• Oil & Gas Midstream
  • Energy
The Williams Companies, Inc. logo
The Williams Companies, Inc.
WMB · US · NYSE
43.39
USD
+0.27
(0.62%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Larry C. Larsen Senior Vice President of Gathering & Processing --
Mr. Alan S. Armstrong President, Chief Executive Officer & Director 4.1M
Judge Terence Lane Wilson Senior Vice President & General Counsel 1.15M
Mr. Chad J. Zamarin Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development 1.52M
Ms. Mary A. Hausman Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller --
Mr. Danilo Marcelo Juvane C.F.A. Vice President of Investor Relations --
Ms. Debbie L. Pickle Senior Vice President & Chief Human Resource Officer --
Mr. Chad A. Teply Senior Vice President of Transmission & Gulf of Mexico --
Mr. John D. Porter Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.25M
Mr. Micheal G. Dunn Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer 1.91M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-07 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 2000 0
2024-05-09 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 38200 39.61
2024-04-30 Smith Murray D director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 Tyson Jesse J director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 ROBESON ROSE M director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 Ragauss Peter A director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 Muncrief Richard E director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 Lockhart Carri A. director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 Dore Stacey H director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - A-Award Common Stock 4823 0
2024-04-30 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - A-Award Common Stock 10036 0
2024-03-06 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 36.65
2024-02-26 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Shares 12704 0
2024-02-26 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Shares 5751 34.72
2024-02-26 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Shares 3686 34.72
2024-02-26 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 12704 0
2024-02-26 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 119218 0
2024-02-26 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 52674 34.72
2024-02-26 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 23056 34.72
2024-02-26 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 119218 0
2024-02-26 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2374 0
2024-02-26 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 817 34.72
2024-02-26 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 761 34.72
2024-02-26 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2374 0
2024-02-26 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 515022 0
2024-02-26 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 227125 34.72
2024-02-26 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 62861 34.72
2024-02-26 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 515022 0
2024-02-26 Teply Chad A. Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Shares 61994 0
2024-02-26 Teply Chad A. Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Shares 27486 34.72
2024-02-26 Teply Chad A. Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Shares 11989 34.72
2024-02-26 Teply Chad A. Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 61994 0
2024-02-26 Porter John Dean SVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13734 0
2024-02-26 Porter John Dean SVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6166 34.72
2024-02-26 Porter John Dean SVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3984 34.72
2024-02-26 Porter John Dean SVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 13734 0
2024-02-26 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 66762 0
2024-02-26 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 29562 34.72
2024-02-26 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 718 34.72
2024-02-26 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 11544 34.72
2024-02-26 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 66762 0
2024-02-26 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 143062 0
2024-02-26 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 63153 34.72
2024-02-26 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1537 34.72
2024-02-26 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 24737 34.72
2024-02-26 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 143062 0
2024-02-26 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 47688 0
2024-02-26 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 21177 34.72
2024-02-26 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 9223 34.72
2024-02-26 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 47688 0
2024-02-22 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6705 0
2024-02-22 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4571 0
2024-02-22 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 19556 0
2024-02-22 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 19997 0
2024-02-22 Ormond Eric J Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 16115 0
2024-02-22 Ormond Eric J Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 15759 0
2024-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Common Stock 45129 0
2024-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 46147 0
2024-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 60172 0
2024-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 61529 0
2024-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 120344 0
2024-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 184588 0
2024-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - D-Return Employee Options (Right to Buy) 133080 41.77
2024-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 27077 0
2024-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 27688 0
2024-02-22 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Common Shares 21060 0
2024-02-22 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 21535 0
2024-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 39112 0
2024-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 39994 0
2024-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - D-Return Employee Options (Right to Buy) 1057 0
2024-02-22 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Shares 22564 0
2024-02-22 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restcted Stock Units 23074 0
2024-02-07 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 59609 0
2024-02-07 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 33381 0
2024-02-07 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 30977 0
2024-02-07 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6867 0
2024-02-07 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23844 0
2024-02-07 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6352 0
2024-02-07 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1187 0
2024-02-07 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 71531 0
2024-02-07 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 257511 0
2024-01-15 Ormond Eric J Senior Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-11-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 928 29.09
2023-11-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 802 35.982
2023-11-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 928 29.09
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 231356 29.09
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 188935 28.87
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 145570 24.98
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 206547 35.995
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 168030 35.995
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 120669 35.995
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 145570 24.98
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 188935 28.87
2023-11-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 231356 29.09
2023-11-20 PICKLE DEBBIE L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 60968 35.609
2023-11-06 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 80029 29.09
2023-11-06 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 71278 36.165
2023-11-06 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 80029 29.09
2023-07-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Shares 7193 33
2023-06-28 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Shares 7194 32
2023-06-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Shares 7194 31
2023-06-14 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Shares 14388 30.64
2023-05-04 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution D - F-InKind Common Shares 11833 29.1
2023-04-25 Dore Stacey H director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 Lockhart Carri A. director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - A-Award Common Stock 12529 0
2023-04-25 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 Smith Murray D director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 Muncrief Richard E director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 Tyson Jesse J director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 Ragauss Peter A director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-04-25 ROBESON ROSE M director A - A-Award Common Stock 5847 0
2023-03-14 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 5000 29.6086
2023-03-14 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6895 29
2023-03-14 Smith Murray D director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 400 29.66
2023-03-01 Lockhart Carri A. director A - A-Award Common Stock 1461 0
2023-02-27 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Shares 19013 31.18
2023-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 554188 31.18
2023-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 244397 31.18
2023-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 62816 31.18
2023-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 128824 31.05
2023-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 186683 0
2023-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 554188 0
2023-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 86206 31.18
2023-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 38017 31.18
2023-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 841 31.18
2023-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 14334 31.18
2023-02-23 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 28986 31.05
2023-02-23 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 28002 0
2023-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 86206 0
2023-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 55418 31.18
2023-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 24440 31.18
2023-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 9729 31.18
2023-02-23 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 20224 0
2023-02-23 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 20934 31.05
2023-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 55418 0
2023-02-24 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16996 31.18
2023-02-24 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 7649 31.18
2023-02-24 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 4475 31.18
2023-02-23 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 24155 31.05
2023-02-23 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23335 0
2023-02-24 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 16996 0
2023-02-24 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3104 31.18
2023-02-24 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1068 31.18
2023-02-24 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 860 31.18
2023-02-23 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 8395 31.05
2023-02-23 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5407 0
2023-02-24 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3104 0
2023-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 203202 31.18
2023-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 89613 31.18
2023-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 32561 31.18
2023-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1982 31.18
2023-02-23 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 64412 31.05
2023-02-23 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 62228 0
2023-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 203202 0
2023-02-23 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Common Stock 22544 31.05
2023-02-23 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 21780 0
2023-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 17536 31.18
2023-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7853 31.18
2023-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4618 31.18
2023-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 41868 31.05
2023-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 40448 0
2023-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 17536 0
2023-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 86206 31.18
2023-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 33923 31.18
2023-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 13503 31.18
2023-02-23 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Common Stock 24155 31.05
2023-02-23 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23335 0
2023-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 86206 0
2023-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 153940 31.18
2023-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 27023 31.18
2023-02-23 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Common Stock 48309 31.05
2023-02-23 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 46671 0
2023-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 153940 0
2023-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 67888 31.18
2023-02-21 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 63828 30.79
2023-02-21 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 28293 30.79
2023-02-21 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 63828 0
2023-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 59572 30.79
2023-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 23619 30.79
2023-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 59572 0
2023-02-21 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31914 30.79
2023-02-21 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 14254 30.79
2023-02-21 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31914 0
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 81558 30.79
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 36208 30.79
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3546 30.79
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1682 30.79
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3546 0
2023-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 81558 0
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30584 30.79
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 13686 30.79
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1330 30.79
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 658 30.79
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1330 0
2023-02-21 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 30584 0
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 163114 30.79
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 72185 30.79
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7092 30.79
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3117 30.79
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7092 0
2023-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 163114 0
2022-02-10 Lockhart Carri A. director D - No securities are beneficially owned 0 0
2023-02-10 Zamarin Chad J. Executive Vice President CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 76970 0
2023-02-10 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 43103 0
2023-02-10 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8768 0
2023-02-10 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8498 0
2023-02-10 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1552 0
2023-02-10 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 43103 0
2023-02-10 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 101601 0
2023-02-10 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 27709 0
2023-02-10 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 277094 0
2022-12-31 Hausman Mary A. officer - 0 0
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10949 29.09
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8660 28.87
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4430 24.98
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 9601 35.205
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 7551 35.24
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3516 35.235
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Options (Right to Buy) 4430 0
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Options (Right to Buy) 8660 0
2022-12-01 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Options (Right to Buy) 10949 0
2022-11-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 8500 34.195
2022-11-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 1500 0
2022-11-11 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 9866 33.76
2022-11-11 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 33.762
2022-11-11 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 34 33.765
2022-11-14 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 34.3
2022-06-08 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 1000 37.755
2022-05-04 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 50000 36.915
2022-05-04 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 50000 0
2022-04-26 Tyson Jesse J A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 SPENCE WILLIAM H A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 Smith Murray D A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 ROBESON ROSE M A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 Ragauss Peter A A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 Muncrief Richard E A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 Dore Stacey H A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 CREEL MICHAEL A A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 Buese Nancy A - A-Award Common Stock 5101 0
2022-04-26 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W A - A-Award Common Stock 10930 0
2022-04-06 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Stock 15607 33.3
2022-04-01 Tyson Jesse J A - A-Award Common Stock 813 0
2022-04-01 Muncrief Richard E A - A-Award Common Stock 813 0
2022-03-14 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 20921 0
2022-03-12 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2025-02-23 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Restricted Stock Units 4175 0
2025-02-23 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 4373 49.15
2026-08-04 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 4430 24.98
2027-02-21 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 8660 28.87
2028-02-20 Larsen Larry C Senior Vice President D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 10949 29.09
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10913 29.09
2022-03-08 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7775 28.87
2022-03-08 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5063 24.98
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Stock 7470 33.39
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Stock 3143 33.4
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Stock 7775 33.86
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 33.401
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Sell) 10913 29.09
2022-03-07 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Sell) 5063 0
2022-03-08 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Sell) 5063 24.98
2022-03-08 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Sell) 7775 28.87
2022-03-01 Muncrief Richard E director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-03-01 Tyson Jesse J director D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-03-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 50928 29.09
2022-03-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 44085 28.87
2022-03-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 50928 32
2022-03-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 44085 28.87
2022-03-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 50928 27.09
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 159681 29.11
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 156523 30.177
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 123506 0
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 53227 29.11
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 53227 29.11
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 53227 29.11
2022-02-23 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 171798 0
2022-02-23 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 26560 0
2022-02-23 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 24631 0
2022-02-23 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 14219 29.7
2022-02-23 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 29.7
2022-02-23 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 18473 0
2022-02-23 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 19920 0
2022-02-23 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Common Stock 23240 0
2022-02-23 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 21552 0
2022-02-23 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 61421 0
2022-02-23 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 56958 0
2022-02-23 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6773 0
2022-02-23 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4187 0
2022-02-23 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Common Stock 24900 0
2022-02-23 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23091 0
2022-02-23 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Common Stock 44821 0
2022-02-23 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 41564 0
2022-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 39841 0
2022-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 36946 0
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 35011 29.51
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 15440 29.51
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31914 29.51
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 9650 29.51
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 14215 29.51
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31914 0
2022-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 35011 0
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 58352 29.51
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 25734 29.51
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 63826 29.51
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 16084 29.51
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 28275 29.51
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 63826 0
2022-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 58352 0
2022-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4201 29.51
2022-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1783 29.51
2022-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1536 29.51
2022-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4201 0
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 32094 29.51
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 59572 0
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 59572 29.51
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 12629 29.51
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 7893 29.51
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 23603 29.51
2022-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 32094 0
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 81692 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 36027 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1252 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 85102 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 20133 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 37495 29.51
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 85102 0
2022-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 81692 0
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31914 0
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20423 29.51
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31914 29.51
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 9007 29.51
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 20423 0
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5629 29.51
2022-02-22 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 14237 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 40846 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 18095 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31914 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 11310 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 14286 29.51
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31914 0
2022-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 40846 0
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 227571 29.51
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 100359 29.51
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 39713 29.51
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 170206 29.51
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 75061 29.51
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 170206 0
2022-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 35011 0
2022-02-15 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1712 0
2022-02-15 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 92754 0
2022-02-15 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 85103 0
2022-02-15 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 85103 0
2022-02-15 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 14270 0
2022-02-15 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-02-15 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-02-15 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23783 0
2022-02-15 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 31914 0
2022-02-15 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 31913 0
2022-02-15 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 13081 0
2022-02-15 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 29786 0
2022-02-15 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 29786 0
2022-02-15 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8324 0
2022-02-15 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-02-15 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-02-15 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 33296 0
2022-02-15 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 42552 0
2022-02-15 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 42551 0
2022-02-15 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 16648 0
2022-02-15 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-02-15 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 15957 0
2022-01-01 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-02-24 Hausman Mary A. VP Chief Accounting Officer D - Restricted Stock Units 1187 0
2021-10-08 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18975 24.98
2021-10-08 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 18975 28
2021-10-08 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 25000 28
2021-10-08 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 6316 24.98
2021-10-08 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 12659 24.98
2021-07-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19000 24.98
2021-07-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 19000 27
2021-07-01 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 19000 24.98
2021-04-27 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - A-Award Common Stock 15246 0
2021-04-27 Dore Stacey H director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 CHAZEN STEPHEN I director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 Cogut Charles I director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 ROBESON ROSE M director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 Smith Murray D director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 Fuller Vicki L director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 Buese Nancy director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 Ragauss Peter A director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-04-27 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - A-Award Common Stock 6892 0
2021-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 150565 0
2021-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 257511 0
2021-02-24 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Common Stock 31368 0
2021-02-24 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 35765 0
2021-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 62735 0
2021-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 71531 0
2021-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 9034 0
2021-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6867 0
2021-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Common Stock 29276 0
2021-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 33381 0
2021-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 20912 0
2021-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 23844 0
2021-02-24 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Common Stock 27185 0
2021-02-24 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 30997 0
2021-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 29276 0
2021-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 33381 0
2021-02-24 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 43915 0
2021-02-24 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 50072 0
2021-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Common Stock 52279 0
2021-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 59609 0
2021-02-23 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 15000 23.01
2020-02-24 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - S-Sale Common Stock 15000 24
2021-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3418 22.91
2021-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1185 22.91
2021-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 710 22.91
2021-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 3418 0
2021-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 186831 22.91
2021-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 76328 22.91
2021-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1347 22.91
2021-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21681 22.91
2021-02-22 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 186831 0
2021-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 52877 22.91
2021-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 17060 22.91
2021-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 11740 22.91
2021-02-22 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 52877 0
2021-02-22 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 52877 22.91
2021-02-22 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 17058 22.91
2021-02-22 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 11740 22.91
2021-02-22 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 52877 0
2021-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6410 22.91
2021-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 1763 22.91
2021-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 1003 22.91
2021-02-22 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 6410 0
2021-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33648 22.91
2021-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 10054 22.91
2021-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 5971 22.91
2021-02-22 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 33648 0
2021-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 72104 22.91
2021-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 25554 22.91
2021-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 890 22.91
2021-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common 14318 22.91
2021-02-22 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 72104 0
2021-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33648 22.91
2021-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 10042 22.91
2021-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 5962 22.91
2021-02-22 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 33648 0
2021-02-01 Dore Stacey H director A - A-Award Common Stock 3229 0
2021-01-06 Dore Stacey H director D - No securities are beneficially owned 0 0
2021-01-04 ROBESON ROSE M director A - A-Award Common Stock 4104 0
2020-12-10 ROBESON ROSE M director D - No securities are beneficially owned 0 0
2020-09-08 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16584 0
2020-09-08 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4868 20.48
2020-09-08 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 16584 0
2020-06-26 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - M-Exempt Common Stock 77667 0
2020-06-26 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - F-InKind Common Stock 30272 18.51
2020-06-26 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 77667 0
2020-05-04 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution A - A-Award Common Stock 28751 0
2020-05-04 Teply Chad A. SVP Project Execution D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-04-28 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 Fuller Vicki L director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 Ragauss Peter A director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 Smith Murray D director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 Cogut Charles I director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 CHAZEN STEPHEN I director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 Buese Nancy director A - A-Award Common Stock 8726 0
2020-04-28 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - A-Award Common Stock 19302 0
2020-04-17 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 39761 0
2020-04-17 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 12491 18.08
2020-04-17 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 39761 0
2020-04-03 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1341 0
2020-04-03 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 327 13.65
2020-04-03 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 1341 0
2020-03-30 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 54.259 14.005
2020-03-12 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1100 13.95
2020-03-12 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4000 13.6
2020-03-10 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 3500 14.5
2020-03-10 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 3000 15
2020-03-09 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 13000 15.0743
2020-03-09 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 16400 15.2972
2020-03-09 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 500 15.225
2020-03-09 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 32500 15.23
2020-02-27 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31083 0
2020-02-27 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 10320 18.9
2020-02-27 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31083 0
2020-02-26 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 25000 19.15
2020-02-25 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1000 20.42
2020-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 34314 0
2020-02-24 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 43103 0
2020-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Common Stock 34314 0
2020-02-24 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 43103 0
2020-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Common Stock 10471 0
2020-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8768 0
2020-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 22059 0
2020-02-24 Cowan Debbie L. SVP & Chief HR Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 27709 0
2020-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Common Stock 61275 0
2020-02-24 Zamarin Chad J. Senior Vice President - CSD A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 76970 0
2020-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 80882 0
2020-02-24 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 101601 0
2020-02-24 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 51471 0
2020-02-24 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 64655 0
2020-02-24 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Common Stock 36765 0
2020-02-24 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 46182 0
2020-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 147059 0
2020-02-24 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 277094 0
2020-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20281 0
2020-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6004 21.52
2020-02-21 Dunn Micheal G. Executive Vice President & COO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 20281 0
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2165 0
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 751 21.52
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 657 0
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 228 21.52
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 657 0
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 2165 0
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2425 0
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution D - F-InKind Common Stock 829 21.52
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1226 0
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution D - F-InKind Common Stock 425 21.52
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 2425 0
2020-02-21 Poarch John E SVP - Project Execution D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 1226 0
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3421 0
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 926 21.52
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1729 0
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - F-InKind Common Stock 513 21.52
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 1729 0
2020-02-21 Hallam Scott A. SVP Transmission & Gulf of Mex D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 3421 0
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 17319 0
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 5075 21.52
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16973 0
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 4974 21.52
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11032 0
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - F-InKind Common Stock 3381 21.52
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 17319 0
2020-02-21 Bennett Walter J SVP Gathering & Processing D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 16973 0
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 51957 0
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21890 21.52
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 57787 0
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20216 17.28
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 20451 21.52
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20215 17.28
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20215 17.28
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 52200 21.52
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Options (Right to Buy) 20216 17.28
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 57787 0
2020-02-21 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 51957 0
2020-01-01 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-01-01 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-19 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Restricted Stock Units 2489 0
2016-02-25 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 690 33.57
2017-02-24 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 529 41.77
2018-02-23 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 836 49.15
2019-02-22 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 633 24.98
2020-02-21 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 1312 28.87
2021-02-20 Porter John Dean VP, Controller & CAO D - Employee Options (Right to Buy) 1940 29.09
2019-12-23 Bennett Walter J Senior Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 20000 23.82
2019-08-23 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 22.9863
2019-08-14 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 23.2191
2019-08-08 Wilson Terrance Lane SVP & General Counsel A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4000 23.6
2019-08-07 ARMSTRONG ALAN S President & CEO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 23.4653
2019-08-07 CHANDLER JOHN D Sr. Vice President & CFO A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 23.2396
2019-08-05 CHAZEN STEPHEN I director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 23.93
2019-05-29 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 26.055
2019-05-20 CHAZEN STEPHEN I director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 27.3275
2019-05-09 SPENCE WILLIAM H director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Smith Murray D director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 SHEFFIELD SCOTT D director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Ragauss Peter A director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Fuller Vicki L director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 CREEL MICHAEL A director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Cooper Kathleen B director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Cogut Charles I director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 CHAZEN STEPHEN I director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 Buese Nancy director A - A-Award Common Stock 6120 0
2019-05-09 BERGSTROM STEPHEN W director A - A-Award Common Stock 13539 0
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5444 0
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1498 27.11
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1880 0
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO D - F-InKind Common Stock 652 27.11
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 5444 0
2019-02-22 Timmermans Ted T VP, Controller, and CAO D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 1880 0
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21017 0
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 5999 27.11
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9333 0
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2761 27.11
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 21017 0
2019-02-22 Scheel James E. Senior Vice President D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 9333 0
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2562 0
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services D - F-InKind Common Stock 841 27.11
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services A - M-Exempt Common Stock 885 0
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services D - F-InKind Common Stock 307 27.11
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services D - M-Exempt Restcted Stock Units 885 0
2019-02-22 Poarch John E SVP - Engineering Services D - M-Exempt Restriced Stock Units 2562 0
Transcripts
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Williams Second Quarter Earnings 2024 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG and Investment Analysis. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, Danilo, and thanks for joining us today. The story that John and I get to lay out for you this morning is one of consecutive growth as Williams continues to deliver on a long-term trend of per share growth and resilience regardless of the macro environment. In fact, we delivered record second quarter results, driven by the strong performance of our Transmission and Storage business this quarter, even our Gathering and Processing business held up very well despite challenging natural gas prices. The good news is that a meaningful increase in natural gas demand that continues to exceed our expectations will take advantage of these abundant supplies driving growth for years to come, and the supply side is poised to respond with over 1 Bcf a day of volumes from delayed TILs and temporary shut-ins to return to our gathering systems. And before we get deeper into the financial metrics, I want to hit on a few key themes from the quarter, namely our crisp execution of key projects that are positioning us for continued earnings growth and the ongoing focus we are optimizing our portfolio and ensuring sustainable operations. So starting here on Slide 2. Our teams have executed on an extraordinary amount of strategic priorities, including placing projects into service in the Northeast, West and the Deepwater, Gulf of Mexico. Just to run down the list quickly here. Last week, we placed Transco regional energy access into full service ahead of schedule and under budget once again, ensuring clean and reliable natural gas is available to serve the Northeast region for the upcoming winter heating season. And while the DC Circuit Court did issue a decision last week to vacate the FERC certificate for ARIA, we believe the court's concerns about the FERC process is once again flawed and will be fairly easy for the FERC to resolve. In the meantime, we are taking the necessary legal and regulatory steps to address the court's concerns, and ensure that this much-needed firm transportation capacity continues to be available to serve the needs of our customers without interruptions. I'll remind you that our industry has seen court rulings in the past with projects such as Sabal Trail as well as fires expansion. With both of these projects operating today, we see limited risk on a eruption REA operations and are prepared to help the FERC in reaffirming the merits of this important project. Other notable expansions, we've recently completed include the Marcellus gathering expansion that serves Southwestern rich gas zone in the Marcellus and the fully contracted Basin transmission expansion. In the Deepwater, there are 2 new fields that will increase EBITDA in the third quarter on our Discovery system, which we now fully own. So we're excited about the acquisition of the additional interest in Discovery, and we're really excited about the kind of growth that we're seeing both here in the near term and the long term. So first of all, Chevron's large anchor development and Beacon's Winterfell 5-well program are both fully connected and will drive a large increase in EBITDA for 2025 as well as for the balance of this year. Additionally, brought on their prospect on June 25 that will grow EBITDA on our Eastern Gulf assets. We were also active on advancing construction for several key projects. We initiated construction activities on the Louisiana Energy Gateway gathering, treating and carbon capture project as well as Transco's Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway project, which we call TLEP. TLEP project provides our anchor shipper EOG resources with access to the LNG corridor in higher-priced markets on the Transco Pipeline and specifically all the way into the Louisiana market. So we're excited about getting started on that fairly significant project for us. And then recently, we also signed a precedent agreement on Transco's Gilles West expansion. This will bring new, reliable and low-cost supplies to CenterPoint Energy Houston area markets from Louisiana, so this is effectively a backhaul on Transco, helping CenterPoint to reduce their dependence on the Texas intrastate gas pipeline systems. Importantly, this quick turn project will add meaningful EBITDA with very little capital required on our part to place it into service. I also want to call out the significant emissions reductions and cost savings accomplished in the quarter as part of our system-wide emission and emission reduction program. Thus far, we have replaced 57 transmission compressor units and are on track to meet our goal of 112 units to be replaced by the end of this year, so that we can begin recovering on these investments in our listed rates. And on that note, we will file our new rates on Transco at the end of this month and the new rates will go into effect in March of '25. So incredible amount of work going on by teams to replace a lot of these very old units with modern low-emission equipment on the system. And a lot of times, those kind of projects kind of get overlooked, but tremendous amount of effort and great execution going on by the teams on that front as well. Looking at the second column, we continue to take steps to optimize our asset portfolio. We sold our stake in the Aux Sable joint Venture and an attractive gain and consolidate our ownership interest in the Gulf of Mexico Discovery system and an attractive value given both the very near and long-term growth on this asset. From a financial perspective, we remain on track to achieve the top half of '24 EBITDA guidance and we also reaffirm our expectations for 2025, which translates into a 5-year EBITDA CAGR of 8%. More importantly, the growth in our per share metrics will be just as strong over this 5-year period with AFFO per share CAGR of 7% and our EPS CAGR of 12% over this 5-year period. Of note, the fundamentals to sustain and even improve on this industry-leading earnings and cash flow growth beyond '25 actually continue to improve. Our Southeast -- our project is just of a few projects we expect from the secular end of increased demand for power generation, and we remain in the best position to secure additional infrastructure solutions in and around our Transco pipeline footprint. And finally, we continue to prioritize being a responsible operator in all that we do. And this is clearly outlined in our 2023 sustainability report that we published last week. This report is really a deep dive on how we focus on doing business the right way, and one area I'll call is our efforts in progressing on our decarbonization goals. We are focused on proving up that the natural gas industry can play an even more important role in providing affordable and reliable energy while also continuing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions here at home and around the world. And so with that, I'll turn it over to John to walk through the second quarter financials. John?
John Porter:
Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 3 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance, beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw about a 3.5% year-over-year increase, despite low natural gas prices that fell about 5% versus 2Q '23, averaging close to -- for second quarter of 2024. And that 3.5% adjusted EBITDA growth is over a second quarter last year that had grown about 8%. So in spite of low natural gas prices, once again, our resilient business continued to grow even [indiscernible] customers employed pretty significant temporary production reduction measures like not completing drilled wells and/or not turning in-line wells that now stand ready to flow as prices improve. As we'll see on the next slide, our adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by strong growth from our large-scale natural gas transmission and storage businesses, including the favorable effects of our recent acquisitions. Year-to-date, our adjusted EBITDA is now up 6%, so inline in the middle of our long-term growth target of 5% to 7%. For Q2, our adjusted EPS was up 2% and year-to-date EPS is up about 3%. So a bit slower EPS growth in '24 as compared to the 19% 5-year CAGR that we've seen through 2023. But as Alan mentioned, looking through '25, we do see a 5-year CAGR that will be in excess of 12%. For 2Q, available funds from operations, AFFO growth was 3% and 4% year-to-date. Similar story here with this slower '24 growth is following an 8% 5-year CAGR through 2023. And when you look through 2025, we see a 5-year CAGR of 7%. Also, you see our 2Q dividend coverage based on AFFO was a very strong 2.16 on a dividend that grew 6.1% over the prior year and 2.38x coverage year-to-date. And our debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.76x, which is in line with our expectations, slightly higher leverage in 2024 before dropping back down in 2025 to guidance of 3.6x or better. So before we move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our adjusted EBITDA growth for the quarter, we'll provide an update to our financial guidance. In general, our second quarter update is unchanged from what we provided in our first quarter earnings presentation. Based on our strong start to '24, we guided to the upper half of our 2024 adjusted EBITDA range of $6.95 billion to $7.1 billion, and we indicated that we were well positioned for upside to drive toward the high end of this original guidance. We also shared that we remain well positioned to deliver on our 2025 adjusted EBITDA range of $7.2 billion to $7.6 billion. And that based on our improved '24 adjusted EBITDA outlook and some other changes, we saw our key per share metrics, adjusted EPS and AFFO per share coming in at the high end of their ranges for 2024. So again, no major shift to that first quarter update, except perhaps to say that we are increasingly comfortable that we can clear the $7 billion level for 2024 adjusted EBITDA while still not counting on any additional help from Sequent. And of course, we also wouldn't include the around $150 million gain we expect to have on Aux Sable sale in there as well as we exclude gains and losses on asset sales from our adjusted EBITDA measure. So let's turn to the next slide and take a little closer look at our first quarter results. Walking now from last year's $1.611 billion to this year's $1.667 billion. We start with our transmission and Gulf of Mexico business, which improved $64 million or just over 8.5% due to the combined effects of a full quarter contribution from the Hartree Golf storage acquisition, which is delivering as expected, following a flawless integration effort. We also had higher Transco revenues, including partial in-service from the Regional Energy Access project, and segment growth was unfavorably impacted by last year's Bayou ethane divestiture and also some planned downtime in the Eastern North of Mexico. Now the $36 million unfavorable variance for the Northeast G&P business is really against a strong quarter last year that included the effect of a onetime $15 million favorable gathering revenue catch-up adjustment. However, we did see lower Northeast gathering volumes that were driven by those temporary producer reductions that were basically roughly in line with our plan for the year. And partially, those volume reductions were partially offset by rate escalations across several franchises in the Northeast. Shifting now to the West, which increased about $7 million, benefiting from the DJ transactions that we completed in the fourth quarter of 2023. The increase in the DJ Basin results was about the same magnitude as the unfavorable loss of hedge gains we had in 2023. Segment performance was also favorably impacted by higher NGL service results, including Highland Overland Pass pipeline volumes where low natural gas prices have supported greater ethane recoveries. Overall, West gathering volumes were also lower as a result of temporary producer reductions primarily in the dry gas Haynesville area. And then you see the $2 million lower marketing loss that was in line with our plan based on the expectation that our natural gas marketing will typically have a loss in the second quarter. Our upstream joint venture operations included in our other segments were up about $2 million from last year. So again, a second quarter that continued to beat our business plan, proving once again our ability to grow our business in spite of a challenging natural gas pricing environment and also giving us further confidence in our ability to beat $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2024. And with that, I'll turn it back to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, John. Just a few closing remarks before turning it over to your questions. I'll end where I started with my remarks, and that is to emphasize what Williams has been able to deliver in the current environment and how well positioned we are for the future as natural gas demand continues to grow. As we think about our long-term strategy, we are confident in the role our valuable natural gas infrastructure will play in meeting both today's energy demand as well as the projected growth from power generation and LNG exports. We are seeing demand grow at an unprecedented pace and expansions of our uniquely placed infrastructure will demand a premium. Simply put, there is no other midstream company today that is set up better than Williams to capture this demand growth. We are the most natural gas-centric large-scale midstream company around today, and our natural gas-focused strategy continues to deliver growth on top of growth quarter after quarter. And to that point, we've now seen 11 consecutive years of adjusted EBITDA growth and an 8% compound annual growth rate of our adjusted EBITDA since 2018. In addition, we have realized a 19.5% return on our invested capital during the last 4 years, and our steadfast project execution led to record contracted transmission capacity and will continue to drive per share growth in 2024 and beyond. In fact, our current projects in execution have higher returns than this prior 4 years. So in closing, we've built a business that is delivering record profitability and strong financial returns in the present, but is positioned for even faster -- for an even faster-growing future. And so with that, we'll open it up to your questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Maybe I'll start with data centers here. So you mentioned that you're looking is just the first and maybe a handful of other data center projects. I guess 2 questions here. Can you give us a sense of the size and scope of some of the other projects that you're looking at in the backlog? And then how do you think about the returns on future projects for SES, I mean, we're estimating around a 5x EBIT Delta. Do you think that some of the future data center projects that are in the backlog could earn similar types of returns?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, first of all, Praneeth, thank you for the question and important issue. First of all, on actually, our return is even better than that, probably, as we've mentioned, the best return we've ever seen on a large-scale project on Transco and actually any of our transmission expansions over the long history for Williams. So pretty extraordinary return opportunity there. In terms of the data center load, we are right in the throes of that. We have a very long backlog of projects. And I will tell you that particularly in the Southeast and Atlantic, those expansion opportunities that we have, we frankly are kind of overwhelmed with the number of requests that we're doing and we are trying to make sense of those projects. Obviously, we're not going to start or announce another expansion project on the top of because obviously, that would force a combination of projects. And so it doesn't make any sense for us to be making any announcements when we've got a large project that we've committed to our customers to do everything we can to get that permitted cleanly and push that ahead. So extremely critical expansion for our utility customers in the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast, and we understand that. And we're going to make sure that we deliver on that first to our customers. But despite the fact that there's a lot of attention there in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, we're actually seeing strong demand response, a lot of projects that we're dealing with and trying to figure out how we can respond to in the Rocky Mountain states, particularly in Eastern Washington, the Quince area, in Idaho, in Salt Lake City region. So a lot of demand going on everywhere. And frankly, the big developers that we're working with are looking to find where they can -- because the time is of the essence, probably more than we can even imagine in our business. And so they are looking to where the permitting regime is right, where there's access to abundant natural gas supplies and frankly, where expansions on our systems are available. And so -- this has moved from being one of where people have been very focused previously in cloud-based data centers. They've been very focused on the latency issue or in other words, the connection into the -- into very fast and broadband networks to where they are now focused on the latency being less of an issue, not -- I wouldn't say it's not an issue, but less of an issue and the speed to market for power generation and gas resources being available to power that are coming front and center, along with the local air permitting issues associated with that. So I would just tell you, it is kind of an exciting time for us and even for me personally to be in such a steep learning curve on how we are going to make the very best use of our assets, but there certainly is not a dearth opportunity for us in that regard. In fact, as I said, it's a little bit overwhelming, and we're going to have to just make sure we make the very highest use of our assets because there obviously is as we expand the lower-cost expansions drive very high returns, but we only have so many of those. And those are precious, and we know that -- and so we're making sure that we make the various high return associated with the expansion around our assets. So we're not going to put a number on it because I hear people putting a number on it. And frankly, that's a very large guess. And in a time frame frankly, that's out there so far that -- and if you're not speaking to the returns that you're making on the project, I'm not really the purpose of quoting those kind of numbers when you're not really talking about the economic or financial impact to your business, and we're not ready to lay that out. But I can tell you that if anybody else has more opportunity than we do, I wish them luck because we're going to have a hard time keeping up with the opportunity in front of us right now. So hopefully, that gives you some color, but I would tell you, I think it's not all that meaningful to quote volumes on expansions if you're not talking about returns and you're not talking about the time frame for those opportunities.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. No, that's helpful. That's great. And maybe just switching gears, can you help us understand what the next steps are for REA following the DC Circuit Court's decision? I guess, have you filed for an emergency petition to keep the pipeline in service? And is there gas flowing today? Just trying to understand whether this impacts the early in service at all?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, first of all, yes, gas is up and flowing, and kudos to our team for being able to respond so quickly to that. Just incredible project execution on that project in a difficult area. And I'm going to turn it to Lane Wilson, our General Counsel, to speak to the label proceeding.
Lane Wilson:
Yes. So I think the next step will be speaking at temporary certificate. This is not new to FERC. They've dealt with this issue before. We fully anticipate they'll be defending the certificate. We'll be seeking rehearing on a timely basis, and that's probably about 35 days out at this point, maybe 37, 38. But we don't have any concerns that we're going to be able to continue to operate. Don't have any concerns about getting a temporary certificate and ultimately don't have any concerns about defending what FERC has done on this project.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to look at the guidance here and what the current thoughts are with regards to producer production expectations over the -- I guess, the balance of the year and into 25 years is the expectation that we've kind of hit the lows and there's kind of a growth from these points? Or just how you see production trending across your gathering assets?
Micheal Dunn:
Jeremy, it's Micheal. Yes, I think right now, we feel good about where we're at in regard to our current forecast for the production profiles coming from our customers. You've got to look at it between the rich basins and the dry gas. And obviously, the dry gas is challenged by pricing now. So producers are making a month of decision on gas volumes that they might shut in. I think you probably saw Cutera's announcement where they were shutting in $300 million for the month of August. And it's really a month-by-month decision for all the producers out there. But right now, we've anticipated this, as you've probably seen through the first half of the year. The team did a really good job anticipating where the production shut-ins would occur and the delayed tills and ducts. I would say right now, we've got over a Bcf of delayed TILs in the queue right now between all of our customer base, meaning that the producers have drilled the wells and completed them, and we've connected to them, and are ready to go when the price signals are there. And there's over 1 Bcf as well of us, so they've been drilled but not completed on our systems. So there's definitely a lot of opportunity to bring on gas as a producer, we see a price signal. And so I'd say our risk basins are still outperforming. We're seeing good pricing netbacks for the producers there, and that certainly buffers the dry gas situation that we have right now. But all in all, we feel good about our end-of-year forecast. And certainly, 2025 is going to be presentative as well. The Golden Pass LNG facility, you probably saw the announcement yesterday that they're going to be an end of 2025 in service, it appears. And so that should have been anticipated already by the market. It looks like with the forward curve. And producers will be making decisions on these curves. And when prices elevate, obviously, they'll hedge into that and keep their volumes flowing is what we anticipate. So we're really comfortable with where our current forecasts are.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And I just wanted to pivot towards LEG, if I could. And I just wanted to see your latest thoughts on moving forward there. With regards to FERC requesting more information, just wondering if you could update us there on how you think about that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. We've responded to the FERC data request, and we fully anticipate that FERC is either going to dismissed this matter or find a LEG as a gathering system. We don't -- really don't have any concerns there. And so there's really nothing for us to do right now except to continue down the current road, which is in construction. Again, we feel pretty confident about where we are in this project.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis of Citibank.
Spiro Dounis:
Alan, I want to go back on your closing comments there and maybe if we could tie power generation demand with how you're thinking about the EBITDA outlook longer term. So one of your slides, Slide 17 points to 10x the amount of electricity demand grow over the next 10 years versus the last 10 years. I think you mentioned in your comments there, you guys have been able to grow at about an 8% CAGR historically. So as you think about the go forward here, you guys have that 5% to 7% growth target out there. Is it sort get about that as maybe potentially moving higher in this environment, which I don't think you contemplated when you sort of laid that out there.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Spiro, it's a great question actually. And I do think that there is plenty of potential, even in the face of just the law of big numbers and continuing to put an absolute level of growth against a bigger and bigger number, that's as you know, has grown faster than we've expected over the last 3 or 4 years. But I do think that given the strength of the return on our projects and the kinds of opportunities that are coming at us right now, I do think that, that is a fairly high profitability that we could expand beyond that. And particularly, as we get into the '27-'28 time frame, and because I do think that people thinking that, for instance, data center load and power gen load -- for us, that's going to result in capacity sales on our transmission systems. And that is going to take time to -- we're completely contracted out on our existing capacity. And so that is when we take time to build that out. But I do think as we get into '27 and '28, we're going to see a very strong impact from the kind of demand that we're seeing right now. The good news is for us, and I think a little bit uniquely, I think, is the number of projects we already have coming on in '25, '26 and '27, give a great runway of growth. And I don't remember a time when we've looked out and thought we've got this kind of accelerating growth into that past the next 3 or 4 years. So I do think that we just got done with our long-range plan and strategic planning. It was a very encouraging look at what our business looks like for the future with the kind of demand that we have coming in. And frankly, I would say we've been pretty conservative in marking that into our plan at this point. So yes, I do think that we certainly -- there's very high profitability that we'll be able to exceed that over the next 5 years.
Spiro Dounis:
Great. That's helpful color. Second question, just going to M&A. Was hoping for an update on the landscape. And if you're seeing the same value proposition you saw over the last 2 years or maybe if we could expect you to look a little bit more inward now and consolidate some of these other JV positions?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I mean there's certainly an inventory of opportunity. Obviously, the discovery joint venture that we bought in here in -- just recently, obviously, is one of those that was important for us and particularly where we're seeing the growth. And certainly, as we look at the free cash flow that this business generates, we are looking for places to make wise investments with that capital. And so that certainly represents a target opportunity for us in terms of the joint ventures that we -- I would say, we were very fortunate to have great partners like the Canadian investment -- Canadian Public Investment Fund that helped us in the OVM area and helped us really expand that area pretty dramatically. And we're excited to have them as partners, but there will be a time perhaps where they would want to monetize that. So a good example of one where it worked out perfectly well and now provides an inventory investment opportunity for us in future. But I would say we're going to be patient about that, and we're going to have to have a willing seller on the other side to want to go and execute those.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.
Manav Gupta:
Quick follow-up a little bit on the lines of Spero. It looks like you bought some stuff from PSX. I know as a part of a partnership, about $170 million you paid for it. So help us understand the strategic thought rationally if buying at this point and buying from PSX? And obviously, I think PSX is in market with some other assets would you be interested in those also?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. This is Chad Zamarin. I'd say, again, we owned 60% of the Discovery joint venture with Phillips 66, and they've been a great partner for us. But -- you've heard a lot about our offshore growth. And so it's certainly a core part of our business and a very attractive growth profile ahead. And so we very core for us, I think you'd probably hear not core for PSX. So as Alan mentioned, where we have joint venture interests, we understand the operations of those facilities. It's a low-risk investment for us. We see growth coming. In this quarter, if you think about Discovery, we were able to acquire that at what we think is a low multiple on a go-forward basis, as you'll see the growth in Discovery really ramp up remainder of this year and even more impressively into 2025 and beyond. And are stable on the other hand, again, an asset that we've owned for a had a great relationship there, but not core to our business, and Pembina has been consolidating their ownership in Aux Sable and the Alliance pipeline system. And so we're able to sell that we saw pretty high mobile and. And you think about the difference in those cash flows, Aux Sable is a more volatile commodity-exposed set of cash flows discovery contracted asset that's going to grow. So I don't think that, that should be translated to other assets that PSX may own. It really is us, I think, rotating and optimizing our portfolio in a way that's going to create incremental value. And that's really the strategy when we look at any transaction, where do we have a unique opportunity to turn something into more value by owning or consolidating that interest.
Manav Gupta:
Perfect. My quick follow-up is, obviously, we get a lot of questions on storage. So what is your thought process on current storage rates and expansion opportunity? You could talk about the set of opportunities as it is to storage?
Chad Zamarin:
Sure. Yes, this is Chad again. We've only owned the Hartery storage assets for just 6, 7 months, and we've already seen really attractive recontracting of storage at rates that have exceeded our expectations. We have been in the test whether or not we're seeing those rates and the tenor of terms approach expansion economics. We've seen the storage market certainly growing in value. That's why we acquired Nordex, the Gulf Coast storage. We acquired Clay Basin in the largest storage asset in the Rockies as part of the MountainWest acquisition. And in all cases, we've seen an increase in value in storage over the last few years. I'd say that we're still climbing the curve towards what we think makes sense from an expansion perspective are, I think, approaching the rates that are required for both brownfield and potentially greenfield expansion, but we're still needing to see a bit more depth in erosion rates for us to put large capital to work in expanding those facilities. But all signs are -- we've shaped the fundamentals. We haven't grown stores as a country at all over the last 10 years, while gas demand has been and will continue to grow significantly and importantly, we'll grow in more volatile markets. And so we have a lot of confidence that storage will continue to increase in value and we will, at some point, reach the point at which expansions it makes a lot of sense.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann:
And my first question, just on the gum, especially. Could you talk about the continued upside there. Specifically, it's interesting. It seems like you have a lot of opportunities for additional projects. I mean, I think you all mentioned the 2 to 0 CapEx tiebacks that you announced after in that acreage dedication. So I'm just wondering sort of not even for the remainder of this year, but in '25, how are you sort of looking at upside potential there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. A lot of exciting things going on in the Deepwater. And again, we've got so much activity going on. I think it's easy to overlook the amount of execution that's gone on, on projects like Well, which were -- Shell is working the way at most of our work has retired on that at this point. And so there's a little bit of remaining commissioning but for the most part, our work there and the risk of our work has been retired. So we're excited about seeing that project come on. And that by far is the largest. The second largest is Chevron's Ballymore project, and that's actually been accelerated a little bit, from our original plans in terms of the timing on that will take a shutdown on the in faith platform that feeds into us here in the back half of this year. But exciting project coming on there as well. And a great example of one where very large project kind of like anchor, but no capital required on our part. Those are very favorite projects in terms of adding incremental value in the business. And there's a lot of drilling activity going on and -- in and around our assets that we think is going to continue to drive value. One of the things that's really changed in the Deepwater is, if you roll the clock back 15, 20 years ago, people were building these mammoth platforms -- floating platforms, deepwater platforms that were an incredible engineering feeds. But it took a long time, a lot of uncertainty and a lot of risk. And today, what we're seeing is producers working hard to find reserves and develop reserves around their asset base and their existing infrastructure. And with that comes extremely high incremental returns for us because we're not having to build out to that new infrastructure. And so I would say in the Deepwater, that is one of the really powerful things for us is the fact that we built a lot of this infrastructure with latent capacity in it and add that -- just because it costs so much to lay a line in that depth of water way. And as that latent capacity fills up, we're getting very high incremental cash flows off of that. So -- but we are continuing to see a lot of activity and the producers happen to be. We're very fortunate that a lot of the activity happens to be centered around our asset base in the Deepwater. And it really goes not just in the Western Gulf where there's a lot of activity. The Central Gulf, which we talked about today with both Anchor and Winterfell and Shenandoah is the next to come on. Next year, we spend a lot of time and effort getting prepared for Shenandoah because it is a fairly large prospects that will be coming on to our discovery system that will be coming on next year. And then in the Eastern Gulf, of course, you heard me mention the Hess project, it's a tieback Gulf Star as well as the Chevron's Ballymore prospect. So a lot of activity going on could be happier to have the really strong competitive advantages that we have
Neal Dingmann:
Fantastic details. And then just one quick one on West. Specifically, you've been -- there's been quite a bit going on in the DJ with -- around the acquisitions there. I'm just wondering can you talk about potential near-term upside around what you see for those acquisitions?
Alan Armstrong:
Sorry, me on Curtin and our Rock?
Neal Dingmann:
Yes.
Alan Armstrong:
Chad, do you want to take that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I would say that area continues to perform and, frankly, outperform. We really like the positioning that we have. We've got not only are we seeing more integration value in being able to optimize processing and gathering in basin. But because we market and transport the NGLs, we see a lot of margin from that growth further downstream. And so -- yes, I think you're already seeing some of the important contributions, and we do expect that to continue to grow for a long time to come. So we expect our performance
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Zack Van Everen of TPH & Company.
Zack Van Everen:
Just shifting to the Northeast. You mentioned rates on the Susquehanna and Bradford ticked up this quarter. I know you have cost of service contracts, at least on the Bradford side. Was that part of dynamic? Or was this something else? And is this kind of a good run rate going forward? Or is this kind of a onetime revenue makeup like we saw last year?
Micheal Dunn:
Well, this is Micheal. With the cost of service agreement we had in Bradford has reverted to a fixed fee for the contract terms. So that has been finished and completed and negotiated with all the customers on the Bradford. And so I would just say, we did have a onetime drop last year that obviously affected the comparable for this year. But other than that, you should expect to see this as a run rate. Fee with obviously escalation being the variable there going forward. And then any expansions that we do would be negotiated as well through the capital that would be invested in those expansion opportunities there in Bradford.
Alan Armstrong:
Probably the main thing that you see in the numbers you're looking at a the fact that when we see more and more activity in the rich gas like we've been seeing, you see our margins in the rich gas are almost double what they are in the sometimes more than that. And so as the drilling moves into some of these rich gas developments like in the Utica and in Southwestern PA and West Virginia, you will see our average rate increase as the more and more of the mix moves into the rich gas. In addition to that, though, we have the inflation adjuster that hits every spring as well. And so that picks up those rates as well. So a lot of positive momentum on rates. And importantly, as we've said in the past, when the dry gas area is challenged, typically, we see the rich gas respond, and we make somewhat higher margin on the rich guest because of all the services we provide on it that tends to offset declines in the dry gas.
Zack Van Everen:
Got you. That makes sense. And then maybe shifting to the Rockies. One of your peers announced they'd be converting their crude pipe out of the Bakken that flows into Wyoming into NGL service. Probably a little bit far out, but is there a space on Overland? And would you guys be interested in able to take those volumes if they were to approach you on that?
Alan Armstrong:
Chad, do you want to take that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, sure. This is Chad. There is based on Overland Pass and we do see that as an opportunity. And I think good, frankly, for the Bakken producers that are some takeaway diversity, and we're certainly focused on making sure we'd be a good option to receive NGLs from the Bakken and from the Powder River Basin. So yes, we do think there's an opportunity there. We're not going to get too far ahead of that, but we're hopeful to see those barrels fighting south. And yes, we've got capacity in one pass that would be available.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier of CIBC Capital Markets.
Robert Catellier:
Understanding that you flow rates by the end of the month on Transco. Could you give us any insight into the progress you're making there in the likelihood of a settlement? And also your interpretation of shipper appetite to support modernization investments in light of your new methane intensity targets?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes, we would love to see a settlement there. We'll obviously get our rate case filed at the end of the month and then work on seeing if we can get to a settlement. We've obviously been talking to the customers for quite some time about the modernization efforts that we have underway. And there should be no surprise to them when we make our filing and they see the amount of investment that we've made there. And so we do think that will help possibly grease the skids for some type of modernization tracker with them so that we could smooth out some of these increases going forward on the Transco assets, just like we've done on the Northwest pipeline. Rates with our last rate case that we settled there. So that is the intent going in as hopefully, we can get a modernization tracker, not just for our emissions reduction program, but for some of our pipe replacements that are needed some of the growing population centers there. We have a significant amount of pipe that we derated over the last several years and decades that we could upgrade and we will be doing that, but it would be better to do that through a modernization tracker as well. So that is the intent. But we've had a pretty good opportunity to discuss and alert the customers as to what to expect in this rate case. And once we get it filed, we'll start the settlement opportunities. But -- as you probably well know, the rates will go into effect on March 1 of next year, subject to refund once we either get a settlement or fully mitigate the outcome on the rate case.
Robert Catellier:
Okay. And then next question here is just on the -- what's going on in the legal realm. How does the DC circuit decision in REA and also the Chevron difference case reversal impact how you're approaching permitting?
Alan Armstrong:
Lane, do you want to take that?
Lane Wilson:
Yes, it's Lane Wilson. On REA, well, I mean, first Chevron difference. I don't think anybody really knows for certain -- how that's going to play out, except that it will likely force the administration and subsequent administrations to stick more closely to what Congress has set out in laws and probably means fewer pendulum swings. I think that's probably good for the industry on the whole. And in terms of REA, what was your specific question?
Robert Catellier:
Yes. I'm just wondering if that decision changes how you approach future permitting activities?
Lane Wilson:
Yes, I don't think so. I mean, I think we feel like FERC active certificate order that was very defensible. It's -- the decision is unfortunate that the DC Circuit did what it generally does in this situation to kind of lay out a path for the FERC to fix the certificate, and that's what we expect to happen. I don't think that the Chevron case, Lower has any real impact on the way we'll approach certificates in the future.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson of Scotiabank.
Tristan Richardson:
Just a question on the Gillis West project, a small project, but can you give out maybe some of the key differences between this project is a Transco expansion versus, say, a LEG from a permitting standpoint, right-of-way standpoint? It seems like this is certainly a smaller project, but offers quite a few efficiencies from a capital and permitting perspective.
Alan Armstrong:
Tristan, thanks for the question. And the reason this is important is because that CenterPoint has been plagued with a number of very high price spikes in the Texas intrastate market for various reasons. And this allows them access to gas supplies that are more associated with the Henry Hub from a pricing point and gives them reliable access to supplies from Louisiana without being dependent on the volatility that some of the Texas intrastate pipes and markets have imposed on them, both for power generation and for normal residential loads. So we think it's a great project for CenterPoint and important for us, really, all we need to do there is primarily just an interconnect and that will allow for us to provide gas supplies coming into the Louisiana market, places like Giles, which is becoming obviously an important pooling point for supplies. And this will allow them access to those supply points from places like the Haynesville and diversifies their supply and again, kind of moves them away through volatility. So for us, it's a great project because it's effectively. We're getting paid for transportation capacity flowing back to Texas and requires variable capital on our part, mostly just the interconnect there. So -- exciting and I think a meaningful improvement for Texas and the volatility they've had to deal with there from some of the suppliers into that market. And -- but in terms of -- this is just basically transmission quality gas coming out of Giles that will help supply directly to their markets there down the Transco corridor. So pretty simple on one hand, but pretty important on the other.
Tristan Richardson:
I appreciate it, Alan. And then maybe just on the last line of questioning a broader question about the regulatory environment. It's been 2 years since we've had a full board of commissioners and we're here at a time where you're seeing meaningful demand in the Southeast Mid-Atlantic. Can you talk about what you would like to see on the permitting side from a streamlining or just anything to be able to better accommodate the demand you're seeing?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. It's a great question. I think the primary issue with the permitting, it's not really the FERC. FERC, I think, has been very responsible agency, particularly under Chairman Philips leadership. And I think they're trying to do the very best to see responsible infrastructure get developed, and they realize it's very clear to them the kind of challenges that we're going to have on the grid if we don't have natural gas supplies available to provide incremental power supplies on the one hand and backing up renewables on the other. That is not lost on them at all. They face that responsibility as a commission and an agency, and I think they take it So that's not really where the problem. The problem really revolves around the NEPA process and the handles that it gives to environmental opposition to take up issues that have very little to do with the pipeline construction, but have to do with their own fight against fossil fuels. And because the NEPA process allows them to kind of grab hold of projects and appropriately the NEPA reform is probably the most important thing and really excited everybody has been talking about the Chevron deference, which we think is important, but you also saw the Supreme Court agreed to take up a review of the NEPA process as well. And I'm actually really excited to see that. That could really reform permitting in a way that's meaningful and really stop people from being able to just arbitrarily stop projects and they're tracking cause lawsuits in the process, which is the NEPA process that we know today. And so anyway, that's important to the 401 water quality certificate that the states are allowed that gives them a right to just stop projects is important to see that turned around and as well as the judicial standard for the way that a court would review a complaint against the permit. So those are really the 3 primary things that we're looking for. And I actually were pretty normally not very optimistic about seeing anything happening on the permitting reform, but really excited to see the Supreme Court taking on the NEPA review. So we could see some. It's not going to be quick, but we could see some relief there down the road.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen of Barclays.
Theresa Chen:
Based on what we've seen in the market very recently as far as the data center related or data center-driven brownfield expansion on natural gas transmission. The implied rates seem to be far above several multiples of existing tariffs and economics. Is that consistent with your expectations as you move through the process of addressing the sheer number of requests you have? And is that a key hurdle in getting these projects done in addition to speed to market?
Micheal Dunn:
Theresa, this is Micheal. Yes, I would say we're still going to be seeing negotiated rate contracts as we've been doing on our transmission businesses that are in excess of our base tariff rates believe that's what your question was. And as Alan said, there's a lot of opportunities that we're exploring, not just on Transco at on Northwest Pipeline or MountainWest Pipeline and Overthrust pipeline that we're considering and allocating resources to all of the analyze has been a bit of a challenge. And so redeploying some of our engineers and project development teams to really focus on this has been a critical activity over the last several months. But I would say we're going to see really good multiples on our projects. We aren't doing 6x multiple projects on any of our transmission businesses. And in fact, none of them have a 5 handle anymore. So I think that is a trend will continue because, as Alan said, the speed to market is incredibly important for these data center loads. And the fact that they need to be online quickly as their biggest priority as opposed to what their energy appears to us. And so that does certainly give us some leverage in the workplace especially with the I think it gives us an incredible opportunity to serve these new loads.
Theresa Chen:
Got it. And a follow-up on the regulatory front. As we approach the election season in the fall, what are your latest thoughts around that as it pertains to assets within your business? Any key considerations on your mind as we move through the next few months on this front?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, well, that's a big, hairy topic, but I'll just try to address it quickly. First of all, the taxes is probably are the most important thing, and it's very real to us in terms of the ability to continue to invest in these high-return projects that we have as an opportunity in front of how the tax impact on our business and the amount of free cash flow. So it's pretty obvious to us that delta and something we're keeping a close eye on. Beyond that and you have to remind people this that even during the prior Trump administration, we had major projects get stopped like Constitution and Nesi because of the 401 water quality certificate that allowed to stop project without really an ability for the government to solve that. And so I think it's great that there will be a bigger push. I actually think paying more attention to how Congress turns out and the legislative front is actually a bigger push because that's actually where we might see some reform in the law in a way that allows us to build out the pipeline infrastructure that we need. And so we saw recently the Manchin, Barrasso Bill did really nothing for the pipeline. And while we are very thankful to both Senator Mansion and Senator Manchin to Senator Barrasso and what they've done for our industry. In this case, that was really a throw to the transmission side of the business and really didn't do much for pipelines. And so we think there's got to be some -- and we did that. That's the state of the current Congress and the way the numbers stack up in there today. I think they both would like to do more, obviously, for pipelines if they thought that was possible. And so we do think that watching to see how the legislature turns out could be an opportunity to see some serious reform on the permitting front. So I would say we're paying a little more attention to that, frankly.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay of Goldman Sachs.
John Mackay:
I wanted to go back to the conversation quickly if we can around data centers. Just on the comments around speed to market. I was just wondering if you could flesh that out a little bit more for us, but that would actually look like? Is that the location on Transco? Is that something non-FERC jurisdictional? Anything you can bring up there would be helpful.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, John, thanks for the question. I would just say that what we're seeing is a shift because I think that the developers are realizing that they're kind of up against a brick wall right now in terms of extracting more generation off the grid. They realize that that's pretty well exited. And so they're going to look to areas where both natural gas resource is available. The capacity for it is available and as well as the permitting allows them to go build out some very significant power generation behind the meter on the one hand. We still are seeing a lot of growth on the utilities as well, more for the conventional data centers and the cloud-based data centers, a lot of growth continuing as well as just general electrification of load. Sorry, that is driving that as well. But in terms of the hyperscaler and their approach right now, we are seeing them look all the way back into areas where the gas resource is abundant and the permitting allows for getting on with developing the infrastructure that they need to have reliable and affordable power into those markets. But as Micheal -- I think the -- in my earlier comments, the speed to market seems to be the thing that is most top of mind for the big, big hyperscaler developers. And so that's where we think there's going to be opportunity in places like Wyoming where we have a lot of gas resource available and a lot of wind resource available as well. And so I think we're going to see that. But we're also going to get a lot of indirect load from our utilities in these other areas as both the conventional data centers and electrification continues to grow in those markets.
John Mackay:
I appreciate that, and I acknowledge we're at top of the hour. I'll squeeze one more in. It's relatively small, but pretty interesting. I guess we've had a lot of conversations around trying to get gas out of Texas into Louisiana given the LNG ramp. I guess I'd just be curious your perspective, is this a macro trend kind of shifting? Is this kind of more of a maybe one-off with this customer? Anything you can kind of frame up from a kind of Louisiana demand-ramp perspective would be interesting.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, I would just say, if you think about all of the supply that the Haynesville has available and some of the resources even south of Haynesville that we think will get developed in a pricing environment that's coming forward right now. We think that having access to those Louisiana supplies the diversity of supply, is really important. Again, as I've mentioned in my comments, if you think about the pain that has been inflicted on some of the Texas utilities from the Texas intrastate market where they didn't have us to a more diverse supply. We think this is a trend. I mean, it only makes sense that they're going to look to see what's been imposed on them from a pricing standpoint and look for more liable loss supplies to be available. And to me, that's the important thing about this is then recognizing that, that fluctuation did not occur in places like Louisiana and really only incurred on the Texas intrastate markets, and this gives them access to a more diverse supply. So that is the keynote to take away from that project.
Operator:
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back over to Alan Armstrong, President and CEO, for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much for joining us today. An exciting time for us here at Williams as we continue to deliver the long list of projects that we have in execution and that continues to mount growth for us. and importantly, how strong the future is in terms of the demand that we are excited that we have an opportunity to help address, but an exciting challenge for the organization that we're excited to show what we're made of on that front. So with that, thank you very much for joining us today.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Williams First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG and Investment Analysis. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Andrea, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings and press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, who will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development.
In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile with generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the day's presentation material. And with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. Well, another first quarter and another strong start for Williams. So let me begin here on Slide 2 by calling out a few operational financial and strategic achievements we saw this first quarter. Starting here on the left of this slide, Yet again, we've set a record for contracted transmission capacity led by Transco, the largest and fastest-growing natural gas pipeline. And in January, we closed on our acquisition of a portfolio of Natural Gas Storage assets from an affiliate of Hartree partners for approximately $1.9 billion. The transaction included 6 underground natural gas storage facilities located in Louisiana and Mississippi, making us the largest owner of storage on the Gulf Coast.
Demand for natural gas has greatly outpaced natural gas storage capacity since 2010. And our thesis of this underinvestment is now being realized as this newly acquired storage is being re-contracted at rates above our acquisition expectations. In fact, storage rates have reached the point of supporting Brownfield expansions, and we are gauging interest from customers willing to underwrite potential expansion of these facilities in the form of long-term contracts. Also in the first quarter, we announced the expansion of the Southeast Supply Enhancement project to roughly 1.6 Bcf a day of capacity, and we prefiled this project with the FERC on February 1. We expect to make the official FERC filing later this year. And I'll remind you that this project will serve both the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast markets. These markets are experiencing increasing gas demand from power generation and the reshoring of industrial loads. Since the time of our open season, the large utilities that we serve in this area have come back and provided dramatic increases to their generation needs based on data centers to be built in the region, as well as reshoring of industrial markets. So we believe that we are in the early innings for expansions in these Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets. Our project execution teams also delivered an impressive list of accomplishments this quarter. In total, we have 20 high-return projects in execution across our business, including approximately 3.1 Bcf per day of expansion on Transco, which equates to a 15% increase in fully contracted long-term capacity that will be coming online over the next few years. Within these Transco opportunities, a few noteworthy accomplishments to hit. First, we placed the Carolina Market Link in service and now began receiving the full revenues in this quarter. Next, we commenced construction for the Southside Reliability Enhancement and the Southeast Energy Connector projects, and we received the FERC order for the Alabama-Georgia Connector and the Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway projects. And finally, we're advancing a number of modest but high-return expansion projects on our MountainWest Transmission System. This is a period where we have a tremendous amount of large projects and sometimes it's easy to overlook things as large as even the well deepwater project but happy to report to you that great execution by our teams there in some pretty difficult environments has that project coming in quite a bit below our original capital estimate on that project, and we do expect now this project to start up towards the end of this year. So congratulations to our deepwater team that have been working on that project for about 4 years now, and pretty remarkable accomplishments to get that project in on budget and actually below budget. And then finally, our teams are well on their way to replacing 112 mainline compressor units with state-of-the-art low-emission turbines and electric drive units on Transco and Northwest Pipe. As a reminder, these projects will generate an incremental regulated return realized through a rate case or a traction mechanism that will begin in 2025. So again, a huge body of work there to go in and replace this compression that is well past its useful life, but the team is doing a great job. You can imagine the efforts that go into replacing that scale of operations. But we have so much going on. It's kind of easy to miss. So and we're excited to see the earnings from that show up in '25. So now turning to the highlights of our first quarter financial performance. We delivered quarterly EBITDA of $1.934 billion, which was 8% higher than last year, an impressive feat given the tough comp we were up against and the 25% year-over-year decline in natural gas prices and the lack of severe winter weather in most of our markets. An important takeaway from the quarter is that our outperformance occurred despite year-over-year lower earnings in the marketing and upstream segments, which reaffirms the strength and resilience of our underlying business, no matter the commodity price environment. To this end, we expect to deliver our EBITDA in the top half of our earlier guidance. And to be clear, we think we can accomplish this with continued soft gas prices and without any further earnings contributions from our Marketing segment. Due to the ongoing steady growth and resilience of our business, we recently raised the 2024 dividend by 6.1% underscoring our confidence in our ability to continue this strong record of per share growth through even extreme low commodity price environments and with the slate of high-return growth projects under execution right now and in development. Williams remains well positioned to grow at this rate for many years to come. And with that, I'll turn it over to John to walk through the quarter and year-to-date financials. John?
John Porter:
All right. Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 3 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance. Beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw an 8% year-over-year increase despite natural gas prices that averaged less than $2 for the first quarter of 2024. Now included in that 8% overall growth is almost 13% growth from our primarily fee-based infrastructure businesses, excluding marketing and the upstream JV. As we'll see on the next slide, our adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by strong growth from our core large-scale Natural Gas Transmission, Gathering and Processing and Storage businesses, including the expected favorable effects of our recent acquisitions. And it also included strong performance from our Sequent Marketing business, which had another strong start to the year despite falling a bit short of the extraordinary start they had to 2023.
Our adjusted EPS increased 5% for the quarter, continuing to grow off of the 19% ,5-year CAGR we've had for EPS for 2018 through 2023. And available funds from operations growth was just over 4%. Also, you see our dividend coverage based on AFFO was a very strong 2.6x on a dividend that grew 6.1% over the prior year. And our debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.79x in line with our expectations for slightly higher leverage in 2024 before dropping back down in 2025 to guidance of 3.6x. So before we move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our adjusted EBITDA growth for the quarter. We'll provide a few updates to our financial guidance. Overall, based on our strong start to 2024, we are now guiding to the upper half of our 2024 adjusted EBITDA range of $6.95 billion to $7.1 billion and we are also well positioned for upside to drive towards the high end of this original guidance. We also remain well positioned to deliver on our 2025 adjusted EBITDA range of $7.2 billion to $7.6 billion. Additionally, based on our improved adjusted EBITDA outlook and other changes, including interest expense and income assumption shifts, we now see our key per share metrics, adjusted EPS and AFFO per share coming in at the high end of their ranges for 2024, which in the case of AFFO per share would lead to a higher overall dividend coverage ratio as well. Now specifically for 2024, our transmission in Gulf of Mexico business is tracking a bit ahead of plan with a good first quarter and expectations of continued best-in-class execution on our many key high-returning organic projects, as well as immediate results from our Gulf Coast storage acquisition with strong performance expected going forward. Our Northeast Gathering and Processing business was basically right on plan for first quarter with drilling in the higher-margin wet gas areas and inflation adjusters offsetting lower volumes in some dry gas areas. The West got off to a strong start in the first quarter, where DJ performance following our recent transactions along with all the hard work our teams did in preparing for winter allowed for excellent execution, especially across our Rocky's assets. We see the West also tracking a bit ahead of plan, although we're also embedding a bit more conservatism around Haynesville volume assumptions. For both the Northeast and West G&P assets, our guidance update today provides room for additional volume reductions and for upside movement toward the higher end of the range if those don't occur. For the Marketing business, we've had a strong overall start to 2024. But again, beating the midpoint of our full year 2024 guidance doesn't rely on any additional help from Sequent at this point. And then finally, nice to see our upstream joint ventures off to a strong start versus our plan, again, supported by the preparation our team made for winter weather. So we expect our upstream joint ventures to perform well against their plan this year as well. So let's turn to the next slide and take a little closer look at the first quarter results. Again, it was a strong start to the year with 8% growth over the prior year. Walking now from last year's $1.795 billion to this year's record $1.934 billion, we start with our Transmission in Gulf of Mexico business, which improved $111 million or 15% due to the combined effects of nearly a full quarter contribution from the Hartree Gulf Coast Storage acquisition, which is delivering as expected, following a flawless integration effort thus far. Higher Transco revenues, including partial and service from the Regional Energy Access project, and also a full quarter contribution from the MountainWest Pipeline acquisition, which closed mid-February in 2023. The Segment growth was unfavorably impacted by last year's Bayou Ethane divestiture and also some planned maintenance at Discovery. Our Northeast G&P business performed well with the $34 million or 7% increase driven by a $22 million increase in service revenues. This revenue increase was fueled by rate escalations that occurred after the first quarter of last year. Overall Northeast Gathering volumes performed roughly in line with our plan, down about 2% versus the prior year, with those decreases focused in the dry gas areas. Shifting now to the West, which increased $42 million or 15%, benefiting from a great start for the DJ transactions we completed in the fourth quarter of 2023. Now the increase in the DJ Basin results was about the same magnitude as the unfavorable loss of hedge gains that we had in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, last year, the West was significantly unfavorably impacted by the severe Wyoming weather and January processing economics at our Opal, Wyoming processing plant. As I mentioned a moment ago, much work was done by our teams to prepare for winter weather this year, and those preparations proved effective in getting us off to a great start for the West and also for our upstream operations in Wyoming. Overall, West gathering volumes performed roughly in line with our plan, up 5% on the benefits of our DJ transaction and better Wyoming volumes, which more than offset declines primarily in the Haynesville area. And then you see the $41 million or 18% decrease in our Gas and NGL marketing business. As I mentioned a moment ago, it was another strong start to the year, but it did come up a bit short of the extraordinary 2023 start. Our upstream joint venture operations included in our Other segment were down about $9 million or 15% from last year. Our Wamsutter upstream EBITDA was actually up about $8 million with strong volume growth that was substantially offset by lower net realized prices. However, the Wamsutter increase was more than offset by lower Haynesville results from both lower net production volumes and net realized prices. So again, a strong start to 2024 with 8% growth in EBITDA, driven by core infrastructure business performance with continued strength from our marketing business. And with that, I'll turn it back to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Thanks, John. And so just a few closing remarks before we turn it over to your questions. First of all, natural gas demand is not just growing now, it is accelerating. This period of low natural gas prices is reaffirming the great bargain that natural gas offers as a practical low-cost, clean energy solution and the power hungry world we live in is rapid turning to natural gas to generate this power. This compounded with the hard to miss growth in LNG exports and data centers as well as the continued drumbeat of electrify everything and resort it is accelerating demand and the expansions of our uniquely placed infrastructure will demand a premium. We have been betting on and setting our strategy around the benefits of natural gas for many years and have focused our investments in this space.
So if you want to invest in natural gas infrastructure, no one is more concentrated than Williams. We are the most natural gas-centric large-scale midstream company around today, and our natural gas-focused strategy will be relevant for decades to come, thanks to the accelerating natural gas demand we are seeing today. Our strong conviction of the strategy led us to the bolt-on acquisitions of strategic assets like MountainWest Pipeline, Hartree Storage and NorTex Storage. A couple of points on these acquisitions. First, these deals were quickly -- sorry, these deals were directly in line with our strategy based on where we thought the puck was going. The synergies and commercial opportunities we expected are already being realized, thanks to clear plans and decisive actions. And finally, I'll reiterate our belief that Williams remains a compelling investment opportunity. Our conservative but distinct strategy continues to deliver steady, predictable growth and value to our shareholders and checks all the boxes that a long-term investor looks for in a durable and winning portfolio. We've now seen 11 consecutive years of adjusted EBITDA growth and an 8% CAGR of adjusted EBITDA since 2018 and I'll remind you that, that is without issuing equity to drive this growth. In addition, we have recognized a 19.5% return on our invested capital during the same period, and our steadfast project execution has led to record contracted transmission capacity and will continue to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. On the predictability front, we have met or beat analyst estimates for 33 quarters in a row now and beat the estimate 2/3 of the time over this 8-year period. And this year marks the 50th year in a row that The Williams Companies has paid a dividend. In closing, we've built a business that is delivering record profitability and strong financial returns in the present, but is positioned even better for the future. And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi.
Spiro Dounis:
First one, maybe to start with the guidance, two-part question there. So John, you'd mentioned leaving room for some volume reductions from here. Curious if you could provide a little more detail there and how to think about maybe the cadence as we go throughout '24? And just given that you've left '25 EBITDA unchanged. Sounds like maybe '25 also contemplates some slower activity levels. So just curious to kind of get some confirmation around that?
John Porter:
Yes, I'll start and then Micheal can chime in as well. But yes, I think, overall, we are being cautious, obviously, with where natural gas prices are and especially during the shoulder months. So we started off with a plan that I think embedded a fair amount of cautious, I think, caution, and I think since then, we've taken a little bit more caution just given where things finished from the time that we were at Analyst Day, which was really mid-winter to where we finished the year. So hopefully, we will actually experience some upside relative to these assumptions, but we are going into the rest of the year with quite a bit of caution, especially around the dry gas areas.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. This is Micheal. I can add to that. Obviously, we talk to our producer customers quite often about their plans and they're shifting, obviously, back and forth, depending on where prices are. We feel really comfortable where we've had predicted our results to occur in the second half of the year here with our guidance -- confident. Based on the volume expectations that we have coming from the customers. And so just as a reminder, and I always say this, we have a lot of diversity across geography, customers and rich gas as well as dry gas. And obviously, that benefits us and having that diversity and so we're still seeing some activity on the rich gas side, it's benefiting not only our gathering but our processing business in the Northeast. And as I said, we feel confident about the volumes that we have embedded within our going-forward plans here in 2024.
Spiro Dounis:
Great. Appreciate the color there. Second question, maybe going to data centers. Alan, your credit, you've been talking about data center demand for a few quarters now. It seems to be a bit more mainstream to say the least at this point. So curious to maybe get your updated thoughts on how you're thinking about that data center demand going forward? And really what I'd love to know more about is when do you think we start to see tangible sort of commercial discussions start to take place and filter through?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question, Spiro. And I do think that this is one that will grow over time. Each individual data center isn't going to show up as a big pool and demand given the size and scale of most of these big transmission systems. So it is going to be the collective amount of data centers in these markets that's going to show up. But there certainly is a lot of fury going on right now, I would say, both with our utility customers. And we certainly are working closely with them to make sure that we can serve their needs and the growth in their needs. I would tell you that it's broader than even though data centers and AI gets all the hype, it's actually broader than that in terms of a lot of reshoring of industrial loads that is occurring as well. And part of that is because natural gas is so low cost here. If you think about the rest of the world and the energy cost expanding in the rest of the world and the U.S. sitting here on such a great resource of low-cost energy, it is reshoring industrial loads as well.
And so I would say it's a combination of those things that tends to center around low-cost power. So I would just say, first of all, this isn't going to be a one-and-done kind of issue, it's not going to happen maybe as quick as some people are expecting, but -- because it does take a long-term planning to be able to serve the kind of ultimate loads that we're talking to our customers about. But I do think it is going to be very sizable and very impactful. I just don't think it's going to happen quite as quick as a lot of people think it will, just because a lot of these areas, we are constrained on infrastructure. And so it's going to take some time and planning to be able to address that. But we are looking at it both with our customers, and we are also looking in terms of both direct serve as well, where all of the combinations of low-cost gas, land and communication capacity all come together. So I would tell you, we, as Williams, are working very hard. It's a very high priority for us to make sure that we don't let any of these opportunities slip by us, and we've got a great team assembled that's working on that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to dive a bit further into the natural gas market, if I could. It appears a bit oversupplied at this point in time. And just wondering any thoughts you could share, I guess, in how you see supply-demand balancing over the course of this year and into 2025 and I guess how that might impact Williams trajectory at that point?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question, Jeremy. I firmly agree with the notion that the market is oversupplied right now. And it's kind of a unique time because we've had the market in such strong contango here for quite some period. Putting a lot of value on our Storage. I would tell you we feel very fortunate to have bought the storage that we bought in the time frame that we bought and to pick up the contracts that Sequent had on storage as well. So a lot of in the money business around the storage business because of the strong contango. But that strong contango is also keeping rigs running that might not otherwise be running right now. And I think that's adding to the oversupply situation. But we certainly are starting to see producers respond to that. And we're also starting to see the demand side respond to that as well. And I think we'll see more of that this summer, and the market always finds a way to balance itself with low enough prices.
But it's definitely oversupplied right now. And I do think that once the demand materializes that we would expect in -- starting in mid-'25, I do think that we're going to start to see a big call on gas that will last for years to come. So it is going to be a period though of people having to be patient and waiting on the market. And it's going to take some turn back, if you will, here in the short term, but I think people are appropriately looking to the future. And it is -- the future is pretty clear and pretty transparent when we think about LNG demand, and we think about incremental demand from our customers on both power -- traditional power generation is maybe as well as direct power generation as well. So short term, we're oversupplied. That's causing a lot of contango in the market. But I think that contango is well-founded because there's such a transparent and clear picture of demand for the future.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And then I just want to pivot over to LEG and I was wondering if you could provide any updates on project progress at this point given litigation other items in play? And any thoughts, I guess, on Basins in Southern Louisiana just given there seems to be a concern that, that could widen out without the infrastructure coming into service?
Micheal Dunn:
Jeremy, this is Micheal. I'll take that. I'll start with a bit of a higher level in regard to pipeline crossings and generally, we have almost 26,000 pipeline crossings in the U.S. that have been built over the last several decades, just under 2,200 of those are with energy transfer. And for the most part, those are all being done by our operators in the field unless you have some design issues that you've got to get your engineers involved with. But for the most part, each of our companies work that out in the field until most recently. So we've been challenged in Louisiana and some other states by Energy Transfer and our ability to cross their pipeline. And I would say the tide is turning now on the legal issues. We're seeing the appellate ruling from the Louisiana court that overturned, the lower court ruling in the DTM case.
We certainly think that's going to be the same outcome that we'll have on our cases, ultimately, it certainly is troubling that we're having these difficulties with an industry peer. But ultimately, we're going to get our pipeline project built out of the Haynesville, there's definitely a need to move volumes to our gathering systems. To the demand centers in the Gulf Coast area and ultimately, we'll get through the legal process. We'll get through the FERC process, has now been initiated by Energy Transfer, certainly, this was a move that we expected Energy Transfer to do. And so it was anticipated, and that was established within our project schedule that I talked about at the Analyst Day. So we still expect the second half 2025 in service date. And just in closing, we filed permitted and installed more FERC regulated pipelines in the U.S. than any operator, over the last decade. We fully know well when a project is when it comes to either being a designated gathering line or when it should be FERC regulated. And we've taken that certainly into consideration in the formulation in the design of the LEG project. And ultimately, we'll get it built. And it's unfortunate that we're having these delays, but I'm very confident in our ability to finish this project as we've outlined in our most recent schedule. It's going to be needed. The growth in the LNG demand in the Gulf Coast is going to happen. We're certainly seeing the expectations of that occurring late this year and early 2025 when some of the new facilities are coming online. And so we're as I said, very confident about the project and looking forward to getting the legal issues behind us and getting on with construction.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.
Manav Gupta:
Congratulations on a very strong quarter. I only have one question. When we look at your 2025 guidance here, can you help us elaborate the growth CapEx, like key projects that you'll be looking to spend the money in 2025 to grow your EBITDA from '25 ahead? But can you help us identify some of those key projects that the good spending will be done on?
John Porter:
Yes, absolutely. So when we look at 2025, we've got really quite a bit of spend expected on the Louisiana Energy Gateway project that Micheal just referred to. So that would be in the category of gathering and processing expansions. And by far, the biggest in the gathering and processing area would be the Louisiana Energy Gateway pipeline project. We do have some new Energy Ventures investments that we're expecting to begin to spend some money on, including our first Carbon Capture and Sequestration project, which is at the terminus of the Louisiana Energy Gateway project. So it's related to that LEG project. But we also have some solar projects that we'll be investing in.
We will have some of our contributions to our upstream JVs, those are typically smaller amounts of capital. But then finally, you can see the long list of transmission projects that we have on Transco and MountainWest that are still in execution. Obviously, we're wrapping up regional energy access this year, but you'll see many, many that will continue to have a spend going into 2025 as those reach their in-service dates in 2025. So that would be the main pieces of the growth capital for 2025.
Alan Armstrong:
And Gupta, I would just add in terms of drivers for growth in '25. We have a number of large deepwater projects that we've already spent a majority of the capital, those will be coming on towards the end of this year and into next year. So we're really excited about the big step-up in deepwater growth and how well we're positioned out there for what we think is going to be a lot of continued growth in that area. So -- but in terms of drivers for growth, that's one additionally, drivers for growth would be the rate case on Transco. And so the benefit of all the money we're spending right now on the emission reduction projects will show up. The benefits of that will show up when we start charging our new rates in March of '25. So those are some of the other drivers for growth.
John Porter:
Yes, I didn't do a great job of connecting that to growth. So thanks, Alan. Just specifically, we have 6 Transco growth projects that are in service between the second half of '24 and 2025, and 5 major Gulf of Mexico projects, that are in service as well as well as that Transco rate case that Alan mentioned. And -- but in many cases, those are projects where we've already spent the capital. Or in some of the cases of some of the deepwater projects, there were no capital requirements at all.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Maybe let me start with a data center question here. So most of the expansions on Transco over the last few years have taking place in the Northeast. But if we start to see large AI data center build-out or even some of the reshoring that you talked about in other regions along Transco's path like the Southeast and that the bottleneck for more capacity shifts south on Transco. Just trying to think about how that impacts things. Is there more opportunity for maybe higher return compression expansions on the southeastern part of Transco or just more available capacity there? Or do you think expansions anywhere along Transco are kind of uniform in terms of return?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Good question. Yes, the first evidence of that, even though it really was before the data center load became quite so evident, is our Southeast supply enhancement project. We've announced that and now filed it in the first quarter for 1.6 Bcf a day, and that does serve both the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast markets. Since that time, as I mentioned, those utilities have come out and said that they were missing their growth targets by many multiples. In fact, I think Southern companies came out and said they missed their original growth for power generation by 17 times. So lots going on in those markets. In terms of our abilities to serve those, we're extremely well positioned to serve that.
Again, Southeast Supply Enhancement project is the first initial example of that, and that will serve projects along Transco to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, starting at Station-165, and we'll take advantage of supplies coming in from the Mountain Valley Pipeline at 165. In terms of the future, continued ability to expand along system and ability to restore pipeline pressures on systems that have been derated over time due to population encroachment in the areas. So lots of ways for us to expand along that existing capacity. And believe me, there is a lot of work going on right now with our teams and with our customers in those areas, figuring out the very best solutions to serve their growth needs in that area. And there's a lot going on in that front that we're not in a position to talk about yet. But a lot of -- a lot of expansion in that corridor. And again, Transco is extremely well positioned to serve that with the expansions of our existing systems.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. That's helpful. And then I just had a couple of questions here on the Washington Storage Transition to market-based on Transco. Can you just help frame maybe how much of an uplift you expect for moving that from -- to market base from, I guess, cost of service? How much difference in rates could you see there? And then how much of that capacity do you need to go through an open season now? And how much of that capacity do you think third parties could take versus Sequent? And then finally, is this shift to market-based rates and the upside is that reflected in 2025 EBITDA guidance at all?
Alan Armstrong:
Mike, do you want to take that?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, I'll take that. So yes, to answer your last question first, that is embedded in our guidance for 2025. So the process where it stands now. FERC has approved our settlement with the customers, the customers have a choice to take a tranche of capacity on a term that they so desired. So they're making that decision now between now and the end of May. So ultimately, they'll decide upon how long of a term they want and there's already a pre-determined rate for that was embedded within the settlement. And so once they make that decision, that will be effective as of April of 2025. So that's when those rates will go into effect. So we definitely embedded what our expectations are with where we think the customers will end up in regard to their choices of selection.
Ultimately, we think that we fully subscribed by existing customers. It's a really good project for them. It's a great project for us. The storage is in high demand. We don't expect anybody to turn back any of that capacity at this time.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen:
A quick one on your Gulf projects. I think there's been some talk about there about Shenandoah being delayed, maybe half a year plus or minus. Can you talk about whether you're potentially seeing that? Or whether that would impact project economics or would just demand fees kick in regardless?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Gabe, I would just say our part of that project is on schedule. We're not really at liberty to get into details of the contracting details in that. But remain confident in what we have in the forecast for that project. So anyway, we're not going to speak for the producer. Our part of that project and our work there is on time and team's doing a great job of executing on that, and we'll be ready to serve when we were supposed to be ready to serve on that project.
Gabriel Moreen:
Understood. And then maybe if I can just talk LNG a little bit. There's a stake in the facility LNG export facility under construction that I know you've looked at pretty hard over the course of time. Are you interested in potentially looking at that stake? And just how it may or may not fit into a broader LNG strategy that you may be pursuing over time?
John Porter:
Gabe, are you referring to Port Arthur?
Gabriel Moreen:
I am.
Unknown Executive:
Chad, do you want to take that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I think in general, we're focused on high-return projects that we operate -- we build and operate. And so we continue to look at how we can connect our customers to the most attractive markets. LNG markets are obviously an important destination for U.S. natural gas. And so we're going to continue to look for ways to connect our customers and our value chain to those international markets. But we've typically not been looking for non-operated positions in infrastructure projects. We've got so many opportunities to invest in our kind of organic projects, that's been our primary focus. But again, if we find opportunities that come with our ability to connect our customers to better markets, we'll look at them, but that's certainly not the primary focus of our LNG strategy.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Neel Mitra with Bank of America.
Indraneel Mitra:
I had -- I wanted to follow up on the [indiscernible] expansion in your conversations with your big three utility customers there. You had an interesting slide at the Analyst Day where you talked about those utilities having quotes about not recurring enough natural gas and kind of underestimating power. When they made those quotes in your conversations, did that reflect the AI team. So do you think that the project that you've contracted so far has some AI components in it? Or is it just general electrification so far that's being reflected in that demand?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. To answer your question, our work on that in terms of developing that project, obviously, was even further ahead of when we announced that. And so you kind of have to remember that as you think about the timing of that. And to answer your question very simply, the degree -- the kind of incremental demand that we're talking about is not reflected in the [indiscernible] project. There might have been some expectation for that. But in terms of the large incremental growth impacts that customers are now starting to reflect in their integrated resource plans. Those are somewhat, I wouldn't say perfectly incremental, but certainly, a big chunk of that is incremental to the load that we're serving on [indiscernible].
Indraneel Mitra:
Okay. And then I wanted to follow up on some of your producer activity. I know one or more of your customers are delaying sales til gas prices get better. Do you have any updates on that? And then how do you factor that into '25 guidance if you just have a lower base going into '25 if those don't get turned in line?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, first of all, there's a lot of productive capability in these fields. And the ability to ramp that up and respond to the market. And I think the producers are managing their business in a way that they will be ready to respond to respond to it, as I mentioned in my comments earlier around gas supply demand balance, that's certainly what we're seeing is producers being willing and able to commit to what they need to on their end to be ready to respond to that. So I think there certainly will be some upside to our business in '25 as the market and supply start to respond to that. But it is typically a very long lag period and very difficult for the market to be able to respond quickly.
I do think, however, this time, and I hate to be the guy calling it's different this time. But because there is such strong contango in the market right now, we are seeing a different response and a different positioning from our producers than we typically see in this situation. And again, I think that's because there's such confidence in both the fundamentals and the visibility to the forward market that's suggesting that that's how they should behave at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Theresa Chen:
Alan, I'd like to go back and touch on the comments of strong contango benefiting your storage assets. Can you give us a sense of what you're seeing in changes in storage rates as contracts come up for renewal? And is this largely due to the current contango? And as we come out of the contango, do you think these economics are durable?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Good question, Theresa. I'll give you my comments, and I'm going to ask Chad to give you a little more detail on that. But I think over time, we have seen the value of storage, and we've certainly seen it with our own Sequent operations. We've seen the value of storage in these volatile markets and markets that are having to respond very quickly to shifts in demand continuing. I think it's also pretty visible to see that both with an increase in renewable power on the market as well as more and more LNG as that comes on LNG is going to need to be a little more responsive. It's not going to run at 100% load factor when the LNG is more -- is closer to meeting the more mature demand from that market. So I think those are a lot of the drivers for the increase in storage capacity.
As Micheal mentioned earlier, we certainly have seen a pretty strong response from our customers and making sure that they don't lose the benefits of the Washington storage facility and the flexibility of their business. And I think as the market turns to more and more hourly type service, and pipelines tighten up on the flexible services and no noted services that they previously offered. I think that's going to continue to put more and more pressure and more need for the storage business. And I think that's becoming pretty evident to the gas marketing business. In terms of contango driving the value, it's certainly one of the elements of value that is driving that. But I think it's a little broader than just the contango in terms of what's driving the pretty rapid increase in storage rates. And I'll let Chad talk a little more specifically about what we're seeing in rates.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I think it's a really important theme to keep an eye on what both the ability to set up our infrastructure to benefit from volatility and price that supports extraction value. But also importantly, we're seeing the transition. We've been talking about it for a while, increased volatility in power markets, Alan talked about the power demand that we're seeing -- I mean we talk often -- I mean, PJM numbers themselves say that by 2040, peak demand will more than double. That's a significant -- from a set of infrastructure that's already full. And so assets like storage will not only be driven from a value perspective by dislocations in price over time, like the contango we're seeing in the current market, but we are seeing an evolution and a recognition that you're going to need those assets for reliability.
Power -- produced power companies will need storage LNG companies. We're seeing much more variable demand coming in the future. And so not only will we be set up for storage to have value in the near term when there are price dislocations like we're seeing with the contango in the market, but we're also seeing an evolution of the market to recognize that storage value will increase even when there may not be apparent price dislocation, there will be a need for reliability in backup, both in supply and the ability to put gas into storage when upset conditions occur. So we're set up really well to benefit from both the value dislocations you see in the current market and the long-term fundamentals around the need for storage for reliability. So all that to be said, I don't think that the contango in the market is the only necessary driver for long-term storage value. We see long-term storage value both in markets where there are dislocations from a price perspective but also because of the long-term need for reliability and the important role that storage plays in providing reliability.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.
Tristan Richardson:
Alan, just maybe switching back to the thematic for a moment. At the Analyst Day, you and some of your guest speakers talked a lot about sort of that general need for permitting reform and how critical gas supply is to power sort of this increased demand we're seeing in electricity. How critical is sort of permitting or form or at least a more amenable regulatory environment for energy supply to kind of meet this accelerating demand growth you guys have talked about today and the slide you talked about with sort of the 3x demand you're seeing over the next decade?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say as the world turns off of coal, as the reliable baseload and is shifting more and more and more to natural gas as the base load, as Chad mentioned, that reliability issue is going to be really key and us continuing to stretch and deny the amount of capacity we really need in these markets, is going to become a louder and louder drumbeat. You're hearing it from the ISOs already. You're hearing it from -- starting to even hear from the utility commissions about how important it is that they have access to natural gas. You're even starting to hear it in places like Connecticut that are upset that they don't have low-priced gas into those markets because Governor Cuomo stopped a number of projects coming across the state. So it's unfortunate.
It's kind of like sometimes it's a terrible situation as we think about long-term infrastructure and politics, but the two don't meet very well together, unfortunately. And sometimes the bridge has to fail to people to realize that we have to spend money on maintaining and keeping our bridges safe. And I would say similar situation on gas infrastructure. We are heavily under-invested in gas infrastructure right now in terms of keeping up with this growing need. The good news is, I think the screen is going to get pretty loud and it's not just going to be from the gas industry when the tech industry is really struggling to get adequate supplies for data centers and power, I think that both the utilities are going to get loud on this. I think the tech companies are going to get loud on this. And hopefully, it doesn't come to a catastrophe in some of the markets, but it's amazing to me how quickly people forget how close we got last -- this last winter, how close we got to losing parts of the Northwest markets due to a couple of very small failures on some of our competitors' pipeline serving into us that caused a shortage as well as distorted at one of the big storage facilities up there. So we've been able to manage. We've been able to keep the gas service on, but we really haven't experienced a situation in these big heavily populated areas where we've lost gas service because people, I think, tend to think just like losing your power and it just clickers off and comes back on. That's not the way gas service works. And it will be a pretty catastrophic event. So thank you for asking the question because we certainly try to make it clear that we've got to invest adequately in our infrastructure, and it is going to take permitting reform to do that. I would say we're hopeful that we're getting more and more the moderate left engaged on this issue and understanding how important this is for their constituents as well. So I do think we're making progress on it, but it is a very large issue if we hope to keep up with demand. We're going to have to get better at building out infrastructure here in the U.S.
Tristan Richardson:
Appreciate it. And then maybe, John, just a smaller one. You appreciate kind of laying out sort of some of the puts and takes in the [indiscernible] segment year-over-year. But is there a number we can think of as what was the organic growth in the quarter? Just thinking about Hartree contributions as well as sort of a partial anniversary of MountainWest?
John Porter:
Yes. I think we think the acquisitions as it relates to Hartree and MountainWest Pipeline have tracked very well to the announcements we made in terms of the valuation and the multiples that were involved there. So I think you can -- you can rely pretty much in terms of sizing those impacts as to the announcements we made at the time of the acquisition. Obviously, with MountainWest Pipeline that closed on Valentine's Day in 2023. So that kind of allows you to size the relative size of the uplift in '24 versus '23 for MountainWest Pipeline. With Hartree, it closed very early in the year. So we pretty much had a full quarter of Hartree. So I think that I would just say size those two pieces.
It was a strong quarter for Transco. No doubt, they did have the nice uplift from partial and service of Regional Energy Access, but they had some good seasonal revenues as well. And we did mention a couple of things that work the other way though, the Bayou Ethane divestiture that we had last year, and I think we put some information out about that -- the size of that divestiture as well. And then we did have some planned downtime at Discovery, which was an impact as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.
John Mackay:
Maybe to keep it in the gas demand policy front. You guys have also talked a lot about coal plant retirements on your footprint, you kind of framed up maybe an upside number at the Analyst Day earlier this year. Just be curious, any thoughts you can share on the recent EPA updates around power plant carbon emissions? And how that's playing into your forward view?
Micheal Dunn:
John, this is Micheal. Yes, obviously, we're watching that closely and the fact that these new gas-fired power plants have to have some kind of sequestration on them in the -- in the midterm, I would say, is certainly taken into consideration by the utilities that are building these plants. I think ultimately, we'll probably be tempering of that. That's my opinion that whenever you see the EPA power plan come out with a new rule, it's certainly subject to litigation as they happened several times now, and I suspect this one will be no different. But that will be a challenge, I think, for the industry to respond to a lot of that sequestration requirement in regard to these combined cycle power plants. I mean it's technology that is available but it is going to be expensive. It's going to be expensive for the end user and the consumers.
And I certainly think utilities will take that into consideration in their plans. But we'll definitely see some coal plant retirements accelerating. And I think the rub there is, will they be able to meet demand with the acceleration of coal plant retirements with the AI boom that we're seeing. And I think that's going to be a big base in the boardrooms for the utilities to come.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And I would just add to that, the issue around sequestration, if you think about how difficult it's been to build sequestration pipelines in South Dakota and Iowa, in serving those markets. And if you think that we're going to be able to take sequestration to a new level in areas where there isn't good underground resources for sequestration along the East Coast. And pipe that through heavily populated areas. I just think that is very unrealistic perspective right now. And so I think this is a place again where politics and the popular notion of politics and good old-fashioned hard physics are not matching up. And to have the Sierra Club fighting a CO2 pipeline in Iowa that's going to sequester carbon, is really, I think, a forewarning about the practical nature of being able to sequester large volumes of CO2 in these heavily populated areas.
John Mackay:
I appreciate all that. Maybe just zooming back in on you guys specifically quickly. Appreciate the frame up of the gas storage opportunity. At the very beginning, you mentioned the rates have come into making brownfield economics work. I guess I'd just be curious like, how much do you think you guys can add on a Bcf basis across your existing footprint from a Brownfield perspective?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I mean, the fact is we have the right away through those areas. And so there's a very large number, but it's not as simple -- it's not a finite number by any stretch of imagination and it has its economic limits. And so said another way, it may not have its physical limits because we have the right of way through there, but it certainly has its economic limits. And so obviously, the easiest thing to do is to add compression in the area. And then next is replacing lines that are -- that we've had to derate over time.
Unknown Executive:
I think it's about storage.
Alan Armstrong:
Sorry, on storage. Sorry, I thought we were back on Transco sorry about that. I'll let Chad take that forward.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, sorry. Just on storage. We do have quite a bit of capacity at the salt-cavern facilities that we acquired in the Gulf Coast. And so -- and those expansions that we're looking at would likely come in kind of 10 Bcf tranches at each facility. And there is a lot of capacity to expand. I think we're going to be thoughtful about how to do that incrementally as the market kind of recognizes the need. And we're seeing that evolution, but we need to see storage contracts shift from short term to long term for us to support that kind of infrastructure expansion. But it would look like kind of 10 Bcf cavern expansions at those salt-cavern facilities.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global.
Sunil Sibal:
So I wanted to start off -- a little bit big picture question. So it seems like you're executing pretty well on the guidance, the '24 and '25. So I was curious if your actual performance comes out to be above the top end of your guidance ranges? What's the best incremental use of the cash flows in the current environment, especially if this permitting constraints continue?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, that is a great question and one that gets a lot of debate both and this team and within the boardroom as well. And it's a very astute question because if you look at the math, that starts to build on us pretty quickly, we saw the outlook -- positive outlook change coming from S&P on our Credit Rating. And so that we think will meet the conditions for that here through the balance of the year. So only so much more value, I would argue to be added in that regard. But I would say, certainly, our dividend policy is one lever, share buybacks, another and acquisitions of bolt-on transactions that have continued to add a lot of value and ones that we're really excited about the way our teams have performed on taking these assets and extremely quickly extracting the synergies that we expect out of them.
And so we have been very purposeful about building the capabilities within the organization to be able to act quickly and decisively on those kind of bolt-on transactions. And so we'll keep our eyes on that. Certainly, we've seen -- so far, we've seen a lot of value that we can add by being the operator on those kind of assets to make them immediately accretive transactions. And so we'll sort of keep our eyes open for those kind of bolt-on, very tightly aligned with strategy acquisitions as well.
Sunil Sibal:
And then in the Northeast, it seems like MVPs really start up pretty soon. And I was kind of curious in the current gas price environment, how do you think that impacts the producer reactions and then what kind of operating leverage you have in your systems to kind of benefit from that in the near term?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. I think right now, as we sit here today. The power gen loads will be pretty strong this summer if the weather predictions that are out there are accurate right now. I think we'll see some pretty strong pools and that pipe and those gas supplies serve that will be capable of responding to that. And that's probably the extent of what we would see here in the immediate term for that, as our expansions that we're working on like the Southeast supply and expansion, system come on in the years ahead, that will start to take full advantage of those incremental supplies. And we'll see areas where we gather the volumes upstream on that benefit from that. But importantly, our ability to expand Transco is a lot lower cost and a lot higher margin for us if we have supply coming in there at 165.
And so that's a huge positive for us to have high-pressure supplies coming into our system right there at 165. And so we'll see. I'm fairly confident we'll see some fairly significant additional expansions from 165 and take advantage of that on the Transco system.
Operator:
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much. We're very excited to deliver another record at the company and not just for the quarter that it produced in terms of the present a lot of people are talking about what they're going to do in the future. We continue to deliver in the present. But we also have a very strong future ahead of us and are extremely well positioned for not just the next couple of years, but for the next decades, as we were contracting for these major expansions on our system. So very excited to see a strategy that we've stuck with for years now really coming home and all the benefits that we thought natural gas had to offer the market start to be realized by others and putting a lot of demand on our infrastructure. So very excited to see this turn here in the quarter and very thankful for all the extraordinary efforts of the employees and the leadership of this company and the management team that I get to work with for continuing to deliver such great results. So thanks for joining us today.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to The Williams Third Quarter Earnings 2023 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode and please be advised that this call is being recorded. After the speakers’ prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Now at this time, I’ll turn things over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Bo, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we’ve released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you will find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
All right. Well, thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. As our first slide here shows Williams delivered another quarter of impressive accomplishments and starting out with our operational execution. So first of all, our project execution team completed the first half of Transco’s Regional Energy Access project, well ahead of schedule and our commercial and government affairs teams followed-up with the contracting and FERC authorization needed to place this in service and beginning full rate revenues for the initial capacity here in late October, so great efforts by our teams there and great results in a very difficult area. We expect the total project to be online in the fourth quarter of next year with the capacity to move approximately 830 million cubic feet a day of natural gas from the Northeast part of the Marcellus into the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland markets. We also completed several other expansion projects including a fully contracted gas transmission line that enables our newly acquired NorTex storage system to directly serve new gas-fired generation markets in that area. And in our West Gathering segment, we completed a large expansion of our South Mansfield gathering system in the Haynesville for GeoSouthern, which proud to say was the nation’s fastest growing gas producer last year. And in the Northeast, we completed the first expansion of many to come on our Cardinal gathering system for Encino’s rich gas drilling operations in the Utica condensate window. But the really big news this quarter comes in the new projects column. We recently signed precedent agreements of over 1.4 Bcf a day for the Southeast Supply Enhancement project, which provides takeaway capacity from Station 160 – from our Transco Station 165 to the fast growing Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets. And based on the open season results, we have even more demand to be met in the future that would result likely in a follow on project. So we are proceeding into the permitting process for this initial project due to the urgent demands to be met for this first group of customers. So in terms of impact, this will be the largest addition of EBITDA ever for a Williams pipeline extension yes, even more than our Atlantic Sunrise project and in fact, significantly more than the entire EBITDA generated from our Northwest Pipeline system. And I’ll remind you that these are 20-year contracts from the time the project starts up, which would be at least through 2047. And we recently signed anchor shipper precedent agreements for a Uinta Basin expansion on our MountainWest system. We continue to be very pleased with the successful integration of the MountainWest assets into our operations and the opportunities we see to execute on more profitable growth with this asset than we had originally planned on. In fact, this is the second piece of substantial business that we have signed up just this year on the MountainWest Pipelines, and neither of which of these expansions, neither of these were in our pro forma for this acquisition. So really pleased with the team from MountainWest Pipeline and the leadership we have working to grow that business, but very pleasantly surprised with that acquisition today. Moving across the slide, we are acting on opportunities that we believe will further high grade our portfolio of assets. First of all, Williams recently sold its our Bayou Ethane Pipeline system for $348 million in cash. And this represented a last 12-month multiple of over 14 times our adjusted EBITDA. The proceeds from this asset sell along with expected proceeds from a recent legal judgment will help fund an important strengthening of our hand in the DJ Basin with the following transactions. First, the acquisition of Cureton Front Range LLC, whose assets include gas gathering pipelines and two processing plants to serve producers across 225,000 dedicated acres that are just to the north of our existing KKR system. And second, the purchase of KKR is 50% ownership interest in the Rocky Mountain Midstream, which results in us now owning 100% of that. So KKR was our partner in Rocky Mountain Midstream. They’ve been a great partner there, but it was coming time via those agreements to exercise that. So we’re really pleased to have had the relationship we had with KKR and a great partner there. But this is really an exciting expansion of our business out there that will allow us to deliver volume into our downstream assets and including taking existing gas supplies and feeding them into our Rocky Mountain Midstream, so really excited about that. These acquisitions have a combined value of $1.27 billion, and this represents a blended multiple of approximately 7 times the 2024 adjusted EBITDA. So the synergies here are very tangible to us. Again, because we can just take these existing gas volumes, feeding them to our processing, and then enjoy the downstream NGL – the coupon clipping on the downstream NGL transportation, fractionation and storage. These are – the transactions are expected to close by the end of 2023, making Williams the third largest gather in the DJ Basin and progressing us towards the company’s strategy of maintaining top positions in the basins we serve. So, just a few other items to hit on this quarter. We finally are taking over operatorship of the Blue Racer gathering and processing system in West Virginia and Ohio later this year. This is important due to our ability to significantly lower cost and more easily capture synergies between this and our other operations in the area. And lastly, we’re continuing to advance our efforts to commercialize clean hydrogen through our support of two clean hydrogen hubs that were announced by the Department of Energy last month, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Appalachian region. We’re looking forward to leveraging our operating expertise and our right of ways into the emerging hydrogen space. Looking at some of our financial highlights from the quarter. John will obviously get into more details here in a minute, but overall, we’ve delivered another quarter of strong financial performance even in the face of dramatically lower gas prices as compared to the third quarter of 2022. Year-to-date, our adjusted EBITDA is up 9%, our adjusted EPS is up 11%, and gathering volumes are up 6%, versus the first nine months of 2022. And we expect the strong performance to continue, providing us with the confidence to raise our 2023 guidance this quarter up by $100 million to $6.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA. And we are tracking in line with our 5% to 7% adjusted EBITDA annual growth rate and this quarter marks the 34th first quarter of meeting or beating the adjusted EBITDA consensus and the fifth time we have raised guidance during the same period and I’ll also point out that we haven’t got there by lowering our guidance. In fact, we have not lowered our guidance during this entire period, and that includes through the pandemic. So in summary, our strict adherence to our strategy, our commitment to an improving return on capital employed and extraordinary execution by our team, all have continued to deliver predictable growth through a variety of commodity cycles. Importantly, this discipline also has Williams position to capture significant future growth and return this value to our shareholders. And with that, I’m going to turn things over to John to walk us through the financial metrics of the quarter.
John Porter:
All right. Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 4 with the summary of our year-over-year financial performance. It was a strong performance by our base business, which we define as excluding marketing and our upstream joint ventures. That base business increase was 6% over the prior year third quarter. As we’ll discuss in a moment, last year’s third quarter saw very favorable commodity prices for our marketing and upstream joint ventures, which did make for a tougher year-over-year comparison in total, but we did still grow total adjusted EBITDA, as well as that 6% increase for our base business. Year-to-date, our total adjusted EBITDA is now up 9%, driven by the growth of our core infrastructure businesses, which continue to perform very well even as natural gas prices decreased 63% for the first nine months of 2023 versus the first nine months of 2022, once again demonstrating the resiliency and strength of our natural gas focused strategy, assets and operational capabilities. So for third quarter, adjusted EPS flipped a little bit from that very strong 2022 number, but you can see, it's still up 11% year-to-date, continuing the strong growth we've had in EPS over the last many years. Available funds from operations was generally flat with last year's strong cash flow and you see our third quarter dividend coverage based on AFFO was a very strong 2.26 times on a dividend that grew 5.3%. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with debt to adjusted EBITDA now reaching 3.45 times versus last year's 3.68 times. On CapEx, you see an increase primarily reflecting the progress we're making on some of our key growth projects, including Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway. So based on the continued strong financial performance of the business, we now feel confident raising our consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, shifting the midpoint up $100 million from $6.6 billion to now $6.7 billion. In a moment, I'll provide a little color on our expectations for the remainder of the year and a few thoughts regarding the outlook beyond 2023. So let's turn to the next slide and take a little closer look at the third quarter results. We see a 1% overall increase, but a strong 6% increase in our base business EBITDA over the prior year, even as average natural gas prices for the third quarter decreased 68%. Now even for the base business, excluding marketing and our upstream joint ventures, that dramatic decrease in natural gas prices had a significant impact on our revenues. In fact, we saw about $70 million of lower natural gas price based gathering rates at certain of our franchises in the West and Northeast Gathering & Processing segments. Last year, saw those rates significantly lift from the floor values they had been at for many years, and in 2023, we've seen them return back to their floor values. Looking now at our core business performance, our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business improved $83 million, or 12%, including about a $47 million contribution from our MountainWest Pipelines and NorTex acquisitions, but we did see other increases in our transmission and deepwater businesses as well. Our Northeast gathering and processing business performed well with a $21 million or 5% increase, including a 4% overall increase in volumes versus last year. This 4% volume growth happened even though we saw much lower shoulder season natural gas pricing in 2023 versus 2022. And as we expected, that particularly impacted our dry gas systems, including some significant shut in volumes in Northeast Pennsylvania. However, as we've talked about before, when low natural gas prices weigh on dry gas production, we tend to see a shift to our liquids rich systems where higher margins tend to compensate for lower volumes. And that's what we see in third quarter this year, with about a 22% increase in processing plant volumes fed by those liquids rich systems, with related increases in NGL production, volumes and associated fractionation and transportation revenues as well. So shifting now to the West, which decreased $22 million or 7%, where the unfavorable impact of those lower natural gas price based rates fueled by last year's much higher natural gas prices overcame what was strong volume growth in the Haynesville. And then you see the $22 million decrease in the gas and NGL marketing business. Last year's third quarter saw much more favorable conditions for the gas marketing business with stronger natural gas price volatility in particular. Our upstream joint venture operations that are included in our other segment were down about $52 million versus last year, that includes the Haynesville upstream EBITDA, which was down about $36 million despite higher production, but due to much lower net realized prices and a lower working interest percentage on new wells beginning in January 2023. The Wamsutter upstream EBITDA was down about $16 million, where increases in gas and oil production significantly offset much lower net realized prices versus last year. So again, the third quarter continued our strong base business performance in 2023 with 6% growth and EBITDA driven by core infrastructure business performance in spite of natural gas prices that were 68% lower than third quarter of 2022. Let's turn the page and touch on the year-to-date comparison. Year-to-date, we've seen a 9% increase over 2022, even as average natural gas prices year-to-date fell 63% versus last year. And walking now from last year's $4.6 billion to this year's $5.1 billion and looking at our core business performance, Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business improved $210 million or 10% really on similar themes as our third quarter, namely the impacts of the MountainWest Pipelines and NorTex acquisitions, and still seeing other increases in our transmission and deepwater revenues as well. Our Northeast G&P business has performed very well with $138 million or 10% increase driven by a $217 million increase in their service revenues. And this revenue increase was really fueled by a 6% increase in total volumes focused in our liquids rich areas where we tend to have higher per unit margins than our dry gas areas. And in the appendix, you'll find a slide that compares our 6% volume growth to the overall basin growth of just over 2%. Shifting now to the West, which increased $20 million or 2%, benefiting from positive hedge results and strong Haynesville volume growth, including the Trace acquisition in the Haynesville, but the West was significantly unfavorably impacted by those lower natural gas price based gathering rates and also lower NGL margins. And then you see the $122 million increase in our gas and NGL marketing business, as you'll recall, really caused by the very strong first quarter start to the year for the gas marketing business. Our upstream joint venture operations included in our other segment were down $92 million versus last year. The Haynesville upstream EBITDA was down about $18 million, where the benefits of our 175% increase in net production volumes were more than offset by dramatically lower net realized natural gas prices. The Wamsutter upstream EBITDA was down $74 million due to the combined effects of the historically difficult winter weather we saw in Wyoming this year on production volumes as well as lower net realized prices. So, again, a continuation to the strong start to 2023 with 9% growth in EBITDA driven by core infrastructure business performance with strength from our marketing business that dramatically overcame weaker than expected results from the upstream joint ventures. As I mentioned earlier, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance to $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion with $100 million shift upward in the midpoint. This increase comes thanks to the steady performance of our base business, even after a historic decline in natural gas prices that did lead to some recent shut-ins and also after that historically difficult winter that continued to have unfavorable impacts through April of this year. And this 2023 guidance raise comes after two consecutive years of record breaking adjusted EBITDA growth in 2021 and 2022. In the appendix, you'll see other positive shifts in our financial guidance metrics that are generally aligned with the higher EBITDA guidance. And from a leverage perspective, we finished the year, not knowing the exact timing of when we'll receive payment of the $602 million judgment awarded to us from energy transfer in the recent Delaware Supreme Court decision, as well as the exact timing of the close date of the DJ transactions that we announced yesterday. Our expected payment in the energy transfer matter, net of legal fees will be in excess of $530 million and is still growing every day for interest charges as well. Considering all of these moving parts, we still believe we'll end up close to our original 2023 leverage guidance of 3.65 times, even though that guidance was issued before consideration of the MountainWest pipeline and DJ transactions and about $130 million of share buybacks that we've done this year as well. So, in summary, we are finishing 2023 with a guidance raise that builds on a strong multiyear trend of outperformance and we're setting our sights on continued growth in 2024 before another big growth step up in 2025. And with that, I'll turn it back to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, John. So just a few closing remarks before we turn it over to your questions. First, I'll start by reiterating our belief that Williams remains a compelling investment opportunity. We are the most natural gas centric large scale midstream company around today and the tightly integrated nature of our business is unique. Second, our combination of proven resilience, a five-year EPS CAGR of 23%, steadily growing two times covered dividend, a strong balance sheet and high visibility to growth is unique amongst the S&P 500 and unique within our sector. Our natural gas focused strategy has allowed us to produce a ten-year track record of growing adjusted EBITDA through a record – through a large number of commodity and economic cycles. And it is continuing to deliver significant growth in the current environment. And the signals coming from the market show that it is going to continue to deliver substantial growth well into the future. Shoring up our nations and the World's Energy Foundation with natural gas is going to happen whether the opposition wants it to or not, because we are running out of time and real world options to meet the growing need for energy while reducing emissions. Natural gas is the most effective non-subsidized way of reducing emissions and it has become the practical alternative. Ramping up the production of natural gas has allowed the U.S. to meet our evolving domestic needs as well as provide energy security and support to our global allies. It stands unmatched as the most affordable and reliable source of energy and has been the most effective tool to date at reducing emissions. At Williams, we are committed to a clean energy future that focuses on driving down emissions while protecting affordability and reliability. The drive for electrification is on and dispatchable power capable of keeping up with the large number of government incentive electrical loads like carbon capture, hydrogen production and data centers is going to be largely served by natural gas. This includes scaling up renewable sources to reduce carbon, while backing up those sources with the flexibility, scale and reliability of natural gas. So we are here for the long haul and are committed to leveraging our large scale natural gas infrastructure network for the benefit of generations and our shareholders for generations to come. And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Armstrong. [Operator Instructions] We'll go first this morning to Spiro Dounis at Citi.
Spiro Dounis:
Thanks, operator. Good morning team. Maybe to start with Southeast supply enhancement. Alan, you mentioned that being the largest EBITDA contribution I think you said we've ever seen, which at least for us was maybe something we didn't appreciate. So curious if you maybe just provide a sense of how you think about the capital costs, maybe even the returns around the two phases of that project. And also if you could maybe just talk about some of the physical capacity at 165 today to handle volumes when MVP comes online. I know it's something you've addressed in the past, but still seems like some level of confusion there.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Hey, Spiro. Thank you. Good morning and thanks for the great question. First of all, I want to clarify one thing, because it might have got confused a little bit in the commentary. When we talk about this potentially delivering another phase of expansion there, the EBITDA that I'm talking about and the scale of the EBITDA is on this initial phase. So we're not counting on a second phase to grow that EBITDA to that kind of scale, just to be clear. So that EBITDA that I mentioned, being larger – being the largest and being larger than our entire Northwest Pipeline system is on the initial 1.4 Bcf/d for clarity on that topic. In terms of returns, we're not going to put that number out there right now, but I can tell you, it's one of the most attractive returns we've ever seen for any pipeline expansion of scale. And we're really excited that capacity is precious, coming out of there. And just to remind you on the physical capacities that we have out of there, the total physical capacity out of there is 5.7 Bcf/d, 2.5 to the north, 2.5 to the south, and 700 million a day on the Virginia lateral. So that's the existing capacity that we have out of there, physical capacity that we have from 165 today. Obviously, there's a lot of demand for that and capacity, and so it's not like it's just sitting there available for somebody to come in and buy. And that's obviously why we're able to put together such an attractive project here. Utilizing – by the way, utilizing our existing right away and obviously structuring that in a way that will be provide the least points of resistance from a permitting standpoint for expansion south on that. So actually not a terribly complicated project. Easy for me to say that I don't have the responsibility for getting that done directly, but it is on our existing right away and avoids a lot of the typical area wetland problems that we get into and tend to snag the permitting process. So, great job by the team on working with our big customers out there of meeting their very urgent needs on this and providing a very attractive project. So couldn't be prouder of the team and the way they've worked through this.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. Helpful color and appreciate the clarification on the EBIT contribution for that first phase. Second question, maybe just turning to these two DJ Basin acquisitions, sounds like downstream benefits also drove part of the decision to expand there. So two questions on that front. One, does that 7x blended multiple impute any downstream benefits or is that sort of standalone for the assets? And then two, how should we think about the Cureton NGL volumes coming onto the downstream system? Is that something that happens immediately or do we need to wait for contracts to roll off.
Alan Armstrong:
Spiro, I'm going to have Chad Zamarin take that.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Thanks, Spiro. So that 7x multiple really reflects the standalone acquisition value and we do see significant opportunities to integrate those assets. It will take a little bit of time as there are some current commitments, but Cureton has more volume that they're gathering than they can process and deliver into downstream infrastructure. And Rocky Mountain Midstream has some excess capacity. So we're going to be able to consolidate those volumes and move a significant amount of incremental NGLs down our infrastructure. But there are some dedications over the next 12 months and beyond that will roll off and that will allow us to move those volumes fully over to our system, so you'll see that value increase over time.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. Helpful color. Thanks, Chad. Thanks everybody.
Chad Zamarin:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll go next now to Neel Mitra at Bank of America.
Neel Mitra:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First on a macro level, it seems like some of the Southern Utilities are worried about having gas supply, especially with a lot of the Haynesville moving north to south with projects like your LEGpipeline. Are you seeing interest from Southeast customers rather Southern Utilitiesto move Haynesville gas on Transco towards that area?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, it's a great question actually. And I think the market will figure that out. I think the way, for instance, our LEG project is structured, that will give people the opportunity as they come in there at [indiscernible] that'll give Haynesville producers the options of either moving down the traditional path on Transco towards 85 and into those markets or selling into LNG, whichever their preference is. And so that's the beauty of the Transco system is it gives people those options and the networking effect of our entire system gives people greater market options that they'll appreciate. So I'm not sure that people will have that a producer, for instance, will have to declare one way or the other on that as much as they'll be positioned to enjoy the benefits of either one of those markets. But we certainly are going to see, I think, competition for Haynesville supplies that have traditionally come in, a lot of that's come into Station 85 and that will certainly be in competition with 165 for a while. And that'll really dictate which way the volumes flow on there. But as those big LNG – and the LNG capacity growth is not all that hard to predict. The projects are out there and they're hard to sneak up on anybody just because they're so big and take so long for permitting. So that LNG market is becoming very evident and it will certainly take away supplies that a lot of the Transco customers have depended on coming in Station 85. And I do think to your point, I do think that's why we're seeing such an interest in picking up supplies off of Mountain Valley Pipeline. But I also tell you that largely just because the markets are growing in those areas is really what's driving that as they really start to run out of options for meeting power generation loads in those areas.
Michael Dunn:
And Alan, probably important to note this is not a near-term macro. This macro setup is going to be over the next decade and beyond as LNG demand increases and power demand on the eastern side of the United States continues to change. There's going to continue to be a competition between utilities and LNG exporters for natural gas, and there is no better asset set up to benefit from that and provide the supplies that are needed than our footprint in the Transco system.
Neel Mitra:
Great. And then my follow up, your Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway Project, I think it’s roughly $364 million a day in 2025. And it seems like crossing the border between Texas and Louisiana is actually harder than we initially expected. What are the opportunities for you to be able to move Transco volumes from South Texas, whether they’re sourced from the Permian or Eagle Ford up to the Louisiana Energy Corridor with compression or even looping in what are kind of the impediments towards scaling up the size of Transco to be able to do that?
Michael Dunn:
Hey Neel, it’s Michael. Thanks for the question. Yes, the TLEP project is just awaiting at 7C [ph] permit. So we would expect that to be imminent. So we’re excited to get that one off the ground. And that’s really the first opportunity we’ve had to really increase our capacity from the South Texas area into the LNG corridor order on the other side of Houston. I would just tell you, we’ve got a lot of great opportunities to continue to expand that pathway on Transco. We have a lot of looping capabilities through that area, additional compression that we can add and really move a significant amount of gas to either South Texas or the Katy area over to that Texas, Louisiana coast line where the LNG facilities are being contemplated for expansion. So really excited about those opportunities. We are talking to parties on both sides of that, whether it be a producer or a consumer of the gas on both sides of that opportunity. And the biggest impediment there is Houston, as you probably well know that the Transco pipeline system to reverse is just north of Houston there in that corridor, and we have one of the best quarters, we think, to expand from the west side of the Houston area over to the eastern LNG corridor.
Neel Mitra:
Got it. And just to follow up on that answer, what’s the FERC lag in terms of approving a loop. I know compression is much easier. I think that’s what you did with Texas to Louisiana pathway. But how much harder would it be to get the regulatory filing for a loop on Transco once you make that compression on that front?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. So right now, FERC has lowered their hurdle, I would say, for smaller projects like TLEP. So it was originally an environmental assessment and FERC basically came back and said, "No, we need any EIS and then they pivoted back and said, "No, this can go under an environmental assessment, which is a quicker process. You probably save six months to nine months on the environmental review typically between an EIS and an EA. And I would say any looping project of any magnitude is most likely going to take an environmental impact statement. And so that’s – whether it be a looping or a greenfield, it’s going to be an EIS, and that process is typically one and a half year to two years from filing to 7C approval. So I would just say that’s the kind of the time line you should be thinking about for any type of looping project. I would say the looping projects are less controversial when you start talking to the environmental organizations and landowners just because we’ve obviously been in the area for a long time. We have relationships built in those areas and landowners are certainly much more receptive to a looping project than they are a greenfield type pipeline. And certainly, the environmental impact is less as well. And so I think you do have a better opportunity to get approvals for looping project because they’re just less controversial and FERC is very interested in condemnation authority in the use of that these days and it gives us a great benefit when we’re looking at looping projects just like our [indiscernible] project, we built 36 miles of loop along that pipeline and did not have one condemnation with several hundred landowners and it’s a great testament to what the brownfield expansion is going to do for our company.
Neel Mitra:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go next now to Theresa Chen at Barclays.
Theresa Chen:
Good morning and thank you for taking my question. First, on the DJ acquisitions, if 7x is stand-alone, how low do you think you can bring that in multiple with the downstream synergies? And are there additional opportunity for and portfolio optimization going forward?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Thanks, Theresa. This is Chad. I won’t speak specifically, but we are typically looking for leveraging our footprint and our strategic positioning where we operate. We’ve been focused on bolt-on transactions that typically provide better than one or two turns of synergies and optimization. This is an integration that allows us to both increase gathering, processing, also we moved the NGLs down Overland Pass with our partnership with Targa, we can move the barrels all the way to Mont Belvieu, where we have interest fractionation. And so there’s a lot of opportunity to capture synergies along that value chain. So those are the kind of opportunities that we really look for that, provide very clear commercial and operational synergies. So that’s really a focus. As far as additional opportunities, I think the Blue Racer example is another great one. We’ve been focused on cleaning up inefficiencies within our business. The team has been very successful, both within our commercial core dev and operating teams in finding opportunities to further take efficiency out of the business. And that’s actually the last of the non-operated joint ventures that we participate in. So we’ve made great progress and again, taking that kind of inefficient structure out of the business. And we’ll continue to look for opportunities to do that. And with the scale and geographic footprint like ours, these low-risk, high-value bolt-ons, I think, will continue to be opportunities.
Theresa Chen:
Got it. And thus far into fourth quarter, can you provide some color on the progress made to date on the marketing efforts, just given the seasonal tailwinds this winter?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I’d say it’s too early to really speculate the winner is just getting started. We’ve got – I mean, the great thing about the Sequent platform is it’s set up to be a very low risk platform, and we can sit and be opportunistic as weather events materialize. But at this point, we’re going to continue to remain cautious on kind of over-interpreting or trying to over predict the weather itself. And so we’re well set up well positioned for the winter, if we see dislocations. But remember that as that asset, that footprint is primarily structured for basis differentials and differentials in time and so we’ll continue to watch the weather play out. But right now, we feel pretty good how we’re set up.
Theresa Chen:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next now to Jean Ann Saulsbury at Bernstein.
Jean Ann Saulsbury:
Hi good morning. Congrats on the Southeast Supply Enhancement precedent agreements. I just had a couple of questions on that. Does the spin start when MVP goes in service, and therefore, kind of the clock. So the 4Q 2027, if basically MVP starts a lot later than expected, that would also push back?
Alan Armstrong:
No. Well, just to be clear, the agreements go – the clock starts on those agreements for 20 years when we place the expansion in service. And so that was the reference to 2047. I would say it’s pretty optimistic to think we would have that in service in 2027, certainly would be probably the latter part of that just timing standpoint. But that’s – obviously, we’ve set it up for permitting success, so we may be able to do that, but that was a reference to that. So it doesn’t – the timing doesn’t have any of those terms don’t have anything to do with Mountain Valley Pipeline. They are, many of those agreements are dependent on Mountain Valley Pipeline coming into service. But not under that timeline.
Jean Ann Saulsbury:
Got it. Yes, I think I meant more for you to have the project online. If Mountain Valley gets pushed, would your start date also kind of get pushed because you would wait to start working on it.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sorry, Jean. I’m sorry, I didn’t understand your question. Yes. I would just say if that didn’t get done, I think it’s very low probability that over between now and 2027 that it wouldn’t be placed in service, but that’s what you’re suggesting, then we would probably have – those markets are going to have to have supplies from somewhere. And so we would have to come up with another way of getting those supplies to them, which would be a bigger project.
Jean Ann Saulsbury:
Got it. That makes sense. And is it all going to be kind of the 1.4 Bcfd, and kind of all one day kind of shows up – not one day, but at one time? Or could it be sort of phased in gradually leading up to the final.
Alan Armstrong:
Right now, our plans would be for it to all come on at once.
Jean Ann Saulsbury:
Got it. And then another follow-up. I think most people believe that we’re entering a period of significantly more volatility in gas price both in regional spreads and in time spreads. Can you kind of just walk us through the specific part of Williams portfolio that would benefit from this over time versus this year, which wasn’t particularly volatile? I know that there’s sequence, obviously, in but also sort of market rate storage, the gas-linked gathering contracts that you referred to, et cetera?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sure. Chad, do you want to take that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I think you mentioned several of them. I think the fundamental base business benefits, I mean, at the end of the day, pipeline infrastructure is built to mitigate basis. I mean, so we like the setup certainly near term from a marketing, from a storage and optimization perspective. It’s obviously drives the need for our producers and our supply areas to be better connected to different markets. But ultimately, volatility and basis differentials are what drive value across our core infrastructure. And that’s why we think we’re set up so well to continue to grow our base business and layer in is kind of the cherry on top, layer in these other assets and capabilities that capture that volatility. But at the end of the day, our business is converting volatility in infrastructure, and that’s really what we’re focused on. And we think we’re really well set up to follow basis differentials and volatility and bring infrastructure solutions to help mitigate that long term.
Jean Ann Saulsbury:
Makes a lot of sense. Thank you.
Chad Zamarin:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go next now to Brian Reynolds at UBS.
Brian Reynolds:
Hi good morning everyone. Maybe to peak ahead to 2024, excluding today’s acquisitions. We have some tailwinds around full year Mountain West and some small expansions also by some hedging headwinds, it seems like, but kind of just curious if you can maybe just talk about the existing base business and whether there are any rising ties as it relates to volumes or kind of what Jean Ann alluded to some nat gas storage opportunities or margin uplift that could move the needle one way or the other next year as we think about just the 2024 versus 2023? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, first, I’ll take a high-level cut at that, and then John can provide some more detailed remarks on it. First of all, the base business is continuing to grow nicely. I think how much growth we see in the gathering business next year will be somewhat dependent on producers’ response. And obviously, their response will be somewhat dependent on both the prompt price as well as shape of the forward curve. And so a little bit of TBD, I would say, in terms of volume growth on the gathering systems and as that would affect our gathering revenues. I think on the transmission business, our opportunities there are acceleration of existing projects that we have out there. The team has been doing a great job like they did on REA of bringing that first phase in early. So I think the opportunities there as you – if you look at our projects, most of those come in, including the big deepwater business comes on towards the end – very end of 2024. So some acceleration of those projects would be where the opportunities would exist on those very tangible and identifiable growth projects that drive a very large increase in 2025. So I think it’s a little bit early right now, frankly, to be calling what we’ll see from the producer community in 2024, and that will probably drive that on the margin. But I’ll let John take the more specifics on that.
John Porter:
Not a lot really to add. I do think a really good reference for information about our growth in 2024 and really beyond is in Slide 18 in the appendix, you’re going to spot a number of projects, as Alan mentioned, that will contribute to 2024 based on what we know today, including several projects in the transmission and Deepwater Gulf of Mexico business as well as several gathering and processing expansions. You mentioned the full year of MountainWest Pipeline acquisition and now these DJ transactions that we’re discussing today, too, that will layer into 2024. And you also mentioned working against these increases, we will see the absence of some of the gathering and processing related hedges that we had in place in 2023. But again, that’s Slide 18 in the appendix, I think, really clearly shows the projects that will be leading to the growth of 2024 and obviously, the much more significant growth in 2025 and beyond. And as Alan mentioned, it kind of shows you the different projects that could potentially add to upside if we’re able to bring them in early.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. Thanks. Makes sense. Maybe as my follow-up, we’ve seen the market talk a lot about NGL and LNG opportunity sets over the next, call it, three years to five years with some downstream expansion opportunities. So I was kind of just curious, just given Williams strategic position on the transmission business, if you could just refresh us on your kind of $1 billion to $2 billion CapEx run rate or we could see some lumpy attractive projects ultimately move into the backlog and grow returns just given the thought process that we see 20 Bcf of natural gas demands coming over the next decade. Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Brian, thank you. We’re pretty careful to not put things in there until we’ve got pretty high level of optimism about those projects going forward in that backlog. And I would tell you, I would be frankly very surprised if we didn’t see some – a lot of those projects that are in our pipeline move forward, given the amount of demands and projects that are coming on and the way we’re positioned with our infrastructure to serve that. So to answer your question, I think it would be very unlikely that we wouldn’t see some additional projects come in to help serve a lot of these gas demand increases. And I say that from a few fronts. One, if you look at what the alternatives are for power generation, say, in the Northeast now, the answer for power generation up there was going to be offshore wind, that is looking very unlikely now within the decade that we’re looking at right now, and so some other answer is going to have to happen. Unfortunately, we’ve shut down the Indian Point Nuclear Facility, and there’s pressure to take down other facilities up there. And I just think that’s – people are going to have to get sober pretty quickly here on what the alternatives are up there. I think our customers on REA are going to wind up looking really, really smart for taking that capacity that they took because I think that’s going to be in precious demand. So in the Northeast, I think harsh reality is going to set in here before long. In the Mid-Atlantic, we saw great evidence of demand well beyond what this initial project that we’re building in the Mid-Atlantic States and into the Southeast. And then obviously, the LNG market continues to demand more and more infrastructure in that area that we’re well positioned to serve. So it would be pretty shocking to me if we didn’t see that – a lot of that backlog into 2025 and 2026 really turned into some pretty material projects up there.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. Super helpful. Hopefully some more returns like Southeast Supply. I’ll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We go next now to Jeremy Tonet at [indiscernible]. Jeremy, your line is open, if you do have a question at this time. Hearing no response. We’ll move next now to Tristan Richardson at Scotiabank.
Tristan Richardson:
Hey, good morning, guys. Alan, you noted in your comments, you’re surprised at the level of demand you’re seeing as you seek to commercialize healthy supply. I mean, suggesting that there could be other opportunities. Is this a dynamic where the scope of Southeast Supply could change over time? Or are you thinking of addressing this demand really with separate projects and thinking way down the road?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. It’s a great question, Tristan, and you picked up on an important point there. Our issue is that our customers, which are some of our best and biggest customers on Transco are their demands are very urgent. And for us to sit around and wait for – to finalize any more of the demand that was pending out there, really, it doesn’t serve those customers very well. And so we’re moving ahead with those customers that we’re ready to put binding contracts in place. And that – and we’re not – I would just say we’re going to try to protect that – the time line of that project. And that will be kind of first and foremost in our thinking as we move ahead on that. So could that expand a little bit where somebody else coming in under the wire before we do our pre-filing. Yes, but I’d say, we’re not going to get ourselves strong out there in a way that we can’t move ahead with this initial project because our customers have made it very clear how important it is that we get on with it. So that kind of hopefully gives you a little bit of idea of what we’re dealing with there. But I would say it’s obvious from the open season and from the additional requirements that are continuing to service. I’d be just like I said earlier; I would be very surprised if we didn’t see another project come out of this. It’s just – we’ve got to get on with it because the demands are so.
Tristan Richardson:
That’s great context. And then as we look out to 2024 and the acceleration of EBITDA growth into 2025, is there a thought about the appropriate pace of dividend growth relative to your 5% to 7% long-term EBITDA growth, particularly with the visibility you guys have over the next couple of years. And as we’re seeing the midstream space broadly return to a period of accelerated dividend growth?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, obviously, that’s a Board-level decision in terms of how we grow that dividend. I do think, as we’ve said all along, we do intend to continue to grow it in line earlier with our EBITDA and now with our AFFO just because we do have to make sure that we don’t ignore any tax liability that would start to affect that. And so that’s the reason for the switch from EBITDA to AFFO growth. But having said all that, I think the 5% to 7% is well within our wheelhouse and it certainly looks like that growth even as our EBITDA gets bigger, here for the next several years, at some point, the law of big numbers starts to overcome that. But for right now, I think the 5% to 7% growth rate is very achievable within our dividend growth rate.
Tristan Richardson:
Appreciate it, Alan. Thanks all.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go back next to Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan. Excuse me.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, can you hear me now?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Got you, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to start off, if I could, with regards to capital allocation. And just wondering, as you’ve talked about it in different points of the call, but specifically as it relates to higher rates out there, how that impacts, I guess, thoughts on return of capital hurdles for capital deployment, specifically thinking about the dividend rate now, price appreciation has increased the yield a bit. Just wondering how this all mixed together with higher rates today?
John Porter:
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. Thanks for the question. I mean I don’t think we really have any significant change to the returns-based approach that we’ve been discussing for capital allocation now for the last couple of years. We have seen a slight uptick in our borrowing costs, but we’re managing through that. I think very well. And of course, we’re seeing the returns on many of our projects as we’ve been discussing with that Southeast Supply enhancement being stronger than ever. So, I think the spread in our business between the returns on our invested capital and our cost of capital continues to be holding up very well, if not improving over time. I think as far as the capital allocation decision matrix that we’ve discussed in the past, as I know you’re familiar with, we are somewhat unique in terms of our ability to make fairly discretionary large investments into our regulated rate base and achieve regulated rates of return. We do have a rate case coming up starting next year or so, we’ll be revisiting our ROE on our Transco rate base. And – but again, we do have a somewhat discretionary and somewhat unlimited ability to invest into that regulated rate base and achieve that regulated rate of return. So that really does set the floor of our capital allocation decisions. And I think going forward, you’ll see us, as we have done in the past, just monitor what we see as the return on share buybacks up against the potential to continue to make additional investments in the regulated rate base. And if we see dislocations in the stock price based on what we – what the current yield is trading at and our view of the growth into the future, then we’ll quickly act to buy shares as we’ve done in the past.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And I would just add at a macro level there, Jeremy. The strange as it may seem, the higher interest rates are actually on a macro level, I think, pretty good for this business and a couple of reasons. One, given the structure of our gathering contracts and the inflation adjustment in those, which goes against the entire rate, not against just the operating cost side of that rate. So that really continues to push our operating margin up. I would tell you that we don’t plan on the inflation rate continuing as we look to our long-term model. But to the degree that occurs, it’s actually a net positive for us. But in addition to that, I think you’re seeing the impact of high interest rates come across the alternatives as we think about power generation and infrastructure to meet power generation demand. And in a simple term, a gas-fired generation facility has a huge advantage on the capital costs associated with it, but as a disadvantage on the fuel cost. And so the fixed capital element of power generation is very positive from a natural gas standpoint just because of the capital required on the front end is so much lower, but the savings are in the fuel. And so I think we’re in a very attractive environment right now for our business in our industry in general as interest rates have moved up. It’s just put more and more pressure on people’s need to have natural gas as a very real-world alternative to meet the very rapidly growing power generation demands that we’re seeing in the markets we serve.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Makes sense. I’ll leave it there. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go next now to Praneeth Satish at Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. I guess I’ll start with a high-level question, which is maybe touching on your prior remarks. Alan. But I guess, as you mentioned, there is pressure on offshore wind, even solar deployments under pressure under the higher rate environment. So I guess as you talk to your utility customers, have you observed any shift there in terms of their long-term perspectives on natural gas? And has there been any adjustments there in terms of their decarbonization time lines?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think for a number of reasons. I think even some of the shifts we’ve seen here in the mid-Atlantic states are the rapidly growing demand that they’re seeing from things like data centers and all kinds of incremental loads that they’re seeing, even industrial load from the fact that we have such low priced gas here in the U.S. is driving some of that demand. So yes, we’re seeing that mostly in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. I think the Northeast is yet to come. I think people have kind of been holding out for that. And I think there’s been plans to depend on that offshore wind and I think, as I mentioned earlier, I think the harsh reality is going to hit us there. So we’re – we very much see ourselves as a complement to renewables, and we are all for seeing that develop. But here as we sit in the Northeast to answer your question, we haven’t seen the shift or the capitulation perhaps you might describe it as in that market yet. But I would say we certainly are seeing a very sober mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets because they’ve been up against the – they’re seeing the demand growth in their markets, and they’ve got to have an answer for it.
Chad Zamarin:
And I think it’s important to remember the fundamentals of the eastern third of the United States, and there are less than 10% intermittent resources today. So there is – they’re just getting started in deploying alternatives like solar and wind. And if you look at forecast for PJM it’s, I think, widely understood that by 2040 and this is long term. By 2040, peak gas demand is going to double from where it is today. And so the utilities have recognized that, one, they need gas here and now and long term in order to achieve decarbonization goals are going to need even more.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. And then switching gears on Overland Pass. Do you see any disruption to volumes on the line after ONEOK expands Elk Creek if they decide to divert volumes, will that impact Bakken flows on Overland Pass? And then, I guess, if so, would you expect some of the NGLs picked up from the DJ assets? Could that potentially backfill any volume loss on OPPL?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. This is Micheal. I’ll take that one. Thanks for the question. Yes, I would suspect if and when ONEOK gets the El Creek expansion done, we’d see less Bakken flows kind of a just they’ve been diverting some of the flows into the OPPL asset. We’ve got space and OPPL today to bring in the DJ volumes. So that’s really not a constraint as we see it today. But certainly, opening up more space is not a bad thing on OPPL ultimately, if we have the need to bring in more DJ volume. But we certainly enjoyed the volume from the Bakken to ONEOK has brought to our partnership.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions this morning. Mr. Armstrong, I’d like to turn things back to you for any closing comments, sir.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you. Thank you all for joining us today. Really exciting to get to announce a lot of accomplishments in the quarter and a real, I think, very clear picture of the kind of growth that we are seeing emerge ahead of us. And so very excited for the current performance, but even more excited about the growth and the signs of even more growth that we’re seeing in – across our strategy right now. So thanks for joining us, and I look forward to speaking with you next time.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Armstrong. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the Williams Third Quarter Earnings 2023 Conference Call. Again, I’d like to thank you all so much for joining us and wish you all a great day. Goodbye.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Just a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. And now at this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations, ESG, and Investment Analysis. Please go ahead, sir.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Bo, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we’ve released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you will find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today another positive story to share with you this quarter, and you can see some of those highlighted here and called out on Slide 2. First of all, adjusted EBITDA up 8%, adjusted earnings per share up 5%, and our gathering volumes were up 6%. And certainly, while this growth and beat is impressive, our resiliency in the face of low commodity prices is even more impressive and gave us another opportunity to distinguish ourselves from the pack, which is largely post to declines this quarter. And our growth continues to compound despite these price swings in natural gas. This quarter was a perfect example where we saw an 8% EBITDA increase on the back of a very strong 14% increase for the same period last year. John will dive deeper into the numbers in a moment, but let me start out with a few highlights from the quarter. Our financial performance is our track record, but it is the day-to-day focus on execution by our teams that drives these results and really does set us apart. As an example, our teams have done a fantastic job of quickly integrating the MountainWest acquisition into our core business, and in fact, we’re pleased to announce that we’ve already secured binding precedent agreements to support a significant expansion on the newly acquired Overthrust Pipeline. This project was not even in our upside case for this investment, and the team has identified even more growth to come that is beyond our original expectations. Much of this growth is centered around coal to natural gas conversions in the western states. On Transco, we continue to advance our emission reduction program and recently completing – completed our first large scale compressor replacement project in Virginia, our backlog of high return pipeline expansion opportunities continues to progress driven by a large wave of incremental demand that continues to exceed our expectations. As evidence of this continued wave of increasing demand, we recently concluded a non-binding open season to advance another large scale Transco project that will provide much needed capacity to serve our customers South of Station 165 in Virginia. Our customers recent – customers requested capacity that has been well in excess of the 800,000 dekatherms per day that we offered. Importantly, the minimum required term for this service offering was 20 years. This underscores our belief in the durable and fast growing demand for capacity and the market’s confidence in our ability to deliver this capacity with the lowest environmental impact. Following the approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. We’re now working to find a way to serve as much of our customers’ needs as possible and hope to have an update on this exciting project soon. Moving on to financial performance, as I stated earlier, despite a weakened natural gas price environment, our financial results not only grew against a difficult comp in a difficult environment, but this quarter marked the 30th consecutive earnings print that either met or exceeded consensus estimates. Within our legacy based business in the Northeast, we produced record EBITDA and record gathering volumes delivering growth that far outpaced the total production across Marcellus. Our strategy to focus on connecting our producing customers to the best markets with the most reliable service available has grown this business to the point it is nearing $2 billion per year of EBITDA. The completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, our Regional Energy Access project and continued growth of gas-fired generation in the local market will continue to provide market and volume growth well into the future. In the West, we also achieve record gathering volumes once again showing that our diverse geographic position is built to weather commodity price swings. In our transmission in Gulf of Mexico segment, we are enjoying the beginnings of a long runway of growth in the deepwater gearing up for a long string of expansions on Transco and enjoying better than expected growth in our MountainWest acquisition, which speaks to our successful integration. Importantly, the strength of our base business more than offset weaker E&P earnings and expected low seasonal cash flows from our marketing business. The quarter’s results continue to prove out the inherent stability and stubborn growth of our business. However, when we see the market fail to appreciate our ability to deliver in most price environments, we will continue to execute on our authorized repurchase program much like we did during the second quarter. And finally, a few notes on our sustainability efforts. Last week, we issued our 2022 sustainability report and completed our annual CDP Climate Questionnaire. These are both important markers that detail our progress on key issues like environmental stewardship, community sport, and workforce development. To us, sustainability means running our business in a way that will create value for the perpetual shareholder. So we’re proud to have also be providing our shareholders with industry-leading returns on invested capital, and we expect our shareholders to further benefit from enhanced capital returns as we execute on our large growth backlog, which among others include seven out of nine major pipeline projects that are coming online in the fourth quarter of 2024 and that will be stacked on top of a solid foundation of a sustainable based business. And with that, I’m going to turn things over to John to walk us through the financial metrics of the quarter. John?
John Porter:
Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 3 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance, beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw another strong quarterly increase of 8% over the prior year, and this happens to coincide with an 8.6% CAGR over the last five years for this same measure. And this strong performance included a new record for gathering volumes, which increase 6%. Year-to-date, our adjusted EBITDA is now up 13% driven by the growth of our core infrastructure businesses, which continue to perform very well, even as natural gas price decreased 61% for the first half of 2023 versus the first half of 2022, once again, demonstrating the resiliency and strength of our natural gas focused strategy, our assets, and our operational capabilities. For second quarter, our adjusted EPS increased 5% for the quarter, continuing the strong growth we’ve had in EPS over the last many years with our year-to-date EPS now up 23%. Available funds from operations AFFO growth for second quarter was in line with adjusted EBITDA and you see our second quarter dividend coverage based on AFFO was a very strong 2.23 times growing about 2% despite growing our dividend by 5.3%. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with debt to adjusted EBITDA now reaching 3.5 times versus last year’s 3.82 times and that’s even after closing the Trace, NorTex and MountainWest acquisitions and also repurchasing $139 million worth of shares since last year. On CapEx, you see an increase primarily reflecting the progress we’re making on some of our key growth projects, including Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway. For the full year, there’s no change to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion or any of our other guidance metrics. But in a moment, I’ll provide a little color on our expectations for the remainder of the year versus the performance we’ve seen thus far in 2023. So let’s turn to the next slide and take a little closer look at the second quarter results. A strong 8% increase in EBITDA over prior year even as average natural gas prices for the second quarter decreased 71% walking now from last year’s roughly $1.5 billion to this year’s $1.6 billion, we start with our Upstream joint venture operations that are included in our other segment, which were down $43 million versus last year. Our Haynesville Upstream EBITDA was down about $14 million despite substantially higher production due to much lower net realized prices and a lower working interest percentage on new wells beginning in January of 2023. Our Wamsutter upstream EBITDA was down $29 million due primarily to lower realized prices, but production also continued to be impacted throughout April from the historically difficult Wyoming winter weather we saw in the first quarter. Shifting now to our core business performance, our transmission in Gulf of Mexico business improved $96 million or 15%, including about a $52 million contribution from our MountainWest Pipeline and NorTex acquisitions, but with other increases in our transmission and deepwater revenues as well. Our Northeast G&P business performed extremely well with a $65 million or 14% increase, driven by an $81 million increase in service revenues. And we did have a one-time $14 million favorable gathering revenue catch up adjustment in that second quarter increase in service revenue. But this revenue increase was really fueled by a 6% increase in total volumes in the Northeast. Shifting now to the west, which increased to $16 million or 5%, benefiting from continued strong volume growth in the Haynesville and positive hedge results that partially offset the impact of lower commodity base rates. And then you see the $22 million decrease in our Gas and NGL Marketing business and the majority of this decline was actually related to lower NGL marketing results from inventory valuation changes where we had to gain on NGL inventories last year at a loss this year. So again, the second quarter continued our strong start to 2023 with 8% growth in EBITDA driven by core infrastructure business performance in spite of natural gas prices that were 71% lower than second quarter of 2022. So let’s turn the page and touch on the year-to-date comparison. Year-to-date, we’ve seen a 13% increase over 2022, walking now from last year’s $3 billion to this year’s $3.4 billion, we start with the upstream joint venture operations included in our other segment, which were down $39 million versus last year. Now, year-to-date, Haynesville is up nicely on very strong volume growth that has been significantly offset by lower realized prices. However, the overall Haynesville increase was offset by lower Wamsutter results due primarily to the historically difficult winter weather we saw in Wyoming this year. Shifting now to our core business performance, transmission in Gulf of Mexico business improved $127 million or 9% that’s really similar themes as our second quarter, namely the impacts of the MountainWest Pipeline and NorTex acquisitions, however, we have seen other significant increases in our transmission and deepwater revenues as well. Our Northeast G&P business has performed very well with $117 million or 13% increase driven by $154 million increase in service revenue. This revenue increase was fueled by a 7% increase in total volumes focused in our liquids rich areas where we tend to have higher per unit margin than our dry gas areas. And in the appendix, you’ll find a slide that compares our 7% volume growth to the overall basin growth of just under 2%. Shifting now to the West, which increased $42 million or 8%, benefiting from positive hedge results and the Trace acquisition, but the West was significantly unfavorably impacted by the severe Wyoming weather and January processing economics at our Opal Wyoming processing plant. And then you see the $144 million increase in our Gas and NGL Marketing business caused by the strong first quarter that we had at the start of the year. So again, a continuation to the strong start to 2023 with 13% growth in EBITDA, driven by core infrastructure business performance with strength from our marketing business that dramatically overcame weaker than expected results from the upstream joint ventures. So as I mentioned earlier, there’s no change to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion or any of our other guidance metrics. We’ve definitely had a strong start to the year with $3.4 billion of EBITDA through the first half of the year. And thanks to the performance of our base business we have clear visibility to hitting at least the mid-point of our guidance even after a historic decline in natural gas prices and a historically difficult winter that continue to have impacts through April. So you may be wondering, why we aren’t raising our guidance on the back of such a strong start to the year and a bright future ahead. First, I will remind you that our guidance does include a range of $200 million above our midpoint. And second, while we usually experience stronger third and fourth quarters than second quarter, the third quarter does occasionally see hurricane outages for our deepwater business. Finally, we could also still see downward shifts in natural gas prices for the balance of the year that could unfavorably impact our upstream joint ventures in particular. While we are not suggesting, there is a high likelihood of realizing these impacts, we do need to be prepared to overcome these scenarios. Therefore, it is too early to raise our full year guidance. But once again, we are confident in the continued performance of our base infrastructure businesses, allowing us to once again meet or exceed the midpoint of our guidance range. We’re setting our sites on continued growth in 2024 before another big growth step in 2025. And with that, I’ll turn it back to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Thanks, John. Just a few closing remarks before we open it up for your questions here. First, I’ll start by reiterating our belief that Williams remains a compelling investment opportunity. We are the most natural gas centric large scale midstream company around today and the integrated nature of our business from our best-in-class long haul pipes to our formidable gathering assets, which are complimented by our Sequent platform that delivers upside to our base business is unique and we have a track record to prove it. Second, our combination of proven resilience, five year EPS CAGR of 23%, industry leading coverage on our steadily growing dividend, a strong balance sheet and high visibility to growth we think is unique amongst the S&P 500 and unique within our sector. Let me emphasize that our natural gas focused strategy has allowed us to produce a 10-year track record of growing adjusted EBITDA through a number of commodity and economic cycles. And it is continuing to deliver significant growth in the current environment. And we’re now celebrating 7.5 years of delivering inline or better quarterly results. That is especially impressive when you consider the sectors ups and downs over this period. And the fundamentals are setting up stronger than ever for this long-term predictable growth to continue. And finally, as we think about our long-term strategy, we see that U.S. natural gas infrastructure is key to meeting both today’s energy demand as well as projected growth of electrification and renewables build out in the future. Simply put, you cannot implement and accelerate wind, solar and large scale electrification without having natural gas as a reliable complimentary partner to these big system changes. In fact, despite continued growth in solar and wind capacity, the country saw record natural gas power demand in July, reaching as high as 53 Bcf per day last week to meet summer power loads. This tops the previous record set last July by 6%, again, compounding growth on top of compounding growth. And so if we truly do want to meet our country’s growing power demand for things like data centers and EVs and accelerate wind and solar power generation, we must continue increasing natural gas infrastructure capacity. This fact has become evident to both the majority of our legislators and the Biden administration as they came out with unprecedented support for Mountain Valley Pipeline’s completion. Williams is here for the long haul and we are committed to leveraging our large scale natural gas infrastructure network for the benefit of generations to come. And with that, I’ll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Armstrong. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question this morning from Spiro Dounis at Citi.
Spiro Dounis:
Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. First question, maybe start with gas macro. Looks like, we’re maybe approaching a trough here and some of the producer activity. So just curious to get your all’s view on what your producer customers are seeing and doing and really just how you’re thinking about the volume and price trajectory from here as we head into 2024 and really wait for LNG volumes to pick up a lot of the slack.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Spiro, well, certainly, I wouldn’t say, there’s one answer to that question, but maybe I’ll try to summarize it a little bit. I think the majority of producers see a pretty bright future for demand right now. And as a result of that, they’re making sure that they’re not letting their systems fall into decline in a way that’d be hard to recover from. So I would say, they are much like a cat kind of poised for demand growth in the future, but really watching cost and trimming out cost where they can and kind of proving up their capabilities in certain areas. So I would say, it feels to me like the producers are trying to maintain level volumes as much as possible, but being poised for future demand growth, that’s pretty evident down the road.
Spiro Dounis:
Yes. It’s helpful. Second question is maybe moving to leverage as you guys pointed out, you’re down to about 3.5 times now this quarter, so already below your target on the year. So just curious how you’re thinking about utilizing this excess balancing capacity. Is that the plan or really maybe even thinking about operating at these lower levels?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, I think we really enjoy the flexibility that we have right now and we’ve been pretty clear about capital allocation. It’s nice to have a – such a large pool of ability to invest in our rate base at some pretty decent returns, and I think probably even some higher returns once we get through the next rate case, given the inflation and the cost of debt that’s gone up, that will drive us to be able to earn even an higher return in our rate base. So that’s really nice to have that pool of capital to be able to invest in. And that really kind of sits at the bottom of our stack of capital allocation, but team’s doing a great job of deploying that. As I mentioned, we completed our Station 180, which is a very large compressor station in [indiscernible] and the team brought that in a little bit ahead of schedule, and Michael and I actually got to go up there a few weeks ago and see that great effort by the team of modernizing our facilities there. And so anyway, I would just say to answer your question more directly, we have places to place capital for nice return like that and I think we’ll continue to do that, but we certainly enjoy the flexibility that we have at this level to be able to place capital towards those kinds of opportunities.
Spiro Dounis:
Great. I’ll leave it there. Thanks for the time guys.
Operator:
Thank you. We go next down to Jeremy Tonet at JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to start off with Appalachia, if I could Northeast G&P quite a good quarter there, recognize there’s a little bit of timing with the revenue catch up there. But just wondering if you could talk a bit more about what’s a normalized EBITDA level in the Northeast G&P right now. And are you seeing kind of a shift in production wet versus dry and is that impacting margins, just trying to get a bit of color for what the trajectory is here?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I definitely think we saw producers focusing, where they have it available. We saw producers focusing on wet where there are producers that have that ability to shift. But while at the same time, I think keeping themselves poised for markets to open up. And so I would say, that’s kind of what we’ve seen. In terms of normalized EBITDA, I think the first two quarters are a pretty good sign of that. I think anytime you can just average that out over a couple of quarters, I think that’s a pretty good sign of a normalized number. But I do think as markets open up through both MountainWest and Regional Energy Access and continued industrial and power generation demand in the local markets, I think we’re going to see that PJM, certainly found itself very short power lasts year or – and during the winter time as well. And I think we’re going to continue to see people build out power generation to take advantage of that. So I’m pretty encouraged, frankly, about in terms of the market outlook over the next couple of years for the Northeast. I do think that we’ll see the Northeast have an opportunity to take back some of the market share across the U.S. as a result of some of these markets opening up.
Jeremy Tonet:
That’s very helpful. And just to clarify, when you say new markets opening up, is this regional energy that kind of prime in the [indiscernible] or MVP or others?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, there’s really three distinct issues there. Mountain Valley Pipeline certainly, and it’ll be competing. There’s been some confusion out there. I think in the market, we have plenty of capacity to pull all that MountainWest can deliver. It’s just a question of how it’s going to compete with Haynesville gas coming in at Station 85 on the system. And so there – but there’s – it’s just going to be a question of producers competing for those markets. But I will say that market in particularly at south of Station 165, as was demonstrated by a recent open season is going to continue to grow pretty rapidly. And last winter got caught in a very short situation on natural gas. And so we’re going to continue to see the markets in the Carolinas there and Virginia and the Southeast continue to expand. Mountain Valley Pipeline’s going to be that connection. In addition to that Regional Energy Access is also going to provide new market and that’ll take some time. It’s not going to be a snap your fingers and we’ll see that kind of growth pulled out of that area, but it will open up new markets and new demand. And then finally, as I mentioned, regional loads in the area as well and people taking advantage of low price natural gas, and in fact, the shell big cracker there is just one good example of the industry growth, but as well we’re seeing power generation load to continue to build there as well in the PJM area. So I think really pretty clear examples of market growth for the Northeast.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Very helpful. And just one more on gas, if I could. I think in our stakeholder conversations across various states, we’re starting to see gas peakers come back into integrated resource planning that we had not seen in recent years or maybe had fallen out in recent years. And just wondering if you’re seeing this trend as well, particularly as it relates to Transco and its unique positioning? And could this lead to incremental opportunities beyond kind of what’s in the slides today?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think as we mentioned, the open season that we had for capacity south of 165 really kind of caught our attention, frankly, and far exceeded our expectations. And so when we say that it exceeded what we had to offer, it was a very large multiple versus what we had to offer there. So yes, we definitely are seeing the signs of people taking advantage of low price natural gas. And importantly, I think this is something that gets missed too often, Jeremy, I know you follow this, but I think sometimes the broader investor base misses this that – what we have to sell is capacity. It doesn’t mean that that’s going to be an annual average increase in volume as much as it does mean that people are absolutely going to have to buy capacity for those peakers and for baseload. And we actually, I think we’re going to see quite a bit of baseload pick up as well, because the amount of data centers, the amount of electrification load that’s going on is well in excess of what our increasing wind and solar generation can keep up with. And so we’re not only going to see peaking, we’re going to see baseload increase as well. But again, all of that boils down, whether it’s peaking or it’s baseload, people still have to buy the full amount of capacity on our pipeline. And that’s certainly coming through in these open seasons that we’ve been having on – in that area.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Right. Makes sense. Coal to gas baseload conversion clearly there, but the peaking needs – I think it seems a bit underappreciated. So very helpful color. Thank you for that.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll go next now to Jean Ann Salisbury at Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the comment that was just made Alan about there being plenty of capacity on Transco and it kind of being a competition between the Haynesville producers and the Appalachian producers. I think that for the open season for the 800,000, that timeline is kind of set for 2027. So is it accurate to say that capacity is there, but sort of needs to be unlocked to be usable over the next few years?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, also Jean Ann, you have to realize I think we have six projects along that exist, along that corridor or five along that corridor, excluding Regional Energy Access that are also expansions in that same area that were not dependent on Mountain Valley Pipeline supplies coming into that area. And so there’s a number of projects that and we got them listed there in our materials. So that is – obviously those come on before this latest open season would, but those are increments to serve increasing demand for power generation in the Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia areas.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Okay. But they’re kind of – I guess, maybe my broader question is like, if – like, there need to be projects that Williams does that are kind of negotiated rate incremental contract.
Alan Armstrong:
Well, yes, the point I think that’s misunderstood, Jean Ann, is that we have the physical capacity to move that gas from Station 165 period into sentence and not very complicated. We have plenty of capacity to move from that point. The piece I think that got missed by some of the market consultants was the fact that the – how much would actually move from that point, because people are already buying supplies from Station 180 – or sorry, Station 85 and moving it north, but those same shippers have the ability to pick their gas up at 165 if they choose to. So it’s just going to be a matter of where they decide to pick their gas. But we have plenty of capacity to move gas out of station, the 2 Bcf a day out of 165. So the physical capacity exists, the shippers actually are the ones that decide how we operate the system and where we move the gas from. And if they decide, they want to buy it at 165, 85 will get backed off and 165 will get picked up for supplies.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Got it. That makes sense. Thanks. And then as a follow-up, there was a big tick up in NGL and crude volumes that you classify as Overland Pass and Rocky Mountain Midstream this quarter. What was driving that?
Michael Dunn:
Hey, Jean Ann, this is Michael. Some of that was Bakken volumes coming in on the OPPL line from a third-party as well as some methane volumes that picked up in the quarter.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Great. That’s all for me. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Jean Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. We go next now to Brian Reynolds at UBS.
Brian Reynolds:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Maybe to start off in the 2023 outlook, John, you talked in the prepared remarks about year-to-date outperformance, which supports at least the midpoint. But just kind of curious if you can give some commentary around, uncertainty around these hurricanes in nat gas pricing. Is that baked in to your confidence over the midpoint and thus just assuming constructive or normalized second half fundamentals, just kind of curious if you could sensitize the upper end of the range as well. Thanks.
John Porter:
Yes. I think we want to have a lot of confidence in hitting our midpoint. So we do account for things that could happen around the hurricane season and perhaps additional weakness that could come, as I mentioned, from a further decline in natural gas prices. So we’ve built in some ability to handle those kinds of downsides relative to making sure that we can hit our midpoint. So I think conversely, the things that would move us higher in the range would just be better than forecasted performance in the underlying gathering and processing systems in the base business, which is always possible. And it is also possible that we could have a stronger marketing result in the fourth quarter. Sometimes we have fairly strong for example, Novembers and Decembers, but that is unpredictable. Most of that performance comes in the first quarter. So we don’t like to overly depend on any kind of a marketing result to make the numbers. And so we got a lot of confidence just from the base business around hitting the midpoint of our guidance and certainly think we could exceed it as well, but still fairly early in the year and just weren’t comfortable yet in raising the guidance.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. I appreciate…
Alan Armstrong:
Brian, I would just add – yes, I would just add to that. On the natural gas – sorry, on our marketing business that I think it’s really important to recognize that really what drove the negative in there was primarily just the markdown on NGL inventory. So that’s just – that’s not really cash, moving through the books, it’s just a change in price on the inventory that we hold. And so unless you – if we were to mark that book right now, obviously, you’d see a pretty big step up in that, just because ethane prices have come up so much. But I think that’s really important for the Street to understand relative to balance of the year.
Brian Reynolds:
Appreciate that. That makes a lot of sense. As my follow-up, great to see the environmental assessment for the Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway Project to bring nat gas from Texas into the Louisiana border. LNG demand continues to be a theme, particularly on gas E&P calls this quarter. So just kind of curious if you could just discuss perhaps further greenfield opportunities beyond TLEP that Williams could pursue to bring even more natural gas from Texas across to LNG to support that future demand. Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks, Brian. Well, I would tell you we are engaged in a number of projects there. And we’re not in a position to be able to disclose those at this point, but we are involved in some pretty large scale projects that we’re excited about and we think we’ll add a lot of value to our shareholders as well as the industry in general and much needed. So we’re pretty excited about that, but we’re not in a position yet to disclose exactly what’s going on there.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. Makes sense. We’ll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your morning. Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Brian.
Operator:
Thank you. We go next now to Praneeth Satish at Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Good morning. I guess, on Southeast Supply Enhancement, first, do you think the project could be upsized given that you noted a very strong open season? And then I guess, I’m still confused maybe a little bit on the lead time. The lead time for the project seems pretty long. It has an in-service date of Q4 2027. Is there anything in particular causing the timeline to be that long or is there may be a contingency in there for permitting?
Michael Dunn:
Hi, good morning, Praneeth. This is Michael. Yes, the open season results were a pleasant surprise and we’re currently working through the scenarios with the various customers that requested capacity there. It definitely can be upsized from the 800,000 to be published in the open season notice and we’re just working through that today. So hopefully, we’ll have some more information on that in the very near future in regard to the outcome of those negotiations. But it’s really just a combination of looping and compression additions alongside our brownfield Transco pipeline corridor. And it’s just getting the hydraulic modeling done and developing the proper scenarios and then ultimately giving the rates to the customers that would be identified by the looping and compression on those scenarios. So it’s a little bit of an iterative process, which we’re going through right now, but it can definitely be upside from the 800,000 a day. I’d say the schedule, right now, a lot of that’s driven by the customer’s desired in service date. And so a lot of this capacity is for new gas-fired power generation and anticipating when those new power plants come online is the expectation that the customer’s laying out there for us. I do think there may be an opportunity to accelerate the project at some point, but obviously we have to have customer agreements in place before we can start designing the desired schedule for the customers as well as our capital cash flow. So that’s really what we’re looking at right now. I think 2027 is probably the outside date that we’d be looking at and we’ll try to pull that in where we can.
Praneeth Satish:
Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess, just looking at the futures curve for natural gas, it’s in Contango, it’s pretty wide winter, summer spread right now. Just wondering if you could kind of talk through your ability to capture that at Sequent. I guess how much storage capacity does it have right now and how much of that is open and able to take advantage of these wider spreads?
Michael Dunn:
Yes, absolutely. The Sequent has a very large storage portfolio. I don’t know that we’ve actually disclosed the aggregate size of it is, but it is a very large storage portfolio and we would expect them to be able to lock in the intrinsic value of that storage. And they also have a lot of deliverability capabilities out of that storage and can optimize around that storage position as well. I don’t think we’ve given a lot of the specifics about the aggregate size of that storage position, but it is a strong storage position that we would expect them to be able to lock in a lot of value around.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just add to that, the way we would book those earnings, we actually would not book those earnings until we delivered. And so that’s really why our fourth – sorry, our first quarter is usually pretty sizable for us is that’s when you see the pricing and the most value for that storage is usually offered in that period. And so that’s a great example of why our first quarter tends to be so large. Some of that, like we said, make them in the fourth quarter depending on what pricing looks like and if we can cycle that storage twice, but we do have to cycle it to be able to take the earnings on that.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next now to Colton Bean at TPH and Company.
Colton Bean:
Good morning. I was just following up on the question on the Northeast saw it’s pretty significant sequential increase in G&P revenue. I know you mentioned the $14 million benefit from a catch up payment there. But even after adjusting for that, it seems like the year-on-year increase is still well above what we would’ve expected from inflation escalators alone. So I guess, are there any other contractual provisions that are pushing unit rates higher across the basin there?
John Porter:
No, I think really – as was asked earlier, the question of rich versus lean, obviously when there’s more rich gas drilling, there’s a lot more services that we offer around that. And so that does – that shift to richer gas does tend to drive our margin – our unit margin up across the basin.
Colton Bean:
Okay. And that’s primarily showing up in gathering I think on a processing basis volumes looked pretty consistent.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Right.
Colton Bean:
Got it. Okay. And then two related questions on cost control. I think if we look at the transmission segment, it looks like OpEx is roughly flat to your pre-acquisition levels after adjusting for the transaction expenses there. So you seeing MountainWest synergies materialize earlier than expected, or should we expect some degree of cost increase moving forward? And then just more broadly, it looks like pretty impressive cost control across all segments expenses flat to down on a year-over-year basis. So if you could just comment more broadly on your cost control initiatives and expectations through the balance of the year.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. Colton, thanks for that recognition. Yes, the team’s doing a great job controlling our costs even in this inflationary environment. We have found some ways to actually continue to take cost out of the business and as you’ve indicated, the MountainWest acquisition is really the cost increase that we’re seeing there on the e-comm side of the business. And so I think going through the balance of the year, we would have an expectation that we can continue that cost control. Now, there’s always a lot of variability throughout the second and third quarters with our maintenance activities and our overhauls that are recurring and that would be the only variance that we would see there typically coming up between the second and third quarter, but other than that team’s doing a great job controlling costs this year.
Colton Bean:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next now to Neel Mitra of Bank of America.
Neel Mitra:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to clarify on Jean Ann’s question, the available capacity on Transco. So if I understood it right, are you saying that there’s available capacity on Transco from MVP if you were to back off volumes from Zone 4? So it essentially would be shifting volumes from one area to another to accommodate the existing utility demand. And then I guess the follow on to that would be to accommodate new growth and new demand from utilities, there would need to be Transco expansions. Am I thinking about that the right way?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Neel, let me try explain it one more time. The way the most of the system rates work on there, the shippers have pay the same price, they pay us no matter where the gas is moving from. Generally the – those utilities in that corridor have the ability to pick up gas and they have a volume available that they can pull from at various receipt points. And so they basically are out trying to buy the lowest price gas on the system that they can have delivered into their meters every day. And when we talk about system capacities, we’re actually talking about kind of the delivery capacity to those locations, and it’s – this particular path that somebody buys capacity from on the system. But the big long haul system and the original base system, the shippers have the ability to choose where they want to pull their supply in from. And so even if they’re – we have a number of expansions going on, but even if you just looked at it in a static environment, if somebody today was buying gas Station 85, that gas is likely coming in from either system gas on in the Offshore or Haynesville or gas that’s made its way in from the Permian. But Station 85 or 65 would be a place that customers would be nominating their supplies from and they’d be buying gas from maybe a Haynesville producer at Station 85. If they – if somebody from the Marcellus decides, they want to sell their gas cheaper at 165, then that customer’s going to be able to say, well, I’m going to nominate from Station 165 – at the 165 location instead of 85. Same amount of gas eventually flows to their delivery point. But it’s just a matter of where they source their supply from. So in – so we – it’s just going to be a question of where producers decide to sell their gas set and who wants to compete the most for those supplies. As we build out the system and the demand then matches back up to that supply then the system would be back in balance. And – but that’s the way it always worked. There’s always periods where supply builds up because you have more supply locations, then you have delivery, and then eventually you build out the delivery market like we’re doing in all these projects. And then more supply is needed, which is kind of the situation at Station – sorry, at Zone 5 right now. People got caught short there in the winter because there was not enough supply coming in there. So MVP will provide that needed supply that was missing this last winter.
Neel Mitra:
Yes. I think maybe the confusion is whether if all things are static and you didn’t back anything off of Zone 4, how much could you move South on Transco down from Zone 165 with the MVP volumes that are coming in?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, it doesn’t have to just move South. It can move North and South. So I think that’s maybe the missing concept there is the gas can – will move wherever the market is, but we certainly have more demand on the system in both directions from 165 than 2 Bcf a day.
Neel Mitra:
Got it, got it. Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll go next now to Tristan Richardson of Scotiabank.
Tristan Richardson:
Hey, good morning, guys. Just curious your views on the transmission M&A landscape. I mean, it seems like the funnel of assets in the market is really only growing and clearly we’ve seen a lot of transactions clear the past 12 months, even if they’re passive stakes. Have you just seen more opportunities that would potentially be a strategic bid? And then do you see these multiples as attractive in transmission with some of the transactions we’ve seen clear?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Good question, Tristan. I would just say we were really pleased with multiple, we were able to pick up the MountainWest assets pretty seldom that you get assets that are – that well contracted that have that much growth around them, which frankly has been more than we even expected. Pretty rare to see that kind of multiple. I think that the issue there that kind of dampen the market was the concerns over Hart-Scott-Rodino that had been raised earlier in the Berkshire Hathaway and Dominion transaction that involved those assets. And I think that had the market a little bit spooked on that. So maybe that’s why we were able to bridge over that in that case. But yes, so I would say, we’re going to keep looking for those anomalies like that and where we have confidence in our ability to add value to assets. But I think it’s going to be rare circumstances that we see those kind of multiple. There’s usually a reason in this case, I think a lot of the issue was the risk around Hart-Scott-Rodino that it already surfaced itself on those assets earlier.
Tristan Richardson:
That’s helpful, Alan. And then maybe just a question on MountainWest, I mean, with the Overthrust Expansion, sounded like that was maybe incremental to your expectations or at least what you saw as the opportunity set for the acquisition at the time of close. Maybe curious kind of is one of potentially other expansions that it could occur. And then maybe if there’s anything on the scale and timing of that project that you didn’t already mention.
Alan Armstrong:
Mike, do you want to take that?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. Tristan that was not in our pro forma economics for the acquisition. So it’s certainly a pleasant upside there with the MountainWest acquisition. This is about an 11% increase in the Overthrust capacity for the 325,000 dekatherms a day expansion. And it’s a pretty simple expansion. It is two compressors that we’re adding at existing compression facilities on that system, but there’s definitely more upside opportunity there. There seems to be a desire to get more gas Westbound toward the Opal pricing point. That’s been a pretty solid pricing point for a number of years now. And even this summer, we’ve seen gas trading at $4 there at the Opal hub, even higher than that, just driven by California economics with the heat that hits California this summer and gas generation that’s picking up there. So I would expect to see a lot of desire for customers to get to that Opal pricing point. And that certainly bodes well for Overthrust at the direct connection into that hub. And as far as the rest of the MountainWest system, we see a lot of opportunity there for coal to gas switching. There’s a number of very large coal-fired power plants in Wyoming and Utah that do have opportunities for conversion to natural gas. And some of those we’ve already acquired and we’re actually building expansions for off the Overthrust system today in Bridger Units 1 and 2 in Wyoming on the [indiscernible] system are converting to gas. And we’re building a pipeline over to the – that facility this year. So we’ll continue to see opportunities like that on the MountainWest system and those are certainly upside opportunities, not only for us, but gas will be sourced out of the Wamsutter field with our Upstream production and we’re driving that gas to those markets as well with the secret platform.
Tristan Richardson:
That’s great. Appreciate it. Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
Thank you. We go next now to Gabriel Moreen at Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen:
Hey, good morning, everyone. It looks like you had a lot of E&P hedges since your last update in 1Q. I was just wondering if you can not to beat a dead horse on 2023 guidance, which I know I’m doing, but just what the exposure is at this point on the E&P side, and then also as you think about hedging 2024 for on the E&P side, which what you’re thinking, and maybe in light of also potentially doing some transactions around E&P with the gas curve having creeped up a little bit here.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes John, you want to take the first part of that and I’ll take the last?
John Porter:
Yes. Absolutely. We have continued to add hedges on the expected Upstream JV production. We generally don’t go too far in hedging. We like to have a comfortable spread between what’s hedged and what’s not hedged, just to account for the potential for any kind of production offset. So there is a fairly significant portion that that remains unhedged. We do provide in our materials all of the current hedges that we have outstanding against the Upstream business and that’s in the appendix.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And Gabe, I would just add to that, I think in terms of our approach to hedging on the E&P side, we have been putting on some April through October hedges for gas in 2024. And as John said, large – so part of that’s driven by the fact that we don’t really want to get caught short in an up market. I think everybody experienced that a couple of years ago. And so we tend to not get ourselves in a position where we could get caught short on production, particularly since we don’t operate that production. So that’s how we think about hedging on the E&P side there. So – but in terms of the – in the broader scheme of things, in terms of transactions around E&P, I would just say we continue to entertain a lot of interest in that. And I would just say I – as we look at the landscape and the demand that’s building for not just – everybody’s very focused on LNG and we think obviously that’s going to continue to be a big driver for demand, but the macro picture we’re seeing around electrification and the amount of power demand increase that continues to build in this country is pretty impressive. And we’re also seeing a lot of industrial demand pick up in and around our assets as well, and things that were previously powered by either fuel oil or coal or onshoring ammonia production here in the U.S. there’s just a lot of demand building and we have a pretty good insight to that. So it’s kind of seems shortsighted to get in a hurry to sell out particularly at like the Haynesville where the team, the GeoSouthern team has done a great job there and they continue to find ways to lower cost and increase production there. So we think both from their operational capabilities, which we’re enjoying and the macro fundamentals around gas is just not really a compelling reason to liquidate in this environment.
Gabriel Moreen:
Thanks, Alan. And then maybe if I can just ask a follow-up on the ERP spend at Transco, and I recognize it’s – Transco’s got an awfully big rate base to it, but as you think about having to file the rate case at Transco and its upcoming, how do you think about ERP spend within that context? Does it matter at all with the rate case coming up as far as accelerating it or refraining from doing that?
Michael Dunn:
Hey Gabe, it’s Michael. Yes. We just put in service at Station 180 replacement. We’ve replaced 14 units there with two new state-of-the-art turbines, and we’ve got three more stations that will be very similar fashion coming on before the test period closes on the rate case. And so that’s the anticipated bin curve there, similar to what we did on 180. And its really highly dependent after that on the rate case outcome and whether we get an emissions tracker, which we would certainly hope to achieve on the Transco rate case, similar to what we were able to do on Northwest Pipeline. And that would really drive our decision making in the near-term on spending beyond the 2024, 2025 timeframe. And we layer that into what our next rate case tranche looks like on the Transco system and really try to balance that spending curve where we think those rate cases are going to line out there in the future. But obviously hoping to go into this one with an emissions tracker, modernization type tracker coming out of the negotiated settlement that we hope to achieve with the Transco customers and we’ll see how that turns out.
Gabriel Moreen:
Got it. Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
We’ll go next now to Neal Dingmann at Truist.
Jake Nivasch:
Hi, this is Jake Nivasch on for Neal. Just a quick one on cap allocation. I think you guys might have covered it, but I just want to make sure that I heard it correctly. Just in regards to distribution growth, I mean, you guys are pretty well covered even after that 5% boost this year. Are you looking – and you might have covered this already, but are you looking to accelerate that at some point in the near-term? Or just curious how you guys are thinking about that?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, really good question. I would say that we’ve said all along that we expect this business to generate in the 5% to 7% growth on EBITDA and that we would expect that to keep our dividend somewhat in line with that. And so I think as we think about it forward AFFO per share really is the number I think to keep your eye on that’ll drive our decisions on dividend looking forward. And so I think that’s a really good number for you to focus on. But yes, we certainly have plenty of room, plenty of capacity and in terms of that dividend increase, and it’s just going to be driven by what we’re seeing as a kind of a long-term sustainable AFFO per share is really what’s going to drive our dividend decisions.
Jake Nivasch:
Got you. Okay. That’s it for me. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we’ll go next now to Robert Catellier at CIBC Capital Markets.
Robert Catellier:
Hi, Rob Catellier, I just wanted to follow-up on capital allocation this time on M&A. So understanding that you’ve been quite active in the last 18 months or so. Can you comment on the company’s appetite for additional acquisitions and maybe on the state of the M&A market understanding that maybe MountainWest was a little unique. So just how the low commodity prices and higher interest rates are impacting bid of spreads?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would say that that’s not completely clear to us yet. It’s a good question and you would think it would ultimately have some impact, particularly people that are exposed to floating rates that, that, that certainly would drive some transactions. But I would say we haven’t seen great evidence of that occurring just yet. And I would just say we’re going to be like we have been hanging around the hoop looking for things where we have a unique competitive advantage that drives really strong accretion and value to our shareholders. And so far that patience has paid off really well for us. And I don’t see any reason we would change that patience to keep kind of looking for those things that are very unique and that we have a unique competitive advantage on. And so that’s what I would tell you to expect more of, but I’m not sure that, that I yet see the market being flooded or depressed with assets yet from people that might be sitting on floating rate capitalization. So we’re very fortunate where we stand from both a debt capacity and an interest rate standpoint without floating rate exposure. So we’re really excited about where we stand, but there may be some businesses and assets that get a little bit damaged and have to look for transactions to solve their problems, but that’s not evident to us just yet.
Robert Catellier:
Okay. That was the color I was looking for. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We do have no further questions this morning. Mr. Armstrong, I’d like to turn things back to you for closing comments.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you all for the great questions this morning. Thank you for your continued interest in the company and we just want to reiterate how excited we are about our continued growth on top of growth here in the business and our abilities to demonstrate our resilience this quarter and we appreciate your confidence in our company. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you again. Ladies and gentlemen, I will conclude The Williams second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. I’d like to thank you all so much for joining us and wish you all a great day. Goodbye.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Williams First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Abby and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we have released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong and the Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you will find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Danilo and thank you all for joining us today. Our natural gas-focused strategy continues to deliver steady predictable growth and this past year was no exception – sorry, this past quarter was no exception with our adjusted EBITDA, up nearly 20% compared to the first quarter of ‘22. And let me remind you that last year was a record year for growth as well when we were up 14% on an annual basis, so really a big quarter for us on a tough comp. We saw strong performance across all key financial metrics in the first quarter and set new records in our key operational stats as well, once again demonstrating our businesses’ resiliency through commodity price swings. But beyond this obvious financial performance in the headlines, please don’t miss the importance of the accomplishments in this past quarter that will serve to produce growth in ‘24 and beyond. So let me start out here on Slide 2 by highlighting a few of these accomplishments that will continue to drive what has now been over 10 years of consistent year-over-year EBITDA growth. First, we closed the acquisition of the MountainWest Natural Gas Transmission and Storage business, well ahead of our expectations. This acquisition enhances our position in the Western U.S. and expands our services to key Rockies markets. We are really happy with how the integration of MountainWest and The Williams has been progressing since we closed in February. And in fact, we are already seeing several expansion opportunities that were not in our pro forma, proving this asset is best positioned to be optimized within The Williams platform. Our team also accelerated the timing on key deliverables for several other fixed fee-based projects that are all supported by long-term contracts. This includes our Louisiana Energy Gateway project, Transco’s Southeast Energy Connector and Transco’s Regional Energy Access project. In fact, project execution is now in full swing on both Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway. And as a result of the quick action by the FERC and our construction teams, we now expect to bring approximately half of this regional energy access capacity into service ahead of schedule and actually in the fourth quarter of this year. So, that will be just in time to meet growing demand in the Northeast region ahead of the winter heating season. Of course, this will also provide new market for producers on our Northeast Pennsylvania gathering systems, which of course is incremental to the returns on a project like that. We also executed several key agreements with Chevron to facilitate natural gas production growth in the Haynesville and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. As part of those agreements, we gained a large dedication to our recently acquired Trace gathering system and a long-term capacity commitment on our Louisiana Energy Gateway project. This is a great example of Williams and Chevron working together to connect prolific domestic resources to expanding LNG export markets. We also placed several large-scale gathering expansion into service this quarter. The Marcellus South gathering expansion in Southwest Appalachia increased our capacity by 100 million cubic feet per day from rich gas supplies in this area and significant progress was also made on our build-out of the new and fully contracted capacity on our Susquehanna County gathering system in Northeast PA. We also added 100 million cubic feet per day of capacity this quarter as part of the second phase of our Haynesville Spring Ridge expansion. And we saw first flow for the Taggart expansion project in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico across our Devils Tower platform. Importantly, this is the first of five significant expansion projects that are expected to come online over the next 2 years and that will ultimately double our Gulf of Mexico earnings contributions. Finally, I will add that we are moving forward on a number of projects in our backlog and our visibility to growth on the transmission side of the business is as good as we have seen it. From a financial perspective, the strength of our assets across all areas is reflected in our solid first quarter results and in fact, our base business produced record contracted transmission capacity and record gathering volumes even after we exclude the contributions from acquisitions. The one underperforming area was in NGL processing margins, but more about this in a moment. Importantly, this was a quarter in which we saw Sequent fully optimized assets in our base business, underscoring the balance and improved commercial competencies that the Sequent acquisition has delivered for the benefit of our natural gas strategy. So for example, in the Northeast, we benefited from record gathering volumes and significantly outperformed the broader Marcellus production trends as Sequent provided takeaway markets uniquely for our producing customers in Ohio. In the transmission and Gulf of Mexico segment, we realized higher short-term firm sales on our pipes as Sequent helped to commercialize more business in that area as well and now back to the big variance in our processing margins. In the West, our NGL processing margins on the legacy Williams business were actually negative due to abnormally high natural gas prices at Opal and really throughout everything west of Opal. Normally, this would have shown up as a significant negative issue for the quarter. However, Sequent was able to capitalize on these large natural gas basis spreads in the West and more than offset the negative NGL margins turning this volatility into a net positive for Williams. Our acquisitions continue to deliver as expected proving that our capital allocation strategy to fund these transactions with excess Sequent and E&P cash flows is setting us up for continued reliable and predictable earnings growth. I’d also note that as the market continues to underappreciate and undervalue the strength and resilience of our business, we stand ready to utilize our repurchase program as we did during this first quarter. So overall, a great quarter that has us set up for growth in ‘24 and beyond. And with that, John will walk us through the financial metrics for the quarter. John?
John Porter:
Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 4 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance, beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw a 19% year-over-year increase. As we will see on the next slide, our adjusted EBITDA growth included growth of over $100 million from our core large-scale natural gas transmission and gathering and processing businesses, including new records for both gathering and contracted transmission capacity. But it also included strong performance from our Sequent gas marketing business, which dramatically overcame a perfect storm of severe winter weather impacts on our Wyoming businesses. Those Wyoming impacts included hits to both upstream and gathering and processing volumes as well as our Southwest Wyoming gas processing margins which were much lower from a surge in January shrink replacement gas price. Our adjusted EPS increased 37% for the quarter, continuing the strong growth we have had in EPS over the last many years. Available funds from operations, AFFO growth was even better than adjusted EBITDA at 22% year-over-year. Also, you see our dividend coverage based on AFFO was a very strong 2.65x on a dividend that grew 5.3% over the prior year. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with debt to adjusted EBITDA now reaching 3.57x versus last year’s 3.81x. And that’s even after closing the trade, NorTex and MountainWest acquisitions and also repurchasing $83 million of shares since last year. On growth CapEx, you see an increase over first quarter last year primarily reflecting the progress we are making on some of our key growth projects, including Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway. So before we move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our adjusted EBITDA results for the quarter, we will provide a few updates to our 2023 financial guidance. No change to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion or any of our other consolidated financial performance metrics. Looking further into the year, our core transmission and gathering and processing businesses should see some additional growth from the first quarter level. For transmission in Gulf of Mexico, we will see some ramp from a full quarter of MountainWest Pipeline and some other smaller sequential improvements through the rest of the year that should allow for a strong finish to the year. In the Northeast, we are expecting a modest increase towards the end of the year from the first quarter EBITDA level, primarily from our higher margin liquids-rich systems. Overall though, we are not counting on a lot of additional growth in the Northeast from this $470 million first quarter level, which was up 12% over the prior year. In the West, we are expecting some modest increases through the remainder of the year from the $286 million first quarter level, especially reflecting improvement from some of the challenges we saw in the first quarter, which we will discuss further on the next slide. For the marketing business, we have had a strong overall start to 2023. And importantly, hitting the midpoint of our guidance doesn’t rely on any additional EBITDA from Sequent at this point. With respect to the upstream joint venture EBITDA guidance, it’s been a tough start to our Wyoming operation with the extremely difficult winter weather that significantly impacted producing volume and our drilling plans. So we see this business likely trending towards the lower half of the $230 million to $430 million guidance range. But to be clear, for our consolidated adjusted EBITDA, we are still focused on hitting at least the midpoint of our guidance range at $6.6 billion. We are increasing our growth CapEx by $200 million to reflect the acceleration of our largest Transco project, Regional Energy Access, which we hope to bring into partial service later this year, early partial in-service for regional energy access won’t have a huge impact on 2023 and is really just upside to our hitting the midpoint of our guidance for EBITDA. So, let’s turn to the next slide and take a little closer look at the first quarter results. Again, the first quarter matched our expectations for a very strong start to the year with 19% growth over the prior year. Walking now from last year’s $1.512 billion to this year’s record $1.795 billion, we start with our upstream joint venture operations that are included in our other segment, which were up only $3 million over last year. Our Haynesville upstream EBITDA was up about $32 million as there was really very little production in the first quarter of last year. However, the Haynesville increase was offset by lower Wamsutter results due primarily to the historically difficult winter weather we saw in Wyoming this year. In fact, we estimate overall weather-impacted volumes during the first quarter were probably about 3.5x what we normally expect. And of course that impact flowed through to our Wamsutter gathering and processing assets as well. Shifting now to our core business performance, our transmission in Gulf of Mexico business improved $31 million or 4% due primarily from the partial contribution from the MountainWest Pipeline acquisition, which closed on February 14 and a full quarter from the NorTex acquisition. Our Northeast Gathering and Processing business performed very well with a $52 million or 12% increase driven by $73 million increase in service revenue. This revenue increase was fueled by 7% increase in total volumes in the Northeast focused in our liquids-rich areas, where we tend to have higher per unit margins than our dry gas areas. And in the appendix, you will find a slide that compares our 7% volume growth to the overall basin growth of just under 2%. Shifting now to the West, which increased $26 million or 10%, benefiting from positive hedge results and a full quarter of the Trace acquisition, but the West was significantly unfavorably impacted by the severe Wyoming weather and January processing economics at our Opal Wyoming processing plants. Overall, gas processing margins were $44 million lower this year than last and that was largely a January phenomenon. All in, the West was about 3% short of our plan, although the winter weather impact was much worse than we had planned. And then you see the $165 million increase in our gas and NGL marketing business. And at our Analyst Day, we did point to a strong start to the year for this business due to the economics that we saw around our year end Sequent transportation and storage positions. Ultimately, the $231 million for gas marketing was driven by positive transportation margins across all regions and strong storage margins that benefited from the lower cost or market write-down we discussed in the fourth quarter review. So again, a strong start to 2023 with 19% growth in EBITDA, driven by core infrastructure business performance with strength from our marketing business that dramatically overcame weaker-than-expected results from the upstream joint ventures. And with that, I will turn it back to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, John. And so, now just a few closing remarks before we turn it over to your questions. First, I will start by reiterating our belief that Williams remains a compelling investment opportunity. We are the most natural gas-centric large-scale midstream company around today and the integrated nature of our business from our best-in-class long-haul pipes to our formidable gathering assets and our value-driving Sequent platform is unique. Our combination of proven resilience, a 5-year EPS CAGR of 23%, coverage that is now approaching 3x on our high growth dividend, a strong balance sheet and high visibility to growth is unique amongst the S&P 500 and unique within our sector. I will add that there is a reason we have stuck with our natural gas-focused strategy for as long as we have. This strategy allowed us to produce a 10-year track record of growing adjusted EBITDA through a large number of commodity and economic cycles and is continuing to deliver significant growth in the current environment, but the signals coming from the market show that it is going to continue to deliver substantial growth for the long-term as well. Natural gas demand continues to build, and the recent low prices actually will drive even more growth in demand over the long-term as the combination of low price, low emissions and energy security is exactly what the world will need more of. U.S. natural gas infrastructure is key to meeting both today’s energy demand as well as projected growth of electrification and renewables build out in the future. Natural gas is the solution for the most complex challenge of our time, producing affordable and reliable energy while meeting our climate goals and the United States is positioned better than any other country on this front. But access to our abundant and low cost natural gas reserves is dependent on having the appropriate infrastructure to move energy when and where it is needed and we are seeing and feeling today the impacts of inadequate infrastructure with consumers bearing the brunt of these actions in the form of high utility bills, unnecessary blackouts and energy-driven inflation. The good news is that we have a solution that is readily available, a solution that will support global emission reductions, keep energy cost affordable and grow our nation’s competitiveness. Enabling this efficient, unobstructed build-out of our nation’s energy infrastructure to ensure delivery of natural gas is foundational to the U.S.’ leadership on greenhouse gas emission reduction and energy security. And we at Williams will proudly continue our efforts to strongly advocate for actionable energy policy solutions and permitting reform in the days and months ahead. So with that, I will open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds from UBS. Your line is open.
Brian Reynolds:
Hi, good morning everyone. John, appreciate the color in the prepared remarks on being able to hit your guidance with the base business without marketing. That said marketing clearly showcased a really strong results for the quarter. And while I know the segment is volatile. I was curious if you guys could provide perhaps an updated view on maybe an annualized EBITDA run-rate for the marketing segment, just given the recent acquisitions of NorTex and MountainWest? Thanks.
John Porter:
Yes. Thanks, Brian. We certainly have seen that since we bought Sequent back in about 18 months ago or coming up on 2 years ago, Sequent has a great ability to capitalize on natural gas price volatility, but also doing that using a low-risk business model. I would say though that we are really not ready to take the $50 million to $70 million long-term run rate that we have talked about before up at this point. Some of these positions that they utilize are more short-term in nature, especially the storage positions. And again, we would emphasize that a big reason they have been able to do as well as they have has just been the historically high natural gas price volatility, especially what we saw last year through the summer months and also in the fourth quarter. So those are a couple of reasons that we would like to stick with the $50 million to $70 million long-term run-rate. However, as I mentioned in my commentary, I forecast – our current forecast does show that we do not need any additional EBITDA from Sequent this year to make the midpoint of our guidance. And as I also mentioned, the favorable results really did show in the first quarter how Sequent was able to counter the unfavorable results we saw in our gas processing margins and some of the other things that we saw in the Upstream and Wamsutter gathering and processing EBITDA.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. Thanks. Appreciate all that. Maybe just a follow-up on the nat gas macro, Williams has highlighted that I can continue to show base business growth in a low nat gas environment. So kind of I was wondering if you could perhaps discuss two sides of the coin. One, how low nat gas prices are supporting increased demand for transmission projects in that 2025 plus timeframe? And then second, near-term, how could low nat gas prices kind of impact some volumetric headwinds on the G&P side of the business over the next, call it, next 6 to 12 months? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks, Brian. This is Alan. First of all, I think what we are seeing already, April numbers came out on power generation and power generation was already up about 2 Bcf a day on a previous 27 Bcf a day load for April of ‘22. So we are already seeing some pretty good pool based on price on natural gas in the power generation space. And I think we will continue if prices stay low like they are, I think we will continue to see that through the summer on the full side. So that’s a good thing for us just because obviously, the capacity demand will be important for us. I think on the – in terms of that impact on the G&P business, I think we’re certainly paying close attention to that. Many of our big producers are hedged out pretty well, and we’re seeing people continuing to produce through that. So don’t expect – we’re certainly not expecting growth on average across the space, to be clear, but we’re pretty fortunate to be in some of the lower-cost basins and with producers that have been managing this pretty well. One of the areas that we’re really seeing continued growth is in the rich gas and some of the condensate areas in the Marcellus and the Utica areas, and so we’re fortunate to be pretty well exposed to that area as well. So I would just say, as always, we have such a wide variety of exposure across so many different basins that will whatever the demand pool is on natural gas, our volumes will reflect that and really excited this quarter to see our Sequent team, it’s been a strategy of ours for our Sequent team to go out and provide market and preferentially to our gathering customers in places like the Marcellus because obviously, there is value for our gas moving over the top of other gas in the basin. And so certainly, our Sequent team has shown their ability in that area and we’re excited to see that. So I would just say we’re – I’d say on the macro side, it certainly see an oversupply situation. Supply grew almost 6 Bcf in first quarter of 23% versus first quarter of 22%. So supply side is certainly continuing to grow a lot faster than demand and obviously that means lower prices. But I do think we will see a pretty big response from power generation this summer as we’re already seeing here – as we already saw in April.
Brian Reynolds:
Great. Appreciate all the color. I will leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to kind of switch to natural gas and exports, LNG, if I could. Just wondering your wellhead to export strategy at this point. So the Sempra HOA and just wondering if you could expand a bit there. I guess, what your vision is for that dynamic? And how big could that be over time?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. This is Chad Zamarin. We continue to advance our wellhead water strategy since our Analyst Day update. And I’ll start by saying you referenced the Sempra HOA. I mean we think very highly of the Sempra team and have continued to engage with Sempra following the non-binding HOA we announced last year. But we’ve also been evaluating a number of competing opportunities as well. We’ve been spending a lot of time with our producer customers as well as with international LNG buyers, and we’re seeing really positive strong interest in both producers wanting access to international prices and international LNG buyers wanting access to domestic producers so they can buy LNG from U.S. supplies at international prices. And so we think we provide a unique solution. We haven’t finalize the definitive agreement yet, but we continue to build confidence around our ability to add LNG as an extension of our natural gas value chain in a way it will provide for fixed margins for Williams while shifting that international price exposure to producers and LNG buyers. And so I would just say that we continue to prove up the strategy. We feel really good and feel like we’re making great positive strides. And I think we’d expect to finalize a definitive arrangement with Sempra or with an alternative LNG partner sometime here in the near-term 2023.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful there. Thanks. And I just wanted to kind of shift to REA in the partial and service this winter. Just wondering how you think about timing there? Maybe it’s not much of a 23% EBITDA contribution, but any thoughts and really, I also want to see on the Northeast G&P, does that kind of unlock growth there? Or do you think producers might be timing production with when that comes online and just wondering how much EBITDA uplift could you see in the Northeast GMP associated with REA unlocking incremental capacity there?
Michael Dunn:
Hey, good morning, Jeremy, this is Michael. Yes, I would just, first of all, I want to thank our project execution team for doing a tremendous job being prepared to start construction on that project. It’s a challenging permitting environment, especially in the Northeast right now, and the team designed this project so that it could be permitted and we really got through that process fairly quickly there. Ultimately, and the team was certainly prepared to the tree-clearing window that was closing very rapidly post FERC certificate issuance and really pleased that we got that tree-clearing done early, and we’ve actually fully mobilized contractors for the pipeline loop installations. So we do expect a partial in service by the fourth quarter of 2023. So there will be a contribution to 2023 EBITDA. We’re not predicting the actual in-service date of that yet, but it will be before year-end. And I do think that will translate to some opportunities in the gathering business as well upstream. The producers have been awaiting this additional capacity to be unlocked in the Northeast. And we are certainly pocketing those producer customers up there to be anticipating when this project will come online. But I do think it will provide additional value in ‘24 as well, and I think that’s really where we’re going to see the additional uplift on the gathering business, certainly not only on the Transco side. Really pleased with how it’s gone so far, and we will keep you updated as we progress with the construction through the summer.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. I will leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Marc Solecitto from Barclays. Your line is open.
Marc Solecitto:
Hi, good morning. Could you maybe help us unpack the weather impacts that affected the West segment during the quarter, particularly on the volume and cost side and maybe the underlying trajectory of that business through the course of the year?
John Porter:
Yes, Marc, I’ll take that on. Michael can add any color. I think break it down into a couple of different areas. One, we’ve talked quite a bit about the impact of the NGL margins, which is pretty clear. If you look at the analyst package on the appendix to the press release, NGL margins were $44 million lower year-over-year. So that’s a pretty good go by in terms of the impact there. Almost all of that decrease in NGL margins happened at the Opal processing plant and almost all of that was related to the historically high shrink cost that we had in January of this year where natural gas prices were in the $50 a dekatherm range. And since then, we’ve seen that come way back down into something much more normal like $2.50. As far as the rest of the impact, if you kind of look at the sum of what happened in the upstream JV part of the business at Wamsutter plus the Wamsutter gathering and processing impact. Some of those two were about $70 million lower than our planned expectations for the first quarter. So again, between those two, about a $70 million impact, yes, we saw – I think one of the things we looked at said that we saw probably about 12 Bcf of impacted volumes for the whole first quarter, whereas in a normal year, that might be a little bit more than 3 Bcf. So just very historic conditions out there and the recovery is ongoing. It’s – now we’ve transitioned to high rivers and muddy roads but the recovery is happening and volumes are being restored and margins are returning to a more normalized level. So expect quite a bit of improvement there when we get to the second quarter versus what we saw in the first quarter.
Marc Solecitto:
Got it. That was very helpful. And in terms of the domestic demand outlook in the medium to longer-term, there is obviously a lot of focus on the incremental LNG export capacity expected to come online over the next few years. But also curious to get your take on domestic industrial demand outlook in the U.S. with potential onshore and just given everything going on geopolitically?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks for that good question. I think really, if you break that down, the areas that are going to be driven. Obviously, anything that is heavy gas use is coming home. If we’re going to be – we are the major exporter and will be the growing larger exporter. It means we’ve got the lowest price natural gas around the world likely, and that will bring the industry here, like fertilizer business, obviously, is a big piece that been picking up pretty significantly from that, but a lot of other industries that are heavy natural gas users will continue to be domiciled here in the U.S. So that, I think, is fairly certain. I think in terms of how much that is, it will probably be pretty small in comparison to the LNG growth that we’re seeing. And it’s pretty impressive right now to look at the amount of NGL growth I think right now, there is about 23 Bcf of new expected on by 2032. And that’s up against a ‘22 number of about 10.9 Bcf a day. So, a lot of growth coming in that space. The other area, as I mentioned earlier, obviously, the power generation sector and for us, that’s kind of got two facets to it that I think sometimes the market misunderstands for us. First of all, certainly, when low gas prices are there, we will see that take out a lot of the baseload coal business that’s out there today. We’re already seeing that here in the shoulder, but we will certainly see it this summer. But in addition to that, from a Williams perspective, we sell the capacity. And so as you see more and more electrification occurring, it’s very clear that the utilities are going to be left with really no other alternative in gas-fired generation as a backup for that, and we are certainly seeing that in our discussions with our customers and a demand for that incremental capacity that’s available that we can uniquely provide into some of those markets. And so that demand for capacity as opposed to volume is a really key thing to note from a Williams perspective because we’re not all that concerned about the annual average demand for natural gas as much as we are the capacity that has to be provided to back up renewables. And as you study electrification, that is really going to fall to the benefit of natural gas-fired generation and particularly to the infrastructure, both on the transmission and the storage side that can support that. And obviously, we continue with our MountainWest acquisition and with our expansions on the Transco system, our conversion of Washington storage and our purchase of NorTex storage last year. We are all about being in a position to serve that business and serve it well.
Marc Solecitto:
Got it. That’s very helpful. Appreciate the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. Good morning. Just maybe a follow-up on Sequent, do you think at this point, Sequent is basically like a hedge against worsening gas prices? In other words, do you think Sequent could generate higher results if gas prices go lower and therefore, kind of offset some of the exposure you have to gas price on the E&P and G&P side?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, I would just say where there is volatility, that’s where Sequent going to perform well and where there is basis dislocation that’s where they are going to perform because effectively, what we’re really monetizing with Sequent is we’re monetizing storage. So price movement from one period from a time-based period obviously drives value for us. as well as dislocation and basis differentials when we own the transportation between those locations. That’s really what drives value for Sequent. And so I would say that it’s pretty hard to forecast a period where we don’t see quite a bit of volatility in price as we’ve got a big growing demand for LNG looming on the horizon and people not being exactly certain when that’s going to be available. And certainly, the value of storage to serve those loads and to serve quick swing loads for renewables is definitely on the horizon. And I think we will continue to cause volatility both from a time spread and both from a basis spread perspective. And so we’re pretty excited about the way that Sequent will perform in that. But what it wouldn’t protect from is if we were sitting here with a completely flat curve at both prices far out in the future, that’s the environment that it wouldn’t provide us any protection and to be clear. But as long as we’ve got basis spread and we’ve got time spread and value there, that’s where the Sequent team is going to perform well.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. And I was just wondering if you could comment on your JV with GeoSouthern and the outlook for production there with gas prices at these levels. I guess the futures curve is still pretty good. So is there still an intent to increase production to, I think it was a goal of 800 million cubic feet per day by 2025 or could the pace kind of moderate a bit until prices recover?
Chad Zamarin:
Thanks. This is Chad. As of right now, that team is continuing to perform and performed exceptionally well. We’ve got great partnership with GeoSouthern. And right now, they are holding production based on the available midstream capacity. And as Alan mentioned, as you noted, the forward curve is constructive, so they intend to kind of keep that development pace going and we’re looking at kind of the gas macro coming into late ‘24, early ‘25 and seeing demand pick up. So I think there is a desire to want to be ready to make sure the volumes are there as the market continues to balance towards more demand. And so our expectation is that they’ll continue to keep pace with the midstream capacity. They work very closely. Again, the Sequent story, I mean we are working really hard to make sure they find good markets. And so we think also with the Louisiana Energy Gateway project and our ability to get the GeoSouthern volumes connected to really good markets that they’ll continue that growth that we’ve laid out.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Moreen from Mizuho. Your line is open.
Gabe Moreen:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Can I ask on a quick question on the share repurchases for the quarter? John, it looks like you beat the average price for the quarter quite nicely in the buybacks. Should we think about this still is pretty opportunistic and then the $75 billion figure is that about your bogey for what you think you can handle quarter in, quarter out at this point?
John Porter:
Thanks for the question, Gabe. Obviously, financial performance continues to be really strong for the company, and the balance sheet is in great shape. Regarding the buybacks, really no change to the returns-based approach that we’re taking on the share repurchases, very similar to what we discussed at Analyst Day, we’re really looking at all of our investment opportunities that we have in the company and seeing that our lowest expected returns on capital investment in the business are really associated with our regulated rate base investments, principally through our emissions reduction program, which we’ve talked about being at that 11%, 12% return range. Obviously, this year, since the beginning of the year, we’ve seen a pretty sharp decline in our valuation as natural gas prices dropped. And we saw our dividend yield expand to 6%, even while we continue to have a lot of confidence in our long-term 5% to 7% growth rate. So that looked like a pretty attractive investment opportunity relative to all of our options. So we took action to utilize some of that financial flexibility for share repurchase. And I think going forward, it will be a similar approach. We will just monitor conditions and weigh that investment opportunity up against the other investment opportunities that we have.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Gabe, this is Alan. The only thing I would add to that is we are not capped at $75 million kind of number in that there. So that just happened to be how much we could buy at the price targets that we had set based on our dividend yield and our expected growth up against our rate base returns, as we mentioned.
Gabe Moreen:
Got it. Thanks, Alan. Thanks, John. And maybe I could just ask a two-parter on growth projects. One is on the MountainWest opportunities that I think you alluded to, to the extent you can describe maybe some of those that are coming to fruition? And then second is low gas prices at all impacting, discussions with potential leg customers on that expansion or new projects?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. First of all, I’d say on regional energy access. Obviously, there is a big spread between the eastern end of the MountainWest and the Opal basis. And so obviously, that drives need for any kind of expansion that can be built there. And that has certainly shown up in – as we’ve gone out to the market. testing for support on that. So we’re really excited about that and more to come in pretty short order on that particular front. In addition to that, though, there is things like in the Uinta, particularly in the [indiscernible] area over there. A lot – that area is kind of getting cap right now based on lack of gas takeaway capacity out of the area. And so some opportunities on that front. And then as well some pretty significant conversions from coal to gas on some of the big western coal plants out there. And so we will be – we’re extremely well positioned to capture those expansions as well. So I would say we were pretty conservative in our approach to that acquisition and really thrilled with the work that, that team has been doing in terms of identifying opportunities and I think Williams strategy that we bring to those efforts will maximize the value of those opportunities in and around our assets there. So that’s what I have to offer on that. And Mike, why don’t you take the Louisiana Energy Gateway question [indiscernible]?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. The LEG project in regard to the opportunity there, I think we still see an opportunity to have that project online later this fall. We are in the permitting process for the project today. And I don’t see any obstacles to being able to achieve in service that as we have expected to come online in the 2024 timeframe. Right away acquisitions occurring there as well, and we are seeing a lot of expectations there with our producer customers and bring that online and those are take-or-pay type contracts. And so very comfortable with where we are sitting today on that project.
Gabe Moreen:
Thanks everyone.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Jake Nivasch:
Hi. This is Jake Nivasch on for Neal. Thanks for the question. Just a question on your G&P fee-based contracts, given where commodity prices are today, I just wanted to get a sense of what those contracts are looking like. Have – are the contracts at a fee floor, and if so, any way to quantify that? Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. So, was that on our gathering contracts?
Jake Nivasch:
Yes. I am sorry, on the G&P. Yes, correct.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. So, we have a number of contracts that do have exposure to natural gas pricing. We have talked about those in the past, where some of those have direct NYMEX exposure like in the Barnett, some like more about midstream at the floor underneath those. And then we have some of the Haynesville wells that have exposure as natural gas prices ratchet up, where we have peers that we haven’t publicly stated what they are. But as natural gas prices do escalate, we have an opportunity to increase our fees on those gathering rates. So, I would say, for the most part, we are very comfortable with where we stand in regard to our guidance this year and the expectation for what those triggers are in regard to our gathering rates. And I will just also remind you that we do have a lot of fee escalation in those based on inflation in disease. And so many of those have kicked in over the last several years as well. And our team has done a really good job controlling our costs, and we feel really good about where those escalators are in relation to our cost escalation being able to cover those – any cost increases that we see. And a lot of those cost increases that we are seeing are in power generation, for example, and a lot of those are pass-throughs to our customers as well. So, we don’t have exposure to that. But all-in-all, we are very comfortable with where our G&P rates are today in regard to the low natural gas prices.
Alan Armstrong:
And I would just add to that, many of the structures for these expansions that we are doing, and you heard me mention several expansions in our – in my prepared remarks. And those expansions tend to be backed by either MDCs, which are pretty simple, obviously, or they are backed by rate increases on the base volumes. And therefore, we are not all that exposed to the volume increases as much in terms of recovering the capital for our expansion. So, the majority of those contracts are set up that way for the expansions that I referenced.
Jake Nivasch:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Joe from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Tristan Richardson:
Hey guys. This is Tristan with Scotiabank. Can you hear me okay?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks. Thanks Tristan.
Tristan Richardson:
Appreciate it. Appreciate your comments, Alan, on Gulf of Mexico and bringing Taggart online, but maybe kind of curious just a general update on the progress of sort of the big five coming online in ‘24, just general progress and an update there would be great.
Alan Armstrong:
Mike, do you want to take that?
Michael Dunn:
Yes, sure, I will take that. No real change from what you have seen in our published materials in regarding our projects. We have made really good progress on the Whale projects, in the Western Gulf of Mexico, we have the offshore pipeline that was installed last fall, and we just recently installed the deck modifications on the platform that brings the gas and oil to shore there, and that was just done last week. So, that work is progressing with an outage there as we speak. And all-in-all, we feel very good about that work. The Markham processing plant modifications are underway as well. So, we will be well in front of when the producers are expected to come online in 2024 for that project. The Shenandoah project in our Discovery system is also going very well. A lot of the offshore work by the producers is underway. And our onshore work has been fully permitted and that we are working under the construction projects also. And so nothing has changed on the timing of those. We hope that producers will accelerate those, and we will be ready for that if they choose to do so. It’s really up to their schedules right now as to when they bring those online. But like for the Whale project, they have wanted us done well in advance of their offshore activities. And so we are prepared to go early if they choose to do so. And that’s where we stand today on those. But really good progress on the non-CapEx tie-backs and the opportunities that we have had out there also.
Alan Armstrong:
And we also – Tristan, as you know on the Chevron Ballymore project, we finalized contracts with the producers on vale more this quarter as well. Of course, that doesn’t require you need capital on our part, but a significant accomplishment to finalize that deal, particularly with the other producer working interest producer on that platform. So, things have gone – as Michael said, things have gone very well out there and great to have the primary risk for us was that offshore installation on well, and the majority of that risk has been put behind us, so really great work by the team. It’s nice and the team is doing such a great job that you don’t hear anything mentioned by it because things have been going so smoothly on that front.
Tristan Richardson:
Okay. Thanks Alan. And then maybe just on LEG. I appreciate the updates there. But maybe curious on how things are progressing on the carbon side of that project. Do we need to be in sort of a primacy in Class 6 world for that component of LEG to go forward, or maybe just an update on what you are seeing on that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, sure. Thanks. This is Chad again. That’s also progressing well alongside the gathering project. And what we see today is an interest in the ability to move CO2 along that pipe and then remove the CO2 and sequester it. It is not dependent upon primacy. I mean we are prepared to work likely with third-parties for the sequestration, but the timing of the project, we think can work full based on kind of the existing permitting process, but also I think primacy just makes things that much more efficient in Louisiana. I think there has been some recent progress in Louisiana that looks like primacy is likely to be near-term. But we don’t think the project is dependent upon achieving that. And right now, the project is on track and looking positive.
Tristan Richardson:
Great. Thanks Chad. Appreciate it guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis from Citi. Your line is open.
Spiro Dounis:
Thanks operator. Good morning team. First question, going to upstream actually, it sounds like not an urgent need to monetize those assets, of course. But as I recall, you have been pretty close to an asset sales in the last year. So, just curious where does that process sit right now? And is that forward curve strong enough to maybe incent some buyers to come in here at attractive levels for you?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Spiro, I would just say, no, obviously, we haven’t kept that any secret that we are interested in monetizing those. I would say, certainly Haynesville because it’s proven up its capabilities here in short order with great work by the Southern team there of developing that acreage so fast. But really the way that deal is structured, our capital has been required has fallen off dramatically on that as that reversion continues out there on those interests. And so I would just say that the – we have been pretty clear with the market that if somebody wants to put an attractive offer on the table, we are very interested in those discussions, and we certainly have been and we will continue to entertain offers on that. But we are not in a passive sell mode. And so we are not going to sell at the bottom of the market. On the Wamsutter piece, obviously, we have got a lot more development out there to prove up to really, I think get the volumes where we need that to be for the benefit of our midstream business. So, I would still say there is still some execution to be done on the Wamsutter development out there and again, the right party came along that could convince us that they could develop that aggressively and that would be great. But I think there is probably better value right now and improving up the opportunity out there and getting the volumes up for the benefit of all of our downstream business. If you realize, if you think about how much margin we make off the Wamsutter area that is clearly our highest unit margin area for us because not only do we obviously have interest in the production, but we also have the condensate gathering. We have the gas gathering. We have the gas processing. We have the NGL takeaway. We are soon that likely have the gas take away via the MountainWest acquisition. So, a lot of coupons to clip off of the production out there that makes that a very valuable area for us to get developed, and we want to make sure that, that occurs. So anyway, that’s the way we are thinking about it for sale signs out I would say, but we are not selling that at the bottom of the market.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. That’s helpful color. Thanks for that Alan. Second one, just wanted to come back to the guidance quickly for a second. I think back at the Investor Day, you have mentioned that the guidance contemplated a producer slowdown just given where you saw the natural gas price at the time and it looks like, to some degree, that’s been proving out. We have seen a handful of announcements now on some slowing of activity, I guess I am just curious, compared to what you were thinking in February, how does that kind of track to your expectations?
John Porter:
Yes. I can take that, Spiro and others can chime in. But I think as we went into Analyst Day, establishing our guidance, we went in with a pretty sober outlook for the year and embedded some pretty conservative estimates for what we thought would be happening with our producer customers. Since then, we have ran another bottoms-up forecast and continue to feel good about the guidance.
Spiro Dounis:
Perfect. Helpful color guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sunil Sibal from Seaport Global. Your line is open.
Sunil Sibal:
Yes. Hi. Good morning everybody. So, my first question was related to some recent comments from the administration, especially with regard to gas infrastructure. I was just curious, is that something that you also picked up on based on your discussions with the administration. And then is there a specific opportunity for Williams to capitalize on that note?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. No, great point, and we were thrilled to see Secretary Granholm’s letter in support of Mountain Valley Pipeline and recognizing the critical role that natural gas plays and particularly the more we want to electrify and the faster we go at electrification, more dependent we are going to be on natural gas to help support that. And so I was really pleased to see Secretary Granholm’s acknowledgment of that. I will tell you, we certainly have been close to that, but the credit, I think there is due to a few things. One, the utility industry has become pretty clear in this last quarter that to try to deliver on electrification and the inflation reduction at goals that we are going to have to have more natural gas capacity to help support that and help support backup of electrification. So, the utility industry and a lot of the utility leadership, Lynn Good as I think a prime example from Duke have been pretty clear about the importance of natural gas. And I think their messages have hit the mark with the administration on that front. But as well, I would tell you that, folks like Senator Manchin, who certainly understands energy very well, has been very vocal about the need for getting the permitting reform done as well. And so there are a lot of people that are starting to kind of move beyond what is just politically correct and what is popular to say and getting down to the cold hard facts of physics and science and realizing that we are going to have natural gas to be able to carry out our goals around emission reduction and support aggressive electrification of our grid. So, we are really thrilled to see that. I am glad you picked up on that as well. And I think that bodes very well for the natural gas industry here domestically and abroad.
Sunil Sibal:
Got it. And then on the LNG marketing strategy, so we will kind of stay tuned to updates coming up on that. But I was just curious, is that marketing strategy more driven by supply push currently, or is it more of a demand pull in the international markets?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Thanks. This is Chad. I would say it’s both. I mean one of the things that we offer and that’s unique today, if an international LNG buyer wants to buy U.S. LNG and if you think about we are the low-cost, most reliable producer of natural gas in the world. And there is a great interest in sourcing gas supplies in the United States, but the international buyer has to primarily buy LNG at domestic Henry Hub prices, indexed prices. And we have producers that we are connected to that are interested in selling a portion of their production into international markets and gain exposure to international prices. So, what we are offering is the ability for international LNG buyers that buy U.S. supplied natural gas, but to be able to buy that at an international price because our producers are interested in gaining access to international prices. So, we can be a unique bridge between domestic producers and international buyers for a product that really isn’t available broadly today because the international buyer has to buy U.S. gas at a Henry Hub index. And so that’s why we are seeing, I think really strong interest from both domestic producers that do want to gain exposure to additional markets and additional price opportunities, but also international buyers that would like to source U.S. supplies, but do so in a more native price index that they could buy again. So, it’s really a combination of both.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. If I could add to that, this is Michael. The opportunities that we are looking at also involve some pretty significant FERC regulated fee-based pipeline opportunities for the infrastructure to be built there well beyond what we are thinking about with the LEG project. So, we are certainly looking at the opportunities to build FERC regulated transmission projects associated with this wellhead water strategy.
Sunil Sibal:
Got it. And just one clarification on that, I think in the past, duration of contracts between – the duration of contracts at the international parties were looking for and what the domestic parties were looking for, there was a bit of a mismatch in that. And based on the recent discussions, do you think there is – those two are kind of closer to where they were say, a few months back?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I would say that we are not going to take large open mismatch positions. There may be some modest mismatch across the portfolio of LNG transactions. But our goal is going to be to not have a lot of speculative open positions, again kind of offer a unique product to the market and our goal would be to, for the most part, de-risk the term of those commitments. And if we do take any lesser term on a commitment to make sure that the margin that we are capturing is more than adequate to support that. But for the most part, we are targeting significant coverage and matching of the terms across the portfolio.
Sunil Sibal:
Got it. Thanks for all the color.
Operator:
Your final question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in. I just have one. You have several Mid-Atlantic demand pull projects, Commonwealth Energy connector, sell-side reliability enhancement in Carolina MarketLink. Do these also create more capacity out of Transco 165 than exists today if MVP starts up, or are those kind of low CapEx, high return opportunities that you have referenced in the past, like completely, like they are not even on the board yet?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. Jean Ann, this is Michael. I would say those are more of the latter right now. These are fairly low CapEx compression with some small lubing opportunities with really healthy returns on those projects. Anything that would be associated with NBP completion would be a much more substantial capital-intensive project opportunity that we are certainly looking at with customers. But at this time, we haven’t announced anything in that regard. But there definitely are opportunities that NBP is successful and the takeaway from Transco will ultimately be built.
Alan Armstrong:
Jean Ann, this is Alan. I would just add, I think that Michael hit that nail on the head. But we do have decision to make around NBP, because obviously, NBP is critical and that gas that would come in there is going to be searching for new market and we have got decisions to make on how to really optimize that southbound capacity if NBP gets built. If it doesn’t get built, then we have got some decisions to make around expanding southbound capacity from the Pennsylvania area on Transco along the mainline in terms of brownfield expansion along the mainline as well. So, those – that’s really what we are kind of waiting to see is how big those projects might be and it’s somewhat dependent on whether or not NBP gets built. Certainly, we think it should get finished, but it’s just getting harder and harder to predict that given the time it passed. So anyway, we are standing ready with alternatives there, but NBP, I think it is the right sensible solution for our nation, and hopefully, we see that completed.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Alan Armstrong, President and Chief Executive Officer, I will turn the call back over to you.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thank you. Well, we are really as a team, I tell you, we are really excited to deliver the quarter that we just delivered, particularly within commodity cycle that we are in and really excited about how we are set up for the future and some of the great accomplishments that team delivered this quarter as well. So, we look forward to rewarding our shareholders with more growth in the future and are very well positioned for that. So, thank you for joining us today and look forward to talking to you in the future.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Gina, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Company. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that are President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to you this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting, and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. Williams reported another great quarter, and John will walk through the details in a moment, but the punchline is that Williams delivered exceptional results in the third quarter with adjusted EBITDA up 15% compared to the same period last year, driven by strong performance across all of our core businesses and our JV upstream operations. Our natural gas strategy has proven that it can capture upside margins and weather commodity price cycles as we work to serve growing demand for clean, secure and affordable energy. These results really speak to the strength of our assets and our long-term approaches business. Williams is the most natural gas-centric large-scale midstream company around today, and there's a reason we've stuck with our natural gas-focused strategy for as long as we have. Not only is this strategy delivering in the current environment, but the signals coming from the market show that it is going to continue to deliver substantial growth for the long term as well. We expect strong fundamentals to drive attractive growth opportunities for Williams, including higher demand for U.S. LNG exports and a faster pace of coal to gas conversion with the lion's share of these projects residing along the Transco corridor. Natural gas demand across various sectors continues to increase in the face of higher natural gas prices. This speaks to the continued inelastic demand for natural gas, both here and abroad and the fact that domestic natural gas remains a bargain versus alternative fuels. We continue to see strong growth in the quarter as our quarterly natural gas gathering volumes and our contracted transmission capacity. And we're seeing progress on important projects like our Regional Energy Access project, the Louisiana Energy Gateway and other Transco projects that are currently in execution. And speaking of execution, our attractive high-return growth backlog in the Gulf of Mexico remains intact, with the six previously announced deepwater projects set to increase EBITDA by over $300 million beginning in '25. And we recently began pipelay operations on the well projects here just recently. Our business continues to fire on all cylinders, driving our financial strength and stability. And despite the current inflationary environment, we will actually see a lift in margins as many of our contracts allow for adjustments that exceed the impact of expenses. For instance, in our G&P business, our contracts are built with inflation escalators that bolster our margins in the current environment. And within our transmission business, we are able to recover cost via rate cases, which minimizes the impacts of inflation over time. I'll note that Northwest Pipeline recently reached a settlement on its rate case, and we remain on track to follow a Transco rate case in '24. The benefits of our long-term approach to business also extends to the current interest rate environment and in fact, all of our debt is fixed rate. John is going to provide some more detail on this in his section. -- but we are extremely well positioned in this current environment. Also worth noting, our business is well positioned for a recessionary environment. Recall that in 2020, Williams faced a host challenges, including rapidly declining commodity prices, major producer customer bankruptcies and impactful hurricanes in our Gulf of Mexico business. In the face of these challenges, the company still exceeded the mid of the guidance we set well before COVID raised its ugly head. Our business today remains positioned to thrive even in the face of potential recession. In fact, we announced that we expect to be near the high end of our previously raised guidance putting us on track to achieve four-year earnings per share CAGR of 22% and an EBITDA CAGR of 8%. This, again, underscores just how well our natural gas strategy is translating into solid financial results for our shareholders. And while we will not be providing our '23 guidance until the next quarterly call, there are some drivers that you should think about for '23. So let me go through those here. First of all, in the Northeast G&P business, we expect higher volume growth and higher cash flows from expansion projects that are currently underway, and many of those are nearing completion. And we do provide some details of those in the appendix. In the West G&P segment, we expect continued contributions from the large number of Haynesville expansion projects that are nearing completion and as well the Trace Midstream acquisition. But equally important are the expected contributions from our upstream JVs, which should provide incremental volume grew growth in both the Haynesville and in the Wamsutter area, proving that our strategy to fill up weight and midstream capacity is working. We expect modest growth in other basins as well, for instance, in the Eagle Ford, which has been under the radar recently. We also see a very bright spot here next year as we expect increased activity in the rich gas part of the basin to drive volumes well above the minimum volume commitment level for this segment of the business, which will be the welcome rebound and extend our earnings above that MVC level. The Eagle work should represent upside longer term as well as new capital will likely be deployed to further develop both the acreage that is already dedicated and some undedicated acreage that we are well positioned to serve. In the Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business, the growth drivers here include the incremental earnings from our recent production that has been connected along our existing deepwater assets. So this is new production that's been recently connected and it'll start to show up here in the fourth quarter, it does not include those projects that will start coming on towards the end of 2024. The NorTex acquisition is also will be included in our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business, and the continued expansion of our fee-based services on our interstate gas pipeline systems that continue to grow. Within our upstream JVs, volume growth will remain the story in the Haynesville, we've stated that we expect an ownership reversion in the first half of '23, where Williams will own 25% of the PUDs, but we will retain a 75% interest in the PDPs. I want to be clear about this. Our interest in the existing flowing production does not get reduced, only our interest in the undeveloped acreage will be reduced. We designed this structure to minimize significant volatility in earnings. And to this end, we expect the Haynesville to remain a source of growth. In the Wamsutter where we have a much larger acreage footprint, our JV is just now beginning to complete wells from the 2022 drilling program, and these will begin to contribute this volume growth next year. And this, we believe, is going to prove up the benefits of the contiguous acreage in this basin, and we're excited about the Crowheart operations out there and what we're seeing from those recent drilling and completion operations. Our primary goal of getting the volumes and cash flows up on these late and midstream assets will be more than met. But the icing on the cake has been the higher-than-expected pricing for these producing reserves. Over the longer term, we see a steady increase in net cash flows as the drilling capital obligations revert more and more to the JV operator and the benefits of the growing volumes build our midstream cash flows. Ultimately, we expect to find a long-term owner for these upstream properties that we can rely on to further grow production, which will translate into even higher midstream cash -- free cash flows for Williams. Looking beyond 2023, we believe that our projects are supportive of a 5% to 7% long-term EBITDA CAGR. The annual growth rate may fluctuate a bit given the timing of new large projects like Regional Energy Access and our big deepwater projects coming on at the end of '24 and into '25, but the bottom line is that we see a clear trajectory to continued earnings growth based on the opportunity set of our footprint today. Finally, as we think about value chain integration, we are further advancing our integrated clean energy value chain strategy. Our acquisition of the NorTex storage facility and last week's approval from the FERC for Transco's Washington storage facility in Louisiana enables us to offer competitive market-based rates to LNG, power generation and other customers in the Gulf Coast area. This will be a critical element of our wellhead-to-water strategy as this combined 110 Bcf of working gas storage and our expansive Transco network are fortified with low emissions Haynesville production from the LEG project. We are also making strides in advancing our wellhead to end-user strategy with our agreement with PennEnergy Resources to support the marketing and delivery of certified low emissions, gas that we refer to as next-gen natural gas. This agreement includes an independent third-party certification process that verifies best practices are being followed to minimize emissions and produce natural gas in the most environmentally responsible manner. This is another exciting step to grow the delivery of next-gen gas to markets across the U.S. as well as overseas. So with that, I'll pause and turn it over to John to walk through the quarter and our year-to-date results, and then we'll open it up for your questions. John?
John Porter :
Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 2 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance. Overall, 2022 financial performance continues to be quite strong. Beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw a 15% year-over-year increase for the third quarter and a 12% increase for the first nine months of '22 versus '21. As we'll see on the next couple of slides, our adjusted EBITDA growth has been led by our core large-scale Natural Gas Transmission, and Gathering and Processing businesses, complemented nicely by growth in our upstream joint ventures. Our adjusted EPS increased just over 37% for the quarter and 34% year-to-date. Available funds from operations, AFFO, which is basically our cash flow from operations less working capital fluctuation, the non-controlling interest cash flows grew in line or better than adjusted EBITDA at 15% year-over-year for the quarter or 18% for the nine-month period. Also, you see our dividend coverage on this page based on AFFO was 2.4x for third quarter and 2.29x year-to-date. Our debt to adjusted EBITDA metric continues to improve based on our strong growth in adjusted EBITDA and our capital investment discipline, now reaching 3.68x versus last year's 4.04x. So now let's move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our adjusted EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, the third quarter built nicely on the strong start we've seen this year with 15% growth reflecting the combined effect of the performance of our core business and upside from our upstream joint ventures. Walking now from last year's $1.420 billion to this year's $1.637 billion, we start with our upstream joint venture operations that are included in our Other segment, which were up $60 million. Since our first new production in the Haynesville came online in April of this year, we've seen a rapid ramp in volumes that will continue through the remainder of the year. As Alan mentioned, the strategic purpose of our upstream joint ventures is to fuel growth in our core related gathering assets, and that's certainly what we see happening in 2022. Shifting now to our core business performance. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business improved $41 million or 6% due to improved contributions from both Transco and our Gulf of Mexico businesses. Transco saw higher revenues, largely from the Leidy South expansion project, which came online in phases last year. Gulf of Mexico was significantly higher in '22, due in part to the lack of hurricane-related impacts that occurred in 2021. Operating and maintenance costs were higher, driven in part by higher maintenance activities but we are tracking very close to plan through the first nine months of the year. Our Northeast G&P business increased $22 million or 5%, driven by top line Gathering and Processing revenue growth on slightly lower volumes. Gathering and Processing rate growth was supported by a combination of factors, including higher commodity-based rates, annual fee escalations and other expansion-related fee increases that more than offset the lower cost of service rates at our Bradford franchise. Overall, Northeast volumes were 10.8 Bcf per day and roughly in line with our current forecast for total 3Q volumes. We continue to expect an increase from this volume level for the fourth quarter. But as we've mentioned in past calls, our '22 plan for the Northeast has always been higher EBITDA versus 2021 on pretty flat volume growth. However, as Alan mentioned, we remain well positioned to resume stronger volume and EBITDA growth in the Northeast in 2023, driven by several expansion and optimization projects. Shifting now to the West, which saw another impressive quarter of year-over-year growth, up $80 million or 31% over 2021. I should mention that $27 million of the $80 million was attributed to our Trace Midstream acquisition, which closed on April 29 this year. So even without Trace, the West still increased $53 million or 21%. In the West, we continue to see upside from our commodity price exposed rates, especially in the Barnett and Haynesville as well as substantially higher volumes in the Haynesville that drove a 12% overall increase in volumes for the West and that's excluding the Trace acquisition. Next, we saw a $4 million or 12% increase for our Gas & NGL Marketing Services business. This increase was despite taking a $54 million lower of cost or market adjustment to our gas and NGL inventories in September of this year. Generally speaking, most of this adjustment, which was associated with our gas and storage will result in higher margins when those products are sold out of inventory late this year or early next year. So again, another strong quarter with 15% growth in EBITDA, driven by core business performance and upside in our upstream joint venture operations. Let's move to Slide 4 and look at the year-to-date comparison. Through the first nine months of '22, we've now generated 12% growth in adjusted EBITDA over 2021, three strong consecutive quarters for this year. So stepping now from last year's $4.152 billion to this year's $4.644 billion, starting with the $77 million of first quarter 2021 winter storm benefits that we're showing here in gray, and then moving to the $182 million contribution from our Midstream operations which were Wamsutter related in the first quarter of '22, and then begin to have a more significant Haynesville component in the second and third quarters. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business has seen 4% growth year-to-date, driven by Transco's Leidy South expansion project and strong first quarter '22 seasonal revenues and also higher Gulf of Mexico results due to less hurricane-related impacts in '22 versus '21, partially offset by higher operating and maintenance costs. The Northeast G&P business has now seen 6% growth year-to-date, driven by higher rates on overall flat volumes, as previously discussed. The West has seen an impressive 27% growth year-to-date, driven by higher commodity base rates, but also a strong 11% overall volume growth, excluding the Trace acquisition. Finally, our Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment is up $32 million, driven by favorable commodity margins as well as the new contributions from the Sequent acquisition that closed on July 1, 2021, and the year-to-date comparison was also unfavorably impacted by lower cost or market adjustments on inventories as discussed in the third quarter comparison, which as we discussed, should result in higher margins in the future. So an impressive $491 million or 12% increase to land us with over $4.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA through the first nine months of the year. Before I turn it back over to Alan, I'll offer a few thoughts for full year 2022 financial guidance. As we previously announced, based on strong third quarter performance and expectations for the fourth quarter, we anticipate full year adjusted EBITDA will be near the high end of our previously announced guidance range of $6.1 billion to $6.4 billion, which implies a strong fourth quarter. We see multiple contributors to this expected strong finish to the year, including continued growth in our upstream joint ventures, but also growth across our other business segments versus our third quarter results. One other note regarding the third quarter, you probably noticed in our 10-Q that we did initiate share repurchases in September. As we discussed on our second quarter call, we stand ready to take action on share repurchases, and we see a pullback in our valuation, and that's what we did in September. Our share buyback principles center around a returns-based approach considering our current equity yield plus a level of expected growth in the business. We are more confident than ever in the long-term growth of our business, and so we remain ready to purchase additional shares as an important element of our capital allocation strategy. Debt financing costs have also been topical lately with the sharp rise we've seen in borrowing costs. We've included some helpful information on our well-positioned debt portfolio in the appendix, but I'll briefly touch on a few key facts. First off, we have an entirely fixed rate debt portfolio with an average rate of 4.78%, and a weighted average maturity of 12.2 years. Second, following our well-timed August debt issuance and subsequent call of $850 million of 2023 notes recently in October, we now only have $600 million of maturities in 2023. And finally, we will continue to enjoy excellent financial flexibility with our $3.75 billion credit facility. So again, with our expectations to finish 2022 near the high end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance, this would amount to over 13.5% growth versus 2021 and a four-year CAGR of about 8%, driven by continued growth in our core business as well as contributions from our Trace acquisition and upstream JV operations. So with that, I'll pass it back to Alan for closing remarks. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, great. Thanks, John. And I'll close by reiterating my remarks at the top of the call that quarter after quarter, we continue to demonstrate that we have built a core business that has steady predictable growth and is resilient in the face of multiple macroeconomic conditions. In fact, this makes the 27th quarter in a row that we've either met or exceeded the Street consensus. A careful allocation of capital has delivered improving returns on capital employed. And in fact, this is a 21.7% return on invested capital as we've showed in recent presentations. We delivered a very strong balance sheet and we have a growing dividend with best-in-class coverage. Our long-haul pipes are in the right places, serving the right markets, our formidable gathering assets are in the low-cost basins that will be called on to meet gas demand as it continues to grow for decades, and our Sequent platform is providing infrastructure optimization services that create value for Williams and our customers while mitigating downside risk in these volatile and fast-growing markets. You've heard me say before that we are bullish on natural gas because of the critical role it plays and will continue to play in both our countries and the world's pursuit of a clean energy future. But even more so, we are also bullish on America's ability to lead on all fronts when it comes to clean, reliable and affordable energy. The United States is positioned better than any other country to solve the energy crisis and the climate crisis we're facing around the world. But I'll stand on my soapbox again and remind you that access to our abundant and low-cost natural gas reserves here in the U.S. is dependent on having the appropriate infrastructure to move energy where it is needed. We're seeing and feeling today the impact of inadequate infrastructure both here at home and especially in Europe, with consumers bearing the brunt of these actions in the form of high energy prices high utility bills and energy-driven inflation. The good news is that we have a solution that is readily available, a solution that will support global emissions reductions keep energy costs affordable and grow our nation's competitiveness, enabling the efficient unobstructive build-out of our nation's energy infrastructure to ensure delivery of natural gas is foundational to the U.S.' leadership on greenhouse gas emissions reductions and energy security. And we at Williams will proudly continue our efforts to strongly advocate for actionable energy policy solutions and permitting reform in the days, months and years ahead. And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet :
Just want to kind of start off with the Haynesville here and this new project that you talked about in the slides regarding carbon capture. I was just wondering if you could touch base what moved that forward at this point was that the higher 45Qs coming from IRA here that get over the finish line? And also, I guess, how big could the scope of this project be over time?
Chad Zamarin :
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. This is Chad. Yes, the IRA and the increase in 45Q credit is certainly a benefit that helps that project move forward. The scope of that project is alongside our Louisiana Energy Gateway project as we're gathering large volumes in the Haynesville. We'll be taking the CO2 that today is invented in the basin into the pipeline, and we'll also be gathering CO2 from third parties and moving that CO2 to the Southern end of the Louisiana Energy Gateway gathering project. And at that location, we're going to install treating facilities that will remove the CO2 and transport it to a sequestration site so that it can be permanently stored underground. We see somewhere around the potential for 2 million tons of annual CO2 to be captured and sequestered. And we think that could increase over time as we continue to further develop that project. So we feel really good about it, and we're focused on bringing that online alongside our Lake project, which could be in service as early as Q4 of '24.
Jeremy Tonet :
Got it. Very helpful there. And just wanted to pivot, if I could, to the producing assets in the Haynesville. It seems like the ramp in production there is quite strong, and I think it might kind of reach what you guys were hoping for when you attain the assets, getting into a growth trajectory that fill your pipes to serve that purpose there? And if it's on that trajectory, does that kind of make you guys think about potential time line to divest those assets if they are delivering the volume utilization that you're looking for?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, Jeremy, I just -- let me be clear on that. First of all, I think there's been a lot of confusion out there in the market on the forms of those contracts. We expect production net -- our net interest production to continue to grow in '23. And so we have been very pleased with GeoSouthern's efforts out there. They've been a great operator and they've really been hitting it out of the park, so to speak, in their efforts and the performance on wells, both on the cost side as well as delivery side. So we're really excited about their activities out there. So we do -- just to be clear, we do expect our net interest production to continue to grow into '23. And so the people have been talking about a decline relative to the reversion. Our interest in the undeveloped acreage declines, but not our interest in the existing flow of production. And in fact, the nice thing about that is our capital obligations really fall back really hard in '23 after that reversion occurred because we won't be continuing to have to invest in drilling operations there. So -- but in terms of looking for -- to sell the asset, we certainly -- that is our long-term objective and continues to be. And we think the acreage is certainly proving itself up to exceed it. I would tell you, though, it's got a long ways to go from where it is today in terms of total volume growth in that area. In fact, really just starting to scratch the surface of that inventory in the area. So yes, we certainly have our eyes and ears open, but no, we are not getting near the peak of the volumes out there at all. And so it's really playing out on its exact we like we intended accept that we've had this nice, big upside of pricing here in the current environment. And the volumes this year have been -- are outperforming where we thought they would be. So great news really kind of all the way around there in terms of upside, and it's going to drive a lot of free cash flow into '23 and '24.
Jeremy Tonet :
Got it. And just a quick follow-up on that. Is there a certain production level you are looking for before you would entertain divesting those assets?
Alan Armstrong :
No. I would just say, we've got -- there's a lot more room to grow out there than what people are expecting, I think. I think we continue to be impressed by other is informing us on in terms of kind of well beyond the current reduction level. So I would just say we're not waiting, if you will, necessarily. We just want to be assured that the production growth will continue on the pace kind of if we're not the owner. And I think certainly, the alignment we've had with GeoSouthern out there has been productive for both of us. But no, we're not waiting on any particular volume number. We think the evidence is pretty clear in terms of the performance out there at this point. So we think the viability of that acreage has been pretty well proven up already just in terms of the performance of GeoSouthern channel already.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish :
In light of the NorTex acquisition, I was just wondering if you could elaborate on the benefits of gas storage right now. Do you think storage has become more valuable? Do you think spreads could widen out? How does this fit with Sequent? And then finally, do you envision building out more gas storage assets organically or doing more acquisitions in this space?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. Thanks for the question. And first of all, we were -- Sequent was a sizable customer there to NorTex, and we were looking at their process as they were going through that to and realizing what they could charge for that storage. And frankly, we were pretty impressed and from our perspective, what they could have charged for storage in that area and recognize that we thought that rates could probably be driven up there just because of the value of that storage in these more volatile markets. And we continue to believe that today the load from the variability of power generation, gas-fired power generation as well as LNG, we think is going to continue to drive value for natural gas storage. We're certainly seeing that as Sequent was a buyer of storage, and used to be a large buyer of storage. We understand that market very well, and we think there's a lot of value there. That's first thing. Second thing, one thing that I commented on in my opening comments that we're excited about as well is we did get an order from the FERC last week to be able to put market-based rates in place on our Washington Gas storage. We still have a lot of work to do on that. So we have to go through the process of filing those rates, but we did get a very important order out of FERC last week to be able to go to market-based rates for our Washington Gas storage. And so that is a very large deal for us. That's about 75 Bcf a day of working gas storage. And so that's -- that gives us about 110 Bcf a day of storage in the Gulf Coast area between NorTex and Washington Gas storage. So yes, we are pretty committed to this concept. We think there's a lot of value there and finding ways to extract the real value out of our current assets and out of NorTex is certainly going to be a mission for us in the years looking forward.
Praneeth Satish :
Great. And just switching gears. If we -- if I look at the financial metrics this year, the leverage is good and EBITDA is on pace to grow 13% or 14%. But on the capital return side, the dividend is only up 4%, and there's been some buybacks, but it's been fairly modest. So I guess my question is, is the strong performance this year influence how you look at capital return heading into 2023?
Alan Armstrong :
Well, that's a great question. And the answer is yes. It certainly does influence how we look, and we recognize we're outpacing both our AFFO and our EBITDA have been outpacing our dividend growth, and we certainly recognize that. And so I would just say, we're going to make sure that our dividend is durable, but we also -- we've also said that we're going to continue to grow our dividend along with our cash flow. So it's a great question. The Board level decision that we made later this year and into next year, that decision will get made. But we certainly have the coverage and the cash flow growth to be able to increase the growth rate in our dividend at this point.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Chase Mulvehill with Bank of America.
Chase Mulvehill :
I guess just a quick question and kind of want to follow-up. You mentioned a little bit of this during the prepared remarks, but just kind of looking forward to 2023, thinking about some of the puts and takes. I mean, obviously, when we look at '23 versus '22, you've got full year of some of the M&A you did. You got the Springridge gathering, expansion and some Northeast gathering, expansion. And then you've got some Gulf of Mexico stuff that starts up and you probably have some higher E&P volumes. So I guess just -- am I missing anything there when we think about growth opportunities? And then kind of offsets, how should we think about the offsets for '23? I mean the curve is backward dated, but the curve is not always right, but just kind of how should we think about the offsets in '23?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, great question. I think you've laid that out pretty well actually. I would say the other thing that we didn't enjoy this year that we will enjoy next year is the investments that we've been putting into the Wamsutter JV this year. I mentioned, we have -- we're continuing the drilling program, but we are just now starting the completions effort out there. And so the benefit of that those drilling capital we've been spending up there this year will really start to play out in '23 as well. So that's a key issue. As I mentioned, the Eagle Ford, we're seeing some pretty rapid development going on in the rich gas that will see the MVC out there. So that's attractive. In terms of the headwinds, I certainly think pricing is a consideration, but I think it's also important to realize the amount of hedges that we had on this year that kept us from enjoying extremely high gas prices this year. And so I think if you look year-to-year, they're probably not likely going to be that big a spread. I would say we're strip. So that's probably the primary headwind. But from what we're seeing right now, that is going to be dramatically overcome by volumes in the E&P space. And so yes, we could see lower price, but our volumes, I think, will surprise people to the upside next year.
Chase Mulvehill :
That makes sense. As a kind of -- I guess, maybe a somewhat related follow-up. On Slide 24, you show an 8% increase in power demand year-to-date. I obviously don't do too much on the power side, but could you kind of explain kind of what's happening there? And how sustainable do you think that, that growth is in power demand as we kind of look forward?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. I would just say we continue to be surprised. I would say that was probably, as we mentioned earlier in the year, probably our biggest surprise has been the resilience of gas demand in the face of higher price. And I think what we learned was that the utilities and the power generators are not really able to flip back to coal for a number of reasons. One, they don't have the long-term contracts, a lot of those expired. And two, obviously, the price of coal has come up right alongside gas. And so we just did not see the flip back to coal-fired generation, we would have expected at this kind of pricing environment. Obviously, I think it's -- what you're seeing is a result of the utilities. And I don't think this is going to end anytime soon, where as renewables come on, the backup for that is going to be natural gas, and it's going to continue to take coal-fired generation out of the space and we're going to continue to see increases. So if you're listening to the rhetoric in the market and in the media, you would think that gas volumes were going to decline dramatically, if you saw the RFPs for new services coming in our door, you would think otherwise. And so I think what we are seeing is continued strong demand from gas-fired generation from the utilities, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. So we're -- we remain bullish not because of rhetoric, but because of what we're seeing for request for long-term services coming in the door.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen :
Maybe if I could ask another question about '23 and just talking about how to frame CapEx. There's clearly some projects finishing up some bigger ones like Regional Energy Access and legs that are out there where maybe the spend gets spread over '23, '24. So I'm just wondering how to think about growth CapEx within the context of what it was this year and some of these longer-term projects?
Micheal Dunn :
Gabe, it's Micheal. Yes. I would expect, as we talked about in previous calls, to see some lumpiness in our growth CapEx. As you indicated, we've got regional NG access that we'll be ramping up construction next year, the whale project, although we started construction on that will be ongoing as well in 2023. So -- and obviously, LEG will be ramping up as well. So those are some pretty large capital outlays that will be ramping up next year. But as we've indicated in the past, we're working real hard to keep our growth CapEx in line with previous years. And so you think about where we're at this year to $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion level, that's what we're targeting on typical years going forward, but you will see some lumpiness when these big projects start construction. So you can anticipate that being a 2023 story with these big projects coming on. But we're still very focused on managing that growth CapEx to a level that's about $1.2 billion on average per year.
Gabriel Moreen :
And this might be another one for you. But in the NWP rate case, it seems like you achieved sort of a modernization rider or there's some language about that. Can you talk about that and whether that's going to be significant and also whether that can be a precedent for Transco in the upcoming rate case?
Micheal Dunn :
Yes. Great question. We do have our uncontested settlement in front of the FERC right now for approval. We would expect to receive that before the end of the year, but those rates into effect next year and a great outcome by the team there achieving an emissions reduction program rider, as you indicated. And I would say is that certainly a good framework or pattern for us to go into the Transco rate case with that same thought process in front of us where we have a lot of compression on both Northwest Pipeline and the Transco system that we can replace that make sense to replace in many of these areas where we're in non-attainment or being challenged by some of the regulators like in the Pacific Northwest to improve the emissions profile our units. And it's just a great opportunity for us to make an investment in our regulated business. And I would say the Northwest pipeline opportunity is certainly not as great as the Transco opportunity for capital deployment there just with the number of units that we have on the Northwest Pipeline system versus Transco. The horsepower on Transco was a significant order of magnitude higher than Northwest, but certainly, a great opportunity there and very well received by our customers on Northwest pipeline for us to go and implement these emissions reductions.
Gabriel Moreen :
Great. And maybe if I could squeeze just a quick last one. It seems like you got a ruling in the energy transfer litigation, they're appealing. Is there any timing as far as how long that appeal may take to play out?
Lane Wilson:
Yes. This is Lane Wilson. We would anticipate sometime probably late second quarter, early third quarter, maybe even early fourth quarter, depending upon how quickly the Delaware’s work moves. Yes, 2023.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Brian Reynolds with UBS.
Brian Reynolds :
Maybe just talk a little bit about a follow-up on capital allocation and the growth CapEx. With the acquisitions of Trace and NorTex, -- could you just maybe talk about what the base business kind of growth CapEx run rate is going forward now?
Micheal Dunn :
Yes. Sure, this is Micheal. As I indicated, we think it's going to be about $1.2 billion, very similar to what we see this year on average going forward. But as I've talked about on previous calls, we do have some lumpiness anticipated there when these larger projects start to ramp up construction, retail energy access. We'll be ramping up construction next year. The Lake project will also be starting construction next year and then the Whale project in the Gulf of Mexico, will be in some pretty significant construction activities as well next year, although that has started this year. So as always, it will be lumpy, but we're very focused on being efficient in regard to our growth capital. So I would expect you would see a $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion average CapEx on our growth side for the foreseeable future.
Brian Reynolds :
Great. And then maybe as a follow-up on some of the upstream business. You guys outlaid some of the hedging profile that you have into 2023. Kind of curious if you can just give an update about where you're comfortable like hedging as a percentage of the overall volumes expected just given some weakness in recent nat gas pricing just given some record U.S. nat gas production and some constraints on the LNG side?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. Thank you. Well, we do have some favorable hedges on right now for '23. I think we've got around 15% or so for the year that's on right now. And we'll continue to look at that opportunistically. I would tell you that it's really nice having our Sequent team that is joined at the hip when it comes to making those decisions and having a real vantage point on the market. And what they're seeing as well. So I would just say we will continue to be somewhat opportunistic about that, but we certainly will continue -- just like we did this year, we'll continue to take on hedges as we see fit. But I would say we don't have any particular formula or a requirement for that. It's simply a way of when we see opportunities in the market and we see things flare up in the market, we'll hedge into that. So I would say it's fairly opportunistic, but with no particular requirement for a minimum level of hedges to be put on.
Brian Reynolds :
Right. Would second half '22 be a good kind of parameter of where we should expect it going forward, or I guess, remains to be seen.
Alan Armstrong :
I'm sorry, I didn't quite follow that last part.
Brian Reynolds :
Whether the 50% hedging profile that you kind of had outlaid for the second half of '22, is that kind of a fair estimate for '23 or more to…?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I mean, I would just say it's very dependent on what the markets do versus how we're seeing the fundamentals looking forward. The good news is we have such a good read on both what's going on in production because we gather in 15 different basins. So we have a very good read about what's going on in production as well as we see a good read from the markets as well that we use that to inform our fundamentals. And if we see the pricing obviously get fair relative to those fundamentals, then we will hedge. So again, I don't -- I wouldn't put a particular percentage on it as much as it is us looking at the fundamentals versus the pricing in the forward market.
Chad Zamarin :
Alan, may be worth mentioning that '23, we'll have less to prove up as far as volumes. In '22, we did have the growth in the Haynesville that outperformed our expectations, which was great. But in '23, we've really proven up volumes. And so we've got much less volume risk coming into '23 as a result of the success we've seen in '22.
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, that's a really good point that some of our reluctance to hedge at the beginning of '22 was based on us not wanting to hedge until we actually saw that reduction flowing given the volatility in the markets and certainly didn't want to get caught short in an upswing in the market. So next year, we'll have less of that. In the Haynesville, we'll have less of that volume growth risk, not so much in the Wamsutter.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global.
Sunil Sibal :
I just wanted to go back to the opening comments regarding 5% to 7% EBITDA growth. So is that kind of the run rate we can assume based on your asset base now for the next few years?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. That is correct. Obviously, as we mentioned, we've been overachieving on that a bit. We've had that 5% to 7% growth rate out there for quite some time, and that was assuming a $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion capital program back when we first established that level of growth rate. And I would just say we've got some efficiencies coming into like '25, where we've got some very large growth on a limited amount of capital in the deepwater, that gives us some very high return investments because, in some cases, we're being reimbursed for the capital or the producer is providing the capital upfront on some of those big deepwater projects. So obviously, those returns are kind of outsized there and will provide better growth. But in general, as Micheal said, we're expecting this $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion capital, and we believe that kind of investment will continue to propel the 5% to 7% growth rate.
Sunil Sibal :
Okay. And then regards to the Eagle Ford, I think you mentioned you're seeing some activity pick up there. I was curious what kind of gas or NGL prices kind of support this uptick in activity? And do you anticipate this activity uptick to kind of go into 2023 and further out?
Chad Zamarin :
Yes. I would just say that the Eagle Ford is highly economic right now. Chesapeake has been allocating more of their capital to their gas-focused areas and they have been out in the market talking about the potential to to settle their Eagle Ford position. But we see both on the rich gas side and on the oil side of that system. We have really two different systems there in oil driven system and a rich gas gathering system. And as Alan mentioned, the rich gas gathering system has already been ramping up in activity and is now exceeding the MVCs. And we're seeing, I think, very strong economics behind the oil the oil side of that asset as well. And so we would expect that you'll continue to see increased activity on the oil side as well. So that's a very highly economic asset and really has just been not the #1 priority for kind of the current producer there.
Operator:
Our final question will come from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.
John Mackay :
I wanted to pick up on the Haynesville again. You guys are obviously adding a lot of your own volumes. You're talking about adding a lot of gathering capacity over the next 12 months. Can you maybe just share some of your thoughts on how we're thinking about takeaway out of the basin and maybe differential impacts on your upstream business, particularly on the next nine months until we -- or next while until we get LEG on.
Micheal Dunn :
Sure. Thanks for the question. This is Micheal again. I would say we're very well positioned there with our gathering systems being connected to about nine different outlet pipelines out of the basin and having Sequent alongside us evaluating those takeaway opportunities has been very helpful. I believe they were well in front of the -- any anticipated constraints out there in front of the market and really went out and acquired some capacity out of the basin that made sure that not only our customers' volumes could blow, but our partnership upstream volumes could flow as well. So we feel very comfortable about our position in getting our gas out of the basin as well as our customers' gas out of there. We helped a lot of our customers make sure that they had opportunities to move their gas out of the basin based on what we were seeing with Sequent. So we feel really good about that. We're certainly working to get the Lake project up and running as fast as possible to help make sure that none of those constraints arise for our customers or our partnership.
John Mackay :
Maybe one last one for me. you just walk us through, again, final steps on Regional Energy Access? I know we're kind of looking for a few things from the FERC, but more importantly, a couple of things on the state side, maybe just a refresh there would be helpful.
Micheal Dunn :
Yes, Micheal once again answering this question. We are awaiting the FERC 7(c) certificate. We would expect to have that before the end of the year. The final EIS was issued in July, just as a reminder, that was a very favorable EIS for the project. The other remaining outstanding permits are the air permit. This is a Title V modification for Section 505 in New Jersey. Went through the whole public comment process, and this is a great opportunity for us to once again deploy our emissions reduction program here. We take off some existing compression and replace it with a much better emissions profile. So very favorably received by the state. And certainly, we saw some very positive comments there in the public comment meetings, overwhelming support for that. So we expect that air permit by the end of this year as well. And then finally, the core engineers will issue a 404 permit. This is a water quality permit. We would expect that probably in the first quarter of '23, but it could come as early as the fourth quarter here in '22. We've already had our 401 water certification in the State of Pennsylvania that's been in hand for a number of months now, and no technical issues remaining on the 404 permit just waiting for the process to play out. So those are the 3 outstanding things we're waiting on Regional Energy Access for right now. And just as a reminder, we positioned this project very well to avoid any controversial permits and certainly position that air permit in New Jersey to be favorably received with deployment of new compression there to take off some old vintage reciprocating compression.
Operator:
At this time, I'll turn the call over to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong :
Okay. Well, thank you all very much for the great questions and appreciate your continued interest in the company. We're very excited about the way the business is running right now, and we're extremely well positioned for growth in '23 as we discussed, and we look forward to talking to you at our 4Q earnings call and laying out in more detail what '23 looks like. So thanks again for joining us this morning.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Joanne, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in the Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation material. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. While we're here today to talk about another quarter of steady, predictable growth, thanks to a long-term commitment to our natural gas-focused strategy and continued crisp execution against that strategy. We saw strong earnings growth in our core businesses and our upstream operations. And the health of our businesses was also demonstrated by equally strong gathering and transportation volumes during the quarter. Importantly, we expect continued earnings growth in our core G&P and gas transmission businesses as our teams are delivering great execution on our expansion projects. We're also staying laser focused on doing what's right to ensure sustainable operational performance. We're pleased to share our progress in our 2021 sustainability report that was published just last week. I hope you'll take some time to read the report as it really is a testament to the hard work of our entire organization and their passion for doing things the right way. I'll highlight a few things from the report in our key investor focus areas segment. But for now, let me turn things over to John for a review of our second quarter and our year-to-date results. John?
John Porter:
Thanks, Alan. Starting here on Slide 1 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance. Overall, 2022 financial performance continues to be quite strong. Beginning with EBITDA, we saw a 14% year-over-year increase for the second quarter and a 10% increase for the first half of '22 versus the first half of '21. As we'll see on the next couple of slides, our EBITDA growth has been led by our core large-scale natural gas Transmission, and Gathering and Processing businesses complemented nicely by growth in our upstream joint ventures. Our adjusted EPS increased 48% for the quarter and 29% year-to-date. Available funds from operations, AFFO, grew more than EBITDA, continuing the trend of strong growth in this measure, up 23% year-over-year for the quarter or 19% year-to-date. Also, you see our dividend coverage on this page based on AFFO was 2.19x for second quarter and slightly better at 2.24x year-to-date. Our debt-to-adjusted EBITDA metric continues to improve based on our strong growth in EBITDA and our capital investment discipline now reaching 3.82x versus last year's 4.13x. So now let's move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, the second quarter built nicely on the strong start we've seen this year with 14% growth, reflecting the combined effect of the performance of our core business and upside from our upstream joint ventures. Walking now from last year's $1.317 billion to this year's $1.496 billion, we start with our upstream joint venture operations included in our Other segment, which were up $66 million. I will point out that we've added a new page to our analyst package for this segment. And in that supplemental information, we've included our net upstream sales volumes, which were just under 200 million cubic feet a day for the Haynesville and Wamsutter properties for the second quarter of '22. Since our first new production in the Haynesville came online in April of this year, we've seen a rapid ramp in volumes that will continue through the remainder of the year. Shifting now to our core business performance. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business improved $4 million, primarily at Transco and largely from the Leidy South expansion project, which came online in phases last year. Operating and maintenance costs were higher, driven in part by an acceleration in maintenance work during the second quarter of this year. Overall, Transmission & Gulf of Mexico's $652 million of adjusted EBITDA was just over our business plan for this segment for the second quarter. Our Northeast G&P business increased $41 million or 10%, driven by top line Gathering and Processing revenue growth on slightly higher volumes. G&P rate growth was supported by a combination of factors, including higher commodity-based rates, annual fee escalations and other expansion-related fee increases that more than offset the lower cost of service rates that we have in our Bradford franchise. We saw an expected sequential increase in Northeast volumes for the second quarter of 2022 versus the first quarter, and we expect continued quarterly increases for volumes for the remainder of the year. But ultimately, our plan for the Northeast in '22 continues to see higher EBITDA versus 2021 on pretty flat volume growth. However, we remain well positioned to resume stronger volume and EBITDA growth in the Northeast in 2023, driven by several expansion and optimization projects underway that Alan will discuss in more detail. Shifting now to the West, which saw an impressive $73 million or 33% improvement over 2021 and I'll mention that $20 million of that $73 million was attributed to our Trace Midstream acquisition, which closed on April 29. So even without Trace, the West still increased $53 million or 24%. In the West, we continue to see upside from our commodity price exposed rates, especially in the Barnett and Haynesville, as well as substantially higher volumes in the Haynesville that drove an 11% overall increase in volumes for the West, excluding the Trace acquisition. Also in the West, we see a strong quarter-over-quarter volume growth trajectory throughout the second half of the year, driven primarily by the Haynesville. Next, we saw a slight decrease for our Gas & NGL Marketing Services business as was expected in our business plan. And as a reminder, the first quarter of each year is typically when this segment will create the majority of its EBITDA. Overall, our Marketing Services business is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the recent natural gas price and location volatility we've seen in July. And so we expect them to exceed the high end of the $50 million to $70 million annual adjusted EBITDA contribution we discussed last quarter. So again, another strong quarter with 14% growth in EBITDA, driven by core business performance and upside in our upstream joint venture operations. Let's move to Slide 3 and take a look at the year-to-date comparison. So through the first six months of 2022, we've now generated 10% growth in adjusted EBITDA over '21 or 13% if you exclude the unusual first quarter 2021 winter storm benefits. So that's two strong quarters to start the year, so stepping now from last year's $2.732 billion to this year's just over $3 billion. And you start with the $77 million of those first quarter '21 winter storm benefits, which we've isolated here in gray, and then moving to the $122 million contribution from our upstream operations which, again, were Wamsutter related in the first quarter of '22 and then began to have a more significant Haynesville component in the second quarter, as discussed on Slide 2. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico business has seen 3% growth year-to-date, driven by Transco's Leidy South expansion project and strong first quarter '22 seasonal revenues with again some acceleration of maintenance costs into the second quarter of '22. The Northeast G&P business has now seen 7% growth year-to-date driven by higher rates on overall flat volumes as discussed on the previous slide. The West has seen an impressive 25% growth year-to-date, driven by higher commodity base rates but also a strong 11% overall volume growth, excluding the Trace acquisition. Finally, our Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment is up $28 million, driven by favorable commodity margins as well as the new contributions from the Sequent acquisition that closed on July 1 of last year. So an impressive $275 million or 10% increase to land us with just over $3 billion of adjusted EBITDA through the first six months of the year, and we expect things to improve from here for the remainder of the year. So let's turn the page and take a look at our current thoughts for full year 2022 financial guidance. We are once again pleased to share a substantial improvement in our 2022 financial guidance, making this the second increase since our initial guidance in February of this year. I won't go through each of these metrics, but will offer some commentary on the most pivotal numbers. So let's start with adjusted EBITDA, where our midpoint is increasing another $200 million from our last guidance increase moving from $6.05 billion to $6.25 billion. This second substantial raise in EBITDA guidance is grounded in our continued confidence in the growth of our core business and represents a nearly 8% increase from our initial guidance given in February. As we look to the second half of the year, we expect higher EBITDA than the first half for all of our segments, except perhaps the marketing business, and with an overall pick-up in sequential EBITDA growth for the fourth quarter over the third quarter. Although it's less certain, our Gas & NGL Marketing business could also match or exceed their first half performance during the last six months of the year, which is a bit unusual for this business. Their storage and transportation assets and trading capabilities are very well suited for the volatility we are seeing in this natural gas markets. Continuing on with the other segments, we expect Transmission & Gulf of Mexico should finish the year strong with fourth quarter numbers more like their first quarter numbers. And we continue to expect growing quarterly EBITDA and volumes from our West and Northeast segments with some level of acceleration through the latter part of the year. With respect to our upstream operations, we are encouraged by the results we've seen thus far in 2022. In the appendix, you'll see that we're guiding to fourth quarter '22 gross production of approximately 250 million cubic feet per day for the Wamsutter operation and we have increased our expectations for Haynesville to an estimated fourth quarter '22 gross production rate of about 400 million cubic feet per day. Our appendix slides also provide information about the specific hedges we've currently placed against our forecasted net production volumes. No change to our CapEx assumptions from our previous guidance update in May on our first quarter earnings call, which had increase from the February guidance only to reflect the Trace acquisition capital spending. You see that our debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be about 3.6x at midpoint. The remainder of the guidance items either changed in relation to the change in EBITDA just discussed or remain unchanged. So again, a second substantial increase in EBITDA guidance representing an almost 8% increase in our midpoint from our initial guidance provided in February of this year, driven by continued growth in our core business as well as contributions from our Trace acquisition and improved expectations for our upstream JV operations. So with that, I'll pass it back to Alan to review our key investor focus areas. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, John. I'm going to move on here on Slide 5 to the key investor focus areas. So I know this may sound a little bit like a broken record, but on this first bullet. But without a doubt, we are the most natural gas-centric of the large-scale midstream companies. And there's a reason we've stuck with our natural gas focused strategy for as long as we have. Not only is this strategy delivering in the current environment, but the signals coming from the market show that it's going to continue to deliver substantial growth for the long term as well. We continue to see strong fundamentals driving a great pipeline of growth opportunities, particularly increasing demand for U.S. LNG exports and power generation along the Transco corridor. Importantly, we continue to see strong demand for our services domestically as well, evidenced by a three-day peak summer delivery that we achieved on the Transco pipeline in early July this year as we continue to see weather-driven demand for cooling. So really seeing a lot of big pools, you're seeing some strong basis differentials setting up in these areas where we've got some strong peak demands during the heat wave that the Southeast experienced. And notably, we continue to see these record levels of demand for natural gas even with the Freeport LNG facility being out. So we see these as good indicators of the long-term health of our business, but I'll remind you that business on our Transco system is actually driven by contracted capacity and not the actual transported volumes. But obviously, when we see peaks like that, our customers are seeing those as well and know that the demand on our systems and the growth in demand on our system is needed and the contracts come with that. This demand growth continues to increase in the face of higher natural gas prices, which speaks to the continued inelastic demand for natural gas, both here and abroad, and the fact that natural gas remains a bargain versus alternative fuels. Our G&P business also continues to thrive in the current environment, allowing us to capture the upside benefit of pricing and inflation adjusters in our rates that have been sitting on their floor for many years. And recently, volumes on our systems have finally begun to respond to the higher prices that we've seen in the gas space. So moving on to financial strength and stability. As John just detailed, we increased our guidance midpoint beyond the high end of the previous range for the second time this year to $6.25 billion, and this was driven by the following items
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chase Mulvehill from Bank of America.
Chase Mulvehill :
So I guess first thing, I just wanted to ask is really about the permitting legislation that is being proposed by Manchin. I guess a question specific for you guys is, are there any projects that maybe you took off the Board previously that could come back if this legislation actually passes? And then as a follow-up to that, if this legislation does get passed, could you maybe talk about the puts and takes as we think about gas being sourced between the Permian, Marcellus and Haynesville if this does get passed?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thank you. Great question. Well, first of all, the actual language for that proposed bill is not out. So it's kind of hard to comment on. But I would say that we've been working hard on our government affairs front and really the whole executive team in trying to influence the policy and the legislation that would come out on that. So we're hopeful that, that will be very meaningful. And if it does, I would think that it would try to address the situation where we've had states abusing the 401 water quality certificate that are blocked projects. And that certainly would open up some opportunities for us as we've had some projects blocked on that basis. So I would say we're optimistic, but a lot can happen in the world of politics and we're just not really certain exactly how that bill will come out at this point. But relative to the Haynesville, the Permian and the Marcellus, certainly, the Marcellus has been the basin that has been has decades of low-cost gas as well. But really, if we're going to get up on planes, and be a large exporter of natural gas, we're going to need the Marcellus for the long term because that is where a lot of our very low cost reserves are impacted basin by that will be the Marcellus because things like in Louisiana, for instance, that infrastructure, a lot of that is being expanded within the state. And it is up against some of those same challenges and certainly more supported politics in those areas. So we are very helpful. We think the Marcellus and the Utica both would benefit significantly from the kind of permitting reform that we're looking for.
Chase Mulvehill :
All right. It makes sense. I appreciate that, Alan. As a quick follow-up, your Northeast G&P volumes were a [tap right] in 2Q. I guess, kind of wondering if there's anything specific going on there. And also in the press release, you talked about advancing multiple gas fathering projects in the Northeast. So maybe could you talk about the timing of kind of bringing some of those gas gathering projects online and whether this is kind of targeting more rich gas areas?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. We do have some pretty exciting projects. I'll let Micheal Dunn talk about some of those that will unlock some of that capacity in the area.
Micheal Dunn :
Sure. Thanks, Alan. Our gathering volumes were up slightly in the second quarter compared to last year. That's really meeting our expectations. Most of our producers are in maintenance mode there and expecting some growth to occur in '23. But also in the latter half of '22, as we've been talking about in the previous call, we would expect to see some volume increases there coming online before the end of the year. So stay tuned, we do expect to see some additional volumes coming our way. In regard to our expansion projects, we do have a number that we've outlined in the presentation materials, that are going on in the Northeast, some in the Northeast PA area. But all -- and that's targeted dry gas there in the Northeast PA area. That one would come online in the second half of '23. Then we've got several in the rich gas areas in Southwest PA and West Virginia wild areas. And the bulk of those will come online in '23 as well, as outlined in the material. But we do have an interconnect that we're working between our West Virginia processing areas and the Blue Racer system that would come online this year. That would unlock some additional processing capacity access for our West Virginia properties where we are currently at capacity in West Virginia on processing. And so it would help alleviate some of that constraint there by moving that volume over to the Blue Racer system. That will be online within the next several months. But we'll unlock some additional opportunity there. But all in all, the bulk of the expansion will come online in '23 and our producers are gearing up for that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Marc Solecitto from Barclays.
Marc Solecitto :
So maybe just to start on the upward guidance revision, could you frame up the puts and takes at the upper and lower end of the revised range? Any kind of just tying on to that, for the unhedged portion of remaining 2022 production volumes, had your pricing assumptions around Henry Hub changed at all from your Analyst Day or if the current strip holds, would that be upside?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, we're not going to provide a whole lot of detail on that, just because it kind of becomes an endless thread to pull on from a pricing standpoint. But I would just say that there is upside at the current strip, there is upside in our -- against our midpoint, and that would push us up closer to the high end of the range if we were to see the current strip hold on natural gas. Not -- we don’t update our oil side so much. So there is little bit of impact to both NGLs and oil that obviously would be down a little bit from previous expectations.
Marc Solecitto :
Got it. Appreciate the color there. And then costs generally ticked up on a sequential basis, particularly in the Northeast and Transmission segments. Wondering if you could give a little more color on the drivers there? Was that just a factor of timing or general cost inflation that you're seeing? Or were there any discrete factors that we should be thinking about as we think about the trajectory through the remainder of the year?
Micheal Dunn :
Sure. This is Michael. I'll take that. So in the Transmission Gulf of Mexico business, we did see some cost increases there, and this was primarily driven by maintenance activities that we accelerated into the second quarter. We did anticipate some significant volume demand on the Transco system and seeing that expectation out there, we did accelerate some work to get that out of the way before the summer air conditioning loads on the power generation side. And so we accelerated that work. We also had some unforeseen integrity work that we undertook in the second quarter and we obviously didn't anticipate that, but that impacted our expenses there. I would just say, in rounding that out, though, we did exceed our EBITDA expectations and our plan for the Transmission Gulf of Mexico business in the quarter and year-to-date. So those expenses didn't impact our planned numbers and our expectations there. And in the Northeast, a very similar story there. We're just working on various maintenance overhauls and things of that nature in the second quarter. So costs are up slightly there, some of that’s driven by activity that we've expected to do in the second quarter. Really nothing unforeseen there against our budget though, I would say.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
It seems like Mountain Valley Pipeline could actually happen. There's been soft start before, but it may actually happen this time. Would that starting up have any material impact on your EBITDA?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, it would. There's quite a bit of gas supply back in the gathering systems upstream of that. So recall that EQT bought out Chevron's acreage, which is a lot around our West Virginia assets. So some of our high-margin business in that area from that original dedication from Chevron, which actually came originally from Atlas. And so some pretty nice pull on our gathering systems and as well on a longer-term basis that will enable us to be able to continue to provide lower, call it, less capital investment in expansions on our Transco system with bringing supplies into that area, which is becoming more and more in demand. So yes, we would see Mountain Valley Pipeline is very positive to us in the immediate term around increased gathering flows on our system and processing and fractionation but as well provides lower cost, lower capital expansion opportunities on Transco that, of course, allow us to make higher returns and better margin on our Transco business. So we're certainly pulling for Mountain Valley Pipeline to get built.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
And then how large of an operational impact, if any, could this EPA turbine emissions will create for Williams? Can you give some color on how you see the way forward from here?
Micheal Dunn :
Yes, Jean Ann, I'll take this. This is Micheal. We don't anticipate that having any impact on our business and the requirements to go out and do the testing is underway, and we're seeing the results such that it will have no impact on our business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish :
So leverage is down to 3.6% this year and EBITDA is growing at a double-digit rate. So I'm just wondering with the strong backdrop, how you think about capital return for the balance of the year and into 2023? And it feels like you've raised guidance twice this year. So maybe you have some more flexibility to return capital? So curious on your thoughts.
John Porter :
Thanks, Puneet. This is John Porter, I will take that. Yes, so relative to capital allocation, I might just sort of restate our current priorities and guidelines remain unchanged with the focus on our balance sheet strength and our growing dividend with very strong coverage, our strategic organic investments, including investments in modernizing our regulated assets and making disciplined new energy investments. And beyond these priorities, we maintain excellent financial flexibility to manage debt refinancing through the volatile debt capital markets we've been seeing lately, pursuing bolt-on transactions that can add scale to our core natural gas-based strategy like the Trace acquisition or to pursue stock repurchases. And I might just say a little more on the stock repurchases since I know it's an important topic out there. As you'll recall, we previously discussed initiating share repurchases based on reaching an undisclosed spread between our equity yield and our 10-year debt cost. Now obviously, since then, we've seen significant increases in our 10-year debt cost, which really would have made it increasingly unlikely that share repurchases would be triggered. So we did recently revisit those principles, and we're not only considering the current equity yield now, but we're also considering a level of expected growth in the business given the solid growth we've seen in the business now for many, many years. And the effect of this change will provide us more flexibility to be opportunistic around share repurchases, should we see a significant pullback from current valuation levels. And this might be the case if a recession gains strength and energy macro conditions were to deteriorate. And we have more confidence than ever in our ability to perform very well even through a severe recession, and we feel like our performance in 2020 during the heart of the pandemic really proved this to be true. So our current share buyback principles will allow us to act opportunistically if we see a valuation dislocation. And by the way, the strong free cash flows coming off our upstream JVs would be a great source of capital to affect share repurchases under these circumstances. So I hope that provides an overview on the capital allocation question. I think relative to the leverage, in particular, the 3.6 that we're guiding to now is obviously well below the 4.2 metric, which we believe is more of the ceiling for maintaining our strong BBB credit rating. We do continue to believe a BBB credit rating remains optimal for our business, and we are also mindful that our current metrics are benefiting from a pretty strong commodity price backdrop. But in any case, we are pleased with the financial flexibility we have had under the present circumstances and excited about our future prospects really no matter where the synergy cycle goes next.
Praneeth Satish :
And then switching gears, can you talk about what you're seeing in the Eagle Ford? I think, drilling activity has been picking up. And I know you have some MVCs there. Do you think volumes could move above MVCs at some point in the coming years? Or do you think they'll kind of stay below MVCs?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. I would say just -- I would just add to that, one contract with Chesapeake, we obviously have other customers out there, and we're picking up new business out there as a result of some of that returned activity. So we're excited to see that. But relative to the one contract that has the MVCs in it, it kind of -- there's ways to go, I would just say, to get over and above the MVC out there, and it would take pretty active responses from the producers. But we are excited to see the activity, and we are picking up business from other producers out there as well that's helping us out.
Operator:
Our next question comes from [Regina Devon] from JPMorgan. My apologies, Jeremy Tonet.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to come back to the Inflation Reduction Act a little bit, if I could. Just wanted to see, I guess, what are some of the things you're watching there that could positively influence your business specifically as it relates to the tax credits? If some of those do come to fruition, how that might that impact your view of CCS, hydrogen or other?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. Let me have Chad Zamarin address that, Chad?
Chad Zamarin :
Sure. Yes. Thanks. I'd say we have announced potential projects in the CCUS arena. We're very active in exploring the hydrogen potential. We've been publicly discussing the fact that we're participating in four potential hydrogen hubs that were a part of the Infrastructure Act, the funding through DOE was part of the Infrastructure Act. So we've been actively pursuing multiple opportunities to prove out those areas. The proposed tax credit would be supportive of our strategy. Certainly the 45Q credits would be very supportive of our CCUS project in the Haynesville, which would be a project that will be built alongside our lake system that would decarbonize that project and production in Hayesville. So we're very excited to see that forward. And hydrogen still got a long ways to go. The projects that we think are being discussed are primarily in support of green hydrogen, and we've got great opportunities across our footprint to complement our infrastructure with green hydrogen production, but also seeing the CCUS credits and the hydrogen credits. Together, it would be the most impactful for supporting kind of natural gas production [to happen]. So we're encouraged with those. As we spoke on previous earnings calls, those projects are in line with our expectations, and we would see projects that will move forward based on those credits. And so I'd say stay tuned.
Jeremy Tonet :
That's helpful. And just want to pivot towards Haynesville a little bit here. You gave some good color, but wondering if you could provide a little bit more with regards to Trace performance versus expectations? And specifically, incremental expansion projects there. Just wondering how you see the cadence of Haynesville growth on your systems and how long is the runway?
Micheal Dunn :
Thanks, Jeremy, this is Michael. Yes, Trace is performing as we expected. So, so far, so good. We've integrated the team there very well. And really taking hold of what the culture is here at Williams. So very pleased with what we're seeing there so far. On the rest of the Haynesville, we are seeing some great improvements year-over-year in regard to our gathering volumes there. So very pleased with that and across a great array of different producer customers -- we do have a number of expansions underway in the North part of the system. Some of that will come online later this fall, but we also have some in our South in Haynesville system that we are anticipating bringing on as well. So a lot of activity and associated expansion opportunities. We’re at a number of different producers there, both public and private and we've outlined that in the presentation materials, but these expansions are pretty reasonable costs as well from a capital investment standpoint just because of the backbone nature of the systems that we have built out there. We've talked about GeoSouthern driving a lot of new capacity through our systems that we had already built out a long time ago, and we're seeing the benefits of that now with these low capital investment opportunities that are driving very significant volume growth out of the Haynesville.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Reynolds from UBS.
Brian Reynolds :
First question, I really want to just follow up on some of the capital allocation commentary previously. I appreciate the color. But as a follow-up, you talked about the spread between the equity yield and credit. I'm just kind of curious, just given Williams is heading towards a sub 3.5 leverage. Just wondering if there’s a point where Williams will consider sub-optimal leverage as another consideration in terms of the capital allocation framework in case Williams does not see that potential equity pullback alluded to?
John Porter :
Yes. I think we are really just focused in on maintaining our BBB credit rating as really being optimal for the business. And we've got to stay mindful of the amount of tailwind that's coming from the very strong commodity prices right now. So we're taking a long-term view of the business cycles and the commodity price cycles and continue to think about leverage, what leverage target makes the most sense. But really, we're focused on the strong BBB credit ratings and being durable through many different business cycle iterations as well as having dry powder along the way too for bolt-on transactions that might really help our natural gas scale.
Brian Reynolds :
Great. And then as a follow up -- appreciate the commentary on the tax credits. Maybe to talk a little bit more about the corporate minimum tax proposals. Any initial comments that you could have on the impacts to Williams? And then as it relates to NOLs, I know there's a difference between book hitting what you guys impact. So any initial takes on potential impacts to Williams there?
John Porter :
Yes. Thanks, Brian. Yes, my response will be pretty general given that we're still tracking the continued development of the legislation and a lot of the more important specifics will probably be a result of work getting done by the IRS or the treasury department down the road. But based on what we know today, we'd offer the following comments. Under the current tax code, we resumed paying some cash taxes in '25, but with a more significant step-up in '26. So this policy change would really just mean that we start paying cash taxes in '23, however this appears to just be a timing issue and not a permanent increase in tax. In other words, we would be able to claim a credit for the book minimum taxes paid against our future regular corporate tax. So from a valuation perspective, it's pretty immaterial versus the status quo scenario. In other words, the impact is really just the equivalent of advancing the government a fairly immaterial noninterest-bearing loan that might grow for three to four years and then start to decline as we utilize the credit against our regular taxes, which again become more significant in the 2026 timeframe. Now additionally, as Chad mentioned, we would also be able to use green energy credits against the book minimum tax, but not until those projects are placed into service. As you know, Williams is enjoying a lot of financial strength and flexibility right now with our 2.29x dividend coverage. So we feel like we remain very well positioned to absorb the impact of this minimum book tax which, in our case, again, is just essentially in advance to the government of the taxes that were likely coming due in a few years anyway. And one last comment, we don't expect to book minimum tax to affect our regulated rate based assets either.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gabriel Moreen from Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen :
A couple of ones. I just want to maybe ask about the backlog and the projects in development slide. It shifted a little bit since 1Q. It seems like maybe some projects have dropped off from LNG, but also been added to the industrial backlog. Just wondering if there's any larger reads there from that as far as either competition or just demand for more infrastructure?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, Gabe, I'm looking at Micheal here to see if he had any insight on that. I don't know what would have dropped off of there, other than maybe we pulled the LNG, the LEG project off and moved that into execution. So that probably occurred is that the only thing because that was slated as an LNG project. So I expect that move. But other than that, I would tell you that we just continue to be impressed with the amount of demand for increased services on our Transco system, particularly in kind of the traditional parts of our market as well as a lot of opportunities for serving LNG in the Gulf. But I don't think there's been any shift in our business other than LEG project getting pulled from pipeline into execution.
Gabriel Moreen :
And then I know it's not a huge driver for Williams, but clearly a full time in the Conway NGL markets over the last couple of weeks. I was wondering if you can just maybe speak how your assets are positioned there and whether there's been any, I guess, upside to Williams, given some...?
Micheal Dunn :
Gabe, this is Micheal. Yes, I think we'll see some opportunity there to work that issue for the benefit of both ourselves and the third party there, one of them that had the issue. But right now, we are working to make sure we can accommodate volumes into our systems, but it looks like we'll be able to accomplish that and certainly helping industry out in that regard. But there will be some upside in Williams for the business that we'll take on there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides :
Thank you for taking my question, as I have two of them. First one, you've gotten a lot of questions today on capital allocation. Just curious, you've made a lot of progress in moving forward with some new projects. Congrats on Regional Energy Access and EIS, by the way. Congrats on LEG as well. Just curious how you're thinking about growth CapEx for next year and the year after? And I know you're not going to give the actual number, but just directionally on -- you've got a lot of projects in the hopper. Should we think that growth CapEx in the coming years is a little bit above kind of where you're expecting this year to be?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, Michael. Not really. I mean, a lot of that's been in forecast and a lot of that money has been -- being spent already. So things like oil, a lot of that money we spend already on the pipe, a lot of the prefab work, a lot of those very expensive deepwater specialty products that we use for the interconnect, and a lot of that money was spent. The late portion of that project will start this year, and that's already in that capital budget. So I would say, while it may appear that way, there's actually -- if you look at the timing of some of the spend on these projects, it's actually pretty levelized over the period. So not really seeing any big increase and beyond kind of the normal run rate right now on capital. So excited about the projects. I would tell you, the one thing we didn't mention maybe -- and I think it's very, very unique to Williams is our ability to turn the dial up and down on modernization capital and emission reduction work on the Transco system. And so that's an attractive alternative that we have that's pretty unique. And so when it comes to capital allocation question, that's an interesting dial that we have. And obviously, share buybacks or anything else really has to compete with those returns on investing and updating our regulated transmission system. So that's probably a variable that sits out there over the longer term. But here for the next couple of years, I think our capital will be pretty ratable to where we've been seeing that barring and I'm accepting obviously things like Trace, the Trace acquisition and kind of pulling the Trace acquisition off of that and thinking about it from a growth capital for organic development.
Michael Lapides :
And then one follow up and this one is a little bit granular and I apologise. But just curious -- when you're thinking about your gas production assets in Wamsutter and in the Haynesville, just curious do you have like a hedging philosophy you want to stick to or the company and the Board in more general stick to? Meaning how much of like next year, do you want to have hedged going into the year relative to your production levels?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. No, not really, Michael. It's a good question. I would say that when we see opportunity and we see market volatility that crops prices up, we tend to take advantage of that. But we're not really having to -- obviously, we're not meeting the hedge for cash just for security of cash flow, so it's really a value proposition question. And when we think that there's good upside in capturing some of those hedges or we think it's -- where the market is overheated a little bit from time to time, we'll try to pick that up. So not really any clear corporate policy on that other than to be opportunistic when we see opportunities in the market that we think are a good value for the cash flows we have.
Micheal Dunn :
To add to that, in the Wamsutter, we want to be careful. We have a situation where we have a physical flow issue to three knobs. We will be pretty careful in Wyoming as well as to what we hedge up there going into the winter months.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere :
First, John mentioned prospective, more accretive bolt-on opportunities in terms of potential uses of free cash flow. Can you opine on where you still see low-hanging fruit there, specifically with opportunities in the Northeast G&P as well as across the West?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. As far as strategic or bolt-on acquisitions that expand natural gas scale in Northeast and Haynesville, I don't know, Chad, do you want to talk about the landscape that you're seeing there?
Chad Zamarin :
Yes. I would just say that we remain very disciplined when it comes to bolt-on transactions. We are always looking for places where we can leverage our footprint, our scale. And we do see bolt-on transaction opportunities in the Northeast and continued consolidation in the Haynesville, and virtually across kind of our footprint, including some potential opportunities that complement our transmission and storage businesses. So we'll continue to evaluate those. But I would say, I think you'll see more of the same where we've been very disciplined in making sure that anything that we do has real synergies and leverages our strength. And so we continue to feel like there may be opportunities there.
Craig Shere :
And the increased guidance was not unexpected, but I think a little more than The Street was anticipating. Some of that clearly driven by some volumes that are very attractive and you all mentioned are ramping into the end of the year. So if I just annualize the implied second half, I get very close to a $6.5 billion EBITDA run rate. But The Street is under $6.4 billion and volumes are ramping. I mean I realize there's issues of commodity pricing year-over-year. But would it be fair to say that you all are pretty comfortable that you're looking good relative to Street expectations heading into next year?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes, Craig, I think you described that actually very well. We do have continued growth in the next year, but I would say that that's offset by kind of the current strip obviously in terms of pricing on the E&P space, but we do have growth in that as well. So yes, we're positioned for an attractive '23. But obviously, we don't have guidance out there, and that will be somewhat dependent on how prices actually realize next year on the E&P business. But certainly, a lot of volume growth to be coming on the E&P business through the balance of the year that will extend itself into '23. And the gathering volumes in the Northeast are going to be very durable. And the growth that we're seeing in the Haynesville will continue. So a lot of very positive tailwinds, I would say, right now for the balance of '22 as well as setting up for a very attractive '23. And then even as we get into '24 and '25, a lot of the transmission projects that we're executing on right now and the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico really pile on to what's a great base of growth. So we're pretty -- I would say we're pretty bullish right now about the way the next three years are stacking up in terms of very visible growth across the business right now.
Operator:
Our last question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities.
Neal Dingmann :
Alan, you've touched a lot about this, but maybe a little more details on that, specifically your thoughts on maybe spending or specifically, could you talk about -- a bit of an update on your CapEx guide. I am just wondering -- you talked around that a little bit today comparatively in Q&A. I'm just wondering any more color you can give on that updated guide.
Alan Armstrong :
Yes on sort of '22 or beyond '22 on CapEx?
Neal Dingmann :
Yes, more for beyond, again, I kind of obviously get what you're doing this year and so more is expectations and kind of you've got a lot of exciting projects. So I'm just trying to get an idea of maybe sort of organic versus these other projects and as you said more in the sort of beyond?
Alan Armstrong :
Yes. Okay. Sorry, I understand your question a little better now. Well, I would just say kind of as you lay out kind of the puts and takes right now, a lot of money being spent right now in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as I mentioned, particularly on the well prospect and for the balance of the year. That will kind of wane off as we get into '23 as well a lot of expansion projects in our Gathering and Processing areas that will also start to wane off as we get into '23, and those will be somewhat replaced by executing on some of our transmission projects. And that group of five that we're executing on right now for 1.9 Bcf a day of new capacity. So that's kind of how I would stack that up as Deepwater, and Gathering and Processing, driving that quite a bit through the balance of this year and into the first part of next year, and then that starts to be replaced with execution around our transmission projects. So I think that's a good set up. I would say we continue to see these demand pulls on the gathering systems, while we're not building that growth in right now. Certainly potential for some of that to continue. But again, pretty efficient capital investment projects in our gathering systems relative to the growth, as Micheal pointed out earlier.
Neal Dingmann:
Great. Great. And then lastly, just a quick follow-up. You've seen -- continue to see some great commodity price upside around those upstream JVs in years. I'm just wondering, can you help me a bit what -- I don't know if you can frame this a little bit, but what type of price sensitivity do you have? It appears to me that prices are going to stay higher, maybe even go higher. So I'm just trying to get a sense of sensitivity around some of those upstream JVs.
Alan Armstrong :
Sure. Mike or…?
John Porter :
Yes, I think it's a little bit of a moving target. We have given some good volume information in the appendix of the presentation. Those volumes are ramping pretty quickly quarter-by-quarter right now, and we'll continue to do so into '23. So we'll continue to try to provide clarity around the volumes. We've also kind of laid out what hedges we put against those. So it's a bit of a moving target, and it will change each quarter as our net production volumes continue to increase and as the overall hedge portfolio changes. But we're going to continue to provide that information in the appendix every quarter so that you can keep up with how that's changing.
Operator:
We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong :
Okay. Well, thank you all very much. Thanks for the great questions. Another really terrific quarter and great setup for both the balance of the year and into '23. So we're really excited about where we're positioned today and really hopeful that some of the permitting issues are going to be dealt with in light of a lot of concern over the energy crisis that is beginning to be felt here even in the U.S. And so we think that's going to bring some attention to needed permitting reform, and we intend to be front and center in trying to make that good for both our country and from Williams as well. So we thank you for joining us today, and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Williams First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks Sara, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in the Williams Company. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release, and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong and our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today, Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer, Lane Wilson, our General Counsel, and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remark and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles and these reconciliation scheduled appeared at the back the base presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you, Danilo. Our natural gas focused strategy continued to deliver steady, predictable growth and this past quarter was certainly no exception. In fact, we posted yet another quarter of record EBITDA driven by growth across all four of our core business segments as well as our Upstream JV operations. We continue to set new records for contracted transmission capacity, and expect this record breaking performance to continue for many years to come as we execute on the six unique transmission expansion projects totaling 1.9 Bcf per day, and our GMP business remain strong with modest growth during the quarter expected to ramp up over the balance of the year. We continue to further advance our clean energy strategy through tightly aligned deals announced this quarter, including our acquisition of the Trace Midstream assets in the fast growing Haynesville region, which just closed this past Friday, and through our partnership with Context Labs, that I'll detail more when we get to our key investor focus areas. Overall, we expect strong natural gas market fundamentals and steadfast project execution to drive additional growth for our business in ‘22. And as a result, we are raising financial guidance with expectations of another remarkable year of growth. Importantly, the midpoint of this new guidance is beyond the top of our previous range. So an impressive start to the year with a number of clear catalysts for growth for the balance of the year and into ‘23. And now I'll turn it over to John to go through the results for the quarter and our raised guidance. John?
John Porter:
Thanks Alan. So starting here on slide 1 with a summary of our year-over-year financial performance. Overall, ‘22 is off to a strong start. We've seen 7% growth in EBITDA or 13% if you adjust last year to remove the favorable effects of last year’s severe winter weather, including winter storm Uri. And as we'll see on the next slide, our core natural gas focus transmission and gathering and processing businesses have fueled this EBITDA growth. Although, we have also enjoyed continued strength in our Upstream and marketing businesses. Our adjusted EPS increased 17% continuing the strong trend of double digit growth we've seen now for many years. Available Funds from Operations, AFFO grew a bit more than EBITDA continuing the trend of strong growth in this measure, up 16% year-over-year. As a reminder, AFFO is cash from operations including JV cash flows, but excluding working capital fluctuations. If you compare AFFO to our capital investments of $316 million, and our dividends of $518 million, you see that we generated over $350 million in excess cash for the quarter. Also, you see our dividend coverage on this page based on AFFO continues to be very strong at 2.3x. Our debt to adjusted EBITDA metric continues to improve based on our strong growth and EBITDA and cash generation and our capital investment discipline. You see a nearly four tenths or 9% improvement in this measure in only a year. So now let's move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, another strong start this year with 7% growth reflecting the combined effect of the performance of our core business, and upside in our upstream operation. Walking now from last year's $1.415 billion to this year's $1.511 billion we start by isolating those favorable effects from last year’s severe winter weather which were $77 million, and are shown here in gray. Maybe just a quick opening comment regarding expense trends since inflation has been such a big topic lately, we've actually continued to see very solid cost control in our business. You may have noticed the $34 million increase in operating and maintenance expense on the face of our income statement. But this is really driven by a combination of higher reimbursable expenses that are offset in other fee revenue, new lease payments that were just the plan part of Transco’s Leidy South expansion project, and finally operating expenses associated with our new upstream operations. And related to the $31 million increase in SG&A on the face of the income statement, you should know that this is pretty much entirely related to the addition of the Sequent business. That also includes their bonus accrual and also an $8 million credit reserve related to a small customer bankruptcy. Moving next to our upstream operations on the waterfall chart here included in our other segment, upstream operations were at $56 million, excluding the $22 million of winter weather benefits from last year. Importantly, our first new Haynesville production only began in April so really no contribution in this $54 million yet from Haynesville. So the full amount of the growth is attributable to our Wamsutter properties. And it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison at that. As a reminder, last year, we owned 100% of the acreage we acquired from BP only for February and March. But in the first quarter of this year, we owned 75% of the Wamsutter upstream JV which now includes the combined BP, Southland and Crowheart acreage. Shifting now to our core business performance. Our Transmission and Gulf of Mexico business improved $37 million, or 6%, primarily at Transco and largely from the Leidy South Expansion Project, which came online in phases last year. Overall, our average daily transmission volumes for Transco increased over 6% versus the prior year as we once again saw record winter natural gas demand. And Transco’s revenues are driven by reserve capacity, not actual throughput, but continued growth in actual throughput does highlight the criticality of Transco’s service. We also saw higher margins in our Gulf of Mexico business. Our Northeast G&P business increased $16 million, or 4%, driven by top line gathering and processing revenue growth on slightly lower volumes. G&P rate growth was supported by a combination of factors including higher commodity base rate, annual fee escalation and other expansion related fee increases that more than offset lower cost to service rate at our Bradford franchise. The slightly lower year-over-year Northeast volumes in the first quarter were anticipated in our initial guidance, and we expect a continued quarterly increase for the remainder of the year compared to the first quarter of ‘22 levels. We continue to expect a gradual increase in overall Northeast volumes throughout the remainder of the year. But ultimately, our plan for the Northeast in ‘22 continues to see higher EBITDA versus ‘21 on pretty flat volumes. However, we are well positioned to resume stronger volume and EBITDA growth in the Northeast in ’23 driven by several expansion and optimization projects underway that Alan will discuss in more detail. Shifting out to the West, which saw an impressive $35 million or 17% improvement over ‘21. In the West, we continue to see upside from our commodity price expose rates in the Barnett, Piceance and Haynesville as well as substantially higher volumes in the Haynesville that drove an 11% overall increase in volumes for the West. In the West, we see a strong quarter-over-quarter growth trajectory throughout the rest of the year, and especially in the second half of the year, driven primarily by strong drilling activity in the Haynesville. Next, you see a $30 million increase in our Gas and NGL marketing services business, which includes both our legacy gas and NGL marketing business as well as Sequent. This improvement was primarily caused by the addition of Sequent in July of last year. Overall, this segment produced $65 million of EBITDA. As a reminder, the first quarter of each year is typically when Sequent creates the majority of its EBITDA. And this was a strong performance for the team. While we expect to see $50 million to $70 million of annual adjusted EBITDA contribution for this combined segment, Sequent plus our legacy marketing business, this year we've gotten off to a stronger start than expected. And with the strong commodity price expectation for ‘22, we expect to exceed this $50 million to $70 million range. So again, another strong start to the year with 7% growth in EBITDA at over $1.5 billion, driven by core business performance and upside in our upstream and marketing operations. Let's move to slide 3 to look at our latest financial guidance thoughts for full year ‘22. We are pleased to share a substantial improvement in our ‘22 financial guidance versus what we provided in February of this year. I won't go through each of these metrics, but we'll offer some commentary on the most pivotal numbers. Let's start with adjusted EBITDA where our midpoint is increasing $250 million, moving from $5.8 billion to $6.05 billion with the [tightened] (ph) range of plus or minus $150 million versus the original plus or minus $200 million. This substantial raise in EBITDA guidance is grounded in our confidence and the continued growth in our core business before considering the Trace acquisition. Specifically, we expect steady quarterly EBITDA in our Transmission and Gulf of Mexico business through the remainder of the year. The continued quarterly EBITDA and volume growth from our West and Northeast segments, with some level of acceleration through the second half of the year. Additionally, for the remainder of ‘22, we expect a growing contribution from the Trace acquisition, which closed last week as it moves towards the targeted approximately 6x acquisition multiple based on its ‘23 EBITDA. And finally, with respect to our upstream operations, we are encouraged by the results we've seen thus far in ‘22 and remain confident in the fourth quarter exit rates we quoted at our Analyst Day. Shifting down the page now to growth CapEx you'll note a $1 billion increase in guidance from a combination of the $950 million Trace acquisition value and other Trace related CapEx. Note that we've closed the Trace acquisition using a combination of cash on hand and other sources of liquidity including our revolver and commercial paper. You see that our debt to adjusted EBITDA remained steady at 3.8x reflecting the balancing of our increase EBITDA with our increased growth capex portray. The remainders of the guidance items either changed in relation to the change in EBITDA that I just discussed or remain unchanged as in the case of maintenance CapEx. So again, a substantial increase in EBITDA dollars at the midpoint driven by continued growth in our core business as well as contributions from Trace acquisition and sustained expectations for our Upstream JV operations. So with that, I'll pass it back to Alan to review our key investor focus areas. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks John. I am going to move on to key investor focus here on slide 4. Our natural gas focused strategy continues to play out with strong fundamentals that are driving incremental growth opportunities particularly as we continue to see increasing demand for US LNG exports along the Transco corridor, as well we’ve seen domestic demand for power and industrial sectors continue to grow despite much higher natural gas prices, admittedly, it has been somewhat surprising to us how inelastic the challenge ahead to meet this higher cost of supply is the infrastructure to connect some of the world's lowest cost supplies to this burgeoning demand. I'll point out that Transco delivered a record breaking 17.15 million dekatherms on January 3rd and while extreme winter day deliveries this volume record. It was due to growing demand in the Transco markets. And we expect this natural growth in demand to continue as we continue to see loads within our existing footprint. Our G&P business continues to thrive in the current environment, allowing us to capture the upside benefit of pricing and inflation adjusters in our rate that have been sitting on their floor for many years and we continue to execute our upstream JV strategy by realizing the near term benefits of its commodity price exposure while setting the stage for continued use of our latent midstream capacity in the longer term as these volumes grow. And now I'm going to move on to our financial strength and stability. And as detailed earlier by John we increased our guidance midpoint to $6.05 billion driven by the following. First of all strong base business performance with volumes in the Northeast G&P business expected to rebound for the balance of the year. And of course this along with the higher rates that we're seeing in some of our consolidated assets is got to set up for a very strong performance for the balance of the year. Strong performance of our Gas and NGL marketing business in first quarter, and the growing volumes and our Upstream JV, which are enjoying higher than planned pricing is another driver. And finally, incremental volume and earnings from the Trace acquisition as we've mentioned earlier, with our recent updated guidance, we expect to achieve a four year EBITDA CAGR now at 7% and an impressive EPS CAGR of 19% at our midpoint. On the whole, our business continues to fire on all cylinders, driving our financial strength and stability. And the picture actually just keeps improving, as we have been well positioned to capture the upside in this environment. Looking now at our exposure to growth, given the current strength of natural gas fundamentals in the US and abroad, we see a significant runway of growth opportunities for Williams. First of all, we now have 1.9 Bcf per day of high return Transco projects that have now moved into execution. This has been raised since our Analyst Day due to recently secured customer commitments to advance the Texas Louisiana Energy Pathway Project, which moved out of the development bucket index accusation and this project connects low cost South Texas gas supplies with LNG markets in Louisiana. Second, in the Gulf of Mexico, we secured another customer agreement at Salamanca further building on growth momentum in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, which continued to deliver more and more opportunities in response to these higher oil prices. In the Northeast, we've reached agreements with our producing customers for significant gathering expansions in both the rich Utica and the rich Marcellus. And we now have four significant expansion projects under execution that will drive growth showing up later this year and in 2023. And our strategic bolt-on acquisition of assets from Trace Midstream close last week, and this now positions Williams as the second largest gas gather in the fast growing Haynesville. This is consistent with our long held strategy to seek a number one or number two position in the key basins in which we operate. With our Haynesville gas gathering capacity now about4 Bcf per day, we continue to crisply execute on our wellhead to water strategy. In fact, we are close to commercializing the Louisiana Energy Gateway project. And given significant interest by its various shippers, we do expect to announce a final investment decision on that project soon. Our growth prospects don't stop with these projects however, we see more opportunities on the horizon even as we navigate in evolving regulatory environment. Importantly, we saw that FERC respond to concerns from both industry and legislators in a constructive manner this past quarter, and we are optimistic that regulators recognize the need for reliable permitting process to support natural gas infrastructure. Importantly, key legislative leaders have renewed their focus on streamlining permitting in our country to ensure we've got the necessary midstream infrastructure to support our country's LNG build out goals. And finally, let's look at the developments related to our new energy ventures. Obviously, as we think about de-carbonization, there are a lot of opportunities to invest in energy innovation and new technologies. As part of our strategy to accelerate the next generation energy marketplace, Williams has established a Corporate Venture Capital Fund that is set up in a way to support direct investments in startups that leverage Williams’ assets for de-carbonization solutions, as well as limited partnership funds that specifically invest in low carbon technologies. A great example of how we're utilizing this VC fund is our recently announced partnership with Context Labs on a technology solution to support the gathering, marketing and transportation of responsibly sourced natural gas from wellhead to end user. And by leveraging the Context Labs technology, we will enable supply and delivery decisions that connect the cleanest energy sources to meet real time energy needs across the country. Also supporting our work in the space we just announced a collaboration with Cheniere Energy to implement a QMRV pilot that will further the development of advanced monitoring technologies to enhance clean energy supply and delivery for Williams and its customers. So lots of exciting things happening in this space and all positioned around supporting and enhancing our natural gas focus strategy. So in closing, I'll reiterate that our intense focus on our natural gas focus strategy has built a business that is steady and predictable with continued growth, improving returns and free cash flow. Our best-in-class long haul pipes are in the right place serving the very best markets and by design our formidable gathering assets are in the low cost basins that will be called on to meet gas demand as it continues to grow. These gathering assets are irreplaceable and critical infrastructure within the natural gas value chain. And our Sequent platform that extends across the natural gas pipeline and storage industry is providing infrastructure optimization services that create value for Williams and our customers while mitigating downside risk. You've heard me say it before, but we remain bullish on natural gas because we recognize the critical role it plays and will continue to play in both our countries and the world's pursuit of a clean energy future. Natural gas is an important component of today's fuel mix, and should be priorities as one of the most important tools to aggressively displace more carbon intensive fuels around the world. Our networks are critical to serving both domestic and global energy demand in a lower carbon and economically viable manner. And finally, as we look overseas to the energy crisis in Europe, and its ripple effects on energy security, the importance of affordable and reliable energy supplies on a global scale has now taken center stage. Williams is excited about the important role we will play in meeting the dual challenge of delivering increasing amounts of reliable affordable energy, while also continuing to decrease greenhouse gas emissions around the world. Utilizing our critical infrastructure that is connected to the best natural gas basins in the US to increasingly serve LNG export facilities. And growing US demand for clean affordable energy is a great place for our organization to start And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Danilo Juvane:
Operator, please open the Q&A line.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds of UBS.
Brian Reynolds:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Maybe to talk on the EBITA guidance a little bit, I was curious if you could provide a little bit more colors, the upside and downside of the EBITDA range. First look at apples-to-apples comparison seems like commodity exposure is really the main driver of guidance in addition to the Trace acquisition. I am just wondering if you have anything to add to that, in addition to that, if there are any volumetric assumption changes to the guidance update. Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, actually, the drivers are kind of primarily as you stated that the driver absolutely are based business. If you look at first quarter volumes in the Northeast, and you consider the rebound that we're seeing from very active drilling operations, a lot of that in the third and fourth quarter just due to infrastructure issues, but on our part, but that is the primary driver is just seeing a nice rebound in the Northeast. Actually, we're, I would say we're being pretty modest in our expectation of pricing. And in fact, if you look at this quarter, Haynesville really didn't even produce this quarter, other than the base level it's been producing at and certainly didn't contribute to EBITDA. So the upside that we have is really just from volumetrics, those with a pretty modest assumption on pricing for the balance of the year. So really the drivers, the primary driver for growth is first, our base business and second, the E&P in the Haynesville and that ramp up that is going very well at this point but did not contribute in the first quarter. And then finally, is the Trace acquisition in that order in terms of the value.
Brian Reynolds:
Great, appreciate that color. And then maybe as a follow up on just the evolving regulatory environment, it appears that there's some near-term tailwinds and support natural gas and LNG infrastructure permitting. I was curious if you could comment on this evolving environment and curious if Williams is considering adding new Transco growth projects for FERC approval for the docket that may not have been pursued in the last year, the beginning of this year? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say, first of all, we have a long list within that six projects that are under execution. And we are encouraged in our discussion with the FERC. And their clear desire to see good projects that reduce emissions in the markets they serve. And so I would say we're very fortunate to have a number of projects that actually reduce emissions in the markets they serve. And so we certainly are seeing support out of the FERC and obviously, they've been moving projects through pretty quickly. On the increment, I would say nothing really changed that much for us, it's just kind of a steady beat, right now of continued demand from customers and RFPs that we're responding to and working with customers on. So I will say that, I think on the one hand, you kind of have this popular notion that gas demand is not increasing. And on the other hand, the reality is it is increasing. And we're certainly seeing that through RFPs coming from our various customers on the demand side. So we're pretty excited about the way the future is shaping up on that front. And we do think particularly at FERC level, that they are being supportive, particularly of projects that we can demonstrate reduce emissions in the markets we serve. And we have a great track record of working with the FERC in a constructive manner. And we expect that to continue.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chase Mulvehill from Bank of America.
Chase Mulvehill:
Hey, good morning. I guess the first question is just really on LEG. It sounds like that you guys are getting close to FID in that. Could you talk about I guess how much contracting that you still have left that you need to accomplish and how much capacity that you expect like to be in maybe the total cost there as well. And I'm going to follow up after that.
Chad Zamarin:
Sure, hey, this is Chad. So LEG is at full capacity to 1.8 Bcf a day project, we have over half of that contracted today, we would expect to achieve sufficient level of commercial contracts over the next couple of months to FID the project. We see a pretty significant need for volumes that are growing in Haynesville to get to Gulf Coast markets. And so I would feel pretty good about that getting done. Mike Dunn is going to talk about the capital project.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, I would say so the capital cost estimates are really pretty much in line with the other projects that we've been executing on the large diameter type activities. We're not ready to disclose the actual capital investment opportunity there. But I mean suffice to say that the returns are very nice. And the fact that we also have options on the pipe right now really tells us that we are locking in on what we think the cost will be, just because the volatility of steel prices right now are pretty uncertain. And that's been going on for quite some time now. And we were able to acquire some options on some surplus pipe from cancelled projects, you can apply that towards the LEG project. So we feel good about the material costs right now that we have the budget and certainly feel pretty good about the capital costs that will take to construct it, based on what we know today.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, and important to just remember that when we executed on the Trace acquisition Quantum did, and we announced the Quantum will be an equity partner in the project. So that'll reduce our capital load a bit. And it could be that we bring in an additional equity partner in the project. So we will I think de-risk a portion of the capital budget and benefit of creating that full value chain from truly wellhead to water across our infrastructure and we'll work with our partners on the project to optimize the entire value chain.
Chase Mulvehill:
Okay, all right, perfect. The quick follow up is just directly on that strategy of wellhead to water. We do get questions from investors about midstream and if they would ever consider LNG export facilities, obviously, we've got one of your peers out there that obviously considering this. So I guess my question to you is, would you ever consider building an LNG export facility?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, I'll start and then Alan follow up. I'd say for the Haynesville strategy, the wellhead to water, there's a pretty good existing footprint of LNG export facilities that we're focused on connecting to. We are the largest infrastructure provider to the LNG terminals across the entire footprint. So for the near term, our focus is on making sure that our customers can access those LNG terminals. And also we can connect our customers to the very best markets, whether those are domestic or international. So I think our strategy of building that full value chain is not dependent upon us building and operating LNG terminals. And so our strategy today is to serve as a reliable supplier to LNG export terminal and then increasingly provide access to our customers to those LNG markets. I don’t know, Alan, if --
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, no, I think you said that very well, Chad, I think, obviously, there's a lot of project debt that's utilized in that space today that gets those down to some pretty low cash on cash returns that we think is a great way to make sure there's plenty of capacity to get out if we determined that there wasn't going to be plenty of capacity to get out. And we might consider that but as it sits today, looks like there's plenty of new capacity that is trying to get built and at low costs. And fairly low returns given the project financing things like this project. So we see better places that we can put our capital to use better today than they are. So that keeps us focused on the areas we have very strong competitive advantages, as Chad pointed out.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. Good morning, just staying on the Haynesville. There's a lot of midstream companies now that are evaluating takeaway projects, including you guys. I guess my question is, how competitive is it to secure contracts for a new pipeline? I mean I know you have a head start on LEG because of the Trace deal. But do you think you can generate the same return on LEG as you would on Transco projects? Just trying to get a sense of competitiveness.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, that's a great question, I would say generally, probably not is because our returns on Transco have gotten to be very much higher than then the normal projects. And thanks to the efforts of the environmental opposition and making pipeline permitting so difficult in the areas that we operate, it's allowed us much higher returns in that space than would normally be allowed. So yes, it's definitely more competitive. We like it. Because we've got follow on business upstream and downstream with Transco. So it makes the kind of total incremental return on those projects attractive, but it is not as high as kind of bolt-on expansions that we see on Transco today just because of our strong competitive position in those areas.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. And then maybe if you could just give us an update on producer activity in the Northeast, sounds like you're positive given the gathering expansions you've announced, but do you see the potential for a more meaningful volume increase in 2023? And then maybe tied to that where do you stand in terms of NGL volumes versus frac capacity? Do you see the need to expand frac capacity at any point over the coming years? Thanks.
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning, this is Michael, I’ll take the Northeast question. We saw in the first quarter of this year, really a convergence of several things that impacted volume in the Northeast, really across the entire basin. And a lot of that was driven by reduction increases that occurred in the fourth quarter of ‘21, where a lot of producers accelerated their well path connections early in order to hit great exit rates for the end of 2021, which was great for our systems. And we saw a lot of peaks on our systems in 2021. But that obviously hurt ‘22 performance in the first quarter with all of that really execution and then the decline that occurs from those new wells. So we saw that and we saw really significant winter weather in the Northeast this year, something that we haven't seen in several years of this magnitude and that did impact a lot of the production from the producer freeze off. And not only just on our systems and the producers on our systems, but the production that was gathered by others that would be brought to our processing facilities. We also saw some impacts there. So we did see inlet plant volume declined because of that. And then finally, we had a producer that had the well path that came online that had significant levels of condensate, which is good for them from a production standpoint, and it overwhelms their facilities. And so they weren't able to bring those volumes to us until they rectify that situation. And so that's been fixed. But that did impact some significant volumes from that producer in the quarter. So we had several big items that impacted that and developed and we expect an acceleration of volume coming on between now and the end of the year. And we have talked about volumes in the Northeast being somewhat flat this year, from some of the producers talking about being in maintenance mode, but we do see 2023 shaping up pretty well with the four expansions that we have underway across all of the dry and rich basin in the Northeast.
Alan Armstrong:
And just to be clear, when we say we're talking about flat volumes that we're saying flat to ‘21. So it'd be a growth point from where we are here in the first quarter for sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gabriel Moreen from Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen:
Hey, good morning, everyone, with some of the gathering contracts now it sounds like being off the minimums from I guess commodity price standpoint, I was wondering if there's a possibility for getting enterprise rise rules some for sensitivity to net gas prices overall. And I'm also just curious, what gas price forecasts are using in your guidance now?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, thanks for your question. I don't think we've released that sensitivity on price. We have said the contracts that we have, there are around our Laurel Mountain midstream business with EQT in the Marcellus has that feature as well as the Barnett gathering contracts in total and with total in the Barnett Shale, so those are kind of the two primary areas of exposure to those. There's a lot of areas of smaller ones, but in terms of any significance, those are bigger ones. But we have not provided that. In terms of the pricing that's in there, I would just tell you, it's, we're not counting on the kind of current pricing that we have, obviously for the balance of the year. And so we're being I would say a bit conservative about what we expect for the balance of the year, because we do think given the kind of growth that we're seeing in both the Haynesville and it's gearing up in the Marcellus and Utica that the workflows do, we can't very well on one hand, see the kind of prices to remain at these levels. And so I would say that those two things have to be considered jointly.
Gabriel Moreen:
Got it. And maybe if I can just ask one follow up on the Haynesville. After, hopefully, like FIDs in a not too distant future just how you're feeling about your current footprint there relative to kind of where you want to be, clear there's some other assets, I think that are out there on the market. So maybe you could just kind of speak to that as your balance sheets kind of giving you more room here, I think to play some more offense.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say, we're as usual, we're going to be patient and picky and we've done that, and that served us well. In the case of Trace, we kind of caught that at from a timing standpoint. I think we caught that at a great timing, and we had unique considerations that we had to offer Quantum and Rockcliff they're both in terms of access to LNG markets via our LEG and Transco systems as well as an interest in LEG with Quantum which was valuable to them so we will continue to look for those kind of unique opportunities as they pop up where we've got significant value that we can add between us and environs, so I wouldn't say we're not going to look at everything because probably will, but I think we'll remain fairly patient and picky about how we choose our points of growth.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from J.P. Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to touch on Appalachia a bit more and I guess the production outlook there and given how egress constraints impacts up production, just wondering now they have Mariner East online, you have the shell cracker coming here. With higher I guess egress or demand for NGLs? Are you starting to see any more pivot towards liquids rich areas? Or is it really focused still on dry gas more given the higher prices? Just wondering how your conversations with producers are going now when do you think -- how do you think that shape through could growth materialize this year or next year do you think, seems like it's --
Micheal Dunn:
Hey, Jeremy, it’s Michael. We are seeing growth expectations increasing for ’23 in both sides of the rich and the dry. We've got an expansion in Northeast PA underway that comes on line in 2023, unlocking additional volumes through our gathering system and the expansion that we spoke of are really done in the rich areas so we're working with [Ancino] who is the producer of [Indiscernible] acreage from Chesapeake years ago. They have access to both rich and dry and the Flint Cardinal gathering systems that we have and they can found those -- both between the dry and the rich so they have that benefit of being in close proximity there. And so they're just taking advantage of capacity when it becomes available. And we have some interconnect that we're increasing capacity to be honest, well, to put digital volumes and execution at Grover from those systems and so those will come online next year but in fact just been locked our capability to move gas out of the system and then taking advantage of latent capacity so they'll [Indiscernible] pipeline so I would say we are seeing pretty excited growth coming into ’23 from definitely the rich side with the support of NGL and condensate prices that are tied to WTI. And right now we are seeing our processing complex in the OEM as [Indiscernible] where we had some impact as I said earlier from the winter weather with production being hit into those systems. We are back full now and we're working on our interconnect between our OEM systems and the Blue Racer system so that we can utilize link capacity there when it’s available and vice versa, ultimately, and so that will certainly unlock some additional opportunities there to continue to grow rich volume.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Thanks for that and just wanted to touch on higher net gas prices a little bit more, if I could. And whether these higher prices impacts you thoughts on monetizing William Center, Haynesville, ENP assets given the strong price in gas here. And at the same time, higher prices, more volatility leading to wider basis differentials. Do you see this kind of maybe driving more upside in through the Sequent operations in the near term given this backdrop?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question, Jeremy. And I will tell you, I've been really impressed with the way our commercial teams have been working together on Sequent, so I'm going to go into the back -- to the end of your question for really, if you think about Sequent and the way that they run the business of optimization, being in a basin that is starting to get crowded from the transport standpoint and start to have volatility in the bases and allows to capture an aggregate supplies into then turning that into an infrastructure solution is exactly what we bought Sequent for. And that's turning in to be a pretty powerful tool for us and probably while I've certainly expected over time for us to get there, I've been very impressed how quickly the teams have come together to materialize some opportunities on that front. So really excited about that. And I think not just the nice performance that we got out of Sequent here in the first quarter, but as well, just seeing strategically what it's doing for us in terms of intelligence in the basin, and dealing with volatility in basin, as markets grow. And optimization of capacity becomes critical as you get up near the limits of the basins, capacity to export. Again, that allows us then to aggregate those supplies that need optimization, and then that of course, gives us a front seat as it relates to infrastructure solutions for that, so really that has gone according to plan and then some I would say. On the question of monetization of the EMP business, remember that first on the long starter, our primary goal and the real value there is for us to build getting those volumes built up and so the structure that we have today there with Crowheart which incense them to, in very powerful incentive to dramatically grow volumes. And then that cash margin of that kind of regardless of pricing environment that cash margin that flows back to us through the midstream asset is exactly what we're looking for, which is obviously a much more durable solution than depending on high prices here in the current environment. So that strategy remains intact. And we remain very focused on getting the volumes built up in that basin before we would think about the next step of monetization, which may very welcome there. On the angel side, somewhat similar, except that in that structure, the undeveloped not existing producing reserves, but the undeveloped acreage does transfer over as that -- as the development is done by GeoSouthern and they are just doing an incredible job, I want to give them a lot of credit here on the way they've been managing as an operator out there on the drilling operations. And we're really excited to see what that's going to mean for us both in terms of responding to this very strong pricing environment we have on gas and here in the near term, but as well the volumes and the cash margin that we'll get from the downstream assets in the longer term. So both of those are going extremely well. But the Haynesville obviously is going to be a much more near term catalyst for growth just given the ability to very quickly attack and drill out the acreage there in the Haynesville, but some of that value will be transferred in the undeveloped acreage not in the producing acreage, but in the undeveloped acreage will transfer over to GeoSouthern over time. Isn't that Chad?
Chad Zamarin:
Just that is the pace there. Currently, there are three -- at GeoSouthern is running in the Haynesville on our position and at that pace, we would see that reversion of interest on the undeveloped occur sometime in early 2023. So it's a kind of self-fulfilling in the Haynesville. So that'll happen naturally.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys, thank you for taking my question. One modeling one and one kind of citing and permitting longer term one, just on the modeling one, can you remind us I want to make sure I caught this correctly, what was the Sequent contribution in the first quarter? And what do you expect for the full year?
John Porter:
We are speaking to a run rate in our overall combined marketing business of Sequent and our legacy NGL and Gas marketing at $50 million to $70 million for -- on a normal run rate. What we said though, is that the $65 million that segment produced in the first quarter, given the strong start that we've seen, and the price outlook for the rest of the ‘22 means that we'll likely exceed that range for ‘22. But $50 million to $70 million is what we're targeting is sort of a normal run rate for our overall marketing business, which is now combined Sequent and our legacy gas and NGL business.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then on the permitting front, I know there's lots of discussion in DC about doing things that can make development of gas infrastructure asset easier over time, but we just saw the administration in the couple of weeks, revised the some of the NEPA related requirements for gas infrastructure, which strikes me that would actually make it a little more onerous in the citing and permitting process. And we just saw yesterday, a challenge to a license amendment for a Louisiana LNG project that already has an EIS. I'm just curious kind of from your thinking longer term, what do you think the messages that are coming out across the board or in terms of either from policymakers, environmental groups or others in terms of the desire but more importantly, the process for citing and permitting the asset infrastructure?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Michael, great question, that model that we study a lot. And I would just say, first of all, that is not a well-oiled machine we're talking about there and I'm not sure if sometimes the right hand knows what left hand doing in that regard and certainly the FERC got some very clear instruction from the Energy and Natural Resource Committee. So I think that was very helpful in terms of getting the FERC lined out. The CEQ activity that you spoke about was certainly a step backwards, but frankly, really the previous path that the Trump administration set on CEQ was helpful, but it really hadn't -- had that much impact yet on but it definitely was a step backwards. I wonder if that was a little better communication within the administration, I kind of wonder if that would have come out, given the need for that and the desire for natural gas infrastructure to get permitted, but it certainly was a step in the wrong direction. I don't really have a comment yet on that EIS and re-licensing issue that you mentioned, I am not familiar enough with that I'd like comment on that. So we have to just say, yes, we think there's a desire from the administration, and certainly from some of the key Senate committees to streamline permitting. But I'm not sure that everybody's moving in lockstep with that amongst the various agencies just yet, but I'm very hopeful, given the direction that FERC responded to. I'm very hopeful that we'll see that -- to see some work.
Michael Lapides:
Here just following the changes to the policy statement, making a draft and taking comments, et cetera, or something else along those lines?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say a couple of things there. I mean, yes, certainly, that's positive. But as well, we saw a lot of certificates get issued that have been pending for some time there pretty quickly as well post the hearing that the Senate Committee held. And so we thought that was very constructive. And frankly, our discussion with various commissioners indicate that they really are serious about trying to get good projects that have the ability to reduce emissions that are being done within permitted responsibly, including very intense stakeholder engagement. They're serious about getting those permit and we think that’s very thoughtful --.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jean Salisbury from Bernstein.
Jean Salisbury:
Hi, good morning. And how close do you think the Haynesville is turning out of capacity today? Do you think that it will actually run out [Indiscernible] before the next wave of projects come on? Beginning with go front or it's like not that close, but maybe next year?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, this is Chad, Jean. Good question. I think that the Haynesville, it does have takeaway capacity that we see providing relief through probably the next couple of years. I would just note though, that the traditional angel capacity wasn't necessarily built to the markets that need the gas today. So it's not the most efficient path for getting gas to the growing markets, which is why our Louisiana Gateway project, we think makes a lot of sense, we are targeting that project moved directly from the Haynesville south to grow in LNG in industrial markets on the Gulf Coast. So we do see the capacity that will allow the Haynesville growth to continue over the next couple of years. But we see a need for projects to come online in the 2023-2024, sorry 1.4x timeframe.
Jean Salisbury:
Great. That makes a lot of sense. And then sort of a related follow up. We're obviously kind of getting tight on gas takeaway from all of the major tier one databases. Are you starting to see any increase in interest or planned activity from the so called tier two basins like the Barnett or the Flint set the current gas strip?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, Jean this is Michael, we are at capacity. We've got a lot of capacity available at the Rockies, for example. So I would say you'll see some uptick in activity out of the Rockies to move gas out of there with those pipes that were built historically to move that Rockies gas. So there's definitely opportunity to continue to increase from those basins that you called tier two. And we have a large footprint there, certainly in the Rockies. So we're pretty optimistic about that. We're seeing some drilling activity in the Barnett as well. But most of that is keeping production flat to slightly growing on our systems there, a lot of that's been drilled out and it’s more tough environment to drill in with mostly being urban there. But we are seeing some activity that's very pleasing to us with the rate structure that we have there in the Barnett. So I think for us, the producers with takeaway capability and available, you're going to see some increased activity if these prices continue as they happen.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sunil Sibal from Seaport Global.
Sunil Sibal:
Yes. Hi, good morning, folks. And thanks for all the clarity on the call. So I just wanted to go back to the venture capital fund, which was mentioned for clean energy and greenhouse gas monitoring. I was curious, if you could talk about the investment opportunity in there in terms of the size and threshold on returns on that?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure, yes, I would just say, we're being pretty modest in those investments, we have a pretty tight screening process in that regard. And we're not putting large amounts of capital to work right now on that, but it is important capital, because we do think it has a long term be a differentiator, and we've been very clear with ourselves that we want to think about where the buck is going in that regard. And we do think that reducing methane emissions, and overall greenhouse gas emissions from our natural gas value chain is absolutely essential for natural gas to be the powerful tool and be considered the most powerful tool at reducing an impact and positively climate change. So we are dead serious about making sure that on QMRV front, and our ability to in an unassailable way certify responsibly sourced gas, we think that's going to be very important in the long run. And so that's not super expensive because it's not big capital. But we are certainly engaging our organization and making sure that we don't sit around and wait for really good solutions to be developed, we think there's a lot of efforts going on that front. But we think at the end of the day, those are going to have to be really strong unassailable solutions that people can trust. And whether they're an NGO, or they're a gas producer, that it can be trusted. And so we're very focused on that. And we want to be there on the front lines of that, but it is not big capital, that we're investing in that space right now. In terms of the return component, the areas that we're we are investing more sizable amounts of capital, like in our solar business, we are targeting mid-teens returns on those projects. Obviously, that's not available in the merchant space around renewables today, and we're well aware of that, but given the fact that we've got our own load to serve there, and we've got a lot of the essential facilities already in place. That reduced the capital load on that that's what drives the higher returns here. So Chad, again, if you anything to add?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, if you look at that on the venture capital fund, we have been smart investing alongside proven venture capital investors that's not our core business, and is couple of existing funds. On the Context Labs investment we're actually investing alongside -- Energy Partners they are the largest investor in that platform which again we really like a highly credible investor who and are relatively small minority investment so does allow us to have significant impact over and how that technology will get develop in deployment and we want to make sure that we can help bring to market the very best de-carbonization solution and so I think the strategy of finding really promising technologies partnering with investment platforms that understand these markets and know how to put good money to work and then having RC at the table to influence the direction of the technology so that it achieves the goal that we are all trying to achieve and so that’s how we're approaching the investment strategy.
Sunil Sibal:
Got it. Thanks for that. And just one follow up I think you mentioned about the gas prices and I was curious how is that -- production that you have ex player to hedged thought end of 2022 or for 2023.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, So, Sunil thank for the question. As we discussed in Analyst Day our upstream hedging program we've been pretty much focused on supporting our original street guidance and the underlying capital investments that we're making in those upstream businesses protect the plan, upstream gross margin, and those have been at favorable prices versus the original guidance. Couple points, though, because a good portion of our production volumes is really dependent on future production. We generally don't hedge more than about 70% of our expected exposure for the year. Also in this environment with the strong current pricing that we're seeing, we do expect that operators will push for volumes beyond what those original plans were, but until we see those volumes really materialized, we don't intend to hedge more than really 70% of those originally expected volumes. We do as we've already discussed, we do have significant contracts that direct exposure to prices as well above a floor, especially at the Barnett and in the Marcellus. So those contracts also provide us with exposure to gas prices beyond the Upstream JVs.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kania from Wolfe.
Alex Kania:
Great, thanks. Maybe just a follow up from earlier discussions on policy, but from the administration, you've talked about the agencies, but also do you think that there's a chance that we may be able to see some sort of kind of legislative kind of work being done that maybe kind of is kind of sort of an all of the above sort of strategy coupling clean energy incentives with kind of more focus on natural gas. And then maybe on a related question, on policy, are you seeing kind of this department of commerce review on solar kind of impacting your, I guess, the $100 million or so a placeholder that you've got for solar this year, or kind of whether it's impacting any thoughts for future years?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I'll take the first part of that, and I'll hand the solar question off to Chad. First of all, I would just say on the policy question, normally, my immediate response to that would be void to a crowded field of issues, and would be hard to get any movement on energy policy. But Senator Manchin has been very well seated and very well positioned to drive to the solutions, and he has been putting forth some thoughts on energy policy, and I'm very, very thankful for that. Because I think the timing is right, to get some attention to that, and to actually come up with an energy policy. People would I think all of us would question whether we've actually had an energy policy or not. And so I think the timing is right for that. And I think getting some clarification on that would really benefit our country and hopefully, set legislation in place that puts aside some of the ways that we continue to stand in our own way as a country and using our natural gas resource as both a powerful economic driver for us which, I think in the next year or so, we're going to wish we had as well as a powerful geopolitical tool, obviously. And so I think the timing is right. And I think we've got a really good advocate for that in Senator Manchin. So I would just say, we're very hopeful on that front. I'll turn the solar question over to Chad.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, I would just say that we are watching proposed tariffs, we're watching the discussions regarding incentive structures for solar. And I will remind you that our solar program is primarily focused on installing solar and facilities where we utilize power that in many cases is more expensive than standalone solar that we can install. And so we are -- the economics of our investments are primarily driven by our ability to install solar projects that, frankly, compete even without incentives, and almost irrespective of some of the cost pressures that we're seeing. So as it relates to the $100 million that we've talked about this year, I'd say not so much affected by the policy issues. But I will say that we have, we're keeping a close eye on supply chain issues, we are under no time demand to install our solar facilities, by date certain and so we are going to make sure that we time those projects appropriately. We don't get caught subjected to higher prices than we need to pay for materials because of kind of supply constrained issues. And so we're keeping a close eye on the supply chain side of things, which has a much bigger impact, we think, at least for the projects that are currently underway, then kind of the policy issues that we're keeping an eye on.
Operator:
And I would like to turn the call over to your President and CEO, Mr. Alan Armstrong. Please go ahead.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you very much, and appreciate everybody tuning in today and appreciate great questions. I just want to reiterate here on the backhand that the drivers for the growth for the balance of the year are really powerful and really across our base business, the Marcellus and Utica as we discussed, obviously, the Haynesville growth is powerful. And I think people are starting to see strong evidence of that. Deepwater business, we've got a couple of really nice tie in projects this year that will add to value towards the end of this year. And one set or later this year as our drilling operations pick up out there towards the very end of this year, we'll see volumes in the long side or that of course, will be driving the base business as well out there. And then finally, as I mentioned earlier, the Haynesville, we really haven't even seen the power of that yet on the E&P side. So first quarter was definitely not driven by that, because that's really a balance of the year and into ‘23. And really attractive earnings coming out of that area as well. So a lot of great quarter, but a whole lot of firepower left here to drive growth for balance of the year and into ‘23. And with that, I thank you for your attention today and look forward to talking to you soon.
Operator:
And, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Williams Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane :
Thanks [Indiscernible] Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in the Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our president and CEO, Allan Armstrong and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer, Lane Wilson, our General Counsel, and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles, and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. And thanks, Danilo and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We do have a lot of good news to share with you today, but let me just start by saying that our long-term strategy of connecting the fastest-growing natural gas markets with the best supply areas continues to deliver exceptional financial results as demonstrated by these higher-than-expected third quarter financials. As John walk through just a moment, we achieved all-time record results in the third quarter with our adjusted EBITDA of 12% compared to the same period last year driven by growth across all 3 of our major business segments. Given our robust performance today and continued strong fundamentals, we are raising our 2021 EBITDA guidance midpoint for the second time this year to a level that is now 8% above our realized 2020 result which, I'll remind you, came in above expectations last year in a very challenging backdrop. Not only did we deliver more on our financial performance this quarter than we expected, but we continue to make strides in executing on key projects and transactions that give us a clear line of sight to sustain growth for many years to come. We'll talk a little bit about that today, but -- so for right now let me turn it over to John to provide you some insight into the drivers of this all-time record quarter for Williams. John?
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. First of all, just what an incredible quarter we had, and a very high-level summary. The quarter benefited from nice increases in profitability from our Northeast Gathering systems and EPF lift in revenues on our Transco pipeline from new projects have been put into service over the last year. Significant contributions from our upstream operations in the Wamsutter and the benefit of higher commodity prices in our West segment. The positives were offset somewhat by slightly higher operating expenses resulting from increased incentive compensation expenses, reflective of the strong performances unfolding for the year. And you can see that strong performance in our statistics on this page. In fact, once again, we saw improvements in all of our key financial metrics. First, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up $153 million or 12%, setting a new record. And we've seen a 10% increase in EBITDA year-to-date. We'll discuss EBITDA variances in more depth in a moment. Adjusted EPS for the quarter increased $0.07 a share or 26%. AFFO also grew significantly for the quarter, up $217 million or 25%. And AFFO, I'll remind you, is essentially cash from operations, including JV cash flows and excluding working capital fluctuations. If you put our year-to-date AFFO of $3 billion up against capital investments year-to-date of $1.2 billion and dividends year-to-date of $1.5 billion, you can see that we generated over $300 million of excess cash year-to-date. Included in those capital investments I just mentioned with $307 million of maintenance capital. Also, you can see our dividend coverage based on AFFO divided by dividends is a healthy 2.17x for the quarter. This strong cash generation and strong EBITDA for the quarter, along with continued capital discipline, has led to our exceeding our leverage metric goal, where we currently set at 4.04x net debt to EBITDA. You'll see later in our guidance update in the deck that we've moved our guidance for the year from where we were at less than 4.2x for the year now to around 4x at year-end. So really strong performance for the quarter and the year, and the fundamentals are set up for a good fourth quarter and a very good 2022. So now let's go to the next slide and dig in a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, Williams performed very well, realizing a -- 153 million or 12% higher EBITDA. Our upstream operations added $55 million to adjusted EBITDA this quarter. This is almost entirely from the Wamsutter upstream acreage production from the combined assets, mostly from Wamsutter totaled 232 million CFEs a day for the quarter net to our ownership. Again, the Haynesville upstream acreage, but is very little EBITDA given it has only a small amount of existing PDP reserves. And therefore it will take a little time before we see new production and therefore EBITDA, coming from those assets. Our transmission Gulf of Mexico assets produced results that were 8 million more than the same period last year. New transmission pipeline projects added 24 million in revenue versus the third quarter of 2020, including the Southeastern trails project that went into service in the fourth quarter of last year. And a portion of aligning South project that also went into service in the fourth quarter of last year. And you can see this evidenced in the growth in our firmed reserve capacity, which is up 4% from the Third Quarter of last year. Offsetting this somewhat was Gulf of Mexico revenues that were down due to incremental impacts from hurricane shut-ins during the quarter from Hurricane Ida in comparison to the hurricane impacts from the Third Quarter of last year. Just so you have a number there, the incremental impact this year was a negative 5 million versus the Q3 of last year on hurricane impacts. In addition, the transportation revenue increases were offset somewhat by a slight increase in operating expenses, mostly due to employee related expenses. A large part of which can be attributed to higher incentive compensation accruals. The Northeast G&P segment continues to come on strong to attributing $46 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 470 million a day for 5% this quarter versus the third quarter of 2020, while processing volumes grew 20%. The volume growth was predominantly at our joint ventures in the Bradford supply hub where we benefited from a gathering system expansion on that system in late 2019. And at our Marcellus South supply base and where we benefited from more productive wells at larger pads. And just to be clear, because we do not operate Blue Racer Midstream, those volumes are not included in the volume statistics I just quoted. As a result of these increased JV volumes, our EBITDA from equity method investments improved by $45 million, which also included the benefit of additional profits from blue -- blue ratio midstream, again, due to our additional ownership, we acquired in mid-November of last year. Otherwise, in the Northeast, higher revenues from higher processing volumes were offset by higher expenses. Again, with a significant portion of those expenses being related to higher incentive compensation accruals. You go to the West that segment improved by $48 million compared to prior year. 35 million of this increase is related to higher commodity margins due to higher natural gas and higher NGL prices. Otherwise, the remainder of the [Indiscernible] lift in EBITDA comes from lower operating cost due to lower maintenance fees and due to the absence of legal costs and small asset write-offs that occurred in the third quarter of last year. And revenues for the West were only up slightly compared to the same period last year. Now they're a number of big items that go opposite directions in revenues that I'd like to point out. First of all, for example, remember that we've lowered our gathering rates in the Haynesville this year in return for undeveloped upstream acreage from Chesapeake in the South Banfield area in Haynesville. The resulting gathering revenue decreased from this during this quarter was more than offset by rate increases in the Barnett and the [Indiscernible] where our gathering contracts allow us to participate in the upside when prices are higher. Also last year, our partner on Overland Pass Pipeline was paying us a deficiency fee to allow them to pull volume off of OPPL. Those deficiency fees do not exist this year. However, the assets of those fees are being offset by fees from prior gathering volumes otherwise. And to that point, overall gathering volumes in the West were up 1% with higher volumes in the Haynesville and the Piceance being offset somewhat by lower volumes in the Wamsutter in the Barnett. And then finally the Sequent segment produced near flat adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Sequent traditionally makes a significant portion of its profit in the first couple of quarters of the year in the heart of the winter season. And therefore, did not realize profit for the quarter. Sequent does have significant portion of their transportation capacity hedged with basis swaps, as well as our storage inventory hedged with nymex positions, which of course led to the large $277 million unrealized mark-to-market loss on those hedges this quarter, as prices increased and as basis differentials widen in some markets. This, of course, means that the intrinsic value of our storage and transportation positions have gone up significantly as well. And again, you will see a significant portion of that value realized in the first half of 2022. Now to go to the year-to-date results. Again, our year-to-date results showed strong growth of $383 million or 10% and adjusted EBITDA. Many profitable things that are happening across all of our segments. First, I'd point to Winter Storm Uri, which added $55 million in profits to the West. And it contributed $22 million of income -- profit store upstream results. In addition, our upstream operations otherwise have added an additional $83 million year-to-date, almost entirely from the Wamsutter properties. Our transmission in Gulf of Mexico assets is up 30 million or 2% better, with the increase is being driven largely by additional transmission revenues from new projects that have been put into service and incremental revenues from Gulf of Mexico assets, largely due to lower downtime this year versus last year. These positives were partially offset by lower revenues due to a Transco rate place decline following the rate case final settlement in mid-2020 related to just a few markets. And as a reminder, a majority of our Transco rates actually increased in 2019. In addition, expenses are higher this year, year-to-date due to higher incentive compensation expenses resulting, again, from our strong performance. The Northeast [indiscernible] is up $124 million for the year, almost entirely driven by profits from our JV investments, again, mainly from the Bradford supply hub gathering systems and our Marcellus South gathering systems. In addition, we've benefited from increased ownership and Blue Racer Midstream. In total, gathering volumes for the Northeast are up 8% over the third quarter of last year, while processing volumes are up 22%. And then in the West, our West [indiscernible] is up $71 million, and this is on top of the $55 million that we earned from Winter Storm Uri. The $71 million increase is driven by higher commodity margins, higher gathering rates in the [indiscernible] offs where we participate in the commodity upside, and lower operating costs. These positives were offset somewhat by lower deferred revenue in the Barnett, Lower Haynesville gathering rates, which again, were exchanged for upstream acreage and lower Overland Pass Pipeline profits from lower actual volumes shipped and the elimination of the deficiency payments that we were receiving in 2020. And while we did see a 4% gathering volume decline year-to-date in the West, that was mostly offset set by minimum volume commitment payments. Again, this is stacking up to be an incredible year for us. In one of the thing I do want to point out we did pickup in some of the narratives from some of the analysts last night, the view that our operating costs increased and we did ourselves a bit of a disservice by not providing more information on our other operating segment where our E and P upstream operations reside. Actually, if you look on the face of our financial statements, our operating expenses went up $73 million. $12 million of that came from Sequent who, by the way covered most of that with their profits. E&P went up $51 million on costs, but of course, they're making significant EBITDA, so they're covering that with their revenues. And then the rest was related to bonus expenses. So our expenses actually doing -- when you extract Sequent and E&P and the bonus costs are actually down otherwise, so we actually are not seeing a significant -- or are seeing expense increases in pack with the contracts through other than the bonus-related expenses. So I thought I'd clear that up. I will now turn the call back over to Alan to cover a number of key investor focus areas. Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks John. And we'll move on here to slide 4 covering key investor focus areas. Our natural gas focused strategy is delivering even better results than we expected in this high commodity price environment. Demand for natural gas in the third quarter was surprisingly inelastic against this higher-than-expected pricing environment. And while we would prefer more moderate natural gas prices for our business over the long haul, the recent demand resilience highlights the near and long-term role that natural gas will play as a complement to growing demand for renewable energy and emission reduction in general. The past 18 months have demonstrated the benefits of our high-quality portfolio of contracts through which we've thoughtfully built a business that is durable in the down cycles, but exposed to upside potential when it is available. This quarter's results show how meaningful that upside can be even after excluding our upstream results. Along these lines, we also have contracted our business over the years to be protected from inflationary environment, and we see additional upside potential in our G&P businesses due to contract terms that adjust our rate for inflation. In short, our business and its contractual portfolios are set up with the long-term investor in mind, and are positioned to thrive through these cycles. So looking at our financial strength and focus on long-term shareholder value here, we are increasing our '21 financial guidance for the second time this year as we've mentioned with our EBITDA midpoint now residing at $5.525 billion. And that is 8% higher than last year's strong $5.105 billion of EBITDA, and of course that was a feat by itself in the environment that we're in. So we're really excited to show our durability in the down-cycle and our exposure here on the positive side is well coming through. And while the past few years have been characterized by lower commodity prices and reduced producer customer activity, among other challenges, our updated '21 EBITDA and EPS guidance, the midpoint translate into a three-year [indiscernible] of 6% on the EBITDA and 17% on the EPS. So a three-year [indiscernible] on our EPS now it's 17% at that midpoint. And of course, this is proving up our ability to produce reliable and growing earnings under a variety of market conditions. Our financial results in '21 continue to de -risk our Balance Sheet, which is now at about 4.0 leverage. And also of note, we recently issued $1.25 billion of 10-year and 30-year bonds at the most attractive interest rates ever issued here at Williams. This is significant because we are now positioned to allocate capital to a variety of options that will provide compounding value to our long-term shareholder. To this end, we've continued to grow our stable quarterly dividend through our investors and remain steadfast in maintaining the long-term security of the dividend. And most recently, we unveiled our long-term capital allocation priorities, including a $1.5 billion opportunistic share repurchase program that has the potential to enhance shareholder returns beyond the dividend. And perhaps most unique to Williams as we think about capital allocation, is the option we have to grow dependable earnings by investing in the modernization of our regulated transmission systems, which will both grow earnings and as well as reduced emissions across our footprint. Next here, looking at growth, from a project execution point, we continue to deliver on multiple fronts, including bringing online key projects such as lighting South, which we are targeting to bring into full-service earlier than projected and importantly, before the winter heating season. While projects, such as REA, remain in the execution phase, we've continued to receive first in demand full projects on the Transco system. Our 2 recently announced Mid-Atlantic expansions will add a little more than 500 million a day of capacity on the system. And in the coming weeks, we expect to secure precedent agreements for another system expansion, bringing a total of 3 incremental expansion projects on Transco just during the last half of '21. Our natural gas fundamentals are not only supportive of our transmission assets, but also our G&P business and our gathering volumes continue to grow at a rate of nearly 10 times the Lower 48 U.S. gas production volumes. This supports were led by the Marcellus growth where we are also growing a rate that is almost double that of our competitors, and you can see the layout of that in some slides we put in the index. With projects like Leidy South and REA providing takeaway out of the basin, we expect our gathering volumes in the Northwest -- Northeast, sorry, to remain resilient. In fact, we expect to announce a system expansion in the basin soon, underscoring that we don't see takeaway constraints of the near-term deterrent to volume growth in our systems there in our Northeast gathering area. And finally on sustainability. As we think about sustainability both today and into the future, our highly reliable natural gas infrastructure is extremely well-positioned to continue replacing higher carbon fuels while supporting the growth of renewable energy and responsibly-sourced natural gas for LNG export. Looking forward and anticipating future innovations and technologies that we can use on our key energy networks to deliver on our country's clean energy future. And to this end, we are pursuing emerging opportunities like a hydrogen hub near assets in Southwestern Wyoming and are evaluating a large-scale co-development of wind energy, electrolysis, and synthetic gas via [Indiscernible] in the, state of Wyoming as part of our recently announced in MOU with Orsted. Our solar initiative continues to move forward as we now advance the execution of now 12 projects on our systems, and those are as we've mentioned before, large solar arrays that will provide power for our fairly large loads on our compressing and processing. So now, looking at our renewable natural gas efforts, we set a 2021 goal of adding an incremental 5 million a day of renewable natural gas. And we now expect to exceed that goal. We recently signed an interconnect that should enable up to 10 million cubic feet per day of the new source of [indiscernible] supply, bringing our entire already [indiscernible] portfolio close to 25 million cubic feet per day with in-service [Indiscernible], in the '22 through '23 time-frame. A lot going on on that front, seems doing a great job of making sure that we're capturing opportunities in and around our assets there. We do remain steadfast in the view that natural gas will play a role in the world's clean energy future. And our latest efforts to advance responsibly [indiscernible] through the value chain will provide transparency on the sustainability of our operations and help to solidify the role of natural gas and reducing emissions. We're also pursuing sustainable investment opportunities and are pleased to be partnering on 2 strategies with energy impact partners and investment firm that makes venture and growth investments in companies that are optimizing energy consumption and improving sustainable energy. Williams is among the first Midstream investors in the platform, and we're expecting to facilitate diverse investment opportunities that reduce emissions and advance our ESG goals. Finally, our ongoing focus on sustainable operations continue to deliver strong results that are being recognized by our key rating agencies in this state. Williams sits in the top quartile for our industry with rankings that reflect the dedication of our team towards doing the right thing from an ESG perspective. So here in closing, a lot of really positive things to report on this quarter, demonstrating that our intense focus on natural gas-based strategy has built a business that is steady and predictable with continued growth, improving returns, and significant free cash flows. This has translated into a strong balance sheet and a well-covered and growing dividend. And our best-in-class long-haul pipes, like, Transco and Northwest Pipeline, and Gulfstream, are in the right place and in the right markets. And by design, our formidable gathering assets are in the low-cost basins that will be called on to meet gas demand as it continues to grow. The triple-punch of benefits provided by American source natural gas must not be understated as we work to accelerate our clean energy future around the world. As we work to balance sustainability and climate goals with growing energy demand, natural gas will remain a key component of the fuel mix and should be prioritized as renewables complement the more aggressively displaced more carbon-intensive fuels around the world. Natural gas does provide right here, right now, emissions reduction solution that is economically viable and can keep industry and manufacturing here at home. William’s transmission and storage networks are extremely well-positioned to aggregate and bring to scale to multiple mission reduction opportunities, taking out higher carbon fuels while supporting renewable energy and emerging opportunities like hydrogen and carbon capture. So in closing we produced tremendous 3Q results. But more importantly, we have an unmatched platform to continue to deliver growth and lower emissions at the same time. We look forward to helping our customers and stakeholders meet their goals in an environmentally and financially sustainable manner. And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please stand-by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
I just wanted to touch on these strong results this quarter and how we should think about that going forward. If I look at the guidance raise, it doesn't necessarily seem that all -- the benefits that materialized in 3Q fully translate into 4Q. And so just wondering how much of this is sustainable, how much growth -- is this a level that could be built off of into 2022 EBITDA. Just trying to get a sense for what's recurring here in the strength this quarter.
John Chandler:
Yes. We did take an accrual for bonuses for the year, and both on our long-term incentive comp as well. I see a lot of [Indiscernible] adjusting that out of their EBITDA. We don't adjust that out of our EBITDA. So our long-term incentive comp did take some accruals for that as well as our annual bonus, which obviously with this [indiscernible] And so those -- that was a hit to the quarter that would be negative -- on the other side of that, we had about $24 million, I believe, of pricing increase on our NGLs and inventory, and so to the degree that that doesn't increase again, that would offset against that positive that shows up in the quarter. So that's a non-operational issue, if you will, we have to price that inventory up, but to the degree that NGL prices don't move again and that wouldn't show up. So that's just a couple of 1 positive, 1 negative. I will just say we pay attention to the forward strip when we think about our forecast and our guidance, and obviously, those are backward dated, as we sit here, and so our expectations would be the same moving forward as it relates to the E and P business. I will say that's not a huge driver of our business obviously it’s pretty [Indiscernible]. As you can see, it will become larger in '22 as we start to -- the Haynesville starts to get developed. That will be a net positive that where we will build larger sensitivity to gas prices in '22 as the Haynesville starts to, be developed. I would just say we know this was a good quarter in terms of pricing and we're not going to build our business in a way that's just sustained off of high commodity prices, and that's hopefully evident in how we forecast our business as well. Nice to take the winnings when they come to us, but we're not going to build -- we're not going to forecast our business around that. Obviously prices do stay high, then we'll certainly see the rewards.
Alan Armstrong:
And Jeremy, just as it relates to this year's guidance, obviously, I think by our mainstream probably now we're somewhat conservative on how we do things. That's probably a bit of that embedded there. But also we left ourselves some flexibility that relates to the fourth quarter if we wanted to accelerate, for example, gifts to our foundation, we've dealt things like that, that would be expenses from otherwise [Indiscernible] after and so we do have some flexibility and some capacity to do things like that.
Jeremy Tonet:
Moving along here, I guess next question I have is in the build back better build here. Just wondering what implications do you see for your business here it seems like it could be different things that 45 [Indiscernible] some other energy transition initiatives in a bill and at the same time, 15% minimum tax. Just wondering if you could walk us through some of the pluses and minuses that you see. The bill, if passed as written, how would it impact the [indiscernible]
Alan Armstrong:
Well, certainly we would keep our eyes on the alternative minimum tax, and I'll let John speak here in a minute to that. I think as it relates to things like the increasing to 45Q amount, obviously, that would be positive for us, particularly as we think about utilizing our infrastructure for carbon capture and in places like the Gulf Coast where we have a pretty sizable footprint that extends out to some of those water drive reservoirs that the key targets for carbon sequestration. So lots of positives I think in that area on the methane emissions issue. We are really encouraging that to be done in a way that rewards those who reduce methane emissions. We think it's smart to continue to put focus on methane emissions reductions, and we're extremely well-positioned for that. But we would much prefer one that rewards the good actors, here and that, and not just a pure [Indiscernible], but one that does [Indiscernible] those that have been working to reduce their emissions. And we think we stand out in that regard and we think that would be a net positive for us if it's positioned that way. Obviously, we think that makes sense when you're talking about the lowest, carbon content hydrocarbon. It seemed a little bit odd that you would just put a pure tax on that when it has such an ability to help reduce emissions around the world. So we're hopeful that we'll get to a wide place on that, but we think that actually could be positioned in the way that could be somewhat of a positive force. So we will look forward to that. So I think that's, I don't know, Chad or...
Chad Zamarin:
Yeah, Jerry. This is Chad, just on the last note on the hydrogen front. The hydrogen incentives as currently drafted would be I think a good complement to our current strategy. And so we've been working closely on that front because that would be supportive as well as our -- supportive of our goals on that front.
Alan Armstrong:
Just as it relates to the alternative minimum tax. There's still a lot left to be discovered there. I would tell you on balance, obviously, we prefer a lower corporate tax rate and an alternative minimum tax than the inverse. A&P is just timing of pipe tax payments, higher tax rates forever and permanent. If that's where we land, the question is going to really be around that NOL usage against under the old tax scheme while we had an alternative minimum tax before. You could take up the 80% of your NOL's against your income, for an alternative minimum tax calculation. That's not clear in the current legislation. As we've thought about it, we've seen -- let's say we could take 50% of our income out, usage of our NOL's. That alternative minimum tax would be not that size before us. We'd probably be able to cover it with excess cash flow. So that's how we look at it now. But just to be clear, there's still a lot of questions around the usage of its [indiscernible] going forward. Can you use 50%, 80% or use them at all? And so that's still yet to be understood. And just you know is an additional factor. We're carrying forward $4 billion [indiscernible]
Jeremy Tonet:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christine Cho with Barclays. Your line is open.
Christine Cho:
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe with the out-performance this year and [indiscernible] tracking below your target, how should we think about the execution of the buyback that you announced a couple of months ago?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, Christine, thank you for your question. I kind of expected we would get that. And I would just say that we've been pretty clear about how we're thinking about that, and it is a multiple of the cost of our 10-year debt costs of the market per 10-year debt costs, and so you can see that -- that spread with price actually kind of wide -- or did widen. And so that yields continued to go down and there was way from that multiples earned a period since we announced buyback. But I would say as we don't make investment in that or if we continue to invest in earnings, either one of those will continue to drive our credit metrics to more positive place, which will drive down the 10-year debt, which then will improve the price on [Indiscernible] would lower the yield, which we would invest in. I think it's pretty natural in terms of how that will occur if money is flowing in a way that is improving our credit metrics, you would expect our 10-year rate to continue to improve, which we continue to lower the yields and eventually, we would hit a point at which you would be buying back, but we certainly stand ready. And if that price moves to that zone, will be anxious to be taking advantage of that, if that occurs. nothing's really changed from our perspective on that other than the fact that our amount of free cash flow continues to expand and accelerate. But other than that, nothing's really changed here this quarter since we announced that.
Christine Cho:
And you would be okay with just having your leverage trend below 4x if the opportunity to buy back factored in presents itself.
Alan Armstrong:
That's right. And I will just say though, as we've mentioned before, obviously the one kind of unique option we have is continued investment in the right base in a way that modernize this and reduces emissions on our system. And so that's not a hair-trigger, so to speak, because we have to plan for that and that permitting process that we don't snap the fingers at. That's something that takes time, but that's obviously another place that money will flow through our capital allocation costs.
Christine Cho:
That actually was my follow-up question around the modernization program. Can you just remind us how this works? How much you spend per year, the return how quickly you can earn on the spend and then I guess as you mentioned, what regulatory process we're looking at?
Micheal Dunn:
[Indiscernible] Hi Christine it's Micheal, we're we're working on both fronts with Northwest Pipeline customers, as well as Transco customers and working to enact a tracker. If we can get to a position with them. And if we can't, we would go through our normal rate case process to seek recovery of those emissions reduction projects. And we believe we've got a worth of about $2 billion or so that we could invest between both Northwest and Transco. On those projects that could be a very long-term program, over maybe six years or so. So would you start doing the math on that, that's $3 to $500 million a year potentially that we could deploy there. Depending on the spend profile and how many projects we want to take on at a time.
Christine Cho:
If you don't come to an agreement with your customers, would you have to recover it through a rate case or is there something quicker?
Micheal Dunn:
No, we would have to go through the rate case process and that's obviously one of the reasons why we would like to have a tracker to accelerate that recovery and not have to go through the thrush and the rate case and the disruption that occurs with the customer base there. But we're prepared to do that if we need to, but we would certainly like to do it through a tracker mechanism. Very similar to what many of our customers are doing in their jurisdictions.
Christine Cho:
And the returns?
Micheal Dunn:
Returns would be very similar to what our regulated returns would be on either Transco and Northwest Pipeline once those rate case outcomes are known.
Christine Cho:
Great. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
And Christine, I'll just add there just to remind folks on -- when we do file those rate case, we still -- we do go ahead and raise our rates. We don't have to wait for the settlement in rate case once we file those rates. So that is your call that -- we hold that in reserve sometimes pending that. So -- but we do have the authorities go ahead and charge higher rates.
Christine Cho:
Right. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Your line is open.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi, good morning, guys. I wanted to start off a little bit here. You've had a strong performance last year, strong performance this year, or heading into the end of the year, you should be based on your guidance, you've had a growth target in the 5% to 7% range. The question I have is, does any of the performance in this year, takeaway from next year? But at the same time, you've announced several Mid Atlantic projects. You intimated that there's another one potentially coming in your prepared remarks. I was just wondering if you can share some detail about the return expectations of these new projects, and are they high enough to help drive growth forward. Is there a backlog of more of these projects that we can see more announced overtime?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Shneur, thank you. First to the projects, I would just say our returns generally continue to improve. One of -- it's been, as we've said many times, it's a double-edged sword about the difficulty off building projects. It certainly has been detrimental to the country and the industry overall. But to the degree that you're the incumbent with pipe in place and you could expand those in brownfield. It effectively expands your return opportunity in that regard. So I would just say that the returns in general, not saying that they always will be that way, but in general, these returns that for these mid-Atlantic projects that we're mentioning are at least as good as Atlantic Sunrise or better. And so that's kind of the way to think about that REA 's and attractive return projects as well. And the question of how many we have, we keep the slide updated in there about the number of projects in development in our appendix. And it always looks like it's the same old slide, but in reality, that we are moving projects from development into execution. And we have new projects flowing in there that are keeping that pipeline very full. So I will just tell you, we don't see much backing off in the way of opportunity for expansions of our transmission systems. And with that obviously will flow gas from the low costs, reducing areas. And we're well-positioned to capture that on the gathering side as well. So despite what you might think, when you listen to the media and the rhetoric, it's certainly not showing up in people's reluctance to make long-term commitments to our transmission systems for supplies that they know they're going to need. Whether that's the backup renewables or whether it is a base load people, and our customers certainly understand that it takes time to build these projects and that it takes long term commitments to be built. that's what we'll continue to see.
Shneur Gershuni:
Really appreciate the color there. Maybe if we can return to the return of capital priorities. In your response to Christine's question, I think you were fairly clear in terms of you were looking for the opportunities to execute, but at the same time, your balance sheet is obviously doing better than expected. There's a priority over growth, how we discussed in the last question here. Just curious if one of the other arrows in the quiver shall we say, would be around the dividend. Are there any thoughts around a dividend step-up, or specials, or is there a different payout ratio that we should be thinking about as part of your return of capital strategies?
John Chandler:
Yes, I would say never say never, but I would say right now, we just continue to maintain that steady growth and continue to maintain the growth in our business that's commensurate with our cash flow growth and obviously to continue to maintain that high level of coverage of the dividend there. So don't expect -- we don't expect anything special if we did some asset sale and, by the way, don't run off with that one, because there's no
Alan Armstrong:
intent behind that was something special or some structure that delivered a bunch of cash then we would consider that. But right now, there's -- I think you should expect steady growth in our dividend that's well covered and very durable. And we think this is the business we've built, the long-term durable business as I think we've proven out. And we think that our yield on our dividend audit continued to trade down plus the durability and the growth in our dividend. And I think it's a pretty hard. Dividend to compete but frankly, given its security and the growth in it by both utility sector and within our peer group. And we think eventually we'll be rewarded for that.
Shneur Gershuni:
So all else equal buybacks are probably the preferred [Indiscernible] at this point, if you hit investor returns section?
Alan Armstrong:
Well again, I mean we've laid out the options. The market will tell us whether we need to buy back shares because it's presenting an opportunity or not. And if it presents itself. We'll be all over it. And if it does, the value will continue to generate through these other notes.
Shneur Gershuni:
Perfect. Thank you very much, really appreciate the color today.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. Good morning. You touched on this earlier, but if we assume that the Biden administration passes for [Indiscernible] on admission, what exactly could that mean for your business? I guess, how further ahead are you than peers, and do you think this helps you win new customers or pull volumes from competitors?
John Chandler:
Yes. I don't know exactly where we stand up against peers. I know where we stand on the One Future measures, and we're almost orders of magnitude lower than what's required for our elements of the sector. So again, that One Future is a 1% all the way from the E&P space, all the way through the [indiscernible] or to the delivery to burner tips. so we're excited to be a part of that, but there's a certain percentage of that 1% that's allocated to our sectors of the business. And in those cases, we are way below and as I said, orders of magnitude below back. So we think we stand well, but we really don't know exactly where other competitors might stand on that. And therefore, what kind of advantage might [indiscernible] But I do believe that we need good, honest, reliable operators in this space that are going to be focused on methane emissions reductions. Ernest Moniz, back when he was Secretary of Energy, really made it clear to the gas industry that, hey, I love this industry, I think it has a lot to offer from an emissions reduction standpoint. But you guys have got to get your methane emissions. That's going to be your Achilles' heel if you don't go after this. And so we've been on a mission to reduce that. I think we're extremely well-positioned if the methane emissions are positioned right. And frankly, I think it's a real positive to make sure that we're reducing flaring, we're reducing emissions and VOC s from tanks in the field. I think all these things are very positive for our industry, and we certainly intend to continue to be a leader in that space.
Praneeth Satish:
Got it. And I'm wondering if you could just give us a sense of how large the projects are that you're working on with Orsted as part of that JV or MOU [Indiscernible] returns per day basis or absolute dollar cost basis, just trying to get a sense of how big the projects are. And then just tied to that. it's the hydrogen subsidies that are part of the reconciliation bill passed. Would that accelerate your hydrogen development plans?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, it is in Chad, thanks for the question. Maybe starting with your last question. Yes, the incentives will be supportive in accelerating project opportunity. I mean, as we've discussed, hydrogen has been -- without an incentive structure and really needs an incentive structure to help support being projects jumpstarted. And I would also say that it's still early days on the hydrogen front. We're at the pilot stage. I would characterize project opportunities, but as far as our ambition goes, and if things prove out, if costs continue to come down, which we expect they would incentives get passed in Wyoming, for example, Alan talked about the potential to develop an energy hub in Wyoming in partnership with watershed and others. You could envision a very large
Danilo Juvane :
wind power production facility, 3 to 500 megawatts, if not larger, there's tremendous wind resource in Wyoming that hasn't been fully developed because it's not easy to build electric infrastructure to deliver that power to markets outside Wyoming. We have pipeline infrastructure that can deliver that energy at other parts of the country. We can build a very substantial wind power generation platform tied to several 100 megawatts of hydrogen production that we can move through we believe we could move through our existing infrastructure to customers across our footprint. Those are big ambitions.
Micheal Dunn:
And I will tell you again, its very early innings, but the pieces are coming together and we're very hopeful, we're going to start by crawling before we walk and put some projects online that I think will demonstrate the feasibility, but that gives you just one example and they are looking at others across our footprint, but that's one example of where we think we can get to scale.
Praneeth Satish:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Spiro Dounis:
Good morning [indiscernible] (ph). First question, just on inflation from 2 different angles. First, just curious if you guys are seeing or do you expect to see any sort of impact on the cost side? And then alternatively, imagine a lot of your contracts, such on the G&P side, probably had some sort of escalators in there tied to CPI or PPI. So curious, how should we think about any sort of upward pressure on fees as we head into next year in this environment?
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning. This is Micheal. We are watching with supply chain issues and the inflation issues very closely. We got in front of the supply chain concerns early on with treating chemicals and lube and things of that nature to make sure that we had what we need to operate the business. And I do would expect, we are seeing price increases, fuel, diesel, gasoline, prices are up through this small component of what our overall expenses are in business. And we could likely to be managed appropriately. As you mentioned, the bulk of our gathering and processing agreements do have escalators in them, so we are protected there on the gathering and processing side and on the transmission side, we could obviously take advantage of rate cases if we need to. But we've done a really good job managing our costs for several years now. And so we've been in very good shape for a number of years and managing that. And I suspect our teams will continue to do a great job at that. Going forward to year and take advantage of opportunities where we can to control our costs, but we will see some increased costs and there's no doubt about that. And the escalators that we have, there's various escalators that we use in the gathering and processing agreements. And I believe that would definitely cover the expense increases that we'll see.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. Thanks for that color, Mike. Second question just switching gears slightly to the Permian. I know you are all focused on gas basins and that's certainly served you well. But I know at one you had considered Blue Barnett as a pipeline out of the basin. And obviously, I think we're seeing that basin tighten a lot faster than we all are expected with some of your peers talking about another pipeline, potentially as early as 2024. Just curious on any interest levels in the Permian in general and how you're thinking about Blue Barnett and your competitive nature there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah. We've certainly positioned ourselves where well there to take part in projects that come up. And I would just tell you, so far, we like the risk mitigation that we get out of the kind of projects that we do with 2 or more market or unit and not 7 and 10-year kind of contracts that are just basis differential pipeline, that once that basis differential slides, they come out of the mining. And with a number of pipelines in the market today that fit that bill, every yard getting written down or struggling for re-subscription. Not yet in the Permian, but you say it's always an issue of risk-adjusted return and those are big risks on the back end of pipeline that are easy to use more on the front end, but hard to ignore on the back end. And we think about our business on a very long-term sustainable basis. And so tends to drive us towards longer-term contracts, and ones that we know that the value will be in there for the transportation for the long haul. I'm not telling you that we will be looking to take part, but with the returns would certainly have to be better than our other projects that we see within our capital stack.
John Chandler:
And it's jagging and we have been expanding the capabilities of Transco, received volumes from the Permian. You think about our project strategy. If you look at the projects that and then approved projects we focused on, we connect directly to demand. And that is a very strong, sustainable, I think strategy. And as Alan mentioned, typically the demand contracts are very long tenured and we'll keep an eye on Permian [Indiscernible] as you mentioned, unless we can tie those projects to long-term contracts or to demand that we know will be sustainable. Then, we will probably fit that bill.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. Appreciate the color guys, and John, congrats on the upcoming retirement.
John Chandler:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Colton Bean with Tudor Pickering Holt. Your line is open.
Colton Bean:
Morning. So just circling back briefly on the Wyoming energy hub, is that an area we're willing to look to own a stake in the wind and electronic facilities? Would you prefer to lease the surface acreage or set and then participate further downstream on the transportation side?
Micheal Dunn:
I think -- we're valuing a lot of different possibilities. And clearly, we're going to focus on whether we have strength and capabilities. The strategy there is to -- [Indiscernible] could be a part of the energy systems for, not just the next 10 to 20 years, but for the next 100 years -- what we're good at. We're going to partner
Colton Bean:
with really strong, capable partners like Orsted and others. And so I think will certainly set of skills and infrastructure to make these projects possible. We're going to want to make sure that we participate where it makes sense, but I'd say it's a little bit early on to understand exactly where we're going to be putting our investments. And so, clearly after the Orsted announced we're not going to -- we're not a wind power Company. We're not a technology providers to work with us whether or not we invest in those parts of the value chain. I think we will stay unprepared to do that, if it is a smart place to invest, and what we're doing on the solar front, it's what we're doing in certain R and G opportunities. But, it's still pretty early on to figure out how all those pieces come together. But, we're constantly
Micheal Dunn:
evaluating that.
Colton Bean:
And then just briefly in the West, it looks like NGL transportation volumes stepped up a bit more than NGL production. Are you seeing a rebound in volumes coming into Overland Pass from the north, is there anything else to point to you there?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. Well, we're already seeing some production increases from our assets out. I'm not going to talk too much about the third-parties coming in there, but we are seeing some really good uplift from a processing plants. And I think recovery, there has been off and on throughout the summer in -- coming into the fall here is that we're seeing an opportunity to bring in additional ethane into the systems as well.
John Chandler:
And we were able in the Wyoming area, even though this should have showed up in production volumes coming out on the C3. I think it's always a good thing to pay attention to the C3+ volumes as obviously the ethane comes in and out based on pricing. And C3+ is kind of a better indicator of what's available on a regular basis. But I would say that the Patrick Draw Facility in Wyoming that we picked up earlier in the year, which was an adjacent plant to Echo Springs, shows up and those volumes came directly in to our system as well. And so we also picked up some volumes off the competitor pipeline there during the bankruptcy process from South Glynn. And so those volumes flowed into this as well. So there at [indiscernible] springs are Wamsutter facility really been able to pick up the equity volumes that are coming to us. So some of that equity would've gotten produced some of it would've gotten on a competitor pipeline. All of that is not coming into our pipeline. And so that's some of that pickup you see.
Colton Bean:
Okay. I appreciate that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chase Mulvehill with B of A. Your line is open.
Chase Mulvehill:
Good morning, everybody. I guess you spoke briefly about responsibly sourced natural gas during the [Indiscernible] remarks, but just a quick follow-up here. And I'd like to ask if you're seeing more interest from LNG liquefaction operators or really more interest from utility customers. And then I guess if you look at this, responsibly sourced natural gas, what's really the constraint to seeing quicker market adoption of responsibly source natural gas.
Micheal Dunn:
Hey, this is Chad. Thanks for the question. What I would say is that we are seeing strong interest from both LNG off-takers and utility customers. We have a wellhead to water and a wellhead to [indiscernible] of strategy with respect to [Indiscernible] been extremely listed on our plans and [indiscernible]because we've been working very hard and walk as Allan mentioned, to have a very credible solution in place. And I would tell you that we're clearly seeing a need within the marketplace to demonstrate not only within our footprint, but the work with our upstream partners and to work with our downstream customers to really track the full life cycle emissions footprint of the gap than flows through our systems. And so we will be announcing several solutions that we are going to be focused on delivering for our customers. We have been in discussions with several of our customers where we think we can marry the solutions that we're developing with our producing partners efforts as well as our LNG customers and our utility customers. And we want to be able to shine a very credible light on the gap that we move versus drive down as admissions over time and just circling back to Alan's comments. Also, the Transco system is the largest, most flexible pipeline system here in the United States. We had the benefit of having multiple lines and our right of way. We can do a lot with that system to demonstrate a lower emissions footprint, today. And to show a continually decreasing emissions footprint over time, we'd want to make sure we can do that in a very credible manner. And I do truly believe we're working with the Sequent team to make sure we did market. We'll responsibly sourced products and we are seeing a real intense focus on that front to the point where we've even had meetings with utility customers that have totaled. They are looking at the midstream providers to understand the emissions footprints of their potential gas supply. And they're going to factor that into their decisions with respect to how they source their gas. We think that sets up very well for us, again, because we've got I think the most modern, most efficient system in the United States.
Chase Mulvehill:
And some quick follow-up on Sequent, I guess, first on responsibly sourced natural gas, you probably got a better view than most people. Are you seeing responsibly sourced natural gas get a premium out in the market today? And if not, what do you think will be the catalyst where responsibly sourced natural gas will actually start getting a premium out in the market?
Micheal Dunn:
I wouldn't think of it in terms of premium. I think in terms of the demand for our space is going to continue to drive, I think, the responsibly sourced gas, whether that -- whether you consider that to be a premium or, at some point, it will become competitive cost to play. I think it will reflect in natural gas prices and in demand for natural gas. There have been a few marketed RSG products out there and they haven't -- they think maybe attractive at a small premium. I would also say though I don't know that anyone -- no one has yet truly tag an RSG product from wellhead water well hadn't earned it in a way that I think can be credibly marketed. But we don't think of it in terms of premium. We think of it in terms of this is going to be good for us, differentiate for what we can provide to our customers and therefore, support their goals as well as our emission goal.
Alan Armstrong:
I think in the current environment, you should think about it in the context of that somebody is going to sign up for a long-term supply. Even that it's an indexed price supply. That's competitive in the market. They're going to want to know that they are -- that's the supply that is not going to have a negative connotation with it. And so I would say when it comes to doing long-term contracts at index pricing, that people are going to be asking those questions and the tight right now would you say the tide is going to go to the runner, so to speak, the responsively [Indiscernible] gap to the degree that somebody can prove that up or demonstrate that they are on a fast available to prove that out. So I think that's about as far as it's gone at this point, but, I think it's certainly something, and I think it's pretty strong support across the industry for making that more of a determinant in the marketing space. And we certainly want to be a part of that. But it's got to be credible, reliable, and something that's got good strong data behind it that ultimately could perhaps be even trade it. And so that's what we're focused on.
Chase Mulvehill:
It all makes sense. Appreciate the color. I'll turn it back over.
Operator:
And our final question comes from the line of Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global. Your line is open.
Sunil Sibal:
[indiscernible] good morning, folks. And thanks for squeezing me in. My first question related to the 1.2 billion of high return growth projects that you've highlighted in your capital allocation framework. I was just curious. I think you talked about some big projects in Gulf of Mexico and then, obviously, on the gas side, about, the Atlantic projects. Are there any other big projects we should be thinking of when we think about that $1.2 billion annual spend?
Alan Armstrong:
I think that pretty well got it captured. I think the $1.2 billion on normal capital spend is going to go first to the big projects on Transco, some of which we've mentioned today, our continued gathering system expansions. Even though those are more limited. We're really excited about the dollars we're investing right now in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico to support big client like the Well Prospect. And so the deep-water Gulf of Mexico is going to be a real driver of growth as you look out 3 years. And then beyond that, as we've mentioned, many times, investing in the modernization of our rate base, which will come with emissions reduction along our systems. And about $400 million of Solar projects that we are moving rapidly through the development stage right now and starting to move towards execution on those projects. Those are the primary drivers that hasn't really changed a whole lot. I would say some of the projects on Transco, are moving up from our development list into execution list. But other than that really not a whole lot has changed since we laid out our capital allocation footprint.
Sunil Sibal:
Okay. Got it. And then one thing related to that, so is 3.5 to Forex kind of leverage level the right way to think about the additional debt, which could come with those kind of capital spend?
John Chandler:
I would just say our -- depending on what happens with the price of our stock versus the cost of our debt will dictate a little bit of that, but there's another way. If the price of the stock came down or the yield -- yields came up in a way that mix is multiple of our 10-year debt, and money would go towards buying back stock and we would be running at the higher end of that range. If that doesn't occur, you'll see that drift down depending on how much we allocate towards the modernization projects that we talked about. And so those are the immediate variables that we'll be navigating between. But if we -- I'll just say it's pretty strong, multiplying effect as our EBITDA continues to grow and continuing to invest in earning projects. And our EBITDA continues to grow, that move down on the debt metric. And this starts to move pretty fast. That as you see it's not -- that's not just in forecast, what you're seeing in real-time here as we continue to overperform on our debt metrics, as our EBITDA.
Sunil Sibal:
Okay, got it. And then once again related to that. So when I think about your 10-year bonds you use versus the? Obviously, this year, it's kind of come in a fair bit. But [Indiscernible] that metrics [Indiscernible] dividend you were as 10-year bond yields spread. And how does -- what do you think is a normalized kind of metric to look at when you think about your stock buyback decisions. Thanks.
John Chandler:
[Indiscernible] from a debt yields standpoint, it feels like we're probably going to be hovering in this 2.5% to maybe 3% range for a while on the one hand feels like treasury rates start to move a little bit now. So we'll have to see what happens on that front. Credit spreads though, I think we're performing obviously very well and I think the sector is performing fairly well as we've seen. Credit spreads tightened a little bit. We just saw that in our recent bond yields, incredible demand for our -- for mid-part papers. So I don't think we expect long-term rates, 10-year rates with the 2.5% range, but it doesn't feel like probably going to be 3.5 or 4. So that's the first part of your question. How do we see rates, probably 3%. The other part of your question might be getting that what's the multiple? And we're not disclosing that if that's your question on dividend yields relative to that 10-year rate, that's [Indiscernible] feel smart really to signal to the market with that point is.
Sunil Sibal:
Got it. I thought I would try anyways. Thanks for all the color.
John Chandler:
Fair enough.
Operator:
I will now turn the call back over to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, great. Thank you all very much for joining us. Really excited to present for the benefits of all the hard work of our employees around the Company that occult produce such a terrific quarter, both through continued great operations as well as a lot of the transactions that we've executed on this year that are driving some of these. And so it's a real pleasure to get to talk about great performance that the organizations produced. And we look forward to doing that in the future. Many times more so thank you all very much for joining us.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Mishawna, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in the Williams Company. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles, and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, and thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. Our long-term strategy of connecting the fastest-growing natural gas markets with the best supplier continues to deliver solid financial results as demonstrated by our strong second quarter financials across our key metrics. Our stellar results this year were supported by equally strong fundamentals that demonstrate how sticking to this strategy has put us in an enviable position. As evidence, Williams gas gathering volumes grew 6% in the first half of 2021, while the U.S.'s natural gas production volumes actually declined by 0.4%, continuing to prove that our assets are in the low-cost basins. We expect a constructive natural gas macro backdrop to continue to drive significant value for our business. Recent commitments to Transco market area expansions coupled with producer commentary on Transco projects such as our Leidy South and Regional Energy Access projects are clear pathways to growth for our Northeast gathering volumes for years to come. We will walk through more details of our business in just a moment, but I want to first call attention to our 2020 sustainability report, which we just published last week. As this report details, we are making headway on critical ESG-related fronts. For example, becoming the first North American midstream company to set a near-term climate goal based on right here, right now emission reduction opportunities and making steady progress on developing our leaders for the future. We're also looking to the future as our nationwide infrastructure footprint is well suited and adaptable to renewable energy sources like clean hydrogen and RNG blending. Williams' ongoing focus on sustainable operations positions us well to meet clean energy demand for generations to come. In fact, we are now up to 7 renewable natural gas sources flowing into our gas transportation systems, and we have 9 more that are in progress. I hope you can find some time to visit our website and read our new sustainability report. But right now, let me turn things over to John Chandler for a review of our 2Q and year-to-date results. John?
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. At a very high-level summary, the quarter benefited from nice increases in profitability from our Northeast gathering systems, an uplift in revenues on our Transco pipeline from new projects that have been put into service over the last year and contributions from our upstream operations in the Wamsutter. These positives were offset somewhat by slightly higher operating expenses resulting from increased incentive compensation expenses, reflective of the strong performance that is unfolding this year. And you can see the strong performance in our statistics on this page. In fact, once again, we saw improvements in our key financial metrics. First, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up $77 million or 6%, and we have seen a 9% increase in EBITDA year-to-date. We will discuss EBITDA variances in more depth in a moment. Adjusted EPS for the quarter increased $0.02 a share or 8% and AFFO grew for the quarter similar to our growth in EBITDA. AFFO is essentially cash from operations, including JV cash flows and excluding working capital fluctuations. If you put our year-to-date AFFO of $1.948 billion up against our capital investments year-to-date of $737 million and our dividends of $996 million, we have generated about $250 million of excess cash year-to-date. Included, as a side note, included in the capital investments is about $160 million of maintenance capital. Also, you can see our dividend coverage based on AFFO divided by dividends is a healthy 1.96x year-to-date. This strong cash generation and strong EBITDA for the quarter, along with continued capital discipline, has led to our exceeding our leverage metric goal where we're currently set at 4.13x debt-to-EBITDA. You will see later in our guidance update in this deck that we've moved our guidance for the year from being around 4.2x by the end of the year to now less than 4.2x debt-to-EBITDA for the year. So really strong performance for the quarter and the year, and the fundamentals are set up for a good second half of the year. So now let's dig a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, Williams performed very well this quarter. Our upstream operations added $19 million of incremental EBITDA this quarter. And this EBITDA was entirely from our Wamsutter upstream acreage. Remember that we owned the BP Wamsutter acreage the entire quarter, but only owned the Southland acreage for 1 month during the quarter. Production from the combined Wamsutter assets totaled 6.9 Bcf for the quarter. The Haynesville upstream acreage produced very little EBITDA, given it has only a small amount of PDP reserves. And therefore, it will take some time before we see new production and therefore, new EBITDA coming from these assets. Now moving to our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets. They produced results that were $31 million more than the same period last year. New transmission pipeline projects added $25 million in incremental revenues versus the second quarter last year, including the Southeastern Trails project that went into service during the fourth quarter of last year, as well as a portion of the Leidy South project that also went into service in the fourth quarter of last year. And you can see this evidenced in the growth in our firm reserve capacity, which is up 5% from the second quarter of 2020. In addition, our Gulf of Mexico revenues were up somewhat due to less shut-in issues compared to the second quarter of last year. In addition, commodity margins from processing volumes for processing the Gulf of Mexico gas was about $5 million due to higher NGL prices and higher volumes. These revenue increases were offset somewhat by a slight increase in operating expenses, again, mostly due to employee-related expenses, a large part of which can be attributed to higher incentive compensation accruals. The Northeast G&P segment continues to come on strong, contributing $46 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 750 Mcf a day or 9% this quarter versus the second quarter of last year, while processing volumes grew 33% and set a new record. The volume growth was predominantly at our JVs in the Bradford Supply Hub, where we benefited from a gathering system expansion on that system in late 2019; and at our Marcellus South supply basin, where we benefited from more productive wells of larger pads. And just to be clear, because we do not operate Blue Racer Midstream, those volumes are not included in our volume statistics. As a result of this volume growth, though, our EBITDA from our equity method investments improved by a little over $36 million, which also includes the benefit of additional profits that we do receive from Blue Racer Midstream due to the additional ownership we acquired in mid-November last year. Now moving to the West G&P segment. It was down $21 million compared to the prior year. However, remember that first, we did agree to reduce gathering rates in the Haynesville in return for receiving upstream acreage in the South Mansfield area of the Haynesville. Again, as I mentioned, we are not yet seeing the benefit of those upstream assets but we have just named an operating partner to begin developing that acreage. The impact of the gathering rate reduction was about a negative $15 million for the quarter. In addition, in the quarter, we also saw $9 million less EBITDA due to a deficiency fee that One Oak paid us last year related to OPPL, which allowed them to pull volume that they had otherwise submitted to OPPL last year. One Oak does not have that volume obligation to OPPL this year, and therefore, we did not see the deficiency revenue this year. And finally, we did see a $9 million decline in deferred revenue from our Barnett Shale gathering assets, which is a noncash step-down in revenues. So other than those 3 negatives, namely the lack of efficiency revenue on OPPL, the Haynesville rate decline and the deferred revenue step-down in the Barnett, our West assets were otherwise up $12 million versus the second quarter of last year. And this is in large part due to higher NGL margins, where once again, in our commodity marketing group is realizing more profit from elevated NGL prices. And while our overall gather volumes in the West were down about 3.5% versus the second quarter of last year, this was more than offset by better gathering rates, where in the Piceance and the Barnett, our contracted gathering rates are influenced by commodity prices. So now moving to year-to-date results. Year-to-date, our results show growth of $230 million of EBITDA or roughly a 9% in EBITDA, driven, of course, by the impact of Winter Storm Uri in the first quarter and by many of the same positive factors that I just mentioned affecting second quarter growth. Combined between our marketing activities and our upstream operations in the Wamsutter, winter storm Uri had a combined positive impact of $77 million. In addition, our upstream operations otherwise have added an additional $27 million year-to-date. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets are up $22 million year-to-date or about 2% better, with this increase being driven largely by additional transmission revenues from new projects that have been put into service and incremental revenues from Gulf of Mexico assets, largely due to lower downtime this year versus last year. These positives were partially offset by lower revenues from 1 less billing day on a regulated transmission pipeline and higher expenses, where, last year, expenses were delayed due -- some due to COVID and because this year's expenses, again, are higher due to higher incentive compensation expenses resulting from our strong performance. Our North G&P assets are up $78 million, almost entirely driven by profits from our JV investments, namely from the Bradford Supply Hub gathering system and our Marcellus South gathering systems. In addition, we benefited from the increased ownership of Blue Racer Midstream. In total, gathering volumes for the Northeast are up 10% versus 2020, while processing volumes year-to-date are up 24%. And then finally, the West, West E&P is up $23 million versus the year-to-date last year, and this is on top of the $55 million that we earned from winter storm Uri. The $23 million increase is driven by higher commodity margins and slightly lower operating costs, offset by lower Barnett deferred revenues, lower Haynesville gathering rates, which were exchanged for upstream acreage, and lower OPPL deficiency revenues that I just mentioned in my 2Q remarks. Otherwise, we did see a 5% gathering volume decline year-to-date, but that again was more than offset by MVCs and higher gathering rates, as again, I mentioned in my second quarter remarks. Again, this is stacking up to be a very good year for us. I'll now turn the call back over to Alan to cover a number of key investor focus areas. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, John, and we're moving on here to the key investor focus areas here on Slide 4. First of all, regarding our financial expectations, we are on track to generate EBITDA closer to the high end of our guidance range that we just increased at the last earnings call. The resilience of our business has supported our financial results and helped us recently overachieve against our previous leverage metric goal of 4.2x. As a result, we recently received a Moody's upgrade to Baa2 and now have a BBB equivalent credit rating amongst the 3 key rating agencies. Our free cash flow outlook for 2021 remains intact. And in fact, the long-range plan unveiled during our most recent Board strategy session forecasted continued steady growth in EBITDA and continued improvement in our credit metrics. Importantly, our long-range plan also shows that even after funding these many growth opportunities, our business is poised to generate significant excess free cash flows that will support a robust and multifaceted capital allocation approach that will enhance returns for our shareholders, including the potential for opportunistic share buybacks, so stay tuned on this front. Next, looking at our recent transactions and project development. Our -- first of all, the upstream JVs, great effort on the organization here. As we announced last month, we were able to finalize an upstream joint venture with Crowheart in the Wamsutter basin, consolidating our legacy BP Southland and Crowheart upstream assets into 1 contiguous footprint of more than 1.2 million acres. So as we've mentioned before, this acreage was very divided and checker-boarded out here. And so being able to consolidate these assets in a way that it can be developed at a low cost is really critical to the value of the upstream business, important to us to the midstream business and taking advantage of the latent capacity we have out there today. And just recently, we inked a joint venture with GeoSouthern in the Haynesville that provides us with the following benefits
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
I was just wondering if you could start off a bit expanding on your thoughts on the current gas macro outlook, and whether that backdrop drives the higher end of guide expectation. How does this position your trajectory into 2022 at this point?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sure. Jeremy, as you know, the pricing run-up that we've had more recently and the continued demand growth is really starting to obviously put pressure and kind of wake up the forward markets a bit. And certainly, we are seeing responses from our producers looking to take advantage of that. The area that, I would say, that will see kind of the quickest response to is probably the Haynesville and tremendous amount of drilling activity that's gearing up in the Haynesville right now. But as well, you heard -- probably follow the comments from Cabot on their earnings call. Strong response there to price there as well. And of course, in the Southwest, Marcellus and in the Utica as well, we're really seeing pretty strong response across all those areas. So I think it's important to note that this is not just a production issue. Demand continues to grow. And so if you're looking at 2Q comparisons, we've seen against the '19 2Q, we saw demand grow by 9%. And against a 2Q of '20, we saw it grow about 5.6 -- sorry, yes, about 5.6%. So continued really strong growth going on, on the demand front. And we're obviously seeing prices respond to that. But I think, from our perspective, as we said all along, it really is demand that is going to drive our business and price will fluctuate as required to balance that, but it really is this demand -- continued steady demand growth that we're continuing to see. And obviously, as we saw last year, we don't expect the COVID or a resurgence of COVID really to have any impact on that. We're continuing to see a steady, healthy growth coming on the natural gas market. So as we look into '22, kind of hard to predict what gas demand will continue to do. But right now, certainly, the fundamentals are looking strong, and we are seeing a healthy producer response.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful. And I realize I'm probably getting a little bit ahead of myself here, but as it relates to buybacks, just wondering whether Williams has authorized a buyback plan. And if not, what would it take to authorize it? And as you think about -- if you were going to pursue buybacks, would something just generally opportunistic in nature make the most sense? Or something systematic where a percentage of cash flow could be applied to that in a given year? Just wondering, at this stage, what your thoughts are on buybacks in those respects?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Jeremy, thank you. I might as well get this out of the way. I knew that question was coming. So I'll square up on this. So first of all, we did have a really important discussion with the Board last week. And I think probably what was most remarkable about that was the degree of free cash flows that continue to exist on top of funding growth capital, on top of continued deleveraging that comes with that growth in EBITDA and being able to fund both rate base investments and new energy venture investments. Allowing for all of that, we still are showing pretty significant excess amount of free cash flow. And so I think that's probably the biggest takeaway. In terms of a program, we are in the process of detailing that out with our Board and putting some specific parameters around that. But I can tell you that the recommendation will be that it will be somewhat opportunistic, but it will have some framework to it in terms of what appropriate pricing levels and what those drivers will be. And I can tell you from my perspective, that will likely be a multiple of wherever our debt is trading. And if you think about that, our debt has continued to stay very steady while stock price has flipped around. And certainly, there will be those times where the market runs into its scares like we saw in March and April of last year. But in reality, the debt markets have been very steady and yet prices whipped around quite a bit. And so we think that will point to when the right opportunities are to acquire stock. So it will have parameters around it. It won't just be perfect -- it won't be random, and will have parameters around it in both in terms of size and the drivers for that. We likely won't announce those specific multiples on the debt multiples, but that is how we're thinking about it right now. And we will be announcing -- we do intend to, I should say, announce the program once we get the details of that squared away with our Board.
John Chandler:
And Jeremy, probably I'm self-evident here, but what Alan is really referring to is our dividend yield in relative comparison to where our debt trades at.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you, John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Maybe just to follow up on Jeremy's question there a little bit. Alan, in your prepared remarks, you had put a comment out there about how your projections to the Board showed steadily increasing EBITDA and steadily declining leverage. Should we think about this as there's a new leverage target that needs to be achieved? Or should we think about it as this excess cash flow is going to -- a component of it is going to go towards leverage reductions that will continue to decline? And then a portion will be available for the buybacks, whether it's 50-50 or to be opportunistic. Is that the way we should be thinking about this? I'm trying to square those comments together.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, I think the easiest way to think about it, Shneur, is that we, with our EBITDA continuing to grow and we hold our debt where it is, obviously, that metric continues to improve. And so really should think about it in that fashion. And so that's the primary driver of that improved credit metric. And I would just say that we will be able to balance that and make decisions on that as we see fit through the process. But there is such a significant amount of excess cash flow coming off that we really feel like we can hit all of those things we'd like to in terms of both continued dividend growth, continued credit metric improvement investment in our rate base and driving earnings assessment in our rate base and new energy ventures. We can do all of that, and we still have pretty significant firepower left for share buybacks when the opportunity is right. So really, the message we -- folks ought to be getting is that the cash flow is very significant, and it allows us to invest in all of those measures to continue to drive shareholder value.
Shneur Gershuni:
I appreciate the clarification there. Maybe to pivot a little bit. I was recently reading your sustainability report and you're talking about evaluating hydrogen and you sort of talked about that a little bit here. I'm just wondering where you see Williams' role in the hydrogen value chain. Because you talked about both blue and green in the comments there. Do you sort of see Williams as really just in the transportation aspect of it? And is that where you expect to invest? Will it be on the reformation side? Or do you actually see yourself participating capital-wise on electrolysis? I'm just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about it because as I sort of think about your position in the Haynesville, it kind of seems like a blue hydrogen strategy would be very interesting where you could participate in creation and in the transportation to industrial centers in the Gulf Coast. So just kind of curious of where you feel Williams will be, let's say, in 3 to 5 years from now on the hydrogen strategy.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, and I'll let Chad Zamarin follow up with some comments here, if he likes. But I would just start and say that what will be most obvious to you is that we're going to invest where we have competitive advantages around our assets. And so obviously, that points to transportation. But we do believe that in places like Wyoming where we've got such big land mass available and we have the transportation, and we have the processing capabilities and the system is already set up. We don't think that's a stretch for us to at least study. So a couple of things. One, it is going to -- we're only going to be doing it where we're making decent returns. And that means that we're going to have to be using competitive advantages to get returns that are over and above kind of what the market is allowing today on that kind of investment. And then secondly, you should think about it in terms of us always making sure that we are not leaving an opportunity where we have a competitive advantage. We're not going to let one pass us by, so we're not letting any -- we're not going to be taking any strikes at the plate and making sure that as we see opportunities, that we're attacking those very quickly. So Chad, I don't know if there's anything you might add to that.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I think you said it in your remarks, we operate an incredible energy transmission and storage infrastructure, and we're very focused on ensuring that, that infrastructure is part of the solution for the next generation of energy. And so that's our primary focus. I would say it's early in the days of hydrogen and we are working with the hydrogen production side of the equation to ensure that it can be economic and that it can drive volumes to our infrastructure. So I think we will participate in a small way initially to ensure that, that technology develops in a way that complements our infrastructure and then we'll evaluate whether or not we would invest on an ongoing basis. We're working on -- you mentioned the Haynesville. We permitted our Regional Energy Access project in a way that we've defined as compatible with hydrogen blending. And we're working on a hydrogen project, a pilot project on our Regional Energy Access project that will involve us participating in the production of hydrogen. It will be a very small scale, but it will demonstrate that we can leverage our infrastructure and we will earn an attractive return on that kind of investment. We're looking at that across our entire footprint. And as that scales up, I think it will be exactly what Alan said. It will be, "Do our strategic capabilities and assets provide us with an advantage? And should we leverage that advantage into investing in hydrogen production? Or just be prepared to support that development and drive those volumes to our assets and infrastructure?" But I can tell you, we're looking at it and read the table across our footprint to make sure that we're driving forward the right solutions to support our business.
Operator:
You have a question from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
So now that you've executed on the Wamsutter and Haynesville JVs, I was just wondering if you could help provide some clarity into the incremental midstream EBITDA you could pick up in '22 and '23 versus the upstream cash flow that's lost. Just -- I guess I'm just trying to figure out how accretive these transactions will be.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would start off with they are surprisingly powerful anytime you start adding volumes to late -- to mostly latent capacity in an area that it obviously comes on fast. So there's not any midstream permitting facilities are sitting there ready to go. So it is very powerful, and that's why we've been so focused on this. So I think we're all very excited about that. I'll let Chad speak to kind of the metrics on what we look like for growth in those areas on the...
Chad Zamarin:
Sure. And I'll give a little more color on the Haynesville structure that I think will help folks derive how much value that's going to contribute. But with GeoSouthern, we're thrilled to announce that partnership, they're a well-proven operator with a long track record of development. And with GeoSouthern, there is a drilling commitment of over 400,000 lateral feet that they will be pursuing. And you think about our acreage, it's highly contiguous and you see a map, there's a map in our appendix that shows how it's complementary with GeoSouthern's footprint. So there's a lot of long lateral inventory at very economic returns. And so we expect them -- they're incentivized. There are penalties if they don't meet those drilling commitments, but beyond that, we expect them to outperform the drilling commitment because it's highly economic opportunities. And as they perform, the initial economic splits have GeoSouthern at 30% of the economics, Williams at 70% of the upstream economics, but they will carry us, our capital for upstream development up to a cap of $50 million. And once that cap is achieved, they will revert to having 75% of the upstream economics and Williams will have 25% of the upstream economics. So they're highly incentivized to continue that development. To give you an idea of how powerful that is for our midstream systems, that development, we would expect to drive somewhere around 400,000 to 500,000 dekatherms a day of volume to our midstream assets. That's incremental volume from what we have today. And that ramp occurs relatively fast over the next 18 to 24 months. And all of that gas is committed to our midstream systems at a fee of $0.32 for gathering and treating. And as Alan mentioned, that is primarily available capacity that will be extremely high margin for us. And on top of that, we then have the ability to market that gas and drive that gas towards downstream opportunities, including integration with Transco. We've talked about marketing through our newly acquired Sequent platform. We're going to be working on a wellhead-to-water responsibly-sourced gas solution that we can offer to customers. And so just the base business alone, there's a lot of value to be driven to our midstream assets in that area. And if you do the math, it will rapidly outpace what we gave up from a fee reduction perspective with Chesapeake. And so that gives you kind of a picture of the Haynesville. In the Wamsutter, similar structure a little bit and it's a very big asset that we were working on. And again, thrilled with Crowheart as our partner. They have been in the basin for several years. If you look at the map in our appendix, you can really see the industrial logic, again, of partnering with Crowheart. And we put together over 1 million acres of now-contiguous acreage. And with Crowheart, there is a drilling commitment of over 500,000 lateral feet. And as we have announced, there's a 75-25% initial split with Crowheart at 75% and Williams at 25%. But as they achieve performance across that 500,000 lateral feet of development, they have the ability to earn up to a 50-50 split. And so they're highly incentivized to drive volume growth. And in the Wamsutter basin, again, we have latent capacity that's very high margin gathering and processing. It's dedicated to us. We gather and process for approximately $0.60 a dekatherm, so very high margin business in that basin. And we have today around 300 million cubic feet a day of volumes. That system has over 700 million cubic feet a day of capacity. So on top of the gas gathering and processing, we are now -- we've dedicated all of the NGLs at Williams at a fixed margin to Mont Belvieu pricing. And so we don't wear commodity price risk, and we cover significant revenues for Overland Pass Pipeline for Bluestem and our downstream partnership with Targa. So that hopefully gives a little bit of color on how those will drive value to our midstream and downstream assets.
John Chandler:
But maybe just to give you a couple of numbers here real quick because the Haynesville is different to the Wamsutter. The Wamsutter has very significant PDPs today, and where the Haynesville acreage doesn't. So we'll need to be drilling that up to produce the midstream value and the upstream value. And that will really start coming on in '22 and really into '23. That Wamsutter, on the other hand, with gas prices being quite a bit higher, is significantly paying for itself. And I'm not going to give you exact numbers here, but I can tell you what we paid for the South for the acreage from Southland and for BP will be completely paid for in less than 2 years and with where we see gas prices and just PDP production. And of course, that development will occur and you're going to see meaningful EBITDA uplifts coming in the future beyond 2022 as those new wells are drilled and that production comes on. So in the Wamsutter, you can get a sense of the return there just simply because of the PDP production and the gas prices. We'll return our capital very significantly in a very short time frame. In the Haynesville, as we look at total NPV value, yes, we did give up rates with Chesapeake in the Northern part of our system. They're bringing more rigs to work in that part of the system, but the value of that acreage as it's developed and we look at that -- I won't give you the exact number, but when we look at NPV, the value generation is at least $300 million, actually higher than that, over the life of this. That's the combination of the upstream value and the midstream value uplift from this, from the South Mansfield acreage.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I think that's well put, John. It's, I think, also a great example of creating a win-win for us and our customer. Chesapeake has been able to increase activity. And we, this time last year, Chesapeake was still not running rigs in the Haynesville. With the fee reduction that we offered, they now have 3 rigs running in their Springridge area. And so the fee reduction has incentivized significant activity that will show up on its own as incremental earnings over time. But also, as John mentioned, through the South Mansfield transaction, we see that as virtually tripling the value of that give back from an NPV perspective. So really, with Chesapeake made the pie much larger, and we're both able to benefit from that transaction.
Praneeth Satish:
Great. Super helpful. Just kind of switching gears for a second. I was wondering if you could comment broadly on the RNG business. I know in the past, you've been a little reluctant to invest in the actual RNG facilities. But now some of your peers are moving more aggressively into the space. So I'm just curious whether your views or strategy on RNG have changed at all.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, this is Chad again. I think we've said that we are willing to invest in RNG aggregation and processing if it makes sense from an economic perspective. And again, similar to what we talked about hydrogen, we have a strategic advantage. We have been looking at our footprint. We've been identifying sites that have potentially attractive economics from an RNG capture processing and delivery perspective. We think that, that opportunity set is attractive economically, but relatively small in scale. We've talked about a couple of hundred million dollars of potential investment. We have a few projects that we are evaluating where we could invest in the actual aggregation and processing of those volumes. The project that we've done so far have primarily been just interconnects into our existing infrastructure. But the technology required for those investments is relatively straightforward. I will say it's one of the areas that we look at that is heavily dependent upon LCFS credits and RINs. And that is an area where, again, we're going to be disciplined in our investments. We're not going to develop our entire business strategy around areas that require heavily subsidized economics. And so I think there's a place for it where we can drive significant value because of our strategic footprint. And I think we can invest at a level of modest and will -- and I would tell you because of those LCFS credits and dependency on those credits, we're identifying those opportunities in areas where we would have pretty rapid payback of those investments. So very attractive returns that would provide us with the confidence in those structures.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just chime in on and supplement the comment on the subsidies there, and certainly, the LCFS, the low carbon fuel standard, and the RINs are really the big driver in those projects. And if you start looking at the weight on the LCFS program to California, in particular, I think that's something we certainly are going to be paying attention to is the degree of sustainability of some of these credits and subsidies that are out there and making sure that we're not overinvesting against that risk. So it's not to say that we won't find ways to monetize that on the front end or let somebody else take that risk, but I do think that's a risk worth keeping your eye on given the -- if you add up all of the various projects where there's a CO2 carbon capture on ethanol load that that's putting on there and the loaded R&D starts to put them on there. It starts to be a pretty big number. So I think that's an important thing to keep your eye on as an investment.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho:
Maybe if I could just get a clarification on the leverage. What is the long-term ownership percentages for both Haynesville and the Wamsutter? What sort of timelines are we thinking about? And how should we think about how the upstream contributions are factored into the leverage calculation? Is 4.2x still the right target? And is there any change to how the rating agencies view that?
Alan Armstrong:
I don't think there's any change. I would just tell you, Christine, that the metrics are coming down again pretty naturally. And the cash flows start to roll from the upstream to the midstream pretty rapidly over the next 3 years. And so it does take a little bit longer in the Wamsutter. The development in Haynesville is pretty quick. So it rolls over to that pretty quickly. And certainly, the rating agencies are well aware of our strategies and design on how we get there. So John, I don't know if you got anything to add.
John Chandler:
No, I think that's right. Again, the Haynesville, both deals are designed -- both structures in the Haynesville and Wamsutter are designed for us to reduce our interest. And as Alan said, the Wamsutter sets us more sizable position, our interest would be bigger for longer there. And so whether that ultimately transfers to our partner or gets bought out in those, we don't have a long-term intent to be in the upstream business and intend just to do this to drive value in the midstream. So not sure exactly how Wamsutter ultimately plays out over long term and the Haynesville is pretty clear that as long as the drilling curves like we expect, as Alan said, in a 2- or 3-year time frame, it converts over to midstream value. In the meantime, our credit metrics are so strong right now and our coverage of our dividend and coverage of cash flows. We've talked to rating agencies about this, and I don't sense a concern at all about it. But again, as Alan pointed out in his opening comments, we do see growth coming in our business from EBITDA, which creates natural deleveraging and allows us to do a lot of incremental things in addition to what we're doing today and still see those metrics improve. And so the rating agency has seen numbers that show that as well.
Alan Armstrong:
It is a good question. I think to really understand how that transitions, if you look at the cash margin that we make on the midstream side versus the cash margin on the E&P side, you can see that there's so much value driven to the cash flows on the midstream side. But that's really what makes this work and kind of transition us -- transitions us out of the upstream piece of it and into the midstream cash flows pretty quick. So as we've said all along, our goal is to get those developed rapidly and get the cash flows moving on that. In the Haynesville, that's a shorter-term issue and on Wamsutter, that's a longer-term issue just because it's such an enormous deal that will -- is going to be providing -- has such a tremendous amount of inventory in that area, so -- but it really is the cash margin of the midstream business that is really powerful for us. Our cost side of that doesn't move very much at all on the midstream side, but cash flows go up pretty dramatically.
Christine Cho:
Okay. Got it. And then if I could just move over to the Northeast. Your processing volumes jumped quite a bit there quarter-over-quarter. Do you guys benefit from some short-term volumes with a competitor outage? Or is that a new run rate we should go off of?
Micheal Dunn:
No, Christine. This is Micheal. That -- those outages that occurred, they were very short lived. And ironically, we were -- both the big operators up there were having some operator challenges at the same time that were quickly resolved. So we didn't really benefit nor did our competitors at that same time. But I would say if it is a new run rate for us just because our Oak Grove TXP III project came online in the first quarter. And obviously, we have filled that up in the second quarter and are running at full tilt there on our OVM processing for the most part. And so we are looking at opportunities to interconnect with our Blue Racer facilities and take advantage of some potential lease capacity that they may have. But there's an opportunity to round robin a lot of gas there to our own facilities, our UEO that we acquired a couple of years ago as well as the Blue Racer facility now that we are going to take full advantage of. But I would say we're seeing very active producer activity up there from EQT and Southwestern as well as Encino, who's a private operator, and they are chasing those liquid-rich well pad drill outs right now, and that's why we're seeing a lot of activity there and really pleased that our processing capacity is not full.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with Truist Securities.
Tristan Richardson:
I really appreciate all the comments around your level of capital allocation. But just thinking about the cash flow build next year against some of the project opportunities you've talked about, particularly rate-based investment, the new energy projects awaiting approval, Gulf of Mexico FIDs. Should we think CapEx in 2022 could look similar to this year as some of these opportunities kick off and dollars start to be put to work?
Alan Armstrong:
Simple answer is yes. One of the things that's driving capital expense this year has been some of the upstream acquisitions as well as the Sequent acquisition. And so we've had some acquisitions that have -- are still included in that range that we've put out, so that's driving this. Next year, Leidy South will be completed. In the fourth quarter of this year, most of the capital spending obviously will occur prior to that. And then as we get into next year, hopefully, we'll start spending towards the end of the year on Regional Energy Access. If we're fortunate on the permitting process, most of that spending will be in '23. But in addition to that, as we get into '23, the spending for Whale will hit as well. So it's looking pretty levelized, frankly, with this year being driven a little bit higher than we would have expected with some of the acquisitions that we've done. But next year, continued expansion in a lot of these projects that we've mentioned. So it's -- looks like a pretty relatively steady run at kind of the current rate and capital spending.
John Chandler:
I'd just say that the math is obviously pretty straightforward. If you look at our -- if you just use our guidance midpoint as a starting point, other than capital, we'll be at the higher end of the range on capital. We're generating -- we're spending, let's say, $1.2 billion at the high end on expansion capital, $500 million on maintenance this year, so that's $1.7 million still deleveraging. Next year, we see EBITDA growth. We're not giving explicit guidance on that today. But if you think about it, if we just put a 4x multiple against any EBITDA growth, that still allow us to be leveraging from a 4.13 level today. And so any kind of reasonable amount of EBITDA growth adds substantially on top of that $1.7 billion that we're spending this year. So that's what -- you hear this kind of confidence on our part that we've got -- we see EBITDA growth coming and with that comes an obviously an expansion of that investable capital and still allowing for a deleverage from a ratio standpoint.
Tristan Richardson:
I appreciate it, John. That's helpful. And then I guess just a quick follow-up on really on the acquisition opportunity side. You guys have talked about capital allocation across CapEx and the balance sheet and even the potential for repurchase. Curious on asset packages out there. We've seen some activity in transmission and storage over the past year. Are there small bolt-on opportunities out there, either in the Northeast or in the West? Are there things that are attractive or even transactable when you look out across the landscape?
Alan Armstrong:
I would say we certainly keep our eyes on that. And so far, I think folks that are more dependent on those acquisitions for growth are making those acquisitions. And so from our vantage point, we've got better investment opportunities right now than that. And hopefully, that will continue for a long period of time. It's certainly looking that way right now. But I think that's kind of what's driving that market right now is whether people have growth or not. And for us, we have very substantial growth within our investments that are better return opportunities than what we've seen in the broader M&A market -- at option M&A market produced right now. So we'll certainly keep our eyes open, and -- but it's going to be deals that where we have a tremendous amount of synergies that can make those investment opportunities compete with our other investment opportunities, including share buybacks as well. So all of those go into that calculus. But right as we've demonstrated, we're going to be very patient. And we're going to do deals that are -- where we're competitively advantaged to get a much higher return than the broad market would be able to realize.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse.
Spiro Dounis:
Alan, first one for you. In the past, you've expressed interest and a willingness to work with the current administration on energy transition and emissions goals. Curious what receptivity you've had early on in demonstrating natural gas' role in the transition. And what you see is maybe still some of the hurdles or areas where there's a gap of opinion on how you approach reducing emissions over the long term.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think it's an interesting time right now because there is this big drive to -- everybody is very focused on emissions reduction. There's starting to be a sobering, if you will, and a realization of what that means from a cost standpoint to consumers. And as a result of that, people are kind of pivoting back to, okay, well, what is sensible and what can we do that makes sense. And enter the likes of Senator Manchin with a great focus on natural gas for the benefit of the state of West Virginia and for our country and jobs, I would say, and a strong recognition on his part that we have to do this in a globally sustainable manner. And it has to be economic. Otherwise, we're just shipping jobs and the industry off to other countries. And so I would just say there's kind of a reconciling going on, if you will, between, and no pun intended there, by the way, between the intense focus on carbon reductions and tackling that issue on the one hand and on the other issue doing it in a way that it actually is sustainable and we, as the U.S., can stay in control of our own destiny from an economic perspective. And so I think natural gas is extremely well positioned as those 2 things start to grind against each other and start to look for sensible intelligent solutions that we can really deliver on today. And so I would say I have seen some recognition start to go on as people start to actually think about what the cost of some of these solutions means both in terms of direct cost of consumer and in terms of reliability. And so the issues are starting to sober up a little bit as people really start to describe solutions. And so I think where -- natural gas is even better positioned right now than I kind of thought it would be because I am noticing that people are starting to pay attention to the impact on consumers.
Spiro Dounis:
Understood. Helpful. Second question is just a follow-up on Sequent. I know you've talked about EBITDA generation in sort of the $20 million to $30 million range annually. But I don't imagine that contemplates the uplift Sequent could provide to the entire asset network as a whole. So curious, am I right in that assumption? And is there any way you can sort of help us quantify the potential benefit overall as Sequent starts to ramp up and integrate into the system?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to be able to provide you any specific numbers on that. But you are correct. That is really the purpose of that acquisition, was to drive further value and benefit. And I would tell you, so far, we are even more excited than when we were looking at the acquisition originally in terms of synergies between what our Williams existing customers want and we can provide services for, and what Sequent has and that team has to offer. So tremendous synergies, really excited to see the team starting to work together, and they're identifying a lot of opportunities here very rapidly. So the honeymoon continues, I guess, I would say, and we continue to be very excited about what we're seeing from the Sequent team and their ability to drive value across our asset base.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Two-parter here. One, can you remind us what's the capital investment required for the deepwater projects for the 2 that you're kind of disclosing? What should come online by 2024? That's the first question. Second question is, what's the next step in terms of approval process for Regional Energy Access?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I'll take the first part of that on the capital. We haven't disclosed specifics on that capital, but I would just tell you, it's just south of $0.5 billion. And so we haven't laid out anything in terms of detail on that. But we're really, really excited about the way that project's come together. And the capital team and the projects team has continued to find ways to take cost out of that project as well. And that -- and by the way, that includes an expansion for our gas system and the connection of that and there's some significant expansion for the oil side system of that and which will pay benefit for the future and as well an expansion of our [indiscernible] facility to be able to handle all of this rich gas. So lots of lines of profits between the gas transportation, the oil transportation and the processing of that gas. And so we're really excited about the returns and the way that area is paying off and I would also add, there's several other large prospects out there that are looking very fruitful as well. And so the story could be even better out there in terms of growth over time. So that has turned in to be a great project. And our deepwater construction team has really done a nice job. We're well into that project at this point. As you know, we had a reimbursable agreement with Shell. So we're well into the details of engineering. And in fact, have already bought and had all delivered -- all of the deepwater pipe for that project is now -- was built in the U.K., but it's now here in the U.S. So great efforts by the team. Mike, do you want to take the Regional Energy Access?
Micheal Dunn:
Sure, Alan. Just as a reminder, on Regional Energy Access, we made that FERC filing back in March, where the project initially expected an environmental assessment to be completed for the project, but with the changing atmosphere at FERC, they were basically pushing all of the new projects that come in the door and even some that were already there prior to Chairman Glick becoming the Chairman. To go to an environmentally-backed statement will take a little bit longer for us. It shouldn't have an appreciable impact on the overall project schedule. We would still expect to have a FERC certificate next year in 2022 and then could begin construction later that year. We still plan for a Q4 2023 in-service date for the project as we stand today.
Alan Armstrong:
And Micheal, I would just add on the deepwater on the well project. That pipe and a lot of the engineering that's gone into that and a lot of the specialty fabrication is already in this year's capital budget. So a lot of the materials and pipe has already been paid for or is included in this year's budget. So they'll pile it on to the next couple of years' debt.
Operator:
At this time, there are no additional questions. I'll turn the call back over to Alan Armstrong from Williams.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much. Continued great success here in '21. Teams continue to hit on all cylinders. And importantly, even though we've got great growth here in '21, what we're really excited about is how we're positioned now for the future with a number of very important drivers for growth here in the future that will show up in '22 and beyond. So really setting a nice platform for growth for our business for years to come. So we thank you for your attention today and the great questions, and we'll speak to you again soon.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to The Williams First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thank you, Amicus and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In the presentation materials, you will find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, Danilo and thank you all for joining us today. Our natural gas focused strategy continues to deliver solid financial results and this past quarter was no different. Our base business performance was remarkably strong in the first quarter and the severe winter weather in February boosted marketing margins, but even without these weather benefit or those benefits, as John will detail later, our adjusted EBITDA was up, reflecting strength in our base business. Once again, well-positioned assets and reliable operations came through as we delivered another quarter of growth in almost all of our key operating metrics despite severe weather. In fact, average daily firm contracts of transmission capacity, average daily transported volumes, average daily gathering volumes and average daily plant inlet volumes all increased on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Extreme weather experienced in the first quarter really underscores the importance of having a resilient and reliable energy network. Williams also stood out on this front as no firm service was cut on any of our gas transmission systems during Uri. And in fact, our Northwest pipeline hit another record peak day for throughput during the storm. It demonstrates that affordable and dependable natural gas will be a very critical part of the energy mix as we work to support growing economies and meet the key challenges we face around climate change both in the U.S. and abroad. We truly believe Williams’ existing infrastructure is key to tomorrow’s clean energy economy. I will talk more about how we are planning for the future when we get to the key focus areas. But in the meantime, John is going to go through our financial results. John?
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. At a very high level summary, the quarter benefited from the impact of winter storm Uri. And to be clear, we have collected all receivables relative to that event. But even beyond the winter storm impact, we saw nice increases in profitability from our Northeast gathering systems, an uplift in revenues on our Transco pipeline from new projects that have been put into service over the last year, and higher profits from our NGL marketing activity in our West segment. These positives were offset somewhat by higher bonus expense accruals, reflecting the solid year that is unfolding and lower Gulf of Mexico revenues due to some downtime issues during the first quarter of this year. And you can see the strong performance in our statistics on this page. In fact, we saw improvements in all of our key financial metrics. First, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up $153 million or 12%. But even after excluding the impact of winter storm Uri, our adjusted EBITDA was up 6%. We will discuss EBITDA variances in more depth in a moment. Adjusted EPS for the quarter increased 35%, simply reflecting the after-tax impact of the higher EBITDA. AFFO grew for the quarter similarly to our growth in EBITDA. And again, AFFO is essentially cash from operations, including JV cash flows, but excluding working capital fluctuations. If you put AFFO up against our capital investments for the quarter of $277 million, of which we consider roughly $47 million of that to be maintenance capital and you put it up against our dividend of $498 million, you can see that we generated over $250 million in excess cash for the quarter. Also, you see our dividend coverage on this page based on AFFO divided by dividends sets at a very strong 2.07x. This strong cash generation and strong EBITDA for the quarter, along with continued capital discipline, has helped move us towards our leverage metric goal of 4.20x. You will see later in our guidance update in this deck, we have moved our guidance now for the year from around 4.25x at the end of the year now to around 4.20x at the end of the year. I am really proud of our success on this front. So, now let’s go to the next slide. Let’s dig in a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, Williams performed very well this quarter. But before we dive into each segment, we believe it’s important to isolate a few items that are not part of our core business. The first item is the net impact of winter storm Uri on our operations in the West. That impact produced a $55 million net benefit and included the positive impact on our marketing operations offset somewhat by reduced revenues at our Piceance processing facility, whose rates are impacted by net liquid margins. We also had slightly lower volumes in the Mid-Continent at Haynesville. And collectively, we estimate winter storm Uri impacted our West volumes by about 70 MCF a day during the quarter. In addition, we also realized a $22 million storm Uri uplift in profits from the Wamsutter upstream assets that we acquired from BP in February and that is on top of the $8 million from normal operations from these upstream assets. So, the total winter storm impact was about – was a $77 million benefit. Again, with that benefit, EBITDA was up 12%. And even without the impact of winter storm Uri, EBITDA was up 6%. So, digging into our core operations, our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets produced results that are about $9 million less than the same period last year. However, new transmission pipeline projects added $29 million in incremental revenues for the quarter, including the Hillabee Phase 2 project that came into service in the second quarter of last year, the Southeastern Trails project that went into service during the fourth quarter of last year, and a portion of the Leidy South project that went into service in the fourth quarter of last year. You can see this evidenced in the growth in our firm reserve capacity, which is up 5% from the first quarter of 2020. These revenue increases were almost entirely offset by lower Gulf of Mexico revenues due to some production and downtime issues, lower revenues from lower rates in just a few Transco markets that went into effect upon closing the rate case last year and 1 less billing day this year than last year given last year was a Leap Year, which, believe it or not, has a $6 million impact on our transmission revenues. So, the reduced EBITDA results for this segment really have nothing to do with revenues and are largely due to higher operating expenses, which, interestingly enough are being impacted by higher bonus accruals and equity compensation accruals given that we are off to such a strong start to the year. We traditionally do not increase those accruals until later in the year. In addition, we did see slightly higher compression expenses for this segment. Now, moving to the Northeast, the G&P segment continues to come on strong, contributing $32 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 920 MCF a day or about 11% this quarter versus the first quarter of last year, while processing volumes grew 15%. The volume growth was predominantly at our JVs in the Bradford Supply Hub, where we benefited from a gathering system expansion on that system in late 2019 and at our Marcellus South Supply Basin, where we benefited from more productive wells at larger pads. As a result, our EBITDA from equity method investments improved by little over $33 million, which also includes the benefit of additional profits from Blue Racer due to our increased ownership, which we acquired in mid-November last year. Now, moving to the West G&P segment, it was up $44 million compared to the prior year. And remember, again that this excludes the $55 million net benefit from winter storm Uri. So, of this $44 million improvement, commodity margins from our marketing activities contributed a big part of that improvement and they were up $52 million versus the first quarter of 2020. And again, this excludes the $74 million benefit from winter storm Uri related just only to commodities. These increased commodity margins were the result of a few things, all driven by higher NGL prices during the quarter. The first and most significant is related to inventory in transit. Last year, we saw prices decline and had a small loss, while this year we saw prices increasing during the quarter and realized a gain on that inventory. The second relates to transfers of propane and other NGLs to higher netback markets, where we saw some real market differentials during the quarter and we are able to take advantage of that. For example, the differentials between Conway and Mont Belvieu. Offsetting the higher commodity margins were lower profits from our JVs. We did see a $5 million JV benefit from winter storm Uri on our [indiscernible] JV. So if you exclude that, our JVs were down about $8 million and that can be mostly attributed to OPPO, where One Oak has pulled much of their volume and moved it to their solely owned system. Those items, namely higher commodity margins, offset by lower JV profits, again mostly explain the variance in the West. Otherwise, lower revenues were offset by lower expenses. Revenues were down $14 million when you exclude a negative $23 million impact tied to winter storm Uri on West revenues and again, mostly that was in the Piceance related to net liquid margins. Volumes in the West were down 250 MCF a day or if you exclude winter storm Uri, about – they were down about 180 MCF a day, with most of that reduction in the Haynesville and the Eagle Ford, which of course I will remind you in the Eagle Ford, we are protected by MVC, so that doesn’t have a revenue impact. So really, the biggest impact on revenues was the rate reduction in the Haynesville and a slight volume reduction at Haynesville. And I will remind you that we traded that rate reduction in the Haynesville in part for receiving the South Mansfield acreage from Chesapeake earlier this year. Now again, offsetting the lower revenues were lower cost, including lower compression cost and no bad debt expense, where during the first quarter of 2020, we did reserve for the Wamsutter MVC that are now realizing those MVCs as part of the settlement with south [ph]. I will now turn the call back over to Alan to discuss several important investor focus areas and updates to our 2021 guidance. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks John. And here, moving on to the key investor focus areas on Slide 3, we are increasing the midpoint of our ‘21 EBITDA guidance range to $5.3 billion, which is up $100 million. The increase in our guidance goes beyond the gains realized during the winter storm as it also reflects confidence in the strength of our base business. Achieving this new midpoint would produce a 3-year CAGR of about 4.5%, even while we have continued to improve our balance sheet and produced free cash flow after CapEx and dividends. Regarding the balance sheet, our de-leveraging goal is now on an accelerated path as we have hit the target of 4.2 this quarter, which obviously is earlier than we had forecasted earlier and we are currently on positive watch at Moody’s and hope to see a credit upgrade soon. Given the accelerated achievement of key milestones on our balance sheet, we will begin to evaluate various capital allocation alternatives. As you know, debt reduction has been our top capital priority and now we will begin to evaluate the best use of free cash flow in ‘22 and beyond. So, next on the list here is a few thoughts about the Sequent acquisition. As we announced last night, we recently reached an agreement to purchase Sequent Energy Management and Sequent Energy Canada from Southern Company Gas for a purchase price of $50 million, plus working capital at close. And for several years, we have been evaluating the best way to enhance our marketing capabilities at Williams in a way that it could be well integrated, culturally aligned and focused on driving fee-based revenues across our network for several years. So, this is something we have had in our strategic capabilities and something we needed to build for several years. And so we are really excited to be taking this step to fulfill what’s been a strategic capability gap. The addition of Sequent, including its talented workforce and industry leading platform, complements the current geographic footprint of our core pipeline transportation and storage business. For perspective, we handled 30% of the nation’s natural gas, which is approximately 30 BCF per day. This acquisition increases our natural gas transport and storage optimization capabilities up to 8 BCF per day from 1 BCF per day that we were doing previously here within Williams, so certainly bringing it more in line for a natural gas focused business as large as Williams. The scale of the combined company will not only allow for optimization of our existing assets, but it will also facilitate expansions into new markets with opportunities to reach incremental gas-fired power generation, liquefied natural gas exports and future RNG opportunities. In discussion with both our existing and potential LNG focused customers, we are hearing a clear need to have wellhead to water natural gas supplies that can demonstrate and document responsibly produced low carbon supplies. We see this acquisition as a way to more effectively aggregate, transport and market these in-demand supplies. So, we are really excited to welcome the Sequent team to Williams later this summer. And finally, we don’t expect the acquisition to have any dramatic impact on our current mix of business nor a material impact for our ‘21 EBITDA or CapEx guidance. So, now moving on to project execution here on Slide 3 still, we continued our pace of strong project execution in the first quarter, placing our Southeastern Trail project into full service in early January and making great progress now on the Transco Leidy South project to bring additional gas from Appalachian area, particularly Northeast PA to growing demand centers along the Atlantic seaboard by next winter. We filed our FERC application for the Regional Energy Access project, a low environmental impact project being designed in a manner that is acceptable to future renewable energy sources like clean hydrogen and blend – like clean hydrogen blending and RNG. So in today’s environment, as we are all learning more and more existing infrastructure is more important and more valuable than ever and the Brownfield nature of regional energy access and Leidy South and Southeastern Trails are all great examples to that. With the largest and most flexible gas transmission system in the nation, Williams can serve new demand primarily through Brownfield expansions. This means maximizing the use of established transmission corridors and facilities and resulting in reduced community and environmental impact, while also enabling economic growth and the use of lower carbon fuels in those markets. Next, on to the Gulf of Mexico opportunities here, we remain on track to executing on the 4 key Gulf of Mexico projects, which is Quail, Ballymore, Taggart and Anchor. These projects are progressing very well and we look forward to these projects coming online here now over the next few years. We also have a number of other smaller projects, but those are the ones that we continue to focus your attention on. So, next on the Northeast G&P project execution, certainly, some of the producers in the Northeast remain in production maintenance mode, but our project execution team is busy trying to keep up with the increased demand for processing and fractionation services for the growing rich gas volumes in the Southwest Marcellus area. And as we have stated before, the rich gas volumes provide us with a much higher service fee and margin capture. So, we are thrilled to see continued expansion in that area. And finally, on sustainability here, we continue to focus on sustainable operations. And I will remind you that last year, Williams became the first North American midstream company to issue a climate commitment, focusing on ready now solutions to address climate change. And by setting a near-term goal of a 56% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 as a part of our climate commitment, we are well in line with the Biden administration’s recently announced nationally determined contribution target of a 50% to 52% reduction by 2030. So, we are really excited that we are actually ahead of that here in what’s been said as an aggressive goal for the country. We will continue to leverage our natural gas focused strategy and today’s technology to focus on immediate opportunity to reduce emissions. At the same time, natural gas and our infrastructure are enabling the next generation of clean energy technology. There really is not another energy infrastructure system that integrates a reliable delivery network with a massive storage solution on the scale that the natural gas infrastructure across our nation does. We believe our infrastructure can be a critical part of both near and long-term solutions. And on our near-term efforts, we are focused on renewable natural gas, solar energy. And our footprint is ideal for bringing in renewable natural gas to markets and solar projects in a supply mix. On the solar front, we have currently identified 3 additional projects and now have a total of 16 solar project opportunities that should start operating beginning in 2023. On the emerging fuels front, such as green hydrogen and renewable natural gas, we certainly expect that to play an increasing role in the clean energy future and both as a storage vehicle for excess renewable energy in the form of green hydrogen and as a net zero emitting form of natural gas in the renewable natural gas. So, we continue to make sure that we are on the front edges of those opportunities. We are looking forward and anticipating future innovations and technologies that we can use on our key energy network to deliver on this next phase of the energy transition. In fact, in a partnership with the University of Wyoming, we are currently pursuing a grant from the state of Wyoming to fund a feasibility study to pursue a pilot program that would evaluate the creation of a green hydrogen hub near our operations in Wyoming. The study will be presented to the Wyoming Energy Authority and it could be an initial step for Williams to better understand the working of the hydrogen economy. I certainly want to keep that in context for you. That simply is us filing for a study there to determine if we want to pursue a pilot there. So that is perhaps something I don’t want to see people getting out over our skis on here. This is a step, and we certainly are going to make sure that we stay in front of these kind of opportunities, but we are a long way from making any kind of big investment decisions on that. We also recently joined the Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition that was launched for advanced clean hydrogen as a key pathway to achieving global de-carbonization and U.S. energy competitiveness. And finally, we are proud to be a founding sponsor of Houston’s Greentown Labs, a green technology incubator to support climate tech start-ups. So in closing, I will reiterate that our intense focus on our natural gas based strategy has built a business that is steady and predictable with continued moderate growth, improving returns and an increasing amount of free cash flows. Our best-in-class long-haul pipes, Transco, Northwest pipeline and Gulfstream, are in the right place and right markets. And by design, our formable gathering assets are in the low cost basins that will be called on to meet gas demand as it continues to grow. As evidence, on a year-over-year basis, the Lower 48 natural gas production here, of course, in the United States has declined by 5% here in the first quarter. At the same time, Williams Natural Gas gathering volumes were up by 5%, indicating that our strategy of focusing on key low-cost natural gas basins is working. These gathering assets are irreplaceable and critical infrastructure within the natural gas value chain, and the importance of this infrastructure was proven in our recent ability to navigate two substantial customer bankruptcies in a way that actually improve the value proposition in the Wamsutter and the Haynesville basin. This is a crystal clear example that even in the most dire circumstances, our long-term approach and careful contracting allows us to turn negative such as producer bankruptcies into net positives for Williams. We remain bullish on natural gas because we have recognized the critical role it plays and will continue to play in both our countries and the world’s pursuit of a clean energy future. Natural gas is an important component of today’s fuel mix and should be prioritized as one of the most important tools to aggressively displace more carbon-intensive fuels around the world. Our networks are critical to serving both domestic and global energy demand in a lower carbon and economically viable manner. So with that, we thank you very much for joining us today, and I will open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. Good morning. I guess just first question on regional energy access. You mentioned that it’s being designed to accept hydrogen or RNG blending. Just curious, what does that mean exactly? Are you taking any – are you doing any different steps on this project? Can it take more hydrogen and other pipes? Just curious if you could elaborate on those comments?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Mike, can you take that one, please?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. Good morning. We are looking at this asset and the footprint that it encompasses on our exiting right away and talking to our customers about opportunities that they have to either bring renewable natural gas into that pipeline system or utilization of solar facilities that they are contemplating and expect can possibly produce hydrogen and close proximity to the pipeline. And so that’s really the comment that you are seeing there. It’s no exotic metals or anything of that nature in the pipeline system. It will be typical of any existing pipeline system that’s in the country to be able to accommodate a hydrogen blend, but it’s accommodating the ability of our customers that are participating in that project to bring forward in partnership with us potentially hydrogen sources into that pipeline system.
Praneeth Satish:
Great. And then just turning to the Northeast, you have got your new Oak Grove processing plant expansion up and running. How long do you think it will take to still that expansion up? And maybe tied to that, where do you stand in terms of NGL volumes now versus frac capacity in the Northeast? Do you see the need to add any frac capacity? Maybe just one more to tie on to that, is there any opportunity to kind of integrate the Blue Racer and your other systems in the Northeast to give yourselves some synergies there?
Michael Dunn:
Yes. This is Michael. I will take that one again. So basically, the processing capacity is virtually full today. The production that came on the line behind that processing facility was very robust. The pads were developed by our customers there, primarily EQT and Southwestern, and very prolific pad developments they have there, exceeding their expectations. And so we did an offload agreement with our customers there to make sure that we didn’t impact any of their volumes in the first quarter, while we were finishing our TXP3 and our growth. That’s now online, and like I said earlier, virtually full. So, we are seeing full processing there for the most part. And our fractionation facility at Harrison is also approaching the limits of capacity. And I suspect through the summer months, we will be at capacity on those facilities. And so we are contemplating opportunities with our Blue Racer ownership there and where we can create crossover pipeline systems to be able to transport some of those volumes over to them when they potentially have spare capacity. And that system can be utilized bi-directionally in the future to where either one of us potentially have a capacity situation and we can offload to the other. And so that’s a longer term prospect project. But it’s something we feel like we could have online potentially this year, and it’s a very low cost project in comparison to building it either a new fractionation or processing facility.
Praneeth Satish:
Great. Thank you.
Michael Dunn:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho:
I would like to start off with the guidance. If we adjust first quarter to take out the storm impact, it would imply some degradation in the future quarters to get to the midpoint of guidance. So, just wanted to see if there is anything that we should be thinking about later in the year that would bring numbers down from here or is the guidance just somewhat conservative?
John Chandler:
Yes, this is John Chandler. I will take that. First of all, I would say there are a couple of other items in the first quarter beyond Winter Storm Uri I think you should think about. So, let’s start with the 1 4, 1 5, which is what we made. Winter storm had a $77 million impact. We did make, I would call it, outsized NGL margins during the first quarter relative to some of this inventory valuation. And just to put a number on that, I think we made probably $30 million more than we would normally make in a quarter. So if you remember in my commentary, I said we made $52 million more in NGL marketing activity outside of Winter Storm Uri. We usually make $20 million to $30 million a quarter. And so if you back $77 million out, you back $30 million out for some outside NGL margins and then also, we did book an $11 million MVC accrual relative to Wamsutter. That once we close in the southern properties, we will be our own customer and we will be charging ourselves an MVC, and you take that out as well. If you take those 3 numbers out, we are under $1.3 billion for the quarter. And if you normal – if you take that times 4, add those items back, you will get really close to our kind of 5.3 midpoint. Now of course, you might say, the upstream will come in a little bit stronger, too. We made out – without Winter Storm Uri, we made $8 million on the upstream; times 4, that’s $32 million, and we have guided to around 1% of our EBITDA for the year. So there is certainly some uplift on the upstream, too. So, I would say there is probably a little bit of conservatism in our number. I am not going to try to say there isn’t to that. But I think we obviously want to be sensitive to – if we have a tough hurricane season or other things. But I think you have got to take those 3 things out, you are going to get really close to guidance. Our forecast remains very strong, and our business performance remains really strong for the remainder of the year.
Christine Cho:
Okay. Got it. That’s helpful. And then I wanted to kind of touch on the purchase of Sequent. Your commentary to source responsible gas is notable. So, wondering if you could talk about what this exactly entails, what you are thinking here. And then natural gas marketing was a business that was much bigger pre shale, and it’s gotten much smaller over the last decade. But with utility – I know that you guys mentioned LNG customers. But with the utilities coming out with net zero requirements as well and maybe more volatility to materialize in natural gas flows on a daily basis rather than what has historically been a seasonal basis, could you talk about what this might mean for pipeline be contracting and how Sequent may or may not play a role?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Christine, great question and very thoughtful. I would just say, first of all, we – as I mentioned earlier, we have been, for the last couple of years, really and thinking, boy, this is a big business. We touched a lot of gas, have a lot of customers that could use services like gas marketing, but we have been very limited in our approach to that. And so the Sequent opportunity basically gave us an opportunity to buy a platform and a set of contracts and asset management contracts and a great team that really knows this business and has controlled risk extremely well. And so really allowed us to fulfill a strategic gap. However – so I would just say that was out there as the need before the thought of low-carbon fuels and the volatility and the value of volatility that just got exposed in this last quarter even came along. But I will tell you that we entered this with even greater confidence in both the need and the value associated with because we do believe that the benefit of capacity management and risk management as it relate – for utilities as it relates to what happened during a Winter Storm Uri certainly has – make sure the space is wide weight relative to the risk around this issue. And we think this – the team at Sequent has done a great job of managing that risk, by the way, through this. And so we think there is value in managing in a new value associated with managing that kind of risk. But we also just think just generally, we have a lot of customers that could really use the service. And as you say, it’s really kind of faded away as the capability in a lot of companies, but we think it’s really going to be an important tool for us and being able to bring together low carbon supplies all the way from the wellhead and being able to document that and put that value chain together all the way to the water and to our utilities is clearly on the list right now as the new opportunity for us to market to. And we certainly have the assets, but we really don’t have all of those contacts with people. We talk to customers about long-term capacity on a regular basis. We are not out readily talking to them about how we manage the volatility in their business. And so this really gives us a great opportunity to do that and look forward. So thanks for the question, and I would just say e are – it’s become more and more evident to us that this is something we needed to add to our capabilities at some of the changes that you pointed out has occurred.
Michael Dunn:
Alan, if I could add to that as well. The upstream properties that we now own were potentially loan once were bankruptcy court approved to Southland transaction in the Wamsutter. The BP acreage in the Wamsutter and the Haynesville acreage now gives us the ability to market that natural gas that’s coming from those properties. And so we are going to by the way to work with our new Sequent ownership, ultimately, when that closes, to find a way to take those supplies, brand them as low carbon or net zero and then market those to utilities and LNG facilities that Alan mentioned.
Christine Cho:
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Christine
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to see, I might have missed it here. But as far as the E&P acreage sale process is concerned, would you be able to update us there, I guess, as far as timing? Is it still kind of July or has anything kind of changed in your thought process there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Jeremy, thank you for the question. Yes, we are in the process of working through – and I would say we are well into negotiations with two different parties, one in the Wamsutter, one in the Haynesville. And they are both local producers with adjacent acreage and very skilled operators in the area. And so we are moving along on that. And probably the form of those transactions will be a situation where we retain an interest, and part of that is for credit protection, as you can imagine, make sure that we haven’t handed the keys over to that until the cash has been invested to increase the drilling acreage. So you should think about that as over time, those cash flows being reinvested in the drilling and building up of the business and then a dilution of our interest over time as that converts from upstream cash flows into midstream – long life midstream cash flows. So, that’s exactly what we are looking to accomplish. And I will tell you our team and Chad Zamarin, who has been leading that for us, has just done a fantastic job of really coming up with win-win solutions with parties. And we are really excited about the way that’s going to turn out for much – I would tell you, much bigger value to us than even at very modest conditions, much bigger value coming to us than we had ever kind of expected when we were preparing in the bankruptcy processes for that. So Chad, I don’t know if you have anything to add on that.
Chad Zamarin:
Just on timing, I would expect that we finalized those transactions over the next 30 days to 60 days. We are pretty far along with – in both scenarios. And I think just to put an emphasis on what Alan said, I mean, those will be structures that bring in a strong, well capitalized operator, and the ownership structure that they will be acquiring will be structured in a way that will require development of the asset and drive volumes to our midstream and downstream efforts. And as Michael said, we will, as part of both of those transactions, have a marketing capability and the ability to aggregate supply for the benefit of our gathering systems, our downstream pipeline systems, and now with Sequent, our marketing and optimization takeaway. So we think a really great outcome for us and our partners, but I would expect to see something in both the Wamsutter and Haynesville over the next 30 days to 60 days.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Thanks for that. And then on the topic of energy transition, I was just wondering if carbon capture is on your radar. If you think that the current 45Q is sufficient to make projects economic, specifically such as on processing plants given the purity of the – to stream there or anywhere else, do you see that as a possibility for Williams here or do you see the potential for more, I guess, changes of support coming out of D.C. that could enhance economics and make these projects more viable for Williams?
Alan Armstrong:
Chad, do you want to take that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. I would tell you that we are looking at every opportunity to leverage our capabilities and infrastructure, and carbon capture is one of those. We do have assets in both pipelines and storage facilities in areas where there may be the opportunity to aggregate significant carbon emissions and provide capture and storage. It’s early days. Much like with hydrogen, I would say we are trying to set the table for us to be able to participate in those opportunities as they mature. I wouldn’t expect to see something material with on hydrogen in Wyoming. I wouldn’t expect to see something material from an investment perspective in the near-term. But I would tell you that if it’s a viable opportunity, which we think is very well may be, we are looking at some actual projects today, but they are long-term in nature. And we require, I would say, a year plus of just evaluation before we even think about what an investment might look like. But we have multiple different opportunities that we are looking at across the carbon storage – capture and storage opportunity set.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great, that’s very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Alan, thank you today for the uptick on capital allocation, I have two follow-up questions. First, just to go back to the upstream related assets, in terms of the JV structure that you are going to be setting up, are you seeing any of the learnings from the executing process that you just went through in terms of restructuring, gathering contracts with these new assets sort of protect Williams in the future? And as part of that, do you see it – do you see yourself retaining the assets on a very long-term basis or do you sort of see eventually selling it down the road?
John Chandler:
Shneur, we vaguely heard your question. You are cutting out quite a bit. Can you please repeat that?
Shneur Gershuni:
Sure. Just to repeat. So with the upstream assets and the JVs that you are looking to pursue at this point right now, are you going to be designing the midstream contracts to take advantage of the learnings that you had through the bankruptcy process to make sure that you are protected in a long-term basis? And do you plan to hold the assets for a very long-term or is the whole period more of a medium-term?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question, and especially with some of the outcomes from the Delaware bankruptcy courts as it relates to gathering and whether those contracts on land or not. So, we certainly are doing everything we can to improve our position on those. As we’ve said many times before, and it kind of proved out in these cases, it’s not just the law or – I mean, certainly, your contracts need to be good and supportive. But importantly, it is the physical nature of the asset, and being all the way back to the wellhead, it gives you a lot of economic protection in that situation. Having said all that, the one thing that we are really depending on in these transactions is the fact that the other party is going to invest the dollars to develop the acreage, and we’re cutting the bargain on that basis. And so to get right to the point, we’re going to retain those interests until that – until those capital dollars have been invested to prove to ourselves that, that money is going to be spent. If it doesn’t get spent, we still own the acreage. And whether money they spent in developing we retain and increase interest in a more developed property. So I would say, we certainly don’t expect that. We know the partners that we’re talking to here pretty well, and they both have a very strong financial position. So in this case, we feel really good about the situation. But I would say that we’ve got belt and suspenders on in terms of the form of the structure that we’re seeing. That is if effectively bankruptcy proved given our continued holdings until the dollars have been invested to develop the acreage.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. I think it’s important to emphasize Alan that we didn’t have a meaningful contract projection through all of the bankruptcies that occurred last year. We have been very deliberate in investing in infrastructure that is absolutely critical to the upstream asset and so both in Haynesville and Wamsutter. At the end of the day, the bankruptcy process really wasn’t all that relevant. What was relevant was that our infrastructure is absolutely critical. And without it, the upstream asset can’t deliver value. You can’t deliver volume. And so we have a very strong position across our footprint. I think we proved it last year, not a single bankruptcy proceeding led to a rejection of one of our contracts because we’ve invested in critical infrastructure that just, by its nature, protects against that risk. And then on the long-term investment, I think Alan may want to add is, we are again very focused on structuring these transactions in a way that brings development back to high-quality acreage, upstream of areas where we have existing available midstream capacity. And so we’re going to see in these structures a near-term investment in these properties that will deliver the ownership from a long-term perspective, primarily to our JV partner. We may have a small ownership interest that we retain from a long-term perspective, but we will likely only hold the ownership interest as long as it takes to make sure that development gets back into the properties and drive the volume to our midstream assets. So that’s – we are laser-focused on that as our strategy, not to just own upstream properties forever. It’s to own them in a way that drives the development that we think will drive value to our midstream assets.
Shneur Gershuni:
Well, very thoughtful. Thank you for that. And maybe just as a follow-up to the Sequent acquisition. Appreciate everything that you’ve already laid out with respect to today. I’m trying to understand the capabilities that come with the acquisition. Are you basically buying a team that is laser-focused on capacity management and so forth? Or does it come with – are they data scientists and come with algorithms and technology that can do something that is well beyond your current capabilities just given the fact that you’ve been in this business in the past?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. No. I would just say, and I’ll let Chad – I would say this is kind of a team that’s really skilled at blocking, tackling and risk control. And the positions they’re taking are nothing exotic. It is simply looking to manage basis differential, manage contracts, reimburse contracts through asset management agreements with utilities. So this is a very low-risk approach, but it does involve a lot of customer contact and a lot of opportunity to serve customers in space. But it’s basically basis and time value on storage versus physical inventory. So it’s nothing exotic and market-leading or market-making kind of activities.
Chad Zamarin:
And Shneur, we – and Alan said this earlier, we have intentionally been focused on expanding our capabilities on that for the last couple of years. And our team has done a great job. They’ve been growing their capabilities. So we grew from a very, very small level to still a very small level, but it’s still been a lot of work on the team. This gets us much quicker to a larger scale capability on the back of more sophisticated systems. They have a more – we have a quality risk control process internally within Williams. They have a very high-quality risk control system. And so we picked up the benefits of a very well thought out structure from risk control, accounting systems, trade, marketing systems. We just – it helps move us forward that much quicker and something that we would have probably spent the next 4 or 5 years trying to build, we get there more quickly.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And I would just say, in addition to that, we look at a lot of different opportunities in this space. And the reason we got so comfortable with this transaction is Southern companies have done a fantastic job of really keeping the screws turn down from a risk control standpoint and really building a culture around that. And so this is a very well controlled business, and we’ve been very impressed with the time and effort that Southern companies has invested in making this a heavily controlled business. But at the end of the day, Southern companies doesn’t have all the big long-term external customers on both the upstream and the downstream the way we do. And so this is a great fit for us. I totally understand where they’re coming from in terms of their sale. But for us, this is really an important capability for a company that handles 30% of the nation’s natural gas, really complementary. And I think we’ve got a lot to offer to that team as well in terms of new opportunities to work around our customers and assets as well off of those services. So it really – this is really, I think, attractive transaction between two companies that know each other well and done a lot of business together, and we’re really excited about bringing this team.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. I think you got it, really simply it was a pipeline and storage optimization platform owned by a utility. We are a pipeline and storage company. And we’ll now own a pipeline and storage optimization platform. This is not speculative marketing and trading. This is taking – understanding pipeline and storage fundamentals and optimizing infrastructure. And when you think about the areas that we’ve just left an era of expansion in construction, and we move into an era of realizing the value of existing infrastructure, a platform focused on optimization of the existing infrastructure is going to be really valuable. And so we see it as an accelerator of capabilities across our core business. And we’re going to be exploring a lot of different ways, I think, to create opportunity with the addition of Sequent team.
Shneur Gershuni:
Perfect. Thank you very much for that. Appreciate the color and have a great day.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with Truist Securities.
Tristan Richardson:
Hi, good morning guys. Just a question on capital in 2022, I think in prior calls, Alan emphasized that once the leverage is at the long-term target priorities like further investing in the rate base and emissions reduction projects or the initiatives are the priorities for capital allocation. Just wanted to get your views on that versus further de-levering or, as you suggested in prepared comments, thinking about returning cash to shareholders.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thank you very much. I would just say, we are – we remain – look – and we’ll look at all those options as we enter into next year. Obviously, once we’ve committed to capital projects, then that option has been eliminated when you start down that road, obviously. But we certainly up until the time that we take a look at those investment opportunities against the whatever price of our stock is and where we think the best value is. But the good news is we’re sitting here in ‘22 with a modest amount of free cash flow that gives us flexibility, but as we get into ‘22, the – take rocket science to run math and realize that, that starts to build on us. And so we will have quite a bit of opportunity there. And I wouldn’t say that we’re committed to making those emission reduction projects happen yet until we get down to seeing what stock price is, what returns look like, but that is certainly one of the options. And I think on the further debt reduction, obviously, if we become convinced that further – debt reduction would add value to our shareholders, then that’s a lever we could continue to pull on as well. And so I would just say, it’s hard to predict what the markets will look like 9 months from now, but we certainly are, to the point now as we continue to engage with the Board on this discussion, this is becoming a more prevalent topic, if you will, at Board meetings in terms of what’s the best use of the extra free cash flow as we get into ‘22 and beyond.
Tristan Richardson:
It’s helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, just with the activity you’re seeing on both G&P segments, possibly looking stronger in the second half and combined with some of the Northeast projects like Oak Grove, should we be optimistic for growth in 2022 in both of the G&P businesses, where we sit today?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say things are looking pretty favorable right now. I mean look the gas prices, NGL prices here through the summer months and starting to look out into the four markets. Certainly, the market is starting to put a call on gas in these areas, whether it’s the Northeast PA, the Southwest PA, the Utica or the Haynesville, they’re all well positioned to make pretty good margin in this kind of pricing environment that you’re seeing now almost $3 summer gas price. So yes, if that continues, that will drive activity on those assets and will drive growth. So I like our setup for the balance of the year. Obviously, as John said, we’re being reserved in how we’re putting that into guidance, but that looks good. And I would say, obviously, if you think about really what drives some of those decisions, a lot of times, it is the forward market for a lot of our customers that drives those decisions. And so they will start to look at what the forward strip looks like and start to lay in hedges. And that’s going to drive the activity, frankly, in terms of how much – how many drilling commitments they make in an area. So I would just say, keep your eyes focused on kind of the forward markets for both gas and NGLs, and that’ll be a pretty good indicator of what kind of activity we should expect across those areas.
Tristan Richardson:
Appreciate. Thank you, Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kania with Wolfe Research.
Alex Kania:
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just a follow-up on the Sequent questions, just looking back on Southern’s comments on their call, they did talk about it having a significant amount of balance sheet or parental guarantee support required as well as maybe some volatility in terms of the results there. I guess maybe my questions are just, are there going to be any synergies that maybe the company has that might try to minimize some of the parental guarantees that might be required maybe relative to Southern? And the other one that’s just talking about overall, the volatility there, on average, about maybe $40 million of net income, I think, is what they said. But is there a – maybe a sense that you may be able to kind of make that more kind of stable and predictable under the kind of the broader platform that you have?
John Chandler:
Well, yes, this is John Chandler. First on the guarantees, I think you need to understand we guarantee a lot of our subsidiaries, too, and a big part of that number, they were talking about is just simply the guarantees they make for monthly transactions at Sequent. I think if you look at Sequent, their revenues are somewhere in the $7 billion range. And if you divide that by 12 – I mean, all that’s happening is the parent was guaranteeing its subsidiary who was doing purchase transactions under the AMA or just general marketing activities with very low risk. They have a very tight risk control process. So there’s not risk on those trades. So there was a guarantee in their subsidiary, just like we guaranteed one of our subsidiaries. That’s $400 million to $500 million of guarantees. And so that number was a little bit flashy, but it’s not anything of substance. It’s not like guaranteeing some risk asset. Hopefully, that makes sense. And so beyond that, really, the transport fees, most regulated pipelines have maximum of 90 days requirements if you fall below invest grade. If you’re investment grade, you don’t have any requirements. But if you fall below investment grade, you have obligations, but they’re only 90 days. So that’s a much smaller part of that guarantee. So again, I would just say, really, $600 million to $700 million of that guarantee number that you may have heard Southern talk about, we are just simple monthly or quarterly guarantees – for monthly guarantees of their rate with very little risk, because there is really no changes to that. That’s just the normal course business activity. One thing we haven’t talked much about EBITDA generation. I mean we see a pretty consistent in their history – a pretty consistent, I think, Southern talked about this, EBITDA generation of $20 million to $30 million from this business, and we expect it to stay somewhere under our – there will be an occasional market dislocation like we just saw, but generally, $20 million to $30 million of EBITDA generation. That doesn’t mean the earnings will be consistently that way. We will be doing adjustments to our EBITDA, where some quarters, it may be quite a bit bigger; some quarters, less. But over a year, it would average out to that $20 million to $30 million. So hopefully, that answers your question. But there’s not huge credit exposure for us as a company other than the just normal ongoing business activities of Sequent.
Alex Kania:
Great. That was helpful. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen:
Hey, good morning everyone. Most of my questions have been asked or answered. I’m just curious on the additional solar projects that were identified, just kind of where you think you are in the $400 million, I think, bogey that you put out there during the ESG Day? Does that – how much closer that takes you to that?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Yes. This is Chad. We’ve got pretty in line of sight to what we showed in our ESG Investor Day and potentially even more than that. Of the 13 projects that had what we consider advance beyond day 1, over half of those are now filed with utility regulators in order for us to advance those projects, which means we’ve locked in scope. We’ve locked in land. We have a commercial construct that we are comfortable with and those will go beyond what we call Gate 2 in the near-term, which is effectively in FID stage. So of the 16 now projects that we have, it’s over $250 million of investment opportunities. We would expect and we have a goal for at least half of those projects to achieve what we’re considering FID this year. That – I’m pretty confident that all those projects will get where we need to be. But the primary initial gating item is making sure we’ve got sufficient land, and that’s really what drives the ultimate size and scope of the project. And so that’s what we’re spending the most time on, on the front end here. But I’d say we still have pretty strong line of sight to the kind of scale that we identified during our Investor Day.
Gabriel Moreen:
Thanks, Chad. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, I noticed that – I think Northeast Supply enhancement filed for an extension at the FERC. Is that project still being worked? I mean I’m just quite curious kind of how that project fits in the portfolio now if at all considering regional energy access?
Michael Dunn:
Hi, Gabe, it’s Michael. Yes. We had a – an expiration of that certificate that was upcoming. And so through just the normal course, requested an extension on that. We still have a proceeding agreement, basically a contract with our customer there. They have not canceled the project as yet. And obviously, they are still struggling, getting their other projects off the ground from a permitting standpoint that we’re going to supplement in the near-term, their ability to serve their customers, increased usage of natural gas. So we thought it was prudent to go ahead that extension. And other than that, we’re not working with projects with the exception of having conversations with our customers at this time. We still think there is a great need for natural gas in that market. There is still a great opportunity to take fuel oil out of that market and improve the emissions profile in the Northeast. And we’re still ready to serve that market when the customer and or the regulatory jurisdictions see fit to allow us to do that.
Gabriel Moreen:
Thanks, Michael.
Michael Dunn:
But we have no capital allocated to the project at this time, just to be clear.
Gabriel Moreen:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question for the day comes from the line of Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill:
Just following up on Tristan’s question, you talked at the beginning that you’re beginning to review how to allocate capital given that you’ve reached your leverage target. Will you make that the capital allocation decisions or some type plan public maybe in 2022 when you finish that review?
Alan Armstrong:
Becca, I think it will probably just come out in, for instance, if we commit to emission reduction projects that drive our capital budget for ‘22 higher, then that’s kind of where we would announce that. And if we haven’t done that, then it would – then the two options to that would be further debt reduction just naturally or for buybacks of shares as another alternative. So I think as we start to formulate our 2022 CapEx budget and our strategy sessions with the Board, which then rotate into budget meetings towards the end of the year, that’s really when we’ll be making the decisions on whether that money will go to investments in new CapEx or left those other two alternatives. And I would think that by the first of the year, then we would be in a position to say what we would expect to do if it wasn’t going towards further capital investment.
Becca Followill:
Great. Thank you, that’s all I had.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Becca.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you, Amicus.
Operator:
Thank you. Have a nice day.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to The Williams Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane Vice President of Investor Relations, please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks, Lindsay, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and a presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles. These reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the day's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great, and thanks Danilo and thank you all for joining us today. We're pleased to share the results of a very strong fourth quarter, rounding out a year of record business performance for Williams that yet again, illustrates the stability and predictability of our business. So starting here with Slide 1. First of all, I'm thrilled to announce that our EBITDA once again exceeded the midpoint of our original guidance range for the fourth consecutive year and resulted in a 4% CAGR for the same four-year period. And that also during the same period, we dramatically improved our credit metrics through our asset sell program. So, really, a nice steady period here of very predictable growth and balance sheet improvement. This unmatched predictability is important to our value proposition and is further reinforced by this being the 20th consecutive quarter of meeting or exceeding Street expectations. We also met or exceeded all of our other key financial metrics allowing us to once again produce positive free cash flow, even after buying the outstanding interest in Cayman 2 that controls Blue Racer Midstream in the fourth quarter. Our focus on continuously improving our project execution, our operating margin ratio, reliability metrics and safety performance delivered strong financial performance again in 2020 and allowed us to yet again achieve record gas gathering volumes and contracted gas transmission capacity. In all of these steady improvements and accomplishments build offers as a clear foundational strategy that allows us to stay focused and aligned across the organization. We demonstrated incredible business resiliency in a year of unprecedented challenges for our industry and our country. Our strong results in 2020 showed just how durable this business can be against several headwinds such as the COVID-19 pandemic and associated oil price collapse, major customer bankruptcies, and an active hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico that exceeded anything from an outage standpoint that we had on record. This tumultuous 2020 market environment allowed us to truly distinguish ourselves. In fact, we were one of the few midstream companies to maintain and in fact deliver on our pre-COVID guidance ranges that we provided to you in 2019. And I'm excited to see what this organization can produce without the large number of headwinds that we navigated through this past year in 2021. Moving on here. In addition to executing on our business in 2020, we accelerated our ESG performance. Last summer, Williams became the first U.S. midstream company to announce a climate commitment, setting an emissions reduction goal for 2030 that is based on real achievable targets and that imposes accountability on the management team that’s setting these goals. We believe that focusing on the right here and right now opportunity sets us on a positive trajectory to achieving net zero target by 2050. In addition, we co-led an industry effort to standardize ESG metrics with the Energy Infrastructure Council. And in January, we hosted the industry's first ever ESG event specifically devoted to sharing the company's direction, goals, aspirations, and tangible accomplishments related to ESG performance. In summary, in 2020, we once again demonstrated the stability and predictability of our business. And importantly, we've also shown the ability to focus and execute our plan without being distracted by the challenging macro backdrop. And with that, I'll turn it over to John to go through the details.
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. As a very high-level summary for the quarter, our cost reduction efforts, new Transco projects brought into service, incredibly strong results out of our Northeast G&P segment, and a catch-up of minimum volume commitment EBITDA from a favorable Wamsutter/South and bankruptcy settlement helped to offset a decline in profits from deferred revenue step-downs at our Gulfstar Deepwater platform along with shut-ins from hurricane activities early during the fourth quarter of 2020. As you can see, the strong performance in our statistics on this page. In fact, we saw improvement in all of our key financial metrics both for the fourth quarter and for the full year. First, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up $52 million or 4% for all of the reasons I just mentioned. The same played out on our year-to-date results. Adjusted EBITDA year-to-date was up $90 million or 2%. However, I think it's interesting to point out that if you adjust for non-cash to deferred revenue step-downs at our Gulfstar platform and at our Barnett gathering system, both of which were known and expected, as well as a few other smaller non-cash items our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA without these non-cash comparability items is actually up 4%. Again, much like it was during the fourth quarter. We'll discuss EBITDA variances in more depth in a moment. Adjusted EPS for the quarter increased 29% largely due to increased EBITDA and reduced income taxes where during the fourth quarter of 2019 there was a larger than normal state tax adjustment and also to a certain extent lesser interest expense this year. Our year-to-date EPS is also up 11%, again due to increased EBITDA, lower allocations of income to non-controlling interest owners and again to a lesser extent due to lower interest expense. This quarter representing a new cash flow metric, and we'll continue to present this going forward. The measure is available funds from operations. This measure will replace distributable cash flow and is similar to DCF except it's derived from cash from operations and as before all capital spending including before maintenance capital. Or said differently, AFFO is simply cash from operations adjusting out working capital fluctuations and also adjusting for cash flows from or to our non-controlling interest owners that shows up in the financing section of our cash flow statement. A reconciliation of this measure to cash from operations can be found in the appendix of this presentation and also in our analyst package. You can see the AFFO grew for both the fourth quarter and year-to-date similar to the growth in adjusted EBITDA except some of the EBITDA growth is from our consolidated JVs. And so, some of that growth does belong and does flow to our JV owners. Distributable cash flow increase for the quarter did a higher EBITDA and also due to a $42 million alternative minimum tax refund we received during the quarter that was not present in the 2019 period. DCF for the year is also up again due to higher EBITDA and lower maintenance capital, offset somewhat by increased EBITDA paid to our non-controlling interest owners and due to a lower alternative minimum tax cash refunds that we received for overall in 2020 versus 2019. On the capital spending front, our intentional capital discipline drove capital spending down this year and free cash flow up. And to that point, our total capital spending for the year was 40% less than last year and that our spending this year included the acquisition of most of the remaining interest in the Cayman 2 Blue Racer ownership for about $160 million in mid-November. As a result of that acquisition, we are now at 50% owner of Blue Racer with first reserve owning the other 50% interest. And we're excited to see what synergies we can bring to that business now that we have a larger stake and we're the operator. Included in this capital spending number is also maintenance capital, which for the year was $393 million, about $107 million less than it was in 2019. Finally, if you put our AFFO in 2020 of $3.6 million, up against our total capital spending including maintenance of $1.5 billion and our dividends of $1.9 billion, you can see that we were free cash flow positive in 2020. This strong cash generation and capital discipline has helped move us towards our goal to improve our leverage metrics for the year. And this year, our debt-to-EBITDA metrics ended at 4.35 times down from 4.39 times at the end of 2019. So now let's go to the next slide and dig in a little deeper into our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, Williams performed very well this quarter. As you'll hear throughout each segment, cost control has been a big benefit this year. Before we dive in each segment, we believe it's important to isolate a few unusual items to make the numbers more comparable and reflective of the ongoing performance of the business. We've identified those unusual items which are shown on this chart as non-cash comparability items. Interestingly for the quarter, they net only $2 million dollars and they consist primarily of two things. The first is a $24 million reduction in non-cash deferred revenue step-down and our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico segment on our Deepwater Gulfstar platform. As a reminder of deferred revenue, we received significant upfront cash payments several years ago from the Deepwater producer but did not recognize revenue at that time. We have an amortizing the payments we previously received in the income over the last several years and that amortization has been shrinking. The second unusual item is a $20 million minimum volume commitment through-up that we made in the fourth quarter of 2020 related to our settlement with South who agreed to pay us the MVCs they owed us for the year. This adjustment is for the first through the third quarter that we recorded in the fourth quarter. We had stopped recording those MVCs at the beginning of 2020 when South originally filed for bankruptcy. So with or without those non-cash items, our EBITDA was at over 4%. Our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico segment produced results that were $25 million better than the same period last year. New transmission pipeline projects added $17 million in revenues for the quarter including the Gateway project that came into service in the fourth quarter of 2019. The Hillabee Phase 2 project that came into service in the second quarter of 2020 and the Southeastern Trails project that went into service during the fourth quarter of 2020. We also did have a little over $20 million in lower costs during the fourth quarter of 2020 due to lower maintenance and lower cost during the fourth quarter of 2020 due to lower maintenance and lower labor expenses. Offsetting these positives was $10 million in lower Gulf of Mexico profits due to shut-ins resulting from hurricane activity occurring in October which is unusual for hurricane activity this late in the year. The impact of the shut-ins can be further seen in reduced deepwater gathering volumes which were down about 13% quarter-over-quarter. The Northeast G&P segment continues to come on very strong producing record results and contributing $29 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 7% in the quarter and processing volumes were up 9%. The volume growth was predominately at our joint ventures in the Bradford Supply Hub where we benefited from a gathering system expansion on that system in late 2019 and at our Marcellus South supply basin where we benefited from more productive wells at larger pads. As a result, our EBITDA from equity method investments improved by a little over $20 million in the Northeast which also includes the additional benefit of additional profits from Blue Racer, again, due to our increased ownership which again was acquired in mid-November. The Northeast also benefited from cost reduction efforts of about $9 million, much of which came from reduced labor cost. And then finally on the West. Our West segment was down about $8 million compared to 2019. But within that, revenues overall improved a little less than $10 million dollars in the West with increases coming from higher rates in net MVCs in the Eagle Ford supply basin due to the contract renegotiations that we completed with Chesapeake in late 2019 and due to special payments received from our partner on OPPL for allowing them to pull volumes off of the system. These revenue increases were offset somewhat by lower deferred revenues in the Barnett Shale, lower Haynesville revenues due to lower volumes and rate, and slightly lower volumes in the Mid-Continent and Rockies. Despite revenues being up, in total, gathered volumes for the West were down 8%. Interestingly though, roughly 90% of that volume decline occurred in the Haynesville, Eagle Ford and Wamsutter. And of note each of these basins were impacted by customer bankruptcy with the South reemergence filing bank reemergence filing a couple of weeks ago, all those bankruptcy should be resolved soon. Also of note, in two of those three basins where we saw a majority of our volumes decline, specifically in the Wamsutter and Eagle Ford, our revenues are protected by MVC’s so overall the reduced volumes only had a small impact on revenues. And just as with our other segments, the West experienced lower costs with about $3 million as we keep a relentless focus on efficiencies and cost controls. Now offsetting the higher revenues and lower costs in the West where commodity margins which declined about $8 million due in part to lower volumes and due to a contract commitment there. We also had the absence of a favorable property tax reimbursement that we received in the fourth quarter of 2019. That was $6 million and it was something that we'd received from a third-party compression provider. And we also had lower JV EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2020 of $4 million with most of that coming from lower OPPL profits and again though our partner going OPPL whole as I mentioned a minute ago reflected in our revenues. Now moving to year-to-date results. You know, our year-to-date results showed growth of 1.8% of adjusted EBITDA driven by many of the same factors affecting our fourth quarter growth. The Barnett and Gulfstar noncash deferred revenue step downs totaled $109 million in 2020 versus 2019. While the net impact of commodity price fluctuations on our inventory line proposition created an $8 million noncash reduction in EBITDA. So, without those noncash comparability items, full year adjusted EBITDA results were actually up more like 4% much like our fourth quarter results. And then looking at that by segment the Transmission and Gulf of Mexico assets delivered $41 million of growth with an uplift coming from expansion projects and expense reductions being offset somewhat by lower Gulf of Mexico volumes and the impact that has had on commodity margins in the TGOM area. In the Gulf of Mexico, the total impact of shut-ins from COVID, hurricanes and the price collapse earlier in 2020 had about a negative $49 million impact to our EBITDA. The Northeast is obviously a huge part of our growth this year, adding $194 million in EBITDA in 2020 versus the prior year with the overall gathering volumes up 7% and incremental revenues being realized from processing, transportation of fractionation of gas and NGLs while at the same time we have been reducing costs. And finally, in the West, it’s off by $33 million largely because of the Barnett MVC payment that ended in June of 2019 and lower Haynesville profits due to lower realized rates, being offset somewhat by reduced operating expenses in the West. Otherwise in the West, our gather volumes were down about 4%, but they were largely offset by higher rates in the MVCs and Eagle Ford the renegotiated contract with Chesapeake in December of 2019. So, again, all in all, despite a tough market and a tough hurricane season, we've had a really good year on the backs of cost reductions, Northeast performance and new pipeline projects coming into service on Transco. I'll now turn the call back over to Alan to discuss our 2021 guidance. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thanks, John. And now, we're going to turn to our 2021 EBITDA guidance metrics. So, I want to emphasize that we continue to expect the same level of supportive fundamentals underpinning our base business for 2021. However, we do have more upside potential than we had in 2020 in this plan due in part to upstream transactions that have the potential to drive incremental cash flows across our midstream assets in 2021 and beyond, plus an emerging gas storage imbalance caused by the recent higher demand that will likely we put a call on gas-directed drilling here in 2021 as well. So, we're providing our initial EBITDA guidance range of $5.05 billion to $5.35 billion with the midpoint up 2% over last year. And we'll get to EBITDA drivers here in just a second on what those specifics are. But let's go through the rest of the guidance here. Our available funds from operations or AFFO as John described which will now replace DCF are expected to be within a range of $3.55 billion to $3.85 billion, which translates to a per share range of $2.92 up to $3.16 per share. And importantly, even with the 2.5% increase in the dividend announced earlier in the year, we are still maintaining similar coverage on our dividend whether we're looking at DCF metric or AFFO metric. And this continues to really underscore the continued safety of our dividend. Our growth CapEx of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion is expected to remain in line with 2020. And this includes known opportunistic upstream acquisitions in Wamsutter Basin that will be immediately accretive to both credit metrics and earnings. And notably, we still expect to generate free cash flow after CapEx and dividends which provide us financial flexibility. And speaking of financial flexibility, we estimate ending the year with a leverage ratio of 4.25 with the line of sight that we have currently to a targeted 4.2 objective as we have consistently over achieved on this metric, and I know a lot of you all follow that very closely. We’ll continue to perform very well on that and we think we've got a lot of things that could help drive us towards that 4.2 or getting to that 4.2 here in 2021. So looking at drivers of our 2021 EBITDA guidance, we expect continued Northeast G&P growth from the base business and to a lesser extent, the bolt-on Blue Racer acquisition. In our Transmission and Gulf of Mexico business, we see Transco growth continuing to add stable EBITDA via the Southeastern Trails Project that was just placed in service ahead of schedule at the end of the year. And we expect late year contributions to come from our Leidy South expansion which is now under construction. And additionally, we expect a nice recovery in our Gulf of Mexico earnings this year due to less production outages from hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic impacts. Offsets to our EBITDA growth are driven primarily from lower NGL throughput on the jointly-owned Overland Pass pipeline, lower earnings on our jointly-owned Rocky Mountain Midstream business in the DJ basin, and lower gathering rates from our global resolution in the Haynesville with Chesapeake Energy. So, these are partial offsets that we do already have built into our guidance. And of course, on that last note, a lot of potential upside too is coming in the Haynesville, both from a much healthier Chesapeake, well-positioned to develop the Haynesville which is very well-positioned in this gas market as well as our ability to drive volumes on the upstream properties that we now control. Our takeaway here is that our EBITDA is primarily driven by growth in the base business with upstream EBITDA accounting for less than 1% of this forecast. We purposely did not include a full year of the upstream EBITDA from these existing producing reserves because we fully intend to transact during the year in a way that allows us to enjoy midstream cash flow growth in 2022 and beyond as we find the right partner to fully exploit the growth available in these high-value properties that we were able to pick up this past year. So, we are in a very strong position now to ensure that this acreage is developed quickly and gets turned into fee-based growth on our existing midstream capacity. So, we really are excited about the upside potential that we positioned ourselves for around that business. So in closing, I'll reiterate that intense focus on her natural gas-based strategy has built a business that is steady and predictable with continued moderate growth, improving returns, and free cash flows. Our best-in-class long-haul pipes are in the right place and our formidable gathering assets are in low-cost bases that will be called on to meet gas demands that continue to grow. We remain bullish on natural gas because we recognize the critical role it plays and will continue to play in both our countries and the world pursuit of a clean energy future. Natural gas is an important component of today's fuel mix and should be prioritized as one of the most important tools to aggressively displace more carbon intensive fuels around the world. Williams is focused on sustainable operations including ready now solutions to address climate change and by setting a near-term goal for 2030, we will leverage our natural gas-focused strategy and today's technologies to focus on immediate opportunities to reduce emissions in and around our business. We also are looking forward and anticipating future innovations and technologies that we can use on our key energy network to deliver on this next phase of energy transition. I also think it is important in light of last week's severe cold weather event to talk about the resiliency and reliability of our natural gas infrastructure. Despite historic coal that envelope much of the country, Williams did not have to curtail any services to our gas transmission customers and in fact operated above designed capacity on our Northwest pipeline system for a period and delivered flawlessly on a new record three-day peak on the Northwest Pipeline system. Our customers expect this from us based on our long history of performance and we are certainly glad that they do. However, last week's weather demonstrated the importance of a comprehensive energy strategy of the need for a comprehensive energy strategy for the US, one that doesn't demonize one energy source over the other but that includes a mix of energy that does not drive towards singular dependency because of labels imposed by the environmental opposition. And there are important and complex decisions that need to be balanced to address the things that we all want from our energy sources, reliability, affordability and balancing the issues of carbon intensity. And when we think about carbon intensity, we really have to consider that from a global perspective. And we believe that when all of these factors are accurately weighed and balanced, natural gas will be a very critical part of the energy mix for many more decades to come. So, finally, I want to recognize the tremendous efforts of our entire workforce in ensuring the safe and reliable delivery of natural gas to America's cities and communities not only this last week in the face of severe weather challenges but amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Many of those who benefit from our services may never realize the work needed to ensure that continued access to safe and reliable energy. Our employees are critical infrastructure workers on the frontlines of keeping our country's natural gas system operating and flowing, doing so while also enduring power outages and lack of water at their own homes. I am extremely proud of our employees for their efforts to keep our operations running smoothly during these extreme circumstances while also going the extra mile to keep themselves and their co-workers safe and healthy. And with that, I'll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to touch based on the CapEx outlook, as you talked about it there, the $1 billion to $1.2 billion, and just wanted to see what's, the drivers behind that? Could there potentially be CapEx creep or do you see this as kind of a steady level? And then, just - if you could expand a bit more on the opportunistic upstream acquisitions in the Wamsutter, what that is exactly, that would be very helpful? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
You bet, Jeremy thank you. Well first of all, I would say we - in our base business, we have about $900 million of capital in what would be our normal base business. It is a little bit lower than what we've had historically. And that is about - half of that is in TGOM. So, that includes [indiscernible], it includes building out Leidy South, kind of the final dollars on Southeastern Trail’s and clean-up and so forth on Southeastern Trail’s and some money on the front-end of the REA project. So, that’s kind of the primary drivers there in TGOM that's about half of that $900 million. And then, on the balance of that, about two-thirds of that is in the Northeast both finishing up projects, as well as getting some new project started that are driving higher margins for us in the new Northeast and some of that growth. A lot of that investment actually will drive growth in 2022, there in the Northeast as well. And then, finally the balance of that is in the West. Some of that is in the Permian, pretty good expansion going on in the Permian as well as in the Haynesville area. As we're really going to be having to work hard to keep out front of a lot of drilling activity that's emerging there in the Haynesville. So, that pretty well rounds that up. The second part of your question around the opportunistic upstream involves us taking advantage of the strong position we had with our midstream assets out there, particularly around the Southland bankruptcy. And we will be in the position of acquiring both the BP acreage out there that's adjacent and intermingled with that as well as the Southland acreage. And we're able - given our position in the bankruptcy there. We were able to pick that up for some very attractive pricing. And as a result now, we're going to be working to gain the right person, the right party to rapidly develop those reserves and take advantage of the late and midstream capacity that we have out there. So, we are really excited about that both in the Wamsutter, because there's a tremendous amount of value to be driven across our midstream assets. By using the PDP cash flows to drive that as well as in the Haynesville where we're already seeing Chesapeake get very focused on developing the remaining - the northern part of the Haynesville that they hang on to. And as well as some very attractive interest coming from parties that we're in the process to find the right party to develop the Haynesville acreage. So, I want to make it clear we have no intention of hanging on to that. We're not going to become an E&P business. There is no ifs, ands or buts on that front. But this does allow us to put the right parties in place and assure ourselves that we have the right parties in place to take the cash flows off of these assets and put it back into the drill bit to drive midstream cash flows. So, really has turned into something actually a lot more positive than we were expecting. And we really feel like there's a lot of upside from this both in 2021 and as well though into 2022 and beyond as we attracted the capital to develop those reserves. So really what is normally an area that might have been a problem for us with all these bankruptcies. We really were able to find a way to really turn some lemons into lemonade there. And we're really excited about the kind of value that's going to be driven out there over the next several years.
John Chandler:
And Jeremy just to be clear there and I think it was, but just to reiterate. In our midpoint guidance for growth capital of $1.1 billion that included those acquisitions of that upstream acreage in the Wamsutter. And so Alan mentioned - a run rate for everything other than that of $900 million maybe a little bit more than $900 million. So, we paid less than $200 million for those assets actually significantly less than $200 million, not more than $150 million to $160 million for that acreage. Then we have very little EBITDA on our guidance for that, because we're not sure exactly what kind of partnership structure we'll have if somebody else just buy a part of that acreage where we partner and we'll see EBITDA uplift. So, there's a lot of big upside I think that we can see out of that.
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, and one thing, and this is Chad to note, one of the reasons why I think we were uniquely positioned to step-in in this transitional role in Wamsutter and BP asset, the Southend asset are checkerboard of acreage in Wamsutter. And so, we were uniquely positioned to acquire those properties put them together as one continuous package and then move that, that asset to producer that can now develop it to its full potential. It was really locked in a situation where we couldn't have a producer get the full potential out of that acreage because of the checkerboard nature of Wamsutter. So, we're able to clean that up and now we're going to focus on moving that, that now contiguous position to a producer that can fully develop it - really reach its full potential.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that's very helpful color. Thanks. And just to recap on the CapEx side. It sounds like it's a very disciplined approach there, not really expecting any kind of creep over the course of the year from what you guys can see. Is that fair to take away there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes I think, just as we've demonstrated, in the last several years we continue to impose a lot of capital discipline around our decisions. Even last year, lowering as you recall the only thing we did move in our guidance last year was lowering our CapEx during the year. And then we wound up even including the Blue Racer acquisition coming in under that so, yes. And I'll tell you our project execution teams have really been knocking it out of the park in terms of managing cost very tightly even, even in a difficult environment like COVID continue to deliver our projects under budget. So, we feel very good about the capital budget range that we have.
John Chandler:
And the two key points there. We are free cash flow positive in 2021. So we'll generate more than enough cash to cover our dividends and capital and it allow us to de-leverage a little bit. That's the first important point. The second thing I'd say, we did give you maintenance capital guidance of I think at the midpoint, $450 million. Obviously, we spent under $400 million this year - in 2020. It was just artificially low just due to COVID and some issues getting some step-down in the field. So, I wouldn't call that creep. It is going back up from sub $400 million to about $450 million, but that's kind of what we believe kind of run rate to be our maintenance capital.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that's very helpful. And just one more, if I could post the election here, it seems like there's new energy policy coming out of D.C. and could impact federal lands production. Just wondering, any thoughts you could share with us on - higher level thoughts on energy policy coming out of D.C. and specifically, federal lands, how you think about that? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say - I'm going to - yes Mike will give you some detail here on the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, because obviously, that's the area that would most impact us of all of our areas; otherwise, we're not too terribly impacted by it. But we've seen, maybe, a different story than has been - that you're hearing in media in terms of the actual actions going on out there. And most of the acreage is ready to develop. But Michael, if you would kind of share some of the detail that we're seeing there on the Deepwater.
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning, Jeremy. We are seeing continued permitting activity coming from the current administration. Since the executive order came out, we've seen four applications for permits to drill. Already 60 of those have been issued in the Gulf of Mexico, 13 of those being on properties that are delivering to us. And then, when you talk about permits for modifications such as workovers, things of that nature on existing wells. 163 of those have been approved by the current administration and just under 30 of those are on our asset footprint. So, we're seeing a lot of activity for permit approvals out there. And in fact, we received our gas pipeline permit after the executive order for the Whale project. And they're continuing to process permits. And we had our Whale permit as we rolling for pipeline already last year. And so, we're continuing to work with our producer customers out there. And as you probably know, there is a lot of leases that they've locked up and a lot of permits that they already had in hand. And so, there's a long runway of activity that will continue to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, we believe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Praneeth Satish:
So now that you're the operator Blue Racer, can you just elaborate on any of the steps you could take there to increase utilization on the system or capture any of the low-hanging cost synergies?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sure. Michael, you want to take that?
Micheal Dunn:
There's definitely an opportunity to capture some synergies there just like we did with the UEO interim acquisition that we became the operator on that asset. We rolled that into our Northeast JV. And we are having those conversations very similar with Blue Racer where we can consolidate some of the operations up there, utilize latent capacity in either one of our systems to the benefit of the other. There's a lot of activity currently on our northeast JV systems up there where our processing is full today and our fractionation facilities are full as well. And so, we would be looking to possibly use some of the Blue Racer capacity should it become available to move some of those volumes over to them and vice versa ultimately. So, we think there's a lot of definite commercial synergy to there ultimately and certainly some operational synergies with the teams that are there.
Praneeth Satish:
And then, can you provide any more details on the producing assets that you received from Chesapeake in the Haynesville? Specifically, what is the production at right now on those assets? And any more clarity in terms of when you plan to monetize that?
Chad Zamarin:
This is Chad. Relatively small amount of existing production around 30 million a day kind of pre last week's poll. It’s recovering. That had dropped a bit but is recovering. So not a lot of existing production around 130 existing wells. But I will first say we were really encouraged to see Chesapeake emerging from bankruptcy as a really healthy customer. So, I'll touch on Southland in a second but just know that they're very active up in the Spring Ridge area where they remain the owner/operator with two rigs and we think likely go into three rigs. So, that was good to see. And in Southland field, we view that as an additional opportunity where we have 350 million to 550 million a day of capacity available from a midstream perspective for development in that area. We closed on that transaction prior to 2021, and we've been out now talking to potential partners and we've seen incredibly plus interest in this asset. It is a contiguous locked-up position in some really top-tier both Haynesville and Mid-Bossier area and, again, has available midstream capacity. I would say that we're likely to finalize our partnership strategy over the next couple of months. I expect that we will have a very strong well-capitalized partner that will operate that asset and will dedicate one to two rigs at any given time to really fill up and utilize that capacity. So, we've seen an incredible amount of interest and I think we're really confident that we're going to find a great partner there and unlock the potential of that asset.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And I would just add to that we are well into that process in terms of finding the right partner on that and we've been very encouraged by the strong level of interest from a number of parties. But we're not waiting around on that. We move very quickly. Chad and his team move very quickly to find the right partner.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Christine Cho of Barclays. Your line is now open.
Christine Cho:
Thank you. If I could maybe just talk about the high end of the EBITDA range that you gave for 2021, Alan, it sounds like you said it's mostly driven by your expectations for a call on gas especially with what went on last week. So, is this really driven by G&P volumes and is it mostly in the Northeast? I just wasn't sure if Haynesville and Wamsutter was included in that or if that was more of a post 2021 impact. And have the producers behind the system in the Northeast started to talk to you about these plants, if that is the case?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thank you. Well, Christine, you're targeting right on the correct issue there. We really developed that plan before we've seen this recent call. And I think this week, we're going to see a huge pull on natural gas from storage this week and likely take us down below the five-year average. And meanwhile, production, we really haven't seen the activity in production to stabilize that decline in storage and the places that are going to be able to respond to that quickly are going to be Haynesville and the Marcellus and Utica. And so we didn't have any of that in our plans when we laid this plan out so certainly that is upside to this. In fact, most of the growth in the Northeast was really just margin expansion. It wasn't really a lot of volume, expected volume growth. The growth that we've had there is really just been margin expansion. So that is certainly an attractive upside for us there. It is not based on the upstream at all. In fact, we basically assumed - we'd just got the PDP’s flowing in here for Haynesville and Wamsutter assuming a July kind of finality to finding the right owner, so we only have cash flows in here on the Wamsutter area through about July. And in the Haynesville, we do have the PDPs in there, but we also have development capital that likely would be coming out of there if that gets done. So, I wouldn’t be the first to admit that we've been very conservative on the upstream side of this because we really wanted to leave ourselves full flexibility, and we didn't to be able to either fully dispose of the asset if the right price was there, but at the end of the day we just wanted to have full flexibility, so we were very conservative in how we included the value of those upstream positions. And you're right. I think, the upsides are probably mostly related to volumes in the Northeast, but I would also say we remain pretty conservative in the forecast that we have for the Deepwater and any other area frankly that can contribute from the gas side. So, and then I would say the other area that we've included - we've assumed rising cost versus 2020. We did a great job in 2020 on cost. And our 2021 does assume that we've got some comeback on cost that frankly the team has been doing a terrific job of managing. And so with that, that's another area of opportunity for us as well.
John Chandler:
And just a couple of things maybe to play on that a little bit with Alan on Transco. We were successful in 2020 selling short-term firm both in Transco and Northwest pipe, and we don't have a repeat of that really in any meaningful way in 2021. That possibility still exists. We had all that hurricane activity in 2020, and our team reversed most of that in the forecast, but not all of that. We do expect that to be a little bit more active in 2021. And so, if that doesn't happen I think there is upside of just some additional EBITDA we just didn't put in that was left and is just conservative for hurricane activity. And then Alan pointed on the expenses. So, some of this is down.
Christine Cho:
Okay. That's helpful. And then actually if we can move on to the weather impacts that we've seen in Texas and to a lesser extent in Macon. Is all of your natural gas storage in Texas contracted to third parties or do you have some for your own use? And how should we think last week's weather impacted you guys? It sounded like it was pretty neutral from a financial perspective in your prepared remarks, but any color there would be helpful?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks, Christine. First of all, we actually don't have any gas storage in Texas. So, the storage on Transco is at Washington which is kind of the middle part of the state by Opelousas and so, that’s where the storage facilities are. So, there really wasn't a whole lot of impact there. And obviously, Transco is designed to flow from that area, designed to flow to the North and East, not back into Texas. In terms of the impact to us, I would say it was pretty small in terms of the impact to our gathering volumes just because we have such a dispersed business and the vast majority of our gathering is either Northeast or in the Rockies which were not directly impacted. But I would just say as well, our team did a great job of doing things like selling fuel and shrink that we had bought at first of the month, turning down our processing recoveries and then selling that fuel and shrink back into the market. And so, I would tell you that I think net-net, it's going to be a little bit of a positive for us in terms of the way we manage things. But we certainly saw a lot of outage in the Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana area on our gathering system that’s just a pretty small piece of our overall percentage of the business.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho. Your line is open.
Gabriel Moreen:
I just had one in terms of bases in Appalachia and just how you're thinking about that within your forecast and kind of the cadence of the Northeast. Is there anything in your forecast for producers toggling gas on and off particularly during the shoulder seasons?
Alan Armstrong:
Gabe, no. I would just say we pretty well just stick with the producers’ forecast that they've given us, and obviously they take that into consideration. And if the prices come up, they'll turn some volumes on, but a lot of the producers have their own takeaway capacity and certainly that amount that they're selling into that spot basis is pretty small, but it does impact their ability to sell incremental volumes if they have that. But we're not - that isn't driven a lot into our calculation. We basically just take what the producers are saying they're going to do. And to the degree that we have a line of sight for how that's going to happen and that's how we included. And so far, they've been pretty accurate, consistently pretty accurate in the way that they've been forecasting that. They know their reserves and they know the market. I will say that obviously we’re excited about Leidy South coming on and opening up additional capacity. That's about 580 million a day of additional takeaway capacity out of the Northeast. And our team has got a really good head start on Leidy South on the projects there. And so, again, great execution going on by that team. And then ultimately, REA will be additional takeaway out of that area as well. So, we're really - those projects are very important from a synergy standpoint because, not only do we get nice returns on the transmission, we get together and volume uplift - upstream of that as well.
John Chandler:
And now to the question on shut-ins in response to price where we certainly could still see producers respond to market dynamics. But I do think 2021 is going to look different than 2020. We're coming into out of the winter at a much different storage inventory level. We're seeing natural gas prices stronger than they were a year ago. We do think that there will be A - John acreage that will continue to represent the value of our existing infrastructure. We're going to see more LNG demand come online this year, and we're going to continue to see the need for growth and supply out of the northeast. So, I'm not sure we'll see bases that will drive shut-in activity, but I think it will continue to reinforce the value of having infrastructure to move from Appalachia to growing markets. But we'll certainly keep an eye on it.
Gabriel Moreen:
Thank you. And then maybe if I can just ask just kind of interesting a lot more time has been spent on the upstream assets sales and midstream asset sales, but maybe if I can ask kind of where the latest thinking is on additional midstream asset sales and whether I guess some of the impairments on assets like Rocky Mountain Midstream kind of change your thinking and evaluation about how those assets might fit with the portfolio longer term?
John Chandler:
Yes. I don't really think so, Gabe. I think we were as to the RMM impairment that we took that's an equity level investment. So, obviously, it's very different than along the way you value a consolidated asset where you take the total cash flows on the asset over time. But in those, you actually have to market to market effectively. And we've given some of the sales that we've seen in the space. We've seen some lower markings on the value of assets. And that's what drives those kind of considerations. And in fact, as a result of that, it would probably drive us in the other direction because it's basically saying there's a weak market right now for GDP assets. And if that's true then this probably wouldn't be the right time to be liquidating assets. So not to say we don't constantly have our eyes open to structure and things that can add value from that but I think, you know, we're in a position of getting to our leverage metrics in a pretty straightforward manner and particularly these upstream assets which could be a really nice tool for that as well. And so right now, I would tell you I'm not sure it's the very best time to be trying to liquidate those assets.
Alan Armstrong:
So, Gabe, one thing I think that is interesting, you know, when we were thinking about this early 2020, it was actually in January of 2020, I think we were heavy in the middle of thinking about trying to market some of our assets in the West. And there were a lot of question marks at the time around and around Chesapeake, what was going to happen at Chesapeake, what was going to happen in the West in general. And I think now a lot of those questions are cleared up and you can see through our performance I think we demonstrated the resiliency through diversification not that we didn't have issues in certain basins but we had good performance in other basins and it kind of washes itself out. And so, what I would say is while the market's probably a little bit weaker, I think our demonstrated performance on the business is a little bit stronger, a little bit clearer now a year later. So, I'm not sure what all that means but I think there's still opportunity still out there. And I think we've demonstrated strong performance which should help any if we ever wanted to pursue that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Spiro Dounis:
First question is just on how you're thinking about sustainable EBITDA growth in the current environment. You guys once again highlighted about in the current environment. You guys once again he has once again highlighted about a $12 billion backlog on transmission projects. And so, simplistically the way I thought about it was kind of reflects about 10 years of growth and current CapEx level which I guess was enough to grow EBITDA about 2% this year in 2021. So just curious if based on that backlog of projects in front of you, you think sustaining 2% annual growth for next decade or so is maybe a floor or something you deem sort of easily achievable?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I'm going to have Michael speak to that backlog on projects, but I think you have to be careful about drawing that kind of conclusion. Most of the projects that we've been doing have been 6%. We still were rolling off a lot of deferred revenue this last year and a little bit into 2021. So I think you have to be careful about making those kind of broad assumptions. So, for instance, when the Deepwater business comes on, that's going to be a very high growth rate on a fairly low amount of capital. And in the northeast sometimes we get nice surges of margin based on very high incremental return opportunities as they come to us. And on the other hand we have a decline bill that's just part of the gathering business if there's an area that's not growing. There's a decline that's working against it all the time. But I would tell you that it's more complex than taking $1 billion and saying that that produces 2%. On the other hand, I would say I think we feel very comfortable with the 2% growth rate if we are investing $1 billion we feel very comfortable with achieving a 2% growth rate. But given some of the upsides that we've got in some of these areas I think that probably would be kind of considered a floor from my perspective on that. So, Mike, we might talk about the Transco project..
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. We look at that backlog and it's really dynamic because we have a lot of projects that come into that backlog and then, we execute on a lot of those projects. And Southeastern Trail is one that came out of the backlog, Leidy South came out with that backlog and it became an execution project, and Regional Energy Access will be the same once we get that filing underway and get our permitting underway. And so, you'll continue to see projects come out of our backlog and move into the execution phase over the next several years. There is a plethora of opportunities along the Transco corridor to take advantage of coal-fired generation that's going to come offline and ultimately be converted to gas and to renewables. And I think from the activities we've seen in Texas and Oklahoma over the last week, there definitely needs to be a mixture of energy generation resources in the mix in order to diversify across fuel sources. And so, I'm a true believer in that our company is definitely a natural gas-focused company now adding in some renewable mix into the play there to take advantage of some opportunities we have. But ultimately, on the Transco system, we're going to be able to drive a lot of new capital investment there on the backs of coal-fired generation going away. And then lastly, our emissions reduction program projects. We have upwards of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion of investment opportunity there on Transco system and likely replacing a large component of our reciprocating compression to new modern either electric drives or gas turbines to reduce our emissions footprint there along the Transco corridor. So, there is definitely a lot of investment opportunity that we envision coming in the future for Transco’s asset footprint.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. Appreciate the color on that. Second one, just briefly going back to Blue Racer. Can you just talk about some of the circumstances that led up to you increasing your interest there and how you're thinking about the remaining stake you still don't own?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. So, just to remind people the ownership there, Blue Racer is - and Cayman 2 by the way, is no longer an entity. It'll now be Blue Racer
Alan Armstrong:
Midstream Holdings.
Micheal Dunn:
Midstream Holdings. Thank you. And so, now, that is owned effectively 50% by Williams and 50% percent by First Reserve, the parties that got out were primarily driven a consortium by Encap Flatrock Midstream. And so, that group has been an investor in that for a long time along with some of the management from Cayman 2. And obviously, they had held on to that much longer than a typical private equity shop likes to. And we've worked with them to liquidate them at the appropriate time. We think we bought it right at the right time and particularly given the large amount of synergies that we have available to extract from that business. And so, we're excited about the transaction. I can tell you we were super patient. We've been wanting to gain control of that asset and exploit the synergies between both our UEOM system and our Ohio Valley River. We've been wanting to take advantage of those. And it's been hard to not, but we've been patient. And I think our patience paid off and we're able to pick that up at a very attractive value. So that's kind of how I would offer that. But I think at the end of the day, it was a private equity held investment that was needing to get out the last investment they had and one of the funds they were wanting to get that look today.
Alan Armstrong:
And it was a pretty complicated structure. So not only do we get it, we got some really good value but we cleaned up. We were the majority owner who came in which was half of the owner in Blue Racer. And there were two different boards that managed the joint venture and there was a lot of governance complexity. And so, we really cleaned up that asset governance. And when you think about the two large joint ventures in that part of the system now you have our OBM system which is 65% Williams, 35% [indiscernible] and you have Blue Racer which is now 50% Williams, and 50% first reserve. It's a much cleaner landscape for us to try to work on just creating value and optimizing value.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Tristan Richardson with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
Tristan Richardson:
Appreciate all the comments on the Gulf of Mexico and around the outsized impact in 2020. I think you noted in the slides $49 million of downtime impact, question just on 2021. What a normalized season looks like or sort of just a regular storm season that maybe what you have baked in or generally your assumptions for 2021?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Michael, you want to take that?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. What's normally our team does put some hurricane impacts in there and it's usually between $5 million and $10 million of EBITDA impact based on what a non-hurricane year would look like. So, it's not a huge reduction that we would typically see there on a normal year that we built into our forecast.
John Chandler:
And I think I alluded to a minute ago I think when Christine was asking questions, we - of that $49 million negative impact we had in 2020 versus 2019. We've got all but about $10 million of that reversing itself in 2021. So if we still held $10 million of even maybe a little bit more than normal outsized negatives into 2021 as well because the $49 million was comparison to 2019.
Micheal Dunn:
That's right. Yes.
Tristan Richardson:
That's helpful. Appreciate it, John. And then just thinking about where your commodity exposure lies in the G&P businesses, could you maybe just give us a quick high level of maybe where the most POP lies versus people where we should think about those exposures regionally just at a high level?
John Chandler:
Yes. We have very little to start off with it compared to the way the business used to be structured we just had very little and it's getting harder and harder to see frankly. But the areas that we do have the most exposure are primarily keep all agreements in our Opal area and we do have some exposure in the Gulf Coast as well. So you'll see that listed as Southwest Wyoming when I'd say Opal, I think our EBITDA breakout, I mean it shows you to the Southwest Wyoming. So that's the majority of that exposure. And again, though, we do have some margin in places like our discovery asset in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico. But I think the total and plan on gross margin basis were down to well under 2% now so it's a really, really small amount.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And one of the benefits of Wamsutter, we have a small amount in Wamsutter, but we’ll actually modernize those contracts to be fee-based as part of our cleanup of the Wamsutter basins. So, we’ll further reduce a little bit our existing POL and keep those contracts.
Micheal Dunn:
I might just add so we don't skip over one thing. We do have areas like in the Barnett where our gathering contracts are exposed. They have a floor, but then they're exposed to gas prices above that. Similarly in Laurel Mountain Midstream, we have - those contracts basically are base level, but then they have exposure to gas prices above that. So, we do have some contracts that have direct gas price exposure and the Barnett and Laurel Mountain are the two areas that really have those.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Derek Walker with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Derek Walker:
I know we're over the hour here, so just two quick ones for me. Alan I think in your former remarks you talked about line of sight on the leverage side with potential to have that $1.2 billion target achieved in 2021. Can you just talk about some of the drivers that could get you to that? I know that your guidance is 4.25, but how are thinking about some of the drivers that could get you to that 4.2 in 2021?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, I would say there is really two areas there. One is, obviously, the obvious and when I talked with Christine earlier about some of the upsides drivers for 2021 and our EBITDA, obviously, that's the simple way for us and probably, I would say that most profitable. But as well, I think capital reductions that would come to us associated with the transactions on the upstream as well where we would lay off some of that capital responsibility to third-party. So, those are the two kind of easy ways to get there, I would say. And obviously, the EBITDA upside is one that probably has a clearest line of sight to.
Derek Walker:
Got it, and then maybe just a quick one? Just on the - are you seeing much - I know there’s lot of commentary around kind of the upstream side of things. But are you seeing much difference in the behavior ex-kind of bankruptcies from public E&Ps versus private E&Ps and what areas are you seeing some of those big differences, if any?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I've noticed that a lot of analysts are starting to pick up on that. And clearly, the public markets are just - have been sour about spending on anything. And I think the private markets have been seeing the opportunity and taking advantage of that pullback. We certainly are seeing that Haynesville is the poster child for that for sure where there’s so much private capital that's going to work there. And it's an attractive place because you don't have a lot of the basis risk that you have to manage in the long haul capacity risk that you have to manage coming out of the Marcellus. So, it's an easy place to go in, in a fairly de-risk manner. And that's what's attracting - as Chad mentioned, that's also what's attracting a lot of capital to our opportunity there in the Haynesville. So, that's definitely - the money that can come in and get out pretty quickly by turning a bit. And turning it into cash up against the current - forward strip which is what a lot of the private parties are doing is what we're seeing. So it's a fairly de-risk model and they're just looking around the various basins for opportunities to do that. But clearly in our line of sight, Haynesville is the area that's getting the most attention in that regard.
Operator:
Our next question will be from Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering & Holt. Your line is now open.
Colton Bean:
So, just wanted to follow-up on some of the comments there around volumes. It sounded like for G&P, the guidance assumes something close to maintenance in the Northeast. Is that a fair characterization? And then just any high level comments on what you're looking for in the West would be appreciated?
Alan Armstrong:
Mike, we’ll take that?
Michael Dunn:
Yes, fairly gathering side. We are looking at most likely maintenance-type activities on the gathering side. But on the processing side - it's highly dependent on the producer and the basin in the Northeast just to be clear. There are some upsides and downsides. But on the processing side, we are seeing a large influx of volumes year-over-year that we will continue to enjoy nice margins there. Our processing at Oak Grove is at capacity and we're finishing up our DXB 3 there. It should be online next month. And our fractionation facility as I said earlier, are at capacity level as well. So we're seeing a lot of activity continuing in the West Virginia, Ohio Southwest [indiscernible] area that will drive a lot of volumes to our processing facilities where we see the upside occurring to our 2020 performance in 2021.
Alan Armstrong:
One thing that you'll see in the Northeast is even though our volumes don't look like they're going up that much in the Northeast, Laurel Mountain Midstream, Chevron pullback, EQT is taken that production over. We have an NBC so it really doesn't have a meaningful revenue impact to us, but they - no that volume is declining there. And so, that's muting maybe a little bit of the volume growth you otherwise never seen in Northeast especially around Marcellus South.
Michael Dunn:
And just to be clear there, it’s a little bit confusing sometimes in the Southwest Marcellus in West Virginia area there, because we gather some of that gas and then we spin it off to third-parties to other third-party processors because we've been full. And so once we have that capacity built we get that business back. And so that's not obvious sometimes that we don't process everything we gathered, and we don't gather everything we process. And so, those two numbers don't go hand-in-hand necessarily.
Alan Armstrong:
And the West where we're seeing the least activity in the Eagle Ford which has NBC protection so though you might see some additional volume decline and NBC protected in the Eagle Ford. And we should see activity though increasing in the Haynesville and those gas-directed - the majority of our West beyond Eagle Ford is gas-directed activity and - with a relatively robust gas price. And we should see good activity on the gas side of that.
Michael Dunn:
And I'd say also as it relates to the West, in 2021 you're seeing the back end - not as much production activity in the Haynesville as we've seen now with Chesapeake back recapitalized and new producers in the South Mansfield that we're working with. And on the Wamsutter, the same is happening in the Wamsutter, BP wasn't really active nor with Southland obviously, because they're in bankruptcy. And so, we're not going to see that in 2021, but in 2022 I think you'll see those volumes start to turn back around.
Colton Bean:
And appreciate that detail and just a final one from me. I think you all highlighted a couple of times how you will - be either near or at the long-term leverage target to exit this year. So as you look forward, can you just update us on where you stand on capital allocation whether that be further debt reduction looking at a buyback authorization or supplementing the existing backlog with some renewables investments, appreciate it?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say - that question obviously is something that we've been saying for quite some time - will be coming to us. And I think as we get to this end of this year obviously that will be. But make no mistake about it the first thing and we've been very clear on this is debt reduction - is the first place to go with that. Once we get beyond that, things like investing in our rate base on Transco, on things like the emission reduction projects will be put up against other alternatives for that capital reduction whether that's further debt reduction or share buyback. And those are the things that would be in competition for that further capital allocation as we get into that year. But it's an interesting dilemma, because not very many people. In fact, I don't know if I could describe to you, too many other pipelines that are in the position of being able to invest in the rate base. And for us the cost of capital it just hasn't met that return hurdle internally. So, in the past it really hadn't been thought of as an opportunity. But as we think about the emission reduction project, that's some very sizable capital investment opportunity that will make a decision on that versus other alternatives from a cost of capital standpoint. So, I think that's the best color I can give you on that at this point.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Thank you for taking my questions. One easy one which is OpEx and G&A in 2021 over 2020, up down flattish, just trying to look for a little direction. And then second, can you remind us, what's the expected CapEx for Regional Energy Access and what are the key permitting milestones we need to look for?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Mike, why don’t you take both of those, if you don’t mind?
Michael Dunn:
Yes, on Regional Energy Access, we have publicly stated in our pre-filing it was $760 million a day project. I think by the time we filed here in a few weeks, we'll be at or above that level. And what we’ve said in the past is it's between $800 million and $1 billion of investment. And we're probably at the lower end of that right now based on we’re filing activity looks…
Alan Armstrong:
So yes, John is going to take the first part of your question.
John Chandler:
Yes, on operating cost and I'll drag at these numbers here real quick. But if you look in our analyst package and if you look at the operating cost in each of our segments and you compare 2019 to 2020, you'll see a number of $223 million reduction in operating expense. But I want to be clear on that. 2019 had incremental expenses because we did a voluntary severance program and we're cutting costs. So 2019 costs were elevated, 2020 costs were low because we changed the benefit’s program around with the days off and anyway, resulted in $40 million benefit to 2020 expenses. I’m dragging through all that to say that $223 million reduction and expenses on a normalized adjusted EBITDA basis is only $100 million reduction, $103 million reduction in expenses between 2019 and 2020. And that includes an $11 million increase in property - in operating taxes, add-on taxes. And so, we saved about $114 million between 2019 and 2020. We think about 70% of that will stick going into 2021, so 30% of that will revert. And so, we'll see cost go up by about $30 million just due to operating cost kind of - that’s not retaining all that savings. And then operating taxes probably go up another $20 million to $25 million. So, you're looking at probably $50 million of total expense increases in 2021. So a great job, we're retaining 70% of our cost savings that we got in 2020.
Operator:
So, now I'll turn the call over to Alan Armstrong for closing comments.
Alan Armstrong:
Great well, thank you all very much for joining us today. We really are excited to continue to produce such predictable cash flows from the business and we're really excited about some of the catalysts for growth that really will drive and beyond 2021 and as well give us some upside here for 2021. So, thank you for your interest and stay safe and healthy.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Juvane, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thank you, Cheryl, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler, will speak to this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in the presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. We are pleased to share the results of another strong third quarter. Williams once again exceeded its internal plans and investor expectations and showed just how durable this business can be against several headwinds, including a very active hurricane season in the Gulf. As you know, Louisiana bore the brunt of two significant hurricanes in Laura and Delta. And our operating teams in the area did a great job of staying safe, while minimizing the impact to our operations. As always, I'm impressed, but not surprised by the response effort to the region as Williams volunteers have donated supplies and manned staging areas in critically hit areas and really helped out those in need. Despite the hurricane impact, record Northeast gathering and processing growth allowed us to more than offset the financial impact of those multiple interruptions in the Gulf and produced the 19th consecutive quarter where we met or exceeded Street expectations. Our 2020 results year-to-date illustrate the stability and predictability of our business across a wide range of external factors. Everybody has gotten used to us being able to continue to produce on a normal basis, but this environment has really allowed us to distinguish ourselves in this more difficult market. Additionally, during this busy quarter, Williams announced its commitment and highlighted its ability to help in the reduction of emissions in a right here and right now way by becoming the first U.S. midstream company to set both near-term and long-term emission reduction goals. I'll talk a bit more about our climate goals later. But first, I want to highlight Rex' performance in our Northeast G&P segment, and then I'll turn it over to John to walk through our Q3 results. So looking here on slide 1, we show that our Northeast Gathering and Processing segment handled record volumes in the third quarter of 2020 where our gathering volumes averaged over 9.4 Bcf per day across our operated assets in the Northeast. This was an 8.4% growth versus the 3Q of 2019 comparison and a 7% sequential growth over the second quarter of 2020. Strong growth in the rich gas areas drove even more impressive growth in our processing volumes and our NGL production. And you can see here the processing for the Southwest Marcellus and Utica areas was up over 17%, and NGL production was up nearly 24%. Each of these was a record performance for our Northeast gathering and processing segment. This strong performance is evidence of the attractive position of the Northeast business as gas market fundamentals begin to call on U.S. dry gas supplies. We are the largest gatherer in the most important and prolific gas-producing area, the Appalachian Basin. And within the Appalachian Basin, our dedications include the most attractive acreage operated by resilient producers that continue to demonstrate their ability to continuously improve on their cost structures. You can see this playing out as our Northeast gathering volumes grew faster than the total Northeast supply. So overall, if you looked at the information from point logic, you would see that the Northeast wellhead natural gas production for all of the area, even including outside of Williams, was up by 2.2% on a 3Q 2020 to 3Q 2019 comparison. And ours, as we've shown, was up by 8.4% in gathered volume. So we really are not only in the right basin, but we're also in the right parts of the basin in the Appalachian area. We expect this trend to continue in response to very favorable forward strip pricing for 2021 and a very well-positioned group of customers in both the Marcellus and the Utica. We'll talk more about our G&P business when we get to our investor focus area segment. But for now, let me turn it over to John to highlight our Q3 results.
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. We're going to go to slide 2 here. And once again, we're very pleased with our results this quarter. And as an overall theme, our cost reduction efforts, our new Transco projects brought into service and our incredibly strong results out of our Northeast gathering and processing segment helped to offset some challenging conditions in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico from heightened hurricane activity. You can see the strong performance in our statistics. First, looking at adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, it was down $7 million or 1%. However, this is very misleading, given that we expected and realized a $33 million step down in deferred revenue at our Gulfstar deepwater platform this quarter. In addition, the third quarter of last year included $28 million of incremental EBITDA from the Transco rate case settlement true-up for periods prior to the third quarter of 2019. So if you adjust for these items, our EBITDA was actually up 4% versus the third quarter of 2019, which is more indicative of the very strong quarter we had. And the same thing is playing out in our year-to-date results; our adjusted EBITDA is up 1%. But adjusting for deferred revenue step-downs and other noncash items, our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is actually up similarly at 4%. We'll discuss EBITDA in more depth in a moment. Our adjusted earnings per share for the quarter increased largely due to lower depreciation. But again, just like adjusted EBITDA, would have been up much more strongly, had it not been for the noncash items I just mentioned. Distributable cash flow was down for the quarter due to increased dividends and distributions to our non-controlling interest owners, primarily related to our new Northeast JV, which is consolidated in our operating results and probably more so due to the timing of maintenance CapEx, which was higher for the quarter but down on a year-to-date basis. Our distributable cash flow year-to-date is down slightly, but the 2019 period included an $85 million cash tax refund that we've not benefited from this year. Without that cash tax refund, DCF is also up. As we look towards the end of the year, we still see distributable cash flow performance coming in above the midpoint of our guidance and likely above last year's results. On the capital spending front, our intentional capital discipline continues to drive capital spending down and free cash flow up. And to that point, capital spending for the quarter and year-to-date is about one-half of what it was last year. Of that, maintenance capital year-to-date is about $70 million less, and expansion capital spending is over $900 million less. With expansion capital spending expected to come in the $1 billion to $1.2 billion range for the year, and frankly, it's likely going to come in towards the low end of that range. And looking at our EBITDA and DCF forecast, we still predict that we'll produce excess free cash flow for this year above all dividends and all capital expenditures. This strong cash generation and capital discipline has helped us move towards our goal of improving our leverage metrics. And this quarter, our debt to last 12 months EBITDA is at 4.42 times, but we expect to end the year with that leverage metric being inside our guided goal of 4.4 times. And we expect continued improvement on the leverage metric next year, moving towards our goal of 4.2 times. Now going to slide 3, and looking at adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, let's dig a little deeper into that. Again, Williams performed very well this quarter despite an unusually active hurricane season that negatively impacted our Gulf of Mexico operations. As you'll hear throughout each segment, cost control has been a big benefit this year even after realizing higher bonus accruals this quarter in recognition of our strong performance. As I mentioned a moment ago, before we dive into each segment, we believe it's important to isolate a few unusual things to make the numbers more comparable and reflective of our ongoing performance of the business. We've identified those unusual items on this slide, which are shown on this chart as noncash comparability items, and they total $60 million. They consist primarily of two things. The first is the $33 million reduction in noncash deferred revenue step-downs in our transmission in Gulf of Mexico segment on our Gulf East franchise area. As a reminder, on deferred revenue, we received significant upfront cash payments several years ago from a producer, but did not recognize revenue at that time. We have been amortizing those payments we previously received into income over the last several years, and that amortization has been shrinking. The second item I'd point to is the $28 million rate case trip entry made in the third quarter of 2019 that I described earlier. So, if you adjust for those items, again, EBITDA was actually up over 4%. So, looking at our segments, the Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets without these non-cash items produced results that were $3 million better than the same period last year. New transmission pipeline projects added $14 million in revenues for the quarter, including the Hillabee Phase two project, that came into service in the second quarter of this year and the gateway project that came on into service in the fourth quarter of last year. While we did see lower operating costs during the quarter, they were offset somewhat by increased bonus accruals and higher reinsurance and property taxes. Offsetting the positive revenues was about $15 million of lower Gulf of Mexico profits due to shut-ins, resulting from the heightened hurricane activity. The impact of the shut-ins can be further seen in reduced deepwater gathering volumes, which were down about 15%. Now going to the Northeast G&P segment, it continues to come on strong, producing record results and contributing $53 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 8% in the quarter, and processing volumes were up 17%. These higher volumes drove revenue growth. And of course, we are realizing more revenue per gathered Mcf due to additional revenues earned from processing, transportation and fractionation of that gas and NGLs on the backs of some investments we've made over the last several years in this infrastructure. Equity method investment also drove EBITDA, where we benefited from higher record volumes, due to gathering expansion on that system in late 2019; the Marcellus South system, where we benefited from several new wells coming online over the last year; and to a lesser extent, higher volumes on Laurel Mountain Midstream. Finally, the Northeast also benefited from cost reduction efforts, much of which began last year, as well as from favorable maintenance expense savings. As a final note, adjusted EBITDA per gathered Mcf for our Northeast operating assets, when you include the proportional volumes from our non-operated assets, averaged $0.52 per Mcf in the third quarter of this year, compared to $0.49 per Mcf the same time last year, which is a 6% increase. Now looking at the West, that segment was flat to last year. Overall, revenues in the West were down slightly versus the third quarter of last year, but those decreases were offset by higher commodity margins and reduced expenses. Revenues declined due to lower gathered volumes, which were down about 7%, and were spread amongst many basins, with the biggest impact coming in the Haynesville, Wamsutter and Piceance. Of course, in two of these three basins, we have a customer dealing with bankruptcies and would expect to increase volumes as those producers move out of their bankruptcy. The volume decline, however, was muted somewhat by higher revenues in the Eagle Ford, where we agreed to a new contract with higher rate than an MVC in December of last year. And just as with our other segments, the West experienced lower cost, again, as we keep a relentless focus on efficiency and cost control. Now going to slide 4 and looking at our year-to-date results. They showed growth of 1% in adjusted EBITDA, again, driven by many of the same factors affecting the third quarter growth. The Barnett and Gulfstar noncash deferred revenue step-downs totaled $85 million, while the net impact of commodity price fluctuations on our inventory linefill position created a $9 million noncash reduction in EBITDA this year. So without those noncash comparability items, year-to-date, adjusted EBITDA was up similarly to the quarter and it was up 4%. Again, looking at segments, our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico segment without those noncash items is delivering $16 million in growth, with an uplift from expansion projects and expense reductions being offset somewhat by lower Gulf of Mexico volumes and the impact that it's had on commodity margins. In the Gulf of Mexico, the total impact of shut-ins from COVID, hurricanes and the price collapse earlier this year has been $38 million. The Northeast is a huge part of our growth this year, adding $165 million in additional EBITDA over last year, with overall volumes up 7% and incremental revenues being realized from processing, transportation and fractionation of gas and NGLs, while at the same time, we've been reducing costs. And finally, the West is off by about $46 million versus last year, largely because of the Barnett, MVC cash payments that ended last year and the four points cost of service true-up payment that we received last year. Otherwise, in the West, gathered volumes were down about 3%, but were offset largely by reduced costs and increased revenues in the Eagle Ford due to the renegotiated contract in December of last year. Again, all in all, despite a tough market and a tough hurricane season, we've had a really good year on the back of cost reductions, Northeast performance and new pipeline projects coming into service on Transco. I'll now turn the call back over to Alan to discuss some of the key investor focus areas. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, John, and just starting here again on Slide 5. We have a listing of what we believe are key areas of focus for our investors. And so first, I'll discuss our expectations for the 2021 financial performance. We expect to provide our 2021 financial guidance during our 4Q earnings release in February but we offer the following insights to what we expect for 2021 as follows. First, continued production of reliable and highly predictable cash flow with modest growth and improving returns; second, we expect to again generate discretionary free cash flow comfortably covering both our dividend and our growth CapEx; and third, we expect our adjusted EBITDA to continue showing growth driven by the following
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hello. Good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
I just want to start off on capital allocation. I know you touched on it a bit in your prepared remarks there. But just wondering if you had any more clarity on where 2021 CapEx might land given how project timing could potentially move around a bit and how this level of CapEx could approach -- could impact your approach to deleveraging and any potential buybacks. Trying to get a feel for how that interplays within 2021 itself.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question, Jeremy. Obviously, we haven't laid out that guidance firmly yet, but we do have a pretty good idea. I think one of the things that's helping on that end is these projects are being finished earlier than we expected. So that's a real positive. And obviously, because our capital has come down this year, a lot of that is cost reduction as well. So I would just say, we are seeing really positive signs on the cost as we've gone out for bid. The construction market is a little bit slow right now. And as a result of that, the bids that we've been seeing coming in for our projects are coming in below our budget. So I would say a little too early to call that. But right now, I think we're feeling pretty good about being able to manage to that -- to a capital budget that is somewhere in the same range as what we saw this year. So I don't know, Micheal, if you have anything to add to that on the capital.
Micheal Dunn:
I would just say, and I will talk about in the opening remarks, we will cover all of our capital and dividend next year and be free cash flow positive in regard to our overall company performance. As Alan said, we're seeing great bids from our contractors. Our teams are doing an incredible job executing our projects and achieving underbudget performance on all of our major projects this year. And we have high expectations to continue that next year with where the market is in regard to construction activity.
Jeremy Tonet:
That's very helpful. And I know you have a number of comments you provided on renewable energy there. And you talked about RNG interconnections and solar installations. Just trying to dig in a little bit more there, if you could expand on how big the CapEx dollar opportunity set for you could be on the renewables front, I figure it's bigger than a bread basket, but trying to figure out how big that is.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Let me have Chad Zamarin, who is leading that -- sorry, that emerging opportunities group. Chad?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. And in that space, it's still early days, but we -- I think we announced today that we've just connected our sixth RNG project. We see a pretty good pipeline of opportunities in that space. I'd say in the near term, still modest capital investment over the next couple of years, probably less than $100 million in RNG projects. On the solar front, we have approved 12 projects that have advanced through what we would call our Gate one capital allocation process. Those projects aren't yet to full investment decision, but those projects constitute around $200 million to $300 million of investment in solar installations. And so those projects will continue to move through our process over the next several months. And I would just say, I mean we spent a lot of time building up talent and capabilities. And I think we view ourselves as an energy infrastructure company. And we are very focused on, as you can also see, being a part of the clean and energy solutions for our country and for the rest of the world. And we see natural gas is really the most impactful energy source in that regard. But we're very committed to making sure our infrastructure and capabilities are part of any solution with respect to kind of the future of clean energy. So we've also stood up a team that is now focused on hydrogen and other carbon capture technologies. But I'd say that's very early days, and will probably not be a lot of capital investment in the very near term, but we'll continue to look to be a part of the solution in those areas as well.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. I’ll stop there. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish:
Thanks. Good morning. Your partner on Overland Pass so that they plan to move their volumes onto their wholly owned pipeline. Just wondering if you would still get paid if they move volumes. And then if not, what's kind of the plan there to try and backfill those volumes.
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning. This is Micheal. I'll take that. In regard to our partner on Overland Pass Pipeline, we've anticipated the movement of those volumes for some time now with their construction of their pipeline from the Bakken. And they've taken the volumes, but continue to pay us this year in partnership with our agreement that we've had in place with them. And so this has been an expectation that we've had. We've built this into our plans for next year, but we've also got our Rocky Mountain Midstream entity in Colorado that we do anticipate having additional volumes coming from that entity. And that's where we've anticipated those volumes coming in and backfilling some of the volumes that are leaving us from our partner on the OPPL pipeline.
Praneeth Satish:
Okay. Great. And then just on the renewables front, I think, so far, most of -- or all of your investments tied to RNG have been consisted of building out laterals. What's the appetite to maybe push further upstream and invest in the actual facilities and landfills or dairy farms that capture and process the methane?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say we're going to invest where we think we have the biggest competitive advantage and can generate the highest returns. And some of those projects that are backed by quite a few tax credits and subsidies generally have quite a bit of financing and fairly low returns on them. So we're going to focus on the part of those investments where we can make a return that competes within our capital allocation front. So as I'm sure everyone is aware, the investment and the returns in that space have narrowed considerably with all the popularity around that. So we're going to stick to the areas where we have really strong competitive advantage to create better returns.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. And I would just add, our footprint does point us towards areas of opportunities. I would just say, an RNG project, a lot of the infrastructure required for bringing RNG to market is the kind of infrastructure that we're very familiar with. It's primarily trading and processing of natural gas and gas by-products. It's relatively small scale. But again, I think to Alan's point, we're very capable of investing further upstream into those facilities but we're going to make sure we focus on where those returns would be most attractive.
John Chandler:
This is John Chandler. The last thing I'd say is, we remain a noncash taxpayer at least through 2024 in our projections. And so therefore, tax credits, it's tough for us to make value of that. So we've got to find partners to co-invest and take advantage of those tax credits in many cases. So some of the things that make the returns more attractive upstream really don't -- aren't that -- are as valuable to us.
Praneeth Satish:
That’s helpful. I will stop there. Thanks.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Shneur Gershuni from UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi good morning everyone and Alan congrats on the new role. Just to start off here a little bit here. You sort of intimated in your prepared remarks that you expect EBITDA to be above higher next year versus this year. I was wondering if you can walk us through the pluses and minuses direction yet. Obviously, without giving a specific number as to the support of that view, are you seeing some more activity potentially in the Haynesville? Is that offsetting the earlier question about the Overland Pass volume loss? Just wondering if you can just sort of give us the ledger of pluses and minuses as to, directionally, what underpins the expectations for EBITDA to be higher next year versus this year?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sure, Shneur. And I'll just kind of go back through the notes that I laid out there. First of all, as I mentioned, the gas supply and demand situation is turning out to be a very favorable position for gas-focused basins. Obviously, with associated gas continuing decline and demand hanging in there and starting to grow again. We really feel good about the way we're positioned within our gathering and processing basins. Obviously, those lower-cost basins are best positioned for that. But if you really look at how that's going to get balanced, it's hard for the market to balance itself without drawing on the basins that we serve, and serve in -- with some concentration. Secondly, the transmission projects like Southeastern Trail and early in-service for Leidy South will drive growth as well in 2021. And then, of course, one of the things that we normally have had some downward pressure like we overcame this year from some of the non-cash items, that John talked about, and so we're not having to overcome some of those headwinds this year. And then finally, of course, the $38 million impact in deepwater Gulf of Mexico this year, won't be there. And we've had a number of tie-ins this year in the Gulf of Mexico that will produce higher revenues next year. So, those are some of the primary drivers, but I would just say, we're feeling really good about the way we're seeing volumes in the Northeast right now. And if we didn't see anything, but volumes stay flat from where they are here in the fourth quarter through 2021, we would see a really nice growth in terms of our earnings and EBITDA in the Northeast. So hard to say that we won't see some growth somewhere, because somehow the market is going to have to balance itself, and we certainly are seeing a lot of producers making plans for that. But we're -- it's really early to call a whole lot of growth there, and we have pretty modest growth built in. But very modest growth with keeping our costs relatively flat, really, is pretty powerful for us and our EBITDA growth. So I mean I don't want to get people out ahead of where we are. I certainly mentioned that our growth would be modest. But I would just say, there's just a number of things that make -- that give us quite a bit of confidence and not really anything all that exciting happening across our business to drive growth next year.
Shneur Gershuni:
So that makes perfect sense and really do appreciate that color. And maybe as a follow-up question, in the prepared remarks, you sort of talked about being free cash flow positive after dividends next year. Buybacks is one of the arrows in the quiver, and it's certainly becoming a -- all the ranges of late with everybody announcing authorizations. Just wondering, is -- how is the Board thinking about approaching it? Do you have to actually hit the leverage target or exceed the target before you authorize and start buying back stock, or given that you're already on a trajectory, you're close, that it's something that you can start sprinkling in sooner than actually hitting the target? Just kind of wondering your thoughts around the topic?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah. No, I would just say that this is a very deliberate and disciplined Board, and we've been very clear about this goal. And I don't think there's anything that I can foresee right now anyway that would waiver. Obviously, if we saw a stock price collapse or something like that, that might change that mind and be opportunistic. But I would just say, we've been pretty clear, pretty disciplined. And I see us continuing to push forward on that goal as a top priority. So I really don't see much. And if we did do buybacks, it would be a sprinkling in. And while it might be popular, I would just tell you that we're going to focus on what we think fundamental value is. And right now, we think that fundamental value is getting our debt down to those targets and gaining the credit rating across all three agencies.
Shneur Gershuni:
Perfect. Thank you very much, and that does it for me, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein. Your line is open.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Good morning. In an aggressive renewables adoption scenario where utilities gas demand goes down dramatically, but utilities still need gas availability to meet peak demand, how would you see contract structures on gas pipelines changing, if at all? And are there currently examples on your pipelines of very high MVCs compared to usage and did they require different types of contracts?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah. Jean Ann, I would just say we haven't seen anything resembling that at all in our markets. The capacity that we have is highly valued. And the last time we had any capacity come up available that got turned back, the only thing that we could distinguish the bid on was on term and that -- and this was last year. And the term was 84 years, was a successful bid on that. So we're not really seeing any need to discount or would see a need to provide any discount in our markets, because our rates are so low compared to what the avoided cost or the alternatives are. So we really don't see. Obviously, we're always working with our customers to provide the very best service. But I think from a pricing standpoint, there's just not any pressure on the pricing within our -- I mean, I always say that's the good news and the bad news about our regulated pipeline. The bad news is the rate's capped. And the rate, we can't expand that rate. But the good news is, that's really hard to compete with in those markets. And so, really don't see it. But I would just tell you, we're not -- despite the talk on this issue, we are not seeing the utilization come down on our system on the gas-fired generation, despite a lot of renewables being interjected into the market. And of course, as long as we still have the high degree of coal-fired generation in a lot of our markets, we're going to continue to see expansions of capacity demand for our services. So Micheal, I don't know if you'd add anything to that.
Micheal Dunn:
No, I think you were right on there, Alan. I would say that, based on the demand that we're continuing to see on the Transco and other transmission pipelines we have, we don't anticipate having to negotiate any kind of peaking agreements. Now if there's an opportunity to provide a peaking service that we can charge a rate for, that is desirable for us, then we'll absolutely pursue that. But at this point in time, our customers are continuing to see demand for long-term year-round contracts, and that's what we'll continue to pursue.
John Chandler:
I think an interesting derivation of that question is, when are the utilities going to start charging the independent renewables developers a backup charge for the power that they're backing up, the interruption -- interruptible power coming from the renewables resource. And that's not happening today.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Yes. No, that's really helpful. And then kind of 10-plus years from now, your answer is so extremely helpful and valid. Thank you. And then is it possible to separate out how much of this year's growth CapEx went to well connects, even just roughly?
John Chandler:
Well, I can tell you, in total, from a capital spending standpoint, the Northeast total capital spend for this year is probably going to be a little bit south to $300 million. In the West, it's less than $100 million. So when you -- and that's a combination of maintenance and expansion capital spending. And embedded within that is some processing work. So I don't want to say that's all well connect capital, but it's fairly insignificant now.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Great. John, that’s helpful. Thank you so much.
Alan Armstrong:
Jean Ann, it's got to be -- that's got to be a pretty difficult thing in areas like the Northeast, PA, where we're building big pipelines into these well pads and so you might call that a well connect, but it's a 20-inch pipeline a lot of times, sometimes even larger. Because the producers are effectively -- by drilling these laterals out of these single locations, they effectively are providing what used to be a well connect by bringing that all into one location there for us. And so what we see actually -- rather than us having to go connect those individual wells, we're seeing the producers just continue to drill out those pads over time and keep the volumes full on those fairly large lines that we've built to them. So it's gotten really fuzzy, particularly in the Northeast with these very large volume pads. It's gotten pretty fuzzy to think about -- of something being well connect. A lot of these pads are delivering more gas than a single gathering system does in a lot of parts of the country. So it's really gotten kind of fuzzy on that front. But well connects in the West are probably a place that's a little easier to keep track of in that regard. And as John mentioned, we spent less than $100 million this year in the West.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
That’s really helpful. Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Christine Cho from Barclays. Your line is open.
Christine Cho:
Good morning. Maybe, if I can ask the 2021 CapEx question a little differently. And I understand this can change in the next couple of months, but I can think of well connects or Northeast and Haynesville, maybe a project on Transco materializing from the cancellation of ACP, some small residual spending on Leidy South and Southeastern Trail and maybe some additional Gulf of Mexico tiebacks. Would you say those are the main pieces of the CapEx program next year as it stands right now?
Alan Armstrong:
The only thing I might add to that, Christine, I'm going to -- Micheal's probably got a little crisper list in his head. But the one thing that is notably missing from your list there would be the build-out for the well prospect in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. And so that's a pretty sizable project. And so that's probably -- and remember, that is reimbursable if they were to cancel that for some reason, but that's getting pretty far along for anybody to think about canceling at this point. So Micheal, I don't know if...
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. I mean, that was the one that was sticking out for me. We ordered the pipe for that project based on the reimbursable agreement that we have with the producer customers there, and that's a pretty substantial order, in order for us to get that pipe on time for the project. And Regional Energy Access will be another one that will ramp up next year as well as, obviously, the Leidy South construction, which we have full notes to proceed now on Leidy South for our restoration construction and so those are underway. That's the gating item on that project, and we'll start construction on our pipelines for Leidy South in January. Just a pretty small component of that project with some Brownfield moves there. The compressor stations are really the bulk of the work there on Leidy South.
John Chandler:
And maybe just one other thing, and it's not sizable, but we may need to do a little bit of processing work in the Northeast expansion as we're filling the systems up.
Christine Cho:
Got it.
Micheal Dunn:
A point as well, we've -- our Oak Grove processing complex, we actually stopped construction on TXP3 there and we've ramped that back up now. So we had a lull there of about six or eight months where we had idled that construction work. And now we're above capacity there on the processing complex, and we've accelerated that work now, and we anticipate that third train at Oak Grove being online sometime in the first quarter of '21.
Christine Cho :
Got it. And just a clarification on the Regional Energy Access. I don't think that project came online until like '23. So is there really going to be that much spending on that next year?
Micheal Dunn:
Well, there won't be Christine. You're right. That's a 2023 in-service, but it is another component of our Transco expansion opportunities, and it will initiate some uptick in spending next year. But we've been pretty careful about spending too much on those projects until we have permits in hand. So you're right, that won't accelerate really until 2022 and 2023.
Christine Cho :
Got it. And then as a follow-up, Alan, you mentioned the different ways to drive additional value, and you mentioned debt pay down, stock buybacks and investing in projects. Assuming you get to the 4.2 times leverage and are comfortably in BBB flat territory, what return thresholds would any transfer of projects need to clear in order for it to be a better use of capital than buybacks at this juncture?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. That's a good question. I think, obviously, that's going to determine how we see the stock market and how much value we think there is to investor for additional debt reduction. Obviously, that's something that there's not a bright line on and we'll have to use our own best judgment around how much value we think there would be to the shareholder through further debt reduction. So that's the answer to that part of the question. And then the second piece is what stock price is going to be at that point in time, and that will set effectively what the return threshold would have to be for those incremental projects. And I just tell you, there's all kinds of places that make good and very profit rate-based investment on the Transco systems in terms of modernization of the systems and emission reduction opportunities. And it really is just going to depend how that those return look. And obviously, we've been in the process of negotiating what that would look like in terms of emission reduction projects. And until we know what that return would be and we know what the value, we would assess at that point in time, the debt reduction and stock price that will determine that. But there's really -- the good news is we don't have to predetermine that. We'll see what the markets look like when we get to that point at the end of '21. And I'm very confident in our Board's ability to make a great decision for the benefit of the shareholder when we get to that point.
Christine Cho :
Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Gabe Moreen from Mizuho. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Gabe Moreen:
Hey, guys. I had a two-pronged question on the Northeast. There's been some customer consolidation, I think, in Appalachia. Wondering if there's any impacts or opportunities from that. And then also, assuming the forward curve holds or does even better from here, would there be any significant CapEx increases if your customers decide to go beyond, let's call it, maintenance to modest growth mode?
Alan Armstrong:
Mike.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, I would say, EQT coming in and buying into the assets in Appalachia that we are a partnership with Chevron on there is only a positive for us. EQT is a great operator. They're certainly getting their cost under control on their drilling and their completions and really doing an admirable job there. We have the opportunity to bring additional volumes in there with not a lot of capital deployment in regard to possibly EQT deploying more money there, be able to drill bit. So I think that's just a great opportunity and upside for us there with Laurel Mountain Midstream. And there'll be a partner with us on the midstream assets there with that acquisition, owning 31% of that entity with us. And so we're looking forward to working that relationship that we've already built with them even more so.
Gabe Moreen:
Great. And then as a follow-up, clearly, there's been a lot of consolidation on the upstream side of things. In the past, you talked about asset sales, done a lot of portfolio shaping yourself. Those discussions still ongoing? Do you think those perhaps happen in 2021? Just curious for your thoughts there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, that's a good question. We're certainly -- we'll continue to pursue that. I think we do believe that the cash flows that our West G&P asset and the free cash flow, the tremendous amount of free cash flow they generate is very valuable. And we think the predictability that we've seen this year, along with the way that we've been able to manage through the bankruptcy concerns around these assets, we think that really is going to position this well for -- having them better valued in 2021. And what exactly path that takes is TBD. But we certainly are continuing to look for opportunities to make sure that those are more fairly valued within our stock price, one way or the other. So yes, we're still working on it. And I think some of the clouds that existed over that are certainly lifting pretty rapidly, with the way some of the concerns -- particularly around the Chesapeake bankruptcy and the way those concerns have really eroded as we haven't been listed as any rejection and very confident in our ability to preserve the value in our contracts there.
Gabe Moreen:
Great. Thanks, Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Alex Kania from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Alex Kania:
Thanks. Just a question, maybe to put it a bad pun about the elephant in the room, I guess, the – talk from today. But just are there any elections or statewide races that you're particularly focused on, or any kind of latest comments or thoughts you might have just in terms of maybe any shift in energy policy in the U.S.-based on a Biden or kind of a Trump reelection?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. As I mentioned in my opening comments, I think we're -- we feel like that natural gas in a sober, less-polarized moment is going to be a really important tool to continue to utilize renewables at a cost-effective -- in a cost-effective manner and to continue to decarbonize energy use here in both the U.S. and around the world for that matter. And we think it's going to be a powerful tool. And so the U.S. is -- the more serious we get about decarbonization, the better it is for our business. And so if the focus is just around eliminating fossil fuels, that's a different story. But if we really get serious about decarbonization, we think our business is extremely well-positioned in that environment. Secondly, I would say, on a more tactical level, I think probably one of the higher near-term probabilities, if there was a Biden administration win would be the -- a corporate tax raise. And actually, that works out to be a positive for us within our regulated assets, because that would allow us to raise the rates back on Northwest pipeline that we had to lower when the corporate tax rate was lower. We do have a rider within those -- within those rates. And as well on Transco, we would -- we had to lower -- or we had to accept an impact to our rate case this last time around because of the lower corporate tax rate, and we would get those back. Now of course, we're not paying those cash taxes, but the way the rate case process actually works, and we get to recover for whatever that corporate tax rate is. So in the near term, we would see -- probably one of the few energy companies that would see kind of a near-term positive coming out of that. And longer-term, we think if we really are constructive and really get serious about going after decarbonization, we think we can play a very important role in that process.
Alex Kania:
Great. Thanks very much.
Danilo Juvane:
Cheryl, we got time for one more question. Cheryl?
Operator:
And our next question comes from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering, as a follow-up to the hydrogen conversation, what types of projects would you be looking at? And what's the timing on those specific projects? So not the timing in terms of when you'd start, but once you started, what kind of timing would -- when those projects take to be -- to go from first investment to in-service?
Alan Armstrong :
Yeah, Travis. Hey, thank you very much for the question, and thanks for joining us this morning. I would just say, first of all, it is long-dated. So we're looking at a number of opportunities, but whatever we do, we're going to be looking to do it in a serious manner. And the scale that we can bring to hydrogen is probably second to none in terms of the utilization. And I think it's important to -- when you think about hydrogen, to the degree that we're burning hydrogen in place of another carbon-based fuel, we do get emissions reduction. And that doesn't make any difference whether it's blended in with the natural gas or if it's separated, the emission reduction opportunity is exactly the same. And so our ability to blend in hydrogen into the existing systems is a really powerful tool here in accelerating the use of hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions. And so our ability to take excess renewable power in markets and both be able to help with the transmission of that energy via tram and via converting the excess renewables power, which I think most people would agree that there's going to be a good chance that we're over-investing in renewables in certain pockets relative to the ability for that generated power to meet demand. So there will be a need to transport that as well as there'll be a need to store that. And if you think about the way our systems are set up, once you've converted that excess power generation, once you've converted that into hydrogen, now we've got the already systems in place, the ability to both transport and store that with the existing systems without incremental capital investment. And we think that's going to be really powerful as we emerge into that. Secondly, I would say, in markets where there is a really big push on reducing emissions and starting to accelerate the use of hydrogen, we're extremely well positioned with our systems in those areas as well to be able to help utilize carbon -- or hydrogen, both as a technical tool and a political tool for the permitting of our assets. And so we're really excited about the role we can play in that. And we can play it in a way that's not just a novelty and not just a pilot project, but one that truly gets us on the road towards utilizing hydrogen more capably and without waiting on long system development and long infrastructure developments in the market. So, that's how we intend right now to go after it. And we'll certainly be looking for opportunities along those lines.
Travis Miller:
That's great. I appreciate that. And then, just a real quick follow-up to the capital allocation discussion. What's your thought around if the stock price stays here and the returns -- dividend stays up above 8% or so. What's your thought around foregoing perhaps a dividend increase and instead directing that capital back into some of the options you've talked about, stock buybacks or incremental investment? Just thinking about the dividend growth element of that situation.
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah. I think, as we've mentioned before, we intend to keep our dividend growth in line with our cash flow growth. And we think the predictability and the reliability of continuing to do what we say we're going to do is valuable. And we certainly have the capabilities to do that. Ultimately, that's a Board decision in terms of that. But I would say from a policy standpoint in the company, we continue to expect to match that up with our cash flow growth and free cash flow growth. So it's a great question. I would just say that's a Board-level decision. But as we sit here today, we would expect to continue to grow it alongside the degree of cash flow growth that we've got in the business right now, which obviously is modest, and we've talked about that. So that's the kind of the expectation I think should be on.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Appreciate that.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Danilo Juvane:
Cheryl, we're ready to wrap-up the call, please.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes our Q&A for today. I'll turn the call back to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you, Cheryl. Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us. We really are excited to be able to prove out the way our business is continuing to stand up in -- with a lot of external headwinds, and looking forward to continuing to see these predictable cash flows continue to grow. And I really appreciate all the interest in the company, and the great questions today. So have a nice day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Brett Krieg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Brett Krieg:
Thanks, Lindsey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Chandler, will speak to this morning. Also, joining us on the call today are Micheal Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer; Lane Wilson, our General Counsel; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you will find the disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thanks, Brett, and thank you for all for joining us today. We’re proud to share the results of the strong second quarter that really is a testament to the stability and predictability of our business. As John will share in more detail, Williams exceeded its internal plans and also expectations by the Street and showed just how durable this business can be against a number of headwinds, including shut-ins in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico for a variety of reasons, including a COVID breakout on one of the platform – larger platforms that serves us, Tropical Storm Cristobal and a variety of price-related shut-ins that expanded beyond the Gulf of Mexico to places like the Eagle Ford and the condensate production in the Marcellus. So lots of headwinds for the quarter. But really, the variety that we have and the durability of our business really shown through. It’s not been an easy environment for most companies to navigate, and a lot of people are likely asking you to look past this quarter and focus on the remainder of the year. But for Williams, it is quite the contrary. We want to focus on this quarter’s performance, because Q2 was a real opportunity for us to demonstrate the stability of our business and the long-term benefit of a strategy that has been built on the sound fundamentals of low-cost, clean natural gas. So let me turn it over to John to walk through our results, and then I’ll share some thoughts on the overall natural gas market and compare Williams volumes up against the broader market stats, and then I’ll hit on some of the key investor topics before we get to Q&A. So, John?
John Chandler:
Thanks, Alan. We’ll talk to Slide 1 here for a moment. We are obviously very pleased, and frankly, we’re not surprised with the results this quarter. As Alan mentioned, while the energy industry faced a very difficult environment over the last quarter, our volumes and earnings really shine through, and you can see this in our statistics for the quarter. Cash flow from operations improved by 7% year-over-year. And while adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA looks flat to last year, realize that there are a few unusual items that cloud the comparability, and namely, those relate to the reductions in deferred revenues and the impact of some temporary shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico. And those two negative items were offset somewhat by the benefit of NGL prices on our inventory in the West. If you exclude these items, our adjusted EBITDA actually was up over 3%. We will discuss EBITDA variances more in a moment. Distributable cash flow was down for the quarter. But importantly, in the second quarter of 2019, it benefited from an $85 million alternative minimum tax refund. We expect a similar refund this year, but that will come later this year. Factoring this out, distributable cash flow also increased $15 million, or about 2%, reflective of the EBITDA increase we saw this quarter. The strong distributable cash flow generated very solid dividend average of 1.64 times, showing that our dividend is very safe. If you expand that for the full-year, distributable cash flow and coverage are on track to achieve the midpoint of our original guidance range, even with our guidance of EBITDA being in the lower-half of our guidance range. This is because of the lower-than-expected level of maintenance capital spending this year versus our original plan, and due to the benefit of tax refund we expect to receive in the second-half of this year. Intentional capital discipline and the shifting of some project spending continues to drive capital spending down, and as a result, our free cash flow up. And to that point, expansion capital spending for the quarter and year-to-date is about one half of what it was last year. With expansion capital spending now expected to come in the $1 billion to $1.2 billion range and looking at our EBITDA and distributable cash flow forecast, we still predict that we’ll produce excess free cash flow this year above all dividends and capital expenditures. The strong cash generation and capital discipline has helped deliver on our goals to improve our leverage metrics. Our net debt divided by our last 12 months EBITDA produces a ratio of 4.31 times and reflects a nice improvement over the metric from the same time last year. And finally, while not on this page, we did end this quarter with $1.1 billion in cash, of which $600 million will be used to retire debt that matures in November. This cash, along with our untapped $4.5 billion revolver, provides significant liquidity to the company. Now, let’s go to Page 2, which is our adjusted EBITDA waterfalls. And let’s dig in a little bit deeper about the variances of our EBITDA results for the quarter. Again, Williams performed very well despite a pretty tough energy market. As I mentioned a moment ago, we believe it’s important to isolate a few unusual things to make the numbers more comparable and reflective of the ongoing performance of the business. We’ve identified those unusual items, which are shown on this chart as comparability item and they totaled $42 million. And they consist of three things. The first is a $32 million reduction in EBITDA tied to non-cash deferred revenue step down in the West around our Barnett Shale franchise area and in the Gulf of Mexico around our Gulf East franchise area. As a reminder, on deferred revenue, we received significant upfront cash payments several years ago, but did not recognize revenue at time. We have been amortizing those payments that we received into income over the last several years. And that amortization has been shrinking year-over-year. The second unusual item is that related to our Deepwater Gulf of Mexico shut-ins that occurred during the quarter, and they had a negative $24 million impact to our results. These shut-ins were due to customer planned maintenance, which was significantly extended because of a COVID outbreak on a platform of one of our producers. It was also impacted due to Tropical Storm Cristobal. And then finally, it was impacted due to some price-related shut-ins that occurred during the second quarter. The third unusual item that benefit – is the benefit of the rebound of the NGL prices that had a positive impact on our inventory value this quarter. You may recall in the first quarter, we highlighted reduced commodity profits due to what was a quick move down in NGL prices, causing a non-cash write-down of operational inventory and accounting losses on inventory sales in the first quarter. That turned around this quarter, driving a $14 million improvement in marketing results, partially recapturing some of the loss we noted in the first quarter. It’s important to note that this is not us building inventory for speculative purposes, it’s just our operational inventory, primarily linefill. It’s also important to note that when you look at our West results, understand that the first quarter commodity results were understated because of this item and the second quarter results were overstated. So this is not really a meaningful variance for commodities year-to-date in comparison to last year. We called out each of these three items, because, again, we feel it’s important to note their impact on the current period. And it allows – by separating those items, it allows for a better understanding of the ongoing performances of our business. With that out of the way, our Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets produced results that were $28 million better than the same period last year. A big portion of this increase came from new projects put into service on Transco, including Rivervale South and Gateway projects, that were brought into service late last year and the Hillabee Phase II project, which is brought into service this quarter. In addition, this quarter benefited from Transco’s rate case settlement, which we did not reach settlement terms until the third quarter of last year. And finally, this quarter benefited from lower costs, both savings initiatives started last year and additional efforts we’re making this year. While the Gulf of Mexico was not a contributor to the growth in EBITDA this quarter, volumes and revenues have already rebounded from the shut-in issues experienced during the quarter. And as of July 1, all affected production is back online. Now moving to the Northeast segment, it continues to come on strong, contributing $44 million of additional EBITDA this quarter. Collectively, total Northeast gathering volumes grew 7% in the quarter and processing volumes were up 17%. These higher volumes drove revenue growth and, of course, we are realizing more revenues per gathered Mcf due to additional revenues earned from processing, transportation and fractionation of gas and NGLs. Equity method investments also drove EBITDA growth, where we benefited from higher Bradford volumes due to a gathering expansion of that system in late 2019. Higher volumes from our Laurel Mountain Midstream joint venture, where volumes reached their highest peak in over three years in June; and our Marcellus South system, where we benefited from several new wells coming online during the quarter. Finally, the Northeast also benefited from cost reduction efforts, much of which began last year, as well as some favorable maintenance expense savings. As a final note in the Northeast, our adjusted EBITDA per gathered Mcf for our Northeast operated assets, when you include a proportion of items for non-operated assets is now $0.52 per Mcf in the second quarter of 2020, compared to $0.48 per Mcf this same time last year, that’s an 8% increase. Now moving to the West. That segment declined $32 million that was largely – that reduction was largely the result of special revenues realizable last year that were not repeated this year. When looking at the ongoing health of the West segment, it’s really important to dig into the details of these unusual items. Those special revenue items in the second quarter of 2019 that I mentioned were the MVC payments in the Barnett Shale that ended in June of last year and the final cost of service contract true-up in the Mid-Continent, which benefited the second quarter of last year. And, of course, neither of those were repeated this year. Beyond these items, gathering revenues were down, but were offset somewhat by lower cost. Combined gathering volumes for the West declined by 1% for the quarter. However, this was heavily influenced by some shut-in volumes in May in the Eagle Ford. If you exclude the Eagle Ford franchise area, volumes on all of our other systems collectively were up 2%. Now, as it relates to Eagle Ford basin, our gathering agreement there is protected by a minimum volume commitment. And during the quarter, even though volumes were less than the Eagle Ford, we actually realized increased revenues from the minimum volume commitment. Finally, lower costs also benefit this segment as we keep a relentless focus on efficiency and control. One other odd thing you may note in our statistics on the NGL and crude oil transportation line is a meaningful drop in volume, which comes from our Overland Pass Pipeline. This decline did not have an impact on our EBITDA, given that a shipper on the pipeline agreed to pay us a fee and keep us hold on revenues in lieu of shipping dedicated volumes on that line. Now moving to Slide 3, our year-to-date results. You can see that year-to-date results showed growth of nearly 2% in adjusted EBITDA, driven by many of the same factors affecting the second quarter growth. Barnett and Gulfstar non-cash deferred revenue step down accreted a $53 million reduction in EBITDA year-over-year, deepwater shut-ins that we just talked about in the second quarter accreted a negative $21 million reduction in EBITDA, and the net impact of commodity price fluctuations on the first and second quarter collectively accreted a negative $10 million headwind. So if you take those comparability items out of the mix, year-to-date adjusted EBITDA actually results in a 5% increase. The West is off for many of the same reasons we described in the second quarter. The Northeast is a huge part of the growth year-to-date, adding $112 million in EBITDA this year over last year, with overall volumes up 6% and incremental revenues being realized from processing, transportation and fractionation of gas and NGLs. And the Transmission & Gulf of Mexico assets are delivering growth as well with an uplift from expansion projects, the rate case settlement and expense reductions, and those positives are offset somewhat by some – by lower Gulf of Mexico profits. Again, all in all, despite a tough market, we’re off to a really good start for the year. I’ll now turn the call back over to Alan to review some of the key supply and demand fundamentals. Alan?
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thanks, John. And now, let’s look at the fundamentals that continue to support our business here on Slide 4. As we’ve consistently stated, our strategy depends on natural gas demand. And many people assume that natural gas demand would be greatly diminished by COVID-19 and a stalled economy. Fortunately, we have not seen that play out at all. In fact, natural gas demand has continued to grow, both broadly across the market and on our systems, in particular. Overall, Lower-48 demand was up 2% from the second quarter of 2019. In fact, the only segment that did not grow was industrial load. And even industrial load was only down slightly about 0.6% and most of that was really early in the 2Q. So we’ve actually seen that rebound back up normal levels. But really at that level, you pretty well call that flat. On the power gen side, loads remain strong with 2Q 2020 tracking 3% higher than the 2019 2Q levels. And the early numbers for the month of July here look like this healthy trend is continuing into the third quarter. This is especially impressive if you consider that over the last 18 months, over 600 projects, representing an additional 20 gigawatts of renewable power generation capacity have been installed in the U.S. And the U.S. continues to show how powerful the combination of wind, solar and gas-fired generation can be when we’re up against meeting the dual challenge of providing low-cost and reliable energy, while at the same time lowering greenhouse gas emissions. So there’s a lot of conflict, a lot of discussion, a lot of political bent that goes into this issue. But at the end of the day, the U.S. is really doing a nice job of combining the benefits of renewable power with gas-fired generation. And we continue to see that show up in the numbers on a fact basis, despite a lot of the media and political bantering that goes around this issue. We really are seeing positive improvement here in the U.S. on both emissions and continuing to provide low-cost power here in the U.S. So we really got a lot of positive things on that front and we expect that to continue. On the residential and commercial side, demand was actually up 5%. And so I think that surprised a lot of people in the quarter as well. And even the export market comprised, primarily of LNG shipping in Mexico pipeline exports was up 11% on a 2Q to 2Q basis. Of course, LNG exports have diminished significantly from the first part of the year, but there are positive signs emerging and the number of cargo cancellations have begun to diminish as you get into looking at the third quarter lifts, and particularly in September now. The Mexico pipeline exports have been on the rise and are expected to continue, as pipeline infrastructure that’s reaching further down into Mexico are now complete and will soon begin to utilize supplies from the U.S. directly by pipeline, even into areas where Altamira LNG was the typical supply there. So a lot of good things going on there as Mexico continues to bring in natural gas to replace more expensive power generation in their markets. On our own gas transmission systems, volumes are up 8% in 2020, on average, compared to the three-year average, so a lot of moving parts there. But we continue to see those volumes and certainly on our – on a 2Q to 2Q basis looking at our contracted capacity, of course, and that’s important to us, because that is actually how we get paid on our transmission systems. Now as we move on to Slide 5 and look at the production update and really pretty simple story here on the supply side. You can see the overall Lower-48 wellhead production in the second quarter of 2020 declined slightly versus 2Q of 2019 to about 0.3%, again, pretty flat. But Williams wellhead gathering actually increased by 3.6%, and that was despite the shut-ins in places like the Eagle Ford and the Gulf of Mexico. So we expect this to continue to be the story in a wide variety of market conditions, as the low-cost supplies will be the last off and the first to be called on to meet growing demand. We have focused our G&P business with this principle in mind and we’re really excited about the way our gathering and processing business is set up for the next several years here. Looking into the third quarter, we are seeing no exception, as gathering volumes continue to grow here in July, and our deepwater volumes, as you heard from John, have fully rebounded. I’m going to move on now to key investor focus areas. And so here on Slide 6, we take a look at these key areas for investors. Our business is durable, because we have the right strategy, the right assets, and we contract our business in a conservative manners that can withstand the kind of commodity upsets that we’ve witnessed here in the second quarter. Looking first on the durability and from a commercial perspective, our premier gas transmission assets serve as critical components of the nation’s natural gas grid and are driven by a long-term demand for capacity by the major utilities in the densely populated areas. Our transmission business has fully contracted cash flows with no commodity or volume exposure. And it is important to remember that when it comes to our pipeline business, it is the available capacity that we sell. Therefore, we are not dependent on throughput or volumes. We contract with high-credit quality customers, primarily utilities and power producers. And by the way, when we speak about credit, we have continually said that we do believe credit is very important for the long-term long haul pipeline contracts, and we have always held this out as a principle of contracting in the long haul business. In the G&P business, we protect our cash flows by providing services that are essential to the monetization of the reserves in the ground and by owning the infrastructure back to the wellhead in most cases. We also have a diverse portfolio of basins and customers within our G&P business that gives us the ability to withstand a lot of change – individual changes that go on amongst our producing customers. Additionally, most of our contracts are fixed fee and do not vary with the price of the commodity or basis differential. And that is why you’re seeing such steady and predictable cash flows continuing, despite a very difficult commodity pricing environment here in 2Q. Producer bankruptcy continues to be a hot topic in the Midstream sector. And, of course, Chesapeake recently filed for bankruptcy. I would note that despite there being a large number of long haul pipeline and processing contracts being listed by Chesapeake for rejection, none of our contracts have been slated for rejection. And that’s primarily due to the fact that we provide this essential service back to the wellhead. In fact, we see opportunity in the Chesapeake bankruptcy process to strengthen our relationship and expect restructuring to give Chesapeake the flexibility to navigate the fast shifting market and put these basins William serves in a healthier position for growth. So Chesapeake has got a great position in both the Bradford County, PA, as well as in the Haynesville, and we are well-positioned to serve the growth coming out of those basins as that dry gas gets called on here over the next couple of years. Looking on the financial side, let me start out by saying that despite an excessively high yield, it’s now over 8%. There is no reason need or intent to reduce our very well covered dividend. We grew it by 5% this year and we still expect our coverage to be 1.7% for the year. In fact, in addition to the coverage on our dividend, we also expect to more than cover our growth capital this year. This free cash flow generation will continue to improve credit metrics. And in the quarter, we saw our net debt to EBITDA actually go down to 4.31 times, really hard to find anyone improving their credit metrics more consistently than we have and especially in this environment. Turning quickly to guidance. Despite the turmoil in the space, we’re holding guidance on the profit side and reducing it on the spending side. On adjusted EBITDA, we still expect to land in the lower-half of the range, but our outlook has improved since our last earnings release. On DCF, we’re still forecasting the midpoint of the original range. But as you will note through the second quarter, we are pacing ahead of the midpoint. On growth CapEx, we’re reducing from the original range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, down to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion and that, of course, is providing further support for additional free cash flow generation and we have derisked most of the major projects for the year. So great performance by our project execution teams and this is one of the key drivers for the reduction in our CapEx. And with the risk reduction, we’re actually headed towards the lower-end of even this new range. So great job by our teams out there of continuing to control costs and execute on our projects in a difficult environment. Turning to sustainability and how we think about that at Williams. Sustainability grounded in sensibility is nothing new here at Williams. Over long-lived – operating this long-lived infrastructure requires focus on long-term sustainability. Our continued focus on sustainability delivers immense value that is well aligned with the interest of long-term shareholders. Our 2019 Sustainability Report was published on July 27. And this report really provides a very transparent view into the actions we are taking to balance the dual challenge of meeting increasing demand for energy, while reducing emissions and environmental impacts with practical and immediate solutions. More than 41 – and one of the highlights that I would point to you in there that I’m really proud of our operating teams for being so focused on is that, we’ve reduced our reported methane emissions by 41% since 2012. So really nice job by our teams on that and everybody is proud of what we’re doing to continue to do our part to improve the environment. And now turning to look at growth. Lots of concerns expressed about the difficult permitting environment that exists. Of course, for Williams, this is a double-edged sword. Our pipes and right-of-ways are positioned to serve some of the most densely populated areas. And as a result, we have the ability to expand these systems at much lower cost and with much less environmental impact that greenfield projects would present. Of course, this gives us tremendous advantage and provides us with unique growth opportunities at returns that can offset the risk associated with this difficult permitting environment. Looking at the quarter, despite the unfortunate decision that came out from New York on NESE during the quarter, we had terrific execution across the rest of our project portfolio. In fact, we’re now completing the final tie-ins on our 193-mile Bluestem NGL pipeline extending through Kansas and Oklahoma. And our 42-inch pipeline loop on Transco, along our Transco system for the Southeastern Trail project in Virginia, was completed and placed in service as well. So great work by the teams overcoming a lot of restrictions due to COVID. But really learning to work in a different way and continuing to deliver our projects on budget and on time. We also – on the G&P side, our Salem Compressor Station, which is in Ohio, was expanded in the dry Utica to meet a customer’s accelerated schedule needs. So a lot of great drilling success by Encino in the dry Utica and we’ve been working really hard to keep up with their expansion needs out there and really great to see them being successful. And our team is doing a great job of keeping up with that success. We also received a FERC Certificate for our Leidy South project in Pennsylvania. So really excited to see that project moving along. And Regional Energy Access continues to progress, and we are dusting off the plans as well required to help serve the ACP, Atlantic Coast Pipeline load that remains in the Mid-Atlantic. So we’ve always been extremely well-positioned to serve that load. And we’re now dusting off some of the original plans that we had. So we think that presents an opportunity, not – certainly not in the near-term, but over the long-term, presents continued growth opportunities along our transmission system. Taking a look at the growth in our gathering and processing business. First of all, the G&P business is meeting our expectations for the year. And we’ve got great performance out of the Northeast G&P footprint, both on a volume – keeping up with the volume growth out there, as well as cost controlled by our teams out there. So really great operating performance. Our low-cost basins provide predictable cash flow and continue to position us to grow in a wide range of supply and demand scenarios. As I mentioned earlier, we do believe being in the very lowest-cost – the very low – lowest-cost basins and being in the right spots in those basins is going to be a differentiator for us as we’re moving into these low commodity prices, both on the oil side and as we continue to see gas demand continue to increase. The most economic gas supplies, we think, will come out of places like Susquehanna, Bradford Counties in Northeast PA, the Dry Utica, the Southwest Marcellus area and the core Haynesville. Our teams continue to tie-in new production and expand compressor stations just like clockwork in both the Northeast and the Haynesville. So you don’t hear about a lot of those projects, because they don’t hit the major products radar screen, but a tremendous amount of great work going on by our teams out there keeping up with that growth. In the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, we have really a unique set of capabilities and very well-positioned infrastructure. And we are continuing to win a lot of new business in the Gulf. Latest that we reported on was the LLOG Taggart tie-back. With Taggart, we now expect four expansions – major expansions to come online in 2022 through 2024. And those projects, we estimate somewhere around $300 million of EBITDA just from those four projects and the majority of that will come on into 2024. But even beyond the big sizable package that you hear about, we continue to build a string of base hits. And now in addition to Taggart, we signed up two other new deepwater packages that will deliver ahead of these larger plays. And in the 2Q, the latest that we’ve contracted four were Fieldwood, [ph] Katmai, Prospect, as well as LLOG Spruance on our discovery system, so really great work going on by our teams out there. So in a move to close here, we’ve intentionally built a business that is steady and predictable. And this quarter was a chance to show just how durable this business can be against a number of headwinds. Our natural gas focus strategy positions us well to capitalize on continued natural gas growth. Our existing transmission infrastructure offers growth advantage, as well as durability of cash flows. And our low-cost basins provide predictable cash flows and position us to grow in a wide range of supply and demand scenarios. We remain bullish on natural gas demand growth, because we recognize the critical role natural gas does and will continue to play in a clean energy economy. Thanks for natural gas. The U.S. continues to see significant reductions in CO2 emissions, along with lower consumer utility bills, and this has enhanced the opportunities for investment in renewable energy. And finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t close my remarks by acknowledging the tremendous efforts of our entire workforce who continue to do their part to ensure the delivery of natural gas to American city – cities and communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. These efforts are frequently overlooked by the general public, who often take for granted a highly reliable and safe energy infrastructure that enables our everyday lives and jobs across our great country, and I’m extremely proud of our employees for their efforts to keep our operations running smoothly, while also going the extra mile to keep themselves and their coworkers safe and healthy. And with that, I’ll open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Just want to start off with, I guess, producer activity across your footprint here. It seems like natural gas has rebounded a bit and commodity prices coming up a bit here. So just wondering if you could give us a flavor of what you’re seeing across your G&P footprint there? Do you think that the West could tick up again quarter-over-quarter that was certainly a better showing there than what we expected? So any color, I guess, on producer activity across your footprint would be helpful?
Micheal Dunn:
Hi, good morning, Jeremy. This is Micheal. We are seeing some activity there across all of our dry gas basins, where producer customers are expecting higher prices next year and we’re seeing that in the forward curve as well. You’ve seen probably some of the comments from some of our customers that they’re being cautious, I think, with what they’re saying, but they are prepared to participate in a higher-price environment. And we would expect to see that not only in the Rockies, but in the Northeast PA and in the Haynesville. We’ve even seen some pretty decent activity in the Barnett with some workovers there and some new production coming on just from some wells that had been underperforming. So they are anticipating and taking advantage. It looks like a potential higher-price environment next year.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thanks. And switching gears, it seems like more of the utilities are kind of running test pilots with regards to hydrogen. And granted, it’s probably pretty later data at this point. But just want to see if you had any thoughts as far as hydrogen blending, if that is something that Williams could play a role in going forward? Or any thoughts on this topic would be helpful? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Jeremy, great question, and thank you. We have several projects right now, where we’re bringing in renewable gas from dairy operations and from waste areas. And so we are working. We’ve got a lot of them already online, and we’re continuing to work on those projects. And I would say, those are – will be obviously ahead of hydrogen in terms of coming on, but we do see a lot of investment opportunity around that. Also, on the hydrogen front, certainly, we’ve heard the message loud and clear from places like New York about the political support for decarbonization, and we think that presents a great opportunity for us at Williams to invest with our customers in projects like that. And so we certainly are interested in doing that and think we’re extremely well-positioned, given our distribution network into those densely populated areas. We think we’re extremely well-positioned to be able to take advantage. And especially as renewable – excess renewable power becomes available and converting that to hydrogen as a form of energy storage, we’re extremely well-positioned to take part in that. And as you’ve seen on the solar front, we’re certainly interested in making investments where they make sense in and around our pipeline systems and to take advantage of investments in renewable opportunities. And so we’re no stranger to it. The team has done a great job of picking up new opportunities like that. And Chad Zamarin and his team have continued to look into opportunities like that. And I think that’s – nobody is better positioned for that than Williams, frankly. So we look forward to continuing to look into those opportunities.
Jeremy Tonet:
That’s a very helpful color. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering & Holt. Your line is now open.
Colton Bean:
Good morning. So, Alan, maybe just to follow-up on that on the solar initiative. How do you see that playing out over the next five years or so? And what would you need to see to evaluate renewables as a revenue driver versus primarily cost savings?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I’m going to have Chad Zamarin to address that for you, Colton.
Chad Zamarin:
Sure. Yes. No, I think one of the great things about our position is that, we don’t just view renewable investments as a cost savings opportunity. We do see them as good accretive investments and solar is one of those examples. I think we expect to invest somewhere between $200 million to $400 million over the next few years in solar projects that are immediately along our footprint. Now, we will likely have partners in those projects in order to optimize the way that gets installed and optimize the value that Williams can capture. But I would just say, Alan mentioned, we’re – we’ve got a fairly good pipeline of opportunities on the solar front. Alan mentioned, we have existing RNG projects coming into the system. We have a pretty good line of sight towards project, add additional dairy farm, landfill projects to our system, where not only we can invest in that upstream opportunity, but we can build the infrastructure to bring that renewable gas into our main line systems. And then just as a follow-up on the hydrogen front, I think, anywhere where we see, if there will be an opportunity to create value along our pipeline footprint, I think, no one is better positioned than Williams. When you think of our footprint up into the Northwest and our footprint along the Eastern Seaboard and up into the Northeast, I think, we’re very well-positioned to capture project opportunities that add value and do create revenue generation opportunities. And so I think it’s early days. But I will tell you that we are very focused on that part of the business, because we truly believe that natural gas is part of the solution for how we can invest further in renewables in the United States. So I would expect that focus to continue and we’ll continue to find opportunities over the next several years.
Colton Bean:
Great. I appreciate the added detail there. And just switching over to the capital front, I think, we’ve seen a few Northeast producers reference a maintenance case for 2021. So I know great preliminary, but any expectations for what WMB’s capital needs might look like in a flattish volume environment?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say we continue to see growth in the Northeast. And I think, as Micheal mentioned, it’s largely dependent on the forward curve, but we do have a lot of producers that are looking to take advantage of that. And so I would just say, the growth is going to have to come from somewhere. If we don’t see an oil price recovery, we’re going to – there’s going to have to be replacement of those volumes, as well as continue to meet demand growth. It’s pretty amazing if we look at how low LNG exports are and yet our demand for the year has still grown. And so if we were enjoying that LNG – a typical LNG demand, we would really have the outstripping right now and the market would be turning the other way pretty quickly, I think. So said another way, I’m not sure I would agree that we’ll see flat volumes and certainly don’t see that coming out of the low-price basins, like the Northeast Marcellus and the Haynesville and the dry Utica. So – but if we did see that, I would just say, our capital has gotten lower and lower and lower in the Northeast, because our systems are very expanded right now. We’ve done a great job of that. We are looking at a couple of expansions, as Micheal mentioned, that are pretty sizable, but that’s in kind of the planning horizon right now. But if we do see flat, there’s just not a whole lot of capital demand for the Northeast. And so just because our systems are already covering such a wide swath of the acreage that’s dedicated to us something.
Colton Bean:
Okay. I appreciate it, Alan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Moreen with Mizuho. Your line is now open.
Gabriel Moreen:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Alan, maybe I’ll bite on the dusting off the plans, given the APC’s demise. Can you just talk about kind of future strategy there? Are these smaller bolt-on projects? Is it something that would be more sizeable and larger capacity?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say, we’re – those are obviously going to be customer-driven there. And we certainly are well-positioned to work with the customers to help meet those growing demand with the two laterals, both the main line that goes through Virginia there and with sizable capacity to deliver, as well as the two laterals, the Cardinal line and South Virginia laterals that stretch into those markets. Nobody is better positioned than we are to expand that. And originally, I would just say, we – we’re pretty certain that expansion alternatives that we had there were a very low-cost. And the primary reason for going to ACP in that case was the benefits of having another major system in the area for liability purposes. But we think with the pressure on cost and the conflict, we’re confident we can maintain that reliability that we’ve always provided for that area, but at a much lower cost. And so I would just say, we’re working closely with the customers in the area to look at their demand requirements. And we’ve got a great relationship with the customers in those markets, and we’re going to look to tailor our solutions to fit their needs. But in terms of the existing right-of-way, the existing capacity, the ability to expand those debt capacity into those markets. And they goes without saying that nobody is better positioned than we are to help serve that. And we can do it – importantly, we can do it on an incremental basis. And so said another way, we don’t have to build all the capacity all at once. We can do that over time. And, of course, that’s a huge advantage when it comes to cost efficiency and return on capital to be able to expand those systems as the demand needs, of course. So Micheal, anything you would add to that?
Micheal Dunn:
I would just say, the other aspect that we have that Alan just commented a bit in regard to our existing systems. Building on those brownfield systems is a much lower environmental footprint and environmental impact. And we think that’s something that will carry today as well in regard to these incremental expansions that we can bring to those customers in that area.
Gabriel Moreen:
Thanks. And then maybe if I can ask also, it seems like ethane recovery has ticked up a bit. I’m just wondering what you’re seeing on your systems out there in the West, whether that’s been maybe a source of a little upside and if it continues, whether that could mean improved economics out of Bluestem?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. We certainly are seeing ethane recovery continue out there and that is boosting volumes in the area. So you may have seen in our OPPL volumes, we’re actually down for the quarter. But that’s just because we had a customer that chose to take their volumes off and pay us for that volume efficiency rather than ship. And so that – so said another way, while the volumes were off a little bit there, the revenues were not off from that. And so – but we do see expanded opportunity, as ethane recovery comes in. We’re seeing the Ford market is actually continuing to show margin for most of the rest of the year on ethane. And so, given our limited appetite for commodity price risk, we’re taking advantage of that as we see that forward market present itself for taking advantage of that.
Gabriel Moreen:
Great. Thanks, Alan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Derek Walker with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Derek Walker:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Maybe just a couple of quick ones for me. Alan, you talked about addressing some of the counterparty risk and you obviously talked about Chesapeake actually presenting some potential opportunities around some of the restructuring potentially benefit in Bradford and Haynesville. Just want to see if you can provide a little bit more color around some of the dynamics there? And then I know Chesapeake has some exposure in Eagle Ford, or you have exposure to test being in Eagle Ford? Can you just talk a little bit more about some of the outcomes you might see in that basin? Thanks.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, this is Micheal. I guess, I’ve walked through the three major basins that we have exposure with Chesapeake and the Bradford. We have a cost of service agreement there with them. It’s a very low-cost rate that they enjoy there. It’s a cost of service agreement, that’s actually working very well for both us and the customer. And I would not expect, obviously, any pressure there with the continued growth that we’re seeing. Haynesville, a very similar situation. We expect continued growth out of the Haynesville. We have been working with a number of customers in the Haynesville to offer incentive rate there where it makes sense to incent some additional drilling whenever the prices were lower, and we think there’s an opportunity to continue that if prices don’t rebound. But right now, the strip looks more favorable for that dry gas basin in there. And in the Eagle Ford, we have a substantial footprint there with Chesapeake as well, and we move a lot of volume. Those volumes are back to where they were a pre-COVID situation for the most part. And that’s the basin that’s obviously exposed to NGL prices, as well as condensate and oil prices. And as those prices are expected to rebound with picked up demand, we would expect the Eagle Ford to be another area that we would continue to see some growth in the future with Chesapeake. So those three major basins, we have Chesapeake. We don’t see a worry on our horizon in regard to continuing to see good economics for the customer there, as well as for our Midstream business.
Derek Walker:
And as far as the incentives in the Haynesville, is that – would that be on an incremental production? Would that be – what type of rate would that look like compared to what you’re currently charging in?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. That is on incremental production only. We’re not discounting, obviously, any PDP volumes that we have going on our systems today.
Alan Armstrong:
And I would add to that, where we are doing that the only place we would agree to do that is where we don’t have any capital investment. So this would just be incremental drilling, where there’s no capital required on our part. And so we love that business to have the incremental flowing volumes and have that revenue grow without having to spend any well-connect capital out there. And so that’s a great opportunity for both the us and the producer. If prices firm out there a bit, then there won’t be a need to do that and we won’t. But if prices are low enough, that’s a great way for us to keep the cash flows building without spending new capital.
Derek Walker:
I appreciate that. Maybe just a follow-up on the deepwater. I want to make sure I heard some of the numbers right. I think from the slide and based on guidance, I think, you’re running around $450 million of EBITDA on deepwater, with $300 million expected from the four major projects. Should we think of that base EBITDA as being fairly flat? Or is there some sort of impact from the actual decline rate? So just trying to get a sense of that $300 million that you referenced is going to be incremental or potentially offsetting some natural decline?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. That’s a great question. I mean, obviously, the deepwater business does decline over time and I’m not confirming the $450 million here. But let’s assume it’s in that range. Normally, you would expect declines. The good news is that we’ve continued to be tying in so many single base hits that I’ve referred to earlier, that that’s tending to offset that normal decline ahead of those bigger projects. So will it stay actually flat? I would say, if we start counting that those projects in, then the answer would be no. We would have some decline underneath that. But so far, the the environment is really positive out there, and infill that’s coming from producers in and around our assets is offsetting those declines. And so this would be incremental, but that is dependent on those continued tie-in. So obviously, there – we don’t have contractual protection from the declines out there. I guess, I would remind you.
John Chandler:
One thing – this is John Chandler. One thing I’d add to that, too, is we do have a couple of more quarters of deferred revenue step downs related to a big platform that customer paid for several years ago. That pretty much stabilizes at the end of this year and the step down stopped, but we’ve got another probably ZIP code $50 million of step downs between the next two quarters in deferred revenue in the deepwater.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, John.
Derek Walker:
Got it. Thanks, guys. I really appreciate it. Thanks, Alan. Thanks, John. Thanks, Mike. That’s it from me.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Your line is now open.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Most of my questions have been asked and answered. Just two clarification questions, if I may. The first one is just with a lot of focus on the election these days and sort of an expectation out there that tax rates could go up, would you be in a position in from a Transco perspective to be able to increase rates as a result of higher tax rates? Or does the recent settlement that you entered into prevent that from occurring?
John Chandler:
No. I mean, we – obviously, as part of our rate settlement exercise, we do build in tax rates. Now we have to wait for our next rate case, obviously, to push that through to our base rates. So yes, clearly, higher tax rates would benefit us in the form of higher rates in the future on the rates that are subject to our rate negotiate or to the rate case. Now again, remember, on our Transco system, about 50% of our rates are negotiated. So obviously, it wouldn’t have an impact on that. But certainly, the rate – part of our rate case and rate base is subject to an assumption on taxes – the tax rates.
Alan Armstrong:
Certainly, it’d be beneficial almost in whole the Northwest Pipeline, right? Because we don’t have the negotiated rate element of that in Northwest Pipeline. So about half of Transco and nearly all of Northwest Pipeline would benefit from that.
Shneur Gershuni:
So that makes perfect sense. Thanks, guys. And maybe just one clarification with respect to your guidance commentary today. If I sort of think back to when you last updated us formally second quarter was supposed to be the most challenging quarter for 2020. Decent – pretty strong quarter. Officially, your guidance commentary hasn’t changed. But in your prepared remarks, you said that things were looking more promising. So when I sort of see no change to guidance, it sort of implies the second-half might actually be worse than 2Q, or is this just more nuance that you’re just not formally changing your guidance at all, because nothing has changed materially? Is that kind of the way to read it?
Alan Armstrong:
I was wondering who was going to raise that, Shneur. Thank you. I would just say that, yes, we had a good quarter. We’ve had a good first-half of the year. You can see our costs are extremely low. I think, we want to make sure that we’ve got room in there for things like we’re going into to a more intense part of the hurricane season. And so we – and we certainly plan on things like that disrupting our business. So, yes, I think we’re extremely well-positioned right now on guidance to outperform on that, but there are always things that can go against you and – in – on both the cost side, as well as disruptions like hurricanes or another price setback on crude oil that might cause shut-ins in the deepwater or in other oil basins as well. So I would just say, we’re wanting to make sure – given the uncertainties in the market, we’re wanting to make sure that we’ve got room here for the balance of the year, as it relates to guidance.
Shneur Gershuni:
So to paraphrase, an element of conservatism is basically baked in there. Is that kind of the right way to read it?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, yes. But I also would say that, it would be rare that we wouldn’t have some kind of Hurricane impact in 3Q as well, and it’s a question of how big that is obviously? And I would say, I think, it’s not necessarily conservative to think that, that we might have more pricing impact rebound here. So I think, yes, we have room for those kind of things. You can say that’s going to – if you want to claim that’s conservative, then I would say that factor.
John Chandler:
And, Shneur, this is John Chandler. I just say one other thing. I think our teams do a fantastic job of forecasting. But I’ve got to tell you in this COVID environment, it’s tough looking at cost, and I’m talking about our field people actually forecasting as well. We’ve done a tremendous job at cost savings year-to-date. I have a suspicion that’s going to continue. It’s hard for our folks to forecast that with any level of accuracy. I mean, we don’t even know when people could come back in the office that – with the COVID. And so if you think about somebody in the field trying to plan for maintenance or just even hiring people, that’s not an easy thing to do. So we’ve been very successful in cost reductions. I suspect that will continue, but I don’t imagine that’s fully baked through our forecast as good as we’re going to do is my guess.
Shneur Gershuni:
No, that makes perfect sense, guys. I really appreciate the color and have a safe day.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Shneur.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Good morning. Warren Buffett’s purchase from Dominion said a marker in the space, but I’m not sure it was a great one at 10x for mostly demand coal gas assets. Did you compare and contrast how you see Transco and Northwest Pipeline compared to those assets, especially Dominion Gas, which was the bulk of the purchase?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I’ll take that, Jean Ann, and I think Micheal has got some comments on that as well. First of all, I think, it’d be hard to compare the quality of those assets up against ours, both in terms of growth and headroom in the markets and the network benefits that our systems have. But I also would remind you that there were things like on the Cove Point facility. There was a step down coming there, because they were still getting paid for the gasification side of Cove Point. Of course, we used to own that. So, we understand those contracts. And so to not take that into consideration, I think, is something you certainly wouldn’t see the Buffett organization do to not take that into consideration. And so I think anytime you’re looking at price points, you have to get pretty specific, especially when you have major contract shifts like that in a business like that. So Micheal, I don’t know if you have some additions?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. I think I would just add on the amount of debt that was taken on there as part of reflective of the multiple that was paid as well. So I think you have to take that into consideration, as Alan said. And I don’t think there’s a comparable system for the Transco system out there right now, and that’s certainly not a good marker for any of our transmission assets, especially the Transco system today.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Great. That’s helpful. Thank you. And just as a quick follow-up. With the completion of Mountain Valley drive increased potential firm transport opportunities on Transco, it seems like it’s actually getting pretty close?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. We certainly are rooting for MVP and would provide supply at a point, where we could continue to serve market expansions. And so we we certainly would love to see that get completed, because it does bring supply right into a critical point of our system that allows our network to continue to expand and serve expansions along our system.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Tristan Richardson:
Good morning, guys. I appreciate all the comments today, particularly around the update on 2020 capital plans. As you look out further, as we think about capital towards Bluestem and Southeastern Trail winding down, and Taggart and Leidy South and some of the renewables projects ramping up, is it possible you could see the 2021 capital look very similar to 2020?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think it’s a little bit early to call that for a number of reasons. But, yes, I – we don’t see right now that being having a whole lot of load against it. Regional Energy Access, obviously, was a little bit later in the cycle and the well investment for shale will probably start more seriously towards the end of 2021 or end of 2022. And both of those projects would drive our capital back up to the $1.5 billion, $2 billion range. But – so I would just say, so it’ll be somewhat timing dependent on those projects as to how quickly we started investing on those projects and drive that capital up further.
Tristan Richardson:
That’s great. That’s all I had. Thank you guys very much.
Operator:
That’s all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Alan Armstrong for closing comments.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much. I do have one note that I’d like to recognize somebody here at the company. It’s very difficult to do the typical celebrations that we do for retirement. But Ted Timmermans, who has served the Williams Company for over 41 years and – has referred as the – was our Chief Accounting Officer here at Williams for 15 years. This is his last effort for the quarterly call, and John Porter is taking over the Chief Accounting Officer role and have been a great transition that’s gone on there, much in keeping with the way Williams does business, very steady hand on that. But I certainly want to just say a huge thanks to Ted Timmermans for all of his great service to the company and for the the standards of excellence that he has always established in our accounting efforts here at Williams. And we were very fortunate to have his leadership here at Williams for a number of years. So, Ted, thank you very much, and we wish you the very best in retirement. And with that, we thank you very much and we appreciate to continuing to share the good story here at Williams. Have a good day.
Operator:
That concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Williams First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Brett Krieg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Brett Krieg:
Thanks, Simon. Good morning, thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us on the call today are our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler; our General Counsel, Lane Wilson; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin. In our presentation materials, you will find the disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, great. Thanks, Brett, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we go through our first quarter 2020 financial performance. While the world around us has changed dramatically, some things have remained remarkably stable, and we should not take for granted the sacrifices and dedication required to keep the most essential of services available to us. But I'd like to start by thanking the frontline employees of The Williams, who have continued to operate our critical natural gas infrastructure during the Coronavirus pandemic. We often take our warm and well lit homes for granted, but it took great dedication, extra effort and resourcefulness to keep our most basic energy needs available during these disruptive times. Thankfully, we have always maintained robust plans to ensure business continuity, and we've been able to successfully execute on these plans while staying aligned with federal and state guidelines to keep our employees healthy and safe. I'm glad to report we have not missed a beat and this is a testament to the efforts of our employees across the country. Of course, the other big related news story that we're closely monitoring is the collapse in oil prices, and the impact this is having on our upstream customers. With that said, let's get to the business at hand and talk about our strong 1Q '20 performance. On Slide 1, we've provided a clear view of our first quarter 2020 financial performance relative to 1Q of '19 and as you can see, this was a really good quarter. We continue to enjoy steady growth across our key measures despite the impact of much lower commodity margins and deferred revenue recognition step down. From the top of the table you'll see we continued a long trend of year-over-year growth in cash flow from operations, our adjusted EBITDA also increased 4%, and while this is attractive growth, this growth rate would be 8% if you peel back some of the non cash items related to step downs and deferred revenue amortization and the impact of declining prices on our carried NGL inventories. I'll discuss the key business drivers and unique issues affecting adjusted EBITDA in more detail on the next slide but DCF was up an impressive 10% on a year-over-year basis. And of course, all this continues to drive impressive growth in our per share metrics adjusted EPS and DCF as well. We also were very pleased to continue growing our strong coverage ratio by 5% on top of the 5.3% dividend growth that we established earlier this year. Our 1.78 times coverage ratio means DCF exceeded dividends paid by $376 million another strong data point driving our cash flow performance in the first quarter was a 45%, or nearly $200 million reduction in growth capital expenditures. Taking all of these items into account, the strong DCF, the growth in the dividend and disciplined growth capital spending, Williams generated real free cash flow of $144 million this quarter alone, a lot of different versions of free cash flow out there but this is after all of our cash expenses, the dividend, and our growth capital expenditures as well. These financial results further reduced our debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to 4.36 times for the first quarter. As reminder this ratio stood at 4.8 times at the end of 2018, and since then, we have moved this important ratio nearly 75% of the way to our longer term goal of the 4.2 times leverage that we've reminded you up several times. We are pleased with this performance. And we have intentionally built our business to be resilient through a variety of market cycles and that strategy is certainly helping us navigate today's choppy waters. Our healthy dividend coverage and strong balance sheet leading into 2020 have put us in a very stable financial position and well positioned to navigate the changes that we're experiencing across the industry. So let's move to Slide 2 and discuss the main business drivers of our first quarter 2020 adjusted EBITDA results. Before we dive into the drivers for this quarter, I want to remind you that we have transitioned our business segment disclosures to align with our internal reorganization that took effect in January. Our transmission in Gulf of Mexico operating area now includes all of our regulated natural gas transmission pipelines post Transco, Northwest and Gulf Stream and our deepwater Gulf of Mexico assets that delivers supplies into Transco and Gulf Stream. We will continue to evaluate and disclose the performance of the Northeast GMP and West operating areas separately but those segments are now integrated from the senior leadership and overhead standpoint and that change allows us to improve efficiency, alignment, and cost savings across all of our onshore gathering and processing business. So now looking at the chart on Slide 2, we compare adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022 to the same period in 2019, and I'll quickly remind you that 1Q '19 represented a great period of growth for us, which was just following the Atlantic Sunrise startup and the associated Northeast gathering volume growth that we said. So a nice strong comp to compare ourselves to but before we get into discussion the key business drivers, I also want to talk about some of the things that affected the EBITDA number that I think obscure the underlying business performance. First is the impact of the lower deferred revenue recognition in the Barnett and our Gulfstar deepwater platform. These are both non-cash items totaling $21 million, and are not reflective of the ongoing cash flow from these assets. We also saw 24 million of impact this quarter related to decreases in inventory values. This was due to decline in the value of NGL line-fill and write-downs of NGL commodities and storage. While NGL price exposure is clearly part of our business, these charges are driven by directional movement of market prices and for this sort of charge to recur, we would have to see a continual drop in NGL prices from the already very low prices that we marked these inventories that on March, 31. So of course this does not include the actual NGLs that we produced and the equity sales that we had in the quarter. This was just the inventories and the repricing of inventories from our line-fill, our storage and our marketing teams inventory. Another way of looking at this is to answer the question of what would the run rate be for the balance of the year with identical operations and pricing that we saw in 1Q '20. The primary adjustment would be to add back to 24 million of inventory valuation right down to the 1.262 billion for the next three quarters, and this would provide us with an annual number above the midpoint of our guidance. To be fair, we had very low repair and maintenance costs this quarter, and we're not assuming that continues through the balance of the year. But I think this analysis highlights how pleased we were and are with our execution here in the first quarter. So after touching on those issues, let's dive into the key drivers. First of all, the primary drivers for the transmission in Gulf of Mexico segment was the decrease in recognized revenues, on our deepwater Gulfstar platform, which was coupled with the end of fixed payments on platform space. And, you know, we've reminded you of that several times that actually that fixed payments ended May of last year. And so this is, you'll hear a little bit about noise on this in second quarter and then we'll have a normal comp past that. Beyond this change on Gulfstar, the transmission in Gulf of Mexico was up $60 million from the first quarter of 2019. This was driven by Transco revenue growth from the Rivervale South to Market and gateway expansion projects and the Northwest pipeline North Seattle project. Additionally, our first quarter 2020 results include increased EBITDA from the Transco rate case settlement, and the benefit of cost saving and cost savings initiatives implemented in late 2019 on our operating teams there. Lastly, total deepwater gas volumes were up 8% year-over-year, mostly from the northwest pipeline and Hudak Gulf East projects that came online in the second half of 2019. And next, in the Northeast GMP adjusted EBITDA, we saw we were up $58 million and this was driven by higher gathering, processing and liquids handling revenue, a lot of new assets put in service in the second half of '19 that drove this, and we're providing additional services to volumes that we are already gathering there. This along with a relentless focus on cost containment and efficiency drove adjusted EBITDA growth of 23% for the Northeast operating area. Total gathered volumes consolidated and non-consolidated grew by 4% with the primary contributors coming from the Marcellus South, Ohio Valley Midstream, I’ll remind you that Ohio Valley Midstream is the Northeast JV that we have with the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board, and then the Susquehanna Supply Hub also contributed to that growth. This EBITDA and gathering volume performance resulted in this segment realizing $0.52 of EBITDA per gathered Mcf. So I’ll remind you that's the measure that we talked about back at our 2017 Analyst Day when we laid out the - our long term aspirations for the area, and so just to remind you, that range that we talked about, then was $0.50 to $0.55, so we wind up now in the middle of that range. So we're really, really thrilled to have achieved that important measure and I think that move from as I recall, I think that was around $0.36 - $0.37 back then. So really impressive move by the team as we've been able to continue to increase our unit costs - lower our unit costs and continue to drive efficiency in that basin. Of course there's a number of factors that have driven that and we're really excited though to have the scale that we do have now in that area. And this is going to allow us to continue using our low costs to drive competitive advantages and further growth in that basin. Moving on the West, the real story here is the steady business. Volume remained relatively flat and setting aside the non-cash Barnett issue in NGL inventory write-down. The West adjusted EBITDA was down about $13 million. The decline is mostly attributable to lower commodity margins driven by substantially lower NGL prices realized on our sold equity barrels during the quarter. So, now I'm going to move on to looking at the natural gas demand picture. We talked a little bit about this on our March 25 call, and I just wanted to update folks a lot of different stories out there in the markets around natural gas demand, and so wanted to give you the direct viewpoint that we have as Williams on this. Overall, we are seeing natural gas demand has remained strong, both broadly across the market and on our systems. In fact, we're seeing evidence that natural gas is not only holding up nicely, but even exceeding recent historical norms. And while it's hard to predict very far into the future right now, we have seen demand for natural gas in the U.S., including the exports to Mexico and LNG exports remaining strong. It's a vastly different picture than what we're seeing in crude oil demand. Demand in the continental U.S. has generally been above the three year historical average in comparable weeks for natural gas. We have strong demand in the power sector, industrial was down slightly, res comm has held in very well despite mild weather, and LNG and Mexico exports have driven demand up over the prior year averages. One thing I do want to make sure you can see in this chart on the left is that the week-over-week behavior demand is a seasonal impact. The sequential declines have been - we've seen in weekly demand since January are the normal behavior we see when we move out of cold winter months and into the shoulder months of more temperate weather before the heat of summer starts to drive electrical load due to air conditioning demand. So we only mentioned that we know a lot of that that is very obvious to most people, but we certainly seen a lot of headlines coming out talking about lower natural gas demand and if you read through the headlines that go with that, you will notice that a lot of that is just normal demand associated with weather. Looking at the right hand side, which reflects flow data right off our gas transmission systems, we continue to see normal behavior with deliveries generally staying within the normal range when compared to last year. And while the EBITDA generated by a regulated gas transmission systems' is not impacted by volume fluctuations, thanks to the fully contracted capacity payments we received. We do monitor these volumes to get a sense for demand in the markets we serve, and the gathering volumes that serve those markets as well. As we have consistently said over the last several years, our business is driven primarily by natural gas demand. Current and near term future demand drives revenue on our gathering and processing systems as the various sources of U.S. production meet this demand and long term demand growth drives the opportunity to expand our gas transmission system. As more and more people see the benefits of consuming low cost abundant clean natural gas, end users will continue to invest in gas consumption and the transportation capacity need to access this reliable energy source. We will keep monitoring demand as we plan for the rest of this year and '21 and beyond, one thing we are seeing right now is extremely low international prices for LNG. European gas storage is very high right now after an even milder winter than what we experienced during the U.S. and while this may affect demand for U.S. gas over the summer, we see this pricing issue as cyclical and not secular. As we look further out, we remain extremely confident in U.S. natural gas production as a low cost supply to world hungry for reliable, abundant clean energy and in our business strategy to provide long term value based on that demand for natural gas. So now let's turn to some of the key areas we believe investors are focused on now, and how our business works through the lens of some of these risks and opportunities we know our investors are trying to assess. I’ll start with the market environment we find ourselves in now. I won't dive into all of the current and extending drivers of the oil price collapse, but we'll lay out the distinctions between the drivers of low natural gas price and the drivers of low oil price. Low natural gas prices have existed here for a few years now driven by supplies growing even faster than the growing demand we have enjoyed. The latest oil price collapse we've seen has been primarily driven by tremendous demand destruction. When you are in the business of moving these commodities, this distinction is everything. Confidence in abundant, clean and low cost natural gas supplies have driven consistent demand growth of 24% over the last three years, and that growth in demand will continue. On the other hand, lower demand for refined products ultimately means lower oil prices and lower volume. So what does that mean for domestic supplies? With the oil price collapse, we expect associated gas from oil producing basins like the Permian, Bakken, Scoop/Stack and Eagle Ford to decline, and we expect gas directed basins to gain market share. As producers began shutting in some flowing oil production to avoid filling storage and selling their production at unacceptable prices, we'll see reductions in associated gas accelerate. This decline will continue as the void in drilling and completions of oil wells begins to show the underlying decline in the large number of new oil well supplying the market. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, we see natural gas demand has remained strong. And over the long term we expect that strength to continue. So what does this all mean, this rapidly changing market environment, what does this all mean for Williams? We do expect the gas gathering we do in the oil basis to be impacted by the oil price shock both near term shut-ins and longer term, the impact of lower prices for longer that will likely reduce capital available for U.S. shale oil production. The largest impact will be the reduced growth in the Permian and DJ Basins business, including the associated NGL volumes from the DJ. In 2019, the Permian DJ and Mid-continent basins were approximately 2% of our EBITDA just to keep those declines in perspective. The Eagle Ford is our single largest onshore Shell oil facing business at 5% of our 2019 EBITDA. We recently renegotiated the contracts with Chesapeake, our largest customer in Eagle Ford from a cost of service contract with rates that vary by year as volumes vary to a fixed fee contract which has a minimum volume commitment. This contract which was negotiated and executed in late 2019 became effective on January 1, of 2020 and it is designed to insulate us from volume fluctuations in the Eagle Ford. It also includes language which makes it abundantly clear that our contractual rights are linked directly to the minerals in the ground. Our Gulf of Mexico business is driven primarily by oil economics and is not immune to oil price risk. However, it is uniquely positioned versus onshore oil business. The deepwater business requires a very long term view given the multi-year multi-billion dollar investments required by producers to bring on very large scale reserves. The customer base is primarily international integrated oil companies, or large scale independence with significant expertise in the deepwater for whom existing assets provide synergies for future investments. With regards to future project opportunities, our producer customers in the offshore business will clearly be looking at oil prices, but it will be with a long term vision for where prices will be in the next three to four years. Williams will be impacted in the near term by some Gulf of Mexico production shut-in from small producers, but we do not expect that to be a significant volume. Also remember that producers bear significant fixed costs when operating deepwater production, most of which don't go away during the shut-in. So therefore we expect offshore shut-ins if they do occur to be some of the shortest duration, oil production shut-ins that we'll see here in the U.S. Along with the dramatically lower oil and NGL prices has come well deserved concern about our counterparty exposure with our customers, so let's focus for a moment on our customer base and the practical risk of not getting paid for the terms of our contracts. From our perspective it's very important to look beyond a simple credit rating breakdown and really look at the services being provided and the essential nature of the assets that we utilize to serve our customers. We think about our counterparty exposure much differently in the GMP business than we do in the gas transmission business. Counterparty credit quality is extremely important in any long haul business, where there are a number of different ways to get gas to a wide variety of markets, and gas transmission you rely heavily on the ability of your counterparty to pay you for the capacity over a very long term that the assets were designed and built for. We watch our gas transmission counterparty exposure carefully and have built a portfolio of contracts dominated by demand pool investment grade rated counterparties. Customers who need to have capacity is able to meet their peak demands, rather than customers who are trying to find a market for their gas. The gathering and processing business due to the universe of EMP companies includes smaller, less capitalized counterparties. These are very accomplished operators. These are the independent producers who have led the charge in creating energy independence here in the U.S., but often with lower credit ratings or no credit ratings at all. We do value high credit quality amongst all our counterparties and closely monitor the credit quality of our portfolio of GMP customers. But we also mitigate the credit risks we necessarily take on them at GMP business with scale and with wellhead or well pad connectivity. A large scale system that connects directly into producers reserves is difficult to reproduce, and our customers will honor our contracts and utilize our services, even when they're in financial distress. We have a strong track record of seeing the contracts for our wellhead gathering services survive, a wide range of corporate actions or restructuring processes, even bankruptcy and by our producing customers. In fact, we see the real risk of gathering gasp for financially distressed counterparties as a risk to growth rather than a risk to the revenue we earn on the flowing reserves. A distressed customer will not be able to fund the sort of drilling capital necessary to grow their production and our gathering revenues. So we hear a lot of concerns out there about bankruptcy but I would just tell you that the real issue for us is we've got whole lot of great acreage dedicated to us and what we want our adequately capitalized customers being able to drill on the great debt acreage that's dedicated to us and that's the real impact that we see during this financial distress. The picture we have been painting through this discussion so far into our financial performance is one of stability and predictability. That stability and predictability is a bedrock on which we build a conservative financial policy and capital allocation process that drives a return of value to our shareholders. We pay a very attractive dividend based on our $0.40 quarterly dividend which annualizes to $1.60 and yesterday afternoon closed at $19.13. That $1.60 dividend offers an 8.4% yield. This very attractive yield is well covered and WMB is one of the very few large infrastructure players that is also more than covering its growth capital spending as well. We have been reining in our growth capital very tightly over the last couple of years, as we've been working hard to improve our balance sheet. Many of our peers have talked about significant cuts to CapEx budgets, as they are now scrambling to cut this year and we've already travelled much of this road making significant cuts to our capital spending year-over-year for the past several years. In fact, our total capital expenditures growth and maintenance in 2019 was $2.4 billion, which was 40% below the 2018 total capital expenditures of $4.2 billion and with our latest thoughts on growth and maintenance CapEx here for 2020, we are now positioned to see another 40% reduction in total capital here in 2020. Our stable cash flow and disciplined capital spending have driven down our leverage, maintaining a strong flexible balance sheet and investment grade credit metrics is very important to us both financially and operationally. We believe in investment grade credit rating keeps our cost of debt down, but also reduces the risk of the company in the eyes of equity investors, both current and prospective equity investors. And while we focus mostly on the long term positioning of the company on this slide, I do want to reiterate our 2020 guidance ranges remain unchanged but we do expect to come in at the lower end of the range for adjusted EBITDA both on growth and maintenance CapEx as well. Regarding adjusted EBITDA coming in towards the lower end of our guidance range, we see that, being at the lower end of the range is being driven by lower than expected volume from the oil basins that we talked about earlier, primarily the DJ Basin, and the much lower NGL margins we're currently experiencing. We have not assumed prolong shut-ins in our oil basins, nor have we assumed increased dry gas drilling. We also on the other hand, we don't assume that we will continue to enjoy the same degree of low maintenance and repair expenses that we enjoyed in the first quarter of this year. And so as we think about the - here for 2020, a number of variables laying out there as we talked about one pro long shut-ins, I would tell you so far we see those as fairly minimal but we do want to make sure you understand we are not expecting a wide scale or pro long shut-ins, in our guidance right now. We also as we mentioned don't have the uplift that we might see in the last half of the year as well. Moving on to CapEx expectations, we've been able to reduce CapEx due to lower than budget performance on our projects and execution, as well as lower producer activity, which has reduced the need for CapEx in a lot of our gathering operations. As a result, we now could see total capital spending come in below the low-end of our guidance range. However, as previously mentioned, we only had a very small amount of capital in our forecast for our NESE project since we were not going to allocate capital to the project until we received necessary permits. We remain confident that NESE will ultimately be approved and if this happens as soon as June, the other reductions mentioned will allow us to still be at the low end of our CapEx guided range. So just to clarify that, we do expect - we would be still at the low end of the range for CapEx if we are fortunate enough to get NESE moving here as soon as June. On the other hand, if we don't, we actually would come in below the current CapEx guided range that we have out there. In closing, we believe our business is very well positioned to benefit from continued demand growth in natural gas over the long term, and that our strong competitive position and conservative financial model makes us a resilient business that can deal with near term challenges in the market, while positioning us very well for the long term and the strong growth that's ahead. So with that, let's go ahead and transition to our Q&A session, and thank you again for joining us today.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Thanks for all the detail in the call this morning and just wanted to kind of build on some of those points there. I guess with your producer conversations I mean, it seems like natural gas prices, further out in the curve continues to climb here. And so, I'm just wondering if you could share a bit more on what type of operating leverage you think Williams would enjoy as gas prices improve and producer activity kicks up in response to what we've seen here?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes Jeremy, thank you. We know we have a wide variety of rates out there in the market. And so it kind of, obviously depends on where that volume is produced. And so I think, that's very dependent. The good news is I think, as we've demonstrated in the Northeast, we've got a very strong leverage where our costs that we've been able to really keep down even as volumes have grown. And so, if we see a lot of that growth occur in the Northeast, it's going to continue to be limited capital and limited incremental operating costs. So pretty good operating leverage to that. In the Haynesville, that's probably the other area that we would expect to respond here in the near term. And the operating leverage there is pretty similar. We've got, pretty low incremental operating costs, so a lot of revenue will drop to the bottom line there. So as we've said in the past, the rates out there on the dry gas gathering are in the $0.30 to $0.50 range. And so that's kind of what you can pick quite a bit of that from the bottom line in terms of the gas volumes that we have. If we happen to see some of that come through on across rich gas or processable gas, which we are seeing right now occur in the West Virginia, we're seeing volumes going up pretty nicely there. We obviously get a much higher margin on that just because we're offering additional services to that. So I would say that the lower operating leverage that we have is in the dry gas and little bit higher operating leverage against the rich gas or the process.
Jeremy Tonet:
That's helpful color thanks. And just want to kind of pivot if I could to Regional Energy Access. Seems like other pipes in the Northeast are continuing to face challenges getting built here. And just wondering what you could share with regard to how that project is developing and what opportunities to do this?
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning, Jeremy, this is Michael. Regional Energy Access continues to move toward a first filing early summer. We're still seeing a bit of a slowdown in the commercial execution of our final proceeding agreements and it directly attributable to COVID-19, and our inability to meet directly with the customers. But we are still executing those and we have gained momentum on that project and continue to. And just as a reminder, the majority of those facilities are in Pennsylvania. We think that's why we have a significant benefit and opportunity to get our project permit approvals in a timely fashion. And just as a reminder that we only have one facility that we project to be outside of Pennsylvania, and that's electric driven compressor station in New Jersey, which we feel like we won't have any permitting issues at all. So commercial activity is still underway, but we are in the midst of preparing the pre-filing documents and expect to have those and purchasing in this summer.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Your line is open.
Colton Bean:
Alan I think he just noted that you're seeing some decent trends there across the rich gas exposure in West Virginia and thinking about the system more broadly can you update us on what you're seeing across some of your more NGL exposed areas and condensate particularly?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Michael will take that.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, good morning Colton. We are seeing some concerns early on in regard to condensate production where the producers were chasing condensate earlier this year. I think if you go back and look at the Southwestern call occurred a few days ago, they feel like they're not going to have any shut-ins due to any condensate issues for the month of May. And that's obviously good for us. We're large customer of theirs - they are large customer of ours there in West Virginia. So we're pleased to see that announcement from them. There are definitely challenges in some of the areas that Eagle Ford certainly has some condensate challenges there. We are working with our customers there to find opportunities. We've had a team working on condensate opportunities to store condensate for customers. And we have opportunities to be able to do that for them, if they so choose to do that at our facilities around the country. And so, we've given a lot of options to our customers if they want to continue to produce and move those condensate volumes into our potential storage opportunities for them. On the NGL side, we aren't seeing as much pressure on the producers from a production standpoint as you would on the condensate side. So, we are seeing some increase. I think prices are actually moving higher and NGL prices are continuing to move stronger from where they were over the last several weeks. And so we’re not seeing as much pressure there as we are going to condensate that.
Colton Bean:
Got it, appreciate that. And then just on the National Grid, so I think you all commented that you think you could see approval there for Northeast supply as early as June? So I guess in terms of key hurdles to watch, what exactly is it that you guys are evaluating and then if we weren't to see approval by June, is the in-service, potential step change into 2022 or what sort of impacts would you expect there?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, I'll take that as well. So National Grid concluded their public comment meetings. They went virtual on the majority of those and had a two week extension in the deadline. So those concluded on May 1. And I think the resounding thing became very clear there is NESE project is the only opportunity for them to meet their long-term solutions. We recall the settlement agreement that they had with the state requires them to provide a long-term solution to the state by June and that long-term solution had to be in service by fall of 2021. And it's abundantly clear that NESE is the only opportunity to be able to do that. But the one thing I do want to mention, we watched the demand very closely across the U.S. and we certainly watched it very closely in the New York metropolitan area for natural gas. And we've seen virtually no impact due to the COVID-19 situation and if you weather normalize the demand up there and looks like a normal year. It's been a very warm year in January, February and March in the Northeast, April was about normal. And so when you weather normalize those demand picture across those four months, it looks just like a normal year for gas demand. So we see no impact there. It certainly wouldn't factor into any decisions that our customers would be making there. And you could make the argument that maybe commercial construction possibly could slowdown. But we do think from a long-term standpoint, natural gas demand is going to be increasing in the New York metropolitan area, just because of the amount of conversions of fuel oil still need to occur there, as well as the growth in infrastructure that's been built in New York City. We'll also say that, through this public comment process where we're prosecuting our permit, we've seen over 16,000 positive public comments come in to note both New York and New Jersey to support our project. There's more than 80 elected officials and community organizations that also support the NESE project that didn't make these public comments on the record. The upcoming deadlines on the 401 certifications that we have are May 16 in New York and June 5 in New Jersey. And so that's really the key markers that you should be watching out for here. And to answer the last part of your question, if we do not get those approvals in May and June for both New York and New Jersey, we'll have to go back and reevaluate with our customer what the expectation is there. But we certainly could refile those permits as we've had in the past and have those turned around fairly quickly in New York and New Jersey choose to do so.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Moreen with Mizuho. Your line is open.
Gabe Moreen:
Alan if I could just ask it seems like also producers are taking a different approach to their outlook for Nat gas prices next year and how much they've been willing to head to the 21 strip yet. Can you talk about maybe the insight you've got in terms of some of the private producers, whether it's Encino and the Utica or some of the producers are under Haynesville acreage and how they're treating 21 and whether they're - and what their outlook might be for having rigs and how soon that might happen?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would say, there's a lot of people kind of still licking their wounds a little bit from the low price environment that we seen here in the first quarter and that's not forgotten easily. And I think they want to make sure that they're going to be very disciplined around the capital and allowing themselves to make decent returns. And so, I'm not speaking to anyone producer here, just to be clear, but I do think that the very low prices that they've had to endure on both the gas and the NGL prices in some of these locations, has got them really thinking hard about how to move forward. And frankly, I think they see the fundamentals perhaps being even stronger with that kind of cost discipline to the degree that takes hold across space, which it seems to be frankly, that with the fundamentals will drive even higher prices. And so you look this morning, I think the January 2021 prices were up to 320 for January 2021. So they may be exactly right on that and thinking that the fundamentals will continue to drive those prices up. So I think they're really going to make sure that they're not just doing this to turn bits, but to make really good value for their shareholders and their owners and - they're going to be patient make sure that the price really allows them to make some decent returns. And frankly, that's the kind of discipline I think that'll make the space healthy over time.
Gabe Moreen:
Understood, thanks Alan. And then maybe John if I could get sort of updated thoughts from you and where you're thinking about debt markets now clearly things have improved quite a bit since a couple of weeks ago and the update call. And I guess just your thoughts around taking some of off the revolver when you put those earlier maturities on the revolver?
John Chandler:
Yes, no those rates have as significantly improved. And a little painful from where they were in February. It is incredibly low, right, but as we look today, the rates are very attractive for Williams and for Transco. And so it's, we'll watch the markets and we feel like there's a good opportunity. We'll certainly take advantage of that and try to get some off of our revolver. We still have 1.7 billion on a revolver, but I'd say we also have $700 million in cash. So we've got a very strong liquidity position our revolver again is $4.5 billion and doesn't mature until 2023. So we could be patient, but just to be clear, rates are attractive and our bond spreads that really traded in the last couple of weeks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kania with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Alex Kania:
Just a question, I guess just on Gulf of Mexico. First, I guess just thinking about making sure that we understand how the sensitivities and volumes work, it sounds like again, you feel like from large producers, there's not going to be a big move. But again, just wondering if volumes do move does that directly impact your bottom line or is there some protection within Teva contracts work on the cost base basis? And then related to that maybe, if there's any impact on capital related to I guess the Whale delay that Shell announced a couple days ago. And second question is just thoughts on the NWP 12 permit? Do you use that typically for your construction activities, is that going to cause any complications for any planning that you plan on gathering or transmission over the next few months until we get some resolution on that? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I'll take the first question there broadly on the deepwater and then have Michael answer the Whale and NWP 12 questions. On the deepwater for the most part, there are some MVCs and some fixed payments out there, but for the most part, because a lot of MVCs are so much below the actual volumes that people are sitting at today. You should consider our deepwater business to be pretty well driven by volume so both on the oil and the gas side. So I would - it's not that complicated out there for the most part, it's saying that there are places like the Northwood and places like that, that were true up on an annual basis, but you wouldn't see that in a quarterly basis. So anyway, so newer assets like Northwood tend to have those and the older assets those MVCs have, we've gotten our capital back in those MVCs or those fixed payments have gone away, just like Gulfstar. As we mentioned the fixed payments on that terminated the majority of the fixed payments terminated in May of last. So Mike if you take the Whale and NWP.
Micheal Dunn:
Sure Alan thanks. On Whale, we actually before all of the oil price shock occurred. We had actually placed some orders for some equipment and we've got more favorable timing terms on those orders and so our capital would actually be reduced to this year. It's just the timing issue for the most part, though prior to any announcements came from the Whale customers. Since the Whale customers have made their announcements, we've had conversations with them. They've not asked us to change course in any fashion with regard to our current undertaking of engineering, and procurement of materials to support their project, although they have announced the NESE delay. So right now it's a steady issue goes in regard to our performance under our reimbursement agreement with those Whale customers. And on the Nationwide 12 question, as you all probably are well aware of the Keystone XL pipeline in Montana, has suspended authorization of the Nationwide toll permit for that project, and it certainly is something that we're all looking at across the industry. The core engineers has stated they're not authorizing any new projects right now under the Nationwide 12, but they've not shutdown any projects that we know and certainly none of ours that were being performed under the nationwide 12. We don't think this is going to be a significant issue to Williams and for example in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, they don't even use the Nationwide 12 Permits, they're certainly not an impact at all. There anywhere that we were going to use those this year on new optimizations. It was just small pad connections and our gathering systems for the most part, and we could pivot to a different permitting team for those and achieve our permitting goals for those projects. And so as of now, we've got no project shutdown. And every core engineer's office that has jurisdiction over our permits, each one of those jurisdictions, we've had conversations with them and they said they have no intention of shutting down any projects that are currently underway with Nationwide 12 Permit.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with SunTrust. Your line is open.
Tristan Richardson:
Really appreciate all the commentary this morning. Just a follow-up question on the Northeast G&P I mean, with the volumes we've seen in 1Q and your commentary, perhaps suggesting even the rich gas volumes remain resilient. We think about the 1.4 billion in EBITDA number you've talked about in the past, should we think about is still a relevant number in the current environment in Northeast G&P?
Micheal Dunn:
This is Michael I’ll take that. I think we had temporary expectations on growth. They're coming into this year last year that's why you saw significant reduction in our capital. But if you do a run rate on the Northeast I think we were at 370 EBITDA this quarter. And we would expect to see some continued flat performance if you will through the majority of the Northeast PA production areas, as everyone knows Cabot's talk about going into maintenance mode with flat production for the year. We're seeing some growth in the Bradford still our cost of service agreements up there. And we do think some of the areas in West Virginia will be a more of a bright spot in the coming several quarters probably towards the end of the year and next year. And so, I think we do have some line in sight ultimately to be able to get to that 1.4. It might be a little bit delayed from where we were hoping, but we had those expectations input coming into this year.
Tristan Richardson:
Helpful, thank you. And just a brief follow-up, with respect to Bluestem with the fractionator online now, can you see contributions from any of that capacity today, or any fractionation contributions would come when Bluestem comes online for the next year?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, assuming that Frac 7 and Targa is controlled is taking product, we will get revenue from that. So it is - as we understand, and so we will get revenue from that prior boosting coming online.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Your line is open.
Shneur Gershuni:
Thank you for the extended update today, and a lot of my questions have been asked to answer, but maybe to follow up on Gabe's question a little bit here, but in a different way. When we think about the producers in the Northeast, a lot of them have - are not really well capitalized coming into this excluding Targa, which I realize is a very important customer of yours. Are we sure that the higher gas prices ensures that we get higher volumes or a higher volumetric opportunity for Williams. Was there a chance that they sit there and just sort of take their production ideas and enjoy the high prices and not accelerate CapEx, just to kind of try to think about how we should think about it from a volumetric perspective in '21, just sort of given the starting place from where the producers work?
Alan Armstrong:
Are you speaking just to…
Shneur Gershuni:
Northeast.
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say as you would think a variety of producers and financial drivers out there, some are well hedged, and are taking advantage of the cost low - available cost structures to them out right now and growing very successfully and not really missing a beat. On the other hand, you have players for us like Chevron up there that has announced the sales process, and kind of pull back on their drilling operations. So, that's probably the extreme to that. But as I mentioned earlier, I do think that some producers are going to sit back and wait to see how firm these prices will get. They keep moving in the right direction. And I think they're waiting to - I think they believe that the fundamentals are on their side. And so if you translate all of the negative discussion around oil and shut-ins and demand destruction, if you believe that strongly, then you have to turn around and believe that gas is going to have a big call on these gas corrected basins. And so I think that's what you're seeing and some of them having quite a bit of confidence in fundamentals and are waiting to make sure that those fundamentals show up in the way of price where they commit to anything, but be clear, these are all - there is not - I can't point to a large producer that we deal with out there that I don't have quite a bit of respect for the way they think about this. They just have different motivations and drivers out there in front of them. But they all I would say are always in the case of planning. So they're not sitting back right now, even though it may appear that way. They're not sitting back on their haunches and not planning for what looks like opportunity for growth in the future. But I think they're only going to pull those triggers when they're confident that these prices are something that they can lean into. So I would say what we are seeing pretty visibly is a lot of planning for growth, but not necessarily a commitment to that growth just yet. And but I think there is a lot of belief in the fundamentals that exist out there. And again, it's kind of hard to believe in all the carnage on the oil side and not believe that on the pool on the gas side.
Shneur Gershuni:
Maybe as a follow-up on that. Maybe this is difficult to speculate about. But do you see some scenarios where maybe some of them - just given how difficult capital access is right now for them, that they potential to JV and do like drill co JVs and so forth with private equity is? Do you kind of see that is a potential avenue for some of them?
Alan Armstrong:
I think more of that - they are not necessarily the Northeast producers. I think we'll see more of that in the Haynesville area where there is a lot of easy acreage to go hit a lot of private companies that are even less capitalized in some cases. But they've got some very - it’s not a whole lot of risk involved in the development there, and certainly not a lot of risk in getting the gas to the markets. And so I think we'll see a little more of that kind of activity like these teams.
John Chandler:
One thing I do want to go back to the question I was asked earlier about Northeast EBITDA coming in, I believe the question was about $1.4 billion. And I would tell you, coming in earlier this year, we felt like, perhaps could come in under that level, just because Cabot was going back to maintenance mode and we saw Chevron signaling, they were going to slow some of their activity down. But again, remember we had a really good first quarter and our volumes are really good, really strong. And of course, things are starting to look better for the Northeast in the latter half of the year as well. So as we look at it today, we do believe we'll be operating above $1.4 billion in the Northeast for the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish:
Just in the Haynesville, can you maybe just give us a breakdown on the customer mix there? How much is Chesapeake versus privates, and then in terms of potential growth in the Haynesville if it does occur, would you expect it to come more from the public or private producers in the region?
Alan Armstrong:
I'm going to have Chad Zamarin, who has been dealing with a lot of the opportunities out there to address them.
Chad Zamarin:
In the Haynesville, Chesapeake still about 70% of our volume. So if you've looked back about three years that would have been a much higher percentage even than that. So we've seen pretty rapid growth in third party volumes from primarily a private producers. Fine is one of those producers [indiscernible] as a producer that's not private, but we've been picking up additional activity province. To the question kind of earlier, we have seen those producers in the Haynesville taking advantage of the current pricing environment and extend their hedging and to Alan's point around access to capital for drilling in the Haynesville, ability to hedge out. Now, many of these producers are hedging more than 24 months out and those Haynesville wells are very much front end weighted from a value recovery perspective. And so those Haynesville producers have a pretty, pretty good opportunity to lock in their production plans over the next couple of years. So the recovery of kind of the back end of the price curve is really created a very stabilizing effect for ongoing development. In Haynesville, we actually think we'll see additional growth as a result.
Praneeth Satish:
Right, thanks. And then can maybe just rank order, which of your oil directed regions would get hit the hardest from potential shut-ins? And then how many quarters would you expect the settings to persist for, is this a one quarter, two quarter for the balance of 2020?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, this is Michael, I will take that. From a [indiscernible] Eagle Ford is probably the highest at least in our acreage area because of the condensate that the customers are producing there, but we are protected by an MVC, for example, on the Chesapeake contracts, so even if the volumes do decline, we do have an MVC protection under letting them which we think would be very strong for us from a protective revenue there regard to that. So I'd say the Eagle Ford is probably the highest, the DJ is probably one as well, where they're also seeing some of things like gravity production, they are probably condensating oil that they're kicking in the DJ. So we would also have some months of work shutting risks there. Gulf of Mexico, you've got some of the smaller independence in the Gulf of Mexico. That's probably next on the list. But so far, we've not seen any of the large producers in the Gulf shut-in any production.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I will now turn it back over to Mr. Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, well, thank you all very much for joining us this morning. A great quarter. We're really excited to see the execution that we had in the quarter and we think the fundamentals are very strong for our business in the way we're positioned out in front of us. So thanks again for joining us this morning.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams Companies Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2019 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn today’s call over to Mr. Brett Krieg, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Brett Krieg:
Thanks, Carey. Good morning, and thank you for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us on the call today are our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler, our General Counsel, Lane Wilson; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin. In our presentation materials, you will find the disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. And so with that, I’ll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, great. Thanks, Brett. Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we discuss our fourth quarter and the full-year 2019 financial performance and our key investor focus areas. So let’s move right into the presentation and take a look at our strong year-end performance. Here on Slide 2. 2019 was another year of strong predictable growth and solid execution. This is now the third year in a row we have exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range on key financial metrics. This highly reliable and predictable performance is the result of continuously improving execution by our operating teams on many fronts
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will be from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off with, I guess, some of the strategic transactions that you guys had done in recent years and kind of some sales and JVs. And I was wondering if you could comment, I guess, on the ability to kind of capture those type of opportunities going forward here and what that could mean for hitting kind of the 4.2 leverage ratio that you guys are targeting there? If you’re able to do that, I guess, it’s quicker, or if that doesn’t come together, how long do you think it would take you to hit kind of a target 4.2?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Jeremy, good morning, and thank you for the question. I would just say, first of all, we’re encouraged by the attraction to the kind of assets that we have, which have long histories of cash flow. And so that’s very different than some of the other assets out there that aren’t as well-positioned or more speculative in nature of cash flow. So we think, assets that are stable and have a long history of cash flow are pretty important in this market today. And so we’re very encouraged by that. I would just say, the growth that we have and the continued cash retention that we have in the business, right now, we certainly have our eyes on that 4.2 even without that. But we look at the further transaction as a way to accelerate ourselves towards that, and likely well under that with some – with any significance to the size of those transactions.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, thanks. And just want to see, I guess, with regards to producer activity and kind of conversations with producers today versus where they stood at the Analyst Day, just wondering if you could help us think through a little bit more on how that has changed? Has it been notable, or not as notable? I guess, I’m trying to think how that translates into guidance. Should we be thinking about the midpoint, or does this kind of bring more towards the lower-end of guidance, or any color you could provide there would be helpful?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question, Jeremy, and thanks for asking that. I know that’s an issue on lot of people’s mind. First of all, I would just say, obviously, we have a very diverse business and some things go South on us and some things go positive. If you think back to last year and you think about the commodity price assumptions that we had versus how the year actually wound up, we outperformed as, again, good evidence of how things can go our way to offset other negatives that occurred during the year. So I would just say, we do have a large portfolio. I also, though, as I mentioned in my comments, and I think this is really important for people to understand. If you look, for instance, a lot of concern around the Northeast volumes and if you look and took the combined – took the average of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, you would see that if we – if all we did was repeat that, we would come in above our guidance level for the Northeast for next year, and I know there has been a lot of concern about that. If you took and just took four times the fourth quarter, assuming the fourth quarter held where it was and didn’t see growth – any growth at all, you’d see a – we would beat pretty significantly that guidance that we had laid out for the Northeast. And so that, I would say, combined with a couple of things, one is the fact that our fourth quarter did come in stronger than we were expecting for the Northeast. When we were laying guidance out in – at Analyst Day, we were working off a forecast that was actually exceeded for the fourth quarter. So we’re starting off better than we start than we expected to. Secondly, we’ve seen January and February volumes now. And so we’ve got pretty good confidence about where actual volumes are. And then finally, I would say, we took the cost that we took out that we’ve worked on and planned around during 2019, most of those costs and the impact of those costs actually started rolling out very late in the fourth quarter of 2019. So we will have the benefit of that working with us going into 2020. So I would just say a lot of positive things that are occurring as well with some deepwater production that’s coming on a little faster than we would have expected as well. And volumes actually, again, exceeding where we thought they would be at this point in time when we laid out at Analyst Day. So those are the things that have given us the confidence on our guidance being maintained as we sit here today.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, great. That’s it for me. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse.
Spiro Dounis:
Good morning, everyone. Alan, I appreciate your comments around G&P being one of the more protective components of the value chain. But I guess, when we think about quantifying a potential impact, is there a way for you to help us quantify how much of your volumes or margin could be considered maybe above market or maybe subject to renegotiation? You’ve been pretty proactive on this front so far. So not sure how much your portfolio is, in theory, still at risk? And if you’re receiving any sort of inbound inquiry from customers to do a blend and extend?
Alan Armstrong:
No, we are not – I think we have – we’ve completed all negotiations that anybody has entertained with us on issues right now, particularly with Chesapeake. We settled that in the Eagle Ford, and I think you’ll see this year, I think you’ll see that some of the assumptions that were made by some of the analysts about where that was going are going to be proven very wrong about their assumptions on that for the Eagle Ford. And I would say this in terms of incenting further drilling, we’ve been working pretty actively. Our commercial teams have been working very actively in places like the Haynesville to incent drilling on acreage that’s dedicated to us, but not otherwise being drilled. And that does require us putting an incentive rate out for new drilling, but it doesn’t affect the rates of the existing business. So it’s just a way to attract new drilling dollars against acreage that Chesapeake, for instance, likely wouldn’t get to, if we weren’t out working transactions to help make that happen.
Spiro Dounis:
Understood. And then some of the common pushback we received from time to time just around the growth backlog and your ability to spend, I guess, enough to really on those demand pull projects to drive that 5% to 7% growth. And so in other words, I think people are struggling with maybe the scope of these projects and their ability to grow that $5 billion EBITDA base. And so are there opportunities beyond the ones you list that maybe we’re not appreciating, or is G&P actually still an ongoing major contributor to growth even at the lower CapEx levels?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think, certainly, we had a great year of growth this last year and on an adjustment for both asset sales and margins, where our growth was a lot better than we would have just built into the plan in terms of volumes and fee-based rates last year, a lot of that came from good cost control and really good execution on our projects, bringing them on a little earlier than expected. But I would say, the things that I think the market tends to miss is the things like the DJ basin growth that continues to come on very nicely for us, the Bluestem project coming on for us, the deepwater, which is really coming back, I think, 95% of the rigs now available – floating rigs available are in under contract now in the deepwater. And so we are seeing a lot and expecting a lot coming from that area as well. So, these projects coming on in Transco are pretty powerful, but that’s not what we’re totally dependent on for our growth by any stretch of imagination.
Spiro Dounis:
Very helpful. Thanks, Alan.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi, good morning, everyone. I’m just wondering if we can revisit the guidance commentary. It sounds to me that you’re fairly confident with the midpoint of your guidance, despite producers being shifting over to maintenance mode at this stage right now. You’ve talked about some of the pushes and pulls, including some of the cost reductions that you’ve put through that that gives you some confidence in that. If this were to – maintenance mode were to maintain itself into next year, are there any more levers that you can pull on the cost side and on the CapEx side to sort of maintain cash flow generation, where you expected to be this year or even potentially driving higher next year?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. We certainly have quite a bit of capital still in plan. And despite the narrative that’s out there, we still have producers that are still pushing ahead with the growing plan, some of those based on hedges that they have and some based on contracts that they have. But we still have some pretty big obligations to keep up with that. I know, the market is – the narrative is very different than what you’re seeing. But in reality, right now, we do have that capital built in, because those producers are moving ahead right now with their activities, as they told us they would. And so – and those come with obligation on their part, so we have to be ready with that capital that’s in there. If that were to change for whatever reason, then that might shift that back. But I think we should be clear that we do have customers continuing to have growth and plan growth in the Northeast. And so, we’ll wait and see, obviously. But right now, it’s getting pretty late in the process for them to be pulling back from those plans that they’ve laid out for the year. And, again, I think a lot of that is based on hedges that they have in place that continue to support those activities. So I don’t want to get into each individual customers, because that’s up to them to lay out their plans and communicate that. But we are responding to the very detailed planning processes that we work within the customers, and we do have capital in the plan to help drive that. And so we – like we had last year, if we need to turn that back quickly, we certainly would. But there is quite a bit of activity that’s going on out there, despite what the narrative is.
Shneur Gershuni:
And would you feel that you would have more flexibility on 2021, if this were to maintain itself?
Alan Armstrong:
Shneur, you’re breaking up just a little bit. Could you repeat that?
Shneur Gershuni:
Sure. Yes, would you have more flexibility on capital and cost structure for 2021, if this trend sort of maintained itself? Obviously, it’s late in the year to be adjusting things for 2020, but I was more thinking about 2021? Do you have a lot of levers that you can still pull there if this environment maintained itself?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, we certainly do. And I think part of our effort to combine the West and the Northeast G&P area is, because we do expect to move. I mean, that area has been growing grammatically. It sounds really easy for us to sit here in our offices and think about the kinds and talk about the growth off of spreadsheet. But the reality is the very, very hard work of our employees and the teams out there trying to keep up with all that growth. They’ve done a remarkable job on that. But it does take a lot of people and it takes – when you’re investing in the capital, it puts a lot of costs onto the operating teams as well, because there’s a lot of change going on that they’re having to manage. So the more mature in a slower growth environment absolutely allows us to go after and increase our operating margin in an area. And us combining our West and our Northeast from a management perspective is allowing us to get after some of that.
Shneur Gershuni:
That makes great sense. And as a follow-up question, there’s some new PHMSA rules out. Just wondering if you’ve looked at it and whether this could kick off potentially a rate-based investment cycle, or do you constantly replace pipe and it’s really irrelevant to all these new rules?
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning. This is Micheal. I’ll take that one. So on our transmission systems, we’ve been ahead of the curve there for a long time and maintaining our commitment to keeping our assets safe and reliable. And I would say, with the timelines that have been laid out in the new rules, there’s a long runway to compliance there. So I think that’s going to allow not only ourselves, but the industry to manage that pretty well within our maintenance CapEx and our normal OpEx. And so I’m not too concerned about having that drive any additional rate cases.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay. And then one final question, Alan, in your comments about the NESE project, if that were to come to fruition, would that be considered a positive ESG benefit to Williams, given your comments about how many cars you take off the road?
Alan Armstrong:
Shneur, I’m sorry, you broke up, again. On which project were you asking that question?
Shneur Gershuni:
With respect to NESE, you’d given a whole argument about how many cars who takes off the road and so forth. Just wondering like as we sort of think about ESG, is that something that would be viewed as a positive benefit?
Alan Armstrong:
I would certainly hope so. But it’s – I think there’s a lot of uncertainty right now within the rating systems within ESG as to where we get that. We would certainly pronounce that as a win, because it certainly is going to impact the environment, and we certainly would be taking a big part in making that possible. So we certainly would want to talk about that. I would say even – perhaps even larger than that and more directly related to that would be the emissions reduction projects on Transco that we still intend to follow through with some negotiations lingering post the rate case on that. But that would be very dramatic conditions – reductions. And it’s exactly the kind of thing that I think the whole industry certainly, Williams and the whole industry is really capable of reducing emissions dramatically. And if the focus got to be on actually reducing emissions, and not just trying to stop fossil fuels, there’s a lot to be accomplished by the energy industry in terms of emissions reductions, and we expect to play a big part of that.
Shneur Gershuni:
All right, perfect. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate the color today, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Tristan Richardson from SunTrust. Richardson, your line is live. Please be sure you’re not on mute. Al right. Next question will be from T.J. Schultz from RBC Capital Markets.
T.J. Schultz:
Great, thanks. Just first in the Gulf, you’ve got some big projects in 2023, 2024 timeframe. But you also listed off in the prepared remarks a number of projects that may be more near-term potentially. So just any tiebacks assumed in the next year or two, that may be additive to EBITDA, or could offset some slowing G&P growth?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. T.J., great question. First of all, one of the impacts this year will be the growth in Appomattox. So remember, our Norphlet pipeline that we put online last year, that is finally starting to ramp up pretty dramatically as expected. Shell has got some big plans out there on Appomattox, so we’re really excited about that. So even though the construction work is there’s nothing new on that, the actual volume growth on that we expect to be pretty nice this year. On top of that, we tied in two prospects on discovery last year, that were kind of midway through the year. Those will contribute to discovery this year. And then finally, on Gulfstar, Hess’ Esox project was brought online well ahead of schedule. They did a great job of executing on that project, and really made for nice returns for both themselves. And, of course, we make nice fees on that business as well. So that was well ahead of our schedule, our plan as well. There’s also work going on by Kosmos around some of our areas with their Kodiak 2 well that they’re working on right now. So a lot of activity out there, and we’re very fortunate to have a lot of that activity directly around our assets out there.
T.J. Schultz:
Okay, great. Just for follow-up, maybe a question for John. You mentioned at the Analyst Day the ability to lower some interest costs. Just what are you seeing today as the ability to lower interest costs for maturities in 2020 and 2021 that get refinanced? And does your guidance assume that you pay down any of that maturing debt with cash, or is that more dependent on asset sales?
Alan Armstrong:
That’s more dependent on asset sales. Our guidance assumes a refinancing. But I will tell you, we do have $1.5 billion of our debt maturing in March at a net rate of 5.2%. We could refinance that today, for example, 10-year – at a 10-year rate of 3.3%. So we like the rate environment right now. I will tell you though, we’re holding tight and waiting you. I think it’s no secret that we’ve said we are looking at potential or opportunities for asset sales or selling interest in some of our assets. And I – we don’t want to get in front of that by paying down debt that otherwise could be paid down with cash received through one of those transactions. But I will tell you, our guidance and forecast didn’t include asset sales.
T.J. Schultz:
Perfect.
Alan Armstrong:
And so we could see interest savings just through the refinancing and obviously much more significant savings if we actually did pay that down through the – through an asset sale. Operator, are you still there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Colton Bean of Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co.
Colton Bean:
Good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Colton Bean:
Alan, you had mentioned that the volume trends that you are seeing thus far in 2020, can you give us or just frame the activity levels that you’re seeing in some of those primary basins in the West? I know we spent a lot of time in the Northeast, but just how you’re seeing some of the West basins and maybe how that compares to your guidance that you laid out in December?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Micheal, do you want to take that?
Micheal Dunn:
Sure. We’re seeing really good results in the Eagle Ford right now coming in, starting the year as well as Haynesville are well ahead of where we thought they would be at this time of year. A little bit challenged in the Wyoming area with the weather. There has been some pretty severe weather in Wyoming this year that’s challenged the Wamsutter area as can typically happen at this time of year. But overall, I think, we’re going to see an increase of what we anticipated so far here in the first quarter from what our forecast should.
Colton Bean:
Yes. And so it sounds like the Rockies segment there hasn’t been impacted as much as you would have expected from the natural gas decline?
Micheal Dunn:
No, we’re still seeing good production coming out of the Piceance. For example, as Alan talked about earlier, we have some incentive rates out there with our customer, where they are continuing to drill in the Piceance, for example, and getting good results. And our DJ Basin is really performing very well with our Rocky Mountain midstream asset, and so we’re very pleased with that and also capturing the NGLs coming off the processing there that’s going down OPPL pipeline system.
Colton Bean:
Got it. That’s helpful. And then just on Leidy South, given some of the moving pieces around producer plans, has there been any discussions with anchor shippers that would impact that Q4 2021 timing, or is that solely contingent on the permitting process at this point?
Micheal Dunn:
No, it’s solely dependent upon the permitting process at this point, and we got our environmental assessment earlier than anticipated. So everything looks to be in good shape there, had no conversations at all about slowing that project down with our customers
Colton Bean:
Well said. I appreciate the time. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Derek Walker from Bank of America.
Derek Walker:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Derek Walker:
Alan, at the Investor Day, you mentioned a return on invested capital around 12% for projects over the last several years. And as you look to sort of allocate capital to the highest returning projects, it seems like it’s a – for this year, it’s a mix of Northeast, regulated transmission, also some deepwater, where you have some operating leverage. So I guess, relative to that 12% number, do you see at least in 2020 or at least over the next couple of years getting above that 12% number, or is it just going to be a mix, or how should we think about that relative to the 12% number you guys been able to achieve over the last several years?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. Well, first of all, I would remind you that our individual project returns are often – well, in fact, they are well above that number. But that’s working against things like deepwater declines, the declines in basins like the Barnett and certainly deferred revenue step down and things like that. So there is a natural decline in some pieces of the business that those returns have to offset. And – but I would say that our current returns on projects are as good or better than what we’ve had in our previous mix of projects as we’ve tightened the capital budget. Obviously, as you tighten the capital, you’re allocating stuff out. And so I would expect that number to continue to be as good or better than we’ve had on it on an overall number across the whole portfolio.
Derek Walker:
Thanks. That’s it for me.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill:
Good morning. Alan, you’ve talked about that the Gulf of Mexico assets are well-positioned to win new business. Can you quantify what kind of EBITDA contribution you would expect over the next several years and what potential and the CapEx associated to get there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Becca, good question. A lot of the capital, what we’ll start spending some this year, as we mentioned, on things like Whale. And so in some – versus an Anchor prospect, so I’m just going to give you the kind of ends of the spectrum here. On one hand, pretty significant capital required on Whale now, because the volumes came in a lot larger than we expected to and the producers wanted plenty of flexibility in their capacity. And so that project is going to take more capital. On the other hand, Anchor, we had laid a sled down, when we built that Keathley Canyon Connector, we had put sled down, so that we could make those connections fairly inexpensively and the producers generally are providing that capital. And so in that case – and – but we’re not going to make return on that investment capital. So we’re going to make an existing rate. So in one case, I would tell you, Whale, very significant revenue contributions and EBITDA contributions, that will be in the 10% to 15% just by itself across the whole deepwater. And then things like Anchor would be inside of that, because it’s not – smaller. You also, as we’ve also mentioned, we have Ballymore. It’s a very large prospect. That project that Chevron and their partners are trying to decide if it’s going to be so big, coupled with some other prospects that they have in the area, they have to put a new floater in. If they had to do that, then we would have to invest new capital. Best thing for us is that they find a way to fit that on to blind faith. And that would be pure incremental EBITDA without any new capital. So it’s still in the mix. But I can tell you based on both volume and EBITDA, we think it’s very significant. In terms of the total percentage increase in the deepwater, it is going to be a very significant step up from our current EBITDA levels in the area.
Becca Followill:
Alan, I asked the question, because it’s hard for us to give credit for that and evaluation when I have no idea what significant means in terms of EBITDA. I mean – or what the CapEx is to get there?
Alan Armstrong:
Agreed. And I think I would just be cautious on our part. What we have laid out, Becca – so I’ll be clear, what we have laid out is that our contracts allow us to get the existing rate on our current systems, plus a 12% after-tax return on any incremental capital that we spend. So that ought to give you a pretty good read, if you take the rate in the Gulf West areas, for instance, you ought to be able to see a pretty nice increase in that. Obviously, we don’t like to spell out exactly what our deals are with our customers. So we’re not trying to be elusive as much as we are respectful of the relationships that we have with those customers. But if you look at the volume, for instance, on Whale and what’s been quoted out there, you’ll see it looks very much like Perdido, which is what we already gather in the Gulf West. And so this would be effectively a doubling of what we get in the Gulf West there today. So it is very significant. But, again, we’re – we’ve got contracts in place that we’re not going to lay out exactly what those are. But if you look at total reserve additions versus our current reserves tied up that are out there, you would see that we’re – on both the Gulf East and the Gulf West that we’re coming close to doubling those connected reserves out there.
Becca Followill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be from Danilo Juvane from BMO Capital.
Danilo Juvane:
Hey, Alan, good morning. Given that we are in an environment of slower EBITDA growth, how are you thinking about managing leverage and dividend growth? And at what point do you see those two converging longer-term?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. Certainly, as we mentioned this year, our coverage came up. And so we certainly – our DCF came in quite a bit stronger than we had planned. And certainly, those are the things that we’re looking at in terms of dividend growth. And certainly, our – as our debt comes down and our interest payments come down, we’ll see continued improvement in that as well. So I would say, the capital allocation question remains out there for us, as we look at some of these larger transactions that we’re going to look to. But the dividend coverage that we have today is allowing us to have excess cash. And so we don’t see anything really changing on that front. But as we get into some of these higher-growth areas as we get into 2022 and 2023 that are not requiring a lot of capital. That’s going to build some pretty nice coverage even further than what we have today. So I’m not going to give you a very direct answer on that, frankly, because that’s a Board level decision in terms of what our growth rate on the dividend is. And I would just say this year, the factors that were considered were how much our DCF had grown and the other uses of capital that were available to us.
Danilo Juvane:
Gotcha. I guess, my next question is for John. To the extent that you did have some impairments during the fourth quarter, any details on how much that impacts DD&A going forward?
John Chandler:
Yes. So the biggest impairment we had in the fourth quarter was on constitution. We weren’t appreciating that at this point since it’s in construction. So that won’t really have an impact on our depreciation calcs.
Danilo Juvane:
Great. Thanks for that. Last one for me. To the extent that the Texas RRC came out with a report on flaring this week, do you guys have any thoughts on some of the commentary that they laid out?
Alan Armstrong:
No, I’m sorry. We couldn’t quite hear that on this thing. Could you try that again
Danilo Juvane:
Sorry, I was mentioning that the Texas RRC came out with a report on flaring earlier this week. It may have some implications for your systems in Texas. I wanted to see what your thoughts were on what they came out within the report?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, thank you. Yes, we’ve actually been pretty engaged with the Railroad Commission on this issue and have attended several conferences, trying to come up with the right solution. And so, as always, we think the Railroad Commission is going to be very constructive. And work to address the concerns that are out there, I would tell you, the producer community, I think, for the most part, is being very responsible on that issue as well. And we were proud to see Chesapeake in there as one of the top producers in terms of limited flaring. And, of course, we provide those services to them. And so that indicates that our reliability is strong when they’re not having to flare, that tells you our reliability is strong on our service providing. And so we’re proud to see that when our customers are on that list. And so I would just say, we think that there’s going to be an effort to both at the regulatory level and both by producers themselves to continue to reduce flaring. And we think that’s important for the industry. And we are very supportive of that and we’ll continue to push the industry to do the right thing on that front.
Danilo Juvane:
Thank you. Those are all my questions.
Operator:
Thank you. This is all the time we have for today’s questions. Thank you for your participation at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thank you. And just would close with saying we’re really pleased with the way the year ended up. We had a lot of headwinds, asset sales commodity prices that we overcame and delivered a great year. And I think that’s really attributable to the wide variety of services and businesses that we operate. And we’re very excited about the growth that is reemerging in several areas and the opportunities that we are working hard to capture. And so we appreciate your continued interest in the company, and thank you for joining us today.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Williams Companies Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Brett Krieg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Brett Krieg:
Thanks Britney. Good morning and thank you for your interest in the Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler, our General Counsel, Lane Wilson; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great, thanks Brett. And good morning to everyone and thank you for joining us. And as we discuss our third quarter financial performance and we also will hit on the key investor focus areas of the day as we usually do. So let's move right into the presentation and take a look at our third quarter results. On Slide 2, we provided clear view of our year-over-year financial performance and as you can see, we continue to enjoy steady growth in our key measures despite the asset sales that we continue to execute on and in fact I'm very pleased to say that our third quarter records for our fee-based revenues, our adjusted EBITDA and of course these were driven by record operated gathering volumes which exceeded 13 Bcf per day in the period and as well record contracted capacity on a regulated gas pipeline and these combined overwhelm the small amount of remaining NGL-margin exposure that was certainly low and in fact about as low as I can remember that we've seen in terms of margin contribution from the quarter. So really nice to see our strategy of focusing on fee-based revenues and growing that are, coming through at a time where we had a low cycle on commodities but again, we powered through that with the growth in fee-based revenues. So, taking it from the top and see here our cash flow from operations, which increased 15% for the quarter and 16% year-to-date and this continues to outpace our CapEx and as you can see on a year-to-date basis our CFFO has exceeded our CapEx by over $630 million. On the next line, we show 7% and 8% year-to-date growth for adjusted EBITDA and I'll have more to say about adjusted EBITDA performance in the next couple of slides and then as you can see, we posted continued growth in adjusted earnings per share of 8% for the third quarter and 23% year-to-date even stronger than our adjusted EBITDA increases. And on DCF, we were up about 8% and 16% year to date with growth in the per share calculation and continued strong dividend coverage ratio of 1.79 which continues to exceed both our 2018 coverage ratio as well as our guidance for 2019. And you can see our ending leverage metric for the quarter was 4.47 demonstrating that we are on target with the four or five guidance that we have for the year-end. So overall, nice improvement in our various earnings and cash flow metrics despite the impact of almost $2 billion in asset sales affecting the comparison and much lower commodity price environment that we had in 2018. So now let's move on to Slide 3 to discuss the main business drivers of our year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. Here on Slide 3 where we compare 3Q '19 to 3Q '18. The adjusted EBITDA increased about 7% or almost 10% if you adjust for the bigger transactions that affect the year-over-year comparison. On the left side of the slide, you can see in gray that we have unfavorable $47 million comparability adjustment which includes removing the adjusted EBITDA from the various asset sale transactions completed during the last 12 months and then netting out the $13 million favorable item reflecting the addition of the incremental 38% UEOM ownership interest. And so that's the additional interest that were not consolidating in the Utica East Ohio Midstream business. And so normalizing for those items, you see adjusted EBITDA growing $112 million or almost 10% on this comparison. So now moving over to look at the financial performance of our continuing business, similar to the first two quarters of this year. Atlantic Gulf led with a 28% increase in adjusted EBITDA driven by topline Transco revenue growth from new expansion projects, of course the Atlantic Sunrise and Gulf Connector were two that were powerful in this comparison and additionally our third quarter 2019 Transco results reflect about $44 million of adjustments related to the settlement were breached in our Transco rate case and of course this recorded through both revenue and other income and expenses. I know there's a lot of questions on that. We look forward to being able to shed more light on that at our upcoming Analyst Day but I will have a little more to say here as we hit slide 5. Lastly, we did see a temporary drop in our Deepwater volumes associated with tropical storms and producers maintenance activities but Deepwater production is back to normal for most producers now in the fourth quarter and in fact growing in the Gulf East due to new production from Hudak to Northwood ramp up that continues. So we continue to be very impressed with the activity in the deal flow around our assets in the deepwater and that's another item that of course will spend quite a bit of time at our upcoming Analyst Day on. Next up, looking at the Northeast G&P area. We see a 17% increase in year-over-year adjusted EBITDA driven by an increase of about 1.3 Bcf a day were 17% higher gathering volumes and higher gathering fees associated with expansion projects. Volume increases were led by the Susquehanna Supply Hub and the Bradford areas which grew about 850 million cubic feet per day and we also saw double-digit growth rate in all of our other operated Northeast franchises. So overall, our operated assets in the Northeast continue to see very strong growth in volumes across the board. And finally in the West, we saw about a 16% decline driven by about a $29 million decrease in revenues for our Barnett gathering business. This decrease was associated with the end of some minimum volume commitments in that area and a related step down in deferred revenue amortization. So that was a one-time step down that was associated with some cash that we had received earlier and that cash was being amortized according to the revenues that we were receiving and so once that MVC step down, it kind of compounded that step down. The Barnett MVC expired at the end of June '19. And so once that did happen the revenue recognition rate of the fixed payments, we have previously recorded began to be based on actual volumes rather than MVC levels. So this was an expected step down and Barnett revenue recognition for this area and we have been forecasting it but we also saw a $32 million of lower NGL margins in the West as unit margins in the Rockies were down by almost 50%. Partially offsetting these impacts was a strong growth in the Haynesville, the Eagle Ford and the Rocky Mountain Midstream franchise and the DJ Basin and in fact adjusted for the four Corners area in 2018, our West gathering volumes actually increased by about 2% on this comparison. And finally, I want to mention our Conway frac and storage business which continues to see strong year-over-year fee revenue growth on the back of the NGL productions in the surrounding areas like the DJ and the Bakken. So next, let's take a quick look at the adjusted EBITDA growth year-to-date and so now on Slide 4, we show the year-to-date comparison, adjusted EBITDA increased about 8% or about 12% if you adjust for the bigger transactions that affect the year-over-year comparison, pretty similar story year-to-date as you heard. For the third quarter so I won't drag you back through that. On year-to-date drivers, we see Atlantic Gulf up 24% and the Northeast up about 19% driven by the same factors as we discussed. The West is down about 8% reflecting much lower NGL margins and again the step down in the Barnett revenue that we just discussed and the effects of severe winter weather this year on our Wyoming volumes during the first quarter of '19. As with the third quarter comparison, our full year West results actually reflect strong growth in the Haynesville, Eagle Ford and the Rocky Mountain Midstream franchise in the DJ as well as our Conway storage and frac business. So, very happy with the growth we've continue to show in the Atlantic Gulf and Northeast this year and the stability of our volumes in the West and strong revenue growth all leading to an 8% growth in adjusted EBITDA even considering the significant asset sales and low NGL margins and the one-time step down in the Barnett revenue recognition. So overall, operationally really strong performance overcoming a lot of those other structural issues. As you look over the sequential comparison to the second quarter of 2019 here on Slide 5, I'd point out that overall gathering volumes increased sequentially just over 0.5 Bcf a day to now over 13 Bcf per day for the first time and this was led by a 5% second quarter to third quarter increase in the Northeast and with somewhat negatively impacted by the Deepwater production outages that we previously discussed but the biggest driver 2Q to 3Q in the Atlantic Gulf was a favorable impact of reaching settlement terms with shippers on Transco. With respect to the lower West results, the one-time step down in Barnett revenue recognition amortization and the MVC expiration drove the decrease from the second quarter and the one-time Barnett step down overshadows what was actually about 4% improvement in gathering volume sequentially in the West. In fact, our West gathering volume trend continues to hold up well in a very tough commodity price environment and now that we're past the revenue recognition transitions and the MVC expiration, the steady nature of our West operations will become increasingly more visible. The operational cash flows are holding up in the West and the CapEx requirements are coming down, generating significant free cash flow from our West assets. So overall, we're pleased with our operational performance in the third quarter and it's very encouraging to see the kind of volume growth we continue to generate in the Northeast and the West G&P businesses and in fact is the first time that I can recall our fee-based business growth being able to overwhelm such a substantial decline in commodity prices showing that our move towards a more sustainable and predictable cash flow is now really paying off for our long-term investors. Now I'm going to move on to Slide 6 and take a look real quickly here at the key investor focus areas. First, on financial guidance. We are reaffirming our current financial guidance for 2019. It's definitely been a challenging commodity price environment for natural gas and NGLs versus the market's original expectations and our own for 2019. But I am pleased to say that it looks like we'll be able to deliver on our financial guidance once again this year in spite of this negative impact. As this is reflected in our year-to-date results through September 2019 has been a year of strong free cash flow generation and I'm pleased with the way our teams have kept us on track with our original business plan from a year ago and how they continue to exceed expectations on project delivery on generating new business, all while spending less capital than we planned. In fact, despite losing about $100 million of our planned direct commodity margins, we are still on track proving up the diversity of our cash flows and the power of crisp execution by our teams. Also growth CapEx could easily come in under the low end of our $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion guidance range which as you know has already been reduced once this year and our dividend coverage ratio continues to be better than our $1.7 billion guidance. Our 2019 results illustrate the steady and strong cash flow growth profile of our large-scale diversified natural gas focused business and the excellent security of our dividend even in a very tough commodity price environment. Moving on now to 2020 guidance, we're currently working through our 2020 operating and capital plan and intend to provide the 2020 financial guidance at are upcoming Analyst Day on December 5. At this event, we will also provide our latest views on the sustainability of our natural gas focused strategy and our unique positioning to grow alongside to continue expansion of natural gas as a preferred and vital fuel around the world. Although we have great confidence in the long-term sustainability of our business strategy, the current low natural gas and NGL prices which are exceeding the long-term growth of natural gas demand have had a pretty significant impact on the forecasted near-term growth from our G&P business, particularly in the Northeast. And clearly our producer forecasted cash flow that they have available to drill with has been heavily impacted by much lower strip prices for gas and NGLs. And as a result, our 2020 Northeast gathering volume growth forecast has steadily drifted downward. As we said earlier in the year, we are committed to keeping our guidance up to date with our changes in our producer plans and so we've continued as those forecasts have come in, we've continued to make those changes. However, as we've said before, confidence in low-cost U.S. natural gas reserves will continue and is continuing to drive strong natural gas demand growth over the long term and there will have to be a call on natural gas focused supply areas given the continuous growth in demand and the stronger than ever capital discipline from the producer community and of course we will be extremely well positioned and are well positioned for the upside associated with that. As a result, we believe that as long as we continue to see natural gas demand growth that we should see the volume and capacity demand growth necessary to generate the 5% to 7% adjusted EBITDA CAGR that we continue to talk about over the long term to be clear this is not mean that every year we will be exactly in that range, some could be slightly lower and others like this year will be above. The 2020 financial guidance, we provide in early December will be built off of low strip prices for natural gas and NGLs and because of this we view the guidance is having significant upside as the gas market rebalances. However, we're pleased to say that we have been taking measures to mitigate this risk and our 2020 plan will show the discipline and resulting improvement that we've been putting on our cost structure so realizing we were going to have some risk associated with this, we've taken a big swipe at our cost and team has been extremely effective on doing that. And so the benefit of that as well as some other continued growth, we believe, will continue to offset the reduction that we continue to see in the Northeast. We will see reduced capital expenditures in the Northeast but we also are very focused on the very strong dividend coverage that that's providing us. So speaking of growth capital, our 2020 capital budget will be dominated by our regulated pipeline expansions as much of the major build out of our GMP systems will be completed by the end of this year driving even higher levels of free cash flow growth and we had earlier expected. One of the areas that is beginning to be a big driver of free cash flow growth is the Northeast operating area and we have been working hard to stay on top of the producer forecast changes in the Northeast. Our previous guidance for the Northeast G&P for 2019 remains intact where we are currently forecasting gathering volume growth of about 13%. And this should result in adjusted EBITDA growth of 19% for a total of about $1.3 billion, so not a bad year given all the much more negative forecast provided by Research and others. So, year-to-date through the third quarter, we've generated about 17% gathering volume growth but we do expect that overall annual growth to moderate here in the fourth quarter since our fourth quarter comparison will be up against the volumes that grew rapidly right after Atlantic Sunrise came online last October. Looking towards 2020, our latest forecast informed by our planned producer activity shows about 3.5% gathering volume growth versus our previous expectation of 5.5%. The decline in expected G&P volume growth was driven primarily by lower customer forecasted volume growth in the Bradford Utica and Susquehanna areas as producers continue to react to lower forecasted 2020 natural gas and NGL prices and based on this forecast, we would still expect adjusted EBITDA growth of about 8% to get to about $1.4 billion, so $50 million is lower than what we had for our second quarter expectations for '20, but still $100 million of growth here in 2019 to 2020. So the decrease in expected adjusted EBITDA also includes a pretty significant reduction from the Blue Racer investment. So part of that $50 million reduction comes from the non-operating investment we have in Blue Racer. And then beyond 2020, we continue to see an opportunity for a stronger growth rate to resume in 2020-2021 in the Northeast and that of course would be dependent on better balance in the natural gas market but we remain excited about how well we are positioned for that call on natural gas. So overall, we remain encouraged to see the level of EBITDA growth. Our Northeast G&P business can continue to generate in a very weak natural gas and NGL price environment and we remain very focused on cost reduction and capital discipline as we await long-term fundamentals to balance. We believe it won't take a large price recovery to quickly restore growth rates above 8% for our Northeast G&P footprint. So now let's move on to discuss our Transco growth projects. First, I'll provide an update on the rate case, very pleased that we have reached an agreement on the terms of the settlement and as a result, we've reduced the reserve we established against the cash and the receiving from the filed rates that went effective in March of this year which along with other related accounting entries results in about $44 million in favorable adjustments. The agreement will resolve all issues in the rate case with no need for any hearings. Of course, final resolution of the rate case is subject to a filing for us to file a formal stipulation, an agreement with the FERC and final approval by the FERC. So a lot of process still in front of us to get final resolution on that rate case but we're very pleased with way that came out. The terms of the settlement are non-public until the stipulation and agreement has been filed with FERC. We will provide an overview of the key terms of the settlement following the FERC filing. For now, I'll just say we're pleased that we were able to reach agreement on the key terms with our customers and related regulators and we await the final FERC approval of the settlement. But I want to make it really clear on one point here, I would caution you from thinking that this reserve adjustment provides you with a clear picture of the annual run rate impact for 2020. And we certainly look forward to being able to show you the full impact once those filings are completed. So let's touch on the status of Transco's major growth projects, starting with the Northeast Supply Enhancement project. Lots of headlines out there related to this very important project for the residents and businesses of New York City. We are still awaiting the State Water Quality Certification permits required for the project from both the New York DEC and the New Jersey DEP. At this point, the risk to our targeted in-service date is increasing although we are going to do everything we can to meet our targeted in-service date for the fourth quarter of 2020, it is quite challenging to bring the onshore compression facility, a portion of the project which is there in New Jersey really challenging to get that done within a year's time frame and that is the current critical path that will be up against but currently we still feel that we can help support the peak load for the '20 and '21 winter. So a lot of great work by our team that's been going on that. I can tell you there's been an impressive amount of work in a working with the various agencies and the various stakeholders on that and I remain confident in our ability to bring that one across the line. So next, I'm very pleased that we're able to place our Rivervale South to Market project in the full service ahead of schedule. The project is a Transco expansion of 190 million cubic feet per day to service additional customers in New Jersey and New York City. We also received FERC approval for our important Southeastern Trail expansion. The Southeastern Trail project adds about 295 million cubic feet per day to the Transco pipeline system and this is designed to serve growing markets in both the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states by November of 2020. In fact, all of our Transco projects that have been permitted for construction are progressing well. And finally, our most recently announced Transco project the Regional Energy Access project is now headed for approval at our upcoming November Board meeting, so great work by the teams in pulling that project together as well. And I'll remind you that one of the chief benefits of that project is being able to utilize our existing right of ways for that project. Now moving on to Slide 7. Here just to conclude, taking a quick look at our third quarter performance and our high-level review of our key investor topics, we look forward to our upcoming Analyst Day on December 5th and this is going to give us an opportunity to dive deeper into a lot of the really key issues that are out in front of us right now and a lot of the drivers for growth that we are really excited to share about with you both for 2020 and beyond 2020. So just in closing, I'll remind you we do live in a world that will continue to need more energy, there is a growing need for that energy to be as clean burning as possible. Renewables are certainly going to play an increasingly important role but their growth requires a partnership with natural gas to meet the energy needs of the world while also reducing emissions over time. Natural gas does have the lowest CO2 emissions to heat content ratio when compared to other fuels and provide superior economics versus other fuel types and as an example between 2005 and 2018 CO2 emissions from electricity fell 27% due to replacing coal and oil and natural gas power generation. So while low cost natural gas also facilitates costly investments in renewables, it is paving the way around the world to be the fuel of choice. Williams benefits from having ideally situated existing pipes in the ground and we continue to see demand for expansion for the long for both the near term and the long term and despite a pretty tough current commodity price and regulatory permitting environment the future remains very bright for Williams as we demonstrated here in the third quarter and for strategically placed natural gas focus assets like we are so fortunate to operate and we look forward to discussing that future with you in December. So with that, let's go ahead and transition to our Q&A session. And thank you again for your time today.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Colton Bean with Tudor Pickering Holt & Company.
Colton Bean:
It sounds like Haynesville volume growth was fairly robust through Q3, can you use off your thoughts on how that's progressing here in Q4 and maybe what the outlook looks like for 2020?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I think there's obviously been a lot of focus on Chesapeake, in the Haynesville and certainly they've had a strong year of growth. But our teams have been out contracting with other customers and have been very successful with other customers in the area. And likely we will start to see some reduction in the growth we've enjoyed from Chesapeake volumes, we're now starting to see that picked up by third parties and we're really excited to be working with some of those and we've got some very collaborative ideas about the way to grow the Haynesville volumes out there. So we're actually pretty encouraged about what we've been able to work with other producers that surround and integrate with the Chesapeake acreage.
Colton Bean:
And in terms of those agreements, are those consistent with maybe some of the legacy terms or should we think about those as newly cut the agreements that are more current market?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say there's a combination there. Obviously, it depends on what the market is in the area and so I'm not going to comment on specifically what those rates are but obviously it just depends on what kind of market apparently, we have in there.
Colton Bean:
And then just maybe transitioning over to the West, can you characterize some of your discussions with producers around the Piceance and Southwest Wyoming footprints and maybe more specifically have the reductions to bank commodity there, so those having an impact at all for the private producers there?
Alan Armstrong:
That's a great question. I would say we've seen very steady volumes there in the Piceance and so that's been a real positive. And it and it is mostly private money driving that. A lot of those folks as you know put hedges out in front and so they're just drilling up against those hedges. And then in Wyoming, in place like the Wamsutter, we have seen some slowing of what was some very robust growth but we are still seeing some nice growth there and the Wamsutter. Probably the area that I would expect to see more decline on volumes would be the gathering upstream of our old power processing plant would be the area. So a lot of that gas we don't gather, that is gathered by third parties but we do the processing on it so that's probably the biggest decline we are seeing in the Rockies right now is pullback in that area.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gabe Moreen with Mizuho.
Gabe Moreen:
Just had a quick question on the Northeast capital spend and I know you'll probably get into this at the Analyst Day quite a bit but relative to what looks like to be in Northeast G&P run rate spend about $550 million is plus or minus this year, can you maybe talk about just how low that could potentially go next year order of magnitude and to what degree there might be some mandatory capital spend you still have to finish up next year?
Micheal Dunn:
Gabe, this is Micheal Dunn. We will have a capital program up there. We have expansions that are ongoing in the Bradford that will continue to spend money on that are coming online in the second quarter. So we do still have a pretty significant program there and also some well connect activity as well. So I don't think you would see as robust as what we're spending this year by any means but we will still have some capital investment going on in the Northeast.
Gabe Moreen:
And then. Alan, let me if I could ask just bigger picture in terms of the EBITDA growth trajectory. I appreciate that some years will be up some of those will be little lower EBITDA growth but to what extent you think dividend growth may need to move in lockstep or not in lockstep with projected EBITDA growth just your latest thoughts around that.
Alan Armstrong:
That's an excellent question, Gabe. And I would just tell you that the free cash flow growth as you can see by the increase in coverage that we've got this year against it, we don't see any change in getting outside of that range that steady 5% to 7% range that we've talked about for dividend growth because the cash flow growth in a year where the capital spending might be lower, is just that much stronger. And obviously, we can see the growth coming because most of our capital despite we will have some capital in most of our capital, next year is going as I mentioned in my notes, most of our capital is going into regulated projects and therefore that cash flow growth is highly predictable to us in terms of when that's coming on. And so, we're not having to guess about what that growth in the prior years will be around that.
Gabe Moreen:
And I appreciate you will get more on the Transco rate case settlement with FERC approval but can you at all speak to where they're not the emissions tracker, reduction tracker wasn't approved as part of the settlement?
Alan Armstrong:
We cannot speak to that at this point. So I would just say there's a number of trade-offs around that but we cannot speak to that at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse.
Spiro Dounis:
Maybe just starting off or going around with the 2020 CapEx. Alan, it sounds like you've indicated a little bit this on directionality year-over-year but you also mentioned 2019 coming in potentially below the low end. So just curious with that bar sort of getting even lower, how should we think about the magnitude and direction of CapEx coming down next year? Obviously, you mentioned G&P skewing towards the low end of course but you also talked about regulated asset spending and I guess that's where maybe I'm unsure. Do we assume flat higher year-over-year, does that offset a lot of the GP decline?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say certain projects like for instance the Regional Energy Access project which will be taken to the board. So we'll see increase perhaps from what we had forecasted earlier on the regulated side but decrease in particularly in the G&P area and as we've talked about a lot of the growth that we have in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico doesn't require much capital relative to its growth and so we're going to enjoy some pretty attractive. There is one project in particular there that is going to require some capital and that started to get very clear for us in terms of what that's going to require in the Deepwater but a lot of the projects that we're working on there that the producer is providing the capital for. So I would just say for '20 as I mentioned, the '20 CapEx is definitely going to be dominated between the regulated gas pipeline and the long haul NGL pipeline that we're doing the Bluestone Pipeline that's going to dominate the 2020 CapEx. As Micheal mentioned, there is some cost of service capital still going into place in places like Bradford but majority in 2020 is going to be on the transmission side and it looks like based on the continued demand for the regulated pipe that we're going to continue to see some growth there and then as we get into '21 and '22, we will start to see the some of the impact of - one of the deepwater projects that I talked about start to impact our capital for '21 and '22. So I think that's about all I can give you right now sort of what we're going to show you at the Analyst Day.
Spiro Dounis:
Yes, and I can appreciate that. And then just on NESE, you mentioned the headlines and certainly I want to put too much emphasis on those but I guess what we're struggling with is, just given what some of the government officials have said, it just seems like some of those statements or maybe hard to walk back to get them to a point where they can improve the pipeline. So maybe just extra color on what we're not appreciating in that dynamic and to the extent that NYSE does get at the letter or may be mothball from here. Is there another regulated project out there that you can sort of fast track to get to the front of the stack? And as a replacement and then ultimately, what does that do to CapEx in '20 got I think that NESE is a big part of that right now.
Micheal Dunn:
I will take that. This is Micheal. We're still confident the NESE is going to have some approvals this fall that allow us to start construction in order for us to meet that winter of 2021 timeframe and why we're confident is because of the significant emissions reduction opportunities that the project allows our customer and the customers of our customer in their service territory in Brooklyn and Long island but also the economic development impact is a very significant if this project does not get built. And so that's why it gives us a lot of confidence that this will happen and obviously you see the headline and we have been very responsive to the regulators in regard to what their concerns were with our permitting applications that we've remedy those we believe and we do have full expectations that we will have permits in place so that we can start construction this fall. And our teams do a great job of getting projects done on time and we certainly have developed contingency plans to accelerate construction if we get crunched on our schedule but we certainly believe we can make the December of '20 timeframe so that our customer can meet their peak load requirements that are occurring in the next winter season after this winter. Other projects in the queue, I would just tell you we have about $3 billion of capital that we're actively working that's just on the Transco system including NESE and Regional Energy Access and the other projects that we've talked about and certainly will provide a lot more information on this at Analyst Day but we have great confidence in this $3 billion of CapEx, it's about 2.5% Bcf of capacity increase alone on the Transco system. And these are the ones that we have very high confidence and I can tell you we're working on another couple of billion dollars capital investment just for the Transco system now that certainly out into the future, we're talking maybe a 2020-2024 timeframe as to when those projects will be in service but there is a long runway of projects just on the Transco system that we're actively working now. We have high confidence in it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
What if anything would cause Williams to renegotiate contracts with shippers? Are their win-win outcomes that you could see via contract extensions or new dedications?
Alan Armstrong:
Sorry Jean, are you talking about gathering contracts I assume?
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Yes, definitely.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. Because I wouldn't think of anything that would bring anything on the pipeline side, a very standard tariff and obviously you have to treat everybody the same on the regulated pipelines. On the gathering stuff, I would just say, we always have our eyes open to ways we can add value on that but there is really not anything we're aware of out there that would motivate us to lower any rates that are out there other than on a short-term basis to increment volumes in an area to spur drilling. But I really don't know of anything that would motivate us to lower rates from our existing rates out there other than for the increment sometimes that we do to incent drilling in the area.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
And then just one more on SEM. If it does not go forward with the ultimate outcome of that from New York's perspective be more oil burning to meet demand or is there anything else out there that they've kind of proposed as an alternate solution?
Alan Armstrong:
I think the only thing else we've heard is trucking LNG or bringing in propane. So I think that's the options other than more oil burning. I mean it is interesting because there is so much growth going on it surprises us I think when we realized how much real demand growth there is going and how fast the growth is going on in the Brooklyn and Bronx area there and that is what's really putting pressure on this issue is not just the conversion but as well the growth that's going on there. So it's pretty overwhelming as we studied it, what's really driving the growth there. And so, as Micheal said, I think that really gives us a lot of confidence both the ability to help reduce emissions in the area, but to also there's got to be support for economic development there in a sustainable way and therefore that gives us a lot of confidence.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
I just wanted to start off with 2020 EBITDA guidance and recognize that this is something for the Analyst Day and don't want to parse your words too much here but when you talk about 2020 the headwinds you noted growth could be a bit less that year than the normal five to seven range and when you say a little bit less, Just trying to get a feeling for that is that mean growth could be zero, could it be negative or is it just below five or is there any other color that you can provide on what you mean by a little bit less there?
Alan Armstrong:
Jeremy, thank you. And I'm really glad you brought that question forward because I think there might be some confusion brewing on this issue. We really, we're just trying to remind people because we do have so much growth going on across the business and particularly with this Transco rate case which again we can't lay out the details on that but we really are trying to remind people as they start to see all these positives that they don't pile that on to the level that it gets inappropriately high growth rate but we certainly expect significant growth next year. We just want to make sure people don't get too far ahead of us and that they're taking those issues into account because people are really starting to form their model for 2020 and we just want to make sure that they're taking all these other variables into account because I think if you start piling all these positive things on top of each other, you would actually get to a pretty high growth rate, if you're not taking into account things like the Barnett in the Gulfstar step down, so that's really what we're trying to do there is just remind people to build that into our model. And so, perhaps our conservatism on that over did that a little bit but that was what we were trying to accomplish now.
Jeremy Tonet:
And just want to go back a topic that's been talked about in prior calls and you guys have taken strong actions in the capital discipline side, as far as portfolio optimization is concerned do you still see opportunities to take actions there or any way to thoughts you could provide?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say the thing that we've really done well and I call credit Micheal and his very engaged oversight on this is we have just been making sure that we're not putting capital out in front the growth and so we have really reign that end and so we've really made sure that any growth capital that we're investing in most of these areas comes with some either an MVC or rate increase that supports it so that we're not out on a limb building out in front of a bunch of growth and so that's the discipline and as a result of that people are not willing to make those commitments were pulling in the capital that. And so that is really what provide a lot of opportunity as well in UIO the synergies there is with the UEOM is a great example there where we had capital expansions, we were going to have to make for fractionation there. And by doing that deal, we were able to eliminate that we also have been able to work with some of the other processors in the area and take overflow volumes rather than seeing capital being invested in the areas. So we really, and it's nice to see the whole industry really trying to bring that capital discipline across the space, because I think that makes us all healthier and so we're seeing a lot of discipline that is showing up as higher returns and better free cash flow for us here in 2020 and beyond.
Jeremy Tonet:
It is good to see you guys kind of swim in their lanes there. I think that's good for the industry but I was also just curious I guess on the joint venture side or asset sale side if there are any other thoughts on potential future actions there that you guys could share?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say we are, we still see very significant opportunity along those fronts. And we're really excited. I think one of the things that we have going for us is that where our assets are, we tend to have very well-positioned assets with very strong contract behind them and very long-lived contracts behind them and as a result of that, that gives a lot of security of the cash flows that we have. And that's exactly what the private side investor, not necessarily typical private equity but the private funds, pension funds and so forth is that's exactly what they're looking for and so we make a great joint venture partner with those folks because we're a safe, reliable and conservative minded operator. And so, we make a great partner for those folks. And so, yes to answer your question we see some pretty significant opportunity there and we are working that angle pretty hard.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Alex Kania with Wolfe Research.
Alex Kania:
Just a question on your thoughts around the mid pipeline sale and that was not certainly at this fall, I believe you guys had a right of first refusal on the transaction. So I'm just wondering what your thoughts were with respect to not going forward to exercise that, was it price? Were there any other benefits or something like that with respect to the leased at them, that that may have kind of made you sort of okay with not exercising that option, just curious.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I mean part of it certainly was price. If you look at the cash flow relative to the price paid and kind of ignore the structuring around that, it's pretty low return and so that was certainly a piece of it and then there was some consideration that we received in exchange for that and we're not going to discuss the details of that. So we certainly took a look at it but it just didn't make sense really for our given our other investment opportunities that we have. It really just been stack up against our other investment opportunities.
John Chandler:
This is John Chandler, if you think about that in many ways would be something like debt on our books and we're paying lease payments against that meet interest. We looked at that long and hard to actually buy that interest in what we would have incurred an additional $400 million in debt. Basically, to do that and that's taking our leverage the wrong way. So our leverage focus came into play in that decision as well.
Alex Kania:
Just again respecting that you can't really say much on the settlement. Just I'm thinking about how the accounting and then necessarily would work when you're able to give more details on that. Would it end up you recognizing kind of revenue for this year and with that already be included in the guidance that you've reaffirmed or would that be kind of another variable that that might affect that going into the end of the year.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. It's a great question. I would just say that our performance or our guidance certainly takes in that into account and it's just one of those things that just like we've seen the negative impact of low cycle NGL margins is one of those things that offsets that - the beauty of having a big diversified business to be able to see some positives and some negatives during the year. So, but it definitely is considered as we think about the guidance affirmation for the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish:
I just have one question I guess one of your large utility customers is proposed a large offshore wind farm near Virginia. So I'm just curious how you think about renewables in general and then whether you've thought about investing jointly in these type of projects?
Alan Armstrong:
It's good question. I would just say we have so much investment opportunity already that are at higher returns than what we've seen of - then realized in those projects that given our continued focus on balance sheet as well as the higher return investment opportunities that we have that just wouldn't make sense right now and obviously there is always learnings when you venture into something new and we think there's risk obviously associated with that and bottom line is sticking to our knitting right now we think is going to add a lot of value and is the right approach for us. Having said that, there are things like our right of ways and things like that that can be very valuable when it comes to renewables but we are very convinced after studying this issue a lot that the natural gas generation that has to go along with the renewables effort is going to continue to be a big driver of growth for us and it is showing up in very real ways in terms of RFPs and negotiations with customers even beyond the visibility that we provided to date on that. And so until that word in or we can start to see that starting and I just don't think we've got capital or risk appetite to venture into something new given the opportunities in front of us today.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere:
If the 2020 strip remains below 250 and Cabot another customer moved maintenance only investment, would it be reasonable to use the third quarter, Northeast G&P run rate as a steady-state level?
Alan Armstrong:
I don't really think so just because there is some MVCs and so forth that are getting built into some of the capital it's going in right now. So I really don't think that would be a real good assumption, it is a good question but I don't think-- it's certainly might be for certain areas as we get towards the end of the year here. I mean we have already seeing volumes obviously here in the fourth quarter that show us continued growth. So on an actual basis here so I don't know that would be a very fair assessment given what we're seeing here in October and then there is other areas that like in the Bradford where we have real capital but it is going into place in the cost of service will step up as a result of that. So good question, but I would tell you right now I kind of doubt that would be the case.
Craig Shere:
And one last question, apologies if I missed it, it looks like some good clarification about the impact of the Barnett MVC step down in the third quarter, was there any specific figures around the Gulfstar One deferred revenue recognition in fact as we head into 2020?
John Chandler:
This is John Chandler. As you think about 2020, actually there is a small additional, Barnett step that I think about it this year. We've had two quarters of higher levels of deferred revenue that step down in the third quarter, so we have about $20 million to $30 million of additional step down in the Barnett amortization next year just because you've got four quarters of that step down in 2020. And in addition somewhere around that $70 million to $80 million of up around $7 million step down in the at Gulfstar amortization. As we come out at the end of the exclusivity period that for that platform.
Craig Shere:
And is that 70 plus million for Gulfstar in 2020 does that impact the full year or does some of that.
John Chandler:
That's a full year number because that exclusivity period in the November the last payments of this year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
One of my questions have been asked and answered but I was wondering if we could just circle back a little bit on the rate case, a little bit. First, just to confirm, one of the comments you made in the prepared remarks that we can't really on any of the reserve adjustments, should we just think of it is, it's an accounting movement from a reserve to the income statement and it's just a journaling entry and that really has no tell about what is going on with the rate case, is that an accurate reflection?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes I mean obviously if you think about the way that works, we have to record our best available information that come through in that but the rate case has a lot of complex issues to be dealt with and I would just say that not all of those are reflected in that change that you saw. And so that's why I know everybody wants to jump ahead, we would rather have not had to show anything on that honestly but from an accounting rule standpoint, we have too but it is not the whole picture and we look forward to be able to share that whole picture there.
Shneur Gershuni:
And I realize you can't sort of talk about the case itself. But I was wondering if you can talk about the back and forth between you and the counterparties in the negotiations, do you feel that both sides concluded that they got some of what they wanted?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, this is Micheal. I would say it was actually a very good negotiation with our shippers as we always have with the Transco organization and we have a great relationship there with the shippers and the regulators over those customers as well. And there is always contentious issue that somebody wants to make sure that they have success on and I would say both sides walked away from that pleased with the outcome. And we are happy to get it behind us and able to go through the litigation of the of the rate case and so there's always some issue that it can be contentious. But I think both sides dealt with it very professionally.
Shneur Gershuni:
And then one final question, I know there's been a lot of back and forth about NESE and when it comes to the regulators and so forth but in a scenario where NESE is delayed longer and you have to move the in-service date by at least a year let's say, do you see an opportunity to potentially deploy kind of the budgeted CapEx towards buybacks, do you feel that's an option or an arrow in the quiver at this point that you can, potentially use just given where your stock is trading at?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say that first of all, we remain confident on that. And so really don't see that as something that we'd be looking at the trade up. I think as we get further out and we get below down to the credit metrics that we want to, I definitely think that will be on the table as a debate but right now the I know that we see a big hole in our capital coming up just because while there might be little changes here and there in the grander scheme of things, I don't really see a big change come in there and any anything that would present itself here in the very near term as a surprise, excess cash available would just go out and be to taken the credit metric down very quickly.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Derek Walker with Bank of America Securities.
Derek Walker:
Just a quick, just a quick one on the leverage and I believe you said you're expecting to hit kind of four five by the end of the year. And there is a long-term target of the four two number. Can you just talk about, I think you said you're evaluating some opportunistic transactions to improve leverage metrics further, is that what's needed to hit the four two or is that mostly just coming from an EBITDA ramp and are you still looking to make transaction to go below that four two number?
Alan Armstrong:
Great question. Well, certainly the path we're on gets us to the four two. It's a question of, if there is additional value added transactions that we could do in other words that would add value to the equity side as well rather than just taking down the debt and so some of the transactions that we've done to date, we think a very valuable to shareholders where we've been able to sell assets at 14 to 15 times and redeploy that capital into higher return investment opportunities. And so we think as long as that continues to be available to us so that's really good value for our shareholders and we'll continue to pursue that, but the first thing we would do, it's just a matter of how fast we get there, really the first thing we would do with excess cash would be to take it down four two. And I'll just remind you in terms of the '19, we are already below the four five here for or '19 and so we're making great progress towards that. But it really just a question of rate or acceleration of that goal. But we certainly are on that trajectory is just that it's a big number and we can move it a lot quicker, if we were to do some transaction.
Derek Walker:
And maybe just one on the operational side, I believe you just commissioned the Keenesburg one facility processing facility. I think as capacity of 225, can just talk about the utilization on that plant and I believe you are also targeting second Keenesburg plan in '21. And you mentioned sort of the step down a CapEx for next year. Can you talk about how you're thinking about that that like a plan as well?
Micheal Dunn:
This is Micheal. I will take the question on the Keansburg plant. We commission that on time and on budget. Our team did a great job following up our Fort Lupton plant $200 million a day plant that we commissioned back in April. And we're able to balance volumes between those two plants and right now we're doing so and catching a lot of additional volume from spillover customers that have other arrangements and aren't being met with our competitor peer group in the DJ Basin and so we're actually tracking a lot of additional business there. Our Fort Lupton plant was at full capacity already and our Keansburg plant was at about 50% capacity pretty darn quick there and right now we're balancing between those two plants based on deliverability of NGLs off the plants as well as residue gas. So pretty good load factor on both those plants right now considering just came online this year.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, great, thank you all for the really good questions. And we really look forward to sharing the growth that we've got ahead of us within the Analyst Day. So we look forward to seeing you there. Thanks again.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone, this concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to The Williams Company’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John Porter:
Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, and thank you for your interest in The Williams Company. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin. In our presentation materials you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today’s presentation materials. And so with that, I’ll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, good morning, everyone. Thanks, John and thanks for everybody joining us. I know it’s a busy time right now. As we discussed the second quarter financial performance and the key investor focus areas we’re going to hit, as we have in the past, some of the areas that we’ve questioned, we’ve been hearing from our investor base. So let’s move right into the presentation and take a look at our second quarter of 2019 results. Here on Slide 2, we provided a clear view of our year-over-year financial performance. As you can see, we continue to enjoy very healthy growth in all of our key measures. In general, all the metrics we want to go up, we went up by double digits and those we’ve been working to reduce, it went down. So this growth continues to reflect very little direct commodity exposure, so we remind you. And in fact, year to date our 2019 gross margin is 98% fee-based versus only 2% coming from direct commodity margin. And I’ll remind you with that is a very predictable set of cash flows making this be 14th quarter in a row that we have been in line or been at least in line with Street consensus and our own guidance. So let’s take it from the top with our GAAP cash flow from operations, which increased 20% for the quarter and 16% year to date. Our business continues to demonstrate significant free cash flow and as you can see our CFFO exceeded CapEx by over $360 million and $625 million for the quarter and year to date periods. On the next line we show 12% and 9% growth for adjusted EBITDA, which is impressive in the face of significant asset sales affecting the period. And I’ll have more to say about what drove the adjusted EBITDA performance here in the next couple of slides. And you can see our continued strong growth and adjusted EPS metrics posting excellent 53% and 33% increases. Our EPS continues to be burdened with substantial non-cash charges. And I encourage you to take a look at Slide 12 and the appendix to appreciate the true power of our cash flows underlying these earnings. Our DCF was up about 36% and 21% with strong growth in the per share calculation and the related dividend coverage ratio moving up above 1.8x with the second quarter being boosted by a cash tax item that we disclosed. We’re making great progress on bringing leverage down. Our original guidance was to finish the year at less than 4.75x and we currently sit at 4.43x, and we’ll discuss our revised leverage guidance in a moment. And finally, crisp execution on our projects continues keeping our capital spending in line with our expectations. So really nice improvement in our various earnings and cash flow metrics despite the impact of significant asset sales. As we move on here to Slide 3, for the quarter adjusted EBITDA increased just over 12% or 14%, if you adjust for the bigger transactions that affect the year-over-year comparison. On the left side of the slide in gray, you can see an unfavorable $37 million comparability adjustment, which includes removing the adjusted EBITDA from the various asset sale transactions completed during the last 12 months and then taking out the $11 million favorable item reflecting the addition of the incremental 38% UEOM ownership interest. The normalizing for those items you see adjusted EBITDA growing about 14%. Now moving over to look at the financial performance at the continuing business. Similar to the first quarter of this year, Atlantic-Gulf led the increase with a 23% increase in adjusted EBITDA driven by top line Transco revenue growth from new expansion projects, including Atlantic Sunrise and the Gulf Connector. Next up, looking at the Northeast G&P area, we had a 20% increase in year-over-year adjusted EBITDA, driven by 17% higher gathering volumes and higher gathering fees associated with expansion projects. Volume increases were led by the Susquehanna Supply Hub area, which grew about 23%. But we also saw double digit growth rates in all of our other operated Northeast franchise except the smaller Laurel Mountain JV that we have with Chevron. Probably one of the more impactful changes that we had there was the Utica volumes up about 15%. And so as we mentioned in the past, the Encino transaction out there has really been important to us, to see the volumes in the Utica really start to turn around from what previously had been declined to now a very healthy incline. So overall we continued a very nice start to the year in the Northeast. And finally, we have the West, which is pretty flat to the prior year where a sharp drop in NGL margins was offset by nice growth and fee-based service revenues. And we’re excited to see as well a new plant at Fort Lupton quickly fill up this quarter in the DJ Basin. As we – we’ve now exceeded about 200 million a day of new inlet volumes coming into that plant. So as we told you, that just started up right around the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter and that new train there has already filled up. So great growth going on there in the DJ Basin. Moving on to Slide 4 and looking at the year-over-year results. Pretty similar story year to date as you heard for the second quarter. Once again on the left side of the slide in grey, you can see the unfavorable of $78 million comparability adjustment from the various asset sell transactions and then a $13 million favorable item reflecting the pickup of an incremental 38% UEOM interest again. And so normalizing for those items you see adjusted EBITDA growing about 13% for the first six month comparison. Year to date, we see Atlantic-Gulf up 21% and the Northeast up 20% driven by the same factors that we just discussed on the previous slide, namely Transco revenue growth and strong broad-based volume growth across Northeast. The West is down about 3% on this comparison, reflecting much lower NGL margins and the effect of severe winter weather this year on volumes in 1Q of 2019. All in all, very happy with our second quarter performance, which tracks well with our overall business plan from last fall despite the decline we’ve seen in natural gas and NGL pricing. And we are very well positioned to continue this growth here in the last half of the year. Next let’s revisit a few of the key investor focus areas. And before I dig into the items on this slide, I just want to remind you a few things. First of all, we just recently announced the reorganization and some other cost reduction initiatives that we have going on at the company right now. As you may have noted from our recent 8-K after more than 30 years of service, Jim Scheel will be leaving the company in December of this year. And we’re taking the opportunity to further reduce our operating areas to two, one focus primarily on our FERC regulated gas pipeline business led by Scott Hallam and the other focused on our non-regulated business being led by Walt Bennett, who leads our West Gathering business today. I have more to say in recognition of the fine work Jim has done for Williams on the third quarter call. But for now, I’ll just say the reorganization to two operating areas represents another step toward becoming further simplified and centralized as we seek to be the very best operator in the natural gas infrastructure business. So these moves are basically taking advantage of the scale that we have in these very similar businesses and continuing to drive common processes and common systems across our operations. But we will continue to provide supplemental disclosures to assist in the modeling of our non-regulated business, but don’t worry about losing any of the transparency that we provide today. Our supplemental disclosures will provide at least as much visibility as you have today and will continue to highlight the Northeast volume and EBITDA growth that continues to occur. Beyond the consolidation, the operating areas we have also initiated a voluntary separation program and are looking at other cost reduction opportunities given the $5-plus billion of asset sales that we’ve had over the last three years. And really narrowing our focus down to the natural gas infrastructure space is allowing us to take full advantage of the scale. And I can tell you the entire management team is very focused on us being – having the very best operating margin ratio in the business. And so we continue to push hard on that as a team and we really believe given the scale that we have – we ought to be the very best in the industry on this measure. And these efforts are taking us closer and closer to that point. So let’s look now at the first item we’ll be discussing, which is our financial guidance and progress on deleveraging. First off, we are reaffirming our current financial guidance for 2019 and now guiding to a further improvement in our year end 2019 leverage target. You can find the various elements of our 2019 financial guidance in the appendix of this presentation. Additionally, we are also affirming our longer-term EBITDA growth rate of 5% to 7% per year. Turning now to our leverage. We achieved the debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.43x at the end of the second quarter and we announced that our year end 2019 debt to adjusted EBITDA to be less than 4.5x, as you’ll recall, our original guidance was to be less than 4.75x for the same period. The effects of our transactions along with our recently lower capital expenditure forecast has allowed us to significantly improve our 2019 debt to adjusted EBITDA expectations for 2019. There is no change to our long-term target of 4.2x that we plan to hit by the end of 2021 and we continue to evaluate transactions that could potentially allow us to reach the 4.2x at a faster rate. As an affirmation that we are making the right moves on the leverage front, we recently saw some favorable rating agency actions, where S&P improved its outlook to a BBB flat stable rating and Fitch put us on Rating Watch Positive. Shifting now to discuss the expected growth in our Northeast G&P business, we’d like to first emphasize that we still believe in the strong natural gas demand growth fundamentals that underpin our strategy. We’ve seen continued delays in the startup of nearly all of the LNG terminals that were planned to come online in the first half of 2019, but that just means we’re going to see an even stronger pool on natural gas in the back half of this year. It really is easy to see that the natural gas demand growth outlook remains very strong driven by LNG export growth, continued power generation and major industrial investments that continue to come online, trying to take advantage of low cost of U.S. natural gas and U.S. low cost NGL prices. Components in low cost U.S. natural gas reserves will continue to drive strong natural gas demand growth over the long term. And as a result, we believe that there will have to be a call on natural gas focused supply areas given the continuous growth in natural gas demand and the stronger than ever capital discipline being demonstrated by the producer community. Our near term, we continue to see commodity price headwinds for our producer customers in the area and we believe that producers are responding appropriately to the current market conditions, continuing to plan around or hope for higher prices would only exacerbate the length and supply. And we are also very focused on closely matching our capital programs with these latest forecasts. Our Northeast growth capital for 2020 probably ends up being about half of what it was in 2019 due to this reduce to us going back capital as well as the synergies that we’re realizing from the UEOM transaction, while also making significant near term reductions in 2019, as we continue to respond to the producers disciplined approach. So with that being said, let’s take a closer look at our current expectations for the Northeast G&P business through 2020, built on the backs of our most producer customer feedback. Starting with 2019, you can see that we are currently forecasting gathering volume growth of about 13%, which should result in adjusted EBITDA growth of 19% for a total of about $1.3 billion. Year-to-date, we’ve generated about 16% gathering volume growth, but we do expect that overall annual growth to moderate in the fourth quarter, mostly just since because our fourth quarter comparison will be up against volumes that grew rapidly after Atlantic Sunrise came on in the fourth quarter of 2018. Looking forward our 2020, very latest forecast shows about 5.5% gathering volume growth over 2019, generating about 11% adjusted EBITDA growth to get to about $1.45 billion. I might just note that we had always expected a slowing in the growth rate for 2020 versus 2019 with respect to our prior 10% to 15% gathering volumes CAGR. It seems that folks maybe missed the frontend impact that was present in the CAGR and instead thought we were assuming more of an annual or equal annual growth rates. That was never the case and the unequal growth rates across the 2018 to 2021 timeframe were indicated given the strong growth that we have been expecting and we are seeing in 2019. Beyond 2020, we do see an opportunity for stronger growth rates resume in 2021, but that of course, will be dependent on it better balance in the natural gas market. I’d also just mentioned that as we think about the Northeast pricing environment, it is important to remember that even if today’s pricing environment reduce our net backs are still better than they were in the 2015 and 2016 timeframe, when production was constraining and commodity prices were more a function of the basis differential than the Henry Hub prices, since then incremental gas takeaway capacity has come online improving realized prices in the region and the producers have become significantly more efficient and disciplined with our capital during this timeframe. So overall, we are encouraged to see the level of EBITDA growth. Our Northeast G&P business can continue to generate even in the weak natural gas price environment we’re currently experiencing and we remain very focused on cost reduction and capital discipline as we await long term fundamentals to balance. Now let’s move onto our – discuss our Transco growth projects. First, let me give a quick update on the Transco rate case, although not a lot of new information to pass along here. As our competence will set them up and our process continues. We’ve now had five conferences and we continue to work the issues like ROE with our customers. Last quarter, we stated that the settlement negotiations were likely to continue for many months, they have done that and resolution could extend in the next year. We are cautiously optimistic that a settlement can ultimately be reached without the need for litigation and the settlement would include the $1.2 billion emissions reduction tracker that will allow Transco to significantly reduce emissions from our existing compression fleet along the Eastern Seaboard. And as always, I’ll remind you that we don’t have any upside from the rate case reflected in our financial guidance. So let’s touch on the status of Transco’s major growth projects starting with the Northeast Supply Enhancement project. This quarter, we quickly reapplied for the 401 water quality certification in New York and New Jersey and promptly received notice of complete application from New York and New Jersey has indicated that our application is administratively complete. These are very important milestones in the re-filing of this and taking on some of the technical issues that were raised by both of those states. Obtaining both of these 401 certifications is essential to begin construction this fall in order to meet the project and service date. The enhancement of the existing infrastructure is critical and connecting much needed natural gas supplies to folks in New York and while improving the Airshed and system reliability in New York and New Jersey. In May, our customer National Grid had to announce that they will not be able to process new gas service requests and it’s service carry in Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island. This means they will not provide any additional connections from service until there certainty that the NESE project can move ahead. Local, commercial, residential and political support for the project is strong as the need for gas on in both in economic and environmental improvement basis is clear and compelling. We fully expect a positive decision will come in time for us to maintain our end service date just ahead of the 2020/2021 winter peaks. Next, I want to touch on a couple of key milestones that were met recently for a couple of our Transco projects. We recently applied for a FERC certificate for our Leidy South project. As a reminder, Leidy South is a proposed 580 million cubic feet per day expansion of Williams existing Pennsylvania infrastructure that will further connect Appalachian gas with growing demand centers along the Atlantic Seaboard in time for the 2021/2022 heating season. Also our FERC certificate per Southeastern Trail project is pending approval and the Southeastern Trail project is a 295 million cubic feet day expansion of the Transco pipeline, system designed to provide additional pipeline capacity to serve growing markets in the mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states by November of 2020. And additionally, we received permission in June to place a portion of the Rivervale South to Market project into early service. This project is Transco expansion of 190 million cubic feet per day to service additional customers in New Jersey and New York City. The facility is required to provide 140 million cubic feet per day have already been completed and the remaining facilities are ahead of schedule targeting the September in-service date, two months ahead of schedule. Also, our most recently announced Transco project Regional Energy Access concluded its open season and our team is finalizing negotiations with this customer base. So all-in-all, continued tremendous amount of activity on Transco, both in terms of completing existing projects that we’ve got underway like Hillabee Phase 2, which is also ahead of schedule, and a long list of projects that we have in the permitting phase, so lots of great effort going on by our engineering and construction teams with both the permitting and the construction and continued great performance on the capital execution efforts here. And lastly, let’s move onto the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, where we’re seeing a pickup in activity and significant new discoveries in and around our assets that has us position for significant free cash flow growth for years to come. Beginning in the third quarter of 2019, you’ll start seeing contributions from our Norphlet deepwater gathering system investment. Norphlet delivers gas into Williams Transco system located on one of our Gulf of Mexico platforms and from there the gas will be transported to our recently expanded Mobile Bay processing facility. First gas production on the system began in late June and we acquired the $200 million Norphlet pipeline in early July. The Norphlet deepwater gas gathering system is extremely well positioned for even more growth than the existing Appomattox system with approximately 50% of the pipeline contractual capacity remaining available for future produced times of existing discoveries in that area today. So our discovery system is also seeing new volumes from the Hadrian North and Buckskin tiebacks, which achieved first productions on our systems in during the second quarter. The Hadrian North and Buckskin liquids rich production flows to our discovery system via the Keathley Canyon Connector and ultimately to our Larose processing plant in our Paradis fractionator. These tieback opportunities are high return projects and our example of many more to come in the deepwater. Looking forward, we are very active right now discussing multiple tieback prospects around Devils Tower, our deepwater platform where production could begin as early as 2021 and on the near Blind Faith, we continue to be excited about Chevron and Total value more dedication to us where first production could be seen as early as 2023, and in the very active Western Golf facility planning for Shell’s well prospect is on a fast track and we could see FID for our system expansion here in the fourth quarter of this year. So we continue to see opportunities for significant incremental cash flow in the 2020 to 2023 timeframe from our deepwater operations. And we are really excited about the very substantial growth that we’re seeing both on acreage that’s already dedicated to it and as well new acres that we’re very confident that we’re going to be able to pick up given our expenses network. So with that, we will transition to our Q&A session. Thank you, again for your time today. We’re pleased to share with you our very strong second quarter performance and continued focus on deleveraging and the progress we’ve made on our many growth opportunities. And so with that operator, I’ll turn it over to you.
Operator:
Perfect. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Spiro Dounis with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Spiro Dounis:
Good morning, everyone. First question just around the financial guidance and being able to reiterate the 5% to 7% long term growth, I think, we were a little surprised there, just given the slight haircut on the Northeast volume outlook. And Alan, I totally understand your point on the expected slowdown and embedded in the 10% to 15% CAGR. But just still seems like something is in there, maybe offsetting some of that. So maybe just walk us through some of the drivers and how you’re able to maintain the 5% to 7%, and if you’re able to maybe even pull forward some demand driven projects as an offset.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thanks, Spiro. Well, I would just say, obviously when we laid that out, we were that 5% to 7% – we were counting on a certain level of returns from our projects. And I would just say that some of those things have gone better than that. So in other words, we’ve had quite a bit of improvement if you think about it, since we laid out that 5% to 7%. We’ve had quite a bit of improvements in areas like the Utica within see now and the UEOM transaction. That gives us some synergies and ability to keep our costs even more under control there in the Northeast. So we’ve actually, we said that 5% to 7% some time ago. And just like in any big company like Williams, there’s been some things they go down a little bit, but there’s also things that go up and of course, and we’re continuing to put pressure on our costs as we talked about. So I would say, we are being agile and responsive to those changes. And we’re also picking up advantages like Bluestem, like – you might’ve noticed our Conway NGL and frac business was up pretty significantly this quarter, which was on the backs of us building up for some of those Bluestem volumes. And so we’re continuing to take advantage where the opportunities exist and those tend to offset things where things change a little bit to the negative, just the benefit of having a big portfolio.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. That’s helpful. And then just on the faster than expected deleveraging, obviously the asset monetization played a big part in that. And it sounds like you expect that to continue. But I guess you’d just look at somebody announcements made by some of your E&P customers in the Northeast recently. Just curious if you’ve seen any shifts or reduction in appetite there from potential buyers and JV partners? Are they still looking like they want to invest more?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say, well, that has not slowed down a bit. I think that – the distinction out there, this becoming more clear to us is that, there the interest rates are so low out there and so much available to that money up against these very certain cash flows and very predictable cash flows that we have. And so as long as, you have that predictability of those cash flows, that kind of low cost money is going to be available. And we continue to be impressed by that in terms of various transactions that we’re involved in. But it’s clear to us that that’s people just are being out these very low interest rates against these very predictable cash flows. And I think we’re going to continue to see that with lower interest rates.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. That’s also helpful. Last, quick housekeeping one, we’ve got a few inbounds on this lately, but just with respect to Chesapeake and Haynesville contracts you’ve got there, could you just remind us again when those contracts roll and what your appetite is at all to renegotiate anything here?
Micheal Dunn:
As far as – this is Micheal Dunn, those contracts are dedicated to us and we – I don’t have the exact time frame on when you’re a language about when they might roll, but all that acreage is dedicated to us and we are continuing to work with Chesapeake there. And they’ve been active in there and we’ve been bringing on additional production from them, but we’ve also been very successful in capturing other business in the Haynesville besides Chesapeake that is coming into our systems there. So volume in the Haynesville is up for us. And we’re pretty pleased with what we’re seeing there right now.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, they’re in the Haynesville when we renegotiated that several years ago there we did extend the life of that contract and I believe that contract extends out into the 2030s, so that was one of the benefits we got out of that transaction when we renegotiated that a couple of years ago. So the Eagle Ford is as similar long term timeframe, so there’s not any re-ups coming in either of those areas.
Spiro Dounis:
Got it. I appreciate all that color. Thanks guys.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Gabe Moreen with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Gabe Moreen:
Good morning, everyone. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit overall about the ability to reflex CapEx higher or lower in response to the natural gas pricing environment. You gave a preliminary outlook for CapEx guidance for 2020. To the extent gas prices go maybe sub $2. Is there even more ability to reflex that downward? Maybe you can speak to that? Or is that kind of 50% reduction sort of where it goes regardless of the environment?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Gabe, good question. Yes, I would just say, there are the capital that we have out there today is backed by rate increases or MVCs. And so if there was a further pullback that occurred today I would just say that a lot of that capital that we’re talking about really wouldn’t move all that much unless there was some kind of renegotiation because most of its underpinned by obligations on the other side. So really wouldn’t expect it to move too much. I would tell you that the outside of the Northeast, obviously, these demand pool projects, which will be the bulk of our capital in 2020, of course – just further improved by low gas prices. So we don’t really see any change there. And then we still got capital going into DJ Basin, and the Wamsutter area and those who mostly getting driven off of oil prices. So we don’t see much change going on there. And of course, the deepwater is such a long term play. It didn’t really get driven by the shifts – short term shifts in commodity prices.
Gabe Moreen:
Thanks Alan. And I guess as a related follow-up. I was wondering, if you can comment a little bit on the headlines that are crossed on the Blue Racer system over the last couple of weeks. And I think related to that, there was a fairly substantial Marcellus gathering transaction that happened about a month ago and I think Williams had ownership in a couple of those systems. Was there an opportunity to maybe piggyback on that transaction and community speak to that as well?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. No. The answer is – I’ll just answer the simple part of that first and then I’ll turn it over to our General Counsel to answer the more complex question you started with. On the pinot investment that we have with Rivers – midstream up there, that is a really small interest and there is not really any opportunity there for us. So there’s really nothing on that front. We do think there’s some good consolidation opportunity up there that we think will like some our way, even with that asset, we think there’s some good opportunity around the liquids that come off of that plant that do come over to UEOM. But again, I’d just say, we were impressed with another high multiple being paid in the space out there. And I think we continue to see that. And so we continue to see our businesses mark well below that, those kind of multiples that are being paid. So we were impressed by it and we are obviously we’re paying close attention to that. I’m going to have Lane Wilson, our General Council responds to you on the Blue Racer question.
Lane Wilson:
Hey, Gabe, as you’re talking about the news lately regarding the litigation in Delaware. I will think about it. All we want to say there is, that we are cooperating and supportive of the efforts to IPO the Blue Racer business. That said, there are a number of rights around the structure and scope of certain filings that we have related to that IPO efforts. And the litigation is really just effort on our part to protect those rights. Beyond that, I think we just want to wait for the court to rule probably it occurs on time in August.
Gabe Moreen:
Thanks, Lane. I’ll let that rest. And last one for me is, it seems like a little bit of pushing out to the right on timing on some of the Rocky’s processing expansions. I think Alan, you mentioned oil – being a function of oil prices, it seems like the processing picture is pretty dynamic out there in the DJ. Can you maybe speak to that and the timing going on there?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, we’re really pretty encouraged by the continued steady growth rate that we’re working with on producers out there. We did push out Keansburg II plant and our Milton Train. We did push those out in our schedule. But we are really impressed with the growth that we’re seeing out there and the fact that we’ve already filled up just here in one quarter. We filled up that one new train we placed in service first part of April. And so we were really pleased with the way that’s going. Actually, I would tell you one of the risks I didn’t like about that basin was the peaky nature of the production growth. And so that flattening out a little bit with the same amount of reserves back. We actually picked up a very large dedication in East Greeley from extractions since we did that deal earlier. And so we continue to build dedicated acreage behind the system and a little slower growth rate with less capital going in wouldn’t hurt my feelings at all in terms of the long term return on capital that we would see out of that area. So overall, despite all the regulatory concerns, which is not to be dismissed, we actually think the basins doing very well, and the producers are doing a nice job of following through on the permits. And a lot of which were already grandfathered in the area. So I would be contrarian perhaps, but I am pretty – have a pretty positive perspective about the DJ and the actions going on out there right now.
Gabe Moreen:
Great. Thanks, Alan.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We’ll take our next question from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Good morning, Alan. Thanks for all the announcements, really helpful. I did want to follow-up on a couple of areas. The leverage guidance change last night, I noticed obviously it came down at touch without any subsequent change in the EBITDA or CapEx ranges. So I’m just wondering, is that sort of a feeling that you’re going to be at the higher end of the EBITDA range or the lower end of the CapEx range or both? Or is it some other cash flow item, like a working capital change or something like that we should pay attention to it?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, yes, great question and very fair one. I would just say that on the CapEx side, we’re probably coming in towards the lower end of that range on CapEx guidance. So that’s a piece of it. And as well, I would just say we’ve got more confidence around the way that quarter has gone. And one thing is pretty interesting if you think about it, we always show our CapEx and that’s like gross CapEx number. And so when we – for instance, the JV we have now with CPP, that’s our gross CapEx that’s embedded there as that is our gross. But our capital burden obviously, is less with CPP picking up some of that capital load from us. And so that actually helps that as well a little bit.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay. No, I think maybe I had a not quite paid attention to that latter part, so I appreciate that. I’m also pivoting a little bit wanting to follow up on Spiro’s earlier question, right? You’re gathering contracts perhaps frame it more broadly than he did. As you had referenced, you renegotiated some agreements in select areas and with select counterparties in the 2015, 2016 timeframe, I think an often instances you received an upfront cash payment and then subsequently lowered the rate as per activity and preserve, I think in total your NPV. I’m just wondering, given the pullback now and the intense focus on producer activities, if you’re having similar conversations with anybody anywhere?
Alan Armstrong:
No. Not that I’m aware of, Chris, I’m not – I don’t see anything out there right now. There’s certainly a lot of desire as we always have. There’s always desires with our producers to further streamline and align our interest out there. And so they’re certainly on that, but I don’t know of anything where there’d be an upfront payment kind of situation out there. And really the only thing, as we had that really was the Barnett that Total now the operator on. And so we’re constantly working with Total and alignment and especially in a low gas price environment. We work closely with them on reducing costs between the two of us out there, very healthy relationship and very positive one with Total there in the Barnett.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay, great. And then a final question for me, Alan is, we’ve obviously paid attention to, what you guys are seeking in Texas with the Exco situation, it feels like the RRC is going to make a decision here next week and I’m just curious if I could get a little bit more color from you on maybe the background there and if that’s a situation that might be replicated elsewhere if you have a producer that’s flaring on a system that already exists and how that may be dovetails into some of your ESG efforts.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. When it truly is one of those things where it just doesn’t, frankly, from our perspective make a lot of sense. But it is very complex background that was originally that acreage was dedicated under the Chesapeake agreement. Chesapeake sold their mineral interest to Exco but didn’t move the dedication. And so though the cost of that – those assets remains in that cost of service calculation under the Chesapeake agreement. And so just because they sold it didn’t mean it, it changed the nature of that. The gas was physically connected to our system and had previously flowed. And so this isn’t a situation where we’re saying, hey, our pipelines sitting out there and we could connect it to you. It literally is connected. And so given that this is our gas and therefore puts off a lot of H2S – has a lot of H2S component in it. And we would put off as SO2. We think, there is lot of good reasons to be making sure that’s going on. I will say that our team has worked in a very positive manner out there with Exco, despite the conflict. We’ve been working with them in a positive way to try to contain the gas and be buying the gas from them. And so we are working on continuing to improve that relationship and be constructive as we always would. So I do think, we’re going to wind up at a constructive place on that, but it is a complex issue because that actually was – is under an old Chesapeake agreement and the cost of those facilities that we installed were under that cost of service agreements. So but as far as I’m going to take that one but we are – I would say, our move out there was just one of protecting our rights. And the contract for the Chesapeake acreage out there prohibits flaring. So you shouldn’t assume that this gets extended to further actions in the area, because it’s specifically prohibits that. So don’t really see any follow on from this.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay. Well, thanks again for the time and congrats on a steady execution. It’s certainly not been lost on us.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Wanted to pick up on the balance sheet situation here, it seems like you guys been quite busy has been noted on the call with asset sales and strategic JVs, really accelerating that deleveraging process here. I was just wondering, if you could expand a bit more on how you see leverage kind of progressing here. I mean, if you’re bringing in 2020 CapEx coming down, as you noted, I want to see, the potential to continue to maybe divest assets in the West that don’t have – that are not contiguous and can’t have value chain integration? And possibly the ability of moving forward, hitting that 4.2 leverage target, if things come together there.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Jeremy, good question. I would just say, we’re always looking at that and I would say another driver for that, which is more value than just deleveraging because I think we’re on a very clear path in our mind to get there anyway. And so we feel pretty confident just on the natural path we’re on to getting there. However, given the value spread between what the private space is willing to pay for these cash flows, very certain cash flows versus what the public equity is valuing that. It just continues to provide an opportunity for us to gain value for our shareholders. And so I would say, even if it wasn’t for that for the deleveraging benefit that comes from that, we would be looking at those kinds of opportunities anyway. Just because we don’t feel like our gathering and processing assets are valued appropriately. In fact, I would question where we are today. I would question, if our pipeline assets are being valued appropriately. So we’ll continue to take advantage of that spread. And of course, it does have the benefits of continuing to do collaborate pretty rapidly as well.
Jeremy Tonet:
That’s helpful. Thanks. And just turning over to Regional Energy here, I appreciate that you’re at a kind of commercially sensitive point in the development, but just wondering if you could expand a bit more as far as kind of a shipper interest and how you see that progressing?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. Micheal Dunn here. We had a lot of interest in that project. We are working through the scenarios of delivery points and supply points and we’re optimistic that will ultimately have a very nice project there. There were several paths that were available there to shippers submitting under the open season and we’re just evaluating the submissions that we receive and configuring, various scenarios to ultimately make a great project for a Transco and our customers there.
Jeremy Tonet:
That’s helpful. That’s it for me. Thanks.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Please go ahead.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Maybe just start off on the Northeast guidance just to come back to it a little bit here. There’s sort of a delta in the CAGR between the volume metric growth rate versus EBITDA growth rate. And my understanding is that it’s a function of timing with respect to the contracts and the contract structure and so forth. In a hypothetical scenario where 2021, let’s say, was zero percent growth, would there still be some EBITDA carryover that would roll into 2021 in a scenario of zero growth?
John Chandler:
I don’t know that we have evaluated that. I would tell you we run a pretty precise model that gets us to that. But I don’t know per certain, so I don’t want to speak out of school on that. We have competence in model we have, but I don’t want to get out on a limb without the benefit of the detailed model behind that answer. I’m not saying it doesn’t, I’m just telling you I’m not certain as we sit here.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay. That makes sense. And then secondly on the Northeast, if I read your tone correctly, it sort of sounds like you’re trying to shift towards a harvest cash flows from the Northeast and kind of adjusting time kind of CapEx approach. Is that in fact correct? And as you sort of think about projects you’re noodling, where do you expect to spend the majority of your CapEx kind of on a go forward basis?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would say, I think we’ve always been on adjusting time mode there in the Northeast for many years now and making sure that we’re staying aligned with the customers and producers up there that are coming to us wanting additional capacity. And we’ll still continue to do that. We’re finishing up some pretty significant projects this year with the TXP-2 installation at Oak Grove that’s now online as well as their checkmark pipeline. Our Monarch pipeline, which is an NGL pipeline that goes to our Harrison fractionation complex. So we’ve got a lot of capital that, we are deploying this year that will be rapidly filling. So I guess in future years, I would say we’re going to be very responsive to the customers there. We are still talking to them about expansions. And so we’re not just in harvest mode, but we are still continuing in each one of those franchises. We talk to the customers about expansions and things they want to do up there, and seeing who has been very active on the cardinal influence systems and evaluating. There are new acres that they bought from Chesapeake and we’re excited to work with them on that as well. So I think we’ve got a lot of opportunities there to continue to look for expansions and it’s certainly going to be depended upon price with many of those producers, they’re very keen on watching the price and what they can achieve there with their net backs.
Shneur Gershuni:
Great. And maybe one final question. And I’m really not sure how much you can say about the pending rate case. Sort of think about the landscape out there, it’s increasingly getting extremely difficult to build greenfield projects. I’m sure you’re aware of everything that’s going on and so forth. And so I’m sort of thinking about it, an outcome where your customers are interveners are pushing for – let’s say, a lower ROE authorization. Wouldn’t that disincentivize you to build any further? I mean they can’t force you to actually expand Transco. And does that factor into the process of the negotiations about coming to a win-win scenario? Because it’s difficult to build and at the same time you have a system in place. But if they enforce a little return on you, then you have no incentive to actually build. Just wondering if you can sort of comment about that and whether that’s something that comes into the discussion process.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say it’s pretty complex issue, but maybe to bring it home to something pretty simple. The emissions reduction program that we have, which is a $1.2 billion program that benefits everybody and including directly our customers in those areas, because we reduce emissions in the areas which allows for further expansions, businesses in the area by reducing emissions, and so for their power plants, for instance. So there’s a lot of positives that come out of emissions reduction project and obviously a lot of those customers have been making those similar investments in methane, leak prevention and so forth. So they spent a lot of money on their systems under their PUCs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And I think everybody is in favor of us doing that. Getting a low return up against our portfolio of other opportunities, doesn’t really get us very far on that because we need to have economic incentive to make those investments. And so – and to your point, we have these other items and really where that nexus comes together is up against project expansions. And so if we have high return opportunities for expansion projects because things are so difficult to build, that is going to get the money up against a lower ROE. And so said another way, because somebody can’t force us to build those lower ROEs, we will have negotiated rates that generally get us to a higher rate. But that of course then just puts pressure on the capital allocation process on opportunities for those kinds of investments. And as well, things like cybersecurity and everything else that we need to invest on. So we’ve got to make sure for the health of this industry, we’ve got to make sure that those ROEs are in line with the investment opportunities across the space. And if we don’t, we’re not really – the FERC really is veering away from its responsibility to make sure that those returns are attractive enough to incentive investment in the space. And so that’s certainly a key issue as we go into those negotiations.
Micheal Dunn:
I think it’s clear to say as part of that discussion and negotiation, the difficulty with building new pipe, risks that companies, pipeline companies bear, they’ll build these new assets, certainly goes into the reality that this isn’t a super low return environment. I mean, we need an appropriate return to go along with the risk, some of the timing delays and other things that go into constructing pipelines today. So, that’s certainly part of the argument.
Shneur Gershuni:
Perfect, guys. Really appreciate the color. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho:
Good morning. So the lower Northeast guidance isn’t that surprising, just given recent commentary out of Northeast producers? But can you talk about how you came to the lowering of your guidance? Some of your producers have publicly talked down numbers, but others less though. So can you just help me reconcile how much of it is your own estimates on what you think producers are going to do and how much of it is what producers told you that they’re going to do?
Alan Armstrong:
There’s certainly small pieces in there, but I would tell you the vast majority of our information is directly in line with detailed work that we do with our producers. They can’t surprise us and want production brought online. We have to plan well in advance with them. And so while there maybe little pieces here and there, it’s pretty detailed and we keep that model up to date with the very latest work that we’re doing with producers. So Mike, I don’t know if you’d add anything to that.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. Christine, we do detailed analysis with each one of our producers. Some of the producers we meet with weekly to plan our projects and plan activities associated with either they’re well-connects that are coming online or their future expansion opportunities. So we have a very robust planning process with nearly every one of our producers up there. And that’s what we desire with every one of them and we strive for. So we do a lot of work with them in order to make sure that we’re not getting out in front of them, but we’re also meeting their needs. And we worked really hard to scale back a lot of our capital investment immediately with the producers when they told us that they were scaling back some of their turn in lines for their wells. And so we were able to very quickly take a lot of capital out of our Northeast investments that we had planned for. Therefore, that’s why we’re edging toward the lower end of our growth capital guidance just because of that activity downturn.
Christine Cho:
Okay, helpful. Thank you. And then given the changes at EQT and their customer, can you just remind us how your contracts with them work, if they’re volume commitments or acreage dedication. And if you could confirm the tenure left on that contract and whether or not you expect the changes that customer to be an opportunity or a more neutral?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say, the contracts are long-term in nature and they do come with an MBC, and it’s a MBC that ramps up over time. So we do have that. I’m not going to get into a whole lot more detailed beyond that. And I would also just add that a lot of the acreage that they are – that the new management group is very focused on is in the West Virginia area where we have a lot of the existing infrastructure in the area. So we’re encouraged to be working with them. We’ve got a lot to offer them, but our existing contracts are MBC based and they are long-term.
Christine Cho:
Okay. And then last one for me. Can you just walk us through, when do you need all your approvals by for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project in order to hit the winter 2020, 2021 in service date?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, Christine, thanks for the question. We are working through the 401 with both New York and New Jersey right now. We would hope to have those in hand this summer and order for us to be able to then achieve the 404 permit from the Corps of Engineers. And then we intend to start construction this fall on the project. Primarily the compressor station construction would occur first. That is the really the long lead pacing item here and with all the environmental windows that are associated with the offshore construction, we slotted that construction in for next summer. So the real pacing item here is the compressor station that would be on the critical path because it’s a longer duration construction. So we would expect to have in hand a 401 certifications the summer and then certainly after that, the 404 permit would have a very small public comment period that would open up and we would have that 404 permit so that we could go to the FERC and then ask for a notice to proceed and then began construction in the fall.
Christine Cho:
Great. Thank you so much for the color.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital. Please go ahead. Caller, your line is open.
Danilo Juvane:
Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. I wanted to start with the Northeast and thank you for providing guidance for the second financial year. To the extent that you have provided this information, beyond 2020, how should we think about volumetric sensitivity as it relates to EBITDA? For instance, for a percent change in the growth rate, what does that translate to from an EBITDA standpoint going forward?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think obviously it’s dependent on what the growth is. It’s not perfectly linear obviously. But I would just say, the ability to continue two have a higher EBITDA growth rate than volume growth rate will continue just because our cost structure is more and more efficient. Our unit cost continues to lower over time, and so as volumes go up. So that relationship, there’s not really any reason that that would stop for us. Some of the pretty significant increase that we’ve got here in the front end is based on some higher rates associated with the capital we placed. And so, you wouldn’t see a continuing increase to that rate, but the basic fundamental piece of lower unit costs with higher volume will continue to benefit that relationship.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks for that, Alan. Second one for me. The long-term 5% to 7% target growth rate, to the extent that there may be ongoing issues with NESE I mean, how – and we still sort of hit that growth rate going forward. How should we think about that?
Alan Armstrong:
I’m sorry, Danilo, I didn’t quite understand which growth rate. Are you talking about 5% to 7%?
Danilo Juvane:
Correct, the 5% to 7%. If there are any additional delays with NESE for instance, from a timing standpoint, is that something that’s still kind of is intact going forward?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. We’ve got – I would just say, a lot of other variables to consider other than just NESE. NESE is a very attractive project for us. But there are a number of other things, but I would certainly say that we are confident right now and that’s the occurring and that is included as we think about that 5% to 7% growth rate out there right now that is included in that. But as we mentioned, we have a lot of other things that are variables in that as well. And we tend to find a way to offset, if we did have a negative surprise on that if some time. But I would just tell you, we as a team are very confident right now in that going ahead just because we know how critical it is to that area that it does go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thank you. Those are my questions.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Good morning. Over the past year you gained gathering market share in the Northeast, driven by Atlantic Sunrise. In your 2020 5.5% growth number, can you – do you know if you’re kind of expecting to gain market share or is that the same rate that you would expect the basin to grow and you’re just in line with that?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, we’re not counting on any new customers out there in that number. So that just off our existing base of customers, if that’s your question. Obviously, different producers have different motives and different activities that go on out there. So it’s not perfectly rate-able across the space obviously. So I don’t really know what the broad base estimation is, but I can tell you that’s just from our existing customer base that we have out there in terms of our growth rate.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Okay. That makes sense. And then just as a quick follow-up, I think in 2020 there are some Gulf of Mexico MBC rollout related to Gunflint. Can you just give any range that you have of the EBITDA decline that might be associated with that?
Alan Armstrong:
We don’t have any MBCs out there.
John Chandler:
We do have some deferred revenue step downs that occur and we had some fixed payments that actually declined. So call that in the tune of $75 million roughly in that range of step down between 2019 and 2020.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Okay, perfect. Thank you so much. That’s all for me.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Becca Followill:
Good morning, guys. Following up on the Northeast gathering. So if I’m looking at Page 10 with your growth projects, is it fair to say that when you referenced the MBC that you have on this gathering that the Susquehanna Gathering for 2019 and 2020, and then the Bradford Gathering, those are going forward regardless that those have MBCs associated with them?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, just to be clear, the most of the Susquehanna Gathering doesn’t have MBCs, it has higher gathering rates. So the gathering rates are applied across all of the volumes, not across – there’s not in MBCs to be clear in Susquehanna. Bradford on the other hand is a cost of service agreement. So that is dependent on the capital being placed. And once the capital is requested, then that goes into the rate of return calculations. So I’d say another way, it’s not volume sensitive once the capital has been put in place.
Becca Followill:
So would the payback reduce your activity, these projects are still going forward?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes.
Becca Followill:
Okay. No change at this point. And then on the Gulf of Mexico. Can you quantify on the Norphlet pipeline that you acquired and then the incremental discovery volumes from Hadrian north and Buckskin tie backs. What kind of EBITDA those contribute?
Alan Armstrong:
I don’t believe we’ve provided that detail. I think we have said that the Norphlet was a five to six multiple project for us. So you can do the math on that $200 million. And that is just against the base field out there. So there are some other nice discoveries in the area that we are very well served – very well positioned to serve, but that isn’t going to come on for the next – in the next couple of years. That’ll be beyond that period.
Becca Followill:
And then finally you talked about we’ll possibly be in FID at the end of this year. But on the Page 10, it shows that as a 2022 plus. So is that – is it’s fid this years, is it still 2022 plus.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Just to be clear, my comment was our infrastructure. So our system, not speaking for the producers on that, but given our work with the producer, we would be looking to FID our work and our expansion associated the dedication’s already there. And so we would be taking action on our part based on the dedication, so just to be clear on that. So we’re not going to get ahead of Shell and Chevron on their timing on the project out there. But I would tell you it is on a very fast track within both shops.
Becca Followill:
So it would still be 2022 plus per Page 10.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes.
John Chandler:
That page is intended to represent when we believe the project really will come into full service.
Becca Followill:
Okay. Got you.
Alan Armstrong:
So we’ve got a lot of work to do out there and so our FID is necessary to make sure that we’re not on the critical path.
Becca Followill:
Got you. Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. Mr. Armstrong at this time, I will turn the conference back to you for your closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, great. Thank you for all the good questions. We’re excited to continue to report on the breadth – overall breadth of our business and the growth going on really in all areas across Transco, across the Northeast, the deepwater. And we’re excited to see the DJ started contributing as well. We appreciate all the interest and the continued support for the company. Thank you.
Operator:
The conference has now ended. Thank you for your participation. You may
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the The Williams Companies First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John Porter:
Thanks David. Good morning and thank you for your interest in the The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon we released our earnings press release and the presentation, that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin. I've also mentioned that we've refined our quarterly earnings materials and our format for this call. We've adopted a clear earnings press release format and we've integrated the previous stand-alone analyst package into the earnings release documents. So we now basically have one document there rather than two. In our presentation materials you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to generally expected accounting principles. These reconciliations schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thanks John, and good morning and thank you for joining us this morning, as we discuss our first quarter financial performance and the key investor focus areas today. As John said we took a fresh look at the format and we're going to stay pretty brief and focused in our prepared remarks, to allow time for Q&A. So let's move right into the prep -- to the presentation and take a look at our first quarter 2019 results. On Slide 2, we provided a clear view of our year-over-year financial performance and the results you see reflect continued steady and predictable operational performance and strong project execution from our E&C team. And the results reflect very little direct commodity exposure, in fact our first quarter 2019 gross margin reflects 98% fee-based versus only 2% in direct commodity margins. And these contracted fee-based revenues are not dependent on basis differentials or commodity buy-sell transactions, allowing for continued predictability and durability in our cash flow streams. So taking from the top here, cash flow from operations increased 12% demonstrating significant free cash flow in the quarter when compared with the 46% reduction in the capital expenditures you see at the bottom of the slide. A much more to say about the adjusted EBITDA performance on the next couple of slides, where you can see here that it increased 7% year-over-year without adjusting for asset sales. And also you see really nice improvement of 16% for our adjusted EPS and on DCF we were up about 8% and we've also introduced DCF per share on this summary, which grew about 7% versus last year, and then lastly our very strong 1.7 times dividend coverage also increased versus the prior year. So really nice improvement on our various earning and cash flow metrics despite the impact of significant asset sales. And now let's turn to Slide 3 and review where we finished the quarter on our leverage metrics. The leverage story of the quarter end requires some unpacking, since we have significant asset sale proceeds coming in post the quarter's end. So starting on the left-hand side of the table, if you start with the debt-to-adjusted EBITDA directly from the March 31, 2019 financial statement, you get to value of 4.92 times. However that metric includes about $727 million where the purchase of the remaining 38% interest in UEOM which we funded partially with our revolver right at the end of Q1. But we'll be refunded with proceeds reserved at the closing of the UEOM, OVM, JV that we done with CPPIB, while the latter's there. If you adjust out that $727 million in cash we plan to receive at the closing of the JV, the leverage metric falls to 4.77 times. And then furthermore, if you account for the approximately $600 million of additional proceeds we will receive from CPPIB at the closing of the JV along with the $485 million we have now received from Crestwood, where the Jackalope Gas Gathering transaction, the leverage metric falls to just over 4.5. So I'll discuss the strategic transactions and leverage goals in more detail later, but now let's move on to Slide 4 to discuss the main business drivers for our year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. On a year-over-year basis adjusted EBITDA increased just over 7% or 11%, if you adjust for asset sales. And so on this slide you can see a $37 million comparability adjustment, driven by asset sales including the adjusted EBITDA from the sale of Four Corners assets, the Gulf Coast purity pipeline and the Brazos JV accounting changes. Now moving over to look at the financial performance of the continuing business, Atlantic-Gulf led the increase with an over 20% increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by top line revenue growth from new expansion projects including Atlantic Sunrise and Gulf Connector, really very impressive growth from the Atlantic-Gulf driven primarily by continued projects that have been going into service on a regular basis on Transco. Next up looking at the Northeast GMP area we also see just over a 20% increase in year-over-year adjusted EBITDA. This was driven by 15% higher gathering volumes and higher gathering fees associated with expansion projects. Volume increases were led by the Susquehanna Supply Hub area which grew about 25%, but we also saw a double-digit growth rates in the Marcellus South and Utica and a high-single-digit growth in the Bradford and OVM areas, so overall very nice start to the year for the Northeast GMP. Finally, we have the West which is showing about a 7% decrease in year-over-year adjusted EBITDA after adjusting for bit share of the asset sales described earlier. And that decline is primarily driven by lower NGL margins due to a temporary surge in natural gas prices at Opal, and the effects of severe winter weather affecting one of our key customers production in the Wamsutter, Wyoming field. Importantly our operations team in the area was able to keep our facilities ready and available but upstream production freezing off was the culprit in the area. Next, let's look at the sequential adjusted EBITDA growth where we saw about a 2% increase since last quarter. A modest increase in EBITDA for the first quarter of 2019 versus the fourth quarter of 2018, as you can see here on Slide 5. Of course it's important to note that there were two fewer days in the quarter which by itself is about $26 million or 2% of an impact. The Atlantic-Gulf was up about $30 million over fourth quarter, driven by lower O&M cost and Transco revenues were higher related to Gulf Connector, but lower due to Gulfstar One volumes caused by well maintenance. Northeast G&P was pretty flat to the fourth quarter, where increased revenue and lower O&M expenses were offset by lower wet Utica gathering and JV EBITDA from Aux Sable for our interest -- Aux Sable and Blue Racer midstream recall that Aux Sable is an on-off interest in a processing complex in Illinois. And as we discussed in the past, the Northeast EBITDA growth in 2019 is more weighted toward the second half of 2019, and we'll be covering the outlook for the Northeast in more detail in a moment. Finally the West is pretty stable compared to 4Q of 2018. Revenues in O&M were relatively flat sequentially and per unit NGL margins were quite a bit weaker. However on a sequential basis, those lower per unit NGL margins were more than offset by the favorable change we had in our NGL line fill evaluation margins. And as you may recall, our fourth quarter 2018 marketing margins were unfavorable impacted by the same losses in marketing inventory. So as prices move up and down, the line fill evaluation is something that swings up and down. Lastly in the West also we did see some nice sequential double-digit growth in the Haynesville. Overall volumes were flat due to the severe weather in the first quarter of 2019, again from the Wamsutter volumes which were down in 1Q from weathers, mentioned earlier. So generally Haynesville, we had some nice growth in the Haynesville, but it's pretty well offset by the long set of volume decline in increase off there. In summary, 1Q adjusted EBITDA was within 1% of our business plan overall. And as we've said before, we see the overall 2019 growth be weighted more toward the second half of the year, due primarily to the shape of the Northeast EBITDA growth. So let's move to Slide 6, where we'll spend the remainder of the prepared remarks focused on our views around some of the topics we most frequently discussed with our investors. The first item we'll be discussing is our financial status update. A lot has changed since we originally issued our 2019 guidance about a year ago. From a macro perspective we've seen our producer customers pressure to pull back on capital investment and we've seen a significant downward shift in NGL margins. We've also had five important portfolio optimization transactions including the Four Corners of DJ Basin transaction, the sale of our Gulf Coast purity business, our Northeast JV that which mentioned and most recently the sale of our Niobrara business. So lots of moving parts since we had laid out our guidance this time last year. But I'm pleased to confirm that despite these unforecasted changes, we are maintaining our guidance ranges for adjusted EBITDA DCF and dividend coverage ratio. We are actually raising our guidance for adjusted EPS to $0.95 at the midpoint due primarily to some lower depreciation expenses caused by last year's Bernard impairment and lower expected interest expense, thanks to deleveraging efforts. If you look in the Appendix at Slide 13, you can also see that we've added a DCF per share metric and provided a bridge between DCF per share and EPS. We've had lots of discussions with investors about the very significant non-cash charges that impact our EPS, so we've given more visibility in the development. On the growth capital expenditures front, we've seen quite a bit of changes since last year associated with deleveraging efforts and new projects like the Bluestem Pipeline. And as we'll discuss further in the moment, we are targeting a lowering of our CapEx in the Northeast G&P business, to respond to the producer activity in the region. So our teams are doing a really nice job of making sure that we bring that capital on just in time and don't get anything out in front of the drilling operation. So really nice work by our teams here, that are constantly operating in a very agile motive there. So when you net all of these changes we're revising our consolidated growth CapEx guidance to a new midpoint of $2.4 billion, down from the $2.8 billion midpoint that was provided with our fourth quarter earnings release. And when you factor in the new Northeast JV, our total contributions from JV partners this year take up another $120 million in addition to that $400 million reduction in the stated growth capital. And when you consider the proceeds we received from the Northeast JV and Niobrara transactions along with our excess cash after dividends, we expect to fund our 2019 capital expenditure need with operating cash flows and proceeds from these transactions. The effects of our portfolio optimization transactions along with our lower capital expenditure forecast has had a favorable effect on our 2019 year-end book debt-to-adjusted EBITDA, which we now expect to be under 4.6 times. Looking beyond 2019, we are still expecting 5% to 7% annual adjusted EBITDA growth over the long-term. So let's move on to the next topic which is an update on the Northeast growth. As you'll probably recall at our third quarter earnings call, we introduce forecasted 15% CAGR for the Northeast area gathering volumes growth for 2018 through 2021. Since then, we continue to work with our producer customers during two more forecasting cycles. And since last fall delays in outages on Mariner East and delays on major gas takeaway pipeline like MVP have dampened the realized price expectations for producers in the area on a forecasted basis. So despite this price decline, I'm pleased to say that we are still expecting to see a 15% growth rate again this year on gathered volumes and a slightly higher EBITDA growth rate for the Northeast in 2019. Most of this is on the backs of great performers like Cabin and Southwestern. But increasingly we will see the impacts of additional investments by Encino on their new Utic acreage. With the recent weakening of forecasted commodity prices of fewer producer customers have focused on tuning their drilling CapEx, directly to their free cash flows and therefore producer forecast at this point where 2020 and 2021 are very sensitive to forecasted pricing. And I think very important to note there, that a lot of the planning is done around forecasted pricing. And as prices change we see producers shifting that obviously. Right now, I would say with the pressure we've seen in local NGL prices in the area that has pulled some of the capital out of some of the wet Marcellus areas, and that is embedded in the forecast. We think it is wise and good for long-term sustainability for our producer customers to take this agile and measured approach, and we applause the capital discipline. Over the long-term we believe that demand growth ultimately will drive producer volumes. Demand from converted power generation, LNG exports and new industrial loads is continuing to grow after several years of heavy capital investment and construction. And now we are seeing a second wave as the Permian gas supplies have further convinced the world that the U.S. has sustainable low gas supplies for decades to come. As a result we don't believe that the current downturn in pricing is sustainable giving the continuous growth in natural gas demand, coupled with the discipline we have seen from the producer community. And while Permian supplies are a needed resources to help build the demand, we still have two-thirds of our gas supplies here in the U.S. being generated by gas, only directed drilling that will have to have a price signal and has become evident that we simply can't get the infrastructure build fast enough out of the Permian to keep up with the demand it continues to grow. While those fundamentals continue to support our steady and sustainable long-term growth we do want to be transparent about the producers forecast as they relate to our near-term gathering volume and growth rate using the current detailed forecast from our producers, our gathering volumes CAGR is expected to be a very impressive 10% to 15% growth through 2021. And while our EBITDA CAGR would still come out at or above 15% through the same period. Also on this front, I'm pleased to say that our capital programs are closely aligned with our producers, allowing us to reduce growth CapEx to more efficiently placed capital against the same amount of producible reserves. Though we are encouraged to see the level of EBITDA growth of our Northeast G&P business, can continue to generate even with reduced capital being applied and this combined with synergies from our new JV will allow us to place capital more efficiently than ever in this important basin. Next up, let's get an update on our deleveraging efforts. With that excellent execution this year on our portfolio optimization efforts, the Northeast JV transaction with CPPIB accomplished multiple benefits for the Company. Consolidating the UEOM and the OVM systems while bringing up immediate cash for deleveraging and aligning us with long-term strategic partner who also owns and controls one of the most important customers in the area, Encino. Encino has attracted some very experiencing capable personnel and we are excited to be forming another key mutually beneficial relationship in the region, much like we have with Cabot and Southwestern today. The Niobrara transaction allowed us to accelerate deleveraging by exiting an area that wasn't strategically connected to the rest of our business network, and this transaction was priced at the same strong mid-teens multiples, we've realized in other portfolio optimization transactions. So no changes to our long-term leverage target of 4.2, which we target to hit by the end of 2021, while maintaining the 5% to 7% annual growth targets over this period. So let's move on to Slide 7 and start with an update on the Transco rate case. As we previously discussed, we filed for an annual rate increase in our August 2018 filing. And those new higher rates went into effect on March 1. So we're currently receiving the higher cash payments from our customers subject to refund, but you won't see that reflected in our results as we're reserving the increase pending ongoing settlement negotiations. On the settlement progress front we've had two conferences recently and we'll have another in May. The negotiations are confidential as long as we remain in the settlement process, so I can't share where we stand at the counter parties at this time. I can tell you that the settlement negotiations are likely to continue for many months and could extend into the next year. We're hopeful that the settlement can ultimately be reached without the need for litigation and that the settlement would include the $1.2 billion emissions reduction investment opportunities. And we continue to present any upside from the rate case -- sorry continued to not have any of that upside build from the rate case reflected in our financial guidance. And let's also touch on the status of Transco's major growth projects here. Lots of news out there these days and questions regarding the effects of the recent Presidential Executive Order might have for our projects. Obviously Williams supports efforts to foster coordination, predictability and transparency in the federal environmental reviews and the permitting process for energy infrastructure projects. Along those lines, we were actually very impressed with the level of detail that appeared in the executive order on complex issues like the EPA's water quality certification requirements and we are appreciative of the administration's efforts and in strong support of a sustainable approach to ensuring consistent application of EPA's regulation. However, we know that any major shifts in policy is coming out, the executive order will likely be challenged by oneness of infrastructure and fossil fuels no matter how clean. We deal with these permitting challenges on a daily basis and our project development teams consistently do great job of navigating those. And so beyond presidential orders, we continue to advance our key New York and New Jersey projects like the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, the Rivervale South expansion and our Gateway expansion by demonstrating their critical importance to the markets they serve and the quality of our execution track record, as was most recently demonstrated by our teams on Atlantic Sunrise. Transco's large scale existing right of way and vast interconnection network are really the best way to bring clean, safe affordable and reliable natural gas with these Northeast population centers, that allow these regions to continue to lower the greenhouse gas emissions. And to that end, we continue to press on that 20-plus Transco projects we currently have in development, including the most recently announced Regional Energy Access project, the binding open season for our Regional Energy Access was extended from April 8 to May 8 to give shippers additional time to get the approvals they needed not for just the indication of interest, but for binding commitments. And we have been impressed with the interests the project has garnered. We are targeting a final investment decision in the third quarter of this year with pre-filing to follow. And next up, I'll touch on our growth in the DJ Basin area. Since February there has been ongoing developments in Colorado as the new executive and legislative leadership of the state took action to address oil and gas development laws. Ultimately the new legislation seems to be a much more balanced approach than what we saw last fall with the sale proposition went well, with the vast majority of oil and gas activity occurring in the industry friendly wealth county area. We welcome the shift and authority to local counties and municipalities and we will continue to monitor as regulations are developed. In fact our teams are working hard right now to keep up with the growth, supported by a long backlog of currently permitted wells. During early April, we started up our new $200 million cubic feet a day Fort Lupton III cryo and train is running very reliably and great jobs by the team getting started up safely. And construction is progressing very nicely on our teams Keenesburg I cryo that should be online in the third quarter of this year. And in February, we signed up another new pact of gas along with NGL marketing rights, right in that same area where we're continuing to develop infrastructure. So really very pleased right now with the strong demand for reliable and gathering processing services in the area, and we look forward to continued growth and support for our NGL marketing businesses including the Bluestem pipeline projects and associated upgrades at Convoy. And next on the deep water. Last but not least, we have seen a steady increase in that, pivoting the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. For a substantial new discoveries that are being made in close proximity to our assets. This is an area where our existing assets and acreage dedications give us tremendous competitive advantages and we are thrilled to see the dramatic rebound of activity that is focused on keeping costs and cycle times low by utilizing existing infrastructure like ours. This year we'll see EBITDA contributions from our Northwest projects including those from the purchase of the Northwest Pipeline and additions to our Mobile Bay processing complex, that we did last year and that is going to get paid for. Actually our Northwest Pipeline purchase gets paid for, once first oil begins later this year and we have line of sight to existing new potential business with likely FIDs in 2020, on several major projects that would lead to large incremental free cash flows on our existing assets base in 2022 and beyond. So as I promised on the introductory side, we'll try to keep things brief today. But we are pleased to be able to update you on the solid first quarter performance and great transactional progress that is accelerating our natural rate of deleveraging. With that, let's continue the discussion in our Q&A session.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Jeremy Tonet of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet:
Wanted to start-off with the Northeast G&P and I was wondering if maybe you can provide a little bit more detail with the volume growth that you're talking about. Maybe some thoughts on the cadence there how you see that kind of progressing over the next several years, based on producer conversations and also kind of CapEx specific to this area? Has that lightened up at all?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, in terms of cadence I would just say right now we've got a lot of activity, a lot of wells being and pad being turned in the line right now as we speak actually here in the last month. So a lot happening out there right now, it's all over the place both in the Northeast and the Southwest. And so what's going on that, I would say in the Utica area the Encino team there has just now taking over operations of that area, and transition from Chesapeake and that we are really working closely with them to have kind of the same kind of integrated approach to development and growth development that we have with both Cabot and Southwestern, so really excited about the team they've pulled together there at Encino and our ability to work with them. In terms of kind of the cadence there, I would just say certainly, Cabot intending to lead the way with development with 20% kind of growth. And so I would the Northeast PA continues, they have continued to invest with or support our expansions of further expansion on our gathering systems out there. And of course we're very interested in additional takeaway capacity out of the area, given the big reserves and the low cost reserves they have in the area. But I would say in the Northeast there really hasn't been anything other than just continued steady performance by Cabot, and we're starting to see that kind of spread in to some of the other areas as well like in the Bradford area. So Northeast, so I think is very predictable and steady. The areas that have more I would say volatility in terms of ups and downs and perhaps things are little more reactive -- the prices is in the west gas areas like I mentioned earlier, both the Marcellus wet and the Utica wet. And a lot of that, I would tell you is driven by pretty sharp price -- realized price decline on NGLs that were associated with the Mariner East up and down, in the course of now hoping for expanded capacity out of their own Mariner East 2. So I would say that the pricing forecast on NGL has been difficult to predict. And of course the gas takeaway situation particularly with the MVP has been pushed back a little bit as well. So I think those things will resolve themselves as we get in. Obviously as we get into 2020, I think those things will resolve themselves. But we are seeing those producers be very responsive and I would say very strict about living within their cash flows and their forecasted cash flows. Of course that requires them to forecast prices. But I think that's what we can look to in terms of signals there. Our drilled outflow continues to be pretty robust for both the Southwest PA and the Utica area, a lot of new capital. But we're finding ways to really trim that back, and have a capital come on just in time, as the production comes on and so that's what you see we requested in some of our capital pullback and redemption in capital, that you see here in our guidance.
Jeremy Tonet:
That's helpful. Thanks for that. And turning to UEO-OMV the combination there, just wondering if you might be able to provide a little bit more detail as far as some of the synergies you see, bringing those two assets together as far as capital efficiency improvements.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question. It's reeling on two fronts. First of all, the very simple front there, is on the liquids front, so we have the Moundsville fractionator sitting there, that has been running right up against its maximum capacity and we had some investments, that was going to be required there to continue to operate that facility, and to expand it. And now we're going to enjoy being able to put those liquids through our new pipeline that we're building over to the Harrison fractionator. And so, we'll be taking those liquids over to the excess capacity, big excess capacity that exists at the Kensington fractionator. And so they were sitting there a lot of the latent capacity on the fractionation side, and better markets there at the Kensington area. So effectively allows us to shift our focus of growth for fractionation and reduce any investment required at Moundsville, and quickly take that capital out of our capital plan, so that's the simple side, on the more complex side we also are looking at ways to take advantage with the excess processing capacity that UEOM enjoys. And we're starting to run up on the capacity constraints there at OVM. And if growth continues there we'll be looking for ways to move volumes over to UEO as well. So those are kind of some of the obvious issues, obviously there is management consolidation and overhead consolidation, that's beneficial to us. But a lot of it really just has relates to being able to take capital out of our plan that would have otherwise been in there.
Jeremy Tonet:
That's really helpful. Thanks. And last one if I could, it seems like NESE could really lower CO2 emissions by displacing dirtier fuels. Just wondering how that messaging is resonating in the communities that you're looking to operate in there? When do you see kind of the path forward at this point as far as permits been -- when construction could start there?
Micheal Dunn:
We absolutely think that NESE is a key piece of the puzzle in the New York city and New Jersey metropolitan to reduce emissions especially CO2 emissions, it's very dramatic in regard to the emissions profile of the fuel oil. It's currently being used and converted to natural gas up there. And we're going to be a key part of that, continuing opportunity to convert. If NESE gets approved and we think it will and gets built. The permitting process is currently in the late stages here. We expect to receive a FERC certificate for that project any day now. And the 401 Certification deadline in New York was mid-May. And then the 401 Certification deadline in New Jersey is mid-June. So we would expect several of those permits to come to the forefront here in rapid fashion.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Shneur Gershuni of UBS. Please go ahead.
Shneur Gershuni:
Just sort to follow up on the Northeast questions a little bit. Your first and foremost just the consolidation of UEO into Williams or the UEO transaction rather. Is that sort of change your weighted average growth rate kind of beyond 2019? And when you talked about being able to take down CapEx what you've done materially for this year, does this CapEx efficiency benefit roll into 2020 and beyond?
Alan Armstrong:
And first of all on the gathering volume fees it really doesn't change that, because remember we're already operating the gathering systems that feed into UEOs, so those gathering volumes would have already been in there, so their drilling not any change on that UEO, is primarily just the fractionation of processing facilities downstream to that. So that's really no change from that. So that's really no change from that. On the question about capital savings going forward, I would say a big chunk of the capital savings and the synergies are actually now forward-looking as we take advantage of being able to balance between the two processing complexes and the liquid. So actually a lot of the capital is even more -- lot of the gathering capital really won't change that much. If you think about, that it's really on the processing and fractionation capital, that will be able to shift volumes into areas that would not have put expansions into, I think it would --.
Shneur Gershuni:
Great color. Just another follow-up kind of a bigger picture question. You sort of talked about in your prepared remarks about a longer-term growth rate of 5% to 7% for EBITDA. Can you talk about what kind of capital program would be needed to support that type of long-term growth rate? And could we assume it would be funded at least 50% from internally generated cash flows?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. And I'll maybe have John Chandler take that in terms of where we would go with that. As we said the $2.5 billion to $3 billion, assuming a little more moderated returns than we've been enjoying, generates that 5% to 7% growth rate. And so obviously as we can high-grade our investments that improves, and bring in synergies like we're doing on these JVs. But generally that $2.5 billion to $3 billion is what we think it takes to grow that 5% and 7%. And I'll let John talk about the funding.
John Chandler:
I think that's fair. As we look forward in our projections today, using -- this $2.5 billion, you use that as the number, a tight expansion capital. And as we look to our forecast, we're able to fund that completely and entirely through excess cash flow. And obviously some new leverage in the future but with the growth of our EBITDA we're able to maintain and continue to lower our leverage ratio going forward. And fund that capital exports, that kind of EBITDA growth.
Shneur Gershuni:
So with your -- effectively once you hit your leverage target, will there then be room to consider share repurchase business while also?
John Chandler:
We had to talk about that once we get there. There is still work to do obviously between 4 -- under 4.6 to 4.2, there is still quite a bit of work for us to do. So I think we've got time to talk about that, but certainly when we get to the point where our leverage targets or where they need to be, we will be generating a significant amount of excess cash flow.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, so I would just say on that front, we'll see what the markets look like when we get to that point. But -- and so is kind of hard to answer that, because we're speculating on what the returns would be on that investment versus our other investment. But I can't tell you we're constantly allocating out capital return project, that a lot of the industry would accept. And so I think, there will be a balance there between increased capital investment opportunity, is another thing we can do with that capital. And like I said, we're constantly allocating away projects today as we continue to press on deleveraging the business.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay. And one last question if I may. Your excitement level about the Gulf of Mexico seems to be increasing. You sort of touched on your prepared remarks, but I was wondering if you can sort of expand on the opportunities that you see there and how we can -- should be thinking about it on a go-forward basis?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, the opportunities are getting to be so clinical -- that kind of get hard to keep track honestly -- but some of very certain opportunities exist around the Gulf, West, our operations around the Perdido area. Obviously, the well prospect out there is going to be a big mover for us. And Shell just announced a little bit earlier this month or sorry in April the Blacktip discovery which is also another very large discovery in that Perdido belt area. And then to the south of that of course, the Mexico Perdido is even a much larger kind of where a magnitude opportunity, that we're extremely well-positioned for. So on the Western Gulf it's going to be a matter of maximizing our return on the investments. There is plenty of production to fill up our existing capacity and then to more. And so really important opportunities for us out there, and we're just extremely well-positioned both contractually and with the infrastructure that we have in place out here today. If you move over to Gulf East of course, really excited about the Ballymore prospect that will likely get produced across the Blind Faith -- Chevron Blind Faith platform. And that's also a very large find there. And again just big free incremental cash flows coming our way with very little to no capital on our part, so we're excited about that. And then the Northwest prospect while we kind of thought that was almost singular as an investment. Originally, we like the returns just singularly across that one field. We've seen a lot of new development out there around the North -- not just by Shell but also by Chevron, now in that area. And so, what's going on in the central Gulf, lots of new opportunities. The LLOG-Repsol JV will bring some promise to us in the area, and a lot of new development is going on there as well. So I'm not even getting into the multitude of the smaller projects that have been in our way. But a lot of the reason that I think we're so fortunate is that in the past, what we saw was producers really looking to add big reserves, and when oil was $80 to $90, as they were enjoying prior to '14, there wasn't so much focus on the use of existing infrastructure to keep cost down. But now with the lower prices we're seeing a huge focus on utilizing existing infrastructure. And therefore that means we're not having to build a bunch of new capital, it's just development in and around our existing assets and that is really good for us and really good for the industry as a whole. And so I would say, if I was going to describe one big change from the last time we saw the deepwater take off, that is really it. But there is this intense focus on the utilization of the existing infrastructure. And of course that, when you are -- already have a lot of the big gaps infrastructure in the deepwater that bodes very well.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, I'd like to add to that -- on the opportunity, so that was a great negotiation for us to have with Shell there where we acquired the pipeline that they build, it was pretty negotiated with the return. And we're obligated obviously to move their gas to shore through our Mobile Bay facilities, where we have percent of liquids contract with them to process that gas. But the strategic value there additionally to us is the fact that pipeline won't be full. And from day one we can go out and acquire other business to bring through that with subsea tie-backs into that Northwest pipeline, that will purchase upon first gas movement there. So a great opportunity for us to take advantage of that facility, that it's already been build, so the construction risk is taken away, as well as the timing risk has been taken away, because we don't pay for it until the gas flows.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Christine Cho of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho:
Good morning, everyone. You guys have talked about wanting to consolidate Northeast for some time. And obviously the UEOM tend to actually test you in that direction. How should we think about the potential for Blue Racer to be included under that umbrella?
Alan Armstrong:
Great question, Christine as always. And I would just say the -- a lot of value in that combination, we're working through some various transactions to try to extract some of that other than through direct control of the asset. But certainly a lot of opportunity there. But I would just say we haven't been able to get there from a price standpoint, we haven't been able to get to what we thought it make sense for us on that. And so I would say lots of opportunity, but we remain patient and will remain patient with making those combinations. So, but I do see some opportunity just contractually to continue to find ways to utilize common facilities out there and I think that's a -- step in the middle if we can't reach agreement on a broader transaction.
Christine Cho:
Okay. And then you guys are tracking to get to your targeted leverage faster than planned. Should we think that there are any other non-core aspects that you're contemplating selling? Or is this sort of it?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say we're always -- look we continue to see this big spread between what our stock is trading for, versus what these assets are selling for. So if we can do those kind of transactions in a way that don't dilute our future and our -- and stand in a way of accomplishing our strategies then we'll continue to look through those. But we don't have anything specific on the drawing boards. And I think as we said forth, I think looking to our strategy and looking to how things link in our asset base, is not because we have some written rules, that says we have to have the downstream business for it to be a core asset. But when it comes to placing capital and new capital it's competing in this capital allocation process, that we're constantly running. If it doesn't enjoy the downstream benefits and the coupon that both from a downstream benefit, the incremental returns just don't stand out. And so, Niobrara is actually a perfect example of that. The returns just on the stand-alone G&P basis there, just didn't stand up well within our capital allocation program. So we had both partners and customers -- frustrated with our lack of interest in investing at those return levels. And wasn't for any reason other than a distant stack up within our capital allocation process. And so that's why we are fixated on that and just because those areas that are in growth tend to drive those higher returns, and therefore make it through our capital allocation process. So I think that's about as much as I can tell you. Do we have site and then check where at this time, the answer is no.
Micheal Dunn:
I would also say though there is possibly cheap money looking for opportunity out in the marketplace and very similar to our Four Corners asset. We get approached by the market all the time on asset. So again to Alan's point, well we don't have anything specific thing targeted and we're constantly being approached.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Gabriel Moreen of Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen:
I just had a quick question on the Transco rate case and some of the associated details around that. It seems like you timeline there has been extended, around settlement discussions. Can you just talk a little the decisions to kind of keep going with some discussions and having extended timeline here fairly considerably, I assume you're pretty confident in terms of your position there, so why not a move -- to maybe litigate a little bit earlier than end of 2020? And related to that, the -- emissions reductions expanded at Transco. Is there, is that going to be part of the rate cast or separated out and is that something you would spend before the rate case was concluded?
Micheal Dunn:
I wouldn't say it's necessarily extended out per se, it's just a process we have to go through in front of a administrative law judge there and regards to trying to reach resettlement. So we think it's prudent to continue that process, until we reach impasse with our customers, but we certainly not there yet. So we're rapidly working with them to try to come to a settlement that both sides appreciate and like. But it certainly doesn't mean we won't be willing to litigate that, we would impasse and certainly the administrative law judge will assist us in getting there. Hopefully, quickly, so that we can don't move on to litigation path, that settlement is not, where we ultimately end up, but we would love to have a settlement with our customers there, we think it's a proper way to -- hopefully to achieve a good outcome for both sides. But, we're not afraid of litigation path as well. Specifically on the emissions reduction, so the way we've contemplated that it would be a separate tracker as we spend the capital, we would basically change the rate upwards to accommodate the compression that's been replaced there. And it's really just allows us to do that, as if we were going through a rate case, so to speak. Without having to go for a rate case we'd be able to increase those rate, as we deploy that capital to reduce those emissions along the Transco pipeline system. And so it's ultimately we don't get the emissions tracker, that would make it more likely that we would have more rate cases coming, to be able to accommodate those emissions reductions projects within our rates.
Gabriel Moreen:
And then maybe if I can just get more of an update sort of on Bluestem and how discussions are going on that? It looks there, recent oil prices has been motivating customers a little bit more. And to what extent you're looking at partners there? Where it may stack up sort of on the returns profile or within your capital backlog?
Chad Zamarin:
I would just say, we continued to work on projects in the Permian to Transco markets. But we've seen recent dislocation in basis from the basin obviously to the coast. But if you look at the forward curves, I think the market has been a little slow to recognize, that might be long-term sustainable. So we're going to be really, I think cautious in ensuring that any project that we would proceed with this -- is one and that has really solid fundamentals and economics. I think if we were to move forward it would be with partners. We are not looking to make an investment of that scale, out of the basin on our own. And ultimately I think, what's important to us is to continue to build Transco's market connectivity both on the supply and on the demand side. And so we believe those volumes ultimately wants to get to the best market and so we think Transco offers those very best market. So again, we continue to explore participating in a project from the Permian to the Gulf coast. We have volumes, with our partnership with Brazos Midstream that we can leverage for the purpose of benefiting and improving a project. But again I think the economics that we've looked at, at least the date on the project that have gone forward and that have been contemplated haven't yet met our expectations, alongside the inventory of opportunities that we have. And so we'll continue to work it. And again, I think the most important thing for us to be -- we make sure that Permian gas has a good home to come to along our Transco market.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Colton Bean of Tudor Pickering Holt & Company. Please go ahead.
Colton Bean:
Good morning. Actually, just a follow-up on the Bluebonnet discussions there. Have you seen any shift in producer willingness to flare given kind of the extreme focus on ESG for the upstream community over the last couple of months?
John Chandler:
Yes, I think we continue to see quite a bit of flare, but I do think the producers are interested in getting gas to market. I think they're looking forward to release coming later in the year, when the first long-haul project comes online. We've seen significant volumes shut-in, in the alpine high area. And so we have seen, I think restrictions associated with gas prices in Waha. So I think we get a lot of questions around with this large, the basis is why we haven't seen a stronger move toward the additional project. I think what we're seeing is, it takes, as Alan mentioned in his comments, it takes a lot of time and effort to create infrastructure that can move all the way from West Texas to the market. And so, I think we'll continue to see a desire to reduce flare, but the options today are either shutting in or waiting for infrastructure to be built and it take some time. We think another project needs to get built, but again if you look at the curve, the forward curves from basis from Waha to Henry Hub, right now, those prices don't support an investment in a long-haul pipeline. So until we see producers and end market users willing to step-up for a longer terms and better economics. And I think we'll continue to see challenges in the basin.
Colton Bean:
Got it. And just circling back to the Q1 results here. So on the downtick in the Atlantic-Gulf operating expense, is that a function of timing on the maintenance spend? Or is there something more structural or nature to point too?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, this is Michael. It's not really, it's more of -- we had some one-off issues last year, that specifically in our unregulated business with turbine overhauls and things of that nature, that contributed to that higher expense in the comparable quarter in 2018. So it's not really a structural issue, it's just a timing issue of activity.
Colton Bean:
Got it. And so 2018 was probably an elevated level and this maybe a better look at the go-forward rate?
Micheal Dunn:
Well, I'm not going to be predictor of go-forward rates with the exception of saying that, it is lumpy, because of timing and specific terminal overhauls. They're pretty expensive, a couple of million dollars to terminal overhauls and it have to be done at certain intervals of run time hours. And so we have to accomplish those and we had the run time hours, and so it's highly dependent upon the run time of the equipment. For example, when we have to do those, and we have emerging problems, we have to go take care of. And I would also say in 2018 quarter we also did a lot of work on our reciprocating compression on the Transco system, that had to be accomplished as well. So it's just a timing of overhauls aspect and it's highly dependent upon run time.
Colton Bean:
And just a quick final clarification here. For the $400 million reduction of the capital program, I think you all noted previously that around $90 million was associated with Jackalope. So is the balance of the entirety there solely attributable to the Northeast? And as we think about the Northeast, Alan I think you mentioned a just-in-time element for some of the reductions. Does that imply that any of this has shifted to 2020? Or should we think about it more in terms of the processing discussion you outlined?
Alan Armstrong:
First of all, it's combination on the last part of your question. It is a combination of stuff getting pushed out, as well as ability to not have to for instance, continue to expand at Oak Grove and Moundsville. So yes it's getting pushed into '20 but you'll see some of the benefit of synergy show up in '20 would offset that. And then finally on your question of the $90 million, the Jackalope $400 million elsewhere. Well, I just say a lot of moving parts, of course we had a little bit of cost in there for getting on with the fractionation at Bellevue, as well as Bluestem, who is going in there. Some capital coming out of the Northeast and some lower capital for the year, just as these projects, we always have a lot of contingency built into these projects, and those push out and get closer, you saw we advanced one of our Transco projects in the 2020. And so we're actually seeing really good performance on that front. But for the most part, it is coming out of the Northeast, but not all.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from T.J. Schultz of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
T.J. Schultz:
On the executive order, you guys highlighted what's your expectation from the DOE, is it worse to submit report just on timing to get more clarity around that? And any input you all are having on that process?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, obviously on the Presidential Executive Order, first of all we were really impressed with the work that was done by the various attorneys -- staff attorneys around EPA. I think everybody recognize that the -- some of the so called guidelines and I'll use quotes around that, term guidelines had been put in place during the Obama administration, that has become treated almost like rules by the state and in fact, there never really been a regulatory process to establish that. And I think the appropriately the EPA administration is regardless of which part of the affiliation you're interested in. I think they thought, that was not proper administration and regulation and so they're trying to bring clarity to that. And I think exactly what we've been asking for, we haven't been asking for easier regulations, we've been asking for clear and consistent regulations. And that's exactly what we thought the order tried to address without overreaching toward any one particular project. So it's something that need to be cleaned up. And if you really dig into that, it's actually a very astute and a detailed approach to it, that we really applaud. I think it's exactly big step in the right direction and it's obvious to us, and there was great experts involved in that. So well, I don't see it being a miracle tier for anyone of our particular projects that we have out there right now. I do see it as a big step in the right direction for bringing clarity and consistency between how the states and the Fed still with Clean Water Act regs within the EPA. So pretty impressed frankly with sophistication of that work.
T.J. Schultz:
Okay. It makes sense. Just one more, you mentioned on Bellevue a couple of times, may be ignoring timing on end service, they've built a lot of that project. Assuming they get to Station 165, you talked about synergy, has that moved into commercializing anything at this point, if they have to wait on firmer in-service, just any color on the benefits there see you all. Thanks.
Micheal Dunn:
Sorry, just to clarify you were talking about Moundsville pipeline is that correct?
T.J. Schultz:
Yes, sorry about that. Moundsville pipeline.
Micheal Dunn:
Okay. Yes, thank you. This is Michael. Just seeing what the Moundsville pipeline backers have said about their project, obviously they feel certainty in regard to completing their project. And we're obviously watching that very closely along with them. And ultimately we'll get Station 165 area and they're very likely should we take way opportunities for us, from that point on the Transco system, once that project gets closer to some certainty there. So we're certainly looking at that and willing to take on any customer-related projects, that would like to move that gas away from the Station 165, we certainly think there is opportunity to do that.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Hey, good morning. It looks like latest growth into Transco from the Northeast Marcellus, around 4.5 Bcf/d including Atlantic Sunrise. Is that effectively the max capacity for Transco there? Is there anyway that you could take more gas than you paid for -- just a compression anything like that?
Micheal Dunn:
Obviously say, there is -- just to remind everybody on that. Transco's capacity is fully sold, so it's consistently sold out of the [Technical Difficulty]. And so really what we're talking about is just the interrupt, just lows and how much we can physically flow during the period and that's very dependent on local loads where the gas need to be delivered to. And so there is a lot of variables that go into play there. But I would say generally, we are constantly maximizing capacity out of that basin right now, because the margin support that. But a lot of that is managed by the shippers, in other words they're the one who is dictating where they want to move the gas to and from. So a lot of that has been calculated by them. But I think that's where I would say every day we're optimizing as much as we can move that, that area.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
Okay. That's helpful.
Micheal Dunn:
[Indiscernible] are staying full like Atlantic Sunrise has virtually been full almost since day one. So that does bode well for the future opportunities to move additional expansion volumes out of there with new projects. So Regional Energy Access, Jean Ann, Regional Energy Access though takes advantage of a lot of existing infrastructure as does the Leidy South project, that we're working on for National Fuel Gas and for Cabot. And in so there is obviously some pretty easy expansions out of the area, relatively the project seems better working on that [Indiscernible] we got a lot of compression, we can do and a little bit of looping to do -- to add capacity out of that area.
Jean Ann Salisbury:
That's really helpful. Thank you. I mean, do you still have any spare capacity in gathering in the Haynesville, I mean perhaps in the Eagle Ford or is your system pretty much maxed out there?
Micheal Dunn:
I'll say in the Haynesville we bumped up against the top-end, there quite often as well pads come on. We get maximum capacity there last year and continue to find new volumes coming in there, that would try to max capacity. So we're pretty maxed out of Haynesville from time-to-time and it's highly dependent upon, from the [Indiscernible] on those wells. And then the Eagle Ford we continue to have new well connect opportunity there as well. And we continue to expand our systems there as needed for the producer customers out there. Most of that requires additional compression when we bring that online and some new well connect capital equivalent and possible looping. So it's just highly dependent upon where the producers are drilling their pad. Yes, -- system like the Haynesville, that system actually has South and North, component to it. And so what you might see one part of the system get loaded up, the southern part, maybe more than the north sometimes or vice versa, that really dictates. So it's not like, it's a processing plant, we just have a fixed amount of capacity through the plans, the system, the capacity is very dependent on where the gas goes up. But our team has done a really nice job out there, working with other midstream operators in the area, they use up capacity to be able to cross haul between systems and they continue to do that. On the Eagle Ford we would remind you that, that is a cost of service agreement. And so that as we add capital there that gets covered in our rates where the Haynesville is not, it's not that setup.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
I'll be quick. I know there has been a bunch on both MVP and ACP. Hypothetically is ACP and let's say even if MVP didn't go through, meaning got stuck in the court system, bogged down for a lot longer or cost creep inflated to a point making it untenable. How do you think about the solutions that Williams could offer into Virginia North and maybe in the South Carolina? And the ability the timeline to realize some of those solutions?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Michael, obviously it's topic that's been getting a lot of discussion. We have a lot to offer, in terms of distributing the product with gas to market whether it's healthy, what would be the ACP, Eastern system or moving supplies to them. We have -- we do have a tremendous amount to offer with our existing lighter weight. MDP is more just kind of a downstream issue so to speak, because obviously they're getting across the trial with those supplies. And so that's really struggled there. But, I would say, we have a lot more to offer ACP in terms of meeting their market distribution goals. And as the MDP, they need, they're going to need some market distribution as they do get across the trial and we're well-positioned to help them out with that. So that's how I describe that. Obviously in this environment I think it's important for all of the industry participant to try to utilize as much as existing facilities as possible, keep the cost down and that's what we're very focused on in both those cases.
Michael Lapides:
But if ACP for some reason or another didn't get completed, how much new infrastructure, or new steel in the ground, how much significant new pipe would you have to build especially to get it? To get the gas into North Carolina? I'm just trying to think about the infrastructure requirements and the timeline to deliver them.
Alan Armstrong:
I would say we have a lot of -- lots of [indiscernible] already into some of those markets, but it is significant in terms of the investment, it's not, it's obviously quite a bit lower cost by using the existing facilities. But it would be pretty significant investment required and it's very dependent on where the supply comes from. So a lot of variables here depending on where the supply comes from. But if you just showed up with the supplies along that 155 to 194 corridor, we have a lot of ability to help distribute that gas into the market.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Justin Jenkins of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Justin Jenkins:
Great. Thanks. Just one follow up for me. Just if you take the 1Q run rate per CapEx for a bit below the full year guide, so is it more balanced throughout the rest of the year here? Or is it back end driven? Maybe just to hop on the cadence of the CapEx if you could?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. This is Michael. Say in Q1 you can't say $10 million is the run rate because our construction projects really ramp-up in the second and third quarter of the year, that our growth projects that we're working on. So we're still within the ballpark of our guidance suggestion that we put out there, with the information that came out this week, and it will ramp-up as the summer construction season heats up.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Chris Sighinolfi of Jefferies. Please go ahead sir.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Hi everyone. Thanks for the call this morning. Alan you guys have been very active since analyst day a year ago with asset sales, JV rationalizations and clearly a focus on deleverging. I guess, I have two questions stemming from all of that. The first is to follow up on Shneur's earlier question about your longer-term 5% to 7% annual EBITDA growth guidance. Just curious how to interpret your longer-term place in for periods beyond 2019, just wondering maybe how you or John will think about the outlook versus the forecast contained in the WTZ S-4 last summer?
Alan Armstrong:
Well the WTZ S-4 for last summer, I wouldn't pay much attention to the financial information. We had to do a fair amount of talking through that, that wasn't obviously meant for marketing purposes. So as we look at our forecast today, again back to our earlier point, as we look at our forecast today, over the next two to three years and we look at a capital spend of around $2.5 billion on expansion capital. Again we continue to see our deleveraging and at the same time we see this level of EBITDA growth of 5% to 7% range. So I really wouldn't put too much put much weight on the WTZ document.
John Chandler:
Yes, I would just say Chris on that, we are focused on delivering on both of those ends both on the 5% to 7% growth, as well as deleveraging. And we're constantly balancing that, and obviously being able to sell assets that -- well at high multiples is pretty attractive way to get there. But we also are very focused on making sure we have plenty of reinvestment opportunity to drive that growth of 5% to 7% growth. And so far I would say, we're very comfortable about our ability to continue to face that capital. Project just continue to develop that, moving on pretty nicely. And within this period I would tell you that the one sizable project that's developed is Regional Energy Access project that's come along very nicely and with a lot of strong support all of a sudden. So I think we're really doing pretty good about the opportunity -- the high return investment opportunity continue to come. And as we get into the 2022 timeframe the deepwater -- this isn't speculative on our part, the deepwater cash flows there are going to be pretty big, because the FIDs for those projects are moving ahead and a lot of that business will be coming through this. And so lot of that's part of the [Indiscernible] exactly the size of that and exactly how much those projects are out there and are coming on our way. So we've doing very good about the ability to see that kind of growth rate and continue deleveraging, but we are managing both of those as we think about the transaction. I mean obviously we continue to take -- even though we saw in somewhat maybe a long-term view of growth in the Northeast volumes from 15% CAGR to 10% to 15%. Again we still see robust EBITDA growth coming out of the Northeast. We've got a number of projects, if you look in our slide deck in our index, number of Transco projects coming on into this year and next year that will be adding the EBITDA. And of course those are the same as DJ Basin assets that we have had acquired last -- late last year, there is a significant ramp up in growth coming from that as well.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay, and one clarification on that John, just my own purposes, it's very clear that you omitted any Transco rate case related impact on the formal 2019 guidance. But as we think about 5% to 7% over the next couple of years is it safe to assume that if you get a positive outcome there in that period of time, that's additive to that range or maybe puts you higher up in the range?
John Chandler:
It would put us higher up in the range.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay. And then I guess that's very helpful. And my second question very much appreciate the reading or the presentation materials and something that we always acknowledged but illustrates clearly, I think it's Slide 13 it's just the significant non-cash items that 2% of drag to EPS. And I guess I'm just curious, are there additional transactions or impairments for restructuring, that you could do maybe trim some of those items for the benefit of EPS? Just we got a lot more questions from investors about the EPS, I'm assuming, you do to, and I'm just wondering what more could be done on that front? Thanks.
John Chandler:
That's a weird commentary for a CFO to look for impairments, but it is something obviously that to the extent we could have that, it would benefit our depreciation -- by lowering our depreciation which is way out of line with our maintenance capital. There is really not a lot we can do on that front, absent to the extent we partner on assets that we consolidate today. That and to the extent we move the assets from a consolidation to a non-consolidation type approach to maybe partnering through JVs. That potentially could allow us to revalue assets and impair, and bring that depreciation level down. Anything short of that though, any of the test or impairment is based on gross cash flows, and well a lot of these assets got marked up to really high-value, back in the Access, Midstream merger, which was not a cash deal which is stock-for-stock trade but it forced us to revalue a lot of the Access assets at a very high valuation level. While those are at a high level, the gross cash flow still exceeds those book value. So anything short of actually some system kind of partnership for JV that would force some level of deconsolidation, that's the only thing that allows really to help bring that depreciation down.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate it. I know, it's a line of questions for you. The focus seems to fully changed. And it seems like that the reason [indiscernible] in Northeast maybe our structure [indiscernible] as well. So, just, that was where I was --. Appreciate it.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Craig Shere:
Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. I did have a quick one. Alan you commented on the weak wet gas, in Marcellus and Utica in terms of recent trends, and NGL pricing looks like Blue Racer had a pretty tough quarter. How do you see all those impacting the pace at which your new West Virginia panhandle processing might fell off over the next couple of years?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think Craig, the investment we have there feel pretty good about that filling up. And it is as I mentioned earlier we got a lot of pads being turned online, and so really starting to see that come off. It doesn't -- it didn't a lot, big as those patents are, to make progress on that front. And we had some contracts coming our way that are shifting volumes our way. So feel pretty good about the TXP-2, the existing base capacity plus TXP-2 and we were able as a result of this synergy and knowing we have excess processing capacity, the UEO, that takes -- puts us in a position to not have to prebuild any capacity out in front and don't grow any further. So this energy or the -- as I mentioned earlier one of the nice things about that synergy is that, it prevents us from having to put capital in place to build out in front of those increasing volumes, because we do have alternatives that where we can ship those volumes to, but preserve the cash flows from it. And so I would just say, that gives us a lot more breathing room and allows for better capital efficiency as it relates to the OVM processing capacity. And so we intend to take full advantage of that.
Craig Shere:
Sounds good. So your TXP-2 is basically contracted up -- that slowdown is not really going to impacted but your derisk, the fact that you don't need new capital because you have the ability to work between basins?
Alan Armstrong:
Right. Correct.
Operator:
We will now take our next question from Tim Schneider of Citi. Please go ahead.
Tim Schneider:
Some -- just real quick. From my seat, I would say the biggest debate points among investors is capital allocation for companies in the midstream space. So I'm just kind of wondering how you guys look at the strategically, when you get together kind of bouncing growth, delevering and returning cash to shareholders over the longer-term and I think you said kind of the -- to leverage target, but what you think the right leverage is for a company with the asset mix of Williams? is that something that should go below 4x, are you happy kind of being in the low 4s, just interested in your thoughts here.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say our asset mix, just we don't have a lot of -- very little business that's marketing based, is not basis differential based, it's not the term optimization that gets you to often around the assets, which is trading around the assets. We don't have that kind of variability per cash flow. And I bet you can see that with the remarkable predictability to our cash flow streams, that continues to flow. So no, I don't think they ought to get -- mark all the same, but I would say that the rating agencies have told us that, on their basis, it's a 4.5x kind of number to be BBB flat, and we want to be there be confidently there, at BBB flat level. And so that for 4.2x mark on kind of a steady run-rate basis is what we are seeking that because that happens to be coincidental with that BBB flat side from the rating agencies.
Tim Schneider:
I mean, I guess if you guys are getting feedback from the investment community, do you really want to see something more of 4x, is that something that you would aim for in that case? Or do you think, well let's just kind of go with what the rating agencies are saying?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say from my own personal perspective on that. I think they're tend to be fads that move through the investment community. And I think from our vantage point keeping our debt costs down and capacity to flex when we need to, is what we're targeting from the business trajectory. And I think we think that's really the smart place for us. And I think the market has to figure out, and it should figure out, who has volatility in their cash flows and who doesn't, and that ought to be driving the number, that each company should aspire to not just because somebody magically came up with a 4x number.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Alan Armstrong for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, great, thanks everybody. Great questions as always and we appreciate the opportunity to visit with you on this. Really excited about the continued very predictable way our business is running, and the way our teams are executing on projects. So look forward to speaking with you in the future and at the next quarterly call. Thanks.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations, and please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thanks, Amy. Good morning, and thank you for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development, Chad Zamarin is with us as well. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you, John. I'm going to start a little bit with the macro conditions that continue to support our strategy so well. So if you think about our continued focus on natural gas demand and how that's driving our strategy and you look at actually what's occurring, we really saw it start to accelerate in '18 as we saw an 11% increase in overall natural gas demand. And as I'll remind you, that's on top of a big demand that we had in '17 as well and we also have another expected 5% increase by most of the forecasters now for North America, so demand growth on top of demand growth on top of demand growth. But if I put that in perspective for you, it really is starting to -- what is happened is -- what we expected to happen, which is not just the U.S. but all of the world is really starting to try to take advantage of the U.S.'s ability to get gas out of the ground at such a low cost. So just to think about that 11% increase that we had this year, I think it's helpful to put that in perspective and something we can all relate to and that is that 11% increase was greater than all of the dry gas production from the Permian in 2018. So just here in one year, we've had an increase that's greater than all of the dry gas production coming out of the Permian today. So the demand growth is very important to our strategy and we continue to see that be very supportive. So with this backdrop, I'm happy to report that our portfolio of indispensable natural gas infrastructure performed even better than expected this past year as we once again came in at the top of our guidance ranges for key financial metrics. In fact, we achieved an all-time record for adjusted EBITDA in 2018 even in the face of asset sales totaling more than $4.6 billion over the past 2.5 years. And these transactions continue to reduce our commodity exposure and continue to improve our leverage metric for WMB. And all the while, we funded growth over the past two years without the need for equity issuance. So as you may recall, we started 2018 setting delivery records on Transco, which we've now, in 2019, equipped once again during the record cold snap that impacted our markets last week. And in 2018, Northwest Pipeline also hit an all-time record for annual throughput, eclipsing the prior record by 5%. So we are seeing the impact of all this increased demand showing up on our pipelines, obviously. We had a timely and crisp execution on the critically important WPZ rollup transaction, reestablishing Williams as a simplified C-Corp with investment-grade credit. We continue to make great progress overcoming a highly challenging regulatory and permitting environment, placing critical new Transco projects and service like Garden State, Atlantic Sunrise, and just recently, the Gulf Connector. And we continue to make progress advancing the expensive next generation of Transco fully contracted projects like Southeastern Trail, Rivervale South to market, Leidy South, Northeast Supply Enhancement, Gateway and several other Transco projects that we've not gone public with yet. Late in the year, we saw the beginnings of the accelerated Northeast G&P growth. We expect to continue for many years to come as the takeaway cloud finally has begun to lift from this basin. We expanded our ESG disclosures on our website, kicked off the project to further expand our ESG disclosures in '19 and further strengthen our exceptional Board of Directors with two new appointments. We continue to exercise capital discipline, passing up many opportunities but executing on others like our entry into the DJ Basin, which was funded through our exit from our legacy Four Corners position. And we are now set for continued value-creating portfolio optimization here as we begin 2019. And once again, despite increasing commodity price volatility in the liquids markets, our low-cost natural gas business strategy has us positioned well for further predictable growth here in 2019. And importantly, today, we are reaffirming the 2019 guidance that we provided in May of last year. So with that quick look back at a very busy 2018, let's move to Slide 2 and take a closer look at our financial performance versus 2018 -- for '18 versus our guidance. Here on Slide 2, you can see that we've shown how we finished the year relative to our 2018 guidance ranges. Although our GAAP net income was affected by a large impairment on our Barnett gathering system, you can see that adjusted net income exceeded the midpoint of guidance and our adjusted EPS, which was at the high end of guidance, showed strong growth in 2018 of 25% over the 2017 EPS. Despite selling $1.3 billion in assets that was not accommodated for in our plan back when we made that guidance, our adjusted EBITDA DCF and dividend coverage ratio all reflected strong performance at the high end of our guidance range. You can see that our growth CapEx spending came in about $300 million under guidance and that was primarily driven by shifts of capital out of '18 and now into '19. So when we get to our '19 guidance, you'll see an uptick, which was just the timing of that $300 million moving from '18 to '19. And finally, with respect to leverage, you can see a nice outperformance with year-end leverage at 4.8. So once again, as was the case in '17, our financial performance was quite good as compared to our guidance. It was another year where we delivered on expectations, including steady, predictable and growing cash flows while improving the balance sheet. On the next couple of slides, we'll quickly break down the major drivers of our financial performance for the fourth quarter and the full year, so let's move on to Slide 3. First, looking at the fourth quarter GAAP numbers on the upper portion of the slide, we see that the year-over-year comparisons were affected by some large accounting entries, which have been adjusted out of our non-GAAP. Specifically, in 2017, we had some large positive accounting entries related to tax reform. And this year, we have a large revaluation on our Barnett gathering system, somewhat offset by gains on asset sales. Looking at adjusted EBITDA in the lower portion of the slide, we see that the nearly $1.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA was up a little more than 3% versus 2017, but up 9% if you normalize for revenue recognition changes and the sale of our Four Corners system. Looking at the bridge then, once adjusted for the revenue recognition changes and the loss of Four Corners, which are shown in gray, you can see that our adjusted EBITDA increased almost $100 million, where strong increases in our Northeast and Atlantic-Gulf segments were somewhat offset by a lower quarter in the West. So it's really great to see the Northeast and Atlantic-Gulf adjusted EBITDA numbers growing by 28% and 22%, respectively. Atlantic Sunrise was the big driver, of course, for Atlantic-Gulf, and the Northeast saw about a 13% increase in volumes, led by increases in Northeast Pennsylvania area, but also we saw good growth in Southwestern Marcellus and the Utica area as well. So as we look at the results for the West, you have to be mindful of the pretty dramatic effect that the sale of Four Corners had on our reported gathering volumes. So specifically, if you look at our analyst package, you'll see that the West gathering volumes are down about 22% sequentially from 3Q and that our full year 2018 volumes are down about 4% from '17. However, if you exclude the Four Corners volumes, then we are flat year-to-year and down only 3% versus the third quarter of '18. And of course, that was impacted, we did have some freeze offs in Wyoming here in the fourth quarter of '18. Additionally, another big driver for the West in the fourth quarter of '18 related to about $25 million unfavorable swing in the EBITDA of our NGL marketing business, which was driven by the drop in the value of the inventory that we hold for [indiscernible] primarily out West. The value of this near comp and inventory changes every quarter as we mark this product to market prices from one quarter to another. So now let's turn to the full year 2018 results and go to Slide 4. Starting with our GAAP results in the upper portion of the slide, we see that the large accounting entries we discussed in the prior slide are also driving the year-over-year comparisons. So again, tax reform entries, gains on sales of assets and impairment entries make it a little tough to see the performance of the ongoing business. So let's look at the adjusted numbers where these items have been excluded. First off, I just highlight again that the 25% growth in adjusted EPS, which grew to $0.79 from $0.63 in the prior year. Looking at the bridge on adjusted EBITDA, you see in gray the effects of lost EBITDA from the Geismar assets we sold in '17, the changes in revenue recognition accounting rules and the loss of EBITDA from the Four Corners assets we sold in 2018. So once again, adjusted for revenue recognition changes and the lost EBITDA from sold assets, you can see that our adjusted EBITDA increased a little more than $300 million, driven by strong increases in our Northeast and Atlantic Gulf segments. Growing volumes in the Northeast Pennsylvania and Southwest Marcellus and the Utica areas all drove the higher Northeast segment results. The Atlantic-Gulf segment growth was again driven by Atlantic Sunrise, but a number of other projects that came on for a partial year in '17 also drove higher results in '18. So now let's move on to Slide 5 and quickly recap some of the more significant and recent business developments. This slide showcases our recent accomplishments, demonstrating strong project execution, continued permitting successes, operational excellence and strategic transactions at the corporate level. Our teams have done an outstanding job of bringing key expansion projects in the service, like Transco's Atlantic Sunrise and Gulf Connector projects. One other project that I'll highlight on the list is our Norphlet project in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. It's great to see some major new deepwater volumes coming midyear as our Norphlet project serving Shell’s Appomattox builds in the Eastern Gulf gets up and running. With the completion of these three projects, the majority of our project execution risk that is behind our growth drivers for '19 has been squared away. So on the permitting front, we have also seen great progress despite the difficult environment. Northeast Supply Enhancement received its FERC FEIS. This was a critical permitting step for a project that will support the conversion of heating oil to clean burning natural gas for New York City and Long Island areas. Transco's Gateway expansion was another project that hit a key milestone, receiving FERC approval to expand existing pipeline to help New York and New Jersey meet growing natural gas demand needs in time for the 2021 winter. And most recently, our Southeastern Trail project cleared the environmental assessment hurdle at FERC. This is another example of Transco's tremendous advantage of having existing right of ways in all of the right places. Operationally, our Northeast GMP segment increased gathering volumes by 13% from fourth quarter of '17 to fourth quarter of '18. And this was driven primarily by several gathering expansions of our Susquehanna system as well as incremental takeaway capacity for Northeast Pennsylvania. We will continue to see volume growth on our Northeast systems into 2019 and beyond. Our Transco expansion -- Transco delivered a record amount of natural gas, setting its peak day mark of 15.68 million dekatherms on January 21 of this year. Transco also set a new 3-day mark from January 30 to February 1. The recent frigid conditions across the country are an important reminder of the vital role transmission pipelines play in delivering natural gas to keep millions of Americans safe and secure. And I want to take a moment to recognize the great employees that are there working behind the scenes to make that happen. It's not a simple task and it takes a lot of dedication, and we certainly have that from our employees here at Williams. And speaking of records, our Northwest Pipeline also hit an all-time annual record delivery of 820 trillion BTUs versus the previous annual record of 781 trillion BTUs. So a tremendous job our Northwest team as well as they overcome some major supply outages in Canada from third-party pipelines coming in and we're able to manage around that and keep the heat on for our residents in the Northwest area as well. Looking down the list, you'll see our Bluestem project, which we announced yesterday afternoon. Let's move to Slide 6 to take a closer look at the newly announced project Bluestem. We've got some good detail on this slide about this exciting new project, which will provide all new connectivity between vast Western NGL supplies and premium Gulf Coast markets. This strategic partnership provides great opportunity to really strengthen and expand our NGL transportation and fractionation business. We are pleased to partner with Targa on this NGL infrastructure solution that creates an integrated solution and a platform for growth for both parties. Expanding on NGL pipeline business to interconnect with Targa's strategically positioned Grand Prix pipeline will provide Williams and our customers with access to Mont Belvieu, while opening up additional markets for Conway, attracting new volumes to both our Overland Pass Pipeline system and the Conway fractionation and storage assets and will provide Williams with 80,000 to 120,000 barrels a day of firm access to Mont Belvieu. Additionally, this delivers a long-term infrastructure solution for NGLs from our Opal, Echo Springs, Willow Creek and our new Rocky Mountain Midstream systems in the DJ Basin, while also creating a platform for growth, offering us the opportunity to gain incremental downstream revenues as we expand our GMP business. We're targeting an in-service date of the first quarter of 2021 for this project. Additionally, I would point out that in connection with this project, Williams will also have an option to purchase initially a 20% equity interest in one of Targa's recently announced new fractionation train 7 or 8 in Mont Belvieu. Our goal is to be well aligned with Targa in maximizing the value of our collected assets in Conway and Mont Belvieu and the piping in between and to offer attractive service offerings to our processing customers in the West. We expect our investment in these NGL logistics projects to be $350 million to $400 million, with most of that spending will -- that will occur in 2020. And now let's move on to the next slide to review our 2019 financial guidance. As we previously discussed, we are reaffirming our 2019 financial guidance with the exception of growth capital expenditures. Of course, much has changed since we originally issued 2019 guidance last May. Specifically, we sold our large scale Four Corners system and entered into the DJ Basin where the system there that we now operate was still in the early stages of its continuing expansion and development. And we and our producing customers, of course, saw a 28% decrease in crude and NGL prices from August until year-end. Really, the key point here is that the stability and predictability of our natural gas infrastructure-focused strategy has allowed our 2019 guidance to hold in there very well even as we continue to optimize portfolio and have seen lower pricing environment for our producing customers. As a result, our 2019 guidance for financial performance remains unchanged and much of the project execution risk for 2019 is already put crisply behind us. ASR, Gulf Connector and our Norphlet facilities, as I mentioned earlier, all now completed. So as I previously mentioned, we are revising growth capital expenditure guidance from $2.6 billion to a range of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, and that's really just the timing shift of some of the amounts we didn't spend in '18 that got shifted into '19. The last thing I will say about 2019 is that we remain very focused on improving our credit metrics. To that end, we will continue to exercise capital discipline and to pursue portfolio optimization transactions much like you saw in '18. And of course, our strong cash flows and continued string of asset sales has allowed us to fund the equity side of our growth capital needs. So with that update, let's move on to the last slide, Slide 8, and wrap up, and then we'll take your questions. On this last slide, we again just laid out a few of the highlights from 2018, which was a very important year for Williams. It was a year where we beat guidance, returned to a simplified C-Corp investment-grade infrastructure company, completed the largest project ever on Transco, progressed on deleveraging the company and made continued progress in optimizing our portfolio. Also in this last slide, we've summarized some of the things on our mind here for 2019. We look forward to another year of strong natural gas demand growth. We also look forward to showing our business can deliver cash flow stability and predictability during times when the crude markets are volatile and saggy. We continue to be pleased with the opportunities we are closing on in the DJ Basin, thanks to the great work of our Rocky Mountain Midstream team that has done a great job of establishing themselves in the areas well with our customers up there. As an example, we just executed a new gas gathering and processing agreement for an additional 5,200 acre dedication that is fully permitted in the DJ. To support this development, we'll be expanding our gathering and collection services in the basin as we expect to open up additional near- and long-term opportunities for our midstream services in the DJ. And we will have two new processing trains starting up this year as well, one of which is entering the commissioning stage and the other at [indiscernible] where construction activity is progressing according to plan. We look forward to another year of advancing the important Transco projects that you are aware of and to introducing you to new opportunities for the nation's largest and fastest-growing natural gas pipeline, and we look forward to another year of strong Northeast GMP volume growth. And last but not least, we will continue to delever. We will do this through solid execution of our business plan, which allows us to reinvest excess cash flows into new growth opportunities, but we will also continue to vigorously pursue portfolio optimization activities in support of this effort to delever. And finally, I also want to let you know that we've taken a look at the timing of our annual Analyst Day, and we'll be making a shift from the May time frame to something later in the year. This major -- the major driver of this move is to really make sure that our Analyst Day follows up our annual forward board session, which is in August. So we think that's a nice move to governance and simplifying our internal process to be able to roll right from our annual board strategy session into guidance. So with that, let's go ahead and turn it over for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we'll take our first question from Shneur Gershuni of UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Just wanted to start off on the new project that you announced last night. On a go-forward basis, do you expect to aggregate more barrels? And could you see a need for a greater than 20% stake in a frac? And also with -- any sense on what the stack rate would be to get the Y-Grade all the way to Mont Belvieu?
Alan Armstrong:
I would say, first of all, on the volume growth, yes, we did build in the flexibility in our relationship with Targa to be able to expand our volumes as we need to, both on transport capacity as well as on the investment in the fractionator. So -- and I would say that we definitely are seeing a lot of opportunity to continue to pick up new barrels out of both the DJ and the Rockies. And so we're pretty excited about that. And obviously, we like the fact that Conway becomes an important center now as we open that up to new markets, so we're pretty excited about that alternative. And then on the -- I would just say on the rate, we're not going to disclose that. But I would say it's very competitive and we're very excited about it, about the way that rate is structured. And again, I think Targa saw this as a long-term strategic relationship with us, and likewise. And so we see this as a great opportunity to maximize the combination of our assets at Conway and Bellevue.
Shneur Gershuni:
That makes sense. And given your new partnership with Targa, do you see an opportunity to expand the relationship with respect to gas takeaway out of the Permian, given that both companies have been exploring different gas takeaway solution?
Chad Zamarin:
Yes, this is Chad Zamarin. I would just say that we continue to -- I think if you look at our recent announcement with the Brazos Midstream system in the Permian, we continue to focus on the Permian. And I would just say, we're going to continue to be disciplined and there have been two projects that have been announced coming out of the Permian to move gas to the Gulf Coast, but we continue to look at options. The Brazos system provides us much like the move that we made into the DJ and the ability to move downstream from that position. The Brazos system provides us with an opportunity to continue to develop projects that we moved to the Gulf Coast. And I would say that we are likely, if we do move forward with the project of that sort, to partner with others in order to make it a most efficient project. So we continue to work in that manner.
Shneur Gershuni:
Great. And one final question. When I think about your CapEx guidance for 2019, I know it technically goes up from the prior guidance. But when I think about it on an apples-to-apples basis, you have some rollover from 2018 into 2019. And you've just announced new project, so it would kind of seem like, on an apples-to-apples basis, your CapEx is actually declining versus prior expectations. Can you give us a little bit of color around that? Is it cost related? Is it due to some of the asset sales? Just trying to understand these subtle changes.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say, first of all, most importantly, the Bluestem -- most of that capital for Bluestem will be spent in 2020. So that's primarily why you're not seeing less driver in that. So it's not -- frankly, it's not all that complicated because it really is just quite a bit of pushing. There's a lot of -- in a budget of that size, obviously, there's a lot of things moving around from time to time. But they tend to find themselves towards the mean, and that's precisely the way this came out this year as well.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We will take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho:
Just wanted to make sure I understand this agreement with Targa. Are the economics here really going to be driven by the volume growth out of the Rocky Mountain Midstream JV? And also, any color around when you expect to achieve that EBITDA multiple of 6x and what sort of volume we should assume is underpinning those economics?
Micheal Dunn:
It's Micheal. Just -- to start on the first part of that, we see a lot of growth not only from the Rocky Mountain Midstream, but we've got barrels on our Rockies plants that are already out there that will be moving on the Bluestem pipeline eventually. As you know, we've got the partnership on the OPPL system. And we'll continue to move with Rockies barrels down the OPPL system to Conway and then further south on Bluestem. And with our 2021 in-service date on Bluestem coinciding with Targa’s build to the north with us, we would expect a lot of those barrels to move south and ultimately, get to a 6x multiple on that. And really, a lot of that is driven by timing of the barrels coming out of Rocky Mountain Midstream frankly, but we do see some pretty significant growth in the Rocky Mountain Midstream assets, especially with the agreement that we just executed, and so we would anticipate approaching that 6x multiple pretty quickly.
Christine Cho:
And just to clarify, the volumes coming out of like your existing plants, are those priced off -- those are priced off Conway, right? And so to the extent that you can bring them down to Bellevue, that's going to be margin that you keep for yourself. Is that how I should think about it?
Alan Armstrong:
There's a variety -- for our own equity barrels today, we have the option of either Conway or Bellevue at a differential in price. So today, we do have that option for those barrels up to an amount that we can move under the existing exchange agreement. So I would just say that we do have Bellevue access for those barrels today to the degree it's available. But for the Rocky Mountain Midstream barrels, that's a different story in terms of being able to include those because we're limited on capacity on Overland Pass right now. So as Overland Pass opens up, that allows us to make a very nice margin by making these investments on the downstream.
Christine Cho:
Got it. Okay. And then just switching over to the Northeast, the gathering volumes have been great, but the processing volumes have been flattish for the last year. What do you think we need to see to have these volumes increase?
Micheal Dunn:
Well, Christine, I would say we do expect those volumes to increase. We have line of sight to what the producers are doing. There's a lot of drilling activity behind our processing plants that will be coming online this year. It's a little bit delayed for more than where you had thought it would have been last year. That's really coinciding very nicely with the completion of growth TXP-2. And so we have very good confidence that our current capacity will be filled probably in the second quarter, and that's about the time that TXP-2 and Oak Grove comes online. So we anticipate certainly [filling] [ph] TXP-1 this year and TXP-2 will start processing gas shortly after that.
Alan Armstrong:
Christine, I would just add to that question, and it's a good observation on your part. I would just add, we've got several significant upstream projects, like [Checkmark] [ph] pipeline and some other projects that are -- that we have to get completed before we can bring those new processing of those volumes in for processing. So there's quite a bit of infrastructure having to happen upstream to be able to get some of the new drilled volumes from Southwestern and other customers into the front of Oak Grove and we're nearing completion on a lot of that work.
Micheal Dunn:
And Christine, I probably should add to that, we have been in volume commitments whenever we agree to go deploy capital there at those processing facilities. We have MBC to back that up. And so that's why it gives us a lot of confidence that those volumes are going to show.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Maybe just kind of speaking up on that last point there. There's been kind of concern with regards to producer activity in the Northeast and some producers kind of taking in that growth rate, focusing more on free cash flow. I was wondering if you guys could address how you see that impacting your footprint because it seems like some of the guys behind your systems might be taking a bit of a different task than others there. If you can extend on that, what gives you guys the confidence in the Northeast growth as you expected?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure. I'll just take that at a high level and then and Micheal can fill in with some details if required. First of all, I think not all producers out there are created equal, and certainly not all acreage is created equal. And so for instance, if you look at Cabot, which is one of the primary drivers of our growth, they continue to show a very strong growth profile because they've got markets established upwards towards 4 Bcf a day of markets that they've established. And so they've done a great job of getting the markets out in front of them, and we're working furiously to keep our gathering system expanded to keep up with them. So that's very obvious to us where that growth is coming from in that area. As well as Bradford County area continues to grow very rapidly for us as well. And so as Micheal pointed out earlier, we have a lot of transparency into that growth in that area. And then as you move into the South, I would just say that while there has been some folks pulling back a little bit on volume growth, as Micheal mentioned, those MBCs that people have made to us, they're going to work hard obviously to build those up. They are being very successful with the production behind there. And I would just tell you the 15% CAGR that we put out there earlier, we had quite a bit of room, if you will, between what producers were forecasting at that point versus that 15%. And so we're still very -- feel very confident in that 15% CAGR that we put out earlier based on the detailed work that we do with producers. I would say, as I've mentioned earlier, probably the one more positive things about that growth that's occurred is the Encino acquisition from Chesapeake on that Utica acreage, which was a very large piece of volume and acreage behind us that was declining previously. And now with their activities, we're actually starting to see that growth. So that's a really big positive for us in terms of offsetting some of the declines that exist there, yes.
Jeremy Tonet:
That's very helpful. Just wanted to turn to Atlantic-Gulf here real quick. And you had quite a nice quarter there. I was wondering this kind of -- something that's a run rate level for you guys? Or is there still more kind of Sunrise is not fully baked in for the quarter and you're continuing to see growth there? How should we think about that segment?
Micheal Dunn:
This is Micheal again. I would say the majority of the quarter, we saw the Atlantic Sunrise revenues in there came online October 6 is when we started charging full rate for Atlantic Sunrise. But recall, earlier in 2018, we were also charging for some interim capacity that we were able to achieve there. We were able to bring the full volume on October 6. So basically, you would see the fourth quarter having the majority of the revenue in there for Atlantic Sunrise. And if you recall, it's a revenue payment -- sorry, a capacity payment. On a revenue throughput, although very strong throughout the fourth quarter, doesn't drive a lot of the revenue differences there because of the capacity reservation charges that Transco enjoys.
Operator:
And from RBC Capital Markets, we'll hear from TJ Schultz.
Torrey Schultz:
Just one thing on the last point on the Chesapeake, Utica acreage now with Encino. Can you find any better rated change you're expecting from an asset those in decline. Now it sounds like more activity. Just any notable color from early days of Encino in place.
Alan Armstrong:
Well, they're still on their process deciding how aggressively they want to go after it, but I think it's a -- the big shift, of course, is a -- the available capital that Encino has through the Canadian pension fund. And so they are anxious to put that capital to work and driving returns on that. So it takes a while to get ramp back up from the declines that had been occurring in the area, but we're working with them to make sure that we keep the infrastructure out in front of them right now. So I think it's a question of how many rigs that they're going to run in the area right now. I think they're planning -- they've got two and planning on maybe going to three at this point. And so that will -- that's what will drive that. And of course, they're very efficient. They've got a lot of team that was already existing there, very efficient operators. And with three rigs, they'll be growing pretty rapidly in that area.
Torrey Schultz:
Okay. Great. Just one more, on Gulf East, if you could just clarify a little on Appomattox. It sounds like coming on a little sooner than expected. If you can just remind me the status of the Northwest Pipeline auction to you. And just, in general, what you're expecting from the ramp in that area this year?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure. TJ, yes, we have completed all of our work and the pipeline auction and it gets triggered just ahead of production coming online. So we're in those discussions and that's all pretty -- I would say that's very clean and very baked, and there's not a whole lot to happen there other than us making decision to exercise that. So really, it's just a matter of Shell doing their work on Appomattox and being ready to flow. And so that's what will drive the timing on that is their work on the Appomattox platform and getting that ready to flow. And they've done a great job, really great execution on Shell team on being so far ahead of schedule as what they had planned originally. And our team did a nice job as well having our side of the infrastructure done. So we're excited about it, a lot of volumes just from the fuels proper, but a lot of new work going on by both Shell and other producers in the area and acreage around that, that would be nice [indiscernible] to the Northwest to our infrastructure out there. So I think that's going to wind up being even bigger than we had originally planned in terms of the number of fields and new development that's going on out there. Both -- again, both by Shell and Chevron's activity in the area as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from Dennis Coleman with Bank of America.
Dennis Coleman:
If I can just go back to the Bluestem project to start. I wonder if you might talk a little bit, how did you first scope the project in terms of deciding where the connect would come and who would build the what with Targa?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, we did say that Targa had -- and this is why it turned out to be such an attractive project for both parties, was because they were building up to that Kingfisher area anyway to capture other volumes in the Midcontinent area there. So this was a low-cost expansion for them to be able to pick our volumes up as well for them. So the transaction and the rates that we enjoy, we're benefiting from that. And so it was just a matter of us placing the capital to build down from Conway down to where they were already going to be picking up other barrels in that area.
Dennis Coleman:
Okay. And so are there -- there's contracts on these systems already? Is that -- there's a contract structure in place, there's shippers, or is it Williams that's the shipper?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. On our system, it would be own -- of course, remember, you have Overland Pass that we own 50% with One Oak upstream of this. That comes into the Conway area and then we would own that system 100%. We would be the -- in terms of shipping on that, we would have an exchange agreement, purchase agreement with Targa for some of those barrels and we will have relationships with upstream producers. Plants that's in the Rocky Mountain area will have relationships where we will be buying their barrels at a fixed margin in that area. So we'll have a combination of both our own equity barrels, which are very substantial today as well as barrels that we've been continuing to pick up in the DJ Basin and some of the surrounding area there.
Dennis Coleman:
Okay, got it. And then just there's a word in the press release that I want to just try and understand. You said there's an initial 20% option on one the fracs. I guess, that implies that there will be additional options or potentially, is that -- am I hearing that right?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Great question. As I mentioned earlier, we structured the transaction so that we can expand both our equity investment and the frac, but that would come with additional volume commitment on our part as well, and so that's kind of how it's structured, so -- but we built in flexibility, knowing how robust we're kind of forecasting the growth in the Rocky Mountain midstream area to be, we want to be prepared to be able to handle those incremental barrels. And so while today, we don't want to make that kind of commitment without seeing the barrels actually show up, we did want to make sure that we had the capacity to allow for that growth coming from that area.
Dennis Coleman:
Okay, great. And then I guess, maybe just one on the leverage. It seems that, that further reduction is primarily a function of asset sales. So I wonder if you might talk about what kind of -- any assets that you're particularly looking at. Is there a program going on now or is that going to be more opportunistic?
Alan Armstrong:
No, I would say we're constantly looking at optimizing our portfolio and. Where we are working really hard, I can tell you the entire team, with the board's support, is working hard to reduce our leverage. And so we continue to work various transactions and asset sales that would help complement that. So to answer your question, we are actively pursuing those type of transactions.
John Chandler:
But I would -- this is John Chandler. I do want to say, even without that, though, again, remember, we're generating around $1.2 billion of excess cash even with attractive dividend growth, and we can use that cash even on new investment dollars. So we actually are deleveraging even with investments in new projects because we're funding so much of it with cash. So again, after sales will enhance and speed up the deleveraging, but we're deleveraging even without asset sales.
Operator:
Next we'll hear from Mike Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Two questions unrelated to each other. One, is there an update on the siting and permitting process for the Northeast Supply Enhancement that you can provide? Just in general, it seems like federal processes are kind of running as expected but just curious given a lot of the challenges others and you all have paid in terms of building pipelines into New York and dealing with kind of state level intervenors or stakeholders.
Micheal Dunn:
Michael, this Micheal. I will give you an update on that. This is a great project for us to be able to facilitate the reduction of emissions in New York City as well as improve the cost profile of people's energy use there. We just recently received our final environmental impact statement from the FERC and we would expect within 90 days, further regulations and their practice to provide a FERC certificate, assuming the FERC commissioners approve that within 90 days. So you would expect to see that hopefully within the 90 days and then we're in the process on the state side of getting the 401 certifications from New Jersey and New York. Both of those state agencies had scheduled public hearings for the 401 certifications with just recently, the state of New York giving the notice of complete application on our 401 certification. And so we'll go through those processes with the state of New York as well. And once those 401 certificates are issued by each one of the states, then that allows the core of engineers to issue let's call the 404 permit, and FERC that into consideration in order to give us a notice to proceed with construction. So we've got all that to occur within the next several months.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Much appreciated. And also, totally different topic. Any update you can provide on the Transco rate case, just in terms of whether settlement talks are underway and whether there's a potential for settlement or whether you think goes the full litigated route?
Micheal Dunn:
I can give you an update on that as well. So we would expect to see the -- what's called the top sheets from FERC in mid-March, and that's really their staff's reaction to our filing. And they would provide the sideboards, if you will, so what we could then go to settlement negotiations with for staff and our customers on. And so the first or the start, I should say, the next settlement conference is scheduled for the end of March. And so at that point in time, we'll have a pretty good idea of how likely it is that a settlement can occur. And obviously, that's the path we would prefer to go down. I think that's the best for our customers and ourselves to be able to agree upon that and not litigate the case. And that's what the expectation is right now, for us to achieve an outcome in settlement that's satisfactory to both Williams and our customers.
Operator:
With Tuohy Brothers, we'll hear from Craig Shere.
Craig Shere:
A couple detail items and then a bigger picture question. Maybe my math is off but it looked like there was an unusually high tax rate reflected in adjusted income. If that's correct, what was driving that?
John Chandler:
It's really a couple of things. This is John Chandler. There's a couple of things that drive that. Number one, in the fourth quarter is when we usually do our tax provision re-estimation for the year, so I'd encourage you to look at the entire year at the tax rate instead of just the quarters since we do have some noise around that. I'd also say we had several obviously large unusual items in the fourth quarter, including the impairment and other things, that when we do estimations of taxes and the impact of taxes on those unusual items, we use a 25% rate, which is actually higher than our average blended rate for the quarter. So that results in some skewed tight calculations because we're using a different rate for our adjustment items, our normalization items. We use our standard annual rate of 25% than what it actually blended to. It's probably confusing but I'd just ask you to reach out to our IR team. I think they can walk you through that. But so it's really those two things, the significant usual items and the tax position adjustments that are done in the fourth quarter.
Craig Shere:
Looks like the EBITDA was in line but the adjusted EPS is a little off and that explains a lot. Alan, in your prepared remarks, you talked about several other Transco projects not going public with you yet. Can you give us a picture of the range of opportunities in terms of size? And maybe any updates on the Transco project one that was heavily foreshadowed on the 3Q call?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. First of all, on project 1, remember we had two there, we had project 2, which was Leidy South, which is moving ahead very nicely and fully contracted. Project 1, we continue to work with the counterparty, a primary counterparty on that. And I would just to continue to be very interested in the project and highly supportive of the project but have some of their own internal issues to get through to be able to transact with us. And -- but we remain very confident in the fundamentals on the drivers behind that project. I would also say though, we have several other new projects that are well on their way to development. A lot of strong interest that would continue to alleviate capacity constraint out of the Northeast PA area. And so we're pretty excited about that and that also helps expand in some of the markets that are continuing to need expansion. And despite what you might hear, those markets are growing pretty nicely in terms of their demand for natural gas there in Zone 6. And so we've got several projects that are pointing at that and again, the interest in those projects is very strong, I think.
Craig Shere:
So it sounds like there's incremental pipeline development that can further add to the Northeast GMP opportunities.
Alan Armstrong:
Absolutely, yes. And I'm not going to call it project 3 because we're growing weary of that. But it is a nice project flowing right behind the other two.
Craig Shere:
Okay. And here is a little bit of my bigger picture question. I understand the Barnett is not a 2019 headwind, but I want to get some sense of the longer-term gives and takes at GMP. If we look out to 2021, as you targeted a 15% CAGR on Northeast GMP volume growth off 2018, depending on assumed margin growth for them, is it reasonable to assume that Northeast GMP EBITDA can rise $600 million to $900 million plus off '18 levels? And then would Barnett maybe be a headwind of as much as $150 million?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. We're not going to provide guidance individually on Barnett. But I would say this, Craig, the lowering or the impairment we took on Barnett is -- I don't want to drag everybody through all the accounting details, but we were -- that asset was held according to the undiscounted cash flows on the assets when the -- and obviously, that was dependent on gas prices in the area, both -- by the way, that contract is set up as well as drilling expectations from Total, our primary customer in that area. When the Permian price for -- so every year, we test an asset like that for its cash flows, looking forward against the held value. And this year, when we had to take into account the very large basis differential in the Permian and how that would affect both the rate that we received as well as the actions of what we've estimated would be the actions of the producing customer, that brought us down below that estimate. And therefore, that triggered us to have to remarket the fair value. In other words, what we think we could sell the asset for in the market. And that was very different than the sum of the undiscounted cash flows, which -- what was related with Mark earlier. So it was a -- said another way, it was a relatively small movement in expected cash flows from the asset but it put us down below that fair value and that triggered a different way of value in the asset, and that's why we got such a large impairment. So you shouldn't read into that, that the business is collapsing there but it moved enough on the far out values, it moved enough that we had to reposition the way we value it. So nothing's really changed all that much there other than, again, the Permian gas supply hits -- if the Permian pipelines all got filled adequately and we see the Permian gas prices come back up, then that avenue would change for that area. But for the meantime, we have to take the facts as they are and look at the forward curve for the basis differential out there.
John Chandler:
And I'd just add to that. If you go to the third quarter of 2017, we impaired our Midcontinent asset that was the same scenario that was set up. There wasn't a material change in the actual EBITDA generation from any kind of assets, but the gross cash flow dropped in the -- to make us take it from historically high carrying value down to its fair value. So, same is happening with the Barnett. We don't see any meaningful change in the EBITDA streams but it was just enough to trip that write-down from carrying value to fair value.
Craig Shere:
No major change even looking out say, to 2021?
Alan Armstrong:
No. Not really. Just the impact of gas prices long term for the asset just brought it down just enough. So we do not see a major shift in the cash flows from that business. We have had pretty modest growth expectations in the past for that, but this effectively just stripped that out, and the growth expectations completely stripped out of there in terms of drilling activity. And so that's what -- but we have had very modest expectations.
Craig Shere:
And finally, the bookend that I put out there depending on margin per M of Northeast GMP gaining say, $600 million to $900 million plus in EBITDA over 2018 through 2021. Is that a decent bookend?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say we are very much on our way towards that $0.50 to $0.55 EBITDA per Mcf range that we've talked about earlier. And so with the volume growth and with that kind of margin improvement, the answer is yes. But I'm not crystal clear on the timing that you're laying out, just to be very, very thought through that versus that amount. But in terms of what we laid out here at Analyst Day, we're feeling very good right now about both the volume growth and the margin growth that we're experiencing.
Operator:
From Wells Fargo, we'll hear from Sharon Lui.
Sharon Lui:
If you look at, I guess, the annualized Q4 numbers for your adjusted EBITDA from equity investments, it sounds like you kind of suggest a much higher run rate versus your 2019 guidance of $825 million. And I guess if you assume contributions from Jackalope as well as Rocky Mountain continue to ramp, maybe help us try to reconcile to your 2019 outlook based on what you guys reported in Q4.
Alan Armstrong:
John?
John Chandler:
Off hand, I don't know if I have the details in front of me to be able to answer that, so I might have you call Dr. John Porter on that question.
Sharon Lui:
Okay, sure. And I guess, just a housekeeping question on the impairment charge. So there's no impact on cash flows, only on DD&A expense. Is that correct going forward?
John Chandler:
If there is an impact on cash flow, that's very minimal on Barnett. So yes, it's just that it's an uplift or it's an improvement or reduction of DD&A, that's correct.
Sharon Lui:
Okay. And then the amount that Williams actually recognized in terms of the amortization of deferred revenues, is that still about $100 million going forward?
John Chandler:
Yes, that sounds right. Yes.
Operator:
Next up is Jean Salisbury with Bernstein.
Jean Salisbury:
Just a couple of quick ones for me. So it seems like Mountain Valley and the Atlantic Coast project has hit some difficulties. And as you articled that one of these projects is ultimately canceled, could Transco address that demand with new laterals? Like, could that be a source of new projects?
Alan Armstrong:
We are very well positioned on the market end for those projects. In other words, being able to help usually existing right away, but not solely. So said another way, some of that market expansion will be required, but I would certainly say that we have a lot to offer in that regard in terms of the use of our existing right aways and systems to be able to help supply that growth. So yes, we have a lot to offer there to the degree that, that occurs. But I would also say that particularly as it relates to Mountain Valley, that there's so much continued growth in demand on our system that those supplies coming in, we're going to be -- we'll have synergies with Mountain Valley whether it gets filled as planned or not, we would have quite a bit of synergies there with that system. So I would say there's little different because they serve two very different needs, but clearly we have the ability to help out both projects.
Jean Salisbury:
That makes sense. And then just a quick clarification. That Bluestem EBITDA is all incremental from the EBITDA that you'd expected on the initial Discovery deal. I assumed, so I just want to make sure.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I think that's probably a good way to look at it. We did anticipate some NGL uplift in the Rocky Mountain midstream acquisition model. So we knew that we would be able to acquire some of those barrels ultimately, and so that's factored into that.
Jean Salisbury:
Okay. So maybe a little bit of double dipping but a lot of it's incremental?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes.
John Chandler:
I would say this though. When you collective put in the investment on Bluestem with the investment in the Rocky Mountain midstream assets, we still accomplished 6x multiple even on even a combined investment when hopefully that system is fully up and operational.
Operator:
Next up is Colton Bean with Tudor Pickering Holt & Co.
Colton Bean:
So Alan, you mentioned that continued focus on portfolio management, so just wanted to touch on that. With the vertical integration here of the Rocky Mountain processing fleet with some further downstream opportunities, does that change the way you assess those assets and kind of how they fit in the broader asset footprint?
Alan Armstrong:
No. I would say that the -- we will always look to vertical integration as one of the facets to consider when we think about whether an asset is strategic or not. Because obviously, the aggregation of barrels, for instance, gives us value opportunities, investment opportunities just like Bluestem. So we definitely think about, when we think about what assets we would want to hold and that we add value as an organization, as a corporation, what we add value to, that vertical integration is obviously a key part of that. So that is a facet that would be dependent on and certainly to the degree that we've got combined downstream investments. It makes those assets more valuable to us as a company often than to somebody else. And so I think that's the best way to think about that.
Colton Bean:
Got it. That's helpful. And then just to touch brief on the West. So you mentioned gathering volumes net of the Four Corners adjustment there, down around 3% Q-on-Q. Just interested in what you're seeing on the Haynesville system and maybe a longer-term outlook there as well.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. As we said in '17, we had a really big growth rate on Haynesville in '17, and we forecasted that we didn't expect that to occur again in '18 because that -- there was so much new plus production and the decline rates on that new plus production is pretty high. So and we -- at the first of the year, we actually saw some growth but towards the end of the year, we did see some decline on the Haynesville system, so -- and most of that from Chesapeake production. The good news is on the Haynesville system is our team has been doing a really nice job of capturing new acreage out there from third parties other than Chesapeake. So we're encouraged for the way that looks, not on the base dedicated acreage out there, not really a change on that, but in bringing -- we've been winning some new business out there. So that will help to maintain the volumes in the Haynesville.
Colton Bean:
Great. And just on those incremental agreements. At a high level, could you comment on whether those are weighted towards public or private producers?
Alan Armstrong:
Mostly private.
Operator:
From Jefferies, we'll hear from Chris Sighinolfi.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
I'm not sure if this one's for you, Micheal or Chad, but I do want to circle back on the NGL project just one more time, more from a philosophical perspective, I guess, regarding the Conway market. You guys had made clear, the advantage of gaining better access or greater access to Bellevue through Targa's system, both the pipe and the frac. And it's clearly an advantage moving barrels on your own system versus a third-party system. So I guess, two follow up questions with regard to that set up. First, your views on the Conway purity product market outlook over time and your regional frac volumes there, given these announcements seem all Y-grade in nature. And then two, do you have Y-grade contracts now on third-party assets south from Conway that you can transition to Bluestem Grand Prix over time? And if so, what sort of schedule should we anticipate there?
Alan Armstrong:
A lot of questions, I'll take a stab at a few. Let's see. First of all, on the Conway market, yes, and I think it's important to know that if we flatten out the spread between Conway and Bellevue, we're a winner in that. So you should think about that being somewhat of a natural hedge for our business because we already own those assets. And so to the degree that Conway product -- spec product prices go up in the purity markets, then that makes Conway and the services that we offer there that much more attractive, so that's a way that we think about that, obviously. And in terms of whether that's spec product or Y-grade, that's just a matter of how much incremental fractionation capacity there is on both ends of the pipe, basically in terms of being able to make those markets. Let's see. And yes, we do have contracts with third parties on Y-grade that have fixed margin built into them.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Okay. And is that something we can expect in a reasonable timeframe, maybe the next 2 to 5 years, to be up that could transition to this new collection of Williams-Targa assets? Or is it a long...
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, absolutely. No, those are -- I would say, when we start up in 2021, I think we'll be well positioned there to be able to start taking advantage of that immediately.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Okay, great. I guess switching gears and just a quick follow-up for me on one of Jean Ann's earlier questions. You had noted that when you entered the DJ JV with KKR, that you pertaining some options to acquire from KKR additional interest. And so I'm wondering, Micheal, you had said that you contemplated other NGL solutions as part of that investment. I'm wondering now that they're getting more formalized with this agreement with Targa, if it shapes your view on whether or not or how swiftly you'll exercise options with them.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say first of all, we've got 7 years, I think, total on that option, so a long time to the decide what that is. And I'll just remind you, the investment that we have with KKR is solely the GMP assets. And so, there's not an investment in the downstream value chain on that outside of that JV, it's just in the GMP assets that are proper. So it doesn't really affect so much that option value, if you will, because it's really just going to be the cash flows from that GMP business that will drive the option value there. But it does -- I would say, the relationship there with KKR is very solid, well aligned. And the fact that we have that option does keep us very focused on driving the value in the JV as well. So it's actually a pretty nice feature in terms of keeping us aligned there.
Micheal Dunn:
And us being able to provide these NGL solutions downstream creates value for the partnership there with KKR because we can go to the producers and provide a value chain there that we can give them fixed pricing.
John Chandler:
And Alan did mention earlier that what we've been successful is some new connections there at pretty attractive returns. You remember, our option with KKR is at a fixed return, so to the extent we can add new gathering business at higher returns, it just becomes that much more valuable, of course, in the future to exercise that option.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
And so I guess, final point on that then, John. Assuming your -- the guided leverage number you gave for '19, is it safe to assume that, that does not include any option exercise on that asset?
John Chandler:
That's does not. That's the beauty of this agreement. We have quite a period of time to execute that, so we've got plenty of time to continue to bring our leverage down and find that opportunity sometime in the future to execute that option.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. And I'd like to turn the conference back to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, great. Well, thanks everybody for joining us. Really excited about the platform for growth that we've got set here for '19. Teams continue to work very well together to take advantage of all these opportunities. And I would say our execution just continues to get better and better and really proud the way the teams are operating. And we like the macro conditions that are set up ahead of us, as well. So feeling very good about both 2018 and the platform for growth that we've got set up for '19 and beyond. So thank you again for joining us.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc. John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc. Chad J. Zamarin - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams Companies Incorporated Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Todd. Good morning and thank you for your interest in the Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck, that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn; and our CFO, John Chandler; and Chad Zamarin is with us as well. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles. And these reconciliations schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so, with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Well, thank you, John, and thanks everybody for joining us this morning. We're pleased to review with you a very strong quarter for – third quarter for 2018. We demonstrated continued, predictable and sustainable growth in all of our key financial metrics, and we also think this is a great platform for the more dramatic growth that has just begun. But before we get into presentation, I want to take a moment to officially welcome our new Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer, Debbie Cowan to Williams. We're really excited to have such an outstanding leader join us and join our executive officer team. Debbie's an accomplished human resources professional coming to us from Koch Industries. And we're excited to add another great member to our very talented team here at Williams. I'll pause briefly now and point to our cover slide which highlights briefly now and point to our cover slide which highlights just a couple of the many exciting construction projects that are going on in the company right now. Honestly, it's kind of hard to pick because we have so many projects going on, but here on the left-hand side is a photo of the 200 MMcf a day Fort Lupton plant III gas processing plant. So, this is the third train at this Fort Lupton site and it's expected to be in service by the end of this year. And the photo on the right is from our Oak Grove complex in Oak Grove West Virginia where you can see the construction of both TXP2 which is well underway now, as well as TXP3 which is in the background there. So, it's an exciting time for Williams now. The robust domestic natural gas demand growth is fueling demand for our fee-based natural gas infrastructure services. Natural gas usage is growing across almost all categories and has proven to be a good companion fuel for renewables, as well as we saw demonstrated this summer. And in fact, this summer was a great example of the kind of demand growth we're seeing as net power generation was up by 4% or about 15,200 gigawatt hours. But natural gas fire generation was up 17,300 gigawatt hours. So, not only did natural gas capture all the growth during the summer period, it also made up for coal and hydro losses as well. So, again, it actually outstripped – got all of the growth and then some in the space and we're continuing to see that big pool. In fact, if you really study the EIA numbers that just come out recently, you'll see that natural gas has been more than holding its own even in the face of large investments in renewables and currently accounts for over 57% of the new generation capacity that's currently in late stage development. So, it's really interesting to see this emerge and see natural gas starting to become base load now as well as following load as renewables come online. And so, a lot of new renewables but actually natural gas is outstripping that growth. So, let me just list the other things we're going to talk about today here real quickly. First off, we'll spend a little time providing perspective on some of the key investor focus areas for Williams. Then, we'll discuss the key drivers behind our financial and operational metrics for the third quarter and year-to-date. And we'll highlight the major project contributions in the third quarter and provide an update on the other key achievements that have happened during the period. And I'll wrap up by revisiting how WMB stacks up as an investment against the broader U.S. market. So, let's move to slide 2, and look at some of those key investor focus areas. First of all, we enjoyed a great quarter with many highlights. But before we get into the details of those results, I want to discuss the strong fundamentals that insulate us from many of the investor concerns in this broader space. And so, on this slide, we thought we quickly hit some of the most frequent investor topics and provide our own current perspective on how we stack up against these areas of concern. So first of all, we do get a lot of questions on our views of Northeast G&P growth. And so, that's our fee-based gathering and processing business in the Northeast. And as we all know, Atlantic Sunrise has opened up new markets for Marcellus producers and that is now driving even more accelerated growth in our Northeast G&P business segment. There's a strong demand pool from pipeline commitments and – sorry, Atlantic Sunrise's startup collapsed the local bases providing much stronger economics from producers in the area. As an example, on the day that Atlantic Sunrise was placed into service, which was October 6, Northeast Leidy gas prices rose from $1.20/Mcf to $2.70 per Mcf. Now, that by – in just one day, wouldn't tell you a whole lot except that gas prices have continued to drift upwards now for the balance of October. So, probably, in my career, that's been the most significant change that we've seen from any major piece of infrastructure changing an entire basin, not just the Leidy gas but also Dominion South and the Tennessee gas price as well. So, where is the Northeast G&P headed? Right now, we're wrapping up our annual budget cycle where we've work closely with producer customers to understand the very specific project needs that they're going to have over the next two years to meet their own business plan. This is a very detailed well-by-well work which, over the last few years, has led us to internal forecasts that have been very accurate. And for example, through September of 2018, we are within 2% of the plan (00:07:07) expectations and that's on over 7 Bcf a day of operated volumes with a number of different drivers going on. And so, that's a plan that was generated about this time last year. So, we do think we have a very good handle on the drivers and right now our forecasting work along with the minimum volume commitments that continue to build as we build out our facilities tells us that we should expect steady growth in our Northeast segment amounting to a volume CAGR of 15% from 2018 through 2021. And additionally, we also expect to realize significant operating margin uplift during this time which should drive even higher overall growth in EBITDA than that 15% CAGR. So, as evidenced of our improving operating margin, you can actually see it here in the third quarter 2018 results versus third quarter 2017, where the EBITDA per Mcf, which is a measure we've often pointed you to in our Analyst Day, that we've seen that now increase in that period again, 3Q 2017 to 3Q 2018, by 8%. So, we are seeing that come through as we had forecasted. And as our volumes build, we're going to see more and more of that benefit. So, not only growth in volumes but even faster growth in our EBITDA. Secondly, we field questions about our overall EBITDA growth beyond 2019. And while we're not providing specific guidance beyond 2019, I think we can be pretty clear about our general expectations in this area. As you probably know, our guidance for 2019 reflects approximately 10% EBITDA growth over 2018. We feel comfortable sharing our expectations of approximately 5% to 7% EBITDA growth on the longer term. And, of course, as we have new projects, that growth could improve further but we have great visibility as we look at our five-year planning cycle. We have great visibility into that 5% to 7% growth just as the business we have contracted today. And what's more, this growth is steady and predictable because it's based on fully-contracted demand payment projects and our existing fee-based business model that is not impacted by volatile commodity margins. And over the long term, it is impacted by natural gas demand. And those fundamentals just keep getting better. So, next up, let's talk about leverage. There's been significant deleveraging over the last few years and I can assure you that focus will continue into the future as we move toward a 4.2 times book leverage target over the long term. And we have been de-leveraging through an asset sale program, not by issuing undervalued equity. And as we all understand, that is going to drive long term value and this certainly is a driver as we look at the kind of growth that we're seeing in our EPS right now. So, very focused on the per share growth metrics and by continuing to go, do asset sales that have been very attractive, we think that's the best way to continue to grow shareholder value there. Our management team focused – is focused on a very rigid capital discipline. We passed up many opportunities over the last couple of years where the risk adjusted returns just no longer match up with our principal focus on improving returns and decreasing our leverage. And this focus has also led to creative portfolio optimization strategies like the sale of assets in a maturing basin in our former Four Corners Area at attractive multiples and redeploying some of that capital to the higher growth DJ Basin. In this transaction, we received an over 13 times multiple, highlighting the valuation discount that exists between the public market valuation of our company today and the indisputable market value of even the bottom quartile of our portfolio. The announced sale of the Dominion's interest in our Blue Racer Midstream JV that just came out this morning, is one more piece of evidence to support this assertion. Where they quoted on that transaction of 14 to 16 multiples. So, we see people running some of the parts, but it's very clear to us, as we're involved in a lot of these transactions, that the private side money is putting a lot more value on these reliable cash flow assets than certainly the public market is right now. And so, we will continue to work to take advantage of that situation. Next up, we've definitely heard a lot of confusion in the investment community about this year's FERC actions. The FERC rate making environment appears to have weighed on the natural gas focused names like Williams. So, I want to remind our investors that our Transco rate case was filed on August 31, with an overall increase in rate. Keep in mind, an improvement from 2018 Transco rates would be an upside to what we've provided in our 2019 EBITDA guidance. But also of importance is pointing out that we do not expect our major natural gas pipelines, not Transco, not Northwest pipeline, and not Gulf Stream, to be impacted by the 501-G process. We've seen various writings and people expressing concerns out there and we're just here to tell you that is not a concern from a Williams' perspective. And finally, we continue to be pleased with our joint venture DJ Basin acquisition. Operationally, the newly renamed Rocky Mountain Midstream is performing well and we are seeing even more growth than we expected. We have sites with permitting underway for greater than 1 billion cubic feet per day of gas processing. And certainly, we've had many questions about the Colorado Proposition 112. Based on the incredible importance of the oil and gas industry to the state of Colorado and the fact that this is a campaign run by out-of-state interest, we tend to think that the measure will not pass or that it will get significant commonsense revisions from the Senate legislator – legislature if it does pass. And we've certainly seen that. We've been in Colorado for a long time, not in the DJ Basin, but in other parts of Colorado. And we've seen these kind of things come up before, and we've always found the state there to be fairly pragmatic as a whole. And so, we really feel – are not overly concerned. We do think it's an – very important issue for the state and for the oil and gas industry, and wouldn't try to understate that in any way. But we have seen the state be pretty pragmatic over the years. But even if it does, we want to make it really clear that 100% of the forecasted wells that are supporting our growth have been permitted through 2020, and over two-thirds of the forecasted 2021 wells have also been permitted. So, really feeling good about the growth that we're seeing in that area and the proactive effort that the producing customers upstream of us have taken to have their wells permitted. So, thanks for letting us take a little time to share our perspective on these key investor focus areas, and let's move quickly to slide number 3 and take a look at third quarter 2018 results. Lots of numbers on this page here with our unadjusted GAAP results in the upper portion of the slide, and our normalized numbers in the lower portion. But looking first at our GAAP net income, we see an improvement of $96 million, increasing to $129 million. This favorable change was due primarily to a $227 million increase in operating income. Partially offsetting this improvement was an increase in the provision for income taxes driven by a valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets following the WPZ roll-up. And turning now to the adjusted metrics. We can see our adjusted EPS of $0.24 was an impressive $0.09 or 60% versus the third quarter of 2017, and adjusted EBITDA grew 7.5% in that period. This improvement was driven primarily by a $68 million increase in fee-based service revenues due largely to Transco expansion projects brought online in 2017 and 2018 and also higher gathering volumes in the Northeast G&P segment. The quarter also benefited from higher commodity margins in the West; however, these were largely offset by the changed accounting practice on revenue recognition. So, if you normalize WMB's third quarter 2017 adjusted EBITDA for the change in the revenue recognition, you would have seen a 10% growth through the same period. At the business segment level, Atlantic-Gulf adjusted EBITDA increased by $49 million in the third quarter of 2018 to $480 million. The improvement reflects a $43 million increase in, again, in fee-based service revenues primarily on Transco's Big 5 expansion projects that were placed in service in 2017 and an additional expansion project placed into service in 2018. Our Northeast G&P segment increased by 14% or $35 million to $281 million and this increase reflects a $33 million improvement in fee-based revenues due to higher volumes at the Susquehanna and Ohio River systems, and improved operating margins as we discussed earlier, and we expect both of these trends to continue for quite some time. I might also note that Williams' Other segment you can see on the slide includes historical results of our petchem services business. Now, let's move on to slide 4 and take a look at the year-to-date results. Year-to-date net income is down on a GAAP basis by $71 million versus the same period in 2017, even though operating income was up by $320 million. The 2018 net income year-to-date is missing a large gain on asset sales that was recognized in March of 2017, and that really drove that difference. Focusing now on these – on those adjusted metrics, you can see down below, we see year-to-date adjusted income per share attributable to The Williams was up 45% versus the same time period in 2017. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $70 million to $3.44 billion, even after the lost EBITDA from the Geismar plant sale and a $65 million unfavorable impact from the adoption of new revenue recognition standards in 2018. All three of our current business segments showed growth over the period – sorry, over the prior-year, driven by a $233 million increase in service revenues due largely to the Transco expansion projects, as I mentioned earlier, and higher gathering volumes in the Northeast G&P segment. So, fairly similar drivers between the third quarter and the year-to-date results. Now, let's move on to slide 5 and take a look here at the tremendous accomplishments and solid execution that our teams continue to deliver in a very predictable manner. We're very pleased with the recent announcement of the Leidy South Expansion project, which I'll talk a little bit more about here in just a moment. Very recently, the FERC approved the start of construction for our Rivervale South to Market project that will take place primarily in New Jersey. We're targeting the 2019 through 2020 winter season for completion of this project which will help meet the growing heating and power generation demand for the Northeastern customers, primarily in New Jersey and New York. So, yet another fully-contracted, high-return project that we have gotten permitted in very difficult territory. So, I will tell you it's no easy task but our teams are very good at it and continues to build a great reputation with the regulators. You may recall, we announced our Bucking Horse expansion project with our joint venture partner, Crestwood, in late July. When finished in 2019, this expansion will increase processing capacity to 345 million cubic feet per day to serve growing customer demand in the Powder River Basin. This growth is on top of the growth we are also experiencing in the Wamsutter Basin in – just to the south in Wyoming as well. We have already spotlighted our entry in the DJ Basin. That transaction occurred in the third quarter. And on October 1, we closed the Four Corners sale for $1.125 billion. The cash proceeds contribute to funding our portfolio of attractive growth capital and investment opportunities. And, of course, that gain on that sale would be recorded in the fourth quarter. We completed the Williams acquisition of Williams Partners on August 10, providing Williams with a simplified corporate structure and streamlined governance while maintaining investment-grade credit ratings. Great execution by our corporate teams on that effort. And then, most of you know that we placed Atlantic Sunrise project into service on October 6. But what you may not know is that the Atlantic Sunrise project was awarded the International Association for Public Participation's Project of the Year Award. So, this is a very large international organization that looks at big projects that require public participation and engagement and we – and that award was granted here in the third quarter. Really proud of that team. That's a very prestigious award and they look at projects all over the world for that. And so, I think a great example of the way our teams are doing things on – in a right way. We are not running over the top. And people are looking for win-win solutions with all of our stakeholders and we're focusing on environmental and regulatory compliance from the start of the project and working very closely with regulators to keep them informed. So, we do things the right way and it's – while sometimes it doesn't make us start off the fastest, we tend to win the race at the end of the day and Atlantic Sunrise is a great example of that. Atlantic Sunrise segues into an impressive list of 2019 drivers as we'll have a full year of revenue from ASR, the 1.7 Bcf per day Transco expansion. And this increases Transco's capacity now to 15.8 Bcf per day and provides $35 million of revenue per month just on that asset proper, not including the upstream gathering revenues that will flow behind that. As we already discussed, it also plays a role in debottlenecking the Northeast where we already hold the largest gas gathering position across the Marcellus and Utica Shales. This increase in gathered volumes is facilitated by gathering and processing expansions that are going on as we speak. We have another Transco expansion that will soon enhance our customers' LNG export needs. We are closing in on placing the Gulf Connector project into service much earlier than originally planned. This project has been designed to deliver about 400,000 dekatherms per day to Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi liquefaction terminal, and an additional 75,000 dekatherms per day of natural gas to Freeport LNG Development liquefaction project and we're going to be able to deliver those about three months ahead of what our original plans were for that project. So great, great effort by the teams on bringing that project in ahead of schedule. Our Norphlet pipeline in Gulf East is expected to be placed into service in mid-2019 and this will deliver some results in 2019 and then will be a bigger driver in 2020. That's in the Shell Appomattox field. They actually have four other fields that are dedicated to us in that area as well. We have completed our work on the Mobile Bay plant, and are ready to take on that gas as soon as they complete their offshore line also well ahead of schedule. And if you'll recall, if you look back in our earlier notes on this project, you would have seen we were expecting that to come on in 2020. So, another project that we're well ahead of schedule on. Let's move to slide number 6 and check in on a couple of key projects providing access to new Northeast supplies. When we spoke to you at Analyst Day in May, we referenced two expected Transco expansion projects to provide access to new Northeast supplies. First of all, known as Project Number 2 at Analyst Day, Project 2 is actually our Leidy South project. We have a 15-year commitment with Seneca Resources and Cabot for 100% of the 580,000 dekatherms of firm transportation capacity and this will continue to grow our strategic footprint in the Marcellus, adding to the 62% growth in Transco design capacity since 2013 and adding to the already 3 billion cubic feet per day of Transco's Marcellus takeaway capacity over that same time period. We are targeting a fourth quarter 2021 in-service date that will provide attractive returns consistent with the recent Transco expansions. And then, additionally, now on Project 1, this project is very much alive and well. We're awaiting final board approvals from our customers, and – on that project, and expect an announcement in the fourth quarter of this year. So, again, great work that's been going on in that, and that's a very strategic project that we're all very excited about. These two projects just keep adding to the string of hits that give us confidence and use the transparency you seek for our growth for years to come. So, with that update, let's move on to the last slide, number 7, and wrap up, and we'll take your questions. On this final slide, we've recapped many of the key points we've made detailing why Williams is a strong, stable, conservative and growing company. Many of these themes link back to things we've discussed previously in the presentation, so I won't drag you back through all that detail here again. Rather, in summary, as I've said in the beginning of the presentation, I am extremely pleased with how the company is positioned right now. Natural gas demand is experiencing strong growth, and the fundamentals continue to build on the backs of low-priced natural gas for demand, and that's really what's going to drive our success. We've experienced strong execution across our irreplaceable natural gas focused asset base. We've built an earnings base that is highly predictable and not subject to commodity price volatility. We've improved our balance sheet position and we have visibility into continued improvement primarily through capital discipline and visible earnings growth on a per share basis and earnings across all of our businesses driving that. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see the continued very favorable comparison one finds between Williams and the Median S&P 500. And as we discussed on slide 2, after what is going to be a terrific 2019 with 10% EBITDA growth, we have a clear line of sight to 5% to 7% EBITDA growth for many years to come. And this quarter, strong execution results highlight why we are so bullish on the future and we look forward to coming back quarter after quarter showing how Williams is delivering on the opportunities created by our natural gas infrastructure focused strategy. And with that, I thank you for your time today and we'll turn it over for our first questions. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our first question from Shneur Gershuni of UBS.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Just as a – thanks, Alan – as a question here, in your prepared remarks, you sort of talked about the Blue Racer asset selling for 14 times to 16 times EBITDA. You're obviously trading below that. And I'm sort of thinking about your guided dividend growth rate of 10% to 15%. Sort of given that valuation disconnect, has there been any thought about altering your return of capital plans to maybe lower the dividend growth rate and then do a share buyback in – to fill the gap? I'm just kind of wondering how you're thinking about these valuation disconnect with your discussions with the board.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great question and certainly something we constantly monitor and discuss with the board. I would say that we certainly are very focused on deleveraging. And so, I would say that is front and center. But as you've seen, being able to continue to do asset sales at these kind of multiples drives a lot of value as well and frees up capital for those kind of things. So, we certainly constantly look at those opportunities and we think there's a lot of value to be driven in the stock as we consider those various alternatives. But I wouldn't want you to lose sight of our focus on that 4.2 times metric that I would tell you both the board and the management team are pretty laser focused on right now.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
So, is it fair to say that you would – if you were offered a very attractive price, that you would consider selling assets as well also?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I would say our – we look at things first from a strategic standpoint. And as you've seen, the Four Corners asset really wasn't integrated into our asset base and we didn't see the growth in that business and what – it didn't have the kind of operating margin ratio that we typically enjoy there. So, that's one example where an asset is not really all that strategic to our future any longer. So, we certainly look – we'll look at assets like that. We also have a transaction that we're working for the purity pipes in the Houston Ship Channel area that's not – that was part of our petchem business and really not strategic to us any longer. So, I would say it's a combination of the kind of value that we think the assets can build in terms of our overall strategy. But I think, as we've proven, we're willing to pull the trigger when we see a valuation upgrade that doesn't damage our strategy in any way.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Now, that makes total sense. One last follow-up, an operational-type question. I was wondering if you can discuss what you're seeing in the Northeast in terms of producer behavior. You had strong dry gas gathering volumes but you also had higher NGL production. And at the same time, processing volumes were down. Are we starting to see a shift from dry to wet? Just kind of wondering if you can give us some color around that or if that's just really more driven from JVs and so forth?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. The Ship, I think we're going to see some dry gas volume pickup obviously with Atlantic Sunrise coming on. And I would just say the ability for producers in the Northeast PA, the volume – the wells are so large up there and can come on so fast, that if you're looking at volume, you might see a little quicker reaction up there just because of the size of the wells and the production up there and the number of pads that already exists. But I would say that, over the last nine months or so, several of the producers, and namely Southwestern, probably being the largest of those, has really ramped up their efforts and we are ramping up our efforts, putting a lot of infrastructure in the Ohio Valley Midstream area. And so, we are going to start seeing some pretty impressive volume ramp up in that area as our infrastructure starts to come on there. So, I think, really, we're going to see a pretty balanced approach to both the wet gas and the dry gas. Again, it doesn't really sneak up on us because we've got to build the infrastructure out to allow that gas to flow, and we're well on our way to getting that infrastructure built out right now.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Perfect. Thank you very much. Appreciate the color today.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Danilo Juvane of BMO Capital.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks, everyone, and good morning. Alan, now that the Atlantic Sunrise is online, how transformational do you see this being for the Northeast G&P segment? You outlined in your prepared remarks that you expect EBITDA growth in the segment to actually be higher than the 15% in volume CAGR you outlined. So, I'm trying to understand how big this could be for Williams going forward.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, Danilo, thank you. We've been investing in the Northeast for a long time kind of waiting on things to finally get debottlenecked. I don't think anybody has doubted the resource. But one thing I might point out, because we've seen a variety of different producer reports come out here in this quarter and this earnings season. And I would just point out to folks that much of the production behind our system has been held up for various reasons in terms of the production growth in those areas. Cabot obviously, and then – and our Bradford County, and our Susquehanna County area has, literally, had no way out of there at a price that made any sense. That has opened up. Even gas in the Southwestern PA area and in the West Virginia area, even though it's had takeaway capacity, the pricing has not been all that attractive until here more recently. But one thing I think people really miss is the amount of acreage that is set behind our systems that have not been drilled on. And so, if you looked at the density of drilling on our dedicated acreage versus a lot of our peers, you would see that our density of drilling is much lower than our peers, partially because there was a number of high price contracts that have been resettled. There was the Chesapeake contract that Southwestern picked up and then we reformatted for them in a way that allowed them to get after the drilling in that area. And then, even in the Utica. If you think about the Utica, Chesapeake was undercapitalized to produce the Utica. Now, we have Encino with the right capitalization to bring that up. So, really across all these areas, we've kind of been sitting right up against those points of resistance and we're now seeing those various points of resistance cleared. And so, that's really what is driving a lot of this rapid growth here as we look for the next three years.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks for that. And within that CAGR that you outlined for the volumes, how much CapEx are you assuming annually?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I don't know that we've put that actual number out there. I think if you go back to look at the Analyst Day package there, Michael can...
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. At Analyst Day, we talked about $500 million a year for our Northeast investments, and that's ramped up a little bit with the projects that we approved earlier this year at Oak Grove, but we see that as a pretty good average there in the Northeast. And other than that, a little bit to Alan's previous answer in the Northeast growth, we're seeing a lot of our producer customers that are capturing market that never has to hit the interstate pipeline. There's a lot of large power plants, gas-fired power plants that are being built right on our gathering systems. So, we move those volumes in our gathering systems from the wellhead to these power plants for our producer customers and they don't even have to leave the basin. So, there's a lot of growth there that you see from our customers that they're capturing this business.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks, Michael. Last question for me. Alan, you stated in your prepared remarks, focus on the capital discipline. As you evaluate growth going forward, have your thoughts evolved on Bluebonnet Market Express?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would say that we certainly see another project needing to be built there. We see a lot of interest. Chad Zamarin and our team there have done a great job of looking to see what kind of joint ventures are possible out there for us. And so, I would say stay tuned on that. We're certainly going to remain – have a lot of remaining capital discipline, but we've got a pretty creative team and they're doing a great job there of matching up our capital discipline with opportunities in the basin and so I'm encouraged by their activities and the kind of feedback that they're getting right now.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Those are my questions. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Danilo.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. Just want to build on the topics of portfolio management and leverage here. And it seems like in the marketplace, there's a very – there's a strong preference still for getting leverage lower and I know you have the 4.2 times kind of longer term target there, but just wondering what your thoughts were as far as possibly accelerating the kind of approach to that target. Given, as you said, Blue Racer fetched a very strong price tag. You've listed other kind of assets were non-core, especially things that came along with Access in the past and especially because you guys have such a great suite of growth projects in front of you, there's so much capital to be deployed there. I'm just wondering your thoughts on maybe being – looking to sell some more assets here and really kind of grab the bull by the horns and move that leverage down.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, I would just say, we're – as I've said earlier, we are constantly looking at that and then the opportunity is not lost on us, so – but again, we really don't want to damage our future in the process. I would say that continuing to work with the private infrastructure fund money that's willing to pay and evidently has a much lower cost to capital than the public space does right now, we see ways to work with them that provide us growth potential in the future upon exit opportunities for them. So, we think that's a pretty attractive vehicle for us. And so, we think we can continue to build our backlog of portfolios through looking at that. But I would just tell you, we're – as I've mentioned earlier, we're wanting to make sure we don't damage our long term strategy on the one hand and on the other hand, we take advantage of this. But I would say we are dead serious and very anxious to get down to that debt levered metric that we see out there. So, I would say we're working pretty hard towards that.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks. And just wanted to turn towards the guide here for a minute, and you said you're heading towards the top end of the 2018 guide. But even if you do hit the top end, it seems like it would be kind of Q4 flat versus 3Q, and granted you have the Four Corners sale but you also have Sunrise, the G&P upstream of Sunrise really providing some nice operating leverage there. So, wondering what line of sight do you have to that, exactly how that bump is materializing? And is the 4Q guide just being kind of conservative here or any other headwinds we should think of?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, I don't think there's any particular headwinds. Just a couple of things that you should consider in that math. First of all, I would say, we are making a lot of room for much lower NGL margins and, certainly, we've seen NGL margin. And so, that's not a big number for us. But within that margin of error you guys are talking about here, then it is a) something to consider. And I would just say, we're trying to make sure we've got plenty of room and you could argue we're being conservative. But we've seen these things swing hard before. And then, secondly, I would say as well, we have operating costs in – across our systems. And if you think about our Asset Integrity program, where we go out and smart-pig our pipelines, and we're constantly in the process of doing that, we want to make sure we leave plenty of money in our operating budgets to repair things when we find it. Said another way, we really don't know until we run those tests and dig systems up. We really don't know what we're going to get into in terms of repair costs, so we're trying to make sure we leave plenty of allowance in there for that. I would also tell you that is pretty conservative in terms of how we have that built into the plan right now. And then finally, you got to take out the Four Corners sale out of there as well. And remember, as you're calculating kind of that increase on ASR that we have the AFUDC, that would have been in the third quarter as well. So, that goes to earnings on Atlantic Sunrise. So, those are some finer points that would get there. I would say, in summary, I think it's fair to say that we feel very confident in being able to come in at least at the high end of the guidance range.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks. And just finally, when you talk about the 2019 EBITDA guide being 10% higher, is that relative to the midpoint of 2018? Or if you hit the high end, would it be off the high end or how do you think about that?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. It'd be off the midpoint. I mean, we haven't changed our guidance for 2019. The midpoint there was $5 billion.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got you. That's it for me. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Dennis Coleman of Merrill Lynch.
Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd like to just hit on the leverage for a couple more questions here. The 4.2 times number that you're talking about this morning, how did you come to that number? Is it – I mean, we see a lot of targets out there and oftentimes it's 4.0 times or 4.5 times. How do you come to such a precise number of 4.2 times?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. This is John Chandler. We – obviously, in preparing for the WPZ roll-up, we spent a lot of time talking to rating agencies. And we have a desire to be a solid BBB, Baa2 rated company. Solidly in that category. It became pretty clear to us during that – those discussions that that meant, on their calculations, using their – the way they do their calculations, that that was around 4.5 times. There's about a 0.02 to 0.03 difference between our book, that EBITDA ratio, and how they calculate 4.5 times. That's where 4.2 times came from. So, at a 4.2 times level, in my mind, and of course that's always subject to validation again with the rating agencies, that puts us squarely in a BBB, Baa2 solid category.
Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Perfect. Makes sense. And so, you talked about a long term target. Any guidance or any thoughts you might have as to how quickly you can get there?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, in 2019, we guided to inside 4.75 times. And we – obviously, in 2020, we'll continue to see EBITDA growth that will help bring that down further. And as Alan pointed out, we continue to look at – for opportunities for asset sales. And ultimately, to bring that down further, it will acquire some additional asset sales. I don't want to give you an exact time when we're going to get there, but I can tell you we're very focused on moving towards that as quickly as we can.
Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Okay. That's great. It was worth asking. On the DJ, if you could, you talked about, on your slide 2, having all the wells permitted out through 2020 and mostly through 2021. Can you give us any more specifics on what the forecasts are, how many wells you're thinking of, or how – what that forecasts entail?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning. This is Michael Dunn. Right now, we've got about 60 MMcf/d of processing capacity installed, and we're working to get another 200 MMcf/d in by the end of the year, first part of 2019. So, you can look at that ramp, and then we actually have construction of another 200 MMcf a day at our Kingsburg facility up there that's under construction as well. So, we expect that online in mid-2019. So, once that is online, we would have about 460 MMcf a day of processing capacity there in our new Rocky Mountain Midstream asset and we do expect, obviously, that the first 200 MMcf/d that's going online late this year or in January to be full very quickly, obviously, and that's why we have the Kingsburg facility under construction for a mid-2019 in-service date.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Just in terms of number of wells – in terms of total number of wells on that, our math shows us that we've got a little over 800 wells that are already approved looking at 2019 and 2020 and 2021.
Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Okay. That's great. And so, you would go forward with all of that, what Mike just talked about regardless of the outcome next Tuesday?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes. Though – as long as – we're certainly going to pay attention to the way that it gets treated but I would just say right now as we're moving ahead, there is plenty of gas that is waiting on this infrastructure. So, the near term construction is a certain lust and our producers are desperate to see that get installed. Obviously, we'll keep our eyes before we spend – commit any further capital to see what other changes might occur out there but, right now, there's plenty of volume, plenty of demand for the service to continue with our expansions.
Dennis P. Coleman - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
That's great. Thanks, Alan. That's all I have.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you we'll take our next question from T.J. Schultz of RBC.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just first, given the private capital available and your comments on its ability to invest at certain multiples. You partnered in the DJ, are there other opportunities to partner with private capital that may be available to leverage your system as a whole?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Absolutely. And I think the good news is we are seen as a very reliable operator in the space and we have tremendous footprints already. And so, I would just cite that the Northeast area is an area that provides a lot of consolidation opportunity and ability to reduce capital investment in the area. The consolidations always occur in these basins and we think that we provide a great investment opportunity for these infrastructure funds to invest alongside us. And so, I would tell you that Chad and his team are extremely engaged with a lot of those sources of funds right now and have a lot of irons in the fire right now looking for those opportunities.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay, good. If I just move to the Gulf of Mexico, my sense is some of the potential growth comes at somewhat lower CapEx needs. Can you just frame that a little, what maybe is a nearest term opportunity to get some of the operational leverage embedded into the system, and where would you see more meaningful investment options to kind of further that, maybe around Mexico deep water realizing that's still a bit longer-dated?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, this is Michael. I'll take that. We do have a lot of tieback opportunities there that we're working on, as you indicated, that there are low or no capital just because of the infrastructure that we've already put in place there. We're actively working on a number of those opportunities and are building those into our future guidance as we speak. So, we are very optimistic about the Gulf of Mexico right now. Our Discovery system has several opportunities along it as well. But you also mentioned the deep water in Mexico, off our Perdido system, where we're the only entity out there and we really do expect some opportunity to come our way there in the future as well. So, a lot of great projects in the pipeline so to speak there and we're going to take advantage of the infrastructure that we've built there with very high-return projects with not a lot of capital to deploy there.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And just to kind of name some of those, just to remind you, we've mentioned in the past, we've mentioned the Chevron-Ballymore prospect in the Eastern Gulf, the Shell well prospect in the West, and then there's also several Chevron prospects that we are working with them on in the Central Gulf right now as Michael mentioned around our Discovery system. So, the list actually is pretty long and some of them are more certain than others. Certainly, these very large fines like Ballymore and Well, while they're further out into the future, they are very significant in terms of revenue and EBITDA growth force with very little capital required.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Makes sense. Just last one. Thinking longer term with the liquids that you will control out of Rockies Midstream, does that provide or present opportunity for more downstream investment and how are you thinking about the ability to secure access to the coast for those barrels longer term?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, I'm going to dodge that question. I'll just tell you right off the bat here. We are working a number of different opportunities. We're really excited about how we're going to position ourselves for the future on that, but we're in quite a few discussions right now and it doesn't make sense for us to lay that out at this point.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Hey guys, two questions. One, just on the Northeast G&P, kind of that CAGR you put out. How are you thinking about the cadence of that? Meaning, very front-end loaded 2019, and then kind of tailing off? Or are you all kind of looking at that a little more evenly spread out?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Michael, this is Michael. I would say it's – obviously, expansions come on chunky, if you will. And we've got an expansion underway right now in northeast Pennsylvania that we're working on, that will increase our capacity on the system there by 800 MMcf a day. That will be coming on in tranches in 2019 as we add compression and pipeline looping. And that would put us – our capacity up to almost 4 Bcf a day on that system alone in northeast Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Supply Hub. So, I'll tell you, it will come on in chunks as we obviously expand the capabilities there, but we've got an exciting one underway right now. And we're talking to our producer customers out there right now about the next expansion that will come behind that 800 MMcf a day, specifically in northeast Pennsylvania. And the other growth that we're seeing in the Appalachian area, in southwest Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, we're seeing the producer customers there ramping up their activities. And if you saw the transcript from the Southwestern discussions, they are – once they have their Fayetteville sale, Fayetteville Shale sale executed, they fully intend to ramp up activities there as their call indicated. And that production is coming right to our Oak Grove processing facility. And we're building a lot of compression up there for them right now as well as processing capability for them and our other customers in the area. So, it will be coming on in both of those different areas in tranches But we have a lot of activity under way right now with our teams there getting ready for that capacity.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, Michael. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Hey, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
As far as the average $500 million a year multiyear figure for Northeast G&P to roughly hit the levels discussed at the May 2017 Analyst Day, since you've already announced projects that kind of place 2018 and 2019 above that trend, can we presume that the capital spend necessary in 2020 and 2021 would be significantly lower to still shoulder that seemingly roughly 11 Bcf a day in 2021?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think, for the trajectory of growth that we're discussing right now, I think that is a fair assessment. I would add though, I think the big opportunity or an incremental opportunity for us that would reduce capital even further would be consolidation of some of the joint ventures in the Southwestern part of the play, so between the Utica system, Blue Racer, OVM, and some of the other adjacent assets in the area. There are some pretty big consolidation opportunities out there that would reduce the need for more capacity to be built. So, we're hopeful that we're able to execute on some of that consolidation and more rapidly reduce the capital investment in the area.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Excellent. And speaking of the growth, the 15% CAGR seems to imply over three years about 11 Bcf but then also, it looks like in the third quarter, your adjusted EBITDA was about – almost $0.42 NM versus less than $0.39 for the first half of 2017 and you're kind of guiding towards that to grow even further given the combination of above-growth processing, increasing West gas volumes, and higher overall system utilization. Is it reasonable to think that by 2021 we could be at $0.50 plus NM implying gross segment EBITDA of over $2 billion on 11 Bcf a day?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. That's a lot of math you went through there, Craig. But I would just say as we continue to look at the marker that we set out there at Analyst Day, that we feel very comfortable with that – that we're on a trajectory right now that makes us feel very comfortable about that. And so, I would say that that was kind of set out there aspirationally that said what if the Wood/Matt growth level occurred and I would just say that we're moving past that down to more detailed base focus in our system starting to support that rather than an analyst broad picture of the basin. So, I would say we're moving off of being reliant on somebody else's forecast and becoming more reliant on our own visibility to produce redactions there. So, an answer is, yeah, we're certainly moving to that. And again, I will just remind you that because we had some areas that had been retarded from growth due to lack of – very severe lack of infrastructure out of the areas, we are in some of the higher growth areas. And so, that's driving, and maybe even a little better, than what we had laid out there earlier.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Well, to simplify it, if at least in the third quarter my math is correct, you're approaching $0.42 NM in terms of adjusted EBITDA. Is it reasonable to think – is it unreasonable to think that you could get $0.50 plus by 2021?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
It is. That is very reasonable to think that we could get there by 2020. Again, it's going to be very dependent on mix between where the volumes show up and that will move around a little bit. But we – one thing that's really come our way in a very positive manner is the Utica rich which had been on a decline and that is a very high margin basin for us and that had been on decline and that has at least stopped declining now and has a potential for growth. And so, that was working against us previously but it's starting to turn the other way for us.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Last question, when you say 10% into 2019 and 5% to 7% long term, the 5% to 7%, is that off the 2019 level or in aggregate over several years?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That is – yeah.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Off into 2019. (01:00:41)
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, that's just off of 2019 looking forward. And I would just remind you, though, that that is based on just our existing contracted business. And so, I would say there's potential for improvement as we continue growing a decent business that are not included in that forecast yet.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Understood. I appreciate the call. Congrats on the quarter.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, Alan.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Thanks for all the guided detail this morning. Two questions for me, if I could. First, in looking through the 10-Q you filed this morning, it seems like you've had roughly a $430 million working capital headwind over the last four quarters, which is significantly more than I could find of any time in the last 10 years. So, I'm curious, what's driving that? And then, if we might expect it to reverse in the future quarters?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'm not aware offhand of what that – really that there's some unique working capital drop. If I had to guess, we've had a significant amount of capital spend. And so, you probably have a build in payables at the end of a quarters for projects that are underway that we know we've invested but haven't had an outflow yet. We'll definitely look into that and give you more details, but I suspect it has probably something to do with capital spend.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. But if that's – if that – if your hunch is correct, we should see then some reversal in the future?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. And then, second, and this is just a curiosity question, but the analyst package last night have listed $35 million in preferred stock contribution to the Williams Foundation. I haven't seen you guys do anything like that before, although ONEOK had made a similar contribution to its own foundation last year. So, I was just wondering what the terms of that preferred stock are, realizing it's very small? And then, what your plans are, if any, for additional future contributions to the foundation?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. The preferred stock has a 7.25% coupon on it. We have no plans to add anything to that. That was part of just planning and structure around the roll-up, just like ONEOK would have had in their situation. So, that will be outstanding. We annually make a contribution to our foundation anyway. And so, whether we're making it in an actual cash contribution or doing it through a dividend, the outcome is really the same to Williams. Yeah, and so, we'll just increase it. We'll be paying a dividend in lieu of some cash contributions we historically have made to the foundation.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. So, this is consistent to historical treatment but just more of a streamlined approach.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And it accomplished a structural need that we needed in the roll-up. But again, much as ONEOK did, and we saw the light from their transaction. And so, pretty complicated question. But I would just say in practical terms, so it is very much – that activity was very much driven by that structure but – in the roll-up, But I would say that practically, in more pragmatic terms, as John mentioned, we've had that expense out there. This covers that for quite some time for us. So, it's actually a positive against what you would have seen in previous cash flows. But I also would tell you that we – the foundation is very strategic to the company. When we go into new communities, we like to show that we're a good neighbor in the communities that we operate as Williams. And the Williams Foundation helps support us being a good corporate citizen in those communities. And so, it is a very strategic investment for the company to make those investments in the foundation.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
All right. Thanks a lot for the time, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. So, Alan and Michael, just circling back briefly to the comments on margin expansion in the Northeast. You kind of noted the overall uplift there at the EBITDA level, but specifically thinking about cost, it seems like unit costs have held pretty steady here through kind of year-to-date 2018. As you look at the volume ramp and you've dialed in kind of your expectations through the budgeting process for 2019, how should we think about the progression of OpEx over the course of 2019 just relative to where we sit here?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the question. We obviously have higher cost as we add compression and we'll add operators to go in and operate the equipment there. But I have to remind you, as I do every quarter, in regard to the electricity cost, a lot of our compression that we're adding is electric compression due to the regulatory constraints on the air shed there. And so, that shows an increase in our operating cost, but the majority, if not all of that, is reimbursable from our customers. And so, you won't show that netted out from that reimbursement against our operating costs, in our operating cost line. It actually comes to us in other income. So, you will see an increase and it will look disproportionate to our actual cost that we have experienced in the past and it's all driven by higher electricity costs that are reimbursed elsewhere.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. So, overall expectation is declining unit costs they just do not reflect on a line item specific basis?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's right. We continue to see our EBITDA per Mcf going in the right direction and our cost per Mcf moved going in the right direction as well.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. And just on the West there, so a slight downtick in volumes. Can you guys provide a bit more detail on the moving parts there at the basin level? And then, just a quick follow-on. So, you mentioned DJ outlook being insulated by permits; any thoughts on the impact to the Piceance?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. A lot of the Piceance is – one, it's not very heavily populated, if you've ever been out there. But two, the – a lot of that is on federal land as well and, of course, this – that Colorado Proposition 112 doesn't affect federal land. So – and a lot of the producers actually own the land that they operate on out there. So, very different picture for the Piceance and don't expect much impact there. And so, I would just say that that's really the only exposure. The other area down around Durango and so forth, of course, that was the Four Corners Area asset. We've operated in that area for a lot of years, but that now is sold. So, we don't have exposure anywhere other than the Piceance and the DJ Basin. Oh, I'm sorry; you had asked about the Western volume. Sorry. Sorry about that. Yeah. Don't have a whole lot a color to add to you on that – for you on that. We constantly have some up and downs. The Haynesville growth had been driving a lot of the growth there in the Western volumes and we've seen – as we forecasted last year, we expected that to level off a little bit in terms of that rampant growth. We are seeing a lot of new opportunities with new customers in the basin and we're really excited about that. So, we may see the growth in the Haynesville come back more from customers outside of the Chesapeake acreage there in the area. Chesapeake continues to be successful but not seeing the kind of growth we saw from them last year. So, that's probably the biggest moving part if you looked at 2017 to 2018 in terms of what the growth drivers have been behind the basin. I would say, both Wamsutter and the Jackalope system are the two areas that we're going to see some growth here as we look forward to the next 6 to 12 months.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Appreciate the time.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. On the DJ Basin, I understand your comments on where you think you've got wells permitted and DUCs, et cetera. But let's say, hypothetically, that this does pass. How much of your 5% to 7% EBITDA growth is attributable to DJ Basin growth?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
It – Bec, it's really – since it's in that outer period, it's really not factored into that so much at all right now. So, it will start to add up in 2020 and 2021. It will start to be meaningful but as we look forward to that right now, it's really not a very big factor in our overall 5% to 7% growth. So, we're hoping...
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Super.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
We're hoping that it will be but just given the limited size of the investment there, it's not that meaningful against the number right now.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
And just wanted to dig a little bit deeper on your thought process on making investments, assuming that this does not pass. But there's still, I think, a view that this is still going to be an issue in Colorado and it may come up whether legislated or two years from now. So, how does that play into you making decisions for long term capital investment on plants besides these first two plants?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Again, I think we're going to see responsible development. I think Williams is very good at being responsible. I think the industry is going to shape as it needs to, to merge with Bucklift (60:58) And by the way, if somebody thinks this is going to be limited to Colorado, I would tell you that this move came from outside of Colorado, and I'm not sure that the move against development in areas is going to be limited to just Colorado. And I think producers and midstream infrastructure providers are in a different world today than we were five years ago, and we're going to have to learn to deal with the various stakeholders. I think Williams is extremely good at that. And because of our school of hard knocks that we've had in the Northeast, I think we're very good at that. And so, I would say I think these kind of areas present an opportunity for us because we found ways to appease the concerns and the needs and – to be able to grow infrastructure in a responsible manner in the area. So, yes, it's an area that I think will slow growth down. But if you think about that from a midstream infrastructure provider standpoint, this is a – something that's lost on people a lot of times because people are focused on the short term too often. But to the degree that you have acreage dedicated to you, if that acreage all got drilled at once, the efficiency of your input structure would be very low because you'd have to build all your capital at once, all the cash flows would come through in one spike, and you wouldn't have the longevity of the cash flows, and you'd have to build for a bigger peak. And so, I would just tell you that a rate of development that is more sustained is actually a positive for return – long term returns on midstream infrastructure and I think that's missed on people pretty often as they think about this issue.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you. And then, the next question is just, I want to clarify that in your guidance there is zero uplift from Transco rate case?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's correct.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi, everyone. I just have one question on the Northeast. The 15% CAGR, could you give us a general idea of the breakdown of that growth between Northeast PA and Southwestern PA/West Virginia? Just trying to get a sense of like if one is higher growth than the other.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, Christine. Let me see – give you a little bit of color here. Probably on a percentage basis, the two highest areas are the Ohio River Supply Hub area, particularly on a margin basis; and then Susquehanna Supply Hub is probably right behind that; and towards the bottom of that would be the Bradford Supply Hub; and then last would be the, in terms of what we have assumed in here right now, would be Utica Supply Hub. But I would tell you, there is a remarkable small amount of difference if you looked at the CAGR for each one of those. It's actually pretty balanced in our current forecast.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. And then, I just wanted to touch on the equity method investments in the Northeast. Quarter-over-quarter, we saw a bit of a jump from 2Q. I was just wondering if you could just talk about which JV specifically drove that, and how we should think about that going forward?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I'm looking and see if Michael or John have...
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think that's probably in the Bradford.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. (01:15:06)
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I would say, that's where we saw the biggest volume growth. It's in the Bradford JV.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's correct. It was Bradford.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Bradford and Marcellus South.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
(01:15:20)
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And Marcellus South is part of our Ohio River Supply Hub, and so it sits on the eastern flank of our Ohio River system and feeds processing volumes into Ohio River.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Bradford had about a 9% increase in volumes...
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I'm sorry.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
...quarter-over-quarter. Bradford had about 9% increase in volumes quarter-over-quarter.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury of Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning. Just two quick ones for me. First, have you noticed interest from different classes of generalist investors since the buy-in of WPZ or nothing really changed that much?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'll take it. Nothing's changed that much as we speak, or I think our price would be performing a little bit stronger than it has been. But I can tell you we are extremely focused on talking to new investors. We spent some time in Europe. We'll spend some time in Asia here very soon. We'll spend some time in Canada, and with the sole focus of identifying new investors and attracting new people to our name. We think we've got a powerful story to tell with our stability, our strong yield and the growth that we've got in our business. So, we've just got to get that out of the marketplace. But our goal is to accomplish that within the next year for sure.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Yes. That makes sense. And then, could you give a little more color on the mood of the Permian E&Ps in signing up for gas takeaway? Do you feel like most believe that they'll be able to flare if they need to? So, that it kind of puts less pressure on signing up at all? Or is it more that they probably will sign up, but perhaps with competitors other than Bluebonnet and it's just gotten very competitive out there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Chad, you want to take that?
Chad J. Zamarin - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'd just say I think there have been two projects that have been sanctioned so far that's for 4 Bcf a day of takeaway capacity. So, that does, I think, provide some relief in the basin in the near term. But I will also say that those projects had a variety of different investors and I would also say risk-adjusted returns that wouldn't really look attractive to us when we look at our opportunities for investment. So, I think that we're going to continue to watch the basin. There is additional need for takeaway over time. But we also want to make sure that we don't participate in any overbuild coming out of the basin. And so, we're going to continue to be thoughtful and disciplined. We're certainly out there talking to every producer. We're looking at every opportunity, but we'll – if we do something with respect to a project from the Permian to our Gulf Coast assets, we're going to make sure it's a smart investment. I would say though that even if we don't, in the near term, participate in building a pipe from the Permian to our Gulf Coast assets, we're seeing a lot of interest in those volumes wanting to get to the Transco system and deliver into markets along our footprints. So, we will participate in moving Permian gas through to Transco markets one way or another and, like I said, we'll continue to look for opportunities to build that larger infrastructure. But right now, those projects just aren't as attractive as I think they need to be to make it to the top of our list.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Sure. That makes sense. That's all for me, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes our questions for today. I'll turn it back to Mr. Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Great. Well, thank you. Thanks for the great questions and we continue to be really excited about the way the third quarter turned out and importantly, obviously, as you heard today, the catalyst that we think this sets up and the nice platform for growth that we've got established going forward. So, very stable cash flows, very predictable as we continue to make our numbers and we look forward to reporting more good news to you next quarter. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Chad J. Zamarin - The Williams Cos., Inc. Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc. John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc. Terrance Lane Wilson - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC Derek Walker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams, Williams Partners' Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Todd. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck, that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Also joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn; our CFO, John Chandler; and Chad Zamarin, our Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so, with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Well, thank you, John, and thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. I'll get right into it here. This was another very predictable quarter for us from a financial metric perspective. It was just slightly above our internal plan for the quarter that was used to forecast our guidance that we've provided to you. However, the extraordinary thing about the quarter was the tremendous amount of progress on projects, planned expansions and new business that was contracted during the quarter that gives us even more confidence in our growth rate for years to come. We are obviously looking forward to more dramatic growth in the second half of the year as Atlantic Sunrise project nears completion and producer activity on our systems in the Northeast and in Wyoming continues to ramp up. We're also excited about the transactions announced earlier this week. Selling assets in a very mature basin at attractive multiples and then redeploying that capital to higher growth basins allows us to capitalize on future growth opportunities without stretching the balance sheet or issuing equity. It is also clear that the demand for natural gas that we have been saying is just around the corner has recently come to life in a very dramatic manner. In fact, all sectors of natural gas demand are up in 2018 compared to the equivalent 2017 time period. LNG exports are up 57% for the year-to-date versus 2017. Power is up as well, up about 9% versus 2017. Residential is up and industrial is up and growing very rapidly. As a result, we have storage inventories now that are nearly 560 Bcf or 20% below the five-year average, yet price remains low, which is just creating another wave of investment in businesses poised to take advantage of this low pricing clean fuel. All of this spells higher production volumes and transmission throughput here in the U.S. to keep up with this rapidly growing U.S. and global demand. And as I think most of you appreciate, no one is better positioned to benefit from that growth in volumes without taking commodity price risk than Williams. And now some quick financial highlights that I'm excited to share with you from the quarter, first of all, we are up quarter-over-quarter in net income for WMB by over 66% and up quarter-over-quarter in adjusted income per share by 31%. On the WPZ side, we were up about 33% in net income quarter-over-quarter. So, for today's call, we're going to hit the following topics. First of all, the key driver behind our financial and operations metrics for 2Q and year-to-date, I'll highlight the major project contributions in 2Q and provide an update on other key achievements, also discuss the two strategic transactions that we announced earlier this week and finally highlight the value proposition to be created by the WPZ merger. And then, of course, as always we'll take questions. But before we move on to slide 2, I want to publically welcome Vicki Fuller, our newest Independent Director on The Williams' board of director. Vicki most recently led the New York State Common Retirement Fund where she had tremendous success as an investor there and leading the organization on their investments. She brings a wealth of leadership skills and financial expertise. Her investment management insights will be invaluable in our ongoing efforts to expand our investor base and maintain crisp focus on creating long-term shareholder value. Vicki will serve on the Audit Committee and the Nom. and Gov. Committee. Her appointment you may recall follows the June 4 appointment to the board of Nancy Buese. Nancy is currently Executive Vice President and CFO for Newmont Mining Corporation. Prior to that she was the CFO at MarkWest, now MPLX, and a key part of that leadership team that created tremendous shareholder values over the years and during her tenure there. We're already benefiting from her outstanding financial and energy leadership experience. And Nancy is serving on the board's Compensation and Management Development Committee as well as our EH&S Committee. I really am excited to welcome both Vicki and Nancy to our board of directors as we continue to build on what I think is the strongest board in the sector. Going to move on to slide 2 now and first of all, net income on a GAAP basis is up at both WPZ and WMB quarter-over-quarter. This is primarily the result of an increase in operating income of about $68 million at WPZ. WMB's GAAP EPS was up $0.06 per share or 60% versus second quarter of 2017. After adjustments for certain non-recurring items, WMB's adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.1 billion. Williams also delivered strong growth in EPS on an adjusted basis and adjusted income per share was up 31% over the second quarter 2017. As you can see on this slide, if you adjust for the sale of our olefins business and the impact of adopting new accounting standards for revenue recognition, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up about 4%. This was a little above our quarterly plan, but both financials and operating stats were impacted by several plant outages, most notably the Mobile Bay and Echo Springs plant in Wyoming. NGL margins for the whole industry were extremely strong in the quarter, but our impact was limited by both NGL takeaway capacity as well as NGL hedges, which impacted us by about $7 million. In both cases, these plants were being modified to get ready for significant increases in volumes from the very liquid-rich new streams of gas. So, a lot of new opportunities coming on, including the Norphlet in the Eastern Gulf, and we are getting very near being completed with all of our work that readies our systems for that very large influx of very rich gas and as well in Wyoming in the Wamsutter field there, a lot of work going on and a lot yet to come in that area to ready for also a very large stream of new rich gas in that area. So, a great job by our teams in executing these efforts in a well-planned and safe manner. We also accelerated a significant amount of pipeline integrity work that was planned for the second half of 2018 into this quarter. The maintenance cost shifted from the second half to the first half was to take advantage of the timing of outages associated with expansion, construction work and project work that's been going on along the Transco system. This timing of maintenance work minimizes the impact on our customers, while reducing future revenue interruptions. Additionally, most of the increase in maintenance CapEx during the quarter was also on Transco and we fully expect to recover this capital investment via Transco's rate case. Let's move on to slide 3 and look at our year-to-date results. Year-to-date net income is down on a GAAP basis for both WPZ and WMB. The absence of a large gain on asset sales in the first quarter of 2017 affected the results and this comparison for both entities. Moving on to our non-GAAP results, which normalizes for non-recurring items like the 2017 gain on asset sales I mentioned earlier, our first half adjusted income per share attributable to WMB was up an impressive 33% over the first half of 2017 and WMB's adjusted EBITDA was $2.245 billion, again slightly ahead of our business plan that was used to create our guidance. And as you can see on this slide, if you adjust for the sale of our olefins business and the impact of adopting new accounting standards for revenue recognition, WMB's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was up about $99 million or 5%. So, now let's move on to slide 4, where you'll see a list of several accomplishments and projects that are in progress. Here on slide 4, as you can see, our second quarter results featured contributions from a number of recent achievements. First of all, the Transco team placed Phase 2 of the Garden State project in service during March. Our customer activity continued to grow in the Northeast, where our inlet gas processing volumes were up more than 37% in our Ohio Valley Midstream processing complex in looking at the second quarter of 2018 versus same period of 2017. Our gathering volumes were up 160 million cubic feet per day quarter-over-quarter and up by approximately 250 million cubic feet per day on a year-to-date basis. Led by the Haynesville again, the West combined natural gas gathering volumes were up 270 million cubic feet per day on a year-to-date basis. And in the Atlantic Gulf, we saw Transco's transportation revenues up $114 million or 16% on a year-to-date basis and this was driven by fully contracted expansion projects. There are several good updates listed here for our various projects, including our Southeastern Trail project, which filed its FERC certificate application in April. In Wyoming, we just announced an exciting expansion on our Jackalope Gas Gathering System and associated Bucking Horse gas processing facility in the Powder River Basin that will increase processing capacity to 345 million cubic feet per day by the end of 2019 to meet the growing customer demand in this under-served growth basin. We also have begun construction activities on another major expansion of our G&P system in the Wamsutter field to serve Southland's fast growing production that was recently contracted. We achieved key milestones on Northeast Gathering and Processing expansion projects, which were highlighted at Analyst Day. We've now executed final agreements supporting system expansions in Northeast Pennsylvania, which are expected to increase capacity by about 800 million cubic feet per day. So, this is another expansion on top of the one that we just completed here at the first part of this year up in the Susquehanna Supply Hub area and we also have another major expansion underway at our Oak Grove gas processing facility in West Virginia, which is also fully contracted and we'll expand that system dramatically as well. The effects of these additions of supply are just now beginning to show as we complete key compressor facilities on our gathering systems that allow newly connected pads to begin flowing. So, we are really impressed with some of the production rates that we're seeing from some of the new pads that we're just now turning on. The number of projects that our teams are managing in the Northeast are way too numerous to mention here, but the fruits of their labor will begin to show later this year and into 2019. As mentioned at the top, we are nearing completion on our Atlantic Sunrise project and are targeting full in-service towards the end of this month for that 1.7 billion cubic feet per day expansion on our Transco system. I'm going to pause here just a minute and tell you how proud I am of our project teams for their focus on doing the right thing, both from a safety perspective and an environmental compliance perspective. They have been very thoughtful in listening to regulators and key stakeholders in the communities and their careful planning, engineering and patience is truly distinguishing our efforts as we near completion of this important project. They have dealt with very tough regulatory issues, religious orders, a very tight skilled labor market and record levels of rainfall with tremendous diligence, professionalism and integrity. And while we are still battling the impacts of major flooding in the area last week, we are pouring it on in order to bring this one over the finish line as the weather allows. So, let's move on to slide 5 and talk about the two strategic transactions announced this week. Our ongoing business and project execution has become remarkably predictable, but we have also been working hard to manage our portfolio of assets in a way that maintains our platform for growth for many years to come. I'm really pleased with our execution on the two big transactions we announced earlier this week. First of all, Williams, along with KKR as our joint venture partner, announced the acquisition of Discovery DJ Services for $1.173 billion, subject to the customary closing conditions and purchase price adjustments. Our initial contribution is 40% of the purchase price or said another way, Williams is responsible for approximately $470 million of that total purchase price and will be the operator of these very attractive assets in the DJ Basin. The assets feature a total of 260 million cubic feet per day of gas processing capacity, which is expected to be in service by the end of this year and permitting underway for greater than 1 Bcf a day of gas processing that is required to service the 260,000 acres that are already under dedication. In addition to the attractive growth opportunities we see just in gathering and processing, Williams also expects to generate additional value by integrating production from these assets with our existing footprint in our West segment, including our downstream NGL assets. We expect the Discovery transaction to represent a 5 times to 6 times multiple and that's using The Williams' investment inclusive of the required growth CapEx based on the 2020 EBITDA forecast and the growth on the asset should continue to ramp well beyond 2020 and of course that multiple will get even better as that growth occurs. Now we realize that this multiple seems higher than a competitive market would typically allow, but this is an example of when we can take unique downstream synergies being applied to a 50% upstream investment. So, said another way, we are enjoying 100% of those synergies, but they are being applied to a 50% upstream investment and that really is what drives that much higher-than-market multiple. We like this strategy a lot and I would tell you that our team has been working hard to develop these kind of opportunities where we work with private dollars and really leverage those to take advantage of a lot of the great synergies that we have available to us from our large scale footprint across the U.S. Concurrently, we announced the sale of the Four Corners asset for $1.125 billion in cash from Harvest Midstream Company, an affiliate of Hilcorp Energy Company. The cash proceeds will help fund the Discovery transaction in a portion of our extensive growth capital and investment expenditure portfolio. The Four Corners Area has been an important part of Williams dating back to its acquisition in 1983. However, pressure on natural gas pricing from adjacent basins, like the Permian, demand a new basin model that consolidates and integrates upstream production with midstream operation in a way that optimizes throughput and lowers cost. We believe that Harvest Midstream along with Hilcorp are ideally positioned to achieve this integration while Williams is able to redeploy the proceeds into improved opportunities for growth. This value and multiple on EBITDA of 13.7, we are receiving as a testament to the high-quality assets that Williams' employees have grown and maintained in the Four Corners Area for the past 35 years. So, now, let's look at the next slide and discuss the CapEx guidance update. After consideration of the effects of both the purchase of the Discovery DJ Services and the divestiture of the Four Corners Area as well as several other forecast updates, our current guidance from a Analyst Day on May 17, 2018, remains unchanged except for our growth capital expenditure. Growth CapEx has been revised for 2018 and 2019 to account for the inclusion of the purchase of the Discovery system and other projects included. In the 2019 figure are our planned Niobrara expansion and our various expansions in the Northeast G&P segment. While CapEx is up due to the Discovery deal, it's important to note that the Four Corners transaction allows us to fully finance the initial Discovery DJ investment and its follow-on CapEx without issuing any equity or increasing our debt and we've generated additional cash flow beyond those needs to finance other growth projects. So, while this transaction doesn't drive the metric shown on this page, the Harvest and swift deployment of capital into higher returning opportunities that take advantage of our downstream synergies is a terrific example of how we're focused on driving shareholder value through active portfolio management. Now, let's look at the key investment benefits for Williams' shareholders following the rollup of WPZ. We look here at slide 7. Williams is certainly unique investment amongst the S&P 500 companies. The post-merger entity will provide a large scale entity, focused on natural gas with significant growth opportunities, low volatility and highly predictable fee-for-service cash flows. After the WMB-WPZ merger closes, we'll have a much more simplified org structure and a highly liquid C-Corp with associated shareholder rights and impressive market capitalization. Our attractive dividend yield and growth along with our strong focus on improving ROCE will deliver significant advantages for shareholders. Williams fares extremely well when compared to other S&P 500 companies in dividend yield, adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA growth and dividend growth. In fact, Williams is so unique that you'd be hard pressed to find another S&P company whose consensus estimates meet or exceed Williams' outlook for these key measures. Now, we're going to move on to slide 8 here to wrap up. So, as we wrap up the presentation here and prepare to take questions, this slide 8 really provides a good summation of Williams' attractive position. Our financial results are meeting expectation with solid results for our continuing businesses. Importantly, net income and adjusted EPS are both up substantially quarter-over-quarter. There's also clear visibility to future growth. We are leveraging advantaged assets and approaching our expected in-service date for the Atlantic Sunrise project. We expect Northeast volume growth to accelerate into the end of 2018 and continue to grow at 2019. The West portfolio is also gaining attractive growth opportunities and we have plenty of great high-return investment opportunities to invest the proceeds from the sale of our Four Corners Area business. Finally, The Williams and Williams Partners merger is on track and as a reminder, our special Williams stockholder meeting to vote on the proposed merger of WPZ and to WMB will be held on August 9 at 10:00 AM in the morning, Central Time, at our Tulsa headquarters. Williams' stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 9, 2018, are entitled to vote. I would remind those who haven't yet voted to please do so. Assuming a successful vote when the merger is completed, Williams simplified structure, investment-grade credit ratings, growth opportunities and cash flow available to fund that growth, all contribute to positioning Williams as a uniquely attractive investment opportunity compared to almost any sector or equity across the broad universe of investments. So, with that, we thank you very much for your time today and operator, let's take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our first question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I just want to touch on the transactions in the West here that you completed. And just wondering if there is any more to read into this as far as looking to kind of diversify into – more into liquids-rich areas or kind of grow the presence in more basins, bigger presence of the basins inside the Northeast. How did this factor into your thought-process here?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Well, thank you. Great question. And I would just say that, we're always looking for basins where we have a lot of downstream synergies to be able to apply and it's really a unique situation when we can take private dollars and invest a smaller slice of our own capital and do something, but enjoy the downstream of synergies and drive downstream synergies into our existing asset base. And so, I think that's really the clue that you ought to be looking for is really where we can drive synergistic value and that unique competitive advantage that we have in a process like that is really where our efforts are focused. And so, I wouldn't see this as wide scale outside of areas where we've got the ability to drive quite a bit of synergies with either existing assets in the basin or with downstream assets that we could develop.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks. And just wondering, Bluebonnet, if there's anything new to report there.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I'm going to ask Chad Zamarin to take that. Chad?
Chad J. Zamarin - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Thanks. I would just say that we continue to advance that project and we strongly believe that Permian volumes are going to want to access Transco markets, which are truly second to none. So, we do see a lot of momentum towards a build-out from the Permian towards Transco markets. I would just say that we're going to remain disciplined in how we contract that project. It's certainly an active area to competitive market. We've got a great inventory of projects across our footprint. So, we're confident that, that infrastructure will be available for us to build to bring those volumes into Transco markets, but at the same time, we're going to be thoughtful about how we contract. I would say we've seen one project fully contracted for a Permian takeaway and we fully expect that there will be multiple additional projects over time. And so, we've continued to see good momentum on the BMX project and we'll continue to work it as we move forward.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks. And then, in Appalachia outside of Northeast PA, I was just wondering if you could give us a feel for producer activity and focus on drivers as you see in your areas there and how you see volumes trending. And then, NESE as well, just wondering if you could add any new updates there. Thanks.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. This is Michael Dunn. I'll take that question. In the Northeast, we are seeing our volumes grow really significantly in the Ohio River Supply area with the richer gas that's coming into our Oak Grove processing facilities. So, we're anxiously awaiting the in-service date of our second train there at Oak Grove to process this gas and we think we'll be at capacity on Train 1 that's already in-service there by mid next year, which is when we expect Train 2 to come online. So, really seeing a lot of good growth there. We saw about 30% growth in the Marcellus South year-to-date compared to last year at the same time and so really excited to see those volumes coming on. And also in Susquehanna and Bradford, we're seeing volumes grow there as well, but overall, we'd expect volume to continue to grow in Northeast Pennsylvania after Atlantic Sunrise comes online and we see some of those volumes continue to grow from our customers there. As far as NESE goes, on the NESE project, I think you've probably seen the updates that we've had there in regard to our permits that we've been working through with New York and New Jersey on the 401 certifications under the Clean Water Act and both of those permits have been resubmitted to New York and New Jersey. And we're working with both of those states to continue to process the permits, the data requests there. We have a draft EIS that's out on the project as well and continuing to work with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the core of engineers in the states to process those permits, but we have anticipated now that will slide the in-service date out to the end of 2020. And I will tell you and remind you that we typically do risk-adjust our revenues in our guidance and our balance plans and so that will closely align with where we anticipated our revenue in the first place with the projects. So, we've had a shift of capital out of 2019 and more closely aligned with the 2020 and service date on NESE.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. I'll stop there. Thanks for taking my question.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. If I could also start with the acquisition, could you provide any additional information about your option to acquire a portion of the KKR interest at the predetermined, agreed-to terms?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure, Christine. I'll ask John Chandler to take that.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. First, I want to say just generally about the structure, we find KKR to be an excellent partner in this project. This is unlike maybe some of the traditional partner investments you've seen with private money in that this isn't a preferred investment. So, there is preferred coupon or anything like that between joint venture partners in this transaction. Even though it's an initial 40%, 60% investment, 40% Williams, 60% KKR, we do have voting control and governance control in the partnership from day one. And over the next year-and-a-half, we will bring our equity interest up. We invest first dollars in the growth projects over the next year-and-a-half, which will bring our economic interest up to 50%, 50% interest. And as it relates to the buyout option, we do have a buyout option in the future with KKR, but we're able to call their interest as – I'm not going to give you the exact return, but it's a low to mid-teen type return. We believe these assets on their own just the gathering assets produce a return higher than that. So, we think that's going to be a very attractive economic option for us in the future. But it's at our option to call that interest for a limited period of time and in the future. And in doing that, we did give up something to them. We gave them a liquidation preference in the event there was ever a meltdown of the investment, which is highly unlikely. And so, they did receive that return for us getting the right to call their interest and also the right not to be drug if they did sell their interest and we didn't want to participate in that. That answered your question?
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yes. Thanks. And then, can you talk about how the contracts are structured for the Discovery asset? Is it fear of pop (30:53) and will you be offering a bundled service for the gathering processing, Overland Pass and frac? And also would you have to loop Overland to accommodate those volumes?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Christine, thank you. The business is almost all fee-based there in the DJ Basin and there are downstream contracts for the NGL services that are separate for that. And in terms of whether we would have to loop OPPL, I think that's dependent on other actions from players, but unlikely I think, given ONEOK's Elk Creek facility and the White Cliffs conversion, I think it's unlikely that, that would be required. But – so, we don't really expect that to occur. So, I think, we see a lot of opportunity under our existing contracts and business to really help the DJ Basin producers and get access to attractive markets and we think we're well positioned to do that and that's where a lot of those synergies come from.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then, up in the Northeast, just in your prepared remarks, you had mentioned the Oak Grove expansion is being contracted. Can you remind us what those are? There were some contracts that you announced and the acreage had turned over from some of the original producers to ETT and Southwestern. But just curious if there were any additional signed subsequent to that.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. Christine, this is Michael again. Those are the primary contracts we have there, but we're obviously talking to a lot of different producers up there that are bringing in rigs at least anticipated and we'll continue to have new contracting opportunities to continue to fill that, but, right now, we have, like I said earlier, Oak Grove TXP Train 2 under construction and we're actually under construction with a portion of the civil work on Train 3 as well, which we think will probably need by the end of 2019, early 2021, once Train 2 fills up. So, we expect Train 2 to rapidly fill in 2019 and be at capacity by the end of the year. That's why we're currently building Train 3 as well and even talking to our internal parties and some of our producers up there about a need for Train 4 after that. So, there's a lot of activity up there and we're pretty excited about it.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And I would just add to that, Christine. In addition to the Oak Grove or to the Ohio Valley Midstream area proper, we also have some expansion ongoing with Chevron on the LMM system as well. That's new business to us. And so, really kind of across the board right now with the one exception being the Utica, we're seeing pretty substantial growth and, of course, we're excited about the new investor in the Utica replacing Chesapeake there who is going to bring a lot of new capital to that area. So, while Utica has really been kind of the slower growing piece of our Northeast position, we're really excited about their plans there in the Utica now.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Very helpful. Thank you.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I should have also talked about our NGL pipeline that we announced at Analyst Day as well that we're well on our way to having that project completed probably in the second quarter next year from our Oak Grove facility up to the Harrison Hub as well. So, we've made great progress there. We've got all the right-of-way acquired. We've cut the majority of the trees along the right-of-way and we'll start construction on that this fall.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt Company.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. So, it looks like the Northeast unit operating expenses were relatively flat versus Q1. So, just given the volume trajectory you guys expect in the second half of the year and then particularly moving into 2019, should we expect that rate to continue to decline or I guess, definitely, how are you thinking about the potential margin expansion you've highlighted in the past?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Colton, great question. I would say, yes, we are expecting as volumes continue to grow and we continue to take cost down. The second quarter is always a – and particularly this second quarter where we had a lot of rainfall in the area, so there was a lot of pipe slips in the area and even a lot of road damage in the area that we had to contend with up there tends to drive our operating costs higher. As well, it's also the time when we come out of a thaw period there in the Northeast and we start doing a lot of our maintenance work in overhauls. So, typically, the second quarter gets a lot of those kind of incremental cost. So, even though we were able to hold it flat, I think if you normalize for those, you'd start to see a trend towards even better unit margin than you're picking up on. So, we're really excited about that. The team is very focused on that and I would tell you, as an organization, we focus on and in our goals is the operating margin ratio for each of these areas, which is very close to the EBITDA unit margin that you're looking at. And so, we pay very close attention to that. The teams are measured on that and the executive team is compensated on that. So, you'll continue to see us really pushing on those numbers and the teams are extremely focused on that.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I'll just add to that, Alan. We do have variable cost up there that are driven by our electrical power costs. We do have a lot of electrical compression in the Northeast. And so, when we have volumes ramp up, those power prices – those power costs are translated into our operating expense, which for the most part are reimbursed, but it's not netted against our operating expense, it comes in other revenue. And so, you wouldn't see that as a net to our operating expense.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. That's helpful. And I guess, could you just update us on where you stand with the proposed Leidy Project that I think you guys highlighted the Leidy to Zone 6, I think at that point in time, you had a precedent transaction agreed to and were in negotiations with a couple of other producer counterparties there?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We're still making progress on that. Really nothing new to update from Analyst Day with the exception of the fact that we're just making progress there and hoping to conclude those negotiations soon. And the team is working on the applications that we will need to make for the FERC filings on that, but still making progress there and expect to have an exciting project to talk about in the near future.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And just last one for me here, in the past, you've noted the Hutchinson rail terminal, the loading capabilities there near the Conway assets. Just given the spread that we're seeing between Conway and Bellevue, does that asset have any value to you guys in terms of arbitrage capture?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We're seeing a lot of activity actually there. We're taking in lot of barrels from the Bakken, which is because of some impacts, probably short-term impacts, with takeaway capacity there, but we are seeing some new contracts that actually go out a little further than you would expect in regard to when those constraints are relieved. So, we're actually pleased with that. It's new business for us that we're capturing there and I think we'll continue to be able to do that.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
All right. Well, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning. Just wondering if you can comment on the key drivers and maybe the pace of growth to get to that five to six multiple for Discovery DJ and if you can maybe just talk about the potential to add processing capacity, I think you mentioned that there is a space or permitting for 1 Bcf.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Chad, if you'll take that.
Chad J. Zamarin - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Yeah, yeah, thanks for the question. First, I'll take that in reverse. As part of the acquisition, the Discovery system already owns sufficient property or has under lease sufficient property to support the over 1 Bcf a day of capacity that's expected to be required to service the existing dedications and from a growth perspective, it is a growth asset. There's a lot of activity already underway on the acreage that dedicated to the system. There's a really attractive portfolio of producers that make up that 260,000 acres of dedication. And we've modeled a fairly conservative expectation around ongoing activities. So, we're not expecting a tremendous amount of new activity to have to move into the area to support the growth that the Discovery system is poised for. So, we're really excited about the fact that we've got a very stable strong producer base that we fully expect to be moving a lot of volumes through the system over the next several years.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think it's also fair to say, given – I think you're trying to mathematically look at the ramp of the EBITDA, we didn't change our guidance in 2019. Clearly, the Four Corners assets have gone away and they historically produced an EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $85 million. We're not saying these assets will produce that level, but it's certainly close enough that -we aren't adjusting our guidance. So, there is a ramp through 2019 and into 2020 to that five to six times multiple.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then, I guess just on constitution, any thoughts in terms of potential timing for FERC rehearing or any updates on that front?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Lane, do you want to take that?
Terrance Lane Wilson - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. This is Lane Wilson. The FERC denied rehearing. And so, we're now clear to pursue that case in the D.C. Circuit. We're evaluating that right now, but we anticipate doing that at some point before the deadline.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Sharon.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, good morning, Alan.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning, Chris.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Couple questions for me. I was just curious if there was any update on either the timing or the components of the pending Transco rate case. I know, you've talked about August 31 as the filing date, at least – as the last date. But you had mentioned sort of the acceleration of some of the maintenance work into the first half of the year to coincide with the outage there. It sounded like that might have been a bigger amount of maintenance than you had initially planned, probably small in the margin, but just wondering if there's any changes we should anticipate with regard to that case?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Mike, do you want to take that?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I will. Hi, Chris. We permanently took advantage on those outages of getting the work done before ASR came online. There was a significant amount of activity that has been planned for quite some time with our in-line integrity work. This is primarily the smart pigging that we've been performing on the Transco system as well as the number of hydro tests that were going back in pressure testing, the older pipeline system components of Transco. So, that's – really what we were doing was taking advantage of the shoulder season here in the second quarter primarily. So, I would think you would see a different thing you've seen in the past in regard to our maintenance CapEx and our OpEx on the Transco system, where we really had to flip it this year and a lot of that was driven by ASR coming online later this year, where the Transco system is going to be operated much tighter than it has in the past. And so, we really wanted to get that work done before ASR came online.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And, Chris, I would just add to that. Obviously the maintenance capital, which also you saw was high during the quarter, obviously that does – that will affect the rate case through May obviously. And so, we fully intend to build or recover the maintenance capital portion of that through the rate case. So, I would say we're looking forward to getting that rate case out on the table and getting on with that. So, there has been a lot of changes obviously on the FERC side that have kept people hopping on a tax treatment there, but we feel very good and team has done a terrific job of keeping up with all those changes and is ready to follow through with the rate case here in August.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks for that. If I could pivot and I apologize if I missed it, but was curious, John, if you could let us know or if you had outlined what the cash tax expectations were in association with your Four Corners sale. You had put the sale proceeds number in the release, I just didn't know sort of on a post-tax basis what we should anticipate?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Obviously with the step-up from the roll-up, there will be not be a tax consequence. We'll be recreating a significant net operating loss through that. So, we don't anticipate cash outflow relative to the transaction.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. That's what I anticipated, I just wanted to confirm. And then finally, I guess dovetailing back on a question earlier from Jeremy about the appetite to enter new basins or make step-out investments that might not be entirely homegrown, particularly, Alan, as you've mentioned where you have sort of capability for downstream synergy. I think it's obvious to a lot of people as they look at the pro forma WPZ merged Williams, there's a lot of capacity to spend money. And so, just wondering – you had mentioned in prior calls, probably last year, about potential consolidation in the Northeast partnerships. There is at least one third-party entity in the Northeast that might be coming out in a more independent fashion. I'm just curious, the appetite you might have and then also geographic focus for that appetite.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would just tell you, I think this team is extremely disciplined. There are a lot of opportunities out there, but we recognize that our cost of capital relative to the private cost of capital right now is strangely enough. We're going through a period right now as an industry where it's very obvious to us that the private infrastructure fund money is much lower cost than the public dollars are. And particularly given the growth rate in our public equity that I would argue is not being reflected in our price, it really pushes us to recognize we've got a very high cost of capital outside of what we can – of the cost we can internally generate obviously. And so, we have to think about the other uses of that cash whether that is dividend or share buyback or whatever that might be, that's alternative use of that capital. So, yes, we have some great high-return investment opportunities as a result of our big footprint. And we will take advantage of those where we can and if we can use other people's money, that is lower cost than ours, to help capture some of that like we are doing on the DJ transaction, then we will certainly pursue that. But I would tell you we're going to remain very disciplined around capital allocation and look at it broader than just to our assets, but what it means ultimately to shareholder value.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Yeah. That's helpful. We've obviously noticed the same cost differential and I don't know if you have views on it, but perhaps perversely, it might be good rising rates, which I think historically were thought to be negative for midstream equity values as given that they had a dividend component might actually be a positive, but they drive off the cost with some of this private competition.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. (47:47)
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. No. That's a very interesting thought, Chris. I would just say, I think, right now it appears to us is there continues to be a lot of money trying to flow in to the infrastructure funds and private equity and I think, we see a lot of money, anxious to go to work and we think there's great places that are aligned with us that we can put that money to work and that's exactly what the team has been working on. And I think, again the transaction we just did is a great example of that.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Well, I appreciate all the added thoughts.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Derek Walker with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Derek Walker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Derek Walker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I have just a quick one on the merger. With the shareholder vote on August 9, how should we think about – assuming that there is a successful process there, should we expect that to close shortly thereafter or are there some other items we should be watching out for?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. You should expect it to close very shortly thereafter.
Derek Walker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Great. And then, Alan, you mentioned a new customer in the Utica. I just want to confirm is that related to the Chesapeake sale that was recently announced? And then, just want to also confirm, do those contracts roll with the new customer and have there been any discussions yet from that customer to perhaps renegotiate any of those terms?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
The answer is yes. Those contracts roll. And no, there hasn't been any discussion of restructuring those contracts. As far as I'm aware of, I don't think there is any expectation of that. I think the new customer knows. Obviously, we're always open to value-added transactions. And teams are always very aware of how value can be added. But right now, those contracts roll with the acreage and we think there's a lot of value. I would just tell you that to the degree there's capital available, obviously Chesapeake has been capital constrained. They've had a lot of great opportunities, including the Utica, but they've been capital constrained. If you think about the nature of those cost of service contracts, like we have on the Cardinal Gathering System there that services the rich Utica, if somebody can come in and apply the capital and get the volumes up, they naturally take the rate down. So, there's a way to fix and get a lower rate just through the investment of drilling capital. And so, that's kind of what I would expect to happen, given the availability of capital that, that team is going to have to apply to those assets. So, I would just say that's been a challenge for Chesapeake to take advantage of that opportunity just because they've been capital constrained. So, I think this is a good example of the market working and new capital being brought in against attractive return opportunities in terms of drilling on that acreage and that's fully what we expect to see and volumes will go up and rate eventually will go down be it a cost of service model associated with them.
Derek Walker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Thank you, Alan. Appreciate it.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys. Back on the DJ Basin, the downstream synergies that you talked about, what are those?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Becca, there are multiple synergies. I would just tell you we have some fairly complex contractual relationships downstream that I'm not going to get into that relate to our existing Rockies business, but we're not going to divulge the details of that, but I would just say there's quite a bit of opportunity in that. And as well obviously, we have a downstream infrastructure in terms of both OPPL and Conway fractionator as well. So, I would say there is multiple opportunities around that and a lot of it relates to our contracts that we have for our existing NGL volumes coming out of the Rockies.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you. And then, you talked earlier in your remarks about some constraints on NGL takeaway, maybe dampening a little bit EBITDA. Will you have the ability to flow volumes from these processing plants, especially when you're at the 200 million a day on OPPL since it's full?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Good question. First of all, I would say the NGL constraints are in multiple locations as you know, I think you're well aware that the two ways out of the Rockies are either on the MAPL System, which unfortunately flows through the Permian to ultimately get to the Bellevue. So, that path previously has been an open path, but with all the Permian congestion, the route south on MAPL out of the Rockies has been constrained. And so, the San Juan Basin asset, as an example of that, has been on allocation for quite some time. And so, when ethane margins become available, that's very difficult to capture, given the allocations going to South. And of course, the other option out of the Rockies is on Overland Pass and that has been on curtailment for, I don't know, maybe 13 or 14 months now. It has been on curtailment and has limited our ability to extract the ethane margin out of the region as well. So, that's the constraints that I spoke about earlier. In terms of things that are changing obviously on that, as I mentioned to Christine earlier, of course the Elk Creek pipeline that ONEOK is building along with the more near-term transformation of the White Cliffs System from crude to NGLs as well as another major expansion out of the DJ Basin in the way of the Front Range system, all are providing quite a bit of relief for that particular area that will provide relief for both the Bakken and the DJ and the Rockies ethane molecules. And so, that's where a lot of that uplift will come from as those systems all are expanded out there.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you. And then, last question is there have been more roadblocks put out in front of pipelines, a lot of surprising wins by the Sierra Club, the FERC now going to take into account or looking at taking into account the larger greenhouse gas emissions, how is that playing into how you're projecting your timing for new pipes – new gas pipes?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, I would say, for instance, on the NESE project even though that's been delayed from what we had in our capital in terms of our internal projections, we had a delay built into that. So, I would say, unfortunately, we're pretty accustomed to the delays and I think have done a good job of predicting them. I also though – and so, I really – I would tell you that I think that, that opposition has been very effective on a number of fronts. And I think we've got to continue to do things the right way as an industry. We've got to improve discipline across the industry on our construction practices and how we deal with the public. I would tell you, I think Williams is a leader on that. I think Atlantic Sunrise is a good example of that. But we have to build in quite a bit extra time in the Northeast. I think it's yet to be determined if that opposition spreads outside – dramatically outside of the Northeast. Obviously, the attack on Sabal Trails is an example of it spreading out of the Northeast. And so, we may see that expand other areas as well. And so, I think everybody better have eyes wide open when you think about greenfield or long-haul pipeline construction. I think everybody better be eyes wide open and they need to sharpen their skill sets both in terms of regulatory compliance and the engineering that goes into building these pipelines in a way that stays well within the bounds of the regulators and the communities that we serve. So, I would tell you we've been attuned to that issue for a long time just because a lot of our construction has been in the Northeast. But I have a feeling that, that is going to spread outside the Northeast. And I'm hopeful that the rest of the industry really starts to pay attention to those issues.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you. That's all I had.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks. Thank you, Becca.
Operator:
Thank you. We are out of time for questions. I'll turn the call back to the speakers for closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks everybody for joining us. Again a very predictable quarter from a financial metric standpoint, but a tremendous platform being built and a lot of work that went on this quarter that positions us for even greater growth here in the second half of 2018 and certainly in a big way into 2019 and beyond. So, really excited about the great work by the company during the quarter and we look forward to sharing that with you in the future.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc. John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams, Williams Partners' First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Christina. Good morning, and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn; and our CFO, John Chandler. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to generally accepted accounting principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so, with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Thank you, John, and welcome, everyone. I plan to keep the remarks pretty brief today due to our upcoming Analyst Day, where we're going to provide a much more in-depth review of the business. We're really looking forward to highlighting a lot of things that are going on. I would say here at a high level, the quarter was right on plan. We met expectations and we continue to remain on course and anticipate significant growth as we look toward the second half of this year and into 2019. Our strategy of focusing on connecting low cost natural gas supplies to the fastest growing demand centers allow the organization to leverage our solid foundation of advantaged positions to deliver another predictable quarter of broad-based growth. Once again showing year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA in each of our business segments, and while we now have a long string of adjusted EBITDA growth posted, we're most excited about what our intense focus on strategy will produce for us in the long term. This focus has allowed us to continue to identify, develop, and contract for new opportunities at a higher than industry average returns. And this is going to drive improvement in ROCE and shareholder value for many years to come. No one is as well positioned as Williams to capture the accelerating growth and demand for U.S. natural gas, and we look forward to updating investors about our significant achievements and the future plans at our Analyst Day event on May 17. So, for today's relatively brief call, we're going to hit just a few things here. First, a recap of our performance for the first quarter of 2018. I'll hit a few highlights that we saw in terms of strong execution in the quarter and that we're delivering across all of our business segments. I'll drill down a little bit into the business segments. And then finally, I'll continue to outline the key topics that will provide a deeper dive into our Analyst Day event. But for now, let's move to slide 2 and review our results for the first quarter. First of all, I'll say I'm pleased with the continued project execution and operational performance our teams delivered during the first quarter of 2018. And now looking to our GAAP results, the Williams Partners' net income was $360 million, reflecting a $274 million decrease from first quarter of 2017. The higher net income in 2017 was driven by a successful asset sale program that we executed in 2017. The largest driver of change was the absence of a $269 million gain that we booked on an asset sale in the first quarter of 2017 and the absence of margins from the Geismar olefins facility, which was sold in 2000 – sorry in July of 2017 and that was about – that was the bulk of the $59 million increase in commodity margins that you can see posted in our number, so $269 million on the gain and the largest portion of that $59 million of commodity margins. Moving on to non-GAAP measures, adjusted EBITDA was $1.12 billion, an increase of $5 million over the first quarter of 2017, that was up $53 million or 5% for the partnership's current business segments over the same period in 2017, and this was driven by a $58 million in increased revenues from our Transco expansion projects being placed into service in 2017 and another $11 million of higher fee-based revenues in the Northeast Gathering segment. This was partially offset by the $23 million decrease in proportional EBITDA from joint ventures and I'll hit on that a little more in a minute. And all three of our current business segments showed year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA. So, let me drill down into the drivers for each of these areas. First of all in Atlantic-Gulf, we saw a $13 million increase in adjusted EBITDA. The fee revenues on Transco were up 16% due in large part to the many fully contracted expansions placed into service during 2017. And we did see higher expenses compared to 1Q of 2017, but expenses actually decreased by about 10% from the sequential quarter in the Atlantic-Gulf segment. The larger offset came from Discovery, where the depletion of Exxon's Prolific Hadrian wells, drove the JV EBITDA down about $29 million in the quarter, and that was as we projected in last quarter's earnings call. And we'll see that taper off – that impact continue to taper off as those wells depleted down through the third quarter of last year. The completion of Atlantic Sunrise worth about $105 million per quarter of incremental revenue for Transco will be a significant contributor to the growth we anticipate in later half of this year for the Atlantic-Gulf segment. Now moving to the West, the West increased adjusted EBITDA by $17 million, and despite some large impact from revenue recognition in this comparison, the West continues to produce stable results from a broad range of customers and supply basins; in fact, gathered volumes were higher in 9 of the 10 franchises versus first quarter of 2017. And the one area that was lower was the Barnett, which showed about a 5% annual decline from same period last year. The West continued its strong record of reducing expenses as it showed another decrease in expenses from first quarter of 2017 and overcame the loss of EBITDA associated with a gathering asset sold in 2017, and from the new lower rates that we are recognizing on Northwest Pipeline. Looking forward, producers are starting to respond to higher oil and NGL prices, while gas gathering volumes were up 8% for the West, processing volumes increased 9% on a year-over-year basis and that's on an inlet – plant inlet gas basis, and we are seeing additional producer activity in liquids driven plays like the Wamsutter area and the Washakie Basin in Wyoming, the Eagle Ford, and now emerging is the Turner formation in the Powder River Basin, all these areas should drive volume growth for the balance of the year. Now turning to the Northeast Gathering segment, the Northeast showed the largest year-over-year improvement of $23 million or 10% in adjusted EBITDA. The improvement was driven primarily by 5% increase gathering volumes and increased gas processing business at our Ohio Valley Midstream complex in West Virginia, where we actually saw inlet gas processing volumes increased by 27% and NGL production was up 34% (00:08:40) over the first quarter of 2017. This was driven by both new drilling and new contracts being won by our team in Pittsburgh. While managing these volume increases, the team worked hard to keep cost flat on a year-over-year basis and actually reduced operating expenses from the fourth quarter 2017 to the first quarter of 2018. Results for the current year also benefited from an $11 million increase in proportional EBITDA of joint ventures, and this was led by the Bradford County JVs that we increased our ownership in during the first quarter of last year. We're seeing a significant ramp up in requests for system expansions as the Atlantic Sunrise and other key takeaway infrastructure serving in the Northeast begin to take shape. We expect significant growth in volumes and EBITDA from the segment by the fourth quarter of 2018. So, we really are seeing a lot of activity going on. Our teams are staying very busy responding to requests from producers for expansions on our systems right now. And now looking at DCF, distributable cash flow continued to increase by 5% versus the first quarter of 2017, allowing us to meet our guidance and distribution increase of 5% to 7% annually while maintaining a strong coverage ratio. Our coverage again this quarter was 1.33 at the partnership level, and of course, on an economic basis then is much higher at the WMB level. Now looking – turning to slide 3. We recapped some of our recent achievements here as we continue to build long-term predictable growth in the business. And as I've said earlier, we'll discuss our projects in greater detail at our May 17 Analyst Day event, but already this year, we've managed to set new delivery records on our Transco system. We also have started construction on the Gulf Connector, 475 million a day Gulf Coast LNG delivery expansion, so that's an expansion that goes from Louisiana into the – some of the large Texas LNG facilities, namely Freeport and Corpus Christi. And we placed Phase 2 of the Garden State Transco expansion into service and placed additional gathering expansions into service in both our Susquehanna Supply Hub and our Wamsutter Gathering System in Wyoming. Finally, just last month, we established new volume records on our Susquehanna Supply Hub. This was driven by the expansion projects that we placed into service in that area and Northeast volumes continue to increase as planned. West volumes increased in 9 of the 10 franchises, as we continue to see growth in many of the areas of that segment. We also filed our FERC application for a fully-contracted Southeastern Trail expansion project that'll serve growing demand in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern markets. And again, another one of these projects which were unique on our system that is demand-driven projects and the contracting for that is being driven by markets, not by producer push. On the 1.7 Bcf a day Atlantic Sunrise project, 90% of the pipe stringing and welding for the pipeline construction portion of the project has now been completed. Hydrostatic testing has commenced on certain segments of the greenfield pipeline and we have begun making a very large number of tie-ins along the line. Despite an extremely wet and extended winter, we continue to target mid-2018 for placing the project into service, and I will tell you that is thanks to some very dedicated and hardworking employees and some terrific planning by our team. So, really have been very difficult conditions up there, but the team has continued to overcome that and is making great progress on putting that project in service. All of the items I've highlighted here reinforce our confidence that we'll see good operational performance and increasing growth in the second half of this year, which sets us up for an even stronger 2019. Now moving on to slide 4, as I mentioned at the beginning of the call, I look forward to visiting with many of you at our Analyst Day event on May 17 in New York. We will certainly highlight our natural gas strategy and how our leading positions uniquely enable us to connect low cost supplies to the robust demand for natural gas that we are now beginning to realize on our systems. We will also look at our extensive list of attractive projects spanning our operating areas that are currently in execution or under development and these give us great transparency towards predictable growth over the – not just in the short term, but very much in the long term. So, we're really excited to see the way our pipeline for growth is continuing to fill in and we'll highlight that. We'll also address the recent FERC action on regulated pipelines held by MLPs, and finally many elements are coming together which provide great transparency to our 2019 growth, and we look forward to highlighting the key drivers of the significant ramp up that is now before us. So, again, I'm very pleased with the operational performance and project execution of our teams and the year-over-year growth in our continuing business segments reflects the very solid quarter of results that Williams and Williams Partners delivered. So, operator, let's take the first question, please.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our first question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Appreciate that you might want to wait for the Analyst Day on this, but I just wanted to touch base on the FERC and see if there's anything additional that you could share with regards the recent decision, and if collapsing the structure could mitigate some of the impact there, and if so, would you be able to quantify that in any sense?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would just say Jeremy, just like we've said previously, we're very confident in our ability to manage that through various structures. And so, we don't expect any impact to our guidance. So, really nothing new on that to offer you other than we are very confident in the various structures that we have available to us to manage that.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got you. Thanks for that. And I think you touched on a bit on in your comments, but the West stepped down 4Q 2017 into 1Q 2018. I was wondering if you might be able to decompose a bit more as far as some of the drivers there. Appreciate there was the rate case with Northwest Pipe, but anything else you can kind of share there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
(00:16:13).
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, I would say that probably the biggest impact in the West was that Northwest Pipeline rate case, where we had a settlement with our customers and that did take the revenue down. So, I'd say that's probably our biggest impact in the West there. And on gathering volumes, keep in mind although sequentially we were down, we were very strong in Q1 2017 to Q1 2018. And I would just say on that we had very strong performance in Q4, primarily in the Haynesville, and naturally that's a tough comparison coming off the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter when we had such strong results at the end of last year. And just in some of our gathering area, surprisingly we didn't have any weather impacts in Wyoming in our traditional cold weather areas, but we did have some Eagle Ford and Haynesville winter impacts in Q1 that hurt our volumes a little bit, but it really wasn't too bad this winter.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And Jeremy, one other thing I'd add to that point too in the West, we talked on our last – this is John Chandler, we talked on our last earnings call about the new revenue recognition standards, and in the West particularly that's where we've had a number of previously settled MVCs and other things where we received prepayments. And under the new revenue recognition standards, we're extending the amortization that over a longer period of time. So, there was just a pure book step down. It wasn't really a cash step down between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, probably to the tune of $20 million to $30 million between those period. So, there was a big step down related to non-cash revenue recognition items.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. That's really helpful. Thanks. And then, just one last one if I could, in the Northeast, could you provide a bit more color, I guess, as far as where you see gathering volumes shaping up over the balance of the year? Any more color that you can share there as far as producer activity behind your systems?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. This is Michael Dunn. I'll tell you in a couple of our areas would start in Ohio Valley Area, the Ohio River area. We're seeing a lot of growth there on the West side of the system bringing in volumes from Southwestern, EQT, and likely Chevron this year. A lot of activity in regard to our processing facilities there, Fort Beeler, we're at capacity on that, that's between 550 million and 600 million of processing capabilities there and Fort Beeler's full. And we're expanding Oak Grove. If you recall Oak Grove has one Train there. And right now, we're putting Train 2 in, that will go in service next year, and likely Train 3 following shortly after that. So, we're seeing a lot of activity on that side of the system. Shifting more to the Northeast Pennsylvania area, we will be seeing a lot more activity coming from the Susquehanna Supply Hub as well with Cabot ramping up to fill their volumes on Atlantic Sunrise. Some of that volume will be a shift from where they're delivering gas today on other interstate pipelines, but they'll also be bringing on incremental production there. They had no net Marcellus wells come online in Q1. But right now, they're anticipating 20 net Marcellus wells in Q2 and about 60 in the second half of 2018. And all of that volume comes on our Northeast Gathering system. So, that definitely will be ramping up to fill Atlantic Sunrise. And they've stated publicly that they intend to fill that volume nearly from day one as soon as we're able to bring the project online.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's great. Good to see a continued growth in the Marcellus even despite what we hear around the Permian, so that's encouraging. Thank you for that color.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
So, I wanted to start on the FERC actions that took place. Hypothetically, in the event you guys do a transaction, where there's a step up in basis in the assets. Would that eliminate or materially reduce your accumulated deferred income tax balance for your pipes? Just trying to get a sense of the impact transaction like that would have on your rate base calculation for your FERC assets.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. No, we don't think it would eliminate that now.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Now just to be clear though at the same time, if you think about kind of the two steps to our accumulated deferred income tax, there's of course the regulatory liability (00:20:53) the year-end relative to going from 35% to 21%. That would still be subject to possibly providing great relief back to the shippers, but that was part of our guidance when we talked last quarter that we believe we could still file for a rate increase even with that in mind on Transco. As it relates to the March 15 filing, we'll still be a corporate tax payer and we believe that that the deferred tax liability will still be out there and still be payable by the company. So, we don't feel like that has any rate implications. And at the same time, I don't believe we will be eliminated either.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
What do you expect – well, if you, I guess, keep it in the – keep the pipeline in the MLP, what do you think – and you have to take it from a 21% to 0%, are you going to have to book more into the regulatory liability?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think that would be the outcome if that were the – if at the end of the day it was – it were in the MLP, you'd have an additional regulatory liability, yes.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And I would also say though that's subject to the notice of inquiry. It's not completely clear yet how the FERC intends to handle that. So, various regulated entities are responding to that NOI. So, I think it's still subject to that.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
But to the extent that the FERC follows kind of the same approach that is there on the 35% to 21% move, then yeah, you could expect that to happen.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then earlier this year, it was out that Caiman was marketing their interest in Blue Racer. And you guys seem to indicate that buying out their stake wasn't of interest, but getting control was maybe to gain some operational synergies. How do you think about this now that Dominion is out there potentially selling their ownership and that one party could collectively buy both their stakes, which I think out up to over 70%?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Well, Christine, we don't get into the details of that, but we do have rights related to that type of transaction, particularly as it relates to the Caiman interest. And so, we're not to consider – nothing has really changed in that regard just because of our rights indicates the sale or transfer of interest there.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then, lastly, can you give us some more color on the denial for the water permit for the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project? What the next steps are and what that does to the potential in-service date?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Christine, I can do that. This is Michael Dunn. During the past year, we have been working very closely with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to satisfy the conditions necessary for issuance of that Water Quality Certification. They did inform us prior to the denial that they needed additional time to complete their review. There is a statutory period, and you probably recall this one-year period that if they don't act, there could be a waiver be deemed to occur. And so, in order for them to allow more time for their review, they did deny that permit, but we certainly have every right and every intention to re-file that permit, and the whole support of our customer National Grid. Now, assuming we still get the Water Quality Certification and all data permits and FERC approvals in the same timeframe, it really wouldn't have any impact on the schedule. We do intend to re-file that in the next several weeks, and assuming that New York continues its review, which we think that it will, we will be able to continue on with the project schedule. It's a critical project for New York City National Grid, certainly needs it in order to continue converting the fuel oil that's burned there into natural gas units. And right now, our project would displace about 3 million gallons of heating oil every year and that would reduce CO2 emissions by up to 2.4 million tons per year. So, we certainly think it's a much needed project and National Grid certainly needs it to continue their conversion activities there in the Northeast.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thank you for the color.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. So, it looks like there was some solid growth on the volume front for the Northeast equity investments, but the proportional EBITDA lagged a bit. So, any color on the primary drivers there, whether it was maybe Blue Racer or Utica East or just what caused that variance of it?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Most of the volume growth there was on the Bradford JV, but you are right, the Cardinal and UEO interest, they were declined on the rich gas, the Utica volumes there. And so, that had impact on that joint venture. So, primarily it was Bradford increases, offset by some Utica Rich decline.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So, just the lower-margin dry gas there so a bit of a makeshift?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's exactly right.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
All right. Okay. And I just wanted to follow up on Jeremy's question on the West.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. But just to be clear there – Colton, sorry – just to be clear that we did see EBITDA increases on Bradford, but – so that – we had lower rates there, but you're right that Utica Rich we have higher margin on and that is where we saw a lower EBITDA.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Appreciate that. And then, to follow-up on Jeremy's question on the West, if you could just give a little bit more detail there. I mean, I think you mentioned the weather impacts in the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, anyway to quantify that? I mean, it sounds like it was fairly marginal or have you also seen any sort of shift in activity, maybe from producers actually transitioning rigs away from the Haynesville to liquids-rich basins, whether that be Niobrara or your Powder River assets? So, any comments there would be helpful.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I'd say the winter impacts there were very minimal. I just mentioned them because it's unusual to have those winter impacts in those areas for us. And I would just say the Haynesville ramp up was a very significant last year for us, if you recall us talking about that last quarter. And the rig activity there is still there. I think just we talked about other wells that they brought online just this week in the Haynesville, which is pretty significant lateral length there, so we would expect pretty significant production on an initial production rate from that well. So, we're still seeing activity there and we expect them to have significant activity in the Eagle Ford as they talked about on their call yesterday as well. But there's also a lot of activity occurring in the Powder River Basin with a lot of producers up there seeing some interest in that area and we're fairly well-positioned with our partnership there with Crestwood to take advantage of that as those opportunities arise.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, I would just add to that in Eagle Ford, we also had an outage or planned turnaround at our Dilly (28:17) gas treating facility, sour gas treating facility there. And I think that was about a week of outage there. So, that was – that is an unusual event. It was planned, but it didn't impact the quarter. And I think on the Haynesville, as we've mentioned earlier, any time you have these big new wells coming on like we saw a lot of in 2017, you've got a big decline to work off in the near term. So, the fresher the production, the more immediate decline. There is adequate activity out there and we are seeing that pick back up here as we get through the winter. So, you always have kind of a little bit of a lull during the winter. And so, at the end of the fourth quarter, of course the first part of the first quarter and so, we'll see some of that pick back up. But we are definitely seeing more rigs move over to the oil and rich gas areas right now. No doubt about that.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. I guess just a last one. So, you hinted at some updates to the CapEx budget at the Analyst Day. So, I understand if you'd prefer to hold out most of the details. But just any indications as to whether those are primarily adjustments to the scope of existing projects or whether we should expect to see some additions to the backlog?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. It is a lot of new projects I would tell you. And it's kind of just a lot of it's more of the same, if you will, in terms of incremental demand for services in the Northeast and some new opportunities along the Transco system that are driving that.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Just coming back to the FERC items. I know you're going to touch this on the Analyst Day, but I think on your last earnings call, you said you wouldn't see downside into the rate case from going to a 21% rate on the income tax allowance. So, if you keep Transco in the MLP and you go to a zero tax allowance, do you have a refreshed view on the potential for whether that would be a reduced tariff or what kind of impact that would be using a zero tax allowance?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would just say we have plenty of structures to use and we don't intend to contemplate that path. So, there's plenty of other structures that we would employ, and so I do not expect us to follow rate case without the tax allowance in it.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. That makes sense. And so then, if we do, and I'm sorry for the hypothetical, but if we do stipulate that one of the ways to do that is to roll up WPZ into WMB. I guess, have you previewed what that might look like with the rating agencies? Have they given you any sense of what you would need to be at from a leverage perspective to be investment grade at a consolidated entity?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Not really on that front, but I would tell you this, I've had an opportunity to talk to rating agency, obviously having been new here at Williams – this is John Chandler again. Having been new here at Williams and now eight months in, I've had an opportunity to talk to the rating agencies just to kind of reaffirm my view of what is BBB, Baa2 and I think it's consistent with what I felt it is, somewhere inside 4.75 times and ultimately down to 4.5 times. So, I think as a long-term view on a consolidated basis, we desire to be BBB flat, Baa2. But it's certainly clear in my mind today too that we may not be totally at that level, but we're certainly investment grade on a consolidated basis. We're certainly at Baa3, BBB flat with a lot of capacity there.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And John, just to be clear, those numbers you're quoting, you tended to I think lift the numbers versus the reported EBITDA by about a quarter of a turn. Is that fair?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's right and those are – the numbers I'm referring to are rating agency adjusted.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. Perfect. Yeah. Understood. And then, last one from me just on Atlantic Sunrise, great to see the progress there. Sort of what's left – what are the key items left, milestones that you need to hit to hit that sort of mid-2018 in-service date that you've discussed?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Right now, as Alan said, we had a tough winter up there. Anybody that's residing in the Northeast knows how tough it was, and a lot of snow and rain on the right of way, but the contractors have done a great job progressing through the winter. And as Alan indicated, we're looking at a mid-2018 in-service. Compressor stations are coming along and looking very good from a schedule standpoint as well as the pipeline right of way. We've got four of the six horizontal directional drills completed. The other two, we should have pull-back here in the next two weeks on those and we are starting hydro tests. So, it's really weather-dependent now. We're targeting an in-service date, and we're plus or minus weeks on either side of that date right now and it's really all driven by getting some good weather in the Northeast, and we'll make some really good progress as soon as the weather breaks up there for us.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
That's perfect. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Darren Horowitz with Raymond James.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey guys. Good morning. Just a couple quick housekeeping questions for me. The first, looking at the sequential change in O&M, it was down nominally and you guys mentioned the asset sales, but it looked like it decreased about 100 basis points, so thinking about it on a percent of total segment revenues, it was around 16%. Is that the right way to think about things as we progress through this year?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Sorry, Darren. Could you repeat that? We didn't catch the first part of that question, sorry about that.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
No problem. Yeah. I was just referencing Alan that that O&M obviously is down nominally sequentially, but as a percent of total segment revenues, it looked like it dropped about 100 basis points from 17% in the fourth quarter to 16% now. And I'm just wondering from an O&M perspective if that's the right platform when we think about margin for the duration of this year?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think we're making a really good progress as we gain scale on these projects. We're making good – we track what we call an O&M margin ratio, which is a similar measure to what you're talking about and we're tracking very closely and actually drive performance around that for the teams, and we do expect to continue to improve that from where we are today. I think if you look at it on a quarter-to-quarter basis, sometimes it can move around on you, but on an annual average basis, we are continuing to drive that ratio better and we would expect as our scale gets larger, a lot of our costs obviously in these operating areas like the Northeast are somewhat fixed, and so as we drive volume and revenues against that we are able to increase that, and similarly, in the West as well we have that issue. I would say the West is very mature in terms of its ability to drive costs down and that team even without the benefit of big volume increases, that team has been continuing to drive our unit cost down in that area. So, I would expect us to continue to improve on that number, but you may not see it from quarter-to-quarter as much you will see it on an annual average basis.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Okay. And then my follow-up, just thinking about the Northeast G&P EBITDA ramp for the back half of this year, you know recognizing the contribution of what Susquehanna and Bradford can lead to that. How do you think about kind of the cadence sort of the rate of change with regard to gathered volumes in plant – in light gas volumes versus just how much incremental contribution from EBITDA there is going to be for Bradford and Susquehanna as they build?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think Susquehanna is going to be somewhat stair stepped and be a little more driven. There is quite a bit of capability to boost volumes out there as we saw this winter when we saw some good pricing hit locally in those demand areas. We saw some volumes pick up pretty rapidly. Part of that was because we had expanded the system on what we called our Genesis expansion out there. But I think the thing that was impressive from my vantage point was the ability for the producer to respond when the pricing was there. So, we're going to see that occur as Atlantic Sunrise comes on. And we're certainly seeing all the activity in place today to keep up with that. Cabot has done a great job of managing the business and as well managing their markets. They've got a couple of big gas-fired power projects that are coming on that they've contracted to serve as well. So – and those projects are doing very well. So, I think in the Northeast, we're going to see response to both Atlantic Sunrise and those gas-fired power generation facilities coming online. And down in the OVM (00:38:04) area, we are just really impressed with the degree of activity going on, on the rich gas there and the team has done a really nice job of winning new business there from some – from business that were elsewhere. And so the team has really done a great job of continuing to grow volumes on that. As Michael mentioned, we're going to be up against our capacity limits there pretty quickly, but we've got about another 150 million a day to fill up and then we'll have TXP-2 that were in the process of constructing right now coming online and then TXP-3, which is another 200 million a day would follow behind that. So, don't really see much slowing down the ORM – or sorry the Ohio Valley Midstream area, but that's going to be a little smoother, if you will, just because we're seeing adequate gas takeaway capacity out of the area right now. And now it's just a matter of the drilling continue to fill up our processing, but in the Northeast, I think we see a little more stepwise function that'll be late in the 2018 period for seeing those volumes come though.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thanks, Alan. I appreciate it.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Eric Genco with Citi.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning. Just wondering, can you remind me real quick what is the test period again on the Transco rate case? When did that go through?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Right now we plan to file our rate case at the end of August and that test period goes through March 1st, assuming that we file there.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And I wanted to ask – again... (00:39:52)
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
March 1, 2019. Okay. And I realize this is kind of again hypothetical, but in thinking through sort of rating agencies and how some of the stuff goes, if you were to look through and you were to choose sort of a roll-up option hypothetically, there's still a process from when that gets announced to when that closes and it feels like Atlantic Sunrise is kind of around the corner at this point in terms of being online. So, we heard at one point that the rating agencies were kind of eyeing Atlantic Sunrise and thinking about that in terms of sort of where you fall in the investment grade spectrum. Is that something where if you announce something and then eventually it closes, but Atlantic Sunrise kind of comes on in between, is that something you think you could get credit for? What's the process for something like that like? I apologize for being theoretical.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think given the fact – this is John Chandler again. I think given the fact that the revenue stream is highly predictable, because it's firm capacity, when that project is in service, I do believe we'll be given credit, at least somewhat of a pro forma full credit for Atlantic Sunrise.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then maybe I'll just ask one sort of kind of philosophical question and then a lot has been made about sort of the Northeast Gas and associated gas in the Permian and sort of how that goes, but I wanted to sort of ask philosophically, if you were to think through a scenario where you get through the next couple of years where LNG is kind of coming on and then there's a bit of a wall in sort of demand growth. How do you see the tradeoffs between sort of a lower for longer price situation, which could obviously affect some of your customers. But being that you're levered to demand, low prices tend to spur demand. So, I'm just trying to think about how you think about looking beyond the next decade and what that holds for Williams philosophically?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great question. I would just tell you something we give a lot of thought to and study quite a bit. And I actually think that the Permian supply is actually helping us in that there is much more confidence in low prices for the longer, which is spurring big capital investment – continue big investment in capital. And so, I think we're going to continue to see LNG expansion on the backs of that, where in before I think people, there was some doubt about it. I don't think there is any doubt about the U.S.'s ability to produce a low-cost gas supplies for a very long period of time. And so we are seeing tremendous amount of activity and we've got two methanol plants in Louisiana, big methanol plants that we're serving that are great – that we're building – have contracted now to serve I should say. So, we're seeing big capital go in trying to take advantage of low-cost gas. And I just think the Permian is just additive to that story frankly. In terms of the Marcellus versus the Permian, even in the Bernstein report, which is probably the most negative towards the Marcellus has impacted by the Permian, even there you have a very large, like a 50% increase in volumes, and so I would say if that's the downside case for the Marcellus, that's pretty rosy from my perspective to get that kind of increase coming out of the Marcellus, and we certainly are starting to see signs of that. But bottom line is I think the Permian is really helping in terms of the big capital dollars that have to go into sustained demand and we're certainly seeing signs of that.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thank you very much. I appreciate your time.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
The New York Northeast Supply Enhancement regulatory playbook sounds a little familiar when it comes to what you've been through with Constitution. Can you opine on from a broader industry perspective, whether the promise of an improving regulatory environment for citing new projects is actually coming through or we're not really seeing any traction on the ground there?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Craig, this is Michael Dunn. I would say there are challenging locations for us to permit projects, but it still doesn't negate the need for this project specifically. This is a very important project for New York and the Northeast. And I will just tell you from what we saw over the winter and all of the Northeast that two week cold spell that was in New England between just after Christmas through the New Year, they burned more fuel oil in those two weeks than they did in all of 2016 and had to import Russian LNG into Boston. And I will tell you that somewhat ridiculous whenever you have the cheapest gas in the world, just a few hundred miles away, they can get to those markets. And so, we think there is really a need up there. The New York City Housing Authority this winter had some really difficult times, keeping their buildings heated and with hot water serviced just because of the failing equipment there on the boilers and the fuel oil systems. And they really need to be upgraded and they need to be upgraded with natural gas to reduce emissions and reduce costs for the citizens in those areas. So, it is a challenge to permit projects. There's no doubt about that, but we're going to be out there and with our customers, challenging those opportunities and making sure that we get a real definitive purpose and need out there into the public hands and get our projects permitted.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, I would just add to that Craig. It certainly is the same certificate – the 401 certificate, the same one that got denied in the case of Constitution. It also got denied on Earth Day. And so, that has a lot of similar ring to it. As Michael points out, this one really is important for New York City, and we really are starting to get some strong political support from folks that are actually locally affected by not having access to natural gas. And we certainly think that that's going to be paid attention to. I'd probably no need to remind a lot of folks on this call, but Governor Cuomo is certainly trying to stay far to the left right now, and we get that politically, and we think the timing is an important factor here in terms of the approval and the State's actions on this project. So, I think there's a lot of very strong positives for New York City in terms of dramatic reductions in their emissions by getting off of fuel oil. Almost all of this gas is going to take out fuel oil. And so, there's actually a very large emissions benefit from this project and it's getting lower cost fuels in to folks. So, we think ultimately, the politics will turn to our favor on this and we've been working closely with the State and again feel like there's very much an issue of timing regarding the denial on this that's more related to the governor's election and particularly in the primary. So, the feeling does go very familiar on one hand. On the other hand, we think we have some really strong politics that'll work for us eventually on this project.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Sounds good. Obviously logic doesn't work in some political situations, but they hopefully will listen to constituents.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
One other quick question. We've talked a lot about Transco and the March FERC order and tariff implications. Is the Northwest Pipeline rate settlement because of the settlement immune to that order or can it be dragged in, in the next year or two?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, I think the FERC NOPR suggested that companies will be required to come in and explain how they're going to address the NOPR of course. We would address it that it was addressed specifically in our tariff and it does provide for the 35% to 21% tax rate reduction. And by the time we get to that point of actually doing that, we expect also be able to say that Northwest Pipe is part of a corporate tax paying entity depending on whatever structure we put in place to make that happen. So, we do believe potentially that there would be some communication with the FERC, but we don't think we have to follow the traditional process that others are going through since we have a settled rate case that specifically addressed this.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And Craig, our current rate that we're charging as reflected this quarter already has that 35% to 21% step down. Even though we're actually receiving a higher cash rate, we're only recognizing the rate that would be appropriate to the 21%.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. I appreciate that clarification.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of quick questions. First on the future of operations in the Northeast type of question. About four or five years ago when NGL evacuation was an issue in the Northeast, producers tended to move rigs over to the bigger dry gas wells. This year, at some point, Mariner East 2 is expected to come into service. Are you hearing at all from any of your producer customers about an interest in shifting the rigs back to the more liquid-rich wells, which would also have lower gas output? Just kind of curious what you're hearing from producers.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I would say there is a move that goes back and forth that's depending on a lot of things, and certainly right now, there is a lot of focus on the rich gas right now, because propane prices have been high. Obviously, the spread between oil and gas is continuing to drive rigs towards the richer gas right now. And so, I think we're seeing – that's interesting you know as well and is somewhat coincidental, but the southwest part of the play, so West Virginia and Southwest Pennsylvania and Ohio has the benefits of increased takeaway projects that have come online. So they also – you're starting to see a pretty big spread between TETCO M-2 and Dominion South, which serves that area versus the Tennessee pricing and the Transco-Leidy pricing, which serves the Northeast part of the play. And so, not only do you have right now better gas pricing in the southwest part of the play, you obviously have the benefit of strong rich gas. So, I would say there has been a leaning towards rigs being deployed in the southwest part of the play right now for those two reasons. I would say as Atlantic Sunrise opens up and really starts to provide great access to real markets, not just sending gas into a cul-de-sac, but real new markets, we're going to see some increased activity in the northeast part of the play as well.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And two follow-ups, just some of the answers you gave to previous questions. First, with Christine's questioning about the FERC, would you be able to confirm if your (00:52:17) would be wiped out if you did a roll up of WMB to WPZ as we've seen with some of the other ones that have happened?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I mean, we're continuing to look at that. I think the one thing that still leaves a little bit of a question mark in our mind is the fact that today obviously WPZ has owned 74% by corporate tax payer. And so, I think in those other transactions – I mean we are looking specifically at that to see what happens in that scenario. And we're not clear at this point whether or not the material ownership by Williams of WPZ impacts that calculation at all. So, there's other scenarios that I think Christine was talking about. I'm not sure what the level of ownership was by a corporate paying parent versus the public, and so, I think the notion is that to buy-in or roll-up, there is a payment of all taxes due by the unitholders, and I think we're just processing through what that means relative to our specific scenario where 74% of the partnerships owned by a corporation.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And one follow-up and I think you used the word corporate tax paying entity in your response to Craig's question, and in some of the other responses, you have mentioned the word structures, which is plural, I mean the obvious one to us is rolling up WPZ, are there any other structures that you're looking at that you can share with us, and will you pick the direction that you're going to take by the Analyst Day or will that really come before you file the rate case?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'll take that. There certainly are many other structures to look at, and you've heard the Street talk about those. I don't think we're going to get into a long description of all those various structures, but there is multiple structures that are available in that regard. And primarily the difference and why they are so many available to us is what John pointed out, which is that at the Williams' level, we are already a tax payer at the Williams' level and therefore there's a lot of structures available in that regard. So, that's first part of the question. The second part of the question is, I'm not going to answer. So, we're not going to pin ourselves down as to when exactly we're going to answer this question at this point.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
No. Fair enough. I figured I had to try. Just one last follow-up. The argument about WMB owning 74% of WPZ's units and WMB being a corporate tax payer, I mean, how does that argument differ from the fact that they're no longer allowing the ITA when it was originally constructed as the unitholders are ultimately tax payers? I mean, the common man or person out there does pay taxes. How does – what's the distinction in the argument that WMB is a corporate tax payer versus an individual being paying personal income taxes as well also?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think the distinction – I mean specifically to the aided and maybe we're twisting it a bit, but I think the distinction here is if there were a roll-up transaction, there would not be a taxable event as it relates to WMB's ownership of WPZ. And so, the notion that all taxes have been paid including deferred taxes. I think it's one that you'd have to analyze and as it relates to the 74% ownership we have in WPZ. Does that make sense?
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah. That makes perfect sense. All right. Thank you very much, guys. I appreciate the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys. Just back to that same issue. There's been a lot of comments filed on the NOPR and a lot of them asked for the FERC to take into consideration before they made that final order, the comments on deferred income taxes and the NOI. Do you feel like you need to have a final order out of the FERC before you can elect a structure or decide what you're going to do in terms of a simplification?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I don't think we would want to wait around for that final order. So again not saying exactly what the timing is, but I don't want to sit around and wait for that. I think the ability to completely turn that over is not real high. So...
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Super. That's all I had. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Armstrong, I'd like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Great. Well, thank you all. I would just say a great quarter for us, just continuing to be very predictable I would suggest and execution IR teams is tremendous in phase of some pretty tough environment, the team's continue to execute very well. So really excited the way things are going on that front and really excited about our Analyst Day and rolling out a lot of exciting projects that are going to drive us into the long term as well. So, thanks for your questions today and look forward to seeing you at Analyst Day.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc. John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams and Williams Partners Fourth Quarter 2017 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including a slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn; and our CFO, John Chandler. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks, and you should review it. Also, included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. And these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so, with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, John. First of all, I'll just say these are going to be a little longer comments than usual, just because there are a lot of issues that we want to discuss this morning, so I'm going to jump right in. I'm going to begin by saying how pleased I am with the organization's strong execution in 2017. A lot of notable achievements. We safely, and in timely manner, delivered on Transco's Big 5 projects, which was Gulf Trace, Hillabee Phase 1, Dalton, New York Bay, and the Virginia Southside II. And we exceed the midpoint of our guidance range for adjusted EBITDA, and actually exceeded the top end of the range for distributable cash flow and cash coverage ratios. And finally, we were able to bring CapEx spending in slightly below the midpoint of the range. Our teams achieved these impressive results, which include improvement in year-over-year adjusted EBITDA for both the fourth quarter and the full-year 2017 despite the impact of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Nate, and while executing crisply on $2.3 billion in asset sales. And if you go back to September 2016, it's actually $3.3 billion in asset sales. As you'll recall, a strong foundation was laid with the financial repositioning we executed in January of 2017, which positioned the company to fund our attractive slate of fully contracted, large-scale expansion projects without the need to access public equity markets for projects included in our current forecast. And now, we're providing further insight into 2018 where we look forward to a full-year revenue contribution from our Big 5, as well as contributions from our Atlantic Sunrise project, when it is placed online later this year, along with the associated growth in the Northeast gathering volumes upstream of that. We are as excited as ever about our opportunities across the asset base, which we see driving continued growth for 2019 and beyond. And so, for today's relatively long call, we're going to hit a recap of our performance for fourth quarter and full-year 2017; we're going to hit the 2018 financial guidance; and we're going to take a brief look at the types of opportunities we see driving our growth into 2019 and beyond. And just to remind you, we are planning an Analyst Day event in May, where we'll dive deeper into our growth drivers for the future. But, for now, let's move on to slide 2 and review the fourth quarter. So, according to our GAAP results, which included some large onetime events related to the recent federal income tax reform, Williams' C-Corp level reported fourth quarter net income of more than $1.6 billion, a $1.7 billion improvement from fourth quarter 2016. This large improvement was driven primarily by the re-measurement of Williams' deferred tax liabilities to reflect anticipated lower future tax payments. And this resulted in a $1.9 billion gain at the GAAP level. But it's not quite that simple when it comes to the impact of Tax Reform, as we also had to take a $713 million non-cash charge at WPZ related to Tax Reform for Transco and Northwest Pipeline. I'll go further into the Tax Reform impact on the regulated pipelines a bit later. But for now, I'll just say that, generally speaking, we had to book an estimated regulatory liability of $713 million for possible future impacts on our cost-of-service rates, resulting from this Tax Reform bill. Even though this is a big number, it's likely to only affect our future actual cost-of-service rate case calculations by relatively small annual amounts, as it gets spread over a period that could be 20 years or more and is one of the many variables that impacts the ultimate rates that we charge for our max rate tariff service. To that point, given higher integrity expenses and maintenance capital expenses at Transco, we still expect to file a rate increase on our cost-of-service rates, even after taking into account the effect of this change in the tax liability. So let's move to the performance of the business in the fourth quarter, where WPZ's adjusted EBITDA was up $84 million, or 8% when you exclude the NGL/Petchem businesses that we've sold. This increase was driven mostly by our more than $100 million increase in fee-based revenues. These came primarily in the Atlantic-Gulf and our West segments. And with that, let's move on to slide 3 to look at the full year of 2017. So even for the full year, those large fourth quarter Tax Reform related items played a key role for the GAAP results. But there were a few other drivers, including about $1.3 billion in gains we had on the Geismar and Permian JV sales. And then looking at adjusted EBITDA, WPZ was up over $200 million or about 5% versus 2016 when you exclude the former NGL/Petchem businesses that we sold. You can see in the graph where all three of the segments show improvement for the full year. Atlantic-Gulf saw increased adjusted EBITDA driven by the Transco expansion projects and increased volumes in the Eastern Gulf, partially offset by higher O&M expenses, as we continue to do quite a bit of asset integrity work and hydro testing on the main lines along the Transco system. For the full year of 2017, results for the West benefited from lower cost. Growth in basins like the Haynesville and higher commodity margins, that were partially offset by the loss of results from the sell and trade of our DBJV trade with Western Gas and Anadarko. And the Northeast realized added benefits from the growth in the Bradford area with increased ownership from the various Bradford County systems that came with that trade I just mentioned. Positive results on our Susquehanna and Ohio River systems were offset by lower volumes in the rich Utica and our non-operated interest in the UEOM joint venture. So up there in the rich Utica area, we continue to see declines in that area. And as you'll recall, we own both a rich gas gathering system and then we own a 62% interest in a non-operated interest in UEOM up there. In the Northeast, we've consistently spoken of 2017 and 2018 as transitional years for Northeast volumes. During 2017, we started to see step changes in takeaway capacity in the Southwest part of the play that are beginning to unlock the growth potential of these unmatched natural gas reserves. And of course, we've also seen a lift in NGL prices in that area that's really spurred a lot of drilling in the Southwestern part, in the rich part of the Marcellus play. Moving on here to slide 4. Here, we've recapped some of our recent achievements as we continue to build long-term sustainable growth in the business. It certainly was an impressive quarter and full year for the Transco team. The Big 5 projects that we've referenced many times added approximately 25% pipeline capacity to Transco, which is saying something given the size of Transco to start with. The final two of the Big 5 projects, New York Bay and Virginia Southside, were placed into service as planned in the fourth quarter. Also in the fourth quarter, our West team saw higher volumes in 8 of the 10 gathering franchises, led by continued growth in the Haynesville. In the Northeast, our exit rate gathering volumes were up 600 million a day or 9% over 2016, as the debottlenecking of the Northeast is just getting started. And a portion of this volume growth is contributing to higher utilization of our Ohio Valley midstream processing capacity, where we now expect to expand that facility by an additional 400 million a day supported by strong customer volume commitments and driven by this continued rich Marcellus drilling activity. We've already seen the impact of the five major projects this year, which added over 2.8 Bcf a day of new capacity. And this was really on – these projects are demand-driven projects on Transco. And this new capacity enabled Transco to set one-day and three-day delivery records in January. All of this is before we realized the benefits of the most significant expansion in Transco's history, the Atlantic Sunrise project, which continues to make great progress. We have been dealt a challenging winter on the Atlantic Sunrise project. But a tremendous effort by our team managing the many contractors involved has kept this project on track, and importantly, in compliance with the many environmental regulations controls required up there. Certainly been no easy task for the team. But today, we are greater than 30% complete on the pipeline segment, and importantly, greater than 40% complete on the compressor station. So difficult winter conditions up there, but team's really been working it hard, and importantly, as I mentioned, really paying attention to the permitting requirements that are on us up there. We are targeting a July start-up for the mainline portion, with the greenfield compression likely taking a few months longer than that. Our LNG-related story continues as well, as the Gulf Connector has begun construction. And we're targeting the first quarter of 2019 for the in-service date for this 475 million a day addition to our Gulf Coast LNG delivery system. So we really have built out quite a delivery system along the Gulf Coast, being able to serve all the growing LNG. And Gulf Connector will be the second big addition to that. We also made the FERC certificate application on Gateway, a project that recently moved from the potential project list to full execution. And we continue to look at the potential to enhance Southeastern Trail. I'll remind everyone that we do have a binding shipper commitment that make a very attractive project for us on a standalone basis. But we are hoping to combine this with other customer needs to make another very significant large scale and strategic expansion on Transco that would be right on the heels of the Atlantic Sunrise expansion. Turning to the West. You may remember we spoke about the Chain Lake expansion in Wyoming during our third quarter call. Today, I'm pleased to update that we placed an additional Chain Lake expansion project into service in January, as we continue to add volumes on our Wamsutter system in Wyoming. So all in all, a great quarter with significant accomplishments across a variety of fronts. And with that let's move on to slide 5. I'm not going to spend too long on this slide, but it's an important and notable wrap-up reference regarding our 2017 performance versus guidance. All good news here with beats on all our key performance metrics and great progress on our leverage metrics as well. We continue to deliver not only on our operational metrics, but on our financial objectives as well. One thing I'd like to note here relative to debt, you can see our actual net debt to adjusted EBITDA came in well below the guidance. And on PZ, it came in about 3.5x, and on WMB at about 4.4x, which you can see is well below what we were targeting. You need to add about 0.3 or 0.4 to the actual number when estimating the rating agency calculation. And if you do that, this gets you up to about a 3.85 ratio on PZ and about a 4.75 at WMB on a consolidated basis. So just to be clear on that, we're excited about that, and certainly, we achieved better than we were hoping to for the year. But I would just remind you that we will see that creep up a bit here in 2018 as spending wraps up on Atlantic Sunrise, ahead of the full cash flow coming on. And then we expect that to come right back down as those cash flows come on. So overall, really great news on the credit metrics. And we'll continue to drive our strength in our balance sheet. Now, let's move on to slide 6 and take a look at our 2018 financial guidance. There will likely be some surprise at our adjusted EBITDA range, which has a midpoint of $4.55 billion, but as we'll see on the next slide, our year-to-year comparison on guidance has recently been hit by about $150 million of unusual noncash items that are driven by how regulatory accounting practices treat the new lower taxes and new GAAP revenue recognition standards that were applied to some amortized cash flows. Neither of these items impacts actual cash we will receive from customers in 2018. So, I want to stress that this really is driven by these accounting practices. Our base businesses look set to deliver guidance of about $4.7 billion prior to these items, which is a $300 million increase or about 7% on an apples-to-apples basis. So, what's this $150 million of noncash items about? Well, first of all, the new GAAP revenue recognition rules require us to spread out some of our deferred revenue for contracts that we've already received payment on over about 10 years longer than the old rules, and that dropped the 2018 adjusted EBITDA by about $120 million. And then, we also saw about $30 million in 2018 Tax Reform impact. Most of that comes on to Northwest Pipeline via regulatory accounting charges due to the Tax Reform, even though the revenues we receive from our customers won't change during this current rate cycle. Again, we'll look at the bridge on the next slide. Moving to DCF, we have a range of $2.9 million to $3.2 billion, and the midpoint of the range represents an 8% growth over 2017. Our dividend and distribution growth rates, related cash coverage, and leverage metrics are all consistent with the guidance we provided this time last year. And now, a year later out, we believe these growth rates will continue as we look out over the next two years. You will also note more specificity on the timing of growth through the year. At WPZ, we expect to increase distributions each quarter, so those will be quarterly raises. While at WMB, we expect to raise the dividend on just an annual basis. So, once each year. So, to be clear on that front, we'll be recommending a 13% dividend increase to be paid in March to the WMB board here in the near future with the same dividend level being recommended for June, September, and December, resulting in this 13% increase at WMB, which comes in slightly above the midpoint from our guided growth rate last year. We expect the WPZ raise to be right in the middle of the range of that 5% to 7% range that we talked about last year. We expect to maintain strong coverage at both WPZ and WMB, and the leverage metrics will remain at healthy levels, although we do expect the levels, as I've just mentioned, to rise a little bit as we spend on Atlantic Sunrise here in the near term. Coverage at WMB of approximately $100 million per quarter will be used to continue paying down the WMB revolver here in the first part of the year, and we continue to evaluate the best use of that excess cash flow at WMB post the revolver paydown, which will come in the second half of the year. So, let's take a closer look at that build-up for 2018 adjusted EBITDA now on slide 7. First of all, begin with the big pieces. By virtue of our sell of the Geismar olefins facility in July of 2017, you can see the $72 million step down there. That's just the EBITDA that was associated with that business. We expect a solid $300 million increase from our continuing businesses, with significant growth driven by Transco's expansion projects, partially offset by the loss of the Hadrian volumes on Discovery. We also expect strong growth in volumes and EBITDA out of our Northeast G&P business. Susquehanna Supply Hub is poised to make significant contributions as expansion work currently underway will wrap up in the first quarter. The end service of Atlantic Sunrise will lead to significant volume growth at both Susquehanna and Bradford County systems, but we are not counting on this until the later part of 2018. And recently, executed contracts combined with new business, we are currently finalizing will contribute to very strong Ohio River Supply Hub growth. The continued growth in our business and asset integrity work is leading to modestly higher operating expenses in 2018, as you can see. So, wrapping that up, $300 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is approximately a 7% growth rate year-over-year when comparing results from the continuing businesses leads us to about a $4.7 billion what would be EBITDA before the impacts of these non-cash new GAAP revenue recognition and Tax Reform impacts. As I discussed earlier, the key impact of the new accounting standard was to spread out the recognition of the prepayments we received in 2016 associated with Barnett and Mid-Con contract restructuring. If you recall, those were on gathering contracts that we had with Chesapeake that now primarily are Total contracts and reducing revenue recognized in 2018 and 2019, but increasing revenue recognized beyond 2019 versus what we expected on the old accounting standard. If you'll recall, it really was just driven by the fact that the period of the MVC was the period that we were amortizing that period over the new accounting standards require us to smooth that out over the entire life of the contract, not just the period that had the MVC impact. The impact on 2018 is about $120 million, less revenue being recognized under the current standard than we would have recognized operating under the old standard We want to get in the habit of providing multi-year guidance, however, we do expect an even stronger level of growth in 2019, particularly in Northeast G&P, and of course, on Transco. Given the timing around Atlantic Sunrise and the significance of that project as well as other projects we brought on in 2017 and 18, we thought it would be helpful to give you at least a glimpse here into what we expect coming off of Transco into 2019. So, let's move on to slide 8 and take a closer look at how Transco's adjusted EBITDA is growing over the next couple of years. So, here, as we dive deeper into what is going on with Transco, it's clear growth in Transco will be driven by negotiated rate expansion projects, and there is strong growth coming in the future. Let's begin with the impact of a full year of revenue from the 2017 Big 5 projects. Note that in 2017, we only had $140 million partial year impact of the Big 5 projects that were placed in service during the year. And in 2018, on top of that $140 million, we'll see an incremental $110 million. In 2017, we did have a significant step up in expenses, primarily due to necessary pipeline integrity and maintenance programs. We placed a high priority on safe operations and on proper maintenance and the cost of what you see coming through in our results in 2017. In 2018, you can see the full $250 million impact of the Big 5 when you add the $140 million partial year and $110 million – sorry, that was in 2019. And you also begin to see the impact of Atlantic Sunrise and Garden State here in 2018 with a partial-year contribution of $140 million after going into service in 2018. We also expect a big increase in Transco during 2019. So, as you can see here, these are some of the drivers. First of all, the effect of a full-year revenue from Atlantic Sunrise is captured here, as you see full-year impact of $425 million in EBITDA, resulting from a $285 million increase in 2019 on top of the $140 million contribution in 2018. And finally, as I mentioned earlier, Transco is also working on its next rate case. And I know there's a lot – high interest in this topic particularly with the recently enacted Tax Reform law. So, I wanted to talk you through what we think that process might look like as well. First, I want everyone to understand that the negotiated rate contracts Transco has are not subject to change with this rate case. Tax Reform will have no impact on these contracts. Those are firm fixed contracts and both parties agree on a fixed rate on front end for the term of those contracts. Most of our major expansions are covered by negotiated rate contracts. And in fact, by the time Atlantic Sunrise is in service, we expect Transco to be comprised of roughly 50% negotiated rates and 50% cost-of-service-based rates. It's the cost-of-service-based rates that are subject to changes with each of Transco's rate cases. Second, from a timing standpoint, we expect to make our initial rate filing in August, and we expect the revenue impact of new cost-of-service rates to be primarily a 2019 event. And then third, I want to discuss the factors that affect the actual value of a new cost-of-service rate. Certainly, operating expenses are intended to be recovered in the cost-of-service rates. So, for example, the increased expenses that we've been incurring on Transco from pipeline integrity and reliability improvements will be accounted for and recovered in our next round of cost-of-service rates. I would tell you that we've continued to have a lot of work to be done in this to keep the system safe. And so, you do see that cost continuing here for some time. Also, the maintenance capital spent on Transco goes directly into the rate base, and Transco will earn a return on that capital. So, these items would work to push our cost-of-service rates up from where they stand today. The Tax Reform Act has also generated lower corporate tax rates, which will also be a factor. There are two primary ways that the lower corporate tax rates will impact the pipeline's rates. First is simply the lower cost that lower tax rates represent the provision in our rates for current and future taxes will be lower and now that the corporate tax rates decreased, so that's kind of a forward-looking piece. The second impact is represented in the non-cash regulatory charge and related regulatory liability, which you saw when we discussed the fourth quarter results earlier in the call. This liability represents an estimate of the value that will be returned to shippers to account for the deferred portion of income tax provisions that we've collected in the past on Transco's rates. This liability will be amortized off of Transco's books and realized by cost-of-service shippers over an extended period of time, which could be as long as 20 years or even more. So, the rate making process on Transco for the cost-of-service contracts will likely be in negotiation that takes all of these factors into consideration as we jointly determine the fair cost-of-service rates for our max rate tariffs. So, in summary, taking all of these items into account, along with other impacts to the cost-of-service model, Transco does still expect to file for an increased cost-of-service rate in our upcoming August 2018 rate filing. So, now, moving on to slide 9. As we've shown, we have impressive growth in the next couple of years, largely from long-term fully contracted and fixed rate demand charges on a regulated pipeline, and the expected pull-through under our existing gathering contracts. Beyond these near-term growth drivers, our natural gas focused strategy and competitively positioned assets will likely capture even more growth in 2019 and beyond. And it's important to remember that Transco's fully contracted growth doesn't end with Atlantic Sunrise. And, in fact, we have a committed backlog of seven fully contracted projects that will go into service in 2019 and beyond, currently led by our largest of these, the Northeast Supply Enhancement project with commitments on that project mostly from subsidiaries of National Grid. We've applied for the FERC certificate and the FERC is currently working on the environmental impact statement. We are targeting a late 2019 in-service date for the project. But consistent with past practice, we include some additional time when forecasting revenue and EBITDA growth into our future business plans. Beyond this fully committed projects, I want to update you on the large portfolio of potential interstate transmission opportunities we are pursuing. At our 2017 Analyst Day, we discussed approximately 20 projects, which we were pursuing at that time. Since that time, 3 of these 20 projects have moved out of this bucket and moved from potential to customer committed. So, we've made great progress on those projects. Rivervale South to Market. And the Gateway project moved into full execution with FERC certificate application filed. And the Southeastern Trail project now has binding customer commitment, as I mentioned earlier. But new opportunities continue to emerge. And, in fact, the potential project list has now been backfill and now stands at over 20 projects. Moving to the Northeast Pipeline infrastructure build-out, we'll continue to unleash the power of the gas reserves in the Marcellus and the Utica. Based on our customer commitments and new activity, we now expect to expand our Ohio Valley Midstream processing capacity, which I'll remind you includes the Fort Beeler processing facility or complex as well as the Oak Grove complex. And we expect that combined capacity to increase by 400 million a day, which will take us up to over 1.1 Bcf a day on that processing complex. We also have discussions underway for a sixth major expansion of the Susquehanna Supply Hub. And in addition, we expect to complete the fifth expansion this quarter. So, a lot of that's already online, but we do have one remaining compressor station and a few loops we're putting online there. But really impressive how the Susquehanna Supply Hub and our work with both Cabot and Southwestern continues to expand our volumes up here. In the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, we also are seeing great growth opportunities, especially in 2020 and beyond. First of all, modifications to our Eastern Gulf assets to serve the new dedicated volumes from Shell's major Norphlet play are under construction, and so we're well underway with that. And just to remind you, we've been installing a lot of those facilities, and Shell has been reimbursing us for those. And so, we're really excited about seeing the impact of that, that'll come on likely in 2020. We're also very excited about our recent announcements from Shell on their Whale prospect and Chevron on their Ballymore prospect. Here, a few weeks ago, both these major prospects got announced. And just to kind of pin that down a little closer for you, the Whale prospect is within 15 miles of our Perdido oil and gas export pipeline, which come up onto Shell's Perdido facility. And the Ballymore prospect is within 3 miles of Chevron's Blind Faith platform, where our Mountaineer oil pipeline and our Canyon Chief gas pipeline already served Chevron in these areas. So, we do expect both of these major discoveries to drive significant free cash flows increases in 2020 and beyond. And finds such as Ballymore and Whale are clear indications that Deepwater developments remain highly commercial. And Williams is in the absolute right spot in both the Eastern and Western Gulf to benefit. And drilling activity in Wyoming is going to continue to drive growth in our gathering and processing volumes in both the Wamsutter and the Niobrara field. In fact, right on the heels of the two Chain Lake expansions I mentioned earlier, now comes another expansion opportunity in the Wamsutter for an additional customer in this emerging play. So, we continue to see a lot of activity going on out here in the Wamsutter field. We also continue to see volume growth in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville. And this activity demonstrates the value of our strategy to be in the right spots, in the best basins, and to be a large-scale competitive player in whatever basins we're in. We see very attractive long-run return on capital from our Western gathering and processing footprint. And that return on invested capital will be extended by the latest round of this customer activity. So now, I'll wrap it up here. Williams is committed to executing the plans that we've laid for our shareholders and customers and to expanding our business in a manner that generates sustainable shareholder value. The result of strong execution in 2017 included generating healthy cash coverage that supports investments in our attractive portfolio of growth projects, while significantly strengthening our balance sheet. Williams realized a $3.3 billion reduction in consolidated net debt during the year. And through disciplined capital investing, we drove an important improvement in our return on capital employed, which has become really a key focus not just from the management team, but obviously that was driven by the board. And I would tell you that that's become front and center in our decisions as we look at our business. And as we do look ahead to our plans to expand the business, I want to reiterate that Williams has achieved full self-funding. We do not need to issue any public equity at WMB or at PZ to fund our stated forecasted capital projects through our full planning horizon. We're able to do this while maintaining a strong balance sheet and leverage metrics and healthy coverage of both WPZ distributions and WMB dividends. WMB shareholders are now positioned to benefit from a $1.9 billion reduction in deferred tax liabilities, which will manifest itself through an extended period of cash tax deferral. Williams does not expect to be a cash federal income tax payer through at least 2021, and this could be potentially longer of course, depending on our future capital spending opportunities. And we'll experience much lower taxes being paid when that deferral period does ultimately end. So we're excited about where we are with the company today. We're excited about where we're going. We think we are extremely well-positioned financially. We've got the operating capabilities that we need. And strategically, we think we're positioned better than anybody in the space when it comes to taking advantage of these low-cost natural gas reserves that continue to expand and grow demand in our both U.S. and international markets. So I thank you for your time today. And with that I'll turn it over to the operator for our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll take our first question from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Want to start off with Northeast gathering and processing there. And the O&M had stepped up a bit quarter-over-quarter there. I was wondering if you could dive in a bit more on some of the drivers there. And also just expanding on the segment, in general, if you could just refresh us as far as activity rig count in your area and kind of what gives you the confidence as far as the growth into 2018.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning. This is Michael Dunn. I'll take that question. In regard to the expenses in the Northeast, I will tell you, from an enterprise perspective, let's talk about that first. We look at improvements in our operating margin across the entire enterprise in each one of our operating areas. And we drill that down to the franchise level within each one of those operating areas. So we have set goals for the organization to improve those targets on our operating margin. In the Northeast specifically, obviously, we're seeing significant growth up there. We're adding a number of facilities, whether it be compression or pipeline facilities that includes additional employees but additional operating costs that come along with that, whether they be electric power for our facilities as well as the costs that go along with that. So we're seeing really strong growth in our revenues up there. And correspondingly, with that growth, we're seeing increase in our cost. Specifically in the Northeast, we saw the new compression facilities that came online, our new employees. I mentioned the additional electric cost. But we also had emergent work in West Virginia, dealing with longwall coal mines that are underground coal mines that we actually have to go out and mitigate the pipelines that are above those coal mines, so that we don't have any operational issues. So we target those, and we typically know where those are going to occur. And we work with the coal mine companies to mitigate that. But that does increase our expense there. And also avoidance of impacts from land movement in primarily West Virginia. We did have some emergent overhauls at our Fort Beeler facility as well that were unanticipated that increased our costs there. We did have a pension lump sum settlement too, that obviously is adjusted out of our GAAP earnings, but – our GAAP numbers, but those obviously affected us there. That actually lowers our costs going forward in the future but had a onetime impact on our business. So I would say, in the Northeast specifically, we are seeing a lot of growth and it is driving costs higher. And we do have expansions under way, not only in the Susquehanna Supply Hub, Bradford costs are increasing. But in the Ohio River Supply Hub, with our Oak Grove expansion that we're working on there as we speak, we'll see cost increasing there as those facilities come on line as well next year. So growth is driving cost higher, but certainly we're watching very closely operating margin associated with each one of those franchises. And we've had set goals established for our teams to meet or beat their objectives there. When it comes to rig counts, we are seeing a lot of improvement there. In many of these areas, the producers are anticipating the online of Atlantic Sunrise. And correspondingly, we're seeing a lot of drilling activity in anticipation of Atlantic Sunrise coming on. But the additional takeaway capacity that's been generated by third parties in the Marcellus, we also are benefiting from that as well. So we're seeing a lot of production growth that's anticipated, especially in some of the wet plays that we're associated with. And that's driving a lot of additional business for us, as I indicated. And our Oak Grove expansion is a great example of that.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks. And maybe just touching on Southwestern to build on there, if you could just update us there as far as how the ramp progressed during the quarter and how you see that kind of going into 2018?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Maybe just – this is Alan. I'll just add a little bit there. First of all, in the Southwest Marcellus area, Southwestern's been very active there. And just to remind you, we signed a contract with them last year. And the way that contract works, they basically inform us ahead of time when they intend to bring on new volumes. And as they do that, our capacity that we make available for them on the processing expand and their minimum volume commitment to expand, to stand behind those investments that we make. And we have seen them increasing those requests for service, which drive that up, and so a lot going on there. I would tell you that there's quite a bit of activity right now going on, connecting a lot of their pads. So I think they've been very successful out there. And we're thrilled to have them as a customer out there. And they continue to improve. So feeling good about that relationship. We also as you know have expanded our relationship with EQT in the Ohio River – Valley Midstream area. And they are being very active in driving some of the growth that we're seeing there at Ohio Valley Midstream as well. So finally seeing some real pull-through as the acreage out there has gotten into the right hands. And it's great acreage and was held by various counterparties. But the consolidation we're seeing out here in and around our acreage is really starting to drive a lot of activity and growth.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got you. Great. And just one last one, Discovery, I was wondering if you could provide a bit more color there and kind of your outlook and kind of ability to kind of redeploy or get more business there.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Sure. So just to kind of remind people there, the Hadrian field, which was a large gas-only field that came across Anadarko's Lucius platform, but it was an Exxon-operated field, Hadrian was. Two very large wells that were producing – I think they got up to almost 400 million a day of production off those two wells of dry gas that came across that platform. I'm not going to get into Exxon's business there, but we've seen that production decline off dramatically. And we don't right now expect that production to come back on line here for 2018. And so, they'll have to decide what they're going to do with those reserves. But, right now, we don't expect that to come back on anytime soon. That was about roughly, I think, in terms of impact to our expected 2018 numbers, it was about $95 million in terms of reduction of what we would have – or I should say definitely in terms of what we saw in 2017, it was reduction from 2017 to 2018 by that amount. That's net to our interest. We own 60% of the Discovery system. Lots of other prospects out there in the area. And frankly, we were running completely full on that system, both on the processing side and on the Keathley Canyon Connector, which is that line that goes up to the Lucius platform. But there are some very large RFPs that we're bidding on right now. So, we don't expect anything of that kind of significance to backfill that here in 2018. But there's a tremendous amount of prospects there in the Keathley Canyon area that were – gas takeaway solution for that area. So, we would expect to win that business. So, short term, negative; long term, Discovery, as always, is positioned in a great spot.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's very helpful. I'll pause there. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning. I think you've said before that after Atlantic Sunrise comes on line, Chesapeake will be down to 10% of your EBITDA. I wanted to make sure that, that's about right? And as a follow-up, would you be willing to comment on your next one or two largest customers? Are they E&Ps or utilities, and kind of roughly what share of EBITDA they are?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, let's see. First of all, on the Chesapeake front, yes, I think your 10% number is fairly accurate as we move forward here. I would say, obviously, that's dependent on asset sales that Chesapeake continues to execute on. And so, with additional asset sales, that might drop lower. In terms of our largest customers, I would tell you, it's quite a mix there. Certainly, Cabot's been running up fast on that list with all the great business that we have within there in Susquehanna Supply Hub and then – and Atlantic Sunrise comes on. So, I think that's really going to drive that. But if you look below that, you'll start to see a lot of the big utility customers that we have on the Transco system. So, anyway, I think that's probably the right way to think about that. Obviously, Southwestern is emerging but not anywhere near yet, where we see Cabot as an E&P customer.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Got it. That's really helpful.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Alan, you got anything to add to that?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I think that's great. That's right.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thank you. That's really helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up, a number of the Marcellus E&Ps are now discussing living within cash flow at least over the next couple of years, I guess. Has that impacted your growth outlook, or is it fair to think that the Northeast Marcellus is somewhat immune from that just because it's so takeaway-constrained?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think, obviously, we stay very close to Cabot. And they've done a great job and been very disciplined, and, as you know, continue to build a lot of cash on their side. So, I think they will just continue to generate more cash as new markets open up, too. It's pretty remarkable to me to see what they've been able to do in such a very low price environment that they've been exposed to. And so, I think they are capable of operating in a very low price environment and continue to generate cash flow. So, as for Cabot, I would say that I think in terms of the moving down to the Bradford area, obviously, great reserves there as well, and that area is going to benefit from much better markets as well. And then, finally, in the Southwest Marcellus area, obviously, these higher NGL prices that producers have been experiencing in that area really driving cash flows for folks there. But I think, right now, we're seeing an intense focus by the players that are really beginning to consolidate these basins. EQT is probably the biggest example of that, but their ability to generate returns on even low prices, I think, is going to continue to drive the kind of growth. Frankly, we're better off as a gatherer. We're better off if that growth doesn't come in huge spikes that comes in a steady growth pattern, because it means less capital investment per free cash flow for us. So, we're pretty pleased with the current rate of growth that we're seeing. And it's right in line with what we laid out last year in our Analyst Day as we look (48:27) pro forma that we rolled out at the Analyst Day last year. We're pretty well staying right in line with that. And that's going to drive a lot of value for us if it continues on that trajectory.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Perfect. That answers my question. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Christine Cho of Barclays.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start off in the West. The volumes are good. Can you just remind us if the Haynesville contracts are higher margin than the other G&P areas in this section?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I mean, the rates there, as you'll recall, we renegotiated those rates several years ago and we exchanged a lower rate for drilling obligations from Chesapeake. And we combined those two systems out there. So, I would say, our rates out there today are in line with the market. In terms of the operating margin that we have out there, it's probably in line. I think the benefit we have out there right now, Christine, is that we had quite a bit of capacity already built. So, you'll recall, we did a little expansion back in August of last year. But, overall, we've got the capacity sitting there, and these pads are pretty well built out, so we're not having to spend a lot of well connect capital. And our operating costs continue to be pretty low for the area, just because the systems already built out. And so, that's the kind of advantage you have when a system comes back, and you've already got the capacity built out for it. So, I think that's that margin that you're seeing.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I actually didn't mean relative to like market. I meant relative to the other areas in the West segment. So, are the Haynesville rates higher than, like your Niobrara, your Rockies, et cetera?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, they are not. But again, it's very dependent on the total services that we are offering. And so, what I was getting at there was that we've already had these operating systems up and running. And once they're a little more mature, we're able to really put pressure on our costs as opposed to when we're in a growing mode and we're having to add people and quickly bring volumes up. So, I would just say, because the Haynesville has been operating for quite some, our unit operating costs, they're pretty mature. So, if you wanted to get down to operating margin percentage there, it's probably pretty good on that basis.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then I wanted to go to your slide 8 in the presentation. The $425 million full-year contribution from Atlantic Sunrise and Garden State, I just wanted to clarify if these are gross or net numbers to you, as I think Atlantic Sunrise is consolidated in your financials, but the non-controlling interest line is below the adjusted EBITDA.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. No, you are correct. That is the gross number.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And do you have like a net...
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That is what goes into EBITDA, and then there'll be a minority interest deduction number.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then, lastly, WPX sold their San Juan acreage. And just wanted to see what kind of impact you expect to see from that, if any, and to confirm that the contracts will transfer over to the new owners.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. First of all, we haven't seen the contract shift yet, so obviously, we'll take a look at that as we do in situation like that. We've been able – always able to work with our customers to deal with credit issues, which obviously is the primary issue in any kind of exchange like that, but I would – so, too early to tell you on that. We haven't concluded that. I would say that we're continuing to see the acreage fall into the right hands, and it's very much a positive for us when we see acreage shifting around like this because, as you know, WPX has a lot of high-return investment opportunity in the Permian that is going to keep them busy for a long time. And so, moving this over to somebody who will bring the cost of capital that it needs in the Mancos oil play there is a positive thing. And we're really seeing that throughout the West. So, we just continue to see properties falling into the right hands, and we think that's a real positive for us.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. I'll leave it at that. Thank you so much.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Christine.
Operator:
And from Goldman Sachs, we turn next to Ted Durbin.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks. On the Transco rate case, I wonder if you can quantify what kind of rate increase you might be looking for? Are we talking in sort of the double digits in percentage terms, or maybe said another way, how much do you think you're under earning on your cost-of-service rates right now in Transco?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Ted, I would just tell you, that will be determined when we get done with the test period or base period, and so – that we're forming those rates, and when we get done, I think that ends here in May, I think, and that'll form the basis for that rate in August. But I would tell you, the numbers on Transco are big and it takes a lot (54:00) direction to move those rates very much. So, don't expect any major shifts in that rate one way or the other.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. That makes sense. And then, as we think about the O&M increases you've had in the Atlantic-Gulf segment, you talked about Transco and the higher maintenance capital we've had, should we think about what we're looking at in 2018 as a good run rate, or should we see a step up or step down as we look ahead into 2019? You've had your maintenance capital numbers stepped up decently well here in the guidance versus where you've run the last couple of years. Just talk about run rate operating costs, particularly around Transco, please.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Ted, thanks for the question. First of all, you could draw the conclusion – without seeing the details, you could draw the conclusion that our expansions are really driving a lot of that cost, and that's just not the case really. The cost is being increased as we go through the process of doing things that you might consider to some people would look like maintenance capital, but by the details of the rules (55:16) are not maintenance capital. So, for instance, doing hydro testing on pipeline and doing repairs, all of that, it winds up in expense. We have a lot of that to do on the Transco system. And certainly, because we operate in such highly populated areas, we are going to spend the money to make sure our pipes are safe. And so, that kind of cost, even though some might consider that maintenance of the system is really what's been driving our cost up here recently. And we've got a lot more work to do on that front. So, those costs will continue for quite some time as we do that. Now, the thing that's difficult about that is predicting what that cost is actually going to be, because when you hydro test the line, if you do see problems, you're having to forecast the rate of repair required, if you will, when you do either the internal inspection, testing, or the hydro testing, either one, you'd have to estimate what your rate of repair is, so that just becomes an estimate. And until you actually run the test, then you really don't know what your repair requirements are going to be. So, that becomes a little bit difficult to predict, much more difficult than just ongoing operating expenses of keeping a compressor station running or keeping the right of ways maintained and the measurement systems maintained on the pipeline. So, hopefully, that helps you understand, but I think bottom line is we've got high costs that are related to bringing the – making sure we've maintained the system adequately, and that will continue for some time here.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's great. And then last one from me, just on CapEx guidance. $2.7 billion total, $1.7 billion at Transco, can you just bridge us what goes into that $1 billion difference? Is it more the Northeast and some of the OVM spending you talked about at the Deepwater? Kind of a little more color on where that $1 billion is coming out of?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Sure. First of all, as I mentioned, like the Norphlet project we're doing for Shell on the Deepwater, that's included in capital. But if you really got down to seeing the sources and uses, you'd see that being reimbursed even though we count that as capital. So, some of that is reimbursed capital that would show up as capital spending, but in fact, it gets reimbursed. And so, that's about maybe 20% or so of that 15% maybe. And then, in the Northeast, a lot of growth going on, and with the sixth expansion that I talked about in the Northeast as well as a build-out of the Ohio expanding the processing capacity in the Ohio Valley Midstream area. And then out West, the Wamsutter area is the primary driver for growth out West, as we continue to expand those systems. And I would tell you that probably the next area that we'll be looking to need to expand will probably be the Niobrara with the growth that's going on there. So, that probably will wind up being more of a 2019 issue perhaps, but maybe start spending on that. So, that's really driving most of it is actually in all three areas. The largest of those right now though is the Northeast in both the Susquehanna County area as well the Ohio Valley Midstream area.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Perfect. I'll leave it at that. Thank you very much.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Ted.
Operator:
And up next is Shneur Gershuni from UBS.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Maybe we can start off with the balance sheet and expectations on return of capital going forward. If I recall, when you did the restructuring early last year, you sort of seemed that there was a goal to reduce leverage by about $5 billion. You did the equity issuances, you've had some asset sales, and EBITDA seems to be recovering and so forth. Was wondering how far away we are until the agencies would view the consolidated entity as IG? And then, what your expectations are for returning cash flow with respect to WMB getting close to paying off its revolver in the second half of this year?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I'll take the last part of that. And I'll let John Chandler take the first part in terms of the balance sheet piece of that and the rating agencies. On the return of cash flow, I would just say, lots of different opportunities for WMB. We are excited about adding value to our shareholders with that excess cash flow. But as we've said previously, we're going to be looking for the best opportunity. And so, that can come in a lot of different forms. As you know, it's not a similar debate to Williams. But I would say, one of the areas that is also attractive is WMB making singular investments in new project opportunities as WMB is an opportunity as the opportunity slate for Williams continues to grow. That's not everything obviously, because we don't want to make things so convoluted between what's owned by MB and PZ, but we will certainly look for that, given how many really highly attractive projects we've got out there. And then, of course, the continued dividend raise obviously is a place to go with incremental cash. So, lots of opportunities on that front. And I would just tell you we'll see what the market looks like six months from now in terms of when we're up against that. So, stay tuned, but I'd tell you we're excited about using that capital to drive additional value for WMB shareholders. And, John, if you'll take maybe the question on the balance sheet.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, sure. So, as we exited 2017, WMB had about $270 million outstanding on its revolver, and we're generating around $100 million of excess cash flow every quarter at WMB after it makes its dividends. So, we'll continue to pay that revolver down. And that obviously puts us in the third quarter or fourth quarter when the revolver's gone, which will further bring our leverage down. But again, as Alan pointed out earlier in the call, with the spending on Atlantic Sunrise and the various other projects, our leverage will tick up somewhat as we get to the end of 2018, and then once we get the full benefit of Atlantic Sunrise will come back down again. And so, as I think about investment grade and as a consolidated entity with the $4 billion in debt that's up at WMB, I think we need – and when we talk about investment grade, when we say investment grade, we're really talking about mid-level investment grade, not BBB- but a solid BBB ratio. We think we need to be in the, probably, 4.5 to 4.75 times zip code of debt to EBITDA. And it's depending on when the rating agencies give us kind of full credit for Atlantic Sunrise, but I think in the early part of 2019, we can make a pretty strong argument about that.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And as a follow-up question, you were talking about the Northeast earlier in response to a question talking about how Cabot is able to operate in the low-cost environment. And there were some other questions about how bottlenecked the Northeast is. But at the same time, Mariner East 2 is expected to come on line, Rover is expected to come on line, and so forth. In your conversations with E&P companies, how much do the IRRs for them to drill change as a result of these projects coming online? And once that hits, does that accelerate the opportunity for you to achieve what you outlined at the Investor Day about potentially investing $1 billion of capital in the Northeast at a 2.5 times EBITDA multiple?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great question. I would just, say, Shneur, that the one thing that's a bit complex around that obviously is who has long-haul capacity that they hold or don't hold. And so I think that will tend to drive whether somebody is being very opportunistic in very short term and just drilling when the pricing is there. Obviously, they can turn these areas when the infrastructure is already in place, and they've got a pad sitting there, they can turn incremental production on very quickly when the pricing opportunity exposes itself. I think we're going to see more of that as the capacity gets built out. But I do think it's very dependent on if you've got long-haul capacity that you are constantly filling or you have a gas purchase contract for a good price that you can depend on. You can be more of an ongoing and less reactive mode, if you're a producer in that situation, versus if you're one that's just sitting, waiting for a price peak and hitting that. I think what we're seeing through the consolidation in the basin is more of the former example. I think previously, we had a lot of the latter example. And the big consolidators in the basin are making long-term commitments to either NGL takeaway or gas takeaway, as you mentioned, and that is going to position them for long-term drilling and is going to make their variable price point very different than somebody that doesn't have that takeaway capacity. And so I think we are certainly continuing to see expansion going. I think people are getting better and better at getting their cost down on the reserves. And so I think that's pretty promising for the Northeast in terms of volumes. I also think though there has been a pretty strong delineation, because people have got such a strong portfolio of opportunity that it's going to be awhile before people get to the lesser acreage. And by that, I mean the lower return acreage. I think it's going to be a while before people get to that, because there's such a great inventory of the very strong acreage in both Susquehanna and Bradford County in the Northeast, and then of course, in West Virginia and for our Southwest Pennsylvania for the rich Marcellus. So I'd say, feeling pretty optimistic. But I do think, to answer your question, it's very dependent on what it produces, a long-haul takeaway or their gas purchase contracts are out of the area as to how steady their drilling is going to be.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Final question. With respect to the Gulf of Mexico, and I understand there's the discovery dispute and so forth, but it seems like producers, and I believe you mentioned Shell, seem to be adding capital into the Gulf of Mexico, talking about tiebacks profitable at $40 oil. Do you see this as an emerging opportunity for Williams going forward? Just kind of wondering if it's a one-off or if it's something that we should be thinking about across the Gulf of Mexico.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would tell you, we happen to be in the right spots. And so that's the good news in that we've got on top of the prospects that we talked about today, there's a lot of other opportunities that are emerging and quite a few large RFPs that we're responding to for big infrastructure development in the area. So I would say we have seen a resurgence. I don't think that it ever quite went away the way people thought it did in terms of the opportunity, because folks like Shell don't just turn on a dime on these kind of things. They've got a long-term commitment to the area. And they've been sitting on that well prospect for quite some time. But they've got to make sure there's room in the infrastructure, both on their platform and in our pipelines to get that gas and oil out of there. And so that's kind of what you're seeing managed. I think people are trying to lessen their big capital commitments and trying to utilize existing infrastructure as much as possible. And I think that's really the shift that we've seen. And I think you'll continue to see that, because if you can use an existing platform and you're not having to put billions of dollars in new infrastructure in, you can be pretty responsive to oil and gas prices. And I think that's what we'll continue to see out in this play.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much. Really appreciate the color today.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Shneur.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Colton Bean of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Morning. Just wanted to follow up in the conversation around Northeast producers. So I agree in the consideration of pipeline capacity, but it seems like at least in the near term, there's been some consideration that producers may pull off volumes from local hubs relative to actually adding new production over the 2018 and maybe into 2019. So just wanted to get a sense of how you guys were thinking about that as you formulate your forecast for the Northeast?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, well, I would say that we look at what requests come in from our producers to actually formulate our forecast. And as I mentioned earlier in the call, a lot of those come with obligations. So when a producer says that they want to increase their volumes or their capacity on our system, that comes with an obligation that stands behind that. So obviously, they've given that good thought and – before they make those kind of commitments. But that's basically what we generate our forecast off of. I would say, we have very little speculative drilling built into our forecast (1:09:35) off of that. But I would say, as we look into 2019, first, 2018 is strong with I think about a 13% increase from the fourth quarter to fourth quarter, so exit rate to exit rate. And so that's very identified right now in terms of where that volume's coming from. And as we look into 2019, we're seeing a similar pull-through. But again, so many of our contracts are either cost of service, which requires long-term planning, or minimum volume commitment-backed contracts. That's really what's driving our forecast.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Okay. Helpful. And then just to circle back to the West segment. So it looks like you're up about $250 million (1:10:28) in the gathering piece. So you mentioned the Haynesville, but then 8 of the other 10 – or I guess eight of the other nine were also up. Can you just frame, I mean, what the magnitude was? Was there any meaningful contributors there or predominately Haynesville?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Haynesville was the biggest I think behind that probably on a percentage basis. (1:10:51)
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
On a percentage basis, we saw pretty significant increase in the Niobrara. Although it's a smaller number, it's a big increase we saw. As we mentioned, the Haynesville and even some improvement in the Anadarko, though across the board, saw pretty good improvement across all of those. The Eagle Ford was up almost double digits there as well, so.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think on an order of magnitude, I think, Haynesville and Eagle Ford were the two biggest drivers. But on a percentage basis, the Niobrara was pretty strong. And I would tell you, given the current activity, we expect that to continue to be a pretty strong percentage driver, even though on an absolute basis it doesn't have that much impact.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Got it. Okay. And just a final question here on maintenance. So relatively light versus 2017 guide. Is that tied at all to your conversation around the O&M spend and some of that transition from what you would consider maintenance CapEx to the operating expense line? Or just came in lower than expected?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, I would say – this is Michael Dunn again. I'd say, it came in lower than expected across the board, really across all of our franchises. We anticipated some work that actually wouldn't likely shift into 2018 from the appearance of a lot of it. Was just a lot of that work that was in process, but just didn't get completed in the fourth quarter. So we are seeing some of that shift into 2018, which is not – that's pretty typical, I would say, as to what we see where we do have a shift at the end of the year in some of that work that we just don't get completed, and it shifts into the future year. But we really thought across all of our franchises where we had work that was anticipated to be completed, and we just didn't get it finished.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Okay. So with 2018 being flat versus the 2017 guide, implications that 2018 would have actually been down but some of that slipped to this year?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I wouldn't characterize it that way. In fact, we're seeing 2018 slightly ahead of where we've anticipated 2017 to come out. We're seeing a lot of work, as we indicated earlier, in our Transco system, but not only on the expense side, but on the maintenance CapEx side as well for integrity and reliability projects.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
So, yeah, to be clear we are expecting an increase in maintenance capital from 2017 to 2018.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
But the guides are effectively flat? $500 million both years?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
We came in below that $500 million in 2017. So, I think, we came in at $440 million...
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Yeah. That's correct.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's right.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
...in 2017.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
So, I think one thing when you look to our guidance for 2018, we widened our distributable cash flow guidance, in part, because of trying to really fine tune around maintenance capital spending. I think the last couple of years, if you look at our performance versus our guidance, we come in below the guidance and it's just a matter of how much work you can get done. And typically we don't know that till we get towards the end of the year. So, we widened the guidance a little bit to reflect that.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Yes. All right. Well, thank you, guys.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
And from Citi, our next call comes from Eric Genco.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Morning. I was just hoping to drill in maybe a little bit on the excess coverage at WMB and the shareholder return question. Is it fair to characterize it and say, if you got 1.36 excess coverage there that your first priority after you're done with the leverage pay down is would be projects that you needed to avoid, public equity issuance and other entity? But then is it basically – as people are sort of anticipating the potential for a consolidation of the two entities is it just a matter of looking at WMB's NAV versus its ownership of PZ? And if that is at a discount, should we assume that WMB buybacks move up the pecking order in terms of what you would like to do with that capital?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. All of that. There's, obviously, a lot of things to consider there. But, as you know, the Tax Reform, of course, pushes out the date by which we would be a cash tax payer at WMB, which is obviously one of the benefits of getting that tax stuff up (1:15:24) first. And secondly, ultimately, the tax rate that we're paying just got lowered as well. So, I would just say that, that driver is somewhat lessened as a result of Tax Reform bill as we look out there. So, John?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I think you're – I mean, obviously, and Alan alluded to this earlier. When we get to that point, we'll be making a relative return decision and if WMB appears undervalued, maybe we buy back WMB shares. If WPZ seems undervalued, maybe we buy back WPZ shares or maybe we co-invest in projects. Generally, as it relates to the buy-in of the partnership, now that the Tax Reform is understood, once our leverage gets right, I think, just generally, as it relates to that entity, I think we'll have to take a look at how the MLP space is doing in general. I think MLP is a tool to race capital over the long term if that market were strong, I think we'd have to ask, do we want to make it go away or not. And if the space is kind of just trending sideways, like – I mean, it's a little bit improved now, but generally trending sideways, then, you have to (1:16:32) leave it outstanding. So, I think it's a bigger picture than just that. I think it's a question about the strength of the space when we get there.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, shifting gears on – and just a bigger picture-type question on Northeast. If Constitution were to never happen in some of these other pipes that are there, how do we think about the multiyear outlook for Northeast G&P? Because for the longest time and even now, we're waiting for Constitution to come on to basically debottleneck Susquehanna Supply Hub, and I believe, Bradford, to some extent. But if you don't get Constitution or some of these other things, are there other opportunities, or do we sit back and say, the volume increase from, call it, 4Q 2017 to 4Q 2020 in those areas is pretty much limited to Atlantic Sunrise's capacity?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great question. First of all, I would just say, we have other projects ultimately. And, of course, we have a project called Diamond East, which follows our Leidy route and the expansion of our Leidy route. A lot of recent interest in that project. So, that expands capacity into Zone 6 in a pretty meaningful way as one alternative. And then, additionally, ultimately, we have some expansion capability on Atlantic Sunrise. So, I would just say, if the folks in New England area want to continue to buy their gas from Russia, they can, and the folks in the south will benefit from that. So, that looks like that's – what that's going to continue to be is lower-cost gas supplies for the growing industries in the south. And so, we'll see on Constitution. I think in the grand scheme of things, it's an important – it's not that big in terms of total volume takeaway from the area. It is important, I think, in terms of determining if the Trump administration's going to be successful in pushing for infrastructure development. And so, we remain very committed to that. But I would tell you in the grand scheme of things, the market takeaway, there's plenty of market growing to the south. And we were very well-positioned to be able to get that gas there through either expansions of Atlantic Sunrise or Diamond East, as I just mentioned.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Darren Horowitz of Raymond James.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Just a quick one for me. When you think about the EBITDA buildup, not just for 2018 but going into 2019 as well, and you think about it more on an EBITDA per Mcf basis, can you just help us understand how much of that buildup and progression is Atlantic Sunrise line contributions into the Susquehanna and Bradford systems in addition to Garden State versus maybe just more aggregate takeaway capacity alleviating basis pressure in the basin? And then, into 2019, how do we think about the construct of that EBITDA buildup versus what could be rising O&M expenses again?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Darren, make sure I heard that correctly. First of all, last quarter out on the buildup, the cost buildup that you see there in 2018 certainly would carry – that cost increase would certainly carry into 2019, but not a whole lot of incremental costs associated with bringing those projects online. So, as I mentioned earlier, it's more going to be driven by the maintenance work. And that step-up that you see in the prior year will carry in to the 2019 period as well. So, I think that answers that part. If would you try again on – I didn't quite understand the basis differential question.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Well, I'm just trying to figure out, like if you look at the gathering capacity in Northeast Pennsylvania, it's probably pushing at this point for you guys 6 Bcf a day. So, I'm trying to figure out as you guys kind of progress on that EBITDA per Mcf ramp that was laid out at the Analyst Day, obviously, incremental takeaway capacity by you guys and your competitors out of the basin is going to alleviate basis pressure. Based on your footprint, you're going to get your natural market share with regard to a step-up in volume, based on just easy capacity utilization. So, I'm trying to figure out how much of it is driven by the basis uplift and incremental volume across your assets versus what you guys are adding on a fully-contracted basis such that the EBITDA per Mcf could shift a little bit.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Got it. Thank you. That's very helpful. Thank you. Yeah, so, I would say, first of all, we do think that there is a lot more growth out of the area than, just for instance, Atlantic Sunrise and/or potentially Diamond East. We think obviously, if you're to look at Cabot's slide and all the different market and gas purchase contracts that they've done with power plants in the area, they've got a nice step-up coming from that. And so, I would say, they've been pretty smart on that. But I also would remind people that as these big takeaway projects come out of the Southwest part of the Marcellus or Mountain Valley, Atlantic Coast, as those come online and get attached to growing markets there, that will pool gas off of systems that serve the Northeast today that are in serving that local market. So, even the Northeast PA will gain some benefit from that takeaway capacity to the Southwest because you'll just see volumes start to be supplied from the Northeast rather than the Southwest on a local – in both power plant basis and local use. But in terms of our EBITDA margin, and what we're expecting in pull-up there, most of it is just coming – we have fixed the contract, and the EBITDA margin is just coming from our cost remaining relatively flat plus a mix of a higher portion of our volume coming from places like Ohio Valley Midstream, where we have a much higher margin per Mcf basis. And so, those are the two main drivers for us. But as I mentioned earlier, in terms of our volume forecast, it's pretty well driven by detailed plans that we have with – in fact, it is driven by detailed plans that we have with our producing customers right now, as we build out those systems and their obligations stand behind that. So, I would say, at least for the next couple of years, we have a very good read on what we expect those volumes to do. We have won some new business and are winning some new business in the Southwest area that will increase our processing volumes in the Southwest that would have been over and above our earlier forecast. But for the most part, our forecasts are just driven by our existing gathering contracts and the plans that we have with those producers today. And that, by itself, is driving that EBITDA margin uplift, if you will, that we spoke about at last Analyst Day.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Chris Sighinolfi of Jefferies.
Unknown Speaker:
Hey, guys. It's Cory (1:24:15) filling in for Chris. And thanks so much for taking time, so much extra time to answer all of our questions. Just two really quick ones for me. The first one is just want to make sure we heard the Transco timeline correctly. So, that on slide 8, that $140 million walk from 2017 to 2018, that assumes July and service of compressor. And you said a few months after that, it would be the greenfield pipe portion that would start contributing?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Right. Yeah. I can take a little bit of more filler on that. Right now, we're anticipating and targeting that our contractors are going to be mechanically complete on the pipeline portion in July. And mechanical completion means just that, the contractors are finished with their work and then commissioning begins with our teams. And with the compressor stations mechanically complete, the time between mechanical completion and in-service when you can commission those compressor stations takes a bit longer. There's just a lot more process, because you have to go through on the compressor stations to complete your commissioning activities, where it's a lot quicker on the pipeline systems. You're really just commissioning the valves and meter stations on the pipeline, but much more complicated on the compressor station. So, the compressor stations lag a few months there although their percentage completion right now is leapfrogging the pipeline. The commissioning process takes a bit longer with the compressor stations. So, that's why you see a little bit of a lag there on the compressor stations beyond the pipelines being mechanically complete.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. All right. That makes sense. And then, I'm assuming this was done on purpose, but there's no way you can bifurcate Atlantic Sunrise and Garden State for us, can you?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
As far as a revenue impact, EBITDA impact, the contribution, yeah?
Unknown Speaker:
Yeah. That EBITDA, that $140 million split. I don't know if you can for us.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I tell you what, why don't you call our IR team, and they can give you some detail. I think we have provided some information previously that'll help you on that.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. And then just last one from us is – and I apologize if I missed this, but the cadence of the dividend and distribution growth in 2018, the quarterly for PZ, the annual for MB, was that new?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, we've talked about the increase – the new piece that we laid out today was saying that we were just going to go ahead and just do annual increases on WMB versus quarterly distribution increases. So, that is new. The percentage of annual increase is staying the same, but the annual versus quarterly distinction is new.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. And just out of curiosity, the motivation for the difference there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I would just say, first of all, I think the MLP space is used to the quarterly raise and the quarterly distributions. And I would say, large more utility-like C-Corps are more annual raisers, and so we were just pretty well staying in line with what we see really out of the more pure market for WMB. And so, that's really the driver on.
Unknown Speaker:
Understood. All right. Thanks so much again for the time, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you. Okay. Go ahead.
Operator:
I apologize. This concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Armstrong, at this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Thank you. Lots of great questions. Thank you, all. Appreciate all the attention to the business. Really, well-positioned as we go forward here. I think the low gas prices that we're seeing particularly in the forward market are just evidence of the people's confidence in our ability to utilize and get low-priced gas out of the ground. We think it's a really positive thing for us, both on the LNG development and those markets as well as the development on gas fired generation, and I think we'll see some of that this summer, that demand start to pick up as well. So, really excited about how the fundamentals are supporting our business and especially pleased with the continued improvement in executions on our projects by our teams all across the Williams system. So, we thank you for your interest, and I look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you.
Operator:
And this does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc. Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Alex S. Kania - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams and Williams Partners Third Quarter 2017 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Chris. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn; and our CFO, John Chandler. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks, and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we've reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you, John, and welcome everyone. I want to begin by introducing John Chandler to this call as our new CFO. He joined Williams in September and he's no stranger to many of you obviously. John enjoyed a long tenure at Magellan as CFO and he actually went to Magellan whom we spun it out from Williams. We're very pleased to be welcoming John back to Williams and you'll hear more from John later this morning. Of course, John is replacing Don Chappel who's retired from Williams, and I want to thank Don for all of his contributions to the company and we certainly wish him well in his retirement. As for the quarter, I'd like to start by thanking the team for another strong quarter of fee-based revenue growth driven by the project execution front as we continue to bring projects into service, on-time, and within our budgets. Importantly, we also continue to win meaningful new business which will keep our project execution teams busy for many years to come. The large scale advantage positions we've established continue to generate growth as evidenced by our strong results, with the year-to-date adjusted EBITDA up versus year-to-date 2016 despite the sale of over $3 billion of assets that generated $110 million of EBITDA in the nine months ended September 30, 2016, and the impact of two hurricanes that shut-in volumes from offshore producers. We substantially reduced our direct exposure to commodities. And as a result, our current business' steady growth is both predictable and transparent as it is being driven by consistent fee-based revenue growth under long-term contracts. Our strategic focus on natural gas volumes continues to deliver results. So far in 2017, we placed four of our Big 5 Transco expansion projects into service, including Gulf Trace, Hillabee Phase 1, the Dalton Expansion, and the New York Bay Expansion; with the fifth of the Big 5, the Virginia Southside II project, expected to be placed in service during the fourth quarter of this year. The incremental capacity from our fully contracted Transco expansion projects going in service so far this year reflects a 25% increase in Transco's design capacity. And year-to-date, Transco's transportation revenues have increased $74 million, a 7% increase over last year, and this is even though most of those 17 projects are being placed into service in the last half of this year. So along with our successful project execution, I'm also pleased with how we've strengthened our balance sheet and credit profile, significantly reducing our debt and lowering our overhead expenses. In fact, year-to-date, in 2017 Williams Partners has reduced long-term debt by $2 billion and increased cash by over $1 billion. This reduced debt level and increased cash balance has positioned us to self-fund our attractive slate of growth projects using cash on hand, retained operating cash flow and debt without the need to issue public equity all while maintaining solid investment grade credit metrics and coverage. At the corporate level, WMB has paid down $372 million in debt, and total adjusted overhead expenses have been reduced by about $40 million when compared to the same period in 2016 as we were able to realize overhead reduction in several ways, including moving from five operating areas to three and closing the Oklahoma City office in June of this year. So let's look at the results for the third quarter of 2017, and looking at the GAAP results first. WPZ delivered $259 million in net income in the third quarter of 2017, and WPZ's adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion. Our current business segments, the Atlantic-Gulf, the West, and the Northeast G&P – so those assets that we've retained, the businesses we've retained – combined to increase our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter by about $13 million. However, the full WPZ comparison shows a decrease in our third quarter adjusted EBITDA results versus third quarter of 2016 of $88 million. Of course, this was driven primarily by the absence of over $100 million in adjusted EBITDA contributed from the NGL and Petchem segments earlier, and of course these were sold by the partnership and this included the Geismar Olefins plant which we sold in July of this year, the associated RGP Splitter that we sold in June of this year, and our former Canadian businesses that were sold in September 2016. I would add here that our third quarter 2017 adjusted EBITDA increase from our current businesses includes an unfavorable impact of approximately $8 million from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and contract restructures that lowered the West area results. So those are both contract restructures that we did in the Barnett as well as in the Niobrara area. So we're about to roll out of those or the periods of comparison of those, but those certainly had impacts on the West. Looking to DCF for the third quarter of 2017, Williams Partners generated $669 million in DCF compared with $795 million in DCF for the third quarter of 2016. In addition to the unfavorable change related to the big asset sales, the DCF for third quarter of 2017 has been reduced by $59 million for the removal of non-cash deferred revenue amortizations that were associated with the fourth quarter of 2016 contract restructuring in the Barnett Shale in the Mid-Continent region. So we mentioned this reduction in last quarter's call as well, partially offsetting the unfavorable changes with a $37 million decrease in interest expense. Importantly, WPZ coverage for the quarter came in at 1.17 and puts us at 1.24 year-to-date. The cash retained due to this healthy coverage supports further investment in our high-return growth CapEx portfolio. So now we'll take a look at each of our segments, starting here with the Atlantic-Gulf. The adjusted EBITDA for the Atlantic-Gulf came in at $431 million, a $3 million decrease from the third quarter of 2017. The year-over-year comparisons were impacted by the short-term benefit we had in Q3 of last year where we were gathering and processing gas for a competitor's Pascagoula plant, and so that we had a big lift in the third quarter of last year as you all remember where we pointed out. And in addition to that, in the third quarter we had impact from both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Transco's growth projects contributed $46 million in fee-based revenues incremental, so a very good top line quarter here for Transco, partially offsetting the increased fee-based revenues with increased O&M expenses associated with Transco's required integrity and pipeline maintenance programs. These increased expenses are something we've been expecting and planning for. But I would say, due to timing of work and invoices, the expenses were slightly more concentrated here in the third quarter as usual. So overall, for the year, we're on plan and certainly within our expectations as we provided guidance there, but we did have it pretty lumpy here in the third quarter. A lot of that is just because we have the ability during this part of the year, right before we've got lines tied up for winter service, we've got a period that we can get in and go and get a lot of that work done, and we certainly got a lot of that done here in the third quarter. So now turning to the West. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA came in at $426 million, down by $7 million versus third quarter of 2016. Fee-based revenues were down on an adjusted basis primarily due to contract restructures. And also, EBITDA from JV's was lower due to the Delaware Basin joint venture sale from the first quarter. So recall, in the first quarter of this year we sold our interest in a Delaware Basin JV to Western Gas. The structural impacts were partially offset by continued tight O&M and SG&A expenses, and so really proud of the team continuing to put a lot of pressure on our overhead costs and our own direct O&M costs in the West. Some good news I would tell you for the West, we did see increased volume sequentially. So when we look at the West, gathered volumes up 5% versus 2Q of 2017. You'll recall in 2Q we said we expected to see things turning that way as we were starting to see volumes come back mostly due to the strong volume growth we saw in basins like the Haynesville system, and we are seeing the big volumes in the Haynesville coming on out there and we're seeing this continue in the fourth quarter. I'll provide a little more on that just a moment. Now looking to the Northeast. Overall, for the third quarter, our Northeast adjusted EBITDA increased $26 million compared to the same period last year. The current year benefited from higher proportional EBITDA from our Bradford County JV. Our Northeast volumes were up over 0.5 Bcf a day, a growth rate of over 8% in looking at 3Q of 2017 to 3Q of 2016 on all these operated systems. So this overall gathering growth was driven by both the Bradford Supply Hub and the Susquehanna Supply Hub growth. This growth was partially offset by lower Utica volumes. But again, just like we've talked about a little bit in the West, we were pleased to see the Utica volumes begin to turnaround, with sequential growth from 2Q of this year. And I would just note on that. Most of that turnaround in the Utica is actually on our Flint system which serves the dry Utica. So now, let's look at year-to-date and take a look at what happened in our year-to-date results. In spite of the hurricanes and the removal of $110 million from our NGL-Petchem EBITDA, Williams Partners still delivered year-to-date GAAP net income of $1.21 billion and we delivered adjusted EBITDA year-to-date of $3.32 billion, an $8 million improvement from the corresponding period in 2016, primarily due to increased fee-based revenues, increased commodity margins, and an increase in proportional EBITDA from joint ventures and lower overhead expenses. Adjusted EBITDA from the retained businesses was up $118 million versus the same nine months in 2016 for our retained businesses, and so that is from the Atlantic-Gulf, West and Northeast G&P. So noisy as we got some of these asset sales coming out here on the year-to-date numbers, but overall really pleased to see the way our retained businesses are performing. Year-to-date coverage of WPZ is now 1.24, on the back of $2.1 billion in DCF. And this very solid coverage excludes the $175 million of EBITDA that is revenue amortization associated with the Barnett and Mid-Continent restructuring. So just to remind you on that, we include that earnings in the – obviously, in the EBITDA calculation, we included it in earnings but we pull that out of DCF. So now let's look at some of our recent achievements as we continue to build long-term sustainable growth in the business. Several of our recent achievements contributed directly to our performance this quarter, including two more of our five planned 2017 Transco expansions placed in service during the quarter; those would be Hillabee and Dalton. And on Atlantic Sunrise, we started construction and have already placed a portion of Atlantic Sunrise into early service on September 1 of this year, providing about 400,000 dekatherms a day of firm transportation service on Transco's existing mainline facilities, and of course that serve delivery points as far south as Choctaw County, Alabama. So we're really excited to be starting to see the Transco system turn around and be able to deliver volumes to the south. And I can tell you, that's very much needed as we're seeing a lot of demand growth occur in the southeast on our system. We are seeing exciting spurt of growth in the Haynesville. In August, we placed into service additional CO2 treating capacity. And as a result of customer activity and our increased treating capacity, volumes on the Haynesville system grew to 1.45 Bcf a day here in late October, and we now expect to see volume growth of over 30% this year in the Haynesville, making it our fastest growing basin this year across the Williams assets. Also, as many of you know, we also recently won new acreage dedications from Southwestern in West Virginia, and we agreed to provide up to 660 MMcf a day of processing capacity. And by the end of the third quarter, we were already processing an incremental 100 MMcf a day of Marcellus wet gas from this new dedication. And with the addition of this 100 MMcf a day, the exit rate for our 3Q 2017 OVM processing was approximately 540 MMcf a day, and Southwestern is rapidly growing their wet Marcellus volumes on this dedicated acreage, and we're really thrilled to have the opportunity to help them maximize the value of this prolific acreage. We've got a great relationship with Southwestern and the teams are working very well to maximize the value of that acreage. We also enjoyed significant achievements that we expect to contribute adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. The Transco New York Bay Expansion project was placed in service here on October 9, and this was the fourth of our five Transco planned expansion projects. Transco continue to push new expansion opportunities forward as well, receiving a favorable environmental assessment on the Gulf Connector Project and applying for a FERC certificate for Rivervale South to Market, a new fully contracted 190 MMcf a day Transco expansion to New York and New Jersey markets. It's just another project that is supplying both power demand and replacing fuel oil with cleaner and more affordable natural gas in that region. And now let's look at what's coming soon. Our commitment to continued growth is highlighted on this slide. Again, Virginia Southside II is our fifth Transco expansion project this year, and so we're really excited to see that conclude and looking forward to that coming on some time here in the fourth quarter. We placed Phase 1 of the Garden State Project in service in September as well. That's kind of a little bit of a bonus project on top of the five, and we will be placing that full project into service in the second quarter of next year. So that project is going well too. We briefly touched on our Southeastern Trail Project last quarter. We were pleased with the results of a successful binding open season. However, we are pursuing an even more strategic opportunity that will serve those open season customers and provide a strategic expansion that will serve the broader industry with direct connection of low-cost reserves to these growing demand centers. So we certainly heard from the market that they needed the additional supplies, and we're trying to utilize that demand to make even more strategic expansions. So certainly not going to step over the top of the great opportunity we have there, but we are taking our time here to make sure that we make the very most we can out of that very valuable southbound expansion capacity on Transco. In the Northeast, our big Susquehanna Supply Hub expansion remains on schedule, with an expected in-service date in late 2017. This expansion done for Cabot should drive higher volumes in Susquehanna, even ahead of the Atlantic Sunrise project. And this area just keeps on delivering growth, and we are already planning the next big expansion for this area. In Wyoming, we were able to bring more volumes on to our Wamsutter system after placing our Chain Lake compressor station into service in October. And this is another project that was done on-time, and actually this one under budget to meet the growing demand of a key customer there in the Washakie Basin. And we're already exploring additional expansion opportunities for Chain Lake with two other customers in the region, and this is really an interesting area where we're seeing an emerging new play be developed in an old field in that area that was originally completed with vertical completions and a real opportunity up there now for horizontal application to that area. With regard to guidance, our guidance for 2017 EBITDA and DCF remains firm, as does our previous distribution and dividend growth rate. We plan to announce our 2018 financial guidance with our fourth quarter 2017 financial results, and of course that will be in the first part of 2018. So as I wrap up, I'd emphasize we're pleased with the execution and our clear line of sight on long-term steady growth. After substantially reducing our direct exposure to commodities, our current business' steady growth is being driven by consistent fee-based revenue growth via long-term contracts, and we expect 2018 and 2019 to be exciting years as we finally see the bottlenecks in the Northeast clear to let the value of our long-term strategy be realized both in the Northeast and on our Atlantic-Gulf systems. So really pleased with the way things are looking right now in that area. And then finally I want to, again, thank Don Chappel for his great work at Williams and I wish him well in retirement, and I welcome John Chandler to this call as our CFO. And with that, I thank you very much and we'll turn it over for questions.
Operator:
And our first question comes from Jean Salisbury with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning. The deal with Southwestern was much more incremental volume in that area than what I had originally modeled. Without getting into too much customer details, can you speak to whether you expect tariffs on that contract to be generally in the range of your existing tariffs there or if you had to take a material reduction to get the deal done?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good question, Jean. I would tell you that the pricing on that was pretty similar to our earlier pricing. I think the area that we did provide some incentive on was for the Utica volumes. But we do have a great service offer up there and we certainly offered that because we have existing capacity there with OVM. So I would just tell you we're very pleased with the pricing on that and provides us a very high incremental return in that area. Having said that, of course we've invested a lot of money in the first place up there so you would expect those higher returns. So overall, I think we priced it about like we expected. It's just that we've got so much latent capacity to use there, that we've got a big incremental initial cash flows that come off of that business as a result of the available capacity we have in the area.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
That makes sense. So in terms of the EBITDA per Mcf range, it's sort of similar to what you had said at the Analyst Day?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes. No change. That is a positive impact of what we showed there at Analyst Day.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great, and that makes sense. And then as a follow-up. I know you probably can't comment too much more on Southeastern Trail. But is the way to think about it, that you have enough commitments for the low end of your volume options on the project and in what you're working on, is incremental volumes that maybe would go further on the system as well?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Maybe another way to think about it, I would just say we have a very attractive project that just utilizes the capacity on the system, and one that certainly rivals any other project that we have on the system from a return standpoint. But we really want to make sure, because there's very limited amount of that very precious capacity coming south, and the more capacity we do the more expensive it gets, and so it's kind of a reverse economies of scale on that just because it requires more and more capital investment as we expand that capacity. And so we want to make sure that we're getting everything we can out of that investment, including strategic benefits that would include connections to low-cost reserves. And so a great work by the team. We're really working well with a number of players on that. I would tell you I'm pretty optimistic, but the good news is we have the Southeastern Trail project if we choose to go forward with that. That is in hand and we're prepared to do that if we can't get the other deals done on a timely enough basis.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. That makes sense. So if you choose to do a larger volume project that would have higher costs, that you need to charge the same tariff to everyone, is that the balance that you're working on?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. It's a little more complex than that, but that's probably about as far as I want to go with it.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. No, it's fair. Thanks a lot. That's all for me.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Don, good luck in retirement. John, welcome aboard.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
I wanted to start off with the O&M. It seems like there was a bit of an uptick this quarter in the Northeast and in the Atlantic. And I just wanted to see if there was anything to this, if this is one-time in nature or seasonal or is this kind of a new run rate. Any color you can share there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Let me turn that to our COO, Michael Dunn.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. First in the Northeast, a part of that was the true-up of a tax issue, and so I wouldn't say that that was obviously a run rate issue. But the majority of that Northeast was a portion of that as well as some additional work that we were doing for landslide mitigation that's not typical, and that's pretty lumpy work depending on when we see something we need to go out there and fix. So that's really what drove the issues in the Northeast. On the Atlantic-Gulf, and specifically on Transco, Alan touched on that earlier in his comment in regard to our integrity work that's underway there, and typically we see those costs every year rise in the third quarter because that's our opportunity to get the work done. And like a lot of our peers in the industry as well as our customer companies, there's a lot of integrity work underway across the U.S. on the natural gas infrastructure, and a lot of that's driven by either the regulations or the records reviews that a lot of companies are doing. And once you find issues within your records, and a lot of these pipes are quite old, and when you research those records you find that maybe you need to go out and do some hydro tests at some areas where you're not certain of the records covering the entire area where it was originally hydro tested. And so we've taken on a lot of that work this year and we would expect to see more of that work next year as we continue to go through those records as well as just our ongoing integrity management programs that we're undertaking across the assets. And that's really what we're seeing on the Transco system. I would say that quarter three is typically our higher quarter for spend, and you certainly can't extrapolate that across four quarters of a year to come up with an annualized number. It's pretty difficult if you look at our history, higher than third quarter.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks for that. And I just wanted to touch base on the Central Penn Line a little bit more. And any more thoughts or details you can provide around timing and if that could be something that comes online sooner or later or just any other details as far as that kind of mid-2018 in service I think you've talked about.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We're really pleased right now that we've started construction on the Central Penn Line, which is the key greenfield infrastructure for Atlantic Sunrise, and we are targeting at mid-2018 for completion of the work on that pipeline as well as our compressor stations. And I will tell you that obviously weather is a big factor there with the winter construction for the pipeline and compressor station, but we're off to a good start so far and we're still targeting, as far as our project teams are concerned, a mid-2018 in service date for the completion of the work. And then we'll be commissioning activities that occur after the mechanical completion of pipelines as well as the compressor stations. So as you are probably well aware, we typically risk-adjust the revenues that you would see coming through in our forecast. But right now, we're marching forward for a mid-2018 in service date for the facilities that we have underway right now.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks. And then just one last one. I was curious on your thoughts in what you're seeing with Northeast basis differentials and specifically some of the commentary we've been hearing from some of the producers regarding a potential volume curtailment given these tough differentials. Any thoughts you could share there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We certainly did see some degree of curtailment like we often do during the shoulder months, and prices certainly were very depressed because there was very little local load. So if you think about what drives the volumes inside the circle, if you will, or within that region, the weather pattern was very mild there, and so very little local load there this third quarter which will obviously put a lot of pressure on basis. I think in addition to that, we had a lot of people building up reserve and expecting Rover to be on schedule, on-time, and that's hard to plan for when it moved as dramatically back as it did. So you probably had a lot of capital investment ahead of that that was too late to turn it back. So we probably had a little more production, a little more gas-on-gas competition, without any real exit from the area, just kind of moved the circle out a little bit but not really in each market. And so I think that it's going to take some of the projects that Colombia has and then ultimately Atlantic Sunrise, and of course finally when Rover gets in the first quarter, gets out into some new markets, to really see that ease. However, we always see here in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, if we get some normalized weather, we will see the basis differential flatten out just because the local load will be coming on. And in addition to that, I would say we are seeing some new power plant load that'll be coming on next year. And so those are all positive things that are moving us forward towards better basis differential, but certainly the third quarter is pretty painful and we did see some volume shut-ins on our systems.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's all very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks. First question is just coming back to the Atlantic Sunrise and the Central Penn Line now that you've gotten into construction a bit. I wonder if you can fine-tune your CapEx assumptions. We've thought of this as around $2.6 billion I think on a gross basis. Is that a good number for the project?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We still are holding at that number. We obviously keep some contingency within our project forecast to remedy any situations or issues that arise during construction. But we believe that's still a pretty good number.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. And then I know you're just starting to get this in service. But as you think about the 42-inch line I believe, is there an ability to increase the capacity beyond the 1.7 Bcf a day that you've put in there, and what are your thoughts on doing that as you see the demand to get out of the basin?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
You know, as usual, we'll wait and see if there are enough demand for projects. We do have some other projects we're looking at as well, expanding out of the basin, and so I think it is a little bit to be determined. So if you think about other projects like Constitution, probably be determined, that'll probably be the next expansion. And so I think people would kind of wait and see on that. We also have another couple of other projects that we haven't provided any announcement on that we're working on, that could serve to get volumes out of the basin as well. So I'd say those probably go first and, as you know, we get the existing project we're working on built before we talk about expansions on another one, and so that's where we stand today. But in terms of its expandability, certainly physically there is expansion opportunity on the system.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. So that's helpful. And then I'd love a little bit more color please on the West. You mentioned the Haynesville really picking up and sounds like momentum into the fourth quarter. Is that the main driver of that 5% increase in volumes? And then how do we think about, call it, unit economics I guess if the Haynesville is where you're going to see an uptick as we move into 2018. Would that be positive or negative to your overall unit margins there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great question. I would say in the West that the Haynesville is probably just slightly above our average on unit margins against all of our other West gathering business. And so it's a very attractive basin for us to see growth, especially at the level it's been growing, so that's very positive. The other part of your question was other areas. I think we had five of our western areas that we saw sequential growth in, and so we are seeing some turnaround in some of those areas. I would say the areas that probably we would expect to see growth – have the most impact would probably be the Haynesville, the Eagle Ford, and the Wamsutter area, particularly as we get into 2018 on Wamsutter because there's a lot of activity going on in that basin that will turn that around as well. So but I think that's probably about the best explanation I can give you on that. So overall though, I think as we mentioned last quarter, we were seeing some of those areas bottom out and start to turn around, and that's exactly what happened.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Great. Very helpful. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company. Please go ahead.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. I just wanted to check on the Geismar supply contracts. It's a little bit tough to parse out through the financials. Should we look for that to start up kind of on July 6 with the commencement or the closing of the sale? And if so, can you guys quantify what the impact was there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I do not have that number for you. I think you can call Brett or John to get a little more detail on that. But you are correct, that that actual contract would've started there upon the sale of that asset. So, but bottom line, that plant is running well and we're serving with ethane volumes. Obviously a choppy quarter because of the hurricane, and we did have some impact on a couple of our pump stations on that system due to the hurricane. But overall, the relationship with NOVA is going very well and we're providing them a lot of ethane.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Okay. And I think you just alluded to kind of the 2018-plus outlook. But just in terms of the quarter-over-quarter step up on the processing side of things, was there a particular basin that really resulted in that, whether it's Niobrara, Piceance or was that more of a general uplift across the systems?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, yeah. You named two of the areas that saw some of that uplift. And as well as I mentioned, looking broader, OVM obviously saw a pretty good step up as well as the Southwestern volumes got added during the third quarter.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So for the Western segment processing volumes, mostly those two in terms of Piceance...?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, Piceance. We also saw WPX volumes in the San Juan Basin lift up a little bit as well. So we also saw some positive processing business from WPX as volumes raising in the San Juan Basin as well, so pretty well across the board. We saw a pretty good movement. Probably the one area that we didn't see much increase was in the Southwest Wyoming area, which is at our Opal facility.
Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Great. All right. Thanks for that. I think I'll leave it there.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Please go ahead.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
I was just wondering if we can sort of talk – I realize you haven't put out a 2018 guidance and so forth. But I was wondering if you can sort of talk about the board discussions with respect to returning capital to shareholders? You get to a point where your leverage gets in line to be able to do so. And I was wondering if you're looking at dividend increases at WMB or are you also considering potentially buybacks of WMB or even WPZ?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Let me have John Chandler take that, Shneur.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think the answer is, yes. I mean, we obviously are generating today around $100 million of excess cash at WMB above our dividend. And as we look forward, we have about $300 million, I think, or $400 million on a revolver, so we'll continue to pay that down over the next several quarters. And then as we look towards our dividend growth in the future and the excess cash we'll have at the WMB level, I think our guidance is the same that we've given in the past that, yeah, we'll look towards buying in WPZ units, even perhaps co-investing in projects if those opportunities existed or buying in WMB or a dividend increase. With all of those things, I think are on the table. We haven't carved any of those out. We, of course, are watching tax code changes too, and we don't expect that to happen until quite a distance in the future as we think about dividend increases. So that would kind of, I think, control what we did on the dividend front, but I don't think we've ruled out any of those options that you mentioned.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Cool. And then just as a quick follow-up question. Do you guys see an opportunity to expand Overland Pass either on a small scale with pumps or something much larger in scale?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. There's a lot of new production coming on both in our Wamsutter area, in the Niobrara, both the Wyoming and DJ portion of the Niobrara, and of course the Bakken volumes that ONEOK gathers as well. So a lot of incremental demand for NGL capacity out of the area. And if you add to that an expectation of the ethane market and demand market growing, and expecting them to have to pull on ethane from these regions that today, while they have ethane recovery capability, there's not ethane takeaway capacity out of the area because the NGL lines are full. I think all of that leads to some expansion in the area, and certainly Overland Pass is very well-positioned to capture that expansion. So yes, a lot of activity going on on that front, and I think a lot of people are a bit surprised by the amount of volumes that are showing up coming out of these areas.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much. Really appreciate the color, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi, everyone. I actually just want to start with some clarification questions. In the West, all of the wet areas, with the exception of Opal, contributed to the increase in processing volumes?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well, I think we were talking earlier – Christine, we were talking sequentially.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Right, sequentially.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Let us provide some detail for you on that, Christine. I think the bottom line, we did see the Piceance pick up, we have seen the Niobrara picking up. And looking at kind of beginning of the quarter and to end of the quarter, the pretty dramatic increase in the Northeast as we mentioned. I realize your question is just to the West. But, really, I think the majority of the increases in the West were pretty moderate in terms of processing volume, and that's with the exception of the Southwest Wyoming area.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then with the compressor station coming on in Wyoming and the opportunities to work with two other producers as you mentioned during prepared remarks, should we think that the G&P volumes here, like in the Rockies area, is going to continue to increase or is it just going to maybe stabilize decline so that it's flat? How should we think about that?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Well if you're talking about overall West volumes, so maybe just narrowing it to the Wamsutter area, we certainly expect some increase going into 2018 there and, importantly, a lot of liquids volumes on both the condensate side, which we gather, as well as the gas and NGL side; there'll be quite a bit of growth there. If you broaden that question to the overall West, then I do think that we'll continue to see volume growth in the Haynesville even though we're going to get up on limitations of our capacity there pretty quickly in the Haynesville. We'll be looking for expansion opportunities on top of that. We're going to see the Eagle Ford continue to grow, and we are seeing growth in the Piceance as well and the Niobrara. Of course, that is offset by places like the Barnett and the Mid-Continent and, to a lesser degree, probably continued decline in the San Juan Basin as well. So I think that's the picture I would offer you there. But overall I mean, the Haynesville volume growth is very impressive. I wouldn't expect to see another 30% growth next year just because we're going to be so tapped out on capacity on our side, but we would expect growth from 2017 to 2018.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And then I don't know if there's much more you could provide. But on the Southwestern deal, can you just give some background on how did that came together? Was that a little bit of a competitive process or did one of you approach the other? And can you give us an idea of how many more opportunities like that are still available?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Well we already have a very extensive relationship with Southwestern there because recall that was – a lot of that acreage was former Chesapeake acreage, and so we were already gathering a lot of that acreage but we weren't processing it. And so because recall Access didn't have a processing arm, and so that gas was gathered into competitors' processing systems. And so our relationship with Southwestern that we've been working on, where we reform contracts out there and made them much more attractive contracts than what they had under the former Access-Chesapeake arrangement that we announced earlier in the year, I would say started that relationship off on the right foot. We also provide services to Southwestern up in Northeastern Pennsylvania, and we've been very successful there helping them find excess capacity in that area as well. So I would tell you, our teams have worked really hard. They have a very dependable and reliable relationship with Southwestern, and I would say they form some contracts that are very aligned to both parties' interest. But it really spurred off of the fact that we had the opportunity to serve them and serve them well on the gathering side already is really what enabled that relationship to expand.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then just last question. Overland Pass. Can you remind us what the contract structure is there? Is that just based on a nomination basis?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
You mean in terms of who gets curtailed and who doesn't?
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Right. I just couldn't remember, like, when you guys started up that pipeline, if it was underpinned by some, like, level of MVCs or is it...?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. It's a tariff contract, and so it has FERC tariffs on it. And it has discounted rates from the original dedications that both ONEOK and Williams enjoy. In terms of the way the capacity is allocated, it looks back to prior periods to establish your allocation. So basically build allocation capacity with your flow rates, and so whoever's been in it the longest with the most volumes and the longest has the capacity allocation.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks and good morning, everyone. Just a few follow-up questions to what has already been asked. First on Overland Pass, my recollection was that to expand that system you wouldn't really need pumps. It would be a loop of the pipeline because of how the pipeline is geographically located. Is that correct?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Generally, that is correct, Danilo. That's right. There's a little bit but there's very little available. It's running pretty full already.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Do you have a sense, Alan, for what the investment opportunities could be for an expansion?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
We haven't put that out there. And I would tell you, there's a variety of options that our teams are pursuing right now. But it's a sizable investment but we haven't put a number out there on that.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
And to the extent that that would go forward here, you would still be able to self fund your pro rata share with that growth?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. And as a follow-up, I guess an extension of that question. Financially, you seem to have a lot of optionality here. Shneur I think asked a question with respect to capital allocation. Beyond considering a dividend increase or buybacks, what are you guys thinking with respect to M&A?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I would just say we've got such a great portfolio right now of high-return investment opportunities, that anything we do has got to compete with that. And so I think we've got our heads down very focused on developing the business that we do have. I would say that in areas like the Northeast, there is a lot of value in the consolidation of some of the joint ventures in the Northeast and we continue to look at that as we have for quite some time, I would say. And we continue to have a bid-ask spread between us and the various partners up there. But ultimately, I think that's something that we would certainly like to see happen but we're going to be very disciplined in what that CapEx investment is. But I'd say that that is very right in terms of that happening. You've got motivated sellers and certainly a lot of value in consolidation on our side, particularly in terms of the reduction of capital investment required to serve the growing volumes in the area.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thank you so much. Those are my questions.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you, Danilo.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Eric Genco with Citi. Please go ahead.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning. Just as a clarification. You talk about the buybacks and such, and you mentioned during your comments that you're generating enough cash, you don't see yourself needing to access the equity markets. I know that's been the case for 2017. Is that something you foresee continuing into 2018 and beyond or is that too much of a stretch for right now?
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
No, that is exactly – and previously we've said for the next several years. But I can tell you, and looking at our long range planning, we don't see a need for that. So we think we've got a growth rate that's very sustainable with the combination of both retained capital and debt capacity while maintaining some strong credit mix. So feeling very good about the capitalization right now and continuing to fund the growth that we have in front of us.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. And if I think about spending in terms of next year, and I recognize you may not want to give too much detail, but we've got basically the remainder of Atlantic Sunrise, we may see a start up of some of the Northeast supply enhancement CapEx I would guess – that's another big project – and then you had talked in the Analyst Day slides about a potential $500 million of annual growth capital in the Northeast. With the agreement with Southwestern Energy, is that something in the $500 million range next year do you think? And how does that fall out? Is there a sense that you can give us as far as maybe a dip in CapEx or how that looks going into 2018?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
We're not providing guidance on that. But I would just tell you what we provided at Analyst Day, both in terms of those continued opportunities as well as the opportunities in the Northeast, continue to be pretty in line with what we're seeing in terms of growth opportunities for the future, so kind of steady as she goes and no big surprises there. I will tell you that we're in a very nice position to be allocating to the very best capital opportunities, and we're maintaining very high returns as a result of that. And so we do have a whole lot of opportunities, but we're being pretty disciplined about what we're investing in.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
And then I guess lastly, I guess in the timeline, and maybe this is just sort of a theoretical question, but you mentioned about next year and how you're thinking about tax reform and how that could impact some of your decisions. At some point, do you reach a point where you say okay, we can wait on Washington and see how they come out with tax reform or are there options at some point in terms of a timeline where you say we might want to take an action and we don't necessarily want to wait for full clarification from Washington on tax reform?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. I think in all cases, using tax code today and the amount of capital spend that we've got, we've got a fairly long window still, a period that we don't view that we'll have cash taxes at WMB. So I think we've got a long period that we can kind of wait to see this unfold. So hopefully that answers – we're not motivated to do anything quickly on that front.
Eric C. Genco - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Shere Craig (sic) [Craig Shere] with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Alan, you've talked about a number of incremental growth opportunities kind of in line with Analyst Day. Are you still saying in total with what's already disclosed and what is kind of out there on the horizon and the aggregates of 7 times EBITDA multiple on all the pending projects out, say, through the end of the decade?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes. I would say the returns that we've talked about on Transco, in that range, and as well the very high incremental return I'm always quick to point out in the Northeast because we can't forget about the capital we had to invest to get those opportunities. But that is continuing to be the case in these regions where we have very strong competitive advantages. So I don't really see that changing at all right now.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. And can you comment on the potential size and timing of additional West segment Wamsutter system expansion?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would say the Chain Lake expansion that we did was relatively small; I think it was right around $50 million. And so I would tell you the plans are getting bigger out there for some of the players out there. Their appetites are getting pretty big, and so we're watching that very closely and we're beginning to plan alternatives with the producers out there in the area. So I do think there's going to be continued investments of probably that size and larger as we expand the facility. But remember, we have a very large condensate handling business there already that can handle a lot of that, but we also have a lot of latent capacity at our Wamsutter processing plant. So just like in the Northeast where we've got these higher incremental returns, we're enjoying the same kind of thing in the Northeast because we have that latent capacity sitting there at our Echo Springs processing complex.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
I know you all asked the FERC to kind of take some proactive steps on Constitution. Any updates there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Continued great work by our team. Chad Zamarin, who has been heading up our efforts there with the federal agencies, has had some very productive meetings and continuing to push the ball forward on that. And so I would just say stay tuned. It's a pure upside to our plan, but we're encouraged by some of the commentary that we've got coming out of there. But still a relatively long put when you're having to fight a state as hard as we're going to have to fight that state to win that battle. So plenty of fight left in this dog and I think we're well-positioned for what we've got. We will have a fight I suspect.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
In terms of timing to see how some of these steps kind of unfold, are you thinking that by first quarter we could have more substantive detail?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes, I think that's a realistic timing if not before to know kind of the next step there anyway.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. And last question. Can you speak to the impact across your system from the recognizing of extremely nominal direct commodity exposures? But there's been much stronger propane pricing and we're hearing word of ethane recovery just starting to kick in in the fourth quarter here. Can you speak to the impacts of those across your system?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. On the propane pricing, I would say that we do have some pretty attractive hedges in place here for the fourth quarter, and we've got a little bit going into the first quarter, propanes and some of our heavies. So I think we've got pretty good margins coming through on that. But as you know, it's just gotten to be such a relatively small piece of our overall business, that's not all that big. On the ethane front, I think we have about 50,000 barrels a day that we could be recovering that is not unrecovered. But as I mentioned earlier, some of that is back behind pipelines that are constrained like Overland Pass. Some of it is not, however, in the Gulf Coast, and so we could see some pull through. In fact we are seeing some ethane recovery but I think the margin will just be as high as it needs to get to pull the ethane in until we see ethane get really short, which I think we could see, and then it's going to have to drive a margin high enough to pull in and build capacity on things like Overland Pass for those barrels. So I suspect that's going to take a little bit for the market to really realize it's going to have to pay up for that ethane before it comes on. So we'd expect some to and fro in the ethane market as it tries to grab more capacity or more productive capacity. So some exposure but I would say we've got hedges on kind of in the mid-80 range on propanes here in the fourth quarter that will dampen some of that dollar of propane that you've seen it spike up to here and there.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. And just a final follow-on to that. More fundamentally from a volumetric standpoint, subject of course to the debottlenecking process in the Northeast, are you starting to see increasing interest from producer customers in the wet gas Utica and Marcellus areas that could kind of feed that very long-term opportunity discussed at Analyst Day?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes. I think the areas that we're seeing right now that's most focused on is the dry Marcellus, the dry Utica, and the wet Marcellus. But probably I would say in order of economics right now because of the NGL whip that you mentioned just a while ago, we're seeing a lot of push into the wet Marcellus right now. And of course, the dry Marcellus is just such a terrific resource up in the Northeast, that we're going to continue to see that area grab any kind of capacity it can just because the margins are so high on that. I would say the one area that we've seen pull back a little bit is the rich Utica or the wet Utica is the one area we've seen pull back a little bit relative to the other opportunities.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. Appreciate the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Just a follow-up on I guess the Southwestern contract. It sounds like you're using existing infrastructure to meet that contract right now. But do you think there is a potential to add, I guess, additional processing or frac capacity to meet that contract as volumes ramp?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'm going have Michael Dunn take that one, Sharon.
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning. At our Oak Grove facility, we currently have one TXP unit there and a portion of a second one that was built a while back, so we have latent capacity in the first one that will be filled and we do think that TXP-2 will be under construction sometime next year as well to handle that capacity. So there is some incremental CapEx there but a portion of that's already been spent with the portion that was already built, so I would see certainly some capital expenditures contributed to that effort. There's still capacity in some of our frac there, so I think we're okay for now on that in that regard, but certainly would expect to see some processing capacity expansion at Oak Grove next year.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And TXP-2, is that another 200 MMcf?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Volume? Yes.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. And just for the quarter, it looks like Northeast's CapEx ramped up pretty significantly sequentially. Was there a specific project tied to that spending?
Michael G. Dunn - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. That's primarily some of the work we're doing for Southwestern with the agreement we had earlier this year. But the majority of it is for the Genesis expansion up in Northeast Pennsylvania to support Cabot in regard to their production coming online next year. So we would expect that that ramps up obviously in the fourth quarter this year as well. Just finishing up that work. We've got a couple of compressor stations under construction there as well as some pipeline interconnects and pipeline systems being built to support that expansion.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Sharon.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Alex Kania with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Alex S. Kania - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. I guess this question is in regard to the West and related to the asset impairment I guess for the 10-Q. There is some discussion on a potential sale of some kind of assets in that segment. I was just wondering if you could give a little bit more color on that?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
John, would you take that one?
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. I don't think we'd contemplate selling anything right now. We were approached I guess I should say on some assets in that market that made us look at some type curves again and re-evaluate the value of those Mid-Con assets. One comment I do want to make in that the write-down was a $1 billion write-down, but our estimate of fair value has not changed materially quarter-to-quarter for those assets. Those assets were actually written up, the book value of those assets were written up back in the 2014 to 2015 timeframe when we acquired the Access assets. Got it at a very different pricing environment, and of course that's materially changed today. So actually, during the quarter our fair value estimates for these assets have changed very insignificantly. What has changed is the overall view of undiscounted cash flows, and they fell a little bit below our carrying value that the assets carried on for our books, which made us write them down to fair value. So I just want to make it clear. We don't have a change of view relative to the assets for the quarter that they changed by $1 billion.
Alex S. Kania - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
At the end (01:04:30) cash flow. It's just happen to fall below that book value during the quarter.
Alex S. Kania - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. That makes sense. Thanks.
John D. Chandler - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we have no more questions at this time. I would like to turn the program back over to Alan.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks everybody for the great questions. Really excited to see the kind of top line growth we saw this quarter from our retained businesses and very excited about the growth opportunities that are in front of us right now, and look forward to a strong fourth quarter here as well as we continue to see the projects that we've been putting online continue to contribute. So thanks for joining us and have a good day.
Operator:
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at anytime.
Executives:
John Porter - Head, IR Alan Armstrong - CEO, President & Inside Director Phillip Wright - Former SVP of Corporate Development Micheal Dunn - COO & Executive VP Donald Chappel - CFO & Senior VP
Analysts:
Jean Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Charles Barber - JPMorgan Chase & Co. Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI Craig Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research Christine Cho - Barclays PLC Eric Genco - Citigroup
Operator:
Welcome to the Williams and Williams Partners Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thanks, Alicia. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our CFO, Don Chappel; and our Chief Operating Officer, Micheal Dunn. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we reconciled with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation materials. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well thank you, John and welcome everyone. I'm going to keep my remarks fairly brief this morning so we can move quickly to your questions. I'd like to start by thanking those of you who attended our recent Analyst Day event. It really was great to reengage with a lot of folks and to layout our solid plans for Williams in the course we've chartered to deliver on this low-risk, sustainable growth and a very focused and clear strategy that we continue to execute against. I was also pleased to introduce our new COO, Micheal Dunn, at Analyst Day. He's really hit the ground running and is making a big impact on our operations through his commitment to execution and accountability across the organization. Within Micheal's organization, we recently announced the appointment of Frank Ferazzi as Senior Vice President of Atlantic-Gulf. And Frank replaces Rory Miller, who announced his retirement earlier this year. And of course, Frank's previous role was running our Eastern Interstate. So we've got a nice continuity there of leadership in that area. More recently, we've added some - another key player to our leadership team. Chad Zamarin came onboard as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development in late June. And Chad joined us from Cheniere and is focused squarely on the opportunities and larger strategic initiatives that we can drive from an enterprise level. So really excited to have Chad join us here and his energy level and he's got a lot of wood to chop and he's getting right after it. So excited about the new energy we've got here at the senior leadership team. We're also pleased with our efforts to drive cost out of the business, continually improve our project execution and we've made some strides on further improving our operational safety metrics. On July 6, we completed the sale of Geismar to NOVA Chemicals. That sale, along with the sale of the Canadian assets last year, removed a significant amount of commodity risk from our business, as you're well aware. And we now stand at around 97% of our gross margins coming from predictable fee-based sources that are aligned with natural gas volumes. This move also allows us to streamline the support services around the organization, as we really have narrowed our lines of business and we continue to grow scale within these fewer lines of business. So a lot of opportunity that we're seeing to really get focused on the natural gas transmission gathering and processing side of the business and getting some of those business that were more ancillary to that really does allow us to narrow the services that we provide around the organization. We also - we did use a portion of the proceeds in the quarter to pay - sorry, just more recently here, to pay off our $850 million term loan. And of course further strengthening our balance sheet which we've made tremendous progress on here in the last 12 months. The team executing on the Geismar sale did a great job and I really want to recognize their tremendous efforts; really excited about the way that transaction was executed by our team. We're also crisply executing on our 2017 project commitments. You'll remember, we talked about our key 5 projects that are coming online in 2017. Of course, that was Gulf Trace, Hillabee Phase I, Dalton, New York Bay and the Virginia Southside II project. We're chipping away at all these important projects. As you know, Gulf Trace came into service in the first quarter. And Hillabee Phase I which provides all of the supply for Sabal Trail, came online in early July. And then just this week on August 1, the Dalton capacity was placed in service to serve northern Georgia markets from supply points at the northern end of Transco. So really an exciting project there in that we're really starting to now provide capacity moving for the northern end into these growing southeast markets. And so more of those to come. But really excited to see that project come along - come online. Our line of sight of the future growth is evident as we target the second half of '17. And the in-service dates coming up for Virginia Southside II, New York Bay and also, we'll get Garden State Phase I in this year as well, it looks like. So in summary, if you kind of think about the $1.4 billion roughly in projects that we were going to be placing in service - in full-service, about 20% of that came on in the first half of '17. And now another roughly 55% in this July/August time frame. And then of course, the balance of that will be in the second half of '17. So great job by our teams. That is a lot of work that's been going on to execute on that with plenty of resistance in a lot of these areas, but the team's doing a great job of executing in the face of that. So let's look at the results for the second quarter of '17 now. We met or exceeded our business performance expectations in all 3 remaining businesses. And although the results were somewhat offset by Geismar's continued outage and lower margins, in fact, the go-forward business which excludes the NGL & Petchem, was up 6.6% over 2Q of '16 on an adjusted EBITDA basis. As you probably know, we will not have any continued operations or assets to be reported in the NGL-Petchem sector other than what will come through in the 3 - third quarter here as we wrapped up the closing for Geismar in third quarter. So really, the go-forward, you'll see those 3 business units and just kind of the tailings of the NGL & Petchem business there. Looking at - looking first at our GAAP results. WPZ delivered $320 million in net income in the second quarter. And once again, we demonstrated the long term benefits of our strategy as we delivered year-over-year growth on our adjusted EBITDA measure for now the 15th consecutive quarter. So a very nice drum beat we've got going there and we've got confidence in being able to continue that for many quarters to come. WPZ's adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion was a $39 million increase over '16, primarily due to increased fee-based revenues and an increase in proportional EBITDA from joint ventures. Distributable cash flow for the quarter was $698 million which was down over the second quarter of '16, primarily from the planned removal of $58 million in noncash deferred revenue amortization associated with our fourth quarter 2016 contract, where we restructured the Barnett Shale and some of the Mid-Continent region business as well. This is nothing new. We mentioned this reduction on our last quarter's call as well. But just to remind you, that amortization is flowing through our EBITDA, but we remove it on the DCF. Importantly, the WPZ coverage for the quarter came in at 1.22 and this puts us at 1.27 for the year-to-date. The cash retained due to this healthy coverage supports further investment in our leading growth portfolio. So now we'll take a look at each of our segments. We'll start with the Atlantic-Gulf, where continued strong performance, coupled with expected growth for the balance of the year, gives us confidence we'll achieve our prior guidance on both adjusted EBITDA and DCF. And our adjusted EBITDA for Atlantic-Gulf came in at $462 million, an increase of around $94 million or almost 26% over the first quarter of 2016. The increase was primarily driven by an $88 million higher fee-based revenues coming from increased volumes through our Gulfstar One due to the Gunflint tie-back which happened in the third quarter of last year and stronger volumes from Tubular Bells and of course other Transco expansions that just keep coming online and into service and the steady drumbeat of those projects. This really is another proof point of our ability to deliver predictable, sustained growth from markets along Transco and further demonstration of our leading position out in the Gulf. In the West, gathered volumes were up approximately 4% versus the first quarter of 2017 after we adjusted for the Marcellus for Permian transaction. So after taking the DBJV impact out of there, that gives you that 4%. The seasonal issues experienced in the first quarter this year have lifted and we continue to place a sharp focus on cost and operational discipline throughout our Western operations which now includes the central - what was previously the central area as well. For the quarter, our adjusted EBITDA came in at $372 million, down versus 2Q of '16, primarily due to the Barnett and Niobrara contract restructures; and the Niobrara, that contract restructure really just affected how we record revenues in the Niobrara and in the DBJV sale and our lower volumes in that area. The declines were partially offset by a $14 million reduction in O&M and SG&A expenses. So really proud of the way the team continues to really push on the cost in the West. And now going over to Northeast G&P, where volumes increased in our Susquehanna and Ohio River Systems but declined on our rich Utica systems compared to 2Q '16. We talked last quarter about being at an inflection point on the Utica volume increases and we continue to expect a pick-up through the rest of the year. Specifically, we've seen pretty dramatic declines in the West - in the wet Utica, sorry, over the last 5 quarters, but expect the Chesapeake rigs to move back in and begin to offset previous declines later this year and into 2018. So quite a bit of movement going on within the Northeast and even within the Utica zone. But I'll remind you, relative to the wet Utica that while we have confidence in the wet Utica volumes coming back here as we're seeing the activity picking up. If they don't return, our fees would increase because those wet Utica volumes are under a cost-of-service agreement. And so, even though it's starting from a much smaller base, we have already seen strong and expected growth in the dry Utica. So remember, we have 2 basic systems there. We have the cardinal system that takes in the wet Utica volumes and then we have what we call - refer to as our flint system; that is the dry Utica. The dry Utica has been - has seen some really fast growth going on, but it's from a much smaller base. And - but the wet Utica has not had the benefits of any drilling for a long time. So it's pretty interesting to watch, in these basins, where in some areas we're still enjoying DUCs. And in an area like the wet Utica, we're really seeing what the raw decline really would look like. And I would tell you, I think that is an interesting macro picture for people to pay attention to. It's also important to remember that infrastructure constraints continue to limit the Northeast volume growth. And certainly, we're anxious to see a lot of these big projects come on, because we really think that's going to unlock a tremendous amount of growth. But we do see here in the third quarter, we've seen some pretty soft pricing in the third quarter. And certainly, that could have some short term impact and really cap the growth in our volumes here in the short term. But overall, for the second quarter, Northeast adjusted EBITDA increased $26 million compared to the same period last year. Increased Bradford ownership resulting from the DBJV sale primarily drove the increase, with Marcellus volume growth offset by rich volume declines we talked about earlier. Fee-based revenues remained relatively stable through the period. I'd also like to just comment, kind of a little more forward-looking on this. Our teams are having great success on the commercial front which I would tell you is following from a great operational performance in terms of reliability in the Northeast. And we're really excited to see what the next 12 months holds for this area. That is poised to grow rapidly. And I would tell you, it's looking like we may be able to pick up more than our market share of that growth as we look forward, given the great performance by our teams up there. As we go now to NGL & Petchem Services. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was affected by the unplanned downtime at Geismar in the March to April timeframe. We discussed on last quarter's call as well as a modest reduction in per-unit margins due to price movements on those products there. The Geismar transaction, as I mentioned, closed on July 6. So there's no gain on the sale in this quarter's result. But we expect a $1.1 billion gain to be recorded in the third quarter. So now let's move on to the next slide and take a quick look at our year-to-date results. We delivered GAAP net income of $954 million with adjusted EBITDA of over $2.2 billion, up about 4.5% compared to the same period in 2016. The year-to-date 2017 segment results generally reflect the same drivers we saw in the second quarter. The only exceptions - primary exceptions I would point out there is the typical seasonal issues that we see on big systems like Transco, where we have short term firm that we sell as well as interruptible volumes that flow on those system, relatively small compared to Transco, but we do see some fluctuation there. That is very typical and you can go back and look at any quarters - previous first quarter and second quarter and you'll see that movement. And also, our West volumes which we were pleased to see rebound from the first quarter after some freeze-offs in the Western operations. Coverage at WPZ came in at 1.27 on the back of 1.45 billion in DCF. And this solid coverage which excludes the $116 million revenue amortization, continues to grow and provide solid coverage that we can reinvest. So now let's look at some of our executional highlights for the second quarter. I've already touched on the first couple of projects here. And obviously, the Geismar sale was significant. But another area I'd like to emphasize is our growth in the Gulf. It's important to remember the strong competitive position of Atlantic-Gulf's offshore assets which really showed up here in the second quarter and some new volumes and some new business that we contracted that came on. And we continue to make progress on Atlantic Sunrise, where construction continues on the mainline facilities and we will see early mainline service revenues this September. Assuming timely regulatory approvals, we expect to hit our target in-service date of mid-2018. And with respect to completing the entire project, the long lead item is the greenfield compressor station work. As we've discussed in the past, the majority of the takeaway capacity could be available once the pipeline is in service, even if the greenfield compression isn't in place. And so that's really going to be a big game changer in the area as we bring on these - what we refer to as the Central Penn Line in the area. And in fact, we're in the final phases of permitting for the Central Penn Line and - which is all in Pennsylvania. And our team continues to work cooperatively with PDEP, with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and other agencies. I would tell you, we've got a very good relationship there. And we have worked hard to meet their very stringent and careful requirements. I would tell you, PDEP's being extremely cautious, as you would expect, in the environment they're operating in. But we found them to be very professional and diligent in their efforts. For all of our projects and operations, we try to differentiate Williams from our competitors in the way we listen to our landowners and the public and work hard to understand their concerns as well as the regulators. And we think over time, this trust that we continue to build pays dividends as our pipelines are going to be there for a very long time and we understand that and we go into it with that attitude. In fact, we just finished a public comment period in a round of public hearings for Atlantic Sunrise in Pennsylvania, in which a tremendous number of people stood up to support our project, including people from labor unions, business, manufacturing as well as local elected officials. To be sure, there is some opposition to the project, as you've picked up in the media. But we know the majority of Pennsylvanians understand how important natural gas takeaway capacity is to the future of the common welfare. In addition to our project - or progress on Atlantic Sunrise in 2017 Transco projects, as we've discussed, our Northeast Supply Enhancement project is progressing as expected as well. And in the West, we expect to place two gathering expansions in service for this year at the Wamsutter and Haynesville spaces. So nice example of high incremental returns in those areas where we've got a very strong presence already. And so nice to see some increased volumes to be coming on in those areas. Our Northeast G&P team is also working hard to place expansions in service by year end that will allow Cabot to meet its commitment to Atlantic Sunrise and other new takeaway arrangements that they have reported on. So as I wrap up, I'd emphasize, we're pleased with where we're here in mid-2017. And especially on our project execution, our solid performance and focus on execution this year positions us very well going into '18. And especially with the high incremental return projects we have coming down the pipe, in both the Northeast and now the Haynesville and Wamsutter Fields, we're able to fund our growth within a very comfortable credit metric along with our retained cash flow. Though in general, I would tell you, the U.S. really has a tremendous competitive advantage because of our abundant low-cost natural gas supply. Williams' advantaged position between these abundant supplies and growing natural gas demand is continuing to deliver tremendous growth prospects with better-than-industry-average returns. Our employees across the country are very passionate about driving value and building Williams for the future and doing it the right way. And on a personal note, I'm really pleased with the significant contributions of our new leaders and - are making here, as we continue creating low-risk, predictable growth for our shareholders. So with that, I thank you and we'll turn it over to the operator for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll go first to Jean Salisbury of Bernstein.
Jean Salisbury:
Can just remind us of the major permits to watch for, for Atlantic Sunrise to be on time for Phase 1 and Phase 2?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. I'll have Micheal Dunn take that for you.
Micheal Dunn:
Good morning. Right now, we're looking at 3 primary permits to finalize the permitting process. One is the 404 permit that the Corps of Engineers is processing. And the other 2 are from PDEP or for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. Those are 102, 105 permits as they're designated. All of these are water-related type permits and we've obviously finished all the public comment periods for all of these. And we do expect these permits to be in-hand in August and that would allow us to start construction certainly thereafter. So what will happen after we received those permits is, we would go back to the FERC and ask for a notice to proceed. And at that point, we would be able to begin construction on the project.
Jean Salisbury:
Okay. And that's kind of a 1-for-1 delay, I guess. So if that gets delayed by 2 weeks, then construction start would get delayed by 2 weeks, basically?
Micheal Dunn:
Well, yes. It would be a day-for-day delay. But we're pretty optimistic we're going to receive those permits here in the month of August. And FERC has been pretty generous in turning around notice to proceed requests for the industry fairly quickly. So we would expect to be able to start construction shortly thereafter.
Jean Salisbury:
Great. And then, as a follow-up. As I'm sure you're aware, there have been a lot of rigs added in the Haynesville since the beginning of the year which should lead to volumes in the back half. You now get fixed fee on that, right? I'm wondering if the ramp has been more than what you expected in your guidance and kind of more than the minimum that you agreed with Chesapeake a couple years ago?
Alan Armstrong:
They're a little bit ahead. But part of that obligations they had was a certain number of wells turn in line. I would say what's been surprising to us is not the number but really the performance that they've had on those wells, that they've continued to do better and better on. We do have a new piece of capacity coming on, on what's called our Springridge system. And so that'll add about 150 million a day of capacity. And it is needed, because there are volumes stacking up behind that. So we're excited to be turning that on here in the very near future. And that will unleash some volumes in that area. So yes, we're enjoying growth there and excited to see some of the well performance in that area.
Operator:
We'll go next to Ted Durbin of Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin:
I appreciate the update on Southeastern Trail. I just wonder if you can give a little more sense of how much capacity you're marketing there, the type of capital you might be deploying, what kind of returns you're looking at on that project, please?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would say, still yet to be determined. As we've reported in the past, we got some very valuable capacity there, a lot of demand for it from the market. And we want to make sure that we get the very best investments around that. So I would say, we remain excited. We haven't pinned that down. We do have a binding open season that's going to be closing here as we speak. But we're going to make sure that we get the absolute optimum value out of that, because that capacity southbound - that incremental capacity southbound within our main line or brownfield, if you will, is extremely valuable. And we want to make sure we get whatever other strategic benefits might come with that. And so that's what we're working on. So I would say, very optimistic there. But remain - we're going to be patient in making sure that we get the very best alternatives out of that last easy expansion that we have coming south there.
Theodore Durbin:
Okay, that's helpful. And then, you saw an uptick in the West. Maybe I just missed the comments on your gathering volumes, sort of second quarter versus first quarter. I was wondering if you can give us a little more sense of the drivers there that are sort of offsetting what has been more of a declining area than a growing area?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. Mostly I would tell you it was just recovery from some of the production and freeze-offs in general. But for instance, in the Barnett, we're starting to see and this is more recent, but we're starting to see Total. Remember, they had a roughly $40 million a year obligation for drilling dollars in the area. There were kind of late to get started on that just because they had a lot of issues to deal with as they took over as operator. But I'd say, they're really starting to get after that and we're starting to see some improvement from their investments there. So typically, Barnett has been a pretty heavy decline area and we're starting to see that be arrested. Mike, I don't know what other comments you might think to...
Micheal Dunn:
Well, I would say, across the board, there were improvements in most of those franchise areas in the West, pretty significant in Eagle Ford, Haynesville and also the Southwest Wyoming. So we recovered from the problems we had, obviously, in Southwest Wyoming over the winter and saw a pretty good uptick there.
Operator:
We'll go next to Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Charles Barber:
This is Charlie on for Jeremy. Just one clarification on the Petchem segment. So there will be just that first week that Geismar was still technically - before it was finally sold in that first week of July? And then, the RGB Splitter, that was sold, is that correct?
Alan Armstrong:
That is correct. I think that closed June 30, so that won't even be in the third quarter.
Charles Barber:
Okay, great. And then, just the maintenance CapEx. Obviously below the guidance. Just trying to understand on kind of cadence for 3Q and 4Q, similar step up that we saw in 1Q and 2Q, to kind of hit? Or is there - I mean, any reason why you would come in below that $500 million guidance?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say, we have a lot of work to do and it's somewhat dependent on our ability to get to that. But we'll be pushing hard to get that done. And so, I think, probably the best pattern probably to look at is previous year's patterns. I think, that's probably a pretty good indicator of the cadence that we have that's driven by both weather and loads on our systems. Said another way, we're - we have so much load on our systems typically that we have to be careful when we take them off line to be able to do the work. So those patterns are pretty well fixed and really wouldn't expect anything very different in terms of percentage per quarter that we're spending in there. So I'd say, it's probably the best guidepost to look at.
Donald Chappel:
This is Don Chappel. Just to clarify on NGL-Petchem. You'll see, I think, as Alan mentioned, 6 days of operations at Geismar. You'll see the expected gain on the sale that we disclosed, an estimate of $1.1 billion. And then you'll see any other, I'll call it, miscellaneous cleanup kind of changes in reserves, things like that, that relate to that segment that'll dribble in a bit over time. But really, from an operating standpoint, it's really only 6 days of operation of Geismar. The gain on sale and then just, I'll call it, a dribbling, if you will, of any other adjustments or costs or revenues that might dribble through there.
Charles Barber:
Great. And then, just real quick, lastly. The - during the Analyst Day, you mentioned, within the Atlantic-Gulf segment, the couple of projects that were in negotiations. Just any update there? I believe there was one that you touched on earlier. But I just - curious on the remainder of those.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, we're not quite ready to announce anything on those. So lots of expansion work going on. But - or development work going on. But I'd say, on the Transco system, it's pretty complex right now. A lot of opportunities that we're pursuing, but coupled with Southeastern Trail, there's - we're having to, again, as I mentioned earlier, we're really trying to make sure we're optimizing, because we understand how valuable these tranches of capacity are.
Operator:
We'll go next to Colton Bean of Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co.
Colton Bean:
I appreciate the comments on Atlantic Sunrise and that there's still a few moving pieces to nail down there. But I think on Q1, you kind of referenced the variance in CapEx guidance as largely attributable to Sunrise timing. So then, maybe a better sense of how that progresses through the back half of the year. Can you guys refine that range at all?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say, we're probably, given kind of where the timing's working out, we'll probably wind up closer to midpoint of that rather than the low end or the high end of it. Because we're - the high end would've had us already under major construction. And the midpoint is about kind of what we're expecting and it looks like that's going to come out. So I would say, kind of the midpoint is probably a pretty good indicator right now.
Colton Bean:
Okay. And then, on the West segment, so you mentioned the reversal of freeze-offs on the gathering side. We didn't necessarily see that for processing, so is there also a bit of a mix shift going on there in terms of rebounding volumes on the dry gas basins and maybe more of a flatter trajectory for rich gas?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, yes. We did have some shifts in the - at our Opal facility there. We had Ultra, where we reformed the contracts there. And then, on LINN Energy, they rejected a contract that we had. That also showed up in the first quarter. But they rejected a contract that we had out there. We're looking at being able to pick up some volumes in the area. But that really was a change, though. So one shifting from fee to commodity risk and the other was we actually lost the volumes there at the end of the fourth quarter.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll go next to Timm Schneider of Evercore.
Timm Schneider:
My question, I guess, is a bit more longer term strategic. Specifically, if I look at your business model, right, you have, obviously, the natural gas pipelines which are, I'd say, best in breed; then you have the Gulf of Mexico and Rockies or West Gathering and Processing. As you look at your gross CapEx portfolio, I mean, the majority of that is centered around Transco. But kind of, over the next - and it's not near term, but over the next 3, 4, 5 years, what's beyond Transco? Or do you actually think Transco's going to be the pillar going forward here as well? Or is there other things that you guys are looking at in the portfolio? Basically, it's kind of like, everybody looks at Williams in the context of, "Hey, maybe they're a takeout target." I'm kind of thinking of it the other way around. Is there anything that you guys are interested in?
Alan Armstrong:
Timm, thanks for the question. I would just say, we're very excited about the strategy that we have and opportunities that are coming along. We're really working to be the best operator in this space, in this strategy. And I would say, we're working extremely hard as a team to not just be good in the space, but great. And we think, as we continue to execute over time that, that's going to open up opportunities for us to continue to expand in our strategy. But I would say, it is blocking and tackling first and we remain extremely focused on that. And we have so much opportunity, as you mentioned, we have so much opportunity here that's right in front of us that we're really narrowing our focus on delivering on that. But certainly, we're paying attention to long term trends and where we need to be next. And I think, we've always done a good job strategically of positioning ourselves in the right place and we'll continue to do that. So - but I would say, there's a pretty intense focus right now on delivering what we have, because there's so much value to be created just delivering on what's right in front of us right now.
Micheal Dunn:
Timm, I would add, if you go back to our Analyst Day, we talked a lot about the Northeast, where we have an opportunity to increase our revenues up there fairly significantly with less capital infusion into that, just because of the backbone systems that we've already built up in that area up there. So that's one of the areas that we talked about a lot at Analyst Day that we have great opportunities going forward.
Timm Schneider:
Got it. And I guess, let me ask one follow-up on that. And I know the focus really has been - and you guys have done a tremendous job on this, kind of shifting toward - at the Mantle, that fee or that take-or-pay business model on the gas pipeline side. But would you be categorically opposed to looking at gathering and processing assets, if they have the right structure, right? So it's not commodity price exposure, maybe more fee-based, minimum volume commitments, stuff like that?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, no. We're not at all opposed if it's the right risk-adjusted return. We think we're very good in that space and we think we're a good operator in that space and have a lot of talents and capabilities. So yes, we'll certainly continue there. I would say that, even within the gathering and processing space in particular, it gets pretty hard to match the quality of our cash flows given our contracts and the growth opportunity that we have around some of our business. And so, I would tell you, anytime we're going to look at anything, it's going to be a mix of quality of cash flows. We've got a pretty highbrow mix of cash flows that I think's pretty hard to compete with, both in the current and in the forward-looking.
Timm Schneider:
Got it. And lastly, I mean, if I look at your geographic footprint, are you guys kind of happy with the basins you're in right now? Or is there anything else that you'd like to be in? And obviously, there I'm kind of hinting at - you guys don't really have - you guys sold some stuff in the Permian. No scale there. Is - did we kind of - is it too late to get in there at this point in a big way? Or is there still some opportunities, if they were available?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I would just say, first of all, we do have some pretty significant acreage dedication in the Permian that we think could be significant as the play develops. But as we've mentioned, we really don't have all of the vertical integration that a lot of the big players have in there. And frankly, we're not - we don't - we're not interested in paying the kind of multiples that have been getting paid to get in there, because you're not just betting - I mean, there's no upside left when you pay those kind of multiples. And so, I would say, we've seen that as pretty pricey. But we certainly are taking a look at it as it could impact gas volumes. We have a lot to offer being the Transco system and being able to distribute those volumes to market. And so we'll continue to keep an eye on any opportunity there and certainly see both the Mexico markets and the LNG markets along the Gulf Coast as something that we're well-positioned to serve and - however we can use our assets to gain competitive advantage towards those alternatives, we're certainly going to be having an eye to. But I would just say, I - there's a lot of well-hill players in that basin. And I think, our - the question we have is, how do we use our skill sets to help take care of some of those volumes. But I think, going head-to-head on the gathering and processing - upstream gathering and processing out there is - looks pretty pricey right now.
Operator:
We'll go next to Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere:
Just looking for a little more color around what governs the potential time gap between the greenfield Central Penn Line for Atlantic Sunrise being in service and the compressor station? And if I recall from Analyst Day, the pickup, when you - the month of revenue pickup when the compressor's online is about $11 million a month. Is that correct?
Alan Armstrong:
I'm going to turn that to Micheal Dunn here.
Phillip Wright:
So let's start with what we hope to put in service this fall with some main line facilities that we have underway right now. So we would expect to start seeing some revenue you heard Alan talk about earlier from that, in the September time frame. And that's really reversals of our compressor stations on the Transco main line as well as one greenfield - sorry, one brownfield compressor addition at one of our existing stations. That does not get us capacity all the way back into the Northeast PA basin, though. So what we would anticipate, once we get the Central Penn Line completed and that would be about 2 months or so ahead of the greenfield compression in the Central Penn Line. So we would have 2 months there of about 1.2 Bcf a day of capacity that would come out of the basin there that would certainly create an outlet for our customers up there. And then ultimately, the compression coming on line puts us at about 1.7 Bcf a day. So assuming that we get a construction start date this fall, we think it's about a 10-month construction for the entire project. Optimistically, we could get the pipelines in service a few months before that on the greenfield and be able to put about 1.2 Bcf a day in service on that project.
Craig Shere:
Okay. So it's really just logistics and construction? There isn't a separate regulatory permitting issue related to the compression?
Micheal Dunn:
No. No, there's not. I mean, ultimately, we go to FERC in a few weeks once we get the 102 and 105 permits from Pennsylvania, the 404 for the Corps. We asked for a notice to proceed for the entire project. It's just the timing of the schedule, it just takes longer to build a greenfield compressor stations than it does the greenfield pipeline.
Craig Shere:
Understood. And then, any more color around what's going on at Constitution?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say, we continue to expect something coming out of the Second Circuit there. But I would tell you, we were very encouraged by the D.C. circuit ruling on Millennium. And then, basically telling the - that the New York DC had waived and that they should go to the FERC for their permit. That was very instructive, I would say, relative to Constitution. And so we're excited about that. We continue to work with the staff in the White House to move things along, because we think they have the rights to move things along on that project. So it remains a two-pronged approach. But I would tell you that the last month or so here has been encouraging in terms of how the court ruled on the Millennium project and the attention that that's gotten in - within the White House staff. So anyway, just continuing to push on that. Nothing moves very fast on that front. But continue to be encouraged by what we're seeing there.
Craig Shere:
Could you still see potential favorable 2017 announcements?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, my patience has been strained, obviously, as long as we've been pushing on that. But yes, I would expect to see some action here in '17 still. So I feel pretty good. Now we've got a lot of work to do to then get the system installed and get through all of the very final permitting issues. But remember, we already have our certificate from FERC from that. And so, I think, the political environment is ripe and I think we either get some help from the courts which there's some probability, but it's a little bit unusual for a court to overrule an agency like that. But we think we've got a very good case in that regard. But I'd probably say, I'm more optimistic about the pathway through both the core and the FERC to gain approval with the White House's assistance on that.
Craig Shere:
Great. And last question, Don, I just want to confirm for the third quarter, there's going to be no cash tax drag relating to that Geismar sale up at the C Corp, is that correct?
Donald Chappel:
Craig, we do not expect a cash tax drag related to the Geismar sale. There could be a modest amount, but right now, it's expected to be 0 or a very modest amount.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho:
I just have one question. We've seen some consolidation among producers in the Northeast. It's pretty fragmented up there. So I'm sure we'll continue to see some consolidation as well as acreage changing hands. There's also a whole bunch of producer-sponsored MLPs on the gathering side. Are you seeing any initial signs of any of these guys wanting to monetize? And then, separately, what do we - what do you think we need to see for the opportunity for some of your partners wanting to get out of the JVs they're in with you on? Are we waiting for pipeline capacity on the gas and NGL side to come on? Or is there any other gating items that we should be aware about?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Christine, good morning and thanks for the good question. Yes, I think the consolidation is well underway. I think that EQT and Sclotterbeck really, I think, onto a path that's important in terms of being a low-cost manufacturer in the basin and they certainly have, with the Rice transaction, would have a tremendous position up there. And I think, we'll continue to see that, where people are really focused on those areas, on the one hand. On the other hand, I would tell you, in some areas, there's just so much remaining drilling locations. For instance, for companies like Cabot, they just have so many remaining locations within the large acreage position they do have that they've got plenty of scale to execute at a low cost in the area. So I guess, I would say, I do think we'll continue to see consolidation, but maybe for varying reasons up there. On the Midstream side, I do think that we'll continue to see consolidation as well. As you point out rightly, there's a lot of private equity that's had money up there and it's probably getting a little stale and a little ripe, because they've been in those positions for quite a while. And typically, the way they're rewarded is, the management teams have them anxious to get out at some point in time and it's certainly usually inside of 5 years. So I do think, there's going to be some pressure up there. But I think, there's probably just deltas and bid-ask right now between people's expectations and what the market might allow for. And I'd say, we're just in the process of seeing those bid-ask spreads close in on themselves. So that's kind of how we'd describe that. But I definitely think that we'll see some shift going on up there just like we always do in big, fast growing basins. There's a lot of people to start with and then, the big players tend to consolidate because they've got the right scale, they've got the right cost structure and they've got the right market outlets. And those tend to drive the volumes to those systems. So I think, we'll continue to see some pretty sizable consolidation here in the next 18 months in the Northeast.
Christine Cho:
And as a follow-up, when I kind of think about the Northeast, obviously you talked about Cabot. Your gathering should benefit when Atlantic Sunrise comes on. In Southwest PA, do you think the bigger bottleneck is gas pipeline capacity that needs to come on for you guys to see your volumes increase? Or do you think it's more NGL takeaway, like Mariner East?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, the NGL takeaway issue is more an issue of price, right? Because you can clear your barrels. It's a matter of what you get for them by getting them out of there. Versus on the gas side, it's an absolute issue because there's no alternative other than the gas pipeline. But of course you have rail and trucking to get liquids out of there. So I do think the price improvement on NGLs will be welcome to the basin. And that could have some impact. But I clearly think, the biggest issue right now is on gas takeaway, because it's a point of diminishing return on the gas. If you turn any new gas on, not only does that gas get underpriced, you just put price pressure on the other gas that you have in the basin. And so it's a very constrained and finite point in terms of getting gas out of the basin. And so I think, to answer your question, I think gas is probably more important than the liquids.
Operator:
We'll go next to Eric Genco, Citi.
Eric Genco:
I was just wondering, on Constitution, I'm just trying to remember, if you were to get a Millennium-type decision, how long would it take to put the pipe into service? And can you remind us if there's some seasonal issues? And what type of barriers would be to starting construction and birds nesting, et cetera?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Mike, you want to take that?
Micheal Dunn:
Yes. So right now, we would anticipate the earliest we can get that project in is early 2019, so probably second quarter 2019. And there are quite a few windows. But backing into an opportunity to get released this fall, that would put us in the first half of 2019. For an in-service date.
Eric Genco:
Okay. And then, in terms of the cost savings in the West, it was pretty impressive. I just wanted to ask, where do you think you are in terms of like what inning? And if could you expand a little more there? And do you think there's more to come in that segment? Or maybe other areas? And just, how that's been going for you?
Micheal Dunn:
I'm sorry. Could you repeat the question?
Alan Armstrong:
Mike, the question was on cost savings in the West and whether we're - should expect to see a continuation of that improvement.
Micheal Dunn:
Yes, thanks for that question. Our team's doing a great job out there taking cost out of their business. And I think, we will continue to seek those opportunities and find opportunities to continue to take costs, not just out of the West business, but the rest of the business where it makes sense. And there's still opportunities there. We have a lot of consolidation, for example, in our measurement systems that - where we had the legacy Access and the legacy Williams measurement systems, for example, that we're consolidating. And we'll be able to continue to take costs out of the business in that fashion. So there's opportunities just like that all across our business. And certainly in West, we'll continue to do that.
Eric Genco:
That's great. And final one for me, I just wanted to ask if you've had any recent conversation with the rating agencies? Or if you have any plans to kind of, post the Geismar sale - I realize it was announced a while ago, but just didn't know what the schedule was there.
Micheal Dunn:
We're in regular conversation with the agencies. So yes, we update our model and discussions with them and obviously that's a major milestone. So we'll continue those conversations. What they do with it, who knows. But we think our credit is improving steadily and we're hopeful that they'll agree.
Operator:
That is all the time we have for questions. I would like to turn the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing comments.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Well, great. Well, thank you. Very excited about the quarter and excited about how we're positioned here for the next 12 months and got a lot of exciting things ahead of us continuing to come on. So I appreciate your continued interest in the company and hope you have a great day. Thank you. Bye.
Operator:
That does conclude our conference for today. We thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John Porter - Director of Investor Relations Alan Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Dunn - Chief Operating Officer James Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P Rory Miller - Senior Vice President, Atlantic-Gulf Donald Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Walter Bennett - Senior Vice President, West
Analysts:
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Faisel Khan - Citigroup Craig Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Becca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors, LLC Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets Christopher Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC J.R. Weston - Raymond James Financial, Inc. Shneur Gershuni - UBS Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Operator:
Please standby, as we are about to begin. Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams, Williams Partners First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thanks, Amy. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Joining us today is our CFO, Don Chappel; and our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn. We also have the leaders of our operating areas on as well. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we reconcile with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of today's presentation material. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Glad you could join us today. And I plan to keep my remarks pretty brief today to allow as much time as possible for your individual questions and also recognizing we have our Analyst Day coming up next week on May 11 in New York City. The first quarter of 2017 demonstrated the resilience of our business as we continued to show meaningful growth and stayed on track for our 2017 guidance, despite the impact of some significant third-party outages and production freeze-offs in the Rockies. Our natural gas focused strategy continues to be on the mark as we differentiate ourselves by delivering consistent and sustainable growth on the back of low-cost natural gas demand. Overall, I'm pleased with this quarter's progress. So let's get started on Slide 2 and take a look here at the first quarter. Starting with WPZ's GAAP results, we saw a sharp increase in net income due to higher investing income on the Permian for Marcellus transaction that we completed in the first quarter. Apart from the increase due to this transaction, our ongoing business performed very well, generating an increase in operating income of $141 million compared to the first quarter of 2016. Moving now to adjusted EBITDA and DCF, WPZ's adjusted EBITDA grew over 5% compared to the first quarter of 2016. This marks 14 consecutive quarters that we generated year-over-year growth in this measure. We delivered $752 million in DCF for the quarter, which also was up over the first quarter of 2016 and provided a strong coverage ratio at Williams Partners of 1.33. And now let's take a look at how each of the segments did versus last year. First of all, the Atlantic-Gulf delivered another solid quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $48 million or almost 12% over the first quarter of 2016, now reaching up to $453 million for the quarter. There were a couple of third-party incidents on adjacent pipelines near Paradis, Louisiana, and Corpus Christi, Texas, that did impact our results, although there was no direct damage to our facilities from these incidents. Both events affected volumes on our Discovery and Markham systems, respectively. Atlantic-Gulf, despite this, Atlantic-Gulf increased fee-based revenues by about $43 million for the quarter, and this increase was primarily driven by new projects that we brought online in 2016. And our Gulf Trace project was put in service during the first quarter of 2017, so again, really another great quarter here for Atlantic-Gulf. Let's move on to the West, which now includes the predictable Northwest Pipeline system and existing Rockies G&P assets to which we've now added the Conway and Overland Pass Pipeline, as well as large-scale gathering systems previously located within our Central Operating Area. The broad-based portfolio underpinning the West, along with a sharp focus on cost control, delivered stable first quarter adjusted EBITDA versus 2016. Overall, the West adjusted EBITDA came in within 3% of the first quarter 2016. We did see lower fee-based revenues, mainly as a result of contract changes and 21% lower volumes in the Barnett area. The Barnett field was impacted by really little to no spending on the production over the last year by our previous customers there. So we're excited to see the impact that the new operator in the area, Total, $40-million-plus annual investment will have in the restoration of this production. And they really are just now getting started on figuring out exactly the best places where to place those dollars. And so, we're really excited to work with them and increasing production there. Despite a mild winter throughout most of the U.S., though, the West experienced some extreme weather in January that caused widespread production freeze-offs in the Rockies. We have seen a pretty good rebound in volumes as things have thawed and several rigs have returned to the area. In fact, already our overall volumes in the West are tracking 2.4% higher than the average during the first quarter of 2017. On the other side of the coin, we experienced record throughput volumes on Northwest Pipeline, as a result of the cold weather in the West. To summarize, stable performance continues in the West with Barnett stabilization, recovery in the Rockies and some growth in areas like the Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and potentially, even the Wamsutter field. we look forward to as we get into 2017 and 2018. Now let's move on to the Northeast G&P, where year-over-year operated gathering volumes were up nearly 5%. And if you adjust for the sale of a couple of isolated gathering systems last year, they gathered about 90 million a day. Volume growth would have been closer to 6.5% on that same comparison. So overall, Northeast G&P adjusted EBITDA increased $2 million compared to the same period last year of - and so $227 million as increases in the Bradford, Susquehanna, Ohio River systems were largely offset by decreases in the Utica. And so overall, our mix of revenue shifted a bit where - to dry gas, where our total revenue per Mcf is a little bit lower than it is in those rich gas areas. We think our Utica production is currently at an inflection point to where we'll see growth in the volumes going forward. We're also seeing a pickup on well-connect request across most of the Northeast, as producers prepare for takeaway capacity coming online. And now, I'd like to make a few comments about our NGL & Petchem business. As you know, the streamlining of our operating areas, we've shifted certain assets from NGL Petchem to other segments. So the first quarter of 2017 results now just include the Geismar olefins plant and our propylene splitter near that same facility. The first quarter saw overall improvement in prices and margins for propylene and ethylene. These results were offset by lower production volumes, primarily due to an unexpected failure on the local utility provider system on March 12. This power failure caused a shutdown of our Geismar plant. Once the repairs were made, the plant was restarted here on April 18. So as a result, Geismar only contributed about $37 million of adjusted EBITDA for this first quarter of 2017. Overall, our NGL & Petchem Services segment reported adjusted EBITDA of about $49 million for the quarter. And now, let's move on and discuss some of the projects and operational developments for the first quarter. First of all, we brought Gulf Trace into service on time and under budget. It's one of the five key Transco pipeline system expansions that we expect to place in service during 2017. It even contributed fee-based revenues here in the first quarter of nearly $9 million. So as you know, the Gulf Trace serves the Cheniere's Sabine Pass LNG export facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. A picture of that facility, in fact, is on the title slide of today's presentation. And in addition to Gulf Trace, we made significant progress on other projects as well. Construction on the Garden State project is now underway, and we started construction on the mainline facilities of the Atlantic Sunrise project. We're continuing to work on the remaining regulatory approvals for this critical piece of natural gas infrastructure. And just this week, we updated the final permitting data required for the PA DEP 102 state permit and the PA DEP 105 permit. And that update is actually in the process of being delivered as we speak. So great work on the team's part of getting all that new data pulled together and getting those permit applications updated. We submitted an application for a permit certification - sorry, or an application for a FERC certificate for our Northeast Supply Enhancement project, which is a nearly $1 billion fully contracted project that will increase the supply of natural gas to the New York City area by about 400 million a day. Natural gas demand on our systems continues to build. As evidence of this fact, we saw records on two of our major interstate pipeline systems, Transco and Northwest Pipeline during the quarter. We also experienced record gathering volumes in the Northeast G&P, where we achieved a quarterly gathering record of about 6.9 Bcf a day. This represented a 7.5% volume increase for our operated gathering volumes comparing the first quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2016, so really nice jump from the fourth quarter here on - in the Northeast volume. And we hit record natural gas liquid transportation volumes on our Overland Pass Pipeline system serving the Rockies. All of this occurred despite a relatively warm winter in many areas of the country and particularly in the Northeast. We also closed on the Permian for Marcellus transaction, bringing our Bradford Supply Hub average ownership to about 66% as we continue to increase our presence in this prolific supply area. In terms of increasing our focus on predictable fee-based revenues, we announced on April 17 the agreement to sell the Geismar olefin facility for $2.1 billion to NOVA Chemicals. This sale is expected to close this summer. I want to thank the team that's been working on the Geismar transaction and also the team that operates the plant for their persistence, diligence and their continued focus on safe operations. This transaction is one of the last remaining components of de-risking Williams' revenues from direct commodity exposure. After Geismar closes, around 97% of our gross margins will come from predictable fee-based sources. Among those predictable sources will be the new long-term supply and transportation agreement with NOVA that was highlighted in our April announcement of the Geismar sale. Williams Partners' subsidiaries will provide feedstock to the Geismar plant via our Bayou Ethane pipeline system in the Gulf Coast. And looking to the balance of the year, we expect to bring the Hillabee Phase 1 project and the Dalton system into service as planned in mid 2017. We anticipate that the New York Bay and Virginia Southside 2 projects will come online in the fourth quarter also as planned. It's certainly been a successful quarter on the execution front and we're really optimistic about what's coming in terms of growth projects. So before I wrap up, I want to remind everybody about our Analyst Day next Thursday, May 11, where you'll see that we're on a clear and predictable path to continue delivering leading EBITDA growth in our sector. We'll discuss in more detail the drivers that will allow us to continue delivering DCF growth while sustaining strong cash coverage and credit metrics. We'll also discuss how the financial repositioning we've executed will enable us to capture high quality fee-based growth opportunities that are going to be funded through a mix of low-cost debt and retained cash flow. And our operational leaders will be highlighting the significant opportunities ahead for Williams, and especially how our competitively advantaged asset-base is so well positioned to deliver sustained growth through high return organic investment opportunities that are now before us. I'm also looking forward to introducing our new Chief Operating Officer, Michael Dunn. He's already hit the ground and running, and he'll be presenting next week. So that concludes my prepared remarks. Now, I'd like to pass it over to the operator, so we can address your questions. Operator, let's take our first question.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operating Instructions] We'll take our first question from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning. This is Charlie [ph] in for Jeremy. Just wanted to follow up on the Atlantic Sunrise, I know you said you're in the midst of getting the second permit - state-level permit. Were there any other requirements there? I thought I remember there being one from the Corps of Engineers. And then just a second separate question, just on the growth CapEx guidance, $2.1 billion to $2.8 billion. Can you just remind us, kind of what may cause us to hit the upper-end or lower-end of that guidance range?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. I'm going to have Mike Dunn take that permitting question here in just a minute. On the capital piece, the primary variances there is the timing of the Atlantic Sunrise and how soon we're able to get started on that project. But as well some of the Northeast construction that - and the gathering system that feeds into that is a bit variable as to timing as well. So it's not really a question of how much in terms of projects really, it's just the matter of the timing of those projects. And, Mike, hope you'll take the question on Atlantic?
Michael Dunn:
Sure. Thanks, Alan. Good morning. The Corps of Engineers, we do have a 404 permit update to provide to them and that will occur later this month. That's very similar to the PA DEP updates that we're providing to Pennsylvania. In that, we're just following up with additional information. And that should be a permit received from the Corps of Engineers shortly after that. We do expect permit receipts from both PA DEP and the Corps of Engineers in July, assuming everything goes well. But that's been a pretty large undertaking for our teams to make these updates, but very proud of their effort in getting those submitted this week as we anticipated.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thanks. And just one more real quick, shifting over to G&P volumes in the Northeast, just can you give a little more color on the Utica volumes that kind of caused that shift to more dry gas exposure?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I'll may be have Jim Scheel hit that portion.
James Scheel:
I think we've been pretty consistently talking about - Chesapeake has moved rigs out of the Utica, specifically the Cardinal wet gas area, over the course of the last couple of years. Alan referenced that we've kind of hit an inflection point with no drilling. We've seen natural declines that have caused us to drop from our high of about 1 Bcf a day to just under 700 Mcf as we go into the first quarter. We anticipate volumes ramping up. Chesapeake is moving in additional rigs. Some of that reduction, though on the wet-side has been offset by new drilling in the dry Utica. And we see that volume increasing.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Christine Cho from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho:
Good morning, everyone.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Christine Cho:
I wanted to start in Marcellus. We've seen a competitor JV with a producer for some processing plants. And on your acreage, we've seen one producer acquire three or four of your customers, and can probably become somewhat sizable with respect to production. And they've also talked about wanting to be a partner in processing. Is this something that you'd be interested in? Some color on how you think about the strategy in the Northeast going forward. Like, how you evaluate whether or not to get an upfront volume commitment on your processing plants in exchange for acreage lease like we saw with the prior deal, that may cap your upside versus taking on maybe a little more risk in having more upside, especially given the deleveraging you've done to date?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, thank you, Christine. We're always happy to work with customers that have things to bring to the table. And we certainly have continued that effort in the OVM area, and really excited to see the kind of development that is going on. We're getting a tremendous amount of well-connect requests that are probably coming in a little faster than we thought. And so, we do think that processing capacity we have available in the OVM is very valuable. And so we want to make sure that we maximize the value of that in whatever transaction that we do. But, really excited to see all the activity, excited to see EQT out there, really getting active on some of that acreage that was somewhat fallow or especially underfunded, and so I think there's some real big promise coming into the Ohio River area, as a lot of new activity is occurring in that area.
Christine Cho:
Okay. And then moving over to Barnett, there's been some talk about directing stack gas volumes to excess capacity that sits on Barnett plants. Could this be an opportunity for you or are there contractual or logistical impediments that would prevent you from doing this? Then, if you could actually remind us what the residue gas and NGL pipes are out at the back end of those plants, that would be great too.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Christine, we don't have any processing capacity in the Barnett. All we have there is gathering, compression and a dehy. So, we don't have any processing facilities there in Barnett, so really not in a position to take advantage of any of that in the Barnett, if I understood your question correctly.
Christine Cho:
Okay. And then last one for me. Have you disclosed how much capacity and how long the long-term contract is going to be with NOVA?
Alan Armstrong:
No, we haven't. We haven't disclosed that as yet. We'll be providing some more detail around that at our Analyst Day coming up.
Christine Cho:
Okay, what's the...
Alan Armstrong:
I do think we've said - Christine, I do think we've said that it's for the full requirements of the plant.
Christine Cho:
Okay.
Alan Armstrong:
And that historically has been 50,000 to 55,000 barrels a day, depending on whether we're in ethane or propane or depending on if we're cracking all ethane or not.
Christine Cho:
Okay. And what's the capacity of the line? It looks like you are doing an expansion that was supposed to take effect second half of this year.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, that's very dependent on where the - where the ethane is coming in. And remember, we also have ethane supply points coming in from our Baton Rouge frac, as well as - at Port Allen as well from our parity system as well. So we can actually pick up ethane from three different points to supply under that contract. And so - but the capacity is very dependent on where that production is coming in. But we did complete a pretty significant expansion earlier this year. And so, we're well positioned to supply the Mississippi River with ethane.
Christine Cho:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
And next from Goldman Sachs, we have Ted Durbin. Please go ahead.
Theodore Durbin:
Thanks. Maybe we can start with Northeast Supply Enhancement, that project; so $1 billion of CapEx. Are the returns sort of similar to what you guided to on some of your other projects? And then, just remind us of the in-service date there. I think it's 2020, but what - thinking about timing there.
Alan Armstrong:
Rory, you want to take that?
Rory Miller:
Yes, I would say the multiples - we are going to do a little bit - I think updating you in Analyst Day on the multiples of some of these historical projects that we've been doing. But I would say, this is kind of in that same sweet spot. It's been a good position for us to be in. We've been able to leverage our existing system. And so the returns have kind of stayed in that range for projects where we've had some brownfield scope to them. That - I think in terms of in-service, I thought that one was in 2020. I don't have it right in front of me. But that like we've been doing on all of our projects, the stated in-service dates are going to be more of a P90 [ph]. And, of course, our target in-service date we're going to be trying to beat that if we can.
Theodore Durbin:
Great. And then on your other - your Southeastern Trail open season, maybe just - can you talk about what exactly you are doing there? It looks like the backhaul - how much capital associated there? And then how do we think about that relative to this sort of displacing existing contracts or are there actually a meaningful revenue uplift on Southeastern Trail?
Rory Miller:
Yes, on Southeastern Trail, this would be a capacity that we're selling that would either be latent in the system itself, because it is flowing north to south, or we'll be adding new facilities to provide that capacity. We are right in the middle of the sausage-making [ph] right now on Southeastern Trail. We did have an open season. And although I'm not going to get into the details of that, I would tell you that the requests far exceeded what we have capability to offer. So we're going through the process doing all the technical work, trying to understand what's the most efficient way to expand the system and take advantage of some of that latent capacity. And then, we'll be generating rates, going back to the customers. Having iterative process to settle in on an actual capital size, capacity, and then get the deals closed. So we're probably right in the middle of that process. I don't think it's a week or two. It's, say, we're more at the midpoint in getting that sorted and settled.
Theodore Durbin:
Got it, that's great. And then, if I could just ask one more. I think, Alan, you sort of alluded to this notion that you do have strong growth over a multi-year period. I guess, I'm wondering where your head is on providing multi-year guidance. I know you used to do that. You've kind of backed away from that. But kind of maybe even just a little bit of a preview of what we should look for at the Analyst Day next week?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, I think what you're going to see is particularly in - from each of the OA leads, you're going to see the drivers of growth and the leverage. For instance, the operating leverage we have in the Northeast and what volumes mean to us in terms of EBITDA there. You'll also see a little more portfolio of the kind of opportunities we're pursuing in - along Transco system. And then finally, you'll see some - in Don's presentation, you'll see some of the drivers of growth into 2018 as well. So we're not going to be providing guidance like we used to, but we are going to be putting some pretty specific terms out there on what those drivers are and give you a lot better opportunity to make your own assessment.
Theodore Durbin:
Okay. Great. Thanks. I'll leave it at that.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay. Thank you. Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll hear next from Faisel Khan with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Faisel Khan:
Hi. Good morning. It's Faisel from Citi. Just a little more clarity on - hi, the Geismar feedstock agreement, are you doing anything different in that agreement than what you were doing before for Geismar? I'm trying to figure out if there is a net uplift to your cash flows from your logistics - provide a logistic contract versus what you were doing before?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, that's a really complicated answer to that, Faisel. But, let me just say that we did have - and before, we did have both the cost of operating the pipeline and we had revenues. A lot of that just showed up, if you will, and coming out of the margin of Geismar. So it's a little bit complicated when you think about trying to pull out the Geismar revenue. I will say, though, that we do expect a pretty modest uplift in revenues from that transaction as a result of it. So we'll provide a little more detail and color on that at Analyst Day, but it is a positive for us. And it will be showing up now as third-party fee-based revenue and dropping all the way to the bottom line, where previously it kind of would have been buried in that Geismar margin.
Faisel Khan:
Okay, got it. And then on the balance sheet now with the sale sort of under way, what's your expectation for consolidated debt-to-EBITDA by the end of the year for the entire company?
Alan Armstrong:
Don?
Donald Chappel:
Faisel, we don't have an update for you today, but obviously, it's coming down. I think, we indicated that we would use the proceeds from the Geismar sale to pay off the $850 million term loan and prefund the CapEx that's still the plan. You can run the numbers. We'll provide some additional commentary next week, but we don't have any guidance update per se.
Faisel Khan:
Okay. And then last question from me. Can you give us an update on all of the legal battles that are taking place, one with - [your first one] [ph] with Energy Transfer, how that - when do you expect sort of a decision or how's that going. And then also on Constitution, how is that appeal process sort of trending?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure. First of all, on the ETE piece, there was a hearing around the process and discovery process on that a couple of weeks ago, I guess. And so that - in that, the judge came back and said he wanted to consider that a little further in terms of, what that discovery process, and so there's motions coming forward on that. So that wages on, if you will. On the Constitution piece, we continue to work with the administration on that, continue to feel good about that. And as well, the court process continues on Constitution as well. And so Constitution, we feel like is an upside to us, but we're optimistic that there's a lot of people, including the unions have been a big support for us on that, labor unions, who really want to see projects like that go forward. And of course, the state of New York's denial on the 401 certificate for Northern Access for National Fuel also turned the heat up a little bit on this issue as well, and so - which appears to be a pretty similar situation. And so I would say that the pressure is mounting on the issue, and you've got projects there that are both important to New England and to New York as well as important to jobs and getting some of the regulatory morass out of the way of getting the infrastructure built, all of which is a top priority for the administration. So, feel like we've got a lot of people on our side on that, and we're going to continue to push forward on it.
Faisel Khan:
Okay. But there's no date on the appeal process, when that will conclude that for Constitution?
Alan Armstrong:
No, there's not.
Faisel Khan:
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
We are thinking it's in the not-too-distant future, though, so but if things go like we would expect them to.
Faisel Khan:
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere:
Good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Craig Shere:
Picking up on Faisel's questions around the long-term feedstock agreement using the pipeline heading into Geismar. If I understood, there was a possibility that pipeline might be sold as a part of the Geismar asset divestiture, could you talk through the thinking behind retaining the asset and signing a long-term agreement, and maybe its impacts from a tax standpoint and long-term accretion benefit towards Williams?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, it's certainly very positive for us. We're really excited about the transaction because it did allow us to obtain very reliable, long-term fee-based revenues out of the transaction. And so we're really excited about what that looks like and the terms of that contract. So we think that was a very smart transaction in that regard. There's really nothing much more complicated than that, frankly, about the transaction other than the fact that it allowed us to retain some fee-based revenue. We do have other customers on the system, and we think that system is extremely well positioned to continue to expand as our customers expand. And so we're really excited to be able to serve NOVA. And of course, they've got big plans for expansions in the Gulf Coast. And we want to be there and be a good reliable provider to them and grow with them. So I would say, it's really nothing more than continuing to have stable fee-based revenues, and taking and retaining a bit of that, if you will, out of the Geismar EBITDA.
Craig Shere:
Do you see expansion upside on the pipeline system there within - announced maybe within the next couple of years? Or is that very hazy longer term?
Alan Armstrong:
There are some opportunities as some of the projects expand there in Beaumont-Port Arthur area, but we don't have anything that we're planning to announce here in the near future.
Craig Shere:
Okay. And one question on the quarterly impact from those third-party outages affecting discovery in Markham, what would you estimate the proportional EBITDA effect of that was?
Alan Armstrong:
I don't know that we've disclosed that. I'll tell you more specifically what it amounted to, is it took quite a bit of volume out of Markham that gets fed up from some of the Eagle Ford volumes that gets fed by a competitor's pipeline into Markham. So it took some of the volumes out of Markham, some of the rich gas volumes coming into Markham. And on the Discovery system, even though it didn't impact our volumes, it actually shutdown the whole system for, I think, four, five days, six days. So we lost six days to discover in the quarter, which is pretty significant. And so - because it wasn't just the processing and fractionation facility, it took the whole facility - the whole system out for a bit. So anyway, great job by our team of helping the third-party there safely recover and getting our Discovery system. We were able to move some volumes around and keep some of our customer volumes flowing, but it certainly impact our revenues pretty significantly on Discovery in the quarter.
Craig Shere:
Understood, looking forward to next week's Analyst Day.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thank you. Good to see you, Craig. Thanks.
Operator:
And from U.S. Capital Advisors, we have Becca Followill. Please go ahead.
Becca Followill:
Good morning, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Morning, Becca.
Becca Followill:
On the Northeast Gathering, the unconsolidated volumes were up about 11% yet equity earnings were flat. Was that due to what you talked about, Alan, with the shift to dry gas versus wet gas and the lower margins? Or why don't we see a pickup in the equity earnings there?
Alan Armstrong:
I'll ask Jim Schell maybe to take that. Do you follow that question?
James Scheel:
Yes. I guess, just going in. We didn't really have a decline of 11%. We had some systems that were off. But overall, on our consolidated volume, from a - let me…
Becca Followill:
Well, actually, Jim, I said that its unconsolidated volumes were up 11% yet...
James Scheel:
Oh, upward, eh?
Becca Followill:
...yet equity earnings were flat. So why the disconnect?
James Scheel:
Yes, again, that really goes back to the base story that we just talked about, which is the Utica volumes were down primarily, and those were offset by higher volumes in the dry gas areas, primarily around Susquehanna Supply Hub and Bradford. And so, those balanced out effectively from an EBITDA perspective, and we were able to overcome those volume declined on an EBITDA basis.
Becca Followill:
Okay, thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Remember, Becca, the Barnett system shows up in that unconsolidated numbers, and so growth on Bradford.
James Scheel:
The Bradford area.
Michael Dunn:
Yes. And then, UEOM is the big Utica system that's in the unconsolidated that would be part of that lower Utica volume story.
Becca Followill:
Okay. So it's the wet versus the dry gas margins then?
James Scheel:
Yes, that's exactly right.
Becca Followill:
And then on the West, you talked about a couple of things impacting you, one being weather in the West, talking about volumes being down 8% year-over-year, one was the West and the other was Barnett. Can you quantify how much of that was Barnett?
Alan Armstrong:
I don't think, we're showing that level of detail what we did report, and I think, we'll follow that through, but we did show a 21% decline, as I mentioned in my comments, in the Barnett.
Becca Followill:
Okay.
Alan Armstrong:
So it's a pretty significant decline in the Barnett.
Becca Followill:
Got you. Okay. That's all I needed. Thank you, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you, Becca.
Operator:
And from BMO Capital Markets, we do have Danilo Juvane. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane:
Thank you, and good morning. Most of my questions have been hit, but I did have a couple of follow-ups. So on the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline, the second half starts on the mainland, have you quantified or will you quantify at the Analyst Day what that EBITDA impact will be?
Alan Armstrong:
We have not given detail on that. I would say stay tuned for our Analyst Day, and we'll give you a little better idea there at the Analyst Day, kind of the full package on that.
Danilo Juvane:
Thanks. I appreciate that. And secondly, on the West segment, there was, I think, a G&P contract restructure with a producer. Did that have anything to do with the shortfall relative to last year?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, again, the Barnett, it certainly did, because we were fixed on our MVC, based on what the cash we got paid last year. So that restructure in Barnett was the most significant. There was - so - of the restructure, that was the biggest [ph].
Danilo Juvane:
Okay.
Alan Armstrong:
And sorry, on - maybe I didn't understand your question. On land energy, we did have them reject a processing contract that we had in Opal as well, so it's a fairly low margin contract, but they [saw our planned input volumes of correctly] [ph] in the West.
Danilo Juvane:
Okay. But to your point, the biggest driver was the Barnett restructuring?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, right.
Danilo Juvane:
Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now hear from Chris Sighinolfi from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Hey, Alan, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Just had a couple of follow-ups. I appreciate all the color on the supply agreement to NOVA. It's helpful. I was just curious, given you cited that the 37-day outage in the quarter was attributable to a local utility provider issue, just curious, and maybe it's a moot point with the sale pending, but is there any recovery on that, if you believe the third party responsible for it?
Alan Armstrong:
We wish, but no, there is not any avenue for recovery on that.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Okay. And then, second, just sort of more thematic, but I'm assuming this will be addressed at the Analyst Day. I know, we discussed it in the past, but just we appreciate any updated thought on, we hear a lot this earnings season and over the last several weeks and months about producer activities in sort of prolific shale plays that may have high associated gas cuts coming with them. And just what that might mean for domestic natural gas supply demand and in turn, what that might mean for Transco expansion opportunities into the Southeast Gulf Coast markets. I'm just curious if that is a legitimate concern for sort of your legacy avenue of growth? Or I guess, if you could speak at all about sort of the appetite for the next tranche of expansions beyond those that we know. Is there any change in counterparties view on what they've been asking you guys to construct for them given that change in producer activity? Or is it consistent with what you've been experiencing to date?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. No, I think people - if you're thinking about - if you're a buyer of natural gas, if you're a big LDC, you're converting over to gas off of coal or if you're building an industrial facility, likely, if you're in that pathway, you really want to connect to something that's a long-term low cost supply. And so, we continue to see that dependence and people really looking at those low cost supplies as something that they would much prefer to connect with, either through long-term gas purchase contracts that we've seen quite a bit of where a producer knows what they can produce and the cost they can produce at. I think if that's the business you're in, you really want to be focused on something that's not at the whims of oil prices in terms of development. And so, I think that what we're seeing is a very consistent theme, which is people continuing to focus on the very low cost resources and being able to contract through for those for their long-term dependence on that fuel. So I'd say things remain very healthy there, and we continue to see a lot of demand. As Rory pointed out on our Southeastern Trails, we're kind of sometimes shocked by the degree of demand that we're seeing in trying to get gas out of these very low cost resources into these growing markets.
Christopher Sighinolfi:
Okay. Great. Thanks for the color this morning, and look forward to next week.
Alan Armstrong:
Excellent. Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
From Raymond James, we have J.R. Weston.
J.R. Weston:
Hi, good morning. You mentioned during the prepared commentary that positive weather impact on the Northwest Pipeline's throughput for the quarter. Just wondering how to think about the progression there for the rest of the year? And then, I think in the 4Q materials, there's kind of some mention of some longer-dated projects up in that region. Just wondering, if there is any type of update there.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. I'll take that first, and then, I'm going to turn that second part of that to Walt. But on the first, the good news, the bad news on these fully contracted pipelines, there is just not that much variability, did see a little bit of uplift in IT revenues on Northwest Pipeline, but when you have these fully contracted pipelines like Transco, Northwest and Gulfstream, you just don't see much movement from quarter to quarter other than a little bit of IT revenues, because they're fully sold out versus some of the pipelines - some of the other interstate pipelines you see that are more dependent on actual volumes flowing. And so, our volumes are up, which is healthy, because it says that there is demand growing consistent with what ultimately leads to expansions. But in terms of what the revenues we take in, it really doesn't move all that much, as you can see looking at history. And Walt, maybe you'll take the question on the longer lead projects.
Walter Bennett:
Sure. Thanks for the question. In terms of projects on Northwest Pipeline, we do have two projects that we're pursuing right now with our customers that are increasing lateral capacity to serve them, and we're going to give some more detail around that on Analyst Day. But that will be a little bit of an uptick as those get billed in terms of increment lateral fees, and that has really essentially optimized all the capacity on the existing mainline capacity in Northwest Pipeline. And so, beyond that, what we see is that, as additional demand comes on then we're going to be also looking at working with our customers on increasing mainline capacity on Northwest, which will be a good uptick in revenue on Northwest. And we'll be providing some more color around that on Analyst Day.
J.R. Weston:
Okay, great. That's helpful. Thank you. I guess, just one more for me kind of switching gears quite a bit. But just with the Geismar transaction announced now, and then with all the other positive steps that you made over the last year or two, I was just kind of wondering what else is going into the equation moving forward, even just anything kind of from a thought process perspective, as you're looking at the dividend, the distribution growth outlook and especially at WMB, where the guided range is a little wider fairway at 10% to 15%?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Well, obviously, as we continue to execute well, that would move us towards the upper end ultimately on that, as we continue to execute well. But I think in terms of the question around what we do with excess cash, certainly, the first thing we've talked about is taking down the revolver debt at WMB. That's really about the only thing we can easily take out in terms of debt at WMB and well on our way to doing that. But beyond that, we'll determine when we come to that point, and we've got that down, then we'll determine what we think the very best use of that cash is from a shareholder perspective. And so that will be a consideration towards the back end of the year likely.
J.R. Weston:
Okay. Great. That's all I had. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
And from UBS, we do have Shneur Gershuni. Please go ahead.
Shneur Gershuni:
Not bad. Hi, guys. Just a couple of questions. And I think they're kind of a bit of follow-ups. For starters - and I think Chris kind of touched on this a little bit here, but when you've got the amount of gas that's coming out of the Permian Basin, and sort of starting to impact spreads and so forth, how do we think about the competitive nature of the Marcellus, which needs to obviously move gas down there? Do you think basis does contract and presents an opportunity? Or is there a risk that that step up that we're all hoping for doesn't materialize, because of all the production downstream? When I look at spreads further out, it looks like it does contract, but I'm kind of interested in kind of your thoughts about it.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I think certainly, with all the new pipeline capacity that's underway and systems like ours that are fully contracted, the pipeline capacity is getting built. As you'll see in our presentation next week, there's also a lot of power gen demand coming on for the Northeast as well, right, within the circle of pain, if you will, where people are trying to take advantage of all that low cost supply in the power generation market. So we think very positive things in terms of demand for the Northeast is coming. And I think, as I mentioned earlier, I think the big long-term gas demands really want to try to take advantage of the low cost - big low-cost supplies. And even if you get out on the outer end of ranges that I've seen of around 5 Bcf a day of incremental growth through 2021, it's just not near enough to really stay up - from the Permian - it's just not near enough to stay up with the kind of demand growth that we're seeing in the balance. And so, we'll hit that next week in some detail, but I would just say that the kind of demand we're seeing come on is really going to take a big low cost gas resource like the Marcellus and the Utica that people can count on that production being there through the valleys and peaks that tend to occur in the oil business. So we think the Marcellus and Utica certainly established itself as the supply basin for a lot of this incremental demand, and it's really the only one that can come on with that kind of scale.
Shneur Gershuni:
That definitely makes sense. And then, you completed some offshore investments last year. Just wondering, if you can sort of give us a sense of how they're running at this stage, right now. Is there a further ramp? Just any color on how we think about how they're doing and where they're going at this stage.
Alan Armstrong:
Rory, you want to take that?
Rory Miller:
Yes, I'll take that. Maybe starting with our Keathley Canyon Connector, that facility is running fully loaded. The South Hadrian gas field and Lucius are making up most of the volumes in there. But it continues to run fully loaded and our downstream plant at Larose is running right at nameplate capacity, so great performance there. I would say over in the Eastern Gulf, some other noteworthy projects that we've had over the last couple of years are our Gulfstar project. And I also would characterize that as a bit of a slow start. The operator had some challenges - downhole challenges, but some subsea or a downhole valve litigation that was all part of that. But the fields actually, the Tubular Bells field and then the tieback that we made at Gunflint, those are really starting to line out and produce nicely. In fact, a couple of days ago, we hit 50,000 barrels a day through the facility. It's been averaging a little bit below that, but it's performing very well. I would say this year, it's really hitting its stride, performing better than it did last year. The other thing, I'll mention, we had a tieback to our old Devils Tower bar with a field called Kodiak that was a one well tieback. And they recently recompleted into another zone, so it's being co-mingled. And they almost doubled production out of that well, so really good performance over in the Eastern Gulf. Of course, there are always declines, but I feel like this year, the operations have - not only on our side, but on the producers side has kind of hit their stride, and we think that's pretty solid.
Shneur Gershuni:
Cool. Thank you very much guys. Appreciate the color and look forward to further update next week.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thanks, Shneur.
Operator:
And we do hear from Brandon Blossman with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company. And he's next.
Brandon Blossman:
Hey, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman:
A couple of quick ones. One, hearing some producer - renew producer interest in Powder River Basin development, any thoughts in terms of trajectory for you guys going forward there?
Alan Armstrong:
I'm sure, Walt, you want to hit that.
Walter Bennett:
Sure. Yes. We have seen renewed interest in that area on our Jackalope system. And this year, this has been included in some of the guidance and some of the public statements, but - and anticipate a number of wells coming on in that area with some two or three rigs that are going to be working that hadn't been in the area previously, and also exploring some new formations, [suffix, the turner department] [ph]. So that brings some optimism to that area, and we're looking forward to seeing the results of those wells. And hopefully, we'll have a strong growth trajectory from there.
Brandon Blossman:
Well, thank you on that. And then, broader picture. So Gulf Trace, under budget, any thoughts about where we are today and expectations for the future in terms of pipe or labor costs inflation?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, good question. I would say on our major projects that we have right now, we're under construction. And some of the big projects like the NESE project that Rory talked about earlier, pretty unique labor set there, because you're right in very heavily congested area and you're in some of - quite a bit of that work is actually in Raritan Bay in offshore. So pretty unique contractor set that will be on that project. But overall, I would say our team has done a really good job of anticipating a lot of increase in construction and have done a good job of getting out in front of that in terms of contracting. So feel pretty comfortable there right now in terms of how we're positioned, but certainly, we could see some pressure in the large diameter market as some of these big projects like Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast Pipeline start - and Rover start to take hold.
Brandon Blossman:
Perfect. Thank you. That's all from me.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Porter, at this time, I would like to turn the conference back to you and the other speakers for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well, thank you all very much. I appreciate everybody joining us today. Really excited about the way the team is executing and really excited about the prospects ahead of us and we look forward to talking to you about that next week. So thanks again for joining us.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc. Walter J. Bennett - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams and Williams Partners Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Tony. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions, and we also have the leaders of Williams' 2016 operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Well, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We're glad you could join us today. Let's jump right in here on slide two where we have an overview of what we're going to talk about this morning. We'll discuss our full year 2016 performance and also provide some perspective on where we see the business going and why we believe Williams is so well-positioned to continue on our growth trajectory. And first, I'd like to recognize our teams across the Williams Companies for the strong performance that was turned in for 2016. They endured a lot of uncertainty and change but just kept on delivering both great performance and execution against our projects. Cash flows, as a result of their efforts, were up and we exceeded our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. Our performance reflects the decisive actions we began taking in early 2016 to focus on cost reduction, strengthen our financial position and align our workforce to execute against our more narrow strategy. Very importantly, we continue to bring major new projects into service and make projects on others that are now permitted. We closed the sale of our Canadian assets in 2016 and we announced a restructured win-win gathering agreements in the Barnett and MidCon regions with Chesapeake. And we also announced the start of a process to monetize Geismar, which is on schedule. We also completed a board refresh process that saw the addition of seven new board members. We're very excited about the counsel and involvement of our entire board of directors that bring years of energy company experience and a solid track record of building and sustaining growth for stockholders. Throughout 2016 and 2017, we continued to make progress in debt reduction, and we're also enabling the funding of significant growth portfolio of WPZ at the same time. And just this month, Atlantic Sunrise reached a major milestone with its FERC certificate, and we continue to make progress on both the regulatory and construction planning fronts for this important project. There is significant support for the project from both business, industry – general industry in the area and as well big labor organizations who realized the value of the Atlantic Sunrise system to both Pennsylvania and to the U.S. economy. But Atlantic Sunrise really is just one example of projects we're pursuing as we transform our asset portfolio to deliver fee-based predictable and stable cash flows from connecting prolific supply basins to growing markets. On that note, we announced a transaction last week to increase our ownership in a Bradford County PA gathering operation. I'll discuss that a bit later, but we're very excited about the way that transaction worked out for us. So, with the unique advantage position we're in across both demand and supply markets, we believe there is additional value in WMB and WPZ pricing, given our strong adjusted EBITDA growth since the oil price collapse at the end of 2014. And I'll show some detail of our perspective on that at the end – towards the end of this presentation about our growth versus our peers and our valuation against our peers. So, with that, let's move on to slide three and discuss our overall full year 2016 results. Here, we look at the full year results for WPZ on GAAP measures of cash flow from operations. We were at about $3.7 billion, up nearly $1 billion on cash from operations. On the full year 2016 GAAP measures, we delivered net income of $431 million at PZ, up over last year due to lower non-cash impairment charges, a little bit of help on commodity margins and of course increase on fee-based revenues. On the non-GAAP measures, we look at 2016 adjusted EBITDA is up in every segment, all five of our segments here for 2015 (sic) [2016] with a total overall increase of 8%, I think, really demonstrating the strength of our natural gas-focused strategy. And our DCF was also up about $151 million or 5.4% versus 2015, giving us a coverage ratio of 1.01 times. And of course, this is measured against the higher distribution rate of 340 a unit. Our ongoing cost reduction efforts across the company are contributing to our strong performance, even as we brought new assets online. So we're continuing to grow the business, but as you look at our operating costs, we've been able to lower those in many areas and keep those flat in areas that we're growing. You can see some of the key drivers for the full year results by various operating here on slide three, but let's turn over to slide four and I'll provide some color on each of the areas as we look at the 4Q 2016 results. So, looking here at slide four, the simple headline here is, we do continue to deliver growth across the business here in the fourth quarter. And our CFFO for the fourth quarter was up nearly $1 billion, primarily driven by the Barnett contract restructuring as well as growth in our modified EBITDA. Again, on the GAAP measures, similar story. Net income of $145 million was up over last year, once again due to lower non-cash impairment charges. And in the fourth quarter, EBITDA growth on adjusted EBITDA, we saw a growth of 5% over 4Q 2015. DCF for the quarter was down about 3% versus 4Q of 2015, and this is primarily driven by increase in maintenance capital and an increase in interest expense. Of course, we're beginning to take that interest expense down. Overall, coverage for the fourth quarter came in at 0.92 times due to higher maintenance capital spending and, as I pointed out, the increased interest. But for the year, the coverage again was 1.01 times. So, now, let me provide some perspective across all of our five operating areas. And just as a reminder, this would be the last time you hear about all five because we are consolidating those into three areas, which will be the Atlantic-Gulf, the West, and the Northeast G&P as we go into 2017. So, looking at Atlantic-Gulf, we continue to deliver growth both year-over-year and in the fourth quarter. For the year, adjusted EBITDA was up $112 million with the increase driven by free-based revenue growth and embedded fee-based revenues in our Discovery JV. Of course, the Discovery JV was driven by natural gas volume growth from the prior year as we brought on some of the big systems in the deepwater. Great job by our Discovery team of continuing to operate safe with tremendous growth in their business there. We saw higher fee-based revenues as well, but we had a nice lift from the Pascagoula opportunity in the second half of the year. And just let you dial that in a little tighter, we think that was about $24 million in the fourth quarter that came from the excess volumes coming in from the Pascagoula outage there in the fourth quarter. The Gunflint revenues were up as well, and we did see a partial offset of these increases due to some outages for well work-overs and repairs on the Tubular Bells field that flows into Gulfstar. Overall for the year, cost related to new assets being placed into service and maintenance and modernization on our existing systems offset some of the fee-based revenue growth. But pretty impressive cost controls allowed a large portion of the revenues to be recognized in EBITDA. This Atlantic-Gulf team really has been managing tremendous growth and continuing to reign in costs the same time. But I also would point to the fact that they also have tremendous amount of new business that they're developing at the same time. So, his team really is managing a lot of growth and doing it in an operationally prudent manner. So, very proud of the Atlantic Gulf team and their efforts there. Looking to Central. The adjusted EBITDA increased $13 million to $912 million for the full year. In the fourth quarter, Central's adjusted EBITDA decreased by $25 million to $194 million. This adjusted EBITDA was unfavorably impacted by approximately $23 million due to a one-time year-to-date true-up of amounts previously recognized during 2016 related to Barnett Shale Minimum Volume Commitment, and that was caused by of course the Barnett restructuring and recontracting that occurred during the fourth quarter. Moving forward, we're looking forward to working with Total to improve the performance of this important gas sale through their $40 million per year drilling commitment to the area. And overall, the restructuring has been viewed positively, and we think we're on track here to deliver steady continued growth in this area. And so, really excited to get to work in an area that's really been neglected for quite some time as it wasn't an area that was attracting any capital from Chesapeake. Just to note about the Haynesville now, that's an area which is further advantaged if the Northeast takeaway capacity is unable to supply most of the coming demand in the Southeast U.S. So, we view our position here as very strategic. And I would just tell you, I think, as we look at production here in the U.S. right now, and we see that continuing to fall, it's going to be really hard for – as prolific as the Northeast is, it's going to be hard for it to make up all of the production decline that we're seeing across the U.S. without the infrastructure coming on here in 2017. So, we really believe that anywhere that has low cost reserves and existing infrastructure like the Haynesville are very well positioned here as we head into 2017. So, let's look at the Northeast. In 2016, our Northeast G&P delivered a $43 million increase in adjusted EBITDA. These increases were due mainly to fee-based revenue growth as well as strong focus by Jim Scheel and our team there on cost reduction, including a reduction of $36 million in our O&M expense. So, that team is really making the Northeast, which was just on a growth tear there for quite some time, getting these big systems built out. And his team now is very focused on really getting our unit cost in line and continuing to be able to reign in costs there. So, really impressed with the way the team has come together there. As we've discussed, the Marcellus and Utica areas really hold the key for America's energy future, and we're working very hard on increasing not only our gathering position there but also making sure we're connected to all takeaway capacity to unleash this tremendous resource that will supply low cost, clean natural gas resources for decades to come. We did see some impressive volume uplift at the end of the quarter and set records on several of our big dry gas systems in January as local load and the REX 3 expansion gave this bottlenecked area some relief. So, a little more on that later, but really seeing here towards the very end of the fourth quarter and in January, we're finally seeing some volume response to price up there. And for the West operating area, the main story of 2016 was remarkably steady and predictable cash flows across the year with a very slight increase in adjusted EBITDA for the full year. The results were positively affected by a strong focus on cost controls and lower O&M and SG&A expenses. So, great job to Walt Bennett who leads that area for us as well and his team that really continue to put pressure on cost and at the same time really driving our focus on process safety across all of our big gathering systems both in the West and now in what was previously the Central area. We can report that producers in the West seem a little more hopeful than they've been recently. So, we're cautiously optimistic based on some of the activities we're seeing out there, most recently in response to both better gas prices and better NGL margins for the Rockies. The fourth quarter volumes were a bit impacted by weather-related freeze-offs, and we continue to see some impact from weather here in the first quarter. On the NGL and Petchem Services area for the year, NGL-Petchem adjusted EBITDA was up $163 million, so a very nice increase over 2015. We had a significant accomplishment in 2016 when we completed the sale of our Canadian business. And as reflected in the quarter and year-end results, it was one of the big strategic moves we made to focus the business on our core capability of gathering, transporting and handling natural gas. As you know, we're in the process of selling the Geismar facility and an anticipated announcement here in the first half of 2017. But I can tell you, the process is moving ahead as planned, and we expect final bids in late first quarter. The Geismar facility ran well in 2016, but we did have an interruption in production late in the year as we took the facility down to make some repairs, which resulted in about a 12-day outage during the quarter. This is a plant that's very strategically located on the Mississippi River, and we're really focusing on safe and reliable operations there as we're in the sales process. And it's a plant that is very well positioned to serve both Louisiana and the global market. Our other business, Conway and OPPL continue to generate very steady and growing cash flow. So, that area that doesn't get a lot of focus will now be included in our West, but great job of our teams there continuing to deliver cash flow growth in Conway and OPPL. Moving on to slide five. We regularly show how we are doing against the long list of projects and deals that support our very clear strategy. It's a really good measure of progress as we continue to steadily deliver these large complex projects and deals. It's critical to keep our eye on this list of high-priority items as it is a pathway to growing high-quality, predictable fee-based revenues. And we think it's a great list for our investors to keep their eye on as well. I think any objective observer would have to agree that progress is being made as we pursue tremendous demand growth on Transco, which is both the largest and the fastest-growing pipeline system in the U.S. But we also are preparing for the tremendous follow on in volumes as the demand builds and the Northeast is called on to meet this very identifiable growth that's right before us. So looking at some of the recent developments, first of all, the Transco's Atlantic Sunrise, I mentioned earlier, we did receive a FERC Certificate on this 1.7 Bcf a day system. And we're continuing to now work with the State of Pennsylvania to get our final permits for that project. All is going well there, and the team is really excited about moving ahead with the construction after a very long permitting process there on Atlantic Sunrise. On the Gulf Trace system, this is a system that most of the construction was done in Louisiana, and it's a 1.2 Bcf per day expansion to serve Cheniere Sabine Pass LNG export terminal, and this was placed in service ahead of schedule and under budget. And really nice, I would tell you, I think a nice break for our teams that are used to building in areas that aren't so friendly. Nice to see what they can do in an area, in an energy-friendly state like Louisiana and Texas. So great performance by and great execution by our team there, I'm really excited to have that in service so early. And it is now up and flowing. Also, several other expansions that are under construction, the 1.6 Bcf a day expansion in total, 448 million cubic feet per day for Dalton, 818 million cubic feet per day for the Hillabee Phase 1, 115 million cubic feet a day for the New York Bay system, and another 250 million cubic feet per day for the Virginia Southside 2. All of these projects are scheduled to be completed this year. So in total, five big Transco projects are scheduled to be placed into service this year. I might say, just because I think that sometimes it's hard to really put all this growth in perspective, that just the projects that I mentioned here brings on about 4.5 Bcf a day of expansion capacity on Transco, and I'll remind you that, that is all 100% contracted. So we do not have volume risk against that 4.5 Bcf a day. Pretty impressive when you think back to 2010 with Transco being about a 10 Bcf a day pipeline back in 2010. So again, great work by our team, both capturing business and growing that system. And speaking of growth, Transco did set another delivery record for peak day and three-day average deliveries of 13.7 million dekatherm per day and 13.6 million dekatherm per day on January 7 through to January 9. And so these are measured as we deliver gas into our customers, and really impressive considering we had a fairly moderate winter here in 2017. That sounds something really easy to roll off my tongue is to talk about hitting that kind of peak day on a system. But I'll tell you, it takes a tremendous amount of coordination and focus on operational excellence by our teams to reach brand-new levels of delivery off of this massive system, especially impressive when we have so much construction and maintenance going on, on the system to be able to coordinate those. So I think a lot of times, we all take for granted the extraordinary work that our workforce do to keep up with the kind of growth and volume and construction going on, but our Transco team has been doing it and doing it in stride. Looking out west, our Northwest Pipeline, very quietly, our team moved ahead out there and got a rate case settlement or pre-settled rate case with FERC. And though that's been filed now with FERC on January 23, those new rates will be effective on January 1, 2018. I'll also note here that Northwest Pipeline set a monthly record for deliver in January of this year as well. So that was a whole month of January record. So new monthly record. In the Central area, Barnett, the new gathering agreement course executed on November 1 with Total, and really took the risk, of the collection risk we had on those MVCs, and exchanged it for large cash payments received at closing. We also improved our counter-party credit rating and received drilling capital commitment from Total. So a lot of activities starting out there, really excited to work with Total, that area has really been neglected, and certainly it's a very important gas resource to the nation and one that we think ultimately is going to get called on here as the demand picks up here in the U.S. For our Marcellus-for-Permian transaction, this is really an important transaction for us. Great work by Frank Billings and the team to get that deal closed, and it really puts us in an area we really like. And in fact, the Bradford Supply area where these two systems that we acquired additional interest in, just set another record on February 10 of 2.725 Bcf a day, and that means for the Northeast PA, so this is just for our two big dry gas systems up in the Northeast PA, we exceeded 5 Bcf a day on that same day on February 10. So just to put that in perspective for you, on just two of our systems and in just two counties, we gathered over 7% of the entire U.S. production. So really starting to point out how incredibly important the Marcellus is, and these big dry gas systems are up here. So we're really excited about the acquisition there in Marcellus. And I think it's a great trade for Western and Anadarko as well. So a great example of a smart trade between two companies. On the Northeast G&P volumes, daily volume records across the northeast systems with strong winter pricing. And so as I mentioned, we continue to see great records hit, Northeast PA was the most impressive of that. But I think as we enter into the fourth quarter here, we start to see some capacity open up in the southwest part of the play, and in the Utica we're going to start to see some increased volumes there as well. So on the coming soon list, of course we have the Geismar process, that final bid from the late first quarter. But I also, one thing is not on the page that I'd like to mention here, is that we just announced the new open season on the Southeastern trail project. And this is a project that will run from our existing Pleasant Valley receipt point near Dominion's Cove Point Pipeline in Virginian, down to the south, the location is far south as our existing station 65 Pooling Point, which is a very liquid pooling point in Louisiana in St. Helena Parish, Louisiana. So another project, it's great to see this list of 20 or so projects who we're pursuing, start to come in fruition. But we're in the early stages of this project, but we've seen great evidence of continued strong customer interest, and pulling supplies off of Transco to meet their growing demands. So let's now move on to slide six. So just little bit of overview on the transaction we did there in trading out of the Permian system. That was a non-operated Delaware Basin joint venture. It was a joint venture with Western Gas and of course Anadarko then as the parent. And so we traded out of that area. And I'll tell you, it's certainly an area that has a lot of growth. It also had a tremendous amount of capital load against it. And so we're trading into an area that has tremendous free cash flow and growth that'll be associated in volumes as that area gets opened up to new takeaway capacity. So we think the timing of this transaction was really good, and very much meets our strategy. We also took in $200 million in the trade, and again, we're very excited to continue to double down on our focus on natural gas and natural gas market fundamentally. If I move on to slide seven and look at the financial repositioning that we've done recently. We're really excited about this, and I just want to highlight some of the real positives that came out of this transaction. First of all, we really are getting to the point – no external equity financing need against our existing business plan. Certainly, the market risk, it's always easy for us to ignore market risk and market access risk. But I'll just remind you where we were a year ago in terms of access to the market risk. So we're really excited, I think that's a key risk to take off the table so that both we as a company and investors can really focus on our business performance, which we think has continued to be strong despite some ups and downs in the equity markets. On the coverage side, a really interesting note here, and one I think that's being missed as people look at comparison of WMB to other entities, and we just point out here that the Williams economic coverage of 1.7 times is expected for 2017. Of course, that's driven off of the 1.3 times coverage at MB, plus 74% interest in the 1.2 times coverage at WMB. So we'll provide some detail on that in the back. But pretty impressive in terms of the kind of coverage that we're building that support to WMB dividend and yield. Looking at the strengthened credit metrics for both PZ and WMB, we note here the amount of debt that we've taken down here in the fourth quarter of 2016, as well as the first quarter of 2017. And we continue to really bring this down pretty dramatically, and in fact, if you look at where we were in just five months now with lower PZ debt by nearly $2.5 billion before asset sales, and WMB debt reduction down $75 million in the fourth quarter of 2016, and an additional $500 million expected here in 2017 as we execute our plan. So really bringing that down rapidly, and certainly that was a goal of a lot of the transactions that we've been taking on. The PZ cash cost equity reduced by 50%. We now have a top quartile yield amongst our MLP peers. And while we don't have any plans to use that cost of capital any time in the direct future and within our existing business plan, we think it's very important to have that low cost of capital because just as I pointed out, we continue to find new places to invest money in new projects. And we think for the long term, having that little cost of capital is exactly what we think matches up with this low risk growing cash flow profile that we have at PZ and WMB. And so speaking of low risk cash flow deposit, if we look at slide eight here, very impressive look at our EBITDA growth at 8% year-over-year, EBITDA growth, and that is going to continue as we continue to invest about 68% of our 2017 capital in the regulated pipeline. And so we're really excited about how steady this growth in EBITDA has continued to perform. And that's with things like the sale of our Canadian assets as well in there. And so really think this perhaps gets overlooked a bit by investors in terms of how steady and predictable the cash flow growth has been. And as we look at slide nine, really I think a very interesting picture here. So let me just quickly explain this to you. On the top chart there, you have the EBITDA growth. Now, this begins in Q1 of 2015. And why Q1 of 2015? A couple of reasons; one, that is right at the first quarter after the crude oil price collapsed in November of 2014. It also was where we consolidated and merged ACMP's operating numbers with us. So this is a nice, clean look at WPZ EBITDA growth. And then you can see below that our peers, you can see the peers listed down there in the footnote, and you can see the dash lines are peers that haven't reported yet, but that's their consensus EBITDA. So under any scenario here, I think it's safe to say that we have continued to perform extremely well against our peers in terms of EBITDA growth. But if you look down on the slide below there, we don't really feel like that's being reflected in our valuation at WMB, you can see us trading there as eight out of nine peers, and in terms of the enterprise value to EBITDA. And so we really believe that if we continue to execute, continue to show this growth in EBITDA, we're going to move up that slide. I really think, if you look at the fundamental underpinning of our business plan, I don't think we should be anywhere but over towards the far left on this slide because I do think we have the most identifiable growth. I think we've got very solid financial picture underneath this now. And so we really, as a team, are very focused on moving this EV to EBITDA multiple over to the left, and we certainly think we deserve that. So just in closing here, just to tell you, it really is hard to believe in the natural gas demand growth, and not believe in these kind of value that Williams is going to continue to generate. So we feel very strong about this natural gas fundamentals pictures. Obviously, we're continuing to double down on that through the transactions that we're taking, and we believe that even with the fairly mild winter that we've had this year, we're going to continue to see a need for natural gas market growth. We're certainly starting to see the LNG starting to pull. We're seeing supply is not really reacting yet. Certainly here through the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2016, we really haven't seen supplies react yet, but we know that they've got to, to keep up with all the tremendous amount of demand growth that's contracted for on our systems. So we're going to be continuing to stay very focused on the strategy. We're going to continue to keep ourselves well positioned, right in between these very best supply basins, and the very best market growth. And we think that the advantage of our footprint will continue to shine over time, and the continued growth in opportunity that continues to fill in our pipeline of opportunities is going to continue for some time to come. So with that, we thank you very much for your attention this morning. And we'll turn it over for questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. We'll go first to Brandon Blossman, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
I guess, let's start at Atlantic Sunrise, Alan. What determines, or what's the timeline look like from here? Is there a risk that the project slips from current in-service targets, and what would drive that risk?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Sure. Thank you for the question. Really, the primary risk at this point really remain around the permitting risk from the State of Pennsylvania. We've been working very closely with the state. They've been very cooperative, and they very much understand that we're going to do things right, and they are really doing a great job of keeping things on schedule on their side. So we're feeling very good about the work going on there with the State of Pennsylvania. Certainly, the Manor East 2 and the PennEast approvals this last week are good evidence of them continuing to execute on their side. So we're very thankful for the work that's going on with the pay depth there. They've got a lot of work on their plate, but they've continued to keep pace with us on our work. So that's probably the next big step, if you will, for us is to get that 102 and 105 permits from State of Pennsylvania. We still need to get the 404 permit from the Corps of Engineers as well, but feel like that's moving along very handily as well. And of course, they've been heavily involved in the FDIS (35:28) all along. So that's all part of moving that permit ahead. So really don't see any major risk on those two, but that is probably the risk that I would point to in terms of timing risk at this point.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
So base case, it sounds like you still think that you can hit the in service targets that you set out there.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think, of course, we still have it risked in our model. We still have it pushed out six months from that target date. But I would tell you, obviously, as we continue to click off things like the FERC Certificate, we continue to reduce the risk and the contingency that's built into that schedule. But right now, we still have it in there. But obviously, every permit we check off will start to pull that back. So I feel very comfortable about where we are, I would say, and feel good about being able to reach that target. But we all know that building pipelines these days is difficult, and we don't want to forget that as we lay out a financial forecast.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Fair enough. And then a follow on related to the Bradford system. How should we think of that as it evolves with Atlantic Sunrise coming online? Is there more capital to be spent? Has it been fully capitalized? What do volume trajectories look like over the next two years call it? And then earnings flat as the cost of service system, I believe, or should we expect uplift there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. You know it well, the very little incremental capital required because most of the big systems have been out, so it's really just well-connect capital, there will have to be activity to keep up with that, but the capital there, load, is very small. And it is, you are correct, it is a cost of service system. And so even though we may see some volume increase and pick up and some incremental capital, the base systems are cost of capital. I will say however though, that the positioning of those assets, and the opening up of those markets does allow us to bring in third parties to those systems. And so we do think that that will provide an opportunity for us out there to continue to expand our presence in the area. But generally, fairly moderate growth in earnings because of the rate base nature of those assets.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Perfect. Good color. Thank you, Alan. That's all for me.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We go next to Jean Ann Salisbury, Bernstein.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Good morning. I wanted to ask more about the Southeastern trail project, Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast are interconnecting to Transco. Is this targeting those volumes, and how much capacity do you have down there that could go south bound, like maybe 3 Bcf/d or so?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I would tell you that the amount of volume is – I mean, we can build and build and build, where we get – have to get beyond the existing right of way and the existing capabilities of the pipeline the more expensive it gets. And so the first 400 million, 500 million cubic feet a day of capacity is fairly inexpensive. And as we get beyond that gets more expensive. And so we're trying to make sure that we get the very best value for that, and that we know what the right size to build is. I think the biggest challenge we have, frankly, is really picking that right size. It's not whether or not there is a project there, it's a question of making sure we pick the exact right size, and we get the very highest return available to us based on that. So said another way, the larger the project may get, the lower our return may get. And so we've got to pick, really, what the perfect project is there. In terms of who those volumes are coming from, I would tell you the market will decide that. And certainly, that would be an area that could pick it up, but it's looking like there's demand well in excess of that in terms of the market demand. So I'm not going to get real specific on that, and the open season, of course, will tell who's going to pick up that incremental capacity. But that's, of course, the purpose of the open season.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks. And then secondly, you've had kind of talk to a lot of investors about the IDR transaction last month. I'm just wondering if there's anything in hindsight that you would have done differently or anything that you think investors may not have necessarily seen the same way that you and the board did.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you. Well, I would just say, I think we really are focused on the long-term benefit of sustaining growth in the business. And getting the IDR put away, I think, what was going to continue to be a level of uncertainty about whether or not that IDR could be met, how much waiver was going to be. So we felt like there's a lot of market inefficiency that was going to come with that. We also felt like we needed to move quickly to both take down debt. And importantly, I think probably this is the piece that you can have varying opinions on, is getting ourselves in a position where we're not having to be reliant on access to the markets over time and the volatility of those markets. We certainly saw that, that really damaged us last year as we had a lot of growth obligations, a lot of capital obligation, and yet we were having to issue debt at a very high cost, and the equity markets were extremely expensive as well. And so we feel like getting that risk out in a way that we can fund all this great capital in front of us is a really nice way to lock in margin between our cost of capital and these great projects that we have. So I would say, it's probably a delta and thinking about the risks that are out in the markets long term, and very much a focus on a sustainable model that can grow dividend for years and years to come.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Thanks for that. That's all from me.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next is Shneur Gershuni with UBS Financial.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
I was wondering if we can sort of shift focus a little bit here and talk about the sales process that you have ongoing. I kind of guess I have a two-part question here. You've had a couple of recent asset sales. Is there anything left besides just Geismar in that process? And then has the sales exceeded or they in line with your expectations. And I guess, what I'm really asking is how should we think about that $2 billion target that you put out there? Could you be above that number at this stage with how you perceive it thus far?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, Shneur, thanks for the question. First of all, one thing I want to remind people is, is that target that we put out there is a $2 billion after-tax number. And so I think we've been pretty clear on that. But that is what we've said and will continue to say. And I would just say that the Geismar process is going very well, and gaining confidence as the days go by on that. And so I feel very good about that. In terms of other assets, I would tell you that there are some other assets in and around Geismar. For instance, some of the pipeline, the NGL and Petchem pipeline systems in the Gulf Coast, that will not be all that strategic to us. And so I think we're going to be kind of in a mode, Scheur, of looking at opportunistic purchases of assets. And so whether there are players that have great synergies with some of our assets and are willing to put some of those synergies on the table to be the right buyer, then I think that's going to be the kind of sales that we're going see, and whether that's Mid-Continent, the stuff that's in the central region today in the Mid-Continent area, or whether it's the NGL and Petchem liquids line, it's really going to be a matter of somebody that might be a better buyer for those assets. So I don't think we're going to be in a must-sell mode at all. I think we're going to be very much in an opportunistic mode, and looking to see if somebody can make better use out of the asset than what see it. And so I think that's kind of the two areas you should think about. And to whether or not we'll blow pass that $2 billion number is very dependent on how hungry the market is and how nice the pricing we could get.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And just a couple of follow up. Once Geismar is sold, I believe you've talked about your commodity exposure would be around 3% going forward. So kind of the recent spike in NGL prices shouldn't necessarily have much of an impact. But when you think about the impact on your producer customers, are you seeing economics improving in some regions as a result, are there some green shoots where customers are starting to step up? And maybe in some specific areas, possibly the Eagle Ford and the Northeast, I was wondering if you can sort of give us the land as to where you see opportunities and where things are going to roll from here?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think it's very interesting to me right now looking at the natural gas picture. And we continue to see U.S. production continuing to fall. And yet, the market doesn't seem to be responding all much that yet. That is going to come home to roost. But I will say that when we did see some length in the market in 2017, we did see some activities in the west. We start to see a few rigs come back in the west. Walt and his team has done a great job of capturing business out there as that's occurred. And we also saw quite a bit of activity in the northeast. I think the number of pad connections that are being requested right now in the northeast is really catching my attention, and Jim Scheel and his team have been doing a good job of capturing that business. So I'd say it's more than green shoots in places like the Northeast because those are firm add requests. But it's going to have to come on stronger, I think, in what we're seeing so far to arrest the kind of production declines that we're seeing in the U.S. right now. And so yes we're seeing some resurgence, but I don't think it's enough, frankly, because I think we're kind of got spoiled leaning on DUCs and tie-ins with existing – of new production during 2016, and we've kind of been lulled to sleep on the fact that our productions continue to decline pretty dramatically on U.S. natural gas. So I feel, I think 2017 is going to be a very interesting year for U.S. natural gas, and I definitely think we're going to have to see some resurging activity in the Northeast, in the Rockies, and we have seen some resurgence in the Haynesville as well.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And one final question on constitution. Given the recent changes in Washington, do you see the odds of success increasing with this project? Are there things that we should be looking for out of the FERC, or should we be focused on the state in this scenario?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'm very, very encouraged about Constitution as we sit here today. I think it's becoming very evident that it's a critical pipeline in terms of serving gas demand and power generation needs for the northeast. That issue is getting louder and louder, and it's going to continue to be because there's no way to ignore it. In addition to that, I would tell you, the labor unions who obviously have had a pretty big voice in the Trump administration are very much on our side, and I think are going to be really pressing hard on the administration on that issue. And so, I think, there's a lot of people with their hands in the air right now in DC, and trying to get attention drawn to their particular projects or their particular issues they need to resolve, and we're certainly one of those. And I think Constitution is going to be a great example of one that can bring jobs and critical infrastructure. And so, I think, it's extremely well positioned to get some attention at the Federal level, and hopefully we'll be able to work something out with the state and do that in an amicable way. But I think there are several avenues that that can be impressed at the Federal level if the state does not want to cooperate.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you very much. Appreciate the color.
Operator:
Next is Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Good morning. If I can just talk about the – I think, in your slides in January, you talked about 20 prospective projects that are not in the backlog right now. Can you just talk about the returns you would expect to get on this? I think, you're building your current backlog at around 6 times to 7 times EBITDA build multiples. Is that kind of what you're looking at for the next wave? And then, if you can give us some sense of the capital there, again, I think of $100 million to $200 million. So, if we get them all, are we talking $2 million to $4 million or could the number be higher than that?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. So, just few things here. First of all, as I mentioned, the Southeast trail project is a good example, the one I mentioned we have an open season on. We'll be able to – I don't need to make this sound too easy, but we basically will be making decision between size and return on that project. And so, the larger it gets, the lower our return will go. But at the smaller level, we can make a very high return. So, obviously as we look at our cost of capital, that's a critical analysis for us to look at. But I would say, we certainly have the opportunity on that project to be in the 6 times to 7 times level, maybe even higher than that. But then, you also have projects, for instance, on – big projects up in the Northeast that are fully cost of service, so like the Rockaway Beach lateral – sorry, the Northeast Supply Enhancement project. Some of those projects are cost of service projects. Hillabee is a good example of a cost of service. We make a lower return on those projects because they are – I mean, we don't have any construction risk on those projects. And so, those are more in the 8 multiple level but, I would say, probably the mix is probably more like 80% of higher return and 20% at our fully cost of service projects that are out there. And in terms of the size, yeah, that number is probably about right. I think, we certainly see capabilities of continuing to invest in the $2.5 billion range for quite some time on an annual basis based on these projects coming in.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's great. Very helpful. Thank you. Next question. So you've got these targets out there for leverage for 2017. I guess, I'm wondering what the targets are beyond that, if you can help us both on WPZ standalone and then WMB consolidated?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Don, do you want to take it?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Hey, Ted. It's Don. No, we haven't disclosed the specific targets. But certainly, we want to be squarely solid within our ratings. So, I'd say, somewhere in that 4.0 to 4.5 is kind of the right zip code. And again, we're trending down, and I think that's directionally where we're heading.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
4 to 4.5 for WPZ. And then, for WMB?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Again, we have a sort of target out there. We have disclosed that we plan to pay down some debt, $500 million this year, and we would expect some excess coverage again in 2018 that would enable us to pay down some additional debt. So, that consolidated leverage would be coming down at the same time as PZ leverage.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And then, again, with the big change in the restructuring, just economically WMB is of course much more dependent on what WPZ does. I guess, again longer-term, what are your target coverage levels for WPZ? Is there any reason why you would retain excess cash flow there and not pay it up in distribution that would then come up to WMB?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think it's prudent to maintain some excess coverage to fund your capital as well as to provide a buffer against risk, whether it's delays in projects or anything else. And we think that the market provides attractive valuation when the market doesn't worry much about coverage. So, I think, we'll plan to maintain a sufficient amount of coverage that the market doesn't worry about it, and as well to provide some level of funding for capital.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. And then, a last one for me. You've sort of spoken about the Northeast gathering business and kind of the uplift you could see. It looks like we've got better visibility now on Rover maybe and Rainleaf (53:51) and some other big takeaway projects. How much of an impact does that have on your volumes in the Northeast there, Southwest Pennsylvania and the Utica?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Really excited about that project pushing ahead, really excited about any and all takeaway projects just because we've got so much leverage in the Northeast in terms of our gathering systems. So, excited to see that getting off of high center. And yes, I would say, the areas that are going to be enhanced by that, certainly the dry gas Utica is going to get a nice pick-up off of that. That's where a lot of that gas will come from as well as the Southwest Marcellus area as well. And so, we're starting to see a lot of those assets fall into the hands of better capitalized and really great operators up in the basin there in the Southwest PA area. And so, we really think we're going to see some big pull when Rover comes on. We saw a little bit of improvement from REX 3. We see TETCO M2, Zone M2 trading up a little bit over the Northeast Pipeline index as that opened up. And so – but I think, with Rover coming on, we'll see a lot of people preparing to meet their obligations on Rover, and we're excited to see our volume get a lift off of that.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Tom Abrams with Morgan Stanley.
Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, thanks. Just a follow-up on that balance sheet questioning. If you could start from scratch, would you have any debt at the MB level?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think it's a theoretical question. So I'm not sure how to answer that, because we...
Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Well, let's put it this way. As time goes by, why wouldn't you just continue to pay WMB down to towards zero?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Again, I think that's a policy question I think the board will have to take on in time. I think, right now, we're focused on paying down debt with our excess coverage. I think, beyond our guidance period. I think we'll have to wait and see what direction the board chooses to take. Just to kind of point out, we do have a revolver balance that is efficient to pay down. We don't have bonds that are due, so anything we do in the bonds would be open market purchases or tenders, which would likely be pretty inefficient. So, again, I think, the near-term focus will be paying down the WMB revolver.
Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
All right. And then, also on, I recall, a month or two ago that your taxpayer status was out – no taxes to 2025, maybe 2024 with the Geismar sale. In slide 12, you have a footnote there about – at least through 2020. I just wondered if that's the nature of your new guidance, or if something has changed in the general picture.
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I think, our prior guidance was, we do not expect to be a cash (56:55) payer through 2020. Beyond that will be a function of future capital investment. I think, we do have significant capital opportunities to invest, which would provide a tax shield beyond 2020. But we've not provided any guidance beyond 2020.
Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
All right. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Next to Faisel Khan at Citi.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Now, Alan, with most of the restructuring now out of the way, and sort of the balance sheet sort of getting close to where you guys want it to be, how are you thinking about acquisitions, either bolt-on acquisitions or larger transactions or are you even thinking about these sort of opportunities at all?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Faisel, we certainly are. We're certainly looking at areas up in the Northeast where there are some great synergies between various operating systems up there. And so, we certainly have got our eyes on that. I think that the market vantage points have to come together to get to a trade there. But certainly there's a lot of operational synergies to be had up there. And as any basin does as it matures, those opportunities come together. And so, I think, right now, we're continuing to focus on honing our unit operating costs being as low as we can where we are, but with an eye to the future for what kind of capital efficiencies can be gained between us and some of the systems that we have joint ventures in. So, pretty excited about the way the Northeast will roll up there. But I'd say, that's probably the primary area that we've got our eyes on, because we see so much operational synergy. It's not necessarily a financial transaction for us. It's really just the improvement in operating cash flows that we think we can get out of those areas. So, we'll continue to look at those, but obviously we have to come to a meeting of the minds between the buyer and the seller to get there.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, last question for me. Just – after the financial repositioning announcement you guys made on January 9, is there any significant change to your deferred tax asset from doing that transaction in terms of what we'll see in the 10-K when it comes out?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, but we did pick up a higher share of the depreciation deductions. So, again, depreciation deductions are now 74% claimed by Williams versus the 58% that we had previously. So, we will pick up somewhat higher shield.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Understood. Thanks.
Operator:
To Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. Thanks for sneaking me in the end here. And just wanted to touch based on the Central segment that had stepped down a bit quarter-over-quarter. And I was just wondering if you could dive into that, maybe a little bit more granularity? And let us know if you thought that could be bouncing back a bit in the first Q, also knowing that you had sold some of those assets there?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think, Jeremy, probably the primary issue there was the $23 million impact that was a pretty complicated story there. But we basically were taking a charge from the fact that we booked the MVCs from prior periods. And so, once that MVC was paid down, so there's a $23 million one-time impact there in the fourth quarter that certainly impacted Central that you wouldn't see on an ongoing basis. I don't know, Walt, do you have anything to add to that?
Walter J. Bennett - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, I think, there were some volume declines, but I think we'll see if that's holding pretty flat going forward, additional activity will keep it – any declines at bay.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great, thanks. And then, maybe just touching on the West transaction a bit there, if you could give a little bit of color as far as how you think the volumes are trending there or any synergies that you can bring to that asset with your increased ownership or other plans you might have?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Not a whole lot of synergies to be gained further there as we sit here today because we are the operator already on those assets. Certainly, I'd say, we're extracting all we can there today. So I don't really see a big pick-up in synergies. I think, really the big story there is, as Atlantic Sunrise and other projects and hopefully Constitution now start to open up that Northeast PA to market see volume growth outside of just the current JVs that we have that can utilize some of our presence in the area. And so, I think that will be a real positive for us as that area gets exposed to the market. We're very convinced that that area is going to have to come alive in a big way to keep up with the market demand once the takeaway infrastructure is built. So, we're very bullish on the area. But there's not really a whole lot to be said about operational synergies that we're not capturing.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
That's helpful. That's it from me. Thanks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. Mr. Armstrong, at this time, I would like to turn the conference back to you for any closing or additional comments.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much for joining us. Really pleased to report another strong quarter. And again, just want to thank the organization here at Williams and employees for their dedication to continuing to perform so well despite a pretty rocky year. I would tell you, we are all very excited and looking forward to 2017 and really putting the focus on growing the business as we deliver some of these big projects here in 2017. So, thank you very much for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc. Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc. Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc. John R. Dearborn - Williams Partners GP LLC Robert S. Purgason - The Williams Cos., Inc. Walter J. Bennett - The Williams Cos., Inc.
Analysts:
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams and Williams Partners Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, Dana. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Earlier this morning, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions, and we also have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Well, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We're glad you've been able to join us this morning and we look forward to discussing our third quarter results here this morning. As you can see from this quarter's results, our organization is firing on all cylinders, and it continues to capture opportunities as we execute against our proven natural gas focused strategy. We're very confident about where we stand today, and our team is aligned and excited about all the great prospects that we've got in front of us. We've been taking decisive actions to enable steady predictable growth in our EBITDA by steadily increasing our fee-based revenues, lowering our cost and positioning our portfolio of assets to capture growing natural gas volumes. We're making progress on many fronts as we work to execute on our strategy to drive predictable long-term sustainable growth. We've brought new projects online, renegotiated some win-win contracts with Chesapeake and expect to close on a new agreement in the Barnett soon. And we also completed the sale of our Canadian asset, and as you're aware, we also have now kicked off a process for our Geismar asset. That process is now in full swing. On the cost savings front, since our cost reduction efforts were initiated at the end of the first quarter this year, we've seen approximately $76 million of lower adjusted cost and expenses at WPZ versus the prior year, and that's all while continuing to add additional new projects and grow the business. Specifically, we've seen WPZ's total cost and expenses decline from 55% of 2015 adjusted EBITDA to 47% in 2016 for the first nine months. So, an important metric that we're taking into account there, and continue to push that cost component down to a lower percentage of our overall adjusted EBITDA. We continue to implement steps to further lower our cost by streamlining our organization, and to-date, head count has been reduced by a little over 13% since the beginning of this year. So today, we'll walk through our results and provide some perspective on where we are relative to guidance and financial performance. Our results here in the third quarter certainly validate the hard work of our teams across Williams. We'll also provide some update on the Atlantic Sunrise project and highlight some of the key growth drivers that are now on horizon. So, let's move on to slide two. Here as you can see, Williams Partners delivered net income of $326 million as measured by GAAP, and in terms of adjusted EBITDA, every segment of WPZ contributed to the 8% improvement over the third quarter of last year. Our DCF for the quarter was $795 million, which was an increase of 5% over the third quarter of 2015. As we've been doing consistently, we delivered fee-based revenue growth and we continue to benefit from the aggressive cost reduction activities we've been working on this year. We achieved a coverage ratio of 1.08x at WPZ for the quarter, which excludes the benefit of $150 million IDR waiver that was associated with the sale of our Canadian asset. And as you all know, that sale was finalized, I believe on September 23. Overall, the quarter's results continue to demonstrate that our strategy is on the mark, so let's just touch briefly on a few of the operating areas, first of all, in the Atlantic-Gulf. The Atlantic-Gulf continues to deliver solid results as we put projects into service that are capturing more and more of the demand on the Transco system. Our adjusted EBITDA came in at $427 million for the quarter compared with $414 million for the third quarter of last year. And for the year, Atlantic-Gulf's adjusted EBITDA increased $53 million so far year-to-date, primarily due to fee-based revenues from offshore operations and Transco's new expansion projects. The quarter also benefited from incremental volumes that came into our Mobile Bay system from the Destin Pipeline System as we were providing service to volumes that were stranded behind enterprise's path to do a processing plant. We did see increased operating expenses related to pipeline testing activities as we continue to proactively focus on safety and regulatory programs along our Transco pipeline. Obviously given the tremendous growth on the Transco system, we continue to focus on and ensure the safety and reliability of this critical piece of infrastructure. And so, solid results in the Atlantic-Gulf. As we'll see later, lots of things coming down the pike to prepare for the tremendous growth in this sector of our business. Moving on now to our Central, Northeast and West. I'd like to cover our non-regulated midstream set of businesses here because we continue to see some common themes emerging across all of these operating areas. First of all, we have grown their adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year for both the quarter and also year-to-date. As you can see from the chart on the slide, Central is up about 7%, Northeast up 3% and West up 3% on the quarter-to-quarter comparison. All three of these businesses reported lower operating cost during the quarter. Our leaders and teams are very focused on preserving operational cash flows in today's slower supply growth environment, and we continue to see the benefits of that show-up in our results. A specific note about the Northeast because I know there's always a lot of extra interest in this particular area. We continue to see steady to slightly increasing volumes there, but this area remains in significant need of incremental takeaway capacity and market in the area. We believe that both the local and the national demand growth is going to really unlock the area over the next couple of years. But in the meantime, we're staying very focused on the cost containment and achieving the best results for our customers. Getting all of this critical new midstream plays as well has us positioned for when this tremendous low cost resource really comes on in the next couple of years, and we really do believe that the natural gas demand that we're seeing on the Transco system will call on these constrained supplies once the infrastructure that connects that comes online. The unleashing of this resource and expected dramatic growth in the gathering volumes from this area represents tremendous upside beyond the more visible demand side growth that shows up in our CapEx. On the NGL-Petchem side, we saw an increase in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher olefins margins and strong operational production levels. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by $51 million to $136 million in the third quarter of 2015. And as I mentioned earlier, we also completed the sale of our Canadian asset, and we are off and running in a big way on our process to monetize Geismar. This Geismar facility and the complex there really is a great asset, and we believe it's a good time to be in the market with the asset. There's a lot of very smart players in this segment, and a recognition of just how well placed this efficient plant is in the Mississippi River market. So, let's move on now to slide three. As we've been saying, our natural gas focused strategy is proving out and our year-to-date performance certainly validates that. Year-to-date through third quarter of this year, WPZ delivered $286 million in net income and nearly $2.3 billion in DCF, up 8% over the same period last year. And we also achieved a year-to-date coverage ratio of 1.04x at WPZ here so far in 2016. I'm also pleased to report that we expect to exceed our 2016 adjusted EBITDA guidance and also expect to hold coverage above 1.0 times as measured for all of 2016, even with the expected seasonal increase in maintenance CapEx that we generally see in the fourth quarter. As you can see, all of our operating areas are ahead of where they were a year ago, and you can see the results of our focus on increased fee-based revenues, cost reductions, and the full production and higher margins coming through at Geismar. Let's move on to slide four. This is a list of a lot of what's going on, and I'm not going to go through each of these items. But really the important thing is, here is this long list of accomplishments that the team continues to execute on. And so, what's really impressive about this is all of the activity that we've got going on that's driving our growth for the future. Just to mention a few here, highlight a few. First of all, look at the number of projects that we began construction on in this quarter. And so, Dalton, Hillabee Phase 1, the New York Bay expansion, and Virginia Southside 2. Our teams really have pushed through the permitting gauntlet on these projects and are now really focused on safely constructing these important expansion projects. We also have a number of projects that were already under construction. Moving down on the list, the Geismar process, as I mentioned earlier, we have launched that process, and we're really excited about the degree of interest we're seeing there. And then finally, on the coming soon part down there, in addition to all the projects that we've got going on, we are making a move to simplify our organization further here in 2017, and we're moving from five operating areas to three operating areas, which is going to enable some further cost reductions over and above those that we captured here in 2016. Moving on to slide five, a picture now of Atlantic Sunrise. Lots of questions, of course, coming out of the announcement from FERC that they were pushing back their approval by about two months. So, Atlantic Sunrise is a very key piece of energy infrastructure that is going to drive, not just jobs in the Northeast and particularly Pennsylvania, but really the overall national economy, as these low cost, very strong gas supplies here in the Northeast are going to enable manufacturing, power generation, and a lot of new trade around the world, for markets around the world for our low-cost natural gas here in the U.S. So, the Atlantic Sunrise system really does have a unique advantage, in that it's one of the few of these major projects that takes advantage of the existing Transco infrastructure and by building the segment that we have that's just new pipeline in Pennsylvania, all contained within the State of Pennsylvania. We're going to be able to reach markets in a very significant way all the way into the Southeast markets where there's a lot of growing demand, be it coal conversions, natural gas power generation, the industrial markets and, of course, the LNG facility at Cove Point there is an important market for those supplies as well. So, we announced on last Friday that we expect to begin a portion of service during the second half of 2017 and that we've revised the targeted full in-service date for mid 2018. I would note that, as we have previously, that our financial plan further risks (13:50) the cash flows by approximately six months, and we've already adjusted our growth capital guidance to reflect this analysis. We revised these dates because FERC now anticipates the completion date of the FEIS for Atlantic Sunrise will be pushed back to December 30, 2016. This adjustment will allow more time for the agency to complete a general conformity analysis and review two minor route alternatives. Additionally, we're focused on expediting the work required to obtain other key permits within the State of Pennsylvania. To provide a little more context on this, the construction schedule on a project as large as Atlantic Sunrise is very tightly sequenced. Even a minor two-month delay on one aspect can have a ripple effect on other components of the project schedule, some of which are dependent upon lining up with a narrow environmental schedule. So the good news is, we've got about 96% of the survey work done, that means the landowners are cooperating with us in a way to get the survey work done. And we are pushing ahead to get the remaining 4% of that done. So, a lot of activity going on to get the survey work done. Of course, if you think about the way these windows work, the field survey work has to be done in a period where there's not any snow on the ground, and so that does put some risk into our schedule that, obviously, is the reason that we push some of this back. Because, if we don't get those surveys done before snowfall, and it certainly looks like that's not going to be the case, then we've got to wait to get those final surveys done once we've seen things thaw out there. So, that really is what's driving some of that scheduled push-back. So, again, seems like a simple two months, but it does complicate things, in terms of getting those surveys done in a timely-enough manner. I will say this about Atlantic Sunrise. This is a situation where the regulatory agencies are being very cautious, given all of the environmental opposition, and it's been focused around pipelines of late. We think that's prudent, and I would tell you that Governor Wolf has been very steadfast in his support for the project, and really all of the critical energy infrastructure project in Pennsylvania, and he continues to be clear in his support through that, with his legislature and with other elected officials in the state, and we really do appreciate his cooperation, as he has a lot of issues to balance. But we certainly support the Governor in making sure that the resources are developed in a way that protects the environment and the health of the citizen. And we share his commitment, and look forward to our continued work with the PADEP there, which is the regulatory agency in Pennsylvania, to meet all these objectives. So, feeling very good about the degree of cooperation and support that we're getting from the State of Pennsylvania, but it's just a matter of people being very cautious in the environment that we're operating. With that, let's move on to slide six. You can see here the key growth drivers for 2017. Of course, the obvious stuff is the full year impact of a lot of these projects that came on mid-year, and then a lot of new projects that will be coming on in 2017 that you can see listed here. And then, of course, the full year of cost reduction efforts will show up in 2017 as well as likely some additional contributions from the streamlining that I mentioned earlier. Another consideration, of course, is just the impact that a normal winter would have on the Northeast local market demand for the regional consumption there in the Northeast. And so, if you think about that, there's two ways for gas to move out of those gathering systems in the Northeast. One is the takeaway capacity and we're certainly anxious to see the latest REX expansion come on here towards the end of this year. But in addition to that, we also have the regional consumption and with the very mild winter we had last year, we are hoping to see some incremental demand that would drive gathering volumes in the Northeast as well. Moving on here to slide seven, really excited about the strengthening of our board and what's going on here in the third quarter as we've added five new members to The Williams' board and we're in the process of recruiting two additional members. The five new members are certainly energy industry experts and each brings significant experience and have unique perspectives they're bringing to the table. I can tell you firsthand that the new directors, Steve Bergstrom, Steve Chazen, Peter Ragauss, Scott Sheffield, and Bill Spence have hit the ground running and are very engaged in helping us maximize shareholder value. They're working with the rest of the highly-qualified and independent board to keep the management team accountable and focused on our execution as that continues to deliver shareholder value. I do want to take a moment here to just recognize three members of the board who have chosen to not stand for reelection at our Annual Meeting in November in order to support our ongoing board refreshment efforts. And that is Joe Cleveland, John Hagg, Juanita Hinshaw, and really all three have given tremendous service to Williams over the years. They've been involved with us and we're extremely grateful for their leadership, commitment to the company and to our stockholders. Williams' stockholders can certainly be confident that this independent board is working diligently on its behalf and we, as a management team, are really excited about that. With that, we'll move on to slide eight. So, today the premier natural gas asset base in the nation is delivering fee-based revenue that amounts to about 93% of WPZ's gross margin. There's tremendous demand growth occurring and continuing to come down the pike, and Transco is the energy lifeline that physically connects Williams to that growth. The team has delivered continuous growth and the third quarter of 2016 is no exception. We believe that the natural gas focused strategy that we're executing on has us exactly where we need to be today and well-positioned for a large degree of upside in the future as the natural gas market grows on the back of this very low-cost resource base, and we'll really draw on the Northeast and drive strong growth in our volumes in the Northeast, as that occurs. We're continuing to capture fee-based opportunities. We're reinvesting in Williams' Partners and we've taken swift, decisive actions to strengthen the balance sheet, reduce risk, and focus on driving shareholder value. So, once again, we thank you very much for joining us today. And, with that, let's move on to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll go first to T.J. Schultz with RBC Capital Markets.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks. Maybe if I can just start with Geismar, just any color at this point on your bent toward an outright sale or to try to convert to a tolling structure. And then if you could just discuss what type of counterparties you're engaging with under each scenario, that may be helpful, too. Thanks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Thank you very much for the question. We remain open. We're going to look to whatever the best value is in terms of those two opportunities. I would say on the sell side, of course, it's going to be a party that we're confident that can close the transaction swiftly and puts a very best value proposition on the table. As to the tolling arrangement, a little more dependent on the personal nature there because I think somebody we would be involved with for the long term and, of course, it would have to be somebody with a strong credit to stand behind the obligations of the tolling agreement. So, I would just say we remain open to both, but we'll have to see what the best value comes through there. I will say really long, long and large list of parties engaging with us on that, and we're really excited to see the way that asset is positioned in the market right now.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks. I guess, just one more on Atlantic Sunrise with that push-out, kind of two parts. I guess, first, with that risked I think in your financial plan by six months, do you essentially have that full service in your plan for the beginning of 2019? And then the second part, just given that timeline or even if we assume it comes online in mid-2018, I guess, the question is just really around the DRIP or more WMB support, does that change the timing or how long or what degree you would need to keep participating? Or is there any other support you may need in 2018 as you kind of – keeping that IG rating at WPZ?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Great. Thank you very much for the question. I'll take the first part of that and I'll turn the second half over there to Don for the financing side of that. In terms of the schedule, I think couple of key things that are coming through in the change in the schedule. First of all, really excited to be announcing that we're going to be able to bring on the mainline portion of that project, which is obviously really important in the Northeast, to take gas out of the Northeast down into the Southeast markets that we'll be able to do that in the second half of 2017. So, that's pretty exciting. Then there's another section that we likely would be able to bring on, which would be the pipeline, the new pipeline itself that would come on second and as soon as it was constructed would come on second. And then finally, and this is where that final date that we talk about would be the compressor stations that are on the new pipeline, not the existing but brand new compressor stations that would come on to add some incremental volume to the project. And that part would come on six months after the mid-2018 so whether you want to call that, end of 2018 or first part of 2019 is going to splitting hairs a little bit there perhaps, but that is what our expectation are. But I think very important is the amount of volumes that we can bring on with the first section coming online in the second half of 2017 and then later the pipeline section that would be carrying gas out of the Susquehanna County and Bradford County areas, and that would be coming on ahead of that final section, which would be in our risk financial segment would be either very end of 2018. And so, I think in terms of the clarifying that our team is very focused on bringing this mid-2018 date to reality. But, as always, we put further financial risk into our plan to allow for all the regulatory uncertainties that all of us in the pipeline industry are facing these days. So, with that, I'll turn it over to Don to talk about the financing side.
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Thanks, Alan. Certainly, the target date change or our financial plan date change related to ASR reduces the 2017 CapEx and related financing needs somewhat. We're not making any, I'll call it, formal change in our financing plans at this point as we continue to drive our credit metrics up or improve, I'll say it that way, in an effort to ensure that we have strong credit metrics, we get credit from the agencies, and we continue to delever WPZ and WMB. But nonetheless, the fact that there's less of a bubble in 2017 I think is helpful in terms of 2017's financing plan. But I think, as you point out, it does push some of the capital into 2018. As to how we'll finance that, we're not prepared to provide any guidance on that today.
T.J. Schultz - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll go next to Brandon Blossman with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Just a quick follow-up on Atlantic Sunrise. So, I guess, one, it's (27:39) to say that the vast majority of the permitting or regulatory risk resides with the greenfield portion of the pipe and not the new compression stations on the mainline, is that correct?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That is correct. And just to be clear, most of the work on the mainline is just turning around. And for those involved in the project, they'll scold me on this when I say just, but it's a matter of redoing a lot of the station piping on those existing compressor sites that is required at the second half of 2017 in-service for the mainline.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
And then as we think about second half 2018 in-service for mainline reversals, how should we think about EBITDA associated with that? And in terms of contracts or counterparties and who can actually flow on that portion of the line?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Of course, we'll be working through that. I would tell you that we've seen a lot of strong interest and people have started to acknowledge that that likely would occur, and that's what we've done in the past as well. When we've had projects come on that have involved mainline, we opened up that capacity, as it's been made available. So, we don't have any specifics on that yet in terms of how much that EBITDA would be, but it will allow for some pretty significant flows to the South coming out of the mainline in Southeast Pennsylvania area there. So, other big interconnects coming off of other pipelines will now have a way South. And I think if you think about how the demand would look, all you need to look at is Zone 6 on Transco versus the Southeast market, you see that differential there, and you would see the amount of demand that would be available for that capacity. So, we're not going to pin that down yet because we haven't finalized the negotiations for that but, obviously, there's plenty of demand for that service.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thanks, Alan. And then switching gears back to Geismar, obviously, a very good quarter, Q3. Last quarter, Q2, you had said or mentioned that at least to some degree you're holding back inventory to sell onto Q3 on expectations of better margins. Obviously, you got that. Just in terms of capacity factors in-quarter for Geismar and inventory levels, are you thinking about anything like that again for Q4, in terms of holding back some production?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
I'll turn that to John Dearborn, who is on the line with us.
John R. Dearborn - Williams Partners GP LLC:
Yeah. Thanks, Brandon, and thanks for your interest in Geismar. Geismar has been running extraordinarily well, very reliably, and we're really pleased to be able to deliver ethylene again reliably to the market, and we've proven that out now for a year. As to your specific question about inventory, we came out of the first quarter with about 30 million pounds of inventory. We sold our full production during this past quarter. We held some inventory coming through this quarter with an expectation that – we pushed that expectation out into the fourth quarter, because we still do have a belief that some of these crackers that have been challenged in the third quarter will remain to be challenged in the fourth, and we may still see some better margin. So we actually, coming through the third quarter, built a little bit of inventory here on hopes that now the fourth quarter is going to give us a little bit of a better return on that.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Perfect. Thank you, John. Great color. That's it for me.
John R. Dearborn - Williams Partners GP LLC:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you, Brandon.
Operator:
We'll go next to Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Maybe just on the earnings, if I could start with Atlantic-Gulf. You had a big step up in your non-regulated fee revenues versus what you did in the second quarter of 2016. I'm just trying to figure out the drivers there. Is this the new run rate? And then, I think you mentioned you got more volumes on Destin as well, because of Pascagoula being down. Maybe you can give us a number there, on how much that impacted you?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Thank you for the question. Certainly, the big driver for second versus third quarter and 3Q was having both the Tubular Bells business online, and remember, that had 30 days of shut-in in the second quarter as we tied in – as we did some of the work for the tie-in on Gunflint during the second quarter. So second quarter was abnormally low because of that big shut-in. But here in the third quarter, both Kodiak, Gunflint, and Tubular Bells were all producing. And so some improvements are going on out there. In fact, we've completed the mechanical completion on the second phase of the Gunflint capacity out there, so a lot of important work still going on out there in terms of enabling further flows. So, that was a big driver. Then, as we did mention, the Pascagoula plant was down, and our team went to work very quickly to make some big offshore interconnect in the July timeframe, June and July timeframe, that enabled us to bring that gas in very quickly. So great work on the team's part of getting that work, first getting it permitted, and then very quickly bringing it on. So, that didn't just fall on our laps, it was great work on the team's part to get that in. We expect that, I think, enterprise have said they expect to start bringing Pascagoula back up in December now. And so, we would expect to get a couple of months in now here in the fourth quarter from that. And, in terms of impact, I don't think we specifically said how much that was, but you can see some of the impact to our volume, I think it was about 200 million a day, maybe 210 million of volume that's come in to the system from that. Just to get an idea of what that's done to gathering volumes in the Eastern Gulf.
John R. Dearborn - Williams Partners GP LLC:
Alan, some of that shows up in fee revenues, some of that shows up in liquids margin as well. So, it's not all impacting fee revenue, I might just point that out.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks, John.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's very helpful. Thank you. And then, if we can just talk through your renewed Barnett gathering agreement. Some of the parameters or assumptions you are making to get to that $240 million loss of undiscounted cash flows, I think you put in the press release. So, there are volume assumptions behind that. Can you quantify what percentage of Henry Hub the new gathering agreement's at? Maybe what other things we should be thinking about in terms of rig count or what not to get to that number?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Let me have Bob Purgason take that, please?
Robert S. Purgason - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Let me just kind of recap what we've done. Is right – we traded the minimum volume commitment numbers for, in essence, a percentage-of-NYMEX contract. For competitive reasons, we're not ready to say what percentage of NYMEX that is, but it's set to, in fact, hopefully incent the drill bit. In addition, we have contractual obligations for the producer there to spend certain amounts of money on drilling and recompletion work during the next two years of the contract. So, we're anticipating that we'll at least lessen the decline, maybe even get some pick up, depending on what the completion technology does today. And it's really – the cash difference that we indicated was the difference between that absolutely no MVC and what our projected volume and revenue difference was during the period through mid-2019, when the MVCs ended. On a present value basis, we picked that up and it's a present value neutral transaction to us, but we did have a slight cash difference in the next two years.
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And this is Don. I'll just add that the price assumption that we had, I think, when we put out the disclosure was basically forward strip prices at the time. And a modest amount of arresting of the decline. So, again, the drilling that Bob described would slow the decline somewhat.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's great. And then, just a follow-up on Atlantic Sunrise. So, are you in a position where you can tell us the amount of volume you'll actually move on these, sounds like three phases, the main line and then the new pipeline and then the compression, or are you still working through that?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes, we are. So, we haven't detailed that out yet. We are working on that. I would tell you that, of course, the mainline will be prepared for – move all of the volume South of the project, but it's got to have deliveries from the North, pressures from the North to be able to do that. So that'll be somewhat dependent on what comes in from other interconnects in terms of really getting down to a specific volume coming from the Northeast. So, said another way, it's not going to be finite because we don't know exactly what the other interconnects are capable of delivering into that. Secondly, the pipeline portion, what's called the Central Penn and we just referred to as Northcentral Penn coming out of Susquehanna County, that pipeline will be capable of delivering a very large portion of the volumes from the North without the compression during most of the year. And so, in other words, just depending on other operating conditions on the pipeline, but it will be a very substantial portion of the available volumes from the North.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. But you're not upsizing the site? In other words, the 1.7 dekatherms a day I think, that is still confident for (37:59).
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That is correct. That's right.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
All right. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Just a couple of quick clarifications to some of your earlier responses. When you had said that there was a lot of interest in Geismar, does that mean that the data room is now open and people have actually expressed interest formally or is it just more in conversations?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. The formal. We have opened that and we're in the process of getting all the NDRs (38:38) resolved, but that process hasn't actually kicked off.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. And then in some of your responses about the Atlantic-Gulf performance, I was wondering if I can ask the question in a different way. The level of EBITDA generation this quarter, does that fully reflect the run rate for the new plants that came online, Kodiak and so forth? Or is there a little bit more to step up there as well too?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. We always hate to get ahead of the producers and their announcements of volumes out there. But I would tell you, I think, Hess has been pretty clear that they've been doing some rework on their wells out there on the Tubular Bells field. And as well, as I mentioned earlier, we did in the quarter complete – get to the mechanical completion part for the Phase 2 of Gunflint – for Gunflint, which allows additional capacity for both Gunflint and Tubular Bells out there. So, we would expect to see some improved volumes coming on here into the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year from those prospects.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And one last final question. Alan, you guys have been fairly successful in bringing down cost for over a year at this stage right now if I sort of think about it. Your head count is down 13% I think you said earlier in the call. Should we think about this kind of level of O&M and SG&A as kind of the go forward rate? Or do you see incremental opportunities to bring down costs further on a go forward basis? How should we think about this sequentially I guess is my question.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you. First of all, I'll talk about the kind of the two issues that balance that. First of all, on the overhead and management side, our team is very committed to continuing to put pressure against the overhead cost side of our business, as well as the direct operating expense. When you go into an area, for instance like the Northeast, and you are rapidly growing things, it's very hard to really streamline your operations and really focus on cost reduction, at the same time you're trying to build up staff, training people and get your operation safe and reliable. And so, that business, as it's gained its scale and its footprint is very well positioned and out to really take out some cost, likewise our Central area has just done a tremendous job there because, if you think about the pattern of growth and build out that had gone there for several years, that has slowed down in terms of that pattern of build out. And so, the management team has done a great job of redirecting their focus as a management team on safe and reliable and even more cost efficient operations. And of course, out West, that team has taken that on kind of as their mantra and they're very, very focused on constantly lowering their unit cost. So, that's really driving a lot of that in terms of the cost reduction. I do think it's sustainable on the one hand. On the other hand, I would tell you that as we go into the pipeline operations, a lot of need to make sure that these pipelines are maintained extremely well. And I always tell people, I think that's a really terrible place to try to save money is in the place of doing a great job of maintaining your assets safely and particularly in these critical areas along the Transco and Northwest Pipeline and Gulfstream routes. And so, that's an area that I think, as you've seen a little bit in this quarter, we had a lot of hydro testing and repairs on the Leidy system and quite frankly we're not going to shy away from improving the system there whenever we have an opportunity to do that. And so, that's the cost side that will probably continue to pressure us up on the one side, but I think on the cost efficiency side and overall day-to-day cost, we'll continue to have opportunity to push that down.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Cool. All right, Alan. Thank you very much. Really appreciate the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Faisel Khan with Citi.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. Good morning. Just a few questions. First, on the balance sheet, you guys are clipping away as you're revolving your debt balance at the WMB level, looks like $260 million a quarter. How long – I guess, what's the game plan for the pay down of debt at the MB level? How far do you want to take that debt level down?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Faisel, this is Don. I think the amount that we're able to take it down in the quarter was aided by the Canadian proceeds. So, we don't see that same opportunity over the next several quarters. We do have a plan to, I would say, that continue to chip away at The Williams debt. But it'll be at a modest pace for the foreseeable future.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Got you. And then the $250 million investment in WPZ common units, were there any other third-parties that participated in that placement?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That was a private placement. It wasn't offered to any third-parties. We'll take a look at what the DRIP program that will be upcoming here in the very near future. We'll see what that holds.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And then on the cost of the Sunrise project, was there any change in the cost given the slight pushback in the timeline?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. We still are maintaining our cost targets on that front.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And then, if I look at – going back to your, Alan, your comments around the volumes that will come online in the second half. So, is it fair to say that on the Leidy Southeast line which is, I guess, 0.5 Bcf a day that you'll be able to flow that entire volume down South in the second half of 2017? I think that's what I was trying to figure out if you're getting towards, but maybe I got it wrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. It's kind of hard to know exactly who will take that space on the main line. So, anybody that's got gas trapped in Zone 6 that can get in into the system. So, you have, of course, you have the big Texas Eastern TEMAX project that connects just north of this point. And so, there's a lot of – the expansion goes just north of that point. So, there's a lot of big interconnects like that that could supply gas into this and it'll just be a question of who wants to – where the gas is the cheapest I suspect as to where – whoever takes that capacity and utilizes that capacity, which would likely be the existing holders of the capacity for the full project. I suspect that given in the money that will be, I would be surprised if they don't take that. And if they do, it's just going to be a matter of where they buy the cheapest gas in the area to move it south.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
And just how far south was that move, I guess from Station 210 or 195, and how far south will you be able to move it in the second half of 2017?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. So, that will be the full expansion that goes all the way to Station 85 at its further extent. And of course, one of the big delivery points there is to the Cove Point delivery point is one of the big takeaways for that. But the capacity kind of as designed goes all the way to Station 85.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Got you. And the last question from me. Just on the MVC in the quarter, I guess if I look at the adjustments or the add backs, that add back is a cash item or a non-cash item that's being actually added to adjusted EBITDA?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Faisel, in the quarter, that's a non-cash item, so it's, I'll call it, a contractually expected MVC. Now, that will all be settled as we close the Barnett transaction with that $754 million payment.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Got you. Great. Thanks, guys.
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yes.
Operator:
We'll go next to Darren Horowitz with Raymond James.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Good morning, guys. Alan, considering the currently expected Northeast takeaway project in-service dates across the board on the east side of the Marcellus and Utica, what impact do you think that's going to have on basis differentials over the next few quarters, specifically Dominion South, TETCO M2 versus Henry Hub? And more importantly, how do you think the Northeast market gets further rationalized regarding the amount of marketed pipe capacity versus that big growing magnitude of supply growth that's waiting on pipe to get out of the basin?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think that's such a complex issue because it's very dependent on where the gas is. It's very dependent on what outlet markets each of that gathering volumes. I would say some of the big players that have done a great job, and I would include Cabot in that group that have done a great job of going out and finding incremental markets, whether it's local power generation that's coming on and have really used their scale to go out aggressively and capture some of those markets will be the parties that are advantaged. And so, this isn't the first time we as an industry have seen something like this. We saw this in the Rockies back when we had a $2.75 basis differential, and it worked itself out over time. People started to think it was never going to – we were never going to come over that barrier. And, today, we sit there with basis differentials of around 5%, often less in the Rockies today. So, I think we'll eventually get there. But it is a complex question, just given all the number of projects that are coming on and the interconnectivity of the pipelines to be able to address that. So, I would say that I think the Southwest markets probably are going to be picking up hopefully the REX expansion here in the very near future, which will be helpful to that area. And then, I think Atlantic Sunrise will be the next big adder to that area as we unload all that gas trapped up in Zone 6 on Transco with those projects coming online. And I do think that will – to your question, I do think that Atlantic Sunrise coming on will improve the Dominion South basis just because you got so much capacity between coming over on the TEMAX project that will have a chance to move South as well. That's pretty well trapped up there in that Zone 6 area today. So, I think it's going to take time for all these projects to come on, but I do think that we will see that basis collapse pretty substantially as we get into 2018.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Okay. And then as a follow-up, just quickly on the discussion around Zone 6 on Transco, thinking about, as you mentioned, all that gas trapped behind the pipe. Over the next few quarters, what do you think that means for potential IT opportunities either back-haul initiatives at better economics or maybe just incremental EBITDA pull-through from walk-up shippers that are trying to arb basis? How do you think that plays out specifically for Northeast G&P profitability over the next couple of quarters?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. I think the market need to take advantage any time there is any little opportunity. And I would tell you, I think the market has been in this situation long enough now up there. It's probably rooted out most of the easy stuff in terms of little IT. Now, Transco is a good example of that where we've had Leidy limited on capacity here most of the summer. And that just got released and so that was held back because we had some pressure limitations on that pipeline that we needed to do some inspection before we returned to full pressure. We've done that. And so, that's a big – will be a positive in terms of incremental volumes out of the area. I actually think the biggest driver for incremental volumes out of the area is going to be the local load, as we hopefully have a more normal winner in the Northeast. That's actually going to allow for the local load to absorb some of that gas. And if that occurs, there will be some incremental IT opportunities on days when we could move the volumes out of the system because we've got good pressures and good load in the area. So, I think that's what you – probably the biggest driver for incremental IT is probably local load in the basin.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll go next to Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital Markets.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks. Most of my questions have been hit. I had one quick follow-up. On Geismar, as you sort of further the strategic alternatives here, do you have a sense for when you will choose to go either way, with a toll or a sale?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Again, it'd be sometime when we see all the bids in the door, but I would expect that'd be towards the end of the first quarter, probably, before we would know which way we were going on them.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning, Sharon.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I was wondering if you could touch on, I guess, the new G&P contracts in the Powder River Basin and the potential impacts on cash flow, as well as any discussions about re-contracting in the Eagle Ford with Chesapeake?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah, sure. I'll take the Eagle Ford question, and I'll let Walt Bennett take the Niobrara question. On the Eagle Ford, I would just say that there's a lot of talk about that, but I think from our perspective, we're pretty happy with where we sit there. And we think that there's good business to be had by increasing volumes in the area which will, of course, serve to lower the rate just through lower volumes. And so, there may be some opportunity as we found in other areas, there may be some opportunities for marginal improvement there. But I think, from our perspective, we like the business out there and are anxious to see Chesapeake continue to be more and more successful, as they have been in their technical accomplishments out there. And so, we're excited to continue to work with them to see those volumes expand. And I'll turn the Niobrara question back to Walt.
Walter J. Bennett - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Thank you, Alan. So, on the Niobrara contract that we have agreement of terms on now, and we're working to finalize that into a definitive agreement. The way to think about that is that that will keep EBITDA near-term pretty steady for that gathering and processing system. And what we did in the agreement with Chesapeake is really aligned both the interests of Chesapeake and Jackalope, which is the JV between Williams and Crestwood, to make sure that it was incenting development of some of the other formations there. So, we got dedication of additional formations that we didn't have previously, and it allows Chesapeake to go out and explore those economically and see what the upside may be. So, as I said, it will be pretty consistent for EBITDA in the near term, and then there's definitely potential longer term as those new zones get explored, and hopefully Chesapeake is very successful at that.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks. That's helpful.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Great. Thanks, Walt.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And just another question in terms of guidance. Given the strong quarter as well as your project updates, any change in 2016 guidance, as well as your leverage targets and potential distribution growth target for 2018?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. No, we haven't put anything out beyond 2016. And as I mentioned in my comments, we do expect to exceed the earlier guidance that we put out for 2016, but we haven't put a specific number on that. I think our business, if you look at how steady we've been in growing the business, I think it's fairly predictable here as we go – within a fairly tight range as we go into 2016 – or sorry, as we end 2016 – but we certainly expect to beat the earlier guidance for 2016. And we'll be making some decisions about when we announce the 2017 number, but certainly would intend to do that by the time we announce the fourth quarter where – either at the time we announce fourth quarter results or before that, for 2017. So, that's about all we have to offer on that.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
On Geismar – and I appreciate the update on the timing on that. If you did go up for a sale versus long-term tolling, how do you envision the impact on the DRIP with that? Could you materially reduce the amount of equity being raised through 2017?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Craig, this is Don. I think it would depend on the sales price, and we would likely have a conversation with the rating agencies as well. So, obviously, we can lose EBITDA in the process. But qualitatively, the EBITDA is margin EBITDA, so just depending on where margins are. So, I think that will be something we'll decide once we see what the numbers look like from the process, and then take a look at what we think that means and have a conversation with the agencies.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Well, on that note, Don, obviously, given your enterprise multiple, a Geismar sale would be cash flow dilutive, but nobody is going to give those cash flows based on margins at the same kind of credit that they would, all these fee-based projects you're bringing on over the next couple of years, that could be being built at similar multiples. So, how much credit do you see the rating agencies giving you in terms of just derisking the business with the Geismar sale?
Donald R. Chappel - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Craig, I think that's unknown at this point. So, I think that will be dependent on kind of where margins are and really the rating agency point of view. So, you'd have to stay tuned for that. I think that's something that we'll know as we get closer to the end of the first quarter.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay. And last question. Any updates on the broader industry M&A process?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Craig, no updates on that. I will say in terms of your prior question, we'll be down to around, I think, 2.5% of our business if we execute on a Geismar sale as well as the Canadian sale will be down to around 2.5% of our gross margin coming from direct commodity margins. And so, we would expect that certainly deserves some attention by the rating agencies. And so, I appreciate you pointing that out. But no, we don't have any updates on broader M&A picture.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Becca Followill with the U.S. Capital Advisors.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Good morning.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Just back on Atlantic Sunrise, can you – I know you talked a little bit about volumes. Can you talk about when you start getting paid when the contracts kick in on the project? Does it wait until the entire thing is done or at least the portion that's without the compression in Pennsylvania?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, Becca. The way that would work is that – and as we've done in past situations, it would just be putting capacity and early in-service and people could elect, if they chose to, to pay the full contracted rate for the project to – for that portion of the service that's made available early. So, that's the way that works.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
So, you're saying that you wouldn't get the contracted volumes until mid-2018 and it would be IT in the interim?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No. The same service would be made available. Of course, that goes through a FERC process, just to be very clear. So, it's kind of not prudent for us to predict exactly how the FERC would (01:00:46). But in previous situations, we've been able to sell that service for whoever wants to take that firm available capacity in the earliest since they have a limited service, they don't have the full extent of the service available to them. Again, that is subject to the FERC's determination on that as we would apply to put portions in service early.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
And then can you clarify, in the Pennsylvania portion of the line, how much capacity the compression adds?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
That's very determined by the pressures on the downstream system and whether the system is operating full design pressure. If the system is operating at normal operating conditions, it would be pretty substantial in getting up near 80% to 90% of the volumes. And on below normal days, even higher than that without that compression (01:01:49).
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
I think I'll follow-up because I'm unclear on that answer. And then, do you have any – how much volumes are shut in on your system in the Northeast in Q3?
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
No, we're not providing that this quarter. And mostly just because our customers have not wanted us to be advertising what that is for the benefits of their markets and we certainly want to be respectful of that. I will say, back on your earlier question, it's simply a matter that you have a pipeline in service, the compression is designed to make sure that you can have adequate pressures on the system and deliver at full design situation. So, when the pipeline does go into service, but you may not be at full peak design demands on the system, obviously, you can move more gas when you're off peak. And so, that's the reason that's not a simple question. I mean, it's very dependent on what the operating conditions are on the pipeline at the time.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Alan for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Okay. Well, great. Well, thank you all very much. I do have one thing to add here, just a congratulations to our team that has been working so hard to gain closure on the Barnett transaction with Total. So, we do have a new large customer there in the Barnett via Total as that has closed here this morning. And so, congratulations to our team that has worked so hard to get that closed and we're excited to be working with Total to improve their returns and volumes on that system. So, thank you all very much for joining us and look forward to speaking to you in the fourth quarter. Bye.
Operator:
Again, that does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director James E. Scheel - Senior VP-Northeast Gathering & Processing
Analysts:
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams and Williams Partners Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations:
Yeah. Thanks, Keith. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions, and we also have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We're certainly glad to have you here this morning. And we've got quite a bit of information to go through, and we do have a tight timeline. So I'll try to move through this pretty quickly and then turn it over to Don for some comments, and I'll come back and close. So I'd like to start off today just telling you something I'm very proud of relative to Williams, and really that is how this organization has stuck together and despite a lot of the upstairs issues and a lot of the distractions has remained very focused on executing our strategy, which our entire team is very excited about and just couldn't be more proud of the way the organization has really rallied and is absolutely all in on executing what we think is by far the best strategy in the industry. And so this focus that we've had certainly showed up here in the second quarter and we continue to see some great execution on all these projects that we have coming to fruition and tremendous amount of work going on up and down the system right now, particularly, on the Transco system, as we expand that out to meet all the growing demands there. So I would tell you that as well in addition to the employee base, I would tell you very thankful for the board and their commitment and very active engaged board right now, working very hard, overseeing the execution of our plan and our strategy and very much appreciate their engagement as well. So the plan for today's call is to walk you through our strong second quarter results and then discuss our execution on key initiatives and growth projects. Don Chappel will discuss the immediate measures that we're implementing to enhance value, strengthen the WPZ credit profile and fund a significant portfolio of really big large scale fee-based projects and all while maintaining flexibility to review financial and operational plans. So we're going to – these measures, you'll see as we go through the DRIP program for Williams Partners. And as you've seen in our earnings release, we're also announcing a dividend reduction at Williams and the new level of our dividend will allow Williams to retain about $1.3 billion annually and that will be reinvested back into Williams Partners. So really think this is a great answer for bringing us the right cost of capital to go invest against all these great growth projects that we have as the natural gas market and the demand side continues to expand out. Moving on to slide two here, we'll talk about the quarter. As you'll recall, in the first quarter of the year, we launched several actions to address the realities that we had as we saw a lot slower growth going on in the key supply areas as the demand side was building out, but the production side really was starting to see some pretty reduced activity even in the best basins here in the nation. So, as a result of that, we really focused on two things that we talked about in the first quarter. One was our asset sales, and we talked about getting our asset sales done with in excess of $1 billion in asset sales, and we also talked about cost reductions. We made great progress on both of those in the quarter. First of all, we expect here in the third quarter now to finalize an agreement to sell the Canadian business, and the expected proceeds on that in excess of $1 billion, as we told you, and in addition to that, Williams Partners' share of that sale is expected to be in excess of $800 million. On the cost side, really terrific execution on the team's part here, and we went after those costs right at the end of the first quarter. We took some action. We continue to take action across the organization and showing up here pretty dramatically, here in the second quarter, with $55 million lower O&M and G&A expenses than we had in the second quarter of 2015. And I would tell you that's even on top of the growth in our business. And so we've certainly been adding assets and growing the business, and despite that we were able to bring our costs in. We continue to find opportunities to reduce costs further and so we're really excited about the way the organization has responded and the great progress on this front. And more importantly for our investors, we're pleased to deliver the adjusted EBITDA at WPZ of $1.065 billion. And this was about a 6% increase over the second quarter of last year, and this is the now fifth quarter in a row delivering adjusted EBITDA of more than $1 billion. And so, certainly, despite the challenging market conditions, our business of moving natural gas continues to expand, and we continue to take advantage of that. We also had strong quarterly performance in our distributable cash flow at WPZ, which came in at $737 million, which was up 5% from the same quarter last year. And very importantly, our cash distribution coverage was 1.02 here in the second quarter, which is exactly what it was in the first quarter of 2016 as well. So I mentioned back in May that Williams has delivered a strong – a long string of quarters with year-over-year increases in what we now refer to as adjusted EBITDA. We used to call it segment profit plus DD&A. But if you look to that and compare it into the prior year's quarter, we now have 11 consecutive quarters where we've shown improvement in that. And that, of course, is despite a pretty significant decline in unit commodity margins over this period. Of course, that's been driven by our fee-based revenue growth and our ability to continue to control cost in this environment. So with that, let me highlight some of the strong performance delivered from the operating areas this quarter. I'd note that all five of our areas are showing year-to-date improvement and, however, here just starting with the quarter, you can see Atlantic Gulf actually came in a little bit lower than the second quarter of last year. But I would tell you this is really for good reason and according to plans as we had a month-long shutdown of the Gulfstar tie facility, which allowed us to get the Gunflint tieback made. That tieback was made – done very safely. We had over 1 million hour, man-hours of work, making that tie-in, and we had zero reportable incidents on that effort. So great job by the team getting that work done safely. And here, as we look into the third quarter, we're going to enjoy both the Tubular Bells facility coming back or Tubular Bells Field coming back on Gulfstar as well as Gunflint, and we also enjoyed Kodiak a bit for the quarter, but we'll see that come back here as well. Moving onto the Central and Northeast and West, really going to combine all three of these because it's really kind of the same story. Steady as she goes business and the improvements were primarily driven by the team's ability to go after costs during the period. So continued very, very well positioned as the natural gas market start to pull on these areas, but nice to see the growth at 5%, 8%, and 2% better in the Central, Northeast, and West, again, driven mostly by lower cost and volumes holding up very well despite the pressures on gas prices. So a great job of the teams continuing to operate low cost and in a safe manner. In the NGL & Petchem area, our second quarter GAAP results were affected by a held-for-sale non-cash impairment related to our Canadian assets, and we reported $419 million decrease in segment performance as measured by modified EBITDA. But as we look at the adjusted EBITDA, that actually increased by $47 million or a 142%, which reflected the higher fee-based revenues. That was a lot driven by the Horizon project coming on up in Canada, olefins margins and lower operating costs in this segment as well. Geismar actually saw a very strong operational production levels and we did have a little bit of lower ethylene prices during the quarter, but our sales volumes, you'll know, were quite a bit lower or lower than our production volumes if you get into the details there. And so we did hold back some inventory during the quarter as we expected the ethylene prices to improve in the third quarter due to a number of extended outages on turnarounds from a lot of the competing plants in the Gulf Coast. And we're fortunate enough to have called that right and we have seen a price improvement here in the third quarter. And of course, that benefit will show up here as we sell off some of that inventory from 2Q in 3Q. Moving on to slide four, every quarter we review a list of our key milestones and, for me and the leadership team as well, it's an opportunity to highlight how the teams across Williams are executing. And if you're a regular participant on these calls, you know we just keep adding milestones quarter-after-quarter. So let's take a quick look at the 2Q list. And I would tell you this list, as I said, just keeps expanding in terms of the number of opportunities off Transco. We did receive FERC approval for the Garden State Project and so this is to increase some new demand in New Jersey, the New York Bay Expansion, and that's an expansion right on top of our Rockaway Lateral last year, another expansion on that for $115 million a day, and we did receive FERC approval for that as well. Virginia Southside II which is serving a major new gas-fired power generation complex there in Virginia, and Virginia Southside I is in service. This is another expansion on that project as well already and we received FERC approval for that during the quarter. The Northeast Supply Enhancement, really exciting project, really big investment for us, and that's $400 million a day expansion that's going to continue to take on new gas demands up in the very far northern reaches of our system. And so, we did close a binding open season on that. That project's moving ahead, again a very large investment for us. And then in addition to that, we have a lot of projects that are ongoing. We have the Gulf Trace project that is under construction, and construction is going very well on that. That's mostly a Louisiana area project. We also expect here in the very near future FERC approval for the Dalton lateral. So that's a big lateral that goes from the southern part of Atlanta up to the very northern reaches of Georgia, and we expect to begin construction on that in the fourth quarter. So lots of new things going on here in terms of construction across all of these projects. And our cost reductions are ahead of plan as I mentioned earlier, and we're continuing to find even more ways to increase those cost savings. In terms of coming soon, things that will drive us here in the near term, happy to report that our Rock Springs facility, another expansion off of Transco to a power plant in Maryland. That was brought in service August 1. Most of that work was done, completed back in the second quarter, but per the contract, ready to go in service here now August 1 and is in service. On the Gunflint tieback as I mentioned, that's – really will drive our third quarter pretty substantially, and so we're excited about that. And so we also have, I would tell you, some other drivers here for the third quarter. We'll get a full quarter of Kodiak up and flowing. We also are enjoying the – some additional incremental volumes that came onto our system as a result of the Pascagoula plant outage, and so we'll see a nice improvement on influx of volumes into our Mobile Bay systems as well for that period. So a lot of great things that are coming together here for the third quarter. Moving on to slide five, this is just a look now at really the – some of the big investments that we've got going on and you can kind of see by year how those pile up. So a lot of what I just mentioned, but this kind of shows what it looks like in terms of cumulative capital that will be placed in service. And so, I think the really big takeaway that investors should have here is this is very clear and identifiable growth in our business that's coming from all these fully-contracted projects. So we've got a couple of billion dollars this year, a little over $3 billion next year, and about two-thirds, a little more than two-thirds of that is coming from these big regulated projects and they are going to really drive growth well beyond 2017. So, next I'm going to turn it over here to Don to talk about the new program, the new financing plans. But before I do, I just want to remind you, it really is important that our investors understand how critical the expansion of natural gas markets are to our strategy, and we are very confident that that's occurring, certainly all the projects that we've listed on Transco. But we think those are going to continue to come and are going to come on the backs of low-price natural gas and, ultimately, all of that demand pull is going to pull out of the great basins that we're exposed to on the supply side. So I would say for the next couple of years the growth is going to be coming largely from the demand side, but when that demand shows up the volumes have to flow behind that and we're extremely well positioned to capture that on the back end. So with that, I'll turn it over to Don to talk about our new financing plan.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Thanks, Alan, and good morning. I'll just run through the slide six fairly quickly. It hits a number of the points included in our press release. And again, these actions were designed to enhance value at both WPZ and WMB and strengthen the credit profile and maintain investment grade ratings at WPZ as well as fund the significant portfolio of fee-based growth projects at Williams Partners. It totals about $5 billion in the 2016-2017 timeframe with the vast majority of that being Transco related. So first, Williams announced that it planned to reinvest $1.7 billion in WPZ through 2017. That reinvestment is funded by retaining cash flow that was previously paid out in the form of a dividend. The dividend reduction totals $1.3 billion annually, a 69% reduction, and the new dividend level at $0.80 represents about a 3.5% yield in terms of where we've been trading here the last couple of days and we think that's a level we'll continue to attract investors that are interested in a meaningful dividend. WPZ will maintain its current $0.85 per quarter, or $3.40 annual, dividend through 2017 and then expect to resume some level of distribution growth in 2018. As I mentioned, we expect our actions to significantly improve the credit profile, again, with $1.3 billion of cash being retained by Williams and reinvested into WPZ. That is a very strong credit positive that we think the agencies and debt investors will take note of. The estimated growth capital – let me back up here a second, again, that will reduce the external funding needs for WPZ. It will enable deleveraging at both WMB and WPZ and really targeting having WPZ below 4.5 times by 2018 and, again, with a commitment to maintain those investment grade ratings at WPZ. And, again, I mentioned the $5 billion of growth capital, which is $1.9 billion in 2016 and about $3.1 billion in 2017, with 68% and 77% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, related to Transco. So we're delighted to have the ability to grow our Transco franchise anchored with demand payments with strong counterparties and we think that will add a lot of value over time. WPZ intends to fund the growth by a number of means here, as Alan mentioned. We plan to sell the Canadian assets during 2016, plan to sign and announce in the third quarter and close the transaction in the second half of this year with combined proceeds to PZ and MB totaling more than $1 billion and PZ share being more than $800 million. We're establishing a distribution reinvestment program, or DRIP program, that will be available for all common unitholders, and we're hopeful that we get some public participation in that. And Williams does plan to reinvest $1.7 billion into WPZ through 2017. The third quarter distribution that Williams receives will be reinvested in WPZ via a private placement transaction because the DRIP program is not going to be available quickly enough, and then the contributions or the reinvestment thereafter will be through the DRIP program. WPZ would also plan to access the public equity market to the extent it has a need through its ATM program or other means as well as access to public debt market, also as needed. And, again, to the extent that we get public participation in the DRIP program, that would reduce the need for ATM or other equity. I'll pause there and turn it back to Alan.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Great. Thank you, Don. And so just a few things to wrap up here real quick before we go to questions. Certainly, I don't think there's any argument around the industry that we hold the premier natural gas asset base in the nation and we see that continuing to deliver growing fee-based revenues. The fee-based revenues now is about 93% of WPZ's gross margin, and you're going to continue to see that grow. And so we're excited to see that, again, first on the demand side and then pulling the supply basins along with it. With the financial measures that we've announced, we'll be driving significant reinvestment at WPZ, and that's going to stabilize the investment grade ratings and improve the coverage at PZ as well. And so we certainly are on a path to continue delivering steady growing result for our investors. And I want to say once again before we close here just how pleased I am with our organization. I'd tell you the team really does understand our strategy, they understand what's critical to us, and really lots of energy around the organization right now excited about showing what we're made of and showing how we can deliver against this exciting strategy and plan and execute on this multi-billion-dollar project backlog that's going to continue to drive our growth, especially along our big interstate pipelines here for the next couple of years. And we believe that our natural gas focused strategy has positioned Williams as the company for long-term steady growth. And so with that, thank you again for joining us, and we'll move on to questions.
Operator:
We'll go first to Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for all the detail today. I wanted to start with the $250 million that MB will be buying. How should we think about the price at which WMB will be buying that and the private placement of the common unit? And is the parent primarily funding this with the $200 million, give or take, of proceeds, of its portion from the Canadian asset sale?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Christine, good morning. The discount is something we're not prepared to speak to today, but I would say it will be in the range of customary discounts. We think it will be attractive to WPZ. We're unable to talk about the DRIP program today because we would be getting ahead of our registration statement. So we'll have to be patient on that. And our intention would be to have a discount that is consistent with the discount that would be available to the public once the registration statement and the DRIP program are activated. As to the $250 million of cash, or the $200 million of cash in the current quarter, that would be funded from the WPZ distribution or the Canadian asset proceeds.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then the DRIP program, like you guys say, goes through 2017, how confident are you that this won't have to be extended, especially in the event Atlantic Sunrise is delayed from the late 2017 in-service date? Is this generally something you're comfortable with because the CapEx generally drops off in 2018? Just some thoughts there would be helpful.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Christine. First, I'll just say that, again, Atlantic Sunrise is currently moving along as planned, but if there were a delay, that would also significantly reduce the capital spend in those periods as well. So you'd see some reduction in DRIP program requirements or equity requirements just generally. As to 2018, we're not providing any kind of guidance on 2018 today, so again I'll ask that you be somewhat patient on that.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then, I guess if I was to go by what you said and continue to operate under the assumption that Atlantic Sunrise does come in on time, then it does look like you guys may have to rely on the ATM just given the big CapEx next year. And the WPZ cost of equity is still pretty high. A lot of your peers have gotten rid of the GP in some way, shape, or form, whether it's the parent buying in the LP or the LP buying in GP. Can we just get some updated thoughts from you guys on this trend and whether or not at some point you will have to evaluate the same in order to be competitive with these peers?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
You know what I would say today that I think we announced a series of actions today, but in terms of other potential actions, we always are looking at other possibilities, structure change or otherwise, and you've seen us take a number of actions in the past and we'll continue to evaluate the possibilities again as we continue to move forward. So I wouldn't rule anything out, but at the current time I'd focus on the actions we've taken and we really don't have any commentary really on anything else that we're looking at.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great. Thank you for the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Thanks, Christine.
Operator:
We'll go next to Jean Salisbury with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi, guys. Just a couple of quick ones. Can you provide an estimate of the EBITDA from the Canadian assets for sale? I know it's very sensitive to NGL prices, but a range would be helpful.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Jean, I don't think we have disclosed that. I can tell you that in the current environment that there's not a tremendous amount of cash flow there in the current environment with propane being so heavily depressed there in Canada. Of course, that was the purpose of the PDH project, was to take advantage of that, but it's not a meaningful amount of EBITDA here in 2016.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And can you say how much CapEx you've put into the PDH plant so far?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I don't think we've singled that out yet.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I'm sorry, Jean, I don't think we've disclosed that, and we're right in the middle of that sales process or getting that finalized. So I'd prefer not to disclose that. Thank you.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. No, no problem. And then, as a follow-up, a number of news reports have come out that Chesapeake is close to selling their Barnett assets. Have you had any discussions with them about what it would mean for their midstream agreements there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I would just say we're always working with Chesapeake on ways to improve our relationship with them, and certainly we're interested in trying to get the drill bit to work there in the Barnett, which would improve volume today we have those MVCs that protect our cash flows there, but certainly would like to see the drilling activity and development activity increase there. So we are working with Chesapeake, we always are working with Chesapeake on ways to improve that, but we're not in position to be able to disclose anything on that today.
Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. That's all for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital Markets.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks and good morning. As you guys sort of think about the dividend in 2018, should we think about the potential rebasing as something that is gradual off of the $0.80 number or will you sort of have a hard rebasing at that point?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Danilo, I don't think we have much in the way of guidance there, but certainly several factors. WPZ expects to increase its distribution somewhat by 2018. Obviously, we're not quantifying that today. And then, secondly, over time we would expect the reinvestment to diminish or be eliminated and a combination of factors will be considered as Williams determines what its dividend will look like. So, again, really not in a position to provide any guidance on that today, but I think it'll be something that we look at all the factors and make a decision as we got closer to that time period.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks. And just to clarify on your Canadian asset sales, are those proceeds after-tax?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Those are pre-tax proceeds. We do not expect a tax burden in light of the high tax basis on those assets.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Last question for me. You guys realized a lot of cost savings during the quarter. Can you quantify how much you expect to realize here for the balance of the year and maybe also even through 2017?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, sure. Thank you for the question. We do think that the level that we have now is sustainable. These are not kind of one-time, these are more systemic kind of cost reductions. Our head count from the first of the year is down about 12% and our team has done a really great job on the supply chain side of things of lowering our costs there as well. So these are things we've worked hard to not just – not as simple as just head count reduction, but also process improvements across the organization. And we do think that we're reducing costs in a way that's sustainable. And we are looking for some things to simplify the organization looking forward as well. And so we're hopeful to continue to improve on the cost savings beyond what we have today as we get into 2017.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Please go ahead.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
A couple of questions. I guess, the first one is kind of a multi-part question, but when you think about restarting the dividend in 2018, is there a net debt to EBITDA target on a consolidated basis that you have to achieve first, or do you just sort of think that the way you – if you're on the right glide path, that that would allow you to restart that? And then, secondly, is it only going to be dividend increase, or are you thinking about share buybacks? And then, finally, would you be interested in calling some of the WMB debt, or would there be premium issues and so forth? I was wondering if you can sort of talk about that in context together?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Yeah, a lot of questions there. I would say that we would like to, again, hold WPZ at investment grade stable levels. We would like Williams to be not more than two notches lower than that, and also have Williams credit profile strengthening as well such that Williams begins to come back to investment grade levels over a multi-year timeframe here as well. Having said that, I think we would certainly be looking at all of our options, but at this point, I would say that we would look at all the options, whether it's dividend, share buyback or debt reduction. But again, I think we'll have to see exactly what the facts and circumstances look like, what's the best use of capital as we approach 2018. I think right now we've got a pretty clear path and plan through 2017. But 2018, I think we don't want to get ahead of ourselves and really start to lay out too much until we get a little further down the road.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then as a follow-up, and I realize you guys have been very busy and announced a lot today, but when you think about Geismar in terms of the options that you have for it right now, what is the appetite in the marketplace right now for a tolling arrangement? When I think about the amount of M&A that we've seen in the chemical sector, some of them seem to be short ethylene capacity. Do you see yourself signing a potentially longer term tolling arrangement with one of those guys or when you think about the M&A appetite that's out there for chem assets, do you think about possibly selling Geismar as well, too?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would say that we certainly are exploring what the tolling market looks like out there. We've kind of done that almost piecemeal in the past, kind of one customer at a time and we are looking at doing more of a process. Really if you think about, there's really two groups that would be the counterparties of those tolling agreements. One would be the market. So the parties that are selling the ethylene and have that supply, and that's a fairly consolidated group on the river. And then on the other side of that you had a multitude of buyers that really are dependent on Williams as a merchant provider in that market. So that's the downstream derivative buyers. And so we really are trying to determine which party is the better counterparty for us on that between the supply side versus the market side of that. So I would say we've moved from doing that in a kind of – I wouldn't – in a piecemeal manner, one party at a time, to kind of looking at it in a more aggregated process, and so we will be pushing ahead on that for the balance of the year.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then, finally, there was an earlier question about the Barnett and Chesapeake. It's my understanding that the recent activity in the Barnett is more about an oil target. Would that be a benefit to you longer term? I was wondering if you can sort of talk into context as to what the targets are there and why folks would be interested in potentially acquiring the asset?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I really couldn't help you too much. I think the window that's there is primarily a gas window that we're involved with, with Chesapeake and the acreage that we have. But there's just a lot of – if you think about how old a lot of those completions were versus modern technology today, there is a lot of improvements that don't require the kind of capital to drill, but just a lot of improvements that can be done with everything that the industry has learned about completions. And so we think there's some pretty low-cost incremental gas production to come out of the basin. And so we think putting ourselves in a position where we're helping encourage that is good for us long term. And so those are the kind of things that I think we would be looking for, for that basin.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll go next to Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Just on the CapEx guidance here, I just want to confirm, first of all, how much have you spent on Atlantic Sunrise, if anything? And then, do you have full completion of the project in your $3.1 billion through 2017?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let's see, on the capital, I don't think we've disclosed that. So we have spent money, it always takes a lot of money upfront on a project like that, and we've been very successful on the right-of-way acquisition piece of that. And so that's where the permitting and right-of-way acquisitions where majority of those dollars will go, but team's done a terrific job on that front and so we're doing very well on that. In terms of the timing of the capital, certainly the $3 billion in 2017 includes Atlantic Sunrise. I will tell you that, as we've mentioned before, team is very focused on that 2017 in-service target. But I would tell from you a financial plan standpoint – I think this has perhaps brought some confusion, from a financial plan standpoint, we always give ourselves, on all of our projects, we give ourselves some room so that we're not expecting cash flows and we can absorb some delays if they do occur. So I would just say on the planning and the project management side, we are full bore into making that 17-date, and things are going well in that regard. But from a financial planning standpoint, we put a more conservative date in there for expected start-up.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. That makes sense. And then, I think, for Don, you had mentioned in your prepared remarks 4.5 times debt to EBITDA at WPZ in 2018. Can you just confirm does that have a full year of Atlantic Sunrise, is that sort of an exit rate type of metric, and do you think that's the number you need to get to, to stay IG with the agencies?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I'd say – first, I'd say that I said less than 4.5 times. That would be an agency adjusted number, so it wouldn't be right off the books, but it'd be an agency adjusted number. It has a partial year of Atlantic Sunrise, I think as Alan mentioned. We build a contingency into our financial plan for potential delay in all of our projects. And we just wanted to be clear about that. So it's partial year that's included in our 2018 numbers.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. That makes sense. And then just in Northeast G&P, the volumes there, it looks like they're down sequentially. You've spoken, I think about price related shut-ins. I'm just wondering if you're still seeing that, and is it more a northeast Pennsylvania or it is now more widespread across the basin, what you're seeing there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I'll ask Jim Scheel to chime in on that, please.
James E. Scheel - Senior VP-Northeast Gathering & Processing:
Yeah. So right now we have about 700 million a day shut-in. And you're correct, the majority of that is in northeast PA, specifically in and around the Bradford area. As you can recall, our volumes are down somewhat, but you've got to remember this is a shoulder month where we really haven't had much cooling impact until the last month of the quarter.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning, and congratulations.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
So, Don or Alan, can you comment on the updated cash tax outlook at WMB over time with this updated plan? Also, any prospects that you envision as far as cash flows for the size of excess coverage at WPZ through 2017? And any thoughts about the combined range of potential public DRIP and ATM proceeds that you might look for through the end of 2017?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Craig, cash tax rate continues to be at or near zero for extended period of time in light of the heavy capital investment and significant NOL that we have. In terms of WPZ's cash flow and coverage, we've not put out a number on that. I think you can calculate that based off what we have put out. And, again, we've not defined the size of the public DRIP or ATM program. But again, I think given the data we have put out, I think you can probably come up with some pretty good estimates yourself.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Are we to anticipate some cash tax drag before the end of the decade?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I think that's unlikely.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
We'll go next to Faisel Khan with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey. Good morning. It's Faisel from Citi. Just want to go back to some of the equity funding statements you made for WPZ. I understand that looks like it funds the equity portion of the capital program. I take it, Don, that the rest will be sort of funded with debt on the – incremental debt on the balance sheet?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Well, Faisel, I'd say, we have a pretty limited amount of debt in this plan. As you know, Transco issued $1 billion of debt back in January of 2016 when the market was not very attractive. But the amount of debt being issued in this plan is pretty modest. There are some debt retirements that are coming up. So we'll obviously be issuing debt to fund debt retirements. But beyond that, it's pretty limited given that we're in the process of delevering.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And then, in terms of the distribution coverage, I know you're around one times. What do you think the right target for distribution coverage is? I mean, you still have some cyclical cash flows in the portfolio of assets and you've got some concentrated counterparty risk. I'm just wondering, what's the right coverage ratio at PZ and that is comfortable for you and the agencies?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
That's a great question. Again, I think it'll be a function of the amount of commodity price or other risk that we have in the portfolio. And I would say that it's somewhere going to be between 1 and 1.2 times. But these are general range of coverage that I would expect over time, again, depending on facts and circumstances, but obviously it could be a bit different from that.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And did the agencies get a chance to preview this plan, and does this take at least one or two of them off the negative watch do you think?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Well, we did preview it with three agencies and it will be up to them to determine their point of view.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And then just on the – you guys used to publish your – sort of your sensitivity commodity prices. I just want to make sure that the historical sort of guidance you used to give us on the sensitivity is still sort of intact?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I would say that – I don't know anything offhand that throws it off, but our volumes have changed somewhat since that date. So I wouldn't want to say that it's up-to-date, but I think directionally it's in the right direction. I think we'll look to provide some updates in the future date as to what those look like. But again, we've had some movement in volumes, so I wouldn't want to say that that's as precise as it used to be, but nonetheless I think it's still something that is useful.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think probably the main delta looking forward, of course, would be the Canadian asset sales because those are very commodity sensitive and so that would probably be the big change in your model looking forward.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Understood. Now, Alan, last question from me. On the corporate governance plans, as you go into sort of, I guess, a November proxy, what's the plan in terms of number of board seats and the sort of independent Chairman role? I mean, what's the plan from a corporate governance and sort of corporate structure perspective?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, sure. I would tell you we are out recruiting and going through the interview process. We've got Spencer Stuart helping us with that effort. And it's gone very well, very impressed with the kind of candidates that we've seen and that I'm very excited about, frankly. And so we are looking to add a few really great candidates in that regard, and I would say stay tuned on that. It's moving ahead pretty quickly. But we are anxious to hear if there's any other candidates that surface as part of the – from outside of the board, the Spencer Stuart effort. We're always anxious to hear that feedback as well. So again, things are going well. We're excited about adding the board today is very stable, very engaged, but as always we're looking to add to the quality of our board.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Any independent Chairman spot?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Today Kathleen Cooper is our Chairman, and would expect that to remain the case.
Faisel H. Khan - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll go next to Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
A lot's been hit here, so apologize if these are sort of second-tier type questions, but just curious on a couple of things, Alan. First, I guess, the time profile of your appeal process on Energy Transfer, if there's anything you can tell us as a guidepost for that, when we might put it sort of formally behind us?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
We're hoping to see that expedited, but would just say that it moves through the Delaware courts at a pace that – I would expect that it's going to drag out too terribly long, but I don't really have any specific dates for you on that. I would just remind people that the focus there is for the damages. And we certainly are – our outside counsel is certainly very focused on that. I would tell you the management team has got their head down to really execute on the plan before us, and so fully expect our outside legal team to be successful in going after those damages. But I would tell you the management team's focus is just head-on on the business before us.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Understood. Thanks for that. And then, I guess, just a final question for me. With regard to the MVC accruals that you make, are you asking the counterparties to post collateral for those? How does that process, I guess, work? And then, as it relates, how does – in your conversations, Don, I guess, previewing with the rating agencies, how did they think about those cash flows as it pertains to your leverage and the defense of IG down at WPZ? Thanks.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Chris, we do not get any credit support on those. They're contractually due, so the counterparties require to pay those. Obviously, in the event of a credit event, that's a different situation. But absent credit event, they're contractually due, and they have been paid timely every year. And we would expect those would continue to be paid to us in full and timely. So it's really not a worry, except in the event of a credit event. And in terms of the agencies, I think the agencies view it the same way so that they would view it as certain cash flows, except with an assumed credit event. So that would be some stress-testing around that.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks for the color.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. I'm just wondering if you could provide some more details on your underlying assumptions for 2017 in your financial planning, especially when you think, I guess, targeting that debt leverage of 4.5 times and below? Just wondering what are you expecting for 2017 commodity prices, as well as is there any anticipated deterioration in the Chesapeake cash flows?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Sharon, we're largely using strip prices, so I'd say something that's very much in line with where the current market is. And in terms of CHK cash flows, we're not expecting a significant amount of drilling activity from Chesapeake in light of the fact that they have a number of priorities for the use of their capital including some debt reduction. So again, I think we have what appears to be a fairly realistic plan at this point, and we'll see how things play out.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. But no change in terms of the gathering rate for the MVCs at this point?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
No.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And then to achieve, I guess, the 4.5 times or below, are you assuming ATM equity or additional asset sales in 2017?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
We are assuming ATM equity, and the amount will be dependent upon the amount of public participation in the DRIP. But between public DRIP or public ATM equity, we are expecting to tap that. We are not planning any additional asset sales at this point, certainly to the extent that there were any, that certainly could reduce the needs in that area.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And just a question about 2017 growth CapEx, you provided guidance of $3.1 billion. The bulk of it is Transco spending, but just wondering if you can give some color on the other areas of investment for the remaining balance.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I'd say it's Gathering & Processing assets throughout our system. I would say with the Northeast as a factor there just to meet growing production needs, particularly as this new pipeline capacity comes online, there's some gathering expansions that have to occur as well to fill those pipelines. So I think that's probably the biggest portion of that.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
And we also have in that – other than interstate, we also have some investments going on out in the Permian as well. So in the joint ventures out there as well as in some of our operated facilities in the Permian, there's quite a bit of committed expansion and capital going on in that area as well.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Great. And just I guess in terms of expected timing, when you would provide more details on 2017 guidance?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Well, we haven't determined that yet, Sharon, in terms of when we would provide more detail. Certainly, you can see on slide five of the package that we produced today, you can see the projects and the amount of capital we expect to be placed in service in 2017. So that can give you some idea of the amount of growth that we expect for 2017. But we haven't determined exactly when we would lay out guidance for the 2017 period.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Darren Horowitz with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Good morning. A couple of quick ones. The first, Don, what's the average return threshold across the projects in the backlog for next year? And I'm just curious, when you look at the current cost of equity, where you think the cost of equity is going to be as well as the current cost of debt, any opportunities to high grade or defer that capital commitment in order to alleviate some of the financing burden next year?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Darren, great question. Something we look at all the time. I'd say our pipes projects tend to be in the low-teens, un-levered returns. And we think the cost of capital for those is pretty low too from the standpoint if you were to really isolate that business and say what is the perfect cost of capital for that business. So I think you'd be looking at pretty low debt costs there and a pretty attractive equity cost as well I'd say. And I think that's exactly the kind of business that investors are pretty enthusiastic about and probably lowers our cost of capital overall. So we think all of those Transco projects are just really right down the sweet spot. So while we could lay off some capital there, it's not desirable, I think, from our perspective. The rest of the returns on some of those investments tend to be fairly high because they're incremental returns on existing asset bases. So, again, we'll continue to look at those and see if there's capital that is not earning a sufficient return or otherwise can be deferred or laid off. But at this point, this is the plan, but we'll continue to focus on that in an effort to maximize value creation opportunities for both PZ and Williams.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I would just add to that. As you think about the returns on projects like Atlantic Sunrise, great project, great returns, but in addition to the returns we get on a particular project, something like Atlantic Sunrise pulls all the way through the system. So you heard Jim talk about the 700 million a day that we have shut-in up there as – and that capital is already there, the gathering system is already there. So to the degree we unlock those constraints and systems like that, we get a very high increment in cash flows because we would see the gathering volumes pick up there as well. So, really, those projects are really important to us in terms of incremental cash flow.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
So, Alan, if you think about it in that context just meaning that those projects are sticky because they've got, if you will, more intrinsic returns, just based on how vertically integrated they are, if you balance that with your funding plan, how do you guys think about – and I know this is tough to answer, but how do you think about balancing the equity issuances that are needed through the ATM beyond WMB's investment in WPZ, and the headwind that leaning on that ATM could have on PZ's equity cost of capital, maybe challenging some of those returns?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. No, we certainly look at it that way. And I think the way you are describing you should look at it, with just kind of on the incremental cost of capital is the right way to think about that, and that is the way we think about it. So I completely agree with that assessment. I would just tell you I think these projects are pretty powerful in terms of what they do for us going on the increment. And we have trimmed a lot of capital out of the plan. But I think as WPZ investors see the amount of coverage that we have and see the kind of growth that is out before WPZ with all those big capital investment, I think we'll see some very constructive positioning for the PZ units. And so I think that will be a positive. But, again, I think the kind of returns that we're talking about, are powerful and we'll overcome that over time.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Okay. And then last question for me. Don, Alan, in your eyes, what's more net present value accretive? Is it a meaningful leverage reduction in the near term where you can return to a larger dividend reset with a de-risked cash flow profile, or is it a more moderate dividend restatement and greater operational cash flow being reinvested in the business for theoretically greater returns like you just talked about over the long term?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Darren, I think we're comfortable with the plan that we laid out here today based on the facts and circumstances we have in front of us, and obviously we'll continue to look at the changing landscape, including how we're valued and the cost of capital and make decisions from that new baseline. But we're certainly very focused on the cost of capital, very interested in reducing spending where we don't see a good spread between the return on capital and cost of capital as well, but all consistent with supporting our franchises. So we'll continue to balance those points and try to find the path that we believe will create the greatest long-term value.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Darren.
Operator:
And, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude the Q&A portion of the call today. I'd like to return the program to Alan Armstrong for closing comments.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Well, great. Well, thank you all very much. Appreciate all the interest. We're really excited about the platform that we're sitting on here for growth and very excited about really moving this business to a much more predictable set of cash flows and continuing to execute on these projects that are just coming in one after another as we expand out the business, and then ultimately the pull-through that we'll get on our supply side. So we couldn't be more excited about strategy, very thankful for a very dedicated organization that's fired up about executing on the plan. And we appreciate your confidence and interest in Williams in the future. Thank you.
Operator:
And this will conclude today's program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Executives:
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director Walter J. Bennett - SVP-West & Management Committee, Northwest Pipeline LLC John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC Robert S. Purgason - Director
Analysts:
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States)
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams/Williams Partners First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Doug. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions. And also, we have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. We do appreciate what a busy morning it is and so let's move right on to slide two here. First of all, our first quarter 2016 results certainly underscore the strong fundamentals of our fee-based business model, and we're excited as Williams to play a critical role in getting abundant low-cost North American natural gas into the growing markets and delivering volume-driven growth to our stock and unit holders. In fact, we're pleased to say that on an adjusted EBITDA at Williams for the first quarter was up 15% over last year and up 16% at WPZ. And this was despite a number of smaller non-cash expense items that totaled approximately $17 million that we did not adjust out of this calculation. The WPZ DCF performance was up 14% to $739 million in the first quarter, giving us a coverage ratio of 1.02x at PZ, excluding the benefits of the IDR waiver. This quarter is especially noteworthy as it marks the 10th consecutive quarter that we've delivered year-over-year increases in what we now refer to as adjusted EBITDA, or its predecessor description, segment profit plus DD&A. Throughout the business we've continued to aggressively manage our costs and align our work force with the realities of low commodity prices and reduced producer activity in the supply basins. And we made additional tough decisions at the end of the first quarter, which included reducing our overall work force by 10%. But even with market headwinds, our focus on fee-based revenue has allowed us to product strong cash flow despite a 16-year low in NGL prices. And as we look forward, it is exciting to see all of the natural gas demand-based projects ramping up as they will be a major part of our growth going forward. We expect continued growth from our portfolio of large-scale demand-driven projects and our fully contracted natural gas transmission business coming on in the balance of 2016, 2017 and 2018. And in this period towards then, we'll begin to pool on the supply basins that we are already so well-positioned in today. Now, we've talked a lot at Williams about the unique position between prolific supply basins and the tremendous demand pool markets that we serve, especially along the Transco system, but we're not the only ones talking about it. In fact, SNL Financial published a story just this week and encapsulates the great position we're in. The headline is the Southeast's growing appetite for natural gas will change market structure. And that probably sounds familiar if you've been following Williams for a while. And as this article points out, more than 50% of the supply in the Southeast currently comes from the Gulf, but that the Southeast will experience significant demand increases here in the near future and all the way through 2030 when a whopping 60% of the power generation will be fueled by natural gas. And if you look at the geography of this demand pool, it's hard to miss the fact that our Transco system runs through the heart of this area. And to bring this tremendous market demand growth story back to the nearer term, we said at our Analyst Day presentation last year that we've already captured more than a third of the 22 Bcf per day of demand increases along the Transco corridor, forecasted between 2015 and 2025 by Wood Mac. And to continue meeting this demand, we've announced plans last year to increase the capacity on our Eastern interstate from 10.8 Bcf per day to more than 17 Bcf per day by the end of 2017, and that by 2017, we expect to double the capacity of the Transco system from its 2010 level. So as you'll see when we discuss our projects in this presentation, Williams is strategically positioned like no other company in the natural gas sector to meet this tremendous demand pool and experience significant fee-based growth. As we move on to discuss the quarterly performance in our operating areas, I want to remind everyone that this is the first quarter in which we've consolidated our legacy Access operations in the Marcellus and Utica into our overall reporting for the Northeast gathering and processing, and we've moved the remaining legacy Access areas into what we now call the Central Operating Area. With that, let me highlight some of the drivers of our solid performance in each of the operating areas this quarter. First of all, once again, the Atlantic-Gulf is delivering strong results as we capture more and more demand fees for providing natural gas transmission capacity on the Atlantic-Gulf systems. Adjusted EBITDA was up $64 million to $399 million over the first quarter of 2015. And this came from – really from two primary areas. First of all, we saw $28 million higher fee-based revenues from higher transportation revenues on Transco. And these were associated with various expansion projects that came on during 2015. And then, in another $28 million higher proportional EBITDA from our Discovery system and our Discovery system continues to benefit from the great successes that producers like Anadarko and Exxon have had in the Keathley Canyon area. And of course, that feeds into our large Keathley Canyon Connector system that we brought online in 2015 as well. We'll touch on this a bit later, but you'll see that the hits keep coming for the Atlantic-Gulf in terms of successful permitting activity and bringing growth projects online. Additionally, the bulk of our growth for the balance of 2016 will come from the Atlantic-Gulf, with three new projects coming online over the next three months. Our Central Operating Area, which I mentioned now includes legacy Access operations outside of the Northeast, reported adjusted EBITDA of $226 million for the first quarter of 2016. And this was compared with a $218 million for the first quarter of 2015 as we repositioned those assets. Revenues were virtually flat year-over-year, while lower expenses drove the improvements. The $226 million represents 100% fee-based businesses with essential infrastructure in large scale natural gas basins in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma. In the NGL & Petchem Services area, we reported an adjusted EBITDA of $57 million for the first quarter compared with $7 million for the first quarter of 2015. Although olefin margins started off very low in January and February, they really rebounded in the month of March, and as crude oil prices improved and many ethylene crackers began going offline for maintenance in late March and in April. So we continue to enjoy nice margins here in the second quarter. The increase in the first quarter of 2015 adjusted EBITDA was due primarily to $60 million higher olefins margins at Geismar, with a full quarter of production compared to very intermittent production that we experienced in the first quarter of 2015. I would also note that the adjusted EBITDA in this segment for PZ included $16 million unfavorable foreign exchange activity in the period as well. In the Northeast G&P, we reported an adjusted EBITDA of $219 million for the first quarter of 2016 and this compared with an adjusted EBITDA of $196 million in 2015. And these results improved primarily due to a $16 million increase in fee-based revenues driven by gathering volumes, primarily in the Utica, and $13 million higher proportional EBITDA from our equity method investments. And this was mostly due to our increased ownership in the Utica East Ohio system. Price-related shut-ins averaged 900 MMcf a day for the quarter. This is always something people have a strong interest in, so we estimate we had about 900 MMcf a day. That was not 900 MMcf a day every day, but on average. We saw some worse days and some better days in that as producers turned production on and off responding to both load and prices. These shut-ins were seen across the Bradford County areas, the Susquehanna area and a significant revenue impact felt in the OVM area. But I would like to speak to the fact that this really does represent a great growth opportunity for us without any additional capital spending, so the gas is there, the infrastructure is there. And as debottlenecking continues in this area, we'll see that cash flow come back on. One thing to note is just recently we completed our New York loop that feeds into the Millennium Pipeline. So this was our segment previously referred to as the Laser Pipeline that we acquired and we did complete a loop. And, this, along with the compressor addition at our Dunbar Station, should add about 140 MMcf a day of incremental capacity this year that will provide for takeaway. There's a number of other small improvements like that going on as people debottleneck their takeaway opportunities out of this area. In the West, our performance this quarter was stable by any measure as we've been focusing on cost control to offset the significant decline in unit NGL margins that fell from $0.34 per gallon in the first quarter of 2015 to $0.22 per gallon in the first quarter of 2016. Margins did improve dramatically at the very end of the quarter and we continue to enjoy much better margins here in the second quarter. To be clear, our West group continues to post remarkably steady EBITDA despite a challenging environment for our producing customers in the Rockies and 16-year low NGL prices in the West. Overall, we think our commodity exposure represents significant upside as prices rebound. And the Rockies are very well positioned to respond to growing natural gas and ethane demand as well. So let me move over to slide three now and talk about our growth projects. And certainly I'll start this off by noting there's been quite a bit of media coverage around the State of New York's denial of our 401 Water Quality Permit with the Constitution Pipeline. We obviously don't agree with the decision and believe that there was significant amount of politics involved that went into that decision. Some of the resulting media coverage certainly echoes that sentiment. We work hard to do things right by the environment and we work hard to cooperate with regulators and land owners. And so we're always disappointed when those efforts where we really do try to do the right thing seem to be ignored. The Constitution partners are assessing the path forward and we're committed to building this critical piece of infrastructure. It's certainly important to economic development and jobs in Upstate New York, and a reliable supply of natural gas is critical if New York is going to continue its transition from coal-fired power generation to the natural gas use. It's also critical if the entire New England region is to benefit from U.S. natural gas as it also transitions away from retired nuclear plants and coal-fired generation. However, while the recent headline may have been about Constitution and the state permitting process in New York, we've been making significant progress on a number of projects during the period. First of all, the Transco Garden State project, we did get FERC approval for this 180 MMcf a day expansion that'll serve a local distribution group in New Jersey. Also, the New York Bay Project, FERC issued an environmental assessment for this 115 MMcf a day expansion. And that is expected to come on in the fourth quarter of 2017 as its in-service date. Moving to the South then for a minute, the Transco Dalton project, which is a major expansion into some natural gas-fired power generation in Northern Georgia, the FERC issued an environmental assessment for 448 MMcf a day expansion, and that is also a 2017 in-service date. On Northwest Pipeline, our Kalama Lateral, we did receive a FERC approval for a 320 MMcf a day project to serve a proposed methanol production facility in that area. And moving back to the South on Transco, the Hillabee Expansion, which is an expansion on our system that will serve the Sabal Trail pipeline to the south. That project was also approved and construction will begin on that soon. In the Gulf East, we reached agreement with Shell and Nexen to provide deepwater gas gathering services to the Appomattox development. Really excited about that project and the team's done a great job of keeping that project very low risk to us and taking advantage of our rather expansive infrastructure in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. So great work by the team there and a great piece of business we'll pick up there that is very low risk, given the existing investments we already have there. On the Canadian offgas processing, the Horizon offgas project was fully placed in service in March of 2016. And that project has continued to run very well and so congrats to the team on there for bringing that up online. I would note that despite the fires in the Fort McMurray area, and I'll just say we are doing everything we can as Williams to help out the community and our employees in that area from that tragedy, but I would say that the CNRL-Horizon plant remains online in that area. Williams has a strong proven track record of permitting approvals and we continue to make significant progress across our entire portfolio of projects. One of the reasons we've been successful is that we've been able to work alongside governmental agencies and community partners to support environmental mitigation and cultural preservation where we have operations and are building projects. And in fact, New York is no exception, where just last week Williams was awarded the Lucy G. Moses Preservation Award for our work to restore historic hangars at the Floyd Bennett Field on Long Island, which now houses metering and regulating facilities that are part of our Rockaway Lateral project. In fact, this award is the highest honor given for historic preservation in New York and provided a win-win solution for both Williams and the National Park Service, which has been trying for years to fund this restoration. So all-in-all, I think the list we've just reviewed demonstrates our continued strong execution on putting growth projects into service and let me touch on a few that are coming soon beyond that. First of all, on Atlantic Sunrise, we're excited that Atlantic Sunrise is targeted to receive its draft EIS from the FERC this month. It's a project that's going to help unlock tremendous value in the Marcellus like never before to serve growing demand markets. And it's on track for receiving its state and federal permit and clearances. And in fact, really important note here, it has already received its 401 Water Quality Permit in Pennsylvania. So this project is – really, the pipeline part of this project is all in Pennsylvania and we have received the Water Quality Permit, same permit that has us held up on Constitution we've already received in Pennsylvania. So appreciate the great work by both our permitting teams on that as well as the cooperation we get with the State of Pennsylvania. In a project we call Rock Springs, which is a new power plant that we're serving, that construction is going to be complete late this month and commissioning will happen very soon after that. This will be in service – placed into service because of the customers' needs being on August 1 of 2016. So our construction on this project is actually significantly ahead of schedule of the planned ISD. So congrats to our team on that project and that is another significant power plant load that we've picked up there in the Maryland area. Kodiak tieback, this is the fourth third-party tieback to the Devil's Tower platform and it did achieve its first oil on schedule in the first quarter of 2016. However, due to some higher pressures in the reservoir, they've currently – the producer has shut that in to accommodate putting in some more robust production facilities to handle this impressive reservoir, and we expect that to restart – or that restart to expect here in late May. On the Gunflint tieback, a really large important project for us, and we expect first Gulfstar One – this first Gulfstar One tieback to commission in June. The work is actually going on as we speak there during the month of May and so we'll be turning that back over to the producers here in June for commissioning. This is going to contribute significant cash flow growth as this big tieback for Gulfstar comes online. So with that, let's move on to slide four. Our pathway to growth in our fee-based cash flows is very clear as it is dependent upon a large number of already contracted large-scale projects serving the growing market for natural gas. For 2016, the major projects are already largely constructed, with final commissioning activities occurring here in the second quarter, as I just mentioned. And so, just looking at the changes here from 2015 to 2016, first of all, we're going to get the benefit of the full year contribution for projects that came on during 2015. You see that list on this slide. We also then have the Rock Springs project that I just mentioned, Gunflint, Kodiak and the CNRL-Horizon project, which is already online, contributing here into 2016 as well. In comparing 2016 to 2017, further growth's going to come from all these projects being on for a full year, plus the Dalton Project, which is the very large expansion in the Northern Georgia; the Hillabee Project that serves Sabal Trail; the Gulf Trace Project, which is under construction right now; and as well as various G&P expansions, particularly in the Northeast. As we look into 2018 versus 2017, you would see the full year contribution of those projects we just mentioned as well as partial contribution from the projects listed here. And probably in 2018, we would expect as the pool comes from some of these large projects that would come on in 2017 like Atlantic Sunrise, we would then expect large pool to start to occur in our supply basin. So really excited to see that area that we've worked so hard to position ourselves really come alive into 2018, as the natural gas demand starts to affect those areas. Beyond 2018, we certainly would have a long number of projects that we're continuing to develop. And you can see some of these here that are already fully contracted; the Gulf Connector, a project to increase – sorry, the Gulf Connector, which is an LNG project, and then another project to increase reliable service in the New York City area that we're really excited about and we'll have more news on that in the not-too-distant future, and then our Hillabee phase two. Moving on to slide five, going to sum things up today. Our first quarter results really demonstrate the resilience of our strategic focus on natural gas. Approximately 93% of the WPZ's gross margin year to date is coming from fee-based revenues and we expect that number to continue to increase. Significant new assets are supporting strong cash flow growth. And while investments in our growth continue across all these areas that we've mentioned today, we certainly are continuing to see growth in the Atlantic-Gulf segment via the Transco expansion and sequential growth in the Marcellus and Utica volumes, which are constrained by market access, but again, we're ready to drive huge growth there because we've already invested in all the major infrastructure in that area. So you should expect to see less and less capital investment in that area, but poised for growth as the demand projects begin to unlock the power of that basin. So once again I'd like to make a specific point about the connections between Transco and the Northeast. Everyone familiar with natural gas knows that Transco has always delivered gas from the South to the North, but that to really unlock the vast supplies in the Northeast, its flow will have to be reversed in many areas. And this is a point made in the SNL article that I mentioned earlier. Reversing this flow is exactly what we did in 2015 with the Leidy Southeast expansion and particularly at our Transco Station 180. It's exactly what we're doing today and it's exactly what our growth projects will continue to exploit over the next few years. And as these projects unlock the tremendous value of America's natural gas resources, they're going to continue to drive volume-driven growth for Williams and our investors. So let me wrap up here by saying that Williams is the best-positioned natural gas focused company in terms of our strategic balance. Our strategic position between the demand pool business and our significantly advantaged presence in key supply basins will drive continued growth and deliver solid returns despite swings in markets and commodity prices. We've seen the success of our strategy reflected quarter after quarter. And with the significant growth projects we have coming down the pike, we expect to stay on this very positive trajectory as this clean and abundant resource continues to grow our market share both here at home and abroad. So as we move to questions now, I just like to ask you to keep your questions focused on our first quarter 2016 results. We know there's a lot of interest in other topics, but that's what we're prepared to talk about today, so we'd appreciate if you'd keep your questions focused on that. And so, operator, if we could move on to questions, please?
Operator:
Thank you. And we'll go first to Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Please go ahead.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Just keeping my questions focused on Williams as it stands, your leverage reduction plans you've talked about in the past, asset sales was something that's mentioned. I was wondering if you can talk about what other options are on the table. Some of your peers executed a dividend cut. Has the board considered a temporary cut in WMB's dividend policy to accelerate deleveraging? I was just sort of wondering what paths you're considering in terms of moving forward with that.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Shneur, this is Don Chappel. Good morning. Great question. I think our comments are consistent with our comments from last quarter. Again, we're very much focused on asset monetizations to fill the gap. The boards will continue to look at dividend policy. We certainly understand all the levers. But at this point in terms of the financing needs, it's really primarily related to asset monetizations. And as well, I'll just comment that we remain committed to seek to maintain our investment grade ratings.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
And does the recent improvement in Chesapeake's credit outlook, or I guess the way the bonds have traded, does that ease some of the pressure on the leverage reduction?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
We don't see it that way. Again, I think we're focused on getting our leverage metrics or keeping our leverage metrics at investment grade levels.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And then a follow-up, ethane has been a big question as of late. I was wondering if you can comment on how your Northeastern assets will benefit from, I guess, what's been emerging but nascent recovery in ethane? And I guess if you can also comment on the other side of your business about Geismar margins, could that potentially be a drag if it recovers, or would you expect ethylene to go up faster as well too?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great questions, Shneur. Let me hit the Northeast part of that question first. Our exposure in the Northeast is really as a service provider there for the most part and we are recovering ethane in there as a service to our customers there. So we enjoy throughput through both our processing and our ethane transportation systems up there and those came online I think in the end of the second quarter last year. So we continue to see improvement from that, but we really don't see too much in the way of margin exposure there, if you will. So most of our revenues there come from just the transport. The area that we're obviously more exposed to is in the Rockies and where we do have rights to the ethane there. And I'll couple that now with the question on Geismar, which is, what if ethane goes up? That's the really nice thing about our portfolio is that we're rarely exposed from natural gas through to ethylene because we're actually long ethane in our portfolio. So if ethane prices go up, we're actually going to see more margin because our length in ethane is bigger if we're in full production and, of course, we would be if ethane prices went up. Our length in ethane is bigger than our short on the Geismar side, so it'd actually be a net positive to us if we were to see that occur.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Is it fair to conclude that if ethylene went up faster, then it would be a double benefit?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
That's right. So really, the spread that you should think about us really is natural gas to ethylene when you think about our full exposure.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And then finally on Constitution, start date's been pushed out. It certainly sounds pretty political and so forth. What's your confidence in the new start date that was put forward? Do you really think that there's some options on the table that you can reroute or do something to address some of the concerns and get this project back on track?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I'm very proud of our team. I think we did everything right there. I think we took great measures to address all the issues that were raised with us and I think we have extremely strong evidence in that regard. And so I am hopeful that science and the facts will win out in that process. And that's certainly what we're counting on. And so I think this is a little bit unprecedented from our perspective where we felt like we've dealt with all of the issues in a very meaningful manner and took very extreme measures to meet all the conditions that were requested of us. There are times when you get things requested of you and you just can't live with them because they might be too expensive or something, but that isn't the case here and we felt like we met all the conditions that were raised to us. So I think as the facts unfold on this, I think they're going to weigh in our favor. And so I think that's how we feel about it. Now, it's early in the process and we're still weighing those odds certainly. But I would just tell you as a partnership and as the operator, I've really been very closely involved in watching what we've done and our team has worked extremely hard to do the right thing. We've re-routed and re-routed and we've made changes after changes after changes to meet the conditions. And as far as we were concerned, we had asked and asked and asked and been told over and over that we had met all the things that had been requested of us. So that sat with the Governor for right at a year after we had been told that we had met the conditions. And so, we'll see. I certainly wouldn't tell you that we know for certain what that looks like, but we do think the facts are very much in our camp on this.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
So there's a way to formally appeal and it not get so political? Or does it involve you having to make another change and then go through the same process again?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the facts as we've laid them out, certainly if whatever the issues were raised to us such that we could address it, we'd be happy to. But I think at this point, it's really a matter of dealing with the facts that are in the permit application and taking that forward through the legal process. So that's the way we see it as we sit here today.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Shneur.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Brandon Blossman with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company. Please go ahead.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, gentlemen.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Don, realizing that there's still a lot of moving pieces here, but with Constitution pushed out, presumably you have a decent line of sight on what 2016 growth capital looks like. Is the financing of 2016 and maybe even 2017 fully contingent on the outcome of the asset sales? And so is that a sequencing event, or is there any incremental color you can provide on debt versus equity needs incremental to those asset sales?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Right now, again, we're focused on asset monetization as the financing source above cash flows. And really, no plan at this time to issue equity in light of the still relatively weak equity prices and no plan to really issue debt other than revolver borrowings.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
And any color on timing around those monetizations?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
We're proceeding to explore the opportunities and I would expect we'd have something to talk about this summer.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay, fair enough. Thank you. And then, Alan, on the head count trim, the 10% reduction, is there color available on the strategic impetus there? Clearly commodity prices are bad. But on the other side of the equation, demand actually is quite good. Your growth projects are still out there and arguably to be added to over the midterm. How does that workforce reduction play into the need to have folks on the ground in terms of incremental projects and that sort of...
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, thank you. That's an excellent question. And I would tell you that really the changes that came about – and I agree with your point that, despite commodity prices, that's not really necessarily that driver. But what we did see was we saw a dramatic slowdown in the growth in the Northeast. And so all of the efforts that we had around expanding our systems in the Northeast and to a lesser degree some in the Central area have slowed down because the number of rigs that have pulled back. And if you know, we dramatically reduced our capital budget. And so, as we reduce that capital budget, it takes a whole lot less administrative effort to support all of those growth projects. And so that's really the areas that we trimmed, the growth in the supply basins. And frankly, we have been growing the company at a pretty big clip just with all of the activity going on, and $4 billion to $5 billion in growth capital a year. We have been growing the company very quickly. So it was a good opportunity for us to sit back and reset our staffing appropriately to both the slower capital investment rate and less producer activity in those supply basins. And so that's what we've accomplished. But that's a great question. Thank you.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
And thanks for that color. And then just somewhat related, more micro question, Atlantic Sunrise, the wording in the data book changed a little bit quarter-over-quarter, but it sounds like the permitting process is going at least as planned, if not slightly better. Anything to read into that?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I don't think there's anything really to read into that. I think that we are excited about the way the permitting process is going and we just want to make sure that we remain conservative enough in that effort. And we certainly are encouraged by some things that we've very recently been able to work out in some of the permitting activities. And so we're encouraged by that, but want to make sure that we're being realistic about how the permitting activities go. But as we sit here today, I mean, at this very moment, feel very good about the way the permitting activities are proceeding right now.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
That's all for me.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. I just wanted to touch upon the asset sales again. Can you guys – have you guys determined if Gulfstream would have to be sold if the deal were to close due to FTC issues?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Christine, there's no settlement at this time with the FTC, so I really can't comment on that. So – but we are exploring multiple asset sales to determine the path forward. So we have a couple of options or a few options.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then just – you guys touched upon this, but it's been a while since I've focused on the West operations. So can you remind me how the G&P contracts are structured there? Is it essentially all POP or is there some keep-whole still there?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Let me have Walt Bennett answer that for you. Walt?
Walter J. Bennett - SVP-West & Management Committee, Northwest Pipeline LLC:
Sure. There's a combination of contracts and the majority are definitely fee-based, but there are some keep-whole contracts and percent-of-liquids as well. And so I think the way to think about it would be about – there is some commodity exposure at about 30% of the contracts.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then the ethane rejection that's going on in that region, is it about 25,000 barrels per day? Am I in the ball park?
Walter J. Bennett - SVP-West & Management Committee, Northwest Pipeline LLC:
Well, we are now actually – we are recovering small amounts of ethane, just doing a partial recovery. And the way to think about the – if we were in full recovery would be to essentially just double the non-ethane production.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So if you look at the operating data for the quarter, I mean we had somewhere around 245 million gallons of non-ethane production. And that's effectively about the same amount of ethane if we were in full ethane recovery, that's about the amount. So that can give you a pretty good picture on what our ethane rejection is.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, and then just another question on kind of Geismar. When I kind of think about the Petchem backdrop with the new crackers coming on and the feedstock cost of ethane rising, isn't it possible that ethylene prices won't rise and maybe not keep its historical correlation to crude? I mean have you guys thought about whether or not maybe this asset belongs better inside a more integrated Petchem with downstream capabilities?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Certainly, we think that the offsetting exposure we have on the ethane is valuable to the assets, but we have made some progress back in this quarter. We made some progress on going into some fee-based business, so some ethane plus agreements for that and we continue to work on that. So I was excited to see our team pull out across the line strategically. That's where we've been trying to get that asset to and the team made some good progress on that in this quarter.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. But nothing else to kind of give us? It's still early stages.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. Yeah. I think – again, I think we're working hard to that. It seems reasonable from our perspective that if somebody's willing to go build one, a cracker, that we can sell them the capacity at a much lower cost. And so that's the basis of that marketing effort and we are having some success on that front.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Can you elaborate on the size or relative size thus far of the ethane plus contracting for Geismar 1 and maybe the timeframe you envision for this becoming more material to derisk that asset?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
John Dearborn, you want to take that question, please?
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
Sure. Thanks, Craig. At this point, we have a part of one of our contracts with a – one of our larger contracts with a customer that is now fee-based. And I would expect that you should see us moving in the market further toward the third quarter of this year. We might have some more to be able to tell you about perhaps some further progress on our initiative to sell more fee-based ethylene at Geismar.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. That'd be wonderful to hear progress on.
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
Yes.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
And some updates on the latest in Northeast shut-ins and curtailed gas and expectations that maybe the FERC may finally step up and exercise some authority to get Constitution over the finish line?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Craig, I would just say that I suspect there will be a lot of people involved in trying to help resolve that. I think certainly, the Federal Government understands how critical that is. And I would even tell you the State of New York, the New York ISO and the power generators in New York and the businesses there understand how incredibly important that project is. So I think we'll have a lot of people weighing in on our side of that argument for obvious reasons. And so I think that'll happen. But I would say despite that, there's a number of projects that are continuing to expand and bring incremental volumes out of the area. And as you heard us mention, our New York loop on the old Laser Pipeline, which is now complete, as well as some compressor addition that we're doing to increase the capacity on that, that'll add about 140 MMcf a day. And there's a couple of power plants in the region that will also work to add incremental load in the area. And so we think that kind of debottlenecking will continue to go on. And meanwhile, we're ready to really express strongly the facts on the Constitution piece, and hopefully, that'll win the day.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. And last question, I understood that WPZ's a bit depressed and you've got asset sales that will fill any needs in 2016. Heading into 2017, do you see a longer line of potential monetizations? And any thoughts on the opening up of the capital markets recently for some of your stronger Midstream MLP peers, albeit at somewhat hefty issuance costs?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Craig, it's Don. Thanks for the question. I think it's a bit early to comment on 2017. Again, we have a lot of options and we'll continue to evaluate what the market offers us as the best possible option and act accordingly. So, again, we'll continue to focus on growing the business and keeping our credit metrics in line and, again, look for the best opportunities as we go through this 2016 period.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning. You talked about the 10% head count reduction. Just wondering if you can maybe quantify the potential savings from your cost reduction efforts and when you expect to realize the full benefit?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Sharon. First of all, as we mentioned, we made that cut right at the very end of the first quarter. And that's about – our head count prior to that was around 6,900 in terms of our head count, so that's about 690 in terms of reduction. And that was heavily weighted towards some of our E&C space as well as in our areas of overhead with a lighter reduction in our field operating force. And so that is – you can think about that as – if you do the math on that, you can think about that as a little under $100 million of reduction, but we still are working to take that down further through some other activities and particularly on our supply chain side. And our team there's doing a fantastic job of continuing to bring in lower cost as we take advantage of a reduction in that space. So, overall, we're excited about the ability to reduce, particularly in that supply chain area. And we certainly never like to go through any kind of work force reduction around here, but I would tell you that the team did a very nice job administering that and proud of the way the organization held its head high through a difficult time there.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
That's helpful. I guess looking at the gathering volumes in the Central segment, it looks like the volumes were relatively level sequentially after declining for most of 2015. Can you maybe provide some color on the relative performance of some of the regions in the segment?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm sorry, is your question specifically on the Central?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Yes.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Yeah, on Central volumes.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Sure. Bob, you want to take that question?
Robert S. Purgason - Director:
Yeah, Sharon. As you pointed out, we've had a good, stable first quarter. And we're still seeing some declines in the Barnett and the Mid-Continent, as you would expect and consistent with other activities. It's offset by Haynesville predominantly, but Eagle Ford's kind of holding in there strong, too.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, great. And any update in terms of negotiations with Chesapeake on the rates?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Sharon, I'll take that. I would just tell you that we continue to work hard with them to look for win-win opportunities. And, again, we're pleased to get to do that with Chesapeake and consider them a very big and important customer. So we're always looking to find win-wins. We don't have anything specific to report on this quarter however.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And just a last question on the 2016 CapEx guidance. Any change I guess in that level, given the progress of some of your key projects and maybe the delay in Constitution?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Sharon, really no change in our overall capital plan for 2016.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. This is more of just a modeling question. But in the NGL segment, looks like your operating costs jumped up a bit this quarter relative to the last two quarters, $94 million versus running around $71 million. I'm just wondering if that's the new run rate or were there anything sort of one-off items this quarter?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
John, can you take that, please?
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
There should not be any very unusual ongoing matters here in the first quarter. I guess the only thing I think of and I'm not sure the numbers you're referring to, I haven't looked back at the charts here, is whether this FX impact is in those numbers. That would be non-recurring into future periods.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would just add to that that we did have quite a bit of cost in our startup of our Horizon facility and the new Redwater facility that goes with that in the quarter. So, some of that step-up is from the startup of that new facility in Canada, the CNRL Horizon facility.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. And then I guess for Don, can you just give us a number around the leverage metric you're really looking at post the asset sale? Is 4.5 times the bogey, or 5 times or 4 times, just where you're trying to get to? And then are the agencies going to give you any forward credit for some of maybe the bigger projects that you're working towards?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
I would say that we're working on ensuring that our leverage metrics, rating agency adjusted metrics are below 5 times and trending lower. And we do point out the sizeable investments we're making in projects will go into service in the future. And I think that's more a qualitative point with the agencies versus the primary metric that they look at.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And then it was somewhat answered already, but any thought from the WMB side of things of providing support, whether it's IDR waivers or other things as you're in the higher capital spending portion here?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Director:
Yeah, I'll just comment that we're in the middle of a planned merger. And in light of that, we're not going to comment on those kinds of issues.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Understood. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks. Good morning. Most of my questions have been hit, but I just wanted to expand on the Geismar question. So with the incremental cracking capacity coming online, don't you see pressure to ethylene margins going forward even though you have the gas to ethylene spread?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I would just say there is a number of derivative projects coming on as well and there's been some major outages recently from a couple of big international plants where there were some unfortunate events at some large plants overseas. And so we do think that there is a lot of ethylene capacity coming on. We also think there's a lot of derivative capacity coming on with that as well. And the U.S. really is positioned to continue to grow in its market share on a worldwide basis. And as well, something we're keeping our eyes on very closely is the ethylene export as the world continues to take advantage of the U.S.'s very low-cost natural gas-based olefins. And so we're keeping our eye on that and I think it's a reasonable question. John, I don't know if you would add any color to what I just stated there?
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
Yeah, the only thing I would add there is I think it's important to recognize that we're in a turnaround season now that's going to be prolonged through the remainder of this year, which certainly is going to I think keep supply constricted a bit. The U.S. ethylene industry continues to produce at record levels each quarter and so we see it growing, but it's growing at a relatively slow rate. And I guess I would also be expecting that, as we contemplate these plants coming on in the future, the world market for ethylene continues to grow at a reasonable pace. And so long as the U.S. remains able to export, which I think Alan just indicated it would be and we believe it would be, that these plants will likely feather-in more reasonably than you might expect. Big bumps of ethylene coming on, that could have deleterious effects on the market. It will have some impact, but I do believe the plants will come on in a more feathered fashion over this next couple of year period.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Thanks.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would just follow that just to say that remember as you run that math, remember to look at our length of ethane because if you're correct that we have that much new ethylene coming on in the U.S., the ethane margin and our assets that handle ethane are going to enjoy that as well. So, as you look in your model and try to look at that model, you need to make sure you appreciate the length that we would have if ethane were to get soaked up by all that ethylene cracking.
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
And then add to that, Alan, some incremental pipeline of revenues we'd enjoy as well.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Got you. Got you. Thank you. My second question, if I could. With the emerging NGL fundamentals, how do you think about getting to downstream business? Before a couple years back you had the Blue Grass initiatives. As you see these fundamentals strengthen, is that something that you're thinking about potentially getting to again, say, a year from now?
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would just say we have so much on our plate right now taking care of the natural gas demand side of the situation that when we think we have such huge competitive advantages on that front that that's really where our focus is going to be for the time being. Now having said that, we do continue to build out some of our purity systems in the Gulf Coast where the Gulf Coast continues to take advantage of very low cost NGLs and the Petchem expansion going on in the Gulf Coast. And of course, that's been a long-term strategy of ours to be taking advantage of the need for logistics movement around the Petchem industry, and so we will enjoy that. But I don't see us looking at any very large scale investment opportunities in the space that you reference.
Danilo Juvane - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Great. That's it for me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And we have ran out of time for today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Well, thank you all very much. Appreciate all the great questions. As always, I know it's a busy day and so we're just very excited to be in the space we are on the natural gas front right now and are really seeing our strategy really starting to pay off for us. And appreciate your continued commitment to the company. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
John D. Porter - Director-Investor Relations, Enterprise & Planning Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC James E. Scheel - Senior VP-Northeast Gathering & Processing
Analysts:
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC Selman Akyol - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker)
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams/Williams Partners 2015 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. And at this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - Director-Investor Relations, Enterprise & Planning:
Thank you, Angel. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions. And also we have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. This is going to be a fairly brief presentation, we do want to – we will take a look at the fourth quarter results and also drivers for the full year. We'll offer our perspective this morning on one of our very important customers, Chesapeake, and a lot of concerns have been raised there. And we'll look at upcoming drivers that'll drive 2016 along with our 2016 capital plan. And then, finally some thoughts on the strength of our strategy in this difficult commodity price environment. We're very pleased with the way our business is holding up and as well, the kind of opportunities that continue to come at us in our effort to continue to connect these low price natural gas supplies into growing demand markets. So with that, let's look on slide two here. We recorded another strong quarter demonstrating our continued project execution, reliable operating performance and the resilience of our business to grow despite sharply lower commodity prices and what turned out to be a very mild start to the winter here in the fourth quarter. Even with the reduced producer activities in the supply areas, we enjoyed continued growth in fee-based revenues, primarily from demand-driven projects and expansions that were brought into service during the year. Our continued focused on a clear strategy, project execution and cost management are evident in our results. And very importantly, despite the pressures impacting the industry, we once again saw the dramatic growth in our fee-based revenues offset the impact of continued lower commodity prices. In fact, our adjusted EBITDA was up 25% over 4Q 2014, and our full year adjusted EBITDA was up a total of 26% despite very low NGL and olefins margins. In fact, I think impressive status across all of our system. Just on our gas gathered volumes, we were up off a very big number in terms of our total gathered volumes. We were up 6% on total gathered volumes for the year despite a lower producers activities and a lot of very significant curtailments that continue to exist. Looking directly at the fourth quarter, the WPZ DCF of $718 million produced a coverage ratio of 0.99x and, of course, this is before we would – if you were to include the substantial impact of the $209 million IDR waiver. This would lift our coverage up to 1.39x. And of course, this is not insignificant and certainly provides support for funding our 2016 growth capital program. Highlights for the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2014 comparison, I'll just give you the highlights here. First of all, fee-based revenues were up $139 million or 12% and that was driven primarily by Atlantic-Gulf and with a lot of fee-based assets that came online during the year and as well as growth at Access. Our olefins margins were up $43 million to $71 million, and this was strong operating performance at our Geismar plant with low per-unit margins due to low olefins prices. So, great results on the operating side at Geismar and actually across all of our NGL & Petchem Services during the quarter, but relatively low olefins margins there in the fourth quarter. The proportional EBITDA of equity method investments were up $37 million or 22% and most of that was coming off of our Discovery asset where the Keathley Canyon Connector continues to perform very well. There was a little bit of maintenance during the period, but those volumes remain very strong out there on that system. NGL margins were down $45 million or 52% and NGL prices now in the fourth quarter were 13-year low. And the full year 2015 NGL margin was only $160 million, which represents less than 4% of our consolidated EBITDA during 2015. And I did want to make a note have here on the impairment. We took some very large impairments in the fourth quarter, and these were largely a result of dramatic decline in the market value of WPZ and some tests required there up against the full market value and in the fourth quarter. So that was the value of WPZ in the fourth quarter and then the implied market values of the investments and associated goodwill. So looking at the total market value of WPZ up against the implied market values of our investments and associated goodwill. Of course, as you'll recall, the impaired equity method investments and certain of the impaired goodwill relate primarily to the acquisition of Access Midstream Partners, which we were required to book a significant $2.5 billion gain in 2014 and this reflected our purchase price allocation to these assets in 2014. So, as you'll recall, we had a big gain in 2014 associated with that acquisition and a lot of that goodwill then was taken out with this new test against the market value. And so, now, just a few thoughts on the result by segment. Atlantic-Gulf had another great quarter, up $122 million all on fee-based revenues and so very impressive growth continued there in the Atlantic-Gulf. And for the full year, Atlantic-Gulf was actually up $453 million and a lot of this is coming off of projects like Gulfstar One as well as the Transco expansion projects, and again the Keathley Canyon Connector on our Discovery system, so tremendous growth there in our fee-based revenues. This was offset a little bit by lower NGL margins, of course, but overall really very impressive performance. You might have noticed as well that Atlantic-Gulf had a little bit of higher cost in the fourth quarter and most of this was just related to – we had some repairs on the Leidy Line, as well as some additional testing required by the regulators there. And so, we continue to work on the Leidy Line there where we had a rupture on that line earlier in the year. And so a lot of continued work there that shows up in our O&M expense. On the Access or what will now be the Central OA, we reported fourth quarter of 2015 adjusted EBITDA of $351 million and that was compared to $325 million, and a lot of this was just driven by a continued growth in the business. But we did as well have an increased ownership interest in the Utica East Ohio Midstream joint venture that helps drive some of that as well. On the Northeast G&P, flat fourth quarter 2015 to fourth quarter of 2014, but a 30% growth year-over-year. So, we were at in 2014 full year was $276 million and we were up $80 million to $356 million here in 2015 and for the full year. So, really driven by continued increased service fees at Ohio Valley Midstream, higher overall volumes and those were offset by some higher operating expenses, including some line repairs that were required earlier in the year as well there. Really important note here, we did sign a new gathering agreement with an existing customer during – here very recently and we were really excited about this that it's going – we do – it does produce a lower rate for the customer, but we've got some incremental volumes that are coming on associated with that agreement as well as some much larger acreage dedications that came with that. So, really excited about this new agreement. And we're not counting on any new drilling anticipated here for 2016 on that. And even without that new drilling, we expect our revenues to be held flat for 2016 despite the lower rate just because there are some new volumes that come to us as a result of transaction and some new wells – or some new production that's being tied in. So a lot of similar story in the Northeast where we continue to tie in production that's already been drilled. We're really not relying in the Northeast. We're really not relying on new drilling rigs out there. We're really just relying on tying in, continued tie in of production. But the real key force there will be when we start to see some of the takeaway projects take hold because that clearly is the constraint out here. It's not a matter of rigs running in the area; it's simply a matter of seeing some these big bottlenecks open up and then us tying in a lot of this already completed production and seeing that flow for us. In the fourth quarter – sorry, on the NGL & Petchem side, really great operating results for NGL & Petchem from an operating standpoint, but we did have lower unit margins during the period. So really pretty good operating stint, both in Canada and Geismar in terms of volumes, but again very low unit margins. Just to remind you there, for the year, we were $216 million lower, but this was due to the lack of the insurance proceeds and about $89 million lower commodity margins. So a big step down, but again most of that was just due to the loss of some assumed business interruption proceeds that we booked in 2014. In the West, great continued focus on cost management in the area. We were off about $15 million versus fourth quarter of 2014, and that was really driven by $27 million lower NGL margins as compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. And again, I'll remind you, NGL margins are now at a 13-year low. But really proud of the team out there and their continued focus on cost management and able to continue to generate very significant EBITDA despite low prices. Moving on to slide three, this is a really important slide here we wanted to show you. We certainly had a lot of questions about Chesapeake and our relationship and a lot of focus by investors on the credit risk related to Chesapeake. And so we really wanted to just take this opportunity to walk everyone through some facts and some of our perspective as a midstream service provider that plays a critical role in getting the natural gas production from a wellhead to marketable condition and location. So, first, I note that we have a very strong relationship with Chesapeake. We appreciate them as a great operator in the nation's very best shale resources. They have some of the very best acreage in large contiguous blocks, and we are very pleased to have the opportunity to serve them as a key customer and one of the best large scale operators from our perspective. So, I tell you, we are constantly impressed with the way this team continued to be able to lower their cost and work out creative solutions with us and other parties, and really thankful for the relationship. They are paying their bills in a timely manner as usual and including, we just recently got paid for the minimum volume commitment related to the Haynesville, and we fully expect them to pay the MVC invoice on the Barnett when it's due. It's not due yet. But we're excited about continue to work with them on that and fully expect that to come through as well, just as they paid the Haynesville on time. So, from our view, they continue to reduce their costs and operate efficiently and effectively to maintain liquidity. And nevertheless, though, we are mindful of the credit risk that these continued low prices pose for many producers, including Chesapeake. And so here's how we think about the risk. First of all, we have long-term dedications with strong contractual conveyances of interest in unproduced gas. We like our argument that we hold a current real estate interest in unproduced gas and that our covenant running with the land not subject to the rejection and bankruptcy. We certainly are following current bankruptcy cases like Sabine where the general question is at issue, but people should understand that the ultimate outcome in individual cases will turn on specific facts and circumstances. Regardless, even if the court were to rule we don't have such legal rights, our gathering lines are physically connected to Chesapeake's wellheads and pads and we provide a very critical service, conditioning and connecting Chesapeake's production to points where they can then choose the best markets for the long-haul transportation alternatives. In exchange for the dedication of production, we invested capital to build gathering lines that are uniquely positioned to serve Chesapeake's well. So all these systems were built out specifically for their needs and generally at their direction and to the size and scale that they needed to be able to produce volumes on a projected basis. In most cases, there are not other gathering lines nearby because these are big contiguous areas and these systems were built specifically for their production. And in many cases, our pipelines have been built on populated places such as beneath the city of Fort Worth and it would be very costly for others to replicate our gathering lines. And the rates of return that we generate from these investments and assets are very typical for a midstream provider. Likewise, our gathering lines have been in place for some time and thus the reserves behind them are now partially produced. To continue to produce such gas, Chesapeake and its creditors, if it ever came to that, would want and need to utilize our gathering lines to deliver gas to the markets. So, such gathering lines are very distinguishable from long-haul transportation service because the intra- and interstate pipeline initiate service after the gas has already pooled at marketable points. Producers then have many options to receive cash for their products other than transportation on any one particular interstate pipeline. If it did come to a bankruptcy, a producer can argue that it can reject certain types of contracts and we believe gathering contracts such as ours are not the type of contracts that would be rejected. But even if a gathering contract were allowed to be rejected, a producer and its creditors would continue to need the gathering service to be able to produce gas and create revenue. If a producer rejects the gathering contract in a bankruptcy, the gatherer will no longer be obligated to provide the gathering service. Furthermore, rejection of a contract is all or nothing. Therefore, the analysis of the risk of any producer's bankruptcy is best analyzed contract by contract and really understanding that the particulars of the services being provided and how unique those services are that are being provided. As any prudent midstream service provider would do, we have studied each of our Chesapeake contracts and considered the value of Chesapeake's reserves, our physical connection to their wells and their alternative options for delivering gas to market, and we believe that we understand much better than anyone the real value of our assets if it ever came to a bankruptcy process. But let me be very clear on this matter, we have great confidence in Chesapeake in their assets and more importantly, in their tremendous operating capabilities and management team. Thus far, they have continued to do all the right things in very difficult circumstances and we look forward to helping them be very successful for years and years to come and we have great confidence in their ability to do that. We will continue to find win-win solutions that align our interest and to support them where we can in their asset sales. And as you can see in the table on this slide, Williams' scope and scale of gathering in all of the key natural gas basins is significant. And there are significant non-Chesapeake working interests in basins as well that also give us confidence and the continued cash flows from these assets. So, overall, we'd just tell you we are very proud of our relationship with Chesapeake. We're very impressed with them and – but we also don't have our head in the sand and we are looking very closely to these alternatives. And we feel very strong about our position if it ever were to come to a bankruptcy. Moving on to slide four, this is just an overview here of some of the recent developments and what we see coming soon. First of all, I want to reiterate that the demand side of the natural gas market is really driving our capital investments and you can just see that as you look at some of these projects, the Transco Leidy expansion just came in and that – first part of that started up on December 8. And then we continue to bring segments on in-service through the month of December and now here in January, we are fully completed with all segments in service now for the Leidy Southeast expansion. Great work by the team under some difficult circumstances, but really great performance by the team that manage that project. The Transco Gulf Trace project, this is a project to serve the Cheniere's Sabine Pass LNG facility. Construction is underway with a target in-service of first quarter. 2017. We'd just tell you it's nice to be able to be doing construction in more friendly environments like Louisiana and the teams did a great job of bringing that project board as well. The Transco Gulf Connector project, which is the new long-term contract we just announced for 475 million a day of new expansion service that will also serve Cheniere's Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG facilities, that would be in 2019. And then just a note here quickly on the Marcellus and Utica volumes. The real story going on in the Marcellus and Utica is that we are seeing both growth in available production. So, what do we mean by available production? We mean the production if there were markets available that could actually be flowing. We continue to see that grow behind our systems and we also saw significant price-related shut-ins in the quarter. So this bottleneck, if you will, continues to grow in size with available production growing up behind a very constrained outlet and lower-than-usual regional demand in the areas. But I think it's important to know that we now have over 33% of the gathered volumes in the area and this really leaves us with great exposure once the bottlenecks are cleared. And I think what's really important to note there is that we're not relying on drilling capital for those volumes. All we need is some of those bottlenecks to open up and we'll have volumes flowing without the need for a lot of additional drilling capital. And so, this is very different in most areas of the country where there's a lot of concerns about producers not having the capital to drill. In this area, it's just a matter of the infrastructure being built out in front of it. And then, finally, our Geismar plant. Really proud of the way the team operated the plant and we exceeded our production expectations for the quarter there and are off to a good start here in 1Q of 2015 as well there – or, sorry, 1Q of 2016 as well. Just looking forward some things that are going to drive us looking forward. The Canadian Offgas Processing business, the Horizon project that you've heard us talk about quite a bit. That plant is now the Fort McMurray plant, so that's the plant that actually extracts the liquids out of the offgas is now rolling and it has began extracting liquids, but that will be a process here over the next three weeks or so to get that up to full production. And then, finally, we've got to some remaining work at Redwater to be able to fractionate all those liquids and we expect that to be coming on in March. So a lot of new revenues that will show up there on WPZ as those volumes hit both the pipeline and the Redwater fractionators. And then I'll remind you that the margin side of that business is left at WMB at the Horizon facility upstream. As well our Kodiak tieback, this is a tieback for Devil's Tower platform, and that project is being brought online and has been in the testing phase here for the last couple of weeks and is just about to begin to really add some very significant cash flow here in the first quarter. And then, the Gunflint tieback, which we expect to come on now in the second quarter, which will be our first big tieback to the Gulfstar One project and this is – will also be contributing very substantial cash flow growth with very minimal additional capital investment on our part. We do expect the Gulfstar production to be a little bit higher in the first quarter than we saw in the fourth quarter due to some well workover work that was going on out there, and so we're excited to see some of the benefits of that work that will start to improve things here into the first quarter and beyond. Last year, we announced plans to increase the capacity on our Eastern interstate pipeline from 10.8 Bcf to more than 17 Bcf per day by the end of 2017. And in fact, by 2017, we expect to double the capacity of the Transco system from its 2010 level. So once again, these projects just keep coming and we've got great transparency into our predictable growth and it provides clear evidence that Williams has a truly unique position in terms of our asset footprint, especially in challenging market times. Our backlog of project remains robust and the demand side project just keeps coming at us with amazing pace and consistency and, in particular, along the Transco system. These are fully contracted demand pull projects and we will continue to high-grade these opportunities as we balance constrained funding sources up against continued robust backlog. So, our issue is not a matter of backlog, we have plenty of great investment opportunity; it's really a matter of getting lower – better funding sources and low cost funding sources to supply all these opportunities. So, we're in a envious position of having plenty of opportunity and again just a matter of getting those funded appropriately. Moving on to slide five. So as we said before, much of the attention in the industry is focused on producer shut-ins and commodity prices. We remain focused on serving and capturing the growing demand for natural gas. This focus is especially important in the Northeast where we're working to unlock the tremendous value of the Marcellus and Utica areas by providing market access via the Constitution and Atlantic-Gulf projects. Our strategic remains intact and the underlying fundamentals of our business are strong despite reduced producer activities in the supply areas. And just a few weeks ago, we announced our revised business plan to address the realities of our current market environment while continuing to invest in our business. In addition to significantly lower operating expenses in 2016, the revised 2016 plan includes growth capital funding needs of around $2.1 billion, which is about $1 billion or 32% less than our previous plans. The plan includes $1.3 billion for Transco expansions and other interstate pipeline projects. And the non-interstate pipeline growth that's embedded here totals about $700 million, and this is primarily reflecting additional investments across our gathering and processing systems where capital spending for gathering and processing in 2016 will be limited to really new producer volumes, including mostly wells that are already drilled and completed, but that are waiting connecting infrastructure. So, as I said earlier, we're really not depending on a whole lot of drilling here in 2016; we're really just focused on connecting and getting volumes that are already connected flowing. Moving on to slide six here just to close out. First of all, the fourth quarter results certainly demonstrate the resilience of our fee-based assets. Approximately 93% of PZ's gross margin were from fee-based revenues. The continued growth in Atlantic-Gulf segment continue to be driven by great expansions on our Transco system, as well as our deepwater volumes. And sequential growth in the Marcellus and Utica volumes really was impressive; in fact, total operated volumes in this key region were up 8% as you compare the fourth quarter to the third quarter. While the total volumes in the regions, so not just ours, but looking at the total industry production, actually declined a little less than 1%. So again, total region declined a little less than 1%, but our volumes were actually up by 8%. So really continue to grow our market share in this very important region. Our 2016, WPZ business plan really did address the realities of our current market environment and continues our investments in growing the demand side of our business. Certainly, we continue to high-grade our opportunities and a lot of that capital is going towards really important demand-driven infrastructure projects that serve long-term natural gas needs of local distribution companies, electric power generation, LNG and industrial sources. And so, just to reiterate, this quarter's results and our continued strong backlog of projects are a direct reflection of our strategy to uniquely position Williams to connect the best natural gas supplies to the best markets regardless of significant market swings and cycles. And so, as we move to questions, I'd like to highlight what John mentioned in the opening. The Williams' Board of Directors is unanimously committed to completing the transaction with Energy Transfer for the merger agreement executed on September 28, 2015 and delivering the benefits of the transaction to Williams' stockholders. Beyond that, though, we're only discussing our fourth quarter and year-end results and we ask that you keep your questions focused on our results. We will not take questions related to the pending transaction between Williams and ETE or related matters, and we thank you in advance for your cooperation for that request. And so now, operator, let's please move on to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question will come from the line of Christine Cho of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone. I was wondering if we could start with any insights that you guys have from your talks with the rating agencies and your commitment to the investment grades rating at WPZ, given all the agencies had taken action before your press release detailing reduced CapEx. Any color on how they feel about your CapEx cut, deferrals, your Chesapeake exposure, your asset sales, et cetera? Also, if you could talk about where they would like to see your debt/EBITDA ratio to get to? I mean, are they still okay with that 5 times?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Christine, this is Don. Good morning. Great question. We've been in regular dialogue with S&P and the other agencies. And I really can't speak for the agencies, but I think we've had a very constructive conversation and I think they appreciate the strength of our business, as well as some of the challenges ahead, and we're continuing to work with them and look forward to their decision. And again, we're very much focused on maintaining that investment grade rating, but obviously it's their call.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. I guess in that context, you stated at least $1 billion of asset sales in the first half of 2016 in the original press release. What kind of asset sales are you assuming? And I'm curious to know if you started the process for this and what type of parties you're talking to. Is it utility, midstream guys, financial guys? And should we expect to see any announcements before the deal closes or do we need to see the deal closed first?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I would say that we're preparing for the asset sales. We've not launched anything as of this date, yet we're confident that we can sell the assets and generate the liquidity that we previously outlined kind of in the second quarter. But at the same time, we're not identifying the assets at this point. We don't think it's in our interest to do so. We have quite a few assets that we could in fact monetize, so we're going to keep our options open, but we remain confident in our ability to do so. The merger does not need to close. So we'll execute on that either before or after the merger, depending on the exact merger timing.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And then, I just wanted to touch upon the bankruptcy comments that you guys had. Alan, you talked about with respect to a rejection, it's all or nothing. And so, I'm curious to know, let's say, the bankruptcy court says that these contracts cannot be rejected, does that mean legally, you guys aren't required to mark to market the rate at all or let go of the MVCs or is that debatable?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. No, that is right. It is everything. Those contracts are all-in-one and it's all the terms of the contract, so there isn't ability to cherry pick the terms the contract.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you so much.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Brandon Blossman of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company. Please go ahead.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, gentlemen.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Alan, I'll start off on a bright note. Transco expansion projects, some puts and takes in the backlog, but it looks like, by and large, that looks like on track for a multi-year period. Would you care to contrast Transco's projects with others that are on the project list across the board and the peers in terms of likelihood of going ahead and maybe benefit on an incremental basis to Transco as some of those more heavily producer-backed projects that don't show up in 2016 and 2017?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. I think we really don't have those risks in our projects right now. They're fully contracted and they're very secured credit standing behind those contracts. So we really don't have that kind of risk in the projects that we are utilizing with Transco. And so there are a lot of producer-pushed projects out there with very different kind of credit rating standing behind them, but in our case, we feel very strong about the credit and the term standing behind our projects. And there's certainly great push to move ahead with those and a lot of volumes packed up behind those systems ready to flow if and when we get those projects completed.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
And this is looking into a crystal ball, but do you think there's any possibility of some incremental counterparties that are on projects that may not go forward that would eventually accrue to the Transco system?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Well, perhaps. The only thing I would say to that is there would have to be expansions likely because we have a really clear idea where all those volumes are going to come from that are supporting those projects that we have and they're completely sold out. So it would have to be in the form of expansions beyond what we have today.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Fair enough. On the gathering and processing CapEx more than cut in half, is there any incremental risk to or possibility to that $700 million getting cut further for 2016?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, to a certain degree. For instance, some of that capital is out in the Permian, and in that case, we're going off of the operators' indication on how much capital will be spent out there; operator being the operator of the midstream assets. Most of that's non-operator investment for us and so we're depending on both the producers and the midstream operator forecast of that and that continues to be a moving target in many basins. So I would say in those areas, those more oil-driven basins could be some movement down. I would say in the areas like in the Marcellus or the Utica, we're managing that very closely and trying to optimize the timing of the capital right in line with the opening of new projects coming out of the area. And so there's probably some room to optimize, if you will, and the way some of that capital until the projects are specifically coming on time. So, we could see a little bit of that slip, but a lot of that is already underway and the work is ongoing.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Actually, that's helpful color. And then just finally from me on that last point, Marcellus and Utica volumes. You said you saw some shut-ins fourth quarter. Any indication that those are coming back online with winter demand in the first quarter?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. We saw a little bit pickup and we certainly saw interest from producers who shut in and were bringing back online. So we actually have seen some people taking advantage. We've seen some these cold weather surges. What you have to really remember about the demand in the Northeast there is it's driven by two things. First of all, its capacity to get out of the region and that's pretty fixed. In other words, those pipelines are completely full getting out of the region and so that doesn't move a whole lot. But what does move in a regional demand based on weather loads in the area where gas is consumed in the region. And so that'll be either driven by cold weather, which we've seen a little bit here in the first quarter, or it'll be driven by very hot weather in the summertime and those are the two things that will drive the variable. Until some of these projects – new projects come online, that will be what drives the volumes in the Northeast. There's plenty of gas ready to meet that demand as it opens up.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
All right. Thank you, Alan. Appreciate it.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Ted Durbin of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Appreciate all the color on the Chesapeake contract. I guess I'm just wondering about – it seems like I'm sensing a tone change from you around your willingness to renegotiate the contract. I think you'd already done the one in the Haynesville. Does that now change your view there? And there's an argument out there that such as commodity prices that's pressuring Chesapeake it's also the above-market gathering contracts. I just love your thoughts there.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. No, our – I'm sorry if I gave you that impression. We continue to work with Chesapeake in areas to help in negotiating and I would say nothing has changed on that. Our relationship with them is very strong. And the concept of the rate – we keep hearing this above-market rate and I think what people need to remember there is that the rates get set based on the capital that we spent and the returns that are very normal returns in the market. And so, we hear this term above-market rates a lot of the time, but in fact, really the returns that we're generating are very normal. What's occurred that caused the rates to go higher in some areas is where the volumes haven't shown up, but we're still the asked return on our invested capital is very normal for the space. But certainly no indication – or no, I didn't mean to indicate that our tone with Chesapeake has changed. We're simply – and I want to make really clear on this, all we're trying to address is all the concerns that have been expressed by the investors and media, not necessarily our own. We've always kept an eye on the issue as we do with any big customer, but our relationship with Chesapeake and our confidence in them remains very high.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Appreciate that. Maybe just a couple of other ones from me on Chesapeake issue. What is the returns revenue or EBITDA you're earning right now in the Barnett, in the Haynesville and then can you give us a sense of the overall contribution from Chesapeake to your EBITDA?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
We'd take on that first part in terms of our return. Yeah, those returns were set kind of in the mid-teen range on all of those assets and that's what we continue to try to seek out like in our renegotiations in the Haynesville and so forth. We continue to seek out that type of return there. So, that really hasn't changed. The overall contribution of Chesapeake to our EBITDA, I'll have Don maybe take that one.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. I think it's around 20% plus or minus. It depends on the period, but somewhere in that zipcode. I think 18% was the most recent.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. That's helpful. And then lastly from me on the financing side, you did the Transco bond recently. Is that another tool that you think like you can use more, I hate to call it a stand-alone leverage at Transco, relative to other financing sources that are out there?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. I think our plan is to keep Transco in the sweet spot for its rate-making purpose. So we are not inclined to put more leverage on Transco. Now, Transco has a lot of growth so, certainly, it'll naturally absorb some additional debt as it continues to build out its projects. But in terms of just adding leverage to Transco, that's not our plan.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. That's it from me. Thank you.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Becca Followill of the U.S. Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Good morning. Few questions for you. One, can you quantify the lower OpEx that you're looking for the reduction in terms of dollars for 2016? And then the second one is on the contract that you recently renegotiated with a customer for lower rates in exchange for higher volumes. Are you looking at doing other of the – more of those with customers that are not Chesapeake?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Becca, I will take the second half of that and I'll let John take the first part of that. As to the contracts in any negotiation, that was a situation where the rate from a legacy cost of service contract was so high that there was no way the reserves in the area would ever be produced and so it was a matter of rate being even in excess of the price of gas. And so, this was a matter of actually getting the gas flowing and assuring ourselves that the gas would continue to flow in exchange for some additional volumes and additional dedication in the area. So, whenever we have opportunities like that that we can bring increment to our gas – or, sorry, our cash flows as we look on a long-term basis, we certainly will try to take advantage. And there are plenty of win-win opportunities out there to increase our cash flows to get gas flowing that's not flowing today. Obviously, we have to be cognizant of the fact because I mentioned earlier that there is only so much gas that's going to get out of the region. And so we want to maximize those revenues on our system because we realized that when Mcf starts flowing in one place, it likely means that it didn't come off a competitor system; it would come off of our own system. So we certainly are cognizant of that issue and the strength getting out of the basin.
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
On the cost question, Becca, we've not put an exact number out there, I guess, for significant cost production that we're committed to. We're already implementing some of those cost reductions. We'll continue to implement additional cost reductions prior to the merger date. And then, we would expect even more significant cost reductions to follow the merger. So the merger date is a variable in that, as well as our joint planning with the ETE team in terms of such cost reduction. So we're not prepared to put a number out there at this point, but we will as we get further along in the year.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Understand. Thank you. And then just to go back to the question on the rate reduction, are there producers – because we get these questions constantly, are the producers actively requesting rate reductions from you guys in order to help them out through this period?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Certainly that's the case, Becca, and I think what our decision is, is what benefit do we get out of that. Again, we have to look at it knowing that there's only a certain amount of gas that's going to get out of the region. And so, we have to determine what the benefit that they're willing to offer in exchange for us lowering the rate up against current prices in a way that provides the cash margin. So, we understand people's cash margins very well. Truly no secret in terms of what that looks like to producers because we get it from so many different people. And it really just boils down to who's got the best offer in terms of exchange for us in terms of us being incented to see their gas flows over somebody else's.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Got you. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Selman Akyol of Stifel. Please go ahead.
Selman Akyol - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Selman Akyol - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
First question I guess for Don. Going back to sort of the credit rating agencies discussion, you said you look forward to a decision. Can you say when you expect to get a decision from them?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I can't give you their timing. I think, again, you'll have to speak to the agencies on that. But again, we've been working collaboratively with them to provide the information that they need to make their rating decisions.
Selman Akyol - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. And then just in terms of the related shut-ins, just wondering if you could just put a quantity to that in terms of how much has been shut in on your system?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. I'm going to ask Jim Scheel to chime in and give some specifics on that if he could, please.
James E. Scheel - Senior VP-Northeast Gathering & Processing:
Sure, Selman. As we began the fourth quarter, we had just under 1 Bcf a day shut-in primarily, as we've already talked about, due to lower pricing coming out of the summer and some lack of takeaway capacity. As we begin the year, we probably have right at about 1.1 Bcf a day or perhaps a little bit more shut-in behind the system as we've seen producers continue to complete wells but throttle the production due to price. So it's kind of hard to know until we see a full flow, but we're estimating right at the 1.1 Bcf. And really just to put that in perspective, if that was all flowing, the Northeast would go from about 6 Bcf a day to 7 Bcf a day and our incremental EBITDA would probably increase by about $180 million to $900 million, overall.
Selman Akyol - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. Thank you. That does it for me.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Sharon Lui of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning. You indicated, I guess, there are several projects slated for in-service during the first half of 2016. Can you just remind us what's the potential cash program for projects like the tie-ins?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, I don't think we've provided – I'm looking at John here.
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
Yeah.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I think, Sharon, we provided specifics on those, but I do think we've said that those are significant. And so you can look to the kind of revenues that we get off of facilities like Devil's Tower and Gulfstar One. And you can think about that from a volumetric standpoint as both the Kodiak tie-in that comes into Devil's Tower and the Gunflint tieback comes on to Gulfstar, but they're certainly very significant. Of course, just like any deepwater wells, they come on gangbusters and decline over time, but they will be fairly significant in terms of cash flow additions when they start up.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you. And then, I guess just following up on Christine's question about discussions with the rating agencies and the distribution policy, just your latest thoughts on whether a distribution reduction would be an option you would take to defend the investment grade rating?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Sharon, this is Don. We have a number of options. Obviously, we pointed at cost reductions, asset sales, potential partners on some of our projects to reduce capital needs and a variety of other tools. We certainly are mindful of the fact we've got significant cash flow that goes out in the form of distributions, but again we don't have any further guidance on that but that's always an option.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And maybe this question is for John. In terms of looking at Geismar, I mean ethylene prices still remain pretty depressed. Just wondering what's your outlook for the balance of the year in terms of ethylene and propylene prices.
John R. Dearborn - Senior VP-Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Partners GP LLC:
Yeah. Thanks, Sharon, for the question. As we take a look forward, I think it's rather well-known in the industry that there's a rather large turnaround season ahead of us here in the second quarter. And so, on the ethylene side, we think that's going to be up favorable to margins during the second quarter. But then as we look at the ethylene industry overall, in North America this past year, we set an all-time new record for ethylene production. And of course, our ability to export ethylene and ethylene derivatives is somewhat yet limited by bagging and terminalling particularly in the polyethylene case. And so we would expect that the second half of the year on ethylene reverts back to margins more akin to what we're experiencing today. On the propylene side, likewise propylene refinery turnarounds are happening right around now. They get those done in expectation of gasoline production for the summer season basically. And so, we have a rather stable outlook on propylene at the moment through the rest of the year.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of John Edwards of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Yeah. Hi. Just wanted to clarify – going back to Chesapeake and how things work in a bankruptcy scenario. We're just curious with the MVCs then, would those stay or would those go? Or are they separate from some of the contracts? I mean, any color you can provide on that would be helpful.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, sure. Just to be clear, those MVCs are part and parcel to the agreement. There's no separate agreement; it's all one agreement. And in a proceeding – any proceeding, the final decision there would be for the creditors to decide if they wanted to accept or reject the contract. And so that's how that would go. And it's all or none in terms of they don't get to again decide anything. So I know there's been a lot of talk about the MVCs being at risk, but that's somewhat – I'm not sure what's driven that assumption by the investor base, but that's not the way it works. And as well, the market-based rate issue, while that might occur during a short-term period, during the proceedings, there might be an ability to take something to market rates if all the other protections that we talked about were to fail. Then it would just be during the interim period prior to the settlement of the proceedings.
John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. So, I mean as a practical matter, would there be the possibility to renegotiate those and then submit it to the court for approval? Or is it just literally simply it's all or none, take it or leave it?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. No, John. I think if there was a reason for us to negotiate, then, yes, that could be part of a settlement. But the decision really is to accept or reject. And really, our point is if the contract is rejected, then we no longer have an obligation to provide service. And because these assets are built uniquely for these reserves, the ability to duplicate these assets would be, from our vantage point anyway, in most of these cases just would not be feasible to build or duplicate all these facilities in these very heavily – particularly places like the Barnett where it's very heavily populated and very expensive to build in, especially when you've got less reserves than you started with to build the assets in the first place. So, anyway, it could come down to a negotiation if there was value to be shared between the parties in a better contract, but our point is just that there isn't any ability to just separate. If somebody accepts the contract, they accept the contract in its whole. And if they reject it, then they take the risk of not being able to get their product moved out of the basin.
John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. That's helpful. And then just following on the contracts that are up for renewal or renegotiation. So following an earlier question, I think it was Selman that was asking it and the answer was – $180 million to $900 million is the amount that I guess would be – I mean, is that a renegotiation or was that just the amount that's due to shut-in? So just for you to clarify on that.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Oh, sorry, this is on Jim Scheel's. No, I think I can clean that up. All that is – Jim was saying, if the existing shut-in gas that's already contracted that's sitting behind our systems today, because it doesn't have anywhere to go, it's constrained in terms of bottleneck. It's already connected to our systems and ready to flow, so there's no additional capital required by anybody, but what has to happen is the markets in the downstream long-haul have to open up. And if that were to open up, that's the amount of – that $180 million is the amount of incremental income that we would see, or EBITDA.
John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
All right. That's helpful. And then just last question along those lines. In terms of contracts that are in current discussion or renegotiation, is there any kind of EBITDA-at-risk figure you can provide to us or how should we be thinking about that?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. No, we really – so far in our negotiations, we've been able to hold our EBITDA steady under these contracts. And, of course, that's extremely important to us so we haven't backed up in these negotiations. We haven't backed up our EBITDA that we're getting in the current environment. So that hasn't occurred and we wouldn't expect it to.
John Edwards - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. That's super helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
And gentlemen, there are no further questions. At this time, I'd like to hand it back over to Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Okay. Very good. Again, thank you all very much for joining us. Really pleased with the way the business continues to operate in this difficult commodity environment, and very excited about the amount of growth projects that are out in front of us that are consistent with our strategy of taking advantage of seeing these low price natural gas really develop a lot demand. And so, we're very excited about where we sit and we appreciate your interest in the company. Thank you for joining us.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer Donald R. Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc. Rory Lee Miller - Senior Vice President, Atlantic – Gulf Operating Area
Analysts:
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc. Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Ted J. Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co. Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Bhavesh M. Lodaya - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker)
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Williams/Williams Partners Third Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website, williams.com. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions. And we also have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us. Walter Bennett leads the West; John Dearborn leads NGL and Petchem Services; Rory Miller leads Atlantic-Gulf; Bob Purgason leads Access Midstream; and Jim Scheel leads Northeast G&P. In our presentation materials you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we reconcile to General Accepted Accounting Principles. These reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the presentation materials. With that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Great. Thank you, John, and good morning everyone. Thanks for being on the call with this early this morning. Before we discuss our third quarter results, I'd like to provide a brief update on the transaction we announced with Energy Transfer on September 28. We are on the path to completion and we expect to file the proxy statement soon. The transaction will then be subject to SEC review and regulatory approval and is expected to close in the first half of 2016. With that, I want to reiterate that the focus of today's call is going to be on our financial and operational results for the third quarter. And I ask that you please keep your questions focused on our results, and I want to thank you in advance for your cooperation on that. So we are going to hold tight to that. And so, now, just some brief thoughts on the fundamentals relevant to the third quarter and the industry in general. Overall, I have to say, it really was a great third quarter for us from an operational performance perspective, a project delivery perspective, and progress towards future growth. We remain very focused on execution, on cost management, and taking advantage of the great asset positioning that our strategy has delivered, and I think this focus really showed up here in the third quarter. Importantly, despite the fundamental pressures on our industry from dramatically lower commodity prices, we've continued with very substantial growth in our adjusted EBITDA and DCF, so really, really showing the strength as we continue to see prices erode and some really dramatically low NGL prices in the quarter, but our strategy of continuing to invest in these big fee-based projects is really starting to overwhelm those lower prices. And so that's not to say we aren't feeling some of the effects of the low commodity prices directly in our commodity margins and indirectly via the volume shut in on some of our gathering systems, particularly in the Northeast. However, because of our unique position, we continue to deliver strong results and we see strong growth ahead from our projects, especially on the demand or market side of our business as the U.S. industries and the international markets look to take advantage of North America's abundant and low-cost natural gas supplies. The North American producers continue to really amaze us and continue to innovate and deliver production at costs levels that no one thought was possible even a year ago, and while this has led to painfully over-supplied markets in the short-term, it continues to lead the way towards growing demand and expanding prosperous markets for natural gas and natural gas derivatives. And so, over the long-term, we think we're really seeing a supply-led expansion, and I know that people are getting impatient about that, but I can assure you, as you look through our backlog of projects, it's very evident to us that that capital is going in place to pave the way for growing demand. So the current barrier to the success that we speak of and look forward to really is the low-cost access to these expanding markets and that's in the way of pipelines primarily, but also other infrastructure required. And we are certainly building out this capacity, it is not just important for Williams, but for the industry, and it's also important for the North American economy. And we really are very excited to be taking on these important challenges at Williams and see it as a critical next role in really delivering the tremendous value that the North American producers have developed via their innovation and continue the learnings in developing our low-cost resources here in the U.S. So with that, let's move on to slide two. Overall, our strong third quarter results underscore the effectiveness of our strategy to connect the best natural gas supply to the best markets with all this fee-based infrastructure we continue to invest in. This accounted for more than 90% of our gross margin during the quarter and will continue to be that for quite some time. And the tremendous efforts by our teams to deliver the continuous string of large-scale infrastructure projects required to realize the fruits of the strategy. Once again, we showed our ability to deliver substantial growth in EBITDA and DCF despite much lower commodity prices; and in fact, four segments of our five segments realized substantial growth and our fee-based revenue, which was up over $200 million in the quarter, overwhelmed the dramatic drop in commodity margins from the third quarter of 2014. Additionally, our DCF of $754 million delivered a 1.04 coverage, and that's even without recognizing the benefit of the $209 million IDR waiver for the quarter that was associated with the WPZ/WMB merger termination. So let me now drill into the drivers for this 21% improvement in EBITDA for the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2014 comparison. First of all, big congratulations to our Atlanta-Gulf team who delivered $414 million for the quarter, up 53%. Even more impressive was that this was in the face of dramatically lower NGL margins in the Gulf Coast, and the drivers for this strong performance were a lot of projects continuing that were brought on earlier in the year, things like Gulfstar One, Discovery's Keathley Canyon Connector, but also a full quarter on new Transco projects, including Rockaway Lateral in New York. In addition to that, the team also delivered a new project during the third quarter, which was the first phase of the Virginia Southside lateral, which our team delivered on time; and we also were able to get some early revenues from the mainline services associated with the Leidy Southeast project, and that we brought in those revenues well ahead of schedule. Of course, the Leidy Southeast lateral is not yet online, but the mainline portion for gas flowing from that lateral, we were able to bring some of that on early. So great job by both our commercial team and our project teams in continuing to deliver (08:32) on that. And as you'll see on the next page, you'll see a string of projects that Atlantic-Gulf continues to grow as we provide capacity for the demand side of this growing natural gas market. At the Access level, $351 million of adjusted EBITDA. That was up 9% on – this is really driven on fee-based revenue growth, of course, and we saw both the mix of volume growth and contractual benefits across multiple areas provide steady growth in EBITDA despite challenging commodity prices in those basins as well. Specifically, the increase in adjusted EBITDA between 2014 and 2015 was driven by higher fee-based volumes and contractual support from the minimum volume commitment agreements, as well as the increased ownership interest in the Utica East Ohio Midstream. And so, as you'll recall, we transacted on that earlier in the year, and so that delivered here for us in the third quarter as we stepped that up. And this was despite that area being impacted by very low commodity prices in this basin for both gas and NGLs. And so we did see some shut-ins in that area that were fairly significant in the third quarter, but we've seen a lot of that production return to service now, headed into the fourth quarter. In the Northeast G&P, $87 million, up 28%, also on higher fee-based revenue and this certainly during the quarter – a few things to note here, price-related shut-ins from our producers did dramatically impact the fee-based revenue growth on our gathering volumes, but this – we still managed to grow those volumes by 13% despite some very large shut-ins in the quarter. And as well, our volumes processed. So the inlet volumes to our (10:34) processing plants actually grew by over 40% and NGL production was up 2.5 times last year's production; thanks to new processing facilities that were installed in the first quarter at OVM. Of course, the NGL & Petchem, I was glad to see a solid quarter of operations from the expanded Geismar plant, and the team hit some very impressive production levels during the quarter as they really started to learn what they could do with the new facility there, but unfortunately, the ethylene margins that we realized during the quarter were much lower than we had expected earlier. But again, from an operational perspective, some nice performance coming from the team there. Canada also had strong production levels with propylene sales being up 29%, but also suffered weak pricing in the propylene area there as well. The NGL services side had a strong operating quarter as well. And so when we speak of that, that's our NGL transportation and storage piece that's in our (11:40) NGL & Petchem unit. And actually saw the NGL transport volumes on our Overland Pass Pipeline go up by 59%. So overall, a big step up in adjusted EBITDA from $22 million to up to $85 million for this business unit in the quarter. And then, finally, while the West saw a 28% decline in its adjusted EBITDA to $161 million really driven by dramatically lower NGL margins, it really was a good operating quarter in terms of the team doing everything they could to deliver the best numbers. And we really saw that show up in the way of lower operating costs, and the team was able to hold our fee-based service revenues flat versus third quarter of 2014. And so really, really great effort by the teams out there to keep the volumes continuing to flow out there and continue to reduce our costs. The NGL unit margins that we realized in the West actually were at a 10-year low, as we saw NGL – sorry, we saw NGL sales fall by over $70 million this year in the 3Q versus 3Q comparison. Total volumes on Northwest Pipeline were up 14% and this is due to both the increased use of natural gas for power generation in the Northwestern states as well as some basis differential spreads that were existing between prices like ACO (13:21) and the Western states. So really a good sign. I'll tell you, (13:23) when we see volumes pick up, even though they're interruptible and people taking use of the capacity, when you see that kind of increase in our throughput volumes on the system, that's always a good sign for long-term firm (13:35) sales, which is really where we make our money on a pipe like that. So moving on to slide three here, just a picture here of the continued delivery of projects and great job of our team continuing to put these projects into service. We said back in the first half of the year that the demand side of the natural gas market is driving our capital investments, and I want to touch on some of these projects here. First of all, the Transco Virginia Southside, as I mentioned earlier, was placed into service in September of 2015, and, of course, we look forward in the fourth quarter here to see the benefit of a full quarter there rather than just the one month. I also would just note there, really impressive execution by our team who really had some very difficult obstacles to overcome in the construction in that area, and I won't bore you with all of the details, but I would just say that the ability to deliver that on schedule given some of the obstacles that the team faced there was very impressive, and I want to recognize the great efforts there. On Gulfstar One, we continue to see strong fee-based contributions to EBITDA. Lots of work going on right now out on that platform to tie back the Gunflint prospect and to further improve production from the existing completed wells. On the – moving to the Discovery facilities, continue high utilization on the KCC system. We continue to see record volumes on that system and the team is doing everything they can to maximize throughput, because there is a lot of throughput wanting to get through that system right now. And as well, we're seeing a lot of exciting growth on the horizon for this investment as well. And so really excited about the future for Discovery out there, both in the current and in the future. On the Northeast G&P, on our gathering processing in the Northeast; we did execute the Pennant JV. And just to give you a little bit of color on that. That's a joint venture that really allowed us to take advantage of some large dedications that we had up in the area and that were some legacy acreage dedicated into that (15:59) we had up there and we were able to combine those acreage dedications with some players that already had some flowing production in the area as well as already had a lot of the capital invested in some new infrastructure up there. So really excited about the work that our team did there to take advantage of our acreage dedication and find a way to work with partners in the area. That's a very capital efficient way for us to monetize some of those big acreage dedications up there in Northwest Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio. On the dry Utica side, of course, we announced a significant increase in the dry Utica acreage from Chesapeake in the quarter. But we also are really excited to see some significant dry Utica wells showing up in the OVM area, so right there, just to the East of the Ohio River, right in our backyard there in OVM, and really seeing some impressive wells that are being completed on the same pads that were earlier developed for the Marcellus-rich area, and really this is a common story here for the Northeast; just tremendous resource potential up there, and an ability to produce a lot of gas at very low cost. But we sit here and – as a whole industry – and really are anxious to see the new takeaway into the structure (17:17) goes into service. And I'll just tell you, there is a lot of growth potential for the future up here and really just dependent – not really on improved prices from where we are today really, just access to those markets both on the gas and the NGL side. So really, really excited to see the opportunities continue and the growth for the future up here just continues to expand its horizon for us. On the Haynesville, the 2016 and 2017 MVC cash flows were unchanged via our contract renegotiation with Chesapeake and we were able to extend our dedication through 2035, and also brought in a very substantial additional drilling commitment, which will drive those increased volumes beyond the end of the MVC obligations there in 2017. So great job. I know there has been a lot of debate out there. But I'll tell you, from my perspective, any time we can hold our current cash flows – commitment to cash flows via those MVCs and expand the Horizon and help a customer continue to grow for the future and us enjoy that growth with them, I think that is a win-win. I'm really proud of the team and very excited to continue to work with Chesapeake on finding ways that are mutually beneficial to our organizations. At Geismar, the expanded plant, as I mentioned earlier is meeting our production expectations, and it actually – even though some very hot periods will tend to lower our throughput capability, we hit some pretty impressive numbers relative to our expectation in production for the quarter and expect to see that continue here into the fourth quarter. We also announced the fee-based off-take contract that we executed for the Alberta PDH facility and we are moving to the next phase of project development, and we do expect the FID or the final investment decision in the third quarter of 2016. But I would tell you, a lot of great work going on there by the teams and really it's hard work to make sure we know (19:42) exactly what our estimate is going to be and that we execute that project in a flawless manner. So a lot of time and care being taken on the front end to get that right, exactly how we ought to be taking on a big project like that. In addition, looking forward, I want to touch on just a few projects that are going to come on later this year. First of all, the Transco Leidy Southeast expansion. Really important, not just for the cash flows that that project will deliver, but as well, because it's going to provide additional gas takeaway of about 525 million a day coming out that'll be in service in the fourth quarter of 2015. Our Canadian Offgas Processing project, a project we refer to as Horizon; we expect that to be mechanically complete here in the fourth quarter of 2015. We don't expect any meaningful cash flow from this asset until first quarter of 2016 as we'll be starting this up in the dead of winter up in Fort McMurray, Alberta; and if you've ever been up there in that part of the year you know what I am talking about. So great job by the teams really trying to push through to get that project completed and we are looking forward to bringing that big project on line and into service well during 2016. And then finally, our Kodiak tieback to our Devils Tower platform, is expected to come on in the fourth quarter of 2015. And a lot of times this gets left off of our project list just because we're not spending the capital on that, so it doesn't show up as a major project where we're being reimbursed what capital we are spending, I should say. But it is a very meaningful additional to our cash flow. And so it really is an exciting project for us and continues to show that our deepwater strategy is alive and well with Devils Tower moving into its, I guess,12th or 13th year now of operation. Once again – I think there is a very extensive list and I'm proud of our teams for the progress they continue to make and the growth they're delivering, and Williams really does have a truly unique position in terms of our asset footprint and the kind of projects that we continue to string together. Moving on to slide four, you can see here a list of demand-driven projects. It is very significant. So while most of the attention in the industry for the past year or so has been focused on prices, production curtailments and shut-ins; we've really been focused on serving the growing demand side for natural gas and we expect to see that continue. And as you can see from this chart, much of our growth potential for the future is on the demand side of the business. We think that's critical to expand out into those key markets and we're really pleased to be positioned the way we are. Our focus is especially important in the Northeast where we've got many producers up there that are really, really critical to them to get access to those markets, and we take those obligations very serious to get those developed and working hard to overcome continued regulatory and political hurdles that exist in getting all this big infrastructure in place up there. And so in the Northeast, while we, as I mentioned earlier, we did have quite a bit of gas shut-in in the third quarter, it really is a great opportunity for us as we continue to invest out. In fact, if we touch where we're (23:31) invested in in these assets in the Northeast, we're exposed to these assets that gather nearly a third of all the gas being produced up there. And so as we are able to develop our own infrastructure for takeaway as well as peers in the industry, we're going to see some tremendous growth that does not depend on additional drilling rigs because there's – not only is there a lot of gas shut-in for economic reasons up there today, we also have a tremendous amount of drilled and uncompleted wells and a big inventory of that, that again is just waiting on the right price signals not from the Henry Hub kind of natural gas prices but they are locally in the area. So we're excited to be working to get our customers exposed in that area. Moving on to slide five, to sum up some of the things that we went over today. I would reiterate that the quarter's results were a direct reflection of our strategy to uniquely position Williams to connect the very best natural gas supplies to the very best markets, and I really think it's hard for anybody else to make that claim in terms of how we're positioned in the natural gas market there. Very unique in that regard and we've worked hard to get there. The fact that we're delivering record quarterly DCF and record adjusted EBITDA through some of the tough headwinds for the industry is a real testament to the teams at Williams that are out there every day executing on our plan, working hard to deliver results for our shareholders. And we remain very focused on executing against our natural gas focused strategy and are very pleased with the results we've delivered here in the third quarter. And importantly, our backlog of projects continues to grow as we see the demand side of the natural gas story continue to develop. Sustainable low-cost reserves only serve to fuel the story of demand growth and we're excited to be a part of what will be a tremendous growth of the future. So with that, we'll move to the Q&A session. And I'd just like to remind everyone that the purpose of today's call is to discuss our operational and financial results for the third quarter of 2015, and I ask that you please limit your questions to these topics. And I want to thank you in advance for your understanding and cooperation on this. I know there's a lot of interest in understanding the transaction, but we're going to be limiting our comments today to the Williams operations and our performance here for the third quarter and drivers for the future. So with that, we'll turn it over to questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Brandon Blossman of Tudor, Pickering, Holt Company (sic) [Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.] (26:49) Please go ahead.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, Alan; everyone.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Let's see here. There is quite a bit. I guess just a little bit of bookkeeping; in terms of project timing in the Northeast, any incremental color on Constitution and getting that kicked off?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. We've gotten through all the work with DEQ with New York and that was kind of our final barrier up there. We are working with the Governor's Office to understand what – the cause of delay of getting that permit out, but that is kind of the final issue that we're waiting on. And so we're working to understand that. A lot of great work going on by the teams there to get the – past the requirement for the New York DEC (27:46), but we think we've gotten there. So really just up against getting the Governor's Office to sign off on that and then we'll be in a position to get that done for the fourth quarter of 2016.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
And so still on track for that timeline?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
The new Edmonton PDH facility, any color in terms of just how competitive that market is? Obviously, that's a much needed project in that region. Are there other folks competing for similar projects there? And just across your footprint, do other PDH units make sense, and what's the competitive landscape for those types of projects?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Great question. Well, I'd tell you that, that PDH project is very, very unique from our perspective, and that it's taking advantage of very low-cost propylene that's already in the area as well as the propylene that we would make with the new PDH facility. And so we, for quite some time, wanted to see polypropylene unit and downstream derivatives be developed in the area, because it's just a logistics game. So today a lot of that propylene is going into the Gulf Coast being converted into various derivatives, in particularly polypropylene, and then being railed back up into the Midwest market. And so this project takes advantage of that low-cost propane there in the basin and low-cost propylene that comes directly off of those big delayed cokers in the oil sands and then just transports it in directly into those Midwest markets and also will have access to international market out of places like Port of Vancouver. So really excited to be teamed up with the Goradia Capital Group and a huge marketer of derivative projects – derivative products around the world, and really excited to have them as a partner there. And I would tell you, the next available project to us is clearly a PDH 2 facility there and they're very interested in that and we certainly have plenty of product, as we continue to expand our upstreams oil sands operations, we've got a lot of propylene that we want to find a better home for than having to be railed into the Gulf Coast. So I would just tell you it really is a logistics play for us. We're not depending on the kind of propane basis differential that we've been living on up there, but we do expect the propane to be long there in Canada for quite some time and we really look to all kinds of alternatives for other uses of the propane and other logistics for the propane and really excited PDH is a great answer up there, especially with somebody coming – partnering with us to develop the derivative business for us. So exciting opportunity, not just for us, but really for the province of Alberta and allows them to take advantage of their very low-cost resources in that basin as well.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Awesome. Got it. Thank you. Very interesting.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you very much. (31:17)
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Christine Cho of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
My first question has to do with CapEx; year-to-date, it's been trending a lot lower than the guidance we got five months ago. And I'm guessing most of it is due to lower than expected spending in the Northeast and for the Access assets. Is the run rate of spending that we've seen for the first three quarters a good indicator for what to expect in fourth quarter? And how much of the spending would you say has been delayed? And is this more of a timing thing into 2016? Or is some of this stuff indefinitely postponed until pricing signals improve, like you've mentioned?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Christine, I would actually say – I'll separate that. The maintenance capital piece, a number of drivers on that, but we still have a lot of maintenance capital work out in front of us. And just so you know kind of how we forecast that, a lot of that maintenance capital is invested in the inspection and improvement of our pipeline system. And so we go through the smart pigging process and we basically have to estimate the number of repairs or anomalies that we'll find when we do that inspection; and so that's how we do that. When we don't have as many anomalies show up or as many repairs required, then we don't have as much maintenance capital to spend. And so we still have quite a bit of inspection in front of us for the balance of the year and we would expect that maintenance capital continue to be pretty strong going into the fourth quarter. But clearly, it's a matter of us estimating at the first of the year (33:07) the amount of work we think we're going to have. And when we don't find those anomalies, then that's the money that we put back in our pocket, so to speak. But we have a lot of work out in front of us for both the third quarter and – sorry, into the fourth quarter and into 2016. On the growth capital side, that is somewhat driven by things like we would have hoped to have been started on Constitution by now, for instance. And so that is projects like that. But there are a lot of projects that we actually are seeing lower costs come in. And so, up in the Northeast, for instance, on our build-out in the Susquehanna County area, the capital – the team has been doing a great job up there, bringing in costs lower and as well on Atlantic Sunrise; we've continued to enjoy cost savings on that big project as well. So I would say the delay component is probably -that's built in there, is probably Constitution, and but there are some pretty substantial savings that are coming through in our numbers as well.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, great. And then on the heels of that, it looks like you funded all the CapEx with debt in third quarter. I'm assuming you couldn't really tap the ATM PZ (34:24) while undergoing a strategic review, but how should we think about CapEx funding between now and closing of the deal at the parent? I realize that IDR waivers are going to help some, but can you tap the ATM markets given the uncertainty around the future of PZ (34:37)? And even if you could, I'm assuming you don't want to when the units are yielding 11% and credit metrics are high. So how should we think about this? Because I would think that you can't solely lean on the balance sheet for the next six months to nine months.
Donald R. Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Christine, this is Don. Good morning.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Morning.
Donald R. Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
First, I'd say that I think the cost of equity capital is unusually high as a result of the high level of uncertainty regarding the energy industry right now. We expect that that will settle down, and in time here that the market will certainly reward the advantaged companies relative to those that are less advantaged or disadvantaged and cost of capital will make more sense as we move forward. We have a variety of options ahead of us, and the ATM is certainly one of those and we'll be balancing obviously cost and risk and – with a combination of debt and equity to finance and keep WPZ at investment grade ratings.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Can you go into further detail about alternatives to the ATM?
Donald R. Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Christine, I think the alternatives we have are probably the same as most of the other industry participants. So I'm not going to delve into the variety of options because there are many, but I would say there are a number of options, and we'll evaluate all of those in an effort to find the lowest-cost solution while balancing risk and maintaining those ratings. And again, I would say that obviously WPZ has a supportive parent as well.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Last question from me, can you quantify how much gas was shut in in the Northeast for third quarter and for how long? And then, also, Alan, you mentioned that there is a lot of wells waiting on completion. Can you quantify that behind your acreage as well?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we're certainly not going to pinpoint anything for – which producers and so forth on that, but Jim Scheel, if you'll take that question generally?
James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P:
Sure. For the third quarter in the, what I'd call the dry Northeast, we had a significant amount of volume shut in in the Bradford and Susquehanna Counties. We probably had about 350 million a day in Susquehanna and upwards of 400 million a day in Bradford, so pretty significant for the quarter shut-ins. Again, these are all price-related shut-ins. As you look at the OVM area or the Ohio River Supply Hub, we had about 150 shut-ins starting the middle of the quarter. We'll see that as we look at our reduced volume growth year-over-year in that particular area. And then, we saw shut-ins also of about 300 million in the Utica, those have come off. Those are – we are now flowing at full rate. In fact, this weekend we had a Bcf production at the Utica Supply Hub for the first time. So right now we have about 900 million shut-ins. As Alan indicated at the very beginning of the presentation, there's a number of other opportunities for us to grow volume besides the shut-in volumes including uncompleted wells, and that's true both in the Northeast portion of the Utica as well as – I mean, the Marcellus as well as the wet Marcellus in the South. Those give us a great amount of potential for future volumes. And as we look at our rig counts, we see those holding relatively steady as we go from 2015 to 2016, probably actually seeing a – although it'll probably stay at 15, it could go up by a couple of rigs over the course of that timeframe. Does that answer your question?
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you so much for all the color. Congrats on a good quarter.
James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P:
Thanks.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Donald R. Chappel - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer:
Good morning.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just wanted to follow up on that last point there a little bit if I could. As far as the 900 shut-in that you talked about, is there – do you have any visibility to that coming back online as far as, is there certain price points or other kind of regional de-bottlenecks you think that could help get that flowing, or any color there would be great?
James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P:
Alan, would you like me to take that one?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Please, Jim. Thank you.
James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast G&P:
All right. Sure. Obviously, we've talked about Henry Hub pricing and the basis differential, as I think you're aware. The basis differentials from the Northeast to market pricing have been significant. Many of our producers have been seeing realized prices in the $0.70 price range and that is pretty significant. But we have a number of opportunities, those of you remember at Analyst Day, perhaps, there are a number of projects including Constitution, Atlantic Sunrise which we're driving that are going to help bring the critical infrastructure we need to really unlock the value of these resources for our producers. In addition to that, you've got (40:19). You've got Leach. You've got Mountaineer. There are a number of industry solutions coming as we look forward into 2016 and 2017 that will help narrow those basis differentials and really unlock value for our producers in order to not only relieve the shut-in gas, but also really drive up the production rates. I think as we see that come on – we've already seen the Leidy expansion which is half a Bcf a day of incremental production coming on line that will help alleviate some of that as we go forward. But I – although we're not giving guidance as it relates to future year volume growth, I would just say, as we see that basis differential come down we're – if our producers saw the $2 pricing, we would see just tremendous volume growth in the Northeast. And then, finally, we need to look at winter pricing and weather-related issues as we go into the winter of this year, could also help improve some of those differentials and increase our Northeast volumes.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks for that. So it sounds like some of these takeaway solutions, probably, at least a few quarters off, if not a big longer, so takeaway won't necessarily help in the near-term, but if weather can improve that basis that could potentially be more of a near-term catalyst to help you guys out there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I would just add to that. Thank you for the question. I would just add to that, certainly, as Jim mentioned, in the near-term, we have the Leidy Southeast, that's 525 million a day. So that's pretty substantial. Because a lot of that Northeast volume is gathered by our system, we should expect to see some of that relief parlayed (42:17) directly to our gathering assets up there. As well, I would just say, as you mentioned, we are in a fairly warm shoulder here and certainly in the cold – not just for the sake of gas prices in the Northeast, but as well for NGL prices and particularly propane, we'll see some relief during the winter like we always do as that propane is called on to deliver local markets rather than it being transported from the South, the way it used to be.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks for that. And then just looking at Atlantic-Gulf. It was quite a nice quarter all take (42:56). And I was just curious were there any kind of weather or one-time benefits that helped with the quarter there? Or did the quarter really perform in line with your budget and this is kind of a new run rate to think about there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I'll take it. I don't know if we have Rory on line, he may want to provide some more detail, but – no, it really was just a matter of these big projects really starting to mount up and it really was a matter of having a full quarter. There really wasn't any seasonal issues. In fact, volumes on Transco on a, just a throughput basis were actually a little bit lighter and that's just based on moderate weather relative to last year's moderate weather. And remember, we don't really make the – Transco doesn't get driven up/down (43:43) all that much by seasonal just because all the capacity is sold out firm and so it really doesn't move with throughput (43:53). But the answer to your question is, no, there was nothing seasonal about it, it's just these big projects are starting to pile up (43:59).
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks. That's it from me. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning. Congratulations on a nice quarter.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning. Thank you.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good to be above one times coverage.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. It is.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
So on Christine's CapEx question, Alan, you referenced some cost savings in Susquehanna and at Atlantic Sunrise, and I'm just wondering is the bulk of that kind of project-specific with good execution or just across the board are we starting to see industry-wide material and labor cost deflation?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would say in the case of the Susquehanna Supply Hub, a couple of things
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Okay, great. And where is the current state of Geismar utilization?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
John Dearborn, you want to take that please?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Sure. I'd be glad to, Alan. Thanks. And Craig here is where we are. You'll notice in our results we're reporting that Geismar's running at – we sold about 404 million pounds this quarter. I'll remind you that that's WPZ's share of Geismar, so Geismar actually sold more closer to – or produced closer to 450 million pounds, between 450 million pounds and 460 million pounds in this quarter. We have been running a bit of propane as a feedstock as we bring the plant back into operation. And so there's about another 18 million pounds of propylene that we've been producing there. Net-net, when you add all that up and make some adjustments and simplifying assumptions, so you can calculate a utilization rate we, over the quarter, ran about an average of 98%. But let me take you a little further on that. We're extraordinarily pleased with the Geismar team, the Geismar family there, because they have been setting production records that are yet in excess of that and we have a bit of upside yet to be found in that. We have two transformers that are yet scheduled to be replaced in next year that could help the team to further hone or find some increments. So I would say setting the expectation, we have a little bit of upside yet on volume out of Geismar, but it's running extraordinarily well here during this quarter and we're really grateful of the team and all the efforts they put into restoring the safe and reliable operations of that unit.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
That's great, John. I know it's been a long road there and it's terrific to hear such a good quarter in terms of execution.
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Appreciate your comments. Thank you.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Last question is the PDH project, still somewhere in the neighborhood of perhaps $1 billion investment or almost then – picking up on the answer to Brandon's question, is there any thought about the gap in timing that could be for a second PDH project after the first one is online?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I'll go ahead and take that real quickly. As to the costs, we're not going to disclose that until we go for our FID on that. And so really good work done by fine-tuning our estimates. And we do think it's a good time to be building up there, but we've certainly looked around the industry and seen what's going on on several of the other PDH projects and have been careful to take note of that as we continue to refine our estimates up there. So I would say that we've had kind of two things. On one hand we've been taking note of some of the project cost across the industry on that; and on the other hand, we are seeing favorable conditions in Alberta, but we really don't want to book that, if you will, into our estimate, and are hopeful that will provide some upside on our costs there. So big investment and we'll be providing – we're not going to be providing that number just yet until we get to the FID report, at least further along. On the gap in timing for PDH 2, really good question. That's a difficult issue, because you don't want to change scope in the middle of your project. I would tell you we have done a lot to make sure that when we do put in the PDH 2 or if we get to that decision that we've got all the space and auxiliary and the planning both on the propylene side and on the polypropylene side thought through, so I would just say we're making investment thinking about the future for PDH 2. And we do think the returns for PDH 2 project would be very attractive, but we're really just trying to keep our focus tightly on the scope of PDH 1 to start with. So I'd just say we're not ready to bring forth a PDH 2 decision just yet, but we are planning for the future.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Understood. Congratulations again on the quarter.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Darren Horowitz of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Alan, just one quick question for you. I realize you're still evaluating like you said that scope of PDH 1, but as we're trying to put some numbers around the profitability of the volume commitments that you announced in addition to obviously the low feedstock cost, is the biggest influence at arbitrage (51:44) between the level of currently produced refinery-grade propylene and where you see the demand growth for PGP and the derivatives? And that's the big driver? Or as we start to model this, do you see maybe the domestic PGP and derivatives demand significantly increasing, or maybe more margin opportunity like you said for international export? I'm just trying to figure out the drivers as to how we should think about the profitability of this plant and possibly PDH 2 over the next couple of years?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Good question. I would say really the party that will be having the lion's share of that exposure obviously would be our partner who would be in the business of marketing that product, polypropylene product, and certainly that's their expertise. And I think they're really excited about the markets they think this very low-cost supply can get into. From our vantage point, we're going to be very focused on producing propylene at a low cost and into that contract that is a fee-based contract. And so that's what we're going to be very focused on. And while we do have some exposure to the profitability over the time of that, primarily our focus is going to be on just driving volumes at a low cost and selling them to a fee-based contract.
Darren C. Horowitz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Ted Durbin of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Ted J. Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. I would love to ask about the Appalachian Connector project. You mentioned the fact that producers are really interested in getting their gas uptown and it seems like a good solution, but there are some competing projects that look like they're along the same lines there. So just wondering if you – what the discussions are with producers, their willingness to commit to volumes, any range of sort of CapEx or return you might expect on a project like that?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would just say we've been looking at a number of alternatives on that project. The thing that we – the two drivers, I would tell you is, this continued demand for natural gas in the Southeast and power generation markets and Transco being so uniquely positioned to be able to expand cheaply out of Station 165 to the South. And so that's a huge carrot, if you will, that we have uniquely available to us and we're using that to bring forward the very best project for the market. So I would just say it's pretty fluid, but that's a very – almost immovable opportunity, if you will, that is uniquely ours and provides us an ability to enter into the very best project but we want to make sure we can maximize that value after all the other investments have been made. So that's the first piece of that. Second piece of that, I would say, is that the kind of volumes that we're seeing from the dry Utica are just continuing to impress us and some tremendous volumes up there that we think are going to – cost is going to continue to lower on, and those are the drivers. So I would just say, we think the need for this project will be out there and we think we've got some unique positions that allow us to maximize the profitability when we do decide to invest in that project.
Ted J. Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you for that. And then a little more housekeeping here, but the – now, that we have Geismar up and running, the operating costs in the NGL & Petchem Services, is this sort of a good run rate that we saw in the quarter; or is there any other puts and takes there as we think about it going forward?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
John, you want to take that please?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Glad to do that. Great question and thanks for it, Ted. I guess the run rate, if I thought about the earnings in the absence of any commodity price volatility, the earnings would be a reasonable run rate to look at for the business coming through this quarter. As I think Alan mentioned, Geismar is contributing. NGL services had a reasonably good quarter for NGL services in Canada with its commodity exposure, was probably third on the list there. As you're looking at the costs, we may have experienced some costs in this quarter that are just slightly higher than we would have expected for particularly the Geismar unit, but that would be on the order of just a few million dollars, so I wouldn't expect the costs to be hugely different going forward as the run rate goes, Ted. Hope that answers your question.
Ted J. Durbin - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Perfect. That's it from me. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Ted.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Becca Followill of U.S. Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Becca.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
(57:17) on the Chesapeake recent negotiation on the Haynesville MVCs, can you talk about what happens in a low gas price environment? Do they have an option for an outpay (57:26) or do they need to continue to drill into that agreement?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you. I don't want to be too specific, but, first of all, for 2016 and 2017, as we mentioned earlier, our cash flow from the MVC has not changed, so there really is no change on that. And relative to the obligation to drill, that is a firm obligation and there isn't any out for pricing (57:51).
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
And then post 2017?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Well 2017, that's when those MVCs ended naturally under the contract, so (58:03).
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Okay.
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
And the design of the drilling obligation was to ensure that the volumes as the 2017 period ended were at a relatively high level.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So that really was really great trade for both of us on that. We allowed them to bring – combine those fields and allow them to put the best economics to work on their capital, but in exchange to that we both got a longer-term and better expectations for volumes and growth (58:39) in the future. So really (58:40) to find a winner and a loser on that, but I would just tell you from my vantage point, and believe me we've studied it hard that really, really is a win-win. And it only makes sense that there is, because when you're forcing people to make uneconomic capital decisions and you allow them to make better capital decisions you improve the lot (59:00) for both parties.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you. And then can you talk about discussions with them? Are discussions continuing to maybe renegotiate some other of these contracts?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
I would just say that we're – we think those were the bulk of the opportunities, but we'll continue to look for opportunities if there are growth opportunities. And so always, always happy to work with them, great relationship developed there, and we're very, very thankful to have them as a customer. We think they're a great operator and have been very fair to work with. So we'll continue to look for opportunities, but we don't have anything immediately to offer on.
Becca Followill - USCA Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Christopher Sighinolfi of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, Alan. How are you?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning. How are you?
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
I'm great. Thanks for all the color this morning. A lot of it's been a hit already, but just maybe two questions from me. The Gulf Connector project, looks like the proposed capacity there came down quite a bit from where you were before. Just wondering on any color you could offer on that project, either costing-wise or counterparty-wise your thoughts on initial versus maybe future expansion opportunities on the side then (01:00:23)?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Sure. Thanks for the question. Rory, would you take that question please?
Rory Lee Miller - Senior Vice President, Atlantic – Gulf Operating Area:
Sure. Yeah. Good eye there, Christopher. Those numbers did change a little bit quarter-to-quarter. When we initially had that open season we had requests for much more capacity than we could handle, so we moved forward with two parties, and one of those parties has stepped out and decided that they are not going to pursue signing the agreements and making the commitment. So we've reduced the size of the project. Now, that's kind of the bad news. The good news is, some of those – one of the other players that wanted to get in, but couldn't is now going to have an opportunity to come into the project. So the project is going to be a bit smaller but the returns actually go up on the project. So we still think it's a very high quality project and one we're excited about pursuing. And kind of as you hinted out in your question, that does leave us some additional capacity that we have to work with for new opportunities that we think are going to be out there.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Thanks. Thanks for the color on that. I guess switching gears and this is just my second question. Alan, really appreciate the update on shut-ins in the Northeast and your volumetric projections and thoughts around that there. Was curious if we pivot to the West performance, at least as we were thinking about it, it was pretty solid mostly on the pricing front this quarter. Just wondering how you're thinking about producer activities out there; potential volume movements as we move into 2016 out there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Sure. I'd just say that the producers just continue to find ways to bring in additional production out there as well with very, very few rigs running. But continue to find ways to do that, and as well are being very efficient with that. We are seeing some things that are pretty interesting out there in terms of new development. But I think our hope for that right now is to just – in the current pricing environment is to keep driving our unit costs low and keep the volumes as flat as possible, is kind of our expectation. The good news about the West relative to what we're seeing in the East is that, there's plenty of takeaway capacity, plenty of infrastructure, the gathering and processing costs are relatively low because it's older infrastructure that was built in a different pricing era. And so the variable cost or the cash cost to the producer to produce is relatively low. So we really just haven't – and we've seen very – we've seen a very small almost insignificant amount of ice-related shut-in, just like we would in any winter or shoulder month in the West. But overall, it's a very low cost place for variable production. And so we really don't expect a whole lot of change out there. So lots of reserves, lots of known reserves, and I think if we do see a price signal producers are ready to jump on it, but we're not expecting anything dramatic out of the area. And really proud of the team for working hard to keep our cash flows as steady as they have, considering how low NGL margins have been out (01:04:02).
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks a lot, Alan. Thanks for your color this morning. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Sharon Lui of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Just wanted to, I guess, get your thoughts in terms of the pace of additional capital spending for gathering and processing assets in the Northeast, given the current environment? Specifically, maybe if you can talk about, I guess, the investments tied to the Utica with Chesapeake and how you see maybe that $600 million of capital ramp up over the years?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Great question. I would just say that we're really excited about that acreage dedication and think that once the infrastructure demand, or – sorry, the infrastructure constraints are lifted out there and the firm obligations that various customers have out there, they'll be working to take advantage of that firm capacity that they have, and so feel pretty good about the prospects of that. But I also would say that the way we're structured on that, we're not obligated to go spend that money out in front of the production showing up, and so we have an ability to step into that. So we're not going to be out spending capital in front of that drilling from a risk standpoint. But we do think that's a very, very good acreage, some really impressive cost levels available to it. And so we're really excited. We've got a very good vantage point of what people's production versus cost levels are. We're very excited about that acreage.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our last question comes from John Edwards of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Bhavesh M. Lodaya - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning. This is Bhavesh instead of John on. So most of my questions are answered. Just a question on Geismar. Given where ethylene prices are, curious to know your views on prices going ahead for the next maybe few quarters and whether there are any opportunities to maybe have any fee-based contracts against (01:06:28)?
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
John, you want to take that please?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Sure. Glad to take it and thanks for the question. Yeah. First of all, we're really pleased to be serving customers again back in Louisiana. It just so happened that as we brought Geismar back on, so did Evangeline come on, and so the market was well served. And I think looking back over our shoulder here, in the last quarter, the ethylene market was well served by production in that there were very few shutdowns or unexpected shutdowns. And I think in at least one of the months – say it was July, we saw industry-high production. So I think all of that lead to perhaps a bit of an oversupply or a slightly long market in ethylene and the necessary price adjustments that occurred during the quarter. I'll note, though, that over the last weeks, two weeks notionally, we recovered some of that price. It's come back up probably on the order of about $0.05 at this point. And so just to take the conversation a little further forward to answer your question, finally, as we look forward and we look into, we call it, the second quarter of next year, a couple of factors that'll play positively is a very high turnaround season. And I think another factor that will play positively is relatively low inventories of ethylene by any public accounting. So I'm certain that people are doing exchanges to fill their needs in next year, but low inventories and high shutdown rates, planned shutdown rates certainly bode well for the supply/demand balance, I think, in our favor. I hope that brings the necessary coloring; that's the way we see things playing out here over the next couple of quarters.
Bhavesh M. Lodaya - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Sure. And are there any opportunities to tie in contracts, pricing-based contracts, on these?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, The Williams Cos., Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. Forgot to mention on that. We're always in the marketplace looking to secure the best value for our ethylene out there and we have been in conversations in past – I'll say, past quarters, including this last quarter, and we continue to have conversations with customers over whether or not they desire to enter into any sort of contracts, all in, including fee-for-service contracts and so trying to lock in some of the margins into the future. Of course, in this dynamic price environment, everyone sits across the table with kind of rubber guns pointed at each other, and we'll see where those negotiations go over time. But we're always looking, when it would appear to be favorable to us, to lock up solid volumes and solid margins on Geismar 1.
Bhavesh M. Lodaya - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Great. Thank you. And thanks, Alan, and congrats on a great quarter.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you very much. Appreciate that.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.
Alan S. Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, great. Well, thank you everybody for joining us this morning. We really appreciate the interest and appreciate you respecting the scope of our discussion this morning as well. So thank you for that. Also just want to say big thanks to the team here at Williams, great execution, and just a lot of great focus on delivering a strategy that we had before us, and appreciate all their attention to focus despite the many distractions that we've had. So with that, thanks again for joining us this morning and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. You may now disconnect your line and have a great day.
Executives:
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast Gathering & Processing John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President
Analysts:
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams and Williams Partners' Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John D. Porter - Head-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Julia. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website, williams.com. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions. And we also have the five leaders of Williams' operating areas with us. Walter Bennett leads the West; John Dearborn leads NGL and Petchem Services; Rory Miller leads Atlantic-Gulf; Bob Purgason leads Access Midstream; and Jim Scheel leads Northeast G&P. In our presentation materials, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we reconciled to General Accepted Accounting Principles. Those reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the presentation materials. So with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Great. Thank you, John and thanks everybody for being on the call this morning. We've got a lot of things to cover today, but before we discussed the second quarter results, I'd like to briefly comment on the WMB Board Strategic Alternatives process that's underway. And as you'll recall, Williams announced on June 21 that it planned to explore a range of strategic alternatives that could include among other things, a merger, a sales of Williams or continuing to pursue the company's existing operating and growth plan. A robust competitive process, we believe, is the best way to get the best options on the table and to maximize shareholder value and the board's review is meant to accomplish just that. The process is underway and we're pleased with the progress to-date. As I'm sure you'll understand we do not intend to comment further on this thorough review of these alternatives before the WPZ transaction today and we won't be commenting further on that until the process is completed and a more definitive course of action is determined by the board. In the meantime and I can assure you that our focus remains on maximizing value and we continue to act in the best interests of our shareholders as we through this process. And so, with that, let's move on to the first slide and talk about the tremendous growth that we enjoyed in the second quarter and a strong trajectory of growth in front of us. So look here on slide two, the package, here in the second quarter, certainly, demonstrates the benefits from our clearly defined strategy of capitalizing on the significant natural gas market growth by connecting the very best supplies to the best markets. We've been on this strategy for quite some time and is really starting to deliver a lot of significant growth, particularly in our fee-based revenues. For this quarter, WMB's adjusted EBITDA was $1.02 billion, up 32% versus second quarter of 2014 and at WPZ, we had a record distributable cash flow of $701 million and delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $1.01 billion, which was driven by fee-based revenue growth. Overall, we had solid performance from four of our five segments, and the performance was delivered despite the fact that volumes were lower in some areas, as a result of price related shut-ins and also because we are operating in a historically low commodity price environment. So when we say lower, just we mean lower than they could have been. We actually had very significant growth in lot of those areas, but certainly, significant impact from volumes being shut in from gas prices. So let me walk through some of the numbers here. First of all, in the Atlantic-Gulf, really the strong performance from Atlantic-Gulf, $389 million in adjusted EBITDA and this was up 44% on fee-based revenues from new projects. And this group really is managing a tremendous amount of growth, and just keeps on delivering this growth in a very safe and reliable manner, so couldn't be prouder of all the great work going on there. At Access, $345 million, up 25% on fee-based revenue growth, and I have to say that certainly we're pleased with the contributions being made from this acquisition, and it's not just the predictable growing cash flows that we all expected, but I would tell you, probably, the piece that's been most impressive from my perspective is the great injection of new talent and ideas that are coming from our new fellow Williams' employees that came from this acquisition. So integration and the synergies are going even a little better than expected there and we continue to see great opportunities out in front of us, as we take in a lot of the ideas and we merge the entities, particularly seeing a lot of opportunity up in the Northeast and we're really starting to get into some of the synergies within our operational excellence and E&C areas as well. In the Northeast G&P, this is $92 million, up 21% and impressively on 54% higher Ohio Valley Midstream gathering volumes, so really starting to see that come through and noted that the team had a record volume there just this week, and really pushing out some big numbers there, as those volumes start to come in and I'll let Jim Scheel address that later. In the Northeast, in general, I would say that as the face of the energy in the U.S. has changed over the past years and where it's coming from, we have certainly worked very hard to get ourselves into a position to unlock the tremendous value of the Marcellus and the Utica areas like never before. And we have put ourselves in a position and we are the leading gathering systems in the Northeast. And we believe our shareholders are going to see great long term value from this tremendous position that we've been able to accumulate in the Marcellus and Utica position. On to the West, EBITDA was $150 million, and this was down 27%. But as we mentioned, this really was driven by lower NGL margins and so that really was the big story out there. But I will tell you, from an operational standpoint, continuing to see great performance there on both reliability of our operations out there and the safety of our operations out there. And in fact, in the quarter, our gathering volumes were flat really as compared to the prior quarter and as the year-over-year quarterly comparison and our equity gallons, so the gallons that we take for our account, and our plant inlet volumes were both higher on a year-over-year comparison. So West continues to hold its own, but certainly impacted by lower prices there in the second quarter. And then in the NGL and Petchem space, the adjusted EBITDA was just $33 million and that number is certainly lower than last year due to the absence of the business interruption proceeds that we reported in the second quarter of 2014. And the near zero prices for propane that we saw in the Edmonton spot prices from our Canadian operations. But this, of course, was a little bit offset by the Geismar, as Geismar began to ramp up here in the second quarter. But really that was probably the disappointment from my perspective, for the quarter, was not getting Geismar up as soon as we would have liked to, and we did have some very serious electrical power problems on the feed into the plant and we've gotten that behind us now, but it has certainly hampered our operations there in the second quarter. So once again, I want to reiterate the overall growth our teams are delivering, and we've begun to enjoy the fruits of our labor as we manage the tremendous growth that we really have thought very hard to win on our Transco system in the deepwater, and certainly, in the Northeast G&P, and we expect big improvement now in our NGL and Petchem services group for the balance of 2015, with Geismar now online and Horizon coming on towards the very end of 2015. Moving on to the next slide here – sorry I'm going back to – stay back on the slide sorry. When you look at our results this quarter, you'll see that our fee-based revenue growth really is coming through in a big way and pretty powerful the way it overpowered lower commodity prices in the quarter. And I think that's really important that we are executing on that strategy in a big way of shifting our business to fee-based revenues and this quarter is an example of where that really pushed through what was some really strong headwinds on the commodity price this quarter. And in fact, at WPZ, our fee-based revenues were up $537 million or 72%, and while a lot of that was driven by the Access acquisition, a lot of this came through our major projects that we're ramping up. And so, if you look at just the WPZ historic assets, our fee-based revenues were up 17%. And this doesn't include fee-based revenues from things like our proportional JVs. So for assets like Discovery, which of course got a big boost from the Keathley Canyon project coming on and our UEO investment in the Utica, big improvements in fee-based revenues there, but given the way we account for that, that does not show up in that $130 million of incremental fee-based revenues. On the NGL margin side, we certainly experienced some serious headwinds and our NGL margins were down $56 million here for the second quarter of 2015. In fact, we only recorded $38 million of NGL margins for the quarter, and it's been a long, long time since we had that low a report for NGL margins. The Geismar plant, just to mention what's going on there, did ramp up in the second quarter. And albeit that was slower than we expected, but it is now online and consistently operating at or near its full production capacity and we expect significant contributions from the plant here in the second half of the year, as I mentioned earlier. On a personal note, I'd just like to recognize that that leadership team there at Geismar has been through a lot. And I want to recognize the fact they have really kept their eyes on getting that plant back up in a safe manner, and they continue to hit some really impressive safety records there, despite a tremendous amount of activity going on at the plant there. And I can't tell you how hard that team has worked to get the plant back up and running safely and I'm very appreciative of their efforts. And so, let's move on to guidance. First of all, we are reaffirming our Williams dividend guidance for 2015 through 2020. And I would point out that the guidance that we've provided is based on an assumption of the completion of the acquisition of the Williams Partners public units by Williams. We are also reaffirming our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2016 through 2018, although we are lowering the 2015 adjusted EBITDA midpoint guidance that we issued in February by about 6%. And of course, this reflects the lower commodity prices that are showing in the market right now for the balance of the year, and as well the problems that we had at Geismar and the ramp-up in the second quarter. So the Geismar impact of that is really already in our second quarter, and the balance of that lowering is coming through commodity prices for the balance of the year. We also are reaffirming our dividend of $0.64 per share in third quarter of 2015, or $2.56 annualized, and also our dividend of $2.85 in 2016 with 10% to 15% annual dividend growth coming through 2020. And so, on to the last point on this slide, certainly, a tremendous amount of growth continues to come at us. And I want to say that we're very excited about how the major projects that are now contributing on the fee-based revenue side are really starting to drive our business and also a lot of projects that are on our list right now that will continue to build the stream of growing cash flows for years to come. Now, moving on to the next slide here and this is slide four. First of all, the projects that are beginning to contribute. We said back in the first quarter at our Analyst Day in May that the demand side of the natural gas market is driving our project list and we are really reinforcing that here again today. And as we look at some of the significant projects that we put into service here in the second quarter, it's easy to see that we've really been executing and delivering on these projects. And here, as you look at the second quarter, for example, on our Transco system, you can see here we delivered three very important projects in the quarter
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question today comes from Brandon Blossman of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Unknown Speaker:
Good morning.
Unknown Speaker:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Actually, a big picture question first up. Alan, you suggested that the backlog is actually growing, no change to the official guidance. What – just kind of qualitatively, when would we or should we expect some updates there and is it just as things come to fruition or is it more of a quarterly type event?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. I would say there's really two things you should see moving there. One is that many of the projects that are in our potential backlog so that are in that $30-plus billion, some of those projects will start to be moving in to guidance as we close deals there. So a lot of big opportunity right now, particularly in the Northeast, and as well as Transco continues to be very successful in contracting for new business along its system. And so, you'll start to see some business migrate from that $30-plus billion into the guidance numbers. So in terms of timing, we'll just update that in that particular case, as those deals are closed. Secondly, on the potential bucket, I would just tell you we just – the demand side of our business is really picking up in a big way and we're extremely well-positioned to capture a lot of that. And so, we are seeing a lot of additional interest in that, and we just obviously don't update that every single quarter. On the potential side, for one reason, it's so large already, it's not going to drive all that much, but as we see significant projects move in there, we're beginning to expand that. But I think the first thing you should expect to see in the near-term is projects in the guidance side starting to build.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That's actually very helpful. And then, somewhat related, you mentioned Access operational synergies kind of showing up here recently. Is there anything – any detail that you can provide around that or any specific synergies that you want to highlight?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Sure. Thank you for that question. We had identified that we would have 25 last year upon the acquisition and then 50 on the merger. And right now, we have in our sights a number that's better than 50 here for 2015. And because some of that is being – even though it will show up in 2015, some of that will be full run rate; next year, we'll actually see a larger number than that next year. So a lot of those things are on some of the support services side, but we also are in the process. We've reorganized our leadership in the Northeast under Jim Scheel there and so we're starting to look at that the synergies that are available to us in the Northeast gathering area as well, and those really will be 2016 kind of improvements in synergies, and we're just really starting to identify what that really looks like.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
So stay tuned for the 2016 guidance number on synergies?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yes.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. That's good for me for right now. I'll hand it over.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Okay.
Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Shneur Gershuni of UBS.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning guys. Couple of questions on my front here. I was wondering, first, if we can sort of talk about the MVC exposures at the old Access assets. There's been a lot of discussion about it lately. When you look at your exposures relative to your producer customers, I was wondering if you think of it on a basin-by-basin basis and if there are any regions where it's possible the producer customer has, I guess low to negative IRRs. And I guess that likely is in the case in Northeast, but I was wondering if you could comment if there's any regions where you see some weaknesses where producers are likely to be at or below the MVC should the commodity prices continue to be at the current levels, or possibly get worse?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Let me try to take that and then look a little bit to Bob here. If you are speaking of MVCs outside of the Chesapeake business, for instance, we do have some shut-ins in the Marcellus area. And those contracts are under cost of service. And so that value proposition of that would come back to us when that rate gets adjusted on an annual basis. And so that's I think the best way to think about that relative to the Chesapeake business. The MVCs that exist in the other Northeast, I would say, we're well above those – even at current shut-in production levels, we're well above those. I think the way you should think about that is that the volume support that we really have with that will come when the big pipeline projects come into service and there is known obligations to volumes into those downstream pipelines. So Constitution, Atlantic Sunrise and Leidy Southeast obligations into those projects will drive some support for volumes just because we know what the obligations are into those take or pay obligations on those pipelines.
Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area:
Let me...
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
So...
Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area:
Yeah, I was just going to add the two areas where we've got through MVCs, the Barnett and the Haynesville, obviously, were below the MVC in the Barnett. We do look at them on a basin-by-basin basis. And our view is that drilling in the Haynesville will come under the MVC that's growing in that area. And you're seeing that in the volumes that are showing up. But the Barnett is just not attracting the drill bit right now, and we don't think will be for a while, but it still is producing good cash flow in terms of its lifting cost compared to the current netbacks.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
So just to confirm, the Barnett is not attracting the drill bit, likely negative returns for your producer customers and is that the case also in the Haynesville? And that's why you're saying it's going to probably come under the MVCs at some point?
Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area:
Well, I wouldn't speculate as to Chesapeake's returns in that area in total. I'll just note that the Barnett's producing good free cash flow in almost any environment and that that Haynesville is attracting drill bit currently.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. My follow-up questions, there was a big pickup in ethane volume sales in the Northeast. I was wondering if you can sort of talk about the big shift. Is it something that you did, is rejection suddenly not happening? I was just wondering if you can sort of give us a little bit of color on that.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Sure. One thing we didn't mention was that towards the end of the second quarter, we brought our ethane pipeline up there into service. And so, we now are running our de-ethanizer and that ethane pipeline feeds in to the – some of the contracts where producers have to sell their ethane. And so that is what's driving that. So now, we're getting incremental fees for those ethane services that we wouldn't have been getting until that pipeline and the de-ethanizer replacement service.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Final question. I realize you can't talk about the strategic review process and so forth. I was just wondering if you'd confirm whether a data room is currently open or not.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
We're not going to talk about that, Shneur. We're just going to have to hold a very, very firm line on this (32:42) answer your questions on.
Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. No problem. Thank you very much, guys. I appreciate the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just for the strategic process, I appreciate you might not be able to say anything here, but I wanted to bounce a couple of thoughts. Is there anything you can share with us as far as what the timeline might be there? And also, you talked about some smaller bolt-on acquisitions. Does this process interfere with any larger M&A aspirations you might have?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I'll take the second question just to say that it is business, as usual, in terms of our bolt-on M&A efforts. And so, we continue to execute on our plan and our strategy in that regard.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then, in the Northeast, it looks like gathering volumes were down a little bit quarter-over-quarter, but processing was up. I was just wondering if you could share a bit more with us in terms of what you hear with regard to producer customer activity there in the back half of the year, and how you guys are thinking about volumes at this point?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Sure. I'll just take that real quickly and then if you've got some more detail, Jim Scheel can chime in. Really, the only impact, the gathering volumes and production available is actually growing pretty rapidly. And as you saw, the big increase we had in OVM volumes with a 54% increase in gathering volumes in the Ohio Valley area. But the real impact was from shut-ins, particularly from producers up in the Susquehanna County area and some very substantial shut-ins that are due to lack of infrastructure availability. So we hear the term gas price there, but in fact, it really – the problem isn't the gas prices. They were enjoying $270 gas price up there. They would be pulling everything they could, but in fact, with all the constraints and lack of takeaway infrastructure right now, they're not getting that kind of pricing level and so some of those big producers start to bid against themselves as they put additional supplies into the market and so they're taking actions to curtail that production and so – but in fact continue to develop the reserves, and are making ready for when these big pipeline projects like Leidy Southeast, Constitution and Atlantic Sunrise come on up there. And so there are some big volumes and big gas purchase contracts that will stand behind those, and so they're readying their availability to deliver against those obligations. And so it's just about that simple. The rest of the business, the Northeast volumes are, in particular, like I said, OVM volumes are doing well and the Utica volumes are doing well as well on the joint venture operations that we have there.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks for that. And...
James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President, Northeast Gathering & Processing:
No, I'm sorry. I think Alan got it, thanks.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Just a follow-up on the Northeast. You'd outlined some of the cost savings that the Access merger had brought into the fold. I was wondering if you might be able to talk a little bit more about the commercial synergies that you might see. And I think during the Analyst Day, you talked about specific hubs there and opportunities related to that. So are there any further thoughts as far as what joint commercial opportunities could occur after the combination?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Sure. A lot happening there. Probably, the most obvious and the easiest to talk about is in the OVM, in the Ohio Valley Midstream area, where Access's North Victory system sits just to the north of our OVM system and extends the reach there. And as well, the ACMP team's capabilities on building out the gathering systems and the modular compression to attract those volumes is well-known by producers in the area. And so we have a really big list of producers that we're working with right now that leverage off of the combination of those existing ACMP systems feeding into OVM, as well as the expansion of those systems into new acreage that's been taken up there. So a lot happening on that front, and it really just boils down there – within OVM, it boils down to the expansion and the reach of our system just got a lot bigger into the OVM processing and fractionation complex. In addition to that, though, I would mention two other things. First of all, the Utica dry is really starting to hit some – people – far exceed especially our expectations, I would say, in terms of the potential of those reserves in production. And we're extremely well-positioned there on capturing the Utica dry business. And so, again, the reach of the Access system that's in the area along with the OVM system is powerful in that regard. And then, finally, the joint ventures between the Blue Racer Midstream business and the UEO system, both are very well-positioned on the Utica, and are enjoying growth there. And of course, we're looking to find ways to combine those systems in a way that really provides a super system for the area. And we think we're extremely well-positioned to bring that about. So a lot happening there that really is the combination of the historic Access assets and the historic Williams assets. And I think when we back up couple of years from now and look at this very impressive coverage of the area, in terms of being able to offer producer services on both Utica dry, the Utica wet, and the Marcellus wet, and particularly where those things cross over. So a lot happening there and we couldn't be more excited about the number of opportunities that are coming at us right now in Jim Scheel's area.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And do you see more opportunities to kind of take advantage of that liquids production, extending your footprint further downstream?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
You know, there's a lot of great projects out there. We are certainly working with our producers who control those liquids to try to find the right opportunities and certainly, are encouraging that infrastructure to get built on the downstream side. And so, I think from our vantage point, we're looking to try to encourage the development of that infrastructure, but it's really our producers' volumes and they'll be the ones that need to speak for the support of those projects.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks. And then just one last one if I could. With regard to Geismar, how close will 3Q 2015 be to a complete full quarter? And is the O&M run rate in 2Q, is that a good run rate for the segment?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Let me have John Dearborn take that.
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
As Alan mentioned, we made about 5.27 million pounds per day on Tuesday. I think that would be a pretty reasonable rate to expect, because we've been able to demonstrate that for reasonably long periods of time, in excess of a week through this past several weeks as we brought the plant into full operation. So we're very encouraged with where we are today. So I think that's a fair way to look going forward. I think the one thing to take into consideration on the O&M numbers is we did face a rather substitute power failure, during the second quarter, which would have seen some higher O&M costs. I'm going to venture to say somewhere in the range of about $6 million to repair furnaces, which were unexpected. Those furnaces – it's a pretty normal thing when you face a significant power outage that you've to go in and repair the furnaces. That's what takes time, and it took some money in the second quarter.
Jeremy B. Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks for all the color.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
So I got one follow-up on Brandon and Jeremy's question in the Northeast and then a couple on commodities. So picking up on the Northeast opportunities, there's been a couple absolutely monster Utica dry gas wells. I think one was just reported this morning, but in the last week a couple really big ones. Is there any way to give a rough range of the potential size of midstream service opportunities in the dry gas area out there?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Great question. And I will tell you that I think the challenge for everybody up there right now is getting the takeaway capacity out of the area. And so, there's no doubt that the potential was there at this point. I don't think anybody that's involved or engaged in the business up there doubts the potential. And especially, in areas where you already have pads established for the Marcellus wet and even some of the Marcellus dry, the underlying Utica under that and the ability to take advantage of the existing pads and existing infrastructure to bring that production on is where we think a lot of that big production will come on when there's an adequate call for it by the market. But as we sit today, the market – the supply side is desperate to see those expansion projects come online on the gas takeaway side to be able to alleviate that. So I think that's really the curtailment, if you will, right now, that will stop that from being – going gangbusters, but it is impressive. In terms of the opportunity for us, we've got a multi-billion dollar opportunities right now that we're looking at in terms of expansion of our systems up there, a lot of which is driven by both the Utica dry and where it overlays with the Marcellus wet. And so, we've got very – we're very far along in negotiations. And as I mentioned earlier, that's really where you ought to start to see our growth come from in terms of our potential projects. Besides the Transco demand side, you also should start to expect some of that business that was in the potential start to move into the guidance, as we start to close up on some of that business that's out there in front of us.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. That's helpful. And then, on the commodities side, a couple of related questions. First, on the $150 million of EBITDA guidance change relating to commodity price deck, can you roughly split that between Geismar olefins and all other and elaborate on what you're seeing as drivers right now for olefins crack spreads into 2016? And are you still seeing or expecting at least a couple cent premium to Belvieu there? And then the final thing on new projects relating to commodity issues, any updates on PDH or Geismar 2?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Okay. Boy, that was a lot of questions, Craig.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
I'm sorry.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Trying to digest them all here.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I can take the – of the $150 million change in commodities since our February – we issued that guidance on February based on the price outlook at that time, I'd say something under $60 million was olefins, and the balance was NGL margins and related curtailments.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
I got you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, I'd say that's certainly the big numbers was on the NGL piece and then the Geismar piece, which is really behind us now. The PDH and Geismar 2 – great progress, really, on both of those projects and both in terms of putting the finishing touches on the contract for the polypropylene at PDH, and we do expect to be bringing that forward here in August before the board for further consideration on that project. But things are actually improving on that project in terms of – as we've started to getting quotes for a lot of the big equipment for that project. So we're really excited about the way that's going right now. On Geismar 2, very strong interest from two parties that we had narrowed that down to. And I would say we're into some pretty serious diligence now, with one party, in particular, at this point and I think very serious interest on their part and our part in terms of going ahead with the Geismar 2 project. So really great progress on both fronts there.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great. And I'm sorry for the barrage at you. The one additional item, I just noticed that with 2015 that coming down, but 2016 unchanged, I think there was over a 30% increase in expected crack spreads, and I was wondering if you could give some additional color around drivers that you're seeing in the 2016 at Geismar.
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
Yeah, I think there are a couple of things. Let me take that one third in line. First, I'd like to just add to the earlier answer that I gave that that power outage that we faced was related to a utility power failure to our plant so that was not inside our plant. It was rather the supply to the plant that took the plant down, totally unexpectedly, in a very significant severe manner. Second, you had asked about premium to Belvieu, I believe. And now, with Evangeline running, with us running, that premium has essentially fallen back to more normal levels in the $0.01 or $0.02 range, though remember that Louisiana is a thinly traded market, and so, you don't get every day visibility into what that premium is. Also, remember that our customers have a call on about 80% of our production. So we have only available to us about 20% sell into the spot market, and coming through the second quarter, certainly, through June and in July, we have been satisfying our full contract requirements to our customers, so selling essentially all of our volume in that contract. There've been some de minimis volumes that we have sold into the spot market only when there were some discontinuities between what our customers needed and what we were able to produce. And now that I've gotten through those two, somehow I've lost track of what the third question was.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It was the 30% increase in crack spread.
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
The 30% increase in crack spread. Thanks. Well, looking at this year, I think earlier in the year, we were saying that we saw inventories rather low in ethylene and that we could expect some demand growth and we could expect perhaps some disruptions in supply that might drive to a tightness in ethylene that would help improve that situation. We haven't seen that materialize quite as yet in this year, but certainly, as time passes into next year and subsequent years, up until the time when the new crackers come on, you would expect that continued demand growth, and of course, recoveries of international markets and the like that might be hampering volumes these days would result in some strengthening opportunities for margin growth. And I think that's what we see behind the future there.
Craig K. Shere - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
We'll go next to Ross Payne of Wells Fargo.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
How are you doing gentlemen?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Good morning. Couple of quick questions. Could we get a rough debt number or debt number for WMB or WPZ? And secondarily, thanks for the guidance on the fee-based from 2005 (sic) [2015] to 2017. Can you give us a rough estimate of what fee-based is currently for the company? And then third, I was going through your press release. Can you talk about the profits that the Geismar is currently generating or what it was maybe in the second quarter? Thanks.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Ross. This is Don Chappel. The debt numbers are in the 10-Q that we filed this morning. I'll try to grab something real quick here for you. But again, we filed the Williams and Williams Partners 10-Q this morning. All that detail is out there.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Great.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Long term debt, this is at Williams, $21.285 billion.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay, great. I'll check the Q on that.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, great. Thank you.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
And on the fee-based?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The fee-based percentage, I think, for this quarter and for 2015 is going to be in excess of 90%. I think somewhere in the 92% range given that Geismar was down for a portion of the year and kind of where commodities are. We're estimating or forecasting the fee-based percentage to be just a little below that over the three-year period, 2015 through 2017 is about 89%.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And the Geismar profits?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I don't think we've disclosed the specific Geismar profits, but we did indicate that there was $50 million of gross margin for the quarter.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. All right. When I'm looking at the press release and it goes over the Geismar incident adjustment of the negative $126 million, how do I think about that?
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That was business interruption and insurance proceeds. Again, a year ago, the plant was down, but we had business interruption insurance. And we estimated that during the second quarter of last year that we had a right to about $122 million. Since that date, we've collected -- we have a $500 million policy. We had losses, property losses approaching $70 million with just a little over $430 million, I believe, of BI. We've collected more than $420 million. We have a claim for $20 million that's open that's still being negotiated with an insurer, but again, the vast majority of our insurance claim has now been paid.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Looking at this, I mean it looked like it was $96 million in the second quarter 2014 and then it swung to a negative $126 million for the second quarter of 2015, so.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Again, there's a difference between GAAP and adjusted. So for GAAP, for financial statement purposes, we record the cash, the insurance proceeds when we have a signed settlement agreement with the insurers or we actually receive the cash. For adjusted earnings, we in effect accrued it based on our expectation of collection. John Dearborn from Investor Relations can walk you through the...
Unknown Speaker:
John Porter.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
John Porter.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
John Porter, excuse me. John Porter in our IR shop can walk you through the GAAP to non-GAAP numbers.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And just one more, do you guys know the timing of when your strategic review will be complete? Thanks.
Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
There is no timing announced.
Ross Payne - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
All right. Great. Thanks, guys.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Okay, thanks very much, Ross.
Operator:
We'll go next to Timm Schneider of Evercore.
Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI:
Hey, good morning, guys. Hey, Alan, when we spoke in April, I think you were saying this was the earliest time you guys had locked up all of your Conway storage and rail racks for some of the Northeast NGLs. Obviously, if you look at some of the E&P numbers, realizations were pretty awful. I was just wondering how you guys see that shake out as we get into the shoulder season of 2016, right, Q2, Q3 without really any incremental export capacity slated to come on until the end of that year and what impact that's going to have?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, Timm, great question and certainly one that a lot of people should be paying attention to, obviously. I do think that even though the export capacity, not any new export capacity coming on, there is, as you know, that hasn't been fully utilized. And I think the limitation there has been on ships having the capacity to carry that out. So I think that's kind of the next bottleneck, if you will, for the industry to face. And so, I think keeping a close eye on the availability of the shipping capacity to get out of the exports is probably the next thing to keep our eye on in terms of opening the markets up. But other than that, I don't really see much changing here domestically in terms of either storage capacity or rail loading capacity. I would say everything that can move and store NGLs right now is in full utilization, and building up behind the next bottleneck, which, as I mentioned, in this case is the export capacity getting the shipping capacity available to them. So I think that's the next thing to keep our eyes on here in the shoulder month. But certainly we don't see any near-term big relief here. I think we're probably three to four months out before we start to seize a lot of that capacity out there (56:35).
Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI:
Okay. And then my follow-up is, you obviously saw a large proposed merger transaction up in the Northeast with two of your competitors. From your standpoint, how does that change the competitive landscape in the Northeast in terms of competing for projects and whatnot, how do you guys see that from your perspective?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah, I don't really expect a whole lot of change. I think from our perspective, we're pretty excited to see Marathon bringing their business and they've always had an interest and are very well positioned to take care of lot of the heavies and the condensate in the area. And so, we're really excited to have them engaged in bringing takeaway solutions to the area. So I would say that's kind of the net positive out of it. In terms of competition, I think we've got such major acreage dedications already to us and it's a matter of getting the takeaway capacity coming online for the Northeast and now, even for the Marcellus and the dry Utica. And I think that will be really the drivers there is that capacity coming online and then we will be in a position to provide a lot of supply infrastructure to handle that, as those markets open up in the future. So I really see that as really the determinant up there more than the competitive landscape.
Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will go next to Sharon Lui of Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning. Just a quick question for John. Perhaps maybe you can just talk about your outlook for NGL pricing up in Canada and how maybe the recent weakness could impact I guess the returns of some projects coming on in the back half of this year?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
Yeah, it's a great question. And perhaps I can take it on by giving a little bit of background on how we make money there. And I think it's important for us all to remember that we make money on the spreads between gas and what is substantially an olefin stream. So we make money between gas and propylene and gas and uplift. And of course, we're protected on core price on our ethylene production up there in Canada. And so, really the substantive exposure that we face that I think – and certainly causes us concern is on the NGL portion or the (59:20) portion of that production. And certainly, today, propane is not returning a cheap value. And so, therefore, it's the one product that is not making money for us up in the Canadian pocket right now. And so we're just looking for opportunities where we might be able to mitigate that situation. We haven't found it yet. So I don't have a clear solution for you yet, but we have found a way to deal with the heavier part of the barrel. It's making money now and all the rest of the parts of the barrel are making money. And so, if you think about the pocket in that way, I think you'll understand that we're still contributing income in Canada despite the NGL difficulty. One last point, though, and that is the stranded (1:00:13) nature of that propane up in Alberta does substantiate our thesis on why we think the PDH and the creation of a demand center (1:00:22) in Canada creates a value-added project and a sustainably advantage project into the future.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Do you see any potential catalyst that would decrease that propane oversupply in Canada?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
Well, if you mean by catalyst a process that uses a catalyst to convert the propane into something else? I'm sorry.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Or maybe a project that would alleviate the oversupply situation up in Canada, like any drivers?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
The only thing that we occasionally seek through is whether (1:01:05) would ever reverse but right now, the (1:01:07) is needed up in Canada, and so, in the absence of another large pipeline that traverses rather long distances to move the propane to the Midwest or somewhere else in the United States, I think it's very hard to imagine something that's going to alleviate the situation on propane.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I would just say, Sharon, and certainly, we've got our eyes on that, and as John mentioned, there are ways that we're looking to help mitigate that. And part of that is to getting the propane back into the fuel markets. So if you think about that, where there are big straddle plants that are extracting propane, our facility extracting propane, the simple way is to get those propane barrels back into the gas stream where they came from in the first place in the most part and I think you'll see moves on people's parts to start to get a lot of that propane back into those streams.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. And I guess just a follow-up, how should we think about the near-term returns on the Horizon investment?
John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Liquids & Petchem Services, Williams:
Well, in the near-term while NGL prices are still where they are, I'd suspect they're probably going to fall a little bit short of where we would expect long-term returns to be. I think on a volume perspective, think of Horizon as being about a third of what we're doing (1:02:37) today. So I think that gives you a view on both the margin and the kind of volume.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
So just to remind you though on that, Sharon, the bulk of the income on that asset really comes off the propylene and the butylene and then the ethane, which has the fee-based contract or the floor (1:02:59) contract for the ethane already embedded, which gives us a margin on the ethane and ethylene. So that's really where the bulk of the value comes from and the propane stream, even though it's very depressed right now, certainly has not been and isn't expected to be a big contributor to value in the future.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our final question in the queue comes from Chris Sighinolfi of Jefferies.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Hey. Good morning, Alan. Thanks for the color this morning.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
I have a few questions. I promise to be quick. First, following on Shneur's inquiry about the relationship with Chesapeake, I'm just wondering – you were speaking specifically or inquiring specifically about the MVCs. I'm just curious sort of more broadly about the counterparty exposure you had to them. There's obviously been some visible setbacks for them over the last couple of months. So I guess within the context of that, have you tempered at all your expectations for the cost of service growth in the Northeast? I know your guidance in aggregate remained unchanged 2016 to 2018, but wondering if there was any movement within that on cost of service efforts, given CapEx headwinds potentially? And then, related, any recent conversations with them about the midstream contracts you have with them, any effort to renegotiate, do you see that as a risk?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. I'll take a stab at the broad relationship and the contract discussions, and I'll ask Bob Purgason to speak to the cost of service expectations in the Northeast and broadly. First of all, on a broad level, I'll just tell you we continue to enjoy very good relationship with Chesapeake. We're very impressed with their responsiveness to the situation that they're in. And I can tell you that they continue to work hard. Obviously, they announced an asset sale in the quarter. And they continue to look for opportunities, and we continue to be constructive in working with them where we can on that. And I would just tell you, again, I remain very impressed and very confident in their actions to put themselves in a position to have the right capital focused on the right assets. And I'm confident that they're going to be able to do that. And in terms of restructuring, certainly, they take the lead on that, and we try to provide support and find win-win ways where they can add volumes that help offset some of those obligations and that's the kind of things that we're looking at. And I'm not going to get ahead of them on that, but I would just tell you we're very excited about some of the new opportunities that we can help with where they can bring on new volumes up against existing obligations. And with that, I'll have Bob try to take the cost of service question.
Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area:
Yeah. Just in terms of our cost of service growth, there in the Northeast, it's really in our Marcellus north area where we're adding some compression to continue to support the development there. I'd note that's an area where the cost of service contracts are delivering, we'll call it, great market fees. You noticed we had a fee reduction in the first quarter, and it was related some – a part of it was the fee reduction in that north area due to the high volumes that drive that fee lower. So we continue to see that. And then our Utica area, which is cost of services well continuing to expand compression there to support really great wet Utica results that you're also seeing show up in our UEO OVM volumes. So, no, we still see particularly those Northeast contracts as good strong pieces of our portfolio and also look to be good in Chesapeake's activity as well.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot for that color. I guess, sticking on the Northeast and this is sort of a follow-up to Craig's question about the monster dry gas Utica wells we've seen recently. From a gathering perspective, can you address those types of wells or pads with the same type of infrastructure you've been using? Or is it a concentrated magnitude of production from those wells is going to alter how you have to service them and does that have any ramifications on either the type of return or the profile of return you might see gathering for such well?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I would just say that certainly already having the right-of-way and the infrastructure in the area, as you know, in a lot of our OVM area, we have a loop system, so we have one line that we can dedicate to rich service and one line that we can dedicate to lean service. Having said that, the kind of size of some of these wells that are being hit are obviously going to require some massive expansion of those systems. And I will just tell you that having the right-of-way established and having the interconnect into multiple takeaway pipelines is going to be what is valuable. And that's exactly how we're positioning ourselves out there. But I would just – if you think about it, an existing pad up there is almost like – and sometimes I think it's even more so the case, it's almost like an offshore platform, because the real estate up there, getting a flat spot, and having a road into it, and having pipelines into it in that very difficult terrain up there is really a precious piece of real estate. And so that's where you'll see the development of a lot of that Utica drive, particularly in the northern part of West Virginia there. And so we have the pipelines into those locations and the right-of-way into those locations. And I think we'll be very successful in continuing to pick up those volumes as they come on there. But you're right, the existing infrastructure – to the degree that we get takeaway capacity established out of the area, and by that I mean long haul pipeline, long-haul interstate pipelines established in the area, the existing infrastructure would be overwhelmed if the producers started going after drilling plan in those areas, because there is so much productivity available from those areas. Obviously, though the productivity is going to have to stay in check with demand in the market.
Robert S. Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Operating Area:
Yeah. I think it's a great example of where Access legacy and The Williams fit together, right, because this initial wave of development is going to be used in existing plumbing, to the extent that we've got proximal pipelines and/or rights-of-way we can give near-term service. And then we can wait for this big takeaway opportunity which is going to create a whole new wave of large infrastructure investment to meet these big wells. So I think we're positioned well to capture that business and give near-term service to those who want to produce dry wells given their economics.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I think one of the interesting elements of all this big Utica dry gas that may or may not be obvious at this point, is that it really is going to provide a lot of blending capacity into the gas pipelines. And so, if you think about this concern about the ethane recoveries and ethane takeaway, all of this big dry gas really provides a lot more capacity to put ethane into the long haul pipeline and still meet gas specs. And ultimately, what that means is it somewhat it helps solve the storage problem or ethane feed into some of the big crackers that are being developed there, because in effect, the gas pipelines become that storage element, and if there's a problem with the cracker, the ethane just goes into the gas stream, but still stays on spec. So that's actually one of the really interesting developments from our perspective coming out of this big Utica dry volumes that we're seeing show up.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
That's a great point, Alan. I guess my final question. You mentioned takeaway from the basin, and so I just wanted to follow-up with you quickly on Constitution. I think at the time of your Analyst Day, you were waiting or hopeful for a New York DEC permit in June. I know that didn't happen, but I'm just curious for an update on where the regulatory process for that project stands? I realize it's not a huge CapEx item for you in the greater context, but when we think about the effect on the basin takeaway, just curious for an update.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. I'd just tell you we've been working very closely with the DEC and are excited and very optimistic about where we stand and would hope to see a permit very soon.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Is there a point, at which – does it have a cascade? Is there a point at which it has a cascading effect on the timeline that you've put forth for in-service, or are we anywhere near that in your mind?
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I think right now, we feel good about the date that we put out there for getting that finished by the end of 2016, and so, I think right now, we feel pretty confident in that and feel like we've got a good path to get that done. So there're certainly some tight windows that will be pushing through here and we hope in the very near future. But we remain confident as we see here today in that.
Christopher Paul Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC:
Great. I appreciate your time. Thanks again for taking my question.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Operator:
And that concludes the question-and-answer session for today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Alan Armstrong for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Okay. Well, thank you all very much for joining us today. Really tremendous amount of fee-based revenue growth that's coming on, excited to have the Geismar expansion behind us and having that up and running and really excited about the way the execution is going on these major projects that are out in front of us and we're just going to continue to march our fee-based revenue growth up 17% in the first quarter growth, 17% here in the second-quarter growth, and we're just going to continue to see a big march as these projects come on. So I appreciate your involvement in the company and we look forward to updating you on our shareholder value propositions as that becomes available. Thank you.
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference. We appreciate everyone's participation today.
Executives:
John Porter - Head, Investor Relations Alan Armstrong - President and Chief Executive Officer Don Chappel - Chief Financial Officer John Dearborn - Senior Vice President, NGL and Petchem Services Rory Miller - Senior Vice President, Atlantic Gulf Bob Purgason - Senior Vice President, Access Midstream
Analysts:
Shneur Gershuni - UBS Christine Cho - Barclays Carl Kirst - BMO Capital Chris Sighinolfi - Jefferies Craig Shere - Tuohy Brothers Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company Eric Genco - Citi Mark Reichman - Simmons & Company Brian Lasky - Morgan Stanley Abhi Rajendran - Credit Suisse Timm Schneider - Evercore Jeremy Tonet - JPMorgan Ross Payne - Wells Fargo
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Williams and Williams Partners’ First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thank you, Joshua. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website, williams.com. These items include yesterday’s press releases and related investor materials, including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel, is available to respond to questions and we also have the five leaders of Williams’ operating areas with us
Alan Armstrong:
Great, thank you very much, John and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us and I will jump right in here on Slide 2 with snapshot of our first quarter results. The highlight for the quarter was the completing of our merger of the two MLPs to create the new Williams Partners. And with this milestone achieved, we have created a leading natural gas focused MLP that’s positioned to drive consistent long-term value for our investors. And this quarter’s results also show very strong underpinning of growth in our fee-based revenues that will drive our growth for many years to come. And in fact, all five of WPZ’s operating areas had fee-based revenue growth and four out of the five enjoyed double-digit percentage growth compared to first quarter of ‘14. And so the Northeast Gathering and Processing segment delivered an impressive 43% growth in fee-based revenues and that was even despite an outage on one of our – an ethane pipeline in the area and the Atlantic Gulf posted a very impressive 22% gain due to the first of many new projects coming online during the quarter and a continued build on the strength of that business and of course Access Midstream fee-based revenues continued their steady upward march going 11% over the prior year 1Q. We expect this growth in fee-based revenues to continue as we had major projects like our Keathley Canyon only start to contribute very late in the first quarter and big projects like the Rockaway Lateral and Leidy Southeast will provide substantial growth in 2Q and beyond. The weak spot for the quarter was NGL margins being off by $105 million versus the first quarter of ‘14 and our Geismar plant did not start consistently producing ethylene until late March. So, due to the strong growth in fee-based revenues and the strong contraction in commodity margins, actually 96% of our gross margin in the quarter came from fee-based revenues. Overall, our first quarter 2015 adjusted EBITDA was up 12% to $918 million and Williams received $515 million in distributions from Williams Partners, which is up from $455 million in the first quarter of last year. Overall coverage for WMB was at 1.14 times and this was after increasing our quarterly dividend per share up to $0.58, which was up from $0.40 last year. WPZ’s coverage was lower than we would have liked, but even with the major drop in NGL margins, if just the base, Geismar volumes at the actual sales prices during the quarter had been producing we would have fully covered our distribution in the quarter. So, again, that’s just the base Geismar volume, not the expanded and just at the actual prices so really shows, I think the strength that we are positioned for as we look forward to the Geismar volumes really starting to kick in here in the second quarter and then get to our full expanded growth volumes in June. I am also pleased that we are reaffirming our guidance today as it relates to WPZ distributions and WMB dividend. And for Williams, our guidance is $2.38 per share in 2015 with 10% to 15% annual dividend growth through 2017 and all that with growing coverage. And for Williams Partners, we are reaffirming our distribution guidance of $3.40 per share – per unit in 2015 with 7% to 11% annual LP unit distribution growth through 2017 also with growing coverage. So we are also reaffirming our EBITDA and dividend and distribution growth for both Williams and Williams Partners, but we do expect that 2015 to be near the low end of our ranges as we communicated in our 2014 year end conference call. And so this is really primarily due to three items here. One, the planning assumption that we have changed on the ethylene prices that we think now from a planning assumption, we have got that built in at closer to the first quarter actual prices of about $0.38 a pound for the balance of the year. And we think there will be some ups – we think there may be some upside of this, but we certainly want to be closer to current prices with our assumptions right now. Secondly, we have been informed by a couple of our Northeast producing customers that they will curtail Marcellus production as natural gas prices in the basin have been low and they will continue if they don’t see this improve. So we have seen some price related curtailment. We haven’t seen that fall into necessarily the drilling operations, but we have seen it in terms of just physical shut-in of production. And so this is going to dampen some of the expected growth from our Northeast volumes. However, we continue to feel very strong about the health – overall health of that business as demand for natural gas picks up and some of the extreme bottlenecks that exist in the Northeast started to be relieved. And then finally, we missed some revenues in the first quarter from Geismar and we are currently expecting to not get up to the full expanded plant rate until June. And, as you know, earlier we were expecting that to come on at the full expanded rate in April. So those are really the there items that are driving us down towards the lower end of our range for EBITDA and DCF. So with that, let’s move on to Slide 3. This list really shows some of the large scale assets that we are executing on. As you can see, it’s a long list and you will also see a tremendous amount of progress that occurred during the first quarter here. An important trend that you will see here is that a lot of these projects are really on the demand side of the business. And so the natural gas market as we have talked about, we think is going to continue to expand. It was first driven by low gas prices on the supply side and now we are seeing the demand side start to pick up. So whether in the near-term, with projects like the Rockaway Lateral, Mobile Bay South III and Leidy Southeast wherein the longer-term projects like Dalton Lateral and Virginia Southside II, the demand side of our network is really picking up and the request for proposals continue to come in for many market driven expansions. These projects, when we talk about for instance like the Dalton Lateral, they don’t just include the laterals into the new markets, these projects also provide shippers with firm on our mainlines back to the supply point. So we are expanding our mainline all the way back to the supply points as we build out those laterals both, because as you know the Transco system is fully subscribed. So, really nice investment opportunities as the market expands. We have also put some of the mainline portions of our Virginia Southside and Leidy Southeast projects in service early. And we have been very busy at the FERC filing certificate applications for projects like Atlantic Sunrise, Dalton Lateral, Virginia Southside II and Garden State project. We also are seeing the market into our NGL business coming to life with projects like Bayou Ethane in Texas Belle being placed into service this quarter as well. And on the supply – and during the first quarter we commissioned the Bucking Horse plant in the Niobrara area. And that will now be reported over in our West segment. We also commissioned the Keathley Canyon Connector project and we have reached an agreement to acquire up to 21% interest in the Utica East Ohio gathering system from Enervest. The Keathley Canyon Connector, just a little more of that, we did receive first production from Anadarko’s Lucius platform about midway through the quarter, but then in late March, we began receiving a very large volume of gas from Exxon's Hadrian field and so just a little more detail on that. The Lucius field, as you probably know is a deepwater oilfield and the Hadrian field is a gas field. And so really the power of that Keathley Canyon project because the Hadrian field didn’t get turned on until towards the end of March, we really didn’t enjoy a whole lot of Keathley Canyon Connector. But here in the second quarter that facility is really ramping up very nicely with some very strong volumes coming off of that as well as our Gulfstar project continues to build in production and volumes there as well. So as you can see, this list is fairly lengthy and it’s a testament to our great teams that are working very hard everyday to execute on this very aggressive and robust growth plan. And we are really starting to see a lot of these projects come to fruition and we are beginning to see the financial benefits, a lot of tremendous efforts by our – all of our project teams that are executing. And so with that, let’s move on to Slide 4. Just to close out here, first of all, the ACMP-WPZ merger, as we said really we think puts us in the position for the natural gas MLP with strong cash distribution growth and investment grade credit ratings. We do think it’s the MLP to be exposed to amongst the large caps if you like the prospects of overall market growth for both natural gas and natural gas derivatives. We would remain very focused and dedicated to our strategy on that side. And we really feel very good about where we are positioned on that. And additionally, I would say on the merger, we have also build some confidence in the synergies and the cost reduction opportunities as the combinations of our businesses has preceded. We continue to commission and bring on these large scale assets. And the first quarter is a great evidence of that, which you are going to see throughout the next several years continued strength of these big projects coming online and really driving strong growth in our cash flows. I will remind you about 88% of our WPZ gross margin is we expect to come from fee-based revenues. And as mentioned, a combination of the strong growth in the fee-based revenues in the first quarter along with some very weak commodity margins actually drove that up to 96% in the first quarter. So we probably will be below that number here in – sorry, we will probably be above that 88% number here in 2015 by a combination of very strong fee-based revenues and less dependence on these weaker commodity margins here in 2015. And in fact, in about $9.3 billion of our 2015 through 2017 in-guidance growth CapEx, 99% of this growth CapEx is focused on fee-based projects with nearly $30 billion of committed and potential growth capital through 2020. So our strategy remains very sound and the backlog of projects to serve the demand side of the growing natural gas markets continues to build and it’s also continuing to firm up. And we are very confident our plan is realistic and allows us to continue to provide solid shareholder return in whichever commodity price environment develops. All of this gives us great confidence that we will deliver high quality long lived cash flows from our competitively advantaged assets. And finally, I want to give you one last reminder about our Analyst Day being held on May 13. And as I said, you can find information related to this event on our website, as John pointed you to. And we really look forward to sharing with you our great future. And with that, we will open the line up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you so much sir. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni:
Good morning, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Shneur Gershuni:
I guess my first question is you sort of talk about a host of projects I think it’s about $9 billion worth of capital to be spent over the next couple of years. I was wondering if you can sort of talk about plans to finance these assets? Is there enough EBITDA coming in place in 2015 that your leverage ratios can support you investing mostly in debt or alternatively will you need to rely on the equity markets as well too?
Don Chappel:
Good morning, Shneur. This is Don. I think the beauty of it is those projects come in fairly ratably during this period. So, I think you can look at it as a continuation of the kind of organic growth that we have seen over the last several years. And we have a lot of that built into our near-term plans for 2015 as it is. So, not to say that there couldn’t be some additions, but we think the capital additions would be relatively modest. It could require some additional debt and/or equity, but we think that will be pretty modest in 2015. Certainly, as you can see in our guidance, the capital falls off somewhat in ‘16 and ‘17 and that will be filled with some of these organic projects as they are contracted and/or sanctioned and we would expect a combination of debt and equity to finance those in the future.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay, great. And just a follow-up to some of your prepared remarks, you talked about the potential for drilled uncompleted wells in the Northeast, is this a scenario where we would see those volumes really manifest itself in the second half of this year after the summer smoothen gas prices that we typically see or is this something that could take longer to play out? And then, if you can also talk about what the impact would be on the legacy access assets as well too in terms of the fee of service rate structure that you have in place?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. I will take that in the two parts there. First of all, just to clarify, what we actually are seeing is actual shut-in of existing flowing production. So – and my comment around the drilling operations was comprehensive to both the drilling and the completion. So, we are not seeing a lot of drilled wells not being completed, we are just seeing actual decisions to shut-in production because of extremely low netbacks in some of the constrained areas up in the far Northeast part of the Marcellus. On the second part of that question, ye, the areas that we see that we would obviously see that pickup to the degree that volume coming in lower we would see that affect the cost of service calculations for the future if those volumes didn’t flow. And we will by the way, Bob Purgason is going to be given a nice tutorial of that at the Analyst Day and going to provide some more detail at our May 13, Analyst Day around the way some of those contracts work in this environment.
Shneur Gershuni:
Cool. And one last follow-up, I was wondering if you can just talk about the Canadian oil fields business for a minute, margins have been challenged and so forth kind of like what steps Williams is taking to try and improve that and so forth or is it really just going to be dependent on the macro environment?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. I would say that first of all extremely low pricing in the quarter on propane up there. And so, we actually saw Edmonton propane a lot of you probably don’t follow Edmonton propane, because you just see the Belvieu and Conway postings, but Edmonton propane really actually got down to around a dime. So, it was quite a bit lower than the value of natural gas in the quarter. So, we did see some extremities up there in the Alberta markets in terms of seeing very low propane prices and that certainly did hamper and will continue to hamper. The long-term solution to that is great projects like our PDH project, which will provide great markets for those captive propane barrels up there. The propylene market remain actually pretty good and we are railing that out of there as part of our PDH project to the degree we go ahead with that, which we are excited about that project still and to the degree we go ahead with that, not only will that open up markets for the propane through the conversion to propylene, but also will provide a new market for the propylene there via the polypropylene unit that would be built downstream of our facility, but – and we wouldn’t own that, but it would be part of the overall complex. And so we are working to open up markets if you will for those stranded products and so that’s really the effort that we have growing about that. We also do have with that some structure contracts that will come, that will put some callers around the value of our products up there and help make that look more fee-based and take some of this extreme volatility that we have seen there.
Shneur Gershuni:
Great. Thank you very much guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho:
Good morning, everyone.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Christine Cho:
So, I just wanted to touch on this – the acquisition of the 21% equity interest in UEOM. And given it was immediately accretive, you guys still are or at least WMB is waiving $43 million of IDRs between now and ‘17. Is this because the JV is reinvesting in the cash flow back into the business or is there something else going on?
Don Chappel:
Christine, this is Don. Good morning. Williams chose to waive the IDRs, because it’s a business that also has quite a bit of growth. So, the cash flows in the first year, first couple of years, are not nearly as robust as they are a few years out. So, that’s really what made it immediately accretive is really the willingness of Williams to support the acquisition, because we think it’s strategic one. And two, we think it will provide very attractive returns. Does that answer your question?
Christine Cho:
I guess just a follow-up – actually, I will follow-up offline. Pricing for Geismar at least for the existing facility, I know that you have numerous contracts, but from what I understand at a high level, the reference pricing is Mont Belvieu, but I think you are actually selling it in Louisiana. So, are the contracts structured so that it’s Mont Belvieu plus some fixed number on top of that, maybe $0.02 or $0.03, because that’s what the customer would have to pay for transport if they were physically bringing it from Texas? And then it’s – some of the expansion capacity that will be exposed to the actual spot pricing in Louisiana, which is currently $0.10 to $0.15 higher than Belvieu. Is that kind of how I should be thinking about it?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Christine, actually those contracts are swaps back – a lot of those are swaps back to the Mont Belvieu market at Belvieu market. And so there are exchanges between parties that have product in the river versus – and parties that have demand at Belvieu. And so those are actually are setup as swaps. And so you shouldn’t build anything on top of that. The way the business is structured of course there is a number of different contracts and there is quite a bit of complicity to it, but the way you really should think about it is that we have customers that have a call on about 80% – up to about 80% of our production at Geismar. And sometimes they will take all of that, sometimes they won’t. If they don’t take all of that, then we have the 20% plus whatever they leave for us to sell into the – physically sell into the Geismar market on spot. And so that’s really how you should think about that. So, when we are operating at just the base rate, we won’t have any excess available to sell in to that market, unless somebody doesn’t call on that production for whatever reason, they might have a plant down or they maybe have a better price from somebody else and it might not call on that volume. And at that point, we would be free to sell it in to the highest value market wherever that is. So, I think that’s the right way to think about that.
Christine Cho:
I see. That’s very helpful. And then what about the expansion capacity is that going to be the same way or that’s going to be actually exposed to spot pricing in Louisiana?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, as you can think about a lot of the actual expansion, so – basis, we are running at about 70% of total expanded, which is very close to base rate. And so at the number I quoted at 80% is 80% of the full expanded rate. So at the base rate, we don’t have any excess provided that people call on their volumes.
Christine Cho:
I see. Okay, that was very helpful. Thank you. And then I guess could you also talk about expectations for the ethylene market maybe near-term and medium-term, it sounds like worldwide supply demand is pretty tight for the year and maybe was short in the U.S. next year, but any insight into what you are seeing would be helpful?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I am going to ask John Dearborn to pick up on that, please.
John Dearborn:
Yes. Thanks, Christine and thanks for the lead-in on the subject as well. So I guess from our perspective, we would be a bit bullish on ethylene as the year wears on, but we don’t want to set an unrealistic expectation. But if we take a look at steadily increasing oil prices, strong demand, strong margins in the derivatives, certainly here in North America, we will be filling some underutilized assets in the Louisiana market. And we came into the year with relatively low inventories and so all of that I think would blend credence to a positive outlook on the year. Of course, how the market performs would – is yet to be proven.
Christine Cho:
Great, thanks so much.
Operator:
And next, we will move on to Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.
Carl Kirst:
Thank you. Good morning everybody. John, can we just kind of keep on the thread of the ethylene price for a second. And I guess I am trying to think of basically to Christine’s question, you are trying to reconcile thinking that we would maybe be on a gradual strengthening through the year versus it sounds like Alan what you said for planning purposes, we are kind of keeping it more flat at this $0.38 level. And so I guess I am just trying to better understand what may – what’s going to have to happen to kick the ethylene price back into the 4 years or where our midpoint of guidance is for ‘16 and ’17, is there a gating event we should be watching or is it something as simple as quite frankly, just global GDP here?
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks for the follow-on question. No, I think there are a number of factors that could play into the prices moving up. I think this is a natural tightening of the market as these markets the uses of ethylene growing year upon year globally into the very large markets at somewhere above 2% a year, somewhere about 3% a year, I am sorry. These global markets grow every year. And its okay, that supply has been – and there is not a lot of high coming in the next year or so. And so you could imagine it’s going to be a continual thing you can just basically find on demand. Of course, we are going to un-restrict the market a little bit here but from Louisiana and Texas, that should be helpful to the Gulf Coast certainly to the Gulf Coast market. And I think the third factor that could play into this is with relatively low inventories coming into the year of ethylene. And we always predict rather high utilization rates on crackers. We have had a pretty good first quarter, but if there should be some mishaps in some crackers around the system in the Gulf Coast, of course that could provide a negative supply shock to the market, which would of course have an impact on prices. So I just think it’s a general growth in the ethylene building markets that’s going to continue to see us enjoy some positive pressure here. But I can’t ever predict as how quick it’s going to move. If we look at polyethylene today, polyethylene is selling somewhere around this $0.50 range. And so there is certainly plenty of margin in the changed matter of like a split between each of the products in the chain.
Carl Kirst:
Okay, that’s very helpful. Thank you. Alan and I understand you guys are going to be doing a deep dive here quite shortly, but is there any additional color perhaps to share, say for instance on Appalachian Connector at this point whether it’s on a slow burn or I guess, is there anything incremental to add at this point?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, not a whole lot to add there at this point, Carl. I would just say the market is continuing to try to shape around that. And I would say it’s a mix between – on our project is a mix between producer push and market pull and trying to find the right balance of that. And obviously, one of our primary goals there is to make sure that we have the very best market outlets available for our upstream assets coming out of OVM. And so that’s an item that we have focused on pretty tightly and has I would just say, added some parameters and constraints to the project. And so that’s one of the things though that from our advantage point, we are very focused on and we are very serious when we talk about connecting best supplies to best markets. We are very serious about making sure we accomplish that. And so that’s really been one of the complicating factors on that. But we will have more to talk about at the Analyst Day on that.
Carl Kirst:
Would it be fair if I think the last timing update is potentially late 2018 and the service if it all came together kind of working backwards, is it fair to say – well, to meet that date, you need to get commercial viability contracts by the end of 2015 as far as the potential target?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would say given some of the difficult areas that includes Appalachian Trail crossing and some forest – right around some forest service, I would say that’s getting pretty late if it pushes back that far. So I think people are going to learn some lessons on that effort in terms of trying to get build through that difficult area.
Carl Kirst:
Understood, I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Hey, Alan. How are you?
Alan Armstrong:
Great. How are you doing?
Chris Sighinolfi:
I am great. I just had a couple of questions. I am not sure if this is one for you or for Don, but I am just looking at the project sort of calendar, which slide that is, it looks like the CapEx on Atlantic Sunrise came down by a touch from the time you reported 4Q, it looks like about $200 million, just wondering what drove that?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, sure. Well, I would tell you that’s pretty exciting news. And I would say that the – if you think about all of the resources and the – whether it’s steel mills or skilled labor, if you think about all of the resources that we are supporting some massive drilling operations here in the U.S. and the fact that those are now slacking, we really are starting to see that come through even though it’s a different area of the business, we are really starting to see that come through in our sector of the business as well. And so that reduction was based on a number of things. One was a firm we now acquired, our pipe is purchased and we saw that come in dramatically lower than our expectation for the price with the price of steel coming down. And we also are seeing much softer prices on the contractor rates for construction practices as well. So the team is doing a great job of really looking for any and every opportunity on that. And so we had quite a bit of contingency built into that. And so we are just taking – one of those is just actual prices of steel coming in much lower than we expected and some of the rest of that is taking some of the contingency out that we had built in there.
Chris Sighinolfi:
So, Alan is that something we are likely to see on some of the other projects you are advancing or is it just given where Atlantic Sunrise was in the development phase at the time of the price collapse that was sort of squarely manifested on that project. And then as the second question, I think you had talked about a seven times multiple anticipated on that project in particular, is that now likely to be improved versus that prior estimate or given your assessment as to what was sort of captured originally is it unchanged?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. No, you are right. That will come – that will fall right to our bottom line because that project was negotiated, great projects. So whatever capital we save comes to us on that. And on the first part of your question around will we see it, that kind of savings trends into other projects, I would say absolutely. We are seeing some pretty big relief on major equipment, on steel prices and importantly on the availability of engineering and skilled labor resources. And so we certainly will see that come through. I would say though that before we write that into our books, while that is subsiding, I would say the regulatory environment for projects continues to get more and more difficult. And so we have to leave some contingency in there for that. So, the actual cost of construction for these projects, I think is definitely – the answer to that is definitely that is coming down, but clearly like we have seen on projects like constitution, where the regulatory format is – and several people have say so over it and sometimes are mutually exclusive requirements. Those kinds of complications I think will continue to hit the industry, particularly in areas where there is heavy population centers like in the Northeast, where a lot of the growth is.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Yes. No, I understood. I guess switching gears my second question would be in regards to the ACMP side of business, I think you guys have reiterated the CapEx plan there roughly 21% of the $9.3 billion, with the CHK CapEx reduction already sort of anticipated by you in that number or is there downside to perhaps how much CapEx to put in the ACMP side in conjunction with a slowdown over at Chesapeake?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Let me have Bob Purgason take that.
Bob Purgason:
Yes. Chris, I think what you are seeing is the big build out on our systems has largely already occurred. So, even though we are seeing a slight kind of current decrease in capital in general, just you are not going to see something significant, because the infrastructure is built out.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay. So, in terms of the cost of service modeling that we had done historically on the ACMP, the major driver of that is simply how much you could deploy in any time period? I guess what I am getting after is do you have much in the way of sort of visibility on that side of it certainly as we move past 2015 or are we sort of just cautiously trading along and watching what the producer CapEx might shakeout to be?
Bob Purgason:
Yes. Well, again I think we will talk some more. In fact, I have got some good examples of how the cost of service models respond to this environment coming up at the Analyst Day, but again remember, the bulk of that build out was in the early years that’s occurred. And we had planned always for the capital to tail off in the out years and then you have adjustment there for some contractual growth that happens as a result of that levelized rate. But again, it’s, I would say, on plan to what we have expected in terms of current performance.
Chris Sighinolfi:
Okay, great. Well, thanks guys for the help there. I look forward to more color on the 13th.
Bob Purgason:
Thank you.
Operator:
And next, we will move on to Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere:
Good morning, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig Shere:
Don, to start with your answer to the equity issuance question didn’t exactly sound like what I thought I heard on the last call when maybe you might have described ‘16/17 base case budget following de minimis equity issuance. Are you perhaps more agnostic as you see how commodity pricing shakes out and how does the CapEx deflation pressure Alan just referred to reflect on those kinds of decisions?
Don Chappel:
Craig thanks for the follow-up. Again I was commenting on again what I think we have a modest amount of equity required to execute the plans in our guidance. However, obviously, we have a lot of other projects on the burner here. And I was really commenting on the fact that some of those additional projects would require some additional financing. I think that was part of that question. And that additional financing would be a combination of equity and debt. And the real guiding – the guidelines there are really maintaining our credit metrics and credit ratings. So, that will really be the guide. In terms of the way we are thinking about UEO right now, we are always thinking of that as more of a 13% acquisition versus the 21%, because we do expect that our partner will step up and acquire the 8% that they have a right to acquire.
Craig Shere:
I got it. So, the base plant hasn’t changed at all in terms of funding despite some of the first second quarter headwinds you all described?
Don Chappel:
Yes, there is some I would call it modest changes obviously the UEO was certainly not part of the plan.
Craig Shere:
Sure. And any further thoughts I am sure you will discuss it in a couple of weeks here, but around ACMP WPZ merger related commercial opportunities and CapEx savings over and above the $50 million cost synergies?
Alan Armstrong:
Let me take that. I think the commercial opportunities continue to be very exciting, particularly in kind of the West Virginia and Southwest PA area. And so that’s very attractive. And as well I would say the combination of our joint venture opportunities between in the Utica are also presenting some nice opportunities and the combination of the liquid clearing outlets for that business are very attractive to us as well. So, I would say the opportunities have probably been maybe even a little better than we thought, because we have got Access with providing basically a greater reach and some great capabilities in terms of well connect and compression addition in the area that really allows us to kind of expand the reach for OVM. So, we have got several deals that we are working right now that are fairly substantial and really are just firmly as a result of having those two capabilities brought together. So, we remain very excited about that. On the CapEx – sorry on – further on synergies, a measure I like to look at is what percentage of our overhead or our G&A costs are hitting us as a percentage of our fee-based revenues and that has come down pretty dramatically here over the last – as we look in ‘14 in other words we take all of our G&A expenses compared to fee-based revenues in ‘14 and look at that into 2015. That’s come down pretty dramatically. And it’s hard to move that number very big, because it is such big numbers, but that’s a measure that I like to watch and that’s improving very nicely which tells me we are able to use the scale of our overhead to grow our business and bottom line improve our net margins. So, both of those things are very positive. And I would say as well on the CapEx side, we are in general expense side we are finding things where we are able to take the best contract offerings, where we buy chemicals or lube oil or things like that on a procurement side and our supply chain management side, we are finding some good synergies there in taking the very best prices amongst the two entities.
Craig Shere:
Great. That’s helpful. And last question again I am sure we are going to hear some more, but is there anything more to speak on with regards to PDH and Geismar 2 opportunities?
Alan Armstrong:
I would say that as I mentioned earlier the cost reductions that we are enjoying on the pipeline side were also seeing that on some of the heavy equipment side for project like PDH. And so as we are refining those estimates on PDH to come forward for our final investment decision on PDH, we have got a lot of positive tailwinds associated with lower cost on that. And we are hoping to be able to provide a little more detail about where we are on that at the Analyst Day Meeting in terms of the traction, but I would just say just generally the PDH project is moving ahead very nicely and we are more nearing having all the facts and figures in place to make a final investment decision on that. And then on Geismar 2, really strong interest in the project and I am pretty excited about the way that’s positioned with some pretty attractive partners and I think that one is moving at the pace we would expect and we are excited about that as well. So both of those projects I would say continue to gain momentum.
Craig Shere:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Brandon Blossman with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.
Brandon Blossman:
Good morning, guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Brandon Blossman:
Alan, moving kind of to the longer dated end of your project backlog and thinking about what’s out there, including potential projects, it looks like quarter-over-quarter, one, you have rolled forward a year, but two, you have added $5 billion to that big picture outlook, is that just a function of rolling forward or is there quite a few incremental projects in that outlook?
Alan Armstrong:
There are a few incremental projects in the outlook and I would say that we also – I am proud to say we are firming up some things as well as some projects in the kind of the medium-term that have – that we have added in there that just kind of came to us unexpectedly that have been added. So several of the market-type expansions for instance on Transco, but we have also got some sizable opportunities as the market continues to build out for the LNG. Transco, of course is extremely well positioned to serve many of the LNG projects. And so we have gone through some very successful open seasons and so that’s adding some projects. And as well, we have got some opportunities to with – into serving Mexico that are – have come on the radar screen as well. So overall, it’s a combination of new projects kind of in the medium-term that have been added in and are firming up very nicely and further out on the back end some of these new projects that has Transco serving markets in the southern end of its system.
Brandon Blossman:
Okay, that’s helpful. And I guess fair to assume that we will hear more about that at Analyst Day or all those projects. Third question for you even bigger picture. Are we kind of firmly moving as it relates to Transco but gas transport in general, are we moving from a temporary supplier-driven project Q2 much more weighted towards demand things and demands in your project?
Don Chappel:
We absolutely are and I am really excited to see that. I think all along, we have thought that this natural gas market growth would come – has been supply-led and obviously that’s put lower prices out, which is just further encouraged the confidence in the demand side just are taking advantage of that and we are really starting to see that come through on our systems on the natural gas side. But we also, I think we remain really excited about that as it relates to the natural gas, liquids and the Petchem space and positioning ourselves to be able to serve that growing market as well. So I would say the natural gas market expansion is upon us. And we are seeing that through all of these RFPs and all this growth in our system. And we would try to be ahead a little bit of the NGL Petchem build out. And we are very confident that with the expansion going on in that space, it’s going to take a lot more plumbing and storage to serve that growing market. As we positioned our self well for that and the Bayou Ethane project and Texas Belle are just kind of the front end of those opportunities for us.
Brandon Blossman:
Okay, thank you. I appreciate it. I appreciate the color.
Don Chappel:
Thanks.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Eric Genco with Citi.
Eric Genco:
Good morning. I was wondering is kind of piggybacking on some of these CapEx questions, is there some building conservatism to your maintenance CapEx guidance of $430 million, because the roughly $15 million this quarter seemed – is that really just seasonality or is there sort of a hint there that maybe that’s some built-in conservatism?
Don Chappel:
No, I wouldn’t go put that in the bank. That is seasonality and we typically see that in the first quarter. We have got winter weather and we have got the crews tied up on meeting peak demands. We hit some extreme peaks on our system here in the first quarter and so that’s a really bad time to be to be maintenance on your pipelines. And so you will see those dollars increase here over the summer months. You will see as our work crews are out doing those – doing the maintenance on our pipelines, you will see that pick right back up.
Eric Genco:
Okay. And then my second question, I was hoping you could expand a little bit on sort of the Canadian side of things, is the Canadian PDH facility all included in some of the CapEx guidance that you have given for the MB side of things?
Don Chappel:
No, it is not included in guidance. It is in that potential pie, the $30 billion, but it is not in the $9.3 billion guidance.
Eric Genco:
Okay. I am just trying to, I guess, get a sense of the different pieces of what’s there because I kind of look through the projects that are there, it looks like their horizon upgrader comes on 4Q ‘15, is that in parts of PV through 2015 [ph], Texas Belle build through 2015. There is - and then kind of looking at that relative to the CapEx guidance of $260 million for growth for 2015, $185 million for ‘16, what - I guess what are some of the $185 million in ‘16 and just to try to understand how the capital spend is going there, because it really if you look at and I understand that there are some commodity issues that work but given kind of the way it looks like some of those things are coming on, I just want to understand what I am missing because it looks like for an incremental $35 million of EBITDA over that period of time, but $445 million in over those 2 years, I am just trying to understand that and what’s missing?
Alan Armstrong:
I am not sure exactly what you are looking at.
Don Chappel:
For the segment capital guidance there.
Eric Genco:
It's on Slide, maybe not 17, but probably close.
Alan Armstrong:
And so your question is where is the profitability from all of that capital spending that…?
Eric Genco:
Well, there is that and then maybe also just the timing of what is – what’s going on in ‘16 that requires $185 million, if Horizon comes along in 4Q ‘15 and the ethane pipe and then what Texas Belle in ‘15, where is sort of the – where is that going and what’s the incremental?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question. And as I mentioned on the previous response, we really are excited about being kind on the tip of the iceberg and building out the infrastructure for the Petchem expansion. And so a lot of that capital in ‘16 is focused on building out for what we think is a growing position on the Petchem side there. And so we are putting quite a bit of capital to work building out some of these legacy systems that we bought a couple of – 2 years or 3 years ago, we bought quite a bit of a latent pipeline down there from parties like Exxon and BP and Explore. And so this capital is putting a lot of those pipelines to work making interconnections, extending them, expanding them and pushing them into those markets. And so that’s what a lot of that capital was.
Eric Genco:
Okay, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Alan Armstrong:
And you can see some of those projects on I believe its Slide 37, I believe it is, you can see some of the detail. And we will be providing some more detail in the Analyst Day on that.
Eric Genco:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And next, we will move on to Mark Reichman with Simmons & Company.
Mark Reichman:
Good morning. Alan has alluded to some of the challenges in receiving permits, etcetera. And so just wanted to ask if you could just walk us through the process of bringing Constitution in service in the second half and what variables could lead to and in-service date at the front end versus the latter part of the year. And maybe expand your answer to talk a little bit about some of the regulatory challenges of some of these projects that are listed on Page 18 of the data book and your expectations with regard to how they apply to the expected in-service dates?
Alan Armstrong:
Question, and then I am going to ask Rory to give you some more detail on the Constitution project and what’s going on. The projects that many of which are on Page 18 there, many of those projects are along our existing right of way. And so to agree they are along are existing right of way, much less public resistance and certainly that’s one of the huge advantages of Transco is that it’s already got right of way in the extremely heavily populated areas that are very difficult to establish any new routes and so most of those projects are expansion along that existing right of way. You can see that one big exception is that leg coming down on Atlantic Sunrise. But our team has really gotten ahead of that and it’s done a nice job of getting out and getting some of the tougher areas of right of way pin down on that one. And so I would say we are very fortunate to have the established right of ways that we have. And I would say Constitution is an example of one where we didn’t have existing right of ways. And I think as kind of foreshadows what the industry is up against in terms of getting new pipelines built in areas like this. And particularly, as you get further into New York and New England area, it gets more difficult as you get into those areas. And everybody wants lower priced energy, but nobody wants the pipeline in their backyard and that’s simply the issue that we are facing here. And we really need some political leadership to really establish an energy policy that would encourage and help the public understand the benefit of having these lower priced energy into their areas. On the Constitution piece, I am going to turn that over to Rory to talk about the detail to permitting them.
Mark Reichman:
And just quickly is it challenged more at the state level, it’s more at the state level than the federal agencies, correct?
Alan Armstrong:
It is certainly in general that is correct. In the case of Constitution it is almost squarely on the state there. But the challenge is when the feds have delegated their authority to the state and the state doesn’t see it as something they critically need. That’s the reason we have interstate commerce laws and so that one state can’t block another state from enjoying the benefits of infrastructure. And yet in some of these cases for whatever reason the feds have delegated some of their authority and that is where we run into some of these problems. Rory will take the permit, please thanks.
Rory Miller:
Okay. That was a great runway to kind of where we are at from a regulatory standpoint to get this project in service. I think everybody is aware that sometime ago we got our FERC certificate for this project. But as Alan pointed out, some of the permitting had been delegated to the state of New York. We have most everything we need other than the New York DEC final permit on this project. We do have all of our land and right-of-way secured. We are what I would say – what I would call in the final pros of working through some final details on some wetlands issues and the New York DEC I feel like it really rolled up their sleeves and working with us very closely on trying to get the remaining questions answered. And we are very optimistic that we are going to be getting a permit here in the next couple of months. And I believe there is also Corp of Engineers permit that would follow that. But that’s more of a sequencing issue than an issue where we expect any type of dispute or anything like that. Once we get started and like I said we believe that will be in a couple of months and take about a year to construct, that’s not exactly right, but for planning purposes just figure a year or so. If we get the New York DEC permits than the permits from the Corp of Engineering which would follow say middle of the summer then we can be in service in the middle of the summer in 2016. If they come in later just kind of use that year timeline as how much we would move back in-service date. But I would say in general right now I feel better about this Constitution project and where we are at than I have in the last 2 years. Things have really been coming together. People have been very engaged at the agencies. They are trying to do their job. And I think because of the climate in New York, their standard is very high. But they are just going to make sure that they have all of their ducks in a row and I think we are very close to that point.
Mark Reichman:
So if the DEC is taking public comments until May 14, then you think that they could file or grant the permit say in the June timeframe?
Rory Miller:
I think that’s the case. This latest re-filing that we did with New York DEC was merely procedural. In fact the year prior we had done the exact same thing but we basically canceled and re-filed with all the existing information that we have been building up in the project. And in fact the New York DEC came out and said, they required to have this open comments period, but they said look, we have already commented, we got your comment, we are going to be using and considering all the previous comments that have been supplied. So the additional 14 day period would be for if there are any new comments that hadn’t already been covered by the previous comment period then those would come in. But I think all of that’s has been run down to ground pretty sufficiently and I don’t really see that as introducing any new risk into the timeline that we see before us now.
Mark Reichman:
And not to flog it too much more, but – so this was for the water quality certificate application, so what about the air title permit related to the compression station upgrade?
Rory Miller:
I think we have got all that. This water issue is the issue that’s really kind of the last has been push we need to get through.
Mark Reichman:
Okay great. Thank you very much for the color.
Rory Miller:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. And next we will move to Brian Lasky with Morgan Stanley.
Brian Lasky:
Good morning. Just curious on the shut-in volumes, can you just quantify the impact of that for the quarter or just the magnitude going forward?
Alan Armstrong:
I am sorry could you repeat that?
Brian Lasky:
The shut in volumes, yes, can you quantify that?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure. One of the probably most obvious pieces on that as Cabot has made some announcements on that. And we expect that to be to between about $300 million and $500 million of shut in volumes over a number of that would grow and we think that’s probably for about five months or six months. So and most of that we think will just be here in the second quarter, during the shoulder months. And so they can make good money at very low prices up there. But when the systems are full up there and there is not enough market. They really get – the spot incremental sale gets extremely low and puts pressure on their other productions since they are such a large producer in the region they tend to put pressure against their own sales. And so we think this is short-lived but and maybe second and into the third quarter a little better, but that’s about it. So that’s the amount we expect.
Brian Lasky:
Got it. And then just on your – I was wondering if you could just walk us through high level I am sure you will go through this more at the Analyst Day, but just high level how you guys are thinking about volumes across your gathering and processing in the West and Northeast kind of the balance of the year, if you could provide kind of a high level trajectory of how you are thinking about that?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Sure. I would say in the West volumes continue to remain pretty flat, pretty steady out there and the rate escalators that we have in our contracts over time have basically after gathering our fee-based gathering revenues extremely flat in the West despite some pretty light declines. And so I would – I think we would expect that to continue. I think the bigger question will come into the ’16, ’17 timeframes in terms of what kind of continued drilling might occur. The one area we are seeing some continued activity that our team has done a great job of capturing is in the San Juan Basin, particular with the Mancos play and the team has done a great job of continuing to capture that business. And of course the volumes in Bucking Horse will continue to grow and that plant just got really as we speak is really just getting lined out to build a ramp up to full throughput on that facility. So those are kind of the drivers that I think will keep us relatively flat. And we will just have to wait and see what holds for ‘16 and ‘17 depending on gas prices and how those move over time. In the Northeast, I would say continued very, very impressive production rates from wells particularly the Utica dry the wet really have kind of for somewhat – to some degree of kind of not built into our plan, but we are seeing more and more evidence that the combination of the Utica dry along with the Marcellus wet particularly around our OVM system is some pretty powerful combination of the economics for producers. And of course the other side of that coin is the great success that they are having is continuing to put pressure on the bottlenecks and constraints getting out of the area. And so, again I think we are excited about seeing all of this demand pool coming into the market on our Transco system because we know where there are some great supplies that can help feed that for years to come and continue to grow the market steadily. But I think we are going to continue to see pretty moderate drilling in the Marcellus and the Utica as forecast. We don’t see really big changes to that. And I think really the only surprise to this for the quarter was just the shut-ins due to lower prices was really the only surprise we have seen on the volume side.
Brian Lasky:
Got it. So would you characterize what you are seeing thus far in the first quarter is pretty consistent with what you are planning in the guidance?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes.
Brian Lasky:
Absent the shut-ins?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Very close to it, staying right in line with our expectations.
Brian Lasky:
And then maybe just one last question. You talked a little bit about the dry gas Utica, and then – and one of your competitors that are out there talking about potential opportunity there and I was just wondering if you guys could talk about the competitive dynamics for some of those opportunities that you are seeing right now with the increase in the number of MLPs up in the region and also in light of what’s going in the broader commodity environment?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. I would just say whoever has got the pipe in place and has the best market outlet is probably going to win that business up there. And we have positioned ourselves very well to get that accomplished. And anybody can always come in and buy business and so forth. But I think we are positioned to really make a nice return on our investment by just capturing the business that is – that we are well positioned to capture in the area. And so I think we will continue to do that. But clearly, one of the key issues up there is going to be a multitude of market outlets, not just any one market outlet, but multiple market outlets. And we are trying to make sure as we grow our system, we are really investing our efforts in making sure that we have got best market outlets for the gas up there. And so that’s involved a large team on both our marketing side, on the gathering end as well as our team from Transco and our Atlantic Gulf team really trying to make sure we are providing very best market outlets for the producers up there. And just like that, it’s always been a winner for Southwest, we think that will be a winner for us in the Northeast as well long-term.
Brian Lasky:
And just one final one on Appalachian Connector there, do you have to negotiate directly with the park service there, is that how that one works and does that require enact of Congress, can you just maybe just walk through the regulatory process for that project in particular and kind of what you guys have baked into your timeline in terms of the regulatory schedule?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Maybe we will get into that level of detail a little more at the Analyst Day, I will just say we worked pretty hard to stay away from areas that would require that kind of protracted permitting requirements in the area. But it’s an area that requires some pretty careful orchestration to step through. And we will provide some more detail on that – on the Appalachian Connector at the May analyst meeting.
Brian Lasky:
Okay, fair enough. Thank you very much.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Abhi Rajendran from Credit Suisse.
Abhi Rajendran:
Hi guys, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Abhi Rajendran:
Couple of quick questions, now that the commodity backdrop has stabilized a little bit do you have any update on the drop down of the remaining NGL Petchem projects at WMB level, I know last update you guys gave was that was going to get pushed out maybe later in the year, but any update or color there will be helpful?
Don Chappel:
Abhi, this is Don. Really, no update at this point, we can talk more about it at the Analyst Day. But there is no urgent need to do it. And certainly, we feel better about it when equities are trading better. So that’s kind of where we stand.
Abhi Rajendran:
Okay, got it. And then last quick one for me. Looking ahead to Analyst Day, are you guys thinking about sort of reintroducing the segment level guidance which you had last year would kind of help give some color by segment what’s going on to volumes and margins and whatnot?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Abhi, I would just say we haven’t confirmed that yet and so just stay tuned for Analyst Day.
Abhi Rajendran:
Okay, got it. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And next, we will move on to Timm Schneider with Evercore.
Timm Schneider:
Hey, good morning guys. Most of my questions have been answered, so I have a macro question for you guys. How do you see the Northeast NGL scenario kind of play out, right, so one of your peers is saying they are going to be running at 90% utilization just firing NGLs into the base and you are getting into the shoulder season where it’s another real propane demand basically lack of storage, how do you think about realizations up in the Northeast and getting those NGLs to a home where they are actually needed?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, great question, Timm. And as you know we have been concerned about this since the Bluegrass days and we remain very concerned about the clearing of liquids out of the area. And I think unfortunately, the answer is they are going to get cleared out there by rail. And just as evidenced, what’s going on in that space, our Conway rail facility for the first time that I can ever remember is even though we have dramatically expanded our rail position – our rail rack position there at Conway, our inbound which I don’t ever remember this occurring, our inbound capacity on rail is fully contracted for the summer months. And so I think that tells you kind of what’s going on, which is all those products getting put on rail and it is going to any home again for storage and Conway is an attractive place for that. And of course Conway then has great access into the Bellevue markets when it’s needed there as well. So I think that’s what we are going to see, I think already seeing it. And I think the wholesale marketers of the NGLs have realized that’s one of the few places that you can clear those liquids and then sell them into the market as the market demands them. So I think that’s what we are going to continue to see more of the beneficiary that there with Conway. And if anything, we are probably guilty of under-pricing that service given how strong the demand has been there.
Timm Schneider:
That’s interesting. Can you tell us how much of it is to rail from the Easter Conway?
Alan Armstrong:
No, I don’t have the detail on exactly what that rate is.
Timm Schneider:
Got it. And in terms of building additional storage in the Northeast, specifically I realize it’s all above ground storage because it’s simply reservoirs and that doesn’t really work for NGLs, do you have any sense of how much more it is to build storage in the Northeast than in the Gulf Coast?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would – if you don't have a salt formation, you really don’t have a very attractive place or a few projects that we have been looking at through the Access team and looking at some areas to try to develop that, but I would just say it is the scale of opportunity is very limited for storage because you don’t have the big salt lands like you do in either the Conway area or the Gulf Coast area salt land has provided the opportunity for storage. Without that, it's very difficult – and frankly that’s one of the reasons that the Gulf Coast Petchem space is continuing to be prolific for year after year after year as one it has access in ports, but also it’s got the great advantage of salt dome storage for both the raw – feedstocks as well as the finished product. And that’s in the Olefin’s basins. So those are the big advantages. And frankly, I don’t see that changing anytime soon. So, very expensive to build any kind of storage capability in the Northeast, because mostly it’s going to be above ground storage capabilities.
Timm Schneider:
It sounds like your view that Northeast in fact does need another export solution over call it the next 2 year or 3 years?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes.
Timm Schneider:
Okay, thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks, Timm.
Operator:
Thank you. And next we will move on to Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Good morning. Thanks for all the color this morning, it’s been very helpful. I just wanted to touch base – here has been some chatter in the marketplace for the potential of a family level consolidation to improve the family’s cost of capital. Our impression has been that there is not really any rush or need to do that, do something like this right of way that we can give the post-ACMP structure a chance to prove itself and earn a re-rating from the market. I was just wondering if you can provide any thoughts on Williams cost of capital and any other updates or thoughts on family level consolidation if that makes sense?
Don Chappel:
Jeremy, this is Don. I think we have discussed that periodically in the past in terms of pros and cons. And we do believe that WPZ is positioned to improve its cost of capital. So you know we don’t have that here today and we can certainly talk more about that during Analyst Day.
Jeremy Tonet:
Okay, fair enough. Thanks.
Don Chappel:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Christine Cho with Barclays. Ms. Cho, please check your mute function.
Christine Cho:
Sorry. I just had two very quick follow-ups. The 80% swap at Geismar to Bellevue when does that roll off, if at all?
Alan Armstrong:
You know there is a multitude of contracts there Christine and so none of them – they don’t all start in, but typically they are not real long-term contracts that are established in that market. But there is a variety of terms on those contracts.
Christine Cho:
And then with the maintenance CapEx, I know you kind of addressed the regulated maintenance CapEx, but what about for the well connects, I mean if we are seeing a slowdown in drilling and completion could there be – could that number have come in lighter than you expected?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, slightly. But as Bob pointed out we have got a lot of catching up to do still. We are still working off of quite an inventory of getting caught up. So even if the drilling does slowdown we still – the well connects will still keep coming for quite some time.
Christine Cho:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Ross Payne with Wells Fargo.
Ross Payne:
How are you doing guys?
Alan Armstrong:
Great, how are you?
Ross Payne:
Good. I was wondering if you can give us a little more detail on the Geismar startup kind of getting pushed back into June, are there other issues outside of the heat exchangers that you talked about in Q4 and has anything really changed from Q4 to where we stand today in terms of trying to get it up fully to specs? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Yes. Thank you and appreciate the question. It allows us to spend a little bit, because we really haven’t hit that much today. And a couple of things I really want to point out there, one is that we did have the major equipment for the expansion up and running. And so and in fact as we sit here today we are utilizing many of the components of the expansion facility. So contrary to what probably you would be left to believe, it’s not like we have just got the base plant sitting over here running and the expanded plant is sitting idle. We are utilizing in this period a lot of the big elements like the furnaces for instance on the expanded facility. And in fact we had the major equipment up and rolling when we had this transformer fail on us. And so I think that’s very good news because we been able to test all of the major components. And in fact we are using this time period to put load test on the expansion parts of the facility. But at the end of the day this EBR system is what is bottlenecking if you will the production on the plant, on the ethylene side of the plant. And until we get that transformer back in then we can’t go on with the rest of the plant. So the good news is we are not sitting here wondering about the rest of the major equipment in the expanded plant. We have actually been able to utilize it and get it up and tested. And so really this is – I hate to – there is nothing simple in a big complex plant like this, but to try to put in simple terms, we have got the plant – the expanded plant has been up and tested. And it’s a matter of getting this transformer repaired at the manufacturer’s facility and getting it plugged back in. And we did run that compressor that this transformer drives and everything was fine with that compressor. And so it’s just a matter of getting the transformer plugged back in.
Ross Payne:
Okay. And in the last conference call you guys talk about the heat exchangers getting up to about 70%. Are you comfortable now that they can get all of the way up to 90% plus or are there other things that you need to do on that front? Thanks.
Alan Armstrong:
Again we have kind of had the luxury, unfortunately we have had the luxury of time in getting some of those things that lined up. And we have gotten – we had some fouling and some residue oil coating on some of those highly efficient exchangers and we have gotten those cleaned up and they are performing very well now.
Ross Payne:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you and that will conclude today’s question-and-answer session. At this time I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Alan Armstrong for closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Well thank you all very much. Appreciate all the great questions. And we certainly are excited about bringing all of these projects and we really look forward to talking to you in more depth here on May 14. Thank you for joining us.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today’s conference. We appreciate your participation.
Executives:
John Porter - Head, IR Alan Armstrong - President and CEO Don Chappel - SVP and CFO Walter Bennett - Senior Vice President, West John Dearborn - SVP, NGL and Petchem Services Rory Miller - SVP, Atlantic, Gulf Operating Area Robert Purgason - SVP, Access Operating Area Jim Scheel - SVP, Northeast G&P
Analysts:
Carl Kirst - BMO Capital Markets Ted Durbin - Goldman Sachs Abhi Rajendran - Credit Suisse Jeremy Tonet - JPMorgan Brad Olsen - TPH Shneur Gershuni - UBS Christine Cho - Barclays Capital Brian Lasky - Morgan Stanley Craig Shere - Tuohy Brothers Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Eric Genco - Citi Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Williams Partners LP Year-End Earnings 2014 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thank you, Tanisha. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams, and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our website www.williams.com. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong will speak to you momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel is available to respond to questions and we also have the five leaders of Williams operating areas with us. Walter Bennett leads the West; John Dearborn leads NGL & Petchem services; Rory Miller leads our Atlantic Gulf; Bob Purgason leads Access Midstream, and Jim Scheel leads Northeast Gathering & Processing. In our presentation materials you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we’ve reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Those reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the presentation materials. With that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great, thank you very much John, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us here for our Q4 and full year 2014 earnings call today. To begin with, I'd like to welcome a couple of new members of our leadership team and they are joining us today as John just mentioned by phone. First is Bob Purgason, who became Senior Vice President of our Access operating area in January, and just to remind you, Bob has been COO at Access since 2010 and before that he was here at Williams for about 19 years until 2006. So, the organization here at Williams is very excited to have Bob back and really looking forward to a lot of the leadership he is brining. Additionally, Walter Bennett is here with us, and Walter previously led the Western operations for Access, and in January he began leading Williams' Western operations post Allison Bridges' retirement. And of course that includes our Northwest pipeline area and all of our big gathering and processing out in the Rockies as well as we've added to that now the Niobrara area in Wyoming that ACMP had this built, and our team, the Williams team had collaborated to help bring that business up as well. So, we're really excited to have Walter's very strong operating background and strong technical expertise brought to our team out there in the west. Additionally, I would just tell you, there are a lot of great leaders that have come in from ACMP, and they really are contributing a lot to our organization and help us lead through this tremendous growth period that we've got going on here at Williams. So, really nice to see the teams come in together so nicely and so quickly. Moving on here to slide 2, and you'll see a lot of the major topics listed here on this slide that will hit on this short presentation, but this is the place I'd like to spend a little more time discussing the drivers of our new guidance and really the significant derisking that has occurred as we have dramatically lowered our planned commodity margins. We've lowered our fee-based volume assumptions, and we've got more conservative on our Geismar ramp-up schedule. So, here first on the commodity price deck, our new price deck is centered on a $55 WTI and $3 Henry Hub gas price, and we've tried to be conservative with the price decks that are largely below the forward curves for products like propane and natural gasoline, where we're along the commodity and below the forward curve where we are short like our natural gas and ethane. We believe this is certainly one of the most conservative decks being used amongst our peers in the industry, and overall this resulted in a 44% reduction in our planned commodity margins and commodity positions at WPZ, and this now represent only about -- this commodity price only about 12% of our gross margin is now exposed directly to the commodities. On the gathering volume side, we've assumed reduced activity on the assets with unprotected volume exposure. So, in those areas, we're directly exposed to volumes and in many case we're ahead of what the producers have publicly communicated to investors. In other words, we're trying to get ahead of the lowering of rig counts and making sure that we've got a good handle on what we expect, and in many cases where that hasn’t been publicly tried to get ahead of that with our own estimations. And fortunately though, I would tell you these impacts are only limited to a handful of our assets, and in the context of the new larger enterprise, the impacts we think are certainly manageable. So for example, our Northeast volumes are currently tracking ahead of our revised plan for 2015. On the Geismar ramp schedule, we have incorporated a much lower utilization of the facility over the first three months of the year, and this is going to allow for safe controlled ramp-up to full production. We’ve spent a considerable amount of time doing it safely and ensuring a very high quality asset, and we certainly don't want to try to make any shortcuts here at the last minute on that. So, very proud of the team there continuing to be very focused on safe and making sure when we do get up to full capacity that we've got a safe and durable asset there. A couple of offsets to the impacts of these more conservative assumptions do exist in our plan. First of all, the early in service for Transco projects on the mainline portion of the Leidy Southeast expansion and the Virginia Southside expansion, and I'll hit on more of this in just a little bit, so I won't spend any time there. And then finally, on the next, on the cost cuts, we do have some offset to some of the negative variances as we’ve stepped up our focus on really rightsizing our cost structure to match the reduced levels of activities in few of the regions. And so, while we've not specifically called out that number, I would emphasize that this can and will be a moving target depending on the ultimate levels of activity, and the production around our assets. But we certainly see an opportunity to offset some slower growth, and take advantage of the lower energy prices and materials in our own business because we certainly are exposed to energy and materials in our own business and a lot of those prices have come down. So in general, we're taking advantage of this low commodity market to position ourselves for a very strong consistent performance. And with many of the potential upsides that have been taken out of our guidance now, we still see a lot of those upsides out there, but we pulled a lot of that out of our guidance, and so as those occur, they will result in upsides to our guidance. But despite the significant derisking, WPZ still has one of the highest distribution growths amongst our peers, and this is driven now by approximately $4.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2015 which is further driven by fee-based revenues which make up about 88% of our gross margin. And then, we expect our EBITDA to continue to grow to about $6 billion on the backs of over $9 billion of fee based projects as we look forward to 2017. Moving on to slide 3, we can see here the key drivers of the fourth quarter and the comparisons to the fourth quarter of '13 along some of the mixed results that generated headwinds for us in the fourth quarter. So, this was certainly another very busy quarter for us as we undertook the commissioning of three very large assets. These assets are now ramping up to our expectations here in the first quarter and will be big contributors to our growth for the balance of 2015 and beyond. So, first now to hit on the WMB highlight, WMB received $515 million of distributions up from WPZ and ACMP and this was a 16% increase up $70 million. The higher distribution was supported by 30% increase in the fourth quarter adjusted segment profit in DD&A which was up $216 million to now $944 million there in the fourth quarter. So this large increase was certainly driven by the additional ACMP interest that we acquired in the third quarter of '14 and as well the associated consolidation of those interests. WPZ had mixed results for the quarter. We had some real positives and some real challenges as well. Ongoing mature businesses continued to perform as expected; however, we did have some delays and higher expenses in bringing on Geismar and along with lower commodity prices caused the quarter to come in lower than we had planned. So, now looking into each segment, the Atlantic-Gulf, strong underlying performance in Transco in the Western Gulf, but this was offset by some producer startups on the Keathley Canyon and Gulfstar facilities. These projects are now online and ramping up nicely here in the first quarter and really pleased to be serving our customers out there both the Anadarko's Lucius facility and the Hess' operated Tubular Bells facility up there. On the NGL & Petchem side, Geismar being offline versus an expected mid fourth quarter startup plus some LCM inventory adjustments that marks most of the products that we have for linepack and operating inventories back to a much lower market and so this is nothing new in terms of how we account for our inventories, but the sever downward move in NGLs caused a much larger than normal swing in this inventory valuation. We also saw some high expenses for the quarter associated with commissioning and repairs through our Geismar facility. In the Northeast we continue to ride the wave of strong growth in the Marcellus volumes with a 26% increase on a quarter-to-quarter basis and 28% increase in a full-year '13 to '14 comparison. However we did not hit our expected numbers in OVM due to a delay in bringing on some of the major well pads that producers were bringing on right at the end of the year, but we do continue and enjoy tremendous growth in this area and our current production levels in the Northeast segment as I mentioned earlier are ahead of a more conservative plan now for 2015. Southwest, the West really performed largely in line with what we've expected with the exception of the commodity prices which certainly clipped our NGL margins in the area. And this area has really held up fairly well despite of lack of drilling and as always our Northwest pipeline asset remained quite steady and in 2015 our plan has less than 15% of the company's gross margin in the west coming from commodity exposed contract. So, in the past as you know the west has always been an area of big commodity exposure to us and to some of our big processing facilities out there and because of the continued growth in our fee based business as well as the large decline in NGL margins now only have about a percent of that gross margin, actually a little less than that out West. So, lot less volatility as we go into 2015 at West. So overall, a noisy quarter for WTZ given several one-time and discrete events, but our underlying fundamentals are very strong they give us complements in our 2015 plan and certainly now on the ACMP side, ACMP produced another very impressive quarter. Fee based revenues were up 48% to $593 million and this was driven by a lot of new capital investments that delivered record gross gathering volumes of 6.5 Bcf a day, so tremendous accomplishment by the ACMP team there in the fourth quarter as well. Moving on to slide 4, talk about some of the milestones and the recent accomplishments here, that certainly give us a lot of confidence in our plan going forward. First of all as I mentioned Gulfstar won the typical startup issues I would tell you for the producers bringing on a lot of new big wells on to that platform, but it is looking like some ultimate upside to our original expected flow rates from the facility and so we're really pleased to see the way that's going and very excited about that investment. On the Transco side, another winner and another big increase in peak volumes on the nation's largest and fastest growing pipeline. With this year's peak a day here in January beating last year's record by 8% despite a very, very cold winter in January 2014. So, really just a lot of continued growth is driving that on the Transco system and that team continues to do a great job keeping up with all that growth. ACMP as I mentioned also hit another record volumes and this really a major contributor to this was the gathering volumes in the Utica and those fed into the 49% UEO processing JV there in Eastern Ohio and the latest train to come on line was the new Leesville plant. So, continued great exposure there to the growth in the Utica and really excited to see the way those volumes continue to perform. More recently, the big addition to our discovery partnership, the Keathley Canyon connector received first production from Anadarko at their Lucius platform and now as we move into March we expect to begin receiving much larger gas volumes from Hadrian field and so again, another huge accomplishment brining on that major facility out in over 7000 feet of water. Our Geismar restart has certainly been long awaited and we're excited to be where we are on that finally and it is, we are in the process of getting that lined out and we expect to continue to ramp up here in the end of February and our plan does really expect consistent full rate production until the very end of march and so we've derisked that as well and we currently are working to improve the ultimate efficiency of several of the heat exchanger systems before we can reach back for full production. But all the systems in the base plant have been activated and we've been able to fund that up to about 70% of load there on the base plant. So, we're very confident and where we are today on that it's really just a matter of getting those exchangers being able to operate up to their peak efficiencies. Our combined access and Williams operating teams came together on the new Bucking Horse plant in Wyoming right during the dead of winter and so, while we don’t expect this plant to generate a significant amount of cash flow, here in the near future, it was very important for our teams to get this plant online for the benefit of our new largest customer Chesapeake and it also demonstrated the clear benefits of integration between both Access and Williams personnel into one new organization out there. So hats off to that team that worked through the pretty touch winter up there to get that plant started up. Many of our recent expansions have involved along with other facilities modifications to the Transco mainline and so, this allows us to facilitate moving gas from the Marcellus and the Utica from the North to the South. And so, with two kind of projects in common here on this was first Virginia Southside which started up in December '14, the mainline portion did, not yet the lateral but the mainline portion started up much earlier than expected and that full facility of the lateral will come on in the third quarter of 2015. And then the same story on Leidy Southeast which in March of this year will bring on the mainline portion of the Leidy Southeast project and that also beats our expectations for that project as well. And together these projects will yield $50 million to $75 million of incremental operating profit in 2015. These are all fully contract and that's been approved by the FERC. So we are ready to put these into service and of course bringing on all this incremental operating profit wasn’t expected originally in those investments really gives a very nice boost to our original expected returns for those projects. And then finally, our Rockaway Beach lateral is expected to start up in either late March or early April and the team has been working hard to hold the schedule despite as a lot of you all know a very wet and cold weather there in the New York area. But really excited to finally bring that project to closure and being able to serve our big customer of their national grid. Moving on to slide 5, this slide really just provides a real quick snapshot of the different types of cash flow that make up our $6 billion of gross margin. And just to make a few points here, first it shows that now only 3% of WPZ's risk remains tied to the NGL margin commodities and the spread on NGLs and only 9% is tied to our olefins margin in both our Geismar and Canadian facilities. So, meaning 88% of our cash flows are now from fee based revenues here in 2015 and including nearly two-thirds of those that are under contract that have demand payments, cost of service with minimum volume commitment. So as we can see on the next slide our future growth is even less dependent on commodities as we move to slide 6 here, and this really shows that 99% of our $9.3 billion of growth capital that's in guidance are tied to fee based projects. So this slide really gets to the heart of our lower risk and growth strategy for the next few years. And as you can see the vast majority of this is tied to, even the fee based projects the vast majority is tied to the kind of business that are either on our gas pipeline system or in the ACMP area where we have a lot of protection from volume risk. And so lot of confidence and certainty from our perspective about how we go forward. So, while certainly commodity prices are and remain important to our business specifically here for the near term cash flows and coverage they really are not the driver of our growth. Our business strategy is built around natural gas volume growth and the demand for associated large scale infrastructure that are going to be required to build out as the natural gas and natural gas products markets continue to build on the back of a very low priced commodity. And as a result we're confident in our ability to deliver one of the highest rates of distribution growth amongst our large cap peers, despite the lower expected commodity prices that are not built into our plan. Moving on to slide on to slide 7, this slide just drills down into the known projects over this longer period. And so, I'm not going to go through each of these facilities, but one of things that I think we have not spoken very much about but is pretty impressive is the amount of exposure that we have to the LNG export facilities and in fact the Transco has connections that allow it to receive or deliver gas. But nearly every LNG import/export facility in the Gulf Coast and the eastern seaboard other than the Everett facility in Boston. Those LNG facilities include Cheniere's Sabine Pass, Exxon's Golden Pass, trunk lines like trialed [ph] Sempra's Cameron LNG, the Elba Island LNG and the Toe Point LNG [ph]. And as you know, we've talked in the past about our access to our Gulf Trace Project being a 1.2 Bcf a day commitment to Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility that's fully contracted and will start up in early 2017. But we also recently concluded an open season in December of '14 for the Gulf market expansion and this is designed to provide an additional 1.4 Bcf a day of firm transportation from station 65 going back to the West to points on the mainline in Louisiana and Texas and great progress there and we're in the process of negotiating the firm commitments from our shippers and that came out of the open season and it is anticipated that this could possible 1.4 Bcf a day of capacity could be in service as early as late 2018, so just continued tremendous growth on the Transco system, both on the market side and supply side. Moving to slide 8 here for the conclusion, certainly we're very pleased to have the PZ/ACMP merger closed and remain more excited than ever really, we continue to see tremendous benefits from the combined strength of this new MLP and we think it is the MLP to be exposed to amongst the large caps if you like the prospects of overall market growth of both natural gas and natural gas derivatives because clearly our strategy is very tightly focused on this opportunity. As we look to the PZ distribution growth, all of the issues I've gone through the day really drive to this and the revised outlook for PZ and WMB result in a new guidance of 7% to 11% annual distribution growth at WPZ through the '17 period with the midpoint of 9% and this really reflects the strength and the quality of our underlying assets with a growing coverage ratio of greater than 1.05 once we get through this first quarter and '15 ramp up period. So, not only do we think we have good growth there, but we are continuing to build coverage through period and so we're really excited that despite these much lower and a very relevant to our peers at very conservative price that we continue to be even at the lower growth rate at the low end commodity prices we're still at the high end of our large cap MLP peers. And so, even though this is slightly below the plan that we articulated at the time of the ACMP and WPZ merger, these level of growth in cash and coverage are indicative of the best-in-class large cap MLP. As we look at the WMB dividend growth we have also slightly slowed down our targeted levels of growth for WMB and this of course is driven by the lower price environment that we've forecast with a range now of 10% to 15% growth largely to match the underlying growth of cash flows coming up from the MLP. So just to highlight the stability of this business plan even under the low price commodity case we can grow WPZ at the 7% we talked about and continue to move over 1.0 coverage there at the low price and at WMB at 10% with additional layers of coverage index of 1.0 at WMB as well. So, we really like our position now with the distribution and coverage and we certainly like the underlying fundamentals that underpin that. So, overall we're very confident in this business plan. We think it's realistic. We think it allows us to continue to provide tremendous total shareholder return whichever commodity price environment develops as we go forward and in fact across all scenarios we have the best-in-class growth at WPZ and a top-tier growth at WMB with growieng levels of coverage across both entities. So, this continually building list of investment opportunities are very tightly aligned with our strategy. They give us great confidence in our future and continue to give us a very high quality long lived cash flows that we think are some of the highest quality in the industry and this is coming from our continually, very competitively advantaged assets. And so with that, I thank you for joining us and we'll turn it over for questions that you might have. Operator?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Carl Kirst with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Carl Kirst:
Thank you. Good morning everybody. I'll start maybe with the growth projects, and I'm just curious in the current market as you look to Canada, one of the things we were looking at was the PDH facility, I didn’t know if you'll be at the weaker Canadian dollar and perhaps some of the activity coming out of that area might be tempering down the investment costs, and perhaps you know, keeping that potential growth project still in advanced stages, as well as in third quarter, you guys were certainly opening up the possibility of Appalachian Connector, I didn’t know if we could get an update on that as well?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes sure. First on PDH, you are correct Carl, the fundamentals are actually improving there as we are seeing some, the signs of lower-cost coming in for equipment and vendors as we go out and are in the process of really tightening up our estimates on that. And additionally, that project is really built around the benefits of the logistics of taking low-cost propane right there in Canada and converting it eventually into polypropylene by our partner and being able to serve markets. So, we're basically just cutting down on a lot of rail logistics, and those things continue to improve. Propane prices continue to be a huge spread to Mont Belvieu, propane prices up there and we think that's going to continue for some time because there's not really any logistical answers coming out that will improve that any time soon. And so, we really like how that continues to unfold as well. And really just a matter at this point of getting contracts finalized with our downstream partner there that pulls a lot of that risk off of our shoulders from a commodity spread standpoint, but we really do like the fundamentals and they are certainly improving for that project. On the Appalachian Connector project, we are certainly still excited. We think the strengths of our market pool and the demand of our market, they are along the mainline is a real positive for us. There has, as you know, there's been some turnover in some of the properties upstream, and certainly with the lower gas prices, people are looking for creative solutions out of that area, and so we're certainly working with a lot of those customers both on the market side and the upstream side to try to bring those two together in a way that they can firmly support our project. And so, we're feeling pretty good about that, but it is -- certainly everybody is kind of, anybody in the energy industry right now is reeling a little bit in trying to get their forward-looking perspectives tend down before they make any major commitments, and so obviously that's where we stand on that today.
Carl Kirst:
Do you get a sense, and that's kind of where I was going to, do you get a sense that even as these continue to percolate, they've both been pushed back to the back half of the year if they do come together or how would you think about timing?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would say on the PDH project, it really is just we're going to be very, very careful. That's a big investment for us. We want to make absolutely certain that we've been, that we know exactly what our numbers, we get as many bids and estimates, solid estimates that are well engineered in the door, so the PDH project is more, just of us moving along at a pace that is focused on making sure we can execute on the project effectively rather than being in a rush on it. And so, that one is more driven by our own efforts and getting the contracts finalized than it is anything in the broader macro industry at this point. On the Appalachian Connector piece, I think that answers have got to come a little quicker on that, and so I think we'll be pressing in the next quarter to decide one way or the other on where we go with that, but in any way, shape, or form, I think we're going to position ourselves to benefit both our assets in the area, both our wholly-owned and some of our equity investments in making sure that we get good market attachment to those assets and as well making sure that we get the investments that are due to us for the downstream mainline expansions for that gas as well. So pretty excited about it, but we're not going to push a rope on that. We've got plenty of great investment opportunities, and we're not going to step up and take risk on that.
Carl Kirst:
Yeah, I appreciate that. One final one just for Don, just very quickly, I appreciate the WPZ equity as far as obviously retaining investment grade. Don, do you have any planned equity issuances in '16 and '17 at PZ in the kind of base case budget?
Don Chappel:
Good morning Carl. The PZ equity issuances in '16, '17 at this point is de minimus. So, it gives us capacity to really take on some additional opportunities since we see exciting opportunities develop.
Carl Kirst:
Thank you, guys.
Don Chappel:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Ted Durbin:
Thanks. First one for me is just on the balance of distribution growth, dividend growth coverage keeping PZ flat here it looks like in 2015, I guess how are you thinking about the right level there, especially given that you have a much higher mix of fee based cash flow?
Don Chappel:
Ted, this is Don, I'll just note that we felt we want to go in with a fairly conservative plan here in light of what happened in the marketplace. So rather than continue to boost the dividend or distribution during the year we set forth a plan that we'd hold it steady. And obviously if we see things develop to the upside we could change that, but we felt that we'd set a plan here that was more conservative and one that hopefully investors will agree that is conservative as well.
Ted Durbin:
Okay, great. Next one from me is just on Geismar, can you maybe quantify a little bit more closely how many pounds of ethylene are you actually planning to sell in 2015 or some sense of utilization rate you're looking for as we ramp up through the year/
Don Chappel:
Well, as I said really, you can call it about anyway you want to, but we are expecting very little here in the first quarter and then we would be at our typical run rates on Geismar for the balance of the year. And so that would be up against the expanded capacity and somewhere around 98% to 98.5% of that expanded capacity.
Ted Durbin:
Got it, very helpful, thanks. And then last one for me, it looks like you're no longer giving guidance by segment here. I guess I'm just wondering if you can give us any sense of versus the old guidance that you used to have of the different WPZ segments, how much plus or minus are we against those or will we start to get some more color there in terms of how the actual operating areas are performing?
Don Chappel:
Ted, this is Don, I'm sorry again, given as much changes we have here we took a little different approach this quarter. I would say that as we approach our Analyst Day we'll look at providing some additional information about, I'll note for you that we did take volumes down fairly substantially up in the Northeast at OVM as well as Marcellus, but some volume reduction from our prior growth expectations that is in the West. So hopefully that helps.
Ted Durbin:
That's helpful. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Don Chappel:
Thanks.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Abhi Rajendran with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Abhi Rajendran:
Hi, good morning guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Abhi Rajendran:
Just a quick question on the dividend illustration and outlook over the next couple years, obviously on the cash tax rate line, you're not paying anything for the next couple years. I think previously you talked about that kind of eventually rising up to maybe the high single digit, low double-digit sort of percentage, how should we think about that kind of looking beyond 2017 and then what that might mean for maybe long-term growth covers, et cetera.
Don Chappel:
Yeah Abhi, this is Don again. You know we had a couple of things change here since our third quarter guidance on this matter and cash tax rates are down substantially. A couple of key points there, one was the bonus depreciation, which again lowered our cash tax rates nicely and then as well the fact that income was lower also it kind of extended in the chart, the period of time although which some of these deductions will be realized. So, I think you can see there the cash tax rate is about zero through 2017 and in our footnote on that schedule you can see that we've disclosed '18 and '19 we estimated about 4% currently and obviously things will move around a bit, but as we continue to add projects or potentially even M&A that will have the tendency to push the cash tax rate down in '18 and '19 as well as perhaps periods beyond that. So again, some good news on the cash tax front.
Abhi Rajendran:
Hey got it and since you mentioned M&A, what are your thoughts on the M&A environment and possibilities? Are you continuing to look or are things sort of put on the back burner a little bit, you know, you guys deferred the drop of the NGL Petchem projects from WMB until bit later down the line. How are you thinking about that whole dynamic?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, sure, this is Alan. Thanks for the question. You know, I would just say we have a lot of acquisition opportunities that are where we have a preferential position to acquire and those are right down our alley and our knowledge base. So we wouldn't be taking a lot of risk where we are already know the area, know the asset, know the investments and so I would say those are probably first on the list for our capacity in that space. And but you know, we're going to be pretty prudent frankly and we like where we're positioned right now and think that as the cash flows really start to come through and people really see the strength of these investment opportunities we think we're going to be very well positioned to take on some of those transactions. So, I would say that's first, but I think one thing you can, we've certainly been consistent on as we stuck with our strategy very tightly on the acquisition front and have stuck to things that are very consistent with our strategy and so you should think about that as we go forward the same thing.
Abhi Rajendran:
Got it, thanks very much for the color.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Don Chappel:
Good morning.
Jeremy Tonet:
I know things have been changing really quick here, but I was wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more upon conversations you are having with your producer customers as far as their drilling activities in 2015 and if there's any way we can think about quantifying the risk of throughput through the legacy WPZ G&P assets that's a low end of guidance and that certain volume assumptions are different than the high-end or any help there will be great?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, just to kind of put that in context for you from where we were in the previous guidance period, we pulled well over $100 million out on that from those fee-based volumes and so we have dramatically reduced that and I would tell you the areas that are hardest hit and we think are going to be hardest hit and I would tell you we've been more conservative than some of the input we've had from some of our producers in many areas, but the areas that have been hardest hit were areas that were enjoying a big lift from liquids. And I think the gas market overall particularly the demand side probably doesn't appreciate all the nice benefit of continued supply that has come on the backs of high-priced liquids margins and with those pulled out of the space right now you know, we think that is going to dramatically retard drilling. And so if you're, I would say conservative and may be even bearish relevant to our peers about where we think liquids prices will be for the year then that also has you not being very bullish on people drilling for rich gas. And so I would say those are the areas that from our perspective are most affected not so much the dry gas, but really the richer gas areas are the ones we'd really pulled back our assumptions on.
Jeremy Tonet:
That makes sense. Thank you and just one last question on constitution if you could provide any updates there as far as how that's progressing?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure, Rory, you want to take that one?
Rory Miller:
Yeah, this is Rory. Jeremy, we've had some pretty good news in the fourth quarter. This is probably fairly well known, but just as kind of a recap, December 2 the FERC issued a certificate of public convenience necessity authorizing the constitution pipeline project. So that's a big milestone for the project. And then later on that same month on December 24, the New York DEC issued a notice of complete application on the project and sent out three public hearings that took place in that second week of January and they've set a deadline of February 27, 2015 to get all of the written comments and on the action that they are considering. So, we've been working very closely with the New York DEC, that's probably the next hurdle that we need to clear, but they're asking a lot of questions. I think they are very intent on doing their due diligence on the project and they've been very inquisitive, but we've been working very hard and very steadily to get them the answers that they need and put them in a position to issue that permit hopefully in a few months after the, month or two after the close of the comment period.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great, thanks for that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brad Olsen from TPH. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Brad Olsen:
Hey, good morning guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Brad Olsen:
I had a really kind of a financial structuring question, we've obviously seen Kinder Morgan take the step of getting rid of their MLP entirely and as you look out with the ACMP deal now closed and you guys have provided what I think is very conservative guidance versus you know, what market expectations are and you're still building coverage even in this conservative $45 scenario that you painted and yet, we still see WPZ trading a couple hundred basis points in several cases wider in terms of yield than a lot of the big cap MLP peers that its comped against. And so, I guess you guys have provided some interesting color in previous presentations in terms of kind of where you expect on a yield basis WPZ to trade based on its growth rate. It seems like that discount is persisting and I was wondering if you had thoughts on a) any kind of further steps that you can take to close that discount and b) if you still find that WPZ is not an effective financing vehicle or is just simply too expensive of a financing vehicle would you consider simplifying your structure and eliminating the MLP or folding it into WMB?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, I would just tell you. I think that's certainly a tool for us in the future, I think though right now right we've got a great plan in front of us and we do believe that as these big projects come on and really begin to generate kind of tremendous cash flow that they've got that we're going to see the market reprice that the WPZ currency. And so, we think that is yet to come and certainly with Geismar continuing to be down and the big Gulfstar and Keathley Canyon, Rockaway Lateral all these big projects really starting to kick up here for the balance of the year. We think that's going to give the market a lot of confidence. So I would say you know, we certainly understand that the benefits of that as a tool for the future, but I think right now we've got to execute on what we have and let the market retune itself before we make any further decision on that.
Brad Olsen:
Got it, thanks for that color, just one follow-up, as you look out into potentially heating up M&A market in light of the market dislocations that we've seen recently and you think about potential opportunities in the M&A market, would you be willing to contemplate using WMB as a consolidation vehicle given the fact that you've spent the better part of the last year getting WMB into a fairly streamlined General Partner HoldCo or would you be willing to wait for WPZ's evaluation to get more competitive in terms of an M&A currency before attempting to do anything?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I would just say I think both of them are fairly undervalued right now from our perspective and so I think I'm able to get them both in position, but I think it certainly would depend on the transaction as we move to that point then it will certainly depend on the transaction as to which one would be the more appropriate currency for that. So, it's nice to have both of them frankly because there are times when the co-op currency would be a much more favored currency than an NLP currency. And so we think it's important to have both of them right now and we like having both those tools.
Brad Olsen:
Great, thanks a lot for the color Alan.
Alan Armstrong:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Shneur Gershuni:
Hi, good morning guys. Just a quick follow up to actually to the discussion you just had with Brad, when you were thinking about it taken or whether it’s a tool in your chest further down the road, is it fair to assume that given the fact that you're effectively based on an earlier comment not a taxpayer at WMB through 2017 that it pretty much wouldn't make sense to even consider it until you actually become a taxpayer, is that sort of the way we should be thinking about that as kind of the first step in terms of whether you would consider taking it at all?
Don Chappel:
Shneur this is Don. I think the tool is one that we'll continue to look at and yes, we're not a taxpayer for many years. However, there are other attributes to the option, but again I think as Alan mentioned earlier we think execution is likely to cause WPZ to trade at a level that is appropriate given its opportunity set, the growth set and we think the relatively low long term risk that natural gas growth demand drives. So again, we'll just put that on the shelf. It is something we'll continue to study, but we think that execution is job number one and yes, taxes are something that would not be all that valuable for quite a few years.
Shneur Gershuni:
Great thanks. Okay, so just moving on to some of the questions that I had, first there's been quite a few announcements by many of the processors around the country of significant cost saving initiatives, some headcount reductions and so forth and I realized at the time of the merger you were very adamant about no headcount reductions, if anything you were looking to hire people and so forth. But I think more kind of in a different commodity environment today, I wonder if that thought process has changed at all and you are pursuing some sort of cost reduction strategies? Sort of I was wondering if you can sort of comment against what you're doing versus what the rest of the industry is doing?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, great question and we certainly are going to put a lot of pressure on costs and we do think that we've got a lot of room to do that and so certainly using the buying kind of into these lower material costs, costs on things like lube oil which as you can imagine is with as many spending parts as we have in our businesses is a big number for us. And so, we certainly are going to go after cost on that side. On the headcount front, I would say there are certainly a lot of those opportunities coming to us as we merge a lot of support functions. But I would say we still really need continue to preserve our strength on the operating and technical side because we do have a lot of growth on that front, but it is shifting around and we will need to shift some of those resources around to be focused on where the opportunities lie, but I would tell you we still are looking for great talent in the technical and operating side and we do see some opportunities on the support function side as we continue to consolidate the organization. So we are pursuing them aggressively I guess is the best way to say that and we do think that's quite a bit of opportunity around that.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay, and then a question about the dividend policy, last night you’ve effectively tempered the growth you said it in your prepared remarks reflecting the current commodity environment, is it also fair to say that this is somewhat of an affirmation that's no longer going to be kind of an idea or waiver type strategy in terms of how you sort of structure the PZ distribution and the Williams dividend policy or is it really just about the current commodity environment?
Don Chappel:
Shneur, we believe that WPZ is sufficiently strong to carry itself without requiring any IDRs. We initially designed it very stout coverage. Fortunately we have that stout coverage designed in and we used it, but nonetheless as you can see here we're building coverage back again in a way that we do not expect WPZ to need that reverse. And as Alan pointed out with 88% in fee-based gross margin with 30% of that coming from interstate pipes and another 27%, coming from ACMP and its cost of service contracts and MDC's, we have nearly 60% of our gross margin coming from either interstate pipe or cost of service MDC type revenue. So very low risk we think on relative basis cash flows, so again we don’t see a need for IDRs, we don’t think either the market puts enough value on those to make it worthwhile.
Shneur Gershuni:
Okay, that's fair enough and one final question just with respect to Geismar, I was just wondering if you walk us through where you are with ethylene production today and sort of the confidence that you know, it will be at full runway in the first quarter kind of like what are the hiccups or challenges that you're dealing with today that you need to get complete so that you can actually be at full run rate by the first quarter?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, well, I am going to have John Dearborn provide you a little more detail here, but I would just say in general as we started up the plant we hit a – we started seeing some inefficiencies and some fouling in our heat exchangers that are critical to reaching peak efficiency in a plant like that. And so rather than continue to be dogged with that, we chose to take those heat exchangers off line, stop sales on ethylene out of the plant for a while and get those heat exchangers cleaned out adequately to make sure that we could get back to absolutely full efficiency on the plant. So, and not continuing to try to run through that as we pull through startups. So that's really what's going on, that's not a big issue, it's just a matter of getting some of the residual fouling that had been sitting in those heat exchangers and getting then tuned up. But we have gotten the plant up and running. We've had all the systems up and running. We just weren’t hitting the efficiencies that we wanted to and so we're back getting that tuned up. And then the next step would be to bring on the larger expansion as well and so we think we've got that part of the plant ready to go as well and so that's what we'll be doing here for the next three weeks or so is tackling both those issues, but things are going well on that front and we're pleased with the way the work is going. John, have you anything to add?
John Dearborn:
Yeah, obviously Alan is very well informed on this issue of how Geismar is going. I think we should keep him well informed that way. The only think I would add is as we look forward, it's our intension that we bring the plant back notionally to the base capacity level that 1.3 billion pound rate and at that rate which as you heard Alan say earlier we've demonstrated now 70% of that rate already operating with nine furnaces, then we'll line up plants and will be absolutely certain that the plant is running stably and then we'll take the next steps to ramp up to the full capacity getting up into that high 90s operating rate against the full capacity over the subsequent few weeks. So that's the way we had it planned out and we're making very good progress of getting this heat exchanger cleaned and expect to turn the plant back over to operations next week and in a few days after that be back in the pipeline.
Shneur Gershuni:
Perfect. Thanks a lot guys, I really appreciate the color.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Christine Cho:
Good morning. I was just curious, you guys in the press release talk about the deferral over the planned drop down of the remaining NGL and Petchem projects. When are you thinking that that's going to be deferred, do you have a sense of an idea when that's going to be?
Don Chappel:
Christine, this is Don. You know, we didn't put a date on it, so it's not embedded in any of the guidance that you see here; however, I think I'll just say we'll be opportunistic about that, so we'll look to do that when we think WPZ has the financial capacity to do that in a real value creating kind of way with that capacity or with a combination of some debt and equity when the equity is trading in a way that we think is more appropriate. So right now I'll just say we'll be opportunistic and we'll deal with that as we see the right facts and circumstances line up.
Christine Cho:
Okay, and then my next question is a bit of an operational one. You know in a prior response to a question you talk about how you stripped out $100 million of margin tied to areas where there is obviously rich related drilling. If I am to think about kind of the Marcellus and you know, you've previously talked about Oak Grove coming on at the end of this year, is there really a reason for that to come on by this year? Can we defer that, I mean it doesn’t sound like Fort Beeler is going to be fully utilized this year, so can you just kind of migrate whenever volumes are dedicated to Oak Grove to Fort Beeler in the meantime?
Alan Armstrong:
Christine, actually Oak Grove is PXD 1 [ph] is up and running already and recall that that is where our de-ethanizer is and so we have both the processing train there and the de-ethanizer there at the Oak Grove facility. So for operational reasons it's good for us to have that up and running. I would tell you that again even though we pulled the upsides in the step that's not fully contracted out of our guidance on our forecast, there are a couple of very sizable packages of gas out there that we are extremely well positioned to capture, because we do have that capacity available. And so, I'm not going to get into specific customer names there, but I would just tell you we're extremely well-positioned to capture those because we do have that capacity available and so we're excited to have that Oak Grove capacity ready and available to serve those customers and we think we're going to build and capture that. There's quite a bit of gas that is just sitting there not flowing today because producers have had troubles bringing pads up. And so, I think as those come on and as we have an opportunity to capture some of that other gas out there we're going to be really glad we have that capacity available.
Christine Cho:
Okay, so no changes to at least a second chain of Oak Grove then the timing of that then?
Alan Armstrong:
That's right.
Christine Cho:
Okay, and then my last question is you know, we've always talked about potential to convert Geismar into fee-based with the customer. Given all the changes that have happened in the last couple of months, has this thinking changed or is the challenge really finding a counterparty to do it with?
Alan Armstrong:
No, I certainly don't think it has changed and we are certainly looking to really think about that from a shareholder value standpoint. Certainly if we were just looking at the PV or the cash flows as we think that having the commodity risks, especially as it covers our ethane processing risk, we think that absolute PV of those cash flows is probably better providing the commodity risk. However, given the beta and the volatility that that brings in from an investor perspective, we think there's some value to be had by lowering our risk. And so, it's a matter of finding that right trade-off. And as we said, as I said earlier the fact that we've got a much lower assumption and expectation right now on the commodity margin actually gives us a little more room to go do a transaction like that and so we certainly are very interested in that. And I would tell you that while they seem separate, the ability to bridge between somebody's needs on Geismar 2 and perhaps their more current needs from available production at Geismar 1 starts become the opportunity there. So we're still very interested in doing that and we think the current margin environment gives us a little more room to do that because we wouldn’t be coming out and having to lower our guidance so much if we weren’t able to convert that into fee-based.
Christine Cho:
Great, thank you so much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Lasky with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Brian Lasky:
Good morning. Just want to back in on Christine's question a little bit, you guys seen the appetite among producers potentially to convert to fee-based contract as they are looking to print more barrels and show more growth, is that something that they’re potentially open to in this tough environment for the right price level?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say that a lot of our business has converted to fee base. And so really the place that we have remaining exposure on a key pole basis as I mentioned is about a little less than 15% out West of our total gross margins out there. And so, I would say it continues to be an opportunity, but we structurally I would just tell you there are ways for us to keep the risk and for them to report the barrels. And so, that I would say we figured out and we’ve done a lot of that in the past for the producers report the barrels as an owned equity barrels, but we don’t have to really change the equity ownership of those barrels. And so, that’s always a discussion that we’re always interested in, I’ll tell you that we on the processing side we have over the years tried to contract for fee base when the margins are high. And take on the key pole when margins are really low and so, but just because we certainly believe in that cyclicality of the processing margin. And so, I don’t know that we’re really changed the perspective so much on that front.
Brian Lasky:
Got it and just on the Access business seemed like quarter-over-quarter a little bit more flat this quarter. Can you maybe just kind of talk about the trajectory you see going forward there and kind of what puts and takes are you seeing?
Alan Armstrong:
Bob, can you take that one please?
Robert Purgason:
Yeah, certainly Alan and Brian glad to look at, I think we didn’t feel we felt like we had a really good quarter actually and are seeing good volume growth in our Northeast areas, Utica very strong, still strong volumes in Marcellus, Eagle Ford volume is still growing as Alan noted, Niobrara coming up although whilst picking that up here in process. So, we feel very good about our performance coming out no integration impacts from that. And in fact or looking for the kind of growth that you saw in detail as Access standalone continuing and in fact accelerating with the Williams team.
Brian Lasky:
All right, thanks Bob, that’s helpful. And then finally Don, I was just wondering if you could maybe just speak to the kind of leverage capacity you think you have at the MB level, I mean in order to stay aren’t you rated up there? I mean then would you guys have any appetite potentially fund some projects of that level?
Don Chappel:
Brian, I think at this point in time we don’t have much in the way of debt capacity to volumes level. So, obviously as cash flows build and for past margins improve or build into that capacity. But today it wouldn’t be here that we have that capacity to do much of anything in the very near future.
Brian Lasky:
Okay thank you very much guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Craig Shere:
Good morning guys, thanks for fitting me in.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning, Craig.
Craig Shere:
Alan in response to Brian’s question about processing contracts you expressed the long-term contrarian view where you see the cyclicality continuing. On that note, in contrast to going to fee based to Geismar would you have the appetite for increasing the commodity exposure on the midstream processing to kind of neutralize some of your exposures on both ethane and also take advantage of that long-term cyclicality you are describing?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, great question Craig and I would just say that we certainly are not in the Olefin business for the sake of being in Olefin business and we see it’s a nice extension of our midstream business in a way to push through into those markets and keep those markets open. On the tail end and certainly we are working to try to be neutral on that ethane to ethylene spread we’re actually a little bit short ethane right now. If we were to turn on all of our ethane recovery capacity, obviously we’re very short right now, because we’re not recovering ethane anywhere. But if we wanted to turn on our ethane, if we were at full ethane production against the contracts we have we still would be a little bit short ethane. So trying to get neutral on that, but another way of getting neutral on that would be to and we’re into some T based contracts on the ethylene side and therefore reduce our length on ethylene and reduce and improve our balance between ethane and ethylene. So, I would say that’s more likely the way we would approach that.
Craig Shere:
Great that’s helpful and on the commodity deck for guidance on obviously very conservative. But the one area I had a question on and I understand that you don’t really have a long-term ethane markets that are useful. But if I’m not mistaken recent ethane-ethylene crack spreads are perhaps few cents below the full-year guidance if I’m not mistaken. Can you provide some color around Olefin’s margin expectations and market drivers you see as Geismar achieves more capacity?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, sure. Well, first of all, just want to tell you that on the ethylene side, remember that that is at a $55 oil price. And so, we think that ethylene price is very commensurate with a $55 oil price that we have in there. Also you obviously have to pay attention to the spread and not just the absolute price that we have in there would it sounds like you are focused on Craig. But the other thing that I think it’s missed sometimes in this is that we are actually at the netted price and remember that we produce in the Mississippi river market. And so while we certainly sell and exchange a lot of our product in the Mont Belvieu as well, we do have exposure to the Mississippi river market, which has been extremely short and there’s actually a lot of derivative production that’s been down in the area due to shortages. And so, you have to take that into consideration when you look at our proposed ethylene spread. And so, I think we feel pretty good as you look into the 2016 and 2017 timeframe you can see our ethylene price coming up, but you can also see that the ethane price is coming up right along with that as well. And so really again need to look at the spread I would say I’m pretty bullish. The ethylene market as we look out in next couple of years, because the growth that I think we're going to see in the economies and the lack of near-term productive capacity coming up, it’s pretty hard to argue there isn’t going to be quite a bit of pressure on those Olefin markets to the upside and lot of demand coming to that. So that’s what I would have to offer for you. I think we feel pretty good about where we’re positioned there and John is a great student of that space as well and I’ll John provide any additional comment you want to make.
John Porter:
And I, only one few other things to add up, first the lower prices are certainly expected to stimulate some demand, but also we’ve been looking at some recent reports that would say that we’re seeing slowing exports and increasing local demand here in North America for ethylene and ethylene to reproduce. And certainly the ethylene derivative market remained quite strong. The second point I would add for consideration here is that if you look at ethylene inventories, there are pretty much all time low levels to estimated to be about six days worth of production in inventory at this point in time. But remember that all those six days are not available to take advantage of a production mishap and nearly no one forecast production mishaps. So we think there are probably only about maybe three or four days worth of usable inventory they’re ready to make up for some production shortfalls. And certainly coming into the year we see a couple of crackers that are down now though we have a light turnaround season this year. And then lastly, I'd turn your attention a little bit further to the Louisiana market, today with the Evangeline pipeline shutdown and suffered some from reliability issues at the moment, the spot price premium between Texas and the Louisiana is in the $0.08 to $0.10 down range. I think as we bring our facility back in operations that will likely return to more normal levels, but we’re very well aware on some derivative capacity there on the river that is underserved, because of the combined outage of both Edmonton and Evangeline. So I think as Alan expressed and as I would confirm here we are generally positive as our guidance would suggest, so thanks for the question.
Craig Shere:
Very helpful, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Sharon Lui:
Hi, good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Sharon Lui:
Just a follow-up question on ACMP, maybe if you could provide some color on the organic growth opportunities and what type of CapEx is embedded in your guidance relative to the historical levels for the G&P business?
Alan Armstrong:
Bob, you want to take that?
Robert Purgason:
Sure, yeah Sharon, it's nice to hear from you. In terms of just looking at going forward you'll notice we had a good strong capital year this year and we’ve given I believe a three-year look out here in the new numbers. And if you compare those to our past guidance you’ll see some strength in capital over our older forecast just in terms of our thinking that there are still new opportunities coming. These assets have not been worked hard and we are seeing the kind of backfill that we’ve always talked into our capital not just dropping off the ledge when we finish this first round build out that arguably happened this year. So we still see good capital investment opportunity and as you know that drives earnings given our business model.
Sharon Lui:
But has that been, I guess the shift or change in producer's willingness to commit to like a contract under cost of service under the current commodity environment?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, these are not new contracts these are continuing to build on the footprint that we have already established. And are continuing to build out in these core areas like Utica and the strength that we’re seeing there in the Eagle Ford where, yes drilling softer, but there’s still good strong drilling going on and really just filling out our existing portfolio.
Sharon Lui:
Okay, great. And I guess just one question with regards to liquidity at WPZ, so post the merger, does the partnership have access to both credit facilities or is there plans to, I guess renegotiate with the bankers for one larger facility?
Alan Armstrong:
Sharon, we put a new larger facility in place effective as of the date of the merger as well as a supplemental liquidity facility. So we have abundant liquidity.
Sharon Lui:
Okay, and has the pricing terms changed?
Alan Armstrong:
The pricing terms are more in line with WPZs pricing given its historic WPZs pricing in light of the fact that we have a mid-BBB investment grade ratings. So the ACMP pricing really moved to the WPZ level of pricing and it felt a little better than it was in our prior facility.
Sharon Lui:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Eric Genco with Citi. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Eric Genco:
Hi, I just wanted to follow up a little bit on Craig’s question. When we look at the spot prices for ethylene, if I will get sort of the Bloomberg today, it looks like for Mont Belvieu you’re looking at $34.75 per pound. Is that the right number to be looking at and what is that now for the Mississippi River market today roughly?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, thanks for the question. Unfortunately, there’s not an awful lot of transactions happening on the Mississippi River. The few recent transactions that we saw came out to be plus about between $0.08 and $0.10 to that number that you see at Mont Belvieu. And as I mentioned in my commentary just a moment ago, at least I would believe that as we bring our plants back into service here through this early part of this year, we would probably see that differential climb to more normal levels. And those more normal levels range between $0.01 and $0.03, so if you are looking forward and it would be reasonable to expect those kind of differentials, but certainly and once again, we feel that there’s a pent-up demand over on the river that’s been lagging by our outage and the reliability of the pipelines getting ethylene to that market in recent past.
Eric Genco:
Okay that’s helpful, but the $34.75 that’s a good number that’s kind of the good number for ethylene pricing in Mont Belvieu as of right now?
Alan Armstrong:
It’s a good number whether all transactions happen at that level they’ll probably happen around that number, so yeah it’s a good number you are looking at.
Eric Genco:
And just, I mean just kind of to remind me, I should have this somewhere, but I just don’t it top of my head. If Geismar is running at say 95%, 98% or whatever the target is, what percentage of, I guess U.S. ethylene capacity would that be like? How much more is coming back onto the market?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, it’s around, it’s just under 4%.
Eric Genco:
4% okay.
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, right in that range, right.
Eric Genco:
Right and then my second question just switching gears I guess to Atlantic Gulf and I'm sorry if you touched on this, it looked like the other segment costs jumped pretty significantly there. I can understand that there’s going to be some, perhaps some startup costs associated with Gulfstar, I was hoping you could quantify that a little bit more? And then just try to understand if that’s what it is at Gulfstar, are there any revenues or any revenues whatsoever in the quarter from Gulfstar, inventory and charge or anything like that?
Alan Armstrong:
Well yeah, there were revenues in the quarter from Gulfstar. I think we had $19 million of new Gulfstar fees. We actually collected quite a bit more than that in really the second half of 2014. So we have the cash in, but based on the revenue recognition model that we’re using we kind of have to dose out those collected dollars based on the forecasted throughput through the facility. So our cash numbers are actually are far in excess of the $19 million that we took to earnings. But that will continue to grow and we are collecting a base fee or demand fee under that contract. And then there’s a usage fee as well as those barrels and those MMBTs of gas total across the facility. So that’s a fairly significant impact on revenues in the quarter. Also our Transco transportation revenues were up, fee-based revenues were up about $15 million. And there was some IT volumes and some short-term firm deals and as well as some seasonal volumes that we saw pushing that number up.
Eric Genco:
Okay, but is there something that kind of caused the, I mean is it really Gulfstar startup or how much of this is one-time to go from sort of 3Q number of $133 million above the some of the cash cost to say $160 million?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah that the quarter I would say is not really indicative of the year. So if you look at the year in total on the expense side we were right on our target, but if you look quarter-to-quarter, it looks pretty extreme. I’ll tell you what happened though if you remember the polar vortex that we went through Q1 of 2014, it was kind of an all hands on deck period for Transco we were sudden new records seemed like almost every day. It was a pretty severe environment and we saw almost all of our expenditures that we could push got pushed into the second, third, and fourth quarters. So just it was a game of catch-up all year and we just wound up loading a lot of those expenses into the fourth quarter. If you look at the year’s total, it’s pretty much right on.
Eric Genco:
All right this was helpful, thank you very much.
Alan Armstrong:
Yep.
Operator:
And our last question comes from Timm Schneider with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead your line is open.
Timm Schneider:
Hey guys just real quick, and first of all I appreciate all the color you gave on the ethylene markets that was super helpful. I think it is funny as your call was going on Axio filed for Private Letter Ruling for their MLPs, so you already got someone for your fee base Geismar ethylene I guess. I mean, so I just want to switch over real quick then to the Northeast. Can you just give us a little bit more color on what the exit rate maybe was at OEM? And then secondly, have any of the producers up there actually pushed back to you and kind of had some look, can you give us a break on any of these rates that you guys are charging us in exchange for it will keep the volume going?
Alan Armstrong:
Timm, sorry Jim Scheel, you want to take that please?
Jim Scheel:
Sure, you know as we spoke last time we were pretty bullish about ending the year around 400. That didn’t happen. We had a couple issues associated with some pretty significant CRPs that had some operational issues associated with producers actually having a much richer liquids content. So we’ll expect that volume to show up later in the year as we install the equipment necessary to handle that quality issue that we faced at the end of the year. So we ended just over 300. We have been talking to our producers and as has already been talked about it, that number of different times we have a much different expectation for growth around OVM, but it is continued growth, it’s just at a slower rate. We have had discussions with producers about renegotiation of agreements and that’s not to go not without opportunities for us to improve on the base agreements that we had achieved with Cayman and negotiate some better terms. But at this point, those are just preliminary discussions and we have not made any commitments to make any changes, but obviously if we can create a win-win position with our producers we will be open to those discussions.
Timm Schneider:
All right, super outlook, thank you guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
And it appears we have no further questions at this time. So I would like to turn the program back over our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, great well thank you all very much, very excited about our future and really like how we've repositioned ourselves here and derisked our forecast substantially and yet still tremendous growth in distribution. And we think, best months it appears, considering our conservative forecast. So, thank you very much for joining us and we look forward to talking to you in the future.
Operator:
That does conclude today’s program. You may disconnect at anytime.
Executives:
John Porter – Head, IR Alan Armstrong – President and CEO Don Chappel – SVP and CFO Rory Miller – SVP, Atlantic – Gulf Operating Area Jim Scheel – SVP, Northeast G&P John Dearborn – SVP, NGL and Petchem Services
Analysts:
Shneur Gershuni – UBS Christine Cho – Barclays Capital Abhi Rajnandan – Credit Suisse Brad Olsen – TPH Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Timm Schneider – ISI Group Chris Sighinolfi – Jefferies Jeremy Tonet – JPMorgan
Operator:
Welcome to the Williams Partners and Access Midstream's Third Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir
John Porter:
Thank you, Tina. Good morning and thank you for your interest in Williams, Williams Partners, and Access Midstream Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on each of these three company's websites. These items include yesterday's press releases and related investor materials including the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong will speak to you momentarily. Our CFO, Don Chappel is available to respond to questions and we also have the four leaders of Williams operating areas with us. Jim Scheel leads our Northeast area, Allison Bridges leads our west area, Rory Miller leads our Atlantic Gulf area, and John Dearborn leads NGL & Petchem services. We also have Mike Stice, Dave Shields and Bob Ferguson joining us from Access Midstream Partners. In our presentation materials you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we’ve have reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Those reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the presentation materials. So with that, I will turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Good morning and thank you, John. Thanks everybody for joining us today. As usual, we have got a lot going on as we continue to pursue this tremendous growth that our strategy continues to deliver. We’re coming off a quarter here that was in-line with our expectations, but much lower at WPZ due to Geismar's extended outage and a continued heavy capital investing period all as was expected. But certainly, we’re looking forward to a much better quarter coming here in the fourth quarter, as some of our major projects start to come online and we see some dramatic improvements in volumes in the Northeast. A major change is afoot as we combine both WPZ and Access into the large scale natural gas infrastructure MLP. And the team here at WPZ is very energized right now as we’re on the verge of a major $1 billion boost in our annual cash flows that we expect to come from three major projects Geismar, Gulfstar and the Keathley Canyon Connector all of which have reached the commissioning stage here in the fourth quarter. We also are very excited to see volumes and profits beginning to rapidly escalate in the northeast operating area as many projects have been commissioned here in October and provide a little more detail on that later. The Access team continues its great performance as we have all come to appreciate this team's ability to steadily grow its volumes and cash flows as it connects gas supplies in some of the most prolific basins in the U.S. And we also are continuing to see major potential Transco projects coming our way as a result of Transco's competitive advantages. These new prospective projects include the Appalachian Connector and the Diamond East projects, both are major new projects that connect the burgeoning supplies from the Marcellus and Utica directly to growing demand on Transco that is anxious to see the supplies coming their way as those markets strive to grow as well. And of course we continue to have a long stream of projects that are under construction that will keep this well identified fee based cash flows continuing to grow throughout our guidance period and beyond. The major changes that will be occurring within the new merged partnership are exciting in many ways. First, we will have the highest forecast distribution growth rate of any of the major MLPs. Second, our coverage will be above average for the same peer group with expected $1.1 billion of excess cash flow coverage through 2017 and the Access cash flows, along with our major new fee based projects continue to dramatically reduce exposure to commodity prices. The Access LP holders are about to see a 50% step up in distributions to $3.65 in 2015 versus the forecasted $2.42 per LP in 2014. So truly a very exciting time here as we merge these MLPs and really turn this into the MLP in the major integrated group and particularly one that is well-positioned as we have talked about before with its strategy that is so focused on natural gas. So there are many changes occurring as these major tailwinds form and this first big tranche of capital finally begins to bear fruit in a very game changing manner against the traditional WPZ assets. But what has not changed is our commitment to a strategy that we strongly believe will be the most enduring growth model amongst the infrastructure MLPs. We have worked in a very disciplined manner to have this strategy of connecting the very best natural gas supplies to the very best natural gas markets at the center of all of our portfolio and capital allocation decisions. So we continue to stick with the strategy that we are very proud of and we think has positioned us for great long-term growth. The strong and undeniable fundamentals of low-cost clean energy and the cheapest petrochemical feed-stocks in the world will prevail we believe and we’re seeing the demand pool beginning. We have continued to position ourselves in a way that will catch this very sustainable and fundamentally supported wave of volume growth and at the same time, help our customer base achieve their lofty goals of growth as well. We appreciate all the support and patience from our investor base as we’ve had some bumps and bruises along the way getting to this as we have pursued this very ambitious plan. And we’re thrilled that many of you are well-positioned to catch this next big wave of valuation growth at both WMB and at the partnership level. So now let me quickly point out a few things in the prepared slide deck here beginning on page 2. You can see here just an overview of what we will hit on today most of which I have touched on already, so let's move on to slide 3. On slide 3, as I’ve mentioned in the opening WPZ's DCF was low, but was in-line with our expectations. Major drivers of the lower DCF was a missed opportunity on Geismar of over $200 million. So that's the number if we would have been up and running that we predict here in the third quarter, and higher maintenance capital as expected and was forecasted for the quarter. So this is really the time of year that a lot of our maintenance capital gets done. As you know, we had lower than expected maintenance capital for the first half of the year and we started to catch up with that as we usually do during the third quarter. Also we had some outages in Canada, particularly from some Suncor outages and we also had a planned turnaround at our Redwater facility where we made a lot of the significant tie-ins for our CNRL Horizon project which lowered volumes there in our Canadian assets as well. Also we had slightly lower than last year adjusted segment profit plus DD&A was just off of last year. This was driven by lower NGL margins and this was really driven as the result of a loss of the keep-whole processing contract up at our Opal facility. And thankfully though, this was largely offset by about $36 million in higher fee based revenues in the quarter on our consolidated assets and operated assets. And at the same -- we got the same kind of very positive move in our equity investments in both Discovery and Laurel Mountain Midstream. You should really continue to expect a lot of great things coming from these equity investments across the board really here in the fourth quarter; Blue Racer Midstream is continuing to see great Utica volume growth. Our Discovery system gets the Keathley Canyon Connector started up and the Laurel Mountain Midstream benefits from our increased ownership which has now moved up to 69% versus 51% in the third quarter. Also as you can see on this slide, ACMP's adjusted DCF was up by an impressive 42%, driven by 20% higher fee based revenues and so this all combined for WMB, these Partnership holdings now produced a segment profit plus DD&A of $838 million which was 36% higher than the third quarter of 2013. So, really starting to see some great distributions out of PZ as always and now an increasing amount coming from Access. Moving on to slide 4, you can see some of the operational highlights here for ACMP and starting with a big milestone of 6 Bcf a day of gross gathering volumes which the team hit in September and also ACMP's 49% interest ownership in UEO continues to increase in importance. And this really well-placed infrastructure that’s referred to as UEO is serving the rich Utica volumes and the volumes continue to expand rapidly up there and now two new trains planned. One planned to start up later this year and one planned to start up at the end of next year. And also great work by our Access teams, getting the Bucking Horse plant started up in Niobrara. That’s planned for later this year and I'm really proud to see the way our Williams and Access teams are working together. As you know, we’ve very substantial processing operations at Williams in Wyoming and then very thankful to see our teams working so well together to help bring up the Bucking Horse plant up there to serve the Niobrara. So overall net volumes on ACMP are up 9%, and as you can see where the high performers are in this list that drove that growth with of course the Utica being the star of that. Moving on to slide 5, looking forward a little more now, and we expect to see the fruits of Williams' major capital projects really starting to kick in here in the fourth quarter of 2014 and in a very powerful way in 2015. In fact, these three projects alone are expected to produce nearly $1 billion in 2015 cash flows and to put this in perspective, these three projects should drive a 33% improvement over WPZ's expected segment profit plus DD&A for 2014 and during 2015. So huge driver coming from these three big projects, and we will also have an even larger impact on DCF because a lot of the financing of course the financing costs have been carried for a large portion of 2014 on these projects, as these have been very long dated capital projects. And these assets have had really very little -- they have had very little planned maintenance capital for 2015. So a huge driver of DCF in 2015 as well. We also have several other recent milestones and achievements listed. All of these would normally be big deals, but we have so many developments, it really is getting hard to give them all their due bandwidth, but just to provide some details on a few of these items. The Geismar rebuild and expansion project is complete, and we have begun to bring hydrocarbons into the plant this week, and start-up operations including the final dry-outs of the primary systems. And then once those dry-outs are completed, the actual cracking processes will be initiated later. I certainly want to just take a moment, and thank our team there at Geismar for their intense focus on doing this project safely. It has been a very large and complex project, and they have remained very focused on no matter how much the pressure is to remain safe, and keep that first and foremost and I'm thankful for both their leadership and management there at Geismar for keeping that front and center. On Gulfstar, we are complete with our work, and Hess is now running the spar. They announced yesterday that they plan to have first oil within the week, and this project team also achieved first quartile safety performance on that project. Tremendous effort, to bring so many different skill sets and capabilities together to get that project delivered, and we are very thankful to be getting to work with Hess and Chevron on delivery of this major asset as well. And then the Keathley Canyon connector has been fully hydro-tested, and is now in the dewatering mode. Anadarko will control the timing of this first production which they and we still expect later this quarter. Our Constitution project reached a major milestone last week, and this was the receipt of the final environmental impact statement for this project from the FERC and this gives the Commission the green light to approve the project as designed, and we are pushing for a November order from the Commission. And of course, they certainly understand how important it is to get this project up and moving, so that we can reduce some of the bottlenecks and constraints of getting gas supplies up into the New England states for the winter of 2015 and 2016. Our Transco team has just continued to knock it out of the park in the areas of business development and we had two very successful open seasons in the period, and we continue to string together both important base hits which we just continue to have a number of laterals and expansions off the systems and the occasional grand slam like the Atlantic Connector project that is significantly larger than even the massive Atlantic Sunrise project. And I will hit on that a little bit more in a minute. On slide 6, you can see the continuing list of projects that we continue to click off on the left. And on the right, potential projects are being added so quickly, it is really getting hard to keep this slide up to date. You will note that we had to move the Rockaway lateral into the first quarter of 2015 due to some construction environment difficulties that we face there. However, even more offsetting this, we expect to place portions of the Leidy Southeast and the Virginia Southside project into service earlier than planned. So, great job there of the team, continuing to be innovative in ways to bring some of those projects on earlier where the environment allows us to do so. We also expect to be able to move our Canadian PDH project into the firm category later this month. We will still have a few contingencies related to third parties on that, but we will have our feed study completed for PDH-1 and we will be going for final Board approval here in November. So, great progress being made on moving those projects along as well. On slide 7, we’re going to provide some detail now here on the really exciting Appalachian Connector project and we’re not disclosing the actual capital on this project at this point, but we do expect this to be at least 50% larger than our Atlantic Sunrise project, so very large scale project. It involves a major greenfield line that you can see coming out of the panhandle of West Virginia, the northern panhandle of West Virginia down into a connection there in Virginia and then a major expansion along the system to be able to move those supplies into the various markets both to the north and to the south. Actually all the way to station 65 which is zone 3 on Transco and of course, from station 65 you’ve access to both growing industrial markets as well as access to many of the expanding LNG facilities in the area. So really that is coming together. And that really helps us be the supplier for the LNG projects that are being developed along the coast as well on Transco. So the support from these shippers has really been tremendous, as this is one of the few projects that delivers gas to the actual markets. And so, this really gives an ability to a producer or supplier to really go get the highest price because they have so many options of where they can sell their gas and they can really go to the highest bidder for their gas by having so many multiple market options along the Transco system. Really this is a tremendous value proposition to have all these -- the direct access to all these growing markets on Transco, not just existing, but really growing markets and we also are excited to see the confidence that the producers behind our Ohio Valley Midstream system. And our investment in Blue Racer, the great confidence we are seeing from producers there in growing their volumes out on the system as well. And so that connection that we like to really stress about being able to connect the very best supplies, to the very best market outlets, this is just another great example of that. Of course, you saw that with Atlantic Sunrise coming out of the Susquehanna County area and now we’re able to basically do that in the same way, coming out of the southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and southeastern Ohio areas. So our gathering business really benefits from this because it would have the best market outlets out of the area. And of course, our market end customers get access to these great prolific upstream supplies. So really a win-win-win and really shows the strength of our strategy. Moving on to slide 8 here, really exciting drivers for getting the merged MLP into the very, very strong and offensive posture and getting our 2015 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 billion. As I mentioned earlier, a 50% move-up in the distribution for ACMP unit holders from the 2014 guidance and a 30% increase over the 2015 distribution guidance. So we will have the best-in-class distribution growth at 10% to 12% through 2017 and with a very strong coverage ratio at or above 1.1 and about $1.1 billion of excess cash flow through 2017 that we expect to generate off of this strong business growth. We also will enjoy strong investment grade credit ratings and very limited equity needs up against this current business plan, because our cash flows continue to grow, continue to expand our debt capacity very rapidly. So really excited about how we have got this merged MLP positioned. It is strong from a strategy standpoint. It is very strong from a capability standpoint, and now financially extremely well-positioned for the environment that we are in. Just to talk very quickly about a few of the synergies that we are seeing. One of the things we are really excited about is really looking for the very best capabilities exist between the two companies. One of the areas that we are really seizing on very quickly is Access' well-honed, modular compression design. And so we’re looking at that to be a major savings for Williams here, as we look to see the cost and the scale frankly, that we gain by having all of the compression installation that both parties do, and being able to really be the low-cost provider of getting in that the field, in a very quick way that serves our customers. So great capabilities there by Access, that Williams is very rapidly adopting. Likewise, up at the Bucking Horse plant as I mentioned earlier Williams of course has great strength in the operations of processing facilities and we’re very rapidly bringing those alongside Access and helping them get that plant up in a safe and reliable manner and then one other area that I think is really impressive for us is the Access North Victory system that lies just to the north and east of our OVM system is going to be the beneficiary of -- provided that the transaction goes through, of Southwestern Energy's acquisition of Marcellus acreage in that area. And we think that bodes very well in terms of having a new buyer in the area that is very excited about that acreage and who has got the capital to bring to that. And of course, that system ties into our OVM system, and ultimately then would have access into the great Appalachian Connector project. So great example of how we are stringing together the synergies of our assets up there. Moving on to slide 9, this is really impressive picture of valuation here at the new merged MLP. And so, what you have here is regression analysis between the distribution growth rate and so, we have got the merged MLP here marked at 11%, and then on the Y axis you see the current yield. And of course, this shows that on a regression analysis basis that the merged MLP should ultimately trade out at a sub 4% yield, even at that yield, on this line you would see a $94 unit price for the merged MLP. And frankly, we think given the coverage ratio which is just above the average for this group, the strong credit rating that we have and the tremendous strategy and clear line of growth. We think we actually ought to be trading below this line on the regression analysis. So really excited to see this valuation coming through and we think the market is waiting to see some of these things like Geismar and Gulfstar get done and those start to cash flow, and so we think we are just on the verge of realizing this kind of value at our MLP. Moving on to slide 10, a tremendous opportunity with Williams, we just couldn't be better positioned right now, very excited to have delivered a 32% raise in our WMB dividend and following that with a 15% dividend growth rate through 2017. So tremendous value that we’re able to deliver for our shareholders and I don't think anybody doubts the amount of growth that we have out in front of us. And I do think obviously, there has been concerns over our ability to execute and bring some of these major projects on-line and we’re just on the verge of passing that stage. And then we continue to have a number of very large scale projects going forward. Also very excited to see the very strong capabilities of Access and Williams coming together from a leadership perspective and from an operating capability standpoint, very solid alignment, I would tell you, between the values of both of these companies. And I want to take a moment, and thank Mike Stice for his tremendous leadership at building such a great organization with great values. And we’re just very thrilled to be able to working up alongside Access and taking some of the best ideas that they have to offer and bringing those in to Williams and as well, excited to have the new team there at Access all pulling on the same rope. So with that, we will turn it over to questions. Thank you.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions). We will go to our first question with Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Good to see the progress that you have made with respect to coming to an end and putting forward the Geismar project and in closing up the merger. I was wondering if we can sort of transition on some questions more on a go forward basis, with the merged ACMP/WPZ combination, you’ve sort of mentioned in the past a high percentage coming from revenue. When you think about the 2015 guidance can you share with us some of the sensitivities around NGLs and that margin you have baked in -- in terms of the low and the high-end of guidance in terms of how we should be thinking about the commodity environment?
Don Chappel:
The combined MLP will be more than 80% fee based since all of the Access business is in fact fee based and much of it under cost to service or MVCs. There is really no direct commodity exposure there. So I think you can look solely at the Williams -- and if you look in our data back on slide 85 you can see the sensitivity of the price changes on commodities. Again I think we’re fairly diversified on the commodity front. It will represent less than 20% in 2015 and that percentage will likely continue to decrease as we grow the fee based business much more rapidly than the commodity side of the business.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
And as a follow-up, I recognize the fact that you're expecting about a beds of cash flow coming in with some of the new projects slated to come on-line late this year. How do you think of your leverage funding for the next several years as you sort of think about the big capital projects and so forth? The expectation to fund it kind of on a 50:50 basis? Just wondering if you could give us a little color and how you think of your current leverage.
Alan Armstrong:
We would expect the merged partnership to maintain its kind of mid-BBB investment. Somewhere around four times debt to EBITDA on an adjusted basis so I think that will be the guide post. We think the business plan that we put forth with the $5 billion of EBITDA and the 10% to 12% growth rate through our guidance period that ends in 2017 can be financed with a very modest amount of equity. Obviously we’ve many more opportunities in front of us. Alan highlighted a couple of major ones. I would point out that those are fairly long lead time items so something like the pipelines that Alan mentioned would kind of service dates the financing for those is really out principally in 2017 and 2018.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Finally on the Constitution Pipeline, if I saw correctly you have requested to get the final sign-off within the next 30 days or so. If it takes longer than 30 days, does that delay the project due to weather issues and so forth? And also I was wondering if you can comment about whether you think the length of pipeline will deviate much from the current plan.
Rory Miller:
Well, the timeline right now as it sits is very tight. We’re hoping to get the FERC certificate on for Constitution Pipeline in November. If that happens, then we will be looking for notice of completion from the New York in December [ph] -- along that same timeline. It is a very tight schedule, but if we get the kind of responses that we are hoping for, and we think are possible, then we can still make the heating season of 2015-2016. We do have some major delays. If we have mullet tie month delays, then that heating season won't be possible. So there is a chance that we could get pushed beyond that but we are trying to be very clear with everyone involved I think the need for the gas is definitely there. We saw that with the polar vortex last heating season. And I think we’re just trying to get the message out to let people know what's at stake. It is going to take some cooperation but we think we've got a good shot at it.
Operator:
And we will now go to Christine Cho with Barclays Capital.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Regarding the Southwestern purchase of Chesapeake with Southwestern it is going to 11 rigs compared to Chesapeake's one. I know it's early days and the deal is not even done yet and we don't know where the rigs are going to go, but can you give us an idea of how much undedicated acreage is -- that subpoena for grabs overlaps your footprint? Then you kind of mentioned this in your prepared remarks, but given ACMP at one point was Chesapeake's MLP are there opportunities for you guys to process the gas that ACMP has the dedication for on the gathering side or is that already committed to other players? Can you just give some more color on your synergies there?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure, Christine. We can provide you the detail you're looking for there today. I would just tell you that there is a very substantial amount of gas that is available for processing from Chesapeake and potentially now Southwestern. So, I would just tell you there is a lot of acreage there that needs processing, some gathering and processing services and I would just say that we are very well positioned for both of those 0.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, with the recent correction in the mark, we saw a number of deals get announced and obviously Access to capital markets is pretty key in this space. And just add a brief (indiscernible) that maybe non-investment grade MLPs might have trouble raising capital, and if we see some more of these big companies spinning out with mull till billion dollar backlogs with drop-downs. I would think some of these private equity players hoping to monetize their investment maybe the IPO might have trouble competing with something like that. Has sentiment of potential sellers changed from where you sit? Can you kind of give us an idea of what you’re seeing on the M&A front?
Alan Armstrong:
I would say that it has varied. Obviously some of the smart money I would call it decided to take some risk off the table of that early and get out while the getting was good and I would say that sentiment is probably becoming more pronounced. I agree with the concern you raise and I do think that we will see some movement in that direction, because I don't think anybody wants to be left being the guy that was too greedy waiting for any more increase. I think people appreciate the market is pretty hot and so I do think we will continue to see a lot of assets coming out of the private equity sector into the market. And I think they will start to appreciate how much quality IPO there is that has some pretty major advantages over less substantial offerings.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, and then I guess kind of piggybacking off your response to that, I think you guys are now sitting on an option to enter into the Permian. Deal size isn't too big, multiple looks attractive, although you probably have to spend a couple hundred million to get there. You’ve the parent of a potential partner behind this system. However, you’ve previously said that you would like to be number one or number two in a basin. Are there any initial thoughts you can provide us, and is this an area that you would be interested in growing into?
Alan Armstrong:
We’re not going to respond on exactly our position on that. We’re just not at liberty right now to discuss that. However, I would say that we have been looking at the Permian from a business development standpoint, particularly the Delaware basin for quite some time. From a Williams side, we've had a lot of producing customers that are customers elsewhere that have been interested in us providing services in the area where there is not much infrastructure and certainly we’re not interested in going into areas that are already well served, but I would tell you there is a lot of that basin that is not well served and we’ve been looking at it that and I would say we would like to enter it in a way that. One, it is well supported from a financial perspective and two that ultimately we get to a scale position that has competitive advantages and provided that we can accomplish both of those tasks, then yes we would be interested in entering the basin. But those are two pretty lofty goals in terms of making sure that the cash flows are well supported and that we’ve a clear line of sight on gaining scale and competitive advantage the way we usually enjoy in a basin.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, last question for me, appreciate all the color. One of the competing pipes for your Appalachian Connector project, you know recently announced it was moving forward at least to station 165. Is there room for both projects? Or do you think yours is different and off because it provides a clear route to station 65? And then when you also say it's 50% more than Atlantic sunrise, you mean 50% of what the CapEx is for the 100% interest or just your interest?
Don Chappel:
On a gross basis, it's 50% more as well. So you can use either number because we said more than but even more than a gross amount. In terms of the advantages of that project, I think it is almost two different projects frankly because I will tell you the strength of the Appalachian Connector project is that it does not just get you to station 65, it allows you to go directly to those LBC interconnects, directly to the town borders, directly to those markets. And so rather than sitting at a pooling point and being stuck with gas that you have already paid a rate to get there. You don't really have any options but to sell it at that point, you can go to multiple marks and you can go cut deals with people who want to have growing supplies on their system. So I would just tell that you is the distinction. It is very major distinction and as to whether there is room for both, I would just say that I think our shippers are speaking for themselves -- can't really speak for the other project, but I would just say given the way the response we have gotten from the shippers that are interested in our project, that would tell me there is room for two, I guess if the other project has economic support as well.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Is the shippers for you guys mostly producers?
Alan Armstrong:
It's a mix, pretty substantial mix just like we have seen in our other big projects like this.
Operator:
And we will now go to Abhi Rajnandan with Credit Suisse.
Abhi Rajnandan – Credit Suisse:
Couple quick questions, in the northeast segment EBITDA was actually down sequentially in the third quarter. I believe there were some one-offs included in the results, but could you help us think about some of the factors preventing maybe a quicker ramp-up in the profits in the segment and how we should think about that trajectory looking ahead from 4Q and then into next year?
Jim Scheel:
As we look at the third quarter this year, let's take a step back and talk a little bit about volumes. During the last earnings call we talked about the number of wells coming on line. We actually had eight wells delayed during the third quarter coming into the OVM system. That was obviously a disappointing issue for us, some producer issues. But we see those coming on-line pretty quickly, and we have won a site to 35 more wells coming on line over the course of this quarter, two of which are dry Utica wells. So as we look at our exit rate for the year for OVM, we are very excited about the opportunity to continue to see a very robust fourth quarter. That would be combined with some additional fee based revenue coming from all of the new assets that have come on-line. Obviously I have been disappointed by and the delay in bringing on the stabilization facilities as well as CXP 1, but we've had a lot of assets coming on-line, and just getting that all put together has been a pretty big issue, keeping that as safe and as efficient as possible has been our high priority. So those are coming on line as we speak. We've got commissioning activities coming on today that will also improve earnings coming into the fourth quarter. We've also seen pretty much the completion of a major expansion around the Susquehanna supply hub so volumes there have increased since the close of the third quarter by about 200 million a day and we are excited about the continued increase there. So we've got a great trajectory for future growth. Then when you combine that, one of the things you wanted to reconcile to was the third quarter. As we think about that, we had some kind of -- I won't call them extraordinary but we had some income from Cayman associated with the fire, and then one of the other changes that we have to be aware is with Laurel Mountain Midstream, we have a percentage of gas. Gas prices have been down for the third quarter and so we've seen a hit from that as well. So if we really look at earnings growth going forward, taking out those two things, we still see a nice improvement as we look forward to the fourth quarter and into 2015.
Abhi Rajnandan – Credit Suisse:
Shifting gears to Geismar, could you give us some color on the ramp-up there over the next couple of months? When do you guys expect to kind of get up to commercial levels of production, and then when could we potentially see operating rates up in the 90s like the rest of the industry?
Don Chappel:
From where we stand today, as you saw in our announcement, we've announced that construction is complete and we’re fully into the commissioning and start-up activities. These activities are largely focused on getting the plant dried out and oxygen freed and leak tested and rotating our major equipment in the plant in preparation for the startup. Sitting here today I would say November 15th, plus or minus a few days is where we should be for making first ethylene as is signaled by our announcement. Then as we look forward beyond that we are expecting a ramp-up, first, I would say what was the base plant rates in order to make certain that we get the entire machine lined out and make certain that we've got a good stable operating system at that point of operation and then shortly after that ramping it on up to the expanded capacity. The overall timeframe for getting that done from the day we start making first ethylene is going to be notionally around a month. It is going to be about four weeks but again we’re going to want to do this in a very disciplined way. We've brought some unbelievable operational discipline to the plant there in Geismar and the team is going about this startup in a very deliberate way and a very deliberate disciplined way. But I think that brings all the color you need to give a sense of how we are going to bring the plant back into operation.
Abhi Rajnandan – Credit Suisse:
Last one from me coming back to the merger between the MLPs. So based on the previous iteration of the terms I think you guys have put out figures expecting about a 1.2 times dividend coverage for MB in 2015 and 2016. And then on the revised terms I think cash available after dividends comes in slightly lower. So could you just give us some color on how to think about the maybe new Access coverage over the next couple of years and any other puts and takes there?
Don Chappel:
In terms of the 1.2 times we boosted the initial distribution I think before we said at least 349, we decided to go with 365, so quite a higher initial distribution there, that reduced the coverage a bit but the coverage is still well north of 1.1 times. And in terms of the transaction, we shifted coverage from Williams to the merged partnership. We thought that was the right thing to do to create the kind of valuation and the partnership to make it the lead entity to move Williams to a pure play GP HoldCo. So we shifted the coverage to WPZ again over that three year period, took the coverage down at Williams but nonetheless we still have over $300 million of cash coverage just in 2015 and 2016 really with no real need for that capital. It is nice to have, and I'm sure we will find a value adding use for it, but nonetheless rather than run 1.2 times coverage at Williams without a clear need for the excess coverage or having double coverage, in fact, with the partnership having coverage and Williams having coverage, we didn't see that adding value. So really shifted coverage to be very substantial at the partnership with again the industry leading growth rate for large cap MLPs and taking the coverage down at Williams to a level that we think is appropriate.
Operator:
And now we will go to Brad Olsen with TPH.
Brad Olsen – TPH:
I would like to focus on the macro and maybe follow on some of the questions that Christine had about the pipe project out of the Northeast. Obviously you guys are in a pretty unique position having multiple large scale projects currently out in the mark for producers in the northeast and when you look at all of the different markets that Transco searches do you have a feel -- is there a specific market where either producers feel that they don't have enough access to or the consumers in that market don't feel as though they have enough access to northeast production growth? Just trying to get a feel for as you fill the pipe with all this gas where is it actually going to head and where is there economically the most pull for that gas?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just tell you that the amount of new gas-fired power generation obviously in the southeast is a major issue as that area converts off of coal, if you follow some of the commentary from folks like Southern Company. I think one of their big concerns has been whether there would be adequate infrastructure built out in time, and reliable infrastructure to serve their power generation loads. And so I think this project helps answer some of that frankly. As well, we’re continuing to see obviously a lot it of folks wanting to get to spots where they can deliver to LNG contracts, and by getting all the way to station 65 with this gas, that option becomes available as well. And then, of course, we also have like the large methanol project that Transco has contracted to serve just south of station 65 as well. And as well, all of the southeast from just a general load standpoint continues to grow and so we see that continuing in those regions as well. So many projects like the Dalton Lateral for instance, are projects that need supply. And demonstrate the growing markets, the (indiscernible) expansion to serve Sabal Trail. I will just tell you Transco is winding up being the big high-pressure header that's right in the middle of all the market growth, and people realize that, and they want to be there, not just to serve any one particular market but to have the options of going to where that market growth is. And so it is really a network value, if you will, where you have all the best supplies in the country trying to get in to places where the best marks are and that mutually attracts each other to being connected to that big header.
Brad Olsen – TPH:
Even further south of 65 I know you guys have talked about potentially working with Pemex on the deep water projects that they're starting to pursue, but is there an opportunity maybe for Transco even in south Texas, where you have some existing infrastructure to participate in any of the tenders that either Pemex or CFE have out to import Eagle Ford and other gas supplies into northern Mexico?
Alan Armstrong:
We have a relatively unique project. I would tell you that we have been working on and we’re not positioned to describe that just yet but we are pretty excited about it. And we think it's a very low-risk way of serving that growth in the market and we’re continuing on a nice trajectory to develop that project. But, yes we do have opportunities and yes we’re pursuing those.
Brad Olsen – TPH:
And if we could flip to the ethane side of things, we've recently seen received (indiscernible) for their world-scale cracker and I think that rounds out six or seven crackers which are set to proceed. Interestingly we've seen ethane exports come out of is nowhere and gain quite a bit of steam as well. In light of these recent announcements, how does your view of ethane as feedstock change? I guess more directly, does potential tightening in the ethane market later this decade cause to you rethink what you might use for a feedstock on a second Geismar project, or does it give you pause about a second Geismar world-scale cracker in general?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say that we think there's a lot of ethane available with these growing gas supplies. However, what's not getting invested in actually right now is the infrastructure to be able to recover all that ethane and get it into all these points of consumption and obviously that's a business that we like, and one that we continue to have an eye towards in terms of how we play a critical role in distributing -- recovering and distributing all of that ethane. So I think, it's a very good question and it's at a time like this when the market seems to be awash in ethane, people are unwilling to invest in the infrastructure that it takes to get it recovered and into those markets, but we believe that just like what we are seeing on the gas side now where the demand is on the verge of really starting to grow pretty rapidly. We think the same thing will happen on the ethane side, but it is going to take quite a bit of infrastructure, and we are certainly working hard to plan that. We’re in the process of commissioning our Bayou Ethane project which extends ethane from Mont Belvieu over into Lake Charles area in Louisiana and ultimately connects into our system that gets ethane all the way over to the river, and so that's just an example of how we are positioning ourselves to be a solution to the problem that you describe which is going to eventually catch up with us.
Brad Olsen – TPH:
And you mention the ethane pollution. Are there opportunities as we see the ethylene market potentially growing 30% or 40% with all these new crackers and Brownfield projects? Do you see opportunities on the Olefin transportation and storage side as well as on the ethane transportation and store?
John Dearborn:
Absolutely we do in that we continue to promote our projects on the Gulf Coast around the transport of both propylene which today will be made from new sources like propane de hydro units, what is now Flynn Hills and down [ph] to new markets as well as some additional propylene splitters that will put new supplies on to that system. So that's one pipeline system that we are promoting. And then the second is what we call our project which is an ethylene pipeline which is intended to connect some of the major players on the ethylene side in order to bring some of the really more about reliability there. But as well give the opportunity to get ethylene into the hub where ethylene will be able to be traded well in that hub in order to be able to do some good price discovery of ethylene which is a service that Williams brought to the market in the last couple of years.
Operator:
I will now go to Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs:
Some clean-up stuff here, the Canadian PDH sounds like you're close to FID there. Any sort of zip code on the capital involved there? Can you confirm that will be 100% fee based and then the kind of return you would be looking for?
Alan Armstrong:
You know, until we take that to the board, Ted, and we've got an outside party involved in there as the customer and so I think until we get all that wrapped up we’re are not -- don't really want to be announcing any of those details just yet. But as you know we've continued to try to work that project in a way that it reduces our commodity exposure in that space is and we think we've found a nice way and a nice partner to accomplish that with.
Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs:
Okay. I wonder if you can just talk a little bit, looking out west here the implications of buying the 50% interest in Ruby. Do you think that helps at all your Pacific Connector project or should we really just look to sort of Jordan Coke [ph] going to FID?
Alan Armstrong:
Well, I just think it non straits their confidence in the project and certainly they're the ones that have the very best seat at the table there. We certainly have worked alongside them and have our own internal perspective, but I would say anybody that's putting their money where their mouth is something you ought to pay attention to and they certainly have stepped up and done that.
Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs:
And then last one from me is just as you look at the deep water, any thoughts? We have seen some of the majors continue with the activity out there of another Gulfstar, more like the Keathley Canyon project. How is the outlook there?
Rory Miller:
The timeline on making deep water infrastructure investments and I guess development of deepwater prospects is pretty long, usually it's a four to six-year cycle to get that started. So current price is not really too instructive about those decisions. There is a lot of what I would call pent up discoveries in the mill, if you will. A lot of discoveries have been made and they're slow going to sanctioning right now and that's predominantly, I think, because producers are waiting on that 20-K technology to be made available. I think the target is maybe sometime in the 2019, 2020 timeframe that the technology and the equipment will be ready. That's slowing things down a little bit more than the price of oil but we do think we’re going to have an opportunity in the next 12 to 24 months to deploy another Gulfstar, and as those project get broken loose we think we will be well-positioned. We haven't lost any interest in that. It's kind of 10 and the flow of the deepwater but most producers are looking out I think six years or so in terms of what the price is going to be at that time.
Operator:
And our next question from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Picking up on Ted's question about Geismar 2, have you all given any more thought with Geismar 1 ramping up over the next couple of months possibly neutralizing the commodity risk there over the next year or two?
Alan Armstrong:
Craig, we continue to look at that, and obviously what we’re trading off there is the high margin and the benefit we get from that versus the stability of fee based structure, and as well I would tell you we really would like to do a transaction that pulls all the way through our infrastructure. In other words, takes advantage of the ethane supplies and death that I know length that we’ve, our upstream business, and pulls that all the way to our own infrastructure. And so that would be our preference on how we would do that and provided we could make enough margin in the fee based side to help offset a large portion of that commodity margin. We would do that and so I would just tell you we are always weighing that balance internally, but it is a hard margin, especially given how strong the fundamentals are right now. It is a hard margin to give up, but we do continue to look at that and I would say it would probably come in the way of a fairly large structured transaction for us to get that because it would, as I have mentioned, would it involve trying to get the value chain all the way back through our access.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Sounds like that's not anything imminent, maybe more like 2016 or beyond?
Alan Armstrong:
It might come with contracting on Geismar 2 perhaps -- and perhaps a portion of that so it could come ahead of that.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
And picking up on Christine's questioning, with the MLP set to finalize the merger in just the next couple of months, have you had any formal discussions with customers about amending ACMP's cost of service arrangements to dove tail with WPZ's infrastructure in kind of a win-win manner?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say -- to answer your question directly is no, but I would say that we see a lot of opportunity. We've had some very encouraging meetings with the Chesapeake team and really honestly, pretty impressed, frankly, by the attitude that Doug Lawler is bringing to that and kind of a high trust relationship that we’re used to working in and one that we can really drive win-win solutions for each other in. And so while we don't have anything specific there, I would tell you I see a lot of opportunity between our companies to continue to expand our relationship in a way that's beneficial for both parties.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
And there has been some kind of strange trading between WPZ and ACMP since is you announced your finalized merger agreement. Can you discuss anything that would logically push this past the fourth quarter distribution record date, so that PZ would get the higher February payment versus the combined one?
Alan Armstrong:
It's just a typical SEC process so we will file the S-4 within the next couple of weeks, then it's just a question of how quickly we get through the SEC. It could move very quickly or it could be a bit longer. So that's really the wild card. It's just really the SEC process for the S-4. As we indicated in our documents Williams has sufficient votes to ensure that the vote is in favor of the merger and in fact, we have already committed to vote in favor of the merger. So there is no doubt as to the outcome. So it is really just the SEC's S-4 clearance process.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Last question, I think you have $275 million of outstanding unpaid insurance claims. Can you kind of give some more color about what the primary questioning is around this and to the degree you don't recover, what you had anticipated? Does the MLP just kind of chock that up to history, or does MB help out in any way?
Alan Armstrong:
Craig, we’re vigorously pursuing the claim and we think we’ve a very strong claim. Obviously the insurers would like to pay less, so there's some level of debate. I don't think we want to go into the details, but certainly we’re actively engaged in the process. We and our insurers have now agreed to non-binding mediation in an effort to resolve differences and we’re going to begin that later in the month of November. As to what happens if WPZ falls short, it will just be a shortfall in the collection. It will be kind of a onetime item that I think and that's the way we look at it, really no other action that would be related to that. But again, we’re vigorously pursuing the claim and we will begin the mediation process in late November.
Operator:
And now we will go to Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital:
Just maybe two quick areas of cleanup, Alan, if I first go back to Appalachian Connector, I'm just sort of curious with some of the competition that you’re seeing there, do you see any potential for either this project to move into -- or to have partners in the structure and similarly, do you expect any erosion or change perhaps in the economics from what you saw in Atlantic Sunrise as far as return on capital?
Alan Armstrong:
I would answer the second one first. I think very similar kind of the targets of course a larger portion of this project is Greenfield in terms of the capital amount so we had a less leverage if you will off the existing system. So potentially, depending on the ultimate size potentially could be a little bit lower than what we enjoyed on Atlantic Sunrise just because that was pretty extraordinary, but still very attractive returns on the project. Secondly, I would say that the -- as to the partnership and arrangements there, we think we've got a good project going ahead and while there may be some partners that bring some strategic value to it that we would entertain right now. We would tell you we have a project that we think stands pretty well on its own at this point.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital:
I had just one quick follow-up on that, and I guess I ask this in the sense that all large infrastructure seems to be taking longer than expected to kind of get done these days. And so I'm just curious when you all work backwards from a potential late 2018 (indiscernible), when do you feel like you need to basically have shippers locked up I mean as far as whether you’re getting to the present agreements or following it with a binding open season? When do you kind of have to have that in hand do you think?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just tell you we’re in the stage of negotiating those agreements and making great progress on that and obviously the quicker we get them done, the less risk we’ve on the timing. But I would tell you we've got a very sober viewpoint out there these days on what it takes to get these projects built and we've got that built into our perspective. But having said that, we can't spend six months getting the agreements negotiated, so I would say it's more -- a couple months to get this done within our expectations. Again, I think the appetite that we’re seeing, I think that's very doable at this point.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital:
And then last quick question, just maybe turning to Canada, and this is really more on the base off gas and the processing and I think you actually mentioned some of the coker outages at Suncor and it looked like there was maybe been maintenance at Redwater, I think you said (indiscernible). I guess maybe my question is that do you’ve a sense of what the missed opportunity cost was in the quarter from those outages from the lower equity NGLs? I think you mentioned Geismar for instance being $200 million. I didn't know if you had a similar analog for the Canadian side.
John Dearborn:
If I could just make a few comments though about how things are going up in Canada. First of all we have invested mightily over the last year in reliability up in Canada so we’re poised to take as much gas as our partner is ready to deliver to us at that facility. In fact, we've made some improvement projects that perhaps might allow it to be higher than our earlier expectations. Secondly, in terms of operational discipline in this last turnaround, we actually got through this turnaround slightly less time than we originally planned. We accomplished a 100% of the tie-ins that we wanted to accomplish during the turnaround and came in slightly under budget. So now that the answer to your question is probably about $20 million in missed opportunity in Canada this quarter. Against what would be operations at full capacity receiving all the gas that we could from our partner.
Operator:
Our next question is from Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo:
Just following up on your previous comments, have you tried to quantify some of the commercial opportunities you expect to realize and what type of upside that represents to maybe 2015 guidance for the merged MLP?
Alan Armstrong:
The only thing that we've put out there, Sharon obviously, is that the merged MLP of $50 million savings and I would tell you we think that's very achievable at this point. And we really haven't though put a number to the commercial side and I would tell you some of it will be pretty hard to characterize. For instance, if we’re able to pick up volumes and develop a project like Atlantic Connector based on some of those synergies, that's a longer term value proposition but nevertheless valuable. And so we haven't really put any kind of numbers to the commercial side of that yet and as I said it's such a fluid situation in terms of customer responses and so forth, that's going to be pretty hard for us to quantify. But we’re certainly excited what we’re seeing, and Jim Scheel and John Seldenrust, John runs that area for ACMP, are working closely together to capture a lot of those and I think both of them are pretty impressed with the amount of opportunities that we’re seeing.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo:
And just one last one from me, for the drop down of the remaining Canadian assets is there a specific reason why the drop would occur to WPZ versus the merged entity in 2015?
Don Chappel:
Sharon, this could go either way, it's our expectation. We'll likely drop it to WPZ. It will likely happen just prior to the merger but it could happen concurrent with the merger, but it's something that we've got some flexibility on, but it's likely going to be first of the year.
Operator:
And we will go to Timm Schneider with ISI Group.
Timm Schneider – ISI Group:
Quick one from me, so I think it was two weeks ago or so Sunday night, a report hits Bloomberg, Williams amongst bidders for a competitors Rockies, gathering processing system. Obviously not expecting you guys to comment on that transaction, what I'm interested in is what's your appetite for acquisitions at this point? What are you guys kind of seeing? And then specifically how do you balance that with kind of working through what you already have on your plate and then follow-up on that is how do you guys look at your securities as currency in this environment?
Alan Armstrong:
I would just tell you, Timm, as we've said all along, we’re always interested in acquisitions that are write-down or ally in terms of being strategic and in areas that further strengthen our hand, but we’re not interested in just doing (indiscernible) acquisitions that aren't additive to our strategy. And so I would just say we’re going to be very selective, but given the large footprint that we have there is a number of project that would add a lot of synergies. I would even suggest something like QEP. Not surprising to me that somebody assumed we would be the buyer because I would tell you we would be a pretty good buyer for those assets just given the synergies that we’ve in the area. And so we will certainly be keeping our eyes open as to the equity value. I would tell you obviously we've demonstrated we think we’re really undervalued substantially right now, but we think that will correct itself in the not too distant future. So we’re going to be pretty stingy with our equity obviously when it's valued like it is right now but we do have our eyes open and we do have other financing means given the strong step-up in cash flows that we've got coming our way.
Operator:
And we will go to Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Chris Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
Just want to follow-up on some of Carl's questions on Canada. John, curious if you talked about or Alan talked about the Redwater outage, Suncor downtime you gave some color on the impacts of the quarter. Just wondering where we stand right now? Are there any outages of that nature we ought to be thinking about on a go forward that would be sort of profiling over the next 4 or 5 quarters and then as you sort of assessed the operations up there given some of these disruptions do you still feel comfortable about the segment profit target that you had previously given for next year? I think it was kind of 170 to 210 range?
Alan Armstrong:
You've asked a lot in that question, so let's take it piece by piece. Looking forward into next year in the fourth quarter, late third quarter – fourth quarter, obviously we've got to finish up the tie-ins for the horizon project which will be coming on-line. So we can expect there will be some outage during that time. We try and minimize the impact of these outages by continuing -- we keep our wells as dry as possible ahead of the outages so that we keep the gas, or the liquids flowing out of the LEP unit up at Fort McMurray for as long as practical. We minimize the impact. So that's I think where we’re there. And then to the second point as to how do we increase, and perhaps I would ask the question a little differently, how do we increase the reliability of the gas flow. We’re spending an enormous amount of effort and time in collaboration with Suncor to help both solve some of their problems which they have some real problems that need to be solved at their plant as well as to obviously assist them in getting more gas to our plant. Until we have multiple sources of gas getting to our plants, multiple sources of liquids, I think we are always going to be beholden to the reliability of our single supplier there. So I guess -- I don't want to give the excuse it's out of our control, because we want to work with Suncor in maximizing our opportunities at this stage but until we have the multiple sources I think we’re going to have the risk of the single source of supply in front of us.
Chris Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
I think sticking with Canada for a moment, but shifting to Don, wondering about the pending drop-down of the projects up there given I guess, the fact that they're in-progress opportunities largely. Wondering if you could sort of help us think about the potential multiple we might expect there. Obviously nothing specific but we've seen in-progress opportunities be dropped at book value, some companies talk about sort of flywheel effects that are generated from those in-progress opportunities and sort of expand them. So I'm just wondering your thinking now, the Board's thinking about the Canadian opportunities in light of some of the challenges we've seen up there as of late.
Don Chappel:
Chris, what we’re thinking is that the aggregate portfolio of assets, both the project we mentioned as well as a variety of other prospective projects would include includes the Syncrude prospect, the Canadian PDH, Geismar 2 and the Gulf Coast pipelines, they're all held by Williams NGL & Petchem Services, it would be dropped together and we would drop those at about invested capital, so book value if you will and that was part of our I will say negotiations as part of our merger.
Chris Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
One more question from me real quickly. You've had some questions obviously in this call and I think, Timm hit on it with acquisitions and what not but, Alan just curious, how do you think about the IG rating, the surplus cash your projecting over the next couple of years? It does appear you have retained a lot of financial flexibility if the execution matches the plan. You know you're slides indicated, you’ve stated on the call. You don’t think you’re being paid for the distribution and growth that you're projecting right now. So I'm just wondering given that, are you likely to accelerate any of those growth projections or is there -- if more head room comes available or would you rather sort of add coverage, keep optionality on the table as you think about potential acquisitions that might come, additional project that might come, any color on that would be helpful in regarding your priorities.
Alan Armstrong:
I would just say that we do think we’re not being valued for the growth at either the MLP or at the parent level right now and frankly, I think that's to be understood given the outage at Geismar and some of the risks around that and some of these major projects that we’re bringing on-line. And so I think now as those issues are cured, I think we could see a pretty big step-up on that. So I would just tell you, we’re pretty energized about how our strategy is playing out. We think there is a lot of acquisition opportunities that would be dead in-line with our strategy and continuing to strengthen that. And certainly with the major footprint that we have now with the combination of Access and WPZ, there is just more opportunities out in front of us that we are the right buyer for. So I would tell you, I think we’re in a pretty offensive posture, but I would say two things, tamp that a little bit. One, of course, is that we do need to see our equities valued properly and two, when you've got such a tremendous growth in your cash flows built into your model and you're running accretion analysis, You’ve got a big step to climb there to be accretive against such a terrific growth pattern that we already have. So it's great problem to have when your base business is growing so strong to look at these acquisitions. But at the end of the day we’re very focused on our vision of being the player in this natural gas space on the infrastructure side and we’re going to stay committed to that vision but do it in a financially prudent manner.
Operator:
And now we will take our last question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet – JPMorgan:
Just one small question follow-up here at the end, I was just wondering if you look back towards the end of the data back and you have segment profit guidance reported to adjusted on slide 103, just looking at the 2015 guidance it seems like there is an item in the northeast GMP of $136 million. And I apologize if I missed it, but could you just provide some color on what the item is?
John Porter:
Yes that was an item that we had in the fourth quarter of 2014 that we discussed on our second quarter call that has now been moved into 2015. We haven't given specific details around that but it was an item that we were expecting to come through our GAAP earnings and felt like it should be adjusted out. It's contingent type item.
Operator:
This concludes today's question and answer session. Mr. Alan Armstrong at this time I would like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Thank you very much. Well, as you can see, this growth is right on the verge of here at WPZ. ACMP continues to perform extremely well and the combination of these two great organizations is something to be very excited about. However, as we think about all of this growth, I think one thing I want to recognize to our investor base here is the tremendous amount of toil and effort that goes on by these teams that are bringing these big projects in. It is not an easy job these days to work these projects and do it in a safe manner and there is all kinds of hurdles that are constantly facing these big projects and these teams have stayed with it and done their work in a safe and reliable manner and I just want to say a big thanks because of all these great rewards that we’re able to offer back to our shareholders are really coming through the efforts of our great operating teams and our project management teams. So I want to recognize the great effort that's going on there. So with that, thank you all very much for joining. Appreciate, as always, the great questions and we’re really looking forward to really seeing this major powerhouse really starting to take off. Thank you very much.
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John Porter – Head, IR Alan Armstrong – President and CEO James Scheel – SVP, Northeast G&P Donald Chappel – SVP and CFO John Dearborn – SVP, NGL and Petchem Services
Analysts:
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital Shneur Gershuni – UBS Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse Theodore Durbin – Goldman Sachs Group Inc Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets U.S. Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers Christopher Sighinolfi – Jefferies Bradley Olsen – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Williams and Williams Partners Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thank you Rochelle. Good morning and welcome. As always, we thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our websites, williams.com and williamslp.com. These items include yesterday’s press releases with related schedules and the accompanying analyst packages, the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to you momentarily and an update to our data books, which contain detailed information regarding various aspects of our business. In addition to Alan, we also have the four leaders of our operating areas with us, Jim Scheel leads our Northeastern G&P operating area, Allison Bridges leads our Western operating area, Rory Miller leads our Atlantic Gulf area and John Dearborn leads our NGL & Petchem Services operating area. Additionally, our CFO, Don Chappel is available to respond to any questions. In yesterday’s presentation and also in our data books, you will find an important disclaimer related to forward-looking statements. This disclaimer is important and integral to all of our remarks and you should review it. Also included in our presentation materials are various non-GAAP measures that we’ve reconciled to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Those reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the presentation materials. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.
Alan Armstrong:
Great. Good morning John and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. Certainly the second quarter was very exciting for Williams as we seized the opportunity to make an important acquisition that moved us closer to fulfilling our vision of being a premier provider of reliable large scale infrastructure that really has become very clear to everybody that this kind of large scale infrastructure is going to be absolutely critical to allow North America to take advantage of its fast natural gas resources. We also rapidly accelerated our earlier stated plans of establishing WMB as a pure-play G&P hold-co and continue to lead the space and dividend growth by very wide margin. At WPZ, we had another strong quarter with operation performance being in line with our expectations and driving a 30% increase in distributable cash flow at WPZ. We also enjoyed great progress in execution on a number of very important projects in the second quarter, a tremendous amount of work going on in the organization on this front and just to name a few and you really only hear about the very largest projects, but a tremendous amount of efforts going on across the organization, but just to name a few Gulfstar, Keathley Canyon, the condensate stabilizer at Oak Grove and Ohio Valley Midstream area, the new ethane line which is being completed in the OVM area and we also started construction finally on the Rockaway Beach Lateral after a very long and drawn out permitting process. So for those of you there in the New York you look at see some of that work going on in fact on the front of our slide you see some picture of that. So that’s going to allow us to bring that project in on schedule as well. So a lot of very big projects that we made tremendous progress on and remain on schedule on some of those major projects. We also saw continued strong demand for our services with two significant new market pull projects on Transco that were fully contracted and I think it’s becoming pretty evident that Transco discontinues to line up these hits and I’ll tell you that’s not slowing down in terms of continued business development opportunities just keep coming at us in that business line. The Marcellus area volumes continued their rapid growth as well with a 31% increase in gathered volumes as compared to last year’s 2Q volumes and we are on track once again to lead the industry on volume growth in the Marcellus this year. Our Geismar E&C efforts were in line with plan and our rebuild was completed last week. Our final efforts on the expansion will be done by the end of next week. So our E&C team, our engineering and construction team is wrapping up and moving out as we now are turning that important solely over to our operations team. Unfortunately and certainly this is something we’re all very disappointed around here with, but unfortunately did find a new concern there at Geismar that is going to require enhancement to our safety systems that we expect to cause about a six to eight week delay in the first sale at that point at Geismar. As I mentioned this is certainly disappointing to us but as difficult as this is, I’ll tell you, I am proud of the fact that our organization will always put a safety of our people first and this is certainly just our organization following those words with action by having the courage to pause and do the right thing in terms of making sure that, that plan is as safe as possible. So even though this is an out of the norm situation here, I know this is such a big issue, I really would like to take you back to the appendix and if you look back on, I believe it is slide 14 in this deck and we’ll move that on our webcast even though it is out of order here. You will see that on slide 14, we show the incredible progress that has been made on the expansion and the rebuild and the pre-commissioning efforts which were all but complete and will be complete at the end of next week in terms of getting all of our systems turned over to operations. So what does that mean, it basically means systems like our steam systems, all of our auxiliary systems and we break those down in to about 62 different systems and as those are mechanically complete, we turn them over to our operations team for them to take control of those facilities. And so we were finalizing some of the release valve study that was required as a result of the event of June 13th, we determined and were frankly a bit surprised but determined that there was another scenario that we needed to be prepared for in the event of a blow down or the event of an error at the plant and the malfunction of the plant. And that assumption that we embedded has required us to do go back and study the press release system and we determine as we did that that we actually had to make some further modification to the relief valve system again certainly a tough decision to do that, but again I think absolutely the right line when it comes putting a safety ahead of anything else in our business. So you can see here in July 31, we are started on that relief valve system and modifications, we had a lot of this, the plant already buttoned up and in many cases lot of the systems were dried out, we haven’t open the system back up now and so that introduces moisture into the system. So when you see that plant dry up, it’s basically backing up on some of the systems that we had already turned over. And so we think the relief valve system modifications will take about seven weeks and in parallel that as we start to complete, button up some of those systems will start to dry out and will start tuning up some of the cracking furnaces there and so that’s the second blue part that you see they are called plant dry out and hydrocarbon introduction. And then finally moving us to a first week in October as we start to get into ethylene production and so one of the things I would like to clear here that is certainly our target. We think that is a very achievable target, but in terms of our financial projections, just given the number of issues we face there we have spread that contingency up and basically we have the range in our financials now just basically starting with that first ethylene production running through the end of the year and so that’s the range of outcomes that we’ve got to built into guidance now. So we are building ourselves some additional contingencies in there beyond what our targeted date is there. So that’s our detail and we’ll be happy to take any questions on that later John Dearborn will be here to help address in that as well. Moving on now to the rest of the presentation and on the Slide seven, it’s really a impressive growth numbers continue to be posted were both WPZ and ACMP and that continues to drive very impressive cash flow growth at Williams and this is especially impressive when you consider that in the second quarter, we only recognize about two months of business interruption coverage there Geismar. And so our fee-based revenues in the quarter continue to steady march up into the right and despite a very mild second quarter in terms of any weather on our pipeline systems, we still continue to move that up about 7% over 2Q of last year on our fee-based revenues and I think also important were well over 80% of our reported net revenues were coming from fee-based services. It also should be understood much of the big capital investments that we’ve been making here really over last two and half, three years, don’t start producing cash flow until the third quarter and fourth quarter of the year as Gulfstar, Keathley Canyon and our OVM or Ohio Valley Midstream investment really began to generate significant cash flow and earnings here in the last half of the year. And then of course ACMP continues, it’s very steady progress up into the right as this group continues to benefit from its very tight focus on growing the gathering the compressions business in the nations very best natural gas basins. So I’m very pleased with the way the business is continuing to expand and we’ve got a really exciting last half of the year in front of it. Now looking at some of these important growth drivers that we continue to focus on and report to our investors. One item of significance been added to this was you will see there at the bottom is the ACMP acquisition and in terms of results, pretty impressive work by our finance and legal teams this last second quarter moving from price agreement with GIP all the way to closure within a matter about five or six weeks. So very impressive work by that team and just continues to shine light on the kind of town we have around here and our commitment to continue to drive shareholder value here at Williams. And so this was, the half year represents a tremendous amount of effort really across the whole organization and with the exception of Geismar we are very pleased with the results on the store card here as we pause here in first part of third quarter. Now there is certainly many E&C projects that are nearly complete and now we are beginning to turn our attention on the next waiver projects that just keep coming, things are very well positioned assets and the competitive advantages that we constantly focus on developing. I’ll tell you that’s a very natural part of the way we run the business here at Williams and a lot of these major large scale projects that we take on and the challenges that we take on really are in support of making sure we maintain strong competitive advantages in our business. So moving onto Slide nine and looking forward here to this next waiver project, we see that this list is long and it just keeps coming. The bulk of the large projects in 2015 come from our Atlantic Gulf region that continue to perform very well, Atlantic Gulf region continues to execute and continues to hit this number on a regular basis. And we certainly are, as we look here at the projects in ‘15, many of these are really in the major projects are expansions of our Transco and our gas pipeline system in the Atlantic Gulf area, projects like Kodiak for instance really are capital led to tie back to an existing facility and we do have continued what we call program capital as we continue to build up northeast GMP but a bulk of our major projects have really in the northeast, a lot of that is getting out of the way this year and we’ve really set ourselves up for a lot of big fundamental growth looking forward beyond 2014 in the northeast. The major projects in 2017 really come on light in the year but our backlog of projects beyond 2017 just keeps building and you really should expect this to continue for some time as we bring the combined strength of both WPZ and ACMP now and bring those resources together and the opportunities that they combination brings really is going to be critical as the nation here tries to get up on a 100 Bcf natural gas market. We think Williams and the combined entity is going to be very much at the forefront of reaching that 100 Bcf today gas market here in the U.S. So moving to Slide 10, I’m kind of looking at the big picture of what this new MLP would be, we are, we couldn’t be more excited about, not only the size, the scale of this MLP, but the very consistent focus on being the player in the natural gas phase and natural gas products and derivatives they are coming out of this big road to natural gas and we think the combination of Williams access just continues to load us towards more and more growth, just some important things to note on here that are very impressive in 2015 and expected EBITDA of about $5 billion and in addition to that continued best in class growth distribution of 10% to 12%, which is really impressive when you consider the scale and what it takes to grow the cash distribution in this business and something of this scale. And so continuing to be able to do that through 2017 and maintain strong coverage really provide an investment vehicle that we think is absolutely unmatched and is going to continue to give us the kind of firepower to continue to expand this business larger and larger. So, couldn’t be more excited about the combination of this business and if you look on slide 11, this really conveys the breadth here that Williams has but it also shows really what ACMP is doing for us in the upstream piece of our business and if you think about the way, we have genuinely grown a lot of our businesses over the year, we basically have linked and levered either the market back into the upstream or we have taken the upstream and the gathering & processing business and move those opportunities downstream certainly nothing is more obvious about how we have done that in recent times, you know many times over the years nothing is more obviously than the way that’s is going for us up in the Susquehanna supply area and the ability that we have generated may large projects off of about brig upstream growing volumes there. So, if you look at that and think about ACMP today on a operated gathering volumes PZ and ACMP are every close to the same number and if you look it on a capacity basis WPZ is larger part of that just because of the legacy large scale assets that we have had out in the Western basins. But nevertheless very impressive position in the gathering space upstream and our ability continue to deliver services and link that to service opportunities for our customers downstream this basically just reloads our set of opportunities in continuing to grow that, I can tell you didn’t feel like we needed a lot of that but nevertheless I have got a lot of confidence in not just the assets but the combination of the people of ACMP and Williams, there is some incredible strengths at ACMP that frankly we are very excited to have hitched to our wagon and a lot we can learn frankly from expanding the upstream gathering business and a great job they have done there and what PZ brings to that of course is the ability to continue to expand opportunities beyond that. So, tremendous strategic fit as well as a great financial for Williams and WPZ. So, moving on to slide 12 here, really couldn’t be more excited about how we are positioned strategically right now and thrilled to see the ACMP piece come along, it further fills our hand out and this scale and the opportunity set that we have and the growth that we have, we think is unmatched. And we have a very fired up organization I can tell you right now, very excited to take on these new opportunities both at the ACMP level and at the Williams level. So, very excited about the quarter, disappointed with Geismar but extremely excited about the second half of this year and the kind of growth we are going to get to witness here in the second half of the year. And with that, I’ll turn it over to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions). And first we’ll hear from Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Good morning everyone.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning Christine.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Your other fee revenues in the Northeast doubled quarter-over-quarter even though NGL production didn’t change that much. I am assuming that this is the condensate handling that came on during the quarter. When did that come on and how much of the 6,000 barrels per day capacity are you using currently?
Alan Armstrong:
Jim can you take that please?
James Scheel:
Sure, Christine good to talk to you again. That’s correct, that’s the stabilizer fee revenue and the stabilizer came on, it was 50% of the stabilizer I should say came on you can see we have the first phase of 6,000 barrels a day come on in April of this year.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
And that how much of that capacity are you currently using?
James Scheel:
We are using about half of that today and that’s growing as additional wells come online. We have got about 73 wells coming online for the balance of the year.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
And then if you’re GPM of the gas is 8 or something like that how much of that is condensate is 10% is a fair assumption?
James Scheel:
I am not 100% sure on that Christine I had to get back with you but I think that’s pretty close, it is probably in the 8% to 12% but I don’t know exactly that number.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, that’s fine. Also the de-ethanizer getting moved up by a quarter. Did this impact volumes in second quarter at all meaning did anyone have to shut in wells because the gas wouldn’t meet pipeline respect with ethane in it?
James Scheel:
No, we haven’t had any of those issues right now although that continues to be concern a Christine. The de-ethanizer had no impact in the second quarter, actually even if it had been online we wouldn’t have had the opportunity to move ethane because of some other downstream issues, we are right now working to commission that asset and it should be up during the third quarter.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, great. And then Alan or Don I think you have told in on a prior call that you guys have – your first refusal came into – it came in energy too JV position but what about on the ACMP side you know there are some partners who are backed by private equity in E&P companies who may or may not want to a minority owner in such assets in the longer term and I would think that they would want to monetize at some point with the combined ACMP/WPZ MLP have any first rates there?
Alan Armstrong:
You know I am not sure what the confidentially terms are for ACMP on that issue. So, we’d rather not comment on what their rights are there I would just simply say that we do feel like we are very well positioned to consolidate a lot of those assets in the Utica there I am pretty excited about Blue Racer – what our opportunities to consolidate look like there?
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, great. And then while I think its consensus opinion that the first part of the deal of ACMP is accretive I think there is some confusion in the market as to whether or not the second part of the deal adds to that accretion or chips away a little from that accretion is there any clarification you can provide?
Donald Chappel:
Christine its Don. Since the merger is currently being negotiated or about to be negotiated between the two partnerships I don’t want to go too far on this. But certainly the way we styled it Williams would take reduced cash flow in the early period and enjoy higher cash flows, higher growth beyond so, likely mildly dilutive initially and then turning around pretty quickly.
Christine Cho – Barclays Capital:
Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator:
And we’ll next move to Shneur Gershuni with UBS.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Hi, good morning guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Alan in your prepared remarks you talked about market pull of projects and so forth it seems to have come to fruition during the quarter. I think in your slides you had said that you got about a backlog of 25 billion at WPZ and another 4 billion at Access. Any sense on how large this backlog could potentially grow in terms of order of magnitude, are we talking in the neighborhood of 10% to 20% or are we talking to something significantly higher assuming you are able to commercially negotiate some projects and so forth?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, you know I think a couple of thoughts on that. One, we may actually see a lot of opportunities that come to us that require less capital so, higher earnings and better return but less capital as we look at opportunities between the two. So I would just say the opportunities may not be measured in capital and will be measured in earnings growth. But I will just tell you that the number of opportunities that just keep coming at us along the Transco system and on the northwest pipeline system as the market continues on the demand side to try to figure out how to take advantage of all this low cost gas and continued confidence in low cost gas is pretty impressive that given what a deficit we had in storage this year and we are sitting in sub 4 gas price really tells you the confidence that the demand side has and the supply capabilities, the long-term supply capabilities of the gas basins. But what that’s developing is a lot major downstream project And so I would tell you, I think a lot of our growth is actually going to come from that and our ability to connect the supplies into those opportunities and of course all of that new gas supply leads in to both natural gas liquids and olefins as well as we produce that gas we got to something with the liquids and find market to those liquid. So, I would tell you rather than the ACMP combination driving a lot of capital increases, I would say it’s slightly going to drive in the northeast, it will drive some higher earnings but perhaps I don’t know that it will reduce our capital but I would say a lot of it would be just higher earnings in here.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Great a couple of quick follow ups, we saw some ramps in volumes in the northeast and you didn’t have any change to your 2015 guidance, is it fair to say that the way the northeast acted in the second quarter is exactly the way you wanted it to, it is running according your plan and you would expect to see a significant acceleration in 3Q and 4Q. I was wondering if you can sort of walk us through the ramp as to how we go from 1Q and 2Q of this year as to how we end up with kind of the guidance for 2015 in terms of where you expect the big pick up in ramp acceleration to…?
Alan Armstrong:
That’s an excellent question and I’ll tell you I am very excited what we are seeing there in the engagement I’m going to ask Jim Scheel to provide a little more color on that, thank you for asking the question.
James Scheel:
Yeah I’ll answer that in a couple of phases. I think we are very excited about the progress we are making in the Susquehanna supply hub or ABA area. We are right on target and actually probably a little bit ahead of where we wanted to be. We have a lot of projects coming online during the third and fourth quarters of this year, they will be on time-on budget. We’re growing those volumes by about 34% versus prior year as we come out of the year and quarter-over-quarter this year we’re up 8%. So obviously we’ve always wanted to do better up there and smash more gas in to the system but we’re right on target with where we want to be. OBM has been a bit of a different story, it’s very consistent with the last analyst day in the last earnings call. You can actually see on page 20 of the book that we’ve lowered our average volumes for the year, that’s primarily due to a number of producers having some challenges at the front end of the year and so we are seeing the way on wells coming online. But we will actually end the year higher, we adjusted the number for the year end at 420 and again as I’d mentioned a bit earlier, we have a number of wells, we have lots of visibility on getting ready to come online. We have 73 wet Marcellus and in addition to that some dry Utica wells that’s not included in that overall number that could actually add to some of the volume but obviously that will be at a bit of a lower rate. Our biggest issues right now as we look into the third quarter are commissioning the assets that will drive some incremental fee revenue, you’ll see our fee revenues increasing and then just seeing when the producers tie those lines in. L&M is on target with where we expect for the most part and will end the year about 25% higher than last year as well. So, although there are challenges in the northeast that we’ve been seeing around OVM on the producer side; the good news is unlike past discussions the assets seem to have the reliability in order to move the gas and we’ll be able to meet our customers’ needs as we go through the third and fourth quarter with the incremental processing options for them.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Great one last question if I may. Just if we can turn the Geismar obviously a disappointment that it wasn’t able to start up on time so forth. I was just wondering if you can sort of elaborate a little bit on the safety issues, did it come up in the inspection process and sort of prevent a permit from being issued or is this something that you’ve just decided to do over and above the process in all permits and everything is in place. I was just wondering if you can give us a little bit of color around the safety measures that are being enhanced?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah let me have John Dearborn take that, he’s been right, square in the middle of that.
John Dearborn:
And thanks for the question, very insightful question the way you ask it. And to take on the first part of your question as to whether it had something to do with the permits. I would say no not at all it rather to put it into some context for you, the overall – and in the overall plant there were more than 750 pressure safety valves throughout that plant and on a regular basis you go through and you study all the pressure scenarios on these various pieces the equipment and how these valves are expected to control over pressure circumstances and prior to the incident and then of course as a result of the incident we were doing over pressure studies and they were being done in a very prioritized way and a very careful way as well. We have to be very deliberate, very disciplined in how we go about doing this work. And the work, it progressed extremely well, some of the valves just to give you an idea, some of the valves get studied and we said okay the valve is fine and you put the documentation to the file about how the valve has been restudied and no further work was needed. In the prioritization we left several studied valves towards the end of the study and it until early in July as the study was finishing up the team came to learn of a particular scenario that truly required mitigation. So as we came to learn of that, the team considered several strategies that could have potentially worked in the circumstance and determine that the best solution we could have applied was to install several new PSVs and just so you understand the number of several is really about 12 PSVs are being installed and to replace several sections of piping. Now it happens that the full impact of this essentially new work on our schedule is not known until earlier this week and frankly it’s what resulted in this disappointing disclosure today but I just want to reiterate once again that we’re taking this extra precaution here to enhance the safety of our workers and the public and I hope that provides some adequate colors everyone on the phone about this entire issue that we’re grappling with as we move forward toward the safe and sustainable restart the plant.
Shneur Gershuni – UBS:
Great that was extremely helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And we’ll move next to Brian Lasky with Morgan Stanley.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
Hi good morning. Just kind of following up on Geismar there really quick. I was just wondering if you guys can discuss a little more at length kind of what the drivers of your range is in terms of for first ethylene production and what could possibly delay this further?
John Dearborn:
Sure glad to bring some color to that. So let’s reflect again about what happened at the time of the incident, this plant went down in a very unusual and a hard way right. We had to take some unusual precautions and go through certain procedures in order to clean it out. And so certainly there could be some potential risks related to some of the equipment as a result of way it had gone down. Secondarily I would say there’s always a concern that exists around restart of a plant especially when it’s been extended. Now as to whether the systems as designed and as reinstalled work, take for instance rotating equipments, sometimes you have to go in and look at the rotating equipment a second time. Now that’s historically happened to us, from time to time it doesn’t, we don’t know anything today that says we should have an unusual worries on the startup, so I have nothing that I know of at the moment but with an abundance of caution we thought it was appropriate to guide that, that the start-up is not risk free once we are through this next round of installation of pressure safety release valves and that’s the entirety of the story behind the contingency range that we put around that start-up.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
Got it, and Don I was just wondering if you could just update us on your discussions with the insurance companies and your recovery expectations and kind of once we get into this outer period where you be above your business interruption, insurance, how you are kind of thinking about that and how that’s kind of baked into guidance?
Donald Chappel:
Let’s say that now that the plant is substantially complete from a construction standpoint and we’re moving very quickly and toward the start-up most the facts are now very well-known and obviously we’ll continue to update our claim as we move through start-up. We’ve retained some expert consultants, if you will that are doing studies to support our claim. We plan to present those studies and conclusions to the insurers in the fall and we would be hopeful that, that would then start the next round of settlement discussions.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
And in terms of I think you mentioned previously that you expected to use your ATM kind of in 2014 to be largely at the equity markets and ‘15 at PZ I mean you put out kind of share count applying some meaningful equity issuance in the back half of the year. I just want to make sure that was kind of still your expectation that you do any incremental equity on the ATM this year and you’d be largely out of the markets at PZ next year?
John Dearborn:
Brian that in fact is the case again our car financing plans is pretty well unchanged obviously the drop down of the Williams owned assets is another factor and we’re looking to do that ideally post merger in the late ‘14 early ‘15.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
And then finally just I mean I think Cabot mentioned on their call some infrastructure issues that they were having which impacted their production in the quarter. I was wondering if you guys could just elaborate from your perspective what some of the issues were and kind of how the event resolves going forward?
James Scheel:
This is Jim Scheel I’ll comment on that again I listen to the earnings call too and I want to just reiterate, our performance quarter-over-quarter were 8% more than we were previous quarter and first quarter’s 4% more than the year end. So we’ve been continuing to grow volumes obviously, we have to do a fantastic job in coordinating volumes into this system. I think Cabot is probably relating more to the opportunities missed just by some coordination on scheduling gas because actually we were moving more than we have and again as the additional horsepower comes online during the third and fourth quarter this year, we’re going to see a rather rapid ramp up so that we finish the year about 34% more. So again I appreciate the concerns of the shippers but we continue to put some more gas through that system and are only accelerating that as we end the year.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
And just finally from me, in terms of any update in terms of timing on the ACMP/WPZ negotiations, is there any update from most recent disclosure?
Alan Armstrong:
Nothing new I would just tell you, the complex companies are working hard and have got, are very well advised and I think everybody understands the importance of moving ahead with it and with some diligence and that’s exactly what’s going on right now.
Brian Lasky – Morgan Stanley:
Thank you gentlemen.
Operator:
And next we’ll move on to Abhi Rajnandan with Credit Suisse.
Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse:
Hi good morning guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning Abhi.
Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse:
In your data book outlook for WMB you show a revised outlook at the excess cash flow available you went after the dividend step up which is around 28% for year through 2016. And it sounds like the remaining part of the deal will be may be modestly dilutive upfront and accretive beyond that so I guess how should we think about the current and potentially more excess coverage being brought down overtime once the entire deal is done?
Alan Armstrong:
Abhi again yes, we would expect some of that excess coverage to come off because one of the big considerations that Williams is making here is moving the distributions we received really took the ACMP schedule in terms of those ISR. So Williams is making I’d call a concession there to enable the merger and we think that that’s going to drive significant value long-term but certainly with some near term reduction in cash flows. However by ‘17 that really turns around we would expect to have a nice increase in accretion if you will, cash flow accretion on a per share basis. I hope that answers your question.
Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse:
Yeah I know, that helps. And then just a couple of other quick ones, at WPZ you have a shortfall this year of about 400 million between the DCF and distribution. So I guess how should we think about how you make this up is this just with capital raises or do you need any sort of support from WMB, any color there would be helpful?
Alan Armstrong:
We expect that WPZ’s financing plan is largely intact. I think at midpoint here, we moved the cash flow about $150 million and as well we do have, and anticipate the litigation settlement that we would expect would largely offset that in terms of cash so we think not a lot of change there. Going back to the cash flow, your first question, I would point out that our 2017 to 2019 cash tax guidance is an assumed rate of 14% and we would expect that to come down somewhat as we continue to add to our capital spending, as you can see our capital spending is about $4 billion this year and it declines to 2 billion unchanged by 2016, it’s because what we have in guidance is really sanctioned projects and we have a lot of projects, organic projects that we’re working on, those are added to guidance and those projects are placed in service that will continue to press that cash tax rate down somewhat, so just consider that as building your models. Right now, our run rate seems to be about in the $4 billion range and if you take that 25 billion and divide it by the six years you get about $4 billion a year and that’s pre-ACMP and they have been spending about $1 billion a year. So you can think about that as you think about our cash tax rate and while the rate looks to be fairly low remember that, that’s based on cash distributions received and if you look at it on a percent of pre-tax income which is more conventional, you’ll see the rates quite a bit higher.
Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse:
Okay got it that’s helpful and then just last quick one from me. On the Canadian projects, can you talk a little bit about what’s driving the shift back in CapEx and this is at the WMB and Petchem segment level, are these delays in locking down customers or just a slower than expected construction schedule, any color there would be helpful.
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah great question and particularly the PDH project is what I assume you’re referring to primarily and the other being the Syncrude and I would just tell you that, given the kind of increases that we are seeing in the Petchem space on engineering and construction side and the kind of demand we’re seeing on labor and we expect to continue to press forward we are working very hard to not get ourselves in a difficult situation relative to schedule and to make sure that we are pushing away from that risk as much as possible in terms of overruns because we do, as we look forward we see a lot of pressure on the skilled labor that it’s going to take the build out this infrastructure and so I would just tell you that we are making sure as we move forward in that we don’t get ourselves in a position where we’re relying upon thinner and thinner resources and lower and lower productivity and so that’s the primary cause.
Abhiram Rajendran – Credit Suisse:
Okay got it thanks very much.
Operator:
And we’ll move on to Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin – Goldman Sachs Group Inc:
Thanks. Just sticking with sort of Petchem and I guess bigger picture, do you see being in the petrochemical business as a core competence for you or do you think it is maybe distracting you from some of the maybe bigger midstream activities that you have, should we read in6to this PDH, maybe delay something around there, there’s some questions around what constitutes qualifying income I am just wondering if you can just talk about the value chain a bit more?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah sure. We continue to see the petrochem business as not, for William not being in the petrochem business for the sake of being in the petchem business frankly but really as a pull through and the market outlook for these NGL supplies and so certainly I would say it’s a little bit different between Canada and the Geismar facility because in Canada really we pursued that many years ago because mostly that’s a processing business we’re not actually reforming any molecules there that’s being done that the upgrades were simply above extracting that through typical cryogenic processing and then fractionating it just like we do in other sectors of our business. So in Canada I would tell you the competencies if you will are not very different and we have certainly got very strong competitive advantage there. But in both cases, Geismar and as we would move in the PDH, we continue to look at that as an outlook for products in a way for us to continue to provide market access for our customers that otherwise isn’t showing up. So I would tell you that’s how we think about it, and we certainly think about it in terms of being more fee based business. I think it is a very good question that you raised and certainly given the great number of opportunities that we have in front of us that’s always an issue of capital allocation for us. And as part of the reason that as I just answered before, part of the reasons that we’re making sure we don’t get ourselves into a difficult spot there in that piece of business because we do see a lot of pressure in getting that business built out particularly on the PDH facility. So in the end I would just tell you we continue to look at it as a place for us to expand market for us and for our customers I think it’s very nice complement to the ethane link that we’ve had for years and it’s a good place to provide market for our customers. And that’s kind of the extent of it in terms of how we look at it, we don’t look it at as being in the petchem business to be a petchem player.
Theodore Durbin – Goldman Sachs Group Inc:
Understood that’s very helpful. If I can just shift back to the Northeast, I am just wondering if you’re seeing any reaction by the producers to some of the gas price volatility and sort of that the price decline that you have seen recently. And especially some of the regional basis issues that clearly people are still have in there. It sounds like the issues have been more sort of physical and tie-in challenges and what not, but is there any sort of bigger reaction from producers from the gas we are seeing in the Northeast.
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah, no and to be fair I would say that given the kind of recent push down in price that’s just really just happened here, we’ve had we’ve doubts with it but it’s really just push down here over the last month or so I would say it’s a little bit early to call that frankly, but certainly the activities that we saw in the first half of the year are just now coming to fruition and there has been quite a flurry of activity on the drilling side both in the wet Marcellus to the dry Marcellus up in the North East and now starting with some of the dry Utica in the OVM area. And so in the first half of the year I would tell you that that’s been pretty strong. I think it’s a little bit early to call with this more recent weakness in natural gas if that’s going to slow much of that down. But so far we certainly haven’t seen any signs of that. And I would tell you I think the producers are getting, particularly in their OVM area are getting better and better at understanding what they’ve got there and are more and more excited about it. So we’ll see what happens, but I think it’s a little bit early to say we have seen any kind of reaction at this point.
Theodore Durbin – Goldman Sachs Group Inc:
Okay. And then just last one from me on constitution, any update on sort of the regulatory and permitting process there?
Alan Armstrong:
Not much to add there. I think we are very pleased with the way the FERC has continued to press forward on that and we are working hard to work with the New York DEC and communicate to them the importance of this infrastructure and the need to deal with the some of the water quality excuse me water crossing permits that the New York DEC has in their hands. So really kind a remains focused on that issue and I would say we’ve made progress but we haven’t solved that problem.
Alan Armstrong:
Okay, thanks. That’s it from me.
Operator:
And next we move onto Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Thanks good morning everybody. I think I’ve just got two questions left and then now on understanding and appreciating your comments around the Canadian PDH facility and labor inflation like. I think prior we were thinking that maybe this could come to a hit by year end and so just trying to kind of getting a little bit more color on what you were saying earlier. Is this something that we should just kind a think of now as more just on the back burner more of kind of on hold or is that still progressing?
Alan Armstrong:
Yeah not at all. There is tremendous amount of work, we have made great progress with the polypropylene take contract if you will that takes a quite a bit of price risk out of it. And I would just say both parties, both us and the party that have the polypropylene take are working diligently to make sure that we’ve got great confidence in our estimates and the work plan it would take constructed in a low risk manner. But I’ll tell you the work is probably at all-time high in terms of making sure that we are very confident of where we stand with the estimate and we do very much expect to conclude and have it pinned down by the end of the year. And so in no way you should consider it’s on the back turn or it’s just us absolutely making sure we de-risk it is as much as possible before we move forward.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Understood. Appreciate the clarification. And then just last question and maybe this is on Geismar with respect to the pressure scenarios that were studied. Clearly ethylene plants are not like processing plans. So I guess it’s not exactly a cookie-cutter approach here and what I am wondering is, is that to the extent that this plant has been rebuilt or perhaps studied now maybe with all the different scenarios that are out there from the safety standpoint, does this in anyway make Geismar, I hesitate to call it best-in-class because of what we have gone through, but as we kind of look forward from this point today, does that anyway help you distinguish yourself from other plants and then how ultimately does that perhaps help our hinder Geismar 2?
Alan Armstrong:
Yes, Carl good question. I would say we certainly are coming out of this much stronger than we went into it both from an operational focus and reliability and we have worked hard to really improve the older plant as well as making sure that those learnings were built into the new plant as well. I would tell you that probably the fact that we’ve got a team that’s been a right in the middle of a major construction project like this that’s also looking at Geismar 2. And so it’s not some distant memory of the lessons learned it’s kind of real and available, puts us in a very knowledgeable position to push forward with Geismar 2 if that’s what we choose to do. So I would say I am very thankful that we’ve got a team that is, and this has been a really tough project if you think about it, if you’re managing this major expansion project in the first place in and around a plant and then have the major explosion that isolates us from being able to complete the plant right in the middle of a project, that’s a project managers worse nightmare. And yet they have hung with it. So I would just say we’ve got a team that’s very schooled on what it takes to be successful as we look forward into Geismar 2 and certainly we all have a lot of confidence in pushing forward as we look to Geismar 2 opportunity.
Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Great, appreciate the comments. Thanks guys.
Operator:
And next we move onto Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC:
Hi good morning.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning Sharon.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC:
John I guess with regards to the dividend illustration you provided. Those tax rates do you anticipate those cash tax rates to change materially if the ACMP/WPZ transaction occurs?
Alan Armstrong:
No Sharon, we do not. So we don’t expect that to change. The distributions will change somewhat so there will be some effect. But we wouldn’t expect any material change in those tax rates as a result of that. I think right now they are driven largely by the placing assets and service. And we are in the middle of appraisal for both accounting and tax purposes. So there will be some adjustment of estimates along the way as we conclude both the accounting and tax appraisals to really key in this process.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC:
Okay. And then I guess just trying to gauge the potential for the exchange ratio to be renegotiated. Maybe if you could provide some color on some of the key factors, management considers when you determine the proposed exchange ratio?
Alan Armstrong:
Sharon we did some extensive modeling and really trying to come to a transaction that we thing was value adding both ACMP and WPZ unit holders for let trying to balance the considerations there. So obviously a lot goes into it, but that really was the design criteria we wanted it to be a transaction that we thought would be beneficial to both partnerships, really trying to strike that balance and that’s really what we put forth in our proposal.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC:
Okay. And just the last question. I guess given the IRS’s scrutiny on some of the non-core – activities in PLRs. At this juncture, is there any concern regarding the PLR for Geismar?
Alan Armstrong:
Not here, not at all.
Sharon Lui – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Alan Armstrong:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
And we’ll we move on to Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Good morning guys.
Alan Armstrong:
Good morning.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
So back to Geismar 2 prospects. Any further updates around the markets capacity to provide long-term fixed return contracting versus commodity exposed returns?
Alan Armstrong:
Don you want to take that.
Donald Chappel:
Yeah. I am glad to take that. Thanks very much. Not much has changed since Analyst Day, so just to reiterate where we are there we’ve got a very warm reception when we put our RFP out to the marketplace and our interest was oversubscribed quite significantly. What we are doing with this particular investment is we’re essentially trading off that commodity margin to the buyer of gasoline to our joint venture partner in exchange for a fee for service opportunity for WPZ in total concert with our strategy. And certainly the markets appetite given recent and current ethylene prices is quite warm to a provider that’s willing to provide on a fee per service basis. So we’re seeing very, very warm reception both on the JV side and on the ethylene purchase side or fee-for-service type arrangements.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Great. When do you see that, is that like a 2015 really 2015 period to try to true up some of those negotiations?
Donald Chappel:
Yeah, we’re going to work those negotiations through this year and into the early part of the next year I am sure. But I think the bigger emphasis here is very much aligned with Alan’s comments earlier about the PDH unit at the strategic level. So until we’re absolutely that we’ve got the right commercial deals lined up here and until we’re absolutely certain we know how we’re going to execute and derisk the capital project on an investment of this magnitude, we’re going to hesitate to rush our way into a sanction if I could call it that. So we will sanction only when we’re absolutely ready for both commercial and the project side.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Got it. And Don if I could return to the insurance recovery question. If I remember when I asked at the Analyst Day the comment was made that debates about recoveries has less to do with debates about what true commodity price should be versus taking best care in not only being safe but also being appropriately efficient and starting up again. Could the fact that you are now delaying start-up comfortably beyond the recovery period basically obviate that issue a little bit and make it to easier to achieve recoveries since you are kind of taking some of the dime on your own accord?
Donald Chappel:
Craig good question. Certainly the claim – our claim continues to get somewhat larger because we believe we’ve worked prudently to bring the plant back into service. Obviously insurers who have the money in their pockets argue against that but we think we have a very solid claim, we think that our outside experts will help us present our claim in a way that is compelling and we’re optimistic that we will receive a very substantial additional payments perhaps as early as late third and fourth quarter.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Okay. So you think that much of those could be resolved by the time the plant is actually up and running?
Donald Chappel:
No I think more likely it’s fourth quarter.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Okay.
Donald Chappel:
Yes the plant being up and running in the fourth quarter but with the target of October date it could take a bit longer than that is I guess my comment.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
I got you. And last question kind of a little broad spectrum and big picture. But we’ve got a couple of things going on with potentially a competing NGL line from the northeast to Belvieu maybe looking a little better prospect at the moment and also condensate exports looking more realistic than ever before. There is obviously competitive pressures for new business opportunities from all these types of events across your system I wonder if you all could just comment on any net positives or negatives from these types of events?
Alan Armstrong:
Well I guess if you are just asking generally about the competitive environment that we see out there I think we continue to see not see much impact from competition frankly we just have so many opportunities coming at us that, that’s probably why I want to say it’s the least of our worries, it’s certainly low on the list. And really if you think about some of the larger risk to the business it’s more around the macro environment and one thing we do compete for frankly we’ve become very aware obviously we comment for rigs from one basin to the next. And so I think having ACMP alongside gives us a little bit better diversification to that in terms of being exposed on big gas basins. But I would say that really the issue that keeps us focused on getting great market access for our customers and keeps us aligned with them frankly is that we desperately want to see good market access for the basins we’ve invested in and that’s obviously a service we would like to provide as well and providing better market access and better long-term markets for their products and so that’s how we’re continuing to go about that. But I would say on the competitive front that we’ve just got our hands so full with the opportunities that are coming to us and we’re uniquely positioned to win that we’re not having to stretch very far beyond that.
Craig Shere – Tuohy Brothers:
Great. I appreciate it.
Alan Armstrong:
Thanks.
Operator:
And our next question we will hear from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Christopher Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
Hey guys thanks a lot for taking my question. Don just curious I’d see the guidance for WMB effectively DCF but I don’t think that’s something that you reported along with quarter reports, so I am just curious if you could either for the second quarter sort of provide on the same schedule of how you would guide it. What the DCF or WMB entity was and is that something that on a go forward you are plan to report as part of the financial.
Donald Chappel:
Chris great question. We have not done that yet but we certainly expect to, so you can look for that next quarter.
Christopher Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
And any broad framework as to what it might have been for the quarter?
Donald Chappel:
I don’t have that number off hand and I don’t know if John has it but we can get it to you or we could post it on our website.
Christopher Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
Okay, great. That would be helpful. Thanks guys.
Donald Chappel:
I’ll just comment here again we’re going through a transition here with ACMP and that our acquisition of the additional interest will know cause us to consolidated ACMP beginning in the third quarter which will create some differences in reporting. Obviously we’ve done reporting on equity basis will be fully consolidated, we will be looking to gain significant gain in the third quarter to revalue our initial investment in ACMP, we will be looking some substantial and tangible assets and we will have some additional depreciation, amortization related to those assets as well. So just kind of a heads up and look forward to quite a bit different presentation you still get to the same bottom-line here in terms of cash flow but from a balance sheet than earning standpoint there will be some changes in the basis of presentation.
Christopher Sighinolfi – Jefferies:
Okay. Great, thanks Don.
Donald Chappel:
Welcome.
Operator:
And our last question today will come from Bradley Olsen with TPH.
Bradley Olsen – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for fitting me in I know we’re running a little bit late, so I really only got one question. Now that you’ve closed the ACMP general partner acquisition, can you comment on any ongoing efforts to retain key personnel from Access and kind of broadly speaking how successful those efforts have been?
Alan Armstrong:
Sure. That’s certainly something we very much value that organization and their capabilities and that was high on our list of things to accomplish. And so we did move swiftly and aggressively to do so and I think we’re with comfortable with where we’re right now on that front. And so what a great work by our teams here at Williams and the team at Access to really address where any of those issues might be and take care of them swiftly. So, I’d say we feel very good about where we stand today and I am you know particularly proud of both the organization coming together and work that so quickly.
Bradley Olsen – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Okay, great. So, broadly speaking I guess it’s fair to say that in the Utica and the northeast where Access is maybe most their capital is being deployed that he team is kind of largely in fact for a post acquisition?
Alan Armstrong:
That is correct.
Bradley Olsen – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Great, thanks guys.
Operator:
And will conclude today’s question and answer session I would like to turn the call back to Alan Armstrong for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan Armstrong:
Great, thank you. Thank you for all the great questions. As you can see, we are very excited about the future we have got in front of us and this team as you know I think just continues to generate momentum towards this vision that we have of really being de-premier player in this natural gas super cycle and very excited about the opportunities that keep coming at us and we keep executing on to accomplish that and we look forward to reporting to you in the third quarter with great continued progress and certainly at the balance of the year. Thanks for joining us today.
Operator:
And that will conclude today’s call. We thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John Porter Alan S. Armstrong - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director, Chairman of Williams Partners GP LLC and Chief Executive Officer of Williams Partners GP LLC James E. Scheel - Senior Vice President of the Northeast Gathering & Processing Operating Area Donald R. Chappel - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President John R. Dearborn - Senior Vice President of NGL & Petchem Services Allison G. Bridges - Principal Executive Officer and Senior Vice President of West Rory Lee Miller - Senior Vice President of Gulf & Atlantic Operations
Analysts:
Abhiram Rajendran - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S. Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division Christopher P. Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, everyone. Welcome to today's Williams and Williams Partners First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. John Porter, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
John Porter:
Thanks, Melanie. Good morning, and welcome. As always, we thank you for your interest in Williams and Williams Partners. Yesterday afternoon, we released our financial results and posted several important items on our websites, williams.com and williamslp.com. These items include yesterday's press releases with related schedules and the accompanying analyst packages, the slide deck that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong, will speak to momentarily and an update to our data books, which contain detailed information regarding various aspects of our business. In addition to Alan this morning, we also have the 4 leaders of our operating areas with us
Alan S. Armstrong:
Great. Thanks, John, and good morning to everybody. Thank you for joining us. Certainly excited to be reporting another great quarter and really on all key measures, but before we dig in to the quarterly results, I want to remind you that we remain very committed to our natural gas focus strategy and we continue to have -- and the strategy really continues to have us right in the middle of some great opportunities, and really, we couldn't be more excited about the way we're seeing the tailwinds build for the opportunities that we've positioned ourselves for. This has certainly been a wave that we've been seeing building for quite some time, and we think we've got ourselves in the perfect position to catch this wave. And certainly, as we see a lot of our major projects start to come on here in the last half of this year and really, for many years to come, we just got a tremendous wave of great projects that we've been working so hard on to get out in front of. So we certainly see it -- the wave building here in the first quarter and through our guidance period and then well beyond, and we look forward to talking about that well beyond certainly at our upcoming Analyst Day. So we are also well positioned to return this value to our shareholders for many years to come with our industry-leading dividend at WMB and as well, our solid and very visible distribution growth at WPZ. So today, we'll talk about the key measures for our first quarter results. We'll talk about the continued project execution and development that we've got ongoing, discuss the drivers for our '14 and '15 -- 2014 and 2015 guidance range. And I'll provide a little bit of color on Bluegrass, the current situation, which has improved for us dramatically at Opal, and then I'll briefly touch on our future growth. So as I did say, though, a lot of that future growth and a lot of opportunity to really dig into at our upcoming Analyst Day. So getting in here to the first quarter and looking at our very strong first quarter operating results. I think the real big keys for this quarter from my perspective is, one, first of all we're continuing to see our fee-based revenues drive. And so we saw a 9% increase over the prior year's quarter, and we continue see strength on that. We certainly had a tough winter, but I will tell you that our teams did a great job of driving reliable services and certainly, we had some production outages upstream of our systems, but for the most part, our teams were able to keep our systems up and running through -- and available through some very difficult winter time. So I want to commend our teams who really had some great focus on that this year and did an extraordinary job on that. Also, our 17% growth in DCF, which is really driven by the $63 million increase in the fee-based revenue growth and as well, the $8 million lower maintenance CapEx. And of course, that lower maintenance CapEx was really driven as well by a pretty harsh winter that made it hard for us to get out and get some of the work that we would have expected to get done in the first quarter done. You will see -- obviously, you'll see that those costs continue to build -- on the maintenance capital side will build here in the second quarter as things thaw out and we're able to get in to get a lot of that work done. So bottom line, great quarter, great start to the year with many large catalysts for growth ahead of us in the last half of '14 and certainly beyond '14. Moving on to the growth that we expect through our guidance period. This is something we're really excited about, greater than 50% growth in our DCF from 2013 to 2015. And of course, that really is on the backs of all of these big projects that we've been working so hard on and investing so much capital into. And you'll see a lot of that growth is going to be driven by about a $900 million increase in our fee-based revenues, comparing '13 to '15. And as well, though, I think something that's really impressive on this front. As we look at our cost structure, really, a pretty small increase in our cash operating expenses relative to the size of this growth because a lot of this growth is already built out in terms of our assets being well positioned in the Northeast and as well they're along a lot of our existing right of ways and just additive to our existing lines of business. So our increased cash cost is really not that high. So we see a nice increase in our margin over the period as well. For 2014, some of the drivers, they certainly remain the same. Certainly, we're very focused on the June restart at Geismar and also the successful recovery of our BI insurance proceeds, and those 2 things obviously go together, and so we continue to be very focused on that -- getting that done. And I would say on that front, John Dearborn is here to address more of that, but we're certainly still within the window that we've been describing and we'll be looking forward to starting probably in the last half of June. And I'll remind you, a startup isn't a simple push of the button, and we are starting to return systems, various auxiliary systems to -- into service as we speak. But again, a lot of work left to be able to get hydrocarbons into the facility and cracked. We're seeing a planned ramp-up in the drilling in the Northeast G&P area. We've got great tailwinds building behind this area, and certainly, the strong gas prices are a boost to that. And so we're pretty excited about how we're positioned there, but we do have a lot of growth in the plan, and Jim Scheel is here to address that. Finally, our commodity prices. We certainly have got a clear explanation of what we're at risk to there on our commodity prices. And I would tell you, the thing I've probably got my eye on the most, relative to our plan today, is higher gas prices, which, of course, would impact our processing margins in the short term. I think in the long term, that's a very strong positive force because it's going to continue to drive volumes, not just in the Northeast, but it'll drive volumes in the West as well. So I think that while we may see some short-term impact against our processing margin if we get above that average that we've got stated, I think we're pretty excited to see that because it's really going to drive the kind of growth in our basins and drive our volumes higher. Finally, ethylene prices are certainly an obvious driver, but nice to see the very significant improvement we've seen here in the last couple of weeks. And I'll tell you that John Dearborn and his team have done a pretty good job of calling that. And so we're excited to bring Geismar back up, right into running when there's a great need for those ethylene -- particularly around the Mississippi River front. In 2015, we get a big boost from all of the big 2014 projects being on for a full year. So you'll note, many of our big projects are coming on in the last half of year. So in '15, we get a full year of that. And then another round of fully contracted projects that come online in 2015, as Transco continues to connect these tremendous demands for the Marcellus supply into these markets that are rapidly expanding as well. So the great capital investment opportunities continue to be a big opportunity and certainly are going to drive a great cash flow growth. But I think looking to the next slide, an even more important change to WPZ really is the fact that because we've been investing using -- been funding so much of this growth on the equity side, now, we're going to be able to rebalance to the debt side as these big projects come online. And so as you can see here on this slide, titled growth plans, required minimum of WPZ equity and no WMB equity, that is really powerful for the whole story because, again, very limited needs for capital in the foreseeable future on WPZ because of all the equity we've issued, positioning ourselves over the last couple of years. And so for '14, all we're seeing is a little bit of entrance into the ATM space on the equity side and then no equity planned for 2015 at WPZ. So a great reward coming back to our equity side of our balance sheet. Moving onto the next slide here. Relatively modest growth in the WPZ CapEx. This is driven by the recently announced 1.2 Bcf a day contract to serve Cheniere Sabine Pass LNG facility. We're very excited to capture that business, and a very nice piece of business for us because a pretty limited capital for the size of the market that we're capturing there. And that's a very long term, well-secured contract, so we're very excited about that. And then as you can see in WMB, a fairly significant reduction in capital driven by us pulling Bluegrass from our capital plans at this point. So we certainly continue to believe the Bluegrass pipeline is a great project. We certainly think it's the best long-term solution in the marketplace for getting all these growing NGLs from the Northeast, from both the Utica and the Marcellus, into the Gulf Coast. But however, we're not going to stick our necks out for the sake of the industry on that. We've got great projects in our wheelhouse and a lot of tremendous opportunity. They just put us in a very envious position of not having to stretch for that project. And so we certainly hope that Bluegrass or something like it gets built for the sake of the space, but that's really going to be up to the shippers and producers to determine if they want to support a project like that. So we remain ready and able to push ahead on that project but are plenty happy with all the great long-term contracted business we're getting in the other sectors of our business. Moving on to looking at few of the milestones that -- and the challenges here among executing large-scale, value-creating projects here on Slide 6. And really, this is really just a highlight, a few of the milestones and challenges that we are tackling this year. And this slide really is just the top of the wave of all the growth that we're executing on this year. On the next slide, you'll see some of the bigger projects moving forward. So a few things I want to highlight, though, here. First of all, on Transco, boy, what a great position we continue to enjoy on Transco. And it's not just moving the Marcellus and the Utica supplies out of the Northeast. It's really being driven, even in a larger scale, by market growth on our system. And so just here in the past last couple of weeks, we've announced major progress on 1.9 Bcf a day of new markets just in the Southeast. So that doesn't include a lot of the market expansions we're seeing that go with Atlantic Sunrise, and with Rockaway and Virginia Southside. This is just the Southeast markets proper, so 1.9 Bcf a day. And in fact, we really are going to be working to make sure we keep the supplies delivering to these projects, like the Dalton Lateral, the Gulf Trace project that we've mentioned a while ago and as well, the Mobile Bay South III, which adds about $325 million a day to meeting some critical gas generation loads in the Southeast. On Gulfstar, I just want to really give a big shout-out to our team on the E&C side on this one. They really pulled it together with some great designs, some great plannings on the Gulfstar operations to get that spar set. We got that spar set in an offshore window of about 4 weeks and that is, according to the experts we deal with out there that are in the business of setting a lot of this, a record for getting in and out of the major offshore campaign there. So that does not come with luck. That comes with great planning, and I'm just very proud of our team and the way they executed on that. We're also very excited because we think this is going to be a huge success for Hess and Chevron on their Tubular Bells prospect, and we think with that kind of success comes more. And we think is going to be a great project for them as they look back and look at the project returns they're going to gain out of this. But it also helps other customers in the area, like Nobel, and we're helping them deliver Gunflint, an extremely attractive schedule and returns for that project for them as well. And so this is exactly what we're hoping to do is to help create great value for both our customers and for our shareholders at the same time, and Gulfstar is a great example for that. Regarding several of the incidents that we've had lately. So first of all, our Opal gas processing facility. And as you'll notice, we did bring back 2 of those trains back overnight and we are -- that we -- we'd shut those down last week following the fire at the facility. Those facilities weren't damaged in any way, but just as an abundance of caution, we had shut that down, make sure we inspected everything and make sure we were safe before we came back into service out there. We have 2 other trains that also were not damaged in the fire and that is trains 4 and trains 5. And with those 4 trains on, we have adequate capacity to serve all of our existing business out there. So we'll be working hard to get Trains 4 and 5 back on, but we're going to make sure that we do it safe first, and that's what we're focused on right now. So I think regarding these incidents, Williams, we've always been very focused on being safe and being reliable. And certainly, this has come as a big surprise to our organization. I can tell you this has my full attention and the attention of our board as well. We're conducting very thorough investigations into each incident and see -- determine if there's any common or root cause that's common to these incidents. And I'll tell you one thing that is common, which is a bit surprising perhaps is that these historically have been some of our safest facilities when you look at typical industry standards for safety. And certainly have been -- had gotten high marks from regulators previously, kind of across-the-board. So anyway, that's the one thing that's common, but we're looking hard to determine what other contributing factors may be out there and to make sure what we're doing as an enterprise, to make sure that we're doing our business in as safe a manner as possible. Not just for our own benefit, but -- and our employees' benefit, but to the industry's benefit as well. So you'll expect that -- you should expect to hear a little more on that on our safety performance at the upcoming Analyst Day as well. And then one final note on this slide, I just like to commend the team at ACMP and Access Midstream, continue to drive great performance for us, and that is certainly continuing to drive our growth in '14 and beyond. Looking to slide -- to the next slide here, certainly a very large increase in our projects and just tremendous backlog that we're building here. A couple of things you can pull off of this slide. First of all, you'll see a line drawn in between our WMB projects -- or sorry, at the top, our WPZ projects, and then we draw line toward the WMB projects. And you can see, we continue to develop a pretty significant backlog of drop-down opportunities for WPZ at the WMB level. And so that should -- certainly should not be missed. And as well, I will tell you, this is really just a result. This long backlog of great contracted projects is really the fruits of sticking to our strategy and being very focused around catching this wave of natural gas market growth, both on the supply and the demand side. Our -- we think by far, we have the best visible contracted growth and it's certainly well beyond any of the other large-cap midstream players, including Kinder, Enterprise or Energy Transfer. And much of this growth is driven off of our very well-positioned assets and the kind of investments we've made over the last several years, gaining our position that we have today. Our strategy, we think, is very much in line with our customers and the -- their access to markets, and that's driving a lot of our benefit as well. And then we remain very, very focused on connecting the very best supplies in North America to the very best markets, both for natural gas and for the natural gas derivatives that are coming, because those are obviously low cost into the markets they serve as well. So a very attractive set of backlog here. And I'll tell you, this continues to grow and it really just continues to present opportunities for us to allocate capital to the very best projects. Moving to the final slide here. Certainly going to continue right along our strategy, and this great line of sight that we have to the major growth. We continue to contribute beyond guidance in terms of new projects and new growth. And we really look forward to talking to you about that at our Analyst Day. And finally, I'll just say, we're focused on the business that's going to be there for the long haul. We're not just focused on the opportunity du jour. We're really focused on where we can gain a competitive advantage and reward our shareholders not just in the short term, but a great focus on sustainable investments that are supported by long-term market trends and competitive advantages. And so we think that will continue to generate opportunity for not just years but decades, given the kind of position that we're staking out in the space, and we're very excited about what that means for our shareholders, long-term. And so with that, I'll turn it over for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll go to Abhi Rajendran with Crédit Suisse.
Abhiram Rajendran - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Just a couple of quick questions. First, on Northeast G&P. So your segment profit in 1Q was $12 million, but you also maintained your full year guidance of $195 million, which suggests a pretty meaningful ramp up. So could you maybe just talk a little bit about some of the puts and takes driving this? And also what some of the main risks may be to this ramp?
James E. Scheel:
Hi, this is Jim Scheel. Thanks for the question, Abhi. As we looked at this winter, this has been one of the worst winters we've had in the Northeast, and I know over the course of the last few meetings about the reliability of the OVM system in particular, there have been some challenges with that. Those, we didn't face this year. And so volume challenges that we had were more on the producer side versus the asset side that we're operating. So we're very excited about having a reliable system ready to move gas, especially in this market of ever-increasing prices for our customers. We see a rather rapid ramp-up of volume over the course of this year. Obviously, we saw a 2% growth between the fourth quarter and the first quarter. But I want to remind you, Abhi, that during the fourth quarter of last year, we had some incremental volumes coming into OVM due to the Natrium fire. Those did not materialize or weren't in there during the first quarter of this year and we still saw an increase. As we move through the course of the year, I would expect our volumes to be slightly under perhaps what we've shown on our spreadsheets as the $335 million average, but I want to emphasize, we'll probably end the year with a much -- with above the $400 million that we're showing. So I'm excited about the assets' ability to move the volumes, to reach those goals. One of the key risks that we may need to look at is related to the Chevron well pad fire and how they react to that with bringing volumes online later in the year.
Donald R. Chappel:
This is Don Chappel. Just to add to Jim's comments, I'd also just remind you that, again, we're bringing a number of processing and frac facilities online during the year. And even on the volumes -- on the growing volumes, those will provide additional fees. So we'll not just get the volume growth, but we'll get additional fees for additional servicing.
James E. Scheel:
To add to that, that's a great point, Don, is we'll be bringing on a number of facilities around the OVM very quickly. We've -- we're already starting the pre-commissioning of these assets that include the stabilizer. That'll provide a much larger netback for our producers around their -- around their stabilized condensates. The deethanizer, I want to add, that's going to be a great asset for our customers. Again, we've had some restrictions in the ability to get product into the interstate pipelines because of ethane content over the course of the last couple of months. With the deethanizer online, that will no longer be an issue. It will allow basically unfettered flow out of the assets into the interstates. And then as we bring on additional capacity on the West Side of the system with the 24-inch line coming in, we're excited about the ability to fill up our cryos and continue the execution of building more cryos at the Oak Grove facilities as we move forward.
Abhiram Rajendran - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay, great. And then just shifting gears a little bit, just a broader question on maintenance spending. So this appears to be trending lower over the coming years despite kind of more projects being put into place, but we've also seen some of the operational problems that you referenced. So I guess, how should we think about all of this? Do you need to spend more going forward? Or efficiencies making up for it? Any color here would be very helpful.
Alan S. Armstrong:
Yes, sure, Abhi. I would just tell you that if you look over time, we've been at the -- I'm not sure if it's good or bad, but we've been in the lead in having more maintenance capital as a percentage of our EBITDA if you look back over the last 4 years or so, and that is really just driven by our focus on making absolutely sure that we're spending dollars wherever we can to improve safety and reliability on our systems. We'll continue to do that. I would just tell you that we got a lot of work out of the way, a lot of big, expensive work done out of the way in terms of -- in 2012, and that's for a number of reasons, some regulatory required, but as we inspected our lines, we went to the areas where we thought we would have the worst conditions on our systems, and as we've moved off of that group, obviously, we get to the newer and newer systems and the systems with less potential anomalies in it. And so our cost per mile of inspected pipe is coming down dramatically on us because we're getting into the better and better pipes. So we saw kind of a big run up there in '11 to '12, driven by things like the Clean Air Act and some pipeline inspection rules. And that was really kind of driving that. So not telling you that you should expect that to continue to go lower because we don't have that built into our plan. But so far, just the things that we've been hitting lately as we inspect our pipes, we've had less repairs required. So we basically have to forecast what we do expect to find with our in-line inspection tools. And our pipeline inspections, we basically have to estimate how much of that we'll have to repair, and that's been coming down over time, just again, because we're into the better -- some of our better-conditioned pipe.
Abhiram Rajendran - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay, got it. And then one last quick one, if I may. So I guess one of the emerging debates in the industry is the viability of the export market for ethane, and you guys are in a unique position to kind of evaluate this. So could you maybe just your thoughts on this in terms of where the supply-demand balance is headed longer term in your view? How do you know -- how big of a market you think this could be? Any color there would be great.
Alan S. Armstrong:
Yes, Abhi. I'm going to ask John Dearborn. He is quite the student of that issue. And I'm going to ask him to offer his thoughts on that.
John R. Dearborn:
Yes. Hi, Abhi. Thanks very much. It is an interesting idea. It think I'm a bit schizophrenic on the idea of this, so let's talk about both sides. From one perspective, you'd really like to see some better price signals out there on ethane so the necessary infrastructure gets built and you get supply reliability to the industry, to the petrochemical industry, which, of course, we're a participant of, but of course, that could mean ethane prices going up. So moving some ethane offshore I think begins to increase some of the demand, which perhaps begins to create a better balance there so that we do get the infrastructure that provides the supply reliability, which then assures on the demand side that people continue to invest capital. On a very positive note, though, that -- and I can't speak to the project that was recently announced. But on a very positive note to projects like this, I think there's also an opportunity because there are some shortages out there in the world for ethylene that we could export some ethylene from some of these ethane facilities. And I think that bodes well for the ethylene balance in North America, which would be a very positive dynamic for us with our investment at Geismar today. So I see a fair bit of positive there. Exactly how big the market is going to be for ethane export, that's a difficult challenge, a difficult question to answer right now. But I do see positive dynamics on the -- potentially on the ethylene site.
Operator:
We'll go next to Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.
Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Just a maybe a micro and a macro question. First, on the micro side with respect to Geismar. And Don, perhaps this is for you. With -- if you could just give us an update on when you see the next tranche of insurance recoveries coming? And I guess, perhaps an associated question is to the extent that what was in the first quarter adjusted EPS was a relatively large healthy number for Geismar, given that amount, do you see business interruption actually being sustained through the outage period? Or are we going to see a little bit of a gap between that ending and the plant coming back online?
Donald R. Chappel:
Good morning, Carl. In terms of the next tranche of cash, I would expect we'll see some cash in the second quarter. We've made an application with the insurers for the next period of loss and it's going through their process. So I would expect we'll see some cash in the second quarter. I think we've disclosed that our business interruption insurance combined with our property damage insurance would substantially offset the down time. We think that's still the case. Exactly what that is will be dependent on the Geismar -- I'll call them pro forma margins, had Geismar has been up and running, and as well as our negotiations with the insurance companies. But I don't think anything has really changed. I think we're about where we were the last time we talked.
Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Fair enough. And then maybe macro question for Alan. And this might perhaps start getting into 2016 thoughts, but I just wanted to get a little bit more color on the ramifications perhaps of not doing Bluegrass. In the sense of do you think that for instance what had happened with Atlantic Sunrise, where you had to see that train hitting the market before people were willing to sign onto long-term contracts. Without Bluegrass, do see perhaps the industry needing to get hit first before we will see longer-term contracts? But ultimately, I'm trying to kind of get to are you more nervous than before perhaps of 2016 drilling activity? I know that's kind of an open-ended question, but any additional color there would help.
Alan S. Armstrong:
Carl, great questions, as always. I would just tell you that, certainly, I think that there's a lot of people kind of counting on somebody else solving the problem as it relates to Bluegrass. And frankly, we're not going to be the ones to do that for the whole industry without adequate contractual support. And -- but yet, we still believe that something needs to get done. We're very interested in seeing the very best project available to the market come forward and get subscribed, and whether it's Bluegrass or whether it's a combination of other projects, we're not all that jealous of the opportunity, frankly, just because we have so many other great investment opportunities, and very well contracted opportunities. But we certainly think that something -- a solution does need to get resolved. Used an interesting term there to say that the train that we would have to hit out here. And I would just tell you that, that is going to be issue is people are going to understand in the not-too-distant future that railing all of this product out of the area is just not going to be a sustainable solution. But I think that's kind of what's got the market thinking it can continue to ignore the longer-term issue at this point. So we're going to remain very engaged in the subject for both our own project and for other potential projects that might come along. And we'll certainly stand by, ready with Bluegrass for the industry, if it becomes adequately supported by contract. You are correct. I do see this a little bit like Atlantic Access, where the market just wasn't quite ready for it and just didn't feel the pain quite enough yet. And I do think that as we get into this summer and into next winter, when a lot of this new production and these -- starts to ramp up. As for our forecast, our forecast that we see through Access and our forecast that we see through Blue Racer, we see a lot of liquids coming into the market and we're certainly hopeful that we can get a project supported that will not deter drilling in 2016 because this is some tremendous resource out here. And we're going to have to work as an industry to come up with the right market access, and we certainly look forward to being a part of that.
Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Great. And then just to sort of paraphrase back, though. You're thinking that with the supply models that you all are seeing, that we could in fact see that pain as early as next winter?
Alan S. Armstrong:
I'd -- yes, if you look at the ramp-up in volumes that we're expecting, I think we will see some pretty big improvement in volumes.
Operator:
We'll go next to Christine Cho with Barclays.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
I noticed last quarter that your ownership in Caiman Energy II had moved higher, and this quarter's data book confirmed an incremental 11%, it looked. Can you talk about who sold and was management included? Also, can you discuss how the exit plans of the private equity guys work? Do you have the right of first refusal and then it goes to Dominion and then any third parties?
Donald R. Chappel:
Christine, this is Don Chappel. We had an option in our Caiman II deal to increase our ownership by funding a proportion of the amount of the capital investments. So we chose to act. We had a good look at the -- how the business was developing. We liked what we saw, so we exercised our option to invest a greater amount than our partners and increase our ownership accordingly. So we did that. In terms of the exit, we have a right of first offer on the sale, so we'll see what the sellers choose to do.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay, great. We noticed some of the majors receiving permits in Marshall and Wetzel Counties in first quarter, the very end of fourth quarter. But I was unable to tell if they was Utica or Marcellus. Can you provide any insight into any updates on their plans to develop the acreage? Also, one of the majors also had an impressive well in Utica in Marshall County. Can you talk about what that may mean for you on a near-term and longer-term basis if the play is as great as IP rates could suggest?
James E. Scheel:
Sure. This is Jim Scheel. I'll let the majors speak for themselves as far as any specifics related to their forecasts. But I will say, generically, we've had a number of folks in our offices talking about the additional drilling specifically around the Utica dry. I would say there's an upside opportunity for us at OVM to be gathering some of that Utica dry gas into our system, gathering that for them. We have some extra capacity at the plants today, so that wouldn't impact our liquids volumes to provide us with some near-term additional opportunity. Right now that's not baked into our plans, but I think what you'll see is, as folks are delineating that dry side, you'll see more and more permits issued, so they get a better feel for what they have in that particular area.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay. And then I noticed you've started to kind of put Pacific Connector in your slides. It's looking like the probability of Jordan Cove, its moving forward, is getting higher. And something that I thought was interesting was that we've seen some pipeline projects for other LNG facilities contingent on the LNG projects receiving FERC approval and not necessarily FID. For you, can you discuss a little bit what has to happen for you guys for it to move out from under the potential project umbrella and into development?
Allison G. Bridges:
Yes, certainly. This is Allison Bridges. Yes, we are very excited for all of the progress that we are seeing on Jordan Cove and Pacific Connector. We have nonbinding agreements with shippers, so that would really exceed the total capacity. Before we would be ready to, I guess, move to approval for that project, we will be looking to turn those nonbinding agreements into binding agreements. We are hopeful that we will get the FERC certificate, perhaps by the end of this year or early next year. So that is another major milestone. I will say, with respect to the FERC certificate, the route that we have on Pacific Connector was actually previously approved by FERC, so we think it's just a matter of timing on that.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Well, I wasn't actually talking about FERC approval for the pipeline. I was talking about the FERC approval for the LNG project. But it sounds like, for you, it's just -- it has nothing to do with the LNG projects you're seeing, FERC or FID. It's, the customers just have to contract with you.
Allison G. Bridges:
No. I mean, we certainly are working jointly and expect the same FERC approval timing and customer commitments for both Jordan Cove and Pacific Connector.
Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay. And then last question for me, the Gulf Trace project, is that like just Zone 3 max rates? Is that how we should think about that?
Alan S. Armstrong:
Rory, you want to take that please?
Rory Lee Miller:
Yes. This is -- Christine, this is Rory Miller. That project is a -- it's a negotiated rate. It will eventually be rolled in, and so it's a little bit lower than what the postage stamp rate would be, and therefore, it's required to be rolled in.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Just wanted to talk about use of cash a bit at WMB now that you've canceled Bluegrass. How should we think about the disposition there, whether it's the path of the dividends? Maybe it's M&A or obviously, you do have a big backlog of projects that you're developing potentially up at WMB. Can you talk us through that?
Donald R. Chappel:
Ted, this is Don. Yes, one, we do have -- obviously, we have dividend, but in terms of the excess cash flow at Williams, beyond the 20% annual dividend increase that we've guided to, we do have some projects that are in development that we've highlighted here. And that cash is earmarked for those projects. Beyond that, we'll have a high-class problem of choosing whether or not we have any additional projects or if we just roll that cash into an even greater dividend. So we're moving more and more to a, call it, pure-play HoldCo model. And as WPZ financial capacity grows, we would expect more of the organic growth to be funded at WPZ and less so at Williams. And again, so moving more and more the a GP HoldCo, where Williams can put all -- substantially all of our excess cash flow into the business.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And then if I can ask about Geismar 2, can you just give us some more color about what that exactly is? Is it an expansion? Is it a greenfield? How big is it? What's the capital? Just maybe some rough numbers there.
John R. Dearborn:
Yes. Thanks for the question. Geismar 2 is we're out in the market right now trying to assess the market's interest in participating in an investment there. Our concept, and we're going to be talking more about this at the analyst meeting coming up or analyst day coming up in New York, but our concept there is to build a cost advantage, large cracker. It would be greenfield. We have expanded Geismar, if I could call it Geismar 1 for the moment, about as big as Geismar 1 could be expanded. I think we're about done with expansion save for perhaps some incrementals there. So that's a concept between -- about what we're thinking on this -- another investment on the river in ethylene.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
But you would do it as a JV? Or you would do it, a standalone by yourself?
John R. Dearborn:
Yes, the current concept is we're considering a JV with perhaps 1, at most 2, other partners that would build derivative capacity alongside it, so creating new demand. And then we would take our volumes and sell them into the market on a fee-for-service basis.
Theodore Durbin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I see, okay. And then if I can just ask one more. As we're thinking about Transco and the ultimate -- and the growth in the Marcellus, even in the Northeast, as you look out 3 to 5 years here and the ability to do backhauls down to the Southeast, what do you think is the ultimate capacity that Transco could move in that direction? And then maybe can you talk about the incremental capital you might need to spend to achieve that throughput?
Alan S. Armstrong:
Rory, could you take that please?
Rory Lee Miller:
Yes, I'd be happy to take that. With -- if you think over the last couple of years, we've had a series of projects that were primarily designed to move Marcellus supply into the traditional market areas on Transco. The first ones are Northeast Supply Link. The second one was Leidy Southeast. The third was Constitution. Now that's not impacting the Transco system at all, but it's certainly pulling reserves out of that area. And then the fourth project is Atlantic Sunrise. And all of those projects -- or at least the 3 Transco projects, had the feature of taking advantage of some of the latent capacity or latent capabilities that existed on the system to be backhauled or to be designed to change the flow from north to south. As we start moving beyond the volumes that we currently have contracted, the costs do start to go up. And so I think the big question there is where's the market for service for producers in that area to get to an end user that they can contract with, take their gas. And the market's going to have to be higher than, say, the market that was established for Atlantic Access for us to do more. However, if you start looking at new greenfield projects out of the area, you'll be looking at rates far in excess of the rates that we contracted for in Atlantic Sunrise. So I know that's a little bit unclear on -- as to the question you asked, but on a per-unit basis, the capital required is going to be higher on future projects than it has been on the projects in the past.
Operator:
We'll go next to Sharon Lui with Wells Fargo.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
With regards to Bluegrass, do you anticipate that this could be a project you would revisit within a year or 2? And I guess, do you have the contracts set up with Boardwalk to enable you to do this. Especially on, I guess, their ability to, I guess repurpose part of their pipeline?
Alan S. Armstrong:
Yes, certainly, we have a great relationship with Boardwalk, and I would tell you that we're working to make sure that if there is a project there that makes sense, we're -- we got the ability to move forward with the project. And at the same time, Boardwalk's got the rights -- under certain conditions, has the rights to utilize that capacity for gas if they see a demand or a higher value in that direction after a certain period of time here. And so I think we've struck the right balance between us in terms of how to move forward on the project. And so I think it's really kind of a matter of time. I think for the meantime, I think there is plenty of alternative uses or alternative ways to move gas south and quite a bit of capacity to do that on various lines, including the existing -- 2 other existing Texas gas lines that would still be in gas service. So -- or on Boardwalk's system. So I would leave that to Boardwalk to answer a little more -- in a little more fine manner. But from our vantage point, we've struck the right balance that allows us to keep Bluegrass on the table and also, under certain conditions, allows them to move forward with something that makes sense for Boardwalk.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. And I guess, any estimate on the potential financial impact of the Opal incident?
Donald R. Chappel:
Sharon, this is Don. We expect a $10 million impact on property damage with the excess property damage covered by insurance. We expect the -- I'll call it the business interruption loss to be very modest, particularly given that we already have 2 of the plants back up in operation, and we're hopeful that we can bring the other 2 undamaged plants into operation in the not-too-distant future. So expect $10 million in property damage and a very modest loss related to the downtime.
Sharon Lui - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And any update on the regulatory front for Constitution and perhaps the timing of that project?
Alan S. Armstrong:
Rory, you want to take that?
Rory Lee Miller:
Sure. Yes, on Constitution, we have started getting into some of the typical project milestones. The FERC issued a favorable draft environmental impact statement back on February 12, and they'd asked for comments by April 7. A lot of parties were asking to get that date extended. The FERC did not do that and held fast with their schedule, and we appreciated that. I would say, in general, that the FERC has been very workmanlike in terms of laying out a plan and sticking to it. So we're very satisfied with what the FERC has been doing so far. They've been trying to, I think, do their part in terms of helping us get the projects built. Right now we're working with FERC and the New York DEC in a coordinated fashion to try to get any of the remaining questions answered and the details checked off with the hope that we're going to get a final decision sometime later this year. But it is part of a process, and I'd say it's moving well. But at the end of the day, there's probably more things that are uncontrollable in terms of going through the regulatory process than there are in terms of doing just the actual physical construction. In terms of in-service date, I think right now I'd say that what we've guided so far is -- those are still good assumptions.
Operator:
We'll hear next from ISI Group, Timm Schneider.
Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
I just had a follow-up question on the maintenance CapEx. Obviously, it was $36 million. In Q1, you addressed so many weather issues. But if I go off your full year guidance of $340 million, does that kind of imply -- I just want to get the arithmetic right, that this actually jumps to $100 million over the next 3 quarters?
Alan S. Armstrong:
It actually -- if you look at our pattern of spending on that, Timm, you'd see that second quarter is always kind of our highest because we've got a lot of work going on, kind of winding up, waiting for a thaw out. And so I would say, generally, you'll see our heaviest spending on maintenance capital in the second quarter followed by fairly high third quarter, and then it tends to taper off in the fourth quarter because winter starts to impact our ability to get work done there again. So I think if you look back to our historical patterns, that's what you should expect.
Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
But there's no change at this point to that $340 million?
Alan S. Armstrong:
That's -- that is correct.
Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And then next question, on OVM, can you just kind of give us a sense of what utilization rate these assets were running at in the first quarter and what is kind of implied to get to your 2014 guidance?
James E. Scheel:
Well, OVM was running, during the first quarter of this year. We -- let me look at this real quick. We were running at about 271 a day. We obviously have a lot more capacity coming online than that. I'm really not focused on the capacity issue right now. We can take everything that customers can bring to us. We're anticipating having that growing to over 400 by the end of the year. What I'm the most focused on as it relates to capacity really are those issues related to the new assets coming online this year. That will help us both from increasing our fee-based revenue to also maximizing our customer netbacks. And so as you can see the second and third quarter come online with those incremental assets, that's what we'll be really focusing on. And then we'll be taking all the gas that the customers can produce out of OVM.
Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And last question for me is on Atlantic Sunrise, is there any read-through on the regulatory front that you guys have picked up from Constitution versus that? Or is it just a completely different ballgame because it's more looping and just compression?
Alan S. Armstrong:
Yes, Timm, I'll take that. First of all, I think one of the major differences is we're dealing primarily with a big chunk of that, will be through the state of Pennsylvania. And I would tell you the state of Pennsylvania has been very businesslike and approached things in a fashion that's very cooperative. And so I think that's probably one of the biggest differences frankly. It is not all along existing right of way, though, just to be clear. There is some greenfield route coming south of the Leidy diamond, if you will, or the Leidy lateral. Where it ties back into our main line is a greenfield. And so we certainly will have routing issues to deal with there that we don't get to enjoy along with looping our existing lines. So there is some existing looping on there, but there's also some greenfield expansion there. But I would just say the area that we're going through does not deal with some of the New York DEC permitting issues that we're facing on Constitution.
Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
And actually, I have one more quick one. In the slide deck, you moved the opportunity set you outlined with PEMEX in the Atlantic-Gulf segment from 2019 to kind of 2017. And I was just wondering if you could talk about those opportunities in a bit more detail.
Alan S. Armstrong:
Sure. That is gaining some steam I would say. I think PEMEX is very focused on developing those deepwater reserves in a very timely manner for a number of reasons I think. I think their elections are in 2018, and I think they certainly want to show that. But I would remind you there that, that 2017 is actually 2017 plus, so not as big a change that we were intending to indicate there. But I would say, at the same time while you ask the question, that they are going to try the accelerate that as much as possible, and that's why a project like or system like Gulfstar, with our existing pipelines in the area and our capabilities, is really important to that in terms of speed to the market. So we're very excited to be positioned well for that opportunity.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.
Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division:
On WPZ and your discussion of not issuing any equity in 2015 and minimal equity in 2014, can you talk about how far you're willing to lever up at WPZ in terms of debt to EBITDA?
Donald R. Chappel:
Now Becca, this is Don. That implies, call that, up to a 4x debt-to-equity -- excuse me, debt-to-EBITDA ratio, so again, well within the BBB investment-grade band that WPZ enjoys. So really nothing in terms of levering up. It's just really the cash flows are growing at such a rapid rate that it creates substantial additional debt capacity.
Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division:
And does that -- can we translate that over to WMB? And can you discuss your willingness to go non-investment grades there?
Donald R. Chappel:
I think our position is that this management team and the board chosen to maintain investment grade at Williams, and that's where we're at. But having said that, we'll certainly always be open to looking at what kind of value we can create and balance that with risk. But again, the management team and the board have chosen investment grade at both WPZ and Williams. So it mitigates some risk during more challenging financial times, and puts Williams in a more opportunistic position during challenging financial times. And while things are rolling pretty nicely in the capital markets, we know that, on a pretty regular basis, the high-yield market does shut down. So that's the advantage that having both WPZ and Williams at investment grade provides us.
Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division:
And then last question is on -- once again on the Northeast volumes and your guidance for the year. The $195 million of EBIT for the year, it's -- should we start to see a material ramp-up in the second quarter? Or is this going to be very much a back-end loaded kind of thing?
James E. Scheel:
Again, this is Jim Scheel. As we look at the second and third quarters, just again to reemphasize, we'll be bringing on substantial new assets during the end of the second quarter. That would be driving additional fee-based revenue. We do see a pretty significant ramp-up during the second -- or during the third and fourth quarter. I've mentioned earlier, I think, in our package that we've provided, we're showing an average of about $335 million a day for OVM. I think that will be a little bit short of that as far as the yearly average goes. Right now we're anticipating about $327 million but ending the year at a much higher rate. So in excess of the $400 million that we're showing there is our current thoughts around that. So yes, we do have a pretty significant ramp-up. And I think that's in line with what you see from others, whether that be ACMP or Blue Racer also showing pretty significant volume growth, as producers take advantage of this gas environment we're in today.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Bradley Olsen with Tudor, Pickering.
Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division:
I just want to stay on the Northeast and maybe push a little bit harder on Timm's question, which was related to the utilization rate. Just trying to tie together the kind of disparate commentary that you hear from the upstream and your midstream peers in the Marcellus. We're hearing some midstream guys talk about utilization rates for processing assets in the Marcellus that are kind of in the 60% to 70% range. But at the same time, we're hearing upstream guys continue to mention that they do have wells that are waiting on pipe or stuck behind infrastructure constraints. And so maybe just to kind of go back to that question of utilization rate and just to make sure I understand Jim's comments, talking about the $327 million a day average moving to above $400 million by the end of the year. Am I right in thinking that that's -- you've got the $500 million at Fort Beeler, another $200 million at Oak Grove by the end of this year and I should kind of think of utilization in excess of $400 million across that asset base?
James E. Scheel:
That's right. Not to -- again, I haven't really focused on the ultimate capacity of the system. We're working to fill up what we've got today. But as we look at Oak Grove coming online with TXP-1, we've got the ability to add significantly more cryo capacity at that facility. We can have up to 10 cryos at that facility. We have a great piece of flat land. We'll talk to you a little bit more about this at analyst day. But when I think of the total capacity for the OVM system, were really in excess of 2 Bcf a day. So it's really -- we will be able now, with these foundational assets, to stay ahead of our customers. And so as we see their drilling profiles coming online, we'll be adding additional infrastructure if necessary. It's not going to be near as much pipe. We'll be connecting to the CRPs, making sure that we have the processing and the compression in place in order to meet their needs. And what is so nice now is where we have struggled in the past around some of those challenges, as we've come into 2014, we're well positioned to do that. Customers have recognized the increased reliability and our ability to get their gas to market. So we will build to meet our customers' needs, and we can meet all of the needs that they have today through our assets as we bring on the stabilization, the deethanizer. The ethane line, the additional 24-inch line on the West side and then TXP-1 at Oak Grove, we've got a great story of growth to tell and the ability to meet the customer needs.
Alan S. Armstrong:
So Brad, just to add a little color. That's a great job by Jim kind of describing the situation out there. But it is not as simple as just do I have processing capacity out there. It depends on do you have the trunk line laterals to be able to reach out and get the gas. Do you have the air permit requirements to set compression to pick up the gas? Do you have ethane, deethanization capacity to be able to not get constrained into the interstates and backup gas that way? And so it's a tremendous amount of planning required between the producers and the midstream companies to not have underutilized capacity but to be able to be drilling where the capacity is. And I would highlight a perfect example of that great planning that goes on between us and Cabot in the Northeast. And if you looked at the utilization of our facilities there, you would see it very high, and you'd also see a limited constrain limited to their activity, limited constrained production on Cabot's part, again, relative to their tremendous growth profile that they're on. And so that's a great example of the kind of planning that can be done and that we'd certainly try to encourage with customers. And as Jim mentioned earlier, he's had -- that's starting to be recognized because he's had customers coming into his office wanting to sit down and make sure that they've got capacity for things like some of this burgeoning Utica drilling that is really starting to gain some attention right there in the footprint of OVM.
James E. Scheel:
Yes. And I guess, and even a follow-up to Alan, as we talk about the Susquehanna Supply Hub or formerly ABA market area, up in the Northeast, our capacity will be going up towards the top end of that as we go through the course of 2014 into '15. And we're already thinking ahead of how do we continue to expand that capacity through compression in order to meet our customer needs across the board. Those investments in that incremental volume isn't in guidance but those discussions have already started taking place as working with our customers in order to facilitate all of their needs. And it is a complex issue. As Alan was pointing out, it's one that, I think, across the Northeast, we're getting much better at.
Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division:
Yes, that's great color. I appreciate those comments and the one -- I guess, the one final question, which kind of relates to the comments about the development of the dryer gas portion of the Utica. Do you think -- you mentioned that you have more of a 2 Bcf a day system in OVM, which I assume refers more to the aggregate gathering capacity. Do you think that you'll be more focused on gathering -- high-pressure gathering services as opposed to incremental processing once you're done with the Oak Grove build-out just due to the fact that the drill bit does seem to be moving towards the dryer areas around that kind of northern West Virginia area? And then just one final one, which is it looks like the kind of per Mcf margin implied by your guidance in Northeast G&P is significantly higher in the latter half of the year than it is currently. And is that just kind of the resulting higher fees that you're able to collect with stabilization, ethane and the addition of the trunk line that you've got laid out here in your presentation? And that's all.
James E. Scheel:
Okay. Well, there are a lot of questions there. Let me start out and let's make sure I don't miss one. Starting out as it relates to the opportunities around the dry Utica, I would say we still continue to be very excited about the wet Marcellus, obviously. We've built a wet system at OVM. It's one where we have the ability to continue to expand our cryo facilities in order to meet that need and maximize netbacks for our customers. Yes, the incremental improvement in fee-based revenue will come through both increased gathering, as well as the additional services provided to our customers. So that will improve our overall revenue position for OVM. As it relates to the dry gas area, I think we're perfectly positioned to go, in the near term, put some of that dry gas into our existing system. Obviously, we won't -- we'll be running that through the plant where we won't be getting any liquids, but with surplus plant capacity right now, we have the ability to do that. And let -- and work with our customers in order to help them identify what they've got. And as far as the resource potential in the dry area, we're all very excited about that potential to the extent we need to have a duplicate dry gas system built because I believe, again, I believe a lot in the wet area. And to the extent where we continue to build out that, it would really be a separate dry gas system. As we think about putting in some of the 24-inch lines, well, there is the potential, I guess, to repurpose some of our lines. Those will be -- that would be on our planning horizon as we talk to the customers. Again, this all really comes back to making sure we're planning with our customers about what they need and when they need it. I think that dialogue is beginning to open up as they learn more about this. And because of our great competitive position in that marketplace, I think we're well positioned to meet any of those requirements as they evolve. Again, a big dry gas build-out though is not contemplated in any of the numbers that you're seeing here today. I don't know if that was every one of the questions, but I think it was.
Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division:
No, that's great. And the only other one was just am I right in thinking that margin per Mcf is set to increase in latter portion of the year in the Northeast?
James E. Scheel:
Yes. Yes, it is because the margin will increase because of the additional services we're providing through OVM. In addition to that, we have some higher revenues coming from the recontracting around ABA.
Operator:
We'll hear next from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies.
Christopher P. Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Just one quick cleanup for me, and actually, it's probably for Don. And this is really just tied to NGL and pet chem. Lots of moving parts in the quarter with BI and the drop-down. But just wondering if you guys could quantify the DCF impact from the dropped assets for the period owned, and sort of how that compares to the guidance you gave us earlier in the year. I think you were looking for 130 to 160 on the full year and so just wondering how sort of initial 1 month of owned DCF sort of stacks up against that.
Donald R. Chappel:
I think our initial guidance, Chris, contemplated 3 months of ownership of PZ. And as it turned out, there was 1 full month of ownership because the drop-down happened a couple of months later than what we expected when we put out that guidance in the first place. The good news, Williams enjoyed those earnings for January and February instead, and the -- yes, the 1 month was about $15 million to $20 million.
Christopher P. Sighinolfi - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then you guys -- just quick follow-up on that. You guys had flagged some tie-in issues and third-party disruptions in 4Q up there. Just wondering if all that's resolved at this point.
John R. Dearborn:
Yes. That is a great question now. And yes, we did through the first quarter, but we're tight-lined to Suncor up there. They did have some operating issues at the upgrader, which reduced our volumes approximately by about 20%. At the end of the quarter, all of those issues were resolved, and we're back to full volume. So looking forward, we can expect Canada to deliver at its full potential.
Operator:
With no further questions in the queue, I'd like to turn the call back to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.
Alan S. Armstrong:
Okay, well, great. Thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning. As you can tell, a lot of excitement about the quarter and the growth prospects that we have in front of us. And we'd just say we look forward to seeing you at analyst day and sharing a little more of that with you and particularly as we look further in beyond '15. So thanks again for joining us, and we're excited -- we very much look forward to seeing you at the upcoming analyst day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining.