMD's bookings were also very strong to start the year with $5.2 billion of bookings in the quarter, including an over $600 million SPY-6 award. This resulted in a record backlog of $35 billion and a book-to-bill of 1.43 in both the quarter as well as on a rolling four-quarter basis. And for the full year, we continue to expect RMD sales to grow low to mid-single digits with operating profit growth of between $175 million and $225 million versus 2022. With that, I'll turn it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Gregory Hayes :
Okay. Thank you, Neil. I'm on Slide 10 here. Just a couple of thoughts before we open it up for Q&A. I think first and foremost, given the strength of our backlog and the continued end market demand, we, as a team, remain extremely confident we can deliver our '23 guidance and our 2025 commitments. Our success, of course, begins with ensuring that we're meeting our customers' most critical needs. We're keeping a watchful eye on external factors. And I would tell you that Chris and the entire senior leadership team remain laser-focused on mitigating supply chain constraints and driving productivity and efficiency improvements across all of the businesses. More importantly, we're continuing to invest in innovative solutions and differentiated technology that will continue to drive long-term growth. Last thought is, earlier this month marked the third anniversary of the merger. We've been able to accomplish a lot so far even with this challenging environment, and we know there's a lot more progress we can make with the ongoing business realignment, which will set up RTX for success for decades to come. We look forward to sharing more of this information on our transformational efforts and our long-range outlook during our Investor Day at the Paris Air Show on June 19. With that, let me open up the call for Q&A. Latif?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton :
Hey, Greg or maybe Chris, I don't know which. But on RMD, obviously, this has been one where you're sort of trying to get to the bottom of the issues. And it sounded like it was a contract option exercise. It was 100 basis points. But even with that, you obviously have an implied 12.5% margin for the rest of the year in the guidance. So I'm just curious, what's driving that? How profitable is the backlog growth you've now built up? I think that's one of the questions that everybody has. And I know after realignment, RMD won't exist, but it will still be part of the business, obviously.
Christopher Calio :
Hey, Myles, this is Chris. Thanks for the question. Look, agree, we'd like to be seeing the margins improving at a bit of a faster rate. But there are some real positives in this business when you step back. Most of it will be the backlog. If you think about the book-to-bill over the last 12 months, it's a 1.43, which is really phenomenal, with some key wins in some potential franchise areas. As Neil noted in his remarks, we did have a contract option exercise in the first quarter. It's a good business. Let's make no mistake about that. But because of the accounting resulted in a bit of a negative impact, about 100 basis points. If you exclude that, it would put RMD at a bit over 10%, sort of in line with where we were in Q4. As you sort of look ahead to the RMD margin profile, the two principal drivers of that margin improvement are going to be material flow and flow in our factory. And of course, just absorption brought on by higher material receipts and of course, the labor that goes with it. So if you think about the factory flow, we had a 15% increase in Q4 in terms of material sheets. Another 5% here in Q1, and we're starting to see the results in the factory. You heard Greg talk prior about kit fill rates being in the 50s. The material flow that we've seen lately has brought the kit fill rate up into the low 70s. Our historical rate is in more the mid-80s. But as we continue to drive more material, you'll see more material flow in the factories, getting those kit fill rates up. And that's going to reduce the period of performance. And then again, the second one, again, is just math. With increasing material volume in labor, we're going to see better absorption of our fixed and indirect support costs. So more productivity there. So that's the margin sort of profile and story in RMD.
Myles Walton :
Okay. And is it particularly back-end loaded to the year out of management in the second half?
Neil Mitchill :
Myles, this is Neil. Yes, I expect that to accelerate as the year goes on. But I would point to the second half. As Chris said, with the kit fill rates in the 70s, as that grows into the 80s and then higher as the year progresses, you'll see the productivity, the confidence around our ability to shorten that period of performance improve. And that will show up in the EACs. The other thing I'll say is that option we had, again, as Chris said, good business. There may be another one. But again, this is really good business coming on the heels of increased customer demand. So we'll be sure to continue to talk about that. But I think the fundamentals of the backlog are strong. As we look at the margin embedded in that backlog, it's above 10%, and that gives us the confidence that, that margin expansion will come over time.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak :
Can we just spend a little bit more time on the Pratt margin? And I guess, what's happening with pricing in the aftermarket, maybe specifically in the engine? Just sounds like out there in the industry, given limited parts supply, limited MRO availability that pricing is maybe much better than normal. So curious what you're seeing on that front, especially things that are not on some version of a long-term agreement? And what does that mean for the Pratt margin going forward?
Gregory Hayes :
No, let me start. It's Greg. First of all, on the pricing side, with all of the inflation that we've seen over the last 18 months, I would say Pratt and Collins were both relatively aggressive last year in catalog price increases. And so I think we are seeing some of the benefits of that aftermarket part increase. But keep in mind, on GTF, for instance, more than 75% of all of those customers are on long-term support agreements. So you really aren't seeing the benefit of pricing there. Similarly, on the OEM contracts, again, we have some benefit of pricing, but it is very limited based upon the indices. Obviously, there's a dead band there. So we're not getting, I would say, a lot of pricing power today. It's not to say that we won't improve as time on wing, as Chris was talking about, improves, margins will improve, but pricing is not the driver of this. This is really demand-driven is what's driving top line here.
Neil Mitchill :
Maybe I'll just add about the margin profile of Pratt. Obviously, as we look at the rest of the year, Noah, we expect the engine deliveries to increase. Think about between 35% and 40% year-over-year. You saw 42% in the first quarter. That will obviously come with some negative engine margin headwind. I would put a number around $250 million in terms of rest of year NEM headwind that would then, coupled with the strong aftermarket that we're expecting to continue at Pratt, you'll see that margin sort of level out as the year goes on and those engine deliveries increase.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard of Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard :
Maybe just a follow-up actually on Noah's question with regard to Pratt. 14% aftermarket growth year-on-year in the quarter, given the aggressive price increase that Greg referred to, feels a bit low. And then secondly, on those GTF volumes, how do those compare versus Airbus' A320 ramp plan?
Neil Mitchill :
Okay. So let me start on the aftermarket. 14% Pratt & Whitney consolidated level aftermarket growth on top of 37% a year ago. So when I think about that, it's still very strong growth. We have seen shop business increased low double digits here in the first quarter, and we expect that to continue as the rest of the year continues, Rob. I would tell you that the legacy engines remain very strong, even the PW2000s and 4000s. On the V2500, the shop visits continue. They are paced by some of the structural casting issues that we've talked about. So I think as we've seen improvement there, and I'll let Chris talk about that in a minute, we do expect to see accelerated growth in terms of the Pratt & Whitney aftermarket on a full year basis. We still think Pratt's aftermarket will be up 20% to 25% year-over-year. So nothing concerning in the first quarter results, as you know, incredible demand as we look at the rest of the year for the flying fleets of the Pratt engines.
Christopher Calio :
Hey, Rob, this is Chris. Maybe just a comment on the OE deliveries. Greg mentioned stabilization in the supply chain. I would say on structural castings, we continue to see some improvement, and that's obviously critical for Pratt. If you think about the key constrained castings at Pratt, they are up about 30% sequentially this quarter. Now that's not to the level of flow that we need. We continue to see some manpower sort of labor challenges in that supply chain, and we're taking some actions to try to address that, whether it be offload, whether it be helping to improve yields in the manufacturing process. But we are lockstep with Airbus on their demand for the year. And we are hand-to-mouth right now given some of the constraints. But again, lockstep with the demand, and that will continue to increase as we move into the back half of the year.
Neil Mitchill :
Chris, maybe just to add on to that a little bit. The key constrained structural castings, that 30% is a sequential improvement in the number of castings that we've been able to get in the first quarter. So continue to have the challenges, but good sign as we gain momentum starting the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of Wells Fargo.
Matthew Akers :
I wonder if you could touch a little bit more on working capital. I mean a little bit of a bigger impact than we've seen in Q1 prior year is kind of spread across contract assets receivable inventories, anything that kind of drove that this quarter?
Neil Mitchill :
Sure. Thanks, Matt. Certainly, working capital was a drag on the quarter. I would say about -- we typically see a breakeven-ish type cash flow. We were expecting probably a slight outflow. It's obviously a little bit worse than that. About $500 million of that I would characterize as an inventory build. The silver lining here is that with the easing of the supply chain constraints, we've seen an incredible amount of inventory come in. We're also looking to balance that and make adjustments in our MRP as we look at the rest of the year, but about I'd call $500 million of the excess there associated with the inventory build, we increased our inventory $700 million. So we plan to grow our inventory and sort of a good news situation, it grew a little bit further. I fully expect that to turn the other way as we go through the rest of the year. On the contract asset side, that really was in our defense businesses. Again, the seasonality of those businesses is that we invest in the products. We ship them, and then we make milestone collections as we meet performance milestones. I expect those performance milestones to be met as we go through the rest of the year. So again, slightly higher than we had planned. We did get those billings out in early April, and they've already been collected. So I'm not concerned about that. Then the last piece we saw in terms of the first quarter was a slight increase in our receivables, probably about a couple of hundred million dollars. And frankly, that's due to the timing of sales. They came a little bit later in March. We'll collect that here in the second quarter. So as we look at the rest of the year and I think about getting from the outflow of $1.4 billion, up to our objective of 4.8 or so, here's how I would characterize that walk. The majority of that is going to come from profit that we've yet to realize. So nearly $5.5 billion, $6 billion there. We expect working capital to be flat year-over-year. So we'll have an improvement of about $2.7 billion, about half of which will come from inventory. We've got some puts and takes, a few hundred million dollars net of taxes and pension and then, of course, a little under $2 billion of capital, CapEx left to go in the year. And if you do all that math, you get to about the $4.8 billion. If you look at the fourth quarter of last year, I think we generated about $2.2 billion of cash. So I do expect it to be back ended, but turning cash positive in the second quarter, pretty consistent with what we saw last year, which was in the $750 million range and that's after absorbing about $650 million of incremental cash taxes that we'll pay here in the second quarter because of the R&D impact. So we feel confident in the full year. Obviously, a lot to do, but it's nice to have the inventory given the strength of the demand that we're all seeing here in the business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu :
Neil, since you're so good with the numbers and you keep giving us detail, I wanted to ask another one on Pratt performance. What drove the strength in the quarter of 8.3% margins versus the 6% implied for '23? And sort of what drives the lower margins for the year? And how do we think about the aftermarket drop-through given some of the prior commentary on GTF aftermarket? And how do we think about the PwC and military mix as well?
Neil Mitchill :
Four questions. Let me seat back and remember them all. Here we go. So in the first quarter, as I think about the 8.3% margin for Pratt, there are really two things that I would point to. Clearly, we had the drop-through from the aftermarket growth. So you have that. We also had a favorable contract matter settled. That was about $50 million or $60 million. So that won't repeat, but it was good news. And we also had -- we had year-over-year headwind in negative engine margin of about $50 million. But obviously, I expect as we go through the rest of the year, as I said earlier, about another $250 million of headwind as those engine volumes step up. So I think that's the Pratt story. We clearly will see the continue to grow in the remainder of the year. We'll get good drop-through on that, and that should help to partially offset the negative engine margin headwind that will come with the higher engine deliveries. The other piece of that in terms of thinking about the GTF and time on wing, basically, what I can say is our estimates today contemplate everything that we know about the engine. We feel very comfortable with where we are with our contract accounting. And any challenges in terms of cost or additional resources we need to put into that area are already contemplated in the outlook that we have for Pratt and for RTX as a whole. So I don't see that as being a headwind against our expectations for the year. I feel like I missed one of those.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
It’s okay. I have too many. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line Peter Arment of Baird.
Peter Arment :
Question is for Greg or Chris, maybe just focusing on RMD and just $35 billion backlog. I mean you've had some big wins. Obviously, Switzerland was a big one. But maybe if you could just talk a little bit about obviously, customer engagement is very high or probably at its highest levels ever. Maybe you could just talk about kind of the backdrop, the ability to continue to grow backlog or some of the bigger booking opportunities that are still out there?
Gregory Hayes :
Yes. Peter, let me start, and then I'll turn it over to Chris. But look, we had a very, very strong bookings quarter at RMD. Obviously, the Patriot, $1.2 billion for Switzerland. So that's a war we've been working on for a number of years. It's the 18th country to be a Patriot operator. But we see continuing demand that even is still not in the backlog. We know -- for instance, so far, we've only seen about $2 billion of awards related to Ukraine munitions replenishment. We expect that we'll see more of that coming up later this year and into next year. We also know that as LTAMDS, which is the Patriot upgrade system, is certified later this year, that we'll start to see orders internationally for LTAMDS also start to pick up as well as the U.S. DoD. Also, I think, you're going to see very strong bookings on SPY-6. SPY-6 is the new radar system for the Navy. We've had the initial low rate production contract on that, but again, much more to come on SPY-6, not just this year but into the future. On top of that, of course, AMRAAM continues to be very, very solid. There's Tomahawk, which will eventually be replaced by the LRSO. The fact is the backlog at RMD is only going to grow, we think, over the next couple of years. I think, again, one of the issues that RMD has, if you will, is you're going to see lower margins on some of these new development contracts, which is depressing the margin this year and next. That will start to turn around as we get into 2025, but it's going to take some time, but that is going to grow. And the other piece of the puzzle we don't really talk a lot about is the other international customers. Right now, our international sales in RMD are only about 30%. That's below historical levels. That should also improve as we get into LTAMDS, the next generation of AMRAAM delivery. So lots of good news out there. And for us, it's just a question of getting it out the door at this point. As Chris mentioned, we still are constrained from a supply chain standpoint, although it's getting a hell of a lot better. We still have work to do, and we talked about structural castings at Pratt. For RMD, it's all about rocket motors. And that impacts TOW, that impacts Javelin, that impacts Stingers, that impacts SM-6, SM-3. So again, as we work through those supply chain issues on rocket motors that should also drive extraordinary growth in the top line over the next couple of years.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America.
Ronald Epstein :
A question that's come up a lot among investors is when you think about the GTF and its variance and all the long-term contracts that have been sold with it -- correct me if I'm wrong, it was about 80% of those engines have been sold with the long-term contracts?
Gregory Hayes :
Correct.
Ronald Epstein :
And you're having this time on wing issues. Like you mentioned the Sheila, it's not an issue this year. But as we go out over time, how can we get confidence that those contracts were actually priced right, particularly the ones that were put in place earlier in the program?
Gregory Hayes :
Ron, let me I'll turn it over to Chris. Obviously, Chris is intimately familiar with this having run the commercial engine business in Pratt. I would say the one bright spot is most of those contracts were eight to 10 years in length. If you think about it, they were -- this engine was introduced back in 2015. So as you think about the long-term outlook, I am very confident margins are going to improve because we'll have a chance to relook at some of those contracts. But obviously, there's a challenge today with margins because time on wing is not what we expected it to be. Reliability and durability are the two issues. And reliability is great. 99.98% dispatch reliability. Time on wing is the challenge. But again, I think as Chris explained, we've got some solutions to that, which we'll see over the next couple of years.
Christopher Calio :
Yes. And just to build on that, Ron, this is Chris. This is why that we are running as fast as we can to continue to insert upgrades into the fleet during shop visits. We've talked before about the sort of the block D upgrades, which are really aimed at combustor hot section, improving time on wing in those areas. That's only about we're only about 50% of the way through the fleet in terms of those upgrades. And so again, we've had some part constraints and shortages and labor in our MRO network, which has which has impacted our ability to output MRO to the levels that we and our customers want, which is why we're adding more capacity to that MRO network. You heard me talk about the new Japanese facility, delta, obviously, a top-tier provider joining the network helpful there as well. So adding capacity to networks where we continue to accelerate these upgrades and improve the time on wing. At the end of the day, that's what it's all about. In addition to the contract mix that Greg talked about, it's also about accelerating our repair development, making sure that we've got a full suite of repairs in our MRO networks so that we're not always having to replace parts. We can repair parts at a better cost and improve turn times.
Ronald Epstein :
And if I may, as a follow-on to this question, same thing. My understanding is the gear is just fine. It's the other stuff that's wearing out quicker. How did that happen? Because it was -- everybody was worried about the gear, not the other stuff.
Gregory Hayes :
I think to your point, Ron, the gear has proved to be extremely reliable. We have not seen a gear failure out there in any of the 3,000 engines or so that we've delivered. But again, we're operating in some very harsh environments. And I would tell you that we probably didn't spend enough time testing for those harsh environments, specifically places like India. And that's where we've seen the lower life on the combustor. We've seen some lower life the turbine blades just because of the harsh conditions there. So as we move forward to Chris' point, we have the advantage coming online. It's got a lot more testing. It's got all the learnings from the existing fleet. This should be significantly more durable out there in terms of time on wing. It's going to take us a couple of years before we can get all of those upgrades introduced.
Neil Mitchill :
To your point, Greg, and Ron, you're 100% right, the gear and the fuel burn performance have been spot on in meeting expectations. Keep in mind, this was a new architecture, and we've had some learnings along the way. The only thing I'll remind you, I kind of mentioned this in my remarks, we had a similar journey on the V2500. And it took us a while to get to the levels today that people are enjoying on the V2500. Big difference, of course, has been the ramp up on the GTF has been massive ramp versus when the V went into service. So there's a little bit more, I would say, time and buffer to help manage that fleet as it was entering into service. But the playbook is there on the V. We've got to follow it on the GTF.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.
David Strauss :
Greg, specifically on the MAX, I think you previously commented that the expectation around Collins and the OE growth rate there was for the MAX to be in the low 30s for you all for the full year. Is that still what you're thinking even with the new issues that have developed here? And then second part of the question, just on rocket motors. Your view of the potential Aerojet acquisition by LHX and how that potentially could improve things in terms of rocket motor availability?
Gregory Hayes :
Yes. In terms of 737 MAX, I think current production rate is about 31 a month. Boeing had talked about moving that up to 37 a month by the end of the year. I would tell you, Collins is right now, I think we're all set at the 31 a month. And it might get a little bit better during the course of the year. But I think, again, that wouldn't be an issue in terms of our ability to ramp production to meet that. But right now, again, I think Boeing has got some challenges. We'll hear what they have to say here in another day or so. But we're, I would say, in constant contact with both Boeing and Airbus on OEM rates both at Pratt and at Collins. So no surprises there to think of or to talk about. As far as rocket motors, obviously, the potential acquisition by L3Harris of Rocketdyne is something that we have been discussing. The -- there's always a concern, I think, when you have one of your key suppliers going through a merger or an acquisition is that they lose focus on delivering and quality. And we are, again, laser focused. We've got folks out at Aerojet Rocketdyne every single day. We'll see what happens. I know there's a second request right now with L3Harris as it relates to their potential acquisition. And we have been obviously in contact with everyone as it relates to that. So we'll have to see what happens. But I would tell you, in the current antitrust environment, no deal is certain until it is actually done. So we'll have to see how this plays out and make sure that, again, the Aerojet Rocketdyne continues to focus on delivery and not get distracted by this deal.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rob Spingarn of Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn :
Neil, just going back to Collins. And I think in 2019, about 40%, 45% of the aftermarket there was from widebodies. I wanted to see if you could update us on where that is now? And how it's trending relative to narrow bodies, maybe this year and next?
Neil Mitchill :
Thanks for the question, Rob. I think what I would say about the growth at Collins right now is the majority of it is still coming from the narrow-body. We have started to see wide-body begin to improve. I don't have the exact number in front of me on that mix today. But as we think about the wide-body environment, those volumes are coming up. I would say, particularly seeing that in the interiors business on the OE side, as they continue to take those production levels up. And as you said, today, I think Collins is more in the -- on the OE side, probably about 30% of their OE sales relate to widebody, with about 40% from narrowbody. And then on the aftermarket side -- I'm sorry -- let me just stop there. I think that's enough for those numbers right now.
Robert Spingarn :
Okay. If I could just ask for a follow -- just a follow-up to Ron's question on the GTF losses, on the -- on engine delivery. And I think you mentioned recently somewhere that that's about $1 million per engine. Yes. How much of that is learning curve versus need for new productivity versus volume? In other words, which of those three things will improve the most?
Neil Mitchill :
Volume. Clearly, volume, as we continue to ramp back up to levels that we saw pre-pandemic, are going to be the tailwind, if you will, on a per engine reduction in negative engine margin. As you'll recall, we were already producing in the high 50s rate as we kind of entered into 2020. And when you think about the headwind we saw here in the first quarter on 40% higher volume, we're getting good absorption as we continue to take up those engine volumes. I expect that to continue. We're always working productivity. We're working productivity to offset the growing costs that we're seeing, particularly on the casting side. So we're doing all of those things. But I would say what's going to drop to the bottom line is going to be driven by that higher volume and the absorption that comes from that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC.
Kenneth Herbert :
I wanted to stay on Collins' aerospace for a minute. The first quarter aftermarket numbers were continuing to be pretty strong. You're seeing better pricing. Is it fair to assume that there's upside to sort of the full year aftermarket expectations within Collins? Or how do we see the sort of the remainder of the year progressing with tough comps, but with still very strong fundamentals in demand?
Neil Mitchill :
Thanks for that question, Ken. Clearly, the first quarter was a good strong start. Collins has lot of operating profit growth in our year-over-year plan between 750 and 825 and certainly seeing a little over $200 million of that happen in the first quarter was encouraging. And I think when you look at the provisioning numbers that we saw from Collins, very strong, obviously. I think a lot of that was driven by these airlines getting ready to put their fleets up in the air and be prepared to continue to fly through the summer travel season. It's certainly a watch item today, I would say. Our aftermarket outlook for Collins is in the low teens plus range. So certainly, a positive indicator, but it's one quarter into the year. It's a little early to kind of take those numbers up. But certainly, if they continue at this level, there will be goodness. And we'll see that goodness drop to the bottom line. But certainly, a great start driven by all the right things. The China reopening certainly gave a boost in the first quarter for Collins. And as we see OE deliveries continue to at least stabilize and grow as the year goes on. And I think that too will add some tailwind there. But a little early to kind of give a bigger number at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.
Cai von Rumohr :
So two issues at Pratt. First, you mentioned NEM was 50 million in the first quarter. Deliveries were up 48, so that's a little more than 1 million a unit. And yet if we look at the back part of the year, it should be another 50 to 70, something like that. And so why does NEM go up to 250? That seems an acceleration in the level per unit. And secondly, your aftermarket in the first quarter, up 14%. If I take out price, you're probably flat to up 1%. And I recognize it's a tough year-over-year compare. Why was it so low? And is part of that the casting shortage and having to allocate parts to OE?
Neil Mitchill :
So let me take the first one. I think we can take it offline, Cai, and Jennifer can help you a little bit. But I think as we look at the volume uptick as we go through the rest of the year, you'll find that when you combine that with the mix of new and spare engines that our negative engine margin is stable, if not reducing a little bit. So I feel good about that. There's a number of different engine families that make that up. So we don't see any issues there in terms of cost headwinds or degradation on a per engine basis as the rest of the year goes. As you think about the aftermarket, a couple of thoughts there. I had mentioned that we were addressing and dealing with material flow and availability. Certainly, the castings are playing a part in that in terms of allocations amongst MRO and OE deliveries. But we did see price improvements in the Pratt & Whitney portfolio as we do every year, and the volume is also dropping through. The content on the shop business is also stepping up across almost all segments of Pratt & Whitney, large and the small engine business as well. So we're seeing the right momentum there. And I do expect that as we continue to see the casting improvements alleviate as the year goes on, you'll see that also drop through in the top and bottom line.
Gregory Hayes :
Yes. I mean, Cai, the key for Pratt in terms of the aftermarket really goes back to V2500. And we see very strong input. I think shop visits were up more than 10% here in the quarter. So the pricing is a part of it, to Neil's point, but really, it is the volume coming back into the shops as these engines are flying more.
Operator:
At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Greg Hayes for any closing remarks. Sir?
Gregory Hayes :
Well, thank you, everyone, for listening in today. As always, Jennifer and her team will be around to answer all of your questions over the next couple of days. Thanks again for listening and take care. We'll see you. Bye.
Operator:
This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustment and net non-recurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies' SEC filings, including its Form 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. [Operator Instructions] You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Latif, and good morning, everyone. I hope you've all had a chance to review our press release this morning. Before we get into the highlights, I'd first like to welcome Chris Calio to the call. As you know, Chris has been our Chief Operating Officer for the last year, has been responsible for our business units as well as our operations, engineering and digital functions. Effective March 1, Chris has been elected to the position of President and Chief Operating Officer of RTX. Chris has been instrumental over this past year in driving our focus on operational excellence and delivering for our customers in a very challenging environment. So welcome, Chris. Okay. Let's go to the webcast slide for Slide 2. We'll talk about some of the highlights for 2022. I don’t need to tell anybody that 2022 was an incredibly dynamic year. And I'm pleased to say that we were able to achieve, despite facing a number of significant challenges, including transitioning out of Russia, managing record levels of inflation as well as supply chain and labor constraints. With all that as a backdrop, we still delivered $67.1 billion in sales for the full year, which was up 6% organically and adjusted EPS of $4.78, which was up 12% year-over-year. We also returned almost $6 billion of capital to shareowners, which included $2.8 billion of share repurchases. And more importantly, even with the $1.6 billion headwind from the R&D tax legislation, we generated $4.9 billion in free cash flow, which exceeded our expectations. At the same time, we continue to position the business for sustained profitable growth. In 2022, we captured $86 billion in new bookings, resulting in backlog growth of 12%, a book-to-bill of 1.28 and a near record backlog at the end of the year of $175 billion. Additionally, we were granted over 2,600 patents last year. This places us in the top 10 of companies in the United States for the second consecutive year. While we invested $9 billion in R&D and CapEx, this allowed us to bring new technologies to our market and drive further automation and digitization through each phase of our product lifestyle from design, through development, through manufacturing and product sustainment. Our investment in recent awards supports our mission to create a safer and more connected world, which was especially true in 2022. Our products and technologies have been instrumental in helping the people of Ukraine defend itself. From the Stinger, Javelin and Excalibur to NASAMS and now Patriot air and missile defense system, we remain in lockstep with the U.S. government to ensure we can continue to support our allies. On the commercial side of the business, we saw continued advancements on our path towards leading the future of sustainable aviation with the start of development flight testing of the GTF Advantage engine, which, as you know, further enhances the GTF's position as the leader in fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions. Importantly, we also completed the first engine test run for our regional hybrid electric flight demonstrator. This system integrates a 1-megawatt electric motor, which was developed by Collins with a highly efficient Pratt & Whitney fuel burning engine, specifically adapted for hybrid electric operations. This new engine will reduce fuel burn and CO2 emissions by 30% compared to today's most advanced regional turboprop aircraft. These types of investments along with strong demand across both the commercial and defense end markets will position us for continued growth as we head into 2023. We're particularly proud that RTX outperformed among all companies in the Russell 1000 for local U.S. job creation in 2022. RTX leads the industry in employee giving and volunteering, which is a testament to the impact our workforce has in the communities where we work and where we live. Before I turn it over to Chris, I just want to spend a minute to talk about the status of our integration and the next steps as we evolve as a pure-play aerospace and defense company. As you know, in 2020, we brought together two great companies, UTC aerospace business and Raytheon. With combined strength, scale and capabilities that makes us uniquely equipped to innovate and deliver game-changing technologies and solutions for our customers. As we approach the third anniversary of this merger, we've accomplished many of our objectives, including exceeding our original synergy commitment, and we see even more opportunities ahead. So today, we're starting the next step in our integration and evolution. Our plan is to streamline our structure to a customer-centric organization with three focus segments
Chris Calio:
All right. Thank you, Greg. It's great to join today's call, and I'm looking forward to engaging more with everybody. I'm starting here on Slide 3. Over the past year, I've been focused with our team on driving operational performance and program execution as well as identifying ways to improve our cost position and to ensure alignment between our investments and our strategic priorities. As Greg noted, our merger integration is nearly complete, having realized gross cost synergies of $1.4 billion. And so we are now in the process of realigning RTX into three business units. Let me give you some additional color around our thinking on this. At its core, this move is about enabling us to better coordinate with our customers, aligning with their needs and collaborating more effectively across our businesses, all of which is feedback we've received from our customers. All of this will ultimately enhance performance, make us even more competitive and allow us to capture additional revenue synergies in areas such as connected battle space. For example, just this past year, we were awarded a phase of the JADC2 effort known as TITAN, where RIS and Collins are working together to deliver this cutting-edge solution to ensure our joint forces have one common operating picture of the battle space. Additionally, this realignment will allow us to better leverage our scale so we can optimize our footprint, improve resource allocation and reduce costs for both RTX and our customers. Now we don't have a number for you today in terms of cost savings as we are in the early stages of that analysis, but we do believe there are additional material opportunities to be realized. Commencing with this reorganization, Roy Azevedo, President of RIS business, informed us of his plan to retire. Roy will, however, stay on as an adviser over the next several months to help us with this important transformation. Shawn Mural, currently the CFO of RI&S, has been made acting President of RIS, effective February 1. While organizational changes like this are never easy, we have demonstrated our ability to successfully execute on these types of initiatives in the past. And many members of the team involved in this process have experience from our recent portfolio and merger transformations. The exact timing of this change isn’t final yet, the current plan is to make it effective during the second half of the year. Until then, we'll manage the business under our current structure. We'll provide updates on our progress over the coming months. Before I turn it over to Neil to discuss our results for the quarter and the outlook for the year, I want to turn to Slide 4 to share some of our critical assumptions for 2023 and the areas where we're focused to ensure we execute on our commitments. As Greg mentioned earlier, customer demand for our products and services continues to grow. In Commercial Aerospace, we expect global air traffic to fully recover to 2019 levels as we exit 2023 with continued strength in the U.S. and Europe. This is pretty consistent from what we're all hearing from the airlines. And like everyone else, we're keeping a close eye on China, which historically has represented about 14% of global air traffic. Our working assumption today is that China's lifting of COVID restrictions continues to be manageable and its traffic levels will remain robust. We also assume traffic in other parts of the world remain resilient. We are, therefore, expecting commercial aftermarket revenue growth across our aerospace businesses to approach 20% in 2023. Commercial production rates are also quickly accelerating. We expect commercial aircraft volumes will be up around 20% year-over-year. On the defense side, our backlog is expected to continue to grow given the heightened and increasingly complex threat environment. In the U.S., we continue to see strong bipartisan support as evidenced by the adoption of the Defense Authorization Bill and the Omnibus Appropriations Bill with a budget of $858 billion, which is up about 10% from 2022. In overseas, the EU is targeting a €70 billion increase in defense spending over the next three years and Japan will increase their defense budget by 26% this year. Given our current backlog and this continued strength in demand, we remain extremely focused on execution, and I see four key actions that will position us to be successful on this front. One, we continue to grow production capacity to deliver on this backlog as we move through 2023 and 2024. For example, we've made investments in key strategic locations like Asheville, North Carolina, for turbine airfoils, the Kinney, Texas for RF and EO/IR products and Bangalore, India to expand the Collins India manufacturing strategy. Second, we, of course, need a skilled workforce to execute our development and production programs. Labor availability remains a constraint. We've made some progress across RTX in Q4 through reduced attrition and other strategic retention and recruiting initiatives. Third, we need to continue restoring health within our supply chain. We've actively maintained a physical presence at close to 400 supplier sites. We continue to qualify additional suppliers on key programs. We secured sources of supply for critical commodities. While we are broadly beginning to see our supply chain improve, it is not yet at the levels we need, we are assuming a recovery as we move into the back half of the year. And lastly, we are taking a number of actions to deal with the elevated levels of inflation that everyone is experiencing. For perspective, we are expecting roughly $2 billion of labor and material inflation in 2023. And we are targeting to more than offset this headwind through higher pricing and aggressive cost reduction actions across all RTX. Some of these actions in the category are blocking and tackling, such as continual process improvement and some are more strategic in nature, such as driving productivity through increasing the amount of connected equipment and automated factory hours. There is no doubt, we've got a lot of work in front of us, but I think we all believe we've got the right actions identified, and more importantly, the right team in place to do it. So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to look at our financial results and outlook for 2023.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Chris. Let's turn to Slide 5. I'm pleased to see how we finished the year where we continue to see solid growth in organic sales, and adjusted earnings per share and robust free cash flow in the quarter. Fourth quarter sales of $18.1 billion grew 7% organically versus the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by our commercial aerospace businesses as the continued recovery in commercial air traffic more than offset the supply chain and labor challenges we saw during the year. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.27 was in line with our expectations and up 18%, led by the commercial aftermarket at Pratt & Collins, which more than offset the impact of lower productivity in our defense businesses. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.96 per share and included $0.31 of acquisition accounting adjustments, restructuring and nonrecurring items. It's worth noting that both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share had a tax benefit of about $0.06 associated with legal entity and operational reorganizations, which were completed during the quarter. And finally, we had free cash flow of $3.8 billion in the quarter, bringing our total cash generation for the year to $4.9 billion which exceeded our commitment as a result of stronger collections, particularly in international areas across the portfolio. With that, let's turn to Slide 6, and I'll get into the segment results. Starting with Collins. At Collins sales were $5.7 billion in the quarter, up 15% on an adjusted basis and up 16% organically, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 21%, driven by a 32% increase in provisioning and a 25% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 5% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 6%. Commercial OE sales were up 20% versus prior year, driven principally by the continued strength in the narrow-body. Military sales were up 5%, driven primarily by improved material receipts, higher volume and new program awards. Adjusted operating profit of $743 million was up $274 million from the prior year as drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and lower R&D expense was more than offset by higher SG&A expense. So shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7, sales of $5.7 billion were up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis, with commercial OE sales growth in large commercial engines in Pratt Canada as well as higher commercial aftermarket volume. Commercial OE sales were up 37%, driven by favorable volume and mix within Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 11% in the quarter with growth in both legacy large commercial and Pratt Canada shop visits. In the military business, sales were down 2%, driven by lower military legacy program aftermarket sales. Adjusted operating profit of $321 million was up $159 million from the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, which included a favorable contract adjustment that was partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D. Turning now to RI&S on Slide 8. Sales of $3.5 billion were down 8% versus prior year on an adjusted basis, driven by the divestiture of the Global Training and Services business in the fourth quarter of 2021. On an organic basis, sales were down 5% versus prior year, driven by command, control and communications, cyber training and services and sensing and effects. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $278 million was down $122 million versus prior year. Excluding the impact of divestitures, operating profit was down $96 million, driven primarily by unfavorable mix, lower net program efficiencies and lower volume. RIS had a $2.9 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $16 billion and on a full year basis, RIS' book-to-bill was 0.96. Turning now to Slide 9. R&D sales were $4.1 billion, up 6% on an adjusted basis and up 7% organically, primarily driven by higher volume in Naval Power programs including SPY-6 production, higher volume in Strategic Missile Defense, including Next Generation Interceptor development and higher volume and advanced technology programs. Adjusted operating profit of $418 million was $68 million lower than the prior year, driven by unfavorable program mix and lower net program efficiencies, partially offset by drop-through on higher volume. RMD's bookings in the quarter were $6 billion for a book-to-bill of 1.48. And for the full year, RMD's book-to-bill was 1.37, resulting in a record backlog of $34 billion. So with that, let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss the financial outlook for the year. At the RTX level, we expect full year 2023 sales of between $72 billion and $73 billion, which represents organic growth of 7% to 9% year-over-year. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.90 to $5.05, up 3% to 6% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $4.8 billion. I should note, we are not assuming the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes will be repealed in our outlook. And as a result, in 2023, we'll have a cash payment of about $1.4 billion related to the current law. While there are more details on the cash flow walk in the appendix, let me share a few of the moving pieces. First, we are expecting segment operating profit growth. Offsetting that will be increases in working capital, capital expenditures as well as a lower pension cost recovery. Additionally, we're expecting to buy back approximately $3 billion of RTX shares in 2023, of course, subject to market conditions. Now getting into the details around the earnings per share walk, starting at the segment level, we expect strong operating profit growth of about 20%, which results in about $0.77 of earnings per share growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. And as Chris noted earlier, this overcomes about $2 billion of material and labor inflation. And with respect to pension, although markets have improved since we spoke in October, pension will still be a substantial year-over-year headwind. Based on actual 2022 asset returns and where discount rates ended the year, that headwind will be about $0.22. Our tax rate in 2023 is expected to be approximately 18% versus the 14.4% we saw in 2022, which will result in a $0.22 headwind. This change is primarily driven by benefits recorded in 2022 that likely won't repeat in 2023. And to wrap things up, we see about $0.14 of net headwind year-over-year, primarily driven by higher interest and corporate expenses, and all of this brings us to our outlook range of $4.90 to $5.05 per share. So with that, let's go to Slide 11 for a little more detail on the segment outlooks. At Collins, we expect full year sales to be up low double digits, primarily driven by continuation of the commercial aero recovery. Military sales at Collins are expected to be up mid-single digits for the year as well. We expect Collins adjusted operating profit to grow between $750 million and $825 million versus last year, and this is primarily driven by drop-through on commercial aftermarket, higher OE production ramp and increased defense volumes. At Pratt & Whitney, we expect full year sales to be up low to mid-teens versus prior year, principally driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in legacy large commercial engines, GTF aftermarket and Pratt Canada shop visits. Military sales at Pratt are expected to be flat, driven by higher F135 sustainment volume, which will offset lower F135 material inputs. We expect Pratt's adjusted operating profit to grow between $200 million and $275 million versus last year, primarily on higher aftermarket volume, which is partially offset by a higher large commercial OE delivery impact. Turning to RI&S, we expect full year sales to be flat versus the prior year and adjusted operating profit to be up between $75 million and $125 million, driven by improved net program efficiencies. And in R&D, we expect sales to grow low-to-mid single digits versus 2022 as the effects of the supply chain constraints ease in the back half of the year and for adjusted operating profit to be up between $175 million and $225 million versus prior year, driven by improved net program efficiencies, which will be partially offset by continued mix headwinds. And finally, higher intercompany activity will increase sales eliminations by about 10% year-over-year. And it's also worth noting, we've included an outlook for some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendix. So with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, Neil, thanks very much. So we're going to close out on Slide 12 and take a quick look at our priorities. Obviously, there is no surprises here. As we head into 2023, I would tell you the future remains bright for RTX, especially with a $175 billion backlog and strong demand in all of our end markets. We also know the challenges that we saw in 2022 will continue, and we'll keep working to mitigate the big three that we continued to focus on
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research. Please go ahead, Robert.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Greg, just like to follow-up on your final comment there on your confidence in 2025, whether there’s confidence has been shaken anyway by this change in the R&D tax legislation but also the supply chain challenges because you basically have to double the cash flow between now and then to get to your target.
Greg Hayes:
Rob that is a great question, one that we have been working through over these last couple of months. We obviously thought going into the end of 2022 that the tax legislation, the R&D amortization would get eliminated. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. That cost us $1.6 billion last year. As Neil said, it will be another $1.4 billion. And as we go into the 2025 time frame, that drag will still be about $1 billion, about $800 million of that is actual net R&D deferral and there’s a couple of hundred million dollars of additional interest expense and financing our little loan to the government. So is all that being equal, we still see – and we had always talked about a $10 billion free cash flow in 2025. Realistically, I think that number is going to be $9 billion. Now most of that growth from, let’s call it, $5 billion this year to $9 billion is going to come from segment operating profit. We should grow between 2022 and 2025 by about $5 billion. And that just assumes an execution on the current demand that we have in backlog, right? That’s – there’s nothing else magic about that except the continued return of people flying and the defense budgets remaining very robust. So we see a path to the $9 billion. I don’t see a path to the $10 billion today because of the R&D. But it’s a long time, maybe we hope that people in Washington will understand that they’re making a very, very bad tactical decision here and not allowing us to deduct R&D, but it is the reality that we face today.
Robert Stallard:
Right. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Robert.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your question please, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi, good morning, guys, and thank you. Maybe a little bit more focus on 2023. You mentioned 400 suppliers in the supply chain. How are you expecting the supply chain to unravel across both the commercial aerospace and defense segments? And you mentioned $2 billion of inflation headwinds. Can you talk about the impact of pricing on a net basis and across the businesses, maybe where you’re seeing the most impact?
Chris Calio:
Hey Sheila, it’s Chris. I’ll start with this one and then invite Neil and Greg to chime in. So let’s talk about supply chain for a minute. Maybe start with the positive, which was – saw some stabilization as we exited the year last year. If you look at R&D, material receipts were up 30% Q3 to Q4. Supplier delinquencies were down. At Pratt, we saw some uptick in casting deliveries. So those are some of the green shoots that we saw at the end of the year. But I’ll tell you, it’s not where we need to be, especially for the back half of 2023. The kinds of things that we’re focused on, candidly are the things that we can control. We’ve got the people on site, as you mentioned, and they’re responding to engineering and quality issues, giving us better visibility of what’s going on. We’re leaving bottlenecks and also finding issues earlier than perhaps we were previously giving us more time to react. We qualified some additional suppliers and negotiated additional LTAs. I think we did about 400 agreements last year with about $1.8 billion in annual spend. So again, giving our suppliers better visibility into our demand and what we’re doing. And then candidly, we’re taking some actions in our own house to better enable supply chain performance, small things like reducing the time it takes to place a PO to perhaps more complex things like engineering changes to improve the yields on some of our complex parts and ensuring we’ve got sort of a stable configuration as programs move from development into production. So those are all the things that we’re focused on continue to drive health and supply chain. But you’re right, we’re going to need it to perform to hit these numbers we’ve got here in 2023 and beyond.
Greg Hayes:
So Sheila, the other question you had there was on inflation. And I think, again, we – the $2 billion of inflation is a real number we saw it last year. We were able to overcome it through cost reduction as well as some additional pricing. And again, we will see pricing benefits again in 2023, especially on the commercial aftermarket side. Keep in mind also on the defense side about 1/3 of our business is cost type, cost reimbursable and so some of that inflation gets passed automatically along to our customer at the Department of Defense. As I think about that $2 billion, right about $1.2 billion I think Chris said is product related and about $800 million of that is people cost. And that is a real number. We’ve got roughly $20 billion in compensation costs across RTX that’s about a 4% increase year-over-year for $800 million. It’s a big number. But again, we’ve got plans in place for cost reduction both in the supply chain and in the factories as well as in the back office. And some of this transformation activity that Chris mentioned with the realignment of the businesses will also present us an opportunity to get after some of that cost. So it’s real, but we’ve got plans and I think we have more than provided for that in the guidance that Neil covered.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you, both.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America. Your question please, Ronald.
Ronald Epstein:
Hey, yes. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Hey Ron, good morning.
Ronald Epstein:
Good question for you about this restructuring reorganization, I guess, in the defense business in Raytheon. I think we all understand that you’ll get cost synergies out of it. But if you look at RIS in the quarter with the sales down 5%, how does the reorganization boost sales synergies. I think that that’s the first question. And then the second question is, I mean it’s really – I mean, how do you boost that? And then the second question is, is there some restructuring that actually has to go on in that portfolio? Because are there some businesses in there that are just structurally lagging?
Chris Calio:
Hey Ron, it’s Chris. Maybe I’ll take a crack at the sales synergy. So again, as we kind of said upfront, this is about taking the organization to the next level, right? You got a tremendous defense backlog, something like $70 billion RIS R&D. And this is really about enhancing customer alignment and coordination. We’ve had customer feedback throughout the last couple of years about the need for us to figure out how to better integrate some of our solutions, providing mission solutions to the customers, coming in with a unified narrative and an investment story. All of these things, I think, will enable us to work better and frankly, collaborate better across businesses. In large organizations like ours, you won’t be surprised to hear that sometimes there’s some friction there, and we think this will help remove some of that friction and again, provide better solutions to the customer. So thus far, the customer feedback, those that we’ve spoken to sort of see that potential and it’s up to us to execute on it. As of the portfolio, I think, again, RIS has a very strong portfolio. Book-to-bill was 0.96 not necessarily where we wanted. We had some campaigns push out of the year, but feel really strong again about the portfolio, and we’re going to continue to invest in it.
Greg Hayes:
Ron, let me just jump in and add to that. As we look at this reorganization, this is not just about putting RIS and RMD together to recreate the old legacy Raytheon Company. We’re going to look to take the entire portfolio of RIS, Collins, RMD and move the pieces where they most appropriately align from a technology and a customer standpoint. So you may well see pieces, especially related to JADC2 moving into the Collins business. We’ll see how all of this evolves over the next several months. I would tell you by the time we get to the end of the first quarter, we should have a really good understanding of what the new organization is going to look like. We’ll share that with everybody at that point. It’s going to take us longer than that to actually do the rewiring that’s why we’re talking about kind of a mid-year. But I agree with Chris. I think the portfolio that we have across the legacy Raytheon and Collins business is really quite strong. And the book-to-bill we’ll be – we’ll get better at some of those legacy RI&S businesses, especially in the Space segment. I would also tell you that the performance in Q4 was not great, but it was really program – legacy programs from many years ago that we still have not completed. So there’s some work to do there. But I would tell you the portfolio is not broken or the business is not broken.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it. Right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Your question please, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning, everybody.
Neil Mitchill:
Hey Noah, how are you? Good morning.
Noah Poponak:
Good. Recognizing that there’s multiple top line inputs that are out of your control at the moment, which of the 2025 segment margin targets hold and which do not at this point? Because in the two aerospace segments, the 2024, 2025 incrementals required to get there are a lot better than 2023. And then obviously, on the defense side, it requires a pretty big step up. So help me with that math? And I guess, just what’s the latest medium-term outlook for each of the segment margins?
Neil Mitchill:
Yes. Noah, let me take a stab at that one for you because as you look out to 2025, clearly, we’ve had in 2022, some supply chain and labor impacts that have kind of caused us to come in a little lower than our initial expectations. However, when you think about that backlog that we’ve been talking about, it’s $175 billion at the company level, $69 billion, $70 billion within the defense. We have a lot to deliver ahead of us. And so I think there’s going to be some puts and takes as we look at the segments on an individual basis as you get out to 2025. But as I step back and look at the totality of RTX and where we projected to be and where we’re aiming to go and with that backlog, we feel confident that we can get there. We can get the sales growth, get the earnings growth and Greg already hit on the cash flow pieces there. So some things have changed since we’ve talked in 2021. We’re certainly dealing with a lot more inflation, but we’ve also got the situation in Ukraine that has given R&D some tailwinds. So when we get to June, we’ll be able to lay out that in more detail. It also be aligned with the format of our new operating segments at that time. But I think there’s going to be some puts and takes, but we’re all focused on driving margin improvements and making the right investments to drive that automation in the factory and digitization. I should add to Greg’s comments earlier about the free cash flow walk. We’ll probably see about $0.5 billion of capital headwind between 2022 and 2023. So making the right investments. I’m really focused on earnings growth and conversion to cash and so we’ll see where the margins land, but I do think we’re going to get that earnings growth.
Noah Poponak:
Is it your anticipation that you’ll have a few hundred basis points of defense segment margin expansion over the next few years? And is that all cost or is that mix? Or is it not dealing with supply chain? Or how do you do that?
Greg Hayes:
It’s – I would tell you, it is a combination of all of those things. It’s supply chain getting better, which allows us to see productivity in our factories. It’s also – as we move from these LRIP contracts, initial rates of production on LTAMDS and SPY-6 and others to full rate production to see an improvement in margin on the production side as well as the mix of DoD versus international sales. Today, we’re actually at a low point of about 30% at RMD of international versus DoD sales that actually transitions back towards a more historical level 40%, 45% as we do more exports, especially around LTAMDS and some of these new systems.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Your question please, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Hey, good morning, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Greg, I want to say in RMD. You’ve just up low to mid-single digits on an organic basis. Just in the backdrop, it seems like it should be potentially better than that. Obviously, wondering if you could just kind of parse out how much is being impacted by the supply chain. And if – just when we think about all the DoD potential replenishment activity, plus you’ve got strong demand from NATO allies. Just a lot of opportunities for the space, it feels like you should be having a more potentially sustained top line growth. Maybe just your thoughts on that over the coming next couple of years. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Peter, I think you’re spot on. I think as we look at 2023 and then 2024, there is more growth potential at RMD than there probably is any business outside of Collins just because, again, the backlog is so strong. I would tell you, given the challenges that we saw in supply chain last year and driving material in, I think we’ve taken a more conservative view of 2023 performance there. I think total material inputs at RMD last year were around $6 billion. This year, we’re looking at about $6.5 billion. But quite frankly, the demand is out there for more. So that $6.5 billion should also drive some productivity, $100 million to $150 million. Again, I think that’s actually light by historical standards, but we’re – I hate to say that we’re conservative again and again. But really we set these targets. So we think we can absolutely deliver. We’re not going to have to go back and relook at these in the middle of the year. But there is certainly the demand out there for higher top line and that would result in higher bottom line. But most of that growth, I think, will come in 2024 when we really see supply chain back to where we had seen it pre-pandemic. And that is the key for RMD. They’ve got the orders. We’ve got the capacity. We just have to bring – drive the material in and that $6.5 billion that we see next year is going to have to continue to grow significantly to meet the demand out there that we see.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Peter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research. Your question please, Myles.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Hey, good morning. And Greg, just a follow-up first. I think you just said RMD might have the fastest growth outside of Collins. And I just wanted to clarify, is Pratt still the faster growing of the two? Or is Collins now faster growing?
Greg Hayes:
From a bottom line perspective, it’s going to be Collins, right? I think, again, top line, you’re going to see – what is the number, Neil, for 2023 here for Pratt?
Neil Mitchill:
For 2023, they’ll be up low to mid-teens. So very substantial growth for 2023. And sort of as you look out over the next several years. These – all four businesses are in the same ZIP code of high single-digit type of sales growth on a CAGR basis.
Myles Walton:
Got it. And maybe a more detailed question on Pratt. If you can just give a little color on where GTF is in the aftermarket composition where legacy higher-margin aftermarket is in that composition? And how those two play out over the next several years? And also how the GTF aftermarket is trending versus your sort of assumptions of profitability on those long-term contracts?
Chris Calio:
Myles, this is Chris. Maybe just as a step back for a minute on GTF. Demand remains really, really strong. As you know, we continue to do the block upgrades to drive improved time on wing obviously, improve time on wing helps with their contract profitability. We continue to incorporate upgrades to sort of improve the customer experience. On the aftermarket side, in 2022 turned slightly positive. And so from this point, it’s about accelerating those margins. You’re going to see that through some better contract mix as we talked about back in Investor Day in 2021. You’re going to see that through increased time on wing through some of these upgrades. And so the GTF aftermarket profitability is something that is of high focus at frac given the growing installed base, get about 2,500 engines out there and a very large backlog. So GTF aftermarket is a huge driver.
Neil Mitchill:
And maybe I’ll just put a couple of financial numbers around that to help out a little bit. But at Pratt for 2023, we think the aftermarket there will be up between 20% and 25% from a sales perspective. So think about the legacy shop visits being about 15% to 20% up year-over-year. On the OE side, that would imply about a mid-teens sort of a sales growth there. So we see strong growth, obviously, in the commercial business. And I guess while I’m on Pratt, I’ll just throw out a couple of the Collins numbers just so everyone has them. In their aftermarket business, think about that as being up sort of low double digits to low teens, sequentially kind of growing in the low single-digit percentage kind of range. And on the OE side, up low to mid-teens year-over-year. So again, with all that OE growth that we see across the narrow and wide-body platforms, you’ll see that both at Pratt and Collins.
Myles Walton:
Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays. Your question please, David.
David Strauss:
Good morning, everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, David.
David Strauss:
Greg, I guess following up on that. Could you just comment where you are on, I guess, across mainly Collins, but also touching on Pratt, where you are relative to the manufacturer stated rates, I guess, in particular on the MAX in the low 30s, A320 in the mid to high 40s and 787 around two a month. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
David, it’s something we focus a lot on. Obviously, we are, I would tell you, at Collins and at Pratt in lockstep with Boeing and Airbus in terms of their production rates. Obviously, some of the challenges that we’ve talked about at Pratt on the supply chain with structural castings is limited, I would say, some of our ability to meet some of the demand out there. That’s starting to ease. And again, we are working very closely with Airbus on the A320 production rate. As far as 737, that’s really a Collins story. And we – the outlook that Neil talked about, that assumes those rates that you talked about around 31 aircraft or so a month on average. I think they were a little light on that in the fourth quarter, but we think we’ll get back to that. They still have roughly 200 aircraft that be delivered that are in inventory, too, from when the line was shut down, which, again, also is part of Collins’ upside for the year. As far as 787, we see that, as you said, I think it’s one a month going to two a month and perhaps up to three. Again, I think that’s – that will all depend upon Boeing’s ability to continue to get the aircraft out the door. But we are working with them on a daily, weekly basis to make sure that we can support them. But we don’t see anything in our supply chain today that would prevent us from delivering either at Boeing or Airbus to the rates that they need.
David Strauss:
Great. And Greg, could you just comment on the interiors business, how that’s doing? Is that – if you’re starting to see a pickup there from the widebody side? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. It’s – David, it’s one of those things, it is probably the slowest recovery of all of the Collins businesses to your point because it is primarily widebody. And as the airlines were conserving cash for these last couple of years, we saw sales down significantly. We don’t expect a recovery in the interiors business, literally over the next three years. So it gets better, but it’s still not back to what it was pre-pandemic. It’s – it will remain a challenge.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen. Your question please, Cai.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. Thank you so much. So cash flow – in the fourth quarter, you had a $900 million uptick in payables, a huge uptick in contract liabilities and yet inventory where you normally get a benefit in the fourth quarter were actually up a bit. Maybe comment on some of those trends and how that translates to a flat year in 2023.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Cai. Good morning. Let me start on 2022 and where we ended the year. You’re right, the inventory was up. I would say most of that was at Pratt and Collins as you think about the backlog, the growth rates we just talked about on the commercial aerospace side and the supply chain issues that we’re all working to overcome. We were pretty strategic in our thinking around making sure we're bringing the materials and so that we can deliver and meet the customer commitments. You pointed out the accounts payable growth there. So not all, but a large portion of that inventory growth was sort of offset by the payables to kind of go along with that. On the advances side or the contract side, really that was driven by some – a couple of large international advances that we received in December. That contributed to our overdrive of free cash flow, which was about $500 million relative to our expectations. That will be a drag on working capital as you get into 2023. And as I look at the 2023 free cash flow, we see a little bit of headwind on the working capital, in part because of some of the advances that we got at the end of 2022. And I'd say in part because we're going to continue to be pretty strategic about making sure that we bring in parts and materials where we need them and where there's constraints and bottlenecks in the supply chain value stream right now. So on balance, we're always targeting to take that inventory balance down, but we want to be smart and make sure we have the products so we can deliver it. We will be seeing improved velocity through our factories as we go through 2023. So I'd expect the turns to improve here. But all eyes on the inventory management for sure, and then managing through the collections as we get into 2023 at our international customer sites.
Cai von Rumohr:
Thank you very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Your question please, Kristine.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
Greg and Chris, hey, following up on the supply chain what issues did the same versus 2022 versus what issues are different, I mean considering the strengthening visibility on demand, I would have assumed that we've seen a lot more improvement by now. So what's the root of the problem? And can you provide more details on the actions you're taking to get this resolved by the second half of the year?
Chris Calio:
Hey Kristine its Chris. So I would say the constraints are those that we've talked about previously. I said that we saw some improvement on castings, but it's not where it needs to be, so casting is still there. Rocket Motors continues to be a pacing item at R&D. And microelectronics, while the lead times have stabilized, they haven't come down and back to 2019 historical levels. And so those are sort of the three main areas that I talked about. We've talked about in the past that continue to be a headwind as we're moving into 2023. In terms of the specific actions, I talked about a few of them earlier. But again, some of this is what I would call blocking and tackling in the factories, whether it be ours or our supply chain. And I mentioned that before in some cases, we'll try to make an engineering change to improve producibility and ultimately yield. In other places, we just need to be in with our customer answering quality questions and making sure we can help them relieve bottlenecks. On microelectronics, a lot of that was about really the supply base, understanding our demand and then working some interesting agreements, negotiated agreements on making sure that we had our priority place in line and we made sure that we had our right allocation. With what you're seeing on the consumer side in terms of microelectronics coming down, we expect to see our allocation get better in that area, but again, still not where it needs to be here in 2023. We are assuming a back half recovery. So certainly not all is lost, but it will be the man-to-man defense here to get to that point.
Kristine Liwag:
Thanks Chris. And Greg, maybe a follow-up; you mentioned on your commentary on commercial large structural casting. It sounded more constructive today than your commentary in previous quarters. I was wondering what changed in the supply chain that you're seeing to make you more confident? How much of that is the OEMs walking away from, like Airbus walking away from the 75 per month versus you're seeing that ease through investments they're making or maybe labor easing?
Greg Hayes:
Well, I think, Kristine, if you think about the structural casting issue, we're not out of the woods, as Chris said, but it has certainly gotten a lot better from where we were a year ago today. And we continue to work with the suppliers there, primarily around the requirement side, making sure that the specifications that we're flowing down are actually producible in the supply chain. So that's giving us this confidence. But as Chris said, it's going to be the end of 2023 before we see structural castings back to 2019 levels. Again, we've got confidence they have been bringing people on, they have been training people. We have folks out there helping them. But all of that would support the OE rates that we need to support for 2023. Anything you want to add there, Chris?
Chris Calio:
No. I would just support you said, Greg, that our supply chain is bringing in labor, they're starting to see more success on that front. But in some cases, like take casting, this is a pretty complex process. And there's a learning curve for folks that you bring in and take some time to come down that learning curve to get to a level of productivity that we need to see for the improvements here; but again, focused on that in the back half of 2023.
Kristine Liwag:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein. Please go ahead, Doug.
Doug Harned:
Thank you. Good morning. On Pratt, you're talking about 15% to 20% growth in the aftermarket and the legacy programs this year. One of the things that we've been concerned about has been capacity constraints just it's taking longer if they get a V2500 into a shop for an overhaul and longer to get it through. When you look at that upside you're forecasting, how are you thinking about the capacity issue labor availability? And is there potentially further upside from that if you can actually get – have more success there?
Greg Hayes:
Doug, let me start with that, and maybe Chris will add. So as we think about the outlook, you're right to say that we see the large commercial engine – legacy commercial engine shop visits up 15% to 20%. Think about the Vs being up around 20%, and if you think about the math there, we were a little over 700 or so as we exited 2022. So that puts us in the mid-800s, kind of a range expectation for 2023, which is a level we've been at before. So as it relates to capacity, we have that level of capacity for the legacy shop visits. And it really then comes back to the conversation we've been having here for the last hour about ensuring that the supply chain is there and ready to support that level of shop visit inductions, which again, we've been planning. These expectations are in line with the numbers that Chris put out there back in May of 2021. So again, the supply chain, I think expects this level of an uptick in our shops to as well. In terms of – is there upside as you think about retirements of this aircraft, for example, it was 21 aircraft in the last year got retired that V2500 powered. So I'm not going to get ahead of ourselves. But I think that when you look at the dynamics around OE deliveries today of new aircraft, we think the V2500 still has a lot of life left in it. About a third of that fleet has yet to see its first shop visit, and so I'm cautiously optimistic that we will see that fly for a longer period of time at these elevated levels. Chris, I don't know if there's anything else you want to add to that?
Chris Calio:
Doug, I would add that you're right, turn times have been elevated on V and other platforms. And so we don't see as many supply chain constraints there, perhaps as we do in other areas. I would say the labor is stabilizing. Again, you bring in people off the street to do MRO, there is a learning curve associated with that individual becoming a productive technician and maintenance personnel. But we believe we've got the plan in place there. In terms of upside, I mean, again, if you listen to lessors and others out there today, and Neil kind of referenced this, given the supply chain challenges we're having on perhaps new production, you're seeing airlines hold on to older assets longer, signing up for longer leases. So again, it kind of goes to the life of the V2500 maybe being some upside there.
Doug Harned:
And just really quick, what was the favorable contract adjustment, the size of that Pratt for the quarter?
Neil Mitchill:
From an operating profit, think about a few pennies.
Doug Harned:
Okay. All right. Great. Okay. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
Welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question will come from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Your question please, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks. Thanks for the final question. Guys, I wonder if we could dig in a little bit more on the GTF. And you talked, Chris, a little bit about the time on wing. What we've been reading lately from comments from some of the leasing companies and comments in the press is the time on wing on new generation engines has been falling short of expectations. And so a) kind of to what degree do you share that perception and kind of where does it need to get; b) what specifically in the engine do you need to kind of improve to get it there; and then the last part is, I think you mentioned the GTF aftermarket profits were positive for the first time. And just with a relatively young pool of engines and maybe some time on wing challenges, how do profits get to positive?
Chris Calio:
So I would say that I generally agree with the sentiment that you're hearing, time on wing, and we've been pretty open about this. And very open dialogue with our customers, a lot of time on wing – on newer platforms, not necessarily being where we wanted them to be when we launched the program. We have done a number of block upgrades. As I said, we've got a block upgrade going in now through MRO that increases time on wing. On average, about 20% just based on the geography that you're in. And we've got some other, I'd say, durability and reliability hardware and software fixes that we put in as well. So we want to – we obviously want to get to the contractual levels that we have promised, and we've got a plan to go do that with these upgrades, Seth. I will tell you, keep in mind, you've got the GTF advantage that's going to start cutting in 2024. As you know, that's the next generation of the GTF, more thrust, better fuel burn, start flight testing in Q4 with Airbus, and we remain on track there in – for 2024 EIS. That takes all of the lessons learned we've had on the, what I call base GTF program and some enhanced testing. And we think that that's the next generation that will get to the levels of performance and time on wing that our customers are anticipating. But even on the – what I'll call the existing fleet today, we've got upgrade plans to continue to push that time on wing higher and higher. Our customers are demanding it, and our contracts are dependent on it. So we're aligned there.
Seth Seifman:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Seth, and thank you, everyone, for listening today. As always, Jennifer and her team are going to be available today, tomorrow, the rest of the week to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you for listening, and take care, everyone.
Operator:
This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Olivia and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies’ SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. [Operator Instructions] With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Olivia, and good morning, everybody. As you can see in the press release this morning, RTX had another solid quarter of growth led by commercial aerospace and extremely strong demand for our products with over $22 billion of awards in the quarter. I think it's important to note our balanced aerospace and defense portfolio, along with operational resiliency, remain the key differentiators which enable us to deliver on our commitments despite some near-term macro challenges and uncertainties. Not sure what that noise is. I think it's also important to note we've overcome some significant headwinds in 2022 from transitioning out of Russia to record inflation and a strained supply chain. I think it's important, those are short-term issues and while we continue the day-to-day work to mitigate those challenges, we also continue to grow our $168 billion backlogs and invest in the future through over $9 billion of R&D, capital expenditures and customer-funded research and development. Those investments, coupled with strong demand for our systems across each of our businesses, positions us for significant growth runway as the near-term headwinds recede. Before we get to the results, let me just spend a few minutes discussing the trends we're seeing in some of our end markets. On the defense side, no surprises. The elevated threat environment has significantly influenced how the U.S. and our allies are thinking about their defense capabilities and readiness. And as a result, this has driven global defense budgets substantially higher, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Just as an example, in Europe, Switzerland recently signed a $6.25 billion contract to buy 36 F-35 jets, modernizing their fleet and driving demand, of course, for our F135 engine through the end of the decade. We're also seeing significant global demand for advanced air defense systems, especially in Eastern Europe, as the Russians and Ukraine conflict, unfortunately, continues. This includes 2 of our NASAMS system, which is the short -- surface-to-air missile system that will help protect the people of Ukraine. And we expect more orders beyond those 2 to follow shortly. The heightened threat environment continues to drive strong orders. During the quarter, we saw strong domestic and international demand for our products with a number of significant defense awards, which resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.22 and a backlog that's up about $2 billion sequentially. Of particular note, our Missiles & Defense business was awarded $1 billion to develop the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile or HACM for the U.S. Air Force. It's a first-of-its-kind missile that leverages air breathing scramjet propulsion technology and that can travel at hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 or greater. Additionally, R&D completed the systems requirement review for the hypersonic glide phase interceptor program prototype. This is designed to protect the United States from increasing hypersonic missile threats. Both of these accomplishments demonstrate that Raytheon Technologies is a leader in the race to develop and deploy operational hypersonic and importantly, counter-hypersonic systems, a key strategic priority for the Department of Defense. RMD also was awarded about $1 billion from the U.S. Air Force, Navy and international customers for advanced AMRAAM, which is the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile. These missiles have been upgraded with the most sophisticated technology needed to maintain the edge over adversaries of the U.S. and our international allies. At RIS, we saw an additional $1.6 billion in classified awards in the quarter. The team was also awarded $215 million from the FAA to upgrade their wide area augmentation system to enhance safer air travel in support of the national aerospace system. At Pratt & Whitney, the team recently delivered the 1,000th F135 engine and was awarded over $800 million through the quarter -- in the quarter to continue supporting the F135, which is the safest, most capable and best value military jet engine in operation. And we're working on the F135 engine core upgrade known as the Enhanced Engine Package or EEP. This will allow the F135 to provide even more thrust, range and electrification to the aircraft. The EEP offers the most cost-effective and lowest-risk solution to enable the F-35's Block 4 upgrade. At Collins, we received a $583 million IDIQ award for the MAPS Gen II program, which maintains the integrity of positioning and timing in a GPS contested or denied environment. And it's an important award to ensure mission success within a more connected battle space. As you can see, the defense pipeline remains robust, and we expect continued order strength in the future as we continue to win key awards to successfully demonstrate our technology leadership and innovation capabilities. Moving to the commercial side. Air traffic remains strong as third quarter global revenue passenger miles reached 75% of 2019 levels. In the U.S., travelers through TSA checkpoints reached 91% of 2019 levels with Labor Day domestic traffic exceeding 2019. And we continue to see steady improvement in long-haul international traffic with wide-body hours flown up nearly 40% year-over-year. The strong demand -- the strong commercial aerospace recovery was driving demand for our commercial products and services. And we continue to innovate to deliver value for our customers. For example, just a few weeks ago, Pratt began development flight testing of the GTF Advantage engine on the A320neo aircraft in Toulouse, France. The GTF Advantage reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by a total of 17% compared to the prior generation engines, extending the engine's lead as the most efficient power plant for the A320 family. Also during the quarter, Pratt completed the first flight test of the GTF-powered A321XLR or Extra Long Range, 2 significant milestones for the GTF family of engines. So even with some near-term challenges, we continue to invest in innovation for continued growth in air travel and to meet the strong defense demand. Okay. With that as a background, let's turn to Slide 2, some highlights of the quarter. In the quarter, we delivered another strong organic sales growth of 6%. Adjusted EPS was ahead of our expectations at $1.21, and free cash flow is also ahead of our expectations despite a $1.5 billion additional tax payment we made related to the RMD amortization. Sales growth was again led by strong commercial aftermarket sales that were up 24% over the prior year. However, we continue to see challenges related to supply chain and labor availability in each of our businesses. On the capital allocation front, we repurchased over $600 million of shares in the quarter, putting us at $2.4 billion year-to-date. And we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion for the year. Through the end of the third quarter, we've returned over $12 billion of capital to shareholders since the merger, and we're well on our way to -- our commitment to return at least $20 billion in the first 4 years following the merger. Before I hand it over to Neil, notwithstanding the strength in demand that we're seeing across our businesses, the industry-wide challenges we're facing remain the same. You've heard me talk about them before
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Greg. Before I get into the full year, let's look at our Q3 results on Slide 3. Sales of $17 billion grew 6% organically versus the prior year with organic growth at Collins, Pratt and RIS more than offsetting a decline in RMD. The ongoing recovery of commercial air travel and a strong summer travel season drove our aerospace performance while we continue to see challenges in the supply chain, as Greg mentioned. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.21 was down 4% year-over-year but ahead of our expectations on better commercial aero. Segment operating profit growth of 12% was more than offset by the absence of a prior year tax benefit and lower pension income. GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.94 per share, included $0.27 of acquisition accounting adjustments and restructuring. And free cash flow of $263 million was also ahead of our expectations and included the impact of the $1.5 billion cash payment that Greg just mentioned. On the cost reduction front, we achieved an incremental $105 million of gross merger cost synergies in the quarter, bringing our merger to date total to $1.3 billion of our $1.5 billion commitment in the 4 years following the merger. Before I hand it over to Jennifer, a few comments on our full year outlook. The commercial air recovery remains robust, and we continue to expect that global RPMs will recover to about 90% of 2019 levels as we exit this year. Domestic and short-haul international travel also remained strong, and we continue to see a steady recovery in long-haul international travel. However, as Greg discussed, while we're seeing some stabilization in certain areas of the supply chain and labor market, these constraints continue to put pressure on our businesses. As a result, we're reducing our full year RTX sales outlook to a new range of $67 billion to $67.3 billion, which translates to between 5% and 6% organic sales growth. This is down from our prior range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, despite the lower sales outlook, we're raising the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.10 to $4.70 to $4.80 per share from our prior range of $4.60 to $4.80. Continued aftermarket strength, favorable OE mix and cost containment actions across RTX are partially offsetting lower sales and lower productivity in our defense businesses. You'll also recall that we previously assumed the legislation requiring capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes would be repealed or deferred this year. Since that hasn't happened, we realized an EPS benefit of about $0.11 year-to-date and estimate that the full year impact is about $0.15 per share. And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $4 billion for the full year. In the fourth quarter, we're expecting lower tax payments in several large international receipts. And finally, we provided an updated outlook for the segments and some below-the-line items in the Webcast appendix. So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the third quarter segment results and updated outlook. Jennifer?
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $5.1 billion in the quarter, up 11% on an adjusted basis and up 13% organically driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 25% driven by a 44% increase in provisioning and a 31% increase in parts and repair, while modification and upgrades were up 3% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 4%. Commercial OE sales were up 16% versus prior year driven principally by the strength in narrowbody. Military sales were down 6% driven primarily by lower material receipts and decreased volume. Adjusted operating profit of $630 million was up $150 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE more than offset lower volume on military programs as well as higher SG&A and R&D expense. Looking ahead, we continue to see Collins’ full year sales up low double digits. And as a result of stronger commercial aftermarket, we're bringing up the low end of Collins’ adjusted operating profit to a new range of up $750 million to $825 million from the prior range of up $700 million to $825 million versus last year. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $5.4 billion were up 14% on an adjusted basis and up 15% organically with sales growth in large commercial engines in Pratt Canada more than offsetting lower military sales. Commercial OE sales were up 26% driven by favorable mix within Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada's businesses along with higher GTF and Pratt Canada volume. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 23% in the quarter with growth in both legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 14%. In the military business, sales were down 2% driven primarily by lower expected F135 production volume that was partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume. The adjusted operating profit of $318 million was up $129 million from the prior year. The drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and favorable military and commercial OE sales mix more than offset higher SG&A and R&D expense. Looking ahead, we continue to expect Pratt sales to be up low teens. And we're increasing Pratt's adjusted operating profit to a new range of up $650 million to $700 million from our prior range of up $550 million to $650 million versus 2021, reflecting the strength of the aerospace recovery. Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 3% versus prior year on an adjusted basis driven by the divestiture of the Global Training and Services business. On an organic basis, sales were up 2% versus prior year due to higher classified sales and sensing effects that were partially offset by lower expected sales in command, control and communications, including lower sales in tactical communications programs. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $371 million was down $20 million versus prior year. Excluding the impact of the divestiture, operating profit was up $8 million driven primarily by favorable net program efficiencies. RIS had $3.9 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.18 and a backlog of $17 billion. For the full year, we continue to expect RIS' book-to-bill to be greater than 1. Turning to RIS full year outlook. A result of ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impacts as well as anticipated cost reduction actions and award delays, we are reducing RIS sales to the low end of our prior outlook. And now expect RIS sales to be down mid-single digit from our prior outlook of down mid-single digit to down low single digits on a reported basis versus prior year. On an organic basis, we now expect RIS' sales to be down slightly versus our prior outlook of about flat. And as a result of lower sales outlook and program efficiencies, we are reducing RIS' adjusted operating profit to a new range of down $125 million to down $75 million from a prior range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year. Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales was $3.7 billion, down 6% on an adjusted basis and down 5% organically, primarily driven by continuing delays in material availability and lower volume in land, warfare and Air Defense and Naval Power programs. This was partially offset by higher volume on strategic missile defense programs, including Next-Generation Interceptor development. Adjusted operating profit of $116 million was $74 million lower than prior year driven by unfavorable program mix and lower volume, primarily in Land Warfare and Air Defense programs as well as lower net program efficiencies resulted from continued supply chain and labor constraints. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $5.4 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.5 and backlog of $32 billion. For the full year, we now expect RMD's book-to-bill to be at or better than 1.2. As a result of ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impacts and cost reduction actions, we now expect RMD sales to be down low single digits versus our prior outlook of up slightly versus 2021. And as a result of the lower sales outlook and lower program efficiencies, we are reducing RMD's adjusted operating profit to a new range of down $300 million to down $250 million from the prior range of down $50 million to flat versus 2021. With that, I'll turn it back to Neil.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Jennifer. A lot to cover there. I'm on Slide 8. While we aren't providing our '23 outlook today, let me tell you how I'm thinking about next year. Overall, we expect another year of organic sales and segment operating profit growth with solid free cash flow generation at RTX. On the positive side, we expect that commercial air traffic will continue to recover and the global demand for our defense products and technologies will remain strong. We expect to exit next year at or above 2019 levels for global air traffic. And the significant defense orders we have won should begin to convert to sales. We will continue to drive operational excellence, and we are focused on improving our cost competitiveness. We're using the core operating system to align goals and drive targeted improvements with technology. The collaboration across RTX has already yielded 180 approved projects with a growing pipeline of over 350 future projects, which are focused on smart factories, automation and machine upgrades that will apply best practices to further reduce our structural costs. We will leverage our scale, these additional cost reduction opportunities and pricing to help address the inflation pressures that we expect to remain elevated well into next year. And while we are working many actions across our businesses every day to mitigate the impacts of supply chain constraints and labor availability, as I said, we do expect these pressures will continue to persist into next year as well. Additionally, as we sit here today, we see pressure from increasing interest rates and market volatility and the anticipate a pension headwind next year that could be about $0.40 on a year-over-year basis due to current market conditions. That said, it's important to note that our U.S. plans remain well funded and have even seen an improvement in their funded status year-to-date. And of course, everyone is watching the geopolitical landscape, energy supply in Europe, the continuing resolution and the global tax environment. So with that, let me hand it back to Greg for some closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. So there's a lot going on, a lot of moving pieces. And I think the key takeaways that I hope people get from this is most importantly, our backlog is up $12 billion since the beginning of the year. And we're investing $9 billion this year to support the growth that's going to come over these next couple of years. The future remains absolutely bright for RTX. The 2025 commitments that we laid out a year ago may remain in sight. And we're not going to back off from any of those, be it top line, bottom line or cash. So Neil laid out 3 challenges that are out there, right, supply chain, right? It's a challenge. There's no doubt about it. We've got 13,000 suppliers. And of those 13,000, about 400 of them are a problem for us. But we've deployed teams to almost all of those suppliers to work with them on a daily basis, getting them raw material, giving them contract labor, giving them technical support, all of the things that you would expect us to be doing. On labor availability, it's a challenge. Everybody sees it, especially in the supply chain. And I think what's interesting for -- at RTX is we have hired 27,000 people in '22. That's about 3,000 a month since the beginning of the year. Our total headcount today is over 180,000. The challenge, though, is we would need about 10,000 more people. So a lot of work yet to do on labor. It's out there. It's a great place to work. And people come to RTX because of the mission. And so we have a, I think, a very good pipeline. We'll continue to hire at this rate. And again, the challenge will be in the supply chain. On inflation, we came into the year expecting about $1.5 billion of cost growth between compensation and then what we saw in the supply chain and energy prices. That $1.5 billion has turned out to be closer to $2 billion, so about $500 million of additional headwind that we didn't expect as we came into the year. You couple that with about $200 million of headwind from the cessation of activities in Russia back in February, and there's about $700 million of headwind that we came into the year that we had to overcome. The good news is we have found ways to save. We have cut costs across the business. We've got about 500 cost-reduction projects that we're currently working. And so despite that $700 million, we've been able to maintain guidance for the year just where we saw it back in January of this year. So it's been a tough year. It's going to be a tough year going forward. We know that. We recognize it. But the fact is we have the tools and the people to make it all happen. So I'll stop there, and we'll turn it back to the operator, and we'll take whatever questions you might have.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question coming from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Greg, maybe if you could just, at a high level, how you're thinking about -- I know you're not giving formal 2023 guidance, but just The Street is obviously expecting across-the-board growth. Would you kind of feel that commercial aerospace will continue to recover and obviously, defense, maybe you'll finally start to convert some of these wins and actually showing some top line growth? Just maybe -- just high level how you're thinking about '23.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. I think, Peter, you're exactly right. We expect strong growth on the commercial aerospace side to continue. RPMs will continue to recover back to the 2019 levels. And so we're going to see strong OE growth as Boeing and Airbus take up production rates. And we expect to see strong aftermarket growth as well, again, as airlines continue to add capacity and try and keep the planes they have flying. So commercial aero, I think it's all good for next year. On the defense side, we will see some growth. It won't be as robust as we would like. I would tell you, it goes back to those challenges that we talked about. Really, it's about labor availability and some of the supply chain challenges. But we should start to -- again, we saw stabilization here in the third quarter in the supply chain. We've gotten a little bit better in terms of bringing material in, but we've got a long way to go. So that will be the governor, I would say. It's not the backlog. It's simply the availability of material coming in to the shops.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes. Peter, the other points I would add from a sales perspective, everything Greg said, I agree with. And we do expect to see mid- to high single-digit sales growth in 2023. So good top line growth, as Greg mentioned. I do expect most of that to come from our commercial businesses. I think even more importantly, we'll see segment operating profit growth exceed the growth rate of sales. So we do expect margin expansion as well next year. And you heard me mention the pension headwind in my prepared remarks. We'll also have to normalize for a tax rate that will be a little bit higher as we come off of a year where we do expect R&D to be repealed into next year, at least that's our current planning assumption. So more to come on that. But just a few extra points on the 2023 outlook. We'll, of course, come back in January with a much better look at what the segments are going to look like.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Can you hear me?
Greg Hayes:
Yes.
Noah Poponak:
Obviously, what's happening with your defense top line is a little surprising, but it can largely be explained by industry-wide factors. I think the margins are maybe more surprising. And obviously, there's absorption from that top line impact, and we know there's inflation. But it's an industry where the margins really don't move around that quickly, and your peers aren't really seeing that much margin movement versus this kind of quarterly volatility we're seeing from you. So can you maybe just explain that a little further? And then when we look to next year, should we think about your defense segment margins being closer to the '22 level or closer to your longer-term targets?
Neil Mitchill:
I'll start with that one. Noah, I'm not going to comment on next year's margins. Right now, we're focused on making sure we get through the rest of this year. But a couple of thoughts on the margin profile. The first thing that's really dragging down the margins this year relative to our initial expectations are the lack of productivity. And that lack of productivity has principally been driven by the delay in material receipts, which is obviously jamming up the production and development cycles within the businesses, and it's most notable at RMD. We've also talked about a mix shift in the products. RMD has gone through a product upgrade really across many of our platforms here. So that has had a negative impact on the margins overall. And certainly, we'll come through that as we turn into more production rate-type contracts. One thing that I'd say was encouraging during the quarter is last quarter, we had net productivity that was actually an expense, whereas sequentially, we're seeing about $140 million of favorability in productivity. So productivity for RIS and RMD was positive albeit nowhere near the levels that we're used to, but we are starting to see some improvement there. We've been adversely affected to your point on absorption as a result of that slowdown and the throughput that's coming through in the rates, which is causing that productivity to be muted from what we're used to seeing. I do expect as the volume starts to fill up the factories when we deliver that $67 billion of defense backlog, we will start to see improvements in productivity as well. Greg, I don't know if there's anything else you wanted to add to that?
Greg Hayes:
No, I think you pretty well covered it. I mean, the other obvious issue is international sales, which tend to be more profitable on the defense side are down comparatively. And again, some of the newer contracts have much lower margins than what we had on some of the existing -- as we transition from Patriot to LTAMDS production, you're going to see a big mix shift there or margin degradation for a couple of years until we get through the low rate initial production contracts.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Neil, I want to ask about comms profitability. Guidance implies that margins inflect up 200 bps in Q4 versus about a 12% rate year-to-date on margins. How do you think about the bridge and some of the drivers there as we exit the year? And maybe if you could comment on price and mix actions as well.
Neil Mitchill:
I'm sorry, the last part, Sheila?
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Just price and mix as we head into 2023.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Yes. And so we've already seen substantial Collins margin expansion as we've gone through the first 9 months of the year. And I expect as the wide-body international traffic recovers, we will continue to see a broadening of the margins at Collins. I'm pretty pleased with the trajectory that they're on. They've been doing a great job controlling costs as well, and they'll do more of that here in the fourth quarter. As you look out into next year, we've talked about some of the pricing actions that we've already taken in our Pratt & Whitney business, Collins and our Pratt Canada business. We'll also introduce revised pricing as we usually do at the beginning of the year. So we do expect that to be considerably higher than what we've seen in the past, reflecting the inflation that we're dealing with across the business. So we're attacking both price and cost as we look at the business going forward. So a number of projects in the pipeline that all of the businesses and Collins, in particular, are looking at. And as I think I said a few -- a couple of months ago, many of the projects that we have looked at around footprint consolidation and automation and digitization of our factories are much more attractive with the inflationary pressures that we're seeing today. So those 350 projects that I alluded to, we're ready to move forward on those and make sure that we structurally change the cost profile of our business going forward.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
So should we assume it's a 35%, 40% incremental margin business going forward?
Neil Mitchill:
I think getting out of this year, you'll start to see muted incrementals because the compares get a little more challenging. But clearly, we're on our way back to the 20% margins that we committed to at our Investor Day back in 2021.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research Partners.
Robert Stallard:
Greg, on the defense side of things, particularly RMD, you're in this sort of interesting situation where defense -- sorry, demand is clearly very strong but supply continues to be constrained. How do you see this panning out from here? When will these 2 come into equilibrium? And are you seeing any help from your customers in getting this fixed?
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Look, I think we're all in this together. And as we sit here in Washington and we're going to be talking to the folks at DoD tomorrow, there is concern about the supply chain challenges as we are. And yeah, they're putting DFAS ratings on many things to try and move up in the queue with the supply chain. But the challenge, and again, it's not just defense. I mean, I go to the -- on Pratt structural castings we've been talking about it all year, still remain a challenge. And it's not necessarily a capacity issue. It's a labor availability. I mean, how do you get trained welders working efficiently. And it's -- that remains a challenge. As I think about this, though, we saw about a 5% incremental improvement in our build or kit efficiencies this quarter. That's -- we had hoped to be about 10 points higher than that. We -- by the end of the year, we hope to be at 80%. We're not going to get there. I think if we're lucky, we'll get to about a 70% kit fill rate by the end of the year, which is the reason why we had to take RMD sales guidance down. I do think as we're looking through this that by the end of next year, we should start to see some of this abate. Again, because the economy is slowing down, more people available in the supply chain to work. But some things like rocket motors, we literally do not see a recovery path there to -- on contract until sometime in the first half of 2024. So this is not a short-term fix. And I think we're fully prepared that next year is going to be kind of a hand to mouth on the supply chain. As I said in the opening comments, we have worked with like the chip manufacturers, the OE, the OEMs to get some assured supply, and that seems to be working. The offset of that, of course, is it's a lot of inventory sitting here. We've added about $1.1 billion of inventory for the year to make sure that we do have the things that we need to build these products. So long-winded answer, it's not over yet, and I think it's going to be most of 2023 before we really get out of the woods on the supply chain.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Maybe switching gears a little bit, and I'm sure everybody is going to focus on RMD. Greg, if you could maybe discuss a little bit when you think about aircraft’s propulsion technology, you guys have the geared platform. Your primary competitor is working on an unducted fan. What -- how many -- how much -- what legs does the gear have? I mean, where can we go to from here? How much of a threat is an unducted fan? And then if we go 1 step beyond that to hybrid propulsion, that sort of thing, where do you see all that happening?
Greg Hayes:
A long time from now. Let's be clear, right? We're just introducing the Advantage engine, the A320 or the 1100 GTF Advantage engine. That will go into service in 2024. That will have a very long life cycle, like 30 years on it. Over the next 20 years, I think what you're going to see, Ron, and you know this, there's going to be an evolution probably towards hybrid electric propulsion at least in regional jet and turboprop markets. We have yet to find a way to make the case for long-range propulsion with anything other than Jet A. And that's the challenge. I mean, we're talking -- we're working with hydrogen. We're working with ammonia. We're working with a number of different things to improve efficiency. SAF is an interesting option. It's not carbon-free really depending upon the feedstocks. So that's -- again, that will help in terms of the emissions mandate, but it's not the solution. So I think we're investing a lot of money today in these advanced technologies. And we've got a project, as you know, between Collins and Pratt to do a hybrid electric demonstrator on a regional turboprop. But again, I think those technologies are 15 or 20 years out. We're going to focus now on kind of incremental improvements in the gear. And the gear is not done, right? I mean, the gear, we've always said that it can scale up, it can scale down. And we've got a great family of engines today. And I think -- as we think about next-generation single aisle whenever that is, probably 2030, we're going to have, I would say, the next evolution of the gear. But it's still going to be jet engine as you see it today with Jet A. Maybe it's all SAF, but it's still the same turbomachinery that we're talking about today.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
I wanted to see if you could give some initial thoughts on free cash flow in 2023. It looks like 2022 free cash flow will grow about $1 billion. That's the R&D hit. So I guess, Neil, obviously, you're talking about probably close to $1 billion of EBIT growth. But I think you have a bit of a pension, pension CAS headwind. Not sure what you're expecting for working capital. So maybe some help with the moving pieces on '23 through cash flow.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, David. I'll keep this at a high level, but certainly back -- coming in January, I'll give you a little more details. But with the operating profit growth, we would expect that to convert to free cash flow. I expect a little bit of headwind on capital as that inches up just a tad as we finish off some of these large investments, particularly an upgrade of our facilities in Texas at the RIS business as well as the completion of the Asheville facility for Pratt. However, a couple of other moving pieces. Working capital, I expect we'll see inventory to continue to grow. We'll try to manage that through payables and other parts of our working capital. But certainly, we need the inventory with all the constraints that we faced in supply chain this year. We want to make sure we're prepared to deliver on the growing aftermarket and growing OE business that we'll see. Long story short, I do expect free cash flow to grow organically. We'll also -- we're anticipating a refund of the tax payments that we're making this year. Again, assuming that the -- there is ultimately a repeal of the R&D capitalization provision. So let me leave it at that for now. But certainly, in January, we'll provide a better walk.
David Strauss:
A quick follow-up on pension, the $0.40. Is that $0.40 incremental versus this year? I think you were already anticipating kind of a $0.10 incremental hit. Is that $0.40 incremental to that or just $0.40 incremental for this year?
Neil Mitchill:
$0.30 incremental to the $0.10 we had already forecasted. And that's really driven by asset returns being below our ROA as well as rising interest rates causing higher interest expense. So more to come. We obviously threw all those assumptions up at the end of the year, but that's where we see it as of today. I do not expect that to be a major cash issue for us. And if there are any future FAS funding requirements, those will be offset by higher CAS recoveries in the future. So not a cash issue, but a P&L issue right now.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
I wonder if you could talk a little bit about Pratt for a second? And strong results in the quarter, been running about $300 million of profit per quarter year-to-date. I think the guidance is basically for a step down to 2.50 or a little bit below that in the fourth quarter. Now I'm sure when I ask about that, you're going to talk about higher engine deliveries. But I mean, I think there was a price increase as well for spares. And so how do we think about that evolution of Pratt, why it comes down so much in the fourth quarter, as well as where it goes from here and how much progress Pratt can make in '23 toward the out-year margin target that you have?
Neil Mitchill:
So you hit the nail on the head. It's -- as you look sequentially from Q3 into Q4, most of the degradation, if you will, the step down in that profit is higher commercial engine shipments, which, as we've been talking about, have been kind of pushed to the back end of the year. So that's really the major driver of what you see in terms of the walk from Q3 to Q4 on op profit. As we look out a little further, I'm not going to get into specific numbers, but we certainly expect OE deliveries in the large engine business to step up next year aligned with our customer requirements. And I do expect we'll see some movement towards the margin goals that Pratt put out there 1.5 years ago. There's a long ways to go here, but a lot of that will be fueled by a growing aftermarket, the recovery on the V2500s. We've also seen considerable strength in the PW2000s and 4000s. Recall that about 40% of that fleet powers cargo aircraft. So continues to be really strong there. And of course, the GTF will turn to profit. And we will see -- on the aftermarket side, we will see the shop visits begin as we get through next year and into the middle of the decade. So Pratt is positioned to expand the margins. There's still a lot of work to do. Greg talked about some of the incremental cost reduction actions that they're taking. They're going through an exhaustive review of every element of the business in terms of driving out both SG&A as well as structural operational costs in the manufacturing facility. So I find it encouraging, but I'm not going to commit to some numbers today, but we'll get that out there again in January, and you'll see that in full transparency then.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Just if I could follow up real quickly, the military part of Pratt has been down this year. Can that stabilize or grow again in '23?
Neil Mitchill:
I think it can. Yes, it's been down as we planned for lower F135 deliveries. That's been partially offset by growing sustainment revenues, and we've talked about that aftermarket for the F135 engine will continue to grow in the future as well. So we should see that stabilize. Similarly, at Collins, military is down mid-single digits for the year. I do expect same phenomena to begin as we turn the page into 2023.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.
Myles Walton:
Neil, I think you mentioned fourth quarter cash would be driven by lower tax payments in several large international receipts. And I just wonder on the international receipt portion, are you awaiting government approvals? Is there a timing risk here? And is that -- are those international receipts tied to the fourth quarter, mid-13% targeted margin you're looking for at RMD?
Neil Mitchill:
So great question. The international cash receipts are not tied to the margin in the fourth quarter. However, every international advance is subject to some risk. And there's a couple of very large ones here. I believe that we have line of sight to get them within the year. But if it's not within the year, it's certainly just timing. But certainly a watch item for us, not subject to government approval. But certainly a watch item for us, and hence, the reason I called it out there in the script as we look at the rest of the year. But I do feel good about the rest of our actions to drive free cash flow. We had very, very strong cash flow, notwithstanding the $1.5 billion payment. Tax payments will be less, obviously, in the fourth quarter as we make the rest of the payment we're required to make to meet the new law for R&D.
Myles Walton:
Okay. And Greg, just a high level, the U.S. review of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, any expectation there in terms of impact on your business?
Greg Hayes:
Right now, we follow the lead of the DoD and State on sales to Saudi Arabia. We still continue to work with Saudi Arabia and especially on the defensive side. I think it's important, we've had a very long-term relationship with the Saudis. And again, the key for us is providing the Saudi's defensive capabilities. And primarily, that means GEM-T missiles for the Patriot antimissile anti-aircraft battery. So we have not seen any impact from some of the talk in Washington about suspending arm sales. Just to, again, put it in perspective, it's about 1.7% of our total sales go to Saudi Arabia. It's not a big number. But I think it's an important ally. And I believe that we'll get through this difficult time that we're seeing right now in terms of diplomatic relations because ultimately, they are a staunch ally in the Middle East and a key player in Middle Eastern stability.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Neil and Greg, you highlighted inflation as a continuing challenge as you look out to 2023. I mean, that said, right, you're also expecting margins to expand next year. Can you provide more color on the moving pieces of how much inflation you're able to pass through to customers, how much you can offset with lower cost and how we should think about that remaining exposure?
Neil Mitchill:
So Kristine, there's a lot of moving pieces here. And obviously, our crystal ball is not terribly clear as to where inflation is going. But I do think it's going to persist at elevated levels as we go into 2023, and that's what we're planning for. And so we, fortunately, have -- a good portion of our supply base is committed under long-term agreements. But as you know, those continue to roll over. And we're looking at long-term pricing solutions and working with our suppliers to beat back some of those price increase requests. On the top line, I talked about the pricing actions that we've begun to take that we take every year. But they are significantly larger than our historical pricing increases in the commercial aftermarket business. And on the defense side, we're able to pass a lot of that through to our government customer as we set up new contracts with them and update our forward pricing rate. So we're working through all of that. I'm not going to put a number on it, but Greg talked about the level of inflation we've seen this year, and I expect it to be even larger next year. So it's going to require even more projects. We've got all of those in process right now. The teams are working very aggressively to accelerate the savings from those projects. And many of them were started years ago, and they were starting to bear fruit in terms of the digitization that we're undertaking across the company, upgrades of our systems and improvement of information flow around the company. So a lot of actions, a lot of singles, some doubles. But it's going to take a lot of work here for us to mitigate a sustained level of 6%, 7%, 8% types of inflation rates.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Kristine, just to add to that. I think the biggest inflationary impact really comes in compensation. So we spend roughly $20 billion a year in compensation. And every year, for the last 10 years, we've targeted somewhere around 3% or 3.5% increases. We're obviously seeing more pressure on compensation, given what's going on in the marketplace today. But the fact is, this is not new. And we are always looking for productivity improvements, productivity improvements in the factories, productivity in the back-office functions and everything that we do. So it's a concerted effort. I'm not, again, terribly concerned about the impact on margins just because I know that we know how to take cost out of the business. Some of it we get to pass on, as Neil said, through our overhead rates to our government customers. And we're also, I think, being aggressive on pricing on the commercial side of the business. So we've got a lot of levers. Inflation, hopefully, it's -- I won't even use the word transitory because I think that's been proven a myth. But it will be here for a while. So we're going to continue to look for ways to drive cost out and to pass cost on. And I think that's just what we do every day.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question coming from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. So you indicated that you're going to do at least $2.5 billion in share repurchase for the year even though the cash flows impacted by Section 174. If 174 is pushed out, you clearly get a windfall to cash flow next -- how should we think about share repurchase, given that your longer-term outlook really looks pretty good. And if you do get 174 pushed out, you're going to have a lot of firepower.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Cai, obviously, the second 174 nonsense is a little disconcerting because we're hoping, again, we're going to get a tax law change here at the end of the year with tax extenders which, as you know, will give us a refund of the $1.5 billion that we've already paid sometime in the first quarter of next year -- I guess, April, actually. But the fact is, as we think about share buyback, we are firmly committed to the $20 billion of capital return. This year, we said $2.5 billion plus. I suspect next year that that number will look like a $3 billion plus number. And again, the timing of that will really depend upon when we see the cash if we do from this Section 174 repeal. But again, I think you can count on us to continue to be aggressive in share buyback along with the continue to increase the dividend each year.
Cai von Rumohr:
But how much of that share of $3 billion plus would you do if Section 174 is not repealed?
Greg Hayes:
We'd still do $3 billion. We have programmed this in for the next couple of years to hit that $20 billion target. Keep in mind, the Section 174 is a timing issue. And eventually, we do get the deductions back. Next year, we'll get to deduct 20% of what we deferred this year, but it is a timing. And by 2025, most of the impact of this has abated because of the ability to amortize most of this. So again, while it's important, it's not going to really change capital allocation in terms of what we have committed to.
Operator:
And our last question coming from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital.
KenHerbert:
I just wanted to see if you could provide a little bit more color on Pratt & Whitney. You have 14% sequentially in the aftermarket. Can you just talk about where that was from? How much was maybe volume versus price? And how should we think about where you are, specifically in the V2500 sort of shop visit recovery? Because I know that's, obviously, a big part of the story this year and next year. And how much growth did you see in the shop visits this year? And how do we think about that in the next year?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Ken. So a couple of thoughts. Most of what you're seeing at Pratt through the third quarter is really just volume. And we have talked about the shop visits going up about 20% on a full year basis. We saw about a 10% growth here in the third quarter. I think we've got a pretty good line of sight to the fourth quarter at this point. So I think the 20% up year-over-year still sticks. The other element of the aftermarket that Pratt is seeing is higher content per shop visit, which again was expected for us to see that as these aircraft are now flying at much greater and sustained levels than they were over the last couple of years. So good story on the aftermarket, but I don't think any of the pricing actions have yet to kind of flow through in the results reported to date.
Ken Herbert:
Great. And the pricing actions -- just real quick, I think as those flow through for 2023, if I understand properly, you're looking at a little more step-up in pricing than you realized in '22, correct?
Neil Mitchill:
That is true. Keep in mind, a number of our customers have contracts in place as well. So some of that increase is muted, but there's a number of them that do not. And you will see that drop through, and that will help to offset some of the headwinds that we're dealing with there as well.
Operator:
I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, and thank you all for listening in. Just a reminder, Jennifer and team will be available today to take on your questions. Also just a note, this is [Erin Somers'] last earnings call with us. She is moving on to be CFO of our International business for RMD. So congratulations to Erin, if you guys are talking to her later today. Thank you all for listening, and we'll see you soon. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies’ SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Latif and good morning everyone. I hope everyone had a chance to see our press release this morning. From that press release, I think one of the key takeaways is we had a really strong quarter for commercial aerospace and we continue to see very strong demand for our products and services, as evidenced by our defense book-to-bill in the quarter of 1.35, incredible number. We delivered these results in the midst of, I would say, a challenging period across our industry and most of industrial America. Inflation, supply chain and labor availability continue to be near-term constraints. We are working these things relentlessly by leveraging our scale and our portfolio to combat all of these different pressures. Before we get into the results, let me just spend a few minutes on the macro environment. On the defense side, the evolving threat environment, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, continues to drive global defense budgets higher. Most of our NATO allies have reaffirmed their commitment to spending at least 2% of GDP on national defense with many countries announcing even higher spending targets over the last several months. For example, Poland has requested accelerated delivery of Patriot missile systems batteries and both Germany and Finland have selected the F-35. As you know, the Department of Defense released its fiscal year ‘23 budget request earlier this year, with modernization spending growing over 4% and with modernization accounts, specifically RDT&E, expected to grow by nearly 10%. We are also encouraged by the markets that we’ve seen in Congress. The House Arm Services Committee has proposed a $37 billion increase to the administration’s request, that’s a 9% increase over fiscal ‘22, excluding the supplementals. On the Senate side, the Senate Arm Services Committee went even higher proposing a $45 billion mark, resulting in a DoD budget increase of 10% over fiscal ‘22, bringing the fiscal year ‘23 budget to over $815 billion. It’s a lot different than what we expected 2 years ago. We are encouraged by the support of our programs with the authorizing committees recommending significant increases in spend over the President’s budget request, including increases for Stingers, Javelins, next-generation jammers, Tomahawk cruise missiles, just to name a few. And as I have said, our key programs in technologies and space cyber, missiles, missile defense and non-kinetic effects are also well aligned with the U.S. and our allies’ defense priorities. We ended the quarter with a defense backlog of $65 billion, that’s up about $2 billion since the beginning of the year, and we expect it to grow even further in the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, we also saw a number of significant awards, including $4 billion to deliver F135 engines for lots 15 and 16, which will power all variants of the F-35 fighter. The total contract value opportunity is about $8 billion for F135 engines across lots 15 through 17. In addition, we received a $408 million contract for sustainment of the F-35 fleet – F135 fleet rather. The F135 engine continues to be the most advanced, and I would say, safest fighter engine ever produced and possesses unrivaled operational capability and mission effectiveness. As the global threats evolve, the F135 can be upgraded to increase its thrust, range and power thermal management to support the needs of the war fighter well into the next decade. We also received a $648 million award to deliver SM-3 missiles to the Missile Defense Agency, a $662 million awarded R&D to replenish 1,300 Stinger missiles as well as awards to replenish Javelin missiles. RIS also had a $1.2 billion bookings of classified programs. During the quarter, RMD was also down selected by the MDA to continue developing our first-of-its-kind counter hypersonic missile, the Glide Phase Interceptor. In a few weeks – just a few weeks ago, RMD along with our industry partner, Northrop Grumman, successfully completed the second flight test of the scramjet-powered Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, or HAWC, for DARPA and the U.S. Air Force. The flight test applied the data and lessons learned from the first flight test last September to demonstrate how rapidly we have matured affordable scramjet technology. At the same time, commercial air traffic demand continues to gain momentum with a strong start to the summer travel season. Globally, Q2 revenue passenger miles reached nearly 70% of the pre-pandemic levels. In the U.S., travelers through TSA checkpoints were up 30% year-over-year in the second quarter or nearly 90% of 2019 levels. And with travel restrictions easing around the world, we expect growing demand for international travel in the second half of the year, with international revenue passenger miles growing from over 60% of 2019 levels at the end of Q2 to about 75% to 80% of 2019 levels by the end of the year. That being said, we all know that global supply chain isn’t where it needs to be and we are aggressively managing these issues everyday. Microelectronics, rocket motors, structural castings, all continue to pace manufacturing lines. Today, we have people embedded about 330 of our suppliers to help improve performance. And we are also qualifying second, in some cases, third sources for critical parts as necessary. Inflation also continues to be at elevated levels, no surprise there. However, on the commercial side, we have long-term agreements in place that cover about 80% of our spend and cover multiple years, which provides an inflation buffer at least in the near-term. On the defense side, we can price inflation into annual production contracts and flow through our rate structure. Additionally, we are driving further automation, standardization and process improvement projects throughout the company to mitigate inflation headwinds. And lastly, and perhaps just most importantly, the availability of skilled labor is a real challenge across multiple industries right now and we are seeing it both at our suppliers and within our own shops. It takes time to hire and train new employees. It doesn’t just happen overnight, especially in certain areas such as much of our classified work. Despite these near-term challenges, what differentiates us is our balanced A&D portfolio and our world class technologies that gives us the ability to deliver on our commitments. Okay. I was going to just take a quick look at Q2. And I am on Slide 2, for those of you following along. We delivered another solid quarter, with sales growing 4% organically. Adjusted EPS was a little bit ahead of our expectations at $1.16 and that’s up 13% versus the prior year and free cash flow was essentially in line with our expectations. Growth in the quarter was led by strong commercial aftermarket sales that were up over 26% from the prior year. This strength was partially offset by continued supply chain and labor constraints that principally impacted the defense businesses as well as some delays in expected contract awards. Notwithstanding these challenges, we continue to see full year sales in the range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. And adjusted EPS, we continue to see that in the $4.60 to $4.80 range. However, there are some changes within the segments as strength in the commercial aero will help to offset impacts in our defense businesses that Neil and Jennifer will discuss in just a little bit later in the call. As far as our cash flow outlook, we continue to expect about $6 billion of free cash flow for the year. That’s of course assuming that the R&D tax legislation is repealed. Finally, we repurchased over $1 billion of RTX shares in the quarter, putting us at about $1.8 billion year-to-date and we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion for the year. Through the end of the second quarter, we have already returned nearly $11 billion of capital to shareowners since the merger in April of 2020 and we are more than halfway to our commitment to return at least $20 billion in the first 4 years following the merger. With that, let me turn it over to Neil and I’ll be back at the end for a wrap up and Q&A. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Greg. Before I talk about the full year, let’s look at the second quarter results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, sales of $16.3 billion grew 4% on an organic basis versus the prior year. Our performance in the quarter was driven by the continued recovery of air travel due to the pent-up demand that was partially offset by continued supply chain constraints that, as Greg said, principally impacted our defense businesses. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 was up 13% year-over-year and with ahead of our expectations primarily driven by strength in commercial aftermarket at Collins and Pratt and some favorable corporate items, including lower tax expense, which more than offset the impact of lower defense volume and productivity. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.88 per share and included $0.28 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or non-recurring items. And finally, free cash flow of $807 million was generally in line with our expectations for the quarter. So, let me give you some perspective on how we are thinking about the environment as we look ahead to the second half of the year. Let’s turn to Slide 4. I will start with some positives. The recovery in commercial air traffic remains as strong – very strong as airlines entered the summer travel season with leisure travel bookings well above 2019 levels and the active fleet is at its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic. And as you saw our commercial aftermarket sales continue to grow generally in line with our expectations for the quarter. Geographically, U.S. domestic demand has remained strong, while China domestic travel has lagged our expectations so far this year. That said, domestic air traffic in China began to rebound as lockdowns ease throughout the second quarter. On the international front, short-haul international travel or intra-region travel has been quite strong, fueled by a stronger-than-expected European recovery so far this year. And long-haul international travel or trans-regional travel has shown slow, but steady sequential growth. And while this is encouraging, we need to see this segment of the market accelerate in the second half of the year. On the defense side, as Greg mentioned, we are optimistic about the fiscal ‘23 budget request and our continued alignment with the priorities of the United States and our allies. And on the cost reduction front, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence and our structural cost reduction projects to deliver further margin expansion. In the second quarter, we achieved about $80 million of incremental cost synergies, keeping us on track to achieve $335 million this year and well on our way to $1.5 billion of total gross cost synergies since the merger. At the same time, we continue to monitor the broader geopolitical landscape as well as the U.S. and global tax environment. And finally, on the challenges side, we continue to see global supply chain and inflationary pressure as well as labor availability constraints. During the second quarter, we saw slower-than-expected recovery in material receipts and the resulting impacts to our shop productivity along with increasing inflationary pressures in labor, freight and other indirect cost areas. And while we remain focused on aggressive mitigation actions, we don’t expect these pressures to ease until next year. So moving on to our outlook on Slide 5, we continue to expect our full year sales to be in the range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, due to continued supply chain and labor constraints, we now expect lower sales and operating profit at both RIS and RMD for the full year. Those sales impacts are expected to be largely offset by the stronger commercial aerospace recovery we are seeing at Collins and Pratt. From an earnings perspective, we are holding our adjusted EPS range of $4.60 to $4.80 per share, but expect to be more towards the midpoint of the range as we don’t expect some of the headwinds to fully recover in the year. I should also point out that we continue to work mitigations to offset the impact of ceasing business activities with Russia and minimizing any impact to our customers. I will provide more color on the moving pieces between the businesses in a moment. And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion for the year. It’s important to mention that our cash flow outlook continues to assume that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which, as I have said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion for the year. If the legislation isn’t deferred by September 15, we will have to make an incremental cash tax payment of about $1.5 billion here in the third quarter. However, this payment is a timing issue only as we will receive a refund in 2023 for the overpayment if the legislation is ultimately deferred by year end as we continue to expect. So with that, let’s move to Slide 6 for some color on the segment outlooks. At Collins, we continue to expect full year sales to be up low double-digits versus prior year, where we now see a little stronger commercial aftermarket recovery that’s partially offset by supply chain-induced pressures on military sales. As a result of better sales mix and spending containment measures, we are increasing Collins adjusted operating profit from up $650 million to $800 million to a new range of up $700 million to $825 million versus last year. Turning to Pratt & Whitney, we are increasing Pratt & Whitney sales range from up high single to low double-digits to a new range of up low-teens versus prior year and that’s driven by stronger commercial aftermarket and better commercial OE mix. With respect to operating profit at Pratt, we are increasing Pratt’s adjusted operating profit from a range of up $500 million to $600 million to a new range of up $550 million to $650 million versus last year. Turning to RIS, due to the pressures we have discussed along with delays in awards, we are reducing RIS’ reported sales outlook from down slightly to a new range of down mid single-digit to down low single-digit versus prior year. And organically, we are reducing RIS’ outlook from up low single-digit and now see RIS’ organic sales roughly flat versus prior year. And as a result of lower sales outlook and the impact of unfavorable development program adjustments, we are reducing RIS’ full year adjusted operating profit from the prior range of flat to up $50 million to a new range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year. And finally, at RMD, also due to ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impact, along with the anticipated cost reduction, we are reducing RMD’s full year sales outlook from the prior range of up low to mid single-digit to a new outlook of up slightly versus prior year. And as a result, we are reducing RMD’s adjusted operating profit from a prior range of up $150 million to $200 million and now expect RMD’s operating profit to be in the range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year. And we also expect some improvement in some corporate spending and a lower full year tax rate. We have included and updated out some of those below-the-line items in the webcast appendix. So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the second quarter segment results.
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 7, sales were $5 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 25% driven by a 33% increase in parts and repair, a 20% increase in provisioning and an 8% increase in modification and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 3%. Commercial OE sales were up 14% versus prior year with strength in narrow-body offsetting expected headwinds from lower 787 deliveries. Military sales were down 6% driven primarily by lower material receipts on military programs and expected declines in F-35 volume. Adjusted operating profit of $617 million was up $99 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket more than offset higher SG&A expense, the absence of favorable contract settlements and lower military sales volume. Looking ahead, as Neil discussed, we continue to see Collins’ full year sales up low double-digits and we now see adjusted operating profit up $700 million to $825 million versus last year. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 8, sales of $5 billion were up 16% on an adjusted basis and up 17% on an organic basis, with sales growing across all segments. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26% in the quarter, with growth in both legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits. Commercial OE sales were up 22% driven by higher GTF deliveries and favorable mix within Pratt’s large commercial engine business. In the military business, sales were up 5% driven primarily by the timing of F135 production contract award in Q2, higher F135 aftermarket volume. Adjusted operating profit of $303 million was up $207 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, favorable commercial OE mix along with higher military volume were partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D. Looking ahead, we now expect Pratt sales to be up low teens and for adjusted operating profit to be up $550 million to $650 million versus 2021. Turning now to Slide 9, RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 6% versus prior year on an adjusted basis primarily driven by the divestiture of the global training and services business. Sales were down 1% versus prior year on an organic basis due to lower expected sales in command, control and communications as well as lower sales within sensing and effects that were partially offset by higher sales in classified cyber programs within cyber training and services. The quarter was also impacted by the delay of certain contract awards. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $315 million was down $100 million versus prior year primarily driven by lower net program efficiencies, including unfavorable development program adjustments, the impact of the divestiture in the absence of a land sale in the prior year. RIS had $3 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $16 billion. It’s worth noting that we continue to expect RIS’ full year book-to-bill to be greater than one. Turning to RIS’ full year outlook, as Neil discussed, we now expect RIS sales to be down mid-single digits to down low single digits on a reported basis versus prior year and to be about flat on an organic basis. And we expect RIS adjusted operating profit to be down $50 million to flat versus prior year. Turning now to Slide 10, RMD sales were $3.6 billion down 11% on an adjusted basis and down 10% on an organic basis primarily driven by continuing delays in material availability and expected declines in certain land, warfare and an air defense program that were partially offset by higher volume on SPY-6 production and next-generation interceptor development. Adjusted operating profit of $348 million was $184 million lower than prior year driven primarily by lower net program efficiencies resulting from continued supply chain constraints and unfavorable program mix and lower volume primarily in land, warfare and air defense programs. RMD’s bookings in the quarter were approximately $4.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.3 and a backlog of $30 billion. In addition to the awards that Greg discussed, RMD also booked $423 million on the SPY-6 hardware production and sustainment program and $217 million for Tomahawk production for the U.S. Navy. For the full year, we now expect RMD’s full year book-to-bill to be closer to 1.2. And looking ahead, we now expect RMD sales to be up slightly versus prior year and for adjusted operating profit to be down $50 million to flat versus prior year. With that, I’ll turn it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Jennifer. I’m on Slide 11 now. We will be just a second for Q&A. So despite some of the macro uncertainties for the remainder of the year, we’re well equipped to mitigate the challenges that we talked about
Operator:
First question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Please go ahead, Ron Epstein.
Ron Epstein:
Hi, good morning, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Ron.
Ron Epstein:
So maybe if we can peel back the onion more on what’s going on in the supply chain and defense. And for RMD, right, you were down 7% in the first quarter, 11% this quarter. You say you’re going to be up during the year, which means you’re going to have a pretty good inflection. How is that going to happen? It’s almost a little hard to believe. And then I guess, another way to ask this, it seems like your commercial businesses right now are run better than your defense businesses, but there are any lessons that the defense businesses can learn from the commercial business? Because it’s really surprising, I mean you guys are a DX-designated company. So you should have full-on ahead of the line right in terms of supply chain. So what’s really going on there? Because it’s surprising that it’s hitting you guys so hard.
Greg Hayes:
Ron, that is the question of the day. I would tell you. First of all, just to be clear, most of our programs are not DX-rated. In fact, there are very few where we have DFAS ratings that give us priority on in the supply chain. Again, those are very, very few. But I’ll tell you, there is a couple of significant differences between our commercial businesses and the defense side. On the commercial side, you probably say this for about 80% of our supplies suppliers around long-term agreements, right? That long-term agreement allows us the ability to give forecast demand, but it also gives us a priority. And our suppliers as part of those LTAs are required to keep buffer stock in place. Now, all that gives us certainty of cost and certainty of delivery. Now it doesn’t always work. We talked about structural castings at Pratt & Whitney back in Q1. That continues to be a challenge. But for the most part, the commercial businesses have done a better job, I would say, because of the way we structure those long-term agreements. If you look at the defense side of the business, only about 10% of those businesses of RMD and RIS, suppliers are on long-term agreements. And that’s not surprising because of government contracting rules. The problem that we’ve had is as we’ve received all these new awards, we’ve been going out – and once the award is set once the contract is signed, we’re going out and we’re putting – or suppliers on contract, and we’re seeing lead times double and sometimes triple. And we have been, I would say, caught off-guard a little bit by how much pressure there is in the supply chain. And I would tell you, it all goes back to labor availability. Typically, during these – the downturn that we saw in A&D 2 years ago, there was a lot of layoffs. There is a lot of people that were let go. Typically, we get about 75% to 80% of those folks come back off of layoff. In this case, what we’re seeing in our supply chain is only about 25% of the people are coming back. They have found other jobs, similar jobs. Again, because the labor market is so tight in this country, we just don’t have a large pool of resources. The other problem I would tell you again, it’s not just material. It’s also labor availability. I’m thinking about our RIS business, which has over 5,000 programs that we’re executing on, right? That requires engineers and engineers with clearances. If you look at the unemployment rate for engineering talent in the U.S., it’s less than 2%. We started the year with a goal of hiring about 2,000 engineered net of attrition, which means we have to hire probably more than 5,000, and we are struggling in that regard as well. And again, you don’t think about it, but engineers working on programs generate revenue. And so as we think about the issues in Q2 and really the first half of the year, we have seen the supply chain but also a labor availability impact our defense businesses. As you talk about the back half of the year, you’re absolutely right, there is a lot of work to do. Right now, just to give you a couple of statistics, in the second quarter, in our factories, we typically look to provide kits to the shop floor to assemble, and we target somewhere between 90% and 95% kit availability. In other words, all the parts are there, 90% to 95% of the time. In the second quarter, because of all of these supply chain constraints, we saw kit fill rates around 50%, 50%. So you can imagine the amount of rework, the lost productivity in our shops as we are starting things that are not complete. Going back, doing rework, all of that is what’s causing some of these headaches on the defense side. Now as we look at the back half of the year, we’ve had some very deep dive reviews with Chris Calio and Neil Mitchill with the guys going out and making sure that we have line of sight to the supply recovery plans. And we expect kit fill rates, for instance, to go from roughly 50% to about 80% by the end of the year. That’s a big get, but we absolutely have to do that. And again, we are deploying resources. As I said in our comments, we’ve got about 30 suppliers where we have people today working through all this. It is pick-and-shovel work, and it’s also about trying to make sure they have got the right labor – trained labor to get all this done. So it is a hill to climb in the back half of the year, and it is a challenge that we’re going to have to take out in order to – first of all, to meet our customer demands or our customer needs. I mean this is really about making sure we can deliver to our customers on time. And right now, we’re suffering. I don’t know, Neil, anything you want to add to that?
Neil Mitchill:
Maybe I’ll just put a little color around the kind of hill that we’re looking at for the second half. At RMD, one of the big challenges is the material receipts. We talked in the first quarter about sort of COVID-induced labor issues in the supply chain. We expected that to get better in the second quarter, and it did not. And in fact, it got a little bit worse. When I look at the second half of the year, RMD in particular, needs to see about a 25% volume step-up in dollars in the second half versus the first half. Obviously, our new outlook for RMD reflects that. And at RIS, material is also an important part of their products, and it’s about a 15% step-up in the second half. So those are the metrics that we’re monitoring on a daily and weekly basis. As it relates to their performance, the only other thing, Greg, I would add is productivity. So one of the big reasons, I’d say about half of the drop in the margin at RMD in the second quarter was related to lost productivity, the absence of productivity. And our profit outlook for the remainder of the year for RMD reflects us not catching up on that productivity given the kit fill rate issues that you talked about.
Ron Epstein:
Great. Thanks. If I can, I mean, going from 50% to 80%, is that even a realistic goal? I mean given – I mean most of the points that you brought up about hiring people that fast turnaround stuff, right? I mean that’s – it’s not something that’s going to change on the dime. If you’re use…
Greg Hayes:
Let’s be clear, Ron, this does not get solved this year. I think, again, getting to a kit fill rate of 80% is interesting. But literally, we need to be at 95% to be running at I would say, a normal pace. It is a lot of work. We’ve done a lot of, I would say, deep dive reviews on supply chain, going through supplier by supplier. That’s why we’ve got people out of all of these different suppliers, making sure they are meeting their commitments. I think the only thing that’s going to solve labor availability, I hate to say this, is a slowdown in the economy because right now, there just simply aren’t enough people in the workforce for all of our suppliers. And look, we pay a very, very competitive wage at RTX. But as you go down into the second, third and fourth tier of the supply chain, they are struggling to attract workers. But again, we’ve got people out there. I would tell you, as we’ve done these reviews, we have a path to get there. It is not an easy path. It is going to be a challenge throughout the year. And we will see how we do – we’re tracking material receipts day by day, and it’s a big hill.
Ron Epstein:
Alright. Great, thank you, guys.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Ron.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead, Robert Stallard.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Greg, maybe to follow-up on Ron’s point there on supply chain and labor and the impact of inflation. What do you see as the – your ability to pass this on you? Is there a cap to how much you can pass this, up the chain or it’s going to be different in aerospace versus defense? But is there a point where you have to start biting more of the bullet of these cost increases?
Greg Hayes:
As we look at it this year, Rob, we’ve got about $200 million of additional inflation headwind that we didn’t anticipate when we started the year. So that $200 million, we’ve had to go out. We’ve done a number of initiatives looking to ways within the supply chain to eliminate that headwind. And so far, we’ve done a pretty good job of that. Keep in mind, that’s on top of about $300 million of headwind from the Russia exit that we had earlier in the year. So I would tell you, the team has done a good job in managing cost and finding ways to overcome some of the headwinds that we’ve seen. On the commercial side, again, the LTA coverage at 80% really provides you a lot of coverage with inflation. Now there is dead bands in there and excess inflation above some levels. Usually 6% or 7% gets shared with the supplier. But for the most part, we’ve been able to manage through that. On the defense side, what we’ve seen – again, we’ve seen labor inflation clearly. We’ve been able to put most of that, though, into our overhead rates, and that gets recovered in the normal contracting process. We’ve also seen, again, just inflation in the supply chain. But again, most – well, I would say, at least 30% of the work that we have is cost type at RMD. And so you’re able to pass that along. And right now, again, I think one of the reasons we continue to push this on the RMD side is to make sure that we can overcome the inflationary impacts that we’re seeing in the supply chain there. So I think, again, we need to learn the lessons of how we manage this from the commercial side. And going to more LTAs, I think, is absolutely essential if we’re going to be able to have some kind of consistency in terms of supply chain going forward.
Robert Stallard:
That’s great. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Rob.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays. Your question please, David Strauss.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, David.
David Strauss:
Greg, could you maybe touch on the recovery on the GTF side of things? I think you had missed 70 in Q1. You were saying you were to about 180 – up around 100 deliveries for the full year. Can you just talk about where you are there? And then also talk on the Pratt Canada side. I saw deliveries were down in the quarter. I think you had highlighted previously that titanium was a pretty big issue on the Pratt Canada side? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Thanks, David. Let me – just on the GTF side. I would tell you, right now, we continue to deliver GTS behind schedule. And we will not catch up, as I think I said back in February until the end of the year. And this is – again, goes back to a single issue around structural castings. We’re not holding up the line at Airbus. That’s the good news with the 1100. We’re not holding up the line on the 1500s either on the C Series or I guess, the A220. So we’re managing this with the customers. We’re managing this with the supply chain. And we really expect – again, you’re going to see a big step-up in the back half of the year on GTF deliveries. As you think about your Pratt had a great first half. Second half, again, even with the recovery in commercial aftermarket, it’s going to be tough because you got a lot more negative engine margin in the back half of the year. So again, that all goes into the calculus of the full year guidance. But I would tell you right now, there is no other surprises on GTF beyond those structural castings. And there is always little things, David, but nothing huge. On the Pratt Canada side, you’re exactly right on titanium. And again, this is primarily around the sanctions and our inability to continue to buy nor our desire to buy anything from Russia. So we have been working to identify second sources, qualify them. I will tell you we will impact production lines at a number of our customers. I’m sure you’re going to hear that from them as well on the biz jet side. We’re just not going to be able to make all the deliveries. Now we’re not talking about dozens and dozens of aircraft, but you’re talking 5 to 10 airplanes at these customers that are going to be without engines because we don’t have the titanium forgings that we had expected to get this year. So again, this will recover sometime in the middle of next year, but there is still a lot of work to do to get these suppliers re-qualified. And I think every single person in commercial aerospace is facing the same problems with Russian titanium. The fact is it wasn’t a huge piece of the supply chain, but it was 20% plus of global titanium and we are all going after those same resources. Interestingly, we were in the Farnborough last week. I had a good conversation with a number of our suppliers on this. People are stepping up. People understand this is a long-term business, and I think the suppliers of titanium see this as a big opportunity to take share. So, we will work through it, but it’s not going to be without a little bit of pain to our customers.
David Strauss:
Greg, how far along are you in reallocating these titanium supply contracts?
Greg Hayes:
Well, we are probably – in terms of identifying the sources and the contracts, I would say, we are almost complete. The issue simply is getting the parts qualified. You have got to go through a first article. You got to go through the metallurgical analysis. You got to make sure that the composition of material is exactly the same as what it was prior. And then you got to get the parts certified. So, that’s the part that takes time. It’s not actually identifying the suppliers. We have done that. We have got everything lined up. The same thing on heat exchangers. Recall, we made a number of different commercial heat exchangers in – at our joint venture in Moscow. All that work was discontinued on the 27th of February, and we are still working through the requalification of heat exchangers. And that’s 787s, that’s 777s, that’s Embraer 170. There is a number of issues that are now – we have got coverage for titanium for most of those or for heat exchangers through the end of the year, and we are working through the requal there. But we are not done yet. There is a lot of work to do.
David Strauss:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Your question please.
Noah Poponak:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Obviously, what’s happening with supply chain labor inflation is – it’s unprecedented and hard to manage and hard to forecast. But I am confused by the pace of deterioration or the narrow window in which the defense forecast have changed because unprecedented and hard to manage and hard to forecast. But I am confused by the pace of deterioration or the narrow window in which the defense forecast have changed because the variances – the negative variances are pretty large. And if I go back to just the first quarter call in April, you are talking about supply chain labor inflation repeatedly, the whole world was. And so you were giving guidance just three months ago and a month into the quarter. And so have supply chain, labor inflation deteriorated that much in just two months to three months’ time, or is it that it’s just that difficult to forecast? And if it’s the latter, if I go back to this discussion of the second half inflection, it’s still really hard to stare at this RMD guidance and see how you can have that much of an acceleration. Maybe you could spend some time on the specific programs that drive that to get us more comfortable.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Noah, that is a great point. I would tell you, when we exited the first quarter, and we knew that we had seen supply chain challenges, specifically at RMD, and the thought was, and which turned out to be, of course, incorrect, was that most of the supply chain challenges were related to Omicron, and that’s why we had ones in December or in January, but we really expect it as COVID receded into the background that we would see a quick recovery in the supply chain. And in fact, that was wrong. The labor challenges that we continue to see have not abated. And again, I think that is the challenge, and that’s the reason we continue to struggle in supply chain. Inflation is a challenge, but we can measure it, we can work to overcome it. Not having enough people in the supply chain, that has proven to be much more difficult. And so again, we have gone through this, I would tell you, program-by-program, line item-by-line item in terms of what’s in our MRP schedule. And there are some go-gets out there, but we have commitments from suppliers to hit these numbers. And I think that’s the – that is the challenge is making sure that our suppliers continue to deliver on the recovery plans that they have laid out for us. I don’t know, Neil, anything you want to…
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, two points because there has been a compounding impact that we have seen in the second quarter and expect to persist. And one is with the slowdown of receipts of material. We got a different mix of output during the quarter, more development program focused, and our lower margin production contracts were the ones that received the materials. So, getting back to that fill rate conversation, you had the stuff that was coming in not being on the more profitable programs. The second piece of that, the knockdown effect of that is the absence of labor productivity in the shops. And so with the fill rates being down in that 50% range, we just did not get the benefit of rolling through labor efficiencies, which is the primary driver of the EAC benefits we typically see in a quarter and RMD has seen. Now in the second half, we expect some, not all of that, to recover. And so it is a tough hill in the second half. I think we have got the right resources to engage with suppliers and within the business and on the shop floors. But we are looking at this every day, and we do need to see a market improvement in productivity in the shops to drive that P&L benefit in the second half of the year.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks Noah.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your question please, Sheila Kahyaoglu.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay. I could I guess that was me. Good morning guys.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning. Hi Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. When we think about the U.S. airlines, just pushing gears a little bit, they are finally seeing pricing tailwinds and capacity constraints. So, can you talk a little bit about your aftermarket business? Are you seeing different actions from the airlines? How is pricing trending relative to history? And then can you maybe remind us of your aftermarket guidance expectations for the year with long-haul international expectations for the second half?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Let me start with some of the outlook pieces here. First, at Collins, we now expect aftermarket to be up between 20% and 25% year-over-year. So, we are at the halfway mark of the year. I think it’s important. I have been talking a lot about the uncertainty around the recovery, and we are pleased to see that improving, obviously, and holding. I think Greg will probably want to add a couple of comments here as well. But clearly, the demand for air travel is very strong. We are seeing some encouragement in terms of the wide body routes opening up as well and expect that to continue in the second half. And on the Pratt side, we now see the aftermarket up year-over-year 25%. So, really good performance there. Our customers are giving us good line of sight to shop visit inductions. We are a little over 40% towards our plan for the year in terms of V2500 shop visits. There is still some work to be done in the back half of the year. As you know, China was closed down for the better part of the second quarter, and that is a piece of the back half growth. But we feel pretty confident. We have got a good dialogue with our customers, good line of sight to the third quarter in particular, and I expect that to continue in the fourth quarter.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Sheila, all I would say is that it’s an interesting time for the commercial aerospace business. Demand is – unprecedented is the wrong word. I would say the trajectory of the recovery certainly I think caught people by a surprise in terms of the desire to travel again. And you can tell every time you go to an airport today the long lines that we have. And the problem, of course, is it’s not just pilot shortages, but it’s baggage handlers. It’s TSA agents, it’s everybody that supports commercial airlines. They are struggling with the same labor availability that we talked about in the supply chain. So, the recovery is very strong. Pricing, as you know, for the airlines is very strong. Fuel prices, Jet A has doubled in price in the last year. But it’s come off of its eyes a couple of months ago. So, I think again, the airlines financially are doing very well. And the biggest concern they have is aircraft availability. And so we are going to see very strong inductions into the shop. We have seen very strong orders in our aftermarket and getting a little bit stronger than we had anticipated going into the second quarter. And we don’t think there is anything that changes that trajectory in the back half of the year. Absent a huge resurgence in COVID, I think again, people want to travel. China will reopen at some point, which we have seen a quick snapback in demand as soon as China reopens. So, I think it’s all pointing in a positive direction on commercial aero for the back half of the year and into 2023. So, I think again, we are well along the recovery path and no change in trajectory.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Please go ahead Peter Arment.
Peter Arment:
Hey. Good morning Greg, Neil and Jennifer.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning Peter.
Peter Arment:
Greg, if I could just come back to kind of the differences between commercial aerospace or your aerospace business, how well it’s performing, but dealing with a lot of the same probably supply chain that overlaps with defense. Maybe if you can just call out maybe some of the differences? Because I think a lot of it is struggling on the defense side, it really seems very complex and trying to get back to kind of the trajectory versus where your commercial aerospace business is. Probably dealing with a lot of the same challenges, but at the same time is performing really well. I mean maybe just call out a couple of differences that would be helpful. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Look, one of the – one of the benefits on the commercial side is we are not handicapped with government contracting regulations. And to that end, the MMS, material management system, which dictates how much inventory we can drive and how soon we can place things on order, really constrains our ability to be flexible on the defense side. I would tell you the reason that we have been able to be successful on the commercial side is we have driven a lot of inventory in. You look at the inventory, it’s up about $1 billion since the beginning of the year. It’s up about $400 million in the second quarter, primarily on the commercial side to meet the higher demand. So, we have been driving material in faster. We are not constrained on the commercial side by the MMS system. And I think again, that is a lesson learned for us. And what we told the team in defense is bring it in. We don’t have to build it. We had to bring in more inventory sooner rather than within normal lead times, that’s okay. So, we are going to go out and be a little more aggressive with inventory. We are not talking billions of dollars, but the fact is we need to drive inventory in faster and give some surety of supply or surety of demand rather to our supply chain, such as they continue to drive material in. And look, some of the suppliers we know are not going to get better this year. Rocket motors, we have talked about that continually for over a year. We know that’s a recovery that stretches probably into 2024. But that’s only a piece of the problem. I mean it’s again trying to make sure we have got the right chips and microelectronics and really hand-to-mouth there. But again, we have the tools. And again, the folks here at the corporate office and supply chain are off working with the folks on the defense side to help overcome some of these challenges, but it’s not easy.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color. Thanks Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks Peter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn of Melius Research. Your question please, Robert Spingarn.
Robert Spingarn:
Thank you. Greg, I wanted to go back to the discussion on inflation and labor constraints and ask what the longer term opportunity is to apply automation across the four businesses to mitigate these issues. Does this require brand-new programs or brand-new facilities to implement? And more specifically with Asheville, it seems that, that’s going to be a tough labor situation. It’s an inherently labor-intensive business casting, and you don’t really have an available labor pool there that’s trained in casting. So, how do you staff that plant specifically, or will it be more automated?
Greg Hayes:
Well, look, it’s – I would tell you, factory automation is something that we have been doing for a number of years. I think about the facility we have at Pratt Canada that went online more than 5 years ago, completely lights out manufacturing. So, we have been making investments, I will call it, an industry 4.0 across all of our factories. We have got the new project down in Dallas, the new factory, automated factory that’s going in down there. You have got Asheville. And Asheville, while it is a large facility, the actual number of employees is only I think about 800 that we are going to be hiring, and we have been actively hiring them today to train them for the opening, which has happened sometime I think at the end of next year. So, look, it will be a challenge. But I would tell you, again, if you work at Pratt & Whitney, work at Collins or anywhere we across the RTX portfolio, we pay very good wages. But labor cost is a very – or direct labor cost, a very small piece of our cost of sales. The bigger challenge I would tell you is on the engineering front. And again, that’s – it’s just trying to find enough qualified engineers with clearances to drive the revenue growth that we have been expecting on all of these programs that we have signed up for. So, inflation is a problem, but we can deal with the inflation. The fact, labor shortages, we can deal with it within our own four walls because we have got really good pay, really good competitive benefits. People come to Raytheon because of our mission. And I think that’s a differentiator that we have in the marketplace. And the hope, of course, is as we see the economy slow down here in the coming months and perhaps year, that we will have the opportunity to continue to drive more folks into both the shop floor as well as into our offices on these programs. As far as automation, we are going to continue to drive automation. It’s what we do to drive cost reduction that we are encouraging suppliers to do the same thing. But it’s all contemplated, I think in the kind of $2.5 billion a year that we spend on CapEx, which is not an insignificant amount.
Robert Spingarn:
Greg, just one more thing on Asheville. You mentioned structural castings earlier. We know that it’s been a long pole in the tent here. If I remember correctly, Asheville is supposed to be for airfoils, but might you do structural large structures there just to address this single supplier problem.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Look, we will take airfoils first. And I think, again, whether we decide later on to go up the supply chain there, that’s a decision in another relatively large investment. The fact is structural castings require huge capital and I would tell you a workforce that is highly skilled. We are going to start with airfoils. It will take us several years to get up to full run rate production there, and then we will see where we go from there. But really no plans to go beyond structural – I am sorry, to go beyond the airfoils at this point.
Robert Spingarn:
Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Seth Seifman:
Yes. Thanks very much. Good morning. Thanks for all the color on the defense situation. Maybe just a quick final question that’s a little more thematic. Greg, how do you think about the role of the company in China over time and the pace at which maybe the U.S. and China are decoupling on aerospace? We see the 737 MAX that it seems to be stuck in some political limbo right now in China, Collins as a supplier on the C919. How fast do you see these two kinds of aviation worlds is splitting up, or is that not the right way to think about it? How do you think about that these days?
Greg Hayes:
So look, China remains an incredibly large market for commercial aerospace, is an incredibly important market for commercial aerospace growth over the coming decades. Obviously, the Chinese have a desire to have indigenous aircraft. That’s the C919, maybe the C929 at some point. But the fact is, we think we are going to have – we will continue to work with our partners there. We will continue to utilize supply chain out of China that we have thousands and thousands of parts that come out of China for our commercial aerospace, specifically at Collins, but also some for Pratt Canada and some for Pratt & Whitney. So, look, we are going to continue to work with the Chinese. At the same time, I think we understand the geopolitical realities, and we are also making sure that we have assured supply chain. So, we are looking to make sure we have second sources outside of China in the case that the geopolitical tensions were eye to the point where we are not able to access that supply chain there. That’s a process that’s been ongoing for well over 1.5 years and will continue for the next couple of years, again, thousands of part numbers to do that. But again, we don’t see a decoupling of China from the world the way we have seen a decoupling of Russia from the world after the invasion of Ukraine. Again, it’s – the economy of Russia, relatively small, China is the second largest economy in the world. The decoupling between China and the U.S., I think is impractical and almost impossible to imagine the consequences on the U.S. consumer, the U.S. economy, if we really try to decouple. So, again, the hope here is we find a path forward where we can work together at the same time understanding that we have competing interests. But at the same time, we are retaining a very large presence in China for the commercial aerospace, obviously, not on the defense side. But we understand what we need to do to protect our customers long-term.
Seth Seifman:
Okay. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. So Latif, thank you very much. Appreciate everybody listening in today. Jennifer and team, of course, will be available all day to take your calls and questions, and look forward to seeing you guys sometime early in the fall. Thank you.
Operator:
This now concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ludie , and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from the Raytheon Technologies website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak the results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition, accounting, adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC's SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. . With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Gregory Hayes:
Thank you, Ludie, and good morning, everybody. Before I get into the results, I just want to spend a minute to address the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I know it's first in center on everybody's mind. It's obviously been devastating to see these tragic events unfold and our thoughts and prayers are with the Ukrainian people. We, of course, have ceased all of our business activities with Russia in line with global sanctions, and we remain committed to supporting our allies and ensuring the safety of our people around the world. This event, more than any other, demonstrates our unique responsibility as a global company and trusted with supporting our customers as they navigate a difficult and complex geopolitical landscape, and we remain focused on honoring that mission. All right. Let me turn to the first quarter. As you saw from the press release, we're off to a good start for the year. On the commercial aerospace side, we remain optimistic on the market recovery, despite a slower than expected start to the year due to the impact of Omicron and increased geopolitical tensions. That said, air traffic is rebounding again in many markets around the world. In the U.S., passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints remained steady versus Q4 at about 1.8 million passengers per day in the quarter. But importantly, it averaged over 2 million passengers per day in March, a significant increase last year and a nearly -- that's nearly 90% of what we saw in 2019. So recovery is in sight. On the defense side, we're very pleased with the enacted '22 DoD budget, and we're encouraged by the President's most recent fiscal '23 budget request of $773 billion. The proposed budget includes broad-based support across our key programs and technology investments in cyber, space, missiles, missile defense systems and others, and we expect the enacted budget could be even higher to account for inflation and the many unfunded priorities identified by the services. Looking internationally, our allies are also increasingly prioritizing defense spending with a focus on defensive systems, which we are uniquely positioned to support. Resilient commercial air traffic, coupled with growing global defense budgets and our strong backlog continue to support our long-term outlook for our businesses and gives us confidence in our ability to drive top-line growth and margin expansion over the next several years. All right. Turning to Slide 2, this has some highlights for the quarter. As I said, it was a good start to the year, despite the impact of Omicron and continued supply chain constraints. Commercial aftermarket remained strong in the quarter, growing 38% from Q1 of last year. We delivered solid financial performance in the quarter where we exceeded our expectations on both adjusted EPS and free cash flow. That said, as a result of ceasing business activities in Russia, we are going to reduce our full-year sales outlook by $750 million to a new range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, we are going to hold our adjusted EPS range of $4.60 to $4.80, and we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion for the year. Neil will give you a little more color on this in just a minute. Our defense backlog remained very strong at $62 billion exiting the quarter and total company backlog was $154 billion. Notable defense awards in the quarter included about $1.2 billion of classified bookings at RMD, including a significant competitive award as well as $650 million for the SPY-6 full rate production contract and RIS booked about $1.1 billion of classified awards. On the capital allocation front, we repurchased $743 million of RTX shares during the quarter, and we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion of share for the year. Yesterday, of course, you saw we increased our quarterly dividend by nearly 8% from $0.51 per share to $0.55, continuing our long history of growing and paying a dividend. Since completing the merger, we have returned nearly $9 billion to RTX shareowners, and by the end of this year, by the end of '22, that will be in excess of $13 billion. And of course, we remain committed to returning at least $20 billion to shareowners in the first four years following the merger. That shouldn't be an issue at all. On the program execution front, we recently delivered the first LTAMS unit into the U.S. Army test program. It's an important milestone for what will be a franchise program for RMD. And finally, we launched RTX Ventures to accelerate our pipeline of innovative technologies to grow -- to drive future growth and see an ecosystem of groundbreaking technology companies. With that, let me turn it over to Neil, and I'll will be back for the wrap-up and Q&A. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Well, thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we delivered adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow that exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Sales of $15.7 billion were in line with our expectations and up 4% organically versus the prior year. Our performance in the quarter was primarily driven by the continued recovery of domestic and short-haul international air travel that was partially offset by continued supply chain constraints across our businesses. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 was up 28% year-over-year and ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by commercial aftermarket at Collins, $0.04 of commercial OE timing at Pratt and other corporate items, including lower tax expense, which more than offset the supply chain constraints. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.74 per share and included $0.41 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or nonrecurring items, which included $0.14 of charges associated with the impact of global sanctions on Russia. And free cash flow of $37 million was better than our expectations of an outflow of $500 million, driven primarily by working capital, most notably the timing of collections during the quarter. And finally, let me give you an update on our synergy progress. During the quarter, we achieved incremental gross cost synergies of about $90 million, putting us on track to achieve $335 million of incremental cost synergies for the full-year. With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on the rest of 2022. Jennifer?
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $4.8 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in the commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 39%, driven by a 73% increase in provisioning, a 43% increase in parts and repair and 11% increase in modification and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 5%. Commercial OE sales were up 12% with strength in narrow-body, offsetting expected headwinds from lower 787 deliveries. And military sales were down 12%, driven primarily by supply chain constraints and expected declines in F-35 volume. Adjusted operating profit of $584 million was up $252 million from the prior year, drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE volume more than offset lower military sales volume and higher SG&A expense. Looking ahead, as a result of ceasing activities with Russia, we now expect Collins full-year sales to be about $375 million lower than our prior expectations, but still expect their sales to grow low double-digits. However, as a result of better mix and spending containment, we are maintaining Collins full-year operating profit range of up $650 million to $800 million versus 2021. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $4.5 billion were up 12% on an adjusted basis and up 13% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery of the commercial aerospace industry. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 37% in the quarter with legacy large commercial engine shop visit inductions up 9% and Pratt Canada shop visits up 22%. Commercial OE sales were up 12%, driven by favorable mix within Pratt's large commercial engine business as well as higher general aviation platforms at Pratt Canada. In the Military business, sales were down 11%, driven by F-135 production contract award timing and lower expected production volume that were partially offset by higher F-135 aftermarket volume. Adjusted operating profit of $308 million was up $268 million from the prior-year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales volume, favorable large commercial OE mix and higher Pratt Canada OE volume were partially offset by higher SG&A and E&D as well as lower military sales volume. Looking ahead, as a result of ceasing activities with Russia, we also now expect Pratt's full-year sales to be about $375 million lower than our prior expectations and now expect their sales to grow high single to low double-digits. However, as a result of better mix and spending containment, we are maintaining Pratt's full-year operating profit range of up $500 million to $600 million versus 2021. Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 5% versus prior-year on an adjusted basis, primarily driven by the divestiture of the global training and service business. Sales were in line with prior-year on an organic basis. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $378 million was down $10 million versus prior-year, primarily driven by the impact of the divestiture that was partially offset by net productivity across various programs. RIS had $2.6 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.8 in a backlog of $17 billion. In addition to significant bookings that Greg mentioned, RIS also booked $311 million for the next-generation OPIR Geo. It's worth noting that we continue to expect RIS full-year book-to-bill to be greater than 1. Turning to RIS full-year outlook. We continue to expect RIS sales to be down slightly on a reported basis and to grow low single-digit on an organic basis. We also continue to expect RIS operating profit to be flat to up $50 million versus 2021. Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales was $3.5 billion, down 7% on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by the continuing supply chain constraints and decline in certain land, warfare and air defense programs. Adjusted operating profit of $387 million was $109 million lower than prior-year, driven primarily by lower net program efficiencies and unfavorable program mix. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $4.1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.18 and a backlog of $29 billion. In addition to the awards that Greg discussed, RMD also booked about $385 million for ex-caliber rapid demo for the U.S. Army, about $220 million for AIM-9X Sidewinder for the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force and international customers and about $220 million for Patriot engineering support services for the U.S. Army and international customers. It's worth noting that we now expect RMD's full-year book-to-bill to be at least 1.1. Looking ahead, we continue to expect RMD sales to grow low to mid-single digit and operating profit growth of $150 million to $200 million versus 2021. With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on the rest of the year.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. Let me give you some perspective on how we're thinking about the environment as we look ahead. I'll start with some of the positives. Despite the impact of COVID variants early in the year, we continue to expect that the commercial aerospace recovery will remain resilient and will drive growth in commercial aftermarket and narrow-body OE deliveries this year. Notwithstanding the fact that global RPMs grew roughly four points less than we expected in the first quarter, Commercial aftermarket grew in line with our expectations as operators began preparing their fleets for the summer travel season. At the same time, we're closely monitoring China domestic and international traffic. And as I've said before, our outlook assumes a significant improvement in wide-body traffic during the balance of the year. That said, we continue to expect commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels by the end of next year. On the defense side, as Greg mentioned, we are optimistic about the President's fiscal '23 budget request, which included a 5% base budget increase in the modernization accounts where our investments in technology and innovation are well aligned to the administration's priorities and our major programs are well supported. And while it's too early to quantify today, all of our businesses are positioned to support the expected growth in U.S. and international defense spending. On the cost reduction front, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence to deliver further margin expansion, including $1.5 billion of total gross cost synergies. On the challenges side, we continue to see global supply chain, inflation and labor availability pressures across our businesses. And while we saw increasing risk in these areas during the first quarter, we remain focused on mitigating actions and expect supply chain constraints will ease later in the year. And finally, we continue to monitor the broader geopolitical environment, including the impact of global sanctions as well as the U.S. and global tax environment. Turning now to our outlook on Slide 9. As Greg discussed, due to ceasing business activities with Russia, we are reducing our full-year sales outlook by $750 million, which, as we said, is split evenly between Collins and Pratt. We now see full-year sales between $67.75 billion and $68.75 billion for the full-year. However, from an earnings perspective, we continue to expect adjusted earnings per share to be between $4.60 and $4.80 due to improving sales mix and spending containment at both Collins and Pratt. And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion. It's important to remind everyone that our cash flow outlook continues to assume that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which, as I've said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion for the year. So with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Gregory Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. Just a couple of thoughts here on our '22 priorities, which remain essentially unchanged. Obviously, we remain focused on supporting our customers, our employees, suppliers and communities so that we can actually execute on our mission of defending democracy and connecting the world, and today's environment reinforces the need for us to invest in innovative technologies to remain competitive, to drive industry leadership and to deliver the right solutions for our customers. We'll do this while driving operational excellence and remaining disciplined with our capital, including meeting our capital return commitments. And of course, we're committed to doing all of this responsibly as evidenced by the publication of our first RTX ESG report yesterday, which builds upon our long history of best practices in this area. And finally, earlier this month, we celebrated the two-year anniversary of our merger. I'm very proud of what we've accomplished together so far, and I want to thank all of our employees for all of their efforts during this very difficult and challenging period. I'm confident in the investment thesis we laid out at the investor conference last May. Our franchises are strong. We operate in resilient markets, and we have great technology. And importantly, we have experienced leadership that is focused on operational excellence and delivering on our long-term commitments. With that, let me open up the call for questions. Ludie?
Operator:
Thank you. The first question will come from the line of Myles Walton from UBS. Your line is open.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. Greg or Neil, could you comment on the gradients of the supply chain constraints you saw in the first quarter as you look to the second quarter? In particular, the two items of Pratt commercial engines and rocket motors. I know you've talked about recovery by year-end, but have you passed the point of low and you're seeing improvement sequentially?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Myles, thanks for the question. So I think we laid this out last month -- I guess a month and a half ago when we were speaking at the Barclays Investor Conference. But the fact is, we had problem with our structural casting supplier where we were not able to get castings into our MRP schedule. That resulted in about 70 engines moving out of the first quarter. That problem is not behind us, but we are working with that supplier to recover that, and we'll get most of the way there by the end of the year, but it is not without its challenges. Like everybody else, our suppliers are seeing a shortage of labor as well as inflation in their own businesses. So that's the first piece. I think, again, we understand the issue, and we have a plan to recover it. On the rocket motor side, this impacts most of the RMD businesses and that remains problematic. We have a recovery plan that we work with them on every day. We have a number of our folks that are at their facilities every single day working through this, making sure we're being prioritized, but the recovery is not going to happen this year. I think we are so far behind on rocket motors, it will -- it could well stretch into the 2023 timeframe. So again, not a new issue, but one that we have not been able to solve yet. And we're off working with other suppliers to try and requalify other rocket motors, but it is a long process to do that. So we're going to be hand to mouth on rocket motors for a period of time yet.
Myles Walton:
Okay. Okay. And just a clarification. Did that drive the EAC in the quarter in RMD? Is that the reason to lighter margins?
Neil Mitchill:
Myles, it's Neil. Good morning. Let me comment a little bit on the margins. There's a couple of things driving the margins year-over-year. I would characterize it in a couple of different buckets. The first one is about 110 basis points I would attribute to lower EACs in the quarter versus a year ago. And I would say that some of that was, in fact, driven by the fact that because of the supply chain delays that we encountered in the first quarter, they pushed key milestones out to the right that we're looking to that would be the indicators of when we could realize productivity. So we expect productivity to return to the RMD business in the second quarter and beyond, and certainly, the first quarter, I think, marks a low point of the year for RMD and the margin, but that was the principal contributor. The second piece, just to kind of finish the thought the other 100 basis points I would attribute to the contract mix. And we've been talking about this for quite some time now about the mix to -- from lower international Patriot and NASAMS production volume and some lower-margin development contracts that are in process right now. So overall, with RMD sales down 7% in the quarter, about half of that was expected and the other half was, I'd say, driven by the supply chain. We also did have one fewer workday in the quarter. That's probably about $50 million for the quarter. But we do expect that to recover as the year goes on. RMD is still expected to be up about 3% year-over-year on a sales basis.
Myles Walton:
All right. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn from Melius Research. Your line is open.
Robert Spingarn:
Well, hi. Good morning.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Spingarn:
A couple of things on defense. Jennifer talked about, I think it was low to mid single-digit sales growth profile at RMD going forward. Does this embed incremental demand that you talked about expected out of Europe? More specifically, the army -- will the army replace the current 1,400 stingers that were sent to Ukraine? And would that be through a sole source contract or perhaps, a competitive follow-on contract?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes. Let me start with that. As far as looking at the sales forecast for RMD, that does actually not contemplate any upside that we see from replenishment of stocks. And again, we're working through all that, trying to understand the timing. Clearly, we won't see any of that benefit this year, but as we think about the next couple of years, as we see the budgets continue to increase and we see the replenishment orders come in, we would expect we will see a benefit to the RMD top-line, which will take that that number up somewhat. So again, we're not quite ready to give you a new number, but I would just tell you, it's going to be higher than what we've got there. As far as the stingers, we should keep in mind, we have -- we are currently producing stingers for an international customer, but we have a very limited stock of material for stinger production. We've been working with the DoD for the last couple of weeks. We're actively trying to resource some of the material. But unfortunately, DoD hasn't bought a stinger in about 18 years. And some of the components are no longer commercially available, and so we're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile of the seeker head. That's going to take us a little bit of time. So again, we'll ramp up production what we can this year, but I would expect, again, this is going to be a '23, '24 where we actually see orders come in for the larger replenishments, both on Stinger as well as on Javelin, which has also been very successful in theater.
Robert Spingarn:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird. Your line is open.
Peter Arment:
Good morning Greg, Neil, Jennifer.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Hey Greg, can you give us maybe some color on just where you are on the narrow-body build rate side? I mean it seems like that's a big part of the positives for this year? And just are you seeing running into any supply chain issues on that front? Thanks.
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Peter, I think the biggest supply chain challenge that we're seeing as it relates to the narrow body recovery would go to Pratt & Whitney, obviously, as we think about GTF production. And that's the structural castings issue that we talked about that caused first quarter rates to be lower than what we had expected. So that will get better as we go throughout the year. We actually see supply chain constraints across the commercial portfolio, though. I mean we see it in electronics just like everybody else. We see it in aluminum. We see it in titanium. I think the one of the challenges as we think about Russia, for instance, that was a large source of some of our titanium supplies. And because of the sanctions, we are looking to resource a lot of material, probably not going to impact narrow-body production delivery rates this year, but certainly could going into next year. I would tell you that we're in lockstep with both Airbus and Boeing on their production rates. Obviously, if you talk to the folks at Airbus, they'd like to see a rate of 70 or 75 by 2025. We'll see if we can get there, but we're certainly doing everything we can to support our customers there. But supply chain continues to be an issue, I would say, across the business, especially on the electronics side where we've seen lead times go from three months out to 12 months plus, and we are on allocation for many of those components. So again, nothing dramatic that's going to change our forecast or change our ability. It's just a watch item that we're actively working.
Neil Mitchill:
Peter, maybe I could add a couple of points here, too. Just from a financial perspective, as you think about the sales impact of the Russia on the narrow-body in particular. At Collins, we expect the commercial OE now to be up mid to high teens year-over-year, still very strong growth. And similarly at Pratt, we now expect commercial OE to be up low teens. I had talked about -- Greg and I talked about OE shipments being up about 200. Think about that now is about up 180 at the Pratt business year-over-year. So just a couple of extra data points for you.
Peter Arment:
Thanks, Neil.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Neil, maybe just a follow-up on your Russia comment there. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more detail on this hit to revenues that you're anticipating in 2022, because I wouldn't expect Airbus and Boeing to not remarket planes, for example. Is this all coming on the aftermarket and on BizJet?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Rob, I think if you think about that -- so Russia accounts for about 4% of global RPMs, right? So it's not a huge number, but it accounts for about 1.5% of our total sales. So call that $900 million a year. We're going to be able to mitigate some of that through higher sales elsewhere, but you really do lose some sales associated with aftermarket activity into Russia. Also importantly, at Pratt, we're not shipping engines to . We're not shipping engines to Airbus that would otherwise go into Russia. Now Airbus, of course, will remarket some of those so we won't lose those completely, but we will lose the spare sales associated with those engines going into Russia. So again, we've taken a pretty detailed look at this in terms of the sales impact, and what Neil said, importantly, I think, though, there still is a relatively significant hit in terms of earnings around $200 million. Fortunately, we're going to be able to offset that through cost reduction and just cost containment, but it is not a small number for us as we think about the guidance for the year.
Neil Mitchill:
And Rob, I would also tell you that just to kind of think about the profile of that, think about $225 million a quarter in each of the next three quarters. We actually had about $80 million of sales that did not materialize in the first quarter, because of this impact. And as you think about one other thing to add is, Pratt Canada also was selling engines to -- helicopter engines into Russia. So that will impact the OE. So from a split perspective, Collins about 60% aftermarket, 40% OE. And then at Pratt, about 10% aftermarket, but really heavy on the OE side, 90%.
Robert Stallard:
That's great. Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ronald Epstein:
Yes. Good morning Greg.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning, Ron.
Ronald Epstein:
Maybe just following on that supply chain team. How are you guys handling the titanium situation, right? I mean Russia was a somewhat important supplier for you guys. I mean are you just looking to move that all domestic? And how are you thinking about it?
Gregory Hayes:
Ron, that is a great question. And I think the biggest challenge that we have as we think about these global sanctions on Russia, we did have a relatively significant portion of titanium forgings and castings coming from Russia and many of those are now on the sanctions list. The good news is, as we started looking across the business, and we actually -- we started advanced purchasing back in the fourth quarter when we were able to get ahead of some of the sanctions. So we have inventory for a big chunk of that throughout through the end of this year. I will tell you though that there are some components, especially at Pratt Canada, where it's going to take us some time to resource some of the castings and that's going to impact some of our customer deliveries this year, full stop. And as we think about the sales guidance that Neil was just talking about, obviously, the Pratt Canada piece is directly impacting that in terms of not being able to deliver all the engines that we had hoped to. We'll recover those next year, and we're working on the sourcing. I would tell you, trying to find titanium sourcing today is very difficult. Russia accounted for about 15% of global sponge production. So that's really been taken out of the market. But it's not just the sponge production, it's also the casting and forging facilities that are in Russia that are no longer available to us. So we're working through all of that. I think we've done a pretty good job of identifying what those challenges are and finding second sources. But it's is going to cause us to be late on some deliveries, especially out of Pratt Canada this year, and it's going to take us some time to recover.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it. And if I may as a follow-on. Are you thinking about just permanently moving it out of Russia?
Gregory Hayes:
We're done in Russia, full stop. We actually -- we had a joint venture there where we built commercial heat exchangers for Boeing and Embraer. We closed that facility. We sold our share. We aren't going back. I think this is, as they say, crossing the Rubicon here as far as we're concerned for Russia. We're not going to support the airlines. We're not going to support the development programs. We're not going to support any Russian customers going forward, while this is going on.
Ronald Epstein:
Got it. All right. Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning guys. Thank you for the time.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Maybe on a more upbeat note, can we talk about profitability? It was pretty good, 50% incrementals in the quarter and guidance sort of implies is flattish for the rest of the year. What's sort of going on there? Are you just mitigating for risk with supply chain? And then now that the two year log has expired with the merger, how are you thinking about the portfolio overall?
Neil Mitchill:
Okay. Let me start with the financial piece, and I'll let Greg talk about our portfolio thinking. Good morning, Sheila. So yes, very strong margins for Collins in the quarter, getting a little bit of feedback there. So good margins. The aftermarket, in particular, at Collins, performed quite well with provisioning up 73% year-over-year, and that was really what drove the favorability in the first quarter for us. So I think we don't expect that to sustain itself at quite that level as the year progresses. And also similar to last year, Sheila, you remember that we had phased our expenditures, our E&D, our SG&A. We had furloughs that were still in effect in the first quarter of last year. So those types of items become a headwind as you get a little further into the year. So very strong incrementals in the first quarter. We still expect mid-30s for the next several quarters. For Collins as you see E&D ramp up a little bit. You see the effect of our merit increases take hold on April 1 across the company. But if the aftermarket is stronger, you will surely see that in the margins as well. We're very pleased to see double-digit margins again at Collins. Greg, I'll turn it over to you.
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Sheila, just a comment on portfolio rationalization. We obviously haven't been sitting still for the last two years. We've been looking at across the portfolio. But to your point, we were really kind of hamstrung because of the spin transactions and the merger to not really do anything significant with any of our portfolio during that two year period. So we are actively looking across the portfolio today for both acquisitions as well as divestitures. I would tell you, the acquisitions will probably be technology-related and smaller dollar similar to what we did last year with Seeker Engineering or Blue Canyon in the space side. And then we are going to look at the Collins portfolio for potential divestitures. There are certain businesses that do not have the growth profile, the margin profile or the technical footprint that we're looking for in some of these product lines. So I would expect over the next six to nine months, we'll complete those analysis. Obviously, you don't want to be selling any of these businesses in a down aero market, but with the recovery that we're expecting this year and next, I would think we will probably be doing something later this year or early next year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Gregory Hayes:
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays. Your line is open.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning, David.
David Strauss:
Greg, on the Collins side, any visibility out of Boeing to go above 31 a month on MAX? And where are you today on 87 and the outlook for production to start moving back up again there?
Gregory Hayes:
That's a great question for the Boeing company tomorrow when they release earnings. I would tell you, we're in lockstep with Boeing in terms of the production schedule on MAX for this year. I know they have talked about 31 a month, and we're clearly able to support that level and even higher as we go into next year, 787 production, I think again, it's -- we have been working with Boeing as they're working through their own issues relative to FAA certification to get the aircraft delivered. Obviously, there's -- we haven't been shipping a lot down to Charleston on the 787 over the last quarter because of some of those issues. But we would expect as the year progresses, we'll start to see that pick up. And I would tell you that Boeing has been very transparent with us in terms of sharing what their delivery and the production forecasts are, and it's all reflected in the guidance that we've given for Collins. So no change to any of that today.
David Strauss:
All right. Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning guys.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
On the large commercial engine castings issue at Pratt, is this related to aluminum casting or titanium casting? And also with the raw material and labor inflation, are there threshold limits on how much you're able to pass through to your customers?
Gregory Hayes:
So those are primarily titanium castings from a -- from our supplier that's impacting it. These are structural castings, which means you can't really build -- start building most of the engine until you get the castings in and that's what's the holdup is there. I'm sorry, was there another part to that question, Kristine?
Kristine Liwag:
Yes. Greg, on raw material and labor inflation, are there threshold limits on how much you're able to pass through to customers?
Gregory Hayes:
There are, I think the good news is, as you think about inflation in the supply chain is about 80% of the -- our commercial aerospace supply is on long-term agreements. Obviously, there's -- some of that comes up for renegotiation every year, and we're seeing some cost pressure. Typically, every year, we see maybe $150 million or so of inflation. I would tell you, there's probably an extra $200 million this year of inflation that we're going to have to offset through cost reduction or negotiations with some of the supply chain. In terms of passing it on to the customers, typically, we have dead band pricing within the contracts, which require us to absorb the first tranche of inflation, and beyond that, we can pass on a portion of it. Unfortunately, we're not going to be able to do that this year. That will be a benefit next year as we can increase pricing. We did, of course, increase pricing on the aftermarket through our catalog that was issued, I think, last October. That was roughly a 6% increase year-over-year. So we're able to offset a chunk of the -- of that inflation through pricing, and the rest is going to have to be offset through either cost reduction, redesign or renegotiation.
Neil Mitchill:
And while we're on the topic of supply chain and the castings, that $0.04 benefit that we realized in the first quarter is likely going to end up being a $0.04 headwind as we go through the second quarter and we get the production back on track.
Kristine Liwag:
Great, thank you guys. Very helpful.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Douglas Harned:
Good morning, thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Doug.
Douglas Harned:
If we go back to last summer, you all talked about a five-year CAGR for defense in the sort of 3% to 5% range top line. And now we've seen now that we're seeing the issues with the Russian Invasion, we're looking at stronger defense budgets. You talked about this a little bit earlier. How do you see that trajectory now? Is there upside from there? We haven't seen a backlog increase yet, but does this change the way you look at that five-year outlook?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Doug as we think about this, given the President's budget request for '23 of $773 billion did not anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So we were seeing an increase in defense spending before any of this nonsense in Ukraine with the Russians. So I think, again, the trajectory is better than what we had expected. I mean I will go back two years when the merger first occurred, we thought defense spending was going to be flat to up slightly. And I think everybody recognizes the need for modernization and the need to prepare for -- to deter these folks in a more robust fashion. So clearly, there's going to be upward pressure on sales guidance, but again, you probably won't see any of that until '23 or '24. But as we understand what the implications are of the new defense budget, what we see in terms of the plus-ups as they go through the process on the '23 NDAA, I think, again, we'll have an opportunity to update everybody later this year on our thinking around kind of that three to five year outlook for defense.
Douglas Harned:
But your sense is that there could potentially be some upside there as we look in the outer years?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, absolutely. If you look at just the research and development in the budget, that's up 11% versus what was in the '22 budget. So clearly, there is going to be more spending than what we had anticipated, and importantly, it's in those programs like space and some of the other advanced missions that we have an outsized share of.
Douglas Harned:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Noah Poponak:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Neil, could you spend a minute on the progression of the margin through the year at the other segments, the way you did at Collins? Because it looks like RIS is fairly steady through the year, but then RMD mathematically needs a pretty big step up to get into the 150 to 200. It looks like a lot sequentially. So I'm assuming that's back-end loaded, but the more back-end loaded, the higher it has to be. And then at Pratt, I assume or clearly, you'll have different mix OE versus aftermarket as you move through the year, but the guidance implies that margin steps down, and I assume that mix change is also back-end loaded. So just be helpful to hear from you on how we should expect those to change as you move through the year?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Noah. Let me start with RMD. As I said earlier, the 11% in the first quarter we see as the low point of the year. And in order to get to our full-year guide, you're right, we have to be in the 13% to 14% margin range, and that business has been there before. That will come on the back of improved mix. It will also come with productivity realization as we get later in the year and these milestones get realized. So I would expect to see sequential increases in the margin at RMD as we go throughout the year, with Q1 being the low point. I talked about Collins, but just to reiterate, Q1 benefited from the provisioning. I do expect SG&A in E&D to kick in a little bit higher plus we have substantial military growth that's profiled in the latter part of the year, and so that obviously comes with slightly lower margins. And you'll see that kind of come across throughout the quarters as we go ahead. At Pratt, the story really is about the mix of OE versus aftermarket. And as the OE volume continues to grow, particularly in the large commercial engine business, you should see a 250 basis point or so degradation in the margins as that negative engine margin picks up in the next two quarters, in particular. Typically, we see a larger aftermarket mix in the fourth quarter. And then lastly, I expect to see 20, 30 basis point incremental margin improvements in RIS as we go through the year, again, on better volume, better mix, productivity. We saw good productivity in the first quarter there, and I expect that to continue through the rest of the year.
Noah Poponak:
Very helpful, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Maugeri from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Michael Maugeri:
Hey, thank you. Good morning everyone.
Gregory Hayes:
Good morning.
Michael Maugeri:
Neil, following on a couple of the prior questions on the slower GTF deliveries at Pratt. With the supply chain issues, is it just Pratt or I think Greg might have mentioned something broader, is it affecting all of A320? And does that change your thinking at all on peak negative engine margin and separately breakeven cash flow on GTF?
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Mike. No, I don't see any change to our thinking around peak negative engine margin or our breakeven on the GTF. I would say that the supply chain issues that we've been talking about and we're seeing aside from the casting issue are more acute in the defense side of our businesses at this time. In particular, January and February of this quarter, this past quarter were particularly light. I think that was driven by our suppliers having a lot of absenteeism and an inability to put the overtime to recover, but we have seen that start to slowly recover in March and again in April. That has really affected Collins as well as RIS and RMD. We've seen that across the board there. At Pratt & Whitney, in the first quarter, in addition to the casting issue on the military side, we did see a delay in getting under contract for the next lots of F-135 engines. We do have a handshake and expect that to be done in the second quarter. So just timing within the year.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC. Your line is open.
Kenneth Herbert:
Hi, good morning. Thank you.
Gregory Hayes:
Thank you, Ken.
Kenneth Herbert:
Hey, Greg and Neil, I wanted to ask about China. The traffic data and events in China so far in April have not been encouraging. Has -- can you help us think about the full-year assumptions for international travel and sort of what we've seen in China so far this year? Has that changed the outlook specifically on the full-year for the aftermarket? Or how would you talk about the recovery in international travel and the risk in the back half of the year relative to what we were seeing so far in China in particular?
Gregory Hayes:
Yes. Ken, that's kind of an understatement about China. Obviously, I think China accounts for about 16% of global RPMs. A big chunk of that is their domestic market, which is down more than 80% because of the lockdowns that we've seen because of COVID. Obviously, there is an impact to the aftermarket, but we do expect that, that will recover. And we have seen that several times in the past where the Chinese lockdown their cities. They get passed away within 30 or 60 days and the traffic comes right back. So we don't expect any long-term impacts from this. I would tell you, the aftermarket recovery for wide-body international travels, we're still expecting that to recover to roughly 75% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. China accounts for a piece of that, but a relatively small piece of the international long haul, really what you're going to need to see is traffic picking up to Japan and Australia and Transatlantic throughout the course of the year, which we fully expect. I mean the bookings look very, very solid, and I think while it looks aggressive in terms of that kind of 75% kind of recovery, all indications are that that's exactly what's going to happen.
Neil Mitchill:
One thing we also will see as we go into the second quarter kind of to that point is, we have an engine center in Shanghai. And so at Pratt, in particular, you'll see relatively flat sequential aftermarket as that shop is currently shut down, but we expect to recover that this year. On the Collins side, sequentially, I think low single-digit type sequential growth. So still growth in aftermarket, but clearly the China market is a watch item. It's an important one for our narrow-body customers in particular.
Kenneth Herbert:
Great, thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Seth Seifman:
Okay, thanks very much and good morning. Greg, you've mentioned in the past that -- expressed some skepticism about Airbus going up to 70 or 75 and indicating that you didn't think that Boeing would really allow them to get to that market share level. When you spoke a little bit earlier today, it sounded like you saw it as more of a supply constraint issue in terms of Airbus getting up to that 70 to 75 per month level. Has your thinking on that topic and on what the market share split could be, has that thinking changed recently?
Gregory Hayes:
Seth, I would tell you, it is evolving. As we look at the backlog that Airbus has, if you want a slot to take an A320 delivery, you're talking about 2028 at current production rates. So there is pressure to move up to that 70 to 75. We're currently facilitized for rate 63, which is something we had agreed to with Airbus well before the pandemic. So I think again, there is pressure to take the rate up to 70 or 75, and I think Boeing will see its share, will continue to also increase production on the 737, but there is robust demand out there for narrow-body aircraft. And I think again the constraint will be supply chain at the end of the day can not just Pratt and Collins, but the entire supply chain support a rate of 75 a month in Talos and Hamburg, and then 40 or 50 a month for narrow-body at Boeing, the 737. So we'll see. All I would tell you is, we remain in lockstep in terms of what's going on over the next 18 to 24 months with both Boeing and Airbus on the narrow-body, and we're certainly able to meet those demands today, and we'll work with them. If the demand is there, we will find a way to meet it.
Seth Seifman:
Great, thanks very much.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen. Your line is open.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thanks so much for taking the call. So Greg, you mentioned 6% aftermarket price hike. You normally do that in October for January, so it hits all at once. But back in October, inflation wasn't quite the threat that it was now. Are you seeing -- were you seeing pushback on that price hike? And secondly, was that across the board or which areas were maybe a little higher than others? Thanks.
Gregory Hayes:
Yes, Cai, thanks for the question. So obviously, we saw inflation building and that price increase was a little bit stronger than what we would typically push for the catalog. I thought usually 4.5% or 5%. So we took the opportunity to raise prices. We do it obviously with keeping in mind in terms of where the demand signals are coming from the customer. And a big chunk of the aftermarket at both Pratt and Collins is on long-term agreements where you don't see that type of 6% increase. But on the time and material, overhaul and repair work that we do, that we will see the benefit. Obviously, inflation is much worse than what we expected it to be for the year. We were thinking 3% to 4%, not 8.5% like we saw last month, but our hope here is that inflation will moderate as we get to the end of the year. And come October, we'll take another look at the catalog, and if inflation is still there, we will have to address it through the catalog again.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thank you.
Gregory Hayes:
Thanks, Cai. All right. I think -- go ahead, Ludie.
Operator:
Yes, thank you. And we have reached the end of our Q&A session. I would like to hand the call back to Mr. Greg Hayes for the closing remarks. Thank you.
Gregory Hayes:
All right. Thanks, Ludie. Thanks all for listening today. As always, Jennifer and the IR team are available all day, answer any and all questions you might have. Thank you. Stay healthy, and we'll see you all soon. Take care. Bye.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lisa, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisitions, accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in the call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC's SEC filings, including its Form 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
All right. Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. Okay. 2021 was an important year for Raytheon Technologies. As we laid out our strategy at the beginning of last year, and that strategy, of course, is to drive top line growth, margin expansion and robust free cash flows through 2025 and beyond, while at the same time, continuing to invest in our businesses and returning significant capital to shareowners. Our continued focus on operational excellence and program execution, along with our industry-leading technologies, positions us well to continue to capitalize on the commercial aerospace recovery and to grow our defense franchises. As you saw from our press release this morning, we delivered another solid quarter with strong full year financial results, with both top and bottom line growth and $5 billion of free cash flow. That's more than double of what we delivered in 2020 on a pro forma basis. Our performance in 2021 gives us confidence in the long-term fundamentals of our businesses and that we're able to -- and that we're on track to deliver to the 2025 targets that we outlined last May at our investor conference. Before I turn to the highlights, let me first provide some comments on the current market environment. During the quarter, commercial air traffic remained resilient despite the Omicron variant, with global available seat miles, ASMs, growing about 1% sequentially in Q4. That's reflecting a continued recovery in air traffic despite the typical seasonal trends. Here, in the U.S., passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints also remained steady at about 1.9 million passengers per day. That's up almost 125% versus the fourth quarter of 2020, a remarkable recovery. On the defense side, we're pleased to see the President signed the bipartisan Defense Authorization bill into law at $740 billion. That's about $25 billion higher than the original Presidential request. And given the global threat environment, we continue to see strong demand internationally for our products and services. Our focused aerospace and defense portfolio, along with our $156 billion backlog gives us confidence in our ability to grow the business in 2022 and beyond. Okay. Turning to slide two, some highlights from the fourth quarter. As I said, we delivered strong financial performance in 2021. Organic sales grew 1%, which is in line with our expectations, while adjusted EPS and free cash flow for the year, were both above our initial expectations. And importantly, we saw margin expansion in all four of our businesses, with strong commercial aftermarket. Our defense backlog remained robust at over $63 billion, where RIS and RMD both ended the year with book-to-bill slightly above 1.0. In addition to several large awards earlier in the year, we also had several notable awards during the fourth quarter, including over $1.3 billion in classified bookings, plus over $670 million for the Electro-Optical Infrared awards at RIS, as well as $730 million in Standard Missile-2 production awards at RMD. We also remain focused on operational excellence and program execution to drive structural cost reduction and productivity in our operations. In 2021, we achieved about $760 million in incremental cost synergies from the RTX merger, bringing us over $1 billion since the completion of the merger in April of 2020. That meets our original merger cost synergy target two years ahead of schedule. And there's always, of course, more to come and more to do there. It's also worth noting that the Rockwell or the Collins Aerospace team achieved over $600 million in total Rockwell Collins synergies since the acquisition in November of 2018. They're meeting their commitment a year ahead of schedule despite the significant downturn in our commercial aerospace business. We also continue to fine-tune our portfolio during the year. As you know, we completed the acquisition of SEAKR Engineering and FlightAware, which will expand and enhance our capabilities in key growth areas. And we completed the divestitures of Forcepoint. And in December, we completed the sale of RIS' Global Training and Services business. On the capital allocation front, we returned $5.3 billion to shareowners in 2021 for a total of $7.4 billion since we closed on the merger. Well on track to the $20 billion-plus that we've committed to in the first four years after the merger. As you saw in December, our Board of Directors also authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program, positioning us to continue returning significant capital to shareowners, including at least $2.5 billion of repurchases that we expect to complete in 2022. In addition to our strong financial performance during the year, we also achieved several notable strategic and operational milestones that I'd like to highlight. Let me start with Collins Aerospace. The business completed more than 750 Lean events in 2021. By utilizing our best practices from our core operating system, the team was able to reduce labor content on the F-18 heat exchanger by over 30%, reducing costs and importantly, creating capacity to support increased demand. At Pratt, the team introduced the GTF Advantage engine, which reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by a total of 17% compared to the prior generation engines. It extends the GTS lead as the most efficient power plant for the A320neo family. The engine will also be compatible with 100% sustainable aviation fuels, supporting the aviation industry's goal to significantly reduce emissions in the coming decades. At both RIS and RMD, they achieved significant program milestones in the quarter ahead of schedule. Through strong program execution in RIS, the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System program completed delivery on the first LRIP units 60 days ahead of schedule. This achievement has given the Navy the confidence to certify JPALS on the CVN carrier and two amphibious ship classes. RMD team also successfully completed the initial integration of the SPY-6 radar and the USS Jack Lucas in the quarter. This is the first time power simultaneously applied to the entire radar system, completing a critical milestone for integration of the ship, its combat system and the SPY-6 radar. So with that, let me turn it over to Neil, and I'll come back at the end for a wrap up in Q&A. Neil?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 3. I'm pleased with how we finished the year as well as our performance in the quarter where we continue to see solid growth in organic sales, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. Sales of $17 billion were in line with our expectations and were up 4% organically versus prior year on an adjusted basis. Our performance was primarily driven by the continued recovery of domestic short-haul international air travel, partially offset by continued supply chain pressures and lower 787 OE volume. It's worth noting that the global training and services divestiture at RIS closed in early December, resulting in a sales headwind of about $100 million versus our prior outlook. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.08 was ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by commercial aftermarket strength at both Collins and Pratt as well as favorability in our effective tax rate. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.46 per share and included $0.62 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or non-recurring items. And finally, free cash flow of $2.2 billion was in line with our expectations and resulted in full year free cash flow of $5 billion, which was $500 million better than our expectations at the beginning of the year, primarily driven by higher net income and lower capex. With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on 2022. Jennifer?
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $4.9 billion in the quarter, up 13% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 47%, driven by a 59% increase in parts and repair, a 52% increase in provisioning and a 17% increase in modification and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 10%, driven by strength in parts and repair. Commercial OE sales were up 4% with strength in narrow-body, offsetting headwinds from lower 787 deliveries. And military sales were down 3% on another tough compare. Recall, Collins military sales were up 7% organically in the same period last year. The decline in the quarter was driven primarily by lower F-35 volume. Adjusted operating profit of $469 million was up $380 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales, more than offset higher E&D and SG&A expense. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $5.1 billion were up 14% on an adjusted basis and up 15% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery of the commercial aerospace industry. Commercial OE sales were up 32% by higher GTF deliveries within Pratt's large commercial engine business as well as general aviation and biz jet platforms at Pratt Canada. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 28% in the quarter with legacy large commercial engine shop visits up 30% and Pratt Canada shop visits up 37%. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 17%. In the military business, sales were down 6% as expected on another difficult compare. Recall, Pratt's military sales were up 18% in the same period last year. The decrease in the quarter was driven by lower spare sales on legacy programs. Adjusted operating profit of $162 million was up $57 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales volume more than offset lower military volume, higher SG&A, E&D and the impact of higher commercial OE volume. Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.9 billion were down 2% versus prior year on an adjusted basis and down 1% on an organic basis, reflecting four fewer workdays in the fourth quarter of 2021 versus the prior year. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $400 million was up $30 million versus prior year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies. RIS had $3.4 billion of bookings in the quarter resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.97 and a backlog of $18 billion. In addition to the significant bookings that Greg discussed, RIS also booked $227 million for the next generation Jammer mid-band program in the quarter. RIS book-to-bill for the year was 1.01. Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales was $3.9 billion, down 10% on an adjusted basis and down 8% on an organic basis, primarily driven by four fewer workdays in the quarter, as well as lower material receipts and expected declines in several international production contracts. Adjusted operating profit of $486 million was $93 million lower than the prior year, driven by lower net program efficiencies and lower sales volume. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $3.2 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.83 and backlog of $29 billion. In addition to the SM2 bookings Greg mentioned, RMD also booked $269 million for Evolved Seasparrow Missile Block 2. RMD's book-to-bill for the year was 1.02. Before moving on, I would also like to comment on the previously disclosed DOJ investigation into cost accounting matters, at legacy Raytheon's Company's former Integrated Defense Systems business or IDS, which is now part of RMD. As you will see in our upcoming 10-K filing, we have made progress in our internal investigation into the matter. And we now have determined that there is a probable risk of liabilities for damages, interest and penalties. In addition to the amount recorded in the first quarter of 2021 in connection with the finalization of purchase accounting, we recorded an incremental accrual in the amount of $147 million, during the fourth quarter relating to the matter, bringing our total reserve to approximately $290 million. We still do not currently believe the resolution of this matter will result in a material adverse impact to our financial condition, and we will continue to cooperate with the government's investigation. With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on the rest of the year.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. Before I get into the specifics of our '22 financial outlook, let me give you some perspective on how we are thinking about the environment as we look ahead. Let me start with the positives. Despite the impact of COVID variance, we expect the commercial aerospace recovery will continue into 2022 with continued growth in commercial aftermarket and narrow-body OE deliveries driven by further strength in domestic traffic and growth in international traffic. By the end of the year, we are assuming global RPMs recover to about 90% of 2019 levels with domestic travel recovering to be approximately in line with the 2019 levels and international travel recovering to between 75% and 80% of 2019 levels. The reopening of international borders, specifically in the Asia Pacific region and the related wide-body traffic will be a significant factor in the timing and extent of the related aftermarket recovery. Ultimately, the timing and trajectory of the overall recovery this year isn't likely to be linear and it will depend on our customers' fleet decisions and buying behavior. Looking longer term, we continue to expect commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels by the end of next year. On the defense side, we expect continued organic growth in 2022 as we deliver on our $63 billion backlog, continued bipartisan support for the fiscal 2022 defense budget, and international demand for our products and technologies. And across RTX, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin expansion, including $335 million of incremental RTX merger cost synergies during 2022. And this keeps us on track to achieve $1.5 billion in gross cost synergies by Q1 of 2024. On the challenges side, we anticipate that global supply chain and inflation pressures will continue and that 787 build rates will remain low. With respect to the supply chain, we anticipate that COVID-related labor disruptions will persist through the first half of the year, but will ease through the second half of the year. And as we've discussed, a significant portion of our material spend is under long-term agreements. That said, we are assuming a level of inflationary pressure across our businesses and our outlook that will be partially offset by productivity improvements. And of course, we're continuing to monitor the US and global tax environment and the current and potentially protracted continuing resolution. So, with that backdrop, let me tell you how this translates to our financial outlook for the year. Let's turn to slide nine. At the RTX level, we expect full year 2022 sales of between $68.5 billion and $69.5 billion. This represents organic growth of between 7% and 9% year-over-year. Keep in mind, the sale of RIS' global training and services businesses puts about $1 billion of sales headwind year-over-year as well as the associated profit. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of $4.60 to $4.80, up 8% to 12% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $6 billion. That's up about 20% versus 2021. It's important to note that this free cash flow outlook assumes that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which as we've said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion. It's also worth noting that if the legislation is not deferred, you would see about a $0.10 EPS benefit as well from the impacts of the R&D capitalization that would have components of our US taxable income. And as Greg mentioned, we expect to buy back at least $2.5 billion of RTX shares over the year, subject to market conditions. With that, let's move to slide 10 for the segment outlooks. At Collins, we expect full year sales to be up low double-digits and adjusted operating profit to grow between $650 million and $800 million versus last year. This is primarily driven by higher narrow-body OE deliveries and growth across all three commercial aftermarket channels, supporting both narrow and wide-body aircraft. And military sales at Collins are expected to be up low single-digit for the year. Turning to Pratt & Whitney, we see full year sales growing low double-digits versus prior year, principally driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits. Military sales at Pratt are expected to be down mid-single-digit, driven by lower F135 production inputs partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume. With respect to operating profit, we see Pratt's adjusted operating profit growing between $500 million and $600 million versus last year, primarily on higher aftermarket volume and partially offset by higher large commercial OE engine deliveries and lower military volumes. Turning to RIS. We expect full year sales to be down slightly versus prior year on a reported basis and to grow low single digit on an organic basis with strength coming from classified programs and production ramps in airborne ISR and EWS. And we expect year-over-year adjusted operating profit at RIS to be flat to up $50 million, driven by higher net program efficiencies and volume. At RMD, we see sales growing low single to mid-single digit, driven by growth across multiple programs and for adjusted operating profit to be up in the range of $150 million to $200 million versus prior year, driven by improved program performance and the volume. It's worth mentioning that we expect both RIS and RMD to again have a book-to-bill greater than 1.0 for the year. And finally, we expect intercompany sales wins to grow in line with total company sales. I will note that we've included in our outlook some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendices. So turning now to slide 11 for our 2022 adjusted EPS walk. Starting with the segments, we expect the segments to generate about $0.83 of EPS growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. From there, pension will be a headwind, primarily due to lower CAS recovery and higher discount rates. Our tax rate in 2022 is expected to be between 18.5% and 19% versus the 15.5% in 2021, primarily due to one-time tax benefits associated with the prior year optimization of our legal entity and operating structure that we realized in the third quarter that will not repeat. This will result in a $0.19 headwind. We expect corporate expenses to be a $0.06 headwind year-over-year due to higher investment related RTX synergy projects and digital transformation initiatives that are partially offset by lower LTAM spend. And finally, lower share count, interest and other items are expected to be a $0.07 tailwind. All of this brings us to our outlook range of $4.60 to $4.80 per share. Now turning to free cash flow on slide 12. We expect strong operational growth, along with lower restructuring to contribute about $1.5 billion of free cash flow growth in 2022. These will be partially offset by expected pension headwinds and higher cash taxes to get to our free cash flow outlook of about $6 billion. Again, this outlook assumes the legislation requiring RMD capitalization for tax purposes is deferred. And lastly, before turning it back to Greg, a couple of comments on the first quarter. With respect to sales, we expect sales to be up mid-single digit organically versus prior year, driven by the continued commercial aerospace recovery and partially offset by lower defense sales driven by continuing supply chain pressures and the impact of Omicron. And again, just to remind you, the prior year included Q1 sales of about $200 million as well as the associated profit for the divested RIS services business. On the adjusted EPS side, we see low double-digit to mid-teens growth in the quarter versus prior year. And for cash, we expect to see an outflow of about $500 million in the quarter due to typical seasonal factors in the timing of collections. So with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. We're on slide 13. So a lot of moving pieces as always. But I would tell you, we actually exited 2021 with really good momentum across the businesses. And we expect to make further progress on our priorities here as we enter into 2022. First and foremost, let me repeat that we're focused on keeping our employees safe, keeping our commercial customers flying and protecting the war fighter while they defend our country and allies and of course, supporting our suppliers. We're also going to continue to invest in differentiated technology and innovation to maintain our industry-leading positions, which will drive growth over the long term, and of course, to capitalize on our growing end markets. At the same time, our leadership team is making significant progress to reduce structural costs, drive operational efficiency through our core operating system and to deliver on our synergy commitments. Finally, we remain disciplined with capital allocation. We have a very strong balance sheet, along with our cash-generating capabilities supports investments in our businesses and our commitment to returning capital to shareowners, including at least $20 billion in the first four years following the merger, as I said earlier. I'm confident in our ability to deliver both top and bottom line growth and margin expansion across our businesses this year, as we continue to leverage the growth opportunities that are in front of us. So with that, let's turn it over to Lisa, and we'll take whatever questions you might have. Thank you.
Operator:
In the interest of time and to allow for broader participation, you’re asked to limit yourself to one question. The first question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning, Greg, Neil, Jennifer. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
So free cash flow is guided to $6 billion this year, up from $5 billion last year and 20% growth. And you have a pretty consistent cadence of free cash flow growth for your 2025 target of $10 billion despite pension headwind of 1.3. Maybe if you could get into the different buckets and different impacts as we get into that 2025 $10 billion free cash flow number.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Sheila. Good morning. It's Neil here. As we think about the walk from where we are today to 2025, as we've said before, the majority of that is going to come from the operating profit growth that we'll see in the segments as we continue to go through the recovery here, probably a little bit north of $7 billion. If you were to strike 2021 as a starting point, you'll see there's $1.6 billion of pension headwind. And we'll probably have somewhere in the range of $600 million to $700 million of CapEx headwind. And that will be partially offset by a couple of hundred million of corporate and other items. So still see a clear path to the $10 billion of free cash flow, as we get into 2025, and we get through the recovery here. Feeling very good about that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Rob.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
This might be a question for Greg. I was wondering if you could maybe give us some more color on the supply chain situation. Have things got any worse since what you experienced in Q4? And then in relation to that, how are you getting all the supply chain in place for the A320 ramp that's planned for this year? Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Rob, that's a really good question. And I think RTX, just like many other large companies, has seen its share of supply disruptions, I would say. And it's really -- I would bucket it in two different ways. One is, in our supply chain, we see some labor shortages with skilled positions. And I can think of probably the most important one right now is in the casting -- castings, where we see a shortage of welders. And so, we're working with our suppliers to make sure that we can get demand or get supplied back up to demand. It's not going to happen here in the first quarter. We see that we're going to have a slow Q1, as Neil said, primarily at Pratt, that will also impact a little bit at Collins. We're also seeing, I think, as we talked about, a slowdown of receipts on the defense side of the business. We saw that in December. That's gotten a little bit worse than what we had seen at the end of the third quarter. And I would say, again, there's two pieces to that. Obviously, the Omicron variant had a significant impact on our -- not just our workforce, but our suppliers' workforce. But also, again, the labor shortage that we're seeing as well as the need to continue to drive wages up to attract talent. Just to put it in perspective, we've got about 13,000 product suppliers. We are monitoring the supply chain on a daily basis. There are less than 100, I would say out there that are giving us real concern, but it only takes one to make us miss a shipment. So we're actively trying to manage this. I think we're doing a good job, but we certainly will see some impact here in the first quarter from supply chain.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, David.
David Strauss:
Greg, Neil, maybe could you touch on the moving pieces of the implied incremental margins at Collins and Pratt looks like Collins kind of in the mid-30s, Pratt in the mid-20s. I guess, on Collins, what you're assuming for E&D and kind of what's hitting the range that we might have expected? And then on Pratt, the negative engine margin that you're expecting in 2022 relative to 2021? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you, David. Let me start with Collins. So you're right on the incrementals. We're expecting incrementals in that mid-30s percent range as we go through the year. Recall, we called out a few onetime items last year that probably helped margins by about 50 basis points. So good strong incrementals there. Just hitting on a few of the components of our Collins outlook. We do expect that our commercial OE will be up sort of high teens on the sales line. Commercial aftermarket, up around 20% or so, probably a little north of that. And military, up low single digits. As you think about Pratt, same thing. The incremental is there in the mid-20s, as you expect -- you said. Commercial OE, expected to be up between 20% and 25%. On the aftermarket side, also between 20% and 25%. And as we said, military, down mid-single digits. So again, great growth at Pratt. We do expect to ship probably about 200 more engines. And as I think about the AEM headwind, it's in the range of $100 million to $150 million. So, we're seeing good absorption as we ramp that volume back up over the course of 2022. And as Greg said, the supply chain issues at Pratt with respect to castings could result in a little bit of lower deliveries here in the first quarter, but we do expect that full year, we will be up a couple of hundred engines.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Good morning everyone.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Could you spend another minute on sort of how you built the aerospace aftermarket forecast for the year and how you expect it to progress through the year? Obviously, when Omicron lets up, there's a huge question mark and there's a wide range of possible outcomes of where travel could be exiting the year versus starting the year. And Neil last year, you kind of framed what you were expecting for the broader ecosystem and then how you layered your own forecast on top of that and the degree of conservatism or lack thereof. So, it'd be helpful to hear that from you again today.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, Noah. Let me give that a shot here. So let me start with the macro outlook here. So we talked about our RPM and ASM assumptions as you get to the end of the year, but a little bit of color on the way we see that coming through the year. So if you think about -- I'll start with ASM sequentially, sort of low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter, hitting the mid-30s Q1 to Q2. Mid-teens, Q2 to Q3. And then actually down seasonally in the fourth quarter, mid-single digit, call it. So the crux of our outlook as we think about the year really depends on the wide-body recovery. Last year, I would say about 75% of our aftermarket improvement and the improvement that we saw in ASMs came from domestic narrow-body. And this year, we're expecting about 80% of the growth to be driven by international long-haul and about 60% of that driven by long-haul routes. So it's going to be a really important factor as we look at the year. If you think about how that translates to the aftermarket sales assumptions, the compares are getting a little bit more difficult sequentially given where we ended the fourth quarter. I would expect Collins to be in the low to mid-single digits sequentially on the aftermarket growth throughout the course of the year. Pratt, we'll see down in the mid-single -- mid- to high single range here in the first quarter as we come off a traditionally high fourth quarter, and that goes to mid -- up -- I'll call it, high single-digits second quarter and mid-single digits through the rest of the year. So hopefully, that helps give you a little color on what we're seeing. Greg, anything you want to add?
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Noah, I think that the most important part just to reinforce what Neil said is really the -- our forecast for the aftermarket really is dependent upon a wide-body recovery. And as you know, that is primarily a Pacific reopening. So you have to see China reopening. We have to see all of the countries in the Pacific Rim start to reopen, which will allow traffic to recover. Your guess is as good as mine with the China zero COVID policy that they have, whether or not we'll see that here in the second quarter or the third quarter or the fourth quarter. Right now, we're assuming in the second quarter, we start to see it. And we'll hopefully see that kind of progression throughout the year, which will get us back on track to give wide-body back to 2019 levels, hopefully by the end of 2023.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Yes. Good morning, Greg, Neil, Jennifer. Hey, Greg, Maybe just switching over to defense. Could you maybe just give us a little bit of some of the things you're expecting for maybe on the international side, historically, Raytheon’s had a lot of international awards, what your expectations might be for a book-to-bill and if you're seeing any kind of increased input from international countries just given the rising tension? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Peter, it's a good question. And I think the answer is, obviously, we are seeing, I would say, opportunities for international sales. We just have to look to last week where we saw the drone attack in the UAE, which attacked some of their facilities. And of course, the tensions in Eastern Europe, the tensions in the South China Sea, all of those things are putting pressure on some of the defense spending over there. So I fully expect we're going to see some benefit from it. I would say, though, that should there be hostilities, whether it's in the Middle East or whether it's in the Asia Pacific region, you're not going to see an immediate benefit here because what you'll see is a reallocation of inventory that we already have out there with the services. But I fully expect we should see a recovery in the international defense maybe in the book-to-bill, well north of one as we move into 2022 and beyond. One of the biggest drivers, of course, will be LTAMs. And I think, again, that's probably a 2023 benefit. We'll start to see bookings then for LTAMs, which, of course, is the upgrade of the Patriot Missile Defense system. But that will be, again, a couple of years out.
Neil Mitchill:
Greg, maybe if I could just pile on a little bit, too. We do see some international Gem T awards at RMD. And as we look at the $29 billion backlog of RMD and the sales outlook that we put out there, which is low single-digit to mid-single-digit, think 3% to 4% or so year-over-year at RMD. We're confident that we have the backlog to continue to grow as we get through 2022.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning. So, I guess, a question for both of you. A key part of the story is operational improvement as we walk out over the next couple of years, right? That's going to be a big cash flow driver. And a big part of that is GTF. So, a question we've been fielding from investors and maybe you can give us some perspective on this, how can we feel better about the long-term contracts you've put in place to do maintenance on the GTF family of engines, where it seems like time on weighing and the hot section maybe hasn't has performed like we were hoping it would at first. Meaning, how can we feel good that those contracts are priced right be it that they're kind of long-term in nature?
Greg Hayes:
Let me take a shot at it, Ron, then I'll turn it over to the former CFO at Pratt to answer the actual contract question. Maybe just to put it in perspective, to-date, on the GTF program, we have had more than 12 million flight hours on that. In the last 12 months, dispatch reliability has been 99.96%. So, I know that we had a lot of teething problems back in 2016 and 2017, and we talked ad nauseam about all of those teething problems. And obviously, it impacted some of our time on wing, impacted some of those maintenance support contracts. But given where we are from a reliability standpoint today, those programs will start to generate positive cash flow coming up as the first full shop visits happen in the next year and beyond. And I actually feel pretty good about where we are on those contracts given the robustness of the current engine. Of course, in 2023, we're going to be delivering the advantage engine, which gives again better fuel burn and we think even more durability, which, again, will only benefit those aftermarket contracts.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes. Thanks, Greg, I'll just add that the average age of those airplanes is still under three. There's plenty of time. These are long-term contracts. We've made significant improvements. You mentioned the durability improvements, and we are factoring that in, obviously, as we look at those contracts. And I would tell you that as we perform warranty-type work under these contracts today, we've been reasonably conservative in our outlook and our bookings on that. So, we are confident that we're able to see the improvement fall through the bottom line as those major overhauls begin. And we're also confident that we're able to demonstrate significant efficiencies and fuel savings that come from that engine, and we're seeing that in the campaign activity that we're engaged in currently with the engine. So, feel well-positioned with the product and the GTF advantage, I think, only gets us in a better place as we go forward.
Ron Epstein:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with UBS.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Morning. Hey Greg, I was wondering if you could comment on the F-35 engine program progress through the course of 2021. And if you get to a better point towards the end in terms of resolving some of the issues that have been raised over the last 18 months, and importantly, as sort of the NDAA starts building momentum potentially towards opening the door to ATP and GE being second source in the later part of the decade?
Greg Hayes:
Okay, Myles, it's a good question. And I would just say a couple of things that -- a couple of points I would make. First of all, we did make good progress on OEM deliveries last year. We were on contract as we exited the year for F1-35 deliveries. And we also made good progress, I would tell you, in the shops in terms of supporting the overhauls. I think we had about 80 overhauls of the power modules last year, which is double what we saw in 2020. That number is going to probably double again this year. So again, we feel pretty good about the engine where it is today. Obviously, I think everybody that follows the program understands that you're going to need more power on that engine. You're going to need better fuel efficiency in that engine. And there are two different -- there are two choices, I think, in front of the services today. One is to do an upgrade of the current engine. We call that the EEP program, which is an enhanced version of the F1-35 or you could see a whole new engine, which would be the adaptive engine that both GE and Pratt are currently testing. Of course, those engines are years away. We're talking late in this decade before you would ever see those on the aircraft. Frankly, what we think is, from a risk standpoint, a single-engine fighter, an upgrade of the current engine was probably the most cost effective, lowest risk solution. And again, I think that's something that we're working with the customer on. We think that is a much lower cost than the adaptive engines that we're developing. And the adaptive engines are really targeted for sixth-gen fighter, which again will probably not be fielded until the end of this decade. So again, we've got options. We're working with the customer. The first and most important thing, of course, is to keep the engines that we've got out there flying. And so we're supporting the folks out in the shops around the world making sure that that happens and also continuing to drive OEM productions as we mature in the program.
Myles Walton:
Thanks Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Maugeri with Wolfe Research.
Mike Maugeri:
Hey, good morning. Thank you. Neil, on your cash flow guide, can you break your bridge between 2021 and 2022 down a bit further? Specifically, I’m curious to understand the $1.4 billion figure for operational growth in CapEx. If you can add some more color around working capital as well? Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, sure. So a couple of comments there. The first thing is if you look at our segment profit guide at the midpoint, that's about $1.4 billion. So think about that being the major driver of that piece of our cash flow walk. And you'll see from our guidance about $400 million or so of capital expenditure headwind year-over-year. So the net of that. That would imply a few hundred million dollars of working capital improvement. I think that remains to be determined as we see the year play out. So that will either turn into higher segment profit. As we get later into the year, if we are able to achieve the higher end of our range, and in particular, given the supply chain issues, we could see a little bit of working capital pressure as we bring inventory in a little bit sooner. And again, the timing of that profit recognition and the timing of collections will all play out in the fourth quarter. But I would characterize those as the three key elements of that piece of our cash walk.
Mike Maugeri:
Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Neil Mitchill:
Hey, Kristine.
Greg Hayes:
Hey, Kristine.
Kristine Liwag:
Greg, Neil, Jennifer, if we continue to see raw material and labor inflation at elevated levels for longer, how should we think about potential impact on margins? How much will you be able to pass-through with your contracts? And how much would the businesses have to absorb?
Greg Hayes:
So let me start here. First of all, we have seen inflation, obviously, I think, like everybody else. It has been higher than what we expected, I would say, towards the end of last year. As we think about 2022, we've probably got about $150 million of, I would say, price pressure from unexpected inflation in the supply chain. Now typically, we entered the year, and we'll see about $200 million or so of pricing pressure that we go out and we work to alleviate. I mean, the whole goal here is to keep input costs flat year-over-year. So we go out, we work cost reduction. This year, we got a little more work to do. That $150 million of inflation impact is baked into the guidance that Neil took you all through before. And it's something we're keeping an eye on. The labor inflation, obviously, is also a little trouble. We're seeing it in our own shops. The good news is most of that, we can price it on the government side and pass that along to our customers. But again, there will be pressure. And what we have to do, of course, is figure out ways to continue to reduce costs. That's why we've got the core operating system to let us go out and find efficiencies in the factories so that we can get productivity to offset the continued pressure on wages. But again, our hope here is that we're going to see inflation start to slow down here by the back half of this year. And we'll have to keep an eye on it. And again, I think it's everybody's concern across the country right now when you see 7% inflation, that's a big headline. And we've got to keep after it.
Kristine Liwag:
Thank you for the color, guys.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Kristine.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.
Robert Spingarn:
Greg, last week, Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, was talking about hypersonic strategy and suggesting that maybe because our targets are different than China is we need to rethink the strategy, boost glide versus air breathing. And I wanted to ask you your thoughts on this and how this might change the dynamic between Lockheed on the Boost Glide side and Raytheon on the cruise missile side?
Greg Hayes:
Yes, that's -- that is a great question, and one I think that we're all wrestling with right now. And I would tell you there is – I would say, several different markets here. Obviously, the Boost Glide is an interesting market as we saw the Chinese demonstrate that capability. We've also -- of course, we've demonstrated our capability to launch a air breathing, which is the hypersonic missile that we did the test on late last year. I think both of those technologies are going to be funded going forward. I think most importantly, however, is what are going to be the defensive systems against hypersonics. And again, I think those are the things that will provide us the biggest opportunity, whether that's going to be directed energy, some anti-hypersonic glide vehicles things that we're working on. There's a lot of money being devoted to this. Unfortunately, most of it, as you can imagine, is classified. We really can't go into what those individual technologies are. But I would tell you that, any defense would be a layered defense where you'd be using ground-based effectors, you'd be using ship-based effectors as well as potentially directed energy. And we're going to continue to work on that with the Air Force this year. And we'll hopefully have some interesting opportunities as the year unfolds.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. And just a quick one for Neil, if I'm still here. Neil, I was wondering if you could clarify, maybe I didn't catch it. If there's a full year CR, what would the sensitivity be in the guidance?
Neil Mitchill:
That's a good question. I didn't put that out there. But couple of pieces here. First, that will expire or set to expire February 18 of this quarter. It will see a lot of impact through the first quarter, if that were to extend through March 31, maybe $50 million to $100 million, $150 million of sales. If it were to persist through the full year, I would see probably between $500 million and $600 million of sales headwind. So I think that underscores the importance of us getting the continuing resolution behind the country. But, yes, that's how I would size it up looking at it today. And I would say that would be relatively evenly spread across our businesses, frankly. Each one of them will have some headwind as it relates to a continuing resolution that persists through the year.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. Thanks so much. So there's a fair amount of debate on the profile of recovery in deliveries and production of the 737 and the 787. Could you tell us approximately where your rates are today and the type of profile you're looking for in 2022 and what you've baked into your 2022 guide?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Cai. Good morning. Let me give you a couple of thoughts there. I don't want to get ahead of Airbus and Boeing, obviously, but let me start with the 737. Obviously, we ended the year sort of in the high teens per month range. We are aligned with Boeing in terms of that growing to that rate 31 in the second half of the year. So I'll leave it at that for now, but we do see obviously growth there in the back half of the year and it kind of gradually grows through the first half. On the 787, as we talked about it last call, we had -- we were shipping very, very little, if any, on the 787. We ended the year in the, call it, low single-digit per month shipset rate. We are anticipating that same type of rate through 2022. Because of inventory that is in the channel, I think a good estimate would be about two per month as you think about the full year for 2022.
Cai von Rumohr:
Thank you very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey. Thanks very much and good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Seth.
Neil Mitchill:
Hi, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
I guess, Neil, when you spoke, I think, back in November and kind of talked about the outlook for the segments for the year, did that change very much? I'm thinking specifically about the progression of the aftermarket recovery? Did that change very much as a result of the emergence of Omicron? And, I guess, is there any kind of information or new information kind of underlying a level of confidence that you have about the international travel recovery this year?
Neil Mitchill:
Yes. Let me start with the first point. So a couple of things have definitely changed since that early November time frame. And I'd say, the first was the variant Omicron clearly came on quick. We hope that it will go away quickly as well. But I think we've factored some of that thinking into the first quarter. As I look at today's outlook relative to where we were thinking a few months ago, we see a little bit slower recovery in the first quarter than we were thinking, but we do see that getting back to where sort of the line we were projecting from Q2 and beyond. So we'll see how that plays out. Again, I said last year, a lot of this depends on airlines getting ready for the summer travel season. So, we are expecting to see an uptick in their behavior for provisioning and parts here in March and April, which sort of gets to your second question there in terms of the support underlying -- the reopening of international borders. We have seen reopenings of some international borders in the fourth quarter, and that's encouraging, in particular, Europe. And as Greg mentioned earlier, the key, I think to us realizing what we've laid out here today is Asia Pacific opening up and the long-haul routes coming back in earnest as we get towards the end of the year here. So we'll have to wait and see. But certainly, sometime in the March and April timeframe is when we would expect to see an uptick that would drive the ranges that we're predicting here for Collins in particular.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks Neil.
Neil Mitchill:
Welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
Matt Akers:
Hey good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could just comment on the new Ashville facility. And I guess, specifically, how far are we sort of through the investment there? And how do you think of sort of the ramp-up of production at that facility?
Neil Mitchill:
Make great progress there in Asheville. The building is up. And when I was looking at it the other day, actually I have visibility to that via webcam. And it's in great shape, so we're on track. Some of the CapEx favorability that we saw here in 2021 is the deferral of some of that spend into 2022. But I'd say, we're on-track there to stand up that facility and get the production going as we had planned to do. So it's really a good shape.
Matt Akers:
Great. Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Doug Harned:
I'd like to go back to the geared turbofan and the aftermarket outlook. You've been delivering your turbofans now for about six years. And if we go back to the earlier days of the design, one of the big advantages was going to be because of the year, you have fewer stages and in principle, lower maintenance costs. So that -- the thinking was, as I understood it back then, that could lead to higher margins in the aftermarket as you go forward. First, do you still see it that way? And if so, when should we see margins in the aftermarket for the GTF gets to the levels we've seen on the V2500?
Greg Hayes:
Doug, that's an interesting question. Obviously, when we originally -- the original design of GTF, there were a couple of different priorities. One, obviously, was fuel burn. That was a 15% benefit over the V2500. We clearly achieved that. What we did not achieve, I would say, in the first few years of delivery was a robust engine. We had teething problems, as we've talked about, primarily around the combustor and primarily in some of the more difficult environment environments like India. And so of course, that impacted the aftermarket as we brought those engines back sometimes within a year or two of shipping them to update the combustor. Right now, I would tell you the combustors there are lasting at least 10,000 hours now, which is good news. And we're starting to see that already in these -- in the aftermarket contracts. As you said though -- as Neil said before, the average age is only about three years on these GTFs. So, we're not seeing the overhaul activity in a significant number yet, but we will in the coming two or three years. And I think you'll start to see margins improve in the aftermarket once we start going through and doing the heavier overhauls. Will they ever get to the same level of profitability as the V2500? Absolutely. It's just going to -- keep in mind, the V2500 has been out there for 30 years. It's not a brand-new engine. It's a very, very durable engine. And it's just it will take us time to get the number of engines out there to drive the kind of efficiencies in the aftermarket. But we fully expect. It's a great design. It gives the fuel burn, and it does, to your earlier point, have fewer moving parts, right about 1,500 fewer blades than the competing engines and that should and will reduce costs over the long-term.
Doug Harned:
Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Lisa and thanks everybody for listening in today. Again, a lot of moving pieces, but we have high confidence in the outlook that Neil and Jennifer took you guys through. Look forward to hearing from many of you in the coming days and weeks. Jennifer and the team will be, of course, available all day today and tomorrow to take whatever follow-up questions you might have. Have a wonderful day and stay healthy. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Third Quarter 2021 earnings conference call. My name is Mistie, and I will be your Operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer, and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet. And there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies website at www.rtx.com Please note except where otherwise noted, the Company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments, and net non-recurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The Company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our TCS SEC filings including its Form 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statement. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Misty, and good morning, everyone. As you saw from our press release this morning, we delivered another solid quarter. A few comments before I turn to the highlights. We continue to feel good about the long-term fundamentals of our business and our ability to drive growth and margin expansion over the next several years. During the quarter, we made great progress on cost reduction, driving operational excellence through our businesses, and achieved some notable milestones which we'll touch on in just a moment. From a market perspective, commercial air traffic continued to recover despite some regional impacts from the COVID variance. The global ASMs are available, SEC miles estimated to have grown about 30% sequentially in Q3. And here in the U.S. passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints averaged about 1.9 million travelers per day in Q3. That's up from about 1.6 million per day in Q2. International borders, as we know, are starting to reopen and that's another positive. And on the Defense side, Fiscal year '22 budget request was in line with our expectations. And as we've said, defense spending is nonpartisan, and we're encouraged to see Congress supporting plus ups to the president's budget that are also aligned with our -- to our business in our investments in new technologies. Overall, we continue to be cautiously optimistic on both the Commercial and Defense trends that we're seeing. Okay. Let's move to slide 2, some highlights from the quarter. Adjusted EPS exceeded our expectations, free cash flow was in line with what we expected. And we delivered another quarter of top and bottom line growth on both a year-over-year and a sequential basis. As we had capitalized on the commercial after-market recovery and our defense portfolio continues to grow. Based on our strong performance year-to-date, we are again increasing and tightening our adjusted EPS outlook for the year to $4.10 to $4.20 a share. That's up from our prior outlook of $3.85 to $4. Neil Mitchill will get you into the details on sales and free cash flow where we were also tightening our outlook in both areas. On the capital allocation front, we repurchased about $1 billion of RTX shares during the quarter, bringing our total for the year to $2 billion, which was our commitment that we talked about back in Q2. Before I turn it over to Neil, couple more details on our results. Let me cover some strategic and operational highlights for the quarter where we continue to execute on our key programs. Starting with strategic highlights, we announce the acquisition of FlightAware, which will become a significant accelerator for Collins connected ecosystem strategy, and enhances our capabilities in growth areas like aviation network services, digital solutions, and aerospace modernization. And we're organizing our business around optimizing these capabilities within Collins Aerospace. We also announced the acquisition of Seeker engineering, a leading provider of advanced Space Electronics Solutions. Seeker strengthens are offerings to solve our customers most complex problems by expanding our space-based capabilities with the integration of Blue Canyon, this also enhances our IRS competitiveness, and reliability of satellite bus hardware, and customized space electronics. At the same time, we continue to divest non-core businesses. During the quarter, we announced an agreement to divest of our global training and services business, which is part of RIS. On the operational side, the missiles and defense team and their industry partners successfully completed the first test of a scram jet powered hypersonic air-breathing weapon concept or HAWC DARPA and the U.S. Air Force, The HAWC successfully sustained hypersonic speeds, offering faster time on target and greater maneuverability. The successful test puts us on track to deliver a prototype system to the U.S. Department of Defense. And lastly at Pratt, the Columbus forge disk business continues to integrate critical operations to drive further quality performance and cost reduction. Utilizing our core operating system tools, the team in Columbus reduced the lead time of forgings by up to 35 days and reduced both cost and inventory. As you can see, driving operational excellence through our organization is a key to our success over the long term. With that, let me turn it over to Neil have you take you through the quarter in detail. Neil.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 3. I'm pleased with our performance in the quarter where we saw strong year-over-year sales growth, adjusted earnings growth, and free cash flow. Sales of 16.2 billion were up 10% organically versus prior year on an adjusted basis. Our performance was driven by the continued recovery of domestic and short-haul international air travel and continued growth in defense. That was partially offset by some supply chain pressures and lower 787 OE volume. And while we expect these headwinds to continue in the near-term, we only see this as a timing issue. Nonetheless, we remain focused on our cost actions and program execution to drive continued earnings and cash flow growth. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.26 was ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by Collins, Pratt and some corporate items. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.93 per share and included $0.33 of acquisition accounting adjustments, and net significant and/or non-recurring items. It's worth noting that both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share benefited from about $0.16 of lower tax expense related to previously disclosed actions we took to optimize the Company's legal entity and operating structure in the quarter. As well as pension-related benefit that was worth about $0.05. Free cash flow of $1.5 billion was in line with our expectations, keeping us on track for the full year. Before I hand it over to Jennifer, let me give you a little color on our synergy progress. During the quarter, we achieved about 165 million of incremental merger gross cost synergies. And given our strong performance, we are again increasing our 2021 target, and now expect to achieve over 700 million cost synergies this year. This will bring us to nearly $1 billion in cumulative gross cost synergies since the merger. And we're well on our way to meeting our $1.5 billion commitment. So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results.
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on slide 4. Sales were 4.6 billion in the quarter, up 7% on an adjusted basis, and up 9% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in the commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 38% driven by a 44% increase in parts and repair, a 43% increase in provisioning, and a 22% increase in modifications and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 4% roughly in line with our expectations. Commercial OE sales were down 3% with strength in narrow-body more than offset by lower wide body deliveries, primarily 787. And military sales were down 5% on an adjusted basis and down 1% organically on a tough compare. Recall, Collins military sales were up 8% in the same period last year. Adjusted operating profit of 480 million was up 407 million from the prior year. Higher commercial aftermarket sales, favorable mix, and synergy capture more than offset lower military volume. Looking ahead, due to expected supply chain pressures and 787 OE delivery headwinds, we now expect Collins full-year sales to be down mid-single-digit. However, given the continued recovery in the commercial aftermarket and the benefit of cost containment measures, we are increasing Collins full-year operating profit outlook to a new range of up 250 to 300 million versus 2020. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of 4.7 billion were up 25% on an adjusted basis, and up 35% on organic basis, primarily driven by the continued recovery of the commercial aerospace industry. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 56% in the quarter with legacy large commercial engine shop visit up 49% and Pratt Canada shop visits up 18%. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 17%. Commercial OE sales were up 22% driven by higher GTF deliveries within Pratt, large com -- business. The military business sales were up 2% on another tough compare. Recall, Pratt military sales were up 11% in the same period last year. Growth in the quarter was driven by a continued ramp in F135 sustainment, which was particularly offset through inputs on production and classified development programs. Adjusted operating profit of a 189 million was better than expected and was up 232 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales, more than offsets the impact of higher Commercial OE volume and higher SG&A and E&D. Looking ahead, due to the continued commercial aerospace recovery, we now expect Pratt's full-year sales to be up mid-single-digit. In addition, we are increasing Pratt's full-year operating profit outlook to a new range of flat to up 50 million versus 2020. Turning now to slide 6, RIS sales of 3.7 billion were in line with prior year results on an adjusted basis and down 1% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the timing of material input from suppliers. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of 391 million was in line with expectations and was up 41 million year-over-year on an adjusted basis, driven primarily by higher program efficiencies. RIS had 2.9 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-build of 0.4 as expected, and a backlog of 18.7 billion. Significant bookings included approximately 1 billion on classified programs. It's worth noting that we expect RIS full year book-to-bill to be greater than 1. Turning to RIS full-year outlook, due to the timing of material inputs from suppliers we now see RIS sales growing low single-digit. However, as a result of improved productivity, we continue to expect RIS 's operational -- operating profit to grow 150 million to 175 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020. Turning now to slide seven. RMD sales were 3.9 billion up 7% on an adjusted basis, and up 5% on an organic basis, driven by liquidations of pre -contract costs on an Amram award received in the quarter, and the expected ramp in our franchise. Adjusted operating profit of 490 million was in line with our expectations and was up 59 million versus the prior year primarily on higher sales volume. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately 3.9 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.02 and a backlog of 29.6 billion. Significant bookings in the quarter included AMRAAM Lot 35 for 570 million, a Patriot GEM-T order for 432 million, as well as several other notable awards. We also expect RMD's full-year book-to-bill to be greater than 1. We remain confident in our full-year outlook for RMD, with sales growing low to mid-single-digit and operating profit growing 50 to 75 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020. And now, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on the rest of the year.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. As we look ahead at the fourth quarter, we continue to be encouraged by the recovery of commercial air travel that has driven sequential aftermarket growth so far this year. However, the recovery of long-haul international traffic continues to lag expectations. And on the OE side, 787 build rates have come down more than we had expected, resulting in a significant impact to our top-line outlook for the year. Additionally, we aren't immune to the global supply chain pressures that are seeing some isolated impacts from the supply chain, primarily at Collins and RIS. However, we are working with our suppliers to mitigate these timing issues. And finally, while we anticipate the pending vaccine mandate may put further pressure on the supply chain in the near-term, higher vaccination rates will continue to build confidence in the safety of air travel going forward. With that backdrop, we're adjusting our sales outlook and now see full-year sales of about $65 billion slightly higher than the low end of our prior outlook. However, given the strong performance on cost control, synergy capture, and program execution, we are raising and tightening our adjusted EPS range to $4.10 to $4.20 per share, or up about $0.22 from the midpoint of our prior outlook. About $0.07 of the increase comes from the segments, Collins and Pratt and the remainder comes from improvements in corporate items. And on the cash side, we are also raising the low-end of our free cash flow outlook and now see free cash flow of approximately $5 billion for the full year. It's worth mentioning that we've included an updated outlook for the segments and some below the line items in the webcast appendix. With that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Neil. We're on slide nine and this is just kind of our view of the operating environment that we're facing going into 2022. We're not going to give specific guidance on 2020 to today, other than to say that the trends that we talked about in our May Investor Conference are proving to be pretty much on track with what we're seeing for next year. On the positive side, obviously, we expect the commercial aerospace recovery to continue and we feel good about our ability to grow our Defense franchises with our robust $65 billion backlog in the bipartisan support for the Fiscal 22 -- Fiscal year 22 budget. And of course, the international demand for our products and technologies continues to be strong. We're also laser-focused in driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin -- This is really a part of our core operating system roll out. Again, it gives us confidence that we can continue to grow the margins along the trajectory that we talked about. On the challenges side, no real surprises here. We anticipate the global supply chain pressure will continue, and that lower 787 build rates will carry into next year. Again, none of these are, I guess, new to us. We'll manage through them but something I think everybody is going to face in the industry. And of course, we are watching, monitoring if you will, the reopening of international borders. It all looks to be positive so far, but again, the COVID variance can change that in a hurry. Global tax and inflationary environment are also a concern of -- as we think about next year. And lastly, the impact of the COVID vaccine mandate. As you know, all federal contractors are required by December 8th to have all of our employees vaccinated. We certainly expect that there will be some disruption in both the supply chain and with our customers as a result of this, but we're going to work our way through it. All right. So before we get to the Q&A, let me just close by saying that I'm really pleased with our performance in the quarter. And I'm confident in the strength of our businesses as we look ahead. I want to reiterate, we remain focused on supporting our employees, customers, suppliers, and our communities, but our most important mission is keeping our employees safe. And finally, the strength of our Balance Sheet along with the cash-generating capabilities of our business will continue to provide us with financial flexibility to support investments in our business while still returning capital to shareowners, including our commitment to return at least $20 billion to shareowners in the first four years following the merger. With that Mistie, let's open it up for questions.
Operator:
At this time if you would like to ask a question, . Your first question comes from the line of Peter Arment with .
Peter Arment:
Good morning, Greg, Neil, Jennifer. Nice report. Hey, Greg, maybe you could just talk a little bit about the lost sales in Defense. Maybe how you're thinking about how that recovers and do we expect to get all that back in 2022 and maybe just any color about the supply chain challenges that you're seeing in Defense. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
So the lost sales on the Defense side, I would category -- 3 categories of issues there, 1, I think the pullout in Afghanistan, there's about $75 million impact to full-year revenue. Not huge, but meaningful. That will not recover obviously. Those are services that we were providing to the U.S Government or the Afghan Government prior to the pullout so 75 kind of goes away. You've got another probably 275 million of actual supply chain and people issues. And then by people issues, I mean, our -- the fact is we haven't been able to bring enough people on board to generate the revenue that we were expecting. That's that the other is actual supply chain pressure where we're not getting the material in. As you know, Peter, when we get the material in on the Defense side, we -- that gets billed right away to the customer and we recognize the revenue. So that piece will come back, the hiring piece will come back, the Afghanistan piece won't come back. So think about that 275 million. I don't expect -- we're not going to see it clearly in the fourth quarter, but we're not going to lose of next year. I can't tell you what quarter it's going to be in, but we'll get that back.
Peter Arment:
I appreciate all the color and thanks, Greg.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
David Strauss:
Greg, want to ask you a couple of questions on the error rates. I guess, first of all, on that. This year you talked about 161, are you actually going to hit that? On 77 where are you exactly today? Are you actually producing anything? And on A320, I know Airbus is talking about a big ramp up there, but if you look at their deliveries, it doesn't look like much is actually happening. Can you talk about where you are on A320 rates as well? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Go. All right, David. Let's just try to unpack that. Let's start with 737. We still believe Boeing is going to deliver those aircraft. Keep in mind for the first half of this year, we were not really delivering material to Boeing because they had it in their inventory. And so, we've just really started to ramp up the OE deliveries out of Collins again and keep in mind that's about $2.5 million roughly the ship set of revenue on 737. So we still fully expect Boeing will be taking production up there, on 737 here as they work through their backlog of undelivered aircraft and they go through the ramp-up process. As far as 787, that I think, is maybe the big question that we have right now. We are not shipping anything today on 787. We had expected to be delivering about five a month. And keep in mind that's a $10 million revenue per aircraft impact. So you think about the -- part of the problem at Collins in Q4 will be 787 deliveries. Now, again, they'll catch back up, but probably not this year. As it relates to the A-320, again, we -- I think they're probably building at a rate of what? 43 a month going up, we think a little bit next year. And continuing on towards goal, I believe of rate 75. Not clear we're going to get all the way to rate 75, but clearly we see demand strengthening for the A320. It's a great aircraft and it's got great performance characteristics. And keep in mind -- so the GTF -- today we've got just over 900 aircraft delivered. We've flown about 9.5 million hours. We've got a 99.9 dispatch reliability rate. The engine's great and we continue to see opportunities to grow our market position on the A320. But we don't see any shortage of demand in the near-term on the A320.
David Strauss:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hey, Ron.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning, Ron.
Ron Epstein:
Can you guys talk a little bit about the F35 re - engining? There has been a lot of, I guess, noise and discussion in the Defense community around the re - engining, the adaptive engine transition program. There has been some talk on it on the hill. Where are you guys on that? And how do you defend yourself against the GE offering?
Greg Hayes:
Okay, Ron. So let's go through that. So the adaptive engine GE and Pratt Whitney both have adaptive engines on test. We're going into -- we did ground tests this summer, we'll be doing flight test early next year. There is a thought of re-engineering the A, I'm sorry, the F-35 sometime in the 2027, 2028 time frame, which is extremely aggressive. The issue right now with the adaptive engine is it does not fit on the carrier-based version, the navy version, or the marine corps version, the shortlist . The Air Force would have to fund the entire development cost of the new engine. The other issue we've got with the adaptive venture, this is brand-new technology. Unlike the F135, which has millions of flight hours on it on the core. And you're talking about a single-engine fighter. I think it's going to be a tough part to think about putting a brand-new paper engine on the F-35 in the near-term. We have to talk to the about the enhanced engine offering of the 135, or we can upgrade the current F135 to provide more cooling and more thrust, and at a significantly lower cost than a brand-new centerline engine. So we're going to continue to work with the services on this. Again, I think it's the thought of a brand-new engine that's going to be a tough putt. It's not to say we're not going to look for ways to improve the current version. I think that's just a question of finding the funding because as the Block-4 gets introduced, we are going to need more cooling, we are going to need more thrust. But we have a plan to address that with the JPO.
Ron Epstein:
All right. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thank you so much for the time, Greg, Neil, and Jennifer. I want to maybe ask about the aftermarket. When we look at the two-year stack basis, Pratt aftermarket seems to be at 76% of 2019 levels. And Collins is that 66%, also at a lower growth rate. Can you talk about what's driving some of that growth differential? Is it just engines versus air-frame and overall program mix?
Neil Mitchill:
Sheila, let me start. Good morning. We're very pleased obviously with the aftermarket performance in the quarter. You saw Pratt up 56% year-over-year, 17% sequentially, and Collins at 38% also in line with our expectations sequentially almost 5% -- 4%. The difference, I think, comes down to the product mix of offerings and frankly as we've talked about, Collins has a fair share of wide-body and that hasn't yet recovered. As we all know, we do expect that to be the next growth driver for Collins as we get into next year and the international routes start to reopen.
Neil Mitchill:
On the Pratt side, very good shop visit induction. We saw a 49% year-over-year legacy shop visits come in. That's a little higher than the 30%, 35% that we thought we would see. So that upside probably about $75 million of sales is contributing to a full year $100-million increase in the Pratt outlook for the rest of this year. So pleased with the narrow-body recovery. As we look to fourth quarter, we'll continue to see shop visits at Pratt on the legacy side up year-over-year, probably in the neighborhood of 20%. Down a little bit sequentially, because we had some pull ahead into the third quarter, but still very solid there. We're well-positioned to support those inductions with parts and aftermarket. And then at Collins, same thing, we will continue to see the narrow body perform quite well. As Greg just talked about, 737 MAX stepping up. Probably by the middle of next year, we'll start to align the rates of our deliveries with Boeing's deliveries. and that will come with aftermarket as well, and then we'll see the wide-body.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thanks so much for the detail.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, thanks very much, and good morning everyone. Maybe I'll continue along the aftermarket line of questioning. The sequential growth at Collins was in line with the outlook, but I think Greg, you've spoken in September and I think, correctly or not, people came away with maybe a little bit more optimism. And was the pace of growth, did it kind of slow towards the end of the quarter? And then if you could give us at Collins, are you still looking for that mid-single-digit in the fourth quarter? Is there any kind of provisioning ahead of international travel returning in the U.S. that might help the way that domestic did earlier this year or any kind of update on how much the trends in Collins aftermarket improvement are being affected by both demand and supply issues?
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Let me -- so as Neil said, I think sequentially, Collins was up about 4%. We were expecting 5%. So it was a little bit slower than what we had expected. And I think I would attribute that mostly to that kind of slowdown in the middle of the summer. That we saw in August and September is the Delta variant of COVID. became more problematic. Again, as we closed out the quarter and as we move into October, we see that kind of low single-digit 4% -- 5% growth again, sequentially, that is in Q4. I think the real issue at Collins and Neil hit on this is their exposure to wide-body. That's 40% to 45% of their aftermarket. And we were hoping we were going to see a faster reopening of the international markets. They are reopening I would say at a rather tepid pace. And so that's really the governor I would tell you on Collins aftermarket growth. Narrow-body is all good. That's operating -- 320 fleet out there is operated about 80% of pre - COVID similar, it's like 70% on the V2500 fleet. that's all good. The real issue is wide-body and until we see a pro -- a reopening of the international routes, and right now we're seeing North Atlantic opening up, which is great, but we're still not seeing the Asia routes. And that is the thing that we really don't expect to see until 2023, which means you're not going to get a full recovery until probably the end of 2023 back to '19 levels at Collins.
Seth Seifman:
All right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Good morning, everybody.
Greg Hayes:
Morning, Noah.
Neil Mitchill:
Hi, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Neil, the updated full-year '21 guidance, I think has the margin -- the segment margin down sequentially in every segment. Just sort of wondering broadly how much of that is conservatism versus specific headwinds. And I guess in Collins in particular, the margin and the EBITDA dollars have to be down a decent amount in 4Q, even with revenues still up. Notwithstanding the headwinds you've cited here. If you could walk us through why that happens.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Thanks. Not conservatism, I don't believe. I think we've got this reasonably calibrated, but let me take you through each business unit. At Collins, if you are doing the math, which it looks like you've done Noah, you'll see margins in the 9% range in the fourth quarter. There were a couple items in the third quarter that helped Collins to the tune of about $0.02. We had a land sale, we also had a worker's comp adjustment that was favorable. Those two items, if you adjust form would get Collins' Third Quarter Ross in the neighborhood of 9%. So I think we see flattest margins for Collins between Q3 and Q4. Recall we've been talking about the ramp in R&D and some of the discretionary spend. We saw some of that happen in the third quarter. We'll see more of that in the fourth quarter. So that's the Collins story. At Pratt, it's a different story. The margins are sequentially down. That's largely on higher A320 neo. In fact, all of our GTF deliveries will be higher in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. So the negative engine margin headwind will persist. And then similarly, we'll see continued E& D and SG&A grow just a little bit. Both those companies, Collins and Pratt have done a really nice job to control the spending, but it was back and loaded as we positioned ourselves to adjust depending on how the year turned out. For RIS, we'll see margins around 10%. We should see continued productivity there. So no major changes there. And R&D, they will exit the year around 12%, pretty much in line with the third quarter. I'll point out for both RIS and RMD, there are four fewer days in the fourth quarter of this year than there were last year. And so that will give us a little bit of just headwind but of course, that's just timing.
Noah Poponak:
Given your comments on wide-body, and then what's happening with the A320, do we need to all be calibrated to -- with respect to the aerospace business margins, do we need to be calibrated to a non-linear path to the 2025 targets, I guess specifically next year, if wide-body is still a bit slow in the A320's ramping in Pratt?
Neil Mitchill:
Noah, I think we've been talking about this for almost 2 years now since the pandemic started, that the recovery is going to be, I'll call it lumpy, in fact, and that depends on the routes, the airlines including wide body is going to be a big piece of that. So I do think there will be a little lumpiness to the margin trajectory. Keep in mind that Greg just talked about the 787 that's a huge revenue contributor, not a big margin contributor, until you get into the aftermarket. So I think that's a fair assumption. We'll certainly be back here in January to give a little more color on what '22 looks like for us based on what we see during the fourth quarter.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Greg, a couple of months ago, you sounded perhaps a little bit skeptical about Airbus A320 ramp plans, but today you sound a bit happy about it. So I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate on your latest thoughts on this and whether you do feel more comfortable on the A320 now.
Greg Hayes:
Rob, I would tell you, I remain somewhat skeptical about rate 75. I think that's just natural. I think you'll hear it from the leasing companies out there that there's probably not demand unless it comes up of Boeing's. And again, as Airbus ramps up production, Boeing will ramp up production, question is, are we really going to see a market that will support? I call it, 50 737s and 75 A320s on a monthly basis or 125 airplanes a month. Again, it's -- it could happen. We'll be ready to support Airbus, our customer, if indeed it does. But I would tell you that our plans -- our 5-year plans do not anticipate getting to that kind of rate and by 2024, 2025. Again, we -- maybe we're being conservative. But again, we will support the customer if the demand is there.
Robert Stallard:
That's great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Doug.
Doug Harned:
I just -- I wanted to follow up on what Rob was talking about there because if you look at the A-320 family, I guess there are two things here. You said -- expressed some skepticism about the planned rate increase. Your CFM counterparts have also done that. Some in the customer community have. Boeing has. Everybody could have different motivations here. But when you go forward, they are -- they have holding fast to this production plan. How does this break? In other words, when do you or your counterparts say, okay, we will facilities for 70-a-month and make that investment. How does this process move forward?
Greg Hayes:
So keep in mind though the A320 family, it is a shared platform between CFM and Pratt & Whitney, and so our goal here is to make sure that we have the most profitable piece share of that business. And so again, we will continue to sell the engines where we think we can make the most money. But again, we're not going to chase every last engine campaign just to get to a higher rate. So we want to be disciplined on pricing. And again, if the demand is really there, it's -- we're out talking to customers every single day. If the demand is there, if Gilman Airbus are correct, we will get our fair share. Maybe it won't be 50%, maybe it will be 45%, maybe it will be 40%, but we'll get our fair share of whatever the ultimate demand is.
Doug Harned:
And if I can just follow on that because, one other thing that's going on right now is that Airbus deliveries are lagging production today and they probably a 130 plus airplanes parked and majority would be in the A-320 family. How does that affect you if you have this gap in deliveries and production in Airbus in terms of your deliveries of engines to them, and then you're planning for the next few quarters?
Neil Mitchill:
We do not foresee a gap in our delivery profile for the Airbus engines. We're continuing to produce, and, in fact, as I just said, in the fourth quarter I expect them to go up sequentially. As you know, Airbus has a huge backlog for the A320 and they are working with their customers as we are to make sure they take delivery. Not going to get into predicting how many they will deliver, but we don't foresee any gaps in our engine delivery profile.
Greg Hayes:
If you think about that though, Doug, we've got thousands of 7 or A320s in backlog and the fact that there's a few parked, that's just really the state of the airline industry today that some of the airlines looking for financing. But we don't see any interruption in the production rate. And as Neil said, it'll it will continue to go up both this year and next.
Doug Harned:
Okay. Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Myles Walton with UBS.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. Greg or Neil, I was wondering how are you quantifying the -- sort of risk around the vaccine mandate, booking your operation and in the supply chain. And also, I guess what's the bigger supply chain issue that's hitting you now? Is it people? Is it raw material? Is it the chips? And sort of what's the growing risk and what's the fading risk? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
So Myles, in that $275 million number we throughout before in terms of supply chain impact to the year, the people part of it is about a third. And so that's -- we are expecting some level of disruption, some level of challenge in the supply chain, just because they're -- keep in mind it's not just the prime contractors, but it's also all of our subcontractors that need to follow the mandate as well. So we are expecting some minor level of disruption. Now this is not huge in the grand scheme of $64.5 billion of revenue, but there will be some expected impact. And as we get closer to the deadline date of December 8th, this could pick up. So we're monitoring it, we're out talking to all of our key suppliers, we're talking to our customers, and we're just trying to stay on top of that. As far as shortages, people are a piece of it. But I would tell you there's -- it's also raw materials and while it we have good coverage under long-term agreements, we've seen lead times double on some of these raw materials. Chips, not a huge issue for us, I think again, we've got adequate supply, but it's always a watch item out there. The logistics, getting trucks to pick up material, getting material in is also proving to be a challenge. But looking at in the grand scheme of RTX. I just don't think that's -- there's going to be a meaningful or material impact on us for the year. We're managing it pretty well. We've got a robust team in supply chain and operations that are all over this, and we'll just -- we will keep managing through it.
Myles Walton:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of MIke Maugeri with Wolfe Research.
MIke Maugeri:
Hey, good morning, and thank you for the time. Neil, can you spend a little bit more time on cash flow and working capital through the end of the year. And then how that sets up for your working capital into next year. And then related on the Capex trim this year, is that pushing Capex or is that Capex going away?
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning. Thanks for the question. Let me just share a couple of thoughts around the free cash flow. We obviously took the range up the bottom end by $0.5 billion on a couple of things. One, improved profit and two, slightly lower capex as you pointed out. Year-to-date working capital has been an outflow. And that's pretty typical for us. So we're expecting the fourth quarter at least a billion-and-a-half of positive working capital. Again, a lot of that comes from the defense side of the business as we receive receipts from our customers, cash receipts that is. So we feel pretty good that we'll continue to see a net working capital and . It could be a little than the number we talked about at the beginning of year as we make sure we have an appropriate amount of buffer stock in some places for the issues Greg just talked about, but all-in-all really good progress. Just to give you a couple of thoughts, inventory has been a real bright spot, frankly. Collins, sequentially, their inventory was only up $30 million from Q3 or Q2 to Q3. And Pratt is in fact down nearly $100 million sequentially. So the teams are doing a fantastic job of managing inventory as we recover through this cycle. So I'm very happy with that. In terms of the timing of the Capex. we've got a big ramp in the fourth quarter, which is also typical for us. I do think that some of the savings we're seeing this year could slip into next year particularly, around our large structural projects. But the good news is we're completing those projects within budget so it's all kind of contained in our cash outlooks. I won't get into where we see free cash flow next year, but I do expect it to grow as we've talked about back at the Investor Day. And we'll be back in January with more details on how that's expected to unfold.
MIke Maugeri:
Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
Matt Akers:
Hey. Thanks. Good morning.
Neil Mitchill:
Good morning.
Matt Akers:
Just to comment a little bit about fuel prices and just put the uptick year-to-date. Is that starting to flow through it all into your customer behavior on a commercial side, either kind of flying some of the older aircrafts differently or maybe potential demand for new aircraft to kind of get the fuel efficiency savings? Is there anything you're seeing from your customers there?
Greg Hayes:
Matt, not really any impact except we have seen pricing going up. And I think if you're out buying a ticket today to fly any place, you're going to see the prices have gone up significantly somewhat from what we saw this summer. So while fuel prices are up, oil North of $80 a barrel, We believe that the airlines are being -- are able to pass along those higher fuel costs in the form of higher ticket prices. Obviously, if it's a prolonged increase, it does drive demand for next-generation aircraft. And right now, of course, there's a lot of aircraft out there still sitting on the ground, so I wouldn't expect there would be a near-term impact like that, but clearly, the airlines are raising prices to compensate for the higher fuel costs.
Matt Akers:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr with Cowen.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes. Thank you very much. Great results. So the F-35 peak production target, as you know, has been brought down and supply chain has emerged as a bigger issue recently, you mentioned 275. But maybe could you give us color on A, where the supply chain issues are the biggest worry. And secondly, what the F-35 rate impact does to you because clearly it looks like it does quite a bit to the prime.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Cai. So as we think about going down from roughly, what, 16 engines a month down to 13 engines a month, it will have an impact on Pratt. But again, it's a -- so I think about the 135, it's a small piece of our overall defense budget. It's not, when you're talking, let's call it $10 million in engine so you're going to lose 30 million a month. So you may lose 350, $360 million dollars of revenue going forward. Again, on the defense backlog of 65 billion is just not that significant. Obviously, it's a much more important to the prime on that parti -- you see those kinds of
Greg Hayes:
reductions. In terms of specifics on supply chain, I don't know that I could point to a single supplier that is -- other than -- again, it's components, it's raw materials. Think about aluminum prices going up, thinking of steel, all of the basic raw materials, lead times pushing out. And it's just harder to get material in the door on time. And we're also seeing, of course, labor shortages in our supply chain, which is also slowing down input. And I think that's going to be a continuing problem into next year. And the vaccine mandate, probably not going to help that. Although a vaccine mandate probably will help us on the commercial aerospace side if everybody gets vaccinated. So we're all for that.
Neil Mitchill:
Cai, let me just add one thing on F135 rates. Keep in mind that there's the production engines, but there's also power mods and pieces that Pratt makes, that support the aftermarket. And so you'll get 1, 1.5 equivalent engines per month on top of so production rate. So it'll be a little below the 16 a month and all of that has been calibrated in our long-term outlooks that we talked about earlier this year. So certainly a little bit lower on the production side, but not a full drop. So I just wanted to add that extra point there for you.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Terrific. And then on the supply chain, Greg, you mentioned raw materials. To what extent do you have raw material price escalators in your contracts?
Greg Hayes:
So typically, as you know, Cai, we've got protection from say, abnormal escalation in our contracts. So there's a dead-band in terms of inflation for most of the contracts. But we also, for most of those raw materials, we also have long-term supply agreements which cover us for the vast majority of the material. So we're not seeing the impact today of all of the, I would say, spot prices for materials that, say, you might otherwise be thinking about. Most of that's coming in under LTA. If these prices persist long term, then we will see So, an impact. And again, we'll extent -- to the extent that that is greater than these dead-bands will be able to pass that on and recover that through our contracts.
Neil Mitchill:
Put some numbers on that that, Cai, 90% of Pratt 's products are under LTA, probably 70% at Collins and so on average, we're about 80% protected. So again, as Greg said in the near-term, it's not a major issue for us.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Terrific. Thank you very much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
With Defense stable and Aerospace recovery coming along nicely, can you discuss your capital deployment priorities? And how are you thinking about the portfolio and M&A at this point in time?
Greg Hayes:
Sure. I think for us right now, there is no news and there is no change I would say in the focus on -- of the portfolio. We're going to continue to look for investments like Seakr Engineering and like FlightAware that can enhance the offerings that we already have. especially in software and in the space business. At the same time, we're going to continue to look at lower margin, lower growth businesses for divestiture. And nothing to announce today. We'll keep looking at the portfolio as we always do. As far as capital allocation, I think first and foremost, we're going to invest in E&D and Capex. And you should think about that number this year, it will be about $5 billion. Next year will probably be closer to $6 billion of investments between Capex and E &D. That is the first priority is to invest for the future of the business. At the same time, we'll continue to take up share buyback over the next couple of years. We've got to do another $6 billion of share buyback to hit that $20 billion target that we've got out there. And we fully expect to be able to do that, if not a little bit more. And then again, we've got a lot of flexibility with the Balance Sheet. We got $7.5 billion of cash to be in there at the end of the third quarter. And we've got plenty of liquidity if we decide we want to make some other investments. But for the time being, we're going to focus on generating cash, investing in E&D, investing in the business, and growing it.
Kristine Liwag:
Great. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you.
Operator:
I will now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Mistie and thank you, everyone for listening in. A good quarter, I hope everyone would agree. Neil and Jennifer and the team will be available all day today to take your questions. So thanks very much for listening and take care. Bye.
Neil Mitchill:
Bye.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Tabitha, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer, and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you, Tabitha, and good morning, everyone. I'm on Slide 2 of the deck for those of you following along. So a couple of months ago, we held our first Investor Day as Raytheon Technologies. And that day, we laid out our 2025 goals to deliver strong top-line growth, margin expansion, and at least $10 billion in free cash flow by 2025, all while continuing to invest in our businesses and return significant cash to our shareholders. We continue to be confident in the future because of our strong franchises, the resilient markets in which we operate, our innovative technologies and our relentless focus on operational excellence and cost reduction, which will drive margin expansion and strong cash flows into the future. And we continue to see encouraging trends across our market. Our confidence and our ability to achieve these targets remain strong. And as you saw at the end of May, the Department of Defense released the fiscal year ‘22 budget request, which was generally in line with our expectations with respect to our portfolio of products and the investments we’re making in differentiated technologies, including missile defense, space-to-base systems, next generation propulsion and hypersonics. Major RTX programs fared well overall as modernization funding remains at near historic highs. Requested funding for these programs is favorable to the overall do DoD modernization request, when compared to last year's plan for fiscal year ‘22. It's also worth noting that the overall classified funding request, which supports a significant part of our intelligence and space portfolio was also very well supported. So, I'd say we're well-positioned with the administration's priorities, driven by our innovative technologies and capabilities to address the evolving threat environment. This is demonstrated of course by the significant awards we received this quarter, which included over a $1 billion in classified bookings at RIS, and two important franchise wins at our missile and defense business, where we are awarded almost $2 billion for the long-range standoff weapon or LRSO, and $1.3 billion for the next generation interceptor.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 4, as you could expect, I'm pleased with where we landed for the quarter. We exceeded our expectations for both adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. Sales were $15.9 billion, which was at the high-end of our outlook range, and up 10% organically versus prior year on an adjusted pro forma basis, and up 4% sequentially. Our strong performance was driven by the momentum in commercial aerospace and continued growth in defense. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.03 was ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by commercial aftermarket and contract-related settlements at Collins, but also better than expected performance at Pratt RIS and RMD. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.69 per share, and included $0.34 of acquisition accounting adjustments, and net significant and/or non-recurring items. Free cash flow of $966 million exceeded our expectations, primarily due to the continuation of better than expected collections, and lower than expected capital expenditures.
Jennifer Reed:
Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 5, sales were $4.5 billion in the quarter up 6% on an adjusted basis, driven primarily by the recovery of the commercial aerospace industry, and up 11% on an organic basis. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 24% driven by 30% increase in parts and repair, a 16% increase in modifications and upgrades, and a 15% increase in provisioning. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 15% with growth in all three channels. Most notably, provisioning, which grew at 40% and parts and repair which grew 14%. Commercial OE sales were up 8% from the prior year, driven principally by the recovery of the commercial aerospace industry. Growth in narrow-body, regional and business jets was particularly offset by expected declines in wide-body sales. And military sales were down 7% on an adjusted basis to the prior year divestitures, and down 1% organically on a tough compare. Recall, Collins military sales were up 10% in the same period last year. Adjusted operating profit of $518 million was better than expected and was up $494 million from the prior year, driven primarily by higher commercial aftermarket and OE sales, the benefit of continued cost reduction actions, as well as favorable contract settlements that were worth about $50 million. Looking ahead, we continue to expect Collins full year sales to be down mid- to down low single digit, with higher expected commercial aftermarket volumes offsetting slightly less than expected OE deliveries. And given the favorable mix in the first-half of the year, the commercial recovery and the benefit of cost containment measures, we are increasing Collins full year operating profit outlook to a new range of up $100 million to $275 million versus prior year.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Jennifer. I’m on Slide 9, let me update you on how we see the current environment as we look to the second-half of the year. Starting with our commercial end markets, as I've discussed many times before, the shape of the commercial recovery remains critical to our outlook. That said, we are encouraged by the pace of the vaccine distribution, and continued signs of improving air travel demand in many domestic markets. However, we continue to see international air traffic and border reopenings recover slower than we had expected around the world. Keep in mind about 65% of 2019 air travel was international. While the first-half of the year was a little stronger than expected, and we're seeing signs of strong summer travel, we still need to see the reopening of international borders and the return of long haul routes to drive continued sequential aftermarket growth in the second-half of the year. Looking longer-term, we continue to expect commercial air traffic to return to 2019 levels by the end of 2023, with domestic and narrow-body fleets recovering before international and wide-body fleets. Moving to our defense end markets, we were pleased with what we saw in the fiscal year ‘22 defense budget requests. And we remain confident in our ability to grow our defense businesses as we look ahead. Shifting to operational excellence, as Greg mentioned, we're increasing our gross merger cost synergy target to $1.5 billion. And that's driven by higher savings from the corporate segment consolidations, as well as additional procurement and supply chain savings. At the same time, we're maintaining a focus on implementing our core operating system and driving structural cost reduction across the businesses. And finally, our financial flexibility is underpinned by our strong balance sheet which supports our investments in the business and our capital deployment commitments. So, let's turn to Slide 10, following our strong first-half, we're confident in our full year outlook. As Greg discussed, we're bringing up the low-end of our sales range by $500 million, and we're raising our adjusted earnings per share range to $3.85 to $4 per share, or up about $0.33 from the midpoint of our prior outlook. About half of the increase comes from the segments, primarily Collins, and the other half is from $0.13 of tax improvement and about $0.03 of lower corporate tax items. The $0.13 tax benefit is driven by the ongoing optimization of the company's legal and financing structure that we expect to realize discreetly in the third quarter. On the cash side, given the improved earnings outlook, we now expect free cash flow in the range of $4.5 billion to $5 billion for the year. And finally, it's worth mentioning that we've included an updated segment outlook, as well as an updated outlook for some of the below the line items in the webcast dependencies. With that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. So we're on the final slide here, Slide 11. I just want to reiterate our priorities for 2021, and again, no surprises here. These priorities remain the same that is first and foremost, to continue to support our employees, our customers, and our suppliers and communities during the pandemic, and to keep our employees safe. Our team is dedicated to solving our customers’ most complex problems by investing in differentiated technologies to capitalize on our strong franchises. At the same time, we're going to continue to execute on the integration and deliver the cost synergies, and we're committed to operational excellence to drive further structural cost reduction across all of our businesses. And finally, as Neil said, we have a very strong balance sheet, combined with our cash generating capabilities, provides financial flexibility to support investments in our business, and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders, including at least $20 billion to share owners in the first four years following the merger. So with that, let me go ahead and open it up for questions. Tabitha?
Operator:
First question comes from the line of Myles Walton with UBS.
Myles Walton:
Hey, good morning. Greg, you mentioned the GTF improvement that you're doing on the cost side, I was just curious. Could you talk about the losses that you're currently incurring per unit? How much of an improvement the cost reduction efforts are actually translating into unit costs? And then, maybe just as you look at the glide slope of losses on the engine, I think the prior comments were around peaking in 2025, and maybe size how far off you are from that peak? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, Myles. Thanks. I'll take this one. It's Neil. Good morning. First of all, if you think about the second quarter, the Pratt and Whitney large commercial engine business saw a very slight year-over-year decline in the OE operating profits. So we're making really good progress driving costs out of the engine in spite of much lower volumes than we had previously expected. So I feel good about that. As you look at the rest of the year, the team continues to drive down the cost curve. And we'll see slight cost improvement year-over-year, and again, in spite of some significant absorption headwind that we're dealing with relative to today's volumes versus what we were expecting pre-pandemic. Looking a little bit further out, we do continue to see some upward pressure on negative engine margin as the volumes increase. But we do see that as a positive sign, frankly, those are investments we're making in the future aftermarket, not going to get into quantifying that today. But we do see OE volumes going up in the 2025 time period. And the Pratt and Whitney team is aggressively working cost reduction actions to contain that negative engine margin at an appropriate level.
Operator:
Okay. Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning. How are you? Can you speak a bit about what you're thinking on mid-term growth on defense for the business? I mean, we saw in the quarter in particular, in Europe, foreign military sales for the industry did well, you guys did well with the order on the Patriot. But what do you think in mid-term for the defense business growth? So, if we step out a couple of years from now, not just next year, but if we go out maybe three, four years from now.
Greg Hayes:
I think it's pretty much what we had talked about back in May, Ron, which is, we're going to probably see low to mid-single digit organic growth across all the defense businesses. And, as you know, that's a mix of both U.S. defense spending as well as international. And obviously, on the international side, we've seen a little bit of an impact this year with the pandemic and the havoc that we’ve done on budgets. But at the same time, I think we continue to see strong backlog there. I mean, interestingly, in Switzerland, both F-35s and the Patriot defense system. So defense business internationally remains good. The backlog, as we said remain strong over $66 billion at the end of the quarter. So I think, we easily see that kind of 3% to 5% growth. Of the mid-term, I'll call it out through 2025, because who knows beyond that, but again, it's all about having the right technology for, I would say the next conflict, not the last conflict. And that means having space-based technologies, it means hypersonic weapons, it means cyber weapons. All of those things are going to enable us to help the warfighter in whatever that next conflict might be.
Ron Epstein:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning, guys. Thank you for the time. So the better outlook at Collins $225 million of it of the $275 million seems to be core productivity. How do we think about what drove that, given the top-line that really hasn't changed? And just on first-half margins, ex-contract settlements are about 9% and it implies second-half margins are 8%. So, why the contraction in the second-half? And how do we think about the improvement off that base?
Neil Mitchill:
Sheila, I'll start. First of all, I think on the Collins side, the way I would think about the second quarter profit was really driven by higher aftermarket drop through in part, I'd say substantially, it was due to that. We also did realize about $35 million of cost reduction, that dropped to the bottom line combined with about the same number from productivity and mix. So those are really the key drivers. The reason you're not seeing the overall sales go up for RTX is recall, we had a very, very broad range on the sales coming into the year, most of that range was attributed to aftermarket risk. We're halfway through the year now. We're de risking that. We've taken up the bottom and a $1 billion six months into the year. As you think about that $500 million increase, about $200 million of that I would attribute to Collins, a little bit less than that to Pratt and Whitney. And then we also are seeing some improvement on the bottom end, probably $30 million or so at RIS and the rest at RMD. So, as I look at the rest of the year, and you think about the margins, there's a couple things I just want to highlight for you. We had about $0.05 of I'd call it one-time items in the second quarter that I don't expect to repeat in the second-half of the year. $0.03 of those were at Collins those contract settlements that we called out. We also had about a penny in RIS related to a land sale, and then another penny within our RMD as well, given some pre-contract liquidations that went through driving about 70 basis points in margin expansion at RMD. So, as you think about the second-half of the year and Collins, in particular, probably $75 million to $100 million of EMD headwind in the second-half. Remember, we have been cautious in terms of the phasing of our discretionary spending. We'll see that ramp up, now that we're seeing the strength in the aftermarket. And we had furloughs in place for the first-half of the year at Collins. Those are now expired and so they'll have that incremental cost as we head into the second-half of the year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thanks so much.
Neil Mitchill:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Maybe just a follow-up on Sheila's question. You did see a very big sequential increase in the Collins aftermarket in Q2 compared to Q1. But it seems like you're a little bit cautious about extrapolating that going forward. So maybe, if you go into a little bit more color of what you actually saw in Q2, and why you're perhaps a little bit squishy about this continuing in the second-half?
Greg Hayes:
Excuse me, let me start there, Rob. I think, what surprised us in Q2 was how quickly the commercial aftermarket came back, especially in China and in the U.S. And you've heard us talk historically about expecting typically a six month delay from the time, we start seeing RPMs recover until the time we start seeing the aftermarket recover. The anomaly this year is the airlines are actually spending money ahead of the recovery in anticipation of a resurgence in demand, which was exactly what they have been seeing. And so the second quarter was much, much better, I think than anybody had expected going into this, especially as we think back to January is really putting the plans together for the year. So as we think about the back-half of the year, a lot of that pent-up demand we think has already been satisfied here in Q2. But I would also tell you the bigger part on Collins you got to remember its 40% to 45% of their aftermarket is wide-body. And that is the piece that we do not see recovering here in the back-half. Again, you'll see some reopenings, we hope some transatlantic routes reopen here in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. The transpacific is pretty well still shut down. The inner Asia, long haul routes are pretty well still shut down. And so that's kind of the governor, I would tell you on the back-half at Collins is the long haul wide-body marketplace. So again, strong domestic demand in the U.S., strong domestic demand in China, starting to see some of that in Europe now. But it's really the wide-body that is, I would say the overall governor on the back-half.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, and let me just add a couple of other points too. I think one of the things that was very notable in the second quarter was the 40% sequential growth and provisioning. So again, I think that's all the airlines getting ready for the expected increase in demand here in the second-half of the year. So that's a watch item as we kind of think about the back-half. On the aftermarket side and I'm talking Collins in particular, we had 15% sequential growth, as you pointed out, really strong growth here in the second quarter. As we look at the next two quarters, think more about 5% sequential growth. And again, that's off of a higher base here in the second quarter, I mean still ahead of what we were talking about back in January. So we're seeing that improvement, but that's sort of what we're calibrating in our forecasting as we look at things today.
Robert Stallard:
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning, everybody.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, just in the legacy Raytheon defense segment margins, those have improved, notably over the last few quarters. I understand you had the acquisition accounting reset there, we can see that they were higher in the past before that, and we can see what your future targets are. We're just wondering how linear that improvement can continue to be. The guidance implies they stepped down in the back-half versus the second quarter. But given what you're doing on the cost side, and given the steady recovery from the acquisition accounting input, and again, where that long-term target is, it's not clear to me why that would happen.
Neil Mitchill:
So Noah, let me try to share a little bit of perspective on that. First, I think as we think about the first-half of the year, the margins, both in RIS and RMD are strong, stronger than we had expected. You'll recall in the first quarter, I commented on a couple of items in RMD, we had the pension tailwind, we also had some international mix. We also here in the second quarter in RMD had some contracts that were awarded that resulted in us liquidating some costs that had accumulated on the balance sheet. Now we can recognize revenue and profit on that. So those couple of things our RMD are providing some uplift in the first-half of the year that we don't expect to repeat in the second-half of the year. And at RIS, I pointed out that asset sale that we had in the second quarter as well. If you take that out for RIS, you'll see margins in the back-half of the year that are fairly consistent with what we just saw in the second quarter. Now, from a productivity perspective, we are seeing improved productivity, and it's about $50 million each in those two segments. So where that goes, as the year continues, we will see that's a function of hundreds of the EACs being done each quarter, but we are seeing that improvement in the underlying productivity in a net favorable way. But, keep in mind at RMD, as we've talked about back at our Investor Day, you will see a mix shift in the products and the margins in the second-half of the year, as we get into more DoD FMS sales. So that's sort of the margin story. I mean, feds business, we’re very pleased with where they're heading, and still see longer-term the targets that we set out in May achieving those.
Noah Poponak:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland with Melius Research.
Carter Copeland:
Hey, good morning, gentlemen. Hey, Neil, just so I can make sure we're all speaking the same language here. When you refer to productivity across the two segments the $50 million, are you saying that the gross or excuse me, the net cumulative adjustments to the EACs were $50 million in each of those two segments?
Neil Mitchill:
On a year-over-year basis, yes. Net EAC year-over-year, yep.
Carter Copeland:
And is the big driver of that you up the synergy target, you realized it's some incremental cost out for all the reasons you stated earlier. And you're just putting that into the EACs and we're just getting that flowing into Q2, because that's when we sort of put in the plan.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, that's right. And, you're seeing sort of that play through and then the natural evolution of us getting further along the percent complete, since we had to reset that back in April of 2020. But that goodness, neck goodness, is dropping through in the form of EAC favorability. There's a lot of EACs that get done every quarter and so sort of that's the net effect of everything. But generally speaking, we're seeing good productivity in both RIS and RMDs businesses.
Carter Copeland:
Okay, great. Thank you for the clarification. I’ll stick to one.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.
Doug Harned:
Thank you. Good morning. When you talk about how you're looking at how you're modeling traffic trends, and I think you said, by the end of 2023 for traffic to be back. How do you think about your aftermarket recovery in Pratt and Collins with respect to that trend? In other words, how do you see those lining up on that traffic recovery? And perhaps in Collins, maybe if you could break it down by what I would say, traditional UTAS Collins avionics and interiors that would be really helpful.
Greg Hayes:
Well, I guess if you think about it, Doug, originally -- well, our forecast would say that we don't see a complete return of air traffic to pre-COVID levels until 2024. We had expected pretty much just to see as we have historically, that kind of six months delay from that with aftermarket recovery tracking RPM recovery. That's obviously not the way we've seen it play out this year, again, because people have been come back, there's a lot of pent-up demand. And I expect, we will see the aftermarket pretty much line on line with RPM growth here over the next couple of years, as we see that recovery. Again, I think the various pieces of the business will see I would say a different trajectory. If you think about the interiors business, for instance, while it's still up sequentially, a little bit, that business is still suffering from the dearth of wide-body departures. And so we're not seeing great traction in interiors. On the avionics front, though, we're seeing kind of a normal as expected recovery. The same with I would say some of the legacy UTAS businesses as you call them, our power and controls business, landing gear, wheels and brakes, all of those things recovering pretty much in line with what we're seeing for traffic. So again, if I think about the weakest link in the Collins business is probably interiors, but it will come back. We're convinced that we're going to see wide-body traffic recover, it’s just going to take some time. And again, that's a relatively high margin business, it's all customer furnished equipment. So that will play out into the recovery of the margins at Collins as well, probably into that ’23, ‘24 timeframe.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, let me add a little more color to, Greg, I agree with all that. Maybe making some comments about 2021 year what we see for the rest of the year. And I'll focus on ASMs. I mean, we saw about a 22% increase in ASMs from Q1 to Q2. And as I think about, going from Q2 to Q3, that's probably more in the 30%, 35% range. And that's starting to level out, call it mid-single digit 5% kind of growth from Q3 to Q4. Getting back to what Greg said, our aftermarket should start to trend with those ASMs, as we look further out through the recovery.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Good morning, everyone. Nice results. Hey, on working capital can you maybe just talk about the progress you're making on the kind of inventory levels at Collins and Pratt? I believe that's kind of the best opportunity for you to show gains going forward? And is there any kind of change here in your thinking on long-term goals, and then maybe just expectations around free cash flow cadence in the second-half? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah. Thanks, Peter. So actually, I'm very pleased with what we're doing on inventory in both Pratt and Collins. With the significant increase in sales that we're seeing a known ramp that we're facing, inventory levels have stayed pretty much in line. At the company level, up $50 million higher than we exited the first quarter with. And obviously, some work to do to drive that down in the back-half of the year. As we see the markets strengthen here, we'll be making sure that we have that inventory in place. Could there'll be a little bit of pressure on that? I suppose, but I'm very happy to see that we're still forecasting inventory turn improvements as we exit the year, and good focus on working capital management. As you think about our $4.5 billion to $5 billion of free cash flow at the midpoint of that range, I'd say that increment comes from the improved profit, if we're able to get to the higher end that will likely be on slightly improved CapEx. And we'll be watching the working capital, but we got the right focus on it. We want to make sure we're ready for the recovery, ready for our customers, but at the same time, not bringing in inventory that we don't need. In terms of calendarization for the second-half of the year, as I think about the third quarter profile, probably about the same increase in free cash flow that we saw from Q1 to Q2. So again, we're very happy with the collections that we're seeing. And, right now, that's sort of how I see third quarter playing out.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.
Kristine Liwag:
Hi, good morning, guys. Neil, earlier you mentioned the variable $75 million to $100 million EMD in Collins for the back-half of the year. Can you provide more details on what that is? And how much more flexibility you have in deferring to spend?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. That really is across the Collins portfolio. We did a very deep dive last year, as you probably expect on where we were spending our EMD, and especially through the pandemic, we wanted to make sure that we're focused on the next generation technologies where we can insert our upgrades into the existing Collins platforms. I'd say there's always flexibility around the allocation of those dollars to specific investments, but it's really in our interest to make sure that we spend the money. We want to make sure that we do not starve any of our businesses. I think we're a long ways from doing that. You've heard Steve Tim talk about investing about 6% of sales over the next several years. And I think our spending is about right, we're poised to invest about $6 billion of our own money between capital and EMD over the each of the next four years. So, there's some flexibility Kristine there, but I do know that we've got a long list of important projects that Collins team is aggressively working.
Kristine Liwag:
Thanks, Neil.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Neil, you highlighted the sequential ASK growth that you're expecting in Q3. I guess, in light of that, maybe talk about what you're seeing so far in terms of July on the aftermarket side? And then Greg, since the Investor Day, Airbus came out with much higher potential narrow-body production rates as we look out ’23, ’24, ’25. I guess, what do you think of those potential rates? And how could that change when you've guided Collins and Pratt to look like out in 2025? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, I'll start. Obviously, we haven't even closed the month of July yet, but we do look at that data regularly. We're seeing continued growth, as we head into July consistent with the forecast that we've got baked into our outlook. What I would say, as we think about Pratt, for example, I think a big piece of the second-half is in the shop visits. We were really happy to see 56% year-over-year large legacy shop visits. As I think about Q3, we will be probably north of 30%, 35% and even over 20% growth year-over-year in the fourth quarter. So some good indicators there, we've got pretty good line of sight, as we look at the back-half of the year, particularly on the Pratt shop visit side.
Greg Hayes:
So David, as we think about the narrow-body ramp, if you will, I think you'll see both Boeing and Airbus are starting to ramp up production. We were a little surprised, I would tell you, but we have been talking to Airbus. I know Guillaume and company are laser focused on trying to take some market share and so they're being pretty aggressive by showing that 70 to 75 aircraft a month figure out in 2025. I would tell you, while we're working with Airbus, that remains a challenge for us to get to those levels. Right now we're capacitized to, I think it was rate 63 was the latest high point. Obviously, we will do whatever we need to, to support our customers. Now, whether or not that rate actually materializes, I guess will be the question. Obviously, with the XLR coming along as A321 XLR, I think Airbus got a great aircraft. And they want to take advantage of that in the marketplace. But, we'll see. Again, as I think about this, the air traffic is going to grow 4% or 5% a year. So you're going to continue to see plenty of demand out there for narrow-body. And the question will be, is it A320s? Or, is it 737s? We're positioned on both, obviously a little bit different content on the A320 with the neo engines, but we're keeping an eye on all of this. And I think, we'll work with a supply chain, we'll make sure that we're adequately capacitized to be able to serve our customer there. And we'll see what happens. But there's plenty of time between now and then to get ready if the ramp actually occurs as quickly as what Airbus hopes.
David Strauss:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.
Robert Spingarn:
Hi, good morning. Greg, you talked about the surprising second quarter narrow-body aftermarket demand. And you also talked about the lagging wide-body recovery. But maybe a year from now or even sooner, if we end up with the vaccines getting traction, and we see more long haul traffic strength, could we have a surge in demand both for maybe wide-body and narrow-body at the same time? And, given the headcount reductions, do you have the capacity to address it? In other words, could the demand curve turn into a sine wave at some point here?
Greg Hayes:
From your lips to God's ears. I think in fact, we are optimistic that we could see a faster recovery, should we get a more robust vaccine rollout. And keep in mind, in the U.S., about half of the population is vaccinated, it's getting to be the same in Europe. China, vaccine is also taking hold. But globally, it's only about 9%. So we've got a long way to go I think. The good news is most of the air traffic, of course, is between China and the U.S. and in Europe. So we could see a quicker recovery. I would tell you that we are more than adequately capacitized to take advantage of that recovery from an aftermarket perspective. As we took all those cost cuts last year, that kind of $2 billion of cost takeout, what we didn't do was close a lot of factories or eliminate a lot of capacity. As Neil mentioned before, one of the overhangs of course at Pratt from a cost standpoint is you get all this unabsorbed overhead. Well, that's because we still have the facilities. We're still facilitized to do 1,000 Vs if we saw that kind of a ramp. This year, we'll probably do 550 V's overhauls, but the capacity still exists. It's the same on the GTF. It's really the same across the Collins portfolio. We haven't closed factories and we can bring folks back, we can work extra shifts to pick up on the demand. So I'm not actually worried if we were to see that kind of a recovery. It would be good. Certainly, not what we expect today, but we are ready for it.
Robert Spingarn:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JP Morgan.
Seth Seifman:
Hey, thanks very much. And good morning, everyone. Greg, I was wondering if you could maybe put on your business roundtable hat and talk a little bit about where getting into the second-half of the year. And there's still no resolution on the R&D tax issue for next year. And so, I wonder if you could talk about A the prospects for that in the Congress? And B the prospects to get some relief from that outside of Congress, maybe with some kind of IRS interpretation of the law that removes customer funded R&D from the equation?
Greg Hayes:
Yeah, that's a great question, Seth. We were very hopeful, I would say three or four months ago, as we were thinking about the infrastructure bill as it was winding its way through Congress. And clearly, we were having discussions on the hill, both the Senate and the House side. People are very sympathetic to the fact that this R&D amortization language that was in the 2017 Jobs Act is not helpful in terms of driving the kind of investments that we want to see in technology. And so we have been pressing folks to include relief on the R&D amortization formula in any infrastructure bill that's out there. Obviously, there's pressure to take the corporate rate up. We'll see where that goes. But I think we're still hopeful that we will see some type of relief. And maybe it comes in December, as is typical with the tax extenders that we get some relief here. It's just hard to imagine you want to stop folks from investing in R&D, as the academy comes back from the pandemic. So, again, we're still hopeful, folks at business roundtable are doing a good job educating the Congress on this, and we'll see where it goes. But we're not going to give up hope. I think this is something we just have to get done.
Seth Seifman:
Right. And anything outside of Congress?
Greg Hayes:
We haven't actually explored a regulatory role. And I haven't seen a pathway for IRS or Treasury to change the statutory language of the 2017 Jobs Act. So right now, I think it's going to require an act of Congress.
Seth Seifman:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr with Cowen.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes. Thanks so much. So could you comment on bizjet trends at Legacy UTX? And also, you didn't have much of an uptick in commercial OE at Collins. What do you see going forward for the pickup in rates on the MAX and the 787 where Boeing's been having their own problems? Thanks.
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, let me start with some bizjet context. Cai, how you doing today? Obviously, bizjet has rebounded very quickly. And so, whether that's at the affecting the Collins business, or the Pratt Canada business, we're seeing very good performance there, that I'd say combined with general aviation, both are at or near or even slightly above where we were in 2019. So that is a major contributor here to part of the Collins. Q2 performance, we're seeing it within the Pratt aftermarket as well. As I think about OE, we are certainly seeing that OE growth at both Collins and Pratt. And as I think about the back-half of the year, we will start to see 737 MAX start to be a bigger contributor. We've talked about being aligned with Boeing's production schedule, but having delivered about a third of their requirements for this year already. And so, as we pick up on that second, third, if you will, or two-thirds rather, that'll start to ramp up as we go through the third quarter and more heavily into the fourth quarter. And then, of course, another step as we get into ‘22, which we'll talk more about later in the fall.
Greg Hayes:
You obviously picked also Cai, the 787 that's down to I think five a month. In fact, it's because of some of these production delays, we think it might be even a little bit slower than that. So there's some impact there. You recall, revenue on that's about $10 million a ship set for the Collins business. So there is a little bit of a governor, I would say on Collins OE, even here into the third quarter. And we expect again, as Neil said, once 737 production rates pick up here, as well as we get some of these production issues behind this at the Boeing line on 787 that should that should help the towards the end of the year and into next year.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Maugeri with Wolfe Research.
Mike Maugeri:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Greg, you mentioned having the right technology for the next conflict. So can you talk about the longer-term sort of supply demand balance in your missile business as the DoD customers priorities shift back towards peer adversaries from asymmetric threats?
Greg Hayes:
Yeah, Mike, it's an interesting discussion. If you think about what the -- as we talk about having the right technologies for the next conflict. As we see this right, the next war and I’ve said this before, it gets fought in cyberspace in outer space initially. You aren't going to see land wars in Asia or tank battles across Europe. What you are going to see is cyber-attacks, you're going to see attacks against strategic assets in space to compromise communications and sensing systems, and being able to defend those assets, being able to project and to replenish those assets is really what we're focused on across the RTX portfolio. And the other piece of this of course, is how do you have assured communications. And you'll hear a lot about JADC2 this Joint All-Domain Command and Control. Having assured communications, having reliable, replenishable comp systems is also part of this. And again, we played in that really across the business from the sensing systems at our RMD to the processing that we do at RIS to some of the communication systems that come out of Collins. We think we were uniquely positioned there as well. So look, it's a complex battlefield as we think about it. There's no one single answer. It's not like we're going to replace all of the missiles we have with high powered microwaves or high powered lasers. It's going to be a layered defense, where you're still going to see SM3s and SM6s, and you're still going to need AMRAAM missiles, as well as some things to deal with, I would say the emerging threat of hypersonics, which we think is primarily going to be high powered microwaves. So, a lot to pull apart there, but, I think again, we have technologies in all of those spaces that can differentiate us.
Mike Maugeri:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our last question will come from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.
Matt Akers:
Thanks. Good morning. Could you just touch on sort of the military engine outlook? And kind of specifically in light of some of the F-35 kind of disruptions we've seen on the aircraft side last year, this year. And Lockheed’s comments about maybe a little bit of a slower growth profile here going forward. Just how we should think about that kind of trending going forward?
Neil Mitchill:
Yeah, I'll take that. As we look at the rest of the year for Pratt on the military engine business pretty steady. And we're at or near sort of the rate, we need to be on the F-135 engine. And, we're clipping along. We're not quite halfway through our delivery schedule for the year, but we're pretty close to it. So I'd expect the back-half of our year to look pretty similar to what the first-half did, in terms of engine deliveries. And as we've talked in the past, we pretty much see that kind of rate holding steady for the foreseeable future there.
Greg Hayes:
And keep in mind too, Matt it’s not just F-35 right, we're also on the KC-46 the tanker. We're going to be on the next generation B-21 as that goes into flight test, and then into production in the next couple of years. So there's more than just JSF out there. And the F-100 and the S-16 remains opportunities for us to continue to utilize a platform that literally is 40-years old. So there's more to the military engine business than just JSF. Obviously, it’s the biggest piece, but those other pieces are important as well.
Matt Akers:
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Matt. All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for listening in today. As always, Jennifer and team are prepared and ready to take all of your questions. So, thanks for listening in and we'll see you guys soon. Take care and be well. Bye-bye.
Neil Mitchill:
Bye.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. My name is Deborah and I will be your operator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chief Executive Officer, and Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer. This call is being carried live on the internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com. Please note except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding net, non-recurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC’s SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thank you Deborah, and good morning everyone. Before we jump in, I’d just like to take a couple of minutes to acknowledge the news that most of you saw yesterday of Dr. Kennedy’s retirement as Executive Chairman of the Board, effective June 1 of this year. As you all heard me tell the story, it was just over two years ago that Dr. Kennedy called me to suggest that we merge our two companies. He could see then that in combining our talent, technologies and capabilities that we would have the breadth and scale to meet any industry challenge in aerospace and defense. Little did either of us realize then, of course, how quickly a global pandemic would put that value proposition to the test, and yet here we stand today one year post merger and we’ve made substantial progress not only in integrating the two heritage companies but also managing through an unprecedented downturn in commercial aerospace, all the while identifying new technology synergies and establish an operational rhythm that allows us to meet many of the goals sooner than what we had expected just a year ago. I want to thank Dr. Kennedy for his leadership, partnership and stewardship throughout this merger and congratulate him on a distinguished 38-year career with Raytheon. We wish you well, Tom. I’d also like to officially welcome Neil Mitchill in his new role as Chief Financial Officer, though most of you of course already know Neil - he’s not new to the call. Toby O’Brien stepped down earlier this month and we thank him for all of his contribution as we formed Raytheon Technologies. Many on this call also know that Neil was our interim CFO at UTC prior to the merger and since then, he’s led the IR and financial planning functions. I’m very pleased to have him as our CFO and look forward to working together as we continue the integration and cost initiatives that will capture the full value of the Raytheon Technologies company. Lastly, I’d also like to welcome our new Head of Investor Relations, Jennifer Reed. Jennifer for the past year has led our integration team. As Vice President of Integration, she was responsible for the financial and operational planning activities related to the merger and did a wonderful job, and we’ll hear more about that later. I think that completes the HR section of the call. Let me move on to the numbers. Let’s take a look at Slide 2, please. As I mentioned, earlier this month marked the one-year anniversary of the merger’s closing, and I’m proud of the major accomplishments and progress made by our employees and business leaders, who came together from across our businesses to execute as a single team. Our ability to adjust to the unique circumstances and stay nimble in this very dynamic operating environment has served us and our investors and customers well. With that, let me take you through the performance and some highlights from the quarter. I’m pleased to say that we’ve had a really strong start to the year and we’re seeing continued momentum with signs of economic recovery and incremental improvements in domestic aerospace markets, with international markets of course remaining challenged. As you saw from the press release this morning, we delivered strong quarterly sales, adjusted EPS and free cash flow, all of which exceeded our expectations from earlier this year. While it is still early in the year, the rate of vaccine distribution and signs of travel recovery within key domestic markets, specifically the U.S. and China, are better than what we expected just three months ago. In the U.S., daily TSA traffic has averaged about 1.4 million people a day since the beginning of April, nearly double the levels of January of this year, so we’re headed in the right direction with key metrics improving but we continue to monitor recovery indications around the world and engage with our customers as they prepare for this recovery. On the defense side, I’m happy to say our backlog remains robust at more than $65 billion. These encouraging trends in commercial aerospace and our Q1 performance give us confidence to raise the low end of our full year sales range by half a billion dollars to $63.9 billion, bringing our new sales range for the year at $63.9 billion to $65.4 billion. We’re also going to raise the low end of our full year adjusted EPS range by a dime to $3.50 - that’s up from $3.40, so the new range that we expect for the year is somewhere between $3.50 and $3.70. We’re going to also maintain our free cash flow outlook for the year of at least $4.5 billion, and Neil will give you a little color on all this later in the call. On the capital deployment front, after a better than expected start to earnings and cash in Q1, we’re also going to increase our share buyback plan by half a billion dollars - that will take it up to $2 billion for the year. During the first quarter, of course, we did resume our share buyback and we repurchased about $375 million of our stock, giving us a good start to our full year commitment. You also probably saw yesterday that we increased our dividend by more than 7% yesterday to $0.51 from $0.475. Since the merger last April, we’ve already returned over $3.2 billion to share owners between share buybacks and dividends, and we remain on track to return at least $18 billion to $20 billion to share owners in the first four years following the merger. We also continued to execute well on our synergy programs during the quarter. We achieved nearly $200 million of incremental RTX merger synergies, bringing the total since the merger up to $440 million. Given our strong synergy capture to date and the growing opportunities that we see in the pipeline, we’re going to increase our cost synergy target by $300 million from $1 billion to $1.3 billion, and I don’t think we’re done yet. Collins importantly also achieved an incremental $40 million in acquisition cost synergies in the quarter, bringing their total acquisition-related savings to $510 million since the deal closed in November 2018. Lastly, we continued to strategically shape our portfolio with a focus on higher growth, higher technology businesses. We did close on the Forcepoint divestiture earlier this year - that brought in about $1.1 billion in gross proceeds without the tax benefit, and we’ll continue to be disciplined in M&A as we evaluate both strategic acquisitions as well as strategic divestitures. With that, let me turn it over to Neil. Mr. Mitchill?
Neil Mitchill:
Thank you Greg. I’m happy to be on the call today in my new capacity as CFO, and I look forward to our continued partnership as we continue to capture the full value of RTX. With that, I’m on Slide 3. Let me take you through our financial results. I’m pleased with where we landed for the quarter, exceeding expectations on our key metrics, and as we’ve mentioned previously, Q1 will be the last quarter of tough compares for our commercial aero businesses resulting from the onset of the pandemic last year. Q1 sales were $15.3 billion, above the midpoint of the outlook we provided in January. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 per share, ahead of our expectations driven by better than expected operating profit at all four of our businesses, as well as favorability in some corporate items. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.51 per share and included $0.39 of net non-recurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments. Free cash flow of $336 million exceeded our expectations primarily due to better than expected working capital timing, most notably the timing of collections across the businesses. With that, let me take you through the segment results. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4, sales were $4.4 billion in the quarter, down 32% on an adjusted basis and down 31% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the expected adverse impact of COVID-19 on the commercial aerospace industry. By channel, commercial OE sales were down 45%, again driven principally by the impact of the current environment. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 43% driven by a 39% decline in parts and repair, a 66% decline in provisioning, and a 32% decline in modifications and upgrades. Sequentially however, commercial aftermarket sales were up 11% driven by growth in parts and repair and modifications and upgrades. Defense sales were down 3% on an adjusted basis but up 4% organically. Organic growth was driven by F-35 as well as growth in several avionics product lines. Adjusted operating profit of $332 million was down $952 million from prior year and better than our expectations for the quarter, driven by continued cost control and favorable sales mix. On a year-over-year basis, cost control as well as lower E&D and SG&A were more than offset by lower commercial aftermarket and OE sales volume. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, with a solid start in Q1 and improving trends on the commercial side, we are increasing the low end of Collins sales outlook from a prior range of down high to low single digit, to a new range of down low to mid single digit, and based on our first quarter cost containment measures and those improving trends on the commercial side, we’re also increasing the low end of Collins operating profit outlook by $75 million to a new range of down $200 million to up $25 million. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5, sales of $4 billion were in line with expectations. Year-over-year sales were down 24% on an adjusted basis and down 25% on an organic basis, also driven by the expected adverse impact of the current environment on the industry. Commercial OEM sales were down 40% driven by lower deliveries across most of Pratt’s large commercial engine and Pratt Canada platforms. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 35% in the quarter driven by an expected decline in shop visits, but growth in the GTF aftermarket volume was more than offset by the impact of a reduction in legacy large commercial engine shop visits of 38% and a 28% reduction in Pratt Canada shop visits. In our military business, sales were up 1% on higher F135 aftermarket partially offset by lower volume across certain development programs. Pratt’s adjusted operating profit of $40 million was down $475 million from the prior year. Significant aftermarket volume reductions and fixed cost headwinds more than offset continued cost containment measures, including reductions in G&A and E&D. Looking ahead, with a solid start in Q1 and improving trends on the commercial side of the business here too, we are also increasing the low end of Pratt’s full year sales outlook from a prior range of flat to up mid single digit, to a new range of up low to mid single digits, and we are increasing the low end of Pratt’s operating profit outlook by $50 million to a new range of down $75 million to up $25 million. Turning now to Slide 6, first I’ll remind everyone that the percentage of completion reset at the merger date continues to impact the comparable sales and operating profit at the legacy Raytheon businesses. With that, Raytheon intelligence and space sales were $3.8 billion, up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted pro forma basis and better than our expectations for the quarter, driven by higher volume in sensing and effects, particularly airborne ISR. Operating profit in the quarter was $388 million, down $11 million year over year on an adjusted pro forma basis and a little better than expected due to higher sales volume. It’s worth noting that sequentially, the ROS at RAS improved 110 basis points to 10.3%. RAS had bookings in the quarter of $3.7 billion, resulting in a backlog of $19.2 billion. Significant bookings included approximately $1.4 billion on classified programs as well as several other notable awards. Our Q1 book to bill was 1.08, and looking ahead we remain confident in our full year outlook for RAS with sales growing low to mid single digits and operating profit growing $125 million to $175 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020. Turning now to Slide 7, Raytheon missile and defense sales were $3.8 billion, up 3% versus prior on an adjusted pro forma basis and better than expected due to higher volume across multiple mission areas. Adjusted operating profit was $496 million, also better than expected and down $43 million year-over-year on an adjusted pro forma basis due to the absence of a favorable prior year contract settlement and the EAC reset impact that I mentioned. RMD’s bookings in the quarter were approximately $2.5 billion, resulting in a backlog of $27.7 billion. Significant bookings in the quarter included an award of approximately $520 million for AMRAAM for the U.S. Air Force, the Navy, and international customers, and an award of about $250 million to provide Patriot engineering services support for the U.S. Army and international customers. It’s also worth noting that RMD’s industry team was down selected for the next generation Interceptor award, and we expect to book that award in the second quarter for over $1 billion. Book to bill was 0.68 in the quarter, as expected, as we continue to deliver against a previously awarded multi-year production contract. Before moving on, I’d also like to make a comment on the previously disclosed ongoing DoJ investigation into cost accounting matters at legacy Raytheon Company’s former integrated defense systems business, or IDS, which is now part of RMD. As you’ll see in our upcoming 10-Q filing later today, the investigation includes potential civil liability for defective pricing for three contracts entered into between 2011 and 2013 by IDS. We provided for our best estimate related to this matter in connection with the finalization of purchase accounting during the quarter. Additionally, as part of the same investigation, we recently received a second subpoena relating to a different IDS contract from 2017, and we do not currently believe the resolution of this matter will result in a material impact to our financial condition and we will continue to cooperate fully with the government’s investigation. Turning back to RMD’s full year outlook, we continue to expect RMD sales to grow low to mid single digits and operating profit to grow $25 million to $75 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020. Finally for your reference, we’ve included an updated outlook for each segment in the webcast appendix. With that, moving to Slide 8, let me update you on how we see the current environment as we look ahead at the rest of the year. Starting with our merger synergies, as Greg said, we are increasing our gross merger cost synergy target to $1.3 billion, and that’s due to higher expected synergy capture in our corporate office and segment consolidation, as well as additional opportunities we’ve identified in the supply chain and footprint consolidation and in IT. Keep in mind that’s on top of $600 million of Rockwell Collins acquisition synergies. Additionally, we continue to see the benefits of the cost actions we took last year. We’re making solid progress on the structural cost reduction actions we’ve previously announced while at the same time working additional opportunities to drive further cost out of the business. Moving to the commercial side of the business, the shape of the commercial aero recovery remains critical to our outlook. As Greg mentioned, we’re encouraged by the pace of the vaccine distribution and we’re seeing signs of increasing travel demand, particularly on many domestic routes; however, we continue to watch Europe and international border reopening. While we’ve seen slightly better than expected results to start the year, particularly at Collins as customers prepare for a strong summer travel season, as well as evidence of increasing future travel demand, we still need to see this demand translate to strong sequential growth in RPMs and ASMs as we head into and through the peak summer travel season. As such, the second quarter remains a critical period in determining the recovery profile for the rest of the year. Looking longer term, we continue to expect that it will take until at least 2023 for commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels. For the defense side of our business, we continue to expect both domestic and international program growth to remain robust, as evidenced by our over $65 billion defense backlog. Our strength with international customers, our innovative technologies, and our positions in high growth areas gives us confidence in our ability to grow these businesses even in the current domestic budget environment. Finally, our financial strength is underpinned by the strength of our balance sheet and supports our capital deployment commitments. Moving to Slide 9, following our strong start to the year, we remain confidence in our full year outlook, and as Greg mentioned, we are bringing up the low end of our sales range by $500 million and bringing up the low end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.10, with about $0.06 coming from the segments and the remainder coming from improvement in some corporate items. Now let me just give you a little color on Q1. At the company level, we see sales in the range of $15.5 billion to $16 billion, adjusted EPS in the range of $0.90 to $0.95 per share, and we see sequential improvement in free cash flow. It’s also worth mentioning that we’ve included an updated outlook for some of the below the line items and an updated pension outlook that includes the impact of the latest COVID relief bill in the webcast appendix. With that, I’ll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thanks Neil. No surprise here - as we think about our 2021 priorities, first and foremost it’s going to be to continue to support our employees, our customers, suppliers, and communities, all the while continuing to invest in new technology and innovation to drive industry leadership for the long term. I am confident in the outlook for our company. RTX is well positioned to deliver strong sales, earnings growth, and cash flow for not just this but for the foreseeable future. Before we get to Q&A, just a note. We are going to have an investor day coming up on May 18 where you’ll get a chance to hear from our business unit leaders as well as on our transformation initiatives from Mike Dumais. I look forward to sharing a lot of information also on our revenue synergies and our long term growth strategies with you at that meeting. With that, let’s turn it over to Q&A. Deborah?
Operator:
[Operator instructions] The first question comes from the line of Carter Copeland with Melius Research.
Carter Copeland:
Gentlemen.
Greg Hayes:
Hey Carter.
Carter Copeland:
Greg, I’m going to resist the urge to ask a numerical question and instead ask you about--
Greg Hayes:
I’m good with numbers, Carter.
Carter Copeland:
I know, I know - I’m going to take you away from there. In light of Toby’s departure and Tom’s announced retirement, and we’re on a year into the merger, this is the biggest integration in the history of aerospace and defense mergers and you’ve been obviously trying to do a lot of that virtually. With respect to what still needs to be done and what has yet to be accomplished, where do things stand in that regard and where do you want them to go? Have things surprised you along the way that have led to any change relative to where the plan was? Just anything you can give us to help us understand where that is in its process, aside from cost synergies and some of the numerical pieces but more the integration of the two companies culturally.
Greg Hayes:
Yes Carter, it’s something that we have spent a lot of time on over these past 12 months. We’re fortunate I’ve got Jen Reed sitting here with me, who has been leading that integration effort. I would tell you we’ve realized over $400 million of cost synergies, but there is a lot of work yet to do. We’ve done many of the hard things in terms of reducing staff, making sure the policies are consistent, but again not done with that. I think the biggest opportunities we still have are on the digital front, where we have a lot of work to do to reduce the number of data centers. We’ve just made a big investment to try and reduce the data centers from more than 30 to less than a dozen. We’re also working on what we call the digital thread - that is, how do you connect everything from product development through operations, supply chain and sustainment. Lastly, I would tell you it is rolling out our common operating system. You’ll hear more about this in May, but we do need a common operating system. We have 178 manufacturing facilities around the world, and we have work to do to consolidate those yet. We’re making good progress, but it is going to take us some time. It will take us a full four years to realize the $1.3 billion of synergy savings. We made good progress on identifying savings related to procurement, both product and non-product, cost reduction. All of those things are on track, but I would just remind you it’s too early to declare victory. Just like Collins has got now over $500 million of synergies on their way to $600 million, there’s still work to do there. We’re not going to declare victory.
Carter Copeland:
Did you find anything in the process that has, I guess, surprised you? I’m just thinking about some of the charges in the legacy Raytheon defense segments and the comments you made around the DoJ subpoena regarding the pricing. Are these things surprising to you?
Greg Hayes:
Well look, first of all just to be clear, these are contracts from 2011 through 2013, so there is always surprises like that out there when the DoJ suggested that we defectively priced some contracts. We’ve been doing an investigation, we’ve been working with the DoJ, and I think we appropriately provided for those exposures, as Neil mentioned. I wouldn’t call that a big surprise. What I would tell you, people think about the culture, and it was not that different between the aerospace businesses at legacy UTC and the defense business at Raytheon. The fact is many of our customers on the defense side were the same and the cultures were the same. I think again that has been a pleasant surprise in terms of how easily we have been able to integrate the two businesses culturally and that process will continue, but I would tell you it is going remarkably well for what is probably the largest aerospace and defense merger ever.
Carter Copeland:
Great, thanks for the color, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.
Robert Spingarn:
Hi, good morning Greg, Neil, Jennifer. Neil, for you, you’re essentially guiding to EPS around $0.90 in each quarter this year, at least if I think about what you’ve said for Q2 against Q1. Why isn’t there more improvement from the first half to the second, especially given the buyback and maybe even a slightly lower tax rate? You mentioned Q2 is going to be key for assessing the pace of the recovery, so could you elaborate a little bit on what you’re expecting, or is this just a conservative second half guide?
Neil Mitchill:
No, I don’t think it’s that. I think there’s still three quarters ahead of us, so I need you keep that in mind as we look at the rest of the year. We did see some promising uptick as we were in March of first quarter at Collins and Pratt - you know, some pre-buy, I would call it, for the airlines ahead of the summer travel season, but let me give you a little bit more color on Q2 specifically. We do see segment operating profit growth somewhere between $0.03 and $0.07 for Q2 if you think about that sequentially. We do have some headwinds on the corporate side, so one of the things that we benefited from in the first quarter was reduced corporate expenses in part on interest as we had better than expected cash flow, and so that will lower our interest for the year, as well as we are being more efficient with our synergy investment spend. But that spending on the synergy investment will pick up here in the second quarter, so you’ve got a few--you know, $0.02, $0.03 of headwind on that front in the second quarter as well. As it relates to the second half of the year, we’ll have to wait and see a bit, but certainly the back end of our plan contemplated a real strong summer travel season, and that’s why I think Q2 is going to be so important.
Robert Spingarn:
And then just on the cash flow cadence throughout the year, you touched on it there, but if you could just go into perhaps a little bit more detail.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. As you know, our cash flow tends to be back end loaded as we ramp and then deliver through the year. As I think about the first quarter, our free cash flow was better than we expected, probably by about $600 million, all of that attributable to improved working capital. If I break that down for you, think about $300 million of that coming from better than expected customer collections. We were happy to see some customers pay early at the end of the quarter. We had a couple hundred million dollars of improvement in disbursements timing and $100 million better improvement--better than expected performance on inventory. Still a long ways to go to get to our full year $400 million working capital improvement, but good progress. As I think about Q2, I would expect to see clearly some sequential growth, probably at least doubling, and then more of that in the back half of the year as the sales continue to ramp and collections, as they seasonally do, ramp up.
Robert Spingarn:
Thank you.
Neil Mitchill:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Raviv with Citi.
Neil Mitchill:
Hey John.
John Raviv:
Hey, good morning everyone. On the [indiscernible] going back to DoJ items, can you clarify the [estimates that we’ll see] [ph] in the 10-Q, those are not material and the second subpoena, you do not expect to be material either, and just any kind of color on any connective tissue or any narrative or rhythm or theme, I’d say, between these items - for instance, are they all FMS or tied to a particular person or team or incentive structure? And then any comments around what the functional impact of those settlements is going to be on the ongoing business for which--you know, on those contracts referenced, the ’11 to ’13 and also the ’17 item. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
John, I appreciate the question. I’m not sure we can really answer it. I will say this is an ongoing investigation by DoJ. We have begun our own investigation and as we discover facts, we have been sharing all of those facts with the DoJ. I would tell you again, the dollar amounts are not going to be material in our view today. Again, these are older contracts where it was alleged that we defectively priced some contracts. Again, I can’t get into much more detail than that, but we’ve looked into it, we think there is potential liability for defective pricing clearly, we’re provided for that this quarter, and we’re going to continue to work with DoJ to bring these things to a resolution. I would tell you, these investigations take time. We’re still going through doing some work, but we don’t believe there’s going to be any ongoing impact to any of the businesses as a result of these investigations. We think there were one-off events that occurred--should not have occurred, but they did, and we’re going to clean it up and move on.
John Raviv:
Okay, thank you Greg for that. I’ll stick to the one.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning guys. Just maybe on Pratt, I think in the hearing on Thursday on F-35, Pratt was mentioned 39 times, so I guess the question is this. How are you guys remedying the issues that the Air Force has with the F135 engine, and do you fear that all this rhetoric around the engine could offer an entrée for GE to try to get a second engine in there, because they’ve been raising their rhetoric on that, at least they have been with the investment community.
Greg Hayes:
Well Ron, first of all, it’s nice to be mentioned 39 times - all publicity is good in some respects. But I would tell you the issues--and I think Matthew Bromberg, who is President of our Military Engine Business, explained this pretty well. We’ve actually done a good job on the production or the OEM front in terms of delivering engines. We ended the year on contract; in fact, there were about 50 engines sitting at the final assembly line for the F-35 today. Unfortunately where we didn’t do a great job was at the sustainment center, and we did not provision enough in terms of test equipment and personnel to deal with the volumes that we saw coming into the shop. As a result, there are about 20 aircraft today that are sitting there that do not have a serviceable engine. Now, one of the solutions--I think Matthew pointed this out last week in his testimony, we could take some of those engines from the final assembly line and put them over at the sustainment center and solve this problem tomorrow, but as you know, the color of money for procurement is different than it is for operations and maintenance, so it’s not that easy. But we have committed in working with the customer, with the JPO to put the equipment in place necessary to service the engines such that we get back on, I’ll say contract performance levels by the end of this year. A lot of work to do, but again we were caught by surprise in terms of the amount of hours that were being flown. We were surprised at the scope of the work that was required on some of these, but we will catch up. As far as does this give an entrée to GE to build the F-136 engine, I can’t answer that question completely. I would tell you, though, that is a multi-billion dollar, multi-year effort to bring that engine back in line, and I think again given the cost challenges on the program, it seems unlikely that any of the services are going to spend that kind of money for an extra engine, when in fact our engine is actually performing quite well in service and meeting the reliability targets, meeting the fuel burn targets. The issue with the F-35 is not capability, it’s sustainment cost, and that is the other thing that we’ve committed to work with the JPO on, is how do we reduce, working with Lockheed, the sustainment cost because that will ultimately be the bigger cost than the initial procurement.
Ron Epstein:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good morning guys, thank you. Maybe I’ll ask one on Collins. Decrementals are still in the 40% range. What are the moving pieces of that, and how do we think about the trajectory of margin improvement in that business, just given commercial OE start-stops on 787 and the Max?
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Sheila, I’ll take that one. You saw the decrementals today - 47% at Collins, slightly better than what we were seeing last year, so that’s good. The cost containment actions that we’ve implemented are taking hold and continuing. As you think about the rest of the year, we continue to see the incrementals being very strong, probably in the 75% range if you’d average Q2 to Q4, but as you look at Q2, they should be in excess of 100% because you’ll recall that last year, Q2 was our deepest quarter. I’m happy with what the team’s doing there in terms of maintaining that cost control around E&D, SG&A in the factories. They took some difficult steps last year, as you know, and as we started the year, the Collins team has done a nice job of containing the growth in those costs. We will see a little bit of that come back in the second half of the year as Collins as we reinstate merits and furloughs are reduced and volume picks up, but it should be a really good story for the back three quarters of the year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Neil, can you just comment on what’s going on with the Max and the ’87, what kind of rates you expect for the year?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, so starting with the 787, we are aligned with the Boeing production schedule, so you can think about that being around five ship sets per month. On 737, also aligned with Boeing. I think they’re out there with 161 deliveries expected for the year. As we’ve talked about, Sheila, we have produced and delivered a fair amount of that, a third to a half of that, so the uptick in the 737 OE deliveries will start in the back half of the year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JP Morgan.
Seth Seifman:
Thanks very much, good morning. Maybe just to follow up on Sheila’s last question, the guidance for Collins would seem to imply kind of this continuation of the mid-7s margin that we saw in the first quarter, but there’s potential for an era recovery and continued efforts on efficiencies, and so why wouldn’t we see that margin expand off of that level as we move through the year?
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, thanks Seth, I’ll take that. You’re right - as you think about the guide for the rest of the year for Collins, particularly given some of the strength we saw here in the first quarter, those margins are contained in that range; however, I will say we’re being really smart about the timing of when we spend our E&D and when we reinstate some of the discretionary spending. Those will be natural offsets to what we expect to see in terms of aftermarket growth, but as that aftermarket growth comes, I would expect if it’s better than our plan, then you’ll see it drop through.
Seth Seifman:
Okay, and then just on that, I think you mentioned the sequential aftermarket growth in the quarter, 11%. Can you talk about what pieces of the aftermarket are showing the most strength right now and where you expect that at Collins for the remainder of the year?
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, yes. It’s coming from the two places you’d expect it - parts and repair, and mods and upgrades. Provisioning is lagging a little bit, but again that tracks more closely to the commercial OE deliveries, so I’m not surprised to see that. But we are seeing, I’ll call it cautiously encouraging signs as we exited March and started April on the repair intake in particular.
Seth Seifman:
Great, thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hi, good morning everybody. Neil, could you just add a little more color to that last question there, just with all of these questions about how the guidance implies some flattish things through the year despite some signposts for improvement, with the aftermarket being the shorter cycle lever? How did you tackle how to decide what to include for the aerospace aftermarket, given the signposts are positive but it is still uncertain? Then could you also tackle what happened with your pension cash flow inputs? It looks like those changed less than maybe we thought, based on how the inputs were revised there.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure. Let me try to build upon the aftermarket. As I think about the year and we think about the recent IOTA data on RPMs, January and February were a little bit of a slow start. That definitely picked up in March. When I think about the change in the RPM forecast that we and the industry are looking at today, I think we’re pretty well aligned. It looks a little bit different today than it did three months ago. Clearly the domestic routes, U.S. and China in particular, are much stronger, so that’s helping us; but on the international side, it’s a little slower than we thought. On the ASK or ASM side, the available seat miles, those are tracking pretty consistently with what we saw in January, or thought we would see in January. I think the thinking that we’ve had as we look at the rest of the year, and there’s still a long way to go, is that we really need to see those ASMs and corresponding RPMs increase here in the second quarter, and we’re thinking about a 40% sequential growth in RPMs from 1Q21 to Q2 and then again Q2 to Q3, and then corresponding on the ASM side think about 25% to 30% sequential growth between Q1 and Q2, and Q2 and Q3. If we see that kind of growth, then we will likely see a stronger second half, but I think at this point it’s just too early to call that. That’s how I’m thinking about that a little bit more Shifting to--
Noah Poponak:
If I could just interject there really quickly, just to make sure I have it correctly, your guidance does not imply those types of sequential moves, or really close, so am I hearing you correctly that the signposts are saying that could be what happens, but just given how much uncertainty there still is with the virus and the vaccine rollout and restrictions to travel, you’re feeling the need to keep the guidance fairly conservative in case things are more volatile than that?
Greg Hayes:
Yes, I think you said that exactly correctly, Noah. The fact is there’s still a lot that has to go right in the back half of the year, in these next eight months of the year, so while we’re optimistic based upon the vaccine rollout here and what we’ve seen in China, there is still a tremendous--I mean, keep in mind 40% of Collins’ aftermarket is wide body, and that market is down significantly and it’s not recovering nearly as fast as what we thought it was going to. So domestic markets better, international markets worse, overall though still confident in the full year guidance, and to Neil’s point, if the recovery happens faster, if the vaccine rollout and we start to see travel to Europe, for instance, in the summer season start to improve, these numbers could be better and you’ll see that in the bottom line. Again, we debated--you know, there could be upside on the top line and bottom line, but it’s April, and so when we see you guys in May, we’ll talk about it again. You’ll have a chance to talk to Steve Timm and to Chris Calio to see what they’re seeing in the marketplace, and then we’ll have a better view obviously by the end of the second quarter. Right now, we’re optimistic but still cautious.
Noah Poponak:
Sensible, okay.
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, and let me take the pension question too. Thanks for bringing it up. Yes, we did put out some new numbers there. As you know, the relief bill that was passed reduced pension funding. We currently don’t see the need to do any domestic funding in the near term as a result of that bill. You’ll recall that we pre-funded $800 million in 2020 that would have been our 2021 contribution, so there’s nothing in ’21 that changed as a result of the bill. However, looking forward we do get a little bit of improvement, so we’ll have to fund a little bit less into our pension plans. We’ll get a little bit less on the CAS recovery - it’s about $75 million next year and, I think, $50 million in 2023, so good news. The last thing I’ll add is we got a little bit of a P&L benefit here in Q1 as we’ve rolled this lower CAS cost into our forward pricing. Probably about 70 basis points of margin improvement at the RMD segment is where it really showed up. Going forward for the rest of the year, I don’t expect to see much more of that, and we’ve rolled that into our forward pricing.
Noah Poponak:
How far into the future did it take down the domestic funding?
Neil Mitchill:
It’s pretty far out. I would say for the next three to five years right now, and of course that depends on a lot of other assumptions that could change. But all things equal, for the next several years at least.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS.
Myles Walton:
Thanks, good morning. I was wondering if I could pick up where we left off on RMD - it outperformed on margins, and Neil, thanks for the clarity on the pension contribution there, but still I think it was running hot, and obviously no change to the full year. Then maybe talk about the bookings trends there, which obviously look lighter, and when you think that could turn around and give more confidence to at least stability in the segment from a revenue perspective run rate.
Neil Mitchill:
Sure, no problem. Yes, as you saw, 13.1% RMD margins in the quarter, we were very happy with that, as I mentioned just a minute ago. Think about 70 basis points of that as a pension tailwind that won’t repeat. We also had about 40 basis points, I’d say, of international mix, some acceleration of award timing that came through with the CFR liquidation. That helped RMD here in the first quarter. If you kind of adjust for those two items, you’ll see continued margin progression, again as the productivity improves through the year, so we’re still seeing that margin growth that we would expect absent those couple of items.
Myles Walton:
And I’m sorry, bookings trends?
Neil Mitchill:
The bookings trends, yes. You know, listen - a year ago, and in the past 18 months RMS has had some significant multi-year buys, so as we burned down the backlog there, our book to bill is a little bit lower. But later this year, we do expect next generation Interceptor - we talked about that, that will be over a billion dollar booking that we’ll book here in the second quarter, LRSO and some other international Patriot awards that are forthcoming later in the year. So all in all, I still expect on a full year basis a book to bill of about 1.0 for RMD and RIS, for that matter.
Myles Walton:
Okay, all right. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Hey Greg, good sequential improvement from Pratt & Whitney on the large engine inductions. How are you thinking about, at least planning or visibility wise in the second half or at least as we move forward on the recovery, and then also maybe you could just highlight how Pratt Canada is doing, just given that we’re seeing a resurgence in biz jet flying activity. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes Peter, so if you think about engine inductions, Vs, I think we had about 118 Vs into the shop in the first quarter, which is exactly on plan, and we expect that will accelerate, we think, throughout the year as domestic travel recovers. Right now, only about 60% of the V fleet is flying - again, it will come back, and compare that to the GTF powered fleet, which is in the high 80s. So again, there is a little bit of a lag in demand, but we fully expect we’re going to see a big sequential--or a sequential improvement. We’re not going to get back to 1,000 engines this year, probably not for two more years on the V, but we’re clearly going to trend that way as people need more lift in these domestic markets. That’s actually very encouraging. As far as the rest of the aftermarket, talking about Pratt Canada, again good traction in their aftermarket. We’re seeing biz jet flying hours are up, as you would imagine, significantly, and that’s translating into some higher aftermarket. Keep in mind most of the engines that we have out there are on a power-by-the-hour arrangement, so we don’t actually recognize the revenue or the cost until we see those engines come back. So flight hours are up, aftermarket is up, but it’s not as much as you might think just because of the nature of the contracts. The one area at Pratt Canada that continues to be a challenge is in the regional marketplace - you know, the PW100, the PW150 for regional transport. That market has been slower to recover. It’s again something we expect to see next year, but certainly not a big uptick this year. Biz jet deliveries, engines are very solid, helicopter engine deliveries solid. It’s really just the regionals that are the challenge right now for Pratt Canada.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the color.
Neil Mitchill:
Peter, it’s Neil. Just to go back on the Pratt shop visits, we still expect Q2 to Q4 shop visit growth in the 25% to 30% range, so all that’s holding, as Greg mentioned - you know, good start to the first quarter, and then we’ll see that back half growth. The other point I would throw out there is we’re watching Europe obviously, but the majority of that V fleet and our planning around those shop visits, I’d say 80% or more, 85% or more is not in the Europe region, so feel pretty good about that outlook.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate those comments, thanks Neil.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks, good morning. I think you mentioned that the Collins aftermarket was up 11% sequentially. I would imagine January and February weren’t very good. Can you talk about what you saw in March in terms of how quickly the airlines can turn it back on, and then maybe also what you’re seeing in April?
Greg Hayes:
David, I don’t know that we want to get into month by month compares. I would say that directionally, that is absolutely correct. January and February were a little scary because, again, we saw an uptick in China in the virus and the U.S. was going through the last wave, and so air traffic was not picking up as fast as what we had expected it to. That all turned around in March. With the vaccine rollout, with China getting the pandemic under control, things got remarkably better, and what surprised us a little bit was typically when we see a recovery in RPMs, it’s usually three to six months before we see a recovery in demand for parts and repair, but in this case, because you’ve got so many parked aircraft out there - think about 11,000 out of 30,000 around the world are parked today, and yet demand is coming back very quickly in the U.S. and in China. The airlines are actually being proactive in getting the aircraft ready for service in the summer selling season, and that’s really what drove March, what’s driving April, and I think which will benefit second quarter as the airlines are not waiting to see the RPMs. They see it in their advanced bookings and they know they need the lift. This is a very different kind of recovery than what we have seen in the past.
David Strauss:
Okay, and I wanted to ask about the legacy Raytheon businesses and the margin expectation there. Those businesses were around 13% on average blended together pre the accounting adjustments and all of that. Is there anything structurally in terms of anything different about how we should think about where those margins can get to as you’re able to start booking EACs again?
Neil Mitchill:
Yes, let me give you a couple of thoughts. First of all, we’ve got to keep in mind that as we implement all these synergies, which are great, they do come with a give-back to our customer, which is great because it also makes us more competitive, so that’s a factor that you’ve got to think about in the margins. But both those businesses are laser focused on driving productivity and cost reduction throughout their businesses. We do see the opportunity for margin expansion. It’s going to be a great question for Wes and Roy at our upcoming investor day in May, where they’ll talk a little bit more about that. We’ve talked about the EAC reset. We do expect that to be--that issue to be largely behind us as we exit the year, so you could see a little bit more margin expansion throughout this year. But these are great businesses as we get into longer term production contracts. On the RMD side in particular, you’ll see margin expansion there, but you do have a replenishing of some of the programs, so we’ve had the Patriot missile program, very good program for us that will get replaced with the LTAMDS in the future, so there will be a little bit of a mix shift as the margin sort of transitions between those early LRIP contracts when you get into late ’23 and ’24, and we get out of the more mature programs that we’ve been in today. A lot of potential there.
David Strauss:
All right, thanks very much, Neil and Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard :
Thanks very much, good morning. I just wanted to follow up on Peter’s question about Pratt & Whitney and the other side of the engine portfolio there. I was wondering if you could tell us what you’ve been seeing on some of the older aircraft variants, engine variants that are out there and how freight has perhaps been helping those older aircraft out. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, so if you think about the--so the freighters, if you think about Pratt’s installed base of 11,000-plus engines or so, about 10% of that is freighters. Those were old PW4000s, those are the 94-inch 767s and 747s. That has actually been a pleasant surprise, I would tell you, because freighter traffic, as everybody knows, is up significantly year over year, given the push of ecommerce and global supply chain. As we think about the aftermarket for Pratt, it’s not all bad news. Freighter traffic is good. At the same time, we’re starting to see some retirements of some of the older engines out there, not a significant number this year but pretty much in line with what we had expected, especially I think on the 112-inch - that’s the 777. We saw JAL retiring their fleet - not a surprise. It’s 12 months before we thought they were going to retire it, but that will be putting those aircraft down, but those engines will still end up in service someplace else, probably in a freighter configuration. So again, the older stuff is still out there, it’s still a meaningful piece of the aftermarket. I think it’s about 20--
Neil Mitchill:
About 25%, yes, so it’s still very significant and, frankly, that cargo traffic that you all know is considerably higher than it was even pre-pandemic has helped the shop visits at Pratt in ’21.
Robert Stallard:
And a quick follow-up, if I may, this may be a tough question, but how sustainable do you think this freight demand is likely to be?
Greg Hayes:
Look, as I look at how sustainable is ecommerce and this trend towards global supply chains, I think this is here to stay. The fact is global supply chains are stretched thin today, and freighters are the most efficient way to get parts from Point A to Point B, so I think this is not just a temporary phenomenon.
Robert Stallard:
That’s great, thanks Greg.
Neil Mitchill:
Deborah, we’ll take one more question, please. Thank you.
Operator:
Your final question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr with Cowen.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thanks so much. At our conference in February, Toby talked of 15% to 30% growth in commercial aftermarket at Collins over Q2 to Q4. That kind of seems like it fits with your full year guide, but it implies that commercial aftermarket moves up from the first quarter by something like $250 million, if there’s an orderly build. Could you give us some more color on maybe the margin headwinds we look at, because you had this huge profit gain at Collins on basically lower volume sequentially from Q4 to Q1, and as Seth brought out, your guide for the rest of the year assumes basically not much margin improvement at all sequentially, and yet you should have very strong growth in your more lucrative part of your business.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks Cai. Just a couple thoughts here. As I think about the sequential growth in commercial aftermarket, Collins commercial aftermarket for the rest of the year, it’s a little bit lower than what we talked about in the first quarter, and that’s because we’ve de-risked that a bit by the performance we’ve seen. Think about 5% in Q1 to Q2, maybe 10% Q2 to Q3, and another 5% or 8% in Q3 to Q4 in terms of growth. In terms of thinking about the strength that you saw in the first quarter, a lot of really good work on the cost containment, E&D and SG&A combined about $60 million of improvement, and that will come back because the team is phasing that investment during the year because we’re trying to be very prudent about the discretionary element of our spending until we see the recovery take a strong hold. That’s what I can share with you there. Appreciate the question.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Thanks so much.
Neil Mitchill:
You bet.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thank you everyone for listening in today. I know it’s a busy earnings day out there, but appreciate everybody’s time. Jennifer and Neil and the whole IR team will be available all day today to answer your questions, and we look forward to seeing you or talking to you on May 18. Take care. Bye bye.
Operator:
This does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Norma, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are, Greg Hayes, Chief Executive Officer; Toby O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer; Neil Mitchill, Corporate Vice President and Financial Planning, Analysis and Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Norma, and good morning everyone. Welcome to 2021. So for those of you following along the webcast, we're going to start on slide 2. Just taking a look back on 2020, as painful as it was, it's obviously one of the most challenging years for our company, for the commercial aerospace industry at large and for everyone around the globe. But importantly, it was also a transformational year for us, as we created an industry-leading aerospace and defense company. I'm really proud of the way our team managed through the pandemic and continued to support our customers, our suppliers, and our communities without missing a beat. In many areas, we were able to accelerate our progress and we found new ways to increase our productivity that will be a part of how we operate going forward. So let me go over some of the highlights from 2020, and And we'll start with the portfolio transformation and integration. We obviously achieved two significant milestones this year by completing the separation of Otis and Carrier as standalone public companies as well as the merger that same day on April 3 with Raytheon Company to form Raytheon Technologies. This was a culmination of a multiyear effort to transform the company into an innovative and focused and leading aerospace and defense company that will define the future of the industry. In connection with this transformation, we also completed the divestiture of several businesses, including the sale of Forcepoint that closed earlier this month. All of that resulted in net proceeds of over $3 billion, further strengthening our financial position. We continue to strengthen our portfolio with strategic bolt-on acquisitions, and we'll continue to evaluate other non-core divestitures this year.
Toby O'Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Greg. Moving on to slide 3. Let me first give you an update on some of the key actions we have taken to rightsize the cost structure of our organization. First, as Greg highlighted, we overdrove the cost reduction and cash conservation commitments we set early last year, and we'll see continued benefits from those actions in 2021 and beyond. Next, on the synergy front, excellent momentum there as we exceeded both our RTX and Collins targets in 2020 with a significant increase anticipated in 2021. We also announced a number of other cost reductions that are more structural in nature. To start, we previously took the difficult action to reduce commercial headcount at Collins and Pratt by 15,000 and to eliminate 4,000 contractor roles. We have recently reduced commercial headcount at Collins by another 1,500, bringing the total to 16,500; and contractors by another 500 bringing the total to approximately 4,500 contractors as we continue to position the business for strength as the industry recovers, reducing our total commercial aero headcount now by approximately 20%.
Neil Mitchill:
Thanks, Toby. Starting with Collins Aerospace on slide 5. Adjusted sales were $4.4 billion in the quarter down 32% on an adjusted basis; and down 31% on an organic basis driven primarily by the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the industry. Sequentially, sales were up 3% driven by slight growth in commercial OE and aftermarket. By channel, commercial OEM sales were down 41%, driven principally by the impact of the current environment lower 737 MAX and anticipated declines in legacy programs. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 48%, driven by a 47% decline in parts and repair a 58% decline in provisioning and a 46% decline in modifications and upgrades. Partially offsetting the headwinds in the commercial channels, defense sales were up 1% on an adjusted basis and up 7% organically driven by F-35, as well as growth in our avionics and actuation product lines.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks Neil. I'm now on Slide 9. Let me give you some perspective on how we see the current environment as we look ahead at 2021. As you know, we performed exceptionally well on our cost reduction and cash conservation actions in 2020. And as I've previously discussed, we'll see some continued benefit from these actions along with the incremental headcount actions at Collins which will be partially offset by headwinds from the reinstatement of merit increases and reduced furloughs. So, on a net year-over-year basis we expect this to be a $300 million benefit in 2021. On the merger and acquisition synergy front, we expect to deliver an incremental $610 million of gross RTX synergies and $85 million of incremental Collins synergies this year. And our liquidity position remains very strong. We ended 2020 with about $9 billion of cash on the balance sheet that has been further bolstered by the sale of our Forcepoint business that closed earlier this month. Moving now to the macro factors, while we in the industry will have a tough compare in the first quarter, the availability of multiple vaccines is encouraging. We expect the pace of the commercial aero recovery will depend upon the speed and breadth of vaccination rollouts across the world. As a result, we expect sequential RPM growth to accelerate as we progress through the year. Consistent with recent travel trends, we expect narrow-body and regional traffic to rebound before wide-body, particularly due to the continued international border restrictions. For the third consecutive quarter, we saw continued improvements in utilization across the GTF-powered A320neo fleets as well as solid utilization of the A220 platform and the fleets powered by Pratt's V2500 engines. Looking longer term, we continue to expect that it will take until at least 2023, for commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels. We continue to expect defense program growth to remain robust, both domestically and internationally. We remain confident in our ability to grow those businesses even in a flat budgetary environment, due to our strength with international customers, our innovative technologies and our positions in high-growth areas. With that backdrop, let me tell you how we see the year ahead. Moving to slide 10, at an RTX level we expect full year 2021 sales to be between $63.4 billion and $65.4 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $3.40 to $3.70. And as Greg said, we expect free cash flow of approximately $4.5 billion. Keep in mind, with the Forcepoint sale that closed earlier this month, we have divested four businesses in the last year, which combined create about $1 billion of sales headwind year-over-year. I should point out, that our ranges for 2021 are a bit wider than we would typically provide, driven entirely by the macro factors impacting our commercial aero businesses. With our ranges, we are attempting to capture the potential variability we may encounter, given the current environment and the speed of the vaccine rollout, revenue passenger miles and the behaviors of our customers. As the year progresses and as we have more clarity, we would expect to narrow our outlook ranges. As I mentioned, the first quarter will be a tough compare, as the effects of the pandemic did not materialize until Q2. Therefore in the first quarter, we expect to see declines in our commercial businesses, similar to what we saw in the second half of 2020. With that context, we have bi-furcated our outlook, between what we are expecting in Q1 versus the Q2 to Q4 periods. So, for Q1, we see sales in the range of $14.8 billion to $15.4 billion, EPS in the range of $0.70 to $0.75 per share. And we expect to see a cash outflow due to seasonal factors and timing of collections. We expect the vaccine rollout, easing of international travel restrictions and increasing RPMs will enable sales growth to accelerate from Q2 onward, with total company sales growing between 5% and 8% on an adjusted basis and between 7% and 10% organically on a year-over-year basis for the Q2 to Q4 period. As a result, we see EPS growing approximately $1.10 year-over-year at the midpoint of our outlook range, in the Q2 to Q4 period. Because of the unique environment we're facing let me take you through some of the key assumptions, in our outlook. At a macro level, our assumptions for Collins and Pratt are based on vaccines being widely available in the U.S. by midyear, that there isn't another wave of the pandemic and that, RPMs improve meaningfully during the year. For example, in order for us to see the high end of our commercial aero ranges, we need to see sequential RPM improvement throughout the peak summer travel season of 20% to 30% each quarter, leading to a 40% to 50% year-over-year improvement. We are also assuming that load factors improve along with RPMs and corresponding growth in available seat miles which fuels our aftermarket. For RMD and RIS, we also expect volume to increase sequentially, as we execute on our strong backlog and that the DoD budget is implemented without delays. We also expect sequential margin improvement as our programs percent complete increase and approach a more normalized pre-merger level as we exit 2021. With that, let's move to slide 11 for the segment outlooks. You'll notice that we've included our sales and operating profit expectations for the year. Given the tough compare in Q1, we've also included our Q2 to Q4 outlook here as well. I should note, that the major variable for Collins and Pratt is the trajectory and mix of the aftermarket recovery, as you'd expect. I'll start with Collins, where we see sales for the year down high to low single-digits on an adjusted basis and down mid-single to down slightly on an organic basis. We expect full year operating profit to be in the range of down $275 million to up $25 million versus last year. I should note that military sales at Collins are expected to be up low to mid-single digits organically for the year. As we think about Q2 to Q4, we are assuming that we see a 20% to 30% year-over-year recovery in parts and repair sales and a 15% to 25% recovery of mods and upgrades and provisioning sales that drive total sales growth over the Q2 to Q4 period of mid-single to low double-digits. Turning now to Pratt & Whitney. We expect sales to be flat to up mid-single digits for the year and operating profit to be in the range of down $125 million to up $25 million. Military sales at Pratt are expected to be down slightly to roughly in line with last year after growing 14% in 2020. As we think about Q2 to Q4, we expect legacy large commercial engine shop visits to be up 25% to 30% year-over-year, which drive sales growth over the Q2 to Q4 period of low double-digits to mid-teens. Turning to the defense businesses. Let me first mention that we'll talk about these segments on a pro forma basis. First, this means we'll talk about both segments as though they were part of RTX for all of 2020. Second, we have aligned our reconnaissance and targeting systems and electrooptical innovations product lines from RMD segment to RIS to better align the businesses, which we've also recast. A summary of pro forma 2020 results inclusive of these impacts can be found in the webcast appendix. So at Raytheon Intelligence & Space, we expect full year sales to grow low to mid-single digits with strength coming from classified programs in ISR and space. And we see operating profit growing $125 million to $175 million. I should note here that as we look at Q2 to Q4, operating profit is expected to be up $175 million to $200 million. And at Raytheon Missiles & Defense, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits, driven by volume growth across multiple programs. We see operating profit up $25 million to $75 million. It's also worth noting that as we look at Q2 to Q4, RMD's operating profit is expected to be up $150 million to $175 million. Moving to Slide 12. We have provided an outlook for some below-the-line items. I'll also mention that we've included a multiyear pension outlook in the webcast appendix. Now turning to Slide 13 for our 2021 EPS walk, starting with the segments. While they're expected to be relatively flat for the year, as you can see, that's driven by the tough compare in Q1. We expect the segments to generate a little over $0.90 of EPS growth at the midpoint of the outlook range in the last nine months of the year. Pension will be a significant tailwind, primarily driven by adjustments to legacy plans, favorable interest rate movements and favorable asset performance. Our adjusted effective tax rate in 2021 is expected to be about 19% versus 17.5% in 2020 resulting from higher projections of U.S. income as well as some favorable tax results in 2020 related to prior years, which aren't expected to repeat. This will result in a $0.09 headwind. And corporate expenses interest and all other will be an $0.18 headwind at the midpoint of the range, primarily driven by a step-up for LTAMDS, as the program continues to achieve its development milestones in 2021, as well as costs achieve synergies and some higher interest expense. All of this brings us to our outlook range of $3.40 to $3.70. Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 14, just a few comments here before I turn it back over to Greg. As you know, we had $2.3 billion of full year pro forma free cash flow in 2020. When you take into account the 2021 timers that we've discussed, the extraordinary strength of RMD's international collections and the discretionary pension contributions we made, we saw a normalized operational free cash flow of about $3.5 billion in 2020. From there, as I've discussed previously, we expect about $500 million in 2021 cost to achieve RTX synergies and restructuring and to invest about $600 million in capital to implement structural cost-reduction actions that we've announced. Finally, we expect about $2.1 billion of operational growth, driven by improvements in working capital and operating profit to bring us to our outlook of about $4.5 billion of free cash flow for the full year. With that, I'll hand it back over to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Toby. So I know there's a lot of data that we just went through as it relates to the 2021 outlook. It's important that you understand kind of the baseline of what we're thinking as we provide the guidance for 2021. Obviously, first quarter is going to be a very tough compare because of the record Q1 we had in 2020. But we do remain confident in the full year outlook as well as the recovery in the back half of the year. Before I go on to the final slide here so number 15 for those of you following along. But before I go into our priorities, let me just take a minute to thank every member of the Raytheon Technologies team for their efforts in navigating a year of unprecedented challenges and particularly those on the production line and those in the SCIFs that came to work every single day during the pandemic to make sure we could meet our customer commitments. Really an incredible effort and that we thank you all. Okay. Let me close on an overview of our priorities. First, obviously, we're going to continue to support our employees, our customers and our suppliers as we always do. We do see brighter days ahead with the rollout of the vaccine, but we'll continue to remain vigilant about the health and safety of our employees. One of the priorities in supporting our employees, of course, is to promote a more diverse and inclusive workforce. DE&I remains high on our agenda and it's an imperative for how we do business. This will make us a better company, a better employer, and a better member of our community. To that end, I'm pleased to announce the appointment of a Chief Diversity Officer, Marie Sylla-Dixon, who joined RTX at the beginning of January. She's going to accelerate our ongoing initiatives. She's a member of my executive leadership team, and she's wasted no time in getting to work. Marie is responsible for leading our diversity equity and inclusion strategy and implementing the major initiatives of the four pillars of that strategy, that is talent management, community engagement, public policy and supplier diversity. Next, priority is continuing to invest and develop leading-edge technology and innovation. A key tenet of the merger was identifying ways to leverage our R&D capabilities and innovative technologies across both the commercial aerospace and defense markets, and bringing them together to create advanced products and solutions to meet our customers' complex and emerging needs. These technologies have the potential to generate billions of dollars in revenue synergies over their lifetime and are key enablers to capturing the full value of the Raytheon Technologies mergers. Executing on the integration also remains a key priority. We remain on track to deliver over $1 billion in gross cost synergies from the Raytheon merger, as well as $600 million in synergies from the Rockwell Collins acquisition. We're, of course, also continuing to be laser-focused on driving structural cost reduction. We've already executed on some significant actions and the team is working on a pipeline of additional opportunities. And of course, we're going to remain disciplined with our capital allocation balanced between investments in the business and returning cash to shareowners. Looking ahead, I remain excited about the future of the business as we approach the one-year anniversary of the merger closing. Our balanced and diversified portfolio of industry-leading commercial aerospace and defense businesses are resilient across business and economic cycles. And I'm extremely confident that commercial aerospace will recover. It's not a question of if, it's simply a question of when. And when it does recover, our focus on cost productivity investments and technology will position us to deliver higher margins, strong cash flow and significant value to our shareowners and our customers. So with that, I know a lot of data -- a lot of ground we covered, but let me open it up for questions. Norma?
Operator:
Thank you. The first question will come from the line of David Strauss with Barclays. Your line is open.
David Strauss:
Good morning. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Hey, David.
David Strauss:
Good morning, Greg. Yes, definitely a lot of data, appreciate it, taking me a couple of hours go through all that. Wanted to circle back on Collins and Pratt, and I guess the Q2 through Q4 guidance, could you give us any help in how we should think about kind of the exit margin rate at the end of 2021? Is Collins close to -- back close to double-digits and is Pratt kind of in the mid single-digit range? Just trying to think about where we exit the year. Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. David, this is Toby. Let me start and then if Greg wants to add, he can jump in. I think, the best way to think about it is to talk about and do a little contrast and compare around decremental and incremental margins. In the case of Collins -- and I'll kind of walk through the full year to give you the complete picture. In the case of Collins, we're going to see Q1 to be similar to what we saw in the back half of the year. Think of decrementals around 50%, again given the tough compare and the lower volume. That said, as we progress through the last nine months of the year, including into the back half of the year, we're looking at average 80% incremental margins -- aftermarket recoveries and in combination with the effects of the cost-reduction actions that we've taken. So, really good performance there based upon the assumptions that we talked about for the recovery. In the case of Pratt, a little bit different. Decrementals in the first quarter similar to Q2 and Q3 of last year around 40%, and then incremental margins in the Q2 to Q4 time frame on average about 30%, and what you’ve got to remember, you have the knock-on effect of the higher OE deliveries on the GTF and the negative engine margin that has some impact there. So, of course, as we said, we qualified and gave you our assumptions on what it takes to get this type of improvement, but we feel confident in the ranges we provided and the ability of the businesses to hit these targets.
David Strauss:
Great. Thanks very much. That's all very helpful.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure. Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS. Your line is open.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping you could touch a little bit on slide 13 versus 14 and the walk from 2020 to 2021. It looks like from the operational level, there's not much of a help in the EPS walk, but there's this big operational growth bucket that drives you from $2.3 billion to $4.5 billion on the cash flow side. So, maybe you could just unpack that operational growth bucket and why it doesn't show up in the earnings?
Toby O'Brien:
Yeah. So I think, Myles, it's Toby the – on page 13, when you look at the first element of that walk, the segments, it's essentially flat, almost $1 to the negative right because of Q1 and the tough compare, and as we said about the same just $0.90 at the midpoint of improvement in the second half. So, really what you're seeing on the EPS is the effects of Q1. If you go to 14, so let me try to give you a little color on the $2.1 billion on the operational growth, right? Really think of it in three buckets
Myles Walton:
That’s great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Rob.
Toby O'Brien:
Hey, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
This one is for Greg or maybe for Toby. If everything goes to plan in 2021, you're actually going to be adding to the $9 billion of liquidity by the look of it. As we look into next year or the year beyond, what do you think is a more realistic level of liquidity to have on the balance sheet moving forward?
Greg Hayes:
Let me start, and then Toby will correct me. As you think about it, I think we mentioned this in the early comments, we’ve got about $3 billion of excess cash on the balance sheet today because of the divestitures. And so as you think about 2021, we'll generate say roughly $4.5 billion, $3 billion of that goes to pay the dividend. And so that is the first priority for free cash flow, but we'll use another $1.5 billion for share buyback and maybe that will be a little bit more than that, we'll see, but I think -- we don't think we need $9 billion on the balance sheet. There's plenty of liquidity. We've got lines of credit out there. I would expect you'd see that $9 billion probably more in the $6 billion range long term, which gives us flexibility whether it's for some bolt-on M&A, or for some additional share buyback. And again, I think what's important is, we're going to return the $18 billion to $20 billion that we had committed to, but we want to grow the dividend as earnings continue to improve, and we want to be opportunistic. If we continue to see the share price kind of languishing in the 60s, we're going to be aggressive on share buyback. And again, we've got the capability to do that. We've got a very strong balance sheet. And we paid down $1 billion of debt in November. We've got another I think $0.5 billion this year to pay down. But the debt markets are still open and debt is cheap, so we're going to keep our options open. No big M&A. But obviously, share buyback will be the first – or the second priority after the dividend.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for the time.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
I wanted to ask about defense. Just given the EAC adjustments that we should be factoring in maybe for 2021 why aren't margins really expanding there and not really big incremental profit growth? Maybe, Toby, if you could touch upon that?
Toby O'Brien:
Yeah. So, I'll hit on both businesses separately. In both cases, we do expect to see some sequential improvement. In the case of RIS, there still is a little bit of a drag even though it lessens quarter-by-quarter, because of the EAC reset. I think in the comments we had in the opening comments, we talked about by the time we're exiting next this year not next year exiting 2021, we'd expect the EAC reset to be a nonfactor not talking about it anymore. So, you still see a little bit of that impacting RIS. You see the same for RMD. The other thing that RMD has -- so they're growing. Their revenue growth is really driven by the -- not the acceleration but the ramp-up on the multiyear award, the SM-3 SM-6 multiyear awards. And there's a little bit of a mix issue. Some of their mature international production programs are as expected winding down. So, while they're seeing some improvement it is a little bit muted because of those two factors. But longer term, we'd expect both of those businesses exiting 2021 into 2022 knowing what we know today to be able to continue to improve the margins going forward as well.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Good. Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Ron Epstein:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning Ron.
Ron Epstein:
When you think about all the cost actions you've taken and the realignment and all that how much of that do you see as permanent? And how much of that's going to come back when volume comes back? And then along the same lines how do you know you haven't cut too deep right when you think about the engineering force that you got rid of and so on and so forth. I mean how do you know you didn't kind of cut into the bone?
Greg Hayes:
Well, look I think we were aggressive in 2020 in terms of taking cost out. I think Toby took you through the numbers. We'll have about 20,000, 21,000 positions will have come out of the organization on the commercial side of the business over the last nine months between contractors and full-time employees. And clearly on the production side we'll see some folks added back as volume comes back. I think what -- if you would talk to Steve Timm at Collins and Chris Calio at Pratt, what they'll tell you though is what they don't want to do is bring back all of the indirects. And as Toby was alluding to we'll see very strong incremental margins on the upside. We did cut R&D. And again I think that was all appropriate. We've pushed out some programs. But that R&D some of that will come back but I don't think that we have stopped investing in anything that's key to the long-term. And if you think about -- even as we go into 2021, we're going to invest $5 billion, $2.5 billion of CapEx and another $2.5 billion of company-funded engineering. So, we're going to continue to invest where we need to and we're going to continue to have a very lean cost structure really to support this business going forward. And again what we want to do is drive margins higher, right? We still remain committed to the Collins margins up near 20% as the recovery comes through; as well as Pratt kind of the mid-teens margin. And to do that you're going to have to be focused on costs. So, we cut deep. We cut where we had to. But I don't think we have sacrificed the future in any way.
Toby O'Brien:
No. And I think Ron the only thing I'd add spot on with what Greg said. Even on the headcount reductions on the direct side as we continue to advance our focus on automation and digital and how we operate the business we're obviously going to look to as Greg alluded to right drive the margins and therefore not necessarily just automatically bring the direct part of the workforce back. And we certainly are going to look to not have any of the indirect come back. And remember there was about $1 billion worth of labor savings as a result of that and maybe half and half direct and indirect. And also all -- if not most all of that indirect won't come back. And some portion of the direct will but I don't think it all will.
Ron Epstein:
Okay. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks Ron.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Carter Copeland:
Hey, good morning gentlemen.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Carter Copeland:
Hey. Greg or Toby, I wonder if you could give us a little bit more color on this RMD DCS contract and just sort of what happened there in terms of regulatory approval. Is this a contract you were working on expecting approval or a contract with a customer that got truncated because of something? Just help us understand the -- what went on there. And is there any risk of similar sort of contracts happening again in the future? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. So, this is a legacy contract that we had for a customer in the Middle East. And obviously we can't talk about the customer. If you go back and look at the 10-K, you can probably figure out what specifically this is. But we had taken this contract. It was a direct foreign sale and we had assumed that we were going to get a license to provide these offensive weapon systems to our customer. With the change in administration, it becomes less likely that we're going to be able to get a license for this. And so we appropriately decided that we could no longer support the booking of that contract. It's not to say it won't ever happen but we took I think a conservative view to say given the new administration it's unlikely we're going to get a license for these offensive weapon systems for this Middle Eastern customer. Again, it's really the only one we have out there and again this is an offensive weapons system. If you think about Patriot and some of the other defensive systems, we have no issues with getting licenses. But offensive weapons a little bit more difficult. And so as we go forward, what we're going to do is we'll work with the DoD. We'll try and do these through FMS as opposed through direct foreign sales to make sure we've got alignment with DoD and the administration before we book any of these. But this is really kind of a -- it was a big contract, but it's a one-off and there's really not much else out there like this.
Toby O'Brien:
The only thing I would add Carter to what Greg commented on. We had a track record where we were successful on other similar contracts in the past in obtaining all the approvals. Even in this, one here what really flipped us to the fact of it not being probable was as Greg said the change in the administration. It was notified under the prior administration, just a little bit late in the game to get to the process. So our judgment changed and now we don't believe it's probable. And as Greg said, we did the proper accounting based upon that change in view.
Carter Copeland:
Okay. That's great. Does it signal any change of sorts in your growth expectations in that part of the world?
Greg Hayes:
No, no, no. Look peace is not going to break out in the Middle East anytime soon. So I think it remains an area where we'll continue to see solid growth. But again, it's just the nature of this weapon system is such that it's more difficult to sell it on a direct basis versus an FMS basis.
Toby O'Brien:
And this particular product right, the offense ammunition, the dependency in our revenue profile had been declining year-over-year. The volume on this peaked maybe three, four, five years ago. I may be off by a year or two, but it's certainly not material going forward and we didn't have a material expectation on it contributing to the results going forward.
Carter Copeland:
Great. Thanks for the color guys.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Noah.
Toby O'Brien:
Hey, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
Just going back to the effort to piece together the Collins and Pratt segment guidance. I guess to get into both the full year and then also the 2Q to 4Q Collins revenue guidance, it's just -- it's not a lot of growth in the back half despite the very easy compares and the potential for air travel to be recovering. It basically looks like that low $4 billion quarterly run rate that you stepped down to you would just kind of stay at through the entire year. And so have you just made very conservative aftermarket assumptions given that has the most -- kind of the widest range of possible outcomes in the near term? And then with the Collins margin on that an 80% incremental is a big number. I guess, how do you get that with that limited volume recovery? And therefore, is it safe to keep that next year with a better volume recovery before then settling into something more normal after that?
Greg Hayes:
So Noah, let me try and start in on that. I think what you have to think about in terms of the Collins and Pratt story is on the OE side the OEM side you are not going to see much growth in the back half of the year, right? That really is -- in fact, we're actually going to see on the Collins side probably a drop in OE because of the 787 going from 12 to five aircraft. Even with 737 coming online, we've already delivered about one-third of the inventory for the full year production at Boeing. So we're just not going to see a big step-up in the OE. So think about that as flat. On the -- and the same holds true at Pratt, right? We expect roughly flat production for A320s during the course of the year. Now there may be some upside, if they go to -- from 40 to 47, but we'll see. There's a lot of white tail sitting out there right now. So we're prepared to support it if it does. But frankly, we think we may be conservative. Keep in mind, that doesn't help margins, that actually hurts margin if OE goes up. What's important to keep in mind though is the aftermarket. And I think we have been optimistic in terms of the Collins aftermarket. But after a tough first quarter, we expect sequentially 10% growth each quarter in the Collins aftermarket from Q2 to Q3 to Q4. And margins obviously will get sequentially better because obviously the aftermarket growth is much better margin than the OE side. At the same time, provisioning which is a big piece of the aftermarket at Collins is probably not going to grow much because again that's all tied to OE delivery. So again, I think we've got a pretty decent recovery path on aftermarket. Could it be better? Perhaps. But keep in mind we're sitting here at the end of January. Q2 has got to grow 10% and then Q3. That means air traffic has got to start picking up soon. And RPM has got to continue to grow throughout the course of the year.
Toby O'Brien:
And so Noah to Greg's point, you're going to have that compounding effect of that sequential quarter-over-quarter growth. And you will see in this range here when you unpack it down just to the aftermarket as Greg said you will see especially as we get towards the end of the year, the growth in the aftermarket in both of those businesses high-teens 25% 30%, right? So there is some substantial growth expected from aftermarket and it is the one variable here that we are really trying to assess when we provided the level -- the ranges that we did for the year.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Yes. I mean, if I have OE flat and then the defense piece still growing and then aftermarket growing 10%, it's just spinning out higher numbers but...
Toby O'Brien:
I mean -- yes. Remember Pratt though defense is flattish, right? We had a real strong growth this past year 14%. So defense at Pratt at least is going to be more on the flat side. It could even be down a tad.
Noah Poponak:
Okay. Okay, I will keep iterating that, but I appreciate all the color. Thanks so much.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks, Noah.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Kristine Liwag:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Toby O'Brien:
Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi.
Kristine Liwag:
As air traffic recovers, how quickly should we expect commercial aerospace aftermarket to come back? Is it a concurrent recovery, or do you expect to see a delay? And I guess to put it another way to what degree would these cash conservation actions from airlines affect the pace of that growth?
Greg Hayes:
So I think, what we have seen historically is a lag between when we see RPM start to pick-up versus when we see aftermarket start to pick-up. Now we know that the airlines have done a lot in terms of cash conservation in 2020. They have deferred a lot of maintenance. They have diminished their inventory. So we're actually expecting to see a quicker rebound this time in the aftermarket than what we have seen historically because of the very, very deep cuts that the airlines have made in their stock of inventory. So it won't be a six-month delay, but it may be a few -- maybe a quarter off. But again, we're already starting to see inputs pick-up a little bit as air traffic has started to come back. And again it's simply a matter of time and we've got 10% growth as I said in Q2, Q3, Q4. That assumes we're going to see RPM growth in that same range.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. And you're getting it right, Kristine notwithstanding what Greg said about where there have been things that have been deferred that may create a demand a little bit earlier. Typically, you'd see the RPMs increase drive load factors up that in turn drive available seat miles up. And there is a lag there because it's really those ASMs in a normal environment that are going to drive the aftermarket for us. And that's where historically and as we've referenced before that we have seen a potential lag of six months plus or minus. One difference here as Greg said, we've got some pent-up demand, I guess, is the way to think of it that is a little bit of a mitigator towards that as we move through the year.
Kristine Liwag:
Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Thank you, Kristine.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open.
Peter Arment:
Hi, yes. Good morning. Hey, Greg. Regarding the free cash flow outlook the $4.5 billion. When we think about just the onetime structural CapEx investment outside of that you'd be probably over or near 100% conversion as you kind of approach the one year, kind of, mark on this merger. How are you thinking about your ability to kind of sustain that kind of 100% free cash flow conversion when we think about the longer term? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. Peter, I think, as we've targeted and we did prior to the merger we still think we can be generating $8 billion to $9 billion of free cash flow as the market recovers. And I think these cash conservation actions that we've taken some of them -- some of this is structural cost reduction all of that is going to help free cash flow over the long-term. So I don't think -- think about that $4.5 billion normalized if you take out the investments north of $5 billion that's going to continue to grow over the next several years back to that $8 billion to $9 billion that we had forecast. So there's no impediments in my mind to hitting 100% free cash flow and net income. We don't have to make bigger investments in CapEx. I'd tell you the one challenge as we look at cash flow in the out-years of course is the R&D amortization, the change in the tax law which will force us to capitalize R&D and then amortize it over five years, but we'll see what happens with corporate taxes. That's a 2022-2023 issue not a 2021 issue.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate that. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Peter.
Operator:
Thank you. And this concludes our Q&A portion. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hayes for any further remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Norma and thank you everyone for listening in. And as always, Neil and the whole IR team is available to answer your questions. I want to thank you all for listening in. Everybody stay healthy and be well. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Joelle, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are, Greg Hayes, Chief Executive Officer; Toby O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer; and Neil Mitchill, Corporate Vice President, Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thank you, Joelle, and good morning, everyone. For those of you following along, we're on Slide 2 of the webcast, just to spend a minute talking a little bit about the current environment. We've now passed the six month mark as Raytheon Technologies and I would tell you, I'm proud of the job the team has done with the integration, despite the fact that most of the work has to be done remotely. We obviously continue to operate in midst of one of the most difficult times the industry has seen. But we remain focused on delivering for our customers and protecting the health and safety of our people. Through the pandemic, we continued to invest in technology and innovation that's going to drive long-term growth while also maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and implementing tough but necessary cost reductions, including some structural cost actions that we will talk about later. Notwithstanding that environment, we delivered solid results in the quarter and we're pleased with the progress we've made with our merger integration and the decisive actions that will position us to emerge from the pandemic in a position of strength. Sales for the quarter were in line with expectations and adjusted EPS and free cash flow were better than expected. In fact, free cash flow was significantly better than expected at about $1.2 billion. On the defense side, backlog remains robust, over $70 billion. We've had exceptional bookings this year and we expect both of our RIS and RMD businesses to end 2020 with record backlog. At the same time, we continue to focus on what we can control.
Toby O'Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 4. While commercial aero headwinds persisted in Q3, our performance was generally better than we had expected. Adjusted sales were $15 billion, up about $400 million sequentially over Q2 including the stub period. Adjusted EPS was $0.58, better than our expectations, driven by acceleration of our cost mitigation actions and continued strength of military volume at Pratt and Collins. The lower effective tax rate in the quarter also contributed to a few cents of improvement. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.10 per share, down year-over-year and included $0.48 of net non-recurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments. This includes a net gain on dispositions of $0.17 per share, which was more than offset by $0.27 of acquisition accounting adjustments, primarily related to intangible amortization $0.26 related to charges due to the current economic environment, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and $0.12 of restructuring. Free cash flow of $1.2 billion was better than expected and included about $600 million of merger costs, restructuring and tax payments on divestitures. The better than expected cash flow was driven primarily by the timing of collections at RMD as well as in our commercial aero businesses and accelerated realization of our cash conservation actions, including inventory reductions at Collins. Moving to Slide 5, let me share with you a few data points that demonstrate the resiliency of our portfolio. Bookings at RIS and RMD have been exceptionally strong over the last year as demonstrated by the trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratios, where both businesses are well above 1, positioning us for continued growth across our franchises, both domestically and internationally. About 40% of the backlog at these businesses is for international customers. And military sales growth at Collins and Pratt continues to be very strong with organic sales growing 8% and 11% in the quarter and that's on top of 10% and 13%, respectively, in the first half of the year.
Neil Mitchell:
Thanks, Toby. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 6, adjusted sales were $4.3 billion in the quarter, down 34% on an adjusted basis and down 33% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the industry. By channel, commercial OEM sales were down 44%, driven principally by the impact of COVID-19, the continued 737 MAX grounding and the anticipated declines in legacy programs. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 52%, driven by a 51% decline in parts and repair, a 67% decline in provisioning, and a 44% decline in modifications and upgrades. Partially offsetting the headwinds in the commercial channels, defense sales were up 4% on an adjusted basis and up 8% organically, with strength across many of our key platforms and product lines. Adjusted operating profit of $73 million was down $1.2 billion from prior year and slightly better than our expectations for the quarter. Cost management actions, including lower E&D, continued synergy capture, and drop-through on higher defense sales were more than offset by lower commercial OEM and aftermarket sales and fixed cost headwinds. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we see Collins' fourth quarter sales and operating profit in line with Q3 and for the year, organic military sales are now expected to be up high single digit. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney, on Slide 7, adjusted sales of $3.8 billion were down 34% on an organic basis and down 28% on an adjusted basis, also driven by the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the industry. Commercial OEM sales were down 30%, driven by lower deliveries across Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada platforms, with the exception of the PW800 which saw a slight growth in the quarter. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 51% in the quarter. Growth in the GTF aftermarket volume was more than offset by the impact of a reduction in legacy large commercial engine shop visit inductions of about 55% and a 37% reduction in Pratt Canada shop visits.
Toby O'Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Neil. I'm on Slide 10. Let me give you a little perspective on the current environment as we look to close out the year. As we've seen throughout the year, military program growth remains robust, both domestically and internationally, and is contributing to our defense sales growth and our defense backlog. This backlog provides the foundation for future growth as we look ahead. As Greg mentioned, we also continue to execute on our previously initiated actions, including both synergies from our recent merger and the continuation of the Collins integration synergies and we're well ahead of the targets we set in Q1 for our cost and cash actions, with only 35% of our cost and about 25% of cash actions to go in the fourth quarter. Turning to the macro factors, commercial aero end markets remain uncertain. We saw a slight improvement in global travel in the third quarter and our Q4 expectations anticipate a slight improvement above Q3 levels. We are continuing to track air traffic trends and the condition of airlines on a daily basis, but the recovery remains slow. With that said, let me tell you how we see Q4. As we think about what this means for our business as a whole, we continue to see a gradual recovery in our commercial aero businesses beginning in Q4, combined with an inspected ramp at RIS and RMD contributing to Q4 company sales of between $16.2 billion and $16.4 billion. Moving to adjusted EPS, the continued defense growth, gradual demand recovery in commercial aero, and realization of additional synergies and cost actions are expected to drive EPS of $0.65 to $0.70 per share. Just a couple of things to keep in mind. We have provided an updated outlook on some below the line items as well as an update to the RIS and RMD outlooks in the webcast appendix. Also keep in mind that the fourth quarter will include about a $0.04 impact due to the incremental expenditures associated with the implementation of COVID protocols across our businesses, bringing the full-year cost to about $0.16 or in line with our previous expectations. Now turning to free cash flow, we continue to expect full year pro forma 2020 free cash flow of roughly $2 billion. This includes an outflow of about $1.2 billion for merger costs, restructuring, and tax on dispositions as we have previously discussed. In summary, we expect the fourth quarter to be another challenging quarter for our commercial aerospace segments, but continue to expect strong growth from our defense businesses. So, with that, I'll hand it back over to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thanks, Toby. So, first of all, let's just talk about priorities and then we'll get to Q&A. Obviously, first and foremost, it's the health and safety of all of our employees and keeping those people safe is job number one. And I'd be remiss if I didn't say thank you to all those folks who continue to come to the office, come to the factories, meet our customers' commitments. Yeomen's work and really the shoutout to the great work that's been done over these last six months. Of course customers remain at the heart of everything we do and this is about customer centricity and solving our customers' most difficult technical challenges remains our mission. And of course, keeping the supply chain healthy and robust is essential. On top of that, of course, though, we need to continue to invest in technology and product innovation. Even in these difficult times, we continue to spend money on next generation technology, both on the commercial aero and on the defense side of our business. Of course, we're going to continue to execute on the integration and deliver the synergies that we've committed to, the $1 billion plus that we'll see at the corporate offices from the Raytheon UTC merger as well as the $600 million of synergies that we've committed to from the Rockwell Collins acquisition. We are also of course going to continue to drive structural cost reduction. We've talked about a couple of those already, but there are more out there and we're going to continue to drive that as we always do. And lastly, we're going to remain disciplined in our capital deployment and maintain strong liquidity. Obviously with $10 billion on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, we feel very good about where we are, but we're going to remain disciplined. We do remain committed to the $18 billion to $20 billion of capital return to share shareowners during the first four years of the merger and we see that that -- the path to that very clearly today. So, with that, let's stop and Joelle, let's take some questions.
Operator:
Thank you. The first question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is now open.
Peter Arment:
Yes, good morning, Greg, Toby, Neil.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Maybe this is just for Toby and maybe Greg you may comment about it. Just trying to get a clarification on the unfavorable contract adjustment at Pratt & Whitney, I think $543 million. Can you give us maybe some more details on that and just what we expect if this is related to kind of power by the hour contracts, how we see that playing out? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure. So, there were three pieces to this, Peter. All of them were non-cash. So the charge was all non-cash related. They were all distinct and unique to specific circumstances. In one case, we secured a longer term, which will end up resulting in more predictable efforts on our part and a longer contract, which extends the life of that particular fleet. So that's good for the customer and good for us. The second one here, we revisited our estimates of flight patterns in light of the COVID-19 pandemic related to one customer and made an adjustment related to that. And then the last part of this, we took an impairment charge on some assets associated with a program where we've seen the development pushed out to the right or delayed. So three different situations, but all in total all non-cash related.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Carter Copeland:
Hey, good morning, gentlemen.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Carter
Carter Copeland:
Greg, maybe correct me if I heard you wrong, did you say 20% to 25% square foot reduction? Did I get that number, right?
Greg Hayes:
That is correct. We've got about 31 million square feet of office space. The original goal is to take about 10% of that out as part of the merger. We think we can more than double that with the kind of the new working arrangements that we've all become accustomed to. So the office of the future as we call it will be a mix of both office as well as people that will be working remotely.
Carter Copeland:
So, if I think about that across the segments, obviously I guess as part of the evolution in the cost reduction, it would be much larger than that in the commercial side of the aerospace businesses, but it seems like a big number.
Greg Hayes:
It seems like a big number Carter and, look, the fact we had 31 million square feet of office space seem like a really big number to me, but at the same time, for these last six months, as I've toured the country and visited facilities where we've got literally a handful of folks working there and everybody else is being efficient working remotely, it became very apparent. We don't need all the space. And I think the ability to work remotely with the technology that we have without losing productivity is essential in our go-forward plan. So there is a significant amount of cost to take out. Obviously we're going to start with our least offices and we've got a plan over the next five years to reduce that significantly. And again that's easy cost savings in my mind.
Carter Copeland:
And so the Pratt, that first one on the Pratt consolidation and the new facility there is -- so that's just consolidation of that footprint, not in-sourcing efforts or anything like that, just pure cost reduction?
Greg Hayes:
No, there is a whole series of things that Pratt is doing associated with this new facility we're building down in North Carolina. Some of it will be in-sourcing work from the supply chain, some of it will involve moving work from high cost to lower cost locations. Again, this is a multi-year program, but it's absolutely essential. We need the capacity because eventually demand will return and I think by the time this comes online in late 2023, we should see a return to kind of normalcy in commercial aerospace and Pratt will be well positioned with a much lower cost much, more automated production facility.
Carter Copeland:
Okay, great. Thanks for the color, Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Carter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Ron Epstein:
Hey, good morning, guys.,
Greg Hayes:
Hey, Ron
Ron Epstein:
Greg, maybe a bigger strategic question following up on your last comment. If you're thinking about the market getting back to some level of normalcy late '23, '24 or something like that and you look at your own balance sheet and you compare it to that of your competitors, particularly in the engine business, how are you going to use that balance sheet as we go into the recovery to your advantage? You look at Rolls, they seem kind of impaired. GE is a shadow of what they once were. So Pratt is sitting here with the strongest balance sheet in the industry, so how do you think about that?
Greg Hayes:
So, I think there is a couple of thoughts, Ron. Obviously, we were not going to go out and buy. We don't need to do any big M&A. I'll say that first and foremost. We will be opportunistic. There are a few things out there from a technology standpoint that you'll see us doing here. But those are, I would say, relatively low dollar types of transactions. It really just fills in some blanks in the canvas. The next opportunity I think is going to be, do we go back to share buyback. I think you will see that start up again next year. We think with the balance sheet that we've got, with the cash on hand, with the sale of Forcepoint now, there will be plenty of cash to start that back up next year. And if you think about the other thing we're going to try and do on the Pratt side is, we're going to continue to try and gain market share. And I don't mean to be reckless about it, but over the last year and a half or so, we picked up about 12 points of market share. We went from 43% to about 55% on the A320 family. And we think that's a reflection both of the technology as well as the efficiency that you're getting with the GTF engine. So we're going to use the advantage that we have to continue to gain market share and we're also going to continue to invest. And I think, Ron, as you know, this, you have to invest for the long term. It takes 10 years to develop an engine. It takes years and years to develop new radar systems, new weapon systems, and so we have to stay on the leading edge of technology. I want to use the dollars that we have to continue to strengthen the leading position we have in those markets.
Ron Epstein:
Great. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Ron.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Hey, Doug.
Doug Harned:
I wanted to understand a little more about how you're thinking about the trajectory on the aftermarket at Pratt, because I mean in that adjustment that Toby just talked about there, there is -- I think you said $400 million in there related to pandemic-related cost reduction -- cost adjustments. So when you think about this going forward, given that there is a fair amount of uncertainty around how we're going to see this recovery play out, how do you think about these adjustments? When are they appropriate to be adjustments and when do they become more normal issues if this extends for two or three years?
Greg Hayes:
So, Doug, let me be clear. As we took a look at all of the contracts that Pratt has, all the long-term contracts that Collins has this quarter, these three stood out as, I would say, things that needed to be adjusted based upon our view of the kind of return of normalcy to commercial air traffic. So we've taken a look at every -- I don't expect there is going to be a lot more out there like this. This is very unusual, the size of these adjustments. But, as you know, these -- some of those contracts were pretty onerous. This is some of the original early GTF contracts that were impacted by the pandemic and with the downturn in traffic, it was just natural to have to take these adjustments. The fact is, we don't think you're going to see a return to normalcy until probably mid-2023 at the earliest in terms of passenger traffic. And as a result, you're just not going to have the number of flying hours that we had expected. If it gets better, there might be upside on some of these contracts. We think we've covered the downside by all of these adjustments that we made. The same with the impairments that we took last quarter at Collins. Again, we think we have properly sized all of these now for what we believe to be the shape of the recovery and it's clearly not a V, all right. This is going to be a long, slow recovery. If you think about it, Pratt is -- let's see, Pratt's shop visits in the quarter, right, down about 55%. That's a little bit better than what we saw in the second quarter, which was down 64%, but that's going to take a long time to get back to the 2019 levels. And of course, all that is what plays into these contract adjustments.
Doug Harned:
So, is it fair to say that -- your sense is that even though we may have a tough Q4 ahead of us, Q4 maybe even Q1, that the adjustments that you've taken now, we're not likely to see another round of those given what you're seeing in the market?
Greg Hayes:
Well, I can never say never, but I would tell you, based on the assumptions that we've made in terms of this very slow recovery of air traffic and again our models pretty much mirror what IATA has been doing in terms of the recovery trajectory. Obviously what's going on right now with the resurgence of COVID is pressure testing those, but even with this second or third wave, whatever you want to call it, we still feel pretty comfortable with the models that we've used to make these contract adjustments to look at the impairment analysis are all pretty rock solid. Toby, any...
Toby O'Brien:
No, I think that's right, Greg. I mean, Doug, we have -- we're very comfortable with where we are, what we've taken adjustments on it. As Greg just described, I'll just reiterate his point. We can never say never because as an example, in our assumptions here, right, we have an assumption as an example that there will be a vaccine at a point in time. And obviously if that pushes right, keeps pushing right and people don't feel comfortable back to flying, then we'd have to revisit things. But the teams have done a good job working with our commercial customers to assess their situation. And again, as Greg said, we believe we've captured everything that we know about here through the Q3 results.
Doug Harned:
Okay, thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. My question was on Collins. How do we think about 1% margins in the quarter? And perhaps the contraction relative to peers is much steeper and I appreciate there is some idle facility costs in there too. Can you maybe bridge the profit decline today and how we think about that improvement back-to-high teens eventually?
Neil Mitchell :
Sheila, thanks, it's Neil. How are you doing? We're obviously watching the Collins margins. There's a lot of great cost reduction going on within the business, taking E&D down. Obviously, the head count merit furloughs. But I think when I think about the Collins margin story, this is -- really what you're seeing here is really strong aftermarket drop through that's not occurring right now. So we feel very good about the cost actions that are in place at Collins. And when that volume does return, and remember, typically that's about a six month lag from kind of when traffic recovers, we should start to see really good incremental margins at the Collins business. But I think they have taken all the right actions right now within their portfolio to address the immediate cost headwinds. We should see that come back as the market comes back. I don't know, Toby, if there was more that you wanted to add there?
Toby O'Brien:
No, I think you hit that right on. I mean, we saw 55% decrementals at Collins in Q2, right, and that's taken into account, as Neil said, the cost actions that we've implemented to-date. And it's a reflection of the strength of that aftermarket and how strong the business units within Collins are and 100% reinforce what Neil said. We should see the opposite on the upswing. There may be a lag, that six to nine month lag that Neil talked about and the mix of business, right. The mix of the revenue could skew things in any given quarter. But generally speaking, we'd expect to recapture that on the upside.
Greg Hayes:
Sheila, I would just make two other points. Obviously, the aftermarket at Collins is very profitable. I think everybody knows this, especially on the software side. And obviously we don't have the ADSP mandates this year, which is again a big chunk of the margin degradation. The other thing I just want to emphasize what Toby said. We have been burning down backlog at Collins. And so even though the aftermarket is down, I don't know, 50%, 55% here, we have been burning down backlog, getting past due. I don't expect we're going to see a upturn in aftermarket until sometime next year. Even if we start to see a recovery in the fourth quarter in commercial air traffic, which is still a question mark, I don't think anybody should be focused on 2021 to see a big uptick in the commercial aftermarket, primarily at Collins because there's a lot of excess material out there. There's a lot of folks still trying to do what they can to minimize costs. So this is not a one quarter, two quarter problem. It's going to be here for a while, but it is exactly as we had laid out in our outlook. So I wouldn't worry about other than the fact that everybody just needs to be aware, this is not a quick recovery in the aftermarket.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Okay, thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS. Your line is now open.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Myles.
Myles Walton:
You talked about the structural cost and you have Slide 3 in the deck and maybe it's just me, but I'm trying to reconcile the cost initiatives to long-term structural savings. And I know you did that with the Pratt turbine facility, but is there a way that you can sort of simplify all the actions you're doing and talk about it in the construct of run rate savings that you will be able to benefit from on an ongoing basis versus temporary cost reductions that come back into the system as you release temporary furloughs or pay merit deferrals and things like that?
Greg Hayes:
Myles, you actually hit on a good point, because a chunk of those savings this year are indeed, I would say, one-time cost savings. For instance, the furlough days, I think Pratt is taking 15 furlough days, Collins a similar number this year. Those types of cost reductions do in fact become headwind as we think about next year. Some of the other things -- so there is a merit deferral, there's the furloughs, again all those headwinds into next year. But at the same time, as I think about, we've reduced about 20% of the headcount on the commercial aero side this year so far. About half of that, I would say, will eventually come back as volume comes back. The key as you talk to both Chris Calio at Pratt and Steve Timm to Collins Aerospace is, we got to keep the other 50% from coming back. And that's what's going to give us leverage on the upside when we do indeed see a return to normalcy in air traffic. So again some headwinds next year from some of these temporary cost reductions, but there is long term structural cost reductions. Is it primarily overhead is you would expect, right. This is kind of taking folks out of procurement, taking layers of management out, reducing overhead really across the board. Again, all of it should lead to long term a much more efficient organization there.
Myles Walton:
Is it maybe half of the cost actions -- cost initiatives are structural?
Toby O'Brien:
So, I think the thing I'd add in, Myles, Greg focused a lot on the labor-related or employee-related cost there, right. Remember, we had a bucket around E&D reduction and also discretionary cost, right. So I think those two elements of our $2 billion, I think, you'd expect that we'd be able to sustain those so that there would be no headwind or tailwind, generally speaking, in 2021 relative to those two buckets. We would expect a favorable in 2021. We'd expect, related to all the employee-related actions, when you net the puts and takes, maybe $100 million, $200 million of favorability or tailwind, all else equal in 2021.
Myles Walton:
Okay, thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Kristine Liwag:
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Kristine Liwag:
Greg, with cash generation stable, how do you think about investing in next generation technology and sustainability? I mean, after COVID-19, carbon emissions in aviation would still be an industry issue. How do you think of investments in capabilities like hydrogen powered aircraft, especially with Pratt's long history with hydrogen?
Greg Hayes:
Yes, so that's actually a great question. Hydrogen obviously is a zero emission fuel. It's got better power density then Jet A. It does have a little bit of a storage problem on aircraft. You can't put hydrogen tanks into the wings of an aircraft. So what you're talking about from a commercial aerospace standpoint is probably a 2035 or so entry into service of a hydrogen-powered aircraft. We continue to work with that. For us, on the engine side, whether you're burning Jet A or whether you're burning hydrogen, it is not that different technical problem and I think we're pretty well positioned there to help with the aircraft OEMs as the exporters. Airbus has an active program on hydrogen, I suspect going well as well. But again, we're sitting here in 2020, that is a 15-year time horizon. We're going to continue to invest because, as you say, sustainability will be an issue. Now the GTF, we are in a long way, right. There was a 16% better fuel burn, about 50% better on the emissions. Even that, we've recognized we've got to do better. So, we're going to invest in hydrogen. We're also going to invest in hydrogen on the defense side because I think what you'll see is VOD money will come faster than some of the money that the commercial OEMs want to invest in this. So, we're well positioned. We've got the technology. And I think it is the future of aviation, but it's a way out.
Kristine Liwag:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Toby O'Brien:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Toby, a technical question for you. Obviously a better than expected on the Q3 cash flow, but you didn't raise the cash guidance for the year. So I was wondering if you could explain some of the moving parts there.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. So, as Greg mentioned and I did, I mean, we're real pleased with what the teams have been able to do around cash flow, in particular. The favorability here that we saw in the quarter, primarily timing related at RMD and Collins related to customer collections. And we also saw some inventory reductions ahead of schedule, primarily at Collins and a little bit of favorability on the timing of some cash tax payments. But again, real strong performance. When we think about the year and we maintain the $2 billion, as you said, we think we have some flexibility there, some opportunity, again timing related around collections. We may be looking at potentially funding discretionary pension contribution that we're considering and still be able to deliver the $2 billion in the pro forma free cash flow. So we're feeling good about it for the year, highly confident delivering that along with some of the flexibility that I just mentioned.
Robert Stallard:
That's great. Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays. Your line is now open.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, David.
David Strauss:
I guess, Greg, first of all, any sort of update on the MAX, when do you expect to start to shipping there. And a follow-up on cash flow. I think, Greg, you had previously mentioned in some public appearance that you expect significant growth in adjusted earnings next year. How are you thinking about cash flow next year once you add back the $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion one-time cost that are running through cash flow this year? Would you expect free cash flow to actually grow next year off that base? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
All right. Well, let me start with the MAX and we'll have Toby take you through your cash question. Although, just to be clear, we're not going to give guidance on 2021 today. You guys will have to wait as we sort through all this. But as far as the MAX goes, I think we have delivered all the black label software that's all being installed now. You saw Europe has already granted the certificate back on the MAX and return to flight. We expect we'll see here in the late November, early December, the US airlines start to return MAX to service. All of that is very good news I think in the long term. It's not going to have a huge impact on Collins next year. As we said, we've delivered most of the inventory associated with the ramp up next -- for next year's production. I think, right now we probably have, I don't know, 80% or so of the inventory already delivered to Boeing to support 2021 production. So, you'll see a gradual ramp up in 737 at Collins, but it's pretty small in the back half of the year.
Toby O'Brien:
So, on cash, David, a couple of things, right. Just to reinforce, we feel good about the ability of the business to generate cash flow, as we work up the recovery curve here in the pandemic and as Greg said earlier, we remain committed to the $18 billion to $20 billion of cash being returned to shareholders. That said, at a high level, yes, we would expect 2021 cash to be better than this year. But that said, without giving you a number per se, let me give you a couple of the moving pieces just for folks to think about for 2021. So, kind of along the lines of Myles' question about the cost actions, the majority of the savings related to the planned cash actions this year we think are sustainable for next year, right. So kind of a push, if you will, on a year-over-year comparative basis. That said, we will have some non-recurring cash items of that $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. There could be $500 million to $600 million of that that would extend next year. That would be a headwind. The way we're thinking about CapEx, we have a goal to keep it on an operational basis similar levels as 2020. I just mentioned that given the strength of our cash flow this year, we maybe have some flexibility in our considering a discretionary pension contribution. And in part, pension, while it will still be cash flow positive next year, it won't be as positive there. There is, call it, $850 million of headwind due to higher required contributions that again depending upon how we see this year playing out, we may address this year and we will see some incremental spend on the structural actions related in particular to the couple of things Greg mentioned about the new facility and how we're thinking of our office space, as well as synergies. Again, that could be $0.5 billion in that ballpark there. From a working capital point of view, we would expect or do expect improved turns in 2021 where we're -- believe we're going to be able to sustain current levels of working capital until we see the volume start to recover. So, still a lot of moving pieces and of course, the other thing here, we've had a really strong year in cash on the defense side of the house. Some of that's timing. So we're going to have to factor in how sustainable that is over the 2021 timeframe. And of course again probably the biggest variable here is the shape of the recovery and how the volumes come back in the related cash flows. So a lot of moving pieces here and as Greg said, we'll quantify on this tier on our Q4 call in January.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Robert Spingarn:
Hi, good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning,
Robert Spingarn:
Toby, just wanted to follow up on what you're talking about with cash flow. Maybe set a base on the defense side, if we could shine a little light there. But if we think about Raytheon free cash flow $3.6 billion last year and UTX defense cash has to be fairly substantial and again they're both growing this year. Can we think about 2020 defense free cash flow ballpark $5 billion? Is that a fair place to be before we then start factoring in everything you just talked about?
Toby O'Brien:
2020 defense cash flow including Pratt and Collins?
Robert Spingarn:
Yes.
Toby O'Brien:
So, I think what we've said, Rob, and this hasn't changed too much, right, maybe a little bit, but we had talked about the $3.5 billion, $3.6 billion that you mentioned for Raytheon in kind of from 2019 and seeing that play out here this year. I think we'd also said that back in 2019 that Pratt and Collins component was close to $4 billion last year. Obviously, a big impact to that this year. We are seeing strength this year on the Raytheon side of the house, particularly at RMD with collections. And again, the question is, will that continue here in the fourth quarter and provide some flexibility. But that's really give and take between '20 and '21 obviously, right, if that happens to continue. And then for this year, we had also said Pratt and Collins combined including the military was around breakeven, give or take, right. And again, we're seeing things play out generally that way with a little bit of favorability on the legacy Raytheon side going forward. I don't know if I'd get into the $5 billion. I think that's maybe a bridge too far right now to go that far with overall defense cash flow.
Robert Spingarn:
And then just, Greg, a clarification. You mentioned a lot of excess material, I think you were talking about Collins. But just in general, are you seeing more USM activity now than earlier in the pandemic and what's the trend on that?
Greg Hayes:
I'm sorry, one more time with the -- you're talking about usable material...
Robert Spingarn:
Used serviceable material. Yes, competing with your spares at both businesses, I suspect.
Greg Hayes:
Yes. So, look it is obviously something that we keep a handle on. There is a large influx of used material primarily because there have been a slew of retirements. Now, if you think about that on the Pratt & Whitney side, that's primarily some of the old Pratt's 2000 and PW4000. Those were nearing the end of their useful life. We weren't seeing a huge amount of aftermarket anyways, because it was already serviceable material out there. There is a lot more now. Obviously the GTF, not so much. We haven't -- we still got our arms around that. And even on the V, I mean, you're still flying that plane. It's still one of the more efficient. So not a big concern of serviceable material on the Pratt side today, although we'll keep an eye on it as time goes on. The Collins side, it's obviously a lot more complicated, given the diversity of the product line. But there is some serviceable material out there. It is I think already having an impact. It's one of the reasons why aftermarket is down the way it is. And that's again why we're cautious about the recovery trend on Collins aftermarket. Again, everybody is doing everything they can from a cash conservation standpoint and that is even cannibalizing aircraft to keep other aircraft flying. So, I think until we see a return to normalcy and until the airlines can get to a positive cash flow status operationally, I think we're going to continue to see pressure from serviceable material. But again that's in the numbers already and it will continue here for some time.
Robert Spingarn:
Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
I'll just add one thing to that. Greg mentioned it at the aftermarket, the way it's performing right now. One of the reasons it is, is because time of material is down, but visits under contract are there, the customers have paid for those as the engines have flown and they are coming into the shop with a slightly different work scope. But we do like our position with those engines that are under contract and that will position us well for continued aftermarket when the recovery occurs. So, we're going to take one more question, Joelle, and then we'll wrap up the call.
Operator:
Thank you. And that question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Noah
Noah Poponak:
In whatever year global air traffic is back to 2019 levels, without speculating or specifying that year, just whatever year that is, in that year, do your pre-pandemic merged company cash flow targets stand?
Greg Hayes:
I wish my crystal ball was that clear. What I will tell you, Noah, is that there will be a divergence in terms of the timing for when you see 2019 levels of air traffic or passenger traffic recover. There will probably be a six to nine month delay before we see our overall aftermarket business on the commercial side pick back up. At the same time, I think we feel really good about the defense side of the business. So whatever year that is, will things be back to normal, who knows? All I would say is, we're going to position ourselves so when the recovery does come, we're in a much better position from a cost standpoint. So in fact, cash may actually be good by the time that recovers, just because of all the costs that we've taken out of the business. But clearly the aftermarket will be the bellwether in terms of when we see a full return to normalcy.
Toby O'Brien:
We may get there in different way than we had envisioned when the merger was contemplated, to Greg's point, and if we don't, it would just be that, call it, six month delay, because of the timing of the aftermarket. But other than that, all else equal, knowing what we know today, I think your statement would directionally be correct.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, great. And then just one clarification for the items you gave us for cash flow next year, Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes.
Noah Poponak:
If I heard you correctly, you were describing working capital as being approximately flat year-over-year on the balance sheet. So approximately no change on the balance sheet and therefore the bridge from EBITDA to free cash flow for the year would be better in 2021 compared to 2020 by whatever this final few billion dollars of negative working capital is going to be in 2020.
Toby O'Brien:
I think what we're saying is, with the actions that we've put in place this year where we're three quarters of the way through and a big chunk of that close to $1 billion, right, was inventory related reduction. When we exit the year, we feel we're going to be at a way -- a point where we can sustain that level, see turns improve in 2021 until we start to see more of a return in the volume as we work up that recovery curve.
Noah Poponak:
So basically, is it the case that you do not expect any major year-over-year change in working capital on the balance sheet '21 versus '20?
Toby O'Brien:
Right now, today that's our going-in assumption, but I think as Greg said, we'll give you more of a detailed update in January. We'll try -- what we wanted to try to do here, absent guidance or an outlook for '21 is at least give you some of the major moving pieces on it. So any of these could change a little bit, but...
Noah Poponak:
And working capital is always a moving target. I'm just trying to figure out such a giant number again like it was this year or...
Toby O'Brien:
No, I think, give or take for now, I would say, your thought process is okay.
Noah Poponak:
Okay, thanks very much.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes, sure.
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thank you all for listening. Just a wrap up thought. I know everybody's mind is focused on the pandemic and the significant impact it's had on commercial air traffic and on our commercial businesses. Clearly difficult times, but I would remind everyone, two-thirds of our business is defense related and those businesses remain strong with over $70 billion of backlog. That defense business also gives us the ability to continue to invest through this cycle and to make sure that we have the right technologies for the future. So, I know it's tough out there, but I think everybody should keep in mind, we're in this for the long term. We've got great liquidity, great cash position, and great people, and great technology. So, with that, thank you all for listening. Neil and the crew will be around all day today and tomorrow to take any follow-up questions. Have a great day and stay safe. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ursula, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Good morning. And welcome to the Raytheon Technologies second quarter 2020 earnings conference call. With me on the call today are Greg Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Toby O’Brien, our Chief Financial Officer; and Neil Mitchell, Corporate Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com. Please note except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding net non-recurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC’s SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to one question per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue as time permits. With that, I will turn the call over to Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Kelsey, and good morning, everyone. I’m on slide two of the webcast here. Let me just begin by providing an update on some of the current priorities and highlights of Q2. As everyone knows, these last several months have been incredibly challenging. However, we remain focused on supporting our key stakeholders and that starts with ensuring the health and safety of all of our employees. That is our number one priority. We also remain committed to delivering for our customers across commercial aerospace and defense. On the defense side, that means providing our customers with mission critical products and services in the U.S. and internationally. On the commercial aero side, that means supporting customers during this very difficult time to make sure that planes fly safely, especially as airlines begin to ramp up capacity again. We also continue to engage with our suppliers ensuring that they have the support needed to maintain stability while also working with them to make their processes more efficient. Just a word on the merger, now we’re just about 100 days into this and I would tell you that we remain focused on the integration across the organization and on delivering our cost and revenue synergies.
Toby O’Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Greg. I’m on slide three. As Greg mentioned, no surprise, Q2 was a challenging quarter. Before going through the second quarter results, it’s worth noting that since the merger completed on April 3rd, our second quarter results include legacy Raytheon company from that point forward. Adjusted sales were $14.3 billion and better than our expectations due to better volume at Collins, Pratt and RMD. Adjusted EPS was $0.40, also better than our expectations driven by accelerated progress on our cost mitigation actions in the quarter favorable volume primarily at Collins and RMD, and the adjustment for certain charges driven by the impact of COVID-19 on the industry and economy. On a GAAP basis EPS from continuing operations was a loss of $2.56 per share, down year-over-year, which included $2.96 of net non-recurring and/or significant items, and acquisition accounting adjustments. Of which $2.34 was related to charges due to the current economic environment, primarily driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the largest piece being $2.13 related to an impairment of Collins Aerospace goodwill and intangibles, and the remainder attributable to customer bankruptcies and collection risk, and contract charges from anticipated lower future flight utilization. The other $0.62 consists principally of $0.28 of acquisition accounting adjustments, primarily related to intangible amortization, $0.21 of restructuring and $0.04 of merger and integration related expenses. Free cash flow was better than expected at an outflow of $248 million, including $165 million of merger cost and restructuring. The better than expected cash flow was driven primarily by the timing of advances and collections, as well as accelerated progress on our announced cash mitigation actions including inventory reduction at Collins. Moving on to slide four. While the second quarter was as challenging as expected, we continue to see a number of trends that confirm the resiliency of our balanced portfolio. Our defense backlog was up versus the first quarter and grew to a new record of $73.1 billion. RIS had a book-to-bill ratio in the quarter of 1.17 and RMD of 1.22, giving us a consolidated RIS and RMD book-to-bill ratio of 1.2. Collins Military and Pratt Military also had strong sales growth in the quarter, growing 10% and 11%, respectively. Positive news that our franchises are healthy and will support solid growth in our defense portfolio for the next few years.
Neil Mitchell:
Thank you, Toby. Starting with Collins Aerospace on slide five. Adjusted sales were $4.3 billion in the quarter, down 36% on an organic basis and down 35% on an adjusted basis, driven primarily by the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on the aerospace industry. Commercial OEM sales were down 53% driven by lower volume across all platforms, including the continued 737 Max grounding and anticipated declines in legacy programs. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 48%, driven by a 45% decline in parts and repair, a 57% decline in provisioning and a 45% decline in modifications and upgrades. Partially offsetting the headwinds in the commercial channels, military sales were up 10%, driven by strength across key platforms and product lines, including higher F-35 volume. We also saw growth on development contracts in the quarter. Adjusted operating profit of $24 million was down $1.3 billion from prior year, dropped through on higher military sales, aggressive cost management actions including lower A&D and continued synergy capture were more than offset by lower commercial OEM and aftermarket sales and fixed cost headwinds. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide six. Adjusted sales of $3.6 billion were down 32% on an organic basis and down 30% on an adjusted basis, also driven primarily by the pandemic’s impact on OEMs and operators. Commercial OEM sales were down 42% driven by lower deliveries across Pratt’s large commercial engine and Pratt Canada platforms, with the exception of the PW800, which saw slight growth in the quarter. Commercial aftermarket sales were down 51% in the quarter, growth in the GTF aftermarket was more than offset by the impact of a 64% reduction in legacy large commercial engine shop visit inductions and an approximate 40% reduction in Pratt Canada shop visit. Ramping JSF production continues to drive sales growth at Pratt’s military business. Military sales were up 11% due to higher aftermarket sales across key platforms and increased F-35 production volume. Adjusted operating profit of a loss of $151 million was down $603 million from the prior year. Significant aftermarket volume reductions, fixed cost headwinds and unfavorable military contract adjustments more than offset drop through on higher military sales, cost mitigation actions and slightly lower negative engine margin. Turning now to slide seven. RIS reported sales were $3.3 billion, pro forma sales, including the four days stub period were $3.5 billion. Sales were primary impacted by expected declines in the Warfighter FOCUS program, which represented a little over 4 points of sales headwind and that was partially offset by higher airborne system sales and broad growth across other RIS programs.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks, Neil. I’m on slide nine now. As you know, there are a number of factors, some headwinds, some tail winds and the number of unknowns affecting the macro environment and our business going forward. Let’s start with the positives. Military program growth remains robust, both domestically and internationally, and is contributing to our strong defense sales growth and a record defense backlog, nothing really changing here from our previous expectations. We also continue to execute on important actions to position the business for long-term value creation. Our merger synergies are progressing well and we remain on track to deliver nearly $200 million of gross RTX synergies and an incremental $150 million of Rockwell Collins acquisition cost synergies this year, which will bring the total for Rockwell to $450 million of our $600 million target. We are also on track to deliver our previously discussed $2 billion of cost savings and $4 billion of cash conservation actions in 2020 and we will continue to manage the business proactively to respond to the current and developing environment. We now expect to realize approximately 30% of our announced cost actions in Q3 and approximately 40% in Q4. This is after we already achieved around 30% of our cost actions in Q2. And as Greg highlighted, our liquidity position remains very strong and we have ample financial flexibility. It’s no surprise, however, that given COVID-19, the overall macro environment and commercial air traffic in particular are significant unknowns. We are tracking air travel trends across the globe on a daily basis. While they are generally improving, recovery is slow, and while we continue to monitor these trends, as Greg said, we now see the recovery being protracted over several years at least through 2023. We also continue to monitor the financial condition of global airlines and the health of the supply chain. Given the significance of these factors on our business, there continues to be too much uncertainty to provide an outlook. But let me tell you, how we’re thinking about the second half of the year. Let’s start with Collins. We continue to see commercial OE sales down in line with OEM production levels and aircraft delivery schedules. Generally consistent with the decline we saw in Q2. We see Collins commercial aftermarket sales down in line with expected RPM declines and the impact of the ADSB mandate headwinds. Where we expect Q3 sales will largely be in line with Q2 plus or minus and expect to see a gradual recovery in Q4. For Pratt, we continue to see commercial OE sales in line with our main OEM customers, similar to what we saw in Q2. Well, GTF overhaul activity continues as we upgrade to the latest configuration, we expect Pratt’s aftermarket sales to be down given the more than 50% decline in legacy shop visits. We still expect that Pratt Canada will be down in the back half of the year, but not as severely as the large commercial engine business due to the differences in their end markets with business jet and general aviation markets showing better recovery. Moving to the military portion of Collins and Pratt, we continue to see strength in military sales and still expect to see mid single-digit growth, excluding the impact of the two pending Collins divestitures. So, again, no change here. I will also note, there aren’t any changes to the RIS or RMD sales or adjusted operating profit outlooks that we gave on our first quarter call. As we think about what this means for our business as a whole, we continue to think Q2 will likely be the lowest quarterly sales and EPS in 2020. Looking at sales in the back half of the year, we would expect sequential sales improvement, modest in Q3 and then better Q4. For EPS, we would expect Q3 to generally be in line with Q2 with some puts and takes, and then a gradual recovery beginning in Q4, as demand begins to return and more of our cost actions are realized. A couple of other items to keep in mind for the second half of the year, as we have discussed, we’ve implemented significant COVID protocols across our businesses and are incurring a number of incremental expenditures associated with the pandemic, including enhanced facility cleaning, employee temperature scanning, higher freight cost and other COVID related in efficiencies. We expect around $0.08 of EPS headwind related to these costs for the rest of the year. More than initially expected, bringing the full year total cost to approximately $0.16 of a headwind. For free cash flow, we still expect pro forma 2020 free cash flow for the full year of roughly $2 billion. This includes an outflow of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion for merger cost restructuring and cash taxes on dispositions as we have previously discussed. As we think about our cash actions, we still expect to realize the majority of the benefit in the back half of the year, with approximately 30% of our cash actions in Q3 and approximately 45% in Q4. In summary, we expect the rest of the year to be challenging for our commercial aerospace segments, but continue to expect good growth from our defense businesses and we’re positioning the company for a strong recovery. With that, I’ll hand it back over to Greg to wrap things up.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks, Toby. We’re on slide 10 now and maybe just a couple of points. I think, obviously, a lot going on in the quarter, a lot of uncertainty out there. I think, just to be clear on a couple of things. While there’s a lot of uncertainty, we’re going to remain focused on supporting our employees, our customers and our suppliers. This includes ensuring the health and safety of our workforce, first and foremost. But also delivering advanced technologies and innovative products for our customers and working with our suppliers to maintain the stability of the supply chain. I guess, it’s important to remember, in the quarter, we still invested $500 million in A&D on a commercial aero side. This isn’t important as we think about the long-term. We’re not going to sacrifice long-term for short-term. We’re going to take some tough cost actions. We’re going to do what we need to do but we’re going to continue to invest for the future. And of course, we’re going to continue to execute on the integration of the merger and the Rockwell acquisition, as Toby said, and we’ve got a clear path to meet or exceed those expected synergies. Also, I think, it is important to remember, we’re going to remain disciplined with our capital, ensuring that we maintain financial flexibility, while prioritizing capital areas that will maximize value for our customers and shareowners. Despite all the uncertainty out there, we still remain committed to return $18 billion to $20 billion of cash to our shareholders in the first four years after this merger. As I said, we’re also taking a hard look at the businesses given the environment and the prolonged recovery, and we’re going to take additional actions as we think is -- are appropriate. We will be nimble. We’re going to remain focused on what we can control and we’re going to adapt to the current environment and position our commercial aero businesses for growth, while also maintaining solid growth on the defense portfolio. Overall, the opportunities and furloughs remain significant and I’m confident we’re going to emerge from this crisis in a position of strength and deliver sustainable long-term value for our customers, for employees, our shareholders. So, with that, Ursula, let’s open it up to questions. Thanks everyone.
Operator:
The first question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you. I guess Greg or Toby, your biggest diva driver Collins declined 98% year-over-year, yet free cash flow was essentially breakeven. So can you maybe talk about free cash flow trends in aero or commercial? And what you’re seeing in terms of working capital and cost savings. Toby, you mentioned is, running at 30% ahead of your 10% target, so any thoughts on those moving pieces and how it relates to free cash flow in 2020 and going forward?
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. So, I’ll take the last part of that first, Sheila, that, the $2 billion of cost actions, $4 billion of cash preservation conservation actions are assumed and they were assumed back in Q1 and the $2 billion for the year. The good news is, we’re seeing accelerated execution on those and realization. Obviously, that helps to derisk the back half of the year. In the quarter, obviously, the drop through of 30% versus we’d expected about 10%, that 20% incremental improvement helps cash flow at both Pratt and Collins. So that was a good guy in the quarter compared to our expectations. And I believe that both Pratt and Collins are also doing a really good job of managing their inventory. I think Collins held it flat through the first part of the quarter and actually saw a little bit of a reduction as we move through to the end of June, which contributed to some of the favorability of the Q2 cash flow there. So things are on or ahead of schedule, but again, really timing related relative to the work, the Pratt and the Collins teams have done to accelerate those actions. And the other thing I’d throw in there, we saw real strong collections from a cash flow point of view on some large international collections at RMD, not the commercial aero side of the house but RMD that favorably impacted Q2 and those were expected in the back half of the year as well.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Sheila. It’s Greg. Just to highlight just a couple of things. Again, we’ve got $1 billion of cash actions in the first quarter. And that was without or second quarter rather -- that’s without really impacting our inventories. Yet, we’re really just starting to see the benefits of inventory reduction in the supply chain. If you think about the -- by the fourth quarter, we would expect probably a $0.5 billion of tailwind from reduced material inputs. You’re also going to see a ramp up in savings from headcount actions. Again, about half of this cost savings in the first quarter -- second quarter were headcount related, that number is going to almost double by the end of the year. So, again, we’re taking the actions and we’re really confident we’re going to see these improvements throughout the rest of the year.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Great. Thank you.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Rob.
Toby O’Brien:
Hi, Rob.
Robert Stallard:
It’s pretty one for Greg and it’s more of a conceptual question. Basically, we seem 2Q airline activity if you are at RPMs or ASMs down a huge number, 80% or 90% and your aftermarkets, I think, down around 50%. What’s the risk that aftermarket could actually get worse from here, given this disconnect between the revenues you’ve seen and what the airlines have seen in 2Q?
Greg Hayes:
I think, Rob, what you need to think about is, what is the actual number of aircraft flying today. We think it’s the total flights are down about 50% and so well air passenger traffic is down 80%, which is better than the 95% it was. There’s still planes out there flying around and around, again down 50%. That’s really what we’re basing the outlook on. Obviously, as we think about the pieces of the aftermarket, some pieces are more impacted. If I think about spare parts for instance at Collins Aerospace, which is a key driver of profitability, that was down almost 75% in the quarter. Repair was down like 55%. The forecast, Toby, was talking about for the back half of the year, assumes a modest recovery, picking up in Q4 and I think that’s the key as we think about the back half of the year is, will we see that modest recovery, and again, the recovery is going to take several years. But right now it’s hard to imagine, probably, getting anything worse than what we saw in Q2, assuming, again, this -- we still see about 50% of the current aircraft flying out there.
Robert Stallard:
That’s great. Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Hi. Yes. Good morning, Greg, Toby.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Peter.
Peter Arment:
Greg, just a quick question on sort of when you talk about the cost reductions, have you kind of been able to identify what you think is ultimately going to be permanent versus kind of the temporary actions to give you a real benefit when we think about exiting 2020?
Greg Hayes:
Yeah. So, look, I think, as we think about the cost reduction that we saw on the quarter. You got about $200 million of A&D actions. You took about $100 million of discretion spending and the other $300 million was really employee related. Some of that employee related costs will come back. Those are furloughs -- for those of -- us at the corporate office there’s a 10% furlough or 10% salary reduction with deferred merit. Some of those costs will come back. I think it’s important to note, the commercial aerospace reduced to about 8,000 positions. Some of those will come back with volume. Some of them will be permanently reduced. And one of the things that I’m really focused on right now as we think about a recovery that may well take into 2023 is we need to take a look at some of the more structural costs that we have in our aerospace organization. That is cost in some high cost manufacturing locations. What can we get after to restructure those businesses later this year? So we’ll come back. The guys are looking at it and it’s going to be some tough things to do, but I think this is the opportunity to alter the overhead structure of the commercial arrow businesses. Again, I think, this is -- it’s unfortunate, but it’s absolutely necessary given the market.
Peter Arment:
Appreciate the details. Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Peter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.
Carter Copeland:
Hey. Good morning, team.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning, Carter.
Toby O’Brien:
Good morning, Carter.
Neil Mitchell:
Good morning.
Carter Copeland:
Greg, I wondered if you could maybe just give us some color on the customer conversations. I mean, it’s got to be especially a Pratt, tough conversations around cash management for most of the airlines. And why don’t you just give us some color on what it is that those customers are seeking to do to the extent that you’re collecting power by the hour, you have power by the hour arrangements? Are you collecting all of those payments or is there any deferment there, any anything you can give us there will be helpful? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yeah. Carter, look, we’re working with each one of our customers to make sure they’ve got the financial flexibility to stay in business for the long-term. So we’re -- I won’t give you any specifics on any individual customer, but I would just say, we’re trying to be as flexible as we can with payment terms and with cash flow. Obviously, part of the charges we took this quarter were a recognition that some of the receivables out there, probably, are not collectible, because of where the industry is today. I think what’s important though is, as we think about Pratt’s customer base. Of all the GTF powered A-320s out there, 65% of those are flying today, 75% of the A-220s are flying, that is the OC series. Well, only about 45% of the V’s are flying. So if you think about most of the power by the hour contracts like 80% of the GTF powered aircraft are under a long-term maintenance agreement of power by the hour. Those contracts remain in place and people are flying the airplane. So it’s not all doom and gloom out there. I would tell you, there’s some green shoots we’re seeing and we’re going to continue to work with our customers to make sure that they remain viable.
Carter Copeland:
Great. Thank you for the color.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks, Carter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss:
Thanks. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Good morning.
Toby O’Brien:
Good morning.
David Strauss:
I wanted to ask about Collins, so the OEM decline somewhere down 53%, obviously, more than, I think, the decline we’re seeing your manufacture production rates. Can you talk about kind of how that breaks down between, manufacturer production rates being down, the Max impact and any sort of stocking you’re seeing? And then, Greg, maybe can you touch on the decrementals that we saw at Collins, I know Collins remain profitable, but the decrementals were pretty big. Do you think this is the kind of the low point or worst point for Collins there? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Toby will talk about the decrementals to start out, our decremental margins as you would expect because of the aftermarket down so significantly were north of 50%, I think, almost 55% decremental margins. Clearly, this should improve as we go through the quarter, especially as we take additional cost actions to take up some overhead, but the aftermarket is tough. I think if you think about the other issue that you’ve got at Collins is, they have been disproportionately impacted by the slowdown of 737. Recall, we’ve got about $2.5 million of content per 737. With the latest production schedule from Boeing on 737 with this kind of slow ramp in production, I doubt we’ll be shipping any 737 related inventory, probably, until the next half of next year. And so while the, overall, I would say, we expect the commercial OEMs to be down roughly 40% or so. You’re going to see a bigger impact at Collins in the near-term as they are going to be more impacted by the 737 than anybody else?
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. And I think, I’d add too, right, your question about the Max and ADSB, right? There are about a point each of headwind going forward, pretty consistent with our prior expectations. And just piling on a little bit what Greg said about the decrementals, not inconsistent with what we had outline back at Q1. We said north of 50%, as Greg said, about 55% in the quarter, that’s for overall, right, when you take into account, aftermarket would be greater effects of the absorption. We do expect that will improve a little bit as we move through the year and especially as the cost reduction actions take further hold. And maybe just to complete the equation, Pratt saw about 40% decrementals. Again, pretty much as we expected, not as severe, because of course, they don’t have margin on the large engine shipments from an OE point of view. So, again, even there with Pratt nothing unexpected compared to what we outlined back on the May call.
Greg Hayes:
David, just one other point to keep in mind, so if you think about the Collins numbers. There’s $100 million of cost or charges in the quarter associated with idle facilities. That is the plants that we have that aren’t operating at full capacity. So, again, those decremental margins are all in. So, I think, again, they’re taking cost out, but we got to get after the overheads still.
David Strauss:
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.
Ron Epstein:
Yeah. Hey. Good morning, guys.
Toby O’Brien:
Hi, Ron. Good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi.
Ron Epstein:
Hey. Toby, please dig down a little bit more in the cash, just trying to sort out, when we think about what portion of the cash came from the defense business versus what portion came from the commercial business. I think on a pro forma basis, if you look at last year, is it safe to assume about two-thirds of the performance cash was from defense and maybe one-third from commercial?
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. I mean, I think, the way to think of it, Ron, in the quarter here, right, both Collins and Pratt consume cash, right? The two combined north of $2 billion, right? So, the favorable performance, again, that, those results were favorably impacted by the cost of actions or they would have been worse and then we saw real strong collections on the defense side, as I mentioned, with the pulling of some large international payments on the RMD side. And I didn’t mention it earlier, but RIS saw some good quarter end collection pull as well. So that that’s kind of big picture the two sides of the house and how the cash flow played out in the quarter.
Ron Epstein:
And how would you expect that to go maybe for the rest of the year in defense, anyway?
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. So -- yeah. Yeah. So we’d expect, obviously, the defense businesses, the legacy RIS and RMD to continue to generate positive cash flow both in Q3 and Q4, more bias it -- towards Q4, consistent with the traditional cadence that the legacy Raytheon had seen. I’d expect Collins to be able to generate, albeit maybe a little bit, but positive cash in Q3, Pratt will still be a little bit negative and then both Collins and Pratt positive cash flow in Q4 and when you bring that all up to the company level, for the balance of the year consistent with the pro forma $2 billion outlook, Q3 neutral-ish plus or minus, maybe a little bit positive here. Remember, we have some below the line items, some of these non-reoccurring items, we’ve got $500 million plus or minus of tax payments on the divestitures that, Greg alluded to in his opening comments, and alike. So, Q3 breakeven maybe a little positive and then the balance of the cash $1.8-ish positive in Q4.
Ron Epstein:
Great. Thank you very much.
Toby O’Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. Hey.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Myles.
Myles Walton:
I was wondering if you could maybe in Pratt’s commercial aftermarket down 51. What was large engine versus Pratt Canada? And then the other question, Toby, maybe you can just talk about the working capital that you’re building this year and you’ve talked about it previously as billions of the headwind in this year and just curious if you can make any comments about the relief of that into ‘21 and ‘22?
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. So let me start with the working capital. Some encouraging signs, I will start initially, some encouraging signs from an inventory point of view in Q2 with both Pratt and Collins, as I alluded to, a little bit earlier. From an overall working capital point of view, we also are pleased with the collections we saw. It -- working capital did grow in the quarter really because of disbursements that outweighed the benefits that we saw from the collections and the management of the inventory. We would expect based upon the actions, right, as a subset of the $4 billion cost-related -- cost and cash conservation actions, a meaningful benefit in the back half of the year from working capital initiatives primarily around inventory $500 million, $600 million, $700 million even $800 plus, obviously, driven by Pratt and Collins. So things are on track for that. Moving forward into next year, we’re not going to quantify anything today, but we still expect to make further improvement from a working capital point of view. In 2021, as we size it right to reflect the demand that we see, and obviously, there’s variability in there, as we talked about on -- in the opening comments around the shape of the recovery and the cadence of it.
Myles Walton:
And then the Pratt commercial, can you just subdivide the large engine versus PWC?
Greg Hayes:
Yeah. So if you think about the large commercial aftermarket was down about 55%.
Myles Walton:
Okay.
Greg Hayes:
That was really led, of course, PWC2000 was way down like 80%, the V was down like 60%, so -- and GTF was actually not down. But then if you look at Pratt Canada, again, their business was down 40%, but if you think about their aftermarket that was down 40%, most of that, and of course, the high profit spares area about 55%
Myles Walton:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Greg Hayes:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jon Raviv with Citi.
Jon Raviv:
Thank you and good morning. So just on pitching the defense side for a second, Toby, you -- back at Raytheon, you guys had talked about there being good visibility. You’re talking about, again, on the call today, a good visibility of growth sustaining for several more years. I wonder if you could give us an update on -- more specifically, how do you see that growth sustainability playing out based on what’s in your backlog and pipeline. And then also, how is the company position to manage a potential defense recession, if you will, if you do see some of this worried budget pressure flow through? Thank you.
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. Sure. So, on the first part about the visibility in the future growth, I’d say, things haven’t changed, right? We talked about a record -- another record backlog, the legacy defense businesses, strong book-to-bill in the quarter, the $1.2 that we mentioned. They’ve strung together three really strong quarters going back to Q4 about 1.55 book-to-bill, 1.46 in Q1, and Pratt and Collins, as we talked about are growing nicely this year. So we remain very confident based upon the strength of the backlog, recalling that backlog, a little bit of a shift to longer duration, longer term programs with the multiyear awards for SM-3 IB and also SM-6 that help provide more visibility into the future. Combine that with the pipeline, our programs are well funded, the alignment to the national defense strategy, our continued strong position with classified bookings, we talked about $1.4 billion RIS in the quarter. We’re on track for the year with north of 20% classified, which provide the development and the funding of future technologies that lead to new franchises. International remains strong, still about 30% of the business. Greg mentioned the $2.3 billion award for KSA TPY-2 and we’re performing well on our LTAMs program, which before we’ll be moving into the initial production in 2022. So, we continue to be very optimistic about the ability to continue to grow the defense business for the next several years.
Greg Hayes:
Yeah. Look, Jon, I would just say that, we know defense spending is not going to be going up in the in the near-term, given the deficits that are out there. And I think, as Toby said, we’re uniquely positioned because of the backlog at $73 billion. But also, I think, importantly, in those areas where we have real strength, which is in the classified, in the cyber and in the space businesses, again, lots of opportunity there. Again, we don’t expect we’re going to see much growth in the defense budget at all, but we still think defense is a strong national defense is a bipartisan issue. So no matter who’s in the White House, no matter who’s in leading Congress. We still expect the need for a strong national defense will remain. So I’m not forecasting -- we’re not forecasting any gloom and doom scenarios here for defense in the next few years.
Jon Raviv:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
Noah Poponak:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Toby O’Brien:
Hi, Noah.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Noah.
Noah Poponak:
On the aerospace original equipment side of the business, can you just give us a little more detail on whether or not the pull from Boeing and Airbus into their production plan has changed meaningfully versus three months ago? And if you could speak to manufacturer or in particular Max versus non- Max, that’d be helpful?
Greg Hayes:
Well, I would tell you, I don’t think anything has changed materially in the last three months. Obviously, as Boeing has firmed up its 737 Max production schedule. That’s obviously had an impact especially in the near-term on the Collins outlook for OEM deliveries. I would tell you that, Pratt is fully aligned with Airbus deliveries this year and next year. We’ve been out. We’ve talked to every single one of our customers who’s going to be taking GTF powered aircraft and I think we are fully aligned there. I mean, that’s about a, as we would say, roughly a 40% reduction in GTF volume in the A-320s in the next year and a half here. So, again, I don’t think there’s been any change beyond -- really beyond the 737 Max.
Noah Poponak:
And that Max change, is it more of a refinement around the specific timing of the return to service or is it a more substantial change than that?
Greg Hayes:
Well, it’s really, it’s two things, it’s -- first of all, it’s just a refinement of the schedule in terms of, we expect some time here in the probably end of the third quarter, early fourth quarter that the -- that we get their ticket back. Obviously, we’re working with Boeing to make sure that that happens. But also it’s -- the ramp that we’re going to see in the production is slower, I think, that anybody had anticipated. On top of that is, as Boeing has gone through and looked at the inventory levels that they have for all of our equipment. That’s what really caused us to take a pause and say, you know what, we probably aren’t going to be shipping much 737 hardware until the back half of 2021. So, again, that’s really been the refinement, if you will, it’s the inventory on hand, as well as a little bit slower ramp.
Toby O’Brien:
And I would just add, when we look at OE volumes all together taking Boeing, Airbus, the Pratt Canada customers, it coincidentally is in about that 40% ballpark relative to a year-over-year decline that, Greg referenced relative to Pratt, obviously, there’s some puts and takes in there. And as Greg explained, with the Boeing situation, because of the inventory on hand, our future revenue may look a little bit different than their deliveries, but it’s for that factor there.
Noah Poponak:
That’s all really helpful. The inventory alignment is not demand and the RTS is not demand, the slower ramp is in demand. But -- am I hearing you correctly that that has been a modest change versus a major change?
Greg Hayes:
Yeah. That’s really a modest change, I think, again. It’s just a refinement of the schedule based upon the timing…
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah.
Noah Poponak:
Got it.
Greg Hayes:
… of return to service. And keep in mind, that every aircraft that gets delivered today, somebody is also retiring an aircraft. So we’re trying…
Noah Poponak:
Yeah.
Greg Hayes:
… to work with the customers to understand exactly who’s going to take what, when.
Noah Poponak:
Super helpful. Thank you.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks, Jon.
Greg Hayes:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.
Robert Spingarn:
Hi. Good morning. And just on that last note, the visibility, Toby, looks like you’re backing out unfavorable contract adjustments and bad debt expense from Collins and Pratt to get to your adjusted operating profit. So I wanted to ask you how much visibility you have into the sufficiency of those charges and how non-recurring they may actually be in the COVID environment.
Toby O’Brien:
Yeah. No. Good question. So, you’re right, we did back out charges in those categories or cost in those categories, it’s about $0.21. They do relate to the economic impact of COVID and the effects on Pratt and Collins. I will tell you, a small portion of these were in our original estimates, okay? But as the quarter evolved, new information came to light, as we talked about, around the timing of recovery, pushing out to ‘23, more airline bankruptcies. And so, the reserve amounts and the EACs had a threshold where it was significant enough to be adjusted out of our earnings, given the magnitude and the unique nature of things. I would look at this as being rare and not indicative, right, of our underlying business performance. Because when you look at that you’re talking $400 million in the aggregate, roughly $200 in each of the two segments. And then on top of that, you mentioned the bankruptcies, right, and I am probably off, but it was at least five in the quarter, right? So in normal periods of time, we’re not looking at five bankruptcies in a quarter, right, if you go back to pre-COVID. We have made these estimates with the best information available, taking all the facts into consideration around bankruptcies, collectability, the effect of the lower flight hours that it has on our EACs, so we’re confident in the values that we recorded here in the quarter and then subsequently adjusted out.
Robert Spingarn:
Yeah. I think…
Greg Hayes:
I just…
Robert Spingarn:
Yeah.
Greg Hayes:
I was just going to say, I think, what you -- the thing to keep in mind, we’ve tried to take a conservative view of the customer’s ability to pay. And so, again, this is a -- it’s an unusual thing to do in terms of taking the charges or this bigger charge at this time is very unusual. But, again, it’s a -- obviously an unusual time in the industry. So I wouldn’t expect that there would be more big charges. But you can never, if somebody big goes bankrupt, you just don’t feel -- we can’t forecast, right? So we’ve tried to be conservative but not draconian here.
Robert Spingarn:
Greg, on that, have you seen customer health improve in July, let’s say, or toward the end of Q2? Is the trend up in terms of bad debt and customer ability to pay in demand?
Greg Hayes:
If you’d asked me that question early in June, I would say, things are getting better. I would tell you, advance bookings are not looking up right now, given what’s going on with the infection rate in this country and around the world. So, if anything, as we looked at this at the end of the second quarter, we did that with keeping in mind that this is going to be a tough year for the commercial aerospace customers. And again, most of the airlines, their financial health is going to be stretched as these passenger volumes remain low. So, again, I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you whether or not there’s more out there. I just think we’ve tried to do our best job we can in terms of the environment as we see it today.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. Thank you.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Ursula, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Seth Seifman with J.P. Morgan.
Seth Seifman:
Okay. Thanks very much and good morning.
Greg Hayes:
Hi, Seth.
Seth Seifman:
Just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the working capital, so on a net basis including defense, the build was fairly modest in the quarter. And it sounds like you’re expecting some significant improvement on the aerospace side in the back end -- half of the year. So, should we still be thinking about a working capital build of billions across the company by year end ‘20? And also on the flip side of that, about a working capital release opportunity of that magnitude in the coming years or have you guys been able to flatten that out?
Toby O’Brien:
So, I think, we’re -- I won’t say that we are totally flattened it out, but again, consistent with accelerating the underlying actions to support the $4 billion of cash conservation, we have started to flatten that out. Here in Q2, we do expect, again, primarily in the back half of the year, maybe even a little Q4 biased a reduction in our working capital, right, as these initiatives continue to take hold. Pratt and Collins are doing a good job, balancing and managing their supply chain and inputs in a very balanced way taking into account that we need to maintain the health of the supply base. So we would expect as a subset of the $4 billion of cash conservation to see a benefit from inventory and working -- as a subset of working capital and overall working capital reduction by the end of the year. That said, at the company level, obviously, part of that’s from RMD and RIS defense side of it, and we’d still think that there’s an opportunity in 2021 to further reduce working capital and adjust more with the demand signals tied to the shape and the cadence of the recovery.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks very much.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks, Seth.
Greg Hayes:
Okay. Thanks everyone for listening in today. As always, Neil and Kelsey and the Investor Relations team will be around all day to answer whatever questions you might have. Thank you for listening and stay safe. Take care. Bye-bye.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today’s conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. My name is Ashley and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Good morning and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. With me on the call today are Greg Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Toby O’Brien, our Chief Financial Officer, and Neil Mitchell, Corporate Vice President, Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies’ website at www.rtx.com. Please note except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding restructuring costs and other significant items of a non-recurring and/or non-operational nature, often referred to by management as other significant items. Before we get started, just a few comments on the structure of the business and our leadership team. Concurrent with the merger, we realigned the segments to create four industry-leading businesses
Greg Hayes:
Okay, thanks Kelsey, and good morning everyone. Just a few things going on, and I recognize this is a--it’s a little bit confusing. But before we get started, just one logistical item to cover here. As everybody knows, we completed the spins of Carrier and Otis on April 3, concurrent with the merger with Raytheon which created Raytheon Technologies. Since the transaction occurred right after the close of the first quarter, the Carrier and Otis results are of course included in our numbers for Q1. However, we’re not going to discuss that today because they’re going to be holding their own earnings calls later today and then again tomorrow morning for Carrier, so our commentary today is going to only cover the new Raytheon Technologies, which of course is simply a focused A&D company. With that, as we turn to Slide 2 in the webcast, let me just begin my remarks by talking about the COVID-19 pandemic and what we’re doing to fight or help in the war on the pandemic. First, let me just thank our team, and particularly those in the production lines who are supporting our customers worldwide. I also hope that you and your families are safe. To put this in perspective, we have about 195,000 employees at Raytheon Technologies. Roughly 95,000 of those folks are working from home today and the other 100,000 are coming to either the office or to the factories to support our customers. Just to keep in mind, our top priority is to ensure the health, welfare and safety of all of our employees, so we’re focused on making sure we’re doing everything we can and to implement best practices. We’re of course deep cleaning our facilities daily between shifts, we’re temperature scanning our employees upon entry, we’re rotating shifts for social distancing and providing appropriate personal protective equipment for employees that can’t work from home. The preliminary cost of that is going to be about $0.08 to $0.10 for the year. Also, those costs will be incurred throughout the rest of the year. It’s a necessary expense, however, to ensure the safety of our folks. Maintaining business continuity is also essential in order to support our commercial and defense customers during this time, as we always do. We’ll continue to serve our customers with mission critical products and services in the U.S. and internationally, and importantly help them rebound when this is over. To support the frontline workers, we have donated nearly 1.5 million pieces of PPE to healthcare professionals and first responders globally. We’re also using our 3D printing capabilities to manufacture 20,000 face shields per month and we’re working with suppliers to provide parts to support production of ventilators. In fact, our business in the U.S. and our business in Canada have actually come up with designs for ventilators, and we’re working with local governments to begin manufacturing. Supply chain stability of course is also top of mind. We’ve engaged with thousands of our small business suppliers to support them, including disseminating relevant COVID-19 information and working with them to enhance and make processes more efficient. In terms of the impact on the business, the pandemic has led to unprecedented economic uncertainty and of course a huge slowdown in commercial aerospace. While both standalone UTC and Raytheon began the year with a strong start, it’s clear the rest of the year is going to be under significant pressure as a result of the pandemic. Notwithstanding those challenges, however, we expect the rest of the year Raytheon Technologies continues to be well positioned to deliver value over the long term. At the same time, we’re going to take immediate and necessary actions to reduce costs and to ensure we maintain a position of financial strength and market leadership so that we can emerge from this crisis stronger. To that end, we’re taking about $2 billion of cost reduction actions and about $4 billion of cash conservation actions on the commercial aerospace side. I will discuss this in further detail in the next few slides. Turning to Slide 3, I want to underline why this merger is even more important given the environment we face. As the world’s most advanced A&D systems provider, our portfolio is balanced and diversified against commercial aerospace and defense, as well as across geographies. This enables us to be resilient across business and economic cycles, evidenced by strong Q1 defense bookings and a record defense backlog of over $70 billion at a time when commercial aerospace is facing severe headwinds. Interestingly, Raytheon had a great first quarter book to bill of 1.44 and came into the merger with $50 billion of backlog. The legacy UTC aero businesses had about $20 billion of defense backlog, so stronger together, clearly. Our key defense franchises are also well funded, and most importantly we’re well aligned with the national defense strategy which is expected to shape future DoD budgets, and when the aviation market and passenger traffic rebound, and they will, we will be even better positioned to deliver solid growth. Additionally, the scale and complementary nature of our combined businesses allows us to continue to invest for breakthrough technologies for our customers as well as identify opportunities for technology revenue synergies. With that, just a few highlights from our four industry-leading segments. Let me start with Collins Aerospace. Collins saw continued capture of synergies in the first quarter with nearly $60 million, and that’s on top of the $300 million we realized last year. Collins remains on track to achieve about $600 million of cost synergies - that’s from UTC’s acquisition of Rockwell Collins in late 2018. Collins is particularly well suited with its air management interiors business to also provide solutions to the airline industry to further enhance passenger health and safety. At Pratt, the GTF engine program achieved two significant milestones as the first in-service GTF engine exceeded 10,000 service hours and, more importantly, the program reached 5 million revenue flight hours across the combined GTF powered fleet. Importantly, also at Pratt, the Joint Strike Fighter program delivered the 500 production aircraft, and we’re just getting started with both of these programs. Great future. At Raytheon Intelligence and Space during the quarter, the U.S. Air Force awarded RIS the Force Element Terminal Development program. That’s expanding our family of advanced beyond line of sight terminal, our FABT franchise to modernize and secure communication terminals on both the B-52 and the RC-135 aircraft. Finally, our missiles and defense business booked over $2 billion on the standard missile 31B multi-year during the quarter. Shortly after the quarter closed, RMB was also selected by the U.S. Air Force to develop the long range standoff weapon, a strategic weapon that will replace the service’s legacy air launch cruise missile. That’s a great, great achievement for the company. This franchise will be worth approximately $10 billion over its lifetime. I think the most important takeaway, though, is each of these businesses is a leader in their respective markets and are all well positioned to generate significant value over the long term by combining technologies to generate revenue synergies across all of our businesses. Slide 4 - fundamental to our success is the strength of our financial profile, and let me be clear - the balance sheet is strong and our liquidity position is solid. Following the merger, we had about $8.5 billion of cash, net debt of about $25 billion, and a solid investment-grade credit rating. Combine these with a $5 billion revolver and a new $2 billion revolving credit facility and we have plenty of financial flexibility. That’s before an additional $2 billion or so of proceeds from the previously announced divestitures, the majority of which are anticipated in the second half of the year. As I mentioned earlier, we’re taking immediate actions to reduce costs by $2 billion and preserve liquidity with $4 billion of cash actions. We’re reducing capital expenditures and A&D investments, we’ve deferred merit increases across the commercial businesses, and we’re cutting discretionary spending, just to name a few. While many of these measures have been difficult, it is the right thing to do for the business. We’re also on track to deliver the billion dollars in gross cost synergies that we committed to when we announced the merger last June. We’ve got a strong execution track record and an excellent playbook from Rockwell Collins and Goodrich acquisitions. After months of integration planning, our teams are working seamlessly as one company and we’re already executing on the detailed work plans to drive our synergy commitments. Regarding share owner returns, as you might expect, we will not be repurchasing shares this year given the current environment; however, we do remain committed to return significant capital to share owners. As a result, the return of the $18 billion to $20 billion that we outlined last June will more likely take place over a four-year versus a three-year time frame. We also remain committed to the dividend, which our board approved last week, and we have sufficient cash and liquidity to maintain a competitive dividend even in this very difficult environment. Finally before I turn it over Toby to take you through the results, let me make a comment on how we’re thinking about our outlook. Given all the uncertainty in our commercial aero business, we’re not going to provide a Raytheon Technologies outlook at this time for 2020. Toby will give you some important information on how we’re thinking about the business and we’ll be back later in the year to provide more color as the situation continues to evolve. With that, let me turn it over to Toby to take you through the first quarter results.
Toby O’Brien:
Okay, thanks Greg. Moving to Slide 5, as Greg said, in spite of the developing COVID-19 pandemic, Q1 was a good start to the year for Raytheon Technologies. Since the spins and merger occurred on April 3, our reported Q1 results for Raytheon Technologies reflect the legacy United Technologies standalone results, which include Carrier and Otis. Going forward, Carrier and Otis will be reflected as discontinued operations and Raytheon’s legacy business will be included from April 3 onwards. Reported sales were $18.2 billion, down 1% versus prior year, including flat organic sales and one point of FX headwinds. Adjusted EPS was $1.78, down 7% versus the prior year, which you’ll recall is above our expectations for the quarter. Within the quarter, segment profit growth was more than offset by approximately $0.10 of COVID-19 related charges, the majority of which was non-cash within Pratt & Whitney and Collins. Except for interest, below the line items were higher versus prior year, as expected. On a GAAP basis, EPS was a loss per share of $0.10, down year-over-year and included $1.88 of net non-recurring charges and other significant items, of which $1.66 related to the portfolio separation charges, $0.18 from non-cash impairments primarily related to Carrier and Otis, and $0.02 of restructuring. Just a quick comment on our tax rate in the quarter. You’ll note the reported effective tax rate for the first quarter was 98.5%, which was a result of tax separation expenses. On an adjusted basis, the effective tax rate was 22.4%, which is closer to the effective tax rate that we expect for RTX going forward in 2020. Free cash flow was better than expected at approximately $250 million and included about $700 million of one-time cash separation payments. Total cash separation payments in the quarter were approximately $1.5 billion, of which approximately $700 million was reflected as financing outflow, principally associated with make whole payments in connection with the early retirement of debt. Turning to Slide 6, Raytheon Company, while not included in Raytheon Technologies’ first quarter results, had a strong first quarter with bookings of $10.3 billion and a book to bill ratio of 1.44, leading to a record backlog of $51.3 billion. Net sales were better than expected at $7.2 billion, up 6.5% year over year. It’s not on the page, but cash flow from operations was also better than expected at an outflow of $98 million in the first quarter or a $313 million improvement versus the prior year - a solid start to 2020. With that, I’ll hand it over to Neil to talk through the segment results and then I’ll come back and share a bit about how see the current environment.
Neil Mitchell:
Thank you Toby. Starting with Collins aerospace on Slide 7, sales were $6.4 billion in the quarter, down 1% on an organic basis. Commercial OEM sales were down 12%, driven by the 737 Max grounding and anticipated declines in legacy programs, partially offset by new program growth driven by the A-320 NEO, the 787 and A-220. Commercial aftermarket sales grew 3% driven by provisioning, which was up mid-teens, and parts and repair, which was up mid single digits, partially offset by high single-digit declines in modifications and upgrades driven by anticipated lower ADSP mandate volume. Military sales were up 10% led by higher F-35 volume, and we also saw continued solid performance in our mission systems communications, navigation and guidance solutions, and ISR businesses. Operating profit of $1.1 billion was up 3% from prior year with 80 basis points of margin expansion. Drop-through on higher military and commercial aftermarket sales and continued synergy capture of an incremental $60 million, as well as favorable FX and contract settlements in the quarter were partially offset by headwinds from lower commercial OEM sales and approximately $40 million in COVID-related charges. Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 8, sales of $5.4 billion were up 12% on an organic basis. Commercial OEM sales were up 25% driven by GTF and PW800 deliveries, which were partially offset by anticipated declines in V2500 production and lower deliveries of other PWC engines in March, driven by COVID-19 impacts. Commercial aftermarket was up 4% in the quarter. Growth in the GTF aftermarket was offset by a reduction in legacy shop visit inductions. Pratt & Whitney Canada aftermarket saw growth from higher shop visit content and a customer contract close-out partially offset by lower shop visits. Ramping JSF production continues to drive growth at Pratt’s military business. Military sales were up 16% on higher aftermarket sales across key platforms and increased F135 production volume. Adjusted operating profit of $439 million was down 2%. Operating profit benefited from drop-through on higher military sales, continued GTF cost reduction, lower E&D, and a customer settlement. These benefits were more than offset by higher G&A, which was primarily driven by COVID-related reserves of approximately $60 million, FX headwinds, and the absence of the Q1 2019 divestiture and licensing agreement for approximately $30 million. Commercial aftermarket operating profit was flat driven by a customer contract close-out offset by GTF and legacy sales mix. Turning now to Slide 9, I’ll talk through the legacy Raytheon businesses’ Q1 results. As Toby mentioned, while these results are not included in Raytheon Technologies’ first quarter reported results, we thought it would be helpful to share how these businesses perform. You will find a reconciliation from the former legacy Raytheon segments to our pro forma new segments in the appendix. With that said, starting with RIS, for Q1 RIS sales were $3.6 billion, operating profit was $379 million, and ROS was 10.6%. Of note, RIS also booked approximately $350 million on the GPS next generation operational control system, or GPS OCX program, and it’s worth mentioning the former Raytheon SAS business grew sales 15% driven by higher volume across numerous programs. Additionally, the former Raytheon IIS business saw operating profit decline $45 million, primarily due to $34 million of gains from the first quarter of 2019 that did not repeat. Moving to RMD, Q1 sales were $3.9 billion, operating profit was $573 million, and ROS was 14.9%. At legacy missiles, operating profit was up $49 million or 26% driven by higher net program efficiencies. At legacy IDS, operating profit was up $79 million or 31% driven by higher net program efficiencies, including $35 million from a contract settlement. In addition to what Greg mentioned, booking highlights in the segment during the quarter also included approximately $500 million to provide advanced Patriot air missile defense capabilities for the Kingdom of Bahrain. With that, I’ll hand it back to Toby to provide an update on the current environment.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks Neil. I’m on Slide 10 now. As Greg mentioned, we are clearly in uncertain times, particularly for our industry. That said, not everything about our future is unknown. There are several factors we know or are getting comfortable with right now and there are certainly a number of elements that we’re monitoring closely. Let me take you through how we see it today. First for some knowns that should serve as tailwinds. We see our defense businesses on solid ground. We have record backlog and visibility to grow our defense businesses over the next few years. Our franchises are well aligned with the national defense strategy, which should shape future budgets, and we see demand for our advanced solutions internationally. We have a robust synergy playbook that we’ll utilize to create additional lift from Rockwell Collins acquisition synergies as well as generating the Raytheon Technologies synergies, and as you heard from Greg, we are taking aggressive cost reduction and cash conservation actions in response to the current environment. Now as I mentioned, we are optimistic about our defense business growth and our expectations are largely consistent with when we began the year. We are monitoring our defense supply chain and any potential disruptions that can occur, however, we have good visibility into the demand side of our defense business and, as a result, have provided a detailed outlook for our RIS and RMD segments in the appendix. At a high level for RIS and RMD, we had guided to 6% to 8% sales growth versus 2019 and discussed the ability to improve operating income. As a result of the COVID-19 impacts, we are lowering RIS and RMD sales by $200 million, or a little less than 1%. Operationally and on a full year 2020 basis, and for the remaining period of Q2 to Q4 2020, we see no changes to the previous defense outlook provided for legacy Raytheon businesses other than the COVID-19 impacts. Note there are a few changes to the way we’ll report our numbers for RIS and RMD driven entirely by the merger and related accounting, including the stub period, EAC resets, and purchase accounting impacts. You’ll note that the appendix slide highlights the expected effect these items will have on these segments. It is important to note the EAC reset is merely a matter of timing and not a permanent loss of profit as the profit improvements will now be recognized over the remaining life of each program. We are confident in our defense growth in the future and although we are not providing an outlook for 2021, what I can say is that we are in a strong position to continue to grow these businesses and will not see the merger related impacts on the accounting beyond next year. Finally, as you know, defense made up a little less than 30% of sales within Collins and Pratt in 2019. We continue to expect Collins and Pratt defense sales to grow mid single digits organically in 2020 as we discussed at the beginning of the year. Now for what we’re monitoring. As we’ve discussed, the COVID-19 pandemic clearly has and will continue to impact our business and the aerospace sector as a whole. The year can unfold in multiple ways but will certainly result in significant headwinds for our commercial aerospace segments. We are monitoring several factors that will have a direct impact on the commercial aerospace market, including OEM production levels, airline financial conditions, fleet groundings, revenue passenger miles, and aftermarket data. A few comments on these factors. We know that OEM production rates have been significantly reduced. Aircraft fleets around the globe are parked and IATA’s latest forecast estimates 2020 RPMs will be down 48% year-over-year, all of which will have a significant impact on the commercial markets in our segments and the commercial aerospace industry as a whole, including our commercial supply chain. While we have and will continue to see disruptions in the supply chain, we are working very closely with our suppliers to ensure they remain financially stable and are able to meet our production requirements. Let’s discuss Collins. While I can’t provide an overall view on commercial OE or aftermarket sales and operating profit at this time due to the evolving market conditions, here’s what I can tell you. We would expect a sharp deceleration in both OE and aftermarket. On the sales side, we expect OE sales to decline in line with OEM production and airline delivery schedules. Aftermarket is equally as difficult to quantify, but we generally expect sales declines to be in line with RPM declines, with a prolonged rebound that does not recover to 2019 levels within 2020. We also continue to expect a point of headwind from lower ADSB sales. Moving on to Pratt, as with Collins, we expect a sharp deceleration in both OE and aftermarket. For Pratt OE, we expect our sales to decline in line with our main OEM customers, which is primarily Airbus for our large commercial engines. On the aftermarket side, GTF overhaul activity will continue as we upgrade engines to the latest configuration; however, legacy shop visits are now likely to be down 50% or more over the prior year. As you’re aware, Pratt & Whitney Canada was approximately 25% of Pratt’s total sales in 2019. Pratt Canada will see a significant sales impact, albeit not as large as the expected decline in the large commercial engine business. With respect to free cash flow, we expect to generate positive free cash flow for the year which will be driven by our defense businesses. Given the range of outcomes that could materialize within our commercial aero businesses, we would expect these businesses to be about breakeven for the year, and that’s despite taking $4 billion of cash actions this year as we see headwinds at the commercial aero businesses largely due to working capital impacts as we work to ensure the health of our supply base and address under-absorption. The strong operating results in Q1 highlight the performance capability of Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace and is indicative of the potential and growth the segments will see again as we rebound from the temporary market impacts resulting from COVID-19. But for now, there are clearly a number of moving pieces with more unknowns than knowns. We will continue to provide updates as the situation develops and we have a clearer understanding of the pandemic’s effect on our operations. As for some Q2 color, as we have already said, we expect sales to be down significantly at Pratt and Collins. We see Q2 operating profit at Pratt to be a loss and operating profit at Collins to be approximately breakeven. For RIS and RMD operationally, it’s business as usual but for the previously mentioned EAC reset and stub period that will impact the results. Finally, we expect adjusted EPS in Q2 to be positive. As it relates to the full year outlook, we will reevaluate our ability to provide our traditional sales, EPS and cash outlook after Q2. Turning to Slide 11, we have provided you with some information to help with your modeling. You will see our current thoughts on Q2 through Q4 ranges for these line items. Of note, capex for Collins and Pratt will now be over $800 million lower than we expected at the start of the year to help mitigate COVID-19 pressures. Additionally as far as corporate expenses, for Q2 to Q4 approximately $400 million will be allocated to Pratt and Collins, leaving about $250 million to $300 million of residual corporate costs which primarily relate to LTAMs, a corporate project for the company. Lastly, we are making a few changes to the way we measure our results and therefore speak to them externally. We will continue to discuss our sales and earnings on an adjusted basis, consistent with UTC’s legacy approach of excluding significant and non-recurring items with a few changes. Given the considerable acquisition and merger activity, we will be reporting our segment profit, adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS excluding the non-cash net expense associated with amortization, PP&E step-up, and parity adjustments. We believe this will provide investors with a better understanding of our results in relation to cash performance. With respect to our segment operating profit, we will now be allocating the majority of corporate costs to our segments, and finally we’ll reflect the FAS/CAS pension adjustment at RIS and RMD restructuring below segment operating profit in our statement of operations. With that, I’ll hand it back over to Greg.
Greg Hayes:
Thanks Toby. I know that’s a lot to digest, a lot going on. Let me just maybe summarize it in my own--when I think everybody needs to step back and take a deep breath. I know a lot of change, a lot of uncertainty. At the end of the day, the reason Raytheon and UTC came together were three simple reasons
Operator:
[Operator instructions] The first question will come from the line of Ron Epstein.
Ron Epstein:
Good morning guys, and thanks for the complete call and all the info. Just maybe starting off with defense, because I’m certain you’re going to get bombarded with commercial questions, when you think about international defense markets, in particular Saudi and what’s going on with oil prices and how important Saudi is to the legacy defense businesses at Raytheon, how should we think about that? Is there any risk to those contracts and is there any risk to the Middle East, particularly Saudi business?
Greg Hayes:
There’s always uncertainty when oil is $20 or $30 a barrel. Obviously the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is challenged, as are most of the Middle East customers during this time. At the same time, I don’t think peace is breaking out anytime soon in the Middle East, and providing a solid defense posture to our customers over there remains a priority, both for the U.S. government as well as for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and all of our other customers over there. Look - it’s about 30% of legacy Raytheon business was international, and it’s not all Middle East, there’s obviously a big piece in the U.K. We support--we’ve got the Patriot system in Poland, we’ve got big operations in Australia. It’s not just a Middle Eastern business. It’s an important element of it but it’s not the whole thing. So far, we have continued to see good cash come in from the Middle Eastern customers during the first quarter, surprisingly even with oil out there. They need the equipment, they want the equipment, and we need to help them defend themselves. Toby, anything you want to add?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, I think the only thing I’d add, Ron, is we’re looking at a big award here in Q2, late Q2, maybe early Q3. The production for TPY-2 system for KSA, that’s on track and it falls in line with that Greg said - the threat environment hasn’t changed, the need for our equipment is still there. Then if you remember back, it was--I’m going to be off, three or four years ago when oil was down, same logical type of questions, and we came out of that strong with no implications, and that’s how we see this playing out as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Hi, good morning. Thank you everyone for the time. Greg, you were right - that’s a lot to digest. I realize you aren’t guiding, but you gave us a few pieces to pull together. I think you said UTX aero free cash flow was breakeven, and if we assume Raytheon free cash flow is $3.5 billion as a baseline, because that’s what it was last year, and UTX generates free cash flow of about a billion standalone, does that provide a framework for about $4.5 billion combined as the bottoming of free cash flow in 2020, or are there other items like tax, pension, working capital to think about?
Toby O’Brien:
Sheila, I think that’s probably a little aggressive from the different modeling and the scenarios that we’re coming up with here right now. I think what you’ve got to take into account is with these type of volume drops that we’re seeing and how they’re hitting us all at once, there are significant absorption impacts that we’re dealing with and trying to at least start to mitigate with the costs and cash actions that Greg mentioned in his opening comments. The drop-though margin on this type of volume loss, especially when you look at the entire mix of the business between heavy aftermarket at Pratt, about 50% of their business, about 35% of Collins is aftermarket, when you piece that all together including the other parts, we’re talking about north of 50% type of drop-through combined with managing inventory levels with suppliers and ensuring the health of the supply chain, working with customer requests on extended terms. We see a little bit more headwind than I think you’re thinking there.
Greg Hayes:
Sheila, I think the thing to keep in mind is it’s really working capital. We’ve got a lot of inventory. Typically, as you know, on the commercial aero side, lead times are somewhere between 12 and 18 months, so even as Boeing and Airbus reduce production schedules, we were not going to be able to take out all the working capital associated with that. We’ve also assumed, I would tell you, some slower payments from some of our customers, which would put pressure on cash. With all that, I think your $4.5 billion is optimistic, I would say. It will be a decent year, we’ll be able to fund the dividend, but I wouldn’t get too much above that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Carter Copeland.
Carter Copeland:
Hey, good morning newly merged team. I hope everybody is getting along nicely.
Greg Hayes:
No blood yet, Carter.
Carter Copeland:
Well you know, you’ve got plenty of work to work on. Greg, I wonder if you could just give us a little bit more specificity and help map to the $2 billion in cost out. From what we’ve heard from a lot of other folks, it seems like your production plan now is probably 30%, 40% down on OE, 50%, 60% down on aftermarket, military still holding in, you know, volumes that are down, I don’t know, call it 40% on the year, something like that. Is that about how you’re thinking about production, and how do you think about the cost structure and how that $2 billion maps to that in terms of what’s a run rate saving versus a one-time or somewhat temporary cost-out? Any color there would be helpful, thanks.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, Carter, look - there’s obviously, as you said, a lot of moving pieces here. I would think about it more broadly, like this. Think about commercial OE - probably down about 50% for the rest of the year. That’s in line with the 48% reduction in traffic that IATA forecasts. It will vary by platform as you look at 737 versus A320, so we’re trying to match OEM production with what the customers, Boeing and Airbus and Bombardier and others are telling us today. But roughly speaking, you can think about OE down about 50% for the rest of the year and aftermarket down probably in that same range. Those are big numbers. Now, what are we going to do about it? Chris and Steve on the commercial side have identified a number of actions. The biggest, of course, is probably a reduction in E&D about $450 million. That seems like a lot of money. We spend about $2.5 billion a year on the commercial aero side on E&D, so it’s roughly a 20% reduction in E&D. About $300 million of that is going to come out of Pratt and $150 million of that comes out of Collins, so just to give you an idea. Of course, also we have stopped hiring. We’ve put a hiring freeze in place. We’ve deferred merits, we’re furloughing folks both at the corporate office and across the commercial businesses. Also, we’ve furloughed people in the factories, and I expect that there will be further reductions as we sort through all of these volumes. The key is we don’t want to cut the talent so deep that when the recovery happens, we don’t have the right people, so we’re trying to be judicious. We’re trying to keep as many jobs as we can, and to that end, the legacy Raytheon businesses have 2,000 openings today for folks and we are actively working to try and take engineering talent and other talent that we’ve got in the legacy UTX business and move those folks over to programs on the Raytheon side. There’s a lot of pain to come yet, a lot of very tough decisions ahead of us in terms of production volumes, but just generally speaking, think about 50 and 50 and you’re going to be in the ballpark.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Stallard.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks very much, good morning. Quick question on the Boeing 373 Max. Are you guys actually shipping any product at the moment, and as you look forward from here, are you aligning your cost base and capacity in line with what Boeing is saying about production rates heading back over 30 next year? Thank you.
Greg Hayes:
We continue to support volume and the return to service for the 737 Max. The folks out in Cedar Rapids have been doing software turns and continuing to work with Boeing to make sure that we’ve got a certification standard that the FAA will approve here. Right now, I don’t believe we’re shipping anything today to Boeing. We are aligning with their plans to ramp up production later this year and into next year. Again, the lead time on that, roughly 12 to 18 months, so we’ve been on pause here for a couple of months while Boeing has paused production. We’ll ramp up as they ramp back up. I think they’ve probably got plenty of inventory today that they’re going to need to work through, so we’re trying to match our ERP demand with what Boeing is out there forecasting. But right now, I think we’re pretty well in lockstep across all the platforms, whether it’s 787 or 737s.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Myles Walton.
Myles Walton:
Thanks, good morning. Greg, I guess timing is everything. First, a clarification on a question. Toby, the clarification on reported margins of the Raytheon businesses as it relates to EAC, I think you said something to the effect of the effect would be gone after ’21. Can you elaborate on what we should think about the margins looking from ’21, I guess into ’22 on the accounting side? Then the real question, maybe for Greg, is on Pratt and the aftermarket, you could have whole types of fleets retired, accelerated over the next year or so. How much of Pratt’s aftermarket is not V2500 at this point?
Toby O’Brien:
I’ll hit the first one, Myles, on the EACs. The EAC resets are zero percent complete. That’s not purchase accounting but it’s really reflective of the acquisition accounting around the merger and the go-forward, right, so effectively the merger reflects the to-go part of the program that Raytheon has. We still expect, just to be very clear, the same types of productivity that historically on an annualized basis have been close to 200 basis points - you know, 180, 200 basis points to margin. They’re just going to be spread out over the next, call it 18 to 24 months, given that everything is reset to zero percent complete. Post ’21, we’d expect margins more in line with what the historical Raytheon business has been delivering with the same focus on working to improve those and to grow the segment margin contribution from RIS and RMD.
Greg Hayes:
Let me try and address the question on Pratt, and again I’ll give you some broad outline. If you think about it, there’s really four engine families that contribute to the aftermarket. The JP8D for the old MD80s and such, which Delta is retiring, don’t really have a significant impact at all anymore - that’s all gone years ago. The biggest obvious fleet is the V2500, as you know, and there’s about 7,000 engines that we’ve sold. About 6,000 of those are still in active service. You’ve of course got the GTF, which isn’t really contributing much in terms of aftermarket today in terms of profit, but there’s sales associated with it. And then of course, you’ve got the legacy Pratt 2000, which is on the 757, and you’ve got the legacy PW4000, which powered some of the first 777s, some A-330s, etc. The V accounts for about 50% of the aftermarket today. The 2000/4000 roughly together was about 1,000 aircraft out there, you’re talking maybe 20% or so of the aftermarket for Pratt. Some of that will go away, some of it naturally. I think as we think about it, those things have been on the decline for the last 10 years. They will continue to decline. We’ll see what comes back into service. With fuel prices as low as they are, the need for new aircraft is probably somewhat lessened and people will probably fly some of the older, less efficient aircraft for a few more years to save on the capital of buying new airplanes, which means you’ll probably see these things come back into service, although not in the numbers that we saw. That’s all contemplated in this reduction that we’ve been talking about for the aftermarket at Pratt.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Strauss.
David Strauss:
Thanks, good morning. Wanted to ask about what you saw out of the aftermarket in April, maybe splaying it out between Collins and Pratt; and then Greg, can you comment on what all this does - you know, the lower production rates on E320, what that does to the GTF loss profile, balancing you’ll be delivering fewer engines but you also, I assume, be coming down the learning curve more slowly? Thanks.
Greg Hayes:
On the GTF, obviously as everybody knows, we lose money every time we ship an engine, and so there’s actually good news from the lower production on the GTF. That is offset somewhat by the lack of absorption, so all of the negative engine margin that we would typically see is not all going to flow to the bottom line. You’ve got lack of absorption and, importantly, you’re coming down the learning curve. You’ve taking 5% to 10% of the cost out every year - that’s going to be slower as volumes go down, you don’t have the leverage in the supply chain. Overall, you’re probably going to get about $100 million of pick-up as a result of the lower volumes in GTF, but I think that’s a--it’s a relatively modest number because of the absorption impact. I’m sorry, what was the first part of the question?
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Aftermarket in April.
Greg Hayes:
Oh, I’m sorry. Yes, let me just give you two data points that I think are indicative of where the aftermarket is going. Pratt typically gets about 1,000 engine inductions a year for the V2500. Most of those inductions, we’re right about online - we were seeing roughly 80 or so a month January-February, even into March. April, not so good. There was about 25 or so engines inducted into the overhaul shop, and so we’ll see that revenue impact here in the second quarter because typically as we repair these engines, they consume spare parts, we recognize the revenue. That’s going to be probably the biggest place where you’ll see the impact. On the Collins side, again a similar number. If you think about repair input, that is the things that come back to our shop around the world, and we’ve got a lot of shops, repair input for the month of April is down about 55%. Again, we think this is probably as bad as it gets, but it’s happened very, very quickly, and so hopefully we’ll see a slower recovery. I think the best thing--and David, you know because you track the flights every day, I got your little note there and it’s appreciated, but the China business actually is coming back - slowly, but it is coming back. Passengers are coming back and flying in China again, and I suspect two months down the road, we’ll see a slight recovery start--maybe it’s three months or four months, but there is some light at the end of this, it’s just going to take a little while. But we certainly have already seen the impacts in April of the airline slowdown.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Peter Arment.
Peter Arment:
Yes, thanks. Good morning Greg, Toby, Neil. Greg, maybe just to ask the question on the V2500 a different way, that 6,000 engines that you have out there, do you have an average age? Are we talking that this is still--
Greg Hayes:
About 11 years.
Peter Arment:
Eleven years? So still has a long life.
Greg Hayes:
Yes, so think about it, about half of the Vs that are out there have not had its first major overhaul, and the other half have only had one. If you think about it, and you know the life cycle of these engines - you can go through, sometimes three major overhauls, so we’re still in the third inning, I would say, of the life of the V2500 in terms of the aftermarket.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Seth Seifman.
Seth Seifman:
Thanks very much. Good morning. I was curious - I saw in the notes that there was kind of a small intangible impairment at Collins Aerospace. How do you think about the risk of further impairments there, and what are the pieces of the Collins business that you see as most at risk here? How much of the aftermarket is discretionary? How do you see things playing out at the Bs business, and are these the places where you see the greatest risk of kind of the more permanent kind of reduction?
Greg Hayes:
Well, as you can expect, Seth, we took a hard look at all of the intangible assets as we were closing out first quarter, and we obviously ran a bunch of different sensitivity analyses. There was a small impairment, I think it was $40 million at Collins related to some small businesses that they had, that were part of the original acquisition of Rockwell Collins. But we have looked at all of the other intangibles. Even with a worst case scenario on aftermarket for the next two years, we did not see any potential for impairment. There was plenty of runway there, additional cash flows, again assuming a two, even a three-year kind of recovery here, so I’m not expecting big impairments here. Now again as the world changes, we evaluate this every single quarter, but we did a pretty good scrub, and I guess Neil, I’d ask you--?
Neil Mitchell:
Yes, I would just add to that, when you think about the Rockwell Collins acquisition, which didn’t happen that long ago, those were those assets that were marked to fair value most recently, so they’re the ones that are most susceptible. But all of this is non-cash, and so we will go through a process, we’ll continue to monitor the near term, midterm, long term and update that accordingly, but I agree with everything that you just said there, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Noah Poponak.
Noah Poponak:
Hey, good morning everybody. Toby, since you sort of spoke to a floor in the 2020 free cash, and I know a lot of your investors are focused on the 2021 target that had been provided, and maybe there’s less, sort of abnormal, below the segment working capital type of disruption. I wanted to see if I could get you to speak to that. Outside of a bottoms-up model, I had top-down just crudely been thinking in the slides when you--from the deal, you had the three plus three from each business, pro forma six goes to eight, so if I just cut the UTC three in half, I take out one and a half, or if I look at the S4 on a levered basis, it was kind of a four and four split to get to that eight, not quite So if I just took that 4 and cut it in half, I was two, so if I just took one and a half to two out of the eight, can I think of six to six and a half as the free cash floor in 2021, or would you still have some of these working capital disruptions or something else?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, understand the question, Noah. Obviously we haven’t guided to 2020, so we need to figure that out first. Stating the obvious, the 2021 numbers you’re referring to certainly didn’t consider there would be this type of environment because of the pandemic. I think the two or three things to help you a little bit, obviously we’d expect defense to continue strong, so that should be a tailwind for us going into next year. The variable on the commercial aero side in any of the math that you’re referring to is really the shape of the recovery and what type of trajectory we come out of 2020 at Collins and Pratt, going into ’21. Too early to tell at this point, but as you mentioned, some of the figures, both businesses have a strong history of delivering strong cash flows. Just go back to 2019 results and you’ll see it there. We’ll get back there at some point. We’re not seeing any change to the underlying fundamentals of the Pratt or the Collins business, as evidenced by even the Q1 results. It’s just too early to speculate more on 2021.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Springarn.
Robert Springarn:
Good morning. Greg, I wanted to follow on the commercial aero questions asked so far, because it seems like you see aftermarket leading the recovery over OE. I want to ask you, first, if I’m interpreting that correctly; and second, how you differentiate the recoveries in your commercial aftermarket versus commercial OE businesses in terms of timeline, and then how that translates to Collins and Pratt’s recoveries?
Greg Hayes:
Well, I guess the way I would think about it is as long as the airlines continue to fly, you’re going to see aftermarket demand. I think, again as I mentioned earlier, with fuel prices where they are, we would expect to see aftermarket demand pick up a little bit more quickly than OE demand, just because today you’ve got 55% of the world fleet parked. The good news is if you think about it, it’s really about 40% of that is COVID-related. Back in January before all this started, you had roughly 15% of the 30,000 fleet parked, so that means you’ve got 40% parked as a result of COVID, and those planes will come back into service slowly, and I think what you’re going to see is those planes will come back before you’ll see a lot of new OEM demand come back. That’s why we’re thinking you’re probably going to see a much--not much, you will see a quicker return on the aftermarket than you will on the OE side over the next couple of years. As you know, it’s tough right now for both Boeing and Airbus to place planes because of the financing constraints that some of their customers are under. Obviously we’ll work with Boeing and Airbus on that, but I really think it’s that parked fleet returning to service first before you see a lot of new aircraft out there.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Ashley, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Your last question comes from Cai Von Rumohr.
Cai Von Rumohr:
Yes, thank you very much. If you look at 2009, the aftermarket for the industry was down in low to mid teens, essentially about a 6% to 7% or less traffic decline. If you expect traffic to be down 50%, why won’t the aftermarket be down more, because this time we also had ADSB going against us, we have airlines talking of more retirements, and we have a much weaker OE backdrop and therefore less provision. Why isn’t the aftermarket, if you’re down 50% in traffic, going to be down 70?
Greg Hayes:
Look Cai, I think how much it’s actually going to be down is the question of the day. I would tell you of the ADSB mandate, that was over at the end of December, so we actually already factored ADSB into our forward-looking guidance for aftermarket. I would tell you that’s really outside of the 50% drop that we’re talking about for aftermarket. It really just depends. If you take a snapshot of where we are today, obviously aftermarket is going to be down a lot more in April and May than the 50%, so we are expecting a gradual recovery through the course of the year. Keep in mind, many of the aftermarket contracts that we have on the Pratt side are hours based, so even if planes aren’t flying full, if they’re flying, they’re generating revenue, they’re generating aftermarket. That will help here as well to offset, so. I think about 70% probably of the Pratt fleet today is powered by the hour. I think if you look at where China is today, where they’ve started this kind of slow recovery back up to about 40% over time, up from 20, we expect to see kind of that same gradual recovery during the course of the year. I’ll tell you, we aren’t going to know what the aftermarket looks like until we probably get to December 31. We’ll continue to give you guys an update as we speak, looking at this really month by month to see what the recovery profile looks like. It’s not a sharp V. It is more like a U-shape, and I still--I think it’s going to be a full two years before we see a recovery close to what we saw in terms of 2019 levels of aftermarket. That could well be three years. At the end of the day, we’ll survive this, we’ll get through it, but it’s going to be painful because, as you know, that is relatively high margin business which affords us the opportunity to make these big investments in engines and other technologies across the portfolio.
Operator:
I will now hand the call back to Greg Hayes for closing remarks.
Greg Hayes:
Thank you Ashley, and thank you everyone for listening in. I recognize a lot of data here, a lot of change going on. Neil, Kelsey and the team will be around today to answer your questions. Thank you all for listening, and I would just ask everybody to be healthy and safe. Take care.
Operator:
That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Raytheon's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is De Tamara, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you to De Tamara. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the Company's future plans, objectives, and expected performance and the proposed merger with UTC, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the Company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risk that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings, and with respect to the proposed merger and related matters in the definitive merger proxy statement filed with us with the SEC on September 10, 2019. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon had a very successful year in 2019 and our global growth strategy is delivering record results for our shareholders and customers. We had many highlights and set many company records. So let me start by touching on some of our financial results. In 2019, we continue to see strong global demand for innovative solutions, illustrated by our book to bill ratio of 1.54 in the fourth quarter and 1.25 for the full year. And for the third time in 2019, we achieved record backlog, which rose to almost $49 billion at the end of the year. This drove an increase in backlog of more than $6 billion year-over-year or up 15% and it positions us well for the future. Sales are up 6.5% in the fourth quarter and 7.8% for the full year. And in 2019, we accelerated our sales growth for the fifth time since 2015. This year in the new company record for annual sales of $29 billion EPS exceeded our expectations for the quarter and for the year. Cash flow is better than we expected and we achieved a new company record for operating cash flow for the full year. Toby will review additional details about the fourth quarter and our 2020 outlook in a few minutes. Now, with all of our successes in 2019, I wanted to share what I see and some of Raytheon's key milestones during the year, successes from across the company that will drive future growth. First, let me highlight the strength at both our classified business and our international business. In 2019, we achieved record classified bookings for the full year of almost $8 billion and we saw strong classified bookings across the businesses, including $2.8 billion in both missiles and IIS and $2.1 billion at SAS. Raytheon also had record classified sales, which grew 15% versus 2018 and represented 20% of company sales. Our strength in classified is driven in large part by the need of our domestic customers to address advanced threats as outlined in the national defense strategy. As we've said before, classified business is crucial for Raytheon's growth and success. It funds next generation technology development that is integral to the long term growth of our future franchises and production awards. We also achieved company records in our international business, both international bookings and sales and record levels for the year. International sales are $8.6 billion for the year and year-over-year, international sales have now increased for 16 consecutive years. Turning to our franchises, we further strengthened many of them in 2019 to be long term value generators for years and decades to come. The newest example of this is our clean sheet offering for the U.S. Army's next generation Air and Missile Defense radar. In October, we were pleased to be selected to develop the lower tier Air and Missile Defense sensor, which extends Raytheon's position as the world's premier Air and Missile Defense radar capability provider for decades to come. We expect LTAMDS to have potential lifetime value of over $20 billion from sale to domestic and international customers. LTAMDS will operate on the Army's integrated air and missile defense network. Our Patriot franchise continued its momentum with the Kingdom of Bahrain signing an agreement in August to purchase Patriot. This letter of offer and acceptance allows the U.S. government to begin contract negotiations with our Patriot team. Bahrain is the 17th nation to procure Patriot. With the U.S. approval, all 17 of these Patriot partners will have the opportunity to add the LTAMDS capability to each of their fire units. This will enhance the performance and extend the life of their systems for many decades. In addition, the capabilities of the LTAMDS radar also opens up a market for standalone forward deployed applications. Our Patriot system fires multiple interceptors, including our guidance enhanced missiles or GEM-Ts. And during the fourth quarter, we booked over $700 million on a direct commercial contract to provide GEM-T missiles for an international customer. Demand for integrated air and missile defense solutions is also furthering growth in our NASAMS franchise, a mid range solution, jointly manufactured by Raytheon and Kongsberg. In 2019, we added two new countries to the NASAMS family. In May, we booked over $500 million to provide NASAMS for Australia. And in July, we received $1.8 billion award to provide Qatar with NASAMS. Qatar is the 11th country to procure NASAMS, which uses a Raytheon radar, and will be capable of firing multiple interceptors, including our AMRAAM-Extended Range and AIM-9X missiles. As a result, NASAMS help support the growth of additional franchises AMRAAM and AIM-9X. For AMRAAM Raytheon is continuing the development of AMRAAM ER and expanding its capabilities to support land based applications. This significantly extends both the range of AMRAAM and the market of the NASAMS system. Qatar will be the launch customer of AMRAAM ER. As part of the procurement of the NASAMS systems, we expect the foreign military sales contract award from Qatar for AMRAAM ER in 2021. Our airborne radar franchise was extended in July with our selection as a radar supplier for the B-52 radar modernization program, displacing the incumbent. Under the contract, Raytheon will design, develop, produce and sustain the use of radar systems for the entire U.S. Air Force B-52 fleet. With improved navigation reliability, mapping and detection range, the advanced radar upgrade will ensure the aircraft remains mission ready through 2050 and beyond. And we continue to see strength across our standard missile franchise, including the multiyear award for SM-6 and then the bundle award for SM-3 Block IIA, both of which were booked in December for a total award value of around $3 billion. We still expect a multiyear contract award for another SM-3 variant. SM-3 Block IB, worth about $2 billion in the first half of 2020. The endo-atmospheric SM-6 delivers a proven over the horizon offensive and defensive capability, and it supports anti air warfare, anti surface warfare and sea based terminal ballistic missile defense in one solution. In the next generation SM-3 Block IIA, interceptor defeats missile threats outside the Earth's atmosphere and is produced in cooperation with Japan. With the recent and expected awards for our Standard Missile product lines, we have production visibility until at least 2026. Both the SM-3 Block IA and IB are integral to MDA's position in missile defense. This month, after the quarter closed, IIS was selected by the U.S. Air Force to develop the future operationally resilient ground evolution program, also known as FORGE. This newly developed open framework will be capable of processing overhead persistent infrared satellite data from both the U.S. Air Force's evolving SBIRS constellation and the future Next Gen OPIR constellation for missile warning. Also in January, we were awarded the fourth element terminal by the U.S. Air Force, which extends our protected communications franchise at SAS. Finally, one of our most notable highlights of 2019 was announcing our transformational merger of equals with United Technologies. These two industry leading companies will create one of the best positioned aerospace and defense companies. Raytheon Technologies will have a diversified platform agnostic suite of offerings that are balanced across end markets, which is a key differentiator through business cycles. The combined company will also have a vast global footprint. By combining our complimentary technologies, we can go after and win and increase number of new franchises. We expect the revenue synergy opportunities from our combined technologies to continue to be value generators for decades to come, positioning the company to increase market share and outgrow the aerospace and defense markets. Integration planning for the merger is progressing well and the merger is targeted to close early in the second quarter of 2020. As we start the New Year, we feel optimistic about the future and our ability to continue to grow, both domestically and internationally. We are pleased with the fiscal year '20 appropriations bill enacted in December with our Raytheon programs fairing well, and the DoD monetization account up versus fiscal year '19. Fiscal year '21 budget control act caps were increased last year, so we have top line certainty and include a modest increase in a DoD base budget. Perhaps best of all, fiscal year '21 is the last year on the BCA. Bottom line, we have a strong foundation for the future. And this is recognized last week in Fortune magazine's annual survey. Raytheon was ranked the number one company in the aerospace and defense industry in the 2020 study of the World's Most Admired Companies. And it's included number one rankings in key attribute categories, such as innovation, financial soundness, global competitiveness and social responsibility. Let me close by thanking all the members of the Raytheon team worldwide. When I think about our many successes in 2019, I do so with deep appreciation for my dedicated colleagues who made it possible. They are the ones helping the company grow and meet its commitments, the ones creating value for shareholders and the one providing the trusted, innovative solutions our customers depend upon. Given the expected timing of the merger's close, this could well be the last earnings call for me and for Raytheon Company. For nearly 100 years, this company has provided mission critical technologies to our customers, supported a diverse and engaged workforce and has been a good corporate citizen. That legacy built on a foundation of trust, respect, collaboration, innovation and accountability, will continue. And we are excited to redefine the future of the aerospace and defense industry as Raytheon Technologies. With that, let me turn the call over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the fourth quarter and full year results. Then I'll discuss our outlook for 2020. After that, we'll open up the call for questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the Web slides that we issued earlier this morning, which are posted on our Web site. On Pages 2 and 3, we have our fourth quarter and full year highlights and summary results for the year. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in both the fourth quarter and the full year with bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow that all met or exceeded our expectations. We had record bookings in the fourth quarter at $12.1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.54. And for the year, we also had record bookings of $36.3 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.25. This sets the stage for continued strong growth in 2020, which I'll discuss in more detail in just a few minutes. And we achieved record backlog of $48.8 billion, up 15% year-over-year. Sales were $7.8 billion in the quarter, up 6.5% from the same period last year, and we saw growth across all of our businesses. For the year, sales were up 7.8%, reaching a new company record of $29.2 billion. Our EPS from continuing operations was $3.16 for the quarter and $11.92 for the full year. I will give a little more color on EPS in a few minutes. We also generated strong operating cash flow of $2.8 billion for the quarter and $4.5 billion for the year. It's worth noting that we exceeded our operating cash flow guidance by approximately $400 million at the midpoint and achieved new company record for operating cash flow. This increase was driven by operations and improved working capital. The company ended the year with a strong balance sheet and net debt of approximately $500 million. Now turning to Page 4. Let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full year results. As I mentioned earlier, we had strong bookings of $12.1 billion in the quarter and $36.3 billion for the full year, resulting in a record backlog of $48.8 billion. This is an increase to backlog of over $6 billion or 15% over year-end 2018, and provides us with a strong foundation for the future. International orders represented 28% of our total company bookings for both the quarter and the full year. At the end of 2019, approximately 38% of our total backlog was international. Turning now to Page 5. We had fourth quarter sales of $7.8 billion, an increase of 6.5% compared with the fourth quarter of 2018 and in line with our expectations. International sales continue to be strong, representing 31% of our total sales for the fourth quarter and 29% for the full year of 2019. So looking at the businesses. IDS had net sales of $2 billion in the quarter, up 18% from the same period in 2018, primarily due to higher net sales on an international air and missile defense system program awarded in the third quarter 2019 and an international missile defense radar program. IIS had net sales of $1.7 billion in Q4, up 2% compared with Q4, 2018. Net sales at missile systems in the fourth quarter were $2.3 billion, up compared with the same period in 2018. And for the full year, missile sales of $8.7 billion were up 5% over 2018. It's worth noting that missiles had strong bookings performance for the full year 2019 with bookings up 23% over the prior year. In the fourth quarter 2019, SAS had net sales of $2 billion. The 7% increase from the fourth quarter 2018 was primarily driven by higher sales on classified programs, the Next Gen OPIR program and tactical communication systems programs. For the full year, total company sales were $29.2 billion, up 7.8% over full year 2018. Moving ahead to Page 6, we delivered strong operational performance in the quarter. Our operating margin was 16.3% for the total company. On a business segment basis, our operating margin was 12.7%, up 70 basis points and higher than Q4, 2018, primarily due to higher net program efficiencies. Total business segment operating income of $993 million grew $109 million or 12% in the quarter. So now looking at the business margins. IDS fourth quarter 2019 operating margin was strong at 15.5%, up 80 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. IIS operating margin of 8.6% was up 20 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 and better than expectations. Missiles operating margin was 12.7% in the quarter, up 90 basis points compared to Q4 2018. The fourth quarter of 2019 benefited from a favorable change in program mix and higher net program efficiencies. SAS fourth quarter 2019 operating margin was 13.8% and in line with the fourth quarter of 2018. And SAS had a $21 million gain from the sale of real estate, which was assumed in our fourth quarter 2019 guidance. Turning to Page 7, we have solid operating margin performance for the year. Our operating margin was 16.4% for the total company and 12.1% on a business segment basis, an increase of 10 basis points compared with 2018.Total business segment operating income was $3.5 billion in 2019 and was up $290 million for the year or 9% over full year 2018. On Page 8, you'll see both the fourth quarter and full year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2019, our EPS was $3.16 and for the full year was $11.92. Both the quarter and full year were higher than the comparable periods in 2018, primarily driven by operational improvements from higher sales volume and favorable pension related items. Overall, we have strong operating performance for both the quarter and full year. Now, let me update you on our 2020 outlook on Page 9. As we sit here today, we currently see the book-to-bill ratio above one, and would expect to achieve another record backlog year. We also see strong sales growth for 2020 for the underlying Raytheon business of 6% to 8% over our 2019 results. Additionally, we expect growth across all of our businesses. We would expect IDS and SAS, our highest margin businesses, to have higher growth rate than the others, both with expected sales growth of 6% to 8% versus 2019. And at IIS, we'd expect sales growth of 4% to 6%. At missiles, we would expect sales growth of 5% to 7%. Although not on the page, I want to spend a minute talking about our expectations for the first quarter of 2020. We remain confident in our growth rate of 6% to 8% for the full year 2020. We expect the first quarter sales growth to be in the low-single-digits due to a tough comp with last year's first quarter. We see the sales growth profile of 2020 second half weighted with sales ramping up throughout the year, which is driven by the strong bookings in the second half of 2019. Before concluding, I want to touch on the pending merger with United Technologies. The collaborative merger efforts and integration planning between Raytheon and United Technologies are continuing to progress well. We look forward to the next steps in the process, including continuing to work closely with regulatory authorities in the U.S. and other jurisdictions to secure the required clearances and approvals for the merger. We are targeting the merger to close early in the second quarter of 2020. And post closing, we look forward to Raytheon Technologies delivering strong free cash flow growth and deploying a significant amount of its free cash flow to its shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. Let me conclude by saying that 2019 was a very successful year for Raytheon where we once again delivered strong financial results. We set many new company records in 2019, including record operating cash flow, backlog, bookings and sales and records for both sales and bookings in the classified and international areas. We have a strong balance sheet, which gives us a strong foundation as we move forward with the merger. And our business segments are well positioned to grow in 2020 and beyond. So with that, we'll open the call up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question will come from the line of Carter Copeland.
Carter Copeland:
So just a quick clarification and a question, just on the IDS growth, Toby, seems like for 3Q '19 award, the impact on the topline is pretty fast. Was that work that was done that got on contract? I just wanted you to help us with that. And then Tom, I wondered if you could give us some color on where the customer is kind of thinking or heading on [three dealer] [ph] and the change there? Thanks.
A - Toby O'Brien:
So on IDS, you know Carter, we're real pleased with their performance for the quarter and the year. The 12% growth they delivered in '19 was real strong. But yes, you got it right. There was some inventory liquidation that took place in order to ensure we had the right schedule cadence on the program going forward.
Tom Kennedy:
On the [three dealer] [ph], you may remember we initially won that back in 2014. And it was a bunch of protests and everything else like that, so it's kind of a program that kind of got off to kind of an interesting start with the protest. In any case, the technology baseline was back in about 2008 when essentially the whole solicitation efforts started with the Air Force. And as you can imagine, by the time we got started after the protest, there were many advancements in technology since then, but we had a baseline that was kind of rigid. And as also under the older, call it the acquisition strategies or techniques that the department had. And so couple of things they want to do, one is they wanted to refresh on the technology and then the other one is to get more into an OTA structure where they thought they could get the program through faster. And so they're going to go off and conduct an industry day here, surely lot more details. Part of that is they're going to try to do a sense off that was very similar what the United States Army did with the LTAMDS radar. And if you guys remember that last year, they conducted a sense off and in the end game, we went one up winning that program with the solution that we brought to the sense off.
Toby O'Brien:
The only thing I would add, given the state of where the program was at from a development point of view, it doesn't have a material impact on our financial results for 2020 and even the next year or two beyond that.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Sheila Kahyaoglu. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Tom, while we have you. How do we think about IDS and profitability mix, given FMS sales pick up and just the cadence of those? And related to that, how do we think about Patriot international opportunities with the LTAMDS win in the U.S.
Tom Kennedy:
I think IDS has a really bright future. And the number one is there they have the largest content of international. But they've also developed some key franchises here recently, the Air Missile Defense Radar or the Spy 6 for the DEG-51s, they also developed the enterprise air surveillance radar for the Navy. And as you know, the Navy is pushing for 350 ships, a lot of them are going to be frigates and the EASR has been already designated as the radar for those frigates. So I think that's a good for there for moving forward. They also won the lower tier air missile defense sensor, which is the LTAMDS for Patriot. And as we mentioned during the scripts, that's got about a $20 billion future here, both of between domestic and international customers. Just last year, Bahrain became our 17th country that has the Patriot system. So we have 17 countries that we work with on the Patriot system. Obviously, they're buying spares, aftermarket efforts in those areas. But they also continue to buy new solutions for the Patriot System. And now we have a brand new solution to bring in and it significantly enhances the capability of the Patriot system, called the LTAMDS radar. And there's about an opportunity for over 240 of those radars here over the next decade or so. So they're very strong all across the board in terms of new franchises coming on board, refreshing the Patriot franchise. On the international marketplace, they've done quite well by balancing both the FMS, which has higher margins than the domestic but also bringing on quite a bit of what we call DCS, Direct Commercial Sales business, which has higher margins than the FMS. So all-in-all, I think IDS is on a very strong foundation but they built, I call a launch pad for increased success through the decade.
Toby O'Brien:
And maybe I can just add a little bit and I'll start at the highest level of a company. So we're not giving guidance for 2020 consistent what we said back in October. But that said, I would tell you specifically around margins, nothing's changed. We still see the opportunity to improve margins incrementally going forward, improve our operating income overall, number one. As far as IDS in there, FMS, DCS mix. In the near-term, yes, that's a headwind. It's a good problem to have given the volume of the FMS work coming in. And we still have solid DCS work. I would tell you and remind you I think you all know IDS has been historically our highest margin business. We expect that to continue in the future. And we talked about the improved margin in Q4 for the company, a lot of it through net program efficiencies, IDS was a big contributor to that and we'd expect strong performance from IDS going forward. Let me just expand too a little bit on LTAMDS, because back when we were awarded in October we mentioned that the contract vehicle here is an OTA. Given that I think as folks know that does require periods of investment and we're going to experience that here for Raytheon. We have been spending on this for a while. As Tom alluded to leading up to the sense off and the hardware we delivered there. We're delivering six represent -- production representative units under the contract, it's about three year effort. The majority of the costs are going to be incurred in 2020. And you might have seen in our release, we took $13 million expense at the corporate level related to LTAMDS. We're managing this as a corporate project given the strategic significance tie back to the $20 billion opportunity, the standalone opportunities. And consistent with that, we'll be recording an expense throughout the year at the corporate level, probably in the $200 million range plus or minus and then it would tail off into 2021 as well. There's no impact on the IDS margins or the IDS segment margins as a result of that.
Operator:
Your next response is from Cai Von Rumohr. Please go ahead.
Cai Von Rumohr:
So you'd mentioned that your fastest growth is IDS and SAS, which are your higher margin -- highest margin business excluding the $200 million investment in LTAMDS. I mean, should we assume that your margins if you were a standalone company would be up?
Toby O'Brien:
So I think Cai, again, both for 2020 and beyond, I think we've been consistent. We are on a path to incrementally on an annual basis improve margins. Our segment margins were up 10 basis points in 2019 compared to 2018. That said we do have to think about mix impacts. And as Sheila asked and I just mentioned, we do see some mix with more FMS, less DCS and IDS, but we are focused on operational excellence and driving more efficiencies through the business. Missiles as an example, we expect their margins to be improved after some of the challenges they had in 2019. We expect their margins to improve in 2020. But they're still dealing with more development work, more classified work. Again, big picture kind of punch line is yes, there a standalone business. We would expect the company segment margins to incrementally improve in 2020 and beyond.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Myles Walton. Please go ahead.
Myles Walton:
Just on the remaining 19% for fourth quarter. Just curious if that now allows you to or pushes you to pursue process there. And also how indicative is the price you pay Vista to what you think you'll get in the open market? And maybe Toby, can you just give us where the pension ended? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So let me start with the fourth point part of your question. So look back to when we acquired Websense almost five years ago, we had disclosed the liquidity rights that both sides had. I think we and Vista hadn't been aligned all along. So ultimately the end game here was to monetize the investment in Forcepoint. They chose to do it through the foot process. We followed a very stipulated process per our agreement with Vista. We had outside advisors involved. And amongst other things, it took into account market conditions, comparable trading companies, et cetera. So at the time, yes, we think -- if we think it is indicative of that, obviously, at the end of the day, we still want to monetize the asset. We're going to do that in a smart way, evaluate all of our options. The whole software security market continues to trade pretty favorably here. And as we move along, we'll be looking to do what makes the most sense for the company and shareholders around that. Switching over to the pension, we had a return of about 19% for last year compared to our 7.5% long term assumptions. The discount rate that we're using for 2020 now is down about 100 basis points from what it was last year, it's at 3.3%. And we also did, through our normal process, update our long term return on asset assumptions and we reduced that from 7.5% to 7%. That all said, I'll just remind everyone that once the merger closes, because of purchase accounting, there will be some significant changes in this area. SAS operating and non-operating expense will improve as a result of that. And I think also to keep in mind there will not be an impact on our CAS recovery if you want to think about from a cash flow perspective that the CAS recovery stays intact.
Operator:
Your next response is from David Strauss. Please go ahead.
David Strauss:
I want to ask about the cash flow. Obviously, very strong performance this year, I think it came in $700 million or so above what you were thinking or what was in the S-4. Does any of that represent any sort of working capital pull forward that you had expected to come through in '20? Because I know what's in the S-4, looks like it reflects some pretty big working capital benefit. And then I think CapEx came in a little lighter than what you were thinking. Can you just address kind of the CapEx profile from here as well? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So on the cash flow, I'm real pleased with how the company performed and delivered and overachieved in this area. And it was from improvements in working capital, all program operational related. That said, again, we're not giving guidance for 2020. But I would expect excluding the effects of the merger, so taking the merger related costs and cash impacts out of it, I'd expect stronger cash flow in 2020 despite the over performance in 2019. So said another way, it's not a timing issue. It's not -- you're not moving from one year to another. And again, I think that's indicative of our focus on running the business, executing the business and obviously, having a strong balance sheet here for the first part of your question. Secondly, on CapEx, a couple things. We had talked about 2019 being a peak year for capital spending. We still feel that way even though it did come in a little below what the original expectation was. As far as 2020 goes, we'd expect it to be down a little bit further, albeit slightly of the reduction compared to what we were expecting in 2019. Some of that was permanent where we found ways to do things more efficiently and a little bit of it was timing that moved from 2019 to 2020. But again, we're on a downward trajectory consistent with what we have said this time last year.
Operator:
Your next response is from George Shapiro. Please go ahead.
George Shapiro:
Toby, can you tell us what's actually happened in missiles? I mean, the sales growth this quarter was clearly came below your revised guidance and for 2020, we're not expecting a lot of growth on the positive. The margin got a lot better. But what's happened on the sales side for kind of what was compared to what we're seeing?
Toby O'Brien:
So for Q4 overall at the company level, the 6.5% growth that contributed to 7.8% for the year, that was within the range we expected. You're right, missiles was a bit lower than we previously expected. We saw a little bit more strength than some of the other businesses. The way to think of missile sales in the fourth quarter was really some supplier delivery volume on a couple of production programs that we were expecting didn't materialize. And we had a few awards that had some inventory liquidations that again were a little less than expected. That said, the way to think of missiles going forward is they closed the year real strong, as I mentioned, relative to their bookings being up 23% year-over-year. Tom, in his opening comments, spoke about $3 billion worth of awards in the Standard Missile family that came in in the fourth quarter. We have the -- and one of those was -- one of the two multiyears that we had previously talked about, the second multiyear for the SM31B, we expect in the first half of this year. So we believe all that taken as a whole supports and provides for a foundation for missiles to grow and at a higher rate than we saw in Q4 again in the 5% to 7% rate for the year.
Operator:
Your next response is from Robert Stallard. Please go ahead.
Robert Stallard:
Thomas, this could be your last opportunity. And I was wondering if you give us your usual run through of what you're seeing at the moment in some of these key export markets. You've seen another good year of bookings. I was wondering how that could progress from here?
Tom Kennedy:
I'll start off -- let's start off in Europe. We have seen significant uptick over the last several years in Europe. A lot of it's been the pressure from our administration to push these countries to get to 2% -- the NATO countries do 2% of the GDP for defense. So we have seen an uptick there in Patriot, countries like Romania and Sweden buying the Patriot system was part of that. But we also have additional opportunities in that region for integrated air and missile defense and upgrading their systems, military systems across the board. Over in the Middle East, that continues to be an issue of significant demand for our solution set. As we recently saw in Iraq, anyone who has forces in that region needed to have integrated air missile defense capabilities and defender troops and their resources and their infrastructure. So we're seeing significant demands across the region for integrated air and missile defense solutions that range all the way from countering drones to, to ballistic missiles, to cruise missiles. So it's right in our sweet spot. And again, we're doing quite well in that region already but we see significant upside potential in the Middle East. And in the Asia Pacific region, North Korea has not quieted down, they're still doing testing. So there is considerable concern relative to, for example, South Korea and also Japan. Also in Korea, you don't see it out there in the press a lot but there is going to be a handoff of defense of South Korea from the South Korean government -- from the U.S. to the South Korean government. And that's going to provide an uptick requirement for us to be able to help provide the South Koreans the solutions they need to maintain their defense in that region as a primary defender. And then also relative to Japan significant uptick there, not just from the North Korea issue but also from the pressures from China. I think there's considerable push from China as we know expansionism relative to the first and second island chains. Japan wants to make sure they have a defense against that. So that is requiring some higher end solution sets that we are working with the Japanese government to provide. So in all the regions that we really participate in, in Europe and the Middle East and also in the Asia Pacific region, we're seeing significant demand singles for solution sets across the board. Obviously, we have created a bunch of new solution sets, like the SPY-6 radar, the EASR, now with the LTAMDS radar. So we had new solutions to bring to those markets and that we're working that very hard.
Toby O'Brien:
And Rob, I just from a quantitative point of view, just reinforce and we mentioned last year was a record year for international, including bookings. So we're seeing the results of that threat environment that Tom just walked through materialized in our results. We talked about 1.25 book-to-bill, both the domestic and international book-to-bill were plus or minus in that ballpark. So it was not one side of the house, if you will, driving the growth. We said 28% of the bookings were international 38% of the backlog, 29% of the sales and plus or minus we'd expect that same level of contribution from both in 2020 as well.
Operator:
Your next response is from Seth Seifman.
Seth Seifman:
Toby, if I just look at the guidance for the individual segments and proportion of the company, looks like the growth for 2020 would come in more at the 6-end than 8-end. Is that the right takeaway at this point? And where might there be potential upside?
Toby O'Brien:
No, I think the way I think of it, you got to think is that range is 6% to 8%. We're not specific beyond that. Don't forget that's total sales, don't have on the chart, we didn't talk about what would happen with eliminations. So those numbers exclude eliminations, which are close to in line, we expect them to be more in line with 2019. So I think that may be part of what is drove you to the question, you did there from the 6% versus either a midpoint or something else. That said, I mean we're confident in the range, the 6% to 8%, the strong backlog, the $49 billion in backlog, up 15% growth across all the businesses where we see that happening consistent with what we've laid out there, so no concerns on our end.
Operator:
Your next response is from Peter Arment.
Peter Arment:
Tom, we know you're not going anywhere. So -- but thanks for all your guidance over the years. But Toby, just back to kind of, I guess, follow up on Seth's question. If we look at the 6% to 8% and off of the base of 2019 and we compare it against 4$, really seems closer to 2021 numbers that you had out there, not the 2020, I guess. What would you highlight as the differences? I assume the LTAMDS might be one of them or so. Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So LTAMDS would not be one, Peter, just because of the nature of the OTA and kind of as I described before, the funded R&D concept. Right now, we're not recording revenue on that. We're really treating it as funded R&D and the related expense that I talked about earlier. Just as a reminder from the origin of that S-4 data, we talked about in the S-4 the process that led to the merger and the timeline around that. And that S-4 data, the origin of it predated that. So you got to go back to the 2018 timeframe for when we pulled that together. And I think the simplest way to think of it is last year, we ended 2018 with a backlog growth of 11% that was better than our expectations, because our bookings were higher and a similar thing happened here with the 15% increase, including multiple increases in the bookings outlook throughout 2019. So really tie it back to the strong bookings growth and the translation into the $49 billion in backlog that's driving and ask as you did the math, the absolute dollar profile compared to the data in the S4. This shows the underlying strength of the business and how well positioned the portfolio was.
Operator:
Your next response is from Hunter Keay. Please go ahead.
Hunter Keay:
Obviously, much you can say on this topic, but at high level. How is the classified arena evolving as you think about areas of priority? And can you just help us understand the pro forma RTS exposure that market once the deal is closed? I asked the question, because I didn't really hear you guys talk about hypersonics in your prepared remarks either. So if you want to somehow pull that in. Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
Hunter, let me just talk a little bit about the classified. I mean, obviously, you're right. It's classified if you can't talk about it. But in any case, it's really driven out of the national defense strategy, which really outline this next generation capability that the United States needs to be able to defend itself against these new evolving threats. And that really sets, I would say, the overarching requirement. And then from there, we go down to what actually has to occur. And there's all the areas of -- the NDS calls out the fact that we need to protect space. And so there's a whole set of efforts going on to ensure we protect space or space assets, the assets that we need to just do in our economy, but also for the defense of our nation. So that's a large area there. There's also a large area in the, I would call it missile defense capabilities and how do we defend our nation against the missile, intercontinental ballistic missile threat or other types of threats like hypersonic weapons. So there's a whole counter hypersonics and counter advanced intercontinental ballistic missile threat type work that's going on. And then there's the whole issue of the South China Sea and our ability to be able to maintain a presence there, keep those sea lanes open, and what type of technologies we need there and what advance capabilities we need. So that's the other major threat. But it all starts with the national defense strategy. And it's driven our business up. We have a solid set of, not just franchises but we also have a solid set of technical capabilities across the company that we're seeing in significant demand to satisfy these needs, I would call classified requirements needs, driven out of the national defense strategy. And that's driven our sales up 20% of our company's sales this year, has been classified. And I've said this on calls in the past but this classified work, we use this term as the sea corn of our -- for our future franchises. What I mean by that is this classified work allows us to take are our technical capabilities and resources and IP, and work hand in glove with our customers to evolve the next set for our sake, the franchises that will enable our customers to meet their mission needs, especially relative to the NDS. And so I think one way of looking at this for Raytheon is the greater, the amount of classified work we have, the stronger our future will be and our ability to generate new franchises that last for decades to come. And the classified bookings represented 22% of our total bookings in '19. It was up 17% over 2018, again, setting a new company record. And I think it just sets the company up for a great future to come.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
That's all the time we have today. Thank you for joining us this morning.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Raytheon Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ditamara and I will be your operator for today [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you, Ditamara. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our Web site at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then move onto questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the Company's future plans, objectives and expected performance and the proposed merger with UTC, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. And with respect to the proposed merger and related matters in the definitive merger proxy statement filed with the SEC on September 10, 2019. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon again delivered strong performance in the third quarter. We achieved record sales of $7.4 billion, up 9.4%. And our bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow, all exceeded our expectations. We continue to see strong global demand for innovative solutions. Book-to-bill in the third quarter was a healthy 1.27. And for the second time this year, we achieved record backlog, which rose to $44.6 billion at the end of the quarter, an increase of $3 billion year-over-year. Given our continued strong bookings and the opportunities we see in the fourth quarter, we are again increasing our bookings outlook for the year by another $1.5 billion. It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, we've increased our bookings outlook by a total of $3 billion over our original expectation, and we expect a full year book-to-bill ratio of greater than 1.1. We are pleased with our bookings performance this year, which positions us well for a strong growth in 2020. Additionally, we are also increasing our guidance for sales, operating income and EPS. Toby will discuss additional details about our third quarter performance along with our updated guidance and additional color on our 2020 outlook in a few minutes. And let me update you on our proposed merger of equals with United Technologies Aerospace Businesses. Two weeks ago at our special meeting, we reached an important milestone. Raytheon shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger with 96% of the voted shares in favor of the merger. I am pleased that both our shareholders and the shareholders of UTC voted in favor of our powerful strategic combination. Shareholder approval reflects a significant step on our path to unite to world-class companies with complementary technologies, and it supports our view that this merger of equals will create additional growth opportunities while delivering benefits to our shareholders, customers and employees. Integration planning for the merger is progressing well, and the merger remains on track to close in the first half of 2020. One of the strengths Raytheon will be bringing to the combined company is our diversified portfolio of advanced technologies that are well aligned with our customers' needs. So let me spend a few minutes discussing these innovative technologies and how we are able to turn them into compelling and advanced solutions and franchises for our customers. The newest example of this is our clean sheet offering for the next generation air and missile defense radar competition. Last week, we were pleased to be selected by the U.S. Army to develop the lower tier air and missile defense sensor, which extends Raytheon's position as a world's premier air and missile defense radar capability provider for decades to come. We expect LTAMDS to have a potential lifetime value around $20 billion from sales to domestic and international customers. LTAMDS will operate on the Army's integrated air and missile defense network. Our winning LTAMD solution is 360 degree active electronically scanned array radar powered by Raytheon manufactured gallium nitride, a substance that strengthens the radar single and enhances its sensitivity. Over the years, we have invested significantly in the AESA GaN technology and advanced manufacturing capability, positioning the company as the global leader in advanced AESA technology and product development. Our innovative solution also showcased advanced abilities and ease of maintenance and sustainment for the end-user, the soldier. Our Patriot franchise was also strengthened in August with the Kingdom of Bahrain, signing an agreement to purchase our Patriot system. This Letter of Offer and Acceptance allow the U.S. government to begin contract negotiations with our Patriot team. Bahrain will become the 17th nation to procure Patriot. With the U.S. Army's approval, all 17 of these Patriot partners will have the opportunity to add of our ESA 360 degree capability LTAMDS radar to each of their fire units. This will enhance the performance and extend the life of their systems for many decades. In addition, the capabilities of the LTAMDS radar also opens up the market for standalone forward-deployed applications. Our leadership in radars was also extended with the completion of the first system-level test of the Enterprise Air Surveillance Radar at Wallops Island test facility by the U.S. Navy and Raytheon in August. EASR is the newest sensor in the Navy's SPY-6 family of radars for aircraft carriers and frigates. It provides simultaneous insight air and anti-surface warfare, electronic protection and air traffic control capabilities. The radar has a highly scalable design and the innovative technology allows it to deliver increased performance, higher reliability and sustainability and lower total ownership cost. Upon completion of the system-level testing by the end of the year, EASR will shift to low rate initial production. As a reminder, AMDR, our Navy radar franchise for the new DDG 51 destroyers recently transitioned into low rate initial production. Another area where we are using our innovative technology to meet the needs of our global customers is in the area of counter UAS. Recently, our Coyote Block 2 counter drone unmanned aircraft system scored direct hits on multiple aerial targets in U.S. Army test flights. Coyote Block 2 is a new high-speed kinetic interceptor that will counter hostile drones. It is compatible with Raytheon's Ku-band Radio Frequency System or KuRFS radar. The Block 2 system is on track to be full rate production ready in 2020. In the area hypersonics, we are also advancing technology to develop new capabilities for our customers. In September, we announced that Raytheon will build and deliver to control, actuation and power conditioning subassemblies that can control flight of the U.S. Army's new Common-Hypersonic Glide Body missile. All of our businesses are at the forefront in developing new and updating existing technologies. And one in particular, SAS, has seen good advancements, both in terms of growth and in terms of innovative technology offerings. During the quarter, SAS had very strong performance, growing sales more than 14% year-over-year and exceeding margin expectations. Over the last few years, we have seen SAS capture a number of new franchise programs. And during the quarter, we made great progress on these new franchises. In the electronic warfare market, this past August, SAS delivered the first next-generation jammer mid-band engineering and manufacturing development pod to the U.S. Navy to begin ground and aircraft integration testing. And in October, we delivered the second pod. Raytheon will deliver a total of 15 EMD pods for mission systems testing and qualification, as well as 14 pods for airworthiness certification. Beyond the good growth, we are seeing on our EW programs at SAS, we are also seeing strong growth in our space and ISR program, such as the NextGen OPIR and recent classified franchise program wins. In July, SAS was selected as a radar supplier for the B-52 bomber radar modernization program, displacing the incumbent and extending our airborne radar franchise. Under the contract, Raytheon will design, develop and produce and sustain AESA radar systems for the entire U.S. Air Force B-52 fleet. With improved navigation reliability, mapping and detection range, the advanced radar upgrade will ensure the aircraft remains [Technical Difficulty] and beyond. Finally, and as I thinking about my next few years, one of my key roles in the new Raytheon Technologies will be to work with Greg Hayes to driver our combined innovative technologies into business solutions for our customers. My focus has always been to make sure we are taking our best technology, accelerating it to the businesses and embedding it in our advanced products, while making these innovative solutions relevant to our customers. A key priority for me at the future Raytheon Technologies will be to deliver technology synergies and drive technology improvements across all of our businesses and products. Before concluding, I'd like to take a moment to briefly touch on U.S. Defense Budget. As most of you know, we are again operating under a continuing resolution through November 21st, and our guidance has taken this into account. We encourage lawmakers to work swiftly to get the Defense Appropriations Bill enacted before the end of the calendar year. This is in the best interest of our customers and industry. Bottom line, the company's performance is strong. We're well-aligned with the advanced technologies needs of our customers. And we have the opportunity to shape the future of aerospace and defense with our proposed merger. I want to thank the Raytheon team worldwide for helping secure the strong position for our company, customers and shareholders. And let me turn it over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with third quarter highlights, and then we'll move onto questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the Web slides that we issued earlier this morning. Everyone would please turn to Page 2. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the third quarter with bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow, all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the third quarter of $9.4 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.27, and ended the quarter with a record backlog of $44.6 billion. Sales for the quarter were also a record at $7.4 billion, up 9.4% with growth across all of our defense businesses. Business segment operating income of $901 million grew 6.9% in the quarter. Our EPS from continuing operations was $3.08, up 36.9%, which I'll give a little more color on in just a moment. We had strong operating cash flow in the third quarter of $1.3 billion, which was better than our prior expectations. This was due to the timing of collections on some of our larger contracts, which were previously expected in the fourth quarter. Operating cash flow was higher than last year's third quarter due to the $1.25 billion discretionary pension plan contribution we made in the third quarter 2018, and the timing of collections in the third quarter 2019. At a high level, we are increasing our full year 2019 outlook for sales, operating income and EPS, as well as making other updates. And we're raising our bookings outlook by $1.5 billion for the full year. I'll provide more color on guidance in a few minutes. Turning now to Page 3. Let me start by providing some detail on our third quarter results. Company bookings continue to be strong. For the third quarter, bookings were $9.4 billion, which were approximately $700 million or 8% higher than the same period last year. These strong bookings position the company well for future growth. For the quarter, international was 34% of our total company bookings. Again, backlog at the end of the third quarter was a record $44.6 billion, up $3 billion or 7% compared to last year's third quarter. Approximately 39% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. We now move to Page 4. We had strong third quarter 2019 sales growth of 9.4%, higher than the guidance we set in July, primarily due to better-than-expected performance at our IDS, IIS and SAS businesses. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had third quarter 2019 net sales of $1.8 billion, up 18% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase from Q3 2018 included sales associated with the recognition of previously deferred costs on an international air and missile defense system program awarded in the third quarter 2019. IIS had net sales of $1.9 billion. The 6% increase compared to Q3 2018 was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs in both cyber and space. And as we've previously discussed, we expect IIS's growth rate to continue to moderate in the fourth quarter of the year due to the planned ramp down and transition on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile Systems had third quarter 2019 net sales of $2.2 billion. The 4% increase from the third quarter 2018 was primarily driven by higher net sales on classified programs. In the third quarter 2019, SAS had net sales of $1.9 billion, up 14% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase in net sales for the quarter included higher net sales on classified programs, Protected Communications Systems programs and the Next Gen OPIR program. Overall, we're very pleased with our total company sales growth for the quarter, which is up 9.4%. Moving ahead to Page 5. We delivered strong operational performance in the quarter. Our operating margin was 16.2% for the total company and 12.1% on a business segment basis, better than our expectations. Total business segment operating income is up year-over-year for both the quarter and year-to-date. So now looking at business margins. IDS third quarter 2019 operating margin was strong at 16.1%, better than our expectations and in line with last year's third quarter. IIS operating margin of 8.7% was up 10 basis points compared to last year's third quarter, better than expectations. The third quarter included a non-cash gain of $14 million on an investment. Missiles' operating margin was 10.1% in the quarter with last year's third quarter benefiting from higher net program efficiencies. SAS's third quarter 2019 operating margin was strong at 14%, better than our expectations and 80 basis points higher than last year's third quarter. The improvement in operating margin was largely driven by a favorable change in program mix. We continue to expect both total business segment and total company operating income to increase in Q4. Turning now to Page 6. Third quarter 2019 EPS was $3.08, better than expected, primarily driven by higher sales volume and the timing of productivity improvements. Third quarter 2019 EPS was higher than last year's third quarter, driven by operational improvements, primarily from higher sales volume, as well as pension related items. You may recall that last year's third quarter results included an unfavorable $0.80 per share impact related to the pension plan annuity transaction. On Page 7, we've increased our full year 2019 net sales and narrowed the range. We are raising the low-end by $300 million and the high end by $100 million. And we now expect net sales to be between $29.1 billion and $29.4 billion, up 7.5% to 8.7% from 2018. The increase versus our prior guidance is driven by IDS, IIS and SAS. We increased total business segment operating income, raising the low end by $45 million and the high end by $15 million from our prior guidance. We now expect our total business segment operating income to be in the range of $3,525 million to $3,615 million. From a total company point of view, we remain focused on operating profit and margin improvement going forward. As we've done in prior years, during the quarter, we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update, the FAS/CAS operating adjustment for the year was reduced by $9 million and the retirement benefits non-service expense for the year improved by $38 million. Taken together, they have a favorable total year impact of approximately $0.08 per share with $22 million or $0.06 per share recorded in the third quarter 2019 and $7 million or $0.02 per share expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter 2019. We've increased our full year 2019 EPS, raising the low end by $0.20 and the high end by $0.10 from our prior guidance. We now expect our EPS to be in the range of $11.70 to $11.80. I'll discuss this in a little more detail in just a moment. We continue to see our 2019 operating cash flow outlook between $4 billion and $4.2 billion. On Page 8, we've provided you with the 2019 financial outlook EPS walk to bridge our prior view in July to our current EPS guidance. At the midpoint, we are increasing our EPS outlook by $0.15 from July, driven by $0.09 from operations led by the higher sales volume we are seeing and $0.08 from improved pension. This increase is partially offset by higher merger-related expenses of $0.03 versus what we were expecting in July. On Page 9, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the full-year sales outlook at IDS, IIS, SAS and for the total company to reflect a combination of stronger bookings to-date and fourth quarter expectations. And at Missiles, we continue to see strong growth. We see their full year 2019 sales growth in the 7% to 8% range. Overall, we're pleased with the company's sales growth. The strong margin performance we saw at IIS and SAS in the third quarter and their improved margin outlook for the remainder of the year offset the margin performance of missiles. This reflects the strength of our balanced portfolio. Before moving on to Page 10, given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectations for a strong fourth quarter, we are now raising our full year 2019 bookings outlook by $1.5 billion to a range of between $32.5 billion to $33.5 billion. The increase is driven by strong demand from our global customers, and positions us well for continued growth in 2020. On Page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the fourth quarter for sales, earnings per share and operating cash flow from continuing operations. We expect our fourth quarter sales to be in a range of $7.8 billion to $8.1 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $2.93 to $3.03. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion. Now turning to our initial outlook for 2020 on Page 11. As we sit here today, we currently see the book-to-bill ratio above 1, and would expect to achieve another record backlog year. We also see strong sales growth for 2020 for the underlying Raytheon business of 6% to 8% over our 2019 outlook. And while we expect growth across all of our businesses, we would expect IDS and SAS, our highest margin businesses, to have higher growth rates than the others. Before concluding, I want to touch on two additional points. First, earlier this month, Vista Equity Partners, our joint venture partner in Forcepoint, exercised their put option to require Raytheon to purchase their interest in Forcepoint. As a result, the parties are currently engaged in the formal process under the joint venture agreement to determine the fair value of their interest. We will provide additional information after the transaction is completed. And second, the collaborative merger efforts and integration planning between Raytheon and United Technologies are well underway and continuing to progress, including the affirmative shareholder votes two weeks ago. We look forward to the next steps in the process, including continuing to work closely with regulatory authorities in U.S. and other jurisdictions to secure the required clearances and approvals for the merger. We continue to expect the merger to close in the first half of 2020. And post closing, we look forward to Raytheon Technologies delivering strong free cash flow growth and deploying a significant amount of its free cash flow to its shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. In summary, we had another strong quarter. Our bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow, were all above our expectations. We remain well positioned with both our domestic and international customers' priority areas. We increased our full year 2019 outlook for bookings, operating income and EPS, increased the sales growth range to 7.5% to 8.7% and have a strong foundation for continued sales growth of 6% to 8% in 2020. With that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Just on LTAMDS is so relevant at the moment. Tom, maybe could you provide some color on that program. How you expect this program, how it interacts with the core Patriot franchise just the opportunity internationally you mentioned $20 billion, and then maybe the radar offering how that plays into the missile option?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, it was a great win for the company and also for the future of the company moving through the years forward. This is the new radar. We'll replace all the radars for the Patriot system. It provides 360 degree capability. And so we're seeing threats that evolve that is in our requirement, I believe, by many countries, including the United States now. So this significantly changes the capability of the Patriot system, significantly enhancing it. The radar does use our GaN technology and advanced GaN capability. It has a lot of great new capabilities beyond the radar operation, especially in the area of the ability to maintain this system. It's a lot easier to maintain than the prior system. And we were getting significant requests already from the international marketplace. So obviously we'll have to get released from the U.S. government. But the demand signal has been building up here for probably the last five years or more. And I think this gives us a great capability to meet that demand moving forward. One point I would like to make is very similar to the THAAD program where have the TPY-2 radar. In addition to selling the TPY-2 as part of the THAAD system, we also sell the TPY-2 as a forward deployed radar. And we really believe based on the customer feedback that this LTAMDS radar will also meet that market and being able to provide forward deployed radars that are not necessarily part of the Patriot system itself. In other words, a standalone radar offering for a -- and demanding 360 degree market that's out there today.
Toby O'Brien:
And Sheila, this is Toby. I'll just add a couple of things. I mean this, I think Tom this in his opening remarks. But this extends your question about how this plays with Patriot today. So this is an extension that's going to carry Patriot on for decades as a franchise for Raytheon and Raytheon Technologies. Tom mentioned the $20 billion opportunity. I think that's probably a little conservative. We're going to continue to execute all our existing Patriot backlog. And then as Tom mentioned, we see demand already from foreign sales. There's going to be about 250 radars that will be subject to this upgrade. Bahrain, that Tom mentioned in his opening remarks, that's the 17th nation that will have Patriot. And this is really the premier franchise for the company, and it's going to be here well past our time for sure.
Operator:
Your next response is from David Strauss. Please go ahead.
David Strauss:
You guys have had a, I think prior you'd given a 2020 operating cash flow forecast of $4.6 billion. The numbers in the S-4 would have implied something, I think, a little bit even higher than that. And you now have a sales number that looks like it's coming in well above the S-4. So could you talk about maybe what we're looking at potentially for 2020 operating cash flow relative to that prior forecast? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
David, I'm not going to get into specific cash flow numbers for 2020, and I'll tell you why. So we provided some insights into the underlying business focused on, we look at strong book to bill next year, another record backlog in the sales growth. We didn't get into specifics around income or margin, or cash flow for that matter, really because with the pending merger, there's going to be a lot of things that are going to impact it compared to business as usual. That said, what I can tell you -- and I'll go a little bit broader than cash flow. From a underlying operational point of view, nothing has changed as it relates to how we're thinking about margins, our operating profit, our underlying ability to generate cash flow in 2020 and beyond. We still see opportunities there to grow our operating profit, expand margins, deliver strong free cash flow. And I think in a relative to the $4.6 billion from confirmation or affirmation, it's still a number. We're not backing off of that. But we'll give more precise numbers obviously post merger closing.
Operator:
Your next response is from Peter Arment.
Peter Arment:
Congrats on LTAMDS, maybe I'd just come back to it. Toby, what was factored into the S-4 kind of forecast? And then maybe just thinking about the contract structure here where you're funding 30% development costs. How do we think about that? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure. Let me start with the second part of the question first. So you know the contract vehicle here, it is a OTA or an -- and other transaction authority, which doesn't work the same as a traditional contract in many ways. So essentially the way to think of it, we're performing R&D, research and development and customer will be reimbursing us for a portion of that effort. And there will also be some related capital to support it as well. As far as the projections in the S-4, if you think about this initial effort, this $384 million under the OTA that goes out into 2022 and all of our projections are factored. So the majority of this, the comment Tom made and I reinforced around the $20 billion, the majority of that would be on beyond the five year window that you saw in the S-4.
Operator:
Your next response is from the line of Robert Spingran. Please go ahead.
Robert Spingarn:
Just a clarification on LTAMDS given those questions. But is this the kind of thing, Toby, you say beyond 2022 is a good number in 10 radars a year, just trying to size it, 20 a year. And then my primary question is just on Missile Systems, and the margins there have been under pressure for a while now. And I think we saw some charges there after the fact as we went through your 10-Qs. So Tom, could you dig into what's happening at Missile Systems and how you get back to I guess it's a 13% implied number for Q4.
Toby O'Brien:
So Rob, I'll hit the LTAMDS question first. So it's kind of hard to put a number on number of radars a year. We still need to get approval for any international sale through the U.S. government once we get through the OTA and these initial production representative units. But again, I'd just remind everyone there's 250 units that are out there that would be eligible to upgrade. And given the capabilities that these systems have, we would expect that if not all, the majority of those would be ultimately upgraded. And it may not be coming across -- I did say it's our premier franchise. We're really excited about this and the benefits that it brings to the company. And I'll let Tom start on the Missiles question and then I'll...
Tom Kennedy:
Toby may be excited about it. But I can tell you I'm very, very excited about it. I mean, this radar has capability that has not been seen on a battlefield in any place in the world, and I think it's just going to change the entire dynamics relative to integrated air and missile defense for the U.S. forces and also its coalition partners. And then let me switch over into missiles. You're right. We're not happy about where the margins are right now with missiles. You can imagine that both Toby and I are taking a lot of interest in this area. We have made some major changes in the leadership out at Missiles. And we're already starting to see improvements in certain areas. And the fundamentals do remain strong. They have a strong business. We have two multi-years that were finalized the negotiations with, one is on the Standard Missile-6 and the other one is on the SM-3 Block 1B. And in addition to that we're negotiating kind of almost like a three lot but its three years of production on the SM-3 Block 2A. And in addition to that, we're in final negotiations on the SM-2. Like the whole Standard Missile family is being bought left and right. And so a lot of opportunity in the future in production. The missile company has had some productivity issues on some programs, which we believe we're on a road to clean up. But they also have got a quite a bit of classified business on board, which is a lot of development business, which has inherently lower margins. So by getting these multi-years in and these other production programs in, we'll increase the base, the production base with the higher margin content, which we believe will help us moving forward. In addition, we are significantly concentrated on the productivity improvements across all their programs, even their development programs. And so we're taking the best practices from across the company and applying them. One of my passions is program management excellence and we're all over that, and making sure that we're not missing anything in any of the areas. We have done quite a bit of work in leaning out our manufacturing facilities and upgrading them, and bringing in robotics and automation across the board to drive productivity improvements. We have done and completed all deep dives on any of these problem programs and we have them on the road back to recovery, which means on the road back to higher margins. So we do believe there is a solid path forward to getting back to the 13%-plus margins that this business traditionally has had. But we're going to drive beyond that and we're not going to be happy with what they achieved best in the past. We're going to continue to drive margins as high as possible. And I believe, looking at their business base in the out years and their mix starting to change relative to the heavy amount of production coming on board that we will attain that greater than 13% margins for that business.
Toby O'Brien:
So Rob, let me just add a little bit specific here to Q4 part of your question. So I think you're right in sizing Q4, the high 12% into the 13% range. So given that, maybe a little bit of color on Q3 to try to help bridge to Q4. So as Tom said, below our expectations for the quarter, but we also acknowledge and recognize we're not going to turn things around overnight or within a quarter. That said, I think it's important to note that within Q3, we did have about a 50 basis point impact to the margins from some investments in the quarter to position the Company on a couple of competitive awards, which were not previously contemplated in the guidance. So things came up in the quarter in a favorable way that led us to make these investments, number one, and again, about 50 basis points worth. If you back that out and you look at Q3, we probably would have been in the high 10% range. And then the way I think about it, given that we're not going to solve things in a quarter. If I look at Q2, which admittedly was strong for the business compared to how they started the year, and you kind of take the average of Q2 and Q3, excluding the investments I referred to, they performed in the 11% range, give or take. So bridging 11% to Q4, it's really about half and half between mix improvement and net productivity improvement. The mix improvement in part we expect to be driven by a couple awards, one international one domestic where we would see some inventory liquidation, and those are production type awards that would naturally carry higher margins with it, and then again as I said, the other half coming from improved productivity. We do expect beyond the fourth quarter, Missiles margins to improve year over year into 2020. I won't repeat everything that Tom said. But we do believe there is a path over the next call it 12 months, 18 months to get this business performing back where we know it can.
Operator:
You next response is from Seth Seifman.
Seth Seifman:
Toby, I wondered if you could talk a little bit in the S-4 there's some really nice margin expansion, if you exclude the FAS\/CAS as we move from 2019 into '20. Should we be thinking about that same level of margin expansion with the higher sales base? And then you talked about the mix changing with IDS and SAS growing relatively fast. Is that the key driver or are there other things that we should focus on?
Toby O'Brien:
So look, I'm not going to get into program details or specificity around that. But what I can tell you, just as a reminder, the S-4 information that was used to evaluate the merger, right, that's relatively dated. We've provided top line updates to how we're thinking of 2020. And again, that 6% to 8% is off of a higher outlook for 2019 than we were previously expecting. We do intend, and we will continue on focusing on expanding both the absolute profit contribution the business has as well as working to expand margins. We went back and looked in the last couple, three years going back to '16 we've done a pretty good job at increasing that segment profit contribution to the Company. It's a 20%-plus increase, about 6.5% compound growth over the last three years. So I think we have the formula there. I did mention that IDS and SAS are growing more relatively speaking than the other businesses next year, even though we expect growth across all of them and they are the highest margin businesses we have in the portfolio right now. So I think that bodes well for 2020 and beyond.
Operator:
Your next response is from George Shapiro.
George Shapiro:
Can you walk us through where you stand in terms of Warfighter sales? I know you were expecting them to come down all through the year, but the strength in the margin and the growth this quarter suggests that maybe they continued to lag. And then the second part, one for Tom. With Vista putting the option to you, would you probably wind up selling or getting rid of Forcepoint before the merger closes? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure, George. Let me start with the Warfighter. So for 2019 total year, we do expect Warfighter to be down about 40% year-over-year, which is about $400 million. A bit of a disproportionate amount of that coming in the fourth quarter I think in the $125 million to $150 million range, so maybe a third of that decrease. I think the IIS team has done a good job maximizing through the transition period the continuation of that effort. And sitting here today looking at Warfighter and the related scope -- follow-on scope for next year, probably going to be down another third. So in absolute terms, I think maybe $400 million contribution to revenue next year, down $200 million or a third from the levels in '19. But again, as we've said, as expected, right, we knew what the transition looked like and how it was going to play out and things are continuing on that way. IIS keeps performing well even unrelated to Warfighter, right. They're executing across the portfolio in a strong way. They've had a couple one-time type of events, but even without that their margin performance for the year is better than last year. So I'll kind of leave it with that and let Tom jump in on Forcepoint.
Tom Kennedy:
On Forcepoint, as Toby mentioned in his opening remarks, Vista Equity Partners, did exercise their put option to require Raytheon to purchase their interest in Forcepoint. And so we soon will own 100% of Forcepoint. And our plans have not changed. From the day one, we still plan to expect to monetize Forcepoint to create value for our shareholders and then we saw some -- there's a lot of optionality relative to how we do monetize that. But it all remains in play in terms of monetizing the asset.
Operator:
Your next response is from Cai Von Rumohr.
Cai Von Rumohr:
So could you tell us how big classified was in terms of sales and bookings in the third quarter and expected for the year? And also Lockheed mentioned on their call that they expect counter-hypersonics awards to pick up, that they have been lower. And maybe be a little bit -- us some guidance in terms of what you expect in that area.
Tom Kennedy:
For the third quarter, 21% of the total sales was classify and also 21% of the bookings was classified. And so it is a major part of the company. And just one note here is the classified work is -- we use the term here, it's the seed corn for our future. In other words, it's the funding that helps us develop that technology we have and take it forward. And then in the area of the counter-hypersonics, it's an area that we have actually been getting contracts and a lot of it's been in the classified area for the last five years. So it is a big part of our business, and it's not just on the missile stuff. As I mentioned before, the hypersonics includes the complete fire control chain, including the sensors that are required to be able to detect the hypersonic missiles, the command and control that takes that information, determines what weapon to release to impact that hypersonic missile it's going after against. And so it's distributed across the entire Raytheon company right now and across every one of our businesses has some type of counter hypersonic work that is going on. So it is a big part of our efforts here at Raytheon and growing, and thus also the whole hypersonic area by itself is growing for us.
Toby O'Brien:
And I think, Cai, I think you asked about total year for classified too. And think of it very similar to Q3 right around call it 20% plus or minus a point one way or the other for both the bookings and sales, and based upon the outlook for the year we'll have a record year for classified sales this year as well.
Operator:
Your next response is from Carter Copeland.
Carter Copeland:
Just expansion a little bit on LTAMDS. I wondered if you could maybe dive into that whole self-funded R&D piece there and if that has any implications for IP or competition or lack thereof overtime, how does that compare long term to where you've been with Patriot.
Toby O'Brien:
So I'll give you my answer and then Tom can jump in, right. So as part of the OTA, there is an arrangement around IP rights, for lack of a better way to say it. I feel very good about the deal that we ultimately struck here. I think it gives the government what they want and it gives us what we want. And I would say it this way, based upon what I know today, I feel really confident in our ability to achieve that $20 billion plus of opportunity to install LTAMDS as upgrades on the 250 fire units worldwide.
Tom Kennedy:
And I think one of the other differences with this program, and I'll attribute it to the structure of the contract is we're going to be able to move much faster and in terms of getting a system through development and into production than we could on traditional contracts. And I think that's going to help us vis-à-vis our whole game here is to get through the development program, get it into production, into the hands of our customers which then creates additional demand, both domestically and internationally. So I think all over. I think we're in a very good track with the LTAMDS and having the right IP to be able to retain our position for the next several decades.
Operator:
Your next response is from Ron Epstein. Please go ahead.
Ron Epstein:
So one question, two parts, second part is related to the first. So in the post LTAMDS thing, we got that, right. So that's great. What's the next thing on the horizon that you're looking for? What are the next big prizes out there? And then the second question is just assuming everything goes through with RTX, what can you bid for that you couldn't bid for today with the new capabilities you'll have?
Toby O'Brien:
Let me take that. There is a whole range of new advanced systems that we're pursuing, a lot of them under the umbrella of classified. So it's very hard for us to kind of go in and describe them, but I'll give you two very large ones. One is the Precision Strike Missile, the PrSM missile that replaces the existing ATACMS system that's out there today. That is a program that we're heavily engaged in. The Army has already down-selected to two contractors
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Ditamara, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Next response is from Peter Skibitski.
Peter Skibitski:
Maybe your SAS kind of results and guidance already kind of addressed this, but how are you thinking about DOD's new space architecture that's kind of emerging and the opportunity set there, the market size, and as it relates to SAS?
Tom Kennedy:
Well, it turns out, it relates to both SAS and IIS. IIS on the ground segment and SAS on the sensor side and also on part of that architecture, and we've been playing heavily into it. I think the area that has us very, very interested in because it's kind of new is the whole area of contested space and how that plays into this overall new space architecture. And as you can imagine, it's a new area. There's a lot of classified work. And if you look at SAS is probably the most classified business that we have and then you have IIS with I think the second the business with a lot of classified work in that area.
Toby O'Brien:
And just to kind of put a wrapper around it for SAS. As we mentioned earlier, it's effectively neck and neck with IDS as our highest growing business this year. It's got the second highest margins. We're real pleased with what they've been doing, not only in space but in ISR as well. So they're having a real good year and positioned well to continue that into 2020.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
That's all the time we have today. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter conference call in January.
Operator:
Thank you for calling us today. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon First (sic) [Second] Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shannon and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then move onto questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the Company's future plans, objectives and expected performance and the proposed merger with UTC constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. And with respect to the proposed merger and related matters in the registration statement on Form S-4 filed by UTC with the SEC on July 17th 2019. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon delivered very strong operating performance in the second quarter; sales increased 8.1% and our bookings, sales, operating margin, EPS and operating cash flow all exceeded our expectations. We continue to see strong global demand for advanced solutions. Our book-to-bill ratio in the second quarter was 1.32, this drove an increase in backlog of $3.3 billion year-over-year to a new record backlog of over $43 billion. Given these strong results, the opportunities we see in the second half of the year and the strength of our domestic bookings we are increasing our bookings outlook for the year by $1.5 billion. Our 2019 bookings performance positions us well for continued growth in the future. Also, we are increasing our outlook for sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow for the year. Toby will discuss additional details and that our second quarter performance and increases the guidance in a few minutes. This strong quarter with a healthy book-to-bill ratio and record backlog is clear evidence that we are making the right investments, in the right innovative technologies to position the Company for strong growth in the future. Additionally, I want to take a few minutes to discuss the breadth of Raytheon's franchises and the strength of our advanced and innovative technologies that are positioning the Company for this future growth. As we think about our franchises, we not only extend them by refreshing their technology, we also seek to take them internationally to broaden our markets. This has been our strategy with our combat proven Patriot franchise were during the quarter, we continue to make progress on international opportunities. In May, we booked almost $500 million on our next phase award with Romania to purchase Patriot. Additional follow-on awards to complete the program are expected to be booked in 2020 and 2021. We continue to see the total Raytheon Romania Patriot opportunity to be around $2 billion. And in June, we booked, almost $400 million on an award with the State of Qatar, the current member of the Patriot 16 country coalition to purchase additional Patriot capabilities. In July, we received an award from Germany for over $100 million to upgrade 14 Patriot fire units to the current configuration three plus. As you can see nations want to protect their sovereignty in demand signal for proven defensive systems like Patriot is strong in global. Demand for our integrated air and missile defense solutions is also driving growth in another key franchise. Over the last few months, we've added two new countries to the NASAMS family, a mid-range solution jointly manufactured by Raytheon and Kongsberg. In May, we booked over $500 million to provide NASAMS for Australia. And in early July, after the quarter close, we received the $1.8 billion award to provide Qatar with NASAMS. Qatar is 11th country to procure NASAMS, which uses a Raytheon radar and a fires multiple interceptors; including our AMRAAM, AMRAAM extended range and AIM-9X Missiles. As a result, NASAMS helps us expand two more of our franchises AMRAAM and AIM-9X. For AMRAAM, Raytheon is continuing to expand capability with the development of the AMRAAM extended range and expansion of capability to support land-based applications. As part of Qatar's procurement on the NASAMS system, we will also be the launch customer of the AMRAAM ER surface to air missile, which significantly extends both the range in the market on the NASAMS system. We expect the foreign military sales contract award from Qatar for AMRAAM ER next year. Given the current and projected domestic and SMS orders, we have line of sight to a production pipeline for AMRAAM for at least the next 15 years. In May, Raytheon launched an AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II missile for the first time from NASAMS, and engaged and destroyed a target during a flight test supported by the Royal Norwegian Air Force. This flight test opens the door for NASAMS customers to add a vital, short range layer to the ground based air defense to give them complementary interceptors to better engage and destroy threats. In the Airborne radar market, for innovating to extend franchises with our advanced Active Electronically Scanned Array or AESA solutions. In July, Raytheon was selected as a radar supplier for the B-52 bomber radar modernization program. Displacing the incumbent and extending our Airborne radar franchise. Under the contract Raytheon will design, develop, produce and sustain AESA radar systems for the entire US Air Force B-52 fleet. With improved navigation, reliability, mapping and detection range, the advanced radar upgrade will ensure the aircraft remains mission ready through 2050 and beyond. Technology is the backbone of Raytheon, and we had many accomplishments in the quarter that highlighted our capabilities. For example, during the quarter we announced that IIS is working with the US Military's V-22 Joint Program Office to test a new artificial intelligence tool to provide prognostic to better determine when repairs are needed for the multi-mode radar installed on the US Air Force CV-22 Ospreys. By using performance data we're already collecting on CV-22 radars, an AI tool can tell us exactly when the radar may need to be repaired or replaced, keeping the plane in service longer and saving money for the government. Raytheon and the Air Force are working on this pilot program with benefits expected as early as 2020. In June, our StormBreaker weapon completed operational testing moving a closer to initial operational capability and bringing this new capability to our domestic and international markets. This smart weapon is packed with innovative technology and has a trial mode seeker and data linked with embedded machine learning. As a result the seeker can detect, classify and track targets even in adverse weather conditions from stand-off ranges, and can eliminate a wide range of targets with fewer aircraft reducing the pilots time in harm's way. And in May, Raytheon successfully completed technical testing at White Sands Missile Range in support of the Sense-Off for the US Army's Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor. A two week missile defense demonstration highlighted Raytheon's readiness to deliver mission critical LTAMDS capability to the US Army. Our clean sheet approach and decades long investments in gallium nitride technology allowed us to demonstrate and deliver a mature solution that will meet the Army's initial operational capability. Our solution also showcased advanced capabilities and ease of maintenance and sustainment to soldiers. Earlier this month, we submitted a written proposal on LTAMDS addressing the Army's key evaluation criteria, and we are confident that we have the right advanced solution for our customer. In July, we completed a successful test of our Solid Rocket Motor for DeepStrike. Raytheon's offering for the US Army's Precision Strike Missile or PRISM program. PRISM will replace the ATACMS missile. Whether it be from our record backlog, breadth or franchises that we continue to refresh and take internationally. Our innovative technology solutions for our customers. The company is focused in firing on all cylinders. Our competitive win rates for Raytheon are around 70%, up from 50% a few years ago. We have a strong outlook for our business for the next five years, 10 years and beyond. In addition, we are also optimistic about the strength of the defense market, both domestically and internationally. For the US Defense market, the DoD budget environment continues to be strong with modernization accounts demonstrating healthy growth over the last few years. And internationally, the dynamic and unpredictable geopolitical environment continues to generate strong demand for advanced solutions across the regions of Europe, MENA and Asia Pacific. We begin the second half with continued confidence in our growth outlook and operating performance. It is from this position of strength and strong outlook that we agreed to combined with United Technologies Aerospace businesses and a merger of equals transaction. It was a little over a year ago when we also had a strong outlook for Raytheon and in defense market that I approach Greg Hayes. I did so because I was excited about what Raytheon and UTC could accomplish together by combining our technology to both further strengthen our current franchises and create new ones. Given the growth in the DoD research and development spending and the broad shift to new technologies to provide solutions to counter peer threats. In 2018 and 2019, the growth rates for the R&D accounts were higher than the growth rates of the base budget in overall modernization accounts. This growth trend is expected to continue in 2020 and beyond to support the National Defense Strategy. And plays to the strength of the combined company and as well aligned to the NDS priorities. By combining our technologies with UTCs complementary technologies, we can go after and win an increased number of these franchise opportunities. These revenue synergy opportunities from a combined technologies will turn into franchises and continue to be value generators for decades to come. Positioning the combined company to increase market share and outgrow the aerospace and defense markets. There are numerous examples of these revenue synergies; including, improved directed weapons by having an enhanced power source; opportunities to incorporate our new expeditionary landing system on military aircraft by changing software in a cockpit; using air traffic control experience to better position us to participate in upcoming air traffic control modernization competitions. And using engine signature management technology to better position us on a multi-billion dollar franchise opportunity. These are the few of the many revenue synergy examples that we expect to achieve as a combined company. The bottom line is we can start creating these revenue synergies immediately. On day one of becoming a combined company. These potential revenue synergies from our complementary technologies are sizable and in a multi-billions of dollars. In short, we are convinced of the merits of the transaction with UTC, and are confident about the benefits it will bring to our shareholders, customers and employees. Let me close by thanking all the members of the Raytheon team worldwide. They are the ones and we're developing the solutions to grow our franchises; meeting customer needs and delivering the performance; it gives us such a strong outlook. Thank you for helping us continue to create the trusted innovative solutions; we're known for around the world; and for helping us meet our commitments to our customers and shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks Tom. I have a few opening remarks. Starting with the second quarter highlights, and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to Page 2. We are pleased with the very strong performance the team delivered in the second quarter with bookings, sales, operating margin, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had record bookings in the second quarter of $9.5 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.32, and ended the quarter with a record backlog of $43.1 billion. Sales were $7.2 billion in the quarter, up 8.1% with growth across all of our businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.92 better than our guidance and an increase of 5% year-over-year. I'll give a little more color on this in just a moment. We generated strong operating cash flow of over $800 million in the second quarter, which was also better than our prior guidance primarily due to favorable collections. During the quarter, the company repurchased 1.7 million shares of common stock for $300 million bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.4 million shares for $800 million. I want to point out that under the merger agreement with United Technologies, we are restricted from repurchasing shares, I will discuss this further a little later. At a high level, we are increasing our full-year 2019 outlook for sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow, as well as making other updates. I'll provide more color on guidance in a few minutes. And as Tom mentioned earlier, we are raising our bookings outlook by $1.5 billion for the full-year. Turning now to Page 3. Let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Company bookings for the second quarter were $9.5 billion, approximately $800 million or 9% higher than the same period last year. And on a year-to-date basis, bookings were $14.8 billion, which were essentially in line with the comparable period last year. As Tom mentioned, the strong bookings positioned the company well for future growth. For the quarter, international was 33% of our total company bookings. Again, backlog at the end of the second quarter was a record $43.1 billion, up over $3 billion or 8%, compared to last year's second quarter. Approximately 38% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. If you now move to Page 4. For the second quarter of 2019, sales were above the high-end of the guidance we set in April. Primarily due to better-than-expected performance at our IIS missiles and SAS businesses. For the second quarter, our international sales were approximately 30% of total sales. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had second quarter 2019 net sales of $1.6 billion, up 8%, compared with the same quarter last year. The increase from Q2 2018 was primarily driven by higher sales on international Patriot programs. In the second quarter 2019, IIS had net sales of $1.8 billion, the 5% increase, compared with Q2 2018 was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs in both cyber and space. And as we've previously discussed, we expect IISs growth rate to moderate in the back half of the year, due to the planned ramp down and transition on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile Systems had second quarter 2019 net sales of $2.2 billion, up 8%, compared with the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net sales on classified programs, the high-speed anti-radiation Missile Program and the Phalanx program. SAS had net sales of $1.8 billion, an increase of 13%, compared with last year's second quarter. The increase in net sales for the quarter included higher net sales on classified programs; the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared program and an international tactical radar systems program. And for Forcepoint, sales, were up 5%, compared with the same quarter last year. Overall, we're pleased with our strong total company sales, which grew 8.1% in the quarter. Moving ahead to Page 5. We delivered strong operational performance in the quarter. Our operating margin was 16.4% for the total company and 12% on a business segment basis. Our business segment margins were up 30 basis points versus last year's second quarter and better than our expectations at all the businesses. It's important to note that the company incurred $23 million of merger-related expenses in the second quarter of 2019, which was not included in the prior guidance and had an unfavorable impact of approximately 30 basis points in the quarter for the total company operating margin. Without these expenses, total company operating margin would have been up versus last year's second quarter. So looking now at margins by business. IDSs second quarter 2019 operating margin was 16.1% better than our expectations. You may recall, last year's second quarter benefited from improved productivity. IISs operating margin was particularly strong at 9.1%, up 150 basis points, compared to last year's second quarter, driven by higher net program efficiencies in the quarter. Missile's operating margin was 11.4% in the quarter, up 10 basis points, compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by a favorable change in program mix. SAS margin was essentially in line in the quarter, compared with the same period last year. And at Forcepoint, as we discussed on past calls, operating income was negative for the quarter, due to the seasonality of their business. We expect Forcepoint's operating income to be positive in both the third quarter and fourth quarters of 2019. From a total company point of view, we remain focused on operating profit and margin improvement going forward, and continue to see our business segment margins in the 12.1% to 12.3% range for the full-year. However, we now expect operating profit dollars in total to be higher due to sales and margin improvement at IIS. We see our segment margin improving in the back half of the year, driven by favorable program mix and productivity improvements. Turning now to Page six. Second quarter 2019 EPS was $2.92, 5% higher than last year's second quarter and was better than our expectations. Operating performance drove strong Q2 EPS, due to higher sales volume, higher margins and pension related items. As I previously mentioned, the merger-related expenses incurred in the second quarter of 2019 were not included in the prior guidance and had an unfavorable EPS impact of $0.06 in the quarter. Also as a reminder, last year's second quarter included a favorable tax related EPS impact of $0.33 related to a discretionary pension plan contribution. On Page 7, we've provided you with a 2019 financial outlook walk to bridge our prior view in April to our current guidance. I want to point out that we are now providing business segment and total operating income to show the progress we are making. As I mentioned earlier, we are increasing full year 2019 outlook for sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow to reflect our improved operating performance, as well as for lower corporate interest and other non-operating expenses. Let me take you through each of these items. In operations, we increased the sales range by $200 million, driven by higher domestic orders at IIS. We now expect our company sales to be up approximately 6.5% to 0.5% for the full year. This sales increase attributable to the IIS along with their margin improvement contributes about $30 million of operating income or $0.09 to 2019 full-year EPS. We're also increasing the operating cash flow outlook by $100 million to reflect higher anticipated collections in the year. Next, we've lowered corporate expenses by approximately $25 million improving EPS for the full-year by about $0.07. We are improving our net interest expense and other non-operating expenses, which in total is worth about $0.08 to EPS, compared to our prior guidance. Taken together, before accounting for merger-related items, we're improving 2019 full-year EPS by $0.24. These improvements to operating income and EPS are partially offset by merger-related expenses, which were not included in our prior guidance. We expect to incur approximately $40 million or $0.11 of expenses related to the merger in 2019, of which $23 million was incurred in the second quarter. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier as a result of the pending merger, we are restricted from repurchasing shares. This has an unfavorable $0.03 impact to our prior full-year 2019 EPS guidance. To summarize, we increased the sales range by $200 million and now expect our full-year 2019 guidance for net sales to be in the range of between $28.8 billion and $29.3 billion, up approximately 6.5% to 8.5% from 2018. The year-over-year increase was driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. We've increased our full-year 2019 outlook for segment operating income by $30 million and full-year 2019 EPS by $0.10 from our prior guidance, and now expect it to be in a range of $11.50 to $11.70. As discussed, the increase is driven by our improved operational performance in the second quarter, as well as expectations for the back half of the year. Moving to operating cash flow from continuing operations. As a result of the improved collections to-date discussed earlier, and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are updating our 2019 operating cash flow outlook to be between $4 billion and $4.2 billion. Similar to last year, our cash flow profile was more heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter, due to the timing of program milestones and collections on some of our larger contracts. On Page 8, we've provided you with our standard updated 2019 financial outlook, most of which I just discussed. Before moving on, I want to point out that we now see an improvement to net interest expense of approximately $10 million, and now expect it to be approximately $145 million for the full-year, reflecting higher average cash balances. And we have updated our diluted share count to be approximately 281 million shares for 2019. On Page 9, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the full-year sales outlook at IIS and for the total company to reflect the combination of stronger bookings and sales to-date and second half expectations. Now turning to margin, we've increased the range and expect higher full-year operating margin performance for IIS. The strong year-to-date results exceeded our prior estimates. And as I discussed earlier, for the full-year 2019 we increased operating income dollars at the business segment level by $30 million. Before moving on to Page 10, as I mentioned earlier, we are now raising our full-year 2019 bookings outlook to a range of between $31 billion to $32 billion, this reflects a $1.5 billion increase from the prior range and is driven by increased strong demand from our domestic customers. On Page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the third quarter of 2019. We expect our third quarter sales to be in a range of $7.2 billion to $7.3 billion, and we expect EPS from continuing operations for Q3 to be in a range of $2.78 to $2.83. And for operating cash flow, we expect Q3 to be in a range of $800 million to $1 billion. Before concluding, the collaborative merger efforts and integration planning between Raytheon and United Technologies are under way and progressing well, including the recent S-4 filing last week. We look forward to the next steps in the process; including the definitive proxy filing and the shareholder vote later this year. And post closing, we look forward to Raytheon Technologies delivering strong free cash flow growth and deploying a significant amount of free cash flow to its shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. In summary, we had strong performance in the quarter, our bookings, sales, operating margin, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher-than-expected. We increased our full-year 2019 outlook for bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and operating cash flow. We remain well positioned for continued growth. With that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays. Your line is open.
David Strauss:
Tom, could you touch on Missiles the performance here in the quarter and the changes that you've put in place there? Did those things, kind of, take hold faster than you thought. Just an overall update on the progress there? Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
So David. Thanks for the question. I think number one is the issues that Missiles are not as significant as I think some folks think. But we did put, we did change out some leadership, we put in our team to and we have some of the call program management, best practices. We went in and audited all their programs relative to those. Made some, I would call it, was more tune ups across the board, but we think Missiles is a strong company we think it has a lot of upside potential in the future and we were just putting our normal, I would call it best practices in place on program management. We've done and we did some deep dive and some of the programs that had some of the issues and put corrective actions in on those. And the other thing we have a lot of development activities going on, we're really trying to accelerate those development activities and get those into production as soon as possible, the main reason is to drive higher margin positions. And the other big area and this is a future thing for another uplift for Missiles is, they are right now, they are in the midst of negotiating two five-year multi-years; one is on the Standard Missile-6 and the other is on the SM-3 and that'll be a big plus to and obviously increased - significantly increasing the factory base for over about a period of seven years. So we're very upbeat about Missiles, I think they have a lot of upside to go, we're going to continue to press and driving them in that direction.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies & Company. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Tom, I just wanted to follow-up on your remarks at the Paris Air Show with regards to the state of the business, you touched on it a little bit. But over the next decade, maybe if you could expand on how you see that going above and just given the S-4, it seems like you have a very robust business profile on a stand-alone basis. So it didn't quite jive with those comments?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, so let me clarify the comments in Paris. First, as you saw from the strong performance this quarter, and also obviously defined in the S-4. We grew over 8% and achieved record backlog levels, and so bottom line is, Raytheon is very well positioned even as a stand-alone company, and we are well positioned for the next 10 years, 20 years and 50 years and beyond. At Paris, I was trying to convey something and that was really, it was really about the fact that, if we were to stop and I mean stop investing in IRAD and stop our CapEx efforts at Raytheon, it would eventually limit our growth potential and it was really under the auspices that we're in, and the environment we are today that it's a time where the DoD customers increasing its research development budgets and the spending of those budgets to support next generation systems. So as, you know, over the years - several years we have increased our internal investing in research and development, and also our CapEx to position the company for this future growth. And as a result, Raytheon is very well positioned even as a stand-alone company; for example, over the last few years, we won numerous franchises and accelerated our sales growth. And so bottom line is, let me be very clear here on this one, we are very confident about the proposed merger with United Technologies and how that combination will even further enhance value for our shareholders, customers and employees. But even as a stand-alone company Raytheon is very well positioned for the next 20 years and beyond.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS. Your line is open.
Myles Walton:
I was hoping you could comment on two things; one, is just update us on the export licenses for the precision weapons. I imagine, you probably have them by now; and the second would be on the lower tier Air Missile Defense Sensor. The contract structure there is a rapid acquisition, and I guess the contractor is expected to self-fund about a third of it. Is that accomplished in your R&D profile and is that allowable expense back to the customer. Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
I'll start on the first one around the PGMs. So you're right, we recently did receive approved licenses from the State Department for about $1.2 billion worth of the PGMs that were previously awarded, but not - had not yet received our export approval, and we're now in the process of coordinating delivery of the completed product with our Mid-East customers. So some good progress there over the last couple of months.
Tom Kennedy:
And on the lower tier system, I think it's really - and you probably know we are significantly pursuing that system, and we've been spending in several years developing the technologies for the - let me call it the way LTAMDS system. We believe we're very well positioned for that capability and to provide it the Army and so that they can be able to defend the most challenging complex in the integrated attacks. As I mentioned in my remarks, we did participate in the sense-off, I believe we put our best foot forward on that and provided the degree capability and actually demonstrated it at the sense-off. It was a wildfire environment, so we had a track life targets, we are able to demonstrate our unique technology that we brought to the game here at White Sands, and it was over a two-week demonstration period. And we have delivered our proposal you're right, the contract structure is something called it another transactional and it's a OTA and it does have a requirement for 30%, the content that can be provided by non-traditional contractors. And so, and that's the - there is, so there's two elements to that and we are working with non-traditional contractors and having them involved in helping us on that program. Bottom line, we're confident that solution that we provided for LTAMDS and - sometime in the September timeframe the Army said that they're going to make that final selection.
Operator:
The next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Seth Seifman:
I wanted to ask a quick question about the S-4 and so we look at the data in there we're kind of looking at 5-ish percent growth out in 2022 and 2023. And when we look at the investment account budget for fiscal '20 that's been submitted, and probably consistent with the budget deal announced this week, it's flat to slightly up in the investment account maybe something kind of similar in '21. Based on your visibility and your programs domestically and internationally, would that kind of flat to slightly up investment accounts in '20 and '21 be consistent with that 5% growth in '22 and '23?
Toby O'Brien:
Yes, Seth. It's Toby. Let me take a crack at that here. So I think if you step back from the S-4, while we hadn't previously quantified anything we've been pretty consistent in saying that based upon at many points in time where our backlog was, our bookings outlook, the alignment with both domestic and international customer needs. We saw that we were going to be able to continue to grow the company beyond in this case 2019 for the next three or four years, right? So S-4 is directionally consistent with that type of commentary that we provided in the past. The other thing, I would point out here, right? We have been continuing to make our investments, both from an R&D point of view or capital point of view in ways that aligned with customer priorities as dictated by the NDS and clearly as have been funded through the last few budget cycles, especially in the RDT&E account. I think, you know, more importantly, it's worth noting that since the date of the projections in the Form S-4, right? We are increasing our 2019 sales guidance that we just talked about this morning, as well as because of the increase in our bookings, the expected backlog that would have entering 2020, which gives us a high degree of confidence in our ability to continue to grow the company at or beyond levels that we - that you see in the S-4.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Your line is open.
Cai von Rumohr:
So, one of your competitors mentioned that they have 3.5 billion of orders for hypersonic missiles about five or six programs. Could you update us on your position in hypersonics and your backlog with respect to both offensive and defensive hypersonics. Thanks so much.
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, Cai, let me, cover that. I mean as we've discussed in the past, both hypersonics and counter hypersonics are the areas we continue to invest in for future growth and participate in DoD programs in that area. And we're actively working multiple hypersonics, encounter hypersonics programs, for example, we have the Hawk system, the Tactical Boost Glide, and we're also participating in the Navy's Conventional Prompt Strike and also the Army's long range hypersonic weapons programs, and also some other classified hypersonic and also counter hypersonic program. So it is becoming a big part of our portfolio moving forward, and there's really three main categories including the air breathing hypersonics weapons and that's the Hawk program and as we discussed on past calls, this program is successfully executing, it did complete a free jet two testing at NASA's Langley 8 foot in a high temperature tunnel, and then final analysis though show a great comparison between the predictions and test results, and so it's substantiating our system range performance predictions and putting us toward on the next step. And you probably saw in the press, we have signed agreement with Northrop, we are working with them on developing and producing the next generation Scramjet combustors and to help power the Raytheon's air breathing hypersonic weapons. The second category is the hypersonic boost glide weapons they call them TBGs or Tactical Boost Glide and ground-launched hypersonic boost glide weapons back in February of this year. DARPA did award Raytheon and TBG contract and so we're off and working on effort. And we're also developing several counter hypersonic weapons and also the entire integrated counter hypersonic kill chain; including the sensors and as I mentioned, on the calls, we really believe that the counter hypersonic market is actually larger than the hypersonic market for multiple reasons; one, is it not only doesn't include the weapons to counter the hypersonic weapons, but it also includes the entire kill chain communications and sensors. And so Raytheon continues to build this presence in both the hypersonic encounter hypersonic market, we're continuously and strategically investing in some of these top technology areas to make sure that we have the right solutions to bring forward to in the future competitions in both the hypersonic and counter hypersonic area. And as we mentioned, there are multiple potential revenue synergies also with the proposed merger with the UTC from some of their complementary technologies relative to hot areas of engines in the materials required to it use in those areas. And so we see those complementary technology solutions helping us even further in our hypersonic areas.
Toby O'Brien:
And Cai, let me just add a little bit on the financial side of things, right? So, especially in the area of, kind of, hypersonics right, that gets across all elements of our company. Okay, not just our missiles business and as you can imagine there are parts of that, that are classified or highly classified. So we're a little constrained on what we can, kind of, put out there. What I can tell you as it relates to our missiles business only right, relative to the work that they're doing on the vehicles and related to hypersonics. We'd expect revenue in the aggregate about $300 million this year and for a growing backlog. Their backlog grew here in the second quarter, compared to first and would expect that to continue, certainly for the next 12 months to 18 months.
Operator:
Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Your line is open.
George Shapiro:
I noticed that operations in the quarter by year-end numbers were up $0.23 by mine, and I had above estimates guide $0.15, Toby. But for the year, you're only raising it by $0.09. So I assume, it means the second half you're expecting somewhat weaker performance in this quarter took some from the second half. And the other quick questions I have is the missile margin guide still requires north of 12% in Q3 and Q4. So just want to comment on that. And on the other side that requires a sharp reduction on the IIS margin in the second half? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So let me start with the overall company level EPS. I mean as I said earlier, we're pleased with the increase of the $0.24, prior to the merger related impacts, right, that were offset by $0.11 of expenses and $0.03 from a higher share count that netted to the $10 and we're extremely pleased with our performance in the quarter. We had several of the business is outperforming our expectations. Some of this is timing as you alluded to, I think timing between Q3 and Q2 and it does give us confidence in the overall guidance in the outlook for the year. As I said at IIS with their strong performance in Q2 and their expected performance in the back half combined with their volume and margin that's where they - the flow-through of that $0.10 to the total year is primarily driven by, in addition to the improvements we saw in corporate, and some of the non-operating items. So overall, we're pleased with it, but timing is really the way to think of it right, that we saw some strong performance in the quarter from a margin point of view, some improvements we expected in the second half primarily Q3 moving into the second quarter. So missile specifically again, we're pleased with the 11.4% margin that they delivered here in Q2, it was ahead of what we were expecting. As you pointed out, you're right, we continue to see their margins increasing and improving in the back half of the year. The combination of some new and anticipated production awards will be ramping up from a total year basis, we expect better productivity and overall missile's margins about in line with 2018 at the midpoint of the range - in the midpoint of the range of 11.5% to 11.9%. So from an IIS point of view, clearly, they've had a outstanding start to the year with their performance, including in Q2. We did raise their guidance by another 20 basis points to the 8.2% to 8.4% of the range. And yes, we do expect the margin in the back half is going to be a little bit lower driven by mix and again the timing of some of the performance improvements they saw accelerated into Q2 versus Q3.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Ronald Epstein:
Can you talk to a bit, how you think about kind of two - how does BBN fit-in, in your view given the combined or it seems like that [indiscernible] how do you guys had? And then two, commercial offset so when you're doing your international work and your offsets all of a sudden you have a much larger portfolio of things that you could offset with? How do you think about that?
Tom Kennedy:
Let me talk about the first thing is, you're right, Ron, yes we between the two companies, we have a powerhouse of technology. One of the areas with some of our technology concentrated is BBN, which is kind of our research on does a significant amount of work with DARPA, and a lot of technology, I would call futuristic technology development has been kind of our leader in artificial intelligence and machine learning for us, and in several other key areas. Right now that system is connected directly into our four businesses and their advanced programs area as a very tight coupling. So we try to do it, even though we're developing advanced technology, we try to tie that back directly to our mission areas, so that we can accelerate the development of that technology into the solutions that we provide for our customers. And that is a model that we are going to take forward into the merger as we move forward, we're going to ensure that we don't break that and moving forward. We have some organizational construct works that we're doing, because United Technology is also has a research group that does work and it's also connected into their businesses. So the end game is to essentially try to drive the synergies with all this technology that we're developing. In a way that we can actually make this kind of technology one plus one equals three, and we're looking at accelerants by combining this technology in these different areas. But the bottom line is, there is a significant amount of opportunity in the technology area, and then the technology is complementary and where we're trying to work that organizational construct, so we make sure we maximize the benefits of that to both companies in the merger.
Toby O'Brien:
And I think Ron, on your second comment and Tom can jump in here and add some color, that's another synergy opportunity around the offsets clearly having more capability to put forward to satisfy what our international customers are looking to do relative to localization and developing indigenous capability is an key area that will be working some planning around, and then post merger figuring out how to take full advantage of the capabilities that United Technologies Aerospace businesses will bring to the table, and give us more avenues to satisfy and fulfill offsets.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open.
Peter Arment:
Toby, if I just circle back on ISS margins, it wasn't clear to me why is it just all related to the Warfighter ramp down that why you're seeing margins come down pretty significantly in the second half. I know you've - that's a very strong performance in the first half, but what exactly are we seeing there? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes, you know, it's two or three things, right? The Warfighter volume reduction is part of it and that is definitely more pronounced in the back half of the year, significantly more pronounced in the back half of the year than it was in the first half. And part of the strength of their margin here in the quarter at the 9.1% was their productivity improvements and they were able to accelerate some from the second half into the second quarter from Q3 to Q2. And then to a lesser degree, they do have some general mix with other programs that have a lower margin and a heavier revenue contribution in the second half. But that all said overall, they are performing well, hitting on all cylinders, we raised their margin again, we're more than confident in their margins going forward. And I know it wasn't a specific part of your question, but I would tell you and we've touched on this at times on past calls, when folks have asked. Based upon the portfolio in IIS and depending upon mix of their business, including as they work to capture more international work at especially around cyber. This is a business that could approach 9% margins, depending upon how things line up. So the team there is doing a great job and we're very pleased with their performance.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Carter Copeland:
Just kind of quick two part are on and just to follow-up on the hypersonics discussion. I wondered from what's increasingly in the public domain on the hypersonics versus counter hypersonics it looks there's a lot more funding and effort on the counter on the hypersonics front and counter hypersonics, and I wondered if that's consistent with what you've seen in your portfolio or if there is a classified dynamic there that makes those a lot more equal in size. And then I know on prior calls, Tom you've emphasized counter hypersonics is a - perhaps the bigger of the two opportunities for you. And I just wondered when you think about the elements of that, whether it's traditional radars and traditional air missile defense, things of that nature, which are really kind of core capabilities of your company today. How the UTC transaction helps in the counter hypersonics realm or if sort of off on that, any color there would be great?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes. So, number one, let me set this straight. I mean, the hypersonics is a big element for the Department of Defense and are pushing that forward. But I can also tell you that they are fairly a very large effort relative to counter hypersonics and there's activities going on there a lot of that is in the classified areas. I can't get into a lot of details, but what I can tell you is the counter hypersonics efforts across every one of our four businesses. IIS, SAS, missiles and even IDS. And then reason is, it requires a solution for the entire fire control chain to be able to go detect the threat and then make your decision on what you're going to do with that threat, and then track that threat, all the way through its flight path and then interdict somehow to destroy that threat. And the elements to go through the counter hypersonics, it just more parts and therefore more parts ones that being more things to develop and integrate, and so that's why it's really a bigger and that's why I use the word that it's a larger market for us relative to our entire business. In any case bottom line is we are heavily participating in both and we believe the future will help us even further. And then relative to UTC, I mean, they're helping us and they will take - will be able to help us once we close relative to their technology especially into high temperature materials into inlets or hypersonic engines in that area, and they will also do have some high-end sensors that we don't have and we don't participate in areas that potentially could help us in that fire control chain.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Robert Stallard:
Tom a quick question for you on the merger. Have you been surprised by the sort of feedback that you've been getting from investors?
Tom Kennedy:
Well, we've - it depends on the - interest on the investors, I've been getting a lot of positives from investors across the board. I think so lot of our investors do see exactly the benefits of the merger moving forward. And I think the area - whole area of technology and being able to combine the - I would call the power - powerhouse companies relative to their technology areas, and bring it to bear on an entire front moving forward has been very, very well taken by our investors, who understand the details of the companies and the technologies that they are developing. So we - most of the stuff we've been hearing is pretty positive.
Robert Stallard:
Go ahead.
Toby O'Brien:
And Rob, would just add in going back to the original announcement and I think we've talked about this. So this wasn't a combination that was rumored, right? So clearly people were not expecting it, we continue to engage with our investors as they have more questions about the deal, and I think what people are, from a financial point of view, starting to really understand the long-term cash flow generation potential for this business. The incremental free cash flow growth we talked about the $18 billion to $20 billion of capital being returned to shareholders in the first three years. We put a number out there of about $8 billion in 2021, which would kind of be the first full year based upon a mid 2020 close. We've also put a little more color around that, that's conservative by plus or minus $1 billion, so I think people are getting their head around it, right. It's got something for everybody, it's not that long-term strategic play underpinned by the complementary technologies, the revenue synergies that, as Tom mentioned in his opening remarks - we believe we're going to be measured in the billions. It's got the synergies that would provide shareholders to benefit that from the near-term and then all the elements, I won't repeat them from a financial perspective around the cash flow generation of the Raytheon Technologies Company.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Shannon, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Your next question is from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Your line is open.
Pete Skibitski:
Tom, could you talk about some of these smaller programs at missiles that you have going on. I hate to get too far into the weeds, but I think they're interesting and kind of emerging - this scenarios for the military. One is just Coyote, do you announced a contract here this quarter for, not huge, but not small either. In this FEAVR radar and this Hawk whole program, could you give us some color on some of those and maybe you can talk about the market size. They just sound pretty interesting.
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, I'll talk about the Coyote first, actually that's a bright - really bright super bright star for missiles, that was an - did an acquisition of a small company back in 2015, and it had a - this UAV on it. And then the reason is we went into the acquisition, I think was about $7 million. Today there is some technology in swarming - UAV swarming technology. And so we were able to take that system and integrated into some of our other solutions that we're doing to co-create, we call it now Coyote system. And then integrated that with one of our radars are kind of call it our KuRFS radars to create a new system called Hauler, Hauler that was just IOC by the United States Army, and the Army is buying these systems for counter-UAS, so this UAS actually goes off in attacks other UAS and kill them and it's been, it's actually, it's very - it's a lower cost systems. So it's a way of killing lower cost the UAS, and it's in - and I think the Army is going off and going to be buying quite a few of those. So it's a very, very great program there. The other I would call a contract that I would like to bring up that in the area of missiles, is they are pursuing a program called Precision Strike Missile and that is a new system for then really a brand new franchise for us moving forward. We're very positive on that system, it's a system that is required by the Army to replace their attack him system and move that up to a longer range, but within the INF treaty, which may end, and on August 2nd, so if that happens, there will be more activity in this area and more upside and potential for the missile company in that arena.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
That's all the time we have. Thank you for joining us this morning, we will look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter conference call in October.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Raytheon second quarter 2019 earnings call. Thank you for joining and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Raytheon First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shanon, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you, Shanon. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We will start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I would like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release, and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I will turn the call over to Tom.
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon delivered strong operating performance in the first quarter. Sales increased 7.4% and our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow were all better than expected. We had backlog of over $41 billion, which is up almost $3 billion versus the same period last year. Our trailing four quarter book-to-bill ratio is strong at 1.13, and our growth strategy continues to be aligned with the needs of our global customers. Overall, I was pleased with our results in the first quarter, including strong performance at IIS and SAS, which more than offset missile's performance, which was below our expectations. Toby will review additional details about the quarter in a few minutes. Given the constantly evolving threat environment, I'd like to take a few minutes to discuss some of the innovative solutions we are developing consistent with Raytheon's long history of pushing the bounds of what is possible. Today, we are at the forefront providing advanced technology solutions for customers the most complex challenges. And we are seeing strong future opportunities in our core capabilities, such as in radars and missiles. And a great accomplishment for the company and our customer for the first time in March, The U.S. Missile-Defense Agency, in partnership with the industry team, launched two Raytheon exoatmospheric kill vehicle in back-to-back tests. One EKV successfully destroyed a complex threat representative intercontinental ballistic missile outside of the Earth's atmosphere, while the other EKV gathering test data in what is now known as a two-shot salvo engagement. This was a critical milestone for the ground-based midcourse defense system, and it also relied on Raytheon's advanced sensing capabilities, such as the Sea-Based X-Band Radar, 52 radar and multispectral targeting system on unmanned aerial vehicles to provide EKV with tracking and targeting data of the ICBM. Next, as we have discussed on prior calls, Raytheon is a leader in providing the next generation of GaN based naval radars. Our air and missile defense radar and our enterprise air surveillance radar for the U.S. Navy and international customers will form the backbone of radar capabilities for U.S. and allied surface fleets of the future. The AMDR provides integrated air and missile defense capabilities with greater range, increased accuracy and higher demonstrated sensitivity, allowing us to counter large and complex rates. EASR is the navy's next-generation radar for aircraft carriers and amphibious warfare ships that provide simultaneous anti-air and anti-surface warfare, electronic protection and air traffic control capabilities. Understanding our customers' need for performance and disputed relevance, we are making considerable progress on these advanced capabilities. During the first quarter, AMDR completed its latest and most complex test and has exceeded all performance requirements. The radar is currently in low rate initial production and on-schedule for delivery to Navy's first modernized DDG 51 Flight III class ship in 2020. And in March, we booked over $400 million for the next award of 3 AMDR LRIP units. A for EASR, in April, the radar was moved to Wallace Island in Virginia to begin its next phase of system level testing. We expect EASR to shift from the engineering and manufacturing development phase to the production phase at the end of 2019. And earlier this week, we received the first of two critical contracts from the missile-defense agency valued at approximately $400 million for 52 radars as part of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia's purchase of the terminal high altitude area defense or THAAD area missile defense system. We continue to see the total Raytheon opportunity on this program to be around $3 billion. In the area missiles, Raytheon is continuing our leadership as a provider of numerous advanced and innovative solutions to our customers. During the quarter, Raytheon and U.S. Army completed a successful preliminary design review for DeepStrike, Raytheon Solution, to meet the Army's precision strike missile, or PrSM requirement. This moves the missile down the development path toward its first flight test planned for later this year. The new missile's range and speed will enable Army combat units to engage targets over vast geographic areas in high threat environments, and will fly farther, faster in fact, more punch than the current missile. And our franchise win at the naval strike missile for the U.S. Navy last year continues to show opportunities for growth. The missile is offered by Raytheon in partnership with Kongsberg. And recently, we entered into an agreement that expands the franchise further by integrating NSM into U.S. Marines' existing force structure to support the national defense strategy and modernization efforts. And in April, we saw further extension of the NSM franchise with an approved international sale to integrate NSM onto rotary wing aircraft. We are also developing both offensive and defensive hypersonic systems, and providing our nation's military with the advanced tools they need to stay ahead of the escalating threat. In March Raytheon was awarded the DARPA contract to further develop the tactical boots glide hypersonic weapons program. This joint DARPA and U.S. Air Force effort includes a critical design review, a key step in building the technology. In addition, we are working on advanced interceptors for missile defense. During the quarter, Raytheon successfully completed more than 1,700 rigorous wind tunnel tests on the newest extended range variant of the combat proven AMRAAM air-to-air missile. Testing is a major step in the missile's qualification for integration with the NASAMS' ground based air defense system. The AMRAAM-ER missile intercept targets at longer distances and higher altitudes, thus, enhancing system performance for our customers worldwide. While we are pleased with the growth missiles has achieved, and we remain confident about the future opportunities, we recognize there is more work to be done to meet our expectations on performance. The fundamentals that missiles remains very strong and we are implementing action plans to improve program execution. In the mean time, as I previously mentioned, we are pleased with the strength in the rest of our portfolio, especially at IIS and SAS, which offset missile's performance. In addition to the strong performance at IIS, earlier this year an IIS team demonstrated a land-based expeditionary version of its joint precision approach and landing system with JPALS for the first time to the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corp officials. The precision landing system is currently used on ships to guide F-35Bs in all types of weather. JPALS has the potential to help any fixed or rotary wing aircraft land in rugged low visibility environments at austere bases worldwide. I would like to highlight one more of our many innovative solutions this one at SAS. Last year, we were selected as one of two companies to complete for the opportunity to provide the mission payload for the next generation overhead for persistent infrared program. Next Gen OPIR is a new missile warning satellite system for the U.S. Air Force aimed at countering emerging global threats. During the first quarter, we were awarded a proposal update. And in April, we successfully completed the payload system design review on-schedule. We are in an era of rapid technological change. And as a result, it is becoming clear that the solutions our customers will need in the future relative to escalating threats will most likely to be complex systems, integrating multiple technologies, including radars, missiles, missile-defense and cybersecurity. This is an area of strength for Raytheon. With our deep portfolio capabilities and leading franchises across all of our segments, we are well-positioned to be a key partner for our customers. The initial development of our advanced capabilities is often through our classified work, which as we've discussed on past calls points next-generation technology development that is integral to the long-term growth of our future franchises and production awards. And our Classified Business was once again strong in the first quarter with Classified bookings up 37% and Classified sales up 22% versus the same period last year. Turning to D.C., we were pleased to see the increase in the base budget and modernization levels in 2020 Department of Defense budget request that was released in March. Raytheon programs fared well in the request with notable increases from weapons, radars and C5ISR programs. The budget request was clearly driven by the priorities of the national defense strategy with the research and development accounts increasing substantially to develop high end capabilities to counter peer threats. And the NDS aligns well with our other innovative solutions that address our customers' most complex challenges. We will continue to work to ensure robust funding for our programs, which are a critical need for customers. In closing, the Raytheon team remains focused on driving strong execution and future growth, backed by workforce of over 67,000 employees and a corporate culture grounded in our company's values. These values, trust, respect, collaboration, innovation and accountability, guide the way we engage with colleagues, customers, investors and other stakeholders. Now let me turn the call over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks, Tom. I have the opening remarks, starting with the first quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. So everyone return to Page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the first quarter with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow better than our expectations. We had bookings in the first quarter, resulting in a strong trailing four quarter book-to-bill ratio of 1.13 and a backlog of over $41 billion. This positions us for continued growth throughout 2019 and beyond. Our sales in the quarter were $6.7 billion, up 7.4% with growth across all of our businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.77, better than our guidance and an increase of 25.9% year-over-year. I'll give a little more color on this in just a moment. We had an operating cash outflow of $411 million in the first quarter, better than the guidance we provided in January. And as expected, operating cash flow was lower than last year's first quarter, primarily due to higher net cash taxes and the timing of payments. During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.8 shares of common stock for $500 million. And I would add that last month, we announced an 8.6% increase in our dividend. This marks the 15th consecutive year of increasing dividends at Raytheon. Turning now to Page 4. Let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the first quarter were $5.4 billion, resulting in backlog at the end of the first quarter of $41.1 billion. This represents an increase of approximately $3 billion or 8% compared to the first quarter 2018. It's worth noting that around 38% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. If you now move to Page 5. For the first quarter of 2019, sales were better than the high end of the guidance we set in January. Sales were especially strong at IIS. Looking now at sales by business, IDS had first quarter net sales of $1.6 billion, up 4% compared with the same period last year. The increase from Q1 2018 was primarily driven by higher sales on various Patriot program and a naval radar program. In the first quarter, IIS had net sales of $1.8 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the 12% increase was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs in both cyber and space. As we've previously discussed, we expect ISS's growth rate to moderate in the back half of the year due to the continued planned ramp down and transition of the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile systems had net sales of $2 billion, up 9% compared with the same period last year. SAS had net sales of $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2019, up 5% compared to last year's first quarter. The increase from Q1 2018 was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs. And at Forcepoint, sales were up 12% in the quarter compared with last year's first quarter. Overall, we're pleased with our total company sales, which grew 7.4% in the quarter. Moving ahead to Page 6. Now, let me spend a few minutes talking about our margins in the quarter. Our operating margin was 16.5% for the total company and 11.8% on a business segment basis, both generally in line with last year's first quarter, and better than our expectations at the company level. IDS margin was lower in the first quarter 2019 as expected, primarily due to lower sales on a large international Patriot program awarded in last year's first quarter. IIS's margin was higher by 310 basis points compared to last year's first quarter, primarily due to a gain of $21 million related to the consolidation as planned of an entity that was previously an equity investment, and from $13 million gain from the sale of excess assets. Excluding these items, the margin at IIS would be about 8.5% better than last year's first quarter, primarily due to higher net program efficiencies. Missile's margin was lower in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, and lower than our expectation. We expected there to be an impact from program mix in the first quarter, but we also saw lower than planned net program efficiencies, which I'll discuss further when I review our outlook by business. From a total company point of view, we remain focused on margin improvement going forward, and continue to see our business segment margins in the 12.1% to 12.3% range for the full-year, consistent with the guidance we laid out in January. We see our margin improvement in the back half of the year driven by favorable program mix and productivity improvements. Turning now to Page 7. First quarter 2019 EPS of $2.77 was up 25.9% from last year's first quarter and was better than our expectations. The year-over-year increase was largely driven by higher sales volume and pension related items. On Page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we have updated the company's financial outlook for 2019. We continue to expect our full-year 2019 net sales to be in the range of $28.6 billion to $29.1 billion, up 6% to 8% from 2018. We still expect our full-year 2019 EPS to be in the range of $11.40 to $11.60. As I discussed earlier, we repurchased 2.8 million shares of common stock for $500 million in the quarter, and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 279 million and 281 million shares for 2019, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program. Operating cash flow in the first quarter was higher than our prior expectations, primarily due to the timing of collections. Given that it is still early in the year and our cash is back half weighted, we continue to see our full-year 2019 operating cash flow outlook to be between 3.9 billion and 4.1 billion. And although not on the Page, it is worth noting that we continue to see our full year 2019 bookings outlook to be between $29.5 billion and $30.5 million. Turning now to Page 9, as you can see, we've included guidance by business. Before I discuss the other businesses, I wanted to address missiles first. At missiles, as I mentioned earlier, we saw lower-than-expected net program efficiencies this quarter. As a result, we have reduced their outlook to reflect first quarter performance and what we now expect for the balance of the year. We now see their margin to be in the 11.5% to 11.9% range. As Tom mentioned earlier, we have an action plan in place to improve their execution. The strong performance we saw at both IIS and SAS in the first quarter and their improved outlook for the remainder of the year offset the performance at missiles. This reflects the strength of our balanced portfolio. We now expect ISS margins of 8% to 8.2%, which is up 20 basis points over the prior outlook we provided in January. And we've updated SAS margins to 13.2% to 13.4%, an increase of 30 basis points from our prior outlook. As a result, it's important to note that for the full year 2019, we continue to see our business segment margins in the 12.1% to 12.3% range for the full-year, consistent with the guidance we laid out in January. We are committed to improving margin across all of our businesses. And this focused effort is now starting to come through in the margin performance at our ISS and SAS businesses. On Page 10, we provided you with our outlook for the second quarter of 2019. As we mentioned on our last call, we still expect the cadence for the balance of 2019 to play out similar to 2018. We see sales, EPS and operating cash flow ramping-up sequentially in the second half of the year. I want to point out that we expect second quarter sales to be in a range of approximately $6.95 billion to $7.1 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $2.50 to $2.55. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $500 million to $700 million. Before concluding, I'd like to spend a minute on our capital deployment strategy. As we said on the call in January, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. We remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth, obtain a sustainable and competitive dividend, reducing our share count, making targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs and making discretionary contributions to the pension. In summary, if you stand back and look at the quarter, we had strong performance, which provides a solid foundation for the balance of 2019. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all above our expectations. And we remain well positioned for continued growth. With that, Tom and I will now open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you [Operator Instructions]. The first question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies and Company. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
On missiles, how do we think about the franchise programs? Tom, you mentioned in your prepared remarks and how they develop longer-term as growth drivers and maybe just the return on sales of those assets. And then as a follow-up, you both mentioned actions have been placed for MS. Can you maybe describe that a little bit more? Thank you.
Tom Kennedy:
Let me start-off with the franchises. I think what’s unique about missiles is the fact that they have a strong -- first of all, a very strong stable of existing franchises that have gone to a syndicated refresh here over the last five years. In other words, new technology being inserted into them, essentially give them legs for another two decades. And the other one is that the success we've had in extending those franchises in international marketplace. And what's special now is that we have an opportunity for some, brining some new franchises on-board. We just brought one on-board NSM. I mentioned, how just within a matter of six months, we've extended that franchise into two other mission areas, so essentially doing three mission areas right off the bat. The other items are the ones where we're in a competition for one is the PrSM, which is a precision strike missile for the United States Army. And that program there it's just had very successful test that had CDR I mentioned and it just had a very successful motor test. So we're very keen that that we're in a very good position to potentially win that new franchise. And that will replace all of the Army's that comes out in the field today and give us the Army number one in a great significant capability, but also a brand new franchise for Raytheon. And we're also working on the next generation nuclear weapon for the LRSO program that is in competition that has down select out in the 2022 period. And that’s also the next generation weapon for the United States Air Force, and with about over a thousand weapons that will be procured over a period of time. So I feel very strongly about, number one, we call it the competitiveness of our existing franchises and our ability to extend them over a couple decades and then also provide them international legs and the new opportunities we have at missile. So bottom line is missiles has a lot of upside in terms of growth and we're supporting that. In fact the action plan that we're taking at missiles, this is the -- for us, so we have a new leader that has come on board that’s Wes Kramer. Wes was President of IDS, did a great job for us at IDS. He has also been at missiles support. He ran their largest business area, which was a standard missile business. So he knows the business. He knows the levers to pull to drive I think both continued growth and also margin expansion there. And we know we've been putting in some of the very detailed action plans to go drive margin expansion in the business. We're very certain for the margin range we have for this year's set, but we're also very positive on growing margins incrementally in '20 and then '21, and that sets our main focus at missiles.
Toby O'Brien:
And Sheila, I'll just add a little bit on the details of the things that we're doing out there. So there's already been some changes that have been made. There were some modifications to the word structure. Some product lines were consolidated, which obviously reduces management costs. There were some other leadership changes made on the staff. The team out there continues to review the cost structure, looking for opportunities to get benefit of the leverage that we have given the growth we've seen. We're reviewing the factory operations for incremental efficiencies and Wes, as Tom mentioned, will leverage his prior experiences at missiles and will be clearly focused on improving execution. And there'll be some other things we make, other changes we make along the way. But bottom line, the team is very focused on growing the business, improving program execution and as Tom mentioned, expanding margins.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jon Raviv with Citi. Your line is open.
Jon Raviv:
Tom, you had mentioned an era of rapid technological change. And it's maybe for both of you. Can you talk about the earnings algorithm in that era where we're seeing obviously this trade-off between growth in margin, which should maybe reverse in a couple years? And then also you mentioned that customer in that era want more integrated solutions. So how do they balance that desire for integration with them wanting more open architectures and maintaining competition? Perhaps in that answer you can also address the LTAM's competition. Thank you.
Tom Kennedy:
Well, first of all, we are having an explosion in technology. I mean essentially people talk about the fact that there's an exponential change in technology that is occurring now with things like machine learning, nanotechnology, quantum computing coming onboard out of the manufacturing. And we're heavily involved in all of those areas. I think our customer realizes that they need to take advantage of those new technologies to be able to generate the next generation of capability to put the United States in a premier position from a defense perspective. And so we're seeing a lot of activity in R&D on the government side to bring those new technologies to fruition. And what we're doing at Raytheon, our strategy is to take those technologies and again upgrade our existing franchises, whether they be radars or missiles, ground stations, ground systems and then also generate the next generation ones. And so we're playing both extending our existing franchises and then also working to take these new technologies to win new franchises. So we're -- the fact that we're all over that and the prime example, and you brought it up is the U.S. Army's Lower Tier Air Missile Defense Sensor, we call it LTAM. We are in a competition on that and we'll be proceeding here in May to something called the U.S. Army sense-off. What we're doing there is we're taking brand new technology and then start to coming up with the new 360 degree active electronically scanned array radar using our high-end GaN technology that we produced here at the Raytheon company. We expect the sense of this taking place in May and June of this year. And at some point, we believe the Army will complete their analysis. There is an RFP that's out there. So sometime late '19 early 2020, we expect to down select there.
Toby O'Brien:
Jon, let me maybe just add a little bit on the part of the question related to the earnings algorithm or exactly how you put that, just a couple things to remember right. So we've talked before a lot last year about the mix we're seeing, the change in the mix, driven by the National Defense Strategy and obviously the changing technology plays into that as well. And just as a reminder, the segment margin that we guided to this year, it has about 20 basis points of margin headwind that we see because of that mix and we're offsetting that in a little bit more with about 40 basis points of productivity. We're clearly in an era or a time when we are winning many of these new developing classified programs. And as Tom said, we see them as future franchises that ultimately transition and lead to production over time. And as I mentioned, near term margin pressure but it should be tailwinds to margin in the future. These awards strengthen our portfolio right. We're all about franchises. And the more franchise that we can get, help and we expand those internationally at a point in time as well. So while we've seen some puts and takes as a result of this, especially in our 2019 guidance by business, we continue to see margin expansion going forward. And again, don't forget about our international content. About 30% of our business is international. It's on the higher end of our margin scale that we have to have the benefit of working to leverage when looking at the earnings equation also.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Harnett with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Doug Harnett:
I’d like to go back to missiles, because I just want to understand what's been the evolution here. We've really seen margin guidance reduced for four quarters in a row now essentially. I understand that some of last year that was attributed to a mix shift to more development. But now when you look at Q1, we actually see the backlog drop by more than $1 billion in missiles, and you made a leadership change. Can you talk about how you've looked at this unit over the last three to four quarters? And what you've seen is the issues there and when did you come to the decision that there had to be some significant changes.
Tom Kennedy:
Let me start off and then Toby will follow. The first thing is in terms of the leadership change the prior leader, prior president, Taylor did informed the company that he was plans to retire. So that president change was based on that retirement request. And so we were able to at the time bring on a very strong player that's Wes Kremer, and I'd say he's a strong player, because right now he is running the IDS business and he's doing quite well. And it's a similar type of business to missile. They do have in strong franchises there, lot of production, and also a lot of growth opportunity at IDS. And so we're taking that to the missile company, applying some of the techniques that Wes put in place and we have in place and we have in place at IDS at the missile company. But I think in the end game, first, it was originally as a initially relative to mix. We were winning and have one quite a few contracts in missiles and in development area and essentially it’s the R&D area for the government, which put pressure on us from a mix perspective. The other issue we were seeing is that we do have quite a bit of production programs going on here. And we weren't seeing as much pick-up on the production programs that we have seen in the past. And this started about probably about three quarters ago. And so we are putting much emphasis on essentially on the leaning out the factory, really working on our supply-chain and really driving productivity across all the production programs. The mix is a mix. But what we can do is we can drive essentially significant improvement in the factories and in our supply chain to drive margin expansion on that part. And I'll let Toby to answer some of this too.
Toby O'Brien:
So Dough, just to your questions about what’s happened overtime with the guidance, a lot of that last year was around the mix. And we did get hit with a lot more of the lower margin development classified work. We believe the guidance for this year going back to what we provided in January properly size that relative to missiles, the mix effect. We still feel that's the case today. The change that you're seeing here in the quarter is as we said around performance and execution. There were a couple of program adjustments in the quarter at missiles. We did have one that was about $15 million. But when you step back from it, they are growing the effects of mix, I think are well understood, we think that's right. And it was all performance related. So as I said before, we took that into account, relook at the year and made the adjustments. I think Tom said in his opening remarks the fundamentals there remain strong and we believe that. Our comment to your comment about the backlog. So I think it's important, you can't take one quarter and think of that as trend, either good or bad. I'd take you back to the fact that missiles has been leading growth in the company going back the last four or so years. As a reminder, last year they had a book-to-bill of 1.09, it was 1.26 in 2017. The book-to-bill was low in the quarter, which is what drove the backlog down. It's all timing related. I would tell you, we expect north of $9 billion of bookings at missiles this year, a book-to-bill of 1.05 or greater. Again, I think we've talked about it before. We expect two multiyear production awards in the back half of this year out at missiles that is part of what is going drive that. So I wouldn't read anything into the change in the backlog in the quarter, other than just timing related to some large bookings.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Robert Stallard:
Just on the missile theme, unfortunately. If you sort out the performance issues, what sort of benefit could you have to the operating margin in this business going forward? So ignoring mix just the productivity.
Tom Kennedy:
So Rob, I think the way to think of it, and I'll maybe start with this year and move forward for you here. So first of all, again, as Tom said, we believe we sized it. We've adjusted their range downwards, it's 11.7% at the midpoint, which is in line with where they ended last year. And we think we've seen -- see that appropriately. We would expect the cadence of margin to improve quarter-to-quarter throughout this year with a little bit of a bias towards the second half. And then when you think about 2020 and beyond, if I were to take it back to the 2016 timeframe, 2017 even 2015. Missiles was generating margins in the 13% range before we started to see this higher influx of the development in the classified work, and I believe that's still attainable, albeit out in time, because it's going to take time, both for these development programs to transition into production and to implement some of the actions that we talked about and refocus on the program execution. So we're not going to peg a number, but we would say improvements, incremental improvements in 2020 and beyond, driven by both the combination as that mix shifts a little bit more favorably, the production, the two big multiyear awards get into a strong production cadence out in the future and we execute better. It's going to be a combination of all that. But clearly, the business has demonstrated in the past, especially when the mix is different how they can perform.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Your line is open.
George Shapiro:
You wound up beating the high-end of your EPS guidance by $0.25. You beat the high-end of your sales guidance by $150 million. I mean, a lot of this is due to IIS. But you didn't raise the guidance or the sales guidance. And usually, when you beat it by this much, you raise it by something. So is it all IIS where Warfighter sales didn't come down this quarter, aren’t expected to come down? And then also, was there any benefit to IIS sales from the consolidation that you did in the quarter? And any other color you might provide. Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
I'll address the couple of IIS things, and then I'll tell you how we're thinking about the year from a company level. So the Warfighter sales came down in the quarter like we expected, but year-over-year we're looking at about $0.5 billion reduction. Most of that's in the back half of the year. So there is there is an imbalance first half, second half relative to how Warfighter is going to impact the revenue cadence at IIS. I would tell you even with that decline the rest of the IIS business is strong. You saw some of that in the first quarter in the cyber and space areas. And ex-Warfighter IIS is growing around 10% for the year. The consolidation of the entity that you referred that you asked about did have about $38 million impact in the quarter on revenue. So that's IIS. At a total company level, as we said, we're pleased with the first quarter results. They did exceed our expectations at the company level. Some of the higher sales volume we saw was timing related, driven by timing. And it clearly gives us confidence in our outlook of our 6% to 8% growth for the year. We mentioned the favorable performance at IIS and SAS, and we improved their total-year guidance. But those improvements were offset by the decrease in the missiles margin for the quarter that we flowed through to the year. So in total, as we said, the range stayed the same for segment margins, 12.1 to 12.3. Bringing it down to EPS, we were $0.35 higher than the high-end of our guidance range as you mentioned. Roughly half of that driven by the timing of sales and margins within the year, the other half driven by the timing of some corporate and non-operational items within the year that would now be expected to have a impact, a negative impact in the back half. So the change in margin guidance at the two businesses that improved IIS and SAS that flowed through and offset missiles. It's early in the year. We continue to be focused on growing the top line and improving margins. And then I'd just add for completeness. I think I mentioned in my opening remarks. We were pleased with the cash performance for the quarter, about $140 million better than the high-end of our guidance. It was timing related. It's early. The $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion that we have out there for the year would be on top of the, or is on top of the record performance we saw last year. Bottom line, we will keep an eye on all this, but we're confident in the outlook for the year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Strauss, Barclays. Your line is open.
David Strauss:
Last one on missiles and then also one other question. Toby, I think you said you highlighted, maybe a $15 million negative to EAC. What were the total negative EACs in missiles in the quarter? And then on cash deployment, I think the $500 million share repo number, that’s a biggest I've seen on a quarterly basis that you guys done. How you're thinking about share repo from here? And then also the potential to potentially pull forward some of the future pension contribution needs into this year? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So on missiles, just to put in perspective, the net EAC adjustments in the quarter were $4 million, and they were above $69 million -- a little over $60 million of negatives. And again, if you just kind of think of the 9.5% margin. If the performance had been more, the EAC adjustments had been more aligned with our expectation, we would've been in a plus or minus 11% margin range for the quarter. Again, the issues we're dealing with here in missiles in the quarter are related to their performance. On the share repo, we continue to see value in our shares. We are committed to the share repurchase program. The outlook for the year, similar from a dollar value point you give or take to next year -- to last year about $1.3 billion and the 2 plus percent reduction. And we will continue to evaluate that. As far as the pension goes, we will, per our normal practice, we're looking at that all the time. But we'll have a clearer view of that as we get towards the back half of the year. We obviously want to see what's going on from an overall cash generation, allocation of capital and certainly what's happening in the market and how the plans are performing. Last year, just as a reminder, the reason we did something a little bit earlier was we got the benefit with the change in the tax laws to make the deduction at the prior tax rate of the 35%. So we were a little bit ahead of when we would normally look at discretionary contributions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Your line is open.
Cai von Rumohr:
So your guidance for the second quarter, 250 to 255 in earnings, looks like we get a fair amount of margin compression given your revenue guide. Could you walk us through maybe some of the puts and takes on margins, particularly missiles? Do we have some more pain to get things under control in the second quarter? And is that the reason for what looks like a light margin guide? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So typically for the company, our segment margins do ramp up in the second half. And obviously, therefore, start a bit lower in first half. We did see some Q1 margins, about 50 basis points higher than our expectations, so that we were ahead of our guidance, ahead of our expectations on the segment margins in Q1. A decent portion of this improvement was driven by the timing of some profit previously expected in Q2, primarily at both IIS and SAS and therefore, taking that all into account does result in a lower margin in Q2. If I look at the businesses, specifically for Q2, we do see lower IDS and IIS margins compared to Q1. And also just as a bit of a reminder, Forcepoint traditionally or typically does have a loss in both Q1 and Q2 due to the seasonality of their business. So although the Q2 margin expectations, they are a little bit lower, we do feel good about our guidance for the total year of the 12.1 to 12.3. And I can tell you we have had years in the past where the cadence was similar. And part of that is driven, as I mentioned, by Forcepoint given that they are in a loss for the first half of the year and a profit in the back half as their volume increases.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Robert Spingarn:
So Tom, I wanted to go to hypersonics and think about Raytheon's positioning in offensive hypersonics. So you talked about the TBG, and I think you want something -- I'll hop a few years. But it seems like one of your competitors has been winning a lot of the hypersonic work lately. Where do you stand and what are the opportunities, can you catch up or is this the wrong way to think about it?
Tom Kennedy:
Let me start off with what we are doing right now. So on the offensive, and I think I mentioned on our prior call that the defensive hypersonics is actually a bigger market than the offensive. But on the offensive, we are heavily involved in multiple programs. One of them is the air breathing hypersonics weapons program, and that's with the DARPA program. And then we are working on that program. We are also on a hypersonic boost glide weapons program, one of them is the tactical boost glide program that I mentioned on my -- during my discussion upfront. So that's essentially the two big programs that we are engaged in from a hypersonic perspective on the offensive side. We are also working several other arrangements in hypersonic area that I can't really get into on the phone here. But we feel we're in a very strong position relative to where we want to be on offensive hypersonics. On defensive side, we are heavily involved in that several activities involved in that, but it also moves on beyond just the missile part also moves into the sensor part, both on land and in space. So the overall area of hypersonics is a big opportunity for Raytheon where we believe we're engaged in the right elements of that and we're proceeding forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Seth Seifman:
I wanted to ask briefly another question about IIS, where excluding any Warfighter headwind as the performance has been consistently good for several quarters now both sales and margins. I mean, if we look just specifically at the margin and we exclude the one timers from the quarter. It's been consistently mid-80s for the past three quarters now? I mean is this mid-8 business going forward, and if not why not? And you're obviously growing nicely, the end markets are growing and it seems like you're taking some share to. How do you think about the growth potential in the out years?
Toby O'Brien:
Let me jump in there and obviously Tom can add any color if he wants and hopefully I get it all you broke up a little bit on the question, but I'll go back to Q1 performance right and kind of, to your question about the margins. If we exclude the couple items that we talked about in the comments in the release around the consolidation of the entity that we planned on, in the material sales, right. IIS would have about 8.5% margin in the quarter and there see a real strong execution. That was largely driven by their net program efficiencies compared to where they perhaps perform to the last year in their prior guidance. So, we expect them to continue to perform at a strong level going forward I think I have said before this business can certainly get a north of 8% on a consistent basis from a margin point of view. I think they have got the execution side of it down really well based upon how they performed last year and certainly into the first quarter this year. I think as everybody knows they are the one business right that from their business model has the structure that drives the margins to be a little suppress right to have the least amount of fixed price and the least amount of international work, but I know Dave and the team are working hard to improve that especially in the area of cyber and various international opportunities. So I expect they are going to continue to grow even with the headwinds of Warfighter that they will be through this year between cyber and space and international. And I would expect that over time they will continue to incrementally improve the margins and that they clearly have the ability to get this business to operate in the very high single-digit margins, albeit over time especially as that mix transitions and becomes a little bit more international biased.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Your line is open.
Pete Skibitski:
One more question on missiles but more from a revenue standpoint. Tom, I know you guys kind of organized each of your segment by product area and I'm wondering which of the product areas within MS is going to grow the fastest this year to get it to your guidance? And just how dependent is the guidance on signing the two multi-year on the SM this year?
Tom Kennedy:
So, I think a big player this year for missiles and actually for their segment that has the two multi-year in it, the SM-3, Block 1B multi-year and the SM-6 multi-year. And those are combined that's about four over little bit over $4 billion booking. And so the ramping up the latter half of this year and obviously into 2020 and beyond. I think they're going to get significant because they are multi-year -- its five-year multi-year will give them significant base improvements and their factories moving forward. We are seeing across all elements all the business areas within missiles significant growth and also significant international demand signals. So I think it's maybe Toby, give you the exact numbers here but we are very positive on the growth side of missiles and so again we want to leverage the fact that we are growing not just on the development programs but now with these two multi-years on the production programs; when we want to leverage that to drive productivity and efficiency improvements to essentially drive the inter-margin expansion going in the right direction also.
Toby O'Brien:
The only thing I would add, Pete. As Tom, hit it right on. I mean they have got such a broad portfolio there isn't a single program or program area that were dependent upon here in the near term certainly this year and into the future to drive the growth that's coming from some of the classified work, some of our air-to-air business, the missile defense business that SM-3, participates in. So I think that's a key feature they have got the largest amount of franchises in the company. And while they are all at various stages they are all contributing or most all are contributing to the growth this year.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Shannon, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Our last question is from Carter Copeland with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Carter Copeland:
I wondered you called out in missiles in the K, a charge on a next-gen precision strike weapon. And then in your earlier remarks you mentioned a couple of charges. Can you tell us a bit if that's the same program if we added another program, if we're talking about an expansion of loss making or zero margin work there. And then just in general with respect to the mix at missiles with respect to the 2019 plan versus 2018? How much more of the cost type of work do you have as a percentage this year than say you'd had last year? Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
Let me start with the last one first. At missiles in particular the cost type mix and directionally is, think of it as maybe five to seven points -- 500 to 700 basis points higher or more biased toward cost type versus fixed price on a year-over-year basis. On your first question, I mentioned, I figured who asked the question earlier but when I was talking about the performance and I mentioned in the quarter we had a one adjustment that was about $15 million. It is not the same program that you referenced from the K, this was an international test range upgrade program that we saw some growth driven by design related issues in the early phases and we are now moving into the production in the integration phase. So, it's not the same program that was driving the negative adjustments that I referred to here in Q1.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
That's all the time we have today. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter conference call in July.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Raytheon fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. My name is Sonia and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you Sonia. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we will reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We will start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I would like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I will turn the call over to Tom.
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you Kelsey. Good morning everyone. Raytheon had a very successful year in 2018 and our growth strategy continued to deliver results for our shareholders and customers. There were many highlights in 2018 for Raytheon. Let me start by touching on some of our financial results. We continue to see strong global demand for our innovative solutions, demonstrated by our book-to-bill ratio of almost 1.2 for the full-year. And for the third time, in 2018 we achieved record backlog which rose to $42.4 billion at the end of the year. This drove an increase in backlog of more than $4 billion year-over-year and positions us for a strong 2019. Sales were up 8.5% in the fourth quarter and 6.7% for the full-year. And in 2018, we accelerated our sales growth for the fourth time since 2015. This resulted in a new company record for annual sales of $27 billion. Cash flow was better than we expected and we achieved a new company record for operating cash flow for the full-year. Toby will review additional details about the fourth quarter and our 2019 guidance in a few minutes. Given the success we saw in 2018, I wanted to take a few minutes to share some of the Raytheon's key milestones across our company during the year. First, I would like to highlight the strength of our classified business. In 2018, we had record classified bookings that were up over 45% year-over-year. Classified bookings for the full-year were almost $7 billion and we saw strong classified bookings across the businesses including $2.6 billion at IIS, $2.4 billion at SAS and $1.6 billion at missiles. Raytheon also had record classified sales which grew 19% versus 2017 and represented 19% of company sales. Classified bookings and sales exceeded our plans for the year. Our strength in classified is driven in large part by the need of our domestic customers to address advanced threats as outlined in the National Defense Strategy. As a reminder, classified business is crucial for Raytheon's growth and success. It funds next-generation technology development that is integral to the long-term growth of our future franchises and production awards. Second, we saw strong growth at many of our businesses in 2018, including at our IIS business which grew 9%. Although we expect to see the Warfighter FOCUS program ramp down in 2019, we continue to see meaningful expansion in IIS' core markets including cyber and space. IIS' innovative solutions are well-aligned with our customers' current mission needs and long-term strategy. We saw this in 2018 with cyber and space programs at IIS achieving double digit growth. Next, I wanted to highlight the progress we made in 2018 on one of our existing franchises, our advanced Patriot Air and Missile Defense system. In December, we were awarded nearly $700 million for Sweden Patriot. And during 2018, we booked four major production awards for our Patriot system totaling almost $4 billion in bookings. Three of the four major Patriot awards were from new countries, Romania, Poland and Sweden. And we now have 16 nations that depend on Patriot to protect their citizens and armed forces. All of these countries pull money to fund sustainment, support and new development of Patriot which keeps our system ready for the evolving threat for years to come. And with our current Patriot backlog, we have production visibility until at least 2023. In terms of future Patriot awards, we still expect our next booking of $500 million for Romania Patriot in 2019 with additional follow-on awards to the complete the program in 2020 and 2021. We continue to see the total Raytheon Romania Patriot opportunity to be around $2 billion. For our Poland Patriot opportunity, our Phase 2 booking is still expected in 2020 with the total Raytheon Poland Patriot opportunity to be around $5 billion. There is also the potential for additional Patriot production awards including the possibility of adding yet another new European country to the Patriot partnership. Another 2018 highlight was the new franchises Raytheon won across our businesses. At missiles, in addition to the new classified programs we also won a new missile franchise, the Naval Strike Missile for the U.S. Navy. The missile was offered by Raytheon in partnership with Kongsberg. And because it's already a proven operational system, NSM saves the U.S. billions of dollars in developmental costs. Our goal with NSM is to replace the existing domestic and international inventory of harpoon and other international surface-to-surface missiles making this another multibillion franchise opportunity for the company. New franchises we won at SAS during the year include a classified work as well as our selection to develop and deliver the next generation Distributed Aperture System or DAS for the F-35. Our DAS system enhances capability and reliability versus to the prior system. And we have been developing this technology over the past few years which will be applicable to other aircraft including the rotorcraft market. We look forward to some of our new franchises that we have won over the last few years transitioning from the development to full rate production. These franchises include AMDR, EASR, 3DELRR, Next Generation Jammer, FAB-T and StormBreaker. During 2018 we also achieved testing milestones on some of our programs such as the next-generation Standard Missile-Three Block IIA. This interceptor defeats missile threats outside the earth's atmosphere and is being developed and produced in cooperation with Japan. A test in December marked three significant achievements for the SM3 Block IIA missile including intercept from a land-based launch, intercept of an intermediate-range ballistic missile target and intercept using tracking data from remote sensors. Additionally, this test supports a critical initial production acquisition milestone. Our SM3 missiles are the only ballistic missile interceptors that can be launched both at sea and on land and have achieved over 30 intercepts in space. And we continue to see opportunities across our standard missile family of products including the potential for multiyear awards for SM3 Block 1B and SM6 which will provide production visibility until at least 2026. Many of our innovative solutions including the SM3 Block 2A interceptor were noted as critical products outlined in the Missile Defense Review which was released earlier this month. We are encouraged by the MDR and how closely our customers' needs in these critical areas align with the capabilities we are developing including interceptors, space-based sensors, high-energy lasers, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics. As we start 2019, we feel very optimistic about the future and our ability to continue to grow, both domestically and internationally. It's worth noting that we started the government fiscal year 2019 with the Department of Defense budget already in place avoiding a continuing resolution for the first time in a decade. This timely bill passage is providing valuable stability and predictability which is beneficial for both our customers and our shareholders. In closing, our very successful 2018 would not have been possible without the strong commitment and performance of our 67,000 employees around the world. I want to thank them for all they did for our customers, company and shareholders during the year. We look forward to 2019 being another successful year for Raytheon and it has certainly started on the right note. Earlier this month, Fortune magazine ranked Raytheon first for innovation within the aerospace and defense sector on their Most Admired companies list. That's great recognition on the investments we have made and the talent we have to drive our future success. We are clearly ready to take this great company to new heights in the year ahead and beyond. Now let me turn the call over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Okay. Thanks Tom. I have a few opening remarks starting with the fourth quarter and full-year results. Then I will discuss our outlook for 2019. After that, we will open up the call for questions. During my remarks, I will be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning which are posted on our website. Would everyone please move to page three. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in both the fourth quarter and the full-year. Bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all met or exceeded our expectations. We had strong bookings in the fourth quarter at $8.4 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.15. And for the year, we had record bookings of $32.2 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.19. This sets the stage for continued growth in 2019 which I will discuss in more detail in just a few minutes. Sales were $7.4 billion in the quarter, up 8.5% from the same period last year. We saw strong growth across all of our businesses. For the year, sales were up 6.7% reaching a new company record of $27.1 billion. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.93 for the quarter and $10.15 for the full-year. I will give a little more color on EPS in a few minutes. We also generated strong operating cash flow of $2.4 billion for the quarter and $3.4 billion for the full-year. It's worth noting that we exceeded our operating cash flow guidance by approximately $600 million at the midpoint and achieved a new company record for operating cash flow. The increase was driven by operations and improved working capital. And as a reminder, we made a $1.25 billion pretax discretionary pension contribution in the third quarter of 2018. Additionally, during the quarter the company repurchased approximately 2.3 million shares of common stock for $400 million bringing the full-year 2018 repurchases to 6.7 million shares for about $1.3 billion. We reduced our share count in 2018 and we continue to see value in our share price. The company ended the year with a solid balance sheet and net debt of approximately $1.4 billion which provides us financial flexibility for the future. Turning now to page four. Let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full-year results. As I mentioned earlier, we had strong bookings of $8.4 billion in the quarter and $32.2 billion for the full-year resulting in a record backlog of $42.4 billion. This is an increase to backlog of $4.2 billion over year-end 2017 and provides us with a strong foundation for 2019. It's worth noting that both IDS and SAS had strong bookings performance for the full-year 2018, up 76% and 33% respectively over the prior year. And all of our businesses had a book-to-bill ratio over one in 2018. International orders represented 31% of our total company bookings for both the quarter and the full-year. At the end of 2018, approximately 40% of our total backlog was international. Turning now to page five. We had fourth quarter sales of $7.4 billion, an increase of 8.5% compared with the fourth quarter of 2017 and in line with our expectations. International sales continued to be strong representing 30% of our total sales for both the fourth quarter and full-year of 2018. So looking at the businesses. IDS had net sales of $1.7 billion in the quarter, up 8% from the same period last year primarily due to higher net sales on two international Patriot programs awarded in 2018. IIS had net sales of $1.7 billion in Q4. The 9% increase compared with Q4 2017 was primarily due to higher net sales on cyber and space classified programs and on the DOMino cyber program. Net sales at missile systems in the fourth quarter were $2.3 billion, up 6% compared with the same period last year. The increase was primarily driven by higher net sales on classified programs. In the fourth quarter 2018, SAS had net sales of $1.9 billion. The 13% increase from the fourth quarter 2017 was primarily driven by higher net sales on classified programs. And at Forcepoint, we saw 10% sales growth in the quarter. For the full-year, total company sales were $27.1 billion, up 6.7% over full-year 2017. Moving ahead to page six. Our operating margin in the quarter was 16.5% for the total company and 12% on a business segment basis and lower than last year's fourth quarter primarily due to mix. Overall, the company continues to perform well. Turning to page seven. We had solid operating margin performance for the year. Our operating margin was 16.8% for the total company and 12% on a business segment basis. On page eight, you will see both the fourth quarter and full-year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2018, our EPS was $2.93 and for the full-year was $10.15. Both the quarter and full-year were higher than the comparable periods in 2017, primarily driven by operational improvements from higher sales volume and lower taxes that were primarily associated with tax reform. Overall, we had strong operating performance for both the quarter and full-year. Now looking at our 2019 guidance on page nine. We see sales in the range of between $28.6 billion and $29.1 billion, up 6% to 8% from 2018 which is consistent with our initial outlook that we provided in October. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international businesses. As for pension, we see the 2019 FAS/CAS operating adjustment at approximately $1.5 billion of income and the retirement benefits non-service expense and non-operating at $726 million. We expect net interest expense to be between $153 million and $158 million, in line with 2018. We see our average diluted shares outstanding to be between 279 million and 281 million on a full-year basis, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program. We expect our effective tax rate to be between 17% and 17.5%. Our estimated tax rate in 2019 is higher than 2018 primarily due to the increase in pretax income and the absence of benefits recorded in 2018 for the discretionary pension contribution and certain tax planning initiatives. In 2019, we see our EPS to be in the range of $11.40 to $11.60, up year-over-year. Our operating cash flow from continuing operations for 2019 is expected to be between $3.9 billion and $4.1 billion. I will discuss operating cash flow more in a few minutes. Before moving on to page 10, I would like to mention that we expect our 2019 bookings to be between $29.5 billion and 30.5 billion, driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. And we expect stronger bookings in the second half of the year, similar to prior years. So if you move to page 10, here we have provided our initial 2019 guidance by business. We expect to see growth in all our businesses in 2019. At the midpoint of the sales range, we expect IIS sales in 2019 to be up slightly over 2018. As we have discussed before, this is driven by the planned ramp down on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Excluding Warfighter FOCUS, we expect IIS to grow in the high single digit range, driven by mission support and the DOMino program as well as classified programs primarily in cyber and space. With respect to segment margins, we expect 2019 margins to continue to be solid in the 12.1% to 12.3% range. This is up about 20 basis points over 2018 at the midpoint. At IDS, we see margins in the 16% to 16.2% range. And as we have discussed previously, this is driven by a change in program mix as we ramp up on some recently awarded programs. We traditionally see lower margins in the early phases of programs until we retire certain risks. We also expect lower volume year-over-year on some higher margin production programs that are nearing completion. We expect IIS margins of 7.8% to 8%, in line with 2018. We see missiles margins in the 12.1% to 12.3% range, up 50 basis points at the midpoint versus 2018. SAS margins are expected to be in the 12.9% to 13.1% range, in line with 2018. At Forcepoint, we expect margins to be in the 3% to 5% range. For 2019, at a total company level, our margins are expected to be in the 16.5% to 16.7% range. If you now turn to page 11, we provided you with our outlook for the first quarter of 2019. Please note, the first quarter of 2019 has one last work day than the first quarter 2018 and this equates to about $100 million in sales overall. We expect the cadence for the balance of 2019 to play out similar to 2018 with sales, EPS and operating cash flow ramping up in the second half of the year, as usual. Turning to page 12. We have provided you with an updated view of how we see our operating cash flow outlook over the next few years. We are pleased with our strong cash flow going forward which is better than our prior expectations. As I mentioned earlier, in 2018 we had record operating cash flow that was $600 million better than our prior guidance at the midpoint driven by operations and working capital improvements. As a reminder, we made a $1.25 billion pretax discretionary pension contribution in the third quarter of 2018. As we sit here today, no discretionary pension contributions are contemplated in our 2019 guidance. For 2019, we brought our operating cash flow guidance up to a range of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion. Also it's important to point out that we expect to pay approximately $900 million more in cash taxes in 2019 which is $200 million higher than our prior outlook. Also on page 12, we provided operating cash flow guidance for 2020 of around $4.6 billion. And on page 13, as we have done in the past, we have provided a summary of the financial impact from pensions in 2018 as well as the projected impact for the next five years, holding all assumptions constant. You will note that this year we have provided you with two additional years of pension outlook to help you with your model. As I mentioned earlier, we see the 2019 FAS/CAS operating adjustment at approximately $1.5 billion of income and the retirement benefits non-service expense and non-operating at $726 million which reflects our investment returns in 2018 of minus 4% on our U.S. pension assets, the December 31 discount rate of 4.3% and a long-term return on asset assumption of 7.5%. Before concluding, I wanted to touch on our capital deployment strategy. As I just mentioned, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. We remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth, paying a sustainable and competitive dividend, reducing our share count, making targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs and making discretionary contributions to the pension from time to time. Let me conclude by saying that 2018 was a very successful year for Raytheon where we once again delivered strong financial results. We set many new company records in 2018, including record operating cash flow, backlog and bookings and both sales and bookings in the classified and international areas. We have a solid balance sheet which gives us flexibility and options to continue to drive shareholder value and a strong outlook for cash. We are well positioned to grow in 2019 and beyond. So with that, we will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question will come from Joseph DeNardi of Stifel. Your line is now open.
Joseph DeNardi:
Yes. Thanks very much. I am wondering if you could just speak kind of longer-term to the demand signals that you are seeing just broadly for missile defense in the Middle East, Asia and maybe how that's evolved over the past 12 months, just given kind of changes in the threat environment? Thank you.
Tom Kennedy:
Yes. Good to hear from you, Joe. And I will cover that. I think two elements, initially I will talk about missile defense in the Middle East. We still see strong demand signals from multiple countries. The major concern there is Iran. And so we are seeing continued demand. We saw, for example the LOA signing of the THAAD system for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that occurred last year. Raytheon has a major part of that procurement based on our TPY-2 radars. We are also continuing to see demand signal in the Asia-Pacific region, especially relative to Japan. I think a big note here on Japan is in 2018, the Abe cabinet did approve their five-year plan which was 10% increase over the prior tenure five-year plan. So in that plan there is a significant effort relative to missile defense. I did mention in my script that we are working with Japan in the development of the SM3 Block 2A and that is a key weapon system that's in their procurement horizon. So we feel very happy about the Asia-Pacific region. And then back home, late last year the missile defense actually came out earlier this year on the Missile Defense Review. And if you go through the Missile Defense Review, we are very encouraged here at Raytheon because many of our systems are called out. The Missile Defense Review will be increasing existing capabilities such as the ground-based interceptors, more of those which has our EKV, Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle, on top of that. They are also more working on area of homeland defense but in terms of improvements that the Missile Defense Review called out, significant support for our replacement kill vehicle. So additional funding for that. I also called out the use of the SPY-6, what we call the AMDR radar, for the Navy. And also the use of the SM3 Block 2A as an important element of the Missile Defense Review. And beyond that, we are left to launch, it did call out the use of advanced sensors on the F-35 and I mentioned in my script that last year one of major franchises that we won was the EODAS, Distributed Aperture System, that will go on the F-35 which provides significant sensor capability here. So we all around, I think the Missile Defense Review was great for us and then also the international demand signals all the away from the Asia-Pacific region, Middle East. And then I mentioned closing several deals in Europe here just last year and then also the significant opportunity here for some more deals here coming in 2019. So we are very optimistic, especially in the area of integrated air missile defense.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Jon Raviv of Citi. Your line is now open.
Jon Raviv:
Hi. Good morning everyone.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Good morning.
Jon Raviv:
Sorry to sort of go in this direction a little bit, but just can you talk a little bit about the idea of cushion in the guidance? And just specifically really to IDS and MS this year? We certainly appreciate there are always a lot of moving pieces and complexities with new stuff ramping. But missile systems seems to have missed again and it was a lowered bar through 2018 and IDS also seemed to miss some margins. So I don't want to focus too much on the past, but just as you layout the 12.1% to 12.3% segment margin guidance for 2019, how much cushion is in there and how do we get over the idea that things can change and perhaps underperform through the year? Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. Jon, let me start maybe high level right at the company level around the guidance and then give you a little color on both of the businesses, missiles and IDS that you talked about. So we are very comfortable and we are pleased with the guidance that we put out there. At the topline, it's showing 6% to 8% growth. If you just take the midpoint, it would be the fifth year in a row of accelerating growth for the company. The other thing to keep in mind and I alluded to, but I quantified in my opening remarks and I will quantify it now, not new news but the headwinds that IIS, they are still growing and we expect them to still grow in 2019. But they do have about $0.5 billion headwind from the ramp down which we knew about of the Warfighter FOCUS program. Normalize for that, you would add about 200 basis points to the range and would be looking at 8% to 10% growth at the company level. We think the guidance we provided at this point, when you look up and down the metrics, is balanced. We are starting the year out. We always look whether it be this year or into the future for ways to improve and do better. And that hasn't changed. I would point out on the operating cash flow, we had exceptional year in 2018. As I mentioned, we beat our expectations by $600 million at the midpoint. And it wasn't just timing, right. We didn't drop 2019 by $600 million. We actually increased it by $100 million which was $300 million operationally offset by a $200 million in additional cash taxes, right. So over that period, very strong performance. So we are very comfortable with it. We are pleased with it. And as usual, we will always look to do better. Now for the two businesses that you referred to and in particular their margin. So from an IDS point of view, I think first and foremost, if I step back, I will look at the total year. They generated really strong margin, 16.6% for the total year. They were up 50 basis points over 2017 and we continue to see their margins in 2019 in that 16% range. Now in the fourth quarter, there were two things that went on at IDS, right. There were some higher levels of investments in the business from an R&D point of view. Think, next-generation advanced radar technology. And we did see on a couple of development programs some cost growth that net net resulted in a little bit lower net productivity compared to what we were expecting. But overall, we are pleased with where IDS' performance is. If I think about 2019 for IDS and again it's a little bit repetitive to what I said earlier, they are performing well. They have got some mature production programs that are ramping down that have already been through the risk retirement phase, if you well. And Tom alluded to in his comments the strong bookings for Patriot with three new countries, four new major Patriot awards for roughly $4 billion last year. Those are just in the early stages. Patriot's closer to a five-year program compared to maybe the company on average is three. So we have kind of got a mix almost within production programs, even within international production programs at IDS because it will be a couple of years before those programs ramp up and retire the risk. But I think we are very pleased with IDS' performance and the track that they are on. From a missiles point of view, I think that there is a couple of things to the point out there. Through last year, we have been talking about the increased level of development work, primarily classified development work, that we have been getting. Three of our businesses have significant new orders this year. Missiles kept exceeding our expectations, right, relative to the increase in classified work that they were getting. And even at a company level, if I take it back to the start of the year and our original revenue guidance and I think at the midpoint of that compared to where we ended up, we were about 170 basis points higher. That was effectively all classified work, right. And as we have talked about, it's a margin headwind in the near-term but over the long-term, it's positive because it does generate those new franchises and margin expansion opportunities when programs move into production. So I think specifically for missiles, we do expect them to improve their margins versus 2018 and 2019, as I said, to a range of 12.1% to 12.3%, They clearly have been hit with the higher level of development in classified programs. Their bookings in that area grew 50%, from $1 billion to $1.5 billion. That's probably rough numbers, close to about 30 basis points impact that they are dealing with. And we are continuing to focus on margin expansion there. They did in the quarter, in addition, have an impact in the quarter from a negative adjustment on an early stage production program that impacted their margin. But there, going forward we feel we have significantly reduced the risk profile on that program in the missiles business going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Robert Spingarn:
Good morning. I wanted to ask a question to Tom and then clarification from Toby. So Tom, your book-to-bill has been excellent last year, almost 1.2. It was good the couple of years before. But it does outpace the sales growth. And I am just wondering if there is a rule of thumb or a curve here that we should be using to model the conversion of bookings to sales? Something like, I don't know, 40% year one, 20% year two, that kind of thing? Or is there an average duration we should be assigning to bookings? Or is this a trend DoD simply locking in money in an accommodating political environment and then spreading the spending? And then for Toby, I just wanted you to clarify your cash deployment comments, given that you guys have the lowest net leverage among peers. Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
Hi Rob. Some good questions there. Let me tackle the ones you gave me. Our business has the kind of two cycle periods, three years and five years. So for example, in our missile business if you are going to go buy some AMRAAM, it's about a three. We get a contract that spreads out over three years, ramping up the first year, doing at least over probably closer to 40% of the work the second year and then ramping down on the third year. And then you get into some of our five-year business which would be like a Patriot system. The Patriot contract to go deliver fire units probably works out to about a five-year program. There obviously is a ramp up and then the ramp down on delivery and then the three years are kind of constant between those ramps. And that's essentially our business. And then we model it that way. It's executed that way. We don't have a lot of above book and turn type business in one year, outside of IIS. The IIS business, those have contracts where they can book and complete in one year. But outside of that, the rest of the company is really based on this three-year and five-year cycle.
Toby O'Brien:
And I will just add on a little bit to what Tom said there and I will give you a comment on the balance sheet and the capital deployment. That's a general rule of thumb, not to get to down in the weeds on this. Obviously, it matters when programs start within a year, right. I mean a program on January 1 versus September 1, you are going to get a different answer in that curve over the three to five years gets pushed out accordingly. Just to reinforce, if you think about it, we grew 6.7% last year, 6% to 8% this year. Just real simplistically, right. And every year is a little different, right. But that's between the two years, 7%, 7% round numbers, it's starting to get close to the levels of the increase that we saw are in the 2018 and the 2019 spending. That gets then converted to sales over roughly three year, maybe a little bit longer on some of the IDS programs. On the balance sheet and our leverage here, we continue to believe our philosophy and approach of utilizing the balance capital deployment strategy. It makes sense. To reiterate, our first priority is investing in ourselves to support growth. The way to think of that this year, we expect our R&D investment expenditures to be about 3% of revenue, where they have been for the last couple of years, obviously a little bit higher in dollars given the higher revenue. We have talked about last year how we ramped up a bit on our CapEx expenditures really to support programs both through demonstration hardware, facilities and infrastructure capability. I think we said back in October, think that of that as around 4% of our revenue and we are in that ballpark there. But that is significant step up over the last couple of years as to where we have been before. But we are doing it because we do believe we align very well with our customers' needs, with our existing and future capabilities and it ties all back to the NDS. Beyond that, we are committed to returning, as a target, 80% of free cash flow to shareholders. I mentioned the philosophy around a competitive and sustainable dividend. The continuation of the buyback program, we do think there is incremental value in the share price. And we do also look to augment that growth with key acquisitions that help with technology and growth. But again those are more the smaller size type of deals. And lastly, we will consider pension contributions on a discretionary basis as we go through the year and look at what's happening in the market and our overall cash flow as well. I think the last point there, just as a reminder and I think everybody knows this, the balanced approach is the philosophy but we obviously have the ability to flex up and down across the elements of that balanced approach if we feel it's going to do more good and create more value to allocate capital a little bit differently than kind of how I just described.
Tom Kennedy:
And just one last element as far as your question is. So we do not see any evidence of the department parking money on contracts that won't be used. So we have not seen any evidence of that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr of Cowen & Co. Your line is now open.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. Thank you. Two questions. So your R&D was up 48% in the fourth quarter. Is that one of the reasons that the margins were light that you basically got paid for that but you didn't have as much margin? And secondly, you have the tantalizing number on cash flow in 2020 which is up but NAs in terms of the factors. Maybe you could give us some color as to how you get to that very strong number? Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure. Cai, let me start with the question on R&D. So the answer is in part, right. And in particular, at IDS it was one of the reasons that I mentioned where their margins were impacted and it was in the fourth quarter and it was related to investments in next-generation radar and radar related technology. So certainly in part relative to the R&D it was. I think on the cash flow for 2020, the $4.6 billion, I think the way to think of that is growth in operating cash during that period will be driven by operations including some international collections. The cash taxes may be slightly lower in 2020, partially offset by some lower net pension. So really it's some puts and takes outside of operations. And I think given the significant size of some of our international programs, the payment terms where often times more often than not, we will get an advance, we will kind of work that off and then we will have milestones or deliveries where we collect the balance of the cash. That's what you are seeing play out in support of the 2020 cash outlook.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Doug Harned of Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Doug Harned:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Doug.
Toby O'Brien:
Good morning Doug.
Doug Harned:
I would like to turn back to missiles because I look at what's going on right now in the world with to missiles. But then you, Lockheed, MBDA, everyone has very strong demand and has rising backlogs. But if I think of those, if I split them into two types, some are production just being flat-out on producing on certain programs and certainly I would say Paveway is probably one of those for you. And others are development. And so I am trying to understand is, how much of what you are doing sort of on the production side could almost be maybe a build to inventory in a sense as opposed to the development side which you are explaining that related to margins which is something that may have a longer-term growth rate associated with it. So could you give us a sense what is the mix sort of on a percentage basis in missiles between production and development? And if I can throw one more thing in there, have you done anything with respect to concerns about possible Saudi sanctions when you look at that outlook?
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. Doug, hopefully, well, I can't hit all those points there. I will start off and then I will let Tom jump in. So your first question about the mix between production and development work. I will kind of put it in absolute terms but then also contrast it back a couple years. So for 2019, think of it rough numbers about 70% production and 30% development. But if you were to go back a couple of years, it would have been more in that 80%, 20% range, okay. So there has been a pretty significant shift at missiles specifically heavily weighted towards the development and it ties into the classified business we are seeing. And on top of that, you made the point but I will quantify it, our missiles business grew 8% in 2016, 10% in 2017, 7% last year and another in 7% to 10% for 2019. So you are seeing that higher mix towards development but on a much higher base as well. As far as the production goes, from time to time we will build to inventory when we think it makes economic sense, not just in missiles but in other of our businesses. But it's not something that we do as a general rule of thumb across all of our programs. And then lastly, from my perspective, on Saudi Arabia I think here is how you should think about it, right. So last call in October, we talked about just under around 5% of our revenue from Saudi. That's where 2018 ended up. It was 5%. 2019 is the same. It's about 5% of revenue. But when you peel that back in and you look at it in two buckets, the component that's related to offensive weapon sales versus defensive, it splits about 50-50. And to this point, relative to the defensive weapon sales, we see no indication, if anything just the opposite of continued support for defensive sales to Saudi Arabia. And I won't repeat it. Tom alluded to the THAAD LOA and the TPY-2 component of that for the Saudi that was signed at the end of last year and we expect to be under contract for this year. So we have only got 2.5% of the company revenue tied to that. We continue to monitor the situation and working with all parties involved and we are optimistic that over time we will get to a point here where things move forward. And again I the 2.5%, it's another feature shows you again the breadth of our portfolio at the company level, how balanced it is. No one country, no one program necessarily is 205, 30% contributor to the company's results.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Your is now open.
Seth Seifman:
Great. Thanks very much and good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Seth.
Seth Seifman:
Tom, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the preparation that you guys are making for the lower tier A&D competition and how the Army's efforts in that area are evolving and what's coming up for this year as you focus on trying to keep that business?
Tom Kennedy:
So we are working with the U.S. Army to develop these advanced capabilities which one of those capabilities for Patriot is an advanced radar capability, 360-degree capability utilizing our advanced technologies. Later this year, there is going to be, what they call, a sense-off. Raytheon will be participating in that. We have made investments over the years to provide a capability that we think is capability that the U.S. Army needs and wants. We will get an opportunity to demonstrate that capability to the United States Army during the sense-off which is expected toward the end of the second quarter of this year. Again, we have been developing this technology over many years. It's a key technology to help us win the AMDR, the EASR and several other radar programs including the 3DELRR for the Air Force. So we feel very well-positioned to provide this new capability to the U.S. Army but also to all our international customers. As I mentioned during my script, we have now a cadre of 16 countries that are Patriot members that are either buying Patriot or have Patriot and in some cases have been spares, buying support and contributing to the overall continued evolution of the Patriot system. This will be in another element to bring into the 16 countries and to future countries that would like to enhance their Patriot systems and then also obviously to the U.S. Department of Defense and the Army in buying those systems. Bottom line is, we feel very well-positioned for the competition. We are taking it seriously. We love radars. It's a major capability of the company. And we have got the whole company focused on winning this.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS. Your line is open.
Myles Walton:
Thanks. Good morning. Maybe Toby first, beyond 2019, in Doug's question you talked about margin mix dynamics from 2019. But beyond 2019, could you comment on margin profiles beyond there, if that's possible? And then maybe for Tom, do expect real direct budget fall through on the back of the Missile Defense Review in 2020 plan? Or is this something more that kicks off studies versus real programs with real money? Thanks.
Toby O'Brien:
So beyond 2019 margins, obviously we are not going to give a specific number. But we are confident that we have the opportunities to continue to improve the margin beyond 2019. I think because of the mix of business, we would see incremental, I will thank of it that way, the opportunity for incremental improvements on a year-over-year basis, not necessarily step functions. And the reason I say that are kind of two or three fold, right. One, maybe not so much with the more recent classified work but some of the development programs that we had won a few years like AMDR, EASR at IDS, Next-Gen Jammer at SAS, et cetera. As those transitioned out of development into low rate, full rate production, all else equal, that provides margin opportunity as we move from cost type to fixed-price type of work. And we are also as a company, we are always looking for other areas to drive margin improvement and offset the headwinds from things like mix, right. So we have talked a lot about the automation investments we have made, working to lean out our factories, trying to enhance more the scope of work that's in our global business or shared services organization to get the benefits of scale there. We are always looking at our indirect cost, both at the corporate level and across the businesses to drive those down and so on and so forth. Supply chain is another big area. So I am confident that the opportunities are there and we will be able to incrementally improve on our segment margins going forward.
Tom Kennedy:
And let take your question relative to whether the Missile Defense Review will just wind up with study contracts? Are there real development type program effort that's going to occur? And then also will there be an increase on production contracts? And the answer is really the latter. There will be development programs that will be funded and there will be production elements. For example, break down in three major areas. The one is essentially to increase what they have today and that's an area of the ground-based interceptors. We provide to kill vehicle for those ground-based interceptors. So they will be production type contracts. They also want to improve what they have today. And on the improvement, we are already involved in that. It's called the replacement kill vehicle or RKV. So that will be an increase in the development program relative to the replacement kill vehicle which will eventually then go into production. And also bring in new more advanced radars like the AMDR SPY-6 on the naval ships and utilizing those. And then also our a SM3 Block 2A which is now ready for production and is going into production. So we will be buying more of those production assets there. And then in terms of some new technology, we are on board for the new technology. It actually calls out using the F-35 for boost-phase intercept capabilities and the new sensor that we won on that, the EODAS, Distributed Aperture System, will be a key element of that. That's a little bit of a development program but geared for production. We also talked about high-energy lasers. We are heavily involved in that. So we see more money going into development for the high-energy lasers. It also calls out some something called the space sensor layer. There will be initially studies to do architectures for that but that will eventually go into a major development program. And then there is a whole area, a big area, an area that we are heavily involved in is hypersonic defense. In fact, we believe the hypersonic defense market is larger than the hypersonic market which we also significantly participate in. And the reason for being larger, the hypersonic defense market also includes the sensors and the trackers to be able to track these the hypersonic threats but then also being able to go off and defeat them. So it's a very important market for Raytheon. We are heavily engaged in it. And we know that there is real money going into that.
Kelsey DeBriyn:
Sonia, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Thank you. And our last question comes from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Hi Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Toby, I hate to do this at the last question but I was going to ask about pension. Slide 13, if I am reading this right, you have a big step up in your cash pension contribution in 2021 on a net basis. Do you see other opportunities within the business, maybe working capital or other things to offset that headwind as get to 2021?
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. So Rob, I will take you back to I guess at slide 12, right. And I know it doesn't go out to 2021, but our cash outlook, the three-year cash outlook here and we are one year into when we provided this three-year look going back to this time last year. We have already compared to what we had said originally pushed things up, however you want to look at it, at least $0.5 billion, if not more towards the high-end of that three-year window. And I think we have got opportunity to continue to have that happen going forward. So we are confident in our ability to continue to generate strong cash flow to offset headwinds including specifically the pension there. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and then, whether it be related to the pension, specifically around asset returns, discount rates, discretionary contributions, et cetera. And then operationally, as I mentioned I think it was Cai's question, these large international programs, right, they present great opportunity for us to drive cash flow and you got some puts and takes on those too, right, when you are working off advances. So things can get lumpy at a point in time and as we get closer to 2021, things will be clearer. But sitting here today, I would say we would have the ability to offset that pension headwind.
Operator:
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn for any closing remark.
A - Kelsey DeBriyn:
Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter conference call in April.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Executives:
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Myles Alexander Walton - UBS Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Candace and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Candace. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slide will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon once again delivered strong operating performance in the third quarter. Sales increased 8.3% and our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow were all better than expected. We continue to see strong global demand for our advanced solutions. Book-to-bill in the third quarter was 1.28, driven equally by international and domestic. And, for the second time this year, we achieved record backlog, which rose to $41.6 billion at the end of the quarter, an increase of nearly $5 billion year-over-year. Given this and the opportunities we see in the fourth quarter, we are again increasing our bookings outlook for the year by another $1 billion. It's worth noting that since the beginning of this year, we have increased our bookings outlook by a total of $2 billion over our original expectation and we now expect a full-year book-to-bill ratio of over 1.1. We are pleased with our bookings performance this year, which positions us well for continued growth in 2019. Toby will discuss additional details about our initial 2019 outlook along with our third quarter performance and updates to guidance in a few minutes. Given the growth of the DoD budget and upcoming competitions we see for advanced solutions, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing our strategy to continuously innovate and refresh the technology in our current franchises and to use that expertise to create new franchises. We try to be the disruptors of our own technology and make investments in order to keep our franchises relevant, so they continue to be value generators for decades to come. We demonstrated this in the innovative solutions we featured at AUSA earlier this month. First, we received positive feedback from our customer on the Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle. We are leveraging our strong international partnerships on Lynx just as we have done with our Naval Strike Missile and the NASAMS System. For this, we are collaborating with Rheinmetall on the Lynx vehicle to meet the U.S. Army's requirement for the next-generation combat vehicle. Our global industry team will offer the Lynx paired with Raytheon's sensors, weapons and systems integration expertise to provide the army with a modern fighting vehicle that will keep U.S. soldiers far ahead of battlefield threats for decades to come. Next, we featured our TOW system, which is the premier, long-range heavy assault, precision weapon system used throughout the world today. Raytheon and the U.S. Army have consistently upgraded TOW since it was first produced in 1970 to keep it relevant for today's fight and help our soldiers preserve their overmatched advantage on the battlefield. Earlier this year, we were awarded a contract by the Army to develop a new propulsion system for the TOW missile. The improved system will increase range and deliver enhanced protection for ground troops while providing them with more capability. Also on display at AUSA was our upgraded Excalibur precision-guided projectile. This new variant, Excalibur Shaped Trajectory, or EST, represents a major leap forward in capability for this already advanced guided munition and enables soldiers to eliminate targets in hard-to-reach locations by offering a new angle of attack. In addition to EST, Raytheon has developed a laser-guided version in a five-inch sea-based variant of Excalibur. The last product featured at AUSA, I'd like to highlight is our Stinger surface-to-air-missile. This missile has provided superior short-range air defense since the 1970s and has had many capability enhancements over the years. This combat-proven missile is deployed in more than 18 nations and with all the four U.S. military services. The latest update, the new proximity fuse enables the lightweight self-contained air defense system to destroy a wider array of battlefield threats including unmanned aircraft systems. As we think about our franchises, we not only refresh the technology, we take the franchise international to broaden our marketplace. This has been our strategy with our combat proven Patriot franchise. During the quarter, we continue to make progress on international opportunities for Patriot. In August, Sweden signed the LOA with the U.S. Government to purchase the Patriot integrated air missile defense system. As a result, Sweden became the 16th nation to rely on Patriot. The LOA paves the way for the U. S. Government to begin contract negotiations with Raytheon for booking in 2019. Sweden Patriot opportunity for Raytheon is still expected to be around $1 billion and in September, we booked over $1.3 billion on our Phase I award with Poland to purchase Patriot. Under the Phase II award, Poland will purchase additional Patriot fire units and has expressed interest in our upgraded gallium nitride-based 360-degree AESA Radars. We still expect the Phase II booking for Poland Patriot in 2020 with a total Raytheon Poland Patriot opportunity to be around $5 billion. For our Romania Patriot opportunity, our next booking is expected to be around $500 million in 2019. Additional follow-on awards to complete the program are expected to be booked in 2020 and 2021. We continue to see the total Raytheon Romania Patriot opportunity to be around $2 billion. As you can see, nations want to protect their sovereignty and the demand signal for defense of systems like Patriot is strong and global. Collectively, these international Patriot bookings are worth around $8 billion and in addition, we see a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Patriot to upgrade to the latest configuration and 360-degree AESA Radar. Turning to Cyber, this quarter we were awarded another multi-year contract with a new government customer in the MENA region to provide advance cybersecurity solutions and operational support. This adds to the strong cybersecurity portfolio we have at IIS, which includes our DOMino program for the Department of Homeland Security. In the space domain, in early October, we were selected as one of two companies to compete for the opportunity to provide the mission payload for the next-generation overhead persistent infrared program. Next Gen OPIR is a new missile warning satellite system for the U.S. Air Force, aimed at countering emerging global threats. As part of the competition, we will complete the critical design review phase of our proposed payload. Raytheon was selected based on its ability to meet stringent schedule, resiliency and technical capability requirements. We see space as an important market over the next several years. Turning to Washington; we are pleased with the successful passage of the fiscal year 2019 Appropriations Bill for the Department of Defense, avoiding a continuing resolution for the first time in a decade. Modernization funding continue to be supported and aligned with Raytheon's core capabilities in areas such as radars, missiles, missile-defense and cybersecurity. The timely bill passage provides valuable stability and predictability which is beneficial for both our customers and our shareholders. Let me close by thanking the members of the Raytheon team worldwide for another strong quarter. They are committed to providing the trusted innovative solutions our customers need and they are focused on the opportunities we have before us to finish the year strong and continue our growth into the years ahead. With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks starting with the third quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. So everyone would please turn to page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the third quarter with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the third quarter of $8.7 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.28. Sales were $6.8 billion in the quarter, up 8.3% with growth across all of our businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.25, up 14.2%, which I'll give a little more color on in just a moment. I'll discuss guidance further in a few minutes, but at a high level, we are updating our expected sales growth from the previous range of 5% to 7%, to a range of 6.5% to 7.5% and we are raising our full-year 2018 outlook for EPS as well as making other updates and as Tom mentioned earlier, we are raising our bookings outlook by $1 billion. And although not on the slide, I want to point out that our operating cash flow in the third quarter was better than our prior expectations due to favorable collections on some of our larger contracts we previously expected in the fourth quarter. Operating cash flow was lower than last year's third quarter as expected due to the previously announced $1.25 billion discretionary pension plan contribution we made in the third quarter 2018, partially offset by lower net cash taxes. Also during the quarter, the company repurchased just over 630,000 shares of common stock for $125 million bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.5 million shares for $925 million. Turning now to page four. Let me start by providing some detail on our third quarter results. Company bookings continue to be strong. For the third quarter, bookings were $8.7 billion, which were approximately $1.7 billion or 25% higher than the same period last year. And on a year-to-date basis, bookings were $23.7 billion, which were $4.5 billion or 24% higher than the comparable period last year. As Tom mentioned, these strong bookings position the company well for continued growth in 2019. Backlog at the end of the third quarter was a record $41.6 billion, up $4.9 billion or 13.4% compared to last year's third quarter. We now move to page five. Third quarter 2018 sales were higher than the guidance we set in July, primarily due to better-than-expected performance at our IIS business. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had third quarter 2018 net sales of $1.5 billion, up 7% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase from Q3, 2017 was primarily driven by higher sales on an international Patriot program that was awarded in the first quarter of 2018. In the third quarter 2018, IIS had net sales of $1.7 billion. The 13% increase compared with Q3 2017 was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs in both the cyber and space business areas; the DOMino cyber program and the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile Systems had third quarter 2018 net sales of $2.1 billion. The 7% increase from the third quarter 2017 was primarily driven by higher net sales on classified programs. In the third quarter 2018, SAS had net sales of $1.7 billion, up 6% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase from Q3, 2017 was primarily driven by higher sales on surveillance and targeting systems programs. Overall, we're pleased with our total company sales, which grew by over 8% in the quarter. Moving ahead to page six; our operating margin in the quarter was 17.4% for the total company and 12.4% on a business segment basis, and as expected, lower than last year's third quarter, primarily due to mix and the timing of program improvements. Overall, the company continues to perform well. So now looking at the business margins; IDS third quarter 2018 operating margin was strong at 16.1%, slightly lower than last year's third quarter, primarily due to higher productivity in Q3, 2017. The increase in operating margin at IIS in the quarter, compared with the same period last year, was primarily driven by higher net program improvements in this year's third quarter. The decrease in margin at Missiles in the quarter compared with the same period last year was primarily driven by higher productivity improvements in Q3, 2017 and a change in program mix. As a reminder, Missiles third quarter 2017 results included large favorable adjustments on a couple of international contracts. SAS operating margin was largely in line with last year's third quarter and Forcepoint had positive operating income of $18 million in the third quarter 2018, with operating margin of 10.4%. Additionally, I want to point out that our third quarter operating income was favorably impacted by $11 million for the actuarial update to our pension plans. I'll touch on this more in a minute. Turning now to page 7; third quarter 2018 EPS was $2.25, better than expected, primarily driven by higher sales volume, the timing of productivity improvements, and other non-operational improvements. Third quarter 2018, EPS was higher than last year's third quarter, primarily driven by operational improvements from higher sales volume and lower taxes primarily associated with tax reform. This was partially offset by the unfavorable $0.80 EPS impact of the previously announced pension plan annuity transaction. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2018 to reflect the higher sales volumes that we are seeing offset by slight change in margin due to program mix that I'll discuss further in a few minutes. It's worth noting, this is the third time we have increased our sales and EPS guidance since January. We have increased our full-year 2018 net sales and narrowed the range. We are raising the low end by $300 million and the high end by $100 million and we now expect net sales to be between $27 billion and $27.3 billion, up 6.5% to 7.5% from 2017. The increase versus our prior guidance is driven primarily by IIS. As I just mentioned and as we have done in prior years, during the third quarter we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update the FAS/CAS Operating Adjustment for the year improved by $14 million and the retirement benefits non-service expense for the year also improved by $14 million. Taken together, they had a favorable impact of approximately $0.08 per share, with $25 million or $0.07 per share recorded in the third quarter 2018 and $3 million or $0.01 per share expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018. And as a reminder, the updated 2018 retirement benefits non-service expense includes the $288 million settlement charge for the third quarter pension plan annuity transaction. We are improving the range of our net interest expense by $15 million, which is worth about $0.03 to $0.04 to EPS compared to our prior guidance. Turning to share count, we continue to see our average diluted shares outstanding at approximately 287 million shares for 2018, consistent with what we said in July, and we still see the effective tax rate for the full year to be approximately 10.5%. We've increased our full-year 2018 EPS, raising the low end by $0.24 and the high-end by $0.14 from our prior guidance. We now expect our EPS to be in the range of $10.01 to $10.11. We continue to see our 2018 operating cash flow outlook between $2.6 billion and $3 billion. And on page nine, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the full-year sales outlook at IIS and for the total company. We've also increased the low end of the range at IDS and SAS to reflect the combination of stronger bookings performance to-date and fourth quarter expectations and at Missiles, we continue to see strong growth. We now see their full-year 2018 sales growth in the 8% to 9% range. We've updated the range due to the timing of international and domestic programs. Overall, we're pleased with the company's sales growth. Turning to margins, both at the business segment and company level, we have updated margins to reflect the revised sales mix and related margin impact. Before moving on to page 10, as Tom mentioned earlier, given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectation for a strong fourth quarter, we are now raising our full-year 2018 bookings outlook by $1 billion to a range of between $29.5 billion to $30.5 billion. The increase is driven by strong demand from our global customers and positions us well for continued growth in 2019. On page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the fourth quarter for sales, earnings per share and operating cash flow from continuing operations. We expect our fourth quarter sales to be in a range of $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion, and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $2.78 to $2.88. For modeling the fourth quarter EPS, we expect the effective tax rate to be about 17%. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $1.6 billion to $2 billion. Now, turning to our initial outlook for 2019 on page 11; as we sit here today, we currently see the book-to-bill ratio above 1.0 and strong sales growth for 2019 of 6% to 8% over our 2018 outlook. We expect total business segment margin to be in line with 2018, our effective tax rate to be approximately 17% to 19% and our operating cash flow to continue to be strong in the range of $3.8 billion to $4 billion. This is our initial look at 2019, and as we have done in the past, we intend to provide detailed 2019 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call in January. So if you could please move to page 12; we have provided a pension matrix for 2019. This chart indicates a range of possible outcomes based upon different 2018 asset return rates and discount rates that will be determined at year-end. Each box contains a possible outcome for the 2019 FAS/CAS operating adjustment on the top left and the 2019 retirement benefits non-service expense non-operating on the bottom right. As of September 30, 2018, the discount rate was around 4.25%, approximately 50 basis points higher than it was at the end of 2017, and our return on assets was roughly 2.5%. And just to be clear, the final discount rate and the actual asset returns won't be known until we close out 2018. We'll provide a more detailed pension outlook on our year-end call in January. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earnings calls with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year and remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In summary, we had another strong quarter. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow were all above our expectations. We remain well-positioned with both our domestic and international customers' priority areas, we increased our full-year 2018 outlook for bookings and EPS, increased the sales growth range to 6.5% to 7.5% and have a strong foundation for continued growth in 2019. With that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question comes from Jon Raviv of Citi. Your line is now open.
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jon.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
In January, you guys issued some cumulative cash flow targets that implied or that talked about $7 billion to $8 billion in 2019 and 2020. Can you talk about some of the building blocks going from this year to next, given the operating cash flow guide in 2019? It just seems that since that January target was issued, sales are clearly better. So I'm just curious, what some of the changes are, and if you could also mention CapEx in the next year as well, that would be helpful too. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Jon, it's Toby. Let me take a crack at that. So you're right, we had talked about a $7 billion to $8 billion range over the next couple years. Since that time, we made a discretionary pension contribution that we talked about improving cash flow all else equal of about $1 billion over the 2019 to 2020 period. Our operating cash flow outlook for 2019, that I mentioned earlier in the $3.8 billion to $4 billion range is in line with that original range in additional pension benefits. So, things are continuing to track as we would expect there. A little bit more color. We do expect to see some higher cash from operations, and pension as I just alluded to, but there is going to be a partial offset with higher cash taxes, if you want to think of it certainly compared to 2018. And then from a CapEx perspective, think of it for 2018 maybe slightly increased as a percentage of sales, 3% to 4%, as we continue to invest in the business compared to in the roughly 3% range that we are seeing for 2018.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hey, Rob.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
On the margins for next year, given the higher sales, is there no opportunity for leverage there? Maybe you could talk about the upward and downward pressure on that; or are you simply being conservative? Is it mix, is it labor tightness or conservatism?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Rob, let me take a crack at that. So, as we said, this is our initial look at 2019, and we did say in – margins in line next year with what we're seeing this year at the segment level. As we discussed before, the margins can be impacted by the timing of risk retirements as well as mix, especially as we start up new programs and – including development programs at lower margins. We are continuously focused on margins and we'll continue to do so through the balance of this year into 2019. I think if you want a little bit of color on the mixed side of things, right now for the current mix we see is roughly 60% from fixed price contracts. Again, we've talked a lot about the mix that we're seeing in development versus production cost type versus fixed price higher classified and CRAD sales. I just mentioned – and not new news, but when we start programs up, we start them up at a lower-margin rate until we get to a point where we're comfortable that we can retire risk and move on the margins. That said, as I mentioned, we're still in the planning process for 2019. There are these factors that are influencing margins. We see improvements in some areas right. So we got some puts and takes, but overall, we're pleased with the margin performance. We're early in our process and we're always focused on trying to improve our margins.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Doug Harned of Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Doug.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Morning Doug.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
On Missile Systems, you've had a couple of years here where you've had very strong growth in backlogs. You're continuing to get that and – can you talk a little bit about what's going on there? Obviously you've had some wins, but we are looking at, you took guidance down some on revenues and on margins for Missile Systems this year. What's the flow here? How should we look at this over the next year or so in terms of revenue and margins?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Doug, I'll start here and I'll give you a little bit of color on what we did here relative to the outlook for this year. As far as sales go, we see a couple of changes from our prior guidance. We have been expecting an international order for production program that would have had a favorable impact on sales by – including by liquidating some inventory in the fourth quarter. The timing of that award has moved out of the year. We also see a shift in the ramp-up on a couple domestic backlog programs that's moved into 2019. Overall, we're still growing at 8% to 9% and that's on top of 10% growth last year. So we're pleased with what Missiles is doing and how they're growing. Relative to the margin, when you look at their year-to-date performance and we've discussed this on prior calls, we are seeing an increase in new development programs, right. Higher CRAD, higher classified work, and they all bode well for the future, but they have impacted margins in the short term and additionally, the latter – later timing of the international program award I just mentioned, impacts the mix in Q4 which has also impacted their margins. We do expect margins at Missiles to improve in Q4 and in 13 – low- to mid-13% close to 14% range, really driven by the timing of potential program efficiencies. As far as 2019 – I'm not going to get into 2019 at this point, but I will say, as we said before, as I just mentioned what Rob talked, we continue to focus on margins in the business. We continue to make capital investments to improve our productivity, especially in the factories and always look for ways to be more efficient to try to offset the impacts of mix. So, overall we expect to deliver solid margins next year on good growth and we'll be more specific as we get to January.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hey Doug, its Tom. Just one thing to add relative to Missiles, which is a big plus for us, is the fiscal year 2019 budget had the funding in it for multi-years so we're not just one other franchises but for two. So it's a multi-year – five-year multiyear for SM-6 and then also another five-year multi-year for SM-3. So it's pretty clear for us, because that does give us insight into the factory and stability there for about eight years. So, again, five year is the last option awarded to carry out three, giving us eight years of factory stability. And the bottom line is, we see missiles as being a very healthy business for us here out in the future.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Tom, obviously, some issues in the Middle East at the moment and specifically Saudi Arabia; given your experience of the region, I was wondering if you could give us your perspectives on what could happen here and whether there could be any negative ramifications for your business?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I'll start it off and then Toby, obviously, this is something that we've been watching very carefully, but as you know, and I think as you kind of alluded to upfront, we have supported the kingdom of Saudi Arabia in securing defense for more than 50 years and through that course of time, we have seen issues that have occurred at different periods of uncertainty. And we've always resolved them through the end and by doing this one thing, it's actually following the direction and position of the U.S. administration, which were right behind in making sure that we understand where they are going and that we're locked in step behind them. Also our business and just to remind everyone, is not dependent on any one customer or one program or one franchise. We are a global company providing technology and security solutions for over 80 countries and we have numerous global franchises. So I'm pretty confident that we will weather this complexity, mainly it's kind of a geopolitical environment we have right now and then working through that. That said, we have looked at things and Toby can kind of give you some of the financial details of what this potentially could mean to us moving forward.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, so just given the events, to give you a little bit of color and sight to how we're thinking about Saudi; sitting here today, as Tom mentioned, we continue to be aligned with the administration's policies and we plan to honor our commitments. We don't usually get into customer-specific financials, but again, given all the events of late, I will tell you that our Saudi business represents nearly 5% of our year-to-date 2018 revenue. And looking ahead, we see it flattish year-over-year in 2019. This includes our backlog for both defensive and offensive weapons, as well as services and support programs. As far as any new orders, we have an assumption in the fourth quarter of 2018 for a couple of follow-on support contracts and next year we have a major award assumed for the TPY-2 Radar program, which, as all of our bookings are, is factored. And as Tom said, and just to reinforce it as a reminder, our sales aren't dependent on any one contract or foreign country specifically, and again, it just goes to show the strength of our diverse portfolio. But that's a little color on how we're thinking of Saudi based on what we know today.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from George Shapiro of Shapiro Research. Your line is now open.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yeah. Good morning. Tom, I just wanted to follow-up...
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, George.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
...a little bit with Doug's question on Missiles. I mean, if I compare your growth rate in Missiles this year, I mean you've kind of down-picked it through the year. Lockheed will have a faster growth rate and has upticked it. It's not directly comparable; I mean, they have Patriot and air missiles, you have it in IDS, but is there any competitive issues that you've lost that would suggest why they are raising their forecast while yours are coming down in that area?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
George, we don't – I don't see any issue there. I mean, we all started from different points. We've been on a ride here since 2015 with increases and actually have accelerated growth through that business here since that time. So we're very happy with where we're at relative to Missiles and where we are going. We just had a big – several being wins here. One is the Naval Strike Missile which will be a replacement to the Harpoon missile, which we believe is close to about an $8-billion franchise program and several others like that. We are heavily participating in the hypersonic new missile work that's going on with DARPA with two programs, one is the HAWC and the other one is the TBG, Tactical Boost Glide. And we're also participating on the Army programs. The PRSM precision strike weapon which is replacement to ATAC, I know all of these are upside to us because we didn't have the Harpoon before and we didn't have the ATacMS before. So, we feel we're very competitive and then even on hypersonics, there's a whole other area nobody seems to be talking about, which is the counter-hypersonics, which we're heavily engaged in. A lot of this activity is classified, so I can't go into a lot of details, but we're very positive about the missile company and its growth moving out here in the next several years.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And George, I would just add on the financial side of it, the revised outlook, it's in line with where we started the year out with the original guide for missiles and I mentioned when – on Doug's question we did have an international order move out of the year where we would have had some inventory liquidation. That's the major driver for the change in the revenue guidance and that was not competitive, that was a sole-source order – it's a timing issue. And I'd also tell you, quantitatively we've talked about before how the company – at the company level, we see our competitive win rate in the 70% range plus or minus. I'll tell you, Missiles is above that based on a year-to-date basis this year. So, really just timing is the way to think of it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Carter Copeland of Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Hey, good morning gentlemen.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hey Carter.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Carter.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Nice win last night, those Dodgers knocked my Braves out, so I'm counting on you guys.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
We are trying.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
We're going to be going to some warmer weather, so we'll see how that plays out.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Well, that's not in your favor, but hopefully you'll pull it out. Look I just wanted to talk about the, sort of, news of yesterday and the whole bidding environment, and obviously, the opportunity pipeline for everyone looks a little bit more robust, but we're seeing different levels of sort of strategic aggression, if you will, in terms of going after stuff that people deem vital to their franchise. I just wonder maybe Tom, if you could kind of walk us through your thought process on what that means for you guys in terms of IRAD investment, cost structure, just in general, how you compete in that kind of environment?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, thanks for the question, Carter. Let me start with – first of all, Raytheon is not a platform company, and instead our innovative solutions and our franchise is across multiple platforms. So, I think that helps us relative to some of the rhetoric that you heard yesterday bouncing around. So, we have not really seen those kind of impacts relative to our competitions', so it hasn't really been meaningful to us. But in the endgame, we feel that when the contracting environment is such that we have a level playing field, we do quite well and as Toby just mentioned a while ago, our win rates are in the 70% across the board for the company. So, we feel we're doing a very good job relative to winning new competitive business. And the other element is we take that competitive business to the international marketplace relative to expanding these franchises globally, which has helped us out quite a bit. All that said, price is important and it's important to our customer, so we have to be cost-effective. So, one of the things that we have been doing is using our technology and technology we've been developing and bringing to these competitions, not just to enhance the performance of our solution, but also to take out the cost significantly. And so we've been looking at cost on day one of every one of these competitions to figure out our overall strategy; who we're going to go team with, what type of technologies we're going to bring to the game, what we're going to have to do in our factories to get cost out, and I think the work that we have been doing seems to be paying off. And again, you have to look at our results, and our results are our win rates. So we are very comfortable and now at the same time, we do understand that folks will do a return on investment relative to some of these major franchise programs, and we'll do long ball relative to those and try to determine what makes sense for them and where they can expand these franchises, both globally, and do a lateral exploitation of them into potentially other solutions for the customers. I will tell you we do that on a daily basis here and that's why we have a franchise strategy and we look – I think that's one of the reasons why our win rates are so high in this market.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And I think just real quick relative to the investment, I mentioned CapEx on Jon's question for next year; from an R&D point of view, think of it similar to where we are this year, around 3% of sales.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Tom, maybe just a follow-up on that last question from a little bit of a different angle, you mention Raytheon as not being a platform company and we just got news within the last couple of weeks and that Harris and L3 are planning to merge creating a more sizable defense contractor that also is kind of more not a platform company. Does that have any impact on the way that you view the competitive landscape and the way that you think about deploying cash?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, first of all, we don't see a direct impact relative to the merger of the two companies, L3 and Harris. We – turns out they are not our main competitors across our markets. We do run into them on certain competitions and we are definitely pleased with the portfolio of advanced solutions we have. We have been investing significantly here since about 2014. That was our roadmap that we laid out for our investors that we said that we were going to grow the company and we have been doing that year-over-year. So we essentially have accelerated growth through that time span. And again, I think those investments have been paying off relative to the competitions that we have been in and that's what's leading to this greater than 70% competitive win rate moving forward.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Sam Pearlstein of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi. Good morning, Sam.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I wanted to go back and just look at the margin again. You talk about 2019 is overall flat and you have now reduced 2018 a little bit; so in terms of where you were after last quarter, it's a little bit down, but can you just talk directionally about the different segments where they may be up, where they may be down, because what you just said about Missile Systems would imply that that should be up. Last quarter there was a contractual matter that moved out of the year and now this other piece. So wouldn't that – that should be pushing Missile Systems at least up. So I am trying to just think about what might be down.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, Sam, so we are not going to give specific detail by business for 2019 really just because we are early on in the process. What I can tell you, to give you a little bit of color, we do see most of the business margins in line with 2018 and I'm just going to leave it at that for now and we'll go into the segment-by-segment detail and year-over-year flux on the January call.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Peter Arment of Baird. Your line is now open.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, Tom, Toby.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Peter.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hey, Tom, question I guess on the budget. It's nice to see the 2019 budget coming in on time; can't remember when the last one was on time, but thinking about 2020, there's been a lot of discussions around kind of a flatterer top line. Potentially, I assume investment accounts are more inflation oriented; how do you see that kind of the Raytheon portfolio setting up? You've obviously had a lot of wins and you're gaining share, but just maybe some commentary on that.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Let me just lay things out here. It's a great, great question. First of all, there was this – the administration talking about a potential 5% cut to the fiscal year 2020 budgets. Many of the agencies are in 5% cut from fiscal year 2019 and there's been some further discussions out there, some other information that says it's really for the defense budget. It's really they're looking at potentially 2.5% cut. Now that was off of a number that included OCO so we're not positive; some of the 2.5% or majority of them could come right out of OCO and then – therefore have zero impact, but even if it's full 2.5% against the fiscal year 2019 budget, what that will do is take it back to the fiscal year 2018 budget and if you remember, the fiscal year 2018 budget was 19% increase over the fiscal year 2017 budget. So bottom-line, the fiscal 2018 pretty healthy Defense budget. So we're on – based on the award that we received – will be receiving in 2018 and also 2019, we feel that we'll be in a really great shape for fiscal year 2020 and that's one of the reasons why we have given a fairly leading-forward guidance relative to revenue growth in 2020 – in 2019; 6% to 8% growth. And so bottom line is, we think the budget process is right in the line where we need it to be, and we obviously will be watching on a day-to-day basis. The other one, I just mentioned earlier, which is helps us relative to some stability here over the next several years is the multi-year awards on SM-6 and then also on the SM-3 five-year multi-years on both of those taking us out giving us the stability in the factory for about eight years. And bottom-line is that we still have a long process to go on a fiscal year 2020 budget before it's finalized. Congress has to weigh in on the Defense level standings and then – but do remember, the Congress did provide increases significantly above the Trump administration's request for the DoD top-line at fiscal year 2018 and a DoD modernization budget in fiscal year 2019. So bottom line is it's not over until it's over. We got to go through a long process, but right now we believe that we are at a – even at the minimum, we're in a very good position moving forward.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr of Cowen and Company. Your line is now open. Cai, your line is now open.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Cai, are you there? Cai, are you on mute?
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Excuse me...
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Let's move to the next...
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
I was on...
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
There you are.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So you've raised your bookings target by $1 billion for this year and look for book-to-bill over 1.0 next year; could you comment on the relative book-to-bill between foreign and domestic, both this year and kind of the trends going into next year?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So Cai, for this year, based upon the $1-billion increase, the book-to-bill for both domestic, foreign and the total company are kind of sort of in the same ballpark. I think around 1.1 plus or minus is just a coincidence. Tom mentioned even in the quarter, we have 1.28 and that was – 1.28 domestically and internationally. So, right around 1.1 for both the domestic, foreign and total company. As far as next year, I think at this level, just at a high level we expect to see continued growth both domestically and internationally, and will quantify that more in January.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Rajeev Lalwani of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Morning, gentlemen.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rajeev.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Tom, Toby, you touched on this a little bit before, but just on the under-levered balance sheet, I mean, with the sell-off that we've seen in the stock and maybe a declining number of M&A opportunities out there, is that pushing you to maybe change your stance maybe a bit more front-footed versus what we've seen over the last year or so?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, I will hit that real quick. Bottom line is, we are committed to a balance capital development strategy and you can see that we are continuing to investment in our selves; those investments are paying off and our win rates on competitive – we believe that's the right thing to continue to grow our top lines as you're making – continuing with those investment and obviously we're also supporting the pension and our dividend and ensuring we do drive total shareholders return relative to this capital deployment strategy that we have in place.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, I'll just add, I mean I wouldn't expect to see any dramatic shift or reallocation of capital around the framework, or within the framework Tom talked about. We do see value in our stock clearly and we are committed in – over time to continue to reduce our share count. The guidance we have for this year is about 1.5% reduction year-over-year and then – and again in January we'll give you some insight on to how we are thinking about the total aspect of capital deployment for 2019.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS. Your line is now open.
Myles Alexander Walton - UBS:
Thanks. One confirmation and then one question; so on the confirmation, Toby, is it 2019 and 2020 look still – or it's combined now, it's $8 billion to $9 billion of operating cash flow, and then secondly, on IIS, Tom or Toby, the IIS number look increasingly better. I'm just curious, is Warfighter FOCUS becoming less and less of a headwind? You mentioned some of the uppers, but I mean it's a short cycle business. Are you just seeing that short cycle business come through a lot quicker than I would have otherwise thought?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, Miles, let me take that one first. The Warfighter FOCUS is – bottom line is that program is rolling off a lot slower than we initially anticipated and we are picking up other similar work, both domestically and internationally, to fill the hole for Warfighter FOCUS. So bottom line is that team is been very successful with that but they've also been very successful in winning other awards and bringing other business on board. Competitive win rates are very high and they're actually making quite a bit of progress on the international front relative to their international cyber work. They just won a major deal in Oman, and so the business is doing really well.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So I think – you're right on the cash, Myles, just to confirm, how you characterize the cash is correct.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you, and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Just touch upon (54:32) for a minute. There was an improvement in the quarter on a sequential basis. The performance overall has been weaker than expected. Maybe can you talk about what's going on in that business at the moment, and how you think about potential optimality from here?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I think relative to Q3 in the quarter – let me start with bookings. There was 13% year-over-year growth and if you remember, they had a 29% year-over-year improvement in Q2, so the trend there is positive and encouraging. The Q3 sales growth was a little lower than our expectations, however, the team did do a good job in controlling cost in the quarter. And we were pleased with the return to profitability that you alluded to in Q3, with margins in line with our expectations. Looking forward to Q4, we do expect to see continued bookings growth about in line with Q3's growth rate. We do expect stronger sales growth and another quarter of positive operating profit and margins about in line with Q3, 9%-10% give or take from that perspective there. As far as the optionality, everything remains in play. As we've talked about in the past, we did go into the commercial cyber business to unlock trapped value in the company, and over time, we expect to do that and all options are out there that we will consider at the right time.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Richard Safran of Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, Kelsey, good morning. How are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rich. How you're doing?
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Lot has been asked, so I wanted to just talk to you about productivity for a second if I could. Tom, Toby, I know you've been talking about productivity improvements for quite some time, and I wanted to get a sense from you about how much runway you think you have left here with productivity improvement initiatives? To the extent you can discuss it, could you talk about how productivity is factored into your 2019 margin guide, and if improvements are still having a meaningful impact?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Rich. I mean, as I mentioned earlier and we do all the time, we're always looking for different ways to improve our productivity through capital investment, through initiatives to our supply chain, utilizing Six Sigma, more from an automation point of view, we talked about our shared services that we stood up several years back that we continue to try to maximize the benefit from there. We continue to see productivity. We've got assumptions in the 2019 numbers that we talked about earlier and the way to think about it, we're getting more productivity and it's needed because right now when we set margins in line, we are seeing the headwinds from the mix within the business and that improved productivity is helping to mitigate the impact from a margin point of view of the improved mix – the negative mix from a margin point of view.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
That's all the time we have today. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter conference call in January.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. That does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Executives:
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Derek and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Derek. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon's growth strategy continued to deliver results for our shareholders and customers. In the second quarter sales increased 5.5% and our bookings, sales, EPS, and operating cash flow were all better than expected. We continue to see strong global demand for our advanced solutions. Our book-to-bill ratio in the second quarter was 1.31. This drove an increase in backlog of $3.7 billion year-over-year to a new record backlog of approximately $40 billion. Given these strong results and opportunities we see in the second half of the year we are increasing our bookings outlook for the year by $1 billion driven by strength primarily in our classified business. We are also increasing our sales and EPS guidance for the year. Toby will discuss additional details about our second quarter performance and updates to our guidance in a few minutes. Now let me share some highlights from our domestic business where we saw strong growth in bookings and sales in the second quarter. Domestic bookings were up over 60% year-over-year and domestic sales grew 6.5% in the quarter. For the company, bookings growth in the quarter was driven by classified, which represented over 30% of our total bookings. In fact, we set a new company record for classified bookings in a quarter which more than doubled over the same period last year. We had classified bookings in the quarter of $1.1 billion at SAS, $800 million at IIS and $700 million at Missiles. Classified sales also set a new record in the quarter, up over 20% versus the same period last year. As a reminder, our classified business is important as it often funds technology development that is integral to the long term growth of our future franchises and production awards. Our strength in classified is driven in large part by the need of our domestic customers to address advanced threats and demonstrates Raytheon's alignment to the National Defense Strategy. The increase from the fiscal year 2018 Defense Appropriations Bill is starting to come through in our domestic bookings, especially in classified and we are starting to see some of the increase to sales. But as we said last quarter, we will see a majority of the sales impact starting in 2019 and beyond. To prepare for this growth in classified, in May, Missiles dedicated new facilities as part of its expansion in Arizona. The first buildings are scheduled to be completed this year and include an advanced testing facility. The full expansion is expected to be complete in 2020 to support the development of advanced solutions and includes engineering and manufacturing enhancements, new laboratories and high power computing capabilities. During the quarter we also expanded the content we have on the F-35 fighter jet. In June, Raytheon was selected to develop and deliver the next generation distributed aperture system or DAS for the F-35. The DAS collects and sends high-resolution, real-time imagery to the pilot's helmet display from six infrared cameras mounted around the aircraft. With the ability to detect and track threats from any angle, the F-35 DAS gives pilots unprecedented situational awareness of the battle space. Our DAS system enhances capability and reliability versus the prior system. We have been developing this technology over the past few years, which will be applicable to other aircraft including the rotorcraft market. And in April, Raytheon and the U.S. Navy completed the final development test to integrate the Joint Standoff Weapon C onto the F-35 variant. This keeps these low-cost, air-to-ground missiles on track for full deployment in 2019. The JSOW glide weapon uses a GPS inertial navigation system with an imaging infrared seeker that can identify and track targets autonomously. JSOW C can eliminate the toughest high-value land targets at ranges greater than 70 nautical miles, day or night and in adverse weather conditions. Also in April we completed developmental testing on the Small Diameter Bomb II, also known as StormBreaker. This is a key step toward bringing this new capability to our domestic and international markets. U.S. government operational testing is scheduled to be completed later this year. StormBreaker can eliminate a wider range of targets with fewer aircraft, reducing the pilot's time in harm's way. (6:26) detects, classifies and tracks targets even in adverse weather conditions from standoff ranges. Raytheon and the U.S. Air Force have completed aircraft integration for the F-15E and have begun integration activities for the F/A-18E and F and the F-35B with the U.S. Navy. Also during the quarter, the U.S. Navy selected the Naval Strike Missile for over-the-horizon defense of littoral combat ships and future frigates. NSM is a fifth-generation long-range precision strike weapon that can find and destroy enemy ships at distances up to 100 nautical miles away. The missile is offered by Raytheon in partnership with Kongsberg. And because it's already a proven and operational solution, NSM saves the U.S. billions of dollars in development costs. The contract includes options which if exercised would bring the contract value to approximately $850 million. NSM is a new missile franchise for Raytheon, and our goal is to replace the existing domestic and international inventory of Harpoon and other international surface-to-surface missiles, making NSM a multibillion-dollar franchise opportunity. Turning to international, last week at the Farnborough International Air Show, we hosted over 800 meetings with a wide range of global customers. Having spoken personally to customers at the show, as well as on other customer visits, I can tell you that demand for our advanced solutions is strong and growing across Europe, Asia-Pacific and MENA as nations look to protect their sovereignty, deter adversaries and acquire counterinsurgency/counterterrorism capabilities. We have a strong pipeline of international booking opportunities ahead. In May, we booked over $300 million on our first award with Romania to purchase our combat-proven Patriot air and missile defense system. The next award is expected in 2019, and additional follow-on awards to complete the program are expected to be booked in 2020 and 2021. We continue to see the total Raytheon Romania Patriot opportunity to be around $2 billion. Our other international Patriot opportunities remain on track as well. We still expect Sweden to sign the LOA with the U.S. government to purchase our Patriot air and missile defense system in the second half of 2018. This paves the way for the U.S. government to begin contract negotiations with Raytheon for a booking in 2019. The Sweden Patriot opportunity for Raytheon is expected to be around $1 billion. For our Poland Patriot opportunity, we still anticipate a booking for Phase I in 2019 and Phase II in 2020. The Phase I opportunity for Raytheon is expected to be over $1 billion, with the total Raytheon Poland Patriot opportunity to be around $5 billion. Turning to Washington, we are pleased that Congress is moving forward with the fiscal year 2019 funding bills including Defense. The fiscal year 2019 request is consistent with the newly revised BCA caps and will keep DOD modernization funding at about the same elevated level of fiscal year 2018. We continue to see congressional support for the National Defense Strategy modernization priorities where Raytheon has strong core capabilities. I want to close by underscoring one of the foundations of our success, and that is our culture of innovation. This reflects the fact that we are a technology company, and for generations our global team has been pushing the bounds of what's possible. The awards and opportunities I mentioned earlier are just some of the most recent examples of our innovation in action. And last month, we were the proud recipient of the 10 millionth patent in U.S. history, one of Raytheon's more than 13,000 active patents. I want to thank the Raytheon team for continuing to champion a culture of innovation, which helps us to create the trusted, innovative solutions we are known for around the world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the second quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning, if everyone would please turn to Page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the second quarter with bookings, sales, EPS, and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the second quarter of $8.7 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.31. Sales were $6.6 billion in the quarter, up 5.5% led by our IIS and Missiles businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.78, better than our guidance and an increase of 47.1% year-over-year. I'll give a little more color on this in just a moment. We generated strong operating cash flow of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, which was also better than our prior guidance primarily due to favorable collections and lower net cash taxes of approximately $250 million related to the discretionary pension plan contribution that we'll make in the third quarter 2018. I'll discuss this further in a few minutes. During the quarter the company repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for $400 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 3.8 million shares for $800 million. And based upon our strong performance to-date I want to point out that for the second time this year we are raising the full year 2018 outlook for sales and EPS. We are also raising the full year 2018 outlook for bookings, as well as making other updates, primarily for pension and tax related items. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to Page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Company bookings for the second quarter were $8.7 billion, which were $2.2 billion or 33% higher than the same period last year. And on a year-to-date basis, bookings were $15 billion, which were $2.8 billion or 23% higher than the comparable period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing four quarter basis our book-to-bill ratio was 1.18 and our bookings were a record $30.5 billion over that same period. As Tom mentioned, these strong bookings position the company well for future growth. For the quarter, international was 21% of our total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 31%. For the year, we expect international to be about 35% to 37% of total bookings. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was a record $39.9 billion, up over $3.7 billion or 10% compared to last year's second quarter. Approximately 40% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. We now move to Page 5. For the second quarter 2018, sales were above the high end of the guidance we set in April primarily due to better than expected performance at our IIS business. For the second quarter our international sales were approximately 31% of total sales. And as we mentioned on past calls we expect sales for the company to accelerate throughout the year with a stronger second half driven by our bookings over the past several quarters. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had second quarter 2018 net sales of $1.5 billion, up 4% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase from Q2 2017 was primarily driven by higher sales on an international Patriot program that was awarded in the first quarter of 2018. In the second quarter 2018 IIS had net sales of $1.7 billion. The 8% increase compared with Q2 2017 was primarily due to higher net sales on classified programs, the DOMino cyber program and the Air and Space Operations Center Weapon System program. And as we've previously discussed, we expect IIS growth rate to moderate in the back half of the year due to the planned ramp down and transition on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile Systems had second quarter 2018 net sales of $2.1 billion, up 8% compared with the same period last year. The increase was driven by higher net sales on classified programs. We expect the growth rate at Missiles to be stronger for the balance of the year. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion, in line with last year's second quarter. As a reminder, we see growth in the second half of the year at SAS. And for Forcepoint, sales were up 7% compared with the same quarter last year. We expect the growth rate will continue to accelerate across the next two quarters as indicated by bookings strength in the second quarter of $148 million, up 29% versus the same period last year. Overall we're pleased with our total company sales which grew 5.5% in the quarter. Moving ahead to Page 6. Overall we delivered solid margin performance in the quarter. Our operating margin in the quarter was 16.6% for the total company and 11.7% on a business segment basis and as expected, lower than last year's second quarter primarily due to mix. So looking now at margins by business. IDS second quarter 2018 operating margin was strong at 17.3%, which benefited from productivity improvements as well as favorable mix versus Q2 of 2017. IIS operating margin was up slightly compared to last year's second quarter. The decrease in margin at Missiles in the quarter compared with the same period last year was primarily driven by an expected change in mix. We see Missiles' operating margin improving in the back half of the year. As expected, SAS margin was lower in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by a change in program mix and other performance in the second quarter of 2018. And at Forcepoint as we discussed on past calls, operating income was negative for the quarter. This is due to an increase in operating cost to support Forcepoint's long-term growth. We expect Forcepoint's operating income to be positive in both the third and fourth quarters of 2018. Turning now to Page 7, second quarter 2018 EPS was $2.78, higher than last year's second quarter primarily due to the favorable impact of tax reform and the tax impact from the third quarter 2018 discretionary pension plan contribution. It's worth noting the discretionary pension plan contribution was not included in our prior guidance and I'll discuss it further in a moment. In addition, second quarter EPS was better than our guidance primarily due to higher sales volume, timing and the tax impact of the previously mentioned discretionary pension plan contribution. On Page 8 we've provided you with a 2018 financial outlook walk to bridge our prior guidance from April to our current guidance. As I mentioned earlier, we are increasing our full year 2018 guidance for sales and EPS to reflect our improved operating performance as well as for tax and pension related items. Let me take you through each of these items. In operations, we increased the sales range by $200 million, driven by higher domestic orders primarily in the classified area. This increase contributes about $0.05 to 2018 full year EPS. Next, there are a couple of pension related items to discuss. First, a $1.25 billion pre-tax discretionary pension plan contribution will be made by September 15, 2018 using cash on hand. As a reminder, we have discussed making a potential discretionary pension plan contribution on past calls. Since the decision was made in the second quarter 2018, a $95 million net tax benefit was recorded in the second quarter which had a favorable impact to the effective tax rate for the full year of 310 basis points and a favorable EPS impact of $0.33. In addition, as a result of the discretionary pension plan contribution, I want to point out that our outlook for operating cash flow from continuing operations was reduced for the full year 2018 by approximately $1 billion. This reduction is the net impact of the third quarter 2018 $1.25 billion discretionary pension plan contribution, favorably offset by lower net cash taxes of approximately $250 million related to that contribution. Moving on, some of the company's pension plans purchased a group annuity contract to transfer to an insurance company nearly $1 billion of outstanding pension benefit obligations related to certain U.S. retirees and beneficiaries of some of our non-CAS covered and previously discontinued operations. This transaction closed on July 17, 2018. In connection with this transaction an unfavorable non-cash, non-operating pension settlement charge of $288 million pre-tax, $228 million after tax, will be recognized in the third quarter 2018, primarily related to the accelerated recognition of actuarial losses in those plans. This will have a favorable impact to the effective tax rate for the full year of 30 basis points and an estimated unfavorable EPS impact of $0.79 in both the third quarter and full year 2018. This transaction will have no impact to our operating cash flow from continuing operations. To summarize, this transaction reduces and de-risks about $1 billion of pension obligation. Lastly, due to other tax improvements, we see a favorable impact to the effective tax rate for the full year of 410 basis points primarily related to various tax planning initiatives and further refinement of the estimated impact of the new tax law passed in December 2017. This has an estimated favorable EPS impact of $0.48 for the full year 2018. To summarize, we now expect our full year 2018 net sales to be in the range of between $26.7 billion and $27.2 billion, up 5% to 7% from 2017. The year-over-year increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. We have lowered our effective tax rate to reflect the discretionary pension plan contribution, pension plan annuity transaction and other tax improvements that I just discussed. We now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 10.5% for the year. We've increased our full-year 2018 EPS by $0.07 from our prior guidance and now expect it to be in a range of $9.77 to $9.97. As discussed, the increase is driven by our improved operational performance in the second quarter, as well as the improvement to the effective tax rate, largely offset by the unfavorable noncash, nonoperating $0.79 impact of the pension plan annuity transaction. Moving to operating cash flow from continuing operations, as a result of the discretionary pension plan contribution discussed earlier, we are updating our 2018 operating cash flow outlook to be between $2.6 billion and $3 billion. Similar to last year, our cash flow profile is more heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter due to the timing of program milestones and collections on some of our larger contracts. It's worth noting that based on the third quarter 2018 $1.25 billion discretionary pension plan contribution, we would expect to see an improvement in operating cash flow from continuing operations in 2019 and 2020. As I sit here today, holding all pension related assumptions from our January call constant, we would expect the gross funding required for the pension to decrease by an estimated $1 billion over 2019 and 2020 combined. I'd also note that the discretionary pension plan contribution and the pension plan annuity transaction will have no impact on our CAS recovery in 2019 and 2020. I would add again, holding all pension-related assumptions from our January call constant, as a result of the two pension transactions we would expect a roughly $100 million favorable net impact to nonoperating pension expense over 2019 and 2020 combined. And as we have done in the past, we will provide a further update to the gross funding required and other pension assumptions on our fourth quarter 2018 call in January. On Page 9, we've provided you with our standard updated 2018 financial outlook, most of which I just discussed. I do want to point out that we tightened our diluted share count to be approximately 287 million shares for 2018. And as you can see on Page 10, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the full-year sales outlook at both Missile Systems and IIS and for the total company to reflect the combination of stronger bookings and sales performance to-date and second half expectations. Now turning to margin, we've increased the range and expect higher full-year operating margin performance for IDS, IIS and SAS. The strong year-to-date results exceeded our prior estimates. We lowered the range of our full-year operating margin guidance for Missiles, driven by the change in program mix and a change in the timing of an expected favorable resolution of a contractual matter. At the business segment level, we continue to see operating margin in a range of 12.5% to 12.7% for the full year. And at the company level, we continue to see total operating margin to be in a range of 17.1% to 17.3% for the full year. Before moving on to Page 11, as I mentioned earlier, we are now raising our full-year 2018 bookings outlook to a range of $28.5 billion to $29.5 billion. This reflects a $1 billion increase to the prior range and is driven by strong demand from our domestic customers, primarily in the classified area. On Page 11 we have provided guidance on how we currently see the third quarter of 2018. We expect our third quarter sales to be in a range of a little under $6.6 billion to $6.7 billion, and we expect EPS from continuing operations for Q3 to be in a range of $1.88 to $1.93, which includes the unfavorable $0.79 impact of the pension plan annuity transaction. For EPS, when modeling the second half effective tax rate, you can think of the third quarter as similar to the second quarter, maybe a bit lower, and the fourth quarter as similar to the first quarter, maybe a bit lower there as well. And for operating cash flow we expect Q3 to be an outflow in a range of $1.07 billion to $870 million. As a reminder, the outflow is due to the third quarter 2018 $1.25 billion discretionary pension plan contribution. Before concluding, I'd like to spend a minute on our capital deployment strategy. As we said on the call in April, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. We remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investment to support our growth, paying a sustainable and competitive dividend, reducing our share count, making targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs and making discretionary contributions to the pension. In summary, if you stand back and look at the quarter, we had strong performance. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher than expected. We increased our full year 2018 sales and EPS outlook for the second time this year and increased our bookings outlook by $1 billion. We took actions to de-risk our pension and remain well-positioned for continued growth. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
Our first question will come from the line of Rob Spingarn, Credit Suisse.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Tom, I wanted to ask you about the DAS win and F-35. It seems the program is constantly looking to lower cost and increase value. The predecessor, the incumbent did a no bid there on the basis at least from their perspective that the value wasn't there. So how do we reconcile that with your win? And are there future opportunities? It sounds like the EW system and maybe the C&I could come up for recompete?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Let me just kind of set the stage here, the system that we offer is a system that's been under development at Raytheon in the last several years, but we have had this DAS product for many years. I think what's different with this EO-DAS solution it's using our latest technology, which is giving us two I would say competitive advantage. One, this new technology gives us significantly higher performance than the technology that was used to develop the original system, which – the technology stake in the ground was back in 2001. So that probably makes a lot of sense that new technology would be a lot better than the old technology. That's one. But the other area that it gives us a significant benefit for is cost. This new technology has allowed us to significantly reduce the cost of these type of products, so we were able to bring to the marketplace a system that had twice the performance and about half the cost of the systems and technology that were developed back in the 2000s. And that's a technology that we've been developing over the years in other product areas such as electronic warfare, ICNIA, radars, and constantly trying to do two things with the technology. One is obviously increase the performance, but at the same time, really try to lower the cost. And I think that's the big difference here.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Doug Harned, Bernstein.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Doug.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Doug.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Can you talk a little bit about Missile Systems. And you took down the margin guidance a little bit. But if you had not had the contractual issue that you described, what would the margin guidance have been? I'm trying to understand how we should think about the long-term margins at Missile Systems which have been quite good. You've got quite a large backlog there, so I would expect it would give you good visibility into what the longer term margin performance should be?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Doug, it's Toby. Let me walk you through that. So we did reduce the margin outlook really based upon two factors. One, we talked about for the quarter good strength in domestic and especially classified volume and that's what drove the bookings outlook for the year. A big portion of that is related to Missiles. So the way to think about the change in the margin for the year, the mix because of higher classified volume is about 20 basis points of the change. And then the balance of it or 30 basis points is related to the timing of what we expect to be a favorable resolution of a contractual matter that we had assumed in the back half of 2018 moving out of the year. I'll just add a little bit of color. I won't get into it in detail or the specifics of it but only to say we're making progress with it. And to put it in the right context, there's no downside to this. This is not a problem. We don't have anything recorded on the books for it. It's only upside to Missiles once that ultimate resolution takes place. So again, it's worth about 30 basis points of margin. So the way you can think of it for the year, we would have adjusted for the mix. So about not quite but close to half of the margin decrease would have still taken place because of the mix. And then going forward as we've talked about in the past, Missiles has it going across all elements of their portfolio. A little bit more heavily here in the near term on the front end with the development work as I just talked about. But they do have a good balance of production work and that's part of what we expect to help drive the margin up in the back half of the year, especially given the strong bookings they saw at the end of 2017 which will be ramping up in the back half here of 2018. So going forward, broad portfolio, good mix of development work, E&D type of work, production work. And we're always focused on trying to drive the margins up the classified work just at times in a good way presents some headwind because as you know that's what develops technology that leads to future production and future franchises.
Operator:
The next question will come from the line of Richard Safran, Buckingham Research.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, Kelsey, good morning. How are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rich.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
So I'd like to ask you a bit more about your comments about those really impressive bookings and the 1.3 book-to-bill in the quarter and also your comment, Tom, about the classified. First off, Tom, I'm not sure I heard but I think you kind of quantified the trend in classified versus unclassified. I think you said they doubled. Was that correct? And I was wondering how you see that trending for the rest of the year and maybe into 2019? And what I'm looking for is to see if classified is going to grow significantly more than unclassified bookings? And then finally here, does – is the general rule that classified contracts come with higher margins than unclassified, does that still hold?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Let me start off. We did have an unprecedented year – quarter relative to classified. And for the second quarter the classified bookings were 31% of our total second quarter bookings but the volume was up year-over-year from Q2 2017 169%. So it's definitely a significant increase in classified bookings. Classified sales in the second quarter were 20% of our total sales and that volume was up over 21% from Q2 2017. So – and so the reason is why? Well, we talked about on the last call that the budget and I talked about it on this call, the budget is up and the modernization budget is up 19% year-over-year. And so we're starting to see the impact of that coming through the bookings line and a lot of it is coming in through the classified area. And the reason it's coming through the classified area is the third element or third bucket that I – terminology I use of the National Defense Strategy is all about catching up with the peer threat. And to catch up with the peer threat significantly new capabilities are required across multiple domains, domains of space, the domains of air and the domain of land surface. And so we are seeing these classified awards come in at a much higher rate than we've had in the past years again due to the 19% increase. Just real quick back, you did state that you thought that the classified program margins were higher than the unclassified. It's actually the reverse. The classified bookings are generally associated with programs that are we call CRAD, contract research and development programs and/or E&D engineering, manufacturing and development programs. Those programs tend to be cost share programs with the government. And because of the cost share nature of the contracts tend to have lower fee structures and resulting margins but the bottom line is those programs are integral to our business model. They are essentially the seed corn for future franchises. And as you know that's one of the strong points of Raytheon is the numerous strong franchises that we have across all domains.
Operator:
The next question is going to come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good morning, everyone and thank you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
I appreciate the commentary on Missile Systems, but can we think about mix with the broader portfolio and how we think about it over the medium term, if you can give us some color there?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, Sheila. It's Toby. I'll start and then if Tom wants to jump in here and add anything he can. So when we talk about mix and we relate it to our programs, we generally think of it, programs with sales volume at either higher or lower from period to period that we're comparing to. And obviously because of those particular programs' margin rate, the profit and the sales volume can weigh in on the business either favorably or unfavorably. Most often it's the mix if you will, between development and production work. And we see that at generally speaking all of our businesses other than IIS isn't dramatically impacted by that. Tom just talked about on the prior question the nature of the classified or the CRAD volume and that really goes across all of our businesses. The cost type work in the near term it does present margin headwinds. Obviously, the contract phase right where we are at any given point in time in the execution of a contract relative to risk retirement, opportunity realization, which is generally as we've talked about in the past more in the middle towards the end of contracts. Again, that goes across all of our businesses. And also domestic versus international, right? The mix and the volume there, primarily more impacting IDS and Missiles, but also to a lesser degree SAS. And I think when you think about it big picture and from a trend point of view, we've talked about how we've been working to incrementally improve our margins. You see that this year with about a – the 12.5% to the 12.7% and 20 basis point increase at the midpoint of the range over last year. We talk about these incremental increases because while the mature part of the portfolio with the production programs, the international programs continues to perform well, in a good way we're seeing some headwinds from more of a mix relative to the classified work. And a lot of that, as Tom just said, ties back to the NDS and where the focus is there, especially in that third bucket that he referred to. So there's a balance there that we're working through. And obviously in Missiles in particular in this quarter they've got a lot more classified cost type work and that trend is continuing through the year.
Operator:
The next question will be from the line of George Shapiro, Shapiro Research.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Hello?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, George.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Hi. I guess pursuing Missiles just a little more, Toby and what you've been saying. To kind of get to the margin range, even though you lowered it, you got to get the Missile margins near 14% in the second half versus 11.4% in the first half.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
So what changes sufficiently in the mix in the second half to get there? And then just on the other side, IDS margin's got to come down pretty significantly in the second half. Now it came down in 2Q, but what changes there to get the margin to come down so? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, sure. Yeah, no. Your math is right, George. At Missiles we do expect a ramp up in the margin in the back half of the year, 13.6% to 14% as you said. There's a couple factors that are driving this. One, on the FEMA mix, that mix turning a little bit more favorable in the back half of the year. We expect higher volume on our production programs compared to the first half. There is some inventory we're expecting to be relieved to a few of our second half higher margin awards that are in our outlook, as well as improved productivity driven by improved operating leverage as the business continues to grow, benefits from factory automation that we've talked about in the past. And then as I mentioned a little bit earlier to Sheila's question, at Missiles we expect some retirement of risk, especially on a few international programs. And it's the combination of all those that would cause us to see the margin ramp up in the back half into the high 13% approaching 14%. On the flip side of the coin at IDS, IDS had another solid quarter, and certainly for the first half a real strong performance. We did increase their outlook by 30 basis points for the year. As we've discussed before, the risk retirement on programs, the quarter in which the risk is retired, is where the retroactive benefit occurs. IDS had risk retired on a few programs both in the second quarter and the first half, and part of that was timing. And we just see the cadence or the pace of that lower than it was in the first half, right? We still expect strong margin performance, roughly around 16%, for the back half of the year, and that's pretty consistent with where their margin was last year, but overall very pleased with the margin performance at IDS.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Sam Pearlstein, Wells Fargo.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I wanted to go back to Missile Systems once again. But just looking at the bookings strength, I guess what I'm trying to understand is really do you think your win rate is increasing? Or is it simply that your products are what's in demand given the current threat environment? Because certainly your missiles competitor is showing similar strength, and I'm just trying to understand how you define market share, whether you're holding your own or just you're in the right place?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
So, Sam, I'll take that upfront. I think it's both, based on when we peel the onion and then look inside. The bottom line is we are winning quite a few programs. This last one was the Naval Strike Missile. Brand new missile franchise for us, which will be a multimillion-dollar franchise moving forward. So that's one example. And on the other side we are also bringing onto production several new or upgraded franchise missiles. One is – we mentioned there was a JSOW C, which is a new variant of JSOW which has a significant demand signal pull in the U.S. and we'll eventually have it in the international marketplace. And we are also completing the development of another missile, the Small Diameter Bomb II, which will be transitioning into full rate production. And that will start to see significant volume and obviously margin increases in the fact that it's in a production type run. So the bottom line is two things are going on. One is we're winning new franchises. And the second thing is we had multiple missiles that were I would call in development and then the final testing stages that are now transitioning from either into LRIP or from LRIP into production. And so we're starting to see larger volume.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And, Sam, I'd just add bigger picture at the company level relative to the competitive win rates, we continue to be very pleased with the performance across the company in all the businesses. Historically we've run in the 70% range give or take and we're seeing similar results so far this year again across all of our business – Missiles included but across all of our businesses, all within that 70% range, so strong performance there.
Operator:
Your next question will be from the line of Jon Raviv, Citi.
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jon.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Toby, can you give us a sense for the – some of the pension decisions that you made in terms of what kind of return metrics do you see? Why did you choose to do the annuity contract now? And then also appreciating that CAS does not change, how do you think about the CAS mechanics sort of beyond 2020? What's it sensitive to and how it might trend over the long term? Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, so let me maybe start with that last part first, Jon, and then I'll come back to the beginning part of your question. So from a CAS point of view, I think the simple way to think of it is that for the next, say, five or six years, the CAS recovery – we expect it to be roughly in line with our 2018 expectation, okay? And then after 2018 we anticipate to have, from an overall pension point of view, positive cash flow out until the 2026 timeframe, right, holding all assumptions constant. So I think very positive news and somewhat predictable as far as the CAS goes. Related to the two pension actions that we took in the quarter, certainly related to the discretionary, we've been talking on and off that we'd been evaluating that. If you recall we put a $1 billion discretionary contribution into the plan at the end of last year. We made this additional contribution decision in June. The contribution's being made in the third quarter in part to leverage the benefit of getting the deduction at the 35% rate on the 2017 tax return. And it helps work relative to the funding of the plan. So that one was kind of straightforward. On the annuity that we enacted here in the quarter, two independent transactions. We just saw an opportunity in the marketplace based upon some other activity to – in a appropriate way, right, that continues to provide benefit security for our pensioners, to de-risk our liability, right, and reduce our liability in a very economical way. We're doing this with a solid insurer. We are continuing to follow our goal of operating our business effectively and this de-risking and reducing the obligation is consistent with that.
Operator:
Your next question will be from the line of Carter Copeland, Melius Research.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Good morning, gentlemen.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Carter.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Just a quick clarification on the pension piece, Toby, not to let you off the hook totally yet. It sounds like the transfer, you get rid of the liability side. What happens to the associated assets with those plans?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
So we – as part of the transfer we funded that with assets out of the plan.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Okay. Okay. That's what I figured. I just wanted to make sure. So you will get – you will lose in the future years the expected returns on those plan assets but you won't have any of the actuarial amortization associated with it?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Correct. Right.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Okay.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
All right. And then just, Tom, briefly. Just because it seems to be on the tip of everybody's tongue. And I know you guys have been particularly growth focused for a while but given that we might actually have budget passage and authorization passage on time for once and folks are looking at higher levels of funding, when you take a step back and just look from a business development standpoint what the opportunity funnel looks like out of there? Is it materially different today than say six months ago? Or nine months ago? Or any color you can provide us on how you're thinking about that. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I'll take it. I think, I would say it's significantly different than over a year ago in terms of demand signal. Demand signal is global. We are seeing significant demand signal in Europe. A lot of that is for deterrence type products like our integrated air missile defense systems, a la the Patriot system. And we're also seeing strong demand in the MENA region. That demand signal is coming in for again defensive type systems, deterrence systems like the Patriot System but also our NASAMS system, seeing significant demand signals for that. And then eventually the THAAD system is going to be – make a inroad into the MENA region also. So we're getting that kind of demand signal. In Asia-Pacific region it's also the whole area of deterrence and that area is demand signals for our Patriot systems and also our standard missiles both in Japan and also in South Korea. And we come back to the U.S. The biggest change in U.S. is the classified. And again that – the element of the third bucket of the National Defense Strategy which is the need for the United States to catch up to our peer threats and the U.S. government is taking that seriously, Congress is taking that seriously and providing the funding required to make that happen. And that is one of the major reasons that our classified bookings have been up significantly this quarter.
Operator:
Your next question will be from the line of Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much, and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I think – I apologize if you guys addressed this. But in IIS as you look forward on the Warfighter FOCUS contract I think you guys recently were selected for one piece of the follow on. And so maybe if you could talk about how that fits into your overall plan for that contract and the coming decline?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, sure, Seth. This is Toby. I'll take a crack at that. So I think we've talked about in the past that the guidance for this year and you can read beyond this year, right are – always assumed that we'd have a planned decline on Warfighter as we transition the program primarily in the second half of this year to new contract vehicles. So again there's no change in the negative way to our guidance range for IIS this year. We were selected as one of three large businesses for the portion of the program called ETSC, which at a high level is related to the international aspect of the program. We're also on one of the five small business set aside teams for that part of the follow on program as well. So between both of those positions we feel we can be very competitive on that future scope. I think it's important when you think of IIS as I talked about in my opening comments, they saw strong growth in the quarter. And for the year, even excluding Warfighter FOCUS, right we are looking at call it mid-single digit growth for the rest of the business between their classified business, their cyber business. As an example, right they're starting to make up for and offset that business. So IIS is more than Warfighter and that's what we're expecting to continue to carry them into the future as well as the portions of Warfighter we continue to execute.
Operator:
Your next question will be from the line of Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes, thank you very much. To maybe follow up on Carter's question, could you update us a little bit on where we stand regarding your opportunities for THAAD and (57:33) in the international arena? And also, given that the president has been pressuring NATO to spend more money and at the same time basically beating them over the head in terms of tariffs, what impact do you expect those two initiatives to have on your business? Are you seeing anything today? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
So maybe I'll take the second part of that relative to the NATO and the tariffs. I mean we're not seeing any impact today nor do we expect the tariffs will have an impact, certainly not a direct impact even when we look forward into the supply chain and if there was any potential concern there. We don't think there's anything of a material point of view. Relative to NATO specifically, Cai, Tom talked about we booked the Romania Patriot order. Just as a update for everybody, the Patriot Poland LOA was signed. We are working towards getting on the first phase of that contract, a little north of $1 billion sometime in 2019. That program is still $5 billion overall with the second phase in 2020. We told you last time around, Sweden had selected Patriot. And we expect them to sign their LOA in the back half of the year contract next year for $1 billion. My whole point there is not seeing anybody backing off of what they were interested in and committed to before, all because they continue to want to have a deterrent against the threat from that perspective. As far as our TPY-2 radars, which are part of the THAAD system, the opportunity in KSA for us is a $3 billion to $4 billion opportunity. We look for the LOA on that to be signed here in the back half of the year with the, potentially an initial award of a few hundred million dollars with the follow on, the majority of it in 2019. There's an opportunity in Qatar for THAAD, again with our early warning with the TPY-2 radar as part of that in the plus or minus $1 billion range, maybe out in the 2020 timeframe. So, strong demand for our products.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
So that's all the time we have today. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter conference call in October.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation vision. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Joyce and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Joyce. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Kelsey. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to take a minute before getting into the details of the first quarter to welcome Kelsey DeBriyn, our new Vice President of Investor Relations. Some of you may already know Kelsey from her time in the investment community. She joined the company in October and we're pleased to have her on the Raytheon team. Welcome, Kelsey. Now turning to our results, Raytheon is off to a strong start in 2018 as we've continued to build on our growth momentum from last year. In the first quarter, sales increased 4.5% and our sales, EPS, and operating cash flow were all better than expected. Bookings were solid and our backlog was up over $2 billion year-over-year. Overall, our growth strategy continues to be well-aligned with the needs of our global customers and we are increasing our sales and EPS guidance for the year. Toby will take you through the quarter's financials in a few minutes. You can see the strong global demand for our integrated air and missile defense systems in our recent progress on international opportunities. At the end of March, Poland signed LOA for Phase 1 with the U.S. government to purchase our combat-proven Patriot air and missile defense system. This paves the way for the U.S. government to begin contract negotiations with Raytheon. We still expect booking for Phase 1 in 2019 and Phase 2 in 2020, making Poland a partner that depends on Patriot to protect its citizens and armed forces. The Phase 1 opportunity for Raytheon is expected to be over $1 billion with the total Raytheon Poland Patriot opportunity to be around $5 billion. And we continue to make progress on an opportunity to provide Qatar additional integrated air and missile defense capabilities. Last week, after the quarter, we signed an MoU with Qatar for a NASAMS system and we expect to receive a booking later this year. Total Raytheon opportunity is expected to be over $2 billion and have direct commercial and foreign military sales components. In the first quarter, we also booked over $550 million on our air-to-air missile, AMRAAM, for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy and international customers. AMRAAM is one of our many franchise missile programs. And within the last six months, we have booked over $1.2 billion in orders for AMRAAM. We expect demand to continue for this advanced capability. In the first quarter, we saw our classified bookings up 18.5%, driven by both domestic and international orders. And our customer-funded research and development or CRAD bookings were up 38% in the quarter. This is important because CRAD, along with our internal research and development or IRAD, funds technology development that is integral to the long-term growth of our new franchises and production awards. Beyond CRAD, we continue to prioritize investing in ourselves to support our long-term growth through CapEx and IRAD. Given our increased spending on both of these in 2018, I thought it would be helpful to take a few minutes to talk about our investments in these areas. In 2018, Raytheon's capital investment is expected to be up more than 50% versus 2017 to support our future growth and productivity initiatives. One area of investment is for demonstration capabilities to position us to win new future franchises and opportunities. A second area of investment is for high technology facilities. For example, to support growth in new classified programs at missiles, we are expanding operations by adding new facilities for people and testing. A final area of investment is for more automation and test equipment to drive efficiencies at our businesses. In 2018, our IRAD is expected to be up 15% versus 2017 as we refresh current franchises and develop new capabilities to ensure that we are well-positioned to win new opportunities. We are prioritizing our investments in areas that are key priorities for our customers such as high energy lasers, high power microwaves, hypersonics, next-generation sensors, and cybersecurity, among others. Drawing on our decades of technology innovation, Raytheon continues to invest in high energy lasers and high power microwaves to develop the most advanced solutions for our customers. In March, during a U.S. Army exercise, 45 unmanned aerial vehicles and drones were engaged and destroyed by Raytheon's advanced high-power microwave and laser. Our solution provides a short-range air defense capability with a low cost per engagement that is much needed by our customer. Another technology we are investing in is hypersonics which is a primary focus area for our customer to address pure threats. Hypersonic systems travel beyond Mach 5 making them harder to hit and this is the next wave of technology relative to advanced missile systems. As a result, we are executing several activities in the areas of hypersonics and counter-hypersonics and we're positioning ourselves to fully capture this growing opportunity. We also continue to invest in next-generation sensor technologies. Over the last few years, we have seen a number of radar wins from our past investments in GaN such as the Three Dimensional Expeditionary Long Range Radar for the U.S. Air Force and the Air and Missile Defense Radar for the U.S. Navy. Both of these represent multibillion dollar franchise opportunities for Raytheon. We're also helping the U.S. Army develop third-generation electro-optical capabilities for combat vehicles. With this technology, soldiers will be able to identify targets with much greater clarity and engage at significantly longer ranges. The investments we are making in our cybersecurity capabilities helped us in last year's DOMino win, one of the largest single cybersecurity contracts. Through this program, Raytheon is working with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to provide cybersecurity for over 100 agencies within the .gov domain. The DOMino win establishes our credibility as the leading cybersecurity company to provide nation-scale technologies in a global market. As you may have seen, we are in the early stages of working with Saudi Aramco and others to provide cybersecurity services and to cyber secure infrastructure throughout the Middle East region. Beyond these technologies, we also continue to invest in several other areas, which include machine learning, undersea capabilities, electronic warfare, space, and C5ISR. Our investments are completely aligned with the priorities identified in the National Defense Strategy which is important given that the new Defense Strategy is already driving the allocation of resources within the Defense Department. The National Defense Strategy seeks to build a more lethal force, strengthen alliances, and reform DoD for greater performance and affordability. As a company, we are committed to helping the Defense Department implement the National Defense Strategy, so that U.S. forces and allies can secure a competitive military advantage. We will do everything we can to help the DoD in its pursuit of urgent change at significant scale. Turning to the U.S. defense budget, we're very encouraged by defense spending growth and pleased as we continue to see bipartisan support for higher spending levels. In March, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 significantly amended upward the BCA caps in fiscal year 2018 and fiscal year 2019 to accommodate the defense budget. And this smooths the path to the fiscal year 2019 appropriations bill. Now only two years remain, fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021, until the effects of the BCA on defense are over. We are confident these caps will again be revised upward. And at the end of March, we were pleased to see Congress pass the fiscal year 2018 defense appropriations bill which included a double-digit increase in modernization funding versus the fiscal year 2017 level. We continue to see Congressional support in areas where Raytheon has strong core capabilities. And starting in 2019, we expect to see meaningful impact from the budget increase. I'd like to close today by recognizing the Raytheon team for all of their hard work and dedication. Together, we successfully navigated a sustained period of budget headwinds in a manner that increased our competitive posture, differentiated our solutions and enabled customer success. Now, with a prospect of budget tailwinds, we stand ready to secure opportunities for future growth by leveraging investments we've made in the company and deploying new transformational technologies. With the team's continued focus and commitment, we plan to take our success and that of our customers to new levels. With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the first quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would turn to page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the first quarter with sales, EPS and operating cash flow better than our expectations. As a result, we're raising our full year outlook for sales and EPS which I'll discuss further in a few minutes. Our sales in the quarter were $6.3 billion, up 4.5%, led by our IDS, IIS and missiles business. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.20, better than our guidance, and an increase of 27.2% year-over-year. I'll give a little more color on this in just a moment. We generated solid operating cash flow of $283 million in the first quarter. Operating cash flow was higher than last year's first quarter, primarily due to favorable collections and lower net cash taxes. During the quarter, the company repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for $400 million. I would add that last month we announced an 8.8% increase in our dividend. This marks the 14th consecutive year of increasing dividends at Raytheon. Turning now to page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the first quarter were $6.3 billion, which were 11% higher than the same period last year. And on a trailing four-quarter basis, our total book-to-bill ratio was 1.11. International awards represented 45% of the total bookings, an increase of approximately 50% over last year's first quarter, primarily due to the $1.6 billion Patriot booking that we previously discussed in January. Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $38.1 billion, an increase of over $2 billion or 5.8% compared to the first quarter 2017. It's worth noting that approximately 42% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. If you now move to page 5, for the first quarter 2018, sales were higher than the high end of the guidance we set in January. Sales were especially strong in IDS. We expect sales for the company to increase throughout the year with the strong second half, driven by our bookings over the past several quarters. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had first quarter net sales of $1.5 billion, up 6.5% compared with the same period last year. The increase from Q1 2017 was primarily driven by higher sales on an international Patriot program that was awarded in the first quarter of 2018. In the first quarter, IIS had net sales of $1.6 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the 5% increase was primarily due to higher net sales on classified and training programs. As we've previously discussed, we expect IIS's growth rate to moderate in the back half of the year due to the planned ramp down and transition of the Warfighter FOCUS program. Missile Systems had net sales of $1.8 billion, up 5% compared with the same period last year. The increase here was also driven by higher net sales on classified programs. We expect the growth rate to be stronger for the balance of the year, starting in the second quarter. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2018, up slightly compared to last year's first quarter. And at Forcepoint, sales were down slightly in the quarter compared with last year's first quarter. Overall, we're pleased with our total company sales which grew 4.5% in the quarter. Moving ahead to page 6. First, as a reminder, in the first quarter of 2018, we adopted the new retirement benefit standard. As a result, all components of FAS pension and postretirement benefit expense, other than service costs, were reclassified from operating income to non-operating income with no impact to net income. The 2017 total company operating margins have been recast to reflect this change. Now let me spend a few minutes talking about our margins in the quarter. We delivered solid margin performance. Our operating margin was 16.6% for the total company, up 80 basis points, and 11.9% on a business segment basis, an increase of 10 basis points. The margin improvement on a segment basis in the first quarter was driven by IDS which benefited from the timing of productivity improvements that were expected later in the year as well as favorable mix versus Q1 2017. Missiles margins were down in the first quarter, as expected, due to a change in program mix. We continue to see improvement in their margin in the back half of the year and for 2018 still expect their margin to be in the 13.1% to 13.3% range. And at Forcepoint, as we discussed on the January call, operating income was negative for the quarter. This is due to an increase in operating cost to support Forcepoint's long-term growth. From a total company point of view, we remain focused on margin improvement going forward and see our business segment margins in the 12.5% to 12.7% range for the full year, consistent with the guidance we laid out in January. We see our margin improving in the back half of the year, driven by favorable program mix and productivity improvements. Turning now to page 7, first quarter 2018 EPF of $2.20 was up 27.2% from last year's first quarter and was better than our expectations. The year-over-year increase was largely driven by higher volume, margin expansion and lower taxes. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2018 to reflect our improved performance today as well as the further refinement of our estimated tax rate under current tax law. We're increasing our full year 2018 net sales range by $100 million which favorably impacts EPS by about $0.05. This increase is driven by higher expected sales at our IDS business. We now expect total company net sales to be in the range of between $26.5 billion and $27 billion, an increase of 4.5% to 6.5% from 2017. We updated our effective tax rate to reflect revised estimates related to the new tax law and various other items which in total is worth about $0.10 to EPS for the full year. We now expect our full year effective tax rate to be approximately 18%. Looking at our EPS guidance, we exceeded the high end of our guidance in the first quarter by $0.19. For the year, due to the first quarter operating performance, as well as the lower tax rate, we are raising our guidance by $0.15. As a result, we now expect our full year EPS to be in a range of $9.70 to $9.90. As I discussed earlier, we repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for $400 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 287 million and 289 million shares for 2018, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program. Operating cash flow in the first quarter was slightly higher than our prior expectations, primarily due to the timing of collections that we had originally expected in the second quarter. We continue to see our full year 2018 operating cash flow outlook to be between $3.6 billion and $4 billion. And although not on the page, it is worth noting that we continue to see our full year 2018 bookings outlook to be between $27.5 billion and $28.5 billion. Turning now to page 9, as you can see, we've included guidance by business which reflects the higher net sales in IDS and for the total company that I mentioned earlier. On page 10, we provided you with our outlook for the second quarter of 2018. As we mentioned on our last call, excluding the impact of tax reform in the fourth quarter of 2017, we still expect the cadence for the balance of 2018 to play out similar to 2017. We see sales, EPS and operating cash flow ramping up in the second half of the year. I want to point out that we expect second quarter sales to be in a range of approximately $6.4 billion to $6.5 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $2.23 to $2.28. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $350 million to $550 million. Before concluding, I'd like to spend a minute on our capital deployment strategy. As we said on the call in January, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet that provides us with financial flexibility. We remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth, paying a sustainable and competitive dividend, reducing our share count, making targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs, and making discretionary contributions to the pension. In summary, our performance in the first quarter provides a solid foundation for the balance of 2018. Our bookings were strong. Sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher than the guidance we set in January and we increased our full year 2018 outlook for sales and EPS. We remain well-positioned for continued growth. With that, Tom and I will now open the call up for questions.
Operator:
The first question will come from the line of Carter Copeland with Melius Research. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Carter. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Carter. Thanks.
Carter Copeland - Melius Research LLC:
Tom, I wondered if you could give us an update a little bit on hypersonics. I know you mentioned it in your prepared remarks but clearly this is getting a lot more emphasis inside the building. And I noted one of your competitors got a big award last week and just wondered if you could just give us an update on the handful of initiatives or programs you've got there and what the opportunity is and how that's unfolding. Just an update would be really helpful. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Thank you, Carter. As we discussed in the past and as I talked about a little bit in my script today, hypersonics is an area that we continue to invest in for future growth. Now we are working multiple hypersonic programs today both – I would call them CRAD type contracts. Hypersonic area right now is really focused on demonstrating advanced technologies that will then be used to go into engineering, manufacturing and development programs in the future. And I can tell you we're heavily involved in many of these type of programs all the way from the hypersonic air-breathing weapons type concept which is with the DARPA program and also in several other areas, including some ground-based hypersonic systems. The other area of the hypersonic equation is the counter hypersonics which is also a big area and we are involved with that with several of our existing systems, improvements to those, but also in some new advanced counter hypersonic missiles. So bottom line is we continue to make solid progress in our hypersonic pursuits and we will continue to invest in that technology and invest to continue to put assets in place to support the contracts we have in those areas.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Rob Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
I just wanted to get a clarification from Toby. And then I had a question on IDS margins. Toby, just curious why the cash flow guidance didn't rise at all here with the fundamental improvement in sales, et cetera. We've seen this trend all week from some of your peers. Just wondering if there's something at play there. And then on the IDS margins, for the back end of the year, what are the headwinds that we see there? Why didn't this translate – this strength in the first quarter translate into slightly higher guide on those margins?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Sure. So I'll start with your first question on cash flow. And I'll point to maybe two or three things here to maybe help folks understand, right. So we're pleased with the performance in the quarter, right, about $83 million above the high end of our guidance. We had some favorable timing of collections moving from Q2 to Q1. Keep in mind this performance in the first quarter is on top of our record-setting cash flow performance in 2017 where in Q4 we beat our expectations by about $800 million. And then coming off of that, we set guidance this year. Last year we were – prior to our discretionary pension, our cash flow was a little over $3.7 billion and the range we set this year was $3.6 billion to $4 billion, right. So we didn't drop it down, if you will, for the $800 million improvement we saw late last year. And then the other thing I'll just bring back here. In January on our fourth quarter call, we showed a three-year look at cash flow that rough numbers was about $2 billion better than our previous expectations. And we're still on track for that. So, overall, the cash flow remains very strong. As I mentioned earlier, it's a little more biased, as we've seen in the past, towards the back half of the year. And then the last point I'll make. If you look at the sales improvement, the flow-through of the margin on that and the change in the tax rate, all else equal, that's plus or minus $40 million and we have a pretty significant range of $3.6 billion to $4 billion. So the other way to think of it is it's considered in that range already. But I would tell you the takeaway here. Cash flow remains a key focus and we're really pleased with our Q1 performance and the outlook for the year. Shifting to IDS and IDS's margins, obviously, they had a real strong quarter and a great start to the year. Rob, to your point, they were at 18.3% which quite frankly was about 200 basis points higher than our expectations. What we saw in Q1 was some favorable timing of program improvements. And I think, as everybody knows, we've discussed in the past, programs retire risk. We take the benefit in the quarter when that occurs and there is the retroactive adjustments. And IDS did retire risks on a couple of programs earlier than expected, increasing the Q1 margin and reducing the expected margin for the balance of the year compared to what we were looking at back in January. We do still see IDS margins, to your point, of 16.4% to 16.6% on $100 million in higher volume as we showed in the updated guidance. And because of that, the IDS margins for the balance of the year will probably be in the range of around 16%, give or take. So 18.3% is a pretty strong quarter across the industry, never mind within the company. We're pleased with it and we're pleased with the outlook for the year at IDS.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Tom, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about sort of the longer-term outlook and the big plus-up in the budget that we got, especially for the investment account, should be fueling very healthy outlay growth for the next three years or so. And so probably coming into the year, you guys grew about 5% in 2017. You're forecasting 5% to 6% this year. When we put the domestic together with the international, can we think about acceleration in the out-years?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Let me take your first question first. Bottom line is the fiscal year 2018 appropriations bill did get several plus ups to many of our programs. I'll give you some examples. Patriot program had a plus-up of $40 million. The SM-3 IB program had a plus-up of $108 million. SM-3 Block IIA was about $111 million. The Javelin was up $142 million, Excalibur $150 million. I can go on and on, but significant plus-ups across many of our programs out of that appropriations bill. We expect to see some of those bookings in 2018 and we expect to see the impact of sales in 2019 and beyond. So some very good clear projections out in terms of transparency into our ability to grow in 2019 and beyond, just based on what we're seeing in plus ups on the FY 2018 appropriations bill. So the other one is this overall modernization surge and where it's going. And I think the bottom line is we can see continued uptick in the defense budget. The fight-up associated with the fiscal year 2018 budget shows growth beyond 2018, obviously, into 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. So we're seeing some clear demand signals from the customer. I think the biggest area that we're seeing the uptick in, because – and it's actually called out in the National Defense Strategy and the Department is putting money behind the National Defense Strategy, is in the area of coming up with new technologies to be able to counter what they're calling the peer threat. The fact that we've been in 17 years head down fighting wars of counterinsurgency and had not really been pushing new advanced technology areas. So we're – for example, our classified bookings were 16% of our total Q1 2018 bookings and that was up 18% from Q1 2017 and our classified sales were 19% of our Q1 2018 sales, and that was up 9.6% from Q1 2017. So we're getting strong signals from the Department that this is an important area. We are fully behind it. I talked about it in my script relative to the investments we're making. We're seeing these growth activities across all of those technology areas. We're in the right place at the right time. So bottom line is we have a good projection and transparency here over the next several years for growth.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please proceed.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Doug.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I wanted to turn to IIS. This is a business that's had – I mean, it's had virtually no growth for the last three years. And if we take the midpoint of your guidance for 2018, it's still the case in 2018. And I understand the Warfighter FOCUS Program decline, that's an important part. But the Q1 backlog – it's about where it was in each of the last two years for Q1. So given that this is a short cycle business, I would think it can turn very quickly, and we're certainly seeing interest in the space, such as the GD CSRA deal. So my question is, are we in a turning point where we should expect to see growth in IIS at a rate comparable to the budget growth rate, or should we expect the mix here to just be a slower growth business? How do you look at this over the next few years?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Doug, let me start and then if Tom has anything to add, he can jump in and maybe address your question in a couple points because you raised a few things that are – you are spot on, and I'll elaborate a little bit. So you mentioned IIS generally a book in turn type of business and reference where their backlog is. So one thing that I'll point out here is towards the middle of last year we started to see some shifts – I think they're somewhat temporary, but we have seen some shifts in the mix of programs at IIS moving away from that quick turn work that you referred to, and in a couple cases, to some longer duration programs that were rather large, especially for IIS. So, the backlog has grown, but with a little bit of a higher percentage of that towards the longer duration mix and that is affecting the conversion cycle here in the near-term in 2018. Your other point, you're right and we have talked about it with Warfighter FOCUS between the competitions and just the natural program plan where there was going to be a natural ramp down in that in the back half of this year. That, as we've said before, is a couple hundred to $0.25 billion impact in IIS revenue in the quarter. And excluding that, because of their efforts in other areas around classified, cyberspace, et cetera, excluding Warfighter, we would be seeing growth this year in the 3% to 5% range. So I think you are seeing some benefit from the focus on services that IDS has seen and it's being masked a bit by the Warfighter conversion as well as a mix change in their backlog.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes. Doug, just to jump in on that. Two areas that we're seeing a strong pipeline for IIS in the coming year is one of them is ground-based space control really being driven by the issue relative to contested space. And the other area for a strong pipeline is government cybersecurity and then also including strong government international cybersecurity business. And we are seeing those two areas starting to pick up and assume that they will be seeing growth here in the out-years in those two big areas.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jon Raviv with Citi. Please proceed.
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jon.
Jon Raviv - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Can you talk us through a little bit just on the Missile Systems margin and IDS margin? I'm just trying to think about those in the context of – we know IDS went through some mix shifts a few years ago and we're now ramping up there. Can you describe a little bit more is MS in a similar spot right now where there is this opportunity to pick up on mix going forward from your – as implied by guidance, but also out into the future?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes. So, if you have – and I understand the comparison to IDS. I think maybe a little bit of a follow on to Rob's question, I would point out that IDS – the margin profile there is playing out, I think, pretty much as we had expected or predicted over the last couple years, given the shift that you referred to when we talked about and again strong start for the year for IDS and real pleased with their outlook for the year as well. What I would tell you on Missile's margins, I think, as I alluded to briefly, their Q1 margin lower than last year's Q1 but we were expecting that and the mix is what's driving it. We do expect this year that Missile's margins will grow sequentially, a bit more pronounced in the second half, aligned with some higher production volumes and the timing of expected program efficiencies related to risk reduction and risk retirement. On the prior call, we had talked about higher CRAD in classified sales in 2018 impacting Missile's margins. And this is what we're really seeing early on in Q1. We've also talked about Missiles has, I think, within the company, from my perspective, the broadest and most balanced portfolio with programs at all end of the spectrum from early-stage CRAD-type of work into TMRR phases, into EMD low rate production, mature production, some international. And really, it's going to be the ebb and flow between those categories that drives it. But, again, we expect improved margins this year. And keep in mind that this mix that in Q1 was a margin headwind because of the nature of it, the CRAD work, that's the type of programs that lead to future franchises, ties back to some of Tom's comments around hypersonics as example. So, overall, we're pleased with the Missile's portfolio and, again, would expect to see margins improving through the balance of the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes, a couple of quick ones, Toby. I try and pin you down in IDS, so was there EAC benefit of $20 million to $30 million because of retirement of risk on some prior ending programs as you've alluded to?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
We did see some EAC benefits that we were expecting later in the year, George, right, where we did retire risk and that risk was retired in the first quarter versus beyond that. And, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, they had some favorable mix due to the international component of their business that also contributed to the margin performance in the quarter, so a combination of both.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hey, Pete.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Tom, can you update us on the status of the Navy over-the-horizon missile program. I think you guys were waiting to get an approved budget to maybe begin an award announcement there. So maybe just an update and maybe quantify it.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, just to make sure just to quantify for everyone who is listening. This is a program where, Raytheon and Kongsberg, as a team, we submitted a proposal for something what's called – we called The Naval Strike Missile, which is the Navy's over-the-horizon weapon system that they need to put on the LCS, but turns out they're also going to put them on all the Future Frigates. We think we're in a very good position there. We have a system that requires minimum development essentially to develop systems, some small changes we'll make, but can go into production very quickly, which is something the United States Navy needs. We are anticipating an award here in Q2 with significant more funds placed against it in the fiscal year 2019 budget to move forward with that program.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the investments you said you were making. You talked about the IRAD growth of 15% this year, but it looks relatively flat this year. So I'm just wondering can you play off CRAD versus IRAD and shift it around as one growth and move it as that part of the timing as we go through the year. And related, the CapEx seemed relatively high in the quarter, just given that you usually have a back-end loaded CapEx. So I just want to make sure you're still on track for the same level of CapEx.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes. Sam, let me give you kind of the top level here. The IRAD – and, obviously, we'll use the IRAD to give us the technologies to go capture the CRAD. We'll use the CRAD to go capture the development programs and we capture development programs, so we can have the production programs. So the IRAD is kind of the initial fuel for the engine to kind of get us going. And you're absolutely correct. Once we win the CRAD we'll redirect the IRAD to other opportunities, to be able to pick up more CRAD in other areas. And that's just the nature of the game that we play to win with. The bottom line is, is we are focusing and we have been focusing on several years in what I would consider the key areas, especially that are being called out in the National Defense Strategy. And, again, what's key about that is that's where the Department is going to be focusing its money relative to next-generation capabilities. And I can tell you we are 100% aligned with those areas. We are again using the IRAD to give us the start to fuel in our engines to go capture CRAD and so forth up the line. In area of the capital, we are up this year in capital. We did mention that in the discussions, up about 50%. Those areas – again, there are some demand signals based on new work at missile companies to be able to support that in terms of facilities and test equipment, which is going meaningful but also in other areas that support our overall growth. And I'll hand it over to Toby for some more details.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So I'll address, Sam, I guess, the cadence of both the IR&D and the capital. So, on the IR&D, we haven't changed our outlook. We still expect roughly that 15% growth. You're right. The spend in Q1 was a little light from a linear point of view. But we do expect that to ramp up sequentially through the balance of the year. Similarly, on the CapEx and software spend, still same outlook, $910 million to $950 million for the year. I think the CapEx was about $220 million, $221 million and another $10 million or $12 million in software in Q1, so 230-ish million. So not linear but think of it as equal for the balance of the year maybe with a little bit of a bias towards a little bit higher spending in the back half relative to the capital.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks very much. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hey, Rob.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob. How are you doing?
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good. Thanks. Tom, I guess, a question for you. The administration has been changing up the export rules. And I was wondering if there might be some benefit here for Raytheon, particularly as it seems to be shifting a little bit away from FMS towards more commercial sales and whether some of your products could benefit from that? Thank you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Rob, thanks for that. By the way, any effort by the administration to improve this regulatory process relative to foreign sales on defense items is very welcome, obviously, by us and also by our industry. I can tell you it has been extremely helpful. This administration from day one has been very supportive of international weapon sales, which has helped us. And you can see our international has been up here over the last year, and a lot of it's driven by the support of the administration. I think this is a next step by the administration to even press forward to support more weapon sales internationally. And one of the key areas here is not just to support sales for jobs to improve industry, but it's also being used by the Department of Defense to gain collaboration with different countries. So when they go and have to go to fight, they're able to be interoperable with these other countries. So they want these other countries to be using – our coalition partners to be using U.S.-based weapon systems, so, again, that they can be interoperable and support. And the administration is behind that now. This is one way of doing it. They just reduced some of the fees they charge on FMS but are also leaning forward on direct commercial sales, which obviously is our preferred approach, especially relative to margin perspective.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sheila. How are you doing?
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Good. Thank you. You mentioned contested space earlier. Maybe if you could discuss some of the larger pursuits and opportunities in space and some of the investments you're making in that arena.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I'll cover that pretty lightly. And the reason is, once I get beyond the words contested space, things get classified pretty quickly. We are supporting in all elements of space relative to topic. I mentioned IIS heavily involved in the area of space control, especially in ground stations and ensuring our ability to have a resilient and reliable space control capability. And then also, obviously, in space arena itself, our ability to have very good sensors that go on these satellites to help again support resiliency and also getting those sensors down to a size where we don't lose the performance, but we still have the capability, so that they can go on smaller satellites, small sats and also medium-sized satellites, so there's a lot of our work in that area. And that's about as far as I can go relative to the area of contested space.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Noah.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Noah. How are you doing?
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
I'm doing well. How are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
We're doing pretty good.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Can you guys get me set on Warfighter? How much revenue is it when you exit 2018? And I imagine with the Army TADSS piece being protested, I guess you're not losing any of that out of 2018. But in the scenario where that goes against you, what happens to Warfighter from that in 2019? And then I guess any commentary on what you expect from the other two pieces. And then a question on a different program going the other way. The EO DAS on F-35 win that you had, can you walk us through what happened, what transpired on that win and what the terms of trade are like with the customer there?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
So, Noah, this is Toby. I'll start with the Warfighter question. So I think you alluded to this, but within the current guidance for 2018 – and I think I mentioned this a little bit in the prepared remarks, right. We always assumed a decline in the Warfighter related activities because of the program plan and the transition in the second half to the new contract vehicles regardless of whether we were to win them or somebody else was. So to that point, the current situation on ATMP doesn't change the outlook for IIS for the year. It is being broken, to your point, into separate contract vehicles, one of them, ATMP, being the first one in the queue. Over the longer-term, the ATMP effort only represents a part of the scope being performed under the Warfighter contract vehicle. And we do still feel good about our competitive position on the other pursuits, both of which, ETSC and HTSC, are going through the procurement process. And the current customer's outlook is for award midyear in June-ish timeframe. As you said on ATMP, it's in protest. We feel we provided very competitively priced bid there. But at the same time, we weren't willing to make any type of significant investments ourselves to participate in that program. And I talked about this earlier, but I think it's important to reinforce it, advance of this, right. The IIS business has been working on growth in a number of other areas, including cyberspace as well as international, which we believe will allow them to continue to grow into the future regardless of the outcome of the Warfighter program. And keep in mind Warfighter, right, it's been about a $10 billion, $11 billion program, call it, $1 billion a year. As we mentioned, we saw about a 25% ramp down in the plan for 2018. And these follow-on efforts in total are only about half the size of the current Warfighter program albeit over a little bit shorter period of performance, about seven years on average. So, anyway you look at it Warfighter was going to ramp down and that's why we've been working with the – the IIS business has been working to look to grow in other areas.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
And, Noah, then on your second question on F-35 EO DAS, unfortunately, I'm going to have to refer you to Lockheed for any discussions on that topic. I can tell you though that EO DAS is a product line that we have. It's a great product line, especially for the rotorcraft market as well as aircraft like the F-35. So it is a technology that we have been developing over the years and have multiple contracts in that area.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Cai?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I think we dropped Cai.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Cai, I don't know if you are on mute?
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Let's move to the next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Richard Safran from Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, Kelsey, good morning. How are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Richard. How are you doing?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Very well, thanks. Okay. You know what I'm going to try again on asking about cash flow here, but a little bit of a different perspective here. Tom, in your remarks, you commented about a few programs being plused up, your munitions programs again focused on 2018. What I'd like to ask is more of a long-term trend here because for some time the Pentagon has been talking about a dire need for munitions restocking which goes right to the core of your business. And I would think that the recent op tempo, that might be getting some renewed focus. So I thought maybe you could discuss a bit more about your longer-term acquisition transfer munitions programs, beyond just AMRAAM, (54:02), Sidewinder, TLAM, et cetera. And is this plus-up more part of a longer-term trend than just a plus up in 2018? And if we factor that in with the better-than-expected numbers in the FY 2019 appropriations, does this imply possibly upside to your $7 billion to $8 billion long-term cash guide for 2019 to 2020. Or at the very least, does it cause you to lean towards the high end of the range?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So, Richard, it's a good question. So let me start with I would call the missiles or munitions tempo. And the missile has seen some significant growth here leading up to 2018. I did mention all the plus ups that are in the FY 2018 appropriations. Again, a lot of them relative to missiles, so you see the uptick there but from all the words from Secretary Mattis is that 2019 will just be a start relative to the readiness refreshment area relative to munitions. So 2019 will be the start. And now you can see we've been having significant uptick here in 2017, 2018, but he's calling 2019 as the start with the majority of the uptick occurring in 2020, so fiscal year 2020. And then obviously our cycle on weapons and munitions is normally 18 months to two years, so that's going to take us 2019, 2020, 2021, again, providing a strong base of production and that the missile company there. And then, obviously, beyond that, the goal of the military is not to fall back into the problems they had before by not keeping themselves in a readiness state. So we see the missile business as being a very strong business relative to production. Toby just talked all about all of the CRAD, new activities we're getting, the fact that we've had to hire over 1,000 folks here in the last year or so, put buildings in place. There's a ton of work going on in the missile company and we see that as being a strong company here over the next five years. And then Toby will talk a little bit more about the cash...
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Sure.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Relative to cash.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I think – and you mentioned it, Richard, right, we gave a three-year look, 2017 through 2019. And I think you just heard Tom say in his current remarks in a little bit earlier, everything is pointing directionally good news, more spending. The timing is really what's going to dictate – the timing of those awards coming in is going to dictate how it's going to affect our top and bottom line. So I am not saying no to your question about, is there more upside? It's just too early to tell depending upon the timing as the money works its way through the system here in 2018 and then as the appropriations are done on 2019 how that will affect us. So we'll provide an update, obviously, later in the year or going into 2019, a new look out going forward.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Joyce, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please proceed.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hey. Thanks. Good morning, Tom and Toby. Nice quarter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Tom, just a quick one on just – congrats on the Small Diameter II progress you have made. Can you remind us just how to think about the production profile of that program? It seems like that's another nice growth opportunity for you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, I mean, it is. And we just had some successful testing throughout 2017 (57:32), so we just completed the development testing and not it's running into operational testing. But we also have in addition our Small Diameter Bomb II Lot 1 production assets have been completed and they've been delivered. And our Lot 2 is on track to complete all its deliveries on schedule some time here in late – the summer of 2018. Bottom line is this is a great new capability and the one main reason is that they can do – it's not only precision munitions, but it can also attack moving targets. So it's a very unique capability. It has something called a tri-mode seeker on it – technology, but that technology, tri-mode seeker, even though it's a very sophisticated technology, it's also at a very affordable price. And we see this Small Diameter Bomb as the future in terms of munitions. Number one, the reason for the small diameter aspect of it is you can fit multiple of them inside carriage, which is a requirement for stealth on an aircraft like the F-35. And so we see this as being a very attractive munition for the future and we already have a foreign military sales into Australia for the system, obviously, compatible on day one with the F-35. So everywhere F-35 goes into international market, Small Diameter Bomb II will also go.
Kelsey Ann DeBriyn - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter conference call in July.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Vice President of Investor Relations Tom Kennedy - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Toby O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company Robert Spingarn - Credit Suisse Doug Harned - Bernstein Richard Safran - Buckingham Research Carter Copemann - Millius Research Pete Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton Sam Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities Robert Stallard - Vertical Research George Shapiro - Shapiro Research Peter Arment - Baird
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Raytheon Q4 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Joyce, and I will be the moderator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay proposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd Ernst:
Thank you, Joyce. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we’ll reference are available on our Web site at raytheon.com. Following this morning’s call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I’d like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the Company’s future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the Company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon had another great year of performance in 2017, and our growth strategy continue to deliver results for our shareholders and customers. Sales were up 8% in the fourth quarter and 5.1% for the full year, and we set a new company record for annual sales of $25.3 billion. We continue to see strong global demand for our innovative solutions, illustrated by our book to bill ratio of 1.26 in the fourth quarter and 1.09 in the year. This drove an increase in backlog of $1.5 billion year-over-year and positions us for a strong 2018. EPS exceeded our expectations in the fourth quarter and for the full year after adjusting for the impact of tax reform and our discretionary pension contributions. We continue to drive strong cash flow and I was pleased with our better than expected cash in the quarter and full year. This allow us to make a significant discretionary contribution to the pension of $1 billion. Toby will review additional details about the fourth quarter and 2018 guidance in a few minutes. Our international business continue to be strong. 2017 marked the 14 consecutive year of international sales growth for the company with sales up 8.4% in the fourth quarter and 6.2% for the full year. In fact, Raytheon achieve record international sales of over $8 billion for the full year, which represents approximately 32% of sales. Our differentiated international strategy is working, and we are encouraged by the broad based demand we are seeing across Europe, Asia Pacific and MENA for our advance capabilities. In Europe, we are pleased to see the commitment or plans in place for NATO countries to meet their obligation to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. Also, in early November, Sweden announced that it selected our combat proven Patriot Air and missile defense system capability. Sweden is expected to sign an LOA in mid 2018, which is an approximate $1 billion opportunity. And in late November Romania signed an LOA with the U. S. government to purchase Patriot, which paves the way for the U. S. government to begin contract negotiations with Raytheon. We would expect the booking in 2018, making Romania the 14th country to depend on Patriot to protect its citizens and armed forces. And we continue to make progress with Poland and another European country on their acquisition of Patriot capabilities. We also continue to see strong Patriot demand from existing customers. After the quarter, in early January, we booked a new direct commercial contract for Patriot capabilities worth over $1.5 billion. In the Asia-Pacific, Japan is set to expand its ballistic missile defense capabilities. On December 19th, Prime Minister Abe Cabinet approved the procurement of two land based Aegis Ashore missile defense systems, and a budget is up for approval that includes funding for standard missile family, including SM2, SM3 Block 1B, SM3 Block 2A and SM6. The budget also includes funding for AMRAAM and AIM-9X missiles. Turning to the Middle East. In December, I was in the United Arab Emirates to help Raytheon mark its 30th anniversary of our partnership with the nation. At that time, we announced the formation of a new wholly-owned subsidiary, called Raytheon Emirates, which is incorporated and headquartered in Abu Dhabi. Through this agreement Raytheon is committed to helping the UAE achieve its economic goals, while providing trusted innovative solutions that support the nation's defense and security requirements. Also last year, Raytheon announced a similar agreement in Saudi Arabia where we have been doing business for over 50 years. Although, both of these subsidiaries are in the early stages, they demonstrate Raytheon's differentiated international strategy. Turning to our domestic business. We saw an acceleration in growth in 2017. Domestic sales were up 7.9% in the fourth quarter and 4.6% for the full year. And we expect our domestic growth to continue to be strong in the future as our domestic book to bill ratio in 2017 was 1.11. Our IIS segment, which has the highest percentage of domestic business, grew its backlog almost 15% in 2017. For the Company, key domestic bookings in the quarter were for AMRAAM, Tomahawk, Warfighter FOCUS, Domino and a classified program at missiles. Looking to 2018 and beyond, we see continued growth and strong demand signals in the areas of counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism, Deterrence and response to peer nation threats. While we touched on this areas on past calls, I'd like to spend a few minutes today discussing trends we are seeing in each area and the ways in which these trends continue to positively impact our growth. First, the counter-insurgency counter-terrorism area, is driving a significant demand for precision weapons in ISR assets across the globe. A good example of that demand can be seen in our missile business, which grew bookings in the fourth quarter 23% year-over-year, mainly driven by an increase in precision weapon contracts. In 2018, we expect this demand to continue across a number of our missile franchises. The second area with strong demand signals is Deterrence, where our customers are focused on deploying technologies and solutions that can deter a threat from taking action. This area continues to drive strong demand for integrated air and missile defense capabilities. We've seen Deterrence demand grow in Europe where nations are concerned about protecting their sovereignty and are looking to our Patriot Air and missile defense system to provide advanced Deterrence s capabilities. And as I mentioned, in 2017, we saw demand for Patriot from Sweden, Romania, Poland and another European country. Beyond Europe, Deterrence is also getting additional growth opportunities for our systems in Japan and the Middle-East. Lastly, countering pure nation threats with advanced technologies is a rapidly developing growth area for Raytheon, especially in our classified business. Peer nations are working to close the gap with U.S. capabilities, which is driving strong demand from our U.S. customers. Demand that resulted and a new company record for classified sales in 2017. Looking ahead, our next generation solutions and technologies, such as the Long Range Standoff, the Long-Range Precision Fires, high energy lasers and hypersonics will continue to fuel growth in this area as he U.S. looks to maintain its operational and technical dominance. Turning to Washington. Last week, Secretary of Defense, Mattis, released a national defense strategy. The strategy is subtitled, sharpening the American militaries competitive edge summarizes his intent clearly. Secretary Mattis calls for urgent change, a significant scale to content with the high end threats that are directly characterized as essential challenge to U.S. prosperity and security. Investment priorities are clearly articulated as is the need for accelerating defense exports to improve interoperability between U.S. and allie forces. Providing sophisticated capabilities to our customers is essential to the growth strategy Raytheon has been executing. Our current capabilities and investments are aligned with secretary Mattis’ modernization priorities and we look forward to helping the defense department execute its strategy at the speed of relevance as secretary Mattis says. For the U.S. defense budget, we continue to see strong congregational backing for missile defense, cyber and other areas where Raytheon has a leadership position. And we remain optimistic that congress will pass a fiscal year '18 budget that provides our military the resources, technology and training necessary to protect United States and support our allies. This strong growth environment creates the benefit of a strong jobs environment. And in 2017, we added over 1,000 new jobs to our payroll. These are noble jobs, rewarding, good paying jobs that allow our employees to buy homes, raise families and save for retirement, all while serving a lager purpose of helping to make the world a safer place. The demand signals we see in our key growth areas, combined with the implementation of tax reform making us more globally competitive, creates a positive environment for continued business and jobs growth, going forward. In summary, 2017 was another great year for Raytheon. For that, I want to thank all of the members of the Raytheon team worldwide. They keep raising the bar on our performance and they are passionate about engineering a safer world with the innovative solutions we provide for our customers. I couldn’t ask for a better team. And let me turn the call over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the fourth quarter and full year results. Then I'll discuss our outlook for 2018. After that, we’ll open up the call for questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the Web slides that we issued earlier this morning, which are posted on our Web site. Okay, would everyone please turn to page three? We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in both the fourth quarter and the full year. We have strong bookings in the fourth quarter at $8.5 billion, resulting in a book to bill ratio of 1.26. And for the year, we had bookings of $27.7 billion, with backlog up 4%. This sets the stage for continued growth in 2018, which I’ll discuss in more detail in just a few minutes. Sales were $6.8 billion in the quarter, up 8% from the same period last year. We saw growth across all of our businesses. For the year, sales were up 5.1%, reaching a new company record of $25.3 billion. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.35 for the quarter and $6.94 for the full year. I will give a little more color on EPS in a few minutes, including the impact from both tax reform and the discretionary pension contribution. We also generated strong operating cash flow of $1.6 billion for the quarter and $2.7 billion for the year, which included the $1 billion pre-tax discretionary pension contribution that was not in our prior guidance. It’s worth noting that excluding this discretionary pension contribution, we exceeded our operating cash flow guidance by approximately $800 million at the midpoint and achieved a new company record for operating cash flow. Additionally, during the quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 540,000 shares of common stock for a $100 million, bringing the full year 2017 repurchase to 4.9 million shares for about $800 million. We reduced our share count in 2017 by 2%. Also, as we previously announced in November 2017, our Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $2 billion of the Company’s outstanding stock. The Company ended the year with a solid balance sheet and net debt of approximately $1.7 billion, which provides us financial flexibility for the future. Turning now to page four. Let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full year results. As I mentioned earlier, we had strong bookings of $8.5 billion in the quarter and $27.7 billion for the full year, resulting in the year-end backlog of $38.2 billion. This is an increase of $1.5 billion over year-end 2016 and provides us with the solid foundation for 2018. Worth noting that both Missile Systems and IIS had outstanding bookings performance for the full year 2017, up 23% and 19% respectively. For the quarter, international orders represented 40% of our total company bookings and for the full year, were 31% of total bookings. At the end of 2017, approximately 40% of our backlog was international. Turning now to page five. We had fourth quarter sales of $6.8 billion, an increase of 8% compared with 2016’s fourth quarter and in line with our prior expectations. As Tom just mentioned, international sales continue to be strong, representing 32% of our total sales for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2017. So looking at the businesses, IDS had net sales of $1.6 billion in the quarter, up 6% from the same period last year, primarily due to higher net sales on an international early warning radar program. IIS had net sales of $1.6 billion in Q4. The increase was primarily driven by higher net sales on a U. S. Air Force program and classified programs. Net sales at missile systems in the fourth quarter were $2.2 billion, up 15% compared with the same period last year. This increase was primarily driven by higher net sales on AMRAAM, SM-3 and Paveway. As I said net sales of $1.7 billion in Q4, the increase was primarily driven by higher net sales on airborne radar programs. And at Forcepoint, we saw 9% growth. For the full year, total company sales were $25.3 billion, up 5.1% over full year 2016, both our international and domestic businesses contributed to the sales growth. Moving ahead to page six. We delivered solid operational performance in the quarter. And as expected. at the total company segment level, margins in the fourth quarter were impacted by the timing of productivity improvements we recognized earlier in the year and program mix. Turning to page seven. We had strong solid operating margin performance for the year. Total company segment margins were 12.4%. It's worth noting that the impact of the gain from the TRS transaction in 2016 that we’ve discussed in the past was worth about 70 basis points at the company level. Excluding this gain, our margins in 2017 were slightly higher year-over-year. On page eight, you'll see both the fourth quarter and full year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2017, our EPS was $1.35 and for the full year, it was $6.94. We had solid operating performance from both the quarter and full year. Both were impacted by a couple of notable items that I wanted to spend a minute talking about. First, the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had an unfavorable $171 million or $0.59 provisional tax related impact. This related to the re-measurement of our net deferred tax assets, as well as a one-time transition tax on foreign earnings. This resulted in a 550 basis point increase to our full year 2017 tax rate. Note this is a preliminary estimate and we will finalize the number by the end of 2018. And second, as a result of the $1 billion pre-tax discretionary pension plan contribution that we made in the fourth quarter of 2017, there was an unfavorable tax related impact of $0.09 because the contribution lowered the benefit of our domestic manufacturing tax deduction. This lowered EPS and was not included in our prior guidance. Turning now to page nine. Before moving on to our 2018 guidance, it's important to note as we discussed on our third quarter call that effective January 1, 2018, we adopted a new retirement benefit standard, ASU 2017-07, which moves all components of the FAS pension and post retirement benefit expense except for FAS service cost from operating to non-operating income. The adoption of the new standard has no impact on our net sales, EPS or operating cash flow. It affects our reported operating income as you'll see in the recaps numbers. To assist you with your modeling and for comparison purposes, we provided the recast data for 2016 and 2017 and the attachments at the end of the earnings release. Now looking at our 2018 guidance on page nine. We see sales in the range of between $26.4 billion and $26.9 billion, up 4% to 6% from 2017, which is better than our initial outlook that we provided in October. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international businesses. Our 2018 outlook for the defered revenue adjustment is $10 million and for the amortization of acquired intangibles, is $118 million. As for pension, we see the 2018 FAS/CAS operating adjustment at approximately $1.4 billion of income and the other pension expense, which has now reported in the non-operating, at $958 million. We expect net interest expense to be between $180 million and the $185 million in line with 2017. We see our average diluted shares outstanding to be between $287 million and $289 million on a full-year basis, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program. We expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19%. Our estimated tax rate in 2018 is lower than 2017, primarily due to enactment of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. In 2018, we see our EPS to be in the range of $9.55 to $9.75. Our operating cash flow from continuing operations for 2018 is expected to be between $3.6 billion and $4 billion. This compares to $2.7 billion in 2017, which as we previously mentioned, included $1 billion discretionary pension contribution. Before moving on to page 10, I would like to mention that we expect our 2018 bookings to be between $27.5 billion and $28.5 billion, driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. And we expect stronger bookings in the second half of the year similar to prior years. So if you move to page 10, here we have provided our initial 2018 guidance by business. We expect to see growth in our IDS Missile systems, SAS and Forcepoint businesses in 2018. At the midpoint of the sales range, we expect IIS sales in 2018 to be in line with 2017. As we've discussed before, this is driven by the planned ramp down on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Excluding Warfighter FOCUS , we expect IIS to grow in the low to mid-single digit range, driven by domestic cyber security and classified programs. With respect to segment margins, consistent with our prior comments, we expect 2018 margins to continue to be solid in the 12.5% to 12.7% range. This is up about 20 basis points over 2017 at the midpoint. At IDS, we see margins in the 16.4% to 16.6% range, which is also up from 2017. This change is driven by favorable program mix as we ramp on some recently awarded programs and increased productivity, driven by efficiencies from our investments and factory automation and equipment upgrades. We expect IIS margins of 7.6% to 7.8%, which is up 30 basis points over 2017 at the point. We see missile’s margins in the 13.1% to 13.3% range, up versus 2017. SAS margins are expected to be in the 12.3% to 12.5% range. And as I mentioned on the October call, down year-over-year primarily due to program mix. And at Forcepoint, we expect margins in the 6% to 8% range. It’s worth noting under the new retirement benefit standard, our margins at a total company level recast for 2017, are 16.7%. For 2018 at a total company level, our margins are expected to be in the 17.1% to 17.3% range. This increase is driven primarily by both the improvement at the business segment level and a higher expected FAS/CAS operating adjustment. We now turn to page 11. We’ve provided you with our outlook for the first quarter of 2018. Excluding the impact of tax reform in Q4 2017, we expect the cadence for the balance of 2018 to play out similar to 2017 with sales, EPS and operating cash flow ramping up in the second half of the year. Turning to page 12. Given tax reform and to help you with your modeling, we provided you with a long-term view of how we see our cash flow outlook over the next three years. We are pleased with our strong cash flow going forward, which is better than our prior expectations. We see our cumulative operating cash flows to be approximately $11 billion to 412 billion from 2018 through 2020. And on page 13, as we have done in the past, we’ve provided the summary of the financial impact from pensions in 2017, as well as the projected impact for 2018 through 2020, holding all assumptions constant. For comparison purposes, we’ve provided you with the pension tables under both the old and new retirement benefi standards. As I mentioned earlier, we see the 2018 FAS/CAS operating adjustment at approximately $1.4 billion of income and the other pension expense in non-operating at $958 million, which reflects our investment returns in 2018 of 15% on our U. S. pension assets, the December 31st discount rate of 3.7% and a long-term return on asset assumption of 7.5%. And finally, on page 14, we have provided an updated three year outlook of the acquisition accounting adjustments to help you with your long-term modeling. Before concluding, I wanted to touch on our capital deployment strategy, especially in light of tax reform. As I just mentioned, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet that provides us the financial flexibility. We remain focused on deploying capital in ways that create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth, paying a sustainable and competitive dividend, reducing our share count, making targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs and making discretionary contributions to the pension. Let me conclude by saying that in 2017 Raytheon again delivered strong operating performance. Sales grew 5.1%, and our backlog was up 4%. We have a solid balance sheet, which gives us flexibility and options to continue to drive shareholder value and a strong outlook for cash. We are well positioned to grow in 2018 and beyond. Before moving on to Q&A, I'd like to welcome Kelsey DeBriyn, who recently joined the Investor Relations team as a Senior Director. As Todd transitions to his new role as Vice President of Corporate Development, please feel free to reach out to Kelsey with follow-up questions after the call. So with that, we'll open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu, please proceed.
Sheila Kahyaoglu:
Just I guess on margins for missile systems going forward, maybe if you could elaborate on that a little bit. Given your signal pick up in our short type of business with precision weapons and strong bookings, maybe can you talk about the mix impact there?
Toby O'Brien:
So we do expect to see higher productivity and operational efficiencies at missiles this year. But as you mentioned, given their portfolio and their mix, it’s important to keep in mind that that is a broad portfolio. We've seen considerable growth in both development and classified programs that can and are impacting the margin a bit, particularly early on so that's a bit of a headwind right now. But overall, we're very pleased with the portfolio, the mix of programs and it really supports and bodes well for the continued ability for the missiles business to grow going forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr:
So you've given us a lot of detail on the Tax Act impact, the P&L and those items. Could you maybe walk us through the impact on 2018 cash flow, I mean breaking out items of the repatriation, the lower tax rate any other items that are relevant. Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
So I'll start with the repatriation right. So that doesn't have any impact on our cash flow. That was cash that was already on the books. What that does do, it gives us some flexibility to bring cash back over to the U. S. to deal with some ebbs and flows of needs domestically versus internationally. I think beyond that, what I would say is within our cash outlook for 2018, we’ve got a little over $400 million as it relates to tax reform overall as a benefit compared to our prior expectations. We have that offset a little bit maybe about $150 million $200 million related to some tax initiatives that we got the benefit of from a cash tax point of view in 2017 that we don’t see repeating in 2018. But overall, we’re pleased with tax reform. As Tom mentioned in this comments, it provides us the benefit to be more competitive and it does provide some additional financial flexibility for us.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert Spingarn:
A follow-up or clarification type question on Missiles, well really revenue question Tom on SM-3 and SM-6. Wondering if you could see the air force and the navy doing combined buy there, may be a multiyear. And then the second question is just the Forcepoint margin. What's going on there?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, let me start off with missiles. We are working with the department to -- and looking at multiyears for the standard missile family, and combining SM-3 and SM-6. So there is activity looking at that. I can tell you that the demand signals for the SM-6 and SM-3 are at an all time high. So we feel very strongly about those two franchises and actually SM-3 had multiple franchises within it, both domestic and international. Moving over to Forcepoint, we said that this year at Forcepoint would be a rebuilding year. We did there do a major change and its back office and also a major change, and it's a sales force. The area here is what we’re trying to drive, is a move from the sneeze, small to medium size enterprises into the large enterprises and very large enterprises. And then also there was couple of acquisitions that have worked out very well for us, and putting them in the place. But we really looked at the 2017 as a rebuilding year for Forcepoint and essentially structuring it as the $600 million year revenue business that it is.
Toby O'Brien:
And Rob, maybe I'll just add a little bit to Tom’s comments on Forcepoint. So they did fall short of our expectations in the quarter. They didn’t end where we want them to be. That said, following on what Tom said, we have made the appropriate investments in the business. And what we're seeing is they’re just taken a bit longer to play out and translate into both sales growth and margin expansion, and we still believe that's attainable. The outlook, the guidance we provided for '18 reflects the outcome we saw in 2017 and again, the latter timing of the pay off of our investments. I’ll reinforce on the positive side, we are seeing a growing and stronger pipeline. Tom talked about acquisitions are proving to be beneficial. And we do have solved and demonstrate the capabilities and solutions in the business. I'll also point out for '18 at Forcepoint specifically, we do expect a stronger back half of the year compared to the first half. And because of that, we would expect an operating loss at Forcepoint in the first couple of quarters similar to what we saw in Q4 with volume building into the second half along with the profitability and higher margins. Beyond ’18, we still expect the business to be able to deliver double-digit growth in margins. Just real tactically on Q4 '17, the margin was just impacted by lower volume. To put in perspective, it was about $12 million of sales that moved into '18 from '17 as Tom mentioned really just longer gestation period on deals with large and very large enterprises, it was about four, five deals ranging from $1 million to $4 million that move that caused the sales and margin shortfall in Q4.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please proceed.
Douglas Harned:
You’ve been having a lot of success with Patriot lately, and I’d like to understand a couple of things on it. One is, when you look at the outlook for Patriot, how do you see the outlook for the Missiles used. In other words, perhaps you could say a little bit about the SkyCeptor program. And I would add into that, when you go to 360 degree radar, what do you expect this will do in terms of affecting the market and the demand for the system?
Tom Kennedy:
So let me take that, Doug. First of all, I think what’s key about Patriot for folks to understand is that there is multiple countries that own and utilize the Patriot system. With the addition of Romania that will be 14 countries. And then with Poland, that will make it 15 and then with Sweden, that will make it 16. So relative for example to the 360 radar, there is a market of these 16 countries for an upgrade to their Patriot systems. So it’s actually provides the built-in market for the Patriot capabilities. We had seen some significant demand for our GEM-T missiles in the Middle East that this system is being used quite a bit by both the Emirates and then also by Saudi Arabia, to essentially knock down scuds that are being fired out in Yemen, so high demand signal there for GEM-Ts and then very successful in that region. I think the bottom line is that Patriot has a lot of upside potentially here over the next several years. The main area here is a concept that Deterrence that I talked about, that nations want. This capability protects their sovereignty and we’re seeing that big demand pulls in actually three regions in Europe, in the MENA region and also in the Asia Pacific region. So I think Patriot is going to a solid franchise here definitely for at least the next 10 years then with the refresh of the 360s radar that takes out another 20 years.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Richard Safran of Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard Safran:
Tom, on the subject of franchise, because I thought I would ask you about two. I was reading and I wanted to ask you about the hypersonic comments in your opening remarks. I was reading that there could be an award this year possibly in March for a hypersonic weapon. So wanted to know, you’ve been talking about this for some time, one pillar of your strategy. Are you being considered the prime on the program? Do you think there isn’t award that could be made this year? If possible, can you talk about the size of the opportunity? And on the second part here, Harpoon replacement, so you’ve had Lockheed and Boeing trucked out. We’ve talked about this. Are we going to get that contract signed as soon as the CRs end and we have an FY 2018 spending bill? And if you could discuss how quickly that program might ramp?
Tom Kennedy:
Rich, first of all back on hypersonic. We’ve been on the hypersonic path here for many years. In fact, you’re right. It’s in our second pillar of our four pillar strategy. We actually say that we’re heavily investing and working in the hypersonic area. We have already gotten multiple hypersonic contracts with the Department of Defense. So one of the larger ones is a program called Hawk, which is with DARPA and it is -- essentially it’s a sensory hypersonic missile and we are the prime. There are several other, I would call, pursuit activities relative to hypersonic. So we are engaged in those hypersonic missile pursuits and as a prime across the board. So we do believe that hypersonics is the next wave of technology related to advanced missile systems, and that's our significant opportunities out there and we've positioned ourselves year over multiple years to be ready to go capture those opportunities. And we felt very positive about that. On your other question relative to naval strike missile, you're absolutely correct. We are heavily engaged in that pursuit. There is press out there that does say that both Boeing and Lockheed have dropped out. We are pursuing this in a competitive way despite that. And you also are right it does take the CR to be removed for us to be awarded the contract here. Number one reason is the fact that they can't award a new start under a CR. So we're very, I’d say, motivated to see the CR finally resolved here in the February time frame.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Carter Copemann with Millius Research. Please proceed.
Carter Copemann:
Tom, a couple for you, one on the Forcepoint commentary, and the performance relative to your expectations. I mean there's clearly a trust element in the plan and the performance improvement you expect there, but there's also a decision at some point in the future about whether or not you want to keep that asset or not. Is there a period of time that you're considering or you think we should consider is reasonable to expect that performance improvement to show up that we should wait and see or not. And then secondly on the commentary Toby you made around tax reform, and wanting to be balanced. Is there any -- and clearly there's an incentive. But is there any opportunity for internal investment that you can identify or even just areas of investment that you guys might want to put incremental capital to work, especially given the share repurchases for you and a lot of the other peers in the space have come off a little bit from where they were. Help us think through if there's really anything material there. Thanks guys.
Tom Kennedy:
So let me take the Forcepoint first. And the bottom line is that the team is focused on executing its growth strategies. And Forcepoint is all about growth. One of the other elements we haven't talked about is how Forcepoint fits into our overall cyber strategy at the company level, and the synergies that we get, especially in international market and working with other governments in terms of being able to leverage the technologies out of Forcepoint, which has helped us essentially grow our entire cyber security capability within the company. We are, again, this year was a rebuilding year. We're going to be, I would call it, next year is a transient year coming off the rebuilding year and into what we consider to be a year to be able to drive and meet our expectations moving forward. So I think this year 2017 was the rebuild year, 2018 is a transient year, ramping up into where we expecting to be with the double digit growth and also double digit margins in 2019. That's essentially how we are looking at it. And in meantime, we are leveraging Forcepoint in all of our international pursuits relative to cyber security with industrial partners and then also with governments around the world.
Toby O'Brien:
And then Carter, I'll maybe go little bit broader and try to answer your question on the -- around capital deployment. So I won't repeat what I said in the script about how we're thinking of it from a high level point of view. But I will reinforce that we continue to target 80% of our free cash been return to shareholders. And sitting here today, we still see that is the case in that 80% range plus or minus. But one thing that we have done, you mentioned capital investments in ourselves to continue to grow. So last year our CapEx and software spending was $611 million. In 2018, we expect it to be in the range of $910 million to $950 million, so more than a 50% increase. And what we're doing there, where we're making those increases, we're looking to invest in infrastructure or high technology production facilities demonstration capabilities, more factory automation. The combination of which helps position us better to grow and drive productivity improvements. IR&D as well, we’re looking at about 3% of IRAD at sales here in '18, and given or take, would expect that to continue ongoing forward. I would say that the tick-up in capital, think of that as kind of a one-time step-up. And going forward in '19 and beyond, the way to think of thing is more give or take 3% of revenue. And then last thing that I would mention, obviously, we made the $1 billion discretionary contribution to the plan in '17. And given tax reform, we continue to evaluate potentially making an additional contribution before September 15th and will provide more details on that later in the year.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed.
Pete Skibitski:
I was just hoping to get a little more clarity on Patriot, on a couple of items. The recent greater than $1.5 billion Patriot sale. Was that a new customer with just modernization program or brand new fire units? And I was wondering if you could maybe at least give the regional location of the customer. And then separate from that, Tom, it sounds like there is maybe an additional customer in Europe that's new beyond Poland or maybe in Sweden. I was wondering if you could maybe give us sense of the size and timing there.
Tom Kennedy:
So the bottom line is on this $1.5 billion Patriot order we received in the first week of January of this year that was an existing customers acquiring more fire units. And so we are seeing, again this is the across Europe and across MENA region and across Asia Pacific region, it’s a significant demand for the capability of the Patriot system from new customers, as we mentioned and then also from existing, who already have fire units. And so the bottom line is the system is performing and these nations are recognizing that. And there is a demand signal and demand signal is based on these the concern of these countries in protecting their sovereignty. And this fits into the bucket of Deterrence that I talked about. In terms of the next country, in Europe, I'm afraid I can't disclose it, except to say that it's in Europe.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo Securities.
SamPearlstein :
I guess, just a couple of questions if I can put them all together. But missile systems, I know you’ve talked productivity improvements and things of that where it came earlier in the year. But just overall, the year ended below what you originally planned. So I guess, I was wondering if you could just talk about what might have come in, whether that’s the mix, whether it’s performance, anything of that sort. And then separately, what changed from October when you talked about 3% to 5% growth, it’s now 4% to 6%. What got better?
Toby O'Brien:
Relative to missiles and the end to the year, the lower margin is really primarily due to two things; little lower program improvements than we were expecting; and a change in program mix as well. So it was combination of those two things. We don’t look at the lower productivities as any trend or anything, just the timing related to the recognition of the improvements. And as we talked about, we see their margins improving in 2018. As far as the overall top line growth going up to the 4% to 6%, really two things. As we talked about, it’s our normal process. We work it up through the end of the year. But we also exceeded our expectations in 2017 on the high end relative to bookings, and combine that with we’re off to a quick start with the $1.5 billion Patriot order that Tom just talked about. They were really the two big drivers that led to the increase.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard:
I am looking at slide 12 in the pack, Tony or Tom. If you achieve the top end of your operating cash guidance for 2018, this would imply that you’re not going to have any cash flow growth in 2019 and 2020. I was wondering if you could maybe explain that situation given the strength of the bookings and the revenue outlook. And whether there is any weirdness in terms of cash consumption or advances or things like that? Thank you.
Toby O'Brien:
So there is obviously a bunch of things that affect cash flow, including the revenue growth and the flow through on the profitability. But keep in mind, including what drove some of the strong performance in 2017 compared to our expectations we do from time-to-time get some significant advances. We were favorably impacted in ‘17. So you have the program activity that plays into it. But the other thing I would mention, taking a look, especially 2018 versus 2019 that in 2018, the 2018 cash is the tax benefit of the 2017 discretionary contribution that we made, that we’ve talked about. And if you were to exclude that benefit in ‘18, we’d expect 2019 cash to be more in line to maybe slightly up with ‘18. So that’s a big driver along with some of the timing of the program activity.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Gregory Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George Shapiro:
I’ve been called a lot of things, but Gregory is not one of them.
Tom Kennedy:
We certainly missed your name, sorry about that.
George Shapiro:
One, Toby my usual one, but looking at it for the year, the bookings were 2.37 above the sales and the backlog is up $1.5 billion, so a sizable disconnect there you might spell out what caused the difference. And then the second one, Tom, this kind of just gets to another question on Forcepoint. But the reality is this business is disappointed from when you initially got it. So my question is at what point do you really worry that your strategy is not working out the way you think and then what actions do you take.
Toby O'Brien:
George, I'll address the first one. And as we talk about in the past, we do have backlog adjustments, particularly as we under run cost side programs. And we did see a couple hundred million in Q4 and around $900 million for the year. I will say we do work with our customers in these cases to bring in new work, new scope, when we do under-run on current programs, which obviously result potentially in new bookings. And as you saw throughout the year, we did increase our guidance every quarter. So overall, we're pleased with our bookings performance and the resulting backlog. Again, our backlog grew 4% year-over-year and 2018 bookings outlook for the year of $27.5 billion to $28.5 billion set the stage real well for continued sales growth.
Tom Kennedy:
George, let me hit your Forcepoint question. So back to what the goal, the goal was in establishing a commercial cyber security business as part of Raytheon. And the main reason for that was to unlock the value of our cyber security capabilities and provide them to the commercial marketplace. So we have done that. We have created several commercial products. They are being integrated into the Forcepoint set of product solutions and we are getting some significant demand for those products. Those demands for those products are in the large enterprise and very large enterprise area. And that is why we are restructuring the sales force of Forcepoint from the SME sales force, which had heavy reliance on VARs, value added resellers, to more of an internal sales force and structure. So I think we are on plan. Relative to where we want to go in the big scheme of things, I agree with you. We're disappointed. We're not getting there as fast, but we are seeing the signs that show that the strategy can work, will work. One point I would like to make and we haven’t really made that a lot about Forcepoint is the synergy for Forcepoint with the rest of our cyber security pursuits. We had a significant book-to-bill ratio in the cyber security area this past year 1.4 book-to-bill. And one of the main reasons for this is the customers are recognizing that we have the entire, from the beginning all the way to the end relative to cyber, essentially we cover and this is one of our themes that we cover all sides of cyber, all sides of cyber security, all the way from supporting governments, all the way from supporting industrials, and now even into the commercial marketplace. And this gives us significant credentials. When I go, for example, to the Middle East and I meet with the heads of state there, one of the questions they have about cyber is; how do we have all these capabilities; how do we have the ability to support governments; how do we have the ability to support the industry verticals. And the reason is because we have all these, these capabilities within the company, including commercial capability. So it does help us in our overall sales force of cyber all around. You are right. It's going slower than we expected. There're some things that we learned along the way. And one of the big areas is that lot of the products that we can leverage into Forcepoint are really fit in the domain of the large enterprises, and the top 500 companies in the world. And that's the companies that we're focusing on, but we do need to build the sales force to be able to continue to grow our capability with them.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment:
Tom, just a bigger picture question on missile systems, I mean it continues to be a great story with all the growth. I mean, when you look at all the franchises there, I mean how are we viewing in terms of the long-term growth? I mean, you look at a lot of these franchises. Do you expect it to level off that when we've had this big step up the last few years, or just maybe give us some color on that? Thanks.
Tom Kennedy:
We’re very excited about the missile company and its future. And you are right, we do have quite a bit of franchises. So I think one of the things that we've done is we haven't just let those franchises stay idle, we've continued to make significant investments in those franchises over the year. So they are relevant, relevant relative to the mission, relevant relative to the technology that is incorporated in those franchises. But we are not just standing still on those franchises. We're pursuing next generation systems. And also, next generation systems that may actually make some of those franchises -- put those franchises out of business, likes for example in the area of hypersonics. We won some significant programs in hypersonics. We're seeing an uptick and demand signals for hypersonics, back in line with our area of calling the been able to address peer threats, also we saw that in the new and national defense strategy out of secretary Mattis relative to addressing those threats. And so we’re going to see increased demand in the area of hypersonics. So whole new growth area for the missile company that wasn’t there before. In addition to the existing franchise demands, we just talked a little bit about and was brought up on the on one of the questions relative to navel strike missile. This is a program that replaces the Harpoon system. The last run of Harpoon was called the Harpoon 2. It was over 7,000 harpoons built, and it's a global weapon. So that has international lag, so this will be a brand new franchise out of the gate potential $8 billion opportunity over 10 year period, and it has international legs. So a brand new one entering and it's -- and the way we've developed this system in partnership with Kongsberg. This system is not going to go through a 10 year development cycle, it already exists and it's ready to enter production almost immediately upon award of the contract. So lot of great news for the missile company and we’re very excited about it. The demand signals are there. We happen to have the technologies. We made the right investments at the right place. And always see as upside potential moving forward.
Todd Ernst :
Okay, we’ll have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter conference call in April. Joyce?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Company, LLC Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Katina, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay proposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Katina. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon once again delivered strong operating performance in the third quarter. Our revenue increased by 4.5%, driven equally by both domestic and international growth. We also achieved solid operating margins. Earnings per share was well ahead of our prior guidance for the quarter, allowing us to increase our EPS guidance for the year. We continue to see strong global demand for our advanced solutions. Book-to-bill in the third quarter was 1.11. This drove an increase in backlog of nearly $1 billion year-over-year. Given this and opportunities we see in the fourth quarter, we are again increasing our bookings outlook for the year by another $500 million. It's worth noting that since the beginning of this year, we have increased our bookings outlook by a total of $1.5 billion over our original expectation and now expect the full year book-to-bill ratio of 1.07. So as you can see, our growth strategy remains on track, which positions us well as we head into 2018. Toby will discuss additional details about our third quarter performance, updates to guidance, as well as our initial 2018 outlook in a few minutes. Over the past couple of months, I've met face to face with many of our global customers including just this past Tuesday when I attended the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The conference was a unique opportunity for global business and Saudi leaders to discuss industry and company investment opportunities in the Kingdom. My takeaway from that dialogue and others I've had around the globe over the past several months is that Raytheon's broad portfolio of capabilities remains well aligned with these customers' rapidly evolving requirements. One area where we are seeing strong demand is within our Integrated Air and Missile Defense portfolio both domestically and internationally. We have a wide range of solutions to address threats ranging from short-range rockets, all the way to intercontinental ballistic missiles. Raytheon has developed some of the strongest domain expertise derived from decades of experience designing and building interceptors, radars and command and control networks. There are several notable third quarter achievements in this area that I'd like to point out. We received a booking of $492 million for the development of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle also known as the RKV. RKV is the next-generation kill vehicle for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense System. As you may know, GMD is the United States' anti-ballistic missile system for intercepting incoming warheads in space during the midcourse phase of flight. It is a major component of our country's defense strategy to counter intercontinental ballistic missile threats. In addition, in August, the Air and Missile Defense Radar we're developing for the U.S. Navy successfully searched for, acquired and tracked a ballistic missile target. Also known as AMDR, this was the radar's second test against a live target and featured a more complex, threat-representative ballistic missile target than prior engagements. And in September, during a third AMDR test, the radar successfully tracked multiple simultaneous missile targets. We're very pleased with the performance of this new radar against increasingly complex threat scenarios. Also in August, a Standard Missile-6 successfully intercepted a medium range ballistic missile at sea in its terminal phase. This shows that the SM-6 is a highly versatile missile that can perform missions from anti-air to anti-surface warfare and now even more advanced sea-based ballistic missile defense. And after the quarter, in early October, Raytheon interceptors downed four missiles in a NATO test exercise over European waters that showcased our multiple innovative solutions to protect against ever-advancing threats. Our Standard Missile-2 and the evolved SeaSparrow missile successfully knocked down anti-ship cruise missiles, while our Standard Missile-3 IB successfully intercepted a medium-range ballistic missile target, an important milestone that paves the way for full-rate production. We also continue to see very strong demand for Integrated Air and Missile Defense solutions in the international market. For example, earlier this month, Congress was notified of a $15 billion sale of seven THAAD fire units and related equipment to Saudi Arabia. Critical to the THAAD system capability is a long-range TPY-2 radar which Raytheon produces. With each fire unit having one TPY-2 radar, we believe the opportunity for us is in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. While the timing of international awards is always difficult to predict, we currently expect an award for this opportunity in the late 2018 or 2019 timeframe. In addition, Japan has indicated that it is pursuing missile defense solutions to protect its homeland, creating opportunities for us with our AMDR, SM-3 Block IIA missiles and SM-6 missiles. I would add that we co-produce SM-3 Block IIA missiles with Japan. Beyond this, we continue to make progress on several large Patriot opportunities in Europe and we see additional demand signal for early warning sensing and missile defense offerings in the Middle East. Let me point out several other areas where we're seeing strong demand. In the third quarter, we had significant bookings for TOW, Excalibur, training as well as strong classified bookings in Missiles, SAS and IIS. We also received an award for the Long-Range Standoff Missile that leverages Raytheon's domain expertise in this area. In ISR, we were selected by DigitalGlobe as the provider of the next-generation imaging payload for its WorldView Legion satellite constellation. Raytheon's new payload extends our expertise in defense imaging solutions into the commercial markets. And in a big milestone for our cybersecurity business, after the close of the third quarter, the Government Accountability Office dismissed the DOMino protest on all grounds and IIS is now actively working with the Department of Homeland Security on cybersecuring the .gov domain. DOMino is over $1 billion IDIQ contract that is vital to U.S. national and economic security. It's one of the largest single cybersecurity contracts ever awarded. As I look to the future, I'm excited about the strong customer interest we're generating in some of our newest technologies, some of them which were on display at AUSA earlier this month. One example is our new SkyHunter system, a collaboration between Raytheon and Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. This system is designed to help protect U.S. forces and their allies from short-range threats including short-range rockets. SkyHunter is based on a combat-proven Iron Dome system, which has more than 1,500 intercepts to date. The SkyHunter variant recently completed successful testing at White Sands and is available for procurement and rapid deployment. Another product that was well received at AUSA was our vehicle-mounted High-Energy Laser, which can knock drones out of the sky, an increasingly important capability in theater. We have already begun field tests of this advanced capability and we will be demonstrating it in an upcoming U.S. Army event in December. Before concluding, I would like to take a moment to briefly touch on the U.S. defense budget in the current environment in Washington. As most of you know, we are again operating under a continuing resolution through early December as we had anticipated when we last gave guidance in July. We are cautiously optimistic that a final defense appropriations bill will be completed by the end of December or shortly thereafter. We continue to see strong support for the fiscal year 2018 defense spending in congressional committee markups. Lastly, during the third quarter, Raytheon celebrated its 95th anniversary. And while our products and systems may have changed over the decades, what has remained the same is our focus on providing innovative technologies and solutions for the success of our customers, company and shareholders. Thank you to the generations of Raytheon teammates, past and present, who have made it all possible. Now let me turn the call over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the third quarter highlights. And then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the third quarter, with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all at or better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the third quarter of $7 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.11. Sales were $6.3 billion in the quarter, up 4.5% with growth across all of our businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.97, which I'll give a little more color on in a few minutes. We generated solid operating cash flow of $382 million in the third quarter. Operating cash flow was lower than last year's third quarter, as expected, primarily due to higher required pension contributions in the third quarter 2017. This was partially offset by the timing of collections. During the quarter, the company repurchased 1.1 million shares of common stock for $200 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.4 million shares for $700 million. I also want to point out, based on our strong performance to date, that we're raising our full-year 2017 outlook for bookings and EPS that we provided in July. We are also updating the expected sales growth range from 4% to 6% to 5% to 6%, as well as making other updates. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our third quarter results. Company bookings continue to be strong. For the third quarter, bookings were $7 billion, and on a year-to-date basis, were $19.2 billion. It's worth noting that on a trailing four-quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.08. Total backlog at the end of the third quarter was $36.7 billion, an increase of approximately $950 million compared to the end of the third quarter 2016. If you'd now move to page 5, third quarter 2017 sales were in line with the guidance we set in July. Our international sales were approximately 32% of total sales. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had third quarter 2017 net sales of $1.4 billion, up 4% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase in net sales for the quarter was driven primarily by higher net sales on an International Early Warning Radar Program. Missile Systems had third quarter 2017 net sales of $1.9 billion. The 10% increase from the third quarter 2016 was primarily due to the Paveway and Excalibur programs. And at IIS, SAS and Forcepoint, sales were up slightly compared with the same period last year. Moving ahead to page 6. Overall, the company continues to perform well. Our operating margin was 13.7% for the total company and 13% on a business segment basis. So looking now at the business margins. IDS third quarter 2017 operating margin was strong at 16.6%, an increase of 80 basis points year-over-year. The increase was driven by improved program performance. The decrease in operating margin at IIS in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, as expected, was primarily driven by a change in program mix and other performance. Missiles margin was up 110 basis points in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies. This increase was driven by favorable adjustments on a couple of international contracts due to a change in requirements, partially offset by an unfavorable contract modification. SAS operating margin was in line with last year's third quarter. And at Forcepoint, the third quarter 2017 operating margin, as expected, was lower than last year's comparable quarter primarily due to investments to expand the sales force capacity, increase the new business pipeline and improve brand awareness. Additionally, I want to point out that our third quarter operating income was unfavorably impacted by $26 million for the annual actuarial update to our pension plans. I'll touch on this more in a minute. Turning now to page 7. Third quarter 2017 EPS was $1.97, better than expected, primarily driven by strong margin performance as we accelerated some program efficiencies that were previously expected later in the year. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2017 to reflect our improved operating performance to date and our expectations for the fourth quarter. We have increased the low end of our full year 2017 net sales by $200 million and we now expect net sales to be between $25.3 billion and $25.6 billion, up 5% to 6% from 2016. The increase over 2016 is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. As I just mentioned, and as we have done in prior years, during the third quarter, we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update, the FAS/CAS adjustment for the year decreased by $39 million from $428 million to $389 million or an unfavorable impact of approximately $0.09 per share. Again, $26 million or $0.06 per share was recorded in the third quarter 2017 and $13 million or $0.03 per share is expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter 2017. Turning to share count. We continue to see our average diluted shares outstanding at approximately 292 million shares for 2017, a 2% year-over-year reduction, consistent with what we said in July. We are reducing the range of our net interest expense to be between $185 million and $190 million to reflect higher average cash balances and interest rates on cash. This is worth about $0.02 to EPS compared to our prior guidance. We have slightly lowered our effective tax rate to reflect an update to the assumed tax benefit associated with stock-based compensation and for some additional tax planning items within the second half of the year. The total benefit is worth about $0.05 per share for the full year. We now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30% for the year. We've increased our full year 2017 EPS, raising the low end by $0.10 and the high end by $0.05 from our prior guidance, after absorbing the $0.09 per share unfavorable pension impact I just discussed. We now expect our EPS to be in the range of $7.45 to $7.55. The increase is primarily driven by our improved performance to-date as well as the improvement to the effective tax rate and lower net interest expense. Our operating cash flow in the third quarter was in line with our prior expectations. We continue to see our 2017 operating cash flow outlook between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion. Similar to last year, and as I mentioned on the last earnings call, our cash flow profile is more heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter due to the timing of program milestones and collections on some of our larger contracts. And as you can see on page 9, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the low end of the guidance range for the full year sales outlook at IDS, IIS, Missiles and SAS to reflect a combination of stronger bookings performance to-date and fourth quarter expectations. Looking at margins, at the business segment level compared to our prior guidance, we have raised the low end of the range by 10 basis points and now see business segment operating margin in a range of 12.5% to 12.6% for the full year. And at the company level, as a result of the actuarial update to the pension plans that I previously discussed, we have narrowed the margin range from our prior guidance and now see our company operating margin to be in a range of 13.2% to 13.3% for the full year. Before moving on to page 10. As Tom mentioned earlier, given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectation for a solid fourth quarter, we are now raising our full-year 2017 bookings outlook to a range of between $26.5 billion to $27.5 billion. This $500 million increase to the prior range is driven by strong demand from our global customers and positions us well for 2018. We expect international to be about a third of total bookings this year. On page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the fourth quarter for sales, earnings per share and operating cash flow from continuing operations. We expect our fourth quarter sales to be in a range of $6.7 billion to $7 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $1.86 to $1.96. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $1.7 billion to $2 billion. Now turning to next year, as we have done in the past, we intend to provide detailed 2018 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call in January. As we sit here today, we currently see the book-to-bill ratio in 2018 above 1 and strong sales growth for 2018 of 3% to 5% over the midpoint of our 2017 outlook. We expect business segment margin to be up slightly in 2018 compared to 2017, driven primarily by improved program mix. We expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 31% in 2018. I would note that this tax rate guidance reflects current law. In addition, we expect solid operating cash flow in 2018, in line with 2017 as improvement from the businesses is offset by higher cash taxes, and as expected, higher required pension contributions. Of course, I want to caveat all this by saying our assumptions are based on a defense budget being approved in Washington before year end, thereby avoiding an extended CR or a government shutdown. So, if you could please move to page 11. We have provided a combined FAS/CAS adjustment matrix for 2018. As we sit here today, the discount rate is approximately 30 basis points to 40 basis points lower than it was at the end of 2016 and would be roughly 4%. And our return on assets through October 25 is a little above 11%. And just to be clear, the final discount rate and the actual asset returns won't be known until we close out 2017. Before moving on, I want to point out that consistent with our public filings, we plan to adopt the new retirement benefits standard in the first quarter of 2018, which moves the presentation of certain components of FAS, pension and postretirement benefit expense from operating to non-operating income. We expect the standard to increase operating income due to the removal of all components of SAS expense other than service costs. Likewise, we expect non-operating income to decrease by the same amount with no impact to net income. As a result, our FAS/CAS adjustment will be split into FAS/CAS operating income and FAS/CAS non-operating expense. We'll provide a more detailed pension outlook on our year-end call in January. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earnings calls, with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year and are targeting returning approximately 80% of free cash flow to shareholders, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In summary, we had another strong quarter. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow were at or above our expectations. We remain well positioned with both our domestic and international customers' priority areas. We increased our full-year 2017 outlook for bookings and EPS, updated the sales growth range to 5% to 6% and have a solid foundation for continued growth in 2018. With that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Jason Gursky representing Citi. Please proceed.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jason.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey, Tom, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the backlog – or the bookings outlook, I should say, for 2018. Maybe you talk a little bit about the major pursuits that you have there and maybe the international domestic mix that you expect. And then finally, in the context of other bookings pursuits, talk a little bit about the contract vehicles that you've been experiencing in weight (26:37) and kind of what you expect going forward and whether there are any significant changes that you're seeing being used by any of your customers that might inform us about the risk profile or the margins on a go-forward basis? Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
That's a great question. It's going to take a little while to answer all of it. But let me start off on 2018. I mean it's all a good new story here. In 2018, we do expect a solid bookings year. We do believe it will be a book-to-bill above 1, looking into the overall year. Right now, we are seeing roughly 40 opportunities, 40 opportunities that are greater than $100 million. About one-third of our total bookings are expected to come from our international customers and I'm going to tie that back into your question about contract vehicles later as it is important. For IDS, we see around two-thirds of their bookings being international, that's made up of Patriot-related bookings in Europe and the Middle East, plus other Integrated Air and Missile Defense opportunities. The balance of the international is comprised of other spares, upgrades, sustainment and training contracts. And we also expect IDS to have solid domestic bookings on various naval systems, missile defense and Patriot programs. IDS has a good mix on classified, Intel, cyber training, missions support. The domestic bookings for IAS will make up about 85% of their bookings; at least that's our plan to date. And Missiles, we see a solid mix of both international and domestic awards and that's going to be throughout the year and it's across their entire portfolio. Every one of their franchises has significant demand signals in 2018. On the domestic side, we see over about $1.5 billion on SM-3, AMRAAM and also the SM-6. In addition, there is significant opportunities for AIM-9X, Tomahawk and Phalanx. Now about one third of their bookings will be coming from international customers, including $1 billion on Paveway in addition to other opportunities for AMRAAM, Stinger, TOW and Phalanx. And then for SAS, we see about $3 billion related to electronic warfare and ISR, along with opportunities in classified space and tactical airborne systems and their total international should be about one-fifth of their business. Now I'm going to answer your question relative to contract vehicles. So on our domestic work, a majority of the contract vehicles are either cost plus, either fixed fee or incentive fee and that's usually associated with development programs. Transitioning into production, the LRIPs, we see a majority of those contracts going into fixed-price incentive-fee and then into full rate production, either fixed price incentive fee or firm-fixed-price. On the international side, we have our set of FMS contracts and about half of our international business is on the, I would call it, the FMS-type contract vehicles. And those FMS contract vehicles, they range very similar to domestic. There are some cost-plus contracts. There are fixed price incentive fee contracts and also firm-fixed-price. And I would say it's a mix of those three types of contract vehicles. But we also have half of our international business is direct commercial sale. So it's a true commercial contract and that's where we do see our highest margins in the business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr representing Cowen & Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Company, LLC:
Yes. Thank you very much. So your full-year guidance for Forcepoint assumes – looks like it assumes the profits are down in the fourth quarter. Maybe give us some color overall in terms of how is Forcepoint doing, why is the fourth quarter down and what does all of this imply for 2018. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Hi Cai, it's Toby. I'll start and then Tom can jump in here if he wants to add some color to it. I'll maybe start with 2018 and work my way back here a little bit. But for 2018, we're early in our process. But I'll tell you for Forcepoint, we are looking at about a 10% plus or minus top-line growth and double-digit margins. Okay. So that's kind of how we're thinking of things going forward. In the quarter, the sales at Forcepoint were up about 2%. If you adjust for their legacy filtering business that we've talked about in the past has been dwindling, it was about a 5% increase in the quarter. We're seeing good growth around network security and also for data and in cyber threat security. We've also seen a little bit of a challenge from timing, both in the Global Governments business here in the third quarter, and as we've talked about, as we've tried to move further up the food chain on the commercial side, selling into large and very large enterprises, that sales cycle time has become a little bit longer and a little bit harder to predict. And that's what you're seeing here, both in Q3 and the outlook for the year. I will say that in the third quarter, the margin was within our expectations. The team did a good job driving the margin in the quarter. And as I said in my opening remarks, a year-over-year decrease was expected because, taking it back to the beginning of the year, we talked about a $25 million investment in the business, a lot of that focused in the areas of sales and marketing. And therefore, what you see in the fourth quarter is the continuation of that investment, okay, which is, you're right, is driving the margins down on a sequential basis. But again, that all said, we feel everything that we've done this year between the investments, a couple bolt-on acquisitions, is positioning the business for that 10% plus or minus top-line growth, and double-digit margin in 2018.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned representing Bernstein. Please proceed.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Doug.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Doug.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I wanted to get a sense from you on really how governments right now are looking at missile defense opportunities. Because this has clearly been a good growth area for you. But in the past, particularly in the Middle East, you've seen decision making take a long time. These can get deployed over a very long period of time. Can you talk about what's becoming typical given how serious many of the threats are around the world, how the governments are thinking about the scale of system they want to use and the urgency of deployment? Because I'm thinking when are we going to see these situations translate into revenues on an earlier basis perhaps than we've seen in the past?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Doug. Let me take that since I just came back from my wild – total world tour here. Let me start off in Europe. We're seeing, especially relative to Eastern Europe, significant concerns relative to their sovereignty and the security of their citizens. A large portion of their needs is, I would say, is in the Integrated Air and Missile Defense area and relative to Raytheon, a big strong demand for Patriot. We're also seeing in Europe and we just had a major test with NATO, I mentioned that in my remarks, a strong demand for our Standard Missile vehicles and also the ESSM missile. Again these are systems that shoot down other missiles and other unmanned systems and even aircraft if they do try to invade a country. So that's in Europe. Right now, we see several countries, two big countries out there that we mentioned; one is Romania and the other one is Poland that are pushing forward working through the FMS process with the U.S. government to procure the system. I can tell you they're putting pressure on us to deliver as fast as we can possibly deliver. And so we're really working that in our factory to accelerate delivery of the systems for Romania and also Poland. Switching over to the MENA region, Middle East North Africa, again a significant demand for a lot of our products, our Paveways, our TOW systems, on the Integrated Air and Missile Defense, it's Patriot, and big demand for additional fire units from countries and upgrades of their existing systems and then also our GEM-T missiles. It turns out that since about 2015, there has been over 220 tactical ballistic missiles fired in the region. The ones that were headed towards areas where there are civilians was over 150 and those 150 were all shot down by Patriot systems. So the system is working very well in that region, which is causing additional demand. But the threat's also increasing, which is even driving the demand signal even higher in that region. So the question is not about buying, the question that we get is how fast you can deliver. So that's a different story and so maybe that's answering your question on why it's taking long. And then I just also came back from the Asia-Pacific region. I'm sure you've read about the landslide victory that Abe had recently. And again, he went, he called that election, that snap election because he was looking for support in making a modification to their constitution to allow them to take their defense group from a homeland, purely homeland defense and a passive defense into an active defense type of forces. And in that case, they're looking for additional capabilities, obviously Patriot standard missiles. We do co-produce the Standard Missile-3 Block IIA with Japan. They're also looking for Standard Missile-6. And also, they want our Air and Missile Defense Radar, the SPY-6 as part of an Aegis Ashore type system there. And other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are also looking for our capabilities. So that's the international market and again, half of that's direct commercial sale and the other half is FMS.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Safran representing Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, Tom, Toby and Todd, how are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rich.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
How are you doing?
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
How are you doing?
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, so you were pretty clear in your remarks about what's it (38:12) about 2018 and I also know you take – sometimes take a, maybe a conservative outlook here. I was wondering if your outlook for 2018 was based on the President's request or some meshing of the bills making into way (38:28) through the House and Senate. Now, the reason why I ask is that both congressional bills appear to be above the President's request. So I'm just wondering, if based on the outlook and on the President's request, could be some upside here to your guide if we end up with a bill closer to what's in the House or the Senate, do you think that Raytheon fares better in the House or Senate version? And just separately, if you could comment on international, if that's – if you say it's one-third of bookings this year, how you think that might trend next year? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Rich, it's Toby and Tom can jump in here. But as far as the initial outlook for 2018, think of it more towards the President's request and keep in mind to the degree that we may have any upside from that, given that it would be the instant year, it's more likely to be a favorable impact on the bookings where we said we'd have a book-to-bill ratio of greater of 1. The sales profit impact from that would really, if we do see something higher than the President's request, would really materialize more in 2019 and beyond.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, and let me just jump on that. So if you, relative to the modernization budget, if you add in both the base budget and OCO, the President's request was about $35.5 billion over the BCA limits. And then if you go into the HASC, the SASC and HAC-D, they're all actually pretty close to what they're shooting for. They're anywhere for $24 billion to $25 billion over the President's request. As Toby said, we're really looking more at the President's request in terms of our outlook for 2018. I can tell you that I have spent quite a bit of time on the Hill talking, on a bipartisan basis talking to two members. And there is a strong support for defense moving forward because, I'm hopeful you recognize, the world's become a much more dangerous place here in the last several years. And there are some capabilities that the U.S. needs to bring onboard here pretty quick in terms of advanced technologies. And so there's a strong support in Congress for an increased budget over and above the BCA limits.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard representing Vertical Research. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks so much, good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Tom, I thought I'd just follow up on your comments about the demand environment and the news that's come out of Turkey that they are moving forward with a Russian air defense system. Do you think these will actually come to pass, and if it does, does it create more competitive pressure around the world?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, I would say the following
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro representing Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Good morning. Quickly, Toby, my typical question, $165 million lower backlog on a sequential basis than bookings. But my real question is, your fourth quarter guidance for sales assumes 7% sales growth at the low end and 12% at the high end, a significant uptick from what we've been seeing. And a lot of it looks like it comes from the fact that Missiles, you've got to step up in growth to either between 16% and 21% in the quarter. So if you could just expand a little bit what the growth – where the growth comes from.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Sure, George. No problem. And yes, we had about $165 million of adjustments. One thing on that I'll just remind everybody that the majority of those adjustments are when we have under-runs on cost-type programs and we do continually work with our customers to convert those under-runs into new work, new scope, i.e., new bookings, either on current programs or future bookings. And again, we increased our bookings outlook for the year by $500 million, so we're pleased with where we're positioned right now. You got the numbers right on the Q4 revenue growth, I think from an overall company point of view and also for Missile Systems. And at Missiles for the year, we have improved our guidance range on the low-end and see Missiles total year sales growing by about 10%. As you noted, Q4 is strong with high double-digit growth expected. We're well positioned across the entire Missiles portfolio with the strong backlog and we do expect to see that additional sales volume really coming from the startup of some recent awards as well as some Q4 awards, some of which will relieve inventory balances and this kind of gets back to Tom's point about where our customers, from a demand perspective, want our products and they want them sooner or they want them quicker. So, where it makes sense, we've been working with our customers to try to do that and part of the growth in the fourth quarter at Missiles, as I said, is the – is reflective of that, with inventory being converted to revenue to drive that growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn representing Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hey, Rob.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Toby, I wanted to get a clarification on Forcepoint. And then Tom, on the back of George's question, I wanted – focusing on Missiles, you mentioned AUSA and you were talking about SHORAD, but I wanted to go back to the emphasis at AUSA on readiness with regard to North Korea. I mean, it was a very strong message, almost surprisingly strong coming out of the Army at that event. And I see the 10% growth in Missiles and Excalibur is part of that. I think Toby mentioned that earlier. I wanted to see how sustainable this kind of a rate might be, especially if we uptick the readiness. And in that context, I was going to ask you for the latest update on DeepStrike, just given that Long-Range Precision Fires is now one of the six pillars of the latest acquisition strategy. And then Toby, the clarification was just on Forcepoint. If you could speak to the revenue seasonality that we keep seeing in the third quarter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Do you want me to – Tom, if you want, I'll cover the Forcepoint question.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Do Forcepoint. Then I'll hit the other 10 questions.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So Forcepoint does have a couple elements of seasonality. So in Q3, typically it's the peak quarter from a government booking perspective and we saw that again here this year and in Q4, it's really the peak for commercial. So we did see the spike-up in revenue in Q3 driven by our government orders, but also some strength on the commercial side. We do expect strong commercial bookings in Q4, which typically convert to sales at a bit slower pace than the rest of the business, think more leaning towards some subscription-based sales versus licenses in the fourth quarter.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
And let me, back to your readiness, you're absolutely correct. At AUSA, there was a definite, I would say, position by the Army that we need to kick in on readiness. The good news is Raytheon is very well-positioned to support the Army in achieving the readiness across our entire set of our franchises, for example, TOW, Paveway, just to name a few, obviously the Patriot system, getting that ready. And then even in these future systems that you did mention, we are in a competition for the next-generation replacement to the ATACMS system, which is called the Long-Range Precision Fire missile. We have, I think, a very interesting solution for the Army there that actually doubles their capability and significantly increasing the range at the same time. So we are working hand in glove with the Army and to bring that system online now. It is a competition and it will be a down-select here in the next couple years. But we feel very, very optimistic about the solution that we're offering for the Army on that. And just one other element, we have been seeing an intake relative to efforts on being able to support this readiness. And across many of our systems, we have tripled the production capacity. So we've been able to meet the demand with our supply base. We believe there's additional capability to increase and that goes all the way through our supply base and have been working with our suppliers to ensure that they can even increase their material to us over and above what they're already doing. So we feel in a very good position here relative to meeting demands for the Army relative to readiness.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein representing Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I was hoping you could help me kind of square a few things, which is talking about governments and a desire to see more missile defense and you've raised your bookings a couple times and still talking about a strong bookings environment. But if I look at IDS backlog at a little over $9 billion, looks like it's the lowest we've seen in quite a number of years and actually year-to-date, the backlog for the total company is down a little bit. Like why aren't we seeing book-to-bill over 1 driving us to see backlog increases and what does that mean about the sustainability of that 3% to 5% organic growth?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
So, Sam, this is Toby. I'll take a crack at that starting out. I mean we've said it before, Tom or I might have mentioned it earlier on, in any given period, bookings can be lumpy. We are expecting, as an example, you mentioned IDS, right, and they had a strong Q1 for bookings. There was nothing significant in Q3, but we do expect their book-to-bill, as an example, in the fourth quarter to be well over 1 and approaching 1 for the year. They have some significant opportunities in front of them. Tom alluded to a few of them when he was kind of going around the world talking about the threat and the demand environment. And then when you take it down to a total company perspective, 1.11 in the quarter, last year was 1.16, 1.08 book-to-bill on a rolling four-quarters basis and our outlook for the year at 1.07, there's nothing there other than positive news relative to be able to sustain, certainly, for 2018 that 3% to 5% growth that I talked about earlier.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman representing JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much, and good morning everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. Toby, you had a nice increase in the guidance for profitability in IDS. You talked about companywide what the kind of modest margin expansion you're expecting next year. I wonder if you could talk about, A, whether that includes further growth off of this new baseline at IDS, and B, as you look to capture these new Patriot wins next year, and we think about the maturity of Patriot programs across the portfolio, does adding in the new programs kind of create kind of a new cycle, kind of like what we saw in 2015, I guess, or so when you booked a whole bunch of new Patriot programs and kind of ramped up on those?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Sure. And maybe – I know your question's largely focused around the margins, but maybe I'll kind of give you a little bit more color across all the metrics here. Keeping in mind that our intent today is give everybody a high-level look at how we're thinking about 2018. And as we continue to work through our process through the balance of the year, we'll obviously give you details, more details by business in January. But if I start at the front end of the business, as I said, another book-to-bill ratio over 1, again even on the higher expected sales that as I mentioned, 3% to 5% growth. I would tell you that the growth next year is a little bit more weighted towards Missiles, but we do see growth in every segment and we also continue to see both domestic and international growth again next year. Specifically, on your question around margins, again, up slightly from 2017 for segment margins. And just to give a little bit of color, at this point, we do see some incremental improvement next year at IDS, to your question, they're executing well. We expect to get a little bit more of a lift in 2018 from IDS and also some improvement at IIS. Right now, we'd look at Missiles to be in line with 2017 and we do have some mix-driven headwind, if you will, at SAS. As I talked about earlier, strong cash flow in line with 2017. We're looking at higher cash flow being generated by the businesses, partially offsetting as we expected and have talked about before, higher pension contributions and higher cash taxes, mentioned the tax rate at 31%. And of course, we gave you the grid. I gave you the outlook or at least not the outlook, but the current status as of today for discount rate as well as the asset returns which – I know doesn't pinpoint it exactly, but think of it a little bit ahead of where the new outlook for 2017 is, plus or minus in the $400 million range for the FAS/CAS and I talked about Forcepoint. So hopefully, that helps you a little bit understand how we're thinking about things and again we'll go through more details by business in January.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment representing Baird. Please proceed.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Yeah. Good morning Tom, Toby.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Peter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Peter.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Tom, now that DOMino finally is under the Raytheon umbrella...
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hallelujah.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
It's great, great to see. How are you thinking about, just kind of similar kind of opportunities where you're doing this, protecting international – other international opportunities, I'm thinking about Raytheon Arabia, other kind of opportunities that you've kind of set up, where maybe you can bring a lot of the Raytheon cyber capabilities to – other countries?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So Peter, it's a great question. So, we'd actually have in another country implemented something very similar to the DOMino. And so, we're already off on the international side relative to cyber and doing those type of capabilities in terms of providing cybersecurity to governments. DOMino obviously gives us additional creds or credentials that will help us gain, I would say, more cybersecurity work worldwide. And so, we're already off leveraging that moving forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu representing Jefferies. Please proceed.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
You mentioned this one in your prepared remarks, so I thought I'd go back to it with the award from DGI on the satellite image payload.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah.
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC:
And this has been typically business for one of your peers. Can you just discuss overall what you're seeing in that imaging market and how this might open up more opportunities?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, I think we're seeing is that the commercial marketplace is driving to higher accuracy and much, much better data and they also want to be able to collect more data. And we're set up to do that, we've been doing that for decades for our government customers. One of the elements was getting our price point to a position where we could be competitive against commercial suppliers who, in this case, don't really have the same capabilities that we have. And so we're hitting the price point, but providing them a significantly enhanced performance and capability, which then they can then sell and package and add value relative to their customers.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
All right, I think we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us this morning. We'll look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter conference call on January. Katina.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC Matthew Akers - UBS Securities LLC Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies & Co. Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jasmine and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay proposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Jasmine. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that our growth strategy continued to gain traction in the second quarter. Revenue increased by 4.2% and was driven by demand from across our global customer base. Overall operating performance in the quarter was strong and our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow results were all ahead of our expectations. Because of these stronger-than-expected results, we are increasing our sales and EPS guidance for the year. Toby will walk you through the details in a few minutes. As our second quarter results show, we continue to see strong customer demand for many of our franchise programs. With that said, I'd like to take the next couple of minutes to discuss the solid progress we are making toward adding new franchises to our portfolio. During the quarter, we were awarded a highly competitive contract for the engineering and manufacturing development phase of the Three-Dimensional Expeditionary Long-Range Radar program, also known as 3DELRR. This is again based multifunction expeditionary radar for the U.S. Air Force that has been designed for export ability from inception. Over the lifetime of the program, we believe this is a multi-billion-dollar opportunity for the company. Beyond 3DELRR, we were also awarded $116 million contract in the second quarter for the risk reduction phase of the Long Range Precision Fires program for the U.S. Army. Raytheon is one of two competitors selected for this phase. Our solution is called DeepStrike, which doubles the firepower and extends the range over current systems by more than 40% and will replace the current ATACMS system. With DeepStrike, we have an innovative, highly competitive solution that significantly enhances the Army's long-range strike capability. U.S. Navy is also looking to enhance its ability to address threats from longer ranges, including over-the-horizon strike capability. To meet this demand, Raytheon, in collaboration with Kongsberg, is proposing the Naval Strike Missile. This is a fifth-generation long-range, precision strike weapon that can find and destroy enemy ships at distances of up to 100 nautical miles and is fully operational and in use today. And it meets or exceeds the U.S. Navy's over-the-horizon requirement for survivability against high-end threats. We expect the Navy's decision by the end of 2017. With this award, our goal would be to replace the existing domestic and international inventory of Harpoon missiles with the Naval Strike Missile. During the quarter, we also made progress on certain early-stage development technology that lays the foundation for potential future franchises. For example, Raytheon and the U.S. Army, in collaboration with the U.S. Special Operations Command, completed a successful flight test of a high-energy laser system aboard an Apache helicopter. The demonstration marks the first time that a fully integrated laser system successfully engaged and fired on a target from a rotary wing aircraft. In other areas of the company, particularly IIS, we have been successful on several opportunities that leverage our core capabilities in cyber, analytics and automation. These capabilities are further strengthened by our considerable expertise in advanced agile software development, rapid prototyping and sustainment, which collectively the U.S. Air Force has referred to as DevOps. Some recent successes include, in April, we were awarded a contract with an initial value of up to $375 million over six years to sustain and modernize the Air and Space Operations Center for the U.S. Air Force. Under this contract, Raytheon will maintain and update existing software as well as develop and deploy new software upgrades to improve our Air and Space Command and Control Operations. This award also creates an opportunity to expand into other areas, increasing the future potential revenue opportunity beyond the initial award. In early June, we were awarded the Systems and Computer Resources Support contract valued at up to $600 million for software support and sustainment to modernize missile defense and other strategic systems for the U.S. Army. Raytheon will support the Army's efforts to design, test and deploy software updates for critical systems used globally by U.S. combatant commands. And in mid-June, Raytheon was reaffirmed as the prime contractor and systems integrator for the Department of Homeland Security's Development, Operations and Maintenance program, also known as DOMino. With this award, Raytheon will help protect the networks of more than 100 federal government agencies. It's a strong validation of our cybersecurity capabilities. I would add that the last two of these three programs have been protested, which continues to be the norm in today's environment. Turning to international, last month, at the Paris Air Show, we hosted over 700 meetings with a wide range of global customers. Having spoken personally to customers there as well as on other customer visits, I can tell you that demand for our advanced solutions is strong and growing. And you are seeing this in our second quarter results where international revenue increased by a solid 4.3% and international bookings comprised 35% of our total bookings. One of the company's larger bookings in the quarter was a $619 million award for the restart in the Standard Missile-2 program. This award was funded by four international customers. Looking forward, we see the potential for even more opportunities for Standard Missile-2. Other new international opportunities also emerged in the second quarter. For example, in late June, the State Department filed Congressional Notification for a potential deal with Taiwan valued at up to $1.4 billion, approximately half of which we expect to book within the next 24 months. These programs include JSOW, torpedo, HARM missiles and Standard Missile-2s. This emerging opportunity reflects the continued solid demand we're seeing out of the Asia Pacific region. Over the past 13 years, we have increased our international revenue each year. To enable this, we have continuously adapted our international strategy to best position the company for growth. For example, in May, I had the honor of being part of the inaugural Saudi-U.S. CEO Forum. While there, I signed an MoU at a ceremony with King Salman and President Trump to cooperate on defense-related projects and technology developments in the Kingdom. The MoU also included a framework for Raytheon to establish a wholly-owned company in Saudi Arabia called Raytheon Arabia, which will significantly build on our more than 50-year history in the country. Turning now to Europe, we're making progress on multiple large international Patriot opportunities, including Poland and Romania. In Poland, we continue to expect the total value of this opportunity to be nearly $5 billion, broken into two phases. We're expecting an LOA for the initial phase to be signed by the end of this year at a value of over $1 billion, with a booking expected sometime in 2018. The recently announced Romania Patriot opportunity continues to move forward as well and is also likely to result in multiple awards. The initial LOA is expected by the end of 2017 for several hundred million dollars with a total Romania Patriot opportunity expected to be in the $2 billion range. Beyond Poland and Romania, we see additional Patriot opportunities in the region. In summary, we had a strong quarter and continue to see a wide range of opportunities to drive future growth. I'd like to thank the members of the Raytheon team for making it all possible quarter-after-quarter, year-after-year to delivering for our global customers and shareholders with our focus on execution, performance and innovative solutions. I'll now turn the call over to Toby. Toby?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the second quarter highlights. And then, we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to page three. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the second quarter with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the second quarter of $6.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04. Sales were $6.3 billion in the quarter, up 4.2%, led by our IDS, Missiles and Space and Airborne Systems businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.89, which I'll give a little more color on in a few minutes. We generated solid operating cash flow of $782 million in the second quarter which was better than our prior guidance, primarily driven by the timing of collections. During the quarter, the company repurchased 600,000 shares of common stock for $100 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 3.3 million shares for $500 million. Also, as previously announced, we repurchased $591 million in notes that were due in March and December of 2018. As a result, a non-operating charge of $39 million pre-tax or $0.09 per share associated with this early retirement of debt was recorded in other income and expense in the second quarter of 2017. As a reminder, last year included the ThalesRaytheonSystems transaction that resulted in a tax-free gain of $158 million at IDS or $0.53 per diluted share in our second quarter 2016 financial results. Before moving on, based upon our strong performance to-date, I also want to point out that for the second time this year we're raising the full year 2017 outlook for bookings, sales and EPS. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Company bookings for the second quarter were $6.5 billion and on a year-to-date basis were $12.2 billion. Worth noting that on a trailing four-quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.09. For the quarter, international was 35% of our total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 34%. For the year, we expect international to be about a third of total bookings. We've booked several significant awards in the second quarter, including $690 million for Paveway and $619 million on Standard Missile-2 in our Missile Systems business and $374 million on the Warfighter FOCUS Program at IIS. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was $36.2 billion, up over $1 billion compared to last year's second quarter. Approximately 42% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. If you now move to page 5, as I mentioned earlier, for the second quarter 2017, sales increased by a solid 4.2% and exceeded the high end of the guidance we set in April, primarily due to better-than-expected performance across several of the businesses. For the second quarter, our international sales were approximately 32% of total sales. Looking now at sales by business, IDS had second quarter 2017 net sales of $1.5 billion, up 5% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase in net sales for the quarter was driven primarily by higher net sales on an international early warning radar program awarded in the first quarter 2017. In the second quarter 2017, IIS net sales of $1.6 billion, down slightly from the same period last year, as expected. Missile Systems had second quarter 2017 net sales of $1.9 billion. The 11% increase from the second quarter 2016 was primarily due to higher volume on the Standard Missile-2, Standard Missile-3 and Paveway programs. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion. The 4% increase versus last year was driven by higher sales on a domestic classified program. And for Forcepoint, sales were in line with last year's second quarter. Moving ahead to page 6. Overall, the company continues to perform well. Our operating margin in the quarter was 13.5% for the total company and 12.4% on a business segment basis. It's worth noting that the impact of the TRS gain in the second quarter 2016 that I discussed earlier was worth about 260 basis points or 2.6 percentage points at the company level. Excluding this gain, our margins in the second quarter of 2017 were consistent year-over-year. So, looking now at the business margins. IDS second quarter 2017 operating margin was strong at 16.8%. Last year's second quarter operating margin at IDS included the TRS transaction, which was worth about 11.3 percentage points. IIS operating margin was down slightly compared to last year's second quarter. The decrease in margin at Missiles in the quarter compared with the same period last year was primarily driven by an expected change in program mix. We see Missiles operating margin improving in the back half of the year. SAS margin was up 30 basis points in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by a favorable change in program mix and other performance in the second quarter of 2017. And at Forcepoint, the second quarter 2017 operating margin, as expected, was lower than last year's comparable quarter, primarily due to planned investments to expand the sales force capacity, increase the new business pipeline and improve brand awareness. For the full year, we still expect their margins to be in the 10% to 11% range. Turning now to page 7. Second quarter 2017 EPS was $1.89, better than expected, primarily driven by higher sales and productivity, but lower than last year's second quarter due to both the $0.09 charge associated with the early retirement of debt in the second quarter of 2017 and the $0.53 gain from the TRS transaction in the second quarter of 2016. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we are increasing our full year 2017 guidance for sales and EPS to reflect our improved operating performance to-date compared to our prior guidance. We have increased the sales range by $200 million and now expect our full year 2017 net sales to be in a range of between $25.1 billion and $25.6 billion, up 4% to 6% from 2016. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. Turning to share count, we've tightened our diluted share count to approximately 292 million shares for 2017, a 2% reduction from prior year-end. We have slightly lowered our effective tax rate to reflect the improved tax benefit associated with stock-based compensation, which, in total, is worth about $0.03 per share for the full year. We now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30.5% for the year. We've increased our full year 2017 EPS by $0.10 from our prior guidance and now expect it to be in the range of $7.35 to $7.50. The increase is driven by our improved performance in the second quarter as well as the slight improvement to the effective tax rate. As I mentioned earlier, operating cash flow in the second quarter was higher than our prior expectations due to the timing of collections. We continue to see our 2017 operating cash flow outlook between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion. Similar to last year, our cash flow profile is more heavily weighted towards the fourth quarter due to the timing of program milestones and collections on some of our larger contracts. And as you can see on page nine, we've included guidance by business. We've increased the full year sales outlook at both Missile Systems and IIS to reflect a combination of stronger bookings performance to-date and second half expectations. Now turning to margin, we continue to see operating margin for the company to be in a range of 13.2% to 13.4% for the year. Before moving on to page 10, we're now raising our full year 2017 bookings outlook to a range of $26 billion to $27 billion. This reflects a $500 million increase to the prior range and is driven by strong demand from our global customers. This is the second $500 million increase to our bookings outlook this year. On page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the third quarter of 2017. We expect our third quarter sales to be in a range of $6.18 billion to $6.33 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $1.82 to $1.86. We expect operating cash flow to be in a range of $350 million to $450 million. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earnings calls with regards to our capital deployment strategy, we continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year and are targeting returning approximately 80% of free cash flow to shareholders, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In summary, if you stand back and look at the quarter, we had strong performance. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher than expected. Based on this performance and our second half expectations, we increased our full year 2017 outlook for bookings, sales and EPS. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
The first question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi. Please proceed.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jason.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Tom, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some bigger picture strategy issues here and talk about the new opportunities that you have in front of you and talk a little bit about the investments that you think you might need to make for these new opportunities, both in CapEx and R&D going forward. And then just kind of your teaming strategy at this point. Have there been any kind of changes to the way that you approach some of these new opportunities and the way that you team with people, given the ever-changing competitive dynamics that are going on out there? Thanks
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. So, Jason, we've discussed this before in the past, but we do focus on our four-pillar strategy. Obviously, our first pillar is to focus on where the Department of Defense is putting their emphasis. And then one of the big areas there is Integrated Air and Missile Defense, ballistic missile defense. We're heavily involved in that. And also in C5ISR, heavily involved in working those areas and winning significant contracts in those areas also, along with just pure cyber and also electronic warfare. The second area, which I believe is a new emerging area, is the area of high-energy lasers. I mentioned that a little bit in our script and in the work we've done on a laser pod and put it on a helicopter. Why a helicopter? Well, a helicopter has one of the worst vibration environments that you'd have to be in, in terms of using a high-energy laser system. So we really wanted to stress our systems and its capabilities and show that that capability – the design that we had could withstand the high vibration environment of a helicopter. We're also heavily invested in hypersonics. We recently won a major program from DARPA called the Hawk program and so working on that very hard. In addition to that, also working in the undersea area. So bottom line is pushing those areas significantly. I think the other area, back to our franchises – I did mention one in my script, the Naval Strike weapon. And that is a teaming arrangement with Kongsberg. We have teamed with Kongsberg in the past on major systems, major franchises. The other major franchise is a NASAM system where we team with Kongsberg. And we've been very successful on that in the nation's capital. Another major project is in Oman and in four other countries and have significant opportunities for that system in both the Europe and also in the Middle East. And bottom line is that we're pressing on all fronts, new technologies, existing technologies across – and developing and increasing the franchises we have.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And, Tom, maybe I'll just add, Jason, to your point about the investment related to CapEx. We've talked about how we have seen an increase in our CapEx spending as we look to invest in ourselves to support growth and efficiency initiatives. Looking forward, for 2018, we're not ready to give any outlook for 2018. We're in the early stages of our planning process and we'll give more color on the Q3 call. But what I can tell you is sitting here today, relative to CapEx, we could see some continued growth next year to grow the business and then start to see it come back down and level back down to levels lower than we've seen in the last couple years as well.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please proceed.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, Tom and Toby.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Peter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Peter.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Could you – on IIS, you mentioned in the press release the classified bookings of $555 million. It really seems like that business is really performing well and we're seeing that on the top line. Can you give us any color like if it's just the mix of business or competitive pricing, like, in regarding kind of the op margins and the opportunity to maybe to increase those? Or just maybe some more color on what's going on behind the scenes there.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes. So, Peter, let me start. And then if Tom wants to jump in, he can. So we raised – I'll kind of start at a high level, right. We raised the outlook or the guidance for IIS revenue this year. And this was due to two things. We're seeing some increase to our continued demand, both domestically and international for training in support of the Warfighter program. And the work on that current vehicle we expect to go well into 2018. And additionally, Tom talked about in his script some of the recent competitive wins that you just alluded to as well, in our cyber and C5ISR areas. And we do expect those will be starting to pick up a little bit from a volume point of view in the second half. As it relates to the margins, IIS this year – they're on track on a year-to-date basis. And we see them performing well in the back half of the year. We've got a range of 7.4% to 7.6%. We feel good about that. From a longer-term perspective, you've got to keep in mind that almost definitionally they're a little constrained, right, because they are the business in the company that has the highest amount of cost type work and the lowest amount of international work. And just definitionally around that, you're going to see some constraints. I would say under the current book of business, mix of business, there's opportunity to improve compared to the over time – not year-over-year, but over time. And maybe an optimal margin for them would be 8% to 8.5%, given their current book of business. But we are focused. As Tom talked about, we have a four-pillar strategy. A component of that is international and there are some opportunities that the team at IIS is looking at internationally. If we could get a little bit more traction there that potentially would bode well for margin expansion at IIS.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hi, Tom. I thought maybe we could talk about the cash deployment. You've given yourselves a little bit of flexibility here saying 80% returned to shareholders and 20% presumably not being returned to shareholders. What do you anticipate that money being spent on? I guess, it's M&A, but what are you seeing out there in the pipeline?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, as you know, Rob, we have a balanced capital deployment strategy. And in that strategy, number one is to invest in ourselves to grow the business. And we've been on a growth campaign here for over four years. We're very successful on that growth campaign. We are winning quite a few contracts. And these are franchise type contracts moving forward, which is going to significantly help us over the next five years relative to revenue expansion. So we believe we are making those right investments in a balanced way. The other, obviously, big part of our strategy is total shareholder return to our shareholders. And so we are a strong proponent on the dividend and making sure that we support that over the years. And the other area is and we did mention a little bit on the share buyback when appropriate. We do make the shareholder buyback as part of this overall capital deployment plan. But, right now, the focus definitely is on growth and expansion. Right now, the properties out there relative to acquisitions in the defense market are kind of high. So we haven't seen anything attractive. But if there is something out there that makes sense, we always look at them and determine whether it's the best value for us and, obviously, our shareholders.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And, Rob, I'd just add that the 80% is a target. I think if you look back over the last few years, we were on average a little bit higher than that, not the 20% higher that you mentioned, but a little bit higher. And the other thing that we have done more often than not is made discretionary contributions into our pension plan when we think that it makes sense. And as we always do, we'll look at that later this year as well.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. So DoD Secretary Mattis has been pretty clear that he wants to accelerate procurement of precision-guided munitions in the 2018 budget. So I wanted to ask you in that vein, Tom, for a little bit more color. You've talked about your various programs, but can you get a little bit more specific on the type of growth in production rates that we're looking at for the various programs, like Tomahawk, SM-6, Paveway, SM-3, et cetera?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, number one is we're definitely in support of the Secretary of Defense's position relative to getting the readiness level up of our forces. And one element of getting the readiness up is weapons systems, including missiles and munitions and precision munitions. So we have seen an up-tempo definitely starting several years back, but internationally. We are now starting to see a domestic uptick, obviously in line with the Secretary's request. We are working that. Turns out we do have the production capacity to continue to grow in terms of our missile production. We've been working on that very hard here over the last three years, anticipating this need for a replenishment of missiles and munitions and are prepared to support the Secretary in his strategy to significantly increase the readiness of our forces.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about Missile Systems. Just looking at where you are for the first half – I know you said you're confident that you can still get there for the year, but why will margins step up so much? Are there milestones, risk reduction? Is there a mix change? What's happening to drive those margins up in the second half of the year?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes. Sure, Sam. I'll hit that. So starting with Q2 2017, Missiles margin was in line with our expectations. As we talked about, it was lower than last year, primarily due to mix as well as the timing of some net productivity adjustments. And on a year-to-date basis, their margin is in line with year-to-date 2016 as well. We do expect sequential, right, to Q3 to Q4 improvement in the back half. We're going to be ramping up on some of our production programs. There are some major milestones and risk retirement assumptions in the back half of the year that are expected to generate productivity from factory efficiencies. And also, we see some higher operating leverage and the benefit of that flowing through in the back half of the year. So it's a combination of a couple, three things that are driving it. But we're confident in the outlook for the full year.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to get back to maybe Rob Stallard's question on capital deployment, but in an inverse way. Forcepoint, you've had it since 2015, and I think the CEO of Forcepoint been talking about, longer term, the optionality of an IPO. Just curious, Tom, your view on what you've been able to do with it inside the firm versus what its potential could be outside the firm. And, conversely, I know it's a couple steps forward, but what would you do with the proceeds of kind of reclaiming the capital that you put into it? Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
First of all, we have no plans at this time in place to do an IPO in the near future. And so I'll take that off the table. This is a longer-term play for the company. And the overall focus and strategy for this was to break out the value we have associated with our deep cyber domain capabilities inside the company. Since 2007, we acquired 14 cybersecurity-related companies to give us the technology to protect ourselves in the cyber domain, to protect our customers and also to protect the weapon systems and solutions that we provide. So we did that just to essentially stay in the business and be a business leader in cyber secured systems that we deliver to the Warfighter. As part of developing that technology, we believe we have some great opportunities to help the commercial sector. And the reason for creating a Forcepoint company was to allow us to break out that value for the commercial world, but at the same time help the commercial world in terms of protecting themselves. And, I think, right now, we're seeing a significant advantage of having Forcepoint not only for ourselves internally. They've helped actually with some of their solutions strengthen our cybersecurity within Raytheon, also with our supply chain, our business partners and now the entire commercial space in terms of the industrial base for the nation.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Tom, and I'll just – relative, Myles, to your question, about if and when there was some type of liquidity event, what will we do with the proceeds. I think the way for investors to think about that, we would consider that under the framework of the balanced capital deployment that Tom mentioned a little while ago and that we've been focused on here for several years. Probably premature to give you anything more than that because it would also depend upon what's happening in the market, in the overall defense environment, where the rest of the company is at, the outlook for the company. But needless to say, what we would do is do and use those proceeds with creating incremental shareholder value, which, if you go back to Tom's comments, that was the whole play in why we created Forcepoint. So that hasn't changed from what our original objective was.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen & Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes. Thank you very much. So yesterday, Northrop talked of JSTARS' decision slipping into the first quarter of next year and yet you have increased your bookings target by $500 million. Maybe give us some color on the key potentials you think both domestic and international that could fall into this year and those potentials that you feel are much more likely next year. For example, Lockheed talks of a potential THAAD order. Is that something that's in your thoughts for this year or is that a next year opportunity? Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Okay, Cai. Let me address that first and then I'll have Toby jump in. We are – have significant opportunities, both on the domestic front, and I think, which is maybe a little bit different than some of our peers. We have a significant amount of international, also, opportunities. And I mentioned them in my script. Obviously, there's the Poland, the Patriot. There's the Romania Patriot deal. We have – and that's – all those deals are late 2017, early 2018. We have significant other opportunities relative to – in IDS, for example, close to $6 billion of bookings for the year and most of it related in the Middle East. Also have some other opportunities relative to C4I internationally that we'll be bringing in this year. And, obviously, in our Missile business, you saw the significant uptick there in demand, actually a prior question here relative to Secretary Mattis, in increasing the readiness of our forces, needing a strong upside tick in terms of procurement of missiles and precision munitions. So bottom line is that the demand signal has significantly increased here over the last several years, but the increase is both on the international front and also on the domestic front. And on the international front, you can see just through my script it's coming not just from the Middle East, but it's also coming from the Asia Pacific. Remember, I mentioned Taiwan. And also we have uptick from South Korea and Japan, and then also in Europe. I mean, we saw the Poland, Romania and there are several other countries in Europe that are also looking to procure solutions from Raytheon. Bottom line is a very strong pipeline that allowed us to increase the bookings for $1 billion this year over our initial plan. And moving out into 2018, we feel that there's a significant strong pipeline to continue that growth through the next several years.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. And, Cai, I would just add, and Tom just mentioned, the $1 billion that we increased this year, the $500 million you referred to, $500 million in Q1. That increase is 50%/50% domestic/international, which plays along with what Tom just said. The other thing that's interesting this year we've already recorded in the first half of the year, from a dollar value perspective, our two largest bookings with the Qatar EWR back in Q1 and the Paveway orders that we talked about here in Q2. So in the back half of the year, we don't have any big binary billion, $2 billion type of orders. And I think what that speaks to is the strength of the portfolio across the businesses. We do have maybe a dozen or so different opportunities, again, spread across the businesses in the $200 million, $300 million, $400 million or $500 million range. But that's one thing that's a little different, I think, in a positive way, around the complexion of the bookings this year perhaps compared to past years.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
And, Cai, I'd' just like to jump on Toby's last statement about the diversity of the pipeline that we have. That's one of the things that we've been working on very hard here over the last four years, to increase the diversity of our pipeline. So we're not reliant on any one or two or three awards to go make our plan or to grow the company. And we think we have the most diverse opportunity pipeline that we've ever had in the history of the company today.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with UBS. Please proceed.
Matthew Akers - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. It's actually Matt on for David. Thanks for taking the question.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Matt.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Matt.
Matthew Akers - UBS Securities LLC:
I was wondering – I think you've talked in the past about Patriot modernization opportunities. I don't know. I think you've kind of sized what that opportunities that's out there. Maybe you could just refresh us and list all of that.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me jump on that. I mean there's something called Configuration 3+ that we've been working through and upgrading the 14 nations that have decided to procure the Patriot system. And so we're working through those. We have about 41 fire units to be upgraded from there. And that is kind of about greater than $4 billion of opportunities out there, just on that. And that's just the upgrades. That's not buying new fire units. I think the thing that we're seeing a little different than we saw in the past we're having these countries that have Patriot today actually buying brand-new fire units. So over and above the, we call it, the configuration upgrade, they're buying brand-new systems. That's one. And the other one is we are moving forward and have developed a new radar for the Patriot system that allows us to see much further, to track multiple targets simultaneously in a way we haven't been able to do before. But the bottom line is to significantly upgrade the capability of the Patriot system. And all the countries that have Patriot today – this will be a radar that they'll want to upgrade their system to, to provide enhanced capability against the evolved threat. So we see significant opportunity here over the next decade relative to Patriot in configuration updates, the buying of brand-new fire units, and now with the opportunity to upgrade with a GaN-based 360-degree AESA radar to significantly upgrade the overall capability of the Patriot systems they have today.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please proceed.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Doug.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
It's been a little more than a month now that we've – the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has been in place. A while back, we saw the F-15 orders still take place in Qatar. Given the importance of the Gulf to you all, what do see right now as the risks there, politically? Any effect it's having on your business? And what do you watch to see if it could be an issue?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I'll take that on. As I have talked to, actually, the majority of the stakeholders or parties involved in the situation, as you probably know, the administration has voiced its opinion relative to getting this issue resolved within the GCC and is actually helping negotiate a settlement on the issue. Relative to Raytheon, we don't believe this has any impact on our 2017 guidance. We believe that everything we have in play in all of our outlook here is fine relative to any issue there. We have been awarded contracts from these countries during this period. And so we, right now, do not see any issue.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Richard Safran with Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, Todd, good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
So, Tom, I'd like to follow up here a little bit more on your remarks you were talking about a minute ago on international, the President, Saudi, and that every time you speak, things are getting better on international markets. Now some of your competitors have noted the Trump administration acting as chief salesperson for U.S. defense exports, also significant improvements in attitudes at State and also an improved regulatory environment for defense. So I'm trying to get at the underlying causes for the enormous success you're having on international markets and the strong pipeline. I mean, are you already benefiting from an improvement in the regulatory environment? Is that causing you to be more competitive internationally? Because of the administration's actions and based on your ongoing discussions with customers, are you expecting more of these bundled deals going forward? And I guess you've already stated that you believe that international growth is sustainable long-term.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Rich, thanks for the questions. Great questions. So let me start with this comment first. When we compete internationally, when Raytheon competes internationally, we do not compete against companies. We compete against countries. So, having an administration that supports industry in going after international business changes the game. And we have an administration now that is significantly supporting international work for domestic – actually U.S. industry. And that has opened several doors for us. Now we've been very successful before those doors were opened. So it's bottom line just accelerating our ability to grow internationally. And so that's why we're very positive about the future of the company, especially relative to the international business. And we're also seeing, as was mentioned on another question before, a significant push by the Secretary of Defense to significantly increase the capabilities of our military in terms of readiness, which puts a significant demand signal on our missile systems, our sensors, precision munitions across the board. So Raytheon has a very healthy outlook for the future and we're just building on the international foundation we put in place before and are able to accelerate now with the support from an administration that does support international sales.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes, Toby. I wanted to ask, the corporate and eliminations line, which is usually like negative $20 million, it's plus $3 million. And I know it was plus last year, too, but it was one of the keys to your guidance increase, lowering that number. So just wondering if you could explain that. And then just a quick comment, since – why don't you provide, like, a net book-to-bill number to eliminate the issue that the bookings less sales never gets added to the backlog? It always gets something else added. Or just provide some reconciliation of it. Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, George. I'll take care of your second question first and I'll maybe help you with the reconciliation. We did have backlog adjustments in the quarter. They were about $135 million. So that hopefully should explain the gap there between the bookings and the sales. Relative to the first part of your question on the corporate-related expenses, there's nothing individually driving that, but we do see some lower expenses for this year compared to when we started the year. But from a total year perspective, still maybe a tad higher, a little bit higher than they were last year in 2016.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. Toby, maybe could you talk a little bit more. You mentioned the potential for pension contributions, the degree to which that is dependent on tax reform and how you think about that in two scenarios, one, where we have tax reform and, one, where we don't? And also, given the strength of the balance sheet, in a tax reform scenario to get the benefit of the deduction, is there an opportunity, maybe, to make a much more significant contribution to the pension that would affect the longer-term cash flow profile of the company?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So, Seth, I think, one thing, tax reform or no tax reform aside, right, we always wait towards the end of the year to make a decision on what we're going to do with pension, right. We have a better idea of where we think returns are going to end up, what's happened with rates going forward, et cetera. So that will continue on. Tax reform is a variable, but I'd also say after a lot of potential momentum earlier in the year, maybe not so much, I think, as everybody has seen lately. But we will take tax reform into account when we make our decision and where tax reform is and whether or not that has a favorable or unfavorable impact on what we do. Obviously, we don't know what tax reform would look like exactly, so it's a little hard to specifically answer that question. Obviously, sustainable tax reform that continues to support investments and high-tech jobs here in the states, we're all for that. And that would improve – something meaningful would improve the cash flow outlook for the corporation compared to everything else being equal. And if that happens, we'll update you guys. But, again, maybe a little bit of a broken record, but we'll think about that under our balanced framework approach to capital deployment.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies & Co.:
Thank you very much. Tom, I want to go back to Forcepoint. I know it's the smallest business unit, but it looks like revenues are a little bit on the light side. And could you talk about some of the challenges you're facing in the market?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me just start off. When we talked about this earlier in the year, that this was a year that we were going to restructure some of the – maybe you can call it the backroom for Forcepoint. We've grown that from $250 million a year in revenue to $600 million. So we were stressing the backroom quite a bit relative to being able to support a business of that size. So we did make a decision this year to take kind of a timeout to get their backroom up and make the investments in the backroom to get them ready to go and accelerate here in 2018. And so that was one of the things that we talked about earlier. Relative to their product line, they are updating several of their product lines and integration. One of the big areas that they're pushing heavily and getting a lot of demand signal for is in the area of data leakage prevention, DLP, combined with the insider threat capability and working on that to get that product in an enhanced position for the marketplace. So we're also doing that to help accelerate revenue in 2018.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And I think, Howard, you didn't get into the numbers, but in my comments, I mentioned how sales in the quarter at Forcepoint were in line with last year. That was lower than we were looking at going into the quarter by about $10 million. I think if there's any good news there, that variance is really driven by timing of awards. The thing, we had some, dozen or so, awards that moved from Q2 into Q3. We didn't lose those, so there's some good news there. And think about half of those we've already closed on here in the first couple, three weeks of July as well. So, a little bit of timing that the team's dealing with there and on top of what Tom said.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Matt McConnell with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Matt.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Matt.
Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Just a quick follow-up on that point. How about the pace of investments at Forcepoint? And could you just update us on kind of an expected margin trajectory in that business?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So we talked about back in our year-end call and in the first quarter call that this year Forcepoint has about $25 million of expense included in their margin outlook related to investment, about 40% of that in the first half of the year and about 60% in the second half, kind of, sort of, split 50%/50% between Q3 and Q4 in the back half of the year. And then from a longer-term point of view, and consistent with this, that we expect continued double-digit growth and double-digit margins from Forcepoint.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Noah.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Back to Missile and the discussion of the inventory depletion and, I guess, drivers of that business. So with the growth rate going into the low-double-digits in the quarter and then, I guess, the guidance for the year implies that kind of stays there in the back half, should we be – I guess, how sustainable is that? Should we be thinking about that as the growth rate into 2018? And then bigger picture, when you guys talk about a lot of the funding there recently having been from inventory depletion and now moving to actual funding, the driver there being readiness, are you actually able to quantify how far below normal levels, both the U.S. and our allies, are compared to where they want to be?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Let me start on that last question. Number one is we actually cannot provide you an answer on how low they are. That would be an issue we'd have with those customers. But I can tell you there is significant demand signal being driven by the up-tempo that is going on around the world today. And so that's driving, number one, the overall replenishment for the United States and its coalition partners around the world. And so we're off driving that. One thing I would like you to also bring to bear here is that missiles does not just do precision munitions. They also do missiles for ballistic missile defense. They also do air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles, surface-to-surface missiles. And so they have – the demand signal is across their entire portfolio. The precision munition is one aspect of it, but we're also seeing strong demand. I think we just mentioned it. We just opened the Standard Missile-2 line again, driven by four international customers' demands. And then we're seeing additional demands now from other international customers for Standard Missile-2s around the world. So the bottom line is Missiles has a very healthy pipeline that is increasing. So we're very, I'd say, up on Missiles over the next five years.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And, Noah, just to touch a little bit on your comment about 2018 growth and all. So we're not going to get into any details here on 2018, but I can tell you, we do expect continued growth for Missiles. And maybe what I could point you to that help support that is if you were to go back and look over the last couple of years at the Missiles book-to-bill, last year, it was about 1.13. It was almost 1.3 in 2015. Here in the second quarter, they had 1.48. And we expect for the total year this year, they'll be well over 1, which, again, supports the continued growth for the Missiles business.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
All right. Well, I think, we're out of time here for today. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jasmine.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. So you all have a great day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC Finbar Thomas Sheehy - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC Kristine Tan Liwag - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shelley and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay proposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Shelley. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters we discuss today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives, and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. We're off to a strong start in 2017 as we continue to build on our momentum from last year. In the first quarter, sales increased by over 3%. This growth, combined with operating margin expansion, drove strong EPS performance. I'm also pleased to report that all of the businesses met or exceeded our expectations in the quarter. Bookings were solid and our backlog increased by 5.5%. Overall, our growth strategy continues to be well aligned with the needs of our global customers. And you're seeing this in our operating results. Toby will take you through the quarter's financials and the increases to our sales and EPS guidance in a few minutes. I'd like to take a moment to talk about the threat environment. It continues to evolve and is driving a significant increase in demand signals from every one of our major global markets. Whether it's capability for strike, integrated air and missile defense, or long-range sensing capabilities, Raytheon is at the forefront providing high technology solutions for our customers' most complex challenges. Key areas, where we see strong future opportunity are the sea and undersea domains. As we have discussed on prior calls, Raytheon is a leader in providing the next generation of GaN-based navel radars. Our solutions include the air and missile defense radar and the enterprise air surveillance radar for the U.S. Navy and international customers. Together, these will form the backbone of radar capabilities for the allied surface fleets of the future. We are making considerable progress towards delivering these advanced capabilities. To that end, in the first quarter, AMDR successfully completed its first test which called on the radar to acquire and then track an advanced ballistic missile target, a significant milestone for the system. Our development work on AMDR continues and the program is expected to enter low rate initial production this year. Beyond radars, Raytheon also provides a broad set of naval missile defense and strike systems, which include Tomahawk, which just this month again proved its value as the weapon of choice for standoff engagement, protecting the warfighter and achieving a critical mission. We're adding new capabilities to Tomahawk that will enable it also to engage maritime targets, providing the Navy with a much longer reach. While Tomahawk has been in the headlines lately, let me also remind you about SM-6 and SM-3, which provides the Navy with over-the-horizon air and missile defense capabilities. In fact, in the first quarter, the latest version of SM-3 Block IIA, which we are co-developing with Japan achieved a significant milestone and successfully completed its first intercept of a target resembling an advanced ballistic missile threat. This intercept is an important demonstration of the new missiles capabilities and the program is on track for deployment in the 2018 timeframe. We also have many other ship protection systems that include the Evolved Seasparrow Missile, Rolling Airframe Missile and the Phalanx as well as the Mark 54 Torpedo. To maximize the effect in this of all of these systems, we provide ship-based strategic communication systems and advanced command and control such as the Cooperative Engagement Capability. CEC ensures that the Navy has advantageous situational awareness of the battlefield through superior networks and shared sensor information. CEC is a key element in Naval Integrated Fire Control-Counter Air capability. Another key growth opportunity for us is in the area of advanced sonar programs for the U.S. Navy. This month, we were pleased to have our award for the new variable-depth sonar program affirmed. While the award is initially for the Littoral Combat Ship, this advanced sonar program will ultimately allow us to deliver game-changing capability to the entire fleet. This is one of the most significant anti-submarine warfare opportunities of the decade positioning us well on a number of new programs going forward. And we see a number of classified undersea opportunities that should drive future growth as well. So as you can see, we have a broad portfolio of sea and undersea capabilities and we are well-positioned for future growth in modernizing the Navy fleet and the fleets of our allies. Now turning to the quarter, bookings exceeded our expectations and included the $1 billion award for the Qatar early warning radar as well as a number of awards for missiles and radars. Based on this and new opportunities, we are raising our bookings outlook for the year to a range of $25.5 billion to $26.5 billion, an increase of $500 million. Revenue increased by 3.4% in the quarter and was driven largely by a growth of 7.5% in our international business. International comprised 32% of our total sales in the quarter. We also saw strong sales growth in our domestic classified business of 6.4%. Last year's record classified bookings were a key driver behind this quarter's continued strong classified revenue growth. As we look forward, we are making progress on a number of large international opportunities. For Poland Patriot, as announced last month, an updated LOR is being provided to the U.S. government with an estimated value for us of up to $5 billion. Patriot will provide the Polish government with integrated air and missile defense capabilities to meet the threat today with an upgrade path to new GaN-based radars that will address the threats of tomorrow, a key competitive discriminator for the customer. Later this year, we expect the Polish Ministry of Defense to sign an LOA with the U.S. government, which will make Poland the 14th country to utilize Patriot. Beyond Poland, we see other opportunities for Patriot in Europe, driven by customer demand due to evolving threats to the region. These opportunities, in combination with demand for additional fire units and upgrades for existing customers in other regions, continue to demonstrate the strength of the Patriot franchise. Earlier this month, Raytheon Australia announced that it has been selected to be the sole bidder for the country's ground-based air defense system. This system will provide the innermost layer of Australia's enhanced integrated air and missile defense capability. Our offering, which would be produced in cooperation with Australian industry, is initially based on our NASAMS system and represents an opportunity of up to $1 billion for Raytheon. This award is currently expected in the 2019 timeframe. Following the award of Qatar EWR in the first quarter, we continue to see growing interest from customers in the MENA region for long-range surveillance capabilities. This includes significant additional demand for early warning radars, as well as our TPY-2 X-Band radars in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe. To meet future threats, we've continued to evolve TPY-2. Last year, we received a contract from our domestic customer to incorporate GaN technology into the TPY-2 radars. This provides a potentially significant future upgrade opportunity for the existing global inventories. Now turning to domestic. While the debate about government funding levels is ongoing, we are optimistic that the longer-term budget trends will be favorable. For us, we see a number of key opportunities developing across multiple domains as the Department of Defense looks to invest in new technologies to deter rapidly evolving threats and fund increases and readiness to meet high operating tempo requirements. Before concluding, I'd like to mention, in the last month, we announced an 8.9% increase in our dividend. This marks the 13th consecutive year of increasing dividends at Raytheon. Our solid growth, operating performance, and strong alignment with our global customer needs provide us the flexibility to continue to execute our balanced capital deployment strategy. A key priority of this strategy continues to be paying a competitive, sustainable dividend. I would like to thank the Raytheon team for their dedication to delivering world-class solutions for our warfighters, as well as their commitment to creating value for all of our stakeholders. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the first quarter highlights. And then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would turn to page 3. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the first quarter with bookings, sales and EPS better than our expectations. After this good start, we're raising our full year outlook for all three of these measures, which I'll discuss further in just a few minutes. We had solid bookings in the first quarter of $5.7 billion and sales in the quarter were $6 billion, up 3.4%, led by our IDS and SAS businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.73 which I'll give a little more color on in just a moment. During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.7 million shares of common stock for $400 million. And as a reminder, effective January 1, 2017, we adopted the new revenue recognition standard. The 2016 results have been recast to reflect this change. Turning now to page 4. Let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the first quarter were $5.7 billion, which were ahead of our expectations and down slightly from the same period last year. And on a trailing four quarter basis, our total book-to-bill ratio is 1.12. International awards represented 33% of the total bookings, an increase of approximately 14% over last year's first quarter. A couple of key bookings in the first quarter included the $1 billion award for the upgraded early warning radar for Qatar at IDS, $256 million for active electronically scanned array radars at SAS, and at missiles over $200 million on AIM-9X Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missiles. Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $36.1 billion, an increase of approximately $1.9 billion or 5.5% compared to the first quarter 2016. It's worth noting that approximately 41% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. We now move to page 5. As I just mentioned, for the first quarter 2017, sales were higher than the guidance we set in January. Sales were particularly strong at both IDS and at SAS. We expect sales for the company to increase throughout the year with a strong second half driven by our bookings over the past several quarters. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had first quarter net sales of $1.4 billion. The increase from Q1 2016 was primarily driven by higher sales on an international early warning radar program. We expect IDS sales to increase through the year as some of our larger international programs continue to ramp up. In the first quarter, IIS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year the change, as expected, was primarily due to lower net sales on an international classified program which substantially completed in 2016. Missile Systems had net sales of $1.8 billion, up slightly compared with the same period last year. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion. Higher sales on electronic warfare systems program contributed to the 8% increase versus last year. And for Forcepoint, sales were up about 4% in the quarter. Moving ahead to page 6, let me spend a few minutes talking about our margins. We delivered strong margin performance in the quarter. Our operating margin was 12.4% for the total company, up 180 basis points, and 11.8% on a business segment basis, an increase of 160 basis points. Margin improvement in the first quarter of 2017 was driven by favorable program mix with some of our largest international awards progressing through their lifecycle. And, as a reminder, in the first quarter of 2016, at IDS, we had a $36 million unfavorable program adjustment that impacted their margins. At Forcepoint, as expected, the first quarter 2017 operating margin was down for the quarter. This is due to the internal investment to support Forcepoint's long-term growth that we discussed on the earnings call in January. We remain focused on margin improvement going forward and see our business segment margins in the 12.4% to 12.6% range for the full year, consistent with the guidance we laid out in January. We also see our margin improving as we move throughout the year. Turning now to page 7. First quarter 2017 EPS of $1.73 was up 21% from last year's first quarter and was better than expected. This year-over-year increase was largely driven by higher volume and margin expansion. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2017 to reflect our improved performance to-date. We're increasing our full year 2017 net sales range by $100 million, which favorably impact EPS by about $0.04. This increase is driven by higher expected sales at our Missile Systems business. We now expect net sales to be in the range of between $24.9 billion and $25.4 billion. For the year, we expect sales to be up 3% to 5% from 2016. Earlier this month, we gave notice to redeem $591 million in notes that were due in March and December of 2018. As a result, in the second quarter of 2017, we expect to record a non-operating charge associated with the make-whole provision related to the early retirement of debt. This charge of approximately $40 million pre-tax or $26 million after-tax based upon current market conditions impacts EPS by $0.09 and has been included in our updated EPS guidance. We're also reducing the range of our interest expense to be between $196 million and $201 million to reflect this early retirement of debt. This is expected to reduce our interest expense primarily in both the third and fourth quarters worth about $0.04 to EPS compared to our prior guidance. We have slightly lowered our effective tax rate to reflect the improved benefit associated with stock-based compensation and various other items, which in total is worth about $0.06 for the full year. We now expect our full year effective tax rate to be approximately 31%. Looking at our EPS guidance, we exceeded the high-end of our guidance in the first quarter by $0.18. For the year, due to the strong first quarter operating performance, we are raising guidance by $0.05 after absorbing a net $0.05 financing charge that was not in our prior guidance. The remaining $0.08 is due to timing within the year. And as a result, we now expect our full year EPS to be in a range of between $7.25 and $7.40. As I discussed earlier, we repurchased 2.7 million shares of common stock for $400 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 291 million and 293 million shares for 2017, a 2% reduction at the midpoint of the range. Operating cash flow in the first quarter was essentially in line with our prior expectations and was slightly impacted by the higher sales we saw in the first quarter. We continue to see our full year 2017 operating cash flow outlook between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion. And, as you can see on page 9, we've included guidance by business, which reflects the higher net sales at Missile Systems that I mentioned earlier. Before moving on to page 10, as Tom mentioned earlier, we're now raising our full year 2017 bookings outlook to be between $25.5 billion and $26.5 billion. This $500 million increase is driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. On page 10, we provided you with our outlook for the second quarter of 2017. As we mentioned on our last call, we still expect the cadence for the balance of 2017 to play out similar to 2016 with sales, EPS and operating cash flow ramping up in the second half of the year. I want to point out that we expect second quarter sales to be in a range of $6.05 billion to $6.2 billion and EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in a range of $1.67 to $1.71. It's important to note that we expect the tax rate to be approximately 29.5% in the quarter, lower than the full year, primarily due to the timing of the benefit associated with stock-based compensation. Again, I want to reiterate that our second quarter EPS outlook includes an estimated unfavorable $40 million pre-tax or $0.09 EPS impact to non-operating income associated with the early retirement of debt. This charge will be recorded in other income and expense. Before concluding, I'd like to spend a minute on our balanced capital deployment strategy. As we said on the call in January, we expect the full year 2017 share buyback to approximate 2016's levels. And as mentioned earlier, we recently raised the dividend by 8.9%. We continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year and target returning approximately 80% of free cash flow to shareholders, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In summary, we saw a good performance in the first quarter. Our bookings were strong, sales and EPS from continuing operations were higher than the guidance we set in January and our operating cash flow remains on track for the year. With that, Tom and I will now open the call up for questions.
Operator:
In the interest of time and to allow for broader participation, you are asked to limit yourself to one question. And the first question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Cai, are you there?
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Me?
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Hello, Cai.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Hello?
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Hi, Cai.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Yes. Can you hear me?
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Yes.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC:
Okay. So you mentioned the heightened global threat environment. Could you talk specifically about the opportunities first for additional orders for SM-3 and SM-6 from our Asian allies given the heightened threat from North Korea? And also in the Mid-East, your partner on THAAD, Lockheed, continues to talk about potential foreign order this year. It requires the TPY-2 and yet you're talking about not getting an order until next year.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. Let me – okay. Actually both of those questions are very good news. The first question is on the SM-3 and SM-6. It ties into the readiness moving forward. I'm sure you've heard that one of the elements of Trump's defense policy is to make sure we have the appropriate readiness for our entire fighting forces, including the Navy, in this case, both the SM-3 and SM-6. So we're looking to see in terms of the overall readiness potentially some additional funds in the area of missiles to essentially replenish, but also to make sure they have enough of these systems to protect the fleet. On the other side of this, the other element you mentioned was the international. So, both the SM-3, for example, Block IIA has been co-developed with Japan. So, Japan will buy many of the SM-3 Block IIAs. On the SM-6, the U.S. government has authorized SM-6 to some of our coalition partners. And so we are working through that right now to determine how many they will buy over the next five years. Back over to your other question relative to THAAD, you're absolutely correct. We are a major player on THAAD. Our TPY-2 radars, for example, are a major element of that system. And there are multiple opportunities in the Middle East. For example, Qatar has said that they are interested in buying THAAD and also the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And, right now, in our, I would say, conservative outlook, we have those occurring in 2018 and beyond. So, I think, that's exactly how we have it set today.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of David Strauss with UBS. Please proceed.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Tom, in the press release as regards IDS, you talked about a favorable change in program mix contributing to the margins. I think that's the first time we've heard that in quite a while with regard to IDS. Can you just give a little bit more detail on the mix, where we stand today and how that's going to progress going forward? And what that means for margin? Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, for example, IDS, right now has a significant number of Patriot orders being accomplished in the factory. So we always talk about that – the lifecycle. When you get the orders in, you essentially reestablishing the factory line and moving forward, but right now, that factory line has been reestablished and has been very productive. And that's what you're seeing in terms of that flowing down to the improvement in the margins on that.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
And Tom or David, I'd just add the following from a big Patriot point of view with IDS. A lot of talk about their margins over the last couple years. I think as we closed out the back half of 2016, we saw the margins improving there as we had indicated they would. They are off to a solid start this year with regard to their Q1 margin. The rate they achieved in the quarter is just below the guidance for the year and they had strong sales. The margin – they did exceed in Q1, exceeded our expectations, primarily due to the earlier timing on some program improvements partly related to the mix. And when we look at the full year, at IDS, we expect to see margins improve a bit more because of the mix that you referred to and increased productivity. Recall as well that, in 2016, IDS did have the exit from the business venture. So when you look at IDS, excluding the impact, we would expect to see about 100 basis points of margin expansion that's reflected in our guidance for the year compared to last year normalized for the business exit. And we're pleased with the track that the business is on.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Rob.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Tom, in your prepared comments, you had mentioned Forcepoint. So I was wondering what your perspectives are on the progress that business is making and whether you've had any indications from your partner that they may be looking to sell out.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
First of all, we are pleased with the performance of Forcepoint, I mean double-digit operating margins. Their growth was in line with our expectations. In fact, if you remove the web's filtering part of the business, which we're exiting, they achieved about 9% year-over-year growth. So, they're meeting our expectations. Because of some of the growth of that business, we are making some investments this year in terms of their infrastructure to be able to support an additional growth in the out-years. So bottom-line is that we're overall very happy with Forcepoint. We are seeing significant demand signal that's coming in that we've been preparing for, for the last two years. And that's in the area of insider threat, especially from the large and very large enterprises. And so we're very excited about that market, because we think we are the number one provider of solutions in the area of insider threat and data loss prevention. So, that's extremely good news for Forcepoint moving forward. Based on your other question relative to our partners, to-date our partners have not indicated any position relative to doing a put, for example, to exit the joint venture.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. And I think, Rob, just to kind of maybe complete and pile on a little bit what Tom said. From a margin perspective, the quarter was a little ahead of our expectations. It was at the high-end of our guidance for the year. One thing I would say the Q2 margin we do expect it to be down slightly from Q1, probably in the mid-single-digits, driven by a combination of some seasonality as well as, as I referred to in my opening comments, the timing of the investment that we see at the business there. So, I think that kind of sums up Forcepoint.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Tom, this is very helpful to beginning and talking about all of your sea and subsea business. But is there any way you can just put it all together and just tell us, I mean, what is the size of your business for the U.S. Navy and then if you can help us think about the timing as there has been a lot of discussion about more ships? And if we were to increase the rate of say destroyers, when does that actually affect you and when do you start to see that pick up?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, so real quick. I think a majority of our naval business – and I am going to just talk about the surface and undersea. Obviously, in the air part of the Navy, we have quite a bit of business relative to our solutions that we have on F-18s and other aircraft like the E-2D. But on the surface and undersea, on the surface side, it's the – our bigger contribution there is in the radars, in terms of AMDR, Air and Missile Defense, radar and the EASR. That's essentially going to be the two major radars for the entire surface fleet. Same on the missiles, the standard missile family, the SM-2s, SM-3s, SM-6s, the Tomahawks, the Rolling Airframe Missiles, the Enhanced Seasparrow Missiles, essentially all the protection for the ships and their entire capability. As you mentioned, there is a position on the Trump administration to increase the capability of the Navy. And there is the talks about increasing the number of ships from 275 to 355 ships. Obviously, if that happens, these systems I talked about are on those ships. We would see an uptick relative to requirements in demand signals for both the radars and the missiles if that went forward (31:48). In terms of total dollars...
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Last year, Sam, our Navy business in total was about 18% of our total revenue.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please proceed.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning, Tom and Toby.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Peter J. Arment - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hey, Toby, maybe this is just kind of a housekeeping one. But there was – in the backlog there was about a $1 billion adjustment in Missile Systems. Could you provide a little more color on what that was?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So, I mean, it just effectively mapped, right, the relationship of their bookings in the quarter to the sales that they generated, nothing out of line there. At a total company level, as we indicated, the bookings in the quarter exceeded our expectations. But if you peel that back, Missiles' bookings were roughly that order of magnitude below their sales in the quarter. But for the total year, we expect them to be on track and have a slight increase on a year-over-year basis with their backlog. And just as a remainder, they've had some strong bookings over the last couple of years. Their book-to-bill, I think, last year was about 1.13, so nothing out of the norm there. Just the burn-off of revenue and lower than what they had been experienced – level of bookings, but nothing to be concerned about.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Myles Walton with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Myles.
Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
In the release, in SAS, I think one of the biggest areas – product lines where you saw pickup in bookings was in AESA radars for Air Force, and I imagine that's F-15 but you can correct me if I'm wrong. And I was hoping though in terms of the real question is give us some clarity on where the Air Force is with their F-16 AESA strategy, kind of where you sit, where the competition between yourselves and Northrop are, and kind of timeline. And if you can give us some color there, that'd be great. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So, right now – and you're absolutely correct. That was an uptick in SAS relative to the F-15s and putting the AESA radars on the F-15. So right now, that's what we're pursuing moving forward is both the F-15s and the F-18s in terms of the AESA radars both domestically and internationally. Some of the uptick on the F-15 is due to the proposed buy in Qatar for the F-15s. And so we are obviously supporting that. One of the things that I'd also like to bring up in terms of Qatar and the F-15 buy is this is the first buy for Qatar for, I would call it, a U.S. fighter aircraft. And so along with that comes the whole support for all of the missiles that the F-15 uses. So not only do we get an uptick on the radars, but we also get a significant uptick in establishing a weapons program for Qatar to support the F-15 system.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Tom, some – good morning. Tom, some of your peers this quarter have talked kind of broadly about the tradeoff going forward between growth and profitability and some of the competitions that they see out ahead maybe inhibiting margin expansion going forward, but would obviously be important to win. I wonder how you talk about – if you could talk about how you see that tradeoff for Raytheon going forward from here.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me talk about that, because it's something that we discuss quite a bit in the company. And just like with our capital deployment, we take a balanced approach in terms of growth and profitability. The bottom line is we need both. We need both top-line growth and margin expansion. And so, we have the whole company focused on both of those elements. On the growth side, I think you've seen what we've done here over the last several years, especially relative to our international expansion. It turns out that international also is our – a lot of our higher margin business is international. So those two things, the growth in international business and the growth in margins goes hand-in-hand with that. We also look domestically. We look to participate in growth in these new programs, especially ones that are, I would call it, new franchises, programs that have long legs that we can infuse technology in over the years to keep that franchise moving, but also has legs into the international market. And so for programs that have both a long lifecycle and also international, we do support ensuring that we make the right investments to go in those programs moving forward.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much. Tom, possibly to follow up on the last question, one of the hotspots in the world is also air defense systems, as we've seen with Patriot in Australia and in other markets, and Qatar to some degree. Could you talk a little bit of how you manage risk and how you see other opportunities, especially with respect to there's more (37:41) in Australia and also upgrading of Patriot?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me talk about that. We are, in terms of demand signals, we're getting demand signals from three different areas on our Integrated Air and Missile Defense Solutions. First is Europe and you've heard about the demand from Poland. There is two other countries in Europe that are seriously considering a Patriot buy that we are working. Once we move into the MENA region, obviously, we're completing work with the Qatar on the Patriot, but also the early warning radar to Integrated Air and Missile Defense type systems. But also, in Qatar, we're also doing something called an ADOC, Air Defense Operating Center (sic) [Air and Missile Defense Operations Center] (38:21), which ties together all of the Integrated Air and Missile Defense capabilities of that nation. And it's also a new product line for us that we will be taking into the rest of the MENA region and also back into Europe. And as I – and the next region I'm going to talk about is the Asia-Pacific region. Now, obviously with the North Korean threat there's been a significant uptick in demand signal from multiple countries, obviously, South Korea, Japan and then to a certain degree Taiwan, Taiwan for a little bit of a different reason with another country. But, in any case, it's all about Integrated Air and Missile Defense. It's all about protecting the sovereignty of these nations and keeping their citizens safe. And the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Solutions that we have do that.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Finbar Sheehy with Bernstein Research. Please proceed.
Finbar Thomas Sheehy - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Finbar Thomas Sheehy - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Maybe we could talk about capital deployment just for a moment. You've said you're going to be buying back – retiring debt. You've talked about plans to buy back stock and you are raising the dividend. Can you talk to us about how you think about the tradeoff between in particular retiring debt versus returning cash to shareholders, especially given that your top-line is growing, which presumably would allow you to carry the debt?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So, let me hit that a couple ways. I think given everything that you just laid out, what I think is important we're going forward with the early retirement of debt under our balanced capital deployment. And that still assumes, which has been our stated objective now for a couple of years of returning about 80% of free cash flow to shareholders. And I think in my opening comments I reaffirmed that. We did buy back the $400 million of stock in the first quarter. We're on track to reduce the shares outstanding by about 2% at the midpoint of our range. And as Tom mentioned in his comments, for the 13th year in a row, we raised our dividend this year by 8.9%. As it relates to the retirement of debt, the debt that we're retiring is out there at about 6.5%. We're going to finance that, if you will, with a combination of cash on hand and commercial paper and rates on CP around 1%. And we're doing this because this approach allows us to do a couple things, lower interest expense, clearly maintain our financial flexibility, especially ahead of potential tax reform and what that could mean for us. I think, overall, more importantly, it doesn't change our philosophy around our balanced capital deployment, including the 80% of free cash going back to shareholders. And it also does not reflect the change in the view of how we view our balance sheet, which, as I mentioned earlier, remains very strong and gives us flexibility.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Yeah. Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Pete.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Hey, Tom. On Patriot, I was just wondering on the Poland one, the schedule and the sizing. When you say up to $5 billion to Raytheon, how many barriers does that include and is there kind of optionality built into that contract? And you mentioned the other two European opportunities, I'm pretty sure Romania is one of them. I was wondering if could size those other two opportunities as well.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me talk about the Poland Patriot first. So, right now, it's going on as Poland has submitted an LOR for something called LOA. It's essentially to get approval for to buy the Patriot system. That is going through a negotiation process with the U.S. government. But in case of the total impact to Raytheon, it's north of $4 billion. And then it also adds another member to the Patriot family. So it takes us to 14 countries that have Patriot, which is – actually is good for us in terms of expanding the Patriot market. The other element is you mentioned other countries. I'm not going to name any other countries, but there is two other countries that are working through a process to acquire a Patriot also. And we are obviously working with the U.S. government to ensure that we can expedite those as fast as possible.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes. Just a comment I see it put in funded backlog. I assume that will be in the Q, Toby?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I can give you that, George. Funded backlog at the end of Q1 was $24.6 billion. That's about 68% of our total backlog. And that's in the range that we typically see it out. It typically runs 60% to 70% of total. The reason we didn't put it in, as I mentioned earlier, we did adopt a new revenue recognition standard in Q1. And we've adjusted our reporting, including around backlog, to align with the new standard. But we're still tracking it and we'll provide it, if folks are interested.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Matt McConnell with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Matt.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Could you help me understand what drove the working capital build in the quarter? And one of your defense peers also had a little bit larger of a build here in 1Q. So is that something structurally you're seeing or what's the timing of working that down over the remainder of the year?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Yeah. Let me kind of hit that from two or three different angles here to make sure I give it the right context. So, obviously with the guidance we'd given in January of zero to $100 million, we were expecting our overall operating cash flow to be relatively low – lower than last year. And that was all driven by the cadence around the working capital. For one thing, recall, we really exceeded our cash flow expectations for 2016 by about $300 million, which otherwise, from a timing point of view, all tied to collections, would have been beneficial to Q1. And we'll always take the cash earlier, right? So we saw what was lining up here for the quarter. It really is all due to the timing of collections that are tied to the timing of pre-determined or negotiated contract milestones with each of our particular contracts. And also, we're continuing to grow and we're ramping up to support some of that growth. If you want to think of it from a total year point of view, I'd expect that to continue to build over the next couple quarters into Q2 and Q3 and then we would come back down in the fourth quarter. And, again, to try to help you size that a little bit, we will come back down, it will below the levels we're at for – somewhere between the levels we're at at Q1 and where we were at the end of 2016. And, again, really tied primarily to the timing of payments related to executing contract milestones. From a – translate that to cash flow, I'll just throw in there, for Q2, we expect cash flow – strong cash flow, operating cash flow above $700 million. And as we said earlier, we feel confident in the total year outlook of the $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Please proceed.
Kristine Tan Liwag - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Good morning. This is Kristine Liwag calling in for Ron.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
We can't hear you. Can you speak up a little bit, please?
Kristine Tan Liwag - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, guys. It's Kristine Liwag calling in for Ron. There was a slight uptick in receivables sequentially. Has there been any changes in payment terms from international customers, particularly in the Middle East?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
No. We've seen pretty consistent terms here for the last year or two and from a terms' point of view not seen anything different.
Kristine Tan Liwag - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And also, maybe a different question, there has been discussion of a possible safe zone or a no fly zone in Syria. If we move towards this direction, can you discuss opportunities you would expect to see?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I think the tempo in Syria is pretty up right now. And we are seeing significant demand signaled to provide solutions and keep up with the replenishment requirements. So I think that's about it.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Rob Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse:
Good morning. I wanted to ask two quick things. Toby, first of all, if you could just give us the cadence for the free cash flow for the rest of the year. And then I had a question on GBSD, Tom. And with this major program and the primes getting set up for that, how are your teamed and what kind of capabilities will you offer?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Rob, obviously, I'll take the first one. As I just said, we're confident in our outlook for the cash flow for the year. We do expect to see about $700 million in Q2 with the rest of the year playing out or following a cadence that is roughly in line with prior years but with the majority of the cash flow weighted in the second half and even then more into Q4 driven by the program milestones and deliveries that I just referred to.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
On your second question, the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, or as you said, the GBSD program, it will replace the Minuteman III missiles and the associated command and control systems and that goes all the way out to about 2028. And the program is structured right now so that there will be a risk reduction contract, two primes, and that's going to be expected sometime here in 2017, then followed by a final down select to a single prime in 2020. Right now, our strategy is we are engaging with multiple teams and seeing where our best solution is relative to being able to make one of these primes a winner. And so we're working through that process right now (49:30) to find who will be the person, or the company we'll be working with.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi. Please proceed.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jason.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
I just wanted to chat briefly about – have you chat briefly about the international contracting environment, kind of what you've experienced over the last couple of years, what you're experiencing today and kind of what you expect going forward, particularly focused on the contract vehicles or the contract types. And maybe give us a sense of the mix with regard to firm fixed price contracts, particularly on the development side. As you're probably well aware, we've had some of your competitors that have been struggling of late with some fixed price development contracts. So, I think it would be helpful for us to all get a sense of where you sit today with regard to international, and from fixed price development contracts, what percentage of your backlog, which is at about 40% international, is from fixed price development and how you guys are working your way through that. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me take that on, because some of your question was philosophy and some of your questions, I think, were percentages. So, first of all, we've been operating in the countries we're operating today in some cases for over 51 years and our overall type of contracts that we have break down into two parts. First of all, one is, some of them are foreign military sales and the other ones are direct commercial sales. And the foreign military sales – we treat that just like we treat all our domestic type contracts, because the terms and conditions essentially are the same as we deal with any domestic program. So, that takes us to the direct commercial sales. So on the direct commercial sales, we have a mix of essentially all the contracts. The majority of them are firm fixed price and majority of them are production type deliveries. So we are going back to the factory, the same factory line that we build our domestic products on and we're essentially just delivering product out of those production lines to these international customers. Some cases customers do have a request for some modification, something that's unique. For example, on the Patriot system, sometimes they want a different truck by a different manufacturer. And in that case there, we do the work that is – puts the gear on the different trucks. It's a usually fairly low risk. We've done it multiple times. And so, we have the playbook and we do very well on those programs. There are some other programs out there that we have which are, I would call, more on the development side. When we approach those, we do it from a risk position. We ensure we understand the risks. We try to quantify them and we work to essentially minimize any downside on those contracts. And they are – we monitor them on a very frequent basis.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Noah.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey. Just wanted to go back to this working capital topic, because I thought you guys have been talking about a few hundred million dollar improvement in working capital pretty recently for the year. And it sounds like you're now saying actually maybe a few hundred million dollar use. So, it seems like a pretty big reversal. Do I have that correct? And is it a commentary on being able to find improvements or is it a commentary on your growth profile changing since you last saw that (53:37)?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So again the profile – as I just described a little bit a while ago, not anything really new than what we were counting on. By year-end, as I said, the absolute balances from where they are here in Q1, they will be lower, okay. But part of it is – a little bit of it is the growth aspect of it and the growth profile. And we're going to continue to work to drive down working capital. There is always kind of the things that fall December versus January. So there are some opportunities that we're working on that we're looking at that could potentially get accelerated into 2017 and provide a better outlook, similar to what happened at the end of 2016.
Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
But, Toby, do I have it correct that you were previously saying working capital would be $100 million plus source of cash?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I think when you go – if you go back to the outlook for January – and I know we gave a range right for just using cash as a surrogate for the working capital to $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion. What we were saying is that when you normalize for the discretionary contribution that we made last year, free cash last year would have been – I'm sorry, operating cash last year would have been $3.4 billion. The decrease this year was driven by the net pension effect of higher required contributions. And we said that we thought working capital could be flattish to maybe nominally favorable. And we still could end up in that range there, but because of the growth that is maybe a little bit more pressure. But you're thinking of it relatively correctly.
Operator:
And your next question – it comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yeah. Tom, I just wanted to look at Forcepoint a little bit. I mean the last quarter really organic growth that we had was the third quarter. The fourth quarter was week. This quarter is weak. And obviously that reflect your comment that you'd start investing in the fourth quarter. So my question is what technology – or what happened to slow the organic growth? You must have lost to a competitor and now you're figuring out how to fix it with more investment. If you could just provide a little more color on that. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
No. I'll hit first and then Toby can come in with some more detail. So, first of all, the year-over-year growth was about 4%. But if you take away the web filtering which we are exiting, the year-over-year growth is 9%. And what we're doing now is we're trying to drive that growth into double-digit margins. One of the areas in terms of that was to support the infrastructure. So there is an investment this year on that infrastructure and also in some enhancements to a couple of products. The one product that we're getting significant demand signal from is our insider threat data loss prevention software capability. And so – and it's really relative to a draw from the VLEs and LEs. And that's kind of the overall picture how I look at Forcepoint. I believe they have significant upside potential. We're driving that potential and we're making the right investments this year to go get there.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. Great. All right. That's all we have time for today. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speak with you again on our second quarter conference call in July. Shelley?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc. Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC Peter J. Arment - Baird Equity Research Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC Ronald Jay Epstein - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Q4 2016 Earnings Conference Call, hosted by Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. . I'd like to advise all parties, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. And now I'd like to hand over to Todd.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Steve. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning and the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives, and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning everyone. We had another great year in 2016, as we continue to execute our growth strategy and delivered solid program performance. Let me start by touching on some of our financial highlights. Our bookings were up over 10% year over year and reached a new company record of $27.8 billion. Our total backlog was up 6%, a key metric to consider as you think about our future growth. Sales increased 3.5% for the year driven by both domestic and international. I would also add that this is the company's best sales growth rate since 2009. EPS exceeded our expectations for the quarter and the year, and cash flow was much better than we had expected. This allowed us to make a significant discretionary pension contribution in the fourth quarter, while retaining continued flexibility for our balanced capital deployment strategy. Toby will review additional details about the quarter and 2017 guidance in a few minutes. In 2016, demand from our global customers was strong throughout the year. The main drivers continue to be the three key areas that we've mentioned on prior calls
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the fourth quarter and full-year results, then I'll discuss our outlook for 2017. After that, we'll open up the call for questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning which are posted on our website. Okay. Would everyone please moved to page three. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in both the fourth quarter and the full year, with bookings, EPS, and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the fourth quarter at $7.6 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.21. And for the year, we had record bookings of $27.8 billion, resulting in a 6% growth to our year-end 2016 backlog. This sets the stage for continued growth in 2017, which I'll discuss in more detail in just a few minutes. Sales were $6.2 billion in the quarter, down slightly from last year. As we pointed out on our third quarter conference call, the fourth quarter of 2016 had four fewer workdays than the comparable period in 2015 which had an impact to sales of approximately $100 million per day. For the year, sales were up 3.5%, ending at $24.1 billion. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.84 for the quarter and $7.44 for the full year, which I will give a little more color on in a few minutes. We also generated strong operating cash flow of $1.1 billion for the quarter and $2.9 billion for the year, which included a $500 million pre-tax discretionary pension contribution that was not in our prior guidance. Additionally, during the quarter the company repurchased 700,000 shares of common stock for $100 million, bringing the full-year 2016 repurchases to 6.9 million shares for about $900 million. We reduced our share count in 2016 by 3%. Would also like to point out that in addition to the $900 million I just mentioned, the company also repurchased an additional $96 million of shares surrendered by employees to satisfy tax withholding obligation in connection with stock awards. The company ended the year with a solid balance sheet and net debt of approximately $1.9 billion. Turning now to page four, let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full-year results. As I mentioned earlier, we had strong bookings of $7.6 billion in the quarter and a record $27.8 billion for the full year, resulting in a year-end backlog of $36.9 billion. This is an increase of $2.2 billion over year-end 2015 and provides us with a solid foundation for 2017. It's worth noting that both Missile Systems and SAS had outstanding bookings performance for the full-year 2016. For the quarter, international orders represented 38% of our total company bookings and for the full year were 29% of total bookings. And as Tom mentioned earlier, at the end of 2016, approximately 41% of our total backlog was international. Turning now to page five, we had fourth quarter sales of $6.2 billion, lower than our prior expectations, primarily due to the timing on some large international awards at IDS. It's worth noting that international sales continue to be strong, representing 31% of our total sales for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2016. So looking at the businesses, IDS had net sales of $1.4 billion in the quarter, down from the same period last year, primarily due to lower net sales on an international communications program and on the Air Warfare Destroyer program. And again, it's important to point out that the timing of some international awards that we had expected in the back end of 2016 unfavorably impacted IDS sales in the quarter. Net sales at both IIS and Missile Systems in the fourth quarter were relatively flat compared with the same period last year. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion in Q4. The increase was primarily driven by higher net sales on an electronic warfare systems contract and classified programs. And for Forcepoint, the increase was primarily due to the acquisition of Stonesoft, which was completed in the first quarter of 2016. For the full year, the company's sales were $24.1 billion, up approximately 3.5% over full-year 2015. Both our international and domestic businesses contributed to this sales growth. Moving ahead to page six, we delivered solid operational performance in the quarter and for the full year. Looking at business margins in the quarter, IDS had solid margins of 15.6% in the quarter but had a tough comparison. As a reminder, IDS had $53 million of operating income from a favorable contract modification to restructure the Air Warfare Destroyer program in the fourth quarter of 2015. IDS, IIS, Missile Systems, and SAS margins all met or exceeded the guidance that we provided back in October. Turning to page seven. We had solid operating margin performance for the year. Total company segment margins were 12.7%, which was consistent with our expectations. On page eight, you'll see both the fourth quarter and full year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2016 our EPS was $1.84 and for the full year was $7.44. EPS for the quarter was strong and above the guidance we provided you in October. It's worth noting that as a result of the $500 million pre-tax discretionary pension plan contribution that we made in the fourth quarter of 2016, there was an unfavorable tax related impact of $0.04 because the contribution lowered the benefit of our domestic manufacturing tax deduction. This lowered EPS and was not included in our prior guidance. Now turning to page nine. Before moving on to our 2017 guidance, it's important to note as we discussed on our prior earnings conference call, that effective January 1, 2017, we adopted the new revenue recognition standard. And although the impact of adopting the new standard on our 2015 and 2016 net sales and operating income was not material, to assist you with your modelling and for comparison purposes, we provided the recast data in the attachments at the end of the earnings release. And just to be clear, as I discuss our 2017 guidance going forward, I will be comparing to the recast 2016 amounts, which reflect the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard. Now moving to our 2017 guidance. We see sales in the range of between $24.8 billion and $25.3 billion, up 3% to 5% from 2016. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international businesses. Our 2017 outlook for the deferred revenue adjustment is $33 million and for the amortization of acquired intangibles is $127 million. As for pension, we see the 2017 FAS/CAS adjustment at a positive $428 million, which I'll discuss in just a minute. We expect net interest expense to be between $216 million and $221 million. We see our average diluted shares outstanding to be between 291 million and 293 million on a full-year basis, a reduction of approximately 2%, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program. We expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 31.5%, which I'll cover in a little more detail in just a moment. In 2017, we see our EPS to be in the range of $7.20 to $7.35, which is up when you compare to 2016, excluding the TRS transaction, which added $0.53 to 2016 results. Our operating cash flow from continuing operations for 2017 is expected to be between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion compared to $2.9 billion in 2016. As we sit here today, we don't anticipate making a discretionary contribution to our pension plans in 2017. As we previously mentioned, we did make a $500 million discretionary contribution in 2016. When you look at our cash flow before this contribution, our overall operating cash flow is about $400 million better than our prior expectations for 2016 and 2017 combined. Before moving on to page 10, I would like to mention that we expect our 2017 bookings to be between $25 billion and $26 million, driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. And we expect stronger bookings in the second half of the year, similar to prior years. On page 10, I want to spend a minute talking about our 2017 effective tax rate. As I mentioned a few minutes ago, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 31.5% in 2017. Our tax rate in 2017 is higher than 2016 primarily due to the tax-free gain on the TRS transaction that we completed in 2016, worth about 180 basis points, and a reduction in the expected excess tax deduction from stock-based compensation, which is worth about 80 basis points. So if you move to page 11, here we have provided our initial 2017 guidance by business. At the midpoint of the sales range, we expect to see growth in our IDS, Missile Systems, SAS, and Forcepoint businesses in 2017. We expect IIS sales to decline slightly in 2017 compared with 2016. As we've discussed before, this is driven by the planned ramp down on the Warfighter FOCUS program. Excluding Warfighter FOCUS, we expect IIS to grow in the low single digit range, driven by domestic cyber security and special mission programs. With respect to segment margins, consistent with our prior comments, we expect 2017 margins to continue to be solid, in the 12.4% to 12.6% range. This is up when you compare to 2016 excluding the TRS transaction, which was worth about 70 basis points. At IDS we see margins in the 15.5% to 15.7% range, which is also up from 2016 excluding the impact of the TRS transaction. This change from 2016 is driven by favorable program mix as we ramp up on some recently awarded programs and increase productivity, driven by efficiencies from our investments in factory automation and equipment upgrades. We expect IIS margins of 7.4% to 7.6%. This is in line year over year. We see missiles margins in the 13.1% to 13.3% range, up slightly compared with 2016. SAS margins are also expected to be in the 13.1% to 13.3% range, consistent with 2016. And at Forcepoint, we expect margins to be in the 10% to 11% range. This is a decrease from 2016 due to an expected $25 million internal investment to support Forcepoint's long-term growth. If you now move to page 12, we've provided you with our outlook for the first quarter of 2017. We expect the cadence for the balance of 2017 to play out similar to 2016 with sales and operating cash flow ramping up in the second half of the year. We expect EPS to follow a similar cadence when you exclude the impact from the tax free gain from the second quarter 2016 TRS transaction. And on page 13, as we have done in the past, we've provided a summary of the financial impact from pensions in 2016 as well as the projected impact for 2017 through 2019, holding all assumptions constant. As I mentioned earlier, we see the 2017 FAS/CAS adjustment at a positive $428 million, which reflects our investment returns in 2016 of 6% on our U.S. pension assets, the December 31 discount rate of 4.4% and the long-term return on asset assumption of 7.5%. As you know, after our third quarter earnings call, market conditions led to a sharp increase to the discount rate, which ended down just 10 basis points from year-end 2015. Looking beyond 2017, keep in mind that each 25 basis points change in the discount rate at December 31, 2017, drives a $70 million to $80 million change in FAS/CAS for 2018. And as we discussed on the call in October, we reduced our long-term return on asset assumption from 8% to 7.5%, driven by recent capital market expectations. And finally on page 14, we have provided an updated three-year outlook of the acquisition accounting adjustments to help you with your long-term modeling. Please note that you will see a significant decline in the deferred revenue adjustment over the period, as expected. Before concluding, as we discussed on past earning calls, with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet at our current credit rating going forward. We remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth plans as well as returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, making small targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs, and from time to time making discretionary contributions to our pension plans. Let me conclude by saying that in 2016 Raytheon again delivered strong operating performance with bookings, earnings and operating cash flow all ahead of expectations. Sales grew 3.5% and our backlog was up significantly. We have a solid balance sheet, which gives us flexibility and options to continue to drive shareholder value, and we are well positioned to grow in 2017 and beyond, both in our international and domestic business. So with that, we'll open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And your first question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, George.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Toby, I want to pursue a little bit the same thing I had last quarter. If I look at your bookings, they're $3.77 billion above sales. Yet if I look at total backlog, it's only up $2.2 billion. So, why shouldn't I conclude that either some of these bookings haven't made it into backlog or some have been cancelled, which would explain the continued miss in the IDS revenues?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So first I can tell you anything that we reported as a booking has made it into our backlog, so that's part one. Regarding the rest of the question, as I mentioned in my comments, we're pleased with the backlog growth, up 6% over 2015. We saw a 3% increase at the end of 2015 as well. What is happening or what you're seeing, and we've talked about this before, is the effect of backlog adjustments. We did see $300 million of backlog adjustments in this quarter. The majority of these or most of these are the results of cost underruns on domestic cost type programs. From time to time we also see some smaller impacts related to scope changes and currency fluctuations. And if you look at it from a total year point of view, as you did, that difference or that gap that you're trying to bridge is all related to the backlog adjustments. I can also tell you none of it relates to cancellations including any international orders. So we don't have a concern there. The sales miss, just to kind of play towards the rest of your question, the sales miss at IDS had nothing to do with anything that was canceled. It's purely timing. Nothing went away. Some of the larger orders, like the Qatar EWR that was mentioned earlier, that just moved from the fourth quarter into here over the award expected over the next couple months, and it's nothing more than that.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes, but still, Toby, if I look at IDS revenue guidance for this year, it's actually lower than the revenue guidance you had for IDS in 2016. So it's not like you are making up on these deferrals. There's something that's missing there.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
So you got to keep in mind, right, when a program moves to the right, the whole program moves, right. And so just use the EWR as an example, right, we'd expected that award here in at the end of, back at the end of 2016. Would have had a few months worth of revenue recorded in 2016. And then in 2017 you would have been into make it up months three through 15 on the program. Now we're only going to be recording months one through 10, let's say, or one through nine. So it's just that everything is shifting to the right. Regarding IDS, we are showing, if you look at the range of the revenue guidance for 2017, somewhere between a 3% to 7% growth or up in the mid to single digits. It is driven by international as we continue to ramp up on some of the larger awards, the international radar awards and Patriot programs, as well as Qatar EWR. And we do have some programs that, as planned, would be ramping down, but we feel good about the mid single digit growth for IDS. And again, nothing has gone away or been lost. It's just a matter of timing.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jason Gursky from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah, good morning everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jason.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Tom, I was wondering if you could just spend a few minutes talking a little bit about Forcepoint and the dynamics going on there. Looks like sales growth going into 2017 is maybe decelerating a little bit, maybe a bit behind your long-term growth rate for the business. And you just mentioned a $25 million investment that you want to make in the business for long-term growth. So, just some updated thoughts on Forcepoint, both for the near term and the long-term story there. Thanks, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, let me just start off. I'll start it off and I'll hand it off to Toby for some additional color. Forcepoint in our mind is meeting our expectations. In fact, I was just at their sales kickoff. We have restructured that business after the acquisitions. We have a solid strategy in place for the business. We have brought in a new CEO last year, Matt Moynahan, along with a strong CFO for that business. And so I believe we're off to a great start in 2017. One of the key elements that we were working on in 2016 was the transfer from mostly I would call it a small to medium enterprise type customer base, to a large enterprise, a very large enterprise customer base. And we had some significant uptick in being able to achieve bookings and sales with large enterprises and very large enterprises last year. And that looks like that's continuing into 2017. So it's following our strategy there to essentially take Forcepoint to the next level relative to its market area. The other element is we've also improved several of its products and solution sets in the marketplace. As you probably know, cyber threat is not getting less. It's getting more. And we've developed some new products, especially relative to behavioral analytics, that we believe will be very unique to the marketplace, but also something that can help sustain businesses in terms of their attacks against the whole cyber threat area. I'll -- then I'll turn it over to Toby. We are making investment next year. One of the things, the struggles that we had is the business has gone from – to about $250 million a year revenue, and we ended this 2016 at about close to $600 million in revenue. So we're doing some infrastructure upgrades to be able to support that size of a business.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, so, Jason, and just on the, translate a little bit what Tom said from the results for the year end and looking ahead. So, the sales for the fourth quarter and there for the year, they were a little bit below our expectations. The good news is that the business hit our expectations from a bookings point of view, and they just had some mix issues, right, where it flowed through and resulted in lower profit within the quarter based upon fewer perpetual contracts and more subscription contracts, okay. So it was just a mix issue where the year ended up. Looking forward to 2017, low double digit top-line growth, 10% to 11% margin. The $25 million investment that Tom talked about is about 300, 350 basis points impact on margin. So normalized for that, maybe closer to 14%. That said, looking forward on a longer-term basis, we continue to expect double digit growth going forward. We believe the investment in the business in 2017 sets us up well for continued double digit growth and margins. So, I think we're still on track. Recall we made this investment from the longer-term, right, about looking to the future and a growth perspective. And as Tom mentioned, in a couple years, this is becoming a $600 million plus cyber security business, and we're pleased with the performance and the outlook for the business.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes. Thank you very much. So, to get back to George's question, so your booking guidance of $25 billion to $26 billion, if I recall in the third quarter, I think you said you expected bookings in 2017 to at least equal sales, if I'm not mistaken. And now you've had a slip of $1 billion of Qatar in, and it looks like the book-to-bill is slightly positive. And that's before any of these backlog adjustments. So A, is there any slippage of some business you expected in 2017 that's moved out to the right, and B, should we look for the backlog adjustment to be a negative, therefore suggesting that backlog may be relatively stagnant over the year?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Cai, so keep in mind, notwithstanding the early warning radar that moved into 2017, we did come in nearly $1 billion higher than the high end of our booking outlook for 2016, okay. And that resulted in the strong 1.16 book-to-bill. We said think of 2017 in roughly 1 to 1.05 book-to-bill. When you look at the two years together, obviously the simple average there, about 1.08. Very strong. Will we have some backlog adjustments in 2017? I'm sure we will. We don't anticipate they'd be at the level that they were here that we saw in 2016. And net-net we'd expect to see backlog growth in 2017.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Morning. I wonder if you guys could talk a little bit and quantify the increase in the CapEx that you are expecting for 2017, and then talk about the trajectory in the out years.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, so we ended 2016 around $625 million in CapEx and software spending. As we talked about, it is going to go up in 2017. I think the way to think of it is in a range of maybe $650 million to $695 million for both capital and software combined. We're increasing our spending as the business grows with investments in our infrastructure and high technology production facilities, as Tom mentioned in his opening remarks. We're also continuing to invest in demonstration capabilities and factory automation, again to position us for both growth and productivity improvements. We are seeing some of the results of that, those improvements from a productivity point of view in our factory automation. And we strongly believe we're making investments in the right places that will yield future benefit. Looking beyond 2017, to the other part of your question, I would expect the expenditure level to be in line with where we are in 2017.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, Good morning gentlemen.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning Carter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Morning.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
And go Falcons, huh? Maybe not.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hey, hey, hey.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Hey.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I guess we'll see. I had a couple questions. Toby, first on the upside in the cash and where that came from. You highlighted a couple hundred million over the two-year period. I don't know if you could tell us what the elements were there that drove that. And then the second one, there's clearly been some discussion around border adjustment for tax and export sales. And I don't know if you had a view on how that would impact international defense revenues, FMS versus DCS. Any views you have there or color you could share with us would be helpful? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, so on the cash, what I said is if you take a look at 2016 and 2017 combined, prior to the discretionary, we're about $400 million better than what we had guided for 2016. And then the indications that we gave for 2017 back on the October call, that $400 million is all driven, primarily driven, by the timing of receipts and collections. Relative to 2016, a big chunk of it was related to advances that we received earlier than expected. And in 2017, think of it just as typical receipts on programs. So from us this is a real strong point here. As we closed out 2016 and going to 2017, we were able to beat in 2016, and it wasn't at the expense of 2017. We backfilled that $300 million plus added another $100 million, really driven by the performances of the business. So we're really pleased with that and it helps reinforce our focus on cash flow and the strong balance sheet.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
So Carter, I'll jump in on the tax. Obviously we've been following this very closely. Unfortunately right now, there's not been a lot of specifics laid out in terms of how the new administration is going to approach the tax reform. I can tell you that 31% of our business is international and therefore export. So the question is how will that be looked at. Because as part of that, approximately 19% of that is direct commercial sale, which is a pure export, but then about 12% of that is FMS. So we're really trying to understand how the new administration is going to look at what the definition of export is. In terms of any imports, that's less than 5% of our total costs. So in any case, if there is some type of tax effort or reform put out that has an advantage relative to exports, we'll more than likely get a significant tailwind from that.
Operator:
So next question is from the line of Robert Spingarn from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Tom, I wanted to go back to George's question a little bit. The book to bill, I think Toby, you just said 1.16, 1.15. The sales growth is 3% to 5% for this year. We're in an environment where we've got a consumables shortfall overseas. I guess readiness is the theme of the new administration. Is there scope to think of your guidance as somewhat conservative for this year, or do these factors really contribute next year? Could we see an acceleration of growth next year?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah Robert, I think it's a great question. And just make sure that you understand that our guidance, essentially assuming what we know about the fiscal year 2017 budget today, we did not put any windage on this relative to anything that the new administration is going to do relative to readiness in 2017. I think the picture right now is a little cloudy relative to how much of changes will occur in the 2017 budget. So what we've done is we've tried to base our guidance on what we know for sure, and that is essentially that a budget that has been worked in Congress to date. And so, if you think that's conservative, then that's conservative.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
I think, Tom, the other thing I would add just from our, the outlook we gave for the bookings, keep in mind, as we always have, our bookings are factored. Okay, so we try to take that into account when we give the guidance as well. And then regarding going back to George's question and around the backlog adjustments, one thing I will point out, some of those do come back in the form of other new work, maybe not on the same program but other programs as well. So it's not always necessarily a one-for-one decrease to the backlog.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Stallard - Vertical Research Partners, LLC:
Tom, I was wondering if you could give us an update on what you are seeing in Europe. It does seem like some of the defense spending trends there are improving, and how long it might take for some of this to flow through to you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, so I think one of them is we are seeing several NATO countries I would say getting closer to the 2% of their GDP in terms of investments in defense. And so that obviously is healthy for us. We are seeing a significant interest in, I call it, the deterrence element of our three buckets sometimes I talk about. And really that is to be able to have systems that can deter a major threat from encroaching their borders. And so we are seeing that in Poland. We are obviously working through a major Patriot effort there. Another European country is moving forward with a Patriot buy, and so we are obviously following that very closely. There is also a replenishment on weapons for the NATO countries. And so we are actively involved in working with several countries in that area. So it's all the way from missile defense all the way into integrated air and missile defense also and then even down to weapons replenishment. So we're seeing it across all those three product areas.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird. Please go ahead.
Peter J. Arment - Baird Equity Research:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, Tom, Toby.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Morning.
Peter J. Arment - Baird Equity Research:
Hey, Tom, this one's for you. You mentioned that the approval on the SM-6 for international customers. Have you been able to kind of quantify what the available market or the TAM is for that particular product?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I mean, over multiple years, it's in the billions.
Peter J. Arment - Baird Equity Research:
I mean, is there any expectation that you'd start to see some of that fall into this year or is that too soon?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, we could potentially see some bookings, but we're not going to see significant revenue in 2017. That's going to start 2018 and out on the international. The domestic, we just received a major $250 million award just here in the last couple weeks from the United States Navy. So we're seeing obviously, the domestic side is significantly picking up. This is a system that just has come out of development here in the last year. It's already gone into production, and we're seeing demand signals in the international marketplace. The good news is we now have approval to sell into the international marketplace. So bottom line is, it's all upside moving forward on SM-6.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Wanted to talk a little bit about your cash flow and just how to think about the capital. And your guidance of 291 million to 293 million shares is certainly not a very big decrease from where you're ending the year. And so I'm trying to just understand
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah so, consistent with what we've talked about in the past, Sam, when we look at how we deploy our capital, we think of it from a balanced approach, and that hasn't changed. Share buyback is still a key component of that. Relative to your question on the cadence, I think the cadence is going to be, sitting here today, similar to what we saw in 2016. That said, the beauty of our balanced approach, it allows us to flex across the different elements of how we deploy capital, and we'll continue to evaluate that. We do see incremental value in our stock for all the reasons we've talked about in the past, relative to our international position where our technology investments are and how aligned they are for the future with the DoD. I mentioned earlier Forcepoint continues to be a long-term growth and value creation play, and that hasn't changed. So we'll continue to evaluate that. We said it before. We're going to be prudent in our allocation of capital. And if we think accelerating from what we did from a cadence point of view on the buyback in 2016 makes sense in 2017, we won't be afraid to make that change.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Hunter.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. So the initiative to reduce the footprint by about 10% from a few years ago
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, so when we embarked on the footprint reduction initiative several years ago, our focus was becoming more competitive, more efficient, and we have done that, right, along the way. We have reduced on a gross basis just about 8 million square feet. We reduced about 1.4 million gross in 2016. There are still some elements of that that are ongoing. Think of the reduction we have anticipated here in 2017 related to that of around 700,000 to 800,000 square feet. So we're still focused on that. And again, we're finding ways to do things more efficiently, be more cost competitive, and at the same time continue to work and improve our margins. I'll be honest. I don't remember what the exact bogie was for how the impact of that was going to flow through, but we have seen an improvement. Just as a reminder, we get the instant year improvement that we flow through to the bottom line, but then in subsequent years, we update our rates and we price that into our future contracts. But we're definitely on target with that and seeing the benefits we expected.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Howard Rubel from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much. I want to go back to some of the accomplishments you have had in capturing some development programs. Tom, could you update us on the status of AMDR and when you expect that to start being inserted into the fleet? And the same applies to Next Gen Jammer and associated opportunities there as well.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Okay, so I'll start with AMDR. AMDR is in test at the Pacific Test Range out in Hawaii. It's having great results there. Obviously there is a lot of demand signals from the operational Navy side to get that into use as soon as possible. But initially, it goes onto DDG-51s in line and production, and then it goes into back-fit into the older DDG-51s. So we see a transition into, starting a transition into production in the late 2018. There is also, we've already been turned on to long lead for the AMDR and long lead material. And we see that picking up, essentially the production transition in 2018 and beyond. On Next Generation Jammer, Next Generation Jammer has entered into the main EMD phase of that program. So that will also be transitioning into production in the 2020 type range. One other one you didn't mention, Howard, was we did win the Navy EASR program, which is a smaller radar than AMDR but essentially based on the AMDR architecture. So between AMDR and EASR, we have the majority of the radars that go on surface Navy ships. And as you know, one of the keys of the administration's efforts moving forward is to increase the number of ships, which then will drive the number of EASRs and AMDRs that are going to be required. So we have a lot of expectations for those two franchises to take off here in the next three to five years.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Pete Skibitski from Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Yeah, good morning guys. Nice cash flow year.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Pete.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, Pete.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Hey Tom, I wanted to talk about missiles for a minute, because every time I turn around it seems like there's a new competitive missile opportunity out there, whether it's PB (54:32) with their lethality or Third Offset type stuff, or I've seen an Australian announcement for a $1 billion AMRAAM order. And now you're talking about this Tucson expansions, I was just trying to put it all together and ask you, is missiles looking like it's going to be ex-Forcepoint, is it going to be your growthiest segment now going out through the midterm, given all that's going on and the fact that you are expanding Tucson?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well, I think there is -- let me talk about the demand signals and how they're coming in. And I'll talk about them in terms of the three buckets again. One is the counterterrorism, counterinsurgency area there. So there is a heavy demand for precision weapons, munitions in that area to minimize collateral damage but yet be able to strike at the terrorists, in this case here, the ISIS. As you know, the new administration has also made I guess a statement here that they are going to go after ISIS. So we see a significant demand pull in terms of these precision munitions, obviously all coming out of missile company. The second bucket is the deterrence, and that gets into missile defense. And again, with the near pure threats, also with some rogue nations, that's driving significant demand signals there, not only in the United States but also with our international coalition partners. So that's where the other strong demand area is. And then in this third bucket is these future Third Offset strategy type systems, and that we're heavily involved in. We mentioned one brand new system called this HAWC, DARPA hypersonic weapons. So we're getting significant demand signals from each of those buckets and we're meeting those demand signals with the technology investments we made. And also now we are making investments in our factory to be able to expand, to be able to support the demand signals and the quantities that we're seeing come down the pike. And obviously you're seeing this in AMRAAMs, which is our air-to-air missiles. You're seeing that in all the precision air-to-ground weapons, and then also in our missile defense, which I mentioned the SM-6. So bottom line is you are absolutely correct. Missiles will be a leader in the business in terms of revenue and also new bookings here over the next several years.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Steve, we have time for one more question please.
Operator:
That question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ronald Jay Epstein - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes hey, good morning, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Ron.
Ronald Jay Epstein - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
In your prepared remarks, you mentioned you're going to see a 50% -- you saw a 50% increase in your CRAD spending in 2016. How do we think about that for 2017? And then how do we think about CRAD materializing into a procurement program?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, let me take that on. Obviously, CRAD is important to us for several reasons. One obviously is that it develops new technology which makes us more competitive in the marketplace, but also gets us in up front working with customers. Since it is CRAD, since it is contracted, we are not just doing the IRAD on ourselves, building the field of dreams, we are working hand in glove with a customer, making sure that we're meeting their demand signals, we're meeting their needs, their capability needs. So in that case, it's very focused technology development to meet a customer's needs, with the customer involved. So that's why it's really important. And that CRAD technology then rolls to the next part, which will then turn into EMD programs, engineering, manufacturing, development programs, which then will lead into production programs. So that's why the CRAD is so important. It gives us essentially a leg up in terms of new competitions coming online to win those competitions, get into these EMD programs, and then transition them into production, creating new franchises.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter conference call in April. Steve?
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining and have a very good day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co. Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co. Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.
Analysts:
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc. George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Tracy, and I will be your operator for today. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Tracy. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that the company has strong operating performance in the third quarter, and our growth strategy remains on track. Revenue increased by over 4% and our operational execution was solid across the businesses with overall operating margins above our expectations. As a result, our earnings per share was well ahead of our prior guidance for the quarter. Based on the company's performance, we have updated our guidance for the year, Toby will provide more color on this as well as high level outlook for 2017 in a few moments. We continue to see strong demand from our global customers for our advanced technologies. This demand drove a third quarter book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 and our year-to-date book-to-bill ratio currently stands at a healthy 1.14. I would note that our year-to-date classified bookings have already surpassed our record annual level. Given our booking strength and our expectations for a solid fourth quarter, we have raised our bookings outlook range again for the year by another $500 million to a range of $26 billion to $27 billion. As you know, bookings ultimately drive revenue, so this positions us well for continued solid top-line growth in 2017. I'd like to point out that our domestic bookings were particularly strong in the third quarter, driven by classified, training, the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System, Standard Missile-3, Phalanx, and several additional missile programs. Classified bookings were very strong, representing 22% of total company bookings in the quarter. For our overall domestic business, it is worth noting that bookings have exceeded revenue in each quarter this year. One key area of focus for our team is capturing and renewing franchise programs. These are large, long duration programs that last decades and have both domestic and international potential. In the third quarter, we received a key new franchise booking in our Naval radar area for the Enterprise Air Surveillance Radar or EASR. This competitive award is for the initial engineering, manufacturing and development phase of the program that will ultimately equip U.S. Navy ships and carriers with a new radar based on our gallium nitride or GaN technology. You'll recall, we developed GaN as a big bet technology over a decade ago and leveraged it for previous franchise wins on the Air and Missile Defense Radar and Next Generation Jammer, both for the U.S. Navy. Altogether, these programs put us in a strong position to support our U.S. Navy and international customers with advanced capabilities to counter emerging threats. The EASR win represents an opportunity over $1 billion for the company. We see additional opportunities to leverage GaN technology on our ground-based radar franchises as well. The Missile Defense Agency recently awarded us the contract to develop a process to incorporate GaN components into existing and future TPY-2 radars. These are long range radars used to detect and track ballistic missiles. And earlier this year, we began showcasing a new GaN-based AESA radar for a Patriot Integrated Air and Missile Defense System at key industry events such AUSA and the Farnborough International Airshow. Customer feedback and interest from these events is strong, and we are actively pursuing new opportunities for this radar with key customers. I'm pleased with the progress we're making on these multiple franchise pursuits, and with the clear success of our GaN investments, which has positioned us well across both radar and electronic warfare market segments. As we look to potential future bookings, there are a number of large upcoming opportunities for the company, including an early warning radar system for Qatar as well as Patriot, Standard Missile-2 and radar upgrades across Japan and Taiwan, which combined represents a multi-billion dollar opportunity. Further, we continue to make progress on the Patriot opportunity in Poland. You may have seen that Poland signed a letter of request for an integrated air and missile defense system with the U.S. in September based on the Patriot system. We believe Poland will sign a foreign military sales agreement with the U.S. government sometime later this year or early next. On this timeline, we would expect in turn a signed contract with the U.S. government and book an award later in 2017 for initial Patriot capability. I would add that in addition to Poland, we see other emerging Patriot opportunities in the European region. Turning to sales. Our third quarter increased by a solid 4.3%, as a result of the continued execution of our growth strategy. As we've discussed on past earnings calls, the company is aligned with the needs of our global customers and continues to invest in what we expect to be future growth areas. Internationally, sales were up 7% in the quarter and represented 32% of our total sales. Domestic sales increased by 3% and included classified growth of 5%. Forcepoint, our cybersecurity product business, saw sales increase 31% in the third quarter, of which 18% was organic. I'd like to take a minute to update you further on Forcepoint. The business is performing well and on track to meet its 2016 objectives. The integration of all acquisitions is essentially complete. Forcepoint's new CEO, Matt Moynahan, has been on board for five months now and is making very good progress. We have put in place an updated strategic plan that addresses areas of the cybersecurity market where we believe we have an opportunity for leadership. One of these areas is advanced insider threat, where we are providing an integrated system by combing our SureView and data loss prevention capabilities with policy and analytics to capitalize on this rapidly expanding market area. We believe this approach will align well with our strategy to further penetrate in the enterprise and very large enterprise customer markets and support Forcepoint's long-term growth. Turning to capital deployment; we continue to pursue a balanced capital deployment strategy. Our number one priority remains investing in organic growth. Beyond that, we remain focused on prudently returning capital to shareholders via competitive sustainable dividend and share repurchases, market conditions permitting. We continue to use smaller targeted M&A to fill technology or market gaps to augment both our defense business and commercial cybersecurity capabilities. So bottom line, we had a great quarter with strong sales and margins as well as solid bookings, which sets a stage for continued top-line growth. For that, I'd like to thank the entire Raytheon team. Our employees are proud of what they do every day for our customers, company and shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the third quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to page 3. We are pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the third quarter, with bookings, sales and EPS all at or better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the third quarter of $6.9 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.15. Sales were $6 billion in the quarter, up 4%, led by missiles, SAS and Forcepoint. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.79, which I'll give a little more color on in a few minutes. We generated solid operating cash flow of $640 million in the third quarter. Third quarter 2016 operating cash flow was lower than last year's third quarter as expected, primarily due to the timing of collections and payments. And on a year-to-date basis, operating cash flow of $1.7 billion was ahead of last year's year-to-date operating cash flow by approximately $200 million. During the quarter, the company repurchased 1.4 million shares of common stock for $198 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 6.2 million shares for $801 million. I also want to point out that we're raising the EPS guidance that we provided in July, reflecting our strong performance to-date. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to page 4. Let me start by providing some detail on our third quarter results. Company bookings continue to be strong. For the third quarter, bookings were $6.9 billion and on a year-to-date basis were $20.3 billion, an increase of approximately $2.9 billion over the same period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing four quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.16. For the quarter, international was 21% of our total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis, was 26%. We booked several significant awards in the third quarter, including $538 million on Standard Missile-3, $376 million for Phalanx Weapon Systems, $286 million on domestic and foreign training programs in support of Warfighter FOCUS activities, $265 million to provide advanced Patriot Air and Missile Defense capabilities for an international customer, and $255 million on the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System program, an all-weather landing system for land-based and sea-based aircraft for the U.S. Navy. Total backlog at the end of the third quarter was $35.8 billion, an increase of approximately $2.2 billion compared to the end of the third quarter 2015. And funded backlog was $25.7 billion, an increase of approximately $1.3 billion compared to the end of the third quarter 2015. If you now move to page 5, for the third quarter, 2016 sales were in line with the guidance we set in July. Our international sales were approximately 32% of total sales. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had third quarter 2016 net sales of $1.3 billion. As expected, the change in net sales for the quarter was primarily driven by lower net sales on certain radar production programs and on an international communications program. In the third quarter 2016, IIS had net sales of $1.5 billion, up slightly compared with the same quarter last year. Missile Systems had third quarter 2016 net sales of $1.8 billion. The 9% increase from the third quarter 2015 was primarily due to the Paveway and AMRAAM programs. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion. The 10% increase versus last year was driven by higher sales on an international classified program. And for Forcepoint, the 31% increase was primarily driven by higher sales in federal products and services, and the acquisition of Stonesoft, which was completed in the first quarter of 2016. Moving ahead to page 6, overall the company continues to perform well. Our operating margin was 13.4% for the total company and 12.5% on a business segment basis. So looking now at the business margins, all performed at or above our expectations. The increase in margin at IDS in the third quarter compared to the comparable quarter last year reflects improved program performance. Both IIS and Missile's operating margins were in line with last year's third quarter. As expected, SAS margin decreased in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by a change in program mix. And at Forcepoint, the third quarter 2016 operating margin was, as expected, lower than last year's comparable quarter, primarily due to an increase in professional services and hardware sales relative to total sales and an increase in commissions due to higher bookings. Turning now to page 7. Third quarter 2016 EPS was $1.79, better than expected, driven by timing of program improvements from the fourth quarter, as well as from non-operating items. On page 8 as I mentioned earlier, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2016 to reflect our improved operating performance to-date and our expectations for the fourth quarter compared to our prior guidance. We have tightened the range for full year 2016 net sales, increasing the low end by $200 million. We now expect net sales to be between $24.2 billion and $24.5 billion, up 4% to 5% from 2015. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. As we have done in prior years, during the quarter, we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update, the FAS/CAS adjustment for the year increased by $5 million from $428 million to $433 million or a favorable impact of approximately $0.01 per share. We have increased our full year 2016 EPS, raising the low end by $0.15 and the high end by $0.05 from our prior guidance, and now expect it to be in the range of $7.28 to $7.38. The increase is primarily driven by our improved performance to-date as well as slightly higher pension income and lower interest expense. Turning to our share repurchase. Through the end of the third quarter, we repurchased 6.2 million shares of common stock for just over $800 million and now see our diluted share count at approximately 297 million shares for 2016, a 3% year-over-year reduction. As a percent of free cash flow, we expect to return approximately 80% of free cash flow to shareholders this year, depending on market conditions. And as you can see on page 9, we've included guidance by business. We've increased and tightened the full year sales outlook at both missiles and SAS. In addition, we've tightened the full year sales range for IDS and IIS. Looking at margins, we've narrowed the margin guidance range for the company, raising the low end by 10 basis points from our prior guidance and now see operating margin to be in the range of 13.3% to 13.4% for the full year. At the business segment level, we now see the operating margin in a range of 12.7% to 12.8% for the full year. Before moving on to page 10, as Tom mentioned earlier, given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectation for a solid fourth quarter, we are now raising our full year 2016 bookings outlook to $26.5 billion plus or minus $500 million. This $500 million increase to the prior range is driven by strong demand from our global customers and positions us well for 2017. This marks our second consecutive $500 million quarterly increase to our bookings outlook. We expect international to be about a third of total bookings for the year. On page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the fourth quarter for sales, earnings per share and operating cash flow from continuing operations. We still expect fourth quarter sales to be in a range of $6.4 billion to $6.7 billion, consistent with our prior guidance. It's important to note that the fourth quarter of 2016 has four fewer work days than the comparable period last year, which has an impact to sales of approximately $100 million per day. EPS from continuing operations is now expected to be in a range of $1.68 to $1.78, reflecting the timing of performance improvements we achieved earlier than previously expected. Now turning to next year. As we've done in the past, we intend to provide detailed 2017 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call in January. As we sit here today, we currently see strong sales growth for 2017 of 3% to 5% over the midpoint of our 2016 outlook. We expect segment margins to be up for 2017 compared to 2016, excluding the TRS transaction in 2016, which contributes about 70 basis points. We are well positioned going forward, with further margin expansion over time, both on the domestic side, as new development franchise wins transition to production, and on the international side as large production programs move through their life cycle. We expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30% in 2017. In addition, we expect solid operating cash flow in 2017, slightly lower than 2016, as improvement from the businesses as expected is offset by higher cash taxes and required pension contributions. Of course, I want to caveat all this by saying our assumptions are based on the defense budget being approved in Washington before year-end, thereby avoiding an extended CR or a government shutdown. Before moving on, I want to point out, consistent with our public filings, that we plan to early adopt the new revenue recognition standard in the first quarter of 2017. We do not expect the impact of adopting the new standard to be material to our results. So if you could please move to page 11. We have provided a FAS/CAS pension adjustment matrix for 2017, as we've done in prior years. As a reminder, the range of outcomes shown are estimates. Actual results will be based on factors that are not determined until year end, in particular, the final discount rate, the actual asset returns and the long-term return on asset assumption, all of which could impact the estimates on this matrix. As we sit here today, the discount rate is approximately 75 basis points lower than it was at the end of 2015, and would be roughly 3.75%, and our return on assets through October 25 is a little above 5%. In addition, we have been seeing downward pressure on our long-term return on asset assumption, driven by the most recent capital market expectations. Based on this, we currently see a potential reduction from 8% to a range of 7.25% to 7.5%. I would note that for each 25 basis points change in the assumption, down to 7.25%, we'd expect an additional $55 million reduction to the FAS/CAS adjustment for 2017 compared to what you see on the chart. On page 12, we have provided an updated net cash from pension outlook as well as the prior outlook that we provided to you in January, using the same discount rate and return assumptions. It's worth noting that the net cash from pension in 2017 is now expected to be better compared to our prior outlook. And given our CAS prepayment balance of nearly $7 billion, we continue to expect CAS recovery to exceed contributions well into the next decade. Said another way, we expect pension to be a net positive contributor to cash flow over the next 10 plus years under current assumptions. Please note that all of these assumptions exclude us making any potential discretionary pension contributions. And just to be clear, the final discount rate, the actual asset returns and the long-term return on asset assumptions won't be known until we close out 2016. We'll provide a more detailed pension outlook on our January year-end call. In summary, we saw a solid performance in the third quarter. Bookings were strong. Our sales and EPS were at or above our expectations. And our strong cash flow and balance sheet will allow us to continue to drive value for our customers and our shareholders. We are well positioned for continued growth in 2017. With that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Carter Copeland with Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, gentlemen.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Carter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Tom, I was thinking – or hoping you could kind of decompose the Forcepoint results and outlook, and kind of help us here since it's a bit different from what we're normally looking at. I noted in Toby's comments that the strength ex-Stonesoft was federal products and services. And you noted in the strategic review the emphasis on very large enterprises; assuming those are commercial. I know the web filtering business is now down to a pretty low level. But I'm just wondering if you could kind of explain to us the sub-components there in terms of what's growing in sales and how that fits in with the strategy. And then clearly the implied guidance for Q4 suggests a pretty big margin step up back up there for the unit. So just wondered if you could give us some color on the moving pieces and help us with...
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yes, Carter, let me do that. And actually we're very excited about Forcepoint because we are starting to see some significant moves in the marketplace. I mean yeah, the solid foundation they have, you mentioned it already. They probably have one of the largest federal groups of any of the competitors out there. In fact, I think a lot of the competitors I wish they had as much federal access as we do into the cybersecurity market. And we sell in that federal group as a commercial company. That's one. We also did mention the next generation firewall that they have that is off and running, getting a lot of traction on that. And you can see the sales on that is up. And then also in the core business, the TRITON Cloud work is – we're also starting to see significant movement in that. The area that I was trying to point out in my discussion is one of the other areas where we've taken – I would call it our defense grade capabilities into the commercial cybersecurity marketplace and that's really on the insider threat. And so we took essentially our product which was, we call it the SureView product. We're tying that together, integrating that with the data loss prevention capability that Websense brought along, and some analytics on top of that and providing an unbelievable capability to the marketplace relative to the advanced insider threat. And as you've probably been reading in the press, there is quite a bit of insider threat issues that are going on across the commercial industry and along different verticals. So we're extremely happy with the performance. And Toby is here, he's got the details and he can just run you through what we saw here in the third quarter and what we're seeing in the future.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Carter, so on the numbers side for Q3 and Q4, even though I did mention the federal and some of the services, when you peel this back and decompose it, the legacy TRITON business also saw significant growth of about 18% in the quarter as well. So we really saw growth across the entire portfolio, with the exception as we expected, we've been talking about the legacy web filtering business, which did continue to decline. Along those lines, I do want to take a second, and as Tom talked about, and as we are evolving our strategic position to align with the cybersecurity market where we see the greatest opportunities, the legacy delineation, when we've talked in the past about TRITON and the web filtering, even though I just kind of gave you some color on it, it is becoming less meaningful to us given our changes in the organization and our go-to-market approach around that. But again, growth across the entire portfolio where we're focused strategically. If you roll that forward to Q4, from a top-line perspective, we'd expect growth rates similar to Q3 on a year-over-year basis and margin that is higher. To your question, we'd be looking at margins in the 16%-plus range for the fourth quarter. Obviously, we didn't change the outlook for the year, so we feel good that the team has a path forward there.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thanks for the color, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Okay.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yeah. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, George.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Question I got is really an explanation. Is it, if I look at the book-to-bill at like you said, it was 1.15, but bookings were $900 million above sales. But if I look sequentially, funded backlog was actually down by around $400 million and total backlog was only up by $500 million. So a big discrepancy. I mean I imagine some of it reflects the mark-to-market from the weaker currencies, but is there anything else going on? Or just kind of explain how they all went together.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. I mean on the funded backlog, that can obviously be lumpy quarter-to-quarter, right, depending upon what's happening there. So, I don't think there's anything different than we may see in any given quarter. From an overall backlog point of view though, you are right, we do have every quarter backlog adjustments for various reasons, including the currency. In the third quarter of this year it was about $400 million that we had as backlog adjustments.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Okay. And if I just follow up, IDS sales were much less than I was looking for and I know probably less than you, because you lowered the top end of the guidance by $100 million. Is that reflecting slower startup of the new programs and the high margin reflecting margin pickup because some of the older ones are ending?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. So you kind of have it right there, George. As I said in my comments, we knew about some certain radar programs and one international communications program that was winding down. So that was what we'd assume going back to the beginning of the year, but we are seeing a little bit of timing impact on a couple international programs. We now expect either late Q4 or early Q1. So that's what's driving primarily the change, what happened in the quarter relative to the revenue, the sales and then also for the total year. From a margin point of view, I think what you're seeing is consistent with what we've been saying, that IDS towards the back half of the year has some of the – and I wouldn't say they are completing. I would say some of the major production programs that we've booked over the last couple years are from an execution point of view moving through their life cycles. They're at points where we obviously feel comfortable in increasing the booking rates there. You saw a strong margins from IDS back in Q2, excluding the TRS gain. We see it again here in Q3. So I think things from our perspective, things are playing out on the margin line at IDS pretty much as we would have expected and if anything a little bit more favorable timing. I think some of the improvements we saw in Q2 and 3, if we go back three or six months, we would have said, would have been in Q4 and 3. So things have maybe even accelerated within the year by about 90 days. But all good news from our perspective.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much, Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
All right. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Thanks, George.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey, good morning everyone.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Jason.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Hi.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Toby, just a quick clarification question for you, Toby. Can you talk a little bit about the cash flow dynamics in the fourth quarter, and what allows you to have that steep ramp? And then Tom for you, can you just talk a little bit about the contracting environment, generally speaking? And kind of the puts and takes you're seeing there from a pricing perspective, contract terms, anything that's changing either here domestically or on the international front that we should be aware of that would impact how the business is going to perform a few years down the road. Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Jason, I'll hit the cash flow real quick here in the fourth quarter. For us nothing's really changed there. If anything we're a little bit ahead from a cadence point of view on a cumulative basis on the overall cash flow compared to when we started the year. So if anything, that ramp up in Q4 is a little less than it was going back to January. I think you all know, we traditionally have a cash profile that's more back-end weighted. There is nothing different this year. And the underlying driver is not one individual thing, but it's primarily some significant milestone collections, really across pretty much the entire portfolio of programs. So nothing unusual from our perspective.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. And Jason, I'll break it in, your question into two parts. I'll take the domestic. In terms of terms and conditions, we're really not seeing any changes in our contracting with the department or with the U.S. government. The department, as you know, is pushing more towards a fixed price incentive fee construct on I would call production type programs than they have in the past, something we were used to many years back. It's kind of rotated back in. So I think going through the initial iterations and making sure everybody understands that kind of a construct and sets it up in a way that provides the contractors an incentive to do well. I think we're going through a little bit of transient on that but it seems like it's settling out pretty quick. On the international side, we again on the FMS contracts, we're not seeing much difference there relative to terms and conditions. Again, there is some issues relative to fixed price incentive fee on production contracts that's actually being debated in the halls of Congress. And right now, the NDAA has some language in it about the international production type contracts at being firm fixed price versus fixed price incentive fee. And that's the only area that I see that's different. And our direct commercial sales, no difference there than we've had in the past.
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein & Company.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Doug.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I wanted to see if you could give us a perspective on the discussions you're having and I would say internationally and that's in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia. When you look at priorities in those areas and you try and parse out say long-term priorities. For instance, we saw Saudi earlier this year back away from littoral combat ship. It's expensive and longer term. And you look at the near-term things, which certainly precision guide and munitions would fall into that category. Can you talk a little bit about how you see these customers making trade-offs, when they sometimes have fairly constrained budget these days?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah. Let me attack that, Doug. And I think what I want to do is go back to this concept of buckets, and we're seeing these three demand areas. One is counter-terrorism, counter insurgency. The other bucket is deterrence, deterring a threat from taking action. And then there's a third bucket out there, which I'm going to say it's third offset strategy type stuff, worrying about near-peer nation threats with advanced technologies. In Europe, I think the big one there is deterrence. We're seeing Eastern Europe very concerned in that area, and so they're looking for systems that will provide in that kind of a deterrence capability. And so we're seeing a lot of action on things like the Patriot System and then also our NASAMS system that we have at the nation's capital and we had a sale in Oman and several other countries out there. So we're seeing significant pull for those deterrence type systems in Europe. As we move to the Middle East, you're correct. I would say it's a little different in Middle East. It's demand from both the counter insurgency, counter terrorism bucket, and then also the deterrence bucket. And on the counter insurgency, I think you can understand that. That's some of the demand, OPTEMPO pull here, for precision weapons and some other ground systems that we have. On the deterrence side, I mean there is a concern, there is neighbor of the GCC that the GCC is concerned about and so you're getting into deterrence there and therefore you see the demand for systems like Patriot across the whole region, and so that's the deterrence bucket. And if we go over to the Asia-Pacific region, it's clear that it's most of the effort there, demands signals is again coming from this deterrence bucket, looking for solutions like Patriot advanced weapons, radars to be able to see things, ballistic missiles before they hit them and so the Asia-Pacific region is in big demand on the deterrence. The third bucket is really coming directly from the Department of Defense, obviously for all regions in the global area to be able to essentially come up from 20 years of fighting wars of insurgency to now dealing with near-peer threats that potentially have capabilities that are at or potentially in some cases maybe better or perceived to be better than what the U.S. has, and so it's a big catch up area there. I mentioned, we did mention on the call about a significant increase in classified work. I think that's really addressing that bucket and to help the Department of Defense regain in some cases its superior capabilities over near-peer threats. And that's it.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
So when you look at, when you look at -
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Does that help?
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yeah, that's a lot obviously, so.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Well I'm thinking about it every day, so.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yeah, I know, I know. But what I am getting at is, when you look at certain things that may have greater urgency, if you turn this all into what does it mean for your outlook, are you seeing over the next few years a greater urgency in some of the areas you just said and perhaps less in some long-term programs? Has it changed the way you've looked at these markets?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I think what's different here in my entire career is each of those buckets is overflowing, and so the demand signals have never been as strong in each of the three buckets and across those three regions. And you're seeing that in our book-to-bill, the 1.15 for the third quarter, 1.14 year-to-date and then over the trailing four quarters, 1.16. We wouldn't be having those book-to-bills if the demand signals isn't as high as it is and across three regions and across three buckets. So, I have a very favorable outlook in terms of where we're going. We did mention on the call, we believe in 2017, just based on the book-to-bills we have, we'll clearly be in the 3% to 5% sales growth in 2017. And you can look to the future, but what I always go back is I look at our book-to-bills and our backlog and base our future outlook on that plus the demand signals we're getting. And I'm personally getting demand signals to go visit those regions from leaders in those countries. So this is real and so we're very, very bullish and positive in the future.
Douglas Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen & Company. Your line is now open.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes. Thank you very much. So, the midpoint of your new bookings target would imply fourth quarter book-to-bill a little bit under 1. That would be the first time in about seven years. And you've just talked about how terrific the demand signals are. Is that a conservative number? And maybe give us some color on, could we have any surprises so we go above the upper end of your guide? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Look, let me start, and maybe more with the numbers part of it and everything. And obviously we give a range, right, as you know of sales and bookings, right. So if you look and if you go to the high end of that range, the book-to-bill would be over 1. It would be about 1.05 give or take. To you point, the midpoint of the range is a little bit under 1. It's not a signal one way or the other from my perspective. We're very pleased. The fact that we've been able to for two quarters in a row effectively cumulatively add $1 billion to the outlook for the year further strengthens the bookings and the demand that Tom was talking about. And I think as we all know the bookings – in any given quarter, we can have some ups and downs or, not my favorite word, but some lumpiness there. So we're very pleased with what we've seen through the first nine months and the outlook for the total year and how it positions us going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies:
Thank you very much. I'm not a fan of talking about pension, but Toby, you sort of set us up a little bit here. If we go through the math, from a cash flow perspective, it would appear year-on-year you're going to do just fine in 2017 and beyond. But from a reported EPS basis, based on sort of where we were a year ago and now, where we look at sort of the midpoint in the chart, it looks like you have a little bit of headwind to earnings. Can you elaborate on that? And is there anything that you can do to address that?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, no, so again, I'll repeat a little bit here, Howard. The estimates that we gave you were to try to provide sensitivity around the variables that affect both the P&L side and the cash flow side of the equation. As a reminder, we will update all of this at year end based upon how the year plays out, and things could be different compared to what we outlined today. But we did want to be transparent and let everybody know what we were seeing, both between the discount rate, where the current year return is and based upon forward looking, relative to capital markets, where the longer-term ROA would be. And I don't know that I can really add anything beyond the sensitivity that I gave in my prepared comments. You're right. The cash flow is going to continue to be positive from pension. There were a lot of questions earlier this year and concerns about overall cash flow, because of the higher required contributions in 2017. That's gotten better based upon our current estimates by close to $200 million. Our overall cash flow for the company next year, as I mentioned earlier, may be slightly lower than where we're looking at for this year, but still very, very strong. And I think if you look out over time, while near term we may have some headwind on pensions from a P&L point of view, for an EPS point of view in 2017, we'd expect that over time even under those lower rates that I talked about, that we would see improvement in that profile, a pattern that would be similar to what we were seeing in the past, where year-over-year the EPS would improve all else equal based upon even revised assumptions in 2017, 2018 – beyond 2017 into 2018 and 2019. So I think I'll leave it at that and we'll move forward here.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I wonder – good morning – if we could talk a little bit about IDS, and in the fourth quarter, we've got some elevated sales implied by the guidance and we saw somewhat higher sales last year as well. But can you talk about sort of how much that reflects timing versus how much that reflects sort of a new run rate? And then similarly, it looks like the guidance implies for the fourth quarter sort of a lower margin. But if we just look back over the past couple years, seasonally the fourth quarter seems to be fairly strong, so maybe some of the dynamics around sales and profitability in IDS in Q4.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah sure, Seth. So when George asked, I told him what kind of happened in Q3 and why we lowered a little bit the range of sales for the year, driven by the timing of some new awards that now we're expecting later in Q4 or early next year. But for Q4 from a sales point of view, even with that narrow guidance, we do expect solid growth in Q4. We have some other awards that we are anticipating we'll be starting up, which are contributing to that growth, as well as some continued ramp on some international Patriot programs that are already in our backlog as they move through their life cycle there. So we have a path forward relative to the growth in IDS on the top line. From a margin perspective, I'll reiterate, we are really pleased with the margin at IDS both in Q2 and in Q3 here. As we had talked about before, we were expecting an improvement in the margin at IDS more in the back half of the year. We've accelerated some of that into Q2 and here again in Q3, we did raise our margin guidance by 20 basis points on the high end at IDS to reflect our solid performance to date. And we continue to expect solid operational performance in Q4, about in line where we are year-to-date, okay. If you want to think of it this way, when you adjust for the TRS transaction, the improvements we're seeing, they can be lumpy as well, right, because they're specifically tied to programs, the execution of those programs, and the timing of those events which in some cases, if not a lot of cases aren't – out of our control. And what we feel that we've done is, we've d-risked that fourth quarter in the ramp that if you go back 90 days, 180 days, the ramp that we would have had in the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein. Your line is now open.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Sam.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I want to ask you a little bit about the capital deployment. I know you talk about having a balanced deployment out there, but you've also in the past talked about not necessarily wanting to chase the stock. And I don't expect you to talk about individual M&A, but certainly you've been talked about out there with regards to something in the order of $1 billion size in the Forcepoint area. And so just want to know how you're thinking about deploying capital in today's world.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Sam, from my perspective, nothing around our thought process here has really changed. As we've talked about in the past, a balanced approach has worked well for us. We're continuing to use that here today and going forward. The underpinning to being able to do that is obviously strong cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet, both of which we have and we're focused on. And then, so specifically from a kind of a priority perspective, we're always looking to invest in ourselves, in the business to drive growth where it make sense. That's not going to change. We'll pursue targeted acquisitions. I think Tom mentioned in his opening comments, ones that fill technology, market access, market channel type of gaps. I won't comment on rumors out there in the marketplace. But what I will say generically, we don't have as part of our plan to go after big deals, okay, that would be something strategic and opportunistic. We want to provide the right level of return to our shareholders, somewhere as we target 80% to 90% of current year cash flow that includes a competitive and sustainable dividend and a buyback, obviously to continue to reduce the diluted share count over time, and we do as you know make from time to time discretionary pension contributions. That said, let me reiterate, because it has come up in the past relative to the thought about any large acquisitions, whether it be on the defense side, and/or the commercial cyber side, that is not in our plan. So rumors are rumors that are out there and I'll leave that at that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, thank you, good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Hunter.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Tom, you highlighted obviously you've strengthened your classified bookings of late and then obviously separately strengthened Forcepoint. But I'm wondering if you can talk about maybe the dynamic as much as you can about how Forcepoint might be able to play in classified. And specifically I'm wondering what the mix is now of classified if any, and if that's a growth market. Do your people out there have TS/SCI level clearances for example, or does the commercial nature of this business really preclude you from sort of marrying those two together, sort of like a super engine of growth? Thanks a lot.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
I'll hit it in two ways. One is I'll talk about Forcepoint and then I'll talk about the rest of the company. So on Forcepoint, it does have a federal group or a federal division. So the folks in the federal division do have the clearances so that they can go work with the different departments in the government and agencies and they can actually go into their facilities and help install the capabilities. And so that's I would call it a very special capability that Raytheon has relative to taking I would call it these commercial products into the U.S. government. On the Raytheon side, we do a significant amount of I would call it government related cybersecurity work with the different departments in the Department of Defense and then also with the different three-letter agencies. And so we essentially handle the highly classified work through the Raytheon Company, the taking off commercial products into the government through the Forcepoint.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line Richard Safran with Buckingham Research.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi, good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning, Richard.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Good morning.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, Toby, I had a bit of the strategic question for you here. In addition to the bomber program, there is a lot of new starts out there like the trainer. We talked about J-STARS recap before. There were also though a number of new sensors like Air Missile Defense Radar, Next Generation Jammer, et cetera. I wanted to get your perspectives on this. Number one, from where you sit right now, do you see the Pentagon getting sufficient funding so that we can actually have a major recapitalization of military platforms and sensors? And also as with the trainer, should we be expecting Raytheon to becoming more of a platform prime, or is that more of an exception and you're thinking about being a major system prime on sensors and weapons? If we're on a long-term trend towards increased defense spending, I'm just trying to get a sense of how you guys are thinking about positioning Raytheon in that area.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Raytheon Co.:
So let me hit the first question and that is does the government have enough money for all these things. I think that was the first question. And a lot of this hinges on the election and what's going to move forward. And right off the bat, both candidates, both parties are pushing for a strong defense. So that's obviously a good sign, both parties and positions are that they want to remove the Budget Control Act caps and so which will be required to be able to fund this, you called it a recapitalization. But it's also some new capability needs as part of this third offset strategy. We are seeing funding going into that area, We did see in 2016 the BCA was lifted and also in 2017 is looking good in terms of its budget moving forward. The question was what will happen in 2018, 2019 and beyond, and if that's really going to be the output of this election, again both parties are significantly supporting a strong defense moving forward. So as long as the funds are there and we have the Congress supporting it, I see that we'll be able to support most of this recapitalization. It will have to be timed out, so that they have enough money to cover it over the multiple years that these new systems take to come on board.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
Tracy, we have time for one more question please.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Myles Walton with Deutsche Bank.
Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks for squeezing me in. Hey Toby, I was hoping you could add a little bit more color to the margin commentary for 2017. You said I think adjusted for the 70 basis point one-time gain, margins would be up, but maybe you can give us a little bit more clarity on an unadjusted basis, how much would they be down. Or if you don't want to go that far, is the run rate of IDS you're seeing here ex the charge in the first quarter and ex the gain a good run rate to be using for next year? Forcepoint's got some structural benefits in the next year. Just more color because that 70 basis points, just squaring it out to expectations might help.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Raytheon Co.:
Yeah, Myles. I'll address margin, but let me maybe give you and everybody a few comments on 2017 a little bit beyond what I mentioned earlier. And if I start at the front end of the business, we do continue to expect to see a solid book-to-bill ratio next year over 1, even on the higher sales volume as I mentioned, which we see growing in the 3% to 5% range. I will say that this growth is more heavily weighted towards our missiles and SAS business, then followed by IDS and IIS, and we also see growth again both domestically and internationally next year. On the margin comment, I'm kind of going to stick to where I mentioned earlier that in 2017, when you adjust for the TRS transaction this year at the segment level, we see segment level margins improving. That said, obviously we're not giving details by business at this point, but since you asked about IDS and historically, there has been a lot of focus there. What I will tell you is, we do see meaningful improvement in the IDS margin next year, again excluding the 2016 impact of TRS. Although I will say that for IDS, if you're thinking of 16% or above next year, that's probably too aggressive and I'll just kind of leave it at that. I mentioned cash flow is going to continue to be strong. We do expect higher cash from the businesses partially offsetting pension and higher cash taxes. On our tax rate, if you recall in 2016, our effective tax rate is impacted by the TRS transaction, and the gain on that of just under $160 million was tax free. So when I look at the tax rate for 2017 right now, think of it around 30%, which is more in line where 2016 would be excluding TRS. And then you mentioned Forcepoint. I think what I'll say on Forcepoint, we still expect double digit growth and double digit margins from them next year. Obviously, our goal today relative to 2017, we'll just give you a high level look where we're headed, we're still working through our process internally to finalize our views on 2017 and in January we'll update you on that including details by our businesses.
Todd Ernst - Raytheon Co.:
All right. We'll have to leave it there. Thank you everyone for joining us this morning and we look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter conference call in January. Tracy?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - VP, IR Tom Kennedy - CEO Toby O'Brian - CFO
Analysts:
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital Jason Gursky - Citigroup Doug Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein Sam Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities George Shapiro - Shapiro Research Hunter Keay - Wolfe Research Howard Rubel - Jefferies Richard Safran - Buckingham Research Group Noah Poponak - Goldman Sachs David Strauss - UBS Robert Spingarn - Credit Suisse Joseph DeNardi - Stifel Nicolaus Myles Walton - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Welcome to the Raytheon Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Tawanda and I will be your coordinator for today. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed sir.
Todd Ernst:
Thank you, Tawanda. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and a slide that will reference, are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are non-historical facts, particularly comments regarding the Company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the Company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discuss in detail in our SEC filings. With that I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with Raytheon's strong second quarter performance. Our global growth strategy continues to drive our results, with second quarter revenue up 3%. Our operating performance in the quarter was solid with a strong increase in sequential margins and cash flow generation in the second quarter was well above our expectations. Given our performance in 2016 to date and how we're seeing the balance of the year playing out, we're raising our EPS and cash flow guidance for the year. Further, based on strong demand that we're seeing from our global customers, we also have raised our outlook for bookings. Toby will walk you through the details in a few minutes. During the second quarter, I visited a number of country leaders in the Asia-Pacific region. And earlier this month we hosted several hundred customer meetings at the Farnborough Airshow. There was a remarkable level of consistency among these conversations. That is customers are interested in capabilities to address two key missions, one, support global counterterrorism campaigns and two, maintain deterrence in a charged geopolitical environment. More specifically we continue to see strong demand for integrated air missile defense solutions, precision munitions and C5 ISR capability. This demand has been broad-based across the European, MENA and Asia-Pacific regions. Further, this year there's been an added sense of urgency. I can't think of a time when our international pipeline of opportunities was more robust than it is today. Our international model which looks at countries as markets, is paying off. Let me just give you a few examples. One of our larger international opportunities over the next several months is the Qatar upgraded early warning radar. This radar will significantly improve Qatar's long-range situational awareness capabilities and represents a $1 billion opportunity for the Company. This follows on the country's previous order for ten PATRIOT fire units and an air defense operating center. We also see further opportunity in-country for TPY-2 radars as part of a THAAD system later in 2017 or 2018. This is consistent with how we've been thinking about the progression of opportunities in the country for some time. Another large upcoming opportunity for the Company is Poland Patriot which is also progressing well. Government to government negotiations are ongoing and we've achieved key milestones with Polish industry on work share, including signing a letter of intent to work with Poland's largest defense contractor, PGC. We anticipate that this multi-billion dollar opportunity will be awarded sometime in 2017. We also see additional opportunities in Poland, including short-range air defense systems related to our NASAMS product line. Looking at second quarter, our bookings were strong with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.18. Strength in the quarter was driven by the billion-dollar next generation jammer booking at the beginning of the quarter, a nearly $500 million upgrade to Kuwait's six PATRIOT fire units, as well as several notable missile bookings for AIM-9X, Paveway and SM-3. You may recall that we also had a strong bookings in the first which together with our 2Q results drove a year-to-date book-to-bill ratio of 1.13. This strength in bookings lays the foundation for future growth and bolsters our confidence in our outlook. In the second quarter international represented 31% of total Company bookings. I'd also point out that with the Kuwait Patriot booking, this is the second consecutive quarter where we have had a significant award, from the MENA region. At the end of the second quarter, 42% of our total backlog was from international customers. Our sales growth in the second quarter was ahead of our expectations. Domestic sales increased slightly, while international increased approximately 8% in the quarter, showing that our global growth strategy remains on track. Overall, international represented 32% of total sales in the quarter. As we look at future growth drivers for the Company, I would like to take a minute to highlight a couple of our many examples. In the second quarter, we delivered the first air and missile defense radar to the U.S. Navy's Pacific missile range facility ahead of schedule. AMDR is the next-generation integrated air and ballistic missile defense radar for the U.S. Navy's DDT 51 Flight III destroyers and fills a critical capability gap for the surface fleet. This delivery is the latest in a series of milestones achieved for AMDR as it advances through the engineering and manufacturing development phase which is now close to 80% complete. AMDR will soon transition to low rate initial production and remains on track for initial delivery in 2019. Another example of a future growth driver for the Company is Small Diameter Bomb II which we continue to test with the U.S. Air Force. Small Diameter Bomb II features a highly advanced tri-mode seeker which includes infrared imaging, millimeter wave radar and laser guidance to find and attack targets from rages that can exceed 40 Miles. Testing will continue the summer as the program moves through low rate initial production. Small Diameter Bomb II represents a $4 billion opportunity over the lifetime of this franchise program. Before closing, I'd like to take a moment to briefly touch on the FY '17's defense budget. As most of you know, both the House and Senate have marked up their respective bills and there are significant differences between them. these differences will need to be reconciled before the budget is finalized. Given this and the fact that it is election year, we're anticipating that there will be another continuing resolution which will probably extend beyond the election in November. This assumption is considered within our financial guidance range. Overall, I'm very pleased with the team's performance in the second quarter. Simply put we had an outstanding results, a solid growth and strong execution. I want to thank the team for all its efforts which continue to deliver for our Company and global customers. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Toby O'Brian:
Okay, thanks Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the second quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to page 3. We're pleased with the strong performance the team delivered in the second quarter, with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the second quarter of $7.1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.18. Sales were $6 billion in the quarter, up 3%, led by our space and airborne systems and missiles businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $2.38 which I'll give a little more color on in a few minutes. We generated strong operating cash flow of $746 million in the second quarter which was better than our prior guidance, primarily driven by the timing of collections. Second quarter 2016 operating cash flow was higher than last year's second quarter, primarily due to the timing of payments and cash taxes, as well as lower required pension contributions. During the quarter, the Company repurchased 1.6 million shares of common stock for $202 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.8 million shares for $602 million. I want to spend a minute talking about the recent ThalesRaytheonSystems transaction that was concluded at the end of June. Raytheon Thalas concluded an agreement to transition the stakeholder positions each Company held in the TRS joint venture structure. With Raytheon acquiring 100% of the TRS U.S. operations and Thalas acquired 100% of the French operations. As a result of the transaction, Raytheon made a net cash payment to Thalas in the amount of $90 million and recorded a tax-free gain of $158 million at IDS or $0.53 per diluted share in our second quarter financial results. Important to note that we had previously forecast this to occur in the third quarter of this year at about $150 million. I also want to point out that we're raising the EPS and operating cash flow guidance that we provided in April, reflecting our strong performance to date. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Company bookings for the second quarter were $7.1 billion and on a year-to-date basis were $13.3 billion, an increase of approximately $1.3 billion over the same period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing four quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.11. For the quarter, international was 31% of our total Company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 29%. For the year, we expect international to be about 35% of total bookings. As Tom just mentioned, we booked several significant awards in the second quarter, including about $1 billion for the next generation jammer program for the U.S. Navy, $574 million on domestic and foreign training programs in support of war fighter focus activities, $487 million to provide advanced Patriot air and missile defense capabilities for Kuwait and approximately $300 million a piece on both AIM-9X, Sidewinder, short range air-to-air missiles and Paveway. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was $35.3 billion and on a funded basis was $26.1 billion, both up approximately $800 million compared to last year's second quarter. We now move to page 5. As I mentioned earlier, for the second quarter 2016, sales exceeded the high end of guidance we set in April, primarily due to timing within the year and better-than-expected performance across several of the businesses. For the second quarter, our international sales were approximately 32% of total sales. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had second quarter 2016 net sales of $1.4 billion. As expected the change in net sales for the quarter was primarily driven by the recognition of previously deferred pre-contract cost on an international Patriot program in the second quarter 2015. In the second quarter 2016, IIS had net sales of $1.6 billion, up 3% compared with the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily due to our cyber security and special mission programs. Missile systems had second quarter 2016 net sales of $1.7 billion. The 6% increase from the second quarter 2015 was primarily due to the Paveway program. SAS had net sales of $1.5 billion. The 9% increase versus last year was driven by higher sales on classified programs. And for Forcepoint, the increase was primarily due to the acquisition of Websense which we completed at the end of May 2015. Moving ahead to page 6. Overall the Company continues to perform well. Our operating margin was 15.9% for the total Company and 14.8% on a business segment basis. It's worth noting that the impact of the TRS gain that I discussed earlier was essentially in-line with our prior expectation and was worth $158 million or about 260 basis points at the Company level for the second quarter of 2016. So looking now at the business margins. The increase in margin at IDS included the results of the TRS transaction. Without the transaction, the IDS margin in the second quarter would've been 15.5%, reflecting their strong operating performance. IIS operating margin was in-line with last year's second quarter. Missiles margin was up 170 basis points in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies and a favorable change in program mix in the second quarter of 2016. The decrease in margin at SAS in the quarter, compared with the same period last year, was primarily driven by a change in program mix. And at Forcepoint the second quarter 2016 operating margin was higher than last year's comparable quarter, primarily due to the acquisition of Websense. Forcepoint's Q2 margin improved from Q2 2015 and as expected, was impacted by integration and transition costs. As we discussed on past calls we remain focused on margin improvement going forward. We're continuously looking for ways to lower our cost, enhance our competitiveness and improve affordability for our customers. In the second quarter one of the key drivers of our margin improvement was the payoff from our investment in factory automation and equipment upgrades and we also saw productivity gains from increased operating leverage. Turning now to page 7, second quarter 2016 EPS was $2.38, better than expected, primarily driven by higher sales and productivity as well as from the timing of the TRS transaction which as mentioned earlier, was previously forecast to occur in the third quarter. As expected, second quarter 2016 also included the tax benefit associated with the new accounting standard for stock compensation which we previously adopted in the first quarter, worth about $0.10. Of note, the second quarter 2015 included a favorable $0.29 non-cash tax settlement. On page 8, as I mentioned earlier, we're updating the Company's financial outlook for 2016 to reflect our improved operating performance to date compared to our prior guidance. We still expect our full-year 2016 net sales to be in the range of between $24 billion and $24.5 billion, up 3% to 5% from 2015. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. We've increased our full-year 2016 EPS by $0.20 from our prior guidance and now expect it to be in the range of $7.13 to $7.33. The increase is driven by our improved performance in the first half of the year, as well as a slight improvement to the effective tax rate and slightly lower interest expense. Turning to our share repurchase, for the end of the second quarter we repurchased 4.8 million shares of common stock for just over $600 million and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 296 million and 298 million shares for 2016, a 3% reduction at the midpoint of the range. Also, based on our strong performance to date, we've increased the range for our 2016 operating cash flow guidance by $100 million and now see it between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion. And as you can see on page 9, we've included guidance by business. We left the sales unchanged from prior outlook. Looking at margins, we've increased the margin guidance range for the Company and now see operating margin to be in a range of 13.2% to 13.4% for the full-year, up 20 basis points from our prior guidance. At the business segment level, we now see the operating margin in a range of 12.6% to 12.8% for the full-year, driven by higher expected operating margin at IDS and SAS. Before moving on to page 10, given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectation for a strong back half of the year, we're now raising our full-year 2016 bookings outlook to $26 billion, plus or minus $500 million. This $500 million increase to the prior range is driven by strong demand from our global customers. On page 10, we have provided guidance on how we currently see the third quarter for sales, earnings-per-share and operating cash flow from continuing operations. We still expect third quarter sales to be in a range of just under $6 billion to $6.1 billion, consistent with our prior guidance. EPS from continuing operations is now expected to be in a range of $1.57 to $1.62, lower than our prior guidance due to the timing of the TRS transaction which we had previously forecast in the third quarter. Some of this impact has been offset by the timing of performance improvements previously expected in the fourth quarter. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earnings calls, with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a solid balance sheet at our current credit rating going forward. We remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth plans and productivity improvements, as well as returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Making small targeted acquisitions benefit our technology and global growth needs these and from time to time, making discretionary contributions to our pension plans. In summary, if you stand back and look at the quarter, we had strong performance. Our bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher than expected. Based on this performance and our near term expectations, we increased our 2016 guidance for EPS, operating margin and operating cash flow. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr:
Given the strength in the quarter really across-the-board and the good cash flow, how come you cut back on your share repurchase from the first quarter and what's your thinking going forward regarding cash deployment?
Toby O'Brian:
Let me address that one. So we had planned and we front loaded the share repurchase based upon the timing of our cash flows, okay? And we always had Q1 in excess of the balance of the year, where more than halfway through what we had targeted at the beginning of the year. That said related to the repurchase, we still continue to see value in our stock. At our last call we indicated a target of 80% to 90% of free cash flow going back to shareholders. Right now we probably see it maybe at the bottom of that range pending market conditions and if we continue to see strong movement in the stock, we're not going to chase the stock price. Share repurchase will still continue to be a core part of our capital deployment strategy, you know, with the stated goal of reducing the diluted share count over time and that hasn't changed. But we will continue to be disciplined when it comes to the allocation of our capital.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland with Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland:
Just a quick clarification for you Toby and a question, Tom. Toby, on the TRS transaction, is there equity income to consider that will be missing going forward? I just was unsure of the accounting implications there but wanted to make sure we all got it modeled correctly. And then for Tom, just on the Forcepoint competitive landscape, I know that during the quarter obviously the purchase of Blue Coat by Symantec. I wondered if you could talk to what implications that has for that marketplace and how you think about the landscape post that announcement?
Toby O'Brian:
Yes, sure. I'll address, Carter, the TRS one. There are a few moving pieces with the remaining venture going forward that impact both IDS operating income and at the Raytheon level net income, but they essentially offset each other and are not significant to our results so we shouldn't see an impact one way the other going forward.
Tom Kennedy:
And on the Forcepoint, you're absolutely correct, Carter. You know, commercial cyber is a dynamic and rapidly evolving environment and you did mention competitive landscape and it's going to continue to shift, Raytheon continues to invest in R&D to ensure that we have the best products and capabilities for customers and that's where we're getting the feedback from our customers on. I would add one thing is that you probably saw that the multiples and valuations for Blue Coat acquisition do reflect the premium value and growth potential that this commercial cyber market currently has. Just a quick status on Forcepoint, we have integrated Websense in with our Raytheon cyber products group. It's substantially complete. It was a seamless transition to the new organization and now we're working to complete the transition of the Stonesoft acquisition into the overall Company and we see considerable upside potential as we move forward based on this business we have put together.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi. Please proceed.
Jason Gursky:
Tom and Toby, I was just wondering if you could just walk us through what you think these bookings that you've been getting here over the last year or so tell us about the cadence of revenue. So over the next several years, it's going to be linear growth? Do you have some visibility on when all of these bookings are going to actually convert into some revenue streams?
Toby O'Brian:
Jason, you know the nature of our business. The majority of these big awards have about a three-year or five-year cycle, in that range. So traditionally, I mean, we lighten up the first year. If it's three year, we lighten up the first year little bit, lighten up the last year and the middle year is the main. But normally it's about a three-year duration in terms of revenue generation out of the majority of the bookings. IIS does have some quick term, one-year type turn business, but majority of the business and a majority of these major awards that we brought in, are three- to five-year type revenue generators.
Tom Kennedy:
And I would just add, you know, obviously we're not giving guidance for 2017, but from when you convert that strong pipeline to a financial perspective, the backlog we had entering the year on the heels of a 1.09% book-to-bill, strong book-to-bill through the first six months, strong four quarter trailing book-to-bill, as Tom mentioned in his comment, a pipeline that we haven't seen of this magnitude for quite some time. We expect to continue to grow that top line, taking all that into account into 2017 and drive margin expansion as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please proceed.
Doug Harned:
I'm interested in on the same topic in missiles. Now missiles you've had really nice growth in backlogs, margins have been quite good. Can you comment on the both what it is in the trends in the U.S.-international mix and do you see the growth trajectory in missiles as a secular one or are we seeing kind of a temporary jump up on things like Paveway that we may not see continued growth there in the same way we have?
Tom Kennedy:
Let me hit that, Doug, real quick. It breaks into three buckets. The first bucket and I actually mentioned in my prior comments, was the counter-terrorism and that's driving the sales on the precision weapons across-the-board at missiles. The other bucket is deterrence and that's essentially driving a lot of the work relative to our Patriot missiles and our Patriot systems and then the last large bucket is, I would call it and these were the third offset strategy or the future in terms of upgrades to new missiles and capabilities. In the middle bucket on the deterrence, there is a large -- when you saw that in terms of awards on our standard missile product line. The bottom line is, is that missile company is getting significant uptick in each of those three major areas and we should see that going out for a sustained period of time, at least over the next five years.
Toby O'Brian:
And Doug, I would just a little bit more nearer term, if I take that op tempo bucket around our consumables and then the rest of the business that the other two buckets that Tom described, think of it this way, for the growth this year is split roughly half-and-half between, you know, driven by the op tempo and consumables and the other half through the rest of the business and as Tom said, based upon the demand we're seeing across the board there, we would expect all aspects of the missiles' business to contribute to growth over the next 12 to 18 months.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Sam Pearlstein:
I was wondering if you could talk about the $500 million increase you had in the bookings. Is that any one program or is that across-the-board? And I guess somewhat related is I know there's been an RFI out for the new increment of the next jammer, next-generation jammer, I'm wondering if winning on the first one positions you well for the next one or if it's kind of starting over from the drawing board
Toby O'Brian:
Let me address the $500 million. The $500 million is multiple opportunities for bookings for the rest of the year. So we're not just hanging our hat on one big award to be able to bring that on board. Relative to next-generation jammer, that program is moving ahead excellently, it's on schedule and we're very happy about the performance of that program. Obviously our customer, the Navy, is also very happy with the performance. We're working with the Navy in terms of the next, I call it next-generation jammer II or another implementation of a next-generation jammer. And we're well on our track I believe to have a solid offering for the Navy on that program.
Tom Kennedy:
I think just to add to Tom's point about the $500 million increase, Sam, you know across multiple programs as Tom said, a lot of the, you know, bookings, the favorable bookings we've seen so far is timing, but within SAS is where we see a lot of those opportunities playing out. They've had a real strong first half of the year between the international classified booking in Q1, JPSS and next-gen jammer that we mentioned, so across multiple opportunities. But the growth would mostly be in the SAS business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George Shapiro:
Yes, I was wondering, Toby, if you could kind of give us what the discount rate impact would be on CAS as if we drew a line today like we've heard from other companies?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes George, so at this point it is too soon to predict where we think things will go between now and the end of the year. You know, we will give everyone an updated outlook as we typically do on the third quarter call. That said, let me give you a little bit of insight to a few things. Year-to-date our asset return is about 4 1/2% and due to asset smoothing any type of actual return would have to be significantly different than expected at year end in order to have a meaningful impact on 2017 THAAD CAS and/or net cash. That said, assuming all other assumptions remain the same, every 25 basis points change in our discount rate has about an $80 million impact on 2017 THAAD CAS and net cash would be unchanged because it continues to be based upon a 25-year average discount rate. So a few variables there that you all can use and model but again, with half the year left to go, a little too early to predict what exactly next year may look like and we'll update you hear at the end of October on our third quarter call.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter Keay:
Tom, you talked about the $4 billion opportunity for SDB II. I'd kind of like to talk about that program for a minute. I think there's still I believe some unknowns around which planes and maybe specifically which variants of planes will be equipped with that in the future and maybe to that extent which countries have interest depending on cost and other things like test results. So can you share with us some of the assumptions that are behind maybe the install base and adoption that got you to this $4 billion number and would you categories that as either conservative or aggressive as we sit here or is there may be upside to that and when you'll hit it?
Tom Kennedy:
So first of all, Small Diameter Bomb II, it's definitely going on the F-35s. So that's going to -- all the F-35s, both the domestic and international, have an opportunity to be able to use that very sophisticated precision weapon. So I think that's the main aircraft now. It also goes on F-15s and F-16s and it's up pretty simple system to integrate on to an aircraft, so we will be working to put that on any aircraft that we're allowed to go put it on. But the bottom line is, is that forecast assumes just the F-35, F-16s and F-15s. A majority of it being domestic, so we have still significant upside from that number on the international marketplace
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Rubel:
I just want talk maybe a little bit about either risk reduction or margin, however you want to define it, but IDS numbers were pretty good, IIS numbers both had very strong revenues and margins and maybe you could talk about where you are on terms of improving some of the risk management and achieving some of the milestones. Because it looks like those were factors in the results. If you could be a little program-specific that would be helpful.
Toby O'Brian:
Yes, so let me take that and then if Tom wants to add any color he can and I'll start, Howard, with IDS, right? So we've been talking about IDS for a while, but we obviously continue to see opportunities to expand margin further in the second half of the year. You know we did raise our margin guidance based upon the results through the first half of the year, up by about 40 basis points, half of that was because of a little bit higher of gain on the TRS transaction and the other half was from productivity we're seeing because of the leverage of the volume going through our factory, the investments in factory automation equipment upgrades, as we mentioned before. And, you know, I talk about our third quarter guidance and how it was from a timing point of view impacted by TRS moving into Q2, but we did offset -- that was worth about $0.50 -- we did offset about $0.12 of that, primarily driven by further opportunities for net program efficiencies to drive more margin. Those are moving in from Q4 to Q3, not just at IDS but at other businesses. So we feel real good about where we're headed going forward from a margin perspective. We would expect to continue as we've been saying both at the Company level and specifically at IDS, to continue to expand margins going forward beyond 2016 into 2017 as well. From an IIS perspective on the sales, they had a good quarter. Their sales were up to 3%, driven by cyber security and special-mission programs. For the second half, we see their sales in line with last year's second half despite having four fewer workdays and we still expect growth for the year at IIS in the low single digits.
Tom Kennedy:
I'll just cap that off, Howard, with the fact that both our Andover plant and IDS and also our Tucson plant, there is -- and on the Tucson plant we tripled production on several of the missiles there without having a significant need to [indiscernible] capital expenditures to be able to do that and also at the IDS plant, because I know you've been at before, the parking lot is overflowing which means there's -- and that's not just a one shift, that's on multiple shifts. So both of those factories are chugging along at very high capacity rates that obviously gives a strong signal and strong support for high margins moving forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Safran with Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard Safran:
You know I heard the comments at the outset of the call on international in the quarter. I also know you're not giving out a 2017 guide, but I wanted to know if you could talk on maybe expectations or maybe comment directionally on international demand for next year, given the strong bookings you're seeing. And as the second part, earlier this year there were concerns about oil prices, Brexit, things like that, that might do to international demand for defense equipment. Could you maybe comment about those concerns and tell us [indiscernible] systems?
Tom Kennedy:
Let me hit on the international side right off the bat here, is that we have 2017, I did mention the Pit Bull and Patriot opportunity and we also have the THAAD TPY-II radar opportunity in 2017 also, 2017/2018. But that's kind of two big ones for 2017, but there are a also significant number of orders for precision munitions that will be coming in, in 2017 and some other areas in terms of missionized aircraft that we believe will be coming in 2017 also. So we believe at bottom line that a strong pipeline of international awards in the 2017 timeframes.
Toby O'Brian:
And I think, you know, you mentioned Brexit and I'll make more of a general comment rather than specific to your question about international. You know, we don't see any significant impact at all from Brexit. Just to put it in perspective, the British pound is the functional currency for only about 2% of our sales, so not a major impact at all to the Company and to the business. And I think on the Middle East, you know we mentioned the order for Kuwait Patriot upgrade for about $0.5 billion here in the quarter. I think Tom also mentioned in one of his prior comments back in Q1 we had another significant order for about $650 million for an international classified customer and we've been pretty consistent over the last couple years, you know, with our customers, our nations that produce oil, that they have a demand for our products because they're looking to protect their citizens and their sovereignty and we're seen no change to that sitting here today.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Noah Poponak:
I wondered if you could dive a little deeper into what's driving the booking strength at SAS. It looks like that's been actually the strongest book-to-bill in the first half and I know there's' some nice exposures in their between space and Intel and unmanned and some other growth areas, but if you could get a little more specific there and then related, it looks like the guidance for revenue for the segment implies revenue would decline a little bit in the second half, despite those very good bookings and the trend you're on in the first half, if you could sort of explain that, that would be helpful.
Tom Kennedy:
Noah, we'll split the question here. As we talked about earlier, we had a major award in the first quarter and that was at SAS for an international product which set them up for a good year in terms of conversion of that revenue in essentially 2016, 2017 and 2018. They've also done quite well in the classified domain in terms of new awards and of converting those new awards into revenue. They also are working in completing up on the next-generation jammer P&D program which is in full swing, another significant revenue generator for the overall business. And I can tell you they're operating on all cylinders relative to all the other programs that they have in there and it's a good healthy mix. I would call it new programs coming onboard, programs that are I would call it in their mature stage and then programs that are starting to fall off. So they have a very good, I would call it a very healthy mix of programs that should be good revenue generators here for the next five years.
Toby O'Brian:
And as far as your question on the, you know, the sales in back half of the year, so sales were up 9% in the quarter and 8% year to date, driven by classified programs at SAS. The second half will be driven by both domestic and international classified programs. Obviously they're off to a good start and we see ourselves ending the year closer to the higher end of their sales range. What may be distorting it a little bit here for you is, you know, we give it to you in one of the attachments, our workdays are a little different this year where the back half of the year in Q4 in particular has four fewer workdays than we saw in 2015. If you normalize for that, they would be showing some growth in the low single digits in the second half.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with UBS. Please proceed.
David Strauss:
Question on cash. Toby, maybe if you could touch on the major components, specifically contracts in process continues to bill. When does that growth slow or level off and then cash taxes, whether there's been any improvement there in terms of what you're looking for and then the potential to maybe smooth the pension cashette that you've talked about in 2017. Thanks
Toby O'Brian:
Sure. So let me start with the CIP. You're right, we have seen a build up in our CIP balance. This increase was in line with what we're expecting. It was primarily driven by our sales growth, along with the timing of program milestones and collections, including the ramp-up on some of the more recent awards that we've had last year and into the early part of this year. It's also, you know, important and I would note that our expected cadence is similar this year to prior years, with the buildup of CIP in the first half and then a decrease in the second half, really driven primarily by the timing of certain milestones and collections. If you look forward to the end of the year and I think we talked about this back in Q1, we would expect our CIP balance to be up compared to 2015 but more in line with what our balance was at the end of Q1 of 2016 and this is in-line with our growth profile and again driven by the timing of program milestones. As we move to the back half of 2016 and into 2017, we will continue to focus on driving working capital improvements and cash flow generation across the business. You know, we obviously saw strong cash flow here in the quarter. Some of it was timing, David, right? But some of it was permanent improvement for the year which is why we raised the outlook for the year by $100 million to the new range of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion. As far as cash taxes go, I think that was your second question, no change from a total year point of view from what we were previously expecting there. We still think cash taxes will be paid a little bit over $900 million for the year. The net of refunds, a little over $750 million for the year as well. I think your third question was around the cash impact in 2017 from the required funding of the pension, you know, so look as we've said previously there, when we hold all the assumptions constant, we see our CAS increasing, going from 2016 to 2017 as we transition fully to harmonization and then remaining relatively flat beyond that. In 2016, the pension cash flow is a bit of an anomaly. It's up from 2015, but then again after 2016, the cash flow from pension, it's still expected to be positive but more as we've said at a normalized rate, plus or minus $700 million, net positive. We do see improved cash flow in our business as programs continue to progress through their life cycles and achieve significant program milestones that will improve the cash position and our continued focus on working capital including cycle time and payment term reductions with our customers will also drive some cash flow which could and will offset part of that increase. You know, as reminder that increase is really driven by the plans coming out of full funding from a PPA point of view and again primarily having to fund the annual-service cost. As we always do, kind of last point here, you know we'll continue to monitor all aspects of the pension and you know, we will consider making it, if it makes economic sense to the Company, to the shareholders, we'll consider making discretionary contributions, you know, before the year's over that could potentially have a further impact on the cash flow profile in 2017 and beyond.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert Spingarn:
I guess I missed it the first time but was on another call. I wanted to ask for a clarification or on polling, Tom and then another question, but is it still this Polish competition, is this for a full-up system or is it a shorter range smaller system?
Tom Kennedy:
There's actually two pursuits or two programs that polling is pursuing. One is a system that the Patriot system satisfies and as you probably have seen in the press, the minister of defense is moving forward with the Poland acquisition. And so it's working government-to-government and also Raytheon is heavily involved in that procurement. And then there's another program which is being competed and it's a shorter range system that ties directly in with the capabilities of our NASAM system, the system that protects our nation's capital. It's also the system that we sold to Oman and about four other countries outside the United States. So that's the two. We're obviously positioned on Poland Patriot and we're working to make sure that we're in a good position on the short-range system, too.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joseph DeNardi with Stifel. Please proceed.
Joseph DeNardi:
Just on a the IDS guidance, seems like the revenue's ramping up in the back half of the year but margins are coming down a little bit, so can you just talk about some of the puts and takes there and whether the exit rate on the revenue side is a good way to think about IDS growth in 2017?
Tom Kennedy:
Yes, so from a revenue point of view, for the total year, we see IDS sales, you know, roughly in line with 2015, with as you said the cadence improving as we move through Q3 and Q4. And that's due primarily to the start up of some new awards this year, as well as the continued ramp-up on some of our international Patriot programs as they move through their normal lifecycle. You know, from a margin point of view, as I said earlier, we still see opportunities for margin expansion. We were pleased with the results in the second quarter. The 15.5% margin that IDS delivered, excluding the TRS gain. As I mentioned, part of that was from accelerating net program efficiencies, profit improvements, from the back half of the year into the second quarter. We see a little bit more of that in the third quarter. We upped the margin guidance by the 40 basis points, half of which was attributable to operating performance, the other half to the gain. And we would expect to continue to see margin improvement at IDS beyond 2016's rate normalized for the TRS gain, we'd expect to see improvement continuing into 2017.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George Shapiro:
Yes, Toby, I just want some clarification. The $0.20 increase in earnings, the way I look at it, maybe $0.03 from the little higher gain in IDS, a $0.05 from taxes. So $0.12 from operations, even though operations you said were $0.20 better in the quarter, so just looking for some reconciliation
Toby O'Brian:
Yes, so the $0.20 and maybe it's just the definition of the buckets here, so you got the $0.03, right? On the gain, right? That's about $0.03 higher, a $0.05 on tax, about $0.09 from the business operating margins, okay? And then there was, I mentioned interest was a little better, that's about $0.01 and then we had some corporate operating items that was another $0.02. So you can bucket it a lot of ways, but around $0.12 out of that $0.20 from operations and about $0.08 from non-operating items.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Myles Walton:
I was wondering if you could touch on a couple competitions. One is the T-X and your T-100 offering there with Alenia. And kind of the progress you're seeing and the type of relationship you're having where it seems like a relatively low investment but a good way to kind of enter adjacent markets and then the GBSD program, as that kind of gets into gear over the next few years, how your go-to-market strategy is in the context of that as well. Thanks.
Toby O'Brian:
Miles, what was the second program you were asking about?
Myles Walton:
Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent.
Tom Kennedy:
Okay, let me hit the first one here on T-X competition and a little bit about our approach to the competition. We're treating the program as more than just an airplane, flying an airplane. It's really about preparing the pilots for the mission success in advance and we're looking at for their ability to deal with multi-faceted and increasingly complex battle space and so what we're bringing to the table is our industry-leading capabilities in training and also next-generation mission systems and believe we're well-positioned to provide the Air Force a comprehensive solution to their training needs here. Our offering is the Alenia M-346 in any configuration and it's already training fourth- and fifth-generation pilots from Israel, Singapore, Italy and Poland. It is a complete system and the classroom to simulators to the aircraft, it is operationally proven. It does provide high degrees of confidence in both schedules cost and performance based on its proven capability. Our T-100 solution incorporates also our team's expertise in live virtual constructive training and again that's to drive efficiency and enhance affordability. In terms of timing, it is our understanding that the Air Force does plan to release an RFP by the end of this year and to award a contract by the end of next year. So we're working this very heavily. It's an important program to Raytheon. It's also an important program to the Air Force and we believe we have the best solution on that.
Todd Ernst:
Okay, we're going that leave it there for the day. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter conference call in October. Tawanda?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining today's conference. That concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President
Analysts:
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc. Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Mark and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon has had a good start out of the gates in 2016. Total company bookings increased 39% in the first quarter and our book-to-bill ratio was 1.08, driven in part by a large year-over-year increase in demand in the Middle East/North Africa region as well as strong domestic bookings. Our first quarter sales were well above our expectation, with strong growth in our Missiles business. Cash flow and EPS were also better than expected. This good start gives us continued confidence in our full year outlook. Toby will cover the financial details with you in a few moments. Across our global markets, demand for precision munitions, command and control, including C5I solutions, force protection, integrated air and missile defense and missionized ISR platforms continues to be strong. As we've seen in prior quarters, our Middle East and North Africa customers are continuing to look past near-term volatility in oil prices and are investing in high priority solutions to address an immediate and rapidly evolving threat environment. I visited the region earlier this month to celebrate our 50th anniversary in Saudi Arabia and met with customers. While there, I received first-hand feedback about the successful performance of our products and how they are helping protect citizens and critical infrastructure every day. I can tell you from these discussions that the interest level across the entire MENA region remains high for the types of advanced solutions we offer. One of the more significant upcoming MENA opportunities includes an early-warning radar system for Qatar at IDS which we expect to be awarded later this year. This program, which will significantly increase the air and missile defense sensing capabilities for Qatar has a value approaching $1 billion and has already been through the congressional notification process. As I mentioned earlier, our bookings in the quarter were strong. When looking across the businesses, a key driver was Space and Airborne Systems, which had a book-to-bill ratio of 1.7 in the quarter, driven by domestic space-based sensor solutions in both domestic and international classified. This was the second consecutive quarter of strong bookings at SAS. And building on this, after the close of the first quarter, we announced that SAS had received a $1 billion booking for the engineering and manufacturing development phase for the next-generation Jammer franchise. These awards provide a solid foundation from which SAS will ramp sales growth into the second half of this year. In addition to SAS, we also saw a strong year-over-year increase in bookings in Missile Systems, driven by a number of products, including AMRAAM and SM-6. Before moving on, I would also like to point out that our overall domestic classified business, which experienced a significant increase in full year 2015 bookings, continued to see strong demand into the first quarter of 2016. Book-to-bill for the total company domestic classified was 1.3 in the quarter. First quarter sales for the company increased 9% year-over-year. Our international revenue was up 17% and represented 30% of total sales. Domestic sales were up 6%, with domestic classified sales increasing 12%. As I mentioned earlier, one of the key drivers of the company's first quarter sales was Missile Systems. Let me take a few moments to talk a little bit more about what is driving activity in missiles. As many of you know, our Missile business includes a number of franchise programs. Our global customers look to us to ensure that these programs continue to offer the most advanced capabilities so that they can stay ahead of evolving threats. A great example of this in the quarter was solid growth from AMRAAM, where we are ramping up production on the latest most advanced version of the missile, the AIM-120D. While this missile shares the AMRAAM name with earlier versions, it is vastly more capable. Across our program portfolio at Missiles, there are many other examples where we create value by upgrading the system's technology, including programs such as the Evolved Seasparrow Missile, a premier ship defense missile for our global customers. Also, we are seeing opportunities to adapt existing technology to new missions, such as in the case of SM-6 in Tomahawk which are now expanding into the anti-ship domain. Finally, we are developing new capabilities that are on the cutting edge of innovation including hypersonic and directed energy. In addition to this, another growth driver in Missile Systems has been the increase in operating tempo of our U.S. and international customers. As we sit here today, we see this continuing to be a revenue tailwind for the company at least through next year. But taking a step back, when you look at Raytheon over the past several quarters, it reinforces the value of our diverse portfolio of advanced solutions for our global customers. The recent bookings strength at SAS and Missile Systems, the significant bookings in longer cycle programs at IDS over the past couple of years as well as upcoming opportunities and the competitive position of IIS and Forcepoint in global cybersecurity markets provide a strong foundation for future growth and margin expansion. We were encouraged by the U.S. fiscal year 2017 defense budget and fight up (7:16) request which was released in February. The overall top line for the fiscal year 2017 budget is consistent with the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, with key focus areas including electronic warfare, ISR, missile defense, cyber and long-range strike, all areas that play to our strengths. The Department of Defense is focused on high end capabilities through its Third Offset Strategy aligns well with the high end capabilities Raytheon is known for. And we are actively working with the DoD in this area. We continue to see broad-based support for funding a robust national defense. Turning now to Forcepoint. We have made considerable progress toward completing the integration of recent acquisitions. Operating performance in the quarter was solid and above our expectations. Further, the business remains on track to meet the growth objectives we've outlined for you on prior calls. With much of the integration behind us, yesterday we announced a change in leadership at Forcepoint. Matthew Moynahan, who was previously at Arbor Networks, will take over as Forcepoint's CEO on May 9. This change is designed to build on the growth capabilities of the integrated businesses. Matt has a deep background of managing technology companies and has a proven track record of driving growth. John McCormack, who did an outstanding job managing Forcepoint, both when it was private and during the integration with Raytheon, is staying on through the end of the year as an advisor. We thank John for all his hard work and help in positioning Forcepoint to move to the next level. Forcepoint remains well-positioned for the future. During the first quarter, we continued to execute our balanced capital deployment strategy. In March, we raised our dividend by 9.3%. This is the 12th consecutive annual increase to our dividend and reflects our view that a sustainable competitive dividend is a key capital deployment priority. We also repurchased $400 million of stock through our share repurchase program. And as we said on the call in January, we expect the full year 2016 share buyback to approximately 2015 levels, market conditions permitting. Before concluding, I'd like to touch on a topic that we don't often talk about on earnings calls, which is of the utmost importance to our shareholders, and that is corporate governance. The company is committed to being a leader in contemporary corporate governance and we believe that good governance enhances shareholder value. In recent years, we have adopted a number of policies, processes and practices to ensure effective governance. To this end, in March, the Board of Directors voted to amend the company's bylaws to implement proxy access, providing shareholders with a process by which they can include nominees in the company's annual meeting proxy materials. The implementation of proxy access follows on our previous adoption of shareholder action by written consent in 2014 and a special meeting measure in 2010 and further demonstrates Raytheon's commitment to world-class governance practices. In summary, we had a good overall quarter of solid bookings, revenue growth and EPS performance. We continue to execute our growth strategy while at the same time placing a high priority on driving shareholder value. So thank you to the entire Raytheon team for the good start to 2016. Together, we have built on the momentum generated by our 2015 return to growth by delivering a strong quarter for our company, customers and shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the first quarter highlights, and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning, if everyone would turn to page three. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the first quarter with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. It's a good start to the year and we're positioned well for achieving our full year outlook. We had solid bookings in the first quarter of $6.2 billion resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.08. Sales were $5.8 billion in the quarter, up 9% led by our Missiles, SAS and Forcepoint businesses. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.43, which I'll give a little more color on in just a moment. We generated strong operating cash flow of $325 million in the first quarter primarily due to the timing of collections and tax payments. During the quarter, the company bought back 3.2 million shares of common stock under the share repurchase program for $400 million. And we announced last month that we increased our dividend by 9.3%. We have now raised our annual dividend every year for the past 12 years. I also want to point out that we're raising the EPS guidance that we provided in January. I'll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to page four. Let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the first quarter were $6.2 billion, an increase of approximately $1.7 billion over the same period last year. International awards represented 27% of the total bookings, and on a trailing four-quarter basis, the book-to-bill ratio was 1.14. A few key bookings in the first quarter included $646 million on AMRAAM at Missiles, and at SAS, over $650 million on an international classified contract and a $553 million award on the Joint Polar Satellite System program. And shortly after the close of the quarter, the U.S. Navy awarded SAS a $1 billion contract on the next-generation jammer program for engineering and manufacturing development. Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $34.8 billion and on a funded basis was $26.2 billion, an increase of approximately $2.4 billion in funded backlog compared to the first quarter 2015. It's worth noting that we ended the first quarter of 2016 with approximately 42% of our backlog comprised of international programs. If you now move to page five. As I just mentioned, for the first quarter 2016, sales were higher than the guidance we set in January. Sales were particularly strong at both Missiles and at SAS. We still expect sales for the company to ramp up throughout the year, with the strong second half driven by our bookings over the past several quarters and the duration of our programs. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had first quarter 2016 net sales of $1.3 billion. The increase from Q1 2015 was primarily driven by higher sales on certain international Patriot programs. We expect IDS sales to increase as we move through the year as some of our international Patriot programs continue to ramp up. In the first quarter 2016, IIS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the increase was primarily due to our cyber security and special mission programs. Missile Systems had first quarter 2016 net sales of $1.7 billion. The 17% increase from the first quarter 2015 was primarily due to both the Paveway and AMRAAM programs. SAS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Higher sales on classified programs, including an international program, contributed to the 7% increase versus last year. And for Forcepoint, the increase was primarily due to the acquisitions of Websense, which we completed in the second quarter of 2015 and Stonesoft, which was acquired in the first quarter of 2016. As a reminder, first quarter 2015 included the results for only Raytheon Cyber Products. Moving ahead to page six. Let me spend a few minutes talking about our margins. Our operating margin was 10.6% for the total company and 10.2% on a business segment basis. We did have two programs with some unique circumstances that impacted our margins in the quarter. One at IDS for $36 million that because it's in a joint venture, about half was offset through the non-controlling interest line on the income statement. And one at Missiles for $22 million. We don't see any significant remaining financial exposure on these programs. If you exclude the two adjustments I just mentioned, our segment margins would be about 100 basis points higher than reported. In addition, as we talked about on last year's first quarter call, it's also important to note that in the first quarter of 2015, Missiles recorded a $25 million, or approximately 170-basis point, favorable resolution of a contractual issue related to a supplier settlement. As expected, IIS and SAS margins were both down compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by a change in program mix. Also, IIS first quarter 2015 margin included the favorable eBorders settlement worth about 340 basis points or $0.42 per share on a total company basis. And at Forcepoint, the first quarter 2016 operating margin was slightly above our expectations for the quarter, driven by strong operating performance. We remain focused on margin improvement going forward and see our base business segment margins in the 12.4% to 12.6% range for the full year, consistent with the guidance we laid out in January. We also see our margin cadence improving as we move throughout the year. As we have discussed on past calls, we are continuously looking for more ways to lower our costs, enhance our competitiveness and improve affordability for our customers. A few examples include executing our strategic sourcing strategy to reduce cost in our supply chain, factory automation, complexity reduction initiatives and reducing our footprint. Given these efforts, our strong backlog and as we progress through the life cycle of some of our production programs, we continue to see opportunities for margin expansion. Turning now to page seven. First quarter 2016 EPS of $1.43 was better than expected, driven largely by higher volume and the recognized tax benefit associated with the adoption of the new accounting standard for stock compensation worth about $0.05. On page eight, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2016. We still expect our full year 2016 net sales to be in the range of between $24 billion and $24.5 billion, up 3% to 5% from 2015. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. We have increased the full year deferred revenue adjustment by $10 million to $77 million to reflect the updated estimate of purchase accounting related to the Stonesoft acquisition we completed earlier in the year. We have lowered our effective tax rate to reflect the tax benefit associated with the adoption of the new accounting standard for stock compensation that I just discussed which, in total, is worth about $0.13 for the full year, with the additional $0.08 expected in the second quarter. We now expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 28.5%, and we have raised our full year 2016 EPS to reflect the tax benefit I just mentioned. We now expect our EPS to be in a range of between $6.93 and $7.13. As I discussed earlier, we repurchased 3.2 million shares of common stock for $400 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 296 and 298 million shares for 2016, a 3% reduction at the midpoint of the range. Operating cash flow in the first quarter was strong and we continue to see our full year 2016 operating cash flow outlook between $2.7 billion and $3 billion. And as you can see on page nine, we've included guidance by business, which is unchanged from our prior outlook. I want to reiterate that at IDS, we still see margins in the 15.9% to 16.1% range. As I said on the January call, our full year 2016 guidance includes positive operating income at IDS related to an expected exit from certain business ventures later in 2016, which you can now think of in the $125 million to $150 million range. This is subject to the finalization of the transaction, which we expect to close in the second half of the year. And as a reminder, when thinking about our 2017 company margin, we see opportunity for upside from 2016 levels, excluding the impact of this gain at IDS that I just discussed, which is expected to be worth about 50 to 60 basis points at the company level in 2016. Before moving on to page 10, as I mentioned on the January call, we still see our 2016 bookings to be between $25 billion and $26 billion, driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. The first quarter was a good step to meeting this target. On page 10, we provided some directional guidance on how we currently see the quarterly cadence for sales, EPS and operating cash flow for the balance of 2016. Here, you can see the ramp we have been referring to in the second half of the year. I want to point out that we now expect the second quarter sales to be in the range of just under $5.7 billion to $5.8 billion, lower than our prior guidance due to the timing of volume that occurred in Q1 that I talked about earlier. And EPS from continuing operations is now expected to be in a range of $1.51 to $1.56, slightly higher than our prior guidance due to the adoption of the new accounting standard for stock compensation, worth about $0.08 in the second quarter. Before concluding, I'd like to spend a minute to talk about our balanced capital deployment strategy. We repurchased $400 million of stock in the quarter, and as we said on the January call, we expect the full year 2016 share buyback to approximate 2015's levels. We raised the dividend by 9.3%, our 12th consecutive annual increase. We continue to expect to generate strong free cash flow for the year and target returning 80% to 90% of free cash flow to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In summary, we saw good performance in the first quarter. Our bookings were ahead of last year's first quarter and sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all higher than the guidance we set in January. We remain well-positioned for the year with our domestic customers' priority areas and continue to be aligned with the evolving priorities of our international customers. Our objective is to drive the business to maximize value for our customers and shareholders. With that, Tom and I will now open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Howard Rubel of Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Good morning. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning, Howard.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Howard.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
Tom, Toby. The – you've – how shall I call it? I used to not have to footnote odd items, and of late there's been a couple of adjustments in some of the periods, and they've been a little bit more adverse than one would have expected out of Raytheon. Tom, what are you doing, or Toby, to sort of eliminate some of these variabilities with respect to operational challenges?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
First of all, there was two programs I think you're alluding to that did impact us on the Q1 results. They do have unique circumstances. One of them was a program, essentially complete and we are having some, I would call it warranty issues on some shelters from a supplier. We are working through that with the supplier. We did take a charge this quarter due to that. However, we are working with that supplier to essentially recover those costs. Very similar to, if you look at last year at Missiles, we had an issue with a supplier and we recovered the cost from that supplier last year. This is unfortunately in some cases part of the business when a supplier doesn't perform or has issues, we have to take the charge, but then we go back and recover those costs, and that's where we're at on that one. The other one was a little bit of a stranger deal with a customer relative to some changes in scope and defining whose responsibility the scope was and also some other issues relative to the structure of the contract. So it's more of a – to us it's kind of a one-time type of an issue. We don't see that as systemic across the business. And so I am looking at these two as one-off and we are disappointed in the fact that they are one-offs, that they even exist, but we don't see them as being systemic across the business. I hope that helps.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And I think the other thing Howard, on these two, as I mentioned, I'll reiterate, we don't see any significant financial exposure going forward on either one of these two programs. We think this captures it and bounds it. And I'd also just augment a little bit; we do have a lot of programs as we talk about historically across our portfolio. We feel very confident in the processes that – by which we use to manage those programs and monitor their progress, and as we said, unfortunately, here there were just some unique circumstances on these two that did impact us here in the quarter and we're going to work to try to at least on the first one at IDS, as Tom said, get some of the impact that we sustained during the quarter recovered through the supplier.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
No – thank you. That makes a lot of sense. And just as a follow-up, the R&D's up again and what we're seeing is – I'll call it a change or an evolution in the threat. Tom, could you address a little bit some of the opportunities that you see incrementally in air defense? I think, again, going back to the HASC, there's clearly more need for the U.S. to work on some improvements and I know you are positioning Patriot to take advantage of some of that.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So I think one of the areas that we're – besides the demand for the Patriot upgrade to configuration 3+ on the existing systems, there also has been a demand for new fire units from several countries that are facing significant issues. As I mentioned, I just came back – I've actually been in the Middle East twice in the – since the beginning of the year already. The last one was to celebrate our 50th anniversary in Saudi. And I got first-hand information from the folks that are using the Patriot systems in both – over that period of time from both the UAE and from Saudi, and I can tell you that the success has been just tremendous relative to them preventing damages due to tactical ballistic missiles landing in their cities and villages. So there's a strong – they're seeing the success of that system which is – I would say kind of unleashing a lot of other demand within the region to have the capability. So that's the basic element. What we're seeing beyond that is a demand on the Patriot system for an advanced AESA radar with 360 capability, and that demand is essentially – the primary part of that demand is coming from international. We also are seeing it from the U.S. Army. That's their roadmap to add a 360-degree AESA capability to the Patriot system. So we have invested in that technology. I mean it goes all the way back to the GaN work that we'd done almost going 15, 20 years ago, but leading up to how we won the AMDR program using that technology, but now it's transitioning into the Patriot system. We're also seeing high demand for, I would call it, Third Offset Strategy concepts, and in there is obviously hypersonics, undersea, you saw Secretary Ash Carter talk about something called distributed lethality and he referenced the work that's being done on Tomahawk and the SM-6 relative to that anti-ship capability. So we're seeing quite a bit of opportunities for either enhancements to our existing systems or new systems that – to ensure that we're positioned to go win those. We are doing IRAT (30:14) activities to support those. I don't know if that answers your question?
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
No. Thank you. That's great.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And Howard, just from a numbers point of view, so the increase in the first quarter were about 3.5% of sales there's, call it, just under $60 million in absolute dollars of increase and that delta is split roughly 50/50, half being related to Forcepoint, right, which because of the timing of the acquisitions, wasn't in the first quarter of last year, and the other half primarily driven by our Missiles business for a lot of the reasons Tom just talked about. And as a reminder, for the full year, we're looking at about 3.2% of sales across the business. That's up from last year; but 80%-plus of that increase again is related to Forcepoint and the balance to the spending across the rest of the defense business.
Howard Alan Rubel - Jefferies LLC:
I appreciate the color. Thank you very much.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Howard.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Stallard of Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Rob.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
In Missiles, you noted you had a very strong quarter for revenues but you didn't raise the revenue guidance for the full year. Does that suggest this is a relatively short-term demand and you don't expect it to be sustained through the full year?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I think we – on my discussions I did talk about the fact that we believe that this volume is sustainable through this year and into next, so we feel fairly solid about the 2016 and 2017 in terms of growth, and Toby'll take you into some of the details.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, I think Rob – some of what you saw in the first quarter at Missiles was timing within the year, not just for Missiles, but for the total company. As I mentioned, we do have a ramp through the year, especially into the back half. So we still see Missiles, to your point in the high single digits from a growth point of view with the cadence improving through the second half of the year as we ramp up on some of our recent international production and development programs. So we feel we still have it pegged with the current guidance, and really, Q1 was more timing than anything else.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
And Rob, one thing we're seeing is a little different this year at Missiles is we're seeing the demand across the entire portfolio of Missiles, all of our franchises, the Paveways, the TOWs, AMRAAMs, the 89Xs the CRAMs, the Griffins, and even a resurgence on our Gen T missiles for Patriot. So it's not like it's in one area. It's across the whole portfolio.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And then maybe a second one. On Forcepoint, I wondering if you could give us an idea of how the older legacy firewall business did in the quarter relative to the more modern products in that division? Thank you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So the legacy filtering business from the legacy Websense was down in the quarter by about a third. Okay? That said, excluding the acquisition of Stonesoft that we had in the first quarter – even taking that into account Forcepoint sales on a normalized basis did grow 9%, so the TRITON product and the Federal business that came over from RCP more than offset the decrease in the legacy web filtering business.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
That's great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Hi, Sam.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Sam.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I guess, Toby, can you talk as to whether the – since the margins are unchanged, especially IDS and MS, were these charges anticipated when you provided the guidance, or is it something that I guess when you're unwinding this joint venture now it looks like that amount at least is higher than the $90 million it was in the 10-K, so did that change? I'm just trying to think about what the offset to these unfavorable changes are.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah. No, that's a fair question Sam. So no, we did not consider these in the guidance that we gave; either the one at IDS or the one at Missiles. Now just remember the $90 million in the K that you're referring to would be the cost to us to exit the venture, not necessarily the P&L impact but the cash impact. But as far as how we expect to see things improving or recovering this, we do expect to see margins get better or expand in Q2 and beyond that into the second half of 2016. And as I mentioned before, even looking out into 2017, we still see opportunity for margin expansion. And again, as a reminder, that's excluding the $125 million to $150 million impact from the business venture exit in 2016. That said, if you think about Q2 for a minute, we do expect it to be in line with Q1 when you adjust Q1 for the impact of the two programs that I talked about, that I mentioned had about a 100 basis point impact. If you look over the last couple years, from a total company point of view, we typically see our higher margins in the back half and even more towards Q4. We still see it playing out the same this year, and it was set up that way in the initial guidance we gave even before these charges. We also have the gain in Q3 from the venture exit that we talked about, and then we do expect the improved performance in Q4 as we ramp up on some of our production programs, both through the retirement of risk and benefit from the combination of strong volume and driving efficiencies. So there is a ramp, Sam. The increase in the gain on the venture accounts for part of the way that this is offset, combined with generally speaking, driving more efficiencies through the business in the back half of the year. And again, other than those adjustments in the first quarter, not much has really changed relative to the cadence as to how we see things ramping up through the year.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about the Mid East, just in terms of the pace of activity? I know you don't have any big binary orders, other than the Qatar, but are customers making decisions at the pace you expect them? Or are you seeing the timing of them stretch out?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think number one is, as you know, we've been in the Middle East a long time. And I just mentioned on earlier the 50-year celebration in Saudi. So we've been working a lot of these projects for many years already, so there's several that are coming to fruition. You mentioned one, which is the early warning radaring in Qatar. And we also have other activities that we're seeing, I want to say strength in, and that is the area of C5ISR across the region. And one of the big areas is integrating all of these missile defense capabilities that a nation has and tying them together and providing a common operating picture for those, tying that together with an interoperating center and then providing an overall joint operating center for the entire country. So we're seeing a demand signal for that kind of capability across the region. And then outside of the radar I mentioned, there's just a replenishment of – essentially of effectors that have been either used or are now kind of off the shelf, the expiration dates that they need to replenish. And that's just happening, so we're not seeing anything that's slipping to the right in those elements in the Middle East right now.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much, and good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning Seth.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I wanted to ask another question about Missiles, and for, let's say, for the four years ended 2015, and this was fairly consistently a $6.5 billion business. Now we're going to $7 billion and then maybe a bit higher than that, and I heard what you said about the sustainability of demand through 2017 and also the fact that OPTEMPO is a factor, is a driver of the growth that we're seeing. So just when you think – I don't know if it's possible, but when you think about what's driven the growth in 2016 and maybe some additional growth in 2017, if you could sort of in maybe a couple of large buckets quantify what the drivers are in terms how much is OPTEMPO versus how much is anti-ship versus any other categories?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think there's really three – I'll hit it in three kind of big buckets. One is – you're obviously correct, is the OPTEMPO. I would say the other one is just the – actually call it the Third Offset Strategy type efforts that we're seeing in terms of enhancing missile capabilities. And I think I already talked about – I did talk about the SM-6 and the Tomahawk and adding in the anti-ship capabilities. And we're also seeing on the – essentially in the missile defense area, our whole SM-3 product line and the enhancements there relative to missile defense. And if you marry those to what you're seeing out in the world today, relative to the tempo efforts that are going on in the Middle East, the stuff from North Korea relative to the missile defense required for that, it ties in. And then the overall Third Offset Strategy bringing in the improvements in our Missiles across the board, including looking at hypersonics. I think those three things are driving it. So as I mentioned before, we're not seeing just one of the franchises, or a couple of the programs increasing in volume and increasing demand, it's across the whole portfolio. I think that's what's different.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
All right. And if you – would you say that in those three buckets, are they roughly equal contributors to the overall growth of the business over the 2016, 2017 timeframe? Or is it much more weighted toward one or the other?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say, and I don't have the details in front of me, but the tempo is driving up at a faster rate than the other two. But the other two, the rates on those are increasing over prior years. How's that?
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Very good. Very good. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland from Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, gentlemen.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Carter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Morning, Carter.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I wanted to ask quickly about Forcepoint and the leadership change there and just if that signals anything about the company's direction or strategy or opportunities, challenges. I know that clearly the growth was pretty impressive on the ex-Stonesoft and ex-the legacy filtering stuff. So just wondered if you could speak to that and what you're seeing and what it means in terms of the change there?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, Carter, I'll just give you a quick, from a financial perspective, and then let Tom weigh in on it from a balance of the question there. But we didn't change the outlook for the year. So things are on track financially, both from a growth and a margin point of view. And we've been talking beyond this year that we would expect to see beyond the high single-digit growth rate this year, moving into the teens with some margin expansion. So all that still remains on track, and Tom can add to that as well.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So let me step back because we're going on one year since we acquired the Websense company and then integrated it in with our Raytheon Cyber Products group. And then with the recent acquisition of Stonesoft created a, I would call it a commercial cyber security products company that has about a $600 million revenue, which puts it right up there in terms of the largest cyber security commercial software companies in the world. And what we're seeing is the demand for those products across, essentially across each one of their major areas, the TRITON product, the Stonesoft next-generation firewalls, and the SureView product line that came out of RCP. And we're really looking at how do we go to the next level relative to the growth of that business. And one of the areas that we see as a big opportunity is in the large enterprises. The Websense company came across as a very strong, solid foundation in the SME area, small to medium-sized enterprises, with some large enterprises. But we see significant opportunity in expanding into the large enterprise area. And Matt Moynahan has significant experience in that area, his work all the way back in Symantec, Veracode and also at Arbor Networks. And so we needed to bring in a leader with that kind of experience to go drive the expansion and the market segmentation into those two groups. That's really the – he's the right guy to now come in and then take the steed. (44:19) J-Mac, John McCormack did an excellent job for us in the integration and making sure that we had a solid foundation, but we believe now it's time to bring in somebody who can take us into the next markets, especially in the large enterprises.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. And then just two quick follow-ups for Toby. One, on the adjustment in IDS, have you assumed any recovery whatsoever, a partial recovery of those costs? Or would that all be a reversal on upside? And then if you could remind us what the pension funding requirement stands at for 2017 and 2018?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Sure. On the IDS question, we've not assumed any additional recovery in our outlook beyond the charge we took, but as I mentioned and Tom mentioned, we are going to work to pursue that from our subcontractors going forward. On the pension requirement, next year – this year we're looking at about $165 million. Next year it's about $933 million, and as a reminder, that increase is due to the fact that the plan comes out of full funding from a PPA point of view. We now have to fund the annual service cost and obviously, given the market performance last year, we would be needing to recover and fund the – or amortize over a few years the shortfall that we had. When you look out beyond, in 2017 and beyond, I think the best way to think of it is from a net cash perspective, a net funding perspective. While it's not as much as this year, right, which is around a positive $1.3 billion, think of it as about $700 million based upon current assumptions per year in 2017 and beyond as a run rate going forward.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
So it kind of flattens out from that 2017 level?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah. 2016 is a little bit of an anomaly given how CAF harmonization kicks in. We're still in full funding from a PPA point of view. So we have the spike up to the $1.3 billion. Last year, as a reminder, we were about $800 million, but the $700 million plus or minus would – based upon our current assumptions, would be a run rate.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you very much.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Hunter.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
So, you guys mentioned the term evolving priorities of your international customers in your prepared remarks and presumably, and you touched on this a little bit earlier, but presumably you're talking about the dynamics of an evolving battlefield. But is it also a comment embedded in there on an increasing focus on price or value for the money that they're spending as their needs evolve?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I think there's always a concern on their part that they're getting value for their money. And I think that's one of the areas is does the system work. Can they operate the system? And I think my last trip in, seeing the fact that they are operating the systems that we provide and that they are seeing success is ensuring them at least the value that they're getting from our solution set that we offer. So I didn't see any issues relative to any of my visits in country, relative to any concerns in terms of value for what they're getting from us. Because they're getting the results.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Yep. And then you guys mentioned long-range strike as a funding priority, so I'll just bring it up. Is there any color you guys can provide us on your potential role on B-21 either whether it's radar or something else. I think a lot of people assumed you were part of the Boeing Lockheed team. Do you see yourselves possessing a role on that program going forward? Really anything you would be willing to provide on that would be great. Thanks for the time.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, unfortunately, we can't talk about it. So...
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Okay. Thought I'd ask. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Richard Safran from Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning, Rich.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Tom, I wanted to ask you a question. You had a release about an ATACMS replacement that you're offering a new missile design, long-range for a precision fire. So I had a bit of a multi-part question on that. So you've been talking about the demand for your current missile products. What's the interest level at the Pentagon right now for a new missile program? Has the Army decided to move ahead with a new missile program rather than just extend ATACMS? And I was wondering if you could give us any sense about the size and timing of the program, about any opportunity?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well it's definitely at its infancy right now. We are working with the Army, also with some of our competitors, to help them define what this program is moving forward. Obviously we feel that a new missile can provide the best capability with the best cost and being able to integrate as much of the new technology that's out there as possible. So that's really our position moving forward on it. It's at its infancy. And as we get more information relative to the Army, we'll be glad to share that with you over time.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay. And then also on another program you were talking about, the next-generation Jammer and the $1 billion dollar award and the 15 engineering development pods. Could you discuss a little bit about how that contract will play out, period of performance there for the $1 billion reward? And if the Navy moves to the next phase, how big of an award could that be?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well again, this is – this award is to go complete the engineering, manufacturing and development phase of the program. And so the assets or the pods, 15 pods that are going to be developed are essentially EEMS assets, (50:23) assets that'll be used for qualification in terms of flight tests and also environmental tests that will be done on the pods to ensure that they meet the overall requirement needs of the United States Navy. So that's what that program is. Following that program, there'll be a transition to production, LRIP and then a full-on – you asked about a period of performance. It's approximately four years for that $1 billion-dollar program.
Richard T. Safran - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks very much for that. Appreciate it.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Strauss of UBS. Please proceed.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning, David.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Just a quick housekeeping. Toby, on the IDS gain that you're expecting, is that – I think you said $125 million to $150 million before. I think you were talking about $100 million to $125 million. Is that correct?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
That's correct.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Going back to margins, obviously, moving around a fair amount at this point. I guess maybe Tom or Toby, could you maybe talk about what – by business, what you kind of see as a normalized margin level? I know margins are supposed to pick up in the back half of the year and into 2017. But you've got IDS looking like it's running below normal, SAS below, but Missiles may be a little bit above. So any color you could give around kind of what we should expect for normalized margins by business? Thanks.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
So I – David, I think that's a little tough to do, to really define normalized given the mix of development and production programs and the timing of completions and starts move around and it's not consistent business-by-business. What I can maybe give you a little bit of color on, I'll just go real quick by the businesses is maybe give you an indication on how we see things playing out through the balance of this year, right. So we talked about IDS and what happened in the quarter with the $36 million impact. But we do see the margin improving through the year, partly driven by improvement in business mix as some of our larger international programs move through the production cycle. And then you mentioned it a minute ago, we do have in the second half, in the third quarter, the gain from the exit of the venture, which is $125 million to $150 million, and that's about 210 to 250 basis points at the IDS level. For IIS we're expecting total year 7.4 to 7.6 (53:16). That would be roughly in line with 2015 after adjusting for the Q1 eBorders. What we see happening, compared to Q1 there, is improved mix moving going forward within IIS. Some improved productivity as we move through the year, and also some improvement coming from expected award fees for IIS. From a Missiles point of view, we talked about the impact in the first quarter with the $22 million adjustment, but if we look forward for the balance of the year, we still see Missiles getting to the 13% to 13.2% range with margins starting to improve or expand in Q2 and in the second half of the year. Really driven by mix and the timing and the ramp up of programs and some expected efficiencies that we would see at Missiles. At SAS, they were down year over year in Q1 as we expected really, driven by some mix, but they were a little bit ahead of our expectations for the quarter. And then, when we think about SAS moving forward, again we're still in the 12.9% to 13.1% range and we do expect the margin to improve throughout the year driven by more favorable mix and therefore the timing of some program improvements. At Forcepoint, real quick, margin improved in the quarter because of the addition of Websense the acquisition last year. It's still on track for the total year of 11.5% to 12.5% range. Really with a little bit more of a ramp or expansion in the second half of the year driven by two things, the completion of integration activities related to the Stonesoft acquisition and also as the sales ramp up in the back half of the year. So overall, we do see the cadence improving in Q2 as well as the second half, primarily as we progress through program lifecycles on some of our more recent awards and due to the timing of expected program improvements as well.
David E. Strauss - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks for the color.
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Sure. And Mark, we have time for one more call or one more question.
Operator:
Your last question comes from Myles Walton from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks for taking the question. Good morning. I wanted to ask on SAS, it does look like the backlog trends there are turning around pretty good after a few years of in decline. The 1Q is good and then the Jammer drops through. I'm not sure of the duration of the ones you booked in the quarter and then obviously the Jammer is a bit of a longer duration, but is SAS going vie for – start to vie for growing at or above company trends in 2017 and 2018 given the book of business you're getting?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean so the – you're absolutely correct on the Jammer. That's about a four-year period of performance. The other big contract, the classified one, is another four-year period of performance. So I would say it's going to have sustainable growth definitely over the next two years, just based on the bookings that they've received here in the last quarter, and obviously last year in 2015.
Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And Toby, just a quick one. As you look at this tax rate impact for this year, is this something that would be recurring as you have the three-year vest? So now we're building into the model for 2017 and 2018, 100 basis points lower tax rates.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
So there's the potential for it to be recurring, Myles. We have our shares that vest, some of them vest in Q1, and some of them vest in Q2. And the determination as to whether there'd be an impact is driven by where the market price of the stock is on the date they vest compared to the price at issuance, the strike price at issuance. So there could be volatility, but it could be negative volatility as well if our stock price were to go down. So we're going to have to assess that on an annual basis based upon the market and what's happening out there. So I wouldn't necessarily jump to the conclusion that the 100 basis point adjustment is the right thing. It will be really something that we'll have to look at on a year to year basis.
Myles Alexander Walton - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. All right. Thanks so much.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Sure.
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Okay. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter conference call in July. Mark?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - VP, IR Tom Kennedy - Chairman and CEO Anthony O'Brien - CFO
Analysts:
Jason Gursky - Citigroup Doug Harned - Sanford Bernstein George Shapiro - Shapiro Research Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets Sam Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Howard Rubel - Jefferies Hunter Keay - Wolfe Trahan Research Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company Peter Arment - Sterne Agee
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Mark, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed sir.
Todd Ernst:
All right. Thank you, Mark. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call, and the slides that we'll reference are available on our web site at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Tom Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning everyone. I am very pleased with both our fourth quarter and full year 2015 results, and I'd like to begin by touching on a few highlights. Our total book-to-bill ratio for the year was 1.09. This reflects strong global demand for our Advanced Solutions, and positions us well going into 2016. We finished the full year with top line growth of 2%, driven by our growth in our international business, which more than offset a slight decline in domestic. Company segment margins in 2015 were as expected, at 13.1%, as the team delivered solid operating performance. Cash flow was also solid, providing us the opportunity to return the majority of our cash flow to shareholders, while also funding our pension plans and investing in our future growth. So all in all, the company is performing very well, and we are confident in our future. As you can see from our 2015 results and the 2016 outlook, the global threat environment continues to drive demand for Raytheon solutions. I would also add that, in my conversations with our global customers, it is clear that short term shifts in economic growth factors have taken a back seat to ensuring the sovereignty and security of the nations that face these security threats. In particular, let me highlight what we are seeing in three regions. In the Middle East, demand signals increased last year, despite the decline in oil prices. Tensions within the region are driving demand for missile defense, long range radars, modernized command and control systems, sensors, cyber security and precision munitions; areas that align with our core strengths. I have been asked many times if oil prices have impacted demand. From our viewpoint, we have not seen a negative impact, and here is one of many examples why. Over the past year alone, Patriot has intercepted more than a dozen ballistic missiles fired in the region. Missiles that otherwise could have caused significant casualties and damage to critical infrastructure and defense sites. In the Asia-Pacific region, customers are also updating their missile defense systems, sensors and other capabilities in light of recent developments there. Increased tensions related to territorial disputes and evolving economic interests are motivating allies in this region, to invest more heavily in deterrent capabilities, to protect their national interest. As you may recall, South Korea awarded us a significant upgrade to its Patriot systems in 2015. Looking forward in 2016, we see opportunities across the region in tactical radars, ship-based radars, missiles, force protection systems and precision munitions. And in Europe, we are seeing renewed and increased interest from a number of countries, in acquiring integrated air and missile defense solutions, providing additional opportunities for Patriot and NASAMs. Domestically, we were pleased to see the passage of the Bipartisan Budget Act, which adjusted the defense budget caps higher for fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year 2017, including a 15% increased in modernization funding in fiscal year 2016. These changes provided much needed funding for our armed forces, while also improving visibility and predictability for the defense industry. This will yield a positive impact on our results beginning in 2016, and then continuing into 2017. Even as we emerge from several years of declining U.S. Defense budgets are now beginning to see growth, the environment remains competitive. To ensure Raytheon's long term competitive advantage, we have increased our independent research and development, capital expenditures, and other investments to fund the development of the advanced game changing technologies of the future. Ranging from hypersonics and cyber security to directed energy. As expected, IR&D reached 3% of our sales in 2015, a similar level is expected in 2016. Now let me give you some more details about our 2015 results; strong demand from global customers drove bookings of $25.2 billion for the full year; a 5% increase over 2014. Domestic bookings were strong, with a full year book-to-bill ratio of 1.04. This sets up a better than originally expected domestic revenue growth outlook for 2016, which I will discuss more in a moment. International comprised 34% of our total bookings in 2015, and our international book-to-bill ratio was a very robust 1.19 for the year. Total backlog at the end of 2015 was $34.7 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion over 2014. Again, providing a solid foundation, as we move into 2016. International ended the year at 43% of total backlog, compared to 40% at year end 2014. Successful execution of our growth strategy and increasing demand from our global customers resulted in return of growth in 2015, a year earlier than we had originally expected. Our full year 2015 international sales increased 9% over 2014, reaching 21% of our total annual sales, a new company record. In addition, for the second consecutive year, we saw good growth in classified sales, which increased about 6% in the year. In this environment, we are also continuously looking for more ways to lower our costs, enhance our competitiveness and improve affordability for our customers. A few examples include, executing our strategic sourcing strategy to reduce costs in our supply chain; leveraging our centralized global business services organization to more efficiently provide back office support to their businesses, and reducing our footprint, taking out a gross total of 1.9 million square feet in 2015. In addition, we have kicked off a new complexity reduction initiative to reduce costs and simplify business processes across the company. Looking forward to 2016, we expect to see continued strong demand, that should ultimately drive our bookings to the $25 billion to $26 billion range for the year. This would translate into a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.05. Key bookings for the year include Qatar early warning radar, the EMD phase as a next generation jammer, and SM3. More than ever before, demand from our global customers is broad-based and diversified. Along with the strong bookings we experienced in 2015, this continued strength should position us well to deliver revenue growth of between 3% to 5% in 2016, which is better than what we had mentioned when we provided our initial outlook during the Q3 earnings call. I would add that this includes an expectation of 2% to 4% growth from domestic customers. This would be the first time we have seen growth in our domestic business since 2009. Further, cash flow from operations is expected to increase significantly in 2016, from solid 2015 levels. The strong fundamental performance provides a foundation for the continuation of our balanced capital deployment strategy, with the objective of creating shareholder value. Our number one priority remains executing our growth strategy and investing it ourselves. Beyond this, we remain committed to providing a competitive dividend. We also continue to see value in our stock and expect to continue the share buyback at the 2015s robust levels. Part of our growth strategy is bringing our advanced cyber security capabilities to government and commercial customers around the world. In 2015, in support of this strategy, we increased our presence in the commercial cyber security market in a meaningful way, with the formation of Raytheon Websense. And earlier this month, we changed its name to Forcepoint to more effectively brand and position our broad cyber security capabilities in the market. We further strengthened Forcepoint by completing the acquisition of Stonesoft at the close of the fourth quarter. The small acquisition, which is consistent with our M&A strategy that we have articulated over the past several calls, provides next generation firewall technology that fills an important technology gap and broadens our cyber security capabilities. The Stonesoft acquisition will become part of the Forcepoint business segment. We are excited about the breadth and depth of the product offerings at Forcepoint, that places us in a strong competitive position. I'd like to close by thanking the Raytheon team for a great year, and for the dedication and all the efforts that went into returning the company to growth ahead of schedule, while continuing to deliver for our global customers. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Anthony O'Brien:
Okay. Thanks Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the fourth quarter and full year results. Then I will discuss our outlook for 2016. After that, we will open up the call for questions. During my remarks, I will be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning, which are posted on our web site. Okay, would everyone please move to page 3? We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in both the fourth quarter and the full year, with bookings, sales, EPS and operating cash flow all consistent with or better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the fourth quarter, at $7.9 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.24, and for the year, we had bookings of $25.2 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.09. This sets the stage for continued growth in 2016, which I will discuss in more detail in just a few minutes. Sales were $6.3 billion in the quarter, up 3%, led by our missiles, IDS and Forcepoint businesses. International sales grew 16% in the fourth quarter, and for the year, sales were up 2%, ending at $23.2 billion. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.85 for the quarter, and $6.75 for the full year, which I will give a little more color on, in a few minutes. We also generated strong operating cash flow of $813 million for the quarter and $2.3 billion for the year, after a $200 million pre-tax discretionary pension contribution, which was not in our prior guidance. Additionally, during the quarter, the company repurchased 2 million shares of common stock for $250 million, bringing the full year 2015 repurchases to 9 million shares for about $1 billion. As we have previously disclosed in the fourth quarter of 2015, our Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $2 billion of the company's outstanding common stock. The company ended the year with a solid balance sheet and net debt of approximately $2.1 billion. Turning now to page 4, let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full year results. As I mentioned earlier, we had strong bookings of $7.9 billion in the quarter and $25.2 billion for the full year, resulting in a year end backlog of $34.7 billion. The company ended 2015 with a funded backlog of $25.1 billion, an increase of $2 billion from year end 2014. Its worth noting that both IDS and Missile Systems had outstanding bookings performance for the full year 2015. For the quarter, international orders represented 27% of our total company bookings, and for the full year was 34% of total bookings. And as Tom mentioned earlier, at the end of 2015, approximately 43% of our total backlog was international. Turning now to page 5; we had fourth quarter sales of $6.3 billion, up 3% over the same period in 2014. This was at the high end of the guidance range we had set in October. So looking now at the businesses; IDS had net sales of $1.7 billion in the quarter, and they were up 5% from the same period last year. Primarily due to higher sales on certain international Patriot programs and on the Air Warfare Destroyer program. Net sales at IIS were $1.4 billion in the quarter, down from the same period last year, primarily due to lower sales on an international classified program. Missile Systems had fourth quarter 2015 net sales of $1.9 billion, up 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. The increase was primarily due to higher sales on Paveway. SAS had net sales of $1.6 billion in Q4, the change was spread across numerous programs, with no one significant driver. And for Forcepoint, the increase was primarily due to the acquisition of Websense, which we completed in the second quarter of 2015. As a reminder, fourth quarter 2014 included the results for Raytheon cyber products only. For the full year, sales were $23.2 billion, up approximately 2% over full year 2014 consistent with expectations. International sales growth more than offset the slight decline in domestic sales. Moving ahead to page 6; we delivered solid operational performance in the quarter and the full year. Looking at business margins in the quarter, as expected, in the fourth quarter of 2015, IDS received a contract modification to restructure the AWD program, essentially separating our incentive fees from the shipyard's performance. This resulted in a favorable $53 million adjustment in the fourth quarter of 2015 for IDS. Missile Systems and SAS margins both exceeded the guidance range that we provided back in October, while both IIS and Forcepoint met our guidance. Turning to page 7, we had solid operating margin performance for the year. Segment margins were 13.1%, which was consistent with our expectations, and as a reminder, this included $181 million for the eBorder settlement earlier in the year at IIS, worth about 80 basis points. On page 8, you will see both the fourth quarter and full year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2015, our EPS was $1.85 and for the full year was $6.75. EPS for the quarter was strong and above the guidance we provided you in October; even after accounting for the extension of the R&D tax credit. As a reminder, the R&D tax credit was worth about $0.11 and was not in our prior guidance. Moving on to our 2016 guidance on page 9; we see sales in the range of between $24 billion and $24.5 billion, up 3% to 5% from 2015. The increase is driven by growth in both our domestic and international business. Our 2016 outlook for the deferred revenue adjustment is $67 million, and for the amortization of acquired intangibles is $121 million. Its important to note, that effective January 1, 2016, we reclassify amortization of acquired intangibles and the deferred revenue adjustment. This change affects all businesses other than Forcepoint, which had already been reporting that way. These non-cash items will no longer be reported within the business segments. Instead, these will be reported in separate deferred revenue adjustment and amortization of acquired intangibles lines, that we have provided for you here. A reconciliation that walks you from the prior method to the current one is in Attachment G to the press release. As for pension, we see the 2016 FAS/CAS adjustment at a positive $428 million, which I will discuss in just a minute. We expect net interest expense to be between $220 million and $230 million. We see our average diluted shares outstanding to be between $296 million and $298 million on a full year basis, a reduction of approximately 2% to 3%, driven by the continuation of our share repurchase program, which we expect at levels comparable to 2015. We expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%. Our 2016 tax rate is higher than 2015, primarily due to the $0.29 per share favorable tax settlement we received in 2015. Its important to note that our 2016 tax rate includes the R&D tax credit, which was permanently extended at the end of 2015. In 2016, we see our EPS to be in the range of $6.80 to $7. Our operating cash flow for continuing operations for 2016 is expected to be between $2.7 billion and $3 billion, compared to $2.3 billion in 2015. As we sit here today, we do not anticipate making a discretionary contribution to our pension plans in 2016. As we previously mentioned, we did make a $200 million discretionary contribution in 2015. Before moving on to page 10, I want to mention that we expect our 2016 bookings to be between $25 billion and $26 billion, driven by demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers, and we expect stronger bookings in the second half of the year, similar to the last several years. Continuing on to page 10, before I cover the 2016 guidance by business, its important to note that effective January 1, 2016, we reorganized the IDS and IIS business segments to move certain air traffic systems, border and critical infrastructure protection, and highway tolling programs from IDS to IIS. We did this to more efficiently leverage our capabilities within the businesses. To assist you with your modeling, you will find the recast segment data in the attachments provided at the end of the earnings release. Now moving to our initial 2016 guidance by business; at the midpoint of the sales range, we expect to see growth in all of our businesses in 2016. With respect to segment margins, consistent with our prior comments, we expect 2016 margins to continue to be solid in the 12.4% to 12.6% range, which is in line to slightly up when you compare to 2015 excluding the eBorders settlement. And similar to 2015, our 2016 segment margin outlook assumes that IR&D is approximately 3% of sales. I would also like to point out, that when it makes sense, we have and will continue to make opportunistic investments in specific next generation U.S. programs to better position the company for longer term organic growth. Investments which we believe will create value for our shareholders. At IDS, we see margins in the 15.9% to 16.1% range. I want to point out, that our full year 2016 guidance includes operating income at IDS related to an expected exit from certain business ventures later in 2016, which you can think of in the $100 million to $125 million range. Excluding this, the change from 2015 is driven by mix, most notably, we are continuing to ramp up on several new programs, including on a couple of Patriot awards that we received in early 2015 from South Korea and Saudi Arabia. As you know, we typically see lower margins at the inception of longer duration programs, which can increase over time, as we retire risk and drive operational efficiencies. We expect IIS margins of 7.4% to 7.6%. This is in line year-over-year when you adjust for the 2015 eBorders settlement. We see missiles margins in the 13% to 13.2% range, consistent with 2015. SAS margins are expected to be in the 12.9% to 13.1% range, down from 2015, driven by mix as a result of completing some international programs, as well as from higher business investments in 2016. And at Forcepoint, we expect margins to be in the 11.5% to 12.5% range, this includes the impact from the Stonesoft acquisition that Tom discussed earlier. Without this impact, margins would be approximately 15%. If you now turn to page 11, we have provided you with our 2016 outlook by quarter. You notice that sales ramp up throughout the year, and on page 12, as we have done in the past, we have provided a summary of the financial impact from pensions in 2015, as well as the projected impact for 2016 through 2018, holding all assumptions constant. As I mentioned earlier, we see the FAS/CAS adjustment in 2016 at a positive $428 million, which reflects our investment returns in 2015 on our U.S. pension assets, which were flat, and the December 31 discount rate of 4.5%. The discount rate is up 40 basis points from last year. Looking beyond 2016, keep in mind, each 25 basis point change in the discount rate drives a $70 million to $80 million change in FAS/CAS. And finally on page 13, we have provided an updated three-year outlook of the acquisition accounting adjustments, to help you with your long term modeling. Please note that you will see a significant decline in the deferred revenue adjustment over the period, and the amortization of acquired intangible assets will begin to decline more significantly, after 2018. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earning calls, with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet at our current credit rating going forward. We remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth plans, as well as returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, making smaller targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs, and from time-to-time, making discretionary contributions to our pension plans. Let me conclude by saying that in 2015, Raytheon again delivered solid operating performance, with bookings, sales, earnings and operating cash flow, on or ahead of expectations. Book-to-bill was strong, and our international business grew significantly. We have a strong balance sheet, which gives us flexibility and options to continue to drive shareholder value, and we are well positioned to grow in 2016 and beyond, both in our international and domestic business. So with that, we will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Jason Gursky from Citi. Please proceed, sir.
Jason Gursky:
Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking the call here. I was wondering if you could just walk through the cadence for the year in a little bit more detail. Perhaps talking a little bit about opportunities and risks through the cadence for the year, what would cause things to come in a little earlier? What would cause things to get pushed out, and just kind of how you generally view the risks and opportunities for the cadence for the year, that would be great?
Anthony O'Brien:
Hey Jason, it's Toby. So I think if we step back from this and look at a high level on the cadence, what you see from the revenue profile, it's not too dramatically different than last year. It's influenced by, as you would expect, the timing of awards, especially in 2015 and we had a strong back half to the year. So we see an influence to the ramp-up in the second half of the year, in part, driven by the growth and the timing of the awards we saw in late 2015. That flows through obviously to the EPS cadence, and the other thing I would add, the exit of business ventures at IDS that I talked, that's planned to be in the second half in Q3, which has an influence on the back half cadence from an EPS point of view as well.
Jason Gursky:
And are you willing to offer a little bit more granularity on the businesses that you're exiting?
Anthony O'Brien:
I think I'd put it this way; we constantly look at our portfolio. We talked on the call here about a couple of things, one which is just moving up some of the businesses from IDS to IIS, because we think its going to drive some more efficiencies, given how those products have matured, they are more of a service-support model. Where in the past, IIS had actually performed a lot of work on it. So we think we will get more efficiencies out of that. I can't get into too much detail right now, beyond what I said, for the exit of the business ventures at IDS, just because of the confidentiality around it. But we certainly can talk more about that, once that is concluded -- as we said here, we expect by the third quarter.
Jason Gursky:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Anthony O'Brien:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Harned from Bernstein. Please proceed.
Doug Harned:
Yes, good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Doug.
Doug Harned:
I am interested in IDS, because if we go back a year ago, when you were looking forward, you were expecting some margin expansion that you would see operating margins up in the 15% range. And it seemed, as the year went on, you looked at new awards coming in, that pushed out in time, that margin expansion. But now, as you look at 2016 and if you make adjustment for the exit from those businesses, it seems like you are still at a lower margin level than one might think and one might have expected. Can you talk about how you look at that IDS trajectory now? I know you mentioned a couple of the new programs, which may put some pressure on margins in the near term. But I am trying to understand, when we can expect to get, kind of the full margin advantage one might expect from a mature set of international programs?
Anthony O'Brien:
Sure Doug. Let me kind of walk through that, and try to give you some more color on that. So as I mentioned and you alluded to, we do have $100 million to $125 million in the 2016 forecast for IDS related to the exit of a business venture. I will note at IDS in any given year, in part because of the nature of their programs and the size of them, we have had favorable profit adjustments, that were significant. Maybe about the half of the size of this, if you look back over time. So this pickup is a bit larger, but it does help to offset, 2016, some of the mix that we have been talking about that you just referred to, with the ramp up of these programs that are in the early stages. Further, as we have talked about at both IDS and across the company, we are investing more, particularly in strategic areas, where we do see significant growth opportunities. We also continue to execute on some lower margin programs at IDS, such as AMDR, the Qatar ADOC, the classified radar program that we won last year, and all this taken together is a key component of our growth story. But in the near term, it is impacting our IDS margins as well. At the end of the day, even with the IDS margin, we have been able to maintain a solid company margin position and deliver top line growth due to the strength of the portfolio, and we continue to be focused on driving down our costs, over head and other costs for the last several years, and as you know, we have seen significant improvements from a number of different initiatives there around facilities, reductions, factory automation, strategic sourcing, expanding our shared services, working on our organization structure when we have collapsed from six to four businesses, and as we have talked about, internationally, we changed our model on how we approach international business, and that is clearly paying off from a growth perspective overall and internationally. As we now are resuming growth, we will continue to drive costs down with an objective to improve and grow earnings through both top line and margin improvement. As far as the cadence of IDS margins going forward, I would think of it this way, as you said, if you were to adjust for the exit of the business venture, I think as we said in the past, we would expect year-over-year and continue to see IDS margins improve incrementally. Again, adjusting for the impact of the business venture, as these larger production programs that run five years, kind of get into the sweet spot into 2017 and 2018, which would drive that improved margin at IDS.
Doug Harned:
So if I have this right, then you are saying that you still expect with these attractive international contracts that you can get up to the margins, the sort of high 16s maybe margins we have seen in the past. But if this has just taken longer than you probably would have expected, six to 12 months ago.
Anthony O'Brien:
So I am not going to give you beyond what we have put out there for 2016, margin expectation for IDS other than directional indication or cadence. But yes, we really haven't changed our thinking around this. You got to keep in mind, as we said; in the case of Patriot, these awards generally run five years, and a couple big ones that I mentioned in the prepared comments, those are -- we are only a year into those, and its usually into plus or minus the third year of those programs which will be starting in 2017, when we normally see the opportunity to retire risk, drive efficiencies. We also had, if you recall, at the end of 2014, a major award for Qatar. Again, that will kind of be hitting the sweet spot when we get into 2017. So I won't put a specific margin bogey out there, but we definitely would see improvement in 2017 and improvement over that in 2018, driven by these large programs.
Doug Harned:
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George Shapiro:
Yes. Toby, the cash flow, even if you add it back to $200 million, came kind of at the low end of your guidance, and then you have a bigger increase in 2016. Was some of that -- something was missing [indiscernible] or you just explained kind of the walk [ph] from the 2015 number of say 2.5, to get to the 2.7 to 3?
Anthony O'Brien:
Yeah so, the way to think of it, George, you're right, we came in towards the low end, when you adjust for the discretionary pension contribution. When I look at the change year-over-year, its primarily driven by a combination of our net pension funding and lower cash taxes. From an operational or program level, we see things kind of in line with the cadence that we saw in 2015.
George Shapiro:
Okay. Then one quick one, what was the organic growth if we looked at Forcepoint and put it in the acquisition, so what would it have been year-over-year?
Anthony O'Brien:
For the company?
George Shapiro:
For Forcepoint? I mean, if we put in the acquisition you made and we put in Websense for last year?
Anthony O'Brien:
So if you'd normalize -- on a normalized basis for the full year, the topline would have been roughly flat, which is what we have been expecting. You are talking 2015, right?
George Shapiro:
I am talking 2015, then I was going to ask the 2016 comparison?
Anthony O'Brien:
Sure. For 2015, for Forcepoint normalized on a full year basis, the revenue growth would have been flat. That would have been, higher sales of the new products, the Trident platform, offset by a decline in the legacy products on the web filtering, which is consistent with what we have been expecting. If you roll it forward to 2016, and exclude the acquisition that Tom talked about for the next-gen firewall, we'd be looking at high single digit growth on a normalized basis.
George Shapiro:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Anthony O'Brien:
Okay, George.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Stallard from Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Rob.
Robert Stallard:
Tom, you mentioned you're getting quite a few questions about the potential impact of the oil price on your defense export sales. I was wondering if you could size the proportion of either your backlog or your sales of going into the Middle East? And whether you have seen any signs from those customers of any changing priorities or deferrals of orders or deliveries or anything in particular? And then secondly, do you think this is the peak as a percentage of exports in your backlog? Thank you.
Tom Kennedy:
That's an excellent question. Number one is, I just did come back from the Middle East visiting our key customers in multiple countries. So my statement in the script was really based on communications that I had directly with the leaders of these countries. And what I am seeing -- at least what I am hearing from these leaders is, their number one priority is to protect the sovereignty of their nation. And then words they use, I have mentioned this before and I heard it again just several weeks ago, is that a strong defense is a strong deterrence. And in fact, during my trip, we uncovered or told about several other opportunities in the region. So if anything, we are seeing a stronger demand than a slowdown, and that's my words were, that we are not seeing an impact relative to the price of oil at this time. I hope that gives you a complete answer, but that's what I am seeing directly from the leaders of these countries.
Robert Stallard:
And just to follow-up on the backlog percentage, do you think this is about as high as you are going to get, at 43%?
Tom Kennedy:
Not based on any opportunities we are seeing out there. There is always opportunity to grow, and its just a matter of bringing those opportunities across the goal line.
Anthony O'Brien:
Hey Rob, so I'd maybe just add a little bit on that, just to put a little context. We expect strong bookings internationally to continue into 2016, roughly 35% plus or minus of the bookings that we -- that the range that we gave you. We expect it would be international. Keep in mind, we are projecting 2% to 4% growth domestically, as a subset of the three to five at the company level. And would expect international sales to be roughly at the same level in 2016 as 2015. So we continue to see, as Tom said, momentum in that area.
Robert Stallard:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo. Please proceed, sir.
Sam Pearlstein:
Good morning.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Sam.
Sam Pearlstein:
I was wondering if you could talk just philosophically about the decision you made to pull the amortization of intangibles or deferred revenue out of the segment? I am just wondering, when it comes to acquisition opportunities, doesn't that make the segments willing to pay a little higher price than they would have otherwise? How do you make sure that, now you have got the pricing right and the hurdle rates?
Anthony O'Brien:
I will give you the answer, my view here in two parts, right. First of all, why we did it; if you recall back, April-May of last year, when we announced the Websense deal for that acquisition, we started with that convention, but only limited to that acquisition. And at the time, we contemplated doing it completely across the portfolio, but we didn't want to mess with the pure nature of the numbers around Websense. So we purposely deferred that to the end of the year, to have kind of a clean break going into 2016, and it obviously puts both of those elements on the same basis consistently across the company. So that's part one, why we did it. As far as the second part of your question, are we concerned about the businesses running or willing to pay more, even if that were to be the case, we have got a pretty disciplined process here at the company. We have got a core team and an acquisition review team, that all acquisitions have to go through. I am on that, Tom's on that, as you would imagine, a few others, and through that, we spend a lot of time around valuation, looking at it two three different ways. And I won't get into any stats, but I would tell you, there are plenty of deals in the past that we lost, because we wouldn't get higher. We lost on price, for a lack of a better way to say it. So I think we got the right controls and process in place within the company, to make sure that we continue to only bid and pay what is a fair value for any property.
Tom Kennedy:
And just to follow-up, the decisions on acquisitions are done at the corporate level, not at the business level.
Sam Pearlstein:
Okay. Thanks. And if I could just follow-up Toby, if I just look at the first quarter, you have got the most working days, but clearly the lowest earnings. And I know you mentioned one of it was from the exit of those businesses later in the year. But how is it that earnings are so low that early in the year?
Anthony O'Brien:
So you're right. There are more days, calendar days in Q1. That said, we still show growth in Q1 on a year-over-year basis. I think as you know, in any given quarter, some of our revenue depends upon, not just the number of days, but the timing of material, which is a significant portion of our cost base. We are guiding to 3% to 4% growth over last year's first quarter, and that puts our 2015 sales per day, roughly in line for the quarter. So we don't see anything abnormal about it, and part of it again, I think back to Jason's comment around the cadence, with the strong bookings we saw in the second half of the year, especially domestically, we'd see more of a ramp on that towards the back half of the year on our programs.
Sam Pearlstein:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Howard Rubel from Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much. I want to talk maybe philosophically for a second also. I think I heard you or Tom say that you are willing to make some strategic investments in programs. And if I look at one of your competitors that has reported, they acknowledge taking a charge in LR/DR, and I also am aware that you have been challenged a little bit in a classified program at IIS. So could you talk a little bit about, what you are doing in terms of balancing growth opportunities, versus making sure you build a -- call it a wall of strategic advantage in your businesses, Tom?
Tom Kennedy:
So I think, number one is, we do invest inside the company relative to ensuring that we have the right discriminators and differentiators to compete across all our businesses, and not only just to compete, but obviously to win. So those investments come through the avenue of IRAD, some capital investments, also people bringing on the right talent, so that we can go and win those major competitions, because they are the future franchises for the company. And that has been our overall strategy over the years. We look at programs that are going to have runs for decades. You know, what's the next Patriot, one of the examples is Air and Missile Defense Radar, that's going to be our next major franchise coming to fruition here in the next several years, next generation jammer win, the [indiscernible] win, these are all franchise programs, and we made sure over the years, that we have been investing in the right IRAD and the right capital to support those projects, and then also in having the right talent onboard. And that's just something that we do as part of the company moving forward. And the good news is, we are seeing the results of those investments. And again, the results for these franchises that we won over the last couple of years, and that we intend to continue to win, as we move forward, and we see a lot of opportunity here in 2016, 2017 to 2018 already in terms of new franchise opportunities. And so Howard, I think the bottom line is, we are making the right investments and we are seeing the right results relative to these new franchises.
Howard Rubel:
Maybe just to follow-up, I want to make sure that you are not seeing the business becoming so competitive or changed the costs to -- I will call it to sustain your growth or to improve your position is becoming more costly, or more risky?
Tom Kennedy:
I am not seeing it any different in the past. What I am seeing, which is nice, is I am seeing more opportunities in the last couple of years, than I saw in the prior years. So the bottom line is, there is a lot of opportunities out there, and we -- I would say, had a pretty good crystal ball, in making sure we made the right investments to be prepared to win those opportunities.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you, Tom.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter Keay:
Hi. Thanks for the time. I appreciate it.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Hunter.
Hunter Keay:
Good morning. Maybe a little bit of a follow-up sort of contextually to Howard's question. But we saw the German [indiscernible] obviously over Patriot last year, and it sort of baked the question about your expectations for patriot over the next few years? And I was wondering if you could talk about that, maybe in the context of how much you have invested into things like facilities and R&D and headcount, in anticipation of Patriot win? And would it require you to maybe get a little more aggressive on price, in the event that you sort of need the volume to cover some of those investments that you have made, in anticipation of the awards, on Patriot specifically?
Tom Kennedy:
Well, I think on Patriot, I think the investments have come through contracts, and then the other capital investments that we have made, the normal investments we make to, essentially being able to operate our factory in a lean and efficient manner. So that's -- I'll put that in context, and let me put together, the opportunities for Patriot in context. There was just a recent announcement by the new Minister of Defense, Macierewicz in Poland, relative to his support of pursuing the Patriot program with the U.S. government. In fact he even kind of did a joint announcement with the U.S. Ambassador to Poland on that subject, with an objective to be able to get something going here this year. So that's a really good news for us, that's a very large potential program for Poland there. And just as I mentioned earlier, I just returned from the Middle East and there is strong demand for additional Patriot assets there. I mentioned in my script, a number of -- over 10 intercepts by Patriot against ballistic region, just in that region of the Middle East. So there is a strong demand across Eastern Europe and also the Middle East for additional Patriot assets, but also for upgrade. For example, there is -- just in the upgrade area alone, there is an opportunity to upgrade 72 fire units, just to configuration of 3+. So there is upgrade potentials, and then there is also the new potentials for countries like Poland, and adding additional fire units to other countries in the Middle East region. And I am sure you are reading the newspapers, the information that I am getting, especially of all the Asia-Pacific activities that are going on. In fact today, there was an article relative to Fed in Korea, where we also have just gotten an award on Patriot there too. So the bottom line is, there seems to be a significant demand out there across multiple areas, Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East for Missile Defense, and Patriot is the System that's proven, and is the system of choice for these nations. That's where it stands.
Hunter Keay:
And maybe Tom if you could, since you mentioned, can you maybe help us size the market opportunity for some of the retrofit work, maybe for 360 degree radar. Any context you can give us to sort of help think about it?
Tom Kennedy:
Well you just [indiscernible] what I didn't mention, so that's part of the upgrade activities also. But there is definitely over $5 billion just on upgrades to configuration of 3 plus. There is opportunities on the radars that are -- its in the billions of dollars there, in terms of adding these 360 radars. By the way, that was one of the requests that I had in several of my meetings with key leaders in the Middle East. It was a desire to have our new lease, a 360 system added to their configurations. So I think that's getting out there. That capability is available, and we are hearing -- getting demand signals from customers on that. So the bottom line is, is Patriot is a franchise. We continue to evolve it, we continue to upgrade it and increase it's capabilities, add new technologies, and its -- we are seeing increased demand across those three major areas of the world. Again Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, and also the Middle East.
Hunter Keay:
Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. Thank you very much. So Tom, I think you guys said you expect international to be 35% of bookings in 2016. That suggests that really if you do 25.5, you do about $9 billion up from what looks like 8.7. You have the Qatar award, but other than that, you don't seem to have as many identified large individual awards, as you did in 2015. Could you give us some more color of what would be driving that number that high?
Tom Kennedy:
Well, you mentioned one of them, which was the Qatar EWR. We also have international Patriot greater than $1 billion worth of bookings that are in play. We have other activities in Qatar which we are pursuing, and we believe are accessible this year. There is a whole FMS in the area of AEGIS, supporting Aegis Ashore, and also upgrades on some ships in the international marketplace. For those who don't know, we do the Aegis radar and all the components and the subsystems for that radar. That alone is, for example, over $300 million. And then in the whole area of missiles, both air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles, a significant demand of greater than $3 billion, across multiple missiles, so there are multiple contracts. There is no one contract and missiles that's going to do it, but that's our portfolio. We have a very diverse portfolio that allows us to add these systems. International ISRO is over $700 million; and then we have our normal airborne radars and ISR, EO/IR systems, that's probably pretty close to $1 billion. So I think what's different this year than others is, we are seeing demand signals across our whole portfolio on the international side, and you'd say, why is that? While we mentioned before, that we are changing our strategy. About two years ago, we went from a regional strategy, to a country strategy and into that country strategy, we focused not on the one or two customers we have had in the past 30 years, but we expanded that, and now we are seeing that. But these other customers are buying that in the order of $500 million to $1 billion programs, not just $2 billion program. So bottom line is, our portfolio which is diverse, is now the first in international marketplace, and that's -- these opportunities are coming across multiple of our products.
Cai von Rumohr:
So Tom, you have said that it takes three years to hit the margin sweet spot on five year Patriot contracts. The turn time, I would assume is going to be shorter missile programs, and some of these other programs. So should we start to see this later in 2016, in your margins or 2017? The non-Patriot programs?
Anthony O'Brien:
Cai, it's Toby. I will jump in on this one. I think you'd really want to think about that out in 2017, and the other thing to keep in mind, with our international missile programs, they are essentially FMS and not direct commercial sales. So while they -- relatively speaking, have some incremental margin compared to our domestic business, it is different than if it were a DCS type of sale.
Cai von Rumohr:
Terrific. Thank you very much.
Tom Kennedy:
Sure.
Anthony O'Brien:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Sterne Agee. Please proceed.
Peter Arment:
Yes. Good morning Tom and Toby.
Tom Kennedy:
Good morning Peter.
Peter Arment:
Tom, I guess I have a question, kind of an up tempo. Its good to see your return to growth domestically in 2016, but we are also seeing a step-up in the op tempo in the Middle East, and Raytheon's position is good as any, in terms of a lot of the air-to-surface missiles, and the ground support missiles that are being utilized. I mean, how does that impact Raytheon in terms of a bookings perspective? Do you see, is it a big long lag effect, or do you actually start to have those conversations?
Tom Kennedy:
No. We just went through that, and the bottom line is, we expect a range next year, an increase in our international bookings. Its going to be $8.5 billion to $9 billion range next year, which is up from 2015. So we are seeing that increased demand, and its coming, again, across our whole portfolio, not just Patriot.
Peter Arment:
I guess, I was referring to the domestic activity, in terms of the Army and Air Force, spending a lot of, what is the activity in ISIS, etcetera?
Tom Kennedy:
You will start to see. That's part of the range growth we talked about on the domestic, 2% to 4%. Which is interesting, we mentioned, as we haven't grown domestically since 2009. In 2016, we will see 2% to 4% growth, and that's significant for us, and its coming because of the op tempo internationally, but also in the pent-up demand that the department has in refreshing a lot of their systems. Including, some new starts in the area of radars and other systems.
Peter Arment:
Okay. Thank you for the clarity on that. Thanks.
Anthony O'Brien:
And Peter, I think the way you can see that translate through, if you look at the -- our missiles business, right, they had pretty good growth in 2015, as we started to see the effect of that, and even better growth that we are guiding to for 2016. So that's the start of the flowthrough, from a revenue point of view, of what Tom just talked about from a demand perspective.
Tom Kennedy:
Bottom line, growing internationally, we are growing domestically. And that's pretty good.
Peter Arment:
Good to hear.
Todd Ernst:
Okay. I think we are going to have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter conference call in April. Mark?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President
Analysts:
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc. Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Rob Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Mark, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right, thank you, Mark. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of the website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby, and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning everyone. A little over a year ago, we laid out a strategy to return the company to growth by evolving our approach to international markets and increasing investments in key technologies to better position the company for the future. Our strong growth during the third quarter reflects the traction that we are gaining from this strategy. In the quarter, our revenue increased by 6% driven primarily by missiles and IDS, as well as from an increased contribution from Raytheon|Websense. International revenue, which grew by 13% over last year's third quarter, rose to 32% of the company's total revenue. This is a record level for the company and was driven by customers across various regions turning to Raytheon's advanced technology to address the rapidly-evolving threats. I would also note that our growth was backed by strong cash flow generation reinforcing our strong financial foundation. Domestic revenue also increased in the quarter and was up a solid 3% driven in part by classified. Turning now to bookings. In the third quarter, international drove 26% of our total bookings. Key international awards included the second phase of the Air Defense Operations Center for Qatar, plus missiles, training and radars for a number of other international customers. Domestically, bookings included training, classified, as well as various missile programs including AIM-9X, the Joint Standoff Weapon, and SM-3. Given our year-to-date bookings strength and our expectation for a strong finish to the year, we are now raising our full-year 2015 bookings outlook to $25.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which translates into a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.1 for the year. This is $1 billion increase to the prior bookings range that we gave you last quarter, driven by strong demand from our global customers. Further, it sets the stage for solid top line growth in 2016 which Toby will talk about in a moment. In the quarter, IIS received good news on two key awards, one from the U.S. Air Force, and the other from the Department of Homeland Security. For the U.S. Air Force contract, which is often referred to as NISSC, Raytheon will be providing products and sustainment services that support NORAD and its mission to provide air, missile and space threat warnings, as well as critical command and control capabilities. NISSC has a $700 million ceiling value over five years. This competitive win was initially awarded to Raytheon in April of this year, but was protested. The protest was resolved in our favor late in the third quarter. I would add that this award follows a series of recent programs wins at IIS for high value-added services. These wins reflect our modernization through sustainment strategy. As for the Department of Homeland Security award, Raytheon was selected to be the prime contractor for the development and sustainment of the National Cyber Security Protection System, a system providing the vital infrastructure that assists more than 100 federal, civilian and government agencies with the protection of their networks against advanced cyber threats. This award has a ceiling value in excess of $1 billion over a seven year period. While this too has been protested, the customer recognized our compelling cyber strength when making the award, another strong validation of our cyber strategy and capabilities. In addition, we have been supporting our long term growth strategy by increasing investments in our business and advanced technologies. Consistent with our discussions on prior calls, IR&D is being directed to areas that we believe will be future growth markets, including directed energy and hypersonics and undersea to name just a few. Investments in these technologies will position us well for the future, as our customers look for capabilities to counter increasingly sophisticated threats that are developing on the horizon. I'd like to shift gears and take a minute to touch on our capital deployment strategy. We continue forward with a balanced approach and we are on track to achieve our $1 billion share buyback target for 2015 that we outlined back in July. After the close of the quarter, we did announce a small acquisition that fills a cyber security technology gap and enhances our position in high value managed security services, one of the fastest growing areas in the cyber security market. This is consistent with our go-forward strategy of pursuing smaller targeted bolt-on acquisitions. Before concluding, I would like to note that the Websense integration is on track. As you will recall, we are currently in the process of combining our legacy Raytheon Cyber Products business with the Websense acquisition that we completed in May. The business segment had solid margin performance in the quarter and we continue to work to integrate Raytheon Cyber Products technology into the Websense architecture. To close, I want to say how proud I am of the Raytheon team and their hard work and dedication that has allowed us to deliver growth despite sequestration and I want to thank them for their focus on performance which benefits our customers, our company and our shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks starting with the third quarter highlights and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would please turn to page three. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the third quarter with sales, EPS and operating cash flow all at or better than our expectations. We had solid bookings in the third quarter of $5.3 billion. Sales were $5.8 billion in the quarter, up 6% led by our IDS, missiles and Raytheon|Websense businesses. EPS from continuing operations was $1.47, which I'll give a little more color on in a few minutes. And operating cash flow of $1.1 billion was better than our prior guidance driven by the timing of collections. Third quarter 2015 operating cash flow was significantly higher than last year's third quarter primarily due to the improvement in working capital and the timing of cash taxes paid in the quarter. During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.4 million shares of common stock for $250 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 7 million shares for $750 million. Turning now to page four. Let me start by providing some detail on our third quarter results. Company bookings for the third quarter were $5.3 billion. On a year-to-date basis, bookings were $17.4 billion, an increase of approximately $425 million over the same period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing four-quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.06, and as Tom just mentioned, given the strength of our overall bookings year-to-date, we now expect full year 2015 bookings to be approximately $25.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, an increase of over $1 billion from the outlook on the last call in July. This provide a solid foundation for sales growth in 2016. For the quarter, international was 26% of our total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 37%. For the year, we expect international to be approximately 35% of total bookings. Backlog at the end of the third quarter was $33.6 billion compared to $33.2 billion at the end of the third quarter of last year. And on a funded basis, backlog was $24.4 billion, an increase of almost $1.5 billion compared to last year's third quarter. We expect 2015 year-end total backlog to be up between 4% and 8% from year-end 2014. If you now move to page five. Sales in the third quarter of 2015 were strong primarily due to the performance at IDS and missiles. Looking now at sales by business, IDS had third quarter 2015 net sales of $1.5 billion, an increase of approximately 7% compared to the third quarter of 2014. This increase was primarily due to two recent international Patriot awards. Missiles had net sales of $1.6 billion in the third quarter 2015, an increase of approximately 11%. This increase was driven by higher sales spread across various production programs including the TOW missile program and certain missile defense programs. In the third quarter 2015, IIS had net sales of $1.4 billion, down slightly when compared with the same quarter last year. SAS had net sales of $1.4 billion. The change versus last year was driven by volume on international tactical radar programs. And for Raytheon|Websense, the increase was primarily due to the acquisition of Websense, which we completed in the second quarter of 2015. As a reminder, third quarter 2014 included the results for only Raytheon Cyber Products. Moving ahead to page six, overall the company continues perform well. Our operating margin was 12.1% for the total company and 12.3% on a business segment basis. Year-to-date operating margin was 12.9% at both the total company and business segment level. As we discussed on the last few earnings calls. Compared to 2014, our margins for 2015 have been impacted by a change in program mix as well as higher investments. We continue to invest in ourselves with the objective of positioning the company for future growth. So, looking now at the business margins. The change in margins at IDS was primarily driven by a change in program mix on international Patriot programs nearing completion, which is similar to what we've experienced in the past when we've completed certain programs and ramped up on others. We expect IDS margins to be strong in the fourth quarter driven by strong performance as well as from an expected contractual modification. The change in margins at IIS was primarily driven by a change in program mix and acquisition related cost. Missiles margins increased 40 basis points in the third quarter 2015, primarily due to a change in program mix. SAS margins were down in the quarter as expected, compared with the same period last year primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies in the third quarter of 2014. And at Raytheon|Websense, the third quarter 2015 operating margin was driven by strong operating performance as well as the timing of restructuring expenses in the quarter. We expect restructuring cost to increase in the fourth quarter, reducing margins sequentially but still on track to meet the full year 2015 margin outlook. Turning now to page seven, third quarter 2015 EPS was $1.47, better than expected driven by improved margin primarily at missiles and SAS. As you look at the EPS walk, operations is being impacted by the investments we are making in the business and program mix. These are largely offset by our reduced share count. The timing of tax related items and non-cash expenses related to the Raytheon|Websense acquisition make up the difference. On page eight, we've tightened the full range for full year 2015 net sales, increasing the high end by $100 million. We now expect net sales to be between $23 billion and $23.3 billion. As we have done in prior years, during the third quarter, we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update, the FAS/CAS adjustment for the year decreased by $12 million from $197 million to $185 million, or an unfavorable impact of $0.03 per share. We're reaffirming our full year 2015 EPS outlook of $6.47 to $6.62. While this outlook is unchanged from our prior guidance, I would note that we were able to absorb the impact of the unfavorable $0.03 FAS/CAS adjustment. And as a reminder, we have not included in our 2015 guidance the potential extension of the R&D tax credit. If the legislation passes, it would favorably impact the effective tax rate by about 130 basis points and our EPS by about $0.11 per share. As I mentioned earlier, we repurchased 2.4 million shares of common stock for $250 million in the quarter and now see our diluted share count to be approximately 305 million shares for 2015. Operating cash flow in the third quarter was strong primarily due to the timing of collections. We continue to see our full year 2015 operating cash flow outlook coming in between $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion. And as you can see on page nine, we've included guidance by business. We've increased and tightened the full year sales outlook at both IDS and missiles. At IDS, this is driven by the program mix and performance to date that I discussed earlier. Missiles has also experienced better than expected year to date growth. In addition, we tightened the full year sales range for IIS and SAS. Now turning to margins. We've increased the range and expect higher full year operating margin performance for missiles and SAS. The strong year to date results exceeded our prior estimates. We lowered the range of our full year operating margin guidance for IDS driven by the change in program mix and performance to date. Now turning to next year. As we have done in the past, we intend to provide detailed 2016 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call in January. However, as we sit here today, we currently see strong sales growth for 2016 at 3% to 4% over the midpoint of our 2015 outlook driven in part by some new development awards we are expecting. We expect segment margins to be flat to up for 2016 compared to 2015 excluding the eBorders settlement in 2015, and depending upon the mix from higher volume in 2016. This positions us well going forward with further margin expansion over time as new development wins lead to production. I would also add that we currently expect FAS/CAS to improve in 2016 over 2015, which I'll talk about in a moment. In addition, we expect operating cash flow from continuing operations to be higher in 2016 versus 2015 after adjusting for the eBorder settlement. Of course, I want to caveat all this by saying our assumptions are based on a defense budget being approved in Washington before year end, thereby avoiding an extended CR or a government shutdown. So if you could please move to page 10. We have provided a FAS/CAS pension adjustment matrix for 2016 as we've done in prior years. As I just mentioned, we expect to see improvement to the FAS/CAS adjustment in 2016 compared to 2015 given the current interest rate environment and asset returns. That said, and just to be clear, the discount rate and the actual asset returns won't be known until we close out 2015. We'll provide a more detailed pension outlook on our January year-end call. Before concluding, as we have discussed on past earnings calls with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet at our current credit rating going forward. We remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth plans, as well as returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, making smaller, targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs, and from time to time making discretionary contributions to our pension plans. And as a reminder, as we said on the second quarter earnings call in July, we increased our share buyback by $250 million from our original expectation, bringing the full year 2015 buyback to approximately $1 billion. In summary, we saw solid performance in the third quarter. Bookings were strong, our sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations were all at or above our expectations. And our strong cash flow and balance sheet will allow us to continue to drive value for our customers and our shareholders. We are well positioned for continued growth in 2016. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Carter Copeland from Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, Tom, Toby.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Carter.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I wondered if we might just kind of get a little bit more color on IDS. Obviously, it seems like the top line is quite strong. That has implications for the mix I think relative to your commentary about 2016 that you've sort of been hinting at recently. Should we think that you've got a little bit more top line with a little bit less favorable mix next year than what you were talking about before or is this sort of in line with where you were before?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Well look, Carter, let me talk about this year for a little minute because I think it's kind of a precursor heading into 2016. So for IDS, as I mentioned, we still expect margins in Q4 to be strong. We did however adjust our guidance. It does reflect, as you just suggested, an update in mix and our performance to date. Specifically, we are seeing more development work on programs like AMDR, and we have had some increase in our content on AWD. Combine that with the fact that we're still ramping up on some of our other large recent awards, which we've talked about in the past. They start out at lower margins. They expand their margins over time as they progress to this cycle and retire risk. So we're still seeing that mix issue impact us as we go through the balance of this year, okay. But that bodes well for the future, as those development programs move into production. And that thought is contemplated in the initial outlook that we gave you for 2016.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, so there's no material change in the performance expectation of the EACs, it's more just the mix of the work you're saying.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
That is correct.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say it's development program driven growth that exceeded our expectations at IDS this year. And what that does lead us into opportunities in 2016, 2017 and 2018 as we transition those programs into production, on top of all of the Patriot production work that we are starting up on now, for example, Qatar program. So we have a very positive outlook for IDS. Just a reminder, both Toby and myself ran that business so we know all the levers in driving margin in the business. And we see clear signs and opportunities based on the mix that they have today moving into 2016 and 2017 and 2018.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. And then a quick follow up. I don't know if you can tell from a pro forma basis on the Raytheon|Websense top line, what it would have been like had you owned it or maybe break out what Raytheon Cyber Products maybe did in growth terms year over year? Do you have any color in that?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Well, the growth that we show obviously because we only had Cyber Products in last year's third quarter, is essentially all from the acquisition of Websense. And the way to think about it, it would have, to answer your question, it would have been flat year over year.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks for the color, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much and good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I wanted to ask – morning – to ask about missiles and this was sort of the second quarter in a row that you've increased the sales guidance there. And you were up I guess about 5% or 6% from where you were at the start of the year. And talk about really what's driving that. How much of it is coming from the Middle East? Kind of how sustainable that is and put some ties around that.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, I'll start and then obviously Tom can jump in here if he wants to add some color. So to your point, missile sales were up in the third quarter from prior year, double digits around 11%, and that's sequential growth as well. We do expect the missiles sales cadence to continue to improve into Q4, really driven by volume from our production programs. And it's really not one individual program as I mentioned in my opening comments. It's across multiple production programs, TOW, and some of the standard missile family of programs as well. For the total year, we see sales growth in the mid single digits. Obviously as you said, we have updated our guidance to reflect the favorable performance year to date in our outlook for Q4. But there's not one individual program and/or country if you will that's driving that. It's just a very strong portfolio of programs that's pushing the growth up in the missiles business.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Can I just jump on that? I mean, you did see there was a successful SM-3 launch this past week with our European coalition partners. And so we see a significant demand signal pull for missile defense missiles relative to our European partners outside of the US itself. And then if you go across the regions, you do know that there's significant turmoil in the Eastern Europe area, so we see demand signals there, obviously in the Middle East. But we're also starting to see demand signals in the Asia-Pacific region. We saw it initially in South Korea with Patriot orders, but we were also seeing it in the areas relative to replenishing the weapons that they have. So it's not just in one region, it's essentially across the globe that we're seeing these demand signal pulls.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. And I just -
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And I think, just Seth, another thing that reinforces that, the bookings for the quarter, AIM-9X, Paveway, JSOW, spares, et cetera, right, SM-3. It's again, it's across that portfolio that we have in our missiles business.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great, okay thanks. Just as a real quick follow-up on a totally different topic, we heard a little earlier in the week about some delays from the government in executing undefinitized contract actions. Just wondering if you've seen anything similar.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I mean, these are – are you talking about UCAs?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
UCAs, yeah.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, yeah and if those are having any impact on your platform.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I'll tell you, it is an area that we track in the business. It is something that is necessary especially relative to FMS contracts to shorten the period of getting on contract and starting to work the programs. We do track and try to drive the definitization of those UCAs as soon as possible. I mean, that's something we work with directly with the Department of Defense. And I can tell you I have my, I review those on a periodic basis to make sure that they're not getting out of control. I can tell you, the department wants to definitize them as soon as possible also, but it is a lot of work. And we just got to make sure that we work hand and glove together with the government to drive those to closure as soon as possible.
Seth M. Seifman - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great, thanks. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Yes. Thank you very much and good quarter, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Cai.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So your guidance on international of 35% orders kind of works out, looks like it's $2.6 billion in orders in the fourth quarter. That looks like a pretty big number. Could you give us some color on what's in there, any particular single large awards?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah. So, I'll give you at a high level, Cai. Unlike prior years, we don't have any binary $1 billion-plus type of awards whether it be international or domestic in the fourth quarter. So there is not one particular program or award that's driving it. We do have several programs in the $500 million range, plus or minus. And Tom, I don t know if you want to comment any more detail on.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean there's several Patriot related awards. We're also looking at the several C5I awards also. And this is not international, but the domestic air, some air traffic work. And then we already mentioned the missile company in terms of their portfolio of missiles being in demand on the international marketplace. I do want to mention something, go back to something that Toby said about the binaries. And in the past, we've always had one of these big $1 billion or multi-billion dollar binaries we were waiting on. One of the elements of our international strategy was to not just have one but to have three or four binaries, so that we were never relying on any given one. And that's actually the position, the great position we're in today. We don't just have one order we're waiting for to be able to achieve several billion dollars worth of international bookings. And it's kind of a different – it's a totally different feel here. It's a great feel, by the way, that we don't have to hang our hat on one big binary in any quarter. But the bottom line is the international strategy we put in place is paying off relative to that.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Terrific. Your R&D was up 100 basis points as a percent of sales. Maybe give us some color what you're spending on, where it should be for the year, and how much of that is recoverable under IR&D?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, it's all IR&D, so it's all recoverable depending on whether it's a cost plus contract in our rates or a firm fixed-price contract. So that's the answer to your first one. The areas that we've been concentrating on and we've been talking about this on the calls is high energy lasers. It's been a big area for us. We do see that as a new up and coming area. There's a lot of demand signal from multiple services. Also, the other big area is hypersonics. As the threat gets more and more sophisticated, it requires more, I would call it speed and agility to be able to get to the threat and hypersonics are becoming a big part of that. So we are investing in that. We've had some great successes in terms of wins on some advanced technology contracts with DARPA in the hypersonics area over the last four months. And then also, we're really engaging in the undersea area and really looking as that starts to expand and becoming an area of interest, especially relative to anti-access/area denial. We continue to invest in advanced EW, again driven by the need for a systems to counter the evolving threat. And we also see a demand, especially across the Middle East region for our C5ISR solutions. So we're continuing to invest in that product line.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And Cai, I think your question about recoverability, think of it this way. About a quarter of that increase, at least in dollars, so about $15 million of that relates to Websense. So that obviously on the commercial side, not recoverable on US government contracts. But the balance of the increase is recoverable on our contracts.
Cai von Rumohr - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Doug Harned from Bernstein. Please proceed.
Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Doug.
Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
I wanted to go back to Carter's question on IDS, because I just wanted to make sure we understand what happened sort of Q3 to Q4. Is the change, the fact that the margins are lower in Q3, and you expect them to then increase in Q4, does that have to do more with timing on specific programs, particularly international ones or is it more increased spending in the quarter for things like AMDR? What changed from what you thought was going to happen a quarter ago?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
From Q3 to Q4, Doug?
Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Well, no. In Q2, when you laid out your guidance, clearly, you had thought you would have higher margins earlier, and that's been pushed out. What changed there?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so I think that a couple of things that – and I'll try not to be repetitive to Carter's question here. So the mix is changing, right, so we're seeing higher volume. But because of the higher levels of development work and some increases on AWD that are at lower margins, we're seeing that which is new compared to what we had expected before. The other thing too, we, as I mentioned in my comments, we do expect, which is not atypical, to have a contract modification that will result in income that we recognize in the fourth quarter, and the magnitude of that is a little less than what we had previously expected. So from a Q4 point of view and therefore a total year perspective, that those are the two major things that are driving the change.
Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you. And then when you look at international, it's a lot of focus on things that the binaries, as you were referring to them, and those often are Patriot systems, things like that. If you look beyond it, I'm trying to get a sense of what other areas, such as early warning radars, potential Hawk replacements, when you look at some of the other systems out there that may be in pretty good demand, can you characterize how important those are relative to some of these big systems that make the big headlines?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I would say for example, the TPY-2 radar that's part of THAAD, but it's also now being looked at as essentially an early warning radar. It's kind of standing on its own and we're getting – there's been a lot of interest on that system within THAAD obviously, but also outside of THAAD. So that's, I would call that, that's been a development that's been occurring here over the last couple of years. So we see that in the future as a major international system that we provide. Obviously, we have the Patriot System itself. We have a big award in 2016. It's the Qatar early warning radar. So it's on the order of $1 billion potential for that system. That's getting ready to go through congressional notification. And earlier had a congressional notification but the customer wanted to increase the size of the radar, so we have to go back. And that looks like that'll complete this year with CN and with an award in 2016. We also, we talked quite a bit about a lot of our missile products which are big. And you are correct, we are getting traction in integrated air and missile defense, especially relative to our NASAM system. That's starting to get traction especially as a replacement to the Hawk System. So outside of Patriot, we see multiple other areas that are allowing us to essentially get out of this pure Patriot binary that we're waiting on.
Doug Stuart Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jason Gursky from Citi. Please proceed.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey good morning. Hey, Toby, a couple of quick clarification questions for you. Can you give us a sense of how much that contract mod might we worth so that we can get a truer sense of what sustainable margins are in the fourth quarter?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so as far as the amount, we're still in negotiations and working through this with our customer. So unfortunately, Jason, I won't give you specifics. But what I can tell you to maybe try to help you size it, if you remember, we did have a similar type of item at IDS in last year's fourth quarter. But I would tell you that was of higher value or higher magnitude than the one we're looking at here. Our run rate for the quarter, even if you exclude this item, I would tell you our run rate for the quarter would still be better than our year to date performance. So even without that item, the Q4 margin would be better than year to date.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Another clarification question, the flat to up margins that you suggested for next year, ex the eBorder settlement, is that at the segment level or total company-wide operating margins?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
That's a fair question. That's at the segment level.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay great. And then lastly from me, your bookings that you're expecting for this year, does the resolution of the continuing resolution have any impact on that outcome?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
No, Jason. We feel good about the outlook for this year regardless of what happens with the shutdown.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So on our domestic, none of them are new starts, and there's also a significant amount of international which is obviously independent of the CR.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay great. Thank you, gentlemen.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And hey, Jason, just a little bit of a follow up to your question about the margin rate for next year, as I said, it is at the segment level. And as a reminder, obviously we'll update it in January, but we do expect our FAS/CAS to be improved next year from this year as well, if you're thinking about it from a total company point of view.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Right, and then at that segment level guidance then, are you willing at this point to give us a first look at whether any of those segments will be up more than others? Are there any big movements in any of the segments? Are you saying that total segments are going to be flat to up? Is there any movement up or down that we should be aware of?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, no I mean our goal today was to give everyone a high look at where we are headed for next year. We're in the middle of our process for locking down 2016. So we're not going to go any deeper than we did, but certainly in January, we'll give you all the details and the color around each of the businesses.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Fair enough. Thank you very much, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning, Sam. How are you doing?
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. How are you?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We're doing great.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
When you're growing, it feels good.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Can you ask you a question? I know you have thousands of programs, but to just ask about a couple. Any update in terms of 3DELRR, in terms of the protest, when that might get re-awarded? And then any comments in terms of the long range discrimination radar and what happened with that one.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let me hit the 3DELRR first. For those who don't know, we essentially were awarded the 3DELRR. There was a protest. And through the protest process, the U.S. Air Force has decided to essentially recompete the 3DELRR. So that's right now in a competition. At the same time, we are in an appeal process to see if we can undo that and have the award sustained. So that's where we're at on that. I can't really say much more about that one. You are correct on the long range discrimination radar. There was an announcement last night that didn't go in our favor. We are obviously disappointed in that. We feel we had a good solution for the Missile Defense Agency. And we are awaiting our debrief because we really don't have any more information than essentially you have based on the release out of the DoD.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And so if I can follow up, if I look at that grid on page 10, can you kind of talk about where you would be right now if we ended the year? And then secondly, have you given any thought or would you consider voluntary contributions this year to help move that a little bit as well?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so our return year to date is around 1%, okay, on our assets to the first part of your question. I'll just add a little bit more color there. And if we were even to remain flat for the remainder of the year, as I mentioned earlier when, to Jason's question, we would still see our FAS/CAS income for 2016 to be better than 2015, as I mentioned earlier. As far as the discretionary contribution, that is an element of our balanced capital deployment. We will look from time to time to make that. Right now, we don't have a plan to do that, but it's certainly something depending upon how things shape up over the next couple of months that we'll be evaluating, and certainly we'll obviously let everyone know if we choose to do something there.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please proceed.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Yes. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, George.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
At the Analyst Meeting in September, you'd commented that the big increases in margins on these international contracts usually occur three or four years out. Now there's a change in the guidance this quarter. Any change changed that at all or are we still probably look for maybe some margin improvement next year, but the bigger increase is in 2017 and 2018?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, George, it's Toby. I mean what we said for next year, early look right, was flat to slightly up on margins. But related to those major production programs, it would really be 2017 and 2018 when we'd be in the sweet spot from driving the productivity and the efficiencies on those programs.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
And then, Toby, just one further clarification. The segment margin, it's probably pretty trivial. But does that include Websense or does that just relating to the defense pieces?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
No, it includes Websense, but it does not include the amortization of the intangibles or the deferred revenue. So it includes their operating results, if you will.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Okay, and those margins should get better next year, I mean even though you commented the fourth quarter will be much weaker than the 17.5% you just reported.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, we would see on an operating basis excluding the accounting in acquisition related adjustments, we would see margins next year in the high teens, okay. And what's happening here, this year, Q2 had low margins for Websense because of the restructuring related activities. And it's just a timing issue. We didn't have much going on relative to how those costs we incurred in Q3. We expect them to pick back up, if you will, as we work towards completing the integration activities, which is going to drive the margins down in Q4. But again, all within the outlook we've given for the year for Websense.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
And then last quick one. You mentioned I thought in an earlier question that Websense on a pro forma basis was relatively flat with last year. So what starts the growth next year that you've been looking for?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so what's happening at Websense, we're seeing growth in their TRITON platform and their TRITON product and related services in around the 10% range. And as we've talked about before, they have a legacy web filtering business that has been declining. It continues to decline and the two of those are kind of a push that get us to that flat. So what would drive the growth in the future is both the combination of the expansion of TRITON but also the integration of the Raytheon Cyber Products into the TRITON platform and the synergies of cross-selling across both customer sets that Websense bring to the table and RCP bring to the table.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, George.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Spingarn from Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Robert.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So, Tom, just going back to IDS and thinking about the 3% to 4% top line growth in the context of all the business you've won, and moving past the fourth quarter dynamics which sounds at least on the margin side somewhat one time, how do we think about the ramp at IDS with all this new business particularly in international Patriot over the next couple of years? And how significant a part of the 3% to 4% is that next year? Meaning is that primarily driven by IDS or you're getting some help from missile systems there as well?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well on IDS, let's talk about IDS first. So the new awards, especially the big Patriot awards are normally about a five-year period to essentially get through those programs. So on these new ones, for example Qatar, we're just in the first inning, essentially the first year of that contract. So we're in the, I would call it the ramping up element. And Toby addressed this on a prior question here. So we see the sweet spots, especially relative to the Patriot orders occurring in the 2017 and 2018 timeframe relative to the margin expansion as we ramp up.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So does that mean, Tom, that the segments are going to all be somewhat similar? Or the growth segments, I'm looking at missiles systems and IDS, and that essentially the other two primary segments are a partial offset there?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, Rob, I think again, we were just trying to give everybody a high level look at next year. We're not prepared to go into the details by business because some things are probably going to move around between now and January when we do that for you guys. As I mentioned, we're still in the middle of our process of walking this all down.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then just on services itself, there's a lot of activity in the market, some people buying, others selling. You've gotten deeper into commercial cyber. Is there any kind of portfolio shaping that's left at IIS just to streamline services going forward in a market that seems a little bit volatile, if I may?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah so, Robert, we continually look at that in terms of our portfolio shaping, essentially quarterly in terms of all of our programs. And then we mentioned this on prior calls, we never got into the fed IT business. We had good vision and I guess we had the right crystal ball at the time not to get into that particular business area. So most of our services are what we call the value-added type services in terms of servicing our products and our solutions. We're getting us into areas where we can do maintenance and sustainment and also upgrades to systems that are out there which essentially fits better into our overall portfolio of other systems.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
And I think, Rob, in general, we're always looking at that across the company.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Right.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Including if there are certain programs or products that are better suited even internally in one business or another. So, it's something we constantly look at.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
All right. It sounds like you're pretty happy with the portfolio. And then just a quick one. I don't know what you can say on this. You were asked about it last quarter, but I'm going to ask it differently. I know you can't talk about what you'll do for bomber, but can you tell us which team you're more significantly positioned on?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I wish I could tell you anything on the bomber, but I'm not going to be able to tell – go there on that answer.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sorry about that.
Robert M. Spingarn - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
All right. Okay thanks, Tom.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Robert Stallard from Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed.
Rob Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thanks very much. Good morning.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Robert.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Hi, Rob.
Rob Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Just quickly on the cash front, Tom, both of you actually, Tom and Toby. You both mentioned that your appetite for acquisitions going forward would be pretty small. I was wondering what sort of free cash flow return to shareholders we might anticipate looking forward. We're looking at sort of 90% or something like that. And then as a follow up, what do you think the split would be of that return between buybacks and dividends? Thank you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I'll give you kind of the top line here, and we keep readdressing this at all our calls to make sure that you understand how consistent we are on it. And we do drive a balanced capital deployment strategy. And so we look at all avenues and try to make sure we do the right thing for the shareholder in terms of total shareholder return. So from that perspective, I'll give it over to Toby here to go through the, I guess the exact numbers as we move forward.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so I think, Rob, as you know we've been in the range of 80% to 90% the last few years. Be similar this year, depending on how things shake out a little bit. As far as going forward, I think generally speaking, I think of it at the same way in the context of the broad balanced capital deployment strategy that Tom just referred to. Again, we think it's served us well historically. As far as the mix, I won't comment specifically on a mix of how that return would split between dividend and/or buyback. But what I would tell you, that both elements would be part of our return to shareholders going forward. Obviously, we're subject to board approval on these things. But from a dividend perspective, obviously we want to make sure it's competitive and sustainable at the same time. And we'll give you all an update early next year as to our thinking on that, and I think it's usually our March timeframe when we get the board to vote on the dividend, and we'll provide you that detailed information. But you're absolutely right, too, about the aspect of acquisitions, and just to be very clear, we don't have sitting here today any $1 billion-plus deals that we're contemplating for any part of the portfolio including our commercial cyber venture. It would be the more niche targeted type of acquisitions that fill technology gaps or product gaps or customer gaps as we've talked about.
Rob Stallard - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. That's great. Thanks very much.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Thanks, Robert.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Robert.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Pete Skibitski from Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
On the strong cash flow this quarter, I think you mentioned cash tax timing. Can you tell us what were cash taxes in the quarter and then what's the full year expectation? And then is there any opportunity to outperform your cash flow guidance?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
So, let me start with the last one first. I mean we feel pretty comfortable. Obviously we've got a range of a couple hundred million dollars on the cash flow outlook for the year of the $2.5 billion to the $2.7 billion. As far as Q3 of 2015 versus 2014, the cash taxes were favorable by about $130 million on a quarter-over-quarter basis there. Let me just check on the absolute amount of the cash taxes here for you. So the cash taxes paid this year were about $300 million.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
That's year to date or for the full year?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
No, that was in the quarter, okay. For full year it's about $1.2 billion.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Okay, got you, got you. And then just one follow-up guys. It's some of the wins you had, I think LISC and NORAD that came off, I thought they were in the IIS segment. And I think you made some comments at the beginning, but are those in IIS? And if so, I was surprised, I mean we didn't get a guidance increase in that segment.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
They were both in IIS, that's correct. Just remember, one of them, the DOMino is being protested. So it was not – I mean it was awarded, but then protested.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Okay. Okay.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
The NISSC was protested, and then the protest went in our favor. So that one's done. But DOMino award was protested and it's still in protest.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, and obviously where there wasn't a guidance increase, Pete, those were contemplated in the outlook we had previously given.
Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, good morning. Thank you.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Hunter.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Good morning.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Just a follow-up to Rob's question about the capital deployment. I understand you guys want to give yourselves some flexibility. But just if we just go through just some of the moving parts in terms of sort of higher operating cash flow next year net of eBorders. Given the 80% to 90% return policy, which has been how you guys have thought about it historically, would you say at a baseline, it's probably fair to assume that the repo continues at this $250 million s quarter, $1 billion annual run rate at a baseline barring a major change in sort of the funding environment? Is it fair to think about it that way?
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, I wouldn't think of it that way necessarily. I mean we bumped it up this year, right. We were at $750 million. We went up to $1 billion, based upon how we felt about where the stock was valued and the growth opportunities that we had in front of us to improve the valuation in the stock, which we've talked about today relative to the strong bookings to date, the backlog, the growth we see for next year. We obviously still think that there's upside in the valuation from Websense. We know we're in a kind of a wait and see period here. But over time, and again not to beat a dead horse, right, we just wanted to give you all a high level view of things and we'll certainly provide more color and specificity on the detailed components of our overall capital plan in the January call as well.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thanks.
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, I think the other message we wanted to send is that the growth in 2015 is not limited to 2015, based obviously on our backlog but also what we see in the demand signal pulls, we will be growing in 2016. That was really the message.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. All right, thanks guys. And then as we think about international a little bit more, sort of parsing that out a little bit. Maybe this is an incorrect conclusion, but does the orientation towards some of the smaller size awards dovetail into maybe more of a direct commercial mix versus FMS, or is that just a line that shouldn't be drawn? And if you could give me at a higher level sort of how foreign direct has trended as a percentage of the international bookings and backlog over the last couple years and how you sort of expect that to trend moving forward into next year?
Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me give you kind of our strategy relative to FMS versus direct commercial sale. So number one is, we always work with the customer. And if a customer prefers to go FMS, we obviously support that customer and go on FMS. If there is a choice to be made between FMS and direct commercial sale, we do look at in terms of what is the overall risk in taking a direct commercial sale. So we're pretty prudent in terms of how we make the decisions relative to pushing FMS versus DCS. Now that being said, we do have significant DCS opportunities. We have the direct commercial sale work in-house today that we're doing quite well on. And Toby can give you the exact breakout.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Yeah, so at the end of Q3, about 40% of our international backlog was FMS with the balance being direct commercial, so the 40-60 split. That's changed a little bit. It's come, the FMS content percentage-wise has come down a little bit by maybe about 5 points. So that had been a little bit higher, around 45%. Going forward, I don't know that I'd necessarily expect any major change. I'm thinking we'd probably continue to be in that 40% to 45% range at any given point depending upon the mix of programs. And as Tom said, some of them we have to have FMS. Some of them we'll try to drive to DCS. But I wouldn't expect any significant change in that mix.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Anthony F. O'Brien - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President:
Okay.
Todd Ernst - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. It looks like we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter call in January. Mark?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - Vice President, Investor Relations Thomas Kennedy - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Toby O’Brien - Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Robert Spingarn - Credit Suisse Carter Copeland - Barclays Peter Arment - Sterne Agee Robert Stallard - Royal Bank of Canada Jason Gursky - Citi Myles Walton - Deutsche Bank Howard Rubel - Jefferies Hunter Keay - Wolfe Research David Strauss - UBS Richard Safran - Buckingham Research
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Raytheon Q2 2015 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Mark and I will be your operator for today. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Todd Ernst, Vice President of...
Todd Ernst:
Investor relations. Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we’ll reference are available on our Web site at raytheon.com. Following this morning’s call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the investor relations section of our Web site. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O’Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We’ll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then we’ll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I’d like to caution regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company’s future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. This morning Raytheon reported solid second quarter operating results. Sales exceeded our guidance increasing by 3% over second quarter 2014. This was driven by IDS and missiles and was primarily organic. With this solid revenue performance, we now see an opportunity for top line growth in 2015. EPS and cash flow also exceeded our expectations in the quarter. This performance demonstrates that our focus on global growth is succeeding. As a result, we have updated our financial outlook to reflect our solid year to date performance and the acquisition of Websense in late May. Toby will walk you through those details in a few minutes. Global demand for advanced technologies drove an 11.9% increase in bookings in the quarter compared to the second quarter 2014. International bookings were particularly strong representing 46% of total bookings, led by the $2 billion Saudi Patriot award as well as a number of missile awards. Domestic bookings were also solid with awards from across our portfolio including Standard Missile 3, Evolved Seasparrow Missile, next generation radars for P-8 maritime aircraft as well as $626 million in classified awards at both SAS and IIS. Given the strength of our overall bookings year to date, we now expect full-year 2015 bookings to be approximately $24.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million. The Raytheon team and I had the opportunity to meet with many of our global customers last month at the Paris Air Show. The feedback reinforced what we have been seeing over the last year. That is many of them are investing in strong defense to deter evolving threats. I would note that compared to the Farnborough Air Show last year, the demand to strengthen the deterrence has increased, particularly from our customers in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. We see this increased demand reflected in our results. For example, at the end of the second quarter of 2015 approximately 44% of our total backlog was international. A new high for the company. This compares to 38% at the end of the second quarter 2014. Total backlog increased $1.5 billion year-over-year to $34.5 billion. This is important because it sets the stage for growth and provides future margin expansion opportunity. I would like to take a moment to further highlight our missile business. As many of you know, Raytheon is a premier provider of missile and ship defense system. Whether it's for new build or upgrading existing ships, most of them will have one or more Raytheon missile systems solutions on them. Our core product within this domain is our Standard missile family of interceptors. Standard Missile-6, also known as SM-6, is designed to provide over the horizon defense against aircraft and anti-ship cruise missiles. In the second quarter, an SM-6 successfully intercepted a supersonic target in over the horizon test, a key demonstration of the missile's capability. Further SM-6 moved from low rate initial production to full rate production in the second quarter. We also received $143 million booking in the quarter which drove year-to-date bookings for SM-6 to approximately $215 million. Another version of our Standard Missile is SM-3, which is used by the U.S. Navy to intercept short to intermediate range ballistic missile threats. This is one of the company's largest programs. In the second quarter we received a $512 million award for the 1B version of this missile, supporting the ongoing ramp-up in production. The SM-3 1B will be deployed on the U.S. and allied navy ships. It will also be deployed at the end of the year on land in Europe as an integral part on Phased Adaptive Approach missile defense system. The next generation of SM-3 has also taken flight. In the second quarter, SM-3 IIA which we are developing in partnership with Japan, had its first flight test which was successful and is expected to enter production later in the decade. Taken all together, Standard Missile programs have driven over $800 million of bookings year-to-date. Beyond Standard Missile, the missile business segment is also benefitting from significant demand for a wide range of other solutions, including global demand for Paveway and the Evolved Seasparrow missile, which saw strong bookings in the quarter. Our missile portfolio was well-aligned with the evolving priorities of our global customers and that provides a strong foundation for our future growth. Looking at our domestic market from a broader perspective. Defense budget environment remains fluid. While there have been positive signs coming from Washington, there are still differences between Congress and the administration in their approaches to fund fiscal year '16 defense spending. Additional time maybe needed to resolve these differences which increases the probability of another continuing resolution this fall. We have had CRs for the past several years and we would not expect a significant impact on our results should we have another one this year. Now turning to our capital deployment strategy. As part of our balanced approach, we are increasing our expectation for the share repurchase program. We now expect the share repurchase for full year 2015 to be around $1 billion, which represents a $250 million increase both over 2014 and our original expectation for 2015. This follows a 10.7% increase in the dividend in the first quarter and the Websense transaction in May. As I mentioned, we closed on the Websense acquisition in the second quarter and the integration is on track. The combination of Raytheon and Websense is a great fit, allowing us to bring our advanced cyber-security capabilities to government and commercial customers around the world. We welcome Websense employees to the Raytheon team. Overall, I am pleased with our performance in the quarter. The members of our team are proud and passionate about what they do for our global customers, our investors and our company. And the focus and enthusiasm contributed to our success and helped drive our results. I would like to thank the Raytheon team for its hard work and dedication. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Toby O’Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the second quarter highlights and then we will move on to questions. During my remarks I will be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. Okay. If everyone would please turn to Page 3. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the second quarter with sales, EPS and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the second quarter at $7.6 billion, resulting in a book to bill ratio of 1.3. Sales were $5.8 billion in the quarter, up 3%, led by our IDS business. You should note that with the acquisition of Websense, we have moved away from presenting adjusted numbers but have provided additional information that should help you with your understanding of the financial performance of the company. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.65, which I will give a little more color on in a few minutes. And operating cash flow of $376 million was better than our prior guidance, driven by the timing of collections. Second quarter 2015 operating cash flow was higher than last year's second quarter primarily due to the timing of required pension contributions and the expected collection of the eBorders settlement with the U.K. Home Office which we resolved in the first quarter 2015, partially offset by higher cash taxes. During the quarter, the company repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for $200 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.6 million shares for $500 million. As Tom mentioned, we closed on the Websense transaction on May 29 and formed Raytheon Websense, a new joint venture company that was created through the combination of Websense and Raytheon Cyber Products. The Raytheon Websense segment results have been presented to reflect Raytheon Cyber Product results for all periods and Websense results after the acquisition date. Our full year 2015 guidance, which I will discuss in a few minutes, has been updated to include Websense, as well as improved operating performance for the first half of the year, which I will address further in a few minutes. Turning now to Page 4. Let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Company bookings for the quarter were $7.6 billion an increase over $800 million compared to the second quarter 2014. And on a year-to-date basis were $12.1 billion, an increase of approximately $1 billion over the same period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing four quarter basis, our book to bill ratio was 1.1 times. For the quarter, international was 46% of total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 41%. For the year, we expect international to be in the range of 32% to 35% of total bookings. As Tom just mentioned, we booked several significant awards in the second quarter, including a $2 billion contract for Patriot for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. $538 million on the Warfighter FOCUS program. $529 million for Standard. $511 million on Evolved Seasparrow Missile and $363 million Paveway. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was $34.5 billion, an increase of approximately $1.5 billion compared to the second quarter of last year. And on a funded basis, backlog was $25.3 billion, an increase of almost $1.8 billion compared to the last year's comparable quarter. If you now move to Page 5. As I mentioned earlier, for the second quarter 2015 sales exceeded the high end of the guidance range we set in April, primarily due to better than expected performance at IDS and missiles. For the second quarter, our international sales were approximately 30% of total sales and all of our businesses were at or above our expectations. Looking now at sales by business. IDS had second quarter 2015 net sales of $1.7 billion, an increase of approximately 10% compared to the second quarter of 2014. The increase was primarily due to two recent international Patriot awards. It is important to note that the second quarter 2015 included the recognition of additional sales for pre-contract work that had previously been deferred. We now expect full year growth to be closer to 4%. In the second quarter 2015, IIS and missiles had net sales of $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion respectively. In line to slightly up when compared with the same quarter last year. SAS had net sales of $1.4 billion. The change versus last year was driven by volume on international tactical radar systems programs. And for Raytheon Websense, keep in mind that the results for the second quarter of 2015 include Raytheon Cyber Products for the full quarter and Websense results for the month of June. Moving ahead to Page 6. Overall, the company continues to perform well. Our operating margin was 11.1%, both on a total company and the business segment basis. On a year-to-date basis, our operating margin was 13.4% and on a business segment basis was 13.2%. As we discussed on the last few earnings calls, compared to 2014, our margins for 2015 have been impacted by a change in program mix as well as higher IR&D and program investments. We continue to invest in ourselves with the objective of positioning the company for future growth. So looking now at the business margins. The change in margins at IDS was primarily driven by a change in program mix on international Patriot programs nearing completion. Included in IDS operating income in the second quarter of 2015 was an adjusted of $33 million to eliminate all remaining estimated incentive fees related to the air warfare destroyer program due to the shipbuilder extending the planned schedule and related increase in cost to complete its portion of the program. Although Raytheon's performance continues on plan for both a cost and schedule standpoint, the shipbuilder is now estimating an increase in its cost to complete the program which drove the decrease in estimated incentive fees. The change in margin at IIS was primarily driven by a change in program mix. Missiles and SAS margins were down in the quarter compared with the same period last year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies in the second quarter of 2014. And at Raytheon Websense, the second quarter 2015 operating margin reflects higher Raytheon Cyber expenses to develop and launch new commercial products compared to the second quarter 2014, as well as approximately $5 million of restructuring cost associated with the combination of Websense and Raytheon Cyber Products. When you normalize for these two items, Raytheon Websense margin would be in the high teens range. Before turning to the next page, I wanted to spend a minute discussing the purchase accounting adjustments and corporate items related to the Websense acquisition. In the second quarter of 2015, we had a deferred revenue adjusted of approximately $10 million and about $8 million for the amortization of acquired intangible assets. In addition, I want to point out that on the corporate line there is approximately $23 million of Websense acquisition related costs. Turning now to Page 7. Second quarter 2015 EPS was $1.65. Better than expected driven by higher sales. Of note, second quarter 2015 included a favorable $0.29 non-cash tax settlement as reflected in our prior guidance, and an unfavorable $0.09 associated with the Websense acquisition. On Page 9, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2015 to included Websense as well as our improved operating margin to date compared to our prior guidance. We are increasing full year 2015 net sales by $400 million. Of which approximately $300 million is driven by IDS and missiles and approximately $100 million is driven by the Websense acquisition. We now expect our full year 2015 net sales to be between $22.7 billion and $23.2 billion, which is flat to up 2% over 2014. We now expect the EPS impact from the Websense acquisition to be $0.25 dilutive for 2015 compared with the original estimate of $0.48 we provided you back on April 20. This change is driven by the completion of our fair value analysis and as a result we have updated our acquisition accounting adjustments. We have now incorporated this EPS impact into our updated 2015 guidance. Our full year 2015 EPS is now expected to be in the range of $6.47 to $6.62, which were normalized for the acquisition, is an improvement of about $0.05 over our previous guidance. And as a reminder, we have not included in our 2015 guidance the potential extension of the R&D tax credit. As I mentioned earlier, we repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for $200 million in the quarter. We are increasing our expected share repurchases for the year and now expect to repurchase approximately $1 billion, an increase of about $250 million from our initial outlook. We have tightened the range on share count and now see our diluted share count to be between 305 million and 306 million shares for 2015. Also we have raised the low end of the range for our 2015 operating cash flow guidance and now see it between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion. And as you can see on Page 9, we have updated this sales guidance range for three of our businesses and for the addition of Raytheon Websense. We have increased sales at both IDS and missiles to reflect stronger bookings and higher than expected volume to date. At IIS, we adjusted sales to reflect the realignment of Raytheon Cyber Products to the new Raytheon Websense segment. Turning to margin. We have updated the margin guidance range for the company to reflect the Websense acquisition and now see operating margin to be between 13.1% and 13.3% for the full year. At the business segment level, we see business segment operating margin in a range of 13.2% to 13.4% for the full year. It's worth noting that we expect operating margins at Raytheon Websense to be between 9% and 10% for the full year. And excluding acquisition related costs, their margins would be about 17% to 18%. On Page 10, we have provided some directional guidance on how we currently see the quarterly cadence for sales, earnings per share and operating cash flow from continuing operations for the balance of 2015. And on Page 12 we have provided a full year outlook of the Raytheon Websense acquisition accounting adjustments to help you with your long-term modeling. Please note that you will see a significant decline in the deferred revenue adjustment over the period and the amortization of acquired intangible assets will begin to decline more significantly after 2018. We now expect the joint venture to be accretive to GAAP earnings in two to three years, compared to our original expectations of three to four years. Before concluding, with regard to our capital deployment strategy, we expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet going forward. We remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders and customers. This includes internal investments to support our growth plans as well as returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. And as we sit here today, possibly smaller, targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs. In summary, if you stand back and look at the quarter, we have solid performance. Bookings were strong with a book to bill ratio of 1.3. Our sales, EPS and operating cash flow from operations were all higher than expected. Based on this performance and our near-term expectations, we increased our guidance for 2015 sales and if you exclude the impact of the Websense transaction, we raised EPS guidance by $0.05. We had strong cash flow generation and have increased our planned share repurchases from approximately $750 million to approximately $1 billion for the year. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn from Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert Spingarn:
Tom, just a question on Websense and the overall commercial cyber strategy. Could you may be put into context what you are seeing there with your expansion into that market just as some of your competitors apparently are exiting.
Thomas Kennedy:
I am not going to comment on the strategies of other companies but I can tell you that we are very excited about our Websense acquisition and our expansion into the commercial cyber market. The reasons we decided to do this are still solid and sound. We have been doing a very heavy integration effort for the last two months. And several of the reasons, and number one as you can see from reading the paper every day, the cyber threat continues relative to commercial companies as a new company that comes online everyday of having some type of a breach. And so we are continuing to get input and demand signals from commercial companies across the board and their demand is, they are looking for higher end, I would call defense-grade cyber solutions that will continue to -- and we see that increasing in the foreseeable future. So we see a strong demand, strong growth opportunities. But the combination of Raytheon and Websense is what's helping us deliver that high-end defense grade cyber capability.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. And then just as a follow-up to that. Just really on what you just spoke of. Is the thrust of this then really to sell Raytheon's product to Websense or through Websense's organization into the commercial market or also to sell the Websense product. And then what scale do you need to achieve with this segment for this strategy to work for investors?
Thomas Kennedy:
So first of all this is a two way, I would say winning side in terms of sales. One is, we are working to our sales channels which were initially in the government related world and international government related world. We are opening up those channels to the TRITON product, which is the Websense main platform. It's also allowing us, the commercial channels to go into the commercial world with our SureView product. And we believe we now have scale you will see and as Toby showed you, it's approximately $500 million a year in revenue, and now we have access to the commercial channels that we are going after. And a plus for the TRITON product is now they have access into the defense and also government channels that we had.
Robert Spingarn:
Which side of the two way would be the larger opportunity?
Thomas Kennedy:
I think it goes both ways. We are seeing a pent up demand on the government side for the TRITON platform and we are also seeing a pent up demand on the commercial side for the elements of the SureView product, four main products that dropped into the TRITON platform for up sell. And we are seeing a benefit both ways and we anticipated those synergies and we are seeing those synergies come to fruition.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Carter Copeland from Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland:
Just a couple of them. Toby on the AWD program, I wondered if you could just clarify if there is any risk of further financial impact there. Basically you have got that scrubbed to zero. And then the pre-contract revenue recognition, I wondered if you might size that for us?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So first with AWD, the answer is yes, that's scrubbed to zero as you say. The adjustment that we took in the quarter of the $33 million eliminated all of the remaining incentive fees where we were tied to the shipbuilder performance. So we do not anticipate any additional write-offs there relative to AWD. And then related to the pre-contract it was in the $100 million to $150 million range.
Carter Copeland:
Okay. And then just as a follow-up. Obviously, I know you have been talking about IDS margin progression but the guidance implies a pretty big step up in the back half of the year. How should we think about how much of that is trend line to look at going forward and how much might be temporary related to either performance adjustments you expect to see as you hit milestones? Any color you can give us on that would be helpful.
Toby O’Brien:
Sure. Sure. So I think when you step back from it and we go back to the end of January then again in April, we talked about how at the company level we saw a couple of things driving margins down this year. The unfavorable mix and the higher level of investment. IDS of all the businesses followed by SAS was most impacted by the unfavorable mix. So what we are seeing is consistent with what we had expected to see for the year. That said, the margin in Q2 was in line with our expectations. So even though we had the unfavorable adjustment on AWD, we did see some other performance improvements in the quarter that essentially offset that. That again is consistent with lower margins in the first half of the year. We still expect to ramp up on IDS margins, particularly in Q4 as the overall business mix improved due to the ramp-up of the international awards that we saw at the end of last year and into the early part of this year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Peter Arment from Sterne Agee.
Peter Arment:
Tom, could you give us an update on Germany's decision to go with MEADS. Maybe just, is that is more looked at as a one-off or changes anything on the competitive landscape? How you are thinking about future Patriot awards?
Thomas Kennedy:
First of all, we continue to work with the German customer. We already have the Patriot system in there and it is going through some upgrades relative to our Configuration-3 Plus. They are upgrading some of the -- all their systems. And they have decided to keep the patriot system operational till 2025. We have, obviously, heard their decision on MEADS but at the same time we continue to work with that customer as we proceed forward. We have not seen any changes relative to any of the competitions we are in or are perceived to be in in the near future that would impact any Patriot opportunities.
Peter Arment:
Okay. Thank you for that. And, Toby, just quickly. Just on the domestic growth versus international. I think previously you kind of guided to low single-digit down for domestic and up for international. Is that still intact for as we look for 2015?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So for our total year now for domestic, the way to think of it, Peter, is to be flat to down in the low-single digits and for international for the year to be up in the mid-single digits.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard:
Tom, you mentioned the TRITON product at Websense earlier on. I was wondering if you could give us an idea of how the organic growth on that product has been tracking, year to date?
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, the organic growth has been tracking about in the double-digits on that product. And as we mentioned before on the prior calls, they have two major products. One product is, I would call web filtering, that is declining and being replace by the TRITON platform. So if you look at the TRITION platform itself, it's in double-digit growth year-over-year.
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, Robert. As we talked about, we only have the month of June in the quarter post-acquisition. But if we look at the full quarter for Websense, TRITON, their bookings would have grown by about 10% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Robert Stallard:
Okay. And then, Tom, maybe a bigger picture question. I was wondering if you could comment on what you think the impact to this Iran nuclear deal could be on your customers in the Middle East.
Thomas Kennedy:
I am not going to get tied up in the politics of it but I can take you back to my statements earlier, that we are seeing an increased demand signal across the board. And it's not just in the Middle East which is what we are seeing in Eastern Europe and also in the Asia Pacific region and it's really for different regions. But it is -- any uncertainty in the geopolitical aspects of those regions, we are seeing an almost immediate reaction from these countries to want to beef up their defense. And I think if you look at this quarter, you will see the results of that in our bookings. And if you also, I did mention it, I know it was one quick line in my opening remarks but we hit an all time high in the company this year and that all time high was in the amount of international backlog and that was 44%. And we didn’t break open any champagne bottles and throw any glasses into the fireplace or anything like that but it is monumental for us to be able to have achieved that. And I think the correlation goes right to this, back that the threat is not going away it's increasing. And we are seeing it across three major regions of the world.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky from Citi. Please proceed.
Jason Gursky:
I just wanted to follow up on the line of questioning of the last couple of callers there and have you discuss a little bit more about the longer term outlook as you move out into 2020, the back half of the decade here. I know you've talked about this before but it would be, I think, helpful to get some updated thoughts from you on how you view both the domestic and international market playing out over the next couple of years. When do you see a return to growth in your domestic business? And then as you look out into that, as far as 2020, the pipeline that you have on the international side and how you're going to be able to, or if you're going to be able to, sustain the types of growth that you are seeing today as we move out into the latter years of this decade?
Thomas Kennedy:
So Jess, let me and then I will turn it over to Toby and he can put some numbers behind what I say. Right off the bat, I will just go back to the discussions we have had at, I think in the last call. And we have won some major domestic programs that were in development on right now. One is air missile defense radar the other one is next-generation jammer, FAB-T. We've also won a couple that are still on protest. But the ones we are finishing up, we will be finishing up on development will be in about the '18,'19 timeframe, which then will start going into LRIP and then by '20 going into full rate production. So on the domestic side, we are going to start to see an uptick relative to more production programs coming on line. So I think that’s good on to the domestic front. You are also seeing, based on the budget drills this year, that both the administration and also Congress are aligned with the fact that they believe that the budget needs to increase over the Budget Control Act of 2011 caps. The issue that they are having is how to go off and achieve that increase. But the bottom line is that they are both aligned, the administration and Congress, on the need for the increase. So we feel very positive about some breakthrough here in the next, hopefully next year, relative to '16s budget increasing over the Budget Control Act caps. However, we do have planned to the Budget Control Act caps which are about 1% increase over the fiscal year 2015. So we do see the domestic budget increasing over time. On the international, we talked about some major awards. We were down selected by Poland. That contract will be definitized over the next year and a half on the details, starting ramping up in late 2016 and 2017. So we see that program picking up and hitting the production numbers in about 2020. So again an uplift in the timeframe and taking this into 2025. So overall, both on the domestic and on the international we see a significant pipeline that will take us well beyond 2020.
Toby O’Brien:
And Jason, I will just kind of jump in there a little bit and add a little to what Tom said. So in addition to the programs transitioning domestically a little bit nearer term, SM-3, with the one being the IIA, will be moving to production. And to answer your question about when we would see a return to growth domestically, right now as best we can tell maybe late next year and if not into '17 for our revenue to start growing domestically. I think what Tom just commented on from the international combined with the 44% backlog that’s international today. That pipeline Tom referred to, the 30% of our sales that were in international, that sets us up nicely for international to grow including into next year. And, obviously, as we said, we now see top line growth this year with our outlook for being flat to up 2%. Previously we had looked at '16 as a return to growth. So we are kind of moving that outlook in a year and we still see year-over-year growth in '16 as well.
Thomas Kennedy:
It’s a very, I think, a very good picture moving forward.
Jason Gursky:
Yes, it sounds great. Just a quick follow-up question. On margins, Toby, can you talk a little bit about what's going to happen specifically in IDS in the back half that allows you to achieve the full-year guidance? And then, Tom, on the longer term outlook you just talked about with these ramping programs. What did that do to margins for the overall company if you are ramping development and early stage production on those things that you just talked about? Does that put you [indiscernible]?
Thomas Kennedy:
What I think I will do is, Toby, he just went over on this actually on his discussion before. He will hit the IDS details and then I will kind of give you the bigger picture relative to where we see margins going in the future.
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So, Jason, for IDS as we said before, the results so far have been consistent with our expectation given the impact of mix that we have seen there. In the second half, primarily in the fourth quarter is where we expect the uptick and there is really two things that are driving that. The mix, the business mix is going to start to improve with the large international programs, again, that we booked late last year and through the first half of this year, as they continue to move and ramp up through the production cycle. Additionally, we would also expect in the fourth quarter to see more program efficiencies flowing through to the bottom line. And overall we still see the margin outlook for the total year at IDS in the range of 15.1% to 15.3%.
Thomas Kennedy:
Then relative to margins on the domestic side, we talked about some major development programs we had won and they are now obviously in development. When they start switching into production, we normally see a margin increase due to the fact that we are taking on more risk on the production side on firm type proposals. I mean firm fixed price contracts. We will see an uptick there in the margins but on the international side, as Toby mentioned, we have had some significant bookings here in the last year and a half. The area we are working right now and I think it's a great sign here is we are bringing on more suppliers. We are increasing the number of shifts we have in the factory, adding on days. So we are seeing, essentially getting quite a bit of synergy across these different wins that we had internationally and we do see a margin expansion across those programs as we go into 2016 and beyond.
Toby O’Brien:
And I think Jason just, if you are looking for a little more color or detail from an IDS perspective, the reason we see that our program efficiency towards the end of the year is the effects of things like strategic sourcing, automation in our factories that are driving efficiencies, again tied to the ramp up of those major production programs that we have referred to before.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Myles Walton:
Just a quick follow-up on that one. Maybe, Toby, the run rate in the second half of '15, obviously, pretty great if you can get there on IDS. Is that the appropriate way to think about the mix as it's going to look into '16 or is there just a healthy performance in the second half that we should not think about that as a run rate?
Toby O’Brien:
So let met talk a little bit about IDS, right. So I mentioned in the second quarter they had strong sales growth and part of that was driven by the recognition of the pre-contract work that we talked about earlier. As far as the second half goes for a Q3 perspective, we do expect sales at IDS to be up high single digits in Q3. However, when we get to Q4, we will look to see sales on a quarter-over-quarter basis to be essentially flat compared to last year. Because in the fourth quarter of last year we did have a buildup of inventory that did convert into sales, that makes the comparison a little bit different. I wouldn’t take that as a run rate going into '16, however, but I would expect directionally '16 to be better than '15.
Myles Walton:
Okay. No, that's really helpful. And then, Tom, at a high level, lot of companies have been looking at their services blend with hardware. Do the two cost structures support themselves from a competitive perspective? And I'm sure you've gone through this exercise and not looking to layer other peoples strategies upon you. But how do you look at that equation where the services market becomes more and more competitive relative to the cost structure that's somewhat required for your hardware sensitive businesses?
Thomas Kennedy:
No, actually that’s a great question. So first thing to just kind of set the stage. Raytheon never went down the path of getting into Fed IT business. I don’t know if you realize that. So we recognized a long time ago that that was not a business that we wanted to be in, really, because we saw that would eventually get commoditized. So we don’t have any of that effort going on within the company. The services that we do, most of it is associated with our products. So that helps us in maintaining our products, the logistics associated with our products. For example we do a lot of performance-based logistics relative to our products and that’s essentially comes under the umbrella of the services. Then in IIS where most of the traditional services are located, they are leaders in advanced solutions and capabilities and providing cyber services, intelligence, mission support and I would call high consequence training in key markets. And it's not just for the U.S. government, it's also for governments worldwide. So it's a pretty strong business for us. Again, we are not in the Fed IT, never were. So that’s an area that I think it's hard to compare us against some of these other companies that are shedding their services because a lot of that shedding is associated with the Fed IT.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Howard Rubel from Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Rubel:
Toby, I want to know if in some of your other forecasts going forward you're always going to basically understate acquisitions by about 50% of the cost? Because originally, as you indicated, it was going to be $0.48, and here we are looking at about half that. Can you elaborate on what has changed? And as we go forward and look at Websense, the deferred revenue number seems relatively modest versus the balance. What happened?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So just as a reminder, Howard, back in April when we gave the initial estimates, they were preliminary and subject to our final purchase accounting valuation. Part of our process, we had looked at other transactions and there were a range of potentials relative to percentage of assets etcetera. Percentage of purchase price that would be potentially characterized as intangible or the deferred revenue. So we had a range. We didn’t want to come back here and increase the dilution, for lack of a better way to say it. And in the quarter, as we do after, we close on all our acquisitions, we embarked upon the formal fair value analysis. We finalized that here at the end of June and what you see now is the update to reflect that. So it was really nothing more than that.
Howard Rubel:
All right. I am going to talk about Patriot for one second. Tom, you sort of created a Patriot users group with all of your different customers around the world. Could you talk a little bit more about the ideas that you are getting from them that are, I will call it, leading to an ongoing upgrade in the system? And how do you see that playing out?
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, let me just -- on a baseline element we are proceeding on upgrades of what's called Configuration-3 Plus. That was the upgrade to the Patriot system that was funded by the UAE several years back. We still have 72 fire units out there as opportunities to upgrade to Configuration-3 Plus. So we are off pursuing that element of it. In addition to that and as the user group is looking for us to provide a 360 AESA radar and we have been off working that for several years now and done some significant testing and believe we are in a position to take on contracts for that development of the 360 AESA radar. Right now there is an opportunity to replace 220 Patriot radars with the 360 AESA radar. So significant upgrades there. The other area that we are doing and it's on the international side is, and it's in Qatar, it's a contract to provide an air defense operating center which integrates all air defense systems. I think that will be the next thing that we are seeing with some of these other customers who have other air defense assets. They want them integrated with one common operating picture so that they can get the synergy of having everything together in one place and operated by one operator. So those are the type of upgrades we are pursuing. In many of the cases we already have contracts to start those systems, so we already have the initial customers. And then in some cases we are getting ready to get or first initial customer to move forward with them.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter Keay:
Two questions on content. Can you remind us of your exposures to Sikorsky, however you want to quantify that? I think it's small but just to verify. And how should we think about Raytheon's potential role on long range strike? Haven't really heard a lot about that. Any color on that? Maybe it's too early, maybe not. Anything you want to provide would be great.
Thomas Kennedy:
Relative to Sikorsky, you are right. We don’t have much content on the Sikorsky products. We have worked a lot with them. I have personally worked with Sikorsky on programs in the past. But right now it's not a significant of our revenue stream. Relative to long range strike, we really can't comment at this time.
Hunter Keay:
Okay. I got you. All right, thanks. And then I think you guys made the comment last quarter, you've made, I think, dozens of cyber acquisitions over the last couple of years. I'm curious to hear what some of the lessons learned would be in terms of the pitfalls? Not necessarily what went right but what went wrong? And what can you take from that, as we look at Websense, in terms of things to avoid in the past that can be applied here at least?
Thomas Kennedy:
I will tell you what, the lessons learnt led to the acquisition of Websense. And so the lessons were, if we did very well in buying these companies on the government side but we were not achieving any upside relative to the commercial side. And so when we went back and reevaluated the reason why it turned out that we didn’t have the commercial channels. And it takes quite a bit of effort to establish channels to be able to reach out to 30,000 customers versus 20 government customers. That’s the different game. Is wasn’t the technology, an underlying technology, it wasn’t the products, it wasn’t the personnel. It was essentially not having access to the market channels that’s required in the commercial business. And so that was the lesson learnt. And so we took that lesson learned and we went out and we started in 2013 looking at what was the best company out there that we could potentially acquire that would enable us to unlock the capabilities we had from the other acquisitions but into the commercial marketplace. And someone that already had a strong position, already had a new product, a new platform, allowing us to move forward. And so essentially it was the structure of how we implemented those companies. And we right now have -- everything we are seeing, we think we have taken that lesson learned to heart and are making the right inroads into that commercial marketplace.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Strauss from UBS. Please proceed.
David Strauss:
Toby, did I hear you right where you said Websense would be at high teens margins ex the cost to develop the commercial cyber product and then restructuring it? And if so, how long does it take until you are kind of through that spend to actually report high teens margins at Websense?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So the answer to the first part is, you hear it correct. Without those two items we would be, we said 17% to 18%, part 1. Part 2, relative to the timing of that, so we are always going to be looking to make investments in technology and make sure we are keeping up with the threat there. But if we were to look out over time without that, probably in the '17 timeframe.
David Strauss:
And how long are you running on the restructuring side? I mean how much restructuring is there to do here?
Thomas Kennedy:
The majority of it will be completed this year. There could be a little bit of a tail into early part of next year.
David Strauss:
Okay. And then a follow-up. So you've talked about $7 billion, roughly, in Patriot orders. A little bit surprised. I would have thought a fair amount of those orders would come with advanced payments, yet we haven't really seen -- we've actually seen the advanced payment balance go down. Can you just comment on that?
Thomas Kennedy:
So a couple of those orders were FMS, right, which do not have the advanced payments. What you have really seen here is a timing issue, right. And if I take it back up to a higher level not specific to those orders, we have seen the advance account on the balance sheet, to your point David, fluctuate over time, driven by the timing of those advances and then when they are subsequently liquidated. On average, historically we have run at a rate of about 9% to 10% of sales, okay. At the end of the first quarter, the balance was about $2 billion, to your point as well. Slightly below our five-year average which has been around $2.2 billion. And really the main driver on that was timing. Back last year in the first quarter we had received a significant advance from a customer and we had full liquidated that here to the first quarter of '15. On some of the new awards, we have milestone payments as well that are more weighted towards the back half of the year. That all said, from an overall point of view, we would expect our advances to remain in the range of about 9% of sales this year which is pretty much in line with prior periods in that $2 billion range.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Safran from Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Richard Safran:
A lot has been asked. I just wanted to ask you about some upcoming programs. There's this JSTARS recapitalization program out there. You announced some recent teaming with Bombardier and Lockheed. Northrop recently announced with Boeing. I just want to know, from your perspective, is this indicative that the program is more near term? If you could give us any sense of the timing of the opportunity and some sense of the size? Any color here on this would be helpful because I tend to think this is a rather substantial opportunity for you.
Thomas Kennedy:
No, we agree with you. You are right. We are teamed with Lockheed and Bombardier on one of the teams for work including sensors and some additional work. We are also providing a radar as a kind of a merchant supplier for the other teams, if they so desire. So we are kind of, have been spending quite a bit of time on this program in ensuring that we wind up with a piece of it moving forward.
Richard Safran:
Okay. And then just as a follow-up here also. So on your 3-D printing technology, just wanted to get a sense here. Is this applicable to current and future missile programs? Is this technology applicable across the board? Because I know there has been things like trying to get an upgrade here of the Tomahawk etcetera. Or is this more something that you are gearing towards like next generation missile programs, like the next generation land attack weapon?
Thomas Kennedy:
Let met first tell you why it's important and what it's bringing to the industry. The 3-D printing allows you to essentially build up these very complex assemblies. Multi-part assemblies as one part, one continuous part and therefore improving cost. But it also does something else. In areas where heat is a major issue, it allows the heat transfer capabilities to be significantly enhanced. When you have an assembly with multiple parts that are tied together, you have heat issues at the intersection of those pieces. So by being able to build one continuous, very complex part and you can solve a lot of the heat transfer problems which is very important as we move into the hypersonics area of our missiles.
Todd Ernst:
Okay. We are going to have to leave it there this morning. Thank you for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter call in October. Mark?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes your call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Todd Ernst - VP, Investor Relations Thomas Kennedy - Chairman and CEO Toby O’Brien - CFO
Analysts:
Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Company, Inc. Robert Stallard - Royal Bank of Canada Cai von Rumohr - SG Cowen Securities Inc. Carter Copeland - Barclays Robert Spingarn - Credit Suisse Hunter Keay - Wolfe Research Sam Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Peter Arment - Sterne Agee Pete Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton Doug Harned - Sanford Bernstein
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Todd Ernst:
Thank you, Chantilly. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we’ll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning’s call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Toby O’Brien, our Chief Financial Officer. We’ll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Toby and then we’ll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I’d like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company’s future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, I’d like to welcome Toby O’Brien to his first earnings conference call as CFO, a role which he officially assumed on March 2nd. Toby will walk you through additional details regarding our first quarter financial results in just a moment. I’m pleased to report that the company delivered solid operating results in the quarter with sales, EPS and cash flow that were all either in line or ahead of our expectations. Our international business continues to grow in the quarter and represent a 28% of total revenue. International also represented 34% of our total bookings in the quarter. And our international backlog was 41% of total backlog at quarter’s end. This backlog percentage will go higher with the $2 billion international Patriot award we announced last week, which was from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I will note that we continue to see strong demand signals beyond our recent bookings activity for our solutions from our global customers. In the quarter and the weeks immediately following, you will see important parts of our global growth strategy play out. We’ve announced significant recent bookings across our portfolio, particularly in the international Patriot that position the company for future growth. And we announced the strategic investment and partnership to harness rapid growth in the global cybersecurity market. Overall, we’ve made a considerable progress on these weak [ph] fronts and continue to move forward with our growth strategy. During the quarter, we always raised our dividend by 10.7%, the 11th consecutive annual increase, and will remain on track to reduce our shares outstanding for the year. This reflects our long term trend of returning cash to shareholders, something we will continue to do in line with our balanced capital deployment strategy. We’ve come out of the gate strong after the close of the first quarter with approximately $3 billion in bookings within the initial weeks of the second quarter, including the $2 billion Patriot booking from Saudi Arabia and a $507 million booking to upgrade the evolved Sea Sparrow Missile, a premier ship defense missile for the U.S. Navy and international customers. I’d like to take a moment to talk about our Patriot Integrated Air and Missile Defense franchise. Over the past 15 months, we have received nearly $7 billion in bookings for Patriot production and support services from a range of customers. This includes the recent Saudi $2 billion award as well as the Kuwait, Qatar, South Korea, and the U.S. Army. This provides the company with years of production work and backlog, and predictability to the manufacturing outlook and the opportunity to achieve higher production efficiencies. Looking forward, we continue to see significant opportunities for Patriot. Earlier this week, we were notified that the Patriot was selected by Poland for their medium range Integrated Air and Missile Defense system. We’ll be working with our Polish customer on the final offering and anticipate receiving a booking in 2016. Additionally, we’re in the final down select process in Germany. If selected, we anticipate that this will also translate into a booking opportunity in 2016. Patriot continues to evolve, ensuring that it will be capable of meeting next generation threats. Over the next few years, you’ll see us in collaboration with our current and future customers and new capabilities, including a 360-degree AESA radar capability and other enhancements. These capabilities will position Patriot to be the leading Integrated Air and Missile Defense solution for the next several decades. But as you know, Raytheon is much more than just Patriot. And to that point, we’ve seen considerable recent order activity domestically and internationally across a wide range of our systems and products, particularly in our missiles business. Demand for missiles is being driven by the evolving threats as well as our incorporation of technological advances into our products. One example of this is AMRAAM where we received a $539 million award in the first quarter for the latest version of the missile. We received a similar size award in December of last year. So within the past six months alone, we have received more than $1 billion in orders for AMRAAM. We continue to make important progress on many other key programs that will drive future growth. For example, on Small Diameter Bomb II, a premier precision weapon for both current and next generation platforms, we completed systems verification review in early April. This sets the stage for Milestone C which will be complete, the development phase, allowing the program to move into low rates initial production. Our Next Generation Jammer program remains a significant part of our electronic warfare initiative. The program continues to execute on or ahead of schedule and cost, and also completed key testing milestones in the quarter. Turning to a broader market perspective, domestically, I’m encouraged by recent developments on the fiscal year ‘16 defense budget process that both the administration and Congress have presented initial budget proposals that could exceed previously established budget caps. Many of our leaders agree that the cap levels are not sufficient to contend with today’s dynamic threat environment and are therefore seeking ways to add more resources. Well, we won’t speculate on what the final funding level for DoD will be in 2016. Even if the budget control caps are not raised at all, the DoD base budget funding will be several billion dollars higher in 2016 than 2015. Bottom line is the trajectory of the DoD base budget is finally starting to trend upward. Late in the first quarter, we announced the settlement with the U.K. Home Office relating to Raytheon Systems Limited eBorders contract. Under the settlement, we received a cash payment equal to approximately $226 million in exchange for the resolution of all claims and counter claims of both parties. Toby will walk you through the details in his remarks. As we announced earlier this week, consistent with our strategy to position Raytheon for global growth, we are now entering into a partnership with Vista Equity Partners, combining their premier commercial cybersecurity business, Websense, with Raytheon’s cyber products to form a new company. This new company will provide a broad set of integrated defense grade cybersecurity products and services to the global marketplace. We are very excited about this opportunity. We see significant revenue synergies and look forward to closing sometime late in the second quarter. In conclusion, I’m pleased with our performance in the first quarter, the progress in setting the foundation for future global growth. And I’d like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication for this great start to the year. With that, let me turn it over to Toby.
Toby O’Brien:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks starting with the first quarter highlights and then we’ll move on to questions. During my remarks, I’ll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. If everyone would turn to Page 3. We are pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the first quarter. All app [ph] are better than our expectations. It’s a good start to the year and we’re positioned well for achieving our full-year outlook. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.78. And on an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.26. I’ll discuss this in more detail in just a moment. Operating margin was solid at 15.9% and included the previously announced eBorders settlement with the U.K. Home Office. And on an adjusted basis, our operating margin was 11.5%. Sales of $5.3 billion were slightly higher than our guidance. During the quarter, the company bought back 2.8 million shares of common stock under the share repurchase program for $300 million. And we announced last month that we increased our dividend by 10.7%. We have now raised our annual dividend every year for the past 11 years. I also want to point out that we’re raising the guidance that we’ve provided in January to include the eBorders settlement. I’ll discuss guidance further in just a few minutes. Turning now to Page 4. Let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the first quarter were $4.5 billion. International awards represented 34% of the total. And on a trailing four-quarter basis, the book-to-bill ratio is 1.07. A couple of key bookings in the first quarter included a $769 million award for Patriot from the Republic of Korea and a $539 million award for AMRAAM for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy and international customers. And as Todd mentioned a few minutes ago, just after the end of the first quarter, we received significant orders from both domestic and international customers. We’re off to a strong start in the second quarter and the year-to-date bookings will help drive our second half performance. Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $32.5 billion and on a funded basis was $23.7 billion, an increase of almost $1 billion compared to the first quarter of 2014. It’s worth noting that we ended the first quarter of 2015 with approximately 41% of our backlog now comprised of international programs. If you’d now move to Page 5. As I just mentioned, for the first quarter of 2015, sales were slightly higher than the guidance we set in January. As a reminder, the first quarter of 2015 had one less work day than the first quarter of 2014 and this equates to about $100 million in sales overall. As we said in January, we expected the first quarter to be the most challenging. We still expect sales to ramp up throughout the year. Looking now at sales by business. IDS at first quarter of 2015 net sales of $1.4 billion. The change from Q1 2014 was primarily due to the plan completion of certain production phases on international Patriot programs. We expect IDS sales to increase as we move through the year as the recently awarded Patriot international programs begin to ramp up. In the first quarter of 2015, IIS had net sales of $1.4 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the change is primarily due to our training programs. Missile systems at first quarter of 2015 net sales of $1.5 billion. The change from the first quarter of 2014 was primarily due to both the Tomahawk and SM-3 programs. And SAS had net sales of $1.4 billion. Secure communication systems programs contributed to the change versus last year. Moving ahead to Page 6, we were pleased by our overall company margins. Our operating margin was 15.9% and on an adjusted basis was 11.5%. As a reminder, our first quarter of 2015 adjusted margin excludes both the favorable FAS/CAS adjustment which was worth 90 basis points or $0.10 per share and 340 basis points or $0.42 per share for the eBorders settlement. And as we discussed on the last earnings call in January, compared to 2014, we expect our margins for 2015 will be impacted by a change in program mix as well as higher R&D [ph] and program investments. We continue to invest in ourselves with the objective of positioning the company for future growth. So looking at the business margins, the change in margin at IDS was primarily driven by a change in program mix on international Patriot programs nearing completion. IES margin in the first quarter 2015 benefited from the eBorders settlement that I previously discussed which contributed $181 million to operating income. Without the settlement, IES margins would be 7.5% or in line with our expectations. Missiles margin was up in the quarter compared to the same period last year. This year’s first quarter benefited from a $25 million or approximately 170 basis point favorable resolution of a contractual issue which was previously expected later in the year. And SAS margin of 12.7% was down compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies in the first quarter of 2014. Overall, the company continues to perform well. Turning now to Page 7. First quarter 2015 EPS was $1.78 and on an adjusted basis was $1.26. EPS for the first quarter of 2015 was better than expected, primarily due to the eBorders settlement and from timing at Missiles. On Page 8, we are updating the company’s financial outlook for 2015 which now includes the impact of the eBorders settlement. As Tom mentioned, earlier in the week we announced the Websense transaction. We expect this transaction to close late in the second quarter and we will update our financial guidance subsequent to the closing. We still expect our full-year 2015 net sales to be in the range of between $22.3 billion and $22.8 billion. We have raised our full-year 2015 EPS which is now expected to be in a range of between $6.67 and $6.82. We expect adjusted EPS to be within a range of between $5.49 and $5.64 which is unchanged from our prior guidance. As a reminder, we have not included the possible extension of the R&D tax credit in our 2015 guidance. If the legislation passes, it would favorably impact the effective tax rate by about 110 basis points and our EPS by about $0.10. As I mentioned earlier, we re-purchased 2.8 million shares of common stock for $300 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 305 million and 307 million shares for 2015, a 2% reduction at the midpoint of the range. Operating cash flow in the quarter was in line with our prior guidance. As a result of the eBorders settlement, we now see our 2015 guidance for operating cash flow to be between $2.4 billion and $2.7 billion. We received the settlement payment in the second quarter. And as you can see on Page 9, we’ve included guidance by business which is unchanged from our prior outlook except for IIS and total company margin, which now include the eBorders settlement. On Page 10, we provided some directional guidance on how we currently see the quarterly cadence for sales, EPS and operating cash flow for the balance of 2015. As we discussed on the call in January, sales are expected to ramp up throughout the year. In the first half of 2015, we still expect sales to be down on a percentage basis. Sales in the back half of the year are expected to be in line to slightly up versus 2014. And if you compare second half sales to first half sales, we expect to see mid single-digit growth. As you may recall, our 2014 bookings finished strong, particularly with respect to international. This, taken together with the combined first quarter and early second quarter 2015 bookings, are all key drivers of our second half sales expectations. And as we discussed on the January call, our effective tax rate in the second quarter is expected to be impacted by a favorable non-cash tax settlement of $88 million or $0.29 per diluted share. Before concluding, I’d like to spend a minute to talk about our capital deployment strategy. We expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet going forward. We will remain focused on deploying capital to create value for our shareholders, including internal investments to support our growth plans as well as share buybacks and dividend increases that are subject to board approval. And as we sit here today, possibly smaller targeted acquisitions that fit our technology and global growth needs. In summary, we saw a good performance in the first quarter. We continue to execute well. Our bookings were ahead of last year’s first quarter and sales EPS and operating cash flow from operations were all in line or higher than the guidance we set in January. We remain well positioned with our domestic customers’ priority areas and continue to be aligned with the evolving priorities of our international customers. Our objective is to drive the business, to maximize value for our customers and shareholders. With that, Tom and I will now open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Howard Rubel of Jefferies. Please proceed.
Howard Rubel:
Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Howard.
Howard Rubel:
Toby, just as an observation first, I was thinking with this 20% margin now that Dave is not here to respond to it, thinking about maybe - if you know where I’m going - setting that as his incentive target goals for the balance of the year.
Toby O’Brien:
That’s good input, Howard. We’ll definitely take that into consideration.
Howard Rubel:
But in all seriousness, I asked sort of as a collection of businesses that have some interesting opportunities. And when we looked at the growth profile, it seems to be challenged relative to the overall environment. Can you explain and elaborate a little bit upon, not only what Websense is going to do, but where your initiatives are there to enhance that business?
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, hey, Howard, this is Tom. Let me take that. Number one, one of the strategies that IAS is actually executing very well is to expand its cyber capabilities in core competencies into both the international and now the commercial market space. And as we discussed on prior calls, we have had some significant wins on the international marketplace. And so we’re showing that we’re globally competitive in the cyber arena. And so we’re seeing expansion in that area. We’re also seeing them expand in their training worldwide. And some of it is under the Warfighter FOCUS program. But we’re also expanding into other areas of training into international markets. We’re direct with international governments. So that’s another big area that they’re moving out on. The other play is essentially upgrading a lot of the systems that are out there in terms of adding in information assurance capability taking the knowledge that they’ve gained from the GPS OCX program and leveraging that into other programs. And then the last one is - hopefully you’ve been watching and noticing that they’ve been winning quite a few programs out there. And for example, they won the LISC program. They’ve also just recently won the NISSC program. So they’ve been winning more than their fair shares of programs. And we’re very, I would say, upbeat relative to IAS in their ability to continue to grow and exceed the industry in their area in terms of growth.
Howard Rubel:
And then just one other follow-up question in a slightly different area. You’ve also expanded missile systems beyond just Patriot. And for a moment, could you just address how the NASAMS offerings are? I think you still have some opportunities there in Poland and elsewhere.
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, it’s a great question. And a lot of people - the NASAM system or sometimes called SL-AMRAAM, gets overshadowed by the Patriot. But our last big win on the NASAMS was in Oman. That was back in 2013. And that was about $1.3 billion for the system itself and then there was another $300 million worth of AMRAAM activities [indiscernible] FMS contract for a total deal of $1.6 billion. That system is deployed now or being deployed in six countries. I’ll tell you, it’s a very great system. And the other area that we are pursuing right now and we should learn in 2017 is a pursuit in Poland. This is a - we already got selected for the Patriot system for their, I would call, their medium integrated air and missile system. This is the lower tier missile defense system below Patriot. And we’re in a competition for that. Again, 2017 they’re going to make their selection.
Howard Rubel:
Thank you very much for your time.
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed.
Robert Stallard:
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Thomas Kennedy:
Hey, Rob. Good morning.
Robert Stallard:
Tom, first one, you mentioned OCD, the Poland decision, but also that Germany is moving towards the DAMs. So like do you think this is a sign that European defense spending might finally be stabilizing? And do you see other opportunities in the region?
Thomas Kennedy:
Number one, we do see other opportunities in the region. It is being driven by the geopolitics that are going on right now especially in the Eastern Europe. Poland is building up their defenses and making a major play in that area, again, under the auspices of a strong defense is a strong deterrence. And we’re also seeing that in other Eastern European countries also. Germany is in need to upgrade their systems. So I think you’re right. There is a little bit of maybe sense of urgency. But this was in their plan to do this upgrade for several years.
Robert Stallard:
Okay. And just a quick follow-up on Websense. I don’t think you mentioned it on the call the other day. When do you expect it to actually be accretive on a GAAP EPS basis?
Thomas Kennedy:
I’ll turn that over to Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Yes. So on a GAAP basis, Rob, we’re probably looking about three to four years down the road before it would be accretive. And that’s due really to the amortization of two non-cash items. One would be the intangibles associated with the transaction. Then also we’d be amortizing some deferred revenue. They have a subscription model where the revenues are recognized ratably over the life of the contract. But the payments are all upfront. And we’re going to fair value that. And that amortization tells a lot, a bit shorter, that’s about a two to three years. Whereas the intangibles will go out over seven years. That said, we do think the best way to look at this business is more akin to a cash basis. And adjusting the results for the impacts of these two items, the deferred revenue and the amortization of the intangibles. And on that basis, it would be immediately accretive to earnings.
Robert Stallard:
Okay. Thanks, Toby.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen and Company. Please proceed.
Cai von Rumohr:
Yes. Thank you very much. So the competition claims that Germany wants to have 360-degree capability. In open architecture, neither of which Patriot provides. And yet you guys are the incumbent. Tell us about the factors you think are going to be important to Germany’s decision and when they might reach it.
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, I don’t know exactly how they’re going to make their decision. I do know that they will be making the decision in the next year. And what they are looking for is they need a strong system to provide deterrence. And so we believe Patriot provides that, number one. And two is we believe the system that we can get in their hands the soonest. In other words, we’re in production. We can deliver right out of the factory and [indiscernible] the quickest time possible. The other element is the fact that they have a lot of their already trained on using the Patriot. And so even though we’ve upgraded the Patriot, put in modern man stations, a lot of the maintenance and training is already behind them. So they already have that in place. So we think the Patriot provides the most economical but yet strongest deterrence capability for them moving forward.
Cai von Rumohr:
Okay, terrific. And then your R&D was up from 2% of sales to 2.7% of sales. Could you tell us where did you spend it, what did you spend it on and how much of that is covered by IR&D?
Thomas Kennedy:
Okay. So that is all IR&D, number one, I’ll answer that. But we’re continuing to invest in technologies. That’s been crucial to our recent competitive success. I’ll give you an example. On the GaN technology, we started investing in 10 years ago when folks thought you couldn’t make GaN work. And we continued to invest in over the years and essentially we proved them wrong, that it can work and it can provide a great capability. And that put us in a great position on multiple wins, AMDR, Next Generation Jammer, 3DELRR. And there’s actually a few radar competitions coming out now. So we do invest to essentially establish discriminators for us to go win in the future. And that’s where we’re putting our efforts moving forward. And areas - and this is actually part of our strategy is to invest in what we call new emerging areas. So we are investing in next generation radars, high energy lasers, hypersonics. In fact, we just recently won a major hypersonics contract from DARPA. It’s called the Tactical Boost Glide program. That was for the development and demonstration of technologies to enable air-launched, tactical range hypersonic boost glide systems. And so we’ve been investing in that area. And that gave us the technologies to go win this advanced DARPA program. We also were investing in undersea capabilities. We believe the undersea offers a lot of significant opportunities moving forward based on the arena of anti-access/area denial. EW, that’s part of our strategy to continue to invest in EW and grow our business in that area. That’s kind of a few of the areas that we’re investing in. We believe we have already or establishing discriminators in each of those areas and based on where the roadmap is for our customers. We believe that these are right places for us to invest in.
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. And Cai, this is Toby. I would just add to the level of spend of the 2.7%. That’s pretty much in line with what we talked about in the January call of 2.7%, 2.8% of revenue this year for the reasons Tom just described.
Cai von Rumohr:
Great. Thank you and congrats on the Patriot wins.
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland of Barclays. Please proceed.
Carter Copeland:
Hi. Yes. Hi, good morning, guys.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Carter. How are you doing today?
Carter Copeland:
Doing great. Great, thanks, Tom. So just a question. I wondered if you might expand a little bit more specifically on GaN and some of the prior comments about upgrades. And really, when you look at the approval of the exportability of that technology, can you talk to specifically what sort of upgrade opportunities that may enable and what sort of kind of size we should be thinking about those or timing? What does that mean for that franchise longer term?
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, I’ll start with the AMDR. We are working with the navy to ensure that the AMDR will be exportable to our coalition partners who use those types of radars for their ships. We are also - the 3DELRR program was a model program for OSD for exportability. And so we won that program. It is in protest right now but that program uses GaN. So that’s number two. We are also, and I mentioned in my script, that we are working on a 360 AESA radar for the Patriot. And that is a GaN based radar. And we are working to ensure that that is exportable also. So in terms of who would buy these systems, with Poland coming onboard, there are now 14 countries that have the Patriot system. And you said if you had to go off and you wanted to have an opportunity to replace those radars, the existing radars on those, it would be 200-plus radars. And that would be up for grabs to replace to more with these 360 AESA radars, our AESAs for Patriot. And this is, I think, a great opportunity for us taking forth these new advanced radar systems to both our domestic and international customers. But we see significant opportunities in the future for taking this GaN technology into the radars and into the international marketplace.
Carter Copeland:
How do you think about the timeline and the timing of those kinds of opportunities as you look across the base of Patriot customers? And when they get around to that kind of upgrade, is this a three- to five-year kind of opportunity for the market, the 200 radars? How do you think about that?
Thomas Kennedy:
I’ll only answer one. On the Patriot, we have customers knocking on our door today. So it’s a matter of getting to a development and then transition to production and then putting it forward. And we’re also working with our U.S. customer on that timing to ensure that we have essentially all the licenses and everything else to be able to do that. So I think bottom line, there is pent up demand for those AESA radars. And we’re looking to fill that demand.
Carter Copeland:
And just another one to switch gears quickly, I think at one point we were expecting a recompete of Warfighter FOCUS. Where does that stand these days in terms of an RFP on that and maybe just remind us of what to expect on that front?
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, right now, for those who don’t know, the Warfighter FOCUS is an IDIQ program that Raytheon runs for the United States Army. That is a program that we are actively engaging today. It’s running very well. And I think it’s serving the army and also the international customers very well. So I think they’re very pleased with it. We believe that that program will continue. The army is looking at some acquisition changes in terms of what’s the follow-on to Warfighter FOCUS. That has gone through several changes recently. And I don’t think right now has settled down in terms of what the final arrangements will be.
Carter Copeland:
Okay, so just stay tuned.
Thomas Kennedy:
I think stay tuned and - but in - and from Raytheon’s perspective, it’s met more stable work relative to Warfighter FOCUS since that change has not occurred.
Carter Copeland:
Great. Congrats on a big leap, guys.
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, thank you.
Toby O’Brien:
Thanks, Carter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Robert Spingarn:
Good morning.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Rob.
Robert Spingarn:
Hi, guys. Couple of questions, two different topics. The first is on the - Toby, on your sales guidance, which is essentially down 2% to flat at the ends - the range there, what are the relative growth rates you now see for domestic versus international within that?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, so for the total year, what we’d be looking at for domestic is to be down in the low single-digits. And for international, up in the low to mid single-digits.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. And it sounds like the international again may be a little backend weighted given the recent awards.
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, definitely --
Robert Spingarn:
Or the growth accelerates?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, you got that exactly right. I mean, I think if you want to think about the cadence throughout the year, and obviously with international growing versus domestic declining, we’d see second quarter sales flat to up from Q1 from a sequential point of view and then sequentially growth in the back half of the year. And it’s exactly as you said, Rob. It’s driven by the new awards from the end of 2014 plus what we’re seeing here in the first three-plus months of this year and their natural ramp as they start up.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay. And then just with respect to the comment on European demands stabilizing and growing here, is there any currency impact on margins that we should start to contemplate?
Thomas Kennedy:
So that question came up on a prior call. I’ll give you what we’re seeing. Number one is most of our business is tied to the U.S. dollar. For example, all the FMS contracts we had, the Foreign Military Sales contracts are all in U.S. dollars. And then a lot of our customers, especially in the Middle East, their currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar. So even on direct commercial sales there we don’t have any impact. And we do have two landed companies. We have Raytheon Australia and Raytheon Systems Limited. They tend to work with their own working capital and essentially our sales in British pound sterling and then the Raytheon Australia it’s the Australian dollar. They tend to work --
Robert Spingarn:
I was going to say, I understand that it’s conducted in U.S. dollars but to the extent that these guys are based for example in euros, the European guys, they’ve got to translate. So does that maybe adjust their demand, their pricing appetite?
Thomas Kennedy:
Toby is going to give you the exact numbers, right. Toby, why don’t you just give them the numbers?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes, so I think from a - the two type of potential exposures we have is around where we - if we have a mismatch between U.S. dollar and a different denominated currency. As Tom said, that’s very minimal because most of our contracts are matched to the dollar. In the cases when we have that, we hedge it using foreign exchange contracts. And that’s the little to no - minimal exposure there. And in the cases where we have these foreign entities like in the U.K. and Australia where they do operate in a non-U.S. dollar functional currency, again, they’re generally getting paid in that same currency. So in Australia, they operate in the Aussie dollar. They get paid from their customer in the Aussie dollar. And we do have some translation risk, right, when we convert those foreign denominated financial results back to U.S. dollars. But again, historically, that has been pretty minimal.
Robert Spingarn:
Okay, thank you. I’ll jump back in.
Thomas Kennedy:
Okay.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Hunter Keay:
Thanks, everybody. I appreciate it. A little bit more on IRAD, a follow-up maybe to Cai’s question, a little bit of a different angle, though. You guys said the long term IRAD should still be in the high 2% range of sales. If global defense budgets continue to improve, does that go higher or does it go lower? I mean, my gut would say it will go lower but threats are very dynamic. The competitive environment is still very difficult. So I would think there’d be some level of sort of elevated investment on an ongoing basis that may be needed. But assuming the backdrop of better defense spending on a global basis, where should that long term IRAD go?
Thomas Kennedy:
Only to kind of back you up into - and tying this to our strategy, so we go - often we look at our strategy, we look at what the demand needs are from the customers and then we go look at what gas we have in terms of technology that’s required to go fulfill them over a period of a three-year window, a five-year window and then a 10-year window. And then based on that, we look at what technologies need to be developed and then what we will look at in terms of funding those technologies and to be ready at the time that they need to be ready at for us to be competitive in the marketplace. And it’s all driven by the strategy and by what we - the capability needs of the customer. It’s not driven by sales and some exact percentage of sales. That’s just how we do it. Essentially, it’s a bottoms-up buildup based on the demand cycle from the customer and also what our technology gaps are.
Toby O’Brien:
And I’d just throw in there, and it plays exactly into what Tom was saying. When we make these decisions on how to invest, where and what level, it’s all with an eye towards returning value to shareholders, increasing value to shareholders, driving growth, profitable growth. So it’s a little difficult to generalize looking forward whether that relationship, that percentage would go up or down for all the previous reasons.
Hunter Keay:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot for that. And let’s talk about Next Gen Jammer for a minute, if you would. Can you help us understand how it’s going to kind of slew [ph] up over the long term and give us an idea how to think of some of the follow-on increments? What are some of the pacing items for those? What’s sort of the competitive set and maybe help us think about, in a best case scenario, the potential opportunity for you guys longer term? Thanks a lot.
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes. So, our Next Generation Jammer, for those who don’t know, that’s a electronic warfare - essentially, it’s a self-contained pod, generates its own power. That gets converted into electrical energy to drive jammers within the pod. There’s two of those pods per Growler. That’s the F-18G which is the electronic warfare platform for the United States Navy. And so we won a major contract for that a couple years back. And it actually uses a GaN technology. So there is a technology that we had invested in 10 years ago that helped us win that program. And we see that program having quite long legs. Number one, we’re going into the development phase now and then they’ll eventually get into transition to production and then enter production. As I mentioned, it’s on schedule. It’s on cost and it’s hitting all of its milestones. And we think that’s going to be a very successful franchise program for Raytheon in the future.
Hunter Keay:
Thank you.
Thomas Kennedy:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein of Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Sam Pearlstein:
Good morning.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Sam. How are you doing?
Sam Pearlstein:
Okay. Couple little questions. First is, why is cash flow from operations up only about $100 million when I thought the eBorders settlement was GBP150 million?
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, so the eBorders settlement, you got the number right, it’s about $226 million. But the payment came in on the first day of the second quarter.
Sam Pearlstein:
Right. But I’m just saying, for the full-year outlook, you’re only increasing $100 million.
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, not - yes, sure, Sam. So fist I’ll start and, as you said, we increased the year by $100 million. We’re also going up $100 million in the second quarter as part of that. It is attributable to the eBorders settlement. But it has been partially offset - this is getting at the crux of your question - by some changes in program milestone collections as a result of some later timing on awards within the year. So the cash isn’t gone. It’s just - it’s a timing issue for that $100 million, if you will, between 2015 and in ‘16. We do have a range of $300 million in our outlook or our guidance there. So our expectations are to be within this range. Overall, we continue to see strong operating cash flow in 2015. The range now expected to be between $2.4 billion and $2.7 billion. We do see still the majority of the cash flow being weighted in the second half of the year really driven by the timing of significant program milestones.
Sam Pearlstein:
Okay. That’s great. And then can you talk a little bit about the IDS segment, just looking at the margins this quarter and how do you get them to 50% this year? Are there other certain milestone of contractual resolutions or some of it is the direct foreign sale of the recent award, what is it that drives that margin up?
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, sure. So in Q1, as you pointed out, right, the margins were down. That was as expected. And consistent with what we said in January, that was driven by the mix due to - unfavorable mix due to the plan ramp-down on certain of our international Patriot programs. So looking forward, clearly, we see the margins at IDS improving primarily in the second half of the year. That overall business mix will improve just as you said, as these new international programs from the end of 2014 and the awards here in the early part of 2015 start to ramp up and move through the production cycle so that the mix gets more favorable, but not until the second half of the year.
Sam Pearlstein:
Okay. And if I can add one more. I just want to summarize in terms of some of the commentary about the acquisitions. Is it fair to say that we’ll see more balanced after the deployment in that $1 billion plus type of acquisitions from here on out now that Websense has been announced?
Thomas Kennedy:
As we sit today, and we’ll continue to look for valuated target acquisitions that do position the company for future growth. But we don’t see as I sit here today a large acquisition of the size of Websense. But there could potentially be some smaller acquisitions to fit some technology areas that we need to be successful in that market space.
Sam Pearlstein:
That’s great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Sterne Agee, CRT. Please proceed.
Peter Arment:
Yes, good morning, Tom and Toby.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning.
Peter Arment:
A question on - I guess a clarification back to Rob’s comment on kind of domestic versus international. Clarification, Toby, on you said the domestic being down a little bit, low single-digit, international, up. Does that continue at that same pace in the ’16 or do we see domestic improve kind of given Tom’s comments about the ’16 budget?
Toby O’Brien:
Yes. So let me answer it this way. Clearly, with the awards that we’ve seen, again, coming out of the end of last year and into ’14, we’d expect to see strong performance into ’16 on the international front. On the domestic side of it, Todd, back to the comments that Tom made earlier relative to where the domestic budgets are going, we’d probably see our domestic profile start to flatten out towards the end of the year. And we could start to see some improvement going forward.
Peter Arment:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then just lastly - and congratulations on all these Patriot wins. Tom, you mentioned kind of 14 countries that now they’re deployed. I mean how do we think about that long-term? I mean we ask this I think every quarter about what inning are we in in terms of missile defense orders out in the Middle East and Asia but how do we think about the opportunity longer term outside of kind of you just mentioned, Poland, Germany, et cetera?
Thomas Kennedy:
So outside of the bringing on a whole brand new country like we’ve done with Poland, we hope to do with Germany, that we did do with Qatar, there are also the upgrade capabilities with each of the partner countries that have the Patriot system. And right now we’ve been doing something called Configuration-3 plus. You may have heard us talk about them on some of the calls. That’s a major upgrade to the Patriot system that we’re off and working with the Archon. And as of today, there is 72 fire units that are still there for upgrade potential. And we are working with those customers to upgrade those systems. And then I also mentioned previously the upgrade for the 360 AESA radar. That will be a new upgrade for all the Patriot systems. And there’s over 200 of those radars to be upgraded. So I think the way of looking at it is that these 14 countries are a market of surrounded around Patriot. And so we are working with those customers to continually to upgrade those systems to counter the evolving threat. So there’s a base program that the software upgrades and other things as the threat changes. And that we work across those countries. And then also as new technology comes on board to improve the capability of the system, we then insert that technology across those 14 countries’ Patriot systems. So essentially, it’s a market on its own that we look to continually to upgrade and provide a support activity. So it’s a great franchise business. And it also does, for the customers, it allows them to share in the cost for any software upgrades for the evolving threat and then also to share in the cost of the development of new technology. So it’s a great win-win situation for both sides.
Peter Arment:
That’s great color. Thanks, Tom.
Toby O’Brien:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski of Drexel Hamilton. Please proceed.
Pete Skibitski:
Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Pete. How are you doing?
Pete Skibitski:
Good, good. Hey, on Poland Patriots, I was wondering if you could give us some more color on maybe ballpark some of the characteristics of the contract. There’s a lot of numbers falling out there. Some of them are talking about more than $5 billion. Can you give us a sense of how many batteries it’s going to be maybe ballpark the size and length and then when you talk about the 2016 booking, are you talking early in the year or later in the year?
Thomas Kennedy:
So just real quick. So right as of today, actually Tuesday, we were down - we were selected by Poland to provide the Patriot solution for their integrated air and missile defense system. And then as part of that activity, we have provided various, I would call it options, for the Polish government, variants of Patriot and quantities of fire units and how to set them up in their country. So we have been working with them. But now some additional work is required to move forward to definitize what that exact configuration will be for the Polish government. As part of that effort, we also have been working with Polish industry. We have 25 plus agreements with Polish industry in terms of doing coproduction and potential codevelopment activities all in support of the Patriot system. So the bottom line is we’ll be in negotiations with the Polish government to act to define exactly what this configuration is. And as we get that information and get more clarity on that, we’ll be providing that to you guys to ensure you understand where that program is going.
Toby O’Brien:
And I think, Pete, given all that Tom said, while we can’t exactly predict when the award would come, think back out of 2016 because there is some work to be done to work through all those steps.
Pete Skibitski:
Okay. I got it. I got it. And then just on the streak [ph] you guys on with Patriot, is it fair to say that the IDS being your highest margin business that that maybe has the best kind of midrange growth outlook for the firm?
Thomas Kennedy:
I’ll take it out first and then I’ll let Toby come in and he can put some numbers on some things. But the bottom line is in IDS, with all these Patriots coming in, in some cases bumper-to-bumper and some case coming in on top of each other. What that’s doing and that’s allowing us to stack all this up in the factory to gain significant, I would call, production efficiencies and getting IDS margins back to what we’ve traditionally have had in that business. So essentially, it’s replenishing the backlog for that factory and allowing us to gain those efficiencies as you move forward. That’s a good news on IDS. But don’t forget, IDS is also once a major program. For example, the air and missile defense radar program that they have that are off and running. They also won the 3DELRR, which is in protest. So in addition to the Patriot franchise getting reinvented to a certain extent and all the upgrade potential for it, they also have some brand new franchises that are on the horizon that they have in hand. And that the AMDR is in development. That’s going to be transitioning into production. That’s going to go into both the U.S. domestic and also international coalition partners. And then we have the 3DELRR which is in protest right now. But when that comes out of protest, assuming Raytheon is on the right side of that, that is another program that has a significant, actually was set up by OST to be an international program on day one. So a brand new franchise for them there. So bottom line is IDS is much more than just Patriot moving forward. And I have that same - I can give you that same play for each of the other businesses. All the businesses are coming up with I would call it new franchises. And they’re also reinventing their existing franchises. We talked about AMRAAM. AMRAAM has gone through a whole new upgrade program. It’s called the AIM-120D. It’s a brand new missile. Great capabilities. And so it’s essentially been reinvented. And just in the last year, over a $1 billion worth of AMRAAM orders. So this is going on all throughout the company across all our product lines and across all our pursuits.
Toby O’Brien:
And I would - Pete, I’d just add that specific to IDS when we talk about mix, that’s probably the one business within the company that can have the biggest swing or the most impact because of mix, in part, given the nature of the beast with the large $1 billion plus contracts that drive that within IDS. So that combined with loading up the factory here, does give us confidence that we will be seeing improvement over time in the IDS margin as we had previously talked about.
Pete Skibitski:
That’s great. Thanks, guys.
Thomas Kennedy:
Thank you.
Todd Ernst:
All right. Chantilly, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Okay. Your final question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Sanford Bernstein. Please proceed.
Doug Harned:
Good morning. Thank you.
Thomas Kennedy:
Good morning, Doug. How are you doing today?
Doug Harned:
Good, good. I wanted to ask on IDS because if we go back historically, the business could be doing 16%, even 17% type margins. So I know today, on the positive side, you’ve got more international work, higher percentage of that there, which should be good. And the negative side in the near-term, a lot of new programs, which you probably are looking at lower margin. When you talk about what the percentage of international is and then can we expect this to go back over time to those 16%, 17% type margin levels that we used to see?
Thomas Kennedy:
So, Doug, you’re asking a very interesting question to two individuals who used to actually run that business. I don’t know if you remember that or not. But we have a deep domain understanding of what it takes to drive the margins in that business. So Toby is going to walk you through this. And you couldn’t have asked the two people that are more familiar with our business.
Toby O’Brien:
So IDS does have the largest international content of our four businesses. It has been running close to about 50%, 50-50 domestic-international. And obviously that mix in and of itself, putting time in the side, does help to drive the margin profile. As you pointed out, we have run going back last year 16%; in 2013, a little over 17%. And depending upon the timing of some of these other programs that you alluded to, which they are development programs, they are being booked at lower margins, things like AMDR. Tom mentioned 3DELRR. As those move ultimately through production, they’ll help lift the margin. But it is possible to see margins start overtime. But it will take a couple of years once this backlog really gets into kind of full steam on this international Patriot awards before we would potentially see them climbing back up to those past historical levels.
Thomas Kennedy:
I think, Doug, one thing that really has - two guys that run that business, very excited about what we’re seeing is the, I would call it the bumper-to-bumper work, and we mentioned just over the last 18 months close to $7 billion worth of new bookings. And that doesn’t include Poland. And if you lay in or layer in Poland on top of these others, that you have essentially a full factory going up almost to 2022. So that allows us to really work the efficiencies, productivity, really allows us to work with our suppliers across the board, gives us levers that you don’t have when you just have one contract. And so we’re very upbeat about IDS here over the next several year. Both and I will be definitely probing to ensure that they meet our expectations. Having run the business, we know which levers they are. And if they don’t have their hands on those levers, we’ll make sure those hands get on those levers very quickly.
Doug Harned:
And then shifting gears a little bit. Two technologies that have become an increasingly high priority in the Pentagon have been directed energy weapons and rail guns, two things that you all have been working on for quite a few years. Could you talk about the outlook for those technologies? Are these something that you see - and what timeframe contributing materially to your revenues?
Thomas Kennedy:
Well, number one is we’re - you’re absolutely correct. We have been investing in these technologies for many years, especially the high energy laser. We see that as core to our business. We have great domain expertise in that area. We believe we have a great new technology in that area that will allow us to gain market share. We are working with the U.S. government on several programs relative to high energy lasers. I think the bottom line is going to be, Doug, is when is the U.S. government ready to move forward into a major EMD program on one of these systems. The power levels have to get up to be something that you’d actually want to, I would call it, put into service. And the technology that we have allows us to get to those power levels. But again, you do need in this marketplace, you need essentially a customer sponsor who’s willing to work with you and take you into EMD program and then transition the production also to go through all the testing required to get one of these systems into the hands of our war fighters. But I think we’re in the cost of moving in that direction.
Doug Harned:
But it sounds like it’s a few years off. Is that --
Thomas Kennedy:
Yes, a few years off I would say. But we’re not talking decades.
Doug Harned:
Okay. Thank you.
Thomas Kennedy:
Okay.
Todd Ernst:
All right. We’re going to have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speak with you again on our second quarter conference call on July. Chantilly.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Todd B. Ernst - Former Vice President of Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David C. Wajsgras - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President Toby O'Brien -
Analysts:
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research, LLC Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Taheesha, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd B. Ernst:
Thank you, Taheesha. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter conference call. There is also -- we announced this morning the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and the printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Wajsgras, our Chief Financial Officer; and Toby O'Brien, who will formally take over as CFO on March 2 of this year. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Dave and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly the comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Raytheon concluded 2014 with a strong fourth quarter, driven by global demand for advanced technologies and solid executions across the company. Bookings were better than expected at $7.1 billion, yielding a book-to-bill ratio of 1.16 for Q4. Sales were up nearly 5% in the quarter as both domestic and international sales increased, and cash flow and margins were strong as well. These results were made possible by the dedicated efforts of the entire Raytheon team and I want to thank everyone on the team for the strong quarter and solid year. As I look back on 2014, I'm pleased with our overall performance. We had a book-to-bill ratio of 1.05 for the year. Bookings of $24.1 billion exceeded the high end of our expectations. The company capitalized on key domestic and international opportunities in missile defense, electronic warfare, cybersecurity, C4ISR and training. This highlights our continued alignment with our customers' priorities and our strong competitive position. Furthermore, we're especially proud that we delivered better-than-expected bookings performance, even as one of our anticipated large international Patriot awards moved into the first quarter of 2015. Operationally, we continue to focus on reducing costs, improving affordability and delivering strong returns, while at the same time, we follow through on our commitment to invest in our future. As we look forward to 2015, we expect to continue to perform well. Dave will walk you through our 2015 guidance in a few minutes. Demand from our broad base of customers continues to drive growth in our international business. Over the past few months, I continue to receive feedback from our international customers and investing in national security remains a top priority, given the global threat environment, and you can see this in both our fourth quarter and full year results. Full year 2014 international bookings were up 27% over 2013 and were 35% of the total company bookings. I would note that our international book-to-bill ratio for the year was 1.28 and at 4 -- at the fourth quarter, it was 2.0. So we finished the year with very solid international bookings. We saw strong demand across our international portfolio during the year, including bookings from Qatar for Patriot and an air defense operating center; Kuwait for Patriot fire units; Canada for the North Warning System; several countries for AMRAAM; South Korea for GEM-T missiles and the Australia for the Air Warfare Destroyer, among a host of others. At the end of Q4, international backlog increased to 40% of our total backlog. Our domestic bookings in 2014 also improved over 2013. We received key awards in training, SM-3, AMRAAM, Tomahawk and the FAA STARS program. We also closed on a key competitive awards, including the family of advanced beyond line of sight terminal. And last summer, we also had successful test of the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle that allows us to move forward on this important program that protects the homeland. We saw strong bookings in our classified business, which includes both domestic and international, and our overall classified bookings increased by 29% in 2014. We feel good about the outlook for 2015 and we expect another year with a book-to-bill ratio above 1. International bookings are expected to continue to be strong, representing approximately 1/3 of our total 2015 bookings, driven by opportunities from a broad base of global customers and across a wide range of our products and solutions, including missiles, tactical radars and Command and Control systems. In addition, demand for the proven Patriot systems air and missile defense capability continues. New opportunities in Asia and the Middle East as well as competitive awards in Europe continue to develop. As I just mentioned, we are close to finalizing a $2 billion Patriot order from an international customer in Q1. We also expect to conclude negotiations on a Patriot upgrade program in South Korea within the next 6 to 9 months. Keep in mind the GEM-T missile upgrade awarded to us in Q3 of 2014 is a precursor for Korea's expected follow-on hardware upgrade to Configuration-3 plus. In Europe, Poland is expected to make the final down select for their medium-range integrated air and missile defense competition by the end of this year. Patriot is 1 of 2 systems in the final round of the competition. From a domestic perspective, the final agreement on the fiscal year 2015 DoD base budget was reached in December. Modernization accounts came in several billion dollars higher than requested, yielding funding increases for several Raytheon programs. We expect the Administration to submit its fiscal year 2016 defense budget request next week. While we won't speculate on what the final funding level for DoD will be in fiscal year 2016, we will point out that even if the Budget Control Act caps are not raised at all, DoD base budget funding will be several billion dollars higher in fiscal year 2016 than fiscal year 2015. While the domestic market is still constrained, the trajectory of the DoD base budget is finally starting to trend upwards. We see considerable opportunities in the domestic market. The growing sophistication of the threat to our national security is creating demand for new innovative solutions. As a result, we are investing more to develop the discriminating technologies and differentiated capabilities that will enable us to provide our customers what they need in areas such as missile defense, electronic warfare, high-energy lasers, advanced propulsion and undersea sensors. These investments will position us to capture future franchise programs and lay the foundation for growth. Another area where we see continually evolving a pervasive threat is in cyber. In fact, we've seen a nomenclature change for certain areas of the industry. Whereas C3ISR expanded to C4ISR, this is now evolving to C5ISR where the latest C stands for cyber. Consistent with this, many of our customers are turning to us to incorporate the latest cyber protection into their networks and systems so that they are more secure. As always, we stand ready to help our global customers with our advanced cyber capabilities. At the end of the last decade, we began adding to our organic cyber capabilities through acquisitions and we've made a number of cyber-related acquisitions since then, positioning us as a technology leader in this growing market. Our latest cyber-related acquisition was Blackbird technologies, which we completed in the fourth quarter. Blackbird not only adds unique cyber and other capabilities but also expands key market channels in the special operations and Intel markets for Raytheon. It is a great fit and we welcome their employees to the Raytheon team. One of the key strengths of Raytheon is our ongoing commitment to our core values and in 2014, we were recognized for our achievements in the area of ethics and integrity, health and safety and sustainability. We were awarded the 2014 corporate leadership award by Transparency International-USA for our commitment to shape initiatives that promote high business standards, transparency and anticorruption in the U.S. and internationally. We achieved the best safety record in our history, significantly reducing both lost workdays and recordable injuries. We received the ENERGY STAR Partner award for an EPA and have been recognized as one of the top green companies in America for our strong greenhouse gas reduction program and sound energy practices. We were also recognized as one of the 100 best corporate citizens by Corporate Responsibility magazine. Our goal is to continue to build on these successes. Before wrapping up, I'd like to highlight another significant attribute that we pride ourselves on here at Raytheon
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the fourth quarter and full year results, then I'll discuss our outlook for 2015 and after that, we'll open up the call for questions. So during my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning, which are posted on the Raytheon website. Okay, if everyone could please move to Page 3. We delivered solid results in both the quarter and the full year. Fourth quarter operating margin was 14.1% and on an adjusted basis was 13%. For the full year, operating margin was 13.9% and 12.7% on an adjusted basis. Our fourth quarter EPS from continuing operations was $1.86 and on an adjusted basis, was $1.71. For the full year, EPS from continuing operations was $6.97 and our adjusted EPS was $6.12. Our sales for the quarter were $6.1 billion and $22.8 billion for the year. We also generated strong operating cash flow of over $825 million for the quarter and $2.1 billion for the year, after a $600 million pretax discretionary pension contribution, which was not in our prior guidance. Additionally, the company repurchased 7.7 million shares of common stock for approximately $750 million in 2014. The company ended the year with a strong balance sheet and net debt of $611 million. Also, as previously announced, the company acquired Blackbird technologies in the fourth quarter for approximately $425 million. If you turn to Page 4, let me go through some of the details of our fourth quarter and full year results. We had strong bookings of $7.1 billion in the quarter and $24.1 billion for the full year, resulting in a year-end backlog of $33.6 billion. Our book-to-bill ratio in the quarter was 1.16 and 1.05 for the year, and the company ended 2014 with a funded backlog of $23.1 billion. For the quarter, international orders represented 50% of our total company bookings and for the full year, was 35% of total bookings. At the end of 2014, approximately 40% of our total backlog was international. Turning now to Page 5. We had fourth quarter sales of $6.1 billion, up 5% over the same period in 2013 and again, was consistent with our expectations. So looking at the businesses, all had higher sales than the same period last year. Net sales at IDS were $1.6 billion in the quarter. Compared to last year's fourth quarter, the increase was primarily due to higher sales on international Patriot programs. IIS net sales of $1.5 billion in the quarter were up from the same period last year, primarily due to higher volume on classified programs. Missile Systems had fourth quarter 2014 net sales of $1.7 billion, up 5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The increase was primarily due to higher sales on AMRAAM and evolved Sea Sparrow missile programs. And SAS had net sales of $1.7 billion in Q4, higher than the comparable period last year, primarily due to increased sales on an Electronic Warfare systems program. For the year, sales were $22.8 billion, down 3.7%, again, consistent with our expectations. International sales growth partially offset a decline in domestic sales. So moving ahead to Page 6, we delivered solid operational performance in the quarter and for the full year. Looking at business margins in the quarter, at IDS, IIS and missiles, margins were essentially in-line with or better than last year. In the fourth quarter 2014, IDS achieved some important program milestones and I did briefly discuss this on the call in October. And at SAS, fourth quarter 2013 benefited from the timing of profit adjustments. Said another way, SAS had a tough comparison. Also, you may recall that this business had strong third quarter margins in 2014, driven by the timing of performance that we had previously expected in the fourth quarter. It's worth noting that at IDS, IIS and SAS, margins all exceed the guidance range that we provided back in October. Missile Systems did come in slightly below our guidance, driven by program mix. So on Page 7, you'll see the both the fourth quarter and full year EPS. In the fourth quarter 2014, our EPS was $1.86 and for the full year was $6.97. And on an adjusted basis, was $1.71 in the fourth quarter and $6.12 for the full year. EPS for the quarter was strong and included the extension of the R&D tax credit, which was not in our prior guidance. As I previously mentioned, the company generated strong operating cash flow of $2.1 billion in 2014. Again, this includes the $600 million pretax or $400 million after tax discretionary pension contribution, which was also not in our prior guidance. Excluding the net discretionary cash contribution, our operating cash flow in 2014 would have been $2.5 billion. It's worth noting that on this basis, we exceeded the guidance that we provided you in October due to the timing of collections. Moving on to the 2015 guidance on Page 8. We see sales in the range of $22.3 billion to $22.8 billion, flat to slightly down from 2014. As for pension, we see the 2015 FAS/CAS adjustment at a positive $197 million, which I'll further discuss in just a minute. We expect net interest expense to be between $225 million to $235 million. We see our average diluted shares outstanding to be between $305 million and $307 million on a full year basis. As for our effective tax rate, we expect it to be approximately 27.5%. Our 2015 tax rate is higher than 2014, primarily due to the lapse of the R&D tax credit, which, again, is not included in our 2015 guidance. If the R&D tax credit is extended, it would favorably impact the effective tax rate by about 110 basis points and our EPS by approximately $0.10. As a reminder, we had an $83 million foreign tax credit in the first quarter of 2014, which also impacted the effective tax rate. And for 2015, we are anticipating a non-cash $88 million tax settlement in the second quarter. In 2015, we show our EPS to be in the range of $6.20 to $6.35 and our adjusted EPS to be in the range of $5.49 to $5.64. Our operating cash flow guidance for 2015 is expected to increase to between $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion. Before moving to Page 9, I want to mention that we expect the 2015 book-to-bill ratio to be between 1.0x and 1.05x, driven by continued demand from a broad base of domestic and international customers. And we, again, expect stronger bookings in the second half of this year similar to both 2013 and 2014. So if you move to Page 9. Here, we provided our initial 2015 guidance by business. Consistent with our prior comments, we expect 2015 adjusted margins to continue to be solid in the 12.1% to 12.3% range. Our margins for 2015 will be impacted by a change in program mix as well as higher investments in technology, with the objective of returning to top line growth. The investments we've made in GaN and cyber are paying off in significant ways today. We fully expect these new investments in radars, directed energy, EW and advanced propulsion to lay the foundation for growth over the next few years. At IDS, we see margins in the 15.1% to 15.3% range. The change from 2014 is driven by mix, most notably, the planned completion of some of our international Patriot programs. And in 2015, we are ramping up on several new programs, including Qatar Patriot and the new international Patriot award expected in Q1. As you know, we typically see lower margins at the inception of longer duration programs, which can improve over time as we retire risks and drive operational improvements. Longer-term, we see IDS margins improving after 2015 as the overall business mix improves and as these new large international programs progress through the production cycle. Additionally, you should note that we expect IIS margins of 7.4% to 7.6% to be impacted by approximately 60 basis points due to the Blackbird Technologies acquisition related costs. Excluding these, IIS margins would be in the range of 8% to 8.2%. SAS margins are expected to be down, driven by mix from lower volume as a result of completing some international programs as well as from higher business investments in 2015. Looking ahead, from a company level perspective, as domestic development programs transition to production and our international programs mature, we do see opportunity to improve margins in 2016 and beyond. If you'd now turn to Page 10. We've provided you with our 2015 outlook by quarter. You'll notice the sales ramp throughout the year. In addition, the second quarter EPS is favorably impacted due to the previously mentioned non-cash $88 million tax settlement. And finally, on Page 11. As we've done in the past, we provided a summary of the financial impact from pensions in 2014 as well as the projected 2015 through 2017 impact, holding all assumptions constant. As I mentioned earlier, we see the 2015 FAS/CAS adjustment at a positive $197 million, which reflects our investment returns in 2014 of over 6% on our U.S. pension assets and the December 31 discount rate of 4.1%. The discount rate is down 100 basis points from last year. Further, we reduced our long-term return on asset assumptions from 8.75% to 8% due to a change in the allocation of our planned assets and related investment strategies. Taken together, these result in a lower favorable FAS/CAS pension impact in 2015 compared to '14. Looking beyond 2015, it's important to keep in mind for each 25 basis point change in the discount rate, a result of $65 million to $75 million change in FAS/CAS takes place. Lastly, required pension contributions are decreasing in the near term as CAS recovery is increasing. This has a favorable impact on our pretax net cash flow over the forecast horizon. Before concluding, I would also like to take this opportunity to congratulate Toby on his promotion. I've worked with Toby for 9 years and I can tell you that he understands Raytheon, has a strong network and is well respected across the entire company. He has a deep understanding of finance, the industry and our customers and he also has a strong commercial background, having been the CFO of Raytheon Aircraft for close to 5 years. His extensive and broad background provides a strong foundation for his and Raytheon's future success. Now on a personal note, I would like to mention that it's been great to work with all of you since joining Raytheon, and I'm looking very forward to my new role. I'm sure I'll see you at future Raytheon events. Let me conclude by saying that in 2014, Raytheon, again, delivered solid operating performance with bookings, margins, earnings and operating cash flow, all on or ahead of expectations. Book-to-bill was strong and our international business continues to grow. We have a strong balance sheet which gives us substantial flexibility and options to continue to drive shareholder value. With that, we'll open up the call to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from the line of Doug Harned from Sanford Bernstein.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
I want to make sure I understand the bookings and backlog trajectory better. And you booked $24 billion in '14, that's up from the prior year, and your book-to-bill is above 1, yet your backlog declined slightly. Can you connect those 2 so I can understand why -- how that decline happened despite the good book-to-bill?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, sure. This is Dave. Our book-to-bill in 2014 was 1.05, as you just mentioned. With that said, we did have a little over $1 billion in backlog adjustments, which was in line with the adjustments we've had over a number of years historically. And just to be clear, backlog adjustments reflect several items including currency fluctuations, under runs on completed cost type contracts and scope changes, including scope reduction on contracts and finally, contract terminations. I hope that helps.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Yes, it does. And what I'm just trying to understand is you mentioned some of the areas that you're investing in and so -- to lead to top line growth but when you look at your guidance for next year, you've got a lower revenue number. And if we come in with a book-to-bill again like this and -- what I'm worried about is that you have a trajectory with backlog may continue to decline, and I'm trying to understand when we should expect to see that growth in the top line.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So Doug, for next year, we see sales essentially in line with 2014, flat to maybe down 2%. As you look beyond the 2015 time frame, we do expect to return to growth in '16 and beyond. And importantly, again, we do see very strong bookings, both domestically and internationally, again, in 2015 that we saw in '14.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And Doug, just one last one there, in 2016, we'll have ramped up on 2 major new Patriot programs, Qatar and the other one that will be coming in this quarter, and so that will generate significant revenue growth for 2016.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
But what I'm trying to understand on that is that the international -- a lot of the international orders, as you ramp down, say, on U.A.E, you ramp up on Qatar and others, how do you see that ebb and flow? Because you also have some coming down at the same time and it's quite difficult to track how each of these sort of adds and subtracts from your, I guess, top line.
David C. Wajsgras:
So Doug, let me try to add something here. So you'll recall, there was a fairly significant reduction in the DoD budget as we entered into the period of sequestration. That impacted the entire industry and Raytheon was not immune from that reduction. So what happened a few years back is now making its way through the backlog and through the sales line. That's partially offset over the last few years by the strength of our international bookings and our international growth. So as we look forward, what happened from 2012 to '13 is now in the rearview mirror from an overall financial performance standpoint. And again, we do expect to return to growth beyond '15.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
So does this mean that your expectations for your U.S. defense revenues, you're expecting that to stabilize, which would make the international contributions more positive and allow you to grow? Is that fair?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, Doug. I think you hit the nail right on the head. The bottom line is, is that the defense budget, even with the BCA restrictions in caps, does start to increase in 2016 and beyond. And so our domestic business will start to trend up at that point but at the same time, we have a very, very strong backlog on the international, which we'll also be driving forward in terms of revenue. So we think we see 2016 as a year that we start ticking up.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, can you talk a little bit about the cash flow? If I just look year-over-year, you talked about a $900 million less contribution for pension but you don't see operating cash flow go up anywhere near that. So can you just talk about some of the moving pieces as to -- cash taxes and others as to why you're not seeing as big of an increase without the pension contribution?
David C. Wajsgras:
So Sam, I was literally 100% certain you were going to ask me that question. So let me try to summarize it for you. In 2014, we had 2 items that impacted cash flow at the end of the year. We had the discretionary pension contribution of $400 million on a net basis, and we also saw some year-end collections in Q4 that we had expected in the first quarter of 2015, that's between roughly $100 million and $150 million. So when you normalize for these 2 items, 2014, we did achieve the high end of our guidance at roughly $2,350,000,000. And for 2015, adjusting for the earlier collections, the range would be $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion. So if you look at this year-over-year on a normalized basis, 2015 is roughly $300 million to $400 million higher than '14 at the high end of the range. So I hope that clarifies it for you. I tried to give you some numbers as I was walking through this.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Yes. And then can you give an update just on the GPS OCX program just because there was a lot of press about overruns there? I'm trying to just square that as to is that any impact in why IIS margins, even without the Blackbird, are still showing a decline next year or in '15?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Let me attack that one. On the GPS OCX program, there were some issues, we have worked with the Air Force on those. It is a very complex program, technology advanced. Number one, it is a cost-plus program, development program, and it is revolutionary relative to adding information insurance capability to a very large ground station for the GPS system. And we have been working with the Air Force on that program, we believe that we have turned the corner on that program moving forward, and we don't see any impact in this year or in the out years relative to that program.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Howard Rubel from Jefferies.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Two questions. Nice to -- good luck, Toby.
Toby O'Brien:
Thanks, Howard.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
But first is if we look across the board, although you set us up, Dave, a little bit for lower margins and discussed mix, it still seems as if there's a change in the trajectory of the business. And is this as much a setup for what you said is well, we beat our margins from our initial guidance? Or in fact, is there a business change?
David C. Wajsgras:
No. So Howard, I appreciate you asking that question. So let me start out by saying at the end of last year, when Tom and I participated at the Crédit Suisse conference, we did talk about adjusted margins in 2015 being in sort of the lower 12% range. So again, we're projecting 12.1% to 12.3%. Now there's a number of areas that are important to mention here. Firstly, there is the program mix, particularly at IDS. And we talked about the cadence of the longer duration production programs coming down in '15 as we start out on the new programs that we were recently awarded and fully expect to be awarded in the first quarter and throughout the year. Secondly and maybe more importantly, we are increasing our spend in IRAD and program investments. Last -- we closed out the year last year with IRAD at just a little over 2% of sales. And as we look at 2015, we expect it to be closer to 3% of sales and that is -- those are important technology investments that Tom addressed earlier that position us well for both the top line and the bottom line growth. And then lastly, we mentioned this a little earlier as well, IIS, the acquisition of Blackbird Technologies, from an IIS standpoint, there's about 60 basis points of impact from the amortization of acquisition cost through intangibles. And at the company level, that's about 15 to 20 basis points. Now what I just went through, there is an offset there. There continues to be higher productivity as a result of the focused efforts throughout the company. But when you stand back and look at this, 2015 is a very strong year and positions us well for 2016 and beyond.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then I'm going to switch for a moment. And Tom, I know you've been talking about a large $2 billion order for some time and it's always hard to pin down a date. Could you elaborate a little bit on what gives you increased confidence that we'll see it in this first quarter?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes. So last year, we had 2 big international awards that we were working to bring in. One of them, we did, which was Qatar for about $2.4 billion that came in December. This other one did slip into the first quarter and we are very close to closing on that deal. Based on the customer schedule, this one will close in this quarter, I'm highly confident of that. And that's about a $2 billion Patriot order. What's significant here, Howard, is both the Qatar and this order will be going on at the same time. So it's definitely going to give us an economic order quantity capability in terms of being able to get the best material buys for those programs. And also we'll definitely be turning the factory 3 shifts on those 2 programs over here for the next 3 to 4 years. So they are very important and are back-to-back, which is good for us.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Robert Stallard from Royal Bank of Canada.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, we can't let you go without a question about pension.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, we had a feeling that was coming as well.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
I thought really, when you mentioned the discount rate had changed but also I was wondering if you could comment on how your rate of return ended up for 2014 relative to what you told us in Q3. And also, what's prompted you in this 3 months' period to change your assumed rate of return.
David C. Wajsgras:
Sure, yes. We ended the year with a little over 6% actual return on our pension assets in '14. And looking ahead, every year, we evaluate our long-term return on asset assumptions. So in the fourth quarter of '14, we did reduce our long-term target allocation for equities and increased our target allocation for fixed income, and that's principally in order to reduce our overall exposure to equity volatility going forward. The change in asset allocation resulted in a reduction of our long-term ROA assumption of about 75 basis points, and that's basically, in a nutshell, how we see things going forward.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then as a follow-up on the guidance. I notice you've increased your interest expense expectations. Can you give us an idea of what's behind that ? I mean, are you anticipating taking on more debt? Or is your cost of debt going higher?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, you'll recall that we issued $600 million of debt in Q4. $300 million in 10s and $300 million in 30s. Average cost was around 4% and that's what you're seeing impact interest expense in 2015. It's all fixed rate, that's an important thing to note. It's all fixed rate.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
So you're not anticipating any additional debt movement beyond what's the announcement?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, look, we're always looking at our capital structure to optimize the financial foundation of the company. Standing back, we still have a very strong A- rating. We've talked about this in the past. We don't see ourselves going lower than BBB+. I think I mentioned that exactly on the third quarter call. So we could, in the future, but I'm not signaling anything. We have a very strong balance sheet and there is room to use the balance sheet from a shareholder perspective and from other perspectives. It's just a very solid foundation.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research:
A question, Dave. The margins were down in '14, you're projecting them down in '15 again and then maybe a little bit better in '16. I mean, how do you look at what normalized margin should be? I mean, obviously, the investments you're making are somewhat discretionary. So I just kind of see if you have a -- what your answer to that might be.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. Thanks, George. So let me start by saying our objective is to improve and grow earnings through both top line and margin improvement. So the company's focused on program execution, on cost reduction and importantly, margin performance and we've talked about this before. If you look at the company, changes in mix, the timing of program completions and program starts, all impact margin. In 2015, and I mentioned this earlier, we're making important technology investments that drive future growth in margin expansion. After 2015, we do see opportunity for margins to increase on an adjusted basis, not from only a FAS/CAS basis. And it's driven by a number of different initiatives, in addition to the overall business mix improving over time. Tom and I both talked about strategic sourcing, facility optimization, expanding what we call our Global Business Services, which is our shared service initiative internally. So when you look at all this together, I think you framed it correctly. We do see growing margins in 2016 and beyond. But at this point, we're not going to suggest a target margin profile for the company.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research:
Okay. And one different one, Dave. I don't want to disappoint you because you figured I'd probably ask this as well. How much was international sales up versus domestic down?
David C. Wajsgras:
International sales in 2014 were up about 1.5% and domestic was down about 5.5%.
George D. Shapiro - Shapiro Research:
And how about Q4?
David C. Wajsgras:
In Q4, I'm glad you asked that, George. International was up by about 6% and domestic was up over 4%.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research, LLC:
I appreciate all the commentary on margins. I'm going to go there again, particularly sort of at IDS. You obviously gave great color on sort of the ramping work in Patriot and all that, but is there something maybe going on? We've obviously always held the belief that international is much more profitable than domestic, which, of course, it still is and will be going forward. But is there anything that you're seeing structurally, particularly maybe in the FMS arena that's causing some degree of pressure on the international margin side, maybe it's the bidding environment getting a little more aggressive? Is it -- should we think of that sort of traditional gap between international and domestic holding as we look out over the next couple of years? Or might we see some compression on some of the international margin side?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So Hunter, I think it's probably best to let Toby O'Brien handle that question since he just spent 5 or 6 years at the business. So Toby, go ahead.
Toby O'Brien:
Sure, Dave. And Hunter, Dave hit some of this in his comments and I'll just try to add a little bit of color to that. I do have a good handle on the business, having been there for about 6 years, as Dave said, and know what drives it. From a big picture point of view, I can tell you it remains a very solid business. There are many things that can impact margins but really, the story with IDS margins in 2015 is driven by mix, program mix and timing. And I think the thing to understand is that we've seen this before a few years ago, where IDS margins did fluctuate year-over-year and then they did come back, okay? And at that point in time, it was the same thing, it was a combination of the mix and the timing related to the program completions and program startups, the same things that are impacting us here in 2015. So this is not a new phenomenon. We don't see any other pressures on the business related to your other question. And to reinforce what Dave said, we would expect to see the margin profile at IDS to improve after 2015 as the mix improves. And these awards that we've talked about, Qatar and the other one that we expect here in the first quarter that Tom talked about, as they move through their production cycle.
Hunter K. Keay - Wolfe Research, LLC:
And another one on -- maybe this is sort of a backdoor M&A question, but you talked obviously, about even a sequestration comes back into play, you're going to see a higher baseline budget going forward. But obviously, the investment accounts are going to be under a little bit more pressure. Do you guys see yourselves trying to move into sort of getting a bigger chunk of say, the O&M budget to generally [ph] sort of try to offset a little bit of incremental revenue headwinds that you might see in some procurement in R&D accounts?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Well I think bottom line is in fiscal year '16, even with the BCA caps, the domestic base budget does go up. And we also, if you look at the F '15 fi-ed [ph] up, you'll see that the Administration has come in about $35 billion over what the BCA caps are for fiscal year '16. So in either case, there will be a larger base budget. And as part of that base budget the modernization is also going up. And so we believe that the domestic, we will have some uptick business. We're also seeing -- and that's why we're making some investments this year with the evolving threat out there, there's some opportunities for some -- inserting some new technology in -- starting in '16 and '17. And so that's another area why we're moving forward on that. On the LISC, the LISC is a great win for us. It's a joint venture that we have with General Dynamics, and that does give us insight into the ranges across an entire Air Force. So it's a great program for us there just on the base program itself, but giving us insight into what technologies we can bring to bear to the Air Force to help them as they move forward to get to a more affordable solution for all of the ranges. And then the other major area we have is the Warfighter FOCUS Program in terms of training. And we're working with our customers to ensure they have the appropriate training moving forward to be more efficient and from an affordability perspective.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Jason Gursky from Citi.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Dave, can you quantify either in dollar terms or as a percentage of revenue, the investments that you said that you're making here again in cyber, direct energy, electronic warfare, advanced propulsion? Kind of on a year-over-year basis, how much is growth that we're seeing in the spend here in 2015 and what's the spend trajectory look like for the next couple of years?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So specifically on the internal R&D, I noted it before with an earlier question, but I didn't give out the specific dollars. Let me start out again by saying in 2014, that ran a little over 2% of sales and in 2015, will be close to 3% of sales. That translates into roughly speaking, about $500 million of direct R&D spend in 2014, up to between $600 million and $650 million in R&D spend in 2015. Now importantly, that's only one element of our overall R&D focus. Every year, we book and bill, essentially, between $1 billion and $1.5 billion of customer funded R&D. And this is another important element of our overall focus on technologies. And lastly, there are occasions where we win large programs, particularly international, where part of the program win is development activity for technologies that we can leverage on the other programs in the future. So I hope that helps and clarifies the way we're thinking about the company in '15 and beyond.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
No, that is helpful. But as you look out to '16 and '17 and beyond, are we moving our internal R&D from 2% of sales to 3% in perpetuity? Or is 2015 a special year and we go back to 2% in the future?
David C. Wajsgras:
No, I'm actually glad you asked that. We're thinking about internal R&D in the upper 2% range for the foreseeable future.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. And then on the yet to be named Patriot customer, can you talk about what region in the world that might be coming from?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Well, the world is a pretty big place. So let's put it this way. There's 3 regions where we have significant demand for Patriot. And one is Eastern Europe, another one is the MENA region, and the other one is Asia-Pacific. And it's in one of those regions. So I can't get into a direct -- but all I can tell you is I do have a team in country. We are -- we essentially completed all of our activities and now the customer is now going through some of their final arrangements, and we look pretty strong here for a Q1 award. And again, it is important because if you take that on top of the $2.4 billion Qatar, that's within a very short period of time, $4.4 billion of pure Patriot manufacturing where we have significant control over, how you say, efficiencies and in driving our material cost down to ensure we provide, I’d say, pretty good margins on those programs.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
And can you remind us, the installed base on Patriot is 11 or 12 countries at this point, how many of them still need to have an upgrade?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
So we have about -- the new addition of Qatar, we have 13 countries that have Patriot, that's with the addition of Qatar. And out of those, we have probably another 7 -- actually, it's 8, another 8 will have opportunities for the Configuration-3 upgrade. We have the upgrade we've done in Taiwan, we have done the upgrade in UAE. We're doing -- we'll be doing the upgrade in Korea moving forward, and also Qatar, we'll have that upgrade in it. And we've also been doing an upgrade in Saudi on Configuration-3 plus. And then Kuwait, if you remember at the beginning of this year to the beginning of 2014, the first quarter, we got an order for Kuwait for a Configuration-3 plus. So the bottom line is, significant opportunity within the consortium of Patriot users and again, we're up to 13 countries. And with the Polish competition, if that goes in the right direction, that will give us another country and allow us to have 14 participants in the Patriot consortium worldwide.
Todd B. Ernst:
Taheesha, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your last question will come from the line of Pete Skibitski from Drexel Hamilton.
Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division:
Just wanted to ask about from a couple of perspectives. One, can you tell us how much Blackbird is going to contribute to revenue in 2015? And then part 2, just on the cash flow outlook, it really looks like at a reasonable level of share repurchases, it really looks like your dry powder is going to build pretty meaningfully over the next couple of years. So should we expect especially now that you've got maybe some better DoD budget visibility, should we expect M&A to accelerate kind of sharply over the next couple of years?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Let me talk about Blackbird real quick here. It is a great acquisition for us, number one, for its technology and also for its channels into both SOCOM and the Intel communities. But in terms of this year, it will give us about a 1% in terms of revenue contribution to the business. Just one other element we -- it is a very excellent management team for Blackbird and also have a great workforce of I would call some very highly skilled technical folks. So we're looking forward to the synergies that we'll be able to achieve via that acquisition.
David C. Wajsgras:
So Pete, again, Toby O'Brien, the soon to be official CFO, it's probably best for him to talk about his thoughts on capital deployment going forward. So Toby, why don't you handle that?
Toby O'Brien:
Sure Dave. So Pete, as Todd mentioned, I won't officially be in the CFO seat here until early March, but capital deployment is something I've spent some time on and given some thought. And Tom and Dave have described our priorities for capital deployment for a while and they've been pretty consistent. And I do believe that our approach has and will continue to serve us and our shareholders well. So bottom line at this point, I don't foresee the need for any meaningful changes to our current approach or priorities. That said, we will continue with an active share repurchase program. We will continue to recommend annual dividend increases to our Board. And given the funded status of the pension plans and where we are now forecasting markets over the next 3 years, we are not currently seeing any need for further discretionary pension contributions. And lastly, as you know, our global growth objective, it's very key to us and will continue to be a priority. And acquisitions that create shareholder value, meaning that they have to make sense economically, they have to fill a gap from a product technology or market channel standpoint. They will become a focus more than they have in prior years and Tom just described Black Border -- Blackbird -- excuse me and that's a good example of an acquisition that met that criteria.
Todd B. Ernst:
All right, great. Well, thank you. We'll have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter conference call in April. Taheesha?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Todd B. Ernst - Former Vice President of Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David C. Wajsgras - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Glenn, and I'll be your event manager for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd B. Ernst:
Thank you, Glenn. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our third quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website on raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of the website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Wajsgras, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Dave, and then we'll move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. This morning, Raytheon reported solid quarter results, driven by strong operational performance across the company. Notably, our margins in the third quarter improved over last quarter due to solid program execution, and our book-to-bill ratio in the quarter was 1.07 as a result of global customer demand for our diverse range of solutions. Raytheon's broad and deep portfolio of advanced systems continues to be a key strength for the company. Overall, we performed well in the third quarter and continue to position the company for long-term growth. In the quarter, domestic bookings were solid and drove a book-to-bill ratio of 1.15. Demand in the third quarter came from across our domestic portfolio, including significant bookings from the FAA and other civil customers in addition to core defense. I would note that this is the second consecutive quarter with domestic book-to-bill ratio above 1. Turning now to the international market. The shifting geopolitical landscape and the evolving global threat environment are driving demand for our advanced solutions. And as we mentioned on the last call, Qatar signed an LOA for $2 billion Patriot integrated air and missile defense system with the U.S. government in early July. Since this is an FMS deal, the next step is for us to get a contract with the U.S. government. We are currently working through the process to finalize our agreement with the U.S. Army, and we expect to book an order before year-end. Another international booking opportunity we see in the fourth quarter is also for Patriot System. This is a $2 billion opportunity for 6 fire units. As we mentioned on the last call, we expect to book this before year-end. As we look beyond this year into 2015, we see continued demand for our core capabilities from our global customers, which highlights our alignment with our priorities. For example, there are a number of upcoming domestic opportunities in electronic warfare, including the Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement program, which is an EW system for ships; and the radio frequency countermeasures program, which is a Jammer receiver to protect special operations aircraft. These pursuits, along with other opportunities, represent meaningful future electronic warfare growth potential for the company. For cyber, we're winning new business and see significant opportunities developing in both our domestic and international markets. As we've discussed on prior calls, we expect a couple of large international Patriot decisions next year. These are for Poland's integrated air and missile defense system and South Korea's upgrade of their existing systems to Configuration-3 plus. These opportunities reflect ongoing global demand for our advanced integrated air and missile defense solutions. Domestically, we are in a competition for the Missile Defense Agency's long-range discrimination radar, a large radar to be utilized for homeland missile defense, which we expect to be awarded in 2015. We are well positioned for this competition. These are just a few of the many opportunities that we see developing in the year ahead. To position the company for long term, we continue to make investments in game-changing technologies. Today, Raytheon is a global leader in the effects market. By leveraging our world-class talent and focusing our IRAD efforts on developing the next generation of weapons systems, we are winning early technology programs now to remain at the forefront of this market in the future. We see 2 key areas where our customers are seeking more sophisticated capabilities
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the third quarter highlights, and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slide that we issued earlier this morning, so if everyone could turn to Page 3. We're pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the third quarter. Bookings were $5.9 billion and sales were $5.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.07. Operating margin was strong at 13.9%. EPS from continuing operations was $1.65 and was reduced by $0.06 per share to reflect the retroactive year-to-date impact of pension funding stabilization as part of the highway bill enacted in August and actuarial updates related to our pension plans. And just to be clear, the $0.06 per share is comprised of $0.11 per share due to lower CAS expense, partially offset by $0.03 per share for the favorable impact from the reduction of the effective tax rate and $0.02 per share for the actuarial updates that I just mentioned. On an adjusted basis, operating margin was strong at 13.2%. Adjusted EPS in the quarter was $1.57. We also generated solid operating cash flow, $423 million for the quarter. The highway bill lowered cash flow by about $50 million in the quarter and will impact full year by about $150 million. During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.1 million shares of common stock for $200 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchased to 6.8 million shares for $650 million. Turning now to Page 4. Our total company bookings for the quarter were $5.9 billion, an increase of about $200 million compared to the third quarter 2013. And on a year-to-date basis, bookings were $16.9 billion, an increase of approximately $2.3 billion over the same period last year. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.08. For the quarter, international bookings were 24% of total new awards and on a year-to-date basis was 28%. For the year, we continue to expect international to be in the range of 35% to 40% of total company bookings. As Tom just mentioned, we have significant international opportunities that we expect to book in the fourth quarter. We continue to see our full year 2014 bookings to be in the range of $23.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million. This would result in a book-to-bill ratio of between 1.0x and 1.05x. Backlog at the end of the third quarter was $33.2 billion, up $1 billion compared to the same period last year and funded backlog was $22.9 billion, up approximately $700 million, again, compared to last year's third quarter. Now on Slide 5. For the third quarter 2014, sales were $5.5 billion and year-to-date were $16.7 billion. International sales were approximately 30% of total sales in the quarter and were up just under 4% compared to last year's third quarter. IDS had third quarter 2014 net sales of $1.4 billion. The change from Q3 2013 was driven by the completion of the production phases on a couple of international Patriot programs. IIS net sales of $1.5 billion in the quarter were relatively consistent with the same quarter last year. Missile systems had third quarter 2014 net sales of $1.5 billion. As expected, we saw lower sales from U.S. Army programs. Sales were also impacted by the planned transition from development to production on Standard Missile-3 in this year's third quarter. And SAS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Lower volume on intersegment sales was the primary driver when compared to last year's Q3. Excluding the reduced intersegment sales, SAS's sales were in line with the third quarter 2013. Now moving to Page 6. Overall, the company margins were strong and exceeded our guidance. Our reported operating margin was 13.9% and on an adjusted basis was 13.2%. On a year-to-date basis, our operating margin was 13.8% and 12.6% on an adjusted basis. As most of you know, recent pressure on the Defense budget has been driving the Defense Department to look for innovative ways to deploy resources more effectively. One of these ways has been the rollout of DoD's better buying power initiatives. Along these lines, we continue to find ways to reduce the total price of our offerings, leverage exportability and strengthen competitiveness. We're making thoughtful investments in technology with the objective of lowering program development and production costs and positioning Raytheon to further expand internationally, while improving our global competitive posture. We're doing this while maintaining a focus on strong margins. So looking at the business margins. All were up sequentially from the second quarter. Strong operating performance across our businesses, combined with our focus on execution productivity and efficiency, continues to be reflected in our financial results. At missiles and SAS, margins were higher than the same period last year. Solid overall program performance drove improvement at both businesses. At SAS, we experienced strong material and labor efficiencies, particularly with tactical airborne systems production. The change in IDS was primarily driven by a few international air and missile defense programs nearing completion. And at IIS, we saw higher net program efficiencies in last year's third quarter. Overall, the company is performing well. Turning now to Page 7. Third quarter 2014 EPS was $1.65 and on an adjusted basis was $1.57. EPS for the third quarter 2014 was better than expected, primarily due to the improved tax rate and overall margin performance. On Page 8, we are updating the company's financial outlook for 2014, which now includes the recent enactment of the highway bill. Based on our performance year-to-date, we've narrowed our sales range guidance, raising the low end by $200 million. We now expect our full year 2014 net sales to be in the range of between $22.7 billion and $23 billion. And we have -- and as we have done in prior years, during the third quarter, we updated our actuarial estimates related to our pension plans. As a result of this update and the enactment of the highway bill, the FAS/CAS adjustment for the year decreased by $59 million from $346 million to $287 million or $0.12 per share. We repurchased 2.1 million shares of common stock for $200 million in the quarter and have narrowed our diluted share count to be in the range of between 312 million and 313 million shares for 2014, which would be a 4% reduction at the midpoint compared with full year 2013. Now I'll address the updates to our EPS and changes to our tax outlook in just a minute. As I mentioned earlier, operating cash flow in the quarter was solid and we expect it to remain strong in Q4. I do want to point out that our updated 2014 guidance for operating cash flow is slightly lower, reflecting the implementation of the highway bill, which is expected to have an approximate $150 million net cash impact. This is due to both the lower cash recovery and higher cash taxes, which together, more than offsets the lower required pension contributions. We now expect our 2014 guidance for operating cash flow to be between $2.15 billion and $2.35 billion. Turning now to Page 9. We've provided you with a walk, showing the change to both our GAAP and adjusted EPS outlook for 2014. You'll note that we raised our full year 2014 adjusted EPS guidance on the high end by $0.10 due to the lower expected tax rate for the full year. And given our confidence level, we've narrowed the range. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be between $5.91 and $6.01 for 2014. As a reminder, we've not included in our 2014 guidance the potential extension of the R&D tax credit. The change in GAAP EPS includes the $0.10 for the tax improvement and also includes the $0.12 reduction in the FAS/CAS adjustment that I've mentioned a moment ago. We now expect full year 2014 EPS to be between $6.77 and $6.87. Now if you'd move to Page 10. We've raised SAS margins to reflect the stronger year-to-date performance, narrowed the range for IIS and missiles and lowered IDS's margins to reflect business performance year-to-date. With that said, the fourth quarter for IDS is expected to be strong. For the company, we see adjusted operating margin to be in the range of between 12.7% and 12.8% for the full year. Before moving on to Page 11, I wanted to make you aware that we've entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a privately held company in our core defense business for approximately $400 million. We expect the closing next month after completing normal regulatory reviews and approvals. Given that this acquisition is still under regulatory review and subject to a nondisclosure agreement, we're unable to comment further until it closes. So if you could please move to Page 11. We have provided a FAS/CAS pension adjustment matrix for 2015, as we've done in prior years. It does include the estimated impact of the highway bill. And just to be clear, the discount rate and the actual asset returns won't be known until we close out 2014. As you can see on Slide 12, we've provided an outlook for required funding and CAS recovery that include the impact of the highway bill compared to our prior outlook from last January. Required pension contributions are decreasing from both the prior outlook as well as sequentially from 2014. CAS recovery still increases, although at a slower rate. This has a favorable impact on our pretax net cash flow over the forecast horizon. Again, markets are volatile and asset returns will change before year-end, which will affect these estimates. We'll provide a more detailed pension outlook on our January year-end call. Before concluding, let me take just a moment to bring you up-to-date on e-Borders. As we announced on August 15, we received a decision from the arbitration tribunal in connection with the proceeding between Raytheon Systems Limited and the U.K. Home Office that the UK Border Agency unlawfully terminated RSL. As a result, we were awarded approximately $300 million. The Home Office has since filed a challenge to the decision. Payment of amounts awarded to Raytheon is now pending resolution of the challenge. As such, we have not included the impact in our third quarter results or in our full year guidance. Due to the ongoing legal matters, we cannot comment further at this time. So in summary, we saw solid performance in the third quarter. We have strong bookings and strong margins. We expect to close out the year with a number of new awards that establishes a solid foundation for the future. Combined with our strong cash flow and balance sheet, we believe we're well positioned to continue to drive value for our customers and our shareholders. With that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Joe Nadol with JPMorgan.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
I would love to ask you more about your $400 million acquisition, but I know you said not to do that.
David C. Wajsgras:
I know you would, Joe, but we just can't talk about it.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
No, I understand. But you said it was in your core defense area. I noted that one of your competitors made an acquisition in the last week or so, a $200 plus million acquisition in the commercial cyber area, which is something that you guys have expressed some interest in. And talking about BAE, just to be specific, Tom, I was wondering if you could update us on your thoughts on that area.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes. As we mentioned on past calls, our first priority is growing the company organically. And I did talk on just prior to this, relative to all the technology investments that we have made over the last 10 years and they're coming to fruition now in terms of the wins. We just -- I talked about 3DELRR and I mentioned it's in protest. But I think that was a big win for Raytheon and we'll work through the protest. But also in the last year, we also won Next Generation Jammer, Air and Missile Defense Radar and also FAB-T. So this focus on the organic growth is working. The other areas -- we are looking in taking a disciplined approach for acquisitions in our core markets. And one of our core markets is cyber. And so we are looking at that area. And we'll continue to look at acquisitions to fill gaps in our core markets as we proceed forward.
David C. Wajsgras:
So Joe, we have talked about our focus on growth. Tom has made that a top priority for the company. We are firstly focused on organic, but growth through acquisitions where it makes strategic and economic sense will also be part of the equation. So this really shouldn't come as any surprise. We have a very healthy balance sheet, strong cash balances, continue to see strong cash flows. So this is just one of our -- one of the elements of capital deployment that we've talked about, certainly, over the past year, 1.5 years.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And Joe, just back to your question on cyber. We mentioned that on an earlier call, that we had gotten a major award from an international customer. So we have gone into the international marketplace relative to cyber, government cyber work. We also received an announcement here internally kept, but for another international customer this quarter. And so we are off and running relative to strong cyber work in the government arena on the international side as well as the domestic.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And then just one more, which is on the IDS side. You took down your margin expectation a little bit for the year and you mentioned it was just based on what you've done year-to-date. I was wondering if you could give a little more color. Is that based on -- largely on timing of the Patriot awards that you expect here soon that are coming a little later in the year than maybe you originally thought? Or is there something else there?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So that's a fair question. IDS's fourth quarter margins are expected to be in the high 16% to low 17% range. So as I said a few minutes ago and Tom alluded to as well, it's a very strong quarter for IDS. For the full year, we've lowered the IDS margin range to between 15.7% and 15.8%. And as you just mentioned, it's primarily based on year-to-date performance. More specifically, within the fourth quarter, we see stronger margins than the year-to-date run rate, driven by some customer and program milestones related to risk retirement. Mix isn't a significant factor. I'll tell you this again, mix is not a significant factor in the fourth quarter, as we have some mature production programs nearing completion that are offset by the impact of the new starts. So again, we're seeing a strong fourth quarter, strong margins, good productivity. It's just slightly lower than what we had expected earlier.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Sanford Bernstein.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Just continuing on IDS. You talked about the fact that you're ramping down on some international missile defense-related contracts and you're going to be ramping up on others. And then in the meantime, you certainly have U.S. missile defense sales that often, I think, fill in gaps of there. But how should we expect the profile of these revenues to look? I mean, should we see a lull of new work starts? Or can this stay pretty constant through new programs?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes. I think IDS -- I mean, it actually had a very good quarter. And so we're definitely pleased with their performance and that they also had strong bookings sales and are looking forward into the fourth quarter and 2 large international bookings that will be coming in on the fourth quarter. So we -- bottom line is IDS is very strong. And we see the revenue maintaining through the fourth quarter and then into the next year. So I think bottom line is, we believe IDS is solid moving forward.
David C. Wajsgras:
So let me just add a little bit to what Tom just mentioned. So third quarter sales were down from the prior year and slightly down, which is what Tom was alluding to, from our expectations. We had assumed that Qatar Patriot award at the end of the third quarter and it's moved into now the fourth quarter. We do see a quick ramp on the Qatar program in Q4 as well as the other international Patriot award that Tom again mentioned just a few minutes ago, which combined, drive the fourth quarter sales growth. We've been working with our supply chain to prepare for these awards. And you'll note that we did build some inventory over the last couple of quarters. We've built ahead and we've done this before, and we'll recognize the revenue upon award during the fourth quarter before year-end. So I hope that helps.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
No, that does help. And then related to this, when you look at some of the positive trends out there -- but this is probably terrible to refer to as positive. But you talked about the global threat environment and how this is something that Raytheon can -- is going to increase demand for Raytheon products potentially. Could you give a little more clarity on that? In other words, when you look at some of the situations in the world right now, such as in the Middle East, are these things that lead you to believe there may be more demand in the near term for -- within some of your business units?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Let me start in Eastern Europe. And I mentioned on my discussions upfront that we're in a major competition in Poland for an integrated air and missile defense system, and that's had a heightened sense of urgency in Poland relative to the activities going on in Eastern Europe, especially relative to Ukraine. So we do see that kind of coming, moving a little bit to the left into 2015. As we move over to the Middle East, I mean, it's -- you see this in the paper every day, ISIS is right now the big overarching threat and it's more of a tactical-type threat and more effects based. And it was released in the newspaper about a quantity of Tomahawks that were used in the initial days of our efforts there. So in the area of effects, we would see a need in the future to replenish the effects that were used. The -- as we also look at the Middle East, we do see a strong sense in having -- and this is based on my visits to a majority of the countries in the region here in the last 3 months. I think it kind of sums up in the following words, and I heard it in all these different countries from senior leaders of the countries, and that is a strong defense is a strong deterrence. And they were using that in light of integrated air and missile defense. And so you'll see that we completed a major effort in the UAE on Patriot upgrades. We are now into working with Lockheed on the THAAD system and other TPY-2 radars in that country. We move over to Saudi, we're working several projects in Saudi Arabia relative to improving their defense posture. You heard about the Qatar deal, which the first part of it is the Patriot. The second part of it is an early warning radar. And then there's also an air defense operating center that's in there. And then eventually, they'll buy THAAD, which has TPY-2 radars in it. So again, a strong position in Qatar moving forward. And bottom line is the -- we are well positioned in that region for growth relative to our core products. So I don't know if that helps, but it's -- our business is driven by the threat. There is a threat. And that's increasing -- it's increasing demand for our proven technologies and also new technologies, as we see in the awards that I mentioned earlier on the call.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Royal Bank of Canada.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, I thought we'd kick it off on the cash front. It looks like you're having $1 billion of cash over the next couple of years. What do you intend to spend it on?
David C. Wajsgras:
You picked right up on that, Rob, didn't you? Yes. So look, the company doesn't anticipate any wholesale changes to the way we've talked about capital deployment. We've had, I think, a policy that has served the shareholders well with respect to a balance around capital deployment, with respect to dividends and share repurchases. We've funded the pension plan, from our perspective, appropriately. We've invested in our sales. Tom mentioned a couple of technology investments we've made. We're going to continue to do that as we move forward. There is a cost obviously associated with consolidating footprint or improving utilization. So we'll continue to invest in ourselves from that perspective as well. I mentioned to one of your colleagues earlier, relative to acquisitions and smartly investing in acquisitions that make strategic sense and importantly, financial sense, both in the near and longer term. So the short version is we understand our cash position quite well, and we continue to look for ways to best drive both near-term and long-term shareholder value.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then as a follow-up. Your book-to-bill has been over 1x over the last 12 months and year-to-date. When do you expect this book-to-bill to actually translate into revenues?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So we've talked about this in the past. We have, even as far back as last year, we had seen the back half of '16 and as we go into 2017, as the reversal of the trend that the sales line has been on over the last 3 or 4 years, we still anticipate that being the case. The bookings are coming in quite strong, both domestically and internationally. So over time, we see growth returning to Raytheon. And again, this is almost exactly what we had said about a year ago.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
First, a question for you, Tom, and one for Dave. Can you just talk a little bit about the structural outlook for the margin...
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, could you repeat that?
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Yes. Sorry about that. So first about outlook for margins and the fact that you are guiding to 35% to 40% of your bookings this year coming from the international marketplace. What does that portend for margins structurally as we move out over the next 3 to 5 years, let's say? Are we looking at a margin rate that should be -- the bias should be a little bit higher than where we are today?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
I would say, right now, you hit it right. On international -- part of our international work in terms of percent of sales has been increasing. And right now, we're -- about 30% of our revenue comes from international. We also have a backlog to date of 37% international, which we believe will end the year greater than 40% of our backlog will be international. Traditionally, our international has been a higher margin business. Right now, we are looking conservatively to the future, even taking that in consideration. And we are looking at our margin performance continuing as it has been in the past. Margins are very important to us. We drive them in the business. We really look at trying to take to take as much cost out of the business. And we really work on the type of contracts that we go after and pursue to make sure that they will be profitable programs. And that's, I would say, a #1 priority for the Raytheon Company, and we will continue to support that position.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
And then -- that's helpful. Dave, for you, just going back to the prior question about cash flows and spending. Can you also just loop in your updated thoughts here on the balance sheet as well? I mean, obviously, you have a very strong balance sheet. How do you -- where do you sit relative to the optimal capital structure, your view on your debt rating with the agencies? And how should investors think about the cash flows that you're generating and the potential use of cash -- excuse me, the balance sheet to support all of these potential activities that you've got out there?
David C. Wajsgras:
Sure. So a strong balance sheet is one of the issues that I don't see a problem dealing with, okay? We're pretty pleased that it's not the other end of the spectrum. So understanding that, we -- the rating -- the target rating for us would not go any lower than a BBB+ as we sit here today and look out. I know the rating is slightly above that, given the strength of the balance sheet and net debt position, the outlook for cash flows. Going forward, again, I'm not going to repeat everything I just mentioned a moment ago on capital deployment. From a leverage position, we think we're in a relatively good position today. Could we afford some more leverage on the balance sheet and maintain the rating? Yes, we could. So I think the way that investors should view Raytheon is we're in a strong position financially. We're not going to sacrifice the strong position financially. It gives us the ability to pull multiple levers to drive value from an investor's perspective without putting too much risk on the company, risk from a financial perspective.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Godyn with Morgan Stanley.
John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Dave, to one of the prior questions, you made the comment that deals need to have an impact in the near and the long term. I was hoping that you could just sort of take the opportunity to remind us what you've either said in the past or maybe offer some new commentary on the broader framework for M&A. It doesn't seem like M&A will be going away necessarily anytime soon. When you typically think about a deal, how quickly do you hope that they're accretive? How do you think about return hurdles versus maybe the internal hurdles in the company? How do you think about synergies, risks, deal size? Any -- the broader philosophy here, I think, would be helpful.
David C. Wajsgras:
Sure. So -- and I'll do this in a summary way. Any deal that we end up executing will have a return profile well in excess of the company's weighted average cost of capital, part one; part two, as we look to fill gaps from a product technology or channel standpoint, and that's what makes these acquisitions attractive; number three, is with respect to accretion, we would target for these deals to be accretive after about 2 years, but certainly not much after 3 years. The deals we've done to date have by and large turned out to be quite successful and have returned incremental value. I'm not going to get into the specifics, but we recently looked at this. Incremental value that is meaningful from a shareholder's standpoint. So I don't know, Tom, if you want to add anything from that perspective?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
No. I would just like to address the gaps. As part of our strategic process we go through is we do identify the gaps and in being able to achieve the growth that we expect from our strategy. And as part of that gap, we look at either internal investments or look at acquisitions to fill those gaps in the most cost-effective manner and also relative to speed and agility. And so that's really how we look at it. And that's obviously addressing the synergies that we get by buying these companies.
David C. Wajsgras:
And just one last point. With respect to size of acquisitions, I know you're aware of this. I think most people are. We have not been very active in the M&A market for the last couple of years, by design, for a number of reasons. With respect to the size of the acquisitions, it's probably not in investors' best interest or the company's best interest to handcuff ourselves to a certain amount. Certainly, I don't see a problem with doing deals larger than we've done in the past. But again, I think the most important thing is, when we look at acquisitions, we want to make sure that we can maintain the type of capital deployment plan, execute the type of capital deployment that we have in the past, and we don't want to sacrifice one for the other. So that's probably the best way to think about how we're thinking about size of acquisitions.
John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Great, that's very helpful. And if I could ask one quickly on Patriot. Assuming the Cutter deal goes through, you'll have quite a lot of Patriot business hitting at the same time. And I'm curious if you can just speak to -- I know it's hard to put a number on it. I'm not necessarily looking for that. But what does that mean for margins? I mean, I imagine a scenario where you're layering shift on top of shift. I mean, it seems like it could be pretty impactful. Anything you can offer there would be helpful.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Well, the more you load up the factory, the better the financial performance of the programs are. And so bottom line is we'll have the Qatar program going through and another major program going through at the same time. So we do expect improved efficiencies on the production side, which then translate into good margin performance in the out years. Now we do traditionally at the beginning of the program, we start off at lower margins on a per basis on each of the programs as we build confidence and reduce risk moving through, for example, risk on our supply chain or other elements, whether we do increase the margins through the lifetime of the program. That's just the traditional way that we do it from -- to control risk. I don't know. Hopefully, that helps.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, you had talked about investments you're making to lower cost and -- as one of the things with Better Buying. And I guess, I'm trying to just think about, is this something that in a way is driving down revenues because of cost-plus work? And is there any way you can quantify what the impact of that might be?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, let me start -- I'm sure Tom has something to add. We started talking about this a few years ago, and we spoke to it pretty directly early in the year on the January or first quarter call. I don't remember which one. We've been investing in technology through a number of different vehicles for a while. Tom mentioned a few new programs that we have with DARPA. It's important to understand that when we invest in technology programs -- I'll use Tom's words, these are seed corn for the future. So by definition, these are not high-fee or high-margin programs. They're well below the average company margins. So that's one form of investment. There's direct investments through our IRAD, and that runs roughly speaking $300 million to $400 million a year. There's investment from a program perspective. Tom spoke on one of the calls about the Patriot System and how an earlier international program essentially was set so that we could invest in new Patriot capabilities and technologies. And that's what's being basically sold across the globe today. So there's varying ways to think about investments. Tom, I don't know if you wanted to add something to that?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes. And getting the cost out is obviously driven to improve our financial performance. But also our customer has a need. And I'm sure you've heard about the Better Buying Power, that OSD's initiatives that they're running. We are working with our customers to drive additional cost out of our products. And part of that is, as you said, reducing our footprint. We're driving and optimizing our global shared services part of our business to get cost out. We also have fully implemented strategic sourcing across our entire business to essentially improve our cost perspective relative to our overall supply chain. And so it's -- we -- and it's been very successful as we move forward. Now working with our customer, we understand that there's -- they need more for less. And so it is important for us to make sure that we deliver products that meet their capability needs but at a cost that they can afford. And we've been doing that and you can see some of the wins we had. The FAB-T program is a prime example of their use of competition. And we believe that we're significantly in line with what our customer wants to do in terms of cost.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then Dave, in terms of the pension slide on Page 11. Is there -- where would we be if the year ended right now in terms of that grid?
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. If the year ended today, the returns are roughly -- the actual returns are roughly about 3%. It's important, it has been -- the markets have been exceptionally volatile in the past, I don't know, 4, 6 weeks. There's been a selloff of about 8% -- 7% or 8% from a broader market perspective. Historically, the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter of the year. So it's very hard to handicap how this plays out. And -- but today, we would be at about 3%. If you're thinking about the discount rate, last year was pegged at 5.1. If you look at the past month, there's been a lot of movement in interest rate markets as well. I'm sure you're aware of that. We would be down, roughly speaking, 50 to 75 basis points, again, if you look at it from a month ago to roughly where we are today. The one thing I just -- I want to say this again, I probably said it 3 or 4 times. This is a point in time and I'm pretty confident when I tell you it's absolutely going to change by year-end, okay?
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And one last quick one. It's just the Other, net of $234 million in the cash flow, what was that? What does that mean [ph]?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. There was a settlement that we had relative to a long-dated pension litigation with the U.S. government. It goes back to -- prior to 2000 that was settled. That was a big piece of what's in there.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with Deutsche Bank.
Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
I was wondering if we could start on a clarification first. Was there any cume catch in the segments from the CAS adjustment. Northrop called one out and Lockheed didn't. I just didn't know if there's one for you guys.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. No, I saw that, and we looked at it obviously. For us, I'll use my term, it was a bit of a rounding error. What we call the flow-through was under $10 million spread across 4 different segments. So it does impact all companies differently. It depends on overall percent of completion, your mix of fixed price versus cost-type business. There's a lot of elements that go into that. But for us, it was not meaningful.
Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay, great. The real question was on sales target for the year. And given the sales kind of what you're shooting for in the quarter didn't come through, you did raise the low end of the guidance range. Even at that low end, I think it would be one of the more bountiful sequential growths you've had from a 3Q to 4Q. You talked about IDS, and that's dependent on securing contracts. And then missiles is the other big moving target. Is there something there you need to secure as well? And it just seems like you'd put a little bit more factoring behind a lot of this to maybe not have brought up that guidance range.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So good question. Let me just -- I talked about IDS earlier. So I won't go over that segment again. With respect to missiles, the most important metric from that business's perspective is the book-to-bill, which is 1.11 year-to-date. So we do see a fairly healthy ramp in Q4 on their year-to-date bookings, and that's why you're seeing very strong sales in Q4. So the combination -- and you nailed it, the combination of IDS and missile systems have a fairly meaningful impact from a company level perspective in the fourth quarter.
Myles A. Walton - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
I mean, missiles was 1.6 in the second quarter. And obviously, it didn't lead to anything in the third quarter. So it's just it will come, you have it in hand and it's just delivering what you have.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. That's why I wanted to go to the book-to-bill. That's right.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
One of the things that you've been doing internationally has been partnering. Could you expand upon that a little bit? For example, in Poland, it looks like you have a low-cost missile. You want to integrate onto Patriot and then you've done some things with Kongsberg in Norway to expand the portfolio. How does that help you maybe in the intermediate term? And also does that mean you have a Patriot 3 -- PAC-3 solution in hand or close to it?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Let me start off with the partnering, and I'll give you a kind of a phrase. We partner for success. And it does help on the international marketplace to be able to partner with strong companies, for example, Kongsberg. You mentioned there is another activity in Poland, another competition that's not Patriot. It's for the -- more in line with our NASAM system. That's a system that protects the nation's capital. You're correct. We are partnering with Kongsberg in that pursuit in Poland. And we think we're in a very good position there. We also have partnered with Kongsberg in Oman on the NASAMS award that we got last year. So we do work with them. We also have a joint venture with TALOS Raytheon systems. Again, we partner with different companies to -- essentially for success and where it makes sense. Relative to a new low-cost interceptor for Patriot, that's just in our overall Patriot road map to continually -- to evolve that system into its next generation. Right now, we have something called Configuration-3 plus. That was a result of the major development activity funded by the United Arab Emirates that has taken Patriot to essentially state-of-the-art technology. And -- but we are going beyond that. We are working solutions for AESA radars for Patriot. We also are looking at reduced-cost interceptors and other C2 and C4I capabilities for the Patriot System. That continues -- we continue to do that, so that we're relevant in the marketplace, and that we continue to win business across the globe. I hope that helps, Howard, but that's how we do business.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Well, it expands the footprint and the partnering.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Exactly. Expands the footprint, and sometimes certain companies have a better footprint in certain countries. And by partnering, you can be more competitive in the marketplace.
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
And then for Dave, just a follow-up on Sam's pension question. So if we kind of looked at where we are today versus where we were a year ago, the difference is on the order of $300 million. Is that a fair way to think about it?
David C. Wajsgras:
Today versus what we have -- what we would have talked about in January -- are you talking about -- what year, Howard?
Howard A. Rubel - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
I'm sorry. Well, 2015 FAS/CAS outlook versus what you had in January for...
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. If you put a stake in the ground, I actually think it's a little bit north of that. But again, I would urge you not to reach any conclusions based on the spot market today, especially with respect to the returns. The other thing I would ask you to look at is the cash flow over the next 3 years, which increases substantially as a result of the highway bill. But you're right. I mean, point to point, you're right. That's the arithmetic. That's the grid. But as you well know, between now and year-end, things will definitely change.
Todd B. Ernst:
Okay. We're going to have to leave it there. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We'll look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter call in January.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Executives:
Todd B. Ernst - Former Vice President of Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chief Executive Officer, Director and Member of Executive Committee David C. Wajsgras - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Robert Spingarn - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Glenn, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Todd B. Ernst:
Thank you, Glenn. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of the call, and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Wajsgras, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Dave, and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Earlier this morning, we reported solid second quarter results, with company sales, margins, EPS and cash flow higher than our expectations. Bookings were strong, driving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.19 in the quarter, with exceptionally strong bookings in the domestic business. Our bookings in the second quarter increased by approximately $1.4 billion over the second quarter 2013. Looking to the balance of the year, we have a significant pipeline of opportunities, including several large international programs. Over the past couple of months, I've traveled to meet a number of our international customers, including 2 trips to the Middle East, as well as to the Farnborough Airshow last week. Overall, at the Farnborough this year, the company hosted delegations from over 30 countries, totaling 700 meetings, with 1,200 customers and partners. Based on these meetings, I can say with confidence that our global customers continue to look to Raytheon to provide advanced solutions to meet their evolving requirements. And demand remains strong, especially in the areas of integrated air and missile defense, C4ISR, cyber, critical infrastructure protection, and training. As always, the timing of international awards can be difficult to predict, but demand is clearly there. In the second quarter, international sales comprised 29% of Raytheon's total sales. International bookings were 24% of total bookings and were up 21% year-over-year. These bookings were primarily driven by the international TOW and the Canadian North Warning System opportunities we mentioned on the last call, as well as other missile and training awards. We continue to make progress on several international air and missile defense opportunities, which we've discussed on prior calls. After the close of the quarter, Qatar signed a letter of agreement with the U.S. government for the Patriot system, and we expect a booking later this year. Qatar was -- will become the 13th nation to have chosen the Patriot integrated air and missile defense system to defend their country. In addition, we expect Qatar to move forward on an air defense operating center for approximately $300 million, which we anticipate will result in a booking at the end of the year. During the quarter, we made progress on another international Patriot opportunity. This approximately $2 billion opportunity continues to move forward and is now at the final stages of the approval process. We expect the booking in the second half of the year. We have recently received good news about 2 other large potential international opportunities. In late June, Poland announced that Raytheon had been down selected for the next competitive phase of its medium-range missile defense system. We are now the sole U.S. competitor for the contract and believe we have a strong offering, with world-class technology that provide significant value to Poland. Patriot is fielded and is being continuously upgraded with leading-edge technologies, which is a key competitive discriminator in this competition. A final decision on the Poland award is expected in 2015. And just after the close of the quarter, we booked $160 million for upgraded Patriot missiles for South Korea. This is the first step of a 2-step process. The next step is a systems upgrade to Configuration-3 plus for South Korea's firing units for several hundred million dollars, which also is planned for next year. Overall, our international business remains strong. We are expanding into new markets, and broadening our presence in existing markets. As we do this, we are continuously enhancing how we do business internationally so we can create and capitalize on even more opportunities. One of my top priorities is to foster this focus on global growth. To achieve this, we are taking a different approach in certain countries. We are increasing our direct engagement, utilizing more local resources and expanding our global supply chain. We believe this commitment will provide us with the ability to create more international opportunities and increase our competitive advantage. Looking now at the domestic environment, we saw strong bookings in the quarter, which increased nearly 30% year-over-year and resulted in a domestic book-to-bill of 1.27. This bookings achievement was driven by various sensor, training, missile and classified bookings. I've had the opportunity to meet with numerous representatives from Congress and the Department of Defense over the past several months, and the feedback regarding the important capabilities that Raytheon products bring to the Warfighter continues to be positive. In the defense bills making their way to through Congress, Raytheon programs are faring well despite continued budget pressure. Congress is proposing increases for several programs, including Tomahawk, SM-3 and EKV, and most other Raytheon programs are funded at or near the President's request. Another issue of significant interest to Congress is homeland defense. In June, we achieved a successful test to the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle, which incorporates the latest hardware and software upgrades. This successful test keeps the United States on track to significantly increase its ground-based interceptor inventory. And also in June, Raytheon won a nearly $300 million production competition for the FAB-T program. This program allows a short communication between military aircraft, ground sites and the new higher data rate Advanced EHF satellites. Our secure communications position with the U.S. Air Force is enhanced by this win. It also builds on our leading position in the protective SATCOM market, where we provide a Navy Multiband Terminal for the U.S. Navy and SMART-T for the Army. The bulk of this award will be booked next year. The FAB-T win underscores the value of our continued investment in advanced technology to strengthen our competitive advantage across multiple products. During the quarter, we also marked several milestones related to corporate responsibility, which reflects our values and strong company culture. We released our new Corporate Responsibility Report, highlighting our efforts, investments and accomplishments in the many areas that define corporate responsibility at Raytheon. We were recognized by the EPA with our seventh consecutive ENERGY STAR Sustained Excellence Award for continued leadership and protecting our environment through superior energy efficiency. We were, again, ranked on Corporate Responsibility Magazine's 100 Best Corporate Citizens list, illustrating our strong commitment to corporate citizenship. In summary, we had a solid overall performance in the quarter. Bookings were strong, and we have a number of large opportunities included in the Qatar Patriot in the remainder of the year. I'd like to thank the Raytheon team for their continued dedication and focus on delivering value for our customers and shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Dave.
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I have a few opening remarks starting with the second quarter highlights, and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that were issued earlier this morning. So if everyone would please turn to Page 3. We're pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the second quarter, with sales, EPS, margins and operating cash flow all better than our expectations. We had strong bookings in the second quarter at $6.8 billion and sales of $5.7 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.19. Operating margin was solid at 13.3% and on an adjusted basis was 11.8%. And our EPS from continuing operations was $1.59. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.41. Operating cash flow of $153 million was better than our prior guidance, driven by the timing of collections that were previously expected in the third quarter. During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.6 million shares of common stock for $250 million, bringing the year-to-date share repurchase to 4.6 million shares for $450 million. We ended the second quarter with $560 million of net debt. I'd like to point out that on May 12, Standard & Poor's Ratings Service upgraded our long-term senior unsecured credit rating from A- to A, reflecting our strong financial position. If you turn to Page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our second quarter results. Our total company bookings for the quarter were $6.8 billion, an increase of about $1.4 billion compared to the second quarter 2013, and on a year-to-date basis were $11.1 billion, an increase of approximately $2.1 billion over the same period last year. It's worth noting that on a trailing 4-quarter basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.06x. For the quarter, international was 24% of our total company bookings and on a year-to-date basis was 30%. For the year, we continue to expect international to be in the range of 35% to 40% of total bookings. And as we mentioned on the April call, our full year 2014 bookings are expected to be $23.5 billion plus or minus $500 million for a book-to-bill ratio of between 1 and 1.05x. And as Tom just mentioned, we have several significant international opportunities that we expect to book in the back half of this year. Now notable awards in the second quarter included $764 million of Missile Systems for TOW missiles for the U.S. Army, U.S. Marines and international customers. Missile Systems also booked $289 million for Standard Missile-6, $259 million for AIM-9X Sidewinders, $179 million for AMRAAM, $130 million for Phalanx Weapon System, $81 million on MALD, $79 million on Rolling Airframe Missiles, and $75 million for SM-3. Additionally, MS booked $140 million on a classified program. IIS booked $515 million on domestic training programs and $160 million on foreign training programs in support of Warfighter FOCUS activities. IIS also booked $521 million for a U.S. Air Force program and approximately $160 million to provide operations and maintenance services on an international radar system. And Space and Airborne Systems booked $129 million to provide radar subsystems for the U.S. Navy. In addition, IIS and SAS booked $379 million and $431 million, respectively, on a number of classified programs. Backlog at the end of the second quarter was $33 billion, and funded backlog was $23.6 billion, up $1.4 billion compared to the same period last year. It's worth noting that approximately 38% of our backlog is comprised of international programs. If you now move to Page 5, for the second quarter 2014, sales exceeded the high end of the guidance we set in April, primarily due to timing at both IIS and SAS. For the second quarter, our international sales were approximately 29% of total sales, and all of our businesses were at or above our expectations. IDS had second quarter 2014 net sales of $1.5 billion. The change from Q2 2013 was primarily due to the completion of production phases on a couple of international Patriot programs and lower sales on a combat tactical radar program. There was also an unfavorable $38 million impact from the Australian Air Warfare Destroyer program, which I'll address in a little more detail in just a moment. In the second quarter 2014, IIS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the change was primarily due to lower volume on our training and mission support programs, partially offset by higher volume on domestic and international classified programs. Missile Systems had second quarter 2014 net sales of $1.5 billion. We saw lower sales for U.S. Army programs in this year's second quarter compared with Q2 2013. And SAS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Lower volume on intersegment sales related to a combat tactical radar program for IDS and classified programs drove the change versus last year. It's worth pointing out that excluding the reduced intersegment sales of approximately $50 million, SAS would have been down about 4%. Moving on to Page 6, our overall company margins were solid. Our reported operating margin was 13.3% and on an adjusted basis was 11.8%. On a year-to-date basis, our operating margin was 13.8% and on an adjusted basis was 12.2%. As a reminder, our second quarter 2014 adjusted margin excludes the favorable FAS/CAS adjustment, which was worth about 150 basis points, or $0.18 per share. So looking at the business margins, at IIS, missiles and SAS, margins were relatively consistent with the same period last year. And at IDS, the change was primarily driven by a decrease in estimated incentive fees on the Australian Air Warfare Destroyer program. This program is structured as an alliance made up of Raytheon, an Australian government-owned naval shipbuilder, and the Commonwealth of Australia. It's a cost-type contract and our fee has a guaranteed amount, but also a variable portion that's contingent upon the aggregate cost performance of the alliance. Now although Raytheon's performance continues on plan from both a cost and schedule standpoint, the shipbuilder is now estimating an increase in their cost to complete the program, which drove the decrease in the estimated incentive fees. Excluding this impact, IDS' margins would have been 16.2% on the quarter. So overall, the company continues to perform well. Turning now to Page 7. Second quarter 2014 EPS was $1.59 and on an adjusted basis was $1.41. EPS for the second quarter 2014 was better than expected, primarily driven by the timing of sales and program performance improvements that were previously expected in the third quarter. On Page 8, we are reaffirming the company's financial outlook for 2014 that we provided in April for net sales, EPS and operating cash flow. We continue to expect our full year 2014 net sales to be in the range of between $22.5 billion and $23 billion. Our full year 2014 EPS is expected to be in the range of between $6.74 and $6.89, and on an adjusted basis, within a range of between $5.76 and $5.91. We have not included in our 2014 guidance either the potential extension of the R&D tax credit or the potential enactment of pension stabilization as part of the extension of the Highway Trust Fund. These would be essentially offsetting if both were enacted. We repurchased 2.6 million shares of common stock for $250 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 312 million and 314 million shares for 2014, which would be a 3% reduction at the midpoint. As I mentioned earlier, operating cash flow in the quarter was strong due to the timing of collections previously expected in the third quarter. We continue to see our 2014 guidance for operating cash flow to be between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion. And as you can see on Page 9, we've adjusted the margin guidance for 3 of our businesses. We've lowered IDS' margins to reflect the adjustment for the Air Warfare Destroyer program and the timing of international awards, which is offset by improvements at missiles and IIS. For the company, we continue to see adjusted operating margin to be in the range of between 12.6% and 12.8% for the full year. On Page 10, we provided some directional guidance on how we currently see the quarterly cadence for sales, EPS and operating cash flow from continuing operations for the balance of 2014. For the third quarter, we now expect sales to be in the range of $5.5 billion to $5.6 billion. Further, we expect margins in the third quarter to be in line with year-to-date performance, in the low 12% range on an adjusted basis. This drives our third quarter EPS guidance of $1.53 to $1.60. We continue to see a ramp in sales in the fourth quarter, which is being driven by awards we were expecting both this quarter and next, including Qatar Patriot and another significant international Patriot award. This increased volume, combined with favorable program mix, drive EPS to a range of $1.75 to $1.83 in the fourth quarter of this year. Now before we open it up for Q&A, let me summarize. We had solid second quarter performance. Our book-to-bill was 1.19 in the quarter and on a trailing 4-quarter basis was 1.06. As we look to the balance of the year, the pipeline of international and domestic opportunities is strong. Our balance sheet position gives us continued flexibility to drive shareholder value in the future, and we remain confident in our outlook for the year. So with that, Tom and I will open up the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Crédit Suisse.
Robert Spingarn - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
I wanted to ask about margins. Dave, you just talked about this, and you alluded to the orders in the quarter that are going to drive sales, the international orders in the second half. I wanted to ask about pricing on these orders and pricing in general, because we have seen segment margins come down here now. I think it's 3 quarters in a row sequentially. And I'm wondering -- you talked about a couple of the puts and takes at IDS. But I'm wondering if just in general, are we seeing lower pricing come into the backlog?
David C. Wajsgras:
So it's a fair question, but we have not seen any pressure on fees or margins from a backlog perspective. We still have a healthy book of business with respect to our international profile. We're continuing to perform well for our domestic and international customers. I think it's probably fair to point out that the second half margin profile is higher than the first half margin profile on -- at the company level. And we do see improvement in the overall margin guidance for both IIS and missiles. And SAS continues to perform quite well, frankly, as does IDS. If you were to exclude the AWD situation that I just explained, margins in Q2 for IDS would've been about 16.2%.
Robert Spingarn - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
So if pricing's locked in for the second half, should we see -- is there any execution risk that might be higher than normal? I just want to get a sense that we don't see a repeat, really, of the first half.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Rob, let me just jump in here. Right now, we do not see any issues relative to execution moving forward. In fact, we've a full-court press on getting more efficiencies out of the business, where you have the second half of the year, significant work in taking out square footage. We're also working our strategic sourcing across the second half of the year as we've done in the first. So we actually see, actually, I would say a stronger foundation relative to margins in the second half with the activities we've put in place. So bottom line is we do not see that pressure that you're talking about.
Robert Spingarn - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And just quickly, Tom, your latest view on M&A versus buybacks?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Well, first of all, and we talked about this before, it's -- first priority remains in growing the company organically. And then we, on the domestic side, we're focused on the hot spots, that includes missile defense, C4ISR, also heavy involvement in cyber. And then we're addressing the international markets, as we discussed in both my script and also in Dave's script. So we're seeing a very large pipeline of organic growth opportunities, both on the domestic side and on the international side. At the same time, we do always look continually for value-added investments outside the company. We continue to look at them in the cyber area and several other areas in our business domain. And as we go forward, we are looking at it in a disciplined approach way. And I can tell you that we, as part of that evaluation, we are looking at what adds value to the shareholders. And if it is a good fit, we will move forward. And as time goes on, we'll let you know as we progress.
David C. Wajsgras:
So let me just add 1 or 2 things to what Tom just went over. I mentioned earlier, and I think everyone's well aware of our strong balance sheet position, especially with respect to cash and liquidity and the strong cash flow performance we've had historically and the strong cash flow performance that we see going forward. So we have, as one of our priorities, returning cash to shareholders, but it's one of multiple priorities. I think we're in such a strong position that one doesn't necessarily preclude the other. We don't see fundamental changes in our capital deployment plans going forward. We do see a continued focus on growing the company, as Tom just mentioned, but that will not preclude us from continuing to have, what I would term, a shareholder-friendly capital deployment plan.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Dave, I wonder if you would just walk us through the various opportunities and risks to the guidance for the rest of the year. Where might we see upside if things go well, and where might we see some downside if things don't go well?
David C. Wajsgras:
Right. So again, it's a good question. On balance, we're very comfortable with the range of guidance that we put out there that incorporates what we would consider all the known risks and opportunities. From an international perspective, these are factored bookings. So I would suggest that if these were to play out as we anticipate, at a full value, we would see some upside from a bookings perspective, which could translate into some other positives from a sales and earnings standpoint. The risk of -- we talked about the CR before. We've built that into our guidance in the fourth quarter. We would expect a short-term CR toward the end of this year. But even if it were to continue into the first part of next year, I wouldn't see that having a major impact on our results. Those are the ones that are sort of top of mind.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, I'll jump in on one, and this is -- there are some potential opportunities in the first quarter of 2015 that could pull into the year. As always, we're always working to pull those opportunities in as soon as possible so we can convert. And I would say that the team is doing a good job on those. And so we look at those as upside potential that we're trying to harvest.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Cai Von Rumohr with Cowen & Company.
Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, how much fee is still at risk on AWD, I mean, if it goes to 0?
David C. Wajsgras:
No, Cai, I'm glad you asked that. So let me just talk about AWD very briefly, okay? So we're a top-tier contractor in Australia to the Australian government. The alliance-based contracting approach for this program was the Commonwealth's preferred method of contracting for the 3-ship AWD program, the Air Warfare Destroyer program. This award provided Raytheon with an opportunity to expand our naval combat system expertise and capabilities to a new customer. So strategically, it's positioned us well for future mission systems work on both surface and subsurface platforms with literarily multi-billions of dollars of opportunity over time. Now first, the customer recognizes Raytheon's good performance on our portion of the work. The Australian government's committed to working collaboratively and constructively with Raytheon and other stakeholders to implement a reform strategy to stop the program's growing cost and schedule overruns, again, from the shipbuilder. And while it's difficult to predict the exact timing of when this ultimately plays out, we don't expect the process to conclude until sometime in 2015. Now with all of that said, inception to date, we've recorded incentive fee of about $80 million. We wrote off about $38 million in the second quarter. So the exposure, the upside, the -- kind of the worst-case exposure at this stage would be about $40 million.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Cai, let me jump in on that to kind of explain that contract versus one of our DoD contracts. It's essentially, it's a cost-plus-fixed-fee contract with an incentive fee on top. So as Dave was saying, our maximum exposure is just the incentive fee. I don't know if that helps or not, but that's...
Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Yes, no, no, no. That's very clear. That was terrific. Your bookings plan is unchanged and you said 35% to 40% international, and you're clearly under-running that. So even to get to the lower end, it looks like you need like $5.2 billion close to what, $5.8 billion, something like that, in international bookings in the second half. How do you expect that to kind of phase between Q3 and Q4? Because you got a lot of Mid-East customers. And usually, with Ramadan, they don't get around to doing things toward the end of the year.
David C. Wajsgras:
So, Cai, the quarterly cadence, as you know, is very difficult to predict. We are very confident with our back-half outlook relative to international bookings. We can't get specific as to exactly where we are in the various stages of completion. Qatar, for example, that was -- recently, the LOA was executed, could be the end of Q3, maybe early Q4. I don't want to get into much more detail on the other large Patriot program that we've been talking about, because it's the customer's request that we don't get into much detail at this point. There's other opportunities as well out of our missiles business and out of our SAS business. But in total, we're looking at about 40% to 50% of our bookings in the second half from international. And I'll repeat it again, we're quite comfortable in our outlook.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And so, Cai, let me just jump in there. Let me add on the Qatar. When you add in the Patriot and the A dock, that covers over half, half of that value you discussed. And there's several other opportunities that will fill in the rest. They're factored. So we feel very confident that we'll be able to achieve that number of about $5.5 billion of the international in the second half.
Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division:
Terrific. And the last one, your pattern of the Q3 and Q4 is really something of a hockey stick. As you pointed out, low 12s margins and then a strong ramp in the fourth quarter. Could you give us some color on like what -- why is it that low? Why does it move up in the fourth quarter, just in a general sense? Is it sort of overhead pressure from bidding this stuff, not getting the contracts? What are the key issues?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, so, Cai, a lot of it has to do with the cadence of the bookings. We had a very strong quarter in missiles, like we said before. We have strong bookings in the back half of the year, particularly international. There's really nothing too remarkable relative to the margin cadence. It's, frankly, not very different than what we were anticipating when we gave guidance on the January call. The performance improvements that were pulled from Q3 into Q2 probably -- are probably worth noting. But again, there's nothing too remarkable with respect to the cadence. The fourth quarter is going to be strong, similar to what we've seen in prior years, and that's just the nature of the business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Nadol with JPMorgan.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Dave, could you give the positives and negatives EAC adjustments gross?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, sure. You mean for the second quarter?
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Yes, please.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. The -- well, the net change was $88 million favorable, and that was about 1.5%. But if you exclude the AWD situation, it was about 2.2% overall. So -- and again, we provide some of the details much... I'm sorry?
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Yes, just in -- I'm sorry, just in dollars, the positives as you give them in every 10-Q.
David C. Wajsgras:
The gross favorable was in line with -- actually, it was a little bit better with respect to comparing to the first quarter. It was about $20 million better, just under $270 million.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. I'm just -- what I'm trying to get at is you've called out the Australian radar last quarter. You called out a little bit this Patriot item, the refurb, I guess. I'm just trying to get a sense as to whether these truly are, particularly this quarter, one-offs that stand out. Or every quarter, you guys have positives and negatives, just like every other defense company. And how much of this is really unusual versus you're calling it out because it's the biggest negative you have?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, I would say the -- clearly, the AWD Destroyer situation is unique. There's no other contract like that within the company. But again, it's worth reiterating. It's a tremendous growth opportunity and something that plays to our strengths. So I would say that is unique, a unique situation. We talked a little bit on the first quarter call about an international Patriot program. It was a refurbishment program. I think we are continuing to see meaningful improvement in that program. And we believe, going to the back half of the year, that the major issues are behind us.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay, and then just over on the Patriot program, could you describe a little bit what you're doing from an industrial standpoint? My sense is that you've had some international programs that are kind of completing and running off, and you were expecting to get some of these 2 big orders that you're just obtaining in the second half earlier. So is there a line break? Are there people that are -- are there layoffs there or people being moved to other areas temporarily? What are you doing? And how much work are you doing in anticipation of these 2 contracts that you're inventorying right now?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Let me take that, Joe. Number one, as you can remember, in the first half -- early first half of the year, we did book a Kuwait deal. So the Kuwait deal is our bridge into the Qatar and then this other opportunity, international opportunity that we talked about. So I think we -- right now, we have the factory level loaded. We continue to perform well. And it is a strong, I would say, producer and supporter of our margins moving forward on the Patriot line, especially on the production aspects of Patriot.
Operator:
. Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Sanford Bernstein.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Your Missile Systems backlog was very strong. And if you look over the last 3 years, we've seen very strong missile demand for Raytheon, for Lockheed, for MBDA. What do you see driving this high level of demand, and where do you see it heading from here?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Well, Doug, I mentioned that I just got back after 2 trips to the Middle East and spending some time at the Farnborough Airshow talking to quite a few of not only our international customers, but also our domestic customers. One of the themes that we -- I heard consistently from leaders of countries across the Middle East, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region was the following, and it's because of all the uncertainty that is out there. They used the same words, slightly differently, but it was the same across. And that was a strong defense is a strong deterrence. So what we're seeing is across all these nations is that they're looking to build up their defenses. They're looking at the weapons they need. And they're making sure they have the right stockpiles to support this deterrence capability so that they can defend their nations. And it's -- so the uncertainty in the world is driving that demand cycle.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
But -- do you see this focused perhaps more on missile demand than maybe in other areas? Because it really does stand out, I think, in terms of growth.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, missile demand, and it's also the overall Patriot systems and the air defense systems. If you remember last year, we booked a system, our NASAM system, in Oman. That, again, is a defensive-type system and, by the way, also happens to use AMRAAMs. But that's the end game here, is that these countries are strengthening their defenses to provide a deterrence against the situations they're seeing in the regions they're located. And that's where the uptick's coming from.
David C. Wajsgras:
And I think what you're seeing is a strong pull demand for both the tactical missiles as well as our strategic programs. And when those come together, it bodes quite well for our Tucson operation, which, as you well know, we are the largest missile maker in the world and there is a lot of demand, both domestically and internationally, for the full spectrum of products that we're offering out there.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And we're seeing strong demand for air-to-air. We're seeing strong demand for air-to-surface. And strong demand for surface-to-surface and surface-to-air across the board. But when you roll it all up, it's all about these nations wanting to provide strong defense for their country. And the reason they want that strong defense is they want to make anyone out there think twice before they do anything. And that's driving the demand, and it's just based on personal contact with the heads of the militaries of these countries.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. And then before, you talked a little bit about the importance of organic investment. And if I have this right, I mean, your intent is to increase that investment, as many of your peers are, in, presumably, both R&D and CapEx. But can you talk a little bit about the scale of organic investment you're looking at and the time frame over which you determine the business case when you make these investment decisions?
David C. Wajsgras:
So let me just start out briefly and then we'll add some -- Tom will add some color. But I do want to remind everyone that back in January when we gave our initial guidance, we talked about strategic investments that we were going to embark on for the company both in 2014 and beyond. I think we talked at that point about 20 basis points' worth of investment to strategically and organically grow the company. We're continuing down that path and have been. We see that as a critical tool to grow the company organically. And again, it's part of our overall thinking on the best way to deploy our capital.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
So I'll jump in on that. A key element to our win on FAB-T and, last year, on Next Generation Jammer and AMDR, was our investments in technology to bring the best possible capabilities to our customers. So we continue to invest to achieve a competitive advantage in the marketplace, both on the domestic side and also on the international marketplace.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
And is there any time frame that you tend to focus on when you make these decisions in terms of when the returns would likely come?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
We break it up into almost 3 areas. I mean, there is -- we look as far out as 10 years out in terms of where we think technology is moving. We want to make sure that we're in the right spot at that time. And I'll -- then my example to that is the GaN technology we have talked about in the past. It was about a 10-year investment process in that to set us up to win some major programs like AMDR and also Next Generation Jammer. We also look out about the 5-year period in terms of what's changed and making sure that we're focused in that area in terms of what investments we need to make to be prepared to win business in that area, or keep our products relevant. For example, on Patriot, we continue to invest in Patriot to make it relevant in the latest technologies so that we're competitive in the global marketplace. And then we also look in the near term, the 1 to 2 years, to see what tweaks we need to make in terms of our technology investments to ensure that we're competitive on, I guess, the relevant competitions that are going on in that time period. Hopefully, that helps. But it's not just tomorrow. It really is kind of broken down into these 3 major time chunks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Godyn with Morgan Stanley.
John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Guys, Raytheon has done a great job positioning itself for a lot of these international opportunities, and we can see that in international sales as a percentage of revenue and what you said about bookings. I'm just curious, what inning do you think we're in, in terms of this pretty significant international growth cycle?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
I really appreciate the question. So let me tell you why. We reset the game. So we're back -- we've reset it back to the first inning, and let me explain that. We've recently made some major changes in our international structure and focusing on a set of countries and looking at countries in a different way, international countries. And the way we're looking at them is each country as a market and understanding what elements of that country need solutions that Raytheon can provide and can provide in a better way than our competitors. And that's starting to pay off and it's filling the pipeline for the future. And I would say we have a lot of upside potential in the international marketplace because of this focus and this strategy we have. We've been, for example, in the Middle East for 48 years, I may have talked about this on a phone call before, but we give out something called a service award pin. And a couple of years back, I was in Saudi and gave out the 2 40-year service pins to 2 Saudi nationals. So we're heavily engaged in the Middle East. We've been in Japan, for example, for over 50 years. And we have a very strong brand internationally. And I think that all together our time in these places, the fact that we have operated successfully on programs -- in many cases, you can check our records on some of these international programs we have. We've taken over from our competitors who have not been able to complete the programs. So we have the solid reputation and brand. We are leveraging that into essentially set the clock back to the first inning and putting more folks on the ground. We're also doing much more work in localization. And we've significantly increased our global supply chain here over the last several years. The bottom line is we're essentially repositioning the company to move beyond our 30% revenue for this year in terms of international. I don't know if that helps, but you -- we just can't let -- keep going inning -- inning to inning. You got to reset the game every now and then. And this is -- in the last 6 months, we've been off resetting the game.
John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
That's very helpful. And when we think about the company big picture, could we get to 40% international sales as a percentage of revenue? Are those types of targets realistic long term?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. I would say that they're absolutely realistic long term. I'd rather not give a specific time frame. But if you just simply look at where we will likely end up from a backlog perspective at the end of this year, we will be in the 40% range plus or minus, depending on how exactly things play out. But I would say longer term, you should be thinking about the company as a 40-plus percent international company and view us more from a global perspective than just a domestic exporter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Dave, I was wondering if you could help me with this. And I know somebody asked somewhat earlier. But if I look at the first quarter, which was higher, the second quarter was comfortably ahead of the 21.5% of the year's earnings that you projected. You're buying back at a higher rate year-to-date than you had been running. I guess, why aren't you in a position to be talking about a higher guidance? What's the risks in the second half that maybe I'm not seeing?
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. So we are tracking to the guidance that we provided back in January. There's strong program performance at both missiles and IIS, and that offsets the shift in the cadence at IDS for some of the international awards that we addressed earlier. These moved from sort of first half to second half, is the best way to think about it. And we also had, again, the AWD impact. We're continuing to see strength in the second half at SAS, particularly from a sales standpoint. Now I think I understand what you're getting at. We had a strong earnings quarter in the second quarter. We exceeded the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance by about $0.11. But the improvement is driven by volume and performance improvements that were largely expected in the third quarter. So again, we do feel good about the year. In particular, we see strong second half bookings. And sequentially, sequentially now, we see low single-digit sales growth from the first half to the second half. I think when you stand back and you go through the numbers flow that is associated with what I just described, I think you would reach the same conclusion. I'll point this out for probably the fourth or fifth time
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then just looking on the P&L, why was G&A up in dollars as a percentage of sales in the second quarter? Is there something unusual, or is this the right level to be thinking about?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, there's a couple of things going on, and we had some public disclosure on this. There's a new stock compensation program. And the accounting was such that we recorded that in the second quarter, and that's in G&A. The CAS harmonization that we've been talking about for a while is also part of the G&A line. We are awaiting -- there's a timing, with respect to an insurance recovery for some property damage that we had that shifted into the fourth quarter and came out of the second quarter. So by and large, I would say, again, there's nothing too remarkable. But with the CAS harmonization and some of the other things that we've talked about, G&A will likely be higher than what it's been in the past. But I do want to point out that when you stand back and look at the overall cost structure of the company, that is continuing to improve. It's just where these expenses and expense reductions are taking place.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay, and last question for Tom is just, I don't know if you addressed Turkey in terms of the Patriot, but it's been quite a turnaround for that opportunity. And recently, I get there was a down select. How should we size that opportunity to think about where that goes from here?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
On Turkey or Poland? Which one do you want?
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Turkey was what I was thinking, because you talked about Poland.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
So on Turkey, I mean, there's -- they're in discussions with the Chinese. There was lot of press out there. They have not concluded the negotiations. They have asked us to extend the validity of our proposal, which we have done. As you may know, the U.S. government and NATO have significant concerns relative to a Chinese solution for Turkey and being able to tie that Chinese solution into the NATO system. So they've -- both the U.S. government and NATO, have raised this issue to the highest levels of Turkey's government, and that is being worked in the background. But we continue to stand ready with our Patriot offering. We believe we have a solid offering that includes coproduction and some co-development in Turkey to enable the Turkish government to essentially increase their integrated air and missile defense capabilities for their nation. So we stand ready for the next steps.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton.
Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division:
Maybe one for Dave. I just wanted to kind of get a little more color on CapEx. Last year, you were about $330 million in CapEx spend, which was below guidance. This year, I think between PP&E and software, your guidance is about $450 million according to the last Q. I was just wondering, are you still tracking to that number? And then directionally, as you think about footprint reductions, should we think CapEx is headed up, down, flat as we go forward? Just some color on that area, please?
David C. Wajsgras:
Sure. So we've talked about investing in ourselves, and we're continuing to do that. Tom spoke before about strategic and technology investments. Some of that is part of what you're seeing in our increasing capital this year. We are continuing to make good progress on utilization improvements. We're tracking to about a 2% reduction this year. We talked about a goal of a 10% utilization improvement over the next 3 to 5 years, and we have plans in place and are moving towards those objectives. So I would say from a -- if you stand back and look at what's going on from a capital spend perspective, I think we are driving value the right way through those type of investments.
Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. So, Dave, is this kind of like new tooling to [indiscernible] system?
David C. Wajsgras:
I'm sorry. This is like new -- say it again?
Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division:
So these type of investments is an example of sort of new tooling for [ph] better utilization? I'm just trying to understand why -- what was really driving the need for the investment.
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. So we talked about the R&D-type investments, right? The technology and strategic investments. Some of these may be building prototypes and things like that going forward. With respect to real estate, when we're consolidating facilities, we have to build out new space with skips and additional sort of special things that we use at our business. So some of that is built into the capital. But again, I would say that these are all things that we're doing today to improve the business going forward.
Peter J. Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. I understand much better. And are you approaching peak, or is there still more to go?
David C. Wajsgras:
I would -- I'll talk a little more about that probably on the third quarter call. At this stage, you probably want to think about it as flattish as we go into 2015. This isn't formal guidance, but kind of an early perspective is we're going to continue to do the type of things that we've embarked on in '14. So I would say to think about it as flattish, that's probably the best path forward here.
Operator:
. Your last question comes from the line of David Strauss with UBS.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
International versus domestic sales growth that you've got baked in for the second half of the year, how does that break out?
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. So in the second half of this year, we're seeing domestic sales growth probably down maybe 1% to 5% or 6%. From an international perspective, we're seeing sales growth of maybe 2% to 5-plus percent on the back half of the year. And then if you take in combination, we're essentially in line with where we were in 2013.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. And then, Dave, I have to ask you on pension.
David C. Wajsgras:
No pension questions today. It's a sensitive subject [ph].
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Yes. I know you have your annual update in Q3. The last couple of years that's been a positive upper for you. Can you talk about that? And then everything else pension-related, CAS and mortality and all of that, what's kind of changed relative to 3 months ago?
David C. Wajsgras:
So you're right, we'll talk about it in a little more detail in the third quarter. And it's very difficult to forecast how that's going to play out with respect to truing up actuarial assumptions. With respect to the new mortality tables that are going to be used in the future, I mentioned on the last call that we have already taken that into account in our earlier assumptions and started to do that next year. So we don't see a -- any kind of significant impact from a pension standpoint on that or from that. We mentioned a little earlier about the legislation with respect to pension interest rate stabilization. It was first enacted in 2012. And there's a bill that's, right now, in the Senate, not enacted yet, but it could be going forward. Now there's a lot of moving parts here with respect to stabilization. Initially, it affects funding, CAS expense and taxes, and then going forward also impacts that FAS expense. So we're evaluating our funding strategy under the legislation. And we also have to take into account the discount rate environment, demographics, return on assets. I did mention in my earlier remarks that if the House bill were enacted in its current form, it could impact us by about $0.10. But we see that being offset by the R&D tax credit, which is also worth about $0.10 assuming that's enacted. Again, we'll provide further guidance on the Q3 call and give a little more detail then.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. And last one on the international side, the bookings strength that you're talking about in the second half of the year, you're anticipating in the second half of the year, what would that do from the perspective of bringing in advances in the back half of the year?
David C. Wajsgras:
It would be a plus from an advance standpoint.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Any sort of quantification?
David C. Wajsgras:
No. I'd not rather not get too specific on that at this point. I appreciate the question, but we can't get too specific. Again, these are factored, and the advances are also factored.
Todd B. Ernst:
All right. Thank you all for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter conference call in October. Glenn?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Executives:
Todd B. Ernst - Former Vice President of Investor Relations Thomas A. Kennedy - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and Director David C. Wajsgras - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Research Division George Shapiro David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division Peter J. Arment - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Taheesha, and I'll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Todd B. Ernst:
Thank you, Taheesha. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on our first quarter conference call. The results that we announced this morning, the audio feed of this call and the slides that we'll reference are available on our website at raytheon.com. Following this morning's call, an archive of both the audio replay and a printable version of the slides will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website. With me today are Tom Kennedy, our Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Wajsgras, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll start with some brief remarks by Tom and Dave and then move on to questions. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to caution you regarding our forward-looking statements. Any matters discussed today that are not historical facts, particularly comments regarding the company's future plans, objectives and expected performance, constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on a wide range of assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a range of uncertainties and risks that are summarized at the end of our earnings release and are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. During the first quarter of 2014, Raytheon delivered solid operating results. Our margins, cash flow and EPS were all ahead of expectations, and our bookings and sales were in line with our plan. I'm proud of the team as they continue to deliver strong program performance in a challenging environment. As our results show, we continue to build upon a strong foundation that creates value for customers and shareholders. Further, we are continuously positioning the company for future growth and value creation. Our goal is to ensure the ongoing strong alignment of Raytheon's broad portfolio of capabilities with the needs of our global customers. To do this, we continue to prioritize our investments with a focus on enhancing our competitive advantage and leveraging our capabilities to grow globally in new markets, as we've done recently in Oman and we are going to do in Qatar. Furthermore, we continue to strengthen our "one company" collaboration to improve our performance in execution and growth. And we're attacking costs by leveraging commercial best practices to drive value and affordability. As many of you already know, Raytheon's international reach is a key element of our solid foundation and an important differentiator for the company. It's an area that holds great potential for our future. In the first quarter, international bookings were 39% of total bookings, and international now comprises 39% of our total backlog. I'd like to point out 2 key international bookings that we received in the quarter. We booked $515 million for an award to provide Kuwait 2 Patriot fire units. This adds to Kuwait's existing inventory of 5 fire units and reflects continued demand for our combat-proven integrated air and missile defense systems in the global marketplace. We also booked $195 million for an international cyber program. This booking demonstrates the significant value of our cyber capabilities and solutions to a broader spectrum of markets and customers. It also demonstrates our ability to leverage our international market channels to expand our cyber business. We continue to make progress on new opportunities in Qatar, which initially includes Patriot systems and Command and Control capabilities. Qatar publicly announced their intentions to proceed with the Patriot procurement at the DIMDEX show and the LOA is awaiting final approval. Additionally, we continue to pursue a number of other international Patriot opportunities that include Poland, South Korea and others. Closer to home, we had a very key international win on the North Warning System for Canada. This program supports the operation and maintenance of 47 radar sites across the Arctic that supply tracking data to NORAD. We won the competition late in the first quarter and the booking will be reflected in the second quarter. This is a great example of the diversity of both our portfolio and the international markets that Raytheon serves. And after the close of the quarter, an international customer executed a contract with the U.S. government for TOW missiles. We expect this to result in a booking of just over $650 million in Q2. Domestically, we're encouraged by the President's fiscal year '15 budget request, and we welcome the budget stability afforded by the Bipartisan Budget Act. Alongside the budget released in March, the DoD also published the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review. A consistent theme throughout all of these and other recent DoD strategic documents is key support for capabilities that play to Raytheon's strengths including missile defense, cyber, EW and ISR. Of note, one of the areas in the fiscal year '15 budget that received the strongest support was cyber, where the budget request increased 9%. In my more than 30 years with the company, and in all my roles, our top priority has always been continuous improvement. It's part of the culture of Raytheon at all levels and is a key driver behind our operating performance. We will continue to build on our success by pressing forward with our many efficiency initiatives, including optimizing our supply chain through strategic sourcing, reducing our fixed cost base through footprint consolidation and providing innovative and more efficient shared services and solutions to Raytheon's businesses and functions through our Global Business Services group. Our overall goal is to provide our customers with not just the most innovative solutions, but also to do so at a lower cost. As we look to the future, accelerating growth is a key priority for the company. To achieve this, we are focused on investing in the right technology through increased research and development investments which support our drive for competitive advantage. As we've highlighted on prior calls, our R&D investments have yielded significant takeaway wins and we are well-positioned for the next generation of sensors, effectors and cyber capabilities. Similarly, we continue to look for value-added investments outside the company. Over the past several years, we have made a number of acquisitions, primarily in the cyber area, which has significantly enhanced our position in this growth market. Looking ahead, one of the key objectives is to continue to unlock the value of our cyber capabilities to meet the growing global demand in both defense and commercial markets. We continue to see acquisitions as a key part of our long-term strategy. In addition to this growth focus, our capital deployment strategy includes returning value to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. Consistent with this approach, we repurchased $200 million of stock in the quarter, and we announced last month that we'll increase our dividend by 10%. We have now raised our annual dividend every year for the past 10 years. We have also invested in making our processes and systems world-class to support our strong execution-focused culture. And we've invested in our people, our most valuable asset. These execution excellence and people investments provide us with a competitive advantage. It's what makes us unique. It allows us to retain and attract our world-class talent and provide an environment where our people can achieve their maximum potential for our global customers. I feel privileged to lead this great company. I want to thank the team for a good start out of the gate in 2014 and for support as we build our strong foundation and embrace the opportunities before us. With that, let me turn it over to Dave.
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay, thanks, Tom. And good morning, everyone. I have a few opening remarks, starting with the first quarter highlights, and then we'll move on to questions. During my remarks, I'll be referring to the web slides that we issued earlier this morning. Okay, if everyone would turn to Page 3. We're pleased with the solid performance the team delivered in the first quarter, with sales, EPS, margins and operating cash flow all at or better than expectations. It's a good start to the year and positions us well for achieving our full year outlook. Our EPS from continuing operations was $1.87. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.43. I'll discuss this in more detail in just a moment. Operating margin was strong at 14.3%, and on an adjusted basis was 12.7%. And sales of $5.5 billion were at the high end of our sales guidance range. Operating cash flow of $659 million was better than our prior guidance, driven by the timing of collections that were previously expected in the second quarter. During the quarter, the company bought back 2.1 million shares of common stock under the share repurchase program for $200 million. I also want to point out that we're reaffirming the guidance that we provided in January, which I'll discuss further in just a few minutes. Turning now to Page 4, let me start by providing some detail on our first quarter results. Company bookings for the quarter were $4.3 billion, slightly ahead of our internal plans. International awards represented 39% of the total. As you may recall, we had strong bookings in the back half of 2013, so on a trailing 4-quarter basis, the book-to-bill is 0.98x. And as we mentioned on the January call, we expect our full year 2014 bookings to be $23.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and a book-to-bill ratio of between 1.0 and 1.05x. Notable bookings in the quarter included $515 million at IDS to provide Patriot air and missile defense capability for Kuwait, and $98 million to provide Patriot engineering services for the U.S. and international customers. IIS booked $111 million on the Joint Polar Satellite System program for NASA and $104 million on the Warfighter FOCUS in support of both domestic and foreign training programs. Missile Systems booked $479 million for Standard Missile-3 for the Missile Defense Agency. Missile Systems also booked $164 million for Paveway and $86 million for Maverick missiles, both for international customers. Space and Airborne Systems booked $116 million to provide radar spares for an international customer and $81 million for software enhancements to AESA radars for the U.S. Air Force. In addition, IIS and SAS booked $535 million and $216 million, respectively, on a number of classified contracts, including $195 million for international cyber at IIS. We continue to expand our cyber business to provide products and large-scale solutions for both domestic and international customers. Backlog at the end of the first quarter was $32.2 billion, and on a funded basis was $22.7 billion. It's worth noting that approximately 39% of our backlog is now comprised of international programs. If you'd move to Page 5, as I just mentioned, for the first quarter of 2014, sales were at the high end of the guidance we set in January. Looking at sales by business, IDS had first quarter 2014 net sales of $1.5 billion. The change from Q1 2013 was primarily due to the planned completion of certain production phases on 2 international Patriot programs. In the first quarter of 2014, IIS had net sales of $1.5 billion. Compared with the same quarter last year, the change was primarily due to lower volume on our training programs. Missile systems had first quarter 2014 net sales of $1.6 billion. We saw lower sales for U.S. Army programs in this year's first quarter compared to Q1 2013. And SAS had net sales of $1.4 billion. Lower volume on tactical, communications and classified programs drove the change versus last year. In addition, it's worth noting that $68 million of the lower volume is from reduced intersegment sales related to close combat tactical radars. Excluding this, SAS would be down approximately 8%. Moving ahead to Page 6, we're pleased by our overall company margins, which exceeded our guidance. Our operating margin was 14.3%. And on an adjusted basis, was 12.7%. As a reminder, our first quarter 2014 adjusted margin excludes the favorable FAS/CAS Adjustment, which was worth 160 basis points or $0.18 per share. Our focus on execution, productivity and efficiency continues to be reflected in our financial results. We remain committed to driving cost out of the business. A good example of this is our improving facilities utilization that we've discussed on past calls. We're reducing our real estate footprint and have been for a couple of years now. We made good progress in 2013 realizing a 3% reduction in square footage over 2012. And we see a couple of percent more reduction in 2014. I'd like to mention 1 example of an action we just initiated that will begin to drive savings in 2015. We now plan to move 1,700 people from our Garland, Texas location to a more efficient facility in nearby Richardson, Texas. This will result in a net reduction of over 600,000 square feet beginning next year. We've picked [ph] similar projects that will enable us to hit an approximate 10% targeted reduction in our company-wide real estate over the next few years. So looking at business margins. IIS and Missiles margins were up in the quarter compared with the same period last year. Solid overall program performance and favorable mix drove improvement at both businesses. The change in IDS was primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies in last year's first quarter. I do want to point out that in this year's first quarter, there was a program where the assumed cost to complete increased over prior estimates, and this was one of the drivers in the quarterly comparison. And SAS margins of 13.6% were down compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by higher license royalty payments received in the first quarter of 2013. Turning now to Page 7. First quarter 2014 EPS was $1.87 and on an adjusted basis, was $1.43. I've already addressed the changes in operations and share count. Now you may recall that in Q1 2013, we included the benefit of the retroactive impact of the 2012 R&D tax credit. We excluded this credit in our adjusted earnings. Looking at the first quarter 2014, as I discussed on January's call, our lower tax rate is driven in part by the repatriation of cash. This action was completed in January and resulted in a favorable impact of $0.25 per share in the first quarter 2014. It's worth noting that this impacts the full year tax rate by just under 3 percentage points. On Page 8, we are reaffirming the financial outlook for 2014 that we provided in January for net sales, EPS and operating cash flow. We still expect our full year 2014 net sales to be in the range of between $22.5 billion and $23 billion. Our full year 2014 EPS is expected to be in a range of between $6.74 and $6.89, and on an adjusted basis was in the range of between $5.76 and $5.91. As a reminder, we have not included the possible extension of the R&D tax credit in our 2014 guidance. If the legislation passes, it would favorably impact the effective tax rate by about 100 basis points and our EPS by about $0.10. We repurchased 2.1 million shares of common stock for $200 million in the quarter and continue to see our diluted share count in the range of between 312 million and 314 million shares for 2014, which would be a 3% reduction at the midpoint. As I mentioned earlier, operating cash flow in the quarter was strong due to the timing of collections previously expected in the second quarter. We continue to see our 2014 guidance for operating cash flow to be between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion. Looking beyond 2014, we don't foresee any notable FAS/CAS impact to what we discussed on the January call, based on the new mortality assumptions recently published in draft form by the Society of Actuaries. And as you can see on Page 9, we've included guidance by business, which is unchanged from our prior outlook. On Page 10, we provided some directional guidance on how we currently see the quarterly cadence for sales, EPS and operating cash flow for the balance of 2014. As we discussed on the January call, sales were expected to ramp up throughout the year. In the first half of 2014, we still expect sales to be down on a percentage basis in the mid- to high-single digits. Keep in mind, sales in the first half of the year -- the first half of last year, predominantly Q2, were relatively strong due in part to some quick-turn book-and-bill business. The back-half sales for this year, 2014, are expected to be in line to slightly up versus 2013. And if you compare second-half sales to first-half sales, we expect to see mid-single-digit growth sequentially. As you may recall, our 2013 bookings finished strong, particularly with respect to international. We booked Oman GBAD and the South Korean RACR program in the fourth quarter. In Q1, we were awarded 2 Patriot units for Kuwait and we also booked a key international cyber program. Looking at the second quarter, we anticipate strong orders internationally for missiles and integrated air missile defense programs. These awards are all key drivers of our second-half sales performance. Before concluding, I'd like to spend just a minute talking about our capital deployment strategy. Raytheon has had strong cash generation over the past several years and we expect this to continue. Our first priority is to invest in ourselves to support future growth and efficiency initiatives. Further, an important part of our strategy is to return cash to shareholders. In the first quarter, we increased our dividend by 10% per share. We plan to continue our share repurchase program, reducing the diluted share base over time. Additionally, we continue to look for acquisitions that will drive growth in strategic areas and enhance shareholder value. We'll continue to unlock the potential of our cyber capabilities to meet the growing global demand in both defense and commercial markets, and we see additional acquisitions as part of this long-term focus. Importantly, our cash balances and cash flow allow us flexibility and provide sufficient capacity, both in the near and long term, to support a balanced capital deployment strategy going forward. In summary, we saw good performance in the first quarter. We're executing well. We continue to drive solid operating performance and we're taking costs out of the business. We have a healthy international pipeline, and we expect to improve our sales trajectory in the back half of this year. We remain well positioned with our domestic customers' priority areas and continue to be aligned with the evolving priorities of our international customers. Our objective is to drive the business to maximize value for all of our customers and shareholders. So with that, Tom and I will open the call up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from the line of Joe Nadol from JPMorgan.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
First question is just on the IDS contract you guys mentioned. Any more color you can give on the growth in -- or how much that cost you in EBIT in the quarter? How big is the contract? The confidence in your new cost assumptions, et cetera?
David C. Wajsgras:
The IDS contract, specifically, which one are you referring to, Joe?
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
The one I think you mentioned that impacted your margin in the quarter.
David C. Wajsgras:
Are you talking Patriot for Kuwait?
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
No, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned in your description of margins at IDS that there was a contract for which...
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Joe, I'll take that real quick. That was a Patriot program we had and there was a refurbishment, and some of the refurbishment elements were required and initially anticipated, so we did book an upcharge on that. That is a profitable program, but it's requiring us to bring in some more additional material into it to complete the refurb.
David C. Wajsgras:
I apologize, Joe. Yes, there's a -- it's a contract that's been in production for a while. There was a slight shift in the cadence of the material that's required. So there's a slight impact in the quarter. It shows up in the EAC adjustments, but the contract remains very profitable.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Understood, okay. And then, just secondly, I was interested in more on the cyber booking internationally. I don't know how much you can talk about it. It -- just from a high level, it always seemed to me that cyber is more difficult -- a more difficult line of business to transfer internationally, more of it is service-oriented than a lot of things you do, conceptually anyway. And so what's really the opportunity to do more of the same, more details you can give on it?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, Joe. I think it's been a focus of ours for several years, to leverage our international channels to drive our cyber business globally. And I think, we were just -- we are seeing -- we saw it last -- late last year, we saw it this year that we're being successful in doing that. And I think the -- one of the main reasons is that we're very credible worldwide relative to our cyber capabilities, and we have a strong international brand relative to the Raytheon company itself. The combination of those 2 is that we're seeing significant opportunities across the globe for our -- essentially our cyber capabilities, our knowledge of cyber and also our cyber products.
Joseph B. Nadol - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. Just back on that first -- that contract we talked about first. Are you guys going to quantify the specific EAC adjustment or are you not going to do that?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, the EAC adjustments overall for the quarter ran at about 2.2% of revenue. The IDS -- the change for IDS was about $34 million, $35 million. And that one adjustment made up about half of it. That's the reason we wanted to point it out.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Yair Reiner from Oppenheimer.
Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
First, a follow-up on Joe's question. You mentioned in your discussion of cyber that you'd like to do more on the commercial side. Can you give us a sense of how much of your cyber business today is commercial? And maybe where you'd like that to be in 4 or 5 years?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So it's an area that we have participated in for a while now. From a financial perspective, it's not significant at this point. We do offer a broad range of products and services and solutions across various customers. And I think equally important, across various information assurance domains. We've been talking about this and thinking about this from a strategic standpoint for quite a while. We do see ourselves expanding in that area. But at this stage, I don't think it would be prudent to get specific as to how significant that could become over the next 3 to 5 years. With that said, it is a key focus area for us both from a government standpoint and from a commercial standpoint. And we do consider it an important growth area.
Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And then, one more, if I could. You've had 2 significant new program wins here relatively recently with the Next Generation Jammer and AMDR. I'm hoping you can help us understand when those begin to hit the P&L? And what the margin profile of those are going to look like?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
So let me take that, Yair. Obviously both of those wins were very important to the Raytheon Company. They're both franchise wins and essentially based on the investments that we have made in research and development over several years. And that essentially bore the fruits of that effort. As we move forward, right now we're in the development stages of the program. And so we will not be seeing the high production-type of margins out for about 4 years. But we do have healthy margins on both programs through the development phases.
Yair Reiner - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
And then the cadence of the revenues?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Cadence of the revenues? It's a...
David C. Wajsgras:
The cadence of the revenues, they ramp up throughout this year and become more significant as we get into '15.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Sam Pearlstein from Wells Fargo.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Can you talk a little bit about just on -- on one of the slides on SAS, you called out the $68 million impact from intercompany sales. I don't remember you calling that out before. So is there something different for specific programs or is it just larger this quarter for some reason?
David C. Wajsgras:
Well, the -- it's army-related. The end product is a battlefield radar that's sold out of our IDS division. The reason I pointed that out is because it's a significant intersegment change year-over-year of $65 million, $70 million. The other businesses have intersegment sales that are in line with last year. So just on a purely external basis, SAS was down a little over 8% and I just thought it was important to point it out.
Samuel J. Pearlstein - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then, just when -- you mentioned the capital deployment question and I guess, I'm just thinking more broadly, which is, you have done a lot of work throughout the 2000, I guess to go from, call it, a BBB to an A rating. And just thinking about your credit profile. How important is that and in the context of what you would do with your capital structure and your cash?
David C. Wajsgras:
So we are pleased with what we've been able to do from a balance sheet perspective, driven by the strong cash flow over the last number of years. We are essentially an A- rating across-the-board. And we feel that between BBB+ an A- is about the range that we are targeting and comfortable to stay within. From a capital deployment standpoint, I suggested in my opening remarks that we would continue a balanced approach. There is a likelihood that we will see more from an acquisition perspective going forward than we've done certainly in the last year or 2. Last year was pretty quiet on the acquisition front and you can see that when you look at our balance sheet. Going forward, I wouldn't expect wholesale changes from the way we're thinking about capital deployment or the way we're thinking about the rating.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Robert Stallard from Royal Bank of Canada.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Might as well carry on from where Sam was talking about, the balance sheet situation, but maybe from a different angle. I'm wondering if this shift towards 40% of sales being export also changes your thinking about where you expect the balance sheet to be or what sort of cash debt holding you should have going forward.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So international, as you know, typically has a slightly improved cash profile when compared to our domestic business. I think when you cut through the details, that simply gives us more opportunity with respect to our capital deployment priorities as we look ahead to 2015 and '16. I think that that's really the short version. We're going to continue to invest in ourselves as a priority, I think Tom mentioned that earlier, both from a cost efficiency standpoint -- for example, we have allocated about $100 million to facility utilization improvements this year. We're continuing to invest and increase the investment in R&D as we go forward. And there is some capital associated with that. I'll say this again because it's worth repeating, we fully intend to continue to return value to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. And like I said, we have an increasing focus on value-creating acquisitions. I do want to point out one last thing. The first quarter of this year, we posted the highest cash flow performance, operating cash flow performance in over a decade. So I think your question is the right one, and we'll continue to drive cash flow for the company in that regard.
Robert Stallard - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Maybe a follow-up on your favorite topic of pension space. I was wondering if you could very simplistically explain why these mortality table changes aren't going to much have an impact.
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. So I think different companies use varying assumptions as they go forward and suggest outlooks and forecasts for pensions. Our assumptions are such that the new mortality tables that are in draft form and recently published wouldn't suggest a big change for us from a FAS/CAS standpoint, or -- and you didn't ask this, or from a cash flow standpoint. As a matter of fact, if you look over the 3-year period, 2014, '15, '16, it actually suggests a slight increase in the net funding cash flow performance for pensions.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Jason Gursky from Citigroup.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Dave, just a quick question for you. Can you just update us on e-Borders, in the case going on over there? And then, Tom, a bit broader question for you on the international side. I'm just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the competitive environment there, both from a price perspective, as well as a technology perspective, particularly in missile defense, looking at the Chinese products out there and the potential threat that MEADS might offer up as well. And then, just the pipeline itself, how far out that pipeline reaches and whether we ought to be expecting continued solid demand in growth potentially coming out of international markets to the rest of the [indiscernible].
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, so let me start by talking about the e-Borders situation. The arbitration proceedings in the e-Borders matter, as you know, were initiated in 2010. And hearings before the arbitration panel were concluded in 2013. We expect the decision from the panel sometime in the first half of 2014. That's our expectations, but it's behind closed doors and we'll see when we get a decision. That's all we have.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
So Jason, on the international side, obviously, right now there's a significant threat across multiple regions. If you're fairly knowledgeable about the Middle East, you understand the concerns about Iran by several countries in that region. And for example, that's why we're seeing that uptick in Qatar and several other countries relative to the integrated air missile defense. Our brand in that region is very strong. We've been in the region for 50 years. We've delivered products, supported product, and have provided, we call it, solutions that were very well-matched to the customers' needs. So bottom line is, we have a great relationship with those Middle East countries in terms of future product upgrades, and then also future product solutions in -- not just the integrated air missile defense, but also C4I and several other technology areas in ISR. One other question you brought up is how does -- I think you're alluding is how does Patriot compete with MEADS and then how does Patriot compete with the Chinese? A significant change to Patriot occurred, we just completed it with the U.A.E., which was about a $500 million nonrecurring upgrade to the complete Patriot system, which has significantly improved not only its capabilities, but also its availability, reliability and maintainability. So right now it's the only system out there that has those capabilities that has been fielded. MEADS has not been fielded yet and has not been completely tested. So it has work to go before it gets to the availability levels and support levels that Patriot is already achieving today. Furthermore, we continue to make investments in Patriot, too, for future upgrades. And we look forward to them. If you look at the budget and the outlay for the DoD, there is money in there for some upgrades on Patriot. They may be competitive as we move forward. One of them is an AESA radar for Patriot, which obviously is in our -- straight and down center of our capability area and we will definitely be -- are pursuing that upgrade. So I think Patriot, overall, is very strong, not only internationally, but also domestically. And it's being funded very strongly in both areas.
Jason M. Gursky - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
How far up does your pipeline stretch of potential deals? Are you looking at things that will get fulfilled out into the '18 and '19 period?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
We have a pretty healthy 5 year for integrated air missile defense. For example in '14, we're awaiting the Qatar Patriot award, and there's also Qatar Command and Control that's associated with that. And then when go into '15, there's upgrades in Korea and there's also a Poland competition that we are presently in. So there's an uptick there. And then, as you may know, once -- there is already 12 countries that have Patriot and there are continuous upgrades that occur across all those 12 countries. And with the Qatar addition, that will make it 13, and then when we win Poland, that will make it 14 countries. So a strong base, we're integrating our missile defense. Then we also have a -- our NASAM system, which we had a contract award last year with Oman. So we have not just the Patriot system, which is a higher end, but we also have the next level right below that for cruise missile defense and the airborne -- air breathing type of threats. So I think bottom line is the portfolio is strong, our customer pull is very strong over the 5 years.
Operator:
Or next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland from Barclays.
Carter Copeland - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Just a couple of quick ones. The first, Dave, if you could just quantify domestic versus international growth for the quarter? And then secondly, on this facility reduction, square footage reduction and the cost actions there. How much of that is sort of, to Tom's comment, continuous improvement versus kind of a new initiative? And what's sort of behind that? Is there any -- is it reactionary or proactive? Any color you can help us with on that? Is that a new effort? And if so, why?
David C. Wajsgras:
Sure. So on the -- on your first question, on the -- in quarter 1 of this year, domestic sales were down about 7%. International was slightly off at about -- down at about 4% over last year. We did mention that 2 long-duration production programs in our air missile defense area were scaling down. And we expect a pretty meaningful ramp as we get to the back half for the year in that segment of the business. With respect to the facilities utilization improvement program that we have, we've been working on that for a while now. Last year, we took out about 3% of our overall square footage. We're now down to about 28.5 million square feet globally. I would say this is not at all reactionary, it's something that we have started focusing on a few years ago. We're continuing to focus on that area. We have a 10% overall targeted reduction in square footage over the next few years. This year, we -- I mentioned earlier, it's going to -- from the investment side, cost about $100 million; $40 million or $50 million in capital and $40 million or $50 million from an expense standpoint. So I repeat what I said back on the January call, from a margin profile, it impacts us in the near term, but in the long term, makes us much more competitive from a cost posture.
Operator:
The next question will come from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.
George Shapiro:
The question I have is, I'm trying to understand, defense investment outlays are going to go down double-digit second and third quarter. If the Green Book's light, even more, although I think that's too optimistic. This quarter, your sales were down 6%, investment outlays were down 5%. Why do we see an increasing disconnect between what you're suggesting for sales in the second and the third quarter versus what defense investment outlays are going to be?
David C. Wajsgras:
Okay. So we understand the question. There's clearly a need to track these numbers at a macro level, and they do provide some insight into the broad trends. But keep in mind that our specific company performance is a function of our bookings and the related sales. Domestically, bookings and sales played out as we expected in Q1. And we're confident in our full year domestic sales guidance. Keep in mind that we're halfway through the government fiscal year, and we have the majority of our FY '14 government contracts in backlog, and the revenue profile of these contracts are relatively fixed. Now we are and remain confident in our program-by-program approach to setting guidance. And for that reason, we don't believe a change in the forecast is warranted simply based on Green Book forecasts or projections.
George Shapiro:
Okay. I guess, I'm still looking for the companies that are going to be impacted by this. But I guess I haven't found one yet. But we'll see. The other question...
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And George, just back on that, real clear is that we're already halfway into fiscal year '14. And I just wanted to reiterate what Dave said relative to the fact that we have -- yes, the contracts are in place and the contracts do dictate the payment schedules. So that pretty well dictates what we're going to have for the rest of the year. [indiscernible] And we roll up -- when we roll up our estimates, it's based on the actual contracts that we have and what -- any sales we'll achieve out of those for the rest of the year. So it's pretty set.
George Shapiro:
No, it's a good answer. As I said, I'm just looking for the disconnect, I haven't found it yet.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
All right. All right.
George Shapiro:
The other question I had, Dave, is in the first quarter cash flow, you had a $250 million advance, which I assume was probably from Kuwait or maybe Oman. How much of the free -- of the $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion cash that you have, how much more advances do you expect to get and...
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So, George, I'm not going to get specific on the amount of advances because they are associated with a number of programs that are factored in the outlook. There is a portion of advances in the guidance. There is every year, certainly since I've been here. I think what you may be looking for is our confidence in the cash flow outlook. And we're highly confident in the $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion.
George Shapiro:
On the contrary, Dave, I would think your guidance is low because last year, you didn't have any real net advances. You're getting more CAS reimbursement this year, plus the advances.
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes, George. I thought that might be where you were going with it. But let me just repeat, we're confident with our $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion. Cash -- to forecast cash flow, as you know, is difficult. There's always timing 1 quarter to the next with respect to both cash coming in and cash payments being made. So for now, I think the $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion is where we're comfortable guiding.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of David Strauss from UBS.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Just wanted to ask about -- back on IDS margins. I know we're going through this transition here, margins have dipped down. But as we think about longer term for this business as the international profile continues to build, tom, what do you think of kind of a long-term sustainable margin is for IDS?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
IDS is our business unit that has the highest percentage of international. It's over 50%. And so we do believe -- and a lot of those -- there's a mix between FMS, foreign military sales contracts, and also direct commercial sales, and a lot tend to be production oriented. And as you probably know, in our business, the production programs, they tend to have higher margins. So a combination of all those, I would say, the IDS will continue to be a strong margin business in the out years.
David C. Wajsgras:
So let me just add one thing to that. We see margin improvement quarter-over-quarter, sequentially, as we move throughout 2014. And I would suggest that if you're thinking in the 16% plus range longer term, you would be in the neighborhood. I'm not guiding to that. I just want to be clear, but given the mix of business, that's where I would suggest is a good way to think about IDS.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. That's helpful. I wanted to ask about classified, how it's doing. I know you can't say much there. But I just noticed in the -- in your 10-K that the classified bookings last year were down a fair amount. If you could comment on that? And then, last one, just talk about Tomahawk and the budget. It looked like it took a pretty big hit.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
I'll take that. Our classified bookings were 19% of our total Q1 bookings. So volume was up about 51% from Q1 2013. Classified sales were 15% of total Q1 sales, and it was down about 6% from Q1 2013. So for the total year, we expect classified bookings to be about 12% to 14% of total, and sales to be in the range of 13% to 15% of total.
David E. Strauss - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
And then on the...
Thomas A. Kennedy:
And then, on the Tomahawk, the Tomahawk was funded for FY '14 and also in the FY '15 budget. But the 5-year defense plan for FY '15 did show funding not occurring in '16, '17 and '18 for production, however, it does show an uptick in '19 for a recertification program. And we are working with the -- our customer to ensure that our production line continues in '16, '17 and '18 to be able to support the certification and working to restore those production numbers.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Douglas Harned from Sanford Bernstein.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
I'm curious. In 2013, you fell short of your goal of reaching the book-to-bill above 1. And we understood that, that was related to the timing of some orders that moved to the right. Then you look at Q1, the backlog fell again. Was this a surprise for you? What's the outlook for bookings over the course of this year?
David C. Wajsgras:
Yes. So we talked a little bit about this earlier. We see strong bookings in the second quarter of north of $7 billion. We did meet our internal targets for Q1 at about $4.3 billion. We -- on a full year basis, we're seeing $23.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million. The international piece of that will be between 35% and 40%. So what I would say is, from our perspective, we vet our internal targets in the first quarter, and we feel good about the way the year is going to play out. I would suggest that there is a -- there's a -- when you close out the second quarter, based on what I'm saying, we would expect a change in the trajectory of the backlog. And we should be back to where we were when we closed out the end of last year, if not better.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Then, when you talk about the 39% of the backlog now being international, if you took a very simplistic view, you might think that over the long term you would be moving towards something like 39% of sales being international. But can you describe how you expect that to play out? Or are some of the international awards longer-term contracts that might not lead you to that kind of a percentage?
David C. Wajsgras:
There will be a higher proportion of international sales as we move forward into '15 and '16. With that said, you are right with your assumption that the international programs, in general, are longer in duration than the domestic programs. They can be on average, say, 4 to 5 years, where domestically, you may be looking at 3 years, plus or minus.
Douglas S. Harned - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
And if I could just slip one last thing on the international. When you look at the tensions right now in Eastern Europe, I'm just interested, are you seeing anything specific either directly or indirectly through the budget that's affecting your business as you look as this in real time?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
The time sequence for the budgets hasn't caught up to the activities, geopolitical activities we're seeing in Eastern Europe yet. However, we are seeing direct requests for, I will call it, solutions to help countries in the Eastern Bloc region. And the big one out there right now is Poland. And there is a Poland Patriot competition that is going on today. And that, I would see that as being pretty firm as we move forward due to the activities in the -- due to the Ukraine activities.
David C. Wajsgras:
We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Your last question will come from Peter Arment from Sterne Agee.
Peter J. Arment - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division:
I -- this is more of a, I guess, a bigger picture question. I'm just curious about kind of the -- with the international cyber bookings, I assume that this is a segment that's got a low percentage of international mix. But is this an opportunity, I think long-term, to see margins maybe trend higher? Or is that not going to happen until we see kind of trading volume bottom out?
Thomas A. Kennedy:
I definitely think that increasing the international content for that business will drive its margins in the upward direction. So you're right in your assumptions moving forward. This has been an activity that we've been pushing heavily here for the last 2 years to essentially leverage our existing international market channels with our other solutions across the entire business. The cyber is just one example. We have other examples across the business where we're doing that. But again, kind of leverage the fact that on the international we -- our margin profiles are stronger.
Peter J. Arment - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division:
Is there -- David, any clarification on how much is international today versus where you think it can get to?
David C. Wajsgras:
No. I don't think we're ready to get into the mix of international versus domestic on the cyber business. And again, it's a business of products and services and overall solutions. We do see the proportion of international growing over time. But today, I just -- I don't think it's appropriate to get into that level of detail.
Todd B. Ernst:
All right, well, before closing, I'd like to turn it over to Tom for some closing remarks.
Thomas A. Kennedy:
Yes, before we close the call, this being the week of the Boston Marathon, I wanted to take a moment to recognize our employees who were impacted by last year's bombings. And on behalf of the entire Raytheon team, I want to thank all of those who made this year's marathon a safe and resounding success. Thank you.
Todd B. Ernst:
Okay, thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again in our second quarter conference call in July. Taheesha?
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.